11B-i

APPENDIX 11B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACT 

ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

11B.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................11B-1

11B.2 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................11B-1

11B.2.1 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ..............................................................11B-1

11B.2.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................... 11B-1

11B.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................... 11B-13

11B.2.2 NET PRESENT VALUE............................................................................11B-19

11B.2.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................. 11B-19

11B.2.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................... 11B-31

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 11B.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario, 

Lighting Controls Sensitivity (2012-2042) (quads)...................................11B-2

Table 11B.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based 

Scenario, Lighting Controls Sensitivity (2012-2042) (quads)..................11B-2

Table 11B.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based 

Scenario, Reduced Lighting Expertise (2012-2042) (quads).....................11B-4

Table 11B.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario 

(2012-2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B-6

Table 11B.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario 

(2012-2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B-6

Table 11B.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Existing, Roll-up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario 

(2012-2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B-7

Table 11B.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Existing, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario 

(2012-2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B-9

Table 11B.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, Market Segment-Based Lighting 

Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ...................................................11B-9

Table 11B.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll-up, High Lighting Expertise 

Scenario (2012-2042) (quads).................................................................11B-11
11B-ii

Table 11B.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario 

(2012-2042) (quads).................................................................................11B-11

Table 11B.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, Market Segment-Based Scenario 

(2012-2042) (quads).................................................................................11B-13

Table 11B.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing 

Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads).......11B-14

Table 11B.13 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging 

Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads).......11B-14

Table 11B.14 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Modified Emerging 

Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-

2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-15

Table 11B.15 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Modified Emerging 

Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) 

(quads)......................................................................................................11B-15

Table 11B.16 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Modified Emerging 

Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-

2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-15

Table 11B.17 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Modified Emerging 

Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) 

(quads)......................................................................................................11B-15

Table 11B.18 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing 

Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution, Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario (2012-2042) (quads)..................................................................11B-16

Table 11B.19 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging 

Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution, Baseline Lifetime 

Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) ...................................................11B-16

Table 11B.20 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing 

Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-

2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-17

Table 11B.21 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging 

Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) 

(quads)......................................................................................................11B-17

Table 11B.22 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing 

Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) 

(quads)......................................................................................................11B-17

Table 11B.23 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing 

Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-

2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-17

Table 11B.24 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing 

Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) 

(quads)......................................................................................................11B-18
11B-iii

Table 11B.25 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging 

Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-

2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-18

Table 11B.26 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging 

Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) 

(quads)......................................................................................................11B-18

Table 11B.27 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging 

Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-

2042) (quads) ...........................................................................................11B-18

Table 11B.28 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario, Lighting 

Controls (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)......................................................11B-20

Table 11B.29 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based 

Expertise Scenario, Lighting Controls (2012-2042) (billion 2008$).......11B-21

Table 11B.30 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based 

Expertise Scenario, Reduced Lighting Expertise Sensitivity (2012-

2042) (billion 2008$)...............................................................................11B-22

Table 11B.31 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) 

(billion 2008$) .........................................................................................11B-23

Table 11B.32 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based 

Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .....................................11B-24

Table 11B.33 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, High Expertise Scenario (2012-

2042) (billion 2008$)...............................................................................11B-25

Table 11B.34 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Existing Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Expertise 

Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .....................................................11B-26

Table 11B.35 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Existing Technologies, Shift, Market Segment-Based Lighting 

Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .....................................11B-27

Table 11B.36 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, High Expertise Scenario (2012-

2042) (billion 2008$)...............................................................................11B-28

Table 11B.37 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Emerging Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012-

2042) (billion 2008$)...............................................................................11B-29

Table 11B.38 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under 

the Emerging Technologies, Shift, Market Segment-Based Expertise 

Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) .....................................................11B-30

Table 11B.39 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, 10% Lumen 

Increase (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)......................................................11B-31
11B-iv

Table 11B.40 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen 

Increase (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)......................................................11B-31

Table 11B.41 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, 

Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ............11B-32

Table 11B.42 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, 

Shift, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)...................11B-32

