# OAR Box 1112 Prepped byRyan Dugan



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Number: 

# 32 ) ll-C- 3 Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 2

Printed 4/16/20089:12:07AM Sheet 32 of 97 P. 1P. 2

f *£ \ UNITE D STATE S ENVIRONMENTA LPROTECTIO N AGENC Y I -\-\(2-

/ Offic e o fAi rQualit yPlannin g an d Standard s

" V PBO^ ' / Research Triangl e Park , Nort h Carolin a 2771 1 Octobe r9 , 198 4 Dr . Anit a S . Curra n Commissione r Departmen to fHealt h '___

_Rrrnv^ D " ~ 11 2 Eas t Pos t Roa dENVIRONMENTA LPROTECTION Whit e Plains , Ne

wYor k 1060 1 AGENC Y Dea rDr . Curran : OC T 1 6 1Q& 4 Sinc e ou rdiscussion s las t spring , a numbe ro fth e initiati v®NTRA L DOCKET undertake n i n th e lea d ris k assessmen tare a hav e com e t o fruition . A§E£TJO N result , I a

m please d t o shar e wit h yo u th e followin g documents : 1 ) Protoco l fo rEncodin g Probabilit yJudgment s Abou tDose-Respons e Curve s fo rLead-Induce d Hemoglobi n Decrement s an d Discussin g Possibl e Advers e Effect s o fElevate d EP ; 2 ) Memorandu m date d Septembe r25 , 198 4 fro m Thoma s S . Wallste n t o Joh n Haines . Developmen to fHemoglobi n Protoco l an d Selectio n o fConsultants ; 3 ) Exper tSelectio n Protocol ; an d 4 ) Estimatin g th e Risk s o fLead-Induce d Hemoglobi n Decrement s Unde r Condition s o fUncertainty : AMethodology , Pilo tJudgments , an d Exampl e Calculations . Th e hemoglobi n protoco l ha s undergon e additiona l refinemen ti n respons e t o consultatio n wit h variou s expert s sinc e las tspring . I tha s als o bee n expande d t o provid e fo rth e elicitatio n o fjudgment s o n th e healt h significanc e o felevate d erythrocyt e protoporphyri n (EP) . To m Wallsten' s memorandu m o f Septembe r2 5 summarize s th e proces s bywhic h th e protoco l was developed . Th e Exper tSelectio n Protoco l was prepare d i n orde rt o formaliz e th e proces s b ywhic h th e expert s t o b e encode d ar e selected . Th e protoco l place s responsibilit yfo rth e selectio n o fexpert s i n th e hand s o fth e OAQP S staff . I ti s recognize d tha t thi s depart s fro m th e positio n expresse d a t las t year' s Ris k Subcommitte e meeting . Afte rcarefu l consideration , however , w

e believ e tha tthi s i s th e mos tappropriat e cours e t o follow . Specifyin g ou rselectio n criteri a i n advanc e shoul d provid e th e publi can d th e Clea n Ai rScientifi cAdvisor yCommitte e a basi s upo n whic h t o judg e whethe rw

e hav e carrie d ou t ou rresponsibilit yi n a n objectiv e an d balance d manner .P. 3 Th e pilo t stud ysuggeste d durin g ou rdiscussion s las t sprin g prove d t o be an extremel yvaluabl e learnin g too l i n term s o frefinin g th e actua l encodin g procedure s as wel l a

s developin g appropriat e method s t o analyz e an d summarize th e elicite d judgments . Aful l descriptio n o fth e exercis e i s provide d i n th e enclose d report . Havin g complete d thes e initiatives , w e believ e tha tw

e ar e no wi n a positio n t o begi n encodin g o n lead-induce d hemoglobi n decrement s an d th e functiona l significanc e o felevate d E P levels . Ou rplan s cal l fo ru s t o selec tfiv e experts , base d o n th e exper t selectio n protocol , an d t o begi n t o schedul e encodin g session s i n November . Wor k i s continuin g o n developin g a protoco l fo rencodin g o n th e effect s o flea d o n I.Q . W

e wil l forwar d a copyas soo n as i t i s finished . Wit h respec t t o th e exposure analysis , w e have spen t th e pas t severa l month s rethinkin g th e approac h w e outline d las t fall . W e have develope d a preliminar yframewor k t o estimat e exposure , uptak e an d bloo d lea d level s unde ralternativ e lea d NAAQS. Thi s i s currentl ybein g reviewe d b yappropriat e expert s bot h withi n an d outsid e th e Agency . A s inpu t t o thi s process , w e hav e take n int o consideratio n th e suggestion s offere d b yKeeney , Sari n an d Winkle ri n thei rrepor t "Preliminar yComment s o n Lead Exposure " (cop yenclosed) . W e hav e als o take n th e ste p t o involv e Bo b Winkle rmor

e directl yi n th e exposur e analyses . Thi s shoul d wor k ou t wel l sinc e Bo

b has recentl ybegu n teachin g a t Duk

e University . Onc

e ou rrevise d approac h has solidified , w e wil l be please d t o shar e i t wit h you . Concernin g lea d uptake , w e hav e initiate d a contrac t wit h Dr . Theodore Knei p o fth e Ne

wYor k Universit yMedica l Center , Institut e o fEnvironmenta l Medicine . Unde rth e contract , Dr . Knei p an d hi s colleague s wil l develo p estimate s o f bloo d an d tissu e lea d level s i n childre n chronicall yexpose d t o lead . Thi s wor k expand s o n an d supplement s th e "baboo n study " tha t Dr . Lippman n referre d t o a t th e lea d ris k

meetin g a yea rago . Onc e completed , Dr . Kneip' s wor k shoul d enabl e u s t o predic t bloo d lea d level s unde rdifferen t exposur e level s fo rdifferen t stage s o fchildhoo d (0- 6 yrs) . W e anticipat e receivin g th e result s fro m thi s effor t late rthi s fall . B ycopyo fthi s letter , I a m forwardin g copie s o fth e enclose d report s t o Drs . Lippmann , Kotin , Morgan , an d North . I fyo u have anycomment s o r question s concernin g anyo fth e material s provided , pleas e le t m e know . You ma

y cal l m e o n 919-541-5531 . You rcontinuin g interes t i n thi s projec ti s greatl yappreciated . Sincerely , V . M Joh n H . Haine s Ambien t Standard s Branc h Enclosure s cc : Pau l Koti n Morto nLippmann M . Grange r Morga n D . Warne r Nort h