### CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL AND REGI ONAL IMPACT ANALYSES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

......................................................................................................... 10- 1 10.1.1 Approach

............................................................................................................ 10 -1 10.1.2 Factors Relevant to the Analysis

........................................................................ 10-2 10.2 BASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND FORECASTED EFFICIENCY TRENDS

..................................................................... 10-3 10.2.1 Central Air Conditioners

.................................................................................... 10-4 10.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

............................................. 10-4 10.2.1.2 Forecasted Efficien cy Trends

.......................................................... 10-6 10.2.1.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

............................................... 10-10 10.2.2 Heat Pumps

...................................................................................................... 10-13 10.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

........................................... 10-13 10.2.2.2 Forecasted Efficien cy Trends

........................................................ 10-16 10.2.2.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

............................................... 10-21 10.3 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

................. 10-23 10.3.1 Definition

......................................................................................................... 10- 24 10.3.2 Inputs to Calculation

........................................................................................ 10-25 10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

.......................................... 10-25 10.3.2.2 Shipments including Equipment Switching

................................... 10-37 10.3.2.3 Equipment Stock

............................................................................ 10-41 10.3.2.4 Annual Energy Consumption

......................................................... 10-41 10.3.2.5 Site-to-Source Energy Conversion Factors

.................................... 10-41 10.4 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL NET PRESENT VALUE

........... 10-42 10.4.1 Definition

......................................................................................................... 10- 42 10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation

........................................................................................ 10-44 10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit

.......................................................... 10-44 10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost per Unit

.................................................... 10-54 10.4.2.3 Shipments including Equipment Switching

................................... 10-62 10.4.2.4 Equipment Stock

............................................................................ 10-64 10.4.2.5 Increases in Total Annua l Installed Cost

....................................... 10-64 10.4.2.6 Savings in Total Annua l Operating Cost

....................................... 10-65 10.4.2.7 Discount Factors

............................................................................ 10-65 10.4.2.8 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost

..................................... 10-65 10.4.2.9 Present Value of Savings

............................................................... 10-66 10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATIONS

.............................................................................. 10-66 10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

........................................................................................... 10-66 10.5.2 National and Regional Energy Savings

........................................................... 10-67 10.5.2.1 Central Air Conditioners

................................................................ 10-67 10.5.2.2 Heat Pumps

.................................................................................... 10-72 10.5.3 Calculating Annual Co st and Savings

.............................................................. 10-74 10.5.4 Net Present Values

........................................................................................... 10-75

10-i

### 10.5.4.1 Central Air Conditioners

................................................................ 10-76 10.5.4.2 Heat Pumps

.................................................................................... 10-85

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Split System CAC, Coil Only Units : SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................... 10-5 Table 10.2.2 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Ca ses in 2016

.............................................................................. 10-5 Table 10.2.3 Single Package Central Air Cond itioners: SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Ca ses in 2016

.............................................................................. 10-6 Table 10.2.4 CAC SWEF Growth Rates

................................................................................. 10-7 Table 10.2.5 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units : Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

....................................................................................................... 10-11 Table 10.2.6 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Un its: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

....................................................................................................... 10-12 Table 10.2.7 Single Package CAC: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

.......... 10-13 Table 10.2.8 Split System HP: Efficiency Di stributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................................................................................... 10-16 Table 10.2.9 Single Package HP: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................................................................................... 10-16 Table 10.2.10 Heat Pump SW EF Growth Rates

..................................................................... 10-17 Table 10.2.11 Split System HPs: SEER-based Ba se Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

............................................................................................................. 10-22 Table 10.2.12 Single Package HPs: SEER-based Base Case E fficiency Distributions and SWEFs

............................................................................................................. 10-23 Table 10.3.1 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................. 10-26 Table 10.3.2 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and St andards Cases in 2016

....................................... 10-27 Table 10.3.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and St andards Cases in 2016

....................................... 10-28 Table 10.3.4 Split System Central Air Cond itioners, Blower Coil Units: Replacement and New Owner Markets, Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base a nd Standards Cases in 2016

.......................... 10-29 Table 10.3.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................................................. 10-30 Table 10.3.6 Split System Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base a nd Standards Cases in 2016

.......................... 10-32

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### Table 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pump: Sh ipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base a nd Standards Cases in 2016

.......................... 10-35 Table 10.3.8 Equipment Switching for New Own er Purchasers of Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption of Alternative Combination Coil-Only Split System Central Air Conditioner and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................................................................................... 10-39 Table 10.3.9 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption of Alternative Combin ation Single Package Central Air Conditioner and Electric Fu rnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................................................. 10-40 Table 10.3.10 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

.................................................................. 10-42 Table 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

............................................................. 10-45 Table 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Cond itioners, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

...................................... 10-46 Table 10.4.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

............................................................. 10-47 Table 10.4.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

...................................... 10-47 Table 10.4.5 Single Package Central Air C onditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................................................................................... 10-49 Table 10.4.6 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................................................... 10-49 Table 10.4.7 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost s for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................................................. 10-51 Table 10.4.8 Split System Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................. 10-51 Table 10.4.9 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost s for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................................................. 10-53 Table 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................. 10-53

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### Table 10.4.11 Split System Central Air C onditioners, Coil-Only Units: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Repair a nd Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................. 10-56 Table 10.4.12 Split System Central Air Cond itioners, Blower Coil Units: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Repair a nd Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................. 10-57 Table 10.4.13 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and Main tenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.................................................................................................................. 10-59 Table 10.4.14 Split System Heat Pumps: Ship ment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

....................... 10-60 Table 10.4.15 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

........... 10-62 Table 10.4.16 Equipment Switching for New Own er Purchasers of Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs of Alternative Combination Coil-Only Split System Central Air Conditioner and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.............. 10-63 Table 10.4.17 Equipment Switching for New Own er Purchasers Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs of Alternative Combination Single Package Central Air Conditioner and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

..................... 10-64 Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculations

...................................................................................... 10-6 7 Table 10.5.2 Split System Central Air Cond itioners: Cumulative Na tional and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (quads)

.............. 10-68 Table 10.5.3 Split System Central Air Cond itioners: Cumulative Na tional and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (quads)

............. 10-69 Table 10.5.4 Split System Central Air Cond itioners: Cumulative Na tional and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Residential and Commercial Sectors (quads)

................................................................................................. 10-69 Table 10.5.5 Single Package Central Ai r Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

......................................... 10-71 Table 10.5.6 Split System Heat Pumps: Cu mulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

..................................................................... 10-72 Table 10.5.7 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

..................................................................... 10-74 Table 10.5.8 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (3% Discount Rate)

................................................................................................. 10-77 Table 10.5.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (3% Discount Rate)

.......................................................................................... 10-77 Table 10.5.10 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential and Commercial Sectors (3% Discount Rate)

........................................................ 10-78

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### Table 10.5.11 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (7% Discount Rate)

................................................................................................. 10-80 Table 10.5.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate)

.......................................................................................... 10-80 Table 10.5.13 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential and Commercial Sectors (7% Discount Rate)

........................................................ 10-81 Table 10.5.14 Single Package Central Ai r Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate)

.... 10-83 Table 10.5.15 Single Package Central Ai r Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate)

.... 10-84 Table 10.5.16 Split System Heat Pumps: Di scounted Cumulative Na tional and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate)

......................................... 10-85 Table 10.5.17 Split System Heat Pumps: Di scounted Cumulative Na tional and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate)

......................................... 10-87 Table 10.5.18 Single Package Heat Pump s: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016- 2046 (3% Discount Rate)

......................... 10-88 Table 10.5.19 Single Package Heat Pump s: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016- 2046 (7% Discount Rate)

......................... 10-89

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.2.1 CAC Historical SWEFs with Linear Fits

........................................................... 10-7 Figure 10.2.2 Split System CAC, Coil Only Units: SEER-based Hi storical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base Case and Sta ndards Cases

............. 10-8 Figure 10.2.3 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for Ba se Case and Sta ndards Cases

................... 10-9 Figure 10.2.4 Single Package CAC: SEER-b ased Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Ba se and Standard s Cases

......................................... 10-9 Figure 10.2.5 Split System HP: HSPF and SEER relationship

.............................................. 10-14 Figure 10.2.6 Single Package HP: H SPF and SEER relationship

.......................................... 10-15 Figure 10.2.7 Heat Pump Historical SWEFs based on SEER with Linear Fits

..................... 10-17 Figure 10.2.8 Split System HP: SEER-bas ed Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Ba se and Standard s Cases

....................................... 10-19 Figure 10.2.9 Split System HP: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Ba se and Standard s Cases

....................................... 10-19 Figure 10.2.10 Single Package HP: SEER-b ased Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Ba se and Standard s Cases

....................................... 10-20 Figure 10.2.11 Single Package HP: HSPF-b ased Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Ba se and Standard s Cases

....................................... 10-21

10-v

### Figure 10.3.1 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ............. 10-27 Figure 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case a nd Three Standards Cases over the 2016­ 2046 Forecast Period........................................................................................ 10-29 Figure 10.3.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ............. 10-31 Figure 10.3.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over th e 2016-2046 Forecast Period .................... 10-33 Figure 10.3.5 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over th e 2016-2046 Forecast Period .................... 10-34 Figure 10.3.6 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over th e 2016-2046 Forecast Period...................... 10-36 Figure 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over th e 2016-2046 Forecast Period...................... 10-37 Figure 10.4.1 Split System Central Ai r Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Two Sta ndards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period .... 10-46 Figure 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period .. 10-48 Figure 10.4.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ..................................... 10-50 Figure 10.4.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ................................................................ 10-52 Figure 10.4.5 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Tw o Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ................................................................ 10-54 Figure 10.4.6 Split System Central Ai r Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighte d Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period .............................................................................. 10-56 Figure 10.4.7 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighte d Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period .............................................................................. 10-58

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### Figure 10.4.8 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

............. 10-59 Figure 10.4.9 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintena nce Costs for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over th e 2016-2046 Forecast Period

........................... 10-61 Figure 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintena nce Costs for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

............................. 10-62 Figure 10.5.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Na tional and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

........................................................ 10-70 Figure 10.5.2 Single Package Central Ai r Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

......................................... 10-71 Figure 10.5.3 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National a nd Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

..................................................................... 10-73 Figure 10.5.4 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

..................................................................... 10-74 Figure 10.5.5 Non-Discounted Annual Increa ses in Installed Cost and Savings in Operating Cost for Split System Coil-Only Central Air Conditioners, Candidate Standard Level 2

............................................................................. 10-75 Figure 10.5.6 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Na tional and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)

........................................................ 10-79 Figure 10.5.7 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Na tional and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)

........................................................ 10-82 Figure 10.5.8 Single Package Central Ai r Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)

........................................ 10-83 Figure 10.5.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Na tional and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)

........................................................ 10-84 Figure 10.5.10 Split System Heat Pumps: Cu mulative National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)

.......................................................................... 10-86 Figure 10.5.11 Split System Heat Pumps: Cu mulative National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)

.......................................................................... 10-87 Figure 10.5.12 Single Package Heat Pump s: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)

................................................................. 10-89 Figure 10.5.13 Single Package Heat Pump s: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)

................................................................. 10-90

10-vii

### CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES

10.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter describes the method that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) developed to estimate the energy savings, and net present value of those energy savings, that consumers would receive from potential new energy efficiency standards for residential and commercial consumers of central air cond itioners (CAC) and heat pumps (HP). Chapter 5 describes the efficiency levels, otherwise known as candidate standard levels (CSLs), for the products represented by central air cond itioners and heat pumps. This chapter examines the national energy savings (NES) attributable to each CSL, along with the energy savings specific to three regions based on climate: a hot-humid climate (the Southeast), a hot-dry climate (the Southwest), and the rest of the Nation. The results presented he re for the nation as a whole and for each of the three regions include: (1) potential energy consum ption and savings; (2) the monetary value of energy savings attributable to each CSL; (3) increased total installed costs (purchase price plus installation costs) attributable to each CSL; and (4) the net present value (NPV) of energy savings (the difference between the value of energy savings and increased total installed costs in 2008$).

DOE determined both the energy savings and NPV for each CSL considered for the product comprising central air conditioners and heat pumps. The calcula tions were performed using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet ( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/applianc e_standards/residen tial/central_ac_hp.html ). The spreadsheet model, termed the National Impact Analysis (NIA) model, calculates energy savings and NPV for the nation and for each of the three regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Details regarding and instructions for using the NIA model are provided in appendix 10-A.

10.1.1 Approach
The critical factors that govern energy consumption by CAC and HPs are: (1) the quantities shipped; (2) fina ncial considerations such as consumer response to changes in total installed cost, operating expe nses, and household income; and (3) voluntary programs that promote higher-efficiency product s. Chapter 9 describes in detail the shipments model that DOE used to forecast future purchases of central air conditioners and heat pumps. Chapter 9 includes detailed descriptions of consumers’ sensitivities to total installed cost, operating expense, and income (otherwise known as elasticities), and how DOE captured those elasticities within the NIA model.

Voluntary programs increase the market share of energy efficient equipment. Between 1992 (the effective date of the first federal energy efficiency sta ndards for central air conditioners and heat pumps) and 2005, the ship ment-weighted efficiency of central air conditioners and heat pumps has grown by appr oximately one SEER point. Presumably, the

10-1

### efficiency increase over this time period has been due at least in part to voluntary programs. Consequently, DOE assumed that market-based initiatives would continue to have the same effect on the efficiency of product shipments as it has in the past. Details on how this effect was captured in the analysis are detailed below in section 10.2.

10.1.2 Factors Relevant to the Analysis
The product and product classe s being considered for new standards are described in detail in chapter 3. Below is a brief description of the product, product classes, and other factors that were considered in evaluating the effects of potential new energy standards.

• Product being considered:

o central air conditioners (CAC s) and heat pumps (HPs)

• Product classes with in this product: a



### o split system air conditioners,

o single package air conditioners,

o split system heat pumps, and

o single package heat pumps,

• Markets:

o Central air conditioners: 93 percent used in residential settings; 7 percent used in commercial settings.

 Split systems comprise 90.4 percen t of both the residential and commercial markets.

 Single package systems represent 9.6 pe rcent of both the residential and commercial markets.

o Heat pumps: 93 percent used in residentia l settings; 7 percent used in commercial settings.

 Split systems comprise 87.7 percen t of both the residential and commercial markets.

 Single package systems represent 12.3 percent of both the residential and commercial markets.

• Channels (i.e., product placement):

o Central air conditioners are purchased for:

 new construction,

 replacements, and

 existing households and commercial building owners that do not already own the product (hereafter referred to as “new owners”).

o Heat pumps are purchased for:

 new construction,

 replacements, and

a There are three other product classes including small duct high velocity (SDHV) systems, space-constrained air conditioners, and space-constrained heat pumps which are not being analyzed for this preliminary TSD due to lack of available data and limited product offerings.

10-2

###  new owners.

• Effects of increased purchase price, opera ting cost savings, and household income:

o Central air conditioners: Evaluated for replacement and new owner purchases.

 For replacement purchases, effected c onsumers repair their product rather than replace it, extending the life of the product by six years.

 For new owner purchases, effected consumers purchase a room air conditioner rather than a central air conditioner.

o Heat pump: Evaluated for repla cement and new owner purchases.

 For replacement purchases, effected c onsumers repair their product rather than replace it, extending the life of the product by six years.

 For new owner purchases, effected consumers purchase a combination electric resistance furnace and central air conditioner rather than a heat
pump.

• Regional standards considered: b



### o hot-humid region (consisting of states in the Southeastern U.S. including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, a nd Texas; Hawaii is also included);

o hot-dry region (consisting of states in the Southwest including Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico; California is also included);

o the rest of the Nation; that is, the remaining 33 states including Alaska.

• Standard Levels:

o seven levels for split system air conditione rs, coil-only units and 13 levels for split system air conditioners, blower coil units,

o seven levels for single package air conditioners,

o ten levels for split system heat pumps, and

o seven levels for single package heat pumps.

