# 20 12 /14 B EGINNING 

# P OSTSECONDARY 

# S TUDENTS



# L ONGITUDINAL 

# S TUDY 

# : (BPS: 12 /14 ) F IELD 

# T EST

Supporting Statement Part A Request for OMB Review OMB # 1850 - 0 631 v. 7

Submitted by National Center for Education Statistics

U.S. Department of Education October 1 1 , 201 2ii 

## Contents **A. Justification**  **................................ ................................**  **................................ ................................**  **............. 1**  1. Circumstances Making Collection of Information Necessary ................................ ................................ ......... 1 a. Purpose of this Submission ................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 1 b. Summary of Study Design for BPS:12/14 ................................ ................................ ................................ 1 c. Legislative Authorization ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 3 2. Purpose and Uses of the Data ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 3 a. The BPS Cohort ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 3 b. Current Research and Policy Issues Related to BPS ................................ ................................ ................. 4 c. Previous Agency Use of the Data ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 8 3. Use of Information Technology ................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 8 4. Efforts to Identify Duplication ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 9 5. Method Used to Minimize Burden on Small Businesses ................................ ................................ ............... 10 6. Frequency of Data Collection ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 10 7. Special Circumstances of Data Collection ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 11 8. Consultants Outside the Agency ................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 11 9. Provision of Payments or Gifts to Respondents ................................ ................................ ............................ 11 10. Assurance of Confidentiality ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 12 11. Sensitive Questions ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 14 12. Estimates of Response Burden ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 14 13. Estimates of Cost to Respondents ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 15 14. Costs to the Federal Government ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 15 15. Reasons for Changes in Response Burden and Costs ................................ ................................ .................... 16 16. Publication Plans and Time Schedule ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 16 17. Approval to Not Display Expiration Date for OMB Approval ................................ ................................ ...... 17 18. Exceptions to Certification for Paperwork Reduction Act Submissions ................................ ....................... 17 Appendix A. Li nkages to Administrative Data Sources Appendix B. Data Security L anguage for Vendor Contracts Appendix C. Full - scale Sampling Specifications Appendix D. Bibliography of Publications Using BPS Data Appendix E. Technical Review Panel Contact List Appendix F. Confidentiality Agreements Appendix G . Letters and Contacting Materials Appendix H. Data Collection Instrumentiii 

## List of Tables Table 1. Chronology

of NPSAS and its longitudinal components ................................ ..................... 10 Table 2. Estimated BPS:12/14 field test cost and response burden ................................ ................... 15 Table 3. Costs to the National Center for Education Statistics for the BPS:12/14 field test ............. 15 Table 4. Contract costs for BPS:12/14 ................................ ................................ ............................... 16 Table 5. Operational schedule for BPS:12/14 ................................ ................................ .................... 171 

### A. **Justification 1.**  **Circumstances Making Collection of Information Necessary a.**  **Purpose of this Submission** The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) , within the U.S. Department of Education (ED), Institute of Education Sciences, is requesting clearance for data collection materials and procedures for the field test collection for the 2012/14 Beginning Postsecondary Students L ongitudinal Study ( BPS:12/14) first follow - up, including panel maintenance, student interview and reinterview, and administrative record matching. Following the field test study in 20 13 , NCES will submit a request for clearance of the BPS:12/14 full scale data collection to be conducted in spring 2014 . Because o nl y minimal changes are expected after the field test, NCES is requesting a waiver of the 60 - day Federal Register Notice for the full - scale collection clearance submission . The BPS longitudinal s tudy is designed to follow a cohort of students who enroll in postsecondary education for the first time during the same academic year , irrespective of date of high school completion . Th e study collects data on student persistence in, and completion of, postseco ndary education programs ; their transition to employment ; demographic characteristics ; and changes over time in their goals, marital status, income, and debt, among other indicators. Data from B PS are used to help researchers and policy makers better unders tand how financial aid influences persistence and completion, what percentages of students complete various degree programs , what earl y employ ment and wage outcomes are for certificate and degree attainers, and wh y students leave school . This study

is bein g conducted under contract # ED - IES - 09 - C - 0039 with RTIInternational 1 and its primary subcontractor, MPR Associates , as well as Coffey Consulting, LLC, Branch Associates, Research Support Services, and consultants Dr. Cy nthia Decker and Ms. Andrea Sy kes . **b. S**  **ummary**

**of S tud**  **y Design for BPS:12/14**  The BPS:12/14 field test sample will consist of students eligible to participate in the NPSAS:12 field test study

who first began postsecondary education during the 2010

– 11 academic year at U.S. institutions. The BPS:1 2/14 field test student interview, for which clearance is requested, will involve a web - based interview conducted in phases: the first phase

—the earl y response phase

— will offer sample members the opportunity to complete the BPS interview online with little or no intervention from telephone interviewers. During the early response phase, which will be the first 3 weeks of data collection, sample members will be eligible to receive $30 for a completed interview. Two central experiments will be conducted during the field test. The first experiment is designed to determine whether the estimated time burden of the interview affects the likelihood that base year nonrespondents will participate. Half of the base year nonrespondents, and all base year respondent s, will be asked to complete the full, field test interview, while half of the base year nonrespondents will be asked to complete a shorter, modified version of the interview. Participation rates for the two nonrespondent groups will be compared both durin g the earl y response phase and throughout the entire

1 RTI International is a trade name of Research Triangle Institute.2

data collection. All earl y response phase nonrespondents will move into the second data collection phase

