United States 

Department of 

Agriculture

Animal and Plant 

Health Inspection 

Service

June 2014

Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis

Proposed Rule

APHIS 2014-0015

RIN 0579-AD95

South Africa Citrus from Citrus Black Spot Infested 

Areas

Policy & Program Development

Policy Analysis & Development
i

Summary

The proposed rule would allow the importation of grapefruit, lemon, mandarin, sweet 

orange, and tangelo from areas of South Africa affected by citrus black spot (CBS). Importation 

would require a systems approach to pest risk mitigation, equivalent to U.S. requirements that 

govern the interstate movement of citrus from domestic CBS-affected areas, in addition to cold 

treatment. Because CBS is present in most citrus-producing areas in South Africa, this action 

would greatly expand the area where citrus may be grown for shipment to the United States. 

Changes in imports of South African citrus and impacts for U.S. producers and 

consumers would depend on a variety of factors. Additional imports would compete with U.S. 

domestic production as well as with citrus imports from other countries, particularly ones also 

located in the Southern Hemisphere that have export seasons similar to those of South Africa. 

The extent to which the United States may become a more prominent export destination for 

South African citrus could also be influenced by South Africa’s export prospects elsewhere, 

particularly to the European Union (EU). The EU is an important market for South African 

citrus, but imports were recently suspended for one growing season due to concerns over CBS. 

While the suspension was temporary, more recently the EU has imposed more stringent import 

restrictions to mitigate the risk of CBS introduction. On the demand side, consumers base their 

purchasing decisions for fresh citrus on the price and a number of qualitative attributes such as 

variety, flavor, juiciness, ease of peeling, appearance, freshness, perceived health benefits, 

production method, and product origin.

Consumers would benefit from additional fresh citrus imported from South Africa, and 

importers and distributors of South African fresh citrus would also benefit from new business 
ii

opportunities. U.S. producers would face increased competition from the additional imports. 

For all affected entities, effects can be expected to vary by citrus species.

The U.S. import market for oranges has been expanding, even though per capita 

consumption of oranges has remained relatively constant. As with other citrus, the peak U.S. 

demand for imported oranges occurs as the U.S. production and marketing season is ending, and 

corresponds to South Africa’s peak in orange exports to the world. Strong competition from 

domestically produced Valencia oranges is likely to limit additional imports of this variety from 

South Africa, whereas we expect there may be better opportunities for increased navel orange 

imports. 

South African exporters may find opportunities to expand sales of fresh grapefruit to the 

United States with publication of this rule. Less than 4 percent of grapefruit production areas in 

South Africa are considered to be CBS-free and therefore currently eligible to send citrus to the 

United States. However, U.S. per capita consumption has been relatively flat over the last 

decade, and imports represent a small proportion of the overall domestic supply of grapefruit. 

South African exporters would be constrained to some extent by the same market-clearing price 

faced by all suppliers, although fresh grapefruit from South Africa have generally commanded a 

price premium relative to imports from other sources. 

A significant portion of South Africa’s tangelo and mandarin varieties is grown in areas 

that are CBS-free and already eligible for importation by the United States. Therefore, any

increase in tangelo and mandarin variety imports as a result of the proposed rule is likely to be 

limited. U.S. per capita consumption of these species has increased over the last decade, as have 

imports. 
iii

No lemons are currently imported from South Africa, even though lemons grown in CBSfree areas are eligible. All citrus imported from South Africa must be cold treated, and lemons 

do not survive this cold treatment in a marketable condition. Therefore, no new lemon imports 

are expected as a result of this proposed rule.

We have identified industries that could be affected by the proposed rule based on the 

North American Industry Classification System. Based on Small Business Administration size 

standards, small entities are prominent in those industries for which information on business size 

composition is available.
iv

Table of Contents

Summary.......................................................................................................................................... i

Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

Citrus Production and Trade ....................................................................................................... 1

Fresh Oranges ......................................................................................................................... 3

Fresh Grapefruit...................................................................................................................... 6

Fresh Tangerines, Tangelos, Mandarins, Clementines, and Similar Citrus Hybrids.............. 8

South Africa’s Citrus Industry .................................................................................................. 11

Fresh Oranges ....................................................................................................................... 12

Fresh Grapefruit.................................................................................................................... 13

Fresh Tangerines, Tangelos, Mandarins, Clementines, and Similar Citrus Hybrids............ 14

Reasons Action is Being Considered............................................................................................ 15

Objectives of and Legal Basis for the Rule .................................................................................. 15

Potentially Affected Small Entities and Potential Effects ............................................................ 16

Projected Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Other Compliance Requirements............................... 25

Duplication, Overlap, or Conflict with Existing Rules and Regulations...................................... 25

Alternatives to minimize Significant Economic Impacts of the Rule........................................... 25
1

Introduction

The proposed rule would allow the importation of five species of Citrus (grapefruit, 

lemon, mandarin, sweet orange, and tangelo) from areas in South Africa not free of citrus black 

spot (CBS). Importation would require a systems approach to pest risk mitigation to prevent the

introduction of CBS, in addition to cold treatment. The systems approach would need to be 

equivalent to U.S. requirements that govern the interstate movement of citrus from domestic 

CBS-affected areas. Currently, the five citrus species are allowed to be imported from South 

Africa’s CBS-free areas, as long as the fruit has undergone cold treatment to control for false 

codling moth, fruit flies of the genera Ceratitis and Pterandrus, and the fruit fly Bactrocera

invadens.

