FAPRI-MU Biofuel Baseline

March 2013

FAPRI-MU Report #02-13

Providing objective analysis for more than 25 years
Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri 

(MU), 101 Park DeVille Drive, Suite E; Columbia, MO 65203. FAPRI–MU is part of the Division of 

Applied Social Sciences (DASS) in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources (CAFNR).

http://www.fapri.missouri.edu

This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement 

No. 58-0111-12-003 and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

under Agreement No. 2008-38420-18747. 

Any opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the 

authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture nor the University 

of Missouri.

This report was prepared by Jarrett Whistance (jwxbb@mail.missouri.edu) and Wyatt Thompson 

(thompsonw@missouri.edu) at FAPRI-MU.

The authors would like to thank participants in a workshop reviewing a preliminary version of these 

estimates in Washington, DC, in December 2012 and in St. Louis, Missouri, in January 2013. Any 

remaining errors are those of the authors.

Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the authors and 

FAPRI–MU. 

The University of Missouri–Columbia does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, 

sexual orientation, age, disability or status as a qualified protected veteran. For more information, call Human 

Resource Services at 573-882-4256 or the US Department of Education, Office of Civil Rights.
1

Executive Summary

This report takes a closer look at the biofuels portion of the U.S. Agricultural and Biofuels Baseline 

released by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU). The 

FAPRI-MU baseline is a ten-year projection of market prices and quantities using information available in 

January 2013. The relevant markets in this report include those for ethanol, biodiesel, Renewable Identification 

Numbers (RINs), and biofuel feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. 

As evidenced by sharply higher conventional RIN prices, the results indicate the blend wall quickly 

becomes a major issue that persists throughout the projection period. Although several factors contribute to the

result, chief among them appears to be declining motor gasoline consumption as oil prices rise and cars become 

more fuel efficient over time. Less overall fuel use means less ethanol can be used in fuel with 10% ethanol (E10). 

In order to meet the increasing Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) requirements, more ethanol must be consumed 

in mid- and high-level ethanol blended fuels (i.e. E15 and E85). Ethanol prices fall dramatically relative to 

gasoline in order to encourage infrastructure development and consumer adoption for those fuels. 

Cellulosic ethanol production is projected to grow at a modest rate but continues to remain well below the 

levels intended by RFS2.The baseline assumes the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) continues to reduce 

the RFS2 requirement for cellulosic biofuels to the level of production, but also reduces the broader advanced and 

overall RFS2 requirements beginning in 2014. The implication is that the EPA reduces the overall biofuel 

requirement by up to the same amount as the cellulosic shortfall, whereas the EPA could opt to leave the broader 

mandates unchanged so that the cellulosic shortfall must be made up by greater use of other biofuels.

Two-way ethanol trade with Brazil continues throughout the projection period. Imported sugarcane 

ethanol from Brazil remains the primary way to meet the RFS2 requirement for advanced biofuels. As the 

mandate grows, ethanol imports rise accordingly. Higher imports of sugarcane ethanol leave open the possibility 

for greater exports of corn ethanol. 

Biodiesel production is projected to expand beyond the RFS2 requirements, which are assumed to remain 

steady at the 2013 level of 1.28 billion gallons. In the baseline, biodiesel competes with sugarcane ethanol imports 

from Brazil to help fill the RFS2 mandate for advanced biofuels as shown by the convergence of biodiesel and 

advanced RIN prices over the course of the projection period. The results also reflect a shift in the composition of 

biodiesel feedstocks slightly away from soybean oil and toward other oils, including corn oil. Non-food grade 

corn oil becomes increasingly available for both biodiesel and feed uses as more dry-mill ethanol producers 

extract corn oil from distillers grains. 

Baseline results presented in this report are averages of many possible market outcomes given uncertainty 

about petroleum prices, crop yields, and other factors. The underlying ranges of some quantities and prices, 

including RIN prices, are found to be sensitive to market conditions.
2

Overview

Recently, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU) released 

its annual baseline projections for agricultural and biofuel markets.1 The baseline was prepared in January 2013 

according to available market information at the time. Policy assumptions generally follow those of the 

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) its baseline projections, namely that current policy continues over the 10-

year projection period. The retroactive and one-year extension of the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blender credit and the 

one-year extension of the $1.01/gallon second-generation biofuel producer credit were both accounted for in the

baseline. The baseline assumes both of those tax credits expire, as legislated, at the end of 2013. Macroeconomic 

assumptions are based on projections by IHS Global Insight in January 2013. As in the earlier report, the results 

presented here are the average of 500 alternative outcomes based on different assumptions regarding weather, oil 

prices and other factors. Prices, quantities and values in any individual outcome may be much higher or lower 

than the averages that are presented. 

