APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 10A­1

10A.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ..................................................................... 10A­1

10A.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.............................................................................. 10A­5

10A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS..................................................................................... 10A­7

10A.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ..................................................................... 10A­7

10A.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.............................................................................. 10A­8

10A­i
APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION

The results obtained for the shipments analysis and the national impact analysis (NIA)

can be examined and reproduced using the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S.

Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies website at:

http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/.

There are two NIA spreadsheets: one spreadsheet for general service fluorescent lamps

(GSFL), one incandescent reflector lamps (IRL). The two spreadsheets posted on the DOE

website represent the latest versions and have been tested with Microsoft Excel 2003.

To execute the spreadsheet requires Microsoft Excel 2003 or a later version. The NIA

spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the national energy savings (NES) (i.e., the change

in national energy use from the base to standards cases), and the net present value (NPV) due to

an energy conservation standard. The energy use and associated costs for a given candidate

standard level (CSL) are determined first by calculating the shipments and then calculating the

energy use and costs for all products shipped under that CSL. The differences between the

standards and base cases can then be compared and the overall NES and NPV determined.

10A.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

The NIA spreadsheet that models commercial sector GSFL consists of the following

worksheets:

Input and Summary Contains user input selections under “User Inputs” and a

summary table of the cumulative NES and NPV for 4­foot

medium bipin sockets, 8­foot single pin slimline sockets,

and 8­foot recessed double contact high output sockets

under “National Impacts Summary” for the selected CSL.

Graphs Contains base­case and standards­case shipment and NPV

graphs.

Data Tables Contains data tables for NPV calculations, shipments,

energy consumption, lamp stock, and lumen output.

Comm. Market­Share Matrices Contains the user selected market­share matrices

(technology mix of shipments) of 4­foot medium bipin and

8­foot single pin slimline lamp and lamp­and­ballast

shipments in the commercial sector.

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Ind. Market­Share Matrices Contains the user­selected (either shift, roll­up, or custom)

market­share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 8­

foot recessed double contact high output lamp and lampand­ballast shipments in the industrial sector.

Comm. Custom Inputs Used to allow the user to input custom market­share

matrices for 4­foot medium bipin lamps and 8­foot single

pin slimline lamps.

Ind. Custom Inputs Used to allow the user to input custom market­share

matrices for 8­foot recessed double contact high output

lamps.

Assumptions Documents various assumptions made in the commercial

and industrial sector models.

Average System Characteristics Calculates the average shipped system characteristics (e.g.

lamp price, input power, lumen output) from the marketshare matrices.

Initial Stock Calculation Calculates the initial stocks of 4­foot medium bipin, 8­foot

single pin slimline, and 8­foot recessed double contact high

output lamps from historical shipments and shipment

projections. The sheet also calculates the slope of the age

distribution for fluorescent systems from historical lamp

shipments and ballast shipment census data.

4­foot MBP Initial Ballast Stock Performs the calculations of lamp replacement shipments

on all 4­foot medium bipin ballasts in the installed base in

2011 for the base case and standards case. The sheet starts

with the stock accounting of the lamp­and­ballast systems

and uses the ballast lifetime and retrofit rate to calculate the

surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations

of lamp replacements based on the lamp replacement

schedule. Finally, using average system properties as

determined by the market­share matrices, the sheet then

calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and

operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each

year.

4­foot MBP New Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of 4­foot medium bipin

lamp­and­ballast system shipments after 2011 and all lamp

replacements on this installed ballast base in the base case

and standards case. The sheet starts by calculating new

lamp­and­ballast system shipments due to new construction

10A­2
in the commercial sector. It also calculates ballast

replacements due to failure or retrofitting of ballasts

tracked in the 4­foot MBP Initial Ballast Stock and 4­foot

MBP New Ballast Stock worksheets. The sheet tracks

these shipments and uses the ballast lifetime to calculate

the surviving stock in each year. It then performs

calculations of lamp replacements on this ballast stock

based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using

average system properties as determined by the marketshare matrices, the sheet then calculates energy

consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this

installed stock of ballasts for each year.

8­foot SP Initial Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of lamp replacement

shipments on all 8­foot single pin slimline ballasts in the

installed base in 2011 for the base case and standards case.

The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the lamp and

ballast systems and uses the ballast lifetime and retrofit rate

to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then

performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the

lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system

properties as determined by the market­share matrices, the

sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost,

and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for

each year.

