### 1395 

# AII

Editorial Team: Michael Prather (USA), Gregory Flato (Canada), Pierre Friedlingstein (UK/Belgium), Christopher Jones (UK), Jean-François Lamarque (USA), Hong Liao (China), Philip Rasch (USA) 

## Contributors: Olivier Boucher (France), François-Marie Bréon (France), Tim Carter (Finland), William Collins (UK), Frank J. Dentener (EU/Netherlands), Edward J. Dlugokencky (USA), Jean-Louis Dufresne (France), Jan Willem Erisman (Netherlands), Veronika Eyring (Germany), Arlene M. Fiore (USA), James Galloway (USA), Jonathan M. Gregory (UK), Ed Hawkins (UK), Chris Holmes (USA), Jasmin John (USA), Tim Johns (UK), Fiona Lo (USA), Natalie Mahowald (USA), Malte Meinshausen (Germany), Colin Morice (UK), Vaishali Naik (USA/India), Drew Shindell (USA), Steven J. Smith (USA), David Stevenson (UK), Peter W. Thorne (USA/Norway/UK), Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (Netherlands), Apostolos Voulgarakis (UK/Greece), Oliver Wild (UK), Donald Wuebbles (USA), Paul Young (UK) 

# Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables

This annex should be cited as: IPCC, 2013: Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables [Prather, M., G. Flato, P. Friedlingstein, C. Jones, J.-F. Lamarque, H. Liao and P. Rasch (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

### 1396 

# Table of Contents

Introduction

................................................................................ 1397 

## Chemical Abbreviations and Symbols

................................. 1397 

## List of Tables

................................................................................ 1398 

## References

................................................................................ 1400 

## Tables

........................................................................................ 1401 AII.1: Historical Climate System Data

......................................... 1401 AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions

.................................................. 1410 AII.3: Natural Emissions

............................................................. 1421 AII.4: Abundances of the Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases

........... 1422 AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes

.................... 1428 AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing

................................................ 1433 AII.7: Environmental Data

.......................................................... 1437

### 1397 1 

### A few HFCs and HCFCs are very short lived in the atmosphere and therefore not well mixed. 

# Introduction Annex II presents, in tabulated form, data related to historical and pro

jected changes in the climate system that are assessed in the chap

ters of this report (see Section 1.6). It also includes some comparisons with the Third Assessment Report (TAR) and Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) results. These data include values for emissions into the atmo

sphere, atmospheric abundances and burdens (integrated abundance), effective radiative forcing (ERF; includes adjusted forcing from aero

sols, see Chapters 7 and 8), and global mean surface temperatures and sea level. Projections from 2010 to 2100 focus on the RCP scenarios (Moss et al., 2010; Lamarque et al., 2010; 2011; Meinshausen et al., 2011a; van Vuuren et al., 2011; see also Chapters 1, 6, 8, 11, 12 and 13). Projections also include previous IPCC scenarios (IPCC Scenarios 1992a (IS92a), Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1, TAR Appendix II) and some alternative near-term scenarios for meth

ane (CH 4

## ) and short-lived pollutants that impact climate or air quality. Emissions from biomass burning are included as anthropogenic. ERF from land use change is also included in some tables. Where uncertainties or ranges are presented here, they are noted in each table as being a recommended value or model ensemble mean/ median with a 68% confidence interval (16 to 84%, ±1 σ for a normal distribution) or 90% confidence interval (5 to 95%, ±1.645σ for a normal distribution) or statistics (standard deviation, percentiles, or minimum/maximum) of an ensemble of models. In some cases these are a formal evaluation of uncertainty as assessed in the chapters, but in other cases (specifically Tables AII.2.1, 3.1, 4.1, 5.1, 6.10, 7.1 to 7.5) they just describe the statistical results from the available models, and the referenced chapters must be consulted for the assessed uncertainty or confidence level of these results. In the case of Table AII.7.5, for example, the global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative to 1986–2005 is a statistical summary of the spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles for each of the sce

narios: model biases and model dependencies are not accounted for; the percentiles do not correspond to the assessed uncertainty derived in Chapters 11 (Section 11.3.6.3) and 12 (Section 12.4.1); and statisti

cal spread across models cannot be interpreted in terms of calibrated language (Section 12.2). The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for emis

sions include only anthropogenic sources and use a single model to project from emissions to abundances to radiative forcing to climate change (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; 2011b). We include projected changes in natural carbon dioxide (CO2

## ) sources and sinks for 2010– 2100 based on this assessment (Chapters 6 and 12). Present-day natu

ral and anthropogenic emissions of CH 4

## and nitrous oxide (N 2

## O) are assessed and used to scale the RCP anthropogenic emissions to be con

sistent with these best estimates (Chapters 6 and 11). Current model evaluations of atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle, including results from the CMIP5 and Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) projects, are used to project future composition and ERF separately from the RCP model (see Sections 6.4.3, 11.3.5 and 12.3). Thus, projected changes in greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols and ERF evaluated in this report may differ from the published RCPs and from what was used in the CMIP5 runs, and these are denoted RCP&

## . The CMIP5 climate projections used for the most part the RCP concentration pathways for well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG) and the emissions pathways for ozone (O3

## ) and aerosol pre

cursors. Such differences are discussed in the relevant chapters and noted in the tables. For each species, the abundances (given as dry air mole fraction: ppm = micromoles per mole (10–6

## ); ppb = nanomoles per mole (10–9

## ); and ppt = picomoles per mole (10–12

## )), burdens (global total in grams, 1 Tg = 1012

## g), average column amount (1 Dobson Unit (DU) = 2.687 × 1016 

## molecules per cm2

## ), AOD (mean aerosol optical depth at 550 nm), ERF (effective radiative forcing, W m–2

## ), and other climate system quantities are calculated for scenarios using methodologies based on the latest climate chemistry and climate carbon models (see Chapters 2, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 and 12). Results are shown for individual years (e.g., 2010 = year 2010) and decadal averages (e.g., 2020d

## = average of years 2016 through 2025), although some 10-year periods are different, see table notes. Year 2011 is the last year for observed quantities (denoted 2011* or 2011 obs

## ). Results are shown as global mean values except for environmental data focussing on air quality (Tables AII.7.1–AII.7.4), which give regional mean surface abundances of O3

## and fine particu

late matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM 2.5

## ). Results for global mean surface temperature (Tables AII.7.5 and AII.7.6) show only raw CMIP5 data or data from previous assessments. For best estimates of near-term and long-term temperature change see Chapters 11 and 12, respectively. Results for global mean sea level rise (Table AII.7.7) are assessed values with uncertainties described in Chapter 13. 

# Chemical Abbreviations and Symbols Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases (WMGHG)

CO2 

## carbon dioxide (KP, Kyoto Protocol gas) CH 4 

## methane (KP) N 2

## O nitrous oxide (KP) HFC hydrofluorocarbon 1

## (a class of compounds: HFC-32, HFC134a, ...) (KP) PFC perfluorocarbon (a class of compounds: CF4

## , C2

## F6

## , ...) (KP) SF6 

## sulphur hexafluoride (KP) NF3 

## nitrogen trifluoride (KP) CFC chlorofluorocarbon (a class of compounds: CFCl 3

## , CF2

## Cl 2

## , ...) (MP, Montreal Protocol gas) HCFC hydrochlorofluorocarbon 1

## (a class of compounds: HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, ...) (MP) CCl4 

## carbon tetrachloride (MP) CH 3

## CCl 3 

## methyl chloroform (MP)

### 1398 

## Ozone and Aerosols, and their Precursors

O3 

## ozone (both stratospheric and tropospheric) NOx 

## sum of NO (nitric oxide) and NO2

## (nitrogen dioxide) NH 3 

## ammonia CO carbon monoxide NMVOC a class of compounds comprising all non-methane volatile organic compounds (i.e., hydrocarbons that may also contain oxygen, also known as biogenic VOC or NMHC) OH hydroxyl radical PM 2.5 

## any aerosols with diameter less than 2.5 μm BC black carbon aerosol OC organic carbon aerosol SO2 

## sulphur dioxide, a gas SOx 

## oxidized sulphur in gaseous form, including SO2 

## SO4= 

## sulphate ion, usually as sulphuric acid or ammonium sul

phate in aerosol



# List of Tables AII.1: Historical Climate System Data Table AII.1.1a:Historical abundances of the Kyoto greenhouse gases Table AII.1.1b:Historical abundances of the Montreal Protocol green

house gas (all ppt) Table AII.1.2:Historical effective radiative forcing (ERF) (W m–2

## ), including land use change (LUC) Table AII.1.3:Historical global decadal-mean global surface-air temperature (°C) relative to 1961–1990 average 

## AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions Table AII.2.1a:Anthropogenic CO2

## emissions from fossil fuels and other industrial sources (FF) (PgC yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.1b: Anthropogenic CO2

## emissions from agriculture, forestry, land use (AFOLU) (PgC yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.1c: Anthropogenic total CO2

## emissions (PgC yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.2: Anthropogenic CH 4

## emissions (Tg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.3: Anthropogenic N 2

## O emissions (TgN yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.4:Anthropogenic SF6

## emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.5:Anthropogenic CF4

## emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.6: Anthropogenic C2

## F6

## emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.7: Anthropogenic C6

## F14

## emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.8:Anthropogenic HFC-23 emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.9:Anthropogenic HFC-32 emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.10:Anthropogenic HFC-125 emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.11:Anthropogenic HFC-134a emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.12:Anthropogenic HFC-143a emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.13:Anthropogenic HFC-227ea emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.14:Anthropogenic HFC-245fa emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.15:Anthropogenic HFC-43-10mee emissions (Gg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.16:Anthropogenic CO emissions (Tg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.17:Anthropogenic NMVOC emissions (Tg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.18:Anthropogenic NOX

