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### 1



## Appendix F

Draft EMFAC Modeling Change Technical Memo

SUBJECT: UPDATING ESTIMATES OF VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED

AND SPEED DISTRIBUTIONS

LEAD: PAM BURMICH and AGNES DUGYON

SUMMARY

From November 2004 through May 2005, transportation planning agencies (TPAs) submitted motor vehicle activity data to the Air Resources Bo ard (ARB) to be used in the 2005 update to the draft working version EMFAC2007 model. The TPA s represented the major urban areas of California. The activity data included vehicle mil es traveled (VMT) and the distribution of VMT by speed and, in some cases, by time period. State wide, the VMT update caused a 3% decrease in ROG emissions and a 6% decrease in NOx emissions in 2002 relative to VMT calculated with vehicle registration and smog check data. The update to speeds caused a 2% decrease in ROG emissions and a 1% decrease in NOx. This memorandum summarizes the TPA data submitted, the quality assurance data revi ew process, and emissions impacts of VMT and speeds updates to the motor vehicle emissio ns inventory in more detail.

DATA REVIEW

ARB reviewed the TPA data for anomalies and compare d VMT and speed trends to past submittals and to other independent sources of data . Staff prepared individual assessments for each area of the state that submitted data. Th ese assessments describe in detail the data submitted, major issues identified during the quali ty assurance process, and how these issues were resolved. The assessments included quality as surance questions presented to the TPAs and the answers provided by the TPAs. Also, ARB pr ovided supporting files with VMT and speeds trend charts and data files formatted for th e EMFAC model.

ARB posted the assessments to ARB’s website and sent letters to the TPAs requesting the ir final review of the information. ARB revised the d ata as appropriate following TPA input. The updated assessments are listed here and are availab le with supporting documents at www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/emfacact05/emfacact05.h tm

.

#520 Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) #526 Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) #546 Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) #556 San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) #557 Santa Barbara County Association of Government s (SBCAG) #558 San Joaquin Valley Transportation Planning Age ncies (SJV TPAs) #559 Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments ( AMBAG) #575 Butte County Association of Governments (BCAG) and Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA)


### When the quality assurance process was completed, A RB processed the data into a format compatible with the EMFAC model.

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### 2 DATA SUBMITTED
In general, the TPAs provided VMT estimates for the total vehicles in the fleet. There were instances where TPAs provided VMT data in more deta il by vehicle type; however, after consultations with the TPAs, ARB used updated DMV d ata to distribute total VMT to the 13 vehicle classes. In particular, heavy-duty VMT was assigned according to ARB’s recent heavy-duty vehicle statewide VMT redistribution.
The TPAs provided speed distributions for light-dut y vehicles, medium-duty vehicles, and motorcycles. In some cases, they provided speeds f or heavy-duty vehicles as well. After consultation, ARB updated the light- and medium-dut y fleet using the TPA speed distributions, but left heavy-duty speeds unchanged in the model. The heavy-duty speeds were not changed largely because the heavy-duty statewide VM T redistribution occurred after the travel demand model speeds had been developed. Since in m ost cases the heavy-duty speeds currently in the EMFAC model reflect instrumented v ehicle studies, it was thought better to leave the speeds unchanged for now. There will be opportunity to revisit heavy-duty speeds in CY 2006.

In the coming year, the TPAs will be improving thei r travel demand models and updating special truck and transit models. In addition, ARB has agreed to work with TPAs to resolve discrepancies between ARB VMT estimates and travel demand model VMT estimates. The area-specific assessments discuss all of these issu es in more detail.

VMT Updates
Table 1 summarizes the calendar years (CYs) of VMT data received from the TPAs. Only one base year among CYs 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003 coul d be used to populate the EMFAC model. Some areas provided data for more than one base year. The ones selected for the model are shown in Table 1.
CY 2040 appears for all areas. If an area did not provide 2040 data, ARB extrapolated VMT data to 2040 by compounding the TPA growth rates pr ovided for the nearest prior time period.
SACOG (and MTC for Solano County) provided data for CY 2000; however, due to the VMT adjustments agreed upon by SACOG, the Sacramento Me tropolitan Air Quality Management District, and ARB, CY 2003 was selected for the bas e year. (See Assessment # 546 for details.)

The VMT provided by the TPAs was entered into the E MFAC model using a VMT matching algorithm. The Appendix to this memorandum describ es how the VMT matching algorithm operates to match TPA VMT data in the EMFAC model.

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### 3 Table 1: VMT Data Provided by Area

AGENCY COUNTY AIR BASIN AREA BASE YEARS CALENDAR YEARS RECEIVED AMBAG Monterey North Central Coast 16 2000 2010 2020 2030 2 040 Nov 04

San Benito North Central Coast 17 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Santa Cruz North Central Coast 18 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

BCAG Butte Sacramento Valley 27 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 204 0 2004

MTC Alameda San Francisco 39 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 20 40 Dec 04 - May 05

Contra Costa San Francisco 40 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 2040 Marin San Francisco 41 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 2040 Napa San Francisco 42 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 2040 San Francisco San Francisco 43 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 203 0 2040 San Mateo San Francisco 44 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 204 0 Santa Clara San Francisco 45 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 2 040 So. Solano (SF) San Francisco 46 2000 2007 2015 2025 2030 2 040 So. Sonoma (SF) San Francisco 47 2000 2007 2015 2025 2030 2 040 No. Sonoma (NC) North Coast 22 2000 2007 2015 2025 2030 204 0

SACOG ElDorado (MC) Sacramento 9 2003 2005 2008 2013 2020 20 27 2040 Dec 04 - Mar 05

Placer (SV) Sacramento 30 2003 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 2040 Placer (MC) Sacramento 12 2003 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 2040 Sacramento Sacramento 31 2003 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 2040 Sutter Sacramento 34 2003 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 2040 Yolo Sacramento 36 2003 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 2040 Yuba Sacramento 37 2003 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 2040 MTC Solano (SV) Sacramento 33 2003 2007 2015 2025 2030 2040

SANDAG San Diego San Diego 38 2002 2008 2009 2010 2014 2020 2 030 2040 Dec 04 - Mar 05

FRESNO COG Fresno San Joaquin Valley 48 2000 2005 2008 201 0 2020 2030 2040 Feb 05 - Mar 05 KERN COG Kern (SJV) San Joaquin Valley 49 2000 2005 2008 2 010 2015 2020 2030 2040 KINGS CAG Kings San Joaquin Valley 50 2000 2005 2008 2010 2 020 2030 2040 MADERA CTC Madera San Joaquin Valley 51 2000 2005 2008 201 0 2020 2030 2040 MERCED CAG Merced San Joaquin Valley 52 2000 2005 2008 201 0 2020 2030 2040 SJCOG San Joaquin San Joaquin Valley 53 2000 2005 2008 201 0 2020 2030 2040 STANISLAUS COG Stanislaus San Joaquin Valley 54 2000 200 5 2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 TULARE CAG Tulare San Joaquin Valley 55 2003 2005 2008 201 0 2020 2030 2040 KERN COG Kern (MD) Mojave Desert 65 2000 2005 2008 2010 201 5 2020 2030 2040

SBCAG Santa Barbara South Central Coast 57 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 Feb 05

SCAG Los Angeles South Coast 59 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202 5 2030 2040 Jan 05 - Apr 05 SCAG Orange South Coast 60 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 SCAG Riverside with Banning South Coast 61 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 SCAG San Bernardino South Coast 62 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 SCAG Los Angeles (Antelope Valley) Mojave Desert 68 200 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 SCAG San Bernardino (VV + MV) Mojave Desert 69 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 SCAG Riverside (Coachella Valley) Salton Sea 64 2000 200 5 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 SCAG Ventura South Central Coast 58 2000 2005 2010 2015 202 0 2025 2030 2040 

### Speed Updates
The TPAs provided speeds for the light-duty fleet ( PC, LDT1, LDT2, T3, and MCYs). Typically, ARB default speed distributions based on instrument ed vehicle studies are used for heavyduty vehicles.
Table 2 summarizes the CYs of speed distributions p rovided by the TPAs. ARB did not interpolate or extrapolate speed distributions, but applied the speed distribution for the next future year to interim years. For example, if spee ds were provided for CYs 2000, 2005, and 2020, then the 2005 speeds were applied to CYs 2001 through 2005. Likewise, 2020 speeds were applied to CYs 2006 through 2020. In this exa mple, since no speeds were provided for out-years, the 2020 speeds would be applied through 2040.
Santa Barbara was the only exception to the typical approach. SBCAG provided specific instructions as to what speeds would be applied to specific CYs. (See Assessment #557 for details.)

