C’TechnicalSupportDocument(TSD)ForBucks,Chester,Delaware,Montgomery,andPhiladelphiaCountieslocatedinthePhiladelphia-Wilmington-AtlanticCity,PA-NJ-DE8HourOzoneNonattainmentArea:StateImplementationPlan(SIP)AttainmentDemonstrationandBaseYearInventoryRevisionSubmittedAugust2007bytheBureauofAirQuality,PennsylvaniaDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection;ResubmittedonDecember10,2009andonApril10,2010TSDPreparedApril2010byAliceH.ChowAirQualityAnalysisBranch,3AP40U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,Region31650ArchStreetPhiladelphia,Pennsylvania1gi03ReviewedbyWalterWilkie,DirectorOfficeofAirMonitoringandAnalysis(3AP40)Dat$igneC.I.IntroductionThepurposeofthisdocumentistoprovideatechnicalsummaryoftheAirQualityAnalysisBranch’s(AQAB)reviewoftheemissionsinventoriessubmittedwiththePhiladelphiaNonattainmentArea8HourOzoneStateImplementationPlan(SIP)bythePennsylvaniaDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection(PADEP).ThisreviewdeterminestheapprovabilityoftheSIPBaseYearInventoryandanevaluationofthemethodsusedforprojectionyearinventories.ASIPBaseYearInventoryisthestartingpointfromwhichotherSIPinventoriesarederivedaswellasservingasthebenchmarkforotherSIPplanningactivities,suchastheestablishmentofanemissionsreductioncreditprogram.Projectionyearinventoriesareessentiallyusedtotrackprogress;thepurposeofwhichistodemonstrateareductioninemissionsofregulatedsourcesfromtheBaseYeartoaprojectedyear.Bucks,Chester,Delaware,Montgomery,andPhiladelphiaCountiesarelocatedinthePhiladelphiaNonattainmentAreaandassuch,weredesignatedasan8hourozonenonattainmentareawithaSubpart2classification.Subpart2area(s)arerequiredtosubmitinitialSIPbaseyearinventoriestoEPAbyJune15,2006;withthefinalBaseYearinventoryduewiththeSIPtoEPAbyJune15,2007.PennsylvaniaDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtectionoriginallysubmittedPhiladelphiaNonattainmentArea8HourOzoneSIPandrequestedEPA’sapprovalonAugust29,2007.ErrorswereidentifiedintheAugust2007submissionforstationarypointsourcesduetofacilitiesbeingcountedmultipletimesaswellasanerrorincalculationwasfoundforprojected2008emissionsforareasources.PADEPhasnowrevisedandcorrectedthe2002BaseYearInventorywithrevisedappendicesforEPAapproval.AnyquestionspertainingtothistechnicalsummaryshouldbedirectedtoWalterK.Wilkie,AssociateDirector,OfficeofAirMonitoringandAnalysis,at215-814-2150orviaemailatwilkie.walter(epa.gov.II.2002SIPBaseYearInventoryTheSIPbaseyearinventoryistheprimaryinventoryfromwhichotherinventories(3-yearcycleinventories,reasonablefurtherprogressinventories,modelinginventories)arederived.TheCleanAirActcallsforState,local,andTribalagenciestoensurethatthebaseyearinventoryiscomprehensive,accurate,andcurrentforallactualemissions.1Thebaseyearinventoryincludesemissionsestimatesfromstationarypointandnonpointsources,onroadmobilesources,andnonroadmobilesources.Forthe8-hourozoneNAAQS,thepollutantstobeinventoriedareVOC,NOxandCO(carbonmonoxide).Forthe8-hourozoneNAAQS,VOC,NOxandCOemissionsshouldbereportedasactualannualandactualsummerweekdayemissions(definedasanaverageday’semissionsforatypicalsummerdayduringtheozoneseason).PADEP’sbaseyear“EmissionsInventoryGuidanceforImplementationofOzoneandParticulateMatterNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(NAAQS)andRegionalHazeRegulations”EPA-454/R-05-001,August2005Cninventoryisfor2002.AsignificantamountofdocumentationisrequiredfortheseSIPbaseyearestimateswhichPADEPhasprovided.ThePointSourcedatafor2002isderivedfromthePennsylvaniaAirInformationManagementSystem(AIMS).TheAIMSdatabaseiscomprisedofsourcesidentifiedandinventoriedbyPADEP’sregionalandcentralofficesthroughpermitting,fieldinspections,andsurveys.Surveysareconductedannuallyasfacilitiesmustsubmitemissionestimatesforvariousoperations,throughputs,workhours,aswellasprocessdata,suchascombustionunitdataandfuelcharacteristics.PADEPprovidedits2002actualsummerweekdayemissionsforNOxandVOCatthefacilitylevelandbySourceClassificationCodes(SCCs).“Summerweekdayemissions”isdefinedbyPADEPasanaverageday’semissionsforatypicalsummerdayduringtheozoneseason.Forthe2002NonpointSourceemissions,alsoknownas“areasources,”PADEPprovidedaninventorythatcontainedestimationsofemissionsbymultiplyinganemissionfactorbysomeknownindicatororactivitylevelforeachcategoryatthecountylevel.Theseemissionsaretypicallycalculatedonanannualbasisbecausetheactivitydataaregenerallyonlyavailableonanannualbasis.PADEPfurtherconvertedtheseannualemissionstoseasonalemissions,forozone,thesummerseasonisdefinedaspeakozoneseasonmonthsofJune,July,andAugust.SeasonalestimateswerecalculatedusingdefaultmonthlyandweeklyprofilesfromEPA’sEmissionsModelingClearingHouse(EMCH).NonpointsourceestimateswereprovidedbySCC.TheNonroadMobileSource2002inventorywaspreparedwithEPA’sNONROAD2005model.NONROADestimatesfuelconsumptionandemissionsoftotalhydrocarbons,carbonmonoxide,nitrogenoxides,sulfurdioxide,andparticulatematterforallnonroadmobilesourcecategoriesexceptforaircraft,locomotives,andcommercialmarinevessels.PADEPprovidedemissionestimatesforlocomotiveenginesandaircraftemissionsseparately.Forlocomotiveengineemissions,PADEPprojectedemissionsfroma1999surveyusingnationalfuelconsumptioninformationandEPAemissionandconversionfactors.Foraircraftemissions,PADEPobtainedoperationalinformationatthePhiladelphiaInternationalAirport(PHL)andtheFederalAviationAdministration’s(FAA)TerminalAreaForecastoperationsdatafortheNortheastPhiladelphiaAirport.EmissionfactorsandoperationalcharacteristicsinFAA’sEmissionsandDispersionModelingSystem(EDMS)werealsogenerated.CommercialmarinevesselsemissionsfromthePortofPhiladelphiawereestimatedusingEPA’s“CommercialMarineActivityforGreatLakesandInlandRiverPortsintheUnitedStates,FinalReport,”aswellasdiscussionswithtugboatoperators.AllNonroadmobilesourceemissionswereprovidedbySCCandclassification.TheOnroadMobileSource2002emissionsinventorywasdevelopedusingthemostcurrentversionofEPA’shighwaymobilesourceemissionsmodelMOBILE6.2.PADEPalsousedPPSUITE,anenhancedversionofthePostProcessorforAirQualitysoftwaresystemsusedforpreviousinventoryandconformitysubmissionsinPennsylvania.Trafficdatasourceandfleetdatainputsweresuppliedbythe2002PENNDOTRoadwayManagementSystem.PADEPprovidedMobile6.2inputandoutputfilesforreview.MobileemissionsvaluesweregiveninunitsoftonspersummerdayandwereprovidedbySCC.CAQABstaffreviewedthefilesandtheemissionresultsprovidedbyPADEPandfoundthemtobeapprovable.III.2008and2009ProjectionYearInventoriesProjectioninventoriesareusedtoshowthattheareawillremaininattainment.Projectioninventoriesfortheyears2008and2009wereusedfortheBucks,Chester,Delaware,Montgomery,andPhiladelphiaCountiesportionofthePhiladelphiaNonattainmentArea.The2008projectedinventoryisrequiredforreasonablefurtherprogress(RFP)andthe2009projectedinventoryisrequiredfortheattainmentyear.Inventoriesweredevelopedforallemissionsourcesforbothyears.PADEPusedprojectioninventoriesforpointandnonpointsourcespreparedbyMACTECFederalPrograms,Inc.,fortheMid-AtlanticRegionalAirManagementAssociation(MARAMA).ThePointSourceemissionsfor2008and2009wereprojected,forbothEGUsandnonEGUs,usinggrowthfactorsfromEPA’sEconomicGrowthandAnalysisSystem,Version5.0(EGAS5.0)andtheDepartmentofEnergy’sAnnualEnergyOutlook2005fuelconsumptionforecasts.Inaddition,fornon-EGUs,state-suppliedpopulation,employmentandotheremissionprojectiondatawerealsoappliedtoaccountforchangesineconomicactivity.Then,controlfactorswereappliedtoaccountforfutureemissionreductionsfromon-the-books(OTB)controlregulationsandon-the-way(OTW)controlregulations.TheNonpointSourceemissionsfor2008and2009wereprojectedusinggrowthfactorstoaccountforpopulationandeconomicactivity.Then,aswithpointsources,controlfactorswereusedtoaccountforfutureemissionreductionsfromon-the-books(OTB)controlregulationsandon-the-way(OTW)controlregulations.Forthe2008and2009NonroadMobileSourceinventories,PADEPusedEPA’sNONROAD2005modeltogeneratethesefutureinventories.TheNONROADmodelallowsforthecalculationofpastyear,presentyear,andfutureyearinventories(uptotheyear2050)tobegenerated.Toestimategrowthforlocomotives,PADEPprojectedemissionsfroma1999surveyusingnationalfuelconsumptioninformationandEPAemissionandconversionfactors.SmallaircraftgrowthwasestimatedfromtheFederalAviationAdministration’sAPOTerminalAreaForecastDetailedReport;forlargeairportgrowth,PADEPworkedwiththeCityofPhiladelphia,DivisionofAviation,andtheirconsultants(DMJMAviationandJacobsConsultancy,formerlyknownasLeigh-FisherAssociates)todevelopactivitydatarequiredformodeling.Forcommercialmarinevessels,PADEPusedfuturefuelconsumptiongrowthandfutureemissionsreductionstocalculatetotalfutureemissions,ascontainedinEPA’s“FinalRegulatoryImpactAnalysis:ControlofEmissionsfromMarineDieselEngines.”The2008and2009OnroadMobileSourceinventoriesweregeneratedusingEPA’sMOBILE6.2.Inaddition,PADEPusedPEI’TNDOT’sTrafficInformationSystemandsocioeconomicdata.Specificgrowthratesforvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)inthe5-countyPhiladelphiaareawerefromtheDelawareValleyRegionalPlanningCommission(DVRPC).TheVMTgrowthinputswereincorporatedwithtrafficdataandCsocioeconomicforecastswhichisinputtedinPPSUITEtocalculateVMTandspeeds;theoutputisthenruninMOBILE6.2tocalculateemissions.AQABstaffreviewedtheprocedures,andfoundthemtobereasonablefordevelopmentoftheseinventories.Z)D