# Appendix C.3
On-Road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation(This page intentionally left blank)On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation i Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE ............................................................................................. 1

2.0 OVERALL METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................ 1 2.1 Emission Estimation Approach ........................................................................................... 1
3.0 QUALITY ASSURANCE MEASURES .................................................................................. 2

4.0 DISCUSSION OF ON-ROA D MOBILE SOURCES .............................................................. 3 4.1 Introduction and Scope ................................................................................................... ..... 3 4.2 MOVES Input Assumptions ................................................................................................ 4 4.2.1 Speed Assumptions ....................................................................................................... . 4 4.2.2 Vehicle Age Distribution ............................................................................................. 10 4.2.3 Vehicle Mix Assumptions ............................................................................................ 11 4.2.4 Disaggregating State Specific Information .................................................................. 12 4.2.5 Vehicles/Equipment: On-Road Vehicle Equipment ................................................... 16 4.2.6 Road Type .............................................................................................................. ..... 17 4.2.7 Pollutants and Processes ............................................................................................. 1 8 4.2.8 Temperature, Relative Humidity and Barometric Pressure Assumptions ................... 18 4.2.9 Source Type Population .............................................................................................. 18 4.2.10 Vehicle Inspection and Mainte nance Program Assumptions .................................... 21 4.2.11 Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) Assumptions ................................................................. 21 4.2.12 Diesel Sulfur Content Assumptions ........................................................................... 22 4.2.13 Fuel (Formulation and Supply) ................................................................................. 22 4.3 VMT Assumptions ........................................................................................................... ... 22
4.4 Estimated Emissions From Mobile Sources ...................................................................... 25 4.5 Motor Vehicle Emissions Budget for Conformity ............................................................. 26 4.5.1 Transportation Conformity .......................................................................................... 26 4.5.2 Pollutants to be Considered ......................................................................................... 26 4.5.3 Safety Margin ........................................................................................................... .... 33 4.5.4 Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets ................................................................................ 35

5.0 DATA USED ................................................................................................................ ......... 39
5.1 North Carolina’s Vehicle Mix ........................................................................................... 3 9
5.1.1 2008 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 39 5.1.2 2011 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 40 5.1.3 2014 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 41 5.1.4 2017 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 42 5.1.5 2021 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 43On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation ii Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 5.2 Meteorology ............................................................................................................... ......... 44 5.2.1 Catawba County Temperature and Relative Humidity ................................................ 44 5.2.2 Davidson and Guilford County Temper ature and Relative Humidity ......................... 50

LIST OF TABLES
Table 4.2.1-1 Modeled Area Speeds fo r Davidson County (miles/hour) ...................................... 5 Table 4.2.1-2 Rural Area Speeds for Davidson County (miles/hour) ............................................ 5 Table 4.2.1-3 Modeled Area Speeds for Guilford County (miles/hour) ........................................ 6 Table 4.2.1-4 Modeled Area Speeds fo r Catawba County (miles/hour) ........................................ 6 Table 4.2.1-5 Rural Area Speeds for Catawba County (miles/hour) ............................................. 7 Table 4.2.4-1 Mapping of HPMS data to MOBILE6.2 Categories .............................................. 12 Table 4.2.4-2 Calculation of New 2008 Stat ewide Rural Interstate Vehicle Mix ....................... 14 Table 4.2.4-3 Calculation of 2008 Statewid e Rural Interstate Vehicle Mix ................................ 16 Table 4.3-1 Modeled Vehicle Miles Traveled for Davidson County ........................................... 23 Table 4.3-2 Vehicle Miles Tr aveled for Davidson County Rural Donut Area ............................. 23 Table 4.3-3 Vehicle Miles Trav eled for Guilford County ............................................................ 24 Table 4.3-4 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Catawba County Modeled Portion ................................ 24 Table 4.3-5 Vehicle Miles Tr aveled for Catawba County Rural Donut Area .............................. 25 Table 4.4-1 Emissions by County and year .................................................................................. 25 Table 4.5.3-1 Safety Margin for Hickory PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area ......................................... 34 Table 4.5.3-2 Safety Margin for Triad PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area ............................................. 34 Table 4.5.4-1 On-Road Mobile Source PM 2.5 Emissions ............................................................ 35 Table 4.5.4-2 On-Road Mobile Source NOx Emissions............................................................... 36 Table 4.5.4-3 Catawba County MVEB ........................................................................................ 36 Table 4.5.4-4 Davidson County MVEB ...................................................................................... 36 Table 4.5.4-5 Guilford County MVEB ........................................................................................ 37 Table 4.5.4-6 County Level PM 2.5 MVEB Safety Margin for 2011 and 2021 ............................ 37 Table 4.5.4-7 County Level NOx MVEB Safety Margin for 2011 and 2021 .............................. 37 Table 4.5.4-8 New Safety Margins for the Hickory PM 2.5 nonattainment area ........................... 38 Table 4.5.4-9 New Safety Margins for the Triad PM 2.5 nonattainment area ............................... 38

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 4.5.2-2. North Carolina’s 2009 Statewide SO2 Emissions .............................................. 30 Figure 4.5.2-3. Hickory Area 2009 Primary PM 2.5 Emissions ..................................................... 31 Figure 4.5.2-4. Catawba County Hourly PM 2.5 Emissions ........................................................... 33On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 1 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 

### 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE
This fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on-road mobile source documentation covers the Hickory PM 2.5 nonattainment area (Catawba County) an d the Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point PM 2.5 nonattainment area (referred to as the Tria d area and consisting of Davidson and Guilford Counties). On-road mobile sources produce ni trogen oxides (NOx), particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM 2.5 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), along with a host of other pollutants. Emissions of these pollutants are estimated in the mobile source inventory required for the maintenance plan. Mobile sources comprise ab out 74% of the NOx emissions in the Hickory and Triad fine particulate matter nonattainment ar eas. The scope of this document covers only the procedures associated with on-road mobile sources.



### 2.0 OVERALL METHODOLOGY

2.1 Emission Estimation Approach
Mobile source emissions are estimated by the methodologies suggested in the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) do cuments Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matt er National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations , Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for State Implementation Plan Development, Tran sportation Conformity, and Other Purposes ( EPA420-B-09-046, December 2009), and Technical Gu idance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State Implem entation Plans and Transportation Conformity

( EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010).

In December 2009, the USEPA released a new model for mobile sources. MOVES (MO tor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) is a computer pr ogram designed by the USEPA to estimate air pollution emissions from mobile sources. MOVE S2010 (hereafter referred to as MOVES) replaces the USEPA’s previous emissions model for on-road mobile sources, MOBILE6.2. MOVES is used to estimate exhaust and evapor ative emissions as well as brake and tire wear emissions from all types of on-road vehicles.

Compared to MOBILE6.2, MOVES incorporates substantial ne w emissions test data and accounts for changes in vehicle technology and regul ations as well as im proved understanding of in-use emission levels and the factors that influence them. Also, MOVES has a completely new database-centered software framework.On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 2 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 There is currently a two year grace period for transportation conformity purposes for use of MOVES as the new regulatory model. However, the North Carolina Division of Air Quality (NCDAQ) committed to provide supp lemental data to the Annual PM 2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan when MO VES was released and approved for regulatory
purposes.

The estimation of emissions from mobile sour ces involves multiplying an activity level by an emission factor. Previously this was done usi ng MOBILE6.2 to calculate an emissions factor and multiplying it by the vehicle miles travelled (VMT). One important new feature of MOVES is the option to calculate emissions either as inventor y estimates (total emissions in units of mass) or, emission rates (emissions per unit of distance for running emissions or per vehicle for starts, extended idle and resting evaporative emissions) in a look-up table format.

Use of the inventory option simplifies the post-processing of MOVES output compared to MOBILE6.2, but it requires VMT and vehicle population data as an input to MOVES. When using the emission rates option, VMT and vehicle population are applied during post-processing external to MOVES. Either approach can be used to develop emissions estimates for state implementation plans (SIPs) and regional conformity analyses. If inve ntory option is selected, MOVES provides emissions estimates as mass, using VMT and vehicle population entered by the user. If emission rate option is selected, MOVES provides emissi on rates as mass per unit of activity. The emission rates option produces a look-up table of emission rates that must be post-processed to produce an inventory. The NCDAQ is electing to run the model in the inventory mode due to faster model run times and fewer post-processing requirements.

The USEPA has performed preliminary compar ison of MOVES2010 to MOBILE6.2 using local data for several different urban areas, varying the local data used by fleet distribution, fraction of light- and heavy-duty VMT, local fuel specifications, meteorology, and other input factors. In general, volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissi ons are lower when using MOVES2010 when compared to MOBILE6.2, while NOx and partic ulate matter (PM) emi ssions are higher.



### 3.0 QUALITY ASSURANCE MEASURES
The quality assurance (QA) for the highway mo bile source category can be broken into two components: 1) input files and 2) MOVES outpu ts/summaries. Each of these components is detailed in the paragraphs below.

After the speed and VMT information is acqui red from the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), the speed information is checked for reasonableness against previousOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 3 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 sets of speeds for the areas. Once the speeds are deemed reasonable, the NCDAQ enters the speed information into MOVES input files. In a ddition to the speed inform ation, the user enters data to characterize local mete orology, fleet and activity informa tion. All input files are checked against a “key” with the original source of the information. This QA step is always performed by a person other than the one who generated the input files. If any discrepancies are found, they are noted back to the person who genera ted the input files for correction.

Once the input files have passed through the QA procedure, MOVES is run to generate emissions.



### 4.0 DISCUSSION OF ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES
On-road mobile sources produce NOx, PM 2.5 , and SO 2 , along with a host of other pollutants. Emissions of these three pollutants are estimated in the on-road mobile source inventory for the maintenance plan. The objective of the following section is to describe the source category, the input files, and the emissions estimation pro cedures. This section also includes tables summarizing the estimated emissions for the projection years by county.

4.1 Introduction and Scope

On-road mobile sources are considered as those vehicles that travel on the roadways. On-road mobile sources are a major contributor to NOx em issions in North Carolina and a less significant contributor to primary PM 2.5 and SO 2. Emissions from motor vehi cles occur throughout the day while the vehicle is in motion, at idle, parke d, and during refueling. All of these emissions processes need to be estimated in order to properly reflect the to tal emissions from this source category.

On-road mobile source emissions comprise a small percentage of the total fine particulate matter emissions for all of North Carolin a. Particulate emissions from motor vehicles only occur while the vehicle is moving or idling. These emissions are direct tailpipe (f rom both gas and diesel fuel vehicles), sulfate, tire w ear, and brake wear. Only direct particulate emissions processes will be estimated in order to properly reflect the total fine particulate matter emissions from this source category.

A very important component of the highway mob ile emission estimation process is interagency consultation. The primary transportation pa rtners involved in th e Hickory and Triad redesignation interage ncy consultation process included: NCDOT, USEPA, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Greensboro Urban Area Municipal Planning Organization (MPO),On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 4 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 High Point Urban Area MPO, Pied mont Triad Rural Planning Orga nization (RPO), and Greater Hickory MPO. Specifically the NCDOT was cons ulted for input data such as speeds and VMT for the rural counties where the Hickory and Tr iad Urban Travel Demand Models (TDMs) did not cover. An interagency call was held April 19, 2010 to discuss the need to update the motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) for the Greate r Hickory and Triad areas. The NCDAQ had the data originally provided for the redesignation for the years 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021. The NCDAQ received updated speeds and VM T for the Triad (Davidson and Guilford Counties), in February 2009, as well as, upda ted speeds and VMT for Catawba County from NCDOT in April 2009. The NCDAQ discussed the differences anticipated in the emissions by running the MOVES model and the possible necessity to update the MVEBs in the Redesignation Package before the MOVES model would be required to be used for conformity purposes. The interagency partners agreed that the activity data that the NCDAQ had were the latest and should be used as inputs to the MOVES model.

4.2 MOVES Input Assumptions
Due to the size and the complexity of the MOVE S input and output files, the MOVES input files and output files will be provided electronically.

4.2.1 Speed Assumptions Vehicle power, speed, and acceleration have a si gnificant effect on vehicle emissions. MOVES models those emission effects by assigning activity to specific drive cycles or operating mode distributions. The distribution of vehicle hours traveled (VHT) by average speed is used to determine an appropriate operating mode distribution. The Average Speed Distribution importer in MOVES calls for a speed distribution in VHT in 16 speed bi ns, by each road type, source type, and hour of the day included in the analysis. The methodology used to develop the average speed distribution inputs is documented below.

