ANALYSIS OF COMPLIANCE WITH 

40 C.F.R. SECTION 51.160(A) & (B)

BY

CAROL LEE, SENIOR AIR QUALITY ENGINEER

REVIEWED BY

BRENDA CABRAL, SUPERVISING AIR QUALITY ENGINEER

AUGUST 2012
2

Table of Contents

Preventing Violations of Control Strategy: ...................................................................................................3

Preventing Interference with Attainment or Maintenance of NAAQS:........................................................3

Ozone:.......................................................................................................................................................3

PM10 and PM2.5:.........................................................................................................................................5

NO2:...........................................................................................................................................................7

SO2:............................................................................................................................................................8

CO:.............................................................................................................................................................9

Lead:........................................................................................................................................................10
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Analysis of Compliance with 40 C.F.R. §§ 160(a)&(b)

40 C.F.R. Sections 160(a) and 160(b) require that the SIP must include provisions that will 

prevent permitted sources from (1) violating any portion of the region’s Control Strategy and 

(2) interfering with attainment or maintenance of any NAAQS. Section 160(a) requires that the 

SIP have provisions for the District to determine whether any such source will cause such a 

violation or interference; and Section 160(b) requires that the SIP have provisions for the APCO 

to deny a permit for a source that will cause such a violation or interference. These 

requirements apply to the entirety of the District’s NSR program, not just the “Major NSR” 

elements that are subject to 40 C.F.R. Sections 165 (for non-attainment pollutants) and 166 (for 

attainment/unclassified pollutants). The District’s NSR program under the Proposed 

Amendments will fully satisfy these requirements, as explained below.

Preventing Violations of Control Strategy:

The District’s review of permit applications under its NSR program will ensure that no new or 

modified source (of any size) will violate any portion of the District’s Control Strategy. The 

District’s permit review process – applicable to all Authorities to Construct for all new and 

modified sources at all facilities regardless of size – involves a thorough review all applicable air 

quality regulatory requirements to ensure that the new/modified source will comply. If this 

review shows that there will be a violation of any such requirement (which includes all 

elements of the District’s control strategy under the SIP), then the District will deny the permit. 

This denial authority is set forth in Regulation 2-1-304 (Denial, Failure To Comply With 

Applicable Requirements). 

Preventing Interference with Attainment or Maintenance of NAAQS:

The District’s NSR review requirements will also ensure that no new or modified sources for 

which NSR permits are issued will interfere with attainment or maintenance of any NAAQS. 

Several aspects of the District’s NSR program combine to ensure this result. The discussion 

below addresses each of the NAAQS in turn.

Ozone:

EPA’s current NAAQS for ozone is 75 ppm, averaged over 8 hours. The Bay Area is currently 

designated as non-attainment of this standard. To address this situation, the Bay Area 2010 

Clean Air Plan (CAP)1provides a comprehensive plan to improve Bay Area air quality and 

protect public health. The 2010 CAP has been prepared in close collaboration with the Air 

 

1

Bay Area 2010 Clean Air Plan, September 15, 2010.
4

District’s regional agency partners, and has been informed by extensive outreach to the public 

and interested stakeholders. 

Ozone is not emitted directly from pollution sources. Instead, ozone is formed in the

atmosphere through complex chemical reactions in the presence of sunlight between two types 

of precursor chemicals: hydrocarbons, often referred to as “reactive organic gases” (ROG), and 

nitrogen oxides (NOx). Ozone is also a regional pollutant. Emissions of ROG and NOx 

throughout the Bay Area contribute to ozone formation. Because emissions in one part of the 

region can impact air quality miles away, efforts to reduce ozone levels focus on reducing 

emissions of ROG and NOx throughout the region.

There are literally millions of sources of ozone precursors in the Bay Area, including industrial 

and commercial facilities, motor vehicles, and consumer products such as household cleaners 

and paints. Even trees and plants produce ozone precursors. The main sources of ROG 

emissions in the Bay Area are motor vehicles and evaporation of solvents, fuels and other 

petroleum products. The main sources of NOx are motor vehicles and combustion at industrial 

and other facilities. The Bay Area annual average emission inventory for ozone precursors, ROG 

and NOX is presented in Table 2‐3 in Volume I of the 2010 CAP2.

The inventory and projections are based upon CARB EMFAC 2007, Version 2.3 and reflects the

effect of regulations adopted as of December 31, 2006. The inventories do not include

additional emissions reductions from State or federal measures adopted since 2007 or CARB’s

“Pavley regulations” to reduce greenhouse gases from motor vehicles. 

Reactive Organic Gases (ROG) (TPY) Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)

2005 2009 2012 2015 2020 2005 2009 2012 2015 2020

Stationary 

Sources*

120.4 124.4 125.3 127.1 130.5 63.8 75.8 77 78.4 80.9

Grand Total

Emissions

393 354 331 317 306 521 473 432 394 357

* Stationary Sources include: Industrial/Commercial Processes, Other Industrial/Commercial Processes, 

Combustion – Stationary Sources, Burning of Waste Materials, Banked Emissions, and Alternate Compliance 

Allowance. Banked Emissions are current emission reduction credits in the District’s emission banking program 

that may be used in the future to offset future emission increases. Alternate Compliance Allowance are surplus 

emissions, voluntarily reduced, available for alternative compliance with BARCT requirements of selected rules, as 

prescribed by State Law and BAAQMD Regulation 2, Rule 9.

The District’s CAP allow for a certain amount of growth in stationary sources (i.e., sources 

permitted by the District under its NSR program). Furthermore, per Regulation 2-2-302, ROG 

and NOx offsets will be required for facilities with increases over 10 TPY, and any increase at all 

for facilities above this threshold, which is far lower than what is required under the federal 

CAA. There is not yet a PSD modeling methodology for ozone. Hence, there is no proposal to 

 

2

BAAQMD Bay Area 2010 Clean Air Plan, September 15, 2010.
5

model ozone for minor sources. However, the thresholds for public noticing will ensure a 

“backstop” requirement for those applications with significant increases in emissions of ROG 

and NOx. Issuing minor NSR permits for new and modified sources will not interfere with 

attainment and maintenance of the ozone NAAQS. 

PM10 and PM2.5:

EPA has established three NAAQS for particulate matter: a 150 μg/m324-hour-average 

standard for PM10; and a 35 μg/m324-hour-average standard and a 15 μg/m3annual average 

standard for PM2.5.

The measured ambient air quality in the Bay Area is currently in compliance with all PM NAAQS. 

The Bay Area is administratively designated by EPA as being in attainment of the PM10 NAAQS 

and the annual-average PM2.5 NAAQS. From our monitoring network, the District’s monitoring 

network has detected the following concentrations of PM10 in the Bay Area:

2008: Maximum 24-hr: 77 ug/m3; Maximum annual average: 24.1 ug/m3

3

2009: Maximum 24-hr: 55 ug/m3; Maximum annual average: 20.4 ug/m3

4

2010: Maximum 24-hr: 70 ug/m3; Maximum annual average: 21.0 ug/m3

5

Hence, for PM10 the maximum 24-hr concentration is 51% of standard, while the maximum 

annual concentration is 17% of standard. 

The Bay Area is currently designated by EPA as being non-attainment for the 24-hour average 

PM2.5 NAAQS, but an analysis of monitoring data over the past few years shows that as a factual 

matter 24-hour PM2.5 concentrations have been below the standard. The District has 

developed a comprehensive emissions inventory and report of the PM in the Bay Area6. The 

purpose of the report is to (1) fulfill federal air quality planning requirements for PM2.5, and (2) 

guide the Air District’s long-term efforts to analyze and reduce PM emissions and population 

exposure to PM in the Bay Area. 

The breakdown of primary PM2.5 emissions by source category differs for the winter PM2.5 

inventory compared to the annual inventory. The key difference is that PM2.5 emissions from 

residential fuel combustion account for 38% of the winter inventory versus 24% in the case of 

the annual inventory. PM2.5 emissions from residential fuel combustion, which is dominated 

by wood-burning in fireplaces and wood stoves, are 65% higher (an additional 7 tons per day) in 

the winter months than the annual emissions for this category. However, emissions from 

 

3

BAAQMD Annual Bay Area Air Quality Summary, 2008.

4

BAAQMD Annual Bay Area Air Quality Summary, 2009.

5

BAAQMD Annual Bay Area Air Quality Summary, 2010.

6

BAAQMD Particulate Matter: Understanding PM to Protect Public Health in the Bay Area, August 2012.
6

several source categories are lower in winter. For example, winter emissions from off-road

equipment, as well as from the industrial sector, are lower than annual average emissions due 

to reduced activity during the winter months. Accidental fires and geological dust emissions 

are also lower in the winter than the annual average. Overall, however, winter-time PM2.5 

emissions are 4% higher (an additional 2 tons per day) than annual-average emissions. The 

relationship between annual PM10 and winter PM10 is similar to that for PM2.5. The main 

difference is that emissions for residential fuel combustion (primarily wood-burning) increase 

from 11% of the annual PM10 inventory to 18% of the winter PM10 inventory, while emissions 

from accidental fires (primarily wildfires) decrease from 5% of the annual PM10 inventory to 1% 

of the winter PM10 inventory.

