### 1 

## Technical Support Document (September 18, 2015)

Maricopa Association of Governments 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan

– Submittal of

Marginal Area requirements for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area (June 2014)



## Contents

I. Introduction

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 2
II. Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submittal of SIP Revisions

................................ ................ 3
a) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

................................ ................................ ......................... 3
b) Summary of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ............................... 3
c) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ .......................... 4
III. Analysis of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 4
a) Base Year Emissions Inventory (section 182(a)(1))

................................ ................................ .......... 4

1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 4
2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 5
3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 8


### b) Emissions Statement (section 182(a)(3)(B))

................................ ................................ ................. 9

1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 9
2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 9
3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 10


### c) Pre

- 1990 Reasonably Available Control Technology Corrections (section 182(a)(2)(A))

.............. 10

1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 10
3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 10


### d) Savings Clause: Pre

- 1990 Corrections to Previously Required Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs (section 182(a)(2)(B))

................................ ................................ ..................... 11

1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

................................ ................................ ................................ . 11
2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 11

3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 11


### e) Permit Programs: Nonattainment Area Preconstruction, New Source Review (section 182(a)(2)(C)

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 11

1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

................................ ................................ ................................ . 11
2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 11

3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 12

### 2 f) Offset Requirements (section 182(a)(4))

................................ ................................ ....................... 12

1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

................................ ................................ ................................ . 12

2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 12
3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 12


### g) Periodic Emissions Inventory (section 182(a)(3)(A)

................................ ................................ ... 12

1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

................................ ................................ ................................ . 12
2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 12

3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 13


### h) Transportation Conformity (section 176(c))

................................ ................................ .............. 13

V. Recommendation

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ . 13



## I. Introduction

T his technical support document (TSD) summarize s the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) technical

review of the “Maricopa Association of Governments 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan

– Submittal of Marginal Area requirements for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area (June 2014)” adopted by the Maricopa Association of

Governments (MAG) on June 25, 2014 , submitted by MAG to the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) on June 27, 2014

, and submitted by ADEQ to EPA on behalf of MAG on July 2, 2014. Any questions pertaining to this TSD should be directed to Nancy Levin at 415

- 972

- 3848 or levin.nancy@epa.gov

.

On March 12 , 2008, EPA strengthened the primary and secondary eight

- hour ozone nati onal ambient air quality
standard s (NAAQS) to 0.075 ppm (annual fourth

- highest daily maximum 8

- hour concentration, averaged over 3 years) (73 FR 16436). 1 In accordance with section 107(d) of the Clean Air Act (CAA or Act) , EPA must designate an
area “nonattainment” if it is violating the NAAQS or if it is contributing to a violation of the NAAQS in a nearby

area.

EPA designated the Phoenix

- Mesa ( here in after referred to as Maricopa) area as nonattainment for the 2008

ozone NAAQS on May 21, 2012, effective July 20, 2012 (77 FR 30088). The Maricopa nonattainment area (NAA),
which includes a portion of Maricopa County and a portion of Pinal County , was classified by operation of law as a marginal nonattainment area (40 CFR 81. 303). ADEQ submitted the “Maricopa Association of Governments 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan

– Submittal of Marginal Area requirements for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area (June 2014)” ( MAG 2014 Eight

- hour Ozone P lan or S ubmittal ) on July 2, 2014

.

EPA proposed the 2008 ozone NAAQS SIP Requirements Rule (S RR) on June 6, 2013 (78 FR 34178) and finalized
the S RR on March 6, 2015 (80 FR 12264 , codified at 40 CFR part 51, subpart AA ), ef fective April 6, 2015. The SR R
both promulgated implementation requireme nt s for the 2008 ozone NAAQS and revoked the 1997 ozone
NAAQS

. 2

On A ugust 27, 2015, EPA proposed, among other things, to reclassify the Maricopa NAA as Moderate for the
2008 ozone NAAQs because the Maricopa NAA failed to attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS by the marginal area

1 Since the 2008 primary and secondary NAAQS for ozone are identical, for convenience, we refer to both as "the 2008 ozone NAAQS" or "the 2008 ozone standards."

2 The SRR revokes the 1997 NAAQS, but not all of the requirements for implementing the 1997 NAAQ S.

### 3 attainment deadline of July 20, 2015 (80 FR 51992)

. Comments on the proposed rule are due by September 28,

2015. Should this action be finalized, the Maricopa NAA would be subject to additional requirements, including 1) an attainment demonstration; 2) provisions for reasonably available control technology (RACT) and reasonably available control measures (RACM); 3) reasonable further progress (RFP) reductions in volatile organic com pounds ( VOC ) and/or nitrogen oxide ( NOx ) emissions; 4) contingency measures; 5) a vehicle inspection and maintenance program; and 6) NOx and VOC emission offsets at a ratio of 1.15 to 1 for major source permits (s ee 40 CFR part 51, subpart AA and CAA sect ions 182(b) and 172(c) )

. A SIP revision addressing all of these requirements would be due to EPA by January 1, 2017. 3



## II. Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submittal of SIP Revisions

a) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

CAA s ection 110(a)(1) and 110(l) require states to provide reasonable notice and public hearing prior to adoption of SIP revisions. Section 110(k)(1)(B) requires EPA to determine whether a SIP submittal is complete within 60 days of receipt. Any plan that we have not affirmatively determined to be complete or incomplete will become complete six months after the day of submittal by operation of law. A finding of completeness does not approve the submittal as part of the SIP nor does it indicate that the submittal is approvable. It do es start a 12

- month clock for EPA to act on the SIP submittal (s ee CAA section 110(k)(2) )

. 

