Grain Truck and Ocean Rate Advisory: 

Quarterly Updates

Transportation and Marketing Program

Transportation Services Division

www.ams.usda.gov/AgTransportation

Table 1: U.S. grain truck market, 4th quarter 2019

 25 miles 100 miles 200 miles Truck availability Truck use

Future truck 

use

1 = Very easy

to

5 = Very difficult

National average2 4.30 2.88 2.71 2.90 3.40 3.30

North Central 4.18 2.86 2.56 3.10 3.40 3.30

Rocky Mountain N A N A N A N A N A N A

South Central 4.13 3.12 3.38 2.30 3.50 3.50

West 3.56 1.78 1.78 3.00 3.00 3.00

East N A N A N A N A N A N A

Figure 1: U.S. grain truck market, 4th quarter 2019

1Average rate per loaded mile, based on truck rates for trips of 25, 100, and 200 miles.

Note: Fuel prices are a quarterly average (unit per gallon).

Source: Fuel price data are from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, and 

availability index data are from USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service.

5 = Much higher

1Rates are based on trucks with 80,000-pound (lb) gross vehicle weight limit, and are quoted in U.S. dollars.

2National average is based on rates received from various States, but not every State is represented.

Truck Advisory

Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service.

1Rate per mile, per truckload

Quarterly Index*

1 = Much lower

to

Note: NA = not available because of low or no response rate. 

*Current and future truck use indices are based on comparison to the same quarter last year.

Average rate: $3.54

Availability index: 2.30

Fuel price: $2.79

Average rate: n/a 

Availability index: 

n/a

Average rate1: $3.20

Availability index: 3.10

Fuel price: $2.93

Average rate: n/a

Availability index: n/a

Fuel price: $2.97

Average rate: $2.38

Availability index: 3.00

Fuel price: $3.60
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 2 February 13, 2019

Table 2: Regional truck use Index*

2017 1st qtr. 2nd qtr. 3rd qtr. 4th qtr. 1st qtr. 2nd qtr. 3rd qtr. 4th qtr.

National 3.00 3.00 3.20 2.90 3.00 2.60 3.40 3.30

North Central 3.20 3.00 3.40 2.70 3.20 2.80 3.40 3.20

Rocky Mountain NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

South Central 2.90 2.70 2.50 3.00 2.80 2.50 3.00 3.40

West NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

2018 1st qtr. 2nd qtr. 3rd qtr. 4th qtr. 1st qtr. 2nd qtr. 3rd qtr. 4th qtr.

National 2.70 3.40 3.14 3.10 3.00 3.60 3.60 3.10

North Central 2.60 3.83 2.50 3.00 3.10 4.00 3.00 3.10

Rocky Mountain NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

South Central 3.00 2.50 3.10 3.30 2.50 2.50 3.50 3.00

West NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

2019 1st qtr. 2nd qtr. 3rd qtr. 4th qtr. 1st qtr. 2nd qtr. 3rd qtr. 4th qtr.

National 3.40 3.04 3.45 3.40 3.60 3.41 2.92 3.30

North Central 3.20 2.88 3.57 3.40 3.30 3.53 2.33 3.30

Rocky Mountain NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

South Central 3.80 3.25 3.50 3.50 4.00 3.50 2.33 3.50

West NA 3.00 3.00 3.00 NA 3.50 3.50 3.00

East NA 3.67 NA NA NA 2.67 NA NA

*Current and future truck use indices are based on comparison to the same quarter last year.

Note: NA = not available; qtr. = quarter. Current and future truck use indices are based on comparison to the same 

quarter last year.

Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service.

Figure 2: National truck usage, 4th quarter 2019

Note: Q = quarter; avg. = average; Nat. = national; N. = north; S. = south; NA = not available.

Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service.

Truck Use

Future truck use

1 = Much lower to 5 = Much higher 1 = Much lower to 5 = Much higher

Current truck use

1

2

3

4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

National North Central South Central West East

Index value

1 = Much lower to 5 = Much higher 3rd quarter 2019 % change from: Nat. avg. N. Central S. Central West East

Last quarter -1 -5 0 0 NA 

Last year 10 13 6 NA N A
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 3 February 13, 2019

Table 3: Quarterly national truck availability index

Region 1 = Very easy 5 = Very difficult

4th quarter 

2019

Previous 

quarter

Same quarter 

last year

National 2.90 2.92 2.80

North Central 3.10 3.00 3.00

South Central 2.30 2.67 2.30

West 3.00 3.00 NA

East n/a NA NA

Note: NA = not available.

Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service.

Figure 3: National truck availability

Truck Availability

Previous quarter

Same quarter last 

year

Current quarter as % change from

-1

The truck availability index tracks the trends in perceived ease of hiring a truck as reported by grain 

elevators.

3

-14

4

3

0

NA NA

NA NA

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Index value

1 = Very easy to 5 = Very difficult

National North Central South Central West East

4th quarter 2019 % change from: Nat. avg. N. Central S. Central West East

Last quarter -1 3 -14 0 NA

Last year 4 3 0 NA NA

Note: NA = not available; Q = quarter; N. = north; S. = south; Nat. = national; avg. = average.

Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service.
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 4 February 13, 2019 25 mi 100 mi 200 mi 25 mi 100 mi 200 mi

National average $4.30 $2.88 $2.71 -1.6% -1.0% -3.9% -12.8% -6.2% -10.0%

North Central $4.18 $2.86 $2.56 -11.3% 24.9% 15.3% -19.5% -5.3% -16.9%

Rocky Mountain NA NA NA - - - - - -

South Central $4.13 $3.12 $3.38 4.6% -6.3% 9.0% -4.6% -1.6% 0.0%

West $3.56 $1.78 $1.78 -7.3% -44.4% -43.3% - - -

East NA NA NA - - - - - -

Note: NA = not available; qtr. = quarter.

Rates are based on trucks with 80,000-pound (lb) gross vehicle weight limit.

Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service.

 per truckload.

Figure 4: National average truck rates by trip distance

Truck Rates

 A truck is assumed to carry 55,000 lbs or 25 metric tons of grain. Rates per metric ton per mile can be calculated from rates 

Last qtr. Same qtr. last year

% change from:

Region 25 miles 100 miles 200 miles

Table 4 : Average grain truck rates for short and long hauls, 4th quarter 2019 ($/mile per truckload)

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rate (dollar per mile, per truckload)

25 mi 200 mi 100 mi

4th quarter 2019 % change from: 25 mi 100 mi 200 mi 

Last quarter -1.6 -1.0 -3.9 

Last year -12.8 -6.2 -10.8

Note:Q = quarter.

Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service.
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 5 February 13, 2019

The diesel fuel price provides a proxy for trends in U.S. truck rates. Diesel fuel is a 

significant expense for grain movements.

Figure 5: U.S. average on-highway diesel fuel prices

Note: Q = quarter.

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration.

Table 5: 4th quarter 2019 average diesel fuel prices (all types - $/gallon)

Last qtr. Same qtr. last year

East Coast 3.05 0.01 -0.22

 New England 3.06 -0.02 -0.26

 Central Atlantic 3.24 0.02 -0.20

 Lower Atlantic 2.92 0.01 -0.22

Midwest 2.97 0.04 -0.22

Gulf Coast 2.79 0.00 -0.25

Rocky Mountain 3.15 0.18 -0.17

West Coast 3.68 0.08 -0.07

 California 3.96 0.03 -0.03

U.S. 3.06 0.04 -0.20

Note: qtr. = quarter

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration.

Location Price Change from

U.S. Diesel Fuel Prices

2.07

2.30

2.38

2.47 2.57

2.55

2.63

2.87

3.02

3.19

3.24 3.26

3.02

3.12

3.02

3.06

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016 2017 2018 2019

$/gallon

U.S. diesel prices are up 1% 

from last quarter and down 6%

from the same quarter 

last year.
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 6 February 13, 2019 Country

1st qtr. 

2018

2nd qtr. 

2018

3rd qtr. 

2018 

4th qtr. 

2018 Average

1st qtr. 

2019

2nd qtr. 

2019

3rd qtr. 

2019

4th qtr. 

2019 Average

Japan 44.27 43.68 45.13 48.46 45.39 40.85 42.78 50.05 48.26 45.49

Rotterdam 16.82 20.67 21.06 20.83 19.85 16.73 16.62 20.21 19.02 18.15

China 43.41 42.69 44.05 47.52 44.42 39.61 42.20 49.35 47.05 44.55

Mexico 13.97 14.07 14.68 15.63 14.59 13.89 14.01 15.50 15.23 14.66

Colombia: Atlantic Port (East) 19.77 19.64 20.02 21.28 20.18 19.75 19.99 21.13 19.74 20.15

Colombia: Pacific Ports (West) 28.01 28.15 28.64 29.95 28.69 29.38 29.10 29.02 32.01 29.88

Country

1st qtr. 

2018

2nd qtr. 

2018

3rd qtr. 

2018 

4th qtr. 

2018 Average

1st qtr. 

2019

2nd qtr. 

2019

3rd qtr. 

2019 

4th qtr. 

2019 Average

Japan 24.25 24.37 24.97 26.69 25.07 22.98 23.56 27.90 26.28 25.18

China 23.40 23.72 24.26 25.97 24.34 22.44 22.93 27.28 25.71 24.59

Note: qtr. = quarter; PNW = Pacific Northwest.

Source: O'Neil Commodity Consulting.

`

Figure 6: Grain vessel rates and spread, U.S. to Japan

Note: Q = quarter; PNW = Pacific Northwest.

Source: O'Neil Commodity Consulting.

Table 6: Ocean shipping rates for bulk grain ($/metric ton)

U.S. Gulf to

PNW to 

Ocean Rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1 Q2 Q 3 Q4 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Q 4 Q1 Q 2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Q 4 Q1 Q 2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 Q2 Q 3 Q4 Q1 Q 2 Q3 Q 4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

U.S$/metric ton

Spread U.S. Gulf to Japan PNW to Japan

4th quarter 2019 ocean rates % change from: U.S. Gulf PNW Spread

Last quarter -3.6 -6.0 -0.8 

Last year 0.0 -2.0 1.0
Grain Transportation Quarterly Updates 7 February 13, 2019

USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.

Surajudeen Olowolayemo

Economist

Surajudeen.Olowolayemo@usda.gov 202.720.0119

April Taylor

Economist

April.Taylor@usda.gov

202.720.7880

Brian McGregor

Agricultural Marketing 

Specialist

Brian.McGregor@usda.gov 202.720.0035

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