## DRAFT

MEMORANDUM Subject: Projection of annual renewable fuel supply in 2015

From: David Korotney , U.S. EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality

To: EPA Air Docket EPA

- HQ

- OAR

- 201 5

- 0111

In order to establish the applicable volume requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for 2015 by November 30, 2015, the deadline under a consent decree entered into by the EPA on April 10, 2015, we must estimate the total supply of rene wable fuel for the full year based on actual supply for part of the year

. 1 

## In this context, supply means renewable fuel for which RINs were generated and which was actually consumed as transportation fuel, heating oil, or jet fuel in the continental U.S. plus Hawaii. The primary source of data on actual supply of qualifying renewable fuel is the EPA

- Moderated Transaction System (EMTS), which includes both RINs generated for domestic renewable fuel production and imports, and RINs retired for reasons other than for compliance with the applicable percentage standards or for compliance with an exporter's obligation

. RINs that represent renewable fuel actually consumed as transportation fuel, heating oil, or jet fuel are the net result of RINs generated minus RINs retired

. Exporters of renewable fuel are required to retire RINs representing the exported renewable fuel to ensure that the only RINs available for compliance with the percentage standards are those that represent renewable fuel actually consumed in the U.S. However, data in EMTS on RINs retired for exports of renewable fuel is not required to be recorded immediately upon export, but can be delayed up to 30 days. In order to accur at ely align RINs generated with exports of renewable fuel by month , therefore, we used export data from the Census Bureau as a surrogate for RINs retired to represent exported renewable fuel. RIN generation and retirement data from EMTS was available for January through September, while data on exports of renewable fuel from the Census Bureau was available for January through August. In estimating total supply for 2015, we are not including potential growth that could occur in the last 3

- 4 months of the year under the influence of the RFS volume requirements. The 2015 volume requirements will not be established until November 30, 2015, and the market will have essentially no time to respond to those final volume requirements. Instead, we are estimating the supply that is most likely to occur in the last 3

- 4 months of 2015 in the absence of applicable 2015 volume requirements. To do this, in general we assume d that the monthly average supply in the last 3

- 4 months of 2015 is the same as the monthly supply in the first 8

- 9 months of 2015. However, we also examine d monthly supply in 2013 and 2014 to determine if there is a trend towards higher or lower monthly supply in the last 3

- 4 months of those years, as compared to the first 8

- 9 months of those years. If there does appear to be a trend, we used this

1 

### See American Fuel and Petrochemical Manuf. et al v. EPA (No. 15

- cv

- 394, D.D.C.)

. The consent decree also requires that EPA respond by November 30, 2015 to the plaintiffs’ pet ition seeking a waiver in part of the 2014 statutory volume targets.

## DRAFT

information to adjust the monthly supply for the last 3

- 4 months of 2015 up or down as appropriate in comparison to monthly supply in the first 8

- 9 months of 2015.

Overview

 Actual 2015 data was available as follows:
o January through September for RIN generation (from EM TS)
o January through August for renewable fuel exports (from Census Bureau)

 Adjustments were made to 2015 RIN generation to account for spills, enforcement actions, fuel used in non

- transportation activities, etc. using RIN retirements from 2014
o Since RIN r etirements are often recorded in EMTS many months after the events occur, using 2015 RIN retirements from EMTS would very likely have underestimated actual retirements of 2015 RINs

 T o estimate RIN generation and exports for the remaining months of 2015 , we examined data from 2013 and 2014 to determine if the monthly average at the end of the year might be expected to differ from the monthly average at the beginning of the year

 This process was used for biomass

- based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renew able fuel (cellulosic biofuel for 2015 was projected separately . See Section IV.E of final rule )

Table 1

 Actual 2015 RIN generation data for both domestic production and imported renewable fuel for January through September from EMTS

 Estimation of RIN generation for October through December is covered in Tables 4, 5, and 8

Table s 2 and 3

 Actual export data for ethanol and biodiesel from Census Bureau
o Conversion factor of 0.301 gallons biodiesel per kilogram is derived from biodiesel exports as reporte d by EIA
o All exported ethanol was assumed to be D6
o All exported biodiesel is assumed to be D4

 Ratio of monthly average for September through December to monthly average for January through August shows whether there is an upward or downward trend in monthl y averages at the end of the year

