**Base Case w ith 316(b) regulation** 

**2016 2018**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2040**  **2050**

**U.S. Natural Gas Supply , Disposition, and Prices** 

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Production

Dry Gas Production 24.93 25.31 26.68 29.32 31.90 38.04 41.82

Conventional 7.33 7.08 7.02 6.99 6.87 8.12 7.73

Unconventional 17.59 18.23 19.66 22.33 25.03 29.92 34.09

Supplemental Natural Gas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Net Imports

Pipeline 0.79 0.33 (0.27) (0.90) (1.03) (0.26) 1.13

Liquefied Natural Gas 0.06 (0.16) (0.09) (0.96) (1.45) (1.47) (1.45)

**Total Supply 25.77**  **25.48 26.32**  **27.46 29.42**  **36.31 41.51** 

Demand

Firm 8.67 8.75 8.82 9.05 9.44 10.78 11.17

Interruptible 6.82 6.88 6.92 7.14 7.55 8.61 9.28

Electric Power 8.27 7.83 8.38 8.91 9.93 14.06 18.03

Pipeline and Storage Fuel 0.71 0.69 0.72 0.77 0.81 0.93 0.94

Lease and Plant Fuel 1.29 1.31 1.46 1.57 1.67 1.91 2.05

Net Storage Injection 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03

**Total Demand 25.77**  **25.48 26.32**  **27.46 29.42**  **36.31 41.51** 

Natural Gas Prices

(2011 dollars per million Btu)

Henry Hub Spot Price 4.33 4.96 4.99 5.69 6.00 6.56 8.65

Lower-48 Average Wellhead Price 4.13 4.73 4.75 5.39 5.61 6.06 8.00

Lower-48 Average Citygate Price 4.70 5.33 5.33 6.07 6.33 6.85 8.81

**U.S. Natural Gas Production by Supply**  **Region**

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Dry Production (trillion cubic feet)

Lower-48 24.79 25.18 26.45 29.10 31.69 37.84 41.65

Conventional 7.20 6.94 6.79 6.76 6.66 7.92 7.55

Unconventional 17.59 18.23 19.66 22.33 25.03 29.92 34.09

Alaska 0.13 0.13 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.18

Conventional 0.13 0.13 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.18

Unconventional

- - - - - - -

U.S. Total 24.93 25.31 26.68 29.32 31.90 38.04 41.82

Conventional 7.33 7.08 7.02 6.99 6.87 8.12 7.73

Unconventional 17.59 18.23 19.66 22.33 25.03 29.92 34.09

Lower-48 Onshore

Northeast 4.06 4.25 4.63 5.43 6.39 8.76 11.44

Conventional 0.45 0.48 0.47 0.44 0.39 0.30 0.23

Unconventional 3.61 3.77 4.16 4.99 6.00 8.46 11.22

Gulf Coast 8.07 8.55 9.26 10.42 11.30 12.33 12.85

Conventional 1.52 1.61 1.66 1.65 1.51 1.45 1.47

Unconventional 6.56 6.94 7.59 8.77 9.79 10.89 11.38

Midcontinent 3.01 3.06 3.25 3.50 3.70 4.20 4.42

Conventional 1.19 1.22 1.24 1.20 1.09 0.90 0.77

Unconventional 1.83 1.84 2.02 2.30 2.61 3.30 3.65

Southwest 2.68 2.76 2.83 2.86 2.71 2.29 1.86

Conventional 0.94 0.93 0.90 0.83 0.73 0.55 0.40

Unconventional 1.74 1.83 1.93 2.02 1.99 1.74 1.46

Rocky Mountain 4.89 4.94 5.06 5.36 5.70 6.57 7.15

Conventional 1.04 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.07 1.04 0.96

Unconventional 3.85 3.85 3.95 4.23 4.63 5.53 6.19

West Coast 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.38

Conventional 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.21 0.18

Unconventional 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.20

Lower-48 Offshore (Conventional)

Gulf 1.85 1.38 1.16 1.26 1.63 3.47 3.55

Pacific 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Atlantic

- - - - - - -

**Gas End-of-Year Reserves and A nnual Reserve A**  **dditions**

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050**Base Case w ith 316(b) regulation** 

