Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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# Appendix C On-road Mobile Source Inventory

DocumentationRevision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### This page intentionally left blankRevision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction a nd Scop e ... ................................................................................................... ......5

2.0 Overall Me thodolog y ........................................................................................................ .........5 3.0 Quality Assurance Measures .....................................................................................................5

4.0 Discussion of Mobile Source Cate gories ..................................................................................6

5.0 Data Files Provided on DVD

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### LIST OF TABLES

Table 4.2-1: Population Data .................................................................................................. ................... 9 Table 4.2-2: Vehicle Averag e Annual Increase Percentage.....................................................................10 Table 4.2-3: Vehicle Population Growth ........................................................................................ .........10 Table 4.2-4: VMT and Speed Data Provided by the Charlotte Department of Transportation ...............11 Table 4.2-5: On-road Mobile Source Average Summer Day NO

x 

### and VOC Emissions.........................15

Table 4.4-1: On-road Mobile Source NO

x 

### and VOC Emissions..............................................................22

Table 4.4-2: NO

x 

### and VOC MVEBs for 2013 and 2022 .........................................................................22

Table 4.4-3: NO

x 

### and VOC Refueling Emissions for 2013 and 2022 .....................................................22



### LIST OF FIGURES

Figure F4.3-1: Metrolina Area 2002 Daily Summertime VOC Emissions..............................................17 Figure F4.3-2: Metrolina Area 2009 Daily Summertime VOC Emissions..............................................17 Figure F4.3-3: 8-hour Ozone response to 30% anthropogenic VOC re ductions in 2009 ........................19 Figure F4.3-2: 8-hour Ozone Response to 50% mobile VOC decrease in 2008 .....................................20Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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## 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE

The on-road mobile source inventory detailed in this section has been developed for the Rock Hill-Fort Mill Area Transporta tion Study (RFATS) Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) portion of York County, South Carolina within the Charlotte-Gastoni a-Rock Hill, NC-SC nonattainment area (the York NA area) fo r the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS Redesignation

Demonstration and Maintenance Plan. On-road m obile sources were identified from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA ) highway mobile model, MOVES2010a. Onroad mobile sources consist of cars, trucks, an d motorcycles that travel on the main roads and

interstates.

Although the South Carolina Department of Hea lth and Environmental Control (SCDHEC or Department) Bureau of Air Quality (BAQ) inve ntories all the criteria pollutants and a large number of toxic pollutants, only the nitrogen oxides (NO

x 

### ) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) are reported here since th ey are important for ozone form ation. The emissions in this report were projected to the years 2010 (the base year), 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2022.



## 2.0 EMISSION ESTIMATION APPROACH

Mobile source emissions are estimated by the methodologies suggested in the EPA document

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Tr ansportation Conformity (EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010),

hereafter referred to as the Technical Guidance document.

For on-road mobile sources, the EPA mobile model MOVES2010a is used to genera te emissions.

The estimation of emissions from mobile sour ces involves multiplying an activity level by an emission factor. MOVES2010a is a computer m odel designed to estimate emission factors and emission inventories of VOCs, NO

x 

### , CO, PM 10 

### , PM 2.5 

### and other pollutants and precursors for cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles. MOVE S2010a, released in August 2010, was designed to replace the previous emissions model, MOBI LE6.2, which was released in 2004 (69 FR 28830). MOVES2010a replaces MOBILE6.2 as the emissions model that EPA will maintain and support. MOVES2010a can be used to estimate exhaust and evaporative emissions as well as brake and tire wear emissions from all types of on-road vehicles.



## 3.0 QUALITY ASSURANCE MEASURES

The quality analysis (QA) for the on-road m obile source category can be broken into three components: 1) inputs, 2) MOVES2010a run specification (runspec), and 3) MOVES2010a output. Each of these components is detailed in the paragraphs below.

In all cases, input information being used fo r the MOVES2010a runs were not received in MOVES2010a format. Anytime data had to be mani pulated to get it into the proper format, the final data was compared back to the original data to make sure there were no errors made and the values are represented corre ctly in the input files.Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### After the speed and vehicle miles traveled (VMT ) information was acquired from the Charlotte Department of Transportation (CDOT), the data was checked for reasonableness against previous years’ data for the area, where possible. The base year (2010) VMT was compared to actual whole county VMT data. Also, e ach year’s estimated annual VMT was compared to each other to make sure they were all reasonable and consis tent and no errors were made in generating the inputs. The speeds were all reviewed to make sure they were consistent with the road type and time of day.

Once the input files were prepared, a staff member not responsible for generating the inputs spot checked some of the files to make sure they lo oked reasonable and the values added up properly. This was especially helpful in reviewing the average speed distribution inputs as the development of the files was very tedious and e rrors could easily occur. If any discrepancies were found, they were noted back to the pers on who generated the inpu t files for correction.

Since more than one staff member was respons ible for doing the MOVES2010a runs, a template was created that outlined all selections and steps th at needed to be included in the runspecs. This ensured consistency in the runspecs.

Once MOVES2010a was run, the output results were compared to e ach other to make sure they looked consistent. A couple of the years were run by more than one person to make sure the same output emissions were received.

A final QA step is to check the kilograms per da y (kg/day) emissions de veloped using the input data and compare this to previous years to check for reasonableness.



