July 2017

Prepared for:

Appalachian Regional Commission  

 

 

Prepared by: 

Economic Development Research Group, Inc.

In Association with: 

WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff 

Economic Analysis of Completing the

Appalachian Development Highway System:  

Technical Report
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

.  i 

Acknowledgments 

This report was funded by and prepared for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC). It was

commissioned by the ARC to study the economic impacts, benefits, and costs of completing the

Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS).

The report was prepared by a team of researchers from Economic Development Research Group (EDR

Group), and WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff. Chandler Duncan (of EDR Group) was the project manager and

Glen Weisbrod was the project director. Major sections of the report were developed by Chandler

Duncan, Glen Weisbrod, Mark Sieber, and Derek Cutler of EDR Group. Additional staff who also

contributed to the analysis and report were: Lisa Petraglia, Kyle Schroeckenthaler, and Lesly Adkins‐Shellie

of EDR Group, and Rhett Fussell and Greg MacFarlane of WSP/PB.  

The research, analysis, and report development were guided by Scott Hercik, ARC Intermodal

Transportation Manager, and Daniel Hodge of Hodge Economic Consulting (research contract manager

for ARC). Other ARC staff contributing to this project included Kostas Skordas, Director of Planning and

Research; Keith Witt, Geographic Information Systems Analyst; Jason Wang, Senior Transportation

Specialist; and Thomas Smith, Senior Transportation Advisor. Daniel Hodge also contributed written

material for chapters 1 and 3.

The research team also acknowledges and thanks the many individuals and organizations who agreed to

be interviewed and provided critical input regarding the current and future impacts of ADHS corridor

completion. They include John Provo (Virginia Tech Blacksburg—Office of Economic Development), John

Michael Johnson (Kentucky Transportation Cabinet), Mike Smith (Western Carolina University), Cal Stiles

(Commissioner, Cherokee County, NC), Beth Jones (Southeast Tennessee Development District), Hoyt

Firestone (County Executive, Polk County, TN), David Moe (Maryland Coordinator of the North‐South

Appalachian Highway Project), Brandon Carson (Planning and Community Development, Southern

Pennsylvania Alleghenies RPO), Vince Greenland (Pennsylvania DOT), Mallie Combs (Hardy County WV

Rural Development Authority), Anne Jones (Tucker County WV Rural Development Authority), Patrick

Barker (Frederick County VA Economic Development Authority), Michael Shattuck (Birmingham Business

Alliance), Sam Addy (University of Alabama, Center for Business and Economic Research), and Don

Mitchell (Blount County Economic Development Commission).

   
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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Table of Contents 

Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................ i

Table of Contents................................................................................................................................. ii

List of Tables....................................................................................................................................... iv

List of Figures....................................................................................................................................... v

Overview and Findings......................................................................................................................... 1

Background ...................................................................................................................................... 1

Key Findings: Impact to Date ........................................................................................................... 3

Key Findings: Future System Completion ........................................................................................ 4

1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 8

Study Objectives ................................................................................................................. 8

ADHS Completion Challenges............................................................................................. 8

Study Scope and Approach................................................................................................. 9

ADHS Completion–Plans and Possible Alternative Highway Improvements.................... 10

2 Analysis Process:  Methods and Models................................................................................. 12

Modeling Travel Demand and Transportation System Performance Impacts ................. 12

Factors for Valuation of Transportation Benefits............................................................. 19

Use of Interviews and Local Information Sources............................................................ 20

Modeling Regional Economic Development Impacts....................................................... 21

Benefit‐Cost Analysis ........................................................................................................ 23

3 Backcasting—Effects of ADHS to Date (1965‒2015) ............................................................... 25

ADHS System Construction to Date .................................................................................. 25

Transportation System Performance................................................................................ 29

Valuation of Transportation Benefits ............................................................................... 37

Economic Development Impacts...................................................................................... 39

Case Studies: ADHS Connectivity to Inland Logistics Facilities and Global Trade............. 45

4 Forecasting—Effects of ADHS System Completion (2016‒2045) ............................................. 47

ADHS Corridors Remaining to be Completed ................................................................... 47

Transportation System Performance................................................................................ 48

Valuation of Transportation Benefits ............................................................................... 54

Economic Development Impacts...................................................................................... 56

Benefit‐Cost Analysis ........................................................................................................ 59

Accelerating ADHS Completion......................................................................................... 63
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5 Corridor Level Analyses ......................................................................................................... 65

Overview and Methodology ............................................................................................. 65

Corridor H—West Virginia and Virginia ............................................................................ 67

Corridor K—Tennessee and North Carolina ..................................................................... 72

Corridor N—Pennsylvania and Maryland ......................................................................... 77

Corridor Q—Virginia and Kentucky................................................................................... 81

Corridor X1—Alabama ...................................................................................................... 86

Corridor Analysis Findings................................................................................................. 90

6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 91

Effectiveness of ADHS Investment to Date....................................................................... 91

System‐wide Completion Effects...................................................................................... 91

Bottom Line: Economic Impacts, Benefits and Costs of ADHS ......................................... 92

Appendix: Time Series Information .................................................................................................... 93

   
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List of Tables 

Table 1:  Annual Economic Impacts of ADHS Completion in 2045 ............................................................... 5

Table 2:  Benefit‐Cost Analysis for ADHS Completion (present value of future cost and benefit streams). 6

Table 3:  Monetary Values for Transportation Performance Benefits ....................................................... 20

Table 4:  ADHS Investment and Miles Added Over Historic Development Periods ................................... 26

Table 5:  ADHS Cumulative Lane Miles Added vs. Overall Highway Lane Miles Added.............................. 27

Table 6:  ADHS Investment in Distressed Counties..................................................................................... 28

Table 7:  Travel Time and Reliability Savings in 2015, from Completed Projects....................................... 29

Table 8:  Travel Time and Reliability Savings from Completed Projects, by Location of Trip Ends............ 30

Table 9:  Distribution of Travel Efficiency Benefits by County, as of 2015 ................................................. 31

Table 10:  Average Workforce Access Gains Attributable to ADHS Improvements................................... 33

Table 11:  Increases Same‐Day Market Access Due to ADHS Investments ................................................ 36

Table 12:  Value of Travel Efficiency Savings from Completed Projects as of 2015 ($ millions/yr.)........... 38

Table 13:  Impact of ADHS Projects on the Economy of Appalachia and Appalachian States.................... 40

Table 14:  Employment and GRP Impacts of ADHS by Industry as of 2015................................................ 43

Table 15:  Employment Growth in Appalachian Counties from 1978 to 2015, by Strata of ADHS Benefit 44

Table 16:  Future Completion of the ADHS, With Time Phasing Assumed for this Study........................... 47

Table 17:  Forecast Travel Time & Reliability Savings from Phased Completion of ADHS by 2045............ 49

Table 18:  Forecast Travel Time & Reliability Savings from ADHS Completion, by Location of Trip Ends.. 51

Table 19:  Projected Annual Travel Benefit from ADHS Completion (in millions of 2015 dollars) ............. 55

Table 20:  Annual Economic Impacts of ADHS Completion (in $ millions of 2015 Dollars)........................ 56

Table 21:  Projected 2045 Employment and GRP Impact, by Industry....................................................... 58

Table 22:  Estimated Corridor Completion Under Accelerated and Non‐Accelerated Schedules.............. 60

Table 23:  ADHS Corridor Construction Project Outlays by Year Under 2045 and Accelerated Scenarios. 61

Table 24:  Benefit‐Cost Analysis of ADHS Completion by 2045 (Present Value)* ...................................... 62

Table 25:  Comparative Benefits of 2035 Completion vs. 2045 Completion (Undiscounted $M).............. 63

Table 26: Economic Impacts of Completing ADHS...................................................................................... 64

Table 27:  Corridor H Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability ............ 69

Table 28:  Corridor H Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion) ..................................... 70

Table 29:  Corridor K Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability............. 74

Table 30:  Corridor K Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion)...................................... 75

Table 31:  Corridor N Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability ............ 79

Table 32:  Corridor N Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion)..................................... 80

Table 33:  Corridor Q Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability ............ 83

Table 34:  Corridor Q Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion)..................................... 84

Table 35:  Corridor X1 Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability........... 88

Table 36:  Corridor X1 Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion).................................... 89

Table 37:  Cost and Benefit Streams for ADHS Completion by 2045 at Comparative Discount Rates....... 93

Table 38:  Cost & Benefit Streams for 2035 Acceleration and 2045 Completion Scenarios ...................... 94
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List of Figures 

Figure 1:  Appalachian Development Highway System, as of September 30, 2016. .................................... 1

Figure 2:  Impact of ADHS Completion to Date on the Economy of Appalachian States ............................. 4

Figure 3:  Transportation Benefits of Accelerated 2035 Completion versus 2045 Completion ................... 7

Figure 4: Models and Data Used to Demonstrate Effects of ADHS ............................................................ 14

Figure 5:  Traffic Analysis Zones relative to Appalachian Development Highway System ......................... 15

Figure 6:  Components of Economic Impact Process.................................................................................. 21

Figure 7:  Economic Impact Modeling Approach........................................................................................ 22

Figure 8:  ADHS Corridor Segments and Completion Status by Time Period ............................................. 26

Figure 9:  Emphasis of ADHS Segments in Non‐Metro and Distressed Areas............................................. 27

Figure 10:  ADHS Investments 1965‐2015:  Connecting Distressed Counties with Metro Areas............... 28

Figure 11:  Annual Travel Efficiency Benefits in 2015 from Past ADHS Improvements.............................. 31

Figure 12:  Increases in Accessible Workforce in 2015 from Past ADHS Improvements............................ 32

Figure 13:  Relative Size of Same‐Day Market Accessible from Appalachian Counties as of 1965 ............ 34

Figure 14:  Increase in Same‐Day Delivery Market in 2015 from Past ADHS Improvements..................... 35

Figure 15:  Locations of Intermodal Terminals Affected by ADHS Access.................................................. 37

Figure 16:  Annual Travel Efficiency Benefits from ADHS, Over Time (millions of 2015 dollars) ............... 38

Figure 17:  Impact of ADHS Completion to Date on the Economy of Appalachian States ......................... 41

Figure 18:  Causal Factors Driving Economic Growth (GRP) Impacts of ADHS Completion to Date........... 42

Figure 19:  Top Economic Sectors in Terms of GRP Income Growth Due to ADHS .................................... 44

Figure 20:  Port of Huntsville International Intermodal Center.................................................................. 45

Figure 21:  Greer Inland Port ...................................................................................................................... 46

Figure 22:  Segments of the ADHS Remaining to be Completed (as of September 30, 2016) ................... 48

Figure 23:  Distribution of Travel Efficiency Benefits for Completing ADHS (2045) ................................... 51

Figure 24:  Increases in Accessible Workforce in 2045 Attributable to ADHS Completion ........................ 52

Figure 25:  Increase in Same‐Day Market Access Attributable to ADHS Completion in 2045.................... 54

Figure 26:  Sources of Benefit Associated with ADHS Completion (as of 2045)......................................... 55

Figure 27:  Future Impacts of ADHS Completion on the Economy of the 13 Appalachian States.............. 57

Figure 28:  Causal Factors Driving Economic Growth (GRP) Impacts of ADHS Completion ....................... 57

Figure 29:  Top Economic Sectors Impacted Due to ADHS Completion (in Millions of Dollars of GRP)..... 59

Figure 30:  Development of Benefits 2035 Completion vs. 2045 Completion............................................ 64

Figure 31:  Map of Corridor H Area............................................................................................................. 68

Figure 32:  Length of Corridor H by Status (Authorized) ............................................................................ 68

Figure 33:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor H Completion (7 percent discount rate).................................. 70

Figure 34:  Corridor H: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion) . 71

Figure 35:  Summary of Corridor H Completion Impacts............................................................................ 71

Figure 36:  Map of Corridor K Area ............................................................................................................. 72

Figure 37:  Length of Corridor K in North Carolina and Tennessee by Status (Authorized) ....................... 73

Figure 38:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor K Completion (7 percent discount rate) .................................. 75

Figure 39:  Corridor K: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion).. 76

Figure 40:  Overview of Corridor K Completion Impacts............................................................................ 76

Figure 41:  Map of Corridor N Area............................................................................................................. 77

Figure 42:  Length of Corridor N by Status (Authorized) ............................................................................ 78

Figure 43:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor N Completion (7 percent discount rate).................................. 79

Figure 44:  Corridor N: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion). 80
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Figure 45:  Summary of Corridor N Completion Impacts............................................................................ 80

Figure 46:  Map of Corridor Q Area ............................................................................................................ 81

Figure 47:  Length of Corridor Q by Status (Authorized) ............................................................................ 82

Figure 48:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor Q Completion (7 percent discount rate).................................. 84

Figure 49:  Corridor Q: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion). 85

Figure 50:  Summary of Corridor Q Impacts Completion............................................................................ 85

Figure 51:  Map of Corridor X1 Area ........................................................................................................... 86

Figure 52:  Length of Corridor X1 by Status (Authorized)........................................................................... 87

Figure 53:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor X1 Completion (7 percent discount rate) ................................ 88

Figure 54:  Corridor X1: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion) 89

Figure 55:  Summary of Corridor X1 Completion Impacts.......................................................................... 90
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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Overview and Findings 

Background 

This economic study was sponsored by the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) to estimate the

economic impacts, benefits, and costs of completing the Appalachian Development Highway System

(ADHS). The ADHS was authorized by Congress with the purpose of stimulating economic development by

reducing isolation and improving access for an economically depressed region that had been largely left

unserved by the interstate highway system. A 3,662‐mile system, the ADHS is composed of 32 corridors

located in 13 Appalachian states with 3,090 eligible miles (see Figure 1). At the end of FY 2016, a total of

2794.7 miles, or 90.4 percent of the authorized network, were either complete or open to traffic, or under

construction. ADHS completion will link the whole system into an integrated transportation network

connecting Appalachia to both domestic and global markets.    The analysis in this report is based on

economic data and forecasts from 2015, the most recent complete year for which data were available as

the report was being developed.

Figure 1:  Appalachian Development Highway System, as of September 30, 2016.

Source:  Appalachian Regional Commission, 2016.
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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The purposes of this study are to:

(1) Describe the effects that historical completion of the ADHS to date has had (and continues to

have) on connecting Appalachian people and businesses to economic markets, and consequently

the impacts it has had on improving the Region’s economy.

(2) Assess the additional future improvements in travel performance, trade, and economic

development that can be expected from completion of the remaining elements of the ADHS.

(3) Calculate the relative benefits and costs of completing the ADHS system, evaluate how those

benefits are likely to be experienced on particular corridors, and estimate how accelerating ADHS

completion would generate larger transportation benefits and economic impacts much sooner.

This study both extends and improves upon prior studies of the economic benefits and impacts of ADHS

completion. Before this study, the most recent extensive economic analysis of the ADHS was a June 2008

report, which estimated the future economic and travel efficiency returns to ADHS investments. Key

enhancements in the current study include:

(1) Integration of national data sources, such as Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) and Highway

Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), with statewide transportation performance modeling

and data systems for each Appalachian state;

(2) New quantitative analysis of the transportation and economic impacts of ADHS completion to

date (1965 to 2015);

(3) Estimates of how accelerating ADHS completion to 2035 (compared to 2045) would change the

economic impacts and benefits for Appalachia; and

(4) Return on investment (ROI) analysis of five major ADHS corridors that have sections remaining to

be built.

Results of this study include a full range of transportation performance and economic development

indicators. These are defined and organized as follows:

 Transportation System Performance Benefits: Including travel‐time savings, route diversion and

resulting reduced mileages, and increased ranges of workforce and business accessibility;

 Valuation of Economic Benefits: Including the dollar value of travel time, reliability, operating

costs, logistical costs, environmental and safety costs, as well as enhanced productivity;

 Total Economic Impacts: Including full economic development impacts on the economy of the

Appalachian Region in terms of employment by industry, gross regional product, and personal

income; and

 Benefit‐Cost Analysis: Benefit‐cost ratios to measure expected return on investment.

Key findings pertain to the historic impact of ADHS completion to date, anticipated benefits of system

completion, wider economic impacts of system completion, benefit‐cost analysis of system completion,

and the potential near‐term benefits and impacts of accelerated completion.
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Key Findings: Impact to Date 

A historical analysis of the economic impact of the ADHS from 1965 to 2015 finds that:

 Over a period of 50 years, over 90 percent of the ADHS has been completed, including 5,119

lane‐miles of highway construction leading to the opening of 2,794.7 miles of completed

highways on the ADHS network. This includes construction of new highway segments and

expansion of existing highway segments. A majority of the highway improvements

completed to date have been in economically distressed, rural counties.  

 As a result of the ADHS investment to date, areas served by the ADHS now experience

transportation system benefits in terms of faster and more reliable travel times, savings in

vehicle operating and logistics costs, better safety, and substantially better access to labor

and business delivery markets. For instance, travelers today experience 360 million hours

per year of travel time savings compared to what would have been the case without these

highway system improvements. Counties with ADHS investments also have nearly twice the

improvement in workforce access than other parts of the Appalachian states.

 In 2015 the ADHS enabled approximately $10.7 billion in annual transportation costsavings

and productivity gains.  These gains extend beyond the Appalachian states, benefiting the

entire US Economy.   Twenty percent of car vehicle hours saved and 31 percent of freight

truck vehicle hours saved accrue to trips with at least one end located outside of the 13

Appalachian states. This indicates that the ADHS plays a particularly important role serving

longer‐distance goods movement and trade, connecting the Region to destinations

throughout the U.S.

 The transportation changes have affected almost all sectors of the economy, leading to

increased business productivity and competitiveness. Those counties with the greatest

transportation cost savings and access benefits have also shown solid employment growth.

For example, the Appalachian counties most directly served by ADHS investments have

grown 20 percent more than the Appalachian states as a whole from 1965 to 2015.  

 The accessibility and transportation cost savings enabled by ADHS system completion to

date can be directly linked to the creation of over 168,000 added jobs and over $11 billion

per year in GRP in the Appalachian states as of 2015 (see Figure 2). The cumulative effect

of added GRP growth continuing year after year for over 50 years (from 1965 to 2015) adds

up to $388 billion in constant (2015) dollars.

 The impact of ADHS completion on regional GRP and employment has continued to grow in

every period of ADHS development (see Figure 2). While the largest share of economic

impact is attributable to a large block of highway system improvements made between

1965 and 1983, there is still significant ongoing growth in benefits and economic impacts

from ADHS system investment, which can be expected to grow as the system is completed

in the first part of the 21st century.
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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Figure 2:  Impact of ADHS Completion to Date on the Economy of Appalachian States

Note: All economic values are in millions of constant 2015 dollars

Sources:  ARC (for lane‐miles), travel and economic model analyses by EDR Group and WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff as

reported in chapter 3 of the full report (for economic impact measures).

Key Findings: Future System Completion 

Transportation Benefits of ADHS Completion

The analysis of economic impacts associated with future ADHS completion finds that:

 As of FY 2015, 295.3 miles of the authorized ADHS network remains to be completed,

though many of these remaining road segments have not yet been completed because they

have difficult topography (which makes them more expensive to complete) and/or

significant environmental challenges (which makes design and approval more difficult to

achieve). Altogether, the work to be completed to realize the ADHS vision will occur on 17

corridors throughout Appalachia.  

 Nevertheless, the benefits of completing the ADHS network are substantial, summing to

over $2.2 billion in annual transportation costsavings and productivity gains by 2045.  These

benefitsfrom completion of a network connecting Appalachian with broader labor markets,

truck delivery markets, inland distribution and export gateways. These market access and

intermodal connectivity benefits are measurable. For instance, completion of the ADHS is

calculated to bring a 30 percent increase in population market accessfor businesseslocated

along the affected corridors.  
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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 Completion of the ADHS network will also bring significant travel efficiencies for car and

truck movements to, from and within the Region. Most notably, network characteristics

consistent with models used by Departments of Transportation in the Appalachian States

demonstrate how completion of the system by 2045 will bring faster travel times and

reduced delays due to better road geometrics(including curves and passing lanes), enabling

a total of 114 million vehicle‐hours of time saved per year.  

 The benefits of ADHS completion include not only benefits to businesses dependent on the

system for transportation, but also significant benefits to the quality of life for those living,

working and visiting the Region.  These include savings in personal travel time by residents,

and improvements in safety and the environment.

Economic Impacts of System Completion

 The benefits described above will have the wider impact of enabling significant

improvements in the economic competitiveness of the Region, through savings in business

costs associated with business vehicle operations, worker time and logistics, as well as

enhanced productivity due to larger market access. The competitivenessimprovements due

to ADHS completion will support more inward investment to the Region, more exports and

ultimately more business growth. These economic impacts will occur most dominantly

within Appalachian counties, with further growth occurring in other parts of the 13

Appalachian states.  

 Application of an economic simulation and forecasting model shows the consequence of

greater economic competitiveness on regional economic growth. The results are

summarized in Table 2. The estimated economic impact on the 13 Appalachian states is

expected to be in the magnitude of over $4.2 billion of additional GRP each year,supporting

roughly 46,000 additional jobs. Around 77 percent of these impacts will occur within

Appalachian counties. Table 1 demonstrates how the businesssales, value added, and wage

income impacts develop from 2015 to 2045.

