11-i

CHAPTER 11. NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

11.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 11-1

11.2 BASE-CASE AND STANDARDS-CASE PROJECTED EFFICIENCY 

DISTRIBUTIONS AND FIXTURE STOCKS ................................................................. 11-1

11.2.1 Base-Case and Standards-Case Efficiency Distributions .................................. 11-2

11.2.2 Installed Lamp Stock ......................................................................................... 11-2

11.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ................................................................................... 11-3

11.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition .................................................................. 11-3

11.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs ........................................................................ 11-4

11.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption .................................................................. 11-4

11.3.2.2 Lamp Stock ......................................................................................... 11-4

11.3.2.3 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors ..................................................... 11-4

11.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning 

(HVAC) Systems ................................................................................ 11-5

11.3.2.5 Rebound Rate ...................................................................................... 11-6

11.4 NET PRESENT VALUE .................................................................................................. 11-6

11.4.1 Net Present Value Definition ............................................................................. 11-6

11.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................... 11-7

11.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ................................................ 11-7

11.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings ................................................ 11-7

11.4.2.3 Discount Factor ................................................................................... 11-8

11.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS ............. 11-8

11.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary .................... 11-9

11.5.2 National Energy Savings Results ...................................................................... 11-9

11.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis ............................................................................. 11-11

11.5.4 Net Present Value Results ............................................................................... 11-11

LIST OF TABLES

Table 11.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs ............................................................................. 11-4

Table 11.3.2 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors ....................................................................... 11-5

Table 11.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs ...................................................................................... 11-7

Table 11.5.1 Approach and Data Used for National Energy Savings and Customer Net 

Present Value Analyses...................................................................................... 11-9

Table 11.5.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–

2046 for CSL 1................................................................................................... 11-9

Table 11.5.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from 

2017–2046 for CSL 2....................................................................................... 11-10

Table 11.5.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from 

2017–2046 for CSL 3....................................................................................... 11-10

Table 11.5.5 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046 

for CSL 1.......................................................................................................... 11-12
11-ii

Table 11.5.6 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046 

for CSL 2.......................................................................................................... 11-12

Table 11.5.7 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046 

for CSL 3.......................................................................................................... 11-13
11-1

CHAPTER 11. NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS 

11.1 INTRODUCTION 

This chapter describes the method for estimating the national impacts of candidate 

standard levels (CSLs) for analyzed high-intensity discharge (HID) lamps. Because lamps are 

designed to operate together with ballasts and most changes to a new lamp/ballast will require a 

new fixture, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) identified a representative HID ballast and 

fixture used with each lamp to develop representative HID systems (herein “HID lamp 

systems”). HID ballasts and fixtures will not be regulated under the proposed energy 

conservation standards for HID lamps; however, the characteristics of complete HID lamp 

systems (energy use, installed cost, etc.) must be considered for estimating national effects of 

CSLs. 

In the national impacts analysis (NIA), DOE assessed the cumulative national energy 

savings (NES) and the cumulative national economic impacts of CSLs. DOE measured energy 

savings as the cumulative quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of energy a CSL is expected 

to save the nation. DOE measured economic effects as the net present value (NPV) in dollars of 

total customer costs and savings expected to result from a CSL. 

DOE determined both the NPV and the NES for each CSL and each representative 

equipment class it selected in the engineering analysis (interim technical support document 

(TSD) chapter 5). In this rulemaking, DOE considered up to three CSLs for each representative 

HID lamp equipment class. 

DOE performed all NIA calculations using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, available at

www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/product.aspx/productid/60. Appendix 11A 

of the interim TSD provides instructions for using the spreadsheet. 

The following sections describe in detail the methodology and inputs for the NIA. 

Several NIA inputs, including per-unit costs, per-unit energy use, and national shipments, are 

discussed in other analyses. In describing the inputs to the NIA, this chapter references those 

analyses and presents new information on installed stock. Section 11.2 discusses DOE’s lamp 

shipment projections by CSL, the installed stock of lamps, and the mix of efficacies of that stock. 

Section 11.3 discusses DOE’s calculation of national energy consumption in the base and 

standards cases, and the resulting difference in NES between these cases. Section 11.4 discusses 

the NPV calculation. Section 11.5 presents the NES and NPV results by representative 

equipment class. 

