PUBLISH 

UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS 

FOR THE TENTH CIRCUIT 

_________________________________ 

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 

 Plaintiff - Appellee, 

v. 

PAMELA KATHRYN CONLEY, 

 Defendant - Appellant.

No. 22-5112 

_________________________________ 

Appeal from the United States District Court 

for the Northern District of Oklahoma 

(D.C. No. 4:21-CR-00064-JFH-1)

_________________________________ 

Lynn C. Hartfield, Law Office of Lynn C. Hartfield, LLC, Denver, Colorado, for 

Defendant – Appellant. 

Steven J. Briden, Assistant United States Attorney, (Clinton J. Johnson, United States 

Attorney with him on the brief), Tulsa, Oklahoma, for Plaintiff – Appellee. 

_________________________________ 

Before MATHESON, PHILLIPS, and MORITZ, Circuit Judges. 

_________________________________ 

MATHESON, Circuit Judge. 

_________________________________ 

Pamela Kathryn Conley pled guilty to 24 counts of bank fraud and 4 counts of 

aggravated identity theft. The district court sentenced her to 30 months in prison for 

bank fraud and a consecutive 24 months for aggravated identity theft.

FILED

United States Court of Appeals

Tenth Circuit

December 22, 2023

Christopher M. Wolpert

Clerk of Court

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On appeal, Ms. Conley argues the district court erred in relying on the loss 

calculation in the presentence report (“PSR”) to determine her U.S. Sentencing 

Guidelines (“U.S.S.G.” or the “Guidelines”) range for bank fraud. She also argues 

that in light of Dubin v. United States, 599 U.S. 110 (2023), the court plainly erred in 

accepting her guilty plea to aggravated identity theft.

Exercising jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. § 1291, we vacate Ms. Conley’s 

sentence for bank fraud and remand for resentencing on those counts, and we affirm 

her convictions for aggravated identity theft.

I. BACKGROUND

A. Factual History

Between September 2016 and August 2021, Ms. Conley applied for loans at seven 

financial institutions using false employment and salary information. She sought 

$1,028,643.20 in loans and received $998,643.20. She used various cars, boats, and 

trailers as collateral.

In four instances, Ms. Conley used the names and forged signatures of financialinstitution employees to create false lien releases for already encumbered vehicles. She 

used these lien releases to repledge the same vehicles as collateral for new loans.

B. Procedural History

A grand jury indicted Ms. Conley on 24 counts of bank fraud under 18 U.S.C. 

§ 1344 and 4 counts of aggravated identity theft under 18 U.S.C. § 1028A(a)(1). She 

pled guilty, without a plea agreement, to all 28 counts.

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The Probation Office’s PSR found the “loss” caused by Ms. Conley’s offense was 

$1,020,591.62,

1 which triggered a 14-level increase in Ms. Conley’s Guidelines offense 

level. Ms. Conley argued that the properly calculated loss amount should have been

below $550,000, which would have triggered only a 12-level increase.

At the sentencing hearing, the district court, over Ms. Conley’s objection, relied on 

the PSR’s loss amount to calculate her Guidelines range for bank fraud as 30 to 

37 months. The court sentenced her to 30 months in prison. It also sentenced her to a 

mandatory consecutive 24 months for aggravated identity theft, U.S.S.G. § 2B1.6, and 

three years of supervised release. The court ordered her to pay $451,064.64 in restitution.

Ms. Conley timely appealed.

II. DISCUSSION

Ms. Conley raises two issues. First, she challenges the district court’s calculation 

of her Guidelines range for bank fraud. Second, she argues Dubin v. United States 

renders the court’s acceptance of her guilty plea to aggravated identity theft plainly 

erroneous. We vacate Ms. Conley’s sentence for bank fraud and remand for 

resentencing. We affirm her aggravated identity theft convictions.

1 The Probation Office reached this number by taking the amount of loans 

Ms. Conley sought ($1,028,643.00) and subtracting the value of one returned vehicle 

($8,051.38). We detail the formula for loss below.

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A. Loss Calculation

The district court clearly erred in relying on disputed facts in the PSR to calculate 

Ms. Conley’s Guidelines range for bank fraud, making her sentence procedurally 

unreasonable.