## 4.0 DISCUSSION OF MO BILE SOURCE CATEGORIES

On-road mobile sources produce VOCs and NO

x 

### , along with a host of other pollutants.

Emissions of NO

x 

### and VOC are estimated in the mobile source inventory required for the maintenance plan. The objective of the following section is to describe the source category and the emissions estimation procedures. This s ection also includes tables summarizing the estimated emissions for a typical July day for the York NA area.

4.1 Introduction and Scope

On-road mobile sources are considered those vehi cles that travel on the roadways. Emissions from motor vehicles occur throughout the day while the vehicle is in moti on, at idle, parked, and during refueling. All of these emissions processe s need to be estimated in order to properly reflect the total emissions from this source categor y. It is important to note that emissions from vehicle refueling (Stage 2 refuel ing emissions) and spillage loss during refueling emissions are accounted for in the Area source portion of th e inventory and are not included in the

MOVES2010a runs.Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### The EPA developed the MOVES2010a model to estimate emissions based on more current information on the way vehicles are driven in a particular area. Ke y inputs for MOVES2010a include information on the age of vehicles on the roads, the av erage speed of those vehicles, what types of roads those vehicles are traveling, and any control tec hnologies in place in an area to reduce emissions for motor vehicles (e.g., emi ssions inspection programs), temperature, and humidity data.

A very important component of the on-road mob ile emissions estimation process is interagency consultation. The South Carolina interagency cons ultation partners involved in the development of the redesignation request and maintenan ce plan include EPA Region 4, South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT), Federa l Highways (FHWA), Federal Transit Authority (FTA), SCDHEC and the RFATS MPO. The in teragency consultation partners consult on MOVES2010a modeling inputs as well as issues concerning th e motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) through monthly confer ence calls and via email.

4.2 MOVES2010a Runs

Runspecs and inputs were developed using the EPA’s Technical Guidance document as guidance. Due to the size and the complexity of the MOVES2010a input and output files, the MOVES2010a input files and output files will be provided electro nically. A complete listing of

these files is referenced in Section 5.0.

4.2.1 Runspec Selections

In order to use MOVES 2010a to develop emissions for SIP purposes, certain criteria had to be met in selections made in the runspec. The following are selections ma de for each tab of the

runspec:

Scale:

Domain/Scale = County

Calculation Type= Inventory

Time Spans:

Time Aggregation Level= Hour

Years= 2010 (Base Year); this was changed for su ccessive runs to represen t 2013, 2016, 2019, &

2022

Months= July (To represent an average summer month)

Days= Weekdays (Recommended for SIPs in the Technical Guidance document)

Hours= Start Hour= 00:00-00:59 End Hour= 23:00-23:59 (This represents all 24 hrs in a day)

Geographic Bounds:Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### York County, South Carolina

Domain Input Database appears at the bottom of this tab and provides access to the County Data
Manager, where the actual York County speci fic inputs were imported for each run. These
county specific inputs will be discussed in detail later in this document.

Vehicles/Equipment- Onroad Vehicle Equipment:

Gasoline and Diesel combinations with all sour ce use types were selected (26 total fuel/source
use type selections).

The Technical Guidance document indicates users mu st select the appropriate fuel and vehicle
type combinations in the On Road Vehicle Equipm ent panel to reflect the full range of vehicles
that will operate in the county. It was confirme d that there are no transit buses using CNG in the
nonattainment portion of York County, so CNG transit buses were not selected.

Road Type:

All 5 road types were selected.

The Technical Guidance document indicates that all SIP and regional conformity analyses must
include the Off-Network road type in order to ac count for emissions from vehicle starts, extended
idle activity, and evaporative emissions (for hydrocarbons).

Pollutants/processes:

All processes for total gaseous hydrocar bons, non-methane hydrocarbons, VOC and NO

x 

### have
been selected, except refueling and spillage emi ssions, since these are already captured in our
area source inventory.

Strategies- Alternative vehicle fuels and technologies:

Since no CNG transit buses are present in our modeled area, the MOVES2010a default
FuelEngFraction table was amended to shift all the VMT assigned to CNG buses to diesel transit
vehicles. This amended file was imported to replace the default file in MOVES2010a.

Output- General Output:

Units: Mass units= Kilograms

Units: Energy units= Million BTU

Units: Distance units= Miles

Activity: ‘Population’ and ‘Dis tance Traveled’ were selected, as recommended by the Technical

Document.

Kilograms have been selected because kg/day has been used since the RFATS Attainment
Demonstration was originally submitted in 2007.Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### Output- Output Emission Detail:

Always: 24-Hour Day and County were selected.

For all vehicle equipment categories: No selections were made.

On Road: No selections were made.

Advanced Performance Features :

No selections were made.