8­foot SP New Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of 8­foot single pin

slimline lamp­and­ballast system shipments after 2011 and

all lamp replacements on this installed ballast base in the

base case and standards case. In addition this sheet

performs calculations of 4­foot medium bipin lamp­andballast system shipments after 2011 to replace some retired

or retrofitted 8­foot T12 single pin slimline ballasts. The

sheet calculates ballast replacements due to failure or

retrofitting of ballasts tracked in the 8­foot SP Initial

Ballast Stock and 8­foot SP New Ballast Stock sheets. The

sheet tracks these shipments and uses the ballast lifetime to

calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs

calculations of lamp replacements on this ballast stock

based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using

average system properties as determined by the marketshare matrices, the sheet then calculates energy

consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this

installed stock of ballasts for each year.

10A­3
8­foot HO Initial Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of lamp replacement

shipments on all 8­foot recessed double contact HO ballasts

in the installed base in 2011 for the base case and standards

case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the lamp

and ballast systems and uses the ballast lifetime and retrofit

rate to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then

performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the

lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system

properties as determined by the market­share matrices, the

sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost,

and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for

each year.

8­foot HO New Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of 8­foot recessed double

contact HO lamp­and­ballast system shipments after 2011

and all lamp replacements on this installed ballast base in

the base case and standards case. The sheet calculates

ballast replacements due to failure of ballasts tracked in the

8­foot HO Initial Ballast Stock and 8­foot HO New Ballast

Stock sheets. The sheet tracks these shipments and uses the

ballast lifetime to calculate the surviving stock in each year.

It then performs calculations of lamp replacements on this

ballast stock based on the lamp replacement schedule.

Finally, using average system properties as determined by

the market­share matrices, the sheet then calculates energy

consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this

installed stock of ballasts for each year.

Equipment Prices Contains the end­user product prices and installation labor

costs of lamps and ballasts. This worksheet also contains

price scaling factors for the lifetimes used in the model.

Electricity Prices Contains projected average electricity for the three

economic scenarios.

Heat Rates Contains the site­to­source conversion factors that are used

in the source energy savings calculations for electricity.

Lamp Replacement Schedule Contains the schedule for lamp replacement by year of

ballast life. The sheet also tracks the end of life of lamps

installed prior to 2012.

10A­4
10A.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

The NIA spreadsheet that models residential and commercial sector IRL consists of the

following worksheets:

Input and Summary Contains user input selections under “User Inputs” and a

summary table of the cumulative NES and NPV for

commercial and residential incandescent reflector lamps

(IRL) under “National Impacts Summary” for the selected

CSL.

IRL Plots Contains base­case and standards­case shipment, stock,

lumen output, and NPV graphs.

IRL Data Tables Contains data tables for NPV calculations, shipments,

energy consumption, lamp stock, and lumen output.

Mrkt Shre Mtrx­Scen. Choice Contains the market­share matrices (technology mix of

stock) of IRL and CFL in the commercial and residential

sector. These market share matrices reflect the scenario

chosen by the user (Main, 65W BR Lamp Substitution, 10

percent Lumen Increase, and User Input). This page also

shows the breakdown among the baseline models as well as

the percentage of IRL going to CFLs or other emerging

technologies in the base and standards case. Average lamp

characteristics in the base and standards case in the

commercial and residential sectors is also given.

Mrkt Shre Mtrx­Main Scenario Contains the market­share matrices (technology mix of

stock) of commercial and residential IRL under the Main

Scenario.

Mrkt Shre Mtrx­65W BR Lamp Sub Contains the market­share matrices (technology mix

of stock) of commercial and residential IRL under the 65W

BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity.

Mrkt Shre Mtrx­10% Lumen Inc Contains the market­share matrices (technology mix of

stock) of commercial and residential IRL under the 10

percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity.

Mrkt Shre Mtrx­User Input Used to allow the user to input custom market­share

matrices for commercial and residential IRL.

Assumptions Documents various assumptions made in the commericial

and residential sector IRL model.

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Base Case

Standards Case IRL

Standards Case CFL

Calculates IRL lamp replacement shipments in the

commercial and residential sector in the base case. The

sheet starts with the stock of covered commercial and

residential IRL in 2011 and grows that stock according to a

specified growth rate. It then divides that stock among

different lamp lifetimes as determined by the market­share

matrices and performs calculations of lamp replacements

based on the retirement schedule. Finally, using average

system properties for each lamp lifetime as determined by

the market­share matrices, the sheet calculates energy

consumption, equipment cost, and operating costs of IRL in

the commercial and residential sectors.

Calculates IRL lamp replacement shipments in the

commercial and residential sector in the standards case.

The stock of covered IRL and additional reflector CFL in

the standards case is equal to the stock of covered IRL in

the base case multiplied by 1 plus the installed stock

adjustment percentage chosen by the user. Based on the

user­selected market share matrices, this sheet divides the

stock among different lamp lifetimes and performs

calculations of lamp replacements based on the retirement

schedule. Finally, using average system properties for each

lamp lifetime as determined by the market­share matrices,

the sheet calculates energy consumption, equipment cost,

and operating costs of IRL in the commercial and

residential sectors in the standards case.

