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# OAR Box 1126 Prepped by Ollie Stewart



### Document

Number: 

# 79 ) 11-1-29

3
Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 2

Printed 4/18/20089:58:24 AM

Sheet 79of 182P. 2 

# V •

EXPOSUR E O F CHILDRE N T O LEAD-BASE D PAINT S

b y Ann e Pop e PE I Associates , Inc . 50 5 Sout hDuk e Street , Suit e 50 3 Durham , Nort hCarolin a 27701-319 6

Contrac t No . 68-02-430 9 Wor k Assignmen t No . 9 P N 3659- 9

Richar dB . Atherton , Projec t Office r Jef f Cohen , Wor k Assignmen t Manager

STRATEGIE S AND AI RSTANDARD S DIVISION U.S . ENVIRONMENTA L PROTECTIO N AGENC Y RESEARC H TRIANGL E PARK , NORT H CAROLIN A 2771 1

Januar y 198 6 

# iP. 3 1 

## :* ? < *



### DISCLAIME R
Thi s repor t wa s prepare db y PE I Associates , Inc. , Cincinnati , Ohio , unde r Contrac t No . 68-02-4309 , Wor k Assignmen t No . 9 . I t ha s bee nreviewe d b y th e Strategie s an

dAi r Standard s Divisio no f th e Offic e o f Ai r Qualit y Plannin g an

dStandards , U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , an dapprove dfo r publication . Approva l doe s no t signif y tha t the content s necessaril y reflec t th e view s andpolicie s o f th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency . Mentio n o f trad e name s o r commercia l product s i s no t intende dt o constitut e endorse men t o r recommendatio nfo r use .

n

### CONTENT S

Table s iv Acknowledgmen t v 1 . Introductio n1 2 . Mode l fo r Estimatin g Numbe r o f Childre nLivin g i nHome s Havin g Lead-Base dPain t 2 3 . Estimate s Produce db y Mode l 1 1 4 . Discussio no f Mode l Estimate s an dExposur e o f Childre nt o Leadfro m Paint s 1 8 Reference s 2 0

mP. 5



### TABLE S
Numbe r Pag e 1 Housin g andPopulatio nParameter s o f Lead-Base dPain t

Exposur e Mode l 3 2 Estimate s o f Childre nPe r Househol d4 3 State s Locate dinth e Censu s Region s o f th e Unite dStates . . 5 4 Estimate s o f Percentag e o f Housin g Unit s Buil t Durin g

Indicate dPerio dWhic hContai nLead-Base dPaint s 6 5 Estimate s o f th e Numbe r o f UnsoundOccupie dHousin g Units . . 8 6 Estimate s o f Childre nResidin g inHome s wit hLead-Base d

Paint s 1 2 7 Compariso no f PEI' s Nationa l Estimate s wit hThos e Presente d

i nth e Literatur e 1 7

i vP. 6

ACKNOWLEDGMEN T
Thi s repor t wa s prepare dfo r th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y b y PE I Associates , Inc. , Cincinnati , Ohio . Mr . Jef f Cohe nwa s th e EPA Wor k Assignmen t Manager . Mr . Davi dDunba r serve da s th e Projec t Director ; Mr . Te d Johnso nwa s th e Projec t Manager . Th e principa l autho r wa s Ms . Ann e Pope . Th e autho r woul dlik e t o than k Mr . Jef f Cohe nfo r hi s guidanc e an ddirectio n o nthi s Wor k Assignment . Th e autho r woul dals o lik e t o acknowledg e Mr . Te d Johnson , Ms . Alici a Ferdo , andMs . Donn a Sledg e fo r thei r assistanc e and cooperation .P. 7

SECTIO N 1 INTRODUCTIO N

Th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y (EPA ) i s currentl y

assessin g th e exposur e o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f ag e t o leadinth e environment . Inthi s ag e group , lea dpoisonin g occur s primaril y inchildre nwh o resid e i nolder , .deteriorating , lead-base dpainte dhome s (LPH's ) wher e th e pain t i s chalking , 1 2 3 flaking , and/o r peeling . * ' Althoug hpeelin g lead-base dpaint s ar e implicate da s a majo r sourc e o f lea dexposur e i nchildren , investigation s b y Gilber t e t al . andGalk e e t al . sugges t tha t intac t lead-base dpaint s i n 4 5 home s als o contribut e t o th e exposur e o f childre nt o lead . ' Th e amoun t o f lea di npaint , th e integrit y o f th e painte dsurfaces , andth e accessibilit y o f lead-base dpain t chip s t o childre ndetermin e th e degre e of,th e leadexposur e hazar dt o childre npose db y th e presenc e o f lead-base dpaints . I npoorl y maintaine dhome s wher e poo r housekeepin g occurs , peelin g lead-base dpaints , weathere dandpowdere dlead-base dpaints , andbroke nplaste r ar e source s o f lea dexposur e i nchildren . Unde r Wor k Assignmen t No . 9 , Contrac t No . 68-02-4309 , PE I Associates , Inc . (PEI ) develope da mode l t o estimat e 1 ) th e numbe r o f housin g unit s tha t ca nb e categorize da s LPH's , a s deteriorate danddilapidate d housin g units , an

da s deteriorate dan ddilapidate dLPH's ; and2 ) th e numbe r o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f ag e wh o resid e i nhousin g unit s tha t fal l int o eac ho f thes e categories . Thi s repor t present s estimate s mad e b y thi s mode l an

ddis cusse s whethe r estimate s o f th e numbe r o f childre nwh o liv e inhome s wit hlead base dpaint s ar e reasonabl e estimate s o f th e numbe r o f childre nexpose dt o lead-base dpaints .P. 8