**2016 2018**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2040**  **2050**

**U.S. Natural Gas Supply , Disposition, and Prices** 

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)

U.S. Reserves

Dry Natural Gas (trillion cubic feet)

Lower-48 Onshore 359.2 368.4 406.8 456.8 494.6 615.9 664.5

Conventional 50.8 50.9 49.4 45.8 39.6 34.7 30.7

Unconventional 308.4 317.5 357.4 410.9 455.0 581.3 633.8

Lower-48 Offshore (Conventional) 5.8 5.5 6.0 7.6 9.5 23.1 17.9

Alaska (Conventional) 9.7 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3

Total 374.7 383.5 421.7 472.5 512.0 646.2 688.7

Conventional 66.3 66.0 64.3 61.5 57.1 64.9 54.9

Unconventional 308.4 317.5 357.4 410.9 455.0 581.3 633.8

U.S. Reserve Additions

Dry Natural Gas (trillion cubic feet)

Lower-48 Onshore 30.9 32.8 34.6 37.4 35.9 44.2 43.3

Conventional 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.4 3.6 3.7 3.3

Unconventional 25.1 27.3 29.6 33.0 32.3 40.4 39.9

Lower-48 Offshore (Conventional) 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 4.2 2.6

Alaska (Conventional) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Total 31.9 33.9 35.8 38.9 37.8 48.5 45.9

Conventional 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.4 8.0 6.0

Unconventional 25.1 27.3 29.6 33.0 32.3 40.4 39.9

**Natural Gas Imports and Exports**

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Volumes (trillion cubic feet)

Total Net Imports 0.85 0.17 (0.36) (1.86) (2.48) (1.73) (0.32)

Total Imports 2.40 2.04 1.75 1.57 1.67 3.00 4.22

Pipeline Imports from Canada 2.06 1.70 1.39 1.25 1.43 2.80 4.01

Pipeline Imports from Mexico 0.09 0.10 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.06

Liquefied Natural Gas Imports 0.26 0.25 0.31 0.24 0.15 0.13 0.15

Total Exports 1.55 1.87 2.11 3.43 4.15 4.73 4.54

Pipeline Exports to Canada 0.43 0.45 0.62 0.83 0.90 0.84 0.65

Pipeline Exports to Mexico 0.93 1.02 1.09 1.40 1.65 2.29 2.29

Liquefied Natural Gas Exports 0.20 0.40 0.40 1.20 1.60 1.60 1.60

Border Prices

(2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

Average Import Price 4.78 5.52 5.59 6.45 6.63 6.96 8.22

Pipeline Import Prices

From Canada 4.70 5.39 5.50 6.38 6.57 6.91 8.14

From Mexico 5.44 6.79 5.99 6.91 7.24 7.96 9.96

From Bahamas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

LNG Price (including regasification) 5.25 5.86 5.91 6.62 6.87 7.49 9.49

**Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector and Census Division** 

**(trillion cubic feet)**

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

FIRM

New England 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.45

Middle Atlantic 1.55 1.53 1.53 1.56 1.60 1.67 1.72

East North Central 2.20 2.16 2.17 2.19 2.23 2.33 2.39

West North Central 0.77 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.81 0.84

South Atlantic 0.85 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.88 0.90

East South Central 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.41 0.42

West South Central 0.88 1.09 1.13 1.25 1.49 2.48 2.67

Mountain 0.60 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.65

Pacific 1.05 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.12 1.14

Total 8.67 8.75 8.82 9.05 9.44 10.78 11.17

INTERRUPTIBLE

New England 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13

Middle Atlantic 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.52 0.56

East North Central 1.18 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.28 1.54 1.66

West North Central 0.87 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.93 1.07 1.15

South Atlantic 0.53 0.54 0.56 0.56 0.59 0.70 0.74

East South Central 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.44 0.49 0.58 0.62

West South Central 2.03 2.05 2.05 2.17 2.35 2.58 2.80

Mountain 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.42 0.46

Pacific 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.91 0.96 1.08 1.16**Base Case w ith 316(b) regulation** 

**2016 2018**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2040**  **2050**

**U.S. Natural Gas Supply , Disposition, and Prices** 

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)

