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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ES.1 OVERVIEW OF PRELIMINARY ACTIVITIES.........................................................ES-1

ES.2 OVERVIEW OF THE PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS AND THE 

PRELIMINARY TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT ..........................................ES-3

ES.3 KEY RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS .........................................................................ES-4

ES.3.1 Market and Technology Assessment .......................................................................ES-4

ES.3.2 Screening Analysis...................................................................................................ES-8

ES.3.3 Engineering Analysis...............................................................................................ES-8

ES.3.3.1 Product Classes Analyzed.................................................................. ES-8

ES.3.3.2 Manufacturing Cost Assessment........................................................ ES-9

ES.3.4 Markups Analysis ..................................................................................................ES-12

ES.3.5 Energy Use Analysis..............................................................................................ES-13

ES.3.6 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis......................................................ES-15

ES.3.7 Shipments Analysis................................................................................................ES-19

ES.3.8 National Impact Analysis.......................................................................................ES-20

ES.3.8.1 National Energy Savings.................................................................. ES-21

ES.3.8.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits ........................................ ES-22

ES.3.9 Preliminary Manufacturer Impact Analysis...........................................................ES-24

ES.4 ISSUES ON WHICH DOE SEEKS PUBLIC COMMENT........................................ES-25

ES.4.1 Market and Energy Performance Data for Non-Key Product Classes...................ES-25

ES.4.2 Efficiency as a Function of Capacity.....................................................................ES-25

ES.4.3 Inverter-Driven PSC Fan Motors...........................................................................ES-26

ES.4.4 Fan Motor Turndown Ratio ...................................................................................ES-26

ES.4.5 Proprietary Electronically-Commutated Motor Technology.................................ES-26

ES.4.6 High-Efficiency Fan Motor Control Costs ............................................................ES-26

ES.4.7 Backward-Inclined Impellers.................................................................................ES-26

ES.4.8 Airflow Path Design ..............................................................................................ES-27

ES.4.9 Distribution Channel and Market Share of Replacement Furnace Fans................ES-28

ES.4.10 Continuous-Circulation Operation.........................................................................ES-28

ES.4.11 Rebound Effect on Energy Savings from Higher-Efficiency Furnace Fans..........ES-28

ES.4.12 Base-Case Furnace Fan Efficiency Distribution in 2018 (LCC Analysis) ............ES-28

ES.4.13 Furnace Fan Efficiency Trends in the Absence of Standards (NIA) .....................ES-29

ES.4.14 Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Savings............................................................................ES-29

LIST OF TABLES

Table ES.3.1 Product Classes..................................................................................................ES-6

Table ES.3.2 Baseline Fan Efficiency Rating (FER) for Key Product Classes.......................ES-9

Table ES.3.3 Incremental Manufacturer Production Cost Results for Furnace Fans Used 

in HVAC Products Other than Oil Furnaces and Hydronic Air Handlers.......ES-10

Table ES.3.4 Incremental Manufacturer Production Cost Results for Furnace Fans Used 

in Oil Furnaces.................................................................................................ES-11
ES-ii

Table ES.3.5 Incremental Manufacturer Production Cost Results for Furnace Fans Used 

in Hydronic Air Handlers.................................................................................ES-12

Table ES.3.6 Markups for Furnaces Containing Furnace Fans.............................................ES-13

Table ES.3.7 Average Annual Energy Consumption and Savings for Furnace Fans Used 

in Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces ..................................................................ES-15

Table ES.3.8 Non-Weatherized, Non-Condensing Gas Furnace Fan: LCC and PBP 

Results..............................................................................................................ES-17

Table ES.3.9 Non-Weatherized, Condensing Gas Furnace Fan: LCC and PBP Results ......ES-18

Table ES.3.10 Electric Furnace/ Modular Blower Fan: LCC and PBP Results......................ES-18

Table ES.3.11 Weatherized Gas Furnace Fan: LCC and PBP Results....................................ES-19

Table ES.3.12 National Energy Savings for Furnace Fans Used in HVAC Products Other 

than Hydronic Air Handlers (quads)................................................................ES-22

Table ES.3.13 National Energy Savings for Furnace Fans Used in Hydronic Air Handlers 

(quads)..............................................................................................................ES-22

Table ES.3.14 Net Present Value, Discounted at 3 Percent, for Furnace Fans Used in 

HVAC Products Other than Hydronic Air Handlers (billion 2011$)..............ES-23

Table ES.3.15 Net Present Value, Discounted at 3 Percent, for Furnace Fans Used in 

Hydronic Air Handlers (billion 2011$)............................................................ES-23

Table ES.3.16 Net Present Value, Discounted at 7 Percent, for Furnace Fans Used in 

HVAC Products Other than Hydronic Air Handlers (billion 2011$)..............ES-24

Table ES.3.17 Net Present Value, Discounted at 7 Percent, for Furnace Fans Used in 

Hydronic Air Handlers (billion 2011$)............................................................ES-24

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure ES.1.1 Flow Diagram of Analyses for the Furnace Fan Standards Rulemaking...........ES-2

Figure ES.3.2 Market Share of Shipments by Product Class (2009)........................................ES-7

Figure ES.3.3 Forecasted Shipments for Furnaces Containing Furnace Fans (Base Case)....ES-20
ES-1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ES.1 OVERVIEW OF PRELIMINARY ACTIVITIES

Section 6295(o)(3)(B) of Title 42 of the United States Code (U.S.C.) requires the U.S. 

Department of Energy (DOE) to establish energy conservation standards for covered products 

that are technologically feasible and economically justified and would achieve the maximum 

improvement in energy efficiency. This Executive Summary presents the preliminary activities 

that DOE conducted in consideration of new energy conservation standards for electricity used 

for purposes of circulating air through duct work (hereafter referred to as “residential furnace 

fans”). The Executive Summary describes the preliminary activities and reports key results from 

DOE’s preliminary analyses. Additionally, the Executive Summary delineates issues identified 

during the analyses about which DOE seeks comments from interested parties. These issues are 

highlighted in the public meeting presentation and are further discussed in chapter 2 of the 

preliminary technical support document (TSD).

Figure ES.1.1 presents a summary of the analytical components of the standards-setting 

process and illustrates how key results are generated. The focal point of the figure is the center 

column, labeled “Analyses.” The columns labeled “Key Inputs” and “Key Outputs” show how 

the analyses fit into the process and how they relate to each other. Key inputs are the types of 

data and other information that the analyses require. Some key information is obtained from 

public databases; DOE collects other inputs from interested parties or persons having special 

knowledge and expertise. Key outputs are analytical results that feed directly into the standardssetting process. The issues on which DOE seeks comment from interested parties derive from the 

key results that are generated by the preliminary analyses. Arrows connecting analyses show the 

types of information that flow from one analysis to another.
ES-2

Figure ES.1.1 Flow Diagram of Analyses for the Furnace Fan Standards

Rulemaking 

Utility Impact

Analysis 

Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR)

Final Rule

Market and Technology

Assessment

Screening Analysis

Engineering Analysis

Markups for

Product Price

Determination Life-Cycle Cost and 

Payback Period 

Analysis

National Impact

Analysis

Energy Use

Revise Pre-NOPR

Analyses

Life-Cycle Cost 

Sub-Group Analysis

Manufacturer Impact 

Analysis

Shipments

Analysis

Employment Impact

Analysis 

Revise Analyses

• Product Classes

• Technology Options

• Industry Cash Flow

• Sub-Group Cash-Flow

• Direct Employment Impacts

• Competitive Impacts

• Cumulative Regulatory Burden

• Cost-Efficiency Relationship

• Life-Cycle Costs

• Payback Periods

• National Energy Savings

• Net Present Values

• National Employment Impacts

• Revised Results

• Market Segmentation

• Non-Regulatory Programs

Framework Document

• Energy Prices

• Installation Costs

• Maintenance & Repair Costs

• Backcast and Forecast

• Market Saturation

• Stakeholder Comments

• Demographics

• Emission Rates

• National Energy Savings

• Stakeholder Comments

• Identify Firms/Products 

• Historical Shipments

• Manufacturer Prices

• Average Costs

• Manufacturer Financial Data

Design Options

Product Classes

Retail Prices

Design Energy

Notice of Public Meeting (NOPM)