Legal Background

a. Standard of review

We review sentencing decisions for abuse of discretion. Peugh v. United States, 

569 U.S. 530, 537 (2013). “When reviewing a district court’s application of the 

Sentencing Guidelines, we review legal questions de novo and we review any factual 

findings for clear error.” United States v. Maldonado-Passage, 4 F.4th 1097, 1103 

(10th Cir. 2021) (alterations and quotations omitted).

“A district court’s loss calculation at sentencing is a factual question we review for 

clear error.” United States v. Griffith, 584 F.3d 1004, 1011 (10th Cir. 2009) (quotations 

omitted).

2

 “[W]e may disturb the district court’s loss determination—and consequent 

2 Although Ms. Conley describes her challenge to the loss calculation as a legal 

one, Aplt. Reply Br. at 3, the substance of her brief contests the factual basis for the loss 

number, Aplt. Br. at 10-18. For example, she argues the Government failed to present 

evidence supporting the loss amount and asks us to “remand for further findings” on the 

payments made and the value of recovered collateral. Id. at 17-18. The Government also 

treats her argument as factual, countering that her objection to the loss amount was 

“insufficient to trigger the district court’s factfinding responsibilities.” Aplee. Br. at 14. 

We may review a party’s argument according to its substance rather than the party’s 

characterization. See, e.g., Tucker v. Makowski, 883 F.2d 877, 881 (10th Cir. 1989); 

Alcivar v. Wynne, 268 F. App’x 749, 754 (10th Cir. 2008) (unpublished).

We cite the unpublished cases in this opinion for their persuasive value. See Fed. 

R. App. P. 32.1(a); 10th Cir. R. 32.1(A).

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Guidelines enhancement—only if the court’s finding is without factual support in the 

record or if, after reviewing all the evidence, we are left with a definite and firm 

conviction that a mistake has been made.” United States v. Mullins, 613 F.3d 1273, 1292 

(10th Cir. 2010) (quotations omitted).

b. Procedural reasonableness and the Guidelines

“[W]e evaluate sentences imposed by the district court for reasonableness.” 

United States v. Conlan, 500 F.3d 1167, 1169 (10th Cir. 2007); see United States v. 

Booker, 543 U.S. 220, 261-62 (2005). Ms. Conley challenges only the procedural 

reasonableness of her sentence. “Procedural reasonableness involves using the proper 

method to calculate the sentence.” Conlan, 500 F.3d at 1169; see Gall v. United States, 

552 U.S. 38, 51 (2007). “In setting a procedurally reasonable sentence, a district court 

must calculate the proper advisory Guidelines range . . . .” United States v. Chee, 

514 F.3d 1106, 1116 (10th Cir. 2008) (quotations omitted); see Rosales-Mireles v. United 

States, 138 S. Ct. 1897, 1904 (2018).

“Any error in the Guidelines calculation renders a sentence procedurally 

unreasonable and, if the error is not harmless, requires remand.” United States v. Scott, 

529 F.3d 1290, 1300 (10th Cir. 2008); see also Peugh, 569 U.S. at 537. When the 

government is the “beneficiary of the error,” it must prove harmlessness by a 

preponderance of the evidence. United States v. Sanchez-Leon, 764 F.3d 1248, 1262-63

(10th Cir. 2014) (quotations omitted).

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c. U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1

U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1 provides a two-step formula to calculate the base offense level 

for § 1344 bank fraud convictions: (1) § 2B1.1(a) sets the base offense level, then 

(2) § 2B1.1(b) increases it based on specific offense characteristics.

Section 2B1.1(b)(1) increases the base offense level according to the “loss” caused 

by the offense.3

 To calculate loss, the sentencing court must take “the greater of actual 

loss or intended loss,” U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1 cmt. n.3(A), then subtract certain “[c]redits” or 

deductions, id. § 2B1.1 cmt. n.3(E).

“Actual loss” is the monetary harm that resulted from the offense. Id. § 2B1.1 

cmt. n.3(A)(i).

4

 “Intended loss” is the monetary “harm that the defendant purposely 

sought to inflict,” regardless of the harm actually inflicted. Id. § 2B1.1 cmt. n.3(A)(ii). 