### 4.2.2 Input Assumptions For MOVES2010a

Source Type Population

To develop source type populati on data, SCDHEC obtained a July 31, 2010, snapshot of vehicle population for the whole York County from the South Carolina Department of Motor Vehicles (SCDMV). This population data was not broken out by the MOVES2010a source type categories. Passenger vehicles and motorcycle s were the only MOVES2010a source types that could be distinguished from all other vehicles. As the Technical Guidance document indicates, the 2010 default York County source type population data was exported from MOVES2010a and used to help apportion the ac tual vehicle type population. Using the ratio of MOVES2010a passenger cars and passenger trucks to each ot her, the actual York County passenger vehicle population was separated into pa ssenger cars and passenger tr ucks. For the remaining nonpassenger and non-motorcycle sources, the MOVES2010a ratio of each was calculated against all non passenger and non-motorcycle population. This ratio was then multiplied by the remaining actual York population (after the pa ssenger cars, passenger trucks, and motorcycle populations had been subtracted ). This methodology created MOVES2010a-ready source type population values for all of York County, but this effort is only dealing with the York NA area.

The ratio of the York NA area population to the county population was used to estimate emissions

for the York NA area. Table 4.2- 1 contains the 2005 p opulation for York County. The York NA area population was determined from the RF ATS MPO 2005 Baseline Socio-Economic Data (submitted to Charlotte in 2006). Using this da ta, the estimated York NA area population is 153,900, and 75.8 percent of York Coun ty’s population is in the York NA area. This percentage was used to allocate the county-level emi ssions to the York NA area.

Table 4.2-1: Population Data

Population of York County 203,054

Population of York NA area 153,900

Percentage of Population in York NA area 75.8Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### Once the base year source type population was generated, the future year files for 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2022 needed to be estimated. The SCDM V was not able to provide future year vehicle population data, nor did they have any sugge stions on expected annual growth in vehicle population values. In order to get an estimate of average annual vehicle population growth, SCDHEC collected two years of historical Yo rk County vehicle populati on data, 2004 and 2010. Using these two years the average annual increase pe rcentage was calculated (Table 4.2-2). This data was used to grow the population for 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2022.

Table 4.2-2: Vehicle Average Annual Increase Percentage

2004 2010 # vehicles

increased over 6 years % increase

from 2004 Avg annual

increase over 6

years Increase for a 3 yr period
167,235 197,331 30,096 17.99% 2.99% 8.97% or 0.0897

Note that the 2004 population data was obtained from the SC Statis tical Abstract, found online at http://abstract.sc.gov/ . This value includes all population data, even some categories that represent non-motorized vehicles. In order to compare the 2004 data to the 2010 data, the nonmotorized vehicles were added back into the 2010 total population for th is comparison only. The

non-motorized vehicles are excluded in the source type population inputs for MOVES2010a. This growth analysis in dicates an average 3 year growth ra te of 8.97 percent or 0.0897. The base year 2010 source type population as multiplied by 1.0897 to generate the 2013 estimates. This was continued until all future years were cal culated, as outlined in the following table:

Table 4.2-3: Vehicle Population Growth

Year

Id Source Type Source Type Population 3yr adjustment

ratio 2013

Source

Type Population 2016

Source

Type Population 2019

Source

Type Population 2022

Source

Type Population

2010 11 4,758 1.0897 51,85 5,650 6,157 6,709

2010 21 59,890 1.0897 65,263 71,117 77,496 84,447

2010 31 45,181 1.0897 49,233 53,650 58,462 63,706

2010 32 23,752 1.0897 25,883 28,205 30,735 33492

2010 41 121 1.0897 132 144 157 171

2010 42 63 1.0897 69 75 82 89

2010 43 822 1.0897 896 976 1,064 1,159

2010 51 70 1.0897 76 83 90 98

2010 52 4,760 1.0897 5,187 5,652 6,159 6,711

2010 53 612 1.0897 667 726 792 863

2010 54 1,101 1.0897 1,199 1,307 1,424 1,552

2010 61 1,015 1.0897 1,106 1,205 1,313 1,431

2010 62 1,214 1.0897 1,323 1,442 1,571 1,712Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### Vehicle Type VMT

Daily weekday VMT and speed data was obtaine d from CDOT (see Table 4.2-4). The CDOT data was used to compile the average da ily VMT by MOVES2010a road type. VMT was distributed to the MOVES2010a source types a ccording to the distribution in SCDOT’s 2009 Functional Class Annual Report. To convert the daily VMT data to an annual value, which is required by MOVES2010a, the EP A’s aadvmtcalculator_hpms.xls VMT converter tool was used. This tool used default monthly, daily, an d hourly ratios to create an annual VMT profile from an average daily profile. The resulting files (filenames hpmsvtypeyear , monthvmtfraction

, and dayvmtfraction) were exported from the converter tool and used in the MOVES2010a modeling. The MOVES2010a default ta ble with filename hourvmtfraction was exported from MOVES2010a and used for each applicable year. 2016 is a leap year and it was confirmed that the converter tool did use leap year fractions tables to estimate the annual VMT for this year.

