11B-i APPENDIX 11B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FO R THE NATIONAL IMPACT

ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

11B.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................11B-1

11B.2 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................11B-1

11B.2.1 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ..............................................................11B-1

11B.2.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................... 11B-1

11B.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................... 11B-13

11B.2.2 NET PRESENT VALUE............................................................................11B-19

11B.2.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................. 11B-19

11B.2.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................... 11B-31

LIST OF TABLES

Table 11B.1 Cumulative National Energy Sa vin gs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario, Lighting Controls Sensiti vity (2012-2042) (quads) ...................................11B-2 Table 11B.2 Cumulative National Energy Sa vings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario, Lighting Controls Se nsitivity (2012-2042) (quads) ..................11B-2 Table 11B.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario, Reduced Lighting Expertise (2012-2042) (quads) .....................11B-4 Table 11B.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ...................................................................................11B-6 Table 11B.5 Cumulative National Energy Sa vings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ...................................................................................11B-6 Table 11B.6 Cumulative National Energy Sa vings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Roll-up, Hi gh Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ...................................................................................11B-7 Table 11B.7 Cumulative National Energy Sa vings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ...................................................................................11B-9 Table 11B.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, Market Segment-Based Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ...................................................11B-9 Table 11B.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) .................................................................11B-1111B-ii Table 11B.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) .................................................................................11B-11 Table 11B.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, Market Segment-Based Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) .................................................................................11B-13

Table 11B.12 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) .......11B-14

Table 11B.13 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) .......11B-14 Table 11B.14 Cumulative National Energy Sa vings for IRL in the Modified Emerging Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012- 2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-15 Table 11B.15 Cumulative National Energy Sa vings for IRL in the Modified Emerging Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ......................................................................................................11B-15 Table 11B.16 Cumulative National Energy Sa vings for IRL in the Modified Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012- 2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-15 Table 11B.17 Cumulative National Energy Sa vings for IRL in the Modified Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ......................................................................................................11B-15

Table 11B.18 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution, Baseline Lifetime Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ..................................................................11B-16

Table 11B.19 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution, Baseline Lifetime Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ...................................................11B-16

Table 11B.20 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012- 2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-17

Table 11B.21 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ......................................................................................................11B-17

Table 11B.22 Cumulative National En ergy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ......................................................................................................11B-17

Table 11B.23 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012- 2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-17

Table 11B.24 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ......................................................................................................11B-1811B-iii Table 11B.25 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012- 2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-18

Table 11B.26 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ......................................................................................................11B-18

Table 11B.27 Cumulative National Ener gy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012- 2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-18

Table 11B.28 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario, Lighting Controls (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ......................................................11B-20

Table 11B.29 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario, Lighting C ontrols (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .......11B-21

Table 11B.30 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario, Reduced Light ing Expertise Sensitivity (2012- 2042) (billion 2008$) ...............................................................................11B-22

Table 11B.31 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Shift, Hi gh Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .........................................................................................11B-23

Table 11B.32 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .....................................11B-24

Table 11B.33 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, High Expertise Scenario (2012- 2042) (billion 2008$) ...............................................................................11B-25

Table 11B.34 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, Ma rket Segment-Based Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .....................................................11B-26

Table 11B.35 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Shift, Market Segment-Based Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .....................................11B-27

Table 11B.36 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Roll- up, High Expertise Scenario (2012- 2042) (billion 2008$) ...............................................................................11B-28

Table 11B.37 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012- 2042) (billion 2008$) ...............................................................................11B-29

Table 11B.38 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Shift, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .....................................................11B-30

Table 11B.39 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ......................................................11B-3111B-iv Table 11B.40 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ......................................................11B-31

Table 11B.41 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies,
Shift, R-CFL Product Substitu tion (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ............11B-32

Table 11B.42 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies,
Shift, BR Product Substitu tion (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ...................11B-32

Table 11B.43 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ........11B-32

Table 11B.44 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ..............11B-33 Table 11B.45 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Baseline Lifetime (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ......................................................11B-33

Table 11B.46 Cumulative NPV Results fo r IRL: Emerging Technologies, Baseline Lifetime (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ......................................................11B-33

Table 11B.47 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ...................................11B-34

Table 11B.48 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ...................................11B-34 Table 11B.49 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ...................................11B-34

Table 11B.50 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ...................................11B-35