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### 4 Table 2: Speeds Data Provided by Area

AGENCY COUNTY AIR BASIN AREA CALENDAR YEARS RECEIVED AMBAG Monterey North Central Coast 16 2010 2020 2025 2030 Nov 04

San Benito North Central Coast 17 2010 2020 2025 2030 Santa Cruz North Central Coast 18 2010 2020 2025 2030

BCAG Butte Sacramento Valley 27 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2004

MTC Alameda San Francisco 39 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 De c 04 - May 05

Contra Costa San Francisco 40 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 Marin San Francisco 41 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 Napa San Francisco 42 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 San Francisco San Francisco 43 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 203 0 San Mateo San Francisco 44 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 Santa Clara San Francisco 45 2000 2006 2007 2015 2025 2030 So. Solano (SF) San Francisco 46 2000 2007 2015 2025 2030 So. Sonoma (SF) San Francisco 47 2000 2007 2015 2025 2030 No. Sonoma (NC) North Coast 22 2000 2007 2015 2025 2030

SACOG ElDorado (MC) Sacramento 9 2000 2005 2008 2013 2020 20 27 Dec 04 - Mar 05

Placer (SV) Sacramento 30 2000 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 Placer (MC) Sacramento 12 2000 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 Sacramento Sacramento 31 2000 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 Sutter Sacramento 34 2000 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 Yolo Sacramento 36 2000 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 Yuba Sacramento 37 2000 2005 2008 2013 2020 2027 MTC Solano (SV) Sacramento 33 2000 2007 2015 2025 2030

SANDAG San Diego San Diego 38 2002 2008 2009 2010 2014 2020 2 030 Dec 04 - Mar 05

FRESNO COG Fresno San Joaquin Valley 48 2000 2002 2005 200 8 2010 2020 2030 Feb 05 - Mar 05 KERN COG Kern (SJV) San Joaquin Valley 49 2000 2005 2008 2 010 2015 2020 2030 KINGS CAG Kings San Joaquin Valley 50 2000 2002 2005 2008 2 010 2020 2030 MADERA CTC Madera San Joaquin Valley 51 2000 2005 2008 201 0 2020 2030 MERCED CAG Merced San Joaquin Valley 52 2000 2002 2005 200 8 2010 2020 2030 SJCOG San Joaquin San Joaquin Valley 53 2000 2005 2008 201 0 2020 2030 STANISLAUS COG Stanislaus San Joaquin Valley 54 2000 200 5 2008 2010 2020 2030 TULARE CAG Tulare San Joaquin Valley 55 2003 2005 2008 201 0 2020 2030 KERN COG Kern (MD) Mojave Desert 65 2000 2005 2008 2010 201 5 2020 2030

SBCAG Santa Barbara South Central Coast 57 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 Feb 05

SCAG Los Angeles South Coast 59 2000 2002 2005 2010 2015 202 0 2025 2030 2040 Jan 05 - Apr 05

Orange South Coast 60 2000 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 Riverside with Banning South Coast 61 2000 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 San Bernardino South Coast 62 2000 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 Los Angeles (Antelope Valley) Mojave Desert 68 2000 200 2 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 San Bernardino (VV + MV) Mojave Desert 69 2000 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 Riverside (Coachella Valley) Salton Sea 64 2000 2002 200 5 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 Ventura South Central Coast 58 2000 2002 2005 2010 2015 202 0 2025 2030 2040

TRPA El Dorado (LT) Lake Tahoe 5 2003 2010 2018 (all years have the same speed distribution) 2004

Placer (LT) Lake Tahoe 6 2003 2010 2018 (all years have the same speed distribution) 2004



### Time Period Definition Updates

Part of the speed submittals is the period definiti ons. The period definitions are the time-of-day periods associated with each speed distribution pro vided by the TPAs. Table 3 summarizes the period definitions by area.
Period definitions are typically the same for a giv en area for all forecasted years in the EMFAC model. For the first time, Santa Barbara provided period definitions that change over time to show a spreading of peak travel due to increases in traffic congestion. In the future, ARB expects that other areas will begin to show peak sp reading by varying period definitions over time.

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### 5 Table 3: Time Period Definitions for EMFAC 2007
TPA Air Basin/ Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Area County SPEED DISTRIBTUTIONS District Off Peak AM Peak Mid Day Mid Day PM Peak Off Peak BCAG DAILY
27 Butte SV/BUT AMBAG AMPK, PMPK, OFFPK
16 Monterey NCC/MBU Hours 0-5 6,7,8 9,10,11 12,13,14 15, 16, 17 18-23

17 San Benito NCC/MBU " " " " " "
18 Santa Cruz NCC/MBU " " " " " " MTC PK (Per. 2, 5), OFFPK (Per. 1,3,4,6)
39 Alameda SF/BA Hours 0-5 6,7,8 9,10,11 12,13,14 15, 16, 17 18-23
40 Contra Costa SF/BA " " " " " "

41 Marin SF/BA " " " " " "

42 Napa SF/BA " " " " " "
43 San Francisco SF/BA " " " " " "

44 San Mateo SF/BA " " " " " "
45 Santa Clara SF/BA " " " " " "
46 Solano (SF) SF/BA " " " " " "
33 Solano (SV) SV/YS " " " " " "

47 Sonoma (SF) SF/BA " " " " " "

22 Sonoma (NC) NC/NS " " " " " " SACOG AM, MID, PM, EVENING
9 El Dorado (MC) MC/ED Hours 0-5 6,7,8 9,10,11 12,13,14 15, 16, 17 18-23
30 Placer (SV) SV/PLA " " " " " "

12 Placer (MC) MC/PLA " " " " " "
31 Sacramento SV/SAC " " " " " "
34 Sutter SV/FR " " " " " "
36 Yolo SV/YS " " " " " "
37 Yuba SV/FR " " " " " " SANDAG PERIODS 1 - 6
38 San Diego SD/SD Hours 0-5 6,7,8 9,10,11 12,13,14 15, 16, 17 18-23 SCAG AMPK, PMPK, MIDDAY, NIGHT
59 Los Angeles SC/SC Hours 0-5 6,7,8 9,10,11 12,13,14 15,16,17,18 19-23
68 Los Angeles (Antelope Valley) MD/AV " " " " " "
60 Orange SC/SC " " " " " "
61 Riverside (Banning) SC/SC " " " " " "
64 Riverside (Coachella Valley) SS/SC " " " " " "
67 Riverside MD/SC " " " " " "
66 Riverside MD/MOJ " " " " " "
62 San Bernardino SC/SC " " " " " "
69 San Bernardino (Victor Valley and Mojave Valley) MD/MOJ " " " " " "
58 Ventura SCC/VEN " " " " " " SJV TPAs
48 Fresno AMPK, PMPK, OFFPK SJV/SJU Hours 0-5 6,7,8 9,10,11 12,13,14 15, 16, 17 18-23
49 Kern AM, PM, MD, OFF SJV/SJVU Hours 0-6 7,8 9,10,11 12,13,14 15, 16, 17 18-23
65 Kern AM, PM, MD, OFF MD/KER Hours 0-6 7,8 9,10,11 12,13,14 15, 16, 17 18-23
50 Kings DAILY SJV/SJU
51 Madera DAILY SJV/SJU
52 Merced DAILY SJV/SJU
53 San Joaquin DAILY SJV/SJU
54 Stanislaus DAILY SJV/SJU
55 Tulare AM, PM, OFF SJV/SJU Hours 0-5 6,7,8 9,10,11 12,13,14 15, 16, 17 18-23 TRPA (Lake Tahoe) DAILY
5 El Dorado LT/ED
6 Placer LT/PLA SBCAG AMPK, PMPK, OFFPK
57 Santa Barbara VARIES BY YEAR SCC CY 2000 Hours 0-6 7-8 9-11 12-15 16,17 18-23
CY 2005 Hours 0-6 7-8 9-11 12-15 16,17 18-23
CY 2010 Hours 0-5 6-8 9-11 12-14 15-17 18-23
CY 2015 Hours 0-5 6-9 10-11 12-14 15-18 19-23
CY 2020 Hours 0-5 6-9 10-11 12-14 15-18 19-23
CY 2030 Hours 0-5 6-9 10-11 12-14 15-18 19-23

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Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 6 Activity Data Issues
During the QA process, ARB staff raised questions w ith each of the TPAs regarding the activity data submittals. Details on the VMT and speeds iss ues are provided in the assessments for each area; however, there were two issues of partic ular interest—the slowing of growth rates compared to previous submittals and baseline VMT es timates that were noticeably less than other sources of data.
Slower VMT growth was reported by SCAG, MTC, SAGOG, and AMBAG. The TPAs offered their updated socioeconomic (i.e., population and j ob growth) estimates as the reason for the slower VMT growth rates.

The VMT baselines submitted for SCAG, MTC, SACOG, a nd the San Joaquin Valley region were less than both MVSTAFF and DMV/Smog Check esti mates. In the case of MTC and SACOG, the discrepancies were significant enough th at ARB made adjustments to the TPA VMT baselines, as was noted earlier in this documen t, before entering the data into the 2005 update of the EMFAC model. These adjustments are c onsidered temporary and were the result of agreements reached with the TPAs and air districts. ARB and the TPAs do not know the reasons for the discrepancies and have agreed t o pursue answers over the coming months.
The following charts were taken from the assessment s developed during the QA process. They compare the VMT trends and growth rates from s everal sources of data. The data sources typically included:

TPA VMT forecasts as submitted to ARB from November 2004 to March 2005 (Local VMT)

TPA VMT forecasts previously submitted to ARB usual ly represented in EMFAC2002, Version 2.2 (EMFAC2002, V2.2 (Apr03))
The most recently adopted State Implementation Plan for the area (SIP VMT)

Caltrans VMT forecasts from the California Motor Ve hicle Stock, Travel and Fuel Forecast, Nov 2003 (MVSTAFF VMT)
Human population trends taken from the State of Cal ifornia, Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, “Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004

. (Human Population )

If a data source was missing an interim year, ARB s traight-line interpolated to complete the VMT trend. The comparisons were based on whole cou nty VMT estimates and are not necessarily limited to air basin boundaries. The c ounty level comparisons along with questions/issues raised during the QA process are a vailable at the website:

____________________ .

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Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 7 San Francisco Bay Area

Vehicle Miles Traveled and Human Population

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

### VMT in 1,000's

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 

### Population

Local VMT SIP 2004 VMT MVStaff VMT (Adj) Human Population (Adj)



## Growth Rates

1.00 1.30 1.60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (Adjusted)

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### 8 Monterey Bay Area



## Growth Rates

1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



### Vehicle Miles Traveled and Human Population

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

### VMT in 1,000's

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 

### Population

Local VMT EMFAC2002 V2.2 (Apr03) MVStaff VMT Human Population

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### 9 Sacramento Planning Area