Table 1:  Annual Economic Impacts of ADHS Completion in 2045

Annual Economic Impact of Future ADHS Completion

Business Output ($M Sales) $8,703

Value Added ($M GRP) $4,236

Wage Income ($M Earned) $2,673

Employment (Jobs) 46,849

Source: Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System, 2017–chapter 4.

*Note: All values are in constant 2015 dollars

Benefit‐Cost Analysis

Table 2 shows the benefits and costs of ADHS completion by 2045. Costs and benefits are discounted at 7

percent and include all costs and benefits accruing in the United States. The table demonstratesthat ADHS

completion is expected to generate societal benefits more than three and a half timesits cost.  Depending

on the discount rate – the benefit/cost ratio could be even greater.  Furthermore, the benefits shown in

Table 2 include all benefits to the United States economy.    If benefits are understood from a strictly
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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regional perspective (counting only benefits accruing to Appalachian states) the benefits would still be

over 2.7 times greater than the costs.

More than half of the benefits are attributable to travel time and reliability savings, with other significant

benefits accruing based on supply chain benefits to truck traffic (enabling trucks to be more responsive to

the needs of shippers up and down supply chains), savings in mileage and associated fuel and vehicle

operating costs, and to a lesser degree safety and environmental costs as well as productivity gains from

enhanced market access.   

Table 2:  Benefit‐Cost Analysis for ADHS Completion (present value of future cost and benefit streams)

Elements of Benefit and Cost

Present value ($ millions) with

7% discount rate

Vehicle Operating Cost Savings $1,659

Travel Time Saved $8,622

Reliability Time Saved $2,526

Safety Benefit   $950

Environmental and Emissions Benefit $358

Logistics and Supply Chain Savings $1,786

Market Access (Productivity Gain)   $419

Present Value of Total Benefits   $16,320

Present Value of Total Costs $4,471

Benefit‐Cost Ratio 3.65

Source:  Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System, 2017‒chapter 4

*Note: All values are net present values of cost or benefit streams covering the period of 2016‒2075, using the

specified 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate, and presented in terms of their 2015 value (millions of dollars)

The Case for Accelerated Completion of ADHS

There are significant challenges and uncertainties regarding both the availability of funds for ADHS

completion and as well as time required to complete the stakeholder discussion and approval processes

that are needed to achieve desirable plans and designs. Of course, delays in ADHS completion also lead

to delays in achieving regional benefits. To understand the consequences of delaying vs. accelerating

system completion, the study team conducted a comparison of benefits and costs associated with a 2045

completion date versus an accelerated 2035 completion date.

Figure 3 illustrates the comparative rate at which benefits will accrue with 2035 completion compared to

2045 completion. This analysis demonstrates that if the completion of ADHS can be accelerated to occur

by 2035, the Region can experience nearly $8 Billion in additional cumulative undiscounted transportation

benefits by that year in comparison to a 2045 completion scenario. It is expected that by 2035 the Region

could gain over 11,000 more jobs as a result of accelerating completion of ADHS, as well as over $1 billion

more in GRP and more than $2 billion in additional annual business sales (output).  
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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Figure 3:  Transportation Benefits of Accelerated 2035 Completion versus 2045 Completion

Source:  See chapter 4.

Note: All benefits reported in millions of constant 2015 dollars.

Conclusions

The ADHS investments to date have provided 5,117 additional lane‐miles of highway, achieving $10.7

billion in annual benefits—in terms of transportation system performance, accessimprovement (isolation

reduction), and resulting economic growth on the order of 168,000 jobs and $11.1 billion in annual GRP.

Completion of the system will also have substantial benefits, in terms of achieving network connectivity

to economic markets and intermodal facilities, and enabling trade and regional economic growth to the

effect of over 46,000 additional jobs and over $4 billion in additional GRP growth.  Based on current cost

estimates, the achievement of ADHS system completion will bring a strong ROI (return on investment) for

Appalachia as well as the broader set of Appalachian states and the nation realizing $3.65 of benefit for

every dollar spent on the system. These broader impacts are enabled by two factors:  the role of ADHS

links in facilitating long distance trips and trade, and by the economic (supplier‐buyer) links tying

Appalachia to outside areas. An examination of five individual corridors that are not yet completed also

indicates a positive ROI for each of them. While costs and timing are significant uncertainties, the analysis

shows that efforts to accelerate ADHS completion can work to enhance the net benefits.

 ‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045

Cumulative Benefits (2015 ‐ 2035)

2045 Completion 2035 Completion
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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1. Introduction 

Study Objectives 

The Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS) is a federally designated 3,090‐mile network of

modern highways, comprising 32 highway corridors spread across 13 states. It is designed to link isolated

and economically distressed areas of Appalachia to the Interstate Highway System and major economic

markets. Development of this network was originally authorized by a broad bipartisan majority of

Congress through the Appalachian Regional Development Act of 1965. Over the subsequent 50 years

(1965‐2015), approximately 90 percent of the designated system mileage has been constructed with a

combination of federal and state funding. Today, about ten percent remains to be completed by the

states.

This report examines the impacts of the ADHS on economic growth and transportation connectivity in

Appalachia—including both how ADHS development to date has affected jobs and income in Appalachia,

and the expected future benefits, costs, and economic growth impacts of completing remaining portions

of the ADHS. Its purpose is to provide an updated assessment of the effects of completing the ADHS,

including implications for the Appalachian Region, the broader 13 Appalachian states, and the United

States overall.

The study, which draws on state‐of‐the‐art economic and transportation analysis models as well as local

business interviews, addresses the following questions:

 To what extent have the completed portions of the ADHS contributed to economic gains

(increases in jobs and income) in Appalachia?

 What are the expected economic growth impacts, and transportation system benefits of

completing the remaining sections of the ADHS?

 What are the costs and benefits of completing the entire ADHS as well as a set of major

ADHS corridors, and what kind of economic gains would be realized if the system were

completed more quickly?  

ADHS Completion Challenges 

An early goal of the ADHS was to create better transportation access to, from, and within Appalachia, to

help the Region’s economy attract investment, diversify its industry mix beyond the extractive, resource‐

based economy, and alleviate its persistent concentration of poverty. This required the development of

new access routes that could:  (a) reduce costs of travel and business operations in the Region, (b) expand

job and labor market opportunities, (c) expand access to broader health, education, and business delivery

markets, and (d) expand freight connectivity to airports, ports, and intermodal terminals.

While much of the ADHS system has been completed, there are clear challenges for completion of the

remaining links in the network. The breadth of the Region and its rugged, mountainous terrain has meant

that highway development in Appalachia is difficult, costly, and accompanied by design and
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environmental challenges. At the same time, the extent of long‐term poverty in this region and the

implications of improved accessibility enabled by ADHS corridors are also substantial.  Consequently, both

the potential costs and benefits for completion of the ADHS system are meaningful for the Appalachian

Region and for the U.S. as a whole.

The evolution of the ADHS is now at a critical juncture, as the system is nearing completion yet some key

corridor elements remain to be finished. While construction of ADHS corridors can be funded with 100

percent Federal funds (no state match required), there no longer is a dedicated stream of funding

allocated to states for the ADHS.1 There is now an increasing need to demonstrate where and how there

is benefit to be gained from funding and constructing the remaining segments. This calls for a new type

of analysis that can more directly show the economic importance of completing the ADHS in terms of

impacts of individual corridors, as well as the broader regional and national economic stakes and their

distribution among locations and among elements of the economy.

Study Scope and Approach 

The Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) has sponsored several past research studies to assess the

economic impacts of the ADHS program, and outside parties have conducted additional studies of this

topic. These studies are summarized in a synthesis report on past research completed in 2016.2 This

current study was commissioned by ARC’s Planning and Research Division to accomplish three further

goals:   

(1) Quantify the cumulative transportation and economic effects of ADHS investments over the 1965‐

2015 period;

(2) Provide an updated analysis of the benefits, costs, and economic impacts associated with future

completion of all remaining segments of the ADHS; and  

(3) Examine the transportation benefits, economic opportunities, and the return on investment

associated with completion of five of the largest remaining ADHS corridors.

To address these three goals, the research team completed a two‐step process.  

 First, impacts on travel conditions were analyzed using detailed travel and highway

network models to represent traffic flows, speeds, congestion, reliability, and

connectivity conditions. The models were configured to represent the highway system

performance and conditions in three ways:  

o Today (2015),  

o As they existed in earlier years without ADHS highway segments, and  

o As they would exist in the future if remaining ADHS segments were completed.  

                                                            

1 For example, this means that ADHS projects now compete with the full-set of state transportation priorities such as 

congestion relief in large urban areas, or rebuilding structurally deficient bridges. 

2 Appalachian Development Highway System Economic Analysis Study: Synthesis of Findings to Date, Appalachian 

Regional Council, 2016. See https://www.arc.gov/research/researchreportdetails.asp?REPORT_ID=128. 
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 Second, multi‐regional economic forecasting and simulation models were applied to

assess how the transportation system conditions under those three situations affected

the economy. Information about changes in travel efficiency fed both a benefit‐cost

analysis of the efficiency of investment, and an economic impact study that examined

broader effects on competitiveness, as well as job and income generation among

industries and locations. The economic analysis was supplemented by interviews with

corridor‐specific business and economic development representatives to document

their expectations for their region.

The analysis of past impacts is referred to as “backcasting,” while the analysis of expected future impacts

is referred to as “forecasting.” Forecasting studies normally start with a baseline forecast and then assess

what would be the future effects of a hypothetical scenario in which proposed new projects are added.

Backcasting studies, in contrast, start with a history in which (ADHS) investments have already occurred,

and assess what have been the past effects in comparison to a hypothetical scenario if those projects had

not occurred. This study employs the same modeling and analysis approach to provide full consistency in

assessing both historical and expected future effects.

ADHS Completion–Plans and Possible Alternative 

Highway Improvements 

The ADHS was designated in the 1960s but has been altered in various ways over time to adjust exact

highway routing, modify the highway classification, or sometimes even add new corridors. In this study,

the research team used the best available information to define the completion of ADHS corridors and

the full system, largely relying on the September 2013 ADHS Completion Plan Report and the 2015 ADHS

Status Report.3 These reports outline the timing (by year) that Appalachian states expect to finish each

corridor and the estimated cost for the completion work. There is wide variation in the timing of

completion by corridor and by state. In fact, many of the corridors not yet completed are under‐

construction today with new investment and segment completion expected each year. For example,

Kentucky has two corridors that it is working to finish (Q and F) with completion dates anticipated in 2019

and 2024.

Other highway corridor projects have completion datesfurther out, extending beyond 2040. For example,

Corridor H in West Virginia is estimated to finish in 2042 even as the state makes steady progress on a

continuous basis to finish its highway work. Other large corridor projects are more difficult to forecast

with certainty given:  a) the removal of dedicated funding for ADHS in the last Federal transportation bill;

b) environmental challenges and difficult terrain to complete certain segments; and c) limited state DOT

funding and competition for and prioritization with other projects.  

In reality, some projects may vary from the analysis conducted in this study in terms of timing, highway

routing, highway classification or other characteristics. From working with state DOTs, ARC is aware that

some state DOTs are already considering modificationsto ADHS corridor completion. Lacking more formal

decisions about these roadways, and given the possibility of increased levels of infrastructure investment

                                                            

3 See: https://www.arc.gov/images/programs/transp/ADHSCompletionPlanReport-9-2013.pdf ; 

https://www.arc.gov/images/programs/transp/ADHSFY2015StatusReport.pdf. 
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in the future, this research deliberately analyzed ADHS corridor completion as originally envisioned and

stated in the most recent completion plan and status report. This research thus represents the best

estimates and projections available of the economic impacts, benefits, and costs of ADHS corridor and

system completion as of February 2017.

In effect, the results of this study demonstrate in economic terms what is at stake in decisions regarding

both the implementation and timing of ADHS completion.  
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2 Analysis Process: Methods and 

Models 

This section describes the overall analysis approach used in the study. It describes how a set of state‐of‐

the‐art transportation and economic analysis models were combined and validated to assess the impacts

and benefits of completing the ADHS in a way that is consistent with local, state and federal highway

statistics measuring the ADHS travel market and its performance. Overall, the modeling is comprised of

three major elements:

 The first is the travel demand and transportation system performance element,

demonstrating how the transportation system is expected to perform as a result of ADHS

completion (or how it performs now as a result of completion to date).  

 The second element applies valuation factors to generate monetary benefits and utilizes

economic impact modeling to demonstrate how the transportation performance

improvements enable firms to produce more output, create more jobs and improve the

overall economic performance of the Region.  

 The final element compares the costs and benefits of ADHS completion. In order to

enhance the understanding of the findings and context of the analytical modeling, the

research team conducted interviews with corridor‐level stakeholders about the effects

anticipated with ADHS completion.

Modeling Travel Demand and Transportation 

System Performance Impacts 

As a system comprised of new facilities serving highly dispersed traffic markets which are both regional

and national in nature, the ADHS is fundamentally unlike other projects for which departments of

transportation (DOTs) or metropolitan planning organizations(MPOs) typically forecasttraffic. The market

for the yet‐to‐be‐completed ADHS cannot be observed in typical traffic flow maps of the existing facilities

because:  

(1) There are no existing facilities in place with comparable characteristics,  

(2) A widely disbursed complex of local, municipal and lower classified state facilities are

currently carrying traffic that may comprise a future market for ADHS,  

(3) The ADHS may re‐route national traffic not currently traveling into, out of or through

Appalachian counties, and  

(4) By attracting new business to Appalachia, ADHS may save travel  hours and mileage by

shortening trips that currently do not even have ends in Appalachia.  

For all of these reasons, the Appalachian travel market is not expected to be identified through a simple

process of looking at existing flow maps, or applying typicalstate models validated for higher volume state
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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facilities, or looking only at diversion of national truck traffic. Instead, the research team applied an all‐

sources approach of combining all known state and federal data sources to characterize the potential

future travel market for ADHS, and the potentialsources ofsavingsfrom economic patternsresulting from

system completion.

The “all sources” approach means that no single data source or model is seen as definitive with regard to

the ADHS travel market and its performance; instead multiple sources of measuring ADHS traffic and

performance are considered and validated against each other and the most consistent and defensible

findings were used for economic analysis.

Key sources of information used in developing the transportation performance estimates included:

(1) Validated Statewide Travel Demand Models from each of 13 Appalachian states, including data

on passenger and truck trips, and origin‐destination (O‐D) patterns.

(2) FHWA’s Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data files from the 13 Appalachian

states, and their associated reporting of vehicle miles of travel by cars and trucks, by functional

highway system.

(3) Federal Highway Statistics published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)

documenting lane miles constructed and vehicle miles of travel by cars and trucksin all fifty states

from 1965 to 2015.

(4) FHWA highway network data including the National Highway Planning Network (NHPN) and

Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) networks.

The following is a high‐level description of how these sources are used in assessing the size of the ADHS

travel market. Figure 4 illustrates how the all‐sources approach combines the best available state and

federal data sources to estimate and validate the size and performance of the travel markets served by

the ADHS.
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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Figure 4: Models and Data Used to Demonstrate Effects of ADHS

Source:  EDR Group.

Statewide Travel Demand Models

A primary source of information on ADHS travel demand and transportation system performance is the

travel demand models developed by the thirteen states with ADHS facilities. Each of the states in the

Region has(to some degree) calibrated and used four‐step travel demand modelsfor itsinternal planning.

These models have different degrees of accuracy relative to known traffic counts, and varying degrees of

detail in representing different classifications of roadways. However, the state models serve as an

important resource because they include:

(1) Detailed sub‐county Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level estimates of passenger car and truck traffic

produced and attracted to different areas in states served by the ADHS.

(2) A validated distribution of origin‐destination (OD) patterns for trips exchanged between these

zones.

(3) A validated and “assignable” highway network that can be used for determining the likely routing

of traffic between different origins and destinations served by the ADHS in ways that explicitly

account for factors expected to be influenced by ADHS completion such as:

a. Design Speed,

b. Terrain,

c. Mileage of linear roadway (including straight or crooked/ ‘winding’ nature of routes),

d. Design Capacity, and

e. Ability to carry commercial trucks.
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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The Origin‐Destination Matrices from these 13 models are combined into an overall regional OD matrix

for the combined 13‐state Region to provide an initial accounting of trips originating or terminating within

the thirteen states served by the ADHS. Furthermore, the networks of these 13 state models are also

combined into an overall assignable network to demonstrate likely routing for any travel into, out of, and

through these states.

The statewide models alone, however, do not account forsome significant other travel patterns and traffic

sources served by the ADHS, including: (a) assignment of traffic on minor arterials, collectors, and local

facilities; and (b) national long‐distance truck and passenger traffic. For these elements of ADHS demand,

state models are supplemented with other available data sources from the Federal Highway

Administration including the NHPN (National Highway Planning Network) and FAF (Freight Analysis

Framework), as well as data from state DOT sources. These supplementary sources make it possible to

more completely estimate and more fully validate the size and performance of the travel markets served

by the ADHS. Figure 5 shows the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) resulting from this process, allowing loading

of state and national traffic to the ADHS. There are 460 TAZs representing the 420 Appalachian counties.

In other words, most of the TAZs are counties, though some counties have been split into two TAZs.

Figure 5:  Traffic Analysis Zones relative to Appalachian Development Highway System

Source:  EDR Group.
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Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) and Federal

Highway Statistics

Because statewide models are typically validated to forecast traffic on major state facilities (at the

principal arterial level and above), minor arterials, collectors and municipal or rural county facilities are

not consistently represented in these models. For example, many of the statewide models load traffic

onto state highways from “centroids” that represent areas as large as a quarter or a third of an entire

county, without capturing the true distances or volumes of the local facilities that carry traffic to higher

level roadways. While the state models demonstrate a level of trips generated in rural areas served by

minor arterials and local roads, and give an indication of demand in these areas, they do not accurately

reflect the true mileage and travel speeds on these lower classified systems. This is problematic for

understanding the role of the ADHS because one of the key rationales for ADHS completion is its ability to

replace slow and circuitous local routes with more direct and faster principal arterials or above.  

For example, assume that a trip on a rural county roadway entails driving 50 miles at an average speed of

40 miles per hour to connect an origin and a destination 40 miles apart (as a straight line distance),

effectively involving an hour and 15 minutes of travel time. Replacing this route with an ADHS corridor

may enable the same trip to occur by driving 45 miles at a speed of 60 miles per hour, effectively involving

only 45 minutes of travel time (reducing the vehicle hours of travel by 40 percent). Hence, it is important

to account for (1) the likely overall vehicle miles of travel (VMT) currently carried on minor arterials and

below, (2) typicalspeeds on these facilities, and (3) how these compare to the speed and design standards

of proposed ADHS facilities when considering ADHS effects on these trips.

These speed and travel time effects are addressed by applying data on VMT, speeds, and car/truck

percentages (observed in HPMS and Federal Highway Statistics) to trips generated in counties served by

the ADHS. This brings the analysis to reasonable base‐case estimates of historic and no‐build future travel

times and costsfor traffic using minor arterials, collectors, and municipal or county facilitiesto reach areas

that would be served by ADHS in the build alternative. Overall, applying HPMS characteristicsto statewide

model trips generated in rural areas yields traffic shares consistent with Federal Highway Statistics.

Federal data show this traffic accounts for approximately 45 percent of VMT (and 52 percent of travel in

rural areas) on highways in the affected states in 2014. When the differential in distance per‐trip and

average speed between ADHS standards and minor arterial, collector or local road standards are

considered, these facilities account for a significant share of Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT) savings

associated with ADHS, details that often do not appear in the more aggregate statewide models.

NHPN and FAF Network and Estimates

Because the statewide networks described above have varying levels of detail, and each statewide model

treats external (long distance national travel) differently, long‐distance truck travel is estimated by

utilizing additional Federal data sources to represent the routing of long‐distance truck traffic into and out

of the Appalachian states. The networks used for integrating long‐distance truck traffic are national freight

highway networks assembled by Oak Ridge National Laboratory in support of the FAF and the recently

produced routable FHWA NHPN.  

The FAF network comprises the base network for estimating the exchange of long‐distance truck traffic

between the highway networks in Appalachian states (including all ADHS corridors) and the rest of the
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United States. This network has a comprehensive collection of national highway system and other roads

throughout the nation.

The FAF network contains information on functional class but not on speed or capacity. Therefore, for link

attributes that affect capacity but that are not in the FAF network (such as the number of lanes, speeds,

and terrain), the methodology references national street data layers from TransCAD and/or the relevant

statewide model networks to properly attribute the network. It is important to consider these attributes

in the capacity calculations because ADHS corridor projects typically add lanes and other similar

improvements to new or more direct highway routes. In some cases, the roadway characteristic of the

FAF network have been checked against (or augmented by) data from the 2016 NHPN.

As with passenger travel, there are two types of truck freight flows:   short and long‐distance. Short

distance freight flows are assembled from the statewide model trip tables, just as with the passenger trip

tables described previously (for both base and forecast years). Long distance freight flows are

disaggregated from the FAF commodity flow forecasts to county‐to‐county truck flows based on industry‐

level employment and then further into the ADHS TAZ structure (derived from statewide models as

described above). Tests were conducted during the research process.

Use of VMT, VHT, and Trips at the Corridor Level

Given the all‐sources approach to developing a large‐scale regional travel model to analyze the ADHS, it

is important to note that the VMT, VHT, and trip estimates for each ADHS corridor do not reflect simply

an improved performance for traffic counts that may be shown on existing flow maps of affected areas.