• Efficiency/Performance

• Manufacturing Cost

Candidate

Standard 

Levels

Environmental

Assessment

Regulatory Impact

Analysis

Technology Options

• Emission Estimates

• Utility Load Factors

• National Energy Savings

• Non-Regulatory

Alternatives

• Design Options

• Energy Price Forecasts

• Site-to-Source Factors

• Energy-Efficiency Levels

Direct Employment 

Impacts

• National Energy Savings

• National Product Costs

• National Operating Costs

• Utility Impacts

• Life-Cycle Costs

• Payback Periods

• Installation

Costs

• Maint Costs

• Repair Costs

• UEC

• Energy 

Prices

• Annual Energy Use (UEC)

Preliminary 

Manufacturer Impact 

Analysis

• Manufacturer Prices

• Average Costs

• Conversion Capital Expenditures

• Direct Employment Impacts

• National Energy Savings

• Net Present Values

• Trial Standard Levels (TSLs)

TSLs

• Product Prototypes

Energy-Efficiency 

Levels

• Department of Justice Review
ES-3

ES.2 OVERVIEW OF THE PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS AND THE 

PRELIMINARY TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT 

For the preliminary analysis stage, DOE publishes a notice of public meeting (NOPM) in 

the Federal Register, which announces the availability of the preliminary TSD, the date and 

place of the public meeting, and presentation materials that interested parties may review before 

the public meeting. In addition, the NOPM highlights the major analyses DOE developed in the 

preliminary analysis stage. The preliminary TSD describes each preliminary analysis step in 

detail, providing descriptions of inputs, sources, methodologies, and results. The following 

chapters of the preliminary TSD address the analyses performed for the preliminary analysis 

stage.

Chapter 1 - The introduction provides an overview of standards for furnace fans and describes 

DOE’s process for setting energy conservation standards.

Chapter 2 - The analytical framework describes each preliminary analysis step, the comments 

received in response to the analytical approaches DOE described in the Framework 

Document, and DOE’s responses to those comments. 

Chapter 3 - The market and technology assessment (MTA) characterizes the relevant product 

markets and technology options, including prototype designs.

Chapter 4 - The screening analysis reviews each technology option uncovered in the MTA to 

determine whether it is technologically feasible; is practicable to manufacture, 

install, and service; would adversely affect product utility or product availability; or 

would have adverse impacts on health and safety.

Chapter 5 - The engineering analysis develops cost-efficiency relationships that show a 

manufacturer’s cost of achieving increased efficiency.

Chapter 6 - The markup analysis estimates consumer product prices based on market structures, 

and the manufacturing costs developed in the engineering analysis.

Chapter 7 - The energy use analysis determines the annual energy consumption of the products 

under consideration.

Chapter 8 - The life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback period (PBP) analysis discusses the effects 

of standards on individual customers and users of the products and compares the 

LCC and PBP of products with and without higher efficiency standards.

Chapter 9 - The shipments analysis documents historic unit shipments and forecasts future 

shipments of products at potential energy conservation standards under 

consideration. 

Chapter 10 - The national impact analysis (NIA) assesses the cumulative national energy 

savings (NES) from potential standards and the net present value (NPV) of 

consumer costs and savings associated with standards at different efficiency levels.
ES-4

Chapter 12 - The preliminary manufacturer impact analysis (MIA) assesses the potential impacts 

of energy conservation standards on manufacturers, such as effects on expenditures 

for capital conversion, marketing costs, shipments, and research and development 

costs.

The remaining chapters of the preliminary TSD describe the analyses to be performed for 

the notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) stage:

Chapter 11 - The consumer subgroup analysis evaluates the effects of potential energy 

conservation standards on subgroups of the population (e.g., low-income 

consumers and senior-only households).

Chapter 13 - The employment impact analysis examines the effects of potential energy 

conservation standards on national employment.

Chapter 14 - The utility impact analysis examines impacts of potential energy conservation 

standards on the generation capacity of electric utilities.

Chapter 15 - The emissions analysis examines the effects of potential energy conservation 

standards on various airborne emissions.

Chapter 16 - Monetization of emissions reductions quantifies the anticipated benefits from

potential energy conservation standards.

Chapter 17 - A regulatory impact analysis examines the national impacts of non-regulatory 

alternatives to mandatory energy conservation standards.

ES.3 KEY RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS 

The following sections describe analyses DOE performed for the preliminary analysis

stage and present the key results.

ES.3.1 Market and Technology Assessment

When initiating an analysis of potential energy efficiency standards for a residential 

product, DOE develops information for the products and characterizes the market and industry 

structure, evaluating both current and historical information. This activity is primarily based on a 

review of publicly-available information. 

When evaluating and establishing energy conservation standards, DOE generally divides 

covered products into product classes by the type of energy used or by capacity or other 

performance-related features that affect efficiency. DOE has decided to differentiate between 

furnace fan product classes based on two performance-related features: (1) product application,

and (2) internal structure (i.e., geometry and configuration of components in the airflow path). 

Different energy conservation standards may apply to different product classes. (42 U.S.C. 

6295(q)) The product classes identified for this rulemaking are furnace fans used in the heating, 

ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) products listed below. DOE divided these product 
ES-5

classes into nine key product classes and 12 additional product classes. Key product classes are 

those for which DOE is aware of significant shipments and enough public data were readily 

available to conduct robust analyses. The additional product classes represent significantly fewer 

shipments and significantly less energy use. Analyses for these product classes were in some 

cases extrapolated from the results for the key product classes. For the preliminary analysis, 

DOE grouped each non-key product class with a key product class to which it is closely related 

in application and internal structure (i.e., the primary criteria used to differentiate between 

product classes). DOE assigned analytical results of each key product class to the non-key 

product classes with which it is grouped. Table ES.3.1 presents the 21 product classes and maps 

the additional product classes to the nine key product classes. 
ES-6

Table ES.3.1 Product Classes

Key Product Class Additional Product Classes

Non-Weatherized, Non-Condensing Gas 

Furnace Fan (NWG-NC)

Non-weatherized, Condensing Gas Furnace 

Fan (NWG-C)

Weatherized Gas Furnace Fan (WG-NC)

Weatherized, Non-Condensing Oil Furnace Fan 

(WO-NC)

Weatherized Electric Furnace/Modular Blower 

Fan (WEF/WMB)

Manufactured Home Weatherized Gas Furnace 

Fan (MH-WG)

Manufactured Home Weatherized Oil Furnace 

Fan (MH-WO)

Manufactured Home Weatherized Electric 

Furnace/Modular Blower Fan (MH-WEF/WMB)

Non-weatherized Oil, Non-Condensing 

Furnace Fan (NWO-NC)

Non-Weatherized, Condensing Oil Furnace Fan 

(NWO-C)

Manufactured Home Non-Weatherized Oil 

Furnace Fan (MH-NWO)

Non-weatherized Electric Furnace / Modular 

Blower Fan (NWEF/NWMB)

Heat/Cool Hydronic Air Handler Fan (HAHHC)

Heat-Only Hydronic Air Handler Fan (HAH-H)

Hydronic Air Handler Fan with Coil (HAH-C)

Manufactured Home Heat/Cool Hydronic Air 

Handler Fan (MH-HAH-HC)

Manufactured Home Heat-Only Hydronic Air 

Handler Fan (MH-HAH-H)

Manufactured Home Hydronic Air Handler Fan 

with Coil (MH-HAH-C)

Manufactured Home Non-Weatherized Gas, 

Non-Condensing Furnace Fan (MH-NWGNC)

Manufactured Home Non-Weatherized Gas, 

Condensing Furnace Fan (MH-NWG-C)

Manufactured Home Electric Furnace/ 

Modular Blower Fan (MH-EF/MB)

Each product class title includes descriptors that indicate the application and internal 

structure of its included products. “Weatherized” and “non-weatherized” are descriptors that 

indicate whether the HVAC product is installed outdoors or indoors, respectively. Weatherized 

products also include an internal evaporator coil, while non-weatherized products are not shipped 

with an evaporator coil but may be designed to be paired with one. “Condensing” refers to the 

presence of a secondary, condensing heat exchanger in addition to the primary combustion heat 

exchanger in certain furnaces. “Manufactured home” products meet certain design requirements 
ES-7

that allow them to be installed in manufactured homes. Details regarding these design 

requirements are included in chapter 3 of this TSD. Descriptors such as gas, oil, electric, or 

hydronic indicate the type of fuel or working fluid that the HVAC product uses to produce heat, 

which determines the type and geometry of the primary heat exchanger used in the HVAC 

product. Hydronic products include parenthetical descriptors to indicate whether the product is 

designed to be used for heating and cooling or heat only, as well as whether the product includes 

an internal evaporator coil. 

