## Using the NEMS Commercial Model for Standards Impact Analysis

Steve Shankle hwest National Laboratory March 11, 1997 

## Using the NEMS

.Commercial Model for Standards ImpactAnalysis
Steve Shankle

.

Pacific Northwe.st National Laboratory March 11, 1997

### EMS commercial model used

to evaluate AS HRAE public 

### review draft n EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 1996 baseline inputs used m, NEMS PC 1995 model version n Applied NEMS to potential water heater standards as demonstration 

### n Received significant technical support from EIA in applying model
Mich 11! 199

## :1~~~~-----,--,,----- NEMS commercial model used to evaluate ASHRAE public review draft II EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 1'996 baseline inputs used II" NEMS PC 1995 model version IIApplied NEMS to potential water heater standards as demonstration • Received significant technical support from EIA in applying modelzzzzzz //ZZZ-//// 

### Step 1 : Generate Baseline Input

Data n Start with input files used to generate AEO 96 n Modify NEMS technology description to match ASHRAE formulation -Adjustments to efficiencies, availability, costs -Calibrated to AEO 96 energy forecast

## ~~~~~~ Step 1: Generate Baseline Input Data
• Start with input files used to generate AE096 II Modify NEMS technology description to match ASHRAE formulation

- Adjustments to efficiencies, availability, costs

- Calibrated to AE,O 96 energy forecast 

### /-Z/Z 

### Step 2: Model Standards n Switch off availability of lower efficiency equipment in years following standard n "Policy handle" in NEMS specifically designed to allow modeling of standards n Model multiple cases, each with different standards level 

### Step 2: Model Standards
II Switch off availability of lower efficiency equipment in years following standard II "Policy handle" in NEMS s.pecifically designed to allow mod,eling of standards II Model multiple cases, each with different standards level///ZZZ Z-Z/ZZZZZ 

### Step 3: Run N EMS Cases n Run NEMS baseline n Run each standards case n Outputs are fed into post-processor 

### Step 3: Run NEMS Cases
II 

### Run NEMS baseline II 

### Run each standards case II 

### Outputs are fed into post-processor

### Step 4: Post-processing n NEMS outputs regional service demand by technology (trillion Btu/year) n Convert to required capacity using efficiency 

### n Convert to actual capacity using capacity factor 

### n Convert to shipments using average equipment capacity (or a distribution) 

### Step 

### 4: Post-processing

• NEMS outputs regional service demand by technology (trillion Btu/year) II Convert to required capacity using efficiency • Convertto actual capacity using capacity factor • Convertto shipments using average equipment capacity (or a distribution)/^-ZZZZZZZZZZZ IZZZ Z

### Issues n Within technology "Types" NEMS does not explicitly define equipment size n Competition between size categories 

### within a technology type is


### . difficult to model

Mdreh 1 1! 199 

### Issues

• Within technology "Types" NEMS does 

### not explicitly define equipment size • Competition between size categories within a technology type isdifficult to model



### //ZZ/ // / /
iss ues (

conyt ) 

### n Energy and equipment costs may not entirely determine consumer choice: - Availability of fuel type - Demand charges for electricity - One time costs for fuel switching 

### Issues (con't)
II 

### Energy and equipment costs may not entirely determine consumer choice:

- Availability of fuel type
.

- Demand charges for electricity

- One time costs for fuel switching