1

Highlights of the Negotiated Cattle Delivery Period Breakout 

Analysis Regarding Confidentiality

April 2017

As requested by the industry members at the February 2017 Cattle and Beef Stakeholder 

Meeting, AMS conducted an analysis of the 0-14 and 15-30 day delivery periods in the 

negotiated cattle market. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether these two delivery 

periods could be reported separately and still meet the LMR confidentiality guidelines in order to 

be published, and evaluate the price differences between the two delivery periods. 

AMS reviewed the 5-Area region (LM_CT150) data for 2016 to determine if the negotiated 15-

30 day delivery period data would pass the 3-70-20 confidentiality guidelines on a weekly basis. 

AMS also examined the last 12 weeks of 2015, since the 3-70-20 guidelines are based on 60 

business days.

A total of six companies purchased cattle on a negotiated basis within the 15-30 day delivery 

period during 2016. Five companies were the most that traded in any given week. Two major 

packers had purchased roughly 93% of the 15-30 day volume in 2016, and were the only 

companies buying cattle for this delivery period for 39 of the 64 weeks of data analyzed.

AMS has been reporting the volume of trade in the 0-14 and 15-30 day delivery categories on the 

weekly national report (LM_CT154) since 2010. Chart B below shows the reported volume of

the 15-30 day category was pretty insignificant until 2014. Since then, there has been increased 

trading in this category; however, as shown below, the reported volume has been inconsistent 

and seasonal in nature. At the same time, since only two of the major packers dominated the 

volume of the 15-30 day negotiated purchases reported during 2016, this category passed the 3-

70-20 confidentiality guideline only 12 out of 52 weeks.

Since AMS would not have been able to publish price and volume information on the negotiated 

15-30 day delivery period for 40 weeks of the year, there would have been 443,645 less 

negotiated cattle published in the 5-Area during 2016. This means that 10% of the annual 

reported negotiated number in the 5-Area would have been suppressed (In 2016, the total 

negotiated head count reported in the 5-Area was 4,576,913). This is significant given the 

industry’s concerns about the decline in the reported quantity of negotiated cattle (see Chart C

below). 

AMS was able to provide price comparison data for only the 12 weeks in 2016 weeks that the 

15-30 day delivery period passed confidentiality. As shown in Chart A below, the price 

differences between the 0-14 and 15-30 day periods varied week to week; however, the average 

difference for the 12 weeks studied were $0.81/cwt on a live basis and $1.46/cwt on a dressed 

basis (see Chart A).
2

Chart A 

Week Ending

0-14/15-30 

LIVE FOB Price 

Spread

0-14/15-30 

DRESSED 

DELIVERD Price 

Spread

7/11/2016 ($0.54) $0.27

7/18/2016 $0.37 ($1.84)

7/25/2016 $1.21 $4.39

8/1/2016 ($0.20) $1.14

8/8/2016 $1.30 $1.24

8/15/2016 $2.03 $2.93

8/29/2016 $1.61 $2.52

9/5/2016 $1.42 $3.10

9/12/2016 ($0.12) $1.80

9/19/2016 $0.27 ($0.07)

9/26/2016 $1.32 $1.74

10/3/2016 $1.05 $0.30

Average $0.81 $1.46
3

Chart B

Chart C

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Feb 2017

Cash 55.8% 52.0% 49.8% 45.3% 43.2% 42.4% 36.8% 27.8% 24.1% 24.0% 21.3% 26.3% 27.9%

Formula 31.9% 33.3% 35.9% 38.1% 42.3% 42.2% 46.5% 56.2% 61.8% 58.7% 58.8% 59.4% 57.6%

Forward Contract 4.6% 7.1% 6.8% 10.4% 8.1% 9.9% 10.9% 10.0% 8.6% 13.7% 16.7% 11.2% 12.1%

Negotiated Grid 7.7% 7.7% 7.5% 6.3% 6.4% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 5.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.1% 2.4%

5-AREA