Table 4

 Actual 2013 and 2014 RIN generation data for both domestic production and imported renewable fuel from EMTS

 Ratio of monthly average for October through December to monthly average for January through September shows whether there is an upward or downward trend in monthly averages at the end of the year

## DRAFT

Table 5

 Determination of factors used to extrapolate 2015 actual RIN generation and exports through the end of 2015

 Each factor represents a ratio of monthly averages:
o For RIN generation, ratio represents October through December to January through September
o For e xports, ratio represents September through December to January through August

 Factors for RIN generation are derived from Table 4

 Factors for exports are derived from Table 3

 Factors are used in Table 8 (for RIN generation) and Table 9 (for exports) to determine volumes for the full 2015 calendar year

Table 6

 A review of historical RIN retirements in EMTS for purposes other than for compliance with the applicable % standards indicates that many RINs are retired long after they are generated
o Some 2011 RINs were retired in 2013
o Some 2012 RINs were retired in 2015
o See list of all reasons that RIN s may be retired in Table 7

 This strongly suggests that many 2015 RINs will be retired in 2016 and later

 Since the actual number of 2015 RINs retired in January throu gh September of 2015 is likely to be considerably less than the total number that will eventually be retired, we used actual 2014 RIN retirements as a surrogate for expected 2015 RIN retirements
o See Table 7 for 2014 RIN retirements

Table 7

 Details of retirements for 2014 RINs

 Since compliance demonstrations for 2014 have not yet been made, RINs retired for annual compliance were ignored

 EMTS records RIN retirements by D code only, not by fuel type

 Estimates of RIN retirements by fuel type were based on a review of comment fields in EMTS for RINs retired under the category "Renewable fuel used or designated to be used in any application that is not transportation fuel, heating oil, or jet fuel"

Table 8

 Determination of 2015 RIN generation for the full cal endar year
o Adjustment factors are from Table 5
o Monthly averages for January through September are from Table 1
o Monthly average Oct

- Dec = (Adjustment factor) × (Monthly average Jan

- Sept)
o Annual estimate = 9 × (monthly average Jan

- Sept) + 3 × (monthly average Oct

- Dec)

## DRAFT

Table 9

 Determination of 2015 exports for the full calendar year
o Adjustment factors are from Table 5
o Monthly averages for January through August are from Table 3
o Monthly average Sept

- Dec = (Adjustment factor) × (Monthly average Jan

- Aug)
o Annual estimate = 8 × (monthly average Jan

- Aug) + 4 × (monthly average Sept

- Dec)

Table 10

 Projected supply of RINs in calendar year 2015

Table 11

 Projected supply of volume in calendar year 2015

### 2015 - Table 1

Domestic RIN generation Total Monthly average

D code Fuel type January February March April May June July August September Jan - Sept Jan - Sept

4 Biodiesel 83,820,702 94,254,357 138,558,203 159,741,399 182,297,711 196,381,872 193,761,954 188,403,778 176,353,089 1,413,573,065 157,063,674 4 Renewable diesel 29,444,324 22,217,898 26,135,365 25,734,613 26,122,397 23,539,075 25,529,130 24,880,813 22,853,326 226,456,941 25,161,882 5 Biogas 0 189 0 68 1,429 0 1,868 1,429 39 5,022 558 5 Ethanol 2,406,832 1,708,936 2,032,746 1,820,525 1,951,230 2,144,244 2,197,184 2,370,536 2,033,261 18,665,494 2,073,944 5 Heating oil 60,421 88,161 67,398 51,618 51,299 38,991 65,292 38,424 43,099 504,703 56,078 5 Naphtha 2,600,076 1,941,197 1,643,529 1,821,514 2,214,592 1,680,246 2,295,854 2,278,425 2,081,355 18,556,788 2,061,865 5 Renewable diesel 282,285 664,188 1,192,455 948,725 579,818 924,880 809,509 756,561 629,597 6,788,018 754,224 6 Biodiesel 0 17,789 0 17,072 0 0 0 14,662 0 49,523 5,503 6 Ethanol 1,192,587,629 1,077,437,272 1,199,952,678 1,155,724,868 1,198,423,122 1,238,216,060 1,226,858,998 1,206,351,485 1,178,105,629 10,673,657,741 1,185,961,971 6 Renewable diesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Imports RIN generation Total Monthly average D code Fuel type January February March April May June July August September Jan - Sept Jan - Sept