SECTIO N 2 MODE L FO

RESTIMATINGNUMBE RO F CHILDRE N LIVING IN HOME S HAVIN

GLEAD-BASE D PAINT S

PE I reviewe dth e literatur e t o develo pa mode l fo r predictin g the numbe r o f LPH's , unsoun dhousin g units , an dunsoun dLPH' s i nthe Unite dState s an d th e numbe r o f childre nwh o resid e i nthes e thre e categorie s o f homes . On e difficult y

encountere di nreviewin g th e literatur e i s th e disagreemen t amon g researcher s a s t o th e leve l o f leadi npainte dsurface s tha t constitute s a hazar dt o children . Currently , the Cente r fo r Diseas e Control , CDC , consider s 2 6 home s tha t contai n0. 7 mg lead/c m i npainte dsurface s t o be hazardous . Many studies , however , defin e a hazar di nhome s t o b e the presenc e o f 1 percen t o r mor e leadi npainte dsurfaces . Thes e tw o definition s ar e no t comparable . Th e percentag e o f lea di npaint s doe s no t correspon ddirectl y o r indirectl y

t o m g 2 2 lead/c m i npainte dsurface s becaus e m g lead/cm

measure s th e leadtha t i s presen t i nsingl e an dmultipl e layer s o f pain t ona surface . I ndefinin g th e amoun t o f leadi npain t tha t present s a hazar dto children , PE I ha s decide d 2 t o us e th e curren t CD C definitio no f 0. 7 mg lead/cm . Th e ag e o f housin g unit s andth e amoun t o f leadinpainte dsurface s ar e directl y related . Prio r t o 1940 , interio r paint s containe d5 0 percen t lead b y weight . I n1940 , titantiu m dioxid e (Ti0 2 ) paint s wer e use dinadditio nt o lead-base dpaint s i nhomes . I n1955 , paint s wer e require dt o no t contai nmor e tha n1 percen t leadb y weight , an

di n1971 , th e sal e o f interio r lead-base d o paint s wa s banne di nth e Unite dStates . Toda y indoo r househol dpaint s ar e

2 9 limite dt o a leadconten t o f no t mor e tha n0.0 6 percen t b y weight . ' Many o f th e home s buil t prio r t o 1960 , however , stil l hav e lead-base dpaint s o n interio r andexterio r surfaces , plasters , an dputties . Althoug hth e surface s i nolde r home s ma y

b e coate db

y paint s containin g no lead , the underlyin g layer s o f lead-base dpaint s stil l represent a larg e sourc e o f environmenta l leadexposur e i nchildren . PE I ha s develope da lead-base dpain t exposur e mode l base dprimaril y o nth e ag e o f housin g unit s an dth e occupanc y

o f housin g unit s b

y children . Tabl e 1 list s th e parameter s o f th e model . Usin g th e housin g parameter s i nP. 9

TABL E 1 . HOUSIN GAN D POPULATIO N PARAMETER S O F LEAD-BASE D PAIN T EXPOSUR E MODE L
Numbe r o f occupie dhousin g unit s currentl y standin g whic hwer e constructe d i nfou r period s Pre-194 0 194 0 t o 195 9 196 0 t o 197 4 197 5 t o 198 0 Percentag e o f housin g unit s i neac hconstructio nperio dabov e tha t contai n painte dsurface s wit h>0. 7 m g lead/cm 2 Numbe r o f soundhousin g unit s Numbe r o f unsoun dhousin g unit s Numbe r o f childre n6-year s ol do r younge r i nthe Unite dState s an di nfou r region s o f th e Unite dState s Numbe r o f childre npe r housin g uni t

Tabl e 1 , th e mode l estimate dth e numbe r o f occupie dhomes , LPH's , unsoun d homes , an

dunsoun dLPH' s i nth e entir e Unite dState s an di nfou r region s o f th e Unite dStates . Unsoun dhousin g unit s include ddeteriorate dan ddilapidate d home s wit hhole s i nth e walls , peelin g paint , and/o r broke nan dcracke d plaster . Th e mode l als o estimate dth e numbe r o f childre nwh o reside di nal l occupie ddwellings , LPH's , unsoun dhousin g units , an dunsoun dLPH's . Th e numbe r o f occupie dhousin g unit s wa s determine dfo r eac ho f th e followin g constructio nag e group s o f homes : pre-1940 , 194 0 t o 1959 , 196 0 t o 1974 , an d197 5 t o 1980 . Thes e period s wer e selecte dt o be internall y consist en t wit hrespec t t o regulation s limitin g th e leadconten t o f paint s durin g differen t years , th e type s o f paint s use ddurin g constructio no f homes , and censu s data . Afte r determinin g the numbe r o f housin g unit s constructe di n eac hperiod , PE I estimate dth e tota l numbe r o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f ag e i n th e U.S . fro

m th e censu s data . Becaus e th e censu s dat a separate dchildre n9 year s o r younge r int o tw o ag e groups , i.e. , 0 t o 4 year s an d5 t o 9 years , PE I use ddat a containe di nInformatio nPleas e Almana c 198 5 t o calculat e the numbe r o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f age . Th e 198 3 dat a reporte dinthe Almana c indicate d 40.6 4 percen t o f th e numbe r o f 5 t o 9-year-ol dchildre nwer e 5 an d6 year sP.1 0

o f age . T o estimate.the . numbe r o f childre nwh o wer e unde r 7 year s o f age , PE I use dth e followin g equation :
Childre n0 t o 7 y r = censu s 0 t o 4 y r + (0.4604 ) (censu s 5 t o 9 yr). (1 )

