11 -i NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS CHAPTER 11.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

11.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 11-1
11.2 BASE

- CASE AND STANDARDS

- CASE PROJECTED EFFICIENCY
DISTRIBUTIONS AND FIXTURE STOCKS ................................................................. 11-1
11.2.1 Base

- Case and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions .................................. 11-2
11.2.2 Installed Lamp Stock ......................................................................................... 11-2
11.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ................................................................................... 11-3
11.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition .................................................................. 11-3
11.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs ........................................................................ 11-4
11.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption .................................................................. 11-4
11.3.2.2 Lamp Stock ......................................................................................... 11-4
11.3.2.3 Site

- to -Source Conversion Factors ..................................................... 11-4
11.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) Systems ................................................................................ 11-5
11.3.2.5 Rebound Rate ...................................................................................... 11-6
11.4 NET PRESENT VALUE .................................................................................................. 11-6
11.4.1 Net Present Value Definition ............................................................................. 11-6
11.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................... 11-7
11.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ................................................ 11-7
11.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings ................................................ 11-7
11.4.2.3 Discount Factor ................................................................................... 11-8
11.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS ............. 11-8
11.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary .................... 11-9
11.5.2 National Energy Savings Results ...................................................................... 11-9
11.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis ............................................................................. 11-11
11.5.4 Net Present Value Results ............................................................................... 11-11

LIST OF TABLES

T able 11.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs ............................................................................. 11-4
Table 11.3.2 Site- to -Source Conversion Factors ....................................................................... 11-5 Table 11.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs ...................................................................................... 11-7 Table 11.5.1 Approach and Data Used for National Energy Savings and Customer Net Present Value Analyses ...................................................................................... 11-9 Table 11.5.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–
2046 for CSL 1 ................................................................................................... 11-9 Table 11.5.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from
2017–2046 for CSL 2....................................................................................... 11-10 Table 11.5.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from
2017–2046 for CSL 3....................................................................................... 11-10 Table 11.5.5 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046
for CSL 1 .......................................................................................................... 11-1211

- ii Table 11.5.6 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046
for CSL 2 .......................................................................................................... 11-12 Table 11.5.7 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046
for CSL 3 .......................................................................................................... 11-1311 -1 CHAPTER 11 . NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

11.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the method for estimating the national impacts of candidate
standard levels ( C SLs ) for analyzed high

- intensity discharge (HID) lamps. Because lamps are designed to operate together with ballasts and most changes to a new lamp/ballast will require a
new fixture , the U.S. Department of Energy ( DOE ) identified a representative HID ballast and
fixture used with each lamp to develop representative HID sys tem s (herein “HID lamp systems”)

. HID ballasts and fixtures will not be regulated under the proposed energy conservation standards for HID lamps ; however, the characteristics of complete HID lamp
system s (energy use, installed cost, etc.) must be considere d for estimating national effects of
CSLs

.

In the national impact s analysis (NIA), DOE assesse d the cumulative national energy savings (NES) and the cumulative national economic impacts of C SL s . DOE measure d energy savings as the cumulative quadrillion British thermal units ( quads) of energy a C SL is expected
to save the nation. DOE measured economic effects as the net present value (NPV) in dollars of total customer costs and savings expected to result from a C SL

.

DOE determine d both the NPV and the NE S for each C SL and each representative equipment class it select ed in the engineering analysis ( interim technical support document ( TSD ) chapter 5). In this rulemaking, DOE consider ed up to three C SL s for each representative HID lamp equipment class

.

DOE perform ed all NIA calculations using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, available at www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/product.aspx/productid/60 . Appendix 11 A
of the interim TSD provides instructions for using the spreadsheet.

The following sections describe in detail the methodology and inputs for the NIA. Several NIA inputs, including per-unit costs, per- unit energy use, and national shipments, are discussed in other analyses. In describing the inputs to the NIA, this chapter references those analyses and presents new information on installed stock. Section 11.2 discusses DOE’s lamp shipment projections by C SL , the installed stock of lamps , and the mix of efficacies of that stock.
Section 11.3 discusses DOE’s calculation of national energy consumption in the base and standards cases, and the resulting difference in NES between these cases. Section 11.4 d iscusses
the NPV calculation. Section 11.5 presents the NES and NPV results by representative equipment class

.

