Energy Conservation Standards for 

Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 

ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Building Technologies Program 

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 

U.S. Department of Energy 

August 23, 2007 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Framework 

Document ANOPR NOPR Final Rule 

Energy Use

ization 

Technology

Analysis 

Analysis Price 

PaybackPeriod Analysis 

Shipments Analysis 

Character

Market and Assessment 

Screening 

Engineering 

Markups for Equipment Determination Life-Cycle 

Cost and 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
Purpose 

 Shipments Analysis 

• To estimate commercial refrigeration equipment shipments over tim

 National Impact Analysis 

• To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from commercial r

equipment efficiency standards at different levels. 

• To estimate the national economic impact on the nation (or the Ne

Value (NPV)) from equipment efficiency standards at different leve

Correction Note: The NPV results shown in the TSD and presented in these slides differ from what is provided in the ANOPR as they includimpact of corrections to the fuel escalation rates that were made subsequent to the preparation of the ANOPR. 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
National Impact Analysis Process 

Shipments 

Energy Economic 

Impacts 

LCC Other Inputs 

Model 

National Savings 

National 

Analysis Results and 

N

Ener

(

N

Net P

(2006 

 National energy savings calculated for period from 2012-204 NPV calculated for period from 2012-2052 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
ANOPR Issues for Public Comment 

 Characterizing the National Impact Analysis Base Case (I Base Case and Standards Case Forecasts (Issue #11)  Differential Impact of New Standards on Future Shipments 

Equipment Classes (Issue #12) 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
Sh

Shipments Model Inputs

Input Data Source/Description 

Commercial Building Data 

Forecasted New Construction: 2005-2030 U.S. DOE-EIA, 2006 Annual Energy Outlook, Food S

Forecasted Stock: 2005-2030 U.S. DOE-EIA, 2006 Annual Energy Outlook, Food SForecasted New Construction: 2031-2042 Extrapolation of last 10 years growth from U.S. DOE

Energy Outlook, Food Sales Buildings 

Market Saturation Data (percent of floor space with commercial refrigeration equipmReplacements 

New and stock saturation Assumed identical for stock and new construction Replacements driven by Equipment Lifetime From Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (10 year average lifet

Shipments by Product Class 

Relative Shipments by Product Class From 2005 ARI shipment data converted to linear fe

using estimated average equipment class dimension

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
Sh

Shipments Model

l

) 

ial

i l 

lass 

% Shi

Cl (2005) 

NEMS Food Sa es Bldg 

Construction Forecast ARI Estimate of 

Shipments (2005

Init Replacement 

Shipments 

Init al Shipments to New 

Construction 

Initial CRE Stock 

Estimated Lifetime 

of CRE Stock 

Shipments to New 

Construction 

Replacement 

Shipments 

Tota

Shipments By 

Product C

pments by Pro

ass

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
Sh

Shipments Model Results

Equipment Class 

Thousands of Linear Feet Shipped by Year and Equipment Class 

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

VOP.RC.M 423 446 490 538 591 649 714 742 

VOP.RC.L* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

VOP.SC.M 28 30 33 36 40 44 48 50 VCT.RC.M 30 32 35 38 42 46 51 53 VCT.RC.L 420 443 487 535 587 645 709 737 

VCT.SC.I 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 

VCS.SC.I 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 

SVO.RC.M 323 340 374 411 451 495 545 566 

SVO.SC.M 43 45 49 54 59 65 72 75 SOC.RC.M 81 86 94 104 114 125 137 143 HZO.RC.M 50 52 57 63 69 76 84 87 HZO.RC.L 156 164 181 198 218 239 263 273 

HZO.SC.M 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 

HZO.SC.L 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 

HCT.SC.I 34 35 39 43 47 52 57 59 

* Estimated shipments of this class were zero. The industry requested that this equipment class be included in the rulemaking 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
National 

Inputs 

 Shipments 

• Annual linear feet of equipment by equipment class from shipments 

 Total Installed Cost 

• National average cost per linear foot by equipment class and efficie

taken from LCC analysis 

 Repair and Maintenance Costs 

• Average annualized values per linear foot by equipment class and e

taken from LCC analysis 

 Annual Energy Use 

• National average annual energy use per linear foot by equipment c

efficiency level 

 Market Shares by Efficiency Level 

• Estimated for base case using commercial customer risk-premium 

EIA NEMS model and CRE LCC analysis results 

• Developed for each standards case using a roll-up approach -- bas

shares below a standard level are “rolled into” the market shares at level 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
National 

Inputs (cont.) 