### b) Summary of the State’s Submittal ADEQ’s submittal to EPA documents the public review process followed by MAG and ADEQ in adopting the “MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Pla n

– Submittal of Marginal Area Requirements for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area” prior to submittal to EPA as a revision to the SIP (See Appendix B. 1)

. It includes the following
documentation:

• A copy of the notice to the public published on April 14 and 15, 2014, announcing a public hearing on the MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan to be held on May 15, 2014 at 5:30 p.m. 4

• Affidavit of publication of the public hearing and 30

- day comment period published on April 14 and 15,

2014 in The Arizona Republic, a newspaper of general circulation in Maricopa County.

• A statement in the public notice that the draft document was available for public review at the MAG Offices in Phoenix, AZ and on the MAG website.

• The May 15, 2014 public hea ring transcript

. 5

• A notarized affirmation that a public hearing was held by ADEQ and MAG on May 15, 2014 to receive public comment on the “MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan

– Submittal of Marginal Area Requirements

for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area

. ” 6

• Com ments and responses to comments from public comment period

. 7

3 80 FR 51992, 51999.

4 The public notice announced a jointly

- held ADEQ

- MAG public hearing at MAG offices, 302 North 1 st Avenue, Phoenix,
Arizona 85003.

5 Public Hearing, MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan

- Submittal of Marginal Area Requirements, Phoenix, Arizona, May 15, 2014, 5:32 p.m., MAG Offices, Saguaro Room, 302 North 1 st Avenue, Second Floor, Phoenix, Arizona 85003.

6 Certification of holding of Public Hearing on the MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan

- Submittal of Marginal Area Requirements for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area, Lindy Bauer, MAG Environmental Director, May 16, 2014.

7 “Response to Public Comments on the Draf t MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan

– Submittal of Marginal Area Requirements for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area, May 15, 2014 Public Hearing,” and April 15, 2014 (7:54 AM) email from Lisa M Tomczak, ADEQ to Matthew Poppen re: FW: Transmittal of the Prelimin ary Draft MAF 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan

– Submittal of Marginal Area Requirements.

### 4 In addition, ADEQ’s submittal documents the adoption of the MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan by the MAG Regional Council. It includes the following:

• A June 25, 2014 MAG Regional Council resolution approving the MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan, and

• A letter dated June 27, 2014 from Dennis Smith, MAG to Henry Darwin, ADEQ, requesting that ADEQ submit the MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan to the EPA for approval.



### c) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal Based on the documentation included in ADEQ’s submittal, we find that the submittal of the MAG 2014 Eight

Hour Ozone Plan, as a SIP revision, satisfies the procedural requirements of sections 110(a)(1) and 110(l) of the Act requiring states to provide reas onable notice and public hearing prior to adoption of SIP revisions.

The MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan became complete by operation of law on January 2, 2015 p ursuant to section 110(k)(1)(B).



## III. Analysis of the State’s Submittal

For Marginal nonattainment areas, states are required to comply with section s 172(c) and 182(a) of the Act. Marginal areas have up to three years from the effective date of designation to attain the NAAQS ( 40 CFR 51.1103(a) ) . Unlike areas classified as Moderate and abo ve, Marginal areas are not required to submit an
attainment demonstration or RFP provisions (see CAA section 182(a) and 80 FR 12268 )

. Below we discuss the CAA and SRR requirements, how they are addressed in the submittal , and our recommended action.



### a) Base Year Emissions Inventory (section 182(a)(1))

1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

CAA section 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1115 (a) require states to submit a “base year inventory” for each 2008

ozone nonattainment area within two years of the effective date of designation . This inventory must be “ a comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from sources of VOC and NOX emitted within the boundaries of the nonattainment area as required by CAA section 182(a)(1) ” (40 CFR 51 .1100(bb), see also CAA section 172(c)(3))

. In addition, 40 CFR 51.1115(a) requires that the inventory year be selected consistent with the baseline year for the RFP plan, which is usually the most recent calendar year for which a complete
triennial inven tory is required to be submitted to EPA under the Air Emissions Reporting Requirements (AERR) (40 CFR part 51, subpart A) (see 40 CFR 51.1110(b))

.

40 CFR 51.1115(c) requires that the emission values in the base year shall be “actual ozone season day

emissions

, ” as defined in 40 CFR section 51.1100(cc)

. 40 CFR 51.1100(cc) defines ozone season day emissions as:

“

. . . an average day's emissions for a typical ozone season work weekday. The state shall select, subject to EPA approval, the particular mont h(s) in the ozone season and the day(s) in the work week to be represented, considering the conditions assumed in the development of RFP plans and/or emissions budgets for transportation conformity.”

