Before the

EAS & Domestic Analysis Division, X.53

Office of Aviation Analysis, Room 6401

Department of Transportation

400 7th Street, S.W.

Washington, D.C. 20590

Essential Air Service at

CENTRAL, ALASKA

CIRCLE, ALASKA

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Under 49 U.S.C. 41731 et seq. )

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August 13, 2013

DOCKET OST-1998.3621

Proposal to Provide Essential Air Service

at Central and Circle, Alaska

Warbelow's Air Ventures hereby submits its proposal for Essential Air Service to Central and/or

Circle for the period December 1, 2013 to November 30, 2015.

Schedule

Our proposal covers five flights a week with a Piper Navajo Chieftan PA31.350, hereafter called

PA31-350. We intend to continue with the current schedule because it meets historic needs and

projected demand for passenger, freight, and mail service. This schedule is published in the

OAG with departures Monday through Friday at the following times:
Fairbanks Central Circle Fairbanks

DeDart 1100 1150 1225

Arrive 1145 1215 1315

Block Time 45 min 25 min 50 min

Total Time 2.00

These scheduled times reflect our OAG schedule and closely reflect historic block times.

Therefore our proposal is based on 2.0 hours per flight. Total flight hours per year with 100%

completion is 2.0 hours roundtrip flight x 5 days per week x 52 weeks = 520 hours per year and

1040 hours for the two year subsidy period.

Projected Demand

As it has been for a number of years, traffic at Circle and Central has remained relatively static,

with small variations year to year. When comparing the data provided [2009/2010] in the

previous Central/Circle proposal period to data from the most recent year period [July 2012-June

2013], we see some small changes. Passenger revenue is down slightly; freight revenue is down

by well over 50% in Central, although up well over 50% in Circle (which is the larger of the two

markets); and mail volume has dropped noticeably in both communities. Attached in Appendix

A are both our actual revenues for the previous four quarters, as well as our expenses for the

same period. We have based our proposal on data from the most recent year period, having no

reason to believe there will be major change.

Projected Expenses

Fuel costs have been on an upward trend over the recent years and have certainly attributed to

increases in the cost per hour. We have conservatively estimated future fuel costs based on the

last four quarters data and are not increasing our request based on any anticipated increases.
Aircraft Type/Utilization

Warbelow's Air Ventures offers for consideration by DOT and the communities, service in twinengine aircraft with nine insured passenger seats. The balance of the capacity is reserved for

mail and freight. The community of Central is proposed to receive a change in airspace that will

create an approved IFR RNAV GPS approach. The fleet of aircraft utilized by Warbelow's is

equipped with adequate avionics and equipment to utilize the proposed approach into Central.

The IFR capability of our aircraft will allow increased safety and reliability for the community.

We look forward to working with you on this renewal, and providing continuing service to the

communities of Central and Circle. If you have any questions or require further clarification,

please don't hesitate to contact us.

Sincerely,

Matthew Atkinson

Warbelow's Air Ventures, Inc.

3758 University Avenue South

Fairbanks, Alaska 99709

adventure@northemalaska.com

907-474-3520 or 907-388-3571
Warbelow's Air Ventures, Inc.

Essential Air Service

To Be Provided At Central & Circle, Alaska

APPENDIX A

DEPARTURE DATA & ANALYSIS PERIOD

Routing:

Depature Frequency:

Annual Block Hours:

Aircraft Type:

Analysis Period:

Fairbanks> Central> Circle> Fairbanks

5 trips/week

520

PA31-350

1 year --- 01 July 2012 through 30 June 2013

REVENUE ANALYSIS

wi!S:setige~e\>'epd;e'~ Pax Fare Totals

Central .37 $90.23 $3,338.51

Circle 414 $92.09 $38,125.26

Passenger Total $41,463.77

l¥fiikWtt'@(eiue..:/fJ"'o';iJ Pounds Rate Totals

Central 1375 $0.45 $618.75

Circle 13939 $0.51 $7,108.89

Freight Total $7,727.64

fMiill'Reyenl1~;::,"l_,1J Pounds Rate Totals

Central 25760 $0.9809 $25,267.98

Circle 17508 $1.0904 $19,090.72

Mail Total $44,358.71

ityt\!l ~:te1iii~W-,k&~. $93,550.12
Appendix A, Page 2

EXPENSE ANALYSIS

@UiiitIJluck1!6J1iSit!J

ID~£F~i@?:)'-";"'-J "k tile ... .~....., .

Pilot & Co-pilot

Fuel & Oil

Other

Maintenance

Depreciation/Rental

Total Direct Expense

Iiidi~i?'''~i:J

Total Indirect Expense

Itii]u~g#ti,[g"C~l ..:;;J

Profit Element @ 10% of TOC

Total Economic Cost

520

Per Block Hour

$96.40

$192.38

$22.87

$236.47

$47.00

$595.12

Per Block Hour

$103.05

Annually

$50,128.00

$100,037.60

$11,892.40

$122,964.40

$24,440.00

Annually

$53,586.00

$309,462.40

$53,586.00

$363,048.40

$36,304.84

$399,353.24

SUBSIDY ANALYSIS

Total Economic Cost

Less Revenue

Annual subsidy need at 100% Completion

$399,353.24

$93,550.12

1 Year: $305,803.12

2 Years: $611,606.25