From: Richard Parker [mailto:richardparkerdc@gmail.com]

Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 10:51 PM

To: Andrew Delaski; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Smith; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Siqueiros; Caskey, John; Chad Kennedy; Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown; Creevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; Eduardo
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Tendulkar; Wes Patterson; Zhimei Luo Subject: Leisure Reading -- if you like dense plots

Dear high-powered (but low voltage) colleagues,

The attached simplified price curves supplied by Navigant for LV are qui te useful graphically and I encourage you to look them over (some coul d not find it on sharepoint but they are there and I am attaching them here for ease of reference for those who may still be having difficulty with sharepoint).

The charts and plot setups includ ed with these charts are also qu ite useful (particularly for those of us with color issues implicated by scatterdot plots) in clearly illust rating and explaining the conundrum we grappled with in th e LV meeting today (perfectly flat price-efficiency curves through several ELs particularly in DL 7 resulti ng in seemingly high energy savings from EL 1.

As we discovered (but these docs illustrate gr aphically and numerically) the anomaly results from the computer's selection of designs that actually achieve EL 2, 3, and sometimes EL4 levels of efficiency when, hypothetically, only EL 1 is mandated. The paradox is particularly acute, as Mike Rivest noted, for DL7. The realism of this scenario (and the likelihood of achieving 1 Quad of saving from an EL1 standard) obvious ly turns on the probability of manufacturers voluntarily selecting designs that achieve EL 2, 3, 4 in practice when, hypothetically, only EL 1 is mandated. That in turn implicates the issue of whether the price-efficiency curves are really as flat as the model suggests.

Another virtue of looking over the plot setup spre adsheets is that it give s you the precise prices and price increments estimated for each design. He re, I took the liberty of adding a column G in the plot setups for DL 7 and 8. Column G displays the price increment for each EL over the next lower EL for each metal. I also bolded the lowest priced row for each EL among all the designs -- the bolds include those designs that are a pri ced within about 10 perc ent of the lowest-cost design for each EL.

For those conversant with the (rather cryptic) co des in the plot setup, the setups should yield other design details such as whether the designs are butt-lapped, mitred, etc. Rob Carmichael's very helpful MIA memo covers this ground in pros e at a slightly higher le vel of generality.

So I commend these simplified curves and suppor t plot setup worksheeps to your attention, if you haven't discovered them already, but only after you've gotten a good night's sleep, andbreakfast and gotten thro ugh the sports pages.

All best,

Richard