OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – August 2019 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Meetings – July 25 – July 26, 2019

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, July 22, 2019 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates #

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

# Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of 

Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account 

(SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions.

Low/High

July-September 2019 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

 Ending Cash Balance /

October-December 2019 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

FY 2019 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2020 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

FY 2019 /

FY 2020 /

FY 2021 /

Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2019 /

Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2020 /

Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2019 /

Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2020 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

10-year note (Aug) /

10-year note reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

30-year bond (Aug) /

30-year bond reopening (Sep/Oct) / /

2-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

5-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

7-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

30-year TIPS reopening (Aug) /

10-year TIPS reopening (Sep) /

5-year TIPS (Oct) /

2-year FRN reopening (Aug/Sep) /

2-year FRN (Oct) /

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates

52-week bill size (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Aug ‘19 – Oct ‘19 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2019 /

CMB issuance Aug ‘19 – Oct ‘19 (size/date) / / / /
Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 2 hours per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing 

data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. An agency may not conduct or sponsor, and a 

person is not required to respond to, a collection of information unless it displays a valid OMB control number. The valid OMB control number for this information is 

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Department of the Treasury (Office of Debt Management, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20220).

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic and fiscal forecasts for FY2019 and FY2020. Do you believe the current 

financing schedule is well-suited to meet Treasury’s financing needs though the end of FY2019? FY2020?

2. Treasury is currently using extraordinary measures to finance the government on a temporary basis, and has urged 

Congress to promptly raise or suspend the debt limit. Following previous debt limit suspensions, Treasury has 

needed to rebuild its cash balance in accordance with its prudent cash balance policy of maintaining a minimum 

of 5 days of liquidity subject to a $150 billion minimum. Restoring the cash balance is typically done via bill 

issuance, and Treasury makes efforts to limit any associated disruption to markets.

When do you expect the debt limit will be increased or suspended? What do you expect for Treasury’s cash 

balance and the level of bills outstanding at that time?

What is the market capacity for increased bill issuance without significant price adjustment or deviation from fair 

value (please specify what you consider to be a significant deviation from fair value, in basis points), and how 

rapidly do you expect Treasury to increase bill issuance? Specifically, how much cumulative increase in bills 

outstanding could the market digest and do you expect from Treasury over the following time periods following 

the debt limit resuspension:

Weeks Post Increase/Resuspension Market Capacity for Increase Expected Cumulative Bills Increase

4

8

13

Please explain how you derived the above estimates. When considering market effects, how do you evaluate

stock and/or flow factors? How do seasonal considerations influence your answer?

3. In recent years there has been increased focus, in particular by the Treasury Market Practices Group (TMPG), on 

potential risks associated with bilateral clearing and settlement arrangements in the Treasury market. What steps 

do you believe the official sector should take to address these risks? For example, in July 2019, the TMPG 

published updated best practice recommendations for market participants that addressed more widespread 

utilization of central clearing as a topic that should be evaluated by the official sector. Please comment on the 

potential costs and benefits of the official sector adopting policies that increase the utilization of central clearing

in the Treasury market.