December 7, 2015 1

Feasibility Assessment of Future Efficiency Improvement 

for Class 8 Diesel Tractor Engines

EPA

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Dr. Stephen J Charlton

Independent Consultant

December 7, 2015
December 7, 2015 2

Outline

• Overview

- Climate change

- Innovation – A lot can happen in 12 years

- HD Engine Greenhouse Gas Projections

• Summary – Findings and Recommendations

• Technology and Product Development Roadmap

- Demonstrated Performance

- Key supplier engagement

• What can be achieved with existing engine platforms?

• Impact of Engine technologies on the vehicle

• Reliability growth for advanced technologies

• Determining more stringent standards

• Concluding comments
December 7, 2015

3

Why am I here today?

Climate Change • Sea level rise: Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 

inches) in the last century. The rate in the last decade, however, is 

nearly double that of the last century.

• Warming oceans: The oceans have absorbed much of this increased 

heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing 

warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.

• Shrinking ice sheets: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have 

decreased in mass. Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 

to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006.

• Declining Arctic sea ice: Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea 

ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades.

• Glacial retreat: Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around 

the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska 

and Africa.

• Extreme events: The number of record high temperature events in 

the United States has been increasing, while the number of record 

low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950.

• Ocean acidification: Since the beginning of the Industrial 

Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by 

about 30 percent.

• Decreased snow cover: Satellite observations reveal that the 

amount of spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has 

decreased over the past five decades and that the snow is melting 

earlier.
December 7, 2015 4

Innovation – A lot can happen in 12 years

Google Self-Driving Car

Tesla Model X Electric SUV

Daimler Self-Driving Truck

2.5g NOx, 0.1g PM 0.2g NOx, 0.01g PM

92% NOx and 90% PM Reductions

2003 2015
December 7, 2015 5

2010 SCR + DPF

Innovation – A lot can happen in 12 years

2002 Dual Leg NOx Adsorber

40 CFR Parts 69, 80, and 86

2010 Final Rule

While other technologies exist that have the potential to provide significant 

emission reductions, such as selective catalytic reduction systems for NOX 

control, and development of these technologies is being pursued to varying 

degrees, we believe that the catalyzed diesel particulate trap and the NOX

adsorber will be the only likely broadly applicable technology choice by the 

makers of engines and vehicles for the national fleet in this timeframe.

2017 - The EcoFit Single 

Module is 60% smaller and 

40% lighter than current SCR 

DPF Systems
December 7, 2015 6

HD Engine Greenhouse Gas Projections

40.1%

41.4%

42.7% 43.4%

44.4% 44.6%

37%

39%

41%

43%

45%

47%

49%

51%

53%

55%

2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033

HD Tractor Engine BTE% Progression

SuperTruck Status June 2015

48% - 51.1%

NAS Phase 1 

Report

47.2% - 50.8%

GHG Phase 2

GHG Phase 1

SWRI Phase 2 Report

44.6% - 47.5%

Engine Brake Thermal Efficiency [%]

Schedule Limit Standard

[gCO2/HP-hr]

Fuel Consumption

[Gallons/100 HP-hr] BTE [%] Step Change[%]

2010 Baseline 490 4.8134 40.1% Base

2014 Phase 1a 475 4.6660 41.4% 3.06%

2017 Phase 1b - Baseline for Phase 2 460 4.5189 42.7% 3.16%

2021 Phase 2 453 4.4499 43.4% 1.52%

2024 Phase 2 443 4.3517 44.4% 2.21%

2027 Phase 2 441 4.3320 44.6% 0.45%
December 7, 2015 7

Determining the line haul engine standards
December 7, 2015 8

BSCO2 Bridge

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

SET BSCO2 Bridge 2017 - 2027

BSCO2 – g/HP-hr

441 g/HP-hr

460 g/HP-hr

390 g/HP-hr

NPRM SET BSCO2 Bridge 2017 - 2027

Turbocompound

Waste Heat Recovery

Friction / Parasitics

Aftertreatment DP

Pumping – EGR etc.

Combustion – FIE, CR

Downsizing

1.3%

4.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8%

3.0%

0.2% 2.6%

0.4% 1.1%

NOTE: All percentages are after the application of Adoption Rates and Dis-Synergy Factors – slide 31

1.1% 2.6% 4.2%
December 7, 2015 9

Findings - 1

1. NAS Report on 21CTP / SuperTruck:

“The engine systems Goal 1 of a 50% BTE for an emissions compliant engine has been achieved. Two of the four 

SuperTruck teams have successfully demonstrated BTE greater than 50% in on-road tests using commercial, ultralow-sulfur diesel fuel”, 9.11.2015

2. The NAS committee has shifted their focus to defining the pathways to a HD engine attaining 

55% BTE. All programs are pursuing:

– Improved friction and pumping

– More effective air boosting systems

– Smaller auxiliary and accessory loads

– Waste heat recovery

– Low-temperature combustion

3. The proposed rule contains very conservative standards for HD tractor engines equivalent to a 

2.1% to 3.1% reduction in GHG emissions and fuel consumption for 2027 and beyond – when 

accounting for re-weighting of the steady-state test cycle.
December 7, 2015 10

Findings - 2

4. WHR Technology is an important component of the technology package that can deliver a 15% 

or greater reduction of GHG emissions and fuel consumption by 2027 – NAS 21CTP Report, 9.11.2015:

“The 21CTP has successfully met Goal 1, to develop and demonstrate an emissions compliant diesel engine system for 

Class 7 and 8 highway trucks that achieves 50 percent brake thermal efficiency in an over-the-road cruise condition. 

The engine uses a waste heat recovery system”.

5. Advanced Combustion was eliminated from consideration ...

“since the agencies do not anticipate these technologies will be commercially available by 2027”

Given the significant research effort on advanced combustion and the progress being 

demonstrated, the agencies should allow for incremental improvements being transferred from 

this work into products released in 2021, 2024 and 2027.
December 7, 2015 11

Findings - 3

6. Downspeeding was included as a vehicle technology and allocated the CO2reduction to the 

vehicle via the GEM simulation. By so doing the stringency of the engine limit standard has 

been relaxed. This issue can be corrected by including downspeeding in the derivation of the 

proposed engine standards.

7. Even with the effective exclusion of WHR, advanced combustion and downspeeding, the 

agencies failed to set aggressive technology forcing standards for the technologies it did include 

in its preferred package: 

Combustion / fuel injection optimization Exhaust aftertreatment (Lower DP)

Engine friction and other parasitic losses Engine breathing system

Turbocharging system Engine downsizing

Volvo demonstrated 48% BTE without WHR compared with the proposed standard for HD tractor engines 

of 44.6% BTE (441 g/CO2/HP-hr). Cummins demonstrated 48.3% BTE without WHR. 
December 7, 2015 12

Findings - 4

8. The agencies should consider developing more accurate and current cost and retail price 

estimates based on a dialog with the SuperTruck OEMs and tier 1 supply base. Progress has 

been made between 2010 and 2015 both in simplifying designs for cost and reliability, and in 

better understanding manufacturing processes.

9. Attention should be paid to the progress being made by the SuperTruck teams to improve HD 

tractor engine GHG emissions and fuel consumption. There is little evidence in the published 

reports from SWRI and the agencies of seeking data from the SuperTruck program – beyond 

citing the annual merit reviews as references. 
December 7, 2015 13

Findings - 5

10. By modifying the HD engine SET test cycle for GHG emissions and fuel consumption 

certification, the direct linkage between criteria pollutants and GHGs has been broken.

11. Synergistic and dis-synergistic effects need to be accounted for with the specific combinations 

of technology in mind. The agencies applied a 25% discount in 2021 and a 15% discount in 

2024 and 2027 across all technologies.
December 7, 2015 14

Recommendations – 1

1. The agencies should strengthen the standards for HD tractor engines used in line-haul and 

heavy-haul applications. These engines have the highest annual mileage, consume the most 

fuel and emit the most CO2. The following limit standards and schedule were found to be 

feasible in the time scale under discussion, and are recommended for consideration: 

MY 2027 and beyond HD Tractor Engines 390 gCO2/HP-hr (50.4% BTE)

2. Retain the current phase-in schedule, while increasing stringency in 2021 and 2024 

proportional with the final step proposed in bullet 1 above: 

MY 2024-2026 HD Tractor Engines 405 gCO2/HP-hr (48.5% BTE)

MY 2021-2023 HD Tractor Engines 435 gCO2/HP-hr (45.1% BTE)
December 7, 2015 15

Recommendations – 2

3. If the agencies determine there is a need to manage risk associated with new technologies, 

they could consider a biennial review – as defined and implemented for the 2010 criteria 

pollutant program.

