1-i TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT: RESIDENTIAL FURNACE AND BOILER ENERGY EFFICIENCY STANDARD TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 PURPOSE OF DOCUMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1 1.2 OVERVIEW OF APPLIANCE STANDARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1 1.3 OVERVIEW OF RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS STANDARDS . . . . 1-2 1.3.1 Issues Related to Venting of Residential Furnaces and Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-6 1.3.1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-6 1.3.1.2 Summary of Stakeholder Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-8 1.3.1.3 Department of Energy Analysis Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-9 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-10 CHAPTER 2. ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK 2.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1 2.2 BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 2.3 MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 2.3.1 Market Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 2.3.2 Technology Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 2.3.3 Product Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-5 2.4 SCREENING ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6 2.5 ENGINEERING ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6 2.5.1 Baseline Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6 2.5.2 Manufacturing Cost Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6 2.5.3 Markup Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-7 2.5.4 Installation Cost Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-8 2.6 LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-8 2.7 NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9 2.7.1 Shipments Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9 2.7.2 National Energy Savings Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9 2.7.3 Net Present Value Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-10 2.8 LIFE-CYCLE COST SUBGROUP ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-11 2.9 MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-11 2.9.1 Industry Characterization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-12 2.9.2 Industry Cash Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-12 2.9.3 Manufacturer Sub-Group Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-12 2.9.4 Interview Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-13 2.9.5 Competitive Impact Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-14 2.10 UTILITY IMPACTS ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-14 2.11 NET NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-151-ii 2.12 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-16 2.13 REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-17 CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 3.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1 3.2 TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2 3.2.1 Furnace Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2 3.2.1.1 Types of Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2 3.2.1.2 Configurations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-3 3.2.1.3 Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-4 3.2.1.4 Mobile Home Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7 3.2.1.5 Electric Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7 3.2.1.6 Input Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-8 3.2.1.7 Electricity Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-10 3.2.2 Boiler Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11 3.2.2.1 Types of Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11 3.2.2.2 Boiler Input Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-13 3.2.2.3 Boiler Electricity Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-14 3.2.3 Combination Space- and Water-Heating Appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-15 3.3 EFFICIENCY CHARACTERISTICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-16 3.3.1 Efficiency Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-16 3.3.2 Furnace Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-17 3.3.3 Boiler Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-20 3.3.4 Combination Space- and Water-Heating Appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-21 3.4 MARKET FOR FURNACES AND BOILERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-21 3.4.1 Shipments Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-21 3.4.2 Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-26 3.4.3 Distribution Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-28 CHAPTER 4. SCREENING ANALYSIS 4.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-1 4.2 DISCUSSION OF DESIGN OPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2 4.2.1 Design Options that Passed Screening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2 4.2.1.1 Improved Heat Exchanger Effectiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2 4.2.1.2 Modulating Operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-5 4.2.1.3 Increased or Improved Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-7 4.2.1.4 Condensing Secondary Heat Exchanger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-7 4.2.1.5 Electronic Ignition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-8 4.2.1.6 Induced and Forced-Draft Combustion Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-9 4.2.1.7 Infrared Burner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-10 4.2.1.8 Direct Vent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-11 4.2.1.9 Fuel Filtration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-121-iii 4.2.1.10 Pulse Combustion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-12 4.2.1.11 Dampers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-13 4.2.1.12 Air-atomized Burner with Modulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-13 4.2.1.13 Delayed-Action Oil-Pump Solenoid Valve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-14 4.2.1.14 Increased Motor Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-14 4.2.1.15 Increased Blower Impeller Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-15 4.2.2 Design Options Eliminated from Further Consideration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-15 4.2.2.1 Self-Generation of Electric Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-16 4.2.2.2 Fuel-Driven Heat Pumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-16 4.2.2.3 Flue-Gas Recirculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-17 4.2.2.4 Smart Valve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-18 4.3 SUMMARY OF SCREENING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-18 CHAPTER 5. MARKUPS FOR EQUIPMENT PRICE DETERMINATION 5.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1 5.1.1 Baseline Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-3 5.1.2 Incremental Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-3 5.2 MANUFACTURER MARKUP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-4 5.2.1 Estimation of Manufacturer Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-5 5.3 WHOLESALE AND CONTRACTOR MARKUPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-5 5.3.1 Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-5 5.3.2 Estimation of Wholesaler Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-6 5.3.2.1 Estimation of Wholesaler Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-8 5.3.3 Estimation of Contractor Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-9 5.3.3.1 Contractor Markups in the Replacement and New Construction Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-11 5.3.3.2 Estimation of Contractor Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . 5-12 5.4 BUILDER MARKUP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-13 5.5 MARKUP FOR MOBILE HOME GAS FURNACES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-14 5.6 SALES TAX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-14 5.7 OVERALL MARKUPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-15 CHAPTER 6. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS 6.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.2 PRODUCT CLASSES CONSIDERED. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.3 IDENTIFICATION OF BASELINE MODELS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-2 6.4 MANUFACTURING COST ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3 6.4.1 Generation of Bills of Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-4 6.4.1.1 Teardown Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-4 6.4.1.2 Modeling Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-7 6.4.2 Approach for Condensing Boilers and Mobile Home Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . 6-11 6.4.3 Cost Model and Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-111-iv 6.4.3.1 Outsourcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-13 6.4.3.2 Greenfield Facility Specifications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-14 6.4.3.3 Production Volumes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-15 6.4.3.4 Generating Production-Cost Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-16 6.4.4 Sensitivity Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-16 6.4.5 Curves of Manufacturing Cost Versus Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-20 6.5 INSTALLATION COSTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-24 6.5.1 Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-26 6.5.1.1 Installation Model Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-26 6.5.1.2 Installation Model Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-29 6.5.1.3 Model Results Compared to Other Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-30 6.5.2 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-33 6.5.3 Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-34 6.5.4 Mobile Home Gas Furnaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-35 6.5.5 Oil-Fired Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-35 6.5.6 Hot-Water Gas Boilers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-36 6.5.7 Hot-Water Oil-fired Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-37 6.6 MAINTENANCE COST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-38 6.7 ENGINEERING ANALYSIS PAYBACK PERIODS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-39 6.7.1 Calculation of Fuel Consumption for Each Design Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-39 6.7.2 Calculation of Electricity Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-40 6.7.3 Derivation of Fuel Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-40 6.7.4 Rebuttable Payback . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-41 6.7.4.1 Rebuttable Payback Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-41 6.8 ENGINEERING SPREADSHEETS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-42 CHAPTER 7. ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF FURNACES AND BOILERS 7.