P. 1



# OAR Box 1865 Prepped byCharmelle Mathews



# Document

Number: 

# 111 ) IV-K-(B)- 6

Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 7

Printed 12/3/20083:22:17

PM Sheet 111 of 198P. 2



### * 

# ENERG Y AN D ENVIRONMENTA

L ANALYSIS , INC . IV-K-(B)- 6 165 5 NORT HFOR T MYE RDRIV E ARLINGTON

, VIRGINI A 2220 9 703/528-190 0



### Septembe r 30 , 198 6

Mr
. Rober t Pahel-Shor t Economi c Analysi s Branc h(MD-12 ) U.S
. Environmenta l Protectio n Agenc y Researc hTriangl e Park , N.C
. 2771 1 Subject : EPAContrac t No
. 68-02-4202 , Wor k Assignmen t No
. 1 5

IFCA MRun s
Dea r Robert :

EE Aha s run IFCA

Mthi s mont hwit hfou r regulatoryscenario s and two ne wset s o f industria l fue l pric e forecasts

. Th e fou r regulatory scenario s ar e summarize d i n Table s 1 and 2 ; i t wa s als o you r assumption s that :

• Th e curren t NSP S fo r oil-fire d boiler s i s no t applicabl e becaus e ther e ar e no t larg e (>25 0 MMBtu/hr ) fire d erecte d ne w oil-fire d boiler s i n IFCA M

• N0 X

### SIP's , the curren t N0 X

### NSP S and the propose d N0 X

### NSP S hav e al l bee n ignored

. Th e two ne windustria l fue l pric e forecast s are :

• Th e ne w198 6 EE Ahighoi l prices , non-carriag e marke t natura l ga s price s and revise d 198 6 IC F industria l coa l pric e projection s

• Th e ne w198 6 EE Alowoi l prices , non-carriag e rigi d marke t natura l ga s price s and revise d 198 6 IC F industria l coa l pric e projections

. Ther e i s n o demand fo r coa l i n ne wlarg e industria l boiler s i n an y o f thes e eigh t Septembe r 198 6 IFCA Mruns . Afewo f the change s i n assumption s hav e mad e residua l fue l oi l a relativel yles s expensiv e optio n tha n coal

. Fo r example :

• Coa l becam e mor e expensiv e whe n w e adde d mechanica l collecto r cost s t o the sodiu

mscrubbe r cost s

• Residua l fue l oi l cost s fo r the larg e boile r size s droppe d whe n w e replace d th e curren t NSP S wit hstandard s fo r smaller

size d unit s (whic hhave highe r emission s limits )

r\>iAMAnPiv/iFi\r

r/ prnianMir a/

PMnflMRPBTM

nP. 3



### Lette r t o R
. Pahel-Shor t Septembe r 30 , 198 6 Pag e Tw o

• V e droppe d the requiremen t fo r stage d combustio n ai r o n ne w pulverize d coa l and highsulfu r residua l fue l oi l boilers

. Sinc e SC

Acost s mor e fo r hig hsulfu r residua l fue l oi l N0 X 

### emission s contro l than i t doe s fo r pulverize d coal , residua l fue l oi l ha s a relativ e cos t advantage

. Tabl e 3 present s a compariso n o f 198 4 IFCA Mresult s wit hthes e ne w Septembe r 198 6 IFCA Mresults

. Thes e ne wIFCA Mresult s ar e onl yroughl y comparabl e t o the 198 4 IFCA Mresult s becaus e ther e hav e bee n severa l change s i n assumption s (referenc e m ylette r t o yo u date d Septembe r 11 , 1986)

. Th e 198 6 Lo wOi l cos t increase s an d SO 2 emission s reduction s ar e large r tha n th e 198 6 HighOi l estimate s becaus e the 198 6 Lo wOi l baselin e IFCA Mrun include s a large r numbe r o f residua l fue l oi l boiler s tha n doe s the 198 6 HighOi l baselin e IFCA Mrun . Thi s differenc e i n th e baselin e fue l mi xoccur s becaus e the natura l ga s price s ar e lowe r relativ e t o the residua l fue l oi l price s fo r the HighOi l non-carriag e marke t ga s price s versu s the Lo wOi l non-carriag e rigi d marke t ga s prices

