# Natural Haze Levels II:



# Application of the New IMPROVE

Algorithm to Natural Species

Concentrations Estimates

Final Report by the

Natural Haze Levels II Committee to the



# RPO Monitoring/Data Analysis Workgroup

# Note: This presentation contains substantial additional information in the notes

section of PowerPoint that can be seen in the bottom panel of the “Normal”

view mode, and can be printed by selecting “Notes Pages” from the “Print

what” selection of the “Print” menu (go to “Files” on the top tool bar and select

“Print”). You can also use “Preview” for the “Notes Pages” to more easily read

the notes on your computer monitor.

These notes were prepared

1. to aid those hearing the presentation by relieving them of the burden of taking

as many notes;

2. to allow those who haven’t heard the presentation to understand it by providing

the additional information that is spoken during presentations; and

3. to provide a more complete documentation of the natural haze levels II

approach for anyone who may want to understand it

For additional information contact Marc Pitchford at Marc.Pitchford@NOAA.gov

# Overall Goal

• Estimate 20% best and 20% worst natural haze

levels for visibility

- protected class I areas using

the new IMPROVE algorithm for estimating light

extinction from aerosol species concentrations.

– Needed for Regional Haze Rule (RHR) rate of progress

glide slopes where the new IMPROVE algorithm is

used to characterize current haze levels

– Should minimize the technical problems identified in

the RHR default natural haze levels that were

developed using the original IMPROVE algorithm

# Default Natural Haze Levels Approach

• Typical haze level estimates for East and West

– Typical light extinction by applying the original

IMPROVE algorithm to Trijonis natural species

concentration estimates for East and West

– Convert to haze index (deciview units)



# • 20% best and 20% worst haze estimate for East

and West

– Best = typical

– 1.28(standard deviation)

– Worst = typical + 1.28(standard deviation)



# – Standard deviation is 3dv for the East and 2dv for the

West (corresponds to the 10 th 

# and 90 th 

# percentile)

# Criticism of the Default Approach

• Limitations of the original IMPROVE algorithm

– Biased light extinction estimates at the extremes

– Uses an outdated organic compound mass to carbon

mass ratio

– No sea salt (important at a few sites)



# – Rayleigh scattering of 10Mm

- 1 

# used for all site



# • Flawed assumptions used to estimate 20% best

and worst conditions

– Haze index for natural conditions are not likely to be



# normally distributed due to inclusion of Rayleigh

scattering

– 10 th 

# and 90 th 

# percentiles don’t correspond to the best

and worst conditions if the distribution were normal

# Natural Haze Levels II Approach

• Adjust each of the measured major species

concentrations to the Trijonis natural concentration



# estimates

– Multiply each species concentration at a site by the site

specific ratio of the (Trijonis natural estimate) divided by the

(annual mean concentration) for the species for the 5 year

baseline period



# – If the annual mean concentration for a species is smaller than

the Trijonis natural estimate, make no adjustment

– Current sea salt levels are taken to be natural levels



# • Apply the new IMPROVE algorithm to the Trijonis



# adjusted species concentrations at each site to produce

a distribution of natural light extinction values

• Convert to deciview and calculate the mean of the 20%

best and 20% worst haze levels

# Trijonis

- Adjusted Specie Frequency Distributions

• Sipsey Alabama

• Each aerosol species

mass concentration

frequency distribution

scaled to estimated natural

mass concentrations

• If current species mean is

less than natural estimate,

the that species is not

scaled



# • Geometric shape of

species distributions is

unchanged Current 2000

- 2004

Natural Estimate Hanging bars

Solid

- current mean

Dashed

- natural estimate mean

# Current and Natural Haze Frequency Distributions

• Sipsey Alabama

• Natural scenario joint distribution shape is derived from scaling current



# aerosol species mass concentrations to natural condition estimates

• Allows estimation of best and worst 20% dv or aerosol species

extinction

# Natural Haze Levels II

# Default Natural Haze Levels

# Natural Haze Levels II,

10

- Year Rate of Progress Glide Path

# Default Natural Haze Levels,

10

- Year Rate of Progress Glide Path

# Status and Next Steps

• This presentation is the final report of the Natural

Haze Levels II Committee of the RPO



# Monitoring/Data Analysis Workgroup

• Review comments received by August 25, 2006

will be considered in preparation of the RPO

Monitoring/Data Analysis Workgroup approved



# approach

• Workgroup approved approach is forwarded to the

RPOs for their consideration by August 31, 2006

• This presentation, including the natural haze



# estimates and any modifications will be made

available on VIEWS

# Appendix

• Tables of Natural Haze Level II Estimates

for all IMPROVE Sites by RPO and StateSite Name State Complete

Years Worst

Haze

Natural II

(dv) Worst

Haze

Baseline

(dv) 10

- year

Glide

Slope (dv) Class I Area(s)

