CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 10

- 1

10.1.1 Alternative Scenarios

................................ ................................ ......................... 10

- 1

10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENC IES FOR BASE AND STA NDARDS CASES

.............. 10

- 1

10.2.1 Base Case Efficiencies

................................ ................................ ....................... 10

- 2

10.2.1.1 Standards Case Efficiencies

................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 3

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS

................................ ................................ ............... 10

- 6

10.3.1 Definition

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 10

- 6

10.3.2 Inputs

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 7

10.3.2.1 Shipments

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 7

10.3.2.2 Equipment Stock

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 8

10.3.2.3 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

................................ ..................... 10

- 8

10.3.2.4 National Annual Energy Consum ption

................................ .................. 10

- 10

10.3.2.5 Site

- to

- Primary Energy Conversion Factors

................................ .......... 10

- 10

10.3.2.6 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Factors

................................ ............................. 10

- 11

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

................................ ................................ ............................. 10

- 11

10.4.1 Definition

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 10

- 11

10.4.2 Inputs

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 10

- 13

10.4.2.1 Average Annual Installed Price

................................ .............................. 10

- 13

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit

................................ ............... 10

- 15

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Increases in Equipment Cost

................................ ............ 10

- 15

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost

................................ ................ 10

- 16

10.4.2.5 Discount Factor

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 16

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs

................................ ................................ ........... 10

- 16

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 17

10.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

........ 10

- 17

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

................................ ................................ ........................... 10

- 17

10.5.2 Annual Costs and Savings

................................ ................................ ............... 10

- 18

10.5.3 National Energy Savings Results by Energy Efficiency Level

....................... 10

- 19

10.5.4 Customer Net Present Value Results by Energy Efficiency Level

.................. 10

- 21

10-iLIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Base Case Estimated and Forecast Efficiency Level Market Share

Distributions for Equipment Class A Refrigerated Beverage Vending

Machines

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 10

- 2

Table 10.2.2 Base Case Estimated and Forecast Efficiency Level Market Share

Distributions for Equipment Class B Refrigerated Beverage Vending

Machines

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 10

- 3

Table 10.2.3 Equipment Class A HFC: Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions

for Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 4

Table 10.2.4 Equipment Class A CO 2 : Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions

for Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 4

Table 10.2.5 Equipment Class B HFC: Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions

for Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 5

Table 10.2.6 Equipment Class B CO 2 : Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions

for Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 5

Table 10.2.7 Combination B HFC Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions for

Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ........................... 10

- 6

Table 10.3.1 Equipment Class A Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines:

Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for Base and

Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ........................... 10

- 8

Table 10.3.2 Equipment Class B Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines:

Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for Base and

Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ........................... 10

- 9

Table 10.3.3 Equipment Class Combination Refrigerated Beverage Vending

Machines: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for Base

and Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ................... 10

- 10

Table 10.4.1 Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines: Weighted Average

Installed Price for Base and Standards Cases

................................ ............ 10

- 14

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculation of National Energy Savings and Net Present

Value

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 10

- 18

Table 10.5.2 Equipment Class A: Cumulative NES Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Results (quads)

... 10

- 20

Table 10.5.3 Equipment Class B: Cumulative NES Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Results (quads)

... 10

- 20

Table 10.5.4 Equipment Class Combo A and Combo B: Cumulative NES Full

- Fuel

Cycle Results (10

- 3 quads)

................................ ................................ ......... 10

- 21

Table 10.5.5 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment

Class A Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines, 3

- Percent Discount

Rate

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 10

- 22

Table 10.5.6 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment

Class A Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines, 7

- Percent Discount

Rate

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 10

- 22

Table 10.5.7 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment

Class B Refrigerated Be verage Vending Machines, 3

- Percent Discount

Rate

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 10

- 23

Table 10.5.8 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipme nt

Class B Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines, 7

- Percent Discount

Rate

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 10

- 23

10-iiTable 10.5.9 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment

Class Combination Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines, 3

-

Percent Discount Rate

................................ ................................ ................ 10

- 24

Table 10.5 .10 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment

Class Combination Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines, 7

-

Percent Discount Rate

................................ ................................ ................ 10

- 25

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.5.1 Non

- Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in

Operating Cost for Equipment Class A HFC Refrigerated Beverage

Vending Machines at Efficiency Level 5

................................ ................... 10

- 19

10-iiiCHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the method the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used to conduct

a national impacts analysis (NIA) of each standard level for refrigerated beverage vending

machines (BVMs) . DOE evaluated the following impacts: (1) national energy savings (NES)

attributable to each possible standard, (2) monetary value of those energy savings to customers

of the considered equipment , (3) increased total installed cost of the equipment because of

standards, and (4) net present value (NPV) of energy savings (the difference between the value

of energy savings and increased total installed cost).

DOE determin ed both the NES and NPV for all the effic iency levels (ELs) considered for

refrigerated beverage vending machines . DOE performed all calculations for the considered

equipment using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet

( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/73 ). The

spreadsheets combine the calculations for determining the NES and NP V for each considered

equipment class with input from the appropriate s hipments model. Details and instructions for

using the NIA model are provided in a ppendix 10

- A.

