Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb

F
Office of Debt Management

Financing 

Near Term Outlook 

FY 2009 Q2 and Q3 Outlook: Estimated marketable borrowing

• $493 billion January-March • $165 billion April-June• Weakness in receipts as well as increases in outlays relat

economic recovery programs will lead to greater marketborrowing needs

• The decline in state and local government series securiti

increases marketable borrowing needs
Office of Debt Management

 Q1 marketable financing 

was a record in both net and gross issuance. 

 Cash outflows totaling 

$72 billion on May 15 result from interest payments and maturing 3-, 5-,10-year notes and the called 30-year bond.

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupo

Paymen

February 15, 2009 36 25 February 28, 2009 18 3 March 15, 2009 15 1 March 31, 2009 18 4 April 15, 2009 15 3 April 30, 2009 19 4 May 15, 2009 52 20 May 31, 2009 19 4 

($ billions)

Issued Matured

SOMA 

Activity * 

Net Cash 

Raised Issued Matur

Bills (includes SFP's) $1,955.1 $1,578.3 $0.0 $376.9 $4,632.9 $4,101Nominal coupons $347.8 $168.6 ($1.2) $179.2 $814.6 $626.

TIPS $13.2 $0.0 $1.2 $13.2 $61.9 $21.8 Total $2,316.2 $1,746.9 $0.0 $569.3 $5,509.5 $4,749

* Note: Negative SOMA activity represents redemptions.  Positive SOMA activity represents additional issuance of securities, made possible by redemptions in maturing securities with the same settlement date; these are offsetting transactions and are net cash neutral.

Treasury Marketable Financing

October 1, 2008 - December 31, 2008 October 1, 2

Q1-FY 2009 
Office of Debt Management

 Managing volatility of cash 

balances remains challenging.

 Net marketable borrowing for 

the first quarter was a record $569 billion and was primarily financed through bills. 

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

"Net Cash" 

Fiscal Quarter

97.8

144.2

-78.5

52.3

92.5

158.0

-92.2

45.0 41.9

125.7

-138.7

105.2 86.8

191.

-250-200-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

I-05 II III IV I-06 II III IV I-07 II III IV I-08 II 

$ billions

 Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPS

Note: Includes SOMA redemptions and SFP's.

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

255075

100125150175

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun J

$ billions

Note: Data throu

Excludes Supplementary Financing Program. As of January 28, Treasury has $175 billion held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

K ey R e ceip t D ates 1s t o f M o nth – In dividua l w ithh eld ta xe s 

M a r. 15, Jun . 1 5, Se pt. 1 5, D ec . 1 5- Co rpo rate T axe s Ja n. 1 5, A pr. 15 , Jun . 1 5, S ep t. 15 In divid ua l N on -w ithh eld Ta xe s 

Key Outlay Dates 

1st of each month – Medicare, SSI, 3rd of each month Main Social Secu

2nd/3rd/4th Wed of each month Soc. 

Feb. 15, May 15, Aug. 15, Nov. 15 Feb 1 - April 15 – Individual tax re
Office of Debt Management

 Bills outstanding remain elevated. Net weekly bills issuance continues 

to provide a major portion of our financing.

Weekly Bills Outstanding

FY 2004-2009

$600$700$800$900

$1,000$1,100$1,200$1,300$1,400$1,500$1,600

10/3

10/1010/1710/24

10/31

1

3/6

3/13

3/20 4/17 4/10 4/3 3/27 4/24

5/1

5/8

5/15

5/22

5/29

6/5

6/12

6/19

6/26

7/3

7/10

7/17

7/24

7/31

8/7

8/14

8/21

8/28

9/4

9/11

9/189/25

FY '04 FY '05 FY FY '07 FY '08 FY 

Net Weekly Bills Issued

FY 2003-2009

-$40-$30-$20-$10

$0

$10$20$30$40

10/3

10/1010/1710/24

10/3

1

3/6

3/13 3/20 4/17 4/10 4/3 3/27 4/24 5/1

5/8

5/15

5/22

5/29

6/5

6/12

6/19

6/26

7/3

7/10

7/17

7/24

7/31

8/7

8/14

8/21

8/28

9/4

9/11

9/189/25

FY '04 FY '05 FY FY '07 FY '08 FY 
Office of Debt Management

 State and Local Government 

net issuance remains negative for the sixth consecutive quarter. 