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1 7.2 METHOD FOR NON-WEATHERIZED GAS FURNACES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1 7.3 VIRTUAL FURNACE MODELS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-2 7.3.1 Basic Actual Furnace Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-3 7.3.2 Input Capacity and Maximum Airflow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4 7.3.2.1 Non-weatherized gas furnaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4 7.3.2.2 Other Product Classes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-5 7.3.3 Blower Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-6 7.3.4 Motor Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-6 7.3.5 Supply-Air Outlet Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-7 7.3.6 Power Consumption of Draft Inducer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-11 7.3.7 Delay Times and Ignitor Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-11 7.4 ASSIGNING EXISTING EQUIPMENT TO SAMPLE HOUSES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-11 7.4.1 Furnace Input Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-11 7.4.2 Airflow Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-13 7.4.3 Efficiency Characteristics of Existing Equipment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-131-v 7.4.4 Electricity Consumption of the Existing Furnace Blower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-14 7.5 CALCULATING FURNACE BLOWER ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION . . . . . . 7-14 7.5.1 System Curves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-15 7.5.2 Furnace Fan Curves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-16 7.5.3 Overall Air-Moving Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-17 7.5.4 Blower-Motor Electricity Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-21 7.6 ANNUAL HEATING AND COOLING LOADS IN SAMPLE HOUSES. . . . . . . . . 7-21 7.6.1 Annual House-Heating Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-21 7.6.2 Annual House-Cooling Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-22 7.7 FURNACE ENERGY CONSUMPTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-23 7.7.1 Fuel Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-23 7.7.2 Electricity Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-23 7.8 BOILER ENERGY CONSUMPTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-25 7.9 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-25 7.9.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-25 7.9.2 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-28 7.9.3 Mobile Home Furnace Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-30 7.9.4 Oil Furnace Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-32 7.9.5 Gas Boiler Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-34 7.9.6 Hot-Water Oil Boiler Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-36 CHAPTER 8. LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS 8.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-1 8.1.1 General Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-1 8.2 METHOD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-3 8.2.1 Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-4 8.2.2 Data Set for Calculating LCCs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-11 8.2.2.1 New Construction versus Replacement Installations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-13 8.3 INPUTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-14 8.3.1 First-Cost Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-14 8.3.1.1 Manufacturing Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-16 8.3.1.2 Installation Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-17 8.3.1.3 Finance Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-18 8.3.2 Operating-Cost Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-18 8.3.2.1 Energy Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-19 8.3.2.2 Maintenance Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-21 8.3.3 Lifetime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-22 8.3.4 Discount Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-22 8.3.4.1 Approach for Estimating Discount Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-22 8.3.4.2 Discount Rate Applied to New Housing Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-23 8.3.4.3 Discount Rate Applied to Replacement Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-23 8.3.4.4 Accounting for Variation in Discount Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-24 8.3.5 Payback Period Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-241-vi 8.3.6 Summary of Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-26 8.4 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-26 8.4.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-27 8.4.2 Other Product Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-31 CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS 9.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-1 9.2 REPLACEMENTS AND CONVERSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-2 9.2.1 Conversions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-3 9.2.2 Replacement and Conversion Estimates for 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-4 9.3 SHIPMENTS TO NEW HOUSING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-5 9.3.1 Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-5 9.3.2 New Housing Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-6 9.3.3 Heating Equipment Market Share in New Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-6 9.4 PROJECTED TOTAL SHIPMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-11 CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 10.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-1 10.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-1 10.2.1 Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-1 10.2.2 National Energy Savings Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-3 10.2.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-3 10.2.2.2 Shipments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-4 10.2.2.3 Equipment Stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-5 10.2.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-5 10.2.2.5 Site-to-Source Conversion Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-5 10.2.2.6 Summary of Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-6 10.3 CONSUMER IMPACTS: NET PRESENT VALUE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-7 10.3.1 Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-7 10.3.2 Net Present Value Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-8 10.3.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-8 10.3.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-8 10.3.2.3 Discount Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-9 10.3.3 Present Value of Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-10 10.3.4 Present Value of Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-10 10.4 NES AND NPV RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-11 10.4.2 Results Using Three Percent Discount Rate as a Sensitivity. . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-14 10.5 NES AND NPV SPREADSHEET. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-17 CHAPTER 11. LIFE-CYCLE COST SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS 11.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-11-vii 11.2 PURCHASE PRICE INCREASES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-1 CHAPTER 12. MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS 12.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 12.2 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 12.2.1 Phase 1: Industry Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 12.2.2 Phase 2: Industry Cash Flow Analysis and Interview Guide. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-2 12.2.2.1 Industry Cash Flow Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-2 12.2.2.2 Interview Guide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-2 12.2.3 Phase 3: Sub-Group Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-3 12.2.3.1 Manufacturer Interviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-3 12.2.3.2 Revised Industry Cash Flow Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-4 12.2.3.3 Manufacturer Sub-Group Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-4 12.2.3.4 Competitive Impact Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-4 12.2.3.5 Manufacturing Capacity Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-5 12.2.3.6 Employment Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-5 12.2.3.7 Cumulative Regulatory Burden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-5 12.3 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-6 12.3.1 Phase 1 – Industry Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-6 12.3.2 Phase 2 – Industry Cash Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-6 12.3.3 Phase 3 – Sub-Group Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-7 CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 13.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-1 13.2 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-2 13.3 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-2 CHAPTER 14. EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS ANALYSIS 14.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-1 14.2 ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-1 14.3 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-1 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 1.0 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EA-1 2.0 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EA-1 3.0 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EA-2 REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS1-viii 1.0 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-1 2.0 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-1 APPENDIX 5.1. DETAILED DATA FOR EQUIPMENT PRICE MARKUPS 5.1.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 5.1-1 5.1.2 DETAILED WHOLESALER DATA .................................... 5.1-2 5.1.3 DETAILED BUILDER DATA ......................................... 5.1-3 5.1.4 DETAILED CONTRACTOR DATA .................................... 5.1-4 5.1.5 ESTIMATION OF MARKUP STANDARD DEVIATIONS .................. 5.1-5 5.1.6 ESTIMATION OF FRACTION OF GAS FURNACE SHIPMENTS TO NEW CONSTRUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1-10 APPENDIX 6.1. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION OF THE REVERSE ENGINEERING COST ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY 6.1.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................. 6.1-1 6.1.2 TEAR-DOWNS .................................................... 6.1-1 6.1.2.1 General Tear-Down Practice ..................................... 6.1-1 6.1.2.2 Specific Product Class Features................................... 6.1-2 6.1.2.3 Weight Confirmation of Tear-down Results ......................... 6.1-2 6.1.2.4 Final Confirmation of Tear-down Results .......................... 6.1-2 6.1.2.5 General Tear-down Practice of “Hypothetical” Units .................. 6.1-3 6.1.3 CREATING THE TEAR-DOWN BILL OF MATERIALS ................... 