Spring 2021 Webinar Series – Part III

June 10, 2021

Good evening everyone and thank you for joining tonight. We 

will start promptly at the top of the hour (7pm EST/ 6pm CST). 

Please review the information below:

• This session will be recorded and will be available on the 

Cattle and Carcass Training Center website for future 

reference. A link will be provided at the end of our session 

today.

• Participants will be in listen-only mode this evening. 

• Participants may ask questions through the Q&A feature. 

Simply click the Q&A icon located at the bottom of your 

screen to submit your question.

• At the completion of today’s session, our speakers will 

address as many questions as time allows. If your question 

does not get addressed, you are invited to reach out to each 

speaker directly. Their email addresses will be provided.

• Today’s session will last approximately 1.5 hours, depending 

on the number of questions received.

• You will receive a follow-up email and participant survey 

after the Webinar. Your feedback will help us build future 

CCTC events and activities that benefit the US beef industry. 

Your responses are appreciated.
Spring 2021 Webinar – Part I

II

June 10, 2021
WELCOME

• This session is being recorded

• Participants are in listen-only mode

• Questions - after each presentation and at 

session’s end

• Follow up e-mail and participant’s survey
Using Livestock 

Mandatory 

Reports in the 

Real World

David Trowbridge, Manager

Gregory Feedlots, Inc. -Tabor, Iowa

USDA 

Grader 

Evaluation
Breakeven Projection
Cattle on Feed 

Inventory, 

Placements, 

Marketings, & 

Other 

Disppearance
Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group
National Daily Boxed Beef Cutout and Boxed Beef 

Cuts Data
5 Area Daily 

Weighted 

Average Direct 

Slaughter 

Cattle
5 Area Daily 

Weighted 

Average Direct 

Slaughter 

Cattle (cont.)
USDA National Daily Cattle & Beef Summary
USDA National Daily 

Cattle & Beef Summary 

Graphs
USDA National 

Weekly Fed 

Cattle 

Comprehensive 

Weighted 

Average Prices
Feed Outlook May 2021
USDA Beef 

Carcass Price 

Equivalent 

Index Value
Using LMR in the 

Real World

Jordan Levi

Arcadia Asset Management
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Disclaimer

This Document is intended only for the person to whom it has been 

delivered. This Document is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the 

purchase of any security. Any investment decision in connection with Arcadia 

Asset Management, LLC. (“Arcadia” or the “Program”) should be based on 

the information contained in its Confidential Private Placement 

Memorandum (the “Memorandum”). Information contained herein is not 

intended to be complete or final and is qualified in its entirety by its 

Memorandum and governing documents. This Document is strictly 

confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part 

nor may its contents be disclosed to any other person under any 

circumstances. This Document is not intended to constitute legal, tax, or 

accounting advice or investment recommendations.

These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Outline

•Introduction

•How we use LMR (and other Government) 

data

•Organization of data

•Developing a macro thesis

• Fine tuning with monthly data

•Getting granular with weekly and daily 

data

• Conclusion

•Questions

These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

How we use 

Livestock Mandatory 

Reports (LMR) and 

other Government Data
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Organization of Data-

“The Research 

Production Schedule”

These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Data in Excel- Tabular 

Format

• Weekly Grading Data

• Organization is Key!

• Use colors to identify 

formulas vs. hard code
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Data in PowerBi Format

• Weekly Cattle 

Slaughter

• Embrace new 

technologies:

• PowerBi makes 

your data look 

better and is more 

stable than Excel 

when linking 

multiple data sets.
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Now What?

• Now that we have decided what 

data to keep and how to 

communicate that data, what do 

we do with it?

• We develop a macro thesis, modify 

with monthly data, and tweak with 

the granular weekly/daily data.

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (May 2021). USDA, Economic Research Service
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Developing a Macro Thesis- Where to Start

• Start with the big 

picture

• Yearly data is easy to 

find and analyze. It 

only comes out 1-2 

times a year.

• What does the 

macro supply 

outlook look like? Cattle (January 2021) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Feeder Cattle Outside of Feedyards as of 

January 1

Cattle (January 2021) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Fine Tuning Using 

Monthly Data- Dive 

Deeper

• Once you get a good feel for 

the overall trends, start 

looking at monthly numbers

• Look for analog years

Cattle on Feed (May 2021) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Total Placements

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (May 2021) USDA, Economic Research Service
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Get Granular with Weekly and Daily DataLooking at Seasonal Patterns

• Looking at data on 

a weekly or daily 

basis lets the 

seasonal trends 

stand out

• May indicate 

shorter term 

market changes

Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection, USDA
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Have Some Fun with Coding

• Here is the 

same fed cattle 

slaughter data 

in a time 

decomposition 

model.

Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection USDA
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Seasonal Steer Dressed Weight

Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection USDA
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Seasonal Comprehensive Boxed Beef Value

National Comprehensive Boxed Beef Cutout – All Fed Steer/Heifer Sales USDA
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Conclusion
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Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Start with One Major Piece

• Second largest 

Cattle on Feed for 

May 1

• The supply of 

cattle is extremely 

high for this time 

of year

• Will there be 

demand for them?

Cattle on Feed (May 2021) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Look into the Implications 

• On May 1, there were 11,725,000 cattle on feed (COF) in the 

U.S.

• Placed Against May there were approximately 2,047,000 

head

• Based on previous COF numbers, there were about 171,200 

cattle ready for slaughter in April but were held into May

• Total of 2,280,300 head needing slaughtered in May

• April Federally Inspected Fed Slaughter was 2,199,800 head; 

the 3-month average is 2,146,100
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Is it possible to “meat” supply?

Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection USDA Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection USDA

*The dashed line depicts 525,000 head, the estimated weekly number needed to slaughter full May supply.
These materials are confidential, should be used for informational purposes only and are not for distribution. 

Past performance of Arcadia Asset Management, LLC is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Decision - Conclusion

• Cash prices will have a difficult time increasing in May 

(all else equal).

• Basic supply and demand says if there is more supply than 

demand, price tend to decline.

• There is a lot more impacting price, but it is a starting place 

to derive at a risk management or trading decision.
Using LMR Reports 

in the Real World

Spencer Prosser

MP Agrilytics (MPA)
Why is Livestock Mandatory Reporting 

(LMR) and other USDA data important?

One of the basic conditions of a competitive market is complete & equal 

information. 

Data Provides Transparency and Validation to affirm/direct:

•Market Intelligence: Short-term and Long-term market information

•What are bid-ask spreads on tri-tips if no one has published information? 

•Are we liquidating cows? What is slaughter capacity?

•Market Research: Helps provide forward looking information (expectations) to 

market participants

•What is the fed cattle supply for the next 6 months? 

•What are the long-term supply implications from liquidating cows? 

•What are longer-term price expectations for beef from growth in trade with China?

•Industry: Investment (equity), Financing (capital), & Policy

•Data helps provide transparency to investors and financers. 

•We can have intelligent discussions with data around industry issues today. These 

industry discussions would likely become rhetoric without data.
Beef & Cattle Market Data 

Globally

• United States

• Daily or Weekly: Cash/Formula, Cutout, Cuts, Slaughter, Weights, Grading, Trade Data

• Monthly: COF, Cold Storage, Trade

• Annual: Inventory

• Globally

• Canada would be the next closest (~85% of what US has)

• Monthly Trade Data and Prices Provided for most countries (or we 

can back into from other country’s export/imports)

• AUS, NZ, JPY, SK provide “some” data

• Killer Cows are about the only thing you can find consistently for 

live animals globally

There is no comparison to U.S. data and transparency. 
What is MP Agrilytics’ Role and How do we use the Data? 

4 Services MP Agrilytics Provides

1. Data: We identify, collect, and store public (USDA, etc.) as well as private 

data. We chart and table all the data we can possibly find globally as it 

relates to cattle and beef. We distribute this data to clients. 

2. Objective Market Analysis: We are paid to dig through 10,000 charts, 

data, and research, using our real-world experience to summarize what 

sticks out in the market and industry without a directional market bias. 

This can be a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd party, depending upon the needs of the client.

3. Market Opinions: How we “think” the market will react based on the 

knowns from the data.

4. We Don’t Confuse #2 with #3: 

Who Uses MPA or Similar Services?

1. Physical Industry Participants: Cow-Calf, Stocker, Feeder, Packer, 

Further Processor, Retailer, and brokers providing risk management 

services. 

2. Speculators: Individuals, funds, CTA’s, etc., who provide market liquidity 

to take on risk in the market. This can be in physical (beef or cattle), 

futures, or swaps. 