## emissions (TgN yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.19:Anthropogenic NH 3

## emissions (TgN yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.20:Anthropogenic SOX

## emissions (TgS yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.21:Anthropogenic OC aerosols emissions (Tg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.22:Anthropogenic BC aerosols emissions (Tg yr–1

## ) Table AII.2.23:Anthropogenic nitrogen fixation (Tg-N yr–1

## ) 

## AII.3: Natural Emissions Table AII.3.1a:Net land (natural and land use) CO2

## emissions (PgC yr–1

## ) Table AII.3.1b:Net ocean CO2

## emissions (PgC yr–1

## ) 

## AII.4: Abundances of the Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases Table AII.4.1:CO2

## abundance (ppm) Table AII.4.2:CH 4

## abundance (ppb) Table AII.4.3:N 2

## O abundance (ppb) Table AII.4.4:SF6

## abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.5: CF4

## abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.6:C2

## F6

## abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.7:C6

## F14

## abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.8:HFC-23 abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.9:HFC-32 abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.10:HFC-125 abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.11:HFC-134a abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.12:HFC-143a abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.13:HFC-227ea abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.14:HFC-245fa abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.15:HFC-43-10mee abundance (ppt) Table AII.4.16:Montreal Protocol greenhouse gas abundances (ppt) 

## AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes Table AII.5.1:Stratospheric O3

## column changes (DU) Table AII.5.2:Tropospheric O3

## column changes (DU) Table AII.5.3:Total aerosol optical depth (AOD) Table AII.5.4:Absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) Table AII.5.5:Sulphate aerosol atmospheric burden (TgS) Table AII.5.6:OC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg) Table AII.5.7:BC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg) Table AII.5.8:CH 4

## atmospheric lifetime (yr) against loss by tropo

spheric OH Table AII.5.9:N 2

## O atmospheric lifetime (yr) 

## AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing Table AII.6.1:ERF from CO2

## (W m–2

## ) Table AII.6.2:ERF from CH 4

## (W m–2

## ) Table AII.6.3:ERF from N 2

## O (W m–2

## ) Table AII.6.4:ERF from all HFCs (W m–2

## ) Table AII.6.5:ERF from all PFCs and SF6

## (W m–2

## ) Table AII.6.6:ERF from Montreal Protocol greenhouse gases (W m–2

## ) Table AII.6.7a:ERF from stratospheric O3

## changes since 1850 (W m–2

## ) Table AII.6.7b:ERF from tropospheric O3

## changes since 1850 (W m–2

## ) Table AII.6.8:Total anthropogenic ERF from published RCPs and SRES (W m–2

## ) Table AII.6.9:ERF components relative to 1850 (W m–2

## ) derived from ACCMIP Table AII.6.10:Total anthropogenic plus natural ERF (W m–2

## ) from CMIP5 and CMIP3, including historical

### 1399 

## AII.7: Environmental Data Table AII.7.1:Global mean surface O3

## change (ppb) Table AII.7.2:Surface O3

## change (ppb) for HTAP regions Table AII.7.3:Surface O3

## change (ppb) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions Table AII.7.4:Surface particulate matter change (log 10

## [PM 2.5 

## (microgram/m3

## )]) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions Table AII.7.5:CMIP5 (RCP) and CMIP3 (SRES A1B) global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative to 1986–2005 reference period Table AII.7.6:Global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative to 1990 from the TAR Table AII.7.7: Global mean sea level rise (m) with respect to 1986– 2005 at 1 January on the years indicated

### 1400 

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. Change, 109, 213–241. Moss, R. H., et al., 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747–756. Prather, M., et al., 2001: Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noquer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 239–287. Prather, M., et al., 2003: Fresh air in the 21st century? Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1100. Prather, M. J., C. D. Holmes, and J. Hsu, 2012: Reactive greenhouse gas scenarios: Systematic exploration of uncertainties and the role of atmospheric chemistry. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09803. Rogelj, J., et al., 2011: Emission pathways consistent with a 2°C global temperature limit. Nature Clim. Change, 1 , 413–418. Shindell, D.T., J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, et al., 2013: Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939–2974. Stevenson, D. S., et al., 2013: Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085. van Vuuren, D. P., et al., 2008: Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. , 105, 15258–15262. van Vuuren, D., et al., 2011: The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Clim. Change, 109, 5–31. Voulgarakis, A., et al., 2013: Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations. 21 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587. Wild, O., A.M. Fiore et al., 2012: Modelling future changes in surface ozone: A parameterized approach. Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 12, 2037–2054. WMO. 2010. Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project—Report No. 52. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Young, P. J., et al., 2013: Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090.

