Spring 2021 Webinar – Part II 

June 8, 2021
 

 

 

 

WELCOME 

• This session is being recorded 

• Participants are in listen-only mode 

• Questions - after each presentation and at 

session’s end

• Follow up e-mail and participant’s survey
 

 

USDA LMR Boxed Beef 

Reports- How Quality 

Grade Impacts Value 

Chris Sommers 

USDA Agricultural Marketing Service 

Livestock, Poultry and Grain Market News 
 

 

 

 

 

AMS’srole in LMR Beef Sales Reporting

The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) 

• Administers the Livestock Mandatory Reporting (LMR) Act of 1999 and regulations. 

• Publishes 6 daily & 11 weekly beef reports under LMR 

• Audits firms to ensure report accuracy 

• Preserves confidentiality of transactions 
 

 

 

 

Who submits beef sales data to AMS? 

• Federally inspected plants which slaughter at least an average of 

125,000 head per year. 

• LMR covers over 90% of boxed beef volume. 

• First time sales only 

• Distributors, grinders, exporters, etc. who do not slaughter do not submit 

LMR sales data. 
 

 

What beef items are submitted? 

• Primals, subprimals, and cut items 

• Ground Beef 

• Trimmings & boneless processing beef 

• Beef Offal/Variety meat sales are not reported to LMR 
 

 

 

When & How do firms submit sales? 

• Twice per day at 10:00 am CST and 2:00 pm CST Monday 

through Friday 

• Companies electronically submit in a single batch file that is 

encrypted 

• Daily LMR beef reports are normally published one hour after 

packers submit data 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Each submitted beef sale specifies: 

• Destination – domestic, overseas, or • Classification – Prime, Choice, Select, 

NAFTA (USCMA) etc. 

• Sales type – negotiated, formula, or • Unbranded or branded 

forward contract (upper 2/3 Choice, lower 1/3 Choice, Select) 

• Delivery Period – 0-21, 22-60, 60- • Specific item – packer SKU#, or IMPS 90, or 90+ days item 

• Refrigeration – fresh, frozen or aged • Quantity sold – in pounds 

• Class – steer/heifer, cow, bull, dairy bred, • FOB plant price – $ cwt 

etc. 
 

 

 

Daily spot negotiated reports: 

• Boxed Beef Cutout and Boxed Beef Cuts (LM_XB402 

and LM_XB403) 

• Boneless Processing Beef and Beef Trimmings 

(LM_XB400 and LM_XB401) 

• Cutter Cow Cutout and Cow Cuts (LM_XB405) 
 

 

 

Afternoon Boxed 

Beef Cutout and 

Boxed Beef Cuts 

• Choice/Select Spread 

• Change from Prior Day 

• Load Count 

• Individual Primal Values 
 

 

 

What is the “Cutout?”

The boxed beef cutout represents the ESTIMATED GROSS value of a 

beef carcass based on FOB prices paid for individual beef items derived from the carcass. 

• The costs of fabricating carcasses into individual beef items are not deducted 

from the cutout values 

• The fabrication yields used are a simple average provided to USDA by the 

packers covered under LMR 

• 2 day rolling average 
 

 

 

 

What factors affect the Daily and Weekly 

Negotiated Boxed Beef Cutouts? 

(LM_XB402, LM_XB403, LM_XB459) 

• Destination – domestic only 

• Sales type – negotiated only 

• Delivery Period – 0-21days 

• Refrigeration – fresh only 

• Class – native steer/heifer, except for 50% trimmings 

• Classification – Choice and Select 

• No Branded cuts 
 

 

Poll Question: 

Which Primal has the highest 

yield to the carcass, and thus 

most influence on the cutout 

calculation? 
 