T o calculat e th e numbe r o f childre npe r househol din.a narea , PE I use dEqua tio n2 :
Children/househol d= childre n0 t o 7 yr/pre-198 1 housin g unit . 

### (2 )
Tabl e 2 present s estimate s o f th e numbe r o f childre ni n household s in the entir e Unite dState s and i n eac ho f th e fou r geographica l regions ; Tabl e 3 list s th e State s in eac ho f th e fou r geographica l regions .

TABL E 2 . ESTIMATE S O F CHILDRE N PE R HOUSEHOLD 1 1 ' 1 2 ' 1 3
Location 3 Nationa l Northeas t Midwes t Sout h Wes t Numbe ro f childre n

< 7 yr , 1000' s 23,06 7 4,43 9 6,17 1 7,86 5 4,59 2 Numbe ro f friomes, 1080* 3 80,39 0 17,47 1 20,85 9 26,48 6 15,57 4 Children/househol d 0.28 7 0.25 4 0.29 6 0.29 7 0.29 5
Se e Tabl e 3 fo r lis t o f State s in eac hregion .
PE I reviewe deigh t studie s containin g estimate s o f th e numbe r o f occupie d housin g unit s i n eac hag e classificatio no f home s tha t containe don e o r mor e painte dsurface s wit h>0. 7 m g lead/cm

. Tabl e 4 present s thes e estimate s andPEI' s bes t estimat e fo r eac hconstructio nperio d ..base d o n th e literatur e review . PEI' s estimates , are : base do n th e curren t CO C definitio no f th e amoun t o f lea di n painte dsurface s tha t present s a hazar dt o children . Base don a telephon e surve y

o f loca l chil dleadpoisonin g programs , PE I assume dtha t lead abatemen t occurre di n approximatel y 1 percen t o f home s constructe dprio r t o 1940 . Inth e literature , th e proportio no f pre-194 0 dwelling s wit hlead-base dpaint sP.1 1



### TABL E 3 . STATE S LOCATE D IN TH E CENSU S REGION S O F TH E UNITE D STATE S Regio n Northeas t

Midwes t

Sout h

Wes t State s

Connecticut , Maine, , Massachusetts , Mew Hampshire , Ne w Jersey , New

York , Pennsylvania , Rhod e Island , andVermon t Illinois , Indiana , Iowa , Kansas , Michigan , Minnesota , Missouri , Nebraska , Nort hDakota , Ohio , Sout hDakota , andWisconsi n Alabama , Arkansas , Delaware , Distric t o f Columbia , Florida , Georgia , Kentucky , Louisiana , Maryland , Mississippi , North ! 

### Carolina , Oklahoma , Sout hCarolina , Tennessee , Texas , Virginia , an dWes t Virgini a Alaska , Arizona , California , Colorado , Hawaii , Idaho , Montana , Nevada , New

Mexico , Oregon , Utah , Washington , andWyomin gP.1 2

TABL E 4 . ESTIMATE S O F PERCENTAG E O F HOUSIN GUNIT S BUIL T DURIN GINDICATE D PERIO D WHIC H CONTAI N LEAD-BASE D PAINT S

Study EP A Criteri a Document li + Billic k 3 andGra y Lin-Fu 1 5 Shie r an d Hal l 1 6 Arizon a Healt h Depart men t 1 7 Minne-, „ apoli s Gilsinn 1 9
PEI' s Bes t Estimat e PEI' s Rang e Amoun t o f

lead inpainte d surfac e

>1. 5 mg/c m 2 >1. 5 mg/c m 2 >2. 0 mg/c m 2 >1. 0 mg/c m

>'1. 0 mg/c m 2 >1. 0 mg/c m 1%

2 >0. 7 mg/c m 2 >0. 7 mg/c m Pre 194 0



### 7 5

7 7

100
100 10 0

9 9

75-10 0 3 Yea r o f constructio n 194 0 t o 195 9



### 5 0 43a


### 2 6

9 0

5 0

7 0

26-9 0 196 0 t o 197 4



### 20
2 0 13 a


### 1 5

.. .



### 0

2 0

0-2 0 197 5 t o 198 0



### 0

'Estimat e 1975 .P.1 3

range dfro

m 7 5 t o 10 0 percent . Th e reporte dproportio no f home s wit hlead-base d paint s buil t fro

m 194 0 t o 195 9 varie dfro m 2 6 to 9 0 percen t wit ha naverag e valu e o f approximatel y 5 0 percent . Therefore , the proportio no f home s wit h lead-base dpaint s i s a t leas t 5 0 percen t an dth e uppe r boundi s 9 0 percent . Becaus e o f th e chang e inth e definitio no f th e amoun t o f leadinpain t tha t 2 present s a hazar dt o childre nfro m mor e tha n2. 0 t o 0. 7 m g lead/c m

, PE I in crease dth e averag e valu e o f th e proportio no f home s constructe dfro m 194 0 t o 195 9 fro m 5 0 percen t t o 7 0 percen t b y averagin g th e literature' s estimate d value s o f 5 0 percen t and9 0 percent . Fo r housin g unit s buil t fro m 196 0 t o 1974 , th e literatur e suggeste dtha t a naverag e o f 2 0 percen t o f th e home s containe d lead-base dpaints . Becaus e o f th e banonth e manufactur e o f interio r househol d paint s wit hgreate r tha n1 percen t leadconten t i n1955 , PE I assume dtha t th e literature' s estimate dpercentag e o f LPH' s buil t fro m 196 0 t o 197 4 wa s reasonable . Becaus e o f th e legislatio ni n197 1 prohibitin g leadi ninterio r househol dpaints , PE I assume dtha t no home s constructe dfro m 197 5 t o 198 0 containe dlead-base d paints . Equatio n3 wa s use dt o estimat e th e numbe r o f LPH' s buil t prio r t o 1981 , andEquatio n4 wa s use dt o estimat e th e numbe r o f childre nwh o live di nLPH' s durin g 1980 .

LPH 8 0 = °- 9 9 H pre-4 0 + °' 7 0 H 40-5 9 + °- 2 0 H 60-7 4 (3 >

Childre ni nLPH Q 0 = (LPHg 0 )(children/household ) (4 )

Th e variabl e LPH g 0 wa s th e numbe r o f occupie dLPH' s constructe dprio r t o 1981 ; H Dre _4 Q wa s th e numbe r o f occupie dhome s buil t prio r t o 1940 ; H 4 0

_ 5 9 wa s the numbe r o f occupie dhome s constructe dfro m 194 0 t o 1959 ; an

dHg Q

_ 7 « wa s th e numbe r o f occupie dhome s buil t fro m 196 0 t o 1974 . T o estimat e th e numbe r o f unsoun doccupie dhomes , PE I contacte dth e America nHousin g Surve y Departmen t i nthe U.S . Censu s Burea uan dobtaine d198 3 dat a o nth e numbe r o f unsoun dhousin g unit s i nth e Unite dState s a s a whol e and i neac ho f th e fou r censu s regions . Th e America nHousin g Surve y categorize d home s int o thre e group s accordin g t o the conditio no f wall s an dceilings : home s tha t containe dholes , home s wit hpeelin g paint , an dhome s wit hbroke nan d cracke dplaster . Tabl e 5 present s th e America nHousin g Surve y dat a ona nationa l anda regiona l basi s fo r th e thre e unsoundcondition s o f housin gLocation 3

Nationa l Northeas t Midwes t South
Wes t TABL E

Numbe r o f occupie d homes , 1000' s 84,63 8 18,22 1 21,61 8 27,93 1 16,46 7 5 . ESTIMATE S O F TH E NUMBE R

Unsoun d home s wit hhole s Number , 1000' s 5,21 0 1,31 8 1,04 0 2,64 5 

### 88 7 Percentage



### 6. 2 7. 2 4. 8 9. 5 5. 4 O

F UNSOUN

D OCCUPIED HOUSIN

G UNIT S

Unsoun d home s wit hpeelin g pain t Number , 1000' s 3,96 8 1,08 9 

### 844 1,05 0 

### 62 7 Percentag e



### 4. 7 6. 0 3. 9 3. 8 3. 8 Unsoun

d home s wit hbroken plaste r Number , 1000' s 3,17 8 

### 93 9 73 3 1,01 2 

### 46 4 Percentag e



### 3. 8 5. 2 3. 4 3. 6 2. 8

0 0 

### Se e Tabl e 3 fo r lis t o f State s i n eac hcensu s region . Source : America nHousin g Survey , Referenc e 2 0P.1 J

units . PE I chos e t o estimat e th e numbe r o f unsoun dhome s a s th e percentag e o f housin g unit s tha t hav e peelin g pain t an dt o us e th e percentag e o f home s wit hhole s a s a nuppe r boundan dth e percentag e o f home s wit hbroke nan d cracke dplaste r a s a lowe r bound . Nationally , the percentag e o f occupie d unsoun dhousin g unit s range dfro m 3. 8 t o 6. 2 percent , wit ha bes t estimat e o f 4. 7 percent . Regionally , th e Northeas t ha dth e greates t percentag e an dnumbe r o f unsoun dhome s base do nth e peelin g paint/broke nplaste r definitio no f "un sound. " Whe nth e America nHousin g Surve y dat a wer e analyze daccordin g t o ownershi po f housin g units , th e percentag e o f unsoundhome s i nal l thre e cate gorie s wa s greate r i nrenter-occupie ddwelling s tha ni nowner-occupie dhousin g unit s i nal l fou r region s o f th e Unite dStates . Th e America nHousin g Surve y percentage s o f unsoun dhousin g wer e compare d wit hdat a o npercentage s o f childre nresidin g i nunsoun dhousin g a s reporte d 1 2 1 i nstudie s b

y Jenkin s an

d0 Hara . ' Jenkin s estimate dtha t 12. 5 percen t o f th e U.S . populatio nreside s i nsubstandar d housing , primaril y i nmetropolita n ghettos . O'Har a estimate dtha t 1 0 percen t o f al l childre nyounge r tha n6-year s 2 1 liv e i ndeterioratin g home s i nurba nareas . Althoug hth e estimate dpercentage s o f unsoun dhousin g reporte db y Jenkin s an

dO'Har a wer e highe r tha nPEI' s bes t estimate , the y

wer e simila r t o th e percentag e o f renter-occupie dunsoun dhousin g i nth e Northeas t reporte db y th e America nHousin g Survey . Th e numbe r o f owner occupie dhousin g units , however , wa s approximatel y twic e th e numbe r o f renter 2 0 occupie dhomes . Becaus e th e estimate s o f Jenkin s an dO'Har a wer e fo r urba n ghett o area s wher e th e majorit y o f housin g unit s wer e no t owner-occupied , PE I assume dtha t th e nationa l an dregiona l America nHousin g Surve y percentage s o f unsoun dhousing , whic hinclud e owner-occupie dan drenter-occupie dhome s wer e reasonabl e estimate s an dprobabl y

mor e representativ e ona nationa l leve l tha n th e estimate s b

y Jenkin s an

dO'Hara . Th e estimate s o f Jenkin s an dO'Har a may , however , be mor e representativ e o f th e populatio naroun dpoin t source s o f renter - an

downer-occupie dhousing . T o calculat e th e number s o f unsoun dhome s an dunsoundLPH's , PE I use d Equation s 5 an

d6 :
Unsoun dH 8 Q = ( % unsound)(H g0 ) 

### (5 )

UnsoundLPH Q 0 = ( % unsound)(LPH 8Q ) 

### (6 )P.1 6

wher e HQ Q wa s th e numbe r o f occupie dhousin g unit s in1980 . Equation s 7 an d 8 wer e use dt o estimat e th e numbe r o f childre nwh o reside di nunsoun dhome s an dunsoun dLPH' s i n1980 : Childre ni nunsoun dHg Q = (unsoundHg 0 )(children/household ) (7 )

Childre ni nunsoun dLPH Q 0 = (unsoundLPHg Q )(children/household) . (8 )

T o improv e th e estimate s produce db y PEI' s model , th e percentage s o f un soundoccupie dhousin g unit s classifie db y ag e o f constructio nshoul dbe de termined . Becaus e o f a lac k o f information , PE I assume dtha t the percentag e o f unsoun dhousin g wa s identica l fo r al l age s o f homes . Becaus e i t i s probabl e tha t th e rat e o f deterioratio ni s highe r i nhome s buil t prio r t o 194 0 an dlowe r i nhome s buil t afte r 1970 , th e effect s o f th e ag e o f housin g unit s onth e per centag e o f unsoun dhousin g shoul dbe negligible . Therefore , th e America n Housin g Surve y

percentage s o f unsoun dhome s appear s t o b e reasonable . Base do n th e literature , th e othe r variable s estimate db y PE I i nEquation s 1 throug h8 wer e assume dt o be accurate .



### 1 0P.1 7

SECTIO N 3
ESTIMATE S PRODUCE D B YMODE L

Tabl e 6 present s th e nationa l an dregiona l mode l estimate s o f th e numbe r o f occupie dhomes , LPH's , unsoun dhomes , an dunsoun dLPH' s an

dth e numbe r o f childre nresidin g i nhome s i neac ho f thes e fou r categorie s o f homes . Nationa l "best " estimate s o f th e numbe r o f LPH's , unsoun dhomes , an dunsoun dLPH' s an

dth e numbe r o f childre nlivin g i nthes e home s wer e determine db y usin g th e estimate d percentage s o f lead-base dpaint s i nhousin g unit s accordin g t o ag e o f con structio nan

dth e America nHousin g Surve y percentag e o f unsoun dhome s wit h peelin g paint . Uppe r an dlowe r bound s wer e calculate dfo r the nationa l estimate s from th e rang e o f percentage s o f home s wit hlead-base dpaint s reporte di nth e literatur e an

dfro m th e rang e o f percentage s o f unsoun dhousin g presente db y th e America nHousin g Survey . Ona regiona l basis , PE I calculate donl y bes t estimate s o f th e numbe r o f LPH's , unsoun dhomes , an dunsoun dLPH' s andth e num be r o f childre nlivin g i neach . O f th e 80,390,00 0 occupie dnationa l housin g unit s i n1980 , 25. 8 percen t wer e buil t prio r t o 1940 , 28. 6 percen t wer e buil t betwee n194 0 an d1959 , 33. 1 percen t wer e buil t betwee n196 0 an d1974 , an

d12. 5 percen t wer e buil t betwee n 197 5 and1980 . I t i s estimate dtha t i n198 0 approximatel y 5 2 percen t o f the 2 occupie dhome s i nth e Unite dState s contai n>0. 7 m g lead/c m

i npainte dsurfaces , a leve l considere dhazardou s t o youn g children . Th e estimate dnumbe r o f LPH' s range s fro

