Agenda – May 2016 Refunding 

Treasury Dealer Meetings – April 28 - April 29, 2016 

Dealer ___________________ 

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, April 25, 2016 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury officials this 

quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Marketable Borrowing Estimates 

 Central 

Estimate 

Range that would not 

surprise you 

 Low/High 

 April-June 2016 / 

 Ending Cash Balance / 

 July-September 2016 / 

 Ending Cash Balance / 

 FY 2016 Total Net Marketable Borrowing 

 FY 2017 Total Net Marketable Borrowing / 

 FY 2018 Total Net Marketable Borrowing / 

 

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

 FY 2016 / 

 FY 2017 / 

 FY 2018 / 

 Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2016 

 Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2017 

 Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2016 

 Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2017 

 

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates 

 3-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / / 

 10-year note (May) / 

 10-year note reopening (Jun/Jul) / / - / 

 30-year bond (May) / 

 30-year bond reopening (Jun/Jul) / / 

 2-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / / 

 5-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / / 

 7-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / / 

 10-year TIPS (Jul) 

 10-year TIPS reopening (May) 

 30-year TIPS reopening (Jun) 

 2-year FRN reopening (May/Jun) 

 2-year FRN (July) 

 

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates 

 (May/June/July) / / / / - / / 

 Total change in bills outstanding 5/16 - 7/16 / 

 Total change in bills outstanding FY 2016 / 

 CMB issuance May‘16 – Jul ‘16 (size/date) / / / / 

Discussion Topics 

1. Please discuss your latest economic and fiscal forecasts for FY2016 and FY2017. Do you believe the current financing 

schedule is well-suited to meet Treasury’s financing needs though the end of FY2016? FY2017? 

2. Please comment on the potential for alternative repo trading platforms, such as centrally cleared repo or direct repo. What 

are the pros and cons of such alternative platforms? Please elaborate. 

3. Please discuss the liquidity conditions in the Treasury market (on- and off-the-run) and other fixed income markets. Are 

there any notable trends? Please elaborate. 
Part 2: 

The Treasury Department’s Office of Debt Management (ODM) would like your perspectives on current Treasury auction sizes. 

This information would be used to help test ODM’s debt-issuance modeling assumptions, and does not reflect potential policy 

decisions. We appreciate your participation in a similar survey conducted in November 2015, and the aggregate response can be 

found online at http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Pages/dealer-agenda-survey.aspx. 

For each of the 14 securities that Treasury currently issues regularly, we would be interested in your views on the following 

matters: 

1) All else equal, what is the minimum auction size, per auction, needed to maintain benchmark liquidity? Specifically, 

what is the smallest auction size (weekly for bills, monthly for coupons) necessary to support “on-the-run” issue liquidity 

in the secondary market? 

2) All else equal, what is the maximum auction size, per auction, that could be issued without causing “significant yield 

deviations” from current fair value? This fair value could, for example, be as measured by your spline, or other 

analytical models. 

3) All else equal, what is the maximum change in auction size (+/- X $billions) that can be implemented between two 

consecutive new issuances without causing “significant yield deviations”? 

 

If you have any questions, please contact Dr. Allen Zhang, Senior Financial Modeler, at 202-622-2836. Please complete and 

submit the table below to DebtManagement@treasury.gov or Allen.Zhang@treasury.gov by 12:00 Noon ET on Monday 

April 25, 2016. 

Thank you very much for your continuing collaboration. 

Tranche Minimum Auction Size 

needed to maintain 

Benchmark Liquidity 

($bil) 

Maximum Auction Size that 

could be issued without causing 

significant yield deviations from 

fair value ($bil) 

Maximum change 

(+/-) in auction 

size between new 

issuances ($bil) 

Bills 

4-week 

13-week 

26-week 

52-week 

Coupons 

2-year 

3-year 

5-year 

7-year 

10-year 

30-year 

TIPS 

5-year 

10-year 

30-year 

FRNs 

2-year 

Additional Comments: