Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

Larry Haller

(Lawrence.haller@ams.usda.gov) 

Senior Economist

Agricultural Analytics Division

Agricultural Marketing Service

U.S. Department of Agriculture

AMS Annual Industry Conference 

Egg, Fish, Poultry, and Red Meat Breakout Sessions

October 24 – 25, 2017

Livestock and Poultry 

Economic Outlook
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

 Supply

• Production increasing in 2018 – up 2%

• Live weights appear to have plateaued 

 Demand

• 2017 per capita disappearance 90.6 lbs, up 1%

• 2018 per capita disappearance 91.5 lbs, up 1%

• Exports up in 2018 by 3%

 Price Trends

• 2017 wholesale whole bird—$0.88/lb, down 5%

• Retail composite—$1.93/lb, up 3%

Broiler Industry
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

 Supply

• Production up in 2018 by 2%

• Live weights continue to increase

 Demand

• 2017 per capita disappearance 16.5 lbs, down 1%

• 2018 per capita disappearance 17.0 lbs, up 3%

• 2018 turkey exports up 6%

 Price Trends

• 2018 wholesale whole hen $1.04/lb, up 6% 

• Retail whole bird $1.52/lb., down 3%

Turkey Industry
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

 Supply

• Industry slowing transition to cage-free

• Table egg production up 1% in 2018

• Eggs broken up 2% in 2018

 Demand

• Per capita disappearance 276 eggs in 2017, unchanged

• Per capita disappearance up 1% in 2018

• Exports up 5% in 2018

 Price Trends

• 2018 wholesale Grade A large $0.95/doz, up 2% 

• Retail Grade A large $1.62/doz, up 13%

Egg Industry
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

 Supply—Record high production continues

• Production up 5% in 2017 to 26.5 billion lbs and 

up 3% in 2018 to 27.3 billion lbs

• Imports down 5% in 2017 and up 2% in 2018

 Demand

• Per capita disappearance in 2017 up 4% to 57.6 

lbs., and in 2018 up 2% to 58.8 lbs

• Exports up 11% in 2017 and 3% in 2018

 Price Trends

• Current Retail Choice beef $5.78/lb, Wholesale 

$2.83/lb

• Retail prices virtually flat in 2017 at $5.96/lb and 

down less that 1% in 2018 at $5.93/lb

Cattle/Beef Industry
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

 Supply—Record High Production

• Production increase 3.5% in 2017 to 25.8 billion lbs

• Production increase 4% in 2018 to 26.9 billion lbs

• Imports up 2% in 2017 and down 10% in 2018 

 Demand

• Per capita disappearance 2017 50.4 lbs, up 1%

• Per capita disappearance 2018 51.5 lbs, up 2%

• Exports up 11% in 2017 and up 3% in 2018

 Price Trends

• Current retail price $3.99 per lb, wholesale price $1.29 lb

• Retail prices for 2017 should average $3.70/lb, down 

1%, and $3.50/lb for 2018, down 5%

Swine/Pork Industry
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

 Supply

• Production decrease 3% in 2017 to 145 million lbs

• Production flat in 2018 

• Imports up 16% in 2017, down 3% in 2018

 Demand

• Per capita disappearance 2017 1.1 lbs

• Per capita disappearance 2018 1.0 lbs

 Price Trends

• Between –0.5% and +0.5% in 2017, up 1.5% – 2.5% in 

2018

Sheep/Lamb Industry
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

Fish

 Catfish (Top 3 states)

• Loss of surface acres down 1% from 2016

• More than 20% of catfish are now hybrid, which is causing 

some adjustment problems

 Salmon

• Sockeye harvests about even with 2016 totals; prices higher 

in 2017

• Pink salmon harvests up significantly in 2017 after a small 

2016 harvest; prices steady to slightly higher
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

Fish, cont’d.

 Pollock

• Strong harvest season, with prices rising from 2016 lows as 

producers work down high inventories

 Tuna

• Restrictions on Yellowfin Tuna in the Indian Ocean have 

affected supplies and prices of other tuna species and other 

tuna harvesting regions

 Fish/Seafood prices up 1% – 2% in 2017 and 0.5% –

1.5% in 2018
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

 Feed situation

• Corn—prices in 2018 expected to fall 2%

• Soybean meal—prices in 2018 expected to 

be unchanged

 Trade

• Weakened U.S. dollar in 2017 is supporting 

exports

Note: All forecasts assume no new HPAI outbreak

General Outlook
Livestock, Poultry, and Seed

Agricultural Analytics Division

Questions?

Don’t forget to check out our monthly publication, 

“The Economic Landscape” available at

https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/market-research/aad