11.2 BASE

- CASE AND STANDARDS

- CASE PROJECTED EFFICIENCY
DISTRIBUTIONS AND FIXTURE STOCKS

The characteristics of DOE’s shipment projection s (such as equipment costs and operating costs) and projected lamp stocks (such as average efficacy and energy use ) are key aspects of DOE’s NES and NPV estimates . This section d escribes these key characteristics of stock and shipments as they relate to the NES and NPV.11 -2 The projected distributions of lamp efficacies shipped and in stock are key factors in determining the NPV . Two inputs to the NPV are the per- unit total installed cost and per -unit annual operating cost. The per- unit total installed cost often varies with the efficacy of the lamps shipped. Therefore, when higher- efficacy lamps are shipped, higher installed cos ts are often
incurred.

Per -unit annual energy consumption (AEC) is a key input to the NPV (as an input to the

per -unit operating cost) and NES. The per-unit AEC is a function of HID lamp system characteristics in the installed stock. The total installed s tock of HID lamp system s is used to determine total annual energy use, a key input into the NES and NPV calculations.

Also important for determining NES and NPV is the average efficacy of the lamp stock. The engineering analysis ( interim TSD c hapter 5) discusses the relationship between HID lamp
system designs and system input power.

Sections 11.3.2 and 11.4.2 discuss inputs to calculation of the NES and NPV in further
detail

.

11.2.1 Base- Case and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions

Because the end

- user price of lamps varies with efficacy level , the base- case and
standards- case projected efficacy distributions of shipments affect the average total installed cost per unit. Generally, as the efficacy of a n HID lamp system ’s design increases, the total installed
cost increases as well . In addition, the base-case and standards- case efficacy distributions affect the average lamp efficacy in the installed stock, an indication of annual energy use. For lamps

, DOE first presented the market share apportionments in the base case in the interim TSD chapter
10. These market share apportionm ents characterize the shipments of lamps for each analyzed equipment class . The projected efficacy distributions of shipments for lamp s depend directly on
these apportionments and the total shipments of a particular lamp type in each year of the analysis period.

11.2.2 Installed Lamp Stock

The installed lamp stock in a given year is the total number of lamp s shipped that year and in prior years that are still operating. The NES model tracks t he lamp s shipped each year

, and lamps are retired when they reach the end of their lifetime . From this information and the shipments projection s presented in the interim TSD c hapter 10 , DOE established the installed lamp stock profile for all analyzed lamp equipment classes.

For some types of lamps, installed stock increases over time. However, most lamp type s experience a decline in stocks over the analysis period due to the encroachment of newer technologies such as induction, high- intensity fluorescent, light

- emitting diode , and lightemitting plasma

.11 -3 11.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

11.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition

DOE calculate d annual national energy savings as the difference in energy consumption by HID lamp systems between the base case (without new standards) and the standards case (with potential standards). Positive values of NES correspond to net energy savings following standards implementation ; i.e. , national AEC with standards is less than AEC in the base case.

t std t baset t 

### conv src AEC AEC NES _) (

, , 

### ×

− = Eq. 11.1

Where :

NES t = national energy savings in year t

, AEC = annual national site energy consumption each year (quads),

t = year in the projection,
base = base case

, std = standards case

, and

sr c_conv t = time -dependent conversion factor to convert from site energy ( kilowatt -hours (kWh) ) to source energy (quads , Btu/kWh).

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of energy savings over a lifetime of equipment, shipped from the implementation of a potential standard in 2017 to 2046:


# ∑

=

t t cum 

### NES NES

Eq. 11.2

Where :

NES
cum = cumulative national energy savings.

DOE calculated the AEC (in any year) by multiplying the number or stock of lamp s by the annual unit energy consumption (UEC) , shown by the following equation:

ld

ld ld 

### UEC STOCK AEC × = 

# ∑

Eq. 11.3

Where :

ld = lamp ID number,
STOCK ld = stock of lamp s for a given design surviving in the year for which DOE calculated AEC, and
UEC ld = unit energy consumption (kWh per year).11 -4 11.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs

Table 11.3.1 lists the inputs for the determination of NES.

Table 11.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs
Input
Unit Energy Consumption ( UEC ) Lamp Stock by Design ( STOCK l d )

Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factor ( src_conv )

11.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption

DOE present s the per -unit UEC for each HID lamp system design in the energy use
characterization in interim TSD chapter 8. For the NES and NPV calculations, DOE used an average number of annual operating hours for each sector in calculating the UEC of each HID lamp system design.

