Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb

O
Office of Debt Management

Financing 

Summary of FY 2007 and Near Term Ou

 FY 2007 deficit was $163 billion versus $248 billion for FY 2 Net marketable borrowing for FY 2007 was $134 billion com

$203 billion in FY 2006

 FY 2007 net non-marketable borrowing was $44 billion vers

billion in FY 2006

 Net marketable borrowing for Q4 FY 2007 totaled $105 billFY 2008 Q1 and Q2 Outlook: Estimated net marketable borrow

• $68 billion October-December• $133 billion January-March
Office of Debt Management

Treasury Financing Requirements 

(Projected) (Actuals) 

Deficit Funding (Def + / Surplus -) 29 42 

Means of Financing

Change in Cash Balance -35 -50 Net Non-Marketable Financing -4 -8 Other* -6 -5 Net Marketable Financing 73 105 

Net Marketable Financing 73 105 

Bills 89Nominal Notes -13TIPS 15Bonds 14

Notes:

Starting Cash Balance 25 25 

Ending Cash Balance 60 75 

* Includes direct loan activity, changes in accrued interest, checks outstanding, minor miscellaneous transactions, discount and inflation accretion on Treasuries.

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

 July - September 2007

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupo

Paymen

November 15, 2007 52 21 November 30, 2007 19 3 December 15, 2007 0 1December 31, 2007 20 4 January 15, 2008 19 10 January 31, 2008 22 3 February 15, 2008 54 26 February 29, 2008 22 4 

 Deficit funding was 

higher in FY Q4 with bills being the major component for borrowing.

 Outflows remain large 

on November 15, 2007 and February 15, 2008 as securities maturing begin to rise.
Office of Debt Management

 Cash balance volatility 

generally followed the seasonal patterns of prior years.

 Total net marketable borrowing 

for FY 2007 was $134 billion, the lowest amount since FY 2001 surplus.

 Total net marketable borrowing 

for Q4 FY 2007 was $105 billion. 

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Quarter

52.1

52.5

15.1

84.2

82.6

111.3

60.3 81.5

113.4

145.9

31.3

89.0

97.8

144.2

-78.5

52.3

92.5

158.0

-

-200-160-120

-80-40

0

4080

120160200

I-02 II III IV I-03 II III IV I-04 II III IV I-05 II III IV I-06 II 

$ billions

Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPSBuybacks

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

255075

100125

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun J

$ billions

FY 2006FY 2007FY 2008

Note: Data thro
Office of Debt Management

 Q4 net nonmarketable 

issuance had the largest decline since April-June 2003. 

 There was a record pay down 

in Savings Bonds of nearly $14 billion in FY 2007, surpassing the previous pay down record of $10 billion in FY 2000.

 Bill issuance increased in Q4 

2007.

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issua

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bonds 

Note: Data through September 30, 2007.

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketab

 Fiscal Quarter

0.8

-5.5

-0.1 -0.7

7.6

-2.4

-8.4

7.6

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.0

1.1

16.6

24.4

16.3

10.7

-2.2

4.1

-6

-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I 02 II III IV I 03 II III IV I 04 II III IV I 05 II III IV I 06 II III IV 

$billions

State and Local Govt. SeriesSavings BondsForeign Series
Office of Debt Management

Debt Portfolio

Assumptions used in the next 4 charts: Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally acros

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auc

These sizes are based on the most recently announced amounts assume the outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2007.

 OMB 2008 MSR Budget deficit estimates used for FY2008-20Using the above assumptions, over the next 5 years:

 Average maturity of total outstanding and average maturity of 

settle to about 60 months 

 The percent of debt maturing with 3 years or less to maturity st

53 percent
Office of Debt Management

 Based on current assumptions, 

average maturity of issuance peaks in FY 2008.

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, current issuance patterns would lead to an increased share of longer-term debt.

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 

months

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

Net financing projections for FY 2008-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportion

derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizes are based on the most recently announced amounts and assume the outs

1 Quarterly data are actuals through September 30, 2007. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter average. 2 Quarterly data are actuals through September 30, 2007. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by 

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

Net financing projections for FY 2008-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs are sp

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizes are based on the most recently announclevel of bills on September 30, 2007.
Office of Debt Management

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, projected short-term debt rollover percentages will continue to decline.

 Based on OMB MSR fiscal 

assumptions, net marketable borrowing will rise in FY 2008, but declines steadily thereafter. 

Treasury Annual Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Year

-109 -100

-213 -97

204 336

379

216

203

134

240

23

-300-250-200-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350400450

FY 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200

$ billions

BuyOveOve5-15-12-uBill

Projected 

Net financing projections for FY 2008-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportionall

from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizes are based on the most recently announced amounts and assume the outstanding lev

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 200

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Net financing projections for FY 2008-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs are sp

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizes are based on the most recently announ

level of bills on September 30, 2007.
Office of Debt Management

Uncertainty

 OMB MSR estimates indicate an increased borrowing need in F

with an eventual return to surplus in FY 2012

 Volatility in projected receipts, economic uncertainty, and reduc

marketable debt issuance could lead to increasing financing nee
Office of Debt Management

 State and Local Government 

Series (SLGS) issuance remains volatile.

 Net SLGS issuance in FY 

2007 totaled $58 billion versus $14 billion in FY 2006, $67 billion in FY 2005, and $10 billion in FY 2004.

State and Local Governments (SLGS) 

Calendar year

0

102030405060

$ B illions

Gross IssuesRedemptions

-10

-5

05

1015202530

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 

$ B illions

Net SLGs
Office of Debt Management

 Primary dealers 

currently estimate a FY2008 deficit of $203 billion, with a potential error of nearly +/- $80 billion.

 Based on OMB 

projections, the implied additional marketable financing need is $161 billion for FY 2008.

Financing Need Given Current Issuance Calendar 

Assumes current coupon issuance pattern and issuance amount-- Weekly bill issuance at levels 

outstanding FY $ amounts equal to September 30, 2007 total outstanding

-450-350-250-150

-50

50

150250350450

2008 2009 2010 2011 

Fiscal Years

$ billions

Net financing i

by FY2008 OMMSR deficit fo

Net financing plus average absolute 

difference in OMB estimate

Net financing

minus avg. absolute difference in OMB 

Bars indicate estimated change in financing required in given year for different deficit outcomes

Note: FY 2008 net financing is an internal Treasury estimate.Source: Average historical differences between estimates and actual deficit or surplus are from OMB's 2008 Budget Table 20-7.

FY 08 Deficit Estimates 

Primary Dealers* 

Current: 203 Range based on average absolute forecast error 119-287 Estimates as of: October 07 A

Note: Ranges based on errors from 2003-2007.

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate.