CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

10.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 10-1 

10.1.1 Approach............................................................................................................ 10-1 

10.1.2 Factors Relevant to the Analysis........................................................................ 10-2 

10.2 BASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND
 

FORECASTED EFFICIENCY TRENDS ..................................................................... 10-3 

10.2.1 Central Air Conditioners.................................................................................... 10-4 

10.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies ............................................. 10-4 

10.2.1.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends .......................................................... 10-6 

10.2.1.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions............................................... 10-10 

10.2.2 Heat Pumps ...................................................................................................... 10-13 

10.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies ........................................... 10-13 

10.2.2.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends ........................................................ 10-16 

10.2.2.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions............................................... 10-21 

10.3 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS................. 10-23 

10.3.1 Definition ......................................................................................................... 10-24 

10.3.2 Inputs to Calculation........................................................................................ 10-25 

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit .......................................... 10-25 

10.3.2.2 Shipments including Equipment Switching................................... 10-37 

10.3.2.3 Equipment Stock ............................................................................ 10-41 

10.3.2.4 Annual Energy Consumption ......................................................... 10-41 

10.3.2.5 Site-to-Source Energy Conversion Factors.................................... 10-41 

10.4 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL NET PRESENT VALUE ........... 10-42 

10.4.1 Definition ......................................................................................................... 10-42 

10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation........................................................................................ 10-44 

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit .......................................................... 10-44 

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost per Unit .................................................... 10-54 

10.4.2.3 Shipments including Equipment Switching................................... 10-62 

10.4.2.4 Equipment Stock ............................................................................ 10-64 

10.4.2.5 Increases in Total Annual Installed Cost ....................................... 10-64 

10.4.2.6 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost ....................................... 10-65 

10.4.2.7 Discount Factors ............................................................................ 10-65 

10.4.2.8 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost ..................................... 10-65 

10.4.2.9 Present Value of Savings ............................................................... 10-66 

10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATIONS .............................................................................. 10-66 

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs ........................................................................................... 10-66 

10.5.2 National and Regional Energy Savings ........................................................... 10-67 

10.5.2.1 Central Air Conditioners................................................................ 10-67 

10.5.2.2 Heat Pumps .................................................................................... 10-72 

10.5.3 Calculating Annual Cost and Savings.............................................................. 10-74 

10.5.4 Net Present Values........................................................................................... 10-75 

10-i 
10.5.4.1 Central Air Conditioners................................................................ 10-76 

10.5.4.2 Heat Pumps .................................................................................... 10-85 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 10.2.1 Split System CAC, Coil Only Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................... 10-5 

Table 10.2.2 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: SEER Distributions for the Base
 

and Standards Cases in 2016.............................................................................. 10-5 

Table 10.2.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: SEER Distributions for the Base
 

and Standards Cases in 2016.............................................................................. 10-6 

Table 10.2.4 CAC SWEF Growth Rates................................................................................. 10-7 

Table 10.2.5 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions 

and SWEFs....................................................................................................... 10-11 

Table 10.2.6 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions 

and SWEFs....................................................................................................... 10-12 

Table 10.2.7 Single Package CAC: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs.......... 10-13 

Table 10.2.8 Split System HP: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 ................................................................................................... 10-16 

Table 10.2.9 Single Package HP: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 ................................................................................................... 10-16 

Table 10.2.10 Heat Pump SWEF Growth Rates ..................................................................... 10-17 

Table 10.2.11 Split System HPs: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and 

SWEFs ............................................................................................................. 10-22 

Table 10.2.12 Single Package HPs: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and 

SWEFs ............................................................................................................. 10-23 

Table 10.3.1 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-26 

Table 10.3.2 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and New Owner 

Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016....................................... 10-27 

Table 10.3.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016....................................... 10-28 

Table 10.3.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: Replacement 

and New Owner Markets, Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 .......................... 10-29 

Table 10.3.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-30 

Table 10.3.6 Split System Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 .......................... 10-32 

10-ii 
Table 10.3.7	 Single Package Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual
 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 .......................... 10-35 

Table 10.3.8	 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Split System Heat 

Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy
 

Consumption of Alternative Combination Coil-Only Split System Central 

Air Conditioner and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 ................................................................................................... 10-39 

Table 10.3.9	 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Single Package Heat 

Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy
 

Consumption of Alternative Combination Single Package Central Air 

Conditioner and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-40 

Table 10.3.10 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors .................................................................. 10-42 

Table 10.4.1	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost 

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ............................................................. 10-45 

Table 10.4.2	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ...................................... 10-46 

Table 10.4.3	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost 

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ............................................................. 10-47 

Table 10.4.4	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, Replacement 

and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ...................................... 10-47 

Table 10.4.5	 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 ................................................................................................... 10-49 

Table 10.4.6	 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, Replacement and New Owner 

Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for
 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ................................................................... 10-49 

Table 10.4.7	 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-51 

Table 10.4.8	 Split System Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-51 

Table 10.4.9	 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-53 

Table 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-53 

10-iii 
Table 10.4.11 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-56 

Table 10.4.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-57 

Table 10.4.13 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-59 

Table 10.4.14 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair 

and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ....................... 10-60 

Table 10.4.15 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ........... 10-62 

Table 10.4.16 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Split System Heat 

Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs of 

Alternative Combination Coil-Only Split System Central Air Conditioner 

and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 .............. 10-63 

Table 10.4.17 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers Single Package Heat 

Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs of 

Alternative Combination Single Package Central Air Conditioner and 

Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ..................... 10-64 

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculations ...................................................................................... 10-67 

Table 10.5.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (quads) .............. 10-68 

Table 10.5.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (quads)............. 10-69 

Table 10.5.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Residential and Commercial 

Sectors (quads)................................................................................................. 10-69 

Table 10.5.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and 

Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)......................................... 10-71 

Table 10.5.6 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy
 

Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)..................................................................... 10-72 

Table 10.5.7 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy
 

Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)..................................................................... 10-74 

Table 10.5.8 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (3% 

Discount Rate) ................................................................................................. 10-77 

Table 10.5.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector 

(3% Discount Rate).......................................................................................... 10-77 

Table 10.5.10 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential and 

Commercial Sectors (3% Discount Rate) ........................................................ 10-78 

10-iv 
Table 10.5.11 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (7% 

Discount Rate) ................................................................................................. 10-80 

Table 10.5.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector 

(7% Discount Rate).......................................................................................... 10-80 

Table 10.5.13 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential and 

Commercial Sectors (7% Discount Rate) ........................................................ 10-81 

Table 10.5.14 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative 

National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate).... 10-83 

Table 10.5.15 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative 

National and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate).... 10-84 

Table 10.5.16 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate)......................................... 10-85 

Table 10.5.17 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate)......................................... 10-87 

Table 10.5.18 Single Package Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate) ......................... 10-88 

Table 10.5.19 Single Package Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate) ......................... 10-89 

LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 10.2.1 CAC Historical SWEFs with Linear Fits........................................................... 10-7 

Figure 10.2.2 Split System CAC, Coil Only Units: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and 

Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base Case and Standards Cases ............. 10-8 

Figure 10.2.3 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and 

Forecasted Efficiency Trends for Base Case and Standards Cases ................... 10-9 

Figure 10.2.4 Single Package CAC: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases ......................................... 10-9 

Figure 10.2.5 Split System HP: HSPF and SEER relationship .............................................. 10-14 

Figure 10.2.6 Single Package HP: HSPF and SEER relationship.......................................... 10-15 

Figure 10.2.7 Heat Pump Historical SWEFs based on SEER with Linear Fits ..................... 10-17 

Figure 10.2.8 Split System HP: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases ....................................... 10-19 

Figure 10.2.9 Split System HP: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases ....................................... 10-19 

Figure 10.2.10 Single Package HP: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases ....................................... 10-20 

Figure 10.2.11 Single Package HP: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases ....................................... 10-21 

10-v 
Figure 10.3.1 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base 

Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ............. 10-27 

Figure 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016­

2046 Forecast Period........................................................................................ 10-29 

Figure 10.3.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base 

Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ............. 10-31 

Figure 10.3.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case 

and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period .................... 10-33 

Figure 10.3.5 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case 

and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period .................... 10-34 

Figure 10.3.6 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case 

and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period...................... 10-36 

Figure 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case 

and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period...................... 10-37 

Figure 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the 

Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period .... 10-46 

Figure 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the 

Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period .. 10-48 

Figure 10.4.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Two 

Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ..................................... 10-50 

Figure 10.4.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases 

over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ................................................................ 10-52 

Figure 10.4.5 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases 

over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ................................................................ 10-54 

Figure 10.4.6 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 

2016-2046 Forecast Period .............................................................................. 10-56 

Figure 10.4.7 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 

2016-2046 Forecast Period .............................................................................. 10-58 

10-vi 
Figure 10.4.8 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base 

Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ............. 10-59 

Figure 10.4.9 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and 

Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ........................... 10-61 

Figure 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and 

Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period ............................. 10-62 

Figure 10.5.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads) ........................................................ 10-70 

Figure 10.5.2 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and 

Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)......................................... 10-71 

Figure 10.5.3 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy
 

Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)..................................................................... 10-73 

Figure 10.5.4 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy
 

Savings from 2016-2046 (quads)..................................................................... 10-74 

Figure 10.5.5 Non-Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in 

Operating Cost for Split System Coil-Only Central Air Conditioners, 

Candidate Standard Level 2 ............................................................................. 10-75 

Figure 10.5.6 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)........................................................ 10-79 

Figure 10.5.7 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)........................................................ 10-82 

Figure 10.5.8 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate) ........................................ 10-83 

Figure 10.5.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)........................................................ 10-84 

Figure 10.5.10 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 

2016-2046 (3% discount rate).......................................................................... 10-86 

Figure 10.5.11 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 

2016-2046 (7% discount rate).......................................................................... 10-87 

Figure 10.5.12 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV 

from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate)................................................................. 10-89 

Figure 10.5.13 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV 

from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate)................................................................. 10-90 

10-vii 
CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES 

10.1 INTRODUCTION
 

This chapter describes the method that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) developed 

to estimate the energy savings, and net present value of those energy savings, that consumers 

would receive from potential new energy efficiency standards for residential and commercial 

consumers of central air conditioners (CAC) and heat pumps (HP). Chapter 5 describes the 

efficiency levels, otherwise known as candidate standard levels (CSLs), for the products 

represented by central air conditioners and heat pumps. This chapter examines the national 

energy savings (NES) attributable to each CSL, along with the energy savings specific to three 

regions based on climate: a hot-humid climate (the Southeast), a hot-dry climate (the Southwest), 

and the rest of the Nation. The results presented here for the nation as a whole and for each of the 

three regions include: (1) potential energy consumption and savings; (2) the monetary value of 

energy savings attributable to each CSL; (3) increased total installed costs (purchase price plus 

installation costs) attributable to each CSL; and (4) the net present value (NPV) of energy 

savings (the difference between the value of energy savings and increased total installed costs in 

2008$). 

DOE determined both the energy savings and NPV for each CSL considered for the 

product comprising central air conditioners and heat pumps. The calculations were performed 

using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet 

(http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/central_ac_hp.html). 

The spreadsheet model, termed the National Impact Analysis (NIA) model, calculates energy 

savings and NPV for the nation and for each of the three regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of 

the Nation). Details regarding and instructions for using the NIA model are provided in appendix 

10-A. 

10.1.1 Approach 

The critical factors that govern energy consumption by CAC and HPs are: (1) the 

quantities shipped; (2) financial considerations such as consumer response to changes in total 

installed cost, operating expenses, and household income; and (3) voluntary programs that 

promote higher-efficiency products. Chapter 9 describes in detail the shipments model that DOE 

used to forecast future purchases of central air conditioners and heat pumps. Chapter 9 includes 

detailed descriptions of consumers’ sensitivities to total installed cost, operating expense, and 

income (otherwise known as elasticities), and how DOE captured those elasticities within the 

NIA model. 

Voluntary programs increase the market share of energy efficient equipment. Between 

1992 (the effective date of the first federal energy efficiency standards for central air 

conditioners and heat pumps) and 2005, the shipment-weighted efficiency of central air 

conditioners and heat pumps has grown by approximately one SEER point. Presumably, the 

10-1 
 

efficiency increase over this time period has been due at least in part to voluntary programs. 

Consequently, DOE assumed that market-based initiatives would continue to have the same 

effect on the efficiency of product shipments as it has in the past. Details on how this effect was 

captured in the analysis are detailed below in section 10.2. 

10.1.2 Factors Relevant to the Analysis 

The product and product classes being considered for new standards are described in 

detail in chapter 3. Below is a brief description of the product, product classes, and other factors 

that were considered in evaluating the effects of potential new energy standards. 

•	 Product being considered: 

o	 central air conditioners (CACs) and heat pumps (HPs) 

•	 Product classes within this product:a 

o	 split system air conditioners, 

o	 single package air conditioners, 

o	 split system heat pumps, and 

o	 single package heat pumps, 

•	 Markets: 

o	 Central air conditioners: 93 percent used in residential settings; 7 percent used in 

commercial settings. 

 Split systems comprise 90.4 percent of both the residential and 

commercial markets. 

 Single package systems represent 9.6 percent of both the residential and 

commercial markets. 

o	 Heat pumps: 93 percent used in residential settings; 7 percent used in commercial 

settings. 

 Split systems comprise 87.7 percent of both the residential and 

commercial markets. 

 Single package systems represent 12.3 percent of both the residential and 

commercial markets. 

•	 Channels (i.e., product placement): 

o	 Central air conditioners are purchased for: 

 new construction, 

 replacements, and 

 existing households and commercial building owners that do not already 

own the product (hereafter referred to as “new owners”). 

o	 Heat pumps are purchased for: 

 new construction, 

 replacements, and 

a

 There are three other product classes including small duct high velocity (SDHV) systems, space-constrained air 

conditioners, and space-constrained heat pumps which are not being analyzed for this preliminary TSD due to lack 

of available data and limited product offerings. 

10-2 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 new owners. 

• Effects of increased purchase price, operating cost savings, and household income: 

o Central air conditioners: Evaluated for replacement and new owner purchases. 

 For replacement purchases, effected consumers repair their product rather 

than replace it, extending the life of the product by six years. 

 For new owner purchases, effected consumers purchase a room air 

conditioner rather than a central air conditioner. 

o	 Heat pump: Evaluated for replacement and new owner purchases. 

 For replacement purchases, effected consumers repair their product rather 

than replace it, extending the life of the product by six years. 

 For new owner purchases, effected consumers purchase a combination 

electric resistance furnace and central air conditioner rather than a heat 

pump. 

•	 Regional standards considered:b 

o	 hot-humid region (consisting of states in the Southeastern U.S. including 

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, 

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas; Hawaii is also included); 

o	 hot-dry region (consisting of states in the Southwest including Arizona, Nevada, 

and New Mexico; California is also included); 

o	 the rest of the Nation; that is, the remaining 33 states including Alaska. 

•	 Standard Levels: 

o	 seven levels for split system air conditioners, coil-only units and 13 levels for split 

system air conditioners, blower coil units, 

o	 seven levels for single package air conditioners, 

o	 ten levels for split system heat pumps, and 

o	 seven levels for single package heat pumps. 

10.2	 BASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND 

FORECASTED EFFICIENCY TRENDS 

A key component of DOE’s estimates of national and regional energy savings and net 

present value (NPV) is the energy efficiency forecasted over time for the base case (without new 

standards) and for each of the standards cases (with potential new standards). The forecasted 

efficiencies represent the annual shipment-weighted energy efficiency (SWEF) of the product 

classes under consideration from the assumed effective date of a new standard to 30 years after 

that date. Key inputs to the calculation of both national and regional energy savings and NPV 

depend on estimated energy efficiencies. Per-unit annual energy consumption, for example, is a 

direct function of product efficiency and dictates energy savings. Chapter 6, Energy Use 

Determination, describes how per-unit energy consumption changes as a function of efficiency 

for each product class. With regard to the NPV, two inputs, the per-unit total installed cost and 

the per-unit annual operating cost, depend on efficiency. The per-unit total installed cost is a 

b

 Regional standards are being considered in addition to standards for the Nation as a whole. 

10-3 
 

 

direct function of efficiency because more efficient products are assumed to be more expensive 

than their less efficient counterparts. Because per-unit annual operating cost is a direct function 

of per-unit annual energy consumption, it too is dependent on product efficiency. Section 8.2.2 

of chapter 8, Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) and Payback Period (PBP) Analysis, describes how per-unit 

total installed cost changes as a function of efficiency for each product class. The above and all 

other inputs to the calculation of energy savings and NPV are discussed in sections 10.3.2 and 

10.4.2. The two sections below (sections 10.2.1 and 10.2.2) describe how DOE developed base 

and standards case efficiency distributions and forecasted efficiency trends. 

As noted in section 10.1.2, DOE constructed and conducted its NIA to analyze standards 

for the Nation as a whole and three specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). 

Ideally, the base case and standards case efficiency distributions and forecasted efficiency trends 

would be characterized as a function of region. Unfortunately, DOE only received data at the 

national level. As a result, DOE assumed that the distributions and trends developed for the 

entire Nation are also representative for the three regions (i.e., efficiency distributions and trends 

do not vary by region). 