 Efficiency Trends 

• Future trends in average equipment efficiency improvement over tim

due to lack of historical market data 

 Energy Prices Escalation 

• 2012 weighted-average CRE electricity prices taken from LCC anal• Future electricity prices adjusted using 2006 Annual Energy Outloo

estimated using 2020-2030 forecast trends) 

 Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

• Conversion factors forecast using 2006 Annual Energy Outlook (20

estimated using 2020-2030 forecast trends) 

• Factors vary annually and account for generation, distribution, and 

losses 

 Discount Rate 

• 7% and 3% real from OMB’s Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4 • Future expenses discounted to 2007, reported in 2006$ 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
Market Share in NIA Baseline 

National 

Example Base Case Market Shares by Efficiency 

VOP.RC.M 

25% 20% 15% 10% 

5% 0% 

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Le

Efficiency Level 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
National 

Characterizing the National Impact Analysis Bas

(Issue #10) 

 Base case market shares by efficiency level are developed 

economic model 

 DOE does not have data with which to calibrate these mar

shares to actual shipments by efficiency level. 

DOE invites comments on the proposed economic-based appestimating market shares. 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
National 

Base Case and Standards Case Forecasts 

(Issue #11) 

 DOE did not have historical data to indicate how equipmen

efficiencies have changed over time or might change in th

 Forecasted market shares for efficiencies above the candi

standard level remain frozen at the 2012 efficiency level unend of the forecast period 

DOE invites comments on its basis for the forecasted base ca

standards case efficiencies and its prediction on how standarefficiency distributions in the year that standards take effect. 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
Example Cumulative Energy Savings and Net Pr

Value by Efficiency Level (VOP.RC.M) 

National 

0 

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 

Level 1 

Level 2 

Level 3 

Level 4 

Level 5 

Level 6 

Level 7 

Level 8 

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 

NPV 

Cumulative Source Energy Savings and NPV 

Standard Level 

Cumulative Energy Savings (Quads) 

NPV (Billion 2006$) 

Energy Savings 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
National 

Example Net Present Value Results: 

(VOP.RC.M, EFF Level 6, 7 percent discount rate)

0 

0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 

0.1 

0.12 0.14 0.16 

Year 

i

i i

Di

Net Savings 

-0.06 -0.04 -0.02 

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 

Billion 2006$ 

Undiscounted Total Annual Operat ng Savings Und scounted Annual Equipment Purchase Sav ngs 

scounted Total Net Annual Impact 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
National 

ANOPR NIA Results 

 National Energy Savings (2012-2042) range from 0.12 quad

2 to 1.73 quads at maximum efficiency level analyzed (15 eclasses) 

 Range of NPV Savings was from $120 million to $1.4 Billio

depending on levels selected for all product classes at 7% rate $360 Million to $4.3 Billion at 3% discount rate 

 Approximately 86% of estimated potential NPV savings an

energy savings comes from 4 product classes (VOP.RC.MVCT.RC.L, SVO.RC.M, HZO.RC.L) 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
National 

Differential Impact of New Standards on Future Sh

by Equipment Classes 

(Issue #12) 

 The shipments model used by DOE presumes that the rela

market shares between equipment classes remains constatime 

 DOE is concerned that higher standards set for specific cl

products could shift the market to use other equipment thhave greater energy consumption 

 DOE seeks stakeholder input on how the standards-settin

can reduce or eliminate these potential market shifts 

DOE invites comments regarding whether higher standard lespecific equipment classes are likely to cause commercial re

equipment customers to shift to using other, less-efficient eqclasses for displaying merchandise. 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6
National 

Other Issues 

DOE invites comments and recommendations from stakehoany other aspects related to the National Impacts Analysis. 

 EE-2006-STD-0126 COMMENT 13.6