The speeds for the urban areas covered by a TDM were provided by the MPOs. Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation (PART) pr ovided modeled speeds for the entire county of Guilford and the modeled portion of Davidson Count y for the desired maintenance plan years. Speeds for rural areas in Davidson and the urban and rural areas in Catawba were generated by NCDOT. Modeled speeds for ur ban areas of Catawba County we re received for the years 2007, 2015, 2025, and 2035, and interpolated to the year s needed. Tables 4.2.1-1 through 4.2.1-5 provide a summary of the average speeds in miles per hour (mph).On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 5 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.2.1-1 Modeled Area Speeds for Davidson County (miles/hour) Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 68 68 68 68 67 Urban Freeway or Expressway 57 57 56 56 55 Urban Other Principal Arterial 39 39 38 38 39 Urban Minor Arterial 40 40 40 40 39 Urban Collector 42 41 42 42 41 Urban Local 46 45 45 45 44 Rural Interstate 69 68 68 68 68 Rural Other Principal Arterial --- --- --- 35 35 Rural Minor Arterial 51 51 51 51 50 Rural Major Collector 43 43 42 42 41 Rural Minor Collector 49 48 48 48 48 Rural Local 49 49 48 48 48

Table 4.2.1-2 Rural Area Speeds for Davidson County (miles/hour) Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 62 63 62 62 62 Urban Freeway or Expressway 56 56 56 56 56 Urban Other Principal Arterial 28 29 28 28 29 Urban Minor Arterial 32 32 32 32 32 Urban Collector 31 31 31 31 31 Urban Local 31 31 31 31 31 Rural Interstate 65 66 65 65 65 Rural Other Principal Arterial 45 46 45 45 45 Rural Minor Arterial 44 44 44 44 44 Rural Major Collector 43 43 43 43 43 Rural Minor Collector 42 42 42 42 42 Rural Local 42 42 42 42 42On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 6 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.2.1-3 Modeled Area Speeds for Guilford County (miles/hour) Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 55 55 56 56 55 Urban Freeway or Expressway 51 51 50 50 51 Urban Other Principal Arterial 39 39 39 39 39 Urban Minor Arterial 37 37 38 38 38 Urban Collector 37 37 37 37 37 Urban Local 34 34 34 34 34 Rural Interstate 60 59 58 58 57 Rural Other Principal Arterial 47 48 50 50 49 Rural Minor Arterial 43 42 44 44 46 Rural Major Collector 46 46 46 46 45 Rural Minor Collector 47 47 47 47 46 Rural Local 43 42 46 46 45

Table 4.2.1-4 Modeled Area Speeds for Catawba County (miles/hour) Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 60 59 57 55 52 Urban Freeway or Expressway 46 46 45 45 44 Urban Other Principal Arterial 34 33 32 31 30 Urban Minor Arterial 34 33 32 31 30 Urban Collector 36 35 34 33 32 Urban Local 38 37 36 35 33 Rural Interstate 64 63 62 60 56 Rural Other Principal Arterial 59 59 58 58 57 Rural Minor Arterial 42 41 40 39 38 Rural Major Collector 43 43 42 42 41 Rural Minor Collector 37 36 35 35 34 Rural Local 42 42 41 41 40On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 7 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.2.1-5 Rural Area Speeds for Catawba County (miles/hour) Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 63 63 63 63 63 Urban Freeway or Expressway 56 56 56 56 56 Urban Other Principal Arterial 29 29 29 29 29 Urban Minor Arterial 32 32 32 32 32 Urban Collector 31 31 31 31 31 Urban Local 31 31 31 31 31 Rural Interstate 63 63 63 63 63 Rural Other Principal Arterial 46 46 46 46 46 Rural Minor Arterial 44 44 44 44 44 Rural Major Collector 43 43 43 43 43 Rural Minor Collector 42 42 42 42 42 Rural Local 42 42 42 42 42

MOVES uses four different roadway type catego ries that are affected by the average speed distribution input: rural restricted access, rural unrestricted acce ss, urban restricted access, and urban unrestricted access (these road types are discussed in mo re detail in Section 4.2.6). In MOVES, local roadways are included with arte rials and collectors in the urban and rural unrestricted access roads category. In MOBILE6.2, lo cal roadways were a separate category with a fixed speed of 12.9 mph. For MOVES, the US EPA recommends that the average speed distribution for local roadway activ ity be included as part of a weighted distribution of average speed across all unrestricted road s along with the distri bution of average speeds for arterials and
connectors.

When only a single average speed is available for a specific road type and that average speed is not identical to the average speed in a partic ular speed bin, MOVES gui dance stipulates that users should apply the following formula for cr eating the appropriate speed distribution among two adjacent speed bins.

The general formula is:

VHT Fraction A in Speed Bin with closest aver age speed lower than observed average speed + VHT Fraction B in Speed Bin with closest average speed higher that observed average speed = 1On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 8 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 VHT Fraction A (low bin) = 1 – [(observed average speed – average speed of lower speed bin) / (average speed of higher speed bin – average speed of lower speed bin)]

VHT Fraction B (high bin) = 1- [(average speed of higher sp eed bin – observed average speed) / (average speed of higher speed bin – average speed of lower speed bin)]

Or more simply: VHT Fracti on B = 1 – VHT fraction A

The following is an example of applying the abov e equations. If the single average speed for a roadway is 58 miles per hour, the average speed distribution will be spli t between the 55 and 60 mph speed bins. The appropriate VHT fracti ons are found with the following equations:

VHT fraction A (low bin) = 1 – [(58 mph Avg. Speed – 55 mph (B in Speed)) / (60 mph (Bin Speed) – 55 mph (Bin Speed)] = 0.4

VHT fraction B (high bin) = 1 – [(60 mph (Bin Speed) – 58 mph Avg. Speed) / (60 mph (Bin Speed) – 55 mph (Bin Speed)] = 0.6

VHT Fraction A (low bin) + VHT Fraction B (high bin) = 1 0.4 + 0.6 = 1

As stated above, MOVES uses onl y four different roadway types: rural restrict ed access, rural unrestricted access, urban restricted access and urba n unrestricted access. This means that the speeds for multiple roadway types need to be combined into the appropriate speed bins. To create the speed bin fractions for combined roadways the VMT for each road way is used to weight the speed bin fraction. For example, below are speeds and VMT for urban restricted access road types:

Road type Speed (miles/hour) VMT (hourly miles) Urban Interstate 63 250,000 Urban Freeway 56 100,000

The first step is to determine the speed bin fractions for each road type separately. For the urban interstate road type, the speed 63 is split between the MOVES speed bins of 60 and 65 as described above, which results in the VHT fr actions of 0.4 and 0.6 for speed bins 60 and 65, respectively. Similarly, the speed for the urban freeway road type (56 miles/hour) is splitOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 9 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 between the MOVES speed bins of 55 and 60 a nd results in the VHT fractions of 0.8 and 0.2, respectively.

The next step requires road type VMT to wei gh the VHT Fractions so that the final MOVES speed bin fractions can be developed. The VHT Fraction, specific to the road type and speed bin, are multiplied by the corresponding hourly VM T. These hourly totals are divided by the total VMT for that hour for the road type cate gory (in this example, urban restricted access includes urban interstate and urban freeway). The following equation is used to calculate the combined speed bin fractions:

Where: RT = the HPMS road type

In this example, the HPMS road types are urba n interstate (UI) and urban freeway (UF) and the speed bins are 55, 60 and 65. The table below summarizes the speed bin fractions for this example.

HPMS Road Type Speed Bin 55 Speed Bin 60 Speed Bin 65 Urban Interstate 0.0 0.4 0.6 Urban Freeway 0.8 0.2 0.0

Using the equation below, the final MOVES spee d bin fractions are calculated for the urban restricted access road type.

VHT (Speed Bin X) = [(VHT Fraction ( UI ) * hourly VMT ( UI ) ) + (VHT Fraction ( UF ) * hourly VMT ( UF ) )] (hourly VMT ( UI ) + hourly VMT ( UF ) )

VHT (Speed Bin 55) = [(0.0 * 250,000) + (0.8 * 100,000)] (250,000 + 100,000)
VHT ( S p eed Bin 55 ) = 0.2286

VHT (Speed Bin 60) = [(0.4 * 250,000) + (0.2 * 100,000)] (250,000 + 100,000)
VHT ( S p eed Bin 60 ) = 0.3428On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 10 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 VHT (Speed Bin 65) = [(0.6 * 250,000) + (0.0 * 100,000)] (250,000 + 100,000)
VHT ( S p eed Bin 65 ) = 0.4286

The sum of the VHT fractions for all speed bins w ithin a road type category must add up to 1.0. The hourly VHT fractions by speed bin and road type are then processed through a MOVES supplied converter to develop the speed di stribution file by ho ur and road type.

4.2.2 Vehicle Age Distribution The age distribution of vehicle fleets can vary si gnificantly from area to area. Fleets with a higher percentage of older vehicles will have higher emissions for two reasons. Older vehicles have typically been driven mo re miles and have experienced more deterioration in emission control systems. Additionally, a higher percentage of older vehicles also implies that there are more vehicles in the fleet that do not meet newer, more stringent emissions standards. Surveys of registration data indicate cons iderable local variability in vehicle age distributions.

For SIP and conformity purposes, the USEPA re commends and encourages states to develop local age distributions. The MOVES model categori zes the vehicle fleet in to different vehicle classes and more model years than MOBILE6.2. A typical vehi cle fleet includes a mix of vehicles of different ages. MOVES covers a 31 year range of vehicle ages, with vehicles 30 years and older grouped together. MOVES allows the user to specify the fraction of vehicles in each of 30 vehicle ages for each of the 13 source types in the model.

Local age distributions can be estimated from local vehicle registrati on data. The vehicle age distribution comes from annual registration data for North Carolina from the NCDOT. For this analysis, the age distribution was generated based on 2008 data, the la test available count data at the time. The NCDOT provided th e data based on the number of vehicle types per year from 1975 through 2008. The data obtained from the NC DOT has the vehicles greater than 25 years old combined and included as the 25 th model year. Additionally, the NCDOT data has the vehicle count information provided for nine vehi cle types; light duty ga s vehicles (LDGV), light duty diesel vehicles (LDDV), light duty gas tr ucks 1 (LDGT1), light dut y gas trucks 2 (LDGT2), light duty diesel trucks 1 (LDDT 1), light duty diesel trucks 2 (LDDT2), heavy duty gas vehicles (HDGV), heavy duty diesel vehi cles (HDDV) and motorcycles (MC). LDDT1 and LDDT2 are combined and labeled as light du ty diesel trucks (LDDT). Sin ce MOVES categorizes the vehicle fleet into different vehicle clas ses and more model years, the US EPA has created data convertersOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 11 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 that take registration distribution input files created for MOBILE6.2 and converts them to the appropriate age distribution input tables for MOVES.

4.2.3 Vehicle Mix Assumptions Vehicle mix or VMT mix is used by MOVES to convert annual VMT to VMT by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and VMT by road type di stribution. The vehicl e mix is developed by the same method used in MOBILE6.2, as outlined be low. The resulting file is then used in a MOVES supplied converter to develop the VM T by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and VMT by road type distribution.

The vehicle mix refers to the percentage of di fferent vehicle types on each of the 12 FHWA road types. These road types are listed above in th e speed assumptions secti on. It is critical for estimating on-road mobile source emissions in an area to use data that accurately reflects the vehicles types traveling on each of these different road types.

In August 2004, the USEPA released the guidance document EPA420-R-04-013
, Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation , which outlines how to convert the Highway Performance Monitoring Syst em (HPMS) traffic c ount data to MOBILE6.2 vehicle mix data

. Outlined below is the methodology us ed to convert the 13 HPMS vehicle types count data reported to FHWA and ge nerate a state spec ific vehicle mix.

The North Carolina HPMS data used to genera te the new statewide vehicle mix was based on 2008 data counts. This is the la test available statewide count information at the time of the modeling. Table 4.2.3-1 shows the pe rcent of vehicles per vehicle type for each of the 12 road classes.