The greater of these amounts is the starting point for the loss calculation. Id. § 2B1.1 

cmt. n.3(A).

The sentencing court then deducts (1) the amount of “money returned . . . by the 

defendant . . . to the victim before the offense was detected,” id. § 2B1.1 cmt. n.3(E)(i),

5

3 Section 2B1.1(b) calls for further adjustments based on other offense 

characteristics, but only § 2B1.1(b)(1) is relevant to this appeal.

4 Actual loss is limited to “reasonably foreseeable” harm. U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1 cmt. 

n.3(A)(i), (iv).

5 “The time of detection of the offense is the earlier of (I) the time the offense was 

discovered by a victim or government agency; or (II) the time the defendant knew or 

reasonably should have known that the offense was detected or about to be detected . . . .” 

U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1 cmt. n.3(E)(i).

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and (2) the value of any collateral that the victim has recovered by the time of sentencing, 

id. § 2B1.1 cmt. n.3(E)(ii).6

In summary, loss is the greater of actual or intended loss, less (1) the money 

returned before detection of the offense and (2) the value of any collateral recovered 

before sentencing.7 The resulting amount determines the increase to the defendant’s base 

offense level. Relevant here, the sentencing court increases the base offense level by 12 

if the loss is more than $250,000 and less than $550,000, and by 14 if the loss is more 

than $550,000 and less than $1,500,000. Id. § 2B1.1(b)(1).

d. PSR at sentencing

Sentencing courts often rely on facts in the PSR. Federal Rule of Criminal 

Procedure 32(i)(3) provides:

At sentencing, the court:

(A) may accept any undisputed portion of the [PSR] as a 

finding of fact; [and]

(B) must—for any disputed portion of the [PSR] or other 

controverted matter—rule on the dispute or determine 

that a ruling is unnecessary either because the matter 

will not affect sentencing, or because the court will not 

consider the matter in sentencing . . . .

6 The value of the collateral is “the amount the victim has recovered . . . from 

disposition of the collateral” or, if the victim has not disposed of the collateral, “the fair 

market value of the collateral at the time of sentencing.” U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1 cmt.

n.3(E)(ii).

7 Loss = (the greater of actual or intended loss) – (the amount of money returned 

before detection of the offense) – (the value of any collateral recovered before 

sentencing).

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“If a defendant fails to specifically object to a fact in the PSR, the fact is deemed 

admitted by the defendant and the government need not produce additional evidence in 

support of the admitted fact.” United States v. Hooks, 551 F.3d 1205, 1217 (10th 

Cir. 2009). But “[w]hen a defendant objects to a fact in a [PSR]” and notifies the 

sentencing court that the fact is disputed, “the government must prove that fact at a 

sentencing hearing by a preponderance of the evidence.” United States v. Barnett, 

828 F.3d 1189, 1192 (10th Cir. 2016) (quotations omitted); see Fed. R. Crim. P. 32(i)(3). 

“The government can meet its burden by either presenting new evidence at sentencing or 

referring to evidence presented at trial.” United States v. McDonald, 43 F.4th 1090, 1095 

(10th Cir. 2022).

A defendant objects to a fact in the PSR by “mak[ing] specific allegations of 

factual inaccuracy” rather than challenging only “the ultimate conclusions in the [PSR]” 

or “the inferences to be drawn” from the facts. Barnett, 838 F.3d at 1192-93, 1195

(quotations omitted). “[T]he test is whether the district court was adequately alerted to 

the [factual] issue.” United States v. Harrison, 743 F.3d 760, 763 (10th Cir. 2014).

A sufficient objection may be “imprecise.” Id.; see United States v. E.F., 920 F.3d 

682, 687 (10th Cir. 2019) (“All that is required to preserve an issue for appeal is that the 

party ‘informs the court of the party’s objection and the grounds for that objection.’” 

(alterations omitted) (quoting Fed. R. Crim. P. 51(b)). For example, we found it 

sufficient that a defendant said at sentencing, “There were several mistakes in . . . [t]he 

amounts that were on [the PSR],” and the district court confirmed that it understood the 

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defendant “disagree[d] with the probation officer’s calculation.” Harrison, 743 F.3d 

at 763.