Instead, because the methodology accounts for the re‐assignment of national truck traffic, statewide

traffic, and traffic from collectors and local facilities, the VMT and VHT benefitsshown at the corridor level

are national in nature, reflecting re‐routing of traffic to and from destinations not currently served, and

patterns extending beyond any given immediate corridor area. Specifically, corridor level estimates must

be understood to account for:

(1) Re‐assignment of traffic from multiple collectors and local facilities onto the new faster and more

direct ADHS routes.

(2) Transportation savings outside of the corridor area occurring due to relief of multiple bottlenecks

and disbursed traffic on competing lower‐capacity routes currently being utilized.

(3) Transportation savings occurring due to business migration into corridor areas, making jobs,

goods, and services not locally available today accessible with much shorter travel times in the

future.

(4) Transportation savings occurring on future trips due to background economic growth not

accounted for in today’s counts.

These four considerations, resulting from the all‐sources methodology, are vital to properly measuring

the transportation benefits and impacts of corridor‐specific investments shown in chapter 5.
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Transportation Efficiency Impacts  

The transportation performance and efficiency effects of the ADHS are primarily estimated based on the

travel methodology described above and monetized into transportation benefits (see below). Sources of

improved efficiency result from: (1) shorter travel distances (measured in terms of VMT) due to more

direct routing between origins and destinations served, and (2) shorter and more reliable travel times

(measured as VHT) due to higher highway design speeds and additional capacity on ADHS corridors.

Mileage Associated Impactsinclude factorssuch asthe reduction in vehicle operating costs(from reduced

fuel consumption as well as wear and tear on vehicles), reduced crash costs (from crash rate reductions

associated with higher ADHS design standards as well as from reduced mileage traveled), reduced

emissions costs(from reduced mileage traveled), and logistics/supply chain savings(associated with more

efficient use of the time goods spend in transit, reduced likelihood of spoilage and other savings

associated with streamlined freight operations).

Time Associated Impacts include factors such as reduced time spent in transit for goods, reduced travel

time for individuals and less “reliability time” spent waiting for goods with uncertain arrival periods.

Because the networks currently (or historically) used in the absence of the ADHS are exceptionally low

capacity, lack opportunities to pass slower vehicles, and are particularly subject to weather events,

flooding or seasonal variation, the gain in reliability leads to “reliability time” savings, which account for a

significant share of travel time savings reported in subsequent chapters.

Market Access Impacts  

In addition to more efficient routing and travel conditions for existing traffic, the ADHS is expected to

expand the mix of workers, visitors, products, and business relationships available to areas served by the

system. This aspect of performance is regarded in the report as “Market Access,” measured in terms of

three key concepts:

Workforce Access represents the magnitude of the workforce that a business can draw upon to get

workers. A larger workforce typically enables businesses to get more specialized workers that better

match to their needs. For purposes of this study, the population accessible within a 60‐minute

commute was used as a proxy measure to represent comparative differences (and changes) in

workforce access among locations. Workforce access is typically enhanced in cases where ADHS

corridors improve speeds or reduce the mileage needed for potential workers to get to or from an

Appalachian county to a potential place of work. Improvementsin labor market access enable existing

businesses to be more productive by increasing the size and competitiveness of the available

workforce in any given occupation. New businesses can also be attracted to Appalachia as a result of

these improved labor market conditions.

Supplier and Delivery Market Access is defined in terms of the same‐day truck delivery market that

can be reached from any given businesslocation. Thisisthe area to which a truck can travel and return

in the same day–allowing for three hours travel each way and one hour for loading and unloading at

each end of the trop. For purposes of thisstudy, the employment accessible within a 240‐minute drive

time was used as a proxy measure to represent comparative differences (and changes) in business

delivery access among locations. As with labor market access, delivery market accessis also enhanced
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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in cases where the ADHS corridors improve speeds or reduce the mileage needed for goods to be

supplied to factories in Appalachian counties or for the purchasing of goods made and sold from

Appalachian counties. Improvements in delivery market access enable existing businesses to be more

productive by enabling scale economies, thus enabling producers to enjoy lower prices for the inputs

of production, as well as a wider range of possible supplies that can be used to make and sell goods

and services. In addition to enhancing productivity for existing businesses, such improved market

conditions are also anticipated to attract new business to Appalachia.

International Gateway and Inter‐Modal Center Access is defined as average drive time from an

Appalachian county to an inter‐modal facility (airport, marine port, or rail terminal). These facilities

provide for transfers of people or freight from roads to other modes of travel, and hence open up

access to broader markets.  

Factors for Valuation of Transportation Benefits 

Both transportation system efficiency benefits(e.g., travel times, reliability, and safety) and market access

benefits (e.g., labor and same day delivery markets) can be valued in dollar terms. The transportation

system efficiency benefits are valued on the basis of both actual measurable dollarimpacts(e.g., operating

costs of vehicles and worker hourly costs) and the valuation that people ascribe to social benefits (e.g.,

personal time saved, as well as safety and environment improvements) that are based on surveys. Table

3 showsthe per‐hour and per‐mile values used to derive specific transportation system efficiency benefits.  

The productivity value of market access benefits was calculated by the TREDIS (Transportation Economic

Development Impact System) economic model4, using valuation factors consistent with elasticities of

agglomeration benefits described in NCHRP Report 786 (Assessing Productivity Impacts of Transportation

Investments, Transportation Research Board, 2014), with additional detail of differences by industry. The

economic modeling analysis process is discussed further in Section 2.4.  

Forthe benefit‐cost analysis, all benefits and costs are discounted at both seven percent and three percent

(consistent with USDOT TIGER guidance) to demonstrate the potential magnitude of benefits in relation

to costs, as well as to demonstrate what is at stake when considering scenarios to accelerate completion

of the system.

                                                            

4 http://tredis.com/. 
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Table 3:  Monetary Values for Transportation Performance Benefits  

Benefit Type Value Per Unit

Vehicle Operation Cost (per hour)–Car $0.14

Vehicle Operation Cost (per hour)–Truck $0.45

Vehicle Operation Cost (per mile)–Car $5.03

Vehicle Operation Cost (per mile)–Truck $22.56

Passenger Time Cost (per hour)–Car $18.45

Crew Time Cost (per hour)–Truck $32.43

Reliability Time Cost (per hour)–Car and Light Truck $18.45

Reliability Time Cost (per hour)–Freight Truck   $72.57

Safety Cost (per incident)–property damage only $4,198

Safety Cost (per incident)–personal injury $174,030

Safety Cost (per incident)–Fatality $9,600,000

Emission Values (per U.S. ton)–NOx $7,266

Emission Values (per U.S. ton)–SOx $42,947

Emission Values (per U.S. ton)–VOC $1,844

Emission Values (per U.S. ton)–PM $332,405

Emission Values (per U.S. ton)–CO2 $43

Freight Logistics Time Factor (per ton hour)–Freight Truck $1.67

Source:  Value of time, safety and emissions are from the Federal Highway Administration, TIGER Grant Benefit‐

Cost Guidance. Value of reliability is from NCHRP Report 786, Assessing Productivity Impacts of Transportation

Investments, Transportation Research Board, 2014.All values adjusted to 2015 dollars. See also TREDIS® Data

Sources and Default Values, TREDIS® Version 5.0, 2017.

Use of Interviews and Local Information Sources 

To aid in interpreting and appropriately describing anticipated economic and performance benefits of

ADHS, a set of interviews were conducted, focused on five corridorsthat have significant mileage and high

costsfor remaining segmentsto be built. They were corridors H, K, N, Q, and X1. The purpose of the “local”

interviews were to obtain insight regarding: (a) what the expectation is for improved economic

opportunities as a result of better highway performance and access, and (b) how the need for the project

may have evolved since its initial proposal. Unsurprisingly, the remaining unfinished segments are those

that pose a combination of challenging terrains and engineering constraints which affects the cost to

construct. Some also pose higher environmental concerns.  

The interviewees are noted in the Acknowledgements page at the front of the report. They included

economic developers, regional/state transportation planners/engineers, county administrators, business

trade organization representatives, academics, and non‐profit organizationalstaff. The interviewsfocused

on obtaining information regarding: (a) context in terms of perceived project benefits and beneficiaries,

(b) expected impact of the project from the perspectives of transportation, the economy, and the

environment, (c) changes in importance of the project due to changes in local or regional transportation

conditions or economic conditions, and (d) project importance, remaining obstacles, and problems.

Results were used to ensure that the overall system analysis findings (in chapter 4) and the specific

corridor analysis findings (in chapter 5) are generally consistent with local observations.
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Modeling Regional Economic Development Impacts 

The transportation performance indicators and benefits described in section 2.1 and 2.2 represent factors

that provide the basis and inputs to estimate the wider impacts on the regional economy of Appalachia

and the 13 Appalachian states. These economic development impacts were estimated using the TREDIS

(Transportation Economic Development Impact System) model. TREDIS is a computational framework for

estimating regional economic impacts following a change in transportation facilities and operating

conditions. The overall modeling framework consists of four elements that interact to produce results.

Figure 6 shows the relationship between four key economic modeling components:

 The analysis of transport cost savings and associated travel efficiencies;

 The analysis of market access improvements and associated economic growth;

 The allocation of the above two effects among various sectors in the economy; and

 The application of a regional economic simulation and forecasting model that estimates

impacts on supply, demand, and prices (for labor and capital), the flow of investment (to

and from regions), and total regional economic impacts (on income and jobs) over time.

Figure 6:  Components of Economic Impact Process

Figure 7 outlines four steps in the economic impact analysis process:

(1) Travel Model: The transportation analysis and performance indicators described in

Section 2.1 provide the basis for changes in VMT (reflecting travel distance

improvement) and VHT (reflecting speed improvement), as well as impacts on market

access and connectivity improvements;

(2) Travel Cost Savings: A travel‐cost analysis is applied to calculate the net value of the time

and cost savings for businesses and households (Section 2.2), based on forecasts of

expected future trips;

(3) Market Access Expansion: A market access analysis is applied to calculate how changes

in access to population centers, delivery areas and access to intermodal terminals affect

regional competitiveness and economic growth opportunities; and

(4) Regional Economic Response: A dynamic regional economic model is applied to estimate

the long‐range economic impacts and adjustments expected to result from the regional

business cost and regional access changes.
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Figure 7:  Economic Impact Modeling Approach

Travel‐Cost Response Element

The Travel‐Cost Response element translatestravel demand characteristicsfor future scenariosinto direct

costsavingsthat accrue to households and businesses. The travel demand characteristics are derived from

the transportation performance characteristics described in section 2.1, and they include VMT, VHT, Trips,

congestion levels, vehicle occupancy, and freight loads. These interact with values of time and operation

costs of travel to determine direct dollar savings to households and firms. In addition, the travel cost

methodology estimates the cost savings value of improved travel‐time reliability for business. Industry

benefits are further segmented among industrial sectors based on the Region’s commodity mix and each

industry’s utilization of different travel modes.

Market Access Response Element

The second element of the economic impact methodology estimates impacts of improved access and

connectivity, in terms of their effects on the scale of business markets and implications for productivity

increases and revenue growth. These impacts are distinct from those estimated by the Travel Cost

element in that they represent improvementsin business operations and marketsrather than costsavings

for existing trips. Because firms have better access to labor, inputs, and consumers, and because

consumers have better accessto goods, the Region as a whole becomes more attractive place for business

location (as described in section 2.1).  
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Economic Adjustment Element

The third element is the core economic impact model, which uses information on the direct travel cost

savings and market access impacts described above, to estimate broader effects on productivity, net

inflows of investment, business growth, labor costs, and migration of households. It also calculates

additional “indirect” impacts on growth of business related to business suppliers, and “induced” impacts

related to consumer re‐spending of added worker income. Indirect effects reflect economic activity

generated through regional business‐to‐business linkages in the supply chain. For example, if the

pharmaceuticals manufacturing sector is forecast to grow in Appalachia, then businesses that supply

materials and products to that sector will also benefit (as well as their suppliers, etc.). To the extent that

these “upstream” suppliers are located within the Region, Appalachia will gain additional economic

activity.

Induced impacts stem from increases in local consumer spending following a gain in personal income in

the Region. To follow the previous example, the pharmaceuticals manufacturing sector also may increase

total wage outlay. To the extent that the increase in wages is spent locally on goods and services,

Appalachia gains additional economic activity as a result.  The outcome of the economic impact model is

a series of projections of changesin employment, business output, GRP or value added, and wage impacts

by industry – for the Region and the thirteen Appalachian states.

Benefit-Cost Analysis 

As a finalstep, the benefit‐cost analysis elementsummarizesthe time streams of future benefits and costs

of transportation investment in the Appalachian Region. This analysis utilizes information from each of

the elements described in section 2.4 and organizes them in terms of economic benefit measures. It then

comparesthem with capital and operating and maintenance (O&M) cost estimatesto develop net present

values and benefit‐cost ratios.

First, all benefits are estimated for the year 2045 (the forecast years for transportation performance

estimation) and itemized by type:  A) industry savings; B) out‐of‐pocket household savings; C) household

time savings; and D) market accessimpacts. All benefit types are calculated separately for the Appalachian

Region and for the entire U.S. For the first three benefits (A through C), which comprise direct travel

efficiency savings, the portion of benefits accruing to the Appalachian Region was determined based on

the number of local versus nonlocal trip ends. Market access benefits, element D, reflect additional

sources of regional economic growth, and for those impacts, it is assumed that productivity gains and

increases in international exports are a national benefit.  But, that all of the benefits to the Appalachian

Region related to the attraction of business activity will cancel out at the national level.

Second, each type of benefit is estimated over time between forecast years and extending out to the year

2075 to facilitate analysis of the present value of future benefit and coststreams. Benefitstreamsfor each

dollar of ADHS investment are assumed to support a useful asset life of 30 years from the year of

construction. This is because of the length of this analysis period, and because ARC’s current cost

estimates include initial construction outlays only, excluding assumptions about the annual operation and

maintenance cost, or preservation cost at the end of a project’s useful life (30 years). These extended

values were estimated on the basis of:  1) estimated growth rate in the underlying traffic volumes; 2) the

planned program completion schedule (including both the anticipated 2045 completion schedule as well
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as an accelerated schedule to complete by 2035); and 3) empirical research on the timing of market access

impacts (see below). The application of these phase‐in schedules yields dollar estimates for each impact

type for all years in the forecast horizon.

In the final step, a discount rate is applied to determine the present value of the benefit and cost streams.

The discounting is performed for costs and each of type of benefit (A through D) for two alternative real

discount rates ‒ 3 percent and 7 percent. The result of this step is a matrix of present values of benefits

and costs. Finally, benefits, and costs are compared to determine net present values (present value of

benefits minus costs) and benefit‐cost ratios using alternative discount rates and regional/national

perspectives.  
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3 Backcasting—Effects of ADHS to 

Date (1965‒2015) 

The purpose of this chapter is to provide information on the extent to which historic development of the

Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS) has supported the development of the Appalachian

regional economy from the program’s inception in 1965 through the start of 2016. The ADHS is planned

to comprise 3,090 miles, and as of the end of FY 2015 (the period examined in this chapter), 87.7 percent

of those miles were open to traffic and 83.4 percent were complete. (The percent open to traffic increased

to 90.4 percent by the end of FY 2016.) This retrospective analysis is designed to provide insight into how

the incremental development of the ADHS has led to a significantly more productive and competitive

Appalachian economy, with more jobs, people and income than would be the case without it.  

The analysis process represents a significant enhancement beyond prior studies in estimating the impacts

to date of ADHS. It was developed using rigorous economic modeling that controlled for variation in both

transportation patterns and the economy of Appalachian counties and the broader 13 Appalachian states

over a span of 50 years. It also used a modeling framework (in terms of both highway network models

and economic models) that was fully consistent with the forward‐looking forecast analysis of ADHS

completion that are addressed later in this report.  

The retrospective analysis process used in this report is known as “backcasting,” as opposed to the usual

“forecasting” process that is normally used in transportation economic analysis. Forecasting studies

normally start with a baseline forecast and then assess what would be the future effects of a hypothetical

scenario in which a proposed new project is added. Backcasting studies, in contrast, start with a history in

which planned (ADHS) investments have already been made, and assess what would have been the past

effects of a hypothetical scenario if those investments were not made. The results of this backcasting

exercise are then discussed in the broader context of how the ADHS system has complemented and

reinforced other ARC economic development programs to enhance the Region’s overall productivity and

attractiveness for business investment.  

ADHS System Construction to Date 

Completion over Time  

Over the 1965 to 2015 period, significant progress has been made in the development of the ADHS.

Investment in this period has totaled $11.2 billion resulting in the completion of 5,119 lane‐miles of

highway added to the transportation system in the 13 states of the Appalachian Region. Table 4 shows

the overall investment and infrastructure additions made over time, and Figure 8 shows the geographic

location of corridors associated with each of three time periods defined for this study.  
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Table 4:  ADHS Investment and Miles Added Over Historic Development Periods

1965‒1983 1983‒1999 1999‒2015 All Periods

ADHS Investment ($M) $3,255 $1,661 $6,287 $11,203

ADHS Lane Miles Added 4,356 267 496 5,119

Source:  ARC. Note that all investment numbers reflect actual dollars spent in various years within the specified

time periods; they are not modified or adjusted to any constant dollar concept (and thus would be significantly

larger if inflated to today’s dollars).

Figure 8:  ADHS Corridor Segments and Completion Status by Time Period

Sources:  Appalachian Regional Commission  

A large share of ADHS construction occurred in the first 18 years of the program, as the Region built high

priority corridors and completed those highway segments that had fewer technical or environmental

concerns. Additional progress on the more challenging and difficultsegments has continued in subsequent

periods through 2015, and is proposed to continue until completion of the system by 2045. While ARC

records enable this general illustration of where and when progress on the ADHS has been most

concentrated, it is important to note that the specific limits and characteristics of each individual highway

improvement are beyond the available data and scope of the current report.
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ADHS Improvements Complement a Larger Highway System

When considering the historic economic impact of the ADHS, it is important to understand the ADHS as

one of several major highway expansion programs affecting the 13 Appalachian states in the period from

1965 to 2015. The ADHS segments completed over this time period total 5,119 lane‐miles and serve 5.6

billion vehicle miles of travel annually. The ADHS has also made communities, regions, and businesses

accessible to both the NHS and the interstate highway system—broader effects that would not have

otherwise occurred.

The ADHS investments are a small portion of the total highway miles in the 13 Appalachian states (See

Table 5). However, they are intentionally concentrated in distressed and non‐metro counties. Figure 9

showsthat while the non‐metro counties accounted for just half of total Appalachian Region employment,

they received 73 percent of the ADHS lane miles. Similarly, distressed counties account for just 30 percent

of regional employment but 58 percent of the ADHS lane miles added.  

Table 5:  ADHS Cumulative Lane Miles Added vs. Overall Highway Lane Miles Added

ADHS Investments

Periods

By 1983 By 1999 By 2015

Total ADHS Lane Miles Added 4,356 4,623 5,119

Total Lane Miles of All Highways  

in 13 Appalachian states 1,203,721 1,323,681 1,496,283

Source:  Appalachian Regional Commission and Federal Highway Statistics Series 1965‐2015.

Figure 9:  Emphasis of ADHS Segments in Non‐Metro and Distressed Areas

Source:  EDR Group and ARC  

Figure 10 illustrates the location of ADHS segments, and the counties considered to be economically

distressed as of 1965 when the ADHS program was started. It illustrates how most of the ADHS corridors
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were designed to serve as links from non‐metro, largely distressed areas to non‐distressed areas that

included major metro areas at the periphery (and often outside the boundaries) of Appalachia.

Figure 10:  ADHS Investments 1965‐2015:  Connecting Distressed Counties with Metro Areas

Source:  Map generated by EDR Group based on data from ARC  

The share of ADHS lane miles built in counties considered to be economically distressed as of 1965 is

shown in Table 6. As poverty has been reduced (and definitions of economic distress have been revised),

the share of lane miles now considered to be in economically distressed areas has fallen.  

Table 6:  ADHS Investment in Distressed Counties

ADHS Investments

Period of Highway Completion

1965‒1983 1983‒1999 1999‒2015

Lane Miles built in Distressed Counties      1965 Distress Definition 2,548 183 258

Total Lane Miles Built 4,356 267 496

Percent of Lane‐Miles in Distressed Counties  

    (1960 Classification) 58% 69% 52%

Source:  Appalachian Regional Commission
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Transportation System Performance 

The ADHS enables both transportation system efficiencies and productivity gains from expanded market

access. These benefits repeat every year and grow over time. They represent the value of:   

a) reduced average travel times and travel distance changes(enabled by less circuitous and

faster speed trips into, out of and through Appalachia);  

b) enhanced reliability and reduced uncertainty (a reduction in the “reliability” or “schedule

time” that households and businesses build into their schedules to allow for arrival time

uncertainties on rural and local roads that are highly susceptible to inclement weather,

crash delay, slow moving vehicles, or impassible conditions); and  

c) enhanced business productivity (due to broader accessto workers, customers, and trade

partners).