For the residential furnace fans that are the topic of this rulemaking, DOE addressed as 

part of the market assessment: (1) manufacturer market share and characteristics; (2) existing 

regulatory and non-regulatory initiatives for improving product efficiency; and (3) trends in 

product characteristics and retail markets. The analysis conducted for this assessment provided 

data and resource materials that were used throughout this preliminary analysis.

DOE reviewed literature and interviewed manufacturers to develop an overall 

understanding of the furnace fan industry in the United States. Industry publications, including 

trade journals, literature from manufacturers, government agencies, and trade organizations 

provided the bulk of the information, including: (1) manufacturers and their market share; (2) 

shipments by product type; (3) product information; and (4) industry trends. 

Figure ES.3.2 shows market share of shipments by product type. Chapter 3 of the preliminary 

TSD describes the market analysis and resulting information.

Figure ES.3.2 Market Share of Shipments by Product Class (2009)

1%

3%

0.3%

2%

13%

2%

7%

35%

37%

Hydronic Air Handlers

Manufactured Home Electric 

Furnace

Manufactured Home NWG, 

Condensing Furnace

Manufactured Home NWG, 

Non-Condensing Furnace

Electric Furnace

Oil Furnace

Weatherized Gas Furnace

NWG Condensing

NWG, Non-Condensing
ES-8

DOE typically uses information about existing and past technology options and prototype 

designs to determine which technologies and combinations of technologies manufacturers use to 

attain higher performance levels. In consultation with interested parties, DOE develops a list of 

technologies to be considered. In the current rulemaking, DOE considered the following 

technology options in its analysis:

• High-efficiency fan motors;

• Fan motor inverter controls; and

• Improved impeller design.

DOE developed its list of technology options for furnace fans based on a review of trade 

publications, technical papers, and manufacturer literature and through consultation with 

manufacturers of components and systems. Because existing products contain many technologies 

for improving product efficiency, product literature and direct examination provided additional 

information. Detailed information regarding these technology options is included in chapter 3 of 

this TSD.

ES.3.2 Screening Analysis

DOE develops an initial list of options for enhancing the efficiency of furnace fans from 

the technologies that the technology assessment identified as feasible. DOE then conducts a 

screening analysis (chapter 4) in which it examines, in consultation with interested parties, 

whether the identified technologies: (1) are technologically feasible; (2) are practicable to 

manufacture, install, and service; (3) have an adverse impact on product utility or availability; or 

(4) have adverse impacts on health and safety. If the technology option does not meet the first 

two criteria or if the technology option does meet the last two criteria, DOE will not consider that 

technology option further. In the subsequent engineering analysis, DOE further examines the 

technology options that it did not remove from consideration in the screening analysis.

ES.3.3 Engineering Analysis

The engineering analysis establishes the relationship between the cost of manufacturing 

residential furnace fans and their efficiency. This relationship serves as the basis for calculating 

costs and benefits of modified product designs for consumers, manufacturers, and the Nation. 

Chapter 5 describes the product classes DOE analyzed, the representative baseline units, the 

efficiency levels DOE considered, the methodology DOE used to develop the manufacturing 

production cost model, and the cost-efficiency results.

ES.3.3.1 Product Classes Analyzed

The engineering analysis directly analyzed nine key product classes that represent more 

than 90 percent of product sales and broadly represent the range of product classes within the 

residential furnace fan product category. Based on its analysis, DOE generated nine costefficiency curves. After a review of publically-available product literature, teardowns, and 

discussions with manufacturers, DOE found that the baseline furnace fan across all key product 

classes includes: (1) a direct-drive permanent split capacitor (PSC) motor with three or fewer 
ES-9

airflow-control settings; (2) a centrifugal forward-curved impeller; and (3) a standard housing 

design, typically made of sheet-metal. 

DOE collected publicly-available performance data and conducted testing according to 

the proposed test procedure for furnace fans to calculate baseline fan efficiency rating (FER)

values for each key product class.1

Table ES.3.2

The FER or IFER levels determined for the nine products 

serving as prototypical baseline-efficiency products are listed in . Chapter 5 

includes additional details on the representative product classes and the prototypical products.

Table ES.3.2 Baseline Fan Efficiency Rating (FER) for Key Product Classes

Product Class

FER 

(W/1000 cfm)

IFER*

(W/1000 cfm)

Non-weatherized, Non-condensing Gas Furnace Fan 380

Non-weatherized, Condensing Gas Furnace Fan 393

Weatherized Gas Furnace Fan 333

Non-Weatherized Oil Furnace Fan 333

Electric Furnace / Modular Blower Fan 312

Manufactured Home Non-weatherized, Noncondensing Gas Furnace Fan 295

Manufactured Home Non-weatherized, Condensing 

Gas Furnace Fan 319

Manufactured Home Electric Furnace / Modular 

Blower Fan 243

Hydronic Air Handler Fan (Heat/Cool) 107

*The rating metric for hydronic air handlers, integrated fan efficiency rating (IFER), integrates standby mode and 

off mode energy consumption, as well as active mode energy consumption.

ES.3.3.2 Manufacturing Cost Assessment

DOE estimated the manufacturing costs associated with reductions in FER for each of the 

nine key residential furnace fan product classes. The assessment method involved disassembling 

model units; analyzing the materials, components, and manufacturing processes used to 

manufacture the products; and developing a spreadsheet model itemizing all parts and associated 

costs. DOE calculated the manufacturer production cost (MPC) for each disassembled product. 

DOE obtained input from furnace fan and furnace fan component manufacturers on the 

manufacturing cost model inputs. DOE aggregated manufacturers’ costs and other sensitive 

information to maintain confidentiality of the data. Chapter 5 of the preliminary TSD includes 

information on the inputs used to determine the manufacturing cost, including material, labor, 

and overhead prices. Chapter 5 also includes information on the various components and features 

incorporated into designs for residential furnace fan products.

 1 U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Energy Conservation Program 

for Consumer Products: Test Procedures for Furnace Fans, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, 77 FR 28674 (May 17, 

2012).
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The primary outputs of the engineering analysis are cost-efficiency curves for the nine 

key product classes. The cost-efficiency curves are described by the efficiency levels DOE 

analyzed and the increase in manufacturer selling price (MSP) associated with achieving each of 

these efficiency levels. MSP is the MPC estimated from teardowns multiplied by a manufacturer 

markup (see section ES.3.4). DOE chose efficiency levels in its analysis that are aligned with 

specific technology options (e.g., EL 4 represents use of an electronically-commutated motor

(ECM)). The cost-efficiency curves that result for non-hydronic product classes are all similar

because DOE anticipates that manufacturers of these products will consider similar technology 

paths to increase furnace fan efficiency. The incremental costs for each efficiency level are 

different for oil furnaces compared to other non-hydronic product classes because manufacturers 

of oil furnaces typically have lower annual production volumes. As a result, their buying power 

is limited and purchased parts cost more for these low-volume manufacturers. Table ES.3.3 and 

Table ES.3.4 describe the cost-efficiency relationships for a furnace fan used in a non-hydronic 

HVAC product rated to provide 1,200 cfm in the maximum default airflow-control setting (i.e., 

with an input capacity of approximately 70,000 kBtu/hr and a cooling capacity of approximately 

3 tons). 