— production interviewing

—in which outbound calls will be made by call center staff to remaining sample members. Production interviewing will continue for 2 weeks without additional intervention; sample members will be eligible for a $30 incentive for a completed interview. Throughout data collection, sample members offered the modified interview will only need to complete the shorter interview. For the second experiment, any cases that are still nonrespondents at the end of the 2 - week production interviewing period will be randoml y divided into an experimental and control group, and an initial Mahalano bis distance calculated. Mahalanobis distance defines the distance betwee n an individual case and a group centroid; c ases with the larger distances tend to be those with the larger differences from the respondent group . Id entifying high - distance cases an d treating the m strategicall y, such as with a higher incentive , m ay boost their participation , reducing bias in estimates and improv ing anal yt ic power through higher sample sizes for the groups of analy tic interest. Those BPS:12/14 field test cases with the highest distances that had been assigned to the experimental group will be offered an increased incentive of $55, with the expectation that the increased incentive will increase the likelihood of participation among cases contributing most to bias at t he time. All other interview respondents will be eligible to receive a $30 incentive. Outbound calling will continue for two weeks; at all times sample members may complete the interview online. At the end of each of three subsequent 2 - week data collecti on periods, Mahalanobis distances will again be calculated for remaining nonrespondents. New cases in the experimental group with the largest calculated distances at each time point will be offered a $55 incentive; those high distance experimental cases already

being offered $55 will continue at that level. All other cases will remain at the $30 incentive level. Outbound calling will continue for the remainder of data collection. Throughout data collection, RTIwill monitor response rates for the entir e sample, and by key anal yt ic groups to ensure that minimum rates are being achieved. Batch and intensive tracing, case review, and other techniques for tracing and interviewing will be applied as needed across the sample. While Mahalanobis distance calculations will be acted upon at four time points, the calculations will be made every

week throughout data collection to better understand the dy namics of the values over time. Ultimately , this second experiment is designed to determine whether or not treatment of the high distance experimental group, i.e., the offer of the higher incentive, will reduce bias that would result if those high distance cases did not participate in the BPS:12/14 field test interview. Additional data for the BPS:12/14 field test student sample will be obtained from a variety of administrative data sources. Student financial aid data will be matched and downloaded from the Central Processing S ys tem (CPS), which houses and processes data contained in the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) forms. Data will also be obtained from the National Student L oan Data Sy stem (NSLDS), which contains both federal Pell Grant and Stafford Loan data, and the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) containing enrollment and degree attainm ent information provided by participating institutions. A description of linkages to administrative data sources can be found in Appendix A, and the security measures in place for these linkages are is provided in Appendix B.3

During full - scale data collection, an additional data source may be available from student records abstracted from institutions attended b y members of the BPS:12 cohort (full - scale sampling specifications are presented in Appendix C). The approach for abstraction of institution records will be tested as part of the Education Longitudinal Study :2002 (EL S:2002) Third Follow - Up (OMB #1850 - 0652 v.10 ). Although concurrent or contemporaneous collections of similar data have been successful for the purpose of determining how students pay for their postsecondary

education (e.g., in NPSAS), the EL S:2002 Financial Aid Feasibility

Study (FAFS) will evaluate the practicability for collecting the data retrospectivel y, with records that go back as far as 2004. Institutions will be asked to provide a borrowing history for the entire tenure of the identified EL S:2002 students who attended their institution. Longitudinal anal ys is of student financial aid records would allow examination of borrowing and debt trends over time, as well as the effect s of those trends on postsecondary persistence and attainment, and decisions about work and family . The results of the feasibility study will help provide information about the quality

of the data when collecting financial aid student records that span a number of ye ars and , ultimately , inform decisions on such efforts for the BPS first and second follow - up studies which would require retrospective collection to 2011 - 12 .

**c. Legislative A**  **uthorization** The BPS longitudinal s tudy is authorized by the Education Sciences Reform Act of 2002 (ESRA), 20 U.S.C. § 954 3 ) and is being conducted in close consultation with other offices and organizations within and outside the U. S. Department of Education (ED) . **2. Purpose and Uses of the Data**  **a. The BPS Cohort**  BPS :12/14 will provide data on beginning postsecondary students when they

entered postsecondary

education and 3 years later, describing who enters postsecondary education for the first time as well as what happens to them after their initial enrollment ( f or the field test, students entered postsecondary

education during the 2010 - 11 academic year, while for the full - scale data collection, during the 2011 - 12 academic ye ar) . BPS is unique as the only nationall y- representative study of all students beginning post secondary

education for the first time, including nontraditional students who delay postsecondary

entry and students in short - term vocational programs. Itis also the only study that follows students throughout the entire postsecondary education sy stem ove r a number of years and, therefore, provides a much more accurate portrait of these students’ persistence, attainment, and experiences than do the studies that focus solely on the first institution or rel y on institution - reported data alone. F or the first time with this iteration of BPS, the study features an oversample of students in public 2 - ye ar and for - profit institutions seeking educational certificates which will provide rich new data on wage and employ

ment outcomes for completers of subbaccalaureate educational credentials . Current economic conditions have increased interest in the relationship between subbaccalaureate credentials and employ ment outcomes. A recent NCES report used BPS:04/09 data to examine subbaccalaureate completers and noncompleters’ labor market outcomes 2 but , due to small sample sizes , was often unable

2 http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2012/2012273.pdf4

to detect significant differences among certificate students. Analy ses of subbaccalaureate students’ labor market outcomes will also be aided b y BPS:12/14’s expanded employ ment section which will collect an employ ment history

of all jobs respondents have held since starting postsecondary education. Even more employ ment details will be obtained from those who have left postsecondary education. Inaddition to post - enrollment employ ment, BPS provides data on such characteristics of beginning students as demographics, high school preparation, enrollment, employ ment during enrollment, financial aid and borrowing, and education and career expectations. These characteristics can be examined with respect to persistence, degree attainment, and employ ment outcomes. Developing a better understanding of the factors related to these three outcomes is the primary purpose of BPS. To this end, BPS:12/14 will publish a First Look Report and a large Web Table compendium that will report key statistics on how students with varying characteristics performed on these outcomes 3 years after starting their postsecond ary careers. A later BPS follow - up study (BPS:12/17) will explore these key outcomes over a longer period of time.

**b. Current Research and Policy**  **Issues Related to BPS** Persistence, attainment, and employ ment outcomes have long been important to BPS, and BPS:1 2/14 is more focused than ever on collecting data that are necessary for examining these outcomes. BPS:12/14 has adopted the human capital model as a research framework and n o w incorporates several new sets of questions that the latest research suggests are helpful in predicting the student outcomes of interest. These questions include students’ earnings potential given current education, their earnings expectations after completing anticipated credentials , the extent to which they prefer current over futur e rewards (also known as their discount rate), and their phy sical and emotional health. BPS provide s key

information in several areas of policy interest. The President’s American Graduation Initiative and prominent funders like the Lumina Foundation and Gates Foundation have set ambitious goals to increase Americans’ postsecondary education attainment over the next decade. Encouraging more students to enroll is one important part of meeting this objective, and the economic downturn has indeed resulted in hi gher enrollments. However, due in part to increased joblessness, the composition of enrollees has changed as well. BPS allows researchers to describe these enrollment changes and examin e their relationship with students’ postsecondary persistence, degree attainment rates, and employ

ment outcomes. Data from BPS:12/14 will permit estimation of overall changes in rates of degree attainment and major field of study, particularly with respect to majors in science, technology , engineering, and mathematics (or STE M )

—another area of focus in higher education policy . The White House’s Engage to Excel initiative, for example, seeks to produce one million additional college graduates in STEM to fill the projected gaps in America’s workforce. One of its primary goals is to increase the number of students who choose STEM majors and retain them through receipt of a postsec ondary

degree, with a special focus on engaging them during the first 2 years of a STEM - related degree program. Since the advent of the Great Recession, the relationship between the attainment of a postsecondary

credential and job prospects has become even more prominent in the national conversation. In his 2009 State of the Union address, President Obama called for every American to take at least one5

ye ar of education beyond high school

—including postsecondary occupational education. A recent report from the Georgetown Center on Education and the Economy (Carnevale et al, 2012) 3 notes that certificates “provide the outcomes that degree - see king students are looking for: gainful emplo ym ent” (p. 35) and that they

can also serve as gateway s to high level credentials, such as a college degree. This attention has brought to light certain weaknesses in our federal data collection sy stems, most n otably the paucity of information on the labor market value of non - degree credentials, including industry- recognized certifications, occupational licenses, and subbaccalaureate educational certificates. BPS is coordinating with the Interagency

Working Grou

p on Expanded Measures of Enrollment and Attainment (GEMEnA) to improve federal statistical data on these credentials. Data from the BPS:12/14 full - scale study will include an oversample of students who enter postsecondary education seeking to attain a sub baccalaureate educational certificate. These data will enable researchers and policy makers better understand the effect of certificate attainment, whether as a terminal occupational credential or as a path to a degree, on employ ment and wage outcomes. Tui tion cost s , financial aid, and student debt are also receiving considerable attention by lawmakers. The continued rise of tuition costs has prompted the Obama Administration to propose shifting aid to institutions that keep costs down and to propose a Race to the Top for postsecondary education, with the goal of improving college affordability and completion. The Student L oan and Fiscal Responsibility

Act of 2009 (SAFRA) temporaril y lowered interest rates on student loans and increased Pell Grant amounts wh ile restricting Pell Grant eligibility to shore up costs. Faced with government deficits, the extent to which these current rules will be continued is uncertain. However, student debt is increasingl y seen as a hardship and potential barrier for college graduates, and BPS can provide insight into the extent to which college costs, financial aid, and debt are related to persistence , attainment, and employ ment outcomes. Finally , policy

makers increasingl y focus on the alignment of skills with industry needs. Wh ether today ’s graduates are well - equipped for employ ment is the subject of considerable debate, and BPS is well - positioned to address this discussion. Similarly , new gainful employ ment regulations seek to ensure that students are able to obtain jobs and ea rn incomes in their chosen professions that allow them to repay their loans; on this subject, also, BPS provides a considerable amount of data. Some of the primary

research and policy

issues to be addressed with BPS:12/14 data include the following : Demographic Characteristics

 What are beginning students’ demographic characteristics (such as gender, race/ethnicity, disability status, age, financial dependency on parents, and income)?

 What proportion of beginning students come from key populations of interest, such as low income or first - generation college students, nontraditional college students, veterans, ethnic or racial minorities, and immigrants or children of immigrants?

 How have beginning postsecondary students’ demographic characteristics (e.g., income, health, dependency

status, marital status, and having dependents) changed over time?

3 Carnevale, Anthony P., Rose, Stephen J., and Hanson, Andrew R. (2012) Certificates: Gateway to Gainful Employment and College Degrees. Washington, DC: Georgetown Center on Education and the Economy.6

High School Academic Preparation

 What percentage of beginning postsecondary students are rece nt high school graduates and what percentage have a regular high school diploma?

 What is the highest math course beginning postsecondary students took in high school?

 How did beginning postsecondary students attending different types of institutions perfor m in high school , as measured, for example, by grade point average and standardized admissions tests?

 What proportion of beginning postsecondary students enter s postsecondary education with college credits?

 What percentage of beginning postsecondary students enroll in remedial courses when they start their postsecondary

education, and in which subjects are remedial courses most commonly

taken? Postsecondary Enrollment Characteristics and Experiences

 How are beginning postsecondary students distribut ed across different ty pe s of institutions? Across different degree programs?

 What fields of study do beginning postsecondary students pursue, and in which do they obtain degrees ?

 To what extent do students participate in online, night, and weekend courses and programs, and how does participation differ b y demographic characteristics, type of institution attended, and field of study?

 To what extent do students feel a sense of belonging at their institution and how is this related to their demographic charact eristics and other enrollment characteristics and experiences? How is this sense of belonging related to academic and employ ment outcomes? Employment During Enrollment

 What percentage of students work while enrolled , and of them, what proportion have a job related to their field of study?

 Of those who work while enrolled, how far do they work from home and school, how many hours per week do they

work, and how much do they earn? Financial Aid and Borrowing

 What ty

pes of financial support do dependent beginni ng students receive from their parents when they

begin their postsecondary education ?

 What proportion of beginning postsecondary students receives federal Pell Grants ?

 What proportion of beginning postsecondary students receives veterans or other Department of Defense education benefits?

 How does the percentage of beginning students taking out federal loans and the average amount borrowed vary

by demographic and enrollment characteristics?

 What is the amount of federal loan debt students acquire per credit earned and how does this differ b y students’ demographic, high school preparation, and enrollment characteristics?7

 What proportion of students borrow s private loans, in what amount, and how does this borrowing vary

by demographic characteristics and institution ty pe?

 What is the average cumulative debt of beginning students after 3 ye ars and what factors are related to the amount owed ?

 What kinds of borrowers struggle in repay ment and default on their student loans after 3 ye ars? Education and Career Expectations

 What degrees or certificates do students expect to attain, when do they expect to complete them, and how confident are they in these expectations?

 How much support do beginning students receive from their families and friends in their pursuit of their educational goals?

 To what positions do beginning students aspire, and what do they think they will earn in these positions?

 How close are students’ predicted earnings to actual average earnings in their expected careers?

 What would beginning stu dents do if they were not in school, and if they thought they would be working, what did they think they

would be earning?

 What is students’ discount rate, or, phrased another way, how large a premium do beginning postsecondary

students place on more immediate versus more remote rewards? Persistence

 What percentage of students continues their education beyond remedial coursework?

 What proportion of beginning students are enrolled in their first institution and what proportion are enrolled at any institution 3 years after initially enrolling?

 How frequently

are students no longer enrolled any where after 3 years, and how long had such students been enrolled before they left?

 What is the rate at which students transfer between institutions, when do they transfer, and what are the most common transfer patterns in terms of the ty pes of institutions left and entered?

 To what extent do students change their major from STEM to non - STEM fields, and vice versa?

 How do the above persistence questions differ b y demograph ic characteristics, high school preparation, enrollment, employ ment during enrollment, financial aid and borrowing, and education and career expectations? Inparticular, how are high school preparation and institution ty

pe related to attainment? Attainment

 What percentage of beginning students ear n a certificate or associate’s degree within 3 ye ars?

 How long does it take beginning students to earn these credentials?

 To what extent are demographic characteristics, high school preparation, enrollment, employ m ent during enrollment, financial aid and borrowing characteristics, and education8 and career expectations linked to attainment and time to attainment? Inparticular, how are institution ty

pe, transfer patterns, and debt related to attainment? Employment Ou tcomes a

fter Leaving Postsecondary Education

 What percentage of beginning students who have left postsecondary education experience unemploy ment spells, are currently unemployed, are employed less than full time, or are not looking for work?

 How much do be ginning students who have left postsecondary education earn, and what benefits do they

receive?

 How man y certificate attainers continue their education and attain a degree? Are their certificates and degrees in related fields of study? What are their employ ment outcomes?

 What percentage of certificate attainers are employed in their field of study? How do their employ ment outcome s compare to those who are not employed in their field of study?

 In what occupations and industries are these students employed, and do their occupations and industries align with their field of study?

 Among beginning postsecondary students who did not ent er postsecondary education directly from high school and who left postsecondary education within 3 years, to what extent does their employment before and after postsecondary education differ?

 How do the answers to this set of questions differ by demographi c characteristics, high school preparation, enrollment, employ ment during enrollment, financial aid and borrowing, and education and career expectations as well as persistence and attainment ? Answers to these and other questions are vital if policy makers at the local, state, and national levels are to respond adequately to the changing environment of postsecondary education. **c. Previous A** **gency Use of the Data**  NCES has used data from the previous cycles of BPS in a variety of publications, including First Look reports and Web Tables, which can be found in Appendix D , a bibliograph y of publications using BPS data. NCES also makes the BPS data collected available for use b y researchers via both restricted use data files and public - use data tools , PowerStats and QuickStats. Appendix D also displays peer review journal publications prepared b y researchers using these data. **3. Use of Information Technology**  To improve the efficiency of student data collec tion, BPS :12/14 will use web - based student interviewing. The modes of data collection will be web - based , self - administered survey s and computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). In the NPSAS:12 field test, 78.5 percent of interviews were completed on line. The financial aid record collection , if funded as part of the BPS:12/14 full - scale study, will use the same web - based s ys tem designed for the ELS:2002 FAFS. Wherever possible, improved information technology

will be used to ensure the most accurate, high quality , and least burdensome institution data collection. Similar to what is currentl y being used on NPSAS:12, multiple options will be offered to an institution for providing student data, including: (1) uploading electronic (.csv) files to the project’s secure web site; (2) downloading an Excel workbook from the project’s web site, then uploading the9

completed file to the site; and (3) use of a web - based data entry interface. This web - based interface was recentl y redesigned to allow users to enter data in the manner most convenient for them. In addition, an online video tutorial will be available to show users exactly how to navigate through the application and help screens will prov ide users with more in - depth explanations of the required items. The web - based application will allow error checking to be performed immediately by institution staff. An important feature of the online application is that different institution staff can co mplete portions of the required data entry and can complete the data entry in multiple sessions. These features reduce user burden while ensuring that the most accurate data are collected. **4. Efforts to Identify Duplication**  Efforts to identify

duplication have included NCES consult ations with other federal offices, such as ED’s Office of Postsecondary Education, the Office of Planning, Evaluation and Policy Development, the Congressional Budget Office, the National Science Foundation, and the Office of Manage ment and Budget. NCES also routinely consults with non - federal associations such as the American Council on Education, the Career College Association, the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, and the Institute for Higher Educatio n Policy to confirm that the data to be collected for the BPS longitudinal study are not available from any other sources . Academic researchers are also consulted, with several attending Technical Review Panel meetings along with representatives from federal agencies, associations, and academics. Beyond identification of duplication, these consultations provide methodological insights from the results of other longitudinal postsecondary student studies conducted by NCES and other federal agencies and nonfe deral sources, and the consultations assure that the data collected through B PS will meet the needs of the federal government and other relevant organizations. There are no other studies in the U.S that duplicate the data produced b y BPS. BPS is one of s everal studies sponsored b y the U.S. Department of Education to respond to the need for a national, comprehensive database concerning significant issues in access, choice, enrollment, persistence, progress, and attainment in undergraduate postsecondary edu cation, in graduate and professional school access, and in post - enrollment experiences. The base for this information system is the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study

(NPSAS), a recurring survey of a nationall y representative, cross - sectional sample of postsecondary students. The NPSAS survey s have been implemented every 3 to 4 years since 1986

– 87 and serve as the base study for longitudinal cohort follow - ups, including BPS:12/14, which is the focus of this submission. There are three previous cohorts of the Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS) L ongitudinal Study : BP S:90, BPS:96, and BPS:04. The BPS:12 /14 cohort is being identified from NPSAS:12 just as the previous BPS cohorts, and the Baccal aureate and Beyond (B&B) study cohorts, have originated from prior NPSAS studies. The chronology of the previous administrations of the NPSAS study and its associated BPS and B&B longitudinal components are presented in table 1. Furthermore, there have been a number of related studies to BPS. For example, NCES has conducted high school cohort studies, such as High School and Beyond (HS&B), the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NL S - 72), the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NEL S:88), the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (EL S:2002), and the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSL S:09), which follow or plan to follow students into college. While these10

studies accuratel y reflect educ ation and employ ment experiences and outcomes of the high school cohorts from which they

drew a sample, they

are not nationally

representative of all beginning postsecondary students because not all beginners enter directly from high school. In fact, according to BPS:04/09, one third of all beginning postsecondary students were over age 19 when they entered for the first time. Another related study

conducted by

NCES is the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Graduation Rate Survey (GRS) . Unlike the High School Cohort Studies, the GRS provides data on enrollment and attainment for both recent and nonrecent high school graduates. However, its definition of beginning postsecondary students is more restrictive than that of BPS as it is limit ed to full - time, degree seeking, first - time postsecondary students who entered in the fall. In addition, GRS collects enrollment and attainment data from institutions rather than students, meaning it can onl y provide information on students’ attainment at the first institution attended and not students’ attainment at any institutions to which they transfer. **Ta ble 1.**  **Chronology of NPSA S and its longitudinal components** 

Base year First follow - up Second follow - up Third follow- up NPSAS:90 **BPS:90/92 BPS:90/94** 

— NPSAS:93 B&B:93/94 B&B:93/97 B&B:93/03 NPSAS:96 **BPS:96/98 BPS:96/01**  Administrative data update NPSAS:2000 B&B:2000/01

— — NPSAS:04 **BPS:04/06 BPS:04/09**  Administrative data update NPSAS:08 B&B:08/09 B&B:08/12

— NPSAS:12 **BPS:12/14 BPS:12/17**  **BPS:12/19** 1

— Not applicable 1 Tentative. NOTE: BPS = Beginning Postsecondary Students; B&B = Baccalaureate and Beyond. **5. Method Used to Minimize Burden on Small Businesses**  T he student survey

for the BPS:12/14 field test does not involve small businesses or entities. If the full - scale of BPS:12/14 involves a financial aid record collection, s ome small for - profit schools and other small public and private schools will likely be contacted. B urden will be minimized on these schools by working closel y with a sch ool - appointed coordinator (e.g., the financial aid administrator) before the data collection effort to identify the format in which records are kept and transmitted. To accommodate any constraints imposed by

record - keeping s ys tems, schools will be offered alternative methods of providing the requested financial aid student records as described above in the Information Technology section. **6. Frequency** 

**of Data Collection** BPS studies have been conducted periodically since 1990, as described in section 4 of this d ocument . The BPS:12/14 field test student data collection will be conducted in 2013, 2 years after the NPSAS:12 field test from which the BPS field test student sample was selected. A f uture follow - up with the BPS:12/14 field test student sample is antic ipated in 2016, as part of BP S:12/17 , and may include an11

interview, administrative record matching, and student records and one - time transcript collection s, if funded . The NPSAS and its longitudinal spin - off studies, B PS and B&B , are conducted to reflect the large - scale and rapid changes in federal policy concerning postsecondary student aid

