1Total Projected Particulate Emissionsfrom New Fireplaces in the Fifth Yearfrom NSPS Effective DateRevised January 5, 2011Presented for the Hearth, Patio &Barbecue Association Fireplace Caucus2Purpose of the Analysis•Compare estimated particulate emissionsfrom fireplaces 5 years after the effective dateof an NSPS to estimated particulate emissionsfrom fireplaces if an NSPS that includesfireplaces isn’t promulgated.3Information Needed1. Projected number of new housing starts.‐This is the primary multiplier for the overallanalysis.2. Percentage of new houses with fireplacesbroken down by:a. Gas Fireplacesb. Wood‐burning Fireplacesi. Those used for heating.ii. Those used for aesthetic enjoyment.iii. Those not used at all.43. Wood Fireplace Fueling Information:a. Amount of wood used in fireplaces per year:i. In new fireplaces used for heating.ii. In new fireplaces used for aesthetic enjoyment.4. Emission factors for new fireplaces:a. “Baseline” fireplaces – 11.3 g/kgb. NSPS fireplaces (Assumed EPA Phase 2 – 5.1g/kg)5*Average annual housing starts for the period 2011 to 2016 based on the slope of 1995 to 2005 housing starts and an intercept based on2009 housing starts.1236New Single-Family HousingStarts Projection BasisCumulative New WBFP by Use CategoryInstalled from 2011 to 2016HeatingAestheticsNot Used1. ’96-’05 Pre-DownturnTen-Year Average112,135 700,150 378,3602. ’00-’09 Ten-Year Average 101,382 633,011 342,0793. ’95-’05 Slope + ’09Intercept Projected Ave.’11-’1657,167 356,944 192,892Note: WBFP = Wood‐burning fireplaces without fireplace inserts7Fireplace Ownershipin New Construction(% of Single‐Family New Construction Homes,Multiple Ownership Factorof 1.17 Not Considered inChart)Wood‐Burning Fireplace Usagein New Construction(% of Wood‐Burning Fireplaces)8ValueReference*Average Cordwood Use in WBFPw/oI, Heating 0.656 cords/year 117Average Cordwood Use in WBFPw/oI, Aesthetic 0.069 cords/year 117Average Dry Mass of Cordwood 1.23 tons/dry cord 118Emission Factor, Cordwood, Phase II 5.1 g/kg, 5G‐Emission Factor, Cordwood, Baseline 11.3 g/kg, 5G 132Firelog Percentage†25% 110Average Firelog Use 16 firelogs/year 116Average Firelog Weight 4.74 lb/firelog (dry) 116Emission Factor, Wax‐Fiber Firelog(Emission Rate)21.2 g/kg, 5G(15.69 g/h)119*See “References” for full citations.†Fraction of homes that use their fireplace foraesthetics and normally burn firelogs. It isassumed that the overwhelming majority of firelog use is aesthetic.Summary of Wood Burning Fireplace FuelingData and Emission Factors95th– Year Emissions Projections1. By calculation, project the 5th– Yearemissions from baseline and NSPS fireplacesusing the three housing start projections.2. Average the three results to give the finalvalues.10New Single-Family HousingStarts Projection BasisEmissionFactorProjected Tons of ParticlesEmitted in 2016HeatingWoodAestheticsTotalWoodFirelogs*1. ’96-’05 Pre-DownturnTen-Year AveragePhase II538 265164968Baseline1,193 588 1,9452. ’00-’09 Ten-YearAveragePhase II487 240148875Baseline1,078 531 1,7583. ’95-’05 Slope + ’09Intercept Projected Ave.’11-’16Phase II274 13584493Baseline608 300 991AveragePhase II433 213132779Baseline960 4731,565Total Particulate Emissions for New Construction Houses withWood‐Burning Fireplaces without Inserts Emitted in 2016*The wax‐fiber firelog emission factor remainsthe same in both emission factorscenarios.11Sensitivity Analysis – IncreasedPenetration of Gas Fireplaces•Over time, the percentage of gas fireplaceshas been increasing.•Increasing the cost of wood burning fireplaceswith the addition of emission controltechnology is likely continue or accelerate thattrend.•The sensitivity case evaluates the projected5th‐Year emissions if the gas fireplaceproportion of new fireplaces increases by 10percentage points (~65% to ~75%).12Percentage of New Fireplacesthat are Gas-FiredEmissionFactorProjected Tons of ParticlesEmitted in 2016HeatingWoodAestheticsTotal†WoodFirelogs*65.43% Gas FireplacesPhase II433 213132779Baseline960 4731,56575% Gas FireplacesPhase II202 163101466Baseline447 361909Total Particulate Emissions for New Construction Houses withWood‐Burning Fireplaces Emitted in 2016 Using the Averageof the Three Housing Start ProjectionsSensitivity Analysis, Gas‐Fired Fireplace Proportion of New FireplacesIncreased from 65.43% to 75%*The wax‐fiber firelog emission factor remainsthe same in both emission factorscenarios.†Total values based on the average of new single‐family housing starts projections asshown in previous table.13*Average annual housing starts for the period 2011 to 2016 based on the slope of 1995 to 2005 housing starts and an intercept based on2009 housing starts.12314Percentage of New Fireplacesthat are Gas-FiredEmissionFactorProjected Tons of ParticlesEmitted in 2016HeatingWoodAestheticsTotal†WoodFirelogs*65.43% Gas FireplacesPhase II274 13584493Baseline608 30099175% Gas FireplacesPhase II128 10364295Baseline283 229576Total Particulate Emissions for New Construction Houses withWood‐Burning Fireplaces Emitted in 2016 Using Housing StartProjection 3Sensitivity Analysis, Gas‐Fired Fireplace Proportion of New FireplacesIncreased from 65.43% to 75%*The wax‐fiber firelog emission factor remainsthe same in both emission factorscenarios.†Total values based on the third projection of new single‐family housing starts as shownearlier.