### 1401 Year CO2

### (ppm) CH 4

### (ppb) N 2

### O (ppb) PI* 278 ± 2 722 ± 25 270 ± 7 1755 276.7 723 272.8 1760 276.5 726 274.1 1765 276.6 730 274.2 1770 277.3 733 273.7 1775 278.0 736 273.1 1780 278.2 739 272.4 1785 278.6 742 271.9 1790 280.0 745 271.8 1795 281.4 748 272.1 1800 282.6 751 272.6 1805 283.6 755 272.1 1810 284.2 760 271.4 1815 284.0 765 271.5 1820 283.3 769 272.9 1825 283.1 774 274.1 1830 283.8 779 273.7 1835 283.9 784 270.5 1840 284.1 789 269.6 1845 285.8 795 270.3 1850 286.8 802 270.4 1855 286.4 808 270.6 1860 286.1 815 271.7 1865 286.3 823 272.3 1870 288.0 831 273.0 1875 289.4 839 274.7 1880 289.8 847 275.8 1885 290.9 856 277.2 1890 293.1 866 278.3 1895 295.4 877 277.7 1900 296.2 891 277.3 1905 297.4 912 279.2 1910 299.3 935 280.8 1915 301.1 961 282.7 1920 303.3 990 285.1 1925 304.7 1020 284.3 1930 306.6 1049 284.9 1935 308.4 1077 286.6 1940 310.4 1102 287.7 1945 310.9 1129 288.0 1950 311.2 1162 287.6 1955 313.4 1207 289.6 1956 314.0 1217 290.4 1957 314.6 1228 291.2 1958 315.3 1239 291.7 

### Year CO2

### (ppm) CH 4

### (ppb) N 2

### O (ppb) PI* 278 ± 2 722 ± 25 270 ± 7 1959 316.0 1251 292.1 1960 316.7 1263 292.4 1961 317.4 1275 292.5 1962 318.0 1288 292.5 1963 318.5 1301 292.6 1964 319.0 319.0 292.6 1965 319.7 1328 292.7 1966 320.6 1343 292.9 1967 321.5 1357 293.3 1968 322.5 1372 293.8 1969 323.5 1388 294.4 1970 324.6 1403 295.2 1971 325.6 1419 296.0 1972 326.8 1435 296.9 1973 328.0 1451 297.8 1974 329.2 1467 298.4 1975 330.2 1483 299.0 1976 331.3 1500 299.4 1977 332.7 1516 299.8 1978 334.3 1532 300.2 1979 336.2 1549 300.7 1980 338.0 1567 301.3 1981 339.3 1587 302.0 1982 340.5 1607 303.0 1983 342.1 1626 303.9 1984 343.7 1643 304.5 1985 345.2 1657 305.5 1986 346.6 1670 305.9 1987 348.4 1682 306.3 1988 350.5 1694 306.7 1989 352.2 1704 307.8 1990 353.6 1714 308.7 1991 354.8 1725 309.3 1992 355.7 1733 309.8 1993 356.6 1738 310.1 1994 358.0 1743 310.4 1995 359.9 1747 311.0 1996 361.4 1751 311.8 1997 363.1 1757 312.7 1998 365.2 1765 313.7 1999 367.2 1771 314.7 2000 368.7 1773 315.6 2001 370.2 1773 316.3 2002 372.3 1774 317.0 

# Tables AII.1: Historical Climate System Data Table AII.1.1a | Historical abundances of the Kyoto greenhouse gases

(continued on next page)

### 1402 Table AII.1.1a(continued) 

### Year SF6

### (ppt) CF4

### (ppt) C2

### F6

### (ppt) C6

### F 14

### (ppt) NF3

### (ppt) PI* 0 35 0 0 1900 0 35 0 0 1910 0 35 0.1 0 1920 0 35 0.1 0 1930 0 36 0.2 0 1940 0 37 0.3 0 1950 0 39 0.5 0 1960 0.1 43 0.6 0 1970 0.3 51 0.8 0 1980 0.8 60 1.2 0 1990 2.4 68 1.9 0 2000 4.5 76 2.9 0 2005 5.6 75 3.7 0 0.3 2010 7.0 78.3 4.1 0 2011* 7.3 ± 0.1 79.0 4.2 0 0.6



### Year HFC-23 (ppt) HFC-32 (ppt) HFC-125 (ppt) HFC-134a (ppt) HFC-143a (ppt) HFC-227ea (ppt) HFC-245fa (ppt) HFC-43-10mee (ppt) PI* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1940 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1950 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1960 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1970 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1980 3.7 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0 1990 7.9 0 0.1 0 0.6 0 0 0 2000 14.8 0 1.3 14 3.1 0.1 0 0 2010 23.2 4.1 8.2 58 10.9 0.6 1.1 0 2011* 24.0 4.9 9.6 63 ± 1 12.0 0.65 1.24 0 Notes: Abundances are mole fraction of dry air for the lower, well-mixed atmosphere (ppm = micromoles per mole, ppb = nanomoles per mole, ppt = picomoles per mole). Values refer to single-year average. Uncertainties (5 to 95% confidence intervals) are given for 2011 only when more than one laboratory reports global data. Pre-industrial (PI*, taken to be 1750 for GHG) and present day (2011*) abundances are from Chapter 2, Tables 2.1 and 2.SM.1; see also Chapter 6 for Holocene variability (10 ppm CO2, 40 ppb CH 4, 10 ppb N 2O). Intermediate data for CO2, CH 4and N 2O are from Chapters 2 and 8, Figure 8.6. See also Appendix 1.A. Intermediate data for the F-gases are taken from Meinshausen et al. (2011). 