11.3.2.2 Lamp Stock

T he lamp stock in a given year is the sum of the shipments in that year and the total
number of lamp s shipped in prior years that are still surviving in that year . The NES spreadsheet model keeps track of the lamps shipped (and surviving) each year. DOE discusses projected shipments for the base case and all standards cases in interim TSD chapter 10. To generate the shipments that eventually comp ri se the lamp stock, one base- case scenari o and a set of
standards- case scenarios are developed in the shipments model. The base

- case scenario
determine s the total volume of lamp shipments and installed stock. The standards- case scenariosare composed of numerous roll-up scenarios. These scenarios dictate the inputs to the marketshare apportionments, and therefore affect the breakdown of the installed stock by lamp from 2017 to the end of life of the equipment shipped through 2046.

11.3.2.3 Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factors

The site

- to -source conversion factor is the multiplier DOE use d for converting siteenergy consumption into primary or source energy consumption. For electricity, the conversion
factors can vary over time due to projected changes in generation sources ( i.e. , the power plant types projected to provide electricity to the country). For th is i nterim analysis, DOE used time

dependent site- to -source conversion factors derived from the 2012 version of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook ( AEO20 12 ). 1 Table 11.3.2
presents the site

- to -source conversion factors used in the NES spreadsheet model. Because AEO projections only go through 2035, the factors after 2035 are derived as the average of the last 5 years of the AEO projection (2031–2035).11 -5 Table 11.3.2 Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factors

Year Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factor for HID Fixtures
Btu/kWh

2017 10,630

2018 10,076

2019 10,679

2020 10,689

2021 9,631

2022 9,622

2023 9,364

2024 9,461

2025 8,753

2026 8,838

2027 8,878

2028 8,331

2029 8,668

2030 9,131

2031 9,639

2032 9,018

2033 8,171

2034 8,272

2035 7,889

2036 8,598

2037 8,598

2038 8,598

2039 8,598

2040 8,598

2041 8,598

2042 8,598

2043 8,598

2044 8,598

2045 8,598

2046 8,598

11.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air- Conditioning (HVAC) Systems

The HVAC factor reflects the extent to which the energy savings from mo re

- efficient equipment are offset by increased demands placed on heating and cooling equipment in the presence of more- efficient equipment. Typically

, this takes the form of increased efficiency being achieved through less energy wasted as heat, increasing th e burden on HVAC equipment
in winter months.

Consistent with previous and ongoing lighting rulemakings ( for metal halide lamp
fixtures and fluorescent lamp ballasts 2

, 3 ), DOE found that the HVAC factor is highly dependent on the composition of building stock.

Due to the high level of uncertainty in building stock and a large share of lamps being
used outdoors without interaction with HVAC , DOE used an HVAC factor of 1 for calculating energy savings in the interim analysis

.11 -6 11.3.2.5 Rebound Rate

In its analysis, DOE consider ed the rebound effect that occurs after installation of energy efficient lighting equipment. Under economic theory, “rebound effect” refers to the tendency of a

customer to respond to the co st savings associated with more

- effic ient equipment in a manner that actually leads to marginally greater equipment usage, thereby diminishing some portion of the anticipated benefits related to improved efficiency. DOE examined a summary of the literature regarding the rebound effect in rela tion to lighting equipment. 4 Based on four studies, the summary estimated that for a 100

- percent increase in energy effic ien cy , “ take

- back ” or rebound values for commercial and industrial lighting are between zero and 2 percent. In this
interim analysis, DOE assume d a zero percent rebound rate in all three sectors analyzed.

A m ajority of the lamps covered by this proposed rule are exterior and their operating hours, as well as energy use, are driven by daylight hours ( the majority of HID lamps operate at night) , not by the perceived energy expenses of a customer

.

11.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

11.4.1 Net Present Value Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time series of costs and savings. The NPV is
calculated as follows:



### PVCPVSNPV −= Eq. 11.4

Where :

PVS = present value of operating cost savings, and
PVC = present value of increased total installed costs.

The PVS and PVC are determined according to the following expressions:


# ∑ ×= tt 

### DFOCS PVS

Eq. 11.5


# ∑ ×= tt 

### DF TIC PVC

Eq. 11.6

Where :

OCS t = total annual operating cost savings in year t

, TIC t = total annual installed cost increases in year t

, DF t = discount factor associated with year t , and

t = year ( PVS and PVC are summed over the lifetime of equipment shipped in 2017–2046 ).11 -7 DOE determine d the contributions to PVC and PVS for each year from the effective date of the standard, 2017, to the end of life of the equipment shipped through 2046, and discount ed
these costs to 2013 . DOE calculate d savings as the difference between a standards case ( i.e. , with standards) and a base case ( i.e. , without standards). DOE discount ed savings using the discount rate and the number of years between the “present” ( i.e. , year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. DOE calculated the NPV as the sum over time of the discounted net savings (which is equivalent to the approach shown in Eq.
11.4 through Eq. 11.6 ).