Table 4.2.3-1 2008 North Carolina HPMS DataOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 12 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 4.2.4 Disaggregating State Specific Information

Section 4.1.5 of Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation , illustrates how to map the HPMS statew ide vehicle data to general MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. This mapping is outlined in Table 4.2.4-1 below:

Table 4.2.4-1 Mapping of HPMS data to MOBILE6.2 Categories HPMS Category General Category Motorcycle Motorcycle (MC) Passenger Car Passenger Car (LDV) Other 2-Axel, 4-Tire Vehicles Light Truck (LDT) Busses Bus (HDB)
All Other Trucks: Single unit, 2-axel, 6-tire Single unit, 3-axel Single unit, 4 or more axel Single trailer, 4 or fewer axel Single trailer, 5-axel Single trailer, 6 or more axel Multi-trailer, 5 or fewer axel Multi-trailer, 6-axel Multi-trailer, 7 or more axel Heavy Duty Truck (HDV)

The HPMS data in Table 4.2.3-1 was grouped into these five general categories for each road type. In order to expand the five general cat egories to the 16 vehicle types used in MOBILE6.2, the national average VMT fractions by each vehi cle class were used. The 2008 fractions were used since the state specific data is from 2008. The national av erage data was obtained from Table 4.1.2 in Technical Guidance on the Us e of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation . An example for rural interstates is illustrated below:

From Table 4.2.3-1 above:
Passenger Cars = 60.13% 5 axel Trailer = 17.65% Pickup Trucks = 13.72% 6 axel Trailer = 0.66% Bus = 1.04% 5 axel Multi Trailer = 0.51% 2 axel Trucks = 2.86% 6 axel Multi Trailer = 0.23% 3 axel Trucks = 0.75% 7 axel Multi Trailer = 0.15% 4 axel Trucks = 0.05% Motorcycles = 0.38% 4 axel Trailer = 1.86%On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 13 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Therefore, the five general categories are:

Motorcycles = 0.38% Light Duty Vehicles = 60.13% Light Duty Trucks = 13.72% Heavy Duty Buses = 1.04% Heavy Duty Vehicles = 24.73%

From Table 4.1.2 in Technical Guidance on th e Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation , the 2008 national average vehicle mix for light duty trucks, buses and heavy duty trucks are:

Light Duty Trucks Heavy Duty Trucks LDT1 = 0.0846 LDT2 = 0.2817 LDT3 = 0.0868 LDT4 = 0.0399 Total = 0.4930

Buses

Using the methodology described in Section 4.1.5 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparationthe new 2008 North Carolina statewide mix was developed. The basic formula for developing the mix is shown below,

Vehicle Type = (2008 M6.2 fraction for vehicle) X (2008 State total for group)

. (2008 M6.2 total for subcategory)

Table 4.2.4-2 displays the calculation for each vehi cle type for the 2008 rural interstate vehicle mix. HDV2B = 0.0388 HDV3 = 0.0038 HDV4 = 0.0031 HDV5 = 0.0024 HDV6 = 0.0087 HDV7 = 0.0102 HDV8A = 0.0111 HDV8B = 0.0397 Total = 0.1178 HDBS = 0.0020 HDBT = 0.0009 Total = 0.0029On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 14 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.2.4-2 Calculation of New 2008 St atewide Rural Interstate Vehicle Mix Vehicle

Type Calculation New 2008 Mix LDV = LDV = 0.6013 MC = MC = 0.0038
Light Duty Trucks LDT1 = 0.0846 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0235 LDT2 = 0.2817 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0784 LDT3 = 0.0868 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0242 LDT4 = 0.0399 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0111

Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV2B = 0.0388 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0815 HDV3 = 0.0038 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0080 HDV4 = 0.0031 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0065 HDV5 = 0.0024 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0050 HDV6 = 0.0087 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0183 HDV7 = 0.0102 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0214 HDV8A = 0.0111 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0233 HDV8B = 0.0397 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0833

Buses HDBS = 0.0020 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0072 HDBT = 0.0009 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0032

2008, 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2021 Statewide Vehicle Mix Once the 2008 new vehicle mix was generated, the other years were created using the methodology described in Section 4.1.4 in Tech nical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation . This method grouped light duty vehicles, light duty trucks and motorcycles together and heavy duty buses, heavy duty trucks and heavy dut y vehicles together. The combined percentages for th ese groupings are listed below.

Light Duty Vehicles = 74.23% Heavy Duty Vehicles = 25.77%On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 15 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 The MOBILE6.2 vehicle mix fractions for the year being developed were obt ained from Table 4.1.2 in Technical Guidance on the Us e of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation . The MOBILE6.2 vehicle fracti ons for 2008 are listed below.

Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Vehicles

The North Carolina 2008 vehicle mix was norma lized to the MOBILE6.2 fractions using the following formula:

Vehicle Type = (2008 M6 fraction for vehicle) X (2008 State total for group) (2008 M6 total for group)

Table 4.2.4-3 below displays the calculations used to generate the 2008 North Carolina vehicle mix for rural interstate. LDV = 0.3807 LDT1 = 0.0846 LDT2 = 0.2817 LDT3 = 0.0868 LDT4 = 0.0399 MC = 0.0056 Total = 0.8793 HDV2B = 0.0388 HDV3 = 0.0038 HDV4 = 0.0031 HDV5 = 0.0024 HDV6 = 0.0087 HDV7 = 0.0102 HDV8A = 0.0111 HDV8B = 0.0397 HDBS = 0.0020 HDBT = 0.0009 Total = 0.1207On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 16 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.2.4-3 Calculation of 2008 Statew ide Rural Interstate Vehicle Mix Vehicle

Type Calculation 2008 State Mix

Light Duty Vehicles LDV = 0.3807 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.3219 LDT1 = 0.0846 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.0715 LDT2 = 0.2817 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.2381 LDT3 = 0.0868 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.0734 LDT4 = 0.0399 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.0337 MC = 0.0038

Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV2B = 0.0388 x (0.2472/0.1178) = 0.0814 HDV3 = 0.0038 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0080 HDV4 = 0.0031 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0065 HDV5 = 0.0024 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0050 HDV6 = 0.0087 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0183 HDV7 = 0.0102 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0214 HDV8A = 0.0111 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0233 HDV8B = 0.0397 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0833 HDBS = 0.0020 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0072 HDBT = 0.0009 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0032

This method was used to generate all of the fu ture year vehicle mixes that were needed to compute the emission factors. The North Carolina transportation partners consider the statewide vehicle mix to be the best representation of the vehicle population in the Hickory and Triad nonattainment area. The vehicle mixes for all year s can be found in Section 5.1 of this appendix.

As stated earlier in this s ection, vehicle mix or VMT mix is used in MOVES converters to develop VMT by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and VMT by road type distribution, which are inputs to the model.

4.2.5 Vehicles/Equipment: On-R oad Vehicle Equipment The Vehicles/Equipment menu item and panel is us ed to specify the vehicle types that are included in the MOVES run. MOVES allows the user to select from among 13 “source useOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 17 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 types” (the terminology that MOVES uses to desc ribe vehicle types), an d four different fuel types (gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), and electricity).

For SIP and regional conformity analyses, users must select the appropriate fuel and vehicle type combinations in the On Road Vehicle Equipment pa nel to reflect the full ra nge of vehicles that will operate in the county. For this analysis all valid diesel, gasoline, and CNG (only transit buses) vehicle and fuel combinations were selected.

4.2.6 Road Type The Road Type Panel is used to define the ty pes of roads that are in cluded in the run. MOVES defines five differe nt Road Types:

• Off-Network (roadtype 1) – all locations wher e the predominant activity is vehicle starts, parking and idling (parking lots, truck stops, rest areas, freight or bus terminals)

• Rural Restricted Access (2) – rural highway s that can only be accessed by an on-ramp

• Rural Unrestricted Access (3) – all other ru ral roads (arterials, connectors, and local streets)

• Urban Restricted Access (4) – urban highway s or freeways that can only be accessed by an on-ramp

• Urban Unrestricted Access (5) – all other ur ban roads (arterials, connectors, and local streets)
Users should select the road types present in th e area being analyzed. The determination of rural or urban road types should be based on the HPMS classification of the roads in the county being analyzed.

The NCDAQ followed the USEPA guidance that st ates that all SIP and regional conformity analyses must include the Off-Network road type in order to account for emissions from vehicle starts, extended idle activity, and evaporative emissions (for hydrocarbons). The Off-Network road type is automatically selected when start or extended idle pollutant processes are chosen and must be selected for all evaporative emissions to be quantified. Off-Network activity in MOVES is primarily determined by the Source Type P opulation input, which is described in Section 4.2.9 of this document. Some evaporative emissions are estimated on roadways (i.e., roadtypes 2, 3, 4, and 5) to account for evaporative emissions that occur when vehicles are driving. All roads types are automatically selected when Refue ling emission processes are selected.On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 18 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 MOVES uses Road Type to assign default drive cycles to activity on road types 2, 3, 4, and 5. For example, for unrestricted access road types, MOVES uses drive cycles that assume stop and go driving, including multiple accelerations, dece lerations, and short pe riods of idling. For restricted access road types, MOVES uses drive cy cles that include a high er fraction of cruise activity with less time spent accel erating or idling, although some ra mp activity is also included.

4.2.7 Pollutants and Processes In MOVES, pollutant refers to particular types of pollutants or precursors of the pollutant, such as PM or NOx, while process refers to the mechanism by which emissions are created, such as running exhaust or start exhaust. Users must select all proce sses associated with a particular pollutant in order to account for all emissions of that pollutant. For example, there are 11 separate pollutant processes in MOVES for hydrocarbon emissions; all 11 mu st be selected when estimating hydrocarbon emissions for SIPs or regional conformity analyses. For this maintenance plan, the pollutants under consideration were NOx, PM 2.5, and SO 2 .
4.2.8 Temperature, Relative Humidity a nd Barometric Pressure Assumptions Local temperature and humidity data are required inputs for SIP and regional conformity analyses with MOVES. Ambient temperature is a key factor in estimating emission rates for on-road vehicles with substantial effects on most pollutant processes. Relative humidity is also important for estimating NOx emissions from motor vehicles. MOVES requires a temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) and relative humidity (in percent – 0 to 100 scale) for each hour selected in the Run Spec. For example, MOVES requires a 24-hour temperature and humidity profile to model a full day of emissions on an hourly basis. For mobile source emission estimates, the NCDAQ used 2008 monthly averages for the 24-hour temperature pr ofile from the Hickory Airport for Catawba County and the Triad Regional Airport for Davids on and Guilford Counties. Data were obtained by the NCDAQ meteorologists from North Carolina State Climate Retrieval and Observations Network of the Southeast Database (CRONOS). The temperature and relative humidity profiles as presented in the MOVES input files are listed in Section 5.2 for each month.

4.2.9 Source Type Population Source type (i.e., vehicle type) population is used by MOVES to cal culate start and evaporative emissions. In MOBILE6.2, starts and evaporative emissions were calculated as emission factors in grams per mile. As a result, start and evapor ative emissions were related to VMT. However, the relationship between VMT a nd vehicle starts or evapora tive emissions is not always consistent. Chained trips may involve multiple st arts with relatively low VMT. Evaporative emissions depend more on how long a vehicle is parked than how many m iles it is driven. In MOVES, start and resting evaporative emissions ar e related to the population of vehicles in anOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 19 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 area. Since vehicle type populati on directly determines start and evaporative emission, users must develop local data for this input.

MOVES uses a vehicle classificat ion system based on the way vehicles are classified in the Federal Highway Administration’s HPMS rather than on the way they are classified in the USEPA emissions regulations; thus making it easier for users to develop local data for MOVES. MOVES categorizes vehicles into 13 source types, which are subsets of 6 HPMS vehicle types in MOVES, as shown in the crosswalk in Table 4.2. 9-1. The USEPA believes th at states should be able to develop population data for many of these source type categories from state motor vehicle registration data (e.g., motorcycles, pa ssenger cars, passenger tr ucks, light commercial trucks) and from local transit agencies, school districts, bus companies, and refuse haulers (intercity, transit, and school buses, and refuse trucks). Th e NCDOT supplied the NCDAQ with source population data as descri bed in the following section.

Table 4.2.9-1 MOVES Source Types and HPMS Vehicle Types Source Type ID Source Types HPMS Vehicle Type ID HPMS Vehicle Type
11 Motorcycle 10 Motorcycles 21 Passenger Car 20 Passenger Cars 31 Passenger Truck 30 Other 2 axle-4 tire vehicles 32 Light Commercial Truck 30 Other 2 axle-4 tire vehicles 41 Intercity Bus 40 Buses 42 Transit Bus 40 Buses 43 School Bus 40 Buses 51 Refuse Truck 50 Single Unit Trucks 52 Single Unit Short-haul Truck 50 Single Unit Trucks 53 Single Unit Long-haul Truck 50 Single Unit Trucks 54 Motor Home 50 Single Unit Trucks 61 Combination Short-haul Truck 60 Combination Trucks 62 Combination Long-haul Truck 60 Combination Trucks

Source Type Population – Local Data

MOVES uses allocation factors to distribute emissions and ac tivity (such as vehicle type populations) to individual counties. The NCDAQ is committed to using repr esentative local data which will over ride MOVES default values th rough the County Data Manager. This decision was based on the fact that default allocation factors used in MOVES are derived from the VMT. Since the allocations are based on VMT, th e vehicle populations a llocated to counties are proportional to the VMT being allocated to that county. The NCDAQ corresponded withOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 20 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 USEPA Office of Transportation a nd Air Quality (OTAQ) to arri ve at an acceptable method to allocate current year as well as to project future year vehicle popul ations to source type populations. The NCDAQ believes that using MOVE S default vehicle population to estimate a fraction is the best method of ta king state specific vehi cle registration data and allocating county total vehicles to specific vehicle source types.