### Year CO2

### (ppm) CH 4

### (ppb) N 2

### O (ppb) PI* 278 ± 2 722 ± 25 270 ± 7 2003 374.5 1776 317.6 2004 376.6 1776 318.3 2005 378.7 1776 319.1 2006 380.8 1776 319.8 2007 382.7 1781 320.6 2008 384.6 1787 321.4 2005 378.7 1776 319.1 2006 380.8 1776 319.8 2007 382.7 1781 320.6 2008 384.6 1787 321.4 2009 386.4 1792 322.3 2010 388.4 1798 323.2 2011* 390.5 ± 0.3 1803 ± 4 324 ± 1

### 1403 Table AII.1.1b | Historical abundances of the Montreal Protocol greenhouse gases (all ppt) 

### Year CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl 4 

### CH 3

### CCl 3 

### HCFC-22 PI* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1960 9.5 29.5 1.9 3.8 0.0 52.1 1.5 2.1 1965 23.5 58.8 3.1 5.0 0.0 64.4 4.7 4.9 1970 52.8 114.3 5.5 6.5 0.2 75.9 16.2 12.1 1975 106.1 203.1 10.4 8.3 0.6 85.5 40.0 23.8 1980 161.9 297.4 19.0 10.7 1.3 93.3 81.6 42.5 1985 205.4 381.2 37.3 12.9 2.8 99.6 106.1 62.7 1990 256.2 477.5 67.6 15.4 4.7 106.5 127.2 88.2 1995 267.4 523.8 83.6 16.1 6.8 103.2 110.3 113.6 2000 261.7 541.0 82.3 16.5 7.9 98.6 49.7 139.5 2005 251.6 542.7 78.8 16.6 8.3 93.7 20.1 165.5 2010 240.9 532.5 75.6 16.4 8.4 87.6 8.3 206.8 2011* 238 ± 1 528±2 74.3±0.5 15.8 8.4 86±2 6.4±0.4 213±2



### Year HCFC-141b HCFC-142b Halon 1211 Halon 1202 Halon 1301 Halon 2402 CH 3

### Br CH 3

### Cl PI* 0 0 0 0 0 0 1960 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.5 510 1965 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.7 528 1970 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.0 540 1975 0.0 0.2 0.12 0.01 0.04 0.06 7.4 546 1980 0.0 0.4 0.42 0.01 0.24 0.15 7.7 548 1985 0.0 0.7 1.04 0.02 0.74 0.26 8.2 549 1990 0.0 1.2 2.27 0.03 1.66 0.41 8.6 550 1995 2.7 6.3 3.34 0.04 2.63 0.52 9.2 550 2000 11.8 11.4 4.02 0.04 2.84 0.50 8.9 550 2005 17.5 15.1 4.26 0.02 3.03 0.48 7.9 550 2010 20.3 20.5 4.07 0.00 3.20 0.46 7.2 550 2011* 21.4±0.5 21.2±0.5 4.07 0.00 3.23 0.45 7.1 534 Notes: See Table AII.1.1a. For present-day (2011*) see Chapter 2. Intermediate years are from Scenario A1, WMO Ozone Assessment (WMO, 2010).

