### CHAPTER 8. LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 8-1

8.1.1 General Approach for Life-Cycle Co st and Payback Period Analyses ...............8-1

8.1.2 Overview of LCC and PBP Inputs....................................................................... 8-3

8.2 LIFE-CYCLE COST INPUTS ........................................................................................ 8-6

8.2.1 Definition .............................................................................................................8-6

8.2.2 Total Installed Cost Inputs...................................................................................8-7

8.2.2.1 Installation Costs......................................................................................8-8

8.2.3 Operating Cost Inputs ........................................................................................ 8-10

8.2.3.1 Operating Hours..................................................................................... 8-11

8.2.3.2 Power Rating.......................................................................................... 8-12

8.2.3.3 Electricity Prices .................................................................................... 8-12

8.2.3.4 Electricity Price Trend ........................................................................... 8-13

8.2.4 Lifetime.............................................................................................................. 8-16

8.2.5 Replacement Cost .............................................................................................. 8-17

8.2.6 Disposal Cost ..................................................................................................... 8-18

8.2.7 Analysis Period ..................................................................................................8-18

8.2.8 Residential GSFL Analysis................................................................................8-19

8.2.9 Discount Rate..................................................................................................... 8-20

8.2.9.1 Residential Discount Rate......................................................................8-20

8.2.9.2 Commercial Discount Rate.................................................................... 8-24

8.2.10 Effective Date of Standard................................................................................. 8-27

8.2.11 Residual Value...................................................................................................8-28

8.3 PAYBACK PERIOD INPUTS...................................................................................... 8-28

8.3.1 Definition ...........................................................................................................8-28

8.3.2 Rebuttable Presumption Payback Period........................................................... 8-29

8.3.3 Inputs.................................................................................................................. 8-30

8.4 LAMP PURCHASING EVENTS ................................................................................. 8-30

8.5 LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYB ACK PERIOD RESULTS......................................8-34

8.5.1 Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps................................................ 8-35

8.5.1.1 Product Class: 4-foot medium bipin ≤ 4,500K ....................................... 8-36

8.5.1.2 Product Class: 4-foot T5 miniature bipin high output ≤ 4,500K ............8-56

8.5.1.3 Product Class: 4-foot T5 mini ature bipin standard output ≤ 4,500K...... 8-58

8.5.1.4 Product Class: 8-Foot single pin slimline ≤ 4,500K............................... 8-60

8.5.1.5 Product Class: 8-foot recessed double contact HO ≤ 4,500K.................8-69

8.5.2 Life-Cycle Cost Results for Incandescent Reflector Lamps.............................. 8-78

8.6 DETAILED RESULTS AND SE NSITIVITY RUNS................................................... 8-85

REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... .....8-86

LIST OF TABLES

8-i

### Table 8.1.1 Product Classes Analyzed in the LCC and PBP Analyses ..........................8-3

Table 8.1.2 Summary Information of Inputs for the Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses ............................................................................................................... 8-6

Table 8.2.1 Inputs for Total Installed Costs ................................................................ 8-7 Table 8.2.2 Relamping Times for General Se rvice Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps* ............................................................................................................. 8-9 Table 8.2.3 Relamping and Lamp-and-Balla st Labor Cost for General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps ................................................. 8-10

Table 8.2.4 Inputs for Operating Costs ..................................................................... 8-10 Table 8.2.5 Average Operating H ours by Sector and Lamp Type ................................8-11 Table 8.2.6 High Operating Hours for GSFL in the Residential Sector .......................8-12 Table 8.2.7 Electricity Pri ces by Census Division, 2008.............................................. 8-13 Table 8.2.8 Average Percentage Shares of Household Debt and Equity Types ...........8-21 Table 8.2.9 Average Nominal and Real Inte rest Rates for Hous ehold Debt Classes ...8-22 Table 8.2.10 Average Nominal and Real Inte rest Rates for Household Equity Types 8-23

Table 8.2.11 Shares and Interest or Return Rates Used for Household Debt and Equity Types .............................................................................................................................. 8 -23

Table 8.2.12 Variables Used to Estimate Company Discount Rates ............................8-25

Table 8.2.13 Real Discount Rate s by Lamp Ownership Category ...............................8-26 Table 8.2.14 Estimated Share of Lamp Purchases by Ownership Category in the

Commercial Sector ......................................................................................................... 8-27 Table 8.2.15 Lamp Ownership by Sector ..................................................................... 8-27 Table 8.2.16 Average Discount Rate by Sector ............................................................ 8-27 Table 8.4.1 Framework of Event-Type Scenarios for T12 Baseline Lamp Consumers 8-33 Table 8.4.2 Framework of Event-Type Scenarios for T8 Baseline Lamp Consumers . 8-34 Table 8.4.3 Framework of Event-Type Scenarios for T5 Baseline Lamp Consumers . 8-34

Table 8.5.1 LCC and PBP Results for a Thre e-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the Commercial Sector ................................................................. 8-38

Table 8.5.2 LCC and PBP Results for a Thre e-Lamp 4-Foot 34W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the Commercial Sector ................................................................. 8-42 Table 8.5.3 LCC and PBP Results for a 3-Lamp 4-foot 32W T8 Me dium Bipin System Operating in the Commercial Sector .............................................................................. 8-45 Table 8.5.4 Summary of the LCC Results fo r a Three-Lamp 4-Foot Medium Bipin System Operating in the Commercial Sector ................................................................. 8-46

Table 8.5.5 LCC and PBP Results for a Tw o-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the Residentia l Sector Using High Operating Hours ...................8-49

Table 8.5.6 LCC and PBP Results for a Tw o-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the Residential Sector Using Average Operating Hours ..............8-50 Table 8.5.7 LCC Savings Results at Various Remaining Fixt ure Lives for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium Bipin System Oper ating in the Residential Sector Using Average Operating Hours and Lamp Preservation Behavior ........................................ 8-52

Table 8.5.8 LCC and PBP Results for a Tw o-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the Resi dential Sector Using Averag e Operating Hours and Lamp

Preservation Behavior With Seven Years of Remaining Fixture Life at the Beginning of the Analysis Period ........................................................................................................ 8-53

8-ii8-iii 

### Table 8.5.9 Summary of the LCC Results fo r a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the Residen tial Sector Using High Operating Hours .........8-55 Table 8.5.10 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the Residentia l Sector Using Average Operating Hours ....8-55

Table 8.5.11 LCC and PBP Results for a Tw o-Lamp 4-Foot 54W T5 Miniature Bipin High Output System Operati ng in the Commercial Sector ............................................ 8-57 Table 8.5.12 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 54W T5 Miniature Bipin High Output System Oper ating in the Commercial Sector ..................................8-57

Table 8.5.13 LCC and PBP Results for a Tw o-Lamp 4-Foot 28W T5 Miniature Bipin Standard Output System Oper ating in the Commercial Sector ..................................... 8-59 Table 8.5.14 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 28W T5 Miniature Bipin Standard Output System Op erating in the Commercial Sector ............................8-59

Table 8.5.15 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot 75W T12 Single Pin Slimline System Operating in the Commercial Sector .................................................. 8-62

Table 8.5.16 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot 60W T12 Single Pin Slimline System Operating in the Commercial Sector .................................................. 8-64

Table 8.5.17 LCC and PBP Results for a Two- Lamp 8-Foot 59W T8 Single Pin Slimline System Operating in the Commercial Sector ................................................................. 8-67 Table 8.5.18 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline System Operating in the Commercial Sector ................................................................. 8-68

Table 8.5.19 LCC and PBP Results for a Tw o-Lamp 8-Foot 110W T12 Recessed Double Contact HO System Operati ng in the Indus trial Sector................................................. 8-71 Table 8.5.20 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot 95W T12 Recessed Double Contact HO System Operati ng in the Indus trial Sector................................................. 8-74 Table 8.5.21 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot Recessed DoubleContact HO System Operati ng in the Indus trial Sector................................................. 8-77 Table 8.5.22 LCC and PBP Results for a 90W PAR38 Lamp Operating in the

Commercial Sector ......................................................................................................... 8-79

Table 8.5.23 LCC and PBP Results for a 90W PAR38 Lamp Operating in the Residential

Sector ............................................................................................................................. 8-80 Table 8.5.24 LCC and PBP Results for a 75W PAR38 Lamp Operating in the

Commercial Sector ......................................................................................................... 8-81

Table 8.5.25 LCC and PBP Results for a 75W PAR38 Lamp Operating in the Residential

Sector ............................................................................................................................. 8-82 Table 8.5.26 LCC and PBP Results for a 50W PAR30 Lamp Operating in the

Commercial Sector ......................................................................................................... 8-83

Table 8.5.27 LCC and PBP Results for a 50W PAR30 Lamp Operating in the Residential

Sector ............................................................................................................................. 8-84

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 8.1.1 Flow Diagram of Inputs fo r the Determ ination of LCC and PBP ..............8-5 Figure 8.2.1 Residential Sector Electricity Price Trend ............................................... 8-14 Figure 8.2.2 Commercial Sector Electricity Price Trend .............................................. 8-15 Figure 8.2.3 Industrial Sector Electricity Price Trend .................................................. 8-16

### CHAPTER 8. LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSES

8.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the analysis the U. S. Departm ent of Energy (DOE) conducts to evaluate the economic impact s on individual consumers of possible energy conservation standards for general service fluorescent lamps (GSFL) and incandescent reflector lamps (IRL). New standards usually decrease operating costs a nd increase purchase costs for consumers. This chapter describes the three metrics used in this analysis to determine the impact of standards on

individual consumers:

Life-cycle cost (LCC) is the total (discounted ) consumer cost over the analysis period including purchase price, operating co sts (including energy expenditures), and

installation costs.

Payback period (PBP) is the number of years it takes a customer to recover the generally higher purchase price of a more energy-e fficient product through the operating cost savings of using the more energy-efficient produ ct. The PBP is calculated as the change in first cost divided by the change in operating costs in the first year.

Rebuttable payback period is a special case in which the PBP is calculated based on laboratory conditions, specifically DOE test procedure inputs. DOE calculates the aforementioned LCC and PBP using a range of inputs, which are designed to reflect

actual conditions.

Sections 8.2 and 8.3 discuss inputs to the LCC a nd PBP, respectively. Section 8.4 discusses the different purchasing events DOE analyzes, which affect consum er economics.

Section 8.5 presents the results for the LCC and PB P. Key variab les and calculations are presented for each metric. DOE performs the cal culations discussed here using a series of

Microsoft Excel ® 

### spreadsheets developed for this rule making. Stakeholders are invited to download and examine the spreadsheets, which are available at http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildin gs/appliance_standards/residential/incandescent_lam ps.html

. Appendix 8A presents details and instructions for using the spread sheets. Appendix 8B presents sensitivity results as well as results of the M onte Carlo model. Appendi x 8C presents detailed

sources for the residential-sector discount rate co mputation. Appendix 8D pr esents the impact of “hot shock” on the life-cycle cost sa vings of incandescent reflector lamps.

8.1.1 General Approach for Life-Cycle Co st and Payback Period Analyses

Recognizing that several input s to the LCC and PBP analysis are either variable or uncertain, D OE incorporates Monte Carlo simulati on and probability distri butions into its LCC and PBP model. Appendix 8B contains a detail ed set of results usi ng Monte Carlo simulation. DOE incorporates both Monte Ca rlo simulation and probability di stributions by using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets combined with Crystal Ball ® 

### , a commercially-available add-in program.

8-1

### The relationship between increasing total inst alled cost and increasing efficacy is the predominant influence on the LCC and PBP results. However, other factors related to the characteristics of the consumer using the produc ts also affect the results. Based on the geographic region, sector, and application in which a consumer uses the lamps, factors such as energy prices, sales tax, and energy usage can va ry. By using the Monte Carlo simulation and separate sensitivity runs, DOE accounts for this variability.

For the LCC and PBP analyses, DOE considers va riability in the discount rate. DOE also models variability in operating hours by sector , lamp type, and building applications. By developing samples by building type, DOE can perform the LCC and PBP calculations and account for the variability in operating hours, elect ricity price, and sale s tax among a variety of buildings. DOE uses the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), i 

### 2003 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey CBECS, ii 

### and 2002 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) iii 

### to develop samples by building type, as well as the U.S. Lighti ng Market Characterization: Volume I (LMC) iv 

### to develop the operating hour charact eristics by application in thos e buildings. The LCC and PBP spreadsheets present the results of the analysis as average values, relative to the baseline conditions. (Appendix 8B presents more information on the distri bution of results from the LCC and PBP analysis, including the average and medi an PBP values and the percentages of trials which result in positive or negative LCCs.)

In the LCC and PBP analyses, DOE considers multiple pathways to energy savings. Generally, when moving up in lamp efficacy consum ers choose whether to stay at the same rated lamp wattage and have more light output, or m ove to a lower wattage and have the same or roughly equivalent light output as the baseline lamp or la mp-and-ballast system. While consumers clearly would have ot her choices in addition to thos e presented in the LCC, DOE considers only energy-saving lamp designs and lamp-and-ballast system designs in the LCC. Other choices, such as substituting a lamp that is outside the scope of this rulemaking (e.g., exempted 65 watt bulged reflector (BR) IRL) or s ubstituting a lamp with a higher-efficacy lamp that does not save energy are addressed in Ch apter 10, the national imp act analysis (NIA).

For GSFL, DOE considers various scenarios that prompt consumers to buy a lamp or lamp-and-ballast system in the base case versus standards case. Specifically, the “event” that prompts the purchase of a new lamp (e.g., a lamp fa ilure or a ballast failure) will influence the cost-effectiveness of the consumer purchase decision. For example, depending on the efficacy level (EL), a consumer may or may not have to purchase a ne w ballast to install a moreefficacious lamp. Whether the consumer would have replaced the ballast absent standards affects the economics of the substitution. DOE, therefore, bases the LCC and PBP analyses around “lamp purchasing events.” For IRL, where no ballast is involved, DOE simply analyzes lamp failure or new construction/ renovation scenarios. Section 8.4 discusses the lamp purchasing events for GSFL in m ore detail. The LCC and PBP analyses spreadsheet reports results by purchasing event.

The time period used for the LCC and PBP analys es in this rulemaking is the service life of the longest-life baseli ne lamp, or a multiple thereof. By using this analysis period, LCC results are more easily compared and contrasted for different ELs. However, to account for any remaining lamp life at the end of the analysis period in a manner consistent with the Federal

8-2

### Energy Management Program’s Life-Cycle Costing Manual v 

### , DOE designates a discounted “residual value” for lamps or ballasts that have remaining value. For example, if a moreefficacious lamp expires before the end of the an alysis period, DOE assumes that the lamp is replaced during the analysis period and credits the unused lamp life of this replacement lamp

back as a residual value at the end of the analysis period.

DOE is conducting the LCC and PBP analys es on the baseline lamps from the representative product classes identified in Chapter 3. Table 8.1.1 shows the set of five representative GSFL product cla sses and the one representative IRL product class that DOE is evaluating in this analysis.

Table 8.1.1 Product Classes Analyzed in the LCC and PBP Analyses

General Service Fluorescent Lamps

4-Foot Medium Bipin, ≤ 4,500K

8-Foot Single Pin Slimline, ≤ 4,500K

8-Foot Recessed Double-Contact High-Output (HO), ≤ 4,500K

4-Foot T5 Miniature Bipin Standard Output (SO), ≤ 4,500K

4-Foot T5 Miniature Bipin High Output (HO), ≤ 4,500K

Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Standard-Spectrum, Voltage < 125V, Diameter > 2.5 Inches



### 8.1.2 Overview of LCC and PBP Inputs

As m entioned earlier, the LCC represents th e total consumer expense over the analysis period, including purchase expe nses, operating costs (including energy expenditures), and

installation costs. DOE discounts future operating costs to the tim e of purchase and sums them over the analysis period. Due to the large variance of lamp lif etimes, for this rulemaking, DOE bases the analysis period on th e longest-life baseline lamp w ithin a product class. The LCC

calculation credits back the residual value of a lamp, or lamp-and-ballast system, if it has any operating life remaining at the end of the analys is period. The residual value is the discounted total installed cost of a lamp, or lamp-and-balla st system, multiplied by the percentage of the remaining life past the analysis period. Th e PBP represents the num ber of years it takes customers to recover the purch ase price of more-energy-effi cient equipment through lower operating costs. The PBP is calculated as the ch ange in first cost divided by the change in operating costs in the first year.

DOE categorizes inputs to the LCC and PB P analysis as follows: (1) inputs for establishing the purchase expense, otherwise known as the total in stalled cost; and (2) inputs for calculating the expenses incurred during the operation of the lamp, otherwise known as the operating cost. In addition, inputs to the LCC ar e used to calculate a residual value for any remaining product lifetime beyond the analysis period and replacement costs for those lamps whose service life is less than the analysis period.

The primary inputs for establishing the lif e-cycle cost and payback period are:

8-3

### End-User Product Price : As discussed in Chapter 7, DOE starts with manufacturer catalog (“blue-book”) pricing, and applies discounts to develop low, medium, and high prices for all lamp types. The end-user product prices represent the consumer price before tax and

installation.

Sales Tax : DOE then applies sales tax to convert the end-user product price to a final product price including sales tax. Chapter 7 describes the sales tax markup in detail.

Installation Cost : This input represents the cost to th e commercial or industrial customers of installing the lamps or lamp systems. (In the residential sect or, there is only an installation cost for lamp systems when a new ballast is being installed.) The installation cost represents all costs required to install the lamp or lamp system but does not include the end-user product price. The installation cost includes labor and overhead. Thus, the total installed cost equals the end-user product price including sales tax plus the

installation cost.

Disposal Cost : After a GSFL reaches its end of life, some consumers pay to recycle those lamps. The disposal cost represents the cost of recycling a GSFL and is only applicable

to those consumers in the commerci al and industrial sectors.

The primary inputs for calculating th e operating cost include the following:

Annual Operating Hours : The annual operating hours are th e hours that a lamp is estimated to be in use during one year. The energy us e characterization (Chapter 6) details how DOE determines the lamp operating hours as a function of end-user sector, geographic region, and building type.

Power Rating : The power rating is the site-energy us age rate associated with operating the lamp or lamp-and-ballast system. The energy us e characterization (Cha pter 6) details how DOE determines the power ratings for the lamps and lamp-and-ballast systems considered in the analyses.

Electricity Prices : DOE uses the average price per kilowatt-hour (i.e., $/kWh) paid by customers. DOE determines electricity pr ices using national av erage residential, commercial, and industrial elect ricity prices for the sample calculation. For the Monte Carlo distribution, DOE uses av erage residential, commercial, and industrial values for 13 regions and large States. DOE develops all electricity pric e inputs using 2007 EIA

data.

Electricity Price Trends : DOE uses the EIA’s April 2009 Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) to forecast electricity prices. vi 

### This AEO2009 includes the impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (A RRA) of February 2009 (Pub. L. 111-5). For the results presented in this chapter, DOE uses the April 2009 AEO2009 reference case to forecast future electricity prices.

Lifetime : Lifetime is the total hours in operation after which the consumer retires the lamp or components of a lamp system from service.

Discount Rate : The discount rate is the rate at wh ich DOE discounts future expenditures to establish their present value.

8-4

### Analysis Period : Analysis period is the time span over which DOE calculates the LCC.

The residual value calculation al so uses all of the installed cost inputs as well as several operating cost inputs. Figure 8.1.1 depicts the relationships betw een the installed cost, operating cost, and residual value inputs for the calculation of the LCC and PBP. In this figure, the rectangular boxes indicate the i nputs, the parallelogram s indicate intermediate cal culated values,

and the diamond boxes indicate the anal ysis outputs (the LCC and PBP).

Figure 8.1.1 Flow Diagram of Inputs for the Determination of LCC and PBP

Table 8.1.2 summarizes the input values that DOE uses to calculate the LCC and PBP for

GSFL and IRL. Each row summ arizes the total installed cost inputs as well as operating cost, replacement cost, and residual value inputs, includ ing the lifetime, discount rate, and electricity price trend. DOE characterizes all of the total installed cost input s with single-point values, but characterizes several of the operating cost inputs with probability distributions that capture the input’s uncertainty and/or variability in the Monte Carlo analysis. Table 8.1.2 also lists the chapters of the Technical Support D ocument that detail the inputs.

8-5

### Table 8.1.2 Summary Information of Inputs for the Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Analyses

Factor Weighted-Average Value TSD Reference

Section

Total Installed Cost Primary Inputs

End-User Product Price Varies w ith lamp and ballast Chapter 7

Sales Tax Varies by census region Chapter 7

Installation Cost Varies by equipment installed and sector Chapter 8

Operating Cost Primary Inputs

Annual Operating Hours Vary by lamp type, sector, and building type. Chapter 6

Power Rating Varies with lamp type, and lamp or lamp-andballast system Chapter 6

Electricity Prices Vary by s ector and census region Chapter 8

Electricity Price Trends Vary with price forecast sc enario Chapter 8

Discount Rate Varies with sector Chapter 8

Analysis Period Varies with baseline lamp and annual operating

hours. Chapter 8

Replacement Cost and Residual Value Primary Inputs

Total Installed Cost Varies with lamp and ballast, census region, equipment installed and sector Chapters 7, 8

Lifetime Varies with lamp and system Chapters 5, 8

Disposal Cost Varies by lamp type and sector Chapter 8

Discount Rate Varies with sector Chapter 8

Analysis Period Varies with baseline lamp and annual operating

hours. Chapter 8



### Sections 8.2 and 8.3 discuss the installed cost and operating cost inputs depicted in Table

8.1.2

.