Vehicle M iles Traveled and Human Population

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

### VMT in 1,000's

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 

### Population

Local VMT EMFAC2002 V2.2 (Apr03) MVStaff VMT Human Population



## Growth Rates

1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(Unadjusted)

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### 10 San Diego County

Vehicle M iles Traveled

and Human Population

0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

### VMT in 1,000's

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 

### Population

Local VMT EMFAC2002 V2.2 (Apr03) VMT
MVStaff VMT Human Population



### Growth Rates

1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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### 11 San Joaquin Valley



### Vehicle M iles Traveled and Human Population

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

### VMT in 1,000's

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000

Local VMT Extreme Ozone SIP EMFAC2002 V2.2 (Apr03) MV Staff Human Population



## Growth Rates

1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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### 12 Santa Barbara County



## Vehicle M iles Traveled

and Human Population

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

## VMT in 1,000's

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 

## Population

Local VMT EMFAC2002 V2.2 (Apr03)

MVStaff VMT Human Population



## Growth Rates

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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### 13 South Coast Region

Vehicle M iles Traveled

and Human Population

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

### VMT in 1,000's

0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 

### Population

Local VMT SIP 2003 VMT MVStaff VMT EMFAC2002 V2.2 (Apr03) Human Population



## Growth Rates

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 14 Emission Impacts from New VMT (Relative to EMFAC 20 02)

In order to compare emissions associated with the n ew Working Draft activity data to emissions associated with prior activity data, staf f ran the new EMFAC, Version 2.22.8.51209 model in two ways: (1) using activity defaults (th e new activity data) and (2) using activity data from EMFAC2002, Version 2.2 (Apr03).

Table A shows the difference when the summer season WIS enabled (prior activity) model runs are subtracted from the default (new activity) model runs. Negative numbers indicate that the new values are lower than the prior values. Th us, statewide, there was an increase in VMT and corresponding emissions resulting from the new data. In 2002, the increase was 70 tons per day of ROG, 111 tons per day of NOx, and 5 tons per day of PM10.
In the base year 2002, the San Joaquin Valley Air B asin shows a decrease in VMT and emissions. South Coast, San Joaquin Valley, and Sa n Francisco Air Basins show less VMT and emissions for out years 2015 and 2020. In the South Coast, the new activity data decreased ROG by 10 tons per day, NOx by 14 tons pe r day, and PM10 by 1 ton per day in 2015 with a slightly bigger decrease in 2020.

Table B shows the percent change in emissions, vehi cle population, and VMT. Emission changes range from 7 percent decrease to 6 percent increase depending on the calendar year and area.

### March 17, 2006

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### 15 Table A 

## Changes in Emissions Draft EMFAC 2007 VMT Compared to E07 with E02 VMT

Tons/Day Vehicles Miles/Day ROG CO NOx CO2 PM10 Pop VMT in 1,000's CY2002 Statewide 70 625 111 32 5 1,716,700 53,521 South Coast Air Basin 24 204 31 11 1 618,600 18,310 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin -4 -33 -9 -2 0 -73,780 -2,477 San Diego Air Basin 2 21 3 1 0 61,150 2,036 San Francisco Air Basin 7 62 9 3 0 172,450 5,174 CY2015 Statewide 4 28 6 4 0 244,300 7,450 South Coast Air Basin -10 -68 -14 -11 -1 -655,600 -18,746 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin -4 -24 -8 -4 0 -183,830 -6,15 5 San Diego Air Basin 0 1 0 0 0 6,680 212 San Francisco Air Basin -1 -9 -2 -1 0 -89,050 -2,598 CY2020 Statewide 0 3 1 1 0 40,500 1,240 South Coast Air Basin -12 -73 -15 -18 -2 -1,049,300 -29,97 4 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin -2 -15 -5 -4 0 -180,570 -6,13 4 San Diego Air Basin 1 7 1 2 0 89,170 2,816 San Francisco Air Basin -1 -10 -2 -3 0 -147,960 -4,305

Source: EMFAC Working Draft, Version 2.22.8.51209, default compared to WIS enabled, summer. Vehicle populations were adjusted in order to chang e VMT.

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### 16 Table B 

## Percent Change in Emissions Draft EMFAC 2007 VMT Compared to E07 with E02 VMT Vehicle ROG CO NOx CO2 PM10 Pop VMT CY2002 Statewide 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% South Coast Air Basin 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% San Joaquin Valley Air Basin -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% San Diego Air Basin 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% San Francisco Air Basin 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% CY2015 Statewide 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% South Coast Air Basin -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% San Joaquin Valley Air Basin -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% San Diego Air Basin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% San Francisco Air Basin -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% CY2020 Statewide 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% South Coast Air Basin -7% -7% -7% -7% -7% -7% -7% San Joaquin Valley Air Basin -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% San Diego Air Basin 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% San Francisco Air Basin -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2%

Source: EMFAC Working Draft, Version 2.22.8.51209, default compared to WIS enabled, summer. Vehicle populations were adjusted in order to chang e VMT.

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### 17 Emissions Impacts from New VMT (Relative to ARB Cal culated VMT)

Another way that ARB estimates the impacts associat ed with a given change in the EMFAC model is by making one type of change at a time and then comparing the difference in emissions. Version 2.225 of the EMFAC model reflec ts revisions made up to the point of changing VMT to reflect the TPA VMT submittals. Ve rsion 2.226 was updated to reflect the new TPA VMT submittal. Thus, the difference betwee n 2.225 and 2.226 can be attributed to the difference in VMT methodologies.
One point of clarification is that Version 2.225 in cludes updated DMV/BAR data used to establish base year vehicle populations, accrual ra tes, and resulting VMT. Also, heavy heavyduty diesel truck (HHDDT) growth rates were revised during ARB’s recent redistribution of statewide HHDDT VMT. Hence, the VMT assignments us ed as the base case in the following comparisons are different than those in EMFAC 2002, Version 2.2 which contains previous TPA data and will be used in air quality plans and evaluations up to the release of EMFAC 2007.

Given that TPA VMT estimates were less than the VMT in EMFAC Version 2.225 calculated from DMV/BAR data, the emissions associated with th e new VMT are also less.

Table 4 shows the differences in emissions, vehicle population, and VMT between Version 2.225 and 2.226. In CY 2002 there was roughly 8% f ewer VMT resulting in 3% less ROG, 6% less NOx, and 7% less PM10 statewide. In CY 2020 t here was roughly 16% fewer VMT, 6% less ROG, 7% less NOx, and 16% less PM10.

Table 4 also shows that the South Coast had 14% les s VMT causing 4% less ROG, 10% less NOx, and 12% less PM10 in CY 2002 when compared to EMFAC Version 2.225. In 2020, the South Coast had 27% less VMT resulting in 10% less ROG, 10% less NOx, and 27% less PM10.
For more detailed information, see Tables 6 through 12 at the end of this memorandum.
Table 4: Changes in Emissions from New VMT EMFAC Version 2.226 Compared to 2.225

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 18 tons/day vehicles miles/day ROG CO NOx CO2 PM10 POP VMT 

### Year 2002 Statewide -29.94 -881.31 -109.91 -39,900 -5.44 0 -79,719,4 30 South Coast Air Basin -18.34 -605.75 -60.68 -27,091 -2.9 3 0 -55,973,630 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin -3.64 -82.34 -18.40 -3,674 -1.06 0 -6,048,760 Sacramento Valley Air Basin -0.57 -13.06 -2.17 -454 -0.1 1 0 -785,352 San Diego Air Basin -0.45 -10.60 -1.67 -532 -0.08 0 -976,1 84 San Francisco Air Basin -7.34 -163.62 -27.25 -7,164 -1.1 6 0 -13,771,500 

### Year 2015 Statewide -33.96 -600.41 -61.22 -93,303 -9.23 -2,681,268 - 178,640,000 South Coast Air Basin -20.95 -400.39 -27.39 -59,185 -5.7 6 -1,805,238 -119,369,190 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin -2.12 -44.03 -14.36 -9,608 -1.03 -147,136 -14,454,850 Sacramento Valley Air Basin -0.54 -8.22 -1.95 -914 -0.13 -15,385 -1,489,020 San Diego Air Basin -1.79 -17.53 -3.12 -2,907 -0.29 -123, 930 -5,223,240 San Francisco Air Basin -6.16 -108.73 -16.53 -15,885 -1. 77 -351,758 -27,441,740 

### Year 2020 Statewide -27.96 -454.64 -50.16 -109,511 -10.59 -3,396,15 2 -207,707,000 South Coast Air Basin -17.26 -300.62 -21.20 -68,318 -6.6 6 -2,278,627 -137,600,320 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin -1.89 -35.51 -12.10 -11,67 8 -1.09 -212,650 -17,355,760 Sacramento Valley Air Basin -0.26 -5.14 -1.20 -864 -0.11 -8,654 -1,402,300 San Diego Air Basin -1.31 -11.04 -1.74 -1,582 -0.20 -71,1 19 -2,773,400 San Francisco Air Basin -4.75 -78.94 -11.85 -19,356 -1.9 4 -479,906 -33,627,130

ROG includes total exhaust plus evaporative emissio ns. PM10 includes total exhaust plus tire/brake wear em issions.



### Emissions Impacts from New Speeds
Speed distributions are entered directly into the E MFAC model. To find the emissions impacts from the new TPA speeds, staff compared Version 2.2 26 to Version 2.227. Version 2.227 is identical to 2.226 except that the new TPA speeds w ere added to the model.
The speeds in EMFAC Version 2.226 were carried forw ard from EMFAC 2002, Version 2.2. The change in emissions is the result of updating t he light- and medium-duty vehicle fleet speed distributions with the new TPA speeds. Somet imes the new speeds were slower than past submittals showing the effects of congestion. Other times, the speeds were faster than past submittals, showing the impact from new transp ortation projects built or planned. The emission impacts varied by area, but statewide emis sions increased as a result of the new speeds.

