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Agricultural 

Marketing 

Service

Feb 2024

This paper is an update of the summary of: The Impact of Brazil’s Infrastructure and Transportation 

Costs on U.S. Soybean Market Share: An Updated Analysis From 1992-2019, by Delmy L. Salin and Agapi 

Somwaru, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. The full paper is available at 

https://dx.doi.org/10.9752/TS290.11-2020.

WHAT IS THE ISSUE?

Since 2013, Brazil’s successes in reducing its transportation and production costs, and increasing its planted area have 

allowed the country to displace the United States as the world’s top soybean exporter. Brazil’s ongoing efforts to maximize 

its competitiveness complicate the ability to forecast future U.S. market share, which has fallen from 66 to 38 percent 

between 1992 and 2022. Higher productivity and a weak currency also worked to Brazil’s advantage. 

As a result of a comprehensive infrastructure improvement plan between the Brazilian Government and the private sector 

begun in 2007, Brazil’s export-shipping capacity through its northern and southern ports has expanded by more than 80 

percent (Soybean Transportation Guide: Brazil 2014-2022). 

To consider the impact of Brazil’s ongoing advances, this study attempted to estimate how much the U.S. world soybean 

market share could further decline if Brazil were to become even more competitive while U.S. farm-to-port transportation 

infrastructure did not significantly improve.

REPORT SUMMARY

UPDATE ON The Impact of Brazil’s Infrastructure and 

Transportation Costs on U.S. Soybean Market Share: An 

Updated Analysis from 1992-2022 (Summary)

Delmy L. Salin
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HOW WAS THE STUDY CONDUCTED?

This report follows up on the authors’ 2020 report, The Impact of Brazil’s Infrastructure and Transportation Costs on 

U.S. Soybean Market Share: An Updated Analysis from 1992-2019. The updated data and analysis take into account 

the new transportation routes that have emerged in Brazil, as well as possible future infrastructure developments. 

Using a dynamic econometric model and multivariate sensitivity analysis, the study estimates how global soybeanexport market shares would change under two hypothetical scenarios in which Brazil’s infrastructure is extensively 

improved beyond the current level. The hypothetical infrastructure improvement reduces Brazil’s freight rate by 

$18 per metric ton (mt) in the first scenario and $28/mt in the second scenario. Due to data availability, the base 

estimated model uses ocean freight rates (USDA-AMS) and trade data (USDA-FAS-PSD) for the period between 1992 

and 2022 marketing years.1

WHAT DID THE STUDY FIND?

As reflected by real-world events, this update demonstrates that despite adverse trade policy interventions in the 

world soybean market—like China’s retaliatory tariffs imposed in 2018—the United States has largely maintained its 

market share (Gale et al., 2019; Adjemian et al., 2021; Baryshpolets et al., 2022; Tortajada and Zhang, 2022). Although 

the adverse trade policies might have altered the world soybean production and trade structure, U.S. soybean 

exporters have attempted to diversify their markets (e.g., expanding into biodiesel) and responded efficiently.

However, despite this apparent U.S. resilience, the study’s hypothetical scenarios suggest the world soybean market 

may be more easily disrupted than it appears. The results of the hypothetical scenarios suggest that, from 2021 to 

2022, the U.S. world market share would have declined an additional 5-10 percentage points, if U.S. farm-to-port 

transportation infrastructure did not significantly improve to keep pace with Brazilian advances (tables 1, 2, and 3).

Under a scenario that hypothetically reduced Brazil’s freight-rate by $28/mt, Brazil’s global export market share in 

2022 would have risen from 51 percent to 68 percent (17 percentage points)—mainly because of Brazil’s infrastructure 

improvements. Under the same scenario, the U.S. world market share in 2022 would have declined from 38 percent 

to 28 percent (10 percentage points). A 1-percent decline in the U.S. share of the world soybean market would have 

amounted to just over three-quarters of $1 billion in lost export sales—based on a world soybean trade volume of 170 

million metric tons and the December 2023 price of soybeans.

Further research is needed to understand the economic and infrastructure-based factors that determine soybean 

movements from farms to markets to export ports. To begin to flesh out this understanding, data and analysis are 

needed on how cash prices interact with future prices; how storage costs interact with transportation costs; and 

how U.S. freight rates for truck, barge, rail, and ocean interact with foreign competitors. Further research should 

also address how U.S. agricultural exports would respond to improved lock and dam maintenance in the inland 

waterway system; expanded export capacity in the Pacific Northwest; improved rural bridges that connect farms 

with the original point of sale; and an enhanced intermodal system, with expanded, nationwide use of containerized 

shipments. 

