## CLOTHES WASHER

.

## CARD -16

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## Price of Clothes Washer $450 Energy and Water Savings $10 Wash Capacity Standard Top or Front Load Top Wash/Rinse Temperature Cold, Warm Load Size Non-Adjustable

J-67

## J.14 INSTRUCTIONS

J.14.1 Clothes Washers Assume that you are purchasing a new clothes washer. You have in front of you a series of cards that contain different combinations of clothes washer prices, expected annual energy and water savings, and different washer features such as capacity, wash and rinse water temperatures, and load size adjustments. We're going to ask you to sort these cards according to your preference for the features described on each. These features are defined below and are also shown in the laminated exhibits you have in front of you. Please read these instructions and look at the exhibits carefully to make sure you understand the definitions before you begin sorting through the cards. Price. The price refers to the cost of a new clothes washer. Top or Front Load. Top or front load refers to the placement of the door on the machine. "Top" means the door is on the top of the machine and "Front" means the door is on the front side. Please refer to Figure 1 to see different examples of top loading and front loading clothes washers. Energy and Water Savings. The savings shown on the card reflects an average expected bill savings (both water and energy) for an entire year using the clothes washer. Wash/Rinse Temperature. This feature refers to the water temperature options available on the machine for the wash and rinse cycles. The two categories are "Cold, Warm, Hot" and "Cold, Warm". Wash Capacity. Wash capacity refers to the amount of clothes that can be washed in one wash load. The categories are "Standard" and "Extra Large". The "Extra Large" capacity is 20 percent larger than the standard tub. Load Size. Load size refers to a feature that allows you to adjust the amount water during the wash cycle to match a small, medium, or large wash load. "Adjustable" means that the water level can be adjusted to match the load size, while "Non-adjustable" indicates a washer that uses the same amount of water regardless of the size of the load. Once you've looked through the cards, sort them into three piles in the rough order of your preference for them. To help you, we have provided marker cards labeled: J-68

### Product/Service Product/Service I would be Product/Service I would be I would be NEITHER MORE nor LESS LIKELY I MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY to choose to choose to choose After you have sorted the cards into three piles, pick up the cards in your "More Likely" pile. Sort them according to your preference for them so that the one you most prefer is on the top and the one you least prefer is on the bottom. Repeat this sorting procedure for the cards in your "Neither More Nor Less Likely" pile. Then, sort the cards in your "Less Likely" pile. If you feel inclined to move a card to a different stack during the sorting procedure, please feel free to do so. Please review your three piles to ensure that the cards are sorted from most preferred to least preferred. We would now like you to record the clothes washer you prefer most, second most, and so on down to the clothes washer you prefer least. Note that there is a number located on the upper right hand corner of each card. On your response sheet, write down the number of the cards under the column labeled "Card Number" beginning with the top card on your "More Likely" pile. When you reach the bottom of the first pile, proceed to the "Neither More Nor Less Likely" pile and then to the "Less Likely" pile. When you are done, the number of your least preferred card should be written on the last line of the "Card Number" column and every line should have only one card number entered.
97 

## Card Number 97 99 

## 98

J-69

## J.15 CONJOINT ANALYSIS COEFFICIENT ESTIMATES

Coefficient Estimates All Respondents Equipment Choice Model Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0036 0.000 1% 26% Savings 0.010 0.001 1% 14% Capacity 0.248 0.024 1% 7% Door Placement 0.383 0.024 1% 11% Water Temp. 0.614 0.024 1% 18% Load Size 0.852 0.024 1% 25%

_____________ 100% Coefficient Standard Significance Relative Error Level Importance Intercept -0.949 0.224 1% 0% Price -0.0066 0.000 1% 22% Savings 0.029 0.002 1% 19% Capacity 0.452 0.072 1% 6% Door Placement 0.698 0.075 1% 9% Water Temp. 1.438 0.071 1% 19% Load Size 1.809 0.071 1% 24%

______________ 100% Low Income. Less than $25k

_________________________ ________ Fri,iinmn* (hn Mnrll Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0040 0.000 1% 30% Savings 0.010 0.001 1% 16% Capacity 0.255 0.049 1% 8% Door Placement 0.330 0.049 1% 10% Water Temp. 0.518 0.049 1% 16% Load Size 0.648 0.049 1% 20% 100% roefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance ntercept -0.230 0.387 55% 0% Price -0.0066 0.001 1% 24% Savings 0.025 0.003 1% 19% Capacity 0.369 0.132 1% 5% Door Placement 0.624 0.134 1% 9% WaterTemp. 1.262 0.130 1% 19% Load Size 1.600 0.129 1% 24%

______________ 100% Elderly, 65 and older = ___________ _________________________________ - Fn.iinmnt rhnir MnrleI Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0025 0.000 1% 22% Savings 0.006 0.001 1% 11% Capacity 0.124 0.061 4% 5% Door Placement 0.352 0.061 1% 13% Water Temp. 0.524 0.062 1% 19% Load Size 0.817 0.063 1% 30% 100% Coefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Intercept -1.963 0.542 1% 0% Price -0.0044 0.001 1% 16% Savings 0.022 0.004 1% 17% Capacity 0.447 0.177 1% 7% Door Placement 0.794 0.183 1% 12% WaterTemp. 1.392 0.176 1% 21% Load Size 1.873 0.179 1% 28%

