1 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govBUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAMEnergy Conservation StandardsNotice of Proposed Rulemakingfor Fluorescent Lamp BallastsTina Kaarsberg, PhDDepartment of EnergyEnergy Efficiency & Renewable Energyballasts.rulemaking@ee.doe.govMay 10, 20112 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov9:00 – 9:10 amWelcome, Introductions, Opening Statements9:10 – 10:00 amOverview, Statute, Context,Market and TechnologyAssessment, Screening Analysis10:00 – 10:45 amEngineering Analysis10:45 – 11:00 amBreak11:00 – 11:30 amEnergy Use, Markup Analysis,Life-Cycle Cost and PaybackPeriod Analysis11:30 am – 12:00 pmShipments, National Impact Analysis12:00 pm – 1:00 pmLunch1:00 – 1:30 pmManufacturer Impact Analysis1:30 – 2:00 pmUtility Impact Analysis, Employment Impact Analysis,Environmental Assessment,Regulatory Impact Analysis2:00 – 2:15 pmBreak2:15 – 2:45 pmProposed Standard2:45 – 3:00 pmClosing RemarksPublic Meeting Agenda3 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPurpose of the Public Meeting•Purpose– To invite comment on proposed energy conservation standard levels;– To present methodologies and characterize results of the rulemakinganalyses;– To discuss specific issues related to each analysis;– To seek input from interested parties on methodologies, assumptions,data sources, and results from the analyses; and– To describe next steps in the rulemaking.•Comments from Participants– Participants are invited to provide summary comments or statementsand raise additional issues for discussion.– NOPR comment period closesFriday,June 10, 2011.4 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssue for DiscussionIssue Box:DOE welcomes comments, data, and informationconcerning its NOPR for fluorescentlamp ballasts. Issues thatcorrespond to those raised in DOE’s published material will benumbered in accordance with that material. This presentationalso includes some new issuesnot specifically mentioned inthe published material, and those have been labeled as such.Whether invited by an issue box or not, comments arewelcome on any part of DOE’s analysis.Issue box numbering corresponds to the list of issues published at the end ofthe NOPR, available at:http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/pdfs/flballasts_nopr_fr_notice.pdf5 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•In all correspondence, include all of the following:– Energy Conservation Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts– Docket Number:EERE-2007–BT–STD–0016– Regulatory Identification Number (RIN):1904–AB50•Contact InformationComment period closes:Friday, June 10, 2011, midnight EDTPostal Mail:Ms. Brenda EdwardsU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies ProgramMailstop EE-2J1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.Washington, DC 20585-0121Courier:Ms. Brenda EdwardsU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies Program950 L’Enfant Plaza, S.W., 6thFloorWashington, DC 20024Telephone: (202) 586-2945DOE Seeks Comments on itsProposalEmail:ballasts.rulemaking@ee.doe.gov6 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPublic Meeting Agenda234Background and Legal Authority5Market & Tech; Screening; Engineering2Energy Use; Markup Analysis341Overview5Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact Analysis6MIA; NOPR Analyses7 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govAuthority and Rulemaking History ofFluorescent Lamp Ballasts•National Appliance Energy Conservation Amendments of 1988(NAECA 1988) amended the Energy Policy and Conservation Actof 1975 by:−Adding fluorescent lamp ballasts as covered products;−Requiring development of a test procedure;−Setting minimum efficiency standards; and−Requiring DOE to review those standards twice.•In September 2000, DOE published an energy conservationstandard final rule as the first revision of standards required bythe statute. 65 FR 56740.•The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005) mandated newenergy conservation standards for ballasts that operate “energysaver” lamps.8 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govActive Mode Test Procedure9 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFluorescent Lamp BallastsRulemaking History/ScheduleMilestoneDateFramework DocumentJanuary 14, 2008Notice of Public Meeting and Availability of the PreliminaryTechnical Support DocumentMarch 24, 2010Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR)April 11, 2011Final Rule (Consent Decree)June 2011Compliance Date (projected)June 20142007200820092010201120122013201420152016

F r a m e w o r k D o c u m e n t N O P M a n d P r e l i m . T S D