8.2 LIFE-CYCLE COST INPUTS

8.2.1 Definition

LCC is the total custom er cost over the life of a product, including total installed costs, operating costs, replacement costs, and residual value. Future opera ting costs and replacement costs are discounted to the analysis start year (2012) and summed over the analysis period. The residual value (if any) is credited back to th e LCC, if the operating life of the standards case technology exceeds that of the analysis period. The LCC is defined by the following equation:



#   

# 

 

###          

 
   N

t N t t tt



### r RV

r DC

r RCOC ICLCC

1 

### 1 )1()1( 

### Eq. 8.1

where

8-6

### LCC = life-cycle cost ($),

IC = total installed cost ($),

N = analysis period, ∑ = sum over the analysis period, from year 1 to year N,

OC = operating cost ($),

RC = replacement cost ($),

r

= discount rate,

t = year for which operating cost, replac ement cost, or disposal cost is determined,

DC = disposal cost of the lamp, and

RV = residual value for an analysis period N

.

DOE expresses all the costs in its L CC and PBP analyses in 2008 dollars.

8.2.2 Total Installed Cost Inputs

The tota l installed cost to the custom er is defined by the following equation:

INSTFPPIC   

### Eq. 8.2

where

FPP = final product price (i.e., customer price for the product only, including sales tax), expressed in dollars, and

INST = installation cost or the customer pric e to install products (i.e., the cost for labor and materials), expressed in dollars.

In the product price determin ation (Chapter 7), DOE devel ops end-user product prices

and sales taxes to derive fina l product prices. DOE then applies installation costs, where necessary, to derive the total inst alled costs for use in the LCC. The table below shows inputs to

determine total installed costs.

Table 8.2.1 Inputs for Total Installed Costs

End-User Product Price ($)

Sales Tax ($)

Installation Cost ($)



### The end-user product price is the average purchase price a consumer pays before sales tax for lamp designs or lamp-and-ballast designs. The sales tax represents State and local sales taxes applied to the end-user product price. It is a multiplicative factor that increases the end-user product price. Installation cost is the cost to the customer of installing the lamps or lamp systems, and only applies in the commercial a nd industrial sectors. The installation cost represents all costs required to install the lamp or lamp-and-ballast system but does not include the final product price. The installation cost includes labor and overh ead. Thus, the total installed cost equals the final product price plus the installation cost. DOE calculates the total installed cost for the lamps analyz ed based on the following equation:

8-7

### F P

P I NS T

INST

MU PRICE IC

TAX 

###    Eq. 8.3

where

IC = total installed cost,

FPP = final product price,

INST = installation cost,

PRICE = end-user product price, and

MU TAX 

### = sales tax mark up

Chapter 7 provides detail on the end-user pr oduct price and sales tax. Discussion on the

installation costs follows.

8.2.2.1 Installation Costs

DOE applies insta llation costs to individual lamps as well as lamp-and-ballast systems

installed in the commercial and industrial sectors. DOE assumes that in the residential sector, the homeowner replaces individual lamps; thus, DOE applies inst allation costs only to lamp-andballast systems in the residential sector.

On September 19, 2000, DOE issued a final rule establishing energy conservation standards for ballasts (hereafter referred to as ‘‘the 2000 Ballast Rule’’). 65 FR 56740 (Sept. 19, 2000); 10 CFR 430.23(m)(4). For GSFL, DOE obtai ns estimates of the prevalence of group versus spot relamping from the 2000 Ballast Rule. DOE then weighs the spot and group relamping times by the percent occurrence of spot versus group relampi ng to derive weighted averaged relamping times. According to th e 2000 Ballast Rule, group relamping occurs, on average, 25 percent of the time fo r 4-foot medium bipin systems, 37 percent for 8-foot single pin slimline systems, and 31 percent for 8-foot recessed double contact high-output systems. vii


### These percentages are used to calculate an average time to install lamps in the commercial and industrial sectors. When entire lamp-and-ballas t systems are being installed, DOE uses the times shown in the “Time to Install Lamps and Ballasts” column in Table 8.2.2

.

To account for installation costs for IRL, DOE uses relamping time estimates from the RS Means Electrical Cost Data, 2007 ( RS Means ). viii 

### Table 8.2.2 lists average labor times to install

a lam p (for IRL and GSFL) and a lamp and ba llast (for GSFL only). For new construction, renovation, and major retrofit GSFL purchase events, DOE also adds 2.5 minutes to the labor times when installing lamps and ba llasts to account for the installa tion of a luminaire disconnect.

DOE adds this additional installation time b ecause the 2005 National Electric Code requires a means for disconnecting luminaires before they are serviced for lamp or ballast replacements. ix

8-8

### Table 8.2.2 Relamping Times for General Se rvice Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps*

Lamp Type Spot Relamp

Time

minutes Group Relamp

Time

minutes Average Relamp

Time

minutes Time to Install Lamps and

Ballasts**

minutes

General Service Fluorescent Lamps (Commercial and Industrial) 2-Lamp Fixture - 4-Foot Medium Bipin, 4-Foot Miniature Bipin 27.0 14.0 23.8 30.0 3-Lamp Fixture - 4-Foot Medium Bipin 27.5 14.5 24.3 35.0 2-Lamp Fixture - 8-Foot Single Pin

Slimline 20.5 10.5 16.8 55.0 2-Lamp Fixture - 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact High-Output 26.5 13.5 22.5 60.0
Incandescent Reflector Lamps (Commercial)

All 4.0 N/A



### * GSFL labor times are obtained from the 2000 Ballast Rule. IRL labor times are obtained from RS Means. DOE

assumes that residential-sector consumers install thei r own lamps when replacing lamps; thus, DOE only models residential-sector installation costs when entire lamp-and-ballast systems are being installed, and only the times in the “Time to Install Lamps and Ballasts” column apply.

** For new construction, renovation, and major retrofit GSFL purchase events, labor times are increased by 2.5

minutes to allow for the installation of a luminaire disconnect.



### For lamp-and-ballast installations, DOE derive s labor rates for electricians and helpers

from RS Means . Labor rates are the sum of the wage rate, employer-paid fri nge benefits (i.e., vacation pay, employer-paid health, and welfare co sts), and any appropriate training and industry

advancement funds costs. An electrician’s av erage hourly rate with overhead and profit is typically $69.79 (in 2008$), and a helper’s averag e hourly rate is $45.28 (in 2008$). As in the 2000 Ballast Rule, DOE assumes that 50 percent of the electrician labor rate and 50 percent of the helper labor rate (for a total of $57.55 in 2008$) comprise the lamp-and-ballast installation

rate.

For lamp replacements in the commercial sector , DOE assumes that the task is performed by a general maintenance worker. The labor rate of $16.55 (adjusted to 2008$ from $15.01 in 2005) was obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for a General Maintenance

Worker. x 

### Using these labor rates and the labor times listed in Table 8.2.2 , DOE derives the average cost to install a lam p and the av erage cost to install a lamp and ballast.

8-9

### Table 8.2.3 Relamping and Lamp-and-Ballast La bor Cost for General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Lamp Type Relamping Labor Cost (2008$) Labor Cost to Install Lamps and Ballast* (2008$)
General Service Fluorescent Lamp (Commercial and Industrial) 2-Lamp Fixture, 4-Foot Medium Bipin and 4-Foot Miniature Bipin $6.55 $28.77
3-Lamp Fixture, 4-Foot Medium Bipin $6.69 $33.56
2-Lamp Fixture, 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline $4.63 $52.74 2-Lamp Fixture, 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact High Output $6.20 $57.54

Incandescent Reflector Lamps (Commercial)

All $1.10 N/A
*For new construction, renovation, and major retrofit GSFL purchase events, DOE increases the labor cost to install lamps and ballast by $2.40 (in 2008$) to allow for the installation of a luminaire disconnect.



### 8.2.3 Operating Cost Inputs

The operatin g cost represents the costs incurr ed in the operation of the lamp or lamp-andballast system. Table 8.2.4 lists the inputs for operating cost s. The analysis period, discount rate, and effective date of th e standard are required to dete rm ine the operating cost and for establishing the operating cost present value. The electricity consump tion for the baseline and other ELs examined enable comparison of standards’ operating costs.

Table 8.2.4 Inputs for Operating Costs

Annual Operating Hours

Power Rating

Electricity Prices

Electricity Price Trends

Discount Rate

Analysis Period



### The annual operating hours are the estimated hours that a lamp is in use during one year. Power rating refers to the rate of site energy usage associated with operating the lamp or lampand-ballast system. Both the annual operating ho urs and power rating are used to calculate the total annual energy consumption. Electricity prices used in th e analysis are the price per kilowatt-hour in cents or dollars (e.g., $/kWh) paid by each customer for electricity. DOE uses electricity price trends to forecas t electricity prices for future year analysis. These trends with the electricity price and annual en ergy consumption are used to calcu late the energy cost in each year. DOE defines energy cost by the following equation:



#   EPTEPOHPWR

cons



###  EPTEPEOC  Eq. 8.4

where

8-10

### OC = operating costs in 2008$,

E

cons 

### = annual energy consumed,

EP = electricity price in 2008$,

EPT = electricity price tre nd factor relative to 2008,

PWR = power rating (rate of energy use, measured in watts), and

OH = annual operating hours.

The remainder of this section provides information about each of the above input

variables that DOE used to calculate the operating costs for GSFL and IRL.

8.2.3.1 Operating Hours

The energy use characterization (Chapter 6) details how DOE determ ines the annual energy consumption for baseline and standard-c ompliant products. An important input to determining the energy consumption is the total h ours per year that the product is in operation. The operating hours are also used to calculate the lamp service life, which is ultimately used in calculating the total replacement cost and residual value.

As described in Chapter 6, DOE establishes operating hour distribu tions for GSFL and IRL. In conjunction with data from LMC, DOE uses data from EIA’s CBECS 2003, RECS 2005, and the MECS 2002. These EIA studies pr ovide information on the distribution of buildings within the United States by building type and census division. DOE associates the LMC’s operating hour data by building type with the EIA’s data by building type and census division to derive operating hour s by census division and large States. This allowed DOE to correlate its electricity price distribution and sales tax distri bution (see Chapter 7) with its operating hour distribution by cen sus division and large State in the LCC spreadsheet. Table

8.2.5 presents the mean operating hours for GSFL and IRL for each sector.

Operating hours for GSFL and IRL th e residential sector are shown in Table 8.2.5 . The high operating hours value shown in Table 8.2.6 is the highest operating hours value in the LMC for residential-sector GSFL and is typical of residential kitchens. See section 8.2.8 for

inform ation on how each operating hours valu e is used in the residential sector.

Table 8.2.5 Average Operating Hours by Sector and Lamp Type

Average Annual Operating Hours

Sector Lamp Category hours/year

GSFL 791 Residential
IRL 889

GSFL 3,435 Commercial
IRL 3,450

Industrial GSFL 4,795

8-11

### Table 8.2.6 High Operating Hours for GSFL in the Residential Sector

High Annual Operating Hours

Sector Lamp Category hours/year

Residential GSFL 1,210



### 8.2.3.2 Power Rating

As described in the energy use and end load characterization (Chapt er 6), DOE uses the power rating (in watts) and the annual operating hours (in hours) to calcu late the annual energy usage (in kilowatt-hours) of the lam p and lamp -and-ballast system designs DOE considers.

General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Because a fluorescent lamp requires a ballast to operate, DOE analyzes these lamps as systems consisting of both lamps and ballasts. Therefore, in the “lamp replacement” and “lamp and ballast replacement” scenarios, the system input power represents the energy consumption rate of the lamps and their associ ated ballast and therefore is diffe rent than simply the rated lamp power alone. When each lamp is paired with ba llasts with differing balla st factors (BFs), the lamp systems have different power ratings. S ee Chapter 6 for detailed results showing power ratings and annual energy consumption estimates given a BF and lamp power and operating

hours.

Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Because an IRL lamp system consists solely of a lamp, the system’s annual energy use is simply the product of the rated power and operating hours of the lamp. Detailed tables depicting the power rating and annual energy consumption for all of the IRL lamp designs are available in Chapter 6.

8.2.3.3 Electricity Prices

DOE estim ates electricity prices for resident ial, commercial, and i ndustrial consumers in each of the 13 regions and large St ates by using EIA Form 861 data. xi 

### Table 8.2.7 lists the 13 geographic regions. The EIA For m 861 data are published annually and include annual electricity sales in kilowatt hours; revenues from electricity sales; and number of consumers for the residential, commercial, and industrial sector s for every utility serving final consumers. The calculation of an average electricit y prices proceeds in two steps:

1) For each utility, estimate an average resi dential, commercial, or industrial price by dividing the residential, commer cial, or industrial revenues by residential, commercial, or

industrial sales.

2) Calculate a regional average price, wei ghting each utility with customers in a region by the number of residential, commercial, or i ndustrial consumers served in that region.

The calculation uses the most recent availa ble EIA data at the time the analysis was conducted, from 2007. Table 8.2.7 shows the results for each geographic region. Because DOE

8-12

### conducted the LCC and PBP analyses in 2008$, it need ed to convert all elect ricity prices into 2008$. To perform the necessary monetary conversion, DOE uses the consumer price index (CPI) to convert the electricity prices from 2007$ to 2008$. As described in the following section on electricity price trends, DOE normalizes energy prices to 2008. Therefore, to forecast energy prices for any given future year, DOE establishes energy prices for 2008. In Table 8.2.7

, DOE uses data from the April 2009 AEO2009 (which includes the impacts of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of February 2009) to estimate the electricity prices for 2008. DOE multiplies the electricity price in 2007 by the ratio of the April 2009 AEO2009- estimated residential, commercial, or i ndustrial prices for 2008 and 2007.

Table 8.2.7 Electricity Prices by Census Division, 2008

Electricity Prices,* 2008

Residential Commercial Industrial Census Division

2008$/kWh 2008$/kWh 2008$/kWh

New England $0.177 $0.159 $0.135

Middle Atlantic $0.130 $0.115 $0.084

East North Central $0.105 $0.095 $0.069

West North Central $0.090 $0.078 $0.081

South Atlantic $0.101 $0.088 $0.070

East South Central $0.089 $0.089 $0.074

West South Central $0.095 $0.088 $0.072

Mountain $0.099 $0.087 $0.065

Pacific $0.101 $0.098 $0.063

New York State $0.189 $0.175 $0.108

California $0.153 $0.141 $0.114

Texas $0.131 $0.123 $0.108

Florida $0.119 $0.105 $0.097

U.S. Weighted Average $0.119 $0.108 $0.088 * DOE converts dollars to 2008$ by multiplying costs in 2007$ by the ratio of 2008 CPI (215.303) to 2007 CPI (207.342). DOE converts the price for 2007 to the price in 2008 by multiplying the 2007 price by the ratio of the

average AEO electricity price in 2008 to the average AEO electricity price in 2007.



### 8.2.3.4 Electricity Price Trend

The electricity price trend proj ects the future cost of electricity to 2030. DOE nor mally calculates the LCC and PBP using th ree separate projections from AEO : reference, low economic growth, and high economic growth. The high and low growth cases show the projected effects of alternativ e economic growth assumptions on energy markets. Together,

these three cases reflect the uncer tainty of electricity price trends in the forecast period. The April 2009 AEO2009, featuring the impacts of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of February 2009 (ARRA), was the most recent AEO available at the time of this rulemaking. This

AEO2009 contained only the reference-case economi c growth projection, how ever. In order to develop high-economic-growth and low-economic-g rowth cases for the LCC and PBP analysis,DOE obtained the differences between the reference case and the high- and low-economicgrowth cases in the March 2009 AEO2009

, xii 

### which includes all three cases and does not include

8-13

### the impacts of ARRA. DOE then utilized these differences as scal ing factors to generate highand low-economic-growth cases based on the April 2009 AEO2009 reference case.

DOE normalizes these three April 2009 AEO2009 scenarios to the 2008 electricity price,

and then utilizes the electr icity price trends to scale the 2008 electricity prices. Figure 8.2.1 through Figure 8.2.3 show the residential, commercial, an d industrial electricity price trends, respectively, based on the three April 2009 AEO2 009 projections. The LCC results presented in this chapter are base d on the April 2009 AEO2009 reference case. Appendix 8B contains LCC results based on the high- and low-economic growth cases.

0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Price Trend (2008=1)



### Year High Growth

Reference

Low Growth



### Figure 8.2.1 Residential Sect or Electricity Price Trend

8-14

### 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Price Trend (2008=1)



### Year High Growth

Reference

Low Growth



### Figure 8.2.2 Commercial Sector Electricity Price Trend

8-15

### 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Price Trend (2008=1)



### Year High Growth

Reference

Low Growth



### Figure 8.2.3 Industrial Sector Electricity Price Trend

In the LCC spreadsheet, these electricity price trends are used to proj ect electricity prices into the future, which are then multiplied by th e annual energy usage. The resulting operating costs are presented in both the LCC spreadsheets a nd the LCC results tables in this chapter.

8.2.4 Lifetime

DOE defines lifetim e as the age in hours in operation when a lamp or ballast is retired from service. DOE uses published manufacturin g literature when available to derive lamp lifetimes. When published manufacturing litera ture on lamp lifetime is not available, DOE derives lamp lifetimes in the engineering anal ysis (Chapter 5). For GSFL, DOE bases its calculation of lamp lifetimes for both base- a nd standards-case lamps on 3-hour start data.

Like the calculation of relamping costs, DOE averages the group versus spot relamping impact on lifetime by their percent occurrence for GSFL in the commercial and residential sectors. (DOE assumes that re sidential-sector consumers replace their lamps either when they

fail or when the associated fixtur e is removed; thus, there are no spot or group relamping lifetime impacts on residential-sect or GSFL. See section 8.2.8 for further details on residential-sector

GSFL consum er behavior.) DOE assumes that a lamp subject to group re-lamping practices operates for 75 percent of its rated life. This is because during group relamping, a collection of lamps that are near the end of their lives are re moved and replaced at once, as a way of avoiding the failure of any individual lamp in the collect ion. Thus, some lamps in the collection will still have life remaining even though they are being replaced. DOE obtained the 75-percent estimate from the 2000 Ballast Rule. DOE then applies this life impact factor to th e rated lifetimes from the manufacturing literature for th e GSFL it is analyzing. For 4-foot medium bipin lamps and 4- foot miniature bipin lamps, the average lifetime DOE uses in the analysis is 94 percent of the

8-16

### rated lifetime. For 8-foot singl e pin slimline lamps, the average lifetime is 91 percent of the

rated lifetime. For 8-foot re cessed double contact HO lamps, th e average lifetime is 92 percent

of the rated lifetime. DOE does not assume an impact on lifetime due to group relamping for

IRL.

As discussed in the technology assessment (Chapter 3), many technology options to improve GSFL and IRL efficiencies affect the life time of the lamp. For this reason, the baseline and standard level designs for the LCC and PBP analyses have a wide range of lifetimes.

For ballasts in the commercial and industr ial sectors, DOE uses the average ballast lifetime used in the 2000 Ballast Rule (49,054 hr s). Using DOE’s estimate of 49,054 hours and average operating hours for GSFL in the commercial sector, the lifetime of an average ballast is approximately 14.2 years. This lifetime is cons istent with a study on the “measure life” of ballasts (i.e., the true service li fe of a ballast in the field), wh ich found that the average ballast

lifetime after a retrofit in the comm ercial sector is 13 years, and the average ballast lifetime after new construction is 15 years. xiii 

### DOE found in a separate measur e life report that the average

fixture and ballast in the resi dential sector lasts for 15 year s, as discussed in section 8.2.3.1

. Therefore, in its resid ential sector analysis fo r GSFL, DOE established 15 years as the average

ballast lifetime in the residentia l sector, regardless of operating hours. xiv 

### This is equivalent to, 11,865 hours at average operating hours of 791 hours per year, and 18,150 hours at high operating hours of 1,210 hours per year.

8.2.5 Replacement Cost

As stated e arlier, the lifetime is the age (tot al hours in operation) at which the lamp or components of a lamp system are retired from se rvice. The lifetime paired with the operating hours yields the service life of the lamp in years. Replacement costs include the labor and materials costs associated with replacing a lamp or ballast if either component must be replaced during the analysis period. By using the servi ce life and replacement cost, DOE calculates the total replacement cost each year.