Table 11B.43 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, 

Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)........11B-32

Table 11B.44 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, 

Roll-up, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)..............11B-33

Table 11B.45 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Baseline 

Lifetime (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)......................................................11B-33

Table 11B.46 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Baseline 

Lifetime (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)......................................................11B-33

Table 11B.47 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)...................................11B-34

Table 11B.48 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)...................................11B-34

Table 11B.49 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, BR 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)...................................11B-34

Table 11B.50 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)...................................11B-35

Table 11B.51 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll-up, BR 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)...................................11B-35

Table 11B.52 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, R-CFL 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)...................................11B-35

Table 11B.53 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, BR 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)...................................11B-36

Table 11B.54 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, RCFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) ..........................11B-36
11B-1

APPENDIX 11B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACTS 

ANALYSIS

11B.1 INTRODUCTION 

In this appendix, DOE presents the national energy savings (NES) and net present value 

(NPV) results for the additional sensitivity scenarios it considered. For general service 

fluorescent lamps (GSFL), these include the Lighting Controls sensitivity and the Reduced 

Lighting Expertise sensitivity. For incandescent reflector lamps (IRL), these include the 

Baseline Lifetime, the Modified Emerging Technology Penetration and the 10-percent Lumen 

Increase sensitivities. DOE also presents the NES and NPV results for all eight possible 

shipments scenarios for GSFL and IRL. 

11B.2 RESULTS 

11B.2.1 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS 

11B.2.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Table 11B.1 and Table 11B.2 provide NES results for each TSL considered for GSFL 

under the Lighting Controls sensitivities for the upper-and lower-bound energy savings 

scenarios, respectively. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings 

in units of quads. The Lighting Controls sensitivity reflects slightly lower NES because it 

incorporates lower operating hours in the base case. 
11B-2

Table 11B.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario, Lighting Controls Sensitivity 

(2012-2042) (quads) 

NES 

(Quads) TSL Product Class 

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.89

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact high output (HO) 0.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output (SO) 0.68

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.04

1 

TOTAL 2.98

4-foot medium bipin 0.99

8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.68

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.04

2 

TOTAL 3.16

4-foot medium bipin 4.12

8-foot single pin slimline 0.31

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.23

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.68

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.19

3 

TOTAL 6.52

4-foot medium bipin 6.87

8-foot single pin slimline 0.36

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.68

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.31

4 

TOTAL 9.83

4-foot medium bipin 8.67

8-foot single pin slimline 0.36

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.81

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.39

5 

TOTAL 11.86

Table 11B.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario, Lighting Controls 

Sensitivity (2012-2042) (quads) 

TSL Product Class NES 

(Quads) 
11B-3

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.60

8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.02

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

1 

TOTAL 1.53

4-foot medium bipin 0.74

8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

2 

TOTAL 1.87

4-foot medium bipin 1.80

8-foot single pin slimline 0.31

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.08

3 

TOTAL 3.03

4-foot medium bipin 2.29

8-foot single pin slimline 0.22

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.10

4 

TOTAL 3.81

4-foot medium bipin 3.30

8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.15

5 

TOTAL 5.05

Table 11B.3 provides NES results for each TSL considered for GSFL under the Reduced 

Lighting Expertise sensitivity for the lower bound energy savings scenario (the upper bound is 

unaffected because high lighting expertise is already assumed). The Reduced Lighting Expertise 

sensitivity results in lower NES because it incorporates fewer energy savings decisions (such as 

migrating to lower ballast factor ballasts or reduced-wattage lamps) in the new construction and 

renovation market segments. 
11B-4

Table 11B.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario, Reduced Lighting 

Expertise (2012-2042) (quads) 