10.2.1 Central Air Conditioners 

10.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies 

For both CAC product classes—split systems and single package systems—DOE 

developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific efficiency 

levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE determined the distribution of product efficiencies 

currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER-based SWEF for the year 2016. DOE derived its 

base case efficiency distributions for split system and single package CACs on SWEF data 

provided by AHRI in combination with the range of product offerings in AHRI’s listing of 

certified unitary air-conditioner equipment. For more details on the derivation of the split system 

and single package base case efficiencies, refer to section 8.2.3.8 of chapter 8, LCC and PBP 

Analysis. 

For its determination of standards-case efficiencies, DOE assumed a “roll-up” scenario to 

establish the SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (i.e., 2016). 

DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under 

consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. Also, DOE assumed that all 

product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under consideration would not 

be affected. 

Tables 10.2.1 and 10.2.2 present the SEER-based efficiency distributions and resulting 

SWEF for the base case and standards cases for split system coil-only and blower coil CACs, 

respectively, in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Table 10.2.3 

presents the SEER-based efficiency distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and 

standards cases for single package CACs in the year 2016. Each table clearly shows how each 

standards case, under a “roll-up” scenario, affects the efficiency distribution. 

10-4 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.2.1 Split System CAC, Coil Only Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 

CSL SEER 

Market Share 

Base Case 

Standards Case 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Baseline 13.0 24.6% - - - - - - -

1 13.5 56.4% 81.0% - - - - - -

2 14.0 4.1% 4.1% 85.1% - - - - -

3 14.5 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 90.5% - - - -

4 15.0 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 93.8% - - -

5 15.5 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 95.9% - -

6 16.0 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 99.5% -

7 16.5 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 100% 

SWEF 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50 

Table 10.2.2 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 

CSL SEER 

Market Share 

Base 

Case 

Standards Case 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 

Baseline 13.0 18.5% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1 13.5 42.3% 60.8% - - - - - - - - - - - -

2 14.0 3.1% 3.1% 63.8% - - - - - - - - - - -

3 14.5 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 67.9% - - - - - - - - - -

4 15.0 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 70.4% - - - - - - - - -

5 15.5 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 71.9% - - - - - - - -

6 16.0 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 74.6% - - - - - - -

7 16.5 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 75.0% - - - - - -

8 17.0 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 85.0% - - - - -

9 18.0 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 92.0% - - - -

10 19.0 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 95.0% - - -

11 20.0 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 97.0% - -

12 21.0 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 99.0% -

13 22.0 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 100% 

SWEF 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 

10-5 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.2.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: SEER Distributions for the Base 

and Standards Cases in 2016 

CSL SEER 

Market Share 

Base Case 

Standards Case 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Baseline 13.0 75% - - - - - - -

1 13.5 20% 95% - - - - - -

2 14.0 2% 2% 97% - - - - -

3 14.5 2% 2% 2% 99% - - - -

4 15.0 1% 1% 1% 1% 100% - - -

5 15.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% - -

6 16.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% -

7 16.6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 

SWEF 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60 

10.2.1.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends 

Historical Efficiency Trends 

Using the SWEF for the year 2016 as a starting point, DOE developed base-case 

forecasted efficiency trends based on assumptions regarding future efficiency growth. To 

estimate SWEFs over the 30 year forecast spanning 2016–2046, DOE reviewed historical SWEF 

data provided by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) spanning the 

years 1992 to 2008.1

 Between 1992, the year in which the first set of standards for CAC and 

HPs became effective, and 2006, when an updated set of standards became effective, the SWEFs 

for CACs grew by approximately one SEER point. Figure 10.2.1 shows the SWEFs for split 

system and single package CACs. The figure also presents the linear fit to each product class’ 

SWEF data series. The linear fits have high coefficients of determination, i.e., linear fits provide 

a good estimate of the SWEF growth rate. Table 10.2.1 provides a summary of the SWEF 

growth rates for each product class. 

10-6 
 

Split A/C 

SEER = 0.0703 * year - 129.65 

R2 = 0.9633 

Package A/C 

SEER = 0.0778 * year - 144.78 

R2 = 0.9455 

10.0 

10.2 

10.4 

10.6 

10.8 

11.0 

11.2 

11.4 

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted SEER 

Split A/C 

Package A/C 

Linear (Split A/C) 

Linear (Package A/C) 

Figure 10.2.1 CAC Historical SWEFs with Linear Fits 

Table 10.2.4 CAC SWEF Growth Rates

 SWEF Growth Rate 

Product Class SEER increase per year 

Split System Air Conditioners 0.0703 

Single Package Air Conditioners 0.0778 

Base Case Efficiency Trends 

Because various market-pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs 

were in existence from 1992 to 2005, the SWEF growth rate evident in the historical data was 

likely due in part to these market-pull programs. As a result, DOE applied the SWEF growth 

rates in Table 10.2.4 to the base case SWEFs in 2016 to forecast annual SWEFs for the CAC 

product classes from 2016 to 2046. Application of the SWEF growth rates in this manner 

assumes that future market-pull programs will be as effective at increasing product efficiency as 

past programs. 

Standards Case Efficiency Trends 

To develop standards case forecasted SWEFs, DOE developed growth trends for each 

candidate standard level that maintained the same per-unit average total installed cost difference 

for the year 2016 between the base case and each standards case over the entire forecast period 

(2016–2046). DOE’s approach for developing standards case SWEFs in this manner assumes 

10-7 
that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a 

rate which ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and 

base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the total installed cost versus 

efficiency relationship for each product class demonstrates an increasing cost rate for more 

efficient products, the SWEF growth rate for each standards case is lower than the SWEF growth 

rate for the base case. 

Depicting Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Trends 

Figures 10.2.2 and 10.2.3 show the SEER-based base case historical SWEFs, the base 

case forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for split 

system coil-only and blower coil CACs, respectively. Figure 10.2.4 shows the SEER-based 

SWEFs for single package CACs. Looking at each figure closely, it can be seen that the 

standards case SWEF growth rates are slightly lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base 

case. Note that for some standards cases, the efficiency trend does not increase past the Max 

Tech level. The Max Tech levels for split system coil-only and blower coil units are 16.5 SEER 

and 22 SEER, respectively. The Max Tech level for single package units is 16.6 SEER. 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

SWEF (SEER) 

Base Case 

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER 

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER 

Figure 10.2.2 Split System CAC, Coil Only Units: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and 

Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base Case and Standards Cases 

10-8 
 

 

 

SWEF (SEER) 

22 

21 

20 

19 

18 

17 

16 

15 

14 

13 

12 

11 

10 

1990 

Base Case 

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER 

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER 

CSL 8: 17 SEER 

CSL 9: 18 SEER 

CSl 10: 19 SEER 

CSL 11: 20 SEER 

CSL 12: 21 SEER 

CSL 13: 22 SEER 

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Figure 10.2.3	 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: SEER-based Historical SWEFs 

and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for Base Case and Standards Cases 

17 

Base Case 

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER 16
 CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

15 CSL 4: 15 SEER 

SWEF (SEER) 13 

14 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.6 SEER 

12 

11 

10 

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 

Year 

2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Figure 10.2.4 Single Package CAC: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted
 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases 

10-9 
 

 

10.2.1.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions 

Once DOE developed base case and standards case efficiency trends, it derived a 

distribution of product efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis 

period (2016–2046) by developing appropriate market shares for the various standard levels. 

As specified in Tables 10.2.1, 10.2.2, and 10.2.3, DOE developed the product efficiency 

distributions for the year the standard is assumed to become effective (2016) using a “roll-up” 

scenario. For subsequent years (2017–2046), DOE assigned the market shares to the standard 

levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained equal to the forecasted SWEF. This 

assignment was conducted by pulling market shares from lower efficiency levels to higher 

efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the forecasted value. 

Tables 10.2.4 and 10.2.5 provide examples of forecasted efficiency distributions—the 

specific cases of the forecasted efficiency distributions for the base case (without standards) for 

split system coil-only and blower coil central air conditioners, respectively. As an example for 

single package central air conditioners, Table 10.2.6 provides the forecasted efficiency 

distributions for the base case. The tables also provide the resulting SWEF for each year during 

the forecast period. The NIA spreadsheet (detailed in Appendix 10-A) provides the forecasted 

efficiency distributions for all the standards cases for both split system and single package 

CACs. 

10-10 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.2.5 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and 

SWEFs 

Year 

Market Shares by SEER Level 

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 SWEF

2016 24.6% 56.4% 4.1% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.65 

2017 10.6% 70.5% 4.1% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.72 

2018 0.0% 77.5% 7.6% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.79 

2019 0.0% 63.5% 21.7% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.86 

2020 0.0% 49.4% 35.7% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 13.93 

2021 0.0% 35.3% 49.8% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.00 

2022 0.0% 21.3% 63.9% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.07 

2023 0.0% 7.2% 77.9% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.14 

2024 0.0% 0.0% 78.3% 12.3% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.21 

2025 0.0% 0.0% 64.2% 26.3% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.28 

2026 0.0% 0.0% 50.1% 40.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.35 

2027 0.0% 0.0% 36.1% 54.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.42 

2028 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 68.5% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.49 

2029 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 82.6% 3.3% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.56 

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.4% 9.5% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.63 

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.3% 23.5% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.70 

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.3% 37.6% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.77 

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.2% 51.6% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.84 

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.1% 65.7% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.91 

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 79.8% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 14.98 

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93.8% 2.1% 3.6% 0.5% 15.05 

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79.8% 16.1% 3.6% 0.5% 15.12 

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.7% 30.2% 3.6% 0.5% 15.19 

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51.7% 44.2% 3.6% 0.5% 15.26 

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.6% 58.3% 3.6% 0.5% 15.34 

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 72.4% 3.6% 0.5% 15.41 

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 86.4% 3.6% 0.5% 15.48 

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91.3% 8.2% 0.5% 15.55 

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 77.2% 22.2% 0.5% 15.62 

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63.2% 36.3% 0.5% 15.69 

2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.1% 50.4% 0.5% 15.76 

10-11 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.2.6 Split System CAC, Blower Coil Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and 

SWEFs 

Year 

Market Shares by SEER Level 

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 18 19 20 21 22 SWEF

2016 18.5% 42.3% 3.1% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 14.81 

2017 4.4% 56.4% 3.1% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 14.88 

2018 0.0% 51.1% 12.7% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 14.95 

2019 0.0% 37.0% 26.8% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.02 

2020 0.0% 23.0% 40.9% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.09 

2021 0.0% 8.9% 54.9% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.16 

2022 0.0% 0.0% 58.7% 9.2% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.23 

2023 0.0% 0.0% 44.6% 23.3% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.30 

2024 0.0% 0.0% 30.6% 37.3% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.37 

2025 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 51.4% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.44 

2026 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 65.4% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.51 

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.3% 14.1% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.58 

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.2% 28.2% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.65 

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.1% 42.2% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.72 

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 56.3% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.79 

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.4% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.86 

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.3% 15.6% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 15.93 

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.3% 29.7% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.00 

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.2% 43.7% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.07 

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 57.8% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.14 

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 71.8% 2.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.21 

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57.9% 16.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.28 

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.9% 30.7% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.35 

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 29.8% 44.8% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.42 

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 58.9% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.49 

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 72.9% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.56 

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62.2% 12.8% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.63 

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 48.2% 26.8% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.70 

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.1% 40.9% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.77 

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 55.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.84 

2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 69.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 16.92 

10-12 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.2.7 Single Package CAC: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs 

Year 

Market Share by SEER Level 

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.6 SWEF

2016 75.0% 20.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.17 

2017 59.4% 35.6% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.25 

2018 43.9% 51.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.33 

2019 28.3% 66.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.40 

2020 12.8% 82.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.48 

2021 0.0% 92.2% 4.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.56 

2022 0.0% 76.6% 20.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.64 

2023 0.0% 61.1% 35.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.71 

2024 0.0% 45.5% 51.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.79 

2025 0.0% 30.0% 67.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.87 

2026 0.0% 14.4% 82.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.95 

2027 0.0% 0.0% 95.8% 3.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.03 

2028 0.0% 0.0% 80.3% 18.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.10 

2029 0.0% 0.0% 64.7% 34.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.18 

2030 0.0% 0.0% 49.2% 49.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.26 

2031 0.0% 0.0% 33.6% 65.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.34 

2032 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 81.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.41 

2033 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 96.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.49 

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 85.9% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.57 

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.4% 29.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.65 

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54.8% 45.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.73 

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.3% 60.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.80 

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 76.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.88 

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 91.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.96 

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.04 

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 77.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.11 

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 61.5% 38.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.19 

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45.9% 54.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.27 

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.3% 69.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.35 

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 85.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.43 

2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.2% 0.8% 0.0% 15.50 

10.2.2 Heat Pumps 

10.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies 

For both HP product classes—split systems and single package systems—DOE 

developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific efficiency 

10-13 
 

levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE determined the distribution of product efficiencies 

currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER-based SWEF for the year 2016. DOE derived its 

base-case efficiency distributions for split system and single package HPs on SWEF data 

provided by AHRI in combination with the range of product offerings in AHRI’s listing of 

certified unitary HP equipment. For more details on the derivation of the split system and single 

package base case efficiencies, refer to section 8.2.3.8 of chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis. 

AHRI’s SWEF data for HPs was based solely on SEER—not HSPF. To determine 

HSPF-based SWEFs for the base case, DOE used the SEER and HSPF pairings presented in 

section 5.9.1 of chapter 5, Engineering Analysis, to define the relationship between SEER and 

HSPF for both split system and single package HPs. The SEER and HSPF pairings for split 

system HPs are graphically presented in Figure 10.2.5. As is evident from this figure, the 

relationship can be represented accurately with a second-order polynomial expression. 

10.5 

10.0 

9.5 

9.0 

8.5 

8.0 

7.5 

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 

SEER 

Figure 10.2.5 Split System HP: HSPF and SEER relationship 

The SEER and HSPF pairings for single package HPs are graphically presented in Figure 10.2.6. 

For single package units, the HSPF is dependent on the following ranges of SEER: 

SEER < 14, HSPF = 0.30 * SEER + 3.80; 

14 ≤ SEER < 15, HSPF = 8.0; 

10-14 

HSPF 

HSPF = 0.025 * SEER2 - 0.408 * SEER + 8.789 
15 ≤ SEER < 16, HSPF = 1.0 * SEER + 7.00; and 

SEER ≥ 16, HSPF = 9.00. 

HSPF 

9.5 

9.0 

8.5 

HSPF = 0.30 * SEER + 3.80 

SEER < 14 

HSPF = 8.00 

14 < SEER < 15 

HSPF = 1.00 * SEER - 7.00 

15 < SEER < 16 

HSPF = 9.00 

SEER > 16 

8.0 

7.5 

12 16 17 

Figure 10.2.6 Single Package HP: HSPF and SEER relationship 

For its determination of standards-case efficiencies, DOE assumed a “roll-up” scenario to 

establish both a SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to 

become effective (i.e., 2016). Using the same method as was developed for CACs, DOE 

assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under 

consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. Also, DOE assumed that all 

product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under consideration would not 

be affected. 

Tables 10.2.8 and 10.2.9 present the efficiency distributions and resulting SEER-based 

and HSPF-based SWEFs for the base case and standards cases for split system and single 

package HPs, respectively. Each table clearly shows how each standards case, under a “roll-up” 

scenario, affects the efficiency distribution. 

13 14 15 

SEER 

10-15 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.2.8 Split System HP: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases 

in 2016 

CSL SEER HSPF 

Market Share 

Base 

Case 

Standards Case 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

Baseline 13.0 7.7 13% - - - - - - - - - -

1 13.5 7.9 52% 65% - - - - - - - - -

2 14.0 8.0 10% 10% 75% - - - - - - - -

3 14.5 8.2 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 84% - - - - - - -

4 15.0 8.3 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 89.5% - - - - - -

5 15.5 8.5 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 93% - - - - -

6 16.0 8.6 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 96% - - - -

7 17.0 9.1 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 98% - - -

8 18.0 9.6 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 99.5% - -

9 19.0 10.1 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 100% -

10 19.5 10.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 

SWEF (SEER) 13.97 14.03 14.36 14.73 15.15 15.60 16.07 17.03 18.01 19.00 19.50 

SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8.49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30 

Table 10.2.9 Single Package HP: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 

CSL SEER HSPF 

Market Share 

Base Case 

Standards Case 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Baseline 13.0 7.7 50% - - - - - - -

1 13.5 7.9 32% 82% - - - - - -

2 14.0 8.0 11% 11% 93% - - - - -

3 14.5 8.0 5% 5% 5% 98% - - - -

4 15.0 8.0 2% 2% 2% 2% 100% - - -

5 15.5 8.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% - -

6 16.0 9.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% -

7 16.4 9.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 

SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 

SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 

10.2.2.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends 

Historical Efficiency Trends 

Using the SWEF for the year 2016 as a starting point, DOE developed a SEER-based 

base case forecasted efficiency trend based on assumptions regarding future efficiency growth. 

To estimate SEER-based SWEFs over the 30 year forecast spanning 2016–2046 (2016 being the 

10-16 
 

 

 

assumed effective date of a new standard), DOE reviewed historical SWEF data provided by the 

Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) spanning the years 1992 to 2008.1 

Between 1992, the year in which the first set of standards for CAC and HPs became effective, 

and 2006, when an updated set of standards became effective, the SEER-based SWEFs for HPs 

grew by approximately one SEER point. Figure 10.2.7 shows the SEER-based SWEFs for split 

system and single package HPs. The figure also presents the linear fit to each product class’ 

SWEF data series. The linear fits have high coefficients of determination, i.e., linear fits provide 

a good estimate of the SWEF growth rate. Table 10.2.10 provides a summary of the SEERbased SWEF growth rates for each product class. 