The Regulatory Flexibility Act requires agencies to evaluate the potential effects of their 

proposed and final rules on small businesses, small organizations and small governmental 

jurisdictions. This initial regulatory flexibility analysis examines the prevalence of small 

businesses in industries that may be affected by the proposed rule and considers whether smallentity impacts are likely to be significant, as required by section 603 of the Act. 

In this introduction, we describe production, consumption and trade for the United States 

and South Africa of the specified citrus species. We then discuss the prevalence of small 

businesses in industries that may be affected.

Citrus Production and Trade

Citrus, particularly oranges, are among the most popular fresh fruits consumed in the 

United States and are a significant source of U.S. farm income. In 2012, oranges generated $2.2 
2

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Figure 1. U.S. Citrus-bearing Acreage and Production

Bearing Acreage Production Linear (Production)

billion in farm cash receipts. Lemons generated $430 million, tangerines another $414 million, 

and grapefruit another $269 million.1 

U.S. citrus-bearing acreage has declined by 15 percent over the last two decades, most 

notably in Florida where 95 percent of the orange crop is used for juice (figure 1). This decline 

is due in large part to tree losses associated with weather-related events, citrus canker eradication 

efforts, the spread of Huanglongbing (also known as citrus greening) and other diseases, and 

residential and business expansion. Consequently, U.S. orange production has declined by 23 

percent over the last 20 seasons. 

The decline in Florida’s bearing acreage and production will continue to mainly impact 

the orange juice market. U.S. fresh citrus is principally grown in California, where production 

has either remained stable (fresh oranges) or is expanding (fresh tangerine and mandarin 

varieties). 

Any increase in imports from South Africa would compete with fresh citrus produced 

domestically and imported from other countries. Fresh citrus imports account for about 7 

 

1 USDA, Economic Research Service. Fruit and Tree Nuts, Table A-8: U.S. Cash Receipts 1980 to date.
3

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Figure 2. United States - Fresh Orange Trade Balance

Exports Imports

percent of U.S. fresh fruit imports. The major suppliers of fresh citrus are Mexico (42 percent), 

Chile (17 percent), Spain (16 percent), and South Africa (9 percent).2

Fresh Oranges

The United States is a net exporter of fresh oranges, exporting an average of 8 percent 

and importing an average of 3 percent of the fresh oranges traded worldwide, 2008/09 through 

2012/13. Over this five-year period, U.S. fresh orange exports averaged 657,800 metric tons 

(MT) and imports averaged 111,000 MT (figure 2). The United States is the third largest 

exporter of fresh oranges, and its primary foreign markets are South Korea, Canada, Japan, Hong 

Kong, and China. U.S. exports typically peak in March. 

Eight percent of the fresh oranges consumed in the United States are imported. Chile and 

South Africa, followed by Mexico and Australia, supply the largest shares of U.S. fresh orange 

imports.3 

 

2 Huang, Sophia W., “Imports Contribute to Year-Round Fresh Fruit Availability.” Economic Research Service. 

USDA 2013. http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fts-fruit-and-tree-nuts-outlook/fts-356-01.aspx

3 Global Trade Information Services, Inc. 
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Figure 3. U.S. Orange Bearing Acres and Production: Seasons 

2000/01 through 2011/12

Bearing acreage Production Linear (Bearing acreage) Linear (Production)

While showing fluctuations year to year, U.S. fresh orange per capita consumption has 

steadily declined over the last 30 years and remained relatively flat over the past decade. In 

2012/13, U.S. fresh orange per capita consumption was 10.9 pounds, down from a high of 14.6 

pounds in 1997/98.4 As with other developed countries, competition from easy-peel citrus 

varieties and increased orange juice consumption have contributed to this per capita decline.

U.S. crop acreage devoted to orange production declined by 24 percent between 2000/01 

and 2011/12, from 815,000 to 619,200 bearing acres (figure 3).5 Over that same time period, 

production declined by 26 percent, from 12.2 million to 9 million MT.6 

As described above, most of the industry’s contraction has been in production for the 

processing sector. In Florida, where more than 95 percent of production is devoted to oranges 

for processing, the bearing acreage fell by 28 percent between 1999/2000 and 2011/12, and 

orange production fell by 34 percent. In California, where 85 percent of U.S. production for the 

 

4 USDA/ Economic Research Service, preliminary estimate.

5 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Florida Agricultural Statistics Service, Florida Citrus Statistics

2011-2012.

6

Ibid.
5

fresh market is harvested, the quantity produced has been relatively stable, averaging around 2 

million MT annually even while the bearing acreage has fallen by 10 percent. 

On average, 27 percent of U.S. produced oranges are sold for fresh consumption, both

domestically and internationally. While only 4 percent of orange production in Florida is 

utilized fresh, the percentages for California and Texas are 83 and 86 percent, respectively.

7

U.S. imports of fresh oranges tend to increase in late summer to complement smaller offseason domestic supplies (figure 4). Over the period 2008/09 through 2012/13, the United States 

imported an average of 33,700 MT of fresh oranges annually from South Africa, accounting for 

about 30 percent of total U.S. imports of fresh oranges. 

