Treasury Financing Requirements 

 

(Projected) (Actuals) 

Deficit Funding (Def + / Surplus -) 201 206 

Means of Financing

Change in Cash Balance 32 11 Net Non-Marketable Financing -9 -8 Other * 22 -42 Net Marketable Financing 156 244 

Net Marketable Financing 156 244 ** 

Bills 208Nominal Notes 26TIPS -2Bonds 13

Notes:

Starting Cash Balance 57 57 

Ending Cash Balance 25 46 

* Includes SOMA redemptions, direct loan activity, changes in accrued interest, checks outstanding, minor miscellaneous transactions, discount and in** Excludes System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions of $53.5 billion in the Jan.-Mar. quarter and $27.2 billion in redemptions as announce

For the current fiscal year (as announced through April 25) SOMA has redeemed $119.9 billion in marketable Treasury securities.

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

 January - March 2008
Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupon 

Payments

May 15, 2008 74 21 May 31, 2008 22 4 June 15, 2008 0 1June 30, 2008 21 4 July 15, 2008 0 9July 31, 2008 20 3 August 15, 2008 43 26 August 31, 2008 22 4 
$ billions

Bills 2-under 5 years 5-10 years over 10 years Buybacks 5-10 years 20-30 years Totals

Fiscal Year Quarters

2003 1Q 20.5 68.6 -9.3 -4.2 0.0 7.0 0.0 82.6

2Q 66.3 59.6 -17.5 -3.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 111.3

3Q -27.3 78.1 12.8 -3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.3

4Q -9.6 62.7 23.0 -5.6 0.0 11.0 0.0 81.5

2004 1Q 10.6 44.1 62.2 -12.5 0.0 9.0 0.0 113.4

2Q 56.2 30.9 46.7 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.0 145.9

3Q -38.2 25.8 43.0 -8.4 0.0 9.0 0.0 31.3

4Q 14.7 16.7 40.6 -4.0 0.0 10.0 11.0 89.0

2005 1Q 41.7 20.4 27.2 -12.5 0.0 21.0 0.0 97.8

2Q 55.9 12.5 57.0 -2.3 0.0 10.0 11.0 144.7

3Q -135.7 17.5 28.9 -7.2 0.0 18.0 0.0 -77.2

4Q -9.2 7.3 48.4 -9.3 0.0 9.0 6.0 53.0

2006 1Q 49.6 10.1 21.9 -4.1 0.0 15.0 0.0 92.7

2Q 78.2 -5.4 54.3 10.1 0.0 9.0 11.8 159.3

3Q -125.3 -14.0 31.6 -3.5 0.0 19.0 0.0 -90.9

4Q -5.2 -14.4 34.1 11.6 0.0 10.6 8.2 48.9

2007 1Q 32.7 -21.5 16.2 -4.0 0.0 18.6 0.0 46.0

2Q 88.9 -30.2 56.8 9.8 0.0 -8.8 9.2 125.7

3Q -164.0 -33.8 36.3 6.8 0.0 16.1 0.0 -138.7

4Q 99.0 -37.7 24.8 13.8 0.0 8.0 7.3 116.4

2008 1Q 85.0 -60.2 90.7 -2.6 0.0 13.2 0.0 126.0

2Q 208.0 -16.6 42.2 13.3 0.0 -11.4 9.0 244.5

Note: Includes SOMA redemptions.

Totals may not add due to rounding.

