# Residential Water Heater Efficiency Standards: Life-Cycle Cost Analysis JimLutz Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
11/9/98 

### GLCC Analysis1 0 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 1 ( 

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# Role in Standards Process * Economic Impact on Consumers * Input:

- Engineering Analysis

- GAMA

- LBNL Water Heater Database 

## * Output:

- Selection ofTrial Standards Levels

- Manufacturer Impact Analysis

- National Energy Savings Forecast 11/9/98 LCCAnalysis 2

# Overview ofLCC Analysis Methodology * Spreadsheet Tools - by fuel type * 5 major modules w/ supporting data sheets * Variability and uncertainty ofinputs

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# Implementation * Excel spreadsheet with Crystal Ball add-in * Inputs areprobability distributions * 10,000 calculations * Values selected from input distributions * Results as frequency distributions * Different tank sizes, household sizes, temperatures, etc.
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# Variability andUncertainty * Variability:

- value depends on something else

- e.g. average dailyhotwateruse depends on number ofpeople inhousehold 

## * Uncertainty:

- value isnotwell known

- e.g. thermostat setpoint has large range and is not well characterized
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# Types ofDistributions * triangular * custom distribution * discrete distribution * normal distribution * RECS data

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# Schematic ofLCC Analysis LCC & Payback Equipment Operating Cost Cost Energy Use

Hot Water Use 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 7

# Hot Water Use * Use depends on:

- number and age ofpeople

- air andwater temperatures

- tank size, appliances, adults athome 

## * from Gilbert Associates, EPRI EA-4006 * extended by LBNL to cover

- no clothes washers or dishwashers

- senior onlyhouseholds inmulti-family buildings

- notpaying forhotwater 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 8

# Hot Water Use Sampled RECS Data * actual households

- people/ climate / fuel type/ energy price

- e.g. nopre-schoolers livingbythemselves 

## * weighted by EIA to represent population * temperatures

- airfromNOAA

- inlet water = annual air+2°F
11/9/98 LCC Analysis 9

# Hot Water Use Setpoint Temperature 200 180 LL ^o,~~~ ~~Ttank= 134.1 +0.55 *(58-Tin) 13 160 1) | 1 40 ...... -. : . ., * '- -- -- - --... - * u 120 |-r* -- - . . ... I)-<

80 - ---- I - - 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Cold Water Temperature (deg F) 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 10

# Hot Water Use Average Hot Water Use Households Average Daily Hot Water Use (gallons/day) with Electric Water Heaters 

### 44.3 with Gas-fired Water Heaters 

### 48.9

11/9/98 LCC Analysis

# Hot Water Use Daily Hot Water Use
Daily HotWater Use Daily HotWater Use Householdswith Gas-fired Water Heaters Households with Electric Water Heaters (gal/day) (gal/day) 3000 --. _- ... _...,,^ aH 100% 2000 ...... ........ 100% 2500u n 80% > ° 1500 80% 0 0 2000 >" I 80 O O O

O O O O O60% | 60% g 1000 E E 500 ,20% Q 2 500 20% 0 U. 500 20% 0 0% 0 0%

0000000000 OOO00000 000 c) (D O N U)LO O0 N N N C0 -t (0 c0 0 N o 00 O Gal/Day Gal/Day

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# Energy Use Consumption vol.den.Cp. tank T intank 24 UA. Ttank T amb) Qin--' . ...... .... 4.UA.T tank Tamb? RE Pon 

## * Vol - from Hot Water Use * RE, UA, Pon from simulation models * Tin - average outdoor air temp + 2 °F * Ttank - thermostat setpoint temperature * Tamb - temperature air around water heater * den, Cp - properties ofwater 11/9/98 LCCAnalysis 13

# Energy Use Water Heater Location Location Percent Assumed Air Temperature Unheated 20.9% Average of Basement outdoor & 72°F Heated 26.0% 72°F Basement Garage 24.7% Outdoor + 5°F House 28.3% 72°F
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# Energy Use Electric Water Heater Design Options Average Average Energy Electricity Use Savings (kWh/yr) (Btu/day) 0 Analytic Baseline 

### 3503 1 0+ Heat Traps 

## 3408 

## 884 2 1+2" Jacket 

### Insulation 

## 3362 1312 3 1+ 2.5" Jacket Insulation 

## 3318 1726 4 3+ PlasticTank 

## 3276 2121 5 3+ Insulated Tank Bottom 

## 3296 1936

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# Energy Use Gas-fired Water Heater Design Options Average Energy Use Average Energy (MCF/yr) (kWh/yr) Savings (Btu/day) 0 Analytic Baseline 