Travel System Efficiency Benefits

Travel Time and Reliability Savings. The transportation network efficiency benefits of the ADHS are

primarily in the form of travel time and reliability benefits.  Table 7 below shows the daily vehicle hours

of travel (VHT) time, and hours of reliability time saved in 2015 due to ADHS improvements as of four

points in time. The numbers shown for each year reflect the cumulative effect of corridor projects

completed prior to and within that year.

Table 7:  Travel Time and Reliability Savings in 2015, from Completed Projects  

Millions of hours saved, annually

                  for all projects completed  As of 1983 As of 1999 As of 2015

Total VHT Time Savings (millions of hours) 208.1 218.3 231.0

Car & Light Trucks   179.8 188.6 199.5

Freight Trucks   28.3 29.7 31.5

Total Reliability Time Savings(millions of hours) 116.3 122.0 129.1

Car & Light Trucks   100.5 105.4 111.5

Freight Trucks   15.8 16.6 17.6

Total Hours Saved (Reliability and VHT) 324.4 340.3 360.1

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.

The analysis reveals that the ADHS now saves 231 million hours per year of travel time each year,

representing 632,000 hours per day, compared to what would have been the case without the ADHS. This

travel benefit is a product of fasterspeeds and growing traffic volumes over time (meaning more travelers

benefit from highway completion). In addition to the hours of time saved by increased travel speeds and

shorter routes on the ADHS, it is estimated that 129 million hours of “reliability time” are saved annually,

representing another 360,000 hours saved daily due to greater reliability (reduced travel time

uncertainty). This is slack time that businesses and people build into their schedules to allow for

uncertainty in arrival times which they could more productively use if they can gain greater certainty

about their arrival time. The total transportation system efficiency savings is equal to 360 million vehicle

hours saved annually.  
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While the overall travel time savings are widely distributed geographically, the reliability time gains are

located primarily within Appalachia as they result from the addition of passing lanes (which are most

important on steep grades where some trucks cannot maintain full speed) and from the improved routing

that reduces reliance on local roads, collectors, and minor arterials (that were formerly necessary to get

from the heart of Appalachia to the larger national highway system). Combined, these two kinds of of

travel time savings equate to over 986,000 hours each day, representing 360 million hours each year, that

are saved because of the completed ADHS segments.  

Spatial Distribution of Time Savings Benefit. Information is also available on the distribution of the time

savings benefits by trip origin and destination. In this regard, it is important to note that there are two

different geographies of interest: (a) the extent to which affected trips are serving locationsin Appalachian

counties, and (b) the extent to which affected trips are serving locations within the broader set of the 13

Appalachian states. While locations within Appalachia are of interest to assess effects on the target area,

the 13 state departments of transportation (DOTs) that construct and fund the ADHS may be particularly

interested in the wider statewide benefitsfor their constituencies. Thisreport considers both study areas.

The benefits of ADHS investments accrue to all highway travelers, but are particularly important for long

distance freight movements. Freight‐carrying trucks account for just 4.3 percent of all traffic on the road

systems of the 13 Appalachian states, butrepresent approximately 14 percent of all vehicle‐hours of travel

time savings attributable to these ADHS routes. A further breakdown of car and freight truck benefits is

shown in Table 8, categorized by the mode and trip origin/destination. It shows that while nearly 68

percent of the car trips have an origin and/or destination within Appalachian counties, the ratio drops to

60 percent for freight truck trips. The importance of long‐distance travel is also shown by the fact that 20

percent of car VHT savings and 31 percent of freight truck VHT savings accrue to trip ends located outside

of the 13 Appalachian states. This indicates that the ADHS plays a particularly important role serving

longer‐distance goods movement and trade, connecting the Region to destinations throughout the U.S.

Table 8:  Travel Time and Reliability Savings from Completed Projects, by Trip Origin/Destination

Location  

Savings as of 2015

(millions of hours saved annually)

Appalachian

Counties

Appalachian

States

Rest of

U.S. States Total

Total (millions of hours saved) 240.3 282.8 77.3 360.1

     Car & Light Trucks   211.0 248.8 62.1 311.0

     Freight Trucks   29.3 34.0 15.1 49.1

Percent of Total:  Cars & Light Trucks only 67.8% 79.9% 20.1% 100%

Percent of Total:  Freight Trucks only 59.6% 69.2% 30.8% 100%

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.

Travel efficiency benefits of the ADHS are spatially distributed broadly throughout the entire region, as

shown in Table 9 and Figure 11, and generally track with the location of completed ADHS segments. The

table classifies Appalachian counties based on the extent of travel efficiency benefits (time and reliability

savings) occurring there due to ADHS improvements done over 1965‐2015. The “most affected counties”

(shown in dark blue in the Figure 11) are those that account for around 20 percent of total travel benefits,

while the “moderate affected counties” representing the next 50 percent of travel benefits from the

ADHS. It shows that while the highest concentrations of today’s travel efficiency benefits accrue in the
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areas targeted for direct investment since 1965, these benefits extend far beyond the core areas where

direct investment was made, and are now benefitting other parts of the Region, including cities that are

hundreds of miles away from where the initial investments were made.  

Table 9:  Distribution of Travel Efficiency Benefits by County, as of 2015

Groupings of Counties by

Benefit Levels

Percent of all

Hours Saved

Number of  

Zones*

Most Affected Counties 21% 25

Moderate Affected Counties   45% 172

Other Affected Counties 34% 183

Total 100% 420

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.

*Note:  The 420 counties in Appalachia are represented by 460 zones in the travel model; the counties represented

by multiple zones have large populations which were in the least affected category

Figure 11:  Annual Travel Efficiency Benefits in 2015 from Past ADHS Improvements

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.
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Market Access Benefits

Besides providing travel efficiency (costsavings) due to travel time and reliability improvements, the ADHS

has had substantial impacts on the accessibility of Appalachian communitiesto (1) labor markets, (2) truck

delivery markets, and (3) intermodal terminals–both within and outside the periphery of Appalachia.  

Labor Market Access. The ADHS investments enable firms located in counties served by ADHS corridors

to gain access to more workers. That allows them to draw from a wider pool of highly qualified workers

and access workers with specialized skills that match the products and services that they produce. This

effect can be viewed in terms of the increases in number of workers that can reach an Appalachian

business within a one‐hour commute. Alternatively, it can be viewed in terms of increases in the number

of job opportunities that can be reached within one hour by an Appalachian resident. In addition, the

ADHS also affected access to broader product delivery markets. Figure 12 and Table 10 illustrate the

extent of greater workforce access available to each county in the ADHS (as of 2015), that can be

attributed to ADHS investment to date. For these measures, the improvement in access to population is

used as a proxy to measure workforce access.

Figure 12:  Increases in Accessible Workforce in 2015 from Past ADHS Improvements

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.
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In this map for 2015, the shades of blue represent the ratio of people accessible to each Appalachian

county within a 60‐minute drive time in comparison to the number that would be available if ADHS were

not in place. The darkest shade of blue correlates to counties where there are from 1.9 to 2.7 times as

many people within a 60‐minute drive of the indicated county in 2015 than would be the case without

ADHS. It is notable (and expected) that the largest workforce accessimprovements occur near the location

of now completed ADHS segments, and that they are mostly in remote areas away from the major

population centers. Most of the workforce access gains are to distressed counties.

The map indicates that workforce accessibility gains tend to be greatest in those counties where ADHS

links were constructed (or adjacent counties to them), but it also shows that some surrounding counties

also benefit from this access. Asshown in Table 10, much of the workforce accessibility gain is attributable

to the initial boom in ADHS construction completed between 1965 and 1983, largely because during this

period the ADHS made vital connections to the interstate and NHS systems also underdevelopment in

that period, opening up the largestsegments of workforce in Appalachia. However, further improvements

in workforce accessibility continue to accrue in subsequent periods. This table also shows that those

counties that were “most affected” in terms of travel efficiency benefits also had the largest gains in

workforce market access.  

Table 10:  Average Workforce Access Gains Attributable to ADHS Improvements  

ADHS Investments

Period of ADHS Link Completion

1965‒1983 1965‒1999 1965‒2015

Most Affected Counties 19.3% 19.6% 21.7%

Moderate Affected Counties   8.2% 8.3% 8.7%

Other Affected Counties 0.9% 1.0% 1.1%

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.

Same‐Day Visit and Delivery Market Access. The ADHS system, by connecting with other Interstate

highways and U.S. highways, also broadens the range of same‐day markets for tourism travel and truck

deliveries. By connecting the core of the Appalachian Region with outlying population markets, residents

of outside areas have greater opportunities to visit recreation and tourism destinations in Appalachia. At

the same time, Appalachian business locations can serve broader customer markets (both business‐to‐

business markets and consumer markets) via same‐day truck deliveries. For this study, the same‐day

market was measured in terms of the area that can be reached within a four‐hour one‐way trip. Figure 13

illustrates the size of same‐day markets reachable from Appalachian counties as of 1965, before the ADHS

program started.  

Truck delivery markets are measured on the basis of the number of business employees (a proxy for

business activity and potential trading partners) reachable from any given county within four hours of

one‐way travel (representing a same‐day round trip). The darker shaded counties represent larger size

markets accessible via same‐day truck delivery. Not surprisingly, counties that could already serve major

metropolitan area markets at the periphery of Appalachia are shaded. The white space (lack of delivery

market) in the central region is very striking.  

Figure 14 shows the counties that in 2015 have enhanced access to same‐day markets as a result of ADHS

improvements over the 1965‐2015 period. The filling in of access for the central areas (which were white
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in Figure 13) is quite striking. The shades of blue in this graphic indicate variations in the ratio of workers

within a four‐hour drive time in 2015 with ADHS in place relative to the number that would be accessible

without ADHS. As shown in the legend, the darkest shade of blue corresponds to counties that have

experienced an increase of 63.8 to 89.3 percent in the economic activity (number of jobs) accessible within

four hours with ADHS (compared to without ADHS) in 2015.

Figure 13:  Relative Size of Same‐Day Market Accessible from Appalachian Counties as of 1965

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff,  

HPMS, and Federal Highway Statistics.
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Figure 14:  Increase in Same‐Day Delivery Market in 2015 from Past ADHS Improvements

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff,  

HPMS, and Federal Highway Statistics.

Table 11 shows the percentage gains in same‐day truck delivery markets due to ADHS investments. There

are two key findings. First, those counties that were “most affected” in terms of travel efficiency benefits

also tended to have the largest gain in same day truck market access. Second, while the truck delivery

access improvements appear more modest in percentage terms than the gains in workforce access, that

is largely because of the larger scale of delivery markets and the complementary role of the ADHS with

national highway networks for longer distance trips. From 1965 to 2015, the ADHS has evolved to also

serve a role of reducing the travel time within a same‐day delivery radius that is ultimately enabled by the

National Highway System (NHS) and the Interstate highway systems. For example, ADHS may reduce a

delivery time from four hours to two hours in 2015, resulting in significant impacts as shown in the

previous chapter. However, with both NHS and the interstate systems in place, there are relatively few

areas not within a same‐day delivery radius of even the most remote ADHS core counties. The increases

in available customer markets shown in Table 11 are more than sufficient to support economic impact as

will be further described, and represent improved access to several key industry sectors.
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Table 11:  Increases Same‐Day Market Access Due to ADHS Investments

Appalachian Counties

Periods

1965‒1983 1965‒1999 1965‒2015

Most Affected Counties 7.10% 7.50% 8.30%

Moderate Affected Counties   6.10% 6.30% 7.00%

Other Affected Counties 1.80% 2.00% 2.30%

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.

Intermodal Terminal Access. An important aspect of the ADHS is that its highways provide connectivity

to broader interstate routes (e.g., east‐west links across the mountains) and thus enable access from the

core of Appalachia to intermodal terminals—major airports, marine ports, and intermodal rail facilities.

The locations of these intermodal facilities, relative to the ADHS, is shown in Figure 15.  

The importance of access to these terminals is that they enhance Appalachian visitor and truck delivery

markets beyond the same day markets noted in the preceding discussion. And they facilitate the logistics

for domestic and global trade opportunities (see Section 3.5 for case study examples). A detailed analysis

of enhancing rail, air and marine intermodal connectivity was conducted by measuring how the package

of ADHS links completed between 1965 and 2015 has affected average travel times from a sample of

locations within Appalachia to the nearest major national airport, marine port, and intermodal rail

terminal. While there were many different values for the travel time improvement between various

Appalachian locations and various intermodal terminals, the bottom line is that this analysis process

indicated that intermodal access provides a 17.6 percent increase in market access productivity, over the

impact of just same day highway access improvements. These effects are represented as business

productivity and revenue enhancement, which are discussed in the economic analysis section below.  
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Figure 15:  Locations of Intermodal Terminals Affected by ADHS Access

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.

Valuation of Transportation Benefits 

The travel efficiency benefits are valued in dollars,stemming from the travel efficiency impacts. The travel

savings (hours and miles) translate into reduced vehicle operating costs, business labor costs and shipper

logistics costs. The savings in personal travel time does not affect the flow of money in the economy, but

has a very real value to the people involved, and is included in the benefit‐cost analysis. Table 12 shows

the annual transportation cost savings occurring in 2015 as a result of ADHS completion to date.
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Table 12:  Value of Travel Efficiency Savings from Completed Projects as of 2015 ($ millions/yr.)  

Category of Value Freight Truck Car and Light Truck Total

Vehicle Operating Cost Savings $930 $2,473 $3,403

Business Travel Time Cost Savings $1,431 $2,261 $3,692

Shipper/ Logistics Cost Savings $555 $0 $555

Personal Travel Time Savings   $0 $3,059 $3,059

Total $2,916 $7,793 $10,709

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics. Valuation factors are defined in chapter 2.

Note:  All dollar values are in 2015 constant dollars.

The value of access benefits shows up primarily as an increase in economic productivity insofar as it

enables firms to gain “economies of scale” from serving wider customer markets (including same day

delivery and intermodal connectivity effects) and “economies of specialization” from accessing wider

labor markets with more diversified worker skills. These effects are estimated as impacts on economic

growth and competitiveness, which are addressed later.

Benefits Over Time. The travel efficiency benefits from earlier period ADHS projects are continuing to

grow over time, and represent a product of on‐going investment that is supporting and facilitating further

traffic growth over time. It isimportant to look retrospectively at improvements made in different periods

to understand that ongoing investments continue to add to the annual economic benefit of the system,

and to see how today’s transportation and productivity benefits of ADHS would be greatly diminished if

the program had not continued to develop towards initial vision.

Figure 16:  Annual Travel Efficiency Benefits from ADHS, Over Time (millions of 2015 dollars)

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.

Note:  Value of savings applies to all highway travelers.
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Economic Development Impacts 

Analysis Overview. The travel efficiency and access benefits discussed in the prior section affect business

operating costs, household spending and economic productivity within the Appalachian Region, the

broader 13 Appalachian states (including areas not in Appalachia), as well as in other adjacent states.

Approximately 31 percent of the truck‐related efficiency benefits and 20 percent of the car‐related

efficiency benefits occurring on ADHS segments actually accrue to outside parties who use the ADHS as

part of longer distance trips going to/from the Region or passing through the 13‐state region. The

additional access and associated economic development benefits for outside areas have not been

calculated as the economic development impacts are focused on the 13 Appalachian states. For the

majority of trips that do originate or end within these states, the cost savings and productivity benefits

lead to the creation of additional jobs, worker earnings and broader gross regional product (GRP) within

Appalachia.  

This study estimated those impacts using a multi‐regional economic impact model that has been specially

calibrated to show effects of transportation cost, access, and connectivity improvements. This modeling

process has two internal steps. First, the various transportation impacts (including travel time and cost

savings, reliability improvements, labor market and truck delivery market enhancements and intermodal

connectivity) are applied to each of twenty specific industries in each of the 13 Appalachian states to

assess the relative impact on its productivity and competitiveness. This step reflects the fact that some

industries in some areas are more sensitive than others to changes in relative transportation costs, or

changes in relative reliability changes, or changes in relative market size. The second step is to apply

statistically validated cost‐impact relationships and inter‐industry trade relationships to calculate the

expected impact on economic growth in each industry in the 13‐state region.

Economic Impacts Over Time

Annual Effect. Overall, ADHS investment made over the 1965‐2015 period enable the 13‐state region to

attract business investment and grow the economy. The result is that it is estimated to produce over $24

billion per year of added business sales, representing over $11 billion per year of added gross regional

product (GRP) as of 2015, compared to what would be the case without the ADHS. This increased

economic activity has helped create or support over 168,000 jobs with nearly $7.3 billion/year of added

worker income as of 2015. Table 13 summarizes these economic impacts and Figure 17 shows how they

have grown over time. It is important to note that while the economic growth effect grew most rapidly in

the earlier 1965‐1983 period, when the largest initial investment in ADHS construction was made, the

economic growth effectsrecur year after year, and these sustained effects accumulate over time (and will

continue to grow larger into the future) as economic gains from highway investment take time to be fully

realized.  

The vast majority of the economic growth impact is concentrated in the counties that comprise

Appalachia. This is to be expected, since all of the ADHS highway miles are within Appalachia, and they

predominantly serve trips with origins and/or destinations within the area. The broader impact on the

rest of the 13‐state region includes direct benefits for some additional industries, as well as wider indirect

(“multiplier”) effects on outside suppliers to Appalachian businesses. Even as the ADHS has enabled more

Appalachian residents to commute to jobs in larger cities outside of the Appalachian counties, those

workers have brought back the wages to be spent in their home communities.
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Table 13:  Impact of ADHS Projects on the Economy of Appalachia and Appalachian States

Increase compared to “no build” case As of 1983 As of 1999 As of 2015

13‐State Appalachian Region 

Business Output (Revenue) in $M/year $9,959   $15,207   $24,183  

GRP (Value Added) in $M/year $4,611   $7,037   $11,173  

Worker Income in $M/year $3,006   $4,587   $7,282  

Employment level (single year) 69,385 105,897 168,336

Lane‐Miles Built to date 4,356 4,623 5,119

Appalachia   

Business Output (Revenue) in $M/year $8,063   $12,312   $19,578  

GRP (Value Added) in $M/year $3,733   $5,697   $9,046  

Worker Income in $M/year $2,434   $3,714   $5,895  

Employment level (single year) 56,174 85,734 136,284

Lane‐Miles Built to date 3,527 3,743 4,144

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

Note:  All dollar values are in 2015 constant dollars.  

   
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The growth of these impacts over time is illustrated in Figure 17. It is notable that the growth of lane‐

miles was most pronounced in the early years, though economic growth was more pronounced in later

years.  Since all impacts are in constant 2015 dollars, the interpretation is that economic development

impacts are not immediate, but rather take years to accumulate. The program continues to create

additional economic activity from investment well into the 21st century. This suggests that there may be

additional potential for greater economic growth from continued investment to complete the system.

Figure 17:  Impact of ADHS Completion to Date on the Economy of Appalachian States

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

Note:  All dollar values are in 2015 constant dollars.

Cumulative Effect. Adding up the impact for every year from 1965 to 2015 (in constant 2015 dollars) yields

a cumulative impact of approximately $388 billion more GRP generated in the 13‐state region over 50

years, compared to what would otherwise be expected to occur over that time period. This result also

reflects a total of 5.8 million additional job‐years of employment generated over that same period. Note

that this is a total effect and does not reflect any discount rate adjustment to represent a net present

value.  

Economic Impacts by Industry

The economic growth impacts of ADHS investment are concentrated in industries that: (a) are present in

Appalachian counties, (b) are sources of national economic growth and (b) gain competitiveness from

cost savings, enhanced market access and intermodal connectivity. The relative roles of these factors

(cost savings, market access, and intermodal connectivity) in driving economic growth are shown in

Figure 18 with market access benefits playing the largest role in generating economic development

impacts.

Lane‐miles
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Figure 18:  Causal Factors Driving Economic Growth (GRP) Impacts of ADHS Completion to Date

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

Note:  All dollar values are in 2015 constant dollars.

The estimated industry mix of job and GRP impacts are shown in Table 14. This industry distribution of

economic impact is notably differentfrom the pattern of underlying industries concentrated in the Region,

since the most affected industries (in terms of jobs and GRP) are those industries with the highest growth

rate and greatest sensitivity to relative costs and market access improvements. The table below shows

that growth industries such as professional and business services and tourism were the economic sectors

that actually grew the most in the 13‐state region due to economic competitiveness benefits from the

ADHS.
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Table 14:  Employment and GRP Impacts of ADHS by Industry as of 2015

Industry

Added Jobs  

(Compared to No ADHS)

Added GRP  

(in $ millions/year)

Professional and Business Services   34,657 $1,870

Leisure and Hospitality (Tourism) 25,995 $804

Education and Health Services   19,751 $1,048

Retail Trade   17,165 $779

Financial Activities   18,044 $1,936

Manufacturing   12,313 $1,280

Warehousing   11,124 $607

Wholesale Trade   8,153 $1,083

Transportation   7,101 $460

Agriculture and Extraction   6,273 $357

Media and Information   3,049 $414

Construction   3,188 $181

Utilities   1,015 $316

Government   509 $37

Total in Year 2015 168,335 $11,173

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

Note:  All dollar values are in 2015 constant dollars.

This finding supports a conclusion that the ADHS has helped enable the Region to shift from a resource‐

based economy to a knowledge‐intensive and service‐based economy, following a trend also occurring

outside the Region. The second largest share of employment gain is in leisure and recreational services,

indicating that the access enabled by ADHS has supported growth of the Appalachian tourism economy.