—eligibility restrictions change, size s of grant and loan amounts fluctuate, and the balance between various aid options can change dramaticall y. A recurri ng study is essential to help predict future costs for financial aid because loan programs create continued obligations for the federal government as long as the loans are being repaid . Second, r epeated surveys can capture the changing nature of the postsecondary environment. With the longitudinal design of the NPSAS survey and BPS follow - ups, representative national samples of beginning postsecondary students with similar base - ye ar characteristics may be compared over time to determine the effect s of changes in federal policy and programs. Third, repeated survey s can help researchers understand the effect of economic conditions on the employ ment outcomes for subbaccalaureate educational certificate holders. The new oversample of certificate seeker s that will be available for the full - scale study , combined with the longitudinal nature of BPS , allows for anal ys is of how the value of these credentials shifts in response to market forces. **7. Special Circumstances of Data Collection**  No special circumstances of data collection are anticipated. **8. Consultants**  **O utside the A** **gency** Recognizing the significance of the B PS:12/14 data collection, several strategies have been incorporated into the proj ect work plan that allow for the critical review and acquisition of comments relating to project activities, interim and final products, and projected and actual outcomes. These strategies include consultations with persons and organizations both internal and external to NCES, ED, and the federal government. Previous B PS implementations have benefited from a standing federal review panel comprising staff from man y federal offices , in cluding ED ’s Office of Postsecondary Education, OMB, and the Congressional Budget Office. Some members of this panel also belong to the TRP for BPS . The membership of the TRP (see Appendix E ) represents a broad spectrum of the postsecondary community . The nonfederal members serve as expert reviewers on the technical aspects of the study design, data collection procedures, and instrument design, especially item content and format. The TRP reviewed the proposed field test study

design during its meeting in June 2012 . **9. Provision of Payments or Gifts to Respondents**  The use of incentives is an integral part of the overall data collection plan for the BPS:12/14 field test, and is proposed for three purposes : 1. To encourage sample members to update their contact information prior to the start of data collection. All cases will be offered an incentive of $10 to update their contact information via the study website prior to the start of data collection (approximately 3 - 4 weeks before the 201 3 data collection begins). The Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 Third Follow - Up field test conducted an experiment of the effectiveness of incentives paid during the panel maintenance12

phase. Overall, the $10 treatment group had a higher participation rate (25 percent) than the control group (20 percent, t = 1.90, p < .05) . F urther evaluation of the data indicated that the contact information provided largel y new information not already in the study database ; f

or 82 percent of the responding cases, at least one new address, phone number, or email address was provided for the student, parent, or both. Being able to make direct contact with the sample student during data collection saves time and costs, and is likely to increase interview participation. 2. To encourage early response. Once data collection begins, all cases will be offered an initial incentive of $ 3 0 to complete the BPS interview during the earl y response phase . The $30 amount has been used for NPSAS and BPS data collections since 2004. As recently as the NPSAS:12, h igh propensity

cases offered $30 participated at a signi ficantl y higher rate than cases offered a $15 incentive (χ2 = 18.2244, p < .0001). 3. To minimize nonresponse bias using a responsive design approach that will be tested experimentally (see Part B, section 3.c) . After the earl y response phase and the first 2 weeks of outbound data collection have been completed, the responsive design approach will identify , at four time points, a subset of cases most likel y to contribute to nonresponse bias . Half of the “high distance” cases will receive an additional $ 25 incentive , and comparisons following completion of data collection will determine if the higher incentive was effective in bringing in interviews from cases that would have contributed most to nonresponse bias had they not participated . Such an approa ch will allow use of data collection resources strategicall y, incentivizing cases as they become high distance cases, rather than using the higher incentive amount for all cases from the start. In general, the use of incentives during the BPS:12/14 field test will provide significant advantages to the government in terms of timely data collection and decreased data collection costs since i t is likely that the large majority of interviews for which the incentives are paid will be conducted on the Web before more costly , labor intensive CATI outbound calling efforts commence. **10. As**  **surance of Confidentiality** NCES assures participating individuals and institutions that all identifiable information collected in the BPS studies and related programs may be used only

for statistical purposes and may not be disclosed, or used, in identifiable form for any other purpose except as required b y l aw [Education Sciences Reform Act of 2002 (ESRA 2002), 20 U.S.C. § 9573]. B PS :12 /14 d ata security and confidentiality protection procedures are in place to ensure that RTI and its subcontractors compl y with all privacy requirements, including the following :  Statement of Work of this contract;  Privacy

Act of 1974 U.S.C. § 552(a) (2009);  U.S. Department of Education Incident Handling Procedures (February 2009);  U.S. Department of Education General Handbook for Information Technology Security General Support Sy stems and Major Applications Inventory Procedures (March 2005);  U.S. Department of Education, ACS Directive OM:5 - 101, Contractor Employee Personnel Security Screenings ;13

 Family

Educational and Privacy Act of 1974, 20 U.S.C. § 1232g (2009);  E SRA, 20 U.S.C. § 9573 (2009) ; and  All new legislation, which impacts the data collection through this contract. To ensure that confidentiality is appropriatel y maintained at all times, RTI requires that vendors who assist in locating and tracing sample members follow procedures to appropriatel y safeguard personall y identifying information. RTI ’ s vendor contracts outline requir ements for information security policies and assessments, security awareness training, ph ys ical and environmental security, monitoring, and access control. They

also specify

the means by

which information may be transmitted between RTI and the contractor. Appendix B documents the data security language contained in vendor contracts. RTIwill adhere to NCES Statistical Standards (http://nces.ed.gov/statprog/2002/std4_2.asp ) . RTI will also comply

with ED’ s IT security

policy requirements , as set forth in the Handbook for Information Assurance Security Policy and related procedures and guidance as well as IT security requirements in the Federal Information Security Management Act, OMB Circulars, and the National Institute of Standards and T echnology

standards and guidance. B PS:12/14 data security procedures require that notarized nondisclosure affidavits be obtained from all personnel who will have access to individual identifiers (copies of the agreement and affidavit are provided in Appendix F). Also implemented are personnel training regarding the meaning of confidentiality ; controlled and protected access to computer files; built - in safeguards concerning status monitoring and receipt control sy stems; and a secure, staffed, in - house comput ing facility. The procedures for securing sensitive project data will include the following: phy sical/environment protections, building access controls, s ys tem access controls, s ys tem login restrictions, user identification and authorization procedures, en cry