11.2 BASE-CASE AND STANDARDS-CASE PROJECTED EFFICIENCY 

DISTRIBUTIONS AND FIXTURE STOCKS

The characteristics of DOE’s shipment projections (such as equipment costs and 

operating costs) and projected lamp stocks (such as average efficacy and energy use) are key 

aspects of DOE’s NES and NPV estimates. This section describes these key characteristics of 

stock and shipments as they relate to the NES and NPV. 
11-2

The projected distributions of lamp efficacies shipped and in stock are key factors in 

determining the NPV. Two inputs to the NPV are the per-unit total installed cost and per-unit 

annual operating cost. The per-unit total installed cost often varies with the efficacy of the lamps 

shipped. Therefore, when higher-efficacy lamps are shipped, higher installed costs are often 

incurred. 

Per-unit annual energy consumption (AEC) is a key input to the NPV (as an input to the 

per-unit operating cost) and NES. The per-unit AEC is a function of HID lamp system

characteristics in the installed stock. The total installed stock of HID lamp systems is used to 

determine total annual energy use, a key input into the NES and NPV calculations. 

Also important for determining NES and NPV is the average efficacy of the lamp stock. 

The engineering analysis (interim TSD chapter 5) discusses the relationship between HID lamp 

system designs and system input power. 

Sections 11.3.2 and 11.4.2 discuss inputs to calculation of the NES and NPV in further 

detail. 

11.2.1 Base-Case and Standards-Case Efficiency Distributions

Because the end-user price of lamps varies with efficacy level, the base-case and 

standards-case projected efficacy distributions of shipments affect the average total installed cost 

per unit. Generally, as the efficacy of an HID lamp system’s design increases, the total installed 

cost increases as well. In addition, the base-case and standards-case efficacy distributions affect 

the average lamp efficacy in the installed stock, an indication of annual energy use. For lamps, 

DOE first presented the market share apportionments in the base case in the interim TSD chapter 

10. These market share apportionments characterize the shipments of lamps for each analyzed 

equipment class. The projected efficacy distributions of shipments for lamps depend directly on 

these apportionments and the total shipments of a particular lamp type in each year of the 

analysis period. 

11.2.2 Installed Lamp Stock

The installed lamp stock in a given year is the total number of lamps shipped that year 

and in prior years that are still operating. The NES model tracks the lamps shipped each year, 

and lamps are retired when they reach the end of their lifetime. From this information and the 

shipments projections presented in the interim TSD chapter 10, DOE established the installed 

lamp stock profile for all analyzed lamp equipment classes. 

For some types of lamps, installed stock increases over time. However, most lamp types 

experience a decline in stocks over the analysis period due to the encroachment of newer 

technologies such as induction, high-intensity fluorescent, light-emitting diode, and lightemitting plasma. 
11-3

11.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

11.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition 

DOE calculated annual national energy savings as the difference in energy consumption 

by HID lamp systems between the base case (without new standards) and the standards case 

(with potential standards). Positive values of NES correspond to net energy savings following 

standards implementation; i.e., national AEC with standards is less than AEC in the base case. 

t baset t std t NES (AEC AEC src _) conv = , − , ×

Eq. 11.1 

Where: 

NESt = national energy savings in year t, 

AEC = annual national site energy consumption each year (quads), 

t = year in the projection, 

base = base case, 

std = standards case, and

src_convt = time-dependent conversion factor to convert from site energy (kilowatt-hours (kWh)) 

to source energy (quads, Btu/kWh). 

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of energy savings over a lifetime of equipment,

shipped from the implementation of a potential standard in 2017 to 2046: 

= ∑t

NEScum NESt

Eq. 11.2 

Where: 

NEScum = cumulative national energy savings. 

DOE calculated the AEC (in any year) by multiplying the number or stock of lamps by 

the annual unit energy consumption (UEC), shown by the following equation: 

ld

ld

AEC = ∑STOCKld ×UEC

Eq. 11.3 

Where: 

ld = lamp ID number, 

STOCKld = stock of lamps for a given design surviving in the year for which DOE calculated 

AEC, and

UECld = unit energy consumption (kWh per year). 
11-4

11.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs 

Table 11.3.1 lists the inputs for the determination of NES.

Table 11.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs 

Input

Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)

Lamp Stock by Design (STOCKld)

Site-to-Source Conversion Factor (src_conv)

11.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption 

DOE presents the per-unit UEC for each HID lamp system design in the energy use 

characterization in interim TSD chapter 8. For the NES and NPV calculations, DOE used an 

average number of annual operating hours for each sector in calculating the UEC of each HID 

lamp system design. 

11.3.2.2 Lamp Stock

The lamp stock in a given year is the sum of the shipments in that year and the total 

number of lamps shipped in prior years that are still surviving in that year. The NES spreadsheet 

model keeps track of the lamps shipped (and surviving) each year. DOE discusses projected

shipments for the base case and all standards cases in interim TSD chapter 10. To generate the 

shipments that eventually comprise the lamp stock, one base-case scenario and a set of 

standards-case scenarios are developed in the shipments model. The base-case scenario

determines the total volume of lamp shipments and installed stock. The standards-case scenarios 

are composed of numerous roll-up scenarios. These scenarios dictate the inputs to the marketshare apportionments, and therefore affect the breakdown of the installed stock by lamp from 

2017 to the end of life of the equipment shipped through 2046. 

11.3.2.3 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

The site-to-source conversion factor is the multiplier DOE used for converting siteenergy consumption into primary or source energy consumption. For electricity, the conversion 

factors can vary over time due to projected changes in generation sources (i.e., the power plant 

types projected to provide electricity to the country). For this interim analysis, DOE used timedependent site-to-source conversion factors derived from the 2012 version of the U.S. Energy 

Information Administration’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2012).1 Table 11.3.2

presents the site-to-source conversion factors used in the NES spreadsheet model. Because AEO

projections only go through 2035, the factors after 2035 are derived as the average of the last 5 

years of the AEO projection (2031–2035). 
11-5

Table 11.3.2 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

Year Site-to-Source Conversion Factor for HID Fixtures

Btu/kWh

2017 10,630 

2018 10,076 

2019 10,679 

2020 10,689 

2021 9,631 

2022 9,622 

2023 9,364 

2024 9,461 

2025 8,753 

2026 8,838 

2027 8,878 

2028 8,331 

2029 8,668 

2030 9,131 

2031 9,639 

2032 9,018 

2033 8,171 

2034 8,272 

2035 7,889 

2036 8,598 

2037 8,598 

2038 8,598 

2039 8,598 

2040 8,598 

2041 8,598 

2042 8,598 

2043 8,598 

2044 8,598 

2045 8,598 

2046 8,598 

11.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) 

Systems

The HVAC factor reflects the extent to which the energy savings from more-efficient 

equipment are offset by increased demands placed on heating and cooling equipment in the 

presence of more-efficient equipment. Typically, this takes the form of increased efficiency 

being achieved through less energy wasted as heat, increasing the burden on HVAC equipment 

in winter months. 

Consistent with previous and ongoing lighting rulemakings (for metal halide lamp 

fixtures and fluorescent lamp ballasts2,3

), DOE found that the HVAC factor is highly dependent 

on the composition of building stock. 

 Due to the high level of uncertainty in building stock and a large share of lamps being 

used outdoors without interaction with HVAC, DOE used an HVAC factor of 1 for calculating

energy savings in the interim analysis. 
11-6

11.3.2.5 Rebound Rate

In its analysis, DOE considered the rebound effect that occurs after installation of energy 

efficient lighting equipment. Under economic theory, “rebound effect” refers to the tendency of a 

customer to respond to the cost savings associated with more-efficient equipment in a manner 

that actually leads to marginally greater equipment usage, thereby diminishing some portion of 

the anticipated benefits related to improved efficiency. DOE examined a summary of the 

literature regarding the rebound effect in relation to lighting equipment.4 Based on four studies, 

the summary estimated that for a 100-percent increase in energy efficiency, “take-back” or 

rebound values for commercial and industrial lighting are between zero and 2 percent. In this 

interim analysis, DOE assumed a zero percent rebound rate in all three sectors analyzed. 

A majority of the lamps covered by this proposed rule are exterior and their operating 

hours, as well as energy use, are driven by daylight hours (the majority of HID lamps operate at 

night), not by the perceived energy expenses of a customer. 

11.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

11.4.1 Net Present Value Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time series of costs and savings. The NPV is 

calculated as follows: 

−= PVCPVSNPV

Eq. 11.4 

Where: 

PVS = present value of operating cost savings, and

PVC = present value of increased total installed costs.

