APPENDIX 10B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACT

ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

**10B.1 INTRODUCTION**  **.................................................................................................10B­1**

**10B.2 STANDARDS**  **CASE EFFICACY**  **FORECAST, LAMP**  **STOCK AND** 

**LUMEN OUTPUT.................................................................................................10B­1** 

**10B.3 NATIONAL**  **ENERGY SAVINGS**  **AND NET**  **PRESENT VALUE**  **RESULTS..10B­7**

LIST OF TABLES

**Table 10B.2.1**  **Commercial Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps:**  **Base Case**  **and Standards** 

**Case (65W**  **BR Lamp**  **Substitution Sensitivity)**  **Efficacy Distributions** 

**from 2012**  **to 2042......................................................................................10B­1** 

**Table 10B.2.2**  **Residential Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps:**  **Base Case**  **and Standards**  **Case**

**(65W BR**  **Lamp Substitution**  **Sensitivity) Efficacy**  **Distributions from** 

**2012 to**  **2042 ..............................................................................................10B­2** 

**Table 10B.2.3**  **Residential Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps:**  **Base Case**  **and Standards**  **Case**

**(10 Percent**  **Lumen Increase**  **Sensitivity) Efficacy**  **Distributions from** 

**2012 to**  **2042 ..............................................................................................10B­2** 

**Table 10B.3.1**  **Cumulative National**  **Energy Savings**  **for Commercial**  **IRL (65W**  **BR**

**Lamp Substitution**  **Sensitivity) (2012­2042)**  **(quads) ................................10B­8** 

**Table 10B.3.2**  **Cumulative National**  **Energy Savings**  **for Residential**  **IRL (65W**  **BR Lamp** 

**Substitution Sensitivity)**  **(2012­2042) (quads)..........................................10B­8** 

**Table 10B.3.3**  **Cumulative National**  **Energy Savings**  **for Residential**  **IRL (10**  **Percent**

**Lumen Increase**  **Sensitivity) (2012­2042)**  **(quads) ...................................10B­8** 

**Table 10B.3.4**  **Cumulative NPV**  **Results for**  **Commercial IRL**  **(65W BR**  **Lamp**

**Substitution Sensitivity)**  **(billion 2006$)....................................................10B­9** 

**Table 10B.3.5**  **Cumulative NPV**  **Results for**  **Residential IRL**  **(65W BR**  **Lamp**

**Substitution Sensitivity)**  **(billion 2006$)....................................................10B­9** 

**Table 10B.3.6**  **Cumulative NPV**  **Results for**  **Residential IRL**  **(10 Percent**  **Lumen Increase** 

**Sensitivity) (billion**  **2006$)........................................................................10B­9**

LIST OF FIGURES

**Figure 10B.2.1**  **Average Efficacy**  **of the**  **Commercial IRL**  **Stock (65W**  **BR Lamp** 

**Substitution Sensitivity).............................................................................10B­3** 

**Figure 10B.2.2**  **Average Efficacy**  **of the**  **Residential IRL**  **Stock (65W**  **BR Lamp** 

**Substitution Sensitivity).............................................................................10B­4** 

**Figure 10B.2.3**  **Average Efficacy**  **of the**  **Residential IRL**  **Stock (10**  **Percent Lumen** 

**Increase Sensitivity)...................................................................................10B­5** 

**10B­i Figure**  **10B.2.4 Commercial**  **IRL Lumens**  **Serviced (65W**  **BR Lamp**  **Substitution**

**Sensitivity) .................................................................................................10B­6** 

**Figure 10B.2.5**  **Residential IRL**  **Lumens Serviced**  **(65W BR**  **Lamp Substitution** 

**Sensitivity) .................................................................................................10B­6** 

**Figure 10B.2.6**  **Residential IRL**  **Lumens Serviced**  **(10 Percent**  **Lumen Increase** 

**Sensitivity) .................................................................................................10B­7** 

**10B­ii**APPENDIX 10B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACTS

ANALYSIS

10B.1 INTRODUCTION

**In this**  **appendix, DOE**  **presents inputs**  **and results**  **for two**  **additional IRL**  **sensitivities.**

**DOE presents**  **the efficacy**  **forecast, lamp**  **stock, lumen**  **output, NES**  **and NPV**  **results for**  **the IRL** 

**65W BR**  **lamp substitution**  **sensitivity and**  **for the**  **IRL 10**  **percent lumen**  **increase sensitivity.** 

10B.2 STANDARDS CASE EFFICACY FORECAST, LAMP STOCK AND LUMEN

OUTPUT

**A key**  **aspect of**  **DOE’s estimates**  **of NES**  **and NPV**  **is the**  **proportions of**  **future lamp** 

**shipments meeting**  **different efficacies**  **for the**  **base case**  **(without new**  **standards) and**  **each of**  **the**

**standards cases**  **(with new**  **standards). Because**  **key inputs**  **to the**  **calculation of**  **the NES**  **and**