3. Industry Providers: Veterinary, nutrition, animal feed providers, etc.

4. Financing/Investment: Investors or financers in any of the above.

Today, 907.9

y = 7625.3x2 - 10669x + 3682

R2 = 0.6846

-$150

-$50

$50

$150

$250

$350

$450

$550

$650

$750

$850

$950

$1,050

64% 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100%102%

Packer Margins

Capacity Utilization (Slaughter as % of Capacity)

Fed Cattle Capacity Utilization VS Packer Margins, 4Wk Avg

2009-Covid

Today

2001-2008

Covid-Present
Practically, We Try to Monitor The Industry

1. Big Picture Data and Trends 

to Provide a Long-Term 

Outlook

2. Shorter-Term Outlook 

(Monthly vs Annual)

3. Monitor Expectations with 

Daily or Weekly Data with a 

consistent data set of key 

variables

4. Watch the other 10K charts 

to find if there is anything that 

will change assumptions. Ex. 

China starts buying beef.

5. Change Shorter-Term or 

Long-Term Expectations due to 

Monitoring of key variables or 

new information.
We Build Lots of Balance Sheets

US, Net Beef Supply

+ Fed Beef Production

Steer Slaughter/Weights Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 

Regional Data

Heifer Slaughter/Weights

+ Non Fed Beef Production

Beef Cow 

Slaughter/Weights Monthly, Weekly, Daily Data

Dairy Cow Slaughter/ 

Weights

- Beef Exports

Our Exports Weekly/Monthly Data

Other countries production, 

other countries exports 

(supply)

Monthly Data

Total imports by destination 

(demand)

Price Relationships (ours 

and other countries)

+ Beef Imports

Our Imports Weekly/Monthly Data

Circle back to beef export 

information

+ Fed Cattle Imports
How Do We Specifically Use LMR Data?

• Just through the LMR system, we pull

• Daily - About 600 pieces of information 

• Weekly- About 3000 pieces of information

• What do we get from LMR?

• Short answer is – a lot, probably over 1000 charts.

• Practically

• Cattle – Negotiated Prices, weights, volumes, yields, to a lesser extent 

grading, regional information, forward contract information, formula 

information, etc.

• Beef- Negotiated Prices/volumes, formula prices/volumes, forward 

prices/volumes, Export Prices/volumes.
How to use the Data as Cow-Calf Operator

• Fed Cattle Valuation (All LMR)

• Prices

• Premium & Discount Report

• Choice/Select Spread, Prime Spread

• Feeder/Cow Valuation 

• National/Regional Summaries: Plenty of state level summaries by USDA 

and national reports for Feeders and Cows. 

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain#Cattle

• OKC: The best start for cow/calf values. Easy to scan weekly summary 

for both Cows and Calves. Easy to identify flat prices by various weights 

as well as price slides/differences between weight classes.
How to use the Data as 

Cow-Calf Operator (cont)

Industry Trends

• Tracking Input Costs: Hay and virtually every other ingredient is tracked 

somewhere within AMS. https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news

• Liquidation or expansion (aka the Cattle Cycle): Simply knowing if we are 

liquidating or expanding the national herd is one of the most profitable answer for a 

cow-calf producer. This is of course, if feed resources allow the producer to 

participate. This is a slow process, so it is not hard to find. Many extension services, 

brokers, industry publications will hit on this multiple times per year. 

One-Off Opportunities/Issues:

• Regional imbalances: As example today, it is dry in the West and wet in the Central 

Plains. To find prices of feeders or cows at discounted values is not extraordinarily 

hard. The occasional drought monitor or precipitation map from NOAA goes a long 

way as well. Plenty of good bred cows traded for less than $1000 in the West last 

fall. Open cows were, in some instances, less than $500 for a few weeks. 

• Value of Grass/Gain: If corn is high (or feedstuffs in general), grass is simply worth 

more. This, along with regional imbalance information, can provide opportunities 

not normally used in the average Cow-Calf operation. 

• Slaughter Issues from COVID: Not too hard to watch daily/weekly slaughter levels 

to see when things start to improve.
Contact Information

Spencer Prosser 

928-856-0186

Spencer@MPAgrilytics.com
Thank you for Participating

For more information on this webinar series and the 

USDA Cattle and Carcass Training Centers, visit: 

www.ams.usda.gov/grades-standards/beef/cattle-carcass-training- centers

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