CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 14-1 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY ..................................................................... 14-1 

14.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 14-2 

14.3.1 Results for Class A Equipment .......................................................................... 14-3 

14.3.2 Impacts Related to Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – Trial 

Standard Level 1 ................................................................................................ 14-6 

14.3.3 Results for Trial Standard Levels 2 through 7 for Class A Equipment ............. 14-7 

14.3.4 Results for Class B Equipment .......................................................................... 14-8 

14.3.5 Impacts Related to Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – Trial 

Standard Level 1 ................................................................................................ 14-8 

14.3.6 Results for Trial Standard Levels 2 through 6 for Class B Equipment ............. 14-9 

REFERENCE........................................................................................................................... 14-13 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commercial Electricity Consumption, 

Electricity Generation, and Electricity Capacity ............................................... 14-3 

Table 14.3.2 Trial Standard Level 1 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ........................................................................................... 14-3 

Table 14.3.3 Trial Standard Level 2 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ........................................................................................... 14-4 

Table 14.3.4 Trial Standard Level 3 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ........................................................................................... 14-4 

Table 14.3.5 Trial Standard Level 4 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ........................................................................................... 14-4 

Table 14.3.6 Trial Standard Level 5 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ........................................................................................... 14-5 

Table 14.3.7 Trial Standard Level 6 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ........................................................................................... 14-5 

Table 14.3.8 Trial Standard Level 7 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ........................................................................................... 14-6 

Table 14.3.9 Trial Standard Level 1 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ........................................................................................... 14-8 

Table 14.3.10 Trial Standard Level 2 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ......................................................................................... 14-10 

Table 14.3.11 Trial Standard Level 3 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ......................................................................................... 14-10 

Table 14.3.12 Trial Standard Level 4 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ......................................................................................... 14-10 

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Table 14.3.13 Trial Standard Level 5 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ......................................................................................... 14-11 

Table 14.3.14 Trial Standard Level 6 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment ......................................................................................... 14-11 

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CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION 

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) analyzed the effects of energy conservation 

standards for beverage vending machines on the electric utility industry. DOE conducted the 

utility impact analysis using Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) National Energy 

Modeling System (NEMS), a public domain, multi-sector, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. 

energy sector. For more information on NEMS, refer to DOE EIA documentation. More detailed 

and current documentation of various sub-models within NEMS can be obtained from EIA’s 

website, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to 

produce a reference energy forecast for the United States, published in the Annual Energy 

Outlook.

1

 The Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of 

the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook 

(AEO2009-B) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030. 

DOE used a variant of this NEMS model, referred to as NEMS-Building Technologies 

(NEMS-BT), to account for the impact of amended energy conservation standards on the 

reference energy forecast. DOE/EIA approves the use of NEMS to describe only an official 

version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some 

minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations 

of DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS-BT). The NEMS-BT reference 

case was modeled after the AEO2009-B reference case, which shows only slight differences from 

the AEO reference case. The utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model 

results for the reference case and for the policy cases in which amended energy conservation 

standards are in place. In the discussion below, the phrase “reference case” should be understood 

to refer to the NEMS-BT reference case. 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its use in the analysis of national 

energy conservation standards. The model uses a set of assumptions that are well known and 

fairly transparent because of the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the 

comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy 

supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the 

effects of energy conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to 

estimate marginal effects, which yield a more accurate estimate of the actual impacts of energy 

conservation standards compared to considering only average effects. 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY 

DOE’s utility impact analysis applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2009-B. 

For example, the operating characteristics (energy conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of future 

electricity generating plants are as specified in the AEO2009-B reference case. The utility impact 

analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation by fuel type that result from each 

trial standard level (TSL) as well as changes in electricity sales to the commercial sector. 

The utility analysis uses the AEO2009-B Reference Case as the base case and treats the 

energy conservation standards on beverage vending machine equipment as variations in policy. 

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The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference in the reference case and the proposed 

energy conservation standards case. Because the implementation of energy conservation 

standards for beverage vending machine equipment reduces the electricity demand by less than 

0.1 percent (in the range of 0.0006 to 0.0143 percent in 2025 for Class A equipment, and 0.0002 

to 0.0057 percent in 2025 for Class B equipment, depending on the TSL) in any given year, its 

effect is difficult to measure adequately in the NEMS simulations. Therefore, larger reductions in 

demand are modeled, and results for the TSLs are interpolated. The effects are assumed to be 

linear within the range of interpolation. 

