MARKET SHARE CALCULATIONS FOR EARLY REPLACEMENTDecision ParametersEarly Replmnt Market ShareEvolution of Age-dependent Purchase Probabilities for Early Retirement (Updates)YearProduct PriceOperating Savings IncomePrice/IncomeInterest CAC/HPNone Total1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Parameters for Market Share Calculations for Replacement Units1951 $10,425.34-$233.04 $23,911 44.90% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001952 $9,932.80-$229.89 $25,213 40.61% 3.25 0.00 1.00 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Elec1953 $9,464.21-$228.60 $25,808 37.85% 3.25 0.42 0.58 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Equip. Price in 1998 (98$)$2,2361954 $9,018.49-$224.42 $25,320 36.80% 3.25 0.48 0.52 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001955 $8,594.61-$225.74 $27,130 32.79% 3.25 0.54 0.46 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Oper. Cost in 1998 (98$)$1971956 $8,191.60-$218.89 $28,573 29.69% 3.75 0.53 0.47 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001957 $7,808.58-$208.11 $28,209 28.66% 4.00 0.51 0.49 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001958 $7,444.67-$201.01 $27,990 27.55% 3.50 0.54 0.46 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001959 $7,099.09-$198.68 $29,652 24.83% 4.50 0.58 0.42 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001960 $6,771.08-$192.15 $30,192 23.28% 5.00 0.56 0.44 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001961 $6,459.95-$186.68 $31,339 21.41% 4.50 0.57 0.43 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00INITIAL MARKET SHARE1962 $6,165.04-$179.69 $31,698 20.20% 4.50 0.58 0.42 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00CAC/HP1963 $5,885.77-$173.16 $32,403 18.88% 4.50 0.59 0.41 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001964 $5,621.59-$164.99 $33,446 17.47% 4.50 0.59 0.41 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Replacement (1996)0.291965 $5,372.00 -$156.55 $34,826 16.02% 4.50 0.59 0.41 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001966 $5,136.56 -$148.10 $35,993 14.82% 5.50 0.59 0.41 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001967 $4,914.88 -$139.84 $35,878 14.22% 5.50 0.59 0.41 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00COEFFICIENTbPrice Coefficient1968 $4,663.15-$131.45 $37,861 12.78% 6.50 0.59 0.41 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00CAC/HP1969 $4,525.68-$122.28 $39,494 11.87% 7.50 0.57 0.43 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0001970 $4,413.86-$113.73 $39,430 11.58% 8.00 0.56 0.44 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001971 $4,359.34-$112.59 $39,473 11.42% 5.50 0.54 0.46 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00COEFFICIENTcSavings Coefficient1972 $4,278.06-$111.39 $41,414 10.69% 5.00 0.54 0.46 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01CAC/HP1973 $4,092.59-$105.18 $42,125 10.05% 7.25 0.53 0.47 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0101974 $3,963.71-$107.90 $40,401 10.17% 11.50 0.55 0.45 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.011975 $4,142.55-$105.21 $39,985 10.71% 7.25 0.57 0.43 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.011976 $4,174.66-$100.83 $40,891 10.54% 7.00 0.55 0.45 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.011977 $4,052.05-$95.20 $41,658 10.03% 6.75 0.52 0.48 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.011978 $3,948.25-$94.64 $42,951 9.49% 8.50 0.49 0.51 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.011979 $3,828.78-$86.43 $44,134 8.94% 11.75 0.46 0.54 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.011980 $3,657.03-$84.20 $42,728 8.82% 14.00 0.43 0.57 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.011981 $3,530.05-$82.69 $42,146 8.64% 20.50 0.39 0.61 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.011982 $3,448.56-$80.93 $41,146 8.64% 16.50 0.35 0.65 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.011983 $3,502.97-$77.03 $41,532 8.68% 10.50 0.32 0.68 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01COEFFICIENTfIncome Coefficient1984 $3,391.03-$74.14 $42,965 8.12% 12.50 0.31 0.69 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01CAC/HP1985 $3,316.10-$70.86 $43,887 7.77% 10.00 0.31 0.69 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.0201986 $3,277.83-$67.10 $45,459 7.41% 8.50 0.32 0.68 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.021987 $3,139.32-$60.41 $46,208 6.97% 8.25 0.33 0.67 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02COEFFICIENTgPrice/Income Coefficient1988 $3,116.02-$55.04 $47,017 6.78% 9.00 0.33 0.67 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02CAC/HP1989 $3,065.53-$50.46 $47,909 6.54% 11.50 0.32 0.68 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02-341990 $3,019.68-$46.16 $46,579 6.62% 10.00 0.32 0.68 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.021991 $2,895.84-$42.24 $45,393 6.50% 8.50 0.32 0.68 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02COEFFICIENThInterest Coefficient1992 $2,827.47$0.00$45,128 6.27% 6.50 0.32 0.68 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03CAC/HP1993 $2,730.73$0.00$46,262 5.90% 6.00 0.32 0.68 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.0301994 $2,684.07$0.00$47,163 5.69% 7.25 0.31 0.69 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.031995 $2,665.77$0.00$47,755 5.58% 9.00 0.30 0.70 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03COEFFICIENTaCONSTANT/INTERCEPT TERM - New Units1996 $2,661.66$0.00$48,831 5.45% 8.25 0.30 0.70 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03CAC/HP1997 $2,625.85$0.00$50,567 5.19% 8.50 0.31 0.69 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.040.871998 $2,650.33$0.00$51,688 5.13% 8.50 0.32 0.68 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.041999 $2,650.33$0.00$52,079 5.09% 7.75 0.33 0.67 1.