Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb

Office of Debt Management
Financing 

Near Term Outlook 

E ti t d k t bl b i Estimated marketable borrowing

• $406 billion July-September • $486 billion October-December• Increased stimulus related expenditures and declining re

primarily related to withheld taxes drive borrowing cost

coming quarters. coming quarters.

Office of Debt Management
($ billions)

Treasury Marketable Financing

October 1, 2008 - June 30, 2009 October 1

Q1-Q3 FY 2009 

• Cash raised in FY 2009 

year to date totals nearly $1.4 trillion.

Issued Matured

Net SOMA 

Activity * 

Net Cash 

Raised Issued Mat

Bills (includes SFP's) $5,291.2 $4,774.6 $0.0 $516.6 $4,632.9 $4,1Nominal coupons Nominal coupons $1,325.8 $1,325.8 $472.0 $0.0 $853.8 $814.6 $62TIPS $44.2 $20.8 $0.0 $23.4 $61.9 $2Total $6,661.3 $5,267.4 $0.0 $1,393.8 $5,509.5 $4,7

* Note: Negative SOMA activity represents redemptions.  Positive SOMA activity represents additional issuance of securities, made possible by redemptions in maturing securities with the same settlement date; these are offsetting transactions and are net cash neutral.

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Maturing Coupon

• Large cash outflows 

on August 15 and

Date

Maturing Coupon

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupo

Paymen

August 15, 2009 61 27 

on August 15 and A t 31 2009 19 4 

November 15 are due to interest payments and maturing 3-, 5-, and 10-year notes as well as Treasury’s last 

August 31, 2009 19 4 September 15, 2009 15 1 September 30, 2009 20 4 October 15, 2009 14 3 October 31 2009 21 4 

Office of Debt Management

y

callable 30-year bonds. October 31, 2009 21 4 

November 15, 2009 38 21 November 30, 2009 21 4 
150175

$ billions

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

FY 2007 

Note: Data through July 28, 2009.

Excludes Supplementary Financing Program. As of July 28 Treasury has almost $200 billion held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• Volatility of cash balances 

continues to pose challenges.

5075

100125

0

25

50

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 

Key p Recei t Dates Key Outlay Dates 

1st of Month – Individual withheld taxes 

Mar. 15, Jun. 15, Sept. 15, Dec. 15- Corporate Taxes Jan. 15, Apr. 15, Jun. 15, Sept. 15 Individual Non-withheld Taxes 

1st of each month – Medicare, SSI, 3rd of each month Main Social Secu

2nd/3rd/4th Wed of each month Soc. S

Feb. 15, May 15, Aug. 15, Nov. 15 IFeb 1 - April 15 – Individual tax ref

600 

$ billions

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

"Net Cash" 

Fiscal Quarter 

• Net marketable borrowing for 

Apr-June was a record for a third fiscal quarter and marks the first time that net cash was raised in this quarter since 2004 191 0

5

250300350400450500550600

Over 10 year TIPS Over 10 years5-10 year TIPS 5-10 years2-under 5 years Bills

Note: Includes SOMA redemptions and SFP's.Note: Includes SOMA redemptions and SFP's.

raised in this quarter since 2004. 

97.8

144.2

52.3

92.5

158.0

45.0 41.9

125.7

105.2 86.8

191.0

-100

-50

0

50

100150200

Office of Debt Management

-78.5 -92.2

-138.7

-44.6

-250-200-150

I-05 II III IV I-06 II III IV I-07 II III IV I-08 II III 
• For the eighth consecutive 

24.4

21.0

2530

$billions 

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketa

Fiscal Quarter

quarter, net nonmarketable issuance was negative, led by continued weakness in net issuance of State and Local Government Series S iti

4.5 3.9

1 1

16.6 16.3

10.7

4.1

15.7 15.7

5

101520 St

GoSaFo

Securities. 

• Savings Bonds have 

experienced net outflows for twenty-two consecutive 

t

0.8

-6.0

1.1

-2.2

-6.8

-8.5

-5.7

-7.8

15

-10

-5

0

quarters. -

-20-15

I 04 II III IV I 05 II III IV I 06 II III IV I 07 II III IV I 08 II 

80% 

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issuance

Fiscal Year

• Treasury continues to 

gradually transition from bill issuance to coupon 

40%50%60%70%

bill issuance to couponissuance. 

