1 

### Technical Memorandum 

## Development of MANE - VU Mobile Source Projection Inventories for SMOKE/MOBILE6 Application

Jun e 2006 , NESCAUM I. Background The MANE - VU Emissions Inventory work group chose to utilize in - house expertise to develop future ye ar mobile source emission estimates for use in Ozone, PM 2.5 , and Regional Haze SIP modeling. Jung - Hun Woo, NESCAUM, and Megan Schuster, MARAMA compiled all the information necessary

to run Mobile6 with Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emiss ions (SMOKE) based on the state submitted data. The purpose of this document is to describe how member states and NESCAUM/MARAMA prepared the mobile source activity data (i.e. non - link based VMT & Speed), Mobile6 scenario input files, and accompan yi ng file s in SMOKE/MOBILE6 format in support of future year projection inventory development. 

### II. Procedure 2.1. Base year (Y2002) inventory file The MANE - VU 2002 base y ear SMOKE/M6 - ready mobile source files served as a starting point for projection inventory development ; hence, the procedures employed for the development of these files are summarized here. E.H P echan, a contractor for MANE - VU , compiled MANE VU 2002 mobile source inventories. The onroad emissions inventory was compiled from data supplied by the MANE - VU State agencies in the form of onroad emissions input data or emissions inventories either directly to MANE - VU or to EPA through their CERR submittal. States provided information in one or more of the following way s: (1) an onroad emission inv entory submittal to EPA, (2) MOBILE6 inputs and VMT data in National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) format to EPA, (3) portions of MOBILE6 inputs or full MOBILE6 input files and supporting files plus VMT to EPA, or (4) portions of MOBILE6 inputs or full MOB ILE6 input files and supporting files plus VMT to MANE - VU. Different procedures were followed in developing the MANE - VU 2002 onroad emission inventory depending upon how the data were submitted. All States provided information on 2002 onroad activity in the form of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) estimates, although the level of detail of the VMT data varied by State. After integration of all these data , Pechan compiled onroad mobile source files in a SMOKE/Mobile6 read y format. 2.2. Preparing technical gui dance to create SMOKE/Mobile6 ready information As describ e d above, States ha d the a bilit y and experience to develop their mobile source inventory data in NMIM, stand - alone Mobile6, and emissions inventory format . They , however,2

we re not familiar with pro cedures for integrating files and converting them into a model ready format. To assist the State workgroup in the creation of an inventory in ( as close as possible to ) the SMOKE/Mobile6

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ready format , NESCAUM/MARAMA developed a technical guidance document ( http://www.marama.org/visibility /Inventory%20Summary

/FutureEmissionsInventory .htm ) . In the document, w e also explained how State workgroup could download the ye ar 2002 files ( ftp.marama.org ) and update them to create projection inventory files . In the technical guidance, States were requested to supply NESCAUM and MARAMA with the data described below, under Required Data. States also had the option to supply NESCAUM and MARAMA with the information listed under Optional Data. REQUIRED DATA: 1) SMOKE/ID A Activity File a. Go to MARAMA FTP site (above), click on O nroad/ Final Smoke Files/ MANEVU_2002_mbinv.txt b. Open the MANEVU_2 002_mbinv.txt file c. Delete all data that is not your state’s. d. Update file with new header and annual VMT b y SCC for 2009 e. Name file: state_2009_mbinv.txt f. Repeat steps ‘b’ through ‘e’ for years 2012 and 2018 2) MOBILE6 input scenario files a. Go to MARAMA ftp s ite, click on MANE - VU Onroad/ Final Smoke Files/ MANEVU_2002_SMOKE_M6_InputFiles_12032004.zip /m6_2002/month/statecounty .in b. Provide updated statecounty .in files for each month and year 2009, 2012 and 2018 c. Use same naming convention as the 2002 files

– statecount y.in OPTIONAL DATA : 1) If a state wants to, they can u pdate registration data to either 2004 or 2005 a. Go to MARAMA FTP site - Onroad/ Final Smoke Fi les /MANEVU_2002_SMOKE_M6_ExternalFiles.zip b. As an example, open file 0900002.reg (or any files with extension .reg) c. There is a long header followed by the real data . Real data starts at the line called REG DI ST. (See example file below). d. States should update the registration data b y vehicle class and age for 2004 or 2005. e. If you update this data and ch ange the name of the file, make sure the M6 input scenario file (required data from above) includes the correct file name for registration data (REG DIST).3

2.3. States data submittal and compiling future inventory As States submitted their projected mobile source files as list ed above, NESCAUM starte d to integrate Y2018 files and convert them into regional (i.e. MANE - VU) files. T he following subsections summarize the compilation process for activity input, scenario input files, external files and othe r SMOKE related files. 1) Activity

input data (VMT/Speed)

- All member states submitted VMT and speed data. There we re minor issues in data formatting but nothing major.

- DE and MA re - submit VMT file at October, 2005 (MA change 2002 VMT, too)

- Merge up date 2002 MBINV file, ptpro/ptref, scenario input files for CT and NJ 2 ) Scenario input files

- VT use d the same input file for all the counties. So , only 36 input files ( i.e. 12months * 3 future ye ars) were provided. VT set 050001 as a reference county (M CREF) .

- VT uses January as reference month for August processing. VT has confirm that they want to change reference month for Apr - Sep as July instead of January .

- ME submitted all monthly data in a file . NESCAUM split it by month.

- MA submitted only

thr ee input files (Avg Summer day , Ty p Ozon day , Avg Winter day) which w ere submitted to PECHAN to develop base year input file s . NESCAUM create d *.in files by copying MANE - VU 2002 base - ye ar *.in files, then chang e ye ars into 2009/2012/2018 and the link to th e new external files (LEV2CERT.D, LEV2EVAP.D, LEV2EXH.D).

