Where does the air pollution inthe OTR come from and whatdo we need to do to fix it?Tad Aburn, DirectorAir and Radiation Management AdministrationPresented at the OTC Annual MeetingJune 9 and 10, 2009Why a Conceptual Model?Driving Policy With ScienceBaltimore Haze CamBad Day – July 9, 2007The first step in developing a newState Implementation Plan (SIP)Maryland-The CanaryNeed a science-based vision ofwhat it will take to further clean upMaryland’s air.Maryland-TheCanaryin the Coal Mine for theOTRGood Day – August 18, 2007yHow much of the problem is local?How much is transported intoMaryland from upwind states?Marylandfromupwindstates?What pollutants? What sources?How aggressive do we need to bewith new local control programs?Who will we need help from?Conclusions from this Presentation“Incoming”ozone levels already violateWe Cannot Attain the New Ozone StandardWithout Significant, Timely Help from EPAIncomingozonelevelsalreadyviolatethe new standardScience tells us that the upwindcontribution to ozone in nonattainmentNonattainment Areas8-Hour Ozone Standardcontributiontoozoneinnonattainmentareas in the Ozone Transport Region(OTR) can cause more than 50% of theproblemWe need to continue to do all we can toreduce local emissions.We need significant help from EPA toi i d ti lrequire aggressive andtimely super-regional emission reduction programsAcross most of the EastPower plants boilers cement kilns andPowerplants,boilers,cementkilnsandmultiple other source sectors that canfurther reduce NOxand VOC emissions.Graphic is courtesy of the U.S. EPA.Progress in Cleaning Maryland’s Air181151152147143160200

(ppb)1-Hour Ozone8-Hour Ozone110 110106103107 107104 ppb)140135137147143137126121120160

1-Hour Ozone1039194104959391 8-Hour Ozone (100801990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*17 1

)Annual Fine Particulate4141424146Daily Fine Particulate1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20076017.115.815.914.515.616.215.91418

n ual PM 2.5 (ug/m

3 )414139354137 i ly PM 2.5 (ug/m

3 )343842102002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

An n2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* Da i3034*2008 data are preliminary.What Have We Learnedfrom All of This?So...Where Does Our Air Pollution Come From?Four Distinct PartsLocal emissions in Cities (nonattainment areas)Reducing local emissions isvery, very, very,importantThree distinct types of transportFourDistinctPartsThreedistincttypesoftransportShort range - City to city“Ground level” transportWashington to Baltimore, Baltimore to Philadelphia,etc.Westerly, Long range (up-over-and-down)“Aloft” transport - 100s of milesGenerally from W or NWSoutherly, Nocturnal Low Level Jet (NLLJ)“Aloft” transport at night !!!100s of milesSW to NE along the AtlanticSWtoNEalongtheAtlanticTwo Significant New FindingsRecent research has identified two new conceptsthat significantly affect:Our understandingof the dailycycle of how ozone forms andbuilds up in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast cities andThe emission reductionprograms needed toprovide for cleang pairThese new areas are:The existence of an“Elevated Reservoir”of high ozonesitting above the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast areas during themorninghours on bad ozone daysyThetransportand build-up of ozone and ozone precursorsatnightThe Elevated Ozone Reservoirbd d i hEverybadozoneday,in themorning hours, a large reservoirof ozone sits above Marylandand the Mid-Atlantic areawaiting to mix down.Ozone levels in the reservoir canOzonelevelsinthereservoircanroutinely reach 60 to 100 ppb.In the morning, ozone levels at thesurface are very low.Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)Beltsville MDAround 10:00 or 11:00, theozone in the reservoir mixesd hf d900012000

ight (ft)Beltsville,MDGoodModerateUnhealthy forSensitive GroupsUnhealthyResidual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ftf110 b900012000

ight (ft)Beltsville,MDGoodModerateUnhealthy forSensitive GroupsUnhealthyResidual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ftf110 bdown to the surface anddegrades air quality.0300060000 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

Heof110ppbOzone-reducedsurface layer<40 ppb0300060000 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