N O P R F i n a l R u l e C o m p l i a n c e D a t e10 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govThe Energy Policy andConservation Act (EPCA)FactorAnalysis1. Economic impact on consumers andmanufacturersLife-cycle cost analysisManufacturer impact analysis2. Lifetime operating cost savings Life-cycle cost analysis3. Total projected energy savings National impact analysis4. Impact on utility and performance Screening analysis;Engineering analysis5. Impact of any lessening ofcompetitionManufacturer impact analysis6. Need for national energyconservationNational impact analysis7. Other factors the Secretaryconsiders relevantEnvironmental assessment;Utility impact analysis;Employment impact analysis• EPCA directs DOE to considerseven factors when setting energyconservation standards.11 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProposed Energy ConservationStandard Equation• DOE is proposing that fluorescentlamp ballast manufacturers usethe following equation to determine whether their equipment meets(has BLE greater than or equal to) the proposed Trial StandardLevel 3 (TSL 3)BLE = Coefficient * ln(Total Lamp Arc Power) + Constant75.080.085.090.095.0100.00.0 50.0 100.0 150.012 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProposed Energy ConservationStandards• DOE is proposing TSL 3 for fluorescent lamp ballasts.Product ClassEquationIS and RS ballasts that operate4-foot MBP lamps8-foot slimline lamps1.32 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 86.11PS ballasts that operate4-foot MBP lamps4-foot MiniBP SO lamps4-foot MiniBP HO lamps1.79 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 83.33IS and RS ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps1.49 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 84.32PS ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps1.46 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 82.63Ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps in coldtemperature outdoor signs1.49 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 81.3413 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProposed Energy ConservationStandards: ExamplesStarting MethodLamp Type# of LampsBallastFactorArc Power(typical)StandardInstant Start (IS) F32T8 Two 0.84 48.7 91.2IS F32T8 Four 0.88 102.1 92.2IS F32T8 (res) Two 0.87 50.3 91.3IS F96T8 Two 0.86 98.2 92.2Programmed Start (PS) F32T8 Two 0.91 52.6 90.4PS F32T8 Four 0.91 105.6 91.7PS F28T5 Two 1.08 59.9 90.7PS F54T5 Two 0.95 101.8 91.6IS F96T8HO Two 0.78 133.6 91.6Rapid Start (RS) F96T12HO Four 0.62 249.8 89.614 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govSummary of Proposed Rule Impacts•Energy– 12% average energy efficiency improvement in fluorescent ballasts(baseline compared to proposed standard).– Cumulative energy savings (over 2014 - 2043)– Saves 3.7- 6.3 quadrillion Btus (quads)– Avoids need for 4.4 – 7.2 GW (gigawatt) new generating capacity•Cost Savings– Net Present Value (NPV), discount rate (DR)– Cumulative NPV = $11.4 billion (7% DR), $24.7 billion (3% DR)Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario– Cumulative NPV = $8.13 billion (7% DR), $16.5 billion (3% DR)Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario15 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govOpening Remarks and Comments•Opening RemarksAt this time, DOE welcomes opening remarks from interested partieson the NOPR for fluorescent lamp ballasts.Issue 14:DOE specifically invites comment on the proposedstandard levels for fluorescent lamp ballasts.Issue 2:DOE seeks comments on the appropriateness ofestablishing efficiency standards using an equation dependenton lamp-arc power.16 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPublic Meeting Agenda234Background and Legal Authority5Market & Tech; Screening; Engineering2Energy Use; Markup Analysis341Overview5Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact Analysis6MIA; NOPR Analyses17 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisNOPRRulemaking Stage18 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Fluorescent lamp ballastmeans a device which is used tostart and operate fluorescentlamps by providing a startingvoltage and current and limiting the current during normaloperation. 42 U.S.C. 6291(29)(a)•Fluorescent lamp ballasts thatare currently subject tostandards (in terms of BEF) include ballasts that operate:Number of LampsLamp Type1 or 2F40T121 or 2F34T122F96T122F96T12/ES2F96T12HO2F96T12HO/ESScope of Coverage: Current19 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE considered additional fluorescent lamp ballasts forcoverage according to thedirective in 42 U.S.C.6295(g)(7)(B).•DOE used the following criteria when determining whichadditional ballasts to include in coverage:– Potential for significant energy savings– Technological feasibility– Economic justificationScope of Coverage: Criteria20 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE’s proposed scope of coverage includes ballasts thatoperate:– 4-foot medium bipin (MBP) lamps in the commercial sector– 4-foot MBP lamps in the residential sector– 4-foot miniature bipin (MiniBP) standard output (SO) lamps– 4-foot MiniBP high output (HO) lamps– 8-foot single pin (SP) slimline lamps– 8-foot recessed double contact (RDC) HO lamps– 8-foot RDC HO lamps in cold temperature outdoor signs•DOE is not proposing to includeadditional dimming ballastsin the scope of coverage.Scope of Coverage: Proposed21 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Issue−Magnetic ballasts are needed in certain applications that aresensitive to electromagnetic interference (EMI) but would beeliminated by the proposed standards.