Table 4.2-4: York County Nonattainment Area VMT and Speed Data Provided by the Charlotte Department of Transportation

AM Peak Midday PM Peak Night DAILY

2010 VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMTassn Spd

Rural Interstate 241,701 57 281,780 66 267,887 58 156,450 65 947,818 61 Rural Principal Art. 24,294 38 26,126 54 26,639 40 11,906 58 88,965 44

Rural Minor Art. 69,492 36 91,390 38 78,222 33 57,184 46 296,287 37 Rural Major Collect. 64,730 40 84,868 45 74,449 39 48,555 49 272,602 43

Rural Minor Collect. 8,071 20 10,251 22 9,026 14 5,439 31 32,787 19

Rural Local 86,802 27 126,624 27 105,812 28 64,874 27 384,112 27

Urban Interstate 224,233 56 266,933 63 249,241 59 147,122 63 887,529 60

Urban Frwy/Exprwy 22,100 41 34,213 43 25,670 40 16,112 45 98,095 42 Urban Principal Art. 198,097 30 292,454 34 225,320 29 167,218 40 883,089 32

Urban Minor Art. 178,520 30 268,069 33 207,788 29 153,477 40 807,853 32

Urban Collector 62,067 24 91,957 24 73,342 18 41,627 33 268,993 23

Urban Local 157,506 24 264,677 24 186,802 24 133,773 25 742,758 24

Rural 495,089 621,039 562,036 344,408 2,022,572

Urban 842,523 1,218,304 968,162 659,330 3,688,318

County 1,337,612 1,839,342 1,530,198 1,003,738 5,710,890

AM Peak Midday PM Peak Night DAILY

2013 VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMTassn Spd

Rural Interstate 249,203 56 292,919 66 275,743 56 162,092 66 979,956 60 Rural Principal

Art. 25,604 36 27,496 53 28,117 38 12,952 58 94,169 43

Rural Minor Art. 74,079 35 97,224 37 82,489 33 60,708 45 314,500 37Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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Collect. 68,746 40 89,600 45 78,067 40 51,077 49 287,491 43

Rural Minor

Collect. 8,745 19 11,227 23 9,490 16 5,835 32 35,297 20

Rural Local 87,156 27 125,865 27 106,525 28 65,015 27 384,561 27

Urban Interstate 226,182 55 270,736 63 249,087 59 149,450 63 895,455 60

Urban Frwy/Exprwy 22,362 41 34,893 43 26,040 40 16,355 45 99,650 42 Urban Principal Art. 217,649 30 316,907 34 248,785 29 183,665 40 967,006 32

Urban Minor Art. 181,022 30 268,247 34 211,107 29 152,177 40 812,554 32

Urban Collector 63,214 25 90,797 25 74,981 19 41,714 33 270,706 23

Urban Local 159,900 24 265,963 24 189,537 24 135,297 25 750,697 24

Rural 513,533 644,331 580,431 357,678 2,095,974

Urban 870,330 1,247,543 999,537 678,658 3,796,068

County 1,383,863 1,891,874 1,579,968 1,036,336 5,892,041

AM Peak Midday PM Peak Night DAILY

2016 VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMTassn Spd

Rural Interstate 257,736 56 310,089 66 285,474 55 169,159 66 1,022,457 60 Rural Principal

Art. 26,997 35 31,546 51 30,147 35 14,185 58 102,875 41

Rural Minor Art. 74,974 36 97,675 38 83,568 33 60,842 45 317,059 37 Rural Major Collect. 72,255 39 94,812 44 81,571 38 54,719 49 303,356 42

Rural Minor

Collect. 9,094 18 11,747 22 9,839 16 6,089 32 36,768 20

Rural Local 89,483 27 128,595 27 109,770 28 66,935 27 394,782 27

Urban Interstate 232,891 56 284,716 63 256,266 58 156,166 63 930,039 60

Urban Frwy/Exprwy 23,269 41 36,981 43 27,250 40 17,078 45 104,578 42 Urban Principal

Art. 218,268 30 320,130 34 250,038 28 187,695 40 976,132 32

Urban Minor Art. 179,631 30 266,258 34 208,632 29 152,350 40 806,871 32

Urban Collector 65,480 26 94,180 27 78,780 20 41,407 33 279,848 25

Urban Local 167,886 23 277,055 24 199,378 24 140,395 25 784,713 24

Rural 530,538 674,463 600,368 371,928 2,177,297

Urban 887,425 1,279,321 1,020,344 695,091 3,882,181

County 1,417,963 1,953,784 1,620,712 1,067,019 6,059,478

AM Peak Midday PM Peak Night DAILY

2019 VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMTassn Spd

Rural Interstate 269,281 54 328,319 66 297,646 53 178,311 66 1,073,557 58 Rural Principal

Art. 27,776 35 33,408 50 30,874 35 14,947 58 107,005 41

Rural Minor Art. 78,675 36 102,522 37 87,434 32 63,594 45 332,226 36Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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Collect. 76,613 38 101,276 43 86,615 37 58,569 49 323,074 41

Rural Minor

Collect. 9,488 17 12,475 21 10,505 16 6,376 33 38,843 19

Rural Local 94,801 27 136,960 27 116,785 28 71,479 27 420,025 27

Urban Interstate 241,799 54 299,429 63 266,577 57 163,579 63 971,385 59

Urban Frwy/Exprwy 24,346 40 38,622 42 28,348 39 17,840 45 109,156 41 Urban Principal Art. 227,988 29 334,876 33 260,698 27 197,307 40 1,020,869 31

Urban Minor Art. 190,412 30 279,969 33 220,218 28 160,360 40 850,959 32

Urban Collector 69,833 25 100,339 27 83,841 20 44,717 33 298,729 25

Urban Local 177,870 23 293,013 24 210,727 24 148,467 25 830,078 24

Rural 556,635 714,960 629,860 393,275 2,294,729

Urban 932,248 1,346,247 1,070,410 732,270 4,081,175

County 1,488,882 2,061,207 1,700,270 1,125,545 6,375,905

AM Peak Midday PM Peak Night DAILY

2022 VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMT Spd VMTassn Spd

Rural Interstate 279,264 51 345,159 66 308,270 50 187,484 66 1,120,177 57 Rural Principal