The purpose of this report is to provide a more in-depth look at the biofuel market results. In addition to the 

biofuel results in the previous release, this report covers a detailed look at how we assume the Environmental 

Protection Agency (EPA) uses its authority to reduce the cellulosic and, by extension, the advanced and overall 

Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) requirements. This report also includes estimates of Renewable Identification 

Number (RIN) availability, RIN values, and overall RFS2 compliance costs. 

Some of the key highlights include:

1) The results depend, in large part, on our waiver implementation assumption. Each year of RFS2 so 

far, the EPA has waived, or reduced, the cellulosic RFS2 requirement from the legislated level to a level 

the EPA estimates to be obtainable. At the same time, the EPA has left the broader advanced and overall 

RFS2 requirements unchanged. The baseline assumes a pace of cellulosic biofuel technology growth that 

falls short of the RFS2 targets, and that the EPA continues to waive the cellulosic mandate to the level of 

actual production. However, we assume the EPA begins waiving the advanced and overall mandates in 

2014. The biomass-based diesel requirement remains unaffected, and we assume it is held steady at 1.28 

billion gallons in the years beyond 2013.

 

1

See www.fapri.missouri.edu. Note: Differences occur between this report and FAPRI-MU #01-13 as we have discovered, 

and corrected, an error in our handling of E15 use and its implications for the potential E10 market. The effects of this 

correction on market prices and quantities are small.
3

2) The “blend wall” appears more pressing than in previous baselines. Declining motor gasoline 

consumption in the medium term makes it more difficult to meet the overall RFS2 requirement by further 

limiting the amount of ethanol that can be consumed in low-level (E10) ethanol blends. Assuming the 

RFS2 continues to be enforced, more ethanol must be consumed in mid-level (E15) and high-level (E85) 

blends to overcome the blend wall. 

3) The effective retail price of ethanol falls well below the energy equivalent price relative to unleaded

gasoline. Ethanol prices below energy equivalence, an ethanol-gasoline price ratio of about two-thirds, 

encourage wider adoption of mid- and high-level blends. A key uncertainty is the length of time such low 

retail ethanol prices would need to persist. In these projections, the prices remain low to stimulate 

additional E15 and E85 use each year.

4) RIN prices rise sharply before holding steady through the projection period as the blend wall 

becomes more pressing and RFS2 requirements become harder to meet. Conventional RINs rise to 

around $0.80 per RIN. Biodiesel and advanced RINs converge around $1.40 per RIN. Their behavior 

indicates that biodiesel is competitive with sugarcane ethanol imports from Brazil as a way of meeting the 

RFS2 mandate for advanced biofuels. The overall cost of complying with the RFS2 rises along with RIN 

prices, and those costs are assumed to be passed on to all motor fuel consumers. In light of recent market 

developments, our conventional RIN price projections for 2012/13 are likely to be too low, but concerns 

about the blend wall are playing out in the market much as we would anticipate.

5) Biodiesel use expands beyond RFS2 requirements and might compete in the broader advanced 

requirement. Soybean oil is the largest feedstock for biodiesel production throughout the projection 

period. Corn oil becomes much more popular than in the past as more dry-mill ethanol producers extract 

corn oil and increase its availability as a biodiesel feedstock. The first small levels of cellulosic diesel

production appear in this baseline, but all of it is used to meet the cellulosic biofuel requirement rather 

than the biomass-based diesel requirement. 