The preamble to the final SRR explains that EPA changed the temporal basis for determining base year emissions from “summer day emissions” to “ozone season day emissions” to account for ozone seasons that may become
nonattainment from exceedances outside the summer months ( 80 FR 12290 ):

### 5 “ The EPA has con cluded that ozone season day emissions are the most appropriate temporal basis for developing the emissions to be included in this inventory, rather than summer day emissions as required by past implementation rules or the AERR. The EPA believes that summe r day emissions required previously are an insufficient nomenclature, since in some areas nonattainment may be due to ozone
exceedances in mo n ths other than summer months (e.g., wintertime), and necessitate focusing planning efforts on emissions occurring during the more relevant time period. Ozone season day emissions means an average day’s emissions for a typical ozone season work weekday as defined in CAA section 51.1100(cc). The state will select, subject to EPA approval, the particular month(s) in the ozone season and the day(s) in the work week to be represented ...”

40 CFR 51.1100(n) defines “Ozone season” as, “for each state, the ozone monitoring season as defined in 40 CFR part 58, appendix D, section 4.1(i) for that state.” Pursuant to 40 CFR par t 58, appendix D, section 4.1(i), the ozone monitoring season for Maricopa NAA begins in January and ends in December. 8

40 CFR 51.1115(d) requires the state to report emissions from point sources according to the point source
emissions thresholds of the AERR ( 40 CFR part 51, subpart A ) , which are identical to the major source thresholds under 40 CFR part 70 (see 40 CFR 51.3 0)

.



### 2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

The Maricopa County Air Quality Department (MCAQD ) prepared a base year emissions inventory, with the
assistance of MAG , and MAG submitted the base year inventory as part of the MAG 2014 Eight

- hour Ozone Plan

. 9 MCAQD selected 2011 as the base year

.

The base year inventory includes ozone season

- day emissions from point sources, area sources, nonroad mobile

sources, and on

- road mobile sources. Appendix A, Exhibit 1 includes a description of the methods used to
estimate emissions for each category ( or subcategory)

.

The following is a summary of the 2011 M aricopa NAA Emissions Inventory.

Maricopa NAA 2011 B ase Y ear 8

- hour Ozone S eason D ay Emission Inventory (July

- September)

Category VOC lbs/day % of
total NOx lbs/day % of total

Point sources 4,908 1% 15,407 3.1%

Area sources
Fuel combustion 593 0.1% 23,484 4.8% Industrial processes 17,452 4% 1,490 0.3%

Solvent use 166,557 34% Storage/transport 28,766 6% Waste treatment/disposal 838 0% 316 0.1%

Miscellaneous area sources 13,650 3% 6,532 1.3%

8 Table D

- 3 of Appendix D to Part 58

– Ozone Monitoring Season by State

. 9 MAG 2014 Eight

- hour Ozone Plan, Table 1

– Summary Table of Nonattainment Area Emissions from the Maricopa County Air Quality Department 2011 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors, February 2014, page 5. See also Appendix A, Exhibit 1.

### 6 MOBILE

- Non road sources 111,798 23% 141,444 28.8%

MOBILE

- On road sources 148,186 30% 301,824 61.5% Total (excluding biogenic)* 492,748 100% 490,495 100.0% *Differences due to rounding.



### Point Sources For the purpose of the emissions inventory (EI), MCAQD considers any major source, as defined under 40 CFR part 70, as a point source. The threshold for major sources in a marginal nonattainment area is 100 tons per year
of VOC or NOx

. The 18 point sources listed in the in the 2011 Maricopa NAA Emissions Inventory are primarily power generation facilities and large manufacturers. The inventory includes emission reduction credits as of December 31, 2011 for VOC (114.7 tpy) and NOx (9.8 tpy). Section 2 of the 2011 Maricopa NAA Emissions Inventory contains a detailed description of point source emission estimates.

Point sources in the Maricopa County are required to report their emission data and calculations to MCAQD (See MCAQD Rule 100, Section 500 and ADEQ Rule R18

- 2

- 327). 10 Point sources in Pinal County are required to report their emissions data and calculations to the Pinal County Air Quality Control District (PCAQCD) (See PCAQCD
Rule 3

- 1

- 103). 11 There are no point sources in Pinal County. 12

Appendix A of the Maricopa NAA Emissions Inventory includes detailed instructions for regulated sources, including sample forms, and an emission calculation method hierarch y. Each year, MCAQD prepares forms with

pre

- populated data from the prior year, sends out the forms and holds workshops for industry. Once received, MCAQD checks EI reports for errors, missing information, and completeness, and contact businesses for

corre ctions if needed. (See section 2.7 of the 2011 Maricopa NAA Emissions Inventory

- Quality assurance/quality control procedures ).



### Area Sources Area sources collectively represent individual sources that are small and numerous, or activities, such as consumer and commercial products and pesticides, that have not been inventoried as specific point or mobile sources. They are generally grouped in a way that they can be estimated collectively using one methodology. A detailed description of area source emission estimates is found in section 3 of the 2011 Maricopa NAA Emissions Inventory.