______________ 100% Young, 18-24 ________________________________ Fntiinmpnt (hnue Model Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0052 0.000 1% 31% Savings 0.016 0.002 1% 19% Capacity 0.375 0.069 1% 9% Door Placement 0.460 0.070 1% 11% Water Temp. 0.547 0.071 1% 13% Load Size 0.657 0.069 1% 16% 100% Coefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Intercept 0.628 0.537 24% 0% Price -0.0081 0.001 1% 28% Savings 0.027 0.004 1% 19% Capacity 0.634 0.186 1% 9% DoorPlacement 0.818 0.188 1% 11% WaterTemp. 0.867 0.181 1% 12% Load Size 1.508 0.180 1% 21%

_____________ 100% 

### J_70Recent Purchasers

Fi,uioment Choice Model Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0024 0.000 1% 22% Savings 0.005 0.001 1% 9% Capacity 0.173 0059 1% 6% Door Placement 0.300 0.059 1% 11% Water Temp. 0.520 0.059 1% 19% Load Size 0.861 0.060 1% 32%

_____________ 100% Coefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Intercept -1.596 0.573 1% 0% Price -0.0056 0.001 1% 20% Savings 0.022 0.004 1% 16% Capacity 0.562 0.180 1% 8% Door Placement 0.605 0.187 1% 8% WaterTemp. 1.468 0.176 1% 21% Load Size 1.976 0.183 1% 28%

_______________ 100% Have Tried Horizontal Axis

___________ __________________________________ n.iinmnt (Thniie Mridel Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0035 0.000 1% 26% Savings 0.009 0.001 1% 13% Capacity 0.260 0.032 1% 8% Door Placement 0.303 0.033 1% 9% Water Temp. 0.624 0.033 1% 19% Load Size 0867 0.033 1% 26% 100% Coefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Intercept -0.766 0.309 1% 0% Price -0.0069 0.001 1% 23% Savings 0.030 0.002 1% 20% Capacity 0.455 0.099 1% 6% Door Placement 0.484 0.102 1% 6% Waterlemp. 1.483 0.095 1% 20% Load Size 1.841 0.097 1% 25%

______________ 100% Would Consfr1er Purchasing H-Axis Machine _________________________________ - Eciuinment Choice Model Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0037 0.000 1% 26% Savings 0011 0.001 1% 15% Capacity 0.266 0.028 1% 8% Door Placement 0.264 0.028 1% 8% Water Temp. 0.653 0.029 1% 19% Load Size 0.834 0.029 1% 24%

_____________ 100% Coefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Intercept -0.953 0.252 1% 0% Price -0.0063 0.001 1% 22% Savings 0.031 0.002 1% 21% Capacity 0.482 0.083 1% 7% Door Placement 0.499 0.085 1% 7% WaterTemp. 1.520 0.082 1% 21% Load Size 1.671 0.081 1% 23%

______________ 100% Would Not Consider Purchasing H-Axis Machine = ___________ __________________________________ EciuiDment Choice Model Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance

______________ Price -00035 0.000 1% 25% Savings 0.006 0.001 1% 9% Capacity 0.194 0.046 1% 5% Door Placement 0.709 0.047 1% 20% Water Temp. 0.533 0.046 1% 15% Load Size 0.927 0.047 1% 26%

_____________ 100% 'oefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance ntercept -1.296 0.513 1% 0% Price -0.0072 0.001 1% 22% Savings 0.022 0.004 1% 14% Capacity 0.392 0.149 1% 5% Door Placement 1.347 0.163 1% 16% WaterTemp. 1.245 0.144 1% 15% Load Size 2.273 0.156 1% 28%

______________ 100%



### J-7 1Madison, WI

Eauioment Choice Model Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0048 0.000 1% 25% Savings 0.0157 0.001 1% 16% Capacity 0.4834 0.052 1% 10% Door Placement 0.5579 0.052 1% 12% Water Temp. 0.7683 0.052 1% 16% Load Size 1.0077 0.052 1% 21% 100% Coefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Intercept 0.358 0.49 46% 0% Price -0.0098 0.00 1% 27% Savings 0.036 0.00 1% 20% Capacity 0.662 0.15 1% 7% Door Placement 0.747 0.16 1% 8% WaterTemp. 1.427 0.15 1% 16% Load Size 1.934 0.15 1% 21%

______________ 100% Washington DC

___________ _________________________________ EauiDment CI'oice Model Likelihood of Purchase

Coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0032 0.000 1% 26% Savings 0.0099 0.001 1% 16% Capacity 0.1912 0.052 1% 6% Door Placement 0.1779 0.052 1% 6% Water Temp. 0.6164 0.052 1% 20% Load Size 0.7559 0.052 1% 25% 100% Coefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Intercept -1.359 0.408 1% 0% Price -0.0045 0.001 1% 18% Savings 0.024 0.003 1% 19% Capacity 0.521 0.140 1% 8% DoorPlacement 0.394 0.141 1% 6% WaterTemp. 1.284 0.137 1% 20% Load Size 1.767 0.138 1% 28%

______________ 100% Dallas, TX Eauioment C'I'oice Model Likelihood of Purchase

'oefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Price -0.0034 0.000 1% 27% Savings 0.005 0.001 1% 8% Capacity 0.156 0.048 1% 5% Door Placement 0.523 0.048 1% 17% WaterTemp. 0.523 0.048 1% 17% Load Size 0.836 0.049 1% 27% 100% Coefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Intercept -2.039 0.510 1% 0% Price -0.0054 0.001 1% 19% Savings 0.022 0.004 1% 15% Capacity 0.325 0.151 3% 4% Door Placement 1.105 0.164 1% 15% Water Temp. 1.472 0.152 1% 20% Load Size 1.977 0.158 1% 27%

_____________ 100% San Francisco Bay Area = ___________ _________________________________ Eauioment C'I'oice Model Likelihood of Purchase

coefficient Standard

Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance

_____________ Price -0.0036 0.000 1% 25% Savings 0.011 0.001 1% 15% Capacity 0.235 0.046 1% 7% Door Placement 0.339 0.047 1% 10% Water Temp. 0.638 0.047 1% 18% Load Size 0.916 0.048 1% 26% 100% Coefficient Standard Error Significance

Level Relative

Importance Intercept -0.985 0.45 3% 0% Price -0.0070 0.00 1% 22% Savings 0.034 0.00 1% 21% Capacity 0.312 0.15 3% 4% Door Placement 0.684 0.15 1% 9% Water Temp. 1.747 0.15 1% 22% Load Size 1.749 0.14 1% 22%

______________ 100%



### J-72

### J.16 ELASTICITY CALCULATIONS

J-73Low Income Households Variable D eseription Price Dollar value of retail price of machine Savings Dollar value of annual water and energy bill navings Capacity Binary variable: zero for standard capacity machine, ove for extra large capacity. Door Placement Binary variable: zero for front loader, one for top loader Water Temp Binary variable: zero for cold/warm, one for cold/warm/hot washing temperature options Load Sze Binary variable: zero it there isno load ze adjustment option, one if there is Directions To calculate a price elasticity use the 'Likelihood of Purchase Model" to the left. Fill in the Initial Price and probability, and new price and probability cells in the "Price Elasticity of Demand" table to generate results for the spscific price change Smilarly, when calculating Savings elasticity, be sure the initial and new market conditions differ only in their navings estimates. Low Income Households Note: Includesthose in namplewith household annual incomes of $25,000 Upper Bound = 0.93 Lower Bound= 0.54 or lena, Ukelihood of Purchase Model Pl'oduct of Coefficient and Current Market Current Market Variable Coefficient Conditions Value Intercept -0.230267252 3 -0.690801756 Pl'ice -0.006588926 400 -2.6355704 Savings 0.025374155 50 1.268707725 Capacity 0.368678285 0 0 Door Placement 0623771343 1 0.623771343 WaterTernp 1.262196472 1 1.262196472 Load Sze 1.599534028 1 1.599534028 Sam 1.427837412 Likelihood of Purchase suarce: &irvey 019, 7 percent at low incomes reondentscIaim that would go to laaodromat rather than repair or parchana new machine at $400. This assumes that rewondents that chose to repair at $150 would choow to parchase a new machine if repairing were not an option

Price Badicity of Demand

Initial Price 400 Initial Probability 0.93 New Price 650 New Probability 0.72 Pricefiaef

icily

_______ Savings 6aicity of Demand

Initial Savings 0 Initial Probability I

## I 0.931 New Savings 

## II 501 New Probability 0.98 .SavingsBasticity

# ir /warce: survey 019, proportion of people low income respondentsthat would do Iaandry elsewhere or shop for a anad machine rather than repair at $150 or purchase anew machine at $650. This aenmesthat all those that choose to repair would start going to the Iaandromat if repairing were nolan option.

Price Baeficity of Demand

Initial Price Initial Probability 0.54 New Price 650 New Probability Price Baef icily Savings Basticity of Demand

Initial Savings Initial Probability New Savings 

## [II° New Probability 0.81 Savingsaeficify
. 

### J-74Low Income Households Variable 0escription Rice Dollar value of retail price of machine Savings Dollar value of annual water and energy bill mivings Capacity Binary variable: zero for eandard capacity machine, one for eutra large capacity. Door Ptacement Binary variable: zero fur front loader, one tor top loader. Water Temp Binary variable: zero for cold/warm', one for 'cold/warm/hot' wabling temperature Options Load Bze Binary variable: zero if there is no load rize sdju6ment option, one if there is Directions To calculate a price elasticity use the "Likelihood of Purchaue Modef' to the left. Fill in the Initial Price and probability, and new price and probability cells in the "Price Elasticity of Demand" table to generate results for the specific price change i$milarly, when calculating Savings elaaticity, be mire the initial and new market conditions differ only in their mivings ed/mates. Low Income Households Note: lncludesthoue in mimplewith household annual incomes of $25,000 Upper Bound = 0.93 Lower Bound= 0.54 Likelihood of Purchase Model Product of Coefficient and Current Market Current Market Variable Coefficient Conditions Value Intercept -0.230267252 3 -0.680801756 Pl'ice -0.006588929 400 -2.6355704 Savings 0.025374155 50 1.268707725 Capacity 0.3686 78255 0 0 Door Placement 0.623771343 1 0.623771343 WaterTemp 1.262186472 1 1.262186472 Load Sze 1.589534028 1 1.599534028 Sam 1.427837412 likelihood of Purchase Ssurce: Sirvey Cia, 7 percent of low iscnmes respondestsclaim that wnuld guts laundromat rather than repair or purchase nem machine at $400. This aemmes that respondents that chose to repair at $150 would choose to purchase a new machine if repairing were notes option

Price Baaticity of Demand

Initial FI'ice 400 Initial Probability New Rice 0.93

650 New Probability 0.72 Price Bad/unity Savings Dad/icity of Demand

Initial Savings

# [ 0 Initial Probability I 0.931 New Savings I 501 New Probability 0.98 Savings Basticity &airce: Survey ale, proportion ot people low income respondents that wosld do laundry elsewhere or shop for a used machine rather than repair at $150 or purchase a sew machine at $650. This aseimes that all those that choose to repair would eart going to the laundromat if repairing were not an option.