Split HP 

SEER = 0.0739 * year - 136.55 

R2 = 0.9594 

Package HP 

SEER = 0.0736 * year - 136.03 

R2 = 0.8886 

10.2 

10.4 

10.6 

10.8 

11.0 

11.2 

11.4 

11.6 

11.8 

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted SEER 

Split HP 

Package HP 

Linear (Split HP) 

Linear (Package HP) 

Figure 10.2.7 Heat Pump Historical SWEFs based on SEER with Linear Fits 

Table 10.2.10 Heat Pump SWEF Growth Rates 

 SWEF Growth Rate 

Product Class SEER increase per year 

Split System Heat Pumps 0.0739 

Single Package Heat Pumps 0.0736 

Base Case Efficiency Trends 

Because various market-pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs 

were in existence from 1992 to 2005, the SEER-based SWEF growth rate evident in the 

historical data was likely due in part to these market-pull programs. As a result, DOE applied 

the SEER-based SWEF growth rates in Table 10.2.6 to the SWEFs in 2016 to forecast annual 

10-17 
 

 

 

SEER-based SWEFs for the HP product classes from 2016 to 2046. Application of the SWEF 

growth rates in this manner assumes that future market-pull programs will be as effective at 

increasing product efficiency as past programs. 

Standards Case Efficiency Trends 

To develop standards case forecasted SEER-based SWEFs, DOE developed growth 

trends for each candidate standard level that maintained the same per-unit average total installed 

cost difference for the year 2016 between the base case and each standards case over the entire 

forecast period (2016–2046). DOE’s approach for developing standards case SWEFs assumes 

that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a 

rate which ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and 

base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the total installed cost versus 

efficiency relationship for each product class demonstrates an increasing cost rate for more 

efficient products, the SEER-based SWEF growth rate for each standards case is lower than the 

SEER-based SWEF growth rate for the base case. 

Depicting Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Trends 

Figures 10.2.8 and 10.2.9 show the base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted 

efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for split system HP SEER 

and HSPF, respectively. The HSPF-based SWEFs were derived from the SEER-based SWEFs 

using the SEER and HSPF relationship for split systems presented in section 10.2.2.1. Looking 

at Figure 10.2.8 closely, it can be seen that the standards case SEER-based SWEF growth rates 

are slightly lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case. Note that for some standards 

cases, the efficiency trend does not increase past the Max Tech level. The Max Tech level for 

split systems is 19.5 SEER and 10.3 HSPF. 

10-18 
 

 

 

 

 

SWEF (SEER) 

20 

19 

18 

17 

16 

15 

14 

13 

12 

11 

10 

1990 

Base Case 

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER 

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 17 SEER 

CSL 8: 18 SEER 

CSl 9: 19 SEER 

CSL 10: 19.5 SEER 

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Figure 10.2.8	 Split System HP: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases 

10.5
 

Base Case
 

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER 10.0
 

CSL 2: 14 SEER
 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 9.5 

SWEF (HSPF) 

9.0 

8.5 

8.0 

7.5 

7.0 

1990 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 17 SEER 

CSL 8: 18 SEER 

CSl 9: 19 SEER 

CSL 10: 19.5 SEER 

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Figure 10.2.9	 Split System HP: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases 

10-19 
 

 

 

 

 

Figures 10.2.10 and 10.2.11 show the base case historical SWEFs, the base case 

forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for single 

package HP SEER and HSPF, respectively. The HSPF-based SWEFs were derived from the 

SEER-based SWEFs using the SEER and HSPF relationship for single package units presented 

in section 10.2.2.1. Looking at Figure 10.2.10 closely, it can be seen that the standards case 

SEER-based SWEF growth rates are slightly lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case. 

Note that for some standards cases, the efficiency trend does not increase past the Max Tech 

level. The Max Tech level for single package units is 16.4 SEER and 0.9 HSPF. 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

SWEF (SEER) 

Base Case 

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER 

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.4 SEER 

Figure 10.2.10 Single Package HP: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases 

10-20 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.5 

7.0 

7.5 

8.0 

8.5 

9.0 

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

SWEF (HSPF) 

Base Case 

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER 

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.4 SEER 

Figure 10.2.11 Single Package HP: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases 

10.2.2.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions 

Once DOE developed base case and standards case efficiency trends, it derived a 

distribution of product efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis 

period (2016–2046) by developing appropriate market shares for the various standard levels. 

As specified in Tables 10.2.8 and 10.2.9, DOE developed the product efficiency 

distributions for the year the standard is assumed to become effective (2016) using a “roll-up” 

scenario. For subsequent years (2017–2046), DOE assigned the market shares to the standard 

levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained equal to the forecasted SWEF. This 

assignment was conducted by pulling market shares from lower efficiency levels to higher 

efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the forecasted value. 

Tables 10.2.11 and 10.2.12 provide examples of forecasted efficiency distributions—the 

specific cases of the forecasted SEER-based efficiency distributions for the base case (without 

standards) for split system and single package HPs, respectively. The tables also provide the 

resulting SEER-based SWEF for each year during the forecast period. The NIA spreadsheet 

(detailed in Appendix 10-A) provides the forecasted efficiency distributions for all the standards 

cases for both split system and single package HPs. 

10-21 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.2.11 Split System HPs: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and 

SWEFs 

Year 

Market Shares by SEER Level 

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 17 18 19 19.5 SWEF

2016 13.0% 52.0% 10.0% 9.0% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 13.97 

2017 0.0% 63.2% 11.8% 9.0% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.04 

2018 0.0% 48.4% 26.6% 9.0% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.12 

2019 0.0% 33.7% 41.3% 9.0% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.19 

2020 0.0% 18.9% 56.1% 9.0% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.26 

2021 0.0% 4.1% 70.9% 9.0% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.34 

2022 0.0% 0.0% 64.3% 19.7% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.41 

2023 0.0% 0.0% 49.5% 34.5% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.48 

2024 0.0% 0.0% 34.7% 49.3% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.56 

2025 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 64.0% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.63 

2026 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 78.8% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.71 

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.4% 15.1% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.78 

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59.6% 29.9% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.85 

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.8% 44.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.93 

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 59.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.00 

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 74.2% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.08 

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 89.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.15 

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.2% 17.8% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.22 

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.4% 32.6% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.30 

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 47.4% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.37 

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.9% 62.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.45 

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 76.9% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.52 

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 91.7% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.59 

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79.5% 16.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.67 

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 64.7% 31.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.74 

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9% 46.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.82 

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35.2% 60.8% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.89 

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 75.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.96 

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 90.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.04 

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91.4% 6.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.11 

2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.0% 14.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.18 

10-22 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.2.12 Single Package HPs: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and 

SWEFs 

Year 

Market Share by SEER Level 

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.4 SWEF

2016 50.0% 32.0% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.39 

2017 35.3% 46.7% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.46 

2018 20.6% 61.4% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.53 

2019 5.9% 76.1% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.61 

2020 0.0% 73.2% 19.8% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.68 

2021 0.0% 58.4% 34.6% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.75 

2022 0.0% 43.7% 49.3% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.83 

2023 0.0% 29.0% 64.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.90 

2024 0.0% 14.3% 78.7% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.97 

2025 0.0% 0.0% 92.6% 5.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.05 

2026 0.0% 0.0% 77.9% 20.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.12 

2027 0.0% 0.0% 63.2% 34.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.19 

2028 0.0% 0.0% 48.5% 49.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.27 

2029 0.0% 0.0% 33.7% 64.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.34 

2030 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 79.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.41 

2031 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 93.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.49 

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.6% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.56 

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 72.9% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.64 

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.2% 41.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.71 

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.5% 56.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.78 

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.8% 71.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.86 

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 85.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.93 

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.00 

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.6% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.08 

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 69.9% 30.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.15 

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55.2% 44.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.22 

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.5% 59.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.30 

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.8% 74.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.37 

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 88.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.44 

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.4% 3.6% 0.0% 15.52 

2046 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 81.7% 18.3% 0.0% 15.59 

10.3 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS 

This section describes DOE’s calculation of national energy savings (NES) and regional 

energy savings (RES) for central air conditioners and heat pumps under various CSLs or 

standards cases. Similar methods are used to calculate energy savings for the Nation and for each 

10-23 
 

 

of the three climate regions that are evaluated separately (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the 

Nation). 

10.3.1 Definition 

As the following equation illustrates, DOE calculates annual NES and RES as the 

difference between two projections: a base case (without new standards) and a standards case 

(with new standards). Positive values of NES or RES indicate energy savings (i.e., annual energy 

consumption (AEC) in the standards case is less than AEC in the base case). The calculation of 

annual nation energy savings (NESy) and annual regional energy savings (RESy) are represented 

by the following expressions. 

_ NES y = AECnatl −base AECnatl −std 

_ REGy = AECreg −base AECreg −std 

Cumulative energy savings are the sum over the forecast period, which extends from a standard’s 

assumed effective date (2016), to 30 years after the effective date (2046), of the annual NES and 

annual RES for each region. This calculation is represented by the following equations for : 

NES cum = ∑ NES y 

REScum = ∑RESy 

 DOE calculated AEC by multiplying the number or stock of a given product (by vintage) 

by its unit energy consumption (also by vintage). The calculation of the national and each 

regional AEC is represented by the following equation: 

AEC = ∑STOCKV ×UECV 

DOE defined the variables in the above expressions as follows: 

AEC = annual energy consumption each year for the Nation or region in quadrillion 

British thermal units (Btus)—or quads—summed over vintages of the product 

stock, STOCKV; 

NESy = national annual energy savings (quads); 

RESy = regional annual energy savings (quads); 

NEScum = national cumulative energy savings (quads); 

REScum = regional cumulative energy savings (quads); 

STOCKV = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for which 

DOE calculated annual energy consumption (vintages range from approximately 

10-24 
two to approximately 50 years, depending on the retirement function of the 

product); 

UECV = annual energy consumption per product in kilowatt-hours (kWh); electricity 

consumption is converted from site energy to source energy (quads) by applying a 

time-dependent conversion factor; 

natl = designates the quantity corresponds to the Nation; 

reg = designates the quantity corresponds to a region; 

base = designates the quantity corresponds to the base case; 

std = designates the quantity corresponds to the standards case; 

y = year in the forecast (2016–2046); and 

cum = cumulative over the forecast period (2016–2046); and 

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit. 

The stock of equipment depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the given 

product. As described in chapter 9, DOE projected shipments for the base case and standards 

cases. 

10.3.2 Inputs to Calculation 

The inputs for calculating national and regional energy savings are: 

• Average annual energy consumption per unit (UEC), 

• shipments, 

• equipment stock (STOCKV), 

• annual energy consumption for the Nation or a give region (AEC), and 

• site-to-source conversion factor (src_conv). 

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit 

For each product class, DOE presented the per-unit annual energy consumption as a 

function of product efficiency in chapter 6, Energy Use Determination. Because the per-unit 

annual energy consumption is directly dependent on efficiency, DOE used the shipmentsweighted energy efficiency (SWEF) of the base and standards cases presented in section 10.2, 

along with the annual energy use data presented in chapters 6 and 8, to estimate the shipmentweighted average annual per-unit energy consumption (UEC) under the base and standards 

cases. The following sections describe DOE’s calculation of the shipment-weighted average 

annual UEC for both product classes of CAC and HPs. 

Split System CACs 

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system CACs on data presented in 

chapter 6. Based on the relationship between CAC efficiency (SEER) and annual UEC, Table 

10.3.1 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual UECs in the year 

2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction coil-only installations 

for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table 

10-25 
10.3.2 presents the same UEC data but for coil-only units installed as either replacements or for 

new owners. In both tables, UECs are presented for both residential and commercial 

installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual UEC is 

also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.1 demonstrates how the UECs for new construction coil-only installations for the 

base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. Because SWEFs in the 

base case and each standards case were forecasted to increase over the forecast period, the 

corresponding UEC decreases over time. As noted earlier in section 10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach 

for forecasting standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient 

products under the standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the shipmentweighted average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over 

the entire forecast period be held constant. Because the total installed cost versus efficiency 

relationship for split system coil-only CACs demonstrates an increasing cost rate for more 

efficient products, the SWEF growth rate for each standards case is lower than the SWEF growth 

rate for the base case. This is evident in Figure 10.3.1 as the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs 

between CSL 2 and the base case decreases over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max 

Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted 

UEC have achieved their maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first year that the 

standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.3.1 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50 

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Sector Region 

Resid. 

Nation 2351 2328 2260 2193 2126 2061 2000 1939 

Hot-Humid 3458 3425 3324 3226 3128 3033 2942 2853 

Hot-Dry 1998 1979 1921 1864 1807 1752 1700 1648 

Rest-of-Country 1252 1240 1203 1167 1132 1098 1065 1032 

Comm. 

Nation 2338 2331 2307 2260 2210 2157 2104 2091 

Hot-Humid 2637 2627 2596 2545 2490 2432 2374 2357 

Hot-Dry 2403 2395 2370 2321 2269 2215 2160 2147 

Rest-of-Country 2053 2048 2032 1989 1943 1896 1848 1840 

10-26 
 

Table 10.3.2	 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base 

and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50 

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Sector Region 

Resid. 

Nation 2287 2265 2199 2133 2069 2006 1945 1887 

Hot-Humid 3472 3439 3338 3239 3140 3045 2953 2864 

Hot-Dry 2076 2056 1996 1936 1878 1821 1766 1713 

Rest-of-Country 1268 1256 1219 1182 1146 1112 1078 1046 

Comm. 

Nation 2345 2338 2314 2267 2216 2164 2110 2098 

Hot-Humid 2607 2598 2567 2516 2461 2405 2347 2331 

Hot-Dry 2375 2368 2344 2295 2244 2191 2136 2123 

Rest-of-Country 2050 2045 2029 1986 1941 1894 1846 1837 

1800 

1850 

1900 

1950 

2000 

2050 

2100 

2150 

2200 

2250 

2300 

2350 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average 

Annual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.5 SER) 

Figure 10.3.1	 Split System CAC, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base 

Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

10-27 
 

 

 

Table 10.3.3 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual UECs 

in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction blower coil 

installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-ofcountry). Table 10.3.4 presents the same UEC data but for blower coil units installed as either 

replacements or for new owners. In both tables, UECs are presented for both residential and 

commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted 

annual UEC is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.2 demonstrates how the UECs for new construction blower coil installations for the 

base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 9, and CSL 13) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for coil-only units, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between the 

CSLs and the base case decrease over time. This is not evident in CSL 13, the Max Tech 

standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted UEC 

have achieved their maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first year that the 

standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.3.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 

SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Sector Region 

Resid. 

Nation 2229 2212 2160 2109 2059 2010 1963 1917 1874 1784 1697 1616 1541 1471 

Hot-Humid 3310 3285 3207 3132 3057 2984 2914 2846 2782 2649 2519 2399 2288 2185 

Hot-Dry 1906 1891 1847 1803 1760 1718 1678 1639 1602 1525 1451 1382 1318 1258 

Rest-of-Cntry 1150 1142 1115 1088 1062 1037 1013 989 967 921 876 834 795 759 

Comm. 

Nation 2287 2282 2264 2228 2190 2150 2110 2100 2091 2069 2045 2020 1995 1970 

Hot-Humid 2532 2525 2502 2464 2423 2380 2336 2324 2312 2284 2253 2222 2190 2157 

Hot-Dry 2306 2300 2282 2245 2207 2167 2126 2116 2106 2084 2059 2034 2008 1982 

Rest-of-Cntry 1987 1984 1971 1940 1906 1870 1834 1828 1821 1806 1790 1774 1757 1740 

10-28 
 

 

 

 

Table 10.3.4	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: Replacement and 

New Owner Markets, Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 

SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Sector Region 

Resid. 

Nation 2167 2150 2100 2050 2001 1954 1908 1863 1821 1734 1649 1571 1498 1431 

Hot-Humid 3257 3232 3156 3082 3008 2937 2868 2801 2738 2606 2479 2361 2252 2150 

Hot-Dry 1933 1918 1873 1829 1785 1742 1702 1662 1624 1546 1471 1401 1336 1276 

Rest-of-Cntry 1180 1171 1143 1116 1090 1064 1039 1015 992 944 898 855 816 779 

Comm. 

Nation 2274 2269 2251 2215 2177 2138 2098 2088 2079 2057 2033 2009 1984 1959 

Hot-Humid 2546 2539 2516 2477 2436 2393 2349 2337 2325 2296 2265 2234 2201 2168 

Hot-Dry 2311 2305 2287 2250 2212 2172 2131 2121 2111 2088 2064 2038 2012 1986 

Rest-of-Cntry 1989 1985 1973 1941 1907 1872 1836 1829 1823 1808 1792 1775 1758 1741 

1300 

1400 

1500 

1600 

1700 

1800 

1900 

2000 

2100 

2200 

2300 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average

Annual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 9 (18 SEER) 

CSL 13 (22 SEER) 

Figure 10.3.2	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-

2046 Forecast Period 

10-29 
Central Air Conditioners—Single Package System 

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of single package CACs on data presented 

in chapter 6. Based on the relationship between CAC efficiency (SEER) and annual UEC, Table 

10.3.5 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual UECs in the year 

2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Unlike split systems, the UECs for single 

package systems do not vary based on the installation (i.e., new construction, replacement, or 

new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for both residential and commercial 

installations. Also, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual UEC is also 

provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.3 demonstrates how the UECs for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and 

CSL 7) change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil-only and blower coil split 

system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between the CSL 2 and 

the base case decrease over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as 

the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted UEC have achieved 

their maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first year that the standard is assumed 

to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.3.5	 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average perUnit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Sector Region 

Resid. 