Chapter 9 provides a detailed description of the shipments models that DOE used to

for ecast future purchases of the considered equipment. Chapter 9 includes a description of the

sensitivity of shipments to total installed cost and operating cost, and how DOE captured those

sensitivities within the NIA model.

In its preliminary analysis, D OE studied three different equipment classes in detail as

described in c hapter 3

, Market and Technology Assessment. To estimate the national impacts of

potential standards for the equipment considered in this rulemaking, DOE applied the equipment

cost and annual energy consumption estimation to each equipment class considered in this

analysis.

10.1.1 Alternative Scenarios

The results in this chapter were calculated using selected inputs from the Reference case

in the Energy Information Administration ’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook 201 4 ( AEO201 4 ). 1

DOE also calculated NIA results using inputs from the High Economic Growth case and the Low

Economic Growth case in AEO201 4

. These results can be viewed in the NIA spreadsheet by

selecting the high or low gro wth economic scenario

.

10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENCIES FOR BASE AND STANDARDS CASES

A key factor in estimating NES and NPV is the trend in energy efficiency forecasted for

the base case (without amended standards) and each of the standards cases. In calculating t he

NES, per

- unit annual energy consumption is a direct function of equipment efficiency. For the

NPV, two inputs depend on efficiency. The first input, the per

- unit total installed cost, is a direct

function of efficiency. The per

- unit annual operating cos t, because it is a function of the per

- unit

10-1annual consumption, is indirectly depen dent on equipment efficiency. This section describes the

method DOE used to forecast the energy efficienc y distribution of the considered equipment

under the base case and each of the potential standards cases

.

10.2.1 Base Case Efficiencies

The base case market share distribution of ELs in the compliance year is discussed in

chapter 8, and shown in the tables below. DOE assumed that the distribution would remain the

same for all years in the shipments forecast period.

Table 10.2

. 1 Base Case Estimated and Forecast Efficiency Level Market Share

Distributions for Equipment Class A Refrigerated Beverage Vending

Machines

Market Shares ( %)

Efficiency Level HFC CO 2

0 4.67 4.67

1 45.26 45.26

2 21.46 21.46

3 21.46 21.46

4 7.15 7.15

5 0.00 0.00

6 0.00 0.00

7 0.00 0.00

8 0.00 0.00

9 0.00 0.00

10-2Table 10.2

. 2 Base Case Estimated and Forecast Efficiency Level Market Share

Distributions for Equipment Class B Refrigerated Beverage Vending

Machines

Market Shares (%)

Efficiency Level HFC CO 2

0 5.83 5.83

1 0.00 0.00

2 7.75 7.75

3 28.29 28.29

4 7.75 7.75

5 11.6 3 11.63

6 3. 88 3.88

7 15.5 0 15.5 0

8 11.6 3 11.6 3

9 0.0 0 0.0 0

10 3. 88 7. 75

11 3. 88

For combination refrigerated beverage vending machines there is currently no standard

and no ENERGY STAR specification ; therefore

, there is less incentive for manufacturers to

make these machines exhibit a high level of energy efficiency. DOE therefore assumes 100

percent of the market will be at the minimum efficiency level in the base case.

10.2.1.1 Standards C ase Efficiencies

Table 10.2

. 3 through Table 10.2

. 6 show the efficiency distributions that DOE used for

equipment c lass A and B refrigerated beverage vending machine s under each standards case. The

tables include the shipment

- weighted energy use factor (SWEUF) associated with each standards

case

. In the absence of other data, DOE assumed that the standard case distribu tion of efficiency

levels remains static in the future.

10-3Table 10.2

. 3 Equipment Class A HFC : Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions for

Standards Cases

Effi

ciency

Level Energy

Use

Factor Market Share (%)

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

EL 0 1.00 4.7

- - - - - - - - -

EL1 0.95 45.3 49.9

- - - - - - - -

EL2 0.90 21.5 21.5 71.4

- - - - - - -

EL3 0.85 21.5 21.5 21.5 92.8

- - - - - -

EL4 0.80 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 100.0

- - - - -

EL5 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - -

EL6 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - -

EL7 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- -

EL8 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

-

EL9 0.57 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.909 0.907 0.882 0.846 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.570

Table 10.2

. 4 Equipment Class A CO 2 : Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions for

Standards Cases

Effi

c iency

Level Energy

Use

Factor Market Share

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

EL0 1.00 4.7

- - - - - - - - -

EL1 0.95 45.3 49.9

- - - - - - - -

EL2 0.90 21.5 21.5 71.4

- - - - - - -

EL3 0.85 21.5 21.5 21.5 92.8

- - - - - -

EL4 0.80 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 100.0

- - - - -

EL5 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - -

EL6 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - -

EL7 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- -

EL8 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

-

EL9 0.59 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.909 0.907 0.882 0.846 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.590

10-4Table 10.2

. 5 Equipment Class B HFC : Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions for