. Th e incrementa l C- E rati o fo r th e Baselin e v . 0. 8 fo r the 198 6 Lo w Oi l scenario s ($212/shor t ton ) i s lowe r than the comparabl e estimat e fo r the 198 6 HighOi l case s ($456/shor t ton ) becaus e ther e i s muc hmor e fue l switching t o natura l ga s i n the 198 6 Lo wOi l scenario s and becaus e the residua l fue l oi l sulfu r premium s ar e smalle r fo r the Lo wOi l price s tha n theyar e fo r the HighOi l prices

. Fo r 0. 8 v . 0.3 , th e 198 6 Lo wOi l incrementa l C- E rati o ($612/shor t ton ) i s smalle r tha n th e 198 6 HighOi l incrementa l C- E rati o ($702/shor t ton ) becaus e the Lo wOi l residua l fue l oi l sulfu r premium s ar e smalle r tha n th e HighOi l residua l fue l oi l sulfu r premiums

. Th e incrementa l C- E ratios , 0. 8 v . 0.3 , fo r the 198 6 Lo wand Hig hOi l case s ($61 2 an d $702/shor t ton ) ar e smalle r tha n th e 198 4 Referenc e estimat e ($l,164/shor t ton ) becaus e the residua l fue l oi l sulfu r premium s ar e smalle r i n the 198 6 Lo wand HighOi l case s i n compariso n wit hthe 198 4 Referenc e estimate s (primaril ybecaus e the 198 4 Referenc e crud e oi l price s ar e muc hhighe r than the 198 6 Lo wan d High Oi l crud e oi l prices)

.o

• O J T J C D l- t O C D 3 r t t n c »— . r t > c I- t I- t n > C O P - P

. 

### c p P 1
t- h C C D I - 1 O P - P 1 

### < ( 0 I- t ( 0 C u VO o T l C D f t O ( D 3 r t ( T t o O P G c o tt > r t 3 " (D i- t (D

r- — i n 3 O P

. P t- h H ) (t > l- t C D 3 r > C D P 3 C D 3 P - ( A (f l r * O 3 (f l ft ) t-t O r t o u i J 5 P ' r t O 3 * ym. 3 I N

r h M o 

### a o \ 

### « • o o o (f l 3 * o l- t r t

r r O 3 t o O f t IN ) C D (f l P - P

. 

### c p P * 

### ! ? C ( D i - 1 o P « P » r t o 3 P rt C H P I - * S c n c r C H 3 f 3 COO P O r o P p

> i n C D 9 P - (f l (f l P o 3 f t (B P

. C o r t f o 3 P - (f l 1 3 f t P 

### a o i f t f - M >-< ; 

### a c a > r o r o

- o o o (f l 3 " o f t r t

r t O 3 (f l f h o H rt 3 * ( B P 1 v O 0 0 4 > \*m (B f h ( 0 f t ( D 3 O ( D O P l (f l a t ( A 

### • 

# £ p . u P * v o 0 0 0 * S C P > O Q C f o f f
n Ol U l (B P > 3 O 3 t- 1 

### ^ t - J I-"

. 5 P « r t 

### •
> ( 0 a >
>- i rt> V) 

### c f - ' rt



### - rt ( B B t — ( 0 c at1

- o 3 f t ( B a c o r r P O 3 t- h f t o c rB ( D Us O O\N J



### - o o o (f l 

### c c O f t r t
r t O 3 ( n o o 

### a T J ft) H ( D 

### a rt O rt) B P ' (f l (f l P > P ) O 

### • C O p * c r C O O O I O 3 (f l f t ( D 

### a c o rt P o 3 rt ) O f t
r t c r a > 

### \ 2 S 0 0 r t C C D B P - (f l (f l 1 * O 3 o tr 1 ' r- 1 P > (f l Cf l O f t 

### c cr c r I B a 

### • H 

### cr p - c o p . o a > u 3 o r t f t f D t o C t- 1 r t p . 3 P i ( 0 p . O P 3 P > f h r " O ft) 3 rt O p . p * ft) P * f - 1 (f l O f t 