The Submittal lists each area source category according to its Source Classification Code (SCC) and description. The area sources are grouped into the follow categories: 1) Fuel combustion, 2) Industrial processes, 3) Solvent use, 4) Storage and transport; 5) Waste treatment and disposal; and 6) Miscellaneous area s ources. The largest area sources of VOC emissions are consumer and commercial products (96,469 lbs/day), architectural coatings (30,973 lbs/day), residential portable gas cans (16,311 lbs/day), rubber/plastic product manufacturing (14,110 lbs/day), wildfi res (12,794 lbs/day) and auto refinishing (10,212 lbs/day). The largest area sources of NOx emissions are industrial distillate oil engines (11,733 lbs/day), wildfires (5,833 lbs/day), commercial/institutional natural gas (4,992 lbs/day) and industrial nat ural gas (4,285 lbs/day). (See Submittal Table 1).

MCAQD used various methodologies for estimating emission s from area source categories including:

• Surveys for data on local usage or using state

- wide data (See, e.g., section 3.2.2. Industrial natural gas)

.

• Published per

- capital or per

- employee emission factors (See, e.g., section 3.4.6 Consumer and commercial products)

.

10 EPA approved Rule 100, Section 500 and ADEQ R18

- 2

- 237 into the SIP on November 5, 2012 (77 FR 66405).

11 EPA approved PCAQCD Rules 3

- 1

- 103 into the SIP on December 20, 2000 (65 FR 79742).

12 Phone conversation with Bob Downing, MCAQD, May 29, 2015.

### 7 • Available data from annual emission reports and “scaling up” using employment data (See section 3.4.4 Graphic Arts)

.

• Process

- level and o peration data from permits and emission reports for categories where there were no significant unpermitted sources (See section 3.3.3 Secondary metal production)

.

Seasonal and season

- day emissions were calculated based on assumptions about when the emissions occurred during the year and how often the activity occurred (days/week). For example, MCAQD assumed that consumer and commercial product use occurs uniformly across the year, and calculated season

- day emissions by dividing annual emissions by 36 5 days. For pesticide use, MCAQD determined that 36.4% of pesticides were applied during the ozone season. Total seasonal emissions were divided by 91 days (13 weeks, 7 days a week) to
determine season

- day emissions. Dry cleaning activities were assumed t o occur 5 days a week throughout the year, so the season

- day emissions were derived by dividing annual total emissions by 260 (5 days/week * 52 weeks/year) (See section 3.4.3). The ozone season day emissions for industrial oil combustion were calculated by multiplying annual County emissions by 25% to convert to the three

- month ozone season , and dividing by the number of days that activity occurs during the ozone season.

Since the NAA includes portions of Maricopa and Pinal Counties, the MCAQD developed a calculation to account for partial county and multi

- county emissions. Section 1.5 of the inventory document describes this method. As most of the emission sources are located in Maricopa County, MCAQD applied a demographic “multiplier” to Maricopa County d ata to estimate emissions in the NAA. Specifically, MCAQD used a demographic or land use multiplier based on the ratio of population (or employment) in Maricopa County versus that in the 8

- hour Ozone NAA. For example, for Auto refinishing emissions, MCAQD first calculated county

- wide estimates based on county employment and a per employee emission factor, and then used the multiplier of industrial employment in the NAA v. County (372,731/374,338 or 99.57%) to calculate annual emissions for the NAA. (See se ction 3.4.1.2)

The same approach was used for land use (e.g., acreage within Maricopa County/acreage within 8

- hour Ozone NAA = Percentage within 8

- hour Ozone NAA). For example, MCAQD used Maricopa County

- wide National Emissions Inventory (NEI) data on pe sticide use, and then multiplied it by the ratio of agricultural land in the 8

- hour NAA (161,371 acres) to Maricopa County (276,016 acres) emissions for agricultural pesticide usage (58.46%) to determine annual emissions in the NAA (See section 3.4.8) days /week and 13 weeks).



### Nonroad mobile sources The EI contains nonroad mobile emission estimates for the following categories: agricultural equipment, airport ground support equipment (GSE) and auxiliary power units (APU), commercial equipment, construction and mining equipment, industrial equipment, lawn and garden equipment, pleasure craft, railway maintenance equipment, recreational equipment, aircraft, and locomotives. A detailed description of nonroad emission estimates is found in section 4 of the 2011 Maricopa NAA Emissions Inventory.

The largest nonroad sources of VOC emissions in the Maricopa NAA are lawn and garden equipment (52,584.9 lbs/day), commercial equipment (14,474.7 lbs/day), construction & mining equipment pleasure craft (13,534.5 lbs/day ), aircraft (8,385.8 lbs/day) and recreational equipment (8,020.9 lbs/day). The largest sources of nonroad NOx emissions are construction and mining equipment (90,774.0 lbs/day), aircraft (12,535.3 lbs/day), commercial equipment (8,299.0 lbs/day) and lawn and garden equipment (7,078.4 lbs/day).