CACR1 Caney Creek Arkansas 3 11.7 26.4 2.4 Caney Creek

UPBU1 Upper Buffalo Wilderness Arkansas 5 11.7 26.3 2.4 Upper Buffalo

BRET1 Breton* Louisiana 4 12.3 0.0 0.0 Breton

BOWA1 Boundary Waters Canoe Area Minnesota 2 11.6 20.0 1.4 Boundary Waters Canoe Area

VOYA2 Voyageurs NP #2 Minnesota 5 12.2 19.3 1.2 Voyageurs

HEGL1 Hercules

- Glades Missouri 3 11.4 26.7 2.6 Hercules

- Glade

MING1 Mingo Missouri 1 12.5 29.5 2.8 Mingo

WIMO1 Wichita Mountains Oklahoma 3 7.6 23.8 2.7 Wichita Mountains

BIBE1 Big Bend NP Texas 4 7.2 17.3 1.7 Big Bend

GUMO1 Guadalupe Mountains NP Texas 5 6.8 17.2 1.7 Guadalupe Mountains; Carlsbad Caverns 

# CENRAP

MANE

- VU & Midwest RPO

Site Name State Complete

Years Worst

Haze

Natural II

(dv) Worst

Haze

Baseline

(dv) 10

- year

Glide

Slope (dv) Class I Area(s)

ACAD1 Acadia NP Maine 5 12.5 22.9 1.7 Acadia

MOOS1 Moosehorn NWR Maine 5 12.1 21.7 1.6 Moosehorn; Roosevelt Campobello

GRGU1 Great Gulf Wilderness New

Hampshire 4 12.1 22.8 1.8 Great Gulf; Presidential Range

- Dry

River

BRIG1 Brigantine NWR New Jersey 5 12.3 29.0 2.8 Brigantine

LYBR1 Lye Brook Wilderness Vermont 5 11.9 24.4 2.1 Lye Brook

ISLE1 Isle Royale NP Michigan 5 12.5 20.7 1.4 Isle Royale

SENE1 Seney Michigan 5 12.8 24.2 1.9 SeneySite Name State Complet

e Years Worst

Haze

Natural II

(dv) Worst

Haze

Baseline

(dv) 10

- year

Glide Slope

(dv) Class I Area(s)

SIPS1 Sipsy Wilderness Alabama 4 11.1 29.0 3.0 Sipsey

CHAS1 Chassahowitzka NWR Florida 3 11.3 26.1 2.5 Chassahowitzka

EVER1 Everglades NP Florida 4 12.3 22.3 1.7 Everglades

SAMA1 St. Marks Florida 2 11.6 26.0 2.4 Saint Marks

COHU1 Cohutta Georgia 2 11.2 30.3 3.2 Cohutta

OKEF1 Okefenokee NWR Georgia 5 11.5 27.1 2.6 Okefenokee; Wolf Island

MACA1 Mammoth Cave NP Kentucky 5 11.2 31.4 3.4 Mammoth Cave

LIGO1 Linville Gorge North

Carolina 4 11.3 28.8 2.9 Linville Gorge

SHRO1 Shining Rock Wilderness North

Carolina 2 11.6 27.9 2.7 Shining Rock

SWAN1 Swanquarter North

Carolina 2 12.0 25.5 2.2 Swanquarter

ROMA1 Cape Romain NWR South

Carolina 5 12.2 26.5 2.4 Cape Romain

GRSM1 Great Smoky Mountains NP Tennessee 5 11.3 30.3 3.2 Great Smoky Mountains; Joyce

Kilmer

- Slickrock

JARI1 James River Face Wilderness Virginia 4 11.2 29.1 3.0 James River Face

SHEN1 Shenandoah NP Virginia 5 11.4 29.3 3.0 Shenandoah

DOSO1 Dolly Sods Wilderness West Virginia 5 10.4 29.0 3.1 Dolly Sods; Otter Creek

VIIS1 Virgin Islands NP Virgin Islands 4 10.8 17.0 1.0 Virgin Islands 

# VISTAS + VISite Name State Complete

Years Worst

Haze

Natural II

(dv) Worst

Haze

Baseline

(dv) 10

- year

Glide

Slope (dv) Class I Area(s)