Art. 28,145 32 33,530 47 31,260 32 15,147 55 108,083 38

Rural Minor Art. 82,315 35 107,084 37 90,921 31 66,434 45 346,754 36 Rural Major Collect. 80,522 37 106,955 42 91,114 36 61,905 48 340,496 40

Rural Minor

Collect. 9,952 17 13,108 20 11,038 15 6,898 25 40,996 18

Rural Local 101,266 27 145,909 27 124,398 27 76,013 27 447,586 27

Urban Interstate 251,027 53 314,121 63 276,377 55 171,873 63 1,013,398 58

Urban Frwy/Exprwy 25,604 39 40,218 42 29,494 38 18,417 44 113,733 41 Urban Principal

Art. 236,594 28 346,840 32 271,332 27 204,410 39 1,059,176 31

Urban Minor Art. 201,312 29 294,954 32 231,712 27 169,331 39 897,308 31

Urban Collector 74,295 25 106,250 26 88,993 19 47,219 32 316,757 24

Urban Local 187,652 23 308,212 24 222,427 23 156,641 25 874,932 24

Rural 581,463 751,746 657,001 413,882 2,404,092

Urban 976,483 1,410,595 1,120,334 767,891 4,275,303

County 1,557,946 2,162,340 1,777,335 1,181,773 6,679,395



### Fuel Formulation and Supply

The Technical Guidance document states that changes should be made only where local volumetric fuel property information is available, except in the case of RVP where a user should change the value to reflect the regulatory re quirements and differences between ethanol- and non-ethanol blended gasolines. South Carolina doe s not have local fuel parameter data so theRevision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### MOVES2010a default fuel supply data was used, except the applicable fuel parameters were changed to reflect the summer RV P regulatory requirement of 9.0.

Meteorology

For average summer day ozone for SIP or conformity purposes, the Technical Guidance recommends using average daily temperature profile s for July, or for the three month period that best represents the area’s ozone season. For this effort, the surface hourly data for the Charlotte International Airport was acquired from the Integrated Surface Hourly (ISH) database maintained by the National Climatic Data Center. Hourly temperature and dew point data for the month of July for the years 2004-2010 was extracted from the database. Average hourly temperatures and relative humidity for each hour of the dataset were calculated.

Road Type Distribution

SCDOT’s 2009 Functional Class Annual Report was used to allocate an appropriate fraction of each source type’s VMT to each road t ype. This was used for all years.

Age Distribution

Actual age distribution data was not available in time for this analysis, therefore MOVES2010a

defaults were used. The Technical Guidance docume nt states that “If user s are unable to acquire data to develop a local age distribution or ha ve reason to believe that data about locally registered vehicles is not necessarily represen tative of that entire portion of the fleet then MOVES2010a national default age distributions can be used.”

Average Speed Distribution

Speed data for a.m. peak hours (6:00 a.m. to 9: 00 a.m.), midday (9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.), p.m. peak hours (6:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.) and nightti me hours (9:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m.) was obtained for all modeled years from the CDOT. Vehicl e hours traveled (VHT) was calculated for each urban and rural road type by dividing VMT by speed. VHT for each road type was then assigned to a MOVES2010a speed bin. There are 16 speed bins, whose speed ranges are detailed in the Technical Guidance document. VHT for each of the four MOVES2010a on-road road types was totaled for each time period of the day and a fr action developed for each speed bin. Each road type (4 road types), source type (13 source types), and hour (24 hour dayIDs for weekdays) combination has a fraction totaling 1.0. These fract ions were calculated a nd saved in the proper MOVES2010a format and used in the modeling.

FuelEngFraction (Engine T ype and Fuel Used) Table

This MOVES2010a default table needed to be adju sted to account for the fa ct that there are no CNG transit buses operating in the RFATS area. The VMT assigned to CNG buses in the MOVES2010a default fuelEngFracti on file was re-assigned to diesel buses. This file was saved and imported back into MOVES2010a for the mode l runs. This amended file was imported intoRevision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### the Strategies-Alternative Vehicle Fuels & T echnologies tab of the runspec for all the

MOVES2010a runs.

4.2.3 Estimated Emissions From On-Road Mobile Sources

Using the outlined inventory approach, the M OVES2010a model gave a summary of emissions in kg per average summer day. A conversion fact or was used to calculate the tons per day emissions from the kg per day value. Table 4.2-5 summarizes the NO

x 

### and VOC emissions.

Table 4.2-5: On-road Mobile Source Average Summer Day NO

x 

### and VOC Emissions York County Nonattainment Area

2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

k g /da y Tons/day kg/day Tons/day kg/day Tons/day kg/day Tons/day kg/day Tons/day

NO

x 10,930 12.05 7,924 8.73 5,919 6.52 4,682 5.16 4,011 4.42

VOC 3,554 3.92 2,846 3.14 2,367 2.61 2,074 2.29 1,939 2.14



### 4.2.4 Motor Vehicle Emissions Budget for Conformity

Transportation Conformity

The purpose of transportation conformity is to ensure that federal transportation actions occurring in a nonattainment ar ea do not hinder the area from maintaining the 8-hour ozone

standard. This means that the level of em issions estimated for the MPO’s Transportation Implementation Plan (TIP) and Long Range Trans portation Plan (LRTP) must not exceed the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budget (MVEB) as defined in this maintenance plan.