Replacement costs are the labor and materials co sts associated with replacing a lamp or

ballast at the end of its lifetime. Because th e lifetimes of GSFL and IRL lamp designs vary within each of their respective pr oduct classes, it is at times nece ssary to replace a lamp within the analysis period. Generally, if the analysis pe riod is greater than the lamp service lifetime for a particular baseline or standard level design, those lamps will require replacement to reach the end of the analytical period. Each year in which a lamp reaches the end of its life, a new lamp is purchased and installed at the begi nning of that year, and the firs t cost and installation cost are discounted back to the base year of the analysis period. Ce rtain residential-sector GSFL consumers must also replace a ballast in the middle of the analysis period. See section 8.2.8 for

further details on these consum ers. For IRL in all se ctors, because there is no ballast in the analysis, the replacement cost is solely the total in stalled cost of the lamp itself. During years in which replacement of a lamp or ballast is n ecessary, DOE based the replacement costs on the total installed cost inputs, as seen in the following equation:

L TAX L L L


### INST MU PRICE INST FPPRC

   Eq. 8.5

8-17

### where

RC = replacement cost in 2008 dollars,

FPP L 

### = final product price (price for the product only) in 2008 dollars,

INST L 

### = installation co st in 2008 dollars,

PRICE L 

### = end-user product price in 2008 dollars, and

MU TAX 

### = sales tax.

For the years when no replacement is necessary, the replacement costs are set to zero.

8.2.6 Disposal Cost

When a GSFL fails, som e consumers choose to recycle the lamp. The cost of recycling the GSFL is its disposal cost. DOE performed research on recycling co sts for GSFL and found that, on average, disposi ng of a GSFL costs about 10 cents per linear foot. xv 

### A report released by the Association of Lighting and Mercury Recycl ers in 2004 noted that approximately 30% of lamps used by businesses and 2 percent of lamp s in the residential sector are recycled. xvi


### Because a relatively large percentage of c onsumers recycle lamps in the commercial and industrial sectors, DOE applies a cost of 10 cents per linear foot in 2008$ every time a lamp is replaced during the LCC analysis period. For 4-f oot lamps, the disposal cost is thus $0.40 per lamp in 2008$ while for 8-foot lamps, the dispos al cost is thus $0.80 per lamp in 2008$. The disposal cost also impacts the residual value of lamps that opera te beyond the end of the analysis period (described in 8.2.11 ). In the Monte Carlo analysis, DOE assum es that commercial and industrial consumers pay recycling costs for appr oximately 30% of lamp failures. Because few residential sector consumers recycl e lamps, DOE does not apply the di sposal costs to this sector. Disposal costs are also not applied to the LCC an alysis for IRL in any sector because consumers do not pay for their disposal.

8.2.7 Analysis Period

The analysis period is the tim e span over which the LCC is calculated. To account for variability in lifetime of lamp designs, DOE develops a consiste nt analytical time period

 comparing more-efficacious lamps against a baseline lamp over the lifetime of the longest-lived baseline lamp in a particular produc t class. When this analysis period is shorter

than the lifetime of the re placement lamp, DOE accounts for the remaining life of the replacement lamp as a residual value. When the an alysis period is longer than the lifetime of the replacement lamp, a second replacement lamp is installed, and if any operating life of that second replacement lamp remains at the end of th e analysis period, then its residual value is added back into the LCC. By using the a nnual operating hours paired with published lamp lifetimes, DOE calculates the lamp service lifetime in years.

For the IRL and the commercial and industria l sector GSFL LCC analyses, DOE bases the analysis period on the longest baseline lamp life in a cert ain product class divided by the annual operating hours of that lam p. If the user chooses to run the LCC using weighted-average values (i.e., in “sample calculation” mode), th en the analysis period is based on the longest baseline lamp life divided by the average annual operating hours for that lamp in a chosen sector, or a multiple thereof. For example, the longest-lived baseline IRL is 3,000 hours. If the user

8-18

### chooses to analyze this lamp in the commercial sector, then the analysis period is the lamp lifetime of 3,000 hours divided by the average annual operating hours of IRL in the commercial sector (3,450 hours per year), or 0.9 years. To allow users to compare the cost of IRL over multiple lamp lifetimes, one can select a multiple of this analysis period (i.e., 1.8, 2.7, or 3.6 years). If the user chooses to run the LCC using the Monte Carl o simulation (i.e., in “Crystal Ball” mode), the analysis period is based on the longest baseline lamp life divided by the annual operating hours chosen by Crystal Ball ® 

### . For example, if Crystal Ball ® 

### selects a building that is used for religious worship, the analysis period for IRL for that selection will be based on a lamp lifetime of 3,000 hours divided by the annual ope rating hours of IRL in a building used for religious worship (1,609 hours per year), or 1.9 year s. Users cannot select a multiple of this analysis period when using the Monte Carlo simulation.

8.2.8 Residential GSFL Analysis

As described in section 8.2.4 , the average useful lifetime of ballasts in the residential sector is approxim ately 15 y ears, regardless of operating hours. xvii 

### When operated for the residential-sector high operating hours value of 1,210 hours per year, the baseline GSFL (which has a lifetime of 15,000 hours) has a rated lifetime equivalent to approximately 12.4 years. When operated for average operating hours, howev er, the baseline lamp has a rated lifetime equivalent to approximately 19 years, which is greater than the 15-year ballast life. Thus, DOE assumes two types of GSFL consumer behavior in the residential sector. In the first kind of consumer behavior, consumers dispose of their lamps when replacing a ballast, regardless of how much lifetime the lamps have remaining. Because a lamp failure for these consumers would not occur under average operating hours of 791 hour s per year (as the fixture would be removed before the lamp would reach the end of its rate d life), DOE uses only high operating hours in the lamp failure event for these consumers. DOE selected the highest operating hours in the LMC for GSFL in order to represent the best possible LCC savings th ese consumers could obtain when replacing a failed lamp.

In the second kind of consumer behavior, residential-sector GSFL consumers preserve their lamps when replacing a fixture, then insta ll the lamps on the new fixture. This allows the lamps to live for their entire rated lifetimes in situations of average ope rating hours, and DOE is thus able to model a lamp failure event for average operating hours.

For the residential-sector GSFL LCC analysis, DOE thus uses the useful life of a baseline lamp for a specific event. Because the fixed fixtur e life of 15 years limits the useful life of a lamp when operated for average operating hours by consumers who do not preserve their lamps, DOE uses a different analysis period for the lamp replacement event than that used for the ballast

failure and new construction and renovation ev ents when modeling consumers who do not preserve their lamps. When using the highest GSFL operating hours in the residential sector, the lifetime of the baseline lamp is approximately 12.4 years. When this lamp fails and is replaced at the 12.4-year mark, triggeri ng the beginning of the LCC anal ysis period, the ballast has another 2.6 years of life remaining. Therefore, for GSFL in the residential sector operated at high operating hours by consumers who do not preserve their lamps, the longest useful life of the baseline replacement lamp is 2.6 years or 3,146 operating hours. At the end of this lifetime, the ballast is removed and the lamps are disposed of. For the lamp replacement event in the

8-19

### residential sector for consumers who do not preserve their lamps, the analysis period is therefore 2.6 years.

For the ballast failure and new construction and renovation events in the residential sector, DOE uses average operating hours only and assumes that a consumer will purchase a new lamp when purchasing a ballast. DOE models only non-lamp-preserving consumers for the

ballast failure and new construc tion and renovation events in orde r to obtain a lower bound of LCC savings. Because the lamp lifetime exceeds the ballast lifetime when under average operating hours conditions, DOE assumes that the ballast lifetime of 15 y ears limits the lamp

lifetime. Therefore for GSFL in the residential sector, the useful life of the baseline lamp and therefore the analysis period is 15 years for the ballast failure and new construction and

renovation events.

Residential-sector GSFL consumers who exhi bit lamp-preserving behavior are able to realize the full rated lifetime of their lamps even when utilizing average operating hours. At average operating hours (791 hours pe r year), the full lifet ime of the baseline lamp is 19 years. Thus, DOE models the lamp failure event at av erage operating hours and u tilizes 19 years as the analysis periods for consumers who preserve thei r lamps. DOE assumes that when a ballast is removed in the middle of the analysis period, th ese consumers preserve their lamps, purchase a new ballast of the same type as the initial ballast, and then have the new ballast installed with the preserved lamps (incurring a lamp-and-ba llast system installation cost).

8.2.9 Discount Rate

The discount rate is the rate at which DOE di scounts future expenditure s to establish their present values. DOE derives the discount ra tes f or the lamps rulemaking separately for

residential and commercial/industrial consumers. For residential consumers, DOE estimates the discount rate by looking across all possible debt or asset classes th at might be used to purchase lamps. For the commercial and industrial cons umers, DOE estimates the cost of capital for commercial and industrial companies by examining bot h debt and equity capital, and develops an appropriately weighted average of the cost to the company of equity and debt financing.

8.2.9.1 Residential Discount Rate

GSFL and IRL are comparatively low-cost pr oducts for households to replace. With retail prices under one dollar for certain lamp types, households typically purchase lamps as needed. DOE’s approach involves identifying all possible debt or asset classes that might be used to purchase replacement equipment, incl uding household assets that might be affected indirectly. 1 

### DOE does not include debt from primary mo rtgages and equity of assets considered non-liquid (such as retirement accounts), since these would likely not be used to finance replacement lamp purchases. DOE estimated the average shares of the various debt and equity classes in the average U.S. hous ehold equity and debt portfolios using data from the Federal

1 An indirect effect would arise if a household sold assets to pay off a loan or credit card debt that might have been

used to finance the actual lamp purchase.

8-20

### Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances ( SCF ) for 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2004,

and 2007. xviii 

### Table 8.2.8 shows the average shares of each considered class. DOE uses the

m ean share of each class across the six survey years (15 years) as the basis for estimating household financing of lamps and lighting equipment.

Table 8.2.8 Average Percentage Shares of Household Debt and Equity Types

Type 1989

SCF 1992

SCF 1995

SCF 1998

SCF 2001

SCF 2004

SCF 2007

SCF Mean (%)

Home equity loans 4.3 4.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 4.4 4.6% 3.7%

Credit cards 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.4% 2.1%

Other installment loans 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.1% 1.6%

Other residential loans 4.4 6.9 5.2 4.3 3.1 5.8 7.1% 5.3%

Other line of credit 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3% 0.5%

Checking accounts 5.8 4. 7 4.9 3.9 3.6 4.2 3.4% 4.4%

Savings & money market 19.2 18.8 14.0 12.8 14.2 15.1 13.0% 15.3%

Certificate of deposit (CD) 14.5 11.7 9.4 7.0 5.4 5.9 6.5% 8.6%

Savings bond 2.2 1.7 2.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7% 1.4%

Bonds 13.8 12.3 10.5 7.0 7.9 8.4 6.7% 9.5%

Stocks 22.4 24.0 25.9 36.9 37.5 28.0 28.6% 29.0%

Mutual funds 8.0 11.1 20.9 20.1 21.3 23.4 25.5% 18.6%

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100



### DOE estimated interest or return rates associ ated with each type of equity and debt. The

data source for the interest rates for loans, credit cards, and lines of credit is the Federal Reserve Board’s SCF in 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2007. The top half of Table 8.2.9 shows the average nom inal interest rates in each year and the inflation rates used to calculate real rates. For home equity loans, DOE calculates eff ective interest rates in a similar manner as for mortgage rates, since interest on such loans is tax deductible. The bottom half of the table shows the average effective real interest rates in each y ear and the mean rate acro ss all the years. Since

the interest rates for each debt carried by households in these years were esta blished over a range of time, DOE believes they are representative of rates that may apply when amended standards

take effect.

8-21

### Table 8.2.9 Average Nominal and Real Int erest Rates for Household Debt Classes

Type 1989

SCF 1992

SCF 1995

SCF 1998

SCF 2001

SCF 2004

SCF 2007

SCF Mean (%)

Nominal Interest Rates %

Home Equity Loans 11.5 9.6 9.6 9.8 8.7 5.7 6.3% 7.9%

Credit Cards*

- - 14.2 14.5 14.2 11.7 7.9% 9.0%

Other Installment Loans 9.0 7.8 9.3 7.8 8.7 7.4 12.6% 13.4%

Other Residential Loans 8.8 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.5 6.0 10.4% 8.6%

Other Line of Credit 14.8 12.7 12.4 11.9 14.7 8.8 6.3% 7.4%

Inflation rate 4.82 3.01 2.83 1.56 2.85 2.66 2.85

Real Interest Rates %

Home Equity Loans 3.8 4.3 4.4 5.8 3.8 1.9 2.1% 3.0%

Credit Cards*

- - 11.0 12.7 11.1 9.1 3.3% 3.9%

Other Installment Loans 4.9 5.8 7.0 6.6 6.1 5.4 9.7% 10.7%

Other Residential Loans 4.0 4.7 4.8 6.0 4.6 3.3 5.8% 6.0%

Other Line of Credit 9.6 9.4 9.3 10.2 7.3 6.0 3.4% 4.4%

* No interest rate data available for credit cards in 1989 or 1992.



### To account for variation among new househol ds, DOE samples a rate for each household

from a distribution of rates for each of the above debt classes. DOE develops a probability

distribution of interest rates for each debt class based on the SCF data. Appendix 8C presents the probability distribution of interest rates for each debt class that DOE used in the LCC and PBP analyses.

Similar rate data are not available from the SCF for the asset classe s, so DOE derives

data for these classes from nationa l historical data. The interest rates associated with certificates of deposit (CDs), xix 

### savings bonds, xx 

### and bonds (AAA corporate bonds) xxi 

### are from Federal

Reserve Board time-series data 1977-2008. DOE assu mes rates on checking accounts to be zero. Rates on savings and money market accounts are from Cost of Savings Index data covering

1984-2008. xxii 

### The rates for stocks are the annual returns on the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500

1977-2008. xxiii 

### The mutual fund rates are a weighted average of the stock rates (two-thirds weight) and the bond rates (one-thi rd weight) in each year fr om 1977 to 2008. DOE adjusts the nominal rates to real rates using the annual inflation rate in each year. Average nominal and real

interest rates for the classes of assets are shown in Table 8.2.10 . Since the interest and return rates for each asset type cover a rang e of time, DOE believes they are representative of rates that may apply when amended standards take effect. .

8-22

### Table 8.2.10 Average Nominal and Real Inte rest Rates for Household Equity Types

Type Average Nominal Rate % Average Real Rate %

Checking Accounts

- 0.0

Savings and Money Market 5.4 2.2

CDs 6.6 2.3

Savings Bonds 7.7 3.3

Bonds 8.5 4.1

Stocks 11.6 7.1

Mutual Funds 10.3 5.8



### To account for variation among new househol ds, DOE samples a rate for each household

from a distribution of rates for each of the above asset types. DOE develops a normal probability

distribution of interest rates fo r each asset type by using the m ean value and standard deviation from the distribution. Appendix 8C presents the probability distribution of interest rates for each asset type that DOE used in the LCC and PBP analysis.

Table 8.2.11 summarizes the mean real effective rate s of each type of equity or debt.

DOE determines th e average shar e of each debt and asset using SCF data for 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2007. Each year of SCF data prov ides the debt and asset shares for U.S. households. DOE averages the debt and asset shares over the six years of survey data to arrive at the shares shown below. The average rate across all types of house hold debt and equity, weighted by the shares of each class, is 4.8 percent.

Table 8.2.11 Shares and Interest or Return Rates Used for Household Debt and Equity Types

Type Avera g e Share of Household Debt Plus Equit y % * Mean Effective Real Rate % **

Home Equity Loans 3.7 3.9

Credit Cards 2.1 10.7

Other Installment Loans 1.6 6.0

Other Residential Loans 5.3 4.4

Other Line of Credit 0.5 8.8

Checking Accounts 4.4 0.0

Savings and Money Market Accounts 15.3 2.2

CDs 8.6 2.3

Savings Bonds 1.4 3.3

Bonds 9.5 4.1

Stocks 29.0 7.1

Mutual Funds 18.6 5.8

Total/Weighted-Average Discount Rate 100 4.8
* Not including primary mortgage or retirement accounts. ** Adjusted for inflation and, for home equity loans, loan interest tax deduction.

8-23

### 8.2.9.2 Commercial Discount Rate

Most com panies use both debt and equity capital to fund investments; for most companies, therefore, the cost of capital is the we ighted average of the cost to the firm of equity and debt financing. xxiv



### DOE estimates the cost of equity financ ing using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The CAPM, among the most widely used models to estimate the cost of equity financing, assumes that the cost of equity is proportional to the amount of systematic risk associated with a firm. For example, the cost of equity financing tends to be high when a firm faces a large degree of systematic risk, and the co st tends to be low when the firm faces a small degree of systematic risk.

The degree of systematic risk facing a firm and the subsequent cost of equity financing are determined by several variables, including the risk coefficient of a firm (beta, or B ), the expected return on risk-free assets (R f 

### ), and the additional return expected on assets facing average market risk (known as the equity risk pr emium, or ERP). The beta indicates the degree of risk associated with a given firm, relative to the level of risk (or price variability) in the overall stock market. Betas usually vary betw een 0.5 and 2.0. A firm with a beta of 0.5 faces

half the risk of other stocks in the market; a firm with a beta of 2.0 faces twice the overall stock

market risk.

Following this approach, the cost of equity financing for a particular company is by the equation:



#   ERP Rk

fe 

###     Eq. 8.6

where

k

e 

### = the cost of equity for a company, expressed in dollars,

R f 

### = the expected return of the risk free asset, expressed in dollars, 

## β = the risk coefficient, and

ERP = the expected equity risk premium, expressed in dollars.

The cost of debt financing (k d 

### ) is the yield or interest ra te paid on money borrowed by a company (raised, for example, by selling bonds). As defined here, the cost of debt includes compensation for default risk and excludes deductions for taxes.

DOE estimates the cost of debt for companies by adding a risk adjustment factor to the current yield on long-term corpor ate bonds (the risk-fr ee rate). This proc edure is used to estimate current and future company costs to obta in debt financing. The adjustment factor is based on indicators of company risk, such as cr edit rating or variability of stock returns.

The discount rate of companies is the weighted average cost of debt and equity financing, less expected inflation. DOE estimates the discount rate using the equation:

8-24ddee 

### wkwkk     Eq. 8.7

where

k = the (nominal) cost of capital,

k

e 

### and k d 

### = the expected rates of retu rn on equity and debt, respectively, and

w e 

### and w d 

### = the proportion of equity a nd debt financing, respectively.

The real discount rate deducts expected inflation from th e nominal rate.

The expected return on risk-free assets, or the risk-free rate, is defined by the current yield on long-term (20-year) Government bonds, as suggested by Ibbotson’s Associates xxv 

### and

Damodaran. xxvi 

### The ERP represents the difference betw een the expected (average) stock market

return and the risk-free rate. As Table 8.2.12 shows, DOE uses an ERP estimate of 5.1 percent,

which it too k from the Damodaran Online site (a private website associated with New York University’s Stern School of Business, which aggregates information on corporate finance, investment, and valuation). xxvii



### DOE calculates an expected in flation of 3.1 percent from the average of five quarters’ change in GDP prices. xxviii 

### DOE obtained the cost of de bt, percent debt financing, and systematic firm risk from the Damodaran Online website. Table 8.2.12 shows average values across all private com panies. However, the cost of debt, percent debt financing, and systematic firm risk vary by sector.

Table 8.2.12 Variables Used to Estimate Company Discount Rates

Variable Symbol Average

Value

% Source

Risk-Free Asset Return R f 7.3 Damodaran Online Equity Risk Premium ERP 5.6 Damodaran Online Expected Inflation R 3.1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Cost of Debt (After Tax) k d 6.9 Damodaran Online Percent Debt Financing w d 25.6 Damodaran Online Systematic Firm Risk B 1.02 Damodaran Online



### In the commercial building sector, lamp s are purchased and owned by commercial building property owners, commercial companie s, industrial companies and the Government. DOE uses a sample of 4,207 companies drawn from these owner categories to represent lamp purchasers. It took the sample from the list of companies included in the Value Line investment

survey xxix 

### and listed on the Damodaran Online website. DOE obtained the cost of debt, the firm beta, the percent of debt and e quity financing, the risk-free retu rn, and the equity risk premium

from Damodaran Online.

DOE estimates the cost of debt financi ng for these companies from the long-term

Government bond rate and the standard deviatio n of the stock price. For Government-officetype owners, the discount rate represents an aver age of the Federal rate and the State and local bond rate. DOE drew the Federal rate directly from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget

8-25

### discount rate for investments in Gove rnment building energy efficiency. xxx 

### DOE estimates the

State and local discount rate fr om the interest rate on State and local bonds between 1977 and

2001. xxxi 

### DOE uses this information to estimate th e weighted-average cost of capital for the sample of companies included in the commercia l property owner, commercial, and industrial company database.