DENA1 Denali NP Alaska 5 7.4 9.9 0.4 Denali

SIME1 Simeonof Alaska 3 15.7 18.6 0.5 Simeonof

TUXE1 Tuxedni Alaska 3 11.5 14.1 0.4 Tuxedni

BALD1 Mount Baldy Arizona 2 6.6 11.5 0.8 Mount Baldy

CHIR1 Chiricahua NM Arizona 5 7.3 13.4 1.0 Chiricahua NM; Chiricahua W;

Galiuro

GRCA2 Hance Camp at Grand Canyon NP Arizona 4 7.2 11.7 0.7 Grand Canyon

IKBA1 Ike's Backbone Arizona 4 6.7 13.3 1.1 Mazatzal; Pine Mountain

PEFO1 Petrified Forest NP Arizona 5 6.6 13.2 1.1 Petrified Forest

SAGU1 Saguaro NM Arizona 3 6.5 14.8 1.4 Saguaro

SIAN1 Sierra Ancha Arizona 4 6.7 13.7 1.2 Sierra Ancha

SYCA1 Sycamore Canyon Arizona 4 6.8 15.3 1.4 Sycamore Canyon

TONT1 Tonto NM Arizona 3 6.7 13.9 1.2 Superstition 

# WRAPSite Name State Complete

Years Worst

Haze

Natural II

(dv) Worst

Haze

Baseline

(dv) 10

- year

Glide

Slope (dv) Class I Area(s)

AGTI1 Agua Tibia California 4 7.7 23.5 2.6 Agua Tibia

BLIS1 Bliss SP (TRPA) California 4 6.2 12.6 1.1 Desolation; Mokelumne

DOME1 Dome Lands Wilderness California 4 7.5 19.4 2.0 Dome Land

HOOV1 Hoover California 3 8.0 12.9 0.8 Hoover

JOSH1 Joshua Tree NP California 4 7.3 19.6 2.1 Joshua Tree

KAIS1 Kaiser California 2 7.3 14.8 1.2 Ansel Adams; Kaiser; John Muir

LABE1 Lava Beds NM California 4 7.9 15.1 1.2 Lava Beds; South Warner

LAVO1 Lassen Volcanic NP California 5 7.4 14.1 1.1 Lassen Volcanic; Caribou;

Thousand Lakes; Caribou;

Thousand Lakes

PINN1 Pinnacles NM California 4 8.1 18.5 1.7 Pinnacles; Ventana

PORE1 Point Reyes National Seashore California 3 15.9 22.8 1.2 Point Reyes

RAFA1 San Rafael California 2 7.8 18.9 1.8 San Rafael

REDW1 Redwood NP California 5 14.0 18.5 0.7 Redwood

SAGA1 San Gabriel California 3 7.1 19.9 2.1 San Gabriel; Cucamonga

SAGO1 San Gorgonio Wilderness California 4 7.4 22.2 2.5 San Gorgonio; San Jacinto

SEQU1 Sequoia NP California 3 7.6 24.6 2.8 Sequoia; Kings Canyon

TRIN1 Trinity California 3 8.3 16.3 1.3 Marble Mountain; Yolla Bolly

- Middle

Eel

YOSE1 Yosemite NP California 5 7.7 17.6 1.7 Yosemite; Emigrant 

# WRAPSite Name State Complete

Years Worst

Haze

Natural II

(dv) Worst

Haze

Baseline

(dv) 10

- year

Glide

Slope (dv) Class I Area(s)

GRSA1 Great Sand Dunes NM Colorado 5 6.7 12.8 1.0 Great Sand Dunes

MEVE1 Mesa Verde NP Colorado 5 6.9 13.0 1.0 Mesa Verde

MOZI1 Mount Zirkel Wilderness Colorado 4 6.6 10.5 0.7 Mount Zirkel; Rawah

ROMO1 Rocky Mountain NP Colorado 5 7.3 13.8 1.1 Rocky Mountain

WEMI1 Weminuche Wilderness Colorado 4 6.3 10.3 0.7 La Garita; Black Canyon of the Gunnison;