Table 5 shows that statewide
, the new TPA speeds caused a 2% increase in ROG emi ssions, less than 1% increase in NOx, and 1% increase in PM 10 in CY 2002. CY 2020 showed an increase of less than 1% for ROG and NOx and roughl y 1% increase in PM10 statewide.
For the South Coast, new speeds caused a 3% increas e in ROG, less than 1% increase in NOx, and 2% increase in PM10 in CY 2002. In CY 202 0 there was less than 1% increase in ROG and NOx and roughly 3% increase in PM10.
Tables 13 through 19 found at the end of this memor andum provide additional details on emission impacts from the new speeds by area.

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 19 Table 5: Changes in Emissions from New Speeds

EMFAC Version 2.227 Compared to Version 2.226 tons/day ROG CO NOx CO2 PM10 

### Year 2002 Statewide 21.32 207.26 10.59 17,176 0.89 South Coast Air Basin 10.86 91.12 3.94 8,667 0.49 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin 0.99 11.46 0.22 681 0.01 Sacramento Valley Air Basin 0.69 10.07 0.84 656 0.02 San Diego Air Basin 0.52 5.36 0.32 462 0.03 San Francisco Bay Area 6.83 76.21 5.43 5,752 0.24 

### Year 2015 Statewide 2.66 14.55 4.18 7,658 0.64 South Coast Air Basin 1.23 13.91 1.31 5,877 0.39 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin 0.57 8.88 0.16 1,672 0.12 Sacramento Valley Air Basin 0.09 -0.34 0.17 385 0.00 San Diego Air Basin 0.28 4.02 0.14 914 0.09 San Francisco Bay Area -0.77 -15.56 0.01 -1,880 -0.23 

### Year 2020 Statewide 2.02 10.93 2.77 9,873 0.69 South Coast Air Basin 0.89 12.33 0.92 6,881 0.51 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin 0.35 5.51 0.11 1,569 0.11 Sacramento Valley Air Basin -0.01 -2.67 0.05 -17 -0.03 San Diego Air Basin 0.15 2.66 0.10 792 0.08 San Francisco Bay Area -0.24 -10.58 0.10 -600 -0.15

ROG includes total exhaust plus evaporative emissio ns. PM10 includes total exhaust plus tire/brake wear em issions.



### Table 6: Statewide New VMT and Emission Impacts

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Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 20 Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2 1980 14,817,640 497,419,840 3605.04 33282.71 2589.22 3291 54.60 73.55 1990 22,515,974 786,020,420 2546.91 26510.16 2792.00 4776 33.40 119.32 2000 26,785,744 897,559,680 1407.16 13580.21 2117.27 5135 39.40 84.29 2002 28,178,674 958,260,290 1155.76 10937.50 1927.04 5452 44.80 79.16 2005 30,910,260 1,034,734,700 1019.65 9097.96 1795.05 591 358.10 81.38 2010 33,960,136 1,121,785,100 767.72 6507.64 1342.03 6412 40.60 72.04 2015 36,789,816 1,219,000,600 580.58 4510.23 937.79 70914 9.40 68.31 2020 39,667,496 1,318,458,400 454.89 3198.95 670.13 773355.50 67.53

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2 1980 14,820,197 452,361,020 3389.44 30319.66 2381.83 3031 19.60 69.76 1990 22,523,984 719,014,210 2423.96 24275.23 2599.22 4429 08.70 113.57 2000 26,785,744 822,458,560 1357.07 12461.46 1981.11 4758 53.90 78.81 2002 28,178,674 878,540,860 1125.82 10056.19 1817.13 5053 44.80 73.71 2005 29,135,822 895,088,450 948.51 7941.62 1640.20 519362 .50 72.54 2010 31,854,958 967,485,630 723.74 5688.66 1263.26 563602 .40 64.29 2015 34,108,548 1,040,360,600 546.62 3909.82 876.57 61584 6.90 59.08 2020 36,271,344 1,110,751,400 426.93 2744.30 619.97 663844.10 56.94

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2 1980 2,557 -45,058,820 -215.60 -2963.05 -207.39 -26035.00 -3.79 1990 8,010 -67,006,210 -122.95 -2234.93 -192.78 -34724.70 -5.75 2000 0 -75,101,120 -50.08 -1118.75 -136.16 -37685.50 -5.48 2002 0 -79,719,430 -29.94 -881.31 -109.91 -39900.00 -5.44 2005 -1,774,438 -139,646,250 -71.14 -1156.34 -154.85 -719 95.60 -8.84 2010 -2,105,178 -154,299,470 -43.98 -818.98 -78.78 -77638 .20 -7.75 2015 -2,681,268 -178,640,000 -33.96 -600.41 -61.22 -93302 .50 -9.23 2020 -3,396,152 -207,707,000 -27.96 -454.64 -50.16 -10951 1.40 -10.59

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.02% -9.06% -5.98% -8.90% -8.01% -7.91% -5.15% 1990 0.04% -8.52% -4.83% -8.43% -6.90% -7.27% -4.82% 2000 0.00% -8.37% -3.56% -8.24% -6.43% -7.34% -6.50% 2002 0.00% -8.32% -2.59% -8.06% -5.70% -7.32% -6.88% 2005 -5.74% -13.50% -6.98% -12.71% -8.63% -12.17% -10.86% 2010 -6.20% -13.75% -5.73% -12.58% -5.87% -12.11% -10.76% 2015 -7.29% -14.65% -5.85% -13.31% -6.53% -13.16% -13.51% 2020 -8.56% -15.75% -6.15% -14.21% -7.48% -14.16% -15.68% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

Difference (Ver. 2.226 - Ver. 2.225) in Statewide E mission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in Statewide Emission Inventories (relative to Ver. 2.225) Statewide Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inv entories (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.225)

Statewide Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inv entories With Changes to COG VMTs

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 21 Table 7: Sacramento Valley Air Basin New VMT and E mission Impacts

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1189906 39432972 303.10 2854.83 213.30 25924.68 6.37 1990 1761329 61722380 208.55 2171.95 232.02 37811.89 10.91 2000 2069264 67513488 119.25 1125.49 180.22 40118.05 7.17 2002 2254476 74678744 101.78 937.45 168.17 43740.23 6.74 2005 2566627 82908240 94.73 805.89 161.63 48876.33 7.00 2010 2862687 91412848 73.65 584.40 120.75 53269.45 6.11 2015 3173468 103683800 54.92 397.14 83.15 60338.51 5.72 2020 3454848 113224960 42.33 277.45 57.98 66815.88 5.63

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1189906 38993796 300.72 2820.04 210.89 25655.24 6.27 1990 1761329 61012160 206.77 2141.71 229.12 37393.59 10.73 2000 2069264 66786188 118.45 1109.86 177.85 39694.47 7.05 2002 2254476 73893392 101.21 924.39 166.00 43286.40 6.62 2005 2564842 82002616 94.15 793.90 159.23 48335.57 6.87 2010 2858330 90350352 73.18 574.63 118.59 52628.00 5.98 2015 3158083 102194780 54.38 388.92 81.21 59424.96 5.59 2020 3446194 111822660 42.07 272.31 56.78 65951.75 5.52

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 -439176 -2.37 -34.79 -2.41 -269.44 -0.10 1990 0 -710220 -1.78 -30.23 -2.91 -418.30 -0.18 2000 0 -727300 -0.79 -15.63 -2.37 -423.58 -0.12 2002 0 -785352 -0.57 -13.06 -2.17 -453.83 -0.11 2005 -1785 -905624 -0.57 -12.00 -2.40 -540.76 -0.13 2010 -4357 -1062496 -0.47 -9.76 -2.16 -641.45 -0.13 2015 -15385 -1489020 -0.54 -8.22 -1.95 -913.55 -0.13 2020 -8654 -1402300 -0.26 -5.14 -1.20 -864.13 -0.11

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% -1.11% -0.78% -1.22% -1.13% -1.04% -1.56% 1990 0.00% -1.15% -0.85% -1.39% -1.25% -1.11% -1.69% 2000 0.00% -1.08% -0.66% -1.39% -1.32% -1.06% -1.72% 2002 0.00% -1.05% -0.56% -1.39% -1.29% -1.04% -1.67% 2005 -0.07% -1.09% -0.60% -1.49% -1.48% -1.11% -1.88% 2010 -0.15% -1.16% -0.64% -1.67% -1.79% -1.20% -2.06% 2015 -0.48% -1.44% -0.98% -2.07% -2.34% -1.51% -2.25% 2020 -0.25% -1.24% -0.61% -1.85% -2.08% -1.29% -1.90% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.226 - Ver. 2.225) in Sacramento Emission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in Sacramento Emission Inventorie s (relative to Ver. 2.225) Sacramento Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle In ventories

(Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.225)

Sacramento Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle In ventories With Changes to COG VMT (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 22 Table 8: San Diego Air Basin New VMT and Emission Impacts

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1097560 33909908 299.80 2720.07 172.04 23744.43 3.60 1990 1874269 65479136 203.76 2153.91 198.10 40895.29 6.30 2000 2227749 74069576 105.04 1029.44 140.46 41771.38 5.00 2002 2373918 80020584 87.65 846.07 125.67 45127.00 4.99 2005 2654406 87498144 78.65 724.04 114.59 49545.58 5.32 2010 2859402 92355784 58.93 506.80 87.12 51998.42 5.13 2015 3090088 99320864 45.71 352.70 63.24 56011.39 5.10 2020 3248809 103131030 37.60 259.02 47.85 58635.43 5.17