Nominals TIPS

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing 
Fiscal Year $ billions

Quarter Savings Bonds Foreign Series State and Local Govt. Series Total

I 02 1.9 -1.0 -0.1 0.8

II -0.4 0.2 -5.2 -5.5

III -1.1 -0.7 1.7 -0.1

IV -1.4 -0.8 1.5 -0.7

I 03 -0.2 -1.3 9.1 7.6

II 0.1 -1.5 -1.0 -2.4

III 0.5 -0.6 -8.3 -8.4

IV 0.4 -0.7 7.9 7.6

I 04 0.5 -0.5 0.8 0.8

II -1.2 -0.8 6.5 4.5

III -1.5 -0.3 5.8 3.9

IV -2.1 -0.6 -3.3 -6.0

I 05 -1.4 0.0 2.5 1.1

II -1.9 0.2 18.3 16.6

III -1.7 -1.6 27.7 24.4

IV -2.3 0.1 18.5 16.3

I 06 -0.2 0.7 10.3 10.7

II -1.1 -0.4 -0.7 -2.2

III -2.7 -0.4 7.2 4.1

IV -3.6 0.0 -3.2 -6.8

I 07 -3.1 0.0 18.8 15.7

II -3.8 0.5 24.3 21.0

III -3.5 -0.5 19.7 15.7

IV -3.4 0.0 -5.1 -8.5

I 08 -2.4 0.0 -3.3 -5.7

II -2.8 1.9 -6.9 -7.8

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing From NonMarketable Issues 
Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issuance