11.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs

Table 11.4.1 summarizes the inputs to the NPV calculation.

Table 11.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs
Input

Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ( TICt ) Total Annual Operating Cost Savings ( OCSt )

Discount Factor (DF)

11.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases

DOE calculated the increase in total annual installed costs as the difference between the total annual installed costs in the standards case minus those in the base case. For each case, the
total annual installed cost s equal the product of the shipments and per unit installed cost (summed over each lamp system design):

) (

t ld ld ld

ld t r pricefacto UPPUIC shipments TIC ×+× = 

## ∑

Eq. 11.7

Where:

TI C t = total installed costs in year t

, shipments ld = total shipments of lamp type ld

, UIC ld = unit installation costs of lamp/fixture type ld

, UPP ld = unit post tax price of lamp/fixture type ld

, price factor = price learning index for year t,

t = year, and
ld = lamp ID number.

11.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings

As the life

- cycle cost ( LCC ) and payback period ( PBP ) analysis ( interim TSD chapter 9 ) describes, DOE calculate d total annual operating costs based on national average electricity prices

. DOE calculate d total annual operating cost savings as the difference between total annual operating costs in the base case minus those in the standards cas e. (The only component of annual operating cost for HID lamp system s that is different between the base case and the
standards case is unit energy use.)11 -8 

# ∑ ×× =

ld t ld ld t 

### price y electricit UEC STOCK OCS

Eq. 11.8

Where:

OCS t = total annual operating cost savings in year t

, STOCK ld

= total stock of lamp type ld

, UEC ld = unit energy consumption of lamp type ld

, electricity price t = electricity price associated with lamp type ld

, t = year, and
ld = lamp ID number.

DOE use d an average number of annual operating hours for each sector and lamp type in calculating the UEC of each HID lamp system

. DOE use d AEO 2011 and EIA’s Form 826 to establish all electricity prices

. 1 Chapter 9 of the interim TSD provides the electricity price projection s DOE use d to calculate the NPV.

11.4.2.3 Discount Factor

DOE multiplie d monetary values in future years by the discount factor (DF) to calculate the present value. The following equation describes how to calculate the discount factor:



## ( ) ( )

p tt 

### r DF − 

### +=

11 Eq. 11.9

Where :

r = discount rate,

t = year of the monetary value, and

t p = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE estimate d national impacts with both a 3- percent and a 7

- percent real discount rate as the average real rate of return on private investment in the U.S. economy. These discount rates

were used in accordance with Office of Management and Budget (OMB) guidance to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis (OMB Circular A -4, September 17, 2003), and section E, “Identifying and Measur ing Benefits and Costs,” therein. 5 DOE define d the
present year as 2013 for th e i nterim analysis.

11.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

The NES spreadsheet model provides estimates of the NES and NPV due to various
C SL s. The inputs to the N ES and NPV spreadsheet are discussed in sections 11.3.2 and 11.4.2

, respectively . DOE generated the NES and NPV results using Microsoft Excel spreadsheet s, accessible at www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/product.aspx/productid/60

.11 -9 11.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary

Table 11.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NES spreadsheet model. A brief description of the data is given for each input.

Table 11.5.1 Approach and Data Used for National Energy Savings and Customer Net
Present Value Analyses
Inputs Interim TSD

Shipments Developed annual shipments from shipments model (interim TSD chapter 10) Compliance Date of Standard 20 17 Annual Energy Consumption per
Unit Established in the energy use analysis ( interim TSD chapter 8 )

Rebound Effect 0% Electricity Price Forecast AEO201 2 Energy Site

- to

- Source Conversion

Factor Used annually variable site kWh

- to

source

- Btu conversion factors

Discount Rate 3% and 7% real

Present Year 201 3

11.5.2 National Energy Savings Results

The following section provides NES results for each C SL that DOE calculated for HID lamps. Table 11.5.2 through Table 11.5.4 show cumulative NES r esults over the lifetime of the equipment sold in 2017–2046 in quads of primary energy for each of the three CSLs

.