4 Biodiesel 12,939,678 7,537,654 12,810,838 18,106,955 21,629,983 24,950,696 55,588,656 46,012,184 32,757,650 232,334,294 25,814,922 4 Renewable diesel 16,829,167 14,041,562 14,076,417 18,298,288 31,725,875 25,948,882 19,546,781 25,140,042 14,496,610 180,103,624 20,011,514 5 Biogas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Ethanol 0 0 0 10,702,691 0 0 0 15,377,300 19,853,081 45,933,072 5,103,675 5 Heating oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Naphtha 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Renewable diesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 Biodiesel 0 0 7,350,035 11,595,452 6,665,912 13,317,213 20,025,067 25,471,314 4,728,220 89,153,213 9,905,913 6 Ethanol 200,121 255,560 209,244 270,055 282,031 293,714 273,713 1,000,439 865,765 3,650,642 405,627 6 Renewable diesel 34,482,498 29,484,473 30,233,567 28,404,398 19,287,594 21,260,020 31,975,870 25,820,890 32,780,571 253,729,881 28,192,209

Domestic + imports RIN generation Total Monthly average D code Fuel type January February March April May June July August September Jan - Sept Jan - Sept

4 Biodiesel 96,760,380 101,792,011 151,369,041 177,848,354 203,927,694 221,332,568 249,350,610 234,415,962 209,110,739 1,645,907,359 182,878,595 4 Renewable diesel 46,273,491 36,259,460 40,211,782 44,032,901 57,848,272 49,487,957 45,075,911 50,020,855 37,349,936 406,560,565 45,173,396 5 Biogas 0 189 0 68 1,429 0 1,868 1,429 39 5,022 558 5 Ethanol 2,406,832 1,708,936 2,032,746 12,523,216 1,951,230 2,144,244 2,197,184 17,747,836 21,886,342 64,598,566 7,177,618 5 Heating oil 60,421 88,161 67,398 51,618 51,299 38,991 65,292 38,424 43,099 504,703 56,078 5 Naphtha 2,600,076 1,941,197 1,643,529 1,821,514 2,214,592 1,680,246 2,295,854 2,278,425 2,081,355 18,556,788 2,061,865 5 Renewable diesel 282,285 664,188 1,192,455 948,725 579,818 924,880 809,509 756,561 629,597 6,788,018 754,224 6 Biodiesel 0 17,789 7,350,035 11,612,524 6,665,912 13,317,213 20,025,067 25,485,976 4,728,220 89,202,736 9,911,415 6 Ethanol 1,192,787,750 1,077,692,832 1,200,161,922 1,155,994,923 1,198,705,153 1,238,509,774 1,227,132,711 1,207,351,924 1,178,971,394 10,677,308,383 1,186,367,598 6 Renewable diesel 34,482,498 29,484,473 30,233,567 28,404,398 19,287,594 21,260,020 31,975,870 25,820,890 32,780,571 253,729,881 28,192,209

### Table 2 - Exports of renewable fuel from Census Bureau

Biodiesel - kilograms January February March April May June July August September October November December

2013 2,303,772 5,269,838 24,822,651 52,288,022 79,366,608 82,788,963 60,446,369 96,793,842 71,980,490 58,437,634 57,486,656 67,050,121 2014 18,924,708 19,830,772 12,885,443 36,800,790 29,254,856 37,125,492 45,123,783 37,239,994 19,193,306 5,573,697 9,173,035 7,104,385 2015 3,094,784 3,298,786 26,837,393 33,797,666 35,914,785 37,028,745 35,942,276 38,684,309
Biodiesel - gallons January February March April May June July August September October November December

2013 693,435 1,586,221 7,471,618 15,738,695 23,889,349 24,919,478 18,194,357 29,134,946 21,666,127 17,589,728 17,303,483 20,182,086 2014 5,696,337 5,969,062 3,878,518 11,077,038 8,805,712 11,174,773 13,582,259 11,209,238 5,777,185 1,677,683 2,761,084 2,138,420 2015 931,530 992,935 8,078,055 10,173,097 10,810,350 11,145,652 10,818,625 11,643,977