ISSUANCE

Date Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10 yrs Bonds TIPS

12/31/80 61.2% 20.5% 10.8% 2.9% 4.6% 0.0%

3/31/81 61.6% 20.0% 10.7% 3.5% 4.3% 0.0%

6/30/81 61.2% 19.6% 11.7% 3.2% 4.2% 0.0%

9/30/81 61.0% 19.2% 12.6% 2.9% 4.3% 0.0%

12/31/81 62.7% 19.3% 11.3% 2.7% 4.0% 0.0%

3/31/82 61.3% 21.4% 10.5% 2.6% 4.1% 0.0%

6/30/82 61.2% 22.8% 9.7% 3.3% 3.0% 0.0%

9/30/82 61.0% 21.6% 11.5% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0%

12/31/82 61.3% 22.1% 11.0% 3.6% 2.1% 0.0%

3/31/83 60.0% 22.4% 11.4% 3.8% 2.4% 0.0%

6/30/83 58.0% 22.5% 12.4% 3.6% 3.5% 0.0%

9/30/83 58.1% 23.0% 10.8% 3.6% 4.4% 0.0%

12/31/83 57.0% 23.3% 10.7% 3.8% 5.2% 0.0%

3/31/84 57.0% 23.1% 10.5% 4.0% 5.4% 0.0%

6/30/84 55.4% 23.9% 10.9% 4.1% 5.7% 0.0%

9/30/84 56.4% 23.3% 10.7% 3.9% 5.6% 0.0%

12/31/84 55.7% 22.4% 12.6% 3.8% 5.6% 0.0%

3/31/85 56.4% 22.4% 11.6% 3.8% 5.7% 0.0%

6/30/85 55.7% 22.7% 11.8% 3.9% 5.9% 0.0%

9/30/85 54.9% 22.9% 11.9% 4.1% 6.1% 0.0%

12/31/85 55.1% 22.8% 11.8% 4.1% 6.2% 0.0%

3/31/86 53.9% 22.7% 12.8% 4.2% 6.3% 0.0%

6/30/86 53.7% 22.9% 12.9% 4.5% 6.0% 0.0%

9/30/86 54.0% 23.0% 12.7% 4.7% 5.6% 0.0%

12/31/86 54.6% 23.3% 11.9% 5.0% 5.2% 0.0%

3/31/87 53.0% 24.5% 12.3% 5.3% 4.9% 0.0%

6/30/87 51.8% 25.2% 12.7% 5.4% 5.0% 0.0%

9/30/87 53.5% 24.7% 11.7% 5.2% 4.9% 0.0%

12/31/87 54.4% 24.0% 12.3% 5.1% 4.2% 0.0%

3/31/88 53.8% 24.2% 12.7% 5.1% 4.3% 0.0%

6/30/88 52.8% 24.8% 12.8% 5.2% 4.4% 0.0%

9/30/88 53.9% 24.3% 13.4% 5.3% 3.0% 0.0%

12/31/88 55.4% 24.3% 11.3% 5.4% 3.6% 0.0%

3/31/89 54.6% 24.0% 12.4% 5.3% 3.6% 0.0%

6/30/89 53.5% 24.4% 12.8% 5.5% 3.8% 0.0%

9/30/89 52.9% 24.6% 12.0% 5.4% 5.2% 0.0%

12/31/89 53.1% 24.1% 12.6% 5.2% 5.0% 0.0%

3/31/90 53.9% 24.4% 11.4% 5.3% 5.1% 0.0%

6/30/90 54.4% 24.3% 11.2% 5.1% 4.9% 0.0%

9/30/90 54.9% 23.8% 11.7% 4.9% 4.7% 0.0%

12/31/90 56.6% 22.6% 11.9% 4.6% 4.4% 0.0%

3/31/91 55.7% 23.2% 12.1% 4.6% 4.4% 0.0%

6/30/91 53.2% 24.1% 13.2% 4.8% 4.6% 0.0%

9/30/91 54.1% 23.1% 13.7% 4.6% 4.5% 0.0%

12/31/91 54.3% 23.1% 13.5% 4.6% 4.5% 0.0%

3/31/92 53.7% 23.2% 14.3% 4.5% 4.3% 0.0%

6/30/92 54.5% 22.9% 14.4% 4.3% 4.0% 0.0%

9/30/92 54.6% 23.1% 14.5% 4.1% 3.7% 0.0%
12/31/92 55.3% 22.7% 14.6% 3.9% 3.5% 0.0%