−Methods to reduce EMI:−inline filters−special lenses−grounding cages−fixture design−other external filters−Unable to determine whether these methods would be sufficient.•Proposal−Because DOE is unable to determine whether these methods wouldbe sufficient, DOE proposes to exempt T8 magnetic ballasts−Designed and labeled for use in EMI-sensitive environments−Shipped in packages containing not more than 10 ballastsScope of Coverage: Exemption forEMI-Sensitive Applications22 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssue for DiscussionIssue 1:DOE invites comment on the appropriateness ofcreating an exemption for T8 magnetic ballasts as asolution tothe problems caused by excessive EMI from electronic ballastsin EMI sensitive environments.23 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE establishes separate energy conservation standards foreach product class.•DOE divides covered product into classes by:– the type (gas, electric) of energy used;– the capacity of the equipment; and– any other performance-related features that require different standardlevels, such as features affecting consumer utility.(42 USC 6295(q))Product Classes: Criteria24 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•In general, as lamp arc power increases, BLE increases.– Fixed losses of a ballast become proportionally less significant at higherlamp arc power as I2R losses begin to dominate.•DOE empirically developed a relationship between BLE and thenatural logarithm of lamp arc power.•Using an equation has several benefits over the preliminaryanalysis approach for determining product classes– Simplifies the product class structure– Reduces the amount of scaling requiredProduct Classes: Power-EfficiencyRelationshipLamp ArcPowerPowerEfficiencyRelationship~BLE25 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Establish a separate product class for PS ballasts versus ISand RS ballasts:Impact on Efficiency• PS ballasts have lower BLEs than IS and RS ballasts due toelectrode heating.Consumer Utility• Occupancy sensors are predominantly used with PS ballastsrather than IS or RS ballasts.• IS ballasts are common replacements for RS ballasts.Product Classes:PS Starting Method26 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Establish a separate product class for ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps:Impact on Efficiency• Compared to 8-foot slimline ballasts, DOE found that 8-foot HOballasts exhibited lower BLEs although they at operated higherlamp power.Consumer Utility• “Lumen package” refers to the quantity of light provided by alamp-and-ballast system.• Consumers use systems with different lumen packages fordifferent applications: high output systems may be used in highceiling or outdoor applications.Product Classes:8-foot HO Ballasts27 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Establish a separate product class for ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps in cold temperature outdoor signs:Impact on Efficiency• Sign ballasts have lower BLEs than comparable ballasts thatoperate 8-foot HO lamps.Consumer Utility• Regular 8-foot HO ballasts cannot always serve as substitutesfor sign ballasts due to their lack of moisture seals and morelimited load specifications.Product Classes:Sign Ballasts28 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNOPR Product ClassesDescriptionProduct Class NumberIS and RS ballasts that operate4-foot MBP lamps*8-foot slimline lamps1PS ballasts that operate4-foot MBP lamps*4-foot MiniBP SO lamps4-foot MiniBP HO lamps2IS and RS ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps3PS ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps4Ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps in coldtemperature outdoor signs5*Includes both commercial and residential ballasts29 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 3:DOE seeks comment on the appropriateness ofcombining several product classes from the preliminary TSD.In particular, DOE requestsfeedback on the decision toinclude several IS and RS ballasts (IS and RS ballasts thatoperate 4-foot MBP and 8-foot slimline lamps) and PS ballastsin the same product class (PS ballasts that operate 4-foot MBPand 4-foot T5 lamps).Issue 2:DOE seeks comments on the appropriateness ofestablishing efficiency standards using an equation dependenton lamp-arc power.30 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 5:DOE seeks comment on the appropriateness ofestablishing a separate product class for ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps.Issue 4:DOEseeks comments on the appropriateness ofincluding residential ballasts inthe same product class asthose that operate inthe commercial sector.31 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNOPR Rulemaking StageFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysis32 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govÕChoose product classes and ballast types to be analyzed inthe engineering and life-cycle cost analysis.