Quarterly Refund

U.S. Departm

Office o

Office of Debt Management
Near-Term Financing Outlook 

Estimated net marketable borrowing for Q2 and Q3 FY 2010

• Net marketable borrowing in Q2 (January-March) is expecte

$392 billion. 

• Net marketable borrowing in Q3 (April-June) is expected to 

$268 billion. 

• These estimates do not include incremental borrowing needs 

result from a potential increase in issuance under the SuppleFinancing Program (SFP).

Office of Debt Management
• Nominal coupons 

raised the majority of ($ billions)

Treasury Marketable Financing

Q1-FY 2010 F

October 1, 2009 - December 31, 2009 October 1, 2008 

j y

cash in the first quarter of the fiscal year. 

• Supplementary 

Financing Program 

Issued Matured

Net SOMA 

Activity * 

Net Cash 

Raised Issued Matured

Bills (includes SFPs) $1,452.4 $1,651.4 $0.0 -$199.0 $6,920.5 $6,417.8 Nominal coupons $598.9 $153.5 $0.0 $445.5 $1,886.6 $640.7 

g g

(SFP) redemptions accounted for the majority of the pay down in bills during the quarter.

TIPS $14.0 $0.0 $0.0 $14.0 $58.5 $20.8 Total $2,065.3 $1,804.9 $0.0 $260.5 $8,865.6 $7,079.3 

* Note: Negative SOMA activity represents redemptions.  Positive SOMA activity represents additional issuance of securities, made possible by redemptions in maturing securities with the same settlement date; these are offsetting transactions and are net cash neutral.

• Large cash outflows 

on February 15 include maturing 3-, 5- and 10-year notes May 15

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows (including SOMA) 

Date Maturing Coupon Securities Coupon Payments 

February 15, 2010 57 27 February 28, 2010 29 5 

year notes. May 15

outflows include maturing 3- and 5-year notes.

February 28, 2010 29 5 March 15, 2010 15 1 March 31, 2010 32 5 April 15, 2010 47 2 April 30, 2010 33 5 May 15, 2010 38 21 

Office of Debt Management

y ,

May 31, 2010 32 5 
.

• Volatility in cash 150

175

$ Billions

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

Excluding SFPs

FY 2007FY 2008FY 2009FY 2010

Note: Data through J

Dec. 15 Jun. 15

balances continues to pose challenges. 

• Elevated cash balances 

at the end of December 50

75

100125

Apr. 15

2009 were related, in part, to repayments of TARP. 0

25

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 

Key Receipt Dates 

1st of Month – Individual withheld taxes Mar 15 Jun 15 Sept 15 Dec 15 Corporate Taxes

Key Outlay Dates 

1st of each month – Medicare, SSI, VA, 3rd of each month Main Social Security p

N k bl 569.3 600 

$ billions

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

"Net Cash" 

Fiscal Quarter 

Note: Includes SOMA redemptions and SFP's.

Mar. 15, Jun. 15, Sept. 15, Dec. 15- Corporate Taxes

Jan. 15, Apr. 15, Jun. 15, Sept. 15 Individual Non-withheld Taxes 

2nd/3rd/4th Wed of each month Soc. Sec. c

Feb. 15, May 15, Aug. 15, Nov. 15 InterFeb 1 - April 15 – Individual tax refunds 

• Net marketable 

borrowing for Q1 FY 2010 was $260 billion compared to $569 billion during the same 

period in the prior year 191 0

527.1

481.

250300350400450500550

Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPS

pp

period in the prior year. 

• SFP bills were paid 

down by $160 billion in Q1 FY 2010. 

