Statistical evaluation of the May 14 - September 30, 2002 BaseB1 CMAQ simulation across the OTR

 (plus all of VA and WV)

Integrated wet SO4, NO4, and NH4 deposition (mg/m2) over the entire period

43 NADP-NTN, 29 NYSDEC, and 7 AIRMoN sites (total of 69)

Statistics:

observed average

predicted average

coefficient of determination, R2

normalized mean error

root mean square error

fractional gross error

mean absolute gross error

mean normalized gross error

mean bias

mean normalized bias

mean fractionalized bias

normalized mean bias
obs avg, mg/m2 CMAQ avg, mg/m2 R^2 NME, % RMSE, mg/m2 FE, % MAGE, mg/m2 MNGE, % MB, mg/m2 MNB, %

SO4 1063 946 0.17 34.4 490 36.4 365 36.2 -118 -2.6

NO3 704 367 0.22 48.8 417 62.3 344 45.0 -337 -43.5

NH4 185 117 0.12 48.0 109 56.8 89 46.1 -68 -28.0
MFB, % NMB, % N

-13.2 -11.1 69

-60.9 -47.8 69

-43.9 -36.6 69
observed, mg/m2 CMAQ, mg/m2

NADP-NTN CT15 616.537 600.498

NADP-NTN MA01 1371.51 485.97

NADP-NTN MA08 744.948 416.414

NADP-NTN MA13 860.218 788.84

NADP-NTN MD13 1310.63 487.921

NADP-NTN MD18 1221.85 482.835

NADP-NTN ME00 455.64 395.836

NADP-NTN ME02 327.096 528.773

NADP-NTN ME04 383.944 737.508

NADP-NTN ME08 416.575 555.575

NADP-NTN ME09 478.802 365.339

NADP-NTN ME95 496.139 313.929

NADP-NTN ME96 377.523 426.076

NADP-NTN ME98 293.512 293.362

NADP-NTN NH02 597.637 478.438

NADP-NTN NJ00 1588.02 825.58

NADP-NTN NJ99 1144.38 904.536

NADP-NTN NY08 1096.16 972.812

NADP-NTN NY10 1405.71 1203.76

NADP-NTN NY20 675.31 644.102

NADP-NTN NY22 1023.6 946.659

NADP-NTN NY52 1274.08 1655.26

NADP-NTN NY65 1101.68 892.612

NADP-NTN NY68 1714.47 1119.08

NADP-NTN NY98 939.937 658.557

NADP-NTN NY99 1075.38 1162.11

NADP-NTN PA00 1147.46 1953.7

NADP-NTN PA15 1157.96 1380.3

NADP-NTN PA18 1184.98 800.887

NADP-NTN PA29 1252.9 1420.09

NADP-NTN PA42 1337.18 772.348

NADP-NTN PA72 982.937 836.062

NADP-NTN VA00 1165.69 577.451

NADP-NTN VA13 936.538 1803.95

NADP-NTN VA24 764.019 1318.3

NADP-NTN VA27 543.47 601.514

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 500 1000

predicted (mg/m2)

observed (mg/m2)