Heof110ppbOzone-reducedsurface layer<40 ppbof110ppbOzone-reducedsurface layer<40 ppbOzone (ppb)Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard UniversityWhat Creates the Reservoir?Ozone created during the day isable to mix upward from thesurface and vice versa.DayAt night the earth cools and a“nocturnal inversion” is createdseveral hundred meters above thesurface.Ozone, created earlier in the day,is trapped above the inversion andNightistrappedabovetheinversionandmoved to the north by nigh-timewinds.Ozone below the inversion dropsNightOzonebelowtheinversiondropsto very low levels.Source: SERC at Carleton CollegePage8Measuring the Elevated ReservoirThe elevated reservoir can be seenl ibHigh Elevation- almost every morning -bylooking at elevated monitors andground-level monitors - over time.HighElevationMonitorsPiney Run, MDM th di t Hill PAA p p a l a c h i a n sHagerstownMethodistHill,PAShenandoah NP, VANear-Sea LevelMonitorsBaltimoreSource: Maryland Department of the EnvironmentTypical Day/Night Ozone CycleBack in 1990’sSame Signal – Philly – 1995Same Signal – MD - 1997Same Signal – Philly - 1997Still Happening in 2000’sSame Signal – Philly 2005Same Signal – MD - 2008Same Signal – Philly - 2008Similar Signal – New HampshireDiurnal Ozone Concentrations 2004-2008Mt. Washington Summit versus Camp Dodge BaseBased on Days with Maximum 8-Hour Averages >=60ppb on the Summit60This chart includes data fromevery hour of days with a max8hr >=75ppb only when theday's data capture = 100% forboth sites.5060

PB)3040

ur Concentration (PMt. WashingtonCamp Dodge1020

Average 1-Ho00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23HourSame Signal – Fine ParticlesJ l 28 2007LIDAR Image a rticlesSatellite ImageJuly28,2007