MCAQD used EPA’s NONROAD2008a model (July 2009) to estimate emissions from nonroad mobile source categories with the exception of aircraft, airport GSE, and locomotives. NONROAD2008a (2009) is EPA’s latest publish ed version of the NONROAD model. Arizona Department of Weights and Measures provided monthly temperature and fuel data inputs for NONROAD2008a. Temporal allocations included the most conservative

### 8 (use the highest allocation) fraction in each nonroad equipm ent class to calculate season

- day emissions (See
Table 4.1

- 2). MCAQD made local adjustments to EPA default numbers for commercial lawn and garden equipment (See section 4.1). The construction and mining emissions were calculated using NONROA2008a, and
emis sions for the nonattainment area were based on the ratio of construction employment in the nonattainment area to that in Maricopa County.

MCAQD used Federal Aviation Administration’s Emission Dispersion Modeling System model (Ver. 5.1.1.) for
aircraft and airport GSE emission estimates. Maricopa County locomotive emissions were calculated by multiplying diesel fuel usage provided by three railroad operations by published EPA emission factors. 13 The nonattainment area locomotive emissions were determined by multiplying the Maricopa County emissions by the percent of track in the nonattainment area (See 2011 Maricopa NAA Emissions Inventory section 4.12)

.



### Onroad mobile sources MAG estimated onroad mobile emissions using EPA’s Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) version 2010b, which was the latest version available at the time of EI preparation. 14 The modeling accounted of oxygenated fuel and the Arizona Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) programs applied in Maricopa County in 2011. The
2011 vehicle mile s traveled (VMT) was estimated based on 2011 Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data provided by the Arizona Department of Transportation. A detailed description of on

- road emission estimates is found in section 5 of the 2011 Maricopa NAA Emissio ns Inventory.



### 3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

EPA has review ed the 2011 season

- day EI including emission estimates for point source, area source, nonroad
and o n road sources. We find that MCAQD’s selection of 2011 as the base year is appropriate

. 15 We also find that
the data elements in the base year inventory are “consistent with the detail” required by the AERR.

Generally, MCAQD used published emission factors from EPA’s National Emissions Inventory

, 16 made assumptions consistent with EPA’s Emis sion Inventory Improvement Program Guidance, 17 and the used most recent EPA models available at the time of inventory preparation. In addition, the submittal provides sufficient documentation and explanation to allow EPA to make a determination on the accep tability of the EI

.

13 Data provided by Burlington Northern/Santa Fe Railway, Union Pacific Railway and Amtrak.

14 Per March 13, 2015 email from Taejoo Shin, MAG to Nancy Levin, EPA. MAG developed onroad emission inventory in December 2012. MOVES2010b has subsequently been replaced by MOVES2014. MOVES2014 was released in July 2014 and updated in October 2014. For more information see “EPA Releases MOVES2014 Mobile Source Emissions Model, Questions and Answers, Office of Transportation and Air Quality U.S. EPA, EPA

- 420

- F

- 14

- 049, July 2014 at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/documents/420f14049.pdf.

15 As noted above, the base year must be the same as the baseline year for RFP, which is the most recent calendar year for which a complete triennial inventory is required under the AERR, unless an alternative year is demonstrated to be appropriate. Because M aricopa is classified as a marginal nonattainment area, no RFP plan is required at this time. Nonetheless, given that Maricopa was designated nonattainment for the 2008 ozone standard in 2012, the presumptive baseline year for such a plan would be 2011 bec ause 2011 was the most recent calendar year for which a complete triennial inventory was required to be submitted to EPA under the AERR (see 40 CFR 51.30(b)(1)).

16 The National Emissions Inventory (NEI) is a comprehensive and detailed estimate of air emis sions of both Criteria and Hazardous air pollutants from all air emissions sources. The NEI is prepared every three years by the EPA based primarily upon emission estimates and emission model inputs provided by State, Local and Trival air agencies for sour ces in their jurisdictions, and supplemented by data developed by the EPA. See http://www3.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/2011inventory.html.

17 See, e.g., EPA, Emissions Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP), Volume III, Chapter 1. Introduction to Area Source
Emissi on Inventory Development (Revised Final January 2001), Chapter 11. Gasoline Marketing (Stage I and Stage II) (Revised Final January 2001); Chapter 18. Structure Fires (Revised Final January 2001), and Area Source Category Method
Abstract

- Leaking Undergro und Storage Tanks, May 2001.

### 9 However, we believe that MCAQD’s initial selection of July

– September as the basis for calculating the “ozone season day emissions,” based on 1981

- 1991 exceedance data, 18 was not appropriate. Accordingly, we requested
that MCAQD revie w more recent ozone monitoring data. Upon review of these data, MCAQD determined that the appropriate months to use to calculate ozone season day emissions are June

- August. 19 Therefore, MCAQD provided a “recast” ozone season day EI for June

- August. 20 The MCAQD’s “recast” analysis shows that, compared with the July

- September EI, the June

- August EI showed a small net increase in season day emissions for anthropogenic sources: VOC increased 0.41% and NOx increased 2.15%. MCAQD also added emission
reducti on credits (ERCs) to the June