ÕDefine characteristics of baseline models in eachrepresentative product class.ÕDevelop efficiency levels (ELs) that span the range ofefficiency from baseline to maximum technologicallyfeasible.ÕDetermine manufacturer selling prices (MSP) for baselineballasts and their higher BLE substitutes.ÕScale results to product classes not analyzed.ChooseRepresentativeProduct ClassesScale to ProductClasses NotAnalyzedDefine BaselineModelsDevelop MSPsEngineering Analysis:MethodologyDevelopEfficiency Levels33 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE chose representative product classes and ballast types.Representative Product Classes andBallast TypesPS Product ClassSign BallastProduct ClassTwo-lamp 4-ft MBP (Comm.)Two-lamp 4-ft MBP (Comm.)Two-lamp 4-ft MBP (Res.)Two-lamp 4-ft MBP (Res.)Four-lamp 4-ft MBP (Comm.)Four-lamp 4-ft MBP (Comm.)Two-lamp 8-ft SlimlineTwo-lamp 8-ft SlimlineTwo-lamp 8-ft HOTwo-lamp 8-ft HOTwo-lamp 4-ft MBPTwo-lamp 4-ft MBPFour-lamp 4-ft MBPFour-lamp 4-ft MBPTwo-lamp 4-ft T5 SOTwo-lamp 4-ft T5 SOTwo-lamp 4-ft T5 HOTwo-lamp 4-ft T5 HO4-lamp 8-ft HO4-lamp 8-ft HOIS and RSProduct Class8-ft HO IS andRS ProductClass34 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Abaselineballast just meets the existing energyconservation standard or represents themost common,lowest BLE ballastfor that ballast type.•DOE selected multiple baseline ballastsfor certainballast types toensure consideration of theirassociated consumer economics.– For example, for ballasts that operate two 4-foot MBPlamps, DOE selected two baselines:T12, RS ballastsandT8, IS ballasts.Baseline ModelsChooseRepresentativeProduct ClassesScale to ProductClasses NotAnalyzedDefine BaselineModelsDevelop MSPsDevelopEfficiency Levels35 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• DOE plotted BLE versus total lamp arc power forboth standard- and high-efficiency product lines frommultiple manufacturers.• After regression analysis, DOE found that a naturallogarithm relationship best modeled the observedtrend between total lamp arc power and BLE.• DOE plotted curves that aligned with natural divisionsin BLE in the data using the following equation:Selection of Efficiency LevelsBLE = coefficient * ln (total lamp arc power) + constantChooseRepresentativeProduct ClassesScale to ProductClasses NotAnalyzedDefine BaselineModelsDevelop MSPsDevelopEfficiency Levels36 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEfficiency Levels:IS and RS Product Class75.080.085.090.095.0100.00.0 50.0 100.0 150.02L4ftMBP4L4ftMBPResidential8ftSlimlineAveragemeasuredlamparcpower(W)BLE(%)EL3EL2EL137 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEfficiency Levels:PS Product Class80.085.090.095.0100.00.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.02L4ftMBP4L4ftMBP2LT5SO2LT5HOAveragemeasuredlamparcpower(W)BLE(%)EL3EL2EL138 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Tested multiple manufacturers, multiple product lines•Sample Size– Tested 5 samples for each representative unit•All 5 samples in a given categorytested at the same laboratory•EL equations initially developedbased on average tested BLE•EL equation adjusted based on measurement variation analysis– 0.8% reduction for measurement variation overall• 0.6% reduction for lab to lab variation• 0.2% reduction for compliance equationEfficiency Levels: Testing39 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Lab to lab variation affects reported efficiency:– The same set of ballast samples tested at two different laboratories canhave two different average BLEs.– 0.6 percent average difference in efficiency between data collected atthe two laboratories used by DOEMeasurement Variation: Lab to Lab40 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Manufacturing Variation– Representative unit purchasing• 3 samples in early 2009• 2 samples in late 2010•Compliance requirementsaffect reported efficiency:– Manufacturers must report the lower of either the sample average or thevalue calculated by an equation intended to account for variation withinthe sample set.– Reported value is on average 0.2 percent less than the average ofsamples included in testing.Measurement Variation: Samplingand Compliance Equation41 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRepresentative UnitsELLampTypeStartingMethodBallast InputPowerBFBLEMinimum BLERequirementBaselineT12RS60.70.8078.3%--EL1/BaselineT8IS61.10.9085.8%84.4%EL2T8IS58.10.9090.2%89.0%EL3T8IS52.80.8492.2%91.2%• IS and RS ballasts that operate two 4-foot MBP lamps:42 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEfficiency LevelsRepresentative ProductClassEfficiencyLevelBLEIS and RS ballasts thatoperate4-foot MBP lamps8-foot slimline lampsEL1 2.98 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 72.61EL2 2.48 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 79.16EL3 1.32 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 86.11PS ballasts that operate4-foot MBP