APPENDIX I. GOVERNMENT REGULATORY IMPACT MODEL (GRIM)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

**I.1 INTRODUCTION**  **AND PURPOSE**  **................................................................................I­2**

**I.2 MODEL**  **DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................I­2** 

**I.3 DETAILED**  **CASH FLOW**  **EXAMPLE...........................................................................I­1**

**I­1**APPENDIX I. GOVERNMENT REGULATORY IMPACT MODEL (GRIM)

I.1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE

**The purpose**  **of the**  **Government Regulatory**  **Impact Model**  **(GRIM) is**  **to help**  **quantify the** 

**impacts of**  **energy conservation**  **standards and**  **other regulations**  **on manufacturers.**  **The basic** 

**mode of**  **analysis is**  **to estimate**  **the change**  **in value**  **of the**  **industry or**  **manufacturers(s) following** 

**a regulation**  **or a**  **series of**  **regulations. The**  **model structure**  **also allows**  **an analysis**  **of multiple** 

**equipment with**  **regulations taking**  **effect over**  **a period**  **of time,**  **and of**  **multiple regulations**  **on the** 

**same equipment.** 

**Industry net**  **present value**  **is defined,**  **for the**  **purpose of**  **this analysis,**  **as the**  **discounted**

**sum of**  **industry free**  **cash flows**  **plus a**  **discounted terminal**  **value. The**  **model calculates**  **the**

**actual cash**  **flows by**  **year and**  **then determines**  **the present**  **value of**  **those cash**  **flows both**  **without**

**an energy**  **conservation standard**  **(i.e., the**  **base case)**  **and under**  **different trial**  **standard levels** 

**(TSLs).**

**Output from**  **the model**  **consists of**  **summary financial**  **metrics, graphs**  **of major**  **variables,**

**and, when**  **appropriate, access**  **to the**  **complete cash**  **flow calculation.** 

I.2 MODEL DESCRIPTION

**The basic**  **structure of**  **the GRIM**  **is a**  **standard annual**  **cash flow**  **analysis that**  **uses**

**manufacturer selling**  **prices, manufacturing**  **costs, a**  **shipments forecast,**  **and financial**  **parameters**

**as inputs**  **and accepts**  **a set**  **of regulatory**  **conditions as**  **changes in**  **costs and**  **investments. The** 

**cash flow**  **analysis is**  **separated into**  **two major**  **blocks: income**  **and cash**  **flow. The**  **income**

**calculation determines**  **net operating**  **profit after**  **taxes. The**  **cash flow**  **calculation converts**  **net**

**operating profit**  **after taxes**  **into an**  **annual cash**  **flow by**  **including investment**  **and non­cash**  **items.**

**Below are**  **definitions of**  **listed items**  **on the**  **printout of**  **the output**  **sheet (see**  **Section I.3).** 

(1) Unit Sales: **Total annual**  **shipments for**  **the industry**  **were obtained**  **from the**  **National**

**Energy Savings**  **Spreadsheet. The**  **distribution of**  **shipments by**  **efficiency level**  **was**

**modified based**  **on feedback**  **from manufacturers**  **regarding the**  **ability to**  **sell baseline**  **and**

**premium equipment**  **depending on**  **the standard**  **level proposed;** 

(2) Revenues: **Annual revenues**  **­ computed by**  **multiplying equipment**  **unit price**  **at each** 

**efficiency level**  **by the**  **appropriate manufacturer**  **markup;**

(3) Labor: **The portion**  **of cost**  **of goods**  **sold (COGS)**  **that includes**  **direct labor,**  **commissions,**

**dismissal pay,**  **bonuses, vacation,**  **sick leave,**  **social security**  **contributions, fringe,**  **and**

**assembly labor**  **up­time;**

(4) Material: **The portion**  **of COGS**  **that includes**  **materials;**

**I­2**(5) Overhead: **The portion**  **of COGS**  **that includes**  **indirect labor,**  **indirect material,**  **energy use,** 

**maintenance, depreciation,**  **property taxes,**  **and insurance**  **related to**  **assets. While**  **included**

**in overhead,**  **the depreciation**  **is shown**  **as a**  **separate line**  **item;**

(6) Depreciation: **Annual depreciation**  **computed as**  **a percentage**  **of** Revenues (2)