Nation 2346 2280 2202 2129 2058 1992 1930 1860 

Hot-Humid 3627 3525 3405 3291 3182 3080 2983 2876 

Hot-Dry 2123 2063 1993 1926 1863 1803 1746 1683 

Rest-of-Country 1292 1256 1213 1173 1134 1097 1063 1025 

Comm. 

Nation 2376 2354 2327 2273 2218 2162 2106 2091 

Hot-Humid 2662 2634 2598 2540 2480 2419 2359 2339 

Hot-Dry 2422 2399 2370 2315 2259 2202 2145 2129 

Rest-of-Country 2071 2057 2038 1989 1940 1890 1840 1830 

10-30 
 

 

1800 

1900 

2000 

2100 

2200 

2300 

2400 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average 

Annual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.6 SER) 

Figure 10.3.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base 

Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

Heat Pumps—Split System 

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system HPs on data presented in 

chapter 6. Based on the relationship between HP efficiency and annual UEC, Table 10.3.6 

presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual space-cooling and spaceheating UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). The UECs for 

split system heat pumps do not vary based on the installation (i.e., new construction, 

replacement, or new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for both residential and 

commercial installations. Also, the SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEFs corresponding to the 

shipment-weighted annual space-cooling and space-heating UECs, respectively, are also 

provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figures 10.3.4 and 10.3.5 demonstrate how the space-cooling and space-heating UECs, 

respectively, for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 7, and CSL 10) change 

over time. For the same reasons given above for split system and single package central air 

conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between the CSLs and the base case 

decrease over time. This is not evident in CSL 10, the Max Tech standards case, as the 

10-31 
 

 

 

 

 

shipment-weighted SWEFs and the corresponding shipment-weighted UECs have achieved their 

maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first year that the standard is assumed to 

become effective (2016). 

Table 10.3.6	 Split System Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

SWEF (SEER) 13.77 13.89 14.28 14.70 15.14 15.59 16.06 17.03 18.02 19.01 19.50 

SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8.49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30 

Cooling 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Sector Region 

Resid. 

Nation 3337 3320 3240 3154 3065 2975 2888 2725 2576 2441 2379 

Hot-Humid 4109 4087 3989 3884 3773 3664 3556 3355 3172 3006 2929 

Hot-Dry 4054 4033 3936 3832 3724 3615 3509 3310 3130 2966 2890 

Rest-of-Country 1840 1831 1787 1740 1690 1641 1593 1503 1421 1346 1312 

Comm. 

Nation 2366 2364 2354 2315 2271 2224 2175 2149 2123 2096 2082 

Hot-Humid 2643 2640 2627 2585 2538 2488 2436 2402 2368 2333 2316 

Hot-Dry 2398 2396 2386 2346 2301 2253 2204 2177 2149 2121 2107 

Rest-of-Country 2070 2069 2062 2026 1986 1943 1898 1881 1863 1844 1835 

Heating 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Resid. 

Nation 1779 1775 1753 1728 1702 1674 1647 1560 1480 1407 1380 

Hot-Humid 1306 1303 1287 1269 1249 1229 1209 1145 1087 1033 1013 

Hot-Dry 949 946 935 922 907 893 878 832 789 750 736 

Rest-of-Country 2998 2991 2953 2912 2867 2822 2776 2629 2494 2371 2325 

Comm. 

Nation 463 463 462 463 464 465 466 464 462 459 458 

Hot-Humid 215 215 215 215 215 215 216 215 213 212 212 

Hot-Dry 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 120 120 

Rest-of-Country 1065 1064 1062 1064 1066 1068 1070 1066 1061 1056 1053 

10-32 
2300 

2500 

2700 

2900 

3100 

3300 

3500 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average

Annual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (17 SEER) 

CSL 10 (19.5 SEER) 

Figure 10.3.4	 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and 

Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

10-33 
1300 

1350 

1400 

1450 

1500 

1550 

1600 

1650 

1700 

1750 

1800 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average

Annual Heating Energy Use (kWh/yr) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (17 SEER) 

CSL 10 (19.5 SEER) 

Figure 10.3.5	 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and 

Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

Heat Pumps—Single Package System 

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system heat pumps (HPs) on data 

presented in chapter 6. Based on the relationship between HP efficiency and annual UEC, Table 

10.3.7 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual space-cooling and 

space-heating UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). The UECs 

for split system heat pumps do not vary based on the installation (i.e., new construction, 

replacement, or new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for both residential and 

commercial installations. Also, the SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEFs corresponding to the 

shipment-weighted annual space-cooling and space-heating UECs, respectively, are also 

provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figures 10.3.6 and 10.3.7 demonstrate how the space-cooling and space-heating UECs, 

respectively, for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. 

For the same reasons given above for split system heat pumps, the gap in the shipment-weighted 

UECs between the CSL 2 and the base case decrease over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the 

Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEFs and the corresponding shipment10-34 
weighted UECs have achieved their maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the first 

year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.3.7	 Single Package Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 

SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 

Cooling 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Sector Region 

Resid. 

Nation 3446 3380 3280 3175 3071 2972 2879 2809 

Hot-Humid 4294 4212 4087 3956 3826 3703 3587 3500 

Hot-Dry 4223 4143 4020 3891 3764 3642 3529 3443 

Rest-of-Country 1899 1863 1808 1750 1692 1638 1587 1548 

Comm. 

Nation 2392 2384 2372 2323 2272 2219 2167 2157 

Hot-Humid 2666 2656 2640 2588 2533 2478 2422 2408 

Hot-Dry 2429 2421 2408 2358 2306 2253 2200 2188 

Rest-of-Country 2102 2097 2088 2044 1997 1949 1900 1893 

Heating 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Resid. 

Nation 1790 1773 1745 1745 1745 1643 1551 1551 

Hot-Humid 1334 1321 1301 1301 1301 1224 1156 1156 

Hot-Dry 975 965 950 950 950 894 845 845 

Rest-of-Country 3056 3027 2980 2980 2980 2805 2649 2649 

Comm. 

Nation 477 476 475 476 477 478 479 478 

Hot-Humid 221 221 220 220 221 221 221 221 

Hot-Dry 125 125 124 125 125 125 125 125 

Rest-of-Country 1054 1052 1050 1052 1054 1057 1059 1057 

10-35 
2800 

2900 

3000 

3100 

3200 

3300 

3400 

3500 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average 

Annual Cooling Energy Use (kWh/yr) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.4 SER) 

Figure 10.3.6	 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case 

and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

10-36 
1500 

1550 

1600 

1650 

1700 

1750 

1800 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average

Annual Heating Energy Use (kWh/yr) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.4 SER) 

Figure 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case 

and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

10.3.2.2 Shipments including Equipment Switching 

DOE forecasted shipments for the base case and all standards cases for the Nation as a 

whole and for the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid region, 

hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). An extensive description of the methodology for conducting 

and generating the shipments forecasts for all four of the product classes is presented in Chapter 

9, Shipments Analysis. 

In projecting standards case shipments, DOE analyzed the combined effects of increased 

total installed costs (purchase price plus installation costs), operating cost savings, and household 

income on consumer replacement and new owner purchase decisions. DOE determined that 

increased total installed cost is the most significant effect and impacts consumer replacement and 

new owner purchase decisions. As described in section 9.3 of chapter 9, DOE treated the impact 

of total installed cost increases on standards case shipments differently for the new construction, 

replacement, and new owner markets. 

For new construction purchases of split system and single package CACs and HPs, DOE 

assumed consumers were unaffected by an increase in total installed cost. In other words, DOE 

10-37 
 

 

 

 

assumed new construction shipments under any standards case equaled new construction 

shipments under the base case. 

For replacement purchases of split system and single package CACs and HPs, DOE 

assumed consumers affected by an increase in total installed cost would repair their equipment 

rather than replace it, extending the life of the product by six years. 

For new owner purchases of split system and single package CACs, DOE assumed 

consumers affected by an increase in total installed cost would switch equipment and purchase a 

room air conditioner rather than a CAC. Because room air conditioners have lower cooling 

capacities and lower overall annual energy consumption than CACs, DOE did not explicitly 

account for the increased sales of room air conditioners in its analysis. Doing so would have 

credited a standard with energy savings from displaced CAC shipments. To avoid including 

savings from displaced shipments to new owners, DOE used the shipments projection estimates 

for the standards cases to calculate the annual energy consumption in the base case. 

For new owner purchases of split system and single package HPs, DOE assumed that 

consumers affected by an increase in total installed cost would switch equipment and purchase a 

combination electric resistance furnace and CAC rather than a HP. In its analysis of HP 

shipments in the NIA, DOE tracked purchases of electric furnaces and CACs due to decreases in 

shipments of HPs in order to quantify the energy impacts for consumers who were estimated to 

forgo purchasing a new HP. Because DOE explicitly accounted for the energy consumption of 

the displaced shipments of HPs, it maintained use of the base case shipments to determine the 

annual energy consumption in the base case. 

For the analysis of new owner purchases of split system HPs, DOE assumed that those 

consumers switching equipment would purchase a combination coil-only split system CAC and 

electric resistance furnace. For a given split system HP standard level, DOE assumed that the 

efficiency of the alternative split system CAC would be equal to the SEER of the foregone HP. 

As a result, DOE assumed the space-cooling UEC of the alternative split system CAC was no 

different than the space-cooling UEC of the forgone split system HP. The exception pertains to 

HP standard levels of 17 SEER and greater. The alternative coil-only split system CAC has a 

maximum efficiency of 16.5 SEER while the split system HP has a higher maximum efficiency 

level of 19.5 SEER. Therefore, for split system HP standard levels of 17 SEER and higher, the 

efficiency of the alternative coil-only split system CAC was held at 16.5 SEER. 

Correspondingly, at these maximum efficiency levels, the space-cooling UEC of the alternative 

split system CAC was greater than the UEC of the forgone split system HP which it was 

replacing. On the space-heating side, DOE assumed the UEC of the replacement electric 

resistance furnace had a coefficient of performance (COP) of 1.0 (equivalent to a 3.41 HSPF). 

Therefore, the electric furnace space-heating UEC was assumed to equal the space-heating UEC 

of the forgone HP at the base case level multiplied by the ratio of the HP efficiency at the base 

case level and the electric furnace efficiency. Table 10.3.8 presents the space-cooling and spaceheating UECs of the alternative coil-only split system CAC and electric furnace combination in 

the year 2016. UECs are provided for each of the candidate standard levels considered for split 

system HPs. As with the space-cooling UECs for heat pumps, the space-cooling UECs of the 

10-38 
 

 

 

 

alternative split system CACs also decrease over the forecast period of 2016─2046 because of 

the adoption of more efficient equipment over time (refer to Figure 10.3.4 for split system HPs). 

Because electric resistance furnaces only have a single efficiency (COP = 1.0), the space-heating 

UECs of electric furnaces remain constant over the forecast period. 

Table 10.3.8	 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Split System Heat 

Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption 

of Alternative Combination Coil-Only Split System Central Air Conditioner 

and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Split Heat Pump Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

Cooling 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Sector Region 

Resid. 

Nation 3407 3374 3275 3178 3081 2988 2898 2728 2728 2728 2728 

Hot-Humid 4195 4155 4033 3913 3794 3679 3568 3359 3359 3359 3359 

Hot-Dry 4140 4100 3979 3861 3744 3630 3521 3315 3315 3315 3315 

Rest-of-Country 1879 1861 1806 1753 1699 1648 1598 1505 1505 1505 1505 

Comm. 

Nation 2385 2381 2368 2324 2276 2227 2177 2150 2150 2150 2150 

Hot-Humid 2664 2659 2642 2595 2544 2492 2438 2403 2403 2403 2403 

Hot-Dry 2417 2413 2400 2355 2306 2256 2205 2177 2177 2177 2177 

Rest-of-Country 2086 2083 2075 2034 1990 1945 1899 1881 1881 1881 1881 

Heating 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Resid. 

Nation 4173 4173 4171 4169 4168 4168 4167 4166 4166 4166 4166 

Hot-Humid 3063 3063 3062 3061 3060 3060 3059 3058 3058 3058 3058 

Hot-Dry 2225 2225 2224 2224 2223 2223 2222 2222 2222 2222 2222 

Rest-of-Country 7032 7032 7029 7026 7025 7023 7022 7021 7020 7020 7020 

Comm. 

Nation 1086 1089 1100 1117 1137 1157 1178 1238 1299 1360 1384 

Hot-Humid 505 506 511 519 527 536 546 573 601 629 639 

Hot-Dry 283 284 287 292 297 302 307 323 339 355 362 

Rest-of-Country 2496 2502 2528 2568 2612 2659 2708 2846 2985 3125 3179 

For the analysis of new owner purchases of single package HPs, DOE assumed that those 

consumers switching equipment would purchase a combination single package CAC and electric 

furnace. For a given single package HP standard level, DOE assumed that the efficiency of the 

alternative single package CAC would be equal to the SEER of the foregone HP. As a result, the 

space-cooling UEC of the alternative single package CAC was assumed to be no different than 

the space-cooling UEC of the forgone single package HP. The one exception pertains to the 

maximum efficiency HP standard level of 16.4 SEER. The alternative single package CAC has a 

maximum efficiency of 16.6 SEER. Therefore, for the single package HP standard levels of 16.4 

SEER, the efficiency of the alternative single package CAC was set at 16.6 SEER. 

Correspondingly, at the maximum efficiency level, the space-cooling UEC of the alternative 

10-39 
 

single package CAC was slightly less than the UEC of the forgone single package HP which it 

was replacing. On the space-heating side, DOE assumed the UEC of the replacement electric 

furnace had a coefficient of performance (COP) of 1.0 (equivalent to a 3.41 HSPF). Therefore, 

the electric furnace space-heating UEC was assumed to equal the space-heating UEC of the 

forgone HP at the base case level multiplied by the ratio of the HP efficiency at the base case 

level and the electric furnace efficiency. Table 10.3.9 presents the space-cooling and spaceheating UECs of the alternative single package CAC and electric furnace combination. UECs 

are provided for each of the candidate standard levels considered for single package HPs. As 

with the space-cooling UECs for heat pumps, the space-cooling UECs of the alternative single 

package CACs will also decrease over the forecast period of 2016─2046 because of the adoption 

of more efficient equipment over time (refer to Figure 10.3.6 for single package HPs). Because 

electric resistance furnaces only have a single efficiency (COP = 1.0), the space-heating UECs of 

electric furnaces remain constant over the forecast period. 

Table 10.3.9 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Single Package Heat 

Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption 

of Alternative Combination Single Package Central Air Conditioner and 

Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Single Package Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Cooling 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Sector Region 

Resid. 

Nation 3500 3402 3286 3176 3071 2972 2879 2809 

Hot-Humid 4361 4239 4094 3957 3826 3703 3587 3500 

Hot-Dry 4290 4169 4027 3892 3764 3642 3529 3443 

Rest-of-Country 1929 1875 1811 1750 1692 1638 1587 1548 

Comm. 

Nation 2400 2389 2374 2323 2272 2219 2167 2157 

Hot-Humid 2676 2662 2643 2589 2533 2478 2422 2408 

Hot-Dry 2438 2426 2410 2359 2306 2253 2200 2188 

Rest-of-Country 2109 2101 2091 2044 1997 1949 1900 1893 

Heating 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Resid. 

Nation 4071 4092 4092 4092 4092 4092 4092 4092 

Hot-Humid 3054 3050 3050 3050 3050 3050 3050 3050 

Hot-Dry 2238 2228 2228 2228 2228 2228 2228 2228 

Rest-of-Country 6970 6988 6987 6987 6987 6987 6987 6987 

Comm. 

Nation 1089 1100 1115 1117 1119 1192 1264 1262 

Hot-Humid 505 510 516 517 518 551 584 583 

Hot-Dry 285 288 292 292 293 312 331 330 

Rest-of-Country 2406 2429 2462 2467 2472 2633 2794 2788 

10-40 
 

 

 

10.3.2.3 Equipment Stock 

The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime 

of a given product class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each year. 

The lifetime of a unit (18.3 years for CACs and 15.5 years for heat pumps) determines how 

many units shipped in previous years survive in the given year. DOE assumes that products have 

an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of survival as a function of years 

since purchase is termed the survival function. Refer to chapter 8, section 8.2.3.5 for further 

details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis. 

10.3.2.4 Annual Energy Consumption 

For each product class, DOE calculated national annual energy consumption (AEC) and 

AECs for each of the three climate regions being evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, 

and rest of the Nation). Annual energy consumption is the product of the AEC per unit [also 

termed the unit energy consumption (UEC)] and the number of units of each vintage. This 

method accounts for differences in UEC from year to year. The equation for determining annual 

energy consumption, presented in section 10.3.1, is repeated here. 