ption, and project file storage/archiving/destruction. There are several security measures in place to protect data during file matching procedures. NCES has a secure data transfer s ys tem, which uses Secure Sockets Layer technology , allowing the transf er of encry

pted data over the Internet. The NCES secure server will be used for all administrative data sources, with the exception of the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC), which has its own secure File Transfer Protocol site. All data transfers will b e encry pted using Federal Information Processing Standards 140 - 2 validated encry ption tools. Furthermore, ED has established a policy regarding the personnel security screening requirements for all contractor emplo yees and their subcontractors to secure th e confidentiality of B PS respondents . The contractor must comply with these personnel security screening requirements throughout the life of the contract. The ED directive that contractors must comply with is OM: 5 - 101, which was last updated on January

29 , 20 08. There are several requirements that the contractor must meet for each employee working on the contract for 30 day s or more. Among these requirements are that each person working on the contract must be assigned a position risk level. The risk level s are high, moderate, and low , based on the level of harm that a person in the position can cause to ED’ s interests. Each person working on the contract must complete the requirements for a “ Contractor Security Screening. ” Depending on the risk level assigned to each person ’ s position, a follow - up background investigation by ED will occur. Sample member contact materials will describe the voluntary nature of the B PS :12 /14 interview and convey

the extent to which study member identifiers and responses will be kept confidential. Similarly , the scripts to be read b y t elephone staff will be very specific in the assurances made to sample14

members and contacts. Contacting materials are presented in Appendix G . The following confidentiality language is provided in the study brochure that is supplied to all sample members: The B eginning Postsecondary Students Lo ngitudinal Study (B PS:12/14 ) is conducted under the authority of the Education Sciences Reform Act (ESRA) of 2002 (20 U.S.C. § 95 43 ) wh ich authorize NCES to collect and disseminate information about education in the United States. Collection is most often done through surveys. NCES is required to follow strict procedures to protect the confidentiality of persons in the collection, reporting, and publication of data. All individually identifiable information supplied by individuals or institutions to NCES may be used only for statistical purposes and may not be disclosed or used in identifiable form for any other purpose, except as required by law ( 20 U.S.C. § 9 573). **11. Sensitive Questions**  The BPS:12/14 interview contains items about earnings, assets and debts, and marital and famil y status. Federal regulations governing the administration of these questions, which might be viewed as sensitive due to personal or pri vate information, require (a) clear documentation of the need for such information as it relates to the primary purpose of the study , (b) provisions to respondents that clearly inform them of the voluntary nature of participation in the study , and (c) assurances that responses may be used only for statistical purposes, except as required by law ( 20 U.S.C. § 9573 ). Several procedures have been implemented to provide these assurances to respondents. They are outlined in the confidentiality agreements shown i n Appendix F . The collection of data related to income, earnings, assets, indebtedness, and long - range employ ment outcomes is central to understanding key policy issues driving this study . Financial assets and obligation s can play

an important role in stud ent persistence in, and completion of, postsecondary education programs. In addition, information about income, earnings, and assets provides vital labor force variables and important indicators of the rate of return of educational experiences to the respo ndent. The collection of information about marital and family status also facilitates the exploration of key policy issues. Social and economic support provided by spouses can play

an important role in students enrolling and persisting in postsecondary edu cation and the successful transition to employ ment . Financial and famil y- related obligations also influence decisions about employ ment and additional education, so it is important to collect information about marital status and dependents. **12. Estimates of Re**  **sponse Burden** B PS:12/14 field test will involve the collection of respondent interview data by self - administered web and telephone interview. B urden estimates

—including number of sample members, expected response rates, and estimated time per respondent

—are shown in table 2 . Burden estimates for the FAFS will be provided with the submission for the full - scale data collection, once the final sample size and results of the EL S:2002 FAFS are known. There will be up to four methods of data collection available for providing student records data, two involve keying directly into a Web application and two involve preparing data and then uploading it to the website. At the time of this submission , average time per instituti on is estimated to be about 3.3 hours.15

**Ta ble**  **2 .**  **Estimated B PS**  **:12 /14**  **field test cost and**  **respons e burden**  **Sample Size Expected** 

**Eligible Expected**  **Response Rate Number** 

**Respondents Av**  **e Burden** 

**(mins) Total Burden** 

**(hours) Rate per** 

**hour ($) Total cost** 

**($) BPS:12/14 Field test**  Panel Maintenance (address updates) 3,496 N/A 33% 1,154 5 96 $10 $960 Student Interview: Confirmed FTB’s 2,003 N/A 82% 1,642 35 958 $10 $9,580 Potential FTB’s - Full interview 747 80% 52% 311 35 181 $10 $1,810 Modified interview 746 80% 68% 406 25 169 $10 $1,690 Student Reinterview* 340 310 70% 217 10 36 $10 $36 0 **BPS:12/14 Full -**  **scale** Panel Maintenance (address updates) 31,045** N/A 33% 10,245 5 854 $10 $8,540 Student Interview 31,045** N/A 80% 24,836 30 12,418 $10 $124,180 * - The student reinterview is given to a subset of interview respondents and includes a reduced number of interview questions. See A ppendix H for a list of included questions. ** - The BPS:12/14 full - scale sample will be derived from the NPSAS:12 full - scale study, which is ongoing. The sample sizes used to estimate cost and burden is based on the NPSAS:12 sampling plan. See A ppendix C for more details. NOTE: B PS :12 /14 = 20 12 /1 4 B eginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, FTB = First Time Beginner Potential FTB’s = NPSAS:12 non - respondents that appear to be FTB’s in NPSAS:12 student records data. **13. Estimates of Cost**  **to Respondents** Respondents will incur no costs for equipment, printing, postage or any other costs associated with participation in this study . **14. Costs to**  **the Federal Government**  A summary

