Using the NEMS

Commercial Model for

Standards Impact Analysis

Steve Shankle

hwest National Laboratory

March 11, 1997

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 86

Using the NEMS 

. Commercial Model for 

Standards Impact Analysis 

Steve Shankle 

. Pacific Northwe.st National Laboratory 

March 11, 1997 
EMS commerc ial model used

to evaluate AS HRAE publ ic

review draft

n EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

1996 baseline inputs used

m, NEMS PC 1995 model version

n Applied NEMS to potential water heater

standards as demonstration

n Received significant technical support

from EIA in applying model

Mich 11! 199

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 86

:1~~~~-----,--,,-----

NEMS commercial model used 

to evaluate ASHRAE public 

review draft 

II EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 

1'996 baseline inputs used 

II" NEMS PC 1995 model version 

II Applied NEMS to potential water heater 

standards as demonstration 

• Received significant technical support 

from EIA in applying model 
zzzzzz //ZZZ-////

Step 1 : Generate Baseline Input

Data

n Start with input files used to generate

AEO 96

n Modify NEMS technology description to

match ASHRAE formulation

-Adjustments to efficiencies, availability,

costs

-Calibrated to AEO 96 energy forecast

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 86

~~~~~~ 

Step 1: Generate Baseline Input 

Data 

• Start with input files used to generate 

AE096 

II Modify NEMS technology description to 

match ASH RAE formulation 

- Adjustments to efficiencies, availability, 

costs 

- Calibrated to AE,O 96 energy forecast 

/ 
-Z/Z

Step 2 : Model Standards

n Switch off availability of lower efficiency

equipment in years following standard

n "Policy handle" in NEMS specifically

designed to allow modeling of

standards

n Model multiple cases, each with

different standards level

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 86

Step 2: Model Standards 

II Switch off availability of lower efficiency 

equipment in years following standard 

II "Policy handle" in NEMS s.pecifically 

designed to allow mod,eling of 

standards 

II Model multiple cases, each with 

different standards level 
Z-Z/ZZZZZ ///ZZZ

Step 3: Run N EMS Cases

n Run NEMS baseline

n Run each standards case

n Outputs are fed into post-processor

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 86

Step 3: Run NEMS Cases 

II Run NEMS baseline 

II Run each standards case 

II Outputs are fed into post-processor 
Step 4: Post-processing

n NEMS outputs regional service demand

by technology (trillion Btu/year)

n Convert to required capacity using

efficiency

n Convert to actual capacity using

capacity factor

n Convert to shipments using average

equipment capacity (or a distribution)

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 86

Step 4: Post-processing 

• NEMS outputs regional service demand 

by technology (trillion Btu/year) 

II Convert to required capacity using 

efficiency 

• Convert to actual capacity using 

capacity factor 

• Convert to shipments using average 

equipment capacity (or a distribution) 
/^-ZZZZZZZZZZZ IZZZ ZIssues

n Within technology "Types" NEMS does

not explicitly define equipment size

n Competition between size categories

within a technology type is . difficult to

model

Mdreh 1 1! 199

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 86

Issues 

• Within technology "Types" NEMS does 

not explicitly define equipment size 

• Competition between size categories 

within a technology type is difficult to 

model 

/ 
/ZZ/ // / /

issues (conyt)

n Energy and equipment costs may not

entirely determine consumer choice:

- Availability of fuel type

- Demand charges for electricity

- One time costs for fuel switching

EE-PI-96-001 COMMENT 86

Issues (con't) 

II Energy and equipment costs may not 

entirely determine consumer choice: 

- Availability of fuel type . 

- Demand charges for electricity 

- One time costs for fuel switching