97.8

144.2

52.3

92.5

158.0

45.0 41.9

125.7

105.2 86.8

191.0

-100

-50

0

50

100150200

Office of Debt Management

-78.5 -92.2

-138.7

-44.6

-250-200-150

100

I-05 II III IV I-06 II III IV I-07 II III IV I-08 II III IV I-09 II 
• State and Local 

24.4

21.0

253035

$billions 

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketable Is

Fiscal Quarter

State and LoSeries

Government Series Securities were paid down by $2.4 billion in Q1 FY 2010 Q1. This was the smallest pay d i th $3 3

1.1

16.6 16.3

10.7

4.1

15.7 15.7

05

101520 Savings Bon

Foreign Serie

down since the $3.3billion observed in Q1 FY 2008. 

-2.2

-6.8

-8.5

-5.7

-7.8

-15.1

-17.6

-11.9

-9.1

25

-20-15-10

-5 

• Treasury has reduced

90%

100%

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Marketable Issu

Fiscal Year

-25 

I 05 II III IV I 06 II III IV I 07 II III IV I 08 II III IV I 09 II 

Treasury has reducedreliance on bill financing over the past calendar year, moving from 84% in December 2008 to 70% in 

40%50%60%70%80%90%

Billsfollowleft‐side scale.

Couponsfo

December 2009. 

0%

10%20%30%

40%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 200

Office of Debt Management

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 8-10 yrs Bonds 

Note: Previous releases of Quarterly marketable issuance data were based on 4-quarter rolling averages aCMBs. This data is based on actual quarterly marketable issuance through December 31, 2009, including 
• Inflation-adjusted 

607080

GrossAnnual TIPS Issuance and AmountOutstand

30‐Year(LHS)20‐Year(LHS)10‐Year(LHS)5‐Year(LHS)

TIPS outstanding stood at $568 billion at the end of December 2009.

30405060

$ billions

Inflation Adjusted Outstanding (RHS)

1020

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2

Calendar Year

Year-over-Year Growth in Outstanding Coupon Securities

Semi-Monthly

Nominals TIPS

• Growth in nominal 

coupons outstanding slowed during the past quarter.

Note:DatathroughDecember31, 2009.

q

Rate

Office of Debt Management

Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Jan-09 
Debt Portfolio Projections

Assumptions used in the next 3 charts: Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2

estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally aestimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally a

auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Eyear TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of 31, 2009 and the outstanding level of bills on December 31, 2009. Th

f 30 or-year TIPS i b d th d t f 20 TIPS is based on the average announced amount for 20-ye

2009. 

• Projections exclude cash management bills.

• Projections assume Projections assume no change no change to future issuance patterns to future issuance patterns.Using the above assumptions, over the next 10 years:• A t it f t t l t t di d t it f i 

Average maturity of total outstanding and average maturity of issuanc

approximately 68 and 79 months, respectively. 

• The percent of debt with 3 years or less to maturity is projected to dec

Office of Debt Management
• Average maturity of total 

debt outstanding rose by 6 

hb h

8090

months 

Debt Maturity Measures 

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

months between March

2009 and December 2009, from 49 months to 55 months. 

506070203040

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

1/ Quarterly data are actuals through December 31, 2009. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter average2/ Quarterly data are actuals through December 31, 2009. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 

45%50%

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by 

Fiscal Year

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 

*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread propderived from hypothetical auction sizes. Excluding 30-year TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December 31, 2December 31, 2009. The initial size for 30-year TIPS is based on the average announced amount for 20-year TIPS in 2009. Projections exclu

• If future financing needs 

were spread proportionally following current issuance patterns, the proportion of debt composed of longerterm securities would 

25%30%35%40%45%

term securities wouldincrease. 

0%5%

10%15%20%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 201

Office of Debt Management

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 201

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 8-10 yrs Bonds 

*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread pderived from hypothetical auction sizes. Excluding 30-year TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December 3December 31, 2009. The initial size for 30-year TIPS is based on the average announced amount for 20-year TIPS in 2009. Projections ex
65%70%75%

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 

Maturing in 36 Months

• The percentage of debt 

maturing within the next three years is at historical lows. 