Table ES.3.3 Incremental Manufacturer Production Cost Results for Furnace Fans 

Used in HVAC Products Other than Oil Furnaces and Hydronic Air 

Handlers

Efficiency 

Level

(EL) Technology Option

Percent

Reduction in 

FER

Incremental 

Cost

EL0 Baseline (PSC) - -

EL1 Improved PSC 2% $2.00

EL2 PSC w/ Controls 10% $11.52

EL3 X13 45% $22.73

EL4 ECM and Multi-staging 59% $91.95

EL5 Premium ECM and Multistaging + BackwardInclined Impeller

63%* $107.20

* DOE estimates that implementing a backward inclined impeller at EL 5 results in a 10% reduction in FER from 

EL4. This is equivalent to a 4% percent reduction in FER from baseline. The total percent reduction in FER from 

baseline for EL5 includes the 59% reduction from EL4 and the 4% net reduction from the backward-inclined

impeller for a total percent reduction of 63% from baseline.
ES-11

Table ES.3.4 Incremental Manufacturer Production Cost Results for Furnace Fans 

Used in Oil Furnaces

Efficiency 

Level

(EL) Technology Option

Percent 

Reduction in 

FER

Incremental 

Cost

EL0 Baseline (PSC) - -

EL1 Improved PSC 2% $6.98

EL2 PSC w/ Controls 10% $16.24

EL3 X13 45% $37.25

EL4 ECM and Multi-staging 59% $106.62

EL5 Premium ECM and Multistating + BackwardInclined Impeller

63%* $122.01

* DOE estimates that implementing a backward inclined impeller at EL 5 results in a 10% reduction in FER from 

EL4. This is equivalent to a 4% percent reduction in FER from baseline. The total percent reduction in FER from 

baseline for EL5 includes the 59% reduction from EL4 and the 4% net reduction from the backward-inclined

impeller for a total percent reduction of 63% from baseline.

The cost-efficiency curve for furnace fans used in hydronic air handlers (heat/cool)

differs from those for furnace fans used in non-hydronic air handler products, because standby 

mode and off mode energy consumption are integrated in the rating metric, the integrated fan 

efficiency rating (IFER), for hydronic air handlers. As a result, DOE identified two additional 

efficiency levels for hydronic air handlers that are associated with technology options that reduce 

the standby mode energy consumption of hydronic air handlers. As described in the DOE 

furnace fan test procedure, DOE estimates that hydronic air handlers off mode operating hours 

and off mode energy consumption are equal to zero. In addition, manufacturers of hydronic air 

handlers are low-volume manufacturers, increasing the MPC of purchased parts. Table ES.3.5

presents the cost-efficiency curves for furnace fans used in hydronic air handlers. 
ES-12

Table ES.3.5 Incremental Manufacturer Production Cost Results for Furnace Fans 

Used in Hydronic Air Handlers

Efficiency 

Level Technology Option

Percent 

Reduction in 

IFER

Incremental 

Cost

EL0 Baseline (PSC) - -

EL1 Improved PSC 2% $6.98

EL2 PSC w/ Controls 10% $16.24

EL3 X13 45% $37.25

EL4 ECM and Multi-staging 59% $106.62

EL5 Premium ECM and Multistaging + BackwardInclined Impeller

63%* $122.01

EL6 Switching Mode Power 

Supply 64%** $129.26

EL7 Toroidal Transformer 65%** $140.21

* DOE estimates that implementing a backward inclined impeller at EL 5 results in a 10% reduction in FER from 

EL4. This is equivalent to a 4% percent reduction in FER from baseline. The total percent reduction in FER from 

baseline for EL5 includes the 59% reduction from EL4 and the 4% net reduction from the backward-inclined 

impeller for a total percent reduction of 63% from baseline.

** DOE estimates that implementing a switching mode power supply at EL 6 and a toroidal transformer at EL7 each

results in a 2% reduction in IFER from the respective previous EL (EL 5 and 6, respectively). In both cases, this is 

equivalent to a 1% percent reduction in IFER from baseline. The total percent reduction in FER from baseline for 

EL6 includes the 63% reduction from EL5 and the 1% net reduction from the switching mode power supply for a 

total percent reduction of 64% from baseline. The total percent reduction in FER from baseline for EL7 includes the 

64% reduction from EL6 and the 1% net reduction from the toroidal transformer for a total percent reduction of 65% 

from baseline.

ES.3.4 Markups Analysis

The markups analysis develops appropriate markups in the distribution chain to convert 

the estimates of manufacturer cost derived in the engineering analysis to consumer prices. 

Because a significant majority of the furnace fans covered in this rulemaking are components of 

furnaces,

2 DOE is using the same distribution channels for furnace fans as it used for furnaces in 

its 2011 rulemaking for that product.3 76 FR 37408 (June 27, 2011). DOE does not expect the 

distribution chains for furnace fans used in non-furnace HVAC products to differ significantly 

from furnace distribution chains.

DOE considered three distinct categories of market participants for furnace distribution: 

(1) distributors; (2) mechanical contractors; and (3) general contractors. DOE combined 

mechanical contractors, dealers, and installers in a single category labeled “mechanical 

contractors,” because these terms are used interchangeably by the industry. Because builders 

serve the same function in the HVAC marketplace as general contractors, DOE included the 

 2

 The term “furnace” as used by DOE in this context includes all of the key product classes being analyzed. 3 See 

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/residential_furnaces_central_ac_hp_direct_f

inal_rule_tsd.html. 
ES-13

builders in the “general contractors” category. For each type of actor in the distribution channel, 

DOE developed separate markups for baseline products (baseline markups) and for the cost 

increase associated with improvements required to produce more-efficient products (incremental 

markups). DOE also added sales tax. Table ES.3.6 summarizes the markups developed for 

furnace fans.

Table ES.3.6 Markups for Furnaces Containing Furnace Fans

Baseline Cost Incremental Cost

Manufacturer 1.26

Wholesaler 1.36 1.11

Mechanical Contractor 

(new construction/replacement) 1.44/1.55 1.15/1.23

General Contractor 

(new construction only) 1.48 1.34

Sales Tax 1.071 1.071

ES.3.5 Energy Use Analysis

The purpose of the energy use analysis is to determine the annual energy consumption of 

furnace fans in representative U.S. homes and to assess the energy savings potential of increased 

furnace fan efficiency. DOE estimated the annual energy consumption of furnace fans at the 

considered energy efficiency levels across a range of climate zones. The annual energy 

consumption includes the electricity use by the fan and the change in natural gas, liquid 

petroleum gas (LPG), electricity, or oil use for heating as a result of a change in the amount of 

useful heat provided to the conditioned space at an alternative furnace fan efficiency.

To determine the variation in field energy use by products that would meet possible 

energy efficiency standards, DOE developed a sample from the Energy Information 

Administration (EIA)’s 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS).4

To determine the energy consumption of furnace fans, DOE is using DOE’s proposed fan 

efficiency rating, along with relevant heating and cooling characteristics for each sample

household. The FER is proportional to annual energy consumption for national average operating 

conditions. It includes a time-weighted sum of the electricity consumed in key modes of 

operation.

RECS is a 

national sample survey of housing units that collects statistical information on the consumption 

of and expenditures for energy in housing units along with data on energy-related characteristics 

of the housing units and occupants. 

The electricity consumption (and overall efficiency) of a furnace fan depends on the 

speed at which the motor operates, the external static pressure difference across the fan, and the 

airflow through the fan. To calculate furnace fan electricity consumption, DOE determined the 

 4 Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (Available at: 

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs).
ES-14

operating conditions (the pressure and airflow) at which a particular furnace fan will operate in 

each RECS housing unit when performing heating, cooling, and continuous-circulation

functions.

To estimate use of continuous circulation in the sample homes, DOE evaluated the 

available studies, which include a recent survey in Minnesota,5

 a 2009 program evaluation 

report from Wisconsin,6 and 2003 Wisconsin field monitoring of residential furnaces.7

Duct pressure affects airflows and motor performance. DOE gathered field data from 

available studies and research reports to determine an appropriate probability distribution of 

external static pressure values.

DOE did 

not use these data directly, however, because it believes they are not representative of consumer 

practices for the U.S. as a whole. In these States, many homes have low air infiltration, and there 

is a high awareness of indoor air quality issues, which leads to significant use of continuous 

circulation. To develop U.S. average values, DOE modified the data from the upper Midwest 

using information from manufacturer product literature and consideration of climate conditions 

in other regions.

Table ES.3.7 shows the results of the energy use analysis for furnace fans used in nonweatherized gas furnaces, which account for 71 percent of furnace fan shipments. Similar results 

for the other key product classes are presented in chapter 7 of this TSD, along with details on the 

methods, data, and assumptions used for the energy use analysis.

The savings in Table ES.3.7 do not account for potential changes in consumer operation 

of furnace fans if they purchase a more-efficient product. There is evidence that many

homeowners who purchase ECM furnaces significantly increase the frequency with which they 

operate the furnace fan subsequent to the installation of the ECM furnace, thereby negating some 

or all of the energy savings from the more-efficient fan. After reviewing the available 

information, DOE concluded that inclusion of such a rebound effect in its analysis is warranted. 

