### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

............................................................................................................ 14-1 14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY

..................................................................... 14-1 14.3 RESULTS

.................................................................................................................. ....... 14-2 14.3.1 Results for Class A Equipment

.......................................................................... 14-3 14.3.2 Impacts Related to Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – Trial Standard Level 1

................................................................................................ 14-6 14.3.3 Results for Trial Standard Levels 2 through 7 for Class A Equipment

............. 14-7 14.3.4 Results for Class B Equipment

.......................................................................... 14-8 14.3.5 Impacts Related to Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – Trial Standard Level 1

................................................................................................ 14-8 14.3.6 Results for Trial Standard Levels 2 through 6 for Class B Equipment

............. 14-9 REFERENCE

..................................................................................................................... ...... 14-13

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commercial Electricity Consumption, Electricity Generation, and El ectricity Capacity

............................................... 14-3 Table 14.3.2 Trial Standard Level 1 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

........................................................................................... 14-3 Table 14.3.3 Trial Standard Level 2 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

........................................................................................... 14-4 Table 14.3.4 Trial Standard Level 3 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

........................................................................................... 14-4 Table 14.3.5 Trial Standard Level 4 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

........................................................................................... 14-4 Table 14.3.6 Trial Standard Level 5 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

........................................................................................... 14-5 Table 14.3.7 Trial Standard Level 6 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

........................................................................................... 14-5 Table 14.3.8 Trial Standard Level 7 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

........................................................................................... 14-6 Table 14.3.9 Trial Standard Level 1 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

........................................................................................... 14-8 Table 14.3.10 Trial Standard Level 2 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

......................................................................................... 14-10 Table 14.3.11 Trial Standard Level 3 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

......................................................................................... 14-10 Table 14.3.12 Trial Standard Level 4 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

......................................................................................... 14-10

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### Table 14.3.13 Trial Standard Level 5 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ......................................................................................... 14-11 Table 14.3.14 Trial Standard Level 6 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ......................................................................................... 14-11

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### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) anal yzed the effects of energy conservation standards for beverage vending machines on the electric utility indus try. DOE conducted the utility impact analysis using Energy Inform ation Administration’s (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a public domain, multi-sec tor, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. For more information on NEMS, re fer to DOE EIA documentation. More detailed and current documentation of various sub-models within NEMS can be obtained from EIA’s website, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oi af/forecasting.html . Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a reference energy forecast for th e United States, published in the Annual Energy Outlook

. 1 

### The Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Refe rence Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook ( AEO2009-B) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030.

DOE used a variant of this NEMS model, referred to as NEMS-Building Technologies (NEMS-BT), to account for the impact of amended energy conservation standards on the reference energy forecast. DOE/EIA approves the use of NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to c ode or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run un der various policy scenario s that are variations of DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS-BT). The NEMS-BT reference case was modeled after the AEO2009-B reference case, which shows only slight differences from the AEO reference case. The utility impact anal ysis consists of a co mparison between model results for the reference case and for the po licy cases in which amended energy conservation standards are in place. In the discussion belo w, the phrase “reference case” should be understood to refer to the NEMS-BT reference case.

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its use in the analysis of national energy conservation standards. Th e model uses a set of assumpti ons that are well known and fairly transparent because of the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the mode ling of interactions among the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy conservation standards. Perhap s most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which yield a more accu rate estimate of the ac tual impacts of energy conservation standards compared to considering only average effects.

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY

DOE’s utility impact analysis applies the same basic se t of assumptions as the AEO2009-B

. For example, the operating characteristics (energy c onversion efficiency, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants are as specified in the AEO2009-B reference case. The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity a nd generation by fuel type that result from each trial standard level (TSL) as we ll as changes in electricity sales to the commercial sector.

The utility analysis uses the AEO2009-B Reference Case as the base case and treats the energy conservation standards on be verage vending machine equipment as variations in policy.

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### The effect of the policy is calculated as the di fference in the reference case and the proposed energy conservation standards case. Because the implementation of energy conservation standards for beverage vending machine equipmen t reduces the electricity demand by less than 0.1 percent (in the range of 0.0006 to 0.0143 perc ent in 2025 for Class A equipment, and 0.0002 to 0.0057 percent in 2025 for Class B equipment, depending on the TSL) in any given year, its effect is difficult to measure adequately in the NEMS simulations. Therefor e, larger reductions in demand are modeled, and results for the TSLs are interpolated. The effects are assumed to be linear within the range of interpolation.

In its analysis of energy conservation standards for beverage vending machine equipment, DOE adjusted the annual end-use en ergy consumption for refrigeration that was predicted within the commercial sector module of NEMS-BT. These decrements in the annual consumption were made for each census division using the method for computing energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (chapter 11). The cha nges in annual consumption were translated into changes in hourly system load as part of the normal NEMS modeling process using the NEMS’ standard commercial building refrigeration shapes.

As mentioned above, the magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results, outside the range of numerical noise, is larger than the highest energy conservation standard under consideration. The numerical noise stems in part from the inability to balance the demand and supply sides of NE MS, given the iterati ve nature of the solution process. Therefore, DOE estimated result s corresponding to the TS L using interpolation. DOE implemented reductions to bot h the commercial refrigeration end uses at multiples of the proposed standards and linearly interpolated actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard from these outputs. In this analysis , the total savings for Class A beverage vending machine equipment were estimated through interpol ation of the impacts of effects 18.7, 28.1, and 37.5 times greater than the actual expected impact s. In the case of Clas s B equipment under TSL 6, the multipliers used in this an alysis were 47.0, 70.5, and 93.0. Appendix K, Estimation of Utility and Environmental Results from NEMS-BT Output , provides details of th e interpolation method and how the multiples were selected.

The terminal year of the NEMS-BT model is 2030, impacts beyond which are typically extrapolated based on the pattern of electricity savi ngs (in kWh) expected for a particular standard. The extrapolation was based on a comparison of the change in th e NEMS-BT variable ( e.g. , coalfired generation) to the change in electricity sa vings over 2025–203 0. As a first step to implement the method, the changes in electricity savings over three periods—2030 to 2035, 2035 to 2040, and 2040 to 2042—are usually expressed as ratios to the change in electric ity savings over 2025–2030. The changes in a utility-sector va riable can then be multiplied by these ratios to estimate the changes after 2030. However, in the case of beverage vending machine equipment in 2025, shipment rate is constant and all machines on the market will comp ly with the standards established in this rule. Consequently, the net energy consumption from 20 25–2042 is constant; as a result, the impact on U.S. electricity generatio n (expressed in terawatt-hours (TWh) and installed generation capacity (expressed in gigawatts (GW)) is also constant.

14.3 RESULTS

The results from the reference case are shown in Table 14.3.1.

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### Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commercial Electricity Consumption, Electricity Generation, and Electricity Capacity NEMS-BT Results 2005 * 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh ** Electricity Sales 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,621 1,741 1,864 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh † Coal 2,014 2,021 2,137 2,200 2,204 Petroleum 122 56 47 49 50 Gas 757 790 664 729 921 Nuclear 782 809 831 877 883 Renewables 371 480 658 719 784 Total 4,045 4,157 4,338 4,573 4,840 2,309 50 993 890 811 5,053 Installed Generating Capacity, GW †† Fossil Steam †† 430.9 439.3 418.5 420.2 420.2 Combined Cycle 169.3 194.8 196.3 196.9 221.4 Combustion Turbines 130.3 138.4 133.6 139.8 160.8 Nuclear 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.4 110.4 Renewables 115.0 147.0 177.0 177.1 179.3 Total 945.6 1,020.9 1,029.5 1,044.4 1,092.2 430.3 237.2 185.4 110.0 181.8 1,144.8
* NEMS-BT reports 2005 values that are close to those shown in EIA’s Annual Energy Review 2006

. ** Comparable to panel in Table A8 of AEO 2008, Electri city Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions, that displays electricity sales by sector. † Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009-B : Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions. Includes generation from electricity-only, combined heat and power, and end-use generators. †† Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2009-B : Electricity Generating Capacity. Fossil steam includes coal steam and other fossil fuel steam plants.



### 14.3.1 Results for Class A Equipment

Results for the various TSLs for Class A e quipment are presented in Table 14.3.2 through Table 14.3.8. Each table shows forecasts using inte rpolated results as described in section 14.2 for commercial sector energy sa les, total U.S. electricity ge neration, and installed capacity.