Additional Procedural History

a. PSR

Ms. Conley’s PSR calculated her loss as $1,020,591.62, which increased her base 

offense level by 14. An addendum to the PSR explained that this number was calculated

by taking the total amount of fraudulent loans that Ms. Conley sought ($1,028,643.00) 

and subtracting the value of one vehicle that was returned to a victim financial institution 

($8,051.38).

b. Written objections

Ms. Conley received the draft PSR before her sentencing hearing. She filed 

written objections in a letter to the Probation Office, in which she objected that the loss 

amount had not been reduced by the amounts paid on the loans or the value of recovered 

collateral.

c. Sentencing hearing

At the sentencing hearing, the district court stated that it had “reviewed 

[Ms. Conley]’s [written] objections” and believed that it “fully underst[ood]” the 

objection. ROA, Vol. III at 40.8

8 The Probation Office issued a revised PSR the morning of Ms. Conley’s 

sentencing hearing. The loss amount was changed from $1,028,643.00 to $1,020,591.62.

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Ms. Conley told the court that she “maintain[ed] [her] objection with regard to the 

total loss for purposes of calculating the [Guidelines] enhancement on that basis.” Id. 

She further explained that the commentary to U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1 “requires the court to 

reduce loss by any amounts, including the return of collateral or any money that is 

returned.” Id. at 41. And she again stated her belief “that the loss amount should be 

reduced by any return of property or any collection of collateral.” Id. at 42. She argued 

that the loss amount with the appropriate deductions would equal the restitution amount. 

Id. at 46.

The Government responded that Ms. Conley was “conflating intended loss and 

actual loss,” id. at 46, and argued that her false lien releases meant that the “banks could 

not repossess their collateral,” id. at 47. It said that “for sentencing [the court should] go 

by the intended loss.” Id. The Government presented no evidence in support of the 

PSR’s loss calculation, and the district court did not request it. See id.

The district court overruled Ms. Conley’s objection. It “believe[d] the intended 

loss [wa]s calculated correctly and . . . all amounts that were credited ha[d] been deducted 

from the intended loss.” Id. at 47-48. And it “d[id]n’t think there[] [was] any way . . . to 

calculate the intended loss less than $550,000 based upon [the PSR],” which would be 

required for Ms. Conley to receive a 12-level increase to her offense level rather than a 

14-level increase. Id. at 48. Finally, the court said that “for [Ms. Conley] to get credit for 

returned items or returned amounts . . . , she would have had to return that before 

detection, and that[] . . . doesn’t seem to be the case.” Id.

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The district court then decided that “the [PSR] [would] form the factual basis for 

[its] sentence.” Id. at 62. It calculated Ms. Conley’s offense level as 19 with a criminal 

history category of I,

9 which resulted in a Guidelines range of 30 to 37 months. It 

sentenced her to 30 months in prison for bank fraud.

Analysis

a. Sufficiency of objection and the Government’s burden

The Government argues Ms. Conley’s objections to the PSR were “insufficient to 

trigger the district court’s factfinding responsibilities.” Aplee. Br. at 14. We disagree.

To determine whether her objections were sufficient, “the sole question is whether 

the district court was adequately alerted to the issue.” E.F., 920 F.3d at 687 (quotations 

omitted). Ms. Conley contested the loss amount in the PSR, insisting it did not include 

the appropriate deductions. The district court said it understood her to argue that 

“because her loans were collateralized . . . , because many of the loans were paid off with 

proceeds of new loans, and because various institutions recovered and/or set-off 

collateral, she’s entitled to have the loss reduced in the amount of restitution.” ROA, 

Vol. III at 46.

Because restitution includes only actual damages and makes deductions that are 

excluded from the loss calculation, see 18 U.S.C. § 3663A(b), Ms. Conley was incorrect 

that the district court should have used the restitution amount as the loss amount. 

9 The court started with the base offense level of 7 under U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1(a), 

added 14 levels under § 2B1.1(b), and subtracted 2 levels for acceptance of responsibility 

under § 3E1.1(a).