Total 6.82 6.88 6.92 7.14 7.55 8.61 9.28

ELECTRIC POWER

New England 0.50 0.48 0.50 0.48 0.50 0.60 0.62

Middle Atlantic 0.89 0.79 0.88 0.80 0.90 1.42 1.91

East North Central 0.44 0.35 0.39 0.39 0.60 1.04 1.68

West North Central 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.14 0.42 0.50

South Atlantic 2.08 1.97 2.08 2.33 2.71 4.35 5.48

East South Central 0.72 0.60 0.68 0.74 0.70 0.86 1.00

West South Central 2.04 1.96 2.07 2.16 2.30 2.79 3.50

Mountain 0.49 0.54 0.48 0.57 0.65 0.99 1.40

Pacific 1.04 1.09 1.22 1.36 1.42 1.58 1.93

Total 8.27 7.83 8.38 8.91 9.93 14.06 18.03

TOTAL

New England 1.02 0.99 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.16 1.21

Middle Atlantic 2.87 2.76 2.87 2.81 2.96 3.62 4.19

East North Central 3.82 3.70 3.77 3.82 4.10 4.91 5.73

West North Central 1.71 1.70 1.72 1.74 1.85 2.31 2.49

South Atlantic 3.46 3.34 3.47 3.73 4.16 5.93 7.13

East South Central 1.54 1.40 1.47 1.56 1.58 1.85 2.04

West South Central 4.95 5.10 5.24 5.58 6.14 7.85 8.97

Mountain 1.43 1.47 1.42 1.53 1.64 2.04 2.51

Pacific 2.96 2.99 3.14 3.33 3.46 3.78 4.23

Total 23.75 23.46 24.12 25.10 26.92 33.44 38.48

**Production A rea Prices** 

**(2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Lower-48 4.25 4.87 4.90 5.56 5.78 6.24 8.24

Lower-48 Onshore

Northeast 4.65 5.29 5.31 5.98 6.17 6.54 8.38

Gulf Coast 4.20 4.79 4.80 5.42 5.66 6.19 8.28

Midcontinent 4.08 4.68 4.74 5.39 5.64 6.12 8.19

Southwest 4.15 4.73 4.74 5.35 5.62 6.16 8.25

Rocky Mountain 4.14 4.78 4.81 5.49 5.62 5.95 7.78

West Coast 4.33 5.05 5.09 6.00 6.30 6.83 8.33

Lower-48 Offshore

Gulf 4.22 4.86 4.97 5.64 5.94 6.25 8.49

Pacific 5.13 6.46 5.67 6.57 6.90 7.57 9.49

**Natural Gas Prices by Census Division** 

**(2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Average Citygate Price

New England 5.26 5.93 5.96 6.72 6.92 7.51 9.38

Middle Atlantic 5.09 5.73 5.75 6.49 6.71 7.16 9.00

East North Central 4.85 5.53 5.62 6.43 6.68 7.17 9.18

West North Central 4.69 5.37 5.45 6.23 6.50 7.04 9.10

South Atlantic 5.24 5.65 5.64 6.37 6.70 7.30 9.42

East South Central 4.66 5.29 5.32 6.03 6.34 6.93 9.08

West South Central 4.38 5.00 5.01 5.70 6.01 6.60 8.76

Mountain 4.52 5.17 5.21 5.96 6.13 6.57 8.58

Pacific 4.98 5.94 5.69 6.58 6.85 7.38 9.26

U.S. Average 4.83 5.48 5.48 6.23 6.50 7.04 9.07

**Regional Supply**

**and Demand Balance (BCF per y ear)** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### New **England**

Supply:

Dry Gas Production

- - - - - - -

Conventional

- - - - - - -

Unconventional

- - - - - - - Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

Middle Atlantic 727 748 728 839 932 1,116 1,131**Base Case w ith 316(b) regulation** 

**2016 2018**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2040**  **2050**

**U.S. Natural Gas Supply , Disposition, and Prices** 

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)

Canada 115 77 30 5 12 24 29

Liquefied Natural Gas Imports:

