# TIM v3.0 (T err es trial In ve st ig at ion Model)

Pr esen tation to the EMPM TIM team: Brian Ander son, K ris Garber , Nick Mas tr ota, Ed Odenkir chen 10/28/14

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# Outline

• Model overview • Discussion of model componen ts • Bir d beha vior • Dif fe re nte xposur e r outes • Mortality 

### • Model re sults • Ex ample application • Futur e work

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# Model Ov er vie w

DrinkingDermal Tr eat ed field Adjacent ar ea (receives spraydrift)

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# Model Ov er vie w

DrinkingDermal Tr eat ed field Adjacent ar ea (receives spraydrift)

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# Model o ve rv ie w
• Ea ch e xposur e ro ute considers • Uptake rate • En vir onmen ta l concentr ation 

### • To ta l dose at an y time s te p • S um of all e xposur e r outes at that time step • Carry ove r fr om pr evious time s te p • Elimination • Con ve rt ed to or al - equiv alen t



### • Mort ality occurs when to ta l dose exc eeds individual sensitivity • Select ed fr om dose - re sponse cur ve based on LD50 and slope retained t total t dermal t inhalation t drinking t diet t total 

### F D D D D D D * ) 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (  

###     

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# Va riability and Uncert ain ty

• The model uses dis tributions to accoun t for man y sour ces of va riability • Body weight • Consumption r ate s • En vir onmen ta l concentr ations • Bir d movement 

### • Uncert ain ty associated with model par ameters c an be addr essed by the model user • Fo r e xa mple: en te ring r ang es of LD50 and confidence inter va ls of slope v alues to bound risk pr edictions
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# Species par ame te rs

• Body Weigh t • Diet • Fr equency on field and fidelity fact or • 30 generic species • 3 body siz es (small, medium, large ) • 5 diets (insectiv or e, gr aniv or e, herbiv or e, frugiv or e, omniv or e) • 2 r esiden t s tatuses (field, edge) 

### • Cus to m species • Non - lis te d and lis te d
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# Bir d beha vior
• Fe eding times • Bimodal fe eding patte rn (morning and afternoon) 

### • Movement • Bir ds move between each time step during fe eding period • Bir ds ar e on the nes t when not feeding • Sev er al e xposur e r outes ar e 0 when not fe eding • Diet, drinking , dermal • Field and edg e re siden ts tr ea te d differ en tly **Hypothetical examples of the avian bimodal**  **fe eding**  **pattern. X -**  **axis is hour of da y; Y** **- axis is**  **daily dietary**  **fr action.** 

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# Spr ayd rift tr ansport (ne w t o v er sion 3)
• Model includes spr ayd rift deposition calculations • Considers movement of bir d on and off field • Calculat es dist ance fr om edg e of field based on siz e of home rang e • Nest loc ated at center of home r ang e Area with no pesticide exposure Treated field Spray drift zone Bird #1 Home range d 1 d 2 d d’

Bird #2 Home range 304 m
d 3 ’

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# Exposur es

• Function of upt ake and concentr at ion • Uptake rates based on allometric equations • Concen trations in air and wat er based on equilibrium partitioning models 

### • Fo od items consider ed • Arthr opods, seeds, fruit, grass, br oadleaf 

### • Inhala tion • Dr oplets and volatiliz ed residues 

### • Dermal • Dir ect sprayand c on ta ct with foliag e 

### • Drinking water • Puddle and dew 10

# Comparison of dif fe re ntv er sions

• FIFRA S AP R eviews • Ve rs ion 1: 2001 • Ve rs ion 2: 2004 **Model Component version**  **1.0 (2**  **- 21**  **- 2001**  **) version**  **2.0**

**(3 -**  **10 -**  **2004) version**  **3.0**

**(9 -**  **2014) Species**  **considered** Fo cal Generic **Generic or focal**  **Dur ation**  **of exposure** 7 days User defined **User defined Time step**  User defined Hourly **Hourly Exposure routes**  **considered** Dietary Drinking water Dietary