The PVS and PVC are determined according to the following expressions: 

PVS ∑ ×= DFOCS tt

Eq. 11.5 

PVC ∑TIC ×= DFtt

Eq. 11.6 

Where: 

OCSt = total annual operating cost savings in year t, 

TICt = total annual installed cost increases in year t, 

DFt = discount factor associated with year t, and 

t = year (PVS and PVC are summed over the lifetime of equipment shipped in 2017–2046).
11-7

DOE determined the contributions to PVC and PVS for each year from the effective date 

of the standard, 2017, to the end of life of the equipment shipped through 2046, and discounted

these costs to 2013. DOE calculated savings as the difference between a standards case (i.e., with

standards) and a base case (i.e., without standards). DOE discounted savings using the discount 

rate and the number of years between the “present” (i.e., year to which the sum is being 

discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. DOE calculated the NPV as the 

sum over time of the discounted net savings (which is equivalent to the approach shown in Eq. 

11.4 through Eq. 11.6).

11.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs

Table 11.4.1 summarizes the inputs to the NPV calculation.

Table 11.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs

Input

Total Annual Installed Cost Increases (TICt)

Total Annual Operating Cost Savings (OCSt)

Discount Factor (DF)

11.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases 

DOE calculated the increase in total annual installed costs as the difference between the 

total annual installed costs in the standards case minus those in the base case. For each case, the 

total annual installed costs equal the product of the shipments and per unit installed cost 

(summed over each lamp system design): 

( ) ld ld ld t

ld

t TIC = ∑ shipments UPPUIC ×+× pricefactor

Eq. 11.7 

Where:

TICt = total installed costs in year t, 

shipments ld = total shipments of lamp type ld, 

UICld = unit installation costs of lamp/fixture type ld, 

UPPld = unit post tax price of lamp/fixture type ld, 

pricefactor = price learning index for year t,

t = year, and

ld = lamp ID number. 

11.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings 

As the life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback period (PBP) analysis (interim TSD chapter 9) 

describes, DOE calculated total annual operating costs based on national average electricity 

prices. DOE calculated total annual operating cost savings as the difference between total annual 

operating costs in the base case minus those in the standards case. (The only component of 

annual operating cost for HID lamp systems that is different between the base case and the 

standards case is unit energy use.) 
11-8

= ∑ ××

ld

t ld ld t OCS STOCK UEC electricity price

Eq. 11.8 

Where:

OCSt = total annual operating cost savings in year t, 

STOCKld = total stock of lamp type ld, 

UECld = unit energy consumption of lamp type ld, 

electricity pricet = electricity price associated with lamp type ld, 

t = year, and

ld = lamp ID number. 

DOE used an average number of annual operating hours for each sector and lamp type in 

calculating the UEC of each HID lamp system. DOE used AEO2011and EIA’s Form 826 to 

establish all electricity prices.

1 Chapter 9 of the interim TSD provides the electricity price 

projections DOE used to calculate the NPV. 

11.4.2.3 Discount Factor 

DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by the discount factor (DF) to calculate 

the present value. The following equation describes how to calculate the discount factor: 

( )( ) ptt DF r − 11 +=

Eq. 11.9 

Where: 

r = discount rate, 

t = year of the monetary value, and

tp = year in which the present value is being determined. 

DOE estimated national impacts with both a 3-percent and a 7-percent real discount rate 

as the average real rate of return on private investment in the U.S. economy. These discount rates 

were used in accordance with Office of Management and Budget (OMB) guidance to Federal 

agencies on the development of regulatory analysis (OMB Circular A-4, September 17, 2003), 

and section E, “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs,” therein.5 DOE defined the 

present year as 2013 for the interim analysis.

11.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

The NES spreadsheet model provides estimates of the NES and NPV due to various 

CSLs. The inputs to the NES and NPV spreadsheet are discussed in sections 11.3.2 and 11.4.2, 

respectively. DOE generated the NES and NPV results using Microsoft Excelspreadsheets, 

accessible at www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/product.aspx/productid/60. 
11-9

11.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary

Table 11.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NES spreadsheet model. A brief description of 

the data is given for each input. 

Table 11.5.1 Approach and Data Used for National Energy Savings and Customer Net 

Present Value Analyses 

Inputs Interim TSD

Shipments

Developed annual shipments from 

shipments model (interim TSD 

chapter 10)

Compliance Date of Standard 2017

Annual Energy Consumption per 

Unit

Established in the energy use 

analysis (interim TSD chapter 8)

Rebound Effect 0% 

Electricity Price Forecast AEO2012

Energy Site-to-Source Conversion 

Factor

Used annually variable site kWh-tosource-Btu conversion factors

Discount Rate 3% and 7% real

Present Year 2013

11.5.2 National Energy Savings Results

The following section provides NES results for each CSL that DOE calculated for HID 

lamps. Table 11.5.2 through Table 11.5.4 show cumulative NES results over the lifetime of the 

equipment sold in 2017–2046 in quads of primary energy for each of the three CSLs. 