AEC = ∑STOCKV ×UECV 

10.3.2.5 Site-to-Source Energy Conversion Factors 

In determining annual energy consumption for the Nation and for each of the three 

regions being evaluated separately, DOE initially calculated the annual energy consumption at 

the site (i.e., the energy in kWh consumed at the household or establishment). It then derived 

primary (source) energy from site energy consumption by applying a conversion factor to 

account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. 

The site-to-source conversion factor is a multiplicative factor used for converting site energy 

consumption into primary or source energy consumption, expressed in quads. DOE used annual 

site-to-source conversion factors based on the version of the National Energy Modeling System 

(NEMS) that corresponds to Energy Information Administration (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook 

2009 (AEO 2009).2

 The factors used are marginal values, which represent the response of the 

electrical system to an incremental decrease in consumption. The conversion factors change over 

time, in response to projected changes in generation sources (the types of power plants projected 

to provide electricity to the country). DOE assumed that conversion factors remain constant at 

2030 values throughout the rest of forecast period. Table 10.3.10 shows the site-to-source 

conversion factors from 2005 to the end of the forecast period (2046). 

10-41 
 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.3.10 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

Year 

Electricity 

Btu/kWh Year 

Electricity 

Btu/kWh 

2005 11,500 2011 9,737 

2006 11,500 2012 9,649 

2007 11,200 2013 9,649 

2008 10,000 2014 8,649 

2009 9,737 2015 7,324 

2010 9,737 2016-2070 7,024 

10.4 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL NET PRESENT VALUE 

This section describes DOE’s calculation of the national and regional net present value 

(NPV) of costs and savings for the four product classes of central air conditioners and heat 

pumps under various candidate standards levels. Calculations were performed for the national 

NPV and NPVs for each of the three climate regions that are evaluated separately (hot-humid, 

hot-dry, and the rest of the Nation). 

10.4.1 Definition 

The NPV is the value in the present of a time-series of costs and savings. The NPV for 

the Nation as a whole and the three regions evaluated separately is described by the equation: 

_ NPV = PVS PVC 

Where: 

PVS = present value of savings in operating cost (including costs for energy, repair, and 

maintenance); and 

PVC = present value of increase in total installed cost (including costs for equipment and 

installation). 

DOE determined the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions. 

PVS = ∑OCSy × DFy 

PVC = ∑TICy × DFy 

DOE calculated the total annual savings in operating cost for the Nation as a whole and 

the three regions evaluated separately by multiplying the number or stock of a given product (by 

vintage) by its per-unit operating cost savings (also by vintage). DOE calculated the total annual 

10-42 
 

 

 

 

increase in installed cost for the Nation as a whole and the three regions by multiplying the 

number or stock of a given product (by vintage) by its per-unit total installed cost increase (also 

by vintage). Total annual savings in operating cost and increases in installed cost are calculated 

using the following equations. 

OCS y = ∑STOCKV ×UOCSV 

TIC y = ∑STOCKV ×UTICV 

DOE defined the variables in the above expressions as follows. 

OCS = total annual savings in operating cost each year summed over vintages of the 

product stock, STOCKV; 

TIC = total annual increase in installed cost each year summed over vintages of the 

product stock, STOCKV; 

DF = discount factor in each year; 

STOCKV = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for which 

DOE calculated annual energy consumption (vintages range from approximately 

two to approximately 50 years, depending on the retirement function of the 

product); 

UOCSV = annual per-unit savings in operating cost; 

UTICV = annual total per-unit increase in installed cost; 

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit; and 

y = year in the forecast (2016–2046). 

DOE determined the PVC for each year from the effective date of the standard until 2046. 

DOE determined the PVS for each year from the effective date of the standard until the year 

when units purchased in 2046 retire. DOE calculated costs and savings as the difference between 

a standards case and case without new standards (base case). 

DOE calculated a discount factor from the discount rate (7.0%) and the number of years 

between the “present” (2009, the year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in 

which the costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings. 

10-43 
 

 

 

10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation 

Listed below are the inputs to DOE’s calculation of the NPV of costs and savings for the 

Nation as a whole and the three areas evaluated separately. 

• Total installed cost per unit, 

• annual per-unit savings in operation cost, 

• shipments, 

• equipment stock (STOCKV), 

• total annual increases in installed cost (TIC), 

• total annual operating cost (OCS), 

• discount factor (DF), 

• present value of costs (PVC), and 

• present value of savings (PVS). 

The total annual increase in installed cost is equal to the annual change in the total perunit installed cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the shipments 

forecasted for each candidate standards level. As with calculating energy savings, DOE did not 

use base-case shipments to calculate total annual installed costs for all of the product classes. 

DOE assumed that consumers who forgo the purchase of a central air conditioner because of 

standards instead would purchase a room air conditioner, which will cost far less to purchase and 

operate. DOE used the projected shipments and stock for each candidate standard level to 

calculate costs. In the case of heat pumps, DOE assumed that any decrease in shipments caused 

by standards would result in the purchase of an electric furnace plus CAC. Thus the analysis 

tracked sales of electric furnaces and CACs that result from decreases in sales of heat pumps. 

The annual operating cost includes energy, repair, and maintenance costs. The total 

annual savings in operating cost are equal to the change in the annual operating costs (difference 

between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments forecasted for each 

candidate standards level. As with calculating total annual installed costs, DOE did not 

necessarily use base-case shipments to calculate savings in operating cost. 

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit 

DOE described the total per-unit installed cost for each product class as a function of 

product efficiency in section 8.2.2 of Chapter 8, Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis. 

Because the total per-unit annual installed cost depends directly on efficiency, DOE used the 

shipments-weight efficiencies (SWEFs) for the base and standards cases presented in section 

10.2, combined with the total installed cost presented in chapter 8, to estimate the shipmentsweighted total per-unit average annual installed cost under the base and standards cases. The 

following sections describe the shipments-weighted total per-unit average annual installed cost 

for all four product classes of central air conditioners and heat pumps. 

10-44 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Air Conditioners—Split System 

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for split system CACs on data presented in 

sections 8.2.2 of chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and 

installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied 

by average overall markup values. Based on the relationship between CAC efficiency (SEER) 

and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Tables 10.4.1 and 10.4.2 present the total per-unit 

installed cost for split system coil-only CACs based on the shipments-weighted energy factors 

(SWEFs) that correspond to the base case and each candidate standard level. Table 10.4.1 

presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the 

year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction coil-only 

installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-ofcountry). Table 10.4.2 presents the same total per-unit installed cost data but for coil-only units 

installed as either replacements or for new owners. In both tables, per-unit total installed costs 

are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF 

corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.1 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

coil-only installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over 

time. Because SWEFs in the base case and each standards case were forecasted by DOE to 

increase over the forecast period, the corresponding total installed cost increases over time. As 

noted in earlier in section 10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach for forecasting standards case SWEFs 

assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur 

only at a rate which ensures that the shipment-weighted average total installed cost difference 

between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. This is 

evident in Figure 10.4.1 as the gap in the shipment-weighted total installed cost between CSL 2 

and the base case remains constant over time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech 

standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted total 

installed cost have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed 

to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

 Region 

Nation $2,943 $2,961 $3,024 $3,101 $3,192 $3,308 $3,459 $3,639 

Hot-Humid $2,685 $2,702 $2,761 $2,835 $2,922 $3,032 $3,176 $3,348 

Hot-Dry $3,395 $3,415 $3,485 $3,571 $3,674 $3,803 $3,972 $4,173 

Rest-of-Country $2,905 $2,922 $2,982 $3,056 $3,145 $3,256 $3,402 $3,576 

10-45 
 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.4.2	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed 

Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

 Region 

Nation $2,718 $2,813 $2,895 $3,015 $3,116 $3,244 $3,395 $3,609 

Hot-Humid $2,464 $2,554 $2,631 $2,746 $2,843 $2,965 $3,109 $3,313 

Hot-Dry $3,138 $3,244 $3,335 $3,470 $3,583 $3,726 $3,895 $4,134 

Rest-of-Country $2,699 $2,790 $2,869 $2,985 $3,082 $3,206 $3,352 $3,558 

$2,900 

$3,000 

$3,100 

$3,200 

$3,300 

$3,400 

$3,500 

$3,600 

$3,700 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average 

Total Installed Cost ($/unit) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.5 SER) 

Figure 10.4.1	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: 

Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and 

Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

Table 10.4.3 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit total 

installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new 

construction blower coil installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, 

10-46 
 

 

 

 

 

hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table 10.4.4 presents the same per-unit total installed cost data but 

for blower coil units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In both tables, per-unit 

total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, 

the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted per-unit total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.2 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

blower coil installations for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 9, and CSL 13) 

change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil-only units, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit total installed costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over 

time. This is not evident in CSL 13, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted 

SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit total installed cost have achieved their 

maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.4.3	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 

SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

Region 

Nation $3,738 $3,753 $3,803 $3,859 $3,903 $3,950 $4,000 $4,053 $4,108 $4,241 $4,395 $4,565 $4,752 $4,956 

Hot-Humid $3,413 $3,427 $3,475 $3,528 $3,570 $3,615 $3,663 $3,713 $3,766 $3,892 $4,039 $4,201 $4,379 $4,574 

Hot-Dry $4,315 $4,332 $4,388 $4,451 $4,500 $4,553 $4,609 $4,668 $4,730 $4,879 $5,051 $5,241 $5,450 $5,679 

Rest-of-Country $3,695 $3,709 $3,758 $3,811 $3,854 $3,899 $3,947 $3,998 $4,052 $4,179 $4,327 $4,491 $4,671 $4,868 

Table 10.4.4	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed 

Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 

SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

Region 

Nation $4,422 $4,436 $4,482 $4,533 $4,574 $4,617 $4,663 $4,711 $4,763 $4,885 $5,026 $5,182 $5,354 $5,542 

Hot-Humid $3,921 $3,935 $3,979 $4,028 $4,066 $4,107 $4,151 $4,198 $4,246 $4,363 $4,497 $4,647 $4,810 $4,990 

Hot-Dry $5,119 $5,135 $5,186 $5,244 $5,289 $5,338 $5,389 $5,443 $5,500 $5,637 $5,795 $5,970 $6,162 $6,373 

Rest-of-Country $4,423 $4,436 $4,480 $4,530 $4,569 $4,611 $4,655 $4,702 $4,751 $4,869 $5,005 $5,157 $5,322 $5,504 

10-47 
$3,700 

$3,800 

$3,900 

$4,000 

$4,100 

$4,200 

$4,300 

$4,400 

$4,500 

$4,600 

$4,700 

$4,800 

$4,900 

$5,000 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average

Total Installed Cost ($/unit) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 9 (18 SEER) 

CSL 13 (22 SEER) 

Figure 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the 

Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

Central Air Conditioners—Single Package 

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for single package central air conditioners 

(CACs) on data presented in sections 8.2.2 of chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the 

purchase price and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average 

manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between 

CAC efficiency (SEER) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.5 presents the 

base case and standards case shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 

(the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction installations for the Nation 

and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table 10.4.6 presents 

the same total per-unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new 

owners. In both tables, per-unit total installed costs are the same for both residential and 

commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted 

annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.3 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. For 

10-48 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the same reasons given above for split system CACs, the gap in the shipment-weighted per-unit 

total installed costs between CSL 2 and the base case are maintained over time. This is not 

evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the 

corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit total installed cost have achieved their maximum 

values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.4.5	 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

 Region 

Nation $3,141 $3,244 $3,333 $3,463 $3,573 $3,712 $3,877 $4,109 

Hot-Humid $2,877 $2,975 $3,059 $3,184 $3,289 $3,421 $3,578 $3,799 

Hot-Dry $3,629 $3,744 $3,843 $3,989 $4,112 $4,268 $4,452 $4,712 

Rest-of-Country $3,103 $3,201 $3,287 $3,413 $3,519 $3,653 $3,811 $4,035 

Table 10.4.6	 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, Replacement and New Owner 

Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base 

and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

 Region 

Nation $2,718 $2,813 $2,895 $3,015 $3,116 $3,244 $3,395 $3,609 

Hot-Humid $2,464 $2,554 $2,631 $2,746 $2,843 $2,965 $3,109 $3,313 

Hot-Dry $3,138 $3,244 $3,335 $3,470 $3,583 $3,726 $3,895 $4,134 

Rest-of-Country $2,699 $2,790 $2,869 $2,985 $3,082 $3,206 $3,352 $3,558 

10-49 
3100 

3200 

3300 

3400 

3500 

3600 

3700 

3800 

3900 

4000 

4100 

4200 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average 

Total Installed Cost ($/unit) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.6 SER) 

Figure 10.4.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Two 

Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

Heat Pumps—Split System 

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for split system heat pumps (HPs) on data 

presented in sections 8.2.2 of chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price 

and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs 

multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between HP efficiency 

(SEER/HSPF) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.7 presents the base case 

and standards case shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed 

effective date of new standards) for new construction installations for the Nation and the three 

specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table 10.4.8 presents the same total 

per-unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In 

both tables, per-unit total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial 

installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit 

total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.4 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

installations for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 7, and CSL 10) change 

10-50 
 

 

 

over time. For the same reasons given above for split system CACs, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit total installed costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over 

time. This is not evident in CSL 10, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted 

SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit total installed cost have achieved their 

maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.4.7	 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

SWEF (SEER) 13.77 13.89 14.28 14.70 15.14 15.59 16.06 17.03 18.02 19.01 20.00 

SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8.49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30 

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

Region 

Nation $4,051 $4,063 $4,127 $4,184 $4,245 $4,316 $4,410 $4,577 $4,759 $4,957 $5,065 

Hot-Humid $3,746 $3,758 $3,819 $3,873 $3,931 $3,998 $4,088 $4,247 $4,421 $4,610 $4,713 

Hot-Dry $4,657 $4,671 $4,742 $4,806 $4,874 $4,953 $5,059 $5,245 $5,449 $5,670 $5,791 

Rest-of-Country $3,986 $3,998 $4,059 $4,114 $4,172 $4,241 $4,332 $4,492 $4,668 $4,859 $4,963 

Table 10.4.8	 Split System Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

SWEF (SEER) 13.77 13.89 14.28 14.70 15.14 15.59 16.06 17.03 18.02 19.01 20.00 

SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8.49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30 

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

Region 

Nation $3,492 $3,503 $3,562 $3,614 $3,670 $3,735 $3,822 $3,976 $4,143 $4,326 $4,425 

Hot-Humid $3,203 $3,213 $3,270 $3,319 $3,372 $3,435 $3,517 $3,664 $3,824 $3,997 $4,092 

Hot-Dry $4,024 $4,036 $4,102 $4,160 $4,223 $4,296 $4,393 $4,565 $4,752 $4,957 $5,067 

Rest-of-Country $3,452 $3,463 $3,520 $3,570 $3,624 $3,687 $3,771 $3,919 $4,080 $4,256 $4,352 

10-51 
4000 

4100 

4200 

4300 

4400 

4500 

4600 

4700 

4800 

4900 

5000 

5100 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average

Total Installed Cost ($/unit) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (17 SEER) 

CSL 10 (19.5 SEER) 

Figure 10.4.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 

2016-2046 Forecast Period 

Heat Pumps—Single Package 

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for single package heat pumps (HPs) on data 

presented in sections 8.2.2 of chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price 

and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs 

multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between HP efficiency 

(SEER/HSPF) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.9 presents the base case 

and standards case shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed 

effective date of new standards) for new construction installations for the Nation and the three 

specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table 10.4.10 presents the same total 

per-unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In 

both tables, per-unit total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial 

installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit 

total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.5 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. For 

10-52 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the same reasons given above for split system CACs, the gap in the shipment-weighted per-unit 

total installed costs between CSL 2 and the base case are maintained over time. This is not 

evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and the 

corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit total installed cost have achieved their maximum 

values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.4.9	 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 

SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

Region 

Nation $3,646 $3,691 $3,784 $3,936 $4,078 $4,245 $4,444 $4,642 

Hot-Humid $3,408 $3,450 $3,539 $3,684 $3,819 $3,979 $4,168 $4,357 

Hot-Dry $4,185 $4,235 $4,339 $4,510 $4,668 $4,855 $5,076 $5,298 

Rest-of-Country $3,575 $3,618 $3,708 $3,855 $3,991 $4,152 $4,343 $4,534 

Table 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 

SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

Region 

Nation $3,120 $3,161 $3,247 $3,387 $3,517 $3,671 $3,853 $4,036 

Hot-Humid $2,895 $2,935 $3,017 $3,150 $3,274 $3,421 $3,595 $3,769 

Hot-Dry $3,589 $3,635 $3,731 $3,888 $4,033 $4,206 $4,410 $4,614 

Rest-of-Country $3,071 $3,110 $3,193 $3,328 $3,454 $3,602 $3,778 $3,954 

10-53 
 

3600 

3700 

3800 

3900 

4000 

4100 

4200 

4300 

4400 

4500 

4600 

4700 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average

Total Installed Cost ($/unit) 

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.4 SER) 

Figure 10.4.5 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and Two Standards Cases 

over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost per Unit 

The per-unit annual operating cost includes costs for energy, repair, and maintenance. 

DOE calculated the annual savings in cost per unit for the nation as a whole and for the three 

regions that were evaluated separately. 

Annual Energy Costs 

DOE determined the per-unit annual savings in energy costs by multiplying the per-unit 

annual savings in energy consumption developed for each product class by the appropriate 

energy price. 