Biodiesel - RINs January February March April May June July August September October November December

2013 1,040,153 2,379,332 11,207,427 23,608,042 35,834,024 37,379,217 27,291,536 43,702,420 32,499,191 26,384,592 25,955,225 30,273,130 2014 8,544,506 8,953,594 5,817,778 16,615,557 13,208,567 16,762,160 20,373,388 16,813,857 8,665,778 2,516,524 4,141,625 3,207,630 2015 1,397,295 1,489,402 12,117,083 15,259,646 16,215,525 16,718,478 16,227,938 17,465,966

Denatured ethanol - liters January February March April May June July August September October November December

2013 159,225,857 106,188,543 118,292,049 99,143,219 110,673,133 107,375,786 119,699,097 130,436,462 137,135,575 136,815,276 175,472,363 141,714,339 2014 132,829,333 107,720,644 144,667,303 190,373,152 150,132,344 149,405,840 173,705,621 128,439,718 144,175,676 189,305,947 92,619,388 125,823,997 2015 91,168,782 95,721,817 137,269,124 112,237,466 126,671,222 167,091,782 99,861,611 75,970,182
Denatured ethanol - gallons January February March April May June July August September October November December

2013 42,063,152 28,052,133 31,249,551 26,190,949 29,236,840 28,365,770 31,621,255 34,457,775 36,227,499 36,142,885 46,355,039 37,437,084 2014 35,089,907 28,456,872 38,217,177 50,291,423 39,660,893 39,468,970 45,888,313 33,930,290 38,087,303 50,009,496 24,467,530 33,239,287 2015 24,084,319 25,287,108 36,262,779 29,650,094 33,463,101 44,141,116 26,380,729 20,069,261

Denatured ethanol - RINs January February March April May June July August September October November December

2013 42,063,152 28,052,133 31,249,551 26,190,949 29,236,840 28,365,770 31,621,255 34,457,775 36,227,499 36,142,885 46,355,039 37,437,084 2014 35,089,907 28,456,872 38,217,177 50,291,423 39,660,893 39,468,970 45,888,313 33,930,290 38,087,303 50,009,496 24,467,530 33,239,287 2015 24,084,319 25,287,108 36,262,779 29,650,094 33,463,101 44,141,116 26,380,729 20,069,261

# Table 3 - Exports of renewable fuel from Census Bureau

Biodiesel - RINs Total Monthly average Monthly average Ratio of Sept - Dec Jan - Aug Jan - Aug Sept - Dec to Jan-Aug

2013 182,442,149 22,805,269 28,778,034 1.262 2014 107,089,406 13,386,176 4,632,889 0.346 2015 96,891,333 12,111,417

Denatured ethanol - RINs Total Monthly average Monthly average Ratio of Sept - Dec Jan - Aug Jan - Aug Sept - Dec to Jan-Aug

2013 251,237,424 31,404,678 39,040,627 1.243 2014 311,003,845 38,875,481 36,450,904 0.938 2015 239,338,507 29,917,313Table 4

2013 Domestic + imports RIN generation D code Fuel type January February March April May June July August September October November December 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 Biodiesel 108,201,745 116,379,087 165,601,562 173,618,054 193,448,338 198,331,977 202,200,933 219,090,152 207,397,523 220,968,546 208,240,928 286,811,526 4 Renewable diesel 13,342,641 5,239,282 31,953,752 16,272,719 19,064,638 31,649,014 58,585,923 56,300,024 48,867,899 53,254,710 56,152,447 48,159,899 5 Biogas 362,227 366,126 523,311 475,454 575,116 2,423,577 3,431,987 4,149,093 5,943,278 3,973,504 2,092,389 1,618,751 5 Ethanol 51,710,703 30,750,326 47,895,336 26,767,214 30,661,971 35,251,125 55,751,819 82,569,339 51,705,466 17,718,756 15,287,243 12,181,359 5 Heating oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Naphtha 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 191,847 755,816 677,388 693,552 1,148,134 5 Renewable diesel 686,300 991,130 1,180,429 1,104,869 3,103,654 9,615,657 7,407,732 10,822,957 13,384,264 13,393,775 7,514,810 966,904 6 Biodiesel 9,192 9,242 0 133,752 76,777 100,987 318,418 4,146,178 14,425,613 8,296,921 4,487,400 23,163,882 6 Ethanol 1,028,160,966 939,513,797 1,034,306,785 1,085,559,590 1,140,894,814 1,103,586,859 1,119,553,179 1,102,723,346 1,068,584,497 1,151,767,493 1,124,339,471 1,199,980,139 6 Renewable diesel 0 0 488,045 2,093 22,369,009 19,169,158 28,382,385 22,630,462 29,966,704 25,227,953 22,596,358 25,524,922