MOVES categorize vehicles into 13 source types, which are subsets of 6 HPMS vehicle types. Presently the NCDAQ is unable to develop county source type popul ation data for many of these source type categories based on how the NCDOT co llects vehicle registration data. The latest vehicle registration data broken dow n by county and towns is available by January of each year. Because the vehicle types database available from the NCDOT differs from what MOVES2010 expects, the NCDAQ relies on MOVES default fr actions and applies these fractions to the county total vehicle populat ion minus trailers. It is assumed that trailers do not have engines and do not generate VMT.

For future year MOVES runs, the NCDAQ needed to be able to grow the vehicle population reflective of the county of interest. From FHWA Highway Statistics grap h of Licensed Drivers, Vehicle Registrations, an d Resident Population (Figure 4.2.9-1), the NCDAQ has determined that growth in human population is a better in dicator of growth in vehicle ownership as compared to VMT growth.

Figure 4.2.9-1 Federal Highway A ssociation Statistics Graph

In order to forecast future year vehicle populat ion and disaggregate to the appropriate source type, a reliable source of county population is needed. The North Carolin a Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) coordina tes with the Census Bureau in the Federal State CooperativeOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 21 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Program for population estimates for all state government data, with special emphasis on a consistent set of population projections. On th e OSBM website are annual certified county population estimates which account for births, deat hs and natural growth representing a net migration populous on the county level.

Population data is updated annually in May and ce rtified by September for the previous year’s data. Projected annual county population estimates are available to adjust future year county vehicle populations as neede d. The USEPA has indicated that using human population growth as a surrogate to project vehicle population growth is an acceptable option. An example of how a 2008 vehicle population would be grown to 2011 ba sed on this surrogate of projected county population follows:

Vehicle Pop 2011 = Vehicle Pop 2008 * (Human Pop 2011 / Human Pop 2008 )

4.2.10 Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Program Assumptions In 2002, North Carolina implemented a new vehicle emissions inspection program referred to as onboard diagnostics (OBDII). This program covers all light duty gasoline powered vehicles that are model year 1996 and newer. The program wa s initially implemented in 9 counties and was expanded to include a total of 48 counties between July 2002 and January 2006. Guilford County was phased in July 2002. Davidson and Catawba Counties were phased-in July 1, 2003.

Inspection and maintenance program s continue to be important local control programs in many nonattainment areas. MOVES has simplified I/ M program inputs compared to MOBILE6.2, but it includes the capability of modeling all the aspect s of an I/M program that have a significant impact on vehicle emissions. The USEPA reco mmends that users modeling an existing I/M program in MOVES begin by examining the defa ult I/M program description included in MOVES for the particular count y in question. The NCDAQ modi fied the default data in MOVES to reflect county specific compliance factors.

4.2.11 Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) Assumptions RVP reflects a gasoline’s volat ility. During the winter m onths an RVP of 15.0 pounds per square inch (psi) is allowable. As ambient ai r temperatures increase, so does the volatility of gasoline. Lower RVP leads to lower VOC emis sions from gasoline handling and lowers vapor losses from motor vehicles. An RVP of 9.0 ps i is required during Ma y through September for Catawba County. An RVP of 9.0 psi is requi red for Davidson and Guilford Counties in May, but further reduces to an RVP of 7.8 psi for June through September.On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 22 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 4.2.12 Diesel Sulfur Content Assumptions

The diesel fuel sulfur content is required in MOVES to generate PM 2.5 emissions because the amount of sulfur in diesel fuel directly correl ates to sulfate particulate emissions. For the MVEBs calculation, the USEPA recommends a diesel fuel sulfur content of 43 parts per million (ppm) for the period June 2006 through May 2010 and 11 ppm for June 2010 and beyond, for all of the nonattainment counties. The USEPA’s OTAQ was contacted at the time of this submission to verify that there was no update to this guidance.

4.2.13 Fuel (Formulation and Supply)
In general, users should first review the MOVE S default fuel formulati on and fuel supply data, and then make changes only where local volumetric fuel property information is available. The lone exception to this gu idance is in the case of RVP where a user should change the value to reflect the regulatory requirem ents and differences between ethanol- and non-ethanol blended gasolines. The current version of MOVES doe s not allow the user to create new fuel identification numbers. Thus, per current Th e USEPA guidance, the NCDAQ edited the default fuel supply tables for the individual countie s to reflect the county-specific RVP data.

4.3 VMT Assumptions

As input, MOVES requires annual VMT by HPMS vehicle class. Th e USEPA has created a tool that allows users to input average annual VMT as well as monthly and weekend day adjustment factors to create the annual VMT by HPMS class and appropriate monthly and daily adjustments needed by MOVES. The USEPA has also created a set of software tools that can import VMT tables by MOBILE6.2 vehicle types (either 8, 12, 16, or 28 MOBILE6.2 vehicle types) and facility types, as well as MOBILE6.2 hourly VMT fractions, VMT mix, a nd ramp fractions and convert these to the equivalent MOVES tables of VMT by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and road type distribution.

Mapping MOBILE6.2 vehicle types to their equi valent MOVES source types is a complex process. The USEPA strongly encourages states to use the converter tools to create the appropriate MOVES input tables from MOBILE6.2 data to avoid errors. The modeled and non-modeled VMT for the Tria d nonattainment area was provided by PART on February 11, 2009 for the years 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, and in September 2009 for the year 2021. The non-modeled VMT for the Hickory nonattainment area was provided by the NCDOT in September 2009 for the years 2008, 2011, 2015, 2020, and 2025, which were interpolated to the required years. The modeled VMT for Ca tawba County were received for the years 2007,On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 23 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 2015, 2020, and 2025 and interpolated to the years needed. Tables 4.3-1 through 4.3-5 list the VMT used in the MVEBs calculations.

Table 4.3-1 Modeled Vehicle Mile s Traveled for Davidson County Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 395,808 427,523 454,579 482,342 520,791 Urban Freeway or Expressway 410,216 436,626 489,844 529,960 566,161 Urban Other Principal Arterial 400,851 417,566 424,786 445,799 485,302 Urban Minor Arterial 313,228 333,766 349,383 369,146 399,106 Urban Collector 174,365 188,452 204,905 216,695 228,296 Urban Local 263,573 282,255 299,328 314,619 334,105 Rural Interstate 205,714 221,276 236,619 251,896 272,214 Rural Other Principal Arterial 0 0 0 301 350 Rural Minor Arterial 210,241 224,000 239,192 266,365 310,129 Rural Major Collector 164,069 175,155 185,178 195,299 209,788 Rural Minor Collector 134,626 144,647 154,644 161,725 169,253 Rural Local 278,885 301,554 319,434 331,683 346,180

Table 4.3-2 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Davidson County Rural Donut Area Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 342,756 364,745 374,943 385,141 398,738 Urban Freeway or Expressway 195,218 205,614 211,362 217,111 224,776 Urban Other Principal Arterial 271,728 284,492 292,446 300,400 311,005 Urban Minor Arterial 246,395 254,965 262,094 269,222 278,727 Urban Collector 94,146 107,235 110,233 113,232 117,229 Urban Local 96,153 98,562 101,318 104,074 107,748 Rural Interstate 255,299 251,587 258,621 265,655 275,034 Rural Other Principal Arterial 152,576 149,062 153,229 157,397 162,954 Rural Minor Arterial 198,073 198,673 204,228 209,783 217,189 Rural Major Collector 241,204 238,551 245,220 251,890 260,783 Rural Minor Collector 160,589 165,660 170,292 174,924 181,099 Rural Local 98,912 98,757 101,518 104,280 107,961On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 24 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.3-3 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Guilford County Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 3,985,564 4,419,157 4,865,961 5,227,576 5,686,133 Urban Freeway or Expressway 2,251,352 2,452,593 2,613,197 2,905,078 3,399,412 Urban Other Principal Arterial 2,368,151 2,477,254 2,591,662 2,679,083 2,770,030 Urban Minor Arterial 2,727,044 2,837,423 3,012,805 3,147,788 3,280,571 Urban Collector 1,368,123 1,452,017 1,570,260 1,645,148 1,700,307 Urban Local 780,183 815,646 847,770 878,533 917,755 Rural Interstate 989,050 1,090,492 1,229,196 1,351,896 1,492,538 Rural Other Principal Arterial 513,834 545,289 546,548 567,373 605,086 Rural Minor Arterial 244,663 273,514 278,683 287,233 304,790 Rural Major Collector 776,249 838,619 898,783 941,639 993,028 Rural Minor Collector 360,879 393,534 420,122 448,880 491,674 Rural Local 411,379 435,206 655,193 721,391 643,883

Table 4.3-4 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Catawba County Modeled Portion Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 1,082,650 1,173,558 1,264,465 1,343,145 1,439,900 Urban Freeway or Expressway 326,299 355,400 384,500 413,800 453,001 Urban Other Principal Arterial 875,547 924,218 972,889 1,020,227 1,082,454 Urban Minor Arterial 922,232 978,471 1,034,710 1,084,007 1,145,109 Urban Collector 296,562 321,947 347,332 369,591 397,186 Urban Local 249,239 279,431 309,622 335,319 366,584 Rural Interstate 55,519 60,555 65,591 70,918 78,214 Rural Other Principal Arterial 203,044 223,934 244,824 266,142 294,853 Rural Minor Arterial 116,496 127,525 138,554 151,696 170,628 Rural Major Collector 97,859 108,994 120,128 130,182 142,869 Rural Minor Collector 206,017 227,192 248,367 268,052 293,307 Rural Local 83,014 91,622 100,230 108,227 118,484On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 25 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.3-5 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Catawba County Rural Donut Area Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 121,399 130,012 135,296 140,580 147,625 Urban Freeway or Expressway 48,073 51,483 53,576 55,668 58,458 Urban Other Principal Arterial 134,146 143,663 149,502 155,341 163,126 Urban Minor Arterial 103,768 111,130 115,647 120,163 126,185 Urban Collector 28,738 30,777 32,027 33,278 34,946 Urban Local 93,964 100,630 104,720 108,810 114,263 Rural Interstate 16,696 17,880 18,607 19,334 20,303 Rural Other Principal Arterial 35,762 38,299 39,855 41,412 43,487 Rural Minor Arterial 53,291 57,072 75,073 82,619 85,712 Rural Major Collector 26,637 28,527 29,686 30,846 32,392 Rural Minor Collector 49,311 52,810 54,956 57,102 59,964 Rural Local 27,521 29,474 30,671 31,869 33,466

4.4 Estimated Emissions From Mobile Sources
Using the inventory approach in the MOVES mode l gives a summary of emissions in tons per year, by county. Table 4.4-1 summarizes NOx, PM 2.5 , and SO 2 emissions, respectively.

Table 4.4-1 Emissions by County and year County\Year 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021

NOx Emissions (tons per year) Hickory Area Catawba 4,982 4,005 3,240 2,591 2,054

Triad Area Davidson 5,267 4,095 3,227 2,536 1,974 Guilford 14,499 11,157 8,882 7,143 5,796 Triad Total 19,766 15,252 12,109 9,679 7,770On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 26 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.4-1 Emissions by County and year (Continued) County\Year 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021

SO2 Emissions (tons per year) Hickory Area Catawba 35 20 18 19 20

Triad Area Davidson 36 19 17 18 18 Guilford 111 62 55 59 63 Triad Total 147 81 72 77 81

PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) Hickory Area Catawba 166 127 107 89 73

Triad Area Davidson 169 121 97 77 60 Guilford 465 330 272 221 183 Triad Total 634 451 369 298 243

4.5 Motor Vehicle Emission s Budget for Conformity

4.5.1 Transportation Conformity The purpose of transportation conformity is to ensure that Federal transportation actions occurring in a nonattainment area do not hinder th e area from attaining and/or maintaining the annual PM 2.5 standard. This means that the level of emissions estimated by the NCDOT or the MPOs for the Transportation Improvement Program and Long Range Transportation Plan must not exceed the MVEBs as defined in this maintenance plan.

4.5.2 Pollutants to be Considered 40 CFR 93.119(f)(7) through (10) id entifies the pollutants for PM 2.5 that regional emissions analysis needs to be performed for transportatio n conformity purposes. These parts of the rule are listed below:On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 27 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 §119(f)(7) – PM 2.5 in PM 2.5 areas; §119(f)(8) – Reentrained road dust in PM 2.5 areas only if the EPA [Environmental Protection Agency] Regional Administrator or the director of the State air agency has made a finding that emissions from r eentrained road dust within the area are a significant contributor to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem and has so notified the MPO and DOT [Department of Transportation]; §119(f)(9) – NOx [nitrogen oxides] in PM 2.5 areas, unless the EPA Regional Administrator and the director of the St ate air agency have made a finding that emissions of NOx from with in the area are not a signi ficant contributor to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem and has so notified the MPO and DOT; and §119(f)(10) – VOC, SO 2 and/or ammonia in PM 2.5 areas if the EPA Regional Administrator or the director of the St ate air agency has made a finding that any of such precursor emissions from within the area are a significant contributor to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem and has so notified the MPO and DOT. Only primary, or direct PM 2.5 , tailpipe emissions must be considered for transportation conformity regional emissions analysis. The othe r precursor pollutants and reentrained road dust only need to be considered if th e State air agency and/or the US EPA has deemed the pollutant as a significant contributor to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem. The fo llowing sections discuss the significance of the precursor pollutants and reentraine d road dust to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem.

