UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NC 27711



## OCT 2 3 2015

OFFICE OF

AIR QUALITY PLANNING

AND STANDARDS

MEMORANDUM

SUBJECT:

FROM:

TO: Appendix W Webinar for Transportat!o /**P;a;er ~**  

# J 

# 6)

.

Chris Owen

, Physical Scientist 

# /J f**~/.., ~**  Air Quality Modeling Group

,

# C4:0~ Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

Proposed Regulatory Docket No. EP A-HQ-OAR-2015-0310

On Thursday

, October 1

, 2015

, the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) and

the Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) hosted a webinar for the transportation
planning community on the proposed changes to Appendix W. The webinar presented slides
given at the 11th Conference on Air Quality Modeling along with additional details from the

" Technical Support Document (TSD) for Replacement of CALINE3 with AERMOD for
Transportation Related Air Quality Analyses" document

, Docket ID No. EPAHQ-OAR-2015-

0310-0027

. The presentation was provided to all participants via email and is included as an

attachment to this docket submission. The webinar had 105 registered attendees

, with 66 of the
registered attendees who attended the webinar (including 15 EPA employees). The registration

and attendance list is also included as an attachment to this docket submission. Several clarifying
questions were asked

, which were answered by EPA staff during the webinar.

cc: George Bridgers

, C439-0l

Attachments: Overview of Proposed Revisions to Appendix W Webinar for Transportation

Stakeholders

, October 1, 2015

Webinar Registration and Attendance List

Recycled/Recyclable •Printed with Vegetable Oii Based Inks on 100% Recycled Paper (40% Post consumer)

# Overview of Proposed 

# Revisions to Appendix W

Webinar for Transportation Stakeholders

October 1, 2015

# Webinar Overview

• Webinar logistics



# • Schedule for Appendix W revision

• Guideline Overview

• Proposal for AERMOD as the preferred model for



# mobile sources

• Modeling considerations for mobile sources

• Specific changes to AERMOD



# • Next steps

2

# Webinar Logistics

• Webinar slides will be posted to:



# – http://www3.epa.gov/ttn/scram/11thmodconf.htm

• Please use the Q & A pod within the Adobe Connect 

# panel to send questions

NOTE: Please ensure that your computer’s volume is properly adjusted

3

# Schedule for Appendix W Revision

• Proposed Rulemaking, “Revision to the Guideline on Air 

# Quality Models” published July 29, 2015

• EPA will accept public comments on the proposal for 90 

# days, through October 27, 2015

• Final Rulemaking, “Revision to the Guideline on Air 

# Quality Models ” anticipated Spring 2016

4

# Guideline Overview Setting the Foundation: Sections 1

- 3

5 

# • Section 1: Introduction

– Purpose and Applicability of the Guideline



# • Section 2: Overview of Model Use

– Suitability of Models (Several factors)



# – Sophistication of Air Quality Models (Screening/Refined)



# • Section 3: Preferred & Alternative Air Quality Models

– Preferred models: Conditions for Appendix A models

– Alternative models: Conditions and their approval

– Role of Model Clearinghouse

# Guideline Overview Identifying Modeling Approaches: Sections 4

- 6

• Section 4: Models for “inert pollutants’

– AERSCREEN as screening model

– AERMOD Modeling System as preferred model

– Multi

- tiered approach for NO2



# • Section 5: Models for O3 & Secondary PM2.5

– No preferred model or technique

– Recommends two

- tiered approach with detailed guidance



# • Section 6: Modeling for Air Quality Related Values &
Other Govt Programs

– Role of FLMs, FLAG & AQRVs (visibility & deposition)

– BOEM & OCS air quality modeling

– FAA and use of AEDT for air quality assessments 6

# Guideline Overview How to Inform & Apply Models: Sections 7

- 9

• Section 7: General Modeling Considerations

– Recommendations for dispersion modeling

– Section 7.2.3 Mobile Sources



# • Section 8: Model Input Data

– Modeling Domain & Source Data

– Background Concentrations

– Meteorological Input Data



# • Section 9: Regulatory Application of Models

– Modeling Protocol

– M ulti

- stage approach to demonstrating compliance

– Use of Measured Data in lieu of Model Estimates 7

# Proposal for AERMOD as the Preferred

Model for Mobile Sources

8

# Proposal for AERMOD as the Preferred

Model for Mobile Sources

• EPA is proposing to replace CALINE3, CAL3QHC, 

# and CAL3QHCR with AERMOD as the Appendix A preferred dispersion model for all mobile source modeling of inert pollutants

• Proposal is based on the following:

– AERMOD has updated dispersion science relative to CALINE3

– Model intercomparisons show that AERMOD outperforms CALINE3

– Simplified implementation of mobile source modeling for 

# CAA requirements



# • Updates to Sections 4.2.3 and 7.2.3 of the proposed Appendix W

9

# CALINE3 Background/History

• CALINE3 developed by Benson (1979).

