EE-RM/STD-98-440 /L.JT £dE-d M/S 7To
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## Methodology for Utility and 

## Environmental Analysis: Central AirConditioners and Heat Pumps Jim McMahon JEMcMahon@lbl.gov 

### Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

I 

### U.S. Department of Energy 

### Workshop on Standards for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps December 9,1999 4 

## 4EE-RM/STD-98-440 

## UTILITY ANALYSIS :-*: __ __ ___ _. _ __ _i__ _ g . ._ _ _ _ r i PURPOSE

- Estimate effects on utilitiesfrom reduced energy sales due to new energy efficiency standards METHOD uses NEMS-BRS

- DOE/EIA integrated model of U.S. energy sector, including supply and demand

- Publicly available model, with forecastthrough 2020 (Extrapolated to2030 using FEMP method)

- Standards scenarios use National Energy Savings output

- ANOPR analysis: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 1999

- NOPR: update to EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2000

- Central A/C and Heat Pump Utility & Environmental Analysis--EE.IRwUSTD-98-LI440 ALYS X3 

## INPUTS: UTILITY 

## ANALYSIS i 

### * Annual electricitysavings

- from National Energy Savingsspreadsheet 

### * All other inputs from EIAAnnual Energy Outlook

- Central A/C and Heat Pump Utility & Environmental AnalysisEE-RM/STD-98-440 ~ 3 A 

## OUTPUT: UTILITY ANALYSIS ,*:.._.1_. _ .~-~__ _-~_____~ __ _ _~_ ____ _rrrrrr 

### * NEMS-BRS balances all supplyand demand given savingsfrom new energy efficiency standard * Change inelectricitysales and price

- by region 

### * Change inmix ofelectricitygeneration * Change innew capacity construction

--Central A/C and Heat Pump Utility & Environmental Analysis- --EE-RM/STD-98-44O0 q

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## ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ri

_______ .__ __ _==.= . * PURPOSE

- estimate impacts from new energy efficiency standards on U.S. emissions of CO2, NO x, and SO 2 * METHOD

- power plantemissions from NEMS-BRS model

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- -. Central A/C and Heat Pump Utility & Environmental Analysis - -EE-RM/STD-98-440 

## Net National Employment Impacts: Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

_+__ .__„._-.„„_-__ _ „ _ _ _^_ = .=_ .= ., Tfs__f_ rrrrrrrl 

### Jim McMahon JEMcMahon@lbl.gov 

### Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy Workshop on Standards for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps December 9,1999EE-RM/STD-98-440 IH I3 

## Net National Employment Impacts: Definition r-- 

### I * Possible standards could affect consumer spending intwo ways:

- increase purchase price ofregulated products

- decreaseconsumerenergy expenditures * Direct employment impacts will be analyzed in 

### detail inthe manufacturer impact analysis * Net national employment impacts are netjobs created or eliminated inthe U.S. economy as a consequence of new energy efficiencystandards

- Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts -EE.RM/STD-98-44,0 

## Background and approach :---= = _ . = = _ ___ __I ^} M 

### Residential total energy expenditures in1995 were: $129 billion (EIASEPER)

- electricity $87 billion natural gas$29 billion

- distillate $ 6billion LPG $ 4 billion New energy efficiency standards are expected to 

### reduce energy expenditures, usually offsetting projected increases inequipment prices over time. An input/output model estimatesthe effects on various sectors ofthe economyfrom the changes inconsumer spe"-ding.

. __ - Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts 3 I * ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 3EE-RM/STD-98-440 / a3 -Cr 

## MODEL: IMBUILD I Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed spreadsheet model for DOE in1998 Characterized U.S. economy as interconnections among 35 sectors (national input/output structural matrices) INPUT: shifts inexpenditures dueto standards (equipment and energy expenditures from National Energy Savings analysis) OUTPUT: change inemployment by sectoras a consequeiinceLof lnewv standards Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts .- 4 ..EE-RM/STD-98-440 Jl -0 

## Possible employment impacts r.. 

### * Employment by manufacturers of regulated equipment, and their suppliers, may change * Reduced spending forenergy andwater may cause reductions inemployment inthe energy and water supplysectors * Shifting spending awayfrom energy toward other sectors may createjobs inothersectors * Netjob creation or elimination will be estimated

. --- Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts -_
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