3/31/93 53.8% 23.3% 15.4% 4.0% 3.5% 0.0%

6/30/93 53.4% 23.6% 15.7% 4.0% 3.3% 0.0%

9/30/93 55.3% 23.0% 14.4% 3.9% 3.3% 0.0%

12/31/93 56.7% 23.3% 13.5% 4.1% 2.4% 0.0%

3/31/94 56.5% 24.0% 12.8% 4.2% 2.5% 0.0%

6/30/94 57.1% 24.6% 12.0% 4.4% 1.8% 0.0%

9/30/94 56.3% 25.2% 12.1% 4.5% 1.8% 0.0%

12/31/94 57.5% 24.6% 11.7% 4.3% 1.8% 0.0%

3/31/95 57.9% 24.4% 11.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.0%

6/30/95 57.9% 24.3% 11.6% 4.4% 1.8% 0.0%

9/30/95 57.6% 24.5% 11.5% 4.5% 1.9% 0.0%

12/31/95 58.0% 24.1% 11.5% 4.5% 1.9% 0.0%

3/31/96 58.4% 23.7% 11.4% 4.6% 1.9% 0.0%

6/30/96 57.7% 24.2% 11.6% 4.6% 1.9% 0.0%

9/30/96 56.5% 24.6% 12.0% 5.2% 1.8% 0.0%

12/31/96 55.7% 24.4% 12.0% 5.5% 2.5% 0.0%

3/31/97 55.0% 24.6% 12.2% 5.4% 2.4% 0.5%

6/30/97 53.3% 24.9% 12.7% 5.5% 2.5% 1.2%

9/30/97 54.2% 24.0% 12.6% 4.8% 2.5% 1.9%

12/31/97 55.0% 23.3% 12.4% 4.2% 2.6% 2.6%

3/31/98 54.8% 22.8% 12.6% 4.3% 2.7% 2.7%

6/30/98 54.4% 22.4% 13.0% 4.6% 2.8% 2.9%

9/30/98 55.6% 22.0% 11.8% 4.7% 3.0% 2.9%

12/31/98 58.7% 20.9% 10.1% 4.6% 2.9% 2.9%

3/31/99 58.6% 21.8% 8.7% 4.8% 3.1% 3.1%

6/30/99 59.5% 22.3% 7.0% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

9/30/99 60.9% 21.7% 6.6% 4.9% 3.0% 2.9%

12/31/99 62.6% 21.2% 6.6% 4.8% 2.0% 2.8%

3/31/00 62.6% 21.2% 6.5% 5.1% 2.1% 2.6%

6/30/00 62.7% 21.4% 6.6% 5.0% 2.2% 2.1%

9/30/00 64.0% 20.9% 6.4% 5.0% 1.8% 1.9%

12/31/00 66.4% 19.5% 6.0% 4.7% 1.7% 1.7%

3/31/01 67.0% 18.9% 5.9% 4.7% 1.7% 1.7%

6/30/01 66.5% 18.9% 6.2% 4.9% 1.8% 1.7%

9/30/01 71.2% 16.8% 5.0% 4.1% 1.5% 1.4%

12/31/01 72.1% 17.2% 4.5% 3.8% 1.3% 1.2%

3/31/02 70.2% 19.9% 4.6% 3.7% 0.4% 1.2%

6/30/02 67.6% 22.6% 4.8% 3.5% 0.4% 1.1%

9/30/02 66.4% 23.4% 5.3% 3.6% 0.0% 1.3%

12/31/02 65.0% 24.3% 5.5% 3.8% 0.0% 1.4%

3/31/03 65.4% 23.5% 5.8% 4.0% 0.0% 1.3%

6/30/03 63.4% 24.6% 6.3% 4.4% 0.0% 1.3%

9/30/03 61.7% 25.0% 6.9% 5.1% 0.0% 1.4%

12/31/03 59.8% 25.3% 8.0% 5.5% 0.0% 1.4%

3/31/04 58.7% 25.2% 8.8% 5.7% 0.0% 1.6%

6/30/04 57.2% 25.2% 9.4% 6.1% 0.0% 2.1%

9/30/04 59.2% 23.7% 9.4% 5.3% 0.0% 1.9%

12/31/04 58.6% 23.8% 9.4% 5.1% 0.0% 2.5%

3/31/05 59.0% 23.3% 9.3% 4.9% 0.0% 2.4%

6/30/05 56.0% 24.6% 10.0% 5.2% 0.0% 3.1%

9/30/05 57.2% 23.9% 9.8% 5.1% 0.0% 3.1%

12/31/05 60.6% 21.4% 9.4% 5.0% 0.0% 2.7%

3/31/06 60.7% 21.3% 9.1% 4.7% 0.8% 2.6%

6/30/06 58.1% 22.3% 10.0% 4.9% 0.8% 2.8%

9/30/06 60.1% 20.5% 9.3% 4.8% 1.4% 2.8%

12/31/06 59.1% 21.2% 9.6% 4.7% 1.4% 3.0%

3/31/07 61.6% 19.0% 9.6% 4.7% 1.1% 3.1%

6/30/07 58.6% 19.9% 10.4% 5.3% 1.6% 3.2%

9/30/07 61.6% 17.7% 10.2% 5.2% 1.6% 2.8%

12/31/07 61.7% 17.4% 10.7% 5.3% 1.57% 2.5%

3/31/08 63.0% 16.4% 10.4% 5.4% 1.65% 2.3%
THE AVERAGE MATURITY OF TOTAL OUTSTANDING MARKETABLE DEBT AN

A 1-YEAR MOVING AVERAGE OF THE AVERAGE MATURITY OF ISSUANCE

Avg Mat Iss Average Maturity 

1-Yr Moving Average Total Outstanding

(months) (months)

