Grain Truck and Ocean Rate Advisory: 

Quarterly Updates

Transportation and Marketing Programs

Transportation Services Division

www.ams.usda.gov/AgTransportation

Table 1: U.S. Grain Truck Market, 4th Quarter 2018

 25 miles 100 miles 200 miles Truck availability

Truck 

usage

Future truck 

usage

1=Very Easy

to

5=Very Difficult

National average24.93 3.07 3.01 2.80 3.10 3.10

North Central region 5.19 3.02 3.08 3.00 3.00 3.10

Rocky Mountain N A N A N A N A N A N A

South Central 4.33 3.17 2.89 2.30 3.30 3.00

West N A N A N A N A N A N A

Figure 1: U.S. Grain Truck Market, 4thQuarter 2018

1Average rate per loaded mile, based on truck rates for trips of 25, 100, and 200 miles

Note: Fuel prices are a quarterly average (unit per gallon)

Fuel Price Data Source: Energy Information Administration U.S. Department of Energy, www.eia.doe.gov

Truck Advisory

5=Much Higher

1

Rates are based on trucks with 80,000 lb gross vehicle weight limit, and are quoted in U.S. dollar

2National average is based on rates received from various States, but not every State is represented.

Source: Transportation and Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA

1Rate per mile, per truckload

Quarterly Index

1=Much Lower

to

Average rate: $3.46

Availability Index: 2.30

Fuel price: $3.04

Fuel price: $3.27

Average rate1: $3.76

Availability Index: 3.00

Fuel price: $3.19

Average rate: n/a

Availability Index: n/a

Fuel price: $3.31

Average rate: n/a

Availability Index: n/a

Fuel price: $3.75
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 2 February 7, 2019 Table 2: Regional Truck Usage Index

2016 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

National 2.30 3.10 3.30 3.10 2.40 3.30 3.50 3.20

North Central 2.20 3.00 3.20 3.30 2.40 3.50 3.40 3.30

Rocky Mountain NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

South Central 2.30 3.30 3.50 2.90 2.50 4.00 3.50 3.10

West NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

2017 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

National 3.00 3.00 3.20 2.90 3.00 2.60 3.40 3.30

North Central 3.20 3.00 3.40 2.70 3.20 2.80 3.40 3.20

Rocky Mountain NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

South Central 2.90 2.70 2.50 3.00 2.80 2.50 3.00 3.40

West NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

2018 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

National 2.70 3.40 3.14 3.10 3.00 3.60 3.60 3.10

North Central 2.60 3.83 2.50 3.00 3.10 4.00 3.00 3.10

Rocky Mountain NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

South Central 3.00 2.50 3.10 3.30 2.50 2.50 3.50 3.00

West NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Figure 2: National Truck Usage, 4th Quarter 2018

Source: Transportation and Marketing Programs, AMS/USDA

Truck Usage

Future Truck Usage

1 = Much Lower to 5 = Much Higher 1 = Much Lower to 5 = Much Higher

Current Truck Usage

1

2

3

4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017 2018

National North Central South Central

Index Value

1 = Much Lower to 5 = Much Higher

4th Quarter 2018 % Change from: Nat. Avg. N. Central S. central 

Last Quarter -1 20 6 

Last Year 7 11 10
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 3 February 7, 2019 Table 3: Quarterly National Truck Availability Index

Region 1= Very Easy 5=Very Difficult

4thQuarter 

2018

Previous 

Quarter

Same Quarter 

Last Year

National 2.80 3.28 2.60

North Central 3.00 4.00 2.50

South Central 2.30 3.40 2.90

Figure 3: National Truck Availability

The truck availability index tracks the trends in perceived ease of hiring a truck as reported by grain 

elevators.

-25

-32

8

2 0

-21

Previous Qtr Same Qtr Last Year

Current qtr as % change from

Truck Availability

-15

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index Value

1=Very Easy to 5= Very Difficult

National North Central South Central

4th Quarter 2018% Change from: Nat. Avg. N. Central S. Central 

Last Quarter -15 -25 -32 

Last Year 8 20 -2 1
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 4 February 7, 2019

25 mi 100 mi 200 mi 25 mi 100 mi 200 mi

National Average $4.93 $3.07 $3.01 2.9% 4.8% 3.8% 6.3% -12.0% -4.4%

North Central $5.19 $3.02 $3.08 1.6% 14.8% 18.5% 5.9% -15.9% -6.4%

Rocky Mountain NA NA NA - - - - - -

South Central $4.33 $3.17 $2.89 17.3% -11.0% -13.7% -3.8% -1.2% -6.8%

West NA NA NA - - - - - -

NA: data not available

Rates are based on trucks with 80,000 lbs gross vehicle weight limit

Source: Transportation and Marketing Programs/AMS/USDA

 per truckload.