m 21,529,00 0 t o 47,315,000 ; PEI' s bes t estimat e i s 41,964,000 . Th e esti mate dnumbe r o f unsoun dhome s i nth e Unite dState s range s fro m 3,055,00 0 t o 4,984,000 ; an

dPEI' s bes t estimat e i s 3,778,000 . Th e 3,778,00 0 home s tha t ar e classifie da s unsoun dbecaus e o f peelin g pain t accounte dfo r 4. 7 percen t o f th e tota l occupie dhousin g unit s i nth e Unite dStates . Th e numbe r o f unsoun d LPH' s varie s fro

m 818,00 0 t o 2,933,000 ; PEI' s bes t estimat e i s 1,972,000 . Th e numbe r o f unsoun dLPH' s wit hpeelin g pain t range s fro m 1,012,00 0 t o 2,223,00 0 wit hPEI' s bes t estimat e bein g 1,972,000 . Th e numbe r o f unsoun d LPH' s wit hhole s i nwall s range s from 1,335,00 0 t o 2,933,000 ; PEI' s bes t



### 1 1P.1 8

tV )

a.
tn O Q I 

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estimat e i s 2,602,000 . Th e numbe r o f unsoun dLPH' s wit hbroke no r cracke d plaste r range s from

818,00 0 t o 1,798,00 0 wit hPEI' s bes t estimat e o f 1,595,000 . A s indicate dpreviously , a nunsoun dhome coul dcontai nholes , peelin g paint , an

dbroke nplaster . PEI' s bes t estimat e o f unsoun dhousin g wa s define da s home s containing peelin g paint . Accordin g t o PEI' s bes t esti mate , 1,972,00 0 unsoun dLPH' s accoun t fo r 2. 4 percen t o f occupie dhousin g unit s i nth e Unite dStates . Unsoun dLPH' s represen t the larges t leadhazar dt o childre nbecaus e o f th e increase daccessibilit y o f peelin g lead-base dpaint s fo r ingestio nb

y childre nunde r 7 year s o f age . Th e estimate s i nTabl e 6 sugges t tha t th e numbe r o f LPH' s an dunsoun dLPH' s increase s wit hth e ag e o f the dwellings . T o determin e th e potentia l exposur e t o leadamon g childre nresidin g i n LPH's , PE I estimate dth e numbe r o f childre nresidin g i noccupie dhousin g units , LPH's , unsoun ddwellings , an dunsoundLPH's . In1980 , ther e wer e 23,071,00 0 childre nunde r th e ag e o f 7 livin g i nth e Unite dStates . Th e estimate dnumbe r o f childre nresidin g i nLPH' s range s fro m 6,179,00 0 t o 13,579,00 0 wit hPEI' s bes t estimat e o f 12,043,000 . Thes e 12,043,00 0 childre nrepresen t 5 2 percen t o f th e U.S . childre n6 year s ol dan dyounger . Th e estimate dnumbe r o f childre nresidin g i nunsoun dhousin g range s from 877,00 0 t o 1,430,000 ; PEI' s bes t estimat e i s 1,084,000 . Thi s bes t estimat e o f 1,084,00 0 i s base donth e numbe r o f childre n wh o resid e i nunsoun d home s wit hpeelin g paint . Th e numbe r o f childre nlivin g i n unsoun dLPH' s range s from 235,00 0 t o 842,000 , wit hPEI' s bes t estimat e bein g 567,000 . Th e numbe r o f childre nresidin g i nunsoun dLPH' s wit hpeelin g pain t range s fro

m 290,00 0 t o 638,000 ; PEI' s bes t estimat e i s 567,000 . Th e numbe r o f childre nresidin g i nunsoun dLPH' s wit hhole s inwall s range s fro m 383,00 0 t o 842,00 0 wit hPEI' s bes t estimat e bein g 747,000 ; an dth e numbe r o f childre nlivin g i nunsoun dLPH' s wit hbroke no r cracke dplaste r range s fro m 235,00 0 t o 516,00 0 wit hPEI' s bes t estimat e o f 458,000 . A compariso no f regiona l estimate s o f housin g an dchildre nresidin g i nth e housin g indicate s th e Northeas t ha s th e larges t numbe r an dpercentage s o f unsoun d LPH' s an dchildre nwh o liv e i nunsoun dLPH's , an dth e Wes t ha s th e smallest . O f 4,439,00 0 childre ni nth e Northeast , 6 5 percen t resid e i nLPH's ; 6 percent , i nunsoun dhousing ; an d3. 9 percent , i nunsoun dLPH' s wit hpeelin g paint . O f 6,171,00 0 childre ni nth e Midwest , 57. 8 percen t resid e i nLPH's ; 3. 9 percent , i nunsoun dhousing ; an d2. 2 percen t i nunsoun dLPH's . O f 7,865,00 0 childre ni n

1 5P.2 2

th e South , 43. 6 percen t resid e i nLPH's ; 3. 8 percent , i nunsoun dhousing ; an d 1. 6 percent , i nunsoun dLPH's . O f 4,592,00 0 childre ni nth e West , 44. 5 percen t resid e i nLPH's ; 3. 8 percent , inunsoun dhomes ; an d1. 7 percent , inunsoun dLPH's . Th e regiona l estimate s ar e assume dt o b e reasonabl e becaus e th e Northeas t ha s a greate r prevalenc e o f olde r home s concentrate di nurba narea s andth e Wes t andSout hhav e newe r home s wit hfewe r home s buil t prio r t o 1940 . Tabl e 7 compare s PEI' s bes t nationa l estimate s wit hestimate s cite di n fiv e studies . PEI' s estimate s ar e lowe r tha nmos t o f th e estimate s presente d i nth e studies . Th e uppe r boundo f Lin-Fu' s estimate drang e o f th e numbe r o f LPH' s i nth e Unite dState s i s i nagreemen t wit hth e numbe r o f LPH' s estimate d 2 b y PEI . I nth e Lin-F ustudy , home s tha t containe d>2. 0 m g lead/c m

i npainte d surface s ar e classifie da s LPH's ; therefore , th e uppe r boundi s a reasonabl e 2 estimat e o f th e quantit y o f LPH' s wit h>0. 7 m g lead/c m

. Th e estimate s o f unsoun dhousin g andchildre ni nunsoun dhousin g presente di nstudie s b y Berger , Gilsinn , Jenkins , andO'Har a ar e greate r tha nth e PE I estimates , bu t non e o f them define dunsoun dhousin g andth e studie s ar e older . PE I define s unsoun d housin g precisel y

a s home s tha t hav e peelin g paint . Becaus e PE I provide s docu mentatio no f variable s i nth e mode l an duse s mor e recen t censu s data , th e PE I estimate s o f unsoun dhousin g unit s andchildre nresidin g i nunsoun dhousin g unit s ar e assume dt o be mor e accurat e tha nth e estimate s presente db y Berger , Gilsinn , Jenkins , andO'Hara .



### 1 6P.2 3

TABL E 7 . COMPARISON O F PEI' s NATIONAL ESTIMATE S WIT H THOS E PRESENTE D I

N TH E LITERATUR E

Stud y 

### PE I 8 Berge r Lin-Fu 1 5

Gilsinn 1 9 Jenkin s O'Hara 2 1 Lea d i n

painte d surfac e 2 >0. 7 mg/c m

2 >2. 0 mg/c m 

### 1 % Numbe r o f

LPH's , 1000' s 41,96 4

39,00 0 t o 40,00 0 Numbe r

o f un sound , homes , 1000' s 3,77 8 7,00 0

7,75 0 Numbe r

o f un sound LPH's , 1000' s 1,97 2 Numbe r

chil dre nin LPH's , 1000' s 12,04 3 Numbe r

chil dre nin unsoun d homes , 1000' s 1,08 4

2,50 0 2,88 4 1,50 0 Numbe r

chil dre n i nun sound LPH's , 1000' s 

### 567

1 7P.2 4

SECTIO N 4 DISCUSSIO N

O F MODE L ESTIMATE S AND EXPOSUR E O F CHILDRE N

T O LEAD FROM

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Th e mode l produce s estimate s o f th e numbe r o f occupie dhomes , LPH's , unsoun dhomes , an

dunsoun dLPH' s an

dth e numbe r o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f ag e wh o resid e i nhome s i neac ho f thes e fou r categories . Exposur e o f chil dre nt o lead-base dpaint s i s highes t i nunsoundLPH' s tha t hav e peelin g paint ; however , childre nwh o liv e i nsoundLPH' s wit hintac t lead-base dpaint s als o ma y b e expose dt o lead . Amon g th e resident s i nth e 41,964,00 0 LPH' s ar e an estimate d12,043,00 0 childre nwh o ar e a t some ris k o f exposur e t o lead-base d paints , andth e resident s o f 1,972,00 0 unsoun dLPH' s ar e estimate dt o includ e 567,00 0 childre nwh o ar e a t greates t ris k o f exposur e t o lead-base d paints . PE I assume s tha t th e actua l numbe r o f childre nexpose dt o lead-base d paint s i nth e Unite dState s range s somewher e betwee nth e estimate d567,00 0 childre nwh o resid e i nunsoun dLPH' s an dth e estimate d12,043,00 0 childre n wh o resid e i nLPH's . Th e estimat e o f childre nresidin g i nunsoun dLPH' s appear s t o b e a reasonabl e representatio no f th e numbe r o f childre nexpose dt o lead-base d paints . Th e estimate dnumbe r o f childre nwh o resid e i nunsoun dLPH' s ma y

b e lowe r tha nth e actua l numbe r o f childre nwh o resid e inunsoun dLPH's , however , becaus e th e mode l doe s no t calculat e th e percentag e o f unsoun dhousin g fo r eac h o f th e fou r ag e group s o f homes . Becaus e o f a lac k o f dat a inthe literature , PE I use dth e sam

e percentage s o f unsoundhousin g fo r al l age s o f homes . Th e estimate dnumbe r o f childre nwh o resid e i nLPH's , however , i s probabl y signifi cantl y greate r tha nth e actua l numbe r o f childre nexpose dt o lead-base dpaints . No t al l o f th e childre nlivin g i nLPH' s wit hintac t painte dsurface s ar e expose dt o lead-base dpaint , an dth e percentag e o f childre nwh o ar e expose di s no t indicate dinth e literature . Therefore , PE I present s a rang e o f estimate s o f th e numbe r o f childre nresidin g i nLPH' s wh o ar e expose dt o leadfro m lead base dpaints .