Table 14.3.2 Trial Standard Level 1 Utilit y Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.0131 -0.0246 -0.0306 -0.0312 -0.0317 -0.0324 -0.0327 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0021 -0.0054 -0.0094 -0.0155 -0.0210 -0.0280 -0.0313 Petroleum -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 0.0009 Gas -0.0124 -0.0199 -0.0189 -0.0114 -0.0047 0.0040 0.0080 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0006 -0.0017 0.0001 0.0017 0.0038 0.0047 Renewables 0.0025 0.0034 0.0022 -0.0012 -0.0041 -0.0080 -0.0098 Total -0.0122 -0.0227 -0.0279 -0.0277 -0.0277 -0.0275 -0.0275 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0010 0.0011 0.0004 -0.0009 -0.0021 -0.0037 -0.0044 Combined Cycle -0.0001 -0.0011 -0.0028 -0.0051 -0.0072 -0.0099 -0.0111 Combustion Turbines -0.0010 -0.0004 0.0017 0.0050 0.0080 0.0118 0.0135 Nuclear -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 Renewables -0.0001 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0006 -0.0008 -0.0010 -0.0011 Total -0.0003 -0.0007 -0.0012 -0.0018 -0.0023 -0.0029 -0.0032

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### Table 14.3.3 Trial Standard Level 2 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.0627 -0.1176 -0.1465 -0.1492 -0.1517 -0.1548 -0.1563 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0100 -0.0259 -0.0449 -0.0743 -0.1004 -0.1340 -0.1498 Petroleum -0.0008 -0.0010 -0.0004 0.0009 0.0020 0.0035 0.0042 Gas -0.0593 -0.0951 -0.0904 -0.0543 -0.0223 0.0189 0.0383 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0028 -0.0080 0.0005 0.0082 0.0180 0.0226 Renewables 0.0118 0.0164 0.0105 -0.0055 -0.0198 -0.0382 -0.0468 Total -0.0583 -0.1084 -0.1332 -0.1327 -0.1323 -0.1317 -0.1315 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0047 0.0052 0.0019 -0.0045 -0.0102 -0.0175 -0.0209 Combined Cycle -0.0005 -0.0052 -0.0134 -0.0245 -0.0344 -0.0472 -0.0532 Combustion Turbines -0.0049 -0.0017 0.0083 0.0241 0.0382 0.0562 0.0647 Nuclear -0.0003 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0007 -0.0008 -0.0010 -0.0010 Renewables -0.0005 -0.0013 -0.0021 -0.0029 -0.0037 -0.0046 -0.0050 Total -0.0015 -0.0036 -0.0059 -0.0086 -0.0110 -0.0140 -0.0154


### Table 14.3.4 Trial Standard Level 3 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.1388 -0.2604 -0.3242 -0.3302 -0.3356 -0.3426 -0.3459 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0222 -0.0574 -0.0993 -0.1644 -0.2221 -0.2965 -0.3315 Petroleum -0.0017 -0.0022 -0.0010 0.0019 0.0045 0.0078 0.0093 Gas -0.1312 -0.2106 -0.2000 -0.1202 -0.0494 0.0418 0.0848 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0062 -0.0178 0.0012 0.0181 0.0398 0.0501 Renewables 0.0260 0.0363 0.0232 -0.0123 -0.0438 -0.0845 -0.1036 Total -0.1291 -0.2400 -0.2949 -0.2938 -0.2928 -0.2915 -0.2909 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0105 0.0115 0.0041 -0.0100 -0.0225 -0.0387 -0.0463 Combined Cycle -0.0011 -0.0115 -0.0296 -0.0543 -0.0762 -0.1044 -0.1177 Combustion Turbines -0.0109 -0.0039 0.0184 0.0534 0.0845 0.1244 0.1433 Nuclear -0.0006 -0.0010 -0.0014 -0.0016 -0.0019 -0.0022 -0.0023 Renewables -0.0012 -0.0029 -0.0047 -0.0065 -0.0081 -0.0102 -0.0111 Total -0.0033 -0.0079 -0.0131 -0.0190 -0.0242 -0.0310 -0.0341


### Table 14.3.5 Trial Standard Level 4 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.2140 -0.4014 -0.4997 -0.5091 -0.5174 -0.5281 -0.5332 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0343 -0.0884 -0.1531 -0.2534 -0.3424 -0.4571 -0.5111 Petroleum -0.0026 -0.0033 -0.0015 0.0029 0.0069 0.0120 0.0143 Gas -0.2022 -0.3246 -0.3083 -0.1853 -0.0761 0.0645 0.1307 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0096 -0.0275 0.0019 0.0279 0.0614 0.0772 Renewables 0.0401 0.0560 0.0358 -0.0189 -0.0676 -0.1302 -0.1597

14-4 BVM_FINAL_FR_TSD_Chapter14_08-14-09.docTotal -0.1990 -0.3700 -0.4546 -0.4529 -0.4514 -0.4494 -0.4485 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0162 0.0177 0.0064 -0.0154 -0.0347 -0.0596 -0.0713 Combined Cycle -0.0017 -0.0178 -0.0457 -0.0837 -0.1175 -0.1610 -0.1814 Combustion Turbines -0.0168 -0.0059 0.0284 0.0823 0.1302 0.1918 0.2209 Nuclear -0.0009 -0.0016 -0.0021 -0.0025 -0.0029 -0.0033 -0.0036 Renewables -0.0019 -0.0045 -0.0072 -0.0100 -0.0125 -0.0157 -0.0172 Total -0.0050 -0.0122 -0.0203 -0.0293 -0.0374 -0.0477 -0.0526


