Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**Author: Date Created:**  **Date Modified: Purpose:** 

**Worksheet** AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 FileInfo 1Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

United States Department of Energy 2/5/2013 Not modified. Contains emissions data used in the Social Cost of Carbon analysis for Manufacturers.

**Contents** Contains Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions, Reference case from the EIA's National Energy Modeling system.

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 FileInfo 2Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions 2010**  **2011 2012**  **2013 Net Generation by Fuel Type**  **Electric Power Sector 1/ Power Only 2/**  Coal 1796.671997 1687.937988 1503.213989 1565.713867 Petroleum 32.367001 24.08 17.303053 17.19346 Natural Gas 3/ 778.797974 809.166077 1012.470398 887.510681 Nuclear Power 806.968994 790.224976 769.996948 775.18158 Pumped Storage/Other 4/ 1.764999 1.352999 2.476138 2.467784 Renewable Sources 5/ 392.363983 484.078979 455.992798 476.389801 Distributed Generation (Natural Gas) 0 0 0 0 **Total 3808.934814** **3796.841309 3761.453125** **3724.457275 Combined Heat and Power 6/**  Coal 31.064796 26.847858 27.918701 28.668921 Petroleum 2.311924 2.14251 0.66282 0.665028 Natural Gas 122.591736 120.816185 130.349442 128.847748 Renewable Sources 4.570631 4.487894 3.575722 3.628398 **Total 163.439774**  **157.401093 162.506699**  **161.810104 Total Electric Power Sector Generation**  **3972.374512 3954.242432** **3923.959717 3886.267334**  Less Direct Use 16.754797 12.464993 13.1991 13.158128 **Net Available to the Grid 3955.619629** **3941.777344 3910.760498** **3873.109131 End-Use Sector 7/**  Coal 19.552734 15.489598 15.549565 15.549565 Petroleum 2.383996 1.975477 2.414142 2.414142 Natural Gas 68.837242 70.422203 74.924599 77.719048 Other Gaseous Fuels 8/ 10.263549 10.777761 10.787063 10.787063 Renewable Sources 9/ 33.024242 37.251308 42.768135 48.004204 Other 10/ 4.298178 4.454875 3.59304 3.629747 **Total End-Use Sector Generation 138.35994**  **140.371231 150.03653**  **158.103775** Less Direct Use 99.740166 103.356865 112.153297 119.830681 **Total Sales to the Grid 38.61977**  **37.014347 37.883247**  **38.273113 Total Electricity Generation by Fuel**  Coal 1847.289551 1730.275513 1546.682251 1609.932373 Petroleum 37.06292 28.197987 20.380016 20.272631 

### Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions, Reference case **(billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted)**

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 1Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

Natural Gas 970.226929 1000.404419 1217.744385 1094.077393 Nuclear Power 806.968994 790.224976 769.996948 775.18158 Renewable Sources 5,9/ 429.958832 525.818176 502.336639 528.0224 Other 11/ 19.227409 19.692272 16.856241 16.884594 **Total Electricity Generation 4110.734375**  **4094.61377 4073.996338** **4044.371094 Net Generation to the Grid**  **3994.239502 3978.791748** **3948.643799 3911.382324**  **Net Imports 25.680008**  **36.97607 44.992203**  **31.502954 Electricity Sales by Sector**  Residential 1445.71228 1423.699951 1384.3302 1359.092896 Commercial 1330.202271 1319.287842 1328.836426 1309.05542 Industrial 970.867615 975.500305 992.16449 989.935425 Transportation 6.405448 6.486489 6.586908 6.668394 **Total 3753.1875** **3724.974854 3711.918213** **3664.752197** Direct Use 116.494965 115.821854 125.352402 132.988815 **Total Electricity Use 3869.682373** **3840.796631 3837.270508** **3797.740967 End-Use Prices**  **(2011 cents per kilowatthour)** Residential 11.779187 11.715401 11.350603 11.105858 Commercial 10.404068 10.229398 9.711736 9.475292 Industrial 6.912863 6.815722 6.290369 6.19038 Transportation 11.569487 11.18235 10.618129 10.436811 **All Sectors Average 10.03265**  **9.905035 9.410042**  **9.194413 (nominal cents per kilowatthour)**  Residential 11.533201 11.715401 11.552114 11.495303 Commercial 10.186799 10.229398 9.884151 9.80756 Industrial 6.768501 6.815722 6.402043 6.407456 Transportation 11.32788 11.18235 10.806636 10.802795 **All Sectors Average 9.823137**  **9.905035 9.577102**  **9.516831 Prices by Service Category**  **(2011 cents per kilowatthour)** Generation 6.026699 5.765432 5.382906 5.251001 Transmission 1.036694 1.06046 1.049677 1.045151 Distribution 2.96738 3.063709 3.019267 2.980911 **(nominal cents per kilowatthour)** Generation 5.900843 5.765432 5.47847 5.435136 Transmission 1.015045 1.06046 1.068312 1.081802 Distribution 2.905412 3.063709 3.072869 3.085442 **Electric Power Sector Emissions 1/** Sulfur Dioxide (million short tons) 4.998616 4.423977 3.986388 4.031871
EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 2Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

