Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb
Office of Debt Management

Financing 

Near Term Outlook 

 FY 2007 Q3 and Q4 Outlook:

• We estimate a net marketable pay down of $145 billio

quarter and net marketable borrowing of $43 billion quarter

• Strength in tax receipts and higher than expected net 

issuance are leading to lower financing needs 
Office of Debt Management

 Net non-marketable 

financing, driven by state and local government securities issuance, remains well above expectations.

 Maturing securities and 

coupon payments result in large outflows on May 15 and August 15.

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coup

Payme

May 15, 2007 55 22 May 31, 2007 21 3 June 15, 2007 0 1 June 30, 2007 20 3 July 15, 2007 0 9 July 31, 2007 18 3 August 15, 2007 63 27 August 31, 2007 19 4 

Treasury Financing Requirements 

(Projected) (Actuals) 

Deficit Funding (Def + / Surplus -) 181 178 

Means of Financing

Change in Cash Balance 21 25 Net Non-Marketable Financing 12 21 Other* 8 7 

Net Marketable Financing 141 126 

Net Marketable Financing 141 126 

Bills 89Nominal Notes 27TIPS 0Bonds 10

Notes:

Starting Cash Balance 31 31 Ending Cash Balance 10 6 

* Includes direct loan activity, changes in accrued interest, checks outstanding, minor miscellaneous transactions, discount and inflation accretion on Treasuries.Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

 January - March 2007
Office of Debt Management

 Cash balances remain 

volatile, particularly during the April tax season.

 April 24, 2007 individual 

non-withheld income tax receipts set a single day record, surpassing the previous record by 34 percent.

 Total net marketable 

borrowing for Q2 FY 2007 was nearly $126 billion, the lowest Q2 borrowing since FY 2003.

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Quarter

52.1

52.5

15.1 84.2

82.6

111.3

60.3

81.5

113.4

145.9 31.3

89.0 97.8

144.2

-78.5

52.3 92.5

-200-160-120

-80-40

0

4080

120160200

I-02 II III IV I-03 II III IV I-04 II III IV I-05 II III IV I-06 

$ billions

Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPSBuybacks

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

102030405060708090

100

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju

$ billions

FY 2005FY 2006FY 2007

Note: Data 
Office of Debt Management

 Net SLGS issuance of $24 

billion in Q2 2007 was the highest since Q3 2005. 

 Shares of bill issuance rose to 

nearly 58 percent ahead of the April tax season.

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issua

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 20

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bonds 

Note: Data through March 31, 2007.

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketab

 Fiscal Quarter

0.8

-5.5

-0.1 -0.7

7.6

-2.4

-8.4

7.6

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.0

1.1

16.6

24.4

16.3

10.7

-2.2

-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I 02 II III IV I 03 II III IV I 04 II III IV I 05 II III IV I 06 II 

$billions

State and Local Govt. SeriesSavings BondsForeign Series
Office of Debt Management

Debt Portfolio

Assumptions used in the next 4 charts: Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across aucti

securities, based on hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes in the pr

and assuming the outstanding level of bills at September 30, 2006

 OMB 2008 Budget deficit estimates, except internal Treasury estimat

fiscal year

Using the above assumptions, over the next 5 years: Average maturity of total outstanding debt rises to 58 months  Average maturity of issuance settles to around 61 months  The percent of debt maturing with 3 years or less to maturity declines 
Office of Debt Management

 Average maturity of issuance 

temporarily rises following the introduction of quarterly bond issuance and assumed redemption of callable issues.

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, current issuance patterns would lead to a larger share of longer-dated securities and TIPS.

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by 

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

Net financing projections for FY 2007-2012 are based on OMB 2008 Budget estimates except internal FY 2007 deficit esti

spread proportionally across auctioned securities, based on hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes in the prior quarter and 

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 200

months

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

Net financing projections for FY 2007-2012 are based on OMB 2008 Budget estimates except internal FY 2007 deficit estim

spread proportionally across auctioned securities, based on hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes in the prior quarter and 

1/ Quarterly data are actuals through March 31, 2007. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter average. 2/ Quarterly data are actuals through March 31, 2007. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 
Office of Debt Management

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, projected short term debt rollover percentages will fall below historical ranges. 

 Based on OMB fiscal 

projections, net marketable borrowing will decline from FY 2008-2012. 

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 200

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Net financing projections for FY 2007-2012 are based on OMB 2008 Budget estimates except internal FY 2007 deficit est

spread proportionally across auctioned securities, based on hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes in the prior quarter an

Treasury Annual Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Year

-109 -100

-213 -97

204 336

379

216

203

125

261

20

-300-250-200-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350400450

FY 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200

$ billions

BuybackOver 10 Over 10 5-10 yea5-10 yea2-under Bills

Projected are 

Net financing projections for FY 2007-2012 are based on OMB 2008 Budget estimates except internal FY 2007 deficit estimate. 

spread proportionally across auctioned securities, based on hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes in the prior quarter and Septe
Office of Debt Management

Uncertainty

 OMB estimates declining borrowing needs over the next five ye

return to surplus in FY 2012

 Volatility in projected receipts and continued strength in net non

marketable issuance could lead to greater variation in bill and cissuance
Office of Debt Management

 Strength in receipts have 

led to sharply lower deficit estimates.

 Current coupon pattern 

and issuance amounts will provide approximately $110 billion of new financing in FY07.

FY 07 Deficit Estimates 

Primary Dealers* 

Current: 184 Range based on average absolute forecast error 122-246 Estimates as of: Apr 07 

Note: Ranges based on errors from 2002-2006.

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate.

Financing Residuals Given Current Issuance Calendar 

Assumes current coupon issuance pattern and issuance amount-- Weekly bill issuance at levels 

outstanding FY $ amounts equal to September 30, 2006 total outstanding

-350-250-150

-50

50

150250350450550

2007 2008 2009 2010 

Fiscal Years

$ billions

Net financing implied by FY2008 

OMB Budget deficit forecast

Net financing plus average absolute 

difference in OMB estimate

Net financing

minus avg. absolute difference in OMB 

Bars indicate estimated change in financing required in given year for different deficit outcomes

Note: FY 2007 net financing is an internal Treasury estimate.Source: Average historical differences between estimates and actual deficit or surplus are from OMB's 2008 Budget Table 20-7.