On-Time Graduation Project

 

1

Purpose of the Project

One in four students in the United States fails to 

graduate from high school, and graduation rates are 

significantly lower for students who are racial or ethnic 

minorities, economically disadvantaged, migrant and/or 

limited-English proficient, or receiving special education 

services. However, strong foundational research 

highlights critical indicators in ninth and tenth grade that 

powerfully predict whether students are “on track” for 

high school graduation. These indicators, which typically 

focus on student engagement measures (attendance) 

and course performance (grades, credits earned), can be 

used as part of an early warning system to flag at-risk 

students early, assign appropriate interventions, and get 

students back on track for graduation.

As part of Ohio’s Comprehensive Continuous 

Improvement Plan, the state has committed, through 

adoption of the Ohio Improvement Process, to 

promoting student success through data-driven decision 

making, targeted programming, ongoing student 

monitoring, and evaluation of improvement process 

effectiveness. Use of an early warning system is one

strategy that schools can use within the Ohio 

Improvement Process.

One such early warning system is the Early Warning and 

Intervention Monitoring System (EWIMS) developed by 

the National High School Center. The EWIMS model 

encourages educators to use data to consider and 

provide appropriate interventions to students, and 

provides a means for monitoring student progress over 

time. At the core of EWIMS is the use of simple tools that 

encourage educators to routinely examine indicators that 

identify students as “off track” and take action. 

Despite increasingly widespread implementation of early 

warning systems by states, districts, and schools, there 

have been no rigorous studies testing the impact of using 

an early warning system to improve student outcomes 

such as staying in school, progressing in school, and 

probability of graduating. There is also little research 

examining how using an early warning system can shape 

a school’s culture for data use (including how schools 

allocate their limited dropout prevention resources).

To address this gap, the On-Time Graduation Project will 

provide the first rigorous test of the impact of an early 

warning system. This project, funded by the U.S. 

Department of Education’s Institutes of Educational 

Sciences, is being conducted by the Midwest Regional 

Educational Laboratory at the American Institutes for 

Research. 

The projectwill examine the impact of EWIMS on (1) 

student outcomes including student risk status for 

dropout, scores on graduation tests, persistence and 

progress in school and likelihood of on-time graduation; 

and (2) school outcomes including how schools allocate 

dropout prevention interventions for students and their 

data-use culture. Participating in this high-profile, largescale projectwill give your school and district an 

opportunity to access these innovative resources at no 

cost and help inform educational policy in Ohio and at 

the nationallevel.

Project Approach

The project will take place in approximately 70 high 

schools in Ohio during the 2013–14 and 2014–15 school 

years. All schools that participate in the project will 

receive the early warning system at no cost. Participating 

schools will be assigned by lottery to receive access to 

the EWIMS model, including the tool and high-quality 

professional development for implementation, in the 

2013–2014 school year or the fall of 2015 (following the 

completion of the project). Schools assigned to receive 

the EWIMS model in the fall of 2015 will continue 

“business as usual” practices to identify at-risk students 

and allocatedropout prevention resources through 

2014–15. 

The project will examine student outcomes for all 

students in Grades 9 and 10 during the 2013–14 school 

year and all students in Grades 9 through 11 during the 

2014–15 school year for schools that implement EWIMS 

in 2013–2014 and those that do not implement EWIMS 

until the fall of 2015. All student outcome data will be 

collected from school or district administrative data, the 

early warning system tool, or the Ohio Department of 

Education. There will be no primary student data 

collection for this project. To understand how EWIMS 

may impact schools, all participating schools will be 

asked to complete an annual Web-based survey about 

data use practices, and schools implementing EWIMS 

during the two-year project may be asked to participate 

in interviews about their experiences using the tool.
2

EWIMS Intervention

The EWIMS process is designed to identify students who 

are at risk of dropping out of school and to support and 

monitor at-risk students through school-wide strategies 

and targeted interventions. EWIMS is currently in use in 

67 districts in six states, and the tool has been 

downloaded more than 20,000 times from the National 

High School Center’s website. 

EWIMS Tool. At the heart of the EWIMS model is an early 

warning data tool used to flag students as “at risk” based 

on attendance, course performance (grades, credits, 

GPA), and behavior indicators. The tool enables users to 

identify students who are at risk of dropping out of 

school, record assignments to available interventions, 

and monitor students’ response to those interventions. 

The tool provides a number of reports accessible to 

users, including: 

 School-Level Reports: Graphical reports that show 

trends in student risk status across the school

 Student-Level Reports: Lists of students, grouped by 

indicators of risk and/or assigned intervention 

programs, that include summary information

 Detailed Student Reports: Simple reports that can be 

generated for each individual student and show 

student information, indicators of risk status, and any 

assigned interventions

 Student-Level Intervention Summary Reports: Lists of 

students, their indicators of risk (flagged or not 

flagged), and the number and types of interventions to 

which each student was assigned

EWIMS Implementation Process. In addition to the tool, 

the National High School Center has devised a seven-step 

EWIMS implementation process to support 

implementation. The process guides users to make 

informed decisions about how to use data to support atrisk students and how to continue to monitor their 

progress over time. In addition to focusing on individual 

students, the process guides users to examine the 

success of specific supports or interventions and to 

examine possible systemic issues (school climate) that 

may relate to dropout trends.

EWIMS Seven-Step Implementation Cycle

Initial Criteria for Participation

The project will include approximately 70 high schools in 

Ohio. To qualify, schools must (1) have at least 150 ninthgrade students; (2) a graduation rate between 25 and 95 

percent and (3) not already be implementing an early 

warning system tool for using data to flag at-risk 

students. 

Project Timeline

Through January 2014, the project team will discuss 

participation with districts and schools that meet the 

initial criteria and conduct on-site or virtual meetings 

with school principals, guidance counselors and dropout 

prevention coordinators. Participating schools will sign 

memoranda of understanding in January 2014 and be 

assigned by lottery to receive access to the EWIMS 

model, including the tool and high-quality professional 

development on the implementation process, in January 

2014 (treatment group) or the 2015–2016 school year 

(“business as usual” control group). Training for EWIMS 

implementation in treatment schools will begin in early 

2014. Data collection activities will continue throughout 

but not beyond the 2014–15 school year.

For Additional Information

For more information or to begin a conversation about 

partnering on this project, contact Dr. Nicholas Sorensen 

(nsorensen@air.org or 312-283-2318) or Dr. Mindee 

O’Cummings (mocummings@air.org or 202-403-5254).

STEP 1—

Establish Roles 

& Process

STEP 2—Use the 

EWIMS Tool

STEP 3—Analyze 

EWIMS Data

STEP 4—

Interpret 

EWIMS Data 

STEP 5—Assign 

& Provide 

Interventions

STEP 6—

Monitor 

Students

STEP 7—

Evaluate & 

Refine EWIMS