In its analysis of energy conservation standards for beverage vending machine 

equipment, DOE adjusted the annual end-use energy consumption for refrigeration that was 

predicted within the commercial sector module of NEMS-BT. These decrements in the annual 

consumption were made for each census division using the method for computing energy savings 

developed in the national impact analysis (chapter 11). The changes in annual consumption were 

translated into changes in hourly system load as part of the normal NEMS modeling process 

using the NEMS’ standard commercial building refrigeration shapes. 

As mentioned above, the magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for 

NEMS-BT to produce stable results, outside the range of numerical noise, is larger than the highest 

energy conservation standard under consideration. The numerical noise stems in part from the 

inability to balance the demand and supply sides of NEMS, given the iterative nature of the 

solution process. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to the TSL using interpolation. 

DOE implemented reductions to both the commercial refrigeration end uses at multiples of the 

proposed standards and linearly interpolated actual changes in generation and capacity due to the 

standard from these outputs. In this analysis, the total savings for Class A beverage vending 

machine equipment were estimated through interpolation of the impacts of effects 18.7, 28.1, and 

37.5 times greater than the actual expected impacts. In the case of Class B equipment under TSL 6, 

the multipliers used in this analysis were 47.0, 70.5, and 93.0. Appendix K, Estimation of Utility 

and Environmental Results from NEMS-BT Output, provides details of the interpolation method 

and how the multiples were selected. 

The terminal year of the NEMS-BT model is 2030, impacts beyond which are typically 

extrapolated based on the pattern of electricity savings (in kWh) expected for a particular standard. 

The extrapolation was based on a comparison of the change in the NEMS-BT variable (e.g., coalfired generation) to the change in electricity savings over 2025–2030. As a first step to implement 

the method, the changes in electricity savings over three periods—2030 to 2035, 2035 to 2040, and 

2040 to 2042—are usually expressed as ratios to the change in electricity savings over 2025–2030. 

The changes in a utility-sector variable can then be multiplied by these ratios to estimate the 

changes after 2030. However, in the case of beverage vending machine equipment in 2025, 

shipment rate is constant and all machines on the market will comply with the standards 

established in this rule. Consequently, the net energy consumption from 2025–2042 is constant; as 

a result, the impact on U.S. electricity generation (expressed in terawatt-hours (TWh) and installed 

generation capacity (expressed in gigawatts (GW)) is also constant. 

14.3 RESULTS 

The results from the reference case are shown in Table 14.3.1. 

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Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commercial Electricity Consumption, Electricity 

Generation, and Electricity Capacity 

NEMS-BT Results 2005* 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh** 

Electricity Sales 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,621 1,741 1,864 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh† 

Coal 2,014 2,021 2,137 2,200 2,204

Petroleum 122 56 47 49 50

Gas 757 790 664 729 921 

Nuclear 782 809 831 877 883 

Renewables 371 480 658 719 784 

Total 4,045 4,157 4,338 4,573 4,840

 2,309 

50 

993 

890 

811 

 5,053 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW†† 

Fossil Steam†† 430.9 439.3 418.5 420.2 420.2

Combined Cycle 169.3 194.8 196.3 196.9 221.4

Combustion Turbines 130.3 138.4 133.6 139.8 160.8

Nuclear 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.4 110.4

Renewables 115.0 147.0 177.0 177.1 179.3

Total 945.6 1,020.9 1,029.5 1,044.4 1,092.2

 430.3 

 237.2 

 185.4 

 110.0 

 181.8 

 1,144.8 * NEMS-BT reports 2005 values that are close to those shown in EIA’s Annual Energy Review 2006. ** Comparable to panel in Table A8 of AEO 2008, Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions, that 

displays electricity sales by sector. 

† Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009-B: Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions. Includes 

generation from electricity-only, combined heat and power, and end-use generators.

†† Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2009-B: Electricity Generating Capacity. Fossil steam includes coal steam and 

other fossil fuel steam plants.
 

14.3.1 Results for Class A Equipment 

Results for the various TSLs for Class A equipment are presented in Table 14.3.2 through 

Table 14.3.8. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results as described in section 14.2 

for commercial sector energy sales, total U.S. electricity generation, and installed capacity. 