DOE used the aforementioned report from Wisconsin8 to estimate the extent to which increased 

use of continuous circulation under a standard requiring ECM furnace fans is likely to cancel out 

some of the savings from such a fan. DOE accounts for the rebound effect in the NIA.

 5 Provided in CEE, No. 22 at pp. 1-2.

6 State of Wisconsin, Public Service Commission of Wisconsin, Focus on Energy Evaluation Semiannual Report, 

Final: April 8, 2009.

7 Pigg, S., “Electricity Use by New Furnaces: A Wisconsin Field Study” (October 2003)(Available at 

http://www.doa.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=1812). 8 State of Wisconsin, op. cit.
ES-15

Table ES.3.7 Average Annual Energy Consumption and Savings for Furnace Fans 

Used in Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Efficiency 

Level

Non- Condensing Furnace Fan Condensing Furnace Fan

Annual 

Electricity 

Use 

(kWh)

Net 

Electricity 

Use Savings 

(kWh)

Additional 

Fuel Use 

(MMBtu)

Annual 

Electricity 

Use (kWh)

Electricity 

Use 

Savings 

(kWh)

Additional 

Fuel Use 

(MMBtu)

Baseline

(PSC)

798 NA NA 768 NA 0.00

Improved 

PSC

784 13 0.00 736 32 0.00

PSC w/ 

Controls

779 19 -0.04 643 125 -0.03

X13 508 290 0.28 421 347 0.39

ECM 532 265 0.33 410 357 0.44

ECM + 

Backwardinclined

Impeller

478 319 0.36 372 396 0.48

ES.3.6 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

New and amended energy conservation standards for products result in changes in 

consumer operating expenses—usually a decrease—and changes in consumer price—usually an 

increase. DOE analyzed the net effect of potential standards on consumers by evaluating the 

LCC and PBP using the cost-efficiency relationships derived in the engineering analysis, as well 

as the energy use derived from the energy use analysis. DOE conducted the LCC and PBP 

analysis using values that reflect use of furnace fans in the field. 

DOE performed the LCC and PBP analysis using a spreadsheet model combined with 

Crystal Ball (a commercially-available software program used to conduct stochastic analysis 

using Monte Carlo simulation and probability distributions) to account for uncertainty and 

variability among the input variables. Each Monte Carlo simulation consists of 10,000 LCC and 

PBP calculations. The model performs each calculation using input values that are either 

sampled from probability distributions and household samples or characterized with single point 

values. Inputs to the LCC calculation include the installed cost to the consumer, operating costs 

(primarily energy expenses), the lifetime of the appliance, and a discount rate. 

DOE used recent energy price data from EIA to determine average residential prices of 

electricity and natural gas in 13 geographic areas. To estimate the future trends in energy prices, 
ES-16

DOE used projections from EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO 2011).9 Appropriate 

prices were assigned to each sample household based on its location.

DOE modeled furnace fan lifetime based on the distribution of furnace lifetimes

developed for the recent furnace standards rulemaking. By combining survey results from RECS

and the U.S. Census’s American Housing Survey10 with the known history of furnace shipments, 

DOE estimated the fraction of furnaces of a given age still in operation. The survival function 

provides an average and median appliance lifetime. DOE assumed that the lifetime is the same 

for furnace fans at different efficiency levels.

DOE included motor replacement as a repair cost for a fraction of furnace fans. To 

estimate rates of fan failure, DOE developed a distribution of fan motor lifetime (expressed in 

operating hours) by motor size using data from DOE’s analysis for small electric motors.

11 DOE 

then paired these data with the calculated number of annual operating hours for each sample 

furnace. Motor costs were based on costs developed in the engineering analysis. The labor time 

and unit costs were based on RS Means.12

The take-back in energy consumption associated with the rebound effect provides 

consumers with a service of value (e.g., enhanced comfort associated with the indoor 

environment). DOE used the same discount rates for furnace fans as it used in the recent 

standards rulemaking for furnaces. DOE assumes that the value of this service is equivalent to 

the monetary value of the energy savings that would have occurred without the rebound effect. 

Therefore, the economic impacts on consumers with or without the rebound effect, as measured 

in the LCC analysis, are the same.

To estimate the share of consumers that would be affected by a standard at a particular 

efficiency level, DOE projected the distribution (i.e., market shares) of product efficiencies that 

consumers may purchase under the base case (i.e., the case without new or amended energy 

efficiency standards). Trends in HVAC system efficiency influence the market shares of 

different furnace fan efficiency levels. However, DOE found very limited historical data upon 

which to estimate either current shares or recent trends. To start, DOE considered Rheem’s 

comment stating that the market share for ECM motors has increased from 10 percent to 30 

percent within the last five years. (Rheem, No. 29 at p. 3) To estimate the market share for ECM 

motors in 2018, DOE developed data on the share of models in each product class that are ECM 

design.13

 9

 See 

The resulting estimate for 2018 is a 45 percent share for ECM fans out of the overall 

market for furnace fans. The market shares of each ECM fan efficiency level are derived from 

the data on number of models. No such data were available for the PSC fan efficiency levels, so 

DOE assumed that half of shipments are at the baseline level and half are improved PSC fans. 

There are currently no models of PSC with controls design, so DOE assumed a zero market 

share.

http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview.html. 10 See http://www.census.gov/housing/ahs/ 11 See http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/sem_finalrule_tsd.html. 12 RS Means Company Inc., RS Means Residential Cost Data (2011). 13 DOE used the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) Directory of Certified Furnace 

Equipment as well as manufacturer product literature.
ES-17

Using the projected distribution of product efficiencies for each product class, DOE 

assigned a base-case fan efficiency to each sample household. If a household was assigned a 

product efficiency that is greater than or equal to the efficiency of the standard level under 

consideration, the LCC calculation would show that this household is not impacted by that 

standard level. 

Table ES.3.8 through Table ES.3.11 show key LCC and PBP results by candidate 

standard level (CSL) for furnace fans used in non-weatherized gas furnaces, electric furnaces, 

and weatherized gas furnaces. These product classes account for the majority of furnace 

shipments. Similar results for the other key product classes are presented in chapter 8 of this 

TSD, along with details on the methods, data, and assumptions used for the LCC and PBP 

analysis. The average lifetime operating cost presented in the tables reflects discounting of future 

costs using the consumer discount rates developed for the LCC analysis. 

The LCC savings are relative to the distribution of efficiencies in the base case, not to the 

baseline technology. All of the considered CSLs show large average LCC savings and have a 

median PBP well below the average lifetime of furnace fans. Figures presented in chapter 8 show 

the range of LCC savings and PBPs for all of the efficiency levels considered for each key 

product class. 

Table ES.3.8 Non-Weatherized, Non-Condensing Gas Furnace Fan: LCC and PBP 

Results

CSL

Technology

Option

Life-Cycle Cost (2011$) Life-Cycle Cost Savings

Payback 

Period 

(years)

Average 

Installed 

Cost

Average 

Lifetime 

Operating 

Cost

Average 

LCC

Average 

Savings

(2011$)

% Households with

Median

Net

Cost

No 

Impact

Net 

Benefit

0 Baseline 

(PSC)

236 1,354 1,590 N/A 0 100 0 N/A

1 Improved 

PSC

240 1,333 1,573 6 33 63 4 1.2 

2 PSC w/ 

Controls

261 1,312 1,573 7 61 26 13 8.8 

3 X13 293 967 1,260 240 24 26 50 3.7 

4 ECM 448 1,056 1,503 31 64 15 21 20.5 

5

ECM + 

BackwardInclined

Impeller

480 984 1,463 71 67 0 33 15.9 
ES-18

Table ES.3.9 Non-Weatherized, Condensing Gas Furnace Fan: LCC and PBP Results

CSL

Technology

Option

Life-Cycle Cost (2011$) Life-Cycle Cost Savings

Payback 

Period 

(years)

Average 

Installed 

Cost

Average 

Lifetime 

Operating 

Cost

Average 

LCC

Average 

Savings

(2011$)

% Households with

Median

Net

Cost

No 

Impact

Net 

Benefit

0 Baseline 

(PSC)