### Table 14.3.6 Trial Standard Level 5 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.2530 -0.4746 -0.5909 -0.6019 -0.6118 -0.6244 -0.6304 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0405 -0.1045 -0.1811 -0.2996 -0.4049 -0.5404 -0.6043 Petroleum -0.0030 -0.0039 -0.0018 0.0035 0.0081 0.0141 0.0170 Gas -0.2391 -0.3838 -0.3645 -0.2191 -0.0900 0.0762 0.1546 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0113 -0.0325 0.0022 0.0330 0.0726 0.0913 Renewables 0.0474 0.0662 0.0424 -0.0224 -0.0799 -0.1540 -0.1888 Total -0.2353 -0.4374 -0.5375 -0.5355 -0.5337 -0.5314 -0.5303 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0192 0.0209 0.0075 -0.0182 -0.0410 -0.0705 -0.0843 Combined Cycle -0.0020 -0.0210 -0.0540 -0.0990 -0.1389 -0.1903 -0.2145 Combustion Turbines -0.0199 -0.0070 0.0336 0.0973 0.1539 0.2268 0.2612 Nuclear -0.0010 -0.0019 -0.0025 -0.0030 -0.0034 -0.0040 -0.0042 Renewables -0.0022 -0.0054 -0.0086 -0.0119 -0.0148 -0.0185 -0.0203 Total -0.0059 -0.0144 -0.0240 -0.0347 -0.0442 -0.0564 -0.0622


### Table 14.3.7 Trial Standard Level 6 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.2789 -0.5231 -0.6513 -0.6635 -0.6743 -0.6883 -0.6948 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0413 -0.1071 -0.1866 -0.3096 -0.4189 -0.5596 -0.6258 Petroleum -0.0031 -0.0040 -0.0018 0.0036 0.0084 0.0146 0.0175 Gas -0.2440 -0.3932 -0.3757 -0.2265 -0.0939 0.0767 0.1571 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0117 -0.0336 0.0026 0.0348 0.0762 0.0957 Renewables 0.0291 0.0339 0.0052 -0.0603 -0.1186 -0.1935 -0.2288 Total -0.2593 -0.4821 -0.5924 -0.5902 -0.5882 -0.5857 -0.5845 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0211 0.0230 0.0083 -0.0200 -0.0452 -0.0777 -0.0929 Combined Cycle -0.0022 -0.0232 -0.0595 -0.1091 -0.1531 -0.2098 -0.2365 Combustion Turbines -0.0219 -0.0077 0.0370 0.1072 0.1697 0.2500 0.2879 Nuclear -0.0011 -0.0021 -0.0027 -0.0033 -0.0037 -0.0044 -0.0046 Renewables -0.0024 -0.0059 -0.0094 -0.0131 -0.0163 -0.0204 -0.0224 Total -0.0065 -0.0159 -0.0264 -0.0382 -0.0487 -0.0622 -0.0686

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### Table 14.3.8 Trial Standard Level 7 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.3392 -0.6362 -0.7921 -0.8069 -0.8201 -0.8371 -0.8451 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0503 -0.1303 -0.2270 -0.3766 -0.5095 -0.6806 -0.7612 Petroleum -0.0038 -0.0049 -0.0022 0.0043 0.0102 0.0177 0.0213 Gas -0.2967 -0.4783 -0.4569 -0.2754 -0.1142 0.0932 0.1910 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0142 -0.0408 0.0032 0.0423 0.0926 0.1163 Renewables 0.0354 0.0412 0.0064 -0.0734 -0.1442 -0.2354 -0.2783 Total -0.3154 -0.5864 -0.7206 -0.7178 -0.7154 -0.7123 -0.7109 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0257 0.0280 0.0101 -0.0244 -0.0550 -0.0944 -0.1130 Combined Cycle -0.0027 -0.0282 -0.0724 -0.1327 -0.1862 -0.2551 -0.2876 Combustion Turbines -0.0267 -0.0094 0.0450 0.1304 0.2064 0.3041 0.3501 Nuclear -0.0014 -0.0025 -0.0033 -0.0040 -0.0046 -0.0053 -0.0056 Renewables -0.0029 -0.0072 -0.0115 -0.0159 -0.0198 -0.0249 -0.0272 Total -0.0080 -0.0193 -0.0321 -0.0465 -0.0592 -0.0756 -0.0834



### 14.3.2 Impacts Related to Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – Trial Standard Level 1

Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts for all be verage vending machine equipment under TSL 1, the level that approximately corresponds to the ENERGY STAR Tier 2 rating. The top line of Table 14.3.2 shows that under TSL 1, total commercial electricity use in TWh declines by 0.0131 TWh in 2015 and by 0.0312 TWh in 2030.

