# USGS Climate Change

- Related Work on the U.S. / Mexico Border

Diana Papoulias USGS, Columbia Environmental Research Center

# BORDERLANDS Setting the Scene

– Southwest is expected to get hotter and experience more intense precipitation events with increased variability.

# Challenge Areas

• Water Quality and Availability

• Natural Hazards

• Ecological Resources



## • Energy and Mineral Resources

• Human Health

• Human Impacts

• Environmental Security, Border Management, and Protection

# Highlights

– The US

- Mexico Border GIS (BEHI)



# – DOI Southwest Climate Science Center

– Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model

– Contaminants in the Santa Cruz River



# – Modeling Flooding at Ambos Nogales

– Flood Warning and Modeling in Nogales Sonora

– TAAP

– Mesilla Basin Studies

– American Drylands

– modeling dust events

# BEHI

- PROVIDING THE TRANSBORDER

FRAMEWORK

• Borderlands Environmental Health Initiative

# BEHI Partners

• Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI)

• Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT)

• Instituto de Salud Publica (INSP)

• DOI US

- Mexico Border Field Coordinating Committee (FCC)

• Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy (SCERP)

• Comisión Nacional de Agua (CONAGUA)

• Comisión Internacional de Limites y Aguas (CILA)

• International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC)

• UT Center for Research in Water Resources (CRWR) Rio Grande

• Environmental Protection Agency Border 2012

BEHI HOMEPAGE http:// borderhealth.cr.usgs.gov/projectindex.html

# DOI CLIMATE SCIENCE CENTERS

# DOI LCCs

LCC Homepage: www.fws.fov/science/shc/lcc.html

# The River Runs North
Except When It Runs South 

# SANTA CRUZ WATERSHED MODELING

# 2010

Economic // Market Land Price Social // Human Well

- Being Biophysical // Ecological Value 

### Describing the binational watershed, in terms of Ecosystem 

### Services provided to humans, based on Sustainability ’s 3

- legged stool approach, in an online decision support tool.

Ecosystem services are “The benefits and goods that people receive from the environment.”

-- Millennium Ecosystem Assessment , 2005 

# Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio



# Model (SCWEPM)0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Prescription hormones

PAH Biogenic hormone Pesticides Nonionic detergent metabolites

Disinfectants Wastewater compounds Non-prescription drugs Fire retardants Prescription drugs Fragrances Plasticizers Sterols Maximum Concentration for the Group 

# Contaminants in the Santa Cruz River

Link to climate change research: climate change can worsen contamination problems by decreasing the amount of water in rivers and aquifers. This study provides baseline information and continued monitoring of the effluent dominated Santa Cruz River and groundwater at Tumacacori National Historical Park. Climate change will affect concentration, degradation, and movement of emerging contaminants which have the capacity to kill plants and animals, impair riparian ecosystem function and affect humans with well water that is derived from infiltrated river water.

micrograms per liter (ppb)

# Groundwater and contaminant transport

modeling
Link to climate change: when 

## coupled with downscaled

climate

- and watershed models, these can be used to predict changes in water 

## availability and movement of contaminants between groundwater and surface water in response to 

## different climate scenarios.

# Modeling alternative scenarios

Flooding at Ambos Nogales

# Modeling floods in Ambos Nogales

Multiple partnerships

# Rain Gages

Precip On Milimeters

(mm) Inches

(in.) 7/31/2010 1.524 0.06 7/30/2010 52.07 2.05 7/29/2010 17.78 0.7 7/28/2010 7.62 0.3 7/27/2010 13.208 0.52 7/22/2010 7.112 0.28 7/20/2010 1.27 0.05 7/19/2010 24.384 0.96 

### • No Radar available (Nogales in shadow for NWS)

• One Rain precipitation gages now being installed

• All data is available in real

- time in maps on

- line!Satellite Data Collection System Data Receiving Station 

# More to come...

# TAAP

– TRANSBOUNDARY AQUIFER ASSESSMENT PROJECT

17 

### • Mesilla Basin has interconnected streamflow (the Rio Grande) and 

### groundwater (the Mesilla Basin,
or acuifero Conejos

- Medanos in Mexico ).

• Major water use: agriculture in New 

### Mexico, and across border in Mexico.

• Important municipal uses: new wellfields for El Paso and Ciudad Juarez

.



### • Cross

- boundary river flow governed by interstate and international treaties. CABALLO DAM

AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION

AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION

## Model Development: USGS MODFLOW

- 2005 Code “ Farm Process”

REGIONAL MODEL AREA

– LOWER RIO GRANDE EXAMPLE SUB
- MODEL

– “RINCON” AGRICULTURAL SERVICE AREA • Upgraded model accounts for and integrates: surface diversions, return flow, crop type, & supplemental well pumpage

• Can be tied to “real
- time” water supply conditions and to remote sensing crop data for rapid changes or updates

• Allows for supply and demand analysis, pumping predictions, effects of administrative rules for droughts or water rights

## Model Development: Expanding Model Domain into Mexico

• Contract executed with CONAGUA & SGM (Mexican Geological Service) for a basic geohydrologic data study in Conejos

- Medanos

• New Mexico WRRI has updated the geologic framework with cross

- sections and structure maps of aquifer units, and a binational database has been created

• USGS is making hydraulic parameter estimates from textural analysis of well log data

• USGS has sampled select wells in Mesilla Bolson for hydrochemical analysis including age dating.

• Results will be integrated into FARM PROCESS model and enhance management of this critical resource under changing conditions WELLS IN MODEL DOMAIN

NEW WELLFIELD AND PIPELINE UPDATED GEOLOGIC FRAMEWORK

# SALTON SEA ECOSYSTEM

Salton Sea

Pacific Ocean

Gulf of California Arizona California

Colorado

River

Yuma Los Angeles

San Diego

Tijuana USA

Mexico La Quinta

# Pending water transfers to urban southern California will shrink the size of the lake and accelerate the



# salinity increase

With no action:
By 2018

- elev to

- 235

- salinity to 60,000 mg/l By 2078:

- elev to

- 260 ft;

- salinity to 300,000 mg/l

# Salton Sea Area Wind Vectors

- 2002

15 MPH is critical threshold for dust generation. These regularly occur over the most vulnerable sites

# American Drylands

• Borderlands central area is the source of dust 

# that is frequently transported during high wind events.

Modis image of a dust storm on April 29, 2010

# High

- resolution climate modeling for dust

events