Weminuche

WHRI1 White River NF Colorado 4 6.7 9.6 0.5 Flat Tops; Maroon Bells

- Snowmass; West

Elk; Eagles Nest

HALE1 Haleakala NP Hawaii 4 7.5 13.3 1.0 Haleakala

HAVO1 Hawaii Volcanoes NP Hawaii 4 7.2 18.9 1.9 Hawaii Volcanoes

CRMO1 Craters of the Moon NM Idaho 4 7.6 14.0 1.1 Craters of the Moon

SAWT1 Sawtooth NF Idaho 4 6.5 13.8 1.2 Sawtooth

CABI1 Cabinet Mountains Montana 4 7.6 14.1 1.1 Cabinet Mountains

GAMO1 Gates of the Mountains Montana 4 6.5 11.3 0.8 Gates of the Mountains

GLAC1 Glacier NP Montana 3 9.1 20.5 1.9 Glacier

MELA1 Medicine Lake Montana 5 8.0 17.7 1.6 Medicine Lake

MONT1 Monture Montana 4 7.8 14.5 1.1 Bob Marshall; Mission Mountains;

Scapegoat

SULA1 Sula Peak Montana 4 7.5 13.4 1.0 Selway

- Bitterroot; Anaconda

- Pintler

ULBE1 UL Bend Montana 4 8.2 15.1 1.1 UL Bend 

# WRAPSite Name State Complete

Years Worst

Haze

Natural II

(dv) Worst

Haze

Baseline

(dv) 10

- year

Glide

Slope (dv) Class I Area(s)

JARB1 Jarbidge Wilderness Nevada 4 8.0 12.1 0.7 Jarbidge

BAND1 Bandelier NM New

Mexico 5 6.3 12.2 1.0 Bandelier

BOAP1 Bosque del Apache New

Mexico 3 6.8 13.8 1.2 Bosque del Apache

GICL1 Gila Wilderness New

Mexico 4 6.8 13.1 1.1 Gila

SACR1 Salt Creek New

Mexico 4 6.9 18.0 1.9 Salt Creek

SAPE1 San Pedro Parks New

Mexico 4 6.2 10.2 0.7 San Pedro Parks

WHIT1 White Mountain New

Mexico 3 6.9 13.7 1.1 White Mountain

WHPE1 Wheeler Peak New

Mexico 3 6.6 10.4 0.6 Wheeler Peak; Pecos

LOST1 Lostwood North

Dakota 5 8.1 19.6 1.9 Lostwood

THRO1 Theodore Roosevelt North

Dakota 4 7.9 17.7 1.6 Theodore Roosevelt

CRLA1 Crater Lake NP Oregon 3 8.0 13.7 1.0 Gearhart Mountain; Crater Lake; Diamond

Peak; Mountain Lakes

HECA1 Hells Canyon Oregon 3 8.4 18.6 1.7 Hells Canyon

KALM1 Kalmiopsis Oregon 4 9.5 15.5 1.0 Kalmiopsis

MOHO1 Mount Hood Oregon 4 8.5 14.9 1.1 Mount Hood

STAR1 Starkey Oregon 4 9.0 18.6 1.6 Eagle Cap; Strawberry Mountain

THSI1 Three Sisters Wilderness Oregon 5 8.9 15.3 1.1 Three Sisters; Mount Jefferson; Mount

Washington 

# WRAPSite Name State Complete

Years Worst Haze

Natural II

(dv) Worst Haze

Baseline

(dv) 10

- year

Glide

Slope (dv) Class I Area(s)

BADL1 Badlands NP South

Dakota 5 8.1 17.1 1.5 Badlands

WICA1 Wind Cave South

Dakota 5 7.8 15.8 1.3 Wind Cave

BRCA1 Bryce Canyon NP Utah 5 7.0 11.6 0.8 Bryce Canyon

CANY1 Canyonlands NP Utah 5 6.5 11.2 0.8 Canyonlands; Arches

CAPI1 Capitol Reef NP Utah 2 5.7 10.0 0.7 Capitol Reef

ZION1 Zion Utah 3 7.1 13.2 1.0 Zion

MORA1 Mount Rainier NP Washington 4 8.6 18.2 1.6 Mount Rainier

NOCA1 North Cascades Washington 2 8.1 14.0 1.0 North Cascades; Glacier Peak

OLYM1 Olympic Washington 3 8.5 16.7 1.4 Olympic

PASA1 Pasayten Washington 4 8.4 15.2 1.1 Pasayten

SNPA1 Snoqualmie Pass Washington 4 8.5 17.8 1.6 Alpine Lakes

WHPA1 White Pass Washington 4 8.5 12.8 0.7 Mount Adams; Goat Rocks

BRID1 Bridger Wilderness Wyoming 5 6.7 11.1 0.7 Bridger; Fitzpatrick

NOAB1 North Absaroka Wyoming 3 6.9 11.5 0.8 North Absaroka; Washakie

YELL2 Yellowstone NP 2 Wyoming 5 6.6 11.8 0.9 Yellowstone; Red Rock Lakes; Grand

Teton; Teton 

# WRAP