lamps4-foot MiniBP SO lamps4-foot MiniBP HO lampsEL1 2.48 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 77.87EL2 2.48 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 78.86EL31.79 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 83.33IS and RS ballasts thatoperate8-foot HO lampsEL1 1.49 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 72.22EL2 1.49 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 83.33EL3 1.49 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 84.32Ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps in coldtemperature outdoor signsEL1 1.49 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 81.3443 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssue for DiscussionIssue 7:DOE requestscomment on the appropriateness of the efficiencylevels DOE considered for fluorescent ballasts.44 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE has determined the highestefficiency levels are themaximum technologically feasiblefor a sufficient diversity ofproducts (spanning several ballastfactors, number of lampsper ballast, and types of lamps operated).•However, DOE is still considering whether an even higherefficiency level is technologically feasible and presentsanalysis of this higher EL in the TSD.Max-Tech Levels45 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govAdvanced Technology Scenario75.080.085.090.095.0100.00.0 50.0 100.0 150.02L4ftMBP4L4ftMBPResidential8ftSlimlineAveragemeasuredlamparcpower(W)BLE(%)AdvancedTechScenarioEL3EL2EL146 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssue for DiscussionIssue 8:DOE requests comment onthe selection of the maximumtechnologically feasible level and whether itis technologically feasible to attainthese higher efficiencies for the full range of instant start (IS) ballasts.Specifically, DOE seeks quantitative information regarding the potential changein efficiency, the design options employed, and the associated change in cost.Any design option that DOE considers to improve efficiency must meet the fourcriteria outlined in the screening analysis:(1) technological feasibility;(2) practicability to manufacture, install, and service;(3) adverse impacts on product or equipment utility to consumers oravailability; and(4) adverse impacts on health or safety.DOE also requests comments on any technological barriers to an improvementin efficiency above TSL 3 for all or certain types of ballasts.47 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE developed prices using four different sources:– Teardown data– Distributor list prices (blue book)– Retail prices from online distributors– Aggregated manufacturer-supplied pricesPricesChooseRepresentativeProduct ClassesScale to ProductClasses NotAnalyzedDefine BaselineModelsDevelop MSPsDevelopEfficiency Levels6.007.008.009.0010.0011.0012.0013.00

MSP ($)2‐lampMBPISandRSBlueBookManufacturerTeardownFinal48 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• The following table shows the MSP associated with each EL forballasts that operate two-lamp 4-foot MBP lamps:Manufacturer Selling Price:Two 4-foot MBP LampsELLampTypeBFBEMSP($2009)BaselineT120.8078.3%$8.41EL1/BaselineT80.9085.8%$6.94EL2T80.9090.2%$8.85EL3T80.8492.2%$9.27Issue 6:DOE requests comments onthe method used to calculatemanufacturer selling prices.49 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE analyzed test data to determine therelationship between ballasts that have differentstarting methods.•DOE focused its effort on extensive test data forballasts that operate 4-foot MBP lamps•DOE found this average ISto PS reduction to be2% and therefore applied this scaling factor tothe 8-foot HO IS and RS ELs to calculate the 8-foot HO PS ELs.Scaling ELs: 8-foot HO PSChooseRepresentativeProduct ClassesScale to ProductClasses NotAnalyzedDefine BaselineModelsDevelop MSPsDevelopEfficiency Levels50 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govTrial Standard LevelsRepresentative Product ClassTSL 1TSL 2TSL 3IS and RS ballasts that operate4-foot MBP lamps8-foot slimline lampsEL1 EL2 EL3PS ballasts that operate4-foot MBP lamps4-foot MiniBP SO lamps4-foot MiniBP HO lampsEL1 EL2 EL3IS and RS ballasts that operate8-foot HO lampsEL1 EL2 EL3Ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps in coldtemperature outdoor signsEL1 EL1 EL151 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPublic Meeting Agenda234Background and Legal Authority5Market & Tech; Screening; Engineering2Energy Use; Markup Analysis341Overview5Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact Analysis6MIA; NOPR Analyses52 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisNOPRRulemaking Stage53 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Annual energy consumption (kWh)= system input powerx annual operating hours• DOE updated annual operating hours with data from DOEsurveys (LMC, CBECS, MECS, RECS).