Nitrogen Oxide (million short tons) 2.066 1.939 1.981802 2.093732 Mercury (short tons) 33.138973 31.489607 29.230154 29.825132

category: EIA, AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System run ref2013.d102312a. Projections: EIA, AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System run ref2013.d102312a. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2010 and 2011 electric power sector generation; sales to the grid; net imports; electricity sales; and electricity end-use prices: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012) and supporting databases. 2010 and 2011 emissions: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Clean Air Markets Database. 2010 and 2011 prices by service - - = Not applicable. 6/ Includes combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity and heat to the public (i.e., those that report North American Industry Classification System code 22 or that have a regulatory status). 7/ Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status; and small on-site generating systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the grid. 8/ Includes refinery gas and still gas. 9/ Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, all municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power. 10/ Includes batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and miscellaneous technologies. 11/ Includes pumped storage, non-biogenic municipal waste, refinery gas, still gas, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and miscellaneous technologies. other biomass, solar, and wind power. 1/ Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 2/ Includes plants that only produce electricity and that have a regulatory status. 3/ Includes electricity generation from fuel cells. 4/ Includes non-biogenic municipal waste. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2011 approximately 6 billion kilowatthours of electricity were generated from a municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See U.S. Energy Information Administration, Methodology for Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and Non-Biogenic Energy (Washington, DC, May 2007). 5/ Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas,

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 3Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020**

1570.812866 1567.868286 1476.635742 1523.854614 1557.074463 1593.212158 1613.293335 17.29775 17.381329 16.543032 14.439687 14.641241 14.524823 14.661907 891.141663 907.475342 998.844666 972.337036 956.068359 953.139221 948.19104 788.709106 819.966797 839.925537 859.283813 875.858154 885.088867 884.801636 2.474093 2.475473 2.478292 2.478993 2.478994 2.479488 2.479487 487.57666 496.995361 513.37738 521.533447 529.472534 540.773438 554.571777 0 0.3202 0.651779 1.078899 1.505323 1.96348 2.569602 **3758.012207 3812.483154** **3848.456543 3895.006348** **3937.099121 3991.181396** **4020.568604** 29.64822 30.228724 28.001884 27.15399 26.955803 26.882698 26.776161 0.669951 0.671818 0.640249 0.637527 0.636812 0.636899 0.635927 128.81102 128.87088 129.554169 129.837585 129.745682 129.517029 129.528885 4.010154 3.907197 3.983999 4.018905 4.042433 4.144152 4.007054 **163.139343 163.678619**  **162.180298 161.64801**  **161.380737 161.180771**  **160.948029 3921.151611** **3976.161865 4010.636719** **4056.654297 4098.47998** **4152.362305 4181.516602**  13.440594 13.529589 13.267999 12.633146 12.630435 12.630435 12.630435 **3907.710938 3962.632324** **3997.368652 4044.02124** **4085.849609 4139.731934**  **4168.88623**
15.549565 15.549565 15.549565 15.549565 15.549565 15.549565 15.549565 2.084682 2.084682 2.084682 2.084682 2.084682 2.084682 2.084682 93.081375 95.162704 97.184174 98.638496 100.276276 102.129715 104.209557 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 52.269341 57.995686 62.201965 64.388535 65.79435 66.977966 68.086571 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 **180.950623 188.758301**  **194.986053 198.626938**  **201.670532 204.707596**  **207.896042** 143.719559 151.024948 156.94519 160.270157 163.055771 165.838181 168.760117 **37.231052 37.73333**  **38.040829 38.356747**  **38.614754 38.869392**  **39.135929**
1616.01062 1613.646606 1520.1871341566.558105 1599.5798341635.644409 1655.619019 20.052383 20.137829 19.267963 17.161896 17.362736 17.246405 17.382517 EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 4Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