Figure 4: National Average Truck Rates by Trip Distance

 A truck is assumed to carry 55,000 lbs or 25 metric tons of grain. Rates per metric ton per mile can be calculated from rates 

Last qtr Same qtr Last year

Truck Rates

% increase from:

Region 25 miles 100 miles 200 miles

Table 4 : Average Grain Truck Rates for Short and Long Hauls, 4th Quarter 2018 ($/mile per truckload)

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

25 mi 200 mi 100 mi

4th Quarter 2018 % Change from: 25 mi. 100 mi. 200 mi 

Last Quarter 2.9 4.8 3.8 

Last Year 6.3 -12.0 -4.4
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 5 February 7, 2019 The diesel fuel price provides a proxy for trends in U.S. truck rates. Diesel fuel is a 

significant expense for grain movements.

Figure 5: U.S. Average On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices

Source: Energy Information Administration/U.S. Department of Energy

Table 5: 4th Quarter 2018 Average Diesel Fuel Prices (All Types - $/Gallon)

Last Quarter Same Qtr Last Year

East Coast 3.27 0.04 0.41

 New England 3.32 0.05 0.48

 Central Atlantic 3.44 0.04 0.43

 Lower Atlantic 3.14 0.04 0.37

Midwest 3.19 0.02 0.36

Gulf Coast 3.04 0.02 0.37

Rocky Mountain 3.31 -0.05 0.35

West Coast 3.75 0.02 0.48

 California 3.99 0.03 0.55

U.S. 3.26 0.02 0.39

U.S. Diesel Fuel Prices

Source: Energy Information Administration/U.S. Department of Energy

Location Price Change From

2.07

2.30

2.38

2.47 2.57

2.55

2.63

2.87

3.02

3.19

3.24 3.26

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016 2017 2018

$/Gallon

U.S. diesel prices are up 1% 

from last quarter and up

14% from the same quarter 

last year
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 6 February 7, 2019 Country

1st Qtr 

2017

2nd Qtr 

2017

3rd Qtr 

2017 

4th Qtr 

2017 Average

1st Qtr 

2018

2nd Qtr 

2018

3rd Qtr 

2018 

4th Qtr 

2018 Average

Japan 36.45 38.08 39.23 43.56 39.33 44.27 43.68 45.13 48.46 45.39

Rotterdam 14.77 14.49 15.03 17.59 15.47 16.82 20.67 21.06 20.83 19.85

China 35.17 37.15 38.37 42.78 38.36 43.41 42.69 44.05 47.52 44.42

Mexico 14.27 12.95 12.98 14.26 13.61 13.97 14.07 14.68 15.63 14.59

Colombia: Atlantic Port (East) 19.96 17.48 18.19 20.42 19.01 19.77 19.64 20.02 21.28 20.18

Colombia: Pacific Ports (West) 28.04 24.37 26.64 28.26 26.83 28.01 28.15 28.64 29.95 28.69

Country

1st Qtr 

2017

2nd Qtr 

2017

3rd Qtr 

2017 

4th Qtr 

2017 Average

1st Qtr 

2018

2nd Qtr 

2018

3rd Qtr 

2018 

4th Qtr 

2018 Average

Japan 19.02 19.93 20.71 24.56 21.05 24.25 24.37 24.97 26.69 25.07

China 18.27 19.01 20.16 24.05 20.37 23.40 23.72 24.26 25.97 24.34

Source: O'Neil Commodity Consulting

Figure 6: Grain Vessel Rates and Spread, U.S. to Japan

Source: O'Neil Commodity Consulting

Table 6: Ocean Shipping Rates for Bulk Grain ($/metric ton)

Gulf to

PNW to 

Ocean Rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

U.S$/metric ton

Spread Gulf to Japan PNW to Japan

Ocean rates for 4th quarter, 2018: Gulf PNW Spread

Change from previous quarter 7% 7% 8% 

Change from last year 11% 9% 15%
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 7 February 7, 2019

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the USDA, its Agencies, offices, and employees, and institutions participating in or administering USDA programs are prohibited from discriminating based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, gender identity (including gender expression),

sexual orientation, disability, age, marital status, family/parental status, income derived from a public assistance program,

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Persons with disabilities who require alternative means of communication for program information (e.g., Braille, large print,

audiotape, American Sign Language, etc.) should contact the responsible Agency or USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-

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To file a program discrimination complaint, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form, AD-3027, found 

online at How to File a Program Discrimination Complaint and at any USDA office or write a letter addressed to USDA and 

provide in the letter all of the information requested in the form. To request a copy of the complaint form, call (866) 632-

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email: program.intake@usda.gov.

USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.

Surajudeen Olowolayemo

Economist

Surajudeen.Olowolayemo@ams.usda.gov 202.720-0119

April Taylor

Economist

April.Taylor@ams.usda.gov

202.295.7374

Brian McGregor

Supervisory Agricultural 

Marketing Specialist

Brian.McGregor@ams.usda.gov 202.720.0035

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