Price Dad/icity of Demand

Initial Price 400 Initial Probability 0.54 New Price 650 New Probability 

### Ii8 PriceBad/icity -y Savings Bad/icityof Demand

Initial Savings Initial Probability New Savings 50 New Probability 0.81 Savings Bad/icity T: J-75

## REFERENCES

1. Currim, I. S., Using SegmentationApproachesforBetterPrediction and Understanding

from Consumer Mode Choice Models. Journal of MarketingResearch, 1981. l8:p. 301- 309 2. Green, P. E. andA. M Krieger, Segmenting Markets with ConjointAnalysis. Journal of

Marketing, 1991. 55: p. 20-303. Green, P. E. and K. Helsen, Cross- Validation Assessment ofAlternatives to IndividualLevel Conjoint Analysis: A Case Study. Journal of Marketing Research, 1989. 24: p. 346-3 50 4. Allison, P. D. and N. A. Christakis, Logit Models for Sets ofRanked Items. Sociological

Methology, 1994. 24: p. 199-228 5. Louviere, J. J. and D. A. Hensher, Using Discrete Choice Models with Experimental

Design Data to Forecast Consumer Demand for a Unique Cultural Event. Journal of Consumer Research, 1983. 10. p. 348-361 6. Babbie, E., The Practice of Social Research. Fifth ed. 1989, Wadsworth Publishing

Company: Belmont, CA.

J-76

## APPENDIX K. LIFE-CYCLE-COST RESULTS FOR CONSUMER SUBGROUPS

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## TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES Figure K. 1 MEF of 0.860(5%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-2 Figure K.2 MEF of 0.860(5%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-2 Figure K.3 MEF of 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-3 Figure K.4 MEF of 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-3 FigureK.5 MEF of 0.961 (15%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-4 Figure K.6 MEF of 0.961 (15%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-4 Figure K.7 MEF of 1.021(20% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-5 Figure K.8 MEF of 1.02 1 (20% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-S Figure K.9 MEF = 

## 1.04 in 2004, Low Income K-6 Figure K.10 MEF = 

## 1.04 in 2004, Low Income K-6 Figure K. 11 MEF of 1.089 (25%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-7 Figure K. 12 MEF of 1.089(25%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-7 Figure K. 13 MEF of 1.257 (35%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-8 Figure K.14 MEF of 1.257 (35%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-8 Figure K.15 MEF = 

## 1.26 in 2007, Low Income K-9 Figure K.16 MEF of 1.26 in 2007, Low Income K-9 Figure K.17 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-b Figure K. 18 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-b Figure K.19 MEF of 1.485(45%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-li Figure K.20 MEF of 1.485 (45%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-li Figure K.21 MEF of 1.634(50%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-12 Figure K.22 MEF of 1.634(50%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income K-12 Figure K.23 MEF of 0.860(5%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-13 Figure K.24 MEF of 0.860(5%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-13 Figure K.25 MEF of 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-14 Figure K.26 MEF of 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-i4 Figure K.27 MEF of 0.961 (15%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-iS Figure K.28 MEF of 0.961 (15%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-iS Figure K.29 MEF of 1.021(20% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K- 16 Figure K.30 MEF of 1.021 (20% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-16 Figure K.3i MEF = 

## 1.04 in 2004, Senior K-i7 Figure K.32 MEF = 

## 1.04 in 2004, Senior K-17 Figure K.33 MEF of 1.089 (25%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-18 Figure K.34 MEF of 1.089(25%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-18 Figure K.35 MEF of 1.257(35% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-19 Figure K.36 MEF of1.257(35%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior K-i9 Figure K.37 MEF = 

## 1.26 in 2007, Senior K-20 K-i

## Figure K.38 MEF = 

## 1.26 in 2007, Senior K-20

Figure K.39 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior ................ 

## K-2 1 Figure K.40 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior ................ 

## K-21 Figure K.41 MEF of1.485 (45%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior ................ 

## K-22 Figure K.42 MEF of1.485 (45%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior ................ 

## K-22 Figure K.43 MEF of 1.634(50%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior ................ 

## K-23 Figure K.44 MEF of 1.634(50%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior ................ 

## K-23

K-u

## APPENDIX K. LIFE-CYCLE-COST RESULTS FOR CONSUMER SUBGROUPS

This appendix contains the complete set of life-cycle-cost (LCC) results for the low income and senior subgroups. For details on the methodology used to calculate the LCC and payback period refer to Chapter 8. For each efficiency level, frequency and cumulative charts are provided showing the distribution of expected LCC differences from the baseline design.

K-i

## 10,000 Trials .024 018 .012- I- 

### .000 Ii

($55) 

## Forecast: LCC Difference

Frequency Chart 194 Outliers

- - 

### 239

- 

### 179.2 -'1

-I

-. 

### 119.5 

## =

-. 

### 59.75 0 

### Figure K.1 MEF of 0.860 (5% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income 

## 10,000 Trials 1.000 .750 .500 

### 250

- 

### . 

# -r ($55) 

## Forecast: LCC Difference

Cumulative Chart

0 -'1 -I 

## = = Figure K.2 MEF of 0.860 (5% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income 

## 194 Outliers

- 

### 10000

K-2 

### ($41) ($28) ($14) $0

$

($41) ($28) ($14) $0

$10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 93 Outliers 

### .033 025

_________ _________________________ i1

# JIllilil_________

_____ - 332 

### 249
IIl 

### .017

______________ ____________ _____________________________________ _______ 

### 166

. 11 

# FJH

# [I

. 

