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# OAR Box 1132 Prepped byCandice Davis



### Document

Number: 

# 41 ) ll-F- 5 Docket Number: 

# A-86-0 3

Printed 4/18/20082:24:46

PM Sheet 41 of 122ENVIRONMENTA L PROTECTIONAGENC Y P. 2

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# UJX U

EPA AIRPOCKE T j Regulatio n o f Fuel s an d Fue l Additives : Fue l Qualit yRegulation s fo r HighwayDiese l Fue l Sol d i n 199 3 an

d Late r Calenda r Year s

AGENCY : Environmenta l Protectio nAgency . ACTION : Notic e o f Propose d Rulemaking . SUMMARY : EPApropose s i ntoday' s notic e a ne wnationa l progra mo f diese l fue l qualit ycontrol . Th e propose d actio n woul d requir e refiner s t o reduc e th e sulfur conten t o f on-highwaydiese l fue l from curren t averag e level s o f approximatel y0.2 5 weigh t percen t t o level s no t exceeding 0.0 5 percen t b

yweight . Th e proposa l woul d als o reguir e tha t on-highwa

ydiese l fue l aromati c level s b e hel d a t o r belo wcurren t averag e level s (approximatel y3 4 percent) . Th e propose d mechanis mfo r capping aromatic s woul d b e t oP. 3

se t a minimu

m cetan e indexspecificatio n o f 40 . Bot h reguirement s woul d tak e effec t a t al l point s throughou t th e distributio n systemo nOctobe r 1 , 1993 . Thes e propose d action s woul d resul t i nsubstantia l reduction s i n emission s o f particulat e matte r an d sulfur dioxid e (S0 2 ) . Certificatio n diese l fue l woul d b e change d beginning wit hbot hth e 199 1 an d 199 4 mode l year s t o reflec t th e change s i ncommercia l diese l fue l quality . Vehicle s sol d i nmode l year s 199 1 through199 3 woul d b e certifie d using 0.1 0 weigh t percen t sulfur fuel , reflecting th e averag e fue l sulfur leve l expecte d t o b e use d ove r thes e vehicles ' usefu l live s (a s define d i n CFRTitl e 4 0 §86.085-2) . j . Beginning wit hth e 199 4 mode l year , th e certificatio n fuel * sulfur leve l wil l b e tha t o f commercia l diese l fue l (i.e. , no t t o excee d 0.0 5 weigh t percent) . DATES : EPAwil l conduc t a publi c hearing o n thi s Notic e o f Propose d Rulemaking o n [dat e 3 0 day s afte r Federa l Registe r publication] . Shoul d i t b e necessary , th e hearing s mayb e extende d an additiona l day . Comment s o n thi s proposa l wil l b e accepte d through[dat e 3 1 day s following th e firs t da yo f th e hearing] . Additiona l informatio n o nth e publi c hearing an d submissio no f comment s can b e foun d unde r "Publi c Participation " i n th e SupplementaryInformatio n sectio n o f today' s notice .

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I n summary , EPAestimate s th e potentia l fo r reduce d engin e wea r fro

mlow-sulfur fue l unde r thre e alternativ e truc k manufacturer/owne r respons e scenarios : (1 ) extende d oi l chang e interval s wit hn o increas e i nengin e life , (2 ) n o chang e i n oi l chang e interval s bu t an increas e i n engin e life , an

d (3 ) n o chang e i n oi l chang e interval s wit h increase s i n bot hengin e an d tota l vehicl e life . EP Aha s n o dat a t o determin e whic hscenari o i s mos t likel yt o occur . Th e annua l benefit s o f decrease d engin e wea r i n yea r 201 0 ar e estimate d a t betwee n$40 0 millio n an d $3. 7 billion ; fue l costs , however , ar e estimate d t o increas e betwee n$54 0 millio n an d $1. 3 billion . Base d o n thes e estimates , th e annua l ne t benefit' * accruing directl yt o truc k owner s fro mreduce d engin e wea r alon e coul d b e ove r $ 2 billion . Unde r thi s scenario , truc k owner s woul d b e willing t o payove r $ 2 billio n mor e pe r yea r fo r low-sulfur diese l fue l tha ni t woul d cos t refiner s t o produc e it . T o th e exten t tha t thes e estimate s accuratel yreflec t th e effect s o f th e propose d regulation , ther e mus t b e a reaso nwh ysuchlarg e potentia l ne t gain s hav e no t materialize d base d o n marke t force s alone . EPA seek s commen t o n thi s issue . On e possibl e explanatio n i s tha t ther e ar e significan t cost s t o truc k owner s o f determining th e actua l effect s o f reduce d sulfur fuel s o n engin e wear . Sinc e th e effect s