The reductions in total commercial electricity generation (shown as the last line in the second panel of the table) are slig htly different than the reductions in commercial electricity use (shown in the first line of the table). These differe nces are to due to the net impact of various factors at the energy system level. The NEMS m odel suggests that electricity prices generally decline slightly following the implementation of the standard. These price changes lead to very small increases in demand for all major end-use s ectors (residential, industrial, and commercial). In the NEMS-BT commercial sector model, the re sponse to higher electricity prices is modeled in two ways. First, the selection of more effici ent equipment is prompted when new buildings are constructed or when equipment is replaced in existing buildings. Second, a general behavioral response to higher prices is modeled via a price elasticity in which a percentage increase in prices (x) is reflected by a different percen tage reduction in consumption (y). For most commercial end uses, this price elasticity (y/x) is approximately -0.15. An offsetting factor at the system level, however, is that some change s in generation also reflect transmission and distribution losses that respond to highe r or lower sales to end users.

As expected, total generation falls in a nearly continuous fashion with respect to the lower electricity demand prompted by the energy cons ervation standard. Howeve r, for the individual generation technologies by fuel type, the responses are much more varied . In the long term ( e.g. , by 2030), the NEMS-BT model sugges ts that there may be significant changes, compared to the reference case, between plants serving primarily ba se load uses (principa lly coal and nuclear) and plants using other fuels. The beverage vending machine energy conservation standards for Class A

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### equipment generally reduce base load (and thus off-peak) electricity demand. This change in the load profile reduces the attractiveness of coal and, to a lesser extent, nuclear plants.

In the near term (through 2020), the NEMS -BT model suggests slightly different behavior. Electricity generation from natural gas and coal plants is lower than that in the reference case. Nuclear genera tion is relatively unchanged, refl ecting the inability of that segment of the industry to adjust quickly to chan ges in demand. In general, because there is less opportunity over the next decade (through 2020) to bu ild new plants and optimize the electricity supply system to meet the altered character of the load, other institutio nal and economic factors may be more relevant in how various generating facilities are dispatched.

The bottom panel of results in Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts on generating capacity by type of generation technology. Total genera tion capacity is lower by about 0.0018 GW in 2030, roughly a 0.0002 percent decline from the reference case.

The components of total capacity are distinguish ed by type of generation technology rather than strictly fuel type. Fossil fu el steam plants are primarily coal fired but include some petroleum use. High efficiency, combined-cycle plants and combustion turbines both use natural gas.

Because coal plants are primarily used to meet base loads, the capacity of this type of plant shows a relatively large dec line over the next two decades. Co mpared to the reference case, the total generation capacity of coal plants decl ines (relative to the refe rence case) throughout the forecast period and is lower by about 0.0009 GW by 2030. Nuclear plants, which are also used to meet base loads, are projected to see a cap acity decline of 0.0002 GW by the same date.

As opposed to combined cycle power plant capacity, combustion turbine capacity is higher than the reference case. Because the ove rall load profile shows a higher proportion of weather-related electricity consumption, combustion turbine capacity in 2030 is about 0.0050 GW higher than the reference case. Combined cy cle plants witness a decline in capacity of 0.0051 GW as they tend to be slightly less weathe r-related than combustion turbines. Generation capacity from renewables s lightly declines by 0.0006 GW. Any comparison between the generation and capacity impacts shown in the tabl e is complicated because various types of generating plants operate for diffe rent numbers of hours during the year. Base load plants such as fossil fuel steam and nuclear are relatively co mparable, as they operate for roughly the same number of hours during the year . Because renewables comprise a number of technologies with various operating hours, it is no t surprising to see a divergence between the behavior of generation and capacity at th is aggregate level.

14.3.3 Results for Trial Standard Levels 2 through 7 for Class A Equipment

Error! Not a valid bookmark self-reference. through Table 14.3.8 show the estimated impacts for TSLs 2–7. Co rresponding to TSL 6, Table 14.3.7 shows the impacts associated with energy conservation standards selected to match the maximum energy savings level with a net present value greater than zero le vel for Class A beverage vending machine equipment. As shown in this table, compared to the reference case, total generation in 2030 would decline by about 0.5902 TWh. The major reductions in generation occur at coal, nucle ar, gas, and renewable energy

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### facilities. Total generation capacity falls by 0.0382 GW relative to the reference case or about 0.0033 percent.

