Analyzing Three Investment Scenarios

August 2019

Barge tow on Chain of Rocks Canal of

Mississippi River above St. Louis

Importance of Inland Waterways 

to U.S. Agriculture

This material was produced for the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), through Cooperative Agreement Number 18-TMTSD-TN0011. Informa Agribusiness Consulting (Informa) has used the best and most accurate information available to complete this study. For more information and to learn more about

Informa Agribusiness Consulting, please visit Agribusinessintelligence.com. A more detailed report can be found on USDA AMS website.
2

Density of U.S. Corn and Soybean Production Areas in Proximity to the 

Navigable Waterways on the Mississippi River System Depicted in Map

Corn and Soybean Production

(Million Bushels)

10 and Greater

5 to 10

2.5 to 5

1 to 2.5

Less than 1

Lock & Dam Projects by Amount

($ Million)

River Grain Elevators (227)

River City

500 and Greater

Less than 50

100 to 500

50 to 100

Navigable Waterways

Dredging Lower 

Mississippi 

River to 50-feet

America’s Heartland Requires a 

Reliable Transportation Corridor
LOSS OF GLOBAL 

COMPETITIVENESS

REDUCED 

TRANSPORTATION 

CAPACITY

HIGHER

FREIGHT RATES

LOWER FARM

INCOME

Leads to lower effective 

transportation capacity

Leads to higher freight 

rates; more dependency on 

truck and rail

Leads to lower farm income; 

more road congestion; more 

rail service problems

Leads to lower U.S. 

economic activity

Without infrastructure 

investment, the farmer is 

less competitive globally The background photo depicts broken wickets at Locks and Dam 52 along the Ohio

River. The Corps of Engineers replaced Locks and Dam 52 and 53 with Olmsted Locks

and Dam in 2018. At the time of this photo the wickets exceeded their lifespan by

nearly 40 years.

Infrastructure is critical to competitiveness

of U.S. farmers

3

Locks and Dam 15, located in Rock Island, Illinois

U.S. Agriculture’s 

Competitiveness 

Depends on 

Inland Waterways

INADEQUATE 

INFRASTRUCTURE 
STATUS QUO INVESTMENT

REDUCED INVESTMENT

Sales

GDP

Employment

Sales

GDP

Employment

Total Cumulative Economic Impact to 2045

Total Cumulative Economic Impact to 2045

472,000

$258 B

$496 B

323,000

$115 B

$220 B

Current funding trends continue to 

2045 for new construction, major 

rehabilitation and performing 

routine maintenance (totaling 

$29.6B).

INCREASED INVESTMENT

Increased funding to construct all 

authorized projects ($6.3B) in 10 

years, including increased funding 

to 2045 to rehabilitate existing locks 

and perform routine maintenance 

(totaling $35.9B).

Gradually decreasing funding 

through 2045 for operation and 

maintenance, leading to decreased 

reliability. No construction of 

authorized projects (totaling 

$15.3B).

Sales

GDP

Employment 395,000

Total Cumulative Economic Impact to 2045

$185 B

$354 B

↑ $72 B

↑ 39%

↑ $142 B

↑ 40%

↓ 72,000

↓ 18%

↓ $70 B

↓ 38%

↓ $133 B

↓ 38%

4

↑ 77,000

↑ 20%

Increase Over Status Quo:

↑ $6.3 Billion

Decrease From Status Quo:

↓ $14.3 Billion

Inland Waterway Investment 

Grows American Economy
FARM PRODUCT 

VOLUME

Total Cumulative Market Value Impact to 2045

The inland navigable waterways are 

essential to moving farm products 

to grain export elevators along the 

Gulf.

U.S. corn and soybean farmers are 

the most efficient in the world. Our 

country’s waterways and 

multimodal transportation network 

provides a competitive edge in 

global markets.

Status Quo 160.8

Total Cumulative Volume Impact to 2045 

(Million Tons)

Increased 216.7

Reduced 86.4 ↓ 74.4

↓ 46%

MARKET VALUE

Increased

Investment

+$39 Billion

Reduced 

Investment

-$58 Billion

Range of

$97 Billion

5

↑ 55.9

↑ 35%

More Investment = More Farm Exports 

Less Investment = Less Farm Exports
SOYBEAN COST TO SHANGHAI, CHINA

REDUCED

INVESTMENT 

2045

INCREASED 

INVESTMENT 

2045

DAVENPORT, IA

2018

NORTH MATO 

GROSSO, BRAZIL

2018

Units are in $/MT

Infrastructure Investment is critical for competitiveness of the U.S. farmer. Infrastructure

investment leads to higher transportation capacity; higher transportation capacity leads

to lower freight rates; lower freight rates lead to higher farmer returns. Without

infrastructure investment, both the U.S. farmer and the American economy lose to global

competitors.

Current Cost

Investment Effects

$293.43 $313.55

$12.10

$79.37

$24.28

$47.52

$30.00

$397.45

$402.80

$313.55 $313.55

$12.10 $12.10

$20.10

$33.52

$34.50

$380.25 $47.52

$406.69

↓$4.18

↓17%

↓4%

↑$9.24

↑38%

↑2%

↓$13.02

↓27%

$313.55

$12.10

$26.60

$47.52

$399.77 ↑0.5%

↑$2.32

↑9%

STATUS QUO

2045

6

Increased Investment Enhances 

Competitiveness by 

Reducing Shipping Costs 
• Higher and consistent inland waterway 

investment is needed to ensure the longterm prosperity of U.S. agriculture

• The Navigation & Ecosystem 

Sustainability Program (NESP) is essential 

for the competitiveness of the heartland 

corridor – its Pre-construction 

Engineering & Design (PED) funding is 

necessary before construction can begin. 