Table 14.3.2 Trial Standard Level 1 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.0131 -0.0246 -0.0306 -0.0312 -0.0317 -0.0324 -0.0327 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0021 -0.0054 -0.0094 -0.0155 -0.0210 -0.0280 -0.0313 

Petroleum -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 0.0009 

Gas -0.0124 -0.0199 -0.0189 -0.0114 -0.0047 0.0040 0.0080 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0006 -0.0017 0.0001 0.0017 0.0038 0.0047 

Renewables 0.0025 0.0034 0.0022 -0.0012 -0.0041 -0.0080 -0.0098 

Total -0.0122 -0.0227 -0.0279 -0.0277 -0.0277 -0.0275 -0.0275 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0010 0.0011 0.0004 -0.0009 -0.0021 -0.0037 -0.0044 

Combined Cycle -0.0001 -0.0011 -0.0028 -0.0051 -0.0072 -0.0099 -0.0111 

Combustion Turbines -0.0010 -0.0004 0.0017 0.0050 0.0080 0.0118 0.0135 

Nuclear -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 

Renewables -0.0001 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0006 -0.0008 -0.0010 -0.0011 

Total -0.0003 -0.0007 -0.0012 -0.0018 -0.0023 -0.0029 -0.0032 

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Table 14.3.3 Trial Standard Level 2 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.0627 -0.1176 -0.1465 -0.1492 -0.1517 -0.1548 -0.1563 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0100 -0.0259 -0.0449 -0.0743 -0.1004 -0.1340 -0.1498 

Petroleum -0.0008 -0.0010 -0.0004 0.0009 0.0020 0.0035 0.0042 

Gas -0.0593 -0.0951 -0.0904 -0.0543 -0.0223 0.0189 0.0383 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0028 -0.0080 0.0005 0.0082 0.0180 0.0226 

Renewables 0.0118 0.0164 0.0105 -0.0055 -0.0198 -0.0382 -0.0468 

Total -0.0583 -0.1084 -0.1332 -0.1327 -0.1323 -0.1317 -0.1315 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0047 0.0052 0.0019 -0.0045 -0.0102 -0.0175 -0.0209 

Combined Cycle -0.0005 -0.0052 -0.0134 -0.0245 -0.0344 -0.0472 -0.0532 

Combustion Turbines -0.0049 -0.0017 0.0083 0.0241 0.0382 0.0562 0.0647 

Nuclear -0.0003 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0007 -0.0008 -0.0010 -0.0010 

Renewables -0.0005 -0.0013 -0.0021 -0.0029 -0.0037 -0.0046 -0.0050 

Total -0.0015 -0.0036 -0.0059 -0.0086 -0.0110 -0.0140 -0.0154 

Table 14.3.4 Trial Standard Level 3 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.1388 -0.2604 -0.3242 -0.3302 -0.3356 -0.3426 -0.3459 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0222 -0.0574 -0.0993 -0.1644 -0.2221 -0.2965 -0.3315 

Petroleum -0.0017 -0.0022 -0.0010 0.0019 0.0045 0.0078 0.0093 

Gas -0.1312 -0.2106 -0.2000 -0.1202 -0.0494 0.0418 0.0848 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0062 -0.0178 0.0012 0.0181 0.0398 0.0501 

Renewables 0.0260 0.0363 0.0232 -0.0123 -0.0438 -0.0845 -0.1036 

Total -0.1291 -0.2400 -0.2949 -0.2938 -0.2928 -0.2915 -0.2909 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0105 0.0115 0.0041 -0.0100 -0.0225 -0.0387 -0.0463 

Combined Cycle -0.0011 -0.0115 -0.0296 -0.0543 -0.0762 -0.1044 -0.1177 

Combustion Turbines -0.0109 -0.0039 0.0184 0.0534 0.0845 0.1244 0.1433 

Nuclear -0.0006 -0.0010 -0.0014 -0.0016 -0.0019 -0.0022 -0.0023 

Renewables -0.0012 -0.0029 -0.0047 -0.0065 -0.0081 -0.0102 -0.0111 

Total -0.0033 -0.0079 -0.0131 -0.0190 -0.0242 -0.0310 -0.0341 

Table 14.3.5 Trial Standard Level 4 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.2140 -0.4014 -0.4997 -0.5091 -0.5174 -0.5281 -0.5332 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0343 -0.0884 -0.1531 -0.2534 -0.3424 -0.4571 -0.5111 

Petroleum -0.0026 -0.0033 -0.0015 0.0029 0.0069 0.0120 0.0143 

Gas -0.2022 -0.3246 -0.3083 -0.1853 -0.0761 0.0645 0.1307 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0096 -0.0275 0.0019 0.0279 0.0614 0.0772 

Renewables 0.0401 0.0560 0.0358 -0.0189 -0.0676 -0.1302 -0.1597 

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Total -0.1990 -0.3700 -0.4546 -0.4529 -0.4514 -0.4494 -0.4485 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0162 0.0177 0.0064 -0.0154 -0.0347 -0.0596 -0.0713 