The cost of capital may be viewed as the disc ount rate that should be used to reduce the future value of typical company project cash fl ows. It is a nominal discount rate, since anticipated future inflation is included in both stock and bond expected returns. Deducting expected inflation from the cost of capital pr ovides estimates of the real discount rate by ownership category (see Table 8.2.13 ). The mean real discount rate for these companies varies between 2.3 percent (Governm ent offices) a nd 8.3 percent (industrial companies).

Table 8.2.13 Real Discount Rates by Lamp Ownership Category

Ownership Category SIC

Codes* Mean Real

Discount Rate

% Standard

Deviation

% Number of

Observations

Industrial Companies 1 - 4 7.6 2.3 1942 Commercial Companies 5 - 8 8.3 2.4 2339 Commercial Property Owners 6720 6.3 2.0 7

Government Offices N/A 2.3 1.1 N/A * SIC Codes refer to the U.S. Standard Industrial Classification system. Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) calculations based on firms sampled from the Damodaran Online website as performed for the distribution transformers rulemaking.



### DOE’s approach for estimating the cost of cap ital provides a measure of the discount rate spread as well as the average discount rate. DOE infers the discount rate spread by ownership category from the standard deviation, whic h ranges between 1.1 pe rcent and 2.4 percent ( Table

8.2.13 ).

Different combinations of commercial property owners a nd commercial, industrial, and Government buyers purchase the lamp types consid ered in the LCC analysis. Accordingly, DOE

constructs the discount rates associated with each building sector from different combinations of commercial property owner, commercial, i ndustrial, and Government rates.

To estimate the share of each ownership category in total commercial sector purchases of lamps, DOE uses the share of each category in total commercial building square footage with lighting provided by EIA’s 2003 CBECS. Table 8.2.14 presents the estimated shares of commercial lamp purchases by ownership ca tegory of commercial building space.

8-26

### Table 8.2.14 Estimated Share of Lamp Purchases by Ownership Category in the

Commercial Sector

Ownership Category Percent

Property Owners and Managers 22.3

Industrial Firms 10.1

Commercial Firms 54.8

Government 12.8

Source: 2003 CBECS. * The share of total square footage occupied by property owners is actually 44.6%. However, in some of these buildings, the tenants purchase lamps. DOE assumes that this is the case for half of the square footage occupied by property owners. DOE allocates this quantity among the other categories in proportion to th eir shares of total square footage.



### Table 8.2.15 presents the distribution of lamp ownership for th e commercial and industrial lighting sectors.

Table 8.2.15 Lamp Ownership by Sector

Sources: Commercial, CBECS; Industrial, DOE estimate. Sector Property Owners

% Indus trial Companies

% Commercial Companies

% Government

%

Industrial 0 100 0 0

Commercial 22.3 10.1 54.8 12.8



### DOE estimates discount rate distributions for the different sectors as a weighted average of the distributions for the different ownership types. The resulting weighted average discount rates are 7.6 percent for the indus trial sector and 7.0 percent for the commercial sector. Table

8.2.16 summarizes the weighted average di scou nt rates in all three sectors.

Table 8.2.16 Average Discount Rate by Sector

Sector Discount Rate

%

Industrial 7.6

Commercial 7.0

Residential 4.8



### 8.2.10 Effective Date of Standard

The effective date is the date when a new st andard becom es operative, i.e., the date by which lamp manufacturers must manufacture pro ducts that comply with the standard. DOE’s publication of a final rule in th is standards rulemaking is scheduled for completion in June 2009. The effective date of any new energy conserva tion standards for these lamps must be 3 years after the final rule is published, (42 U.S.C. 6295( i)(3) and (i)(5)), which will be June 2012. DOE

calculates the LCCs for all cons umers as if each would purchas e a new product in the year the standard takes effect. However, DOE bases the cost of the equipment on the most recent available data; all dollar va lues are expressed in 2008$.

8-27

### 8.2.11 Residual Value

The residu al value represents the remaining value of a lamp or a ballast from the end of the period of analysis to the end of the service li fe of the lamp or ballast. Since the analysis period is based on the lifetime of the longest-l ived baseline lamp, DOE assumes lamps with lifetimes shorter than the analys is period are replaced. To account for the remaining value of these lamps (with remaining life) to the consumer, the LCC model applies this residual value as a “credit” at the end of the analysis period, and discount s it back to the start of the analysis period. This methodology is shown in Equation 8.1, where DOE presents how it incorporates residual value into its LCC calculation. The equati on for residual value is as follows: 

#    

  

  

   

  

 SL SLnP DC SL SLnPSL ICRV Analysis Analysis 

### )(

 



###   Eq. 8.8

where

IC = total installed cost of the product,

n = the number of replacements within the analysis period,

SL = the service life of the product,

DC = disposal cost (commercial and industrial sectors only), and

P

Analysis 

### = the analysis period.

DOE determines the residual value of the product by linearly prorating the replacement cost (i.e., total installed cost) a nd the disposal cost by the remain ing service life. For example,
consider a $10 4-foot GSFL that has a service li fe of 5 years and a disposal cost of $0.40 and is used to replace a baseline lamp that has a servi ce life of 3 years in the commercial sector. Since the baseline lamp defines the analysis period, DOE would calculate the residual value of the lamp design as (2 5) x $10 + (3 5) x $0.40, or $4.24. Thus, the residual value in equation 8.8 would be $4.24, and that value would be discounte d back to the start of the tim e period of analysis. This equation is used for both lamps and ballasts inst alled by consumers.

8.3 PAYBACK PERIOD INPUTS

8.3.1 Definition

The PBP is the am ount of time it takes the consumer to recover the assumed higher purchase cost of a more-energy-efficient pr oduct as a result of lower operating costs. Numerically, the PBP is the ratio of the increas e in purchase cost (i.e ., from a less efficient design to a more efficient design ) to the decrease in annual operati ng expenditures. This type of calculation is known as a “simple” PBP, because it does not take into account changes in operating cost over time or the time value of mone y. That is, the calculation is done at an effective discount rate of zero percent.

8-28

### The equation for PBP is:

OC IC PBP  

 

### Eq. 8.9

where

PBP = payback period in years,

∆ IC = difference in the total installe d cost between the more-efficacious standard level; equipment (efficacy levels 1, 2, etc.) and the baseline (efficacy level 0) equipment, and



### ∆ OC = difference in annual operating costs.

PBPs are expressed in years. PBPs greater than the life of the product mean that the

increased total installed cost of the more-e fficacious product is not recovered in reduced operating costs over the lifetime of that product. Because all lamp designs and lamp-and-ballast designs in the LCC and PBP analyses sa ve energy and thus yield a positive 

### ∆ OC , PBPs that are

zero indicate that the total installed cost of th e equipment that meets the more-efficacious EL is

less than that of the baseline.

8.3.2 Rebuttable Presumption Payback Period

Section 325(o)(2)(B)(iii) of EPCA establishes a rebuttable presumption that a standard for GSFL or IRL is economically justified if the Secretary finds that “the additional cost to the consumer of purchasing a product complying with an energy conser vation standard level will be

less than three times the value of the energy. . . savings during the first year that the consumer

will receive as a result of the sta ndard, as calculated under the applic able test procedure . . . .” (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(iii)) This rebuttable pr esumption test is an alternative path to establishing economic justification, as compared to consideration of the seven factors set forth in 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(I)-(VII).

DOE’s lamp test procedures measure the rate of light output per unit power consumption of a lamp (i.e., lumens per watt; lm/W) rather th an a measurement of energy consumption (i.e., a measurement over a duration or operating time pe riod). Therefore, to calculate energy savings for the rebuttable presumption payback period, one would need to multipl y the rate of power consumption of a lamp times the usage profile of that lamp. For IRL, energy savings calculations in the LCC and PBP analyses use both the relevant test procedures as well as the relevant usage profile. Because DOE calculates payback periods in a methodology consistent with the rebuttable presumption test for IRL in the LCC and payback period analyses, DOE is not performing a stand-alone rebuttable presumption analysis for IRL, as it is already embodied in the LCC and PBP analyses. For GSFL, DOE be lieves that the rate of energy consumption of the lamp-and-ballast system is a more accurate measure of real world power consumption than the rate of power consumption of the lamp as measured on a reference ballast as prescribed by

8-29

### the test procedure. 2 

### Because calculations of energy savi ngs in the LCC are based under realworld conditions, DOE will also rely on standard payback periods for GSFL.

8.3.3 Inputs

The data inp uts to PBP are the total installe d cost of the product to the customer for each EL and the first-year operating costs for each EL. The inputs to the total installed cost are the end-user product price and the installation cost incurred by a consumer at the very beginning of the analysis period. Thus, purchases and associ ated installation costs incurred by consumers in the middle of the analysis period are not reflecte d in the payback period computation. The inputs to the operating costs are the lamp or lamp-a nd-ballast system power rating, annual operating hours, and electricity cost. The PBP uses the same inputs as the LCC calculation described in

section 8.2 , except that electricity pri ce trends are not requ ired. Since the PBP is a “simple” (undiscounted) PBP, the required electricity cost is only for the year in which a new energy

conservation standard is to take effect—in this case, 2012. The el ectricity price DOE uses in the PBP calculation for electricity cost is the price projected for 2012, expressed in 2008$.

8.4 LAMP PURCHASING EVENTS

DOE designs the LCC and PBP analyses fo r this rulem aking around scenarios where consumers need to replace a lamp; DOE collectively refers to these as “lamp purchasing events.” Each of these events may present the consumer w ith a different set of lamp or lamp-and-ballast designs and therefore a different set of LCC savings for a certain EL. For GSFL, DOE has identified five possible scenarios under which consumers would purchase a lamp and potentially be affected by an energy conservation standard . These scenarios are: 1) lamp failure, 2) standards-induced retrofit, 3) ballast failure, 4) ballast retrofit a nd 5) new construction/

renovation.

Only the lamp failure and new construction and renovation events apply for IRL since the IRL analyzed by DOE in this rulemaking do not have ballasts. For GSFL, the five lamp purchasing events are described in more detail below. In addition to these descriptions, Table

8.4.1 and Table 8.4.2 summarize the lamp purchasing events considered in this analysis.

 

### Event I: Lamp failure - This event reflects a sc enario in which a lamp either fails (spot relamping) or is about to fail (group re-lamping, in the commercial and industrial sectors only) and must be replaced. DOE assumes that in the base case (the absence of an energy conservation standard), an identical lamp woul d be installed as a replacement. However, under an energy conservation standard, a standa rds-compliant lamp that operates on the existing ballast is required. Thus , the first consumer response to a lamp failure is expected to

2 For example, T8 lamps which are often operated on high-frequency electronic ballasts, may be tested and measured on a line-frequency (60 Hz) reference ballast using DOE’s test procedure, resulting in different performance characteristics th an this lamp would exhibit in the field, operated on an electronic ballast.

8-30

### be a lamp replacement with the same type of lamp; DOE denotes this event as Event IA (Lamp Failure: Lamp Replacement). A second response occurs for owners of T12 systems. Unlike T8 or T5 lamps, there are some standard levels that a T12 lamp cannot meet. Therefore, at certain levels, these users would be required to purchase a new lamp-andballast system to meet the st andard. DOE denotes this even t as Event IB (Lamp Failure: Lamp and Ballast Replacement). At these ce rtain levels, DOE believes the scenario of a lamp failure and lamp-and-ballast replacement would be more common in the residential

sector. For the commercial and industrial se ctors, DOE believes consumers would primarily experience the standards-induced re trofit event described below.

 

### Event II: Standards-induced retrofit - This is a scenario in which an increase in the energy

conservation standard induces certain commercia l- and industrial-sec tor end-users of T12 lamps to retrofit both lamps and ballasts before they experience a lamp failure (whereas, in the base case, they would have in stalled only a lamp after the failu re of their initial lamp), as

there are certain standard levels that a T12 lamp cannot meet. The standards-induced retrofit event does not apply to the residential sector because DOE assumes that residential-sector consumers will not replace their la mps before they fail, even in response to standards. DOE assumes a uniform age distribution of T12 lamps. Based on this age distribution, the average T12 lamp is halfway through its lifetime when the standards-case T12 consumer decides to perform a standards-induced retrofit (by purch asing a standards-compliant lamp-and-ballastsystem), triggering the start of the analysis pe riod. Base-case consumer s continue to operate their T12 lamp for the remaining half of its lif e and then purchase a replacement lamp in the middle of the analysis period.

 

### Event III: Ballast failure - This is a scenario in which the failure of the installed ballast triggers a lamp and ballast purchase. DOE r ecognizes that energy conservation standards set by the 2000 Ballast Rule and the Energy Polic y Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005), Pub. L. 109-58, are effective in 2010 and may affect the types of systems available to the consumer to purchase. These standards ban the sale of ma gnetic 4-foot medium bipin and 8-foot single pin slimline ballasts in the commercial and indust rial sectors. Therefor e, in the base case, users who had a magnetic or electronic T12 ballas t would be expected to replace it with an

electronic T12 ballast and co rresponding standards-compliant lamp (if available). The regulations from the 2000 Ballast Rule, however, allow the continued sale of magnetic cold temperature ballasts, which operate a portion of the installed base of 8-foot T12 recessed double contact HO lamps. The 2000 Ballast Rule also includes exceptions for magnetic

ballasts in the residential sect or. Therefore, failed 8-foot recessed double contact HO ballasts as well as residential ballasts are expected to be replaced with magnetic ballasts or fixtures containing magnetic ballasts Users in all produc t classes who had a T8 or T5 ballast fail would be expected to replace it with a T8 or T5 ballast and corresponding standardscompliant lamp. However, in the standards case, end-user s would select a standardscompliant lamp-ballast combination such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system.

 

### Event IV: Ballast retrofit - DOE applies th is event only to comme rcial- and industrialsector T12 users because the majority of ballast s that are currently be ing retrofitted are T12 lamp-and-ballast systems, according to industry experts. Absent standards, end-users may decide to retrofit their old ballasts and lamps to save energy. With standards, end-users will

8-31

### also retrofit their old lamp-a nd-ballast systems, but with st andards-compliant lamps. DOE

assumes that end-users continue to use the ex isting fixture and replace only the ballast. Because the spatial layout in the building space is a constrained by the number of fixtures, light output of the replacement lamp-and-ballast system never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system.

 

### Event V: New construction and renovation - Th is lamp purchasing event encompasses all the new fixture installations where the lighti ng design will be completely new or can be completely changed. This scenario is only appli cable to those baseline lamps that are usually

used in new construction and re novation (4-foot T8 medium bipin lamps, 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO and HO lamps in the commercial and industrial sectors (respectively), 8-foot single pin slimline T8 lamps, and 8-foot recessed double contact HO T12 lamps). DOE assumes that 4-foot T8 medium bipin lamps with elect ronic ballasts would be chosen during the new

construction and renovation event for the 4-foot T 12 medium bipin baseline in the residential sector. During new construction and renovation, the spatial layout of fixtures in the building space is not constrained to any previous c onfiguration. Because new fixtures can be installed, consumers could instal l a lamp-and-ballast system that would not maintain the light output of the baseline system. For instance, if light output of the standards case system is lower than the base case system, consumers canincrease the number of standards case lampand-ballast systems installed in the building by a certain percentage to maintain the light output of base case lamp-and-balla st systems. DOE takes this capability into account in the LCC and PBP analyses.

Table 8.4.1 through Table 8.4.3 outline the events and actions taken by base-case and

standards-case consum ers in response to the five events described above.

8-32

### Table 8.4.1 Framework of Event-Type Scenar ios for T12 Baseline Lamp Consumers

Event Base-Case

Action Standards-Case

Action

(a) Installs a T12 lamp. Installs a lower-wattage, higher-efficacy lamp such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline

system. Type 1. Lamp Failure

(b) Installs a T12 lamp. Installs a T12 or T8 elect ronic ballast and lamp such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline

system.Type 2. StandardsInduced Retrofit** Replaces lamp halfway through analysis period in the commercial and industrial

sectors.* Installs a new T12 or T8 electronic ballast and lamp such that th e system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. Type 3. Ballast

Failure Installs a T12 ballast and lamps in the existing fixture. HO ballasts and residential ballasts are magnetic, while other ballasts

are electronic. Installs a new T12 or T8 ballast and lamps such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline

system. Type 4. Ballast

Retrofit** Installs a T8 electronic ballast and lamps in the existing fixture. Installs a new T12 or T8 ballast and lamps such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline

system. Type 5. New

Construction and

Renovation For the 4-foot medium bipin and 8-foot single pin slimline product classes, installs a new electronic T8 syst em. For the 8-foot recessed double contact HO product class, installs a new magnetic T12 system. Installs a new T12 or T8 system such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. Light output can be maintained through alternate spacing. * Note: Event Type 2 represents a standards-induced retr ofit, where lamps are substituted before the end of their

lifetime in the commercial and industrial sectors. DOE as sumes that lamps live to half of their average lifetime

when substituted in the base case under this scenario. ** Note 2: Only applicable to the commercial and industrial sectors.

8-33

### Table 8.4.2 Framework of Event-Type Scenar ios for T8 Baseline Lamp Consumers

Event Base Case Action Standards Case Action

Type 1. Lamp Failure Installs a lamp. Installs a lower-wattage, higher-efficacy lamp such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline

system.

Type 3. Ballast

Failure Installs a T8 electronic ballast and lamps in the existing fixture. Installs new T8 ballast and lamps such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system.

Type 5. New

Construction and

Renovation Installs a new T8 system. Installs a new T8 system such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. Light output can be maintained through alternate spacing.



### Table 8.4.3 Framework of Event-Type Scenar ios for T5 Baseline Lamp Consumers

Event Base Case Action Standards Case Action

Type 1. Lamp Failure Installs a lamp. Installs a lower-wattage, higher efficacy lamp such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline

system.

Type 3. Ballast

Failure Installs a T5 electronic ballast and lamps in the existing fixture. Installs a new T5 ballast and lamps such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system.

Type 5. New

Construction and

Renovation Installs a new T5 system. Installs a new T5 system such that the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. Light output can be maintained through alternate spacing.



### 8.5 LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS

This section presents LCC results for each lam p and lamp-and-ballast design that DOE considers. This section uses the terms “pos itive LCC savings” and “negative LCC savings.” When a standard results in “pos itive LCC savings,” the life-cycle cost of the standards-compliant lamp is less than the life-cycle co st of the baseline lamp and the consumer benefits. A consumer is adversely affected when a standard results in “negative LCC savings” (i.e., when the life-cycle cost of the standards-compliant lamp is higher than the life-cycle cost of the baseline lamp).

As stated earlier, DOE conducts a series of LCC calculations for each baseline lamp. For GSFL, DOE considers lamp-only substitutions as well as lamp-and-ballast substitutions. For IRL, DOE considers lamp-only substitutions. In all cases, DOE considers only designs that save energy and maintain light output above a maximu m 10 percent decrease from the baseline lamp

or system.

All replacement options are designed ar ound lamp purchasing events, described in

section 8.4 . The LCC spreadsheet calculates the LCC i mpacts for each of these scenarios

8-34

### separately. Examining the impacts on each scenario separately allows one to view the results of many sub-populations in the LCC analysis.

8.5.1 Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps
DOE is analyzing five repres entative product classes for G SFL: 4-foot medium bipin

≤ 4,500K, 8-foot single pin slimline ≤ 4,500K, 8-foot recessed double contact HO ≤ 4,500K, 4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output ≤ 4,500K, and 4-foot T5 miniature bipin high output ≤ 4,500K. This section presents all of the result s for each of these representative product classes and for each baseline lamp. The results are pres ented by lamp purchasing event, by sector, and by whether a consumer purchases a lamp or a lamp and ballast, both of which influence the LCC

and PBP results.

For each product class and baseline lamp, a su mmary of the most pertinent results in the LCC analysis is also presented. In this summary, DOE indicates why the LCC savings and installed price increases are not presented for certa in ELs under certain base lines and events with an acronym. For instance, DOE assumed that consumers wish to purchase systems or lamp replacements with a lumen output within 10 perc ent of their baseline system output. In some cases, the only available replacement options produce less light than this. Thus, certain replacement options are considered unsuitable substitutions. These options are marked with “LL” (less light) in the LCC results summary tables. In some cases, when consumers who currently own a T12 system need to repl ace their lamps, no T12 energy saving lamp replacements are available. In these cases, in order to save energy, the consumers must switch to other options, such as a T8 lamp and appropriate ballast. These cases are marked with “NER” (no energy-saving replacement) in tables.

Because some baseline lamps already meet higher efficacy levels ( e.g. , the baseline 32W 4-foot T8 medium bipin lamp achieves EL2), L CC savings at the levels below the baseline are zero. In these cases, “BAE” (baseline above efficacy le vel) is listed in the tables to indicate that the consumer makes the same purchase decision in the standards-case as they do in the basecase. Also, not all lamp purchase events apply fo r all baseline lamps or efficacy levels. For example, DOE assumed that the standards-induced retrofit event does not apply to the 32W T8 system, because it is already the most efficacious 4-foot medium bipin GSFL system. For these events, an “EN/A” (event not ap plicable) exists in the table. Finally, because LCC savings are not relevant when no energy conser vation standard is established, “N/A” (not applicable) exists in the LCC savings column for the baseline system.

