### aeo2010r.d111809a **2007 2008**  **2009 2010**  ReportAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Scenarioaeo2010r Datekeyd111809a Release Date December 2009



### Table 13. Natural Gas Supply**, Disposition, and Prices (trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)**  Supply, Disposition, and Prices **2007 2008**  **2009 2010**  **Production** Dry Gas Production 1/ 19.0920.56 20.60 20.01 Supplemental Natural Gas 2/ 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 **Net Imports 3.79**  **2.95 2.76**  **2.82** Pipeline 3/ 3.06 2.65 2.34 2.21 Liquefied Natural Gas 0.72 0.30 0.42 0.61 **Total Supply 22.94** **23.57 23.42**  **22.88 Consumption by Sector**  Residential 4.70 4.87 4.77 4.81 Commercial 3.01 3.12 3.07 3.20 Industrial 4/ 6.62 6.65 5.95 6.05 Natural Gas-to-Liquids Heat and Power 5/ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas to Liquids Production 6/ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Electric Power 7/ 6.84 6.66 6.86 6.55 Transportation 8/ 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Pipeline Fuel 0.62 0.63 0.61 0.62 Lease and Plant Fuel 9/ 1.18 1.28 1.29 1.25 **Total 23.02**  **23.25 22.59** **22.51 Discrepancy 10/**  **-0.08 0.32**  **0.83 0.37**  **Natural Gas Prices (2008 dollars per million Btu)**  Henry

Hub Spot Price 7.12 8.86 3.49 4.50 Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price 11/ 6.38 7.85 3.24 3.94 **(2008 dollars per thousand cubic feet)** Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price 11/ 6.56 8.07 3.33 4.05 **Delivered Prices**Residential 13.32 13.87 11.72 11.21

Commercial 11.53 12.29 9.31 8.92 Industrial 4/ 7.80 9.38 4.32 5.02 Electric Power 7/ 7.45 9.34 4.25 4.98 Transportation 12/ 14.24 16.42 11.69 12.34 **A verage 13/**  **9.45 10.83**  **6.75 7.06** 

1/ Marketed production (wet) minus extraction losses. 2/ Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed with natural gas. 3/ Includes any natural gas regasified in the Bahamas and transported via pipeline to Florida, as well as gas from Canada and Mexico. 4/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. 5/ Includes any natural gas used in the process of converting natural gas to liquid fuel that is not actually converted. 6/ Includes any natural gas converted into liquid fuel. 7/ Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators. 8/ Compressed natural gas used as vehicle fuel. 9/ Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery. 10/ Balancing item. Natural gas lost as a result of converting flow data measured at varying temperatures and pressures to a standard temperature and pressure and the merger of different data reporting systems which vary in scope, format, definition, and respondent type. In addition, 2007 and 2008 values include net storage injections. 11/ Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies. 12/ Compressed natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges. 13/ Weighted average prices. Weights used are the sectoral consumption values excluding lease, plant, and pipeline fuel. - - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2007 and 2008 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2007 supply values; and lease, plant, and pipeline fuel consumption: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0131(2007) (Washington, DC, January, 2009). 2008 supply values; and lease, plant, and pipeline fuel consumption; and wellhead price: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2009/07) (Washington, DC, July 2009). Other 2007 and 2008 consumption based on: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2008, DOE/EIA-0384(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2009). 2007 wellhead price: Minerals Management Service and EIA, Natural Gas Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0131(2007) (Washington, DC, January, 2009). 2007 residential and commercial delivered prices: EIA, Natural Gas Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0131(2007) (Washington, DC, January, 2009). 2008 residential and commercial delivered prices: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130 (2009/07) (Washington, DC, July 2009). 2007 and 2008 electric power prices: EIA, Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226, April 2008 and April 2009, Table 4.13.B. 2007 and 2008 industrial delivered prices are estimated based on: EIA, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey and industrial and wellhead prices from the Natural Gas Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0131(2007) (Washington, DC, January, 2009) and the Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2009/07) (Washington, DC, July 2009). 2007 transportation sector delivered prices are based on: EIA, Natural Gas Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0131(2007) (Washington, DC, January, 2009) and estimated state taxes, federal taxes, and dispensing costs or charges. 2008 transportation sector delivered prices are model results. Projections: EIA, AEO2010 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2010r.d111809a.**2011 2012**  **2013 2014**  **2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019**

Reference case

**2011 2012**  **2013 2014**  **2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019**

19.46 19.28 18.90 18.91 19.29 19.30 19.42 19.59 19.79 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 **2.78 2.62**  **2.36 2.32**  **2.38 2.48**  **2.57 2.58**  **2.59** 2.08 1.81 1.48 1.34 1.29 1.25 1.19 1.14 1.11 0.70 0.82 0.87 0.97 1.09 1.23 1.38 1.45 1.48 **22.30 21.97** **21.32 21.29** **21.73 21.85** **22.06 22.24** **22.44**

4.66 4.66 4.67 4.69 4.71 4.74 4.75 4.77 4.79 3.18 3.19 3.18 3.21 3.23 3.25 3.27 3.29 3.32 6.22 6.52 6.73 6.86 6.88 6.91 6.93 6.98 7.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.11 5.68 5.04 4.82 5.18 5.23 5.38 5.46 5.56 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.61 1.18 1.13 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.09 **21.99 21.82**  **21.32 21.29** **21.74 21.86** **22.07 22.25** **22.45 0.31**  **0.15 0.00**  **0.00 -0.01**  **-0.01 -0.01**  **-0.01 -0.02** 

5.68 6.17 6.13 6.09 6.27 6.38 6.38 6.43 6.51 5.02 5.45 5.42 5.38 5.54 5.63 5.64 5.69 5.75

5.16 5.61 5.57 5.53 5.70 5.79 5.80 5.84 5.9112.12 12.21 11.81 11.74 11.89 11.99 12.03 12.10 12.18

10.01 10.36 10.20 10.14 10.28 10.38 10.40 10.46 10.53 6.14 6.58 6.52 6.47 6.63 6.70 6.70 6.74 6.79 5.98 6.34 6.10 6.06 6.24 6.33 6.34 6.39 6.45 13.47 13.88 13.75 13.64 13.76 13.80 13.77 13.76 13.77 **8.09 8.43**  **8.28 8.24**  **8.37 8.45**  **8.45 8.50**  **8.56**

3/ Includes any natural gas regasified in the Bahamas and transported via pipeline to Florida, as well as gas from Canada and Mexico. 4/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public.

12/ Compressed natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges.

Sources: 2007 supply values; and lease, plant, and pipeline fuel consumption: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0131(2007) (Washington, DC, January, 2009). 2008 supply values; and lease, plant, and pipeline fuel consumption; and wellhead price: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2009/07) (Washington, DC, July 2009). 2007 wellhead price: Minerals Management Service and EIA, Natural Gas Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0131(2007) (Washington, DC, January, 2009). 2007 residential and commercial delivered prices: EIA, Natural Gas Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0131(2007) (Washington, DC, January, 2009).

and estimated state taxes, federal taxes, and dispensing costs or charges. 2008 transportation sector delivered prices are model results.**2020 2021**  **2022 2023**  **2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028**

**2020 2021**  **2022 2023**  **2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028**

19.98 19.92 20.10 20.5321.17 21.31 21.6521.8522.09 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 **2.57 2.58**  **2.53 2.34**  **2.22 2.17**  **2.10 2.06**  **2.00** 1.07 1.07 1.05 0.93 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.92 0.94 1.50 1.51 1.48 1.41 1.34 1.28 1.21 1.14 1.07 **22.61 22.56** **22.69 22.94** **23.46 23.54** **23.82 23.98** **24.16**

4.83 4.83 4.84 4.85 4.89 4.89 4.91 4.91 4.92 3.33 3.35 3.37 3.39 3.42 3.45 3.48 3.50 3.52 7.03 7.01 6.98 6.95 6.96 6.94 6.88 6.86 6.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.66 5.60 5.71 5.89 6.23 6.28 6.57 6.70 6.88 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.62 0.61 0.62 0.65 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.14 1.19 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.22 **22.63 22.58** **22.71 22.96** **23.49 23.57** **23.86 24.02**  **24.20 -0.02**  **-0.02 -0.02**  **-0.03 -0.03**  **-0.03 -0.04**  **-0.04 -0.04** 

6.64 6.74 6.93 6.96 6.91 6.99 7.15 7.29 7.53 5.87 5.96 6.12 6.15 6.11 6.18 6.32 6.44 6.65

6.03 6.12 6.29 6.32 6.28 6.35 6.50 6.62 6.8412.30 12.42 12.62 12.64 12.55 12.65 12.82 13.03 13.28

10.65 10.76 10.96 11.00 10.93 11.01 11.18 11.36 11.61 6.89 6.98 7.17 7.22 7.17 7.22 7.36 7.50 7.73 6.59 6.69 6.88 6.92 6.88 6.94 7.10 7.24 7.47 13.83 13.86 13.97 13.93 13.79 13.82 13.93 14.05 14.23 **8.68 8.79**  **8.98 9.01**  **8.93 9.00**  **9.14 9.29**  **9.52 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032 2033**  **2034 2035** 

**2008-**

**2029 2030**  **2031 2032**  **2033 2034**  **2035 2035** 

22.26 22.3822.53 22.71 22.96 23.1823.27 0.5% 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.6% **1.91 1.84**  **1.79 1.73**  **1.62 1.53**  **1.46 -2.6%**  0.94 0.94 0.95 0.92 0.83 0.74 0.64-5.1% 0.98 0.89 0.84 0.81 0.79 0.80 0.83 3.8% **24.24 24.28** **24.38 24.50** **24.64 24.78** **24.80 0.2%** 

4.90 4.89 4.89 4.90 4.88 4.88 4.87 0.0% 3.54 3.55 3.57 3.59 3.62 3.65 3.69 0.6% 6.78 6.74 6.74 6.72 6.72 6.72 6.72 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00- - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00- - 6.99 7.04 7.13 7.23 7.34 7.43 7.42 0.4% 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 5.9% 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.5% 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.25-0.1% **24.29 24.33** **24.43 24.56** **24.70 24.84** **24.86 0.2%**  **-0.05 -0.05**  **-0.05 -0.06**  **-0.06 -0.06**  **-0.07**- -

7.77 8.05 8.39 8.50 8.53 8.75 8.88 0.0% 6.87 7.11 7.41 7.51 7.53 7.73 7.84 0.0%

7.06 7.31 7.62 7.72 7.75 7.94 8.06 0.0%13.55 13.83 14.18 14.34 14.44 14.66 14.82 0.2%

11.85 12.12 12.46 12.61 12.68 12.88 13.03 0.2% 7.95 8.21 8.53 8.64 8.66 8.86 8.99-0.2% 7.71 7.94 8.24 8.36 8.39 8.58 8.69-0.3% 14.40 14.60 14.88 14.96 14.97 15.12 15.21 -0.3% **9.76 10.01**  **10.33 10.46**  **10.50 10.70**  **10.83 0.0%**