Table 11.5.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–
2046 for CSL 1

Candidate
Standard

Level Representative Equipment
Class Representative Lamp Type National Energy Savings quads*

Roll

- up Scenario

1 ≥1900 K and ≤2800 K; ≥50 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed HPS 70 W 0.04

HPS 100 W 0.05

HPS 250 W 0.14

HPS 400 W 0.19

HPS 1000 W 0.15

>2800 K and ≤4500 K; ≥50 W and ≤400 W; clear; enclosed MV 100 W 0.00

MV 175 W 0.01

MV 250 W 0.01

MV 400 W 0.03 probe MH 400 W 0.00 >2800 K and ≤4500 K >400 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed MV 1000 W 0.00

probe MH 1000 W 0.00

>2800 K and ≤4500 K; >1000 W and ≤2000 W; clear; enclosed probe MH 2000 W 0.01

TOTAL CSL 1 0.63
* quads = quadrillion British thermal units of primary (source) energy.11

- 10 Table 11.5.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from
2017–2046 for CSL 2

Candidate
Standard

Level Representative Equipment
Class Representative Lamp Type National Energy Savings quads

Roll

- up Scenario

2 ≥1900 K and ≤2800 K; ≥50 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed HPS 70 W 0.04

HPS 100 W 0.05

HPS 250 W 0.14

HPS 400 W 0.19

HPS 1000 W 0.15

>2800 K and ≤4500 K; ≥50 W and ≤400 W; clear; enclosed MV 100 W 0.00

MV 175 W 0.01

MV 250 W 0.02

MV 400 W 0.08 probe MH 400 W 0.29 >2800 K and ≤4500 K >400 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed MV 1000 W 0.00

probe MH 1000 W 0.17
>2800 K and ≤4500 K; >1000 W and ≤2000 W; clear; enclosed probe MH 2000 W 0.01

TOTAL CSL 2 1.16

Table 11.5.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from
2017–2046 for CSL 3

Candidate
Standard

Level Representative Equipment
Class Representative Lamp Type National Energy Savings quads

Roll

- up Scenario

3 ≥1900 K and ≤2800 K; ≥50 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed HPS 70 W 0.04

HPS 100 W 0.05

HPS 250 W 0.14

HPS 400 W 0.19

HPS 1000 W 0.15

>2800 K and ≤4500 K; ≥50 W and ≤400 W; clear; enclosed MV 100 W 0.28

MV 175 W 0.19

MV 250 W 0.36

MV 400 W 0.85 probe MH 400 W 2.23 >2800 K and ≤4500 K >400 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed MV 1000 W 0.00

probe MH 1000 W 0.17
>2800 K and ≤4500 K; >1000 W and ≤2000 W; clear; enclosed probe MH 2000 W 0.01

TOTAL CSL 3 4.6711

- 11 11.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis

The NPV calculation attempts to calculate the total monetary costs and benefits of the
standard for all customers of HID lamp systems . This calculation relies primarily on two inputs: (1) the NES calculations described in the previous section, which are translated into a decrease (or in some cases increase) in operating costs ; and (2) the increase (o r in some cases decrease) in
installed costs.

In most cases the operating cost savings, installed costs increases, and NPV all trend toward zero over time, reflecting the impacts of discounting.

NPV results are cumulative and shown as the discounted value of these savings in dollar
terms. DOE use d national averages for key inputs such as electricity pricing and sector

- specific point values for operating hours in calculating operating cost savings and installed cost increases

. Thus, the NPV results are discrete point values rather than a distribution of values as in the LCC and PBP analyses.

The present value of increased total installed costs is the total installed cost increase ( i.e.

, the difference between the standards case and base case in a given year), discounted to the present, and summed over the time period in which DOE evaluated the impact of standards ( i.e.

, from the effective date of standards, 2017, to the end of life of the equipment shipped through 2046).

Savings are decreases in operati ng costs associated with higher- efficacy lamps purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated total annual operating cost savings as the difference between total annual operating costs in the base case minus those in the
standards case. Eq. 11.8 gives the total annual operating costs in each case.

11.5.4 Net Present Value Results

Table 11.5.5 through Table 11.5.7 show the NPV results in tabular format for both 7- and 3-percent discount rates. Energy savings do not necessarily correspond to NPV savings. In fact, this rule has predominantly negative NPV s, indicating that increases in the installed costs outweigh operating costs savings. This is due to the need to exchange many fixtures in the standards case after the rule goes into effect. When a customer can no longer buy a lamp due to a standard, they cannot operate a fixture anymore, which necessitates a new fixture purchase in the standards case. In the base case, the lamps are still available, so a lamp or lamp and ballast purchase will often suffice.11

- 12 Table 11.5.5 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046 for
CSL 1

