Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division (www.ams.usda.gov/services/market-research/aad) Lamb Markets Overview –October 2018

PRODUCTION: Commercial lamb and mutton production increased 11 percent 

in August, to 13.4 million pounds, 5 percent over the August 2017 level. 

Commercial sheep and lamb slaughter in August totaled 204,500 head, a 14 

percent increase for the month and 5 percent over 2017. The average sheep 

and lamb live weight declined 4 pounds to 131, one pound under August 2017. 

The average dressed lamb carcass weight, at 68 pounds, was down 2 pounds

from July but was one pound over August 2017. Stocks of lamb and mutton in 

cold storage in August at 39.7 million pounds, was 6 percent below the July

level but 23 percent over stocks in August 2017. 

GRADING: The preliminary volume of lambs graded Choice and Prime by the 

USDA in September declined 13 percent from August but was up 3 percent 

over 2017. The share of lambs qualifying for the Choice grade declined one 

percent to 90 percent, led by a sharp rise in Northwestern lambs grading Prime

despite continued prevailing poor to very poor range conditions. Overall, lamb 

yields in September began to shift slightly to more finished lambs with a 2 

percent drop in YG 2 shifting mostly to YG 3. The decline in leaner lambs was 

most pronounced in the Rocky Mountain region with a 4 percent decline in YG 

1 and 2 lambs shifting to YG 3 with an uptick in YG 5. Lambs in the Ohio Valley 

saw a 6 percent rise in YG 2 and in YG 3 as pasture conditions improve from 

fair to good. Lambs in the Upper Midwest saw mixed grading with an increase 

in leaner lambs and a rise in more finished lambs. The number of lambs 

offered for grading in the Ohio Valley continue to decline.

 

Lamb Markets Overview

A monthly publication of the USDA AMS Livestock and Poultry Program, Agricultural Analytics Division October 2018

10

11

12

13

14

15

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

millions of pounds

Commercial Lamb/Mutton Production

2018 2017 2016

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

millions of pounds

Lamb in Cold Storage 2018 2017 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

YG1 YG2 YG3 YG4 YG5

Choice Lamb by Yield Grade % - September 2018

18-Sep 18-Aug 17-Sep

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

YG1 YG2 YG3 YG4 YG5

Regional Choice Lamb by Yield Grade - September 2018

Northwest Rocky Mntn Upper Midwest Ohio Valley
Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division (www.ams.usda.gov/services/market-research/aad) Lamb Markets Overview –October 2018

LIVE MARKETS: The volume of slaughter lambs trading on a direct negotiated 

basis in September declined 22 percent from August, 43 percent below 

September 2017. Prices declined through the month and ended down 3 

percent (from $144.69 to $139.83 per cwt.), 15 percent below the level 

producers realized in September 2017. In auction trading, the average price 

for traditional Choice & Prime 2-3, 90-150 lbs. slaughter lambs at Sioux Falls, 

SD, declined one percent (from $130.70 to $128.90 per cwt), 10 percent below 

2017. In San Angelo, TX, the average price of Choice and Prime 2-3 wooled 

and shorn non-traditional slaughter lambs decreased 10 percent (from 

$128.32 to $115.36 per cwt.) for the month, down 14 percent from last year. 

At the New Holland, PA, sale, the average price for Choice and Prime 2-3 

wooled and shorn non-traditional slaughter lambs in September declined 7

percent (from $161.82 to $150.79 per cwt.), 9 percent below the September

2017 monthly average.

LAMB IMPORTS: The overall volume of fresh and frozen imported lamb 

carcasses and cuts declined as rapidly in August as they had risen in July, down 

25 percent on the month and 9 percent under August 2017. Imports of both 

fresh and of frozen lamb were down with fresh down 17 percent and frozen 

down 30 percent for the month. The balance between fresh and frozen shifted 

4 percentage points in favor of fresh (43/57 percent). Australia led all source 

nations with 68 percent of lamb imports but down 30 percent from the volume 

they shipped in July. Imports from Iceland were reported for the first time in 

2018, in the form of fresh legs. Chilean imports rose sharply in August, 

mirroring a similar pattern in 2017, led by shipments of frozen half and whole 

carcasses with a few frozen legs. 