Combined Cycle -0.0017 -0.0178 -0.0457 -0.0837 -0.1175 -0.1610 -0.1814 

Combustion Turbines -0.0168 -0.0059 0.0284 0.0823 0.1302 0.1918 0.2209 

Nuclear -0.0009 -0.0016 -0.0021 -0.0025 -0.0029 -0.0033 -0.0036 

Renewables -0.0019 -0.0045 -0.0072 -0.0100 -0.0125 -0.0157 -0.0172 

Total -0.0050 -0.0122 -0.0203 -0.0293 -0.0374 -0.0477 -0.0526 

Table 14.3.6 Trial Standard Level 5 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.2530 -0.4746 -0.5909 -0.6019 -0.6118 -0.6244 -0.6304 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0405 -0.1045 -0.1811 -0.2996 -0.4049 -0.5404 -0.6043 

Petroleum -0.0030 -0.0039 -0.0018 0.0035 0.0081 0.0141 0.0170 

Gas -0.2391 -0.3838 -0.3645 -0.2191 -0.0900 0.0762 0.1546 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0113 -0.0325 0.0022 0.0330 0.0726 0.0913 

Renewables 0.0474 0.0662 0.0424 -0.0224 -0.0799 -0.1540 -0.1888 

Total -0.2353 -0.4374 -0.5375 -0.5355 -0.5337 -0.5314 -0.5303 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0192 0.0209 0.0075 -0.0182 -0.0410 -0.0705 -0.0843 

Combined Cycle -0.0020 -0.0210 -0.0540 -0.0990 -0.1389 -0.1903 -0.2145 

Combustion Turbines -0.0199 -0.0070 0.0336 0.0973 0.1539 0.2268 0.2612 

Nuclear -0.0010 -0.0019 -0.0025 -0.0030 -0.0034 -0.0040 -0.0042 

Renewables -0.0022 -0.0054 -0.0086 -0.0119 -0.0148 -0.0185 -0.0203 

Total -0.0059 -0.0144 -0.0240 -0.0347 -0.0442 -0.0564 -0.0622 

Table 14.3.7 Trial Standard Level 6 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.2789 -0.5231 -0.6513 -0.6635 -0.6743 -0.6883 -0.6948 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0413 -0.1071 -0.1866 -0.3096 -0.4189 -0.5596 -0.6258 

Petroleum -0.0031 -0.0040 -0.0018 0.0036 0.0084 0.0146 0.0175 

Gas -0.2440 -0.3932 -0.3757 -0.2265 -0.0939 0.0767 0.1571 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0117 -0.0336 0.0026 0.0348 0.0762 0.0957 

Renewables 0.0291 0.0339 0.0052 -0.0603 -0.1186 -0.1935 -0.2288 

Total -0.2593 -0.4821 -0.5924 -0.5902 -0.5882 -0.5857 -0.5845 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0211 0.0230 0.0083 -0.0200 -0.0452 -0.0777 -0.0929 

Combined Cycle -0.0022 -0.0232 -0.0595 -0.1091 -0.1531 -0.2098 -0.2365 

Combustion Turbines -0.0219 -0.0077 0.0370 0.1072 0.1697 0.2500 0.2879 

Nuclear -0.0011 -0.0021 -0.0027 -0.0033 -0.0037 -0.0044 -0.0046 

Renewables -0.0024 -0.0059 -0.0094 -0.0131 -0.0163 -0.0204 -0.0224 

Total -0.0065 -0.0159 -0.0264 -0.0382 -0.0487 -0.0622 -0.0686 

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Table 14.3.8 Trial Standard Level 7 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.3392 -0.6362 -0.7921 -0.8069 -0.8201 -0.8371 -0.8451 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0503 -0.1303 -0.2270 -0.3766 -0.5095 -0.6806 -0.7612 

Petroleum -0.0038 -0.0049 -0.0022 0.0043 0.0102 0.0177 0.0213 

Gas -0.2967 -0.4783 -0.4569 -0.2754 -0.1142 0.0932 0.1910 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0142 -0.0408 0.0032 0.0423 0.0926 0.1163 

Renewables 0.0354 0.0412 0.0064 -0.0734 -0.1442 -0.2354 -0.2783 

Total -0.3154 -0.5864 -0.7206 -0.7178 -0.7154 -0.7123 -0.7109 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0257 0.0280 0.0101 -0.0244 -0.0550 -0.0944 -0.1130 

Combined Cycle -0.0027 -0.0282 -0.0724 -0.1327 -0.1862 -0.2551 -0.2876 

Combustion Turbines -0.0267 -0.0094 0.0450 0.1304 0.2064 0.3041 0.3501 

Nuclear -0.0014 -0.0025 -0.0033 -0.0040 -0.0046 -0.0053 -0.0056 

Renewables -0.0029 -0.0072 -0.0115 -0.0159 -0.0198 -0.0249 -0.0272 

Total -0.0080 -0.0193 -0.0321 -0.0465 -0.0592 -0.0756 -0.0834 

14.3.2	 Impacts Related to Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – Trial 

Standard Level 1 

Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts for all beverage vending machine equipment under 