Everett 30

- 205 164 87 81 79

Neptune

- 26 52

- - - - Northeast Gateway 150 144

- - - - - Storage Extraction

- - - 0 3 9 9

**Total Supply 1,021**  **994 1,015**  **1,008 1,034**  **1,229 1,248** 

Demand:

Consumption 1,016 993 1,012 1,008 1,031 1,160 1,206

Pipeline Exports:

Middle Atlantic 5 2 3 0

- 59 32

Canada

- - - - - - - Pipeline and Storage Fuel 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Lease and Plant Fuel

- - - - - - - Storage Injection

- - - 0 3 10 10

**Total Demand 1,021**  **994 1,015**  **1,008 1,034**  **1,229 1,248** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### Middle A

**tlantic**

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 3,054 3,186 3,438 3,983 4,591 5,795 6,943

Conventional 136 160 149 140 121 88 62

Unconventional 2,917 3,026 3,289 3,843 4,470 5,707 6,881

Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

New England 5 2 3 0

- 59 32

East North Central 162 138 129 80 27

- -

South Atlantic 604 456 509 311 186 222 138

Canada 42 26 18 17 8 5 3

Storage Extraction 290 333 331 298 323 319 346

**Total Supply 4,157**  **4,140 4,428**  **4,690 5,135**  **6,399 7,461** 

Demand:

Consumption 2,874 2,755 2,869 2,809 2,960 3,616 4,189

Pipeline Exports:

New England 727 748 728 839 932 1,116 1,131

East North Central

- - - - 31 360 514

South Atlantic 111 105 147 178 196 239 389

Canada 11 49 186 373 473 481 587

Pipeline and Storage Fuel 35 37 44 52 58 64 60

Lease and Plant Fuel 106 111 120 139 160 201 241

Storage Injection 293 336 334 301 326 322 349

**Total Demand 4,157**  **4,140 4,428**  **4,690 5,135**  **6,399 7,461** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### East North Central

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 227 254 304 369 407 672 914

Conventional 158 164 165 157 139 106 78

Unconventional 69 90 139 212 268 567 835

Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

Middle Atlantic

- - - - 31 360 514

West North Central 2,144 2,032 2,056 1,941 2,027 2,539 2,936

South Atlantic 1

- - 19 156 295 295

East South Central 1,872 1,798 1,822 1,852 1,765 1,292 1,043

West South Central 230 230 230 230 230 230 230

Canada

- - - - - - 37

Storage Extraction 660 664 713 712 746 817 825

**Total Supply 5,134**  **4,978 5,125**  **5,124 5,362**  **6,206 6,794** 

Demand:

Consumption 3,819 3,698 3,771 3,818 4,103 4,913 5,727

Pipeline Exports:

Middle Atlantic 162 138 129 80 27

- -

West North Central 30 29 29 3 5 62 120

South Atlantic

- - - - - - -

East South Central

- - - - - - -

Canada 416 401 431 455 427 355 64

Pipeline and Storage Fuel 34 34 36 38 36 36 31

Lease and Plant Fuel 7 8 9 11 12 16 19**Base Case w ith 316(b) regulation** 

**2016 2018**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2040**  **2050**

**U.S. Natural Gas Supply , Disposition, and Prices** 

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)

Storage Injection 666 670 719 719 753 825 833

**Total Demand 5,134**  **4,978 5,125**  **5,124 5,362**  **6,206 6,794** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### West North Central

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 444 431 405 363 317 255 227

Conventional 344 348 339 308 259 193 146

Unconventional 100 83 66 55 58 63 81

Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

East North Central 30 29 29 3 5 62 120

West South Central 639 840 999 980 971 947 912

Mountain 1,857 1,660 1,531 1,686 1,829 2,521 2,627

Canada 1,088 973 903 732 834 1,159 1,648

Storage Extraction 184 171 164 166 132 190 200

**Total Supply 4,242**  **4,105 4,032**  **3,931 4,088**  **5,134 5,734** 

Demand:

Consumption 1,709 1,703 1,723 1,741 1,846 2,305 2,485

Pipeline Exports:

East North Central 2,144 2,032 2,056 1,941 2,027 2,539 2,936

West South Central 114 111 3

- - 2 11

Mountain

- - - - - - - Pipeline and Storage Fuel 68 66 66 65 67 84 90

Lease and Plant Fuel 21 20 19 16 14 11 10

Storage Injection 186 173 165 168 133 192 202

**Total Demand 4,242**  **4,105 4,032**  **3,931 4,088**  **5,134 5,734** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### South A **tlantic**

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 703 729 803 992 1,286 2,147 3,386

Conventional 85 84 80 72 61 46 34

Unconventional 618 645 723 920 1,225 2,101 3,352

Supplemental Natural Gas 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pipeline Imports:

Middle Atlantic 111 105 147 178 196 239 389

East North Central

- - - - - - -

East South Central 3,251 2,960 2,913 2,746 2,898 4,008 3,936

Offshore

- - 135 148 169 277 294

Liquefied Natural Gas Imports:

Cove Point

- - - - - - -

Elba Island 77 77 54 77 63 53 71

Storage Extraction 166 87 86 159 118 169 157

**Total Supply 4,310**  **3,957 4,138**  **4,300 4,729**  **6,893 8,233** 

Demand:

Consumption 3,461 3,345 3,471 3,729 4,159 5,925 7,126

Pipeline Exports:

Middle Atlantic 604 456 509 311 186 222 138

East North Central 1

- - 19 156 295 295

East South Central

- - - - 13 136 288

Pipeline and Storage Fuel 45 37 36 36 39 45 74

Lease and Plant Fuel 31 32 35 44 58 97 152

Storage Injection 168 88 87 161 119 172 160

**Total Demand 4,310**  **3,957 4,138**  **4,300 4,729**  **6,893 8,233** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### East South Central

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 277 281 283 282 278 306 385

Conventional 216 221 221 216 199 171 163

Unconventional 61 61 62 67 79 135 222

Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

East North Central

- - - - - - -

South Atlantic

- - - - 13 136 288

West South Central 5,912 5,508 5,583 5,474 5,430 5,872 5,182

Offshore 565 456 426 484 607 922 1,253

Liquefied Natural Gas Imports:**Base Case w ith 316(b) regulation** 

**2016 2018**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2040**  **2050**

**U.S. Natural Gas Supply , Disposition, and Prices** 

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)

Gulf LNG Energy LLC

- - - - - - - Storage Extraction 234 274 261 314 308 348 366

**Total Supply 6,988**  **6,519 6,553**  **6,554 6,636**  **7,585 7,475** 

Demand:

Consumption 1,536 1,400 1,471 1,557 1,582 1,846 2,041

Pipeline Exports:

East North Central 1,872 1,798 1,822 1,852 1,765 1,292 1,043

South Atlantic 3,251 2,960 2,913 2,746 2,898 4,008 3,936

West South Central

- - - - - - - Pipeline and Storage Fuel 85 77 76 72 72 78 72

Lease and Plant Fuel 8 9 9 9 9 10 13

Storage Injection 236 277 263 317 311 352 370

**Total Demand 6,988**  **6,519 6,553**  **6,554 6,636**  **7,585 7,475** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### West South Central

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 12,645 13,255 14,254 15,755 16,781 18,046 18,437

Conventional 2,873 2,994 3,046 2,982 2,714 2,426 2,262

Unconventional 9,773 10,260 11,209 12,772 14,067 15,619 16,175

Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

West North Central 114 111 3

- - 2 11

East South Central

- - - - - - -

Mountain 71 51 21 59 86 74 3

Offshore 1,195 854 549 567 777 2,097 1,825

Mexico

- - - - - - - Liquefied Natural Gas Imports:

Cameron

- - - - - - - Freeport

- - - - - - -

Golden Pass

- - - - - - -

Lake Charles

- - - - - - -

Sabine Pass

- - - - - - - Storage Extraction 283 379 420 508 612 780 1,025

**Total Supply 14,308**  **14,649 15,247**  **16,889 18,257**  **20,998 21,301** 

Demand:

Consumption 4,953 5,102 5,243 5,579 6,141 7,851 8,969

Pipeline Exports:

East North Central 230 230 230 230 230 230 230

West North Central 639 840 999 980 971 947 912

East South Central 5,912 5,508 5,583 5,474 5,430 5,872 5,182

Mountain 529 511 569 735 786 622 297

Pacific

- - - - - - -

Mexico 695 778 832 1,110 1,338 1,870 1,870

Liquefied Natural Gas Exports 201 402 402 1,202 1,601 1,601 1,601

Pipeline and Storage Fuel 255 258 277 306 332 350 321

Lease and Plant Fuel 608 639 687 760 809 868 884

Storage Injection 286 382 424 513 618 787 1,034

**Total Demand 14,308**  **14,649 15,247**  **16,889 18,257**  **20,998 21,301** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### Mountain

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 5,373 5,430 5,550 5,833 6,139 6,923 7,433

Conventional 1,321 1,366 1,381 1,380 1,293 1,210 1,084

Unconventional 4,052 4,064 4,169 4,452 4,847 5,712 6,349

Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

West North Central

- - - - - - -

West South Central 529 511 569 735 786 622 297

Pacific

- - - - - 5 44

Canada 322 147 27 0 3 594 822

Mexico

- - - - - - - Storage Extraction 119 93 109 124 177 179 197

**Total Supply 6,342**  **6,182 6,255**  **6,692 7,105**  **8,323 8,793** 

Demand:

Consumption 1,432 1,474 1,423 1,526 1,638 2,045 2,508

Pipeline Exports:

West North Central 1,857 1,660 1,531 1,686 1,829 2,521 2,627**Base Case w ith 316(b) regulation** 

**2016 2018**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2040**  **2050**

**U.S. Natural Gas Supply , Disposition, and Prices** 

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)

West South Central 71 51 21 59 86 74 3

Pacific 2,281 2,315 2,568 2,648 2,688 2,691 2,588

Mexico 69 76 81 104 119 164 164

Pipeline and Storage Fuel 141 140 147 155 158 183 200

Lease and Plant Fuel 371 373 376 389 409 465 504

Storage Injection 120 94 110 125 179 181 199

**Total Demand 6,342**  **6,182 6,255**  **6,692 7,105**  **8,323 8,793** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### Pacific (Lower 48)

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 221 233 246 258 253 227 378

Conventional 218 229 239 247 238 209 179

Unconventional 2 4 7 11 15 18 200

Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

West South Central

- - - - - - -

Mountain 2,281 2,315 2,568 2,648 2,688 2,691 2,588

Offshore 3 3 2 2 1 1 0

Canada 489 474 409 492 576 1,014 1,476

Mexico 89 98 49 86 89 72 58

Storage Extraction 182 172 148 173 195 221 189

**Total Supply 3,264**  **3,293 3,422**  **3,659 3,802**  **4,226 4,690** 

Demand:

Consumption 2,861 2,900 3,040 3,234 3,352 3,670 4,123

Pipeline Exports:

Mountain

- - - - - 5 44

Canada

- - - - - - -

Mexico 163 163 173 188 190 259 254

Pipeline and Storage Fuel 29 28 28 30 31 40 49

Lease and Plant Fuel 28 30 31 33 32 28 29

Storage Injection 183 173 149 175 197 223 191

**Total Demand 3,264**  **3,293 3,422**  **3,659 3,802**  **4,226 4,690** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### Lower 48 Offshore

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 1,850 1,378 1,167 1,261 1,633 3,469 3,546

Conventional 1,850 1,378 1,167 1,261 1,633 3,469 3,546

Unconventional

- - - - - - - Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - **Total Supply 1,850**  **1,378 1,167**  **1,261 1,633**  **3,469 3,546** 

Demand:

Pipeline Exports:

South Atlantic

- - 135 148 169 277 294

East South Central 565 456 426 484 607 922 1,253

West South Central 1,195 854 549 567 777 2,097 1,825

Pacific L-48 3 3 2 2 1 1 0

Pipeline Fuel 19 16 13 15 19 44 43

Lease and Plant Fuel 68 50 42 45 59 127 130

**Total Demand 1,850**  **1,378 1,167**  **1,261 1,633**  **3,469 3,546** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### Al **aska**

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 132 133 229 223 214 201 176

Conventional 132 133 229 223 214 201 176

Unconventional

- - - - - - - Supplemental Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

**Total Supply 132**  **133 230**  **223 214**  **201 177** 

Demand:

Consumption 94 95 96 101 105 110 112

Pipeline Exports:

Canada

- - - - - - - Pipeline Fuel

- - - - - - -

Lease and Plant Fuel 38 38 133 123 109 92 66

**Total Demand 132**  **133 230**  **223 214**  **201 177** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050**Base Case w ith 316(b) regulation** 

**2016 2018**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2040**  **2050**

**U.S. Natural Gas Supply , Disposition, and Prices** 

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)



### Florida (subset of South A **tlantic)**

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 4 4 3 4 4 4 3

Conventional 4 4 3 4 4 4 3

Unconventional

- - - - - - - Supplemental Natural Gas 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pipeline Imports:

East South Central 1,177 1,197 1,154 1,153 1,229 1,486 1,705

Offshore

- - 135 148 169 277 294

South Atlantic 77 76 53 76 62 53 70

Storage Extraction 3 2 1 1 1 5 6

**Total Supply 1,263**  **1,279 1,347**  **1,382 1,465**  **1,826 2,078** 

Demand:

Consumption 1,254 1,272 1,344 1,379 1,462 1,817 2,070

Pipeline Exports:

East South Central

- - - - - - -

South Atlantic

- - - - - 0

- Pipeline and Storage Fuel 4 3 2 1 1 2 1

Lease and Plant Fuel 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Storage Injection 4 2 1 1 1 6 6

**Total Demand 1,263**  **1,279 1,347**  **1,382 1,465**  **1,826 2,078** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### Ar **izona/New Mexico (subset of Mountain)**

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 999 985 958 939 945 1,025 1,089

Conventional 399 397 383 351 301 223 161

Unconventional 601 588 574 588 644 802 928

Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

West South Central 529 511 569 735 786 622 297

Mexico

- - - - - - -

Mountain North 500 519 609 630 614 855 1,119

California

- - - - - 5 5

Storage Extraction 4 4 11 13 16 23 28

**Total Supply 2,032**  **2,019 2,147**  **2,317 2,361**  **2,531 2,537** 

Demand:

Consumption 478 469 442 473 462 580 744

Pipeline Exports:

West South Central 71 51 21 59 86 74 3

Mountain North

- - - 36 36 28 25

California 1,268 1,280 1,451 1,489 1,496 1,496 1,390

Mexico 69 76 81 104 119 164 164

Pipeline and Storage Fuel 52 52 57 60 60 63 66

Lease and Plant Fuel 90 87 84 83 86 103 117

Storage Injection 4 4 11 13 16 23 29

**Total Demand 2,032**  **2,019 2,147**  **2,317 2,361**  **2,531 2,537** 

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050



### California (subset of Pacific)

Supply:

Dry Gas Production 217 228 240 249 243 215 185

Conventional 217 228 239 246 238 209 179

Unconventional 0 0 1 3 5 6 7

Supplemental Natural Gas

- - - - - - - Pipeline Imports:

West South Central

- - - - - - -

Offshore 3 3 2 2 1 1 0

Mexico 89 98 49 86 89 72 58

Arizona/New Mexico 1,268 1,280 1,451 1,489 1,496 1,496 1,390

Mountain North 582 580 597 721 894 1,057 1,191

Pacific Northwest 459 449 450 406 307 430 594

Storage Extraction 153 143 119 144 166 192 160

**Total Supply 2,770**  **2,780 2,908**  **3,096 3,196**  **3,464 3,580** 

Demand:

Consumption 2,409 2,427 2,566 2,712 2,787 2,958 3,117

Pipeline Exports:

Mexico 163 163 173 188 190 259 254

Arizona/New Mexico

- - - - - 5 5**Base Case w ith 316(b) regulation** 

**2016 2018**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2040**  **2050**

**U.S. Natural Gas Supply , Disposition, and Prices** 

(trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)

Mountain North

- - - - - - - Pipeline and Storage Fuel 16 16 18 19 19 19 18

Lease and Plant Fuel 28 30 31 32 32 28 24

Storage Injection 154 144 120 145 168 194 162

**Total Demand 2,770**  **2,780 2,908**  **3,096 3,196**  **3,464 3,580** 

## Base Case with 316(b) regulation

**Pipeline capacity additions (BCF per year) 2016**  **2018 2020**  **2025**



# New **England**

Pipeline capacity

additions into region:

**- -**  **- -**  New England

- - - -

Middle Atlantic

- - - -

Canada

- - - - 

# Middle A

**tlantic**

Pipeline capacity

additions into region:

**- 730** 

**- 93** 

Middle Atlantic

- 475

- 93

New England

- - - -

East North Central

- - - -

South Atlantic

- 256

- -

Canada

- - - - 

# East North Central

Pipeline capacity

additions into region: **548 548** 

**- -** 

East North Central 365 365

- -

Middle Atlantic

- - - -

We st North Central

- - - -

South Atlantic

- - - -

East South Central

- - - -

Canada 183 183

- - 

# West North Central

Pipeline capacity

additions into region:

**- 365** 

**- -** 

We st North Central

- 183

- -

East North Central

- 183

- -

We st South Central

- - - -

Mountain

- - - - 

# South A **tlantic**

Pipeline capacity

additions into region: **256 310** 

**- -** 

South Atlantic 256 310

- -

Middle Atlantic

- - - -

East North Central

- - - -

East South Central

- - - - 

# East South Central

Pipeline capacity

additions into region:

**- 256**  **220 169** 

East South Central

- - - -

East North Central

- - - -

South Atlantic

- 256 220 169

We st South Central

- - - - 

# West South Central

Pipeline capacity

additions into region:

**- 548**  **711 663** 

We st South Central

- - 205 58

East North Central

- - - -

We st North Central

- 183 155 63

East South Central

- - 193 308

Mountain

- - - -

Mexico

- 365 159 235



# Mountain

Pipeline capacity

additions into region: **365 73**  **50 288** 

Mountain 183

- 50 212

## We st North Central 183 73

- -

We st South Central

- - - - Pacific (Lower 48)

- - - 76

Mexico

- - - - 

# Pacific (Low **er 48)**

Pipeline capacity

additions into region:

**- -**  **227 96** 

Pacific (Lower 48)

- - 208 81

Mountain

- - - -

Canada

- - - -

Mexico

- - 19 15



# Al **aska**

Pipeline capacity

additions into region:

**- -**  **- -** 

Alaska

- - - -

Canada

- - - - 

# Canada

Pipeline capacity

additions into region: **183**

**- -**  **-**

Canada 183

- - -

East North Central

- - - -

Middle Atlantic

- - - -

Mountain

- - - - New England

- - - -

We st North Central

- - - - Pacific (Lower 48)

- - - -



# Low **er-48 Offshore**

Pipeline capacity

additions into region:

**- -**  **135 13** 

Lower-48 Offshore

- - - -

East South Central

- - - -

South Atlantic

- - 135 13

We st South Central

- - - - Pacific (Lower 48)

- - - - 

# Mexico

Pipeline capacity

additions into region:

**- -**  **- -** 

Mexico

- - - -

Mountain

- - - -

We st South Central

- - - - Pacific (Lower 48)

- - - -

## 2030 **2040 2050** 

**- -**  **-**

- - -

- - -

- - -

**384 784**  **1,245**

303 616 730

- - -

- - -

- 52 147

81 116 368

**- -**  **55**

- - 55

- - -

- - -

- - -

- - -

- - -

**- -**  **49**

- - -

- - 49

- - -

- - -

**- 48**  **2,550**

- 48 2,446

- - -

- - -

- - 104

**150 961**  **373**

- - -

- - -

150 961 373

- - -

**869 1,740**  **1,053**

476 1,170 989

- - -

10

- 50

181 123 14

- - -

202 448

-

**314 567**  **773**

179 407 669

## - 0

-

- - -

134 141 104

- 19

-

**68 163**  **159**

68 83 159

- - -

- - -

- 80

-

**- -**  **-**

- - -

- - -

**72 1,644**  **2,609**

72 1,644 2,569

- - -

- - -

- - 31

- - -

- - -

- - 10

**21 620**  **382**

- 512 31

- - 335

21 108 16

- - -

- - -

**- -**  **-**

- - -

- - -

- - -

- - -