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 2022 is the 2021/22 soybean marketing year. The soybean marketing year runs from September 2021-August 2022 in the United 

States; and from October 2021-September 2022 for Brazil and Argentina.
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Actual market shares Brazil market shares, 

sensitivity analysis1

Year United States 

(%)

Brazil 

(%)

Argentina 

(%)

Other*

(%)

Scenario 1 

(%)

Scenario 2 

(%)

1992 66.2 13.8 11.4 8.5 16.2 20.1

1993 71.6 13.8 7.5 7.0 16.0 20.6

1994 57.7 19.6 10.9 11.8 22.9 28.5

1995 71.3 11.1 8.1 9.5 13.0 16.2

1996 73.0 10.9 6.6 9.4 12.7 15.9

1997 66.3 23.2 2.1 8.5 26.8 33.6

1998 60.5 22.3 7.2 10.0 25.9 32.5

1999 57.7 23.5 8.1 10.6 27.3 34.1

2000 58.1 24.3 9.0 8.6 28.1 35.3

2001 50.5 28.8 13.6 7.1 33.6 42.5

2002 54.9 27.5 11.3 6.3 32.3 40.0

2003 46.5 32.1 14.1 7.3 37.7 47.2

2004 43.1 36.5 12.1 8.3 42.7 53.2

2005 46.1 31.1 14.8 8.1 36.2 46.0

2006 40.2 40.7 11.4 7.7 48.0 56.5

2007 42.9 33.1 13.5 10.5 38.8 47.6

2008 40.1 32.2 17.6 10.1 38.0 46.4

2009 45.4 39.1 7.3 8.2 45.9 55.4

2010 44.3 31.0 14.2 10.5 36.4 44.7

2011 44.8 32.8 10.1 12.3 38.4 46.7

2012 40.5 39.5 8.0 12.0 46.4 55.9

2013 36.0 41.7 7.7 14.6 48.9 59.3

2014 39.5 41.5 7.0 12.0 48.8 59.2

2015 39.7 40.0 8.4 12.0 47.1 57.4

2016 39.8 40.9 7.5 11.8 48.2 59.8

2017 39.9 42.7 4.8 12.6 50.2 61.6

2018 37.9 49.6 1.4 11.1 58.5 67.8

2019 32.0 50.2 6.1 11.7 58.6 67.9

2020 27.6 55.6 6.0 10.8 64.9 72.6

2021 37.3 49.4 3.1 10.1 57.7 67.6

2022 38.0 51.3 1.9 8.9 58.9 68.2

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Scenario 1: This scenario assumes the completion of the paved highway BR-163, connecting Sorriso, Mato Grosso (MT) to 

Miritituba, Pará (PA). It also assumes completion of the North-South (EF-151) Railroad (FNS) linking the northeastern port of ItaquíSâo Luis, Maranhão, and the southern port of Santos, São Paulo. In this case, transportation costs will likely be reduced by $18/

metric ton.

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Scenario 2: Assumes that BR-163, North-South (EF-151) Railroad (FNS), and Ferrogrão Railroad (EF-170), connecting Sorriso to 

Miritituba, are built. The scenario also assumes that the southern ports of Santos, Paranaguá, Rio Grande, and Sao Francisco do 

Sul have modernized their facilities to compete for cargo with the Northern Arc ports. In this case, transportation costs will likely 

decline by $28/metric ton.

*

Other competing countries include Paraguay and Canada.

Sources: Columns 1 through 5, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) Database, 2022, while 

Year in terms of marketing year. Columns 6 and 7— sensitivity analysis results were calculated by USDA, Agricultural Marketing 

Service, and Economic Consulting.