6.1-4 6.1.4 ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION COST DATA............................. 6.1-5 6.1.4.1 Labor and Factory Overhead ..................................... 6.1-5 6.1.4.2 Depreciation .................................................. 6.1-5 6.1.4.3 Parts and Materials ............................................ 6.1-6 6.1.5 STRUCTURE OF THE COST MODELS ................................. 6.1-8 6.1.5.1 Main Cost Model ............................................. 6.1-8 6.1.6 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS ................................. 6.1-12 APPENDIX 6.2. INSTALLATION COST MODEL 6.2.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 6.2-1 6.2.2 DESCRIPTION OF VENTINGOPTIONS AND CONFIGURATIONS ......... 6.2-2 6.2.2.1 Market ...................................................... 6.2-3 6.2.2.2 Furnace Category.............................................. 6.2-3 6.2.2.2.1 Non-Condensing ..................................... 6.2-4 6.2.2.2.2 Near-Condensing ..................................... 6.2-41-ix 6.2.2.2.3 Condensing ......................................... 6.2-4 6.2.2.3 Existing Vent Type ............................................ 6.2-5 6.2.2.3.1 Masonry Chimney .................................... 6.2-5 6.2.2.3.2 Type B Double Wall Metal ............................. 6.2-6 6.2.2.3.3 Plastic PVC ......................................... 6.2-7 6.2.2.4 Chimney Liner................................................ 6.2-7 6.2.2.4.1 Exterior Chimneys .................................... 6.2-8 6.2.2.4.2 Interior Chimneys .................................... 6.2-8 6.2.2.5 Existing Vent Connector ........................................ 6.2-9 6.2.2.6 Venting Option Conclusion ..................................... 6.2-10 6.2.2.7 Vent Orientation ............................................. 6.2-11 6.2.2.8 Water Heater Venting ......................................... 6.2-11 6.2.2.8.1 Orphaned Water Heaters .............................. 6.2-12 6.2.2.8.2 Unlined Masonry Chimney Vents ....................... 6.2-12 6.2.2.8.3 Type B Double Wall Metal Vent ........................ 6.2-13 6.2.2.8.4 Lined Masonry Chimney Vents ......................... 6.2-13 6.2.2.8.5 Orphaned Water Heater Summary ....................... 6.2-13 6.2.2.9 Venting Configurations Summary................................ 6.2-14 6.2.3 MODEL APPROACH ............................................... 6.2-15 6.2.3.1 Candidate Standard Levels ..................................... 6.2-16 6.2.3.1.1 80% AFUE Baseline Non-Condensing Trial Standard Level . . 6.2-16 6.2.3.1.2 81%A AFUE 2-Stage Modulation Near-Condensing Trial Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2-17 6.2.3.1.3 81%B, 82% AFUE Near-Condensing Trial Standard Levels . . 6.2-18 6.2.3.1.4 83% AFUE All Stainless Steel Near-Condensing Trial Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2-18 6.2.3.1.5 90%+ AFUE Condensing Trial Standard Level ............ 6.2-18 6.2.3.2 Bill of Material Calculations ................................... 6.2-20 6.2.3.2.1 Size-Related Parameter Calculation ..................... 6.2-20 6.2.3.2.2 Create Bill of Materials (BOM) ......................... 6.2-25 6.2.3.2.3 Labor and Material Costs for Each BOM Line Item ......... 6.2-27 6.2.4 MODEL ASSUMPTIONS SUMMARY ................................. 6.2-29 6.2.4.1 Venting Options.............................................. 6.2-29 6.2.4.2 Weighting .................................................. 6.2-30 6.2.4.3 Probabilities ................................................. 6.2-30 6.2.4.4 Size-Related Parameters ....................................... 6.2-30 6.2.4.5 Material .................................................... 6.2-31 6.2.4.6 Financial ................................................... 6.2-31 6.2.4.7 Gas Boiler Assumptions ....................................... 6.2-31 6.2.4.8 Oil Furnace Assumptions ...................................... 6.2-31 6.2.4.9 Oil Boiler Assumptions ........................................ 6.2-32 6.2.5 MODEL RESULTS ................................................. 6.2-32 6.2.5.1 81%A 2-stage Modulation Relative Cost Breakdown................. 6.2-33 6.2.5.2 83% All Stainless Steel Vent Relative Cost Breakdown .............. 6.2-341-x 6.2.5.3 90% Condensing Relative Cost Breakdown ........................ 6.2-35 6.2.5.4 Gas Boiler Model Results ...................................... 6.2-36 6.2.5.5 Oil Furnace Model Results ..................................... 6.2-36 6.2.5.6 Oil Boiler Model Results ....................................... 6.2-37 6.2.6 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS .......................................... 6.2-37 6.2.6.1 Sensitivity Analysis Assumptions ................................ 6.2-38 6.2.6.2 Incremental Cost Result Ranges ................................. 6.2-39 6.2.6.3 Cost Result Sensitivity ........................................ 6.2-40 6.2.6.4 Weighting Sensitivity ......................................... 6.2-41 6.2.6.4.1 Regional Differences ................................. 6.2-41 6.2.6.4.2 Recent Trends ...................................... 6.2-42 6.2.7 INSTALLATION MODEL RESULTS COMPARED TO OTHER DATA ...... 6.2-43 6.2.7.1 Comparison of the Installation Model to 1994 GRI Data .............. 6.2-44 6.2.7.2 Comparison of the Installation Model to 1999 Canadian Data .......... 6.2-45 6.2.7.3 Comparison of the Installation Model to 1996 Wisconsin Data ......... 6.2-45 6.2.7.4 Comparison Summary ......................................... 6.2-46 6.2.8 WEIGHTING ESTIMATIONS FOR YEAR 2012 ......................... 6.2-46 6.2.8.1 Single : Double Wall Vent Connector Ratio ....................... 6.2-46 6.2.8.2 Masonry Chimney Linings ..................................... 6.2-47 6.2.9 ABSOLUTE COST BREAKDOWN.................................... 6.2-49 6.2.9.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces ................................. 6.2-49 6.2.9.2 Gas Boilers ................................................. 6.2-51 6.2.9.3 Oil Furnaces................................................. 6.2-53 6.2.9.4 Oil Boilers .................................................. 6.2-54 6.2.10 VENTING GLOSSARY ............................................. 6.2-55 APPENDIX 6.3. DETERMINATION OF FURNACE AND BOILER ENERGY USE 6.3.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.3.2 CALCULATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.3.2.1 Determination of Average Annual Fuel Energy Consumption (EF) . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.3.2.2 Determination of Average Annual Electrical Energy Consumption (EAE) . . . . 6-2 6.3.2.3 Determination of National Average Number of Burner Operating Hours (BOHSS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3 6.3.2.4 Determination of National Average Number of Burner Operating Hours for Two-Stage and Step Modulating Furnaces and Boilers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-4 6.3.2.5 Determination of Heating Seasonal Efficiency (EffySS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-5 6.3.3 PARAMETERS TO DETERMINE THE ENERGY USE OF MODULATING FURNACES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-5 6.3.3.1 Parameters to Determine Average Annual Fuel Energy Consumption . . . . . . . 6-6 6.3.3.2 Parameters to Determine Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-7 6.3.3.3 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-8 6.3.4 SUMMARY TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-81-xi APPENDIX 6.4. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS COST AND EFFICIENCY TABLES 6.4.1 NOTE ............................................................. 6.4-1 APPENDIX 7.1. REDUCED SET OF FURNACE MODELS DATABASE 7.1.1 PURPOSE ......................................................... 7.1-1 7.1.2 DATABASE DEVELOPMENT ........................................ 7.1-1 7.1.2.1 Background .................................................. 7.1-1 7.1.2.2 Database Structure ............................................ 7.1-1 APPENDIX 7.2. DECODING OF MANUFACTURER MODEL NUMBERS APPENDIX 7.3. DETERMINATION OF BASIC FURNACE MODELS APPENDIX 7.4. FURNACE FAN CURVES 7.4.1 GENERAL AIR SPEED AND AIRFLOW RELATIONSHIP ................. 7.4-1 7.4.2 BLOWER FAN CURVES ............................................. 7.4-2 7.4.2.1 Fan Laws .................................................... 7.4-3 7.4.2.2 Motor Speed ................................................. 7.4-3 7.4.2.3 Shaft Power .................................................. 7.4-4 7.4.2.4 System Effect Factor ........................................... 7.4-4 7.4.3 FAN CURVES FOR GENERIC MODEL FURNACES ...................... 7.4-4 APPENDIX 7.5. BLOWER FAN CURVES 7.5.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 7.5-1 7.5.2 STATIC PRESSURE ................................................. 7.5-4 7.5.3 SHAFT POWER .................................................... 7.5-4 APPENDIX 7.6. OVERALL AIR-MOVING EFFICIENCY 7.6.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 7.6-1 7.6.2 RESULTS ......................................................... 7.6-5 APPENDIX 7.7. GAS AND ELECTRICITY USE FOR MODULATING FURNACES 7.7.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 7.7-1 7.7.2 SINGLE STAGE EQUIVALENT BURNER OPERATING HOURS ........... 7.7-1 7.7.2.1 Annual Average Heating Energy (EM) ............................. 7.7-2 7.7.3 BURNER OPERATING HOURS AT REDUCED AND HIGH FIRING MODES . 7.7-21-xii 7.7.3.1 Fraction of Heating Load........................................ 7.7-3 7.7.3.2 Balance-Point Temperature (TC) .................................. 7.7-3 7.7.3.3 Oversize Factor (