DOE is also presenting the installed prices of the lamp-and-ballast systems in order to compare the up-front costs that consumers must b ear when purchasing baseline or standards-case systems. For example, the installed price resu lts for a lamp replacement in response to a lamp failure event (Event IA) only include the lamp pur chase price and lamps installation costs. On the other hand, the ballast failure event (Event III) and the new cons truction/renovation event (Event IV) include the purchase and installation costs for lamps a nd a ballast for the baseline and standards-case systems. This is because the occu rrences of these events require the purchase of new lamps and ballasts in all cases. Note that the installed price value contains only purchase and installation costs incurred by consumers at the very beginning of the analysis period. Thus,

8-35

### any purchases and installation costs incurred by c onsumers in the middle of the analysis period are not reflected in the installed price value.

8.5.1.1 Product Class: 4-f oot medium bipin ≤ 4,500K

For the 4-foot medium bipin ≤ 4,500K product class in the commercial sector, DOE analyzes three baseline lamps: 40W T12, 34W T12, and 32W T8. In the residential sector, DOE only analyzes the 4-foot 40 W T12 medium bipin lamp as a baseline for this product class as DOE believes this is the predominant lamp t ype installed in that sector. For each baseline lamp, DOE analyzes multiple lamp substitutions with each lamp substitution corresponding to the efficacy levels. Table 8.5.1 presents the findings of the L CC and PBP analyses on the first 4-

foot m edium bipin baseline GSFL. This table presents the LCC and PBP results for the 40W T12 baseline lamp operating in the commercial s ector. Key inputs consist of using April 2009

AEO2009 reference case electricity pr ices, an analysis period of 5.5 years, and medium-range lamp and ballast prices.

The results for Event IA (Lamp Failure) s how that the LCC of the baseline 4-foot 40W T12 medium bipin lamp on a magnetic ballast is higher than the LCC of the 34W T12 on a magnetic ballast that meets EL3. Any EL beyond EL3 for this baseline would require a lampand-ballast replacement. As discussed in the engi neering analysis (Chapter 5), although a 4-foot 34W T12 medium bipin lamp is often considered a reduced wattage replacement of the 40W T12 lamp, there were no lamp options that emitted enough lumens to fall within 10 percent of the baseline system lumens. The highest efficacy 34W T12 lamp replacement is shown below. The system light output of this lamp -and-ballast design is 10.3 percent less than that of the baseline system. The same drop in lumen output is also exhibited by the 34WT12 lamp on an electronic

ballast of the same BF.

Because no 4-foot T12 medium bipin lamps would be standards-compliant at EL4 and EL5, consumers with T12 ballasts who are confr onted with a lamp failure beyond EL3 would be

forced to retrofit their ballasts and instead purchase a T8 system. The LCC savings and

incremental costs related to th is action can be seen under the standards-induced retrofit event (Event II). At EL4 and EL5, consumers who are forced to retrofit thei r ballast would achieve positive LCC savings; however, they would also in cur an incremental installed price (baseline installed price minus standards-case installe d price) greater than $51.21 per system. In particular, 4-foot 40W T12 medium bipin consumers who re trofit would obtain the greatest LCC savings at EL4 and EL5 by retrofitting to an electronically-ballasted 32W T8 system.

Event III represents consumers who are alr eady faced with replacing both a lamp and a

ballast. The baseline ballast for this event in the commercial sector is assumed to be an electronic T12, since the ballast standards from the 2000 Ballast Rule and EPACT 2005 would

be effective in 2010. In order to save ener gy with similar lumen output at EL1 and EL2, consumers would purchase a higher-efficacy 4-f oot 40W T12 medium bipin with a lower-BF ballast. These choices result in negative LCC savings. However, under such a standard, 40W T12 consumers would be able to achieve positiv e LCC savings under a ball ast failure scenario by purchasing systems at EL3 through EL5. Similar to the standards-induced retrofit, at EL4 and

8-368-37 

### EL5 consumers are forced to purchase T8 syst ems. Those who purchase a 4-foot 32W T8 medium bipin lamp generally achieve the highest LCC savings. Consumers prompted by this event would experience positive LCC savings if th ey purchase a high efficacy 4-foot T8 medium bipin lamp on an electronic ballast at all ELs.

Event IV represents consumers who are al ready planning on retrof itting a 4-foot T12 medium bipin system with a T8 system. The baseline system for this event is assumed to be a T8 system. To save energy with similar lumen out put at EL3, consumers could purchase a 34W T12 with an electronic ballast. However, those w ho purchase a 32W T8 lamp generally achieve the highest LCC savings.Table 8.5.1 LCC and PBP Results for a Three-Lamp 4-Foot40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the CommercialSectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign Option3LCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline78.041 W T12 & 0.95 BF Mag203.590.0014.500.00N/A0.0A: LampReplacementEL391.234 W T12 & 0.88 BF Mag181.5122.0926.106.841.7-10.3EL180.541 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec211.15-7.5575.316.958.7-3.5EL182.941 W T12 & 0.87 BF Elec211.94-8.3480.147.179.2-2.7EL286.232.5 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec211.23-7.6367.625.1010.48.7EL287.841 W T12 & 0.87 BF Elec212.21-8.6280.457.179.23.3EL391.234 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec189.4814.1180.0412.165.4-10.3EL390.832.5 W T8 & 1 BF Elec191.2012.3970.8510.295.5-1.0EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec169.5134.0863.3113.743.6-8.3EL493.830.4 W T8 & 1 BF Elec182.1621.4372.1712.604.6-2.0EL493.026.6 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec177.4926.1076.0813.434.61.4EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec170.9532.6464.9313.743.7-6.2Event I: LampFailureB: Lamp &BallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 1 BF Elec176.3827.2171.5514.453.9-6.43Throughout the GSFL results tables, descriptions such as “41W T12 & 0.95 BF Mag” are used. The first term (e.g., 41W) is therated wattage, the second is thelamp diameter (e.g., T12), the third is the ballast factor of the ballast (e.g., 0.95 BF), and the fourth is the ballast type (e.g., “Mag” for Magnetic or “Elec” forElectronic).8-38Table 8.5.1 LCC and PBP Results for a Three-Lamp 4-Foot40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the CommercialSector(continued)EventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline78.041 W T12 & 0.95 BF Mag196.530.0014.500.00N/A0.0EL180.541 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec212.56-16.0477.716.959.1-3.5EL182.941 W T12 & 0.87 BF Elec213.35-16.8382.547.179.5-2.7EL286.232.5 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec212.64-16.1270.025.1010.98.7EL287.841 W T12 & 0.87 BF Elec213.63-17.1082.847.179.53.3EL391.234 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec190.905.6382.4412.165.6-10.3EL390.832.5 W T8 & 1 BF Elec192.623.9173.2510.295.7-1.0EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec170.9225.6065.7113.743.7-8.3EL493.830.4 W T8 & 1 BF Elec183.5812.9574.5712.604.8-2.0EL493.026.6 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec178.9117.6278.4813.434.81.4EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec172.3724.1667.3313.743.8-6.2Event II:StandardsInducedRetrofitLamp &BallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 1 BF Elec177.8018.7373.9414.454.1-6.4BaselineBaseline78.041 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec204.270.0068.440.00N/A-7.4EL180.541 W T12 & 0.87 BF Elec210.16-5.8875.310.2231.1-4.6EL182.941 W T12 & 0.87 BF Elec211.94-7.6680.140.2252.9-2.7EL287.841 W T12 & 0.87 BF Elec212.21-7.9480.450.2254.33.3EL391.234 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec189.4814.7980.045.212.2-10.3EL390.832.5 W T8 & 1 BF Elec191.2013.0770.853.340.7-1.0EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec169.5134.7663.316.790.0-8.3EL493.830.4 W T8 & 1 BF Elec182.1622.1172.175.650.7-2.0EL493.026.6 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec177.4926.7876.086.481.21.4EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec170.9533.3264.936.790.0-6.2Event III:Ballast FailureLamp &BallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 1 BF Elec176.3827.8971.557.500.4-6.4* Comparative lumens are sometimes non-zero for baseline T12 electronic systems under Event Type 3 and 4 (ballast failure and ballast retrofit) because the lumen package is compared to a system with aT12 magnetic ballast. DOE chose to compare these systems forthese events because it recognizes that though federal regulations will prohibit the use of magnetic ballasts, future purchasers may still seekthe current lumen package delivered by current T12 magnetic systems.8-398-40Table 8.5.1 LCC and PBP Results for a Three-Lamp 4-Foot40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the CommercialSector(continued)EventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline/EL286.232.5 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec212.640.0070.020.00N/A8.7EL391.234 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec190.9021.7482.447.061.8-10.3EL390.832.5 W T8 & 1 BF Elec192.6220.0373.255.190.6-1.0EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec170.9241.7265.718.640.0-8.3EL493.830.4 W T8 & 1 BF Elec183.5829.0774.577.500.6-2.0EL493.026.6 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec178.9133.7378.488.331.01.4EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec172.3740.2767.338.640.0-6.2EventIV:BallastRetrofitLamp &BallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 1 BF Elec177.8034.8573.949.340.4-6.4

### Table 8.5.2 presents the findings of the LCC and PBP analyses on a second baseline 4-

foot m edium bipin GSFL. This table presents the LCC and PBP results for the 4-foot 34W T12 medium bipin baseline lamp operating in the commercial sector. Key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices, an analysis period of 5.5 years, and medium-range lamp and ballast prices.

For the 4-foot 34W T12 medium bipin baseli ne, when commercial-sector consumers are confronted with a lamp failure in the base case, they purchase the 34W T12 baseline lamp as alamp replacement on their magnetic T12 ballast. As this is the lowest-wattage commerciallyavailable T12 lamp, there are no energy-saving lamp replacement options for this system. Because there are no energy-saving lamp replacem ent options for a 34W T12 lamp, Event IA is not shown. However, consumers do have th e option to purchase higher-efficacy 34W T12 lamps, resulting in no energy savings and an installed price increase ranging from $3.84 to
$14.45.

For Event II, the standards-induced retrofit ev ent, consumers retrofit ting to a 4-foot 34W T12 medium bipin lamp on an electronic T12 ballast experience negative LCC savings. However, under such a standard, consumers would also be able to achieve positive savings by purchasing EL3, EL4, and EL5 T8 systems with e ither a higher-efficacy 32W T8 lamp or other reduced-wattage lamps. Because no 4-foot T12 medium bipin lamps would be standardscompliant at EL4 and EL5, consumers with T12 ba llasts who are confronted with a lamp failure

at these levels would be forced to retrofit thei r ballasts and instead purch ase a T8 system. The incremental installed prices associated with this forced retrofit ar e greater than $54.06 per

system.

For the 4-foot 34W T12 medium bipin baseli ne, when commercial-sector consumers are

confronted with a ballast failure (Event III) in the base case, they purchase the 34W T12 baseline lamps and a 0.88 ballast factor elect ronic ballast. In order to save energy with similar lumen output at EL1 and EL2, consumers would purch ase a higher-efficacy 34W T12 with a lower-BF ballast. In addition, at EL3, consumers may pur chase a 4-foot 34W T12 medium bipin lamp with a lower-BF ballast as well. However, thes e choices result in negative LCC savings. In the face of a standard established at EL3, 34W T 12 consumers can achieve positive LCC savings

under a ballast failure scenario by purchasing systems at EL4 and EL5. Similar to the standardsinduced retrofit, at EL4 and EL5, consumers woul d be forced to purchase T8 systems. Those who purchase the reduced-wattage 4-foot 25W and 28W T8 medium bipin lamps achieve the highest LCC savings.

Event IV represents consumers who are al ready planning on retrof itting a 4-foot T12 medium bipin system with a T8 system. The baseline system for this event is assumed to be a T8 system. To save energy with similar lumen out put at EL3, consumers could purchase a 34W T12 with an electronic ballast. However, those w ho purchase a 25W T8 lamp generally achieve the highest LCC savings.

8-41Table 8.5.2 LCC and PBP Results for a Three-Lamp 4-Foot34W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the CommercialSectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrsBaselineBaseline77.934 W T12 & 0.88 BF Mag170.090.0011.650.00N/A0.0EL182.434 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec181.90-11.8169.425.3210.97.0EL285.334 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec187.22-17.1376.725.7611.310.9EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec167.762.3359.646.916.99.6EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec158.0712.0262.879.795.24.4EL391.234 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec187.50-17.4180.045.7611.918.5EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec152.7217.3863.3110.654.85.6EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec150.9619.1364.1911.674.53.3EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec141.7828.3168.1013.514.22.2EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.71 BF Elec148.9921.1064.9311.814.52.3Event I: LampFailureB: Lamp &BallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec146.7223.3763.5713.173.9-1.3BaselineBaseline77.934 W T12 & 0.88 BF Mag164.330.0011.650.00N/A0.0EL182.434 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec183.32-18.9871.825.3211.37.0EL285.334 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec188.63-24.3079.125.7611.710.9EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec169.18-4.8462.046.917.39.6EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec159.494.8565.269.795.54.4EL391.234 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec188.92-24.5882.445.7612.318.5EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec154.1310.2065.7110.655.15.6EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec152.3711.9666.5911.674.73.3EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec143.2021.1470.5013.514.42.2EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.71 BF Elec150.4113.9367.3311.814.72.3Event II:StandardsInducedRetrofitLamp &BallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec148.1316.2065.9613.174.1-1.38-428-43Table 8.5.2 LCC and PBP Results for a Three-Lamp 4-Foot34W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the CommercialSector (continued)EventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrsBaselineBaseline77.934 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec178.070.0065.590.00N/A0.0EL182.434 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec179.92-1.8569.420.448.74.5EL285.334 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec187.22-9.1576.720.4425.210.9EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec167.7610.3059.641.590.09.6EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec158.0720.0062.874.470.04.4EL391.234 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec187.50-9.4380.040.4432.718.5EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec152.7225.3563.315.330.05.6EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec150.9627.1164.196.350.03.3EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec141.7836.2968.108.190.32.2EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.71 BF Elec148.9929.0864.936.480.02.3Event III:BallastFailureLamp &BallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec146.7231.3563.577.850.0-1.3BaselineBaseline/EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec169.180.0062.040.00N/A9.6EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec159.499.6965.262.881.14.4EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec154.1315.0565.713.751.05.6EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec152.3716.8066.594.761.03.3EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec143.2025.9870.506.601.32.2EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.71 BF Elec150.4118.7767.334.901.12.3Event IV:BallastRetrofitLamp &BallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec148.1321.0465.966.270.6-1.3

### Table 8.5.3 presents the findings of an LCC and PB P analyses on a third baseline 4-f oot medium bipin GSFL. This table presents th e LCC and PBP results for the 4-foot 32W T8 medium bipin baseline lamp operating in the commercial sector. Key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices, an analysis period of 5.5 years, and medium-range lamp and ballast prices.

For the 4-foot 32W T8 medium bipin base line, commercial-sector consumers purchase either the 32W T8 baseline lamp (under lamp failure or new construction/renovation) or the 32W T8 baseline lamp and an electr onic 0.88 BF ballast (under ball ast failure). Event I (Lamp Failure) displays results for consumers who must replace a baseline lamp with a higher-efficacy lamp. For this event, inst alling reduced-wattage lamps is the only opportunity for energy savings. At EL4, consumers who purchase 4-f oot 30W T8 medium bipin lamps achieve lower LCC savings than those who purchase 25W T8 la mps. At EL5, the only reduced-wattage lamp replacement option (the 28W T8 ) achieves positive LCC savings.

When confronted with a ballast failure or new construction purchase (Events III and V), consumers who would have purchased the 4-foot 32W T8 medium bipin baseline system in the base case would achieve positive LCC savings at EL3 by purchasing higher-efficacy 32W T8 lamps on a lower-BF ballast. At EL4, these c onsumers could obtain the greatest LCC savings by purchasing an electronically-balla sted 25W T8 system on a 0.88 BF ballast. However, there is a 6.7 percent decrease in mean lu mens from the baseline. At EL5, they achieve the higher LCC savings by purchasing the 4-foot 32W T8 medi um bipin lamp on a lower-BF ballast.

8-44Table 8.5.3 LCC and PBP Results for a 3-Lamp 4-foot 32W T8Medium Bipin System Operating in the Commercial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline/EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec139.890.0012.430.00N/A0.0EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec135.134.7616.982.082.26.3EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec113.9125.9820.896.601.3-6.7Event I:LampFailureA: LampReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec130.199.7016.353.741.11.6BaselineBaseline/EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec167.760.0059.640.00N/A0.0EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec158.079.6962.872.881.1-4.7EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec152.7215.0563.313.751.0-3.6EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec150.9616.8064.194.761.0-5.7EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec141.7825.9868.106.601.3-6.7EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec154.1613.6064.933.751.4-1.4Event III:BallastFailureLamp &BallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec158.069.7063.573.741.11.6BaselineBaseline/EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec169.180.0062.040.00N/A0.0EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec159.499.6965.262.881.1-4.7EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec154.1315.0565.713.751.0-3.6EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec152.3716.8066.594.761.0-5.7EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec143.2025.9870.506.601.3-6.7EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec155.5813.6067.333.751.4-1.4Event V:NewConstructionandRenovationNew Lamp& BallastPurchaseEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec159.489.7065.963.741.11.68-45

### Table 8.5.4 summarizes the range of commercial sector LCC results for the 4-foot

m edium bipin product class. Only the most relevant events under each baseline lamp are shown. As discussed above, the imposition of a standard at or above EL4 would induce the replacement of T12 systems with T8 systems, as no 4-foot 40W or 34W T12 medium bipin lamps can meet these ELs. For all baseline lamps and for all fa ilure events shown, there are design options with positive LCC savings at ELs 3 and higher.

Table 8.5.4 Summary of the LCC Results for a Three-Lamp 4-Foot Medium Bipin System Operating in the Commercial Sector

LCC Savings Installed Price
2008$ 2008$BaselineEfficacy Level

Event IA: Lamp Replacement

* Event II:

StandardsInduced

Retrofit (Lamp and

Ballast Replacement)

* Event III:

Ballast Failure*† Event IA: Lamp Replacement Event II:

StandardsInduced

Retrofit (Lamp and

Ballast Replacement) Event III:

Ballast Failure†

Baseline N/A N/A N/A 14.50 14.50 68.44

EL1 LL EN/A -7.66 to

-5.88 LL EN/A 75.31 to

80.14

EL2 LL EN/A -7.94 LL EN/A 80.45

EL3 22.09 EN/A 13.07 to

14.79 26.10 EN/A 70.85 to

80.04

EL4 NR 12.95 to

25.60 22.11 to

34.76 NR 65.71 to

78.48 63.31 to

76.0840 Watt T12

EL5 NR 18.73 to

24.16 27.89 to

33.32 NR 67.33 to

73.94 64.93 to

71.55

Baseline N/A N/A N/A 11.65 11.65 65.59

EL1 NER -18.98 -1.85 15.49 71.82 69.42

EL2 NER -24.30 to

-4.84 -9.15 to

10.30 12.43 to

22.79 62.04 to

79.12 59.64 to

76.72

EL3 NER -24.58 to

4.85 -9.43 to

20.00 15.65 to

26.10 65.26 to

82.44 62.87 to

80.04

EL4 NR 10.20 to

21.14 25.35 to

36.29 NR 65.71 to

70.50 63.31 to

68.1034 Watt T12

EL5 NR 13.93 to

16.20 29.08 to

31.35 NR 65.96 to

67.33 63.57 to

64.93

Baseline N/A N/A N/A 12.43 12.43 59.64

EL1 BAE EN/A BAE BAE EN/A BAE

EL2 BAE EN/A BAE BAE EN/A BAE

EL3 NER EN/A 9.69 NER EN/A 62.87

EL4 4.76 to 25.98 EN/A 15.05 to

25.98 16.98 to

20.89 EN/A 63.31 to

68.1032 Watt T8

EL5 9.70 EN/A 9.70 to 13.60 16.35 EN/A 63.57 to

64.93 †For 32 Watt T8 baseline, includes Event V (New Construction and Renovation). *Analysis period is 5.5 years. N/A: Not Applicable; NER: No En ergy-Saving Replacement; LL: Availabl e Options Produce Less Light; EN/A: Event Not Applicable; BAE: Baseline Above Efficacy Level; NR: No Replacement

8-46

### Table 8.5.5 and Table 8.5.6 present the findings of the LCC and PBP analyses on the 4-

foot 40W T12 medium bi pin baseline GSFL in the resident ial sector for consumers who do not preserve their lamps during fixture replacement. See section 8.2.8 for a description of

residential-sector GSFL consum er behavior. The results in Table 8.5.5 were generated using high operating hours (of 1,210 hours per year), allowing the lam p failure event to occur for these consumers. The 4-foot 40W T12 medium bipin lamp is the only baseline for the residential sector GSFL analysis due to the rarity of 34W T12 and 32W T8 lamps in the residential sector. Key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices and mediumrange lamp and ballast prices. Th e analysis period is 15 years for Event III, which represents the 15-year life of the fixture. For Events IA (Lamp Replacement) and IB (Lamp & Ballast Replacement), the analysis period is 2.6 years becau se when a lamp fails and is replaced, the fixture has 2.6 years of life remaining befo re it is removed. As discussed in section 8.2.8, operating hours for Event III are average operating hours for residentia l-sector GSFL (791 hours/year) while operating hours for Event IA a nd IB are high operating hours for residentialsector GSFL (1,210 hours/year).