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1097560 33496236 297.15 2685.02 169.93 23470.72 3.55 1990 1874269 64680348 202.07 2126.32 195.56 40414.38 6.20 2000 2227749 73166000 104.39 1016.39 138.54 41279.64 4.91 2002 2373918 79044400 87.20 835.47 124.00 44595.10 4.90 2005 2571104 83761520 75.88 692.42 109.90 47455.96 5.08 2010 2748386 87558408 56.67 482.32 82.72 49319.84 4.84 2015 2966158 94097624 43.91 335.17 60.13 53104.29 4.81 2020 3177690 100357630 36.28 247.97 46.11 57053.48 4.97

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 -413672 -2.65 -35.05 -2.11 -273.71 -0.05 1990 0 -798788 -1.69 -27.59 -2.54 -480.91 -0.10 2000 0 -903576 -0.65 -13.05 -1.92 -491.74 -0.08 2002 0 -976184 -0.45 -10.60 -1.67 -531.90 -0.08 2005 -83302 -3736624 -2.77 -31.62 -4.69 -2089.62 -0.24 2010 -111016 -4797376 -2.27 -24.47 -4.39 -2678.58 -0.29 2015 -123930 -5223240 -1.79 -17.53 -3.12 -2907.10 -0.29 2020 -71119 -2773400 -1.31 -11.04 -1.74 -1581.95 -0.20

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% -1.22% -0.88% -1.29% -1.22% -1.15% -1.42% 1990 0.00% -1.22% -0.83% -1.28% -1.28% -1.18% -1.59% 2000 0.00% -1.22% -0.62% -1.27% -1.37% -1.18% -1.70% 2002 0.00% -1.22% -0.52% -1.25% -1.33% -1.18% -1.69% 2005 -3.14% -4.27% -3.52% -4.37% -4.10% -4.22% -4.52% 2010 -3.88% -5.19% -3.84% -4.83% -5.04% -5.15% -5.70% 2015 -4.01% -5.26% -3.92% -4.97% -4.93% -5.19% -5.69% 2020 -2.19% -2.69% -3.49% -4.26% -3.63% -2.70% -3.93% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.226 - Ver. 2.225) in San Diego E mission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in San Diego Emission Inventories (relative to Ver. 2.225) San Diego Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inv entories (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.225)

San Diego Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inv entories With Changes to COG VMTs (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 23 Table 9: San Francisco Air Basin New VMT and Emiss ion Impacts

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 3577805 113122960 853.62 7929.08 590.98 70074.33 10.9 3 1990 4628184 152582580 481.28 5057.39 503.60 85561.60 15.0 2 2000 5519282 177297100 261.09 2515.25 340.34 94893.51 11.2 7 2002 5644236 183115630 220.05 2128.45 313.85 98220.21 10.8 7 2005 6003726 191004560 183.13 1674.32 267.53 102661.90 11. 30 2010 6757176 213706530 141.05 1242.50 202.47 122057.50 11. 82 2015 7193950 227056940 102.96 849.52 139.09 132051.80 11.8 7 2020 7683764 243221500 77.72 587.99 98.14 141849.50 12.14

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 3577805 104633350 811.63 7313.42 546.00 65112.39 9.87 1990 4628184 140980770 459.30 4660.59 463.01 79310.57 13.4 2 2000 5519282 164071820 251.76 2326.24 311.13 88033.75 10.0 6 2002 5644236 169344130 212.71 1964.83 286.59 91055.96 9.72 2005 5964264 175417250 177.12 1532.31 242.99 94489.30 10.0 1 2010 6401483 186231760 132.16 1089.44 178.65 106644.50 10. 07 2015 6842192 199615200 96.80 740.79 122.56 116166.60 10.10 2020 7203858 209594370 72.97 509.05 86.28 122493.60 10.20

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 -8489610 -42.00 -615.66 -44.99 -4961.94 -1.06 1990 0 -11601810 -21.97 -396.80 -40.59 -6251.03 -1.59 2000 0 -13225280 -9.33 -189.01 -29.21 -6859.76 -1.21 2002 0 -13771500 -7.34 -163.62 -27.25 -7164.25 -1.16 2005 -39462 -15587310 -6.01 -142.01 -24.54 -8172.60 -1.28 2010 -355693 -27474770 -8.90 -153.06 -23.83 -15413.00 -1.7 5 2015 -351758 -27441740 -6.16 -108.73 -16.53 -15885.20 -1.7 7 2020 -479906 -33627130 -4.75 -78.94 -11.85 -19355.90 -1.94

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% -7.50% -4.92% -7.76% -7.61% -7.08% -9.72% 1990 0.00% -7.60% -4.57% -7.85% -8.06% -7.31% -10.62% 2000 0.00% -7.46% -3.57% -7.51% -8.58% -7.23% -10.72% 2002 0.00% -7.52% -3.33% -7.69% -8.68% -7.29% -10.63% 2005 -0.66% -8.16% -3.28% -8.48% -9.17% -7.96% -11.35% 2010 -5.26% -12.86% -6.31% -12.32% -11.77% -12.63% -14.81% 2015 -4.89% -12.09% -5.99% -12.80% -11.88% -12.03% -14.91% 2020 -6.25% -13.83% -6.11% -13.43% -12.08% -13.65% -15.99% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.226 - Ver. 2.225) in San Francis co Emission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in San Francisco Emission Invento ries (relative to Ver. 2.225) San Francisco Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inventories

(Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.225)

San Francisco Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inventories With Changes to COG VMTs (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 24 Table 10: San Joaquin Valley Air Basin New VMT and Emission Impacts

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1023520 38087232 271.20 2730.16 256.65 29347.22 14.49 1990 1679639 63364384 231.95 2423.36 337.54 46353.51 24.66 2000 2330556 82586816 154.83 1464.79 329.20 57045.61 16.00 2002 2487499 89559584 129.28 1186.23 315.67 60746.58 14.20 2005 2830626 99974768 121.26 1023.58 316.77 68100.70 14.12 2010 3199563 112108190 92.83 728.81 236.88 74139.71 10.75 2015 3615226 130570590 69.66 495.88 166.60 86958.69 9.21 2020 4024302 146839180 54.26 350.59 119.07 99459.26 8.57

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1023520 35562160 258.74 2540.86 241.26 27640.65 13.54 1990 1679639 59095444 221.82 2254.52 317.67 43622.46 23.06 2000 2330556 77028680 149.58 1362.70 309.37 53628.51 14.82 2002 2487499 83510824 125.65 1103.89 297.27 57072.38 13.14 2005 2729342 89859968 114.61 921.78 288.39 61565.61 12.60 2010 3159172 103175800 90.84 675.24 222.08 68293.25 9.88 2015 3468090 116115740 67.54 451.85 152.23 77351.02 8.18 2020 3811652 129483420 52.37 315.08 106.97 87781.16 7.48

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 -2525072 -12.45 -189.30 -15.39 -1706.57 -0.95 1990 0 -4268940 -10.13 -168.85 -19.87 -2731.05 -1.60 2000 0 -5558136 -5.26 -102.09 -19.83 -3417.10 -1.18 2002 0 -6048760 -3.64 -82.34 -18.40 -3674.20 -1.06 2005 -101284 -10114800 -6.65 -101.80 -28.38 -6535.09 -1.51 2010 -40391 -8932390 -1.98 -53.57 -14.79 -5846.46 -0.87 2015 -147136 -14454850 -2.12 -44.03 -14.36 -9607.67 -1.03 2020 -212650 -17355760 -1.89 -35.51 -12.10 -11678.10 -1.09

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% -6.63% -4.59% -6.93% -6.00% -5.82% -6.55% 1990 0.00% -6.74% -4.37% -6.97% -5.89% -5.89% -6.50% 2000 0.00% -6.73% -3.40% -6.97% -6.02% -5.99% -7.36% 2002 0.00% -6.75% -2.81% -6.94% -5.83% -6.05% -7.46% 2005 -3.58% -10.12% -5.48% -9.95% -8.96% -9.60% -10.70% 2010 -1.26% -7.97% -2.14% -7.35% -6.25% -7.89% -8.09% 2015 -4.07% -11.07% -3.05% -8.88% -8.62% -11.05% -11.14% 2020 -5.28% -11.82% -3.48% -10.13% -10.16% -11.74% -12.76% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.226 - Ver. 2.225) in San Joaquin Emission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in San Joaquin Emission Inventori es (relative to Ver. 2.225) San Joaquin Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle I nventories

(Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.225)

San Joaquin Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle I nventories With Changes to COG VMTs (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 25 Table11: South Coast Air Basin New VMT and Emissio n Impacts

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 6132212 212274690 1444.87 13076.57 974.36 138027.20 2 1.90 1990 9485851 332536610 1055.82 10900.81 1024.42 196327.50 32.95 2000 11074958 374707840 563.05 5478.85 721.29 205289.90 25 .70 2002 11606219 399479680 452.53 4345.55 632.13 217598.10 24 .81 2005 12648746 431110880 387.47 3528.80 562.43 235094.50 26 .21 2010 13569852 455681220 279.78 2424.07 415.72 246294.50 24 .96 2015 14488933 482021250 212.99 1694.85 287.62 266581.40 24 .80 2020 15463265 514247580 168.23 1209.94 204.30 285327.50 25.04

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 6132212 180033150 1293.57 11068.61 836.95 119653.70 2 0.28 1990 9485851 284595070 970.75 9331.86 902.00 172100.40 30. 65 2000 11074958 321947740 530.31 4701.98 641.59 179635.30 22 .91 2002 11606219 343506050 434.20 3739.80 571.44 190507.20 21 .88 2005 11270981 329753600 336.91 2705.51 475.15 184343.70 21 .02 2010 12119336 350421920 250.49 1868.12 371.71 195277.20 20 .02 2015 12683695 362652060 192.04 1294.47 260.23 207396.40 19 .04 2020 13184638 376647260 150.97 909.32 183.10 217009.20 18.38