Annual average emissions of primary PM2.5 have decreased from an estimated 87 tons per day, 

as reported in the 2010 CAP, to 47 tons per day, a decline of 46%. The revised inventory 

includes significant reductions in several major source categories, such as residential woodburning, commercial cooking, off-road vehicles (“Other Mobile Sources”), and road dust 

(included in “Geological dust”). This decrease in the inventory is based in part on real emission 

reductions due to factors such as turnover in the vehicle fleet and the impact of new 

regulations that had not been accounted for in previous emission factors. However, changes in 

methodologies used to estimate emissions also account for a significant portion of the decrease 

in the inventory. The estimated emissions provided in the inventory7are based upon data from 

source tests, published emission factors, and engineering calculations. Emission inventories are 

revised and improved on a regular basis. The current PM inventory7differs significantly from 

the inventory provided in the 2010 CAP. This is due to the fact that, since the release of the 

2010 CAP, ARB and Air District staff reviewed and improved the methodologies used to 

estimate emissions from several of the most important PM source categories, as explained 

below. 

Future emissions projections for primary PM and PM precursors are based on estimated future 

trends in population growth and household formation, land use, economic activity, and motor 

vehicle travel. The projected inventory includes anticipated emission reductions from turnover 

in the motor vehicle fleet (whereby older, dirtier vehicles are replaced by newer, cleaner 

vehicles), and well as ARB and Air District regulations that have already been adopted. 

Implementation of ARB regulations on mobile sources is typically phased in, so the entire 

benefit of these adopted regulations will not be realized until they have been fully 

implemented over the next 10-15 years. At that point, emissions are projected to slowly 

increase in response to population and economic growth, if no additional regulations are 

adopted. 

 

7

BAAQMD Particulate Matter: Understanding PM to Protect Public Health in the Bay Area, August 2012.
7

PM10 (TPY) PM2.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Stationary 

Sources*

34.9 35.5 36.5 37.7 38.8 29.8 30.3 31.0 31.9 32.8

Grand Total

Emissions

104 104 105 108 111 49 48 48 49 51

* Stationary Sources include: Industrial/Commercial Processes, Other Industrial/Commercial Processes, 

Combustion – Stationary Sources, Burning of Waste Materials, Banked Emissions, and Alternate Compliance 

Allowance. Banked Emissions are current emission reduction credits in the District’s emission banking program 

that may be used in the future to offset future emission increases. Alternate Compliance Allowance are surplus 

emissions, voluntarily reduced, available for alternative compliance with BARCT requirements of selected rules, as 

prescribed by State Law and BAAQMD Regulation 2, Rule 9.

Overall, the projected inventory shows little change in total emissions of primary PM2.5 and 

primary PM10 from 2010 through 2030, based on the (unlikely) assumption that no future 

regulations or policies are adopted to further reduce emissions. As such, the projected 

emissions represent a “business as usual” scenario as to future emission levels. PM emissions 

from sources under District jurisdiction are projected to increase at a rate of around 1% per 

year based on previous observed growth and regulations adopted to date. 

As with ozone above, the District is projecting an overall a decline in winter-time PM2.5

emissions (with a slight up-tick in 2030), which is expected to keep the Bay Area below the 

NAAQS. The District has also projected a certain amount of growth in stationary 

sources/industrial sources. Again, the slight up-tick in 2030 does not include the unlikely 

assumption that no future regulations or policies are adopted to further reduce emissions. In 

addition, for major sources, offsets for increases of PM10 and PM2.5 will be required. The 

thresholds for modeling and public noticing will ensure a “backstop” requirement to perform 

air quality modeling and public noticing for those applications with significant increases in 

emissions. Issuing minor NSR permits for new and modified sources will not interfere with 

attainment and maintenance of the PM2.5 and PM10 NAAQS. 