 

Answer: The Chuck 

Primal to Carcass Yields 

Rib Chuck Round Loin Brisket Short 

Plate 

Flank 

11.40% 29.62% 22.32% 21.26% 4.95% 7.10% 2.25% 
 

 

 

National Daily 

Boxed Beef Cutout 

and Boxed Beef 

Cuts- Negotiated 

Sales- Afternoon 
 

 

Trend: Shrinking daily spot market volume 

Average load count – daily boxed beef report LM_XB403 

450 

400 

350 

300 

250 

200 

150 

100 
 

 

 

 

Reasons for spot sales decrease: 

Product Variation 

• Packer SKU inventory totals (product code lists) number in the 

thousands 

• Branded programs: There are currently over 100 AMS Certified 

Beef Programs 

Increased Formula Sales 
 

 

Declining Negotiated Sales 

Weekly load comparison of negotiated vs. formula 

600 

800 

1,000 

1,200 

1,400 

1,600 

1,800 

2,000 

400 

LM_XB459 Spot LM_XB454 Formula 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Specific Reports: 

• Spot Mkt Boxed Beef Cutout & Cuts • Spot Mkt Ungraded Boxed Beef (LM_XB462) 

(LM_XB459) 

• Spot Mkt Bnls. Beef & Trimming (LM_XB460) 

• Formula Boxed Beef (LM_XB454) 

• Formula Bnls. Beef & Trimmings (LM_XB450) 

• Forward Sales Boxed Beef (LM_XB455) 

• Spot Mkt Cutter Cow Cutout & Cuts 

• Spot Mkt Branded Boxed Beef (LM_XB461) 

(LM_XB452) 

• Spot Mkt Prime Boxed Beef (LM_XB456) 
 

Weekly 

Comprehensive 

Reports: 

Comprehensive 

Boxed Beef Cutout 

(LM_XB463) 
Weekly 

Comprehensive 

Reports: 

Boxed Beef 

Item Summary 
 

 

Contact Information 

Chris Sommers 

Livestock, Poultry & Grain Market News 

Email: Chris.Sommers@usda.gov 

Phone : 515-284-4460 

Livestock, Poultry & Grain Market News homepage: 

https://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/ls-home 
 

 

USDA Livestock Mandatory 

Reporting (LMR) Boxed Beef 

Price Reports/ 

Data/Information 

Stephen Koontz 

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics Colorado 

State University 

Stephen.Koontz@colostate.edu 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Information is Important 

For the individual – market price information is important for making good 

business decisions. 

For the overall marketplace – for free-market economies to work well then 

market participants need to be well-informed. 

What are the prices? What is the market potential? 

Again, there are a breadth of data users and providers of information. 

Substantially used by downstream purveyors. 

And, I would argue, it is informative to upstream sellers as well. 
Let’s go to the USDA AMS 

Market News Website 

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news 
 

 

 

What did the pandemic reveal? 

Choice 189A Loin, tendrloin, trmd, heavy FOB Plant 2021 2020 5 Yr Avg 

1400 

600 

700 

800 

900 

1000 

1100 

1200 

1300 

dollars per cwt. 

500 J F M A M J J A S O N D 

Daily average negotiated Choice 189A Loin, tendrloin, trmd, heavy in dollars per cwt. comparing2021 to 2020 and to the 5-year a verage. Source: USDA AgriculturalMarketing Service 
 

 

 

What did the pandemic reveal? 

Choice 109E Rib, ribeye, lip-on, bn-in - National - FOB Plant 2021 2020 5 Yr Avg 

550 

600 

650 

700 

750 

800 

850 

900 

950 

1000 

1050 

1100 

1150 

dollars per cwt. 

500 J F M A M J J A S O N D 

Daily average negotiated Choice Rib, ribeye, lip-on, bn-in value dollars per cwt. comparing 2021 to 2020 and to the 5-year average. Source: USDA AgriculturalMarketing Service 
 

 

 

 

What did the pandemic reveal? 

Choice Rib Primal Daily- FOB Plant 

2021 2020 5 Yr Avg 

290 

310 

330 

350 

370 

390 

410 

430 

450 

470 

490 

510 

530 

550 

dollars per cwt. 

270 J F M A M J J A S O N D 

Daily Choice Rib Primal in dollars per cwt. comparing 2021 to 2020 and to the 5-year average. Source: USDA AgriculturalMarketing Service 
 

 

 

What did the pandemic reveal? 