More p aHazeHazeAerosolsAloftClearInversionBreaks p articlesAloftMix withClear

Less pMixwithLocalPollutantsSource: SSEC at University of Wisconsin-Madison5AM 8AM 11AM 2PMSource: The Smog Blog (UMBC)Page20Who’s Filling the Reservoir?What’s over MD on Tuesdaystarted off in Ohio and NorthCarolina on Monday.Aircraft Data – All Morning Ozone Profiles(1996 – 2004)MD’s pollution soup floatsto New Jersey and NewYork.New York’s pollution floatsto New EnglandP lt t k dPower plants, cars,trucks andother sources are all contributorsto the elevated pollutant reservoir.ill d i h dMedian Ozone in ppbFilledwithozone andozoneprecursors.)Courtesy of Jennifer HainsUniversity of MarylandThe Three Different Types of Transport1997 8-hr ozone exceedance dayshr ozone exceedance days(2003-2007)96 days or appx. 19 days/yearWesterly TransportSource: Maryland Department of the EnvironmentHow Much Comes From Out of State?Prior to the NOx SIP Call (1990s),we measured ozone around110parts per billion(ppb) floatingpartsperbillion(ppb)floatinginto Maryland , primarily from theWest.After the NOxSIP Call, wemeasure ozone around90 ppbfloating into the State from theSouth,West, andNorthwest.Reminder: 2008 8-Hour OzoneStandard is75 ppbStandardis.MDE works in partnership with localuniversities (UMD at College Park, UMBC, andHoward University) to measure and analyzepollution being transported into Maryland.Baltimore: How Much is Transport?Varies with changes inmeteorology but best guess issomething like1997 8-hr ozone exceedance dayshr ozone exceedance days(2003-2007)96 days or appx. 19 days/yearsomethinglike30 to 40% Westerly transport10 to 20% City-to-City“l l” t t“local”transport10 to 20% Night-time,southerly NLLJ transport10 to 20% localLocal controls on localemissions can onlyaddress thislast 10 to 20%.Source: Maryland Department ofthe EnvironmentClassic Mid-Atlantic Ozone WeatherWesterly TransportWesterly Transport - “Up ... Over ... Down”During theheating of theday, pollutantsmix upward.Air pollutants get picked up and carried by theupper level windsPollutants canmix down thesame way theycame upOVERpUPDOWNSO2PMHgNOxVOCNewHampshirePollutionSourcesFingerprinting Westerly TransportWhat Does the Data Tell us About Its Origin?DOES NOTCORRELATEWELL WITH CO*NOT CARS*HIGH OZONEALOFTNOTCARSCORRELATES WITHCORRELATES WELLCORRELATESWITHHIGH “AGED NOX”* IT’S OLD *WITH SO2* PROBABLYPOWER PLANTS *Graphics are courtesy of UMD at College Park.Reducing Westerly Transport55.5%of Units22.3%of Units772292442502522548090250Number of UnitsCumulative Total Units8-Hour Ozone110 110106103107 107104 p p b )140501781911996070150200BY 2011, ABOUT 50TO 70 PERCENTOF THE COALFIRED CAPACITY1061039194104959391 8 -H our O z one (p100503012830405010015077.8% of Units Installedbetween 2003-2007Scheduled Startup UnitsFIREDCAPACITYIN THE EASTWILL BECONTROLLED BYSCRS1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 8602125182313815622285110203050212222351001995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110Phase IMinimal SCR UnitsPhase IILarge Number of SCR Units InstalledMinimalSCRUnitsExpect Minimal NOxReductionsLargeNumberofSCRUnitsInstalledExpect SIGNIFIANT NOxReductionsEspecially after 2003-2004Air Qualityshould decrease dramaticallyData courtesy of TheInstitute of Clean Air Companies(ICAC).Westerly Transport - Lessons Learned?Ozone has been reduceddramatically as super-regionalpower plant NOx controls have beeninstalledAbout 50 to 70 percent of the coalfi d it th E t h dd dfiredcapacity ntheEasthas addedSCR controlsAbout 30 to 50 percent hasnotAbout30to50percenthasadded SCR controlsIs there anyreason to believe thatmore NOx reductions would notlead to lower ozone?City-to-City “Local” TransportSurface winds are typically from the southwest to the northeastSurfacewindsaretypicallyfromthesouthwesttothenortheast.The morning pollution in Washington stays at ground level and floats downwind tobecome part of the afternoon pollution in Baltimore.Pollution from Central/Northern VAֲDCֲBaltimoreֲPhiladelphia and so on.Emissions from cars, area sources and stationary sources all contribute.Southerly Transport at NightTh N t l L L l J t (NLLJ)Winds ~ 1000 Feet Above SurfaceFast-moving, narrow “river” of airtypically around 1000 feet above thefTheNocturnalLowLevelJet(NLLJ)surfaceIn the Mid-Atlantic, typically observedduring the night between Appalachiansand the Atlantic Ocean.Wind speeds can reach 40 mph ormore.Stretches from NC to MD to NJ andfurther up the east coastMDEfurtheruptheeastcoast.Seen during most, Mid-Atlantic summertime air pollution events.Some form of NLLJ on virtuallyallDuring theheating of theday, pollutantsmix upward.Air pollutants get picked up and carried by theupper level windsPollutants canmix down thesame way theycame upOVERDOWNycode orange or red daysRecent findings indicate:Presence of a NLLJ increasedB lti i b 7 bNOxVOCSO2PMHgUPBaltimore maximum ozoneby7ppb.Ozone concentrations of 90 – 100 ppbhave been measured in the NLLJ.Animation is courtesy of The COMET Program <http://www.meted.ucar.edu/>.NewHampshirePollutionSourcesMeasuring the NLLJWind Speed and Wind DirectionBeltsville, MD on September 6Beltsville, MD on September 6 –8, 20078, 200713000

t )35 mph for 8 hours is about 280milesWhat does this graph tell us?- Wind direction-Wind speedSeptember 7th8 PM – 9 AMSeptember 8th7 PM – 8 AMSeptember 7thWinds from thesouthwestat about25-35mphSeptember 8thWinds from thesouthwestat about25-35mph8000

Height (f tWindspeed- Straight up_35001000Nocturnal Inversion up to 1000 ftNLLJNLLJNoon 6 PM Midnight 6 AM Noon 6PM Midnight 6AMSept 6, 2007 Sept 7, 2007 Sept 8, 2007NocturnalInversionupto1000ftSource:MarylandDepartmentof theEnvironment&MADISce: y d ep e o e v o e & SMeasuring Ozone Transport in the NLLJH d U i it l h d 4 d J l 1213 2008 Th 10 30 PMJul 12 | Jul 13, 20082 30 AMHowardUniversitylaunched4ozonesondes onJuly12-13,2008.The10:30PM(Saturday, July 12th) and 2:30 AM(Sunday, July 13th) occurred during aNocturnalLow Level Jet(NLLJ) event, as captured by MDE’s upper-air Radar Wind Profiler.10:30 PM2:30AMNearC d

