Report on Data Collection and 

Estimated Future Unit Sales of 

Five Lamp Types 

Building Technologies Program 

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 

U.S. Department of Energy 

December 18, 2008 
TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 2 

II. Definitions and Forecast Methodology ...................................................................................... 4 

A. Definitions .............................................................................................................................. 4 

1. Rough Service Lamps ......................................................................................................... 4 

2. Vibration Service Lamps .................................................................................................... 5 

3. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps ......................................................................................... 6 

4. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps ................................................ 6 

5. Shatter-Resistant Lamps ..................................................................................................... 7 

B. Forecast Methodology ............................................................................................................ 8 

III. Unit Sales Forecast Estimates ................................................................................................. 10 

A. Rough Service Lamps .......................................................................................................... 10 

B. Vibration Service Lamps ...................................................................................................... 11 

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps .......................................................................................... 13 

D. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps ................................................. 15 

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps ....................................................................................................... 17 

IV. Proceedings If the Index Is Exceeded ..................................................................................... 20 

A. Rough Service Lamps .......................................................................................................... 20 

B. Vibration Service Lamps ...................................................................................................... 21 

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps .......................................................................................... 21 

D. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps ................................................. 22 

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps ....................................................................................................... 22 

F. Potential Termination of Data Collection ............................................................................. 23 

G. Review Under the Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review ....................................... 23 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table III.1 Rough Service Lamp Shipments and Benchmark Unit Sales Estimate ...................... 11 

Table III.2 Vibration Service Lamp Shipments and Unit Sales Estimate ..................................... 13 

Table III.3 Three-Way Incandescent Lamp Shipments and Benchmark Unit Sales Estimate ..... 15 

Table III.4 2,601−3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps Shipments and Benchmark 

Unit Sales Estimate ....................................................................................................................... 17 

Table III.5 Shatter-Resistant Lamp Shipments and Benchmark Unit Sales Estimate .................. 19 

1
I. Introduction 

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) (Pub. L. 110-140) was 

enacted on December 19, 2007. Among the requirements of subtitle B of title III of EISA 2007 

were provisions directing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to collect, analyze and monitor 

unit sales of five lamp types (i.e., rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-way 

incandescent lamps, 2,601–3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and shatter resistant 

lamps). Specifically, section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 amends section 325(l) of the Energy 

Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) by adding paragraph (4)(B) which generally directs DOE 

in consultation with the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) to (1) collect 

unit sales data for each of the five lamp types and (2) construct a spreadsheet model for each of 

the five lamp types based on coincident economic indicators that closely match the historical 

annual growth rates of each lamp type to provide a neutral benchmark estimate of future unit 

sales. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(B)) Section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 also amends section 325(l) 

of EPCA by adding paragraph (4)(C). This paragraph, in part, generally directs DOE, to collect 

unit sales data for calendar years 2010 through 2025 in consultation with NEMA for each of the 

five lamp types. DOE must then compare the actual lamp sales in that year with the benchmark 

estimate to determine if the unit sales projection has been exceeded. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C)) 

In section III of this report, DOE presents the data collected in consultation with NEMA, the 

model DOE constructed for each lamp type, and the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2010 

through 2025. 

2
EISA 2007 also amends section 325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraphs (4)(D) through 

(4)(H) which state that if DOE finds that the unit sales for a given lamp in any year between 

2010 and 2025 exceed the benchmark estimate of unit sales by at least 100 percent (i.e., more 

than double the anticipated sales), then DOE must take regulatory action. (42 U.S.C. 

6295(l)(4)(D) – (H)) For 2,601–3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, DOE must 

adopt a prescribed regulatory standard and for the other four types of lamp, the statute requires 

DOE to initiate an accelerated rulemaking. If the Secretary fails to complete the accelerated 

rulemakings within one year of the end of the previous calendar year, the statute provides a 

“backstop requirement” for each lamp type. Section IV of this report discusses the regulatory 

procedure that DOE would follow if the actual unit sales for a lamp type in any one year exceed 

the benchmark unit sales estimate by at least 100 percent. 