6) RIN prices and other variables are sensitive to conditions. All the data presented here are averages of 

the 500 simulations. Each simulation is distinguished by its own assumption about petroleum price, crop 

yield variations, and other factors. The RIN price ranges are wide in this baseline, with many outcomes 

represented, including biodiesel use exceeding its mandate to help meet the broader advanced mandate, 

sugarcane ethanol competing with corn ethanol for the overall mandate, and the overall mandate not 

binding with conventional RIN prices falling to zero in some instances.
4

Ethanol supply and use

September-August year 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23

Petroleum fuel prices (Dollars per barrel)

 Petroleum, W. Texas interm. 91.15 87.39 83.15 84.93 89.46 93.90 98.26 101.83 105.16 108.50 110.33

 Petroleum, refiners' acquis. 94.48 87.21 82.27 83.77 87.83 91.61 95.37 98.51 101.36 104.19 105.83

(Dollars per gallon)

 Unl. gasoline, FOB Omaha 2.85 2.62 2.50 2.54 2.64 2.74 2.83 2.91 2.98 3.05 3.10

 Unleaded gasoline, retail 3.43 3.24 3.15 3.18 3.29 3.41 3.52 3.61 3.69 3.77 3.83

Motor gasoline use* 133,756 134,452 136,062 137,279 137,417 136,824 135,664 134,142 132,447 130,645 128,852

Ethanol supply and use

 Production 12,631 14,622 15,436 15,669 15,954 16,443 16,847 17,270 17,665 17,961 18,343

 From corn 12,407 14,388 15,108 15,247 15,272 15,371 15,341 15,384 15,433 15,397 15,348

 Other conventional 215 214 229 248 261 270 275 283 290 295 300

 Cellulosic 9 2 1 9 8 173 421 803 1,231 1,603 1,942 2,269 2,695

 Imports 705 353 783 794 974 1,248 1,587 1,618 1,488 1,664 1,674

 Domestic disappearance 12,972 14,235 15,617 15,991 16,411 17,071 17,783 18,256 18,521 18,977 19,391

 In 10% and lower blends 12,785 12,848 12,440 12,433 12,360 12,101 11,792 11,506 11,244 10,932 10,615

 In mid level blends 5 8 693 1,962 2,178 2,261 2,572 2,796 2,925 3,011 3,136 3,293

 In higher level blends 130 695 1,215 1,380 1,790 2,398 3,195 3,825 4,267 4,909 5,483

 Exports 491 619 558 462 502 596 630 610 610 631 606

Ending stocks 686 807 851 861 876 901 922 943 965 982 1,002

Ethanol prices (Dollars per gallon)

 Conventional rack, Omaha 2.33 2.04 2.02 2.08 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.19 2.20 2.19 2.21

 AMS spot plant price, Iowa 2.21 1.94 1.92 1.97 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.07 2.08 2.07 2.09

 Cellulosic rack 3.92 3.19 3.31 3.43 3.53 3.63 3.69 3.68 3.69 3.72 3.74

 Other advanced rack 2.63 2.46 2.51 2.49 2.57 2.68 2.75 2.77 2.77 2.79 2.79

 Effective retail 2.80 1.97 1.87 2.00 2.02 2.02 2.05 2.08 2.12 2.12 2.13

 Ethanol/gasoline retail 82% 61% 60% 63% 61% 59% 58% 58% 58% 56% 56%

RIN values

 Conventional ethanol 0.12 0.69 0.80 0.73 0.74 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.78 0.78 0.81

 Advanced ethanol 0.41 1.11 1.28 1.14 1.20 1.34 1.39 1.39 1.35 1.38 1.39

 Cellulosic ethanol 0.69 1.50 2.08 2.08 2.17 2.28 2.33 2.30 2.28 2.31 2.34

*includes fuel ethanol

(Million gallons)

Biofuel policies

Calendar year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Renewable Fuel Standard (Million gallons)

(as applied with waivers) 15,200 16,550 16,742 18,135 18,425 19,045 20,003 20,806 21,060 21,733 23,042

 Advanced biofuels 2,000 2,750 2,342 3,135 3,425 4,045 5,003 5,806 6,060 6,733 8,042

 Cellulosic biofuel 9 3 5 8 0 167 304 601 1,003 1,417 1,782 2,122 2,486

 Biodiesel 1,000 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280

Tax credits and tariffs (Dollars per gallon)

Conventional ethanol credit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Biodiesel credit 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Ethanol specific duty 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cellulosic producers credit 1.01 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(Percent)

Ethanol ad-valorem tariff 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
5

Corn processing

September-August year 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23

Corn food and industrial use (Million bushels)

 Ethanol and coproducts 4,571 5,288 5,542 5,583 5,582 5,608 5,588 5,594 5,601 5,578 5,551