### 1404 Table AII.1.2 | Historical effective radiative forcing (ERF) (W m–2

### ), including land use change (LUC)



### Year CO2 

### GHG Other* O3 

### (Trop) O3 

### (Strat) Aerosol (Total) LUC H 2

### O (Strat) BC Snow Con– trails Solar Volcano

1750 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.001 1751 –0.023 0.004 0.000 0.000 –0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.014 0.000 1752 –0.024 0.006 0.001 0.000 –0.004 –0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.029 0.000 1753 –0.024 0.007 0.001 0.000 –0.005 –0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.033 0.000 1754 –0.025 0.008 0.002 0.000 –0.007 –0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.043 0.000 1755 –0.026 0.010 0.002 0.000 –0.009 –0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.054 –0.664 1756 –0.026 0.011 0.003 0.000 –0.011 –0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.055 0.000 1757 –0.027 0.013 0.003 0.000 –0.013 –0.003 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.048 0.000 1758 –0.028 0.014 0.003 0.000 –0.014 –0.003 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.050 0.000 1759 –0.028 0.015 0.004 0.000 –0.016 –0.004 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.102 0.000 1760 –0.029 0.016 0.004 0.000 –0.018 –0.004 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.112 –0.060 1761 –0.029 0.017 0.005 0.000 –0.020 –0.004 0.000 0.002 0.000 –0.016 –1.093 1762 –0.029 0.017 0.005 0.000 –0.021 –0.005 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.007 –0.300 1763 –0.029 0.018 0.006 0.000 –0.023 –0.005 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.018 –0.093 1764 –0.028 0.018 0.006 0.000 –0.025 –0.006 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.022 –0.021 1765 –0.026 0.018 0.006 0.000 –0.027 –0.006 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.054 –0.003 1766 –0.024 0.018 0.007 0.000 –0.029 –0.006 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.048 0.000 1767 –0.022 0.018 0.007 0.000 –0.030 –0.007 0.001 0.003 0.000 –0.036 0.000 1768 –0.020 0.018 0.008 0.000 –0.032 –0.007 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.016 0.000 1769 –0.017 0.018 0.008 0.000 –0.034 –0.008 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.050 0.000 1770 –0.014 0.018 0.009 0.000 –0.036 –0.008 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.081 0.000 1771 –0.011 0.018 0.009 0.000 –0.038 –0.008 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.055 0.000 1772 –0.008 0.018 0.009 0.000 –0.039 –0.009 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.052 –0.070 1773 –0.005 0.018 0.010 0.000 –0.041 –0.009 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.016 –0.020 1774 –0.003 0.018 0.010 0.000 –0.043 –0.010 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.002 –0.005 1775 –0.001 0.018 0.011 0.000 –0.045 –0.010 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.038 –0.001 1776 0.001 0.018 0.011 0.000 –0.046 –0.010 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.045 0.000 1777 0.002 0.018 0.011 0.000 –0.048 –0.011 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.036 0.000 1778 0.003 0.018 0.012 0.000 –0.050 –0.011 0.001 0.004 0.000 0.017 –0.067 1779 0.003 0.018 0.012 0.000 –0.052 –0.012 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.034 –0.071 1780 0.003 0.018 0.013 0.000 –0.054 –0.012 0.002 0.004 0.000 –0.069 –0.018 1781 0.004 0.018 0.013 0.000 –0.055 –0.012 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.057 –0.004 1782 0.004 0.018 0.014 0.000 –0.057 –0.013 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.028 –0.001 1783 0.006 0.018 0.014 0.000 –0.059 –0.013 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.065 –7.857 1784 0.009 0.018 0.014 0.000 –0.061 –0.014 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.059 –0.522 1785 0.012 0.018 0.015 0.000 –0.062 –0.014 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.046 –0.121 1786 0.017 0.018 0.015 0.000 –0.064 –0.014 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.022 –0.027 1787 0.021 0.018 0.016 0.000 –0.066 –0.015 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.001 –0.002 1788 0.027 0.018 0.016 0.000 –0.068 –0.015 0.002 0.006 0.000 0.034 –0.133 1789 0.033 0.019 0.017 0.000 –0.070 –0.016 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.033 –0.041 1790 0.038 0.019 0.017 0.000 –0.071 –0.016 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.058 –0.009 1791 0.044 0.019 0.017 0.000 –0.073 –0.016 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.056 –0.001 1792 0.050 0.020 0.018 0.000 –0.075 –0.017 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.051 0.000 1793 0.055 0.020 0.018 0.000 –0.077 –0.017 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.065 0.000 1794 0.060 0.021 0.019 0.000 –0.079 –0.018 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.064 –0.157 1795 0.066 0.022 0.019 0.000 –0.080 –0.018 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.027 0.000 1796 0.070 0.023 0.020 0.000 –0.082 –0.018 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.033 –0.781 1797 0.075 0.023 0.020 0.000 –0.084 –0.019 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.043 –0.071 1798 0.079 0.024 0.020 0.000 –0.086 –0.019 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.045 –0.016