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Nonetheless, she sufficiently alerted the district court that she disputed the PSR’s loss 

calculation. E.F., 920 F.3d at 687. Because her objections were sufficient under 

Rule 32(i)(3) and our case law, see Barnett, 828 F.3d at 1192-93; E.F., 920 F.3d at 687; 

Harrison, 743 F.3d at 763, the Government was required to prove the loss amount at the 

sentencing hearing by a preponderance of the evidence.

b. Clear error and procedural unreasonableness

The district court clearly erred by adopting the PSR’s loss calculation over 

Ms. Conley’s objection without requiring the Government to prove it by a preponderance 

of the evidence. “We repeatedly have held that a district court may not satisfy its 

obligation to make a finding as to controverted factual allegations regarding sentencing 

by simply adopting the PSR as its finding.” United States v. Wilken, 498 F.3d 1160, 1170 

(10th Cir. 2007) (alterations and quotations omitted); see also United States v. West, 

550 F.3d 952, 974 (10th Cir. 2008). Once Ms. Conley alerted the district court that she 

disputed the PSR’s loss calculation, the Government was required to present evidence at 

the sentencing hearing to support it. See McDonald, 43 F.4th at 1095.

The district court’s failure to hold the Government to its burden was procedurally 

unreasonable. “In setting a procedurally reasonable sentence, a district court must 

calculate the proper advisory Guidelines range . . . .” Chee, 514 F.3d at 1116 (quotations 

omitted); see also Rosales-Mireles, 138 S. Ct. at 1904 (“District courts must begin their 

analysis with the Guidelines and remain cognizant of them throughout the sentencing 

process.” (alterations and quotations omitted)). To do so, it cannot rely on a disputed loss 

calculation that the Government failed to prove by a preponderance. See Harrison, 

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743 F.3d at 763-64. The court clearly erred in relying on unproven facts in the PSR, and 

it therefore abused its discretion by “selecting a sentence based on clearly erroneous 

facts.” Gall, 552 U.S. at 51.

c. Harmlessness

The district court’s error in relying on the PSR’s loss amount to calculate

Ms. Conley’s Guidelines range was not harmless. A calculation error may be harmless if 

the district court nonetheless considers the correct Guidelines range. See Kristl, 437 F.3d 

at 1055; United States v. Tom, 494 F.3d 1277, 1282 (10th Cir. 2007). The court did not 

do so here.

At the close of the sentencing hearing, the district court said it would have reached

the same Guidelines range even if it made the additional deductions urged by 

Ms. Conley. It said that it “d[id]n’t think there[] [was] any way . . . to calculate the 

intended loss less than $550,000 based upon [the PSR],” which would have been required 

to increase Ms. Conley’s base offense level by 12 rather than 14. ROA, Vol. III at 48. 

But this statement is “without factual support in the record.” Mullins, 613 F.3d at 1292 

(quotations omitted); see United States v. Wieck, No. 19-6075, 2021 WL 4949177, 

at *10-11 (10th Cir. Oct. 25, 2021) (unpublished) (remanding for resentencing when the 

district court made the unsupported finding that even with “a liberal deduction . . . , 

you’re still left with a net number in excess of 550,000”).

The Government failed to prove by a preponderance of the evidence that the 

properly calculated loss would still be above $550,000. See Sanchez-Leon, 764 F.3d 

at 1262-63. “[A] procedural error is not harmless if it requires us to speculate on whether 

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the court would have reached the same determination absent the error.” United States v. 

Gieswein, 887 F.3d 1054, 1062 (10th Cir. 2018) (quotations omitted). Without record 

evidence supporting the PSR’s loss calculation, we cannot say that the district court’s 

error was harmless. We vacate Ms. Conley’s sentence for bank fraud and remand for 

resentencing on those counts.

10

B. Aggravated Identity Theft

As described above, Ms. Conley pled guilty to aggravated identity theft. She now 

argues the district court plainly erred in finding a factual basis for her plea after Dubin. 

We affirm.

Plain Error Standard of Review

Ms. Conley did not object to the court’s acceptance of her aggravated identity theft 

plea, so we review for plain error. United States v. Olano, 507 U.S. 725, 730 (1993). 