• DOE’s assumed annual operating hours capture variationacross census divisions and large States, building types, andlighting applications.Energy Use CalculationSectorAverage AnnualOperation(hrs/yr)Commercial3,886Commercial (PS)*2,720Industrial4,747Residential789* PS ballasts operating 4-foot MBP lamps on occupancy sensors.54 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• DOE developed markups to relate manufacturer selling prices (MSP) toend-user ballast prices.• DOE estimated percentage of shipments for distribution channels(columns 1, 2 & 3), MSPs, and used current company balance sheet data(SEC form 10-K) for markups analysis.• DOE added a (home improvement) retailer distribution channel (column3) and investigated actual markups for NOPR.Markups AnalysisVia OEMsVia WholesalersVia RetailersBaselineIncrementalBaselineIncrementalBaselineIncrementalOEM FixtureManufacturer1.501.17------1.501.17ElectricalWholesaler1.231.051.231.05------Home ImprovementRetailer------------1.511.15Contractor1.131.131.131.13------Sales Tax1.071.071.07Estimated %of Shipments6337100Weighted OverallBaseline Markup1.962.43Weighted OverallIncremental Markup1.411.4355 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPublic Meeting Agenda234Background and Legal Authority5Market & Tech; Screening; Engineering2Energy Use; Markup Analysis341Overview5Life-Cycle Cost And Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact Analysis6MIA; NOPR Analyses56 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisNOPRRulemaking Stage57 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Economic evaluation from the end-user perspective.• Results are expressed as LCC savings (baseline minus thestandard level).• Simple payback period (PBP) is also calculated and reported inthis analysis.Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Period AnalysisCombineChangesin CostsLCC ResultsFirst Cost(End-User Price + Installation Cost)Operating ExpensesConvert toPresentValue58 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• In general, LCC savings were strongly positive at TSL3.• Exceptions – where T8 ELs compared to T8 baseline EL werenegative:– PC1 (two 4-foot MBP lamps, residential)– PC3 (two 8-foot HO lamps)• Positive LCC savings were typically unchanged byuncertainty/variation in inputs such as:– operating hours– electricity prices– discount rates– sales tax rates– disposal costsLCC-PBP Analysis Results59 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPublic Meeting Agenda234Background and Legal Authority5Market & Tech; Screening; Engineering2Energy Use; Markup Analysis341Overview5Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact Analysis6MIA; NOPR Analyses60 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisNOPRRulemaking Stage61 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Historical NEMA shipments: estimated using U.S. CensusCurrent Industrial Reports (CIR) (1990-2005).– CIR remains the primary historical shipments data source.– Adjusted for non-NEMA shipments in prelim and NOPR analyses.• Projected shipments: lifetime and growth assumptionsproduced an oscillating pattern in future shipments.– Retained average ballast lifetimes for NOPR and used a Weibulldistribution for lifetimes.– For NOPR, considered historical decline in magnetic ballastshipments in projections for electronic ballasts (4-foot MBP lamps).– Retained existing and emerging technology scenarios for NOPR.Shipments Analysis-162 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govShipments Analysis-2‐50100150200250

Shipments in millionsPC1ReplacementPC1NewconstructionShipments for PC1—IS and RSBallasts That Operate 4-Foot MBPand 8-Foot Slimline Lamps (ExistingTechnologies Scenario)• Shipments by “life event”: replacement shipments assumedgreater than new construction/retrofit shipments.– For NOPR, literature (e.g.,AEO) from recent years suggests onlymodest floor space growth and retrofit rates, supporting DOE’sassumption that replacements dominate shipments.‐12345678

Shipments in millionsPC5ReplacementPC5NewconstructionShipments for PC 5—ISand RS Sign BallastsThat Operate 8-FootRDC HO Lamps (ExistingTechnologies Scenario)63 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Sign ballasts: Prelim analysis used indoor ballast methodology,i.e., shipments proportional to floor space growth and retrofitrates, resulting in unrealisticallyhigh ballast shipment forecasts.– For NOPR, included electronic designs in base case substitutions.– Did not assume new shipments were proportional to floorspacegrowth and assumed lower retrofit rates, thus reducing growth rateand shipments for NOPR.– Added emerging technology scenario for NOPR to account forlimited LED penetration in backlighting applications.Shipments Analysis-364 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govShipments Base Case Existing Tech‐20,000,00040,000,00060,000,00080,000,000100,000,000120,000,000

Shipments2 x T5 SO2x4-ft MBP IS-RS (com)4x4-ft MBP IS-RS2x4-ft MBP IS-RS (res)2 x T5 HO65 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govShipments Base Case Emerging Tech‐20,000,00040,000,00060,000,00080,000,000100,000,000120,000,000