 HFCS 483 516 528 530 533 535 537 538 539 541 541

 Glucose and dextrose 280 299 302 302 303 304 304 305 306 307 308

 Starch 240 255 261 263 265 267 270 272 275 277 280

 Beverage alcohol 135 143 145 147 148 149 150 151 152 154 155

 Cereals and other 202 213 218 219 221 223 224 226 228 230 232

 Total 5,911 6,715 6,996 7,045 7,052 7,086 7,072 7,086 7,101 7,087 7,067

Corn dry milling

 Corn dry milled for ethanol 4,035 4,716 4,958 5,015 5,027 5,061 5,050 5,065 5,083 5,075 5,060

 (Share de-oiling DDGS) 31.2% 49.2% 66.6% 75.9% 81.3% 84.7% 87.2% 89.1% 90.8% 92.2% 93.5%

 Yields per bushel of corn (Units per bushel)

 Ethanol (gallons) 2.73 2.74 2.74 2.75 2.75 2.76 2.76 2.77 2.77 2.78 2.78

 Distillers grains (pounds) 16.86 16.69 16.52 16.44 16.40 16.37 16.36 16.35 16.34 16.34 16.33

 Costs and returns (Dollars per gallon)

 Ethanol value 2.33 2.04 2.02 2.08 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.19 2.20 2.19 2.21

 Distillers grains value 0.84 0.57 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56

 Corn oil value 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08

 Corn cost -2.59 -1.89 -1.71 -1.72 -1.74 -1.75 -1.77 -1.77 -1.76 -1.74 -1.73

 Fuel and electricity cost -0.19 -0.23 -0.24 -0.22 -0.21 -0.21 -0.22 -0.23 -0.24 -0.25 -0.29

 Other operating costs -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.36 -0.36 -0.36

 Net operating return 0.11 0.23 0.33 0.40 0.43 0.45 0.45 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.46

Corn wet milling (Million bushels)

 Corn wet milled for ethanol 537 573 584 569 555 547 537 529 518 503 491

 Other corn wet milling 1,003 1,070 1,091 1,096 1,101 1,106 1,111 1,115 1,120 1,125 1,129

 Total corn wet milling 1,539 1,643 1,675 1,664 1,656 1,654 1,648 1,644 1,638 1,628 1,620

 Yields per bushel of corn (Units per bushel)

 Ethanol (gallons) 2.69 2.69 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.71 2.71 2.71 2.71 2.72

 Gluten feed (pounds) 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40 11.40

 Gluten meal (pounds) 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

 Corn oil (pounds) 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53

 Costs and returns (Dollars per gallon)

 Ethanol value 2.33 2.04 2.02 2.08 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.19 2.20 2.19 2.21

 Gluten feed value 0.40 0.30 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29

 Gluten meal value 0.32 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25

 Corn oil value 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31

 Corn cost -2.63 -1.92 -1.74 -1.75 -1.77 -1.79 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.78 -1.77

 Fuel and electricity cost -0.15 -0.18 -0.19 -0.17 -0.17 -0.17 -0.18 -0.18 -0.19 -0.20 -0.23

 Other operating costs -0.53 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 -0.55 -0.55 -0.56 -0.56 -0.57 -0.57 -0.58

 Net operating return 0.07 0.26 0.38 0.43 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48
6

Biodiesel sector

October-September year 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23

Biodiesel supply and use (Million gallons)

 Production 1,198 1,335 1,417 1,432 1,473 1,563 1,605 1,633 1,668 1,714 1,767

 From soybean oil 689 754 790 780 783 808 801 787 778 773 776

 From corn oil 9 1 127 163 195 231 276 317 357 399 442 486

 From other fats and oils 405 435 436 427 425 441 447 447 445 449 452

 From cellulosic diesel 1 3 2 0 2 8 3 1 3 4 3 7 4 0 4 3 4 6 4 9 5 2

 Net exports 7 8 6 6 5 8 5 6 5 6 5 7 5 8 5 9 5 9 6 0 6 1

 Domestic disappearance 1,120 1,270 1,359 1,376 1,417 1,506 1,547 1,574 1,609 1,654 1,706

Fuel prices and tax credit (Dollars per gallon)

 Biodiesel, rack 4.57 4.78 4.69 4.56 4.60 4.72 4.77 4.76 4.76 4.79 4.81

 #2 Diesel, refiner sales 2.83 2.62 2.50 2.56 2.66 2.75 2.85 2.93 3.00 3.08 3.12

 #2 Diesel, retail 3.66 3.47 3.35 3.41 3.52 3.62 3.72 3.80 3.88 3.96 3.99

 Biodiesel tax credit 1.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

RIN values

 Per RIN gallon 0.51 1.33 1.54 1.41 1.38 1.44 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.44 1.44