Drinking water Inhalation Dermal **Dietary**

**Drinking water Inhalation**  **Dermal Spr** **ay drift** No No **Ye s**  **Feeding pattern**  Unimodal Bimodal **Bimodal Serial correlation**  **between fo**  **ra ging events**  None Ye s **Ye s**  **Drinking water ex**  **posure from**  **puddles** Addressed using PRZM 4 outputs Addressed using

complex model comparable to PRZM 4 conceptual model **Addressed using** 

**equilibrium partitioning**  **approach Number**  **of pesticide applications**  **modeled** 1 1 **Up to 5 User has ability to turn**  **on/ off**  **ex posure**  **routes** Ye s No **Ye s**  **Model platform Ex** **cel and Crystal Ball**  **C executable**

**with Ex cel GUI**  **C executable (currently** 

**working on developing Matlab**  **GUI)** 11

# Model r esults

• Number of dead bir ds • Pr obabilities associated with killing x bir ds out of a flock • PDF (pr obability associated with killing e xa ctly x bir ds) • CDF (pr obability of killing ≤ x bir ds) • CCDF (pr obability of killing > x bir ds) 

### • Re lative import ance of e xposur e ro utes • Time of death

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# Ex ample applic at ion

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# Species of in te re st : Lesser P ra irie Chicken

• Thr ea te ned species • Po pula tion es timate = 37,000 bir ds • Location: CO , KS, NM, OK, TX 

### • Charact eris tics of adults • BW: 727 g (mean for females) • Diet: insects, seeds, gr ass • Ed ge nes te r • Ava ilable information indicates that individuals ma y visit agricultur al fields in Spring and F all to consume seeds • Insects, gr ass and seeds ar e e xpect ed to be consumed thr oughout the year in their nativ e habit at, which is pr airie
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# Pe st icide of in te re st

• Ve ry highly to xic t o bir ds • LD50 for bobwhite quail = 5.2 mg /kg - bw 

### • Fa te pr operties • Mobile ( Ko c = 600) • Moder ate ly per sis te nt • Foliar dissipation half- life = 5 d • Aerobic soil metabolism half life = 40 d • Semi v olatile 

### • Use • Corn • 1 gr ound application at 2 lb a.i ./ A 15

# Tier I r esults
• T - REX acut e dose - based RQs (B W = 727 g) e xc eed lis te d species LO C (0.1) fo r all food it ems • AgDRIFT analy sis indicates that risk e xt ends as far as 470 fe et fr om edge of field (E OF) • Conclusion: potential risk of mort ality t o individuals consuming seeds on tr eated field and other food items within edge habit at **Food item**  **upper bound RQ mean RQ**  **Distance ( ft**  **) from EOF wh**  **ere risks extend** Short Grass 24 8.6 470 Ta ll Grass 11 3.6 260 Arthropods 9.5 6.6 220 Seeds 0.34 0.16 10 16

# Tier II analy sis with TIM

• Tw o scenarios: • Individuals nes t in edge habitat that r eceiv es spr aydrift • Adults do not for age on treated field • Adults ar e assumed t o be within 1000 fe et from E OF • Diet : insects (55%), seeds (22%), gr ass (23%)
• Individuals for ag e in field for seeds after corn is har ve ste d • Dermal and inhalation r out es turned of f

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# Re sults
• Scenario 1 (spraydrift) • Mortality to 0.62% of simulated bir ds • Very fine to fine dr oplet spectrum • Probability of mortality to one or mor e bir ds (out of 25): 0.14 • Diet w as dominant r out e of e xposur e for dead bir ds • No mortality to an y simulated bir ds with fine to medium/coar se dr oplets


### • Scenario 2 (consumption of seeds and puddles on field) • Mortality to 0.50% of simulated bir ds • Pr obability of mortality to one or mor e bir ds: 0.12 • 50% r ate re duction r esults in subs ta nt ially lower risk of mortality • Probability of mortality to one or mor e bir ds: 0.0094 18

# Conclusions
• The curr en t use patte rn poses a risk t o individual lesser prairie chickens
• Po te nt ial mitig ation options fo r r educing risks include: • Use of spr ayno zzles that pr oduce medium/coar se dr oplets • Ra te re ductions

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# Futur e w ork

• Bet a tes t • Sensitivity analy sis • Explor e application of TIM for E SAcase s tudies • Diazinon, chlorpyrifos, malathion 

### • In te grate TIM and MCnes t • Dev elop GUI • Add population model

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