Quarterly Refunding Charts

January 30, 2006

Office of Debt Management
2

Financing

Near Term Outlook

• FY 2006 Q2 and Q3 Outlook:

– We estimate net marketable borrowing of $188 billion th

and a pay down of $30 billion next quarter

• Anticipated increases in outlays and declining net SLGS issu

require increases in coupon issue sizes this fiscal year

• February refunding auctions will not be affected by pending 

concerns
3

• Q1 actual borrowing was 

slightly less than projected.

• SLGS net issuance is expected 

to continue to decline nearterm from record highs.

• March 15 and April 15 

issuances raise all new cash.

Maturing Coupons Co

Date (Excluding SOMA holdings) Paym

February 15, 2006 17.3 2February 28, 2006 26.0 1

March 15, 2006 0 1March 31, 2006 26.0 1

April 15, 2006 0 2April 30, 2006 26.0 1

(in dollar billion

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows

 Treasury Financing Requirements

($ Billions)

 (Projected) (Actuals) 

Deficit Funding (Def + / Surplus -) 134 119 Means of Financing

Change in Cash Balance 12 -1 Net Non-Marketable Financing 7 11 Net Marketable Financing 96 93 Other* 19 17 

Net Marketable Financing 96 93 

Bills 50Nominal Notes 32TIPS 15Bonds -4

Notes:Starting Cash Balance 36 36 Ending Cash Balance 25 37 

* Includes direct loan activity, changes in accrued interest, checks outstanding, minor miscellaneous transactions, discNote: Totals may not add due to rounding.

 October - December 2005 
4

• First time since Q1 2003 that 

bills accounted for more than 50 percent of net marketable borrowing.

• Cash balances have not varied 

significantly from previous years.

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

Calendar Quarter

52.1

52.5

15.1

82.6 60.3 81.5

145.9

-163.4

74.4

89

31.3

111.3 113.4 84.2

17.8

-200-160-120

-80-40

0

4080

120160

I-01 II III IV I-02 II III IV I-03 II III IV I-04 II 

$ billions

BuybacksOver 10 years5-10 years2-under 5 yearsBills

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

102030405060708090

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun J

$ billions

FY 2004FY 2005FY 2006

Note: Data through 
5

• State and Local Govt. Series 

(SLGS) issuance continues to decline from the peak of last summer.

• Percentage changes in auction 

sizes are within manageable levels.

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarke

 Calendar Quarter

-8.0

-5.0

-10.1

-2.2 -1.4

-1.7

-10.6

0.8

-5.5

-0.1 -0.7

7.6

-2.4

-8.4

7.6

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.

-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I 00 II III IV I 01 II III IV I 02 II III IV I 03 II III IV I 04 II II

$billions

State and Local Govt. SeriesSavings BondsForeign Series

Projected Net Marketable Borrowing and Hypothetica

-5.0%-2.5%

0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%

10.0%12.5%15.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 

Percent

Net Marketable Borrowing (RHS)

Projections are based on current OMB MSR budget estimates, except for Treasury's internal FY200financing needs are spread proportionally across auctioned securities to maintain constant maturity o

Bars represent percentage change in average auction size from prior year (LHS)

 Initial Hypothetical AucBills $15.5B (2-year $22B3-year $18B5-year $13B10-year $13B iss30-year $12.5B 5-year TIPS $10B (a10-year TIPS $8.5B (a20-year TIPS $9.5B (a
6

Debt Portfolio

• Average maturity of total outstanding remains stable at 55 months o

5 years 

• Average maturity of issuance rises to nearly 54 months due to re-int

the 30-year bond and remains stable 

• The percent of debt maturing with 3 years or less to maturity declin

57 percent

Assumptions used in the next 5 charts:

• Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across au

securities to maintain constant maturity of issuance, based on hypotauction sizes 

• OMB FY 2006 MSR budget estimates, with internal Treasury estim

fiscal year
7

• Average maturity stabilizes and 

will increase with 30-year bond issuance.

• TIPS continue to grow as a share 

of debt outstanding, while bills’ share is projected to decline.

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20

months

Average Maturity of Issua

Average Maturity 

As of December 31, 2005

Projections are based on current OMB MSR budget estimates, except for Treasury's internal FY 2006 eneeds are spread proportionally across auctioned securities to maintain constant maturity of issuance.