### 1405 Table AII.1.2 | (continued)



### Year CO2 

### GHG Other* O3 

### (Trop) O3 

### (Strat) Aerosol (Total) LUC H 2

### O (Strat) BC Snow Con– trails Solar Volcano

1799 0.084 0.025 0.021 0.000 –0.087 –0.020 0.003 0.007 0.000 –0.047 –0.002 1800 0.088 0.025 0.021 0.000 –0.089 –0.020 0.003 0.007 0.000 –0.055 0.000 1801 0.092 0.026 0.022 0.000 –0.091 –0.020 0.003 0.007 0.000 –0.021 –0.154 1802 0.096 0.026 0.022 0.000 –0.093 –0.021 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.010 –0.048 1803 0.099 0.026 0.023 0.000 –0.095 –0.021 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.033 –0.011 1804 0.103 0.026 0.023 0.000 –0.096 –0.022 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.040 –0.230 1805 0.106 0.026 0.023 0.000 –0.098 –0.022 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.046 –0.070 1806 0.109 0.026 0.024 0.000 –0.100 –0.022 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.036 –0.016 1807 0.112 0.026 0.024 0.000 –0.102 –0.023 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.057 –0.002 1808 0.114 0.026 0.025 0.000 –0.104 –0.023 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.065 0.000 1809 0.116 0.026 0.025 0.000 –0.105 –0.024 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.065 –6.947 1810 0.117 0.026 0.025 0.000 –0.107 –0.024 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.070 –2.254 1811 0.118 0.027 0.026 0.000 –0.109 –0.024 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.072 –0.836 1812 0.119 0.027 0.026 0.000 –0.111 –0.025 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.072 –0.308 1813 0.118 0.028 0.027 0.000 –0.112 –0.025 0.004 0.009 0.000 –0.069 –0.109 1814 0.117 0.029 0.027 0.000 –0.114 –0.026 0.004 0.009 0.000 –0.064 0.000 1815 0.115 0.030 0.028 0.000 –0.116 –0.026 0.004 0.009 0.000 –0.062 –11.629 1816 0.113 0.031 0.028 0.000 –0.118 –0.026 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.052 –4.553 1817 0.110 0.032 0.028 0.000 –0.120 –0.027 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.048 –2.419 1818 0.107 0.034 0.029 0.000 –0.121 –0.027 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.053 –0.915 1819 0.104 0.035 0.029 0.000 –0.123 –0.028 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.054 –0.337 1820 0.101 0.037 0.030 0.000 –0.125 –0.028 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.059 –0.039 1821 0.099 0.038 0.030 0.000 –0.127 –0.028 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.065 0.000 1822 0.097 0.040 0.031 0.000 –0.128 –0.029 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.066 0.000 1823 0.096 0.041 0.031 0.000 –0.130 –0.029 0.004 0.011 0.000 –0.068 0.000 1824 0.097 0.042 0.031 0.000 –0.132 –0.030 0.004 0.011 0.000 –0.059 0.000 1825 0.098 0.043 0.032 0.000 –0.134 –0.030 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.052 0.000 1826 0.100 0.044 0.032 0.000 –0.136 –0.030 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.044 0.000 1827 0.103 0.045 0.033 0.000 –0.137 –0.031 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.018 0.000 1828 0.106 0.045 0.033 0.000 –0.139 –0.031 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.008 0.000 1829 0.109 0.045 0.034 0.000 –0.141 –0.032 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.006 0.000 1830 0.111 0.045 0.034 0.000 –0.143 –0.032 0.005 0.012 0.000 0.002 0.000 1831 0.113 0.044 0.034 0.000 –0.145 –0.032 0.005 0.012 0.000 0.002 –1.538 1832 0.114 0.043 0.035 0.000 –0.146 –0.033 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.020 –1.229 1833 0.114 0.041 0.035 0.000 –0.148 –0.033 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.035 –0.605 1834 0.114 0.039 0.036 0.000 –0.150 –0.034 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.038 –0.223 1835 0.113 0.037 0.036 0.000 –0.152 –0.034 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.033 –4.935 1836 0.112 0.036 0.037 0.000 –0.153 –0.034 0.005 0.012 0.000 0.017 –1.445 1837 0.112 0.035 0.037 0.000 –0.155 –0.035 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.055 –0.523 1838 0.112 0.035 0.037 0.000 –0.157 –0.035 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.051 –0.192 1839 0.114 0.036 0.038 0.000 –0.159 –0.036 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.028 –0.069 1840 0.117 0.037 0.038 0.000 –0.161 –0.036 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.027 –0.047 1841 0.121 0.038 0.039 0.000 –0.162 –0.036 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.007 –0.013 1842 0.127 0.040 0.039 0.000 –0.164 –0.037 0.006 0.013 0.000 –0.006 –0.003 1843 0.135 0.041 0.039 0.000 –0.166 –0.037 0.006 0.013 0.000 –0.013 –0.052 1844 0.142 0.042 0.040 0.000 –0.168 –0.038 0.006 0.014 0.000 –0.024 –0.014 1845 0.149 0.043 0.040 0.000 –0.169 –0.038 0.006 0.014 0.000 –0.026 –0.003 1846 0.155 0.044 0.041 0.000 –0.171 –0.038 0.006 0.014 0.000 –0.024 –0.071 1847 0.160 0.044 0.041 0.000 –0.173 –0.039 0.007 0.014 0.000 –0.062 –0.020 1848 0.163 0.045 0.042 0.000 –0.175 –0.039 0.007 0.014 0.000 –0.018 –0.005