In general, residential non-lam p-preservi ng consumers responding to a lamp failure experience negative LCC savings in the face of standards. For Event IA (Lamp Replacement), there are no energy-saving replacement lamp options for the 4-foot 40W T12 medium bipin residential system. DOE recognizes that not a ll consumers can use a 4-foot 34W T12 medium bipin lamp on a residential magnetic low power factor ballast becaus e not all ballasts are designated to operate this lamp. However, in its review of manufact urer literature, DOE identified several low power fact or residential magnetic ballasts that are designated to operate the 34W T12 lamp. Therefore, DOE considers this event applicable for some residential consumers. These consumers are adversely imp acted by EL3 when replacing only a failed lamp (Event IA). The reduced-wattage 4-foot 34W T12 medium bipin lamp, while more efficacious than the baseline, does not save enough energy to offset its increased purchase price within the 2.6-year analysis period, leadi ng to negative LCC savings.

Event IB (Lamp & Ballast Replacement) di ffers from a standards-induced retrofit

because DOE assumes that Event IB occurs as a re sponse to a lamp failure. In both Event IB and a standards-induced retrofit, a consumer purchases only a lamp in the base case and a lamp-andballast system in the standards case. However, DOE assumes that residential consumers will not proactively replace their 4-foot T 12 medium bipin systems before their T12 lamp fails; thus, the

standards-induced retrofit event does not apply to the resident ial sector. At EL4 and EL5, consumers must purchase a 4-foot T8 medium bi pin system as T12 lamps do not meet these ELs. At all ELs in Event IB, the available system options do not save non-lamp-preserving consumers enough energy to offset their increased purchase price of the lamp and ballast in 2.6 years, leading to negative LCC savings.

In the case of Event III (Ballast Failure), residential consumers purchase a magnetic 4- foot T12 medium bipin system in the base cas e and an electronic or magnetic T12 system or electronic T8 system in the standards case. At all standard levels, LCC savings are positive. The least positive LCC savings occurs at EL3 wher e a consumer purchases a magnetic T12 system with a 34W lamp in the standards case. LCC savings are the most pos itive when a consumer purchases a 25W T8 system at EL4.

8-478-48 

### For Event V (New Construction and Renova tion), DOE assumes that the baseline residential sector lamp will be a 4-foot T8 me dium bipin lamp and electronic ballast. In the standards case, only one T12 option exists, which is a reduced-wattage electronically-ballasted

T12 at EL3. At all other sta ndard levels, only T8s can be pur chased. All standard levels applicable to Event V produce positive LCC savings for consumers. LCC savings are the most positive when a consumer purchases a 4-foot 28W T8 medium bipin lamp at EL5.Table 8.5.5 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 40WT12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the ResidentialSector Using High Operating HoursEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline76.841 W T12 & 0.68 BF Mag27.120.004.130.00N/A0.0A: LampReplacementEL391.234 W T12 & 0.66 BF Mag32.65-5.5312.941.366.5-5.3EL180.541 W T12 & 0.65 BF Elec34.02-6.9052.971.6429.80.3EL182.434 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec34.22-7.1049.041.0941.17.5EL182.941 W T12 & 0.65 BF Elec34.93-7.8056.191.6431.82.3EL285.334 W T12 & 0.75 BF Elec31.00-3.8853.913.0016.60.7EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec31.24-4.1250.512.5118.51.1EL287.841 W T12 & 0.65 BF Elec34.99-7.8656.391.6431.98.6EL391.234 W T12 & 0.66 BF Mag36.71-9.5960.191.3641.1-5.3EL391.234 W T12 & 0.75 BF Elec31.62-4.5056.123.0017.37.6EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec31.16-4.0452.662.7917.44.5EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec31.25-4.1352.962.7917.59.9EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec30.64-3.5153.553.1115.93.4EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec29.16-2.0456.154.0312.9-5.7EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.71 BF Elec30.65-3.5254.043.1715.86.4Event I: LampFailureB: Lamp andBallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec29.99-2.8753.133.3314.72.78-49Table 8.5.6 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 40WT12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the ResidentialSector Using Average Operating HoursEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline76.841 W T12 & 0.68 BF Mag120.440.0051.380.00N/A0.0EL180.541 W T12 & 0.65 BF Elec110.2010.2552.971.071.50.3EL182.434 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec110.2210.2349.040.710.07.5EL182.941 W T12 & 0.65 BF Elec113.417.0356.191.074.52.3EL285.334 W T12 & 0.75 BF Elec101.2719.1753.911.961.30.7EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec101.4718.9750.511.640.01.1EL287.841 W T12 & 0.65 BF Elec113.626.8256.391.074.78.6EL391.234 W T12 & 0.66 BF Mag119.381.0660.190.899.9-5.3EL391.234 W T12 & 0.75 BF Elec103.4816.9656.121.962.47.6EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec101.5818.8652.661.820.74.5EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec101.8718.5752.961.820.99.9EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec100.1220.3253.552.041.13.4EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec96.0824.3656.152.641.8-5.7EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.71 BF Elec100.2320.2154.042.071.36.4Event III:BallastFailureLamp andBallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec98.1222.3253.132.180.82.7BaselineBaseline/EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec110.690.0052.910.00N/A0.0EL391.234 W T12 & 0.75 BF Elec105.884.8158.520.945.9-5.6EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec106.024.6755.060.623.5-4.7EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec106.314.3755.360.624.00.2EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec104.206.4955.950.863.5-5.7EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec103.337.3558.551.184.8-6.7EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec105.355.3356.440.804.4-1.4Event V:NewConstructionandRenovationNew Lamp& BallastPurchaseEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec100.5210.1755.531.162.3-10.08-50

### Table 8.5.9 and Table 8.5.10 present the findings of the LCC and PBP analyses on the 4-

foot 40W T12 medium bipin ba seline GSFL in the resident ial sector for consumers who experience a lamp failure under average operatin g hours, preserve thei r lamps during fixture replacement, and install those lamps on a new fixture, allowing the lamps to live for their full rated lifetimes. The analysis period is 19 y ears under average operating hours. Key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity pr ices and medium-range lamp and ballast prices. See section 8.2.8 for a further description of residential-sector GSFL

consum er behavior.

Residential-sector GSFL consumers who pres erve their lamps when responding to a lamp failure experience positive LCC savings in the face of standards established at EL1 through EL3. At these standard levels, consumers experien ce Event IA (Lamp Failure: Lamp Replacement)

and select a 4-foot 34W T12 me dium bipin lamp that allows the attainment of positive LCC savings under average operating hours as well as under high operating hours. DOE recognizes

that not all consumers can use a 4-foot 34W T 12 medium bipin lamp on a residential magnetic low power factor ballast because no t all ballasts are designated to operate this lamp. However, in

its review of manufacturer lite rature, DOE identified several low power factor residential magnetic ballasts that are designated to operate the 34W T12 lamp. Therefore, DOE considers this event applicable for some residential consumers.

In the face of standards established at EL4 or EL5, DOE assumes that residential-sector consumers will experience Event IB (Lamp & Ballast Replacement). At EL4 and EL5, consumers must purchase a 4-foot T8 medium bi pin system as T12 lamps do not meet these ELs. DOE assumes that a consumer purchases only a lamp in the base case and a lamp-and-ballast system in the standards case for Event IB. Both base-case and standards-case consumers preserve their lamps during ballast replacements in the middle of the analysis period. The ability of lamp-preserving consumers to obtain positive LCC savings in response to Event IB when utilizing average operating hours de pends on how much fixture life is remaining at the beginning of the analysis period, as shown in Table 8.5.9 . Consumers with less remaining fixture life can obtain greater LCC savings when responding to Event IB. DOE’s analysis indicates that

consum ers must have less than seven years of fixture life remaining in order to obtain positive LCC savings for at least one system option at EL4 or EL5, as shown in Table 8.5.10

.

8-51Table 8.5.7 LCC Savings Results at Various Remaining Fixture Lives for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium BipinSystem Operating in the Residential Sector Using Average Operating Hours and Lamp Preservation BehaviorLCC Savings (2008$)Remaining Fixture Life (years)EventEfficacyLevel13691215EL 1LLLLLLLLLLLLEL 2LLLLLLLLLLLLIA: Lamp Repl.EL 34.784.784.784.784.784.78EL 418.69 to 27.0610.06 to 18.43-0.14 to 8.23-8.69 to -0.33-16.62 to -8.26-24.02 to -15.65IB: Lamp &Ballast Repl.EL 520.98 to 22.6212.35 to 13.992.15 to 3.79-6.40 to -4.77-14.33 to -12.70-21.72 to -20.098-528-53Table 8.5.8 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 40WT12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the ResidentialSector Using Average Operating Hours and Lamp Preservation Behavior With Seven Years of Remaining Fixture Life at theBeginning of the Analysis PeriodEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline76.841 W T12 & 0.68 BF Mag115.610.004.130.00N/A0.0A: LampReplacementEL391.234 W T12 & 0.66 BF Mag110.834.7812.940.899.9-5.3EL180.541 W T12 & 0.65 BF Elec127.77-12.1652.971.0745.60.3EL182.434 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec128.89-13.2849.040.7162.97.5EL182.941 W T12 & 0.65 BF Elec130.00-14.3956.191.0748.62.3EL285.334 W T12 & 0.75 BF Elec116.98-1.3753.911.9625.30.7EL286.232.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec119.21-3.6050.511.6428.31.1EL287.841 W T12 & 0.65 BF Elec130.18-14.5656.391.0748.88.6EL391.234 W T12 & 0.66 BF Mag137.12-21.5160.190.8962.8-5.3EL391.234 W T12 & 0.75 BF Elec118.32-2.7056.121.9626.57.6EL390.832.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec118.73-3.1252.661.8226.64.5EL492.332.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec118.68-3.0752.961.8226.89.9EL493.830.4 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec116.77-1.1553.552.0424.33.4EL493.026.6 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec110.315.3056.152.6419.7-5.7EL595.432.5 W T8 & 0.71 BF Elec116.38-0.7754.042.0724.16.4Event I: LampFailureB: Lamp andBallastReplacementEL596.028.4 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec114.750.8653.132.1822.52.7

### Table 8.5.9 and Table 8.5.10 present a summary of the resi d ential-sector LCC results for the 4-foot 40W T12 medium bipi n baseline GSFL assuming that consumers do not preserve their lamps during fixture replacements. Only the most relevant events are shown. As discussed above, an EL at or above EL4 would induce th e replacement of T12 ma gnetic ballasts with electronic T8 ballasts, as no 4-foot 40W or 34 W T12 medium bipin lamps can meet these ELs. There are design options with positive LCC savings at all ELs for Event III. No positive LCC savings are possible under lamp failure events Event IA and Event IB for consumers who do not preserve their lamps.

8-548-55 

### Table 8.5.9 Summary of the LCC Results fo r a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the Residential Sector Using High Operating Hours

LCC Savings Installed Price
2008$ 2008$

Baseline Efficacy Level Event IA: Lamp Replacement* Event IB: Lamp

and Ballast Replacement* Event IA: Lamp Replacement Event IB: Lamp and

Ballast Replacement

Baseline N/A N/A 4.13 4.13

EL1 LL EN/A LL EN/A

EL2 LL EN/A LL EN/A

EL3 -5.53 EN/A 12.94 EN/A

EL4 NR -4.13 to -2.04 NR 52.96 to 56.15 40 Watt T12

EL5 NR -3.52 to -2.87 NR 53.13 to 54.04 *Analysis period is 2.6 years. N/A: Not Applicable; LL: Available Options Produce Less Light; EN/A: Event Not Applicable; NR: No Replacement



### Table 8.5.10 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 40W T12 Medium Bipin System Operating in the Residential Se ctor Using Average Operating Hours

LCC Savings Installed Price
2008$ 2008$ Baseline Efficacy Level

Event III: Ballast Failure* Event III: Ballast Failure

Baseline N/A 51.38

EL1 7.03 to 10.25 49.04 to 56.19

EL2 6.82 to 19.17 50.51 to 56.39

EL3 1.06 to 18.86 52.66 to 60.19

EL4 18.57 to 24.36 52.96 to 56.15 40 Watt T12

EL5 20.21 to 22.32 53.13 to 54.04 *Analysis period is 15.0 years. N/A: Not Applicable

### 8.5.1.2 Product Class: 4-foot T5 mi niature bipin high output ≤ 4,500K

Table 8.5.11 presents the results for an electronica lly ballasted 4-foot T5 m iniature bipin HO baseline system operating in the commercial sector . For this baseline, the analysis period is 3.9 years. Other key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices and medium-range lamp and ballast prices . DOE analyzes multiple lamp substitutions with each lamp substitution corresponding to the efficacy level requirement.

Negative LCC savings exist for Events I and III. For these events, the standards case 4- foot T5 miniature bipin high out put lamps do not save enough ener gy to offset their increased installed price. However, positive LCC savings exist for Event V. For this event, consumers can change the physical layout of their system in order to matc h the mean lumen output of the baseline system. Because the 4-foot T5 mini ature bipin HO baseline halophosphor lamps have such poor lumen maintenance compared to th e 800-series lamps LCC savings for the new construction event are high. In this event, the se lection of a reduced watt age 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO lamp gives the mo st positive LCC savings. Table 8.5.12 shows a summary table of

LCC results for the 4-foot T5 m i niature bipin HO baseline system.

8-56Table 8.5.11 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 54W T5Miniature Bipin High OutputSystem Operating in theCommercial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline76.653.8 W T5 & 1 BF Elec150.890.0010.840.00N/A0.0Event I: LampFailureA: LampReplacementEL198.051 W T5 & 1 BF Elec153.92-3.0320.611.079.259.4BaselineBaseline76.653.8 W T5 & 1 BF Elec183.680.0071.690.00N/A0.0Event III:Ballast FailureLamp andBallastReplacementEL198.051 W T5 & 1 BF Elec186.71-3.0381.471.079.259.4BaselineBaseline76.653.8 W T5 & 1 BF Elec184.970.0074.090.00N/A0.0EL192.953.8 W T5 & 1 BF Elec119.2865.6979.3115.900.00.0Event V: NewConstructionandRenovationNew Lamp &BallastPurchaseEL198.051 W T5 & 1 BF Elec117.9167.0683.8716.570.00.0Table 8.5.12 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 54W T5 Miniature Bipin High Output System Operatingin the Commercial SectorLCC SavingsInstalled Price2008$2008$BaselineEfficacyLevelEvent IA:LampReplacement*Event V: NewConstruction/Renovation*Event IA:LampReplacementEvent V: NewConstruction/RenovationBaselineN/AN/A10.8474.0954 WattT5EL1-3.0365.69 to 67.0620.6179.31 to 83.87*Analysis period is 3.9 years.N/A: Not Applicable; NER:No Energy-Saving Replacement8-57

### 8.5.1.3 Product Class: 4-foot T5 mini ature bipin standard output ≤ 4,500K

Table 8.5.13 presents the results for an electronica lly ballasted 4-foot T5 m iniature bipin standard output baseline system operating in the commercial sect or. The analysis period is 5.5 years. Other key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices and medium-range lamp and ballast prices. DOE analyzes multiple lamp substitutions with each lamp substitution corresponding to EL efficacy level requirements.

Positive LCC savings exist at all of the ELs analyzed for all events. For Event V, consumers can change the physical layout of thei r system in order to match the mean lumen output of the baseline system. Because the 4-f oot T5 miniature bipin SO baseline halophosphor lamps have such poor lumen maintenance compared to the 800-series lamps, LCC savings for the new construction event are high. For Events III and V, the selection of a reduced wattage 4- foot T5 miniature bipin SO lamp gives the most positive LCC savings. Table 8.5.14 shows a summary table of LCC results for the 4-foot T5 m iniature bipin standard output baseline system.

8-58Table 8.5.13 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 28W T5Miniature Bipin Standard Output System Operating inthe Commercial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline86.027.8 W T5 & 1.15 BF Elec113.470.009.750.00N/A0.0Event I:Lamp FailureA: LampReplacementEL2111.526 W T5 & 1.15 BF Elec112.371.1015.441.055.458.9BaselineBaseline86.027.8 W T5 & 1.15 BF Elec148.720.0069.470.00N/A0.0EL1104.327.8 W T5 & 0.95 BF Elec138.839.9073.383.081.331.3EL2109.727.8 W T5 & 0.9 BF Elec137.6611.0775.673.851.635.5Event III:BallastFailureLamp &BallastReplacementEL2111.526 W T5 & 0.9 BF Elec128.5020.2275.165.321.124.4BaselineBaseline86.027.8 W T5 & 1.15 BF Elec150.140.0071.870.00N/A0.0EL1104.327.8 W T5 & 0.95 BF Elec106.8443.3075.787.830.00.0EL2109.727.8 W T5 & 0.9 BF Elec102.6547.4978.068.870.00.0Event V: NewConstructionandRenovationNew Lamp &BallastPurchaseEL2111.526 W T5 & 0.9 BF Elec104.4745.6777.568.780.00.0Table 8.5.14 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 4-Foot 28W T5 Miniature Bipin Standard Output SystemOperating in the Commercial SectorLCC SavingsInstalled Price2008$2008$BaselineEfficacyLevelEvent IA:LampReplacement*Event V: NewConstruction/Renovation*Event IA:LampReplacementEvent V: NewConstruction/RenovationBaselineN/AN/A9.7571.87EL1NER43.3013.6675.7828 WattT5EL21.1045.67 to 47.4915.4477.56 to 78.06*Analysis period is 5.5 years.N/A: Not Applicable; NER:No Energy-Saving Replacement8-59

### 8.5.1.4 Product Class: 8-Foot single pin slimline ≤ 4,500K

For the 8-foot single pin slimline ≤ 4,500K product class, DOE is analyzing three baseline lamps: 75W T12, 60W T12, and 59W T8. For each baseline lam p, DOE analyzes multiple lamp substitutions with each lamp substitution corres ponding to the efficacy level requirements.

Table 8.5.15 presents the findings of the LCC and PBP analyses on the first baseline 8- foot single pin slim line GSFL. This table presen ts the LCC and PBP results for the 8-foot 75W T12 single pin slimline baseline lamp operating in the commercial sector. Key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices, an analysis period of 4 years, and medium-range lamp and ballast prices.

The results for Event IA show that the L CC of the baseline 8-f oot 75W T12 single pin slimline lamp on a magnetic ballast is higher than the LCC of the 60W T12 on a magnetic ballast that meets EL3. Any EL above EL3 for this baseline would require a lamp-and-ballast replacement. As discussed in the engineering analysis (Chapter 5), al though a 8-foot 60W T12 single pin slimline lamp is often considered a reduced-wattage repla cement of the 75W T12 lamp, there are no lamp options with a CCT of 4,100K that emit enough lumens to fall within 10 percent of the baseline system lumens. Show n below is the highest-efficacy 4,100K, 8-foot 60W T12 single pin slimline lamp replacement. The system light output of this lamp-and-ballast design is 13 percent less than th at of the baseline system. No te that any standard level beyond EL3 would likely require consumers to replace their 8-foot T12 single pin slimline lamps and ballasts with T8 systems, since no T12 lamp cu rrently meets the efficacy requirements of EL4

and EL5.

The results for Event II show that consum ers who replace a func tioning 8-foot 75W T12 single pin slimline lamp on a magnetic ballast with a high efficacy T8 lamp that meets EL5 on an

electronic ballast benefit from lower LCCs at EL5 while incurring an incremental installed price of $82.01 per system. The EL4 lamp available in this event does not produce sufficient light output, so DOE assumes that at standard le vel EL4, 8-foot 75W T12 single pin slimline

consumers would retrofit to the EL5 59W T8 and 0.88 ballast factor ballast. All ELs greater than EL3 can only be met by replacing the baseline ballast.