# I I L I- iiII 

### =

_ 

### .008

_______

________________

_____________ ______ _____________________________ 1i ____ 

### 83

= 

### ($46j.. IIIIIIIIIIIIIIRhIIU . l lf 

# O 000 .'.....,.I. '

.I IIl 

# I 0
________________ _______________________________________ ___ _________ 

### ($150) ($106) ($63) ($19) $25

Certainty is 99.06% from -Infinity to $0$

- Figure

## K.3 MEF of

## 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy

## Use), Low Income Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 93 Outliers 

# 1.0001

_________________________________ _________ 

### .750 -'1 -I 

### .500

__________________________ ______ 

### 10000

.o 

# & .250 Mean f$46 

## 11111 .0001 0 ($150) ($106) ($63) ($19) $25



### Certainty is 99.06% from -Infinity to $0 $ Figure

## K.4 MEF of

## 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy

## Use), Low Income

K-3

## 10,000 Trials .033 .025 .017 

## Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart

000 

## 231 Outliers

- - 

### 330

($225) ($150) ($75) $0 $75

Certainty is 95.74% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 247.5 1 rD 

### 165 •

## = 82.5 0 

### Figure K.5 MEF of 0.961 (15% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income 

## Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 231 Outliers 1.000

- 

### 10000
.750 _________________________________________________________________________________ _________________ 1 I I H

.. 

# .soo 411Li riIriJit 

# 2 

# IIIlIIiIlI I 

# E 250

_______________________ 

# .,lI

# I i1Ill 0_ .000 t.IIIIIfltIIIIIItIIIIIuhltIIIlII _____________________ 0 I ($225) ($150) ($75) $0 $75

Certainty is 95.74% from -Infinity to $0 $ Figure K.6 MEF of 0.961 (15% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income
K-4

### 10,000 Trials .036- 

## .027
.018 .= C I- 

### .000 ($300) 

### I ($188) ($75) $38 $150 Certainty is 84.90% from -Infinity to $0 $ 267 11 -' -178 •

### rD = 89 0 

## Figure K.7 MEF of 1.02 1 (20% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 121 Outliers 1.000 I 1,111,,. .750

______________________________________________________ 

### .lI 

## 1il!L 

# L 10000

-I 

# .5001 = = C 

## .250- Mean $69) 

# .000 .....111.....11UffllflItfflIOIIHIIIDfiI

_____ -



# i'M •tuHI.fl!I1III - 0 ($300) ($188) ($75) $38 $150



### Certainty is 84.90% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

## Figure K.8 MEF of 1.021 (20% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart

__________________________________________________

# ..1diiiii

_________________________________ 

## 'LI 

# uILtItslulIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIItlIII111 II 

# 'Il 1i H ______________________________



### Mean ($69) - -. 

# $ff:'

________

# ________ 121 Outliers

- 

### 356

K-5

### 10,000 Trials .028 .021 .014

.I

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart

.000 = 

### ($11 

### 141 Outliers

- 

### 282

($450) ($300) ($150) $0 $150

Certainty is 89.48% from-Infinity to $0 $ 

### 211.5 -I, -' 

### 141 

### = 70.5 n 

### Figure K.9 MEF = 1.04 in 2004, Low Income Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 141 Outliers 10000 

# 1.0001

_______________________ II

- 

### .750 -I 

# .= .500 = rD = .250 Mean ($118 .000 

# ......i....,iiiIIllllIIIIIIIIlIIIIIIIIItwiuinnuwii 0 

## I

-- 

### ($450) ($300) ($150) $0 $150

Certainty is 89.48% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.10 MEF = 1.04 in 2004, Low Income

K-6

## 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 189 Outliers .024 8 244 183 '1

-' .012 

### 122
-

### = 

## rD IllIllil I i 

## = .006

_______________ l

__________________ k

______________ ______________ 

### 61 

# l IIII IIlIIIIIIIIIIIIII M = 

### ($243) 

# II i 

### 000 

# inii.i

_______________ _________________

# I

__________________________ _______________________________ UHiiriiiriuir.uiu 

### 0 

## I ___________________ ($900) ($625) ($350) ($75) $200

Certainty is 87.83% from -Infinity to $0 $ Figure

### K.11 MEF of

### 1.089 (25% 

### Reduction in Energy

### Use), Low Income 

## Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 189 Outliers 1 .0001 

# llHllHHHtj 1 0000 .750

- -I 

### .500 

# .ilII .=

. ____________________________________________

# iiilii1ft = .250

__________________________________________________________ 

# V V Iii iv .ari 

### ($243) .000 

# ........1•IIIInhiilll!IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _____________________________________



# ImI

_______________ 

# _______________ 0 ($900) ($625) ($350) ($75) $200

Certainty is 87.83% from -Infinity to $0 $ Figure

### K.12 MEF of

### 1.089 (25% Reduction in Energy

### Use), Low Income

K-710,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 87 Outliers .034 .026 ______________

_______________________________

# i.II.IIIIIIIIL

_________________ I- 

### 343

___________ 

### 257.2 -' 

### .017 - - 

### 171.5 = 

### .009 85.75 

# ii thIIIItIIIIIIIII = 

# iit ,ii .000 

# t

____ I,mutt,Iut...- ..______ - I 

# 4 I ______ - 

### 0 ($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750

Certainty is 80.70% from -Infinity to $0 $

....... 

## Figure K.13 MEF of 1.257 (35% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income
Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 87 Outliers 1.000 

### .750 _________________________________________________________ 

# iilflHllO 10000 

## .5001 . - = = .250 _____________________________ . 

# _________ I( ...!JUUULLL]LLI1TT1I1I1II1I!.fl 

### 0 .000 

# suw"uL1IdIIIIiI 4, ($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750

Certainty is 80.70% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

## Figure K.14 MEF of 1.257 (35% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income

K-8Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 105 Outliers 

### .032

- 

### 321 .024 _____________

________________________________ 

### II.I

# III lIb

_______________ ____________ 240.7

= 

### JJ It

. 