1113.034058 1131.829102 1226.234863 1201.89209 1187.595581 1186.749512 1184.499146 788.709106 819.966797 839.925537 859.283813 875.858154 885.088867 884.801636 543.85614 558.898254 579.563354 589.940918 599.309326 611.895569 626.665405 20.439751 20.44113 20.443949 20.444651 20.444651 20.445147 20.445145 **4102.102051 4164.919922** **4205.622559 4255.28125** **4300.150391 4357.069824** **4389.412598 3944.941895** **4000.365723 4035.409424**  **4082.37793 4124.464355** **4178.601562 4208.021973**  **32.448006 27.685553**  **29.50432 28.378649**  **26.487471 24.359766**  **24.083071**
1364.077271 1366.878906 1373.081543 1383.507568 1397.048828 1414.293335 1418.99292 1321.283081 1324.476685 1332.9866941343.021118 1355.065552 1370.27771 1383.5896 1011.946167 1058.036377 1083.597046 1111.194092 1128.084473 1146.700439 1157.918213 6.917739 7.203384 7.534868 7.860848 8.237711 8.517036 8.86875 **3704.224365 3756.595703** **3797.200195 3845.58374** **3888.436523 3939.78833** **3969.369385** 157.160156 164.554535 170.213196 172.903305 175.686203 178.468613 181.390549 **3861.384521 3921.150146**  **3967.41333 4018.487061** **4064.122803 4118.256836** **4150.759766**

11.262155 11.280878 11.456917 11.541519 11.544376 11.478851 11.469589 9.500459 9.462838 9.63217 9.730261 9.773673 9.750408 9.74691 6.157333 6.102188 6.2672 6.358698 6.408795 6.389698 6.387363 10.281062 10.179749 10.240829 10.217548 10.224382 10.153691 10.099875 **9.237361 9.179208**  **9.332959 9.40866**  **9.434618 9.393596**  **9.383507** 11.821002 12.022135 12.400766 12.681928 12.889622 13.01922 13.225231 9.971888 10.084633 10.425693 10.6917 10.91258 11.058835 11.238863 6.462871 6.503158 6.783508 6.986996 7.1556 7.247143 7.365073 10.791226 10.848653 11.084496 11.227136 11.415811 11.516235 11.645857 **9.695735 9.782366**  **10.101832 10.338322**  **10.534017 10.65414**  **10.819834**

5.28707 5.233454 5.393578 5.512089 5.574563 5.570681 5.592065 1.061715 1.07635 1.08405 1.078805 1.076456 1.078229 1.081726 2.972128 2.950673 2.932207 2.894649 2.858124 2.816563 2.780078 5.549423 5.57734 5.837914 6.056734 6.224156 6.318221 6.448039 1.1144 1.147076 1.173357 1.185401 1.201893 1.222919 1.247305 3.11961 3.144559 3.17377 3.180667 3.191176 3.194523 3.205623
3.941396 3.618529 1.178878 1.202659 1.265267 1.33043 1.345312
EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 5Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

2.089612 1.798745 1.619847 1.658333 1.653631 1.709991 1.721988 30.812658 29.85055 6.188142 6.370198 6.556572 6.733572 6.836016

category: EIA, AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System run ref2013.d102312a. Projections: EIA, AEO2013 National Energy Modeling Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012) and supporting databases. 2010 and 2011 emissions: U.S. 6/ Includes combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity and heat to the public (i.e., those that report North American Industry Classification System code 22 or that have a regulatory status). 7/ Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status; and small on-site generating systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation,

10/ Includes batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and miscellaneous technologies. 2011 approximately 6 billion kilowatthours of electricity were generated from a municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See U.S. Energy Information Administration, Methodology 5/ Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas,

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 6Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**2021 2022**  **2023 2024**  **2025 2026**  **2027**