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 -32241540 -151.30 -2007.96 -137.41 -18373.50 -1.63 1990 0 -47941540 -85.07 -1568.95 -122.42 -24227.10 -2.30 2000 0 -52760100 -32.74 -776.87 -79.71 -25654.60 -2.79 2002 0 -55973630 -18.34 -605.75 -60.68 -27090.90 -2.93 2005 -1377765 -101357280 -50.57 -823.29 -87.28 -50750.80 - 5.19 2010 -1450516 -105259300 -29.29 -555.95 -44.01 -51017.30 - 4.94 2015 -1805238 -119369190 -20.95 -400.39 -27.39 -59185.00 - 5.76 2020 -2278627 -137600320 -17.26 -300.62 -21.20 -68318.30 -6.66

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% -15.19% -10.47% -15.36% -14.10% -13.31% -7.43% 1990 0.00% -14.42% -8.06% -14.39% -11.95% -12.34% -6.97% 2000 0.00% -14.08% -5.82% -14.18% -11.05% -12.50% -10.86% 2002 0.00% -14.01% -4.05% -13.94% -9.60% -12.45% -11.80% 2005 -10.89% -23.51% -13.05% -23.33% -15.52% -21.59% -19.8 0% 2010 -10.69% -23.10% -10.47% -22.93% -10.59% -20.71% -19.7 9% 2015 -12.46% -24.76% -9.84% -23.62% -9.52% -22.20% -23.23% 2020 -14.74% -26.76% -10.26% -24.85% -10.38% -23.94% -26.6 1% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.226 - Ver. 2.225) in South Coast Emission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in South Coast Emission Inventori es (relative to Ver. 2.225) South Coast Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle I nventories

(Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.225)

South Coast Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle I nventories With Changes to COG VMTs (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 26 Table 12: Statewide Emissions Impacts from New Spe eds

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 14820197 452361020 3389.44 30319.66 2381.83 303119.6 0 69.76 1990 22523984 719014210 2423.96 24275.23 2599.22 442908.7 0 113.57 2000 26785744 822458560 1357.07 12461.46 1981.11 475853.9 0 78.81 2002 28178674 878540860 1125.82 10056.19 1817.13 505344.8 0 73.71 2005 29135822 895088450 948.51 7941.62 1640.20 519362.50 7 2.54 2010 31854958 967485630 723.74 5688.66 1263.26 563602.40 6 4.29 2015 34108548 1040360600 546.62 3909.82 876.57 615846.90 5 9.08 2020 36271344 1110751400 426.93 2744.30 619.97 663844.10 56.94

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 14820197 452361020 3391.44 30338.42 2381.20 303363.4 0 69.77 1990 22523984 719014210 2425.25 24292.48 2599.45 443269.3 0 113.58 2000 26785744 822458560 1384.34 12713.99 1992.36 491034.0 0 79.62 2002 28178674 878540860 1147.14 10263.45 1827.72 522520.9 0 74.60 2005 29135822 895088450 963.08 8090.12 1647.95 536017.40 7 3.46 2010 31854958 967485630 731.12 5749.98 1269.81 575405.80 6 5.36 2015 34108548 1040360600 549.28 3924.37 880.74 623504.50 5 9.72 2020 36271344 1110751400 428.95 2755.23 622.75 673717.30 57.64

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 0 2.00 18.76 -0.63 243.80 0.02 1990 0 0 1.29 17.25 0.24 360.60 0.02 2000 0 0 27.27 252.53 11.24 15180.10 0.81 2002 0 0 21.32 207.26 10.59 17176.10 0.89 2005 0 0 14.57 148.50 7.75 16654.90 0.92 2010 0 0 7.38 61.32 6.55 11803.40 1.07 2015 0 0 2.66 14.55 4.18 7657.60 0.64 2020 0 0 2.02 10.93 2.77 9873.20 0.69

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.06% -0.03% 0.08% 0.02% 1990 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.07% 0.01% 0.08% 0.02% 2000 0.00% 0.00% 2.01% 2.03% 0.57% 3.19% 1.03% 2002 0.00% 0.00% 1.89% 2.06% 0.58% 3.40% 1.20% 2005 0.00% 0.00% 1.54% 1.87% 0.47% 3.21% 1.27% 2010 0.00% 0.00% 1.02% 1.08% 0.52% 2.09% 1.66% 2015 0.00% 0.00% 0.49% 0.37% 0.48% 1.24% 1.08% 2020 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 0.40% 0.45% 1.49% 1.22% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.227)

Difference (Ver. 2.227 - Ver. 2.226) in Statewide E mission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in Statewide Emission Inventories (relative to Ver. 2.226) Statewide Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inv entories (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

Statewide Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inv entories With Changes to COG Speeds

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 27 Table 13: Sacramento Valley Air Basin Emission Imp acts from New Speeds

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1189906 38993796 300.72 2820.04 210.89 25655.24 6.27 1990 1761329 61012160 206.77 2141.71 229.12 37393.59 10.73 2000 2069264 66786188 118.45 1109.86 177.85 39694.47 7.05 2002 2254476 73893392 101.21 924.39 166.00 43286.40 6.62 2005 2564842 82002616 94.15 793.90 159.23 48335.57 6.87 2010 2858330 90350352 73.18 574.63 118.59 52628.00 5.98 2015 3158083 102194780 54.38 388.92 81.21 59424.96 5.59 2020 3446194 111822660 42.07 272.31 56.78 65951.75 5.52

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1189906 38993796 301.11 2835.63 211.14 25699.52 6.27 1990 1761329 61012160 207.01 2150.16 229.46 37479.71 10.73 2000 2069264 66786188 119.02 1118.47 178.61 40099.35 7.06 2002 2254476 73893392 101.91 934.47 166.85 43942.66 6.65 2005 2564842 82002616 94.65 801.24 159.88 48973.60 6.89 2010 2858330 90350352 73.27 575.61 118.89 52912.88 5.98 2015 3158083 102194780 54.47 388.58 81.38 59809.62 5.59 2020 3446194 111822660 42.06 269.64 56.82 65935.05 5.49

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 0 0.39 15.59 0.26 44.28 0.00 1990 0 0 0.25 8.45 0.34 86.12 0.00 2000 0 0 0.56 8.60 0.75 404.88 0.01 2002 0 0 0.69 10.07 0.84 656.26 0.02 2005 0 0 0.50 7.34 0.64 638.03 0.02 2010 0 0 0.09 0.98 0.30 284.88 -0.01 2015 0 0 0.09 -0.34 0.17 384.66 0.00 2020 0 0 -0.01 -2.67 0.05 -16.70 -0.03

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.55% 0.12% 0.17% 0.04% 1990 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 0.39% 0.15% 0.23% 0.02% 2000 0.00% 0.00% 0.48% 0.78% 0.42% 1.02% 0.20% 2002 0.00% 0.00% 0.69% 1.09% 0.51% 1.52% 0.36% 2005 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.92% 0.40% 1.32% 0.31% 2010 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 0.17% 0.25% 0.54% -0.11% 2015 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% -0.09% 0.21% 0.65% 0.01% 2020 0.00% 0.00% -0.03% -0.98% 0.08% -0.03% -0.63% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.227 - Ver. 2.226) in Sacramento Emission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in Sacramento Emission Inventorie s (relative to Ver. 2.226) Sacramento Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle In ventories

(Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

Sacramento Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle In ventories With Changes to COG Speeds (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.227)

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 28 Table 14: San Diego Air Basin Emission Impacts fro m New Speeds

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1097560 33496236 297.15 2685.02 169.93 23470.72 3.55 1990 1874269 64680348 202.07 2126.32 195.56 40414.38 6.20 2000 2227749 73166000 104.39 1016.39 138.54 41279.64 4.91 2002 2373918 79044400 87.20 835.47 124.00 44595.10 4.90 2005 2571104 83761520 75.88 692.42 109.90 47455.96 5.08 2010 2748386 87558408 56.67 482.32 82.72 49319.84 4.84 2015 2966158 94097624 43.91 335.17 60.13 53104.29 4.81 2020 3177690 100357630 36.28 247.97 46.11 57053.48 4.97

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1097560 33496236 297.15 2685.02 169.93 23470.72 3.55 1990 1874269 64680348 202.07 2126.32 195.56 40414.38 6.20 2000 2227749 73166000 104.39 1016.39 138.54 41279.64 4.91 2002 2373918 79044400 87.72 840.83 124.32 45057.07 4.93 2005 2571104 83761520 76.24 696.02 110.10 47881.50 5.11 2010 2748386 87558408 56.81 484.11 82.78 49584.72 4.86 2015 2966158 94097624 44.19 339.19 60.27 54017.91 4.90 2020 3177690 100357630 36.43 250.64 46.21 57845.01 5.04

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2002 0 0 0.52 5.36 0.32 461.97 0.03 2005 0 0 0.36 3.60 0.21 425.54 0.03 2010 0 0 0.14 1.79 0.06 264.88 0.02 2015 0 0 0.28 4.02 0.14 913.62 0.09 2020 0 0 0.15 2.66 0.10 791.53 0.08

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1990 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2002 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 0.64% 0.26% 1.04% 0.51% 2005 0.00% 0.00% 0.48% 0.52% 0.19% 0.90% 0.52% 2010 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 0.37% 0.07% 0.54% 0.47% 2015 0.00% 0.00% 0.63% 1.20% 0.24% 1.72% 1.84% 2020 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 1.07% 0.22% 1.39% 1.56% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.227 - Ver. 2.226) in San Diego E mission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in San Diego Emission Inventories (relative to Ver. 2.226) San Diego Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inv entories (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