- CT submitted *.I

N files on 9/22/2005. The “ > I/M DESC ” file path had been removed .

- RIscenario input files have 044yyc.I N name convention that are supposed to be 044ccc. IN (yy stands for 2digit y ear and ccc stands for 3digit count y FIPS) . They are renamed and populated for 12months.

- Some states(MD) put "REBUILT EFFECTS" after “SCENARIO RECORD” line. They were moved ahead of it .

- PA put “ ANTI - Tamp ” records in external files that need to be in Sc enario input files. NESCAUM wrote a F o rtran code (pa_input_4_override.f) and a C - shell script(cp_antitamp_4_pa.csh) to put those records in scenario input files

- NJ has 2012 y ear tag in 2009 scenario input file s . NESCAUM put them back to 2009.

- For 2002 scenario input files update (10/27/2006) , CT puts 0.07 Rebuild effect, NJ didn't put any . So, I put 0.1 to NJ 2002 input files.

- Putting future ye ar rebuild effect is a modeling decision that needs to be a constant throughout the region. So NESCAUM didn ’ t correct that in file compilation. Modelers ’ put 10% for the base ye ar (2002) and 90% for the future ye ars(2009/2012/2018). NYSDEC put 0.9 into year 2009 files and NESCAUM put 0.9 into year 2018 files before SMOKE/Mobile6 processing. 3) External files

- VT uses some of NY state external files (e.g. NYLEV2.D, NYL2EXH.D, NYL2EVAP.D, and NYL2CERT.D)

- RIdidn't provide any

future - specific external files. 2002 MANE - VU M6 external files were used4

- MA and ME used the same named files which have identical co ntents to each other : LEV2CERT.D, LEV2EVAP.D, and LEV2EXH.D

- DE , PA, and NJ submitted the same named files which have identical contents to each other : NLEVNE.D

- DC file produce warnings (but not errors) from SMOKE/Mobile6 test run “User Supplied HC IM240 Cutpoint of 0.500 for y ear 1 and Vehicle Ty pe 1 is Too L ow and has been Reset to 0.80 g/mi . ” Consulted with DC and get a confirm that it’s ok to use it as - is. 4) Other SMOKE related files

- MCREF /MVREF Update MANEVU_2002_mcref.txt for M aine because Penobscot count y (23019) was not found from MAINE_pointerfile.xls. Tammy Gould @ Maine confirmed that Penobscot (019) has to be added where Piscataquis (021) is. Correct this problem on both MANEVU_2018_mcref.txt and MAINE_pointerfile.xls. MAN EVU_2018_mvref.txt is updated b y deleting non - ref counties in ME.

- MTPRO/MTREF Add CT and NJ's temporal profile/x - ref to 2018 MANEVU files 

### III. Sample model run Even though NESCAUM had not run SMOKE/Mobile6 for an y of the complete projection ye ars , we ran a day

worth of each y ear: 1) to test compatibility of compiled data with SMOKE/Mobile6 sy stem and 2) to examine trends in submitted projection data . As seen in the F igure 1 and Figure 2 , VMT increases 10~ 2 0% compared to the base year (i.e. year 2002) for the most of states whereas speed remains the same except for NY and PA .

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

C onnec ti cu t D el aware D ist ri ct of C ol umb ia M ai ne M ar yl and M ass ac hu se tt s N ew Ham ps hir e N ew Jer sey N ew Yor k P en ns yl va ni a R hod e Isl an d V er mon tMillionsVMT

VM T_ 02 VM T_

09 VMT_

12 VMT_

185 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

C on ne cti cu t D ela wa re Dis tr ict of C ol um bi a M ain e Ma ry lan d Ma ssa ch us et ts N ew Ha mps hi re N ew J er se y N ew Y or k Pe nn sy lvan ia R ho de I sla nd V er mo ntThousandsSpeed

SPD _0 2 SPD

_0 9 SPD

_1 2 SPD

_1 8 Figure 1. VMT(upper) and Speed (lower) for one day (August 1) of y ear 2002, 2009, 2012, and 2018

0

20 0 40 0 60 0 80 0 10 00 120 0

Conn ec ti cu t Delawa re Dist ri ct o f Co lum bi a Ma ine Ma ry land Ma ssa chu se tts Ne w Ha mps hir e Ne w Je rse y Ne w Yo rk Pe nn sy lva ni a Rh ode I sla nd Ve rm ontTPD

NO x_ 02 NO x_ 09 NO x_ 12 NO x_ 186 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Co nne cti cu t De law are Dis tric t of C ol um bi a Ma ine Ma ry land Ma ssac hu sett s Ne w H am ps hi re Ne w J er sey New Y or k Pen nsy lv ania Rh od e Is land Ve rm on tTPD

CO _02 CO_09 CO_1 2 CO _18 Figure 2. NOx(upper) and CO (lower) emissions for one day (August 1) of ye ar 2002, 2009, 2012, and 2018 Despite VMT increase s , NO x and CO emissions decrease dramatically due to future - ye ar control programs . Emissions decrease a bit more slowly after 20 09 given fewer anticipated controls during post - 20 09 ye ars. NOx r eductions seen from Figure 2 can be verified in the spatial (by county) NOx emission maps which were calculated using SMOKE/Mobile6 for August 1 of each year. As region wide emissions decreased b y years, emissions from high emission areas (e.g. urban cente rs) decreased, as well .7

Figure 3. Spatial d istribution of e missions from SMOKE/Mobile6 ( August 1, NOx)