12/31/80 74 48

3/31/81 73 48

6/30/81 74 50

9/30/81 76 51

12/31/81 77 50

3/31/82 77 50

6/30/82 64 50

9/30/82 57 49

12/31/82 55 47

3/31/83 56 47

6/30/83 69 48

9/30/83 78 50

12/31/83 83 51

3/31/84 84 52

6/30/84 86 53

9/30/84 86 54

12/31/84 86 55

3/31/85 87 56

6/30/85 88 57

9/30/85 89 58

12/31/85 90 59

3/31/86 89 60

6/30/86 90 61

9/30/86 89 62

12/31/86 89 62

3/31/87 88 64

6/30/87 88 65

9/30/87 88 66

12/31/87 83 66

3/31/88 82 66

6/30/88 82 67

9/30/88 67 66

12/31/88 74 67

3/31/89 73 67

6/30/89 74 68

9/30/89 90 69

12/31/89 89 69

3/31/90 90 69

6/30/90 89 69

9/30/90 87 69

12/31/90 86 68

3/31/91 85 68

6/30/91 85 69

9/30/91 84 68

12/31/91 85 68

3/31/92 82 67

6/30/92 80 68

9/30/92 77 67

12/31/92 75 67

3/31/93 74 67

6/30/93 73 67

9/30/93 73 67

12/31/93 61 65

3/31/94 62 65

6/30/94 51 64

9/30/94 51 64

12/31/94 51 63

3/31/95 51 62

6/30/95 51 61

9/30/95 52 62

12/31/95 52 60

3/31/96 52 60

6/30/96 52 60

9/30/96 50 61

12/31/96 62 61

3/31/97 60 61

6/30/97 61 62

9/30/97 62 62

12/31/97 63 63

3/31/98 65 63

6/30/98 75 65

9/30/98 84 67

12/31/98 85 65

3/31/99 87 65

6/30/99 88 67

9/30/99 81 68

12/31/99 78 67

3/31/00 79 67

6/30/00 67 69

9/30/00 64 70

12/31/00 62 69

3/31/01 62 69

6/30/01 62 71

9/30/01 60 68

12/31/01 58 66

3/31/02 42 65

6/30/02 41 64

9/30/02 32 62

12/31/02 25 60

3/31/03 26 59

6/30/03 27 58

9/30/03 27 57

12/31/03 28 56

3/31/04 29 55

6/30/04 31 55

9/30/04 34 55

12/31/04 33 54

3/31/05 37 53

6/30/05 37 55

9/30/05 36 54

12/31/05 36 53

3/31/06 44 53

6/30/06 44 54

9/30/06 54 55

12/31/06 54 54

3/31/07 52 54

6/30/07 58 56

9/30/07 59 56

12/31/07 65 55

3/31/08 66 55 Actual

9/30/08 63 55 Projected

9/30/09 60 55 Projected

9/30/10 58 55 Projected

9/30/11 56 55 Projected

9/30/12 56 55 Projected

9/30/13 58 55 Projected
Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding

Date Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10 yrs Bonds TIPS

9/30/1980 32.7% 20.3% 25.7% 7.6% 13.7% 0.0%

9/30/1981 32.4% 20.7% 26.3% 6.6% 14.0% 0.0%

9/30/1982 33.5% 21.3% 24.3% 8.4% 12.5% 0.0%

9/30/1983 33.1% 23.6% 22.2% 8.9% 12.2% 0.0%

9/30/1984 30.2% 25.5% 21.2% 9.8% 13.4% 0.0%

9/30/1985 28.1% 24.6% 22.1% 10.6% 14.6% 0.0%

9/30/1986 26.2% 23.4% 24.4% 10.6% 15.4% 0.0%

9/30/1987 22.6% 23.9% 25.1% 11.9% 16.6% 0.0%

9/30/1988 22.3% 22.2% 25.7% 13.0% 16.8% 0.0%

9/30/1989 21.6% 20.7% 25.6% 14.2% 18.0% 0.0%

9/30/1990 23.1% 20.1% 24.2% 14.4% 18.2% 0.0%

9/30/1991 23.8% 20.9% 23.3% 14.2% 17.8% 0.0%

9/30/1992 23.8% 21.2% 23.8% 13.8% 17.3% 0.0%

9/30/1993 22.8% 21.5% 24.8% 13.7% 17.2% 0.0%

9/30/1994 22.7% 21.7% 25.1% 13.9% 16.6% 0.0%

9/30/1995 22.7% 21.5% 25.9% 13.9% 16.0% 0.0%

9/30/1996 22.4% 21.5% 25.8% 14.4% 16.0% 0.0%

9/30/1997 20.5% 21.4% 25.7% 15.0% 16.8% 0.7%

9/30/1998 19.2% 19.7% 25.1% 15.9% 18.4% 1.8%

9/30/1999 20.3% 17.9% 22.2% 16.8% 20.0% 2.9%

9/30/2000 20.6% 16.2% 19.9% 18.2% 21.2% 3.8%

9/30/2001 25.2% 13.3% 16.8% 19.1% 21.0% 4.6%

9/30/2002 27.8% 18.2% 13.2% 17.4% 19.0% 4.4%

9/30/2003 26.5% 23.7% 11.5% 16.8% 16.7% 4.8%

9/30/2004 25.0% 24.4% 13.6% 16.9% 14.4% 5.8%

9/30/2005 22.6% 23.9% 15.9% 17.1% 12.8% 7.5%

9/30/2006 21.4% 21.5% 18.6% 16.7% 12.6% 9.3%

9/30/2007 21.7% 18.1% 20.4% 16.7% 12.7% 10.4%

9/30/2008 24.1% 16.7% 20.2% 16.6% 12.0% 10.5%

9/30/2009 23.3% 17.5% 20.2% 16.5% 11.6% 10.9%

9/30/2010 21.4% 17.2% 21.0% 17.5% 11.7% 11.2%

9/30/2011 20.1% 16.1% 22.2% 18.0% 11.9% 11.7%

9/30/2012 18.1% 15.1% 23.5% 19.0% 12.4% 11.9%

9/30/2013 18.3% 13.8% 23.6% 19.0% 12.7% 12.8%

Hypothetical projections

Totals may not add due to rounding
STATE & LOCAL SERIES--ISSUES, REDEMPTIONS AND

END OF QUARTER $billions

CY Gross Issues Redemptions Top Panel

1987 1Q 11.4 3.4

2Q 10.6 3.7

3Q 6.8 4.3

4Q 13.0 2.7

1988 1Q 7.8 4.3

2Q 7.0 2.7

3Q 5.0 4.3

4Q 7.9 4.0

1989 1Q 6.7 3.8

2Q 5.5 3.9

3Q 9.1 6.6

4Q 10.6 5.9

1990 1Q 7.0 6.7

2Q 7.2 6.5

3Q 5.9 8.9

4Q 5.9 6.3

1991 1Q 5.4 6.8

2Q 7.7 6.1

3Q 8.1 11.0

4Q 7.7 6.1

1992 1Q 8.1 10.0

2Q 10.8 6.7

3Q 8.3 12.6

4Q 5.5 9.5

1993 1Q 7.6 9.6

2Q 7.8 6.7

3Q 6.5 9.9

4Q 8.2 8.2

1994 1Q 7.2 11.1

2Q 4.5 6.6

3Q 2.8 8.8

4Q 2.2 7.0

1995 1Q 2.8 12.5

2Q 5.5 7.2

3Q 6.5 14.3

4Q 2.4 11.3

1996 1Q 0.0 8.0

2Q 6.5 5.1

3Q 7.3 9.5

4Q 11.0 5.4

1997 1Q 8.9 5.4

2Q 9.6 6.5

3Q 14.5 10.6

4Q 21.3 9.0

1998 1Q 23.5 8.4

2Q 25.8 10.0

3Q 21.6 12.1

4Q 10.5 9.8

1999 1Q 11.2 8.9

2Q 13.1 8.0

3Q 8.8 13.3

4Q 6.5 8.9

2000 1Q 4.6 8.4

2Q 8.3 10.0

3Q 5.0 12.3

4Q 8.1 10.4

2001 1Q 14.6 12.8

2Q 15.0 14.7

3Q 13.8 20.6

4Q 19.1 19.2

2002 1Q 14.3 19.5