## 22.32 1 0+ Heat Traps 

## 21.72 1671 2 1+ 2"Jacket Insulation 

## 20.58 4886 3 1+ 2.5" Jacket Insulation 

## 20.34 5567 4 3+ SideArm Heaterw/llD 

## 17.37 23 13719 5 2+ Improved Flue Baffle 

## 20.04 6422 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 16

# Operating Cost OprCost= AnnualEnergyUse · FutureEnergyPrice + MaintCost FutureEnergyPrice =EnergyPrice 98 

### · EnergyIncrRatio

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# Operating Cost 10 

## , Electricity Price Scenarios

9 0) - - --- 7 ' 6 ( , AEO 1998 « ___...GRI 1998 ~5 -wx GRI extended

_ High Growth

. - Low Growth 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 year 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 18

# Operating Cost Natural Gas Price Scenarios 7 o0 °° 6 °- 6

GRI 1998 K GRI extended

_ _ High Growth _ - Low Growth 4
- -

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 year 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 19

# Operating Cost Electric Water Heater Design Options Average Annual Average Savings Operating Costs from Baseline 

### 0 Analytic Baseline $292.93 1 

### 0+ Heat Traps 

### $285.05 $7.88 2 1+ 2"Jacket Insulation 

### $281.22 $1 

## 1.71 3 1+ 2.5" Jacket 

### Insulation 

### $277.55 $15.38 4 3+ PlasticTank 

## $274.01 $18.92 5 3+ Insulated Tank Bottom 

## $275.66 $17.27 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 20

# Operating Cost Gas-fired Water Heater Design Options Average Annual Average Savings Operating Costs from Baseline 0 

### Analytic Baseline $159.36 1 0+ HeatTraps 

## $155.12 $4.24 2 1+ 2"Jacket 

### Insulation 

## $147.00 $12.36 3 1+ 2.5" Jacket 

### Insulation 

### $145.28 

## $14.08 4 3+ SideArm Heaterw/llD 

## $126.25 $33.11 5 2+ 

### Improved Flue Baffle 

### $143.10 

## $16.26

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# Equipment Cost EquipCost = MfrCost · Markup · ( 1+ SalesTax) + TotInstCost 

## * Manufacturer Cost * Markup * Sales Tax * Total Installation Cost

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# Equipment Cost Manufacturer Cost * baseline model costs from GAMA

- 40 gallon gas-fired water heater

- 50 gallon electric water heater

- HCFC-141b foam insulation 

## * design option costs from GAMA

- Heat Traps, 2" Jacket Insulation, Insulated Tank Bottom for electric waterheaters

- Heat Traps, 2" Jacket Insulation, IID, Improved Flue Baffle for gas-fired water heaters 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 23

# Equipment Cost Manufacturer Cost (cont'd) * scaled forHFC-245fa foam insulation * scaled forotherrated volumes

- 30, 40, 65 and 80 gallon sizes forelectric;

- 30, 50 and 75 gallon sizes forgasunits 

### * 2.5"jacket insulation costs scaled up from 2" jacket insulation. * plastic tank, side arm heater from other sources.

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# Equipment Cost LBNL Water Heater Database * nearly 80 retail & wholesale distributors

- nation wide

- retailprices for all models sold

- installation and delivery, removal, permits, parts

- sales tax 

## * manufacturer product literature (dimensions, features) * GAMA directory (efficiency, ratings) 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 25

# Equipment Cost Retail Price

Retail Price Retail Price ElectricWater Heaters Gas-fired Water Heaters $600 $600 $567 $500 - - -$479 $500 - - -.- - -... , ...„„ $429 4 .$452 $400 | $357 $380 $400 . .. $ 8 p357 ! $357 Q $300 -- $290- $277- $ -- - $275 $300
- ! $260 $256 $200 $ 1 $1- 60 $179
- - $200 - - - .$195 i~~~ ~~~~~$158 g.$12~$146 150 $133 $100 - 112 $116 $128 $100 - $11833

$0 I $0- I l 30 gal 40gal 50 gal 65 gal 80 gal 30 gal 40 gal 50 gal 75 gal

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# Equipment Cost Markup * Markup = Retail Price / Manufacturer Cost * Inputs are distributions * Varies by size * Retail Price

- 5year warranties

- no extra features 

## * Manufacturer Cost

- existing baseline model 11/9/98 LCCAnalysis 27

# Equipment Cost Installation Cost

InstallatInstallation Cost ElectricWater HeatersGas-fired ater Heaters $3$300 -- - $250 $25258$258 $258 __$250 .. $258 $258 _ $258 r $200 . .- $175 $209_ $ $200 - 1 200 $50 210C 21 c $150 , $165 $167 $1 65 $150 $163 $160 57 $159 ~$150
- $16 $1 $150 ~0)~~~ ~$145 $100- $100.. - $100_ $65 $65 $65 $50.$ $65 $65 65 $0 - $0- -- - 30 gal 40 gal 50gal 65 gal 80 gal 30 gal 40 gal 50gal 75 gal