Standards Cases

Effi

ciency

Level Energy

Use

Factor Market Share

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

EL 0 1.00 5.8

- - - - - - - - - - -

EL1 0.95 0.0 5.8

- - - - - - - - - -

EL2 0.90 7.8 7.8 13.6

- - - - - - - - -

EL3 0.85 28.3 28.3 28.3 41.9

- - - - - - - -

EL4 0.80 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 49.6

- - - - - - -

EL5 0.75 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 61.3

- - - - - -

EL6 0.70 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 65.1

- - - - -

EL7 0.65 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 80.6

- - - -

EL8 0.60 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 92.3

- - -

EL9 0.55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.3

- -

EL10 0.50 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 96.1

-

EL11 0.49 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 100.0

SWEUF 0.754 0.751 0.748 0.741 0.720 0.695 0.665 0.632 0.592 0.546 0.500 0.490

Table 10.2

. 6 Equipment Class B CO 2 : Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions for

Standards Cases

Effi

c iency

Level Energy

Use

Factor Market Share

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

EL 0 1.00 5.8

- - - - - - - - - -

EL1 0.95 0.0 5.8

- - - - - - - - -

EL2 0.90 7.8 7.8 13.6

- - - - - - - -

EL3 0.85 28.3 28.3 28.3 41.9

- - - - - - -

EL4 0.80 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 49.6

- - - - - -

EL5 0.75 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 61.3

- - - - -

EL6 0.70 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 65.1

- - - -

EL7 0.65 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 80.6

- - -

EL8 0.60 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 92.3

- -

EL9 0.55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.3

-

EL10 0.50 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 100.0

SWEUF 0.754 0.751 0.748 0.741 0.721 0.696 0.665 0.633 0.592 0.546 0.500

10-5For all four types of combination refrigerated beverage vending machines, the market is

assumed to be 100% at the standards case level . See Table 10.2

. 7 for an example.

Table 10.2

. 7 Combination B HFC Efficiency Level Market Share Distributions for

Standards Cases

Effi

ciency

Level Energy

Use

Factor Market Share

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

EL 0 1.00 100.0

- - - - - - - -

EL1 0.90 0.0 100.0

- - - - - - -

EL2 0.80 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - - -

EL3 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - -

EL4 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - -

EL5 0.55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - -

EL6 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- -

EL7 0.45 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

-

EL8 0.41 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.410

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

DOE calculated the national energy savings associated with the difference between the

base case and the case associated with each potential standard for the BVM equipment

considered herein . DOE calculated cumulative energy savings throughout the forecast p eriod,

which extends from 201 9 to 20 48

. DOE used full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) energy factors to estimate

national energy savings ; see section 10.3.2.6

.

10.3.1 Definition

The fo llowing equation shows that DOE calculated annual NES as the difference between

two projections: a base case (without amended standards) and a standards case. Positive values

of NES represent energy savings (that is, national annual energy consumption (AEC ) under a

standard is less than in the base case).

STD _ BASE y 

### AEC AEC NES

=

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of annual national energy savings throughout the

forecast period, which extends over the lifetime of equipment shipped in 2019

- 2048. Since the

analysis includes lifetimes of up to 30 years, the evaluation period for cumulative energy savings

spans 2019

- 20 7 8

.

10-6DOE calculated the national annual site energy consumption by multiplying the number

or stock of each equipment class (by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (UEC; also by

vintage). The calculation of national annual energy consumption is represented by the following

equation.



# ∑ × = V V y 

### UEC STOCK AEC

DOE defined the quantities for the two previous expressions as follows.

AEC = nat ional annual energy consumption each year in quadrillion British thermal units

(quads), summed over vintages of the equipment stock, STOCK V , NES

= annual national energy savings (quads)

, STOCK V = stock of equipment (millions of units) of vintage V that sur vive in the year

for which DOE calculated annual energy consumption

, UEC V = annual energy consumption per equipment in kilowatt

- hours (kWh)

, V = year in which the equipment was purchased as a new unit

, and

y = year in the forecast.

Electricity consumption is converted from site energy to source energy (quads) by

applying a time

- dependent conversion factor.

The stock of equipment depends on annual shipments and the equipment lifetime. As

described in chapter 9, DOE projected shipments under the base case and the standards cases.

DOE projected that in some instances shipments under the standards cases would be lower than

under the base case, because DOE believes that the higher purchase cost of more

- efficient

equipment would cause some customers t o forego purchasing new equipment

.

To avoid including savings attributable to shipments displaced because of standards,

DOE used the projected standards

- case shipments and, in turn, the standards

- case stock, to

calculate the annual energy consumption fo r the base case.

10.3.2 Inputs

The inputs to the calculation of NES are:

• s hipments;

• equipment stock ( STOCK V );

• annual energy consumption per unit ( UE C );

• national annual energy consumption ( AEC ); and

• site

- to

- source conversion factor ( src_conv ).

10.3.2.1 Shipments

DOE forecasted shipments of each considered equipment class under the base case and

all standards cases. Several factors affect forecasted shipments, including purchase cost

,

10-7operating cost

, and profitability . As noted earlier, the increased cost of more

- e fficient equipment

causes some customers to forego buying the equipment . Consequently, in some instances

shipments forecasted under the standards cases are lower than under the base case. The method

DOE used to calculate and generate the shipments forecast s for each considered equipment class

is described in detail in c hapter 9, Shipments Analysis.