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tak e plac e insid e engine s ove r fairl ylon g period s o f time , i t mayno t b e eas yt o observe , isolate , an d measur e th e effect s o f reduce d sulfur fuels . I f thes e informatio n cost s ar e sufficientl ylarge , theycoul d outweighth e potentia l ne t benefit s o f a mov e t o low-sulfur fue l resulting fro

mmarke t force s alone . Unde r thes e circumstances , th e informatio n cost s woul d effectivel y preven t th e introductio no f low-sulfur fuel . Whil e thes e cos t saving s estimate s indicat e tha t substantia l societa l benefit s mayresul t fro msulfur control , i t i s fai r t o includ e th e cavea t tha t th e dat a bas e behind thi s analysi s i s limited . I t ha s eve nbeen f argue d tha t sulfur contro l woul d hav e n o impac t o n engine * wear . However , a s wil l b e see ni nSectio nV I o f today' s notice , fue l sulfur contro l i s desirabl e eve n withou t th e inclusio n o f reduced engin e wea r benefits . C . Emission s an

d Ai r Qualit y Th e diese l fue l qualit ychange s being considere d woul d resul t i n substantia l reduction s i n SO , emission s an d particulat e matte r formatio n beyond th e reduction s resulting fro

mth e 199 4 0. 1 g/BHP-hr particulat e standard . I naddition , emission s o f C O an d H C wil l b e indirectl y affecte d b

yfue l qualit ymodification , du e t o th e change s i naftertreatmen t technolog ystrategie s use d b yengin e

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manufacture s t o compl ywit hth e 199 4 particulat e standards . Th e projecte d nationwid e emissio nreduction s unde r th e two extreme distillat e fue l segregatio nscenario s (10 0 percen t an

d NPR Asegregation ) resulting from fue l sulfur an

d aromatic s contro l ar e show ni nTable s 1 an

d 2 . Becaus e the effec t o f diese l fue l contro l o nvehicl e emission s change s wit hmode l year , th e overal l emission s an d ai r qualit yimpact s o f fue l contro l varie s ove r time . Becaus e o f this , bot hth e nea r an d long term

effect s o f fue l contro l wer e evaluated .
A s show

n i n Tabl e 1 , fue l sulfur contro l woul d resul t i nadditiona l reduction s i ndirec t particulat e matte r (PM ) : i frombaselin e level s (i.e . , particulat e matte r emitte d from * th e exhaust ) ove r tha t accomplishe d b yth e HDD particulat e standard s alone . Thi s i s becaus e fue l sulfur contro l wil l resul t i n particulat e reduction s fro m pre-199 1 HDD an d light-dut ydiese l engines , a s wel l as , depending o n th e degre e o f segregation , off-highwaysources . I naddition , a larg e reductio n i n diese l S0 2 emission s woul d result , representing an 8 0 percen t reductio nfrombaselin e level s fo r thos e emissio n source s wher e diese l fue l i s controlled . Thi s woul d represen t a reductio n o f 1.0-2. 5 percen t i ntota l nationa l S0 2 emissions . Beyond that , a s



# -Z'f B -P. 7 "nr" ' describe d i n mor e detai l i n th e Draf t RIA , i t wa s estimate d tha t approximatel y1 2 percen t o f urban S0 2 emission s ar e converte d t o sulfat e particulate s i nth e urba n atmosphere . Thes e atmospherically-forme d particulat e ar e referre d t o a s indirec t PM . Thus , th e reductio ni n S0 2 emission s woul d resul t i nsubstantia l indirec t P Mreduction s i nbot hth e shor t an

d lon g ter m a s well .



## 'C 

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Tabl e 1
Projecte d Nationwid e Emissio nReduction s du e t o Diese l Fue l Sulfur Contro l (100 0 tons/yr )

Pollutan t Tota l Particulat e Directl yEmitte d Indirec t 

### so 2 H C C O 199 5 99-196 * 10-2 9 89-16 7 310-58 0 1 4 14 1 201 5

159-32 1 3-3 5 156-28 6 542-99 3 8 8 91 6

Lowe r en

d o f rang e resul t o f 100 % distillat e segregation , uppe r en d resul t o f curren t segregatio n practices . Th e emissio nimpact s o f controlling fue l aromatic s t o 2 0 volume percen t wer e als o evaluate d an d ar e show

n i n Tabl e 2 . Tota l particulat e emissio nreduction s rang e from 10,00 0 ton s pe r yea r i n199 5 t o 60 0 ton s pe r yea r i n 2015 . Smal l H C an

d C O emissio nreduction s woul d als o resul t from aromatic s control . Thes e particulat e reduction s ar e a facto r o f 1 0 t o 2 0 smalle r i n th e shor t ter m tha n thos e resulting fro

msulfur control . Du e primaril yt o th e stead y stat e natur e o f off-highwaydiese l operation , emission s



# -30 -P. 9 Tabl e 3 33-Yea r Urba nCost-Effectivenes s Analysi s

Sulfur Contro l

Maximu mwea r credi t include d Minimu mwea r credi t include d N o wea r credi t include d Cost-Effectivenes s ($/ton ) -68,14 8 t o -19,25 3 -3,90 6 t o 4,30 4 2,82 6 t o 6,77 3 Aromatic s Contro l

PrimaryAnalysi s HighEmissio nReductio n Sensitivit yAnalysi s Cost-Effectivenes s ($/ton ) 310,75 1 t o 560,37 8 » 135,78 9 t o 244,86 8
A s can b e see ni n Tabl e 3 , eve ni f saving s from reduce d wea r ar e no t counted , th e cost-effectiveness , o f fue l sulfur contro l i s a t mos t $6,77 3 pe r ton , an d i s significantl yles s whe n engin e wea r credit s ar e included . Tabl e 3 show s tha t aromatic s contro l i s muc hles s cost-effectiv e tha n sulfur contro l (or th e particulat e standard s themselves) . Th e 33-yea r cost-effectivenes s fo r aromatic s contro l t o 2 0 percen t wa s calculate d t o b e $310,000-560,00 0 pe r ton .

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