EE-RM/STD-98-440 /L.JT

£dE-d M/S 7To - g- -of 

Methodology for Utility and

Environmental Analysis:

Central Air Conditioners

and Heat Pumps

Jim McMahon

JEMcMahon@lbl.gov

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

I

U.S. Department of Energy

Workshop on Standards for

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

December 9, 1999

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EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14JJ
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UTILITY ANALYSIS

:-*: __ __ g ___ _ _. __ _ _i__ . _ _ ._ _ r i

PURPOSE

- Estimate effects on utilities from reduced energy sales

due to new energy efficiency standards

METHOD uses NEMS-BRS

- DOE/EIA integrated model of U.S. energy sector, including

supply and demand

- Publicly available model, with forecast through 2020

(Extrapolated to 2030 using FEMP method)

- Standards scenarios use National Energy Savings output

- ANOPR analysis: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 1999

- NOPR: update to EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2000

- Central A/C and Heat Pump Utility & Environmental Analysis--

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INPUTS: UTILITY ANALYSIS i

* Annual electricity savings

- from National Energy Savings spreadsheet

* All other inputs from EIA Annual Energy Outlook

- Central A/C and Heat Pump Utility & Environmental AnalysisEE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14JJ
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OUTPUT: UTILITY ANALYSIS

,*:.._.1_. _ .~-~__ _-~_____~ __ _ _~_ ____ _rrrrrr

* NEMS-BRS balances all supply and demand

given savings from new energy efficiency

standard

* Change in electricity sales and price

- by region

* Change in mix of electricity generation

* Change in new capacity construction

--Central A/C and Heat Pump Utility & Environmental Analysis- --

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14JJ
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ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ri

_______ .__ __ _==.= .

* PURPOSE

- estimate impacts from new energy efficiency standards

on U.S. emissions of CO2, NOx, and SO2

* METHOD

- power plant emissions from NEMS-BRS model

- - - -. Central A/C and Heat Pump Utility & Environmental Analysis - -

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14JJ
EE-RM/STD-98-440

Net National Employment Impacts:

Central Air Conditioners

and Heat Pumps

_+__ = .__„._-.„„_-__ _ „ _ _ _^_ ., .=_ .= Tfs__f_ rrrrrrrl

Jim McMahon

JEMcMahon@lbl.gov

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

U.S. Department of Energy

Workshop on Standards for

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

December 9, 1999

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14JJ
EE-RM/STD-98-440 IH I3

Net National Employment Impacts:

Definition I r-- 

* Possible standards could affect consumer

spending in two ways:

- increase purchase price of regulated products

- decrease consumer energy expenditures

* Direct employment impacts will be analyzed in

detail in the manufacturer impact analysis

* Net national employment impacts are net jobs

created or eliminated in the U.S. economy as a

consequence of new energy efficiency standards

- Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts -

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Background and approach

:---= _ = _ ___ . __I = = ^} M

Residential total energy expenditures in 1995

were: $129 billion (EIASEPER)

- electricity $87 billion natural gas $29 billion

- distillate $ 6 billion LPG $ 4 billion

New energy efficiency standards are expected to

reduce energy expenditures, usually offsetting

projected increases in equipment prices over

time.

An input/output model estimates the effects on

various sectors of the economy from the changes

in consumer spe"-di ng.

. __ - Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts 3 I * ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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MODEL: IMBUILD I

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

developed spreadsheet model for DOE in 1998

Characterized U.S. economy as interconnections

among 35 sectors (national input/output

structural matrices)

INPUT: shifts in expenditures due to standards

(equipment and energy expenditures from

National Energy Savings analysis)

OUTPUT: change in employment by sector as a

consequeiince Lof lnewv standards

Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts .- 4 ..

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Possible employment impacts r..

* Employment by manufacturers of regulated

equipment, and their suppliers, may change

* Reduced spending for energy and water may

cause reductions in employment in the energy

and water supply sectors

* Shifting spending away from energy toward other

sectors may create jobs in other sectors

* Net job creation or elimination will be estimated

. --- Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts -_

-I

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14JJ