4.3 On-road Mobile Source VOC Insignificance

The Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments for the 1997 8-hour ozone and fine particulate matter NAAQS addresses areas with insignificant motor vehicle emissions in Section 93.109(k)

which states:

Notwithstanding the other paragraphs in this se ction, an area is not required to satisfy a regional emissions analysis for §93.118 and/or §93.119 for a given pollutant/precursor and NAAQS, if EPA finds through the adequacy or approv al process that a SIP demonstrates that regional motor vehicle emissions are an insignificant contributor to the air quality problem for that pollutant/precursor and NAAQS. The SIP w ould have to demonstrate that it would be unreasonable to expect that such an area w ould experience enough motor vehicle emissions growth in that pollutant/precursor for a NAAQS violation to occur.

The rule explains that such a finding would be based on a num ber of factors, including the percentage of motor vehicle emi ssions in the context of the tota l SIP inventory, the current state of air quality as determined by monitoring data for that NAAQS, the absence of SIP motor vehicle control measures, and historical trends and future projections of the growth of motorRevision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### vehicle emissions. Also, in the EPA’s approval of VOC insignifica nce for the Triangle area of

North Carolina ( http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/EPA- AIR/2007/October/Day-03/a19513.htm ) , it states that the policy provides fl exibility for areas where motor ve hicle emissions have little or no impact on an area’s air quality problem. Furthe r, EPA states that the policy provides for state

and local resources to be direct ed towards reducing emissions from those sources that contribute the most to an area’s air quality problem.

SCDHEC has examined a NCDAQ study designed to determine the sources of VOC emissions

and their contribution to ozone formation in Nort h Carolina, since the re sults of the study would apply to the part of York County included in the Metrolina nonattainment area. Due to the generally warm and moist climate of the Caro linas, vegetation abounds in many forms, and forested lands naturally cover much of each stat e. The biogenic sector is the most abundant

source of VOC emissions in both Carolinas a nd accounts for approximately 90 percent of the total VOC emissions (89 percent for Region IV states and 88 percent for North Carolina, as

stated in the VOC Insensitivity To Ozone Production In North Carolina submitted to EPA on August 3, 2010). Due to the overwhelming abundance of biogenic VOC emissions, NCDAQ determined the vast majority of North Carolina a NO

x 

### limited environment for the formation of

ozone. This holds true for the Metrolina nona ttainment area counties. Summaries from the VISTAS/ASIP 2002 and 2009 regional modeling effort were used to illustrate the abundance of the biogenic VOC emissions. Figures F4.3-1 and F4.3-2 provide the percent contributions from point, on-road mobile, off-road mobile, area, and biogenic sources to the total VOC emissions in

the Metrolina nonattainment area in 2002 and 2009, respectively. Fo r the two partial counties in the Metrolina nonattainment area, Iredell and Yo rk Counties, the whole county emissions were used since the modeling invent ories are for whole counties.Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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15%

4%

7%

71% Point

On-Road Mobile

Off-Road Mobile

Area
Biogenic

2002 VOC Emissions 1132 tons/day



### Figure F4.3-1: Metrolina Area 2002 Daily Summertime VOC Emissions

2% 9%

3%

7%

79% Point

On-Road Mobile

Off-Road Mobile

Area
Biogenic

2009 VOC Emissions 1038 tons/day



### Figure F4.3-2: Metrolina Area 2009 Daily Summertime VOC Emissions



### In the Metrolina nonattainment ar ea, on-road mobile sources contribute only 15 and 9 percent of

the 2002 and 2009 total VOC emi ssions, respectively. Also, on-road mobile sources are expected to contribute only 5 perc ent of total VOC emissions in 2011.

Also noteworthy are the projected decreases in on-road mobile VOC emissions. These reductions are due mainly to the retirement of older vehicles and the growing fleet of Tier 2Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### vehicles on the roads in future years. Some additional reductions are attributable to North Carolina's Inspection and Maintenance program in the Metrolina area.

A modeling sensitivity test was pe rformed by ASIP that allows an analysis of VOC contributions

to ozone concentrations in the Southeastern Un ited States. One of the analyses conducted by ASIP is a series of emissions sensitivity modeli ng runs to quantify the contributions of various

emission sources to ozone and fi ne particles. The modeling system used in this analysis consisted of 3 components: 1) the Penn State University/Na tional Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5 version 3.6.1+), 2) the Spar se Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE version 2.1), and 3) the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ version 4.4) model. Model conf igurations, input data, and modeling methods

are consistent with thos e suggested by the EPA in Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses in Attainment Demonstr ations for the 8-hour Ozone NAAQS

.