Calculates additional reflector CFL lamp replacement

shipments in the standards case residential sector. The

stock of covered IRL and additional reflector CFL in the

standards case is equal to the stock of covered IRL in the

base case multiplied by 1 plus the installed stock

adjustment percentage chosen by the user. Based on the

residential user­selected market share matrices, this sheet

divides the stock among IRL and CFL and performs

calculations of lamp replacements for reflector CFLs based

on the retirement schedules for reflector CFLs at five

different operating hours. Finally, using average system

properties for CFLs as determined by the market­share

matrices, the sheet calculates energy consumption,

equipment cost, and operating costs of IRL in the

commercial and residential sectors in the standards case.

10A­6
Intial Stock and Proj. Ship. Projects shipments of covered IRL from 2006 to 2011 in

order to calculate the initial (2011) stock of covered IRL in

the commercial and residential sectors. The affect of EISA

2007 is taken into account in these projections.

Historical Shipments Contains the total historical shipments of IRL from 2001 to

2005 as well as shipments of IRL in the commercial and

residential sector.

Electricity Prices Contains projected average electricity for the three

economic scenarios.

Heat Rates Contains the site­to­source conversion factors that are used

in the source energy savings calculations for electricity.

Retirement Schedules Contains the percentage of lamps retiring in each year of

life for each lamp lifetime used in the model.

10A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS

10A.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheets for GSFL are as follows:

1. Once you have downloaded the NIA spreadsheet file from the Web, open the file using

Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the worksheet Input and Summary.

2. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top menu bar to change the size of the display

to make it fit your monitor.

3. The user can change the model parameters listed in the grey box labelled “User Inputs”.

The parameters are:

a. CSL: To change the value, use the drop­down arrow and select the desired CSL

for each lamp type. Though T12 and T8 lamps are considered to be in the same

product class, this spreadsheet allows separate CSLs to be set for each.

b. Electricity Price Trend: To change the value, use the drop­down arrow and

select the desired Growth level (Reference, Low, or High).

c. Discount Rate: To change the value, use the drop­down arrow and select the

desired Discount Rate (3% or 7%).

d. Year to Discount To: To change the value, type in the desired year.

e. Commercial Sector Lumen Growth: To change the value, type in the

percentage annual lumen growth.

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f. Include 8­foot Lumen Growth: To change the value, use the drop­down arrow

and select Yes or No.

g. Base­Case Retrofit Rate: To change the value, type in the desired percentage

annual Base­Case Retrofit Rate for each lamp type.

h. Standards­Case Retrofit Rate: To change the value, type in the desired

percentage annual Standards­Case Retrofit Rate for each lamp type.

i. Shipment Scenario: To change the value, use the drop­down arrow and select the

desired shipment scenario (shift, roll­up, or custom). If custom is chosen then

click the hyperlinks to the ""Comm. Custom Inputs"" and ""Ind. Custom Inputs""

worksheets to populate the market­share matrices.

4. The results are automatically updated and are reported for each product class in the

“National Impact Summary” table. Results are also updated in the "Graphs" and "Data

Tables" worksheets.

10A.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheet for IRL are as follows:

1. Once the NIA spreadsheet has been downloaded from the Web, open the file using Excel.

At the bottom, click on the tab for the worksheet Input and Summary.

2. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top menu bar to change the size of the display

to make it fit your monitor.

3. The user can change the model parameters listed in the grey box labelled “User Inputs”.

The parameters are:

a. CSL: To change the value, use the drop­down arrow and select the desired CSL

for IRL.

b. Shipment Scenario: To change the value, use the drop­down arrow and select the

desired shipment scenario (Main Scenario, 65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity, 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity). If user input is chosen, click

the hyperlinks to populate custom market­share matrices.

c. Electricity Price Trend: To change the value, use the drop­down arrow and

select the desired Growth level (Reference, Low, or High).

d. Discount Rate: To change the value, use the drop­down arrow to select the

desired discount rate (3% or 7%).

e. Year to Discount To: To change the value, type in the desired year.

f. % Growth Residential (lamp stock): To change the value, type in the desired

percentage of growth for the residential lamp stock.

g. % Growth Commercial (lamp stock): To change the value, type in the desired

percentage of growth for the commercial lamp stock.

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h. IRL installed stock adjustment (stnds case): To change the value, type in the

desired percentage stock adjustment for the standards case.

4. The results are automatically updated and are reported for each product class in the

“National Impact Summary” table. Results are also updated in the "Graphs" and "Data

Tables" worksheets.

10A­9