This report, the accompanying Notice of Data Availability (NODA), and spreadsheet 

models that generate the benchmark unit sales estimate for each of the five lamp types as 

fulfilling the requirements of EPCA section 325(l)(4)(B). In this analysis, DOE uses (and intends 

to continue to use) manufacturer shipments as a surrogate for unit sales. This assumption 

presumes that retailer inventories remain constant from year to year. DOE believes this is a 

reasonable assumption because the markets for these five lamp types have existed for many 

years, enabling manufacturers and retailers to establish appropriate inventory levels that reflect 

market demand. Furthermore, in the long-run, unit sales could not increase in any one year 

without manufacturer shipments increasing either that year or the following one. In either case, 

increasing unit sales must eventually result in increasing manufacturer shipments 

3
II. Definitions and Forecast Methodology 

A. Definitions 

1. Rough Service Lamps 

 Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA by adding the 

definition of a rough service lamp. The statutory definition reads as follows: “The term ‘rough 

service lamp’ means a lamp that -- (i) has a minimum of 5 supports with filament configurations 

that are C-7A, C-11, C-17, and C-22 as listed in Figure 6-12 of the 9th edition of the IESNA 

Lighting handbook, or similar configurations where lead wires are not counted as supports; and 

(ii) is designated and marketed specifically for ‘rough service’ applications, with - (I) the 

designation appearing on the lamp packaging; and (II) ,marketing materials that identify the lamp 

as being for rough service.” (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(X)) 

 Rough service lamps must have a minimum of five filament support wires (not counting 

the two connecting leads at the beginning and end of the filament), and must be designated and 

marketed for “rough service” applications. These lamps are typically used in applications where 

an incandescent lamp is subject to mechanical shock or vibration while it is operating. Standard 

incandescent lamps have only two support wires (which also serve as conductors), one at each 

end of the filament coil. When operating (i.e., when the tungsten filament is glowing so hot that 

it emits light), the filament is brittle, and rough service applications could cause it to break 

prematurely. To address this problem, lamp manufacturers developed lamp designs that 

incorporate additional support wires along the length of the filament to ensure that it has support 

not just at each end, but at several other points. The additional support protects the filament 

during operation and enables longer operating life for incandescent lamps in rough service 

4
applications. Typical applications for these lamps might include commercial hallways and 

stairwells, gyms, storage areas, and security areas. 

2. Vibration Service Lamps 

 Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA by adding the 

definition of a vibration service lamp. The statutory definition reads as follows: “The term 

vibration service lamp means a lamp that -- (i) Has filament configurations that are C-5, C-7A, or 

C-9, as listed in Figure 6-12 of the 9th Edition of the IESNA Lighting Handbook or similar 

configurations; (ii) has a maximum wattage of 60 watts; (iii) is sold at retail in packages of 2 

lamps or less; and (iv) is designated and marketed specifically for vibration service or vibrationresistant applications, with -- (I) The designation appearing on the lamp packaging; and (II) 

marketing materials that identify the lamp as being vibration service only.” (42 U.S.C. 

6291(30)(AA)) 

 The statute mentions three examples of filament configurations for vibration service lamps 

in Figure 6-12 of the IESNA Lighting Handbook, one of which (i.e., C-7A) is also listed in the 

definition of rough service lamps. The definition of vibration service lamps requires that they 

have a maximum wattage of 60 watts and be sold at a retail level in packages of two lamps or 

less. Similar to rough service lamps, vibration service lamps also must be designated and 

marketed for vibration service or vibration-resistant applications. As the name suggests, these 

lamps are generally used in applications where an incandescent lamp is subject to a continuous 

low level of vibration, such as in a ceiling fan light kit. Standard incandescent lamps without 

additional filament support wires may not have a full rated life because the filament wire is 

brittle and subject to breakage at operating temperature. 

5
3. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps 

 Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA by adding the 

definition of a 3-way incandescent lamp. The statutory definition reads as follows: “The term 3-

way incandescent lamp includes an incandescent lamp that -- (i) employs 2 filaments, operated 

separately and in combination, to provide 3 light levels; and (ii) is designated on the lamp 

packaging and marketing materials as being a 3-way incandescent lamp.” (42 U.S.C. 