4 Total 121,544,386 121,618,369 197,555,314 189,890,773 212,512,976 229,980,991 260,786,856 275,390,176 256,265,422 274,223,256 264,393,375 334,971,425 5 Total 52,759,230 32,107,582 49,599,076 28,347,537 34,340,741 47,290,359 66,591,538 97,733,236 71,788,824 35,763,423 25,587,994 15,915,148 6 Total 1,028,170,158 939,523,039 1,034,794,830 1,085,695,435 1,163,340,600 1,122,857,004 1,148,253,982 1,129,499,986 1,112,976,814 1,185,292,367 1,151,423,229 1,248,668,943

2014 Domestic + imports RIN generation D code Fuel type January February March April May June July August September October November December 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 Biodiesel 88,017,643 110,464,334 155,851,633 163,667,512 171,974,502 178,186,111 217,261,833 202,789,961 205,415,647 204,874,924 184,943,881 269,785,029 4 Renewable diesel 49,436,471 52,098,552 62,604,566 59,467,267 58,901,525 59,681,204 64,271,939 16,917,256 9,009,383 24,139,498 42,910,334 57,198,140 5 Biogas 1,934,013 2,454,845 2,969,797 2,411,989 2,193,478 2,514,332 4,340,962 1,533,275 2,367 3,351 604 22 5 Ethanol 5,020,302 1,716,474 4,941,249 18,542,196 22,634,671 12,755,368 7,246,020 2,143,347 2,177,573 2,402,920 1,695,561 9,022,522 5 Heating oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16,162 38,949 58,773 5 Naphtha 1,348,024 1,334,459 1,510,527 1,329,732 1,406,030 1,393,164 1,597,460 175,407 1,051,551 2,384,292 2,012,858 2,597,379 5 Renewable diesel 398,238 889,583 1,255,477 1,562,152 1,294,829 1,320,737 2,353,270 830,625 1,064,210 1,432,327 882,991 1,344,089 6 Biodiesel 0 168,947 0 58,951 5,182,905 7,436,435 12,139,069 9,132,020 13,940,451 9,951,285 9,095,666 12,671,090 6 Ethanol 1,150,184,079 1,020,555,812 1,147,001,684 1,175,647,065 1,199,854,519 1,190,780,942 1,236,695,790 1,180,098,156 1,158,501,856 1,161,201,973 1,123,731,170 1,272,257,093 6 Renewable diesel 24,442,187 28,942,427 22,253,327 27,566,581 17,020,152 20,075,321 22,692,446 34,072,937 0 797,643 32,767,677 26,735,579

4 Total 137,454,114 162,562,886 218,456,199 223,134,779 230,876,027 237,867,315 281,533,772 219,707,217 214,425,030 229,014,422 227,854,215 326,983,169 5 Total 8,700,577 6,395,361 10,677,050 23,846,069 27,529,008 17,983,601 15,537,712 4,682,654 4,295,701 6,239,052 4,630,963 13,022,785 6 Total 1,174,626,266 1,049,667,186 1,169,255,011 1,203,272,597 1,222,057,576 1,218,292,698 1,271,527,305 1,223,303,113 1,172,442,307 1,171,950,901 1,165,594,513 1,311,663,762

Monthly average Monthly average Ratio of Oct-Dec Jan - Sept Oct - Dec to Jan-Sept

2013 4 Total 207,282,807 291,196,019 1.405 5 Total 53,395,347 25,755,522 0.482 6 Total 1,085,012,428 1,195,128,180 1.101

2014 4 Total 214,001,927 261,283,935 1.221 5 Total 13,294,193 7,964,267 0.599 6 Total 1,189,382,673 1,216,403,059 1.023