- August EI for point sources. 21 Total VOC ERCs were adjusted from 114.7 to 213.03 tons/year (1,167 lbs/season day) and total NOx ERCs were adjusted from 9.8 to 14.14 tons/year (77.5 lbs/season day ) to account for additional VOC and NOx ERCs. 22

We agree with MCAQD that using June

– August to calcu late ozone season day emissions is appropriate for the Maricopa NAA , given that it was the three

- month period with the highest average Air Quality Index value and the greatest number of exceedance s of the 2008 ozone standard in the NAA in 2011

. However, in light of the relatively small differences in total anthropogenic emissions between the June

- A ugust 2011 and July

– September 2011 periods , we do not believe it is necessary for MCAQD, MAG and ADEQ to submit a formal SIP revision reflecting the June

- August period at this time. Accordingly, we find that the base year emission estimates approaches and methodologies are acceptable and that the state has met the requirements of the Ac t and the SRR with respect to base year inventories. We recommend that a revised 2011 season

- day EI based on
June

- August data be included as part of a subsequent SIP revision to meet the CAA's Moderate ozone nonattainment area requirements, as described ab ove.



### b) Emissions Statement (section 182(a)(3)(B))
1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements Section 182(a)(3)(B) (i) of the Act requires States to submit a SIP revision requiring owners or operators of stationary sources of VOC or NO X to provide the State with statements of actual emissions from such sources. Statements must be submitted at least every year and must contain a certification that the information contained in the statement is accurate to the best knowledge of the individual certifying the statement . Section 182(a)(3)(B)(ii) allows states to waive the emission statement requirement for any class or category of stationary sources which emit less than 25 tons per year of VOCs or NO X , if the state provides an inventory of emissions
from such class or c ategory of sources as part of the baseline or periodic inventory. This inventory must be based on the use of the emission factors established by EPA or other methods acceptable to EPA.



### 2) Summary of the State’s Submittal
ADEQ references three SIP

- approved rules as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(a)(3)(B): Maricopa County Rule 100, Section 500

– Monitoring and Records

, ADEQ Rule 18

- 2

- 327

- Annual Emissions Inventory
Questionnaire and Pinal County rule PG3

- 1

- 103

- Annual EI questionnaire.

18 Appendix A, Exhibit 1: 2011 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors for the Maricopa County, Arizona, Eight

Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area. Maricopa County Air Quality Department. February 2014. An “exceedance” is an ambient concentration that exceeds the relevant NAAQS.

19 Maricopa County Air Quality Department, 2011 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors for the Maricopa County, Arizona, Eight

- Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area, Addendum, August 2015 , section 3.1.

20 Ibid. section 3.2.

21 Total VOC ERCs are 1,167.3 lbs/season day. Total NOx ERCs are 77.5 lbs/season day.

22 ERCs from Penn Racquet Sports Inc. (March 6, 2009). See Addendum, Table A.1.

### 10 3) EPA Eval uation of the State’s Submittal Maricopa County Rule 100 (Section 500, Subsection 503) (approved into the Arizona SIP on November 5, 2012 (77 FR 66405)) requires owners/operators of sources that emit or emit NOx or VOC to submit, upon request of
the Contro l Officer, emission statements showing actual or estimated actual emissions of NOx and VOC, containing (at a minimum) all information required by Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule, 23 40 CFR, Subpart A, Appendix A, Table 2a. 24 Section 503 also requires th at Emissions Statements be submitted annually. The Control Officer may waive this requirement for the owner/operator of any source which emits less than 25 tons per year of NOx or VOC with an approved emission inventory for sources based on AP

- 42 or other methodologies approved by EPA



### .
ADEQ Rule 18

- 2

- 327, Annual Emissions Inventory Questionnaire (approved into the Arizona SIP on November 5, 2012 (77 FR 66405)), requires every source subject to air permit requirements to complete and submit an annual

emissi ons inventory questionnaire including facility contact information, process and control device descriptions, and a quantification of actual emissions of regulated air pollutants 25 using the appropriate quantification method as described in the rule.

PG3

- 1

- 103 (approved into the Arizona SIP on December 20, 2000 (65 FR 79742)) requires every source that is subject to a permit or obtains an authorization to operate, to complete and submit to the Control Officer an annual emissions inventory questionnaire. The questionnaire must include the source’s name, address, contact information, address, and process information (e.g., including design capacity, operations schedule, emission control devices). 26

Based on the contents of these rules, we find that Arizona has met the requirements of CAA section 182(a)(3)(B)
for emission statements.



### c) Pre

- 1990 Reasonably Available Control Technology Corrections (section 182(a) (2 ) (A) )
1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements Section 182(a)(2)(A) of the CAA requires the State to submi t, within 6 months of classification under section 181(a), all rules and corrections to existing RACT rules that were required under section 172(b) of the old (pre

1990 Amendments) CAA. Newly designated nonattainment areas are not subject to the RACT "fix

- ups" required by section 182(a)(2)(A) because they were not subject to section 172(b) of the old law (see 57 FR 13498, 13503).



### 2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

The Submittal lists the SIP

- approved Rules that apply to source categories subject to CAA sec tion 182(a)(2)(A)
and notes that EPA approved Arizona’s RACT demonstration for the Maricopa County 1

- hour Serious Area Ozone NAA on June 14, 2005 (70 FR 34362).



