Agenda – November 2015 Refunding 

Treasury Dealer Meetings – October 29- October 30, 2015 

Dealer ___________________ 

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, October 26, 2015 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury officials 

this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Marketable Borrowing Estimates 

 Central 

Estimate 

Range that would not 

surprise you 

 Low/High 

 October-December 2015 / 

 Ending Cash Balance / 

 January-March 2015 / 

 Ending Cash Balance / 

 FY 2016 Total Net Marketable Borrowing 

 FY 2017 Total Net Marketable Borrowing / 

 FY 2018 Total Net Marketable Borrowing / 

 

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

 FY 2016 / 

 FY 2017 / 

 FY 2018 / 

 Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2015 

 Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2016 

 Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2015 

 Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2016 

 

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates 

 3-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

 10-year note (Nov) / 

 10-year note reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - / 

 30-year bond (Nov) / 

 30-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / 

 2-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

 5-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan ) / / / / - / / 

 7-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan ) / / / / - / / 

 10-year TIPS reopening (Nov) 

 5-year TIPS reopening (Dec) 

 10-year TIPS (Jan) 

 2-year FRN reopening (Nov/Dec) 

 2-year FRN (Jan) 

 

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates 

 52-week bill size (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / / - / / 

 Total change in bills outstanding 11/15- 1/16 / 

 Total change in bills outstanding FY 2016 / 

 CMB issuance Nov‘15 – Jan ‘16 (size/date) / / / / 

Discussion Topics 

1. Please discuss your latest economic and fiscal forecasts for FY2016 and FY2017. Do you believe the current financing 

schedule is well-suited to meet Treasury’s financing needs though the end of FY2016? 

2. Please discuss current liquidity and trading conditions in the bills market. How do you see these conditions evolving in 

the coming weeks and months? 

 

3. To what extent would additional settlement-and-maturity cycles for Treasury bills be beneficial? For example, instead 

of having all bills settle and mature on Thursdays, what are potential advantages and disadvantages to having some bills 

(existing or new bill maturities) settle and mature on Wednesdays, or Tuesdays, etc.? Would additional cycles be 

attractive from an investment standpoint and from a settlement process standpoint? 
Part 2: 

The Treasury Department’s Office of Debt Management (ODM) would like your perspectives on current Treasury auction sizes. 

This information would be used to help test ODM’s debt-issuance modeling assumptions, and does not reflect potential policy 

decisions. The aggregate response from a similar survey conducted in March 2015can be found online at 

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Pages/dealer-agenda-survey.aspx. 

For each of the 14 securities that Treasury currently issues regularly, we would be interested in your views on the following 

matters: 

1) All else equal, what is the minimum auction size, per auction, needed to maintain benchmark liquidity? Specifically, 

what is the smallest auction size (weekly for bills, monthly for coupons) necessary to support “on-the-run” issue 

liquidity in the secondary market? 

2) All else equal, what is the maximum auction size, per auction, that could be issued without causing “significant yield 

deviations” from current fair value? This fair value could, for example, be as measured by your spline, or other 

analytical models. 

3) All else equal, what is the maximum change in auction size (+/- X $billions) that can be implemented between two 

consecutive new issuances without causing “significant yield deviations”? 

 

If you have any questions, please contact Dr. Allen Zhang, Senior Financial Modeler, at 202-622-2836. Please complete and 

submit the table below to DebtManagement@treasury.gov or Allen.Zhang@treasury.gov by 12:00 Noon ET on Monday 

October 26, 2015. 

Thank you very much for your continuing collaboration. 

Tranche Minimum Auction Size 

needed to maintain 

Benchmark Liquidity 

($bil) 

Maximum Auction Size that 

could be issued without causing 

significant yield deviations from 

fair value ($bil) 

Maximum change 

(+/-) in auction 

size between new 

issuances ($bil) 

Bills 

4-week 

13-week 

26-week 

52-week 

Coupons 

2-year 

3-year 

5-year 

7-year 

10-year 

30-year 

TIPS 

5-year 

10-year 

30-year 

FRNs 

2-year 

Additional Comments: