Costs of generation with and without NGS for each NGS owner - NREL data

Column #: 1 2 3 4 5 6

Line # Low case High case Gas at $4/MMBtu Gas at $5/MMBtu

Owner SCR cost SCR cost LMP w/ LMP w/ LMP w/ LMP w/

($MM/yr) ($MM/yr) NGS no NGS NGS no NGS

1 SRP $14.29 $17.33 31.08 32.44 36.66 38.46

2 LADWP $11.13 $13.64 34.26 35.28 40.53 41.71

3 APS $8.47 $10.24 31.39 32.72 37.05 38.77

4 NPC $6.85 $8.29 32.73 33.75 39.08 40.26

5 TEP $4.50 $5.45 31.34 32.64 37.02 38.71

6 BOR $12.00 $14.70

7 Total ex-BOR $45.24 $54.95 $32.30 $33.50 $38.21 $39.72

8 Increase ($/Mwh) $1.20 $1.51

9 Increase (%) 3.72% 3.95%

10 Increase at Table 3 gas price for 2016: 3.76%

11 WECC-wide 31.77 32.43 37.74 38.58

12 NREL source: pp. 14, 19, 47, pp. 14, 19, 47, p. 42 p. 42 p. 42 p. 42

61 61

Direct replacement costs before considering LMP effects

13 NGS replacement cost at owners' LMPs: $45.72 $154.54

14 Non-BOR owners replacement cost at owners' LMPs: $34.61 $116.99

15 SRP replacement cost at SRP-area LMPs: $5.89 $28.75

16 LADWP replacement cost at SRP-area LMPs: $16.29 $40.14

17 APS replacement cost at SRP-area LMPs: $4.48 $19.31

18 NPC replacement cost at SRP-area LMPs: $5.66 $18.53

19 TEP replacement cost at SRP-area LMPs: $2.30 $10.26

20 BOR replacement cost at owner's LMPs: $11.11 $37.55

21 Low-case SCR O&M: $11.95 million (p. 47)

22 High-case SCR O&M: $16.71 million (p. 47)

23 Annual NGS generation: 17500 gwh (p. 32)

24 2012 NGS O&M cost ($/Mwh) $30.89 www.amwua.org/pdfs/33_201303_mgmt_item

25a 2010 NGS cost estimates $30.90 NREL, p. 23, Table 1-13

25b $24.45 NREL, p. 25, Table 1-15; see also NREL, p. 55, fn. 6

25c $30 NREL, p. 55, fn. 6

25d $32.27 NREL, p. 55, fn. 6

26 2016 forward Henry Hub price $4.14 per MMBtu, per Table 3, Line 13
7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Gas at $6.90/MMBtu Sales (proxy Cost of market procurement in $millions

LMP w/ LMP w/ for load) due to NGS retirement w/ gas at:

NGS no NGS (gwh) $4/MMBtu $5/MMBtu $6.90/MMBtu $13/MMBtu

47 49.48 32538 $44.25 $58.57 $80.69

51.92 53.57 26205 $26.73 $30.92 $43.24

47.5 49.88 28225 $37.54 $48.55 $67.18

50.71 52.49 29261 $29.85 $34.53 $52.08

47.51 49.82 9388 $12.20 $15.87 $21.69

$49.07 $51.18 125617 $150.57 $188.43 $264.88

$2.11

4.29%

48.84 50.13 $197 $502 $1,157

p. 40 p. 40 p. 19 WECC-wide impact on line 11 from pp. 36, 111

s before considering LMP effects Implicit breakeven price of gas Breakeven gas price if all generation price

Low SCR cost High SCR cost Low SCR cost

$355.12

$268.82 $4.13 $4.47 $1.22

$70.60 $4.37 $4.60 $1.91

$84.14 $3.78 $4.34 $0.28

$46.53 $4.27 $4.53 $1.36

$42.71 $4.09 $4.45 -$0.91

$24.85 $4.28 $4.53 $1.89

$86.29 $4.03 $4.39

At gas prices above those shown At gas prices above those shown

above, it's economically preferable above, it's economically preferable

to retrofit NGS rather than retire it to retrofit NGS rather than retire it

even without considering LMP effects when all generation is priced at LMP

item5a.pdf

REL, p. 55, fn. 6
14 15 16 17 18

Ownership High case Change in gas NGS cost w/

share of SCR cost price to match high-case SCR

$13/MMBtu NGS ($/Mwh) SCR cost ($/MMBtu) ($/Mwh)

21.7% $4.56 $0.82 $35.45

21.2% $3.68 $0.59 $34.57

14.0% $4.18 $0.74 $35.07

11.3% $4.19 $0.66 $35.08

7.5% $4.15 $0.73 $35.04

24.3%

75.7%

p. 14

price if all generation priced at LMP

High SCR cost

$1.47

$2.12

$0.88

$1.52

-$0.60

$2.16

bove those shown

nomically preferable

rather than retire it

ation is priced at LMP
19 20

Gas price ($/MMBtu) above which utility-area

LMPs (absent NGS) would average

more than cost of NGS with high SCR added

$4.50 $4.50

$3.89 $3.89

$4.39 $4.39

$4.20 $4.20

$4.40 $4.40

Calculated two different ways

as a mutual check