Table 11B.51 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ...................................11B-35

Table 11B.52 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Emerging Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ...................................11B-35 Table 11B.53 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ...................................11B-36

Table 11B.54 Cumulative NPV Results fo r IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, RCFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ..........................11B-3611B-1 APPENDIX 11B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FO R THE NATIONAL IMPACTS

ANALYSIS

11B.1 INTRODUCTION

In this appendix, DOE presents the national energy savings (NES) and net present value
(NPV) results f or the additional sensitivity scenarios it considered. For general service fluorescent lamps (GSFL), these include the Lighting Controls sensitivity and the Reduced Lighting Expertise sensitivity. For incandescent reflector lamps (IRL), these include the Baseline Lifetime, the Modified Emerging Tech nology Penetration and the 10-percent Lumen Increase sensitivities. DOE also presents the NES and NPV results for all eight possible shipments scenarios for GSFL and IRL.

11B.2 RESULTS

11B.2.1 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

11B.2.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Table 11B.1 and Table 11B.2 provide NES results for each TSL considered for GSFL

under the L ighting Controls sensitivities for the upper-and lower-bound energy savings scenarios, respectively. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. The Lighting Controls sens itivity reflects slightly lower NES because it incorporates lower operati ng hours in the base case.11B-2 Table 11B.1 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expert ise Scenario, Lighting Controls Sensitivity (2012-2042) (quads)

NES (Quads) TSL Product Class

Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.89 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25 8-foot recessed double contact high output (HO) 0.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output (SO) 0.68 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.04 1

TOTAL 2.98 4-foot medium bipin 0.99 8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.68 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.04 2

TOTAL 3.16 4-foot medium bipin 4.12 8-foot single pin slimline 0.31

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.23 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.68 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.19 3

TOTAL 6.52 4-foot medium bipin 6.87 8-foot single pin slimline 0.36

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.68 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.31 4

TOTAL 9.83 4-foot medium bipin 8.67 8-foot single pin slimline 0.36

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.81 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.39 5

TOTAL 11.86

Table 11B.2 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segmen t-Based Scenario, Lighting Controls Sensitivity (2012-2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class NES (Quads)11B-3 Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.60 8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.02 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 1

TOTAL 1.53 4-foot medium bipin 0.74 8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 2

TOTAL 1.87 4-foot medium bipin 1.80 8-foot single pin slimline 0.31

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.08 3

TOTAL 3.03 4-foot medium bipin 2.29 8-foot single pin slimline 0.22

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.10 4

TOTAL 3.81 4-foot medium bipin 3.30 8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.15 5

TOTAL 5.05

Table 11B.3 provides NES results for each TSL considered for GSFL under the Reduced Lighting Expertise sensitivity for the lower bound energy savings scenario (the upper bound is

unaffected because h igh lighting expertise is alre ady assumed). The Reduced Lighting Expertise sensitivity results in lower NES because it incorp orates fewer energy savings decisions (such as migrating to lower ballast factor ballasts or reduced-wattage lamp s) in the new construction and renovation market segments.11B-4 Table 11B.3 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segm ent-Based Scenario, Reduced Lighting Expertise (2012-2042) (quads)

NES (Quads) TSL Product Class

Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.60 8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.02 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 1

TOTAL 1.22 4-foot medium bipin 0.74 8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 2

TOTAL 1.56 4-foot medium bipin 1.71 8-foot single pin slimline 0.31

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25 2-foot U-shaped 0.08 3

TOTAL 2.63 4-foot medium bipin 2.01 8-foot single pin slimline 0.22

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25 2-foot U-shaped 0.09 4

TOTAL 3.21 4-foot medium bipin 2.69 8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.18 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25 2-foot U-shaped 0.12 5

TOTAL 4.0611B-5 Table 11B.4 through Table 11B.11 provide NES results for each trial standard level (TSL) considered for general service fluo rescent lamps under all eight possible scenarios. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads.11B-6 Table 11B.4 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

NES (Quads) TSL Product Class

Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.89 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25 8-foot recessed double contact high output (HO) 0.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output (SO) 0.69 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.04 1

TOTAL 3.01 4-foot medium bipin 0.99 8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.69 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.05 2

TOTAL 3.19 4-foot medium bipin 4.17 8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.23 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.69 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.19 3