Among other top impacted industries are education and health services, financial activities, and

manufacturing, all of which are integral to attracting and retaining the firms and workforce needed to

sustain overall economic growth. It is also notable that in terms of GRP growth, financial services and

manufacturing produce disproportionately more GRP income for the Region than their job impacts, a sign

of their economic importance. Finally, there are significant GRP gains for wholesale and warehousing

industries, which reflect the benefit of better transportation for supply chains. These major elements of

economic impact are summarized by the grouping of industries shown in Figure 19.
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Figure 19:  Top Economic Sectors in Terms of GRP Income Growth Due to ADHS  

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

Note:  All dollar values are in millions of 2015 constant dollars.  

Economic Impacts in Appalachian Counties

While the economic impact modeling focused on region‐wide impacts, it is also notable that those

Appalachian counties that most directly benefitted from ADHS investments (in terms of time savings and

access gains) also had higher employment growth than other Appalachian counties over the 1965‒2015

period. This result can be seen in Table 15, which shows how changes in county employment growth over

time relate to county differences in ADHS benefit (defined from Table 9).  

Table 15:  Employment Growth in Appalachian Counties from 1978 to 2015, by Strata of ADHS Benefit

Impact of ADHS Investments  

(from Table 9 in section 3.2)

Periods

1978‒1983 1983‒1995 1995‒2015 1978‒2015

Most Affected Counties 0.10% 43.50% 7.80% 54.90%

Moderate Affected Counties   ‐2.10% 36.70% 4.70% 40.00%

Other Affected Counties  ‐2.30% 31.80%  ‐1.30% 27.10%

Appalachian Region Total  ‐2.00% 35.00% 2.20% 35.20%

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

Note:  All dollar values are in 2015 constant dollars.  
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Case Studies: ADHS Connectivity to Inland 

Logistics Facilities and Global Trade 

There is a growing recognition of the importance of inland intermodal logistics facilities which are the

meeting point for highways with rail, waterways, and airports. In Appalachia, a number of these facilities

have now been developed providing vital connections between modes, offering up cost and time savings

for shippers, and connecting Appalachia to seaports and global markets. To highlight how the ADHS plays

an important role in trade and economic development, the ARC team visited two Appalachian logistics

facilities to better understand how they operate, link to the ADHS and generate economic opportunities

for the Region.  

Port of Huntsville (Alabama)–International Intermodal Center

The Port of Huntsville is in northern Alabama and includes multiple freight and passenger travel functions

and economic development activities within a single 7,000 acre facility:

 Huntsville International Airport – providing passenger air transportation to numerous domestic

and international destinations;

 International Intermodal Center – a multimodal freight logistics facility with both intermodal rail

(truck‐rail) activity and warehousing, as well as dedicated air cargo operations and facilities; and

 Jetplex Industrial Park – a 4,000 acre business park hosting 70 companies and providing 6,100

jobs for Huntsville area workers.

Figure 20:  Port of Huntsville International Intermodal Center

A key enabler of this facility was the construction of

Corridor V, running east‐west from northern Mississippi

through Alabama and into Tennessee.    Corridor V

provides direct access to the Port of Huntsville and is a

full interstate (I‐565) in this segment of the corridor,

with easy linkages to the I‐65 corridor with Nashville to

the north and Birmingham to the south.  

The international intermodal center (IIC) opened in

1986, assisted by an earlier industrial rail extension

grant that was funded by a combination of local, ARC

and Economic Development Administration (EDA)

resources.    The rail facility serves a Norfolk Southern

east‐west mainline route that provides inbound freight rail service directly from the ports of Charleston

and Savannah, along with outbound rail to the northeast and connections to west coast markets.  The

heaviest freight rail volumes to the facility represent international goods from the ports that are then

warehoused and distributed via truck to the Appalachian Region.  But the facility has also allowed local

companies to locate near the facility to receive and ship goods throughout the country.

The air cargo facility sits directly next to the rail facility, and handles ten 747 dedicated air cargo planes

per week helping Huntsville become the 17th largest airport for international air cargo in the U.S. The

facility has included a foreign trade zone (FTZ) designation since 1983, establishing it as a permanent port
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of entry.  The port would like to see more ADHS corridors upgraded to full interstate status with limited

access and no traffic lights, as Corridor V is predominantly U.S. highway 72 which limits the effectiveness

of the corridor for long‐distance freight trucking.   

Greer Inland Port (South Carolina)

A more recently developed facility, the Greer Inland Port in South Carolina opened in 2013 to serve a very

specific logistics opportunity in the Spartanburg/Greenville area. The BMW auto assembly plant located

here in 1995 kick‐started industrial development in the Region and was the original impetus to develop

an inland port to facilitate imports and exports by container. Owned and operated by the South Carolina

Ports Authority, Greer lies 212 milesinland from the Charleston deep waterseaport. Similar to the Virginia

Inland Port in Front Royal, VA, Greer has a dedicated Norfolk Southern “shuttle train” between the seaport

and inland port that sends 200 containers (“boxes”) each way every day. The inland port provides a

reliable, cost competitive service to handle a 50/50 mix of:  1) exports (goods from the Region trucked to

Greer that go by rail to the Charleston seaport bound for global markets); and 2) imports (goods arriving

at Charleston, travel by rail to Greer for inland distribution).

Figure 21:  Greer Inland Port  

Constructed at a cost of $47 million and

employing about 55 employees on‐site, the

Greer Inland Port handles 100,000 container

lifts per year, ahead of forecast and already at

80 percent of current capacity. The facility is

served by multiple highway connections which

expands the customer base that is served by

the inland port. For example, two of the largest

shippers using the Greer Inland Port – the

Eastman chemical company and John Deere

(both in Tennessee) – use ADHS Corridor W

(U.S. 25) to truck commoditiesto Greer for export. Greer has 50 acres of paved facility, including container

storage space, and another 100 acres for later expansion.  

The relatively abundant land for industrial development and strong highway system (combined with the

Greer Inland Port) have helped the area attract major distribution centerssuch as Rite‐Aid and Dollar Tree,

with Michelin and Adidas two other major area shippers benefiting from Greer. BMW provided an initial

anchor tenant and is the largest single customer generating about 65 percent of total volume at Greer.

The success at Greer is leading South Carolina to develop a second inland port in Dillon.

Common Features of the Two Case Studies.  As demonstrated by the two case studies, ADHS corridors

play a direct role in helping Appalachia and its businesses connect to global and domestic trade, and

world‐class logistics facilities. An integrated multi‐modal transportation system is necessary to

successfully link Appalachian businesses to export opportunities and distribution to inland markets. The

ADHS continues to play an important role in enabling inland logistics facilities, with trade and economic

development benefits for the Region.
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4 Forecasting—Effects of ADHS 

System Completion (2016‒2045) 

While the preceding chapter showed how past ADHS investments have provided transportation system

benefits and economic growth impacts, further progress to complete the system will provide additional

transportation benefits and economic growth opportunities. Specifically, completion of the full system

will enable the originally envisioned set of point‐to‐point connections without missing links or impeded

routing. While some “network” effects have been achieved to‐date, system completion is expected to

extend these to their full potential. For this reason, the effects of final completion of the ADHS include

not only the incremental performance effects of improved accessibility, speed, and routing on the

improved segments, but also some additional transportation cost savings and productivity gains

associated with the existence of a seamless system connecting all envisioned origins and destinations

served by ADHS.

ADHS Corridors Remaining to be Completed 

The ADHS is part of a federal‐state partnership, which (a) enables federal surface transportation funds

(apportioned to the individual states) to be used to fund completion of ADHS corridors, but (b) places

decision‐making for project planning, funds allocation and implementation in hands of the states. The

individual states provide completion time and cost estimates to ARC, which are then summarized in

annual reports issued by ARC. While these plans vary from state to state, the frequent use of 2045 as full

completion year (assumed in this report) comes from state plans.  

Currently, just 295 miles of the authorized ADHS network remains to be completed, though many of these

remaining road segments have not yet been completed because they have difficult topography (which

makes them more expensive to complete) and/or significant environmental challenges (which makes

design and approval more difficult to achieve). See Table 16 and Figure 22.

Table 16:  Future Completion of the ADHS by Investment and Miles Over Time

 2016‒2025 2026‒2035 2036‒2045 Total

ADHS Cost to Complete ($M) $3,374.0 $2,192.4 $5,348.4 $10,914.8

Highway Miles to be Completed 120.6 57.3 117.4 295.3

Source:  Estimates based on Appalachian Development Highway System Cost‐to‐Complete Report, 2012; and  

Status of the Appalachian Development Highway System, September 2016  

Note: Costs are in millions of constant 2015 dollars.
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Figure 22:  Segments of the ADHS Remaining to be Completed (as of September 30, 2016)

Transportation System Performance 

ADHS completion will generate changes in travel mileage as well as travel time and reliability. Travel

mileage changes include the offsetting effects of (a) providing more direct routes for some travelers, and

(b) providing faster speeds that attract some travelers to go out of their way to shift from existing slow

routes to the newer faster routes. The first effect generates reductions in total vehicle‐miles of travel,

while the second effect generates additions to vehicle‐miles of travel, although they are offset by the

value of time savings. Ultimately, travel models indicate that net changes in total vehicle mileage will be

small, but travel time and reliability improvements will significant, as shown in Table 19. Therefore, this

section focuses on benefits of improved travel time and reliability.

Travel Time and Reliability Savings. Table 17 shows the daily hours of vehicle travel time and hours of

“reliability time” expected to be saved by 2045 as a result of ADHS completion by that year. The table

presents savings for three points in time leading up to 2045, demonstrating the gains from incremental

completion of projects after 2016.
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Table 17:  Forecast Travel Time & Reliability Savings from Phased Completion of ADHS by 2045

Millions of Vehicle‐Hours Saved/Year as of  2025 2035 2045

Total VHT Time Savings   19.9   24.5   78.1  

    Car & Light Trucks 17.8   21.8   68.9  

    Freight Trucks 2.1   2.7   9.1  

Total Reliability Savings   11.0   13.5   43.0  

    Car & Light Trucks 10.5   12.8   40.7  

    Freight Trucks 0.5   0.7   2.3  

Total Hours Saved (Reliability and VHT) 31.0   38.0   121.0  

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Using Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff with further data

on travel characteristics from HPMS, and Federal Highway Statistics.

The table demonstrates that when completed in 2045, the ADHS is expected to save over 78 million

vehicle hours per year of travel time, representing nearly 214,000 vehicle hours per day, compared to

what would be the case without ADHS completion. This effect is a product of faster speeds and growing

traffic volumes over time. In addition, it is estimated that over 43 million vehicle hours will be saved

annually due to greater reliability (reduced travel time uncertainty). This is slack time that businesses and

people build into their schedules to allow for uncertainty in arrival times. It is time that could be used

more productively if travelers gain certainty about travel times due to increased reliability of the highway

network. The total transportation system efficiency savings is equal to over 121 million vehicle hours

saved annually.

Spatial Distribution of Time Savings and Reliability Benefit. Information is also available on the

distribution of the time and reliability savings benefits by trip origin and destination. In thisregard, as with

historical benefits described in chapter 3, it is important to note that there are two different geographies

of interest: (a) the extent to which affected trips are serving locations in Appalachian counties and (b) the

extent to which affected trips are serving locations within the broader set of the 13 Appalachian states.

While locations within Appalachia are of interest to assess effects on the target area, the 13 state DOTs

that are responsible for construction of the ADHS are particularly interested in wider statewide benefits

for their constituencies. This report considers both study areas.

The benefits of ADHS investments accrue to all travelers, but are particularly important for long distance

freight movements. Freight‐carrying trucks account for just 4.3 percent of all traffic on the road systems

of the 13 Appalachian states, but nearly ten percent of all vehicle hours of travel time savings

attributable to completing the ADHS by 2045. A further breakdown of car and freight truck benefits is

shown in  
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Table 18, categorized by the mode and trip origin and destination. It shows that 56 percent of the hours

saved for car travel is for trips that have origins and/or destinations within Appalachian counties. The

corresponding figure for freight truck trips is 44 percent, meaning that 56 percent of all freight truck trips

affected by ADHS completion have an origin or destination beyond Appalachia. This highlightsthe national

trade benefits of the ADHS. The national importance of ADHS travel time savings for long‐distance travel

is further shown by the fact that 16 percent of the car VHT savings and 20 percent of the freight truck VHT

savings accrue to trip ends located fully outside of the 13 Appalachian states.  
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Table 18:  Forecast Travel Time & Reliability Savings from ADHS Completion, by Location of Trip Ends  

Millions of Vehicle‐Hours  

Saved/Year as of 2045  

Appalachian   Rest of U.S.

Counties States States Total

Total (millions of vehicle hours saved) 66.9 101.2 19.8 121.0

Car & Light Trucks   61.9 92.1 17.5 109.6

Freight Trucks   5.0 9.1 2.3 11.4

Percent of Total:  Cars & Light Trucks only 56% 84% 16% 100%

Percent of Total:  Freight Trucks only 44% 80% 20% 100%

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing consolidated travel models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, along with

HPMS and Federal Highway Statistics.

While the travel time and reliability savings accrue throughout the United States, Figure 23 demonstrates

that travel time savings and reliability gains from completion of the ADHS are expected to be most

concentrated within the counties most directly served by the system. Of particular interest is Corridor X1,

which offers robust cost savings due to its large market in the area surrounding Birmingham, AL.  

Figure 23:  Distribution of Travel Efficiency Benefits for Completing ADHS (2045)

Source:  EDR Group Analysis utilizing consolidated travel models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, along with

HPMS and Federal Highway Statistics.
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It is also worth noting that while the overall travel time savings are widely distributed, the reliability time

gains are primarily within Appalachia. This stems from the fact that reliability improvements result from

the addition of passing lanes (which are important on steep grades where some trucks cannot maintain

fullspeed) and from improved routing that reducesreliance on local roads, collectors, and minor arterials.

Access Benefits

In addition to travel efficiency (cost savings) due to travel time and reliability improvements, the

completion of the ADHS is expected to have substantial impacts on the accessibility of Appalachian

communities to (1) labor markets, (2) truck delivery markets and (3) intermodal terminals—both within

and beyond the Appalachian states. Each category of access benefit is described in the following pages.

Labor Market Access. Completion of the ADHS will enable firms in counties served by the ADHS corridors

to gain access to 27 percent more workers within a one‐hour commute. They will be able to draw from a

wider pool of highly‐qualified workers and obtain workers with specialized skills necessary for the

products and services they produce. These effects are measured in terms of increases in the number of

people who are reachable within a one‐hour commute from each Appalachian county. Figure 24

demonstratesthe extent and location of greater workforce accessfor each county in Appalachia as a result

of ADHS completion in 2045.

Figure 24:  Increases in Accessible Workforce in 2045 Attributable to ADHS Completion

Source:  EDR Group Analysis utilizing consolidated travel models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, along with

HPMS and Federal Highway Statistics.
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For this measure of labor market access, the improvement in access to population is used as a proxy for

what is more technically the level of business access to working age individuals. For instance, it is

especially notable that due to the reach of Corridor X1 and the size of the Birmingham metropolitan area,

that highway improvement is expected to boost workforce accessibility for areas throughout Alabama.

In this map, the shades of blue represent the ratio of people in 2045 expected to be accessible to the

respective Appalachian county within a 60‐minute drive‐time in comparison to the number that would be

accessible if ADHS was not in place. The darkest shade of blue correlates to counties where there is the

largest increase in labor market access enabled by ADHS completion. Consistent with the pattern of

historic investment shown in chapter 3, completion of the ADHS is expected to achieve the largest

workforce access improvements in those areas most directly served by ADHS, i.e., areas that are remote

from major population centers.  

Same‐Day Visit and Delivery Market Access. By connecting with other interstate highways and other

principal arterials, ADHS broadens the range of same‐day markets for tourism‐related travel and truck

deliveries. Because of the ADHS, residents of outlying population markets will have greater opportunities

to visit recreation and tourism destinations in Appalachia. At the same time, Appalachian business

locations can serve broader customer markets (both business‐to‐business markets and consumer

markets) via same‐day truck deliveries. For this study, the same‐day market is measured in terms of the

area that can be reached within a four‐hour one‐way trip.

Figure 25 illustrates the increase in the size of the same‐day markets accessible by counties affected by

the ADHS, relative to the expected level of access if the ADHS is not completed. Truck delivery market

gains are calculated here on the basis of the number of business employees (a proxy for business activity

and potential trading partners) reachable from any given county within a four‐hour one‐way travel radius.

Altogether, firms located in counties served by the ADHS corridors are projected to gain access to 3

percent more same‐day customers.  While thisfigure may seem small, it represents a substantial potential

impact on business profits. The darker shaded counties represent business locations with the highest

percentage gain in accessible trading partners in 2045.  

That figure also shows how completion of ADHS corridors will provide currently missing “links” between

key markets served by ADHS and vital inter‐modal facilities. Examples include Corridor X1 enhancing

access to the intermodal rail facility in Birmingham, Alabama and Corridor H improving connections from

West Virginia to the Virginia Inland Port in Front Royal.
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Figure 25:  Increase in Same‐Day Market Access Attributable to ADHS Completion in 2045

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Utilizing Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and

Federal Highway Statistics.

Valuation of Transportation Benefits 

The travel efficiency benefits, such as hours of travel time saved, are valued in monetary (dollar) terms.

For freight and business‐related trips, the value of time represents business and labor costs and shipper

logistics cots. Savings in personal travel time do not affect the flow of money in the economy, but have a

very real value to the people involved (and are included in the benefit‐cost analysis). In addition to travel

time savings, vehicle mileage savings result in savings due to reduced exposure to crashes, reduced

emissions, and reduced fuel consumption and other vehicle operating costs. Table 17 demonstrates the

value of travel efficiency savings expected by 2045 (in terms of annual savings per year) from VMT and

VHT reductions.  

The value of access benefits is the increase in economic productivity occurring as firms gain “economies

of scale” from serving wider customer markets (including same day delivery and intermodal connectivity

effects) and “economies of specialization” from accessing wider labor and supplier markets (with more

diversified and specialized workerskills and materials). The larger workforce,supplier and customer pools

resulting from enhanced access make the Appalachian Region more productive and attractive for inward

investment.
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Only the “productivity effect” of market access is counted for the purposes of valuing net national

benefits. However, the subsequent section on wider economic impacts will further address the role of

market access with regard to regional competitiveness, business attraction and economic performance.

Table 19 and Figure 26 show the value of travel efficiency savings and market access productivity gains

expected in 2025, 2035 and 2045 (in terms of annual savings per year) from VMT and VHT reductions.

Increasing levels ofsystem completion combined with overall growth in the market for ADHS travel brings

the annual undiscounted value of travel efficiency gains from just over $587 million by 2025 to over $2.2

billion in 2045, with the largest gains represented by travel time and reliability savings. It is notable that

the largest source of benefit for car travel is time savings, while logistics cost savings are as important as

time savings for truck travel.

Table 19:  Travel Efficiency Benefits from Future ADHS Completion (in millions of 2015 dollars)  

Category of Value As of 2025 As of 2035 As of 2045

Vehicle Operating Cost $48.2 $59.7 $212.5

Travel Time $259.1 $319.0 $1,128.1

Reliability Time $72.4 $89.8 $321.0

Safety Costs $29.8 $36.4 $127.9

Environmental Cost $6.9 $10.4 $45.7

Shipper/Logistics Costs $42.6 $54.7 $201.4

Market Access (productivity gain only) $128.1 $230.0 $248.9

Total $587.1 $799.9 $2,285.6

Source:  EDR Group Analysis Using Consolidated Travel Models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, Federal Highway

Statistics, and HPMS; valuation factors are defined in chapter 2. All numbers in millions of constant 2015 dollars.

Figure 26:  Sources of Benefit Associated with ADHS Completion (as of 2045)

Source:  Source:  EDR Group Analysis utilizing consolidated travel models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff,

along with factors from HPMS and Federal Highway Statistics. Valuation factors are defined in chapter 2.   

All values are annual benefits as of 2045, expressed in millions of 2015 dollars.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Passenger Car All Trucks

Vehicle Operating Cost Travel Time Reliability Time

Safety Costs Environmental Cost Shipper/Logistics Costs

Millions of dollars
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Economic Development Impacts 

Analysis Overview. The transportation benefits discussed in the prior section affect business operating

costs, household spending and economic productivity within Appalachia.  These changes in money flows

enable greater economic growth and development within the Appalachian Region, as well as broader

economic impacts on the 13 Appalachian states as well as other nearby states.  

This study estimates the wider economic impacts of ADHS completion using a multi‐regional economic

impact model that has been calibrated to show effects of transportation cost, access, and connectivity

improvements. First, transportation impacts (including travel time, costsavings, reliability improvements,

labor market and truck delivery market enhancements, and intermodal connectivity) are applied to

specific industries in each of the 13 Appalachian states to assess the relative impact on the productivity

and competitiveness of that industry within the Region. This reflects the fact that some industries in some

areas are more sensitive than others to changes in relative costs, reliability, or market size. The second

step is to apply statistically validated cost‐impact relationships and inter‐industry trade relationships to

calculate the expected impact on economic growth in each industry in the Region.  