– Dispersion theory based on “P

- G stability classes”

– Single meteorological condition



# • CAL3QHC developed from CALINE3 for screening

– Added queueing algorithm for emissions from intersections



# • CAL3QHCR developed from CAL3QHC for refined 

# analyses

– Added the ability to use 1

- year of meteorological data, hourly
emissions variation, additional averaging periods

– Met preprocessor only available for very old met data



# • CALINE3 replaced by CALINE4 (Benson, 1984 )

10

# AERMOD Background/History

• Promulgated as the EPA’s preferred dispersion model for most applications in 2005 revisions to 

# Appendix W

• Reflects state of the science dispersion model formulation, i.e.,

– Planetary boundary layer (PBL) scaling parameter to 

# characterize stability and determine dispersion rates

– Monin

- Obukhov (M

- O) similarity profiling of winds near the surface

– In replacing ISC3 in 2005, one of the major technical advancements was to replace the P

- G stability class 

# dispersion estimates (same as CALINE3) with the turbulence

- based dispersion rates consistent with PBL and M

- O

11

# Model Performance Evaluations and

Intercomparisons

• Result summaries in the following slides are based on Heist et



# al. (2013), Estimating near

- road pollutant dispersion: A model

inter

- comparison, Trans. Res. D

., 93

- 105 www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920913001223

• Published findings from two field studies with emissions of SF6 tracer specifically designed for evaluation of mobile emission modeling



# – CALTRANS99 tracer experiment

– Idaho Falls barrier tracer experiment

12

# CALTRANS Study: Model performance summary

13 

# • Model statistics show that
AERMOD/RLINE almost

identical

• CALINE overpredicts • Q

- Q plot shows that AERMOD is best at highest

concentrations CALINE3

CALINE4 CALINE3



# CALINE4

# Idaho Falls Tracer Study : Model performance summary

14 

# • Q

- Q plot shows that
AERMOD/RLINE is best at highest concentrations

• Model statistics show that
AERMOD/ADMS almost

identical

• CALINE underpredicts

CALINE4

CALINE4

# Comparison of AERMOD and CAL3QHC

for CO Hot

- spot Screening

• Included in the Technical Support Document for Replacement of CALINE3 with AERMOD for Transportation Related Air Quality Analyses

• A simple one mile highway segment was modeled 

# using MOVES to generate CO emissions

• These emissions then used in both CAL3QHC and
AERMOD

– Conditions assumed in CAL3QHC were replicated to the extent possible in AERMOD

15

# Streamlined Implementation for Mobile Sources

• Appendix W NPRM will bring commonality and consistency in modeling analyses for EPA regulatory applications

– AERMOD already preferred for PM 2.5 

# , PM 10 

# , and NO 2



# – One model for mobile sources rather than 4

– AERMOD has more options for source characterization and computation of design values

– FAA uses AERMOD in their EDMS/AEDT

• EPA fully supports AERMOD with continued development 

# and updates to meet regulatory needs and issues

16

# EPA Transition Plans Under Appendix W

NPRM

• EPA is taking comment on transition period from
CALINE3 to AERMOD in NPRM

– P roposing a 1 year transition period after final rule, i.e., slightly less than 2 years from now until formal transition
to AERMOD



# • EPA plans to provide training

– Training package with examples

– Webinars and trainings for stakeholders

– Air Pollution Training Institute course # 423, Air pollution dispersion models www.apti

- learn.net /



# – Project level training for Hot

- spot analyses

17

# Relevant Docket Items

• Document Title: Technical Support Document (TSD) for Replacement of CALINE3 with AERMOD for 

# Transportation Related Air Quality Analyses, EPA

Document EPA

- 454/B

- 15

- 002

• www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/11thmodconf/CAL3_AERMOD_ 

# Replacement_TSD.pdf

18

# Modeling Considerations for Mobile Sources

19

# Modeling Considerations for Mobile Sources

• Screening of mobile sources can be accomplished using screening meteorology

– E.g., MAKEMET component of AERSCREEN

– Hourly concentrations can be scaled up using ratios



# • The Technical Support Document (slide 15) provides an example of using AERMOD and MAKEMET for mobile source screening

• Additional examples and training will be provided (slide 17)

20

# Modeling Considerations for Mobile Sources

• Mobile sources can be modeled in AERMOD as a



# series of either area or volume sources

– LINE is one type of area source



# • Important characteristics for both area and volume

sources include

– plume release height,

– source width, and

– initial dispersion characteristics



# • Consult EPA’s quantitative PM hot

- spot guidance

• EPA recommends line/area sources over volume

sources

-- easier to characterize them correctly

21

# Specific Changes to AERMOD

• Proposed new options



# • Bug fixes

22

# Proposed New Options

• EPA has proposed in the NPRM that the following options be incorporated into the regulatory versions of
AERMOD and AERMET:

– The ADJ_U* option in AERMET;

– The LowWind3 option in AERMOD;

– The BUOYLINE option in AERMOD for modeling buoyant line sources; and

– The POINTCAP and POINTHOR source type options in AERMOD to model capped and horizontal stacks.

23

# AERMOD Bug Fixes

• EPA updated regulatory version from v14134 to



# v15181 (June 30, 2015 ) to address several bug fixes

• In the NPRM, EPA has proposed to incorporate specific updates to the regulatory version that are the subject of public review and comment

– These options have thus remained “beta” in v15181 to allow for public testing & evaluation

– Most address stationary sources



# • Would be codified as part of the final rule action, as appropriate

24

# Next Steps

• Comment period ends October 27, 2015

• Details on how to submit comments found in the Federal Register notice (80 FR 45340)

• See EPA’s Support Center for Regulatory 

# Atmospheric Modeling (scram) website for additional

information: www3.epa.gov/scram001/

– Models, applications, tools



# • See EPA’s transportation conformity website for PM
and CO hot

- spot guidance: www3.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/


# projectlevel

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