10.2 BASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND
FORECASTED EFFICIENCY TRENDS
A key component of DOE’s estimates of na tional and regional energy savings and net present value (NPV) is the energy efficiency fo recasted over time for the base case (without new standards) and for each of the standards cases (with potential new standards). The forecasted efficiencies represent the annual shipment-weigh ted energy efficiency (SWEF) of the product classes under consideration from the assumed effec tive date of a new standard to 30 years after that date. Key inputs to the calculation of bot h national and regional energy savings and NPV depend on estimated energy efficiencies. Per-unit annual energy consumption, for example, is a direct function of product effici ency and dictates energy savi ngs. Chapter 6, Energy Use Determination, describes how per-unit energy consumption chan ges as a function of efficiency for each product class. With regard to the NPV, two inputs, the per-unit total installed cost and the per-unit annual operating cost , depend on efficiency. The per-un it total installed cost is a

b Regional standards are being considered in addition to standards for the Nation as a whole.

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### direct function of efficiency because more effi cient products are assumed to be more expensive than their less efficient counterparts

. Because per-unit annual operatin g cost is a direct function of per-unit annual energy consumption, it too is dependent on product efficiency. Section 8.2.2 of chapter 8, Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) and Paybac k Period (PBP) Analysis, describes how per-unit total installed cost changes as a function of effi ciency for each product class. The above and all other inputs to the calculation of energy savi ngs and NPV are discussed in sections 10.3.2 and 10.4.2. The two sections below (sections 10.2.1 a nd 10.2.2) describe how DOE developed base and standards case efficiency distributions and forecasted efficiency trends.

As noted in section 10.1.2, DOE constructed and conducted its NIA to analyze standards for the Nation as a whole and th ree specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Ideally, the base case and standards case efficiency distributions and forecasted efficiency trends would be characterized as a function of region. Unfortunately, DOE only received data at the national level. As a result, DOE assumed that the distributions and trends developed for the entire Nation are also representative for the three re gions (i.e., efficiency distributions and trends do not vary by region).

10.2.1 Central Air Conditioners

10.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies
For both CAC product classes—split system s and single package systems—DOE developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific efficiency levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE dete rmined the distribution of product efficiencies currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER-based SWEF for the year 2016. DOE derived its base case efficiency distributions for split system and single package CACs on SWEF data provided by AHRI in combination with the ra nge of product offerings in AHRI’s listing of certified unitary air-conditioner equipment. For more details on the derivation of the split system and single package base case efficiencies, refer to section 8.2.3.8 of chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis.

For its determination of sta ndards-case efficiencies, DOE a ssumed a “roll-up” scenario to establish the SWEF for the year that standard s are assumed to become effective (i.e., 2016). DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the ba se case that did not m eet the standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. Also, DOE assumed that all product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under consideration would not be affected.

Tables 10.2.1 and 10.2.2 present the SEER-based efficiency distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and standards cases for split system coil-only and blower coil CACs, respectively, in the year 2016 (the assumed e ffective date of new standards). Table 10.2.3 presents the SEER-based efficiency distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and standards cases for single package CACs in th e year 2016. Each table clearly shows how each standards case, under a “roll-up” scenari o, affects the effici ency distribution.

10-4

### Table 10.2.1 Split System CAC, Coil Only Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER Market Share

Base Case Standards Case
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Baseline 13.0 24.6%

- - - - - - - 1 13.5 56.4% 81.0%

- - - - - - 2 14.0 4.1% 4.1% 85.1%

- - - - - 3 14.5 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 90.5%

- - - - 4 15.0 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 93.8%

- - - 5 15.5 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 95.9%

- - 6 16.0 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 99.5%

- 7 16.5 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 100%

SWEF 

### 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50



### Table 10.2.2 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER Market Share

Base Case Standards Case
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Baseline 13.0 18.5%

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 13.5 42.3% 60.8%

- - - - - - - - - - - - 2 14.0 3.1% 3.1% 63.8%

- - - - - - - - - - - 3 14.5 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 67.9%

- - - - - - - - - - 4 15.0 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 70.4%

- - - - - - - - - 5 15.5 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 71.9%

- - - - - - - - 6 16.0 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 74.6%

- - - - - - - 7 16.5 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 75.0%

- - - - - - 8 17.0 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10. 0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 85.0%

- - - - - 9 18.0 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 92.0% - - - - 10 19.0 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 95.0%

- - - 11 20.0 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2. 0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 97.0%

- - 12 21.0 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2. 0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 99.0%

- 13 22.0 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1. 0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 100%
SWEF 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00

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### Table 10.2.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER Market Share

Base Case Standards Case
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Baseline 13.0 75%

- - - - - - - 1 13.5 20% 95%

- - - - - - 2 14.0 2% 2% 97%

- - - - - 3 14.5 2% 2% 2% 99%

- - - - 4 15.0 1% 1% 1% 1% 100%

- - - 5 15.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% - - 6 16.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% - 7 16.6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
SWEF 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60



### 10.2.1.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends
Historical Efficiency Trends Using the SWEF for the year 2016 as a starting point, DOE developed base-case forecasted efficiency trends based on assumpti ons regarding future efficiency growth. To estimate SWEFs over the 30 year forecast sp anning 2016–2046, DOE reviewed historical SWEF data provided by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) spanning the years 1992 to 2008. 1 

### Between 1992, the year in which the first set of standards for CAC and HPs became effective, and 2006, when an updated se t of standards became effective, the SWEFs for CACs grew by approximately one SEER point. Figure 10.2.1 shows the SWEFs for split system and single package CACs. The figure also presents the linear fit to each product class’ SWEF data series. The linear fits have high coefficients of determination, i.e., linear fits provide a good estimate of the SWEF growth rate. Table 10.2.1 provides a summary of the SWEF growth rates for each product class.

10-6Split A/C SEER = 0.0703 * year - 129.65 R2 = 0.9633

Package A/C SEER = 0.0778 * year - 144.78 R2 = 0.9455

10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

YearShipment-Weighted SEER Split A/C Package A/C Linear (Split A/C) Linear (Package A/C)



### Figure 10.2.1 CAC Historical SWEFs with Linear Fits

Table 10.2.4 CAC SWEF Growth Rates
SWEF Growth Rate
Product Class SEER increase per year Split System Air Conditioners 0.0703 Single Package Air Conditioners 0.0778



### Base Case Efficiency Trends Because various market-pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs were in existence from 1992 to 2005, the SWEF grow th rate evident in th e historical data was likely due in part to these market-pull programs. As a result, DOE applied the SWEF growth rates in Table 10.2.4 to the base case SWEFs in 2016 to forecast annual SWEFs for the CAC product classes from 2016 to 2046. Application of the SWEF growth rates in this manner assumes that future market-pull programs will be as effective at increasing product efficiency as past programs.

Standards Case E fficiency Trends To develop standards case forecasted SWEFs, DOE developed growth trends for each candidate standard level that maintained the same per-unit average total installed cost difference for the year 2016 between the base case and each standards case over the entire forecast period (2016–2046). DOE’s approach for developing st andards case SWEFs in this manner assumes

10-7

### that the rate of adoption of more efficient pr oducts under the standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held co nstant. Because the total installed cost versus efficiency relationship for each product class dem onstrates an increasing cost rate for more efficient products, the SWEF growth rate for each standards case is lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case.

Depicting Base Case and Stan dards Case Effi ciency Trends Figures 10.2.2 and 10.2.3 show the SEER-based base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency tre nd, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for split system coil-only and blower coil CACs, resp ectively. Figure 10.2.4 shows the SEER-based SWEFs for single package CACs. Looking at ea ch figure closely, it can be seen that the standards case SWEF growth rates are slightly lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case. Note that for some standards cases, the efficiency trend does not increase past the Max Tech level. The Max Tech levels for split sy stem coil-only and blower coil units are 16.5 SEER and 22 SEER, respectively. The Max Tech leve l for single package units is 16.6 SEER.

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (SEER) Base Case
CSL 1: 13.5 SEER
CSL 2: 14 SEER CSL 3: 14.5 SEER
CSL 4: 15 SEER
CSL 5: 15.5 SEER
CSL 6: 16 SEER CSL 7: 16.5 SEER



### Figure 10.2.2 Split System CAC, Coil Only Units: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base Case and Standards Cases

10-8SWEF (SEER) 22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

1990 Base Case CSL 1: 13.5 SEER CSL 2: 14 SEER CSL 3: 14.5 SEER CSL 4: 15 SEER CSL 5: 15.5 SEER CSL 6: 16 SEER CSL 7: 16.5 SEER CSL 8: 17 SEER CSL 9: 18 SEER CSl 10: 19 SEER CSL 11: 20 SEER CSL 12: 21 SEER CSL 13: 22 SEER

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year 

### Figure 10.2.3 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for Base Case and Standards Cases

17 Base Case CSL 1: 13.5 SEER 16 CSL 2: 14 SEER CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 15 CSL 4: 15 SEERSWEF (SEER)

13 14 CSL 5: 15.5 SEER CSL 6: 16 SEER CSL 7: 16.6 SEER

12

11

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045



### Figure 10.2.4 Single Package CAC: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10-9

### 10.2.1.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions
Once DOE developed base case and standa rds case efficiency trends, it derived a distribution of product efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis period (2016–2046) by developing appr opriate market shares for the various standard levels.

As specified in Tables 10.2.1, 10.2.2, and 10.2.3, DOE developed the product efficiency distributions for the year the standard is assu med to become effective (2016) using a “roll-up” scenario. For subsequent years (2017–2046), DOE a ssigned the market shares to the standard levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained equal to the forecasted SWEF. This assignment was conducted by pulling market shar es from lower efficiency levels to higher efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the forecasted value.

Tables 10.2.4 and 10.2.5 provide examples of forecasted efficiency distributions—the specific cases of the forecasted e fficiency distributions for the base case (without standards) for split system coil-only and blower coil central air conditioners, respectively. As an example for single package central air conditioners, Ta ble 10.2.6 provides the forecasted efficiency distributions for the base case. The tables also provide the resulting SWEF for each year during the forecast period. The NIA spre adsheet (detailed in Appendix 10-A) provides the forecasted efficiency distributions for all the standards cases for both split system and single package CACs.

10-10

### Table 10.2.5 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Shares by SEER Level
SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5
2016 24.6% 56.4% 4.1% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.65
2017 10.6% 70.5% 4.1% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.72
2018 0.0% 77.5% 7.6% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.79
2019 0.0% 63.5% 21.7% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.86
2020 0.0% 49.4% 35.7% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.93
2021 0.0% 35.3% 49.8% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.00
2022 0.0% 21.3% 63.9% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.07
2023 0.0% 7.2% 77.9% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.14
2024 0.0% 0.0% 78.3% 12.3% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.21
2025 0.0% 0.0% 64.2% 26.3% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.28
2026 0.0% 0.0% 50.1% 40.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.35
2027 0.0% 0.0% 36.1% 54.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.42
2028 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 68.5% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.49
2029 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 82.6% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.56
2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.4% 9.5% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.63
2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.3% 23.5% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.70
2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.3% 37.6% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.77
2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.2% 51.6% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.84
2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.1% 65.7% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.91
2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 79.8% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.98
2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93.8% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 15.05
2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79.8% 16.1% 3.6% 0.5% 15.12
2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.7% 30.2% 3.6% 0.5% 15.19
2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51.7% 44.2% 3.6% 0.5% 15.26
2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.6% 58.3% 3.6% 0.5% 15.34
2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 72.4% 3.6% 0.5% 15.41
2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 86.4% 3.6% 0.5% 15.48
2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91.3% 8.2% 0.5% 15.55
2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 77.2% 22.2% 0.5% 15.62
2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63.2% 36.3% 0.5% 15.69
2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.1% 50.4% 0.5% 15.76

10-11

### Table 10.2.6 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Shares by SEER Level
SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 18 19 20 21 22
2016 18.5% 42.3% 3.1% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 14.81
2017 4.4% 56.4% 3.1% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 14.88
2018 0.0% 51.1% 12.7% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 14.95
2019 0.0% 37.0% 26.8% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.02
2020 0.0% 23.0% 40.9% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.09
2021 0.0% 8.9% 54.9% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.16
2022 0.0% 0.0% 58.7% 9.2% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.23
2023 0.0% 0.0% 44.6% 23.3% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.30
2024 0.0% 0.0% 30.6% 37.3% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.37
2025 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 51.4% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.44
2026 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 65.4% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.51
2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.3% 14.1% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.58
2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.2% 28.2% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.65
2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.1% 42.2% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.72
2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 56.3% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.79
2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.4% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.86
2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.3% 15.6% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.93
2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.3% 29.7% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.00
2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.2% 43.7% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.07
2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 57.8% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.14
2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 71.8% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.21
2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57.9% 16.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.28
2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.9% 30.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.35
2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 29.8% 44.8% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.42
2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 58.9% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.49
2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 72.9% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.56
2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62.2% 12.8% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.63
2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 48.2% 26.8% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.70
2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.1% 40.9% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.77
2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 55.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.84
2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 69.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.92

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### Table 10.2.7 Single Package CAC: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Share by SEER Level
SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.6
2016 75.0% 20.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.17
2017 59.4% 35.6% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.25
2018 43.9% 51.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.33
2019 28.3% 66.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.40
2020 12.8% 82.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.48
2021 0.0% 92.2% 4.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.56
2022 0.0% 76.6% 20.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.64
2023 0.0% 61.1% 35.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.71
2024 0.0% 45.5% 51.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.79
2025 0.0% 30.0% 67.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.87
2026 0.0% 14.4% 82.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.95
2027 0.0% 0.0% 95.8% 3.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.03
2028 0.0% 0.0% 80.3% 18.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.10
2029 0.0% 0.0% 64.7% 34.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.18
2030 0.0% 0.0% 49.2% 49.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.26
2031 0.0% 0.0% 33.6% 65.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.34
2032 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 81.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.41
2033 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 96.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.49
2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 85.9% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.57
2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.4% 29.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.65
2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54.8% 45.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.73
2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.3% 60.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.80
2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 76.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.88
2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 91.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.96
2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.04
2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 77.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.11
2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 61.5% 38.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.19
2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45.9% 54.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.27
2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.3% 69.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.35
2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 85.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.43
2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.2% 0.8% 0.0% 15.50



### 10.2.2 Heat Pumps

10.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies
For both HP product classes—split systems and single package systems—DOE developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific efficiency

10-13

### levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE de termined the distribution of product efficiencies currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER-based SWEF for the year 2016. DOE derived its base-case efficiency distributions for split system and single package HPs on SWEF data provided by AHRI in combination with the ra nge of product offerings in AHRI’s listing of certified unitary HP equipment. For more details on the derivation of the split system and single package base case efficiencies, refer to section 8.2.3.8 of chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis.

AHRI’s SWEF data for HPs was based so lely on SEER—not HSPF. To determine HSPF-based SWEFs for the base case, DOE used the SEER and HSPF pairings presented in section 5.9.1 of chapter 5, Engineering Analysis, to define the relationship between SEER and HSPF for both split system and single package HPs. The SEER and HSPF pairings for split system HPs are graphically presented in Figure 10.2.5. As is evident from this figure, the relationship can be represented accurately with a second-order polynomial expression.

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.5
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 SEER



### Figure 10.2.5 Split System HP: HSPF and SEER relationship

The SEER and HSPF pairings for single packag e HPs are graphically presented in Figure 10.2.6. For single package units, the HSPF is dependent on the following ranges of SEER:

SEER < 14, HSPF = 0.30 * SEER + 3.80;

14 ≤ SEER < 15, HSPF = 8.0;

10-14HSPF HSPF = 0.025 * SEER 2 - 0.408 * SEER + 8.789

### 15 ≤ SEER < 16, HSPF = 1.0 * SEER + 7.00; and

SEER ≥ 16, HSPF = 9.00.HSPF 9.5

9.0

8.5

HSPF = 0.30 * SEER + 3.80 SEER < 14 HSPF = 8.00 14 < SEER < 15 HSPF = 1.00 * SEER - 7.00 15 < SEER < 16 HSPF = 9.00 SEER > 16

8.0

7.5
12 16 17



### Figure 10.2.6 Single Package HP: HSPF and SEER relationship

For its determination of sta ndards-case efficiencies, DOE a ssumed a “roll-up” scenario to establish both a SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (i.e., 2016). Using the sa me method as was developed for CACs, DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not m eet the standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. Also, DOE assumed that all product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under consideration would not be affected.