10.3.2.2 Equipment Stock

The equipment stock in a given year is the number of each type of equipment shipped

from earlier years that survive in th at year. The NIA model t rack s the number of units shipped

each year . DOE assumes that refrigerated beverage vending machine s have an increasing

probability of retiring as they age. The probability of survival as a function of years since

purchase is the survival function. Chapter 8 provides additional details on the survival functions

that DOE used

.

10.3.2.3 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

DOE used the SWEUFs presented in section 10.2 for the base case and standards cases,

along with the data on annual energy consumption presented in chapters 7 and 8, to estimate the

shipment

- weighted average annual per

- unit energy consump tion under the base and each

standards case. The average annual per

- unit energy consumption for each equipment category is

shown in the tables below

.

Table 10.3

. 1 Equipment Class A Refrigerated Beverage Ven ding Machines: Shipment

Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for Base and Standards Cases

Standard at Efficiency Level:

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Equipment Class A (Total)

SWEUF 0.909 0.907 0.882 0.846 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.579

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 1,387 1,383 1,345 1,291 1,220 1,144 1,067 991 915 883

A HFC

SWEUF 0.909 0.907 0.882 0.846 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.570

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 1,387 1,383 1,345 1,291 1,220 1,144 1,067 991 915 869

A CO 2

SWEUF 0.909 0.907 0.882 0.846 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.590

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 1,387 1,383 1,345 1,291 1,220 1,144 1,067 991 915 900

SWEUF = shipment

- weighted energy use factor

10-8Table 10.3

. 2 Equipment Class B Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines: Shipment

Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for Base and Standards Cases

Standard at Efficiency Level

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Equipment Class B (Total)

SWEUF 0.754 0.751 0.748 0.741 0.720 0.696 0.665 0.632 0.592 0.546 0.500 0.490

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 1,294 1,289 1,284 1,273 1,237 1,194 1,142 1,086 1,016 937 858

841

B HFC

SWEUF 0.754 0.751 0.748 0.741 0.720 0.695 0.665 0.632 0.592 0.546 0.500 0.490

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 1,294 1,289 1,284 1,272 1,236 1,194 1,141 1,085 1,016 937 858 841

B CO 2

SWEUF 0.754 0.751 0.748 0.741 0.721 0.696 0.665 0.633 0.592 0.546 0.500

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 1,295 1,290 1,285 1,273 1,237 1,194 1,142 1,086 1,017 938 858

SWEUF = shipment

- weighted energy use factor

10-9Table 10.3

. 3 Equipment Class Combination Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines:

Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for Base and Standards

Cases

Standard at Efficiency Level

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Equipment Class Combination (Total)

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.405 0. 3 5 0 0.300 0.290

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 1970 1773 1576 1379 1182 1084 985 887 797 778 667 644

Combo A HFC

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.400 0.350 0.300 0.290

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 2222 2000 1778 1556 1333 1222 1111 1000 889 778 667 644

Combo A CO 2

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.400 0.350 0.300 0.290

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 2222 2000 1778 1556 1333 1222 1111 1000 889 778 667 644

Combo B HFC

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.410

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 1718 1546 1374 1203 1031 945 859 773 704

Combo B CO 2

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.410

Avg. energy

use (kWh) 1718 1546 1374 1203 1031 945 859 773 704

SWEUF = shipment

- weighted energy use factor

10.3.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption

The national AEC is the product of the annual energy consumption per unit and the

number of units of each vintage. This method of calculation accounts for differences in unit

energy consumption from year to year. In determining national annual energy consumpti on,

DOE first calculated annual energy consumption at the site

, then applied a conversion factor and

a full

- fuel

- cycle energy factor , described in section 10.3.2.5 and section 10.3.2.6 , to calculate

primary energy consumption.

10.3.2.5 Site

- to

- Primary Energy Conversion Factors

In determining national annual energy consumption, DOE i nitially calculated the annual

energy consumption at the site (for electricity, the energy in kWh consumed at the

establishment). It then used site energy consumption to calculate primary (source) energy

10-10consumption by applying a conversion factor to accou nt for losses associated with the

generation, transmission, and distribution of electrici ty

. Th e conversion factor is a multiplicative

factor used to convert site energy consumption into primary or source energy consumption,

expressed in quads (quadrillion Btu). DOE used annual conversion factors based on the version

of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) a that corresponds to AEO 201 4 . The factors

are marginal values, which represent the response of the system to an incremental decrease in

consumption. For electricity, the conversion factors change over time in response to projected

changes in generation sources ( i.e., the types of power plants projected to provide electricity to

the Nation ). The values derived from the AEO201 4 NEMS end in 2040

. DOE assumed that

conversion factors remain at the 2040 values throughout the rest of the forecas t.

10.3.2.6 F ull

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Factors

The full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) measures point

- of

- use (site) energy; the energy losses

associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; and the energy

consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. To calculate

the FFC by incorporating the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or

distributing primary fuels, referred to as upstream activities, DOE developed FFC multipliers

using the data and projectio ns generated by the NEMS used for AEO 2013 . The AEO 2013

provides extensive information about the energy system, including projections of future oil,

natural gas, and coal supplies; energy use for oil and gas field and refinery operations; and fuel

consump tion and emissions related to electric power production. This information can help

define a set of parameters that represents the energy intensity of energy production.