TOTAL 6.59 4-foot medium bipin 6.96 8-foot single pin slimline 0.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.69 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.32 4

TOTAL 9.94 4-foot medium bipin 8.79 8-foot single pin slimline 0.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.82 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.40 5

TOTAL 12.00

Table 11B.5 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segmen t-Based Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class NES (Quads)11B-7 Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.61 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.02 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 1

TOTAL 1.54 4-foot medium bipin 0.75 8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 2

TOTAL 1.88 4-foot medium bipin 1.81 8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.08 3

TOTAL 3.06 4-foot medium bipin 2.30 8-foot single pin slimline 0.23

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.10 4

TOTAL 3.83 4-foot medium bipin 3.32 8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.15 5

TOTAL 5.08

Table 11B.6 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Roll-up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

NES (Quads) TSL Product Class

Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.76 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.11 1

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.2611B-8 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.03

TOTAL 2.16 4-foot medium bipin 0.99 8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.04 2

TOTAL 2.48 4-foot medium bipin 2.98 8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.14 3

TOTAL 4.62 4-foot medium bipin 4.26 8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.19 4

TOTAL 6.30 4-foot medium bipin 8.68 8-foot single pin slimline 0.33

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.71 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.39 5

TOTAL 11.5211B-9 Table 11B.7 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

NES (Quads) TSL Product Class

Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.61 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.02 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.13 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 1

TOTAL 1.57 4-foot medium bipin 0.75 8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.13 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 2

TOTAL 1.91 4-foot medium bipin 1.95 8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.13 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.09 3

TOTAL 3.23 4-foot medium bipin 2.54 8-foot single pin slimline 0.23

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.13 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.12 4

TOTAL 4.10 4-foot medium bipin 3.81 8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53 2-foot U-shaped 0.17 5

TOTAL 5.64

Table 11B.8 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, Market Segment-Bas ed Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

NES (Quads) TSL Product Class

Undiscounted11B-10 4-foot medium bipin 0.61 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.04 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 1

TOTAL 1.92 4-foot medium bipin 0.75 8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.20 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 2

TOTAL 2.26 4-foot medium bipin 2.33 8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.21 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.11 3

TOTAL 3.99 4-foot medium bipin 3.28 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.15 4

TOTAL 5.26 4-foot medium bipin 3.80 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.38 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.17 5

TOTAL 5.8411B-11 Table 11B.9 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

NES (Quads)

TSL Product Class

Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.76 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.21 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 1

TOTAL 2.11 4-foot medium bipin 0.99 8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.21 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.04 2

TOTAL 2.43 4-foot medium bipin 2.69 8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.21 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.12 3

TOTAL 4.27 4-foot medium bipin 3.82 8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.21 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.17 4

TOTAL 5.80 4-foot medium bipin 7.65 8-foot single pin slimline 0.33

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.58 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74 2-foot U-shaped 0.35 5

TOTAL 10.31

Table 11B.10 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class NES (Quads)11B-12 Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.89 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.04 1

TOTAL 2.88 4-foot medium bipin 0.99 8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.05 2

TOTAL 3.06 4-foot medium bipin 3.72 8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.23 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.17 3

TOTAL 5.99 4-foot medium bipin 6.16 8-foot single pin slimline 0.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.28 4

TOTAL 8.98 4-foot medium bipin 7.75 8-foot single pin slimline 0.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.67 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96 2-foot U-shaped 0.35 5

TOTAL 10.7711B-13 Table 11B.11 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, Market Segmen t-Based Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

NES (Quads) TSL Product Class

Undiscounted

4-foot medium bipin 0.61 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.04 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 1

TOTAL 1.85 4-foot medium bipin 0.75 8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.20 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.03 2

TOTAL 2.19 4-foot medium bipin 2.13 8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.21 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.10 3

TOTAL 3.71 4-foot medium bipin 2.90 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.13 4

TOTAL 4.80 4-foot medium bipin 3.32 8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.31 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66 2-foot U-shaped 0.15 5

TOTAL 5.27

11B.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps11B-14 Table 11B.12 and Table 11B.13 provide NES results for each TSL considered for incandescent reflector lamps under the 10-percent Lum en Incr ease sensitivity in the Existing Technologies and Emerging Technologies base case s, respectively. Resu lts are cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. In general, the 10 percent lumen increase scenario reflects lower energy savi ngs than the other shipment scenarios, as it incorporates higher-wattage or same-wattage lamp designs.