### c c r
l- H • n o 

### ^ £ 5 f t 

### c 3 

### * • O J 

### • O T J ( B f t O (B 3 rt ( n C I-- H ) 

### c f t f t ( B (f l P - 

### 9 * c P I p * O 

### « 0 0 T t a > f t o a > 3 r t tn C t-m f h C n f t a > ( 0 p . p . 

### c ft) p « f h C C D I - 1 O P « P " 

### •
P I 3 rt 3 " ( D f t (B C O O P.N J 

### e o r t p o 3 ( n o f t 

### c c r c r C B f t p > o i ft> p . p . ( B 

### a r t o P I c r o p . P * ( B l- J c r 

### c H 3 p . 3 P»0 P v O 0 0 o > C C P « rt>0 P C (B P 1 c r p > 

### • a > P i 3 

### a ^ s § o o r t C ( B 

### s p - (f l (f l p . o 3 P 1 p . B p . r t


### * L c r I B 3 p i

v O o T J C B f t O ( 0 3 rt C O O IS J rt) B p - w ( A P O 3 n f t C B (f l 

### c f- 1 rt ( a p . 3 C O p - O P 3 P > f h p . O ft) 3 rt ( B B p . ( a C O p . o 3 w f t C D 

## fr c O f t P « o 3 ( a H ) f t o B P i o 

### • u > M o * p *

• f t C D C^O q ft) 3 a o 

### • 0 0 T ) C D f t O C D 3 rt ( a C i - 1 

### ! ^ c f j f { C D (f l P - 

### 9 / c p i P 1 f h C C D P 1 o P " P * 

### • 

# 3 P

. (f l 

### c P 1 p i rt p . o 3 ( a 

### *

r t c r C D P * VO 0 0 4> po C D f h C D f t C D 3 o C D P I
• D O p > 13m, f t C 3 ( a t o



### w C D o p i 

### c (f l C D o f h P i (f l (f l c g T ) rt p . o 3 ( a f t C D P " P l rt C D 

### a r t o tn S ft) 3 P

. 5 3 O O X 

### cr o ( A C D f t O (f l o f t 

### c c r C D B p . o > u p . o 3 u ^ N r t -c/ > c r -« J c n S p . p " t-m t-m o 3 > - • r t 

### cr ft) 3 P

. p . P

. r t C D

y-m vo 0 0 CT l f o « o p . p * ft) P 1 p " ta o f t c rc C D p * v O 0 0 er > C C p . 0 0 c r n 

### c 3 3 * P i ( 0 c rp i O p - P > p i P 1 P "
u o f t 

### c cr 

# 2 3 p " ft) f t C M C D f t O o C O rt p . B T J P l O r t u c

o o p . 2 B C P - c rp > c rc & C D f t f t P * u v < 

### « r t c rct t o 3 - 3 C D rt P * c rv o C D 0 0 O N P 1 v o f 0 0 o o > « C C O p . p > WP " 

### cr P > O P - p . P 1 P 1 ( 0 f t o C f « 

### o e . c r p i 3 f t P

. c • 3 P i 3 * (f l p i 

### a P I r t f t o C D (0 ft) C P

. P " P

. rt

- B o f t C D (f l m-m. O p > H 3 C P

. c r p . I H 3 »T| o 

### o c 

# £ « P i f t P

. c r

C D o p i 

### c (f l C D p i P 1 p i f t C P-CW 3 P - r t < J P - C D O
•^ 3 (0 ft) C P u o rt o c rw C D r t c a |- » w v o 0 0 p > •( > 3 ? a r t C D c rlh C D C D f t t-- C D v o 3 c o o o\ C D 

### c c P I p . hrJO Q £ ? c r 

# g o p . f t p * 

### c 3 P > •P 1 P 1 C D f t 3
n c r C D f { o f h c r o p . p » C D f t c a 3 * p l 

### a rt o p i p . p . ( a P 1 P i f t O P C D f t r t 

### sr p > 3 rt 

### cr C D P * VO 0 0 J > p o C D r h C D f t C D 3 O C D C D (f l rt P > P " v o 0 0 C V C C p . (T O 

### cr o p . p *
r t o rt P > P 1
P i 3 3 C ft > P 1 p . N C D P

. O O Cf l rt p . 

