–

USDA / AMS Pork Price Reports 

USDA/AMS Pork Webinar 

October 26, 2021 

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 
–

 

 

 

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

AMS Pork Price Reporting 

& 

Sterling Marketing’s Services for Clients 

 Pork cut price forecasts

 Pork cutout

 Pricing strategies to manage procurement price risk

 Pork industry margins

1991 2021 
–

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

Prices Risk management 

Price reporting must be: 

 Accurate

 Timely 

 Transparent

 Accessible

1991 2021 
–

 

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

What is the value of AMS’s Mandatory Price Reporting? 

Price analysis using AMS reported prices 

An Example 

1991 2021 
–

Belly Primal Value

Dollars per cwt 

2014 2019 2020 

2021 2016-2020 Ave. 

250 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 

1/9/21 

2/13/21 

3/20/21 

4/24/21 7/3/21 

5/29/21 

9/11/21 

8/7/21 

11/20/21

10/16/21 12/25/21 

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 
3.50 

2015-2019 Ave. +1 Std Dev -1 Std Dev

3.00 

2.50 

2.00 

1.50 

1.00 

0.50 

0 

Jan 

Feb 

Mar 

Apr 

May 

Jun 

Jul 

Aug 

Sep 

Oct 

Nov 

Dec 

–

Product Ratio – Belly Primal Value / Lean Carcass Value

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 
25% 

20% 

15% 

10% 

5% 

0 

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 

–

Coefficient of Variation – Belly Primal Value / Lean Carcass Value

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 
20% 

15% 

10% 

5% 

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 

0 

–

Coefficient of Variation – Loins (14-18 lb.) 1⁄4” trim / Lean Carcass Value

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 
 

–

Distribution: Pork Primal Values: Belly 

Frequency 

0 

14 

28 

42 

56 

70 

84 

98 

112 

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 

Pork Primal Values: Belly 

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 
–

 

 

 

 

 

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

Price analysis using AMS reported prices 

1. Forecast Supply

2. Forecast Lean Carcass Value

3. Forecast Cut Prices

4. Build the Pork Cutout Value

5. Generate Producer & Packer Margins

6. Evaluate Price Projections

1991 2021 
–

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

Industry Margins 

1991 2021 
2014 2019 2020 

2021 2015 - 19 Ave. 

145 

130 

115 

100 

85 

70 

55 

1/30/21 3/13/21 4/24/21 6/5/21 7/17/21 8/28/21 10/9/21 11/20/21 

1/9/21 2/20/21 4/3/21 5/15/21 6/26/21 8/7/21 9/18/21 10/30/21 12/11/21 

Plant closures = 50% utilization 

40 

1/1/22 

–

Pork Cutout Value 

Dollars per cwt 

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 
–

1/30/21 3/13/21 4/24/21 6/5/21 7/17/21 8/28/21 10/9/21 11/20/21 1/1/22 

2014 

2019 

2020 

2021 

2016 - 2020 Ave. 

140 

120 

100 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

1/9/21 2/20/21 4/3/21 5/15/21 6/26/21 8/7/21 9/18/21 10/30/21 12/11/21 

Lean Carcass Value 

Dollars per cwt 

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 
–

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 

 

200 

180 

160 

140 

120 

100 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

-20

-40

-60

1/30/21 3/13/21 4/24/21 6/5/21 7/17/21 8/28/21 10/9/21 11/20/21 1/1/22 

2019 2020 

2021 2015 - 19 Ave. 

Lowest weekly Sterling estimated packer margin since January 1987 

1/9/21 2/20/21 4/3/21 5/15/21 6/26/21 8/7/21 9/18/21 10/30/21 12/11/21 

Pork Packer Operating Margins

Dollars per head 
–

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 

Hog Producer Breakeven

Dollars per cwt 

85 

80 

75 

70 

65 

60 

55 

50 

1/30/21 3/13/21 4/24/21 6/5/21 7/17/21 8/28/21 10/9/21 11/20/21 1/1/22 

2014 

2019 

2020 

2021 

2022 

2016 - 2020 Ave. 

1/9/21 2/20/21 4/3/21 5/15/21 6/26/21 8/7/21 9/18/21 10/30/21 12/11/21 

hindered expansion 
2014 2019 2020 

2021 2016 - 2020 Ave. 

150 

125 

100 

75 

50 

25 

0 

-25 

-50 

-75 

-100 

1/30/21 3/13/21 4/24/21 6/5/21 7/17/21 8/28/21 10/9/21 11/20/21 1/1/22 

1/9/21 2/20/21 4/3/21 5/15/21 6/26/21 8/7/21 9/18/21 10/30/21 12/11/21 

–

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021 

Hog Producer Margins

Dollars per head 
–

 

 

 

 

Agricultural Marketing Service’s Mandatory Price Reporting provides 

a necessary and valuable service to firms such as Sterling Marketing 

as we analyze and assess specific markets to provide risk 

management advice to our clients including packers, processors, 

chain restaurants, producers, and banks. 

© Sterling Marketing, Inc. 

1991 2021