TSL 1, the level that approximately corresponds to the ENERGY STAR Tier 2 rating. The top 

line of Table 14.3.2 shows that under TSL 1, total commercial electricity use in TWh declines by 

0.0131 TWh in 2015 and by 0.0312 TWh in 2030. 

The reductions in total commercial electricity generation (shown as the last line in the 

second panel of the table) are slightly different than the reductions in commercial electricity use 

(shown in the first line of the table). These differences are to due to the net impact of various 

factors at the energy system level. The NEMS model suggests that electricity prices generally 

decline slightly following the implementation of the standard. These price changes lead to very 

small increases in demand for all major end-use sectors (residential, industrial, and commercial). 

In the NEMS-BT commercial sector model, the response to higher electricity prices is modeled 

in two ways. First, the selection of more efficient equipment is prompted when new buildings are 

constructed or when equipment is replaced in existing buildings. Second, a general behavioral 

response to higher prices is modeled via a price elasticity in which a percentage increase in 

prices (x) is reflected by a different percentage reduction in consumption (y). For most 

commercial end uses, this price elasticity (y/x) is approximately -0.15. An offsetting factor at the 

system level, however, is that some changes in generation also reflect transmission and 

distribution losses that respond to higher or lower sales to end users. 

As expected, total generation falls in a nearly continuous fashion with respect to the lower 

electricity demand prompted by the energy conservation standard. However, for the individual 

generation technologies by fuel type, the responses are much more varied. In the long term (e.g., 

by 2030), the NEMS-BT model suggests that there may be significant changes, compared to the 

reference case, between plants serving primarily base load uses (principally coal and nuclear) and 

plants using other fuels. The beverage vending machine energy conservation standards for Class A 

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equipment generally reduce base load (and thus off-peak) electricity demand. This change in the 

load profile reduces the attractiveness of coal and, to a lesser extent, nuclear plants. 

In the near term (through 2020), the NEMS-BT model suggests slightly different 

behavior. Electricity generation from natural gas and coal plants is lower than that in the 

reference case. Nuclear generation is relatively unchanged, reflecting the inability of that 

segment of the industry to adjust quickly to changes in demand. In general, because there is less 

opportunity over the next decade (through 2020) to build new plants and optimize the electricity 

supply system to meet the altered character of the load, other institutional and economic factors 

may be more relevant in how various generating facilities are dispatched. 

The bottom panel of results in Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts on generating capacity by 

type of generation technology. Total generation capacity is lower by about 0.0018 GW in 2030, 

roughly a 0.0002 percent decline from the reference case. 

The components of total capacity are distinguished by type of generation technology rather 

than strictly fuel type. Fossil fuel steam plants are primarily coal fired but include some petroleum 

use. High efficiency, combined-cycle plants and combustion turbines both use natural gas. 

Because coal plants are primarily used to meet base loads, the capacity of this type of 

plant shows a relatively large decline over the next two decades. Compared to the reference case, 

the total generation capacity of coal plants declines (relative to the reference case) throughout the 

forecast period and is lower by about 0.0009 GW by 2030. Nuclear plants, which are also used to 

meet base loads, are projected to see a capacity decline of 0.0002 GW by the same date. 

As opposed to combined cycle power plant capacity, combustion turbine capacity is 

higher than the reference case. Because the overall load profile shows a higher proportion of 

weather-related electricity consumption, combustion turbine capacity in 2030 is about 0.0050 

GW higher than the reference case. Combined cycle plants witness a decline in capacity of 

0.0051 GW as they tend to be slightly less weather-related than combustion turbines. Generation 

capacity from renewables slightly declines by 0.0006 GW. Any comparison between the 

generation and capacity impacts shown in the table is complicated because various types of 

generating plants operate for different numbers of hours during the year. Base load plants such as 

fossil fuel steam and nuclear are relatively comparable, as they operate for roughly the same 

number of hours during the year. Because renewables comprise a number of technologies with 

various operating hours, it is not surprising to see a divergence between the behavior of 

generation and capacity at this aggregate level. 

14.3.3 Results for Trial Standard Levels 2 through 7 for Class A Equipment 

Error! Not a valid bookmark self-reference. through Table 14.3.8 show the estimated 

impacts for TSLs 2–7. Corresponding to TSL 6, Table 14.3.7 shows the impacts associated with 

energy conservation standards selected to match the maximum energy savings level with a net 

present value greater than zero level for Class A beverage vending machine equipment. As shown 

in this table, compared to the reference case, total generation in 2030 would decline by about 

0.5902 TWh. The major reductions in generation occur at coal, nuclear, gas, and renewable energy 

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facilities. Total generation capacity falls by 0.0382 GW relative to the reference case or about 

0.0033 percent. 

