Aggregated Perspectives on Treasury Auction Sizes, October 2018

MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD

Coupons

43.3 3.6 41.3 3.3 45.8 4.1 45.3 5.7 43.4 5.0 48.6 6.4 47.7 6.7 45.3 5.2 52.0 7.3

41.4 3.7 39.7 3.7 43.9 4.0 43.4 5.6 41.7 5.5 46.8 6.3 45.6 6.2 43.6 5.8 49.8 6.7

43.7 3.1 41.5 3.4 46.0 3.1 45.3 3.5 43.4 3.1 48.4 4.0 47.4 4.0 45.6 3.3 51.2 4.8

33.3 2.2 32.3 2.1 35.2 2.4 35.0 3.7 33.6 2.9 37.7 4.4 36.8 4.6 35.3 3.8 40.7 6.9

28.1 1.4 27.1 1.4 29.7 1.6 29.9 2.8 28.7 2.5 32.1 3.3 31.5 4.2 30.3 3.7 34.7 5.4

25.0 1.4 24.0 1.4 26.7 1.6 26.8 2.8 25.5 2.3 28.8 3.1 28.4 4.4 27.3 3.8 31.3 5.6

20.0 1.3 19.0 1.3 21.6 1.7 21.4 2.5 20.2 2.1 23.3 2.8 22.7 3.8 21.4 3.3 25.1 4.8

17.0 1.3 15.9 1.3 18.6 1.6 18.3 2.5 17.1 2.0 20.2 2.8 19.5 3.7 18.4 3.4 21.6 3.9

TIPS

16.2 1.5 15.1 1.8 18.1 1.9 16.6 2.0 15.7 2.2 18.4 2.2 16.8 2.4 15.7 2.4 18.9 2.9

14.3 1.7 13.4 2.0 16.2 2.1 14.8 2.2 13.9 2.3 16.7 2.4 15.1 2.7 14.0 2.6 17.6 3.8

13.8 0.8 13.1 0.7 15.4 1.5 14.2 1.3 13.3 0.9 15.8 1.9 14.7 2.0 13.6 1.6 16.8 3.2

11.7 0.8 11.1 0.8 13.3 1.1 12.1 1.3 11.3 0.9 13.7 1.6 12.7 2.0 11.7 1.6 14.7 3.0

7.6 0.7 6.8 0.6 8.8 0.9 7.8 0.9 7.1 0.7 9.2 1.4 8.1 1.3 7.0 1.0 9.6 1.7

5.8 1.2 5.0 0.7 7.0 1.2 6.0 1.3 5.2 0.8 7.5 1.6 6.3 1.5 5.3 1.0 7.9 1.8

FRNs

20.7 1.4 19.6 1.1 22.4 2.2 22.1 3.7 20.7 2.7 23.9 4.4 23.2 4.7 21.5 3.2 25.7 5.7

18.9 1.5 17.8 1.2 20.7 2.2 20.3 3.7 18.9 2.8 22.2 4.3 21.4 4.7 19.9 3.3 24.0 5.7

Bills

45.8 9.0 38.6 9.1 56.2 11.1 49.6 10.4 42.2 10.5 60.3 11.8 53.6 11.4 45.0 12.6 65.4 13.4

34.7 7.2 28.2 5.5 42.9 9.1 38.9 8.7 31.7 7.3 46.7 10.7 42.9 10.7 34.7 9.2 50.6 12.0

47.7 3.7 42.8 5.5 53.6 4.7 50.6 5.3 44.8 7.4 56.4 6.1 53.1 7.0 46.5 9.2 58.9 7.3

42.5 3.0 38.5 4.5 48.4 4.0 45.5 3.7 41.3 6.2 50.4 4.9 48.3 5.4 42.5 7.4 54.1 5.7

27.8 2.0 25.7 1.9 30.6 2.9 29.0 3.6 26.8 3.7 32.1 4.2 30.5 5.7 27.6 6.0 33.8 6.5

6-mo bill

1-year bill

2-mo bill

30-year TIPS (new)

30-year TIPS (reop)

2-year FRN

2-year FRN (reop)

1-mo bill

3-mo bill

30-year (new)

30-year (reop)

5-year TIPS (new)

5-year TIPS (reop)

10-year TIPS (new)

10-year TIPS (reop)

2-year

3-year

5-year

7-year

10-year (new)

10-year (reop)

Range that would not surprise you

Low High Low High Low High

The Treasury Department’s Office of Debt Management (ODM) would like your perspectives on Treasury auction sizes. This information would be used to help test ODM’s debt-issuance modeling assumptions, and does not 

reflect potential policy decisions. We appreciate your participation in a similar survey conducted in October 2017, and the aggregate response can be found online at

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Pages/archived-auction-survey.aspx

Given your expectations for the borrowing needs over the next three fiscal years, Treasury would like your expectations for:

1. Auction sizes ($bln) in all tenors by the end of FY19, FY20, and FY21, and 

2. Auction size ranges ($bln) that would not surprise you across all tenors by the end of FY19, FY20, and FY21.

Auction size estimates should take into account the amount needed to address SOMA redemptions of Treasury securities.

Thank you very much for your continuing collaboration.

The Treasury Department’s ODM surveyed all 23 primary dealers on their firms’ perspectives on Treasury auction sizes. The results presented below are “trimmed mean” and “trimmed standard deviation”. That is, the high and 

low values of all 23 responses for any maturity tranche are deleted before computing the average and standard deviation.

Tenor

Size Expectations 

for FY19 Year-End

Range that would not surprise you Size Expectations 

for FY20 Year-End

Range that would not surprise you Size Expectations 

for FY21 Year-End