In TSL 7, the standards for the Class A bevera ge vending machine equipment are set to the maximum (technologically feasible) level. The im pacts from this case are shown in Table 14.3.8. In this case, the 2030 impact on total generation is approximately 22 percent greater than that of TSL 6, or 0.7178 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.0465 GW, compared to the reference

case.

14.3.4 Results for Class B Equipment

Results for the various TSLs for Class B E quipment are presented in the tables and sections, below.

14.3.5 Impacts Related to Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – Trial Standard Level 1

Table 14.3.9 shows the impacts for all commer cial refrigeration equipment under TSL 1. The top line of Table 14.3.9 shows that under TSL 1, total commercial electri city use declines by 0.0053 TWh in 2015 and by 0.0126 TWh in 2030.

Table 14.3.9 Trial Standard Level 1 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.0053 -0.0099 -0.0124 -0.0126 -0.0128 -0.0131 -0.0132 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0009 -0.0022 -0.0038 -0.0062 -0.0084 -0.0112 -0.0125 Petroleum 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 Gas -0.0050 -0.0081 -0.0076 -0.0046 -0.0018 0.0017 0.0033 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0002 -0.0007 0.0001 0.0007 0.0015 0.0019 Renewables 0.0010 0.0014 0.0009 -0.0005 -0.0017 -0.0032 -0.0039 Total -0.0049 -0.0092 -0.0112 -0.0112 -0.0112 -0.0111 -0.0111 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0009 -0.0015 -0.0018 Combined Cycle 0.0000 -0.0004 -0.0011 -0.0021 -0.0029 -0.0040 -0.0045 Combustion Turbines -0.0004 -0.0001 0.0007 0.0020 0.0032 0.0047 0.0055 Nuclear 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 Renewables 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0004 Total -0.0001 -0.0003 -0.0005 -0.0007 -0.0009 -0.0012 -0.0013


### As with Class A equipment, the reductions in total commercial electricity generation (shown as the last line in the sec ond panel of the table) are sligh tly different than the reductions in commercial electricity use (the first line of the table). As exp ected, total generation falls in a nearly continuous fashion with respect to the lower electricity demand prompted by the energy conservation standard. However, for the individu al generation technologies by fuel type, the responses are much more varied. In the long term ( e.g. , by 2030), the NEMS-BT model suggests that there may be significant changes compared to the reference case between plants serving primarily base load uses (princip ally coal and nuclear) and plants using other fuels. The beverage

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### vending machine energy conservation standards for Class B equipment generally reduce base load (and thus off-peak) electricity demand. Th is change in the load profile reduces the attractiveness of coal and nuclear plants.

In the near term (through 2020), the NEMS -BT model suggests slightly different behavior. Electricity generation from natural gas plants is somewhat lower than that in the reference case. Nuclear genera tion is relatively unchanged, refl ecting the inability of that segment of the industry to adjust quickly to chan ges in demand. In general, because there is less opportunity over the next decade (through 2020) to bu ild new plants and optimize the electricity supply system to meet the altered character of the load, other institutio nal and economic factors may be more relevant in how various generating facilities are dispatched.

The bottom panel of results in Table 14.3.9 shows the impacts on generating capacity by type of generation technology. Total genera tion capacity is lower by about 0.0007 GW in 2030, roughly a 0.0001 percent decline from the reference case.
The components of total cap acity are distinguished by t ype of generation technology rather than strictly by fuel type. Fossil fuel steam plants are primarily coal fired but also include some petroleum use. High efficiency, combined-c ycle plants and combustion turbines both use natural gas.
Because coal plants are primarily used to meet base loads, the capacity of this type of plant shows a decline over the next two decades . Compared to the reference case, the total generation capacity of coal plants declines (relative to the refe rence case) throughout the forecast period and is lower by about 0.0004 GW by 2030. Nucl ear plants, which are also used to meet base loads, are projected to see a capac ity decline of 0.0001 GW by the same date.
As opposed to combined cycle power plant capacity, combustion turbine capacity is higher than the reference case. Because the ove rall load profile shows a higher proportion of weather-related electricity c onsumption, combustion turbine capacity in 2030 is about 0.0020 GW higher than the reference case. Combined cycle plants witne ss a roughly equivalent decline in capacity of 0.0021 GW , as they tend to be sligh tly less weather- related than combustion turbines. Generation capacity from renewables slightly declines by 0.0002 GW. Any comparison between the generati on and capacity impacts shown in the table is complicated because various types of generating plants operate for different numbers of hours during the year. Base load plants such as fossil fuel steam and nuclear are relatively comparable, as they operate for roughly the same number of hours dur ing the year. Because renewables comprise a number of technologies with va rious operating hours, there appears a divergence between the behavior of generation and capaci ty at this aggregate level.