4. Downspeeding should be included in the derivation of the proposed engine standards.

5. The loss of alignment between criteria pollutant emissions with GHG emissions caused by 

proposed changes to the weighting factors for GHG emissions, could be remedied by either 

reverting back to the SET test cycle used for NOx and PM for GHG certification, or by adopting 

the new test cycle for NOx and PM certification. 
December 7, 2015 16

C

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

A

C

B

A

C

B

A

Technology Transfer

Gov’t Co-Funded Programs, e.g. SuperTruck

Technology Development

B

Key

A = Product Architecture and Design

B = Product Validation / Reliability Growth

C = Mfg. Process / Supply Chain Readiness

= Product Launch

Product Development

Engine Product Development Cycles 2015 - 2027

• Three technology and product 

development cycles before 2027 

launch

• Ample opportunity for Technology 

Reviews by the agencies

• OEMs are engaged – DOE programs 

and GHG Phase 1

• Supply base is engaged in the 

development of advanced 

technologies:

- WHR – heat exchangers, expanders and 

working fluids

- Reduced friction – bearings, pistons, liners, 

var. flow pumps and low vis. lubricants

Phase/Gate Process for Technology and Product Development
December 7, 2015 17

Oil Viscosity

Key Engine Technologies

Advanced 

Combustion

Variable 

Valve 

Actuation

Low 

Temperature 

Combustion

PCCI

RCCI

Dual Fuel

Peak Cylinder 

Pressure

Advanced

Sensors

Advanced 

Fuel Injection

Optimized 

Lube and 

Cooling

Variable Flow

Lube & Coolant

Pumps

Engine Friction & 

Parasitic Losses

ORC/WHR

Ethanol, 

R245fa

Engine 

Pumping 

Losses

EGR Delivery 

Delta P

LP & HP EGR

Turbocompound

Mechanical /

Electric

High Efficiency

VGT

Downspeeding

1000 RPM Cruise

Downsizing

High BMEP 11L

High PCP

Air Handling 

2-Stage, VGT

Aftertreatment

Back Pressure

DPF Passive

Regeneration

SCR Efficiency 

High EngineOut NOx NH3 Slip 

Catalyst 

Performance

Passive NOx 

Adsorber

Piston, Rings, 

Liner & 

Bearings

Reduced 

Friction Seals

Fuel System 

Parasitics

High CR -

Chamber 

Design / CFD

ORC/WHR

Mech./Elec.

ORC/WHR

Turbine, 

Scroll, Piston eTurbo,

Asymmetric

Actively 

Controlled Air 

Compressor

Variable 

Speed 

Cooling Fan

Electrically 

Driven 

Components

Reduced 

Swirl, 

Quiescent

Advanced

Sensors

Model-Based

Controls

Adaptive

Real-Time FE 

Optimization
December 7, 2015 18

Downspeeding (and steady-state test cycle changes)

• Proposed changes to the SET weighting 

factors reflect the trend toward 

downspeeding

• The change also reduces the stringency 

of the standards – since the 2017 

baseline was determined using the 

current SET weighting factors

• With no change in engine design or 

calibration, the new weighting factors 

reduce the SET composite BSCO2 by 1-2%

• Should be accounted for in the engine 

standards

A B C

25

0

50

75

100

12%

9% 9%

12%

12%

12% 9%

10%

10%

2%

1%

1%

1%

Engine Load [%]

Engine Speed [%]

0 50 75 100

15%

5%

A B C

25

0

50

75

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

10%

10%

10%

8% 9% 8%

Engine Load [%]

Engine Speed [%]

0 50 75 100

A, B , C speed weighting = 23% 39% 23% A, B , C speed weighting = 45% 38% 5%

European ESC steady-state test with time 

weighting factors – Adopted by EPA in 2000 for 

criteria pollutants, and in 2014 for GHG emissions 

from HD tractor engines

Proposed time weighting factors for Phase 2 GHG 

and fuel consumption standards, for HD tractor 

engines – with major shift to the A speed.

