Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition, Reference case

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and Disposition 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

 Crude Oil

 Domestic Crude Production 1/ 5.474001 5.666 6.335 6.8267 7.173943 7.286415 7.519073

 Alaska 0.599 0.57 0.53 0.5217 0.481603 0.458738 0.474167

 Lower 48 States 4.875 5.096 5.805 6.305 6.692339 6.827678 7.044907

 Net Imports 9.171 8.888 8.508 8.032 7.32803 7.332729 7.075791

 Gross Imports 9.213 8.935 8.555 8.079 7.32803 7.332729 7.075791

 Exports 0.042 0.047 0.047 0.047 0 0 0

 Other Crude Supply 2/ 0.073 0.26 0.116 0.094 0 0 0

 Total Crude Supply 14.718001 14.814001 14.959001 14.9527 14.501972 14.619144 14.594865

 Other Petroleum Supply 3.41 3.018 2.564 2.645 3.360718 3.535699 3.668958

 Natural Gas Plant Liquids 2.074 2.216 2.364 2.367 2.776955 2.84403 2.925745

 Net Product Imports 0.294 -0.304 -0.878 -0.791 -0.517715 -0.405056 -0.342757

 Gross Refined Product Imports 3/ 1.232 1.152 0.736 0.849 1.377169 1.472459 1.507805

 Unfinished Oil Imports 0.606 0.687 0.612 0.603 0.597638 0.592206 0.585774

 Blending Component Imports 0.741 0.718 0.647 0.63 0.708819 0.682419 0.675269

 Exports 2.285 2.861 2.873 2.873 3.201341 3.152139 3.111604

 Refinery Processing Gain 4/ 1.068 1.076 1.078 1.069 1.101478 1.096726 1.08597

 Product Stock Withdrawal -0.026 0.03 0 0 0 0 0

 Other Non-petroleum Supply 1.027659 1.085886 1.093547 1.137213 1.278595 1.304519 1.341194

 Supply from Renewable Sources 0.862659 0.903886 0.910547 0.954213 1.058459 1.075992 1.10182

 Ethanol 0.842427 0.841899 0.843364 0.865514 0.963535 0.979738 1.003512

 Domestic Production 0.8674 0.9086 0.8662 0.8691 0.916642 0.93134 0.946712

 Net Imports -0.024973 -0.066701 -0.022836 -0.003586 0.046893 0.048397 0.056799

 Biodiesel 0.017038 0.060692 0.063301 0.081957 0.086994 0.087013 0.083644

 Domestic Production 0.0224 0.0631 0.068 0.082255 0.076302 0.076372 0.072992

 Net Imports -0.005362 -0.002408 -0.004699 -0.000299 0.010691 0.010642 0.010651

 Other Biomass-derived Liquids 5/ 0.003194 0.001295 0.003881 0.006743 0.00793 0.009241 0.014664

 Liquids from Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Liquids from Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Other 6/ 0.165 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.220136 0.228527 0.239374

 Total Primary Supply 7/ 19.155663 18.917889 18.616545 18.734913 19.141285 19.459364 19.605019

 Liquid Fuels Consumption

 by Fuel

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases 2.265 2.304 2.293 2.347 2.456106 2.603635 2.67021

 E85 8/ 0.004184 0.0334 0.006537 0.011477 0.066613 0.080251 0.090541

 Motor Gasoline 9/ 8.991912 8.744316 8.7313 8.728016 8.604835 8.555319 8.517118

 Jet Fuel 10/ 1.432 1.425 1.413 1.412 1.46827 1.475324 1.483567

 Distillate Fuel Oil 11/ 3.8 3.899 3.781 3.851 4.154938 4.290189 4.346787

 of which: Diesel 3.316 3.506 3.4 3.463 3.676661 3.809688 3.875721

 Diesel (bill gal) 50.87 53.78 52.16 53.12 56.40 58.44 59.46

 Residual Fuel Oil 0.535 0.461 0.398 0.397 0.501163 0.504445 0.505727

 Other 12/ 2.142013 2.080026 2.024002 2.02 1.893972 1.952806 1.996013

 by Sector

 Residential and Commercial 1.064198 1.059186 1.0082 1.051648 1.04155 1.047294 1.040315

 Industrial 13/ 4.484999 4.425945 4.389205 4.40761 4.473225 4.706417 4.828253

 Transportation 13.572014 13.630267 13.449291 13.443385 13.538304 13.615271 13.652802

 Electric Power 14/ 0.171672 0.131123 0.093084 0.09238 0.092848 0.092994 0.0886

 Total 19.170109 18.946743 18.646839 18.766493 19.145895 19.461967 19.609964

 Discrepancy 15/ -0.014446 -0.028854 -0.030294 -0.03158 -0.00461 -0.002604 -0.004946

Domestic Refinery Distillation Capacity 16/ 17.596001 17.705 17.507 17.507 17.507177 17.507177 17.507177

Capacity Utilization Rate (percent) 17/ 86 86 87 87 92.038261 92.781914 92.627815
Net Import Share of Product Supplied (perc

ent) 49.252621 45.009735 40.837147 38.629025 35.880032 35.904114 34.687469

Net Expenditures for Imports of Crude Oi

l and

 Petroleum Products (billion 2011 dollars) 248.258362 362.659027 323.72403 263.633728 255.478302 253.012451 247.410797

 1/ Includes lease condensate.

 2/ Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude product supplied.

 3/ Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohols.

 4/ The volumetric amount by which total output is greater than input due to the processing of crude oil into products which, in total,

have a lower specific gravity than the crude oil processed.

 5/ Includes pyrolysis oils, biomass-derived Fischer-Tropsch liquids, and renewable feedstocks used for the

on-site production of diesel and gasoline.

 6/ Includes domestic sources of other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers.

 7/ Total crude supply plus other petroleum supply plus other non-petroleum supply.

 8/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address

cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of

74 percent is used for this forecast.

 9/ Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline.

 10/ Includes only kerosene type.

 11/ Includes distillate fuel oil and kerosene from petroleum and biomass feedstocks.

 12/ Includes aviation gasoline, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas,

special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product supplied, methanol, and miscellaneous petroleum products.

 13/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems.

 14/ Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status.

 15/ Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses and gains.

 16/ End-of-year operable capacity.

 17/ Rate is calculated by dividing the gross annual input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units by their

operable refining capacity in barrels per calendar day.

 - - = Not applicable.

 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011

are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

 Sources: 2010 and 2011 product supplied based on: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA),

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012).

Other 2010 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2010, DOE/EIA-0340(2010)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2011).

Other 2011 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1 (Washington, DC, August 2012).

Projections: EIA, AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System.