The United States imported an average of 111,000 MT of fresh oranges annually from the 

2008/09 season through the 2012/13 season, accounting for less than 2 percent of U.S.

consumption. Imports were fairly consistent from season to season. Chile and South Africa

 

7

Fresh utilization refers to the proportion of total fruit sold as fresh citrus. The remainder is considered to be 

utilized on the processed market.

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Figure 4. U.S. Fresh Orange Trade

Monthly Quantity

Exports

Imports
6

were the top two suppliers of fresh orange imports by the United States during the 2012/13 

season, followed by Mexico and Australia.

8

Fresh Grapefruit

The United States is a large net exporter of grapefruit (figure 5). The United States

imported about 1 percent and exported about 27 percent of the world’s traded grapefruit, 2008/09 

through 2012/13. Over the period, U.S. exports averaged approximately 222,000 MT. Primary

foreign markets for U.S. fresh grapefruit are Japan, Canada, France, the Netherlands and South 

Korea. 

The United States imports comparatively little fresh grapefruit, given extensive domestic 

production. Over the period 2008/09 through 2012/13, fresh grapefruit imports by the United 

States averaged 7,800 MT per year, or less than 1 percent of domestic consumption. Mexico,

Israel, and South Africa supplied 83 percent, 9 percent, and 3 percent of imports, respectively, 

during the 2012/13 season. In terms of value, Mexico accounted for 63 percent; Israel, 22 

percent; and South Africa, 12 percent of U.S. fresh grapefruit imports, reflecting the premium 

 

8 Global Trade Information Services, Inc. These Global Trade Atlas estimates include dried lemons as well as fresh 

lemons. 

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Figure 5. United States - Fresh Grapefruit Trade Balance

Exports Imports
7

prices received by South African exporters. 9 Exports are highest in November through March 

and decline thereafter (figure 6). 

About 80 percent of U.S. fresh grapefruit production was consumed domestically in the 

2012/13 season.10 Fresh utilization of grapefruit accounts for about 43 percent of grapefruit

production in Florida, about 55 percent in Texas, and nearly 100 percent in California.11 

Domestically produced grapefruit are marketed year-round, with seasons varying by State and 

variety. U.S. grower revenue from fresh grapefruit production in 2012/13 was approximately

$180.2 million.12 During the 2012/13 season, U.S. per capita fresh grapefruit consumption was 2.6

pounds .

13 As with fresh oranges, U.S. fresh grapefruit consumption has remained relatively flat over 

the last decade. 

 

9 Global Trade Information Services, Inc. These Global Trade Atlas estimates include dried grapefruit as well as 

fresh grapefruit. 

10 The proportion of U.S. fresh orange production consumed domestically is the ratio of utilized fresh production 

less exports divided by utilized fresh production. Data source: USDA ERS Briefing Room, Fruit and Tree Nut 

Yearbook.

11 Fresh utilization refers to the proportion of total fruit sold and/or consumed as fresh citrus. The remainder is 

considered to be utilized on the processed market.

12 National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), USDA, “Citrus Fruits 2013 Summary,” September 2013.

13 USDA/ Economic Research Service, preliminary estimate.

 -

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Figure 6. U.S. Fresh Grapefruit Trade

Monthly Quantity

Imports

Exports
8

U.S. crop acreage devoted to grapefruit production has declined by 50 percent since the 

2000/2001 crop year, going from 145,000 acres to 73,000 acres in 2011/12 (figure 7).

14

 Over 

that same period, production declined by 50 percent, from 2.2 million MT to 1.1 million MT.15

Grapefruit bearing acreage and production in California and Texas declined to 28,000 acres and 

370,000 MT in 2012/13, reductions of 20 percent and 7 percent, respectively. More extreme 

declines have taken place in Florida, which accounts for 82 percent of grapefruit used by the 

processing sector; grapefruit bearing acreage has fallen to 45,000 acres, a decline of 58 percent 

since the 2000/2001 season, and grapefruit production has fallen by 62 percent to 700,000 MT. 

Fresh Tangerines, Tangelos, Mandarins, Clementines, and Similar Citrus Hybrids

The United States is a net importer of tangerine and mandarin varieties (figure 8). U.S.

imports averaged 7 percent of the world’s fresh tangerine and mandarin variety exports, and 

accounted for an average of 26 percent of domestic fresh consumption over the 2008/09 through 

2012/13 seasons. During 2011/12, the United States imported 154,296 MT of tangerine and 

mandarin varieties (including satsumas, clementines, and similar citrus hybrids) with 

 

14 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Citrus Fruits Summary, various years.

15 Ibid.

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Figure 7. U.S. Grapefruit Bearing Acreage and Production

acreage Production Linear (acreage) Linear (Production)
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Figure 8. United States - Fresh Tangerine Trade Balance

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Figure 9. Tangerine Bearing Acres and Production

acres Production Linear (acres) Linear (Production)

approximately 39 percent, 31 percent, 13 percent, and 9 percent arriving from Chile, Spain, Peru, 

and Morocco, respectively. 

That same season, the United States exported approximately 42,175 MT of tangerine and 

mandarin varieties. Canada is the largest importer of U.S. fresh tangerine and mandarin 

varieties, accounting for 48 percent of U.S. exports. The second largest importer is Japan, 
10

accounting for approximately 25 percent.16

U.S. bearing acreage for tangerines has increased by 29 percent since the 1999/2000 crop 

year, from 41,000 to 53,000 acres in 2011/12 (figure 9). Over that same time period, production 

increased by 63 percent from, 298,000 to 486,000 MT.17

About 92 percent of U.S. fresh tangerine and mandarin variety production was consumed 

domestically in 2012/13, including processed production.