Candidate
Standard

Level Representative Equipment
Class Representative Lamp Type Net Present Value
billion 201 2$

Roll

- up Scenario

7

- Percent
Discount Rate 3

- Percent
Discount Rate

1 ≥1900 K and ≤2800 K; ≥50 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed HPS 70 W

- 1.79

- 2.40

HPS 100 W

- 1.79

- 2.45

HPS 250 W

- 2.58

- 3.33

HPS 400 W

- 2.10

- 2.62

HPS 1000 W

- 1.05

- 1.36

>2800 K and ≤4500 K; ≥50 W and ≤400 W; clear; enclosed MV 100 W

- 0.002

- 0.002

MV 175 W 0.02 0.02

MV 250 W

- 0.01

- 0.02

MV 400 W

- 0.01

- 0.01 probe MH 400 W 0.00 0.00 >2800 K and ≤4500 K >400 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed MV 1000 W 0.00 0.00

probe MH 1000 W 0.00 0.00

>2800 K and ≤4500 K; >1000 W and ≤2000 W; clear; enclosed probe MH 2000 W

- 0.08

- 0.10

TOTAL CSL 1

- 9.40

- 12.26

Table 11.5.6 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017 –2046 for
CSL 2

Candidate
Standard

Level Representative Equipment
Class Representative Lamp Type Net Present Value
billion 201 2$

Roll

- up Scenario

7

- Percent
Discount Rate 3

- Percent
Discount Rate

2 ≥1900 K and ≤2800 K; ≥50 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed HPS 70 W

- 1.79

- 2.40

HPS 100 W

- 1.79

- 2.45

HPS 250 W

- 2.58

- 3.33

HPS 400 W

- 2.10

- 2.62

HPS 1000 W

- 1.05

- 1.36

>2800 K and ≤4500 K; ≥50 W and ≤400 W; clear; enclosed MV 100 W

- 0.002

- 0.002

MV 175 W 0.02 0.02

MV 250 W

- 0.73

- 0.95

MV 400 W

- 0.96

- 1.22 probe MH 400 W

- 0.40

- 0.36 >2800 K and ≤4500 K >400 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed MV 1000 W 0.00 0.00

probe MH 1000 W

- 1.01

- 1.20
>2800 K and ≤4500 K; >1000 W and ≤2000 W; clear; enclosed probe MH 2000 W

- 0.08

- 0.10

TOTAL CSL 2

- 12.48

- 15.9611

- 13 Table 11.5.7 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017 –2046 for
CSL 3

Candidate
Standard

Level Representative Equipment
Class Representative Lamp Type Net Present Value
billion 201 2$

Roll

- up Scenario

7

- Percent
Discount Rate 3

- Percent
Discount Rate

3 ≥1900 K and ≤2800 K; ≥50 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed HPS 70 W

- 1.79

- 2.40

HPS 100 W

- 1.79

- 2.45

HPS 250 W

- 2.58

- 3.33

HPS 400 W

- 2.10

- 2.62

HPS 1000 W

- 1.05

- 1.36

>2800 K and ≤4500 K; ≥50 W and ≤400 W; clear; enclosed MV 100 W

- 0.29

- 0.12

MV 175 W

- 0.35

- 0.33

MV 250 W

- 0.81

- 0.78

MV 400 W

- 1.60

- 1.16 probe MH 400 W

- 0.51 1.55 >2800 K and ≤4500 K >400 W and ≤1000 W; clear; enclosed MV 1000 W 0.00 0.00

probe MH 1000 W

- 1.01

- 1.20
>2800 K and ≤4500 K; >1000 W and ≤2000 W; clear; enclosed probe MH 2000 W

- 0.08

- 0.10

TOTAL CSL 3

- 13.96

- 14.3011

- 14 REFERENCES

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2012 with Projections to
2035 . 2012 . (Last accessed February 19, 2013 .)

< www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo12/index.cfm >

2. U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment : Preliminary Technical Support Document: Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures . 2011. Washington, D.C. < www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2009- BT

- STD

0018-0021 >

3

. U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Final Rule Technical Support Docume nt: Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts. 2011. Washington, D.C.

< www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2007- BT

- STD -0016-0067 >

4. Greening, L.A., D.L. Greene, and C. D ifiglio . 2000. Energy E fficiency and Consumption–

T he Rebound E ffect : A Survey. Energy Policy . 28: pp. 389–401.

5. Office of Management and Budget. Circular A -4. September 2003. Washington, D.C.

< www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/regulatory_matters_pdf/a -4.pdf >