Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb

O
Office of Debt Management

Financing 

Summary of FY 2006 and Near Term Ou

 Net marketable borrowing for FY 2006 Q4 totaled $45 billio Net marketable borrowing for FY 2006 was $203 billion com

nearly $216 billion in FY 2005 and $380 billion in FY 2004

 FY 2006 net non-marketable borrowing was $6 billion versu

$58 billion in FY 2005

 FY 2006 deficit was $248 billion versus $319 billion for FY 2 FY 2007 Q1 and Q2 Outlook:

• Net marketable borrowing is estimated at $63 billion 

quarter and $175 billion next quarter
Office of Debt Management

 A surge in corporate tax 

receipts led to a higher than expected end of quarter cash balance.

 Net non-marketable 

issuance declined sharply from prior year record.

 Maturing securities and 

coupon payments result in large outflows on November 15.

Treasury Financing Requirements 

(Projected) (Actuals) 

Deficit Funding (Def + / Surplus -) 55 41 

Means of Financing

Change in Cash Balance 11 -6 Net Non-Marketable Financing -5 -7 Other* 19 9 Net Marketable Financing 30 45 

Net Marketable Financing 30 45 

Bills -5Nominal Notes 20TIPS 19Bonds 12

Notes:

Starting Cash Balance 46 46 Ending Cash Balance 35 52 

* Includes direct loan activity, changes in accrued interest, checks outstanding, minor miscellaneous transactions, discount and inflation accre

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

 July - September 2006

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coup

Payme

November 15, 2006 58 22 November 30, 2006 23 3 December 15, 2006 0 1 December 31, 2006 24 3 January 15, 2007 18 5 January 31, 2007 23 3 February 15, 2007 35 26 February 28, 2007 23 2 
Office of Debt Management

 For the year, receipts were 

up nearly 12 percent. Singleday corporate and total receipts reached an all-time high on September 15.

 Total net marketable 

borrowing for FY 2006 was $203 billion, the lowest level since FY 2002.

 For the second consecutive 

year, annual net bill issuance resulted in a pay down.

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

Calendar Quarter

17.8

-163.4

74.4

52.1

52.5

15.1

84.2

82.6

111.3

60.3 81.5

113.4

145.9

31.3

89.0

97.8

144.2

-7

-200-160-120

-80-40

0

4080

120160

I-01 II III IV I-02 II III IV I-03 II III IV I-04 II III IV I-05 

$ billions

Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPSBuybacks

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

102030405060708090

100

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju

$ billions

FY 2005FY 2006FY 2007

Note: Data t
Office of Debt Management

 Net nonmarketable issuance

for FY 2006 was sharply lower than the record amount reached in FY 2005. 

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketa

 Calendar Quarter

-8.0

-5.0

-10.1

-2.2 -1.4

-1.7

-10.6

0.8

-5.5

-0.1 -0.7

7.6

-2.4

-8.4

7.6

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.0

1.1

24.

16.6

-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I

00

II III IV I

01

II III IV I

02

II III IV I

03

II III IV I

04

II III IV I

05

II 

$billions

State and Local Govt. SeriesSavings BondsForeign Series
Office of Debt Management

Debt Portfolio

Over the next 5 years Average maturity of total outstanding debt rises to 58 months 

 Average maturity of issuance stabilizes between 63-64 months 

 The percent of debt maturing with 3 years or less to maturity de

percent

Assumptions used in the next 5 charts: Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across 

securities to maintain constant maturity of issuance, based on hy

initial auction sizes 

 OMB 2007 MSR estimates used for fiscal year projections
Office of Debt Management

 In moving to quarterly bonds, 

we are showing 30-yearissuance at the high end of the $20-30 billion guidance we initially provided. This is no indication of actual issuance sizes in 2007. Those will be determined based on financing needs and market consultation in January.

 As projected financing needs 

fall, current issuance patterns will lead to a lower proportion of short-dated securities.

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by 

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

Projections for FY 2007-2011 are based on OMB 2007 MSR Budget estimates. Future residual financing across auctioned securities to maintain constant maturity of issuance.