Imports of whole and half lamb carcasses posted the largest percentage gain 

in August, up 16 percent from July, virtually all in frozen form, and representing

a 20 percent decrease from imported volume in 2017. Leg of lamb imports

declined from July, dropping by half of July levels and accounting for 4 percent 

of all lamb imports. Despite the decline, imported leg volumes was 9 percent 

over 2017. Shoulder cuts, fresh and frozen, imported in August had a one 

percent increase in import share despite a 20 percent decline in volume for 

the month, 13 percent below 2017. Import volume of loin cuts fell 19 percent 

for the month, 12 percent under 2017. The volume of imported boneless lamb 

meat declined 30 percent, led by a 35 percent decline in frozen product and 

accounting for 31 percent of imports, the largest category of imported lamb. 

Imports of other bone-in lamb cuts, not identified, were down 26 percent in 

August, 4 percent over 2017 and accounting for 30 percent of all lamb cuts 

imported in August. 

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

dollars per cwt

Negotiated Direct Slaughter Lambs (CH/PR wooled/shorn)

2018 2017 2016

115

125

135

145

155

165

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

dollars per cwt

San Angelo Auction Slaughter Lambs (CH/PR wooled/shorn)

2018 2017 2016

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

millions of pounds

Imported Lamb (fresh and frozen)

2018 2017 2016
Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division (www.ams.usda.gov/services/market-research/aad) Lamb Markets Overview –October 2018

DOMESTIC MEAT TRADE: The volume of trading of Choice and Prime, 1-4 lamb 

carcasses in September declined 26 percent from August and decreasing 32 

percent from last year’s level. The gross lamb carcass cutout increased one

percent (from $3.76 to $3.78 per pound), 7 percent below September 2017. 

The volume of negotiated wholesale trading of fresh and frozen domestic 

boxed lamb cuts in September declined 27 percent for the month, down 33 

percent from last year. Negotiated trading of fresh cuts declined 27 percent in 

volume and accounted for 85 percent of total sales. The volume of frozen cut 

trading decreased 33 percent for the month and accounted for 15 percent. 

In September, traded volume for most lamb cuts was down sharply when 

compared to the relatively active August movement. The volume of wholesale 

sales of fresh trotter-off legs retreated 19 percent with a 2 percent decline in 

price (from $3.70 to $3.64 per pound). This volume was 31 percent below last 

year’s level and the average price was down 6 percent. Sales of medium 8-rib 

fresh racks declined sharply, down 44 percent for the month and 23 percent 

below last year. The average price rose 4 percent (from $8.27 to $8.60 per 

pound); 2 percent below last year. The volume of trimmed 4x4 loins trading 

decreased 26 percent and the average price declined 3 percent (from $5.54 to 

$5.37 per pound), 11 percent under last year. Foreshank prices were down 4 

percent (from $4.15 to $4.00 per pound), down 6 percent from last year. Trade 

volume was unchanged for the month but was 30 percent below last year’s 

trading. Square-cut shoulder prices increased 3 percent drop in price (from 

$2.79 to $2.89 per pound) but sales volume dropped 32 percent below the 

prior month’s movement, 52 percent behind 2017. Trading of ground lamb 

(80/20) declined 26 percent, down 41 percent from 2017, while the average 

price was unchanged at $5.69 per pound, one percent below September 2017. 

IMPORTED MEAT TRADE: The overall volume of negotiated sales imported 

boxed lamb cuts was unchanged in September but was 6 percent below 2017. 

Sales of fresh product were down 7 percent for the month while frozen sales 

saw a 4 percent increase as stocks are being staged for the coming holiday 

demand period. Imports accounted for 71 percent of all boxed lamb cut sales 

in September, up 7 percent in share from August. 

In September, the overall volume of sales of fresh Australian boxed lamb cuts 

increased one percent. Fresh leg cuts and foreshanks saw an increase in sales 

volume of 49 and 41 percent, respectively while loin cut sales were up 2 

percent. Sales volume of rack and shoulder cuts each declined 3 percent 

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

millions of pounds

Fresh Domestic Boxed Lamb Cut Movement

2018 2017

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

cutout dollars per pound

head in thousands

Lamb Carcass Sales vs. Lamb Cutout (CH & PR, 1-4)

2018 hd 2017 hd 2018$ 2017$

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

dollars per pound

pounds in thousands

Leg, Boneless, Tied (234) volume v. price 2018 2017 2018$ 2017$
Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division (www.ams.usda.gov/services/market-research/aad) Lamb Markets Overview –October 2018

during the month. Average prices 

for fresh cuts rose between 3 and 

5 percent during the month with 

racks seeing the most advance. 