Wet SO4 Deposition
NADP-NTN VA28 839.706 2294.33

NADP-NTN VA99 127.912 377.974

NADP-NTN VT01 1500.18 674.216

NADP-NTN VT99 1131.24 1169.72

NADP-NTN WV04 881.041 688.246

NADP-NTN WV05 1369.37 2085.26

NADP-NTN WV18 1302.72 1257.01

NYSDEC LOUD 1114.93 874.474

NYSDEC WEST 2350.43 944.941

NYSDEC ELMI 1311.06 638.655

NYSDEC BUFF 1426.8 1156

NYSDEC WFMT 1010.11 658.557

NYSDEC PISE 834.061 837.969

NYSDEC NICK 982.786 1124.49

NYSDEC CAMP 1260.17 974.302

NYSDEC ROCH 926.214 1594.5

NYSDEC EISE 1009.62 533.442

NYSDEC NIAG 1123.69 1121.32

NYSDEC ESYR 1432.52 1583.02

NYSDEC ALTM 1676.78 1655.26

NYSDEC MTNI 1452.97 954.05

NYSDEC GRAF 1007.9 788.972

NYSDEC WANA 955.298 862.689

NYSDEC BELL 1067.75 633.878

NYSDEC WHPL 1482.08 687.986

NYSDEC NYBG 1982.67 1114.83

AIRMoN DE02 1192.48 508.043

AIRMoN DE99 1064.24 1778.88

AIRMoN MD15 709.491 378.415

AIRMoN NY67 989.109 1466.83

AIRMoN PA15 1724.69 1380.3

AIRMoN VT99 1230.85 1169.72

AIRMoN WV99 1427.23 1479.7
1500 2000 2500

bserved (mg/m2)

4 Deposition
observed, mg/m2 CMAQ, mg/m2

NADP-NTN CT15 616.41 329.643

NADP-NTN MA01 1034.04 247.301

NADP-NTN MA08 647.145 196.926

NADP-NTN MA13 672.407 345.46

NADP-NTN MD13 879.473 203.447

NADP-NTN MD18 833.021 161.289

NADP-NTN ME00 293.558 143.5

NADP-NTN ME02 255.467 229.957

NADP-NTN ME04 287.427 277.246

NADP-NTN ME08 269.06 228.938

NADP-NTN ME09 331.095 147.961

NADP-NTN ME95 278.667 116.316

NADP-NTN ME96 306.667 212.327

NADP-NTN ME98 221.625 171.037

NADP-NTN NH02 406.38 236.927

NADP-NTN NJ00 901.207 331.524

NADP-NTN NJ99 761.904 478.144

NADP-NTN NY08 679.94 380.212

NADP-NTN NY10 1014.82 467.539

NADP-NTN NY20 480.492 290.951

NADP-NTN NY22 745.395 399.97

NADP-NTN NY52 865.968 691.227

NADP-NTN NY65 724.217 324.917

NADP-NTN NY68 928.88 407.007

NADP-NTN NY98 576.865 248.344

NADP-NTN NY99 843.685 484.867

NADP-NTN PA00 725.522 666.886

NADP-NTN PA15 678.711 413.129

NADP-NTN PA18 725.523 259.834

NADP-NTN PA29 834.629 486.534

NADP-NTN PA42 743.831 268.423

NADP-NTN PA72 677.403 364.366

NADP-NTN VA00 742.267 177.957

NADP-NTN VA13 498.501 538.797

NADP-NTN VA24 492.923 411.829

NADP-NTN VA27 375.138 197.391

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

predicted (mg/m2)

observed (mg/m2)