Choice Chuck Primal Daily - FOB Plant 2021 2020 5 Yr Avg 

180 

210 

240 

270 

300 

330 

360 

390 

420 

450 

480 

dollars per cwt. 

150 J F M A M J J A S O N D 

Daily Choice Chuck Primal value dollars per cwt. comparing2021 to 2020 and to the 5-year average. Source: USDA AgriculturalMarketing Service 
 

 

 

What did the pandemic reveal? 

Choice Round Primal Daily - FOB Plant 2021 2020 5 Yr Avg 

J F M A M J J A S O N D 

Daily Choice Round Primal in dollars per cwt. comparing2021 to 2020 and to the 5-year average. Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service 

160 

195 

dollars per cwt. 

230 

265 

300 

335 

370 

405 

440 

475 

510 
 

 

 

 

STEER SLAUGHTER 

Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 

175 

200 

225 

250 

275 

300 

325 

350 

375 

400 

JAN APR JUL OCT 

Avg. 2015-19 2020 2021 

C-S-17

05/21/21

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS 

Livestock Marketing Information Center 
 

 

 

 

0 

20 

40 

60 

80 

100 

120 

SATURDAY CATTLE SLAUGHTER 

Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 

JAN APR JUL OCT 

Avg. 2015-19 2020 2021 

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS 

Livestock Marketing Information Center 

C-S-03

05/21/21
But it’s not just... Also, 2019 had optimism...

BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE 

Choice 600-900 Lbs., Carcass, Negotiated, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 

245 

240 

235 

230 

225 

220 

215 

210 

205 

200 

JAN APR JUL OCT 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019 

CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES 

Carcass Cutout Value 600-900 Lbs., Negotiated, $ Per Cwt. Weekly 

30 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

JAN APR JUL OCT 

Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019 
But it’s not just... But 2018 was flat...

BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE 

Choice 600-900 Lbs., Carcass, Negotiated, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 

260 

250 

240 

230 

220 

210 

200 

190 

180 

JAN APR JUL OCT 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg. 2012-16 2017 2018 

CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES 

Carcass Cutout Value 600-900 Lbs., Negotiated, $ Per Cwt. Weekly 

35 

30 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

JAN APR JUL OCT 

Avg. 2012-16 2017 2018 
But it’s not just... And in 2016 it was not good...

BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES 

Choice 600-900 Lbs., Carcass, Weekly 18-33 Pounds, Weekly $ Per Cwt. Cents Per 

Pound 280 325 

300 260 

275 

240 

250 

220 

225 

200 

200 

180 175 

160 150 

JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT 

Avg. 2010-14 2015 2016 Avg. 2010-14 2015 2016 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

• There are strong and different 

seasonal patterns in product prices. 

• Premiums and discounts across 

Quality Grade and Yield Grade that 

are not constant. 

• Choice-Select spread communicates 

information on demand. 

• Differences in end-meats, middlemeats, and ground product. • Similar issues to fed cattle prices in 

terms of formulas and forward 

contracting. 

• Clear benchmarks! USDA AMS and 

NASS establish the Gold-Standard. 

Some things 

that are seen 

in the LMR 

data 
 

 

 

 

Some conclusions? And what’s next?

• Beef markets are varied and complicated. 

• Different supply chains, demands, and opportunities. 

• Market potential, market potential, market potential...

• Leading indicators? Lagging problems? 

• Upstream providers will understand downstream markets. 

• New opportunities? 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Website Script 

Main MN page. 

“Livestock, meats, poultry, eggs, grain & hay”

“Meat” – first 2 and the next 3 are pork and Other. 

Daily Beef Reports – lsddcbs.pdf – links take you to the data 

• nw_ls410.txt 

• AM & PM 

• Lsdcbbs.pdf 

Weekly/Monthly beef reports 

• Comprehensive TXT 

• Negotiated, forward, formula. 

• Branded, prime, ungraded. 

• Grassfed 
National Daily and National Weekly Cattle and Beef 

Summary Reports 
 

 

 

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