18

 U.S. imports of tangerine and 

mandarin varieties supplement domestic production in satisfying increased domestic demand. 

U.S. per capita consumption of fresh tangerine and mandarin varieties has increased, on average, 

5.5 percent annually over the last 30 years. Over the last decade, per capita consumption of fresh 

tangerine and mandarin varieties in the United States increased from 2.73 pounds in 2002/03, to 

4.5 pounds per capita in 2012/13.19 Easy-peel, seedless fresh citrus varieties are particularly 

appealing to consumers. 

On average, 80 percent of tangerine and mandarin varieties produced in the United States 

are consumed fresh, domestically and internationally. Production intended for fresh market 

consumption is concentrated in California, Florida, and Arizona. California harvests 

approximately 75 percent of U.S. fresh production. The value of production increased 22 

percent from 2011/12 ($349.1 million) to 2012/13 ($425.5 million), with most of the increase in 

the fresh sector.20

Imports of tangerine and mandarin varieties are highest in July through January. They

are at their lowest between February and May, when the domestic season and U.S. exports are at 

 

16 U.S. Census Bureau, as reported by Global Trade Information Services, Inc.

17 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Citrus Fruits Summary, various years. 

18 The proportion of U.S. fresh tangerine and mandarin variety production consumed domestically is the ratio of 

utilized fresh production minus exports divided by utilized fresh production. Data source: Foreign Agricultural 

Service, Production, Supply, and Distribution Online.

19 USDA/Economic Research Service, preliminary estimate for 2012/13.

20 National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), USDA, “Citrus Fruits 2013 Summary,” September 2013.
11

their peak (figure 10). Net imports (imports minus exports) supplied about 15 percent of U.S. 

consumption over the five years, 2008/09 through 2012/2013.

The United States produced 661,000 MT of tangerines and mandarin varieties in 2012/13, 

an increase of 47 percent from 2008/09. Over that same time period, imports increased by 18 

percent and total domestic supply increased by 40 percent. Over the period 2008/09 through 

2012/13, the United States imported an average of 5,700 MT of tangerine and mandarin varieties 

from South Africa, about 4 percent of U.S. imports. Since a significant portion of tangerine and 

mandarin varieties grown in South Africa are in areas that are CBS-free and already eligible to 

ship citrus to the United States, any increase in tangerine and mandarin imports as a result the of 

this proposed rule is likely to be limited. 

South Africa’s Citrus Industry

South Africa has the weather and climatic conditions conducive to the cultivation of a 

variety of types of citrus, and is an important player in world citrus markets. It is at or near the 

top of citrus-exporting countries even though it is not among the world’s larger producers. South 

Africa produced just 3 percent of the world’s oranges, grapefruit, tangerines and mandarin 

varieties, and lemons, and yet accounted for 20 percent of world exports of those fruits.21 A very 

 

21 USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service, production, supply and distribution, online.

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Figure 10. U.S Fresh Tangerine and Mandarin Trade

Monthly Quantity

Exports

Imports
12

large proportion of South Africa’s citrus production is exported to other countries; only 9 percent is 

consumed domestically as fresh produce. Twenty-seven percent of South Africa’s fresh citrus is 

processed into juice and other secondary products.22

The Western Cape Province and parts of the Eastern Cape Province are better suited for citrus 

such as mandarins and lemons, as these fruits prefer cooler regions. The other provinces have a warm 

climate and are ideal for orange and grapefruit production. Currently, citrus is only allowed to be 

imported from South Africa’s CBS-free areas, which are principally found in the Western Cape 

and Northern Cape Provinces.23 

Fresh Oranges

In 2012/13, South Africa produced 1.4 million MT of fresh oranges, accounting for 63 

percent of the country’s citrus production. On average, from 2007 through 2011, 74 percent of 

oranges (1.1 million MT) were exported.

24

 Northern Europe remains the largest destination 

market for South African oranges. About 24 percent of South Africa’s fresh orange exports were

to the Netherlands and the United Kingdom in 2012, 18 percent were to Saudi Arabia and the 

United Arab Emirates, and 11 percent were to Russia.

25

Over the period 2008/09 through 2012/13, South Africa exported an average of 33,700

MT of fresh oranges annually to the United States, accounting for about 30 percent of U.S. 

imports and about 3 percent of South African exports. 

 

22 South African Fruit Trade Flow, Issue No. 8, January 2013. National Agricultural Marketing Council.

23 http://www.aphis.usda.gov/import_export/plants/manuals/ports/downloads/DesignatedPestFreeAreas.pdf

24 Ibid.

25 Global Trade Atlas, Global Trade Information Services, Inc.
13

The U.S. production season for early, mid-season, and navel oranges runs from about 

November 1 through the middle of June, and the U.S. season for Valencia oranges runs from 

about January 1 through the end of July. The peak U.S. demand for imported oranges occurs as 

the U.S. production and marketing season for oranges is ending. This peak corresponds to the 

peak of South African orange exports to the world (figure 11).

