Welcome

Angie Snyder

Office of the Deputy Administrator, LPS Progra
Lives

Agricu

Sherry Wise, Ph.D.

(Sherry.Wise@ams.usda.gov) 

Senior Economist

Agricultural Analytics Division

Agricultural Marketing Service

U.S. Department of Agriculture

AMS Annual Industry Conference 

Egg, Fish, Poultry, and Red Meat Breakout Sessions

Doubletree Hotel by Hilton – Crystal City

Arlington, Virginia

October 26, 2016

Livestock and Poultry 

Economic Outlook
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Agricu

 Supply

• Production increasing in 2017 – up 2%• Live weights appear to have plateaued 

 Demand

• 2016 per capita disappearance 90.3 lbs, up 2• 2017 per capita disappearance 91.8 lbs, up 2• Exports up in 2017 by 5%

 Price Trends

• 2017 wholesale whole bird—$0.84/lb, down • Retail composite—$1.95/lb, up 3%

Broiler Industry
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 Supply

• Industry has recovered from HPAI• Production up in 2017 by 1.2%• Live weights continue to increase

 Demand

• 2016 per capita disappearance 17.0 lbs, up 6• 2017 per capita disappearance remains at 17• 2017 turkey exports up 12%

 Price Trends

• 2017 wholesale whole hen $1.16/lb, down 3• Retail whole bird $1.52/lb, up 1%

Turkey Industry
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 Supply

• Industry beginning to transition to cage-fre• Table egg production up 2% in 2017• Eggs broken up 3% in 2016

 Demand

• Per capita disappearance 266 eggs in 2016, • Per capita disappearance unchanged in 201• Exports up 14% in 2017

 Price Trends

• 2017 wholesale Grade A large $0.99/doz, u• Retail Grade A large $1.78/doz, up <1%

Egg Industry
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 Supply—Record high production

• Production increase 5% in 2016 to 25 billio• Production increase 4% in 2017 to 26 billio• Imports down 9 and 11%

 Demand

• Per capita disappearance 2016 55.4 lbs, up • Per capita disappearance 2017 55.6 lbs, up • Exports up 7 and 9%

 Price Trends

• Current Retail Choice beef $5.72/lb, Whole

$2.74/lb

• Prices down 5% in 2016, up 2-3% in 2017

Cattle/Beef Industry
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 Supply—Record High Production

• Production increase 2% in 2016 to 25 billion • Production increase 4% in 2017 to 26 billion • Imports up 2%, 

 Demand

• Per capita disappearance 2016 49.9 lbs, up s• Per capita disappearance 2017 51.4 lbs, up 3• Exports up 4%, both years

 Price Trends

• Current Retail price $3.79 per lb., wholesale 

$1.55 lb.

• Down 2-4% in 2016, Up 0-1% in 2017

Swine/Pork Industry
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 Supply

• Production increase 1% in 2016 to 152 mill• Production flat in 2017 • Imports up 2% in 2016, down 14% in 2017

 Demand

• Per capita disappearance 2016 1.0 lbs.• Per capita disappearance 2017 0.9 lbs.

 Price Trends

• Up 2-3% in both 2016 and 2017

Sheep/Lamb Industry
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Fish

 Catfish (Top 3 states)

• Surface acres down 4% in 2016 from prior year• Broodfish numbers down 3%, Foodsize fish dow

Stockers up 13%

 Salmon

• Harvest data not yet available• Sockeye harvest up, pink very low
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Fish, cont’d.

 Pollock

• BSAI Catch up 30,000 MT from 2015’s 1,310,00• GOA Catch ongoing but up

 Fish/seafood prices up slightly in 2016, 1-2% 
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 Feed situation

• Corn—Prices down 46 cents per bu. t

per bu.

• Soybean meal—Prices up $8 per sho

$338

 Trade

• Continued strength in U.S. dollar in 2

but forecast for imports down, export

Note: All forecasts assume no new HPAI ou

General Outlook
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Questions?

Don’t forget to check out our monthly publicat

“The Economic Landscape” available at

www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/AMSAgriculturalA
QUALITY ASSESSMENT 

DIVISION

Annual Industry Meeting 

October 26, 2016
Auditing & Processing Updates 

 Oversights

Grading AuditingTechnical
Auditing & Processing Updates (con

Further Processing Certification ProCheckloading Freezing Time and Temperature 

Requirement 
FOOD SAFETY AND COMMODI

SPECIFICATIONS DIVISION

Annual Industry Meeting 

October 26, 2016
Dr. Chandramohan Chawan

1944 - 2016 
Food Safety and Commodity 

Specification Division
Key Issues

 Performance-based Specifications Process Control Analysis Raised without Antibiotics Salmonella Dublin Case Count vs. Pounds
FOOD SAFETY AND COMMODI

SPECIFICATIONS DIVISION

Product Development

Annual Industry Meeting 

October 26, 2016
Agenda

 Poultry & Egg Products Beef & Pork Products Aquatic Products
Poultry and Egg Products

 New Product Development

 Whole Muscle Chicken Fillet/Chicken Patty Chicken Drumstick Turkey Crumble Egg Patty
Poultry and Egg Products (cont’d)

 Specification Review

 Turkey Deli, Sliced

 Packaging and sodium reduction

 Turkey Taco

 Flavor profile

 Turkey Roast

 Sodium reduction

 Frozen Whole Egg

 Extension of time to pasteurization  Addition of 2lb. carton
Poultry and Egg Products (cont’d) 

 Future Objectives

 Increased industry involvement/interaction Update specification format
Beef & Pork Products - New

 Beef Strips

 Lightly Seasoned

 Canned Chili w/ Beans



≤ 300 mg Sodium /100g



≤ 8 g Fat /100 g
Beef & Pork Products - Revisions

 Beef Stew



≤ 325 mg Sodium /100 g

 Beef Crumbles



≤ 300 mg Sodium /100 g

 Beef Patties



≤ 300 mg Sodium /100 g

 Pulled Pork



≤ 385 mg Sodium /100 g
Pollock Blocks

 Federal Purchase Program Specification 

for Once-Frozen Alaska Pollock Blocks 

 Section 511 – QUALITY ASSURANCE

Revise language to clarify inspection and grading requirements.
Tuna

 Updated Federal Purchase 

Program Specification (FPPS) for Canned/Pouch Tuna published in September 2016

 Added requirement - All tuna products 

shall be certified Kosher and include the registered Kashrut certification symbol of the certification agent.
Thank you....

Questions & Discussion
FOOD SAFETY AND COMMODI

SPECIFICATIONS DIVISION

ADL Update & Data Review

Annual Industry Meeting 

October 26, 2016
Agenda

 ADL Meeting Summary FY2016 Microbiological 

Review

 Supplement 211 & 212 Vendor 

Performance Handouts

 Animal Handling & Welfare 

Review