Technical Support Document (TSD) for Emissions Inventories for the State Implementation PlanRevision: NOx Vehicle Emission BudgetRevisions Based onMOVES 2010a

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, P A 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

Submittedbythe Bureau ofAir Quality Pennsylvania Department ofEnvironmental Protection

TSD Prepared March 2014 by Jessica 

### L. Fry Office ofAirMonitoring and Analysis, 3AP40 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 3 1650 Arch Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103

ReviewedbyAlice H. Chow, Associate Director Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis (3AP40)

### I. Introduction

The purpose ofthis document is to provide a technical summary ofthe Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review ofthe emissions inventories submitted withthe State Implementation Plan (SIP) Revision: NOx Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based onMOVES 2010afor Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE) 1997 EightHour Ozone Maintenance Plan submitted by the PennsylvaniaDepartment of Environmental Protection (PADEP). The ABE Nonattainment Area consists ofCarbon, Lehigh, and Northampton counties in Pennsylvania (PA). PADEP is updating theirNOx
motor vehicle emissions budgets submitted intheir 1997 Eight-hour Ozone SIP for t4e ABE Area for the years 2009 and 2018 using MOVES2010a and subsequently reviewing and updating (ifneeded) the NOx emissions inventories for point, nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad sources. Emission inventories in the ABE Area SIP revision are used to document that the SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when previous onroad mobile emissions inventories are replaced with MOVES2010a inventories. The plan should also demonstrate that growth and control strategy assumptions for point, nonpoint, and nonroad mobile sources continue to be valid. This review is to confirm that any minor updates have not changed the overall conclusions ofthe SIP. Any questions pertaining to this technical summary should be directed to Alice Chow, Associate Director, Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis, at 215-814-2144 orvia email at chow.alice@epa.gov.



### II 2009 and 2018 Emissions Inventories

Inthe ABE Area SIP revision, emissions inventories are used to support the States claim thatthe area is continuing to attain the 1997 eight-hour ozone standard as set forth inthe SIP whenusing MOVES 2010afor the onroadmobile emissions inventory. In orderto do this, the state should reviewthe point, nonpoint, and nonroad NOx emissions inventories submitted with the SIP for the interim (2009) and attainment (2018) years and determine ifchanges in growth and control strategy assumptions affectthe conclusion that the area will remain in compliance withthe 1997 eight-hour ozone standard.

In the ABE Area SIP revision, PADEP analyzed the NOx point source emissions estimates for 2009 and 2018 submitted withthe Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS ABE Area SIP. PADEP has resubmitted point source emissions inventories for 2009 and 2018. For the 2009 point source inventory, PADEP submitted actual2009 emissions from individual facilities inthe area. The emissions were submitted intons/year and tons/day. Forthe 2018 projected inventories PADEP used information developed for the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort and did a straight-line interpolation between the 2007 MARAMAbaseline inventory and the 2020 MARAMAprojected year inventory. Itwas concludedthat the emissions had been overestimated in the SIP and thatthe area will continue to be in attainment withthe new emission estimates. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.Pennsylvania conducted an analysis ofthe NOx emissions estimates for nonpoint

sources submitted for 2009 and 2018 with the 1997 ozone NAAQS ABE Area SIP to determine ifthe nonpoint NOx emissions inventory needed to be updated for this revision. Forthe 2009 nonpoint source emissions Pennsylvania compared U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau ofCensus, and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department ofEnergy actual growth from 2002-2009 to the growth estimates used in the ABE Area SIP. Pennsylvania concluded that updated growth factors for fuel use show that growth was over-predicted inthe original maintenance plan andtherefore the

non point emissions are notbeing updated. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.

The nonroad emissions inventory estimates for NOx submitted for 2009 and 2018 in the ABE Area SIP were calculated using USEPA'sNONROAD2005 Model. Pennsylvania compared growth estimates used in the NONROAD2005 to the growth estimates in the currentNONROAD2008a. These comparisons along with fleet turnover and the effects ofthe recession led Pennsylvaniato the conclusionthatthe general downward trend inNOx emissions in this sector supports the conclusionthat the area will continue to maintain compliance withthe eight-hour ozone standard and therefore no revisions were made. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.

In the ABEArea SIP revision, onroad emissions were estimated using the MOVES201 Oa model by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., who is a consultant to the Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation (PennDOT). PADEP revised the 2004 and 2009 onroad NOx emissions inventories and the 2018 projection inventory for the Reading Area SIP revision. Pennsylvania used the same 

### StatisticalEvaluation of Projected Traffic method for forecasting traffic growth or vehicle miles travelled. New input files for use in MOVES 2010awere developed using the local data from PennDOT, with some inputs being developed by the software PPSUITE, which is a tool for estimating speeds and processing emissions rates based upon acceptedtransportation engineering methodologies. Mobile emissions values were given in units oftons per summer day. OAMA staffreviewed the emissions and believes them to be reasonable.·. ·