For both classes of both CACs and HPs, estimates of the per-unit annual energy 

consumption for the base case and each standards case were presented in section 10.3.2.1. As 

described previously, DOE forecasted the per-unit annual energy consumption for the base case 

and each standards case for all product classes by applying a growth trend in efficiency. 

10-54 
 

Energy prices are described in section 8.2.3.1 of chapter 8. DOE forecasted energy prices 

based on EIA’s AEO2009. Trends in energy prices are described in section 8.2.3.2 of chapter 8. 

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs 

DOE described the total per-unit repair and maintenance costs for each product class as a 

function of product efficiency in sections 8.2.3.3 and 8.2.3.4 of Chapter 8, Life-Cycle Cost and 

Payback Period Analysis. Because the per-unit repair and maintenance costs depend directly on 

efficiency, DOE used the shipments-weight efficiencies (SWEFs) for the base and standards 

cases presented in section 10.2, combined with the repair and maintenance costs presented in 

chapter 8, to estimate the shipments-weighted per-unit average repair and maintenance costs 

under the base and standards cases. 

Based on the relationship between CAC efficiency (SEER) and repair and maintenance 

costs presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.11 presents the base case and standards case shipmentweighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs for coil-only installations in the year 2016 (the 

assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hothumid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for 

both residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and replacement/new 

owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual 

per-unit total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit repair and maintenance costs change 

over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.6 demonstrates how the costs for coil-only installations for 

the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. Because SWEFs in 

the base case and each standards case were forecasted by DOE to increase over the forecast 

period, the corresponding repair and maintenance costs increase over time. As noted in earlier in 

section 10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach for forecasting standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of 

adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate which 

ensures that the shipment-weighted average total installed cost difference between the standards 

case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the change in repair 

and maintenance costs (as a function of efficiency) mirrors the change in total installed costs, the 

repair and maintenance cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire 

forecast period also remains constant. This is evident in Figure 10.4.6 as the gap in the shipmentweighted repair and maintenance costs between CSL 2 and the base case remains constant over 

time. This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted 

SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted repair and maintenance costs have achieved 

their maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

10-55 
 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.4.11 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.65 13.77 14.18 14.60 15.05 15.52 16.00 16.50

Repair 

and 

Maint. 

Cost 

 Region 

Nation $152 $153 $157 $162 $168 $176 $186 $198 

Hot-Humid $122 $123 $127 $131 $136 $142 $150 $160 

Hot-Dry $173 $174 $179 $185 $192 $200 $212 $225 

Rest-of-Country $159 $160 $165 $170 $176 $184 $195 $207 

$150 

$155 

$160 

$165 

$170 

$175 

$180 

$185 

$190 

$195 

$200 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average 

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit)

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.5 SER) 

Figure 10.4.6	 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New Construction: 

Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for 

the Base Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast 

Period 

Table 10.4.12 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for split system CAC blower coil installations in the year 2016 (the 

assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hothumid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for 

10-56 
 

 

 

both residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and replacement/new 

owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual 

per-unit total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.7 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower coil 

installations for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 9, and CSL 13) change 

over time. For the same reasons given above for coil-only units, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the CSLs and the base case are 

maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 13, the Max Tech standards case, as the 

shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit repair and 

maintenance costs have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the standard is 

assumed to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.4.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 

SWEF (SEER) 14.81 14.90 15.20 15.52 15.86 16.21 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 

Repair 

and 

Maint. 

Cost 

Region 

Nation $160 $161 $164 $167 $169 $172 $175 $177 $180 $188 $196 $205 $216 $227 

Hot-Humid $129 $130 $132 $134 $136 $138 $141 $143 $145 $151 $158 $166 $174 $183 

Hot-Dry $182 $183 $186 $190 $192 $195 $198 $202 $205 $213 $223 $233 $245 $258 

Rest-of-Country $168 $169 $172 $175 $177 $180 $183 $186 $189 $197 $205 $215 $226 $237 

10-57 
$160 

$170 

$180 

$190 

$200 

$210 

$220 

$230 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit)

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 9 (18 SEER) 

CSL 13 (22 SEER) 

Figure 10.4.7 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Three Standards Cases over the 

2016-2046 Forecast Period 

Table 10.4.13 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for single package CAC installations in the year 2016 (the assumed 

effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hotdry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for both 

residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and replacement/new owner 

installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit 

total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.8 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower coil 

installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. For 

the same reasons given above for split system CACs, the gap in the shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time. 

This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and 

the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs have achieved their 

maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

10-58 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.4.13 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average perUnit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.17 13.55 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60

Repair 

and 

Maint. 

Cost 

 Region 

Nation $147 $154 $159 $167 $173 $182 $191 $205 

Hot-Humid $119 $124 $128 $134 $140 $146 $154 $165 

Hot-Dry $168 $175 $181 $190 $197 $206 $218 $233 

Rest-of-Country $154 $161 $166 $175 $181 $190 $200 $215 

140 

150 

160 

170 

180 

190 

200 

210 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average 

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit)

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.6 SER) 

Figure 10.4.8	 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base 

Case and Two Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

Table 10.4.14 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for split system HP installations in the year 2016 (the assumed 

effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hotdry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for both 

residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and replacement/new owner 

10-59 
 

 

 

 

 

 

installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit 

total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.9 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower coil 

installations for the base case and three standards cases (CSL 2, CSL 7, and CSL 10) change 

over time. For the same reasons given above for split system CACs, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the CSLs and the base case are 

maintained over time. This is not evident in CSL 10, the Max Tech standards case, as the 

shipment-weighted SWEF and the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit repair and 

maintenance costs have achieved their maximum values in the first year that the standard is 

assumed to become effective (2016). 

Table 10.4.14 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

SWEF (SEER) 13.77 13.89 14.28 14.70 15.14 15.59 16.06 17.03 18.02 19.01 20.00 

SWEF (HSPF) 8.00 8.02 8.12 8.23 8.36 8.49 8.63 9.11 9.60 10.10 10.30 

Repair 

and 

Maint. 

Cost 

Region 

Nation $153 $153 $156 $159 $162 $165 $169 $177 $185 $194 $199 

Hot-Humid $123 $124 $126 $128 $130 $133 $136 $142 $149 $157 $160 

Hot-Dry $174 $174 $178 $181 $184 $187 $192 $201 $210 $221 $226 

Rest-of-Country $160 $161 $164 $166 $169 $173 $177 $185 $194 $203 $209 

10-60 
 

150 

155 

160 

165 

170 

175 

180 

185 

190 

195 

200 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit)

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (17 SEER) 

CSL 10 (19.5 SEER) 

Figure 10.4.9 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Three 

Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

Table 10.4.15 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for single package HP installations in the year 2016 (the assumed 

effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hotdry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for both 

residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and replacement/new owner 

installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit 

total installed cost is also provided. 

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.10 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower 

coil installations for the base case and two standards cases (CSL 2 and CSL 7) change over time. 

For the same reasons given above for split system CACs, the gap in the shipment-weighted perunit repair and maintenance costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time. 

This is not evident in CSL 7, the Max Tech standards case, as the shipment-weighted SWEF and 

the corresponding shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs have achieved their 

maximum values in the first year that the standard is assumed to become effective (2016). 

10-61 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.4.15 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair 

and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case 

Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

SWEF (SEER) 13.39 13.64 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40 

SWEF (HSPF) 7.80 7.88 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 

Repair 

and 

Maint. 

Cost 

Region 

Nation $151 $153 $158 $165 $172 $181 $190 $200 

Hot-Humid $122 $124 $128 $134 $139 $146 $154 $162 

Hot-Dry $172 $174 $179 $188 $196 $205 $216 $227 

Rest-of-Country $158 $161 $165 $173 $180 $189 $199 $209 

150 

155 

160 

165 

170 

175 

180 

185 

190 

195 

200 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 

Year 

Shipment-Weighted Average 

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs ($/unit)

Base Case 

CSL 2 (14 SEER) 

CSL 7 (16.4 SER) 

Figure 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and Two 

Standards Cases over the 2016-2046 Forecast Period 

10.4.2.3 Shipments including Equipment Switching 

DOE forecasted shipments for the base case and all standards cases for the Nation as a 

10-62 
 

 

 

 

 

whole and for the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid region, 

hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). An extensive description of the methodology for conducting 

and generating the shipments forecasts for all four of the product class is presented in Chapter 9, 

Shipments Analysis. 

In projecting standards case shipments, DOE analyzed the combined effects of increased 

total installed costs (purchase price plus installation costs), operating cost savings, and household 

income on consumer replacement and new owner purchase decisions. DOE determined that 

increased total installed cost is the most significant effect and impacts consumer replacement and 

new owner purchase decisions. As described in section 9.4 of chapter 9, DOE treated the impact 

of total installed cost increases on standards case shipments differently for the new construction, 

replacement, and new owner markets. 

As described earlier in section 10.3.2.2, for new construction purchases of split system 

and single package CACs and HPs, DOE assumed consumers were unaffected by an increase in 

total installed cost. In other words, DOE assumed new construction shipments under any 

standards case equaled new construction shipments under the base case. For replacement 

purchases of split system and single package CACs and HPs, DOE assumed consumers affected 

by an increase in total installed cost would repair their equipment rather than replace it, 

extending the life of the product by six years. For new owner purchases of split system and 

single package CACs, DOE assumed consumers affected by an increase in total installed cost 

would switch equipment and purchase a room air conditioner rather than a CAC. For new owner 

purchases of split system and single package HPs, DOE assumed that consumers affected by an 

increase in total installed cost would switch equipment and purchase a combination electric 

resistance furnace and CAC rather than a HP. 

Table 10.4.16 presents the per-unit total installed costs of the alternative coil-only split 

system CAC and electric furnace combination to replace split system HPs. Per-unit costs are the 

same for residential and commercial installations. 

Table 10.4.16 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers of Split System Heat 

Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs of 

Alternative Combination Coil-Only Split System Central Air Conditioner 

and Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Region 

Base 

Case 

Split Heat Pump Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

Nation $3,188 $3,205 $3,262 $3,333 $3,417 $3,524 $3,663 $3,828 $3,828 $3,828 $3,828 

Hot-Humid $2,946 $2,961 $3,016 $3,084 $3,164 $3,265 $3,398 $3,556 $3,556 $3,556 $3,556 

Hot-Dry $3,583 $3,602 $3,666 $3,745 $3,839 $3,958 $4,114 $4,299 $4,299 $4,299 $4,299 

Rest-of-Country $3,173 $3,189 $3,244 $3,313 $3,394 $3,497 $3,630 $3,790 $3,790 $3,790 $3,790 

10-63 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.4.17 presents the per-unit total installed costs of the alternative single package 

CAC and electric furnace combination to replace single package HPs. Per-unit costs are the 

same for residential and commercial installations. 

Table 10.4.17 Equipment Switching for New Owner Purchasers Single Package Heat 

Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs of 

Alternative Combination Single Package Central Air Conditioner and 

Electric Furnace System for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Region 

Base 

Case 

Single Package Candidate Standard Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Nation $3,359 $3,454 $3,535 $3,656 $3,757 $3,885 $4,036 $4,249 

Hot-Humid $3,104 $3,194 $3,272 $3,387 $3,483 $3,605 $3,749 $3,953 

Hot-Dry $3,779 $3,885 $3,976 $4,111 $4,224 $4,367 $4,536 $4,775 

Rest-of-Country $3,340 $3,431 $3,510 $3,626 $3,723 $3,847 $3,992 $4,199 

10.4.2.4 Equipment Stock 

The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime 

of a given product class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each year. 

The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the given 

year. DOE assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The 

probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function. 

Refer to the specific section for each product class in Chapter 9, Shipments Analysis, for further 

details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis. 

10.4.2.5 Increases in Total Annual Installed Cost 

The increase in total annual installed cost for a product under any given standards case is 

the product of the increase in total installed cost per unit attributable to the standard and the 

number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in total installed cost from 

year to year. The equation for determining the total annual installed cost increase for a given 

candidate standards level, presented in section 10.4.1 is repeated here. 

TIC = ∑STOCKV ×UTICV 

As noted earlier, when considering heat pumps DOE accounted for the total installed cost 

for those consumers who decided to switch from a heat pump to an electric furnace plus CAC 

because standards increased the cost of new units. Therefore, the total annual increase in 

installed cost accounts for the total installed cost of CACs purchased in lieu of new heat pumps. 

10-64 
 

 

10.4.2.6 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost 

The savings in total annual operating cost for any given candidate standards level is the 

product of the annual per-unit savings in operating cost attributable to the standard and the 

number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for the year-to-year differences in annual 

operating cost savings. The equation for determining the total annual savings in operating cost 

for a given candidate standards level, which was presented in section 10.4.1, is repeated here. 

OCS = ∑STOCKV ×UOCSV 

As noted earlier, when considering heat pumps DOE accounted for the energy use of 

those consumers who decided to switch from a heat pump to an electric furnace and CAC in 

response to standards. Therefore, the total annual savings in operating cost accounts for the 

energy costs of the CACs purchased in lieu of heat pumps. 

10.4.2.7 Discount Factors 

DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the 

present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation: 

1

DF = _ ( y yp ) (1+ r ) 

Where:
 

r = discount rate, 

y = year of the monetary value, and 

yP = year in which the present value is being determined. 

Although DOE used consumer discount rates to determine the life-cycle cost of 

refrigeration products (chapter 8), it used national discount rates to calculate national NPV. DOE 

estimated NPV using both a 3-percent and a 7-percent real discount rate, in accordance with the 

Office of Management and Budget’s guidance to Federal agencies on the development of 

regulatory analysis, particularly section E therein: Identifying and Measuring Benefits and 

Costs.

3

 DOE defined the present year as 2009. 

10.4.2.8 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost 

The present value of increased installed cost is the difference between installation cost in 

each standards case and the base case discounted to the present and summed throughout the 

period over which DOE is considering the installation of units (from the effective date of 

standards, 2016, to 2046). 

10-65 
 

The increase in total installed cost refers to both the purchase price and installation cost 

associated with the more expensive units purchased in the standards case compared to the base 

case. DOE calculated annual increases in installed cost as the difference in total installed cost for 

new equipment purchased each year, multiplied by the shipments in the standards case. 

10.4.2.9 Present Value of Savings 

The present value of annual savings in operating cost is the difference between the base 

case and each standards case discounted to the present and summed throughout the period from 

the effective date, 2016, to the time when the last unit installed in 2046 is retired from service. 

Savings represent decreases in operating cost (including electricity, repair, and 

maintenance) associated with the more energy efficient equipment purchased in each standards 

case compared to the base case. Total annual savings in operating cost are the savings per unit 

multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that survive in a particular year. For units 

purchased in 2046, energy consumption continues until the unit is retired from service. 

10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATIONS 

The National Impacts Analysis (NIA) model estimates the national energy savings 

(NES), the regional energy savings (RES), and the net present value (NPV) attributable to each 

candidate standards level. DOE generated the NES, RES, and NPV results using a Microsoft 

Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet at: 

(http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/central_ac_hp.html). 

Details and instructions for using the spreadsheet are provided in appendix 10-A. 

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs 

Table 10.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA model. The inputs were discussed in 

sections 10.3.2 (inputs for NES and RES) and 10.4.2 (inputs for the national and regional NPV). 

A brief description of the data source or each input also is provided in Table 10.5.1. 

10-66 
 

 

 

 

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculations 

Input Data Description 

Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model (chapter 9). 

Effective date of standard 2016. 

Forecasted efficiencies for base 

case 

SWEF* determined in the year 2016 for each product class. Growth trend 

applied to SWEF throughout forecast period, 2016–2046 (section 10.2). 

Efficiencies for standards case Growth trends applied to determine SWEF for each standards case and each 

product class for 2016–2046 (section 10.2). 

Annual energy consumption per 

unit 

Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEF (section 10.3.2.1). 

Total installed cost per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEF (section 10.4.2.1). 

Energy cost per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of annual energy consumption 

per unit and energy prices. (See section 8.2.3.1 of chapter 8 for energy prices.) 

Repair and maintenance costs 

per unit 

Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEF (section 10.4.2.3). 

Increase in energy prices EIA AEO 2009 forecasts (to 2030) and extrapolation to 2046. (See section 

8.2.3.2 of chapter 8.) 

Energy site-to-source conversion Conversion factor, which changes yearly, is generated by DOE/EIA’s NEMS† 

program as a time-series factor that includes electric generation, transmission, 

and distribution losses. 

Discount rate Seven percent real. 

Present year Future expenses are discounted to 2009. 

* SWEF = shipments-weighted energy factor (efficiency).

† NEMS = National Energy Modeling System. Chapter 13 , Utility Impact Analysis, and the Environmental 

Assessment Report [Give reference]provide more detail on NEMS. 

10.5.2 National and Regional Energy Savings 

The following sections provide the national energy savings (NES) and regional energy 

savings (RES) that DOE calculated for each of the candidate standard levels (CSLs) analyzed for 

all four product classes of central air conditioners and heat pumps. Results, which are cumulative 

to 2046, are shown as primary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on 

weighted-average values, producing results that are discrete point values, rather than a 

distribution of values such as is generated by the life-cycle cost and payback period analyses. 

10.5.2.1 Central Air Conditioners 

This section provides NES and RES results for the efficiency levels considered for the 

two product classes of central air conditioners (split system and single package). 