San Diego Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inv entories With Changes to COG Speeds (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.227)

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 29 Table 15: San Francisco Air Basin Emission Impacts from New Speeds

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 3577805 104633350 811.63 7313.42 546.00 65112.39 9.87 1990 4628184 140980770 459.30 4660.59 463.01 79310.57 13.4 2 2000 5519282 164071820 251.76 2326.24 311.13 88033.75 10.0 6 2002 5644236 169344130 212.71 1964.83 286.59 91055.96 9.72 2005 5964264 175417250 177.12 1532.31 242.99 94489.30 10.0 1 2010 6401483 186231760 132.16 1089.44 178.65 106644.50 10. 07 2015 6842192 199615200 96.80 740.79 122.56 116166.60 10.10 2020 7203858 209594370 72.97 509.05 86.28 122493.60 10.20

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 3577805 104633350 811.63 7313.42 546.00 65112.39 9.87 1990 4628184 140980770 459.30 4660.59 463.01 79310.57 13.4 2 2000 5519282 164071820 259.40 2416.68 317.13 93331.35 10.2 8 2002 5644236 169344130 219.54 2041.04 292.02 96807.51 9.95 2005 5964264 175417250 182.01 1589.66 246.91 100448.90 10. 28 2010 6401483 186231760 131.77 1083.81 179.30 106597.10 9.9 8 2015 6842192 199615200 96.03 725.23 122.57 114287.00 9.86 2020 7203858 209594370 72.73 498.46 86.38 121893.30 10.05

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 0 0 7.63 90.45 5.99 5297.60 0.22 2002 0 0 6.83 76.21 5.43 5751.55 0.24 2005 0 0 4.89 57.35 3.91 5959.60 0.27 2010 0 0 -0.39 -5.63 0.65 -47.40 -0.09 2015 0 0 -0.77 -15.56 0.01 -1879.60 -0.23 2020 0 0 -0.24 -10.58 0.10 -600.30 -0.15

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1990 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2000 0.00% 0.00% 3.03% 3.89% 1.93% 6.02% 2.16% 2002 0.00% 0.00% 3.21% 3.88% 1.89% 6.32% 2.44% 2005 0.00% 0.00% 2.76% 3.74% 1.61% 6.31% 2.67% 2010 0.00% 0.00% -0.29% -0.52% 0.37% -0.04% -0.91% 2015 0.00% 0.00% -0.80% -2.10% 0.01% -1.62% -2.32% 2020 0.00% 0.00% -0.33% -2.08% 0.11% -0.49% -1.51% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.227 - Ver. 2.226) in San Francis co Emission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in San Francisco Emission Invento ries (relative to Ver. 2.226) San Francisco Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inventories

(Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

San Francisco Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle Inventories With Changes to COG Speeds (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.227)

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 30 Table 16: San Joaquin Valley Air Basin Emission Im pacts from New Speeds

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1023520 35562160 258.74 2540.86 241.26 27640.65 13.54 1990 1679639 59095444 221.82 2254.52 317.67 43622.46 23.06 2000 2330556 77028680 149.58 1362.70 309.37 53628.51 14.82 2002 2487499 83510824 125.65 1103.89 297.27 57072.38 13.14 2005 2729342 89859968 114.61 921.78 288.39 61565.61 12.60 2010 3159172 103175800 90.84 675.24 222.08 68293.25 9.88 2015 3468090 116115740 67.54 451.85 152.23 77351.02 8.18 2020 3811652 129483420 52.37 315.08 106.97 87781.16 7.48

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 1023520 35562160 258.70 2527.80 240.91 27637.42 13.54 1990 1679639 59095444 221.85 2249.25 317.41 43618.66 23.06 2000 2330556 77028680 150.75 1374.49 309.54 54170.14 14.83 2002 2487499 83510824 126.64 1115.36 297.49 57753.48 13.15 2005 2729342 89859968 115.45 932.66 288.57 62379.82 12.63 2010 3159172 103175800 91.47 684.46 222.24 69335.46 9.94 2015 3468090 116115740 68.11 460.72 152.40 79022.63 8.30 2020 3811652 129483420 52.73 320.60 107.07 89350.41 7.59

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 0 -0.04 -13.06 -0.34 -3.23 0.00 1990 0 0 0.03 -5.27 -0.25 -3.80 0.00 2000 0 0 1.18 11.80 0.16 541.63 0.01 2002 0 0 0.99 11.46 0.22 681.10 0.01 2005 0 0 0.84 10.89 0.18 814.21 0.02 2010 0 0 0.63 9.22 0.16 1042.21 0.05 2015 0 0 0.57 8.88 0.16 1671.61 0.12 2020 0 0 0.35 5.51 0.11 1569.25 0.11

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% 0.00% -0.02% -0.51% -0.14% -0.01% 0.00% 1990 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% -0.23% -0.08% -0.01% 0.01% 2000 0.00% 0.00% 0.79% 0.87% 0.05% 1.01% 0.04% 2002 0.00% 0.00% 0.79% 1.04% 0.07% 1.19% 0.09% 2005 0.00% 0.00% 0.73% 1.18% 0.06% 1.32% 0.19% 2010 0.00% 0.00% 0.69% 1.37% 0.07% 1.53% 0.53% 2015 0.00% 0.00% 0.85% 1.96% 0.11% 2.16% 1.43% 2020 0.00% 0.00% 0.67% 1.75% 0.10% 1.79% 1.49% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.227 - Ver. 2.226) in San Joaquin Emission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in San Joaquin Emission Inventori es (relative to Ver. 2.226) San Joaquin Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle I nventories

(Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

San Joaquin Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle I nventories With Changes to COG Speeds (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.227)

### March 17, 2006

Appendix F - Activity Tech Memo.doc F- 

### 31 Table 17: South Coast Air Basin Emission Impacts f rom New Speeds

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 6132212 180033150 1293.57 11068.61 836.95 119653.70 2 0.28 1990 9485851 284595070 970.75 9331.86 902.00 172100.40 30. 65 2000 11074958 321947740 530.31 4701.98 641.59 179635.30 22 .91 2002 11606219 343506050 434.20 3739.80 571.44 190507.20 21 .88 2005 11270981 329753600 336.91 2705.51 475.15 184343.70 21 .02 2010 12119336 350421920 250.49 1868.12 371.71 195277.20 20 .02 2015 12683695 362652060 192.04 1294.47 260.23 207396.40 19 .04 2020 13184638 376647260 150.97 909.32 183.10 217009.20 18.38

Cal. Year Population VMT*(1000) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 6132212 180033150 1293.57 11068.61 836.95 119653.70 2 0.28 1990 9485851 284595070 970.75 9331.86 902.00 172100.40 30. 65 2000 11074958 321947740 545.89 4824.47 645.58 188003.30 23 .41 2002 11606219 343506050 445.05 3830.92 575.38 199174.60 22 .37 2005 11270981 329753600 343.60 2762.98 477.88 192241.40 21 .50 2010 12119336 350421920 254.92 1912.78 373.64 204573.60 20 .64 2015 12683695 362652060 193.27 1308.38 261.55 213273.30 19 .43 2020 13184638 376647260 151.86 921.66 184.01 223890.50 18.89

Cal. Year Population VMT(miles) ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 0 0 15.58 122.49 3.99 8368.00 0.49 2002 0 0 10.86 91.12 3.94 8667.40 0.49 2005 0 0 6.70 57.48 2.73 7897.70 0.48 2010 0 0 4.43 44.66 1.92 9296.40 0.62 2015 0 0 1.23 13.91 1.31 5876.90 0.39 2020 0 0 0.89 12.33 0.92 6881.30 0.51

Cal. Year Population VMT ROG_Tot 1 CO_Tot NOx_Tot CO2_Tot PM10_Tot 2
1980 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1990 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2000 0.00% 0.00% 2.94% 2.61% 0.62% 4.66% 2.16% 2002 0.00% 0.00% 2.50% 2.44% 0.69% 4.55% 2.23% 2005 0.00% 0.00% 1.99% 2.12% 0.57% 4.28% 2.26% 2010 0.00% 0.00% 1.77% 2.39% 0.52% 4.76% 3.09% 2015 0.00% 0.00% 0.64% 1.07% 0.50% 2.83% 2.07% 2020 0.00% 0.00% 0.59% 1.36% 0.50% 3.17% 2.77% ROG_Tot 1 - This includes running, starting, idle exhaust em issions and emissions from all

evaporative processes. PM10_Tot 2 - Total emissions from running, starting, idle pro cesses, and from tire wear and

brake wear. Difference (Ver. 2.227 - Ver. 2.226) in South Coast Emission Inventories (tons per day)

Percentage Change in South Coast Emission Inventori es (relative to Ver. 2.226) South Coast Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle I nventories

(Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.226)

South Coast Summer Episodic On-Road Motor Vehicle I nventories With Changes to COG Speeds (Calculated Using EMFAC2007 draft ver 2.227)

### March 17, 2006

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### 32

APPENDIX: VMT Matching Algorithm
This Appendix was taken from EMFAC Modeling Change Technical Memo, “Updating Estimates of Vehicle Miles Traveled,” July 2002, Ap pendix 1, pages 31 –36 . Minor edits were made to reflect the addition of base years 2000, 20 01, 2002, and 2003.
New VMT is updated in the EMFAC model using a VMT m atching algorithm. Key to understanding the VMT matching algorithm is that VM T is the product of the vehicle population, vehicle accrual and weekday adjustment factors.