**. While** 

**included in**  **overhead, the**  **depreciation is**  **shown as**  **a separate**  **line item;** 

(7) Standard SG&A: **Selling, general,**  **and administrative**  **costs are**  **computed as**  **a percentage** 

**of** Revenues (2) **;**

(8) R&D: **GRIM separately**  **accounts for**  **ordinary research**  **and development**  **(R&D) as**  **a**

**percentage of**  Revenues (2) **;**

(9) Equipment Conversion Expense: **Equipment conversion**  **expenses are**  **one­time**

**investments in**  **research, development,**  **testing, and**  **marketing focused**  **on making**  **equipment**

**designs comply**  **with the**  **new efficiency**  **standard. GRIM**  **allocates these**  **costs over**  **the**

**period between**  **the standard’s**  **announcement and**  **effective dates;** 

(10) R­410A Equipment Conversion Expense: **Equipment conversion**  **expenses are**  **one­time**

**investments in**  **research, development,**  **testing, and**  **marketing focused**  **on making**  **equipment**

**designs comply**  **with the**  **refrigerant phaseout.**  **GRIM allocates**  **these costs**  **to the**  **year prior** 

**to the**  **effective date**  **of the**  **refrigerant phaseout;** 

(11) Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT): **Includes profits**  **before deductions**  **for**

**interest paid**  **and taxes;** 

(12) EBIT as a Percentage of Sales: **GRIM calculates**  **EBIT as**  **a percentage**  **of sales**  **to**

**compare with**  **the industry’s**  **average reported**  **in financial**  **statements;**

(13) Taxes: **Taxes on**  EBIT (11) **are calculated**  **by multiplying**  **the tax**  **rate contained**  **in Major** 

**Assumptions by**  EBIT (11)

**.**

(14) Net Operating Profits After Taxes (NOPAT): **Computed by**  **subtracting** Cost of Goods

Sold ((3) to (6))

**,** SG&A (7)

**,** R&D (8)

**,** Equipment Conversion Expense (9)

**,** (10) R­410A

Equipment Conversion Expense

**, and**  Taxes (13) **from** Revenues (2)

**.**

(15) NOPAT repeated **: NOPAT**  **is repeated**  **in the**  **Statement of**  **Cash Flows;** 

(16) Depreciation repeated **: Depreciation**  **is added**  **back in**  **the Statement**  **of Cash**  **Flows**

**because it**  **is a**  **non­cash expense;** 

(17) Change in Working Capital **: Change**  **in cash**  **tied up**  **in accounts**  **receivable, inventory,**  **and**

**other cash**  **investments necessary**  **to support**  **operations is**  **calculated by**  **multiplying**

**working capital**  **(as a**  **percentage of**  **revenues) by**  **the change**  **in annual**  **revenues.**

**I­3**(18) Cash Flow From Operations **: Calculated**  **by taking**  NOPAT (15)

**, adding**  **back non­cash** 

**items such**  **as a**  Depreciation (16)

**, and**  **subtracting out**  Change in Working Capital (17) **;**

(19) Ordinary Capital Expenditures: **Ordinary investments**  **in property,**  **plant, and**  **equipment to** 

**maintain and**  **replace existing**  **production assets,**  **computed as**  **a percentage**  **of** Revenues (2) **;**

(20) Conversion Capital Expenditures: **Conversion capital**  **expenditures are**  **one­time**

**investments in**  **property, plant,**  **and equipment**  **to adapt**  **or change**  **existing production** 

**facilities so**  **that new**  **equipment designs**  **can be**  **fabricated and**  **assembled under**  **the new** 

**regulation;**

(21) R­410A Conversion Capital Expenditures: **Conversion capital**  **expenditures are**  **one­time**

**investments in**  **property, plant,**  **and equipment**  **to adapt**  **or change**  **existing production** 

**facilities so**  **that new**  **equipment designs**  **can be**  **fabricated and**  **assembled under**  **the**

**refrigerant phaseout;** 

(22) Capital Investment: **Total investments**  **in property,**  **plant, and**  **equipment are**  **computed by** 

**adding** Ordinary Capital Expenditures (19)

**,** Conversion Capital Expenditures (20)

**, and** 

R­410A Conversion Capital Expenditures (21) **;**

(23) Free Cash Flow: **Annual cash**  **flow from**  **operations and**  **investments; computed**  **by**