### 1 8P.2 5



### Inadditio nt o exposure s i nthei r homes , childre nals o ma y b e expose dt o lead-base dpaint s i nday-car e center s o r i nth e home s o f sitters . Ina tele phon e surve y

o f leadpoisonin g preventio nprogram s inselecte dcitie s and States , PE I foundn

o evidenc e o f lead-base dpaint s i nday-car e center s o r 2 2 2 3 schools . ' Inon e city , however , some childre nwer e regularl y expose dt o 2 3 lead-base dpain t i nprivat e home s o f sitter s ininne r cit y areas . Th e home s o f childre nappea r t o b e thei r primar y sourc e o f regula r exposur e t o lead-base d paints . Therefore , th e mode l estimate s provid e reasonabl e representatio no f th e exposur e o f childre nt o lead-base dpaints .

1 9REFERENCE S

1 . Jenkins , D . Desig no f Pollutant-Oriente dIntegrate dMonitorin g Systems , A Tes t Case : Environmenta l Lead . EPA-600/4-76-018 ; U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , La s Vegas , Nevada , Apri l 1976 . 2 . Cente r fo r Diseas e Control . Preventin g Lea dPoisonin g inYoun g Chil dren . U . S . Departmen t o f Healt han dHuma nServices , Atlanta , Georgia , Januar y 1985 . 3 . Billick , I. , andV . Gray . Lead-Base dPain t Poisonin g Research , Review , an d Evaluation , 1971-1977 . HU D RP-809 . U.S . Departmen t o f Housin g an d Urba nDevelopment , Washington , D.C , Jul y 1978 . 4 . Gilbert , C , e t al . A Compariso no f LeadHazard s inth e Housin g Environ men t o f Lea dPoisone dChildre nVersu s Nonpoisone dControls . Journa l o f Environmenta l Scienc e andHealth , A14(3):145-168 , 1979. . 5 . Galke , W. , e t al . Environmenta l Determinant s o f LeadBurden s i nChildren , Presente da t th e Internationa l Conferenc e o nHeav y Metal s i nth e Environ ment , Toronto , Canada , Octobe r 1975 . 6 . Persona l communicatio nb y Alici a Ferd o o f PE I wit hVerno nHou k o f th e Cente r fo r Diseas e Contro l onJul y 8 , 1985 . 7 . Stark , A. , e t al . Th e Relationshi po f Environmenta l Lea dt o Blood-Lea d Level s i nChildren . Environmenta l Research , 27:372-383 , 1982 . 8 . Berger , H . Th e NB S Lea dPain t Poisonin g Project : Housin g andOthe r Aspects . NB S Tec hNot e 759 . Nationa l Burea uo f Standards , Washington , D.C , Februar y

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12 . Censu s Bureau . Detaile dHousin g Characteristics , Unite dState s Summary , 198 0 Censu s o f Housing ; H C 80-1-B1 . Washington , D.C , Decembe r 1983 . 13 . Censu s Bureau . Metropolita nHousin g Characteristics , Unite dState s Summary , 198 0 Censu s o f Housing . HC 80-2-1 . Washington , D.C , Marc h1984 . 14 . Revie w

o f th e Nationa l Ambien t Ai r Qualit y Standard s fo r Lead : Assess men t o f Scientifi c an dTechnica l Information . OAQP S Draf t Staf f Paper . Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolina , Apri l 1985 . 15 . Lin-Fu , J . Childhoo dLeadPoisoning : Th e Nationa l Perspective . Pre sente da t Childhoo dLea dPoisoning : I s I t Stil l a Problem , A Symposiu

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dW . Hall . Analysi s o f Housin g Dat a Collecte di na Lead Base dPain t Surve y

inPittsburgh , Pennsylvania , Par t I . NBSI R77-1250 . Nationa l Burea uo f Standards , Washington , D.C , Marc h1977 . 17 . Arizon a Departmen t o f Healt hServices . Lead-Base dPain t Repor t o f Find ing s t o th e Stat e Legislature . Decembe r 20 , 1976 . 18 . Persona l communicatio nfro m Davi dNordmeyer , Registere dEnvironmenta l Stat e Specialis t fo r Minnesota , Jul y 1985 . 19 . Gilsinn , J . Estimat e o f th e Natur e andExten t o f LeadPain t Poisonin g i nth e Unite dStates . NB S Tec hNot e 764 . Nationa l Burea uo f Standards , Washington , D.C , Decembe r 1972 . 20 . Persona l communicatio nfro m America nHousin g Survey , Augus t 1985 . 21 . O'Hara , D . Socia l c actor s i nth e Recurrenc e o f Increase dLeadAbsorptio n i nChildren . In : ..ea d Absorptio ni nChildren , J . J . Chisholm , Jr . an d D . M . O'Har a (Eds.) , Urba nan dSchwarzenberg , Baltimore , Maryland , 1982 . 22 . Persona l communicatio nfro m Cat o Kirksey , Environmenta l Healt hDivisio n Director , Lea dPoisonin g Preventio nProgram , Chicago , Illinois , Jul y 1985 . 23 . Persona l communicatio nfro m Ell a Witherspoon , LeadPoisonin g Preventio n Program , Washington , D.C , Jul y 1985 .



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