In TSL 7, the standards for the Class A beverage vending machine equipment are set to the 

maximum (technologically feasible) level. The impacts from this case are shown in Table 14.3.8. 

In this case, the 2030 impact on total generation is approximately 22 percent greater than that of 

TSL 6, or 0.7178 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.0465 GW, compared to the reference 

case. 

14.3.4	 Results for Class B Equipment 

Results for the various TSLs for Class B Equipment are presented in the tables and 

sections, below. 

14.3.5	 Impacts Related to Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – Trial 

Standard Level 1 

Table 14.3.9 shows the impacts for all commercial refrigeration equipment under TSL 1. 

The top line of Table 14.3.9 shows that under TSL 1, total commercial electricity use declines by 

0.0053 TWh in 2015 and by 0.0126 TWh in 2030. 

Table 14.3.9 Trial Standard Level 1 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.0053 -0.0099 -0.0124 -0.0126 -0.0128 -0.0131 -0.0132 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0009 -0.0022 -0.0038 -0.0062 -0.0084 -0.0112 -0.0125 

Petroleum 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Gas -0.0050 -0.0081 -0.0076 -0.0046 -0.0018 0.0017 0.0033 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0002 -0.0007 0.0001 0.0007 0.0015 0.0019 

Renewables 0.0010 0.0014 0.0009 -0.0005 -0.0017 -0.0032 -0.0039 

Total -0.0049 -0.0092 -0.0112 -0.0112 -0.0112 -0.0111 -0.0111 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0009 -0.0015 -0.0018 

Combined Cycle 0.0000 -0.0004 -0.0011 -0.0021 -0.0029 -0.0040 -0.0045 

Combustion Turbines -0.0004 -0.0001 0.0007 0.0020 0.0032 0.0047 0.0055 

Nuclear 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 

Renewables 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0004 

Total -0.0001 -0.0003 -0.0005 -0.0007 -0.0009 -0.0012 -0.0013 

As with Class A equipment, the reductions in total commercial electricity generation 

(shown as the last line in the second panel of the table) are slightly different than the reductions 

in commercial electricity use (the first line of the table). As expected, total generation falls in a 

nearly continuous fashion with respect to the lower electricity demand prompted by the energy 

conservation standard. However, for the individual generation technologies by fuel type, the 

responses are much more varied. In the long term (e.g., by 2030), the NEMS-BT model suggests 

that there may be significant changes compared to the reference case between plants serving 

primarily base load uses (principally coal and nuclear) and plants using other fuels. The beverage 

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vending machine energy conservation standards for Class B equipment generally reduce base 

load (and thus off-peak) electricity demand. This change in the load profile reduces the 

attractiveness of coal and nuclear plants. 

In the near term (through 2020), the NEMS-BT model suggests slightly different 

behavior. Electricity generation from natural gas plants is somewhat lower than that in the 

reference case. Nuclear generation is relatively unchanged, reflecting the inability of that 

segment of the industry to adjust quickly to changes in demand. In general, because there is less 

opportunity over the next decade (through 2020) to build new plants and optimize the electricity 

supply system to meet the altered character of the load, other institutional and economic factors 

may be more relevant in how various generating facilities are dispatched. 

The bottom panel of results in Table 14.3.9 shows the impacts on generating capacity by 

type of generation technology. Total generation capacity is lower by about 0.0007 GW in 2030, 

roughly a 0.0001 percent decline from the reference case. 

The components of total capacity are distinguished by type of generation technology 

rather than strictly by fuel type. Fossil fuel steam plants are primarily coal fired but also include 

some petroleum use. High efficiency, combined-cycle plants and combustion turbines both use 

natural gas. 

Because coal plants are primarily used to meet base loads, the capacity of this type of 

plant shows a decline over the next two decades. Compared to the reference case, the total 

generation capacity of coal plants declines (relative to the reference case) throughout the forecast 

period and is lower by about 0.0004 GW by 2030. Nuclear plants, which are also used to meet 

base loads, are projected to see a capacity decline of 0.0001 GW by the same date. 