Fresh Grapefruit

South Africa produced 410,000 MT of fresh grapefruit in 2012/13, and exported 242,000 

MT. The largest single export destination for South African fresh grapefruit is Japan, at 28 

percent. As with oranges, northern Europe is a significant export destination for fresh grapefruit. 

About 32 percent of total fresh grapefruit exports from South Africa were to the Netherlands and 

the United Kingdom in 2012. Another 8 percent was exported to Russia.26

Over the period 2008/09 through 2012/13, South Africa exported an average of 171 MT 

of fresh grapefruit annually to the United States, accounting for about 2 percent of total U.S. 

 

26 Ibid.

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Figure 11. US Orange growing season; Orange Trade

South Africa orange exports -

world

South Africa orange exports -

US

US orange imports - world

Early, mid-season, navel Orange 

Growing Season Nov 1 - Jun 15

Valencia Orange Growing 

Season Jan 1- July 31
14

imports of fresh grapefruit, and for less than 1 percent of total South African exports of 

grapefruit.

Fresh Tangerines, Tangelos, Mandarins, Clementines, and Similar Citrus Hybrids

South Africa produced 160,000 MT of fresh tangerine and mandarin varieties in 2012/13, 

and exported 126,000 MT. Northern Europe is the largest export destination for South African 

fresh tangerines and mandarin varieties. About 39 percent of total fresh tangerine and mandarin 

exports were to the United Kingdom, and 20 percent were to the Netherlands. Another 10 

percent were exported to Russia.27

Over the period 2008/09 through 2012/13, South Africa exported an average of 5,700 MT 

of tangerine and mandarin varieties to the United States, about 4 percent of total U.S. imports of 

tangerine and mandarin varieties, and less than 2 percent of total South African exports of 

tangerines and mandarin varieties. 

The U.S. production season for tangerine and mandarin varieties runs from about October 

1 through the middle of May. The peak U.S. demand for imported tangerine and mandarin 

 

27 Ibid.

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Figure 12. Fresh Tangerine and Mandarin Varieties;

U.S. Growing season; Trade

South Africa Tangerine exports

- world

South Africa Tangerine exports

- US

US Tangerine imports - world

Tangerine Growing Season

Oct 1 - May 15
15

varieties occurs as the U.S. production and marketing season for tangerines and mandarin 

varieties is ending. This peak corresponds to the peak of South African tangerine and mandarin 

variety exports to the world (figure 12).

Reasons Action is Being Considered

The proposed rule is in response to a request made by the national plant protection 

organization of the Republic of South Africa, the Department of Agriculture, Forestry & 

Fisheries, to grant the importation of citrus from CBS-affected areas into the United States. A 

systems approach would be used to mitigate the risks posed by this disease. The proposed 

combination of mitigations satisfies APHIS commitment under the International Plant Protection 

Convention to allow the importation of plants and plant products subject to the least restrictive 

measures consistent with ensuring phytosanitary security.

Objectives of and Legal Basis for the Rule

The objective of the proposed rule is to amend the regulations to allow the importation of 

five species of citrus from CBS-affected areas of South Africa utilizing a systems approach that

is equivalent to U.S. requirements for movement of citrus from domestic CBS-affected areas. 

The legal basis for this action is the Plant Protection Act (7 U.S.C. 7701-7772), which authorizes 

the Secretary of Agriculture to prohibit or restrict the importation of any plant product if the 

Secretary determines that the prohibition or restriction is necessary to prevent the introduction of 

a plant pest or noxious weed into the United States. The proposed rule is part of a continuing 

program to allow the importation of foreign agricultural products that APHIS has determined are 

without significant risk of introducing pests or diseases into the United States.
16

Potentially Affected Small Entities and Potential Effects

Entities potentially affected by the proposed rule are classified within the following 

industries, according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS): Orange 

Groves (NAICS 111310), Citrus Groves (except orange groves) (NAICS 111320), Postharvest 

Crop Activities (except cotton ginning) (NAICS 115114), Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Merchant 

Wholesalers (NAICS 424480), Pesticide and Other Agricultural Chemical Manufacturing 

(NAICS 325320), Farm Product Warehousing and Storage (NAICS 493130), Nursery and Tree 

Production (NAICS 111421), Fruit and Vegetable Markets (NAICS 445230), Packing and 

Crating (NAICS 488991), General Freight Trucking, local (NAICS 484110), and Wood 

Container and Pallet Manufacturing (NAICS 321920). 

According to 2012 Census of Agriculture data, there were a total of 9,437 operations 

producing oranges in the United States that year.

28

 In that year, 6,141 farms produced oranges as 

their primary product and were thus classified as Orange Groves according to the NAICS.29

More than 72 percent of orange producers had fewer than 25 acres, and 2 percent had 500 or 

more acres. However, the farms with fewer than 25 acres accounted for less than 6 percent of 

the total acreage devoted to orange production, while those with 500 or more acres accounted for 

over 58 percent. The national average acreage for orange producers was 71 acres in 2012; for 

orange producers with fewer than 25 acres, the average was 5.3 acres per farm. 

 

28 The number of orange farms in the United States, as reported by the 2012 Census of Agriculture, includes 

operations that produced oranges for processed utilization; in Florida, the majority of oranges are processed. USDA 

NASS. 2012 Census of Agriculture, Table 39. Specified Fruits and Nuts by Acres: 2012 and 2007, 

http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012/Full_Report/Volume_1,_Chapter_1_US/st99_1_039_039.pdf 

29 USDA NASS. 2012 Census of Agriculture, Table 51. Selected Characteristics of Farms by North American 

Industry Classification System: 2012,

http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012/Full_Report/Volume_1,_Chapter_1_US/st99_1_051_052.pdf. 

This is also the source for establishments classified within Citrus Groves (except orange groves) and Nursery and 

Tree Production.
17

Establishments classified as Orange Groves are considered small by the Small Business 

Administration (SBA) if annual sales are not more than $750,000. The average market value of 

crops sold by orange groves that year was approximately $318,000, well below the small-entity

standard of $750,000. Clearly, orange growers are predominantly small entities according to the 

SBA standard. 

According to 2012 Census of Agriculture data, there were a total of 3,007 operations 

producing lemons, 1,395 operations producing tangerines, and 2,144 operations producing 

grapefruit in the United States in 2012.

30 In that year, a total of 2,839 farms produced citrus 

other than oranges as their primary product and were thus classified as Citrus Groves (except 

orange groves) according to the NAICS. Establishments classified within NAICS Citrus Groves 

(except orange groves) are considered small by the SBA standard of annual sales not more than 

$750,000. The average market value of crops sold by non-orange citrus groves in 2012 was 

about $223,000, well below the small-entity standard of $750,000. Clearly, citrus growers are 

predominantly small entities according to the SBA standard of $750,000. 

Establishments classified within Postharvest Crop Activities (except cotton ginning) 

(NAICS 115114), are considered small by SBA standards if annual sales are not more than $7 

million. The percentage of establishments that meet this standard is not known; neither the 

Census of Agriculture nor the Economic Census reports revenue for these establishments. 

This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in performing services on crops, 

subsequent to their harvest, with the intent of preparing them for market or further processing. 

These establishments provide postharvest activities, such as crop cleaning, sun drying, shelling, 

fumigating, curing, sorting, grading, packing, and cooling. The available information on 

 

30 The number of citrus farms in the United States, as reported by the 2012 Census of Agriculture, includes 

operations that produced citrus for processing as well as fresh utilization.
18

packinghouse establishments engaged in postharvest crop activities indicates these entities to be 

predominantly small. In Florida, there were at least 142 packinghouses registered in 2007.31 

While the classification of these establishments by sales volume is not available, it is estimated 

that approximately 42 of the 142 registered packinghouses are large commercial citrus 

packinghouses with the remainder being small establishments known as gift packers in Florida. 

The Fresh Shippers Report, issued by Florida’s Citrus Administrative Committee, details 

quantities of fresh citrus shipments of the top 35 to 45 shippers of each season.32 At least 95 

percent of Florida fresh citrus shipments are packed by the top 35 to 45 packinghouses in the 

State.33 During the 2012/13 citrus season, annual sales for at least 21 of the top 42 shippers (50 

percent) were below the SBA size standard of $7 million. It is estimated that at least 85 percent 

of Florida’s citrus packers, including small gift packers, would be considered small according to 

the SBA size standard. In 2010, there were 74 packinghouses in California.34 Traditionally, 

approximately 60 percent of these packinghouses market the final product through such 

cooperatives as Sunkist Growers, Inc., the Central California Orange Growers Cooperative, and 

DNE World Fruit Sales.35 The remaining packinghouses market their final product 

independently. We do not have a definitive number of small-entity packinghouses that may be 

affected by this rule, and welcome public comment on their number and size, and how they may

be affected.

 

31 Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Division of Fruit & Vegetable Inspection. 

<http://www.doacs.state.fl.us/fruits>

32 “Fresh Shippers Report: 2012-13 Season Through July 31, 2013,” Citrus Administrative Committee, August 22, 

2013. <http://www.citrusadministrativecommittee.org/> 

33 Ibid.

34 California Citrus Mutual Report to the CDFA Board- June 30, 2010. Bob Blakely, Director of Industry 

Relations.

<http://www.californiacitrusmutual.com/pdf/CDFA_Board_Report_6302010.pdf > Date accessed: September 9, 

2011.

35 United States International Trade Commission (USITC), “Conditions of Competition for Certain Oranges and 

Lemons in the U.S. Fresh Market, Inv 332-469,” Publication 3863, Washington, D.C., July 2006.
19

Establishments classified within Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Merchant Wholesalers 

(NAICS 424480) are considered small by SBA standards if they employ not more than 100 

persons.

36 In 2012, there were 4,854 fresh fruit and vegetable merchant wholesalers in the United 

States with a total of 101,854 paid employees, or on average, 21 paid employees per 

establishment. Out of the 4,854 vegetable merchant wholesalers, about 96 percent of the 

establishments in this category employed fewer than 100 people.37 It is likely that domestic fruit 

merchant wholesalers that may be affected by the rule are predominantly, if not entirely, small 

entities.

Establishments classified within Pesticide and Other Agricultural Chemical 

Manufacturing (NAICS 325320) are considered small by SBA if they employ no more than 500 

employees. In 2012, there were 210 Pesticide and other agricultural chemical manufacturers in 

the United States with a total of 10,075 paid employees or on average, 48 paid employees per 

establishment. In 2012 about 87 percent of establishments in Pesticide and Other Agricultural 

Chemical Manufacturing employed fewer than 100 people.