NES 

(Quads) TSL Product Class 

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.60

8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.02

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

1 

TOTAL 1.22

4-foot medium bipin 0.74

8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

2 

TOTAL 1.56

4-foot medium bipin 1.71

8-foot single pin slimline 0.31

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25

2-foot U-shaped 0.08

3 

TOTAL 2.63

4-foot medium bipin 2.01

8-foot single pin slimline 0.22

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25

2-foot U-shaped 0.09

4 

TOTAL 3.21

4-foot medium bipin 2.69

8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.18

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.25

2-foot U-shaped 0.12

5 

TOTAL 4.06
11B-5

Table 11B.4 through Table 11B.11 provide NES results for each trial standard level (TSL) 

considered for general service fluorescent lamps under all eight possible scenarios. Results are 

cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. 
11B-6

Table 11B.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

NES 

(Quads) TSL Product Class 

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.89

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact high output (HO) 0.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output (SO) 0.69

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.04

1 

TOTAL 3.01

4-foot medium bipin 0.99

8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.69

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.05

2 

TOTAL 3.19

4-foot medium bipin 4.17

8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.23

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.69

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.19

3 

TOTAL 6.59

4-foot medium bipin 6.96

8-foot single pin slimline 0.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.69

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.32

4 

TOTAL 9.94

4-foot medium bipin 8.79

8-foot single pin slimline 0.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.82

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.40

5 

TOTAL 12.00

Table 11B.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

TSL Product Class NES 

(Quads) 
11B-7

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.61

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.02

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

1 

TOTAL 1.54

4-foot medium bipin 0.75

8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

2 

TOTAL 1.88

4-foot medium bipin 1.81

8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.08

3 

TOTAL 3.06

4-foot medium bipin 2.30

8-foot single pin slimline 0.23

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.10

4 

TOTAL 3.83

4-foot medium bipin 3.32

8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.15

5 

TOTAL 5.08

Table 11B.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Existing, Roll-up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

NES 

(Quads) TSL Product Class 

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.76

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.11

1 

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26
11B-8

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

TOTAL 2.16

4-foot medium bipin 0.99

8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.04

2 

TOTAL 2.48

4-foot medium bipin 2.98

8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.14

3 

TOTAL 4.62

4-foot medium bipin 4.26

8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.19

4 

TOTAL 6.30

4-foot medium bipin 8.68

8-foot single pin slimline 0.33

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.71

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.39

5 

TOTAL 11.52
11B-9

Table 11B.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Existing, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

NES 

(Quads) TSL Product Class 

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.61

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.02

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.13

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

1 

TOTAL 1.57

4-foot medium bipin 0.75

8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.13

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

2 

TOTAL 1.91

4-foot medium bipin 1.95

8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.19

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.13

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.09

3 

TOTAL 3.23

4-foot medium bipin 2.54

8-foot single pin slimline 0.23

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.13

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.12

4 

TOTAL 4.10

4-foot medium bipin 3.81

8-foot single pin slimline 0.24

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.53

2-foot U-shaped 0.17

5 

TOTAL 5.64

Table 11B.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Existing, Shift, Market Segment-Based Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) 

(quads) 

NES 

(Quads) TSL Product Class 

Undiscounted 
11B-10

4-foot medium bipin 0.61

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.04

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

1 

TOTAL 1.92

4-foot medium bipin 0.75

8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

2 

TOTAL 2.26

4-foot medium bipin 2.33

8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.21

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.11

3 

TOTAL 3.99

4-foot medium bipin 3.28

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.15

4 

TOTAL 5.26

4-foot medium bipin 3.80

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.38

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.17

5 

TOTAL 5.84
11B-11

Table 11B.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Emerging, Roll-up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

NES 

(Quads)

TSL Product Class 

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.76

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.21

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

1 

TOTAL 2.11

4-foot medium bipin 0.99

8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.21

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.04

2 

TOTAL 2.43

4-foot medium bipin 2.69

8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.21

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.12

3 

TOTAL 4.27

4-foot medium bipin 3.82

8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.21

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.17

4 

TOTAL 5.80

4-foot medium bipin 7.65

8-foot single pin slimline 0.33

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.58

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.74

2-foot U-shaped 0.35

5 

TOTAL 10.31

Table 11B.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Emerging, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