241 1,292 1,533 N/A 0 100 0 N/A

1 Improved 

PSC

246 1,242 1,488 10 20 76 4 0.8 

2 PSC w/ 

Controls

265 1,095 1,361 65 35 53 12 5.3 

3 X13 306 840 1,146 169 13 53 33 5.2 

4 ECM 459 884 1,344 34 54 33 13 22.8 

5

ECM + 

BackwardInclined

Impeller

491 836 1,327 51 71 0 29 17.3 

Table ES.3.10 Electric Furnace/ Modular Blower Fan: LCC and PBP Results

CSL

Technology

Option

Life-Cycle Cost (2011$) Life-Cycle Cost Savings

Payback 

Period 

(years)

Average 

Installed 

Cost

Average 

Lifetime 

Operating 

Cost

Average 

LCC

Average 

Savings

(2011$)

% Households with

Median

Net

Cost

No 

Impact

Net 

Benefit

0 Baseline 

(PSC)

207 827 1,034 N/A 0 100 0 N/A

1 Improved 

PSC

211 817 1,028 1 23 74 3 3.8 

2 PSC w/ 

Controls

231 829 1,060 -17 44 48 7 4.5 

3 X13 235 629 864 88 16 48 35 1.9 

4 ECM 388 680 1,069 -53 56 33 11 18.5 

5

ECM + 

BackwardInclined

Impeller

420 635 1,054 -38 71 0 29 14.3 
ES-19

Table ES.3.11 Weatherized Gas Furnace Fan: LCC and PBP Results

CSL

Technology

Option

Life-Cycle Cost (2011$) Life-Cycle Cost Savings

Payback 

Period 

(years)

Average 

Installed 

Cost

Average 

Lifetime 

Operating 

Cost

Average 

LCC

Average 

Savings

(2011$)

% Households with

Median

Net

Cost

No 

Impact

Net 

Benefit

0 Baseline 

(PSC)

237 1,243 1,480 N/A 0 100 0 N/A

1 Improved 

PSC

241 1,233 1,474 1 25 72 3 1.9 

2 PSC w/ 

Controls

261 1,180 1,441 18 37 44 19 4.0 

3 X13 297 820 1,117 203 7 44 49 2.6 

4 ECM 451 814 1,264 102 37 32 30 10.1 

5

ECM + 

BackwardInclined

Impeller

483 751 1,234 133 48 0 51 9.4 

ES.3.7 Shipments Analysis

Shipment forecasts are needed to calculate the national impacts of standards on energy 

use, NPV, and future manufacturer cash flows. The vast majority of furnace fans are shipped 

installed in furnaces, so DOE estimated furnace fan shipments by projecting furnace shipments 

in three market segments: (1) replacements; (2) new housing; and (3) new owners in buildings 

that did not previously have a gas furnace. 

To forecast furnace replacement shipments, DOE developed retirement functions for 

furnaces from the lifetime estimates and applied them to the existing products in the housing 

stock. The existing stock of products is tracked by vintage and developed from historical 

shipments data. To forecast shipments to the new housing market, DOE utilized forecasted new 

housing construction and historic saturation rates of various furnace and cooling product types in 

new housing. DOE used AEO 2011 for forecasts of new housing. Furnace saturation rates in 

new housing are provided by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Characteristics of New Housing.

14

Figure ES.3.3 illustrates the forecasted base-case shipments by product class.

DOE believes that, consistent with economic theory and its past practice, it is reasonable 

to expect that standards that result in higher furnace prices will have some dampening effect on 

sales. To estimate the impact of the price increase for the considered efficiency levels, DOE used 

the relative price elasticity approach that was applied in the 2011 furnace standards rulemaking. 

 14 Available at: http://www.census.gov/const/www/charindex.html.
ES-20

This approach gives some weight to the operating cost savings from higher-efficiency products. 

The impact of higher furnace prices (due to more-efficient fans) is expressed as a percentage 

drop in market share for each year during the analysis period. 

Figure ES.3.3 Forecasted Shipments for Furnaces Containing 

Furnace Fans (Base Case)

ES.3.8 National Impact Analysis

The NIA estimates the following national impacts from possible CSLs for furnace fans: 

(1) national energy savings; (2) monetary value of the energy savings due to standards; (3) 

increased total installed costs of the considered products due to standards; and (4) the NPV of the 

difference between the value of energy savings and increased total installed costs. DOE prepared 

a spreadsheet model to forecast energy savings and national consumer economic costs and 

savings resulting from new standards. In contrast to the LCC and PBP analysis, which uses

probability distributions for the inputs, the NIA uses average or typical values for inputs. 

A key component of DOE’s NIA is the energy efficiencies forecasted for the base case 

(without new standards) and each of the standards cases. To forecast the efficiency trend in the 

base case (i.e., no new standards for furnace fans), DOE derived a growth rate in the market 

share of ECM fans by extrapolating the trend from 2000, when the ECM share was near zero, to 

2010, when it was approximately 30 percent. In so doing, DOE considered the favorable costeffectiveness of ECM fans and assumed that their market share would peak and level off at 75 

percent.
ES-21

For the standards-case efficiency distributions, DOE used a “roll-up” scenario to establish 

the distribution of efficiencies for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (i.e., 

2018). DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard 

level under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level in 2018. Market shares 

that were above a given standard level before 2018 would be unaffected.

The NES account for the energy savings foregone because of the rebound effect. For the 

calculation of consumer NPV, however, DOE assumes that the value of the service provided by 

increased product utilization is equivalent to the monetary value of the energy savings that would 

have occurred without the rebound effect. Therefore, the economic impacts on consumers with

or without the rebound effect would be the same.

Chapter 10 provides additional details on the NIA.

ES.3.8.1 National Energy Savings 

DOE calculated annual NES as the difference between national energy consumption in 

the base case (without new efficiency standards) and under each CSL. Cumulative energy 

savings are the sum of the annual NES, which DOE determined for 2018−2047. 

DOE estimated energy consumption and savings based on site energy and converted the 

site energy values to primary (source) energy using factors that account for losses in transmission 

and distribution and in electricity generation. These site-to-source factors are derived from the 

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). DOE also estimated full-fuel-cycle (FFC) energy 

savings for each CSL. The full-fuel-cycle measure includes the energy consumed in extracting, 

processing, and transporting primary fuels. 

The NES results shown in Table ES.3.12 and Table ES.3.13 are shown as primary energy 

savings in quadrillion Btus (quads). Because DOE included a rebound effect for ECM furnace

fans, the savings at CSLs 3 through 5 (which require an ECM fan) reflect adjustments for the 

rebound effect. The FFC energy savings are presented in chapter 10 of the TSD.
ES-22

Table ES.3.12 National Energy Savings for Furnace Fans Used in HVAC Products 

Other than Hydronic Air Handlers (quads)

Key Product Class Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Improved 

PSC

PSC w/ 

Controls

X13 ECM and 

Multistaging

Premium 

ECM and 

Multistaging + 

Backward

-inclined

Impeller

Non-Weatherized, Non-Condensing 

Gas Furnace Fan

0.022 0.061 0.725 0.624 0.850

Non-Weatherized, Condensing Gas 

Furnace Fan

0.041 0.265 0.623 0.611 0.911

Weatherized Gas Furnace Fan 0.002 0.019 0.122 0.143 0.200

Oil Furnace Fan 0.004 0.032 0.042 0.045 0.051

Electric Furnace / Modular Blower Fan 0.003 -0.005 0.102 0.085 0.162

Manufactured Home NonWeatherized, Non-Condensing Gas 

Furnace Fan

0.001 0.010 0.018 0.024 0.026

Manufactured Home NonWeatherized, Condensing Gas Furnace 

Fan

0.001 0.008 0.010 0.017 0.019

Manufactured Home Electric Furnace / 

Modular Blower Fan

0.000 0.007 0.013 0.023 0.031

Table ES.3.13 National Energy Savings for Furnace Fans Used in Hydronic Air 

Handlers (quads)

Key Product 

Class

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Improved 

PSC

PSC w/ 

Controls

X13 ECM

and 

Multistaging

Premium 

ECM and 

Multistaging + 

Backwardinclined

Impeller

Switching 

Mode 

Power 

Supply

Toroidal 

Transformer

Hydronic Air 

Handler Fan 

(Heat/Cool)

0.000 0.000 0.016 0.030 0.034 0.037 0.039

ES.3.8.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits

DOE calculated net monetary savings in each year as the difference between total savings 

in operating costs and increases in total equipment costs in the base case and standards cases. 