### 3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal As noted in the Submittal, EPA previously determined that Arizona had met the VOC RACT requirements under section 182(a)(2)(A) for the Maricopa one

- hour ozone NAA (see 70 FR 13435 and 70 FR 34363 ). Although the NAA

23 The Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule is now part of the AER R (see 73 FR 76539).

24 Appendix G of the Maricopa County Air Pollution Control Rules, section 4, specifies that 40 CFR, Subpart A, Appendix A,
Table 2a is incorporated by reference as of July 1, 2014. Table 2a was revised on February 19, 2015 (80 FR 8787, 8790)

25 Regulated air pollutant is defined by SIP

- approved ADEQ rule R18

- 2

- 101, section 120 to include NOx and VOC. (See 40 CFR 52.120(c)(162)(i)(A)(2)

, 26 On September 27, 2006 ADEQ submitted an amendment to PG Rule 3

- 1

- 103, however, the change does not substantively change the rule. Rather it reflected ADEQ’s reclassification of Class A and Class B permits to Class I, Class II, and Class I II. Under this amendment, the term “Class B permits” is replaced by “Class II or Class II permits.”

### 11 for the 2008 eight

- hour ozone standard is larger than that the one

- hour NAA, only the origina l one

- hour area is subject to the RACT correction requirement of 182(a)(2)(A). Therefore, we find that Arizona has met the requirements of CAA section 182(a)(2)(A) with respect to the Maricopa 2008 eight

- hour ozone NAA

.



### d) Savings Clause: Pre

- 1990 Corrections to Previously Required Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs (section 182(a)( 2 ) (B) )
1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements Section 182(a)(2)(B)(i) of the Act requires the State to submit a revision , immediately after November 15, 1990, to correct any pre

- 1990 schedules for vehicle emission control inspection and maintenance programs

, immediately after November 15, 1990. In addition , s ection 182(a)(2)(B)(ii) requires that the State shall review, revise, update, and republish in the Federa l Register the guidance for the States for motor vehicle inspection and maintenance programs (I/ M) within 1 year of November 15, 1990. EPA's I/M regulations are codified at 40 CFR part 51, subpart S ("Inspection/Maintenance Program Requirements"), sections 51.350 through 51.373. As explained in the preambles to proposed and final SRR, no new vehicle I/M programs are currently required for purposes of the 2008 ozone NAAQS (78 FR 34194

- 34196, 80 FR 12283)

.



### 2) Summary of the State’s Submittal

The Submittal notes that EPA approved ADEQ’s Basic and Enhanced Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs on January 22, 2003, and approved a statutory provision extending the State’s vehicle emissions inspection program on December 21, 2009 (74 FR 67819).



### 3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal As noted in the Submittal, EPA previously approved, an "enhanced" I/M program that exceeds the requirements of section 182(a)(2)(B) for the Phoenix

- Mesa nonattainment area (69 FR 2912 (January 22, 2003)). Therefore , we find that Arizona has met the requirements of CAA section 182(a)(2)(B) with respect to the Maricopa 2008 eight

hour ozone NAA.



### e) Permit Programs: Nonattainment Area Preconstruction , New Source Review (section 182(a)(2 ) (C)
1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

S ection 18 2 (a)(2)(C) of the Act, requires states to submit a SIP revision within 2 years after November 15, 1990

to require pre

- construction permits for new or modified major stationary sources in the NAA, and to correct requirements regarding pre

- 1990 permit programs. However, as explained in the preambles to EPA’s final Phase 2 implementation rule for the 1997 eight

- h our standard and the final SRR

, EPA considers the submission of new source review (NSR) SIPs due on November 15, 1992 to have fulfilled this CAA requirement (See 75 FR 71683, n. 110, and 80 FR 12267)

. Therefore, EPA has concluded that the 2

- year deadline c ontained in CAA section 182(a)(2)(C)(i) does not apply to subsequent NSR SIPs for revised ozone standards, including the nonattainment NSR SIPs for implementing the 8

- hour ozone NAAQS. (Id.) Accordingly, the SRR at 40 CFR 51.1114 sets a deadline of 3 years from the date of designation for states to submit their nonattainment NSR program SIPs for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.



### 2) Summary of the State’s Submittal The submittal describes the roles of ADEQ, MCAQD and PCAQCD in implementing the preconstruction permit

prog ram in the Maricopa NAA. In particular, the submittal explains that ADEQ has permitting jurisdiction for the following stationary source categories: smelting of metal ores, coal

- fired electric generating stations, petroleum refineries, Portland cement plan ts, and portable sources. ADEQ also has permitting jurisdiction over other major

### 12 sources in Pinal County, but has delegated implementation of the major source program to PCAQCD, which implements ADEQ’s major NSR rules. MCAQD has jurisdiction over other sou rces in Maricopa County. The Submittal also described various SIP revisions submitted by ADEQ to meet nonattainment NSR requirements.



### 3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal EPA recently finalized a limited approval and limited disapproval of various rules that comprise ADEQ’s NSR

program. 27 We expect that ADEQ will revise these rules in the near future.