Central Air Conditioners—Split System 

Tables 10.5.2 through 10.5.4 show the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for split 

system CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions evaluated 

separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Table 10.5.2 shows the results for the 

residential sector only, Table 10.5.3 shows the results for the commercial sector only, and Table 

10.5.4 shows the results for both sectors. Each table shows the breakdown of energy savings for 

10-67 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

coil-only units and blower coil units. Figure 10.5.1 depicts the total national and regional energy 

savings for each CSL. 

Table 10.5.2	 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (quads) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country 

Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil 

1 13.5 0.19 0.17 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 

2 14.0 0.77 0.71 0.07 0.35 0.32 0.03 0.12 0.11 0.01 0.22 0.20 0.02 

3 14.5 1.36 1.24 0.12 0.62 0.56 0.05 0.22 0.20 0.02 0.38 0.35 0.03 

4 15.0 1.94 1.77 0.17 0.88 0.80 0.08 0.31 0.28 0.03 0.55 0.50 0.05 

5 15.5 2.51 2.29 0.22 1.14 1.04 0.10 0.40 0.37 0.03 0.71 0.65 0.06 

6 16.0 3.03 2.77 0.26 1.37 1.26 0.12 0.49 0.44 0.04 0.86 0.78 0.07 

7 16.5 3.30 2.99 0.31 1.50 1.36 0.14 0.53 0.48 0.05 0.93 0.85 0.09 

8 17.0 3.35 0.36 1.52 0.16 0.54 0.06 0.94 0.10 

9 18.0 3.45 0.45 1.56 0.20 0.55 0.07 0.97 0.13 

10 19.0 3.54 0.55 1.60 0.25 0.57 0.09 1.00 0.15 

11 20.0 3.63 0.63 1.64 0.29 0.58 0.10 1.02 0.18 

12 21.0 3.70 0.71 1.68 0.32 0.59 0.11 1.04 0.20 

13 22.0 3.74 0.75 1.70 0.34 0.60 0.12 1.05 0.21 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES. 

** Total NES for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER. 

10-68 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.5.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (quads) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country 

Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil 

1 13.5 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

2 14.0 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 

3 14.5 0.09 0.09 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 

4 15.0 0.14 0.13 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 

5 15.5 0.18 0.16 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.01 

6 16.0 0.20 0.18 0.01 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.09 0.08 0.01 

7 16.5 0.20 0.19 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.08 0.01 

8 17.0 0.21 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.01 

9 18.0 0.21 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.01 

10 19.0 0.21 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.01 

11 20.0 0.21 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.01 

12 21.0 0.22 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.01 

13 22.0 0.22 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.01 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES. 

** Total NES for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER. 

Table 10.5.4	 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2046 for the Residential and Commercial Sectors 

(quads) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country 

Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil 

1 13.5 0.20 0.18 0.02 0.09 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.00 

2 14.0 0.82 0.75 0.07 0.37 0.34 0.03 0.13 0.12 0.01 0.24 0.22 0.02 

3 14.5 1.46 1.33 0.12 0.65 0.59 0.06 0.24 0.22 0.02 0.43 0.39 0.04 

4 15.0 2.08 1.90 0.18 0.93 0.85 0.08 0.34 0.31 0.03 0.61 0.56 0.05 

5 15.5 2.69 2.46 0.23 1.20 1.10 0.10 0.44 0.40 0.04 0.79 0.72 0.07 

6 16.0 3.23 2.95 0.28 1.44 1.32 0.12 0.52 0.48 0.04 0.95 0.87 0.08 

7 16.5 3.51 3.18 0.33 1.57 1.43 0.15 0.57 0.52 0.05 1.02 0.93 0.09 

8 17.0 3.56 0.37 1.59 0.17 0.57 0.06 1.04 0.11 

9 18.0 3.65 0.47 1.64 0.21 0.59 0.08 1.06 0.13 

10 19.0 3.75 0.57 1.68 0.25 0.61 0.09 1.09 0.16 

11 20.0 3.84 0.66 1.72 0.30 0.62 0.11 1.12 0.19 

12 21.0 3.92 0.74 1.76 0.33 0.63 0.12 1.14 0.21 

13 22.0 3.96 0.78 1.78 0.35 0.64 0.12 1.15 0.22 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES. 

** Total NES for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER. 

10-69 
0.0 

0.5 

1.0 

1.5 

2.0 

2.5 

3.0 

3.5 

4.0 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 

Candidate Standard Level 

National or Regional Energy Savings (quads) 

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.1	 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads) 

Central Air Conditioners—Single Package 

Table 10.5.5 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for single package CACs 

for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately 

(the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Total energy savings in Table 10.5.5 are also 

broken down by sector (i.e., residential and commercial). Figure 10.5.2 depicts the total national 

and regional energy savings for each CSL. 

10-70 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.5.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country 

Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. 

1 13.5 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 

2 14.0 0.15 0.14 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 

3 14.5 0.24 0.22 0.02 0.11 0.11 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.07 0.06 0.01 

4 15.0 0.30 0.28 0.02 0.14 0.13 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.09 0.08 0.01 

5 15.5 0.36 0.34 0.02 0.17 0.16 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.11 0.10 0.01 

6 16.0 0.41 0.39 0.02 0.19 0.18 0.01 0.07 0.06 0.00 0.12 0.11 0.01 

7 16.6 0.43 0.41 0.03 0.20 0.19 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.13 0.12 0.01 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES. 

0.00 

0.05 

0.10 

0.15 

0.20 

0.25 

0.30 

0.35 

0.40 

0.45 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Candidate Standard Level 

National or Regional Energy Savings (quads) 

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.2 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and 

Regional Energy Savings from 2016-2046 (quads) 

10-71 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.5.2.2 Heat Pumps 

This section provides NES and RES results for the efficiency levels considered for the 

two product classes of heat pumps (split system and single package). 

Heat Pumps—Split System 

Table 10.5.6 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for split system HPs for the 

Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the 

hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Total energy savings in Table 10.5.6 are also broken 

down by sector (i.e., residential and commercial). Figure 10.5.3 depicts the total national and 

regional energy savings for each CSL. 

Table 10.5.6	 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy 

Savings from 2016-2046 (quads) 

CSL SEER HSPF 

Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country 

Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. 

1 13.5 7.85 0.11 0.10 0.00 0.07 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 

2 14.0 8.00 0.56 0.54 0.02 0.34 0.33 0.01 0.07 0.06 0.00 0.15 0.14 0.01 

3 14.5 8.15 1.03 1.00 0.03 0.63 0.61 0.02 0.12 0.11 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.01 

4 15.0 8.30 1.53 1.48 0.05 0.93 0.90 0.03 0.18 0.17 0.01 0.42 0.40 0.02 

5 15.5 8.45 2.09 2.03 0.06 1.26 1.23 0.03 0.24 0.23 0.01 0.58 0.56 0.02 

6 16.0 8.60 2.78 2.71 0.07 1.66 1.62 0.04 0.31 0.30 0.01 0.79 0.77 0.02 

7 17.0 9.10 3.93 3.84 0.09 2.94 2.28 0.05 0.44 0.42 0.01 1.15 1.12 0.03 

8 18.0 9.60 4.98 4.88 0.10 3.36 2.88 0.06 0.55 0.54 0.01 1.47 1.44 0.03 

9 19.0 10.10 5.68 5.57 0.11 3.41 3.29 0.06 0.63 0.61 0.02 1.68 1.65 0.03 

10 19.5 10.30 5.78 5.67 0.11 2.94 3.35 0.06 0.64 0.62 0.02 1.71 1.68 0.03 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES. 

10-72 
0.0 

1.0 

2.0 

3.0 

4.0 

5.0 

6.0 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

Candidate Standard Level 

National or Regional Energy Savings (quads) 

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.3	 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy 

Savings from 2016-2046 (quads) 

Heat Pumps—Single Package 

Table 10.5.7 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for single package HPs for 

the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately 

(the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Total energy savings in Table 10.5.7 are also 

broken down by sector (i.e., residential and commercial). Figure 10.5.4 depicts the total national 

and regional energy savings for each CSL. 

10-73 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.5.7 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy 

Savings from 2016-2046 (quads) 

CSL SEER HSPF 

Nation* Hot-Humid Hot-Dry Rest of Country 

Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. 

1 13.5 7.85 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 

2 14.0 8.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 

3 14.5 8.00 0.19 0.19 0.01 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 

4 15.0 8.00 0.28 0.27 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.00 

5 15.5 8.50 0.36 0.35 0.01 0.22 0.21 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00 

6 16.0 9.00 0.41 0.40 0.01 0.25 0.24 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 

7 16.4 9.00 0.43 0.41 0.01 0.26 0.25 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES. 

0.00 

0.05 

0.10 

0.15 

0.20 

0.25 

0.30 

0.35 

0.40 

0.45 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Candidate Standard Level 

National or Regional Energy Savings (quads) 

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.4	 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy 

Savings from 2016-2046 (quads) 

10.5.3 Calculating Annual Cost and Savings 

To illustrate the basic inputs to the calculations of net present value (NPV) of costs and 

savings attributable to proposed standards for central air conditioners and heat pumps, Figure 

10.5.5 shows the non-discounted annual increases in installed cost and annual savings in 

10-74 
operating cost at the national level for CSL 2 for split system coil-only CACs. The figure also 

shows net savings, which is the difference between the savings and costs for each year. The 

annual total installed cost is the increase in the total installed cost for products purchased each 

year for 2016–2046. The annual savings in operating cost applies to products that are operating 

in each year. The NPV is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted savings and 

the cumulative annual discounted cost. DOE could create figures like the one below for every 

standards case for all four product classes of CACs and heat pumps. 

-0.4 

-0.3 

-0.2 

-0.1 

0.0 

0.1 

0.2 

2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064 2068 2072 2076 2080 

Year 

Billion of 2008 Dollars 

Total Installed Cost Increase 

Operating Cost Savings 

Net Savings 

Figure 10.5.5 Non-Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in 

Operating Cost for Split System Coil-Only Central Air Conditioners, 

Candidate Standard Level 2 

10.5.4 Net Present Values 

The following sections provide results of calculating the net present value (NPV) for each 

candidate standard level considered for the four product classes of central air conditioners and 

heat pumps (split systems and packaged systems). Results were calculated for the nation as a 

whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, 

hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Results, which are cumulative, are shown as the discounted 

dollar value of the savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, 

yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as 

produced by the life-cycle cost and payback period analyses. 

The present value of increased total installed cost is the total annual increase (the 

difference between the standards case and base case) discounted to the present and summed 

10-75 
 

throughout the period for which DOE evaluates the effect of standards (from the effective date of 

standards, 2016, to 2046). 

Savings derive from decreases in operating costs related to the energy consumption 

associated with the higher energy efficiency of equipment purchased in the standards case 

compared to the base case. Total savings in operating costs are the savings per unit multiplied by 

the number of units of each vintage (i.e., the year of manufacture) that survive in a particular 

year. Equipment consumes energy and must be maintained throughout its lifetime. For units 

purchased through 2046, the operating cost includes energy consumed until the last unit is retired 

from service. 

10.5.4.1 Central Air Conditioners 

The following sections provide the results of calculating net present value (NPV) based 

on a discount rate of seven percent for the candidate standard levels DOE analyzed for the two 

product classes of central air conditioners, split system and single package. Results are 

cumulative to 2046. 

Central Air Conditioners—Split System 

Tables 10.5.8 through 10.5.10 show the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the 

CSLs analyzed for split system CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate 

regions evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Table 10.5.8 shows 

the results for the residential sector only, Table 10.5.9shows the results for the commercial sector 

only, and Table 10.5.10 shows the results for both sectors. Each table shows the breakdown of 

the NPV for coil-only units and blower coil units. Figure 10.5.6 depicts the total national and 

regional NPVs for each CSL. 

10-76 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.5.8	 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (3% 

Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil 

1 13.5 -0.65 -0.65 0.00 0.10 0.08 0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.01 -0.86 -0.81 -0.05 

2 14.0 -3.65 -3.63 -0.01 0.19 0.09 0.10 -0.23 -0.27 0.04 -4.07 -3.87 -0.20 

3 14.5 -8.33 -8.29 -0.04 -0.18 -0.34 0.16 -0.79 -0.86 0.07 -8.16 -7.80 -0.36 

4 15.0 -15.13 -15.04 -0.09 -1.11 -1.33 0.22 -1.79 -1.88 0.09 -13.32 -12.78 -0.54 

5 15.5 -24.15 -23.95 -0.20 -2.67 -2.94 0.27 -3.24 -3.35 0.10 -19.55 -18.82 -0.74 

6 16.0 -34.13 -33.78 -0.35 -4.61 -4.91 0.30 -4.94 -5.04 0.10 -26.06 -25.10 -0.96 

7 16.5 -39.83 -39.27 -0.57 -5.78 -6.09 0.31 -5.91 -6.00 0.09 -29.70 -28.49 -1.21 

8 17.0 -40.10 -0.84 -5.78 0.31 -5.93 0.06 -29.97 -1.48 

9 18.0 -40.86 -1.59 -5.84 0.25 -6.02 -0.03 -30.64 -2.15 

10 19.0 -41.91 -2.64 -5.98 0.11 -6.18 -0.18 -31.45 -2.96 

11 20.0 -43.25 -3.98 -6.21 -0.12 -6.39 -0.39 -32.40 -3.91 

12 21.0 -44.77 -5.50 -6.50 -0.41 -6.65 -0.65 -33.41 -4.92 

13 22.0 -45.56 -6.30 -6.67 -0.57 -6.79 -0.79 -33.91 -5.42 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER. 

Table 10.5.9	 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (3% 

Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil 

1 13.5 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 0.00 

2 14.0 -0.49 -0.47 -0.02 -0.09 -0.09 0.00 -0.14 -0.14 -0.01 -0.28 -0.27 -0.01 

3 14.5 -0.99 -0.96 -0.03 -0.19 -0.19 0.00 -0.28 -0.27 -0.01 -0.55 -0.53 -0.02 

4 15.0 -1.73 -1.68 -0.06 -0.37 -0.36 -0.01 -0.47 -0.45 -0.02 -0.95 -0.92 -0.03 

5 15.5 -2.73 -2.64 -0.09 -0.62 -0.60 -0.01 -0.70 -0.67 -0.03 -1.49 -1.43 -0.05 

6 16.0 -3.89 -3.76 -0.14 -0.92 -0.90 -0.02 -0.96 -0.92 -0.04 -2.10 -2.02 -0.08 

7 16.5 -4.60 -4.40 -0.20 -1.11 -1.07 -0.04 -1.10 -1.05 -0.05 -2.48 -2.37 -0.11 

8 17.0 -4.66 -0.26 -1.13 -0.06 -1.12 -0.07 -2.51 -0.15 

9 18.0 -4.81 -0.40 -1.17 -0.09 -1.15 -0.10 -2.59 -0.23 

10 19.0 -4.98 -0.57 -1.21 -0.14 -1.19 -0.14 -2.69 -0.32 

11 20.0 -5.17 -0.76 -1.26 -0.18 -1.23 -0.18 -2.79 -0.42 

12 21.0 -5.36 -0.96 -1.31 -0.24 -1.27 -0.22 -2.90 -0.53 

13 22.0 -5.46 -1.05 -1.33 -0.26 -1.29 -0.24 -2.95 -0.58 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER. 

10-77 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.5.10 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential and Commercial 

Sectors (3% Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil 

1 13.5 -0.76 -0.76 0.00 0.08 0.06 0.02 -0.04 -0.05 0.01 -0.93 -0.88 -0.05 

2 14.0 -4.14 -4.11 -0.03 0.10 0.00 0.10 -0.37 -0.41 0.03 -4.35 -4.14 -0.21 

3 14.5 -9.32 -9.25 -0.07 -0.37 -0.53 0.16 -1.07 -1.13 0.06 -8.71 -8.33 -0.38 

4 15.0 -16.86 -16.71 -0.15 -1.48 -1.69 0.22 -2.25 -2.33 0.07 -14.27 -13.70 -0.57 

5 15.5 -26.88 -26.59 -0.29 -3.28 -3.54 0.26 -3.95 -4.02 0.07 -21.04 -20.25 -0.79 

6 16.0 -38.02 -37.53 -0.49 -5.54 -5.81 0.27 -5.89 -5.95 0.06 -28.16 -27.13 -1.04 

7 16.5 -44.43 -43.67 -0.76 -6.89 -7.17 0.27 -7.01 -7.05 0.04 -32.18 -30.86 -1.32 

8 17.0 -44.77 -1.09 -6.91 0.25 -7.05 0.00 -32.48 -1.63 

9 18.0 -45.67 -1.99 -7.01 0.16 -7.17 -0.12 -33.23 -2.37 

10 19.0 -46.89 -3.22 -7.19 -0.03 -7.36 -0.31 -34.14 -3.28 

11 20.0 -48.41 -4.74 -7.47 -0.30 -7.62 -0.57 -35.19 -4.33 

12 21.0 -50.13 -6.46 -7.81 -0.64 -7.92 -0.87 -36.30 -5.44 

13 22.0 -51.02 -7.35 -8.00 -0.83 -8.08 -1.03 -36.86 -6.00 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER. 