# Table 5 - Historical trends

Each value represents the ratio of Oct - Dec to Jan - Sept (for RIN generation) or Sept - Dec to Jan - Aug (for exports) Protocol: If 2013 and 2014 values are both above 1.0, use 2014 value

If 2013 and 2014 values are both less than 1.0, use 2014 value Otherwise use 1.0

Domestic + imports RIN generation D code Fuel type 2013 2014 Chosen value

4 Total 1.405 1.221 1.221 5 Total 0.482 0.599 0.599 6 Total 1.101 1.023 1.000

RIN exports D code Fuel type 2013 2014 Chosen value

4 Biodiesel 1.262 0.346 1.000 6 Ethanol 1.243 0.938 1.000

# Table 6

Total RIN retirements for non-compliance reasons

Calendar year 2011 RINs 2012 RINs 2013 RINs 2014 RINs

2011 29,834,802 0 0 0 2012 124,852,680 49,646,816 0 0 2013 1,615,651 42,888,002 103,124,355 0 2014 0 32,624,436 108,330,814 313,698,213 2015 (Jan - Sept) 0 9,492,255 3,743,709 66,038,525

## Table 7

2014 RIN retirements

D code 3 4 5 6 7
Demonstrate annual compliance 0 80,382,659 0 297,342,134 0
Remedial Action - Retire for Compliance 0 0 0 3,945,265 0 Contaminated or spoiled fuel 0 885,286 0 120,364 0 Delayed RIN Retire per 40CFR 80.1426(g)(3) only 0 0 0 0 0 Enforcement Obligation 0 2,184,121 0 0 0 Import volume correction 0 0 0 0 0 Invalid RIN 342,326 6,822,455 92,448 11,513,642 4,997 Remedial action - Retirement pursuant to 80.1431(c) 6,647 180,728 1,741 11,865,458 0 Remediation of Invalid RIN Use for Compliance 0 330,352 0 6,982,752 0 Renewable fuel used in an ocean-going vessel 0 0 0 0 0
Renewable fuel used or designated to be used in any application that is not transportation fuel, heating oil, or jet fuel 0 81,162,281 0 254,064,809 0 Reported spill 0 50,080 0 104,154 0 Volume error correction 0 183,093 1 2,839,592 0

Total non-compliance 348,973 91,798,396 94,190 287,490,771 4,997

Estimate of distribution of RIN retirements by fuel type Biogas 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Ethanol 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% Biodiesel 0.00% 2.90% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Renewable diesel 0.00% 97.10% 100.00% 99.71% 100.00% Heating oil 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Naphtha 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%



## 2014 RIN retirements

D code 3 4 5 6 7

Biogas 348,973 0 0 0 0 Ethanol 0 0 0 820,840 0 Biodiesel 0 2,665,096 0 11,620 0 Renewable diesel 0 89,133,291 94,190 286,658,311 4,997 Heating oil 0 0 0 0 0 Naphtha 0 0 0 0 0

# Table 8

Domestic RIN generation Monthly average Adjustment factor Monthly average D code Fuel type Jan - Sept for historical trends Oct - Dec Annual estimate

4 Biodiesel 157,063,674 1.221 191,765,633 1,988,869,963 4 Renewable diesel 25,161,882 1.221 30,721,198 318,620,536 5 Biogas 558 n/a n/a 0 5 Ethanol 2,073,944 0.599 1,242,455 22,392,860 5 Heating oil 56,078 0.599 33,595 605,489 5 Naphtha 2,061,865 0.599 1,235,219 22,262,446 5 Renewable diesel 754,224 0.599 451,840 8,143,537 6 Biodiesel 5,503 1.000 5,503 66,031 6 Ethanol 1,185,961,971 1.000 1,185,961,971 14,231,543,655 6 Renewable diesel 0 1.000 0 0
Imports RIN generation Monthly average Adjustment factor Monthly average D code Fuel type Jan - Sept for historical trends Oct - Dec Annual estimate

4 Biodiesel 25,814,922 1.221 31,518,521 326,889,858 4 Renewable diesel 20,011,514 1.221 24,432,897 253,402,316 5 Biogas 0 1.000 n/a 0 5 Ethanol 5,103,675 0.599 3,057,502 55,105,579 5 Heating oil 0 0.599 0 0 5 Naphtha 0 0.599 0 0 5 Renewable diesel 0 0.599 0 0 6 Biodiesel 9,905,913 1.000 9,905,913 118,870,951 6 Ethanol 405,627 1.000 405,627 4,867,523 6 Renewable diesel 28,192,209 1.000 28,192,209 338,306,508