Table 1. Market shares data: actual and for Brazil's sensitivity analysis.1
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Table 2. Scenario 1: New market shares for conducting sensitivity analysis1

Year United States (%) Brazil (%) Argentina (%) Other2 (%)

1992 64.5 16.2 11.1 8.3

1993 70.1 16.0 7.2 6.7

1994 55.4 22.9 10.5 11.3

1995 70.2 13.0 7.7 9.1

1996 71.9 12.7 6.4 9.0

1997 63.1 26.8 2.0 8.0

1998 57.7 25.9 6.8 9.6

1999 54.9 27.3 7.7 10.1

2000 55.2 28.1 8.6 8.2

2001 49.3 33.6 10.7 6.3

2002 51.9 32.3 10.1 5.7

2003 45.9 37.7 9.8 6.6

2004 42.2 42.7 8.4 6.7

2005 44.8 36.2 12.4 6.6

2006 35.3 48.0 9.9 6.8

2007 40.4 38.8 11.6 9.1

2008 38.0 38.0 15.3 8.8

2009 40.7 45.9 6.2 7.1

2010 41.8 36.4 12.7 9.1

2011 43.9 38.4 9.8 7.8

2012 36.3 46.4 6.9 10.4

2013 32.2 48.9 6.5 12.4

2014 35.4 48.8 5.8 10.0

2015 35.6 47.1 7.4 10.0

2016 35.7 48.2 6.3 9.9

2017 35.8 50.2 4.0 10.0

2018 32.1 58.5 1.1 8.3

2019 28.2 58.6 4.5 8.7

2020 23.0 64.9 4.4 7.8

2021 32.5 57.7 2.3 7.5

2022 33.3 58.9 1.4 6.5

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Scenario 1: This scenario assumes the completion of the paved highway BR-163, connecting Sorriso, Mato Grosso (MT) to 

Miritituba, Pará (PA). The scenario also assumes completion of the North-South (EF-151) Railroad (FNS) linking the northeastern 

port of Itaquí-Sâo Luis, Maranhão, and the southern port of Santos, São Paulo. In this case, transportation costs will likely reduce 

by $18/metric ton.

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Other competing countries include Paraguay and Canada.

Source: Sensitivity analysis results were calculated by USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, and Economic Consulting.
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Table 3. Scenario 2: New market shares for conducting sensitivity analysis1

Year United States (%) Brazil (%) Argentina (%) Other2 (%)

1992 60.8 20.1 10.9 8.1

1993 67.2 20.6 6.0 6.2

1994 52.9 28.5 8.4 10.2

1995 68.6 16.2 7.0 8.2

1996 70.2 15.9 5.8 8.2

1997 57.3 33.6 1.8 7.3

1998 52.6 32.5 6.2 8.7

1999 49.8 34.1 7.0 9.2

2000 50.3 35.3 6.9 7.5

2001 44.3 42.5 7.7 5.5

2002 47.6 40.0 7.6 4.7

2003 38.9 47.2 8.2 5.6

2004 36.2 53.2 5.8 4.8

2005 40.6 46.0 8.7 4.8

2006 31.7 56.5 7.3 4.5

2007 36.7 47.6 8.7 7.0

2008 34.4 46.4 12.2 7.0

2009 34.9 55.4 4.4 5.2

2010 38.0 44.7 9.6 7.7

2011 38.1 46.7 7.1 8.1

2012 32.2 55.9 5.0 6.9

2013 27.1 59.3 5.1 8.5

2014 29.9 59.2 4.0 6.9

2015 30.1 57.4 5.2 7.4

2016 28.9 59.8 4.5 6.9

2017 30.8 61.6 2.7 4.9

2018 27.4 67.8 0.7 4.1

2019 27.3 67.9 2.2 2.6

2020 23.9 72.6 1.2 2.2

2021 28.0 67.6 1.3 3.2

2022 28.4 68.2 0.7 2.7

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Scenario 2: Assumes that BR-163, North-South (EF-151) Railroad (FNS), and Ferrogrão Railroad (EF-170), connecting Sorriso to 

Miritituba, are built. The scenario also assumes that the southern ports of Santos, Paranaguá, Rio Grande, and Sao Francisco do 

Sul have modernized their facilities to compete for cargo with the Northern Arc ports. In this case, transportation costs will likely 

decline by $28/metric ton.

2

Other competing countries include Paraguay and Canada.

Source: Sensitivity analysis results were calculated by USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, and Economic Consulting.
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PREFERRED CITATION

Salin, Delmy L. February 2024. UPDATE ON The Impact of Brazil’s Infrastructure and Transportation Costs on U.S. 

Soybean Market Share: An Updated Analysis from 1992-2022 (Summary). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural 

Marketing Service. 

Web. <http://dx.doi.org/10.9752/TS410.02-2024>

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