of the estimated costs to the federal government for the B PS :12 /14 field test is shown in Table 3 . Included in the contra ct estimates are all staff time, reproduction, postage, and telephone costs associated with the management, data collection, anal ys is, and reporting for which clearance is requested. A more detailed breakdown of contract costs is provided in table 4 . **Ta bl**  **e 3**  **. Costs**  **to the National Center for Education Statistics for the B PS**  **: 12/14 field test**  Costs to NCES Am ount ($) BPS:12/14 Field Test Study Salaries and expenses $ 111,290 Contract costs 2,845,927 To tal 2,957,217 BPS:12/14 Full - Scale Study Salaries and expenses 333,870 Contract costs 7,508,204 To tal 7,842,074 BPS:12/14 Total Costs Salaries and expenses 445,160 Contract costs 10,354,130 To tal 10,799,290 NOTE: B PS :12 /14 = 20 12 /1 4 B eginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study.16

**Ta ble**  **4 .**  **Contract costs for B PS**  **: 12**  **/14** Stud y area and task management Budgeted amount ($) 11 0 Initial meeting with NCES 38,245 120 Schedules 40,235 130 Monthly reports 367,732 140 Integrated monitoring system 471,607 150 Technical review panels 865,358 Field test (FT) 210 FT Sampling 3 8,140 220 FT RIM G /OMB forms clearance 9 0,983 231 Instrumentation 696,220 232 Tracing 68,368 234 Training for We b/ CATI data collection 1 26,693 236 We b/ CATI data collection 393,288 237 Data processing 3 58,230 240 Methodology report 1 8 2,416 Full - scale (FS) data collection 31 0 FS Sampling 47,419 320 FS RIM G /OMB forms clearance 56,630 331 Instrumentation 6 73,805 332 Tracing 4 02,399 334 Training for web /CATI data collection 30 9, 055 336 We b/ CATI data collection – general 2 , 211,376

We b/CATI data collection – incentives 576,898 337 Data processing 7 20,259 338 We ighting, imputation, and nonresponse bias analysis 2 1 1,472 339 Data disclosure planning and prevention 5 7,574 340 Methodology report 3 11,049 Descriptive reporting 410 First Look report 7 3,163 420 Data analysis system 4 40,612 430 Additional special tabulations 1 35,937 440 Descriptive reports 1 08,415 450 Respond to information requests 2 67,645 460 Final technical memo 1 2,907 Total $ 10,354,130 NOTE: Costs presented here do not include base or award fee. B PS : 12 /14 = 20 12 /1 4 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study; CATI = computer- assisted telephone interview ing; OMB = Office of Management and Budget; RIMG = Regulatory Information Management Group. **15. Reasons for Changes in**  **Response Burden and Costs** No changes in response burden or cost are anticipated. The respondent burden shows an increase because the last OMB approval was discontinued in September 2010 . **16. Publication Plans and Time Schedule**  The contract for B PS : 12/ 14 requires the following reports, publications, or other public information releases:  A First Look report and Web Tables;17

 Complete data files and documentation for research data u sers in the form of both a restricted use file and public - use data tools (i. e., QuickStats, PowerStats);  Detailed data file documentation desc ribing all aspects of the full - scale study design and data collection procedures ; and  Special tabulations of issues of interest to the higher education community , as determined b y NCES Additional reports, including Statistics in Brief and Statistical Analy sis Reports, may also be published from the full - scale data . For examples of publications using prior BPS studies, see Appendix D . The operational schedule for the B PS: 12 /14 full - scale study is shown in t able 5 . **Ta ble**  **5** . **Operational schedule for BP S**  **: 12/**  **14** Activity Start date End date F ield Test Update /deliver sample specifications 7 / 1 0 /2012 5 / 1 6 /201 3 Conduct locating and tracing activities Conduct help desk and CA TI training 8/16 / 20 12 12 / 1 9/2012 6/2 8 / 2013

4 / 10 /201 3 D ata collection Self- adm inistered web interviews 3 /1 8 /201 3 6 /28 /2013 Conduct telephone interviews of students 4/11 /201 3 6 /28 /2013 Process data, construct data files 1/ 28 /201 3 8 / 30 /2013 Prepare data file documentation 4/4 /201 3 11 / 3 /201 4 Full - s cale Update /deliver sample specifications 7 / 1 5 /201 3 2 / 11 /201 4 Conduct locating and tracing activities Conduct help desk , CA TI, and CA P I training 7 /23/ 2 013 11 /25 /201 3 9 / 15 /2014

6 / 11 /201 4 Conduct Institution Contactor training 8/12/2014 10/10/2014 D ata collection Self- adm inistered web interviews 2 / 8 /201 4 9 /1 5 /201 4 Conduct telephone interviews of students 3/14/2014 9/15/2014 Conduct field interviews of students 6/12/2014 9/15/2014 Process data, construct data files 2 /1 6 /201 3 9 /4 /201 5 Prepare and submit reports 9 /1 6 /201 4 5 / 1 6 /201 6 Collect student financial aid data from institutions 10/1/2014 4/15/2015 NOTE: B PS:12/14 = 20 12 /1 4 B eginning Postsecondary Student s Longitudinal Study ; CATI = Computer assisted telephone interview; CAPI = Computer assisted personal interview **17. Ap**  **proval to Not Display Expiration Date for OMB A**  **pproval** No special exception is requested. **18. Exceptions to**  **Certification for Paperwork Reduction A ct Submissions**  There are no exceptions to the certification statement identified in the Certification for Paperwork Reduction Act Submissions of OMB Form 8 .