### ") ............................................ 7.7-3 7.7.3.4 Heating Capacity at Maximum Input Rate (QOUT) .................... 7.7-4 7.7.3.5 Reduced Fuel Input Rate Heating Capacity ......................... 7.7-5 7.7.3.6 Design Heating Requirement .................................... 7.7-5 7.7.4 FAN MOTOR ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION .......................... 7.7-6 APPENDIX 8.1. GLOSSARY OF VARIABLES AND THEIR VALUES FROM EIA’S RECS97 APPENDIX 8.2. DISTRIBUTION FOR DISCOUNT RATES 8.2.1 DISTRIBUTION OF NEW INSTALLATION DISCOUNT RATES ............ 8.2-1 8.2.2 DISTRIBUTION OF REPLACEMENT DISCOUNT RATES ................. 8.2-1

APPENDIX 8.3. LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE INSTALLATION COST SCENARIOS 8.3.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 8.3-1 8.3.2 LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR NON-WEATHERIZED GAS FURNACES USING ALTERNATIVE INSTALLATION COSTS ........................ 8.3-1 8.3.3 LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR GAS BOILERS USING ALTERNATIVE INSTALLATION COSTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3-7 APPENDIX 8.4. LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS 8.4.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 8.4-1 8.4.2 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 HIGH GROWTH PRICE SCENARIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-3 8.4.3 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 LOW GROWTH PRICE SCENARIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-16 APPENDIX 8.5. ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY DESIGN OPTIONS FOR FURNACES AND BOILERS 8.5.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 8.5-1 8.5.2 ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY OPTIONS THAT PASSED SCREENING ....... 8.5-1 8.5.3 MANUFACTURING COST .......................................... 8.5-2 8.5.4 CALCULATION OF FURNACE OR BOILER ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION WITH DESIGN OPTIONS, USING DOE TEST PROCEDURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-2 8.5.5 ELECTRICITY-EFFICIENCY DESIGN OPTIONS CONSIDERED IN THE LCC ANALYSIS FOR FURNACES .................................... 8.5-41-xiii 8.5.6 ELECTRICITY-EFFICIENCY DESIGN OPTIONS CONSIDERED IN THE LCC ANALYSIS FOR BOILERS AND OIL-FIRED EQUIPMENT ........... 8.5-5 8.5.7 RESULTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION CALCULATIONS ............... 8.5-6 8.5.8 LCC RESULTS INCLUDING ELECTRICITY-EFFICIENCY DESIGN OPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-23 APPENDIX 8.7. POWER CONSUMPTION OF ECM BLOWER MOTORS 8.7.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 8.7-1 8.7.2 BLOWER SPEED AND SHAFT POWER ................................ 8.7-1 8.7.3 DEVELOPMENT OF EFFICIENCY EQUATION ......................... 8.7-3 8.7.4 BLOWER MOTOR POWER CONSUMPTION........................... 8.7-10 APPENDIX 8.6. FURNACE AIRFLOW CAPACITY TESTING 8.6.1 SUMMARY ........................................................ 8.6-2 8.6.2 BACKGROUND .................................................... 8.6-2 8.6.3 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 8.6-3 8.6.3.1 Objectives of the Furnace and Blower Airflow Testing ............. 8.6-3 8.6.3.2 How is Airflow Tested Now .................................. 8.6-3 8.6.3.3 Who Did the Testing? ....................................... 8.6-3 8.6.3.4 Which Furnaces and Blowers were Tested? ...................... 8.6-3 8.6.3.5 What Data are Provided in the Carrier Furnace Literature for the Installer? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6-4 8.6.3.6 How was the Testing Conducted? .............................. 8.6-5 8.6.3.7 Basic Description of PSC and ECM Motors ...................... 8.6-5 8.6.3.8 Furnace Circulating-Air Blowers............................... 8.6-5 8.6.3.9 Testing with AMCA 210 ..................................... 8.6-5 8.6.3.10 How did ESL do the testing? .................................. 8.6-5 8.6.3.11 Differences from a Typical Blower Curve Test by ESL ............. 8.6-6 8.6.3.12 Instrumentation and Test Setup ................................ 8.6-6 8.6.4 RESULTS ......................................................... 8.6-7 8.6.4.1 Should AMCA 210 be Used to Measure Airflow to More Accurately Measure Furnace Electrical Energy Use? ............... 8.6-8 8.6.4.2 Are There Energy Savings Benefits Possible for Furnace Blowers? . . . 8.6-10 8.6.5 BLOWER SPEED AND AIRFLOW.................................... 8.6-11 8.6.6 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS ......................................... 8.6-12 8.6.7 CONCLUSIONS ................................................... 8.6-12 APPENDIX 8.8. POWER CONSUMPTION OF BC/ECM+ BLOWER MOTORS 8.8.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 8.8-1 8.8.2 SHAFT POWER AND STATIC PRESSURE AT CONSTANT SPEED ......... 8.8-2 8.8.3 BLOWER AT OTHER SPEEDS AND AIRFLOWS ........................ 8.8-31-xiv 8.8.4 OTHER SIZE BLOWERS ............................................. 8.8-4 8.8.5 SYSTEM EFFECT FACTOR OF BLOWERS IN FURNACES ............... 8.8-5 8.8.6 BLOWER SPEED AND SHAFT POWER AS FUNCTION OF FURNACE STATIC PRESSURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.8-7 8.8.7 ECM 4.0 MOTOR EFFICIENCY ....................................... 8.8-9 8.8.8 BC/ECM+ BLOWER MOTOR ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ........... 8.8-10 APPENDIX 8.9. AIR CONDITIONER OPERATING HOURS 8.9.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 8.9-1 8.9.2 ANNUAL HOUSE COOLING LOAD ................................... 8.9-1 8.9.3 ANNUAL AIR CONDITIONER OPERATING HOURS .................... 8.9-1 8.9.4 AIR CONDITIONER CAPACITY ...................................... 8.9-2 8.9.5 HEAT ADDED BY BLOWER AND BLOWER MOTOR.................... 8.9-2 8.9.6 IMPACT OF NEW BLOWER AND/OR BLOWER MOTOR DESIGN OPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.9-2 APPENDIX 10.1. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE USING ALTERNATIVE INSTALLATION COSTS AND ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS 10.1.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................. 10.1-1 10.1.2 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE INSTALLATION COSTS ............. 10.1-1 10.1.3 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS ......... 10.1-6 10.1.3.1 NES/NPV Results Using High Economic Growth Scenario ......... 10.1-6 10.1.3.2 NES/NPV Results Using Low Economic Growth Scenario ......... 10.1-9 10.1.4 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS– COMPARISON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1-11 10.1.4.1 National Energy Savings (NES) ............................. 10.1-11 10.1.4.2 Net Present Value (NPV) ................................... 10.1-14 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.3.1 History of Furnace and Boiler Standards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-4 Table 1.3.2 Residential Furnace and Boiler Analyses Required by Process Rule . . . . . 1-4 Table 3.2.1 Median Capacity of Furnace Models in the GAMA Directory . . . . . . . . . . 3-8 Table 3.2.2 Median Annual Auxiliary Electricity Use of Furnace Models . . . . . . . . . 3-10 Table 3.3.1 Current Federal Residential Furnace and Boiler Minimum Efficiency Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-17 Table 3.4.1 Market Statistics for Furnaces and Boilers by Product Class . . . . . . . . . . 3-23 Table 3.4.2 Manufacturer Market Shares for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (%) . . . 3-26 Table 3.4.3 Approximate Manufacturer Market Shares for Blower Motors, 2002 (%) 3-28 Table 3.2.1 Median Capacity of Furnace Models in the GAMA Directory . . . . . . . . . . 3-8 Table 3.2.2 Median Annual Auxiliary Electricity Use of Furnace Models . . . . . . . . . 3-101-xv Table 3.3.1 Current Federal Residential Furnace and Boiler Minimum Efficiency Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-16 Table 3.4.1 Market Statistics for Furnaces and Boilers by Product Class . . . . . . . . . . 3-22 Table 3.4.2 Manufacturer Market Shares for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (%) . . . 3-25 Table 3.4.3 Approximate Manufacturer Market Shares for Blower Motors, 2002 (%) 3-27 Table 4.3.1 Screening Results for Design Options by Product Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-19 Table 5.2.1 Manufacturer Gross Margins and Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-4 Table 5.2.2 Manufacturer Markups andWeights from Five Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . 5-5 Table 5.3.1 Wholesale Expenses and Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-7 Table 5.3.2 Contractor Expenses and Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-10 Table 5.3.3 Contractor Expenses and Baseline Markups by Market Type. . . . . . . . . . 5-11 Table 5.3.4 Incremental Markups by Contractor Size and Market Type . . . . . . . . . . . 5-12 Table 5.4.1 Builder Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-13 Table 5.6.1 Distribution of Sales Tax Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-15 Table 5.7.1 Summary of Markups on Residential Furnaces and Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . 5-17 Table 6.3.1 Features of Baseline Models by Product Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3 Table 6.4.1 Gaps in Efficiency Levels of Units Selected for Teardown . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-7 Table 6.4.2 Ranking of Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-8 Table 6.4.3 Cost Model Outsourcing Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-13 Table 6.4.4 Cost Model Assumptions on Outsourced Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-14 Table 6.4.5 Greenfield Facility Specifications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-15 Table 6.4.6 Greenfield Facility Production Cost Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-15 Table 6.4.7 Annual Production Volume Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-16 Table 6.4.8 Degree of Uncertainty for Main Variable Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-17 Table 6.4.9 Manufacturing Parameter Ranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-18 Table 6.5.1 Fraction of Models Requiring a Category III Venting System . . . . . . . . . 6-25 Table 6.5.2 Installation Model, Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Weighting Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-28 Table 6.5.3 Master Bill of Materials for AllAppliance Installation Configurations . . 6-28 Table 6.5.4 Material and Labor Cost Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-29 Table 6.5.5 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace, Installation Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-30 Table 6.5.6 Comparison of Installation Model, GRI, NRCanada, and Wisconsin Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-31 Table 6.5.7 Comparison of Incremental Installation Cost for 90 percent AFUE Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-32 Table 6.5.8 Installation Cost for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces ($) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-34 Table 6.5.9 Installation Cost for Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-35 Table 6.5.10 Installation Cost for Oil-Fired Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-36 Table 6.5.11 Installation Cost for Hot-Water Gas Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-37 Table 6.5.12 Installation Cost for Hot-Water Oil-fired Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-37 Table 6.6.1 Annualized Maintenance Cost for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . 6-381-xvi Table 6.7.1 Fuel-Efficiency Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-40 Table 6.7.2 Efficiency Levels with Less Than 3-year Payback Period Using DOE Test Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-42 Table 7.3.1 Characteristics of Basic Furnace Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-3 Table 7.3.2 Virtual Model Furnaces: Capacity and Airflow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4 Table 7.3.3 Relevant Sizes of Virtual Models for Non-Weatherized and Weatherized Gas Furnaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-5 Table 7.3.4 Relevant Sizes of Virtual Models for Mobile Home Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . 7-5 Table 7.3.5 Relevant Sizes of Virtual Models for Oil-Fired Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-5 Table 7.3.6 Assigned Blower Size by Airflow Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-6 Table 7.3.7 Assigned Motor Size by Airflow Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-6 Table 7.3.8 Supply-Air Outlet Area (in Square Feet) for Virtual Non-Condensing Gas Furnace Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-10 Table 7.3.9 Supply-Air Outlet Area (in Square Feet) for Virtual Condensing Gas Furnace Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-10 Table 7.3.10 Values for Delay and Ignition Times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-11 Table 7.9.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-26 Table 7.9.2 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-28 Table 7.9.3 Mobile Home Furnace Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-30 Table 7.9.4 Oil Furnace Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-32 Table 7.9.5 Hot-Water Gas Boiler Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-34 Table 7.9.6 Oil Boiler Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-36 Table 8.2.1 Criteria for Selection of RECS Household Data by Product Class . . . . . . 8-12 Table 8.2.2 New Construction Share by Product Class for Residential Furnaces and Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-14 Table 8.3.1 Manufacturing Cost Scalars for Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-17 Table 8.3.2 Furnace and Boiler Lifetimes Used in the LCC Analysis (years) . . . . . . . 8-22 Table 8.3.3 After-Tax Real Interest or Return Rates for Household Debt and Equity Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-24 Table 8.3.4 Summary of Inputs Used in the LCC and Payback Period Analysis . . . . . 8-26 Table 8.4.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces Using Installation Model Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-28 Table 8.4.2 LCC and PBP Results for Weatherized Gas Furnaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-31 Table 8.4.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-33 Table 8.4.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil-Fired Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-35 Table 8.4.5 LCC and PBP Results for Hot-Water Gas Boilers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-37 Table 8.4.6 LCC and PBP Results for Hot-Water Oil-fired Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-39 Table 9.2.1 Expected Equipment Lifetime (years) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-2 Table 9.2.2 Conversions to Natural Gas From Oil and Electric Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-3 Table 9.2.3 Replacement and Conversion Estimates for 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-51-xvii Table 9.3.1 Change in Energy and Equipment Price Indices and Gas Furnace Market Share in New Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-8 Table 9.3.2 Estimated Elasticity of Gas Furnace Market Share in New Housing in Response to Change in Fuel and Equipment Price Indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-9 Table 9.3.3 Shipments of Non-Weatherized and Weatherized Gas Furnaces to New Housing for Different Efficiency Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-10 Table 9.3.4 Shipments of Mobile Home Gas Furnaces for Different Efficiency Levels 9-10 Table 9.3.5 Projected Shipments to New Housing in Other Product Classes (million) 9-11 Table 9.4.1 Total Shipments of Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces for Different Efficiency Levels (million per year) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-12 Table 9.4.2 Total Shipments in Other Product Classes (million per year) . . . . . . . . . . 9-12 Table 10.2.1 Trend of the Market Share of Condensing Furnaces in Total Shipments of Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces ( percent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-4 Table 10.2.2 Base Case Forecast AFUE of Other Product Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-4 Table 10.2.3 NES and NPV Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-6 Table 10.4.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces Using 7% Discount Rate . . . 10-12 Table 10.4.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces Using 7% Discount Rate . . . . . . . 10-13 Table 10.4.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces Using 7% Discount Rate . . . . . . 10-13 Table 10.4.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Oil-Fired Furnaces Using 7% Discount Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-13 Table 10.4.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Hot Water Gas Boilers Using 7% Discount Rate . . . . . . . . . . 10-14 Table 10.4.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Boilers Using 7% Discount Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-14 Table 10.4.7 Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces Using 3% Discount Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-15 Table 10.4.8 Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces Using 3% Discount Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-15 Table 10.4.9 Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces Using 3% Discount Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-15 Table 10.4.10 Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Oil-fired Furnaces Using 3% Discount Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-16 Table 10.4.11 Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value for Hot-Water Gas Boilers Using 3% Discount Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-16 Table 10.4.12 Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value for Hot-Water Oil-fired Boilers Using 3% Discount Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-171-xviii Table 1.1 Non-regulatory Alternatives to Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-1 Table 5.1.2.1 Disaggregated Costs and Expenses for Wholesalers ................. 5.1-2 Table 5.1.3.1 Disaggregated Costs and Expenses for Builders .................... 5.1-3 Table 5.1.4.1 Disaggregated Costs and Expenses for Contractors .................. 5.1-4 Table 5.1.5.1 Wholesale Baseline Markups by State ............................ 5.1-6 Table 5.1.5.2 Builder Baseline Markups by State .............................. 5.1-7 Table 5.1.5.3 Contractor Baseline Markups by State ............................ 5.1-9 Table 5.1.6.1 Fraction of Gas Furnace Shipments to New Construction ............ 5.1-10 Table 6.1.2.1 Specific Features for Each Product Class ........................ 6.1-2 Table 6.2.2.1 Six Common Vent and Vent Connector Configurations ............... 6.2-10 Table 6.2.2.2 Orphaned Water Heater Consumer Options (Unlined Masonry Vents) . . . 6.2-13 Table 6.2.2.3 Orphaned Water Heater Cost Adder Summary ...................... 6.2-13 Table 6.2.2.4 Results Table Format (Baseline Example) ......................... 6.2-14 Table 6.2.3.1 Original Results Summary ..................................... 6.2-15 Table 6.2.3.2 Format of 80% AFUE Baseline Trial Standard Level Results .......... 6.2-17 Table 6.2.3.3 Format of 81%A AFUE 2-stage Mod. Trial Standard Level Results ..... 6.2-17 Table 6.2.3.4 Format of 83% AFUE Stainless Steel Trial Standard Level Results ..... 6.2-18 Table 6.2.3.5 Format of 90%+ AFUE Condensing Trial Standard Level Results ...... 6.2-19 Table 6.2.3.6 Common Vent Diameters Calculated Using the NFGC ............... 6.2-20 Table 6.2.3.7 Nominal Tees and Elbows ...................................... 6.2-21 Table 6.2.3.8 Assumed Living Area Square Feet Ranges (NWGF) ................. 6.2-24 Table 6.2.3.9 Master BOM: Includes All Installation Configurations ............... 6.2-26 Table 6.2.3.10 2003 RS Means Crew Labor Rates ............................... 6.2-28 Table 6.2.3.11 RS Means Substitutions........................................ 6.2-29 Table 6.2.5.1 Overall Results for the Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Class........... 6.2-33 Table 6.2.5.2 Overall Results for the Gas Boiler Class ........................... 6.2-36 Table 6.2.5.3 Overall Results for the Oil Furnace Class .......................... 6.2-36 Table 6.2.5.4 Overall Results for the Oil Boiler Class ........................... 6.2-37 Table 6.2.6.1 Sensitivity Analysis Assumption Ranges .......................... 6.2-38 Table 6.2.7.1 Installation Data Comparison: GRI, Canadian, and WI ............... 6.2-44 Table 6.2.7.2 Incremental Installation Cost Data Comparison ..................... 6.2-45 Table 6.2.8.1 Year 2012 Chimney Relining Projections .......................... 6.2-48 Table 6.2.9.1 80% AFUE Baseline Installation Cost (NWGF) ..................... 6.2-49 Table 6.2.9.2 81%A AFUE 2-Stage Modulation Installation Cost (NWGF) .......... 6.2-49 Table 6.2.9.3 83% AFUE All Stainless Vent Installation Cost (NWGF) ............. 6.2-50 Table 6.2.9.4 90% AFUE Condensing Installation Cost (NWGF) .................. 6.2-50 Table 6.2.9.5 80% AFUE Baseline Installation Cost (Gas Boiler) .................. 6.2-51 Table 6.2.9.6 85% AFUE All Stainless Vent Installation Cost (Gas Boiler) .......... 6.2-51 Table 6.2.9.7 90% AFUE Condensing Installation Cost (Gas Boiler) ............... 6.2-52 Table 6.2.9.8 80% AFUE Baseline Installation Cost (Oil Furnace) ................. 6.2-531-xix Table 6.2.9.9 85% AFUE All Stainless Vent Installation Cost (Oil Furnace) ......... 6.2-53 Table 6.2.9.10 80% AFUE Baseline Installation Cost (Oil Boiler) .................. 6.2-54 Table 6.2.9.11 87% AFUE All Stainless Vent Installation Cost (Oil Boiler) ........... 6.2-54 Table 6.3.3.1 AFUE for Similar Single-Stage and Two-Stage Furnace Models Series . . 6-8 Table 6.3.4.1 Single-Stage Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-9 Table 6.3.4.2 Single-Stage Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-10 Table 6.3.4.3 Single-Stage Mobile Home Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-11 Table 6.3.4.4 Single-Stage Oil-Fired Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-11 Table 6.3.4.5 Single-Stage Hot-Water Gas Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-12 Table 6.3.4.6 Single-Stage Hot-Water Oil Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-12 Table 6.3.4.7 Two-Stage Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-13 Table 6.3.4.8 Two-Stage Mobile Home Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-13 Table 6.3.4.9 Two-Stage Hot-Water Oil Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-14 Table 6.3.4.10 Two-Stage Hot-Water Gas Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-14 Table 6.3.4.11 Two-Stage Hot-Water Oil Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-14 Table 6.4.1.1 Cost Table for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Installation Model) .... 6.4-2 Table 6.4.1.2 Energy and Economics Table for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Installation Model) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4-6 Table 6.4.1.3 Summary Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (NRCan) ...... 6.4-10 Table 6.4.1.4 Summary Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (GRI) ......... 6.4-14 Table 6.4.1.5 Cost Table for Weatherized Gas Furnaces ........................ 6.4-18 Table 6.4.1.6 Energy and Economics Table for Weatherized Gas Furnaces ......... 6.4-19 Table 6.4.1.7 Cost Table for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces ....................... 