TSL Product Class NES 

(Quads)
11B-12

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.89

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.04

1 

TOTAL 2.88

4-foot medium bipin 0.99

8-foot single pin slimline 0.28

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.05

2 

TOTAL 3.06

4-foot medium bipin 3.72

8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.23

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.17

3 

TOTAL 5.99

4-foot medium bipin 6.16

8-foot single pin slimline 0.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.28

4 

TOTAL 8.98

4-foot medium bipin 7.75

8-foot single pin slimline 0.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.62

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.67

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.96

2-foot U-shaped 0.35

5 

TOTAL 10.77
11B-13

Table 11B.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Under the Emerging, Shift, Market Segment-Based Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

NES 

(Quads) TSL Product Class 

Undiscounted 

4-foot medium bipin 0.61

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.04

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

1 

TOTAL 1.85

4-foot medium bipin 0.75

8-foot single pin slimline 0.27

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.03

2 

TOTAL 2.19

4-foot medium bipin 2.13

8-foot single pin slimline 0.32

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.21

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.10

3 

TOTAL 3.71

4-foot medium bipin 2.90

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.56

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.13

4 

TOTAL 4.80

4-foot medium bipin 3.32

8-foot single pin slimline 0.25

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.57

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.31

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.66

2-foot U-shaped 0.15

5 

TOTAL 5.27

11B.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps 
11B-14

Table 11B.12 and Table 11B.13 provide NES results for each TSL considered for 

incandescent reflector lamps under the 10-percent Lumen Increase sensitivity in the Existing 

Technologies and Emerging Technologies base cases, respectively. Results are cumulative to 

2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. In general, the 10 percent 

lumen increase scenario reflects lower energy savings than the other shipment scenarios, as it 

incorporates higher-wattage or same-wattage lamp designs. 

Table 11B.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, 

10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.05

2 0.53

3 1.19

4 1.67

5 2.04

Table 11B.13 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, 

10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 -0.02

2 0.23

3 0.55

4 0.76

5 0.92

Table 11B.14 through Table 11B.17 provide NES results for each TSL considered for 

incandescent reflector lamps under the Modified Emerging Technologies scenario. Results are 

cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. In general, the 

Modified Emerging Technologies scenario reflects lower energy savings than the other shipment 

scenarios because the covered IRL stock is smaller in this base case. 
11B-15

Table 11B.14 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Modified Emerging 

Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.28 

2 0.57 

3 0.98 

4 1.25 

5 1.42 

Table 11B.15 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Modified Emerging 

Technologies, Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.15 

2 0.39 

3 0.77 

4 0.89 

5 1.04 

Table 11B.16 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Modified Emerging 

Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.28 

2 0.56 

3 0.97 

4 1.24 

5 1.42 

Table 11B.17 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Modified Emerging 

Technologies, Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 
11B-16

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.15 

2 0.38 

3 0.76 

4 0.88 

5 1.04 

Table 11B.18 and Table 11B.19 provide NES results for each TSL considered for 

incandescent reflector lamps under the Baseline Lifetime scenario. Results are cumulative to 

2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. The Baseline Lifetime scenario 

results in the same energy savings as the main shipment scenarios because only lifetime changes 

in this sensitivity, while efficacy remains the same. 

Table 11B.18 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, 

Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution, Baseline Lifetime Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

4 2.39

5 2.72

Table 11B.19 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, 

Roll-up, BR Product Substitution, Baseline Lifetime Increase Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