1621.33667 1649.961426 1665.424072 1673.775024 1679.70105 1690.142944 1693.44397 14.74902 14.871799 14.970084 15.064514 14.964256 14.981346 14.94262 948.869202 951.91626 962.105042 978.974487 996.01416 1012.690002 1039.225464 888.739746 894.646606 900.553467 906.459961 912.367798 912.36731 912.366821 2.479983 2.481552 2.482951 2.484457 2.485925 2.4898 2.493958 567.461548 569.037048 572.786865 575.087524 581.647644 584.302124 586.512695 3.170927 3.762595 4.540421 5.304982 6.337409 7.172873 8.453805 **4046.807129 4086.677246** **4122.862793 4157.150879** **4193.518066 4224.146484** **4257.438965** 26.128309 26.608454 26.655249 26.615606 26.881411 26.907986 27.25149 0.635926 0.637082 0.636937 0.637019 0.638155 0.637778 0.639105 130.199539 130.256165 130.592407 130.835846 130.51445 130.430862 129.54631 4.652307 4.402657 4.357877 4.397522 4.421359 4.385772 4.372545 **161.616089 161.904358**  **162.242477 162.485992**  **162.455368 162.362396**  **161.809448 4208.42334** **4248.581543 4285.105469** **4319.636719 4355.973633** **4386.508789 4419.248535**  12.630435 12.630435 12.630435 12.554428 12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 **4195.792969 4235.951172** **4272.475098 4307.08252**  **4343.46582 4374.000977** **4406.740723**
15.549565 15.549565 19.707319 19.915209 20.133492 20.362686 20.603342 2.084682 2.084682 2.084682 2.084813 2.084923 2.085075 2.085228 106.61145 109.295799 112.337997 115.764992 119.624321 123.948044 128.895218 13.827127 13.827127 13.827127 13.827127 13.827127 13.827128 13.827127 69.336929 70.870865 71.785767 73.333389 74.720818 76.100739 77.336197 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 **211.548294 215.766571**  **223.881439 229.064087**  **234.529221 240.462219**  **246.885651** 171.914398 175.761658 182.046997 186.697235 191.589279 192.693665 202.605698 **39.633873 40.004921**  **41.834423 42.366806**  **42.939957 47.768539**  **44.279922**
1663.014526 1692.119385 1711.786621 1720.305786 1726.7160641737.4135741741.298828 17.469627 17.593563 17.691704 17.786346 17.687334 17.704201 17.666954 EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 7Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

1188.851074 1195.230835 1209.575806 1230.880371 1252.4902341274.241699 1306.12085 888.739746 894.646606 900.553467 906.459961 912.367798 912.36731 912.366821 641.450745 644.310547 648.930481 652.81842 660.789856 664.788574 668.221436 20.445639 20.447208 20.448606 20.450113 20.451582 20.455458 20.459616 **4419.97168 4464.348145** **4508.986816 4548.700684**  **4590.50293 4626.971191** **4666.134277 4235.426758** **4275.956055 4314.30957** **4349.449219 4386.405762** **4421.769531 4451.020508**  **29.658516 27.789957**  **24.976051 24.136948**  **21.568264 21.460188**  **17.514164**
1429.161255 1441.731689 1456.189209 1471.384033 1487.633301 1503.521118 1520.609985 1396.818604 1409.701294 1423.945068 1438.768555 1455.371948 1472.042725 1488.357666 1167.717407 1180.857544 1185.1152341187.157227 1185.999512 1186.047485 1175.582764 9.259559 9.640265 10.008117 10.380424 10.862436 11.323892 11.739789 **4002.957031 4041.930908** **4075.257568 4107.69043** **4139.866699 4172.935547** **4196.290527** 184.54483 188.39209 194.677429 199.251663 204.097198 205.201584 215.113617 **4187.501953 4230.323242** **4269.935059 4306.941895** **4343.963867 4378.137207** **4411.404297**