100
December 7, 2015 19

Downspeeding and Steady-state test cycle changes

• HD engines can be optimized for downspeeding:

- Reduce torque peak speed

- Reduce rated speed

- Increase maximum torque

- Optimize air handling and combustion for improved fuel 

consumption

- Increase peak cylinder pressure

• This Chalmers / Volvo study yielded a 3.4% 

reduction of fuel consumption and CO2

• SWRI study yielded a 2-4% reduction

• These reductions are in addition to the reductions 

due to changes in SET weighting factors of 1-2%

• Combined reduction of between 3% and 6% should 

be included in the BSCO2 engine standards

Source – Chalmers / Volvo, Narayanan - 2011

-3%

500 1000 1500 2000

3200

3000

2750

2500

2250

2000

1750

1500

1250

1000

Engine Speed [r/min]

Torque [Nm]

Typical EURO 6 / US 2010 Torque Curve

Highway Cruise Speed

Torque Curve Optimized for Downspeeding

Highway Cruise Speed

0%

-1%

-2%

-4%

-5%

-6%

+1%

3.4% Reduction of CO2

Customer Duty-Cycle

Change in BSFC
December 7, 2015 20

Downspeeding and Steady-state test cycle changes

• Sweet spot is moved to lower engine speeds

• Improvements in fuel consumption with lower 

operating speeds are due to:

- Heat transfer – strong function of engine / piston speed

- Shorter heat release duration in crank angle / centroid

- Friction reduction – cylinder kit, overhead, bearings

• Fuel consumption reduced significantly at lower 

speed

• This reduction of fuel consumption and CO2 will be 

realized on the SET engine test

Source – Chalmers / Volvo, Narayanan - 2011

-3%

500 1000 1500 2000

3200

3000

2750

2500

2250

2000

1750

1500

1250

1000

Engine Speed [r/min]

Torque [Nm]

Typical EURO 6 / US 2010 Torque Curve

Highway Cruise Speed

Torque Curve Optimized for Downspeeding

Highway Cruise Speed

0%

-1%

-2%

-4%

-5%

-6%

+1%

3.4% Reduction of CO2

Customer Duty-Cycle

Change in BSFC
December 7, 2015 21

Waste Heat Recovery

• Many options under active development:

- Working fluid – Ethanol, R245fa, Toluene ...

- Expander – turbine, scroll, piston ...

- Heat sources – EGR, Exhaust, CAC, Coolant

- Recuperator

• Supply base actively engaged and 

developing technology and products

• Small offset in weight and heat rejection

• Demonstrated CO2reductions of 4-6% in 

line haul application

EGR Heat Exchanger

Recuperator

Turbine

Exhaust Heat Exchanger SCR / DPF Condenser
December 7, 2015 22

EGR heat source only – 3-4% CO2reduction

Waste Heat Recovery – Not one size fits all

Exhaust and EGR heat source – 4-6% CO2reduction
December 7, 2015 23

WHR - Tier 1 Suppliers Engaged and Investing Resources

Significant engagement by the supply base:

• Bosch

• Mahle / Behr / Amovis

• Cummins Turbo Technologies

• Modine

• Voith

• Barber Nichols

• ...
December 7, 2015 24

WHR - Tier 1 Suppliers Engaged and Investing Resources

Cummins Turbo Technologies –

Axial turbine expander for Waste 

Heat Recovery with mechanical 

drive

May 2015 - Mahle Group has acquired Amovis GmbH –

specifically to gain access to Organic Rankine Cycle technology 

for commercial vehicles. Mahle portfolio now includes all of the 

essential technologies for a complete ORC system

Modine is developing a series of 

compact heat exchangers designed 

to capture waste heat from the 

exhaust stream of a diesel engine 

and convert this heat into useful 

power to improve engine efficiency 

and reduce CO2 emissions
December 7, 2015 25

WHR - Tier 1 Suppliers Engaged and Investing Resources

Honeywell – Developing working fluids for 

Organic Rankine Cycles, with low GWP.

Genetron 245fa has the most favorable 

properties for low temperature

heat recovery systems. Its thermodynamic 

properties are different than HFCs typically 

used in refrigeration. 
December 7, 2015 26

Impact of WHR on the vehicle

• Space claim has been demonstrated in real 

world operations in SuperTruck projects

• Condenser integrated within the cooling 

module

• Space claim and weight offset by 

improvements to existing aftertreatment 

modules

EGR Heat Exchanger

Recuperator

Turbine

Exhaust Heat Exchanger SCR / DPF Condenser

The EcoFit Single Module is 

60% smaller and 40% lighter 

than current SCR DPF Systems
December 7, 2015 27

Advanced Combustion and Tools / 55% BTE

• CFD tools are a very effective way to search the 

available design space

• Design space is large:

- Spark-ignition, compression ignition

- Stoichiometric, lean, ultra-lean stratified

- Fuel properties:

 Diesel, gasoline, natural gas, ethanol ...

