From: Robert Berman [mailto:bermaneconomics@gmail.com]

Sent: Saturday, November 05, 2011 7:26 PM

To: Steve Nadel

Cc: Robert Berman; Robin Roy; Eric Peterson; Jerry Schoen; Maxine Savitz; Michael Hyland; Raymond

Polinski; Mahesh P. Sampat; Bruce R Hirsch; Thomas Petrosino; James Lass; Chris Brown; Aaron Meyers;

Jerry Corkran; Tim Ballo; Jeremiah Freeman; Jim Raba; John Cymbalsky; Robert van Buskirk; Steve

Rosenstock; Daniel Y oung; Rick Anderson; Bob Smith; Rob Greeson; Carlos Gaytan; Art Rosenfeld; Greg

Coulter; Richard Parker; Paul Ryan; Jerry Hodge; Dan Cohen; Jennifer Tiedeman; Phil Hopkinson; Chris

Bolduc; Greg Rosenquist; Katie Coughlin; Scott Beck; Dave Millure; Ken Winder; John Rossetti; Aris

Marantan; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Matt hew Nardotti; Michael Rivest; Zhimei Luo; Charlie Stevens;

Clark Silcox; Jim Creevy; John Caskey; Meg Waltner; Bob Saint; Tom Eckman; Gary Fernstrom; Chuck

Simmons; Phil Harter; Alex Hofmann; Puesh Kumar; Andrew Delaski; Joanna Mauer; Wes Patterson;

charlie drexler; David Flaten

Subject: Re: MV Transformers Material Price Sensitivity Analysis

The

‐ 25% cas e (for M3 and M2) is particularly important. What the LBNL's assessment of material

market shares actually shows is that relative prices of GOES and SA1 are (1) tied very closely to relative

material performance at various efficiency levels; and (2) those relative prices will change, as it is highly

unlikely that a small change in mini mum efficiency will result in both AK and ATI abandoning the market.

Rather the result will more likely be a lowering of the price of M3 and M2. The close relationship of

material prices to performance at various efficiency levels is underscored by ho w quickly the share

results went to what economists call a "corner solution". I would anticipate that rerunning the OPS

model for M3 and M2 at a 25% lower price would significantly (1) flatten the M3 and M2 LCC values

over the various ELs, and (2) "return" market share to the GOES materials.

Stated differe ntly, all we are observing are the LCC's and market shares if relative prices do not change

‐‐

if material manufacturers cease competition. The

‐ 25% case is expected to show this. ABB, Howard and

GE, because of their experience and knowledge of the material price/performance characteristics, could

probably pro vide more refined price assessments of relative price change scenarios, as could LBNL with

some experimentation. Although this analysis is probably second nature to the material suppliers,

antitrust considerations would likely preclude their participation.

It should be noted that the +25% price change scenario for ANY of the materials will no t inform likely

changes in relative prices as the reality is that material requirements for M3 and M2 increase more than

proportional relative to SA1, as efficiency levels increase. Price increase scenarios would only artificially

increase estimated transformer costs relative to what one may reasonably expect to happen.

Transformer prices will increase, even at lower mater ial prices, because of the additional material

requirements associated with more efficient units; not because material prices will increase. It is the

cost increase due to weight, not price, that is most relevant to determining the greatest efficiency

increase to benefit consumers, while maintaining or increasing i ndustry competition.

Regards,

Robert A. Berman, Principal

Berman Economics

www.BermanEconomics.com

1915 Grand Court

Vienna, VA 22182703

‐ 281

‐ 0490

703

‐ 655

‐ 8398 (cell)

BermanEconomics@gmail.com

On Nov 5, 2011, at 8:16 AM, Steve Nadel wrote:

I agree that Robin's scenario would be useful. For now, just run with the assumptions DOE/LBL has

already made.

Re steel price sensitivities, I would like to stick with the

‐ 25% and +25% originally agreed to. My

understanding is that steel prices are no w below the base prices DOE uses, so having a lower price

sensitivity would be useful. As for a 50% higher scenario, as Robert says, that is pure speculation. I

don't object to such pie

‐ in

‐ the

‐ sky scenarios if DOE/LBL have time, but this is a much lower priority. An d

if they do have time, I'd also suggest a scenario using EIA's high electricity price forecast as many people

consider the reference case forecast to be too low (this may also be on their current list as it's a

standard sensitivity DOE usually runs).

Steve

>>> Robert Be rman < bermaneconomics@gmail.com > 11/4/2011 7:09 PM >>>

Robin's scenario would be an easy one to run ‐‐ simply filter our the ZDMH and SA1 "dots", unless we

what to then assume that the lack of availability of amorphous and ZDMH would result in a 50% (or

more) increase in the price of M3 and M2, which mi ght require additional runs.

Regards,

Robert A. Berman, Principal

Berman Economics

www.BermanEconomics.com

1915 Grand Court

Vienna, VA 22182

703

‐ 281

‐ 0490

703

‐ 655

‐ 8398 (cell)

BermanEconomics@gmail.com

On Nov 4, 2011, at 6:36 PM, Roy, Robin wrote:

Greg, Richard et al,

That sounds sensible. I think it might also be useful to perform sensitivity analyses based on the worse

‐

than

‐ worst

‐ case assumption that neither ZDMH nor amorphous are available. That would put a floorunder the LCC savings estimates and a ceiling on the first cost impact, representing the outcome if the

amorphous and ZDMH suppliers effectively exerted extreme upward price leverage.