%

10%20%30%40%

Office of Debt Management

0% 

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 200

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bonds 

Note: Data are a 4-quarter rolling average through June 30, 2009. Excludes CMB's.
$70$80

$ Billions

TIPS Issuance and Outstanding

Fiscal Year

30-Y 20-Y 5-Y 10-Y Inflation-Adjusted Outstanding (rhs) Par 

Note: Data through June 2009

• The rate of growth in 

par outstanding TIPS has moderated. 

$40$50$60

Note: Data through June 2009.

has moderated.

$10$20$30

$0 

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 

Year-over-Year Growth Rates

• Nominal coupon 

i hi d

Noms TIPs

issuance has increased

in response to fiscal needs.

Rate

Office of Debt Management

Oct-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 

Amount Outstanding to Period ending ...
Debt Portfolio Considerations

Assumptions used in the next 3 charts:• Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally acros

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auc

which are based on announced coupon amounts as of July 23, 2assume the outstanding level of weekly bills on June 30, 2009.

• Projections exclude cash management bills.• Assumes no change to future issuance patterns.Using the above assumptions, over the next 10 years:• Average maturity of total outstanding and average maturity of 

Average maturity of total outstanding and average maturity of 

settle to about 68 and 78 months, respectively. 

• The percent of debt with 3 years or less to maturity declines to 

Office of Debt Management
8090

months 

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

• As expected, average 

maturity of marketable debt outstanding is projected to rise over the coming years. 

6070304050

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

1 Quarterly data are actuals through June 30, 2009. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter average. 

20 

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2

*Net financing projections for FY 2009-2019 are based on OMB 2010 Budget estimates released May 2009. Future residual financing nesecurities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of July 23, 2009 and a2009. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts. 

Q y g , y pj q g

2 Quarterly data are actuals through June 30, 2009. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 

50% 

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by 

Fiscal Year

• If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, current pattern issuance would lead 

%

30%35%40%45%

pattern issuance would lead

to steadily increasing coupon issuance greater than 5 years in tenor as a share of the portfolio.

5%

10%15%20%25%

Office of Debt Management

0% 

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

*Net financing projections for FY 2009-2019 are based on OMB 2010 Budget estimates released May 2009. Future residuaacross auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced coupon amoutstanding level of bills on June 30, 2009. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts. 
60%65%70%75%

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 M

Maturing in 36 Months

• If future financing 

needs are spread proportionally, the amount of debt rolling over within the next 

35%40%45%50%55%

Maturing in 24 Months

three years is projected to fall considerably.

20%25%30%35%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 201

Maturing in 12 Months

*Net financing projections for FY 2009-2019 are based on OMB 2010 Budget estimates released May 2009. Future residual finacross auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced coupon amouout t di l l f bill J 30 2009 All tstanding level of bills on June 30, 2009. All proj ti ec ons excl d CMB i d t i t lude CMB issuance and maturing amounts. 

7080

$ Billions

Coupons Maturing*

August 15, 2009-May 15, 2039

7 YR NOTE 5 YR NOTE 5 YR IIS NOTE 30 YR IIS BOND 30 3 YR NOTE 20 YR IIS BOND 2 YR NOTE 10 YR NOTE 10 

*Based on coupon sec

• Maturing 2-year, 3-

year and 5-year notes lead to increased near and medium

5060

In the next 5 years, 67 days will have maturities greater than $20 billion and 38 days greater than $30 billion.

near- and mediumterm financing needs. 

203040

Office of Debt Management

0

10

15-AUG-2009

15-SEP-2009

15-OCT-2009

15-NOV-2009

15-DEC-2009

15-JAN-2010

15-FEB-2010

15-MAR-2010

15-APR-2010

15-MAY-2010

15-JUN-2010

15-JUL-2010

15-AUG-2010

15-SEP-2010

15-OCT-2010

15-NOV-2010

15-DEC-2010

15-JAN-2011

15-FEB-2011

31-MAR-2011

30-APR-2011

30-JUN-2011

15-AUG-2011

30-SEP-2011

15-NOV-2011

15-DEC-2011

15-JAN-2012

15-FEB-2012

15-MAR-2012

15-APR-2012

15-MAY-2012

15-JUN-2012

15-JUL-2012

15-AUG-2012

30-SEP-2012

15-NOV-2012

31-DEC-2012

15-FEB-2013

31-MAR-2013

30-APR-2013

31-MAY-2013

15-JUL-2013

15-AUG-2013

30-SEP-2013

15-NOV-2013

31-DEC-2013

31-JAN-2014

28-FEB-2014

15-APR-2014

15-MAY-2014

30-JUN-2014

15-AUG-2014

15-JAN-2015

15-MAY-2015

15-AUG-2015

15-JAN-2016

29-FEB-2016

30-APR-2016

31-MAY-2016

15-JUL-2016

15-NOV-2016

15-FEB-2017

15-JUL-2017

15-NOV-2017

15-FEB-2018

15-JUL-2018

15-NOV-2018

15-FEB-2019
Additional Factors to Consider

• Increasing volatility in receipts, outlays related to fiscal stimulu

financial market stabilization programs, could lead to increased marketable financing needs.