**NPV are**  **dependent on**  **the estimate**  **of the**  **efficacies shipped**  **and efficacies**  **in the**  **stock, it**  **is**

**important to**  **know the**  **projected efficacy­distribution**  **of lamp**  **shipments. Table**  **10B.2.1 presents** 

**the efficacy**  **distribution of**  **lamp shipments**  **for commercial**  **IRL under**  **the 65W**  **BR lamp** 

**substitution sensitivity.** 

Table 10B.2.1 Commercial Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Base Case and Standards Case

(65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity) Efficacy Distributions from 2012 to 2042

Year Level Technology Proportions of Commercial IRL

Shipped (%)

Base

Case Standards Case

(65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity)

1 2 3

**65W BR**  **Incandescent 0**  **10 10**  **21**

**Baseline Halogen**  **82**

**­ ­**  **­**

2012 **1 Improved** 

**Halogen 0**  **70**

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **18 20**  **90**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **HIR 0**  **0 0**  **79**

Total 100 100 100 100

**65W BR**  **Incandescent 0**  **10 10**  **24**

**Baseline Halogen**  **54**

**­ ­**  **­**

2042 **1 Improved** 

**Halogen 0**  **45**

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **46 45**  **90**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **HIR 0**  **0 0**  **76**

Total 100 100 100 100

**10B­1 Table**  **10B.2.2 presents**  **the efficacy**  **distribution of**  **lamp shipments**  **for residential**  **IRL under**  **the**

**65W BR**  **lamp substitution**  **sensitivity.**

Table 10B.2.2 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Base Case and Standards Case

(65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity) Efficacy Distributions from 2012 to 2042

Year Level Technology Proportions of Residential IRL Shipped

Base

Case Standards Case

(65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity)

1 2 3

**65W BR**  **Incandescent 0**  **7 7**  **14**

**Baseline Halogen**  **100**

**­ ­**  **­**

2012 **1 Improved** 

**Halogen 0**  **83**

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **0 0**  **83**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **HIR 0**  **0 0**  **86**

Total 100 100 100 100

**65W BR**  **Incandescent 0**  **10 10**  **28**

**Baseline Halogen**  **100**

**­ ­**  **­**

2042 **1 Improved** 

**Halogen 0**  **90**

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **0 0**  **90**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **HIR 0**  **0 0**  **72**

Total 100 100 100 100

**Table 10B.2.3**  **presents the**  **efficacy distribution**  **of lamp**  **shipments for**  **residential IRL**  **under the** 

**10 percent**  **lumen increase**  **sensitivity.**

Table 10B.2.3 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Base Case and Standards Case

(10 Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity) Efficacy Distributions from 2012 to 2042

Year Level Technology Proportions of Residential IRL Shipped

Base

Case Standards Case

(10 percent Lumen Increase

Sensitivity)

1 2 3

**Baseline Halogen**  **100**

**­ ­**  **­**

2012

to

2042 **1 Improved** 

**Halogen 0**  **100**

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **0 0**  **100**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **HIR 0**  **0 0**  **100**

Total 100 100 100 100

**The calculation**  **of the**  **NES and**  **NPV is**  **dependent on**  **the estimate**  **of the**  **average efficacy** 

**in the**  **lamp stock.**  **The following**  **figures present**  **the average**  **efficacy of**  **the IRL**  **stock for**  **each**

**CSL under**  **the two**  **sensitivity scenarios.**  **The average**  **efficacy numbers**  **do not**  **include stock** 

**10B­2 moving**  **to reflector**  **CFL or**  **other emerging**  **technologies overtime.**  **Figure 10B.2.1**  **and Figure** 

**10B.2.2 present**  **the base**  **case and**  **standards case**  **average efficacy**  **forecasts of**  **IRL in**  **the**

**commercial and**  **residential sectors,**  **respectively, from**  **2012 to**  **2042 under**  **the 65W**  **BR lamp** 

**substitution sensitivity.**  **Though 65W**  **BR30 and**  **BR40 lamps**  **are not**  **considered to**  **be covered** 

**IRL product,**  **the average**  **efficacy forecasts**  **below include**  **both covered**  **IRL product**  **and lower** 

**efficacy incandescent**  **65W BR30**  **lamp.**

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20AverageEfficacy(lm/W)

Base­Case Efficacy Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.1 Average Efficacy of the Commercial IRL Stock (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity)

**10B­3**0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20AverageEfficacy(lm/W)

Base­Case Efficacy Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.2 Average Efficacy of the Residential IRL Stock (65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity)

**Figure 10B.2.2**  **presents the**  **base case**  **and standards**  **case efficacy**  **distribution of**  **the residential** 

**IRL stock**  **from 2012**  **to 2042**  **under the**  **10 percent**  **lumen increase**  **sensitivity.**

**10B­4**0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20AverageEfficacy(lm/W)

Base­Case Efficacy Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.3 Average Efficacy of the Residential IRL Stock (10 Percent Lumen Increase