Tables 10.2.8 and 10.2.9 present the efficiency distributions and resulting SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEFs for the base case and standards cases for split system and single package HPs, respectively. Each table clearly shows how each standards case, under a “roll-up” scenario, affects the e fficiency distribution. 13 14 15 SEER

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### Table 10.2.8 Split System HP: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER HSPF Market Share

Base Case Standards Case
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Baseline 13.0 7.7 13%

- - - - - - - - - - 1 13.5 7.9 52% 65%

- - - - - - - - - 2 14.0 8.0 10% 10% 75%

- - - - - - - - 3 14.5 8.2 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 84%

- - - - - - - 4 15.0 8.3 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 89.5%

- - - - - - 5 15.5 8.5 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 93%

- - - - - 6 16.0 8.6 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 96%

- - - - 7 17.0 9.1 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 98%

- - - 8 18.0 9.6 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 99.5%

- - 9 19.0 10.1 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 100%

- 10 19.5 10.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0. 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% SWEF (SEER) 13.97 14.03 14.36 14.73 15.15 15.60 16.07 17.03 18.01 19.00 19.50 SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8. 49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30



### Table 10.2.9 Single Package HP: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER HSPF Market Share

Base Case Standards Case
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Baseline 13.0 7.7 50%

- - - - - - - 1 13.5 7.9 32% 82%

- - - - - - 2 14.0 8.0 11% 11% 93%

- - - - - 3 14.5 8.0 5% 5% 5% 98%

- - - - 4 15.0 8.0 2% 2% 2% 2% 100% - - - 5 15.5 8.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% - - 6 16.0 9.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% - 7 16.4 9.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00



### 10.2.2.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends
Historical Efficiency Trends Using the SWEF for the year 2016 as a starting point, DOE developed a SEER-based base case forecasted efficiency trend based on a ssumptions regarding future efficiency growth. To estimate SEER-based SWEFs over the 30 ye ar forecast spanning 2016–2046 (2016 being the

10-16

### assumed effective date of a new standard), DOE reviewed historical SWEF data provided by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Ins titute (AHRI) spanning the years 1992 to 2008. 1 

### Between 1992, the year in which the first set of standards for CAC and HPs became effective, and 2006, when an updated set of standards becam e effective, the SEER-based SWEFs for HPs grew by approximately one SEER point. Figu re 10.2.7 shows the SEER-based SWEFs for split system and single package HPs. The figure also presents the linear fit to each product class’ SWEF data series. The linear fits have high coefficients of determination, i.e., linear fits provide a good estimate of the SWEF growth rate. Table 10.2.10 provides a summary of the SEERbased SWEF growth rates fo r each product class.

Split HP SEER = 0.0739 * year - 136.55 R2 = 0.9594

Package HP SEER = 0.0736 * year - 136.03 R2 = 0.8886

10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

YearShipment-Weighted SEER Split HP Package HP Linear (Split HP) Linear (Package HP)



### Figure 10.2.7 Heat Pump Historical SWEFs base d on SEER with Linear Fits

Table 10.2.10 Heat Pump SWEF Growth Rates
SWEF Growth Rate
Product Class SEER increase per year Split System Heat Pumps 0.0739 Single Package Heat Pumps 0.0736



### Base Case Efficiency Trends Because various market-pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs were in existence from 1992 to 2005, the SEER-based SWEF growth rate evident in the historical data was likely due in part to these market-pull programs. As a result, DOE applied the SEER-based SWEF growth rates in Table 10.2.6 to the SWEFs in 2016 to forecast annual

10-17

### SEER-based SWEFs for the HP product classes from 2016 to 2046. Application of the SWEF growth rates in this manner assumes that future market-pull programs will be as effective at increasing product efficiency as past programs.

Standards Case E fficiency Trends To develop standards case forecasted S EER-based SWEFs, DOE developed growth trends for each candidate standard level that maintained the same per-unit average total installed cost difference for the year 2016 between the ba se case and each standards case over the entire forecast period (2016–2046). DOE’s approach fo r developing standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient pr oducts under the standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held co nstant. Because the total installed cost versus efficiency relationship for each product class dem onstrates an increasing cost rate for more efficient products, the SEER-based SWEF growth rate for each standards case is lower than the SEER-based SWEF growth rate for the base case.

Depicting Base Case and Stan dards Case Effi ciency Trends Figures 10.2.8 and 10.2.9 show the base case hi storical SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecast ed efficiency trend for split system HP SEER and HSPF, respectively. The HSPF-based SWEF s were derived from the SEER-based SWEFs using the SEER and HSPF relationship for sp lit systems presented in section 10.2.2.1. Looking at Figure 10.2.8 closely, it can be seen that th e standards case SEER-based SWEF growth rates are slightly lower than the SWEF growth rate fo r the base case. Note that for some standards cases, the efficiency trend does not increase past the Max Tech level. The Max Tech level for split systems is 19.5 SEER and 10.3 HSPF.

10-18SWEF (SEER) 20

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

1990 Base Case
CSL 1: 13.5 SEER
CSL 2: 14 SEER
CSL 3: 14.5 SEER
CSL 4: 15 SEER
CSL 5: 15.5 SEER
CSL 6: 16 SEER
CSL 7: 17 SEER
CSL 8: 18 SEER
CSl 9: 19 SEER
CSL 10: 19.5 SEER

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Year 

### Figure 10.2.8 Split System HP: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10.5 Base Case
CSL 1: 13.5 SEER 10.0 CSL 2: 14 SEER
CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 9.5SWEF (HSPF) 9.0

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0
1990 CSL 4: 15 SEER
CSL 5: 15.5 SEER
CSL 6: 16 SEER
CSL 7: 17 SEER
CSL 8: 18 SEER
CSl 9: 19 SEER
CSL 10: 19.5 SEER

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Year 

### Figure 10.2.9 Split System HP: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

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### Figures 10.2.10 and 10.2.11 show the base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for single package HP SEER and HSPF, respectively. The HSPF-based SWEFs were derived from the SEER-based SWEFs using the SEER and HSPF re lationship for single package units presented in section 10.2.2.1. Looking at Figure 10.2.10 closely, it can be seen that the standards case SEER-based SWEF growth rates are slightly lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case. Note that for some standards cases, the efficiency trend does not increase past the Max Tech level. The Max Tech level for single package units is 16.4 SEER and 0.9 HSPF.

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (SEER) Base Case CSL 1: 13.5 SEER
CSL 2: 14 SEER CSL 3: 14.5 SEER CSL 4: 15 SEER CSL 5: 15.5 SEER
CSL 6: 16 SEER CSL 7: 16.4 SEER



### Figure 10.2.10 Single Package HP: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10-206.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (HSPF) Base Case CSL 1: 13.5 SEER CSL 2: 14 SEER CSL 3: 14.5 SEER CSL 4: 15 SEER CSL 5: 15.5 SEER CSL 6: 16 SEER CSL 7: 16.4 SEER



### Figure 10.2.11 Single Package HP: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10.2.2.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions
Once DOE developed base case and standa rds case efficiency trends, it derived a distribution of product efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis period (2016–2046) by developing appr opriate market shares for the various standard levels.

As specified in Tables 10.2.8 and 10.2.9, DOE developed the product efficiency distributions for the year the standard is assu med to become effective (2016) using a “roll-up” scenario. For subsequent years (2017–2046), DOE a ssigned the market shares to the standard levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained equal to the forecasted SWEF. This assignment was conducted by pulling market shar es from lower efficiency levels to higher efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the forecasted value.

Tables 10.2.11 and 10.2.12 provide examples of forecasted efficiency distributions—the specific cases of the forecasted SEER-based efficiency distributions for the base case (without standards) for split system and single package HPs, respectively. The tables also provide the resulting SEER-based SWEF for each year during the forecast period. The NIA spreadsheet (detailed in Appendix 10-A) provides the forecasted efficiency distributions for all the standards cases for both split system and single package HPs.

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### Table 10.2.11 Split System HPs: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Shares by SEER Level
SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 17 18 19 19.5
2016 13.0% 52.0% 10.0% 9.0% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 13.97
2017 0.0% 63.2% 11.8% 9.0% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.04
2018 0.0% 48.4% 26.6% 9.0% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.12
2019 0.0% 33.7% 41.3% 9.0% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.19
2020 0.0% 18.9% 56.1% 9.0% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.26
2021 0.0% 4.1% 70.9% 9.0% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.34
2022 0.0% 0.0% 64.3% 19.7% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.41
2023 0.0% 0.0% 49.5% 34.5% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.48
2024 0.0% 0.0% 34.7% 49.3% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.56
2025 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 64.0% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.63
2026 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 78.8% 5.5% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.71
2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.4% 15.1% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.78
2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59.6% 29.9% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.85
2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.8% 44.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.93
2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 59.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.00
2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 74.2% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.08
2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 89.0% 3. 5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.15
2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.2% 17. 8% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.22
2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.4% 32. 6% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.30
2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 47. 4% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.37
2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.9% 62. 1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.45
2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 76. 9% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.52
2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 91.7% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.59
2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79.5% 16.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.67
2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 64.7% 31.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.74
2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9% 46.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.82
2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35.2% 60.8% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.89
2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 75.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.96
2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 90.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.04
2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91.4% 6.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.11
2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.0% 14.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.18

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### Table 10.2.12 Single Package HPs: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Share by SEER Level
SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.4
2016 50.0% 32.0% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.39
2017 35.3% 46.7% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.46
2018 20.6% 61.4% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.53
2019 5.9% 76.1% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.61
2020 0.0% 73.2% 19.8% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.68
2021 0.0% 58.4% 34.6% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.75
2022 0.0% 43.7% 49.3% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.83
2023 0.0% 29.0% 64.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.90
2024 0.0% 14.3% 78.7% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.97
2025 0.0% 0.0% 92.6% 5.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.05
2026 0.0% 0.0% 77.9% 20.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.12
2027 0.0% 0.0% 63.2% 34.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.19
2028 0.0% 0.0% 48.5% 49.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.27
2029 0.0% 0.0% 33.7% 64.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.34
2030 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 79.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.41
2031 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 93.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.49
2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.6% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.56
2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 72.9% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.64
2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.2% 41.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.71
2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.5% 56.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.78
2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.8% 71.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.86
2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 85.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.93
2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.00
2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.6% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.08
2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 69.9% 30.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.15
2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55.2% 44.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.22
2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.5% 59.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.30
2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.8% 74.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.37
2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 88.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.44
2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.4% 3.6% 0.0% 15.52
2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 81.7% 18.3% 0.0% 15.59



### 10.3 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

This section describes DOE’s calculation of national energy savings (NES) and regional energy savings (RES) for central air conditi oners and heat pumps under various CSLs or standards cases. Similar methods are used to calcul ate energy savings for the Nation and for each

10-23

### of the three climate regions that are evaluated separately (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation).

10.3.1 Definition
As the following equation illu strates, DOE calculates annual NES and RES as the difference between two projections: a base case (without new standards) and a standards case (with new standards). Positive values of NES or RES indicate energy savings (i.e., annual energy consumption ( AEC ) in the standards case is less than AEC in the base case). The calculation of annual nation energy savings ( NES y 

### ) and annual regional energy savings ( RES y 

### ) are represented by the following expressions.

_ 

### NES y 

### = AEC natl

− base 

### AEC natl

− std

_ 

### REG y 

### = AEC reg

− base 

### AEC reg

− std



### Cumulative energy savings are the sum over the forecast period, which extends from a standard’s assumed effective date (2016), to 30 years after the effective date (2046), of the annual NES and annual RES for each region. This calculation is repr esented by the following equations for :

NES = 

# ∑ NES
cum y



### RES

cum 

### = 

# ∑ RES y



### DOE calculated AEC by multiplying the number or stock of a given product (by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (also by vintag e). The calculation of the national and each regional AEC is represented by the following equation:

AEC = 

# ∑ STOCK V 

### × UEC V



### DOE defined the variables in th e above expressions as follows:

AEC = annual energy consumption each year for the Nation or region in quadrillion British thermal units (Btus)—or quads—summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V 

### ; NES y 

### = national annual energy savings (quads); RES y 

### = regional annual energy savings (quads); NES cum 

### = national cumulative energy savings (quads); RES cum 

### = regional cumulative energy savings (quads); STOCK V



### = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for which DOE calculated annual energy consump tion (vintages range from approximately

10-24

### two to approximately 50 years, dependi ng on the retirement function of the product); UEC V 

### = annual energy consumption per produc t in kilowatt-hours (kWh); electricity consumption is converted from site energy to source energy (quads) by applying a time-dependent conversion factor; natl = designates the quantity corresponds to the Nation;
reg = designates the quantity corresponds to a region; base = designates the quantity corresponds to the base case; std = designates the quantity corresponds to the standards case;
y = year in the forecast (2016–2046); and

cum = cumulative over the forecast period (2016–2046); and V

= year in which the product was purchased as a new unit.

The stock of equipment depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the given product. As described in chapter 9, DOE projected shipments for the base case and standards

cases.

10.3.2 Inputs to Calculation
The inputs for calculating national and regional energy savings are:

• Average annual energy consumption per unit ( UEC ),

• shipments,

• equipment stock ( STOCK V



### ),

• annual energy consumption for the Nation or a give region ( AEC ), and

• site-to-source conversion factor ( src_conv ).

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit
For each product class, DOE presented th e per-unit annual energy consumption as a function of product efficiency in chapter 6, En ergy Use Determination. Because the per-unit annual energy consumption is directly depe ndent on efficiency, DOE used the shipmentsweighted energy efficiency (SWEF) of the ba se and standards cases presented in section 10.2, along with the annual energy use data presented in chapters 6 and 8, to estimate the shipmentweighted average annual per-unit energy cons umption (UEC) under the base and standards cases. The following sections describe DOE’s calculation of the shipment-weighted average annual UEC for both product classes of CAC and HPs.



### Split System CACs DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system CACs on data presented in chapter 6. Based on the relationship between CA C efficiency (SEER) and annual UEC, Table 10.3.1 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new cons truction coil-only installations for the Nation and the three specific regions ( hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table

10-25

### 10.3.2 presents the same UEC data but for coil-only units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In both tables, UECs are presented for both reside ntial and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corre sponding to the shipment-weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annua l UECs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.1 demonstrates how the UECs for ne w construction coil-only installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. Because SWEFs in the base case and each standards case were forecast ed to increase over the forecast period, the corresponding UEC decreases over time. As not ed earlier in section 10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach for forecasting standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the shipmentweighted average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period be held constant. Beca use the total installed cost versus efficiency relationship for split system coil-only CACs demonstrates an increasing cost rate for more efficient products, the SWEF growth rate for each standards case is lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case. This is evident in Figu re 10.3.1 as the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between CSL 2 and the base case decreases over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighte d SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted UEC have achieved their maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.3.1 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50

Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Sector Region

Resid. Nation 2351 2328 2260 2193 2126 2061 2000 1939

Hot-Humid 3458 3425 3324 3226 3128 3033 2942 2853
Hot-Dry 1998 1979 1921 1864 1807 1752 1700 1648 Rest-of-Country 1252 1240 1203 1167 1132 1098 1065 1032

Comm. Nation 2338 2331 2307 2260 2210 2157 2104 2091

Hot-Humid 2637 2627 2596 2545 2490 2432 2374 2357 Hot-Dry 2403 2395 2370 2321 2269 2215 2160 2147 Rest-of-Country 2053 2048 2032 1989 1943 1896 1848 1840

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### Table 10.3.2 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50

Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Sector Region

Resid. Nation 2287 2265 2199 2133 2069 2006 1945 1887

Hot-Humid 3472 3439 3338 3239 3140 3045 2953 2864
Hot-Dry 2076 2056 1996 1936 1878 1821 1766 1713 Rest-of-Country 1268 1256 1219 1182 1146 1112 1078 1046

Comm. Nation 2345 2338 2314 2267 2216 2164 2110 2098

Hot-Humid 2607 2598 2567 2516 2461 2405 2347 2331 Hot-Dry 2375 2368 2344 2295 2244 2191 2136 2123 Rest-of-Country 2050 2045 2029 1986 1941 1894 1846 1837

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.5 SER)



### Figure 10.3.1 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

10-27

### Table 10.3.3 presents the base case and stan dards case shipment-weighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction blower coil installations for the Nation and the three speci fic regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-ofcountry). Table 10.3.4 presents the same UEC data but for blower coil units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In both tables , UECs are presented for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annua l UECs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.2 demonstrates how the UECs for new construction blower coil installations for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 9, and CSL 13) change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil-only units, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between the CSLs and the base case decrease over time. This is not evident in CSL 13, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted UEC have achieved their maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.3.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16. 95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00

Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Sector Region

Resid. Nation 2229 2212 2160 2109 2059 2010 1963 1917 1874 1784 1697 1616 1541 1471

Hot-Humid 3310 3285 3207 3132 3057 2984 2914 2846 2782 2649 2519 2399 2288 2185
Hot-Dry 1906 1891 1847 1803 1760 1718 1678 1639 1602 1525 1451 1382 1318 1258 Rest-of-Cntry 1150 1142 1115 1088 1062 1037 1013 989 967 921 876 834 795 759

Comm. Nation 2287 2282 2264 2228 2190 2150 2110 2100 2091 2069 2045 2020 1995 1970

Hot-Humid 2532 2525 2502 2464 2423 2380 2336 2324 2312 2284 2253 2222 2190 2157 Hot-Dry 2306 2300 2282 2245 2207 2167 2126 2116 2106 2084 2059 2034 2008 1982 Rest-of-Cntry 1987 1984 1971 1940 1906 1870 1834 1828 1821 1806 1790 1774 1757 1740

10-28

### Table 10.3.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: Replacement and New Owner Markets, Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16. 95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00

Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Sector Region

Resid. Nation 2167 2150 2100 2050 2001 1954 1908 1863 1821 1734 1649 1571 1498 1431

Hot-Humid 3257 3232 3156 3082 3008 2937 2868 2801 2738 2606 2479 2361 2252 2150
Hot-Dry 1933 1918 1873 1829 1785 1742 1702 1662 1624 1546 1471 1401 1336 1276 Rest-of-Cntry 1180 1171 1143 1116 1090 1064 1039 1015 992 944 898 855 816 779

Comm. Nation 2274 2269 2251 2215 2177 2138 2098 2088 2079 2057 2033 2009 1984 1959

Hot-Humid 2546 2539 2516 2477 2436 2393 2349 2337 2325 2296 2265 2234 2201 2168 Hot-Dry 2311 2305 2287 2250 2212 2172 2131 2121 2111 2088 2064 2038 2012 1986 Rest-of-Cntry 1989 1985 1973 1941 1907 1872 1836 1829 1823 1808 1792 1775 1758 1741

1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 9 (18 SEER) CSL 13 (22 SEER)



### Figure 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016

- 2046 Forecast Period

10-29

### Central Air Conditioners —Single Package System
DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of single p ackage CACs on data presented in chapter 6. Based on the relationship between CAC efficiency (SEER) and annual UEC, Table 10.3.5 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Unlike split systems, the UECs for single package systems do not vary based on the insta llation (i.e., new construc tion, replacement, or new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for both residential and commercial installations. Also, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annua l UECs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.3 demonstrates how the UECs for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil-only and blower coil split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between the CSL 2 and the base case decrease over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corres ponding shipment-weighted UEC have achieved their maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.3.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average perUnit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60

Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Sector Region

Resid. Nation 2346 2280 2202 2129 2058 1992 1930 1860

Hot-Humid 3627 3525 3405 3291 3182 3080 2983 2876 Hot-Dry 2123 2063 1993 1926 1863 1803 1746 1683 Rest-of-Country 1292 1256 1213 1173 1134 1097 1063 1025

Comm. Nation 2376 2354 2327 2273 2218 2162 2106 2091

Hot-Humid 2662 2634 2598 2540 2480 2419 2359 2339 Hot-Dry 2422 2399 2370 2315 2259 2202 2145 2129 Rest-of-Country 2071 2057 2038 1989 1940 1890 1840 1830

10-301800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.6 SER)



### Figure 10.3.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period



### Heat Pumps—Split System
DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system HPs on data presented in chapter 6. Based on the relationship between HP efficiency and annual UEC, Table 10.3.6 presents the base case and standards case sh ipment-weighted annual space-cooling and spaceheating UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed eff ective date of new standards). The UECs for split system heat pumps do not vary based on the installation (i.e., new construction, replacement, or new owner). In the table belo w, UECs are presented for both residential and commercial installations. Also, the SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEFs corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual space-cooling and sp ace-heating UECs, respectively, are also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annua l UECs change over the forecast period, Figures 10.3.4 and 10.3.5 demonstrate how the space-cooling and space-heating UECs, respectively, for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 7, and CSL 10) change over time. For the same reasons given above fo r split system and single package central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between the CSLs and the base case decrease over time. This is not evident in CSL 10, the Max Tech standards case, as the

10-31

### shipment-weighted SWEFs and the corresponding sh ipment-weighted UECs have achieved their maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.3.6 Split System Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SWEF (SEER) 13.77 13.89 14.28 14.70 15.14 15.59 16.06 17.03 18.02 19.01 19.50
SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8. 49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30

Cooling Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Sector Region

Resid. Nation 3337 3320 3240 3154 3065 2975 2888 2725 2576 2441 2379

Hot-Humid 4109 4087 3989 3884 3773 3664 3556 3355 3172 3006 2929
Hot-Dry 4054 4033 3936 3832 3724 3615 3509 3310 3130 2966 2890
Rest-of-Country 1840 1831 1787 1740 1690 1641 1593 1503 1421 1346 1312

Comm. Nation 2366 2364 2354 2315 2271 2224 2175 2149 2123 2096 2082

Hot-Humid 2643 2640 2627 2585 2538 2488 2436 2402 2368 2333 2316
Hot-Dry 2398 2396 2386 2346 2301 2253 2204 2177 2149 2121 2107
Rest-of-Country 2070 2069 2062 2026 1986 1943 1898 1881 1863 1844 1835

Heating Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Resid. Nation 1779 1775 1753 1728 1702 1674 1647 1560 1480 1407 1380

Hot-Humid 1306 1303 1287 1269 1249 1229 1209 1145 1087 1033 1013
Hot-Dry 949 946 935 922 907 893 878 832 789 750 736
Rest-of-Country 2998 2991 2953 2912 2867 2822 2776 2629 2494 2371 2325

Comm. Nation 463 463 462 463 464 465 466 464 462 459 458

Hot-Humid 215 215 215 215 215 215 216 215 213 212 212
Hot-Dry 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 120 120
Rest-of-Country 1065 1064 1062 1064 1066 1068 1070 1066 1061 1056 1053

10-322300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (17 SEER) CSL 10 (19.5 SEER)



### Figure 10.3.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

10-331300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Heating Energy Use (kWh/yr) Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (17 SEER) CSL 10 (19.5 SEER)



### Figure 10.3.5 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period



### Heat Pumps—Single Package System DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system heat pumps (HPs) on data presented in chapter 6. Based on the relationship between HP efficiency and annual UEC, Table 10.3.7 presents the base case and standards ca se shipment-weighted annual space-cooling and space-heating UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). The UECs for split system heat pumps do not vary base d on the installation (i .e., new construction, replacement, or new owner). In the table belo w, UECs are presented for both residential and commercial installations. Also, the SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEFs corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual space-cooling and sp ace-heating UECs, respectively, are also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annua l UECs change over the forecast period, Figures 10.3.6 and 10.3.7 demonstrate how the space-cooling and space-heating UECs, respectively, for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system heat pumps, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between the CSL 2 and the base case decrease over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-wei ghted SWEFs and the corresponding shipment10-34

### weighted UECs have achieved their maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00

Cooling Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Sector Region

Resid. Nation 3446 3380 3280 3175 3071 2972 2879 2809

Hot-Humid 4294 4212 4087 3956 3826 3703 3587 3500
Hot-Dry 4223 4143 4020 3891 3764 3642 3529 3443 Rest-of-Country 1899 1863 1808 1750 1692 1638 1587 1548

Comm. Nation 2392 2384 2372 2323 2272 2219 2167 2157

Hot-Humid 2666 2656 2640 2588 2533 2478 2422 2408 Hot-Dry 2429 2421 2408 2358 2306 2253 2200 2188 Rest-of-Country 2102 2097 2088 2044 1997 1949 1900 1893

Heating Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Resid. Nation 1790 1773 1745 1745 1745 1643 1551 1551

Hot-Humid 1334 1321 1301 1301 1301 1224 1156 1156 Hot-Dry 975 965 950 950 950 894 845 845 Rest-of-Country 3056 3027 2980 2980 2980 2805 2649 2649

Comm. Nation 477 476 475 476 477 478 479 478

Hot-Humid 221 221 220 220 221 221 221 221 Hot-Dry 125 125 124 125 125 125 125 125 Rest-of-Country 1054 1052 1050 1052 1054 1057 1059 1057

10-352800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.4 SER)



### Figure 10.3.6 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

10-361500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Heating Energy Use (kWh/yr) Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.4 SER)



### Figure 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

10.3.2.2 Shipments including Equipment Switching
DOE forecasted shipments for the base case and all standards cases for the Nation as a whole and for the three climate regions that we re evaluated separately (the hot-humid region, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). An extens ive description of the methodology for conducting and generating the shipments foreca sts for all four of the product cl asses is presented in Chapter 9, Shipments Analysis.

In projecting standards case shipments, DOE analyzed the combined effects of increased total installed costs (purchase price plus insta llation costs), operating cost savings, and household income on consumer replacement and new owner purchase decisions. DOE determined that increased total installed cost is the most significant effect and impacts consumer replacement and new owner purchase decisions. As described in section 9.3 of chapter 9, DOE treated the impact of total installed cost increases on standards ca se shipments differently for the new construction, replacement, and new owner markets.

For new construction purchases of split system and single package CACs and HPs, DOE assumed consumers were unaffected by an increase in total installed cost. In other words, DOE

10-37

### assumed new construction ship ments under any standards case equaled new construction shipments under the base case.

For replacement purchases of split system and single package CACs and HPs, DOE assumed consumers affected by an increase in to tal installed cost would repair their equipment rather than replace it, extending th e life of the product by six years.

For new owner purchases of split system and single package CACs, DOE assumed consumers affected by an increase in total installed cost would switch equipment and purchase a room air conditioner rather than a CAC. Because room air conditioners have lower cooling capacities and lower overall annua l energy consumption than CACs, DOE did not explicitly account for the increased sales of room air conditi oners in its analysis. Doing so would have credited a standard with energy savings from displaced CAC shipments. To avoid including savings from displaced shipments to new owne rs, DOE used the shipments projection estimates for the standards cases to calculate the a nnual energy consumption in the base case.

For new owner purchases of split system and single package HPs, DOE assumed that consumers affected by an increase in total installed cost would switch equipment and purchase a combination electric resistance furnace and CAC rather than a HP. In its analysis of HP shipments in the NIA, DOE tracked purchases of electric furnaces and CACs due to decreases in shipments of HPs in order to quantify the energy impacts for consumers who were estimated to forgo purchasing a new HP. Because DOE explicitl y accounted for the energy consumption of the displaced shipments of HPs, it maintained use of the base case shipments to determine the annual energy consumption in the base case.

For the analysis of new owner purchases of split system HPs, DOE assumed that those

consumers switching equipment would purchase a combination coil-only split system CAC and electric resistance furnace. For a given split system HP standard level, DOE assumed that the efficiency of the alternative split system CAC would be equal to the SEER of the foregone HP. As a result, DOE assumed the space-cooling UEC of the alternative split system CAC was no different than the space-cooling UEC of the forgone split system HP. The exception pertains to HP standard levels of 17 SEER and greater. The alternative coil-only split system CAC has a maximum efficiency of 16.5 SEER while the split system HP has a higher maximum efficiency level of 19.5 SEER. Therefore, for split system HP standard levels of 17 SEER and higher, the efficiency of the alternative coil-only split system CAC was held at 16.5 SEER. Correspondingly, at these maximum efficiency le vels, the space-cooling UEC of the alternative split system CAC was greater than the UEC of the forgone split system HP which it was replacing. On the space-heating side, DOE assumed the UEC of the replacement electric resistance furnace had a coeffici ent of performance (COP) of 1.0 (equivalent to a 3.41 HSPF). Therefore, the electric furnace space-heating UEC was assumed to equal the space-heating UEC of the forgone HP at the base case level multiplied by the ratio of the HP efficiency at the base case level and the electric furnace efficiency. Table 10.3.8 presents the space-cooling and spaceheating UECs of the alternative coil-only split system CAC and electric furnace combination in the year 2016. UECs are provided for each of the candidate standard levels considered for split system HPs. As with the space-cooling UECs for heat pumps, the space-cooling UECs of the

10-38

### alternative split system CACs also decrease over the forecast period of 2016

─ 2046 because of the adoption of more efficient equipment over tim e (refer to Figure 10.3.4 for split system HPs). Because electric resi stance furnaces only have a single effi ciency (COP = 1.0), the space-heating UECs of electric furnaces remain constant over the forecast period.

Table 10.3.8 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption of Alternative Combination Coil-Only Split System Central Air Conditioner and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Split Heat Pump Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Cooling Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Sector Region

Resid. Nation 3407 3374 3275 3178 3081 2988 2898 2728 2728 2728 2728

Hot-Humid 4195 4155 4033 3913 3794 3679 3568 3359 3359 3359 3359
Hot-Dry 4140 4100 3979 3861 3744 3630 3521 3315 3315 3315 3315
Rest-of-Country 1879 1861 1806 1753 1699 1648 1598 1505 1505 1505 1505

Comm. Nation 2385 2381 2368 2324 2276 2227 2177 2150 2150 2150 2150

Hot-Humid 2664 2659 2642 2595 2544 2492 2438 2403 2403 2403 2403
Hot-Dry 2417 2413 2400 2355 2306 2256 2205 2177 2177 2177 2177
Rest-of-Country 2086 2083 2075 2034 1990 1945 1899 1881 1881 1881 1881

Heating Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Resid. Nation 4173 4173 4171 4169 4168 4168 4167 4166 4166 4166 4166

Hot-Humid 3063 3063 3062 3061 3060 3060 3059 3058 3058 3058 3058
Hot-Dry 2225 2225 2224 2224 2223 2223 2222 2222 2222 2222 2222
Rest-of-Country 7032 7032 7029 7026 7025 7023 7022 7021 7020 7020 7020

Comm. Nation 1086 1089 1100 1117 1137 1157 1178 1238 1299 1360 1384

Hot-Humid 505 506 511 519 527 536 546 573 601 629 639
Hot-Dry 283 284 287 292 297 302 307 323 339 355 362
Rest-of-Country 2496 2502 2528 2568 2612 2659 2708 2846 2985 3125 3179



### For the analysis of new owner purchases of single package HPs, DOE assumed that those

consumers switching equipment would purchase a combination single package CAC and electric furnace. For a given single package HP standard level, DOE assumed that the efficiency of the alternative single package CAC woul d be equal to the SEER of the foregone HP. As a result, the space-cooling UEC of the alternative single package CAC was assumed to be no different than the space-cooling UEC of the forgone single package HP. The one exception pertains to the maximum efficiency HP standard level of 16.4 SEER. The altern ative single package CAC has a maximum efficiency of 16.6 SEER. Therefore, fo r the single package HP standard levels of 16.4 SEER, the efficiency of the alternative single package CAC was set at 16.6 SEER. Correspondingly, at the maximum efficiency leve l, the space-cooling UEC of the alternative

10-39

### single package CAC was slightly less than the UEC of the forgone single package HP which it was replacing. On the space-heating side, DOE assumed the UEC of the replacement electric furnace had a coefficient of pe rformance (COP) of 1.0 (equivalent to a 3.41 HSPF). Therefore, the electric furnace space-heating UEC was assumed to equal the space-heating UEC of the forgone HP at the base case level multiplied by the ratio of the HP efficiency at the base case level and the electric furnace efficiency. Table 10.3.9 presents the space-cooling and spaceheating UECs of the alternative single pack age CAC and electric furnace combination. UECs are provided for each of the candidate standard levels considered for single package HPs. As with the space-cooling UECs for heat pumps, the space-cooling UECs of the alternative single package CACs will also decrease over the forecast period of 2016

─ 2046 because of the adoption of more efficient equipment over time (refer to Figure 10.3.6 for single package HPs). Because electric resistance furnaces only have a single efficiency (COP = 1.0), the space-heating UECs of electric furnaces remain cons tant over the forecast period.