VMT cy,a,v,f 

### = (POP cy,a,v,f,age 

### *ACCRUAL a,v,f,age 

### ) * WAF v 

### (1)

where: VMT cy,a,v,f 

### = VMT for a given c alendar y ear, geographic a rea, v ehicle class, and f uel type. POP cy,a,v,f,age 

### = Population for a given c alendar y ear, geographic a rea, v ehicle class, f uel type, and vehicle age

. WAF v 

### = Weekday adjustment factors by v ehicle class.
The VMT matching algorithm first checks to determin e if target VMTs have been supplied for base years 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, or 2003. This i s important in assessing whether accrual rates should be changed or not. This step is descr ibed below under the heading “Base year adjustments.” Next, the algorithm calculates VMTs for all forecast calendar years. If the base year VMT is changed, the new accrual rates are used in calculating the VMTs for the forecast years. The algorithm then compares the VMTs for th e forecast years with target VMTs. If they are different, the vehicle population growth rates are adjusted to match the target VMTs. This step is described in the section titled “Forecast y ears.”

Base year adjustments
In EMFAC 2007 the base years are 1999 through 2003. These years are referred to as base years because the model contains vehicle population data for these calendar years. The vehicle populations for base years are determined f rom analyzing DMV vehicle registration data. For all other calendar years the vehicle pop ulation is calculated using either the back casting (1970-1998) or the forecasting (2004-2040) algorithm. Equation 1 (above) shows that the VMT for the base years (Base_VMT) is calculated from the product of the known vehicle population, vehicle accrual and the weekday adjustm ent factors.

Base year adjustments to vehicle accrual rates are necessary when the Base_VMT calculated in the model using equation 1, is different than th e target VMT submitted by the TPA. For example, suppose a TPA, using a transportation mode l, calculates that the target VMT in 2000 is 1,250,000 miles per day. The model must match t his estimate along with those for future calendar years. To match the target VMT for CY 200 0, only vehicle accrual rates can be changed while maintaining the relationship shown in equation 1. In the VMT matching algorithm, a ratio of the target versus base VMTs i s calculated. This is noted as:

Ratio v 

### = Target_VMT v 

### / Base_VMT v 

### (2)

where:

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### 33 Subscript “v” refers to vehicle class.

The ratio is then applied to the current accrual ra tes to calculate new accrual rates.

New_ ACCRUAL a,v,f,age 

### = ACCRUAL a,v,f,age 

### * Ratio v 

### (3)
This calculation is done for each vehicle age, fuel type, and vehicle class and is specific to the geographic area. This is because accrual rates var y by these factors. These new accrual rates are then used in recalculating VMTs for all f uture years. These new VMTs are then used in subsequent calculation of population growth rates to match future year target VMTs.

Forecast Years
The EMFAC2007 model forecasts vehicle population an d VMT estimates for calendar years 2004-2040. VMT for future years is still calculate d using equation 1 (above). However, in equation 1 vehicle population is now a function of the base year population (2003), population growth rates and vehicle attrition. For the purpos es of explaining this algorithm assume that vehicle attrition is negligible. In this case the vehicle population in 2004 calendar year is simply a product of the known population in 2003 an d the population growth rate in 2004. Similarly, the vehicle population in 2005 is a prod uct of the forecasted population in 2004 and the population growth rate for calendar year 2005. If this process is simplified then one arrives at equation 4, which states that the population for a forecast year is simply a product of 2003 calendar year and population growth rates.

POP 2004 

### = POP 2003 

### * (1 + pgr 2004 

### ) POP 2005 

### = POP 2004 

### * (1 + pgr 2005 

### )

..

.. POP 2005 

### ={POP 2003 

### * (1 + pgr 2004 

### )} *(1 + pgr 2005 

### )

POP cy,a,v,f,age 

### = POP 2003 

### * { (1 + pgr 2004 

### )*(1 + pgr 2005 

### )+...} (4)

where: POP 2003 

### = Vehicle population data from DMV Pgr 2004 

### = Population growth rates for 2004 calendar year Pgr 2005 

### = Population growth rates for 2005 calendar year

Equation 4 shows in a simple way how vehicle popula tions are forecast. In reality the POP2003 varies by area, vehicle class, and fuel typ e. Hence, the population growth rates also vary by calendar year, area, vehicle class, and fue l type. The vehicle populations, calculated using equation 4, are then used in equation 1 to ca lculate VMT for a given calendar year. From this simple explanation on how VMTs are calcul ated for future years it is important to grasp that if a TPA submits a target VMTs for a for ecast year this VMT can be matched by adjusting the population growth rates. For example , if a TPA supplies a target VMT estimate for 2005 calendar year this target VMT is matched b y adjusting the population growth rates for 2004 and 2005 calendar years. It is assumed that t he vehicle population grows linearly between the base year (2003) and the forecast year (2005). The linear increase in population

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### 34 growth rates results in a linear increase in VMT. This will become evident in the following example.

The VMT matching algorithm can be explained by the following example where region X has only submitted a target VMT of 2500 miles per day for c alendar year 2005. Table A-1 shows the population growth rates for region X. The grow th rate for 2003 is 0 since this is a base year. Thereafter, the vehicle population grows by 10% in 2004 and 15% in 2005. In this example, assume that the VMT for 2003 calendar year , calculated as a product of the known vehicle population and vehicle accrual rate, is 150 1.97 miles per day. Further, assume that VMT grows at the same rate as population growth rat es. Note this is not always the case since shifts in the model year population distribut ion can result in a different VMT growth hence the need to iterate on the population growth rates.
Table A-1 Example Data for Region X

2003 2004 2005 Population Growth Rates 0 0.1 0.15 Modeled VMTs 1501.97 1652.17 1900 Target VMT 2500

In this example, the VMT matching algorithm first c alculates VMTs for 2004 and 2005. These are shows as “Modeled VMTs” in Table A-1. Using eq uation 4 the VMT for 2004 is 1501.97 * (1+ 0.1) = 1652.17 miles per day. Similarly, the V MT for 2005 is 1652.17 (1+0.15) = 1900 mile per day.
Having calculated “Modeled VMT” for calendar year 2 005, the VMT algorithm notes that this estimate is different than the target VMT estimate.

The VMT matching algorithm then proceeds through th e following steps noted S1, S2 and so

on.
Begin loop

S1: The model first calculated a ratio based on di viding the target VMT by the Modeled VMT for 2005. Ratio = Target_VMT 2005 

### / Modeled_VMT 2005 

### = 2500/1900 = 1.3157895
S2: Check for convergence. If the value of (Ratio – 1) is less than 0.00001 then skip further iterations. When this convergence criteria has bee n met it assumes that the modeled VMT for 2005 matches the target VMT. In this examp le, the Ratio is 1.3157895 hence proceed to the next step.
S3: Calculate the current compounded growth factor for calendar year 2005. This compounded growth factor for 2005 is: gf = (1)*(1.1 )*(1.15) = 1.265.
S4: The compounded growth factor indicates that th e VMT increases by 26.5% from 2003 to 2005 calendar year. This compounded growth factor is then used to calculate a linear

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### 35 growth factor (lgf) for calendar years 2004 and 200 5. This growth factor assumes a linear and equal growth in VMT in calendar years 2004 and 2005.
The linear growth factor: lgf = EXP(ln(gf) / n) = 1.124722188
In this equation n is number of years, which is 2 i n this example. The linear growth factor indicates that the annualized growth rates is 12.5% for 2004 and 2005 calendar years. Note this lgf is for the growth in “Modeled VMT.”
S5: The next step is to calculate what the annuali zed growth rate is for the new target VMT. This is done by calculating what the incremental gr owth factor is beyond what was calculated in S4. This is done by calculating the incremental growth factor: igf = EXP(ln(Ratio)/n) = 1.14707867. This incremental gr owth factor is then multiplied by the linear growth factor (lgf) to calculate the new ann ualized population growth rate.
Calculate new population growth rate: NGR = lgf * graf – 1 = 0.2901448

In this example, the new annualized growth rate is 29% for 2004 and 2005 calendar years. This new growth rate is then used to calculate VMTs for calendar years 2004 and 2005.
S6: Update growth rates and calculate new VMTs. T able A-2 shows the new growth rates for calendar years 2004 and 2005. Note the model assum es equal growth in 2004 and 2005 calendar years. Hence, population and VMT will gro w linearly between 2003 and 2005 calendar years. In this example, the VMT for 2004 and 2005 are recalculated using the new population growth rates. Using equation 4, the new VMT for 2004 = 1501.97*(1+0.29) =1937.76. This calculation is the n repeated for calendar year 2005.
Table A-2 Calculation of New Population Growth Rate s and VMTs

2003 2004 2005 NGR 0 0.2901448 0.2901448 New VMT 1501.97 1937.76 2499.99

S7: Goes to the top of the loop where additional ch ecks are performed convergence.

End loop
In this example, the TPA submitted a target VMT for 2005. This VMT was matched is by adjusting the population growth rates for both 2004 and 2005 calendar years. These new growth rates were then used in calculating new VMTs for 2004 and 2005 calendar years.
If the TPA had submitted target VMTs for 2005 and 2 010 calendar years then the VMT matching algorithm would first match the 2005 VMT b y following the steps outlined above. This would involve recalculating the VMTs for 2004 and 2005 calendar years assuming a linear and equal growth rate. To match the 2010 target VM T, the algorithm would recalculate VMTs for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 calendar years. Again the algorithm would calculate a linear and equal growth rate for these years. It i s important to note that since the VMT algorithm is matching VMTs for individual calendar years (for example 2005 and 2010), the

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### 36 population growth rates for calendar years 2004-200 5 may be different than that for calendar years 2006-2010. This reflects different growth as sumptions. However, the growth rates within the calendar years is the same.

The VMT matching algorithm then writes out changes to the population growth rate files, vehicle accrual rate files, and new forecasted VMTs for all future calendar years.