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

DOE calculated the NPV of the increased product cost and reduced op erating cost

associated with the difference between the base case and each potential standards case for the

considered refrigerated beverage vending machine equipment classes

.

10.4.1 Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time

- series of costs and sa vings. The NPV is

described by the equation:



### PVC PVS NPV

_ 

### =

a For more information on NEMS, please refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information

Administration documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000

, DOE/EIA

- 0581(2000), March 2000. EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of

the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor cod e modifications

and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on EIA assumptions, DOE refers to the model

by the name NEMS

- BT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been

performed). NEMS

- BT wa s previously called NEMS

- BRS.

10-11Where:

PVS

= present value of savings in operating cost, and

PVC

= present value of increased total product cost to customers

.

DOE determined the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions.



## ∑

y y DF OCS PVS × =



## ∑

y y DF TIC PVC × =

Where:

OCS = total annual savings in operating cost each year summed over vintages of the

equipment stock, STOCK V , TIC = total annual increases in produc t cost each year summed over years of the

equipment shipments, S HIP

y , DF = discount factor in each year

, and

y = year in the forecast.

DOE calculated the total annual customer savings in operating cost by multiplying the

number or stock of a given equipment class (by vintage) by its per

- unit operating cost savings

(also by vintage). DOE calculated the total annual increases in customer equipment co st by

multiplying the number of shipments of the given equipment class (by v intage) by its per

- unit

inc rease in customer equipment cost (also by vintage). The calculation of total annual operating

cost savings and total annual equipment cost increases is represented by the following equations.



## ∑

V V y UOCS STOCK OCS × =



## ∑

y y y UTIC SHIP TIC × =

Where:

STOCK V = stock of equipment of vintage V that survive in the year for which DOE

calculated annual energy consumption,

UOCS V = annual per

- unit savings in operating cost,

V = year in which the equipmen t was purchased as a new unit

, SHIP

y = shipments of equipment in year y , and

UTIC

y = annual per

- unit increase in installed equipment cost in year y

.

DOE determined the total inc reased equipment cost for each year from the effective date

of a potential standard (2019) to 20 48

. It determined the present value of ope rating cost savings

for each year from the effective date of the standard to the year when all units purchased by 2048

ha ve been retired. DOE calculated costs and savings as the difference between a standards case

and a base case without amended standards.

10-12DOE develop ed a discount factor from the national discount rate and the number of years

between the present ( i.e. , year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the

costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings.

10.4.2 Inputs

The inputs to calculation of the NPV are:

• a verage annual equipment cost;

• average annual sav ings in operating cost ;

• total annual increases in equipment cost;

• total annual savings in operating cost;

• discount factor;

• present value of costs; and

• present value of savings.

The increase in total annual equipment cost is equal to the annual change in the average

annual equipment cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the

shipments forecasted in the standards case. As with the calculation of the NES, DOE did not

calculate total annual equipment costs using base

- case shipments. To avoid including savings

due to displaced shipments (by custo mer s deciding not to buy higher

- cost equipment ), DOE used

the standards

- case projection of shipments and, in turn, the standards

- case stock, to calculate

equipment costs.

The total annual savings in operating cost are equal to the change in annual opera ting cost

(difference between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments

forecasted in the standards case.

10.4.2.1 Average Annual Installed Price

The average annual installed price is directly dependent on efficiency. DOE therefore

used the efficiency distributions presented in section 10.2.1.1 for the base case and each

standards case, along with the equipmen t costs at various EL s ( presented in chapter 8), to

estimate the weighted

- average annual installed price under the base and s tandards cases

. The

average annual installed price for each equipment category is shown in Table 10.4

. 1

.

10-13Table 10.4

. 1 Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines: Weighted Average Installed

Price for Base and Standards Cases

Standard at Efficiency Level

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Equipment Class A (Total)

SWEUF 0.909 0.907 0.882 0.846 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.579

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 2,438 2,438 2,441 2,450 2,489 2,541 2,723 2,965 3,208 3,309

A HFC

SWEUF 0.909 0.907 0.882 0.846 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.570

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 2,401 2,401 2,404 2,412 2,447 2,499 2,647 2,894 3,141 3,289

A CO 2

SWEUF 0.909 0.907 0.882 0.846 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.590

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 2,479 2,480 2,483 2,493 2,536 2,590 2,809 3,047 3,285 3,333

Equipment Class B (Total)

SWEUF 0.754 0.751 0.748 0.741 0.720 0.696 0.665 0.632 0.592 0.546 0.500 0.490

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,201 2,206 2,222 2,265 2,358 2,688 3,046 3050

B HFC

SWEUF 0.754 0.751 0.748 0.741 0.720 0.695 0.665 0.632 0.592 0.546 0.500 0.490

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,158 2,162 2,178 2,218 2,280 2,607 2,974 3,050