Table 10.3.9 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption of Alternative Combination Single Package Central Air Conditioner and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Single Package Candidate Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Cooling Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Sector Region

Resid. Nation 3500 3402 3286 3176 3071 2972 2879 2809

Hot-Humid 4361 4239 4094 3957 3826 3703 3587 3500
Hot-Dry 4290 4169 4027 3892 3764 3642 3529 3443 Rest-of-Country 1929 1875 1811 1750 1692 1638 1587 1548

Comm. Nation 2400 2389 2374 2323 2272 2219 2167 2157

Hot-Humid 2676 2662 2643 2589 2533 2478 2422 2408 Hot-Dry 2438 2426 2410 2359 2306 2253 2200 2188 Rest-of-Country 2109 2101 2091 2044 1997 1949 1900 1893

Heating Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr) Resid. Nation 4071 4092 4092 4092 4092 4092 4092 4092

Hot-Humid 3054 3050 3050 3050 3050 3050 3050 3050 Hot-Dry 2238 2228 2228 2228 2228 2228 2228 2228 Rest-of-Country 6970 6988 6987 6987 6987 6987 6987 6987

Comm. Nation 1089 1100 1115 1117 1119 1192 1264 1262

Hot-Humid 505 510 516 517 518 551 584 583 Hot-Dry 285 288 292 292 293 312 331 330 Rest-of-Country 2406 2429 2462 2467 2472 2633 2794 2788

10-40

### 10.3.2.3 Equipment Stock
The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual ship ments and the lifetime of a given product class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each year. The lifetime of a unit (18.3 years for CACs and 15.5 years for heat pumps) determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the given year. DOE assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival functi on. Refer to chapter 8, section 8.2.3.5 for further details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis.

10.3.2.4 Annual Energy Consumption
For each product class, DOE calculated na tional annual energy consumption (AEC) and AECs for each of the three climate regions being evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Annual energy consum ption is the product of the AEC per unit [also termed the unit energy consumption (UEC)] and the number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in UEC from year to year. The equation for determining annual energy consumption, presented in section 10.3.1, is repeated here.

AEC = 

# ∑ STOCK V 

### × UEC V



### 10.3.2.5 Site-to-Source Energy Conversion Factors
In determining annual energy consumpti on for the Nation and for each of the three regions being evaluated separately, DOE initiall y calculated the annual energy consumption at the site ( i.e. , the energy in kWh consumed at the house hold or establishment). It then derived primary (source) energy from site energy cons umption by applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the generati on, transmission, and distri bution of electricity. The site-to-source conversion factor is a multiplicative factor used for converting site energy consumption into primary or source energy consumption, expressed in quads. DOE used annual site-to-source conversion factors based on the ve rsion of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that corresponds to Energy Information Administration (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook 2009 ( AEO 2009 ). 2 

### The factors used are marginal values , which represent the response of the electrical system to an incremen tal decrease in consumption. The conversion factors change over time, in response to projected changes in generation sources (the types of power plants projected to provide electricity to the country). DOE assu med that conversion factors remain constant at 2030 values throughout the rest of forecast period. Table 10.3.10 shows the site-to-source conversion factors from 2005 to the end of the forecast period (2046).

10-41

### Table 10.3.10 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

Year Electricity Btu/kWh Year Electricity Btu/kWh
2005 11,500 2011 9,737
2006 11,500 2012 9,649
2007 11,200 2013 9,649
2008 10,000 2014 8,649
2009 9,737 2015 7,324
2010 9,737 2016-2070 7,024



### 10.4 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL NET PRESENT VALUE

This section describes DOE’s calculation of the national and regional net present value (NPV) of costs and savings for the four product classes of central air conditioners and heat pumps under various candidate standards levels. Calculations were perf ormed for the national NPV and NPVs for each of the three climate regions that are evaluated separately (hot-humid, hot-dry, and the rest of the Nation).

10.4.1 Definition
The NPV is the value in the present of a time-series of costs and savings. The NPV for the Nation as a whole and the three regions evalua ted separately is descri bed by the equation:

_ 

### NPV = PVS PVC



### Where:

PVS = present value of savings in operating cost (including costs for energy, repair, and maintenance); and PVC = present value of increase in total insta lled cost (including costs for equipment and installation).

DOE determined the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions.

PVS = 

# ∑ OCS y 

### × DF y



### PVC = 

# ∑ TIC y 

### × DF y



### DOE calculated the total annual savings in ope rating cost for the Nation as a whole and the three regions evaluated separately by multiplying the number or stock of a given product (by vintage) by its per-unit operating cost savings (also by vintage). DOE cal culated the total annual

10-42

### increase in installed cost for the Nation as a whole and the three regions by multiplying the number or stock of a given product (by vintage) by its per-unit total installed cost increase (also by vintage). Total annual savings in operating cost and increases in installed cost are calculated using the following equations.

OCS y 

### = 

# ∑ STOCK V 

### × UOCS V



### TIC y 

### = 

# ∑ STOCK V 

### × UTIC V



### DOE defined the variables in th e above expressions as follows.

OCS = total annual savings in operating cost each year summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V 

### ; TIC = total annual increase in installed cost each year summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V 

### ; DF = discount factor in each year; STOCK V



### = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for which DOE calculated annual energy consump tion (vintages range from approximately two to approximately 50 years, dependi ng on the retirement function of the product); UOCS V 

### = annual per-unit savi ngs in operating cost; UTIC V 

### = annual total per-unit in crease in installed cost; V

= year in which the product was purchased as a new unit; and
y = year in the forecast (2016–2046).

DOE determined the PVC for each year from the effective date of the standard until 2046. DOE determined the PVS for each year from the effective date of the standard until the year when units purchased in 2046 retire. DOE calculated costs and savings as the difference between a standards case and case without new standards (base case).

DOE calculated a discount factor from the di scount rate (7.0%) and the number of years between the “present” (2009, the year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings.

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### 10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation
Listed below are the inputs to DOE’s calculation of the NPV of costs and savings for the Nation as a whole and the three areas evaluated separately.

• Total installed cost per unit,

• annual per-unit saving s in operation cost,

• shipments,

• equipment stock ( STOCK V



### ),

• total annual increases in installed cost ( TIC ),

• total annual operating cost ( OCS ),

• discount factor ( DF ),

• present value of costs ( PVC ), and

• present value of savings ( PVS ).

The total annual increase in installed cost is equal to the annual change in the total perunit installed cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the shipments forecasted for each candidate standards level. As with calculating energy savings, DOE did not use base-case shipments to calcula te total annual installed costs for all of the product classes. DOE assumed that consumers who forgo the purchase of a central air conditioner because of standards instead would purchase a room air conditioner, which will cost far less to purchase and operate. DOE used the projected shipments and stock for each candidate standard level to calculate costs. In the case of heat pumps, DOE assumed that any decrease in shipments caused by standards would result in the purchase of an electric furnace plus CAC. Thus the analysis tracked sales of electric furnaces and CACs that result from decreases in sales of heat pumps.

The annual operating cost includes energy , repair, and maintenance costs. The total annual savings in operating cost are equal to the change in the annual operating costs (difference between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments forecasted for each candidate standards level. As with calculating total annual installed costs, DOE did not necessarily use base-case shipments to calculate savings in operating cost.

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit
DOE described the total per-unit installed cost for each product class as a function of product efficiency in section 8.2.2 of Chapter 8, Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis. Because the total per-unit annual installed cost depends directly on efficiency, DOE used the shipments-weight efficiencies (SWEFs) for the base and standards cases presented in section 10.2, combined with the total installed cost pres ented in chapter 8, to estimate the shipmentsweighted total per-unit average annual installed cost under the ba se and standards cases. The following sections describe the shipments-weighted total per-unit average annual installed cost for all four product classes of centr al air conditioners and heat pumps.

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### Central Air Conditioners—Split System DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for split system CACs on data presented in sections 8.2.2 of chapter 8. The total installe d cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Based on th e relationship between CAC efficiency (SEER) and total installed cost presen ted in chapter 8, Tables 10.4.1 a nd 10.4.2 present the total per-unit installed cost for split system coil-only CACs based on the shipments-weighted energy factors (SWEFs) that correspond to the base case a nd each candidate standard level. Table 10.4.1 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of ne w standards) for new construction coil-only installations for the Nation and the three speci fic regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-ofcountry). Table 10.4.2 presents the same total per- unit installed cost data but for coil-only units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In both tabl es, per-unit total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual pe r-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit total in stalled costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.1 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction coil-only installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. Because SWEFs in the base case and each standards case were forecasted by DOE to increase over the forecast period, the corresponding total installed cost increases over time. As noted in earlier in section 10.2.1.2, DOE’s appr oach for forecasting standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of adoption of more e fficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the shipment-weighted average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. This is evident in Figure 10.4.1 as the gap in the shipme nt-weighted total insta lled cost between CSL 2 and the base case remains constant over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted total installed cost have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $2,943 $2,961 $3,024 $3,101 $3,192 $3,308 $3,459 $3,639

Hot-Humid $2,685 $2,702 $2,761 $2,835 $2,922 $3,032 $3,176 $3,348
Hot-Dry $3,395 $3,415 $3,485 $3,571 $3,674 $3,803 $3,972 $4,173 Rest-of-Country $2,905 $2,922 $2,982 $3,056 $3,145 $3,256 $3,402 $3,576

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### Table 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $2,718 $2,813 $2,895 $3,015 $3,116 $3,244 $3,395 $3,609

Hot-Humid $2,464 $2,554 $2,631 $2,746 $2,843 $2,965 $3,109 $3,313
Hot-Dry $3,138 $3,244 $3,335 $3,470 $3,583 $3,726 $3,895 $4,134 Rest-of-Country $2,699 $2,790 $2,869 $2,985 $3,082 $3,206 $3,352 $3,558

$2,900 $3,000 $3,100 $3,200 $3,300 $3,400 $3,500 $3,600 $3,700

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageTotal Installed Cost ($/unit)

Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.5 SER)



### Figure 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Insta lled Cost for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

Table 10.4.3 presents the base case and stan dards case shipment-weighted per-unit total installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction blower coil installa tions for the Nation and the thr ee specific regions (hot-humid,

10-46

### hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table 10.4.4 presents the same per-unit total in stalled cost data but for blower coil units installed as either replacem ents or for new owners. In both tables, per-unit total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit total in stalled costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.2 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction blower coil installations for the base case and th ree standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 9, and CSL 13)change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil-only units, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit total installed costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 13, the Max T ech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted pe r-unit total installed cost have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the st andard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.4.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $3,738 $3,753 $3,803 $3,859 $3,903 $3,950 $4,000 $4,053 $4,108 $4,241 $4,395 $4,565 $4,752 $4,956

Hot-Humid $3,413 $3,427 $3,475 $3,528 $3,570 $3,615 $3,663 $3,713 $3,766 $3,892 $4,039 $4,201 $4,379 $4,574 Hot-Dry $4,315 $4,332 $4,388 $4,451 $4,500 $4,553 $4,609 $4,668 $4,730 $4,879 $5,051 $5,241 $5,450 $5,679 Rest-of-Country $3,695 $3,709 $3,758 $3,811 $3,854 $3,899 $3,947 $3,998 $4,052 $4,179 $4,327 $4,491 $4,671 $4,868



### Table 10.4.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $4,422 $4,436 $4,482 $4,533 $4,574 $4,617 $4,663 $4,711 $4,763 $4,885 $5,026 $5,182 $5,354 $5,542

Hot-Humid $3,921 $3,935 $3,979 $4,028 $4,066 $4,107 $4,151 $4,198 $4,246 $4,363 $4,497 $4,647 $4,810 $4,990 Hot-Dry $5,119 $5,135 $5,186 $5,244 $5,289 $5,338 $5,389 $5,443 $5,500 $5,637 $5,795 $5,970 $6,162 $6,373 Rest-of-Country $4,423 $4,436 $4,480 $4,530 $4,569 $4,611 $4,655 $4,702 $4,751 $4,869 $5,005 $5,157 $5,322 $5,504

10-47$3,700 $3,800 $3,900 $4,000 $4,100 $4,200 $4,300 $4,400 $4,500 $4,600 $4,700 $4,800 $4,900 $5,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageTotal Installed Cost ($/unit) Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 9 (18 SEER) CSL 13 (22 SEER)



### Figure 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period



### Central Air Conditio ners—Single Package DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for single package central air conditioners (CACs) on data presented in sections 8.2.2 of chap ter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using th e relationship between CAC efficiency (SEER) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.5 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construc tion installations for the Nation and the three specific regions ( hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table 10.4.6 presents the same total per-unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In both tables, per-un it total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit tota l installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit total in stalled costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.3 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. For

10-48

### the same reasons given above for split system CA Cs, the gap in the shipment-weighted per-unit total installed costs between CSL 2 and the base case are maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit total in stalled cost have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.4.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $3,141 $3,244 $3,333 $3,463 $3,573 $3,712 $3,877 $4,109

Hot-Humid $2,877 $2,975 $3,059 $3,184 $3,289 $3,421 $3,578 $3,799
Hot-Dry $3,629 $3,744 $3,843 $3,989 $4,112 $4,268 $4,452 $4,712 Rest-of-Country $3,103 $3,201 $3,287 $3,413 $3,519 $3,653 $3,811 $4,035



### Table 10.4.6 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $2,718 $2,813 $2,895 $3,015 $3,116 $3,244 $3,395 $3,609

Hot-Humid $2,464 $2,554 $2,631 $2,746 $2,843 $2,965 $3,109 $3,313
Hot-Dry $3,138 $3,244 $3,335 $3,470 $3,583 $3,726 $3,895 $4,134 Rest-of-Country $2,699 $2,790 $2,869 $2,985 $3,082 $3,206 $3,352 $3,558

10-493100 3200 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageTotal Installed Cost ($/unit)

Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.6 SER)



### Figure 10.4.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period



### Heat Pumps—Split System DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for split system heat pumps (HPs) on data presented in sections 8.2.2 of chapter 8. The tota l installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE base d average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between HP efficiency (SEER/HSPF) and total installed co st presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.7 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted total per-un it installed costs in th e year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction installati ons for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-o f-country). Table 10.4.8 presents the same total per-unit installed cost data but fo r units installed as either repla cements or for new owners. In both tables, per-unit total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corre sponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit total in stalled costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.4 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction installations for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 7, and CSL 10) change

10-50

### over time. For the same reasons given above fo r split system CACs, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit total installed costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 10, the Max T ech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted pe r-unit total installed cost have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the st andard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.4.7 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SWEF (SEER) 13.77 13.89 14.28 14.70 15.14 15. 59 16.06 17.03 18.02 19.01 20.00 SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8. 49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $4,051 $4,063 $4,127 $4,184 $4,245 $4,316 $4,410 $4,577 $4,759 $4,957 $5,065

Hot-Humid $3,746 $3,758 $3,819 $3,873 $3,93 1 $3,998 $4,088 $4,247 $4,421 $4,610 $4,713
Hot-Dry $4,657 $4,671 $4,742 $4,806 $4,874 $4,953 $5,059 $5,245 $5,449 $5,670 $5,791 Rest-of-Country $3,986 $3,998 $4,059 $4,114 $4, 172 $4,241 $4,332 $4,492 $4,668 $4,859 $4,963



### Table 10.4.8 Split System Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SWEF (SEER) 13.77 13.89 14.28 14.70 15.14 15. 59 16.06 17.03 18.02 19.01 20.00 SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8. 49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $3,492 $3,503 $3,562 $3,614 $3,670 $3,735 $3,822 $3,976 $4,143 $4,326 $4,425

Hot-Humid $3,203 $3,213 $3,270 $3,319 $3,37 2 $3,435 $3,517 $3,664 $3,824 $3,997 $4,092
Hot-Dry $4,024 $4,036 $4,102 $4,160 $4,223 $4,296 $4,393 $4,565 $4,752 $4,957 $5,067 Rest-of-Country $3,452 $3,463 $3,520 $3,570 $3, 624 $3,687 $3,771 $3,919 $4,080 $4,256 $4,352

10-514000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageTotal Installed Cost ($/unit)

Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (17 SEER) CSL 10 (19.5 SEER)



### Figure 10.4.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period



### Heat Pumps—Single Package DOE based its total per-unit installed cost fo r single package heat pumps (HPs) on data presented in sections 8.2.2 of chapter 8. The tota l installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE base d average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between HP efficiency (SEER/HSPF) and total installed co st presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.9 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted total per-un it installed costs in th e year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction installati ons for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-o f-country). Table 10.4.10 presents the same total per-unit installed cost data but fo r units installed as either repla cements or for new owners. In both tables, per-unit total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corre sponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit total in stalled costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.5 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. For

10-52

### the same reasons given above for split system CA Cs, the gap in the shipment-weighted per-unit total installed costs between CSL 2 and the base case are maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit total in stalled cost have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.4.9 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost s for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $3,646 $3,691 $3,784 $3,936 $4,078 $4,245 $4,444 $4,642

Hot-Humid $3,408 $3,450 $3,539 $3,684 $3,819 $3,979 $4,168 $4,357 Hot-Dry $4,185 $4,235 $4,339 $4,510 $4,668 $4,855 $5,076 $5,298 Rest-of-Country $3,575 $3,618 $3,708 $3,855 $3,991 $4,152 $4,343 $4,534



### Table 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00

Total Installed Cost Region

Nation $3,120 $3,161 $3,247 $3,387 $3,517 $3,671 $3,853 $4,036

Hot-Humid $2,895 $2,935 $3,017 $3,150 $3,274 $3,421 $3,595 $3,769 Hot-Dry $3,589 $3,635 $3,731 $3,888 $4,033 $4,206 $4,410 $4,614 Rest-of-Country $3,071 $3,110 $3,193 $3,328 $3,454 $3,602 $3,778 $3,954

10-533600 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageTotal Installed Cost ($/unit)

Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.4 SER)



### Figure 10.4.5 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost per Unit
The per-unit annual operating cost includes costs for energy, repair, and maintenance. DOE calculated the annual savings in cost per unit for the nation as a whole and for the three regions that were evaluated separately.