Table 11B.12 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Existing Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.05

2 0.53

3 1.19

4 1.67

5 2.04

Table 11B.13 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 -0.02

2 0.23

3 0.55

4 0.76

5 0.92

Table 11B.14 through Table 11B.17 provide NES results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector la mps under the Modified Em erging Tec hnologies scenario. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy sa vings in units of quads. In general, the Modified Emerging Technologies sc enario reflects lower energy sa vings than the other shipment

scenarios because the covered IRL stoc k is smaller in this base case.11B-15 Table 11B.14 Cumulative National Energy S avings for IRL in the Modified Emerging Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substi tution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.28

2 0.57

3 0.98

4 1.25

5 1.42

Table 11B.15 Cumulative National Energy S avings for IRL in the Modified Emerging Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substi tution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.15

2 0.39

3 0.77

4 0.89

5 1.04

Table 11B.16 Cumulative National Energy S avings for IRL in the Modified Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Subs titution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.28

2 0.56

3 0.97

4 1.24

5 1.42

Table 11B.17 Cumulative National Energy S avings for IRL in the Modified Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Subs titution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)11B-16 Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.15

2 0.38

3 0.76

4 0.88

5 1.04

Table 11B.18 and Table 11B.19 provide NES results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector la mps under the Baseline Lifetim e scenar io. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in un its of quads. The Baseline Lifetime scenario results in the same energy savings as the main shipment scenarios because only lifetime changes in this sensitivity, while efficacy remains the same.

Table 11B.18 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution, Baseline Lifetime Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

4 2.39

5 2.72

Table 11B.19 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution, Baseline Life time Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

4 0.94

5 1.12

Table 11B.20 through Table 11B.27 provide NES results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector la mps under all eight possible scenarios. Results are cum ulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads.11B-17 Table 11B.20 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.45

2 1.09

3 1.91

4 2.39

5 2.72

Table 11B.21 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.16

2 0.40

3 0.81

4 0.94

5 1.12

Table 11B.22 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.25

2 0.86

3 1.63

4 1.97

5 2.25

Table 11B.23 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.45

2 0.95

3 1.75

4 2.29

5 2.7211B-18 Table 11B.24 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.25

2 0.72

3 1.48

4 1.87

5 2.25

Table 11B.25 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.29

2 0.61

3 1.04

4 1.32

5 1.51

Table 11B.26 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.16

2 0.42

3 0.83

4 0.95

5 1.12

Table 11B.27 Cumulative National Energy Savi ngs for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.29

2 0.59

3 1.02

4 1.31

5 1.5111B-19 11B.2.2 NET PRESENT VALUE

11B.2.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Table 11B.28 and Table 11B.29 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for GSFL

under the L ighting Controls sensitivities for the upper- and lower-bound energy savings scenarios, respectively. Results are cumula tive to 2042 and are shown in 2008$. The Lighting Controls sensitivities reflect slightly lower NP V because as it incorpor ates lower operating hours

in the base case.11B-20 Table 11B.28 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Expertis e Scenario, Lighting Controls (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 3.28 6.82 8-foot single pin slimline 0.53 1.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.54 0.88 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.31 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.15 0.31 1

TOTAL 8.17 17.50 4-foot medium bipin 2.60 5.95 8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.49

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.68 1.09 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.31 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.27 2

TOTAL 7.66 16.93 4-foot medium bipin 9.25 19.78 8-foot single pin slimline 0.79 1.77

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.32 0.59 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.31 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.42 0.90 3

TOTAL 14.59 31.39 4-foot medium bipin 18.37 37.37 8-foot single pin slimline 0.81 1.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.31 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.84 1.70 4

TOTAL 25.95 52.87 4-foot medium bipin 22.40 45.12 8-foot single pin slimline 0.81 1.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.87 4.22 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 1.02 2.05 5

TOTAL 30.46 61.7111B-21 Table 11B.29 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segm ent-Based Expertise Scenario, Lighting Controls (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 1.09 2.84 8-foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.31

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.19 -0.24 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13 1