B CO 2

SWEUF 0.754 0.751 0.748 0.741 0.721 0.696 0.665 0.633 0.592 0.546 0.500

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 2,249 2,249 2,249 2,250 2,251 2,255 2,272 2,319 2,447 2,781 3,129

Equipment Class Combination (Total)

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.405 0.350 0.300 0.290

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 2071 2074 2079 2093 2115 2131 2167 2229 2463 2482 3013 3123

Combo A HFC

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.400 0.350 0.300 0.290

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 2230 2235 2242 2259 2280 2290 2301 2313 2342 2445 2984 3096

Combo A CO 2

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.400 0.350 0.300 0.290

10-14Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 2288 2293 2302 2321 2342 2353 2364 2378 2407 2519 3041 3150

Combo B HFC

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.410

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 1854 1855 1858 1868 1891 1910 1973 2088 2543

Combo B CO 2

SWEUF 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.410

Avg. Installed

Price (2013$) 1911 1912 1915 1926 1949 1971 2032 2135 2561

SWEUF = shipment

- weighted energy use factor

As discussed in chapter 8, examination of historical price data for certain appliances and

equipment that have been subject to energy conservation standards indicates that the assumption

of constant real prices and costs may, in many cases, over

- estimate long

- term appliance and

equipment price trends.

For this preliminary analysis for refrigerated beverage vending machines , DOE applied

the default equipment price trend based on an exponential fit function derived using historical

data on refrigeration equipment Producer Price Index ( PPI ) ( described in chapter 8 ) to project the

prices of refrigerated beverage vending machines sold in each year in the forecast period ( 201 9

-

20 48 ). DOE applied the same price factors to project prices for each equipment class at each

considered EL

. The average annual rate of price decline in the default case is 1.48 percent.

To investigate the impact of different equipment price projections on the cu stomer net

present value (NPV) for different efficiency levels, DOE also considered two alternative price

trends. Details on how these alternative price trends were developed are documented in appendix

10

- B which also presents the results of the sensitivit y analysis.

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit

The average annual operating cost includes the costs for energy, repair, and maintenance.

As described in chapter 8, DOE assumed that repair and maintenance costs were lower at

increased efficiency level s in some equipment classes (specifically, B and Combination)

. Therefore, f or all the considered equipment , DOE determined the per

- unit annual savings in

operating cost based on the savings in energy costs plus repair and maintenance costs attributable

to a standard. DOE determined the per

- unit annual savings in energy cost by multiplying the per

unit annual savings in energy consumption developed for each equipment class by the

appropriate energy price. As described in chapter 8, DOE forecasted energy price s based on

projected average annual price changes in EIA’s AEO201 4

.

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Increases in Equipmen t Cost

The total annual increase in equipment cost for any given standards case is the product of

the average cost increase per unit due to the standar d and the number of units of each vintage

10-15shipped. This method accounts for differences in equipment cost from year to year. The equation

for determining the total annual increase in equipment cost for a given standards case, which was

shown in section 10. 4.1, is repeated here.



## ∑

y y y UTIC SHIP TIC × =

As with the calculation of the NES, DOE did not calculate total annual equipment costs

using base

- case shipments. To avoid including savings due to displaced shipments (by customers

deciding not to buy higher

- cost equipment ), DOE used the standards

- case projection of

shipments and, in turn, the standards

- case stock, to calculate equipment costs.

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost

The total annual savings in operating cost for any given standards c ase is the product of

the annual savings in operating cost per unit attributable to the standard and the number of units

of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in annual savings in operating cost from

year to year. The equation for determini ng the total annual savings in operating cost for a given

standards case, which was presented in section 10.4.1, is repeated here.



## ∑

V V UOCS STOCK OCS × =

10.4.2.5 Discount Factor

DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the

present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

) yp y (

_ ) r ( DF

+ 1 1

=

Where:

r = discount rate,

y = year in which the monetary value exists, and

y

P = year in which the present value is being determined.

Although DOE used customer discount rates to determine the life

- cycle cost of

refrigerated beverage vending machines (chapter 8), it used national discount rates to calculate

national NPV. DOE estimated NPV using both a 3

- percent and a 7

- percent real discount rate, in

accor dance with the Office of Management and Budget’s guidance to Federal agencies on the

development of regulatory analysis, particularly section E therein: Identifying and Measuring

Benefits and Costs

. 2 DOE defined the present year as 20 1 3

.

10.4.2.6 Present Value of C osts

The present value of increased equipment costs is the annual total cost increase in each

year (the difference between a standards case and the base case), discounted to the present

, and

summed throughout the period in which DOE is c onsidering the inst allation of equipment ( 201 9

10-16through 20 48 ). DOE calculated annual increases in installed cost as the difference in total

equipment cost for new appliances purchased each year, multiplied by the shipments in the

standards case.

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings

The present value of savings in operating cost is the annual savings on operating cost (the

difference between the base case and a standards case), discounted to the present and summed

from the effective date to the time when the last unit installed in 20 4 8 is retired from service.

Savings are decreases in operating cost associated with t he higher energy efficiency of

equipment purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total annual savings in

operating cost are the savings per unit multipli ed by the number of units of each vintage that

survive in a particular year.