• Corporate tax receipt declines may signal near term declines in 

recei

p g t cate

gories.

• Treasury must maintain its flexibility to address potential borrow

scenarios given the range of borrowing estimates by primary descenarios given the range of borrowing estimates by primary de

2010.

Office of Debt Management
30%

40%

Rolling 12-Month Growth Rates

Corp TaxesWH TaxesnWH Taxes

• Tax receipts continue 

to decline.

0%

10%20%

-30%-20%-10%-40%

Mar-82

Jul-82

Nov-82

Mar-83

Jul-83

Nov-83

Mar-84

Jul-84

Nov-84

Mar-85

Jul-85

Nov-85

Mar-86

Jul-86

Nov-86

Mar-87

Jul-87

Nov-87

Mar-88

Jul-88

Nov-88

Mar-89

Jul-89

Nov-89

Mar-90

Jul-90

Nov-90

Mar-91

Jul-91

Nov-91

Mar-92

Jul-92

Nov-92

Mar-93

Jul-93

Nov-93

Mar-94

Jul-94

Nov-94

Mar-95

Jul-95

Nov-95

Mar-96

Jul-96

Nov-96

Mar-97

Jul-97

Nov-97

Mar-98

Jul-98

Nov-98

Mar-99

Jul-99

Nov-99

Mar-00

Jul-00

Nov-00

Mar-01

Jul-01

Nov-01

Mar-02

Jul-02

Nov-02

Mar03

Central Dealer Estimates 

F C A ti O th N t 3 M th

• Primary dealers 

estimate that increases i i

30354045

s

For Coupon Auctions Over the Next 3 Months

Avg of High EstAvg of Central EstAvg of Low Est

in coupon sizes can 

address additional borrowing needs.

5

10152025

$ Billions

Office of Debt Management

2-Year Aug

2-Year Sep

2-Year Oct

3-Year Aug

3-Year Sep

3-Year Oct

5-Year Aug

5-Year Sep

5-Year Oct

7-Year Aug

7-Year Sep

7-Year Oct

10-Year Aug

10-Year (r) Sep

10-Year (r) Oct
2,350

Primary Dealer Forecasts 

for FY09 Budget Deficit (central estimates)

• FY 2009 budget deficit 

estimates by primary dealers have risen significantly since last 

1,7501,9502,150

MaxAverageMin

year, but the range has narrowed.

950

1,1501,3501,550

$ Billions

Min

550750

Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 

Primary Dealer Forecasts 

f FY10B d tD fi it( t l ti t )

• Primary dealer estimates 

for FY 2010 remain 1,450

1,6501,8502,050

for FY10 BudgetDeficit (central estimates)

widely dispersed.

850

1,0501,250

,

$ Billions

MaxAverageMin

Office of Debt Management

450650

Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 
FY 09 Deficit Estimates 

Primary 

Dealers* 

• Primary dealers 

currently estimate a FY 2009 deficit of over $1.6 trillion, slightly below recent government 

Current: 1644 Range based on average absolute forecast error** 1605-1683 17Estimates as of: July 09 JFY 2009 Marketable Borrowing Range*** 1500-2050 projections. FY 2009 Marketable Borrowing Range 1500 2050 FY 2010 Marketable Borrowing Range*** 1000-1600

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate. Based on Primary Dealer feedback on July 30, 2009.** Ranges based on errors from 2004-2008.*** Based on Primary Dealer feedback on July 30, 2009.

1,8002,000

($ billions)

Comparing Deficit Estimates for FY 2009 since February 

• Fiscal deficit projections 

remain elevated and volatile. 1,000

1,2001,4001,600

OMB CBO Primary Dealers

400600800

1,000

Office of Debt Management

0

200

February 08 April 08 June 08 August 08 October 08 December 08 February 09 

Estimate Month