Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb

No
Office of Debt Management

Financing 

Summary of FY 2008 and Initial FY 2009 O

 FY 2008 deficit was $455 billion versus $163 billion for FY 2007 Net marketable borrowing for FY 2008 was $760 billion (includes 

of SOMA redemptions) compared to $134 billion (includes $15 billSOMA redemptions) in FY 2007

 FY 2008 net non-marketable borrowing was $46 billion in redempt

$44 billion in cash raised in FY 2007

 Net marketable borrowing for Q4 FY 2008 totaled $527 billion (in

billion of SOMA redemptions)

FY 2009 Q1 and Q2 Outlook: Estimated marketable borrowing

• $550 billion October-December• $368 billion January-March• Expenditures related to various economic assistance programs

initiatives, as well as weakness in receipts and a decline state agovernment debt issuance will lead to increased marketable boneeds
Office of Debt Management

 Treasury net 

marketable financing was a record $760 billion in FY 2008. 

 SOMA redemptions of 

$153.9 billion and SFP issuance of $300 billion in FY 2008 accounted for over 8% of total issuance. 

 Large cash outflows 

totaling $75 billion on November 15 result from interest payments and maturing 3-, 5-, and 10-year notes.

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupo

Paymen

November 15, 2008 55 20 November 30, 2008 20 4 December 15, 2008 15 1 December 31, 2008 20 4 January 15, 2009 33 10 January 31, 2009 20 4 February 15, 2009 36 25 February 28, 2009 18 3 

($ billions)

Issued Matured

SOMA 

Activity * 

Net Cash 

Raised Issued Mature

Bills (includes SFP's) $4,632.9 $4,101.2 ($152.0) $531.7 $3,689.9 $3,643

Nominal coupons $814.6 $626.2 ($5.5) $188.5 $662.5 $625.

TIPS $61.9 $21.8 $3.5 $40.1 $70.5 $20.1 Total $5,509.5 $4,749.2 ($153.9) $760.4 $4,422.9 $4,288

* Note: Negative SOMA activity represents redemptions.  Positive SOMA activity represents additional issuance of securities, made possible by redemptions in maturing securities with the same settlement date; these are offsetting transactions and are net cash neutral.

Treasury Marketable Financing

October 1, 2007 - September 30, 2008 October 1, 20

FY 2008 
Office of Debt Management

 Financing associated with the 

Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA) has made managing volatility in cash balances more challenging.

 Net marketable borrowing for 

the fourth quarter was a record $527 billion and was primarily financed through bills. 

 SFPs accounted for $300 

billion of Q4 net marketable borrowing.

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

255075

100125150175

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju

$ billions

FY 2007FY 2008FY 2009

Note: Data throu

Excludes Supplementary Financing Program. As of October 28, Treasury has $559 billion held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

"Net Cash" 

Fiscal Quarter

113.4

145.9

31.3

89.0

97.8

144.2

-78.5

52.3

92.5

158.0

-92.2

45.0 41.9

125.7

-138.7

1

-250-200-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

I-04 II III IV I-05 II III IV I-06 II III IV I-07 II III 

$ billions

Over 10 year TIPSOver 10 years5-10 year TIPS5-10 years2-under 5 years Bills

Note: Includes SOMA redemptions and SFP's.
Office of Debt Management

 State and Local Government 

net redemptions were a record $36.3 billion FY 2008 versus $57.7 billion net issuance in FY 2007. 

 For the 19th consecutive 

quarter, Savings Bonds did not raise any cash. 

 In FY 2008, Savings Bonds 

redemptions totaled $10 billion.

 Bill issuance remains 

elevated, while the 2-3 year sector continues to trend lower.

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issu

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bond

Note: Data through September 30, 2008. Excludes CMB's..

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketab

 Fiscal Quarter

7.6

-2.4

-8.4

7.6

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.0

1.1

16.6

24.4

16.3

10.7

-2.2

4.1

-6.8

15.7

21.0

15.7

-8

-20-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I 03 II III IV I 04 II III IV I 05 II III IV I 06 II III IV I 07 II III IV 

$billions

State and Local Govt.SeriesSavings BondsForeign Series
Office of Debt Management

Debt Portfolio Considerations

Assumptions used in the next 3 charts: Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally acros

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auc

 These sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of Sep

2008 and assume the outstanding level of bills on September 3

 OMB 2009 MSR Budget estimates used for FY2009-2013.  Projections exclude cash management bills.Using the above assumptions, over the next 5 years:

 Average maturity of total outstanding and average maturity of 

settle to about 53 and 55 months, respectively. 

 The percent of debt with 3 years or less to maturity stabilizes a
Office of Debt Management

 Average maturity of issuance 

recently peaked in FY 2008.

 The average maturity of 

marketable debt outstanding fell by three months reflecting increased bill issuance in the last quarter of FY 2008.

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, current issuance patterns would lead to a steadily increasing share of medium to longer-term debt.

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by 

Fiscal Year 

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

Net financing projections for FY 2009-2013 are based on OMB 2009 MSR Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs 

auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2008. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts.

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2

months

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

Net financing projections for FY 2009-2013 are based on OMB 2009 MSR Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread pro

are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of September 30, 2008 and assume the 

2008. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts.