10.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

The NIA model produces estimates of the NES and NPV attributable to a given

efficiency level. The inputs to the NIA model were discussed in sections 10.3.2 ( inputs to NES)

and 10.4.2 ( inputs to NPV ). DOE generated the NES and NPV results using a Microsoft Excel

spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet

( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/73 ). Details

regarding and instructions for using the spreadsheet are provided in appendix 10

- A

.

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

Table 10.5

. 1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA model

.

10-17Table 10.5

. 1 Inputs to Calculation of National Energy Savings and Net Present Value

Input Description

Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model. (See chapter 9.)

Compliance date of standard 2019

Base

- case forecasted efficiencies See section 10.2.

Standards

- case efficiencies See section 10.2.

Annual energy consumption per unit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of SWEUF.

(See section 10.3.2. 3 .)

Total installed cost per unit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of the

efficiency distribution. (See section 10.4.2.1.)

Energy cost per unit Annual weighted

- aver age values are a function of annual

energy consumption per unit and energy prices. (See chapter

8 for energy prices.)

Repair and maintenance costs per

unit Repair cost and maintenance costs vary with efficiency level

for some equipment classe s

. (See chapter 8. )

Forecast of energy prices Energy prices: EIA AEO20 1 4 forecasts (to 20 40 ) and

extrapolation thereafter. (See chapter 8.)

S ite

- to

- source conversion factor A time

- series conversion factor that includes electric

generation, transmission, and distribution losses. Conversion,

which changes yearly, is generated by DOE

- EIA’s NEMS*

program.

Discount rates 3% and 7% real.

Present year Future expenses are discounted to 20 1 3

. * Chapter 15, Utility Impact Analysis, provides more detail on the N ational Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

10.5.2 Annual Costs and Savings

Figure 10.5

. 1 illustrates the basic inputs to the calculation of NPV by showing the non

discounted annual increases in equipment cost and annual savings in operating cost at the

national level for efficien cy level 5 for equipment class A subcategory HFC refrigerated

beverage vending machines . The figure also shows the net savings, which is the difference

between the savings and costs for each year. The annual increase in equipment cost is the tota l

cost for equipment purchased each year in the forecast period. The annual savings in operating

cost applies to equipment operating in each year. The NPV is the difference between the

cumulative annual discounted savings and cumulative annual discounted c osts. Figure 10.5

. 1

shows, as an example, non

- discounted annual increases in installed cost and savings in operating

cost for equipment class A subcategory HFC at effi ciency level 5 ; DOE could create figures like

Figure 10.5

. 1 for each of the considered efficiency levels for each equipment subcategory

.

10-18Figure 10.5

. 1 Non

- Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in Operating

Cost for Equipment Class A HFC Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines

at Efficiency Level 5

10.5.3 National Energy Savings Results by Energy Efficienc y Level

This section provides the cumulative national energy savings that DOE calculated for

each of the ELs analyzed for refrigerated beverage vending machines

. Note that values in Table

10.5

. 2 and Table 10.5

. 3 are in quads, whereas value s in Table 10.5

. 4 are in 10

- 3 quads. -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0Million 2013$

Year Operating Cost Savings

Increased Equipment

Cost

Net Savings

10-19Table 10.5

. 2 Equipment Class A : Cumulative NES Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Results (quads)

Efficiency Level HFC CO 2 Total

1 0.0003 0.0003 0.0007

2 0.0038 0.0038 0.0076

3 0.0088 0.0088 0.0176

4 0.0154 0.0153 0.0306

5 0.0223 0.0222 0.0446

6 0.0292 0.0290 0.0582

7 0.0358 0.0355 0.0713

8 0.0422 0.0420 0.0842

9 0.0460 0.0432 0.0892

Table 10.5

. 3 Equipment Class B : Cumulative NES Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Results (quads)

Efficiency Level HFC CO 2 Total

1 0.0005 0.0005 0.0009

2 0.0009 0.0009 0.0018

3 0.0020 0.0020 0.0040

4 0.0053 0.0053 0.0106

5 0.0092 0.0092 0.0184

6 0.0141 0.0140 0.0281

7 0.0192 0.0191 0.0383

8 0.0255 0.0253 0.0509

9 0.0323 0.0320 0.0643

10 0.0387 0.0385 0.0773

11 0.0401 0.0401

10-20Table 10.5

. 4 Equipment Class Combo A and Combo B: Cumulative NES Full

- Fuel

- Cycle

Results (10 - 3 q uads)

Efficiency

Level Combo

- A HFC Combo

- A CO 2 Combo

- B HFC Combo

- B CO 2 Total

1 0.417 0.416 0.323 0.321 1.477

2 0.835 0.831 0.645 0.642 2.954

3 1.252 1.247 0.968 0.964 4.430

4 1.669 1.662 1.290 1.285 5.907

5 1.878 1.870 1.452 1.446 6.646

6 2.087 2.078 1.613 1.606 7.384

7 2.296 2.286 1.774 1.767 8.123

8 2.504 2.494 1.867 1.865 8.730

9 2.713 2.701 5.414

10 2.893 2.881 5.774

11 2.920 2.909 5.829

10.5.4 Customer Net Present Value Results by Energy Efficiency Level

Table 10.5

. 5 through Table 10.5

. 10 s how the cumulative NPV associated with each of the

considered ELs fo r each refrigerated beverage vending machine equipment class. Results in

Table 10.5

. 5

, Table 10.5

. 7 , and Table 10.5

. 9 are shown as the discounted dollar values using a

3% discount rate, and results in Table 10.5

. 6

, Table 10.5

. 8 , and Table 10.5

. 10 are shown as the

discounted dollar value of the n et savings using a 7% discount rate

. Note that values in Table

10.5

. 5 through Table 10.5

. 8 are in billion 2013 dollars, whereas values in Table 10.5

. 9 and Table

10.5

. 10 are in million 2013 dollars.