Only foreshanks saw a price 

decline, down one percent. 

Sales of frozen Australian cuts in 

September declined one percent 

in volume from a very active 

August pace. Sales volume of 

should cuts recovered most of last 

month’s decline, rising 32 percent 

for the month. Sales of all 

remaining frozen Australian lamb 

cuts declined during the month with leg volume down 7 percent, racks down 

11 percent and foreshanks falling to 59 percent of last month’s sales volume. 

Average monthly prices for frozen imported lamb cuts were mixed with rack 

and shank price up while leg and should cut prices were mostly lower with leg 

prices up one percent while prices for all other frozen cuts declined between 

one and 3 percent. As with fresh, frozen foreshanks saw the most decline in 

price. The volume of sales of frozen rack cuts from New Zealand in September

declined 14 percent while the average price rose one percent for the month. 

RETAIL MARKETING: Supermarket feature activity for lamb cuts in September, 

both domestic and imported, fresh and frozen, was down 8 percent from the 

pace of August featuring but was up 41 percent over the level of retail 

promotions in September 2017. Featuring of shoulder cuts, particularly blade 

chops, increased and accounted for 45 percent of total ad share. The average 

ad price rose 2 percent for blade chops and 12 percent for round bone chops. 

Loin chops were less actively promoted in September but still claimed the 

second largest ad share while the average ad price declined 2 percent. Retail 

feature activity for leg cuts tapered off during the month as they await their 

turn during the upcoming Nov-Dec holiday season. Boneless legs were most 

commonly featured. Retail feature activity for ground lamb and stew meat 

held steady, enough to claim a distant third in ad share. Average ad price rose 

7 percent. Featuring of lamb shanks nearly doubled in activity while the 

average ad price rose 8 percent. Racks remained quiet in supermarket ads but 

that is expected to change starting in October if past trends are any indication. 

Sep 2018 28.6%

Sep 2018 71.4%

Aug 2018 35.7%

Aug 2018 64.3%

Sep 2017 32.3%

Sep 2017 67.7%

domestic

imported

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

Sept. Negotiated Sales of Imported Lamb Domestic vs. Imported Boxed Lamb Sales - share of fresh/frozen product sold)

(change in primal price and sales volume)

Fresh price lbs. price lbs.

racks 105 97 -- --

loins 103 102 -- --

legs 103 149 -- --

shoulders 103 97 -- --

foreshanks 99 141 -- --

Frozen

racks 99 89 101 86

legs 101 93 -- --

shoulders 99 132 -- --

foreshanks 97 41 -- --

Australia New Zealand

percent change

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.8

6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

feature activity (1,000's)

dollars per pound

Retail Featuring - Shoulder Blade Chops

18 activity 17 activity 18$ 17$

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

feature activity (1,000's)

dollars per pound

Retail Featuring - Ground Lamb 80/20

18 activity 17 activity 18$ 17$
Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division (www.ams.usda.gov/services/market-research/aad) Lamb Markets Overview –October 2018

leg 6%

loin 34%

rack 2%

shoulder

45%

breast 0.5%

grnd/stew 9%

shank 4%

September Retail Feature Share

leg 15%

loin 40%

rack 3%

shoulder

35% breast 0.2%

grnd/stew 5%

shank 2%

August Retail Feature Share

PRODUCTION: 1/ Aug 18 Jul 18 change DIRECT SLAUGHTER LAMB: Sep 18 Aug 18 change

Sheep Meat Production (lbs.)................... 13,400,000 12,100,000 111 CH/PR, wooled/shorn (head).............................. 11,400 14,600 78

Commercial Sheep Slaughter (head)......... 204,500 178,900 114 price ($/cwt)................... 139.83 144.69 97

Fed. Insp. Lamb Slaughter (head)............... 163,300 148,800 110 AUCTION SLAUGHTER LAMB:

Live Sheep Weight (lbs.).............................. 131 135 97 Sioux Falls, CH/PR, 2/3, 90-150 lb. (head)...... 4,248 6,229 68

Dressed Carcass Lamb Weight (lbs.)......... 68 70 97 price ($/cwt)................... 128.90 130.70 99

New Holland, CH/PR, 2/3, 90-150 lb. ($/cwt) 150.79 161.82 93

COLD STORAGE: San Angelo, CH/PR, 2/3, 90-150 lb.