 Per phyiscal gallon 0.77 2.00 2.31 2.12 2.08 2.15 2.21 2.19 2.16 2.15 2.16

Costs and returns

 Biodiesel value 4.57 4.78 4.69 4.56 4.60 4.72 4.77 4.76 4.76 4.79 4.81

 Glycerin value 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

 Soyoil cost -3.97 -4.13 -4.02 -3.88 -3.90 -3.99 -4.02 -3.99 -3.95 -3.95 -3.93

 Other operating costs -0.57 -0.57 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58 -0.59 -0.59 -0.60 -0.60 -0.61 -0.61

 Net operating return 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.26 0.29

Soybean oil supply and use

October-September year 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23

(Million pounds)

Supply 21,627 21,425 21,624 22,006 22,374 22,646 22,852 23,114 23,391 23,702 23,973

 Beginning stocks 2,540 1,504 1,592 1,680 1,785 1,814 1,782 1,812 1,864 1,910 1,955

 Production 18,737 19,771 19,882 20,176 20,439 20,682 20,920 21,152 21,378 21,642 21,868

 Imports 350 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

Domestic use 18,111 18,061 18,314 18,393 18,565 18,843 18,851 18,889 18,965 19,060 19,214

 Biodiesel 5,302 5,805 6,081 6,004 6,028 6,219 6,168 6,056 5,989 5,955 5,979

 Food and other 12,809 12,256 12,233 12,390 12,536 12,624 12,683 12,833 12,976 13,105 13,236

Exports 2,012 1,772 1,630 1,828 1,995 2,021 2,188 2,361 2,516 2,688 2,763

Total use 20,123 19,833 19,944 20,222 20,560 20,864 21,039 21,250 21,481 21,748 21,977

Ending stocks 1,504 1,592 1,680 1,785 1,814 1,782 1,812 1,864 1,910 1,955 1,996

Price (Cents per pound)

 Decatur 51.59 53.67 52.14 50.39 50.70 51.82 52.15 51.77 51.36 51.32 51.08
7

Biofuel RIN supply and Utilization: Crop Year

September-August year 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23

(Million gallons)

Renewable Fuel Standard 16,100 16,819 17,885 18,235 18,805 19,692 20,625 21,167 21,511 22,176 22,773

 Advanced biofuels 2,500 2,619 3,085 3,235 3,805 4,692 5,625 6,167 6,511 7,176 7,773

 Cellulosic ethanol (waived) 2 8 5 0 140 220 471 859 1,291 1,667 2,011 2,343 2,773

 Biodiesel 1,187 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280

Biodiesel RFS RINs

 Production 1,107 1,250 1,331 1,345 1,384 1,469 1,507 1,531 1,563 1,605 1,654

 Carry In 149 7 0 1 1 2 7 5 2 1 1 3 3

 Use for biodiesel compliance 1,187 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280

 Unused for this mandate 7 0 4 0 6 1 6 7 110 194 230 252 285 328 377

 of which, carry out 7 0 1 1 2 7 5 2 1 1 3 3 2

 of which, demoted 0 2 9 5 9 6 1 105 192 229 251 282 325 375

Advanced RFS RINs

 Production 2,454 2,386 3,086 3,263 3,827 4,704 5,630 6,170 6,526 7,187 7,784

 Biodiesel (in ethanol gallons) 1,661 1,875 1,996 2,018 2,075 2,203 2,261 2,297 2,345 2,407 2,481

 Cellulosic 2 8 5 0 140 220 471 859 1,291 1,667 2,011 2,343 2,773

 Other Advanced 765 461 950 1,026 1,280 1,642 2,078 2,207 2,169 2,436 2,530

 Carry In 309 263 1 6 4 1 1 9 4 1 2 4 5

 Use for advanced compliance 2,500 2,619 3,085 3,235 3,805 4,692 5,625 6,167 6,511 7,176 7,773

 Unused for this mandate 263 3 0 1 7 3 2 3 3 2 1 9 5 1 6 1 4 1 5

 of which, carry out 263 1 6 4 1 1 9 4 1 2 4 5 4

 of which, demoted 0 1 4 1 3 2 1 2 4 1 7 8 3 1 2 1 0 1 2

Total RFS RINs

 Production 14,712 16,247 17,821 18,286 18,843 19,723 20,594 21,206 21,617 22,230 22,805