Precursor Pollutants NOx, VOC, and Ammonia

The PM 2.5 precursor NO x is presumed to be a significant contributor to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem by the USEPA. The NCDAQ has determined that NOx is a relatively minor contributor to the PM 2.5 concentrations in North Carolina. Howe ver, the NCDAQ is not asserting that NOx is an insignificant precursor for the 1997 PM 2.5 standard. Therefore, the NCDAQ will establish county level MVEBs for NOx for all three PM 2.5 nonattainment counties.

For the purpose of this attainment demonstr ation, VOC and ammonia are presumed to be insignificant contributors to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem by the USEPA. The NCDAQ agrees with the USEPA that both VOC and ammo nia are insignificant contributors to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem in North Carolina. Since these precursors have been deemed insignificant, no MVEBs are being es tablished for VOC or ammonia.

An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for PM 2.5 emissions for these areas and does not relieve themOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 28 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 of the other transportation confor mity requirements. The trans portation partners will need to note the PM 2.5 insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations.

Reentrained Road Dust The majority of the roads in North Carolina are paved so there is minimum road dust due to the paved roads. The factor to calcu late reentrained road dust on pave d roads is very small. What dust is generated, has been shown in the literature, Methodology to Estimate the Transportable Fraction (TF) of Fugitive Dust Emissions fo r Regional and Urban Scale Air Quality Analyses, US EPA, August 3, 2005 , to be inconsequential.

This fact is affirmed by the sm all crustal component in the PM 2.5 speciated data which measures only 3% at Hickory monitoring site (Catawba County) in 20 02 and only 2% at Lexington monitoring site (Davidson County) in 2004 (see Figure 4.5.2-1 below).

Since the reentrained road dust is no t a significant contributor to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem, the NCDAQ will not be establishing MVEBs for this source category. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partne rs from a regional emissions analysis for reentrained road dust emi ssions for these areas and does not relieve them of the other transportation confor mity requirements. The trans portation partners will need to note the reentrained road dust insignificance finding (if found adequa te and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations. Hickory AIRS Code 370350004 POC 5 (ROUTINE) Date(s): 1/2/2002 - 12/4/2002 Average Concentration (μg/m3)

Nitrate

6%

Sulfate 30%

Ammonium 10% Organic carbon 32% Elemental carbon 4% Crustal component 3% Other 15% (NC) - Lexington AIRS Code 370570002 POC 5 (ROUTINE) Date(s): 1/16/2004 - 2/9/2005 Average Concentration (μg/m3)

Nitrate

7%

Sulfat e 29%

Ammonium 10% Organic carbon 28% Elemental carbon 4% Crustal component 2% Other 20%

Figure 4.5.2-1. Speciated Data for the Hickory area (left) and the Triad area (right)On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 29 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Precursor Pollutant SO 2 The PM 2.5 precursor SO 2 could not be deemed insignificant to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem. However, the NCDAQ has determined that SO 2 emitted by the mobile source sector is insignificant. The USEPA in its Federal Register (FR) notice for PM 2.5 does not address the mobile sector in its listing of significant emi ssions. North Carolina agrees with the following statements addressing SO 2 from on-road mobile emissions as published in the May 6, 2005 Federal Register, (70 FR 24283):

“While speciated air quality dat a show that sulfate is a re latively signific ant component (e.g., ranging from nine to 40 percent) of PM 2.5 mass in all regions of the country, emissions inventory data and projections show that on-road emissions of SOx constitute a ‘‘de minimis’’ (i.e., extremely small) portion of total SOx em issions. Emissions inventory data for 1999 for the 372 potential PM 2.5 nonattainment counties for PM 2.5 (based on 1999–2001 air quality data) show that on-road s ources were responsible for only two percent of total SOx emissions.

Furthermore, EPA has already adopted tw o regulations that will greatly reduce emissions of SOx from on-road sources by the ti me such regulations are both in full effect in 2009. First, in 2004 the low sulfur gasoline program began to be phased in and will be fully effective in 2007 (February 10, 2000, 65 FR 6697). This regulation will reduce the sulfur content of gasoline by approximat ely 90 percent when fully effective. Second, in 2006 the low sulfur diesel program will begin to be phased in and will be fully effective by 2009 (January 18, 2001, 66 FR 5001). This regulation will reduce the sulfur content of diesel fuel by approximately 97 percent nationally when fully effective.

Projections of on-r oad emissions of SO 2 in 2020 indicate that on-road sources will be responsible for less than one percent of the total SO 2 emissions in 2020 in the 372 potential PM 2.5 nonattainment counties (based on 1999– 2001 air quality data). These projections confirm that the implementation of the fuel regulations discussed above will ensure that as a general matter of SO 2 emissions from on-road sources remain at insignificant levels in all areas.”

Although sulfate is a signif icant component to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem in North Carolina, the majority of the SO 2 emissions (which can be oxidized to form SO4) in 2009 come from the stationary point source sector (see Figure 4.5.2-2). The mobile source sector only contributes one half of one per cent (0.5 %) of the 2009 statewide SO 2 emissions. This is consistent with what th e USEPA stated above.On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 30 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Since the mobile source SO 2 contribution is insignificant, the NCDAQ is not establishing MVEBs for this precursor. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for SO 2 emissions for these areas and does not relieve them of the other tran sportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the SO 2 insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in futu re conformity determinations.

Direct PM 2.5 Emissions The NCDAQ believes strongly that the primary PM 2.5 emissions from mobile sources do not contribute significantly to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem. However, the USEPA has indicated they will not approve a SIP that does not set MVEBs for primary PM 2.5 for the Triad. Therefore, the NCDAQ will establish county level MVEBs for primary PM 2.5 for the Triad. The sections that follow discuss the insignificance of PM 2.5 emissions for the Hickory area.

40 CFR 93.109(k) in the Transpor tation Conformity Rule Amendm ents for the new 8-hour ozone and fine particulate matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQSs) addresses areas with insignificant motor vehicl e emissions as follows,

“Notwithstanding the other paragraphs in this s ection, an area is not required to s0atisfy a regional emissions analys is for §93.118 and/or §93.119 for a given pollutant/precursor and NAAQS, if EPA finds through the adequacy or approval process that a SIP demonstrates that regional motor vehicle emissions are an insignificant contributor to the air quality problem for that pollutant/precursor and NAAQS. The SIP would have to demonstrate that it would be unreasonable to expect that such an area would experience Figure 4.5.2-2. North Carolina’s 2009 Statewide SO2 Emissions Nonroad

0.6%
Area 2.1%
Mobile 0.5% Point 96.7%On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 31 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 enough motor vehicle emissions growth in that pollutant/precursor for a NAAQS violation to occur.”

The rule suggests that such a finding would be based on a number of factors, including the percentage of motor vehicle emi ssions in the context of the tota l SIP inventory, the current state of air quality as determined by monitoring data for that NAAQS, the absence of SIP motor vehicle control measures, and historical trends and future projections of the growth of motor vehicle emissions. Although there is an inspection and maintenance program in the nonattainment areas, this control measure does not control primary PM 2.5 , but rather is in place to reduce the ozone precursors.

The attainment modeling for the Hickory (Cat awba County) and the Triad (Davidson and Guilford Counties) PM 2.5 nonattainment areas was performed in conjunction with the regional haze modeling being done by the Southeast Regional Planning Organization, Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of th e Southeast (VISTAS) a nd the fine particulate matter and ozone modeling being done by the Asso ciation of Southeastern Integrated Planning (ASIP). VISTAS and ASIP were run by the ten southeast states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vi rginia and West Virginia). In conjunction with that modeling th e NCDAQ examined the sources of PM 2.5 emissions and their contribution to PM 2.5 formation in the nonattainment counties. This was accomplished using the 2009 emissions inventories develope d for the VISTAS/ASIP modeling. Figure 4.5.2-3 provides the percent contributions from point, area, nonroad mobile and on-road mobile source sectors for the Hickory nonattainment area.

1.59%

68.70% 1.49%

28.22%

Mobile
Point
Area Nonroad

Figure 4.5.2-3. Hickory Area 2009 Primary PM 2.5 EmissionsOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 32 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 The 2009 on-road mobile PM 2.5 emissions contributed only 1.6% of the total PM 2.5 emissions for the Hickory area. Therefore, it is demonstrated, that the PM 2.5 emissions compared to the total PM 2.5 emissions are insignificant. It s hould be noted that the mobile source PM 2.5 emissions slightly decrease from 2002 to 2009 despit e an increase in VMT. The Hickory PM 2.5 emissions go from 100 tons/year in 2002 to 75 tons/year in 2009. Meanwhile, there is an increase in VMT in the Hickory area from 4,444,280 miles/day in 2002 to 5,081,590 miles/day in 2009. Further justification for the case insignificance of direct PM 2.5 emission follows.

The NCDAQ performed sensitivit y modeling using 2008 emissions m odeling in order to address the challenge of Section 93.109( k) in the Transportation C onformity Rule Amendments, “The SIP would have to demonstrate that it would be unreasonable to expect enough motor vehicle emissions growth in that pollutant/precursor for a NAAQ S violation to occur”. The modeling system used was the same as the VISTAS/ASI P modeling and consisted of three components: 1) the Penn State University/National Center fo r Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5 version 3.6.1+), 2) the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emi ssions Modeling System (SMOKE version 2.1), and 3) the Commun ity Multiscale Air Quality (CM AQ version 4.4) model. Model configurations, input data, and modeling methods are consistent with those suggested by the USEPA in Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Anal yses in Attainment Demonstrations for the 8-hour Ozone NAAQS

.
The primary PM 2.5 emissions from on-road mobile sources were doubled in Catawba, Davidson and Guilford Counties, therefore, simulating a doubling of the VMT during a 7-day summer time simulation. The results of the em issions sensitivities showed such similar results that looking at just the difference between two air quality mode l simulations, one with base case emissions and another with increased emissions inputs, showed no change. To show what the differences were between the two runs, line graphs of the hourly emissions for the time period modeled for Catawba County is displayed in Figures 4.5.2-3

. The sensitivity modeling design value (DV) increased by 0.04 μ g/m 3 in Catawba County. The difference is barely visible as seen in the figure below.On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 33 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Based on the information discussed above, the NCDAQ believes that the on-road mobile PM 2.5 emissions are insignifican t contributors to the PM 2.5 nonattainment problem in Catawba County. Emission estimates indicate that the on-road mobile PM 2.5 emissions are a small percentage of the total PM 2.5 emissions in the Hickory nonattainment area. On-road mobile PM 2.5 emissions are projected to decrease into the future notwi thstanding VMT increases. Air quality modeling sensitivities show that do ubling the mobile source PM 2.5 emissions has very little effect on the future design values. The NCDAQ considers it unreasonable to expect that the Hickory PM 2.5 nonattainment area will expe rience enough motor vehicle PM 2.5 emissions growth for a future PM 2.5 violation to occur due to mobile sources.

Due to above analysis and agreement from the USEPA, budgets for direct PM 2.5 will not be set for the Hickory nonattainment area. An affirm ative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners fro m a regional emissions analysis for PM 2.5 emissions for this area and does not relieve them of the othe r transportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the PM 2.5 insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in futu re conformity determinations.

4.5.3 Safety Margin A safety margin is the difference between the attainment level of emissions from all source categories (i.e., point, area, and mobile) and the projected level of emissions from all source Figure 4.5.2-4. Catawba County Hourly PM 2.5 Emissions Cataw ba County Hourly PM2.5 2008 baseline (blue) vs. 2008 w ith 100% On-road Mobile PM2.5 primary increase (red)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9171 3192531374349556167737 98591971031 09115121127133139145151157163

h ouru g/m3 2008 100% mb PM2.5 increase 2008-baselineOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 34 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 categories. The State may choose to allocate so me of the safety margin to the MVEBs, for transportation conformity purposes, so long as th e total level of emissions from all source categories remains below the attainment level of em issions. In this maintenance plan, the safety margin is the difference between the attainment level of emissions (2008) from all man-made sources and the projected level of emissions fr om all man-made sources in the nonattainment area. The safety margin for each projected year is listed below in Table 4.5.3-1 and 4.5.3-2.