### a B t J p > rt C D

*m*m. to o r t *—-. p . </></

> c a o f t C c r c r C D f t ( 0 a> B p . p > P 1 p . o 3 N-* * p * v o B p - P 1 P 1 p . o 3 -mm* P l p * B o (f l rt C D p * p * o c r o C O C D rt 

### cr C D O o B T J P « P > P l 3 o C D o P - P *
r t 

# 3 ( D 

### • 

### S r C D f t C D t- h o r» C D

w rt 3 * C D 

### < C D 

### ^
P 1 o 

### < Cf l 

### c P * f h C f t f t C D C O p . 

### a . c P ) p " H ) 

### c C D P " o p . p " rt T l C D « . P * v O 0 0 o» f o 

### < o p . P 1 

### « c r o p . P 1 C D f t ( 0 (f l O 

# 2 c r c r ( 0 P > p i 3 p . p i c r o 

### c rt 

### cr p f r h C O C D P * C D O rt C D p . » o o B 

### • o P 1 p . p 3 o C D p * « : V O ft) 0 0 C O o \ < J CC C D (N* ^ 

### cr a O P - p . H > P * H )

- C D f t p C D c r3 o r t C • • r t 3 * t-> p VO P * 0 0 f h J > O TOlh C D f h r t C D c rH C D (0 3 f t o C D C D C O - P - 

### a P e p * C o B t-> o ( 0th r t 

### c C D p P 1 P 1 P * O P " C O M o 

# 3 c r 

### !-> P B p - r t H ) O l- t f t C D C O P « 

### a . 

### c P p * f h C C D P * O P - P 1 

### » r t 

### cr C D O O B p *

•-i o f t r t 

### cr C D P I
• n o 

# £
n 

### c 3 

### < p . r t 

### c r r t 3 * C D O



### . iji P 1 c r c o o T J N > P * P « P 3 O C D Cf l rt f t p rt C D O Q 

### * < c rB C D p . P - X v . g 2
m%* rt C C D 

### a p . C D C D P > o 3Thereforthe0.3thislarge

f t p . p ^ t o 3 • O P p C D p p * < P > P * C

D (f l f t (0 »< J O O O f t r-> B e P T J c rn M O P P « O C

D P P 3 t o n O C D p C D (f l 3 00 •n m-. (0 rt -to - r t t o o (1 ) N|H ) rt O J < D i P > O P < o 3 P O l o C D - f f Cf l VO C D
• •t n a O J C D \ 3 c o r t c rp o r-- n r t o • r t W O 3 rt •mm* A ) •r t p . o ST " C D P - 3 f t C D H P P t o cr * o P 1 3 C Dth O J o f t T J P OQ C D 

# 2 f t C D C D t o t - 1 C D C D T J r t r t rt C D C D 

## §• " C D rt n o O J p a O • r d l_ i p > V O c r 0 0 C D O vP 1 C O 

### cr o r t r t

T lP. 5



### Lette r t o R
. Pahel-Shor t Septembe r 30 , 198 6 Pag e Fou r

emission s reductio n froma 3. 0 percen t sulfu r residua l

fue l oil

. I n the 198 6 Lo wOi l cases , the SO 2 emissio n reductio n (13,00 0 shor t tons ) i s large r tha n the 198 6 HighOi l SO 2 emissio n reductio n (6,00 0 shor t tons ) becaus e ther e i s mor e fue l switching t o natura l ga s i n th e 198 6 Lo wOi l case s i n compariso n wit hthe 198 6 HighOi l cases . Pleas e cal l m e i f yo u hav e an yquestions

.
Sincerely j

Ti mHoga n TH:ds s Enclosure s

cc : Dr
. A
. Weh eP. 6



# TABL E 1 . REGULATORYBASELIN E ASSUMPTION S

(Ib/MMBtu )

Fue l typ e

Natura l ga s Distillat e fue l oi l Residua l fue l oi l Coa l Boile r Siz e (MMBtu/hr )

100-25 0 100-25 0 100-25 0 100-25 0 >25 0 

# so 2

m m.