The analysis focuses on impacts for the Appalachian Region and the broader 13 Appalachian states.  

However, it should be noted that approximately 20 percent of the truck‐related efficiency benefits and 16

percent of the car related efficiency benefits actually accrue to parties located outside of the Appalachian

states, who use the ADHS as part of longer distance trips going to/from the Region or passing through the

13‐state region. The additional market access and economic development benefits for outside areas have

not been calculated as the economic development impacts are focused on the 13 states.  

Economic Impacts Over Time

Completion of the ADHS is expected to generate significant economic impacts. For example, the combined

economy of the 13 Appalachian states is estimated to be able to produce and sell $8.7 billion more in

goods and services per year (output), over $4.2 billion more in gross regional product, paying workers

nearly $2.7 billion more in wages, and adding nearly 47,000 more jobs than if the ADHS is not completed.

Table 20 and Figure 27 show how business output (sales), value added, wage income and employment

impacts are projected to develop from 2015 to 2045. It is notable that economic growth is particularly

pronounced in later years, reflecting the phased completion of ADHS segments and the fact that economic

development impacts accumulate over time.  

Table 20:  Annual Economic Impacts of ADHS Completion (in $ millions of 2015 Dollars)  

Annual Economic Impact of

Completing ADHS *

Appalachia Appalachian States

As of

2025

As of

2035

As of

2045

As of

2025

As of

2035

As of

2045

Business Output ($M Sales) $2,982 $4,855 $6,717 $3,875 $6,299 $8,704

Value Added ($M GRP) $1,450 $2,356 $3,269 $1,883 $3,056 $4,236

Wage Income ($M Earned) $909 $1,474 $2,063 $1,181 $1,913 $2,673

Employment (Jobs) 19,821 29,674 36,156 25,751 38,502 46,849

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

*Note: All values are in constant 2015 dollars.
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Figure 27:  Future Impacts of ADHS Completion on the Economy of the 13 Appalachian States  

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

Note: All values are in constant 2015 dollars.

In addition, the relative role of transportation efficiency, market access, and intermodal connectivity in

the growth of gross regional product (GRP) is illustrated in Figure 28. The GRP impact of cost savings

reflects an assumption of linear, gradual completion of ADHS segments over the period from 2016 to

2045.  The GRP impact of market access enhancement reflects both time lags and cumulative growth

effects of improving market access over time.

Figure 28:  Causal Factors Driving Economic Growth (GRP) Impacts of ADHS Completion

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

Note: All values are in constant 2015 dollars. Millions of dollars
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Economic Impacts by Industry

The estimated industry mix of jobs and GRP impactsfor ADHS system completion isshown in Table 21 and

Figure 29. In general, the most affected industries (in terms of jobs and GRP) are those with the highest

underlying growth rates and the greatestsensitivity to the relative costs of transportation or access to the

enhanced labor and supply markets enabled by ADHS. The table shows a continuation of the historical

effect of ADHS introduced in chapter 3, whereby the ADHS facilitates the most significant growth in

Appalachia’s service and knowledge economy, with professional and business services, education and

healthcare, and financial services among the sectors most stimulated by the system.

Table 21:  Projected 2045 Employment and GRP Impact due to ADHS Completion, by Industry

Industry

Added Jobs Added GRP *

(Compared to No ADHS) (in $ millions/year)

Professional and Business Services 14,619 $974.4

Leisure and Hospitality (Tourism) 6,249 $385.5

Education and Health Services 5,405 $348.4

Financial Activities 4,264 $853.7

Retail Trade 3,520 $291.7

Manufacturing 3,041 $398.1

Warehousing 2,735 $165.0

Transportation 2,358 $171.5

Construction 1,453 $86.9

Wholesale Trade 1,038 $164.7

Media and Information 836 $147.5

Agriculture and Extraction 622 $138.2

Utilities 489 $97.0

Government 219 $13.2

Total in Year 2045 46,849 $4,236

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

*Note: All values are in constant 2015 dollars.
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Figure 29:  Top Economic Sectors Impacted Due to ADHS Completion (in Millions of Dollars of GRP)

Source:  Analysis by EDR Group using the TREDIS economic impact model for the 13 Appalachian states.

  

Benefit-Cost Analysis 

This section presents the results of a return‐on‐investment analysis that compares the benefits of system

completion, with remaining investment costs. Following the standards of traditional benefit‐cost analysis,

the benefits are measured in terms of their “social valuation”—representing financial gains (for actual

cost savings), productivity gains (for business activity) and “willingness to pay” valuation for non‐money

benefits including personal time, safety, and the environment. Further impacts on attracting greater

economic investment and growth into the economy are not included (except when viewed as a separate

regional perspective analysis). These benefits are compared to construction and operating costs over

time, and expressed in terms of their discounted net present values. Overall, the analysis shows that

completing the ADHS can provide benefits equivalent to approximately four times the cost when benefits

are carried out to 2075 (allowing for a 30‐year life after 2045 completion) and discounted at seven

percent.  

Cost Estimates and Assumptions

Table 22 shows the estimated completion dates and cost to complete the remaining ADHS corridor

projects. While the baseline scenario of the benefit‐cost analysis presumes a 2045 completion date, an

alternative scenario is also considered with an accelerated 2035 completion date (discussed further in

section 4.6).    
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Table 23 respectively show the construction outlays by year for each of these scenarios.  

Table 22:  Estimated Corridor Completion Under Accelerated and Non‐Accelerated Schedules

Corridor Name State

Estimated

Completion Year

(2045 or sooner)

Accelerated Schedule

Completion Year

(2035 or sooner)

Estimated Cost

(Undiscounted)

$M

Corridor H West Virginia 2042 2035 $810.0

Virginia 2026 2026 $138.3

Corridor K Tennessee 2025 2025 $535.5

North Carolina 2028 2028 $760.5

Corridor M Pennsylvania 2045* 2035 $1,477.1

Corridor N Pennsylvania 2045* 2035 $510.1

Maryland 2022    2022 $183.9

Corridor Q Virginia 2021 2021 $474.1

Kentucky 2019 2019 $371.2

Corridor X1 Alabama 2045 2035 $2,966.4

Other Corridors Multiple States varies varies $2,687.7

All Corridors Multiple States varies Varies $10,914.8

*Pennsylvania DOT currently has no plans to complete this corridor, so the year 2045 was assumed for analysis

purposes only.

Source:  Appalachian Development Highway System Cost‐to‐Complete Report (2012) and Completion Plan Report

(2013).

   
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Table 23:  ADHS Corridor Construction Project Outlays by Year Under 2045 and Accelerated Scenarios

Year

Completion by 2045

Capital Cost

Accelerated Completion by 2035

Capital Cost

(Undiscounted $M) (Undiscounted $M)

2015 $0.0 $0.0

2016 $399.0 $399.0

2017 $432.0 $432.0

2018 $520.7 $520.7

2019 $538.4 $538.4

2020 $343.7 $529.1

2021 $310.7 $496.1

2022 $231.7 $417.1

2023 $220.3 $519.3

2024 $220.3 $519.3

2025 $157.3 $576.3

2026 $142.8 $561.8

2027 $108.2 $527.2

2028 $108.2 $527.2

2029 $39.1 $562.3

2030 $185.4 $523.3

2031 $185.4 $523.3

2032 $259.0 $685.6

2033 $372.7 $685.6

2034 $372.7 $685.6

2035 $419.0 $685.6

2036 $475.2 $0.0

2037 $475.2 $0.0

2038 $475.2 $0.0

2039 $539.0 $0.0

2040 $539.0 $0.0

2041 $539.0 $0.0

2042 $685.6 $0.0

2043 $540.1 $0.0

2044 $540.1 $0.0

2045 $540.1 $0.0
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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Benefit‐Cost Analysis Results

Benefit‐cost analysis results are presented from both a regional and a national perspective.  

 Regional Perspective: This includes only the share of transportation efficiency gains that

accrue within the Appalachian Region, and also include the economic development gains

to the Region associated with both local productivity and inward investment.

 National Perspective: Thisincludes all transportation efficiency gains accruing in the United

States, but only includes market access gains that result in national productivity gains

(about 22 percent of market access effects). Market access gains attributable to inward

investment and business in‐migration to Appalachia (about 78 percent of market access

effects) are shown in the regional perspective only.

Table 24 shows that from the national perspective, ADHS completion is expected to generate societal

benefits 3.7 times its cost (when discounted at 7 percent) and even higher when a smaller discount rate

is assumed. From the regional perspective, benefits are approximately 2.7 times the costs when

discounted at 7 percent.

Table 24:  Benefit‐Cost Analysis of ADHS Completion by 2045 (Present Value)*

Benefit and Cost Elements

Regional Perspective National Perspective

with 3%

discount rate

with 7%

discount rate

with 3%

discount rate

with 7%

discount rate

Vehicle Operating Cost Savings $3,195   $1,053   $5,042   $1,659  

Travel Time Saved $16,919   $5,602   $26,069   $8,622  

Reliability Time Saved $4,830   $1,589   $7,692   $2,526  

Safety Benefit   $1,914   $637   $2,853   $950  

Environmental & Emissions Benefit $804   $223   $1,292   $358  

Logistics and Supply Chain Savings $3,073   $986   $5,566   $1,786  

Market Access (Productivity Gain)   $4,993   $1,994   $1,049   $419  

Total Cumulative Benefits   $35,727   $12,083   $49,563   $16,320  

Total Cumulative Costs $7,005 $4,471   $7,005   $4,471  

Benefit‐Cost Ratio 5.1 2.7 7.1 3.7

*Note: All values are net present values of cost or benefit streams covering the period of 2016‐2075, using the

specified 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate, and presented in terms of their 2015 value (millions of dollars)

The effect of changing the discount rate assumption (consistent with U.S. DOT guidance) is considerable,

due to the disproportionate share of benefits associated with Corridor X1 in particular (which is not

anticipated for completion until 2045). With X1 accounting for over 36 percent of total investment costs,

a significant reduction in the discounting of these long‐term benefits (accruing between 2045 and 2075)

causes the lower discount rate to greatly magnify benefits in present‐value terms. Consequently, the 7

percent discount rate may be more useful in reflecting effects of completing the overall system,

accounting for the value of the likely time it will take before the benefits of X1 are expected to occur. The

Appendix shows the benefit and cost streams by year supporting Table 24 which accounts for specific

sources of benefit, phasing of project costs, traffic growth rates, and other temporal aspects of the

benefit‐cost ratio.
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Accelerating ADHS Completion 

This section explores the effect of accelerating ADHS completion. It presents effects of a hypothetical

analysis in which it is assumed that all ADHS corridors are completed by 2035 rather than 2045. The

purpose is to assess potential gains associated with competing the ADHS sooner (as could be

accomplished if more funding was made available sooner).  Alternatively, it can be viewed as showing the

lost economic opportunities associated with delay and longer time required to complete the system.

It is important to note that some of the corridors are expected to be completed by 2035 anyway, so the

hypothetical acceleration scenario only accelerates projects that would otherwise take longer to

complete.  The specific completion yearsthat were assumed for each major unfinished corridor are shown

in preceding Table 22.  

The analysis findings are that accelerating the completion of ADHS from 2045 to 2035 can enable benefits

to accrue more quickly than would be the case if implementation were to occur on the 2045 schedule

presumed throughout thisreport. By completing the ADHS sooner, the Region can experience significantly

more benefits in the near term. Table 25 demonstrates how acceleration would allow the Region to

experience nearly $8 billion in additional undiscounted cumulative benefits by 2035 in comparison to a

scenario that would not complete the ADHS until 2045. Figure 30 shows how acceleration speeds the

development of societal benefits to the year 2045. Further information on benefit and cost streams, as

well as year by year phasing assumptions, are shown in the Appendix.

Table 25:  Comparative Benefits of 2035 Completion vs. 2045 Completion (Undiscounted $M)

Benefit and Cost Elements

Cumulative Value

(2015‐2035)

Cumulative Value

(2015‐2035)

2045 Completion 2035 Completion

Vehicle Operating Cost Savings $820 $1,537

Travel Time Saved $4,396 $8,231

Reliability Time Saved $1,231 $2,315

Safety Benefit   $505 $944

Environmental and Emissions Benefit $125 $243

Logistics and Supply Chain Savings $732 $1,382

Market Access (Productivity Gain)   $2,511 $3,497

Total Cumulative Benefits   $10,320 $18,149
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Figure 30:  Development of Benefits 2035 Completion vs. 2045 Completion

Table 26 shows the annual economic impact for the 2045 ADHS completion and the accelerated

completion to 2035. The table shows that by 2035 the Region is estimated to gain over 11,000 more jobs

as a result of accelerating completion of ADHS, as well as over $1 billion more in GRP and more than $2

billion in additional annual business sales (output).  

Table 26: Economic Impacts of Completing ADHS

Economic Impacts of Completing ADHS

Annual Impact in 2035

(2045 Completion)

Annual Impact in 2035

(Accelerated)

Employment Impact of ADHS 38,502 49,700

Business Output Impact of ADHS $6,299 $8,439

Value Added (GRP) Impact of ADHS $3,056 $4,111

Wage Income Impact of ADHS $1,913 $2,592

 ‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

Cumulative Benefits (2015—2035)

2045 Completion 2035 Completion
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5 Corridor Level Analyses 

Overview and Methodology 

Overview. While chapter 4 examined the system‐wide transportation and economic effects of ADHS

completion, this chapter examines the local and regional effects of individual corridor improvements. This

focus on individual corridors has two important uses. First, it provides a more complete insight into the

local and regional context for ADHS completion, by identifying the range of opportunities, benefits and

challengesfacing individual corridor projects. Second, it provides new estimates of the economic impacts,

benefits and costs of completing the largest remaining corridor projects.

This chapter focuses on five ADHS corridorsthat remain unfinished and account for 75 percent of the total

estimated cost for the ADHS system’s completion. They are corridors H, K, N, Q and X1. (Refer to corridor

map in chapter 4 to see their locations within the ADHS). For each of the five corridors, the text covers

the following:

 A description of the corridor and its state of completion—drawn from ARC records;

 A discussion of expected local and regional effects of corridor completion based on interviews

with regional stakeholders;

 Findings on expected transportation system performance benefits and costs associated with

ADHS corridor completion–based on regional transportation modeling; and

 Findings on expected economic impacts of corridor completion–based on regional economic

impact modeling.  

This form of presentation is necessarily repetitive, since the same four parts are repeated for each of the

five corridors. Readers who are interested in specific corridors may therefore wish to read just the section

covering that corridor. Readers who are interested in overall system‐wide analysis may skip this chapter

entirely and move on to the study conclusions in chapter 6.  

Methodology. The descriptive statistics about corridors – including project cost, completion status and

completion plans – are drawn from: (a) Appalachian Development Highway System Cost‐to‐Complete

Report, 2012, (b) ADHS Completion Plan Report, 2013, (c) ADHS Status Report, 2015, and (d) ADHS web

site ( www.eadhs.org ), which includes the ADHS Information Management System.

The discussion of expected local and regional effects draws from interviews with ARC staff and

representatives of local organizations that included economic developers, transportation planners,

engineers, county administrators, business organizations, academics, and non‐profit institutions. The

interviews were not designed to be comprehensive in coverage, but rather to provide insight to validate

the reasonableness of transportation and economic model results, and aid in their interpretation.

Accordingly, the interviews focused on perceptions of project need, importance, and expectations

regarding potential economic opportunities and impacts associated with the project. The interviewees

are noted in the Acknowledgements page at the front of the report.  
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The transportation benefit results are framed in terms of aggregate travel time, cost, reliability, and safety

benefits across the Region’s road networks. This is important, because the ADHS serves to connect the

Region with much broader networks of county, state, and Interstate highways. Thus, the total

transportation benefits of completing any individual ADHS corridor will include both: (a) benefits of faster,

more reliable and safer travel for those already using the existing highway, and (b) benefits for travelers

who would otherwise be on other roads—including other county roads and minor arterial roadways—as

routesto access major market centers and outside destinations. Thistransportation benefit analysis draws

from the same travel network modeling process that was used to assess system‐wide impacts in chapter

4, and the results represent transportation benefits across the 13 Appalachian states.  

The economic impact results are framed in terms of aggregate jobs, wages, GRP (value added) and

business output impacts for all industries on a region‐wide scale. This is also important, since the ADHS

network connections serve to reduce costs and enhance productivity across the Region. Thus, the total

economic growth impacts of completing any individual ADHS corridor will include consequences of both:

(a) improved competitiveness for businesses located in counties directly served by the highway corridor,

and (b) improved competitiveness for businesses that are located further away but also stand to benefit

because theirsupplier and customershipments can be more efficient and cost effective with the improved

highway in place.  The average wage rate for new jobs, measured in terms of personal income generated

per new job, is also shown to indicate cases where the highway completion will generate particularly high

paying jobs.  

This economic impact analysis draws from the same regional economic model modeling process that was

used to assess region‐wide impacts in chapter 4, and the results represent economic impacts across the

13 Appalachian states. All economic impact values are presented for a single year, which is ten years

following highway completion. All values are shown in constant 2015 dollars.

Interpretation. It is important to note that all of the projected transportation benefits and economic

development impacts of ADHS corridor completion are based on assumptions that over the next 30 years,

there will be: (a) continued efforts to address job training and local infrastructure development needs

within the Region, and (b) continued statewide and national economic growth that will provide a basis for

regional business attraction and development over this period. The local interviews consistently raised

the point that the ADHS projects can complement and build upon those other economic development

efforts, and the economic impact model projections implicitly incorporate that assumption.

   
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Corridor H—West Virginia and Virginia 

Characteristics of Corridor H and Its State of Completion

Routes: U.S. 33, U.S. 48, State Route 55   

Total length:   146.1 miles   

Unbuilt segments: 55.4 miles   

Completion year:   2026 (Virginia), 2042 (West Virginia)  

Estimated Cost:   $ 948.3 million  

Corridor H runs from I‐81 at Strasburg (VA) to the state line near Wardensville and further to I‐79 at

Weston (WV), as shown in Figure 31.  

The unbuilt segments include:   

(1) U.S. 48/55 in Strasburg at the intersection of I‐81/I‐66 in Shenandoah County (VA) and from

Strasburg to Wardensville in Hardy County (WV).

(2) U.S. 33/55 between Harrisonburg (WV) and the National Forest border close to Elkins (WV) in

Tucker County.

Projects underway to further complete this corridor include:

In Virginia:  

 Location Study Phase for 14.4 miles

In West Virginia:  

 Supplemental Final Environmental Impact Statement (SFEIS) under way from CR 31 north of

Parsons to SR 32 east of Davis.  

 Location approved by ARC and FHWA from SR 55 west of Wardensville to the Virginia State line.  

 Final design and ROW acquisition from CR 7 northeast of Elkins to CR 31 north of Parsons.  

 Construction on a section from SR 32 of Davis in Tucker County to West of WV 93 near

Grant/Tucker County Line.

Currently, over 70 percent of the authorized Corridor H mileage is open to traffic (either completed or in

the final stage of completion) (as shown in Figure 32).  
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Figure 31:  Map of Corridor H Area

Figure 32:  Length of Corridor H by Status (Authorized)

Source: ADHS Status Report, September 2015

Expected Local and Regional Effects of Corridor H Completion

Completion of Corridor H is expected to increase road capacity, travel speeds, reliability, and safety, while

reducing travel times. Trip distance will remain approximately the same for those using the same corridor

but is also expected to recapture truck trips(in particular) that currently use more circuitousroutes. Based

on observations of prior segment completion and how various businesses have benefitted, completing

access from West Virginia to Virginia (and vice versa) is also expected to support local business expansion.

The current two‐lane road configuration raises safety concerns and creates bottlenecks where the four‐

lane corridor abuts with the two‐lane segment. The current configuration also results in slower speeds

89.8 0.9 10.8 14.9 29.7

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

miles

Completed

Remaining Stage Construction

Construction Under Way

Design & ROW Stage

Location Study Stage
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and higher travel times on the corridor. There is an awareness among interviewees that a balance needs

to be achieved between commerce and the natural/scenic assets of the area.

Local interviews indicate that the highway corridor completion is expected to improve business and job

markets in many ways. Local businesses expect to gain access to a broader labor market, and working‐age

residents living along the corridor expect gain more job access opportunities. Area manufacturers see

gainsfrom the enhanced connectivity to I‐81 and I‐66 east and the Virginia Inland Port at Front Royal (VA).

The economic gains come from reduced transportation costs as well as enlargement of customer delivery

markets and further export market opportunities. Quality of life for residents is expected to increase with

improved regional access to specialized medical services and regional retail destinations in western

Virginia. It is also expected to enable weekend trip tourism from the DC‐Baltimore region to ski resorts

and other visitor attractions, as well as additional pass‐through tourism trips to destinations further west.

Completing Corridor H is considered an important project for economic development in West Virginia.

Transportation Benefits and Costs of Corridor H Completion

The travel modeling estimates that completion of Corridor H will produce savings in both travel distances

(reflected in reduced VMT, or vehicle‐miles of travel) and travel times (reflected in reduced VHT, or

vehicle‐hours of travel), as shown in Table 27. A savings of over 205,000 vehicle‐miles per day is expected.