TOTAL 2.71 6.92 4-foot medium bipin 0.73 2.55 8-foot single pin slimline 0.56 1.46

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.77 1.20 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12 2

TOTAL 3.36 8.23 4-foot medium bipin 2.63 6.97 8-foot single pin slimline 0.79 1.77

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 0.39 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.32 3

TOTAL 5.11 12.47 4-foot medium bipin 6.31 14.17 8-foot single pin slimline 0.22 0.88

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.29 0.64 4

TOTAL 9.96 21.74 4-foot medium bipin 6.05 14.12 8-foot single pin slimline 0.32 1.04

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.90 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.28 0.64 5

TOTAL 9.95 22.38

Table 11B.30 provides NPV results for each TSL c onsidered for GSFL under the Reduced Lighting Expertise for the lower bound energy savings scenarios (the upper bound is unaffected

because h igh lighting expertise is assumed). Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 2008$. The Reduced Lighting Expertis e sensitivity results in lower NPV because it incorporates11B-22 fewer energy savings decisions (s uch as migrating to lower ballastfactor ballasts or reducedwattage lamps) in the new construc tion and renovation market segments.

Table 11B.30 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Se gment-Based Expertise Scenario, Reduced Lighting Expertise Sensit ivity (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.88 8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.34

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.19 -0.24 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO -0.01 0.07 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01 2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13 1

TOTAL 1.91 5.19 4-foot medium bipin 0.75 2.60 8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.77 1.20 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO -0.01 0.07 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01 2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12 2

TOTAL 2.57 6.50 4-foot medium bipin 2.47 6.64 8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 0.39 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO -0.01 0.07 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01 2-foot U-Shaped 0.11 0.30 3

TOTAL 4.13 10.37 4-foot medium bipin 5.46 12.40 8-foot single pin slimline 0.24 0.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO -0.01 0.07 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01 2-foot U-Shaped 0.25 0.56 4

TOTAL 8.27 18.15 4-foot medium bipin 4.58 11.00 8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.07

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.31 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01 2-foot U-Shaped 0.21 0.50 5

TOTAL 7.43 17.0011B-23 Table 11B.31 and Table 11B.38 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for general

service fluorescent lam ps under all eight possible scenarios.

Table 11B.31 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Exp ertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 3.30 6.86 8-foot single pin slimline 0.55 1.40

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.54 0.88 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.37 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.15 0.31 1

TOTAL 8.24 17.63 4-foot medium bipin 2.63 5.99 8-foot single pin slimline 0.60 1.53

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.68 1.09 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.37 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.27 2

TOTAL 7.73 17.07 4-foot medium bipin 9.40 20.06 8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.32 0.59 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.37 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.43 0.91 3

TOTAL 14.81 31.80 4-foot medium bipin 18.66 37.88 8-foot single pin slimline 0.84 1.97

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.37 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.85 1.72 4

TOTAL 26.31 53.53 4-foot medium bipin 22.79 45.79 8-foot single pin slimline 0.84 1.97

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.91 4.29 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 1.04 2.08 5

TOTAL 30.93 62.5511B-24 Table 11B.32 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.88 8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.34

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.19 -0.24 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13 1

TOTAL 2.75 7.00 4-foot medium bipin 0.75 2.60 8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.77 1.20 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12 2

TOTAL 3.41 8.31 4-foot medium bipin 2.68 7.05 8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 0.39 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.32 3

TOTAL 5.18 12.60 4-foot medium bipin 6.34 14.22 8-foot single pin slimline 0.24 0.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.29 0.65 4

TOTAL 10.02 21.84 4-foot medium bipin 6.12 14.24 8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.07

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.91 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.28 0.65 5

TOTAL 10.05 22.5711B-25 Table 11B.33 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, High Ex pertise Scenario ( 2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 2.57 5.47 8-foot single pin slimline 0.54 1.40

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.35 0.54 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.45 1.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.25 1

TOTAL 5.79 12.61 4-foot medium bipin 2.76 6.15 8-foot single pin slimline 0.60 1.53

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.71 1.08 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.45 1.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 0.13 0.28 2

TOTAL 6.40 14.00 4-foot medium bipin 6.08 14.05 8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.16 0.28 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.45 1.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 0.28 0.64 3

TOTAL 9.61 21.87 4-foot medium bipin 12.35 26.35 8-foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.33