38

Establishments classified within Farm Product Warehousing and Storage (NAICS 

493130), are considered small by SBA standards if annual sales are not more than $25.5 million. 

The latest sales receipt information from the Economic Census shows that in 2007 there were 

713 establishments in this category and 48 percent had sales revenue less than $25 million.39

Nursery and Tree Production (NAICS 111421) are considered to be small by SBA standards if 

annual sales are not more than $750,000. According to the 2012 Census of Agriculture, there 

 

36 U.S. Small Business Administration, Table of Small Business Size Standards http://www.sba.gov/content/tablesmall-business-size-standards 

37 U.S. Census Bureau. 2012 County Business Patterns. http://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html 

38 Ibid.

39 Receipts data from the 2012 Economic Census is not yet available. U.S. Census Bureau. 2007 County Business 

Patterns and 2007 Economic Census. http://www.census.gov/econ/susb/data/susb2007.html
20

were 32,048 of these establishments with average sales revenue of about $221,000, well below

the small-entity standard of $750,000. Clearly, nursery and tree producers are predominantly

small entities according to the SBA standard. 

Fruit and Vegetable Markets (NAICS 445230) are considered small by SBA standards if 

annual sales are not more than $7.0 million. According to the 2007 Economic Census there were 

3,314 establishments in this category and more than 92 percent had annual sales of less than $5 

million, well below the SBA standard for small entities.

Establishments in Packing and Crating (NAICS 488991) are considered to be small by

SBA standards if annual sales are not more than $25.5 million. The latest sales receipt 

information from the Economic Census shows that in 2007 there were 1,432 establishments in 

this category and about 93 percent had sales revenue less than $25 million.40 General Freight 

Trucking, local (NAICS 484110) are considered to be small by SBA standards if annual sales are 

not mare than $25.5 million. The latest sales receipt information from the Economic Census

shows that in 2007 there were 28,595 establishments in this category and about 95 percent had

sales revenue less than $25 million.41 Wood Container and Pallet Manufacturing (NAICS 

321920) are considered to be small if establishments employ no more than 500 employees. In 

2012, there were 2,666 establishments in this category in the United States with a total of 49,155 

paid employees, or an average of 18 per establishment. In 2012, nearly 100 percent of these 

establishments employed fewer than 500 people.

42

Additional import volumes because of the proposed rule would be influenced by current 

trends of citrus production, consumption and trade in South Africa and the United States. Actual 

 

40 U.S. Census Bureau. 2007 County Business Patterns and 2007 Economic Census.

http://www.census.gov/econ/susb/data/susb2007.html

41 Ibid

42 U.S. Census Bureau. 2012 County Business Patterns. http://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html 
21

changes in imports of South African citrus that occur would depend on a variety of factors. Consumers 

make their purchasing decisions for fresh citrus based on a number of factors besides prices, including 

qualitative attributes such as variety, flavor, juiciness, ease of peeling, appearance (color, shape and size), 

freshness,43 perceived health benefits, production methods (organic or traditional), and product origin 

(local, regional, domestic, and if imported, from what country).44,45 Consumers would benefit from 

additional purchasing options associated with additional fresh citrus imports from South Africa. 

Importers and distributors of South African fresh citrus would also benefit from the proposed 

rule as it would provide them with new business opportunities.

This action would greatly expand the area in South Africa where citrus may be grown 

and shipped to the United States. The majority of citrus production acreage in South Africa is in 

areas where CBS is present: 97 percent of grapefruit acreage, 91 percent of Valencia orange 

acreage, 85 percent of lemon acreage, 72 percent of navel orange acreage, and 54 percent of 

tangerine and mandarin variety acreage.

46

The United States could become an even more prominent export destination for South 

African citrus as a result of this proposed rule. However, additional South African citrus imports 

would compete with U.S. domestic production as well as with other citrus imports, particularly 

those from the Southern Hemisphere. Over the period 2008/09 through 2012/13, annual U.S. 

imports from countries in the Southern Hemisphere other than South Africa averaged 55,900 MT 

for oranges, 61,400 MT for tangerines and mandarin varieties, 181 MT for grapefruit, and 18,400 

 

43 Consumers crave farm-to-table freshness – A.T. Kearny Study Feb 2013. 

http://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/news_home/Consumer_Trends/2013/02/Consumers_crave_farm-totable.aspx?ID={4BE088F7-6672-4934-B3DF-6175753725B2}

44 National Restaurant Association “What’s Hot in 2014 Culinary Forecast,” December 2014. 

http://www.restaurant.org/News-Research/Research/What-s-Hot

45 Food Business News, “Local sourcing, nutrition to top 2013 restaurant trends” December 11, 2013 

http://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/news_home/Food-ServiceRetail/2012/12/Local_sourcing_nutrition_to_to.aspx?ID=%7b6B48F136-3E21-4016-88E1-

7B502BB981A1%7d&cck=1

46 Production and trade statistics from the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa, USDA Foreign 

Agriculture Service, and Global Trade Information Services, Inc.
22

MT for lemons and limes. These quantities accounted for about 50 percent of U.S. orange 

imports, about 43 percent of U.S. tangerine and mandarin variety imports, about 2 percent of U.S. 

grapefruit imports, and about 4 percent of U.S. lemon and lime imports.