Lamb/Mutton in Storage (lbs.).................. 39,709,000 42,129,000 94 Shorn price ($/cwt)................... 115.36 128.32 90

Wooled price ($/cwt)................... 115.36 128.32 90

IMPORTS:

Total Fresh/Chilled (lbs.)........................... 6,231,579 7,514,227 83 LAMB CARCASS:

Total Frozen (lbs.)............................................. 8,216,178 11,706,532 70 National Lamb Carcass Sales (head)............... 9,443 12,823 74

Total (lbs.).........................................................14,447,757 19,220,759 75 Lamb Carcass Gross Cutout ($ per pound)...... 3.78 3.76 101

LAMB GRADED: Sep 18 Aug 18 change BOXED LAMB CUTS:

Choice (head)................................................ 72,399 84,174 86 Domestic Fresh Boxed Lamb Sales (lbs.)......... 3,625,687 4,948,460 73

Prime (head)................................................... 7,966 7,997 100 Imported Fresh Boxed Lamb Sales (lbs.)............ 3,494,395 3,750,823 93

Imported Frozen Boxed Lamb Sales (lbs.)......... 7,150,649 6,883,601 104

1/ - meat production, commercial slaughter, and live weight includes sheep and lamb; Fed. Insp' lamb slaughter and dressed weight are young lambs only. 

Quick Overview
Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division (www.ams.usda.gov/services/market-research/aad) Lamb Markets Overview –October 2018

Pasture and Range Condition: In September, despite improving pasture and range conditions 

on average over much of the nation, conditions across the key lamb grazing regions of the 

country continued to see deterioration moving into October. During the month, pastures rated 

as “good” accounted for 40 percent of lamb grazing regions, down 3 percent from August, 

despite improving conditions in the Ohio Valley and Upper Midwest, specifically in Pennsylvania 

and Wisconsin. Lamb pastures rated as “good” continue describe most conditions with 40 

percent. Lamb range conditions described as “poor” increased 20 percent and accounted for 

16 percent of pastures. The Northwest saw the largest percentage of pastures rated as “very 

poor”, led by Oregon and Northern California.

(derived from the Weekly NASS Crop Progress reports issued April to November)

Regional Consists - Ohio Valley (MI, NY, OH, PA); Upper Midwest (IA, MN, WI); Rocky Mountain (CO, ID, MT, SD, UT, 

WY); Northwest (CA, OR, WA). Ratings based on percentages described as excellent, good, fair, poor, and very poor. 

Lamb Pelts/Wool: In September, the average estimated per pelt credit returned to producers 

declined for most unshorn lamb pelts with damaged pelts unchanged. Credits for shorn pelts 

were mixed with the average credit for Standard and better pelts lower for the month while 

lower quality pelts saw an increased average credit price. The average monthly consist in 

September held at 53/47 percent in favor of unshorn lamb pelts. 

Trading of domestic wool in September, both clean and greasy, went untested as trading is 

typically very limited as the market moves into the Autumn months. 

August

August

August

August

August

September

September

September

September

September

Northwest

Rocky Mountain

Upper Midwest

Ohio Valley

National

% 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Range Condition - Good

September

September

September

September

September

August

August

August

August

August

Northwest

Rocky Mountain

Upper Midwest

Ohio Valley

National

% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Range Condition - Very Poor

September Avg Lamb Pelt Credit Prices

credit change credit change

Supreme 2.50 -0.35 2.50 -0.63

Premium 0.38 -0.23 0.38 -0.15

Standard -0.75 -0.75 -1.03 -0.23

Fair -0.75 -0.60 -1.41 0.22

Mixed -1.00 -0.60 -2.03 0.34

Damaged -1.38 0.00 -2.13 0.25

Consist % 53% 47%

Unshorn Shorn