## SI P SI P 1.2 C 

## P

M

——



### - - 

## SI P 0.05 a 

## » b 

## 0.05 a



# a Propose dNSP S (4 9 F

R25103) . b

# 0. 2 lb/MMBt ui f th e annua l capacit y utilizatio nrat e i s les s than3 0 percent . Coa l i s neve r selecte dinIFCA M a s a new

industria l boile r fue l typ e i f th e annua l capacit y utilizatio nrat e i s les s tha n2 0 percent .

c 

# 30-day rollingaverage . Curren t NSPS .P. 7



# TABL E 2 . ALTERNATIVE S0 2 

# EMISSION S NSP S STANDARD S FORNE

W INDUSTRIAL BOILER S

Residua l Fue l Oi l Coa l Alternativ e Require dRequire d Contro l Boile r Siz e CeilingPercentag e Ceilin gPercentag e Leve l (MMBtu/hr ) (lb/MMBtu ) Reductio n(lb/MMBtu ) Reductio n

line

1 2 3 100-25 0

>25 0 >10 0 >10 0 >10 0 : :



## 0. 8 0. 3 0. 8 

# 9 0 b 

## 1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 - -

- - 

## 90 a 

## 90 a



### a

# Scrubbin gi s require dfo r al l coa l type s inIFCAM . b

# Scrubbin gi s requre dfo r al l residua l fue l oi l type s inIFCAM . Scrubbin gi s no t require dfo r distillat e fue l oil .P. 8



## TABL E 3

. COMPARISO NO F IFCA MPROJECTIONS *

Fue l Pric e Scenari o 198 4 198 6 198 6 Reference 1 5 

## Hig hOil c 

## Lo wOil d



## Baselin e v . 0. 8 SO ? emissio nred

. (IO 3 

## shor t tons ) Tota l ann . cos t increas e ($198 5 IO 6 

## ) Incrementa l C- E ($1985/shor t ton ) 0. 8 v . 0. 3 SO ? emissio nred

. (IO 3 

## shor t tons ) Tota l ann . cos t increas e ($198 5 IO 6 

## ) Incrementa l C- E ($1985/shor t ton ) 0. 3 v . al l scru b SO ? emissio nred

. (IO 3 

## shor t tons ) Tota l ann . cos t increas e ($198 5 IO 6 

## ) Incrementa l C- E ($1985/shor t ton ) Baselin e v . al l scru b SO ? emissio nred

. (IO 3 

## shor t tons ) Tota l ann . cos t increas e ($198 5 IO 6 

## ) Averag e C- E ($1985/shor t ton ) 17 3 6 3 36 4

6 7 7 8 1,16 4

2 2 6 27 3

26 3 14 8 56 3 12 0

5 5 45 6

5 0 3 5 70 2

6 1 9 3,22 0

17 6 10 9 61 8 28 2

6 0 21 2

6 0 3 7 61 2

1 3 7 6 5,95 3

35 5 17 2 48 5

a 

## Ne windustria l fossi l fuel-fire dboiler s lage r tha n10 0 MMBtu/h r and installe dbetwee n198 5 and 1990

. D 

## "Highoi l demand " scenario

. Projecte dImpact s o f Alternativ e Sulfu r Dioxid e Ne wSourc e Performanc e Standard s fo r Industria l Fossi l Fuel-Fire dBoilers

. EEA
. Marc h1985

. Baselin e and alternativ e contro l level s II , IV and VI
.

c 

## Non-carriag e marke t natura l ga s price s (EEA ) and revise d198 6 IC F industria l coa l prices

. Ru n i n Septembe r 1986

. d

## Non-carriag e rigi dmarke t natura l ga s price s (EEA ) and revise d198 6 IC F industria l coa l prices

. Ru n i n Septembe r 1986

.