- Chamber geometry and compression ratio

- Injection parameters:

 Gasoline PFI, GDI

 High pressure diesel injection >3000 bar

 Nozzle configuration, multi-pulse

- Charge motion – swirl, tumble

- Turbulence generation

- Advanced sensors – cylinder pressure ...

CFD used to optimize 

combustion chamber geometry 

and CR for GISFC – 0.5% BTE

Dual Fuel 

AFCI

Diesel 

Premix

Conventional

Diesel

Quantity of Alternate Fuel

Premix Fuel Quantity

0% 100%

0%

100%

Diesel LTC

Diesel

PCCI

Dual Fuel

HCCI

Conventional

Dual Fuel

Single 

Alternate 

Fuel

HCCI

Compression 

Ignition
December 7, 2015 28

Engine Platform Implications

• The Mission – Interstate truck load and less than truck load, 

all terrain, all altitudes

- LTL productivity demands performance 425-450 HP, 1650-1850 ft-lbs

- TL premium / heavy operations demand 450-550HP, 1850-2050 ft-lbs

- 10-12 MPG

• Downsizing to 11L – significantly increases the BMEP 

required to meet the mission – increased PCP, bearings etc.

• Downspeeding further increases the demands for high BMEP

• Waste heat recovery does not put demand on the engine 

platform

• 15L engines can achieve the mission without major redesign

• 13L engines may need significant upgrade

• 11L platform would require major redesign or clean sheet 

design
December 7, 2015 29

Reliability Growth

• 12 years is time enough to develop reliable 

products with 50% BTE

• Key technologies are understood and ready 

for product development

• All OEMs and engine manufacturers run 

extensive field testing in customer operations 

- Typically 5-10M miles per launch

• Tier 1 supply base development of technology

- Bosch, Mahle, Modine, Cummins Turbo ...

• Learnings from earlier emissions and OBD 

programs – EGR, SCR, DPF

• Early collaboration is critical – vehicle 

integration, supply base readiness ...