Event III represents consumers who are alr eady faced with replacing both a lamp and a

ballast. The baseline ballast for this event is assumed to be an electr onic T12, since the ballast

standards from the 2000 Ballast Rule and EP ACT 2005 would be effective in 2010. In the standards case, 8-foot 75W T12 single pin sl imline consumers can purchase more-efficacious 75W T12 lamps and lower-ballast-factor ballasts at EL1 and EL2. However, these systems do not save enough energy over their lif etimes to offset their increased installed price. The systems at EL3 and EL4 do not produce sufficient lumen out put in comparison to th e baseline system, so DOE assumes that 8foot 75W T12 single pin slimline consumers encountering ballast failures would purchase the EL5 59W T8 and 0.88 ballast factor ballast in th e face of standard levels EL3 and EL4. At standard levels EL4 and EL5, only T8 systems are available. At EL5, 8-foot 75W T12 single pin slimline consumers can achieve positive LCC savings by purchasing the T8

system.

8-608-61 

### For Event IV, the ballast retrofit event, the baseline is assumed to be an electronically ballasted T8 system. Only one replacement la mp system option (at EL5) can match the lumen output of the baseline system for Event IV . This option gives positive LCC savings.Table 8.5.15 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot75W T12 Single Pin SlimlineSystem Operating in theCommercial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperating CostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumens fromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline85.675 W T12 & 0.94 BF Mag197.660.0016.790.00N/A0.0A: LampReplacementEL397.560.5 W T12 & 0.88 BF Mag161.0936.5720.1910.420.3-13.1Baseline85.675 W T12 & 0.94 BF Mag197.660.0016.790.00N/A0.0EL187.375 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec211.15-13.4998.998.469.7-5.7EL292.075 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec207.01-9.35100.978.469.9-2.5EL394.860.1 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec226.14-28.48114.122.6337.09.0Event I:LampFailureB: Lamp &BallastReplacementEL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec177.8019.8696.4014.715.4-8.1BaselineBaseline85.675 W T12 & 0.94 BF Mag188.570.0016.790.00N/A0.0EL187.375 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec212.23-23.66101.398.4610.0-5.7EL292.075 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec208.09-19.53103.368.4610.2-2.5EL394.860.1 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec227.22-38.66116.522.6337.99.0Event II:StandardsInducedRetrofitLamp &BallastReplacementEL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec178.889.6898.8014.715.6-8.1BaselineBaseline85.675 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec206.230.0092.370.00N/A-6.4EL187.375 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec211.15-4.9198.990.986.8-5.7EL292.075 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec207.01-0.78100.970.988.8-2.5Event III:BallastFailureLamp &BallastReplacementEL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec177.8028.4396.407.220.6-8.1BaselineBaseline/EL394.860.1 W T8 & 1.18 BF Elec227.220.00116.520.00N/A9.0Event IV:BallastRetrofitLamp &BallastReplacementEL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec178.8848.3498.8012.080.0-8.18-62

### Table 8.5.16 presents the findings of LCC and PBP analyses on a second baseline 8-foot single pin slim line GSFL. This table presents the LCC and PBP results for the 8-foot 60W T12 single pin slimline baseline lamp operating in the commercial sector. Key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices, an analysis period of 4 years, and medium-range lamp and ballast prices.

Because consumers of 8-foot 60W T12 singl e pin slimline lamps do not have access to any energy-saving T12 replacement lamps in respons e to a lamp failure, Ev ent IA is not shown. However, at EL1, EL2, and EL3, consumers could still purchase more-efficacious 8-foot 60W T12 single pin slimline lamps for their magnetic ballast. Although these T12 lamps do not save energy, the installed price increase of purch asing these lamps ranges from $4.86 to $8.42.

Event II represents consumers who respond to higher lamp standards by retrofitting a functioning 8-foot 60W T12 single pin slimline system with a new lamp and ballast that save energy. For example, to save energy at EL2 a nd EL3, consumers of 8-fo ot 60W T12 single pin slimline lamps can choose to retrof it to T12 or T8 systems with el ectronic ballasts. 8-foot 60W T12 single pin slimline consumers cannot achieve positive LCC savings with any of the systems

available for a standards-induced retrofit at a ny EL, although they would save energy. Standard

levels EL4 and EL5 also force 8-foot T12 la mps single pin slimline lamps from the market, requiring consumers to retrofit to T8 systems a nd incur installed price increases of at least
$80.69.

Event III represents consumers who are alr eady faced with replacing both a lamp and a

ballast. The baseline ballast for this event is assumed to be an electr onic T12, since the ballast

standards from the 2000 Ballast Rule and EPACT 2005 would be effective in 2010. At standard levels EL2 and EL3, consumers could purchase more-efficacious 8-foot60W T12 single pin slimline lamps and lower-ballast-factor electronic ballasts when faced with a ballast failure. However, consumers cannot save enough energy with these systems to achieve positive LCC savings. Instead, they can pur chase the 8-foot T8 single pi n slimline systems on electronic ballasts available at EL4 and EL5 to achieve positiv e LCC savings. In the face of standard levels EL4 and EL5, T12 systems are eliminated from th e market. Consumers can achieve the greatest positive LCC savings with a 8-foot 57W T8 single pin slimline lamp on a 0.78 ballast factor electronic ballast at EL5, while consumers purch asing the 8-foot 59W T8 single pin slimline lamp on a 0.78 ballast factor electronic ballast at EL4 achieve the least positive LCC savings.

Three replacement lamp system options exist in response to Event IV. For this event, consumers obtain the most positive LCC savings at EL5 with an electroni cally ballasted 8-foot 57W T8 single pin slimline lamp system.

8-63Table 8.5.16 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot60W T12 Single Pin SlimlineSystem Operating in theCommercial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRated LampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline/EL187.660.5 W T12 & 0.88 BF Mag155.940.0011.770.00N/A0.0EL292.660.5 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec175.00-19.0692.226.1913.06.7EL397.560.5 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec174.10-18.1795.776.1913.613.5EL394.860.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec174.16-18.2290.074.2918.210.0EL498.260.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec165.00-9.0694.628.3210.03.2EL5101.857 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec162.16-6.2395.027.6510.93.6Event I:LampFailureB: Lamp &BallastReplacementEL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec164.09-8.1596.408.3210.210.1BaselineBaseline/EL187.660.5 W T12 & 0.88 BF Mag149.350.0011.770.00N/A0.0EL292.660.5 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec176.08-26.7394.616.1913.46.7EL397.560.5 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec175.18-25.8398.176.1914.013.5EL394.860.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec175.24-25.8992.464.2918.810.0EL498.260.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec166.08-16.7297.018.3210.23.2EL5101.857 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec163.24-13.8997.417.6511.23.6Event II:StandardsInducedRetrofitLamp &BallastReplacementEL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec165.17-15.8198.808.3210.510.18-648-65Table 8.5.16 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot60W T12 Single Pin SlimlineSystem Operating in theCommercial Sector (continued)EventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline/EL187.660.5 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec172.270.0087.350.00N/A0.0EL292.660.5 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec175.00-2.7392.220.985.06.7EL397.560.5 W T12 & 0.85 BF Elec174.10-1.8395.770.988.613.5EL498.260.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec165.007.2894.623.112.33.2EL5101.857 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec162.1610.1195.022.443.13.6Event III:BallastFailureLamp & BallastReplacementEL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec164.098.1896.403.112.910.1BaselineBaseline/EL394.860.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec175.240.0092.460.00N/A10.0EL498.260.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec166.089.1697.014.031.13.2EL5101.857 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec163.2412.0097.413.361.53.6Event IV:BallastRetrofitLamp & BallastReplacementEL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec165.1710.0798.804.031.610.1

### Table 8.5.17 presents the findings of LCC and PBP an alyses on 8-foot single pin slim line GSFL. This table presents the LCC and PBP re sults for the 8-foot 59W T8 single pin slimline baseline lamp operating in the commercial sect or. Key inputs consist of using April 2009

AEO2009 reference case electricity prices, an analysis period of 4 years, and medium-range lamp and ballast prices.

The results for Event IA show that the L CC of the baseline 8-f oot 59W T8 single pin slimline lamp on an electronic ba llast is higher than the LCC of the 8-foot 57W or 55W T8 single pin slimline lamps on an electronic ballas t that meets EL5. Consumers purchasing these lamps achieve positive LCC savings and incur installed price increases ranging from $4.10 to $4.95. Those purchasing the 8-foot 55W T8 single pin slimline lamp achieve the greatest positive LCC savings.

Event III represents consumers who must repl ace both a lamp and a ballast in response to a ballast failure. In response to a ballast failur e, consumers of 8-foot 59W T8 single pin slimline lamps can purchase the baseline 59W T8 system at EL1 through EL3. The available system at EL4 is a 8-foot 59W T8 single pin slimline lamp on a 0.85 ballast factor electronic ballast, and consumers purchasing this system would achieve negative LCC savings. At EL5, 8-foot 59W T8 single pin slimline consumers could purchase 59 W, 57W, or 55W T8 systems on electronic ballasts and achieve positive L CC savings. Those purchasing th e 8-foot 55W T8 single pin slimline system would achieve the greatest pos itive LCC savings, while those purchasing the 57W T8 system would achieve the least positive LCC savings. Results are identical for Event V.

Table 8.5.18 summarizes the range of results for the 8-foot single pin slim line product class. Only the most relevant events under each baseline lamp are shown.

8-66Table 8.5.17 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot 59W T8Single Pin Slimline SystemOperating in the CommercialSectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline/EL394.860.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec139.520.0013.230.00N/A0.0EL5101.857 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec133.076.4518.181.732.96.2Event I:LampFailureA: LampReplacementEL5103.655 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec129.2410.2817.333.521.25.6BaselineBaseline/EL394.860.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec174.160.0090.070.00N/A0.0EL498.260.1 W T8 & 0.85 BF Elec174.60-0.4494.621.213.82.2EL5101.857 W T8 & 0.85 BF Elec166.048.1295.022.222.22.6EL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec164.0910.0796.404.031.60.1Event III:BallastFailureLamp &BallastReplacementEL5103.655 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec163.8810.2894.173.521.25.6BaselineBaseline/EL394.860.1 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec175.240.0092.460.00N/A0.0EL498.260.1 W T8 & 0.85 BF Elec175.68-0.4497.011.213.82.2EL5101.857 W T8 & 0.85 BF Elec167.128.1297.412.222.22.6EL5101.560.1 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec165.1710.0798.804.031.60.1Event V:NewConstructionandRenovationNew Lamp& BallastPurchaseEL5103.655 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec164.9610.2896.563.521.25.68-67

### Table 8.5.18 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline System Operating in the Commercial Sector

LCC Savings Installed Price
2008$ 2008$BaselineEfficacy Level

Event IA: Lamp Replacement* Event II:

StandardsInduced Retrofit (Lamp

and Ballast Replacement)* Event III:

Ballast Failure*† Event IA: Lamp Replacement Event II:

StandardsInduced

Retrofit (Lamp and

Ballast Replacement) Event III:

Ballast Failure†

Baseline N/A N/A N/A 16.79 16.79 92.37

EL1 LL EN/A -4.91 LL EN/A 98.99

EL2 LL EN/A -0.78 LL EN/A 100.97

EL3 36.57 EN/A LL 20.19 EN/A LL

EL4 NR LL LL NR LL LL75 Watt T12

EL5 NR 9.68 28.43 NR 98.80 96.40

Baseline N/A N/A N/A 11.77 11.77 87.35

EL1 BAE BAE BAE BAE BAE BAE

EL2 NER -26.73 -2.73 16.63 94.61 92.22

EL3 NER -25.89 to -25.83 -1.83 13.23 to

20.19 92.46 to 98.17 95.77

EL4 NR -16.72 7.28 NR 97.01 94.6260 Watt T12

EL5 NR -15.81 to -13.89 8.18 to

10.11 NR 97.41 to 98.80 95.02 to

96.40

Baseline N/A EN/A N/A 13.23 EN/A 90.07

EL1 BAE EN/A BAE BAE EN/A BAE

EL2 BAE EN/A BAE BAE EN/A BAE

EL3 BAE EN/A BAE BAE EN/A BAE

EL4 NER EN/A -0.44 NER EN/A 94.6259 Watt T8

EL5 6.45 to 10.28 EN/A 8.12 to

10.28 17.33 to

18.18 EN/A 94.17 to

96.40 †For 59-Watt T8 baseline, includes Even t V (New Construction and Renovation). *Analysis period is 4.0 years. N/A: Not Applicable; NER: No En ergy-Saving Replacement; LL: Availabl e Options Produce Less Light; EN/A: Event Not Applicable; BAE: Baseline Above Efficacy Level; NR: No Replacement

8-68

### 8.5.1.5 Product Class: 8-foot recessed double contact HO ≤ 4,500K

For the 8-foot recessed double contact HO ≤ 4,500K product class, DOE analyzed two baseline lamps: a 110W T12 and a 95W T12. Each lamp was analyzed at five efficacy levels.

Table 8.5.19 presents the findings of LCC a nd PBP analyses on the 8-foot recessed double contact HO GSFL. This table presents th e LCC and PBP results for the 8-foot 110W T12 recessed double contact HO baseline lamp operating in the industrial sector. Key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices, an analysis period of 2.3 years, and medium-range lamp and ballast prices.

Consumers who own 8-foot 110W T12 reces sed double contact HO lamps faced with a lamp failure (Event IA) would be expected to purchase 110W T12 baseline lamps for their magnetic ballast in the base case. The avai lable replacement lamps at EL1 and EL2 do not produce sufficient light output in comparison to the baseline system , so DOE assumes that 8-foot

110W T12 recessed double contact HO consumers would purchase the reduced-wattage (95W) T12 lamp options at EL3 when faced with st andard levels EL1 and EL2. Consumers could achieve positive LCC savings with these lamps while incurring installed price increases of
$13.13 or $13.38.

Standard levels EL4 and EL5 eliminate 8- foot T12 recessed d ouble contact HO lamps from the market, requiring consumers to retrofit th eir systems to T8 systems in the face of a lamp failure (Event II). The available 8-foot T8 recessed double contact HO system at EL4 does not produce sufficient light in comparison with the ba seline system, so DOE assumes that at EL4, consumers would instead purchase the 86W T8 sy stem and 0.88 ballast fact or electronic ballast at EL5. Eight-foot 110W T12 recessed double c ontact HO consumers purchasing this system could achieve positive LCC savings while incu rring an installed pr ice increase of $110.87.

In the face of a ballast failure (Event III), 8-foot 110W T12 recessed double contact HO consumers would be expected to purchase the 110W T12 baseline lamp and a 0.95 ballast factor magnetic ballast in the base case. Consum ers who own 8-foot 110W T12 recessed double contact HO systems can purchase replacement syst ems that comply with EL1, EL3, or EL5 and achieve positive LCC savings. The available sy stems at EL2 and EL4 do not produce sufficient light, so DOE assumes that in the face of standa rd levels EL2 or EL4, consumers would purchase systems meeting higher standard levels. At EL1, 8-foot 110W T12 recessed double contact HO consumers could purchase a 110W T12 lamp on an el ectronic ballast but w ould achieve the least positive LCC savings. At EL3, consumers coul d purchase reduced-wattage (95W) lamps on a magnetic ballast or on an electronic ballast. Consumers could achieve the most positive LCC savings of any EL by purchasing the 8-foot 86W T8 recessed doubl e contact HO system

available at EL5. Standard levels EL4 and EL5 would eliminate 8-foot T12 recessed double contact HO systems from the market, making the 86W T8 system the only available option.

Event V represents consumers who are renov ating an existing building or constructing a new building. Consumers in this scenario can change the spacing of the 8-foot T8 recessed double contact HO system to achieve the same lumens as the baseline T12 system. In this scenario, the lowest LCC occurs at EL3 with an 8-foot 95W T12 recessed double contact HO

8-698-70 

### lamp and 0.9 BF electronic ballast. This syst em provides negative LCC savings. The EL2 95W T12 and 0.91 BF magnetic ballast also pr ovides negative LCC savings at Event V.Table 8.5.19 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot 110WT12 Recessed Double Contact HO System Operating in theIndustrial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline80.1113 W T12 & 0.95 BF Mag192.870.0020.510.00N/A0.0EL387.697 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag181.4711.4033.6412.081.1-10.0A: LampReplacementEL388.997 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag182.1210.7534.2912.081.1-8.9EL183.2113 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec210.18-17.32117.6011.248.6-1.6EL387.697 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag208.21-15.35114.4912.087.8-10.0EL388.997 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag208.86-16.00115.1412.087.8-8.9EL388.997 W T12 & 0.9 BF Elec197.74-4.88119.4018.255.4-9.9Event I:Lamp FailureB: Lamp &BallastReplacementEL595.386 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec168.0124.86128.9927.364.0-11.3BaselineBaseline80.1113 W T12 & 0.95 BF Mag181.870.0020.510.00N/A0.0EL183.2113 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec210.98-29.10120.0011.248.9-1.6EL387.697 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag209.00-27.13116.8912.088.0-10.0EL388.997 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag209.65-27.78117.5412.088.0-8.9EL388.997 W T12 & 0.9 BF Elec198.54-16.67121.8018.255.5-9.9Event II:StandardsInducedRetrofitLamp &BallastReplacementEL595.386 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec168.8013.07131.3827.364.1-11.38-718-72Table 8.5.19 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot 110WT12 Recessed Double Contact HO System Operating in theIndustrial Sector (continued)EventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline80.1113 W T12 & 0.95 BF Mag219.610.00101.360.00N/A0.0EL183.2113 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec210.189.43117.6011.241.4-1.6EL387.697 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag208.2111.40114.4912.081.1-10.0EL388.997 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag208.8610.75115.1412.081.1-8.9EL388.997 W T12 & 0.9 BF Elec197.7421.86119.4018.251.0-9.9Event III:Ballast FailureLamp &BallastReplacementEL595.386 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec168.0151.60128.9927.361.0-11.3BaselineBaseline80.1113 W T12 & 0.95 BF Mag220.400.00103.760.00N/A0.0EL183.2113 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec210.989.43120.0011.241.4-1.6EL286.197 W T12 & 0.9 BF Elec211.748.66108.348.752.30.0EL286.197 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag222.00-1.59104.092.605.40.0EL387.697 W T12 & 0.9 BF Elec222.40-2.00121.1510.083.20.0EL387.697 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag209.0011.40116.8912.081.1-10.0EL388.997 W T12 & 0.9 BF Elec198.5421.86121.8018.251.0-9.9EL388.997 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag209.6510.75117.5412.081.1-8.9EL491.986 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec202.3718.04128.0313.814.00.0EL493.086 W T8 & 0.81 BF Elec212.547.87128.3813.035.10.0Event V: NewConstructionandRenovationNew Lamp &BallastPurchaseEL595.386 W T8 & 0.81 BF Elec198.7821.62131.3818.503.10.0

### Table 8.5.20 presents the findings of LCC a nd PBP analyses on 8-foot recessed double contact high-output GSFL. This table presen ts the LCC and PBP results for the 8-foot 95W T12 recessed double contact HO baseline lamp operating in the industrial sector. Key inputs consist of using April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices, an analysis period of 2.3 years, and medium-range lamp and ballast prices.

When faced with a lamp failu re (Event IA), consumers of the 8-foot 95W T12 recessed double contact HO baseline lamp would be expected to purchase the 95W T12 baseline for their magnetic ballast in the base case. This lamp also complies with EL1. None of the lamps available at EL1 through EL3, when in combinat ion with the magnetic ballast save energy as compared to the baseline system. Therefore, re sults for this event ar e not shown. However, consumers can purchase these lamps and incur installed price increa ses ranging from $6.37 to
$19.83.

Consumers of the 8-foot 95W T12 rece ssed double contact HO baseline lamp could instead retrofit their systems to save energy (Event II). The EL1 system available for retrofit does not produce sufficient light output, and cons umers could not achieve positive LCC savings with any of the system options available for re trofit at EL2 through EL4. None of the systems available in response to this event will provide positive LCC savings to consumers. Standard

levels EL4 and EL5 would eliminate 8-foot T12 recessed double contact HO lamps from the market, thereby forcing consumers of the 8-f oot 95W T12 recessed double contact HO baseline lamp to retrofit to T8 systems wh en faced with a lamp failure a nd incur installed price increases ranging from $113.57 to $116.92.

When faced with a ballast failure, consumer s of 8-foot 95W T12 recessed double contact HO lamps could purchase a 95W T12 baseline lamp on a magnetic ballast in the base case. Consumers purchasing a higher-efficacy 8-foot 95WT12 recessed double contact HO lamp at EL2 on an electronic ballast achieve positive LCC savings. Consumers purchasing the T12 systems at EL3 achieve negative LCC savings. St andard levels EL4 and EL5 would eliminate 8- foot T12 recessed double contact HO systems from the market, making the EL4 and EL5 8-foot 86W recessed double contact HO T8 systems the only available options for consumers faced with a ballast failure. Those who purchase th e 8-foot 86W T8 recessed double contact HO systems at EL4 or EL5 can achieve positive LCC savings.