4 0.94

5 1.12

Table 11B.20 through Table 11B.27 provide NES results for each TSL considered for 

incandescent reflector lamps under all eight possible scenarios. Results are cumulative to 2042 

and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. 
11B-17

Table 11B.20 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, 

Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.45

2 1.09

3 1.91

4 2.39

5 2.72

Table 11B.21 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, 

Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.16

2 0.40

3 0.81

4 0.94

5 1.12

Table 11B.22 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, 

Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.25

2 0.86

3 1.63

4 1.97

5 2.25

Table 11B.23 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, 

Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.45

2 0.95

3 1.75

4 2.29

5 2.72
11B-18

Table 11B.24 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies, 

Roll-up, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.25

2 0.72

3 1.48

4 1.87

5 2.25

Table 11B.25 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, 

Shift, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.29

2 0.61

3 1.04

4 1.32

5 1.51

Table 11B.26 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, 

Shift, BR Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.16

2 0.42

3 0.83

4 0.95

5 1.12

Table 11B.27 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies, 

Roll-up, R-CFL Product Substitution Scenario (2012-2042) (quads) 

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads) 

1 0.29

2 0.59

3 1.02

4 1.31

5 1.51
11B-19

11B.2.2 NET PRESENT VALUE 

11B.2.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

Table 11B.28 and Table 11B.29 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for GSFL 

under the Lighting Controls sensitivities for the upper- and lower-bound energy savings 

scenarios, respectively. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 2008$. The Lighting 

Controls sensitivities reflect slightly lower NPV because as it incorporates lower operating hours 

in the base case. 
11B-20

Table 11B.28 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Existing Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario, Lighting Controls (2012-2042) 

(billion 2008$) 

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 3.28 6.82

8-foot single pin slimline 0.53 1.37

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.54 0.88

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.31

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.15 0.31

1 

TOTAL 8.17 17.50

4-foot medium bipin 2.60 5.95

8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.49

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.68 1.09

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.31

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.27

2 

TOTAL 7.66 16.93

4-foot medium bipin 9.25 19.78

8-foot single pin slimline 0.79 1.77

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.32 0.59

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.31

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.42 0.90

3 

TOTAL 14.59 31.39

4-foot medium bipin 18.37 37.37

8-foot single pin slimline 0.81 1.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.31

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.84 1.70

4 

TOTAL 25.95 52.87

4-foot medium bipin 22.40 45.12

8-foot single pin slimline 0.81 1.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.87 4.22

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 1.02 2.05

5 

TOTAL 30.46 61.71
11B-21

Table 11B.29 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario, Lighting 

Controls (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 1.09 2.84

8-foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.31

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.19 -0.24

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13

1 

TOTAL 2.71 6.92

4-foot medium bipin 0.73 2.55

8-foot single pin slimline 0.56 1.46

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.77 1.20

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12

2 

TOTAL 3.36 8.23

4-foot medium bipin 2.63 6.97

8-foot single pin slimline 0.79 1.77

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 0.39

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.32

3 

TOTAL 5.11 12.47

4-foot medium bipin 6.31 14.17

8-foot single pin slimline 0.22 0.88

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.29 0.64

4 

TOTAL 9.96 21.74

4-foot medium bipin 6.05 14.12

8-foot single pin slimline 0.32 1.04

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.90

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.28 0.64

5 

TOTAL 9.95 22.38

Table 11B.30 provides NPV results for each TSL considered for GSFL under the Reduced 

Lighting Expertise for the lower bound energy savings scenarios (the upper bound is unaffected 

because high lighting expertise is assumed). Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 

2008$. The Reduced Lighting Expertise sensitivity results in lower NPV because it incorporates 
11B-22

fewer energy savings decisions (such as migrating to lower ballast factor ballasts or reducedwattage lamps) in the new construction and renovation market segments. 

Table 11B.30 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario, Reduced 

Lighting Expertise Sensitivity (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.88

8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.34

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.19 -0.24

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO -0.01 0.07

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01

2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13

1 

TOTAL 1.91 5.19

4-foot medium bipin 0.75 2.60

8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.77 1.20

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO -0.01 0.07

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01

2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12

2 

TOTAL 2.57 6.50

4-foot medium bipin 2.47 6.64

8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 0.39

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO -0.01 0.07

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01

2-foot U-Shaped 0.11 0.30

3 

TOTAL 4.13 10.37

4-foot medium bipin 5.46 12.40

8-foot single pin slimline 0.24 0.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO -0.01 0.07

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01

2-foot U-Shaped 0.25 0.56

4 

TOTAL 8.27 18.15

4-foot medium bipin 4.58 11.00

8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.07

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.31

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.44 1.01

2-foot U-Shaped 0.21 0.50

5 

TOTAL 7.43 17.00
11B-23

Table 11B.31 and Table 11B.38 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for general 

service fluorescent lamps under all eight possible scenarios. 