As opposed to combined cycle power plant capacity, combustion turbine capacity is 

higher than the reference case. Because the overall load profile shows a higher proportion of 

weather-related electricity consumption, combustion turbine capacity in 2030 is about 

0.0020 GW higher than the reference case. Combined cycle plants witness a roughly equivalent 

decline in capacity of 0.0021 GW, as they tend to be slightly less weather-related than 

combustion turbines. Generation capacity from renewables slightly declines by 0.0002 GW. Any 

comparison between the generation and capacity impacts shown in the table is complicated 

because various types of generating plants operate for different numbers of hours during the 

year. Base load plants such as fossil fuel steam and nuclear are relatively comparable, as they 

operate for roughly the same number of hours during the year. Because renewables comprise a 

number of technologies with various operating hours, there appears a divergence between the 

behavior of generation and capacity at this aggregate level. 

14.3.6 Results for Trial Standard Levels 2 through 6 for Class B Equipment 

Error! Not a valid bookmark self-reference. through Table 14.3.14 show the estimated 

impacts for TSLs 2–6. Corresponding to TSL 4, Table 14.3.12 shows the impacts associated with 

energy conservation standards selected to maximize energy savings while maintaining a netpresent value that is nearly zero for the Class B beverage vending machine equipment. As shown 

in this table, compared to the reference case, total generation in 2030 would decline by about 

0.0955 TWh. The major reductions in generation occur at coal, gas, and renewable energy 

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facilities. Total generation capacity falls by 0.0062 GW relative to the reference case or about 

0.0005 percent. 

Table 14.3.10 Trial Standard Level 2 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.0079 -0.0147 -0.0184 -0.0187 -0.0190 -0.0194 -0.0196 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0013 -0.0033 -0.0056 -0.0093 -0.0125 -0.0166 -0.0186 

Petroleum 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 

Gas -0.0075 -0.0120 -0.0113 -0.0068 -0.0027 0.0025 0.0050 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0004 -0.0010 0.0001 0.0010 0.0023 0.0029 

Renewables 0.0015 0.0021 0.0013 -0.0007 -0.0025 -0.0048 -0.0059 

Total -0.0073 -0.0136 -0.0167 -0.0166 -0.0166 -0.0165 -0.0165 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0006 0.0006 0.0002 -0.0006 -0.0013 -0.0022 -0.0026 

Combined Cycle -0.0001 -0.0007 -0.0017 -0.0031 -0.0043 -0.0059 -0.0067 

Combustion Turbines -0.0006 -0.0002 0.0010 0.0030 0.0048 0.0070 0.0081 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 

Renewables -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0006 

Total -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0007 -0.0011 -0.0014 -0.0018 -0.0019 

Table 14.3.11 Trial Standard Level 3 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.0395 -0.0740 -0.0921 -0.0939 -0.0954 -0.0974 -0.0983 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0064 -0.0164 -0.0283 -0.0465 -0.0627 -0.0835 -0.0934 

Petroleum -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0001 0.0001 0.0003 0.0006 0.0007 

Gas -0.0376 -0.0602 -0.0569 -0.0340 -0.0137 0.0125 0.0249 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0018 -0.0051 0.0004 0.0053 0.0115 0.0145 

Renewables 0.0075 0.0104 0.0066 -0.0035 -0.0124 -0.0240 -0.0294 

Total -0.0367 -0.0682 -0.0838 -0.0835 -0.0832 -0.0829 -0.0827 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0030 0.0033 0.0012 -0.0028 -0.0064 -0.0110 -0.0131 

Combined Cycle -0.0003 -0.0033 -0.0084 -0.0154 -0.0217 -0.0297 -0.0335 

Combustion Turbines -0.0031 -0.0011 0.0052 0.0152 0.0240 0.0354 0.0407 

Nuclear -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0007 

Renewables -0.0003 -0.0008 -0.0013 -0.0018 -0.0023 -0.0029 -0.0032 

Total -0.0009 -0.0022 -0.0037 -0.0054 -0.0069 -0.0088 -0.0097 

Table 14.3.12 Trial Standard Level 4 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case 

2015 2020 2025 2030 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.0451 -0.0846 -0.1054 -0.1073 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0073 -0.0188 -0.0323 -0.0532 

Extrapolation 

2035 2040 2042 

-0.1091 -0.1114 -0.1124 

-0.0717 -0.0955 -0.1068 

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Petroleum -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0001 0.0001 0.0004 0.0007 0.0008 

Gas -0.0430 -0.0688 -0.0651 -0.0389 -0.0156 0.0143 0.0285 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0020 -0.0058 0.0005 0.0060 0.0132 0.0166 

Renewables 0.0085 0.0119 0.0076 -0.0040 -0.0142 -0.0274 -0.0336 

Total -0.0420 -0.0780 -0.0959 -0.0955 -0.0952 -0.0948 -0.0946 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0034 