 Biodiesel (in ethanol gallons) 1,661 1,875 1,996 2,018 2,075 2,203 2,261 2,297 2,345 2,407 2,481

 Cellulosic 2 8 5 0 140 220 471 859 1,291 1,667 2,011 2,343 2,773

 Other Advanced 765 461 950 1,026 1,280 1,642 2,078 2,207 2,169 2,436 2,530

 Conventional 12,258 13,861 14,735 15,023 15,016 15,019 14,964 15,036 15,091 15,044 15,022

 Carry In 2,217 829 257 193 245 281 311 277 312 405 445

 Use for total compliance 16,100 16,819 17,885 18,235 18,805 19,692 20,625 21,167 21,511 22,176 22,773

 Unused for this mandate 829 257 193 245 283 312 280 316 418 459 478

 of which, carry out 829 257 193 245 281 311 277 312 405 445 468

 of which, expired 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 4 1 3 1 4 1 0

RIN value (Dollars per RIN-gallon)

 Biodiesel RIN 0.51 1.33 1.54 1.41 1.38 1.44 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.44 1.44

 Cellulosic RIN allowance val. 0.69 1.50 2.08 2.08 2.17 2.28 2.33 2.30 2.28 2.31 2.34

 Advanced RIN 0.41 1.11 1.28 1.14 1.20 1.34 1.39 1.39 1.35 1.38 1.39

 Conventional RIN 0.12 0.69 0.80 0.73 0.74 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.78 0.78 0.81

RIN compliance expend. (Million dollars)

 Total 2,592 12,496 16,070 15,120 16,311 18,803 20,828 21,999 22,243 23,657 25,425
8

September-August year 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23

Area (Million acres)

 Planted area 97.2 96.9 92.5 91.0 91.1 91.5 91.6 91.3 91.0 90.7 90.2

 Harvested area 87.4 88.8 84.8 83.4 83.4 83.8 83.9 83.6 83.4 83.1 82.6

(Bushels per harvested acre)

Yield 123.4 161.8 164.3 166.3 168.6 170.8 172.6 174.8 176.9 178.7 180.7

(Million bushels)

Supply 11,869 14,995 15,595 15,680 15,855 16,115 16,315 16,466 16,628 16,758 16,873

 Beginning stocks 989 604 1,639 1,774 1,767 1,765 1,797 1,824 1,846 1,881 1,924

 Production 10,780 14,366 13,932 13,880 14,063 14,324 14,492 14,617 14,757 14,852 14,924

 Imports 100 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5

Domestic use 10,324 11,707 12,019 12,036 12,087 12,166 12,189 12,221 12,260 12,264 12,256

 Feed and residual 4,389 4,969 4,999 4,969 5,012 5,057 5,094 5,112 5,135 5,154 5,166

 Ethanol and coproducts 4,571 5,288 5,542 5,583 5,582 5,608 5,588 5,594 5,601 5,578 5,551

 HFCS 483 516 528 530 533 535 537 538 539 541 541

 Seed 2 4 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3

 Food and other 857 910 926 931 937 942 948 954 961 968 975

Exports 941 1,649 1,802 1,876 2,002 2,152 2,301 2,399 2,487 2,570 2,656

Total use 11,265 13,357 13,821 13,913 14,090 14,317 14,490 14,620 14,747 14,834 14,912

Ending stocks 604 1,639 1,774 1,767 1,765 1,797 1,824 1,846 1,881 1,924 1,961

(Dollars per bushel)

Farm price 7.08 5.18 4.69 4.73 4.79 4.83 4.88 4.88 4.87 4.84 4.82

Market net return/a. 524.99 470.87 398.14 414.50 434.34 447.08 456.41 458.69 457.93 452.20 449.18

(Dollars)

Corn supply and use

September-August year 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23

Area

 Planted area 77.2 78.5 76.4 77.2 77.3 77.3 77.5 77.7 77.5 77.5 77.6

 Harvested area 76.1 77.4 75.4 76.1 76.2 76.2 76.4 76.6 76.4 76.5 76.5

Yield 39.6 43.5 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.0 46.6 47.0 47.5 47.9