Shipments2x4-ft MBP IS-RS (res)2x4-ft MBP IS-RS (com)2 x T5 HO4x4-ft MBP IS-RS2 x T5 SO66 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govBase CaseExisting Tech(upper bound)Emerging Tech(lower bound)Standards CaseShift(upper bound)Roll-Up(lower bound)• National energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV)calculated for period from 2014-2043.National Impacts Analysis (NIA)ShipmentsModelNationalEnergySavingsNationalEconomicImpactsLCCAnalysisResults andOther InputsNationalEnergy Savings(Quads)NationalNet Present Value($ billions)at 3% and 7% DR67 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govTSL3• National energy savings increase with efficiency of installed stock.– Cumulative NES = 6.25 quads• Net present value rises and then falls (discounting).– Varies by product class, EL, scenario.– Cumulative NPV = $11.4 billion (7% DR), $24.7 billion (3% DR)NIA Results: Existing Tech, Shift(100)‐100200300400500600700

2009 $ in millionsNetPresentValueat7%discountNPVDiscountedoperatingcostschangeDiscountedinstalledcostschange‐0.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.40

Energy savings, quadsNationalEnergySavings68 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNIA Results: Emerging Tech, Roll Up(100)‐100200300400500600700

2009 $ in millionsNetPresentValueat7%discountNPVDiscountedoperatingcostschangeDiscountedinstalledcostschangeTSL3• National energy savings increase with efficiency of installed stock.– Cumulative NES = 3.70 quads• Net present value rises and then falls (discounting).– Varies by product class, EL, scenario.– Cumulative NPV = $8.13 billion (7% DR), $16.5 billion (3% DR)‐0.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.40

Energy savings, quadsNationalEnergySavings69 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPublic Meeting Agenda234Background and Legal Authority5Market & Tech; Screening; Engineering2Energy Use; Markup Analysis341Overview5Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact Analysis6MIA; NOPR Analyses70 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisNOPRRulemaking Stage71 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Purpose– To assess the impacts of standards on manufacturers;– To identify and estimate impacts on manufacturer sub-groups that maybe more severely affected than the industry as a whole; and– To examine the direct employment impacts, manufacturing capacity,and the cumulative regulatory impact on the industry.•Methodology– Analyze industry cash flow and industry net present value (INPV)through use of the Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM); and– Interview manufacturers to refine inputs to the GRIM, develop subgroup analyses, and address qualitative issues.Manufacturer Impact Analysis (MIA)72 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIndustryprofileDevelopstraw-manGRIM*DevelopinterviewguideInterviews &industry-wide/subgroupanalysesAssess directemployment,manufacturingcapacity, andcumulative burdenFinalizeMIA resultsfor NOPRPhase 2* Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM)Phase 3Phase 1Manufacturer Impact Analysis:Overview73 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Impacts on Profits– Higher standards may eliminate manufacturers’ ability to offer coveredproducts at two compliant efficiency levels (e.g. baseline and highefficiency), which could lower profit margins.•Market Impact and Opportunity Cost of Investments– With mature technologies such as fluorescent ballasts, new standardsmay force investment in a low-growth or even shrinking market and mayhasten consumers’ switch to emerging technologies– Manufacturers’ resources for the development of new productsdecrease when they are deployed to redesign mature products becauseof new standards.•Regulatory Impact– Manufacturers are concerned with the number of ongoing Federallighting standards•Component Shortage– Electronic component suppliersscaled back production during therecent recession, but have not increased production since demand hasrecoveredManufacturer Impact Analysis:Manufacturer Key Issues74 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE modeled eight different scenarios representing all combinations of:– Two markup scenarios (preservation of operating profit markup and two-tier markup)– Two technology scenarios (existing technologies and emerging technologies)– Two shipment scenarios (roll-up and shift)•Upper Bound Scenario (Lowest Impacts)- Preservation of Operating ProfitMarkup, Existing Technologies, and Shift Shipments– Manufacturers maintain same level of operating profits (earnings before interest and taxes inabsolute terms) in the standards case as the base case– Shipments are unaffected by emerging technologies– Efficiency-conscious consumers ator above the new standard level may seek to shift to ahigher efficiency level•Lower Bound Scenario (Highest Impacts) - Two-Tier Markup, EmergingTechnologies, and Roll-Up Shipments– Higher energy conservation standards result inlower manufacturer markups for products thatearn a premium in the base case– Ballasts lose market share to emerging technologies such as LEDs over the analysis period– Only consumer purchases below the new