Table 11.5.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–

2046 for CSL 1

Candidate 

Standard 

Level

Representative Equipment 

Class

Representative Lamp 

Type

National Energy Savings

quads*

Roll-up Scenario

1 

≥1900 K and ≤2800 K;

≥50 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

HPS 70 W 0.04

HPS 100 W 0.05

HPS 250 W 0.14

HPS 400 W 0.19

HPS 1000 W 0.15

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

≥50 W and ≤400 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 100 W 0.00

MV 175 W 0.01

MV 250 W 0.01

MV 400 W 0.03

probe MH 400 W 0.00

>2800 K and ≤4500 K

>400 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 1000 W 0.00

probe MH 1000 W 0.00

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

>1000 W and ≤2000 W;

clear; enclosed 

probe MH 2000 W 0.01

TOTAL CSL 1 0.63

* quads = quadrillion British thermal units of primary (source) energy.
11-10

Table 11.5.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from 

2017–2046 for CSL 2

Candidate 

Standard 

Level

Representative Equipment 

Class

Representative Lamp 

Type

National Energy Savings

quads

Roll-up Scenario

2 

≥1900 K and ≤2800 K;

≥50 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

HPS 70 W 0.04

HPS 100 W 0.05

HPS 250 W 0.14

HPS 400 W 0.19

HPS 1000 W 0.15

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

≥50 W and ≤400 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 100 W 0.00

MV 175 W 0.01

MV 250 W 0.02

MV 400 W 0.08

probe MH 400 W 0.29

>2800 K and ≤4500 K

>400 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 1000 W 0.00

probe MH 1000 W 0.17

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

>1000 W and ≤2000 W;

clear; enclosed 

probe MH 2000 W 0.01

TOTAL CSL 2 1.16

Table 11.5.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for HID Lamps Purchased from 

2017–2046 for CSL 3

Candidate 

Standard 

Level

Representative Equipment 

Class

Representative Lamp 

Type

National Energy Savings

quads

Roll-up Scenario

3 

≥1900 K and ≤2800 K;

≥50 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

HPS 70 W 0.04

HPS 100 W 0.05

HPS 250 W 0.14

HPS 400 W 0.19

HPS 1000 W 0.15

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

≥50 W and ≤400 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 100 W 0.28

MV 175 W 0.19

MV 250 W 0.36

MV 400 W 0.85

probe MH 400 W 2.23

>2800 K and ≤4500 K

>400 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 1000 W 0.00

probe MH 1000 W 0.17

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

>1000 W and ≤2000 W;

clear; enclosed 

probe MH 2000 W 0.01

TOTAL CSL 3 4.67
11-11

11.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis

The NPV calculation attempts to calculate the total monetary costs and benefits of the 

standard for all customers of HID lamp systems. This calculation relies primarily on two inputs: 

(1) the NES calculations described in the previous section, which are translated into a decrease 

(or in some cases increase) in operating costs; and (2) the increase (or in some cases decrease) in 

installed costs. 

In most cases the operating cost savings, installed costs increases, and NPV all trend 

toward zero over time, reflecting the impacts of discounting. 

NPV results are cumulative and shown as the discounted value of these savings in dollar 

terms. DOE used national averages for key inputs such as electricity pricing and sector-specific 

point values for operating hours in calculating operating cost savings and installed cost increases. 

Thus, the NPV results are discrete point values rather than a distribution of values as in the LCC 

and PBP analyses. 

The present value of increased total installed costs is the total installed cost increase (i.e., 

the difference between the standards case and base case in a given year), discounted to the 

present, and summed over the time period in which DOE evaluated the impact of standards (i.e., 

from the effective date of standards, 2017, to the end of life of the equipment shipped through 

2046). 

Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with higher-efficacy lamps purchased 

in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated total annual operating cost 

savings as the difference between total annual operating costs in the base case minus those in the 

standards case. Eq. 11.8 gives the total annual operating costs in each case. 