“Plain error occurs when there is (1) error, (2) that is plain, which (3) affects substantial 

10 The district court also said that 30 months was “the same sentence [it] would 

impose if given the broadest possible discretion and the same sentence [it] would impose 

notwithstanding any judicial findings of fact by adoption of the [PSR] or at th[e] 

[sentencing] hearing.” ROA, Vol. III at 76. We have “rejected the notion that district 

courts can insulate sentencing decisions from review by making such statements.” 

United States v. Burris, 29 F.4th 1232, 1239 (10th Cir. 2022) (quotations omitted).

This case stands in contrast, for example, to Sanchez-Leon, in which we held the 

district court procedurally erred by failing to consider the defendant’s deportability in 

sentencing. 764 F.3d 1248. There, we held the error was harmless based on the court’s 

insistence that, even if it had considered deportability, it would have imposed the same 

sentence to avoid disparities with similarly situated defendants. Id. at 1264-66. The 

district court here did not provide a similar explanation. See United States v. 

Peña-Hermosillo, 522 F.3d 1108, 1117-18 (10th Cir. 2008) (concluding error was not 

harmless where district court failed to explain the reasoning behind alternative sentence 

of the same length).

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rights, and which (4) seriously affects the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of 

judicial proceedings.” United States v. Gonzalez-Huerta, 403 F.3d 727, 732 (10th Cir. 

2005) (en banc) (quotations omitted).

An error is plain when it is “clear or obvious under current, well-settled law” at the 

time of appeal, meaning “either the Supreme Court or this court [has] addressed the 

issue.” United States v. Brooks, 736 F.3d 921, 930 (10th Cir. 2013) (quotations omitted). 

“[I]n certain circumstances, the weight of authority from other circuits may make an error 

plain . . . .” United States v. Hill, 749 F.3d 1250, 1258 (10th Cir. 2014) (quotations 

omitted).

Legal Background

a. Factual basis for a guilty plea

To enter judgment on a guilty plea, the court must determine there is an 

appropriate factual basis for the plea. Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(b)(3). “To determine whether 

a factual basis exists for the defendant’s plea, the district court must compare the conduct

admitted or conceded by the defendant with the elements of the charged offense to ensure 

the admissions are factually sufficient to constitute the charged crime.” United States v. 

Gonzales, 918 F.3d 808, 811-12 (10th Cir. 2019) (quotations omitted).

b. Title 18 U.S.C. § 1028A: Aggravated identity theft

Title 18 U.S.C. § 1028A(a)(1) provides:

Whoever, during and in relation to any felony violation 

enumerated in [18 U.S.C. § 1028A(c), including bank fraud], 

knowingly transfers, possesses, or uses, without lawful 

authority, a means of identification of another person, shall, 

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in addition to the punishment provided for such felony, be 

sentenced to a term of imprisonment of 2 years.

A signature is a “means of identification” for § 1028A. United States v. Porter, 745 F.3d 

1035, 1042-43 (10th Cir. 2014).

c. Dubin v. United States

In between Ms. Conley’s sentencing and this appeal, the Supreme Court decided 

Dubin v. United States, 599 U.S. 110 (2023). In Dubin, the Court resolved a circuit split 

over when a defendant “uses” another’s identification “in relation to” a predicate offense 

under 18 U.S.C. § 1028A(a)(1). Id. at 116. After defendant David Dubin conducted 

psychological testing on a patient, he submitted a bill to Medicaid that used the patient’s 

name but falsely inflated the reimbursement amount. Id. at 114. He was charged under 

§ 1028A with aggravated identity theft during and in relation to healthcare fraud. 

Id at 114-15.

The Court held that “§ 1028A(a)(1) is violated when the defendant’s misuse of 

another person’s means of identification is at the crux of what makes the conduct 

criminal.” Id. at 131. “[W]ith fraud or deceit crimes,” the means of identification is at 

the crux of the conduct’s criminality when it is “used in a manner that is fraudulent or 

deceptive . . . , [which] can often be succinctly summarized as [deception about] ‘who’ is 

involved.” Id. at 131-32. Because “the crux of [Mr. Dubin’s] fraud was a 

misrepresentation about . . . how and when services were provided to a patient, not who 

received the services,” the Court held that the identification was not at the crux of his

conduct and vacated his conviction. Id. at 132.