### _______ .016

_________ _______

____________ _______________ I

_________ 

### _______ ________ 

### 160.5

.=

. I I - 

### .008 

# ...r!.dIII. L I.......

. 

### 80.25 000 1•.ui1ilhIIIttIdII1IIIIIIII

______________ • ______ ,. ____________ 

### ($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750

Certainty is 81.45% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.15 MEF = 1.26 in 2007, Low Income

Figure K.16 MEF of 1.26 in 2007, Low Income

K-9

# 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 74 Outliers .032 

### .024

# _________________ _________ 

# ________________________________________ [IllIllIllIld __________________________________

_____________________ '

# - - 323 

### 242.2

_________ ______________ I ______

___________ 

# 1

___________________ 

# ____ ____________ 8:7: 000 -

# ..I,..HIbIIIlklIIIIIIhIIIII. '1 i. 

## Mean=($flJMhith, 0 • I I ($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750 Certainty is 79.89% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.17 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income •Forecast: LCC Difference 

## 10,000 Trials Cumulative 

# Chart 74 Outliers 1.000 

# - 10000

I ______________________________________________________________ F ___________ 

# HUhIIIHilH

____________________________ 

# :: ($1,500) ($938) 

### ($375) $188 $750 Certainty is

### 79.89% from -Infinity to

### $0

# $ Figure K.18 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income

K- 10

## 10,000 Trials .030 .022 .015I

### i:i_ .007 

## Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart

000- 

## 152 Outliers

- 

### 295

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 $750

Certainty is 70.63% from -Infinity to $0 $ 221.2 1 -I 147.5 .= 

## = = 73.75 (1 

## Figure K.19 MEF of 1.485 (45% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income 

## 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 152 Outliers 1.000 .750 _________________

_____________________________________ 

## __________

# diJIflIII1ilflililBI - 

### 10000



# IIi.L. 

# 1 I4jfflfflI .500 

# L4

. 

# J1 0 

## ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 $750

Certainty is 70.63% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

## Figure K.20 MEF of 1.485 (45% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income

K-il

### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 168 Outliers .027 020

___________ I•i ,. 

### - 272

_________ 204 

## dJ 

# 2

. 

### .

. 

### .014 : .:)

### ..

## .:



# [ 136

. 

## I . 

## Ii ii III 11111 II 

### IIIlJIIIII .007 

# 'j
. . 68 

# iIllflhIIIIIIIII 1IJllllIll .000 

# ihut . -. 0 

### ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 $750

Certainty is 70.63% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.21 MEF of 1.634 (50% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 168 Outliers 1.000 10000 .750

# ______________________________________________________ ___________ .500 

### 0 .250 omwni Mean = 

### .000 

# ..w..u,,piiIlfllIllIfflhII1III!I nr.1..ii.i Jill, 

### 0 ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 $750



# _________ iij



# __________ ___________________ Certainty is 70.63% from -Infinity to $0

## $ Figure K.22 MEF of 1.634 (50% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income

K-i 2

## 10,000 Trials .031 .023 .015 - I- 

### .008

# L. .000 ($40) 

## Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 156 Outliers

- 

### 305

- 

### 228.7 1

- 

### -152.5
.


### Figure K.23 MEF of 0.860 (5% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior 

## 10,000 Trials 1.000 .750

- 

### .500 - I- 

### .000 

# -r

($40) 

## Forecast: LCC Difference

Cumulative Chart

0 11 -'


## = Figure K.24 MEF of 0.860 (5% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior 

## 156 Outliers

- 

### 10000

K- 13 

## ($30) ($20) ($10) $0

$

($30) ($20) ($10) $0

$10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 243 Outliers .033

___________________________________________________ III

# I I 

# - 330 

# :::

' 'j

__________ .. __________

____________________•.. ________ C 

### .008 11111



# '!j II 

### 82.5 =



# . .h1l1IIIlIIIlIIlIIIIIIIIIIIIIII[i[ Lj J 

# ... .000 . 0 ($90) ($63) ($35) ($8) $20 Certainty is 

### 98.57% from 

### -Infinity to

### $0 $ 

## Figure K.25 MEF of 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 243 Outliers 1.000 10000



## ____________________________________________________ 

# iiiiiøIIII

# 10111111 1 P .750

____________________________________________________________________________________ 

# .1111111 f11l11 .500- I

# - C = 

### .250 = 

### 000 

## •

# .....LttflhIuUIflhItLLLIgphIIIIJIIIIOI11111I1JIMedn- $32) 

### 0 ($90) ($63) ($35) ($8) $20 Certainty is

### 98.57% from

### -Infinity to

### $0

## $ Figure K.26 MEF of 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior

K- 14

### Forecast: LCC Difference

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 162 Outliers

- 

### 432 032 324

- 

### 022 216

-rD C



### _____________________ 

# III 108 = 000 

# .III.IL.IIIIItl1uIIIIIIIIIIIllhIIII

- 

### ($175) ($113) ($50) $13 $75

Certainty is 94.45% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.27 MEF of 0.961 (15% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 162 Outliers 1 .000

- 

### 10000 .750 

# L[ -I 

### •500 .= 

### = rD C

________ .250
___________________



# I11l = 

# itiiLIillhIIIIIIIIIIIH1 1$49



# L .000 

# tti ir 0 

### ($175) ($113) ($50) $13 $75

Certainty is 94.45% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.28 MEF of 0.96 1 (15% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior

K- 15

## Forecast: LCC Difference

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 73 Outliers .046-f

- 

### 456 

# 034 ii1ij 342 

# . ..

11111111 ' 

## = 

# ii' 

# 1 •iuuiiiiiii :

. 

