OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – February 2020 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Meetings – January 30 – January 31, 2020

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, January 27, 2020 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

January-March 2020 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

April-June 2020 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

FY 2020 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

FY 2020 /

FY 2021 /

FY 2022 /

Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2020 /

Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2021 /

Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2020 /

Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2021 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / /

10-year note (Feb) /

10-year note reopening (Mar/Apr) / / - /

30-year bond (Feb) /

30-year bond reopening (Mar/Apr) / /

2-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / /

5-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / /

7-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / /

30-year TIPS (Feb) /

10-year TIPS reopening (Mar) /

5-year TIPS (Apr) /

2-year FRN reopening (Feb/Mar) /

2-year FRN (Apr) /

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates2

52-week bill size (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Feb ‘20 – Apr ‘20 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding Feb ‘20 – Apr ‘20 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2020 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2020 /

CMB issuance Feb ‘20 – Apr ‘20 (size/date) / / / /

 

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Fed does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privatelyheld auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.

2 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 2 hours per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing 

data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. An agency may not conduct or sponsor, and a 

person is not required to respond to, a collection of information unless it displays a valid OMB control number. The valid OMB control number for this information is 

1505-0261. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to the 

Department of the Treasury (Office of Debt Management, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20220).

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic and fiscal forecasts for FY2020 and FY2021. Do you believe the current 

financing schedule is well-suited to meet Treasury’s financing needs though the end of FY2020? FY2021?

2. How have market and liquidity conditions in the Treasury bill market evolved since the commencement of the 

Federal Reserve’s reserve management purchases in October 2019. What are your current expectations for the 

time period, amount, and composition of these purchases? What are your longer-term expectations for the 

composition of purchases based on your expectations for the long-run composition of the balance sheet?

What is the minimum amount of privately-held Treasury bill supply per CUSIP (after final reopening) that would 

still maintain benchmark liquidity?

__________ Tuesday maturities __________ Thursday maturities

(4- & 8-week bills) (13- & 26-week bills)*

*Because 52-week bills are issued only once every 4 weeks, please exclude this incremental supply in your 

evaluation of privately-held supply for Thursday maturities.

What is the minimum announced auction size that would still maintain benchmark liquidity?

______ 4-week ______ 8-week ______ 13-week ______ 26-week ______ 52-week

3. When Treasury first introduces the new 20-year nominal coupon bond, what is the minimum auction size and 

total issue size (after final reopening) that is necessary to ensure benchmark liquidity, assuming it is auctioned 

monthly and issued quarterly?

_____/_____ Minimum Auction Size __________ Minimum CUSIP supply

(new issue / reopening) (including new issues and reopenings)

For the new 20-year bond, should Treasury consider an auction format similar to TIPS, where the auction would 

occur the same week as the TIPS auction, settle at month-end, but have a dated and maturity date of mid-month? 

What are the pros and cons of this approach? Is there another preferred structure?