The emissions sensitivities are calculated by taki ng the difference between two air quality model

simulations: one with base case emissions and another with reduced emissions inputs. The emissions sensitivity discussed here reduces all anthropogenic VOCs in the modeling domain by 30 percent from projected 2009 emission levels. Tr anslating this to the Metrolina nonattainment area emissions, this 30 percent anthropogenic VOC reduction is equivalent to about a 70 percent

reduction of all on-road mobile VOC emissions in the Metrolina nonattainment area for 2009. This emissions sensitivity was r un for a 39 day period (June 1-July 9). In all 39 days of the modeling simulation, the 8-hour ozone maximum concentrations were unchanged in the

Metrolina nonattainment area - a clear indicator that on-road mobile VOC is an insignificant

contributor to ozone formation in that area. In fact, there was not an 8-hour ozone response as high as 1 part per billio n (ppb) anywhere in eith er North or South Caroli na during the sensitivity simulation. Figure F4.3-3 provides an exam ple from the 30 percent anthropogenic VOC reduction modeling illustrating th e lack of ozone response for North and South Carolina.Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### Figure F4.3-3: 8-hour Ozone response to 30% anthropogenic VOC reductions in 2009



### Additional mobile source sens itivity simulations have b een conducted by the NCDAQ. Although York County was not incl uded in these model runs, it was determined by NCDAQ and

SCDHEC that the sensit ivity simulations would have the same impact in York County. These modeling runs focused specifically on the impact of mobile source VOC emissions on ozone. The sensitivity reduced mobile source VOC by 50 percent in the North Carolina counties in the Metrolina ozone nonattainment area (Cabarrus, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan and Union Counties) in the year 2008. This em issions sensitivity was run for a 7 day period (July 13-19). In all 7 days of the m odeling simulation, the 8-hour ozone maximum concentrations were unchanged in the Metrolina nonattainment area, a clear indicator that onroad mobile VOC is an insignificant contributor to ozone formation in that area. Figure F4.3-4 provides an example of the lack of an 8-hour ozone response from the 50 percent mobile VOC reduction sensitivity modeling.Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### Figure F4.3-4: 8-hour Ozone Response to 50% mobile VOC decrease in 2008



### Based on the information discussed above, th e NCDAQ and SCDHEC stead fastly believe onroad mobile VOCs are insignificant contribut ors to ozone formation in the Metrolina

nonattainment area. Emission estimates indicate on -road mobile VOC is a small percentage of the total VOC emissions inventory. On-road m obile VOC emissions are projected to decrease into the future notwithstanding VMT increases. The area is currentl y below the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS, and emission sensitivity mode ling performed by ASIP and the NCDAQ indicates no change in future ozone concen trations when VOC emissions are significantly changed.

Since the NCDAQ considered it unreasonable to expect that the Metrolina nonattainment area would experience enough motor vehicle VOC emissi ons growth for a future ozone violation to occur, neither the NCDAQ, nor SCDHEC set a MVEB for VOC for the Metrolina nonattainment

area in their first SIP submittal in 2007. Th e SCDHEC consulted with its interagency transportation partners prior to reaching this conclusion.

The EPA indicated by email on October 6, 2009, by phone on October 21, 2009 and again by phone on December 9, 2009, that it would not accep t the justification presented for VOC insignificance for the Metrolina n onattainment area for the attainment demonstration. A VOCRevision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### budget for on-road mobile sources was then prep ared and submitted with the 2010 attainment SIP. Therefore, the SCDHEC is again incl uding a VOC MVEB with this submittal while preserving our position of VOC insignificance.

Although a VOC MVEB has been developed and is being submitted, SCDHEC believes that a finding of VOC Insignificance for this area is supported. For purposes of transparency and providing information to the public, the following information summarizes our assessment of the appropriateness of a finding of VO C insignificance for this area. Pursuant to 93.109(k), the York County nonattainment area meets th e listed criteria as follows:

 

### The percentage of motor vehicle emissions in the context of the total SIP inventory. Onroad mobile emissions were pr ojected to account for 9 percent of VOC emissions for

2009 in the attainment demonstration submitted in 2007. For 2011, on-road mobile emission sources were projecte d to account for 5 percent of VOC emissions. This is well within EPA’s guideline of 10 percent, and continues to show a decreasing trend in the percentage of VOC emissions attribut ed to on-road mobile emissions. Further decreases beyond 2011 are expected due to fleet turnover and cleaner engine

standards.

 

### The current state of ai r quality as determined by monitoring data for the NAAQS. As discussed above, the design value for the York monitor has remained below the 1997 8- hour ozone NAAQS since 2002. In fact the de sign value has decrea sed 20 percent over that period. Annual values have decr eased 13 percent since 2000. The annual value for the 2010 ozone season was 0.066 ppm. Th e 2010 design value is 0.067 ppm, well below the1997 standard of 0.08 (effectively 0.084) ppm.

 

### The absence of SIP motor vehicle control measures. No SIP vehicle control measures have been needed and none proposed for the York County nonattainment area.

 

### Historical trends and future projections of the growth of motor vehicle emissions. As

table 4.2-5 above indicates, the State projects decr eases in motor vehicle emissions. This assertion is supported by EPA’s discussi on of its approval of VOC insignificance for the Triangle Area of North Carolina ( http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/EPAAIR/2007/October/Day-03/a19513.htm .) In this Federal Register notice, EPA

comments on North Carolina’s documentation showing an anticipated increase of 25- 30 percent in VMT for the Triangle Are a, during which time on-road VOC emissions are expected to decline by 50 percent. Although the York County nonattainment area may show an increase in VMTs in the futu re, the vehicle emissions are expected to decline similarly to the dec lines in the Triangle area.