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.45 1.11 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 0.56 1.20 4

TOTAL 17.51 37.07 4-foot medium bipin 22.66 45.44 8-foot single pin slimline 0.73 1.75

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.90 4.21 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 1.03 2.07 5

TOTAL 30.20 60.9211B-26 Table 11B.34 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, Market Se gment-Based Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.88 8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.34

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.19 -0.24 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 0.34 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13 1

TOTAL 2.78 7.08 4-foot medium bipin 0.75 2.60 8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.77 1.20 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 0.34 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12 2

TOTAL 3.43 8.39 4-foot medium bipin 2.76 7.30 8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 0.39 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 0.34 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.13 0.33 3

TOTAL 5.30 12.94 4-foot medium bipin 6.92 15.60 8-foot single pin slimline 0.24 0.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 0.34 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.31 0.71 4

TOTAL 10.63 23.34 4-foot medium bipin 6.77 15.84 8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.07

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.42 1.16 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63 2-foot U-Shaped 0.31 0.72 5

TOTAL 10.81 24.4811B-27 Table 11B.35 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Existing Technologies, Shift, Market Segmen t-Based Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012- 2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.89 8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.35

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.14 -0.16 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.54 1.37 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13 1

TOTAL 3.51 8.77 4-foot medium bipin 0.74 2.60 8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.78 1.22 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.54 1.37 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12 2

TOTAL 4.12 9.99 4-foot medium bipin 3.57 8.74 8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.26 0.47 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.54 1.37 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.16 0.40 3

TOTAL 6.94 16.23 4-foot medium bipin 7.88 17.23 8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.09

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.54 1.37 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.36 0.78 4

TOTAL 12.55 27.00 4-foot medium bipin 6.61 15.55 8-foot single pin slimline 0.37 1.14

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.42 1.20 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.30 0.71 5

TOTAL 10.93 24.8511B-28 Table 11B.36 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, High Expe rtise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 2.57 5.47 8-foot single pin slimline 0.54 1.40

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.35 0.54 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37 0.90 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.25 1

TOTAL 5.71 12.41 4-foot medium bipin 2.76 6.15 8-foot single pin slimline 0.60 1.53

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.71 1.08 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37 0.90 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 0.13 0.28 2

TOTAL 6.32 13.79 4-foot medium bipin 5.65 12.95 8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.16 0.28 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37 0.90 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 0.26 0.59 3

TOTAL 9.08 20.50 4-foot medium bipin 11.31 23.86 8-foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.33

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37 0.90 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 0.51 1.08 4

TOTAL 16.35 34.25 4-foot medium bipin 20.90 41.11 8-foot single pin slimline 0.73 1.75

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.63 3.51 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85 2-foot U-Shaped 0.95 1.87 5

TOTAL 28.09 55.6811B-29 Table 11B.37 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Shift, High Exp ertise Scenario (2012- 2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 3.30 6.86 8-foot single pin slimline 0.55 1.40

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.54 0.88 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.26 2.80 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.15 0.31 1

TOTAL 8.02 17.06 4-foot medium bipin 2.63 5.99 8-foot single pin slimline 0.60 1.53

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.68 1.09 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.26 2.80 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.27 2

TOTAL 7.51 16.49 4-foot medium bipin 8.76 18.47 8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.32 0.59 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.26 2.80 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.40 0.84 3

TOTAL 13.92 29.55 4-foot medium bipin 17.24 34.39 8-foot single pin slimline 0.84 1.97

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.26 2.80 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.78 1.56 4

TOTAL 24.60 49.29 4-foot medium bipin 21.03 41.45 8-foot single pin slimline 0.84 1.97

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.63 3.57 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81 2-foot U-Shaped 0.96 1.88 5

TOTAL 28.82 57.2811B-30 Table 11B.38 Cumulative NPV Results for Ge neral Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the Emerging Technologies, Shift, Market Segm ent-Based Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$)

TSL Product Class Discounted

at 7% Discounted at

3%

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.89 8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.35

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.14 -0.16 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.44 1.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13 1

TOTAL 3.41 8.50 4-foot medium bipin 0.74 2.60 8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.78 1.22 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.44 1.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12 2