**subtracting** Capital Investment (22) **from** Cash Flow from Operations (18) **;**

(24) Terminal Value: **Estimate of**  **the continuing**  **value of**  **the industry**  **after 2042.**  **Computed**

**by growing**  **the Free**  **Cash Flow**  **in year**  **2042 at**  **a constant**  **rate in**  **perpetuity;**

(25) Present Value Factor: **Factor used**  **to calculate**  **an estimate**  **of the**  **present value**  **of an** 

**amount to**  **be received**  **in the**  **future;**

(26) Discounted Cash Flow: Free Cash Flows (23) **multiplied by**  **the** Present Value Factor

(25)

**. For**  **2042 the**  **discounted cash**  **flow includes**  **the discounted**  Terminal Value (24) **; and** 

(27) Industry Value thru 2042: **The sum**  **of** Discounted Cash Flows (26)

**.**

**I­4**esI.3DETAILEDCASHFLOWEXAMPLEStandardPTACsandPTHPs(StandardCase)STANDARDCASESCENARIOBaseYearAnn.YearR410APhaseoutStandardYear20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016**($ in** **Millions)**UnitSalesRevenuesCostofSalesLabor3.2%Material65.6%Overhead5.3%Depreciation1.7%StrandedAssetsSelling,GeneralandAdministrativeStandardSG&A27$27$28$29$32$32$33$33$33$34$34$R&D1.6%3$3$3$3$4$4$4$4$4$4$4$EquipmentConversionExpense­$­$­$­$­$­$­$­$­$­$­$R­410AEquipmentConversionExpense­$­$­$14$­$­$­$­$­$­$­$EarningsBeforInterestandTaxes(EBIT)9.6%16$16$17$3$19$19$20$20$20$20$20$EBIT/Revenues8.5%8.5%8.5%1.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%Taxes6$6$6$1$7$7$7$7$7$7$7$NetOperatingProfitafterTaxes(NOPAT)10$11$11$2$12$12$13$13$13$13$13$IncomeStatement**0.375 0.383** **0.392 0.401** **0.409 0.417** **0.423 0.428** **0.431 0.435** **0.440 $** **189 $** **193 $** **198 $** **202 $** **224 $** **228 $** **231 234** **$ 236** **$ 238** **$ $** **241**0.00%Labor%increaseEffectivedate**$ 6** **$ 6** **$ 6** **$ 6** **$ 7** **$ 7** **$ 7** **7$ 8$** **8$ $** **8 $** **124 $** **127 $** **130 $** **133 $** **147 $** **150 $** **152 153** **$ 155** **$ 156** **$ $** **158 $** **10 $** **10 $** **11 $** **11 $** **12 $** **12 $** **12 12** **$ 13** **$ 13** **$ $** **13 $** **3 $** **3 $** **3 $** **3 $** **4 $** **4 $** **4 4$** **4$ 4$** **$ 4** NOPATCashFlowStatement$10$11$11$2 $12$12$13$13$13$13$13Depreciation$3 $3 $3 $3 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4ChangeinWorkingCapital**$ ­ $** **(0) $** **(0) $** **(0) $** **(1) $** **(0) $** **(0) $** **(0) $** **(0) $** **(0) $** **(0)**Cash Flows from Operations$14$14$14$5 $15$16$16$17$17$17$17$0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0OrdinaryCapitalExpenditur1.8%$(3)$(3)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)ConversionCapitalExpenditures**$ ­** **$ ­** **$ ­** **$ ­** **$ ­** **$ ­** **$ ­** **$ ­** **$ ­** **$ ­** **$ ­** R­410A Capital Conversion Expense$­ $­ $­ $(7)$­ $­ $­ $­ $­ $­ $­CapitalInvestments$(3)$(3)$(4)$(11)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)$(4)Free Cash Flow$10$10$10$(5)$11$12$12$12$13$13$13Terminal Value$­ $­ $­ $­ $­ $­ $­ $­ $­ $­ $­PresentValueFactor**1.050 1.000** **0.952 0.907** **0.864 0.823** **0.784 0.746** **0.711 0.677** **0.645**DiscountedCashFlow$10.64$10.21$9.95$(4.85)$9.72$9.93$9.62$9.29$8.93$8.58$8.26IndustryValuethru2042304.9$**I­1**