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Analysis 

Ms. Conley argues the district court plainly erred in accepting her plea under 

Rule 11(b)(3) because her use of the employees’ signatures to create fake lien releases 

was not at the “crux” of her fraud and thus, in light of Dubin, was not factually sufficient 

to constitute aggravated identity theft. Aplt. Br. at 25-27. 

Any error here was not plain. Under the second prong of plain error review, we 

will reverse a district court’s decision only if it is “contrary to well-settled law” at the 

time of the appeal. United States v. Whitney, 229 F.3d 1296, 1309 (10th Cir. 2000). 

Accepting Ms. Conley’s plea was not contrary to well-settled law. Neither (1) the 

Supreme Court, (2) our circuit, nor (3) any other circuit has addressed the issue presented 

in Ms. Conley’s case. 

First, since Dubin, the Supreme Court has not applied its crux test or provided 

further guidance on how to do so. And the facts in Dubin differ significantly from those 

here. 599 U.S. at 114. Mr. Dubin treated the patients that he named in his 

reimbursement requests, changing only the amount of the reimbursement. Id. The Court 

relied on the distinction between “how and when services were provided . . . [and] who 

received the services.” Id. at 132. By contrast, Ms. Conley falsified both the substance 

of the lien releases and who had authored them.

Second, this circuit has applied Dubin’s test only once in an unpublished decision, 

noting without explanation that the government met its burden to show a forged signature 

was “used in a manner that is fraudulent or deceptive” and “play[ed] a key role” in the 

crime. United States v. Herman, Nos. 22-8057, 22-8061, 2023 WL 6861766, at *8 n.6 

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(10th Cir. Oct. 18, 2023) (unpublished) (quoting Dubin, 599 U.S. at 129, 132). Herman 

does not settle the law. Unpublished decisions are not precedential. 10th Cir. R. 32.1; 

see also United States v. Story, 635 F.3d 1241, 1248 (10th Cir. 2011) (finding “no 

controlling circuit . . . precedent” where neither of the relevant cases were “published or 

binding on this court or the district courts”). 

Further, Herman involved a scheme to “control[] a publicly traded company, 

artificially inflat[e] the value of the company’s shares, and then sell[] [the] shares.” 

2023 WL 6861766, at *1. The defendant used a forged signature to create a “fake 

attorney-opinion letter.” Id. at *2. We did not explain why this letter was at the “crux” 

of the defendant’s criminal conduct or what evidence the government presented at trial to 

show the signature “play[ed] a key role” in the scheme. Id. at *8 n. 

Third, as for other circuits, only the Eleventh and Fifth Circuits have applied 

Dubin’s test. The Eleventh Circuit did so in United States v. Gladden, 78 F.4th 1232 

(11th Cir. 2023), which, like Dubin, was a healthcare fraud case that bears little factual 

resemblance to Ms. Conley’s case. See id. at 1238-40, 1248. The Fifth Circuit applied 

Dubin to find that a defendant who forged employment paperwork was properly 

convicted of aggravated identity theft. United States v. Croft, Nos. 21-50380, 22-50659, 

2023 WL 8292809 (5th Cir. Dec. 1, 2023). Neither case supports Ms. Conley’s 

argument. And two opinions from our sister circuits do not constitute “the weight of 

authority from other circuits” needed to establish plain error. Hill, 749 F.3d at 1258. 

Neither “the Supreme Court [n]or this court [has] addressed the issue” presented in 

Ms. Conley’s case, Brooks, 736 F.3d at 930, and no other circuit court has applied 

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Dubin’s test to bank fraud. Without more definitive legal authority, any error in 

accepting Ms. Conley’s guilty plea cannot be plain. We affirm.

III. CONCLUSION

We vacate Ms. Conley’s sentence for bank fraud and remand for resentencing on 

her bank fraud convictions. We affirm her convictions for aggravated identity theft.11

11 We also deny Ms. Conley’s motion to expedite as moot.

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