40%45%50%55%60%

Maturing in 24 Months

20%25%30%35%40%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 

Maturing in 12 Months

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 

*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proderived from hypothetical auction sizes. Excluding 30-year TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December 31, December 31, 2009. The initial size for 30-year TIPS is based on the average announced amount for 20-year TIPS in 2009. Projections excl

100

$ Billions

CouponsMaturing*

February15, 2010‐November 15, 2039

2 YR NOTE 3 YR NOTE 5 YR NOTE 7 YR NOTE 

*Based on 

• Maturing 2-, 3- and 5-

year notes will add to near-term financing needs. 

60708090

30 YR BOND 5 YR IIS BOND 10 YR IIS NOTE 20 YR IIS BOND 

20304050

Office of Debt Management

0

10

15‐Feb‐10

31‐Mar‐10

15‐May‐10

30‐Jun‐10

15‐Aug‐10

30‐Sep‐10

15‐Nov‐10

31‐Dec‐10

15‐Feb‐11

15‐Apr‐11

30‐Jun‐11

31‐Aug‐11

15‐Nov‐11

31‐Dec‐11

15‐Feb‐12

31‐Mar‐12

15‐May‐12

30‐Jun‐12

15‐Aug‐12

30‐Sep‐12

15

‐Nov‐12

31‐Dec‐12

15‐Feb‐13

15‐Apr‐13

31‐May‐13

31‐Jul‐13

30‐Sep‐13

30‐Nov‐13

31‐Jan‐14

31‐Mar‐14

15‐May‐14

15‐Jul‐14

31‐Aug‐14

15‐Nov‐14

15‐Jan‐15

15‐Jul‐15

15‐Jan‐16

31‐Mar‐16

31‐May‐16

31‐Jul‐16

30‐Sep

‐16

30‐Nov‐16

15‐Feb‐17

15‐Aug‐17

15‐Feb‐18

15‐Aug‐18

15‐Feb‐19

15‐Aug‐19
Additional Factors to Consider

• The rate of decline in year-over-year corporate tax receipts slow

FY 2010. In the past, changes in corporate tax receipts have led individual withheld and non-withheld receipts.

• Marketable financing needs remain volatile due to uncertainty s

projected revenues, non-marketable debt issuance and outlays rongoing recovery programs.

• Treasury’s current securities offerings provide flexibility to add

ran

g g e of borrowin

g scenarios.

Office of Debt Management
FY 2010 and 2011 Deficit and Borrowing Estimates 

Primary 

Dealers* C

FY 2010 Deficit Estimates 1 357 1 

• Primary dealers 

currently estimate a FY 2010 deficit of $1.357 trillion, approximately $200 

FY 2010 Deficit Estimates 1,357 1FY 2011 Deficit Estimates 1,121 FY 2010 Deficit Range 900-1750FY 2011 Deficit Range 750-1800FY 2010 M k t bl B i R 1000 1750 billion below the 

Administration’s projection.

FY 2010

Marketable 

Borrowing

Range 1000-1750

FY 2011 Marketable Borrowing Range 750-1600Estimates as of: Jan 2010 Jan * Based on Primary Dealer feedback on January 28, 2010. Deficit estimates are averages. 

2,000

($ billions)

Comparing Deficit Estimates for FY 2010 since February 200

• Recent deficit 

1,2001,4001,6001,800

OMB CBO Primary Dealers

projections have been relatively stable. 

200400600800

1,000

Office of Debt Management

0

February 09 April 09 June 09 August 09 October 09 De

Estimate Month
40%

Rolling 12-Month Growth Rates

• The pace of decline in 

year-over-year corporate tax receipts has slowed. 10%

20%30%

Corp TaxWH TaxNonWH Tax

-30%-20%-10%

0%

-50%-40%

Mar-82

Mar-83

Mar-84

Mar-85

Mar-86

Mar-87

Mar-88

Mar-89

Mar-90

Mar-91

Mar-92

Mar-93

Mar-94

Mar-95

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Office of Debt Management