Pending PED funding for NESP is timesensitive.

China investment in Brazil hit seven-year 

high in 2017

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-chinainvestment/china-investment-in-brazil-hit-sevenyear-high-in-2017-idUSKBN1F7387

Brazil wants China to invest in its 

infrastructure

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-wantschina-invest-infrastructure-194842132.html

China to invest $50bn in Brazil 

infrastructure

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-32747454

RECENT NEWS HEADLINES

7

SOYBEAN TRANSPORTATION COSTS TO CHINA: U.S. vs. BRAZIL

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

$/Metric Ton

Davenport North Mato Grosso

AMERICAN INFRASTRUCTURE 

IMPERATIVE

Will the U.S. Retain its

Competitive Advantage?
8

Potential Investments River State River 

Mile

Amount 

($Million)

NAVIGATION & ECOSYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY PROGRAM (NESP) PROJECTS - AWAITING CONSTRUCTION

LaGrange Lock Illinois River/IL 80 $361.3

Peoria Lock Illinois River/IL 158 $362.5 

Upper Mississippi River Lock and Dam 20 Mississippi River/MO 343 $326.3 

Upper Mississippi River Lock and Dam 21 Mississippi River/MO 325 $454.2 

Upper Mississippi River Lock and Dam 22 Mississippi River/MO 301 $376.6 

Upper Mississippi River Lock and Dam 24 Mississippi River/MO 273 $438.3 

Upper Mississippi River Lock and Dam 25 Mississippi River/MO 241 $548.5 

PROJECTS AWAITING CONSTRUCTION

Brazos High Island Gulf Intracoastal Waterway/TX $17.6

Brazos River to Port O'Connor Gulf Intracoastal Waterway/TX $22.2 

Calcasieu Lock Gulf Intracoastal Waterway/TX 63 $16.9 

Dashields Lock Ohio River/PA 13 $808.7 

Dredging Lower-Mississippi River to 50ft Mississippi River/LA $159.1 

Emsworth Lock Ohio River/PA 6 $744.4 

Inner Harbor Navigation Canal Lock Mississippi River/LA 63 $1,009.9 

Montgomery Lock Ohio River/PA 32 $362.5 

MAJOR REHABILITATION PROJECTS

Brandon Road Lock Illinois River/IL 286 $69.2

Dresden Island Illinois River/IL 271.5 $50.5 

Greenup Lock Ohio River/OH & KY 341 $55.0 

J.T. Myers Lock Ohio River/IN & KY 846 $45.2 

Starved Rock Illinois River/IL 231 $30.3 

TJ O'Brien Illinois River/IL 327 $47.0 

TOTAL $6,306 

The projects and costs listed above are based on the USACE’s 2016 Capital Investment Strategy

Increased Investment Leads to

Stronger Economy for Decades
State Economic Impact of U.S. Corn and Soybean Production

Destined to Export, in Proximity to the Navigable Waterways 

on the Mississippi River System, 2016 Depicted in Map 9

Economic Impact of Corn and Soybean 

Exports by State
State Economic Impact of U.S. Corn and Soybean Production 

Destined to Export, in Proximity to the Navigable Waterways 

on the Mississippi River System, 2016 Depicted in Table 10

State Commodity Employment GDP

($ Million)

Sales

($ Million)

Arkansas

Corn 1,171 49.1 154.8

Soybean 7,805 746.4 1,433.4

Total 8,976 795.6 1,588.2

Illinois

Corn 8,684 622.5 1,880.5

Soybean 9,960 1,062.8 2,946.7

Total 18,644 1,685.3 4,827.2

Indiana

Corn 1,654 96.8 291.6

Soybean 4,377 454.8 1,036.7

Total 6,031 551.6 1,328.3

Iowa

Corn 812 68.5 221.8

Soybean 10,137 1,408.0 3,038.2

Total 10,949 1,476.6 3,260.0

Kentucky

Corn 2,599 80.8 271.7

Soybean 4,604 294.5 708.7

Total 7,203 375.3 980.3

Louisiana Soybean 3,471 255.9 552.8

Total 3,471 255.9 552.8

Minnesota

Corn 1,317 90.4 281.9

Soybean 5,583 667.9 1,446.4

Total 6,900 758.3 1,728.2

Mississippi

Corn 1,129 47.7 148.1

Soybean 5,234 478.0 946.3

Total 6,364 525.7 1,094.4

Missouri

Corn 1,267 50.4 171.3

Soybean 8,280 566.6 1,564.9

Total 9,547 617.0 1,736.3

Ohio

Corn 381 16.5 49.9

Soybean 4,861 327.2 882.2

Total 5,242 343.6 932.1

Tennessee

Corn 1,284 34.9 102.5

Soybean 4,876 221.1 595.7

Total 6,160 255.9 698.3

Wisconsin

Corn 72 3.7 11.0

Soybean 4,097 387.7 830.8

Total 4,170 391.3 841.7

Waterways Benefits by State