Table 4.5.3-1 Safety Margin for Hickory PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area

Year NOx PM 2.5 (tons/year) (kilograms per year) (tons/year) (kilograms per year) 2011 -4,037 -3,662,304 -67 -60,781 2014 -5,073 -4,602,148 -126 -114,305 2017 -5,917 -5,367,811 -180 -163,293 2021 -6,618 -6,003,748 -253 -229,518

Table 4.5.3-2 Safety Margin for Triad PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area

Year NOx PM 2.5 (tons/year) (kilograms per year) (tons/year) (kilograms per year) 2011 -5,247 -4,759,998 -277 -251,290 2014 -9,150 -8,300,739 -490 -444,520 2017 -12,270 -11,131,155 -682 -618,700 2021 -14,759 -13,389,138 -919 -833,703

There are significant safety margins for both nonattainment areas for 2011 and 2021. The NCDAQ has decided to allocate a portion of th e safety margin to the MVEBs to allow for unanticipated growth in VMT, changes to vehicl e mix assumptions, etc. that will influence the emission estimations. However, since NOx is a pr ecursor to ozone, we need to limit how much safety margin is added to the MVEBs. In 2008 the USEPA lowered the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone to 0.075 ppm. Th e NCDAQ believes adding an additional 10% to the 2011 NOx emissions is appropriate for the 2011 NOx MVEBs and adding an additional 20% to the 2021 NOx emissions is appropriate fo r the 2021 NOx MVEBs to account for potential changes in VMT, vehicle mix and vehicle age distribution for Catawba, Davidson, and Guilford Counties. The NCDAQ believes that setting the 2011 and 2021 PM 2.5 MVEBs to the level ofOn-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 35 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 PM 2.5 emissions present in 2008 is a sufficient safety margin for Davidson and Guilford Counties.

4.5.4 Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets As part of the consultation process on se tting MVEBs, the NCDAQ sent out a request for comment on setting the geographic extent of the MV EBs to all of the tran sportation partners. A copy of the letter can be found in Appendix B. In the letter, the NCDAQ expressed its preference for setting county level budgets and the reasons why the NCDAQ believed county level budgets were appropriate. With respect to the PM 2.5 nonattainment areas, the NCDAQ received comments from the Greensboro MPO rega rding the geographic extent of the MVEBs. The Greensboro MPO agreed with the NCDAQ that MVEBs should be set at the county level. A copy of the letter received that relates to the PM 2.5 nonattainment areas can be found in Appendix B. Therefore MVEBs will be set at the county level.

According to Section 93.118 of the transportation conformity rule, a maintenance plan must establish a MVEB for the last year of the maintenance plan (in this case, 2021). Through the interagency consultation process, it was decided that an interim MV EB would be set for the year 2011 for the Hickory and Triad maintenance plan.

Tables 4.5.3-1 and 4.5.3-2 below display the PM 2.5 and NOx emissions, respectively expressed in kilograms per year and the corresponding tons per year for the years MVEBs are being established. These two tables are for reference purposes only and are no t the tables presenting the MVEBs.

Table 4.5.4-1 On-Road Mobile Source PM 2.5 Emissions
County Kilograms/year Tons/year 2011 2021 2011 2021 Davidson 109,769 54,431 121 60 Guilford 299,371 166,015 330 183 Triad Total 409,140 220,446 451 243On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 36 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.5.4-2 On-Road Mobile Source NOx Emissions
County Kilograms/year Tons/year 2011 2021 2011 2021 Catawba 3,633,274 1,863,357 4,005 2,054

Davidson 3,714,921 1,790,782 4,095 1,974 Guilford 10,121,459 5,258,042 11,157 5,796 Triad Total 13,836,380 7,048,824 15,252 7,770

Although the emissions are usually expressed in term s of tons, the MVEBs w ill be set in terms of kilograms (kg). The NCDAQ will set MVEB, for transportation conformity purposes, as county budgets within the Hickory and Triad main tenance areas for 2011 and 2021. Tables 4.6.4-3 through 4.6.4-5 below list out the MVEBs in kilogr ams per year, for transportation conformity purposes, by county for the years 2011 and 2021. Upon the USEPA’s affirmative adequacy finding for these county level sub-area MVEBs, these MVEBs will become the applicable MVEBs for each county.

Table 4.5.4-3 Catawba County MVEB 2011 2021

NO x Emissions (kg/year) Base Emissions 3,633,274 1,863,357 Safety Margin Allocated to MVEB 363,327 372,671 NO x Conformity MVEB 3,996,601 2,236,028

Table 4.5.4-4 Davidson County MVEB 2011 2021

NO x Emissions (kg/year) Base Emissions 3,714,921 1,790,782 Safety Margin Allocated to MVEB 371,492 358,156 NO x Conformity MVEB 4,086,413 2,148,938

PM 2.5 Emissions (kg/year) Base Emissions 109,769 54,431 Safety Margin Allocated to MVEB 43,544 98,882
PM 2.5 Conformity MVEB 153,313 153,313On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 37 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Table 4.5.4-5 Guilford County MVEB 2011 2021

NO x Emissions (kg/year) Base Emissions 10,121,459 5,258,042 Safety Margin Allocated to MVEB 1,012,146 1,051,608 NO x Conformity MVEB 11,133,605 6,309,650

PM 2.5 Emissions (kg/year) Base Emissions 299,371 166,015 Safety Margin Allocated to MVEB 122,470 255,826
PM 2.5 Conformity MVEB 421,841 421,841

Tables 4.5.4-6 and 4.5.4-7 list that portion of the safety margin that was added to the mobile source emissions to develop the MVEBs. These values can be compared to those in Tables 4.5.4-1 and 4.5.4-2 to see that NCDAQ added only a sm all fraction of that which was available. With these safety margins, it is projected that emissions from all source categories will remain below the attainment level emissions.

Table 4.5.4-6 County Level PM 2.5 MVEB Safety Margin for 2011 and 2021

County 2011 MVEB Safety Margin (Kilograms/year) 2021 MVEB Safety Margin (Kilograms/year) Triad Total 166,014 354,708

Table 4.5.4-7 County Level NOx MVEB Safety Margin for 2011 and 2021

County 2011 MVEB Safety Margin (Kilograms/year) 2021 MVEB Safety Margin (Kilograms/year) Catawba 363,327 372,671

Triad Total 1,383,638 1,409,764

For the Hickory nonattainment area, a tota l of 363,327 kg/year (400 tons/year) and 372,671 kg/year (411 tons/year) of the 2011 and 2021 NO x safety margins, respectively, were added to the NO X MVEBs.On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 38 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 For the Triad nonattainment area, a tota l of 1,383,638 kg/year (1,525 tons/year) and 1,409,764 kg/year 1,554 tons/year) of the 2011 and 2021 NO x safety margins, respectively, were added to the Triad NO X MVEBs. For PM 2.5 , a total of 166,014 kg/year (183 tons/year) and 354,708 kg/year (391 tons/year) of the 2011 and 2021 PM 2.5 safety margins, respectively, were added to the Triad PM 2.5 MVEBs. Tables 4.5.4-8 and 4.5.4-9 re flect the remaining safety margins.

Table 4.5.4-8 New Safety Margins for the Hickory PM 2.5 nonattainment area
Year NO x TPY PM 2.5 TPY 2011 -3,637 -67 2014 -5,073 -126 2017 -5,917 -180 2021 -6,207 -253

Table 4.5.4-9 New Safety Margins for the Triad PM 2.5 nonattainment area
Year NO x TPY PM 2.5 TPY 2011 -3,722 -94 2014 -9,150 -490 2017 -12,270 -682 2021 -13,205 -528On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 39 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 

### 5.0 DATA USED

5.1 North Carolina’s Vehicle Mix

5.1.1 2008 State Vehicle Mix

Rural 2008 State Vehicle Mix LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.3219 0.0715 0.2381 0.0734 0.0337 0.0814 0.0080 0.0065 0.0050 0.0183 0.0214 0.0233 0.0833 0.0072 0.0032 0.0038 Princ. Art. 0.3731 0.0829 0.2761 0.0851 0.0391 0.0423 0.0041 0.0034 0.0026 0.0095 0.0111 0.0121 0.0433 0.0054 0.0024 0.0075 Minor Art. 0.3796 0.0843 0.2808 0.0865 0.0398 0.0376 0.0037 0.0030 0.0023 0.0084 0.0099 0.0108 0.0385 0.0062 0.0028 0.0058 Major Collector 0.4002 0.0889 0.2960 0.0912 0.0419 0.0232 0.0023 0.0019 0.0014 0.0052 0.0061 0.0066 0.0237 0.0037 0.0017 0.0060 Minor Collector 0.3969 0.0882 0.2937 0.0905 0.0416 0.0247 0.0024 0.0020 0.0015 0.0055 0.0065 0.0071 0.0253 0.0048 0.0021 0.0072 Local 0.3829 0.0851 0.2832 0.0873 0.0401 0.0300 0.0029 0.0024 0.0019 0.0067 0.0079 0.0086 0.0307 0.0131 0.0059 0.0113

Urban LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.3510 0.0780 0.2596 0.0800 0.0368 0.0594 0.0058 0.0047 0.0037 0.0133 0.0156 0.0170 0.0608 0.0061 0.0028 0.0054 Freeway 0.3805 0.0845 0.2815 0.0867 0.0399 0.0384 0.0038 0.0031 0.0024 0.0086 0.0101 0.0110 0.0393 0.0047 0.0021 0.0034 Princ. Art. 0.3987 0.0886 0.2950 0.0909 0.0418 0.0244 0.0024 0.0020 0.0015 0.0055 0.0064 0.0070 0.0250 0.0036 0.0016 0.0056 Minor Art 0.4095 0.0910 0.3029 0.0933 0.0429 0.0161 0.0016 0.0013 0.0010 0.0036 0.0042 0.0046 0.0165 0.0037 0.0017 0.0061 Coll 0.4117 0.0915 0.3047 0.0939 0.0432 0.0140 0.0014 0.0011 0.0009 0.0031 0.0037 0.0040 0.0143 0.0033 0.0015 0.0077 Local 0.3957 0.0880 0.2929 0.0902 0.0415 0.0192 0.0019 0.0015 0.0012 0.0043 0.0050 0.0055 0.0196 0.0159 0.0072 0.0104On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 40 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 5.1.2 2011 State Vehicle Mix

Rural 2011 State Vehicle Mix LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.2894 0.0770 0.2561 0.0789 0.0363 0.0828 0.0081 0.0068 0.0051 0.0185 0.0219 0.0238 0.0845 0.0042 0.0021 0.0045 Princ. Art. 0.3367 0.0896 0.2980 0.0918 0.0423 0.0438 0.0043 0.0036 0.0027 0.0098 0.0116 0.0126 0.0447 0.0022 0.0011 0.0052 Minor Art. 0.3421 0.0909 0.3024 0.0932 0.0429 0.0396 0.0039 0.0032 0.0024 0.0088 0.0105 0.0114 0.0404 0.0020 0.0010 0.0053 Major Collector 0.3606 0.0958 0.3188 0.0982 0.0452 0.0244 0.0024 0.0020 0.0015 0.0054 0.0064 0.0070 0.0249 0.0012 0.0006 0.0056 Minor Collector 0.3581 0.0952 0.3167 0.0976 0.0449 0.0263 0.0026 0.0022 0.0016 0.0059 0.0069 0.0076 0.0269 0.0013 0.0007 0.0055 Local 0.3471 0.0923 0.3070 0.0946 0.0435 0.0354 0.0034 0.0029 0.0022 0.0079 0.0093 0.0102 0.0361 0.0018 0.0009 0.0054

Urban LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.3161 0.0841 0.2797 0.0862 0.0397 0.0608 0.0059 0.0050 0.0037 0.0136 0.0161 0.0175 0.0620 0.0031 0.0016 0.0049 Freeway 0.3418 0.0909 0.3023 0.0932 0.0429 0.0397 0.0039 0.0033 0.0024 0.0089 0.0105 0.0114 0.0405 0.0020 0.0010 0.0053 Princ. Art. 0.3590 0.0954 0.3176 0.0979 0.0451 0.0255 0.0025 0.0021 0.0016 0.0057 0.0067 0.0073 0.0260 0.0013 0.0007 0.0056 Minor Art 0.3691 0.0980 0.3262 0.1005 0.0463 0.0174 0.0017 0.0014 0.0011 0.0039 0.0046 0.0050 0.0178 0.0009 0.0004 0.0057 Coll 0.3717 0.0988 0.3286 0.1013 0.0466 0.0152 0.0015 0.0012 0.0009 0.0034 0.0040 0.0044 0.0155 0.0008 0.0004 0.0057 Local 0.3585 0.0952 0.3169 0.0977 0.0450 0.0261 0.0025 0.0021 0.0016 0.0058 0.0069 0.0075 0.0267 0.0013 0.0007 0.0055On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 41 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 5.1.3 2014 State Vehicle Mix