### .023 

## AIIUIIIIIIII

-

### 228

.

## =



# 1 

# llIH1i .011 

# . ..-_____________ _____ 

### 114 

# IItIItIIIIIIIIII1l L 

# 7i 000 •" 

# is.tI.ittUIII 0 

# 4 ($250) ($150) ($50) $50 $150

Certainty is 78.84% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.29 MEF of 1.021 (20% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior 

## Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 73 Outliers 1.000 

# iouUlilhhIIIIIIIIilRHil 10000 

### .750
-'

. 

### .500 _____________________________

# IIIIIIIJIIJIIOft
= 250 

# _______ = .000 $41 iIIIu..iiii liii, 0 

### ($250) ($150) ($50) $50 $150

Certainty is 78.84% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.30 MEF of 1.021 (20% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior

K- 16

## 10,000 Trials .032-r .024 .016I

## Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart

.000 

## 164 Outliers

- - 

### 322

($300) ($188) ($75) $38 $150

Certainty is 83.69% from -Infinity to $0 $ 241.5 11 -' 

### 161

-

## = rD 80.5 

### Figure K.31 MEF = 1.04 in 2004, Senior 

## Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 164 Outliers 1.000 

# I H HHH 10000 .750-

-

- .500 .= 

## =

. - 

## = .250 

# ffløI

.i..uiuiIIiilll

# IIllhIIIIIIIIIIIII HIUUUULU.III!IE 

### 0 .000 - ($300) ($188) ($75) $38 $150

Certainty is 83.69% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.32 MEF = 1.04 in 2004, Senior

K-i 7

### Forecast: LCC Difference

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 184 Outliers 

### .026 

# - 255

__________________________________________________________ 

# i

# iiII iIiiIIIii.i

___________________________ .% 

# jIIlII III I 

# 1111111111

_______________________ . 

### .013 

# 1111111111 127.5

. 

## iii = 

# ::: IlhIIIIILIIIIhIIfIllIllhIflhIfHllhllh jJj137_^J 

# ! ($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200

Certainty is 80.40% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.33 MEF of 1.089 (25% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 184 Outliers 1.000 

# - 10000 .750

___________________

# ____4W*

# :WWU

[[

_________________________________________________________________________________ 

# IIl" flhttIIIUh1I1IHIIIII I 

### I 

# -

- 

# ILtIIIIIIIItttLt

- 

### 0 

# I ($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200

Certainty is 80.40% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.34 MEF of 1.089 (25% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior

K- 18

### Forecast: LCC Difference

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 69 Outliers .039 J I - 

### 392 029 I IIIIl IID 

### 294

____________________________ . 1 -I

. 

### .020 

## iF1I1ft 196

. .= IIIII 

## = 010

_________________



### ___________ [

______________ l



### ________ __________________ - ' _____________ 

## 98 

# i L 

# lIIIIhIIIIIII Mean=($32)]

- 

### 000 ''•

# II.I!lIlI .Dll

### .. 0 . - ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750

Certainty is 70.64% from -Infinity to $0 $

......... ................................ 

## Figure K.35 MEF of 1.257 (35% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 69 Outliers 1 .000 

## I IIHIIII - 10000 .750 _________________

______________________________________________ .,. 

# i1 :' . 

## II II 

# 1111 .

# 'U

.. 

# _______________ .500 

## L



# ________________________________ 1

# •

______________________________ 250 

## 1Ii!

________________________________________________ 

# r Lftfl[ L1.I 

# 1 L 'Earl 

### -1(Il.J. I , ' ' 

# h 000 

# 1 ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750

Certainty is 70.64% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

## Figure K.36 MEF of 1.257 (35% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior

K-i 9

## Forecast: LCC Difference

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart .038 .028 .019 C 

## 0 .000 

## 90 Outliers

1 

# ...tui,lIbdIIIIIII

# I H _ii: 375 281.2 1

-I 

### 187.5 

## = 93.75 0 ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750

Certainty is 71.74% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure K.37 MEF = 1.26 in 2007, Senior 

## 10,000 Trials 1.000 .750 .500 .C C 

### .000($1,000) 

## Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 90 Outliers 10000

Liii 

## ].o $750 -'1 -' 

## = = Figure K.38 MEF = 1.26 in 2007, Senior

K-20 ($563) ($125) $313 Certainty is 71.74% from -Infinity to $0 $

## 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 76 Outliers 037

____ .028__

___________ ________ 371 __ 278.2 t1 -I 

## rD .019 185.5

. 

### .009 

### = 92.75 Mean = 

### ($1

# 305lIl 

# lIllIIIIIllhIIII1 d, 

# .000 ......iiii.i i riii..r - 

### 0 ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750

Certainty is 70.09% from -Infinity to $0 $

... 

## Figure K.39 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior 

## Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 76 Outliers 1.000

- 

### 10000 .750 .500 

# 1 .iiiIIIIllI0, I ¶ H J .L
_____________________________________ ___________________________________ 0 ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750

Certainty is 70.09% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

## Figure K.40 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior
K-2 110,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 67 Outliers 

### .033

_____________ 

### .025

___________________________ 

# III

_____________________ 

# - 333

____________ 

### 249.7

. 