10-21Table 10.5

. 5 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment Class A

Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines , 3

- Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency

Level HFC CO 2 Total

Billion 2013 dollars

1 0.0017 0.0017 0.0034

2 0.0196 0.0194 0.0391

3 0.0440 0.0431 0.0870

4 0.0680 0.0641 0.1320

5 0.0890 0.0847 0.1737

6 0.0793 0.0525 0.1318

7 0.0384 0.0151 0.0535

8

- 0.0015

- 0.0214

- 0.0229

9

- 0.0250

- 0.0286

- 0.0535

Table 10.5

. 6 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment Class A

Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines , 7

- Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency

Level HFC CO 2 Total

Billion 2013 dollars

1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0014

2 0.0079 0.0078 0.0157

3 0.0175 0.0170 0.0345

4 0.0259 0.0237 0.0496

5 0.0323 0.0299 0.0622

6 0.0220 0.0076 0.0296

7

- 0.0050

- 0.0173

- 0.0223

8

- 0.0312

- 0.0415

- 0.0727

9

- 0.0466

- 0.0463

- 0.0929

10-22Table 10.5

. 7 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment Class B

Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines , 3

- Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency

Level HFC CO 2 Total

Billion 2013 dollars

1 0.0025 0.0025 0.0049

2 0.0049 0.0049 0.0098

3 0.0106 0.0106 0.0212

4 0.0282 0.0280 0.0561

5 0.0479 0.0476 0.0955

6 0.0690 0.0681 0.1371

7 0.0840 0.0807 0.1647

8 0.0982 0.0741 0.1723

9 0.0329 0.0077 0.0407

10

- 0.0420

- 0.0601

- 0.1022

11

- 0.0572

- 0.0572

Table 10.5

. 8 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment Class B

Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines , 7

- Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency

Level HFC CO 2 Total

Billion 2013 dollars

1 0.0010 0.0010 0.0020

2 0.0020 0.0020 0.0040

3 0.0043 0.0043 0.0086

4 0.0115 0.0114 0.0229

5 0.0194 0.0192 0.0386

6 0.0273 0.0268 0.0542

7 0.0318 0.0300 0.0618

8 0.0349 0.0219 0.0569

9

- 0.0054

- 0.0188

- 0.0242

10

- 0.0506

- 0.0599

- 0.1105

11

- 0.0597

- 0.0597

10-23Table 10.5

. 9 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment Class

Combination Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines, 3

- Percent Discount

Rate

Efficiency

Level Combo

- A HFC Combo

- A CO 2 Combo

- B

HFC Combo

- B

CO 2 Total

M illion 20 13 dollars

1 2.22 2.20 1.73 1.72 7.87

2 4.41 4.38 3.44 3.42 15.66

3 6.56 6.49 5.12 5.08 23.25

4 8.67 8.59 6.71 6.66 30.62

5 9.72 9.63 7.45 7.38 34.18

6 10.77 10.68 7.91 7.85 37.21

7 11.82 11.70 8.03 8.05 39.60

8 12.76 12.63 5.65 5.89 36.93

9 13.21 13.02 26.23

10 10.71 10.66 21.36

11 10.16 10.14 20.29

10-24Table 10.5

. 10 Cumulative Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for Equipment Class

Combination Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machines, 7

- Percent Discount

Rate

Efficiency

Level Combo

- A

HFC Combo

- A

CO 2 Combo

- B

HFC Co mbo

- B

CO 2 Total

M illion 20 13 dollars

1 0.90 0.89 0.71 0.70 3.21

2 1.80 1.78 1.41 1.39 6.37

3 2.66 2.62 2.09 2.06 9.43

4 3.51 3.46 2.71 2.68 12.36

5 3.93 3.88 3.00 2.96 13.77

6 4.35 4.29 3.14 3.10 14.88

7 4.77 4.70 3.08 3.09 15.64

8 5.13 5.05 1.72 1.85 13.75

9 5.22 5.12 10.34

10 3.72 3.70 7.42

11 3.40 3.39 6.80

10-25REFERENCES

1 Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 20 14 with Projections to 20 40

. April 2014. U.S. Department of Energy

, Washington, DC

.

2 Off ice of Management and Budget. OMB Circular A

- 4, Regulatory Analysis

. 2003. OMB:

Washington, D .C. September 17, 2003.

< www.whitehouse.gov/omb/assets/omb/circulars/a004/a

- 4.pdf >

10-26