On a rough eyeballing of the data, it appears that for each DL, many of the ELs that M2 or M3 can

achieve would still deliver LCC savings. If tha t’s right, it would give me much more comfort with those

ELs.

Cheers,

Robin

From: Greg Coulter [ mailto:greg.coulter405@gmail.com ]

Sent: Friday, November 04, 2011 3:18 PM

To: Richard Parker

Cc: Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bob Smith; Brian Coffey;

Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Gaytan; Caskey, John; charlie drexler; Charlie Stevens; Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown;

Clark Silcox; Creevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; David Flaten; Eric Peterson; Free man, Jeremiah; Gary

Fernstrom; Greg Rosenquist; Hirsch, Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Jerry Corkran; Jerry Hodge;

Jerry Schoen; Jim Raba; Joanna Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Katie Coughlin; Ken Winder;

Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; Maxine Savitz; Waltner, Meg; Meyers, Aaron; Michael Hyland;

Michael Rivest; Millure, Dave; Phil Harter; Phil Hopkinson; Polinski, Raymond; Puesh Ku mar; Rick

Anderson; Rob Greeson; Robert Berman; Robert van Buskirk; Roy, Robin; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck;

Simmons, Chuck; Steve Nadel; Steve Rosenstock; Thomas Petrosino; Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; Wes

Patterson; Zhimei Luo

Subject: Re: MV Transformers Material Price Sensitivity Analysis

Richard,

I have talked to many of th e representatives, while not a complete survey, we are of the opinion that

the sensitivity analysis for the core materials could be simplified. Presently, the plan as I understand it is

to run sensitivity analysis at both +25% of 2008 prices and

‐ 25% of 2006 prices. Our concern is not with

the low side on these pri ces as due to the severe market depression over the last many years for these

products, we feel we have seen the low side. Our concern is more on the high side, where we are more

concerned about the effect a major technology swing could have on exis ting core materials.

Therefore, we suggest that the sensitivity analysis only be run on the high side and that only 2 levels be

run. We suggest that +25% and +50% of 2008 prices would satisfy our needs. Therefore, the price levels

used for the sensitivity analysis for amorphous me tal would be:

$2.91 x 1.25 = $3.64

$2.91 x 1.50 = $4.37

This range should provide enough insight. These should only be run for the liquid filled design lines

(DL1, DL2, DL3, DL5). The rationale for using the 1.5 times 2008 levels is the concern that if Ef ficiency

Levels are chosen that are high enough to eliminate silicon steel from competing and amorphous

becomes the prime core material, all (the) amorphous metal producers would have upward price

leverage even above the value we are proposing to use for this analysis.

For the dry type lines, it appears your proposal on price sensi tivity is fine.

If anyone has comments or opposition, please advise. I apologize for not talking to everyone.

Greg

On Fri, Nov 4, 2011 at 11:20 AM, Richard Parker < richardparkerdc@gmail.com > wrote:

Colleagues,

There have been a number of requests for additional LCC runs with various material prices reflecting

concerns with possible shortages of supply under various standards scenarios.Attached is a sheet that summarizes the price sensitivity analysis that is currently in the pipeline: ranging

from 2006 minus 25% on the low side to 2008 plus 25% on the high side.

For amorphous that yields a range from $1.72/lb to $3.64/lb, with a base case (2010) of 2.38/lb.

For ZDMH, the range is from $1.41 to $3 .22 with a base of 2.05. (A sensitivity is already being run with

ZDMH screened entirely out of the analysis, reflecting concerns that this material may not be available

due to a reluctance to supply the North American market allegedly due to fear of dump ing duties.)

As we discussed, each run takes several hours per design line so we obviously cannot accommodate all

requests, nor would it be instructive to do so absent some credible price scenario that is not currently

being modeled and that lies outside these boundaries.

So what I would propose is this: Could industry parti cipants in the MV Group please communicate with

each other today, examine the attached sheet and

(a) try to arrive at a collective determination of whether there is reason to believe that proposed range

of prices is really to narrow such that additional run is warranted; and

(b) if so, propose the set of prices tha t you would like to see run, and a short explanation/justification

for your request.

Greg Coulter has kindly agreed to serve as the coordinator for this effort so please work with him. If for

any reason, issues of confidentiality prevent you from co mmunicating with Greg and others in open

forum please let me know and I will discuss with you how to proceed.

You also will need to choose a couple of design lines to focus on. I understand that DL 1 and 2 are the

lines with the most shipments in th e liquid immersed category. If you have preferences for MVDT

please convey them with your request (perhaps DL 12?). I would expect that we could manage runs for

3 design lines.

Again, the consultants are swamped with work accommodating the input they've gotten from the group

so far, so please do not mak e work for them by requesting additional runs unless there really is good

cause for doing so.

Please let us know by cob today what your preferences are.

All best,

Richard

‐‐

Greg Coulter