Table 11B.31 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Existing Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 3.30 6.86

8-foot single pin slimline 0.55 1.40

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.54 0.88

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.37

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.15 0.31

1 

TOTAL 8.24 17.63

4-foot medium bipin 2.63 5.99

8-foot single pin slimline 0.60 1.53

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.68 1.09

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.37

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.27

2 

TOTAL 7.73 17.07

4-foot medium bipin 9.40 20.06

8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.32 0.59

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.37

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.43 0.91

3 

TOTAL 14.81 31.80

4-foot medium bipin 18.66 37.88

8-foot single pin slimline 0.84 1.97

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.37

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.85 1.72

4 

TOTAL 26.31 53.53

4-foot medium bipin 22.79 45.79

8-foot single pin slimline 0.84 1.97

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.91 4.29

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 1.04 2.08

5 

TOTAL 30.93 62.55
11B-24

Table 11B.32 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) 

(billion 2008$)

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.88

8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.34

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.19 -0.24

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13

1 

TOTAL 2.75 7.00

4-foot medium bipin 0.75 2.60

8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.77 1.20

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12

2 

TOTAL 3.41 8.31

4-foot medium bipin 2.68 7.05

8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 0.39

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.32

3 

TOTAL 5.18 12.60

4-foot medium bipin 6.34 14.22

8-foot single pin slimline 0.24 0.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.08 0.26

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.29 0.65

4 

TOTAL 10.02 21.84

4-foot medium bipin 6.12 14.24

8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.07

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.91

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.28 0.65

5 

TOTAL 10.05 22.57
11B-25

Table 11B.33 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Existing Technologies, Roll-up, High Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 2.57 5.47

8-foot single pin slimline 0.54 1.40

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.35 0.54

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.45 1.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.25

1 

TOTAL 5.79 12.61

4-foot medium bipin 2.76 6.15

8-foot single pin slimline 0.60 1.53

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.71 1.08

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.45 1.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 0.13 0.28

2 

TOTAL 6.40 14.00

4-foot medium bipin 6.08 14.05

8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.16 0.28

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.45 1.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 0.28 0.64

3 

TOTAL 9.61 21.87

4-foot medium bipin 12.35 26.35

8-foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.33

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.45 1.11

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 0.56 1.20

4 

TOTAL 17.51 37.07

4-foot medium bipin 22.66 45.44

8-foot single pin slimline 0.73 1.75

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.90 4.21

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 1.03 2.07

5 

TOTAL 30.20 60.92
11B-26

Table 11B.34 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Existing Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) 

(billion 2008$)

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.88

8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.34

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.19 -0.24

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 0.34

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13

1 

TOTAL 2.78 7.08

4-foot medium bipin 0.75 2.60

8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.77 1.20

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 0.34

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12

2 

TOTAL 3.43 8.39

4-foot medium bipin 2.76 7.30

8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.22 0.39

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 0.34

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.13 0.33

3 

TOTAL 5.30 12.94

4-foot medium bipin 6.92 15.60

8-foot single pin slimline 0.24 0.91

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.11 0.34

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.31 0.71

4 

TOTAL 10.63 23.34

4-foot medium bipin 6.77 15.84

8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.07

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.42 1.16

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.19 2.63

2-foot U-Shaped 0.31 0.72

5 

TOTAL 10.81 24.48
11B-27

Table 11B.35 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Existing Technologies, Shift, Market Segment-Based Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012-