6.4-20 Table 6.4.1.8 Energy and Economics Table for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces ........ 6.4-21 Table 6.4.1.9 Cost Table for Oil-fired Furnaces ............................... 6.4-22 Table 6.4.1.10 Energy and Economics Table for Oil-fired Furnaces ................ 6.4-23 Table 6.4.1.11 Cost Table for Gas Boilers (Installation Model Data) ............... 6.4-24 Table 6.4.1.12 Energy and Economics Table for Gas Boilers (Installation Model Data) 6.4-25 Table 6.4.1.13 Cost Table for Gas Boilers (GRI Data) .......................... 6.4-26 Table 6.4.1.14 Energy and Economics Table for Gas Boilers (GRI Data) ............ 6.4-27 Table 6.4.1.15 Cost Table for Oil-fired Boilers ................................ 6.4-28 Table 6.4.1.16 Energy and Economics Table for Oil-fired Boilers ................. 6.4-29 Table 7.1.1 Furnace Data Table Field Names and Definitions ................... 7.1-5 Table 7.1.2 Pressure Table Field Names and Definitions ....................... 7.1-6 Table 7.1.3 Power Table Field Names and Definitions ......................... 7.1-7 Table 7.1.4 Series Table Field Names and Definitions ......................... 7.1-7 Table 7.1.5 Delay Times Table Field Names and Definitions .................... 7.1-7 Table 7.2.1 Amana Furnace Model Number Description ....................... 7.2-1 Table 7.2.2 Carrier Model Number Description .............................. 7.2-1 Table 7.2.3 ICP Model Number Description ................................. 7.2-21-xx Table 7.2.4 Goodman Model Number Description ............................ 7.2-2 Table 7.2.5 Lennox Model Number Description .............................. 7.2-2 Table 7.2.6 Armstrong Model Number Description ........................... 7.2-2 Table 7.2.7 Trane/American Standard Model Number Description ............... 7.2-3 Table 7.2.8 Rheem Non-Condensing Model Number Description ................ 7.2-3 Table 7.2.9 Rheem Condensing Model Number Description .................... 7.2-3 Table 7.2.10 York Furnace Model Number Description ......................... 7.2-4 Table 7.2.11 Nordyne Model Number Description ............................. 7.2-4 Table 7.3A.1 Models and Manufacturers of Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-3 Table 7.3A.2 Values of Input Capacity (kBtu/h) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-4 Table 7.3A.3 Values of Output (kBtu/h) Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-5 Table 7.3A.4 Values of Maximum CFM @ 0.5 in w.c. for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-6 Table 7.3A.5 Values of Low CFM @ 0.5 in w.c. for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-7 Table 7.3A.6 Values of Blower Size (diamX width) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-8 Table 7.3A.7 Values of Motor Size (HP) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-9 Table 7.3A.8 Number of Speed Taps for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-10 Table 7.3A.9 Values of Supply Air Outlet Area (sq.ft.) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-11 Table 7.3A.10 Values of AFUE for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-12 Table 7.3A.11 Values for Eae (kWh/y) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-13 Table 7.3A.12 Values of PE (W) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-14 Table 7.3A.13 Values of On-Delay (secs) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-15 Table 7.3A.14 Values of Off-Delay Time (secs) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-16 Table 7.3A.15 Values of Pre-Purge Time (secs) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-17 Table 7.3A.16 Values of Post-Purge Time (secs) for Non-Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-18 Table 7.3B.1 Models and Manufacturers of Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-19 Table 7.3B.2 Values of Input Capacity (kBtu/h) for Condensing Basic Model1-xxi Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-20 Table 7.3B.3 Values of Output (kBtu/h) Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-21 Table 7.3B.4 Values of Maximum CFM @ 0.5 in w.c. for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-22 Table 7.3B.5 Values of Low CFM @ 0.5 in w.c. for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-23 Table 7.3B.6 Values of Blower Size (diam X width) for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-24 Table 7.3B.7 Values of Motor Size (HP) for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-25 Table 7.3B.8 Number of Speed Taps for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-26 Table 7.3B.9 Values of Supply Air Outlet Area (sq.ft.) for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-27 Table 7.3B.10 Values of AFUE for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-28 Table 7.3B.11 Values for Eae (kWh/y) for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-29 Table 7.3B.12 Values of PE (W) for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-30 Table 7.3B.13 Values of On-Delay (secs) for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-31 Table 7.3B.14 Values of Off-Delay Time (secs) for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-32 Table 7.3B.15 Values of Pre-Purge Time (secs) for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-33 Table 7.3B.16 Values of Post-Purge Time (secs) for Condensing Basic Model Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3-34 Table 7.4.1 Coefficients for Static Pressure as a Function of Airflow .............. 7.4-6 Table 7.5.1.1 Models Used For Virtual Furnace Blowers ......................... 7.5-1 Table 7.5.2.1 Coefficients to CalculatePressure for Different Blower Sizes ........... 7.5-4 Table 7.5.3.1 Coefficients to Calculate Shaft Power for Different Blower Sizes ........ 7.5-5 Table 7.6.2.2 Coefficients for OverallAir-Moving Efficiency of Condensing Generic Model Furnaces ........................................ 7.7-6 Table 7.7.3.1 QOUTand Corresponding DHR values .............................. 7.7-5 Table 8.3.2.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces Using GRI Installation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3-11-xxii Table 8.3.2.2 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces Using NRCan Installation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3-4 Table 8.3.3.1 LCC and PBP Results for Hot-Water Gas Boilers Using GRI Installation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3-7 Table 8.4.2.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) . 8.4-3 Table 8.4.2.2 LCC and PBP Results for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) ..... 8.4-6 Table 8.4.2.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High Growth) ........ 8.4-8 Table 8.4.2.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth) ............... 8.4-10 Table 8.4.2.5 LCC and PBP Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth) ................ 8.4-12 Table 8.4.2.6 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth) ................. 8.4-14 Table 8.4.3.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) 8.4-16 Table 8.4.3.2 LCC and PBP for Weatherized Furnaces (Low Growth) .............. 8.4-19 Table 8.4.3.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low Growth) ...... 8.4-21 Table 8.4.3.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (Low Growth) ............... 8.4-23 Table 8.4.3.5 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (Low Growth) ................. 8.4-25 Table 8.5.3.1 Incremental Manufacturing Cost of Electricity-Efficiency Design Options for Furnaces ..................................... 8.5-2 Table 8.5.3.2 Incremental Manufacturing Cost of Electricity-Efficiency Design Options for Hot-Water Boilers and Oil Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-2 Table 8.5.4.1 Electricity-Efficiency Design Options for Gas Furnaces ............... 8.5-3 Table 8.5.4.2 Electricity-Efficiency Design Options for Oil-Fired Furnaces and Hot-Water Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-3 Table 8.5.7.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Use ......................... 8.5-6 Table 8.5.7.2 Mobile Home Furnace Energy Use ............................... 8.5-10 Table 8.5.7.3 Weatherized Furnaces Energy Use ............................... 8.5-13 Table 8.5.7.4 Oil-Furnace Energy Use ....................................... 8.5-16 Table 8.5.7.5 Gas Boiler Energy Use ........................................ 8.5-19 Table 8.5.7.6 Oil Boiler Energy Use ......................................... 8.5-21 Table 8.5.8.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Including Electricity-Efficiency Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-23 Table 8.5.8.2 LCC and PBP Results for Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Including Electricity-Efficiency Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-26 Table 8.5.8.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces, Including Electricity-Efficiency Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-28 Table 8.5.8.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil-Fired Furnaces, Including Electricity-Efficiency Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-30 Table 8.5.8.5 LCC and PBP Results for Hot-Water Gas Boilers, Including Electricity-Efficiency Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-32 Table 8.5.8.6 LCC and PBP Results for Hot-Water Oil-fired Boilers, Including Electricity-Efficiency Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5-34 Table 8.7.2.1 Coefficients for Blower Speed Equation ............................ 8.7-21-xxiii Table 8.7.2.2 Coefficients for Blower Shaft Power Equation ....................... 8.7-3 Table 8.7.3.1 Coefficients for Equation of Yat 76% Efficiency as a Function of X ..... 8.7-7 Table 8.7.3.2 Coefficients for Equation of Logistic Transform of Motor Efficiency .... 8.7-10 Table 8.8.2.1 Coefficients for Shaft Power and Static Pressure at Constant Speed ...... 8.8-3 Table 8.8.4.1 Scalars for Airflow and Shaft Power for the Backward-Inclined Blowers . . 8.8-4 Table 8.8.5.1 SEF for BC/ECM+ Blowers in Virtual Model Furnaces ................ 8.8-6 Table 8.8.6.1 Coefficients for Blower Speed Equation ............................ 8.8-8 Table 8.8.6.2 Coefficients for Blower Shaft Power Equation ....................... 8.8-9 Table 10.1.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (GRI Installation Costs) 10.1-2 Table 10.1.2.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (NRCan Installation Costs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1-3 Table 10.1.2.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Gas Boilers (GRI Installation Costs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1-5 Table 10.1.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) ....... 10.1-6 Table 10.1.3.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) ........... 10.1-6 Table 10.1.3.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces (High Growth) .......... 10.1-7 Table 10.1.3.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Oil-Fired Furnaces (High Growth) . . . 10.1-7 Table 10.1.3.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Hot Water Gas Boilers (High Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1-8 Table 10.1.3.