6291(30)(Y)) 

 Three-way lamps are commonly found in wattages such as 50, 100, and 150 watts or 30, 

70, and 100 watts. These lamps use two filaments (e.g., a 30-watt and a 70-watt filament) and 

can be operated separately to produce 305 lumens or 995 lumens, respectively, or together to 

produce 1,300 lumens. When used in 3-way sockets, these lamps allow users to control the light 

level. Three-way incandescent lamps are typically used in residential multi-purpose areas, where 

consumers may adjust the light level to be appropriate for the task they are performing. 

4. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps 

The statute does not provide a definition of 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service 

Incandescent Lamps, however DOE is interpreting this term to be a general service incandescent 

lamp1

 that emits between 2,601 and 3,300 lumens. In this lumen range, the wattages of,general 

service incandescent lamp covered are between 140 and 170 watts. Within that range, the only 

commonly made lamp that meets other general service incandescent lamp criteria is rated at 150 

 

1

 General service incandescent lamp is defined as a standard incandescent or halogen type lamp that — (I) is 

intended for general service applications; (II) has a medium screw base; (III) has a lumen range of not less than 310 

lumens and not more than 2,600 lumens; and (IV) is capable of being operated at a voltage range at least partially 

within 110 and 130 volts. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(D)) 

6
watts. Should other rated wattages enter the market that fall within this lumen range, they will be 

immediately recognizable because as required by the Energy Policy Act of 1992, all general 

service incandescent lamps must be labeled with lamp lumen output.2

5. Shatter-Resistant Lamps 

 Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA by adding the 

definition of a shatter-resistant lamp, shatter-proof lamp, and shatter-protected lamp. The 

statutory definition reads as follows: “The terms ‘shatter-resistant lamp,’ ‘shatter-proof lamp,’ 

and ‘shatter-protected lamp’ mean a lamp that -- (i) has a coating or equivalent technology that is 

compliant with NSF/ANSI 51 and is designed to contain the glass if the glass envelope of the 

lamp is broken; and (ii) is designated and marketed for the intended application, with (I) the 

designation on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing materials that identify the lamp as being 

shatter-resistant, shatter-proof, or shatter-protected.” (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(Z)) Although the 

definition provides three names commonly used to refer to these lamps, DOE simply calls them 

“shatter-resistant lamps.” 

 Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a special coating designed to prevent glass shards from 

being strewn if a lamp’s glass envelope breaks. Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a coating 

compliant with industry standard NSF/ANSI 513

, and are labeled and marketed as shatterresistant, shatter-proof, or shatter-protected. The coatings protect the lamp from breakage due to 

heat and thermal shock that may occur from water, sleet, snow, soldering, or welding. 

 

2

 The Federal Trade Commission issued the lamp labeling requirements in 1994 (see 16 CFR 305.15(a), (b) and (c)). 

59 FR 25176 (May 13, 1994). The package must display the lamp’s light output (in lumens), energy use (in watts), 

and lamp life (in hours). 

3

 This standard is published by the National Sanitation Foundation and the American National Standards Institute. 

Titled “Food Equipment Materials,” NSF/ANSI 51 applies specifically to materials and coatings used in the 

manufacturing of equipment and objects destined for contact with foodstuffs. 

7
B. Forecast Methodology 

 The statute in part requires DOE to “construct a model for each type of lamp based on 

coincident economic indicators that closely match the historical annual growth rate of the type of 

lamp to provide a neutral comparison benchmark to model future unit sales after calendar year 

2006.” (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(B)(ii)) DOE interprets this requirement to mean that the model 

should be projecting future unit sales based on historical shipments, and that DOE should be 

aware of any coincident economic indicators or influences that may affect sales. 

 DOE reviewed each of the five sets of shipment data that were collected in consultation 

with NEMA and applied two curve fits to generate unit sales estimates after calendar year 2006. 

One curve fit applies a linear regression to the historical data and extends that line into the future. 

The other curve fit applies an exponential growth function to the shipment data and projects unit 

sales into the future. For this calculation, linear regression treats the year as a dependent variable 

and shipments as the independent variable. The curve fit is modeled by minimizing the 

differences among the data points and the best curve-fit linear line using the least squares 

function.4

 The exponential curve fit is also a regression function and uses the same least squares 

function to find the best fit. However, this technique fits the data to an exponential curve rather 

than a linear line. For some data sets, an exponential curve provides a better characterization of 

the historical data, and therefore a better projection of the future data. 

 For 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and 

 

4

 The least squares function is a tool that DOE uses to minimize the sum of the squared residual differences between 

the actual historical data points and the modeled value (i.e., the linear curve fit). In minimizing this value, the 

resulting curve fit will represent the best fit possible to the data provided. 

8
shatter resistant lamps, DOE found that the linear and exponential curve fits produced nearly the 

same estimates of unit sales (i.e., the difference between the two forecasted values was less than 

1 or 2 percent). However, for rough service and vibration service lamps, the linear curve fit 

projects lamp unit sales will decline to zero for both lamp types by 2018. In contrast, the 

exponential curve fit projected a more gradual decline in unit sales, such that lamps will still be 

sold beyond 2018. DOE discusses this finding in more detail in section III, where it examines 

each of the five lamp type models and the benchmark unit sales estimates. 

9
III. Unit Sales Forecast Estimates 

A. Rough Service Lamps 

 In consultation with NEMA, DOE collected shipment data for rough service lamps from 

1990 through 2006. As stated previously, DOE uses shipment data as a surrogate for unit sales 

data in this analysis. The rough service lamp shipment data reflect a peak in 1990 at 

approximately 18 million units with a general trend downward to approximately 8 million units 

in 2006. DOE applied two curve fits to the historical data, resulting in two different projections 

between 2010 and 2025. The linear regression forecast projected a constant slope steady decline 

in which unit sales of rough service lamps are estimated to end in 2018. The exponential curve fit 

also projects a decline in unit sales, but the forecast has a more asymptotic5

 shape as it reduces 

unit sales between 2010 and 2025. After considering the results of these two projections and the 

likelihood of a continuing need for rough service lamps in certain specialty applications, DOE 

chose to base its future unit sales model on the exponential curve fit. The exponential curve fit 

projects that rough service lamp unit sales will decrease from approximately 7.6 million units in 

2006 to approximately 3 million units in 2025, a reduction of 60 percent. DOE expects the unit 

sales of rough service lamps to continue to decline from 2010 through 2025, as they did between 

1990 and 2006. DOE is not aware of any evidence or changes in market demand that would 

support a projection of all unit sales of rough service lamps (and thereby, all sockets currently 

using these lamps) ending abruptly in 2018. Rather, DOE expects these applications will still 

exist in 2018 and beyond, albeit in progressively smaller quantities. 

 Table III.1 presents the shipment data collected in consultation with NEMA and the 

 

5

 In the benchmark unit sales estimate, the asymptotic curve trends toward zero between 2010 and 2025 but does not 

intersect with zero. 

10
benchmark unit sales estimate DOE prepared from those data for rough service lamps. The 

results presented in the column labeled “benchmark unit sales estimate” represent the unit sales 

projection for rough service lamps. The first year of unit sales reported for these lamps is 2010 

because that year is the first one DOE is required to compare against actual unit sales. (42 

U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C)) The years 2007, 2008 and 2009 are not benchmark years under EPCA 

section 325(l)(4)(C)(i) and therefore are omitted from this table. However, shipment estimates 

for those years are available in DOE’s spreadsheet model for this lamp type. 

Table III.1 Rough Service Lamp Shipments and Benchmark Unit Sales Estimate 

Calendar 

Year 

NEMA Shipment 

Data Provided 

thousands

Calendar 

Year 

Benchmark Unit 

Sales Estimate 

thousands

1990 18,251 2010 6,395 

1991 15,920 2011 6,080 

1992 15,860 2012 5,780 

1993 15,289 2013 5,495 

1994 16,296 2014 5,224 

1995 15,400 2015 4,967 

1996 12,090 2016 4,722 

1997 10,995 2017 4,489 

1998 9,315 2018 4,268 

1999 9,869 2019 4,057 

2000 11,034 2020 3,857 

2001 13,522 2021 3,667 

2002 9,379 2022 3,486 

2003 9,019 2023 3,314 

2004 8,818 2024 3,151 

2005 8,211 2025 2,995 

2006 7,661 

B. Vibration Service Lamps 

 In consultation with NEMA, DOE collected shipment data for vibration service lamps from 

1990 through 2006. As stated previously, DOE uses shipment data as a surrogate for unit sales 

11
data in this analysis. The vibration service lamp shipment data reflect a peak in 1990 at 

approximately 9 million units with a general trend downward to approximately 4 million units in 

2006. DOE applied two curve fits to the historical data, resulting in two different projections 

between 2010 and 2025. The linear regression forecast projected a constant slope steady decline 

in which unit sales of vibration service lamps are estimated to end in 2018. The exponential 

curve fit also projects a decline in sales, but the forecast has a more asymptotic shape as it 

reduces unit sales between 2010 and 2025. After considering the results of these two projections 

and the likelihood of a continuing need for vibration service lamps in certain specialty 

applications such as ceiling fan light kits, DOE chose to base its future unit sales model on the 

exponential curve fit. The exponential curve fit projects that vibration service lamp unit sales 

will decrease from approximately 4 million units in 2006 to approximately 1.5 million units in 

2025⎯a reduction of approximately 60 percent. DOE expects the unit sales of vibration service 

lamps to decline between 2010 and 2025, as they did between 1990 and 2006. DOE is not aware 

of any evidence or changes in market demand that would support a projection of all unit sales of 

rough service lamps (and thereby, all sockets currently using these lamps) ending abruptly in 

2018. Rather, DOE expects these applications will still exist in 2018 and beyond, albeit in 

progressively smaller quantities. 

 Table III.2 presents the shipment data collected in consultation with NEMA and the 

benchmark unit sales estimate DOE prepared from those data for vibration service lamps. The 

results presented in the column labeled “benchmark unit sales estimate” represent the unit sales 

projection for vibration service lamps. The first year of unit sales reported for these lamps is 

2010 because that year is the first one DOE is required to compare against actual unit sales. (42 

12
U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C)) The years 2007, 2008 and 2009 are not benchmark years under EPCA 

section 325(l)(4)(C)(i) and therefore are omitted from this table. However, shipment estimates 

for those years are available in DOE’s spreadsheet model for this lamp type. 

Table III.2 Vibration Service Lamp Shipments and Unit Sales Estimate 

Calendar 

Year 

NEMA Shipment 

Data Provided 

thousands

Calendar 

Year 

Benchmark Unit 

Sales Estimate 

thousands

1990 9,533 2010 3,341 

1991 8,315 2011 3,176 

1992 8,283 2012 3,019 

1993 7,986 2013 2,871 

1994 8,512 2014 2,729 

1995 8,044 2015 2,594 

1996 6,314 2016 2,467 

1997 5,743 2017 2,345 

1998 4,865 2018 2,229 

1999 5,154 2019 2,119 

2000 5,763 2020 2,015 

2001 7,063 2021 1,916 

2002 4,899 2022 1,821 

2003 4,711 2023 1,731 

2004 4,606 2024 1,646 

2005 4,289 2025 1,565 

2006 4,002 

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps 

 In consultation with NEMA, DOE collected shipment data for 3-way incandescent lamps 

from 1990 through 2006. As stated previously, DOE uses the shipment data as a surrogate for 

unit sales data in this analysis. The 3-way incandescent lamp shipment data reflect a peak in 

1997 at approximately 67 million units followed by a general trend downward to approximately 

43 million units in 2006. DOE applied two curve fits to the historical data, resulting in similar 

projections between 2010 and 2025. Both projections indicate that unit sales will trend 

13
downward, at a gradual rate approaching 44 million units in 2025. The greatest difference 

between the linear regression curve fit and the exponential curve fit occurs in 2025, when the 

exponential curve fit projects approximately 0.5 million more unit sales. In that year, the 

difference in unit sales between the two forecasts is less than 2 percent. Therefore, DOE would 

be satisfied that either spreadsheet model would generate a reasonable benchmark unit sales 

estimate, but is selecting the exponential curve fit for consistency with the selection made for 

rough service and vibration service lamps. 

 Table III.3 presents the shipment data collected in consultation with NEMA and the 

benchmark unit sales estimate DOE prepared from those data for 3-way incandescent lamps. The 

results presented in the column labeled “benchmark unit sales estimate” represent the unit sales 

projection for 3-way incandescent lamps. The first year of unit sales reported for these lamps is 

2010 because that year is the first one DOE is required to compare against actual unit sales. (42 

U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C)) The years 2007, 2008 and 2009 are not benchmark years under EPCA 

section 325(l)(4)(C)(i) and therefore are omitted from this table. However, shipment estimates 

for those years are available in DOE’s spreadsheet model for this lamp type. 

14
Table III.3 Three-Way Incandescent Lamp Shipments and Benchmark Unit Sales Estimate 

Calendar 

Year 

NEMA Shipment 

Data Provided 

thousands

Calendar 

Year 

Benchmark Unit 

Sales Estimate 

thousands

1990 61,952 2010 51,177 

1991 59,858 2011 50,652 

1992 60,566 2012 50,131 

1993 58,396 2013 49,617 

1994 55,867 2014 49,107 

1995 58,570 2015 48,603 

1996 58,924 2016 48,104 

1997 67,047 2017 47,610 

1998 60,374 2018 47,121 

1999 61,294 2019 46,637 

2000 58,034 2020 46,158 

2001 58,893 2021 45,684 

2002 59,234 2022 45,215 

2003 56,870 2023 44,750 

2004 57,610 2024 44,291 

2005 52,221 2025 43,836 

2006 42,825 

D. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps 

 In consultation with NEMA, DOE collected shipment data for 2,601−3,300 Lumen General 

Service Incandescent Lamps from 1990 through 2006. As stated previously, DOE uses the 

shipment data as a surrogate for unit sales data in this analysis. The 2,601—3,300 Lumen 

General Service Incandescent Lamp data reflect a peak in 1997 at approximately 39 million units 

with lower unit sales occurring on either side of that peak. Unit sales ranged from approximately 

30 to 33 million between 1990 and 1995 and from 28 to 34 million between 2001 and 2006. 

DOE applied the two curve fits to the historical data, resulting in nearly identical shipment 

projections between 2010 and 2025. Both projections indicate that unit sales will trend slightly 

upward from approximately 34 million in 2010 to approximately 35 million in 2025. The 

difference between the linear regression and exponential curve fit is never greater than one-half 

15
of 1 percent for any year. Therefore, DOE would be satisfied that either spreadsheet model 

would generate a reasonable benchmark unit sales estimate, but is selecting the exponential curve 

fit for consistency with the selection made for rough service, vibration service and 3-way 

incandescent lamps. 

 Table III.4 presents the shipment data collected in consultation with NEMA and the 

benchmark unit sales estimate DOE prepared from those data for 2,601−3,300 lumen general 

service incandescent lamps. The results presented in the column labeled “benchmark unit sales 

estimate” represent the unit sales projection for 2,601—3,300 lumen general service 

incandescent lamps. The first year of unit sales reported for these lamps is 2010 because that 

year is the first one DOE is required to compare against actual unit sales. (42 U.S.C. 

6295(l)(4)(C)) The years 2007, 2008 and 2009 are not benchmark years under EPCA section 

325(l)(4)(C)(i) and therefore are omitted from this table. However, shipment estimates for those 

years are available in DOE’s spreadsheet model for this lamp type. 

16
Table III.4 2,601−3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps Shipments and 

Benchmark Unit Sales Estimate 

Calendar 

Year 

NEMA Shipment 

Data Provided 

thousands

Calendar 

Year 

Benchmark Unit 

Sales Estimate 

thousands

1990 31,383 2010 33,848 

1991 30,639 2011 33,913 

1992 30,612 2012 33,979 

1993 31,493 2013 34,044 

1994 29,706 2014 34,110 

1995 32,371 2015 34,175 

1996 35,306 2016 34,241 

1997 39,090 2017 34,307 

1998 35,743 2018 34,373 

1999 36,602 2019 34,439 

2000 37,179 2020 34,506 

2001 34,576 2021 34,572 

2002 33,632 2022 34,639 

2003 33,980 2023 34,705 

2004 32,374 2024 34,772 

2005 31,065 2025 34,839 

2006 28,541 

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps 

 In consultation with NEMA, DOE collected shipment data for shatter-resistant lamps from 