Wet NO3 Deposition
NADP-NTN VA28 540.954 690.901

NADP-NTN VA99 128.077 144.48

NADP-NTN VT01 908.339 286.698

NADP-NTN VT99 771.609 565.688

NADP-NTN WV04 606.015 241.322

NADP-NTN WV05 684.412 598.316

NADP-NTN WV18 697.032 416.471

NYSDEC LOUD 674.565 343.852

NYSDEC WEST 1540.41 394.448

NYSDEC ELMI 849.871 250.962

NYSDEC BUFF 907.623 474.012

NYSDEC WFMT 658.916 248.344

NYSDEC PISE 572.561 365.353

NYSDEC NICK 658.04 474.436

NYSDEC CAMP 813.765 409.293

NYSDEC ROCH 640.185 552.972

NYSDEC EISE 830.627 268.277

NYSDEC NIAG 837.132 488.347

NYSDEC ESYR 964.121 604.027

NYSDEC ALTM 1271.56 691.227

NYSDEC MTNI 1318.05 482.627

NYSDEC GRAF 655.938 348.092

NYSDEC WANA 673.53 369.254

NYSDEC BELL 617.464 246.002

NYSDEC WHPL 1201.05 411.104

NYSDEC NYBG 1495.26 544.791

AIRMoN DE02 535.437 175.629

AIRMoN DE99 548.952 568.644

AIRMoN MD15 454.495 151.874

AIRMoN NY67 632.813 557.536

AIRMoN PA15 978.893 413.128

AIRMoN VT99 796.391 565.688

AIRMoN WV99 777.342 468.404
1200 1400 1600
observed, mg/m2 CMAQ, mg/m2

NADP-NTN CT15 91.1159 99.292

NADP-NTN MA01 210.565 58.3235

NADP-NTN MA08 176.283 56.6608

NADP-NTN MA13 130.223 144.486

NADP-NTN MD13 166.538 69.4428

NADP-NTN MD18 172.133 54.8724

NADP-NTN ME00 105.0481 69.3528

NADP-NTN ME02 68.3317 70.4042

NADP-NTN ME04 90.1099 118.029

NADP-NTN ME08 80.7819 68.7683

NADP-NTN ME09 99.6705 51.5566

NADP-NTN ME95 76.7322 54.6962

NADP-NTN ME96 86.3981 61.1492

NADP-NTN ME98 58.6486 44.0704

NADP-NTN NH02 107.043 57.2125

NADP-NTN NJ00 272.224 88.5312

NADP-NTN NJ99 174.206 120.168

NADP-NTN NY08 194.874 124.85

NADP-NTN NY10 244.926 127.639

NADP-NTN NY20 113.525 77.6276

NADP-NTN NY22 198.28 144.448

NADP-NTN NY52 229.686 203.107

NADP-NTN NY65 150.769 114.149

NADP-NTN NY68 242.524 118.139

NADP-NTN NY98 186.215 75.627

NADP-NTN NY99 161.746 141.135

NADP-NTN PA00 184.346 264.907

NADP-NTN PA15 142.491 110.784

NADP-NTN PA18 131.613 57.7593

NADP-NTN PA29 179.541 136.667

NADP-NTN PA42 162.735 65.7015

NADP-NTN PA72 123.292 82.9668

NADP-NTN VA00 166.065 62.341

NADP-NTN VA13 97.5768 161.466

NADP-NTN VA24 109.126 124.926

NADP-NTN VA27 85.4723 126.778

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 100 200 300

predicted (mg/m2)

observed (mg/m2)

Wet NH4 Deposition
NADP-NTN VA28 148.636 429.05

NADP-NTN VA99 20.8229 42.7268

NADP-NTN VT01 242.045 88.2636

NADP-NTN VT99 244.622 179.911

NADP-NTN WV04 139.201 69.1774

NADP-NTN WV05 97.2369 137.402

NADP-NTN WV18 156.044 97.595

NYSDEC LOUD 208.681 113.594

NYSDEC WEST 427.05 107.404

NYSDEC ELMI 270.792 77.4336

NYSDEC BUFF 339.838 154.273

NYSDEC WFMT 224.478 75.627

NYSDEC PISE 179.817 103.1908

NYSDEC NICK 244.994 144.378

NYSDEC CAMP 264.762 133.806

NYSDEC ROCH 223.276 156.13

NYSDEC EISE 199.408 84.6933

NYSDEC NIAG 267.427 139.156

NYSDEC ESYR 356.593 207.939

NYSDEC ALTM 416.675 203.107

NYSDEC MTNI 245.641 131.521

NYSDEC GRAF 160.93 112.96

NYSDEC WANA 211.085 109.91

NYSDEC BELL 173.892 71.4779

NYSDEC WHPL 253.13 97.1396

NYSDEC NYBG 367.784 186.299

AIRMoN DE02 188.938 61.9566

AIRMoN DE99 232.319 305.686

AIRMoN MD15 112.413 41.5789

AIRMoN NY67 150.983 203.3

AIRMoN PA15 226.411 110.783

AIRMoN VT99 289.272 179.911

AIRMoN WV99 201.346 119.217
400 500