2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.89

8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.35

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.14 -0.16

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.54 1.37

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13

1 

TOTAL 3.51 8.77

4-foot medium bipin 0.74 2.60

8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.78 1.22

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.54 1.37

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12

2 

TOTAL 4.12 9.99

4-foot medium bipin 3.57 8.74

8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.26 0.47

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.54 1.37

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.16 0.40

3 

TOTAL 6.94 16.23

4-foot medium bipin 7.88 17.23

8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.09

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.54 1.37

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.36 0.78

4 

TOTAL 12.55 27.00

4-foot medium bipin 6.61 15.55

8-foot single pin slimline 0.37 1.14

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.42 1.20

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.30 0.71

5 

TOTAL 10.93 24.85
11B-28

Table 11B.36 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, High Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$)

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 2.57 5.47

8-foot single pin slimline 0.54 1.40

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.35 0.54

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37 0.90

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.25

1 

TOTAL 5.71 12.41

4-foot medium bipin 2.76 6.15

8-foot single pin slimline 0.60 1.53

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.71 1.08

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37 0.90

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 0.13 0.28

2 

TOTAL 6.32 13.79

4-foot medium bipin 5.65 12.95

8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.16 0.28

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37 0.90

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 0.26 0.59

3 

TOTAL 9.08 20.50

4-foot medium bipin 11.31 23.86

8-foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.33

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37 0.90

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 0.51 1.08

4 

TOTAL 16.35 34.25

4-foot medium bipin 20.90 41.11

8-foot single pin slimline 0.73 1.75

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.63 3.51

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.76 3.85

2-foot U-Shaped 0.95 1.87

5 

TOTAL 28.09 55.68
11B-29

Table 11B.37 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Emerging Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 3.30 6.86

8-foot single pin slimline 0.55 1.40

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.54 0.88

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.26 2.80

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.15 0.31

1 

TOTAL 8.02 17.06

4-foot medium bipin 2.63 5.99

8-foot single pin slimline 0.60 1.53

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.68 1.09

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.26 2.80

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.12 0.27

2 

TOTAL 7.51 16.49

4-foot medium bipin 8.76 18.47

8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.32 0.59

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.26 2.80

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.40 0.84

3 

TOTAL 13.92 29.55

4-foot medium bipin 17.24 34.39

8-foot single pin slimline 0.84 1.97

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.26 2.80

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.78 1.56

4 

TOTAL 24.60 49.29

4-foot medium bipin 21.03 41.45

8-foot single pin slimline 0.84 1.97

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.98 3.36

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.63 3.57

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 2.22 4.81

2-foot U-Shaped 0.96 1.88

5 

TOTAL 28.82 57.28
11B-30

Table 11B.38 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the 

Emerging Technologies, Shift, Market Segment-Based Expertise Scenario (2012-2042) 

(billion 2008$)

NPV 

(billion 2008$) 

TSL Product Class Discounted 

at 7% 

Discounted at 

3% 

4-foot medium bipin 1.11 2.89

8-foot single pin slimline 0.51 1.35

8-foot recessed double contact HO -0.14 -0.16

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.44 1.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.05 0.13

1 

TOTAL 3.41 8.50

4-foot medium bipin 0.74 2.60

8-foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.50

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.78 1.22

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.44 1.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.03 0.12

2 

TOTAL 4.02 9.72

4-foot medium bipin 3.43 8.34

8-foot single pin slimline 0.82 1.82

8-foot recessed double contact HO 0.26 0.47

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.44 1.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.16 0.38

3 

TOTAL 6.70 15.54

4-foot medium bipin 7.25 15.68

8-foot single pin slimline 0.33 1.09

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.87 3.17

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.44 1.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.33 0.71

4 

TOTAL 11.79 25.11

4-foot medium bipin 5.96 13.95

8-foot single pin slimline 0.37 1.14

8-foot recessed double contact HO 1.81 3.10

4-foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.94

4-foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.44 3.19

2-foot U-Shaped 0.27 0.63

5 

TOTAL 10.17 22.92
11B-31

11B.2.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps 

Table 11B.39 and Table 11B.40 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for 

incandescent reflector lamps under the 10-percent Lumen Increase sensitivity in the Existing 

Technologies and Emerging Technologies base case scenarios, respectively. Results are 

cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 2008$. In general, the 10 percent lumen increase scenario 

reflects lower NPV than the other shipment scenarios, as it incorporates higher-wattage or samewattage lamp designs. 