Apart from a small reduction of the alignment length of the new segment, slightly shorter trip lengths are

expected because the new segment allows a higherspeed and will therefore attract traffic that today uses

longer (but currently faster) routes. The higher speed on Corridor H leads to travel time savings of VHT of

just over 20,000 hours per day. Gains in travel time reliability enable additional savings of more than

14,000 hours of “buffer time”—the schedule padding done by time‐sensitive travelers to allow for arrival

time uncertainty.  

Table 27:  Corridor H Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability

Savings VMT (miles per day) VHT (hours per day) Reliability (hours per day)

Year Car Truck Total Car Truck Total Car Truck Total

2040 182,029 23,483 205,512 18,352 2,368 20,720 13,515 1,271 14,705

Source: EDR Group analysis using consolidated travel models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and Federal

Highway Statistics  

Besides the travel time and travel cost savings, additional safety benefits are expected as a consequence

of a less winding route, with passing lanes and shoulders. There will also be business logistics and market

access productivity gains for non‐travelers. Figure 33 compares the discounted present value of future

cost and benefit streams associated with corridor H completion. The discounted present value of all

benefits sums to a total of $761 million, compared to a cost of $278 million (based on a discount rate of 7

percent). The result of the benefit‐cost analysis is a favorable benefit/cost ratio of 2.7 (meaning that

benefits are estimated to be 2.7 times larger than costs) and a net present value benefit of $483 million

for Corridor H. With a lower discount rate of 3 percent, the benefit‐cost ratio rises to 4.8.  
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

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Figure 33:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor H Completion (7 percent discount rate)

Economic Impacts of Corridor H Completion

The economic impact projections of Corridor H completion are shown in Table 28. Completion of corridor

H is forecast to generate annual economic growth representing about 1,850 added jobs and $166 million

per year of additional GRP. The industry composition of the additional jobs is shown in Figure 34. Roughly

one quarter of the new jobs are expected to be in professional and business services, and another quarter

of the jobs are expected to be in tourism and associated retail sectors. Other notable sectors that are also

expected to gain include technical services and specialty manufacturing (including wood products).

Table 28:  Corridor H Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  

($M) ($)

Output (sales) $352   

Value Added (GRP) $166 Value Added per job $89,508

Income   $104 Income per Job $56,026

Jobs

Employment 1,852   
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Figure 34:  Corridor H: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  

Figure 35:  Summary of Corridor H Completion Impacts

   
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Corridor K—Tennessee and North Carolina 

Characteristics of Corridor K and Its State of Completion   

Routes: U.S. 19, State Route 40, U.S. 64, U.S. 74, State Route 311   

Total length:   127.7 miles   

Unbuilt segment: 46.2 miles   

Completion year:   2025 (Tennessee), 2028 (North Carolina)

Estimated Cost:   $1,296.0 million  

Corridor K runs from Corridor A at Sylva (NC) to Wolf Creek at the State line and further to I‐75 in

Cleveland (TN) as shown in Figure 36.  

Figure 36:  Map of Corridor K Area

The unbuilt segments include:

(1) U.S. Highway 64 through the Ocoee Gorge in Polk County (TN).

(2) an 11‐mile segment between Robbinsville and Stecoah with an eventual improvement between

Andrews and Robbinsville in Graham County (NC).

Projects underway to further complete this corridor include:

 In Tennessee: Location/Environmental study to establish an alternate route for a 14.1‐mile

section of the corridor along U.S. 64/74 (SR‐40) near the Ocoee River and Ocoee Lake to

Ducktown.
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 In North Carolina: Location study and preliminary engineering is underway for the

section from Robbinsville to Stecoah.  

Currently, three‐quarters of the authorized Corridor K mileage is open to traffic, while one quarter is still

unbuilt or unfinished (as shown in Figure 37).

Figure 37:  Length of Corridor K in North Carolina and Tennessee by Status (Authorized)

Source: ADHS Status Report, September 2015

Expected Local and Regional Effects of Corridor K Completion

Completion of Corridor K is expected to have significant impacts on road capacity, travelspeeds,reliability,

and safety. The current two‐lane road is mountainous, narrow and curving which raises the risk of crashes

and susceptibility to rock slides. The current two‐lane road configuration also raises concerns regarding

both safety and bottleneck delays that occur where four‐lane section turns to two lanes.  

Segment completion is expected to enhance truck logistics and delivery access westward to Chattanooga,

TN and eastward to Asheville NC, as well as to the ports of Charleston (SC) and Norfolk (VA). Local Truck

manufacturers will be able to reach existing markets more quickly and reap travel cost savings. They are

further expected to gain an increase in domestic exports from the improved port access.

Improved access to specialized medical services and regional retail destinations in western Virginia is

expected to benefit area residents. Local business expects to have a broader labor market and working‐

age households will expect to have increased job access opportunities, particularly in the direction of

Chattanooga.  

Access to and through this area is currently a challenge for residents, tourists, and local employers.

Topographical barriers constrain access to other parts of the two states and to surrounding states. This

limits tourism growth as well as other types of commercial opportunities for the area. A local concern is

that, without improvement to Corridor K, future tourism traffic may decline as commercial vehicle traffic

continues to grow. For parts of the area, there is no road redundancy in any direction and there has been

a history of road closuresin one or all directions due to landslides and fallen trees. The lack of connections

is currently affecting businesses making site selection decisions throughout the Region including in

Chattanooga and Asheville.  

There is significant local concern about the environmental impact of various proposed locations for

Corridor K. The currently unimproved section of Corridor K goes through the Cherokee National Forest,

an environmentally sensitive area that constrains highway development options. There is an awareness

81.5 14.0 32.2

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Remaining Stage Construction

Construction Under Way

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among interviewees that a balance needs to be achieved between commerce and the natural/scenic

assets of the area. For this reason, local stakeholders have been discussing safety, economic and

environmental tradeoffs involved in adopting various options for highway alignment and design.

Transportation Benefits and Costs of Corridor K Completion

The travel modeling estimates that completion of Corridor K will lead to savings in travel times and

reliability, with a measurable change in travel distances. Most notably, a savings of nearly 226,000 vehicle‐

miles per day is expected from completion of the corridor (Table 29). Beyond a small reduction of the

alignment length of the new segment, shorter trip lengths are expected because the new segment allows

a higherspeed and therefore attractstraffic that today useslonger, but currently faster,routes. The higher

speed of the new segment will lead to VMT savings of more than 226,000 hours per day. Gainsin reliability

will enable more than 16,000 additional hourssaved by reducing the need for buffering schedulesto allow

for arrival time uncertainty.  

Table 29:  Corridor K Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability

Savings VMT (miles per day) VHT (hours per day) Reliability (hours per day)

Year Car Truck Total Car Truck Total Car Truck Total

2040 200,152 25,815 225,967 20,177 2,603 22,780 14,904 1,307 16,211

Source: EDR Group Analysis using consolidated travel models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and Federal

Highway Statistics  

Besides the travel time savings, there are also substantial benefits from (a) logistics and supply chain

savings, and (b) productivity gains from improved market access (agglomeration effect). Further safety

benefits will be enabled by less winding routes and the addition of passing lanes and shoulders. Figure 38

compares the discounted present value of future cost and benefit streams associated with Corridor K

completion. The discounted present value of all benefits sums to a total of $1.623 billion, compared to a

cost of $887 million (based on a discount rate of 7 percent). The result of the benefit‐cost analysis is a

favorable benefit‐cost ratio of 1.8 and a positive net present value of $736 million for Corridor K. With a

lower discount rate of 3 percent, the benefit‐cost ratio rises to 3.3.  
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Figure 38:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor K Completion (7 percent discount rate)

Economic Impacts of Corridor K Completion

The economic impact projections of Corridor K completion are shown in Table 30. Altogether, the

expected annual economic impacts are $453 million/year in annual business output and 2,368 jobs. Figure

39 shows the industry mix of the new jobs. Nearly one‐third of the jobs will be in tourism, hospitality, and

related retail sectors. Nearly one‐fifth will be in professional and business services. A smaller number of

jobs are projected to be in other economic sectors, including warehousing and freight transportation, as

well as manufacturing (largely focused on technology products).

Table 30:  Corridor K Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  

($M) ($)

Output (sales) $453   

Value Added (GRP) $205 Value Added per job $86,776

Income $135 Income per Job $56,940

Output (sales) Jobs

Employment (GRP) 2,368   
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Figure 39:  Corridor K: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  

Figure 40:  Overview of Corridor K Completion Impacts  

   
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Corridor N—Pennsylvania and Maryland 

Characteristics of Corridor N and Its State of Completion    

Route:   U.S. 219   

Length:   54.4 miles  

Unbuilt segment: 20.9 miles   

Completion year:   2022 (Maryland), To be determined (Pennsylvania)  

Estimated Cost:   $ 694 million  

Corridor N runs from the junction with Corridor M (U.S. 22) near Ebensburg (PA) to the state line near

Salisbury (PA) and further to the junction with Corridor E at Grantsville (MD) as shown in Figure 41.  

The unbuilt segment is U.S. 219 between Meyersdale (PA) and the junction with Corridor E at Grantsville

(MD). It would provide the affected parts of Somerset County (PA) and Garrett County (MD) with improved

travel north to the PA Turnpike (toward Pittsburgh or Harrisburg), as well as to Corridor(s) M (toward

Altoona) and O (toward State College), and south to I‐68 E/W (Corridor E) and I‐70 E.  

Figure 41:  Map of Corridor N Area

Maryland DOT and Pennsylvania DOT have initiated joint project planning activities for the full length of

U.S. 219, from I‐68 in Maryland to just south of Meyersdale, Pennsylvania. Projects underway to further

complete this corridor include:
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 In Maryland: Planning and Environmental Linkage (PEL) Study on a 7.0‐mile section from I‐68 in

Maryland to Meyersdale.

 In Pennsylvania: Construction (earthwork and structures) underway on section from Meyersdale

north to just south of the Pennsylvania Turnpike.  

Currently, more than 60 percent of the authorized Corridor N mileage is open to traffic, while 40 percent

is still unbuilt or unfinished (as shown in Figure 37).

Figure 42:  Length of Corridor N by Status (Authorized)

Source: ADHS Status Report, Sep 2015

Expected Local and Regional Effects of Corridor N Completion

Completion of Corridor N is expected to improve travelspeed, reliability, and safety. The current two‐lane

road configuration raises concerns regarding safety as well as bottleneck delays occurring in places where

four‐lane segments of the corridor meet the two‐lane segments. The current roads weren’t designed to

handle the heavy‐duty trucks that now travel the four‐lane segment (that enters from Cambria and stops

just south of the PA Turnpike). Commercial vehicles instead use I‐68 E/W as a diversion to U.S. 219 to

connect to the Pennsylvania Turnpike. This added mileage increases transportation costs. The upgrade

will eliminate these road performance problems, thus benefitting residents, local businesses, and tourists.

Some environmental concerns exist but options are on the table to minimize adverse effects.

Local interviews indicate that both households and businesses stand to gain, which is important in the

face of coal mining job losses in the area. Resident workers can gain broader job access to the north.

Manufacturers may be able to expand their delivery markets. Fracking activity may also find a logistics

benefit with improved travel. Traffic from the Port of Baltimore headed to Pittsburgh or Erie Pennsylvania,

or to Ohio can also gain a faster, non‐toll travel option once Corridor N is completed. There is also a

potential for growth in tourism given the size of the Baltimore‐DC market that is two hours to the east.  

Transportation Benefits and Costs of Corridor N Completion

The travel estimates that completion of Corridor N will reduce travel mileage and save travel time (Table

31). VMT is projected to be reduced by roughly 87,000 miles per day. Beyond a small reduction of the

alignment length of the new segment, shorter trip lengths are expected because the new segment allows

a higher speed and therefore attracts traffic that today uses longer, but still currently faster routes. The

higher speed of the new segment will lead to travel time savings (VHT) of 8,700 hours per day. Gains in

reliability of the network will also enable savings of more than 6,000 hours of “buffer time” savings,

associated with padding schedules to allow for arrival time uncertainty.

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Table 31:  Corridor N Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability

Savings VMT (miles per day) VHT (hours per day) Reliability (hours per day)

Year Car Truck Total Car Truck Total Car Truck Total

2040 76,975 9,925 86,899 7,760 1,001 8,761 5,698 506 6,204

Source: EDR Group Analysis using consolidated travel models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and Federal

Highway Statistics  

The benefits of Corridor N completion consist of travel time and cost savings, safety and environment

benefits, and wider economic benefits(logistics and market access productivity gains). Figure 43 compares

the present value of future cost and benefit streams associated with Corridor N completion. The

discounted present value of benefits sum to a total of $373 million compared to a cost of $239 million

(discount rate of 7 percent). Because improvements of Corridor N are scheduled to finish by 2021, the

present value of costs is not much lower than the undiscounted total expected cost. The result of the

benefit‐cost analysis is a favorable benefit‐cost ratio of 1.6 and a net benefit of $134 million for Corridor

N. With a lower discount rate of 3 percent, the benefit‐cost ratio rises to 2.9.

Figure 43:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor N Completion (7 percent discount rate)

Economic Impacts of Corridor N Completion

The economic impact projections of Corridor N (by the tenth year following project completion) are shown

in Table 32. Altogether, the expected annual economic impacts total $125 million/year in output and 700

jobs. Figure 44  shows the industry mix of the new jobs. Notably, over one‐third of the jobs will be in

tourism, hospitality, and retail. Another one‐quarter of the jobs will be in the high growth sector of
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professional and business services. A smaller number of jobs are expected to gain in the specialty

manufacturing sector (e.g., metal and wood related products).  

Table 32:  Corridor N Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  

($M) ($)

Output (sales) $125   

Value Added (GRP) $61   Value Added per job $87,141

Income   $39   Income per Job $55,661

Jobs

Employment 700   

Figure 44:  Corridor N: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  

Figure 45:  Summary of Corridor N Completion Impacts

   
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Corridor Q—Virginia and Kentucky 

Characteristics of Corridor Q and Its State of Completion    

Routes:   U.S. 460 / State Route 80   

Total length:   163.6 miles   

Unbuilt segment: 23.9 miles   

Completion year:   2019 (Kentucky), 2021 (Virginia)   

Estimated Cost:   $ 845.3 million  

Corridor Q runs from I‐81 at Christiansburg to Breaks Interstate Park (VA) / Elkhorn City (KY) at the state

line and further to Corridor B (U.S. 23) at Shelbiana, KY (near Pikeville) as shown in Figure 46.  

The unbuilt segments include:

(1) Pike County, KY, connecting near Pikesville to Corridors B (U.S. 23), G and F (U.S. 119).  

(2) Buchanan County (VA), segment just east of the Kentucky line.

Projects underway to further complete this corridor include:

 In Kentucky, (a) final construction is complete on five sections (with the exception of

surfacing) and has begun on two other sections, and (b) the design phase for three

sections is complete, and is near completion for the following: Section 7A‐2, Ramp at

Beaver Creek near Elkhorn City; and surfacing for four sections.

 In Virginia, construction of an approximately 6.5‐mile section near the Kentucky State

Line.  

Figure 46:  Map of Corridor Q Area
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Currently, 85 percent of the authorized Corridor Q mileage is open to traffic, while 15 percent is still

unbuilt or unfinished (as shown in Figure 47) but most of the project is under construction with near‐term

completion dates (2019 in Kentucky, 2021 in Virginia).  

Figure 47:  Length of Corridor Q by Status (Authorized)

Source: ADHS Status Report, Sep 2015

Expected Local and Regional Effects of Corridor Q Completion

Completion of Corridor Q is expected to improve road capacity, speeds, reliability, and safety, while

reducing travel times. Trip distances are likely to remain relatively unchanged, though. The current 60‐

minute trip between Pikeville, KY and Grundy, VA is expected to become about 40 minutes, and the

Elkhorn City trip to Pikeville would be reduced from 40 minutes to 25 minutes after improvements. The

current two‐lane road is mountainous, slow and without passing capability, curving and unsafe, so

Corridor Q is also expected to improve safety.  

The 2016 Cumberland Plateau Planning District Commission’s Comprehensive Economic Development

Strategy points to several barriers to economic growth that could be overcome with corridor completion.

With the project, resident working‐age households would have broader job access. Breaks Interstate Park

straddles the state border and tourist visits are expected to increase as a consequence of improved travel

conditions. The proposed project has become more important over the years due to the dramatic

contraction in coal mining and the loss of jobs this area has experienced. A completed Corridor Q can help

to achieve a new industry mix. In addition to completing Corridor Q, interviewees also stressed that the

Coalfields Expressway (CFX) which links the 4‐county region to I‐77 and U.S. 23 (Corridor B) needs to be

completed as well. Together, these investments are expected to reduce travel times, thus facilitating

goods movement within and through the Region, opening the area to additional tourism, and helping to

reverse the Region’s current population and employment decline. CFX and Corridor Q will also provide

important links to a broader network of highways that promotes trade and job growth within the multi‐

state Appalachian Region and the nation.  

Transportation Benefits and Costs of Corridor Q Completion

The completion of Corridor Q would provide transportation benefits such as reduced mileage and travel

time savings (Table 33). VMT is estimated to be reduced by 157,000 Miles per day. Apart from a small

reduction of the alignment length of the new segment, shorter trip lengths are assumed because the new

segment allows a higher speed and therefore attracts traffic that today uses longer, but at present faster,

routes. The higher speed of the new segment leads to travel time savings (VHT) of almost 16,000 hours

139.7 15.2 8.4 0.3

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per day. Gains in reliability of the network enable additional savings of more than 11,000 hours of “buffer

time” savings by reducing the need for padding schedules to allow for arrival time uncertainty.  

Table 33:  Corridor Q Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability

Savings VMT (miles per day) VHT (hours per day)

Reliability (hours per

day)

Year Car Truck Total Car Truck Total Car Truck Total

2040 139,595   18,010   157,605 14,071 1,815 15,886 1,035 911 11,285

Source: EDR Group Analysis using consolidated travel models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and Federal

Highway Statistics  

The benefits of Corridor Q completion consist of travel time and cost savings, as discussed above, along

with safety benefits (from less winding roads with directional lanes and shoulders) and wider economic

benefits (logistics and market access productivity gains). Figure 48 comparesthe discounted present value

of these benefits to the cost of Corridor Q completion (capital investment, operation, and maintenance

cost), all discounted at a rate of 7 percent and shows the resulting benefit/cost ratio. The benefits sum to

a total of $1.458 billion compared to a discounted cost of $739 million. The result of the benefit‐cost

analysisis a benefit‐costratio of 2.0 and a net benefit of $719 million for Corridor Q.  With a lower discount

rate of 3 percent, the benefit‐cost ratio rises to 3.4.
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Figure 48:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor Q Completion (7 percent discount rate)

Economic Impacts of Corridor Q Completion

The economic impact projections of Corridor Q completion are shown in Table 34. Altogether, the

expected annual economic impacts total $201 million/year in output and 987 jobs. Figure 49 shows the

industry mix of the new jobs. Notably, nearly half of the projected new jobs will be in either tourism‐

related activities, or in professional and business services. The next largest category is “other”—which

include energy resource and telecommunications related activities.  

Table 34:  Corridor Q Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  

($M) ($)

Output (sales) $201   

Value Added (GRP) $97 Value Added per job $98,607

Income   $61 Income per Job $61,604

Jobs

Employment 987   
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Figure 49:  Corridor Q: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  

Figure 50:  Summary of Corridor Q Impacts Completion
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Corridor X1—Alabama 

Characteristics of Corridor X1 and Its State of Completion

Route: Birmingham Northern Beltline   

Total length:   65 miles   

Unbuilt segment: 65 miles   

Completion year:   2045   

Estimated Cost:   $ 2,966.4 million  

Corridor X1 in Alabama was added to ADHS by Section 123 of the FY 2004 Consolidated Appropriations

Act. Also referred to as the Birmingham Northern Beltline, this corridor extends approximately 65 miles

starting near I‐20/59, in the vicinity of I‐459 southwest of Birmingham. It extends northward crossing SR

269 and Corridor X (I‐22), continuing eastward across I‐65, U.S. 31, SR 79, SR75, I‐59, U.S. 11, U.S. 411, and

finally connecting to I‐20 to the east of Birmingham as shown in Figure 51.  

Figure 51:  Map of Corridor X1 Area
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The unbuilt segment represents the entire Birmingham Northern Beltline. This 65‐mile alignment is the

remaining northern half of what will become a complete beltway around the city of Birmingham. The

southern by‐pass (33 miles in length) opened in 1984 and runs from Trussville at I‐59 (east of the city) to

McCalla at I‐20 (southwest of the city).  

Currently, none of the authorized Corridor X1 mileage has been built (as shown in Figure 52). However,

work has begun on construction of a 3.2‐mile section from west of SR 79 to east of SR 75. The rest of the

mileage is in the Location Study stage or the Design stage.

Figure 52:  Length of Corridor X1 by Status (Authorized)

Source: ADHS Status Report, September 2015.