11.484387 11.495454 11.49963 11.546198 11.586939 11.643817 11.691459 9.784164 9.780365 9.768024 9.769497 9.719369 9.682802 9.679738 6.433135 6.469696 6.513458 6.536971 6.544885 6.576406 6.606475 10.048022 10.037123 10.119769 10.25032 10.371437 10.478142 10.553159 **9.414257 9.425521**  **9.441182 9.472904**  **9.482746 9.508608**  **9.550199** 13.472017 13.72981 13.983614 14.292755 14.601708 14.94038 15.273585 11.477533 11.681361 11.877972 12.093421 12.248221 12.424169 12.645496 7.546533 7.727202 7.920401 8.091955 8.247778 8.438299 8.630623 11.787057 11.988025 12.305696 12.688621 13.069949 13.444682 13.786523 **11.043605 11.257547**  **11.48053 11.726275**  **11.950032 12.200657**  **12.476268**

5.652726 5.690066 5.748163 5.796637 5.820769 5.862024 5.913411 1.08488 1.086079 1.086361 1.087675 1.089027 1.090796 1.092479 2.74514 2.71533 2.67177 2.651627 2.634313 2.615127 2.601995 6.631057 6.796036 6.989798 7.175515 7.335257 7.521663 7.725212 1.272643 1.297178 1.321021 1.346407 1.372377 1.399618 1.427201 3.220248 3.243105 3.248887 3.282384 3.319726 3.355514 3.399216
1.377733 1.436671 1.441826 1.46057 1.430725 1.465251 1.454368
EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 8Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

1.737078 1.757408 1.774251 1.789055 1.797701 1.80437 1.803162 6.876823 6.945518 7.152602 7.188903 7.194547 7.211467 7.169969

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 9Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032 2033**  **2034**

1696.948486 1707.539307 1717.772949 1723.819336 1728.884766 1735.091431 1746.425537 14.930943 14.988976 15.049183 15.010701 15.062837 15.118737 15.194381 1056.058472 1072.988281 1092.810791 1118.631714 1141.799072 1161.687256 1176.985962 912.366821 912.366821 908.429199 900.553589 893.67926 887.045715 880.714233 2.500833 2.508402 2.517485 2.528384 2.537979 2.544378 2.552568 591.442871 593.940491 598.073364 601.827087 608.283325 619.161133 631.109741 9.248062 9.933258 10.429918 10.927742 11.388846 11.81647 12.249986 **4283.496094 4314.265137**  **4345.08252 4373.298828** **4401.635742 4432.464844** **4465.232422** 27.280607 27.317589 27.309334 27.379536 27.429859 27.480509 27.610132 0.639003 0.639072 0.638934 0.638966 0.639084 0.638669 0.638898 129.58577 128.883072 128.496552 128.386475 128.620178 128.620178 128.620651 4.343434 4.32093 4.320406 4.281896 4.277801 4.137235 4.128694 **161.848816 161.16066**  **160.765228 160.686859**  **160.966919 160.876587**  **160.998367 4445.344727** **4475.425781 4505.847656**  **4533.98584 4562.602539** **4593.341309 4626.230957**  12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 **4432.836914 4462.917969** **4493.339844 4521.478027** **4550.094727 4580.833496** **4613.723145**
20.856031 21.121355 21.399942 21.692463 21.999607 22.322111 22.660736 2.085424 2.085665 2.085992 2.085992 2.085992 2.085992 2.085992 134.495834 140.689407 147.649307 154.873276 162.383896 170.193649 178.312302 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 13.827128 79.00441 80.696289 82.326859 84.077072 85.831985 87.675323 89.577454 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 **254.407364 262.55838**  **271.427765 280.694489**  **290.267151 300.242737**  **310.602112** 209.490128 216.725906 224.579971 232.783249 241.247299 250.054489 259.172363 **44.917225 45.832481**  **46.847794 47.911201**  **49.019863 50.188217**  **51.42976**
1745.085205 1755.978271 1766.482178 1772.891357 1778.314209 1784.894043 1796.696411 17.655371 17.713715 17.774109 17.735659 17.787914 17.843399 17.91927 EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 10Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