Event V represents consumers who are renova ting an existing building or constructing a new building. Consumers in this scenario can change the spacing of the 8-foot T8 recessed double contact HO system to achieve the same lumens as the baseline T12 system. In this scenario, the lowest LCC occurs at EL3 and is negative.

8-73Table 8.5.20 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot 95W T12 Recessed Double Contact HO System Operating in theIndustrial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline82.597 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag162.290.0014.460.00N/A0.0EL286.197 W T12 & 0.89 BF Elec181.17-18.88105.957.7111.95.8EL387.697 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec190.84-28.56118.759.2511.36.4EL388.997 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec191.49-29.20119.409.2511.37.8EL491.986 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec162.61-0.32125.6415.287.3-1.2EL493.086 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec165.89-3.60125.9815.287.30.2Event I: LampFailureB: Lamp &BallastReplacementEL595.386 W T8 & 0.81 BF Elec161.510.77128.9918.486.2-0.1BaselineBaseline82.597 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag154.330.0014.460.00N/A0.0EL286.197 W T12 & 0.89 BF Elec181.96-27.63108.347.7112.25.8EL387.697 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec191.64-37.30121.159.2511.56.4EL388.997 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec192.29-37.95121.809.2511.67.8EL491.986 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec163.40-9.07128.0315.287.4-1.2EL493.086 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec166.68-12.35128.3815.287.50.2Event II:StandardsInducedRetrofitLamp & BallastReplacementEL595.386 W T8 & 0.81 BF Elec162.31-7.97131.3818.486.3-0.18-748-75Table 8.5.20 LCC and PBP Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot 95W T12 Recessed Double Contact HO System Operating in theIndustrial Sector (continued)EventResponseEfficacy LevelRatedLampEfficacyDesign OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline82.597 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag189.030.0095.310.00N/A0.0EL286.197 W T12 & 0.89 BF Elec181.177.87105.957.711.45.8EL387.697 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec190.84-1.81118.759.252.56.4EL388.997 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec191.49-2.46119.409.252.67.8EL491.986 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec162.6126.42125.6415.282.0-1.2EL493.086 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec165.8923.14125.9815.282.00.2Event III:Ballast FailureLamp &BallastReplacementEL595.386 W T8 & 0.81 BF Elec161.5127.52128.9918.481.8-0.1BaselineBaseline82.597 W T12 & 0.91 BF Mag189.820.0097.710.00N/A0.0EL286.197 W T12 & 0.89 BF Elec181.967.87108.347.711.45.8EL387.697 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec191.64-1.81121.159.252.56.4EL388.997 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec192.29-2.46121.809.252.67.8EL491.986 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec163.4026.42128.0315.282.0-1.2EL493.086 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec166.6823.14128.3815.282.00.2Event V: NewConstructionandRenovationNew Lamp &BallastPurchaseEL595.386 W T8 & 0.81 BF Elec162.3127.52131.3818.481.8-0.1

### Table 8.5.21 summarizes the range of results fo r the 8-foot recessed double contact HO product class. Only the most relev ant events under each baseline lamp are shown. An EL at or above EL3 would induce the replacement of T12 el ectronic ballasts with el ectronic T8 ballasts,

as no 8-foot 95W or 110W r ecessed double contact HO T12 lamps meet these ELs. This migration may result in negative LCC savings for consumers who would not otherwise replace their T12 electronic system.

8-76

### Table 8.5.21 Summary of the LCC Results for a Two-Lamp 8-Foot Recessed DoubleContact HO System Operating in the Industrial Sector

LCC Savings Installed Price
2008$ 2008$BaselineEfficacy Level

Event I: Lamp Replacement* Event II:

StandardsInduced Retrofit (Lamp

and Ballast Replacement)* Event III:

Ballast

Failure* Event I: Lamp Replacement Event II:

StandardsInduced

Retrofit (Lamp and

Ballast Replacement) Event III:

Ballast

Failure

Baseline N/A N/A N/A 20.51 20.51 101.36

EL1 LL EN/A 9.43 LL EN/A 117.60

EL2 LL EN/A LL LL EN/A LL

EL3 10.75 to

11.40 EN/A 10.75 to

21.86 33.64 to

34.29 EN/A 114.49 to

119.40

EL4 NR LL LL NR LL LL110 Watt T12

EL5 NR 13.07 51.60 NR 131.38 128.99

Baseline N/A N/A N/A 14.46 14.46 95.31

EL1 BAE LL LL BAE LL LL

EL2 NER -27.63 7.87 20.83 108.34 105.95

EL3 NER -37.95 to

-37.30 -2.46 to -1.81 33.64 to

34.29 121.15 to

121.80 118.75 to

119.40

EL4 NR -12.35 to -9.07 23.14 to

26.42 NR 128.03 to

128.38 125.64 to

125.9895 Watt T12

EL5 NR -7.97 27.52 NR 131.38 128.99 *Analysis period is 2.3 years. N/A: Not Applicable; NER: No En ergy-Saving Replacement; LL: Availabl e Options Produce Less Light; EN/A: Event Not Applicable; BAE: Baseline Above Efficacy Level; NR: No Replacement

8-77

### 8.5.2 Life-Cycle Cost Results for Incandescent Reflector Lamps
The following tables present the findings of the L CC and PBP analyses on standardspectrum IRL. Table 8.5.22 provides the LCC and PBP results for a 90W PAR38 lamp operating in the comm ercial sector. These results are based on the April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices, an analysis period of 0.9 years in the commercial sector and 3.4 years in the residential sector, and medium-range lamp prices.

Table 8.5.22 , Table 8.5.24 , and Table 8.5.26 provide the LCC and PBP results for a 90W PAR38, 75W PAR38, a nd 50W PAR30 lamp operati ng in the commercial sector. These results are based on the April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity pri ces, an analysis period of 0.9 years, and medium-range lamp prices.

Table 8.5.23 , Table 8.5.25 , and Table 8.5.27 provides the LCC and PBP results for a

90W PAR38, 75W PAR38, and 50W PAR30 lamp operating in the residential sector. These results are based on the April 2009 AEO2009 reference case electricity prices, an analysis period of 3.4 years, and medium-range lamp prices.

In general, the majority of efficacy levels result in positive LCC savings in spite of the higher installed prices of the st andards-case lamps in comparison with the baseline lamps. At EL1, in all but the residential 90W PAR38 lume n package, consumers would achieve negative LCC savings when purchasing the improved ha logen (xenon) lamp. Maximum LCC savings

would be achieved at EL5 for the 90W and 75 W lumen packages in both the commercial and residential sectors when a consumer purchases a normal-life improved halogen infrared (HIR) plus lamp. For the 50W baseline, the EL4 and EL5 replacement lamps are 40W lamps, as this is the lowest-wattage IRL covered by standards. Because the EL4 lamps consume the same amount of energy as the EL5 lamps but have lo wer prices, consumers can achieve greater LCC savings by purchasing the EL4 lamps instead of the EL5 lamps. In general, the lamps with the highest LCC savings are more e fficacious and have longer lifetimes than the baseline lamps.

8-78Table 8.5.22 LCC and PBP Results for a 90W PAR38 Lamp Operating in the Commercial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelLampEfficacyLamp OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline14.690W, 14.6lm/W & 2500hrs,Halogen33.330.006.440.00N/A0.0EL115.385.7W, 15.3lm/W &2500hrs, Improved Halogen(Xenon)33.45-0.127.411.270.80.0EL215.982.5W, 15.9lm/W &6000hrs, Long Life HIR27.216.128.062.210.70.0EL216.679W, 16.6lm/W & 3000hrs,Improved Halogen (Silver)29.613.727.883.240.40.0EL318.070W, 18lm/W & 3000hrs,HIR27.316.018.065.890.3-3.8EL419.866W, 19.8lm/W & 2500hrs,Improved HIR30.722.619.437.060.40.0EL419.866W, 19.8lm/W & 4000hrs,Improved HIR25.387.959.437.060.40.0EL521.060W, 21lm/W & 2500hrs,Improved HIR Plus29.074.269.438.830.3-3.8Event I: LampFailure; or EventV: NewConstructionand RenovationLampReplacement orNew LampPurchaseEL521.060W, 21lm/W & 4200hrs,Improved HIR Plus24.189.1410.028.830.4-3.88-79Table 8.5.23 LCC and PBP Results for a 90W PAR38Lamp Operating in the Residential SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelLampEfficacyLamp OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline14.690W, 14.6lm/W & 2500hrs,Halogen34.530.005.330.00N/A0.0EL115.385.7W, 15.3lm/W &2500hrs, Improved Halogen(Xenon)34.390.146.310.432.30.0EL215.982.5W, 15.9lm/W &6000hrs, Long Life HIR29.594.946.960.752.20.0EL216.679W, 16.6lm/W & 3000hrs,Improved Halogen (Silver)31.343.196.781.101.30.0EL318.070W, 18lm/W & 3000hrs,HIR28.725.816.962.010.8-3.8EL419.866W, 19.8lm/W & 2500hrs,Improved HIR30.753.788.332.411.20.0EL419.866W, 19.8lm/W & 4000hrs,Improved HIR27.087.458.332.411.20.0EL521.060W, 21lm/W & 2500hrs,Improved HIR Plus28.885.658.333.011.0-3.8Event I: LampFailure; or EventV: NewConstructionand RenovationLampReplacement orNew LampPurchaseEL521.060W, 21lm/W & 4200hrs,Improved HIR Plus25.439.108.923.011.2-3.88-80Table 8.5.24 LCC and PBP Results for a 75W PAR38 Lamp Operating in the Commercial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelLampEfficacyLamp OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline14.075W, 14lm/W & 2500hrs,Halogen29.200.006.440.00N/A0.0EL114.671.7W, 14.6lm/W &2500hrs, Improved Halogen(Xenon)29.60-0.407.410.971.00.0EL215.368.8W, 15.3lm/W &6000hrs, Long Life HIR23.445.768.061.820.90.0EL215.966W, 15.9lm/W & 3000hrs,Improved Halogen (Silver)26.033.177.882.650.50.0EL317.560W, 17.5lm/W & 3000hrs,HIR24.564.648.064.410.40.0EL419.155W, 19.1lm/W & 2500hrs,Improved HIR27.691.519.435.890.50.0EL419.155W, 19.1lm/W & 4000hrs,Improved HIR22.356.859.435.890.50.0EL520.351.7W, 20.3lm/W &2500hrs, Improved HIR Plus26.792.429.436.860.40.0Event I: LampFailure; or EventV: NewConstructionand RenovationLampReplacement orNew LampPurchaseEL520.351.7W, 20.3lm/W &4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus21.907.3010.026.860.50.08-818-82Table 8.5.25 LCC and PBP Results for a 75W PAR38Lamp Operating in the Residential SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelLampEfficacyLamp OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline14.075W, 14lm/W & 2500hrs,Halogen29.860.005.330.00N/A0.0EL114.671.7W, 14.6lm/W &2500hrs, Improved Halogen(Xenon)30.04-0.176.310.333.00.0EL215.368.8W, 15.3lm/W &6000hrs, Long Life HIR25.334.546.960.622.60.0EL215.966W, 15.9lm/W & 3000hrs,Improved Halogen (Silver)27.292.576.780.901.60.0EL317.560W, 17.5lm/W & 3000hrs,HIR25.614.256.961.501.10.0EL419.155W, 19.1lm/W & 2500hrs,Improved HIR27.332.548.332.011.50.0EL419.155W, 19.1lm/W & 4000hrs,Improved HIR23.666.208.332.011.50.0EL520.351.7W, 20.3lm/W &2500hrs, Improved HIR Plus26.303.568.332.341.30.0Event I: LampFailure; or EventV: NewConstructionand RenovationLampReplacement orNew LampPurchaseEL520.351.7W, 20.3lm/W &4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus22.857.018.922.341.50.0Table 8.5.26 LCC and PBP Results for a 50W PAR30 Lamp Operating in the Commercial SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelLampEfficacyLamp OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline12.650W, 12.6lm/W & 3000hrs,Halogen19.560.005.810.00N/A0.0EL113.247.8W, 13.2lm/W &3000hrs, Improved Halogen(Xenon)19.93-0.376.780.651.50.0EL213.546W, 13.5lm/W & 6000hrs,Long Life HIR16.812.747.431.181.4-1.6EL214.045W, 14lm/W & 3000hrs,Improved Halogen (Silver)19.62-0.077.251.471.00.0EL315.141.8W, 15.1lm/W &3000hrs, HIR18.930.637.432.410.70.0EL417.040W, 17lm/W & 3000hrs,Improved HIR19.80-0.258.802.941.07.9EL417.040W, 17lm/W & 4000hrs,Improved HIR17.751.818.802.941.07.9EL519.140W, 19.1lm/W & 2500hrs,Improved HIR Plus22.73-3.178.802.941.021.4Event I: LampFailure; or EventV: NewConstructionand RenovationLampReplacement orNew LampPurchaseEL519.140W, 19.1lm/W & 4200hrs,Improved HIR Plus18.201.369.392.941.221.48-838-84Table 8.5.27 LCC and PBP Results for a 50W PAR30Lamp Operating in the Residential SectorEventResponseEfficacy LevelLampEfficacyLamp OptionLCCLCC SavingsInstalledPriceOperatingCostSavings(StartYear)PaybackPeriod% MeanLumensfromBaselinelms/W$$$$yrs%BaselineBaseline12.650W, 12.6lm/W & 3000hrs,Halogen20.250.004.700.00N/A0.0EL113.247.8W, 13.2lm/W &3000hrs, Improved Halogen(Xenon)20.54-0.295.680.224.40.0EL213.546W, 13.5lm/W & 6000hrs,Long Life HIR17.882.366.330.404.1-1.6EL214.045W, 14lm/W & 3000hrs,Improved Halogen (Silver)20.140.116.150.502.90.0EL315.141.8W, 15.1lm/W &3000hrs, HIR19.320.926.330.822.00.0EL417.040W, 17lm/W & 3000hrs,Improved HIR20.130.117.701.003.07.9EL417.040W, 17lm/W & 4000hrs,Improved HIR18.501.757.701.003.07.9EL519.140W, 19.1lm/W & 2500hrs,Improved HIR Plus21.89-1.647.701.003.021.4Event I: LampFailure; or EventV: NewConstructionand RenovationLampReplacement orNew LampPurchaseEL519.140W, 19.1lm/W & 4200hrs,Improved HIR Plus18.731.518.291.003.621.4

### 8.6 DETAILED RESULTS AND SENSITIVITY RUNS

DOE presents m ore detailed results and sens itivity runs from the LCC analysis in Appendix 8B. These results include Monte Ca rlo probability distributions, price sensitivity scenarios, and operating hour sensitivity scenarios.

8-858-86 

### REFERENCES

i 

### U.S. Department of Energy

, 

### Energy Information Administration. RECS Public Use Microdata files, calendar year 2005 . 2009. Washington, D.C. <http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/recspubuse05/pubuse05.html>

ii 

### U.S. Department of Energy

, 

### Energy Information Administrati on. Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey: Micro-level data, file 2 Bu ilding Activities, Special Measures of Size, and Multi-building Facilities . 2003. Washington, D.C.

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/e meu/cbecs/public_use.html 

### >

iii 

### U.S. Department of Energy

, 

### Energy Information Administ ration. Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, Table 1.4: Number of Es tablishments by First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel). 2002. Washington, D.C.

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs /mecs2002/data02/shelltables.html 

### >

iv 

### U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products : Final Report: U.S. Lighting Market Characterization, Volume I: National Lighting Inventory and Energy Consumption Estimate. 2002. Washington, D.C.

< www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/info/documents/pdfs/lmc_vol1_final.pdf 

### >

v 

### Fuller, Sieglinde K. and Stephen R. Peterson. National Institute of Standards and Technology Handbook 135, 1996 Edition. Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program. Prepared for U. S. Department of Energy. Federal Energy Management Program. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Conservati on and Renewable Energy. February 1996. Washington, D.C. http://fire.nist.gov/fi re/firedocs/build96/PDF/b96121.pdf

vi 

### U.S. Department of Energy. Energy Informati on Administration. An Updated Annual Energy

Outlook 2009 Reference Case Refl ecting Provisions of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act and Recent Changes in the Ec onomic Outlook. April, 2009. Washington, D.C. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/index.html.

vii 

### U.S. Department of Energy

. 

### Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

. 

### Office of Building

Research and Standards. T echnical Support Document: Ener gy Efficiency Standards for Consumer Products: Fluorescent Lamps Ballast Proposed Rule. Appendix A. Engineering Analysis Supporting Documentation. January 2000. Washington, D.C. http://www.eere.energy.gov/build ings/appliance_standards/residential/pdfs/appendix_a.pdf

.

viii 

### R. S. Means Company, Inc. 2007 RS Means Electrical Cost Data . 2007. R. S. Means Company, Inc. Kingston, Massachusetts.8-87 ix 

### National Fire Protection Association. Onlin e Access to National Electrical Code® Softbound 2005 Edition (NFPA 70TM). 2005. Quincy, MA. http://www.nfpa.org/freecodes/free_access_agreement.asp?id=7005SB

.

x 

### U.S. Department of Labor. Bureau of La bor Statistics. May 2005 Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates. National Cross-Indus try Estimates. 2005. Washington, D.C. http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm

.

xi 

### U.S. Department of Energy

. 

### Energy Information Administra tion. Form EIA-861 for 2007. 2007. Washington, D.C. http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/eia861.htm l

.

xii 

### U.S. Department of Energy. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030. March, 2009. Washington, D.C. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html

.

xiii 

### GDS Associates, Inc., Engineers and Consultants, Measure Life Report: Residential and

Commercial/Industrial Li ghting and HVAC Measures (The New England State Program Working Group)(2007).

xiv 

### Economic Research Associates, Inc., and Quan tec, LLC. Revised/Updated EULs Based On

Retention And Persistence Studies Re sults. Southern California Edison, 2005.

xv 

### Environment, Health and Safety Online. EH SO's Fluorescent Lights and Lighting Disposal and Recycling Web Page – Recycling Costs (Las t Accessed December 8, 2008) . Atlanta, GA.

Available at < http://www.ehso.com/fluoresc.php >.

xvi 

### Association of Lighting a nd Mercury Recyclers. National Mercury-Lamp Recycling Rate and Availability of Lamp Recyc ling Services in the U.S. Calistoga, CA. November 2004.

xvii 

### Economic Research Associates, Inc., and Quan tec, LLC. Revised/Updated EULs Based On

Retention And Persistence Studies Re sults. Southern California Edison, 2005.

xviii 

### The Federal Reserve Board, Survey of Consumer Finances 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001,
2004, 2007 . < http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/oss/oss2/scfindex.html >

xix 

### The Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Statistical Release, Selected Interest Rates, Historical Data, Instrument: CDs (secondary mar ket), Maturity: 6-month, Frequency: Annual, Description: Average rate on 6-month negotiabl e certificates of deposit (secondary market), quoted on an investment basis, 2009. (Last accessed 2/25/09,

< http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H15/data.htm >

xx 

### The Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Statistical Release, Selected Interest Rates,
Historical Data, Instrument: State and local bonds, Maturity: 20-year, Frequency: Monthly,8-88 

### Description: Bond buyer go 20-bond municipal bond index, 2009. (Last accessed 2/25/09,

< http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H15/data.htm >

xxi 

### The Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Statistical Release, Selected Interest Rates, Historical Data, Instrument: Corporate bonds/Moody's Seasoned AAA, Frequency: Annual, Description: Moody's yield on seasoned corporate bonds - all industries, AAA, 2009. (Last accessed 2/25/09, < http://www.federalreserve .gov/releases /H15/data.htm >

xxii 

### Mortgage-X - Mortgage Information Service, Cost of Savings Index (COSI) Index History,

2009. (Last accessed February 25, 2009.) < http://mortgage-x.com/general/indexes/default.asp >

xxiii 

### Damodaran Online Data Page, Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills-United States,

2009. Damodaran. (Last accessed February 25, 2009.) < http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ >

xxiv 

### Modigliani, F. and M. Miller. The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of

Investment. American Economic Review . 1958. (June): pp. 261-297.

xxv 

### Ibbotson’s Associates. Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation, Valuation Edition, 2001

Yearbook

. 2001.

xxvi 

### Damodaran, A. Damodaran Online. Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills - United

States. http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar

.

xxvii 

### Damodaran, A. Damodaran Online. Current US data. http://pages.ster n.nyu.edu/~adamodar

.

xxviii 

### U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 1.1.9 Implicit Price

Deflators for Gross Domestic Product. 2008. http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaw eb/SelectTable.asp? Selected=N

.

xxix 

### Value Line. Value Line Investment Survey. 2007. http://www.valueline.com

.

xxx 

### U.S. Office of Management and Budg et. Circular No. A-94. Appendix C. 2008. http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/ci rculars/a094/a94_appx- c.htm l

.

xxxi 

### Federal Reserve Board. Statistics: Releases and Historical Data - Selected Interest Rates –

State and Local Bonds. 2008. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releas es/h15/data/Monthly/H 15_SL_Y20.txt