d -Night E DT)OzoneSpike atCodeRedOzone

Mi d ( ESpikeatNLLJCoreNLLJ(22+ mph for 14+ hours)ÎAir Traveled 300+ miles.13-Jul20082:00PM5:00PM8:00PM11:00PM2:00AM5:00AM8:00AM11:00AM12-Jul2008Time (EDT)How Big is the NLLJ?MM5 M d l RHi h t Wi d S d i R dMM5ModelRun–HighestWindSpeedsinRed9:00 PM 11:00 PM 01:00 AM03:00 AM05:00 AM07:00 AMGraphics are courtesy of UMD at College Park.When Transport Patterns CollideWesterly, local and southerly/NLLJ transport converge on the MidAtlantic area.Sea and bay breezes act as a barrier or wall and funnel ozone andother air pollutants up the Northeast Corridor.Driving Policy With ScienceAi ll ti i li t d!!!Air pollutionis complicated!!!On any given day, Maryland’s ozoneproblem can be blamed on:Local emissionsSo What Have We Learned?Westerly TransportSoutherly transportAll of the aboveTh NOSIP C ll d th i l t lexSIPCallandother regionalcontrolprograms have reduced ozone levelsdramatically over the past 10 years.The regional NOxreduction programs of theof the 1990s really really workedofthe1990sreally,reallyworked.The 1990 Clean Air Act may depend toomuch on local emission reductions.We will need significant additionalnationalC t lM d lorsuper-regional control programs toreduce transportto attain the new ozonestandard.ConceptualModelA Two Part Control StrategyWe must continue tod il laopt aggressivelocalcontrol measures toreduce the localcontributionW ill d i ifiWe willneedsignificanthelp to reduce thetransported ozone andozone precursors in theelevated reservoirLocal Versus Regional ContributionWork to adopt innovative, aggressive localcontrol programs already begun – more later“Incoming”ozone already exceeds the newWork to adopt innovative, aggressive localcontrol programs already begun – more later“Incoming”ozone already exceeds the newVertical Profile of OzoneJune 18, 2006 (3:10 AM EDT)Beltsville, MDddU h lhh lhIncomingozonealreadyexceedsthenewozone standardTo reduce transported ozone in the elevatedreservoir we need helpfrom EPA to lowerIncomingozonealreadyexceedsthenewozone standardTo reduce transported ozone in the elevatedreservoir we need helpfrom EPA to lower900012000

t )GoodModerateUnhealthyfor SensitiveGroupsUnhealthypNOx and VOC emissions from a host ofupwind source categories and upwindsource regionsTh t l b ipNOx and VOC emissions from a host ofupwind source categories and upwindsource regionsTh t l b i6000

Height (f tElevatedReservoir2000 – 6000 ftAbout 83ppbThere are many controlprogramsbeingimplemented in nonattainment areas acrossthe country that are cost-effective, commonsense and proven control techniquesThere are many controlprogramsbeingimplemented in nonattainment areas acrossthe country that are cost-effective, commonsense and proven control techniques030000 15 30 45 60 75 90 105Ozone (ppb)ppat 3amSource: Maryland Department of the Environment & HowardWe need EPA’s help to level the playingfieldSource:MarylandDepartmentoftheEnvironment&HowardUniversity“Leveling the Playing Field”Examples of control programs that needto be implemented across most of theEast to reduce transported ozone in theelevated reservoirCURRENTPLAYINGFIELDThe next phase of NOxand SOxreductions from power plantsIndustrial, Institutional and Commercial(ICI) boilers (NOand SO)(ICI)boilers(NOxandSOx)Cement kilns (NOxand SOx)25 ton per year NOxand VOC RACT(ReasonablyAvailable ControlyTechnology)OTC area source control measures(paints, consumer products, etc.)Mobile so rcesMobilesourcesNumerous other source sectorsGENERALLY WHERETHE PLAYING FIELDSHOULD BE LEVELEDTO REDUCE OZONEIN THE ELEVATEDINTHEELEVATEDRESERVOIROur Schedule2016Likely attainment date for many OTCstatesSummers 2013, 2014 and 2015Clean air recorded bymonitorsMay 2013Latest date for new state, regional andti l t l t bnationalcontrolprogramstobecomeeffective and generate reductions2010 and 2011State, regional and national rules fullyadoptedQuestions?Tad Aburn DirectorTadAburn,Directorgaburn@mde.state.md.usMaryland Department of the EnvironmentAir & Radiation Management Administration1800 Washington Boulevard | Baltimore, MD 21230410-537-3000 | TTY Users: 1-800-735-2258www.mde.state.md.usMartin O’Malley,Governor| Anthony G. Brown,Lt. Governor| Shari T. Wilson,Secretary