11.5.4 Net Present Value Results

Table 11.5.5 through Table 11.5.7 show the NPV results in tabular format for both 7- and 

3-percent discount rates. Energy savings do not necessarily correspond to NPV savings. In fact, 

this rule has predominantly negative NPVs, indicating that increases in the installed costs 

outweigh operating costs savings. This is due to the need to exchange many fixtures in the 

standards case after the rule goes into effect. When a customer can no longer buy a lamp due to a 

standard, they cannot operate a fixture anymore, which necessitates a new fixture purchase in the 

standards case. In the base case, the lamps are still available, so a lamp or lamp and ballast 

purchase will often suffice. 
11-12

Table 11.5.5 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046 for 

CSL 1

Candidate 

Standard 

Level

Representative Equipment 

Class

Representative Lamp 

Type

Net Present Value

billion 2012$ 

Roll-up Scenario

7-Percent

Discount Rate

3-Percent

Discount Rate

1 

≥1900 K and ≤2800 K;

≥50 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

HPS 70 W -1.79 -2.40

HPS 100 W -1.79 -2.45

HPS 250 W -2.58 -3.33

HPS 400 W -2.10 -2.62

HPS 1000 W -1.05 -1.36

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

≥50 W and ≤400 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 100 W -0.002 -0.002

MV 175 W 0.02 0.02

MV 250 W -0.01 -0.02

MV 400 W -0.01 -0.01

probe MH 400 W 0.00 0.00

>2800 K and ≤4500 K

>400 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 1000 W 0.00 0.00

probe MH 1000 W 0.00 0.00

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

>1000 W and ≤2000 W;

clear; enclosed 

probe MH 2000 W -0.08 -0.10

TOTAL CSL 1 -9.40 -12.26

Table 11.5.6 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046 for 

CSL 2

Candidate 

Standard 

Level

Representative Equipment 

Class

Representative Lamp 

Type

Net Present Value

billion 2012$ 

Roll-up Scenario

7-Percent

Discount Rate

3-Percent

Discount Rate

2 

≥1900 K and ≤2800 K;

≥50 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

HPS 70 W -1.79 -2.40

HPS 100 W -1.79 -2.45

HPS 250 W -2.58 -3.33

HPS 400 W -2.10 -2.62

HPS 1000 W -1.05 -1.36

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

≥50 W and ≤400 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 100 W -0.002 -0.002

MV 175 W 0.02 0.02

MV 250 W -0.73 -0.95

MV 400 W -0.96 -1.22

probe MH 400 W -0.40 -0.36

>2800 K and ≤4500 K

>400 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 1000 W 0.00 0.00

probe MH 1000 W -1.01 -1.20

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

>1000 W and ≤2000 W;

clear; enclosed 

probe MH 2000 W -0.08 -0.10

TOTAL CSL 2 -12.48 -15.96
11-13

Table 11.5.7 Cumulative Net Present Value for HID Lamps Purchased from 2017–2046 for 

CSL 3

Candidate 

Standard 

Level

Representative Equipment 

Class

Representative Lamp 

Type

Net Present Value

billion 2012$ 

Roll-up Scenario

7-Percent

Discount Rate

3-Percent

Discount Rate

3 

≥1900 K and ≤2800 K;

≥50 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

HPS 70 W -1.79 -2.40

HPS 100 W -1.79 -2.45

HPS 250 W -2.58 -3.33

HPS 400 W -2.10 -2.62

HPS 1000 W -1.05 -1.36

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

≥50 W and ≤400 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 100 W -0.29 -0.12

MV 175 W -0.35 -0.33

MV 250 W -0.81 -0.78

MV 400 W -1.60 -1.16

probe MH 400 W -0.51 1.55

>2800 K and ≤4500 K

>400 W and ≤1000 W;

clear; enclosed

MV 1000 W 0.00 0.00

probe MH 1000 W -1.01 -1.20

>2800 K and ≤4500 K;

>1000 W and ≤2000 W;

clear; enclosed 

probe MH 2000 W -0.08 -0.10

TOTAL CSL 3 -13.96 -14.30
11-14

REFERENCES

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2012 with Projections to 

2035. 2012. (Last accessed February 19, 2013.) 

<www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo12/index.cfm> 

2. U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy 

Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial and Industrial 

Equipment: Preliminary Technical Support Document: Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures. 2011. 

Washington, D.C. <www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2009-BT-STD0018-0021> 

3. U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy 

Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Final Rule Technical Support Document: 

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts. 2011. Washington, D.C. 

<www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016-0067>

4. Greening, L.A., D.L. Greene, and C. Difiglio. 2000. Energy Efficiency and Consumption–

The Rebound Effect: A Survey. Energy Policy. 28: pp. 389–401. 

5. Office of Management and Budget. Circular A-4. September 2003. Washington, D.C. 

<www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/regulatory_matters_pdf/a-4.pdf>