• Analysis tools are highly capable – CFD, FEA

• Service organizations engaged early

• Telematics, remote diagnostics
December 7, 2015 30

Daimler SuperTruck Program

Reported

BTE %

BTE per 

Improvement

BSFC

g/kWh

Fuel 

Consumption 

Reduction

BSCO2

g/HP-hr

Base 42.0 198.9

Base Package 5.90 47.9 174.4 12.3% 410.35

- Downsizing to 10.7L from 14.8L

- Reduced EGR & optimized turbocharger and 

air system match

- Higher compression ratio, piston bowl 

optimization, matching injector nozzles

- Variable speed water pump

- Low viscosity oil and higher oil film 

temperatures

- Piston kit improvements

- High efficiency, lower restriction 

aftertreatment - 6.9g/HP-hr EO NOx

50% BTE Package 2.30 50.2 166.4 16.3% 391.55

- Turbocharger Sized for Reduced Pumping 

- Peak Firing Pressure Increased 15%

- Liner Cooling - Mid-Stroke

WHR - Electrical, Ethanol, Scroll Expander 2.80 44.8 186.5 6.2% 438.75

Delta BTE 8.20 50.2 166.4 16.3% 391.55

w/o WHR

Incudes WHR at 2.8% BTE

Below - 6.2% BSFC Contribution

SuperTruck Demonstrated Performance – Cummins and Daimler

Cummins SuperTruck Program

Reported

BTE %

BTE per 

Improvement

BSFC

g/kWh

Fuel 

Consumption 

Reduction

BSCO2

g/HP-hr

Base Package 42.0 198.9

- Engine + A/T + WHR 5.50 47.5 175.9 11.6% 413.81

PCP + CR 0.80 42.8 195.2 1.9% 459.25

Turbocharger Efficiency 0.50 42.5 196.5 1.2% 462.49

WHR Improvements 0.60 42.6 196.1 1.4% 461.41

EGR DP + Vol. Eff. 0.50 42.5 196.5 1.2% 462.49

Power Cylinder Friction 0.25 42.3 197.7 0.6% 465.23

WHR (included in above analysis) 2.80 44.8 186.5 6.2% 438.75

8.15 50.2 166.6 16.3% 391.94
December 7, 2015 31

SuperTruck Demonstrated Performance – Volvo and Navistar

Volvo SuperTruck Program

Reported

BTE %

BTE per 

Improvement

BSFC

g/kWh

Fuel 

Consumption 

Reduction

BSCO2

g/HP-hr

Baseline 42.0 198.9

Combustion 1.80 43.8 190.7 4.1% 448.77

Friction 0.20 42.2 197.9 0.5% 465.78

Pumping 0.50 42.5 196.5 1.2% 462.49

Air Handling 2.70 44.7 186.9 6.0% 439.73

Downsize 0.50 42.5 196.5 1.2% 462.49

Downspeed 0.50 42.5 196.5 1.2% 462.49

Aftertreatment 0.10 42.1 198.4 0.2% 466.89

WHR 2.10 44.1 189.4 4.8% 445.71

8.40 50.4 165.7 16.7% 390.00

Navistar SuperTruck Program

Reported

BTE %

BTE per 

Improvement

BSFC

g/kWh

Fuel 

Consumption 

Reduction

BSCO2

g/HP-hr

Baseline 40.2 207.8

Downspeed 2.1 42.3 197.5 5.0% 464.68

Gas Flow Optimization 2.1 42.3 197.5 5.0% 464.68

Combustion 1.6 41.8 199.8 3.8% 470.24

Parasitic Losses 0.5 40.7 205.2 1.2% 482.95

WHR 1.8 42.0 198.9 4.3% 468.00

8.10 48.3 172.9 16.8% 406.96
December 7, 2015 32

Derivation of the Proposed Engine Standards

Technology

SET-Weighted 

Reduction

2020-2027

Market 

Penetration 

2021

Market 

Penetration 

2024

Market 

Penetration 

2027

Turbocompound 1.8% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

Waste Heat Recovery 5.5% 0.0% 20.0% 75.0%

Parasitic / Friction - Cylinder Kit, Lube, FIE etc. 1.4% 45.0% 95.0% 100.0%

Aftertreatment - Efficency and DP - EO NOx 1.0% 45.0% 95.0% 100.0%

EGR, Manifolds, Ports, Turbocharger 1.1% 45.0% 95.0% 100.0%

Combustion, PCP, CR, FIE, Model-Based Control 4.0% 45.0% 95.0% 100.0%

Downsizing 0.3% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0%

Downspeeding 3.5% 50.0% 75.0% 90.0%

Advanced Combustion / Tools 0.5% 15.0% 75.0% 85.0%

SET Weighting Factors - Add back the stringency 1.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Dis-Synergy Factor 100.0% 95.0% 95.0%

6.54% 10.56% 11.39%

8.22% 12.08% 12.89%

11.68% 15.21% 15.99%

6.62% 11.6% 15.0%

BSCO2 [g/HP-hr] 460 430 406 391
December 7, 2015 33

BSCO2 Bridge

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

SET BSCO2 Bridge 2017 - 2027

BSCO2 – g/HP-hr

441 g/HP-hr

460 g/HP-hr

390 g/HP-hr

NPRM SET BSCO2 Bridge 2017 - 2027

Turbocompound

Waste Heat Recovery

Friction / Parasitics

Aftertreatment DP

Pumping – EGR etc.

Combustion – FIE, CR

Downsizing

1.3%

4.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8%

3.0%

0.2% 2.6%

0.4% 1.1%

NOTE: All percentages are after the application of Adoption Rates and Dis-Synergy Factors – slide 31

1.1% 2.6% 4.2%
December 7, 2015 34

Concluding Remarks – 1

• More stringent line-haul engine standards are feasible in 2027 timeframe

– 15% reduction of CO2, BSCO2 = 390 g/HP-hr

– Essential for fuel economy > 10-12 MPG

– A combination of SET relaxation and downspeeding will almost meet the proposed 2027 standard –

however – neither were accounted for in the determination of the standard

• Industry has proven track record of innovation

– Regulation is essential to drive investments in research and development

– 12 year lead time + 5 years of DoE SuperTruck programs

– Consider conducting a biennial review as was done for the 2007/2010 HD criteria pollutant rule

– Supply base is engaged and developing technology and products
December 7, 2015 35

Concluding Remarks – 2

• Meeting these standards will not require the development of clean sheet engine platforms – in 

the 13-15L class

• Downsizing to 11L for LTL and TL applications is a non-starter:

– Minimal CO2reduction

– Clean sheet engine design, major capital and development expenses

• Waste heat recovery is an important technology for fuel consumption and CO2reduction:

– EGR heat source provides 3-4% CO2savings

– EGR and exhaust heat source provides 4-6% savings

– Industry working toward 2 year payback