Before the EAS & Domestic Analysis Division, X.53 Office ofAviation Analysis, Room 6401 Department ofTransportation 400 7th Street, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20590

Essential Air Service at CENTRAL, ALASKA CIRCLE, ALASKA ) ) ) ) ) Under49 U.S.C. 41731 et seq. ) 

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August 13, 2013 DOCKET OST-1998.3621



## Proposal toProvide Essential Air Service at Central and Circle, Alaska

Warbelow's Air Ventures hereby submits its proposal for Essential Air Service to Central and/or Circle forthe period December 1, 2013 to November 30, 2015. 

## Schedule

Ourproposal covers five flights aweek with aPiper Navajo Chieftan PA31.350, hereafter called PA31-350. We intend to continue with the current schedule because itmeets historic needs and projected demand forpassenger, freight, and mail service. This schedule is published in the OAGwith departures Monday through Friday atthe following times:Fairbanks Central Circle Fairbanks DeDart 1100 1150 1225 Arrive 1145 1215 1315 Block Time 45 min 25 min 50 min Total Time 2.00

These scheduled times reflect our OAG schedule and closely reflect historic block times. Therefore our proposal isbased on 2.0 hours per flight. Total flight hours per year with 100% completion is 2.0 hours roundtrip flight x 5 days per week x 52 weeks 

## = 520 hours per year and 1040hours for the two year subsidy period. 

## Projected Demand

As ithas been for anumber ofyears, traffic atCircle and Central has remained relatively static, with small variations year to year. When comparing the data provided [2009/2010] in the previous Central/Circle proposal period to data from themost recent year period [July 2012-June 2013], we see some small changes. Passenger revenue is down slightly; freight revenue is down by well over 50% in Central, although up well over 50% in Circle (which is the larger ofthe two markets); andmail volume has dropped noticeably inboth communities. Attached inAppendix A areboth our actual revenues for the previous four quarters, as well as our expenses for the sameperiod. We have based our proposal on data from the most recent year period, having no reason tobelieve there will be major change.


## Projected Expenses
Fuelcosts have been on anupward trend over the recent years and have certainly attributed to increases inthe cost per hour. We have conservatively estimated future fuel costs based on the lastfour quarters data and are not increasing our request based on any anticipated increases.

## Aircraft Type/Utilization

Warbelow's Air Ventures offers for consideration by DOT and the communities, service intwinengine aircraft with nine insured passenger seats. The balance ofthe capacity is reserved for mail andfreight. The community ofCentral isproposed toreceive achange in airspace that will create anapproved IFR RNAV GPS approach. The fleet ofaircraft utilized by Warbelow's is equipped with adequate avionics and equipment to utilize the proposed approach into Central. The IFR capability ofour aircraft will allow increased safety and reliability for the community.

We look forward to working with you on this renewal, and providing continuing service to the communities ofCentral and Circle. Ifyou have any questions or require further clarification, please don't hesitate to contact us. Sincerely,

Matthew Atkinson Warbelow's Air Ventures, Inc. 3758 University Avenue South Fairbanks, Alaska 99709 adventure@northemalaska.com 907-474-3520 or 907-388-3571

## Warbelow's Air Ventures, Inc. EssentialAir Service ToBeProvided AtCentral &

## Circle, Alaska 

# APPENDIX A



# DEPARTURE DATA &

# ANALYSIS PERIOD

Routing: Depature Frequency: AnnualBlock Hours: AircraftType: Analysis Period: Fairbanks> Central> Circle> Fairbanks 5 trips/week 520 PA31-350 1 year --- 01 July 2012 through 30 June 2013



# REVENUE ANALYSIS wi!S:setige~e\>'epd;e'~ Pax Fare Totals Central .37 $90.23 $3,338.51 Circle 414 $92.09 $38,125.26 Passenger Total $41,463.77 

# l¥fiikWtt'@(eiue..:/fJ"'o';iJ Pounds Rate Totals Central 1375 $0.45 $618.75 Circle 13939 $0.51 $7,108.89 FreightTotal $7,727.64 

# fMiill'Reyenl1~;::,"l_,1J Pounds Rate Totals Central 25760 $0.9809 $25,267.98 Circle 17508 $1.0904 $19,090.72 Mail Total $44,358.71 ityt\!l 

# ~:te1iii~W-



# ,k&~. $93,550.12Appendix A, Page 2



# EXPENSE ANALYSIS @UiiitIJluck1!6J1iSit!J ID~£F~i@?:)'-";"'-J

. "k tile

... .~....., Pilot & Co-pilot Fuel &Oil Other Maintenance Depreciation/Rental Total Direct Expense 

# Iiidi~i?'''~i:J Total Indirect Expense 

## Itii]u~g#ti,[g"C~l

.. 

## :;;J ProfitElement @ 10% ofTOC Total Economic Cost 520
Per Block Hour $96.40 $192.38 $22.87 $236.47 $47.00 $595.12

PerBlock Hour $103.05 Annually $50,128.00 $100,037.60 $11,892.40 $122,964.40 $24,440.00

Annually $53,586.00 $309,462.40

$53,586.00
$363,048.40 $36,304.84 $399,353.24


# SUBSIDY ANALYSIS

TotalEconomic Cost LessRevenue Annual subsidy need at 100% Completion $399,353.24 $93,550.12 1 Year: $305,803.12 2Years: $611,606.25