The extent to which the United States may become a more prominent export destination 

for South African citrus could also be influenced by South Africa’s export prospects to the 

European Union. The EU suspended imports of citrus from South Africa in November 2013 due 

to concerns over CBS. While the suspension only applied to citrus from the 2012/13 season, 

more recently the EU has imposed more stringent import restrictions to mitigate the risk of CBS 

introduction. 47 As described, the European Union, particularly northern Europe, is an important 

destination for South African citrus exports, accounting for about 40 percent of South African 

citrus exports annually. South Africa is also experiencing increased competition for the 

European fresh orange market from countries such as Egypt.

Because any new imports of Valencia oranges would face strong competition from 

domestically produced fruit, the returns are not likely to be sufficient to make additional imports 

of Valencia oranges profitable for South African exporters. Therefore, we expect additional 

imports of Valencia oranges as a result of this rule to be limited. 

There may be an increase in navel orange imports as South Africa in response to the 

proposed rule, since 72 percent of the area in production could be newly eligible. Based on 

information provided by the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa, an additional 7,500 

MT of fresh oranges could be imported from South Africa.48 While domestic per capita 

consumption of oranges has been relatively constant, U.S. imports of oranges have increased 

from an annual average of about 80,000 MT from 2003/04 through 2007/08 to about 111,000 

 

47 http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-614_en.htm

48 500,000 cartons of oranges at 15kg per carton. Personal communication, Justin Chadwick, CEO Citrus Growers’ 

Association of Southern Africa.
23

MT annually from 2008/09 through 2012/13, a 40 percent increase. An increase in orange 

imports of 7,500 MT is equivalent to about 6 percent of 2012/13 fresh orange imports from all 

sources, would represent an increase of 22 percent over current import levels from South Africa, 

and 0.1 percent of U.S. fresh orange consumption. 

South African exporters are likely to find opportunities to expand sales of fresh grapefruit 

to the United States with publication of this rule. About 97 percent of grapefruit production 

areas in South Africa are not considered to be CBS-free and therefore not currently eligible to 

send citrus to the United States. Based on information provided by the Citrus Growers’ 

Association of Southern Africa, an additional 8,500 MT of fresh grapefruit could be imported 

from South Africa following the implementation of this rule.49 However, U.S. per capita 

consumption has been relatively flat over the last decade, and imports represent a small 

proportion of the overall domestic supply of grapefruit. 

South African exporters would be constrained to some extent by the same marketclearing price faced by all suppliers. U.S. imports of fresh grapefruit from South Africa have 

generally commanded a price premium relative to imports from other sources. This level of 

increase would roughly double U.S. fresh grapefruit imports, which averaged was about 8,700 

MT from all sources from 2008/09 through 2012/13. A doubling of current U.S. fresh grapefruit 

import levels would return imports to the level they were over the period 2003/04 through 

2007/08, about 17,000 MT. An increase in grapefruit imports of 8,500 MT would be equivalent 

to 0.95 percent of U.S. fresh grapefruit consumption and would represent a 43-fold increase in 

imports from South Africa.

 

49 500,000 cartons of grapefruit at 17kg per carton. Personal communication, Justin Chadwick, CEO Citrus 

Growers’ Association of Southern Africa.
24

A significant portion of tangerine and mandarin varieties grown in South Africa is in 

areas that are CBS-free. The Western Cape Province, for example, accounts for about 46 percent of 

total South African easy-peeler production. Therefore, any increase in tangerine and mandarin 

imports as a result of the proposed rule is likely to be limited. Based on information provided by 

the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa, an additional 4,500 MT of fresh tangerine 

and mandarin varieties could be imported from South Africa following the implementation of 

this rule.50 As noted, domestic per capita consumption and tangerine and mandarin variety 

imports have increased over the last decade, from an annual average of about 102,000 MT over 

the period 2003/04 through 2007/08 to about 142,500 MT annually from 2008/09 through 

2012/13, a 40 percent increase. An increase in tangerine and mandarin variety imports of 4,500 

MT would be equivalent to about 3 percent of current fresh tangerine and mandarin variety 

imports from all sources, about 0.6 percent of U.S. consumption of fresh tangerine and mandarin 

varieties, and would represent an increase of 79 percent over current import levels from South 

Africa.

No lemons from South Africa are currently imported into the United States, even though 

lemons grown in CBS-free areas are eligible. All citrus imported from South Africa must be 

cold treated, and lemons do not survive this cold treatment in a marketable condition. Therefore, 

no new lemon imports are expected following as a result of this proposed rule.

 

50 300,000 cartons of soft citrus varieties at 15kg per carton. Personal communication, Justin Chadwick, CEO Citrus 

Growers’ Association of Southern Africa.
25

Projected Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Other Compliance 

Requirements

Reporting and recordkeeping requirements associated with the proposed rule are 

discussed in the rule under the heading "Paperwork Reduction Act."

Duplication, Overlap, or Conflict with Existing Rules and 

Regulations

APHIS has not identified any duplication, overlap, or conflict of the proposed rule with 

other Federal rules.

Alternatives to minimize Significant Economic Impacts of 

the Rule

Based on our review of available information, APHIS does not expect the proposed rule 

to have a significant economic impact on small entities. We have prepared this initial regulatory

flexibility analysis because our understanding of possible economic effects of the rule on small 

entities is incomplete. In the absence of apparent significant economic impacts, we have not 

identified alternatives that would minimize such impacts.