Expected Local and Regional Effects of Corridor X1 Completion

Completion of Corridor X1 is expected to provide a circumferential route that can help to reduce isolation

for parts of Northern Jefferson County, as well as reduce regional road congestion and enable economic

growth to the north of Birmingham, AL. Currently, congestion has grown worse around Birmingham with

Interstates 65, 59, and 20 converging in the downtown area. Northern Jefferson County has pockets of

inaccessibility, particularly for many disadvantaged communities. The Birmingham Northern Beltline is

expected to increase capacity, speeds, and reliability and to decrease travel time. Residents, commuters,

and area businesses, especially in the northern communities of Jefferson County, stand to benefit from

reduced delay. Corridor X1 will also provide better access to the Huntsville area and the Port of Huntsville

to the north, and various Gulf ports to the south. The proposed bypass will also provide greatly improved

highway access to a recently opened rail intermodal facility located in McCalla. Interviewees additionally

expect that the Port of Birmingham, an inland port on the Black Warrior River on the western edge of the

county, may attract new business since the truck route (269) that serves the facility would likely

interchange with Corridor X1.

Transportation Benefits and Costs of Corridor X1 Completion

The improvement in Corridor X1 will provide significant transportation efficiencies in the form of reduced

highway miles traveled and travel time savings (Table 35). VMT will be reduced by roughly 683,000 Miles

per day as travelers have new options for connectivity for local, regional and long‐distance trips (that no

longer need to travel into the heart of Birmingham). The higher speed of the new segment will lead to

travel time savings (VHT) of almost 69,000 hours per day. Gains in reliability of the network will enable

additional savings of almost 49,000 hours of “buffer time” savings by reducing the need for padding

schedules to allow for arrival time uncertainty.  

3.2 19.2 42.6

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

miles

Completed

Remaining Stage Construction

Construction Under Way

Design & ROW Stage

Location Study Stage
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Table 35:  Corridor X1 Completion: Savings in Miles Traveled, Travel Time, and Travel Reliability

Savings VMT (miles per day) VHT (hours per day) Reliability (hours per day)

Year Car Truck Total Car Truck Total Car Truck Total

2040 605,389 78,107 683,497 61,025 7,874 68,900 45,003 3,964 48,966

Source: EDR Group Analysis Using consolidated travel models compiled by Parsons Brinckerhoff, HPMS, and federal

highway Statistics  

The benefits of Corridor X1 completion consist of travel time and cost savings, as discussed above, plus

safety benefits and wider economic benefits (logistics and market access productivity gains). Figure 53

compares the discounted present value of these benefits and costs of Corridor X1 completion (capital

investment, operation, and maintenance cost). The market access enhancement effect is particularly large

for Corridor X1 as it will provide critical highway connectivity for a large metropolitan area of 1.2 million

residents that is also a major regional economic center and job generator.   

Altogether, the discounted present value of benefits sums to $3.078 billion, compared to a cost of

$727 million (based on a discount rate of 7 percent). With corridor construction not scheduled until the

more distant future, discounting leads to a considerably lower present value of future costs and benefits.

The result of the analysis is a benefit‐cost ratio of 4.2 and a net present value benefit of $2.351 billion for

Corridor X1. With a lower discount rate of 3 percent, the benefit‐cost ratio rises to over 6.

Figure 53:  Costs and Benefits of Corridor X1 Completion (7 percent discount rate)
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Economic Impacts of Corridor X1 Completion

The regional economic impact projectionsfor Corridor X1 (by the tenth year following project completion)

are shown in Table 36. Altogether, the expected annual economic impacts total $2.671 billion/year in

business output and 13,937 jobs. Figure 54 shows the industry mix of the new jobs. The two largest

categories, financial activities and professional and business services, each account for one‐fifth of the

jobs. The particularly high shares for these two industry categories can be explained by the more urban

location of Corridor X1. It also explains why projected income impacts are particularly high relative to jobs.

The projected average income per new job enabled by Corridor X1 is $61,691 (in 2015 dollars),

considerably higher than the Alabama statewide average ($49,524 for 2015).

Table 36:  Corridor X1 Economic Impacts (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  

($M) ($)

Output (sales) $2,671   

Value Added (GRP) $1,395 Value Added per job $100,102

Income   $860 Income per Job $61,691

Jobs

Employment 13,937   

Figure 54:  Corridor X1: Employment Impact by Industry Sector (annual, ten yrs. following completion)  
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Figure 55:  Summary of Corridor X1 Completion Impacts

Corridor Analysis Findings 

The corridor analyses presented in this chapter represent a wide range of different regions, in terms of

their scope, scale, location, topography, urban/rural status, and economic context. As a consequence,

there are differences among corridors in terms of the project costs, benefits, and economic impacts of

project completion. Despite these differences, a primary finding of the corridor analyses is that each

corridor is estimated to have benefits exceeding costs, meaning that there is a positive return on

investment (ROI) for these remaining corridor projects.   

The benefit and economic impact estimates that are generated for each corridor are based on a series of

assumptions noted at the beginning of this chapter, which include continued national growth over the

next 30 years and continued efforts at supporting non‐transportation (as well as transportation) factors

affecting economic development in Appalachia over this same period. While future events may lead to

some variation in the actual impacts, the underlying conclusion is that there is significant merit to

completion of individual ADHS corridors as part of regional transportation system.
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6 Conclusions 

Effectiveness of ADHS Investment to Date 

From this retrospective analysis of the economic impacts of the ADHS to date, it is clear that the system

has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on the Region’s economic performance. Most notably,

a historical view of the economic impact of the ADHS from 1965 to 2015 finds:

 Areas served by the ADHS have enjoyed significant travel time savings and significantly

enhanced workforce access and same‐day truck delivery access. As of 2015, annual VHT

and travel reliability savings due to ADHS corridor investments are estimated to be 360

million hours per year. These travel efficiency gains affect almost all sectors of the

economy, leading to increased business productivity and competitiveness. The benefitting

areas are largely rural and economically distressed counties. As of 2015, the value of

transportation cost savings and productivity gains amounts to $10.7 billion/year.

 As of 2015, the value of transportation cost savings and productivity gains amounts to

$10.7 billion per year. These gains extend beyond the Appalachian Region, benefiting

the entire US Economy.  Twenty percent of car vehicle hours saved and 31 percent of

freight truck vehicle hours saved accrue to trips with at least one end located outside of

the 13 Appalachian states. This indicates that the ADHS plays a particularly important

role serving longer‐distance goods movement and trade, connecting the Region to

destinations throughout the U.S.

 Those counties with the greatest travel efficiency and access benefits have also shown the

highest rates of employment growth over time.  

 The accessibility and transportation cost savings enabled by ADHS system completion to

date can be directly linked to the creation of over 168,000 added jobs and over $11.1 billion

in additional annual GRP, as of 2015. The cumulative effect of GRP growth continuing year

after year, for over fifty years (from 1965 to 2015), adds up to $388 billion.  

 The impact of ADHS corridor completion on regional GRP and employment has continued

to grow in every period of ADHS development. While the largest share of economic impact

is attributable to a large block of highway system improvements made between 1965 and

1983, there is still significant ongoing growth in benefits and economic impacts from ADHS

system investment, which can be expected to grow as the system is completed in the first

part of the 21st century.  

System-wide Completion Effects 

A separate analysis of ADHS completion impacts demonstrates a compelling case for additional

investment to complete the ADHS network, and if possible accelerating completion of this system.

Notable findings include:

 Completion of remaining ADHS corridor projects will bring savings in vehicle operating

costs, traveler time and reliability. For example, by 2045 ADHS completion is expected to
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result in 121 million additional hours of travel time and reliability gainsfor the U.S., leading

to over $1.8 billion in annual transportation efficiency, safety and environmental cost

savings. However, there are also substantial connectivity benefits from completing the

entire ADHS network, which will further enhance freight logistics, the scale of labor and

business markets, and overall business productivity.  

 ADHS system completion will generate a strong ROI (return on investment) for both the

Region and U.S. The present value of benefits – including travel time, travel cost, safety,

logistics, market access and environmental benefits – is estimated to exceed $16.3

billion. That is 3.7 times greater than the present value of costs associated with system

completion with benefits larger than costs in all scenarios tested in this study. National

gains will also include effects on facilitating long‐distance trips and intermodal

connectivity.

 The impact of fully completing the ADHS system will be in the form of increased economic

competitiveness, which will support more inward investment into the Region as well as

more exports from the Region to the rest of the world. The overall impact is estimated to

be nearly 47,000 additional jobs and $4.2 billion per year in additional GRP realized within

ten years after system completion. Around 77 percent of those impacts will occur within

the Appalachian counties; the rest will be disbursed elsewhere in the 13 Appalachian

states.

 Accelerated completion by 2035 rather than 2045 would help the Region realize economic

growth and development impacts more quickly. For instance, it would lead to over 11,000

more jobs and over $1 billion of additional GRP per year within the same study period.

 More than 50 percent of the jobs created by ADHS completion will be in the high‐value

knowledge or service sectors of the economy such as professional services, health‐care,

and financial services.  

Bottom Line: Economic Impacts, Benefits and 

Costs of ADHS 

The ADHS investments to date have provided 5,119 additional lane‐miles of highway, achieving $10.7

billion in annual benefits—in terms of transportation system performance, accessimprovement (isolation

reduction), and resulting economic growth on the order of 168,000 jobs and $11.2 billion in annual GRP.

Completion of the system will also have substantial benefits, in terms of achieving network connectivity

to economic markets and intermodal facilities, and in terms of enabling trade and regional economic

growth to the effect of nearly 47,000 additional jobs and over $4.2 billion in additional GRP growth.  Based

on available cost estimates, the achievement of ADHS system completion will bring a strong ROI (return

on investment) for Appalachia as well as the broader set of Appalachian states and the nation, realizing

$3.65 of benefit for every dollar spent on the system. An examination of five major ADHS corridors that

are not yet completed also indicates a positive ROI for each, helping support the benefits of completing

each element of the ADHS. While future costs and timing remain uncertain, the analysisshowsthat efforts

to accelerate ADHS completion can help the Region enjoy significantly higher benefits much sooner.
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

93 

Appendix: Time Series Information 

Table 37:  Cost and Benefit Streams for ADHS Completion by 2045 at Comparative Discount Rates

Year Not

discounted

3% discount

rate

7% discount

rate

Not

discounted

3% discount

rate

7% discount

rate

Not

discounted

3% discount

rate

7% discount

rate

2015 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

2016 $399.0 $399.0 $399.0 $24.0 $24.0 $24.0 $31.9 $31.9 $31.9

2017 $432.0 $419.4 $403.7 $63.6 $61.7 $59.4 $87.8 $85.2 $82.0

2018 $520.7 $490.8 $454.8 $138.0 $130.1 $120.6 $194.6 $183.4 $169.9

2019 $538.4 $492.7 $439.5 $187.3 $171.4 $152.9 $257.7 $235.8 $210.4

2020 $343.7 $305.4 $262.2 $271.2 $241.0 $206.9 $371.3 $329.9 $283.3

2021 $310.7 $268.0 $221.5 $336.6 $290.4 $240.0 $452.4 $390.3 $322.6

2022 $231.7 $194.0 $154.4 $376.8 $315.6 $251.1 $491.8 $411.8 $327.7

2023 $220.3 $179.1 $137.2 $467.4 $380.0 $291.1 $609.1 $495.2 $379.3

2024 $220.3 $173.9 $128.2 $538.6 $425.2 $313.5 $696.0 $549.4 $405.1

2025 $157.3 $120.5 $85.5 $587.1 $450.0 $319.3 $748.0 $573.3 $406.9

2026 $142.8 $106.2 $72.6 $626.5 $466.2 $318.5 $787.4 $585.9 $400.3

2027 $108.2 $78.2 $51.4 $663.4 $479.3 $315.2 $824.7 $595.8 $391.8

2028 $108.2 $75.9 $48.0 $699.2 $490.4 $310.4 $862.3 $604.8 $382.9

2029 $39.1 $26.6 $16.2 $720.3 $490.5 $298.9 $879.2 $598.7 $364.8

2030 $185.4 $122.6 $71.9 $736.5 $486.9 $285.6 $890.6 $588.8 $345.4

2031 $185.4 $119.0 $67.2 $751.4 $482.3 $272.4 $901.8 $578.8 $326.9

2032 $259.0 $161.4 $87.7 $765.1 $476.8 $259.2 $912.9 $568.9 $309.2

2033 $372.7 $225.5 $118.0 $777.6 $470.5 $246.2 $923.9 $559.0 $292.5

2034 $372.7 $218.9 $110.3 $789.2 $463.6 $233.5 $934.7 $549.0 $276.5

2035 $419.0 $239.0 $115.9 $799.9 $456.2 $221.2 $945.5 $539.2 $261.4

2036 $475.2 $263.1 $122.8 $810.0 $448.5 $209.3 $956.3 $529.5 $247.1

2037 $475.2 $255.5 $114.8 $1,231.5 $662.0 $297.4 $1,615.8 $868.6 $390.2

2038 $475.2 $248.0 $107.3 $1,301.0 $679.0 $293.7 $1,721.9 $898.7 $388.7

2039 $539.0 $273.1 $113.7 $1,515.4 $767.8 $319.7 $2,057.1 $1,042.3 $433.9

2040 $539.0 $265.1 $106.3 $1,687.6 $830.2 $332.7 $2,326.3 $1,144.4 $458.6

2041 $539.0 $257.4 $99.3 $1,809.2 $864.1 $333.3 $2,516.3 $1,201.8 $463.6

2042 $685.6 $317.9 $118.1 $1,930.8 $895.3 $332.5 $2,706.7 $1,255.1 $466.1

2043 $540.1 $243.1 $86.9 $2,046.9 $921.5 $329.4 $2,888.9 $1,300.5 $464.9

2044 $540.1 $236.1 $81.2 $2,165.1 $946.3 $325.6 $3,074.7 $1,343.9 $462.4

2045 $540.1 $229.2 $75.9 $2,285.6 $969.9 $321.3 $3,264.5 $1,385.3 $458.9

2046 $17.0 $6.8 $2.1 $2,308.7 $951.1 $303.3 $3,300.7 $1,359.8 $433.6

2047 $17.0 $6.6 $2.0 $2,332.0 $932.8 $286.3 $3,337.5 $1,334.9 $409.8

2048 $17.0 $6.4 $1.8 $2,355.4 $914.7 $270.3 $3,374.6 $1,310.5 $387.2

2049 $17.0 $6.2 $1.7 $2,379.0 $897.0 $255.1 $3,412.2 $1,286.5 $365.9

2050 $17.0 $6.0 $1.6 $2,403.0 $879.6 $240.8 $3,450.3 $1,263.0 $345.8

2051 $17.0 $5.9 $1.5 $2,427.2 $862.6 $227.3 $3,489.0 $1,239.9 $326.8

2052 $17.0 $5.7 $1.4 $2,352.9 $811.8 $206.0 $3,371.9 $1,163.4 $295.2

2053 $17.0 $5.5 $1.3 $2,435.9 $816.0 $199.3 $3,503.5 $1,173.6 $286.6

2054 $17.0 $5.4 $1.2 $2,439.9 $793.5 $186.5 $3,510.4 $1,141.7 $268.4

2055 $17.0 $5.2 $1.1 $2,443.9 $771.7 $174.6 $3,517.3 $1,110.6 $251.3

2056 $17.0 $5.1 $1.1 $2,458.9 $753.8 $164.2 $3,541.7 $1,085.7 $236.5

2057 $17.0 $4.9 $1.0 $2,474.2 $736.4 $154.4 $3,566.4 $1,061.5 $222.6

2058 $17.0 $4.8 $0.9 $2,499.3 $722.2 $145.8 $3,606.9 $1,042.2 $210.4

2059 $17.0 $4.6 $0.9 $2,371.2 $665.2 $129.3 $3,404.8 $955.2 $185.6

2060 $17.0 $4.5 $0.8 $2,395.4 $652.4 $122.0 $3,443.7 $938.0 $175.4

2061 $17.0 $4.4 $0.8 $2,419.8 $639.9 $115.2 $3,483.0 $921.0 $165.8

2062 $17.0 $4.2 $0.7 $2,444.6 $627.6 $108.8 $3,522.9 $904.5 $156.8

2063 $17.0 $4.1 $0.7 $2,469.7 $615.6 $102.7 $3,563.3 $888.2 $148.2

2064 $17.0 $4.0 $0.6 $2,495.1 $603.8 $97.0 $3,604.3 $872.2 $140.1

2065 $17.0 $3.9 $0.6 $2,521.0 $592.3 $91.6 $3,645.9 $856.6 $132.4

2066 $17.0 $3.8 $0.5 $2,547.1 $581.0 $86.5 $3,688.0 $841.3 $125.2

2067 $17.0 $3.7 $0.5 $2,573.7 $570.0 $81.7 $3,730.9 $826.3 $118.4

2068 $17.0 $3.5 $0.5 $2,600.7 $559.2 $77.1 $3,774.5 $811.6 $111.9

2069 $17.0 $3.4 $0.4 $2,628.0 $548.6 $72.8 $3,818.4 $797.1 $105.8

2070 $17.0 $3.3 $0.4 $2,655.7 $538.2 $68.8 $3,863.2 $783.0 $100.1

2071 $17.0 $3.2 $0.4 $2,683.8 $528.1 $65.0 $3,908.5 $769.1 $94.6

2072 $17.0 $3.2 $0.4 $2,712.3 $518.2 $61.4 $3,954.5 $755.5 $89.5

2073 $17.0 $3.1 $0.3 $2,577.1 $478.0 $54.5 $3,740.8 $693.8 $79.1

2074 $17.0 $3.0 $0.3 $2,604.5 $469.0 $51.5 $3,785.2 $681.6 $74.8

2075 $17.0 $2.9 $0.3 $2,632.4 $460.2 $48.6 $3,830.2 $669.6 $70.7

Regional Perspective National Perspective Total Cost Benefits
Economic Analysis of Completing the Appalachian Development Highway System: Technical Report 

94 

Table 38:  Cost & Benefit Streams for 2035 Acceleration and 2045 Completion Scenarios

Year

Cost

(Undiscounted

$M)

Cost (7%

Discount Rate

$M)

Regional

Benefts

(Undiscounted

$M)

Regional

Benefits (7%

Discount Rate

$M)

Cost  

(Undiscounted

$M)

Cost (7%

Discount Rate

$M)

Regional

Benefts

(Undiscount

ed $M)

Regional Benefits

(7% Discount Rate

$M)

2015 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

2016 $399.0 $399.0 $24.0 $24.0 $399.0 $399.0 $10.1 $10.1

2017 $432.0 $403.7 $63.6 $59.4 $432.0 $403.7 $73.8 $68.9

2018 $520.7 $454.8 $138.0 $120.6 $520.7 $454.8 $161.1 $140.7

2019 $538.4 $439.5 $187.3 $152.9 $538.4 $439.5 $226.9 $185.2

2020 $343.7 $262.2 $271.2 $206.9 $529.1 $403.7 $327.6 $249.9

2021 $310.7 $221.5 $336.6 $240.0 $496.1 $353.7 $407.0 $290.2

2022 $231.7 $154.4 $376.8 $251.1 $417.1 $277.9 $456.7 $304.3

2023 $220.3 $137.2 $467.4 $291.1 $519.3 $323.4 $562.7 $350.4

2024 $220.3 $128.2 $538.6 $313.5 $519.3 $302.2 $616.6 $358.8

2025 $157.3 $85.5 $587.1 $319.3 $576.3 $313.5 $662.9 $360.6

2026 $142.8 $72.6 $626.5 $318.5 $561.8 $285.6 $702.3 $357.0

2027 $108.2 $51.4 $663.4 $315.2 $527.2 $250.5 $1,021.3 $485.2

2028 $108.2 $48.0 $699.2 $310.4 $527.2 $234.1 $1,087.3 $482.8

2029 $39.1 $16.2 $720.3 $298.9 $562.3 $233.3 $1,274.0 $528.7

2030 $185.4 $71.9 $736.5 $285.6 $523.3 $202.9 $1,469.5 $569.9

2031 $185.4 $67.2 $751.4 $272.4 $523.3 $189.7 $1,563.2 $566.6

2032 $259.0 $87.7 $765.1 $259.2 $685.6 $232.2 $1,688.4 $571.9

2033 $372.7 $118.0 $777.6 $246.2 $685.6 $217.0 $1,815.6 $574.8

2034 $372.7 $110.3 $789.2 $233.5 $685.6 $202.8 $1,945.0 $575.5

2035 $419.0 $115.9 $799.9 $221.2 $685.6 $189.6 $2,076.7 $574.2

2036 $475.2 $122.8 $810.0 $209.3 $0.0 $0.0 $2,097.1 $541.9

2037 $475.2 $114.8 $1,231.5 $297.4 $0.0 $0.0 $2,117.5 $511.4

2038 $475.2 $107.3 $1,301.0 $293.7 $0.0 $0.0 $2,138.3 $482.6

2039 $539.0 $113.7 $1,515.4 $319.7 $0.0 $0.0 $2,159.1 $455.5

2040 $539.0 $106.3 $1,687.6 $332.7 $0.0 $0.0 $2,180.0 $429.8

2041 $539.0 $99.3 $1,809.2 $333.3 $0.0 $0.0 $2,201.4 $405.6

2042 $685.6 $118.1 $1,930.8 $332.5 $0.0 $0.0 $2,222.9 $382.8

2043 $540.1 $86.9 $2,046.9 $329.4 $0.0 $0.0 $2,244.5 $361.2

2044 $540.1 $81.2 $2,165.1 $325.6 $0.0 $0.0 $2,266.5 $340.9

2045 $540.1 $75.9 $2,285.6 $321.3 $0.0 $0.0 $2,288.8 $321.7

2045 Completion 2035 Completion