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (High Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1-8 Table 10.1.3.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) ....... 10.1-9 Table 10.1.3.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) ........... 10.1-9 Table 10.1.3.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) .......... 10.1-9 Table 10.1.3.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Oil-Fired Furnaces (Low Growth) . . 10.1-10 Table 10.1.3.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Hot Water Gas Boilers (Low Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1-10 Table 10.1.3.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (Low Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1-101-xxiv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1.1 Analytic Framework for Residential and Boilers Rulemaking . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3 Figure 3.1.1 Saturation of Space Heating Equipment in U.S. Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1 Figure 3.2.1 Distribution of Non-Weatherized,Gas Furnace Models by Input Capacity . . . 3-9 Figure 3.2.2 Distribution of Weatherized, Gas Furnace Models by Input Capacity . . . . . . . 3-9 Figure 3.2.3 Distribution of Non-Weatherized, Oil-Fired Furnace Models by Input Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-10 Figure 3.2.4 Distribution of Electricity Consumption Values for Non-Weatherized, Gas Furnace Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11 Figure 3.2.5 Number of Hot-Water Oil and Gas Boiler Models by Input Capacity . . . . . . 3-14Figure 3.2.6 Distribution of Electricity Consumption Values for HotWater Boiler Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-15 Figure 3.3.1 Distribution of Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Models by Efficiency . . . . . . 3-18 Figure 3.3.2 Distribution of Weatherized Gas Furnace Models by Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . 3-18 Figure 3.3.3 Distribution of Oil-Fired Furnace Models by Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-19 Figure 3.3.4 Distribution of Mobile Home Furnace Models by Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-19 Figure 3.3.5 Distribution of Efficiency Values for Hot-Water Boiler Models . . . . . . . . . . 3-20 Figure 3.3.6 Distribution of Efficiency Values for Steam Boiler Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-20 Figure 3.4.1 Total Gas Furnace Shipments, 1975-2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-21 Figure 3.4.2 Estimated Furnace Shipment to Mobile Homes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-24 Figure 3.4.3 Shipments of Oil-Fired Furnaces, 1975-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-24 Figure 3.4.4 Shipments of Residential Boilers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-25 Figure 5.1.1 Distribution Channel for Residential Furnaces and Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1 Figure 5.1.2 Distribution Channel for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-2 Figure 5.3.1 Wholesaler Baseline Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-9 Figure 5.3.2 Wholesaler Incremental Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-9 Figure 5.3.3 Contractor Baseline Prob.Distribution, New Constr.Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-13 Figure 5.3.4 Contractor Incremental Markup Prob. Distribution, New Constr. Market . . . 5-13 Figure 5.4.1 Builder Baseline Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-14 Figure 5.4.2 Builder Incremental Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-14 Figure 6.4.1 Probability Distribution for the Production Cost of an Equipment Sample . . 6-19 Figure 6.4.2 Importance of Input Parameters for Production Costs for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-19 Figure 6.4.3 Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . 6-20 Figure 6.4.4 Incremental Manufacturing Costs of Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . 6-21 Figure 6.4.5 Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Oil-Fired Furnaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-21 Figure 6.4.6 Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Gas-Fired Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-22 Figure 6.4.7 Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Oil-Fired Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-22 Figure 6.4.8 Incremental Manufacturing Costs of Mobile Home Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . 6-23 Figure 6.4.1 Probability Distribution for the Production Cost of an Equipment Sample . . 6-211-xxv Figure 6.4.2 Importance of Input Parameters for Production Costs for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-21 Figure 6.4.3 Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . 6-22 Figure 6.4.4 Incremental Manufacturing Costs of Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . 6-23 Figure 6.4.5 Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Oil-Fired Furnaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-23 Figure 6.4.6 Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Gas-Fired Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-24 Figure 6.4.7 Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Oil-Fired Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-24 Figure 6.4.8 Incremental Manufacturing Costs of Mobile Home Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . 6-25 Figure 7.3.1 Number of GAMA Listed Furnace Models by Input Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-3 Figure 7.3.2 Supply-Air Outlet Area for Non-Condensing Natural Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . 7-8 Figure 7.3.3 Supply-Air Outlet Area for Condensing Natural Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-9 Figure 7.4.1 Percent of Existing Furnaces by Input Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-12 Figure 7.5.1 Sample of System Curves with a Typical Fan Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-16 Figure 7.5.2 Fan Curves for 800 cfm Virtual Furnace Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-17 Figure 7.5.3 Fan Curves for 1200 cfm Virtual Furnace Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-17 Figure 7.5.4 Fan Curves for 1600 cfm Virtual Furnace Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-17 Figure 7.5.5 Fan Curves for 2000 cfm Virtual Furnace Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-17 Figure 7.5.6 Overall Air-Moving Efficiency of Existing Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-19 Figure 7.5.7 Overall Air-Moving Efficiency ofNon-Condensing Virtual Furnace Models 7-20 Figure 7.5.8 Overall Air-Moving Efficiency of Condensing Virtual Furnace Models . . . . 7-20 Figure 7.9.1 Range of Annual Gas Use, Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-26 Figure 7.9.2 Range of Annual Gas Usage by Region, 90 percent AFUE, Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-27 Figure 7.9.3 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . 7-27 Figure 7.9.4 Annual Gas Use, Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-29 Figure 7.9.5 Winter Electricity Use, Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-29 Figure 7.9.6 Annual Gas Use, Mobile Home Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-30 Figure 7.9.7 Winter Electricity Use, Mobile Home Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-31 Figure 7.9.8 Range of Annual Oil Use, Oil Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-33 Figure 7.9.9 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Oil Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-33 Figure 7.9.10 Range of Annual Gas Use, Hot-Water Gas Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-35 Figure 7.9.11 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Hot-Water Gas Boilers . . . . . . . . . . 7-35 Figure 7.9.12 Range of Annual Oil Use, Hot-Water Oil Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-37 Figure 7.9.13 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Hot-Water Oil Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-37 Figure 8.2.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace LCC Analysis–Efficiency Levels and Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-5 Figure 8.2.2 Weatherized Gas Furnace LCC Analysis– Efficiency Levels and Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-6 Figure 8.2.3 Mobile Home Gas Furnace LCC Analysis–Efficiency Levels and Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-7 Figure 8.2.4 Oil Furnace LCC Analysis–Efficiency Levels and Design Options . . . . . . . . . 8-8 Figure 8.2.5 Hot-Water Oil Boiler LCC Analysis–Efficiency Levels and Design Options . 8-91-xxvi Figure 8.2.6 Hot-Water Gas Boiler LCC Analysis–Efficiency Levels and Design Options 8-10 Figure 8.3.1 First Cost for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-15 Figure 8.3.2 Manufacturing Costs ($) for Baseline Model Non-Weatherized Furnaces by Input Capacity and Airflow Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-16 Figure 8.3.3 Example RECS97 Household: Billing Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-20 Figure 8.3.4 Example RECS97 Household: Regression Lines, Slopes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-20 Figure 8.4.1 Range of LCC Savings for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-29 Figure 8.4.2 LCC Savings for Each Census Division for the 90 percent AFUE Condensing Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-30 Figure 8.4.3 LCC Savings Ranges by Design Option for Weatherized Gas Furnaces . . . . 8-32 Figure 8.4.4 LCC Savings Ranges by Design Option for Mobile Home Furnace . . . . . . . . 8-34 Figure 8.4.5 LCC Savings Ranges by Design Option for Oil-Fired Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . 8-36 Figure 8.4.6 LCC Savings Ranges by Design Option for Hot-Water Gas Boilers . . . . . . . 8-38 Figure 8.4.7 LCC Savings Ranges by Design Options for Hot-Water Oil-Fired Boilers . . 8-40 Figure 10.2.1 NES and NPV Process and Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-2 Figure 10.3.1 Non-discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases and Annual Operating Cost Savings at the National Level for the 81 percent AFUE Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-11 Figure 6.1.3.1 Bill of Materials Sample ........................................ 6.6-5 Figure 6.1.5.1 Cost Model Structure ........................................... 6.6-8 Figure 6.1.5.2 Sample of Global Controls Sheet.................................. 6.6-9 Figure 6.1.5.3 Subassembly Breakdown ........................................ 6.6-9 Figure 6.1.5.4 Site Table Spreadsheet......................................... 6.6-10 Figure 6.1.5.5 Components Sheet ............................................ 6.6-10 Figure 6.1.5.6 In-house Fabrication Process .................................... 6.6-11 Figure 6.1.5.7 Raw Materials Sheet .......................................... 6.6-11 Figure 6.1.6.1 Standard Deviations of Manufacturing Costs ....................... 6.6-13 Figure 6.2.2.1 Common Venting Options for a Typical U.S. Single Family Home ....... 