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding 

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

Projections are based on current OMB MSR budget estimates, except for Treasury's internal FY200needs are spread proportionally across auctioned securities to maintain constant maturity of issuan
8

• Debt with a residual 

maturity of 3 years or less trends toward lower end of historical ranges. 

• Bill issuance increases 

from recent lows.

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 3

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 200

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Projections are based on current OMB MSR budget estimates, except for Treasury's internal FY2006 esneeds are spread proportionally across auctioned securities to maintain constant maturity of issuance.

Percentage Breakdown of Annual Issuan

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bonds 

Note: Data through December 31, 2005.
9

• Net marketable borrowing is 

mostly concentrated in 5- and 10-year note issuance through FY 2008.

Treasury Annual Net Market Borrowin

-300-200-100

0

100200300400500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 

$ Billions

Buybacksover 10 years5-10 years2-under 5 yearsBills

Projected

Projections are based on current OMB MSR budget estimates, except for Treasury's internal FY2006 e

needs are spread proportionally across auctioned securities to maintain constant maturity of issuance.
10

Uncertainty

• Risks to projected financing needs during the n

years may require adjustments to Treasury’s fischedule if estimates deviate from central forec
11

• More recent estimates are 

marginally changed from previous chart release.

• Current coupon pattern and 

issuance amounts will provide around $237 billion of new financing in FY 2006.

Financing Residuals Given Current Issuance Calend

Assumes current coupon issuance pattern and issuance amount-- Weekly bill issuance at 

outstanding FY $ amounts equal to September 30, 2005 total outstan

-350-250-150

-50

50

150250350450550650

2006 2007 2008 2009 

Fiscal Years

$ billions

N et financing implied by FY06 OM B 

M SR Budget deficit forecast

N et financing plus average absolute 

N et financing error in OM B estimate

minus avg. absolute error in OM B est.

Bars indicate estimated change in financing required in given year for different deficit outcomes

Note: FY 2006 net financing am ount is an internal estim ate. 

N ote: Average historical errors were estimated with a linear least-squares regression using OM B's budget forecasts since the 19

since 1998.

Primary Deale

Current: 

Range based on average absolute forecast error 28

Estimates as of: Jan. 

Note: Ranges based on errors from 1997-2005.

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate.

FY 06 Deficit Estimates 
12

Capital Markets

• Foreign holdings of Treasury debt increased over the quarte

Treasury’s share of the money market continues to trend do
13

• Foreign demand for U.S. 

Treasury debt remains robust.

• Growth in commercial and 

short-term paper outstanding outpaced growth in total shortterm Treasuries outstanding in the third quarter of CY 2005. 

Outstanding Short-term Marketable Treasury Securities as a Per

Market Instruments

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200

Calendar Quarters

Short-term Marketable Treasuries = Treasury bills and Treasury coupon securities with 1 year or leMoney Market = Short-term Treasury securities, commercial paper, and open market paper.Sources: U.S. Treasury and U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors Flow of Funds statistical re

Foreign Holdings as a Percent of Total Privately Held Pub

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 

Calendar Year

Percent

Estimated foreign holdings as % of private. 2/Foreign and International Institutional Holdings at FRBNY as% of private. 3/

Benchmark 

* 

Revisions

1/ Privately held debt excludes holdings of the Federal Reserve System.2/ Data through November 30, 2005. 3/ Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY statistical release H4.1.
14

• Secondary market activity 

among Primary dealers in nominal Treasuries and TIPS has increased.

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%

4/22/98 10/22/984/22/99 10/22/994/22/00 10/22/004/22/01 10/22/014/22/02 10/22/024/22/03 10/22/034/22/0

% Turnover 

3-month Moving Averages of Daily TIPS and Nominal Treasuries Transac

Dealers and amount outstanding (ex-SOMA holdings)

Nominal Treasury turnover (RHS)

TIPS turnover red points are 
15

Auction Release Time Performanc

No current quarter exceptions to Treasury’s 2 minute auction release t

Auction Release Times for January 2005 - January 2006

Data through January 25, 2006

0:000:301:001:302:002:303:003:304:004:305:00

1/3/05 1/25/05 2/22/05 3/14/05 4/11/05 5/3/05 5/31/05 6/21/05 07/18/05 08/11/05 09/06/05 10/03/05 10/26/05 11/21/05 12/12

(In Minutes and Seconds)

Target release time ran