Supply 3,204 3,517 3,528 3,604 3,653 3,689 3,729 3,772 3,803 3,840 3,878

 Beginning stocks 169 134 191 195 200 198 195 190 193 195 197

 Production 3,015 3,368 3,322 3,394 3,438 3,475 3,519 3,566 3,595 3,630 3,666

 Imports 2 0 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5

Domestic use 1,726 1,837 1,849 1,879 1,902 1,924 1,946 1,968 1,990 2,015 2,036

 Crush 1,608 1,709 1,719 1,744 1,767 1,788 1,808 1,829 1,848 1,871 1,890

 Seed and residual 118 128 130 135 135 136 138 140 142 144 146

Exports 1,345 1,490 1,485 1,524 1,552 1,569 1,593 1,610 1,618 1,628 1,642

Total use 3,070 3,326 3,333 3,403 3,455 3,494 3,539 3,579 3,608 3,642 3,678

Ending stocks 134 191 195 200 198 195 190 193 195 197 200

 CCC inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Under loan 2 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 5 1 4 1 4 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 6

 Other stocks 132 180 182 185 184 181 177 179 180 182 185

(Dollars per bushel)

Farm price 14.20 11.49 11.26 10.99 11.23 11.49 11.69 11.66 11.71 11.71 11.70

Market net return/a. 417.39 346.08 340.71 335.28 350.54 366.17 375.88 377.46 380.90 382.63 383.46

(Dollars)

Soybean supply and use

(Million acres)

(Bushels per harvested acre)

(Million bushels)
9

Marketing year 12/13 17/18 22/23

Percentile 1 0 5 0 9 0 1 0 5 0 9 0 1 0 5 0 9 0

Supply and Use

 Motor gasoline use* 133,738 133,758 133,771 122,910 138,167 149,650 108,460 131,044 145,905

 Ethanol production 12,521 12,642 12,726 15,405 16,341 17,689 16,031 18,234 20,849

 Low-level blend use 12,741 12,791 12,822 10,585 12,302 13,428 8,580 10,922 12,202

 Mid-level blend use 5 4 5 8 6 1 2,343 2,564 2,820 2,891 3,311 3,679

 High-level blend use 129 130 131 1,524 2,269 3,437 3,879 5,409 7,096

 Biodiesel production 1,179 1,185 1,190 1,321 1,472 1,831 1,331 1,680 2,163

 Biodiesel domestic use 1,115 1,120 1,124 1,317 1,451 1,805 1,332 1,674 2,143

Prices

 Petroleum price, Refiners' acq. 94.48 94.48 94.48 52.90 83.58 144.41 60.34 95.33 172.88

 Unleaded gasoline, retail 3.43 3.43 3.44 2.54 3.24 4.55 2.81 3.65 5.14

 Conventional ethanol, Omaha rack 2.29 2.33 2.39 1.81 2.12 2.50 1.86 2.19 2.58

 Ethanol, effective retail 2.76 2.80 2.85 1.52 1.96 2.61 1.55 2.07 2.80

 Biodiesel, rack 4.54 4.57 4.62 4.11 4.67 5.34 4.13 4.79 5.50

 Biodiesel RINs 0.49 0.51 0.54 1.03 1.41 1.93 1.02 1.40 1.89

 Cellulsosic RINs 0.65 0.70 0.72 1.39 2.29 3.25 1.39 2.28 3.55

 Advanced RINs 0.37 0.42 0.44 1.03 1.36 1.63 1.02 1.38 1.80

 Conventional RINs 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.35 0.74 1.29 0.27 0.80 1.42

 Total RIN compliance expend. 2,504 2,578 2,691 9,690 18,321 29,604 9,937 23,539 46,717

 Corn price, farm level 6.86 7.04 7.32 3.54 4.70 6.17 3.51 4.67 6.13

 Soybean price, farm level 13.84 14.18 14.60 8.33 11.14 14.68 8.50 11.52 15.23

 Soybean oil price, Decatur 51.06 51.56 52.18 43.41 51.40 60.65 41.83 50.73 60.31

 Corn oil price, Chicago 55.90 56.40 57.04 47.58 55.50 64.71 46.16 54.93 64.56

* includes fuel ethanol

Selected stochastic distributions

(Million gallons)

(Dollars per barrel)

(Dollars per gallon)

(Dollars per RIN)

(Million dollars)

(Dollars per bushel)

(Cents per pound)