With regard to MCAQD’s rules, we note that ADEQ had submitted MCAQD Rule 240

– Permits for New Major Sources and Major Modifications to Existing Major Sources to EPA on August 31, 1995, but withdrew it on April 25, 2014 in order to revise and resubmit it to EPA for SIP approval. ADEQ published a proposed notice of rulemaking for amendments to Rule 240 and other related rules on August 31, 2015

. 28

Given the expected submittal of revised ADEQ and MCAQD NSR rules in the near future

, we recommend deferring action on this element of the MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan at this time

. 

### f) Offset Requirements (section 182(a)(4))
1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements CAA Section 173 requires new and modified major sources in nonattainment areas to secure emissions reductions (i.e., "offsets") to compensate for a proposed emissions increase. For Marginal areas, section 182(a)(4) of the Act sets a general o ffset ratio of 1.1 to 1 for total VOC and NOx emission reductions as compared to VOC and NOx emission increases.



### 2) Summary of the State’s Submittal
The Submittal references ADEQ Rule R18

- 2

- 404(J) and Maricopa County Air Pollution Control Regulations, Rule 240, Section 306.3 as fulfilling the requirements of CAA section 182(a)(4)

. 

### 3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal Given the expected submittal of revised ADEQ and MCAQD NSR rules in the near future, we recommend deferring action on this element of the M AG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan at this time

. 

### g) Periodic Emissions Inventory (section 182(a)( 3 ) (A)
1) Statutory and Regulatory Requirements CAA section 182(a)(3)(A) and the SRR at 40 CFR 51.1115(b) require the State to submit 

### a periodic inventory by
the end of each 3

- year period after required submission of the base year inventory . Other than the inventory year and timing of submittal, the same requirements apply to periodic inventories as to the base year inventory, as described in section III(a)(1) above (see 40 CFR 51.1115(b), (c), (d), (e).



### 2) Summary of the State’s Submittal In the submittal, the MCAQD commits to prepare a 2014 periodic inventory to meet the requirements of section 182(a)(3)(A).

27 Final rule, Revisions to Air Plan; Arizona; Stationary Sources; New Source Review (pre

- publication version, signed June 29, 2015)

. 28 On July 31, 2015 the Arizona Secret ary of State published a notice of proposed rulemaking to amend MCAQD’s rules relating to NSR , including Rule 240. See Arizona Administrative Register (AAR) Vol. 21, Issue 31

, page 1302 ( July 31, 2015 ),
available at: http://apps.azsos.gov/public_services/r egister/2015/31/28_county_notices.pdf. It also announced a 30 day comment period that ended August 31, 2015.

### 13 3) EPA Evaluation of the State’s Submittal

The deadline for submi ttal of the base year inventory for the Maricopa NAA was July 20, 2014 (24 months after designation). Accordingly, the deadline for the first periodic inventory is July 20, 2017. EPA will evaluate the first periodic inventory following its submission.



### h) Tr ansportation Conformity (section 176 (c) )

The Submittal lists "Meet Transportation Conformity Requirements

- CAA Section 176(c)" as a marginal area requirement. We note that motor vehicle emission budgets, used in transportation conformity determinations, are not required for marginal areas because such areas are not required to submit a “control strategy implementation plan revision.” 29 However, as noted above, EPA has proposed to reclassify (or "bump up" ) the Maricopa NAA to Moderate nonattainment . I f the reclassification is finalized, MAG would be required to develop emission budgets as part of a Moderate a rea a ttainment demonstration. In the meantime, MAG may rely on the emission budgets for another NAAQS of the same pollutant (see 40 CFR 93.109(c)(2))

. EPA approved Maricopa NAA emission budgets for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS on September 17, 2014 (79 FR 55645). Accordingly, we are not taking further action on these budgets at this time.



## V. Recommendation

For the reasons described above, we recommend full approval of the MAG 2014 Eight

- Hour Ozone Plan with respect to the requirements of CAA section 182(a) (1), (2 ) (A) and (B) , and (3)(B) and deferral of action with respect to the requirements of CAA section s 176(c) 182(a)(2)(C) and (4).

29 See 40 CFR 93.101 (“Motor vehicle emissions budget is that portion of the total allowable emissions defined in the submitted or approved contr ol strategy implementation plan revision or maintenance plan for a certain date for the purpose of meeting reasonable further progress milestones or demonstrating attainment or maintenance of the NAAQS, for any criteria pollutant or its precursors, allocat ed to highway and transit vehicle use and emissions”; “ Control strategy implementation plan revision is the implementation plan which contains specific strategies for controlling the emissions of and reducing ambient levels of pollutants in order to satis fy CAA requirements for demonstrations of reasonable further progress and attainment (including implementation plan revisions submitted to satisfy CAA sections 172(c), 182(b)(1), 182(c)(2)(A), 182(c)(2)(B), 187(a)(7), 187(g), 189(a)(1)(B), 189(b)(1)(A), an d 189(d); sections 192(a) and 192(b), for nitrogen dioxide; and any other applicable CAA provision requiring a demonstration of reasonable further progress or attainment).”)