NO2:

EPA’s current NAAQS for nitrogen dioxide is 0.1 ppm on an hourly basis and 0.053 ppm 

averaged over an annual average. The Bay Area is currently designated as in attainment of the 

annual average standard and unclassified for the hourly standard. To attain this hourly 

standard, the 3-year average of the 98th percentile of the daily maximum 1-hour average at 

each monitor within an area must not exceed 0.100 ppm (effective January 22, 2010). The 

latest inventory for NO2 (2008) is 449 tons per day and 163,890 tons per year8. Only 13% 

comes from stationary sources (combustion), while 87% of the inventory is from motor 

vehicles8. The District has reviewed application data9and determined that if all increases from

 

8

BAAQMD Base Year 2008 Bay Area Emissions Inventory Summary Report, May 2011.
8

plants less than 40 tons were added together for each year for years 1991 to 2011 that the 

averaged, annual total NO2 increase is 227 tons per year and ranges from 34 to 557 tons per 

year, which is only 0.02% to 0.34% of the total inventory. From our monitoring network, the 

District’s monitoring network has detected the following concentrations of NO2 in the Bay Area:

2008: Maximum 1-hr: 0.080 ppm; Maximum annual average: 0.017 ppm

10

2009: Maximum 1-hr: 0.069 ppm; Maximum annual average: 0.016 ppm

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2010: Maximum 1-hr: 0.093 ppm; Maximum annual average: 0.016 ppm

12

Hence, the maximum 1-hr concentration is 93% of standard, while the maximum annual

concentration is 32% of standard. It is unlikely than even a significant increase in NO2 will hurt 

the District’s continual attainment of the NAAQS for NO2. Furthermore, per Regulation 2-2-302, 

NO2 offsets will be required for facilities with increases over 10 TPY, and any increase at all for 

facilities above this threshold, which is far lower than what is required under the federal CAA. 

The thresholds for modeling and public noticing will ensure a “backstop” requirement to 

perform air quality modeling and public noticing for those applications with significant 

increases in emissions. Issuing minor NSR permits for new and modified sources will not 

interfere with attainment and maintenance of the NO2 NAAQS. 

SO2:

EPA’s current NAAQS for sulfur dioxide is 75 ppb on an hourly basis, 140 ppb averaged over 24 

hours, and 30 ppb over an annual average. The Bay Area is currently designated as in 

attainment of these standards. The latest inventory for SO2 (2008) is 82 tons per day and 

29,930 tons per year13. Approximately 48% comes from stationary sources, while 52% of the 

inventory is from motor vehicles13. The District has reviewed application data14 and 

determined that if all increases from plants less than 40 tons were added together for each year 

for years 1991 to 2011 that the averaged, annual total SO2 increase is 49 tons per year and 

ranges from 8 to 93 tons per year, which is only 0.027% to 0.311% of the total inventory. From 

our monitoring network, the District’s monitoring network has detected the following 

concentrations of SO2 in the Bay Area:

2008: Maximum 24-hr: 13 ppb; Maximum annual average: 2.1 ppb15

2009: Maximum 24-hr: 7 ppb; Maximum annual average: 1.7 ppb16

 

9

BAAQMD Application Data from Years 1991 to 2012.

10 BAAQMD Annual Bay Area Air Quality Summary, 2008.

11 BAAQMD Annual Bay Area Air Quality Summary, 2009.

12 BAAQMD Annual Bay Area Air Quality Summary, 2010.

13 BAAQMD Base Year 2008 Bay Area Emissions Inventory Summary Report, May 2011.

14 BAAQMD Application Data from Years 1991 to 2011.

15 BAAQMD Annual Bay Area Air Quality Summary, 2008.
9

2010: Maximum 24-hr: 6.5 ppb; Maximum 1-hr: 37 ppb 17, 

18

In 2010, the maximum 1-hr concentration is 49.3% of standard, while the maximum 24-hr 

concentrations is 49.3% of the annual standard. It is unlikely than even a significant increase in 

SO2 will hurt the District’s continual attainment of the NAAQS for SO2. In addition, for major 

sources, offsets for increases of SO2 will be required. The thresholds for modeling and public 

noticing will ensure a “backstop” requirement to perform air quality modeling and public 

noticing for those applications with significant increases in emissions. Issuing minor NSR 

permits for new and modified sources will not interfere with attainment and maintenance of 

the SO2 NAAQS. 

CO:

EPA’s current NAAQS for carbon monoxide is 35 ppm on an hourly basis and 9 ppm averaged 

over 8 hours. The Bay Area is currently designated as attainment of this standard. The latest 

inventory for CO (2008) is 1723 tons per day and 628,900 tons per year13. Only 10% is from 

stationary sources (combustion), while 88% of the inventory is from motor vehicles (the 

remaining 2% is from consumer products/dust sources/fires)19. The District has reviewed 

application data20 and determined that if all increases from plants less than 100 tons were 

added together for each year for years 1991 to 2012 that the averaged, annual total CO 

increase is 351 tons per year and ranges from 50 to 804 tons per year, which is only 0.08% to 

0.128% of the total inventory. From our monitoring network, the District’s monitoring network 

has detected the following concentrations of CO in the Bay Area:

2008: Maximum 1-hr: 5.7 ppm; Maximum 8-hr: 2.5 ppm15

2009: Maximum 1-hr: 4.6 ppm; Maximum 8-hr: 2.9 ppm16

2010: Maximum 1-hr: 3.0 ppm; Maximum 8-hr: 2.2 ppm17

Hence, the maximum 1-hr concentration is 16% of standard, while the maximum 8-hr 

concentration is 32% of standard. It is unlikely than even a significant increase in CO will hurt 

the District’s continual attainment of the NAAQS for CO. The thresholds for modeling and 

public noticing will ensure a “backstop” requirement to perform air quality modeling and public 

noticing for those applications with significant increases in emissions. Issuing minor NSR 

permits for new and modified sources will not interfere with attainment and maintenance of 

the CO NAAQS. 

 

16 BAAQMD Annual Bay Area Air Quality Summary, 2009.

17 BAAQMD Annual Bay Area Air Quality Summary, 2010.

18 Note that the form of the standard changed in 2010.

19 BAAQMD Base Year 2008 Bay Area Emissions Inventory Summary Report, May 2011.

20 BAAQMD Application Data from Years 1991 to 2011.
10

Lead:

The Air District has been classified as “in attainment” for the pre-2008 lead standard of 1.5 

ug/m3 and also the post-2008 lead standard. On November 12, 2008 EPA strengthened the 

NAAQS for lead. EPA revised the level of the primary (health-based) standard from 1.5 

micrograms per cubic meter (ug/m3) to 0.15 ug/m3and revised the secondary (welfare-based) 

standard to be identical in all respects to the primary standard. In conjunction with 

strengthening the lead NAAQS, the EPA promulgated new monitoring requirements including 

new design requirements for the lead NAAQS surveillance network. Monitoring is now required 

for lead sources that may contribute to violations of the lead NAAQS and for large urban areas. 

The Bay Area does not have stationary sources with lead emissions that trigger the monitoring 

requirement. The final requirement sets the emission threshold for monitoring at stationary 

sources at 0.50 tpy. However, the Bay Area does have three airports at which lead monitoring 

will be required on an experimental basis: Palo Alto and Reid-Hillview Airports in Santa Clara 

County, and San Carlos Airport in San Mateo County.

The following is the District’s 2009 inventory of stationary sources with lead emissions:

LOCATION (lbs/yr) FACILITY

Alameda 2.57E+02 Owens-Brockway Glass Container Inc

Alameda 1.31E+01 A B & I Foundry

Alameda 1.24E+01 Ridge Foundry, Inc

Alameda 6.77E+00 Pacific Steel Casting Co-Plant #3

Alameda Total 2.89E+02

Contra Costa 1.62E+01 ConocoPhillips - San Francisco Refinery

Contra Costa 7.37E+00 Shell Martinez Refinery

Contra Costa 

Total 2.36E+01

(lbs/yr) 3.13E+02

Additionally, the District monitors lead at its EPA National Core (NCore) monitoring location in 

San Jose. NCore stations are multi-pollutant monitoring stations. The lead data from the San 

Jose site for the 4th quarter of 2011 shows lead levels 60% of the current NAAQS (0.009

ug/m3)21.

Airports are a special category currently, and BAAQMD is monitoring for lead as part of a 

required 1-year study at three regional airports (Reid Hillview and Palo Alto Airports in Santa 

Clara County and San Carlos Airport in San Mateo County), because emissions from piston 

engine aircraft using leaded fuel may approach 0.5 tons per year. The monitors will become 

permanent if any 3-month rolling average is equal to or exceeds 50% of the NAAQS. Airport 

 

21 Analytical Results of Testing, Eastern Research Group, July 11, 2012.
11

lead TSP filter analysis is being performed by an EPA contract lab. The District is still awaiting 

the first quarter’s results.

The District has been monitoring from a Special Purpose Monitoring Site in Cupertino related to 

the Lehigh Cement plant. After collecting an entire year of data from September 2010 through 

August 2011, the monitoring22 showed a concentration of 0.002 ug/m3for both a 30 day 

average and 3 month average or 13% of the standard.

It is unlikely than even a significant increase in lead will hurt the District’s continual attainment 

of the NAAQS for lead. The thresholds for modeling and public noticing will ensure a 

“backstop” requirement to perform air quality modeling and public noticing for those 

applications with significant increases in emissions. Issuing minor NSR permits for new and 

modified sources will not interfere with attainment and maintenance of the lead NAAQS. 

 

22 BAAQMD Summary and Analysis of Cupertino Air Monitoring Results, December 8, 2011.