6.2-2 Figure 6.2.2.2 Year 2003 Furnace Category Distribution........................... 6.2-3 Figure 6.2.2.3 Illustration of Lined Masonry Chimney Vented Installations ............ 6.2-6 Figure 6.2.2.4 Illustration of Type B Double Wall Metal Vented Installations .......... 6.2-6 Figure 6.2.2.5 Illustration of HorizontalSidewall Plastic Vented Installations .......... 6.2-7 Figure 6.2.2.6 Approximate Chimney Size Distribution: Existing Housing Stock ....... 6.2-9 Figure 6.2.3.1 Model Structure Overview (Illustration Only) ...................... 6.2-16 Figure 6.2.3.2 Furnace Size Distribution ...................................... 6.2-21 Figure 6.2.3.3 Average Ceiling Height ........................................ 6.2-22 Figure 6.2.3.4 Number of Floor in a Dwelling .................................. 6.2-23 Figure 6.2.3.5 Basement Types .............................................. 6.2-23 Figure 6.2.3.6 NWGF, 1-Floor Living Area (LCC 1997 RECS) .................... 6.2-25 Figure 6.2.3.1 81% AFUE: Breakdown of Installation Cost Deltas (81%-80%) ........ 6.2-33 Figure 6.2.5.2 83% AFUE: Breakdown of Installation Cost Deltas (83%-80%) ........ 6.2-341-xxvii Figure 6.2.5.3 90% AFUE: Breakdown of Installation Cost Deltas (90%-80%) ........ 6.2-35 Figure 6.2.6.1 81%A AFUE Two-stage Modulation Incremental Cost Distributions .... 6.2-39 Figure 6.2.6.2 83% AFUE All Stainless Incremental Cost Distributions .............. 6.2-39 Figure 6.2.6.3 90% AFUE Condensing Incremental Cost Distributions .............. 6.2-40 Figure 6.2.6.4 Baseline, 81%A, 83%, and 90% Tornado Charts .................... 6.2-41 Figure 6.2.6.5 Regional Variation Effects on Incremental Costs .................... 6.2-42 Figure 6.2.6.6 Masonry Relining Effects on Incremental Costs ..................... 6.2-43 Figure 7.1.1 Map Showing Relationship Between the Furnace Data Table, Pressure Table, and Power Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1-3 Figure 7.1.2 Map Showing Relationship Between the Furnace Data Table, Series Table, and Delay Times Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1-3 Figure 7.1.3 Map Showing Relationship Between the GAMA Directory April 2002 Table Model Translation Table, and the Furnace Data Table ............ 7.1-4 Figure 7.1.4 Map Showing Relationship Between the Series Table, References Table, and Bibliographies Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1-4 Figure 7.3.1 Number of Non-Weatherized Furnace Models by Input Capacity ........ 7.3-2 Figure 7.5.1.1 Blower Fan Curves for Lau #DD9-8A ......................... 7.5-2 Figure 7.5.1.2 Blower Fan Curves for Lau #DD10-8A ........................ 7.5-2 Figure 7.5.1.3 Blower Fan Curves for Lau #DD10-10A ....................... 7.5-3 Figure 7.5.1.4 Blower Fan Curves for Lau #DD11-10AT ...................... 7.5-3 Figure 7.6.1.1 Overall Air-Moving Efficiency (non-condensing, cooling mode) ........ 7.6-2 Figure 7.6.1.2 Overall Air-Moving Efficiency(non-condensing, low-fire mode) ........ 7.6-2 Figure 7.6.1.3 Overall Air Moving Efficiency (non-condensing, heating mode) ......... 7.6-3 Figure 7.6.1.4 Overall Air-Moving Efficiency (condensing, cooling mode) ............ 7.6-3 Figure 7.6.1.5 Overall Air Moving Efficiency (condensing, heating mode) ............ 7.6-4 Figure 7.6.1.6 Overall Air-Moving Efficiency (condensing, low-fire mode) ............ 7.6-4 Figure 7.7.3.1 XRand XHversus Balance-Point Temperature for Modulating Furnaces and Boilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7-4 Figure 8.2.1.1 Distribution of New Home Mortgage Nominal Interest Rates ........... 8.2-1 Figure 8.2.2.1 Distribution of Second Mortgage Nominal Interest Rates............... 8.2-2 Figure 8.2.2.2 Distribution of Credit Card Nominal Interest Rates ................... 8.2-3 Figure 8.2.2.3 Distribution of CD’s Nominal Interest Rates ........................ 8.2-3 Figure 8.2.2.4 Distribution of T-Bill Nominal Interest Rates ........................ 8.2-4 Figure 8.2.2.5 Distribution of Corporate Bond Nominal Interest Rates ................ 8.2-4 Figure 8.2.2.6 Distribution of S&P 500 Nominal Return Rates ...................... 8.2-5 Figure 8.3.2.1 National LCC Savings for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Using GRI Data 8.3-3 Figure 8.3.2.2 National LCC Savings for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces,1-xxviii Using NRCan Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3-6 Figure 8.3.3.1 National LCC Savings for Gas Boilers, Using GRI Data ............... 8.3-8 Figure 8.4.1.1 Residential Natural Gas Price Forecast (AEO 2003) ................. 8.4-1 Figure 8.4.1.2 Residential Electricity Price Forecast (AEO 2003) .................. 8.4-2 Figure 8.4.1.3 Residential Oil Fuel Price Forecast (AEO 2003) .................... 8.4-2 Figure 8.4.2.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-5 Figure 8.4.2.2 National LCC Savings Results for Weatherized Furnaces (High Growth) 8.4-7 Figure 8.4.2.3 National LCC Savings Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High Growth) 8.4-9 Figure 8.4.2.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth) ....... 8.4-11 Figure 8.4.2.5 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth) ........ 8.4-13 Figure 8.4.2.6 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth) ........ 8.4-15 Figure 8.4.3.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-18 Figure 8.4.3.2 National LCC Savings Results for Weatherized Furnaces (Low Growth) 8.4-20 Figure 8.4.3.3 National LCC Savings Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low Growth) 8.4-22 Figure 8.4.3.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (Low Growth) ....... 8.4-24 Figure 8.4.3.5 National LCC Savings Result for Oil Boilers (Low Growth) ......... 8.4-26 Figure 8.4.3.6 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (Low Growth) ........ 8.4-28 Figure 8.5.7.1 Range of Annual Gas Use, Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces ........... 8.5-8 Figure 8.5.7.2 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces ...... 8.5-8 Figure 8.5.7.3 Range of Summer Electricity Use, Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces ..... 8.5-9 Figure 8.5.7.4 Range of Annual Gas Use, Mobile Home Furnaces ................. 8.5-11 Figure 8.5.7.5 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Mobile Home Furnaces ............ 8.5-11 Figure 8.5.7.6 Range of Summer Electricity Use, Mobile Home Furnaces ........... 8.5-12 Figure 8.5.7.7 Range of Gas Use, Weatherized Gas Furnaces..................... 8.5-14 Figure 8.5.7.8 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Weatherized Gas Furnaces ......... 8.5-14 Figure 8.5.7.9 Range of Summer Electricity Use, Weatherized Furnaces ............ 8.5-15 Figure 8.5.7.10 Range of Oil Use, Oil-Fired Furnaces ........................... 8.5-17 Figure 8.5.7.11 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Oil-Fired Furnaces................ 8.5-17 Figure 8.5.7.12 Range of Summer Electricity Use, Oil-Fired Furnaces .............. 8.5-18 Figure 8.5.7.13 Range of Gas Use, Hot Water Gas Boilers ........................ 8.5-20 Figure 8.5.7.14 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Hot Water Gas Boilers ............ 8.5-20 Figure 8.5.7.15 Range of Annual Oil Use, Hot-Water Oil Boilers .................. 8.5-22 Figure 8.5.7.16 Range of Winter Electricity Use, Hot-Water Oil Boilers ............. 8.5-22 Figure 8.5.8.1 Range of LCC Savings byDesign Option for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces ............................................... 8.5-25 Figure 8.5.8.2 Range of LCC Savings by DesignOption for Weatherized Gas Furnaces 8.5-27 Figure 8.5.8.3 Range of LCC Savings by Design Option for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces 8.5-29 Figure 8.5.8.4 Range of LCC Savings by Design Option for Oil-Fired Furnaces ...... 8.5-31 Figure 8.5.8.5 Range of LCC Savings by Design Option for Hot-Water Gas Boilers . . . 8.5-33 Figure 8.5.8.6 Range of LCC Savings by Design Option for Hot-Water Oil-Fired Boilers8.5-351-xxix Figure 8.6.3.1 Schematic of Airflow Apparatus – from Figure 12 of AMCA 210 ........ 8.6-6 Figure 8.6.3.2 Airflow Measurement Apparatus at Energy System Laboratory ......... 8.6-7 Figure 8.6.4.1 Airflow versus Static Pressurefor Three Motor/Blower Combinations at Highest Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6-9 Figure 8.6.4.2 Comparison with Manufacturer's Reported Airflow versus Static Pressure Data at the Highest Blower Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6-10 Figure 8.6.4.3 Airflow Efficiency versus Static Pressure at Highest Blower Speed Setting 8.6-11 Figure 8.6.5.1 Blower Speed versus Airflow ................................... 8.6-12 Figure 8.7.3.1 Iso-Efficiency Lines for GE ECM 2.3 ............................ 8.7-4 Figure 8.7.3.2 Plot of Iso-Efficiency Lines Against Speed and Shaft Power .......... 8.7-5 Figure 8.7.3.3 Plot of Rotated Iso-Efficiency Lines ............................. 8.7-6 Figure 8.7.3.4 Residuals of Y After SubtractingPredicted 76% Efficiency Y Values . . . 8.7-8 Figure 8.7.3.5 Fit of Transformed Efficiency to Difference between Y and 76% Efficiency Y Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.7-9 Figure 8.7.4.1 Comparison of Reported to Estimated Blower Motor Input Power ..... 8.7-11 Figure 8.8.2.1 Pressure and Shaft Power versus Airflow at Constant Speed ............ 8.8-2 Figure 8.8.5.1 SEF Versus Nominal Airflow for Virtual Model Furnaces ............. 8.8-6 Figure 8.8.7.1 Efficiencies and Operating Range of Prototype Motor ................ 8.8-10 Figure 10.1.2.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces Installation Cost Scenarios (Quads) . . 10.1-2 Figure 10.1.2.2 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces Installation Cost Scenarios (NPV) . . . 10.1-3 Figure 10.1.2.3 Gas Boiler Installation Cost Scenarios (Quads) .................. 10.1-4 Figure 10.1.2.4 Gas Boiler Installation Cost Scenarios (NPV).................... 10.1-5 Figure 10.1.4.1 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (Quads) ........ 10.1-11 Figure 10.1.4.2 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces Energy Price Scenarios (Quads) . . . 10.1-12 Figure 10.1.4.3 Mobile Home Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (Quads) .......... 10.1-12 Figure 10.1.4.4 Oil Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (Quads) ................... 10.1-13 Figure 10.1.4.5 Oil Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (Quads) ..................... 10.1-13 Figure 10.1.4.6 Gas Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (Quads) .................... 10.1-14 Figure 10.1.4.7 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ..... 10.1-14 Figure 10.1.4.8 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ......... 10.1-15 Figure 10.1.4.9 Mobile Home Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ................... 10.1-15 Figure 10.1.4.10 Oil Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) .................... 10.1-16 Figure 10.1.4.11 Gas Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ..................... 10.1-16 Figure 10.1.4.12 Oil Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ...................... 10.1-17