ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY CONSERVATION

STANDARDS FOR COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EA.1 **INTRODUCTION**

**.......................................................................................................... 1** 

EA.2 **METHODOLOGY**

**......................................................................................................... 1** 

EA.3 **RESULTS**

**....................................................................................................................... 2** 

**REFERENCES**

**............................................................................................................................... 3** 

**EA­i EA­ii** ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY CONSERVATION

STANDARDS FOR COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT

EA.1 INTRODUCTION

**The U.S.**  **Department of**  **Energy (DOE)**  **will conduct**  **an environmental**  **assessment as**  **part**

**of the**  **Notice of**  **Public Rulemaking**  **for commercial**  **refrigeration equipment.**  **DOE will**  **assess**

**the impacts**  **of proposed**  **energy efficiency**  **standards levels**  **on certain**  **environmental indicators** 

**using a**  **variant of**  **the U.S.**  **DOE/Energy Information**  **Administration (EIA)’s**  **National Energy** 

**Modeling System**  **(NEMS). a**  **DOE/EIA uses**  **NEMS to**  **produce the**  **EIA** 2007 Annual Energy

**1** Outlook (AEO2007). **DOE will**  **use a**  **variant known**  **as NEMS­BT**  **to provide**  **key inputs**  **to the** 

**analysis. Results**  **of the**  **environmental analysis**  **are similar**  **to those**  **provided in**  AEO2007

**.**

**DOE intends**  **the environmental**  **assessment to**  **provide emissions**  **results to**  **policymakers**

**and interveners,**  **and to**  **fulfill requirements**  **that the**  **environmental effects**  **of all**  **new Federal**  **rules**

**be properly**  **quantified and**  **considered. The**  **environmental assessment**  **considers two**  **pollutants,**

**sulfur dioxide**  **(SO 2**  **) and**  **nitrogen oxides**  **(NO**

**x ),**  **as well**  **as carbon**  **emissions. The**  **only form**  **of**

**carbon emissions**  **tracked by**  **NEMS­BT is**  **of carbon**  **dioxide (CO**  **2 ),**  **so the**  **carbon discussed**  **in**

**this report**  **is only**  **in the**  **form of**  **CO 2** 

**. For**  **each of**  **the standard**  **levels, DOE**  **will calculate**  **total**

**emissions using**  **NEMS­BT, with**  **external analysis**  **used as**  **needed.**

**DOE will**  **conduct the**  **environmental assessment**  **as a**  **policy deviation**  **from the** 

AEO2007

**, using**  **the same**  **basic set**  **of assumptions.**  **For example,**  **the emissions**  **characteristics**

**of an**  **electricity generating**  **plant will**  **be exactly**  **those used**  **in** AEO2007

**. The**  **NEMS reference** 

**case and**  **alternative growth**  **scenarios are**  **as described**  **in the**  **utility impact**  **analysis (chapter**  **13**

**of the**  **Technical Support**  **Document (TSD)).** 

EA.2 METHODOLOGY

**The NEMS­BT**  **tracks carbon**  **emissions using**  **a detailed**  **carbon module;**  **this approach** 

**provides good**  **results because**  **of its**  **broad coverage**  **of all**  **sectors and**  **inclusion of**  **interactive**

**effects. Past**  **experience with**  **carbon results**  **from NEMS**  **suggests that**  **the NEMS­generated** 

**emissions estimates**  **are somewhat**  **lower than**  **estimates based**  **on simple**  **average factors.**  **One of** 

**the reasons**  **for this**  **divergence is**  **that NEMS**  **tends to**  **predict that**  **conservation displaces** 

**renewable generating**  **capacity in**  **the later**  **years of**  **its forecast.**  **On the**  **whole, NEMS­BT** 

**provides carbon**  **emissions results**  **of reasonable**  **accuracy, at**  **a level**  **consistent with**  **other**

**published Federal**  **results.**

**a For**  **more information**  **on NEMS,**  **please refer**  **to the**  **U.S. Department**  **of Energy,**  **Energy Information** 

**Administration documentation.**  **A useful**  **summary is**  National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000