14.3.6 Results for Trial Standard Levels 2 through 6 for Class B Equipment

Error! Not a valid b ookmark self-reference. through Table 14.3.14 show the estimated impacts for TSLs 2–6. Corresponding to TSL 4, Ta ble 14.3.12 shows the imp acts associated with energy conservation standards selected to ma ximize energy savings while maintaining a netpresent value that is nearly zero for the Class B beverage vending machine equipment. As shown in this table, compared to the reference case, total generation in 2030 would decline by about 0.0955 TWh. The major reductions in generation occur at coal, gas, and renewable energy

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### facilities. Total genera tion capacity falls by 0.0062 GW relative to the reference case or about 0.0005 percent.

Table 14.3.10 Trial Standard Level 2 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.0079 -0.0147 -0.0184 -0.0187 -0.0190 -0.0194 -0.0196 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0013 -0.0033 -0.0056 -0.0093 -0.0125 -0.0166 -0.0186 Petroleum 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 Gas -0.0075 -0.0120 -0.0113 -0.0068 -0.0027 0.0025 0.0050 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0004 -0.0010 0.0001 0.0010 0.0023 0.0029 Renewables 0.0015 0.0021 0.0013 -0.0007 -0.0025 -0.0048 -0.0059 Total -0.0073 -0.0136 -0.0167 -0.0166 -0.0166 -0.0165 -0.0165 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0006 0.0006 0.0002 -0.0006 -0.0013 -0.0022 -0.0026 Combined Cycle -0.0001 -0.0007 -0.0017 -0.0031 -0.0043 -0.0059 -0.0067 Combustion Turbines -0.0006 -0.0002 0.0010 0.0030 0.0048 0.0070 0.0081 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 Renewables -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0006 Total -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0007 -0.0011 -0.0014 -0.0018 -0.0019


### Table 14.3.11 Trial Standard Level 3 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.0395 -0.0740 -0.0921 -0.0939 -0.0954 -0.0974 -0.0983 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0064 -0.0164 -0.0283 -0.0465 -0.0627 -0.0835 -0.0934 Petroleum -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0001 0.0001 0.0003 0.0006 0.0007 Gas -0.0376 -0.0602 -0.0569 -0.0340 -0.0137 0.0125 0.0249 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0018 -0.0051 0.0004 0.0053 0.0115 0.0145 Renewables 0.0075 0.0104 0.0066 -0.0035 -0.0124 -0.0240 -0.0294 Total -0.0367 -0.0682 -0.0838 -0.0835 -0.0832 -0.0829 -0.0827 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0030 0.0033 0.0012 -0.0028 -0.0064 -0.0110 -0.0131 Combined Cycle -0.0003 -0.0033 -0.0084 -0.0154 -0.0217 -0.0297 -0.0335 Combustion Turbines -0.0031 -0.0011 0.0052 0.0152 0.0240 0.0354 0.0407 Nuclear -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0007 Renewables -0.0003 -0.0008 -0.0013 -0.0018 -0.0023 -0.0029 -0.0032 Total -0.0009 -0.0022 -0.0037 -0.0054 -0.0069 -0.0088 -0.0097


### Table 14.3.12 Trial Standard Level 4 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case 2015 2020 2025 2030 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.0451 -0.0846 -0.1054 -0.1073 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0073 -0.0188 -0.0323 -0.0532 Extrapolation 2035 2040 2042

-0.1091 -0.1114 -0.1124

-0.0717 -0.0955 -0.1068

14-10 BVM_FINAL_FR_TSD_Chapter14_08-14-09.docPetroleum -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0001 0.0001 0.0004 0.0007 0.0008 Gas -0.0430 -0.0688 -0.0651 -0.0389 -0.0156 0.0143 0.0285 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0020 -0.0058 0.0005 0.0060 0.0132 0.0166 Renewables 0.0085 0.0119 0.0076 -0.0040 -0.0142 -0.0274 -0.0336 Total -0.0420 -0.0780 -0.0959 -0.0955 -0.0952 -0.0948 -0.0946 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0034 Combined Cycle -0.0004 Combustion Turbines -0.0035 Nuclear -0.0002 Renewables -0.0004 Total -0.0011 0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0013 -0.0003 -0.0010 -0.0026 0.0013 -0.0096 0.0060 -0.0004 -0.0015 -0.0043 -0.0032 -0.0177 0.0174 -0.0005 -0.0021 -0.0062 -0.0073 -0.0248 0.0275 -0.0006 -0.0026 -0.0079 -0.0126 -0.0339 0.0405 -0.0007 -0.0033 -0.0101 -0.0150 -0.0383 0.0466 -0.0008 -0.0036 -0.0111


### Table 14.3.13 Trial Standard Level 5 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.1215 -0.2278 -0.2837 -0.2890 -0.2937 -0.2998 -0.3027 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0196 -0.0505 -0.0871 -0.1432 -0.1930 -0.2572 -0.2874 Petroleum -0.0005 -0.0007 -0.0004 0.0003 0.0010 0.0018 0.0022 Gas -0.1158 -0.1853 -0.1753 -0.1047 -0.0420 0.0386 0.0767 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0055 -0.0157 0.0012 0.0162 0.0355 0.0446 Renewables 0.0230 0.0320 0.0204 -0.0107 -0.0383 -0.0738 -0.0906 Total -0.1129 -0.2100 -0.2581 -0.2571 -0.2562 -0.2551 -0.2546 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0092 0.0100 0.0036 -0.0087 -0.0197 -0.0338 -0.0405 Combined Cycle -0.0010 -0.0101 -0.0259 -0.0475 -0.0667 -0.0914 -0.1030 Combustion Turbines -0.0096 -0.0034 0.0161 0.0467 0.0739 0.1089 0.1254 Nuclear -0.0005 -0.0009 -0.0012 -0.0014 -0.0016 -0.0019 -0.0020 Renewables -0.0011 -0.0026 -0.0041 -0.0057 -0.0071 -0.0089 -0.0098 Total -0.0029 -0.0069 -0.0115 -0.0166 -0.0212 -0.0271 -0.0299


### Table 14.3.14 Trial Standard Level 6 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption, TWh Electricity Sales -0.1353 -0.2537 -0.3159 -0.3218 -0.3271 -0.3338 -0.3370 U.S. Electricity Generation, TWh Coal -0.0218 -0.0562 -0.0970 -0.1595 -0.2150 -0.2864 -0.3201 Petroleum -0.0005 -0.0007 -0.0004 0.0004 0.0011 0.0020 0.0024 Gas -0.1290 -0.2064 -0.1952 -0.1166 -0.0468 0.0430 0.0854 Nuclear 0.0000 -0.0061 -0.0174 0.0014 0.0180 0.0395 0.0497 Renewables 0.0256 0.0356 0.0227 -0.0119 -0.0427 -0.0822 -0.1009 Total -0.1258 -0.2339 -0.2874 -0.2863 -0.2853 -0.2841 -0.2835 Installed Generating Capacity, GW Fossil Steam 0.0102 0.0112 0.0040 -0.0097 -0.0219 -0.0377 -0.0451 Combined Cycle -0.0011 -0.0112 -0.0289 -0.0529 -0.0743 -0.1017 -0.1147 Combustion Turbines -0.0106 -0.0038 0.0179 0.0520 0.0823 0.1213 0.1396 Nuclear -0.0006 -0.0010 -0.0013 -0.0016 -0.0018 -0.0021 -0.0023 Renewables -0.0012 -0.0029 -0.0046 -0.0063 -0.0079 -0.0099 -0.0109 Total -0.0032 -0.0077 -0.0128 -0.0185 -0.0236 -0.0302 -0.0333

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### Table 14.3.13 shows impacts under TSL 5 for all Class B beverage vending machine products considered in this rulemaking. TSL 5 corre sponds to an intermediate energy efficiency level. In this intermedia te case, the 2030 impact on total genera tion is more than twice than that for TSL 4, or 0.2571 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.0166 GW compared to the reference case. The cause of this distinctly larger impact is because implementation of LED lighting at this TSL level significan tly increases projected savings.

In TSL 6, the standards for the Class B beve rage vending machine equipment set to the maximum (technologically feasible) level. The impacts from this case are shown in Table 14.3.14. In this case, the 2030 impact on total gene ration is approximately 11 percent greater than that of TSL 5, or 0.2863 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.0185 GW compared to the reference case.

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### REFERENCE

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Ene rgy Information Administration. An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecti ng Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook . April 2009. Washington, D.C. SR/OIAF/2009-03.

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