1329.388184 1352.494019 1379.386597 1412.819214 1444.192017 1472.317627 1496.168823 912.366821 912.366821 908.429199 900.553589 893.67926 887.045715 880.714233 674.79071 678.957703 684.720642 690.186096 698.393066 710.973633 724.815918 20.46649 20.47406 20.483143 20.494041 20.503635 20.510035 20.518225 **4699.751953 4737.984375** **4777.275391 4814.680176** **4852.869629 4893.583984** **4936.833008 4477.753906** **4508.750488 4540.1875**  **4569.38916 4599.114746** **4631.021484 4665.152832**  **18.85099 16.803518**  **13.715879 13.773485**  **13.585555 12.403186**  **11.274117**
1537.306641 1554.150269 1571.634888 1589.447144 1607.114502 1625.091431 1643.356689 1503.30188 1518.542114 1530.904297 1543.734375 1557.4902341572.1729741587.182617 1169.747681 1164.50293 1160.647705 1156.938354 1152.632446 1148.310547 1145.37439 12.188873 12.665303 13.182973 13.757964 14.332324 14.940421 15.560162 **4222.54541 4249.860352** **4276.370117 4303.87793** **4331.569824 4360.515137** **4391.473633** 221.998047 229.233826 237.087891 245.291168 253.755219 262.562408 271.680298 **4444.543457 4479.094238** **4513.458008 4549.168945** **4585.325195 4623.077637** **4663.153809**

11.741938 11.775142 11.792415 11.835 11.876287 11.915974 11.970158 9.718387 9.750586 9.776165 9.820102 9.864967 9.922685 9.987304 6.64214 6.69106 6.730633 6.778582 6.834031 6.893881 6.970266 10.648506 10.689734 10.756951 10.828091 10.891083 10.981806 11.06431 **9.605593 9.655415**  **9.693605 9.749838**  **9.808076 9.871566**  **9.946239** 15.619926 15.954126 16.272854 16.636768 17.002619 17.371374 17.767262 12.928061 13.211058 13.490546 13.804373 14.123124 14.465512 14.824119 8.835829 9.065709 9.287888 9.52883 9.783902 10.050055 10.345941 14.16537 14.483508 14.843974 15.22133 15.592156 16.009523 16.422716 **12.778015 13.08211**  **13.376618 13.705602**  **14.041677 14.39099**  **14.763166**

5.958313 6.005962 6.034504 6.072109 6.118582 6.187269 6.258242 1.094811 1.096726 1.098778 1.100518 1.10307 1.106245 1.110464 2.603673 2.608689 2.614135 2.629883 2.637409 2.630728 2.628266 7.926155 8.137471 8.327269 8.535722 8.759633 9.01994 9.289085 1.456392 1.485953 1.516251 1.547026 1.579203 1.612708 1.648257 3.463584 3.53451 3.607355 3.696896 3.775831 3.835135 3.901126
1.440166 1.480149 1.500628 1.539477 1.554815 1.547777 1.575204
EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 11Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

1.808443 1.813143 1.822805 1.83275 1.839438 1.845501 1.847865 7.197379 7.230881 7.332098 7.356753 7.360518 7.37725 7.46028

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 12Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**2035 2036**  **2037 2038**  **2039 2040** 

1755.526489 1764.90625 1766.9902341771.686279 1771.942139 1775.888916 15.269176 15.355705 15.440184 15.52246 15.599447 15.68173 1192.739014 1205.184204 1211.041626 1220.320557 1225.93457 1223.677002 874.865112 868.298096 871.718689 876.383057 887.454224 902.864014 2.556907 2.561286 2.564849 2.56747 2.569406 2.57204 644.07959 661.018066 681.154663 700.572266 724.138916 750.244019 12.420008 12.590567 12.777241 12.97079 13.065149 13.166666 **4497.456055 4529.914062** **4561.687988 4600.022461** **4640.703613 4684.094238**  28.254505 28.480173 28.48386 28.384775 28.383598 28.386618 0.641322 0.642186 0.642154 0.642192 0.642156 0.642115 127.185669 126.386894 126.154022 126.153778 125.924622 124.696083 4.144369 4.143351 4.139662 4.25233 4.250722 4.247695 **160.225861 159.652603**  **159.419693 159.433075**  **159.201096 157.972519**  **4657.682129 4689.566895**  **4721.10791 4759.455566** **4799.904785 4842.066895**  12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 12.507924 **4645.174316 4677.059082** **4708.600098 4746.947754** **4787.396973 4829.559082** 
23.016296 23.389631 23.781635 24.193239 24.625423 25.079214 2.085992 2.085992 2.085992 2.085992 2.085992 2.085992 186.958649 194.846039 201.972214 208.438416 214.759598 220.891693 13.827128 13.827128 13.827127 13.827127 13.827127 13.827127 91.555481 93.650543 96.156799 98.720291 101.282112 103.736603 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 4.138528 **321.582092 331.937836**  **341.962311 351.403595**  **360.718781 369.759155**  268.808746 277.857941 286.369415 294.466095 302.327148 309.74762 **52.773338 54.079857**  **55.592915 56.937523**  **58.391666 60.011559** 
1806.797363 1816.776123 1819.255737 1824.264282 1824.95105 1829.354736 17.99649 18.083883 18.168331 18.250645 18.327595 18.409836 EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 13Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