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.042000 $2,650.33$0.00$52,309 5.07% 8.03 0.34 0.66 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.042001 $2,650.33$0.00$52,574 5.04% 8.03 0.34 0.66 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.042002 $2,650.33$0.00$52,579 5.04% 8.03 0.34 0.66 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.042003 $2,650.33$0.00$53,051 5.00% 8.03 0.35 0.65 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.042004 $2,650.33$0.00$53,383 4.96% 8.03 0.35 0.65 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.042005 $2,650.33$0.00$53,933 4.91% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.042006 $2,650.33$0.00$54,299 4.88% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.042007 $2,650.33$0.00$54,840 4.83% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.042008 $2,650.33$0.00$55,432 4.78% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.042009 $2,650.33$0.00$56,050 4.73% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.042010 $2,650.33$0.00$57,060 4.64% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.042011 $2,650.33$0.00$57,373 4.62% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.042012 $2,650.33$0.00$58,094 4.56% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.052013 $2,650.33$0.00$58,682 4.52% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.052014 $2,650.33$0.00$59,438 4.46% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.052015 $2,650.33$0.00$60,170 4.40% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.052016 $2,650.33$0.00$61,078 4.34% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.052017 $2,650.33$0.00$61,799 4.29% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.052018 $2,650.33$0.00$62,860 4.22% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.052019 $2,650.33$0.00$63,725 4.16% 8.03 0.36 0.64 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.052020 $0.00$0.00$64,643 0.00% 8.03 0.69 0.31 1.000.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.182021 $0.00$0.00$65,455 0.00% 8.03 0.37 0.63 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.062022 $0.00$0.00$66,277 0.00% 8.03 0.38 0.62 1.000.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.062023 $2,650.33$0.00$67,109 3.95% 8.03 0.39 0.61 1.000.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.062024 $2,650.33$0.00$67,952 3.90% 8.03 0.39 0.61 1.000.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.062025 $2,650.33$0.00$68,805 3.85% 8.03 0.40 0.60 1.000.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.062026 $2,650.33$0.00$69,669 3.80% 8.03 0.40 0.60 1.000.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.062027 $2,650.33$0.00$70,544 3.76% 8.03 0.41 0.59 1.000.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.062028 $2,650.33$0.00$71,430 3.71% 8.03 0.41 0.59 1.000.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.062029 $2,650.33$0.00$72,327 3.66% 8.03 0.00 1.00 1.002030 $2,650.33$0.00$73,235 3.62% 8.03 0.00 1.00 1.00Relative Probability of Early Replacement24 25 26 27 28 29 300.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Probability Functions0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00CAC/HP Age1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 300.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Update Probability (Relative Probability of a Discretionary Update of a CAC/HP)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.050.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Constants0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Annual update constant:0.050.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Below, we calculate the evolution of these probability functions over time0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Weuse a standard logit model with the operating cost, price, and income coefficients0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00calculated in cells g22, g29, and g36. Below we calculate the constant in the logit equation for each CAC/HP age category0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Constants-4.67 -3.97 -3.57 -3.28 -3.05 -2.87 -2.71 -2.58 -2.46 -2.35 -2.25 -2.17 -2.08 -2.01 -1.94 -1.87 -1.81 -1.75 -1.69 -1.64 -1.59 -1.54 -1.50 -1.45 -1.41 -1.37 -1.33 -1.29 -1.25 -1.220.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Note: We use a relative probability that is a linear function of the CAC/HP age for0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01the likelihood of a discretionary purchase (older AC products are more likely to be replaced).0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.010.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.020.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.020.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.020.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.020.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.020.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.020.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.030.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.030.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.030.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.030.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.030.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.030.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.040.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.040.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.040.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.040.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.050.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.050.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.060.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.060.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.060.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.060.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.060.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.060.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.060.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.060.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.060.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.070.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.070.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.230.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.070.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.070.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.070.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.080.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.080.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.080.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.080.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08