### Annual Energy Costs DOE determined the per-unit a nnual savings in energy costs by multiplying the per-unit annual savings in energy consumption developed for each produc t class by the appropriate energy price.

For both classes of both CACs and HPs, estimates of the per-unit annual energy consumption for the base case and each sta ndards case were presented in section 10.3.2.1. As described previously, DOE forecasted the per-unit annual energy consumption for the base case and each standards case for all product classes by applying a growth trend in efficiency.

10-54

### Energy prices are described in section 8.2.3.1 of chapter 8. DOE forecasted energy prices based on EIA’s AEO2009 . Trends in energy prices are desc ribed in section 8.2.3.2 of chapter 8.



### Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs DOE described the total per-unit repair and maintenance costs for each product class as a function of product efficiency in sections 8.2.3.3 and 8.2.3.4 of Chapter 8, Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis. Because the per-unit re pair and maintenance co sts depend directly on efficiency, DOE used the shipments-weight effi ciencies (SWEFs) for the base and standards cases presented in section 10.2, combined with th e repair and maintenanc e costs presented in chapter 8, to estimate the shipments-weighted per-unit average repair and maintenance costs under the base and standards cases.

Based on the relationship between CAC effici ency (SEER) and repair and maintenance costs presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.11 presents the base case and standards case shipmentweighted per-unit repair and ma intenance costs for coil-only inst allations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hothumid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations as well as new c onstruction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit repair and maintenance costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.6 demonstrates how the costs for coil-only installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. Because SWEFs in the base case and each standards case were fo recasted by DOE to increase over the forecast period, the corresponding repair a nd maintenance costs increase ove r time. As noted in earlier in section 10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach for forecasting sta ndards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the st andards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the shipment-weighted average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the change in repair and maintenance costs (as a function of efficiency) mirrors the change in total installed costs, the repair and maintenance cost diffe rence between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period also remains constant. This is ev ident in Figure 10.4.6 as the gap in the shipmentweighted repair and maintenan ce costs between CSL 2 and the base case remains constant over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted repair and maintenanc e costs have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

10-55

### Table 10.4.11 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50

Repair and Maint. Cost Region

Nation $152 $153 $157 $162 $168 $176 $186 $198

Hot-Humid $122 $123 $127 $131 $136 $142 $150 $160
Hot-Dry $173 $174 $179 $185 $192 $200 $212 $225 Rest-of-Country $159 $160 $165 $170 $176 $184 $195 $207

$150 $155 $160 $165 $170 $175 $180 $185 $190 $195 $200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit)

Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.5 SER)



### Figure 10.4.6 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

Table 10.4.12 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs for split system CAC blower coil inst allations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hothumid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for

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### both residential and commercial installations as well as new c onstruction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit total in stalled costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.7 demonstrates how th e repair and maintenance costs for blower coil installations for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 9, and CSL 13) change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil-only units, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 13, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.4.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00

Repair and Maint. Cost Region

Nation $160 $161 $164 $167 $169 $172 $175 $177 $180 $188 $196 $205 $216 $227

Hot-Humid $129 $130 $132 $134 $136 $138 $141 $143 $145 $151 $158 $166 $174 $183 Hot-Dry $182 $183 $186 $190 $192 $195 $198 $202 $205 $213 $223 $233 $245 $258 Rest-of-Country $168 $169 $172 $175 $177 $180 $183 $186 $189 $197 $205 $215 $226 $237

10-57$160 $170 $180 $190 $200 $210 $220 $230

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit) Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 9 (18 SEER) CSL 13 (22 SEER)



### Figure 10.4.7 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

Table 10.4.13 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs for single package CAC installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hotdry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations as we ll as new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corre sponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit total in stalled costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.8 demonstrates how th e repair and maintenance costs for blower coil installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system CACs, the gap in the shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit repa ir and maintenance cost s have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the st andard is assumed to become effective (2016).

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### Table 10.4.13 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average perUnit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60

Repair and Maint. Cost Region

Nation $147 $154 $159 $167 $173 $182 $191 $205

Hot-Humid $119 $124 $128 $134 $140 $146 $154 $165
Hot-Dry $168 $175 $181 $190 $197 $206 $218 $233 Rest-of-Country $154 $161 $166 $175 $181 $190 $200 $215

140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit)

Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.6 SER)



### Figure 10.4.8 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

Table 10.4.14 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs fo r split system HP installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hotdry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations as we ll as new construction and replacement/new owner

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### installations. In each table, the SWEF corre sponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit total in stalled costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.9 demonstrates how th e repair and maintenance costs for blower coil installations for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 7, and CSL 10) change over time. For the same reasons given above fo r split system CACs, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 10, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016).

Table 10.4.14 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Wei ghted Average per- Unit Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SWEF (SEER) 13.77 13.89 14.28 14.70 15.14 15. 59 16.06 17.03 18.02 19.01 20.00 SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8. 49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30

Repair and Maint. Cost Region

Nation $153 $153 $156 $159 $162 $165 $169 $177 $185 $194 $199

Hot-Humid $123 $124 $126 $128 $130 $133 $136 $142 $149 $157 $160
Hot-Dry $174 $174 $178 $181 $184 $187 $192 $201 $210 $221 $226 Rest-of-Country $160 $161 $164 $166 $169 $173 $177 $185 $194 $203 $209

10-60150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit)

Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (17 SEER) CSL 10 (19.5 SEER)



### Figure 10.4.9 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Co sts for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

Table 10.4.15 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs for single package HP installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hotdry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations as we ll as new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corre sponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-w eighted annual per-unit total in stalled costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.10 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower coil installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system CACs, the gap in the shipment-weighted perunit repair and maintenance costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit repa ir and maintenance cost s have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the st andard is assumed to become effective (2016).

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### Table 10.4.15 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment- Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00

Repair and Maint. Cost Region

Nation $151 $153 $158 $165 $172 $181 $190 $200

Hot-Humid $122 $124 $128 $134 $139 $146 $154 $162 Hot-Dry $172 $174 $179 $188 $196 $205 $216 $227 Rest-of-Country $158 $161 $165 $173 $180 $189 $199 $209

150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearShipment-Weighted AverageAnnual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit)

Base Case CSL 2 (14 SEER) CSL 7 (16.4 SER)



### Figure 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period

10.4.2.3 Shipments including Equipment Switching
DOE forecasted shipments for the base case and all standards cases for the Nation as a

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### whole and for the three climate regions that we re evaluated separately (the hot-humid region, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). An extens ive description of the methodology for conducting and generating the shipments foreca sts for all four of the product cl ass is presented in Chapter 9, Shipments Analysis.

In projecting standards case shipments, DOE analyzed the combined effects of increased total installed costs (purchase price plus insta llation costs), operating cost savings, and household income on consumer replacement and new owner purchase decisions. DOE determined that increased total installed cost is the most significant effect and impacts consumer replacement and new owner purchase decisions. As described in section 9.4 of chapter 9, DOE treated the impact of total installed cost increases on standards ca se shipments differently for the new construction, replacement, and new owner markets.

As described earlier in section 10.3.2.2, for ne w construction purchases of split system and single package CACs and HPs, DOE assumed consumers were unaffected by an increase in total installed cost. In other words, DO E assumed new construc tion shipments under any standards case equaled new construction shipme nts under the base case. For replacement purchases of split system and single package CACs and HPs, DOE assumed consumers affected by an increase in total installed cost would repair their equipment rather than replace it, extending the life of the product by six years. For new owner purchases of split system and single package CACs, DOE assumed consumers affect ed by an increase in total installed cost would switch equipment and purchase a room air conditioner rather than a CAC. For new owner purchases of split system and single package HPs, DOE assumed that consumers affected by an increase in total installed cost would switch equipment and purchase a combination electric resistance furnace and CAC rather than a HP.

Table 10.4.16 presents the per-unit total insta lled costs of the alternative coil-only split system CAC and electric furnace combination to replace split system HPs. Per-unit costs are the same for residential and commercial installations.

Table 10.4.16 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs of Alternative Combination Coil-Only Split System Central Air Conditioner and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Region Base Case Split Heat Pump Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Nation $3,188 $3,205 $3,262 $3,333 $3,417 $3,524 $3,663 $3,828 $3,828 $3,828 $3,828

Hot-Humid $2,946 $2,961 $3,016 $3,084 $3,16 4 $3,265 $3,398 $3,556 $3,556 $3,556 $3,556
Hot-Dry $3,583 $3,602 $3,666 $3,745 $3,839 $3,958 $4,114 $4,299 $4,299 $4,299 $4,299
Rest-of-Country $3,173 $3,189 $3,244 $3,313 $3, 394 $3,497 $3,630 $3,790 $3,790 $3,790 $3,790

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### Table 10.4.17 presents the per-unit total installe d costs of the alternative single package CAC and electric furnace combination to replace single package HPs. Per-unit costs are the same for residential and commercial installations.

Table 10.4.17 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs of Alternative Combination Single Package Central Air Conditioner and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Region Base Case Single Package Candidate Standard Level
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Nation $3,359 $3,454 $3,535 $3,656 $3,757 $3,885 $4,036 $4,249

Hot-Humid $3,104 $3,194 $3,272 $3,387 $3,483 $3,605 $3,749 $3,953 Hot-Dry $3,779 $3,885 $3,976 $4,111 $4,224 $4,367 $4,536 $4,775 Rest-of-Country $3,340 $3,431 $3,510 $3,626 $3,723 $3,847 $3,992 $4,199



### 10.4.2.4 Equipment Stock
The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual ship ments and the lifetime of a given product class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each year. The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the given year. DOE assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function. Refer to the specific section for each product cl ass in Chapter 9, Shipments Analysis, for further details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis.

10.4.2.5 Increases in Total Annual Installed Cost

The increase in total annual installed cost for a product under any given standards case is the product of the increase in total installed cost per unit attributable to the standard and the number of units of each vintage. This method acc ounts for differences in total installed cost from year to year. The equation for determining the total annual installed cost increase for a given candidate standards level, presented in section 10.4.1 is repeated here.

TIC = 

# ∑ STOCK V 

### × UTIC V



### As noted earlier, when considering heat pumps DOE accounted for the total installed cost for those consumers who decided to switch from a heat pump to an electric furnace plus CAC because standards increased the cost of new units. Therefore, the total annual increase in installed cost accounts for the tota l installed cost of CACs purchas ed in lieu of new heat pumps.

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### 10.4.2.6 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost
The savings in total annual ope rating cost for any given candi date standards level is the product of the annual per-unit sa vings in operating cost attribut able to the standard and the number of units of each vintage. This method acc ounts for the year-to-year differences in annual operating cost savings. The equa tion for determining the total annual savings in operating cost for a given candidate standards level, which was presented in section 10.4.1, is repeated here.

OCS = 

# ∑ STOCK V 

### × UOCS V



### As noted earlier, when considering heat pumps DOE accounted for the energy use of those consumers who decided to switch from a heat pump to an electric furnace and CAC in response to standards. Therefore, the total a nnual savings in operating cost accounts for the energy costs of the CACs purchased in lieu of heat pumps.

10.4.2.7 Discount Factors
DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

1 DF =

_ ( y yp ) 

### ( 1+ r )



### Where:

r = discount rate,
y = year of the monetary value, and
y P 

### = year in which the present value is being determined.

Although DOE used consumer discount rate s to determine the life-cycle cost of refrigeration products (chapter 8), it used nationa l discount rates to calc ulate national NPV. DOE estimated NPV using both a 3-percent and a 7-percen t real discount rate, in accordance with the Office of Management and Budget’s guidance to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis, particularly section E therein: Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs

. 3 

### DOE defined the present year as 2009.

10.4.2.8 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost
The present value of increased installed cost is the difference between installation cost in each standards case and the base case discount ed to the present and summed throughout the period over which DOE is considering the installation of units (from the effective date of standards, 2016, to 2046).

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### The increase in total installed cost refers to both the purchase price and installation cost associated with the more expensive units purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated annual increases in installed cost as the difference in total installed cost for new equipment purchased each year, multiplied by the shipments in the standards case.

10.4.2.9 Present Value of Savings
The present value of annual savings in operating cost is the difference between the base case and each standards case discounted to the present and summed throughout the period from the effective date, 2016, to the time when the last unit installed in 2046 is retired from service.

Savings represent decreases in operating co st (including electricity, repair, and maintenance) associated with the more energy efficient equipment purchased in each standards case compared to the base case. Total annual sa vings in operating cost are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that survive in a particular year. For units purchased in 2046, energy consumption continues until the unit is retired from service.

10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATIONS
The National Impacts Analysis (NIA) model estimates the national energy savings (NES), the regional energy savi ngs (RES), and the net present value (NPV) attributable to each candidate standards level. DOE generated the NES, RES, and NPV results using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet at: ( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/applianc e_standards/residen tial/central_ac_hp.html ). Details and instructions for using the sp readsheet are provided in appendix 10-A.

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs
Table 10.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA model. The inputs were discussed in sections 10.3.2 (inputs for NES and RES) and 10. 4.2 (inputs for the national and regional NPV). A brief description of the data source or each input also is provided in Table 10.5.1.

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### Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculations Input Data Description Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model (chapter 9). Effective date of standard 2016. Forecasted efficiencies for base

case SWEF* determined in the year 2016 for each product class. Growth trend applied to SWEF throughout forecast period, 2016–2046 (section 10.2). Efficiencies for standards case Growth trends applied to determine SWEF for each standards case and each product class for 2016–2046 (section 10.2). Annual energy consumption per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEF (section 10.3.2.1).

Total installed cost per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEF (section 10.4.2.1). Energy cost per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of annual energy consumption per unit and energy prices. (See section 8.2.3.1 of chapter 8 for energy prices.) Repair and maintenance costs per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEF (section 10.4.2.3).

Increase in energy prices EIA AEO 2009 forecasts (to 2030) and extrapolation to 2046. (See section 8.2.3.2 of chapter 8.) Energy site-to-source conversion Conversion factor, which changes yearly, is generated by DOE/EIA’s NEMS † program as a time-series factor that includes electric generation, transmission, and distribution losses. Discount rate Seven percent real. Present year Future expenses are discounted to 2009.

* SWEF = shipments-weighted energy factor (efficiency). † NEMS = National Energy Modeling System. Chapter 13 , Utility Impact Analysis, and the Environmental

Assessment Report [Give reference]provide more detail on NEMS.



### 10.5.2 National and Regional Energy Savings
The following sections provide the nationa l energy savings (NES) and regional energy savings (RES) that DOE calculated for each of the candidate standard levels (CSLs) analyzed for all four product classes of central air conditioners and heat pumps. Results, which are cumulative to 2046, are shown as primary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, producing results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as is generated by the life-cycle cost and payback period analyses.