Combined Cycle -0.0004 

Combustion Turbines -0.0035 

Nuclear -0.0002 

Renewables -0.0004 

Total -0.0011 

0.0037 

-0.0037 

-0.0013 

-0.0003 

-0.0010 

-0.0026 

0.0013 

-0.0096 

0.0060 

-0.0004 

-0.0015 

-0.0043 

-0.0032 

-0.0177 

0.0174 

-0.0005 

-0.0021 

-0.0062 

-0.0073 

-0.0248 

0.0275 

-0.0006 

-0.0026 

-0.0079 

-0.0126 

-0.0339 

0.0405 

-0.0007 

-0.0033 

-0.0101 

-0.0150 

-0.0383 

0.0466 

-0.0008 

-0.0036 

-0.0111 

Table 14.3.13 Trial Standard Level 5 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.1215 -0.2278 -0.2837 -0.2890 -0.2937 -0.2998 -0.3027 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0196 -0.0505 -0.0871 -0.1432 -0.1930 -0.2572 -0.2874 

Petroleum -0.0005 -0.0007 -0.0004 0.0003 0.0010 0.0018 0.0022 

Gas -0.1158 -0.1853 -0.1753 -0.1047 -0.0420 0.0386 0.0767 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0055 -0.0157 0.0012 0.0162 0.0355 0.0446 

Renewables 0.0230 0.0320 0.0204 -0.0107 -0.0383 -0.0738 -0.0906 

Total -0.1129 -0.2100 -0.2581 -0.2571 -0.2562 -0.2551 -0.2546 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0092 0.0100 0.0036 -0.0087 -0.0197 -0.0338 -0.0405 

Combined Cycle -0.0010 -0.0101 -0.0259 -0.0475 -0.0667 -0.0914 -0.1030 

Combustion Turbines -0.0096 -0.0034 0.0161 0.0467 0.0739 0.1089 0.1254 

Nuclear -0.0005 -0.0009 -0.0012 -0.0014 -0.0016 -0.0019 -0.0020 

Renewables -0.0011 -0.0026 -0.0041 -0.0057 -0.0071 -0.0089 -0.0098 

Total -0.0029 -0.0069 -0.0115 -0.0166 -0.0212 -0.0271 -0.0299 

Table 14.3.14 Trial Standard Level 6 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending 

Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh 

Electricity Sales -0.1353 -0.2537 -0.3159 -0.3218 -0.3271 -0.3338 -0.3370 

U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh 

Coal -0.0218 -0.0562 -0.0970 -0.1595 -0.2150 -0.2864 -0.3201 

Petroleum -0.0005 -0.0007 -0.0004 0.0004 0.0011 0.0020 0.0024 

Gas -0.1290 -0.2064 -0.1952 -0.1166 -0.0468 0.0430 0.0854 

Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0061 -0.0174 0.0014 0.0180 0.0395 0.0497 

Renewables 0.0256 0.0356 0.0227 -0.0119 -0.0427 -0.0822 -0.1009 

Total -0.1258 -0.2339 -0.2874 -0.2863 -0.2853 -0.2841 -0.2835 

Installed Generating Capacity, GW 

Fossil Steam 0.0102 0.0112 0.0040 -0.0097 -0.0219 -0.0377 -0.0451 

Combined Cycle -0.0011 -0.0112 -0.0289 -0.0529 -0.0743 -0.1017 -0.1147 

Combustion Turbines -0.0106 -0.0038 0.0179 0.0520 0.0823 0.1213 0.1396 

Nuclear -0.0006 -0.0010 -0.0013 -0.0016 -0.0018 -0.0021 -0.0023 

Renewables -0.0012 -0.0029 -0.0046 -0.0063 -0.0079 -0.0099 -0.0109 

Total -0.0032 -0.0077 -0.0128 -0.0185 -0.0236 -0.0302 -0.0333 

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Table 14.3.13 shows impacts under TSL 5 for all Class B beverage vending machine 

products considered in this rulemaking. TSL 5 corresponds to an intermediate energy efficiency 

level. In this intermediate case, the 2030 impact on total generation is more than twice than that 

for TSL 4, or 0.2571 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.0166 GW compared to the 

reference case. The cause of this distinctly larger impact is because implementation of LED 

lighting at this TSL level significantly increases projected savings. 

In TSL 6, the standards for the Class B beverage vending machine equipment set to the 

maximum (technologically feasible) level. The impacts from this case are shown in Table 

14.3.14. In this case, the 2030 impact on total generation is approximately 11 percent greater 

than that of TSL 5, or 0.2863 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.0185 GW compared to the 

reference case. 

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REFERENCE 

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. An Updated Annual 

Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery 

and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook. April 2009. 

Washington, D.C. SR/OIAF/2009-03. 

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