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 

months

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

Net financing projections for FY 2007-2011 are based on OMB 2007 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs are 

securities to maintain constant maturity of issuance.

1/ Quarterly data are actuals through September 30, 2006. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter avera2/ Quarterly data are actuals through September 30, 2006. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 
Office of Debt Management

 Debt with a residual maturity 

of 3 years or less stabilizes near the lower end of historical ranges. 

 Issuance across all sectors 

remain in line with historic trends.

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Projections for FY 2007-2011 are based on OMB 2007 MSR Budget estimates. Future residual financing nacross auctioned securities to maintain constant maturity of issuance.

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issu

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bond

Note: Data through September 30, 2006.
Office of Debt Management

 A major portion of net 

marketable borrowing through FY 2011 is projected to be met by TIPS and intermediate notes.

Treasury Annual Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Year

-109 -100

-213 -97

204 336

379

216

203

314

1

-300-250-200-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350400450

FY 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2

$ billions

Projec
Office of Debt Management

Uncertainty

 OMB estimates project declining borrowing needs for the next 

 If the forecast errors reverse, however, the current issuance patt

heavy reliance on bills in early FY 2007. Given the reduction in 

recently, we believe the bill sector could accommodate negative fiscal shocks.
Office of Debt Management

 Primary dealer and CBO 

deficit estimates are lower than OMB MSR estimates.

 Current coupon pattern and 

issuance amounts will provide approximately $183 billion of new financing in FY07.

FY 07 Deficit Estimates 

Primary Dealers* 

Current: 280 Range based on average absolute forecast error 180-380 1

Estimates as of: Oct 06 

Note: Ranges based on errors from 1997-2006.

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate.

Financing Residuals Given Current Issuance Calendar 

Assumes current coupon issuance pattern and issuance amount-- Weekly bill issuance at leve

outstanding FY $ amounts equal to September 30, 2006 total outstandin

-350-250-150

-50

50

150250350450550

2007 2008 2009 2010 

Fiscal Years

$ billions

Net financing implied by FY2007 

OMB MSR deficit forecast

Net financing plus average absolute 

error in OMB estimate

Net financing

minus avg. absolute error in OMB est.

Bars indicate estimated change in financing required in given year for different deficit outcomes

Note: Average historical errors were estimated with a linear least-squares regression using OMB's budget forecasts since the 1989 Budget and the MS
Office of Debt Management

Capital Markets

 Reduced Treasury bill issuance and higher private sector activit

Treasury’s share of the money market
Office of Debt Management

 The share of total shortterm Treasuries 

outstanding fell in the second quarter of CY 2006. 

 This was a result of 

declines in both outstanding bills and coupons with less than a year to maturity coupled with a rise in open market paper outstanding.

 As a percentage of total 

privately held Treasury debt, both foreign holdings and official holdings at the FRBNY increased marginally over the past quarter.

Outstanding Short-term Marketable Treasury Securities as a Percentag

Market Instruments

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20

Calendar Quarters

Short-term Marketable Treasuries = Treasury bills and Treasury coupon securities with 1 year or less remaMoney Market = Short-term Treasury securities, commercial paper, and open market paper.Sources: U.S. Treasury and U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors Flow of Funds statistical release Z.

Foreign Holdings as a Percent of Total Privately Held Public 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 

Calendar Year

Percent

Estimated foreign holdings as % of private. 2/Foreign and International Institutional Holdings at FRBNY as% of private. 3/

*

Benchmark Revisions

1/ Privately held debt excludes holdings of the Federal Reserve System.2/ Data through August 31, 2006. 3/ Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY statistical release H4.1.

* *
Office of Debt Management

Auction Release Time Performance 

 No current quarter exceptions to Treasury’s 2 minute (+/- 30 seconds) target auction re

Auction Release Times for November 2005 - October 2006

Data through October 26, 2006

0:000:301:001:302:002:303:003:304:004:305:00

11/01/05 11/28/05 12/19/05 01/17/06 02/08/06 03/06/06 03/29/06 04/24/06 05/15/06 06/08/06 07/10/06 08/01/06 08/29/06 

(In Minutes and Seconds)

Target release time