standard level are affected by the standard.Manufacturer Impact Analysis:Scenarios Analyzed75 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•Preservation of OperatingProfit Markup, ExistingTechnologies, and Shift Shipment Scenario (Upper Bound)•Two-Tier Markup, Emerging Technologies, and Roll-UpShipment Scenario (Lower Bound)Manufacturer Impact Analysis:INPV ResultsUnits Base CaseTrial Standard Level12 3INPV (2009$ millions) 1,241 1,221 1,189 1,145Change in INPV(2009$ millions) - (19.4) (51.6) (95.3)(%) - -1.6% -4.2% -7.7%Units Base CaseTrial Standard Level12 3INPV (2009$ millions) 853 740 635 557Change in INPV(2009$ millions) - (112.7) (217.9) (296.2)(%) - -13.2% -25.5% -34.7%76 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE identified several domesticsmall business manufacturersof fluorescent lamp ballasts– Small manufacturers are able to compete due to the fragmented nature ofthe fixture industry– Ballast production is almost exclusively abroad, even for smallmanufacturers– Small ballast manufacturers typically offer a wide variety of lightingproducts and do not focus exclusively on fluorescent lamp ballasts– Small businesses lack the scale to meet the extensive productdevelopment, testing, and certification requirements needed for certainstandard levels•With a new standard, those small businesses with in-housedesign and production may consolidate and reduce the numberof product lines they offer.Manufacturer Impact Analysis:Small Business Impacts77 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 12:DOE requests comment on the potential impacts ofamended standards on the small fluorescent lamp ballastmanufacturers.Issue 11:DOE requests comment the methodology andinputs used for the manufacturerimpact analysis—specifically,DOE’s assumptions regarding markups, capital costs, andconversion costs.78 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Subgroups were identified by interested parties as potentiallymore sensitive to economic impacts of new standard.• DOE examined three consumer subgroups (input varied):– Low-income consumers (fractionally higher electricity price)– Institutions of religious worship (reduced operating hours)– Institutions that serve low-income populations (higher discount rate)• Results consistent with the main LCC-PBP analysis.– Robust LCC savings resistant to variation in inputs.LCC Subgroup Analysis79 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Increased electric efficiencyÆreduced electricity demand.Utility Impact AnalysisTrialStandardLevelCumulative reduction in electric generating capacity(gigawatts)Existing Technologies,ShiftEmerging Technologies,Roll-up14.171.5125.202.9937.224.3780 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEmployment Analysis• DOE modeled the indirect effects of higher efficiency productson national employment.AnalysisPeriodYearTrialStandardLevelNet national change in jobs(thousands)Existing Technologies,ShiftEmerging Technologies,Roll-up2020112.63.6722.892.5933.633.312043112431.8263.237.1389.551.181 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov• Reduced energy demandÆreduced air pollutant emissions.Environmental Impact AnalysisTrialStandardLevelCumulative reduction inemissions (2014 through 2043)Existing Technologies,ShiftEmerging Technologies,Roll-upCO2(MMt)NOX(kt)Hg(t)CO2(MMt)NOX(kt)Hg(t)170260.9614110.20287321.2027220.403121441.6740320.5982 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProposed Energy ConservationStandards – TSL 3DescriptionRepresentativeBLEEquationIS and RS ballasts that operatetwo 4-foot MBP lampsfour 4-foot MBP lampstwo 8-foot slimline lampstwo 4-foot MBP lamps in theresidential sector91.2%92.2%92.2%92.3%1.32 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 86.11PS ballasts that operatetwo 4-foot MBP lampsfour 4-foot MBP lampstwo 4-foot T5 SO lampstwo 4-foot T5 HO lamps90.4%91.7%90.7%91.6%1.79 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 83.33IS and RS ballasts that operatetwo 8-foot T8 HO lamps91.6%1.49 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 84.32PS ballasts that operate8-foot HO lamps89.8%1.46 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 82.63Ballasts that operatefour 8-foot HO lampsin coldtemperature outdoor signs89.6%1.49 * ln(total lamp arc power) + 81.3483 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIn all correspondence, include all of the following:– Energy Conservation Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts– Docket NumberEERE-2007–BT–STD–0016– Regulatory Identification Number (RIN)1904–AB50Email:ballasts.rulemaking@ee.doe.govComment period closes:Friday, June 10, 2011, midnight EDTDOE Seeks Comments on its ProposalPostal Mail:Ms. Brenda EdwardsU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies ProgramMailstop EE-2J1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.Washington, DC 20585-0121Courier:Ms. Brenda EdwardsU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies Program950 L’Enfant Plaza, S.W., 6thFloorWashington, DC 20024Telephone: (202) 586-2945DOE Seeks Comments on itsProposal