10-78 
-50 

-45 

-40 

-35 

-30 

-25 

-20 

-15 

-10 

-5 

0 

5 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 

Candidate Standard Level 

National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.6	 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate) 

Tables 10.5.11 through 10.5.13 show the NPVs at a seven percent real discount rate for 

the CSLs analyzed for split system CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three 

climate regions evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Table 

10.5.11 shows the results for the residential sector only, Table 10.5.12 shows the results for the 

commercial sector only, and Table 10.5.13 shows the results for both sectors. Each table shows 

the breakdown of the NPV for coil-only units and blower coil units. Figure 10.5.7 depicts the 

total national and regional NPVs for each CSL. 

10-79 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.5.11 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential Sector (7% 

Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil 

1 13.5 -0.37 -0.36 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 0.00 -0.39 -0.36 -0.02 

2 14.0 -1.95 -1.88 -0.07 -0.11 -0.13 0.02 -0.20 -0.20 0.00 -1.81 -1.71 -0.10 

3 14.5 -4.26 -4.13 -0.12 -0.42 -0.45 0.03 -0.51 -0.52 0.00 -3.61 -3.42 -0.18 

4 15.0 -7.46 -7.28 -0.18 -0.98 -1.01 0.04 -1.02 -1.02 0.00 -5.85 -5.58 -0.27 

5 15.5 -11.81 -11.55 -0.26 -1.85 -1.89 0.04 -1.75 -1.75 0.00 -8.67 -8.30 -0.36 

6 16.0 -17.06 -16.69 -0.37 -3.00 -3.03 0.04 -2.67 -2.66 -0.01 -11.88 -11.42 -0.46 

7 16.5 -20.51 -20.02 -0.50 -3.78 -3.81 0.02 -3.29 -3.26 -0.03 -13.96 -13.38 -0.58 

8 17.0 -20.67 -0.65 -3.80 0.01 -3.31 -0.05 -14.08 -0.70 

9 18.0 -21.07 -1.05 -3.86 -0.06 -3.37 -0.10 -14.38 -1.01 

10 19.0 -21.60 -1.58 -3.96 -0.15 -3.45 -0.19 -14.75 -1.37 

11 20.0 -22.25 -2.23 -4.09 -0.28 -3.56 -0.30 -15.17 -1.79 

12 21.0 -22.99 -2.97 -4.25 -0.45 -3.69 -0.43 -15.63 -2.25 

13 22.0 -23.45 -3.44 -4.36 -0.55 -3.78 -0.51 -15.91 -2.53 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER. 

Table 10.5.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Commercial Sector (7% 

Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil 

1 13.5 -0.06 -0.05 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 0.00 

2 14.0 -0.25 -0.24 -0.01 -0.06 -0.05 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 0.00 -0.14 -0.13 -0.01 

3 14.5 -0.49 -0.47 -0.02 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 -0.13 -0.12 -0.01 -0.26 -0.25 -0.01 

4 15.0 -0.81 -0.78 -0.03 -0.19 -0.19 -0.01 -0.20 -0.19 -0.01 -0.44 -0.42 -0.02 

5 15.5 -1.25 -1.21 -0.05 -0.31 -0.30 -0.01 -0.30 -0.29 -0.01 -0.67 -0.64 -0.03 

6 16.0 -1.81 -1.75 -0.07 -0.46 -0.45 -0.01 -0.43 -0.41 -0.02 -0.96 -0.93 -0.04 

7 16.5 -2.21 -2.12 -0.09 -0.57 -0.55 -0.02 -0.51 -0.49 -0.02 -1.17 -1.12 -0.05 

8 17.0 -2.24 -0.12 -0.58 -0.03 -0.51 -0.03 -1.19 -0.06 

9 18.0 -2.30 -0.18 -0.59 -0.05 -0.53 -0.04 -1.22 -0.10 

10 19.0 -2.38 -0.26 -0.61 -0.06 -0.54 -0.06 -1.26 -0.14 

11 20.0 -2.46 -0.34 -0.64 -0.09 -0.56 -0.08 -1.30 -0.18 

12 21.0 -2.55 -0.43 -0.66 -0.11 -0.58 -0.09 -1.35 -0.23 

13 22.0 -2.60 -0.48 -0.67 -0.12 -0.59 -0.11 -1.38 -0.26 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER. 

10-80 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.5.13 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 for the Residential and Commercial 

Sectors (7% Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil Total** 

CoilOnly Blower 

Coil 

1 13.5 -0.43 -0.41 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 0.00 -0.42 -0.39 -0.03 

2 14.0 -2.20 -2.12 -0.08 -0.17 -0.18 0.01 -0.26 -0.26 0.00 -1.95 -1.84 -0.11 

3 14.5 -4.74 -4.60 -0.14 -0.53 -0.56 0.02 -0.64 -0.64 0.00 -3.87 -3.67 -0.20 

4 15.0 -8.27 -8.06 -0.21 -1.17 -1.20 0.03 -1.22 -1.21 -0.01 -6.29 -6.00 -0.29 

5 15.5 -13.06 -12.75 -0.31 -2.16 -2.19 0.03 -2.05 -2.04 -0.01 -9.33 -8.95 -0.39 

6 16.0 -18.87 -18.44 -0.43 -3.46 -3.48 0.02 -3.10 -3.07 -0.03 -12.85 -12.35 -0.50 

7 16.5 -22.73 -22.14 -0.59 -4.35 -4.36 0.00 -3.80 -3.75 -0.05 -15.13 -14.50 -0.63 

8 17.0 -22.91 -0.77 -4.38 -0.02 -3.82 -0.07 -15.27 -0.77 

9 18.0 -23.37 -1.24 -4.46 -0.10 -3.89 -0.15 -15.60 -1.11 

10 19.0 -23.98 -1.84 -4.57 -0.22 -4.00 -0.25 -16.01 -1.51 

11 20.0 -24.71 -2.57 -4.73 -0.37 -4.12 -0.38 -16.47 -1.98 

12 21.0 -25.53 -3.40 -4.91 -0.56 -4.27 -0.52 -16.98 -2.48 

13 22.0 -26.05 -3.91 -5.03 -0.68 -4.37 -0.62 -17.29 -2.79 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

** Total NPV for 17 through 22 SEER reflects the Coil-Only energy savings at 16.5 SEER. 

10-81 
-30 

-25 

-20 

-15 

-10 

-5 

0 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 

Candidate Standard Level 

National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.7	 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate) 

Central Air Conditioners—Single Package 

Table 10.5.14 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed 

for single package CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that 

were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 

10.5.14 are also broken down by sector (i.e., residential and commercial). Figure 10.5.8 depicts 

the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL. 

10-82 
 

Table 10.5.14 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. 

1 13.5 -0.62 -0.55 -0.07 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.07 -0.06 -0.02 -0.54 -0.50 -0.04 

2 14.0 -1.26 -1.12 -0.13 -0.10 -0.07 -0.03 -0.16 -0.13 -0.03 -1.05 -0.98 -0.07 

3 14.5 -2.32 -2.09 -0.23 -0.25 -0.20 -0.05 -0.32 -0.27 -0.06 -1.82 -1.69 -0.13 

4 15.0 -3.31 -2.98 -0.33 -0.42 -0.35 -0.08 -0.49 -0.41 -0.08 -2.49 -2.31 -0.18 

5 15.5 -4.53 -4.08 -0.45 -0.66 -0.56 -0.11 -0.70 -0.59 -0.11 -3.27 -3.03 -0.24 

6 16.0 -5.67 -5.11 -0.56 -0.91 -0.77 -0.14 -0.90 -0.77 -0.13 -3.97 -3.67 -0.30 

7 16.6 -6.37 -5.74 -0.63 -1.07 -0.91 -0.16 -1.02 -0.88 -0.15 -4.39 -4.05 -0.34 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

-7 

-6 

-5 

-4 

-3 

-2 

-1 

0 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Candidate Standard Level 

National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.8	 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV from 2016-2046 (3% discount rate) 

Table 10.5.15 shows the NPVs at a seven percent real discount rate for the CSLs 

analyzed for single package CACs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate 

regions that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in 

Table 10.5.14 are also broken down by sector (i.e., residential and commercial). Figure 10.5.9 

depicts the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL. 

10-83 
 

Table 10.5.15 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. 

1 13.5 -0.33 -0.29 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.01 -0.05 -0.04 -0.01 -0.25 -0.23 -0.02 

2 14.0 -0.65 -0.58 -0.07 -0.09 -0.08 -0.02 -0.09 -0.08 -0.02 -0.47 -0.44 -0.04 

3 14.5 -1.15 -1.04 -0.11 -0.19 -0.16 -0.03 -0.18 -0.15 -0.03 -0.82 -0.76 -0.06 

4 15.0 -1.62 -1.46 -0.15 -0.28 -0.24 -0.04 -0.26 -0.22 -0.04 -1.11 -1.03 -0.08 

5 15.5 -2.21 -2.01 -0.21 -0.41 -0.36 -0.05 -0.36 -0.31 -0.05 -1.47 -1.36 -0.11 

6 16.0 -2.83 -2.57 -0.27 -0.56 -0.49 -0.07 -0.47 -0.41 -0.06 -1.83 -1.69 -0.14 

7 16.6 -3.27 -2.96 -0.31 -0.66 -0.58 -0.08 -0.55 -0.48 -0.07 -2.08 -1.92 -0.16 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

-3.5 

-3.0 

-2.5 

-2.0 

-1.5 

-1.0 

-0.5 

0.0 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Candidate Standard Level 

National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV from 2016-2046 (7% discount rate) 

10-84 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.5.4.2 Heat Pumps 

The following sections provide the results of calculating net present value (NPV) based 

on a discount rate of seven percent for the candidate standard levels DOE analyzed for the two 

product classes of heat pumps, split system and single package. Results are cumulative to 2046. 

Heat Pumps—Split System 

Table 10.5.16 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed 

for split system HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were 

evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 10.5.16 are 

also broken down by sector (i.e., residential and commercial). Figure 10.5.10 depicts the total 

national and regional NPVs for each CSL. 

Table 10.5.16 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER HSPF 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. 

1 13.5 7.85 0.34 0.37 -0.03 0.30 0.31 -0.01 0.09 0.09 -0.01 0.01 0.02 -0.01 

2 14.0 8.00 1.73 1.88 -0.15 1.55 1.60 -0.04 0.44 0.47 -0.03 0.05 0.12 -0.06 

3 14.5 8.15 3.12 3.40 -0.28 2.82 2.90 -0.08 0.81 0.86 -0.06 0.09 0.21 -0.12 

4 15.0 8.30 4.31 4.78 -0.47 4.01 4.16 -0.14 1.15 1.24 -0.09 0.06 0.26 -0.20 

5 15.5 8.45 5.28 6.04 -0.76 5.14 5.39 -0.25 1.47 1.61 -0.14 -0.05 0.26 -0.31 

6 16.0 8.60 6.27 7.45 -1.19 6.35 6.77 -0.42 1.81 2.03 -0.22 -0.19 0.29 -0.48 

7 17.0 9.10 7.12 9.14 -2.03 7.94 8.69 -0.75 2.27 2.62 -0.35 -0.63 0.18 -0.81 

8 18.0 9.60 6.07 9.00 -2.93 8.49 9.60 -1.11 2.46 2.96 -0.50 -1.64 -0.48 -1.16 

9 19.0 10.10 4.17 7.74 -3.57 8.21 9.58 -1.37 2.44 3.04 -0.60 -2.71 -1.30 -1.40 

10 19.5 10.30 3.70 7.37 -3.67 8.07 9.48 -1.41 2.41 3.02 -0.61 -2.94 -1.50 -1.44 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

10-85 
-3 

-2 

-1 

0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

Candidate Standard Level 

National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$) 

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.10 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 

2016-2046 (3% discount rate) 

Table 10.5.17 shows the NPVs at a seven percent real discount rate for the CSLs 

analyzed for split system HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions 

that were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 

10.5.17 are also broken down by sector (i.e., residential and commercial). Figure 10.5.11 depicts 

the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL. 

10-86 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 10.5.17 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER HSPF 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. 

1 13.5 7.85 0.06 0.08 -0.02 0.08 0.08 -0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 

2 14.0 8.00 0.32 0.40 -0.08 0.39 0.42 -0.03 0.13 0.14 -0.02 -0.08 -0.05 -0.03 

3 14.5 8.15 0.57 0.72 -0.15 0.72 0.77 -0.05 0.23 0.26 -0.03 -0.16 -0.10 -0.06 

4 15.0 8.30 0.68 0.92 -0.24 0.97 1.06 -0.08 0.32 0.36 -0.04 -0.27 -0.18 -0.09 

5 15.5 8.45 0.61 0.98 -0.36 1.15 1.28 -0.13 0.38 0.45 -0.06 -0.45 -0.30 -0.14 

6 16.0 8.60 0.44 0.99 -0.55 1.30 1.51 -0.21 0.44 0.54 -0.10 -0.67 -0.45 -0.22 

7 17.0 9.10 -0.08 0.85 -0.92 1.41 1.78 -0.37 0.51 0.66 -0.15 -1.08 -0.72 -0.36 

8 18.0 9.60 -1.35 -0.02 -1.33 1.12 1.66 -0.53 0.47 0.69 -0.22 -1.73 -1.21 -0.51 

9 19.0 10.10 -2.92 -1.26 -1.66 0.59 1.26 -0.68 0.37 0.63 -0.27 -2.42 -1.78 -0.64 

10 19.5 10.30 -3.32 -1.60 -1.72 0.43 1.13 -0.70 0.33 0.61 -0.28 -2.59 -1.93 -0.66 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

-4 

-3 

-2 

-1 

0 

1 

2 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 

Candidate Standard Level 

National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$) 

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Figure 10.5.11 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 

2016-2046 (7% discount rate) 

10-87 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heat Humps—Single Package 

Table 10.5.18 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed 

for single package HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that 

were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 

10.5.18 are also broken down by sector (i.e., residential and commercial). Figure 10.5.12 depicts 

the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL. 

Table 10.5.18 Single Package Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV Results from 2016-2046 (3% Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER HSPF 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. 

1 13.5 7.85 -0.05 -0.02 -0.03 0.03 0.04 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.05 -0.04 -0.01 

2 14.0 8.00 -0.22 -0.14 -0.08 0.03 0.06 -0.03 0.01 0.03 -0.01 -0.16 -0.13 -0.03 

3 14.5 8.00 -0.58 -0.42 -0.16 -0.04 0.03 -0.06 0.00 0.03 -0.03 -0.35 -0.29 -0.06 

4 15.0 8.00 -0.94 -0.70 -0.24 -0.13 -0.03 -0.10 -0.02 0.02 -0.04 -0.51 -0.42 -0.09 

5 15.5 8.50 -1.35 -1.02 -0.33 -0.27 -0.14 -0.13 -0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.67 -0.55 -0.12 

6 16.0 9.00 -1.86 -1.46 -0.40 -0.47 -0.31 -0.16 -0.10 -0.03 -0.07 -0.87 -0.72 -0.15 

7 16.4 9.00 -2.16 -1.73 -0.43 -0.60 -0.42 -0.18 -0.13 -0.06 -0.07 -0.99 -0.83 -0.16 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

10-88 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

0.5 

0.0 

-0.5 

-1.0 

-1.5 

-2.0 

-2.5 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

Candidate Standard Level 

Figure 10.5.12 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 

2016-2046 (3% discount rate) 

Table 10.5.19 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed 

for single package HPs for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that 

were evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). NPVs in Table 

10.5.19 are also broken down by sector (i.e., residential and commercial). Figure 10.5.13 depicts 

the total national and regional NPVs for each CSL. 

Table 10.5.19 Single Package Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV Results from 2016-2046 (7% Discount Rate) 

CSL SEER HSPF 

Nation* (bill. 2008$) Hot-Humid (bill. 2008$) Hot-Dry (bill. 2008$) Rest of Cntry (2008$) 

Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. Total Resid. Comm. 

1 13.5 7.85 -0.05 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 0.00 

2 14.0 8.00 -0.18 -0.14 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.09 -0.08 -0.01 

3 14.5 8.00 -0.42 -0.35 -0.08 -0.12 -0.09 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.20 -0.17 -0.03 

4 15.0 8.00 -0.63 -0.52 -0.11 -0.20 -0.15 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.29 -0.25 -0.04 

5 15.5 8.50 -0.87 -0.72 -0.15 -0.30 -0.23 -0.06 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 -0.37 -0.31 -0.06 

6 16.0 9.00 -1.18 -0.99 -0.19 -0.43 -0.35 -0.08 -0.09 -0.06 -0.03 -0.48 -0.41 -0.07 

7 16.4 9.00 -1.38 -1.16 -0.21 -0.52 -0.43 -0.09 -0.11 -0.08 -0.03 -0.56 -0.48 -0.08 

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV. 

10-89 
National and Regional NPV (billion 2008$)

0.0 

-0.5 

-1.0 

-1.5 

Nation 

Hot-Humid 

Hot-Dry 

Rest-of-Country 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Candidate Standard Level 

Figure 10.5.13 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV from 

2016-2046 (7% discount rate) 

10-90 
 

 

 

 

REFERENCES 

1	 Air-Conditioning, Heating and Refrigerator Institute. Historical shipments and shipmentweighted efficiency data submittal. December 2008. 

2	 U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2009 with Projections to 2030. March 2009. U.S. DOE–EIA: Washington, D.C. DOE/EIA0383(2009). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2009).pdf> 

3	 Office of Management and Budget. OMB Circular A-4, Regulatory Analysis. 2003. OMB: 

Washington, D.C. September 17, 2003. 

<www.whitehouse.gov/omb/assets/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.pdf> 

10-91