10.5.2.1 Central Air Conditioners
This section provides NES and RES results fo r the efficiency levels considered for the two product classes of centra l air conditioners (split system and single package).



### Central Air Conditioners—Split System Tables 10.5.2 through 10.5.4 show the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for split system CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Table 10.5.2 shows the results for the residential sector only, Table 10.5.3 shows the resu lts for the commercial sector only, and Table 10.5.4 shows the results for both sectors. Each table shows the breakdown of energy savings for

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### coil-only units and blower coil units. Figure 10.5. 1 depicts the total national and regional energy savings for each CSL.

Table 10.5.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for th e Residential Sector (quads)

CSL SEER Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country

Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil
1 13.5 0.19 0.17 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00
2 14.0 0.77 0.71 0.07 0.35 0.32 0.03 0.12 0.11 0.01 0.22 0.20 0.02
3 14.5 1.36 1.24 0.12 0.62 0.56 0.05 0.22 0.20 0.02 0.38 0.35 0.03
4 15.0 1.94 1.77 0.17 0.88 0.80 0.08 0.31 0.28 0.03 0.55 0.50 0.05
5 15.5 2.51 2.29 0.22 1.14 1.04 0.10 0.40 0.37 0.03 0.71 0.65 0.06
6 16.0 3.03 2.77 0.26 1.37 1.26 0.12 0.49 0.44 0.04 0.86 0.78 0.07
7 16.5 3.30 2.99 0.31 1.50 1.36 0.14 0.53 0.48 0.05 0.93 0.85 0.09
8 17.0 3.35 0.36 1.52 0.16 0.54 0.06 0.94 0.10
9 18.0 3.45 0.45 1.56 0.20 0.55 0.07 0.97 0.13
10 19.0 3.54 0.55 1.60 0.25 0.57 0.09 1.00 0.15
11 20.0 3.63 0.63 1.64 0.29 0.58 0.10 1.02 0.18
12 21.0 3.70 0.71 1.68 0.32 0.59 0.11 1.04 0.20
13 22.0 3.74 0.75 1.70 0.34 0.60 0.12 1.05 0.21

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES. ** Total NES for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER.

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### Table 10.5.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Nation al and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (quads)

CSL SEER Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country

Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil
1 13.5 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 14.0 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00
3 14.5 0.09 0.09 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00
4 15.0 0.14 0.13 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00
5 15.5 0.18 0.16 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.01
6 16.0 0.20 0.18 0.01 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.09 0.08 0.01
7 16.5 0.20 0.19 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.08 0.01
8 17.0 0.21 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.01
9 18.0 0.21 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.01
10 19.0 0.21 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.01
11 20.0 0.21 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.01
12 21.0 0.22 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.01
13 22.0 0.22 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.01

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES. ** Total NES for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER.



### Table 10.5.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Nation al and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Re sidential and Commercial Sectors (quads)

CSL SEER Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country

Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil
1 13.5 0.20 0.18 0.02 0.09 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.00
2 14.0 0.82 0.75 0.07 0.37 0.34 0.03 0.13 0.12 0.01 0.24 0.22 0.02
3 14.5 1.46 1.33 0.12 0.65 0.59 0.06 0.24 0.22 0.02 0.43 0.39 0.04
4 15.0 2.08 1.90 0.18 0.93 0.85 0.08 0.34 0.31 0.03 0.61 0.56 0.05
5 15.5 2.69 2.46 0.23 1.20 1.10 0.10 0.44 0.40 0.04 0.79 0.72 0.07
6 16.0 3.23 2.95 0.28 1.44 1.32 0.12 0.52 0.48 0.04 0.95 0.87 0.08
7 16.5 3.51 3.18 0.33 1.57 1.43 0.15 0.57 0.52 0.05 1.02 0.93 0.09
8 17.0 3.56 0.37 1.59 0.17 0.57 0.06 1.04 0.11
9 18.0 3.65 0.47 1.64 0.21 0.59 0.08 1.06 0.13
10 19.0 3.75 0.57 1.68 0.25 0.61 0.09 1.09 0.16
11 20.0 3.84 0.66 1.72 0.30 0.62 0.11 1.12 0.19
12 21.0 3.92 0.74 1.76 0.33 0.63 0.12 1.14 0.21
13 22.0 3.96 0.78 1.78 0.35 0.64 0.12 1.15 0.22

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES. ** Total NES for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER.

10-690.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Candidate Standard LevelNational or Regional Energy Savings (quads) Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Nation al and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)



### Central Air Conditio ners—Single Package Table 10.5.5 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for single package CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation) . Total energy savings in Table 10.5.5 are also broken down by sector (i.e., resi dential and comme rcial). Figure 10.5.2 depi cts the total national and regional energy savings for each CSL.

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### Table 10.5.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners : Cumulative Nation al and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

CSL SEER Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country
Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm.
1 13.5 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00
2 14.0 0.15 0.14 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00
3 14.5 0.24 0.22 0.02 0.11 0.11 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.07 0.06 0.01
4 15.0 0.30 0.28 0.02 0.14 0.13 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.09 0.08 0.01
5 15.5 0.36 0.34 0.02 0.17 0.16 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.11 0.10 0.01
6 16.0 0.41 0.39 0.02 0.19 0.18 0.01 0.07 0.06 0.00 0.12 0.11 0.01
7 16.6 0.43 0.41 0.03 0.20 0.19 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.13 0.12 0.01

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES.

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Candidate Standard LevelNational or Regional Energy Savings (quads) Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.2 Single Package Central Air Conditi oners: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

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### 10.5.2.2 Heat Pumps
This section provides NES and RES results fo r the efficiency levels considered for the two product classes of heat pumps (split system and single package).



### Heat Pumps—Split System Table 10.5.6 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for split system HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Tota l energy savings in Table 10.5.6 are also broken down by sector (i.e., residentia l and commercial). Figure 10.5.3 depicts the total national and regional energy savings for each CSL.

Table 10.5.6 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulati ve National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

CSL SEER HSPF Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country
Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm.
1 13.5 7.85 0.11 0.10 0.00 0.07 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00
2 14.0 8.00 0.56 0.54 0.02 0.34 0.33 0.01 0.07 0.06 0.00 0.15 0.14 0.01
3 14.5 8.15 1.03 1.00 0.03 0.63 0.61 0.02 0.12 0.11 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.01
4 15.0 8.30 1.53 1.48 0.05 0.93 0.90 0.03 0.18 0.17 0.01 0.42 0.40 0.02
5 15.5 8.45 2.09 2.03 0.06 1.26 1.23 0.03 0.24 0.23 0.01 0.58 0.56 0.02
6 16.0 8.60 2.78 2.71 0.07 1.66 1.62 0.04 0.31 0.30 0.01 0.79 0.77 0.02
7 17.0 9.10 3.93 3.84 0.09 2.94 2.28 0.05 0.44 0.42 0.01 1.15 1.12 0.03
8 18.0 9.60 4.98 4.88 0.10 3.36 2.88 0.06 0.55 0.54 0.01 1.47 1.44 0.03
9 19.0 10.10 5.68 5.57 0.11 3.41 3.29 0.06 0.63 0.61 0.02 1.68 1.65 0.03
10 19.5 10.30 5.78 5.67 0.11 2.94 3.35 0.06 0.64 0.62 0.02 1.71 1.68 0.03

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES.

10-720.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Candidate Standard LevelNational or Regional Energy Savings (quads) Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.3 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulati ve National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)



### Heat Pumps—Single Package Table 10.5.7 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for single package HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation) . Total energy savings in Table 10.5.7 are also broken down by sector (i.e., resi dential and comme rcial). Figure 10.5.4 depi cts the total national and regional energy savings for each CSL.

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### Table 10.5.7 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumula tive National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

CSL SEER HSPF Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country
Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm.
1 13.5 7.85 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00
2 14.0 8.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00
3 14.5 8.00 0.19 0.19 0.01 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00
4 15.0 8.00 0.28 0.27 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.00
5 15.5 8.50 0.36 0.35 0.01 0.22 0.21 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00
6 16.0 9.00 0.41 0.40 0.01 0.25 0.24 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00
7 16.4 9.00 0.43 0.41 0.01 0.26 0.25 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES.

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Candidate Standard LevelNational or Regional Energy Savings (quads) Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.4 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumula tive National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)

10.5.3 Calculating Annual Cost and Savings
To illustrate the basic inputs to the calculati ons of net present value (NPV) of costs and savings attributable to proposed standards for central air conditioners and heat pumps, Figure 10.5.5 shows the non-discounted annual increases in installed cost and annual savings in

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### operating cost at the national level for CSL 2 for split system coil-only CACs. The figure also shows net savings, which is the difference between the savings and costs for each year. The annual total installed cost is the increase in the total installed cost for products purchased each year for 2016–2046. The annual savings in operating cost applies to products that are operating in each year. The NPV is the difference betwee n the cumulative annual discounted savings and the cumulative annual discounted cost. DOE coul d create figures like the one below for every standards case for all four product classes of CACs and heat pumps.

-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064 2068 2072 2076 2080

YearBillion of 2008 Dollars Total Installed Cost Increase Operating Cost Savings Net Savings



### Figure 10.5.5 Non-Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in Operating Cost for Split System Coil-Only Central Air Conditioners, Candidate Standard Level 2

10.5.4 Net Present Values
The following sections provide results of ca lculating the net present value (NPV) for each candidate standard level considered for the four product classes of cent ral air conditioners and heat pumps (split systems and packaged systems). Results were calculated for the nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Results, whic h are cumulative, are shown as the discounted dollar value of the savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as produced by the life-cycle cost and payback period analyses.

The present value of increased total installed cost is the total annual increase (the difference between the standards case and base case) discounted to the present and summed

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### throughout the period for which DOE evaluates the ef fect of standards (from the effective date of standards, 2016, to 2046).

Savings derive from decreases in operating costs related to the energy consumption associated with the higher energy efficiency of equipment purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total savings in operating costs are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage (i.e., the year of manufacture) that survive in a particular year. Equipment consumes energy and must be maintained throughout its lifetime. For units purchased through 2046, the operating cost includes energy consumed until the last unit is retired from service.

10.5.4.1 Central Air Conditioners
The following sections provide the results of calculating net pres ent value (NPV) based on a discount rate of seven percent for the candida te standard levels DOE analyzed for the two product classes of central air conditioners, sp lit system and single package. Results are cumulative to 2046.



### Central Air Conditioners—Split System Tables 10.5.8 through 10.5.10 show the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for split system CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Table 10.5.8 shows the results for the residential sector only, Tabl e 10.5.9shows the results for the commercial sector only, and Table 10.5.10 shows the results for both s ectors. Each table shows the breakdown of the NPV for coil-only units and blower coil units . Figure 10.5.6 depicts the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL.

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### Table 10.5.8 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulati ve National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (3% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)

Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil
1 13.5 -0.65 -0.65 0.00 0.10 0.08 0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.01 -0.86 -0.81 -0.05
2 14.0 -3.65 -3.63 -0.01 0.19 0.09 0.10 -0.23 -0.27 0.04 -4.07 -3.87 -0.20
3 14.5 -8.33 -8.29 -0.04 -0.18 -0.34 0.16 -0.79 -0.86 0.07 -8.16 -7.80 -0.36
4 15.0 -15.13 -15.04 -0.09 -1.11 -1.33 0. 22 -1.79 -1.88 0.09 -13.32 -12.78 -0.54
5 15.5 -24.15 -23.95 -0.20 -2.67 -2.94 0. 27 -3.24 -3.35 0.10 -19.55 -18.82 -0.74
6 16.0 -34.13 -33.78 -0.35 -4.61 -4.91 0. 30 -4.94 -5.04 0.10 -26.06 -25.10 -0.96
7 16.5 -39.83 -39.27 -0.57 -5.78 -6.09 0. 31 -5.91 -6.00 0.09 -29.70 -28.49 -1.21
8 17.0 -40.10 -0.84 -5.78 0.31 -5.93 0.06 -29.97 -1.48
9 18.0 -40.86 -1.59 -5.84 0.25 -6.02 -0.03 -30.64 -2.15
10 19.0 -41.91 -2.64 -5.98 0.11 -6.18 -0.18 -31.45 -2.96
11 20.0 -43.25 -3.98 -6.21 -0.12 -6.39 -0.39 -32.40 -3.91
12 21.0 -44.77 -5.50 -6.50 -0.41 -6.65 -0.65 -33.41 -4.92
13 22.0 -45.56 -6.30 -6.67 -0.57 -6.79 -0.79 -33.91 -5.42

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. ** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER.



### Table 10.5.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulati ve National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (3% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)

Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil
1 13.5 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 0.00
2 14.0 -0.49 -0.47 -0.02 -0.09 -0.09 0.00 -0.14 -0.14 -0.01 -0.28 -0.27 -0.01
3 14.5 -0.99 -0.96 -0.03 -0.19 -0.19 0.00 -0.28 -0.27 -0.01 -0.55 -0.53 -0.02
4 15.0 -1.73 -1.68 -0.06 -0.37 -0.36 -0. 01 -0.47 -0.45 -0.02 -0.95 -0.92 -0.03
5 15.5 -2.73 -2.64 -0.09 -0.62 -0.60 -0. 01 -0.70 -0.67 -0.03 -1.49 -1.43 -0.05
6 16.0 -3.89 -3.76 -0.14 -0.92 -0.90 -0. 02 -0.96 -0.92 -0.04 -2.10 -2.02 -0.08
7 16.5 -4.60 -4.40 -0.20 -1.11 -1.07 -0. 04 -1.10 -1.05 -0.05 -2.48 -2.37 -0.11
8 17.0 -4.66 -0.26 -1.13 -0.06 -1.12 -0.07 -2.51 -0.15
9 18.0 -4.81 -0.40 -1.17 -0.09 -1.15 -0.10 -2.59 -0.23
10 19.0 -4.98 -0.57 -1.21 -0.14 -1.19 -0.14 -2.69 -0.32
11 20.0 -5.17 -0.76 -1.26 -0.18 -1.23 -0.18 -2.79 -0.42
12 21.0 -5.36 -0.96 -1.31 -0.24 -1.27 -0.22 -2.90 -0.53
13 22.0 -5.46 -1.05 -1.33 -0.26 -1.29 -0.24 -2.95 -0.58

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. ** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER.

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### Table 10.5.10 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulati ve National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential and Commercial Sectors (3% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)

Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil
1 13.5 -0.76 -0.76 0.00 0.08 0.06 0.02 -0.04 -0.05 0.01 -0.93 -0.88 -0.05
2 14.0 -4.14 -4.11 -0.03 0.10 0.00 0.10 -0.37 -0.41 0.03 -4.35 -4.14 -0.21
3 14.5 -9.32 -9.25 -0.07 -0.37 -0.53 0.16 -1.07 -1.13 0.06 -8.71 -8.33 -0.38
4 15.0 -16.86 -16.71 -0.15 -1.48 -1.69 0. 22 -2.25 -2.33 0.07 -14.27 -13.70 -0.57
5 15.5 -26.88 -26.59 -0.29 -3.28 -3.54 0. 26 -3.95 -4.02 0.07 -21.04 -20.25 -0.79
6 16.0 -38.02 -37.53 -0.49 -5.54 -5.81 0. 27 -5.89 -5.95 0.06 -28.16 -27.13 -1.04
7 16.5 -44.43 -43.67 -0.76 -6.89 -7.17 0. 27 -7.01 -7.05 0.04 -32.18 -30.86 -1.32
8 17.0 -44.77 -1.09 -6.91 0.25 -7.05 0.00 -32.48 -1.63
9 18.0 -45.67 -1.99 -7.01 0.16 -7.17 -0.12 -33.23 -2.37
10 19.0 -46.89 -3.22 -7.19 -0.03 -7.36 -0.31 -34.14 -3.28
11 20.0 -48.41 -4.74 -7.47 -0.30 -7.62 -0.57 -35.19 -4.33
12 21.0 -50.13 -6.46 -7.81 -0.64 -7.92 -0.87 -36.30 -5.44
13 22.0 -51.02 -7.35 -8.00 -0.83 -8.08 -1.03 -36.86 -6.00

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. ** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER.