1 Quarterly data are actuals through September 30, 2008. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter average2 Quarterly data are actuals through September 30, 2008. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 
Office of Debt Management

 Short-term debt as a 

percent of the overall portfolio rose, as a result of the introduction of the 52-week bill, an increase in weekly bill issuance, and funding for the SFP.

 Maturing 2-year, 3-

year and 5-year note securities lead to increased near- and medium-term financing needs. 

Coupons Maturing*

November 15, 2008-May 15, 2038

0

1020304050607080

15-NOV-2008

30-NOV-2008

15-DEC-2008

31-DEC-2008

15-JAN-2009

31-JAN-2009

15-FEB-2009

28-FEB-2009

15-MAR-2009

31-MAR-2009

15-APR-2009

30-APR-2009

15-MAY-2009

31-MAY-2009

15-JUN-2009

30-JUN-2009

15-JUL-2009

31-JUL-2009

15-AUG-2009

31-AUG-2009

15-SEP-2009

30-SEP-2009

15-OCT-2009

31-OCT-2009

15-NOV-2009

30-NOV-2009

15-DEC-2009

31-DEC-2009

15-JAN-2010

31-JAN-2010

15-FEB-2010

28-FEB-2010

15-MAR-2010

31-MAR-2010

15-APR-2010

30-APR-2010

15-MAY-2010

31-MAY-2010

15-JUN-2010

30-JUN-2010

15-JUL-2010

31-JUL-2010

15-AUG-2010

31-AUG-2010

15-SEP-2010

30-SEP-2010

15-OCT-2010

15-NOV-2010

15-DEC-2010

15-JAN-2011

15-FEB-2011

28-FEB-2011

31-MAR-2011

15-APR-2011

30-APR-2011

31-MAY-2011

30-JUN-2011

31-JUL-2011

15-AUG-2011

31-AUG-2011

30-SEP-2011

31-OCT-2011

30-NOV-2011

31-DEC-2011

15-JAN-2012

31-JAN-2012

15-FEB-2012

29-FEB-2012

31-MAR-2012

15-APR-2012

30-APR-2012

31-MAY-2012

30-JUN-2012

15-JUL-2012

31-JUL-2012

15-AUG-2012

31-AUG-2012

30-SEP-2012

31-OCT-2012

15-NOV-2012

30-NOV-2012

31-DEC-2012

31-JAN-2013

15-FEB-2013

28-FEB-2013

31-MAR-2013

15-APR-2013

30-APR-2013

15-MAY-2013

31-MAY-2013

30-JUN-2013

15-JUL-2013

31-JUL-2013

15-AUG-2013

31-AUG-2013

30-SEP-2013

15-NOV-2013

15-JAN-2014

15-FEB-2014

15-MAY-2014

15-JUL-2014

15-AUG-2014

15-NOV-2014

15-JAN-2015

15-FEB-2015

15-MAY-2015

15-JUL-2015

15-AUG-2015

15-NOV-2015

15-JAN-2016

15-FEB-2016

15-MAY-2016

15-JUL-2016

15-AUG-2016

15-NOV-2016

15-JAN-2017

15-FEB-2017

15-MAY-2017

15-JUL-2017

15-AUG-2017

15-NOV-2017

15-JAN-2018

15-FEB-2018

15-MAY-2018

15-JUL-2018

$ Billions

10 YR IIS NOTE 10 YR NOTE 20 YR IIS BOND 3 YR NOTE 30 YR IIS BOND 5 YR IIS NOTE 

*Based on coupon securities outstanding as of October 15, 2008.

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 M

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Net financing projections for FY 2009-2013 are based on OMB 2009 MSR Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs ar

auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2008. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts.
Office of Debt Management

Uncertainty

 Economic and credit market conditions, and ongoing Federal R

System actions continue to add uncertainty to borrowing require

 Volatility in projected receipts, outlays and reduced non-market

issuance could also lead to increased near-term marketable fina
Office of Debt Management

 State and Local Government 

Series (SLGS) debt redemptions continue to exceed issuance due to volatility in the municipal bond sector. 

 In FY 2008 Net SLGS 

redemptions were a record $36.3 billion, compared to FY2007 total net SLGS issuance of $57.7 billon.

State and Local Governments (SLGS) 

Calendar year

0

102030405060

$ B illio n sGross Issues Redemptions

-20-10

0

10203040

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2

$ B illio n s

Net SLGs
Office of Debt Management

 Primary dealers 

currently estimate a FY 2009 deficit of $988 billion.

 Dealer estimates 

reflect uncertainty regarding the fiscal outlook.

 Fiscal deficit 

projections remain volatile given overall uncertainty.

Comparing Deficit Estimates for FY 2009 since February 

0

100200300400500600700800900

1,000

Feb 08 May 08 August 08 

Estimate Month

Deficit Estimate for FY 2009 (bn, $) OMB CBO Primary Dealers

FY 09 Deficit Estimates 

Primary 

Dealers* 

Current: 988 Range based on average absolute forecast error** 863 - 1,113 FY 2009 Marketable Borrowing*** 1,400 FY 2009 Marketable Borrowing Range*** 1,100 - 2,100 Estimates as of: October 08 Se

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate.** Ranges based on errors from 2004-2008.*** Based on Primary Dealer feedback on October 30, 2008.