FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

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# UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) continue to be the most dynamic growth sector within the aviation industry. Once enabled, commercial UA S will have the potential to be a significant component of the national airspace system.

Integration of Civil UAS in the National Airspace System-Roadmap

Unlike the manned aircraft industry, the UAS community does not have a set of standardized design specifications for basic UAS design that ensures safe and reliable operation in typical civilian service applications. Ultimat ely, the pace of integration will be determined by the ability of industry, the user community, and the FAA to overcome technical, regulatory, and operational challenges.

The purpose of the Integration of Civil Unm anned Aircraft Systems in the National Airspace System Roadmap is to outline, within a broad timeline, the tasks and c onsiderations needed to enable UAS integration in to the NAS for the planning purposes of the broader UAS community. The Roadmap also aligns proposed Agency acti ons with the Congressional mandate in the

2012 FAA Reauthorization.

The five-year Roadmap will be updated annually and is intended to guide aviation stakeholders in understanding operational g oals and aviation safety and air traffic challenges when considering future investments.

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Comprehensive Plan

The UAS Comprehensive Plan details work that has been acco mplished, along with future efforts needed to achieve safe integration of UAS into the National Airspace System (NAS). The perspectives and information available from t hese individual activities create a framework and reveal an evolving capability for the integration of UAS into the NAS.

The UAS Comprehensive Plan sets the overarching, inter agency goals, objectives, and approach to integrating UAS into the NAS. Each partner agency will work to achieve these national goals and may develop agen cy-specific plans that are aligned to the national goals and objectives.

Unmanned Aircraft System Test Site Program

On February 14, 2012, Congres s mandated the FAA to develop a test site program. These test sites will enable the development of a body of data and operational experiences to safely operate and integrate these ai rcraft into the NAS.

The overall purpose of this test site prog ram is to develop a body of data along with operational expertise to enable the safe operation of these aircraft in the NAS. FAA received 25 applications from 24 states. The following map summarizes the locations of the six testFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

64 sites that were awarded on Dece mber 30, 2013. The first test si te should be op erational by July 2014 and the test sites will continue to operate until at l east February 2017.

UAS Spending Forecast

Teal Group's 2013 World Unm anned Aerial Vehicle Systems annua l sector study forecasts

U.S. and international Unmanned Aircraft market s. Teal Group creates a market profile along with a forecast for military and civil market s for both the U.S. and outside the U.S. As summarized in the chart below, Teal Group fore casts significant spending growth. Total procurement and R&D is expected to increase from $5.2 billion to $11.6 billion annually over the next decade. Teal Group’s t en year forecast estimates to tal UAS spending worldwide at $89.5 Billion.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

65 UAS Small Commercial Forecast

Once the regulatory structure, operation requirements, and industry standards have been established, the commercial UAS markets will de velop. Relatively inexpensive UAS systems under 55 pounds are economically viable for a commercial standpoint, and we expect that

market demand for UAS will occur within the constraints of the regulatory and airspace requirements.

Once able to legally operate, the FAA estimates roughly 7, 500 commercial small UAS will be operating at the end of five years. This forecast is highly uncertain and is dependent on the regulatory structure finally adopt ed, and the technology and the cost structure of the industry as it evolves. The safe and efficient integrat ion of UAS into the airspace has the potential for

broad benefits for virtua lly all Americans. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023$Billions 

## TEAL UAS Spending Forecast

Total R&D and Procurement