DOE calculated savings over the life of the products purchased in the forecast period. The NPV 

is the difference between the present value of operating cost savings and the present value of 
ES-23

increased total installed costs. In accordance with guidance provided by the Office of 

Management and Budget (OMB) to Federal agencies on regulatory analysis, DOE used discount 

rates of 7 percent and 3 percent to discount future costs and savings to the present. The NPV 

results by key product class are shown in Table ES.3.14 through Table ES.3.17. A negative NPV 

indicates that the costs of a standard at a given efficiency level exceed the savings.

Table ES.3.14 Net Present Value, Discounted at 3 Percent, for Furnace Fans Used in 

HVAC Products Other than Hydronic Air Handlers (billion 2011$)

Key Product Class Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Improved 

PSC

PSC w/ 

Controls

X13 ECM

and 

Multistaging

Premium 

ECM and 

Multistaging + 

Backward

-Inclined

Impeller

Non-Weatherized, Non-Condensing Gas 

Furnace Fan

0.110 0.048 4.462 0.551 1.395

Non-Weatherized, Condensing Gas 

Furnace Fan

0.254 1.559 4.449 0.089 0.944

Weatherized Gas Furnace Fan 0.006 0.083 0.842 0.382 0.581

Oil Furnace Fan 0.023 0.204 0.135 -0.038 -0.058

Electric Furnace / Modular Blower Fan 0.010 -0.118 0.601 -0.558 -0.406

Manufactured Home Non-Weatherized, 

Non-Condensing Gas Furnace Fan

0.003 0.021 0.044 -0.060 -0.066

Manufactured Home Non-Weatherized, 

Condensing Gas Furnace Fan

0.005 0.035 0.046 -0.103 -0.124

Manufactured Home Electric Furnace / 

Modular Blower Fan

-0.001 0.009 0.038 -0.093 -0.046

Table ES.3.15 Net Present Value, Discounted at 3 Percent, for Furnace Fans Used in 

Hydronic Air Handlers (billion 2011$)

Key Product 

Class

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Improved 

PSC

PSC w/ 

Controls

X13 ECM

and 

Multistaging

Premium 

ECM and 

Multistaging + 

Backward

-Inclined

Impeller

Switching 

Mode 

Power 

Supply

Toroidal

Transformer

Hydronic Air 

Handler Fan 

(Heat/Cool)

0.000 -0.023 0.091 0.112 0.132 0.149 0.144
ES-24

Table ES.3.16 Net Present Value, Discounted at 7 Percent, for Furnace Fans Used in 

HVAC Products Other than Hydronic Air Handlers (billion 2011$)

Key Product Class Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Improved 

PSC

PSC w/ 

Controls

X13 ECM and 

Multistaging

Premium 

ECM and 

Multistaging + 

Backward

-Inclined

Impeller

Non-Weatherized, Non-Condensing 

Gas Furnace Fan

0.036 -0.034 1.553 -0.278 -0.077

Non-Weatherized, Condensing Gas 

Furnace Fan

0.095 0.564 1.618 -0.505 -0.392

Weatherized Gas Furnace Fan 0.002 0.027 0.340 0.081 0.131

Oil Furnace Fan 0.007 0.070 0.035 -0.049 -0.063

Electric Furnace / Modular Blower Fan 0.003 -0.059 0.229 -0.343 -0.329

Manufactured Home NonWeatherized, Non-Condensing Gas 

Furnace Fan

0.001 0.004 0.011 -0.049 -0.054

Manufactured Home NonWeatherized, Condensing Gas Furnace 

Fan

0.002 0.013 0.016 -0.067 -0.080

Manufactured Home Electric Furnace / 

Modular Blower Fan

-0.001 -0.001 0.009 -0.072 -0.055

Table ES.3.17 Net Present Value, Discounted at 7 Percent, for Furnace Fans Used in 

Hydronic Air Handlers (billion 2011$)

Key Product 

Class

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Improved 

PSC

PSC w/ 

Controls

X13 ECM

and 

Multistaging

Premium 

ECM and 

Multistaging + 

Backward

-Inclined

Impeller

Switching 

Mode 

Power 

Supply

Toroidal 

Transformer

Hydronic Air 

Handler Fan 

(Heat/Cool)

0.000 -0.012 0.031 0.028 0.034 0.040 0.036

ES.3.9 Preliminary Manufacturer Impact Analysis

The preliminary MIA focuses on manufacturers of the residential HVAC products in 

which furnace fans are used (i.e., furnaces, modular blowers, and hydronic air handlers). 

Potential impacts include financial effects, both quantitative and qualitative, that might result 

from new energy conservation standards and consequently lead to changes in manufacturing 

practices for residential furnace fans. DOE identified potential impacts through interviews with 
ES-25

manufacturers and other interested parties. Chapter 12 of the preliminary TSD includes details on 

the key issues DOE identified during the preliminary MIA, which include the following:

• Regulation of components, as opposed to the overall system;

• Certification and reporting requirements;

• Impacts on consumers;

• Impacts on the PSC market; and 

• Cumulative regulatory burden.

During the preliminary analysis stage, DOE conducted the preliminary MIA by first 

identifying products, methods, and practices used in the residential furnace fan industries. Next, 

DOE interviewed manufacturers for feedback. DOE developed and distributed a questionnaire 

for use during the interviews. In the interviews, DOE gathered information to help determine 

how energy efficiency improvements affect cost, production, and various other manufacturing 

metrics. DOE also examined any additional effects on competition, manufacturing capacity, 

direct employment, and the cumulative burden of other regulations affecting manufacturers, as 

well as several issues raised by individual manufacturers. DOE considered feedback received 

during interviews in its analysis.

ES.4 ISSUES ON WHICH DOE SEEKS PUBLIC COMMENT

DOE is interested in receiving comments on all aspects of this preliminary analysis. DOE 

especially invites comments or data to improve DOE’s analysis, including data or information 

that will respond to the following questions or concerns that were raised in response to the 

Framework Document and in preparation of the preliminary TSD.

ES.4.1 Market and Energy Performance Data for Non-Key Product Classes

DOE identified 21 product classes for this rulemaking, which are listed in section 

ES.3.3.1. For those product classes not among the nine key product classes, DOE was unable to 

find sufficient market and energy performance data to estimate cost and FER or IFER. DOE 

requests comments and data regarding the market for these products and their expected energy 

performance. Specifically, DOE requests market data regarding historical and future shipments 

and energy performance data to estimate FER or IFER (i.e., measurements of airflow and 

electrical energy consumption in each airflow-control setting from 0 in.w.c. to 0.7 in.w.c. ESP).

ES.4.2 Efficiency as a Function of Capacity

DOE recognizes that furnace fans used in higher-capacity HVAC products consume more 

energy annually. DOE expects that the proposed rating metrics, FER and IFER, will not be 

dependent on capacity because they are normalized by airflow in the maximum airflow-capacity 

setting, which is dictated by the heating or cooling capacity of the HVAC product. DOE 

requests comments on the validity of these assumptions. 
ES-26

ES.4.3 Inverter-Driven PSC Fan Motors

DOE identified and used in its analyses a technology option that was once commercially 

available in a product but that is no longer for sale. This technology constitutes use of an 

inverter to drive a PSC motor. DOE’s analysis shows that this technology can save energy, so 

DOE included it in the engineering analysis. DOE seeks comment on this technology and 

requests data regarding its energy performance and costs.

ES.4.4 Fan Motor Turndown Ratio

DOE recognizes that significant power reduction potentially occurs when the fan is 

operating in its lowest airflow-control setting. Consequently, DOE expects that furnace fans that 

can achieve a high turndown ratio will consume significantly less energy over a typical operating 

period. DOE seeks comment on the typical turndown ratios that can be achieved technically and 

in practice by each motor technology (i.e., baseline PSC, improved PSC, inverter-driven PSC, 

constant-torque ECM, and constant-airflow ECM).

ES.4.5 Proprietary Electronically-Commutated Motor Technology

DOE recognizes that Regal Beloit possesses a number of patents in the brushless directcurrent motor space. However, DOE is aware that other motor manufacturers, such as Broad 

Ocean, also offer brushless DC models. DOE also expects that manufacturers have the ability to 

use alternative designs to achieve the identified efficiency levels without using Regal Beloit’s 

patented technology, such as ECMs with controls designed in-house. DOE seeks comment on 

the validity of its premise that alternative motor technologies can achieve comparable 

performance (turndown ratios and efficiency) at comparable cost to the Regal Beloit technology 

and that they will become increasingly available.