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# Equipment Cost Extra Installation Costs * Electricity for Side Arm Heater * Type-B vent connector for Improve Flue Baffle * Burner tube extension forincreased insulation on oil-fired

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# Equipment Costs Electric Water Heater Design Options Average Average Total Manufacturer Installed Costs Costs 0 Analytic Baseline 

### $121.13 $345.09 1 0+ HeatTraps 

### $127.81 

## $355.58 2 1+ 2"Jacket Insulation 

## $148.43 $388.35 3 1+ 2.5" Jacket 

### Insulation 

### $163.97 $413.08 4 3

### + PlasticTank 

## $191.90 $456.98 5 3+ Insulated Tank Bottom 

### $196.86 

## $464.68 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 30

# Equipment Costs Gas-fired Water Heater Design Options Average Average Total Manufacturing Installed Costs Costs 0 Analytic Baseline 

### $175.56 

### $385.76 1 0+ HeatTraps 

### $177.94 

### $388.86 2 1+ 2"Jacket Insulation 

### $194.50 $411.47 3 1+ 2.5" Jacket Insulation 

## $205.93 $427.04 4 3+ SideArm Heater w/llD 

## $314.05 $602.15 5 2 + Improved Flue Baffle 

### $201.67 

## $530.50 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 31

# Life-Cycle Cost & Payback Equations Lifetime Life e OprCost option.year 

### LCOCEquipCost option + X 

### _-_- year= (1 

### 1 Drate)year EquipCost ption- EquipCostbaseline 

### Payback optio-----n- 

### --- OprCostbaseline- OprCostoption
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# Life-Cycle Cost & Payback Equations LCC EquiLCost(option) L 

### OprCost(option, year) 

### LCC=EquipCost(option) + 

### , ----- year (1 + Drate)year



### . EquipCost(option) - EquipCost(baseline) Payback(option)= OprCost(baseline) - OprCost(option)

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# Life-Cycle Cost & Payback Discount Rate Cash& savings Drae mo gage _~ 2~~~~~~~~~Credit cards I.

0.00%/ 3.75% 7.50% 11.25% 15.00%/ 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 34

# Life-Cycle Cost & Payback Electric Water Heater Lifetimes Ufetime

. = 4.00 7.75 11.50 15.25 19.00 Appliance Magazine, Sept 1998 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 35

# Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Electric Water Heaters Design Options Fraction of Average Median Population LCC Payback Benefitting Savings (years) 1 HeatTraps 

## 94.9% $54.11 1.07 2 1+ 2" Jacket Insulation 

## 83.9% $52.93 3.49 3 1+ 2.5" Jacket Insulation 

## 79.9% $58.67 4.14 4 3+ PlasticTank 

## 68.6% $43.55 5.76 5 3+ InsulatedTankBottom 

### 59.3% $22.51 

## 6.79 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 36

# Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Sensitivity Analysis Electric Water Heaters Discount rate ': ':110.39 Total Installed Cost 0.34 2.5" Jacket Insulation Lifetime -0.28 Operating Cost -0.22 ;. Baseline Operating Cost -0.19 2.5" Jacket Insulation

Total Installed Cost Baseline -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

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# Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Gas-fired Water Heaters Design Options Fraction of Average Median Population LCC Payback Benefitting Savings (years) 1 Heat Traps 

### 95.5% $26.51 0.70 2 1+ 2" Jacket Insulation 

### 97.9% $60.56 1.87 3 1+ 2.5" Jacket Insulation 

### 93.8% $57.01 2.62 4 3+ SideArm Heaterw/llD 

### 54.9% $14.70 6.25 5 3+ Improved Flue Baffle 

### 21.6% ($31.27) 9.35 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 38

# Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Sensitivity Analysis Gas-fired Water Heaters Lifetime -0.50 -Li :?11 -i: Discount Rate 1111 ; 10.45 Operating Cost -0.27 Baseline Operating Cost25

2"Jacket Insulation -0 Total Installed Cost 2"Jacket Insulation Total Installed Cost 0.10 Baseline -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 11/9/98 LCC Analysis 39

# Request for Stakeholder Comments * waterheater lifetimes * manufacturing costs, retailprices, and installation costs 

## * manufacturer costtoretail pricemarkups * insulation characteristics and costs * projected fuelprice scenarios

· uncertainty onEF, RE, andUA fordesign options * inlet watertemperatures * thermostat setpointtemperatures * hotwaterusemodels 11/9/98 LCC Analysis .40