4.4 Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

According to Section 93.118 of the transportati on conformity rule, a maintenance plan must establish MVEBs for the last ye ar of the maintenance plan, in this case, 2022. Through the interagency consultation process, it was decided that interim MVEBs would also be set for the year 2013 in the RFATS area.Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### The MVEBs will be set in terms of kg/day. During the preparation of the York County

nonattainment area attainment demonstration in 2007 it was determined through interagency consultation that kg per day would be the mo st appropriate unit to use for MVEBs and transportation conformity.

Table 4.4-1 shows the York County nona ttainment area on-road mobile NO

x 

### and VOC emissions expressed in tons per day and the correspond ing kilograms per day values for 2013 and 2022.

Table 4.4-1: On-road Mobile Source NO

x 

### and VOC Emissions
York County Nonattainment Area

2013 2022
Pollutant Tons/day Kg/day Tons/day Kg/day

NO

x 

### 8.73 7,924 4.42 4,011

VOC 3.14 2,846 2.14 1,939



### Upon the EPA’s affirmative adequacy finding for the partial county MVEBs, as shown in Table 4.4-2, they will become the applicable MVEBs fo r the York County nonattainment area. Should EPA agree with SCDHEC that the contributi on from on-road mobile VOC emissions is insignificant for the future attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS, no VOC budget will be required.

Table 4.4-2: York County Nonattainment Area

NO

x 

### and VOC MVEBs for 2013 and 2022
MVEB (Kilograms/day) Pollutant 2013 2022

NO

x 

### 7,924 4,011

VOC 2,846 1,939



### The MOVES Technical Guidance document directs that all processes, including refueling emissions, be included in MOVES work for SIPS or regional conformity analysis. In South Carolina, however, these processes are accounted for in the area source inventory and have not been included in previous budgets or conformity analysis. For this reason, these processes have

not been included in the invent ories or the MVEB for this re designation demonstration and maintenance plan. Refueling emissions are in cluded separately in Table 4.4-3 for the budget years of 2013 and 2022 for informational purposes only.

Table 4.4-3: York County Nonattainment Area

NO

x 

### and VOC Refueling Emissions for 2013 and 2022
Kilograms/day Refueling Emissions

2013 2022

NO

x 

### 00

VOC 240.03 143.85Revision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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## 5.0 DATA FILES PROVIDED ON DVD

This section contains a list of all data files which were used in the MOVES2010a runs and are

saved on the attached DVD. All of these files are in EXCEL (.xls) format, except the runspecs

which come out of MOVES2010a and are saved as an .mrs file.

2010 DATA : York_2011redesignation_2010_runspec.mrs York_2011redesignation_2010_output.xls York_2011redesignation_2010_hpmsvtypeyear.xls York_2011redesignation_2010_ monthvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2010_dayvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation _2010_hourvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2010_s ourcetypepopulation.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru2022_met.xls York_2011redesignation_2010_avgspeeddistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2010_agedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2010_fuel.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru20 22_roadtypedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thr u2022_fuelengfraction.xls

2013 DATA: York_2011redesignation_2013_runspec.mrs York_2011redesignation_2013_output.xls York_2011redesignation_2013_hpmsvtypeyear.xls York_2011redesignation_2013_ monthvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2013_dayvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation _2013_hourvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2013_s ourcetypepopulation.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru2022_met.xls York_2011redesignation_2013_avgspeeddistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2013_agedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2013thru2022_fuel.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru20 22_roadtypedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thr u2022_fuelengfraction.xls

2016 DATA: York_2011redesignation_2016_runspec.mrs York_2011redesignation_2016_output.xls York_2011redesignation_2016_hpmsvtypeyear.xls York_2011redesignation_2016_ monthvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2016_dayvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation _2016_hourvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2016_s ourcetypepopulation.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru2022_met.xls York_2011redesignation_2016_avgspeeddistribution.xlsRevision to the South Carolina Air Quality Implementation Plan Appendix C

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### York_2011redesignation_2016_agedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2013thru2022_fuel.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru20 22_roadtypedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thr u2022_fuelengfraction.xls

2019 DATA: York_2011redesignation_2019_runspec.mrs York_2011redesignation_2019_output.xls York_2011redesignation_2019_hpmsvtypeyear.xls York_2011redesignation_2019_ monthvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2019_dayvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation _2019_hourvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2019_s ourcetypepopulation.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru2022_met.xls York_2011redesignation_2019_avgspeeddistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2019_agedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2013thru2022_fuel.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru20 22_roadtypedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thr u2022_fuelengfraction.xls

2022 DATA: York_2011redesignation_2022_runspec.mrs York_2011redesignation_2022_output.xls York_2011redesignation_2022_hpmsvtypeyear.xls York_2011redesignation_2022_ monthvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2022_dayvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation _2022_hourvmtfraction.xls York_2011redesignation_2022_s ourcetypepopulation.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru2022_met.xls York_2011redesignation_2022_avgspeeddistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2022_agedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2013thru2022_fuel.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thru20 22_roadtypedistribution.xls York_2011redesignation_2010thr u2022_fuelengfraction.xls