TOTAL 4.02 9.72 4-foot medium bipin 3.43 8.34 8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.26 0.47 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.44 1.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.16 0.38 3

TOTAL 6.70 15.54 4-foot medium bipin 7.25 15.68 8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.09

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.44 1.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.33 0.71 4

TOTAL 11.79 25.11 4-foot medium bipin 5.96 13.95 8-foot single pin slimline 0.37 1.14

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10 4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.94 4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19 2-foot U-Shaped 0.27 0.63 5

TOTAL 10.17 22.9211B-31 11B.2.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Table 11B.39 and Table 11B.40 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for incandescent reflector lamps under the 10-percent Lum en Incr ease sensitivity in the Existing Technologies and Emerging Technol ogies base case scenarios, respectively. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 2008$. In general, the 10 percent lumen increase scenario reflects lower NPV than the other shipment scenario s, as it incorporates higher-wattage or samewattage lamp designs.

Table 11B.39 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Existing Tec hnologies, 10% Lumen Increase (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 -1.02 -1.85

2 2.56 4.81

3 3.63 6.99

4 6.35 12.30

5 7.65 14.88

Table 11B.40 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 -0.84 -1.50

2 1.35 2.50

3 2.01 3.80

4 3.39 6.43

5 4.07 7.75

Table 11B.41 through Table 11B.44 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for

incandes cent reflector lamps under Modified Emer ging Technologies sensitivities. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 2008$. In ge neral, the Modified Emerging Technologies scenario reflects lower NPV than the other ship ment scenarios because it incorporates higherwattage or same-wattage lamp designs.11B-32 Table 11B.41 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.46 1.04

2 2.81 5.30

3 3.87 7.36

4 5.51 10.51

5 6.16 11.77

Table 11B.42 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 -0.09 -0.03

2 2.06 3.82

3 3.03 5.69

4 4.09 7.67

5 4.74 8.93

Table 11B.43 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Modified Emerging Technologies, Rollup, R-CFL Product Substituti on (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.46 1.04

2 2.77 5.25

3 3.80 7.28

4 5.48 10.48

5 6.16 11.7711B-33 Table 11B.44 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Modified Emerging Technologies, Rollup, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 -0.09 -0.03

2 2.02 3.77

3 2.96 5.61

4 4.06 7.64

5 4.74 8.93

Table 11B.45 and Table 11B.46 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for

incandes cent reflector lamps under the Baseline Li fetime sensitivity. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 2008$. In general, the Ba seline Lifetime scenario reflects lower NPV than the other shipment scenarios because th e shorter lifetimes neces sitate greater lamp replacement shipments and, therefore, hi gher incremental equipment costs.

Table 11B.45 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Baseline Lifetime (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

4 5.22 10.81

5 4.86 10.13

Table 11B.46 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Baseline Lifetime (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

4 1.83 3.78

5 2.53 5.12

Table 11B.47 through and Table 11B.54 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for incandescent reflector lamp s under all eight possible m ain shipment scenarios.11B-34 Table 11B.47 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.45 1.11

2 4.59 8.94

3 6.34 12.50

4 9.06 17.81

5 10.16 20.01

Table 11B.48 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 -0.09 -0.04

2 2.08 3.93

3 3.04 5.84

4 4.20 8.02

5 4.90 9.38

Table 11B.49 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 -0.22 -0.25

2 3.73 7.18

3 5.36 10.49

4 7.49 14.59

5 8.54 16.6511B-35 Table 11B.50 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technol ogies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.45 1.11

2 4.19 8.11

3 5.72 11.22

4 8.79 17.25

5 10.16 20.01

Table 11B.51 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Existing Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 -0.22 -0.25

2 3.34 6.36

3 4.74 9.21

4 7.22 14.03

5 8.54 16.65

Table 11B.52 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Emerging Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.47 1.07

2 2.89 5.53

3 3.99 7.70

4 5.67 10.98

5 6.34 12.3111B-36 Table 11B.53 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 -0.09 -0.04

2 2.13 4.01

3 3.13 5.98

4 4.23 8.07

5 4.90 9.38

Table 11B.54 Cumulative NPV Results for IR L: Emerging Technol ogies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV (billion 2008$) TSL

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.47 1.07

2 2.84 5.45

3 3.90 7.56

4 5.64 10.93

5 6.34 12.31