 For the twentieth 

consecutive quarter, Savings Bonds did not raise any cash. 

 The 2-3 year and 10-year 

sectors begin to trend higher.

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issua

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bond

Note: Data through December 31, 2008. Excludes CMB's..

Treasury Q uarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketab

 Fiscal Q uarter

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.0

1.1

16.6

24.4

16.3

10.7

-2.2

4.1

-6.8

15.7

21.0

15.7

-8.5

-5.7

-20-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I 04 II III IV I 05 II III IV I 06 II III IV I 07 II III IV I 08 

$billions

StGoSaFo
Office of Debt Management

 Adjusted TIPS outstanding 

have started to plateau.

 Nominal coupon issuance 

has increased sharply in response to increased fiscal needs.

Year-over-Year Growth Rates

Oct-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 May-07 Dec-07 

Period ending ...

Rate

Noms TIPs

TIPS Issuance and Outstanding

Fiscal Year

$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 

$ Billions

10-Y 5-Y 20-Y 30-Y Inflation-Adjusted Outstanding (rhs) P
Office of Debt Management

Debt Portfolio Considerations

Assumptions used in the next 3 charts: Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally acros

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auc

 These sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of Janu

2009 and assume the outstanding level of bills on December 31

 Projections exclude cash management bills.Using the above assumptions, over the next 5 years:

 Average maturity of total outstanding and average maturity of 

settle to about 52 and 51 months, respectively. 

 The percent of debt with 3 years or less to maturity stabilizes a
Office of Debt Management

 Average maturity of issuance 

peaked in FY 2008.

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, current issuance patterns would lead to a steadily increasing share of medium to longer-term debt.

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by 

Fiscal Year 

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

Net financing projections for FY 2009-10 are based on internal estimates; projections for FY 2011-13 are based on OMB 2

financing needs are spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initiaamounts as of January 15, 2009 and assume the outstanding level of bills on December 31, 2008. All projections exclude C

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2

months

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

Net financing projections for FY 2009-10 are based on internal estimates; projections for FY 2011-13 are based on OMB 2009 MSR Budge

are spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced cassume the outstanding level of bills on December 31, 2008. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts. 

1 Quarterly data are actuals through December 31, 2008. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter average. 2 Quarterly data are actuals through December 31, 2008. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 
Office of Debt Management

 Short-term debt as a 

percent of the overall portfolio continues to rise as a result of the introduction of the 52-week bill and monthly 3-year notes.

 Maturing 2-year, 3-

year and 5-year notes lead to increased nearand medium-term financing needs. 

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 M

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Net financing projections for FY 2009-10 are based on internal estimates; projections for FY 2011-13 are based on OMB 2009 

financing needs are spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizamounts as of January 15, 2009 and assume the outstanding level of bills on December 31, 2008. All projections exclude CMB 