1990 through 2006. As stated previously, DOE uses the shipment data as a surrogate for unit 

sales data in this analysis. The shatter-resistant lamp data reflect a peak in 1997 at approximately 

2 million units with lower unit sales occurring on either side of that peak. Unit sales ranged from 

approximately 1.4 to 1.5 million between 1990 and 1995 and from approximately 1.4 to 1.7 

million between 2001 and 2006. DOE applied two curve fits to the historical data, resulting in 

nearly identical shipment projections between 2010 and 2025. Both projections indicate that unit 

sales will trend slightly upward from approximately 1.6 million units in 2010 to approximately 

1.7 million units in 2025. The difference between the linear regression and exponential curve fit 

is never greater than one-half of 1 percent for any year. Therefore, DOE would be satisfied that 

17
either spreadsheet model would generate a reasonable benchmark unit sales estimate, but is 

selecting the exponential curve fit for consistency with the other four lamp types discussed 

previously. 

 Table III.5 presents the shipment data collected in consultation with NEMA and the 

benchmark unit sales estimate DOE prepared from those data for shatter-resistant lamps. The 

results presented in the column labeled “benchmark unit sales estimate” represent the unit sales 

projection for shatter-resistant lamps. The first year of unit sales reported for these lamps is 

2010 because that year is the first one DOE is required to compare against actual unit sales. (42 

U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C)) The years 2007, 2008 and 2009 are not benchmark years under EPCA 

section 325(l)(4)(C)(i) and therefore are omitted from this table. However, shipment estimates 

for those years are available in DOE’s spreadsheet model for this lamp type. 

18
Table III.5 Shatter-Resistant Lamp Shipments and Benchmark Unit Sales Estimate 

Calendar 

Year 

NEMA Shipment 

Data Provided 

thousands

Calendar 

Year 

Benchmark Unit 

Sales Estimate 

thousands

1990 1,515 2010 1,655 

1991 1,481 2011 1,659 

1992 1,481 2012 1,663 

1993 1,526 2013 1,667 

1994 1,439 2014 1,671 

1995 1,570 2015 1,675 

1996 1,714 2016 1,679 

1997 1,901 2017 1,684 

1998 1,739 2018 1,688 

1999 1,780 2019 1,692 

2000 1,809 2020 1,696 

2001 1,682 2021 1,700 

2002 1,637 2022 1,705 

2003 1,655 2023 1,709 

2004 1,577 2024 1,713 

2005 1,513 2025 1,717 

2006 1,390 

19
IV. Proceedings If the Index Is Exceeded 

 Section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 in part amends paragraph 325(l)(4) of EPCA by 

adding paragraphs (D) through (H), which direct DOE to take regulatory action if the actual 

annual unit sales of any of the five lamp types exceed the predicted shipments by at least 100 

percent (i.e., more than double the benchmark unit sales estimate). (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)-(H)) 

Each year, NEMA will provide DOE with shipment data for the five lamp types from the 

previous calendar year. DOE will compare these actual shipments with the benchmark model 

estimates for each lamp type and calculate whether the index has been exceeded. If the index has 

been exceeded by at least 100 percent, then DOE must take appropriate regulatory action as 

outlined in section 325(l)(4)(D) through (H) of EPCA. DOE publishes here the statutory 

requirements to inform stakeholders of the actions DOE will take if the shipment index is 

exceeded by at least 100 percent. 

A. Rough Service Lamps 

 If the benchmark unit sales estimate for rough service lamps is exceeded by at least 100 

percent for the previous calendar year, DOE must (1) issue within 90 days of the end of the 

previous calendar year a finding that the index has been exceeded, and (2) conduct an accelerated 

energy conservation standards rulemaking for rough service lamps to be completed no later than 

1 year after the end of the previous calendar year. If the Secretary fails to complete this 

accelerated rulemaking in the allotted time, the statute provides a “backstop requirement” that 

becomes the regulatory standard for rough service lamps. This backstop requirement would 

establish standards beginning 1 year after the date of issuance of the finding that the index had 

been exceeded, and would require rough service lamps to (1) have a shatter-proof coating or 

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equivalent technology that complies with NSF/ANSI 51 and is designed to contain the glass if 

the glass envelope of the lamp is broken and to provide effective containment over the life of the 

lamp, (2) have a maximum 40-watt limitation, and (3) be sold at retail only in a package 

containing one lamp. 

B. Vibration Service Lamps 

 If the benchmark unit sales estimate for vibration service lamps is exceeded by at least 

100 percent for the previous calendar year, DOE must (1) issue within 90 days of the end of the 

previous calendar year a finding that the index has been exceeded, and (2) conduct an accelerated 

energy conservation standards rulemaking for vibration service lamps to be completed no later 

than 1 year after the end of the previous calendar year. If the Secretary fails to complete the 

accelerated rulemaking in the allotted time, the statute provides a backstop requirement that 

becomes the regulatory standard for vibration service lamps. This backstop requirement would 

establish standards beginning 1 year after the date of issuance of the finding that the index had 

been exceeded, and would require vibration service lamps to (1) have a maximum 40-watt 

limitation, and (2) be sold at retail only in a package containing 1 lamp. 

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps 

 If the benchmark unit sales estimate for 3-way incandescent lamps is exceeded by at least 

100 percent for the previous calendar year, DOE must (1) issue within 90 days of the end of the 

previous calendar year a finding that the index has been exceeded, and (2) conduct an accelerated 

energy conservation standards rulemaking for 3-way incandescent lamps to be completed no 

later than 1 year after the end of the previous calendar year. If the Secretary fails to complete the 

accelerated rulemaking in the allotted time, the statute provides a backstop requirement that 

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becomes the regulatory standard for 3-way incandescent lamps. This backstop requirement 

would establish standards beginning 1 year after the date of issuance of the finding that the index 

had been exceeded, and would require that (1) each filament in a 3-way incandescent lamp meet 

the new maximum wattage requirements for the respective lumen range established under section 

325(i)(1)(A) of EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6295(i)(1)(A)), and (2) 3-way lamps be sold at retail only in a 

package containing 1 lamp. 

D. 2,601–3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps 

 If the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2,601—3,300 lumen general service 

incandescent lamps is exceeded by at least 100 percent for the previous calendar year (or, in the 

case of a modified spectrum, in the lumen range of 1,951 through 2,475 lumens), DOE will 

impose the following energy conservation standards: (1) a maximum 95-watt limitation on 

general service incandescent lamps in the range of 2,601 through 3,300 lumens, and (2) a 

requirement that those lamps be sold at retail only in a package containing 1 lamp. 

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps 

 If the benchmark unit sales estimate for shatter-resistant lamps is exceeded by at least 100 

percent for the previous calendar year, DOE must (1) issue within 90 days of the end of the 

previous calendar year a finding that the index has been exceeded, and (2) conduct an accelerated 

energy conservation standards rulemaking for shatter-resistant lamps to be completed no later 

than 1 year after the end of the previous calendar year. If the Secretary fails to complete the 

accelerated rulemaking in the allotted time, the statute provides a backstop requirement that 

becomes the regulatory standard for shatter-resistant lamps. This backstop requirement would 

establish standards beginning 1 year after the date of issuance of the finding that the index had 

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23

been exceeded, and would require that (1) a maximum wattage limitation of 40 watts on shatterresistant lamps, and (2) a requirement that those lamps be sold at retail only in a package 

containing 1 lamp. 

F. Potential Termination of Data Collection 

If DOE issues a final rule establishing energy conservation standards for any of the five 

types of lamps for which data collection is required prior to January 1, 2025, the requirement to 

collect and model data for that type of lamp shall terminate unless, as part of the rulemaking, the 

Secretary determines that continued tracking is necessary. If, however, the Secretary imposes a 

backstop requirement as a result of a failure to complete an accelerated rulemaking in accordance 

with the statute, the requirement to collect and model data for the applicable type of lamp shall 

continue for 2 years after the effective date of the backstop requirement. (42 U.S.C. 

6295(l)(4)(I)(i)-(ii)) 

G. Review Under the Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review 

This report is being disseminated by the Department of Energy. As such, the document 

was prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government 

Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554) and information quality 

guidelines issued by the Department of Energy. This report does not constitute “influential” 

information, as that term is defined in DOE's information quality guidelines or the Office of 

Management and Budget's Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review (Bulletin).