# Table 9 Determination of exports for 2015

Monthly average Adjustment factor Monthly average Total Jan - Aug for historical trends Sept - Dec Jan - Dec

Biodiesel - RINs 12,111,417 1.000 12,111,417 145,336,999 Denatured ethanol - RINs 29,917,313 1.000 29,917,313 359,007,761

### Table 10 2015 supply of RINs

Generated for Generated for Total

D code Fuel type domestic production imports generation Adjustments Exports Net supply

3 Biogas 122,000,000 0 122,000,000 0 0 122,000,000 3 Ethanol 3,000,000 0 3,000,000 0 0 3,000,000 7 Heating oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Biodiesel 1,988,869,963 326,889,858 2,315,759,821 2,665,096 145,336,999 2,167,757,725 4 Renewable diesel 318,620,536 253,402,316 572,022,852 89,133,291 0 482,889,561 5 Biogas 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Ethanol 22,392,860 55,105,579 77,498,439 0 0 77,498,439 5 Heating oil 605,489 0 605,489 0 0 605,489 5 Naphtha 22,262,446 0 22,262,446 0 0 22,262,446 5 Renewable diesel 8,143,537 0 8,143,537 94,190 0 8,049,347 6 Biodiesel 66,031 118,870,951 118,936,981 11,620 0 118,925,361 6 Ethanol 14,231,543,655 4,867,523 14,236,411,177 820,840 359,007,761 13,876,582,576 6 Renewable diesel 0 338,306,508 338,306,508 286,658,311 0 51,648,197

3 & 7 Total 125,000,000 0 125,000,000 0 0 125,000,000 4 Total 2,307,490,499 580,292,174 2,887,782,672 91,798,387 145,336,999 2,650,647,286 5 Total 53,404,332 55,105,579 108,509,911 94,190 0 108,415,721 6 Total 14,231,609,685 462,044,981 14,693,654,667 287,490,771 359,007,761 14,047,156,135

All Advanced biofuel 2,485,894,831 635,397,753 3,121,292,584 91,892,577 145,336,999 2,884,063,007 All Total renewable fuel 16,717,504,516 1,097,442,734 17,814,947,250 379,383,348 504,344,761 16,931,219,142

### Table 11 2015 supply of volume

Generated for Generated for Total

D code Fuel type domestic production imports generation Adjustments Exports Net supply

3 Biogas 122,000,000 0 122,000,000 0 0 122,000,000 3 Ethanol 3,000,000 0 3,000,000 0 0 3,000,000 7 Heating oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Biodiesel 1,325,913,308 217,926,572 1,543,839,880 1,776,731 96,891,333 1,445,171,817 4 Renewable diesel 187,423,845 149,060,186 336,484,030 52,431,348 0 284,052,683 5 Biogas 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Ethanol 22,392,860 55,105,579 77,498,439 0 0 77,498,439 5 Heating oil 403,659 0 403,659 0 0 403,659 5 Naphtha 17,124,959 0 17,124,959 0 0 17,124,959 5 Renewable diesel 4,790,316 0 4,790,316 55,406 0 4,734,910 6 Biodiesel 44,020 79,247,300 79,291,321 7,747 0 79,283,574 6 Ethanol 14,231,543,655 4,867,523 14,236,411,177 820,840 359,007,761 13,876,582,576 6 Renewable diesel 0 199,003,828 199,003,828 168,622,536 0 30,381,292

3 & 7 Total 125,000,000 0 125,000,000 0 0 125,000,000 4 Total 1,513,337,153 366,986,758 1,880,323,911 54,208,078 96,891,333 1,729,224,500 5 Total 44,711,794 55,105,579 99,817,373 55,406 0 99,761,967 6 Total 14,231,587,675 283,118,651 14,514,706,326 169,451,123 359,007,761 13,986,247,443

All Advanced biofuel 1,683,048,947 422,092,337 2,105,141,284 54,263,484 96,891,333 1,953,986,467 All Total renewable fuel 15,914,636,622 705,210,988 16,619,847,610 223,714,607 455,899,094 15,940,233,910