Coupons Maturing*

February 15, 2009-May 15, 2038

0

1020304050607080

15-FEB-2009

28-FEB-2009

15-MAR-2009

31-MAR-2009

15-APR-2009

30-APR-2009

15-MAY-2009

31-MAY-2009

15-JUN-2009

30-JUN-2009

15-JUL-2009

31-JUL-2009

15-AUG-2009

31-AUG-2009

15-SEP-2009

30-SEP-2009

15-OCT-2009

31-OCT-2009

15-NOV-2009

30-NOV-2009

15-DEC-2009

31-DEC-2009

15-JAN-2010

31-JAN-2010

15-FEB-2010

28-FEB-2010

15-MAR-2010

31-MAR-2010

15-APR-2010

30-APR-2010

15-MAY-2010

31-MAY-2010

15-JUN-2010

30-JUN-2010

15-JUL-2010

31-JUL-2010

15-AUG-2010

31-AUG-2010

15-SEP-2010

30-SEP-2010

15-OCT-2010

31-OCT-2010

15-NOV-2010

30-NOV-2010

15-DEC-2010

31-DEC-2010

15-JAN-2011

15-FEB-2011

28-FEB-2011

31-MAR-2011

15-APR-2011

30-APR-2011

31-MAY-2011

30-JUN-2011

31-JUL-2011

15-AUG-2011

31-AUG-2011

30-SEP-2011

31-OCT-2011

15-NOV-2011

30-NOV-2011

15-DEC-2011

31-DEC-2011

15-JAN-2012

31-JAN-2012

15-FEB-2012

29-FEB-2012

31-MAR-2012

15-APR-2012

30-APR-2012

31-MAY-2012

30-JUN-2012

15-JUL-2012

31-JUL-2012

15-AUG-2012

31-AUG-2012

30-SEP-2012

31-OCT-2012

15-NOV-2012

30-NOV-2012

31-DEC-2012

31-JAN-2013

15-FEB-2013

28-FEB-2013

31-MAR-2013

15-APR-2013

30-APR-2013

15-MAY-2013

31-MAY-2013

30-JUN-2013

15-JUL-2013

31-JUL-2013

15-AUG-2013

31-AUG-2013

30-SEP-2013

31-OCT-2013

15-NOV-2013

30-NOV-2013

31-DEC-2013

15-JAN-2014

15-FEB-2014

15-MAY-2014

15-JUL-2014

15-AUG-2014

15-NOV-2014

15-JAN-2015

15-FEB-2015

15-MAY-2015

15-JUL-2015

15-AUG-2015

15-NOV-2015

15-JAN-2016

15-FEB-2016

15-MAY-2016

15-JUL-2016

15-AUG-2016

15-NOV-2016

15-JAN-2017

15-FEB-2017

15-MAY-2017

15-JUL-2017

15-AUG-2017

15-NOV-2017

15-JAN-2018

15-FEB-2018

15-MAY-2018

15-JUL-2018

1AUG2018

$ Billions

10 YR IIS NOTE 10 YR NOTE 2 YR NOTE20 YR IIS BOND 3 YR NOTE 30 YR BOND30 YR IIS BOND 5 YR IIS NOTE 5 YR NOTE

*Based on coupon securities outstanding as of January 13, 2009.
Office of Debt Management

Uncertainty

 Economic and credit market conditions continue to add uncerta

borrowing requirements.

 Volatility in revenues, projected outlays and reduced non-marke

issuance could also lead to increased near-term marketable fina
Office of Debt Management

 State and Local Government 

Series (SLGS) issuance is at the lowest level sinceCY 2000.

 SLGS net pay downs 

continue for the sixth consecutive quarter.

State and Local Governments (SLGS) 

Calendar year

0

102030405060

$ B illio n sGross Issues Redemptions

-20-10

0

10203040

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 

$ B illio n s

Net SLGs
Office of Debt Management

 The decline in 

corporate tax receipts has contributed to additional borrowing needs.

 The Treasury repo 

market, after experiencing dislocations, is gradually readjusting with volumes increasing and fails plateauing.

Rolling 12-Month Growth Rates

-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%

10%20%30%40%

Dec-81 Dec-84 Dec-87 Dec-90 Dec-93 Dec-96 Dec-99 Dec-0

Period ending

Corp Taxes WH Tax nWH Tax

Primary Dealer Treasury Security Settlement Fails

Volumes

0

50

100150200250300350400

1/4/95

6/4/95

11/4/95

4/4/96

9/4/96

2/4/97

7/4/97

12/4/97

5/4/98

10/4/98

3/4/99

8/4/99

1/4/00

6/4/00

11/4/00

4/4/01

9/4/01

2/4/02

7/4/02

12/4/02

5/4/03

10/4/03

3/4/04

8/4/04

1/4/05

6/4/05

11/4/05

4/4/06

$ Billions

Average Daily Primary Dealer Treasury Volume (RHS)

Average Daily Fails to Receive (LHS)

Source: FRBNY FR2004 Settlement Fails Data & FRB H.15

The decrease in fails are not symptomatic of lower volumes. Trading volume actually increased as fails diminished. This shows increased confidence in the market.
Office of Debt Management

 Primary dealers 

currently estimate a FY 2009 deficit of over $1.6 trillion.

 Fiscal deficit 

projections remain volatile given overall uncertainty.

Comparing Deficit Estimates for FY 2009 since February 

100300500700900

1,1001,300

Feb 08 May 08 August 08 Novembe

Estimate Month

Deficit Estimate for FY 2009 (bn, $) OMB CBO Primary Dealers Note: OMB is not expected to release FY 2010 Budget until late February 2009.

FY 09 Deficit Estimates 

Primary 

Dealers* 

Current: 1626 Range based on average absolute forecast error** 1535-1717 1Estimates as of: January 09 Ja

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate.** Ranges based on errors from 2004-2008.*** Based on Primary Dealer feedback on January 29, 2009.