Sensitivity)

**Changes in**  **efficacy can**  **lead to**  **changes in**  **lumen output.**  **For IRL,**  **the average**  **lumen output** 

**numbers do**  **not include**  **stock moving**  **to reflector**  **CFL or**  **other emerging**  **technologies overtime.** 

**Figure 10B.2.4**  **presents the**  **lumens serviced**  **in the**  **base case**  **and standards**  **case by**  **the**

**commercial IRL**  **stock under**  **the 65W**  **BR lamp**  **substitution sensitivity**  **from 2012**  **to 2042.** 

**Figure 10B.2.4**  **presents the**  **lumens serviced**  **in the**  **base case**  **and standards**  **case by**  **the**

**residential IRL**  **stock under**  **the 65W**  **BR lamp**  **substitution sensitivity**  **from 2012**  **to 2042.** 

**10B­5**0.0E+00 1.0E+10 2.0E+10 3.0E+10 4.0E+10 5.0E+10 6.0E+10 7.0E+10 8.0E+10 9.0E+10LumensServiced(lm)

Base­Case Lumen Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.4 Commercial IRL Lumens Serviced (65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

3.5E+11

3.0E+11LumensServiced(lm) 2.5E+11

2.0E+11

1.5E+11

1.0E+11

5.0E+10

0.0E+00 Base­Case Lumen Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.5 Residential IRL Lumens Serviced (65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

**10B­6 Figure**  **10B.2.6 presents**  **the lumens**  **serviced in**  **the base**  **case and**  **standards case**  **by the** 

**residential IRL**  **stock under**  **the 10**  **percent lumen**  **increase sensitivity**  **from 2012**  **to 2042.** 

0.0E+00 5.0E+10 1.0E+11 1.5E+11 2.0E+11 2.5E+11 3.0E+11 3.5E+11LumensServiced(lm)

Base­Case Lumen Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045



### Year

Figure 10B.2.6 Residential IRL Lumens Serviced (10 Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

10B.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

**The following**  **tables provide**  **NES results**  **for each**  **CSL considered**  **for incandescent** 

**reflector lamps**  **under the**  **65W BR**  **lamp substitution**  **and 10**  **percent lumen**  **increase sensitivities.** 

**Results are**  **cumulative to**  **2042 and**  **are shown**  **as primary**  **energy savings**  **in units**  **of quads.**  **In**

**general, both**  **of these**  **sensitivity scenarios**  **reflect lower**  **energy savings**  **than the**  **main shipment** 

**scenario, as**  **both sensitivities**  **incorporate higher­wattage**  **or same­wattage**  **lamp designs.**  **In**

**contrast, the**  **main shipment**  **scenario utilizes**  **reduced­wattage lamp**  **designs.**

**10B­7**Table 10B.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Commercial IRL (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity) (2012­2042) (quads)

Candidate Standard

Level NES

quads

Undiscounted Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

**1 0.36**  **0.12 0.21** 

**2 0.70**  **0.23 0.41** 

**3 0.85**  **0.27 0.50** 

Table 10B.3.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Residential IRL (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity) (2012­2042) (quads)

Candidate Standard

Level NES

quads

Undiscounted Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

**1 0.51**  **0.15 0.29** 

**2 0.92**  **0.27 0.52** 

**3 1.04**  **0.30 0.59** 

Table 10B.3.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Residential IRL (10 Percent

Lumen Increase Sensitivity) (2012­2042) (quads)

Candidate Standard

Level NES

quads

Undiscounted Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

**1 0.47**  **0.14 0.26** 

**2 0.72**  **0.21 0.41** 

**3 1.07**  **0.31 0.60** 

**The following**  **tables provides**  **NPV results**  **for the**  **candidate standards**  **levels considered** 

**for incandescent**  **reflector lamps**  **under the**  **65W BR**  **lamp substitution**  **and 10**  **percent lumen** 

**increase sensitivities.**  **Results are**  **cumulative and**  **are shown**  **as the**  **discounted value**  **of these** 

**savings in**  **dollar terms.** 

**10B­8**Table 10B.3.4 Cumulative NPV Results for Commercial IRL (65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity) (billion 2006$)

Candidate Standard

Level NPV

billion 2006$

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

**1 0.74**  **1.35**

**2 1.43**  **2.64**

**3 2.55**  **4.75**

Table 10B.3.5 Cumulative NPV Results for Residential IRL (65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity) (billion 2006$)

Candidate Standard

Level NPV

billion 2006$

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

**1 1.13**  **2.29**

**2 2.21**  **4.41**

**3 3.07**  **6.15**

Table 10B.3.6 Cumulative NPV Results for Residential IRL (10 Percent Lumen Increase

Sensitivity) (billion 2006$)

Candidate Standard

Level NPV

billion 2006$

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

**1 0.82**  **1.73**

**2 1.44**  **2.96**

**3 2.76**  **5.64**

**10B­9**