10-78-50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10

-5 0 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Candidate Standard LevelNational and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.6 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Nation al and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)

Tables 10.5.11 through 10.5.13 show the NPVs at a seven percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for split system CACs for th e Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Table 10.5.11 shows the results for the residential sector only, Table 10.5.12 shows the results for the commercial sector only, and Table 10.5.13 shows the results for both sectors. Each table shows the breakdown of the NPV for coil-only units a nd blower coil units. Figure 10.5.7 depicts the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL.

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### Table 10.5.11 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulati ve National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (7% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)

Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil
1 13.5 -0.37 -0.36 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 0.00 -0.39 -0.36 -0.02
2 14.0 -1.95 -1.88 -0.07 -0.11 -0.13 0.02 -0.20 -0.20 0.00 -1.81 -1.71 -0.10
3 14.5 -4.26 -4.13 -0.12 -0.42 -0.45 0.03 -0.51 -0.52 0.00 -3.61 -3.42 -0.18
4 15.0 -7.46 -7.28 -0.18 -0.98 -1.01 0.04 -1.02 -1.02 0.00 -5.85 -5.58 -0.27
5 15.5 -11.81 -11.55 -0.26 -1.85 -1.89 0. 04 -1.75 -1.75 0.00 -8.67 -8.30 -0.36
6 16.0 -17.06 -16.69 -0.37 -3.00 -3.03 0. 04 -2.67 -2.66 -0.01 -11.88 -11.42 -0.46
7 16.5 -20.51 -20.02 -0.50 -3.78 -3.81 0. 02 -3.29 -3.26 -0.03 -13.96 -13.38 -0.58
8 17.0 -20.67 -0.65 -3.80 0.01 -3.31 -0.05 -14.08 -0.70
9 18.0 -21.07 -1.05 -3.86 -0.06 -3.37 -0.10 -14.38 -1.01
10 19.0 -21.60 -1.58 -3.96 -0.15 -3.45 -0.19 -14.75 -1.37
11 20.0 -22.25 -2.23 -4.09 -0.28 -3.56 -0.30 -15.17 -1.79
12 21.0 -22.99 -2.97 -4.25 -0.45 -3.69 -0.43 -15.63 -2.25
13 22.0 -23.45 -3.44 -4.36 -0.55 -3.78 -0.51 -15.91 -2.53

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. ** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER.



### Table 10.5.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulati ve National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)

Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil
1 13.5 -0.06 -0.05 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 0.00
2 14.0 -0.25 -0.24 -0.01 -0.06 -0.05 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 0.00 -0.14 -0.13 -0.01
3 14.5 -0.49 -0.47 -0.02 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 -0.13 -0.12 -0.01 -0.26 -0.25 -0.01
4 15.0 -0.81 -0.78 -0.03 -0.19 -0.19 -0. 01 -0.20 -0.19 -0.01 -0.44 -0.42 -0.02
5 15.5 -1.25 -1.21 -0.05 -0.31 -0.30 -0. 01 -0.30 -0.29 -0.01 -0.67 -0.64 -0.03
6 16.0 -1.81 -1.75 -0.07 -0.46 -0.45 -0. 01 -0.43 -0.41 -0.02 -0.96 -0.93 -0.04
7 16.5 -2.21 -2.12 -0.09 -0.57 -0.55 -0. 02 -0.51 -0.49 -0.02 -1.17 -1.12 -0.05
8 17.0 -2.24 -0.12 -0.58 -0.03 -0.51 -0.03 -1.19 -0.06
9 18.0 -2.30 -0.18 -0.59 -0.05 -0.53 -0.04 -1.22 -0.10
10 19.0 -2.38 -0.26 -0.61 -0.06 -0.54 -0.06 -1.26 -0.14
11 20.0 -2.46 -0.34 -0.64 -0.09 -0.56 -0.08 -1.30 -0.18
12 21.0 -2.55 -0.43 -0.66 -0.11 -0.58 -0.09 -1.35 -0.23
13 22.0 -2.60 -0.48 -0.67 -0.12 -0.59 -0.11 -1.38 -0.26

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. ** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER.

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### Table 10.5.13 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulati ve National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential and Commercial Sectors (7% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)

Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil Total** CoilOnly Blower Coil
1 13.5 -0.43 -0.41 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 0.00 -0.42 -0.39 -0.03
2 14.0 -2.20 -2.12 -0.08 -0.17 -0.18 0.01 -0.26 -0.26 0.00 -1.95 -1.84 -0.11
3 14.5 -4.74 -4.60 -0.14 -0.53 -0.56 0.02 -0.64 -0.64 0.00 -3.87 -3.67 -0.20
4 15.0 -8.27 -8.06 -0.21 -1.17 -1.20 0.03 -1.22 -1.21 -0.01 -6.29 -6.00 -0.29
5 15.5 -13.06 -12.75 -0.31 -2.16 -2.19 0. 03 -2.05 -2.04 -0.01 -9.33 -8.95 -0.39
6 16.0 -18.87 -18.44 -0.43 -3.46 -3.48 0. 02 -3.10 -3.07 -0.03 -12.85 -12.35 -0.50
7 16.5 -22.73 -22.14 -0.59 -4.35 -4.36 0. 00 -3.80 -3.75 -0.05 -15.13 -14.50 -0.63
8 17.0 -22.91 -0.77 -4.38 -0.02 -3.82 -0.07 -15.27 -0.77
9 18.0 -23.37 -1.24 -4.46 -0.10 -3.89 -0.15 -15.60 -1.11
10 19.0 -23.98 -1.84 -4.57 -0.22 -4.00 -0.25 -16.01 -1.51
11 20.0 -24.71 -2.57 -4.73 -0.37 -4.12 -0.38 -16.47 -1.98
12 21.0 -25.53 -3.40 -4.91 -0.56 -4.27 -0.52 -16.98 -2.48
13 22.0 -26.05 -3.91 -5.03 -0.68 -4.37 -0.62 -17.29 -2.79

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. ** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER.

10-81-30 -25 -20 -15 -10

-5 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Candidate Standard LevelNational and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.7 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Nation al and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)



### Central Air Conditio ners—Single Package Table 10.5.14 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for single package CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 10.5.14 are also broken down by sector (i.e., resi dential and commercial) . Figure 10.5.8 depicts the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL.

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### Table 10.5.14 Single Package Central Air Conditioners : Discounted Cumu lative National and Regional NPV Results fr om 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)
Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm.
1 13.5 -0.62 -0.55 -0.07 -0.03 -0.02 -0. 02 -0.07 -0.06 -0.02 -0.54 -0.50 -0.04
2 14.0 -1.26 -1.12 -0.13 -0.10 -0.07 -0. 03 -0.16 -0.13 -0.03 -1.05 -0.98 -0.07
3 14.5 -2.32 -2.09 -0.23 -0.25 -0.20 -0. 05 -0.32 -0.27 -0.06 -1.82 -1.69 -0.13
4 15.0 -3.31 -2.98 -0.33 -0.42 -0.35 -0. 08 -0.49 -0.41 -0.08 -2.49 -2.31 -0.18
5 15.5 -4.53 -4.08 -0.45 -0.66 -0.56 -0. 11 -0.70 -0.59 -0.11 -3.27 -3.03 -0.24
6 16.0 -5.67 -5.11 -0.56 -0.91 -0.77 -0. 14 -0.90 -0.77 -0.13 -3.97 -3.67 -0.30
7 16.6 -6.37 -5.74 -0.63 -1.07 -0.91 -0. 16 -1.02 -0.88 -0.15 -4.39 -4.05 -0.34

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV.

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Candidate Standard LevelNational and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.8 Single Package Central Air Conditi oners: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)

Table 10.5.15 shows the NPVs at a seven percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for single package CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-h umid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 10.5.14 are also broken down by sector (i.e ., residential and co mmercial). Figure 10.5.9 depicts the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL.

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### Table 10.5.15 Single Package Central Air Conditioners : Discounted Cumu lative National and Regional NPV Results fr om 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)
Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm.
1 13.5 -0.33 -0.29 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0. 01 -0.05 -0.04 -0.01 -0.25 -0.23 -0.02
2 14.0 -0.65 -0.58 -0.07 -0.09 -0.08 -0. 02 -0.09 -0.08 -0.02 -0.47 -0.44 -0.04
3 14.5 -1.15 -1.04 -0.11 -0.19 -0.16 -0. 03 -0.18 -0.15 -0.03 -0.82 -0.76 -0.06
4 15.0 -1.62 -1.46 -0.15 -0.28 -0.24 -0. 04 -0.26 -0.22 -0.04 -1.11 -1.03 -0.08
5 15.5 -2.21 -2.01 -0.21 -0.41 -0.36 -0. 05 -0.36 -0.31 -0.05 -1.47 -1.36 -0.11
6 16.0 -2.83 -2.57 -0.27 -0.56 -0.49 -0. 07 -0.47 -0.41 -0.06 -1.83 -1.69 -0.14
7 16.6 -3.27 -2.96 -0.31 -0.66 -0.58 -0. 08 -0.55 -0.48 -0.07 -2.08 -1.92 -0.16

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV.

-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Candidate Standard LevelNational and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)

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### 10.5.4.2 Heat Pumps
The following sections provide the results of calculating net pres ent value (NPV) based on a discount rate of seven percent for the candida te standard levels DOE analyzed for the two product classes of heat pumps, split system and single package. Results are cumulative to 2046.



### Heat Pumps—Split System Table 10.5.16 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for split system HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 10.5.16 are also broken down by sector (i.e., residential a nd commercial). Figure 10.5.10 depicts the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL.

Table 10.5.16 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative Nation al and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER HSPF Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)
Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm.
1 13.5 7.85 0.34 0.37 -0.03 0.30 0.31 -0.01 0.09 0.09 -0.01 0.01 0.02 -0.01
2 14.0 8.00 1.73 1.88 -0.15 1.55 1.60 -0.04 0.44 0.47 -0.03 0.05 0.12 -0.06
3 14.5 8.15 3.12 3.40 -0.28 2.82 2.90 -0.08 0.81 0.86 -0.06 0.09 0.21 -0.12
4 15.0 8.30 4.31 4.78 -0.47 4.01 4.16 -0.14 1.15 1.24 -0.09 0.06 0.26 -0.20
5 15.5 8.45 5.28 6.04 -0.76 5.14 5.39 -0.25 1.47 1.61 -0.14 -0.05 0.26 -0.31
6 16.0 8.60 6.27 7.45 -1.19 6.35 6.77 -0.42 1.81 2.03 -0.22 -0.19 0.29 -0.48
7 17.0 9.10 7.12 9.14 -2.03 7.94 8.69 -0.75 2.27 2.62 -0.35 -0.63 0.18 -0.81
8 18.0 9.60 6.07 9.00 -2.93 8.49 9.60 -1.11 2.46 2.96 -0.50 -1.64 -0.48 -1.16
9 19.0 10.10 4.17 7.74 -3.57 8.21 9.58 -1.37 2.44 3.04 -0.60 -2.71 -1.30 -1.40
10 19.5 10.30 3.70 7.37 -3.67 8.07 9.48 -1.41 2.41 3.02 -0.61 -2.94 -1.50 -1.44

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV.

10-85-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Candidate Standard LevelNational and Regional NPV (billion 2008$) Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.10 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)

Table 10.5.17 shows the NPVs at a seven percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for split system HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 10.5.17 are also broken down by sector (i.e., resi dential and commercial) . Figure 10.5.11 depicts the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL.

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### Table 10.5.17 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative Nation al and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER HSPF Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)
Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm.
1 13.5 7.85 0.06 0.08 -0.02 0.08 0.08 -0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01
2 14.0 8.00 0.32 0.40 -0.08 0.39 0.42 -0.03 0.13 0.14 -0.02 -0.08 -0.05 -0.03
3 14.5 8.15 0.57 0.72 -0.15 0.72 0.77 -0.05 0.23 0.26 -0.03 -0.16 -0.10 -0.06
4 15.0 8.30 0.68 0.92 -0.24 0.97 1.06 -0.08 0.32 0.36 -0.04 -0.27 -0.18 -0.09
5 15.5 8.45 0.61 0.98 -0.36 1.15 1.28 -0.13 0.38 0.45 -0.06 -0.45 -0.30 -0.14
6 16.0 8.60 0.44 0.99 -0.55 1.30 1.51 -0.21 0.44 0.54 -0.10 -0.67 -0.45 -0.22
7 17.0 9.10 -0.08 0.85 -0.92 1.41 1.78 -0.37 0.51 0.66 -0.15 -1.08 -0.72 -0.36
8 18.0 9.60 -1.35 -0.02 -1.33 1.12 1.66 -0.53 0.47 0.69 -0.22 -1.73 -1.21 -0.51
9 19.0 10.10 -2.92 -1.26 -1.66 0.59 1.26 -0.68 0.37 0.63 -0.27 -2.42 -1.78 -0.64
10 19.5 10.30 -3.32 -1.60 -1.72 0.43 1.13 -0.70 0.33 0.61 -0.28 -2.59 -1.93 -0.66

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV.

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Candidate Standard LevelNational and Regional NPV (billion 2008$) Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country



### Figure 10.5.11 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)

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### Heat Humps—Single Package Table 10.5.18 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for single package HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 10.5.18 are also broken down by sector (i.e., resi dential and commercial) . Figure 10.5.12 depicts the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL.

Table 10.5.18 Single Package Heat Pump s: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER HSPF Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)
Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm.
1 13.5 7.85 -0.05 -0.02 -0.03 0.03 0.04 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.05 -0.04 -0.01
2 14.0 8.00 -0.22 -0.14 -0.08 0.03 0.06 -0.03 0.01 0.03 -0.01 -0.16 -0.13 -0.03
3 14.5 8.00 -0.58 -0.42 -0.16 -0.04 0.03 -0.06 0.00 0.03 -0.03 -0.35 -0.29 -0.06
4 15.0 8.00 -0.94 -0.70 -0.24 -0.13 -0.03 -0.10 -0.02 0.02 -0.04 -0.51 -0.42 -0.09
5 15.5 8.50 -1.35 -1.02 -0.33 -0.27 -0.14 -0.13 -0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.67 -0.55 -0.12
6 16.0 9.00 -1.86 -1.46 -0.40 -0.47 -0.31 -0.16 -0.10 -0.03 -0.07 -0.87 -0.72 -0.15
7 16.4 9.00 -2.16 -1.73 -0.43 -0.60 -0.42 -0.18 -0.13 -0.06 -0.07 -0.99 -0.83 -0.16

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV.

10-88National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$) 0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

-2.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country

Candidate Standard Level


### Figure 10.5.12 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulati ve National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)

Table 10.5.19 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for single package HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 10.5.19 are also broken down by sector (i.e., resi dential and commercial) . Figure 10.5.13 depicts the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL.

Table 10.5.19 Single Package Heat Pump s: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER HSPF Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry ( bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$)
Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm.
1 13.5 7.85 -0.05 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 0.00
2 14.0 8.00 -0.18 -0.14 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.09 -0.08 -0.01
3 14.5 8.00 -0.42 -0.35 -0.08 -0.12 -0.09 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.20 -0.17 -0.03
4 15.0 8.00 -0.63 -0.52 -0.11 -0.20 -0.15 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.29 -0.25 -0.04
5 15.5 8.50 -0.87 -0.72 -0.15 -0.30 -0.23 -0.06 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 -0.37 -0.31 -0.06
6 16.0 9.00 -1.18 -0.99 -0.19 -0.43 -0.35 -0.08 -0.09 -0.06 -0.03 -0.48 -0.41 -0.07
7 16.4 9.00 -1.38 -1.16 -0.21 -0.52 -0.43 -0.09 -0.11 -0.08 -0.03 -0.56 -0.48 -0.08

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV.

10-89National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$) 0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5 Nation
Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest-of-Country

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Candidate Standard Level


### Figure 10.5.13 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulati ve National and Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)

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### REFERENCES

1 

### Air-Conditioning, Heating and Refrigerator Institute. Historical shipments and shipmentweighted efficiency data submittal. December 2008.

2 

### U.S. Department of Energy –Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030 . March 2009. U.S. DOE–EIA: Washington, D.C. DOE/EIA0383(2009). < http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2009).pdf >

3 

### Office of Management and Budget. OMB Circular A-4, Regulatory Analysis . 2003. OMB: Washington, D.C. September 17, 2003.

< www.whitehouse.gov/omb/assets/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.pdf >

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