### 017 166.5

-= 

### .008 1 ..:.

### ...

# .:... .•. 83.25 

# II h Jjjjj 1 1 .ian = 

### ($6 

# 11iiii11iiiiliitI ' 000 l••

# 11 ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750

___________ Certainty is 56.62% from -Infinity to $0$ 

### Figure K.41 MEF of 1.485 (45% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior

10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 67 Outliers 

### 1.000 

# - 10000



# 1111I1HhIOHIUH 750

___________________________________________________________________

# 11iiii1III .liII r1]Ir1I)utIIIIJIIJII I 11 

# F UIiluh.,. 

# . 11111 III I 

### IIIIII''1IiiiI'I =

- 

### 500



# _________________ _. ••


# _________________________________________ .



# - I I =

- III I



# f IIIII - 0

_______________________ __________________________________________ 

# uhf 1 =

- 

# ::: 

# IlllIIIIIIIhIIIII

# MLt flII

i..nnh 0 

### ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750

Certainty is 56.62% from -Infinity to $0$ 

### Figure K.42 MEF of 1.485 (45% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior

K-22

# 10,000Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 67 Outliers .033 .024 326 244.5 I II 

### = 1 L

. 

### .016 163 

## 'H i -

### =

. 

### .008 .. . .....

### __________ 1 

### .. ______________ 81.5 

# iL . 

# .__ .000 0 ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750



### Certainty is 55.00% from -Infinity to $0 $ Figure K.43 MEF of 1.634 (50% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior

Figure K.44 MEF of 1.634(50%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior

K-23

## APPENDIX L. PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS FOR CONSUMER SUBGROUPS

.............

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## TABLE OF CONTENTS Figure L.1 MEF of 0.860 (5%Reduction in Energy Usage), Low Income L-2 Figure L.2 MEF of 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy Consumption), Low Income L-2 Figure L.3 MEF of 0.961 (15%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income L-3 Figure L.4 MEF of 1.021(20% Reduction in Energy Usage), Low Income L-3 FigureL.5 MEF of 1.04 in 2004, Low Income L-4 Figure L.6 MEF of 1.089 (25%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income L4 Figure L.7 MEF of 1.257 (35%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income 

## L-5 Figure L.8 MEF = 1.26 in 2007, Low Income 

## L-5 Figure L.9 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income L-6 Figure L.10 MEF of 1.485 (45%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income L-6 Figure L. 11 MEF of 1.634 (50% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income L-7 Figure L.12 MEF of 0.86(5%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior L-8 Figure L.13 MEF of 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior L-8 Figure L.14 MEF of 0.961 (15%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior L-9 Figure L. 15 MEF of 1.021(20% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior L-9 Figure L.16 MEF = 1.04 in 2004, Senior L-10 Figure L.17 MEF of 1.089 (25%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior L-10 Figure L. 18 MEF of 1.257 (35%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior L- 11 Figure L.19 MEF = 1.26 in 2007. Senior L-11 Figure L.20 MEF of 1.362 (40% Reduction in Energy Use), Senior L-12 Figure L.21 MEF of 1.485 (45%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior L-12 Figure L.22 MEF of 1.634 (50%Reduction in Energy Use), Senior L-13

L-.i

## APPENDIX L. PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS FOR CONSUMER SUBGROUPS

This appendix contains the complete set of simple payback period results for the subgroups of low income and senior households. For details on the methodology used to calculate the payback period refer to Chapter 8. For each efficiency level, frequency charts are provided showing the distribution of expected payback periods.

L- 1

## Forecast: Payback (yrs)

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 258 Outliers .412

- 

### -4117 .309

- 

### .C .206- 

## =

. 

### .103---

LMean=0.1

- 

### 0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 

## Figure L.1 MEF of 0.860 (5% Reduction in Energy Usage), Low Income 

## Forecast: Payback (yrs) 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 295 Outliers .452 - - 

### 4516 

## .339 - ______ _______________________________________________

- 

### :i 

## =

. 

### .226- -- - 

## = o = I-

_____ ______________________________________ -. 

## -l 

# I___ 

# Ii. IMean=0.7

- 

### 000 - 

### iiillliii.,gi ._.-_.--.. - - 

### 0 0.0 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.0 

## Figure L.2 MEF of 0.908 (10% Reduction in Energy Consumption), Low Income

L-210,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 275 Outliers 

### .309 .232

- _____________________________________ - 

### 3092

________ =

. 

### .155

- _____________________________________________ -= = 

# & .077---

- 

### 773 

# IIi 1L1L 1 .ooo 0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 

### Figure L.3 MEF of 0.961 (15% Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income
10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 265 Outliers 

### .290 .218 2904

=

. 

### .145

-= 

### rD o = .073 726

.000 ----, 

# 1 0 0.0 6.3 12.5 18.8 25.0 Figure L.4 MEF of 1.02 1 (20% Reduction in Energy Usage), Low Income Mean=4.4

- IIIllihIH

..



### L-310,000 Trials 

### .033 

# .024 .016

-

. 

# & .008 .000 Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 219 Outliers


# - 326 244.5 

## 1 

# - -' 

### _1163

-
= 

# -if81.5 17.5 Figure L.5 MEF of 1.04 in 2004, Low Income Forecast: Payback (yrs) 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 190 Outliers 

### .029 286
021 

# ii 1111 II 2145 % _ _____________________________________________________________________ 

### .



# F 014 . H

______________________________________________________________________________________ _ 

# ' 

# :::i : 0.0 4.4 8.8 13.1 17.5 Figure L.6 MEF of 1.089

# (25%Reduction in Energy Use), Low Income

L-4 0.0 4.4 8.8 13.1