Rural 2014 State Vehicle Mix LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.2658 0.0811 0.2698 0.0831 0.0382 0.0827 0.0080 0.0068 0.0051 0.0186 0.0218 0.0237 0.0846 0.0042 0.0021 0.0044 Princ. Art. 0.3095 0.0943 0.3139 0.0967 0.0445 0.0437 0.0042 0.0036 0.0027 0.0098 0.0115 0.0125 0.0447 0.0022 0.0011 0.0051 Minor Art. 0.3143 0.0957 0.3186 0.0981 0.0451 0.0395 0.0038 0.0032 0.0024 0.0089 0.0104 0.0113 0.0405 0.0020 0.0010 0.0052 Major Collector 0.3310 0.1009 0.3358 0.1034 0.0476 0.0243 0.0024 0.0020 0.0015 0.0055 0.0064 0.0070 0.0249 0.0012 0.0006 0.0055 Minor Collector 0.3287 0.1003 0.3336 0.1028 0.0473 0.0263 0.0026 0.0022 0.0016 0.0059 0.0069 0.0075 0.0269 0.0013 0.0007 0.0054 Local 0.3186 0.0972 0.3234 0.0996 0.0458 0.0353 0.0034 0.0029 0.0022 0.0080 0.0093 0.0101 0.0362 0.0018 0.0009 0.0053

Urban LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.2904 0.0885 0.2946 0.0908 0.0417 0.0607 0.0059 0.0050 0.0037 0.0137 0.0160 0.0174 0.0621 0.0031 0.0016 0.0048 Freeway 0.3140 0.0957 0.3185 0.0981 0.0451 0.0396 0.0039 0.0032 0.0024 0.0089 0.0104 0.0114 0.0406 0.0020 0.0010 0.0052 Princ. Art. 0.3296 0.1005 0.3345 0.1030 0.0474 0.0255 0.0025 0.0021 0.0016 0.0057 0.0067 0.0073 0.0261 0.0013 0.0007 0.0055 Minor Art 0.3387 0.1033 0.3436 0.1059 0.0487 0.0174 0.0017 0.0014 0.0011 0.0039 0.0046 0.0050 0.0178 0.0009 0.0004 0.0056 Coll 0.3414 0.1040 0.3462 0.1066 0.0490 0.0152 0.0015 0.0012 0.0009 0.0034 0.0040 0.0043 0.0155 0.0008 0.0004 0.0056 Local 0.3291 0.1003 0.3338 0.1028 0.0473 0.0261 0.0025 0.0021 0.0016 0.0059 0.0069 0.0075 0.0267 0.0013 0.0007 0.0054On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 42 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 5.1.4 2017 State Vehicle Mix

Rural 2017 State Vehicle Mix LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.2490 0.0839 0.2795 0.0861 0.0396 0.0825 0.0082 0.0069 0.0051 0.0185 0.0219 0.0238 0.0844 0.0042 0.0021 0.0043 Princ. Art. 0.2897 0.0976 0.3252 0.1002 0.0461 0.0436 0.0043 0.0037 0.0027 0.0098 0.0116 0.0126 0.0446 0.0022 0.0011 0.0050 Minor Art. 0.2939 0.0991 0.3301 0.1017 0.0468 0.0395 0.0039 0.0033 0.0024 0.0089 0.0105 0.0114 0.0404 0.0020 0.0010 0.0051 Major Collector 0.3101 0.1045 0.3479 0.1072 0.0493 0.0243 0.0024 0.0020 0.0015 0.0054 0.0064 0.0070 0.0248 0.0012 0.0006 0.0054 Minor Collector 0.3079 0.1038 0.3456 0.1065 0.0490 0.0262 0.0026 0.0022 0.0016 0.0059 0.0070 0.0076 0.0268 0.0013 0.0007 0.0053 Local 0.2982 0.1006 0.3350 0.1032 0.0475 0.0353 0.0035 0.0030 0.0022 0.0079 0.0094 0.0102 0.0361 0.0018 0.0009 0.0052

Urban LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.2721 0.0916 0.3052 0.0940 0.0432 0.0606 0.0060 0.0051 0.0037 0.0136 0.0161 0.0175 0.0620 0.0031 0.0015 0.0047 Freeway 0.2940 0.0991 0.3299 0.1017 0.0467 0.0396 0.0039 0.0033 0.0024 0.0089 0.0105 0.0114 0.0405 0.0020 0.0010 0.0051 Princ. Art. 0.3091 0.1040 0.3465 0.1068 0.0491 0.0254 0.0025 0.0021 0.0016 0.0057 0.0067 0.0073 0.0260 0.0013 0.0006 0.0053 Minor Art 0.3172 0.1069 0.3560 0.1097 0.0504 0.0174 0.0017 0.0015 0.0011 0.0039 0.0046 0.0050 0.0178 0.0009 0.0004 0.0055 Coll 0.3196 0.1077 0.3586 0.1105 0.0508 0.0151 0.0015 0.0013 0.0009 0.0034 0.0040 0.0044 0.0155 0.0008 0.0004 0.0055 Local 0.3083 0.1038 0.3458 0.1066 0.0490 0.0260 0.0026 0.0022 0.0016 0.0058 0.0069 0.0075 0.0266 0.0013 0.0007 0.0053On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 43 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 5.1.5 2021 State Vehicle Mix

Rural 2020+ State Vehicle Mix LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.2366 0.0861 0.2865 0.0883 0.0406 0.0825 0.0081 0.0069 0.0052 0.0185 0.0219 0.0238 0.0844 0.0042 0.0021 0.0043 Princ. Art. 0.2751 0.1002 0.3334 0.1028 0.0473 0.0436 0.0043 0.0036 0.0028 0.0098 0.0116 0.0126 0.0446 0.0022 0.0011 0.0050 Minor Art. 0.2791 0.1017 0.3384 0.1043 0.0480 0.0395 0.0039 0.0033 0.0025 0.0089 0.0105 0.0114 0.0404 0.0020 0.0010 0.0051 Major Collector 0.2945 0.1072 0.3567 0.1099 0.0506 0.0243 0.0024 0.0020 0.0015 0.0055 0.0064 0.0070 0.0248 0.0012 0.0006 0.0054 Minor Collector 0.2924 0.1065 0.3543 0.1092 0.0503 0.0262 0.0026 0.0022 0.0017 0.0059 0.0070 0.0076 0.0268 0.0013 0.0007 0.0053 Local 0.2833 0.1032 0.3435 0.1059 0.0487 0.0353 0.0035 0.0029 0.0022 0.0079 0.0094 0.0102 0.0361 0.0018 0.0009 0.0052

Urban LDV LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8a HDV8b HDBS HDBT MC Interstate 0.2583 0.0940 0.3129 0.0964 0.0444 0.0606 0.0060 0.0051 0.0038 0.0136 0.0161 0.0175 0.0620 0.0031 0.0015 0.0047 Freeway 0.2790 0.1017 0.3383 0.1043 0.0480 0.0396 0.0039 0.0033 0.0025 0.0089 0.0105 0.0114 0.0405 0.0020 0.0010 0.0051 Princ. Art. 0.2934 0.1068 0.3553 0.1095 0.0504 0.0254 0.0025 0.0021 0.0016 0.0057 0.0067 0.0073 0.0260 0.0013 0.0006 0.0054 Minor Art 0.3013 0.1097 0.3650 0.1125 0.0518 0.0174 0.0017 0.0014 0.0011 0.0039 0.0046 0.0050 0.0178 0.0009 0.0004 0.0055 Coll 0.3033 0.1105 0.3677 0.1133 0.0522 0.0152 0.0015 0.0013 0.0010 0.0034 0.0040 0.0044 0.0155 0.0008 0.0004 0.0055 Local 0.2926 0.1066 0.3546 0.1093 0.0503 0.0260 0.0026 0.0022 0.0016 0.0059 0.0069 0.0075 0.0266 0.0013 0.0007 0.0053On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 44 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 5.2 Meteorology

5.2.1 Catawba County Temperature and Relative Humidity

STATE CLIMATE OFFICE OF NORTH CAROLINA NC CRONOS Database 2008 data retrieval from Hickory Airport (KHKY) Hickory, Burke County Latitude: 35.7411464 Longitude: -81.3895489 Elevation: 1189 ft.

Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 1 0 31 35.9 67 1 1 31 34.5 71 1 2 31 34.2 72 1 3 31 33.7 74 1 4 31 33 76 1 5 31 32.5 75 1 6 31 32.3 75 1 7 31 32.3 75 1 8 31 34.7 70 1 9 31 37.6 63 1 10 31 40.7 54 1 11 31 42.9 50 1 12 31 44.9 46 1 13 31 46.3 45 1 14 31 46.9 44 1 15 31 46.5 45 1 16 31 45.4 46 1 17 31 42.8 51 1 18 31 40.9 56 1 19 31 40 58 1 20 30 38.8 62 1 21 31 37.9 62 1 22 31 37.1 65 1 23 31 36.6 67 2 0 29 40.1 72 2 1 29 39.5 73 2 2 29 38.7 75 2 3 29 38.1 75 2 4 29 37 78 2 5 29 36.7 79 2 6 29 36.5 79 2 7 29 36.8 78 2 8 29 39.4 74 2 9 29 42.8 68 2 10 29 45.8 62 2 11 29 48.5 58On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 45 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 2 12 29 50.7 55 2 13 29 52 53 2 14 29 52.5 52 2 15 29 53.1 50 2 16 29 52.3 51 2 17 29 49.8 55 2 18 29 47.5 57 2 19 29 45.6 61 2 20 29 44.7 62 2 21 29 43.6 64 2 22 29 42.4 66 2 23 29 41.4 68 3 0 31 46.7 63 3 1 31 45.5 65 3 2 31 44.1 68 3 3 31 43.9 68 3 4 31 42.9 70 3 5 31 41.9 73 3 6 31 41.9 74 3 7 31 44.2 72 3 8 31 47.7 63 3 9 31 51.4 56 3 10 31 54.1 50 3 11 31 56.2 48 3 12 31 57.1 49 3 13 31 58.2 48 3 14 31 58.5 46 3 15 31 58.7 46 3 16 31 58.4 46 3 17 31 57.2 48 3 18 31 54.8 52 3 19 31 52.7 55 3 20 31 51.6 57 3 21 31 50.4 58 3 22 31 49.2 61 3 23 31 47.6 64 4 0 30 53.6 76 4 1 30 53.2 78 4 2 30 51.9 80 4 3 30 51.3 80 4 4 30 50.6 82 4 5 30 50 82 4 6 30 51.4 81 4 7 30 53.9 76 4 8 30 56.8 69 4 9 30 59.8 63 4 10 30 61.4 61 4 11 30 63.3 57 4 12 30 64.3 54On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 46 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 4 13 30 65.6 54 4 14 29 66.8 52 4 15 30 66.1 52 4 16 30 65.7 51 4 17 30 64 55 4 18 30 62 58 4 19 30 59.7 63 4 20 30 58.3 65 4 21 30 56.9 68 4 22 30 55.7 71 4 23 30 54.6 73 5 0 31 60.6 73 5 1 31 59.5 76 5 2 31 58.7 78 5 3 31 58.2 78 5 4 31 57.1 81 5 5 31 56.7 84 5 6 31 59.1 80 5 7 30 61.7 73 5 8 31 65.9 64 5 9 31 68.6 59 5 10 31 70.8 55 5 11 31 73.3 50 5 12 31 75.1 47 5 13 31 75.4 45 5 14 31 75.4 45 5 15 31 75.3 46 5 16 31 74.5 46 5 17 31 73.2 49 5 18 31 70.7 52 5 19 31 68 56 5 20 31 66.1 61 5 21 31 64.3 65 5 22 31 63.6 66 5 23 31 62.4 71 6 0 30 70.3 76 6 1 30 69.3 78 6 2 30 67.7 81 6 3 30 66.9 82 6 4 30 66.4 83 6 5 30 66.5 84 6 6 30 69.5 78 6 7 30 73.9 69 6 8 30 78.6 58 6 9 30 82.4 49 6 10 30 84.9 44 6 11 30 86.4 40 6 12 30 87.9 37 6 13 30 89 35On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 47 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 6 14 30 88.6 36 6 15 30 87.1 39 6 16 30 85.7 43 6 17 30 83.5 47 6 18 30 81.3 51 6 19 30 77.8 57 6 20 30 75.9 61 6 21 30 74.3 65 6 22 30 73 68 6 23 30 71.4 73 7 0 31 70.7 84 7 1 31 69.3 87 7 2 31 68.9 87 7 3 31 68 90 7 4 31 67.5 90 7 5 31 67.4 90 7 6 31 69 87 7 7 31 71.9 80 7 8 31 75.8 71 7 9 31 78.7 64 7 10 31 81.5 58 7 11 31 83.1 54 7 12 31 84.6 51 7 13 31 83.9 52 7 14 31 83.6 54 7 15 31 82.7 56 7 16 31 83.5 54 7 17 31 82.3 57 7 18 31 79.8 62 7 19 31 76.8 68 7 20 31 75.4 72 7 21 31 73.8 76 7 22 31 72.7 80 7 23 31 71.7 82 8 0 31 70.4 84 8 1 31 69.3 86 8 2 31 68.2 88 8 3 31 67.5 89 8 4 31 66.9 90 8 5 31 66.4 91 8 6 31 67.8 89 8 7 31 70.7 82 8 8 31 74 73 8 9 31 77.4 65 8 10 31 79.2 59 8 11 31 80.8 56 8 12 31 82.1 55 8 13 31 82.7 54 8 14 31 82.9 54On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 48 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 8 15 31 82.6 55 8 16 31 82 55 8 17 31 80.8 57 8 18 31 78.6 62 8 19 31 76.2 67 8 20 31 74.8 71 8 21 31 73.7 74 8 22 31 72.2 78 8 23 31 71.1 81 9 0 30 65.3 89 9 1 30 64.6 90 9 2 30 64 92 9 3 30 63.4 93 9 4 30 63 93 9 5 30 62.6 93 9 6 30 63.3 92 9 7 30 65.2 89 9 8 30 68.7 80 9 9 30 71.9 71 9 10 30 74.3 64 9 11 30 75.1 62 9 12 30 76.5 59 9 13 30 77.6 58 9 14 30 77.5 58 9 15 30 77.1 59 9 16 30 76.1 62 9 17 30 73.9 67 9 18 30 70.7 74 9 19 30 69.4 78 9 20 30 68.1 82 9 21 30 67 84 9 22 30 66.2 87 9 23 30 65.3 89 10 0 31 51.7 84 10 1 31 51.1 85 10 2 31 50.8 85 10 3 31 49.9 86 10 4 31 49.1 88 10 5 31 48.8 88 10 6 31 48.4 88 10 7 31 51.6 82 10 8 31 55.7 73 10 9 31 59.6 64 10 10 31 62.6 57 10 11 31 64.8 52 10 12 31 66.1 50 10 13 31 66.7 48 10 14 31 66.7 48 10 15 31 66.2 49On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 49 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 10 16 31 64.4 52 10 17 31 60.7 59 10 18 31 58.5 64 10 19 31 56.7 68 10 20 31 55.4 73 10 21 31 53.9 78 10 22 31 52.7 81 10 23 31 52 83 11 0 30 41.9 76 11 1 30 41.1 78 11 2 30 40.8 78 11 3 30 40.6 77 11 4 30 39.9 78 11 5 30 39.6 79 11 6 30 39.6 79 11 7 30 40.3 79 11 8 30 44.5 70 11 9 30 48.1 59 11 10 30 50.9 53 11 11 30 53.2 48 11 12 30 54.6 45 11 13 30 55.5 43 11 14 30 55.5 44 11 15 30 54.8 45 11 16 30 53.1 48 11 17 30 49.8 54 11 18 30 48.2 58 11 19 30 46.8 61 11 20 30 46.1 64 11 21 30 44.8 66 11 22 30 43.8 69 11 23 30 42.4 74 12 0 31 41.2 78 12 1 31 41 78 12 2 31 39.8 80 12 3 31 40 79 12 4 31 39.7 81 12 5 31 39.5 80 12 6 31 39.6 79 12 7 31 39.2 80 12 8 31 41.2 76 12 9 31 43.5 71 12 10 31 45.5 66 12 11 31 47.4 62 12 12 31 48.7 59 12 13 31 49.9 57 12 14 31 50.3 56 12 15 31 50 56 12 16 31 48.5 59On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 50 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 12 17 31 46.5 64 12 18 31 45.2 66 12 19 31 44.3 68 12 20 31 43.3 71 12 21 31 42.6 72 12 22 31 42.1 74 12 23 31 41.6 74