1519.303345 1539.00769 1551.945068 1567.883545 1579.68396 1582.431396 874.865112 868.298096 871.718689 876.383057 887.454224 902.864014 739.779419 758.812012 781.451111 803.544861 829.671753 858.228271 20.522564 20.526943 20.530504 20.533125 20.535063 20.537695 **4979.26416 5021.504883** **5063.070312 5110.859375** **5160.623535 5211.826172**  **4697.947754 4731.13916** **4764.192871 4803.885254** **4845.788574 4889.570801**  **10.062503 11.280499**  **17.320326 18.062122**  **18.069618 18.070129** 
1661.317871 1680.669312 1701.2467041722.188721 1743.861328 1766.623535 1601.863892 1617.54541 1633.0598141648.343506 1662.879883 1677.242798 1141.765869 1138.337646 1137.983276 1139.030273 1141.428223 1144.686646 16.179605 16.795176 17.421303 18.075432 18.758526 19.476158 **4421.126953 4453.347656** **4489.711426 4527.637695** **4566.927734 4608.029297**  281.316681 290.365875 298.87735 306.97403 314.835083 322.255554 **4702.443848 4743.713379** **4788.588867 4834.611816** **4881.762695 4930.284668** 

12.085743 12.227235 12.343243 12.454755 12.592357 12.65804 10.119472 10.270701 10.407647 10.558116 10.739803 10.832127 7.095261 7.255267 7.394081 7.529416 7.673126 7.760399 11.206683 11.377619 11.518293 11.672333 11.859659 11.965886 **10.081303 10.242475**  **10.38156 10.522056**  **10.685328 10.773884**  18.262295 18.809074 19.32892 19.851515 20.425631 20.891396 15.291139 15.799352 16.297871 16.82848 17.420668 17.877827 10.721372 11.160728 11.578772 12.001063 12.446315 12.808111 16.933983 17.502115 18.037088 18.60442 19.237146 19.749035 **15.233464 15.755931**  **16.257019 16.771004**  **17.332304 17.7817** 

6.384639 6.546319 6.683669 6.814193 6.974434 7.054966 1.114153 1.117702 1.121353 1.12684 1.134314 1.140991 2.630568 2.630978 2.629545 2.627036 2.624776 2.624467 9.647579 10.070159 10.466301 10.861077 11.31299 11.643832 1.683554 1.719353 1.755984 1.796059 1.839932 1.883143 3.974948 4.047215 4.117741 4.187207 4.257559 4.331538
1.60196 1.617573 1.637822 1.636548 1.664194 1.663114
EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 14Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

1.854119 1.862344 1.865649 1.866522 1.867453 1.870004 7.550561 7.541974 7.649599 7.660553 7.694115 7.752477

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 15Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**Growth Rate (2011-2040)**

0.20% -1.50% 1.40% 0.50% 2.20% 1.50%
- - **0.70%**

0.20% -4.10% 0.10% -0.20% **0.00% 0.70%**  0.00% **0.70%**
1.70% 0.20% 4.00% 0.90% 3.60% -0.30% **3.40%** 3.90% **1.70%**
0.20% -1.50% EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 16Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule 1.60% 0.50% 1.70% 0.10% **0.80% 0.70%**  **-2.40%**
0.70% 0.80% 0.60% 3.90% **0.70%** 3.60% **0.90%**

0.30% 0.20% 0.40% 0.20% **0.30%** 2.00% 1.90% 2.20% 2.00% **2.00%**

0.70% 0.30% -0.50% 2.50% 2.00% 1.20%
-3.30%
EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 17Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule -0.10% -4.70%

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3947 AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di 18