**, DOE/EIA­0581(2000),**  **March 2000.**  **EIA approves**  **use of**  **the name**  **NEMS to**  **describe only**  **an official**  **version of** 

**the model**  **without any**  **modification to**  **code or**  **data. Because**  **this analysis**  **entails some**  **minor code**  **modifications**

**and the**  **model is**  **run under**  **various policy**  **scenarios that**  **are variations**  **on EIA**  **assumptions, we**  **refer to**  **it as** 

**NEMS­BT (BT**  **is DOE’s**  **Building Technologies**  **Program). NEMS­BT**  **was previously**  **called NEMS­BRS.** 

**EA­1 The**  **NEMS­BT model**  **reports the**  **two airborne**  **pollutant emissions**  **that DOE**  **has reported** 

**in past**  **analyses, SO**  **2 and**  **NO**

**x .**  **The Clean**  **Air Act**  **Amendments of**  **1990 set**  **an SO**  **2 emissions** 

**cap on**  **all power**  **generation. The**  **attainment of**  **this target,**  **however, is**  **flexible among**  **generators**

**through the**  **use of**  **emissions allowances**  **and tradable**  **permits. The**  **NEMS­BT model**  **includes a** 

**module for**  **SO 2**  **allowance trading**  **and delivers**  **a forecast**  **of SO**  **2 allowance**  **prices. Accurate** 

**simulation of**  **SO 2**  **trading tends**  **to imply**  **that physical**  **emissions effects**  **will be**  **zero, as**  **long as** 

**emissions are**  **at the**  **ceiling.**

**However, there**  **may be**  **an SO**  **2 benefit**  **from conservation**  **in the**  **form of**  **a lower** 

**allowance price**  **as a**  **result of**  **additional allowances**  **generated from**  **this rule,**  **and, if**  **it is**  **big**

**enough to**  **be calculable**  **by NEMS­BT,**  **DOE will**  **report this**  **value. The**  **NEMS­BT model**  **also**

**has an**  **algorithm for**  **estimating NO** 

**x emissions**  **from power**  **generation. Two**  **recent regulatory** 

**actions proposed**  **by the**  **Environmental Protection**  **Agency regarding**  **regulations and**  **guidelines**

**for best**  **available retrofit**  **technology determinations**  **and the**  **reduction of**  **interstate transport**  **of**

**fine particulate**  **matter and**  **ozone are**  **tending toward**  **further NO** 

**x reductions**  **and will**  **likely lead** 

**to an**  **eventual emissions**  **cap on**  **nationwide NO** 

**x .**  **(69 FR**  **25184 (May**  **5, 2004)**  **and 69**  **FR 32684** 

**(June 10,**  **2004)) As**  **with SO**  **2 emissions,**  **a cap**  **on NO** 

**x emissions**  **will likely**  **result in**  **no physical** 

**emissions effects**  **from equipment**  **efficiency standards.**  **However, there**  **is an**  **NO**

**x benefit**  **from**

**conservation in**  **the form**  **of a**  **lower allowance**  **price as**  **a result**  **of additional**  **allowances from**  **this**

**rule, and,**  **if it**  **is big**  **enough to**  **be calculable**  **by NEMS­BT,**  **DOE will**  **report this**  **value.**

EA.3 RESULTS

**The results**  **for the**  **environmental analysis**  **are similar**  **to a**  **complete NEMS**  **run, as** 

**published in**  **the** AEO2007

**. These**  **include power**  **sector emissions**  **for SO**  **2 ,**  **NO**

**x ,**  **and carbon,**  **and**

**SO 2**  **prices, in**  **five­year forecasted**  **increments extrapolated**  **to the**  **year 2035.**  **DOE reports**  **the**

**outcome of**  **the analysis**  **for each**  **trial standard**  **level as**  **a deviation**  **from the**  AEO2007 **reference**

**case results.** 

**EA­2 1**  REFERENCES

**EIA (Energy**  **Information Administration).**  **2007.** Annual Energy Outlook 2007. **EIA,**

**Washington, D.C.,**  **DOE/EIA­0554 (2007).** 

**EA­3**