Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb

Ja
Office of Debt Management

Financing 

Near Term Outlook 

 FY 2007 Q2 and Q3 Outlook:

• We estimate net marketable borrowing of $141 billion 

quarter and a pay down of $130 billion next quarter

• Continued strength in receipts and higher than expec

marketable debt issuance are leading to lower financi
Office of Debt Management

 Corporate and individual tax 

receipts remain strong.

 Net non-marketables 

continues to be driven by state and local government securities issuance.

 Maturing securities and 

coupon payments result in large outflows on May 15.

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupo

Paymen

February 15, 2007 35 27 February 28, 2007 23 3 March 15, 2007 0 1 March 31, 2007 24 3 April 15, 2007 0 2 April 30, 2007 22 3 May 15, 2007 55 22 May 31, 2007 21 3 

Treasury Financing Requirements 

(Projected) (Actuals) 

Deficit Funding (Def + / Surplus -) 108 80 

Means of Financing

Change in Cash Balance 22 21 

Net Non-Marketable Financing 4 19 Other* 19 -2 

Net Marketable Financing 63 42 

Net Marketable Financing 63 42 

Bills 33Nominal Notes -5TIPS 19Bonds -4

Notes:

Starting Cash Balance 52 52 

Ending Cash Balance 30 31 

* Includes direct loan activity, changes in accrued interest, checks outstanding, minor miscellaneous transactions, discount and inflation accretion on Treasuries.Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

 October - December 2006
Office of Debt Management

 December 15 corporate tax 

receipts were the second highest on record---slightly lower than the all-time high reached on September 15, 2006.

 Total net marketable 

borrowing for CY 2006 was $153 billion, the third consecutive calendar year decline.

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

Calendar Quarter

17.8

-163.4

74.4

52.1

52.5

15.1

84.2

82.6

111.3

60.3 81.5

113.4

145.9

31.3

89.0

97.8

144.2

-78.5

5

-200-160-120

-80-40

0

4080

120160

I-01 II III IV I-02 II III IV I-03 II III IV I-04 II III IV I-05 II 

$ billions

Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPSBuybacks

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

102030405060708090

100

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju

$ billions

FY 2005FY 2006FY 2007

Note: Data th
Office of Debt Management

 Net SLGS issuance in Q4 

2006 was $13 billion higher than projected. 

 Shares of issuance across all 

maturities remain in line with historic trends.

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarket

 Calendar Quarter

-8.0

-5.0

-10.1

-2.2 -1.4

-1.7

-10.6

0.8

-5.5

-0.1 -0.7

7.6

-2.4

-8.4

7.6

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.0

1.1

24.4

1

16.6

-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I

00

II III IV I

01

II III IV I

02

II III IV I

03

II III IV I

04

II III IV I

05

II 

$billions

State and Local Govt. SeriesSavings BondsForeign Series

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issua

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 20

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bonds 

Note: Data through December 31, 2006.
Office of Debt Management

Debt Portfolio

Assumptions used in the next 4 charts: Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across 

securities, based on hypothetical initial auction sizes in the prior 

 OMB 2007 MSR deficit estimates, except internal Treasury esti

current fiscal year

Using the above assumptions, over the next 5 years: Average maturity of total outstanding debt rises to 57 months 

 Average maturity of issuance settles to around 60 months 

 The percent of debt maturing with 3 years or less to maturity de

percent
Office of Debt Management

 Average maturity of issuance 

temporarily rises following the introduction of quarterly bond issuance and assumed redemption of callable issues.

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, current issuance patterns will lead to a lower share of short-dated securities.

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 

months

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

Net financing projections for FY 2008-2011 are based on OMB 2007 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs a

securities, based on hypothetical initial auction sizes in the prior quarter.

1/ Quarterly data are actuals through December 31, 2006. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter av2/ Quarterly data are actuals through December 31, 2006. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding b

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

Projections for FY 2008-2011 are based on OMB 2007 MSR Budget estimates. Future residual financinacross auctioned securities, based on hypothetical initial auction sizes in the prior quarter.
Office of Debt Management

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, short term debt rollover dynamics remain healthy, near the lower end of historical ranges. 

 Issuance patterns across 

securities over the next 5 years remain relatively stable.

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Projections for FY 2008-2011 are based on OMB 2007 MSR Budget estimates. Future residual financing across auctioned securities, based on hypothetical initial auction sizes in the prior quarter.

Treasury Annual Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Year

-109 -100

-213 -97

204 336

379

216

203

225

206

-300-250-200-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350400450

FY 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 

$ billions

BuOvOv5-5-2-uBil

Projected are 

Projections for FY 2008-2011 are based on OMB 2007 MSR Budget estimates. Future residual proportionally across auctioned securities, based on hypothetical initial auction sizes in the prior q
Office of Debt Management

Uncertainty

 OMB estimates project sharply declining borrowing needs for t

5 years

 Volatility in projected receipts, particularly during refund seaso

lead to greater variation in bill issuance
Office of Debt Management

 Economic growth and 

continued strength in receipts have led to sharply lower deficit estimates.

 OMB will release updated 

FY 2007 deficit estimates on February 5.

 Current coupon pattern 

and issuance amounts will provide approximately $150 billion of new financing in FY07.

Financing Residuals Given Current Issuance Calendar 

Assumes current coupon issuance pattern and issuance amount-- Weekly bill issuance at level

outstanding FY $ amounts equal to December 31, 2006 total outstanding

-350-250-150

-50

50

150250350450550

2007 2008 2009 2010 

Fiscal Years

$ billions

Net financing implied by FY2007 

OMB MSR deficit forecast

Net financing plus average absolute 

difference in OMB estimate

Net financing

minus avg. absolute difference in OMB 

Bars indicate estimated change in financing required in given year for different deficit outcomes

Note: FY 2007 net financing is an internal Treasury estimate.Source: Average historical differences between estimates and actual deficit or surplus are from OMB's 2007 Budget Table 20-7.

FY 07 Deficit Estimates 

Primary Dealers* 

Current: 227 Range based on average absolute forecast error 135-319 Estimates as of: Jan 07 

Note: Ranges based on errors from 2002-2006.

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate.