TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 PURPOSE OF THE DOCUMENT ...........................................................................1-1 1.2 OVERVIEW OF THE APPLIANCES AND COMMERCIAL EQUIPMENT STANDARDS PROGRAM.................................................................................1-1 1.3 OVERVIEW OF THE SUBCATEGOR IES OF LAMPS COVERED .....................1-2 1.4 PROCESS FOR SETTING ENERGY CONERVATION STANDARDS................1-4 1.5 STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT......................................................................1-7

CHAPTER 2. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

2.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................2-1 2.2 BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................2-4 2.3 MARKET AND TECHNOLO GY ASSESSMENT ..................................................2-4 2.3.1 Market Assessment ..........................................................................................2-4 2.3.2 Technology Assessment...................................................................................2-5 2.3.3 Product Classes ................................................................................................2-5 2.4 SCREENING ANALYSIS ........................................................................................2-5 2.5 ENGINEERING ANALYSIS....................................................................................2-5 2.5.1 Representative Product Classes .......................................................................2-6 2.5.2 Selected Baseline Lamps .................................................................................2-6 2.5.3 Identified Lamps and Ballast Designs .............................................................2-6 2.5.4 Developed Efficacy Levels..............................................................................2-6 2.6 ENERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION .................................................................2-7 2.7 PRODUCT PRICE DETERMINATION ..................................................................2-7 2.8 LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PA YBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS ...............................2-7 2.9 SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS.........................................................................................2-8 2.9.1 Shipment Scenarios..........................................................................................2-8 2.10 NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS..........................................................................2-9 2.10.1 National Energy Savings Analysis.................................................................2-10 2.10.2 Net Present Value Analysis ...........................................................................2-10 2.11 LIFE-CYCLE COST SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS.....................................................2-11 2.12 MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS..............................................................2-11 2.13 UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS...............................................................................2-11 2.14 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ......................................................................2-12 2.15 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS...................................................................2-13 2.16 REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS....................................................................2-13 2.17 DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE REVIEW .................................................................2-13

CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT3.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................3-1 3.1.1 Definitions........................................................................................................3-1 3.1.1.1 Fluorescent Lamps............................................................................3-1 3.1.1.2 General Service Fluorescent Lamps .................................................3-2 3.1.1.3 Incandescent Reflector Lamps..........................................................3-3 3.2 MARKET ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................3-4 3.2.1 Trade Association ............................................................................................3-4 3.2.2 Manufacturers and Market Share.....................................................................3-5 3.2.2.1 Small Businesses...............................................................................3-5 3.2.3 Regulatory Programs .......................................................................................3-6 3.2.3.1 Federal Energy Conser vation Standards...........................................3-6 3.2.3.2 Canadian Energy Efficiency Standards ............................................3-9 3.2.4 Non-Regulatory Initiatives...............................................................................3-11 3.2.4.1 Federal Energy Management Program .............................................3-11 3.2.4.2 Consortium for Energy Efficiency....................................................3-11 3.2.4.3 Energy Efficient Commer cial Building Deduction...........................3-12 3.2.4.4 Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships........................................3-12 3.2.5 Historical Shipments........................................................................................3-12 3.3 TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT..............................................................................3-15 3.3.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................................3-15 3.3.1.1 Highly Emissive El ectrode Coatings ................................................3-17 3.3.1.2 Higher Efficiency Lamp Fill Gas Composition................................3-17 3.3.1.3 Higher Efficiency Phosphors ............................................................3-19 3.3.1.4 Glass Coatings ..................................................................................3-24 3.3.1.5 Higher Efficiency Lamp Diameter....................................................3-24 3.3.1.6 Multi-Photon Phosphors ...................................................................3-25 3.3.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.........................................................................3-25 3.3.2.1 Higher Temperature Operation.........................................................3-26 3.3.2.2 Microcavity Filaments ......................................................................3-27 3.3.2.3 Novel Filament Materials .................................................................3-28 3.3.2.4 Thinner Filaments .............................................................................3-28 3.3.2.5 Efficient Filament Coiling ................................................................3-28 3.3.2.6 Crystallite Filament Coatings ...........................................................3-28 3.3.2.7 Efficient Filament Orientation ..........................................................3-28 3.3.2.8 Higher Efficiency Inert Fill Gas .......................................................3-29 3.3.2.9 Luminescent Gas...............................................................................3-29 3.3.2.10 Tungsten-Halogen Lamps...............................................................3-29 3.3.2.11 Higher Pressure Tungsten-Halogen Lamps ....................................3-29 3.3.2.12 Non-Tungsten-Halogen Regenerative Cycles.................................3-30 3.3.2.13 Infrared Glass Coatings...................................................................3-30 3.3.2.14 Infrared Phosphor Glass Coating....................................................3-30 3.3.2.15 Integrally Ballasted Low-Voltage Lamps.......................................3-30 3.3.2.16 Higher Efficiency Reflector Coatings.............................................3-31 3.3.2.17 Trihedral Corner Reflectors ............................................................3-31 3.3.2.18 Efficient Filament Placement..........................................................3-31 3.4 PRODUCT CLASSES...............................................................................................3-313.4.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................................3-32 3.4.1.1 Physical Constraints of Fluorescent Lamps......................................3-33 3.4.1.2 Lumen Package.................................................................................3-33 3.4.1.3 Correlated Color Temperature ..........................................................3-34 3.4.1.4 Ballast Interoperability......................................................................3-34 3.4.1.5 Lamp Wattage...................................................................................3-34 3.4.1.6 Lamp Diameter .................................................................................3-35 3.4.1.7 Color Rendering Index......................................................................3-35 3.4.1.8 Product Classes and Sta ndard Form for GSFL.................................3-36 3.4.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.........................................................................3-36 3.4.2.1 Wattage .............................................................................................3-36 3.4.2.2 Modified Spectrum ...........................................................................3-37 3.4.2.3 Lamp Diameter .................................................................................3-38 3.4.2.4 Rated Voltage....................................................................................3-38 3.4.2.5 Spot Versus Flood Incandescent Reflector Lamps ...........................3-39 3.4.2.6 Product Classes and Standard Form for IRL ....................................3-39 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .3-40

CHAPTER 4. SCREENING ANALYSIS

4.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................4-1 4.2 SCREENED-OUT TECHNOLGIES.........................................................................4-2 4.2.1 General Service Fluorescent La mp Screened-Out Technologies ....................4-2 4.2.1.1 Multi-Photon Phosphors ...................................................................4-2 4.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamp Screened-Out Technologies.............................4-2 4.2.2.1 Microcavity Filaments ......................................................................4-2 4.2.2.2 Novel Filament Materials .................................................................4-3 4.2.2.3 Crystallite Filament Coatings ...........................................................4-3 4.2.2.4 Luminescent Gas...............................................................................4-4 4.2.2.5 Non-Tungsten-Halogen Regenerative Cycles...................................4-4 4.2.2.6 Infrared Phosphor Glass Coating......................................................4-4 4.2.2.7 Integrally Ballasted Low Voltage Lamps .........................................4-5 4.2.2.8 Trihedral Corner Reflectors ..............................................................4-5 4.3 SUMMARY OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS SCREENED OUT............................4-6 4.4 REMAINING TECHNOLOGIES .............................................................................4-6 4.4.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps Design Options ......................................4-6 4.4.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps Design Options...............................................4-6 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .4-8

CHAPTER 5. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

5.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................5-1 5.2 ENGINEERING ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK.........................................................5-1 5.3 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT LAMPS....................................................5-35.3.1 Four-Foot MBP GSFL With CCTs ≤ 4,500K..................................................5-6 5.3.1.1 Baseline Models................................................................................5-6 5.3.1.2 Efficacy Levels .................................................................................5-8 5.3.1.3 System Power Rating........................................................................5-12 5.3.1.4 Results...............................................................................................5-22 5.3.2 Eight-foot SP Slimline GSFL With CCTs ≤ 4,500K.......................................5-31 5.3.2.1 Baseline Models................................................................................5-31 5.3.2.2 Efficacy Levels .................................................................................5-32 5.3.2.3 System Power Rating........................................................................5-36 5.3.2.4 Results...............................................................................................5-41 5.3.3 Eight-Foot RDC HO GSFL With CCTs ≤ 4,500K..........................................5-45 5.3.3.1 Baseline Models................................................................................5-45 5.3.3.2 Efficacy Levels .................................................................................5-45 5.3.3.3 System Power Rating........................................................................5-48 5.3.3.4 Results...............................................................................................5-50 5.3.4 Four-foot T5 MiniBP SO GSFL With CCTs ≤ 4,500K...................................5-54 5.3.4.1 Baseline Models................................................................................5-54 5.3.4.2 Efficacy Levels .................................................................................5-54 5.3.4.3 System Power Rating........................................................................5-57 5.3.4.4 Results...............................................................................................5-58 5.3.5 Four-foot T5 MiniBP HO GSFL With CCTs ≤ 4,500K ..................................5-61 5.3.5.1 Baseline Models................................................................................5-61 5.3.5.2 Efficacy Levels .................................................................................5-61 5.3.5.3 System Power Rating........................................................................5-64 5.3.5.4 Results...............................................................................................5-64 5.4 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS...............................................................5-66 5.4.1 Baseline Models for IRL With Diamet ers Greater Than 2.5 Inches and Operating Voltages Less Than or Equal to 125V .......................................................................5-67 5.4.2 Efficacy Levels ................................................................................................5-67 5.4.3 Results..............................................................................................................5-70 5.5 SCALING TO PRODUCT CL ASSES NOT ANALYZED ......................................5-73 5.5.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................................5-73 5.5.1.1 2-foot U-Shaped GSFL With CCTs ≤ 4,500K..................................5-73 5.5.1.2 Lamps With CCTs Above 4,500K....................................................5-74 5.5.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.........................................................................5-76 5.5.2.1 Modified-Spectrum IRL....................................................................5-76 5.5.2.2 IRL With Diameters Less Than or Equal To 2.5 Inches...................5-76 5.5.2.3 IRL With Operating Voltages Greater Than or Equal to 125 Volts .5-77 5.6 SUMMARY OF ALL EFFICACY LEV ELS FOR COVERED PRODUCTS .........5-78 5.6.1 Summary of All Efficacy Levels for Covered GSFL ......................................5-78 5.6.2 Summary of All Efficacy Levels for Covered IRL..........................................5-79 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .5-80

CHAPTER 6. ENERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION6.1 PURPOSE OF THE DOCUMENT ...........................................................................6-1 6.2 OPERATING HOURS ..............................................................................................6-1 6.3 RESULTS OF THE ENERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION ................................6-9 6.3.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................................6-9 6.3.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.........................................................................6-13 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .6-16

CHAPTER 7. PRODUCT PRICE DETERMINATION

7.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................7-1 7.2 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................7-1 7.2.1 End-User Product Price....................................................................................7-1 7.2.2 Sales Tax..........................................................................................................7-5 7.3 PRODUCT PRICE DETERMINATION RESULTS ................................................7-5 7.3.1 End-User Prices for Genera l Service Fluorescent Lamps................................7-5 7.3.2 End-User Prices for Inca ndescent Reflector Lamps ........................................7-8 7.3.3 Sales Tax Results .............................................................................................7-9 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .7-10

CHAPTER 8. LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSES

8.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................8-1 8.1.1 General Approach for Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses ...........8-1 8.1.2 Overview of LCC and PBP Inputs...................................................................8-3 8.2 LIFE-CYCLE COST INPUTS ..................................................................................8-6 8.2.1 Definition .........................................................................................................8-6 8.2.2 Total Installed Cost Inputs...............................................................................8-7 8.2.2.1 Installation Costs...............................................................................8-8 8.2.3 Operating Cost Inputs ......................................................................................8-10 8.2.3.1 Operating Hours................................................................................8-10 8.2.3.2 Power Rating.....................................................................................8-11 8.2.3.3 Electricity Prices ...............................................................................8-12 8.2.3.4 Electricity Price Trend ......................................................................8-13 8.2.4 Lifetime............................................................................................................8-15 8.2.5 Replacement Cost ............................................................................................8-16 8.2.6 Disposal Cost ...................................................................................................8-17 8.2.7 Analysis Period ................................................................................................8-17 8.2.8 Discount Rate...................................................................................................8-18 8.2.8.1 Residential Discount Rate.................................................................8-18 8.2.8.2 Commercial Discount Rate...............................................................8-22 8.2.9 Effective Date of Standard...............................................................................8-25 8.2.10 Residual Value...............................................................................................8-26 8.3 PAYBACK PERIOD INPUTS..................................................................................8-26 8.3.1 Definition .........................................................................................................8-268.3.2 Rebuttable Presumption Payback Period.........................................................8-27 8.3.3 Inputs................................................................................................................8-28 8.4 LAMP PURCHASING EVENTS .............................................................................8-28 8.5 LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PA YBACK PERIOD RESULTS..................................8-32 8.5.1 Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps..............................................8-33 8.5.1.1 Product Class: Fou r-foot medium bipin ≤ 4,500K.............................8-34 8.5.1.2 Product Class: 4-foot T5 miniature bipin high output ≤ 4,500K .......8-51 8.5.1.3 Product Class: 4-foot T5 mi niature bipin standard output ≤ 4,500K.8-53 8.5.1.4 Product Class: 8-Foot single pin slimline ≤ 4,500K..........................8-55 8.5.1.5 Product Class: 8-foot recessed double contact HO ≤ 4,500K............8-64 8.5.2 Life-Cycle Cost Results for Incandescent Reflector Lamps............................8-73 8.6 DETAILED RESULTS AND SENSITIVITY RUNS...............................................8-80 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .8-81

CHAPTER 9. TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS

9.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................9-1 9.2 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT LAMPS....................................................9-1 9.2.1 Representative Product Classes .......................................................................9-1 9.2.2 Trial Standard Levels.......................................................................................9-2 9.3 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS...............................................................9-4 9.3.1 Representative Product Classes .......................................................................9-4 9.3.2 Trial Standard Levels.......................................................................................9-4

CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................10-1 10.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY..............................................................10-1 10.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ..............................................................10-2 10.2.1.1 Analyzed Product Classes, Market Sectors, and Market Segments10-2 10.2.1.2 Lamp Replacement .........................................................................10-3 10.2.1.3 Lamp-and-Ballast System Replacement (Ballast Failure and System Retrofit)..........................................................................................................10-3 10.2.1.4 Lamp-and-Ballast System New Purchase (Fixture Replacement, Renovation, and New Construction)..............................................................10-5 10.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................................10-7 10.3 BASE CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS..............................................................10-8 10.3.1 Base Case Scenarios Analyzed ......................................................................10-8 10.3.2 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ..............................................................10-10 10.3.2.1 Base Case Scenarios .......................................................................10-10 10.3.2.2 Historical Shipments.......................................................................10-11 10.3.2.3 Calculation of Installed Stock in 2005............................................10-12 10.3.2.4 Base Case Market-Share Matrices..................................................10-13 10.3.2.5 Base Case Forecast Results.............................................................10-2310.3.2.6 Base Case Forecast by Market Segment.........................................10-29 10.3.3 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................................10-32 10.3.3.1 Base Case Scenarios Analyzed .......................................................10-32 10.3.3.2 Historical Shipments.......................................................................10-33 10.3.3.3 Calculation of Installed Stock in 2005............................................10-34 10.3.3.4 Base Case Market-Share Matrices..................................................10-35 10.3.3.5 Base Case Forecast Results.............................................................10-36 10.3.3.6 Base Case Forecast by Market Segment.........................................10-37 10.4 STANDARDS CASE INPUTS .................................................................................10-38 10.4.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ..............................................................10-38 10.4.1.1 Shipments Scenarios .......................................................................10-38 10.4.1.2 Standards-Case Market-Share Matrices..........................................10-41 10.4.1.3 Early Retirement of Ballasts in the Standards-Cases......................10-75 10.4.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................................10-78 10.4.2.1 Shipments Scenarios .......................................................................10-78 10.4.2.2 Standards-Case Market-Share Matrices..........................................10-80 10.5 RESULTS ..................................................................................................................1 0-86 10.5.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ..............................................................10-86 10.5.1.1 Shipments Forecasts: Base and Standards-Cases ...........................10-86 10.5.1.2 Cumulative Shipments Impacts (2012 – 2042)...............................10-93 10.5.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................................10-96 10.5.2.1 Shipments Forecasts: Ba se and Standards-Cases ..........................10-97 10.5.2.2 Cumulative Shipments Impacts (2012–2042).................................10-98 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .10-100

CHAPTER 11. NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

11.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................11-1 11.2 BASE-CASE AND STANDARDS-CAS E FORECASTED EFFICACY DISTRIBUTIONS, LAMP STOCKS, AND AVERAGE EFFICACY.................................11-2 11.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ..............................................................11-2 11.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficacy Distributions............................11-2 11.2.1.2 Installed Lamp Stock ......................................................................11-11 11.2.1.3 Average Lamp Efficacy in the Stock..............................................11-21 11.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................................11-30 11.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficacy Distributions............................11-30 11.2.2.2 Installed Lamp Stock ......................................................................11-32 11.2.2.3 Average Lamp Efficacy of the Stock..............................................11-36 11.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ...........................................................................11-38 11.3.1 National Energy Sa vings Definition ..............................................................11-38 11.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs.....................................................................11-39 11.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)...................................................11-40 11.3.2.2 Lamp Stock .....................................................................................11-40 11.3.2.3 Site-to-Source C onversion Factors .................................................11-4011.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ve ntilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) Systems ..........................................................................................................11-41 11.3.2.5 Rebound Rate..................................................................................11-42 11.4 NET PRESENT VALUE...........................................................................................11-42 11.4.1 Net Present Value Definition.........................................................................11-42 11.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs ...............................................................................11-43 11.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ............................................11-43 11.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings ............................................11-44 11.4.2.3 Discount Factor...............................................................................11-44 11.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS......11-45 11.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary.................11-45 11.5.2 Base Case Energy Consumption....................................................................11-46 11.5.3 National Energy Savings Results...................................................................11-50 11.5.3.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ...............................................11-51 11.5.3.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps........................................................11-54 11.5.4 Annual Costs and Savings .............................................................................11-55 11.5.5 Net Present Value Results..............................................................................11-59 11.5.5.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ...............................................11-60 11.5.5.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps........................................................11-64

CHAPTER 12. LIFE-CYCLE CO ST SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS

12.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................12-1 12.2 SUB-GROUP DEFINITIONS AND INPUTS TO THE SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS12-1 12.2.1 Low-Income Consumers................................................................................12-1 12.2.2 Institutions of Religious Worship ..................................................................12-2 12.2.3 Institutions That Serve Low-Income Populations..........................................12-3 12.2.4 Consumers of T12 Electronic Ballasts...........................................................12-4 12.3 LCC SUB-GROUP RESULTS..................................................................................12-5 12.3.1 Low-Income Consumers................................................................................12-5 12.3.2 Institutions of Religious Worship ..................................................................12-13 12.3.2.1 Product class: 4-foot MBP ≤ 4,500K...............................................12-13 12.3.2.2 Product class: 4-foot T5 mi niature bipin standard output ≤ 4,500K12-20 12.3.2.3 Product class: 8-foot single pin slimline ≤ 4,500K..........................12-22 12.3.2.4 Incandescent reflector lamps...........................................................12-27 12.3.3 Institutions That Serve Low-Income Populations..........................................12-31 12.3.3.1 Product class: 4-foot MBP ≤ 4,500K...............................................12-31 12.3.3.2 Product class: 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO ≤ 4,500K ...............................12-38 12.3.3.3 Product class: 8-foot SP slimline ≤ 4,500K.....................................12-40 12.3.3.4 Incandescent reflector lamps...........................................................12-45 12.3.4 Consumers of T12 Electronic Ballasts...........................................................12-49 12.3.4.1 Product class: 4-foot MBP ≤ 4,500K...............................................12-49 12.3.4.2 Product class: 8-foot SP slimline ≤ 4,500K.....................................12-54 12.3.4.3 Product class: 8-foot r ecessed double-contact high output ≤ 4,500K ..............................................................................................12-57REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .12-60

CHAPTER 13. MANUFACTUR ER IMPACT ANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................13-1 13.2 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................13-1 13.2.1 Phase I: Industry Profile.................................................................................13-1 13.2.2 Phase II: Industry Cash-Flow An alysis and Interview Guide........................13-2 13.2.2.1 Industry Cash-Flow Analysis...........................................................13-2 13.2.2.2 Interview Guide ...............................................................................13-2 13.2.3 Phase III: Sub-Group Analysis ......................................................................13-3 13.2.3.1 Manufacturer Interviews..................................................................13-3 13.2.3.2 Revised Industry Cash-Flow Analysis.............................................13-4 13.2.3.3 Manufacturer Sub-Group Analysis..................................................13-4 13.2.3.4 Small-Business Manufacturer Subgroup .........................................13-4 13.2.3.5 Manufacturing Capacity Impact ......................................................13-5 13.2.3.6 Employment Impact.........................................................................13-5 13.2.3.7 Cumulative Regulatory Burden .......................................................13-5 13.3 MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS KEY ISSUES......................................13-5 13.3.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ..............................................................13-6 13.3.1.1 Rare Earth Phosphor Availability and Price ....................................13-6 13.3.1.2 Reduction in Product Portfolio ........................................................13-6 13.3.1.3 Profit Margin Impact........................................................................13-6 13.3.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................................13-6 13.3.2.1 Product Performance Issues.............................................................13-6 13.3.2.2 Xenon Gas Availability and Price....................................................13-7 13.3.2.3 Elimination of Product Types in the Manufacturers’ Product Portfolio .........................................................................................................13-7 13.3.2.4 Elimination of Small Diameter Lamps ............................................13-7 13.3.2.5 Competition......................................................................................13-7 13.3.2.6 Market Erosion.................................................................................13-8 13.4 GRIM INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS....................................................................13-8 13.4.1 Overview of the GRIM ..................................................................................13-8 13.4.2 Sources GRIM Inputs ....................................................................................13-9 13.4.2.1 Corporate Annual Reports ...............................................................13-9 13.4.2.2 Standard and Poor Credit Ratings....................................................13-10 13.4.2.3 Shipment Model...............................................................................13-10 13.4.2.4 Product Price Determination............................................................13-10 13.4.2.5 Manufacturer Interviews..................................................................13-10 13.4.3 Financial Parameters......................................................................................13-11 13.4.4 Corporate Discount Rate................................................................................13-11 13.4.5 Trial Standard Levels.....................................................................................13-14 13.4.6 NIA Shipments Forecast................................................................................13-14 13.4.6.1 GSFL Base-Case Shipment Scenarios.............................................13-15 13.4.6.2 IRL Base-Case Shipment Scenarios ................................................13-1513.4.6.3 GSFL Standards Shipment Scenarios ..............................................13-16 13.4.6.4 IRL Standards Shipment Scenarios .................................................13-16 13.4.7 Production Costs ............................................................................................13-16 13.4.8 Conversion Costs ...........................................................................................13-19 13.4.8.1 Capital Conversion Expenses ..........................................................13-20 13.4.8.2 Product Conversion Expenses..........................................................13-22 13.4.9 Markups .........................................................................................................13-23 13.4.9.1 Flat Markup......................................................................................13-23 13.4.9.2 Four-Tier Markup ............................................................................13-24 13.5 GSFL INDUSTRY FINANCIAL IMPACTS............................................................13-28 13.5.1 Impacts on Industry Net Present Value .........................................................13-28 13.5.2 Impacts on GSFL Annual Cash Flow ............................................................13-33 13.6 IRL INDUSTRY FINANCIAL IMPACTS...............................................................13-42 13.6.1 Impacts on Industry Net Present Value .........................................................13-43 13.6.2 Impacts on Annual Cash Flow.......................................................................13-45 13.7 OTHER IMPACTS....................................................................................................13-51 13.7.1 Employm ent...................................................................................................13-51 13.7.1.1 GSFL Employment ..........................................................................13-51 13.7.1.2 IRL Employment .............................................................................13-52 13.7.2 Manufacturing Capacity.................................................................................13-61 13.7.3 Cumulative Regulatory Burden .....................................................................13-62 13.7.3.1 Federal DOE Regulations on Other Products Produced by the GSFL and IRL Manufacturers .......................................................................13-62 13.7.3.2 EISA 2007 Requirements ................................................................13-64 13.7.3.3 Restriction of Hazardous Substances Directive...............................13-65 13.7.3.4 Reporting Requirements ..................................................................13-65 13.7.4 Impacts on Small-Business Subgroup ...........................................................13-66 13.8 CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................................13-66 13.8.1 GSFL..............................................................................................................13-66 13.8.2 IRL .................................................................................................................13-69 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .13-72

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................14-1 14.2 ASSUMPTIONS........................................................................................................14-1 14.3 METHOD ..................................................................................................................14 -2 14.4 RESULTS ..................................................................................................................1 4-3 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .14-21

CHAPTER 15. NET NATIONAL EM PLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

15.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................15-1 15.2 METHOD ..................................................................................................................15 -115.3 RESULTS ..................................................................................................................1 5-2 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .15-6

CHAPTER 16. ENVIRO NMENTAL ASSESSMENT

16.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................16-1 16.2 AIR EMISSIONS ANALYSIS..................................................................................16-1 16.2.1 Air Emissions Descriptions............................................................................16-1 16.2.2 Air Quality Regulation...................................................................................16-3 16.2.3 Global Climate Change..................................................................................16-4 16.2.4 Analytical Methods for Air Emissions ..........................................................16-8 16.2.5 Effects on Power Plant Emissions .................................................................16-9 16.2.6 Effects on Upstream Fuel-Cycle Emissions ..................................................16-15 16.2.7 Economic Value of Emission Reductions......................................................16-15 16.3 WETLAND, ENDANGERED AND THREATENED SPECIES, AND CULTURAL RESOURCES ......................................................................................16-22 16.4 SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS................................................................................16-22 16.5 ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE IMPACTS..............................................................16-22 16.6 NOISE AND AESTHETICS .....................................................................................16-23 16.7 SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS...................................................16-23 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .16-25

CHAPTER 17. REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS

17.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................17-1 17.2 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................17-1 17.2.1 Modeling Method...........................................................................................17-1 17.2.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ...............................................17-2 17.2.1.1.1 Scenarios Analyzed..........................................................17-2 17.2.1.1.2 Market Share Matrices.....................................................17-3 17.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps........................................................17-3 17.2.1.2.1 Scenario............................................................................17-3 17.2.1.2.2 Market Share Matrices.....................................................17-3 17.2.2 Policy Assumptions .......................................................................................17-4 17.2.3 Interaction of Non-Re gulatory Alternatives ..................................................17-4 17.3 NON-REGULATORY ALTERNATIVES ...............................................................17-5 17.3.1 No New Regulatory Action ...........................................................................17-5 17.3.2 Consumer Rebates .........................................................................................17-5 17.3.3 Consumer Tax Credits ...................................................................................17-8 17.3.4 Manufacturer Tax Credits..............................................................................17-9 17.3.5 Voluntary Energy-Efficiency Programs ........................................................17-9 17.3.6 Early Replacement.........................................................................................17-10 17.3.7 Bulk Government Purchases..........................................................................17-10 17.4 RESULTS SUMMARY FOR NON-RE GULATORY ALTERNATIVES...............17-1117.4.1 No New Regulatory Action ...........................................................................17-12 17.4.2 Consumer Rebates .........................................................................................17-12 17.4.3 Consumer Tax Credits ...................................................................................17-12 17.4.4 Manufacturer Tax Credits..............................................................................17-12 17.4.5 Voluntary Energy-Efficiency Programs ........................................................17-13 17.4.6 Bulk Government Purchases..........................................................................17-13 17.4.7 Energy Conservation Standards.....................................................................17-13 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .17-14

APPENDIX AA. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

APPENDIX 3A. LIGHTING DEFINITION S IN THE UNITED STATES CODE AND CODE OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS

3A.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................3A-1 3A.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps .............................................................3A-1 3A.1.1.1 United States Code Definitions......................................................3A-1 3A.1.1.2 Code of Federal Regulations Definitions in 10 CFR 430.2 ...........3A-2 3A.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps......................................................................3A-4 3A.1.2.1 United States Code Definitions......................................................3A-4 3A.1.2.2 Code of Federal Regulations Definitions in 10 CFR 430.2 ...........3A-7 3A.1.3 All Covered Lamps .......................................................................................3A-8

APPENDIX 3B. XENON AVAILABILITY AND PRICING

3B.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................3B-1 3B.2 SUPPLY.................................................................................................................... .3B-1 3B.2.1 Production Process ........................................................................................3B-1 3B.2.2 Key Players ...................................................................................................3B-1 3B.2.2.1 Praxair ............................................................................................3B-1 3B.2.2.2 Air Liquide .....................................................................................3B-2 3B.2.2.3 Linde...............................................................................................3B-2 3B.2.2.4 Iceblick...........................................................................................3B-2 3B.3 APPLICATIONS .......................................................................................................3B-2 3B.3.1 Lighting Industry...........................................................................................3B-2 3B.3.2 Medical Applications ....................................................................................3B-2 3B.3.3 Space Industry...............................................................................................3B-3 3B.3.4 Semiconductor Industry ................................................................................3B-3 3B.4 PRICE ..................................................................................................................... ...3B-3 3B.4.5 LCC Analysis ................................................................................................3B-4 3B.5 CONCLUSION..........................................................................................................3B-5 3B.5.6 Supply ...........................................................................................................3B-5 3B.5.7 Demand .........................................................................................................3B-53B.5.8 Price...............................................................................................................3B-5 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................3B-7

APPENDIX 3C. RARE EARTH PHOSPHOR AVAILABILITY AND PRICING

3C.1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE .........................................................................3C-1 3C.2 APPLICATIONS .......................................................................................................3C-1 3C.3 RARE EARTH MARKET.........................................................................................3C-2 3C.3.1 Market Size ...................................................................................................3C-2 3C.3.2 Supply ...........................................................................................................3C-3 3C.3.3 Long-Term Supply ........................................................................................3C-3 3C.3.4 Demand .........................................................................................................3C-4 3C.3.5 Pricing ...........................................................................................................3C-5 3C.4 PHOSPHOR SUPPLY IMPACTS ............................................................................3C-5 3C.5 PHOSPHOR PRICE IMPACTS................................................................................3C-6 3C.6 CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................................3C-7 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................3C-9

APPENDIX 5A. ENGINEERING RESULTS US ED IN THE SHIPMENTS, NATIONAL IMPACTS, AND LIFE-CYCLE CO ST SUBGROUP ANALYSES

5A.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................5A-1 5A.2 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT LAMPS....................................................5A-1 5A.2.1 Systems Used in the Shipments Analysis and NIA ......................................5A-1 5A.2.1.1 4-foot Medium Bipin General Service Fluorescent Lamps ...........5A-2 5A.2.1.2 8-foot Single Pin Slimline Gene ral Service Fluorescent Lamps....5A-6 5A.2.1.3 8-foot Recessed Double Cont act High Output General Service Fluorescent Lamps.........................................................................................5A-8 5A.2.1.4 4-foot T5 Miniature Bipin St andard Output General Service Fluorescent Lamps.........................................................................................5A-10 5A.2.1.5 4-foot T5 Miniature Bipi n High Output General Service Fluorescent Lamps.........................................................................................5A-11 5A.2.2 Systems Used by Consumers of T12 Electronic Ballasts .............................5A-12 5A.2.2.1 4-foot Medium Bipin Genera l Service Fluorescent Lamps ...........5A-12 5A.2.2.2 8-foot Single Pin Slimline Gene ral Service Fluorescent Lamps....5A-14 5A.2.2.3 8-foot Recessed Double Cont act High Output General Service Fluorescent Lamps.........................................................................................5A-15 5A.3 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS...............................................................5A-16

APPENDIX 5B. T5 HALOPHOSPHOR MINIATURE BIPIN BASELINE LAMPS

5B.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................5B-1 5B.2 HALOPHOSPHOR T5 MARKET ............................................................................5B-15B.3 LINEAR GENERAL SERVICE FL UORESCENT LAMP OVERVIEW................5B-2 5B.4 MODEL FORMULATION, INPUTS, AND ANALYTICAL RESULTS ...............5B-3 5B.4.1 28W 4-foot T5 Miniature Bipin (MiniBP) SO Halophosphor Baseline .......5B-3 5B.4.2 54W 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO Halophosphor Baseline....................................5B-5 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................5B-6

APPENDIX 5C. MODIFIED-SPECTRUM INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS

5C.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................5C-1 5C.2 BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................5C-1 5C.2.1 Spectral Power Distribution and Co mmonly Used Color Properties............5C-1 5C.2.2 Methods of Modifying Spectral Power Distributions ...................................5C-4 5C.3 APPLICATION OF “MODIFIED-SPECTRUM” DEFINITION TO IRL ...............5C-4 5C.3.1 Color Requirements.......................................................................................5C-5 5C.3.2 Black Body Locus Requirements..................................................................5C-5 5C.3.3 MacAdam Step Requirements.......................................................................5C-6 5C.4 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................5C-7 5C.5 ANALYTICAL RESULTS .......................................................................................5C-10 5C.6 SELECTION OF FINAL SCALING FACTOR........................................................5C-12 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................5C-13

APPENDIX 5D. ADVANCED IR COATINGS

5D.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................5D-1 5D.2 BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................5D-1 5D.2.1 HIR Technology............................................................................................5D-1 5D.2.2 Silverized reflector coating ...........................................................................5D-2 5D.2.3 Alternative method........................................................................................5D-2 5D.3 METHOD ..................................................................................................................5D -2 5D.3.1 Capsules ........................................................................................................5D-2 5D.3.2 Modifying voltage.........................................................................................5D-3 5D.3.3 Reflector........................................................................................................5D-3 5D.4 RESULTS ..................................................................................................................5 D-3 5D.4.1 ADLT Burners ..............................................................................................5D-3 5D.4.2 Reflector Losses............................................................................................5D-4 5D.4.2.1 Commercially Available Lamps ....................................................5D-4 5D.4.2.2 ADLT Burners ...............................................................................5D-5 5D.5 LONG LIFE...............................................................................................................5D -5 5D.6 PRICE ..................................................................................................................... ...5D-6 5D.7 CONCLUSION..........................................................................................................5D-7APPENDIX 6A. ENERGY USE CHARACT ERIZATION RESULTS USED IN THE SHIPMENTS, NATIONAL IMPACTS, AND LIFE-CYCLE COST SUBGROUP ANALYSES

6A.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................6A-1 6A.2 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT LAMPS....................................................6A-2 6A.2.1 Systems Used in the Shipments Analysis and NIA ......................................6A-2 6A.2.1.1 4-foot Medium Bipin General Service Fluorescent Lamps ...........6A-2 6A.2.1.2 8-foot Single Pin Slimline Gene ral Service Fluorescent Lamps....6A-5 6A.2.1.3 8-foot Recessed Double Cont act High Output General Service Fluorescent Lamps.........................................................................................6A-6 6A.2.1.4 4-foot T5 Miniature Bipin St andard Output General Service Fluorescent Lamps.........................................................................................6A-6 6A.2.1.5 4-foot T5 Miniature Bipi n High Output General Service Fluorescent Lamps.........................................................................................6A-7 6A.2.2 Systems Used by Consumers of T12 Electronic Ballasts .............................6A-8 6A.2.2.1 4-foot Medium Bipin General Service Fluorescent Lamps ...........6A-8 6A.2.2.2 8-foot Single Pin Slimline Gene ral Service Fluorescent Lamps....6A-9 6A.2.2.3 8-foot Recessed Double Cont act High Output General Service Fluorescent Lamps.........................................................................................6A-10 6A.3 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS...............................................................6A-11

APPENDIX 7A. ADDITIONAL END-USER PRICE RESULTS

7A.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................7A-1 7A.2 FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS......................................................................7A-1 7A.3 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS...............................................................7A-2

APPENDIX 8A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LCC AND PBP SPREADSHEETS

8A.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................8A-1 8A.2 LCC AND PBP WORKBOOK .................................................................................8A-1 8A.3 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS..........................................................................................8A-2

APPENDIX 8B. SUPPLEMENTARY LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS

8B.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................8B-1 8B.2 INTRODUCTION TO UNCERTA INTY AND VARIABILITY .............................8B-1 8B.3 UNCERTAINTY .......................................................................................................8B-2 8B.4 VARIABILITY..........................................................................................................8B-2 8B.5 APPROACHES TO UNCERTAI NTY AND VARIABILITY .................................8B-2 8B.6 PROBABILITY ANALY SIS AND THE USE OF CRYSTAL BALL.....................8B-38B.7 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT RESULTS................................................8B-4 8B.7.1 Monte Carlo Results......................................................................................8B-4 8B.7.1.1 Product Class: 4-foot medium bipin ≤ 4,500K ..............................8B-4 8B.7.1.2 Product Class: 4-foot T5 miniature bipin high output ≤ 4,500K ...8B-13 8B.7.1.3 Product Class: 4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output ≤ 4,500K .............................................................................................8B-14 8B.7.1.4 Product Class: 8-foot single pin slimline ≤ 4,500K .......................8B-15 8B.7.1.5 Product Class: 8-foot recessed double contact high output ≤ 4,500K .............................................................................................8B-19 8B.7.2 Lamp and Ballast Price Scenario Results......................................................8B-24 8B.7.2.1 Product Class: 4-foot medium bipin ≤ 4,500K ..............................8B-24 8B.7.2.2 Product Class: 4-foot T5 miniature bipin high output ≤ 4,500K ...8B-48 8B.7.2.3 Product Class: 4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output ≤ 4,500K .............................................................................................8B-51 8B.7.2.4 Product Class: 8-foot single pin slimline ≤ 4,500K .......................8B-54 8B.7.2.5 Product Class: 8-foot recessed double contact HO ≤ 4,500K ........8B-67 8B.7.3 Electricity Price Trend Case Results.............................................................8B-80 8B.7.3.1 Product Class: 4-foot medium bipin ≤ 4,500K ..............................8B-80 8B.7.3.2 Product Class: 4-foot T5 miniature bipin high output ≤ 4,500K ...8B-97 8B.7.3.3 Product Class: 4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output ≤ 4,500K .............................................................................................8B-100 8B.7.3.4 Product Class: 8-foot single pin slimline ≤ 4,500K .......................8B-103 8B.7.3.5 Product Class: 8-foot recessed double contact HO ≤ 4,500K ........8B-112 8B.8 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR RESULTS...........................................................8B-121 8B.8.1 Monte Carlo Results......................................................................................8B-121 8B.8.2 Lamp Price Scenario Results.........................................................................8B-127 8B.8.3 Operating Hour Scenario Results..................................................................8B-140 8B.8.4 Electricity Price Trend Case Results.............................................................8B-146 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................8B-159

APPENDIX 8C. RESIDENTIAL DISCOUNT RATE DISTRIBUTIONS

8C.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................8C-1 8C.2 DISTRIBUTION OF REAL INTERE ST RATES FOR CONSUMER DEBT CLASSES ..................................................................................................................8C-1 8C.3 DISTRIBUTION OF REAL INTEREST RATES FOR FINANCIAL ASSETS......8C-2

APPENDIX 10A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCE NARIO FOR THE SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................10A-1 10A.2 STANDARDS-CASE MARKET-SHARE MATRICES ..........................................10A-1

APPENDIX 10B. MARKET SEGMENT-BASED LIGHTING EXPERTISE ANALYSIS10B.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................10B-1 10B.2 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................10B-2 10B.3 MARKET ACTOR TAXONOMY............................................................................10B-2 10B.3.1 COMMERCIAL VERSUS RE SIDENTIAL SECTORS............................10B-3 10B.3.2 LARGE VERSUS SMALL COMMERCIAL SUBSECTORS ..................10B-3 10B.4 THE MARKET SEGMENTS – COMMERCIAL SECTOR ....................................10B-3 10B.4.1 RENOVATION AN D REMODELING......................................................10B-4 10B.4.2 NEW CONSTRUCTION............................................................................10B-6 10B.4.3 RETROFITS................................................................................................10B-7 10B.4.4 BALLAST FAILURE.................................................................................10B-9 10B.4.5 FIXTURE REPLACEMENTS....................................................................10B-10 10B.4.6 CONCLUSION ...........................................................................................10B-10 10B.5 THE MARKET SEGMENTS – RESIDENTIAL SECTOR .....................................10B-10 10B.5.1 RENOVATION AN D REMODELING......................................................10B-11 10B.5.2 NEW CONSTRUCTION............................................................................10B-12 10B.5.3 RETROFIT, BALLAST FAILURE, AND FIXTURE REPLACEMENTS ....................................................................................................10B-13 10B.5.4 CONCLUSION ...........................................................................................10B-14 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................10B-15

APPENDIX 10C. PENETRATION OF EMERGING AND EXISTING TECHNOLOGIES

10C.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................10C-1 10C.2 PRICE AND PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING AND EXISTING TECHNOLOGIES .....................................................................................................10C-1 10C.2.1 LED .............................................................................................................10C-1 10C.2.2 CMH............................................................................................................10C-3 10C.2.3 R-CFL..........................................................................................................10C-3

APPENDIX 11A. USER INSTRUCT IONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA SPREADSHEETS

11A.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................11A-1 11A.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................11A-1 11A.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................11A-8 11A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS.......................................................................................11A-11 11A.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................11A-11 11A.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................11A-12

APPENDIX 11B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCE NARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS11B.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................11B-1 11B.2 RESULTS .................................................................................................................. 11B-1 11B.2.1 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS.............................................................11B-1 11B.2.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps.............................................11B-1 11B.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps .....................................................11B-10 11B.2.2 NET PRESENT VALUE ............................................................................11B-13 11B.2.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps.............................................11B-13 11B.2.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps .....................................................11B-22

APPENDIX 13A. MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS INTERVIEW GUIDE AND GOVERNMENT REGULATORY IMPACT MODEL (GRIM)

13A.1 MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANA LYSIS INTERVIEW GUIDE.......................13A-1 13A.1.1 Manufacturer impact anal ysis interview guide .........................................13A-1 13A.1.2 General Service Fluorescent and Incandescent Reflector Lamps Energy Conservation Standards Rulema king Manufacturer Impact An alysis Interview Guide for Small Businesses.....................................................................................................13A-11 13A.2 GOVERNMENT REGULATO RY IMPACT MODEL ..........................................13A-12 13A.2.1 Introduction and Purpose ..........................................................................13A-12 13A.2.2 Model Description.....................................................................................13A-12 13A.2.3 Detailed Cash Flow Example....................................................................13A-15

APPENDIX 14A. INTERPOLATION OF UTILITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESULTS FROM NEMS-BT OUTPUT