2Q 18.6 16.9

3Q 26.8 25.2

4Q 35.1 26.0

2003 1Q 18.7 23.3

2Q 9.8 18.1

3Q 33.3 25.5

4Q 33.0 32.2

2004 1Q 30.2 23.7

2Q 41.2 35.5

3Q 29.3 32.5

4Q 23.9 21.4

2005 1Q 37.3 19.0

2Q 52.8 25.0

3Q 39.0 20.4

4Q 27.7 17.4

2006 1Q 14.3 15.0

2Q 21.4 14.2

3Q 16.1 19.3

4Q 35.5 16.7

2007 1Q 40.4 16.1

2Q 40.2 20.5

3Q 19.0 24.1

4Q 20.2 23.5

2008 1Q 15.2 22.1
Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 Months

Date

maturing in 12 

months

maturing in 24 

months

maturing in 

36 months

12/31/80 47.7% 63.0% 70.3%

3/31/81 48.2% 63.5% 70.5%

6/30/81 47.1% 62.1% 69.7%

9/30/81 46.7% 62.0% 70.4%

12/31/81 47.2% 62.2% 70.8%

3/31/82 47.4% 62.1% 70.7%

6/30/82 46.5% 62.1% 70.8%

9/30/82 46.4% 61.5% 69.5%

12/31/82 47.6% 63.1% 70.4%

3/31/83 47.2% 62.8% 69.8%

6/30/83 46.3% 62.4% 69.4%

9/30/83 45.5% 61.9% 69.1%

12/31/83 45.7% 61.0% 68.8%

3/31/84 45.3% 60.2% 68.6%

6/30/84 44.4% 59.5% 67.6%

9/30/84 44.6% 59.7% 66.9%

12/31/84 43.6% 59.5% 66.4%

3/31/85 43.5% 59.2% 65.8%

6/30/85 42.8% 58.2% 65.4%

9/30/85 42.0% 57.3% 64.9%

12/31/85 42.0% 56.8% 64.5%

3/31/86 41.4% 55.7% 63.5%

6/30/86 40.7% 55.5% 63.1%

9/30/86 39.9% 55.1% 62.7%

12/31/86 39.7% 55.0% 62.7%

3/31/87 38.0% 53.5% 61.7%

6/30/87 37.3% 52.7% 60.9%

9/30/87 36.9% 52.3% 60.8%

12/31/87 37.1% 52.3% 60.8%

3/31/88 37.0% 52.2% 60.4%

6/30/88 36.2% 51.4% 59.7%

9/30/88 36.5% 51.7% 59.9%

12/31/88 37.3% 51.9% 59.9%

3/31/89 36.8% 51.5% 59.6%

6/30/89 35.6% 50.6% 59.1%

9/30/89 36.1% 50.4% 58.9%

12/31/89 36.6% 50.5% 59.0%

3/31/90 36.7% 50.6% 59.3%

6/30/90 36.4% 50.7% 59.1%

9/30/90 36.7% 51.1% 59.6%

12/31/90 37.1% 51.8% 60.5%

3/31/91 37.1% 51.6% 60.0%

6/30/91 36.5% 50.8% 59.5%

9/30/91 36.9% 51.5% 59.8%

12/31/91 37.1% 52.0% 59.9%

3/31/92 37.5% 52.1% 59.7%

6/30/92 36.9% 51.7% 59.0%

9/30/92 36.9% 51.7% 58.6%
12/31/92 37.4% 51.7% 58.2%

3/31/93 36.9% 51.0% 58.4%

6/30/93 36.7% 50.4% 58.8%

9/30/93 36.4% 49.9% 58.7%

12/31/93 37.2% 50.3% 60.6%

3/31/94 36.8% 50.9% 60.6%

6/30/94 35.9% 51.1% 60.6%

9/30/94 35.4% 51.0% 60.9%

12/31/94 36.2% 52.2% 61.2%

3/31/95 36.8% 52.5% 62.4%

6/30/95 37.4% 52.9% 62.7%

9/30/95 37.7% 53.5% 63.6%

12/31/95 38.8% 53.7% 63.7%

3/31/96 39.2% 54.2% 63.6%

6/30/96 38.2% 53.7% 63.4%

9/30/96 37.4% 53.7% 63.1%

12/31/96 37.3% 53.7% 63.0%

3/31/97 37.7% 53.9% 63.1%

6/30/97 36.4% 52.9% 62.3%

9/30/97 36.7% 52.7% 61.7%

12/31/97 37.2% 52.8% 61.4%

3/31/98 37.3% 52.7% 60.9%

6/30/98 35.9% 51.6% 59.5%

9/30/98 35.8% 51.4% 59.2%

12/31/98 36.8% 52.1% 61.1%

3/31/99 37.6% 52.8% 61.1%

6/30/99 36.3% 51.9% 60.1%

9/30/99 36.4% 51.9% 60.8%

12/31/99 38.2% 53.5% 60.7%

3/31/00 38.9% 53.3% 61.2%

6/30/00 37.2% 51.6% 59.6%

9/30/00 37.4% 52.6% 59.8%

12/31/00 38.8% 52.7% 59.0%

3/31/01 39.4% 53.4% 58.4%

6/30/01 37.3% 51.7% 56.8%

9/30/01 40.6% 54.0% 58.4%

12/31/01 41.2% 55.0% 60.4%

3/31/02 41.6% 55.7% 60.4%

6/30/02 40.5% 56.2% 61.2%

9/30/02 40.3% 56.6% 61.1%

12/31/02 40.9% 58.4% 62.7%

3/31/03 41.9% 58.7% 63.0%

6/30/03 42.0% 58.7% 63.4%

9/30/03 41.5% 57.2% 62.6%

12/31/03 41.8% 56.6% 63.0%

3/31/04 41.5% 55.7% 62.9%

6/30/04 40.2% 54.9% 61.9%

9/30/04 39.1% 54.2% 61.6%

12/31/04 38.9% 54.4% 61.0%

3/31/05 38.9% 54.6% 61.6%

6/30/05 36.7% 52.4% 60.1%

9/30/05 36.7% 52.4% 59.9%

12/31/05 38.2% 52.0% 60.2%

3/31/06 39.0% 52.6% 61.1%

6/30/06 36.5% 50.7% 59.6%

9/30/06 36.2% 50.4% 59.7%

12/31/06 35.7% 50.1% 58.6%

3/31/07 36.4% 50.9% 59.4%

6/30/07 34.0% 48.9% 57.7%

9/30/07 35.7% 50.6% 58.3%

12/31/07 36.0% 50.2% 57.5%

3/31/08 38.2% 52.5% 58.6%

9/30/08 37.6% 52.5% 58.2%

9/30/09 37.0% 51.3% 56.7%

9/30/10 35.2% 48.8% 55.4%

9/30/11 33.5% 47.8% 56.1%

9/30/12 33.4% 48.2% 56.1%

9/30/13 33.7% 48.3% 56.5%

Projected are hypothetical
CY Net SLGs Bottom Panel

1987 1Q 8.0

2Q 7.0

3Q 2.6

4Q 10.3

1988 1Q 3.5

2Q 4.2

3Q 0.6

4Q 3.9

1989 1Q 2.9

2Q 1.6

3Q 2.6

4Q 4.7

1990 1Q 0.3

2Q 0.8

3Q -3.0

4Q -0.4

1991 1Q -1.4

2Q 1.6

3Q -2.9

4Q 1.6

1992 1Q -1.9

2Q 4.1

3Q -4.3

4Q -4.0

1993 1Q -1.9

2Q 1.2

3Q -3.4

4Q 0.0

1994 1Q -3.9

2Q -2.1

3Q -6.0

4Q -4.8

1995 1Q -9.7

2Q -1.8

3Q -7.8

4Q -8.9

1996 1Q -8.0

2Q 1.4

3Q -2.2

4Q 5.6

1997 1Q 3.5

2Q 3.1

3Q 3.9

4Q 12.3

1998 1Q 15.1

2Q 15.8

3Q 9.5

4Q 0.7

1999 1Q 2.3

2Q 5.1

3Q -4.5

4Q -2.4

2000 1Q -3.8

2Q -1.7

3Q -7.3

4Q -2.3

2001 1Q 1.8

2Q 0.3

3Q -6.8

4Q -0.1

2002 1Q -5.2

2Q 1.7

3Q 1.6

4Q 9.1

2003 1Q -4.6

2Q -8.3

3Q 7.9

4Q 0.8

2004 1Q 6.5

2Q 5.8

3Q -3.3

4Q 2.5

2005 1Q 18.3

2Q 27.7

3Q 18.5

4Q 10.3

2006 1Q -0.7

2Q 7.2

3Q -3.2

4Q 18.8

2007 1Q 24.3

2Q 19.7

3Q -5.1

4Q -3.3

08 1Q -6.9
FY 08 Deficit Estimates 

Primary Dealers* CBO 

Current: 414 396 Range based on average absolute forecast error 362-466 319-473 Estimates as of: April 08 March 08 

Note: Ranges based on errors from 2003-2007.

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate.
$ billions, Fiscal Year

Current Deficit Estimates Versus Historical Differences 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Plus 1 Std Dev (historical) in OMB estimate -340 -267 42 151 314 313

OMB FY2009 Budget deficit estimate -410 -407 -160 -95 48 29

Minus 1 Std Dev (historical) in OMB estimate -480 -547 -362 -341 -218 -255

Note: (-) Deficit, (+) Surplus

70 140 202 246 266 284

Source: Standard deviations and Budget estimates from OMB's 2009 Budget Table 20-7 and Table 16-2.