ES.4.6 High-Efficiency Fan Motor Control Costs

DOE recognizes that higher-efficiency motors require more sophisticated controls. DOE 

requests comments on whether more costly primary control boards are required to be paired with 

higher-efficiency motors. 

ES.4.7 Backward-Inclined Impellers

DOE is including backward-inclined impellers as a technology option for the preliminary 

analysis. DOE was unable to find a commercially-available residential HVAC product that 

incorporates a backward-inclined impeller. However, DOE is aware of research performed by 

General Electric and testing performed at national laboratories that include evaluation of a series 

of prototype residential furnaces that include a backward-inclined impellers.

15

 15 Wiegman, Herman (2003). Final Report for the Variable Speed Integrated Intelligent HVAC Blower.

The results of 

these tests show that backward-inclined impellers can improve furnace fan efficiency

considerably, but the designs appear to reduce energy use for some operating conditions, but not 

for others. A proper evaluation of the technology will require a more careful review of the data 
ES-27

and the range of furnace fan operating requirements. However, for the preliminary analysis, DOE 

used a fixed 10-percent reduction in FER to evaluate the technology. According to feedback 

from manufacturers, the efficiency improvement of backward-inclined impellers may be much 

lower, less than 5 percent. DOE seeks comment on the expected efficiency improvements across 

the range of operating conditions in residential applications. DOE also seeks comment on which 

operating conditions result in favorable and unfavorable performance for furnace fans that use 

backward-inclined impellers. Manufacturers also mention a number of technical issues and 

design constraints associated with backward-inclined impellers. DOE recognizes that there are a 

number of technical hurdles to cost-effectively incorporate backward-inclined impellers in 

furnace fans. DOE seeks comment on whether design modifications or specialized components, 

such as fan motors with unique specifications (e.g., high RPM), are necessary to implement 

backward-inclined impellers. DOE seeks comment on whether backward-inclined impellers are 

incompatible with the designs or components currently used in furnace fans. In addition, DOE 

seeks comment on whether use of backward-inclined impellers could impact product offerings. 

DOE seeks comment on the potential costs associated with implementing backward-inclined

impellers. Detailed discussions regarding the backward-inclined impeller technology and how 

DOE is including them in the preliminary analysis can be found in chapters 3 and 5 of this TSD. 

ES.4.8 Airflow Path Design

DOE recognizes that the airflow path design of the HVAC product in which the furnace 

fan is used impacts efficiency. DOE also recognizes that alterations to the design and 

configuration of internal components, such as the heat exchanger, could impact the thermal 

performance of the HVAC product. DOE plans to conduct its analyses carefully to ensure that 

tradeoffs between airflow performance and thermal performance are well understood and do not 

result in reduced overall system efficiency. While DOE did account for the impacts of airflow 

path design in the proposed test procedure and other aspects of the preliminary analyses (e.g.,

product class selection), DOE did not consider airflow path design as a technology option. DOE 

anticipates that the size of the cabinet and the geometry of the heat exchanger(s) would be the 

primary targets for improvement in airflow path design. DOE did not include modeled cost and 

efficiency data for modifications to the cabinet size or heat exchanger geometry, because DOE 

expects that a model that could ensure that tradeoffs between airflow efficiency and thermal 

efficiency do not reduce the overall system efficiency would be overly complex. In addition, 

DOE expects that the costs for these improvements could be prohibitive and result in little 

airflow efficiency improvement compared to the other technology options mentioned in this 

TSD. Lastly, HVAC products that use furnace fans have space constraints. Any increase in 

overall size of the product could reduce utility to the consumer by potentially reducing or 

eliminating product availability for certain applications. DOE seeks comment on airflow path 

design changes that could result in improved airflow efficiency. DOE also seeks comment on 

the expected cost and efficiency improvement of these airflow path design improvements. In 

addition, DOE seeks comment or data on the expected tradeoffs between airflow efficiency and 

thermal efficiency for these design changes. 
ES-28

ES.4.9 Distribution Channel and Market Share of Replacement Furnace Fans

DOE understands that the market for replacement fans is very small, and it has not 

included this distribution channel in the preliminary analysis. DOE requests comments regarding 

whether this channel is large enough to merit inclusion, and, if so, what would be an appropriate 

assumption for its market share.

ES.4.10 Continuous-Circulation Operation

To estimate use of continuous circulation in the sample homes, DOE evaluated the 

available studies, as described in section ES.3.5. DOE did not use these data directly, however, 

because it believes they are not representative of consumer practices for the U.S. as a whole. In 

these States, many homes have low air infiltration, and there is a high awareness of indoor air 

quality issues, which leads to significant use of continuous circulation. To develop U.S. average 

values, DOE modified the data from the upper Midwest using information from manufacturer 

product literature and consideration of climate conditions in other regions. The continuouscirculation hours that DOE used are described in chapter 7 of this TSD. DOE requests comments 

on its characterization of use of continuous circulation, and information that would support use 

of alternative assumptions.

ES.4.11 Rebound Effect on Energy Savings from Higher-Efficiency Furnace Fans

After reviewing the available information, DOE concluded that inclusion of a rebound 

effect in its analysis is warranted. DOE used the aforementioned evaluation report from 

Wisconsin to estimate the fraction of households that may change to use of continuous 

circulation under a standard requiring ECM furnace fans, which would cancel out some of the 

savings from such a fan. The specific assumptions are described in chapter 7 of this TSD. DOE 

requests comments on the reasonableness of the values that it used to characterize this rebound 

effect.

ES.4.12 Base-Case Furnace Fan Efficiency Distribution in 2018 (LCC Analysis)

Trends in HVAC system efficiency influence the market shares of different furnace fan 

efficiency levels. However, DOE found very limited historical data upon which to estimate either 

current shares or recent trends. To estimate the market share for ECM motors in 2018, DOE 

developed data on the share of models in each product class that are ECM design. The resulting 

estimate for 2018 is a 45 percent share for ECM fans out of the overall market for furnace fans. 

The market shares of each ECM fan efficiency level are derived from the data on number of 

models. No such data were available for the PSC fan efficiency levels, so DOE assumed that half 

of shipments are at the baseline level and half are improved PSC fans. DOE requests comments 

on its estimate of the base-case efficiency distribution of furnace fans in 2018 and data that might 

support use of different assumptions.
ES-29

ES.4.13 Furnace Fan Efficiency Trends in the Absence of Standards (NIA)

Trends in HVAC equipment efficiency are a major factor driving furnace fan efficiency. 

However, it is uncertain to what extent incentives will play a role after 2018 and to what degree 

future standards for residential HVAC products will require high-efficiency furnace fans. For 

this preliminary analysis, DOE derived a growth rate in the market share of ECM fans by 

extrapolating the trend from 2000, when the ECM share was near zero, to 2010, when it was 

approximately 30 percent. In so doing, DOE considered the favorable cost-effectiveness of ECM 

fans and assumed that their market share would peak and level off at 75 percent. DOE requests 

comments on the reasonableness of its approach and information that would support use of 

alternative assumptions.

ES.4.14 Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Savings

DOE has historically presented NES in terms of primary energy savings. DOE recently 

published a Notice of Policy (NOP) stating its intent to incorporate full-fuel-cycle (FFC) metrics 

into its analyses and outlining a proposed approach. The methodology is based on the calculation 

of an FFC multiplier, or conversion factor, for each of the primary fuels used by covered 

products. The FFC energy savings are obtained by multiplying the energy savings calculated in 

the NIA by the conversion factor. The NOP states that DOE intends to calculate FFC energy and 

emission impacts by applying conversion factors generated by the Greenhouse house gases, 

regulated emissions, and energy use in transportation (GREET) model to the NEMS-based 

results currently used by DOE. 76 FR 51281 (Aug. 18, 2011). Additionally, DOE will review 

alternative approaches to estimating these factors and may decide to use a model other than 

GREET to estimate the FFC energy and emission impacts in any particular future appliance 

efficiency standards rulemaking. For this preliminary analysis, DOE calculated FFC energy 

savings using a NEMS-based methodology described in appendix 10-B of the TSD. DOE 

welcomes comments on its approach to derive FFC conversion factors.