10A-i APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FO R N ATIONAL I MPACT A NALYSIS SPREADSHEET MODEL

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS ...................................................................................... 10A-1 10A.2 STARTUP ............................................................................................................. 10A-1 10A.3 DESCRIPTION OF NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS WORKSHEETS ........ 10A-1 10A.4 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS FOR OPERATING THE NAT IONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET S ............................................................................ 10A-210A-1 APPENDIX 10A. U SER INSTRUCTIONS FOR N ATIONAL I MPACT A NALYSIS
SPREADSHEET MODEL

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS

DOE perfo rm s all NIA calculations u s ing a Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet which are available on regulations.gov, docket number EERE–2011– BT

– STD

– 0006 at www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2011- BT

- STD -0006

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10A.2 STARTUP

The NIA spreadsheet enables the user to perform a National Impact Analysis (NIA) for the candidate standard levels (C SLs) for general service fluorescent lamps (GSFL) and incandescent reflector lamps (IRL)

. To execute the spreadsheet, DOE assumes that the user has access to a PC with Microsoft Excel ® 2007 or later installed under the Windows operating system

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10A.3 DESCRIPTION OF NATIO N AL IMPACT ANALYSIS WORKSHEETS

The NIA spreadsheets perform calculations to forecast the change in national energy use and net present value of financial impacts due to a revised energy efficiency standard. The energy use and associated costs for a given standard are determined by first calculating the shipments and then calculating the energy use and costs for all lamps shipped under that standard. The differences between the st andards and base case can then be compared and the overall energy savings and net present values determined. The NIA spreadsheets consist of the following worksheets:

Introduction Includes an introduction to the spreadsheet calculations, and information on the User Options & Summary worksheet User Options & Summary Includes user

- selected scenarios and a summary table of the cumulative shipments, NES, and NPV under each scenario. (More information on the User Options & Summary worksheet can be

found in Section 10

- A.4 ) Charts Includes charts of shipments, stock, NES and NPV for each standards case for the user selected scenario Lamp Shipments & Stock

- IRL Includes historical data and the annual forecasts of shipments and stock for each standards case (IR L) for the user selected scenario Lamp Shipments

- GSFL Includes historical data and the annual forecasts of shipments for each standards case (GSFL) for the user selected scenario Lamp Stock

- GSFL Includes historical data and the annual forecasts of stock for each standards case (GSFL) for the user selected scenario Ballast Shipments & Stock Includes historical data and the annual forecasts of ballast shipments and stock for each standards case (GSFL) for the user selected scenario Energy Savings Includes the calculation of the annual energy savings for each standards case for the user selected scenario Fuel Cost Savings Includes the calculation of the annual fuel cost savings for each standards case for the user selected scenario10A-2 Equipment Costs Include s the calculation of the annual equipment costs for each standards case for the user selected scenario Net Present Value Includes a summary of the fuel cost savings and equipment costs and the calculation of the annual net present values for each standard s case, discounted at 3% and 7% for the user selected scenario Parameters and Assumptions Includes the parameters and assumption inputs for the shipments analysis and NIA

Fuel Prices Includes Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) electricity price forecasts and extrapolations by sector (residential, commercial, industrial) Site to Power Plant & Upstream Includes annual site to power plant, and upstream conversion factors

Substitution Includes allowed substitutions between lamp and lamp

- &

- ballast options (and a correction factor under said substitutions to keep light output constant) Failure and Replacement Includes probability distributions governing lamp and ballast failure and replacement.

Price Forecasts Includes forecasts of lamp and ballast prices due to learning and differing assumptions about rare earth oxide prices. Lamp Usage Includes lamp hours of use probabilities by sector, building type and room type LED Incursion Forecast Includes the LED incursion forecast by sector for GSFLs and IRLs Glossary Includes a glossary of the variables and named ranges used in the spreadsheet

10A.4 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS F OR OPERATING THE NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEETS

Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheets are as follows: Once the NIA spreadsheet file has been downloaded from the Internet , open the file using Excel ®

. If Ma cros have been disabled a security warning will appear under the Ribbon. Click “Options...” to open

a w indow titled “Security Alert

- Ma cro”, in this window select “E nabl e this content” to allow Ma cros to run. Use Excel's ® View/Zoom commands at the top menu bar to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.

Calculations are performed under a range of different sets of assumptions (scenarios), which can be selected by the user on the User Options & Summary worksheet. A description of the available options is given below. For each of the scenario options, the user should select one option in the associated yellow drop down menu; users must click on the yellow cell for the drop down menu to appear. Results throughout the spreadsheet will update automatically.

There are two types of scenarios that can be investigated, NIA scenarios and Shipments scenarios. NIA Scenarios do not change shipment quantities, while Shipments Scenarios change shipment quantities based on the selected options.

Users can vary these scenarios independently of the shipments scenarios. NIA Scenarios

AEO 2012 Economic growth s cenario s

**•** Reference Case

**•** High economic growth

**•** Low economic growth10A-3 Rebound Scenario s

**•** Reference - Assumes a 0% rebound in the commercial sector and 0% in the residential
sector.

**•** Framework - Assu mes a 1% rebound in the commercial sector and 8.5% in the residential
sector

**•** High - Assumes a rebound rate of 15% in both sectors.

There are four different analysis types users can perform in the shipments scenarios, uncertainty analysis, impact determination, standards alternatives and IRL short life . Users first selec t the analysis type, then the option for that analysis type, explained below. The default option is Reference. Shipment Scenarios

Uncertainty Analysis

**•** Reference - Shipment reference scenario, Solid State li ghting (LEDs) and lighting
contro ls grow at DOE's best

- estimate rate, Rare Earth prices remain at their 2012 levels, standards apply to all lamps, and technologies are fixed.

**•** REO Low - Rare Earth prices drop to their pre-2012 values, all other values as in Reference.

**•** REO High - Rare Earth prices rise to their peak values, all other values as in Reference

Impact Determination

**•** Reference - Shipment reference scenario, Solid State lig hting (LEDs) and lighting
contro ls grow at DOE's best

- estimate rate, Rare Earth prices remain at their 2012 levels, standards apply to all lamps, and technologies are fixed.

**•** No LEDs - LEDs do not grow into the market, all other values as in Reference.

**•** Low Controls - Lighting controls adoption remains fixed at current levels, all other values as in Reference.

Standards Alternative

**•** Reference - Shipment reference scenario, Solid State lig hting (LEDs) and lighting
contro ls grow at DOE's best

- estimate rate, Rare Earth prices remain at their 2012 levels, standards apply to all lamps, and technologies are fixed.

**•** No T5 standard - Assumes no standard is implemented for T5 lamps, all other values as in Reference.

IRL Short Life

**•** Reference - Shipment reference scenario, Solid State lig hting (LEDs) and lighting
contro ls grow at DOE's best

- estimate rate, Rare Earth prices remain at their 2012 levels, standards apply to all lamps, and technologies are fixed.

**•** IRL Short Life - Baseline IRL technology remain available after standards but with shorted lifetimes, increased light output, improved efficacies, but unchanged energy consumption. All other values as in Reference.