5.2.2 Davidson and Guilford County Te mperature and Relative Humidity

STATE CLIMATE OFFICE OF NORTH CAROLINA NC CRONOS Database 2008 data retrieval from Greensboro Airport (KGSO) Greensboro, Guilford County Latitude: 36.0977469 Longitude: -79.9372975 Elevation: 926 ft.

Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 1 0 31 36.2 62 1 1 31 35.8 63 1 2 31 35.9 63 1 3 30 36.5 65 1 4 31 35.8 65 1 5 31 35 66 1 6 31 34.2 66 1 7 31 34.4 65 1 8 31 36.6 62 1 9 31 39.2 55 1 10 31 41.5 49 1 11 31 43.6 45 1 12 31 45.5 42 1 13 31 46.5 41 1 14 30 46.9 40 1 15 30 46.6 41 1 16 30 45.2 43 1 17 31 42.9 46 1 18 31 41.1 50 1 19 31 39.9 52 1 20 31 39 54 1 21 31 38.5 56 1 22 31 37.7 57 1 23 31 36.8 60 2 0 29 40.9 64 2 1 29 39.7 66On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 51 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 2 2 29 39.3 66 2 3 29 38.7 67 2 4 29 38.2 68 2 5 29 37.9 68 2 6 29 37.5 69 2 7 29 38.4 69 2 8 29 40.9 65 2 9 29 43.5 59 2 10 29 46.6 55 2 11 29 49.1 50 2 12 29 51.2 47 2 13 29 52.9 45 2 14 29 53.6 45 2 15 29 53.2 46 2 16 29 52.3 47 2 17 29 50.1 50 2 18 29 48.5 53 2 19 29 46.7 55 2 20 29 45.4 57 2 21 29 44.1 59 2 22 29 42.7 62 2 23 29 42 63 3 0 31 47.4 61 3 1 31 46.7 61 3 2 31 45.4 63 3 3 31 44.7 65 3 4 31 44 66 3 5 31 43.4 66 3 6 31 43.1 67 3 7 31 46 62 3 8 31 48.9 56 3 9 31 51.6 51 3 10 31 54.2 47 3 11 31 56.7 42 3 12 31 58.1 40 3 13 31 59 39 3 14 31 59.3 41 3 15 31 59.4 41 3 16 31 58.4 42 3 17 31 56.9 44 3 18 31 55.1 46 3 19 31 53.4 50 3 20 31 52.3 53 3 21 31 50.6 56 3 22 31 49.7 58 3 23 31 48.6 60 4 0 30 53.6 76 4 1 30 53.2 76 4 2 30 52 78On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 52 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 4 3 30 51.5 78 4 4 30 50.8 78 4 5 30 50.5 78 4 6 30 52.1 76 4 7 30 55 69 4 8 30 57.7 64 4 9 30 59.9 60 4 10 30 61.7 56 4 11 30 63 53 4 12 30 64.1 53 4 13 30 65.2 51 4 14 30 65.1 51 4 15 30 64.9 53 4 16 30 64.7 53 4 17 30 63.6 54 4 18 30 61.2 59 4 19 30 59.4 62 4 20 30 58.3 64 4 21 30 57.2 67 4 22 30 55.9 69 4 23 30 54.7 72 5 0 31 60.2 69 5 1 31 59.6 70 5 2 31 58.8 73 5 3 31 58.3 74 5 4 31 57.8 75 5 5 31 57.8 75 5 6 31 60.4 71 5 7 31 63.4 65 5 8 31 66.3 59 5 9 31 68.8 55 5 10 31 70.6 51 5 11 31 72.3 48 5 12 31 73.4 46 5 13 31 74.3 44 5 14 31 74.5 45 5 15 31 74.5 44 5 16 31 73.6 45 5 17 31 72.7 46 5 18 31 70.2 51 5 19 31 67.6 55 5 20 31 65.6 59 5 21 31 64.3 62 5 22 31 63 64 5 23 31 61.9 67 6 0 30 72.4 68 6 1 30 71.7 69 6 2 30 70.7 72 6 3 30 69.5 74On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 53 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 6 4 30 68.7 76 6 5 30 69.7 75 6 6 30 72.8 69 6 7 30 76.6 61 6 8 30 79.8 54 6 9 30 82.3 48 6 10 30 85 43 6 11 30 86.3 40 6 12 30 87.8 37 6 13 30 88.4 35 6 14 30 88.6 35 6 15 30 87.5 36 6 16 30 86.4 39 6 17 30 84.1 43 6 18 30 81.4 49 6 19 30 78.9 53 6 20 30 77.2 57 6 21 30 76 59 6 22 30 74.9 61 6 23 30 73.5 64 7 0 31 72.1 74 7 1 31 70.9 78 7 2 31 70.5 78 7 3 31 70.1 79 7 4 31 69.4 81 7 5 31 69.7 80 7 6 31 72.1 76 7 7 31 75 70 7 8 31 78.1 63 7 9 31 81 56 7 10 31 82.7 52 7 11 31 84.1 48 7 12 31 85 46 7 13 31 85.2 46 7 14 31 86 44 7 15 31 85.6 45 7 16 31 84.5 48 7 17 31 83 51 7 18 31 80.5 56 7 19 31 78 61 7 20 31 76.4 66 7 21 31 75 69 7 22 31 74.1 71 7 23 31 73.2 73 8 0 31 70.9 74 8 1 31 70.4 76 8 2 31 69.5 77 8 3 31 69 79 8 4 31 68.5 79On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 54 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 8 5 31 67.9 81 8 6 31 69.9 77 8 7 31 72.9 71 8 8 31 75.7 65 8 9 31 78 59 8 10 31 80.3 54 8 11 31 82.1 51 8 12 31 83 48 8 13 31 84 47 8 14 31 83.8 48 8 15 31 83.1 48 8 16 31 82.6 48 8 17 31 81.3 51 8 18 31 79 55 8 19 31 76.9 59 8 20 31 75.3 63 8 21 31 73.9 67 8 22 31 73 69 8 23 31 72 72 9 0 30 66.5 80 9 1 30 65.7 82 9 2 30 65.3 82 9 3 30 65 83 9 4 30 64.2 85 9 5 30 63.9 85 9 6 30 64.8 83 9 7 30 66.9 79 9 8 30 69.8 72 9 9 30 71.9 68 9 10 30 73.7 63 9 11 30 75.3 59 9 12 30 76.3 57 9 13 30 76.9 56 9 14 30 77.1 56 9 15 30 76.7 57 9 16 30 76.1 59 9 17 30 74 64 9 18 30 71.9 69 9 19 30 70.3 73 9 20 30 69 74 9 21 30 68.4 76 9 22 30 67.5 78 9 23 30 66.8 80 10 0 31 52.9 77 10 1 31 52 79 10 2 31 51.1 80 10 3 31 50.4 81 10 4 31 50.2 81 10 5 31 49.4 82On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 55 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 10 6 31 49.8 81 10 7 31 53.6 75 10 8 31 57.8 64 10 9 31 60.9 57 10 10 31 62.9 53 10 11 31 64.6 50 10 12 31 65.9 47 10 13 30 67.1 46 10 14 31 67.2 44 10 15 31 66.5 44 10 16 31 64.6 49 10 17 31 61.7 54 10 18 31 59.4 60 10 19 31 57.4 65 10 20 31 55.9 69 10 21 31 55 71 10 22 31 54 73 10 23 31 52.9 75 11 0 30 43 69 11 1 30 42 72 11 2 30 41.4 73 11 3 30 41.2 73 11 4 30 40.8 73 11 5 30 40.4 74 11 6 30 40.2 74 11 7 30 42 72 11 8 30 46.5 63 11 9 30 49.6 56 11 10 30 51.6 53 11 11 30 53.3 49 11 12 30 54.4 47 11 13 30 55.4 44 11 14 30 55.3 43 11 15 30 54.8 44 11 16 30 52.6 48 11 17 30 50.5 51 11 18 30 48.2 56 11 19 30 47 59 11 20 30 45.7 62 11 21 30 44.4 66 11 22 30 44.1 67 11 23 30 43.7 68 12 0 31 43 71 12 1 31 42.2 72 12 2 31 42 71 12 3 31 41.3 72 12 4 31 41 72 12 5 31 40.8 72 12 6 31 40.7 72On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 56 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstra tion and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Month Hour Number of Records Compiled Average Temperature (F) Average Relative Humidity (%) 12 7 31 40.7 71 12 8 31 42.9 67 12 9 31 45.1 63 12 10 31 47.1 59 12 11 31 48.7 56 12 12 31 49.8 53 12 13 31 50.6 52 12 14 31 51 52 12 15 31 50.5 52 12 16 31 49 55 12 17 31 47.2 58 12 18 31 46.1 60 12 19 31 45.2 63 12 20 31 44.3 65 12 21 31 43.4 68 12 22 31 43.3 67 12 23 31 42.8 69