Table 11B.39 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, 10% Lumen 

Increase (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 -1.02 -1.85

2 2.56 4.81

3 3.63 6.99

4 6.35 12.30

5 7.65 14.88

Table 11B.40 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen 

Increase (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 -0.84 -1.50

2 1.35 2.50

3 2.01 3.80

4 3.39 6.43

5 4.07 7.75

Table 11B.41 through Table 11B.44 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for 

incandescent reflector lamps under Modified Emerging Technologies sensitivities. Results are 

cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 2008$. In general, the Modified Emerging Technologies 

scenario reflects lower NPV than the other shipment scenarios because it incorporates higherwattage or same-wattage lamp designs. 
11B-32

Table 11B.41 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, Shift, 

R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 0.46 1.04 

2 2.81 5.30 

3 3.87 7.36 

4 5.51 10.51 

5 6.16 11.77 

Table 11B.42 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, Shift, 

BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 -0.09 -0.03 

2 2.06 3.82 

3 3.03 5.69 

4 4.09 7.67 

5 4.74 8.93 

Table 11B.43 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, Rollup, R-CFL Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 0.46 1.04 

2 2.77 5.25 

3 3.80 7.28 

4 5.48 10.48 

5 6.16 11.77 
11B-33

Table 11B.44 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Modified Emerging Technologies, Rollup, BR Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 -0.09 -0.03 

2 2.02 3.77 

3 2.96 5.61 

4 4.06 7.64 

5 4.74 8.93 

Table 11B.45 and Table 11B.46 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for 

incandescent reflector lamps under the Baseline Lifetime sensitivity. Results are cumulative to 

2042 and are shown in 2008$. In general, the Baseline Lifetime scenario reflects lower NPV 

than the other shipment scenarios because the shorter lifetimes necessitate greater lamp 

replacement shipments and, therefore, higher incremental equipment costs. 

Table 11B.45 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Baseline Lifetime 

(2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

4 5.22 10.81

5 4.86 10.13

Table 11B.46 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Baseline 

Lifetime (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

4 1.83 3.78

5 2.53 5.12

Table 11B.47 through and Table 11B.54 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for 

incandescent reflector lamps under all eight possible main shipment scenarios. 
11B-34

Table 11B.47 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 0.45 1.11

2 4.59 8.94

3 6.34 12.50

4 9.06 17.81

5 10.16 20.01

Table 11B.48 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 -0.09 -0.04

2 2.08 3.93

3 3.04 5.84

4 4.20 8.02

5 4.90 9.38

Table 11B.49 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, BR Product 

Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 -0.22 -0.25

2 3.73 7.18

3 5.36 10.49

4 7.49 14.59

5 8.54 16.65
11B-35

Table 11B.50 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 0.45 1.11

2 4.19 8.11

3 5.72 11.22

4 8.79 17.25

5 10.16 20.01

Table 11B.51 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll-up, BR 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 -0.22 -0.25

2 3.34 6.36

3 4.74 9.21

4 7.22 14.03

5 8.54 16.65

Table 11B.52 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, R-CFL 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 0.47 1.07

2 2.89 5.53

3 3.99 7.70

4 5.67 10.98

5 6.34 12.31
11B-36

Table 11B.53 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, BR 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 -0.09 -0.04

2 2.13 4.01

3 3.13 5.98

4 4.23 8.07

5 4.90 9.38

Table 11B.54 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, R-CFL 

Product Substitution (2012-2042) (billion 2008$) 

NPV 

TSL (billion 2008$) 

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3% 

1 0.47 1.07

2 2.84 5.45

3 3.90 7.56

4 5.64 10.93

5 6.34 12.31