### 1406 Table AII.1.2 | (continued)



### Year CO2 

### GHG Other* O3 

### (Trop) O3 

### (Strat) Aerosol (Total) LUC H 2

### O (Strat) BC Snow Con– trails Solar Volcano

1849 0.166 0.046 0.042 0.000 –0.177 –0.040 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.043 –0.001 1850 0.167 0.046 0.042 0.000 –0.178 –0.040 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.024 –0.100 1851 0.167 0.047 0.043 0.000 –0.180 –0.040 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.016 –0.075 1852 0.166 0.048 0.044 0.000 –0.182 –0.041 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.020 –0.025 1853 0.164 0.049 0.045 0.000 –0.184 –0.041 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.011 –0.025 1854 0.162 0.050 0.046 0.000 –0.185 –0.041 0.007 0.016 0.000 –0.010 0.000 1855 0.160 0.051 0.047 0.000 –0.187 –0.042 0.007 0.016 0.000 –0.027 –0.050 1856 0.158 0.052 0.048 0.000 –0.189 –0.042 0.007 0.016 0.000 –0.037 –0.975 1857 0.156 0.054 0.049 0.000 –0.191 –0.042 0.008 0.016 0.000 –0.037 –1.500 1858 0.155 0.055 0.050 0.000 –0.192 –0.043 0.008 0.017 0.000 –0.020 –0.725 1859 0.154 0.057 0.050 0.000 –0.194 –0.043 0.008 0.017 0.000 –0.007 –0.275 1860 0.154 0.058 0.051 0.000 –0.196 –0.043 0.008 0.017 0.000 0.029 –0.125 1861 0.153 0.060 0.052 0.000 –0.198 –0.044 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.036 –0.075 1862 0.153 0.061 0.053 0.000 –0.199 –0.044 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.013 –0.350 1863 0.154 0.062 0.054 0.000 –0.201 –0.044 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.006 –0.250 1864 0.156 0.063 0.055 0.000 –0.203 –0.045 0.008 0.018 0.000 –0.017 –0.125 1865 0.158 0.064 0.056 0.000 –0.205 –0.045 0.009 0.019 0.000 –0.018 –0.050 1866 0.162 0.066 0.057 0.000 –0.206 –0.045 0.009 0.019 0.000 –0.021 –0.025 1867 0.167 0.067 0.058 0.000 –0.208 –0.046 0.009 0.019 0.000 –0.037 0.000 1868 0.173 0.068 0.059 0.000 –0.210 –0.046 0.009 0.020 0.000 –0.039 0.000 1869 0.180 0.070 0.059 0.000 –0.212 –0.046 0.009 0.020 0.000 –0.005 –0.025 1870 0.188 0.071 0.060 0.000 –0.213 –0.047 0.009 0.020 0.000 –0.028 –0.025 1871 0.195 0.073 0.061 0.000 –0.215 –0.047 0.009 0.020 0.000 0.025 –0.025 1872 0.202 0.075 0.062 0.000 –0.217 –0.047 0.009 0.021 0.000 0.012 –0.025 1873 0.208 0.077 0.063 0.000 –0.219 –0.048 0.010 0.021 0.000 0.015 –0.075 1874 0.212 0.079 0.064 0.000 –0.220 –0.048 0.010 0.021 0.000 0.000 –0.050 1875 0.215 0.081 0.065 0.000 –0.222 –0.049 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.015 –0.025 1876 0.218 0.083 0.066 0.000 –0.224 –0.049 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.029 –0.150 1877 0.219 0.084 0.067 0.000 –0.226 –0.049 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.033 –0.125 1878 0.219 0.086 0.067 0.000 –0.227 –0.050 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.041 –0.075 1879 0.221 0.088 0.068 0.000 –0.229 –0.050 0.010 0.023 0.000 –0.044 –0.050 1880 0.222 0.089 0.069 0.000 –0.231 –0.050 0.011 0.023 0.000 –0.039 –0.025 1881 0.224 0.091 0.070 0.000 –0.233 –0.051 0.011 0.023 0.000 –0.007 –0.025 1882 0.228 0.092 0.071 0.000 –0.234 –0.051 0.011 0.024 0.000 –0.019 –0.025 1883 0.232 0.094 0.072 0.000 –0.236 –0.052 0.011 0.024 0.000 –0.031 –1.175 1884 0.238 0.096 0.073 0.000 –0.238 –0.052 0.011 0.024 0.000 0.018 –3.575 1885 0.244 0.098 0.074 0.000 –0.240 –0.053 0.011 0.024 0.000 0.002 –1.575 1886 0.250 0.100 0.075 0.000 –0.241 –0.053 0.011 0.025 0.000 –0.014 –0.900 1887 0.258 0.102 0.075 0.000 –0.243 –0.053 0.012 0.025 0.000 –0.033 –0.925 1888 0.266 0.104 0.076 0.000 –0.245 –0.054 0.012 0.025 0.000 –0.037 –0.550 1889 0.274 0.106 0.077 0.000 –0.247 –0.054 0.012 0.026 0.000 –0.041 –0.725 1890 0.283 0.107 0.078 0.000 –0.248 –0.055 0.012 0.026 0.000 –0.041 –0.975 1891 0.293 0.108 0.079 0.000 –0.250 –0.055 0.012 0.026 0.000 –0.020 –0.750 1892 0.302 0.109 0.080 0.000 –0.252 –0.056 0.012 0.026 0.000 0.004 –0.550 1893 0.311 0.110 0.081 0.000 –0.254 –0.056 0.013 0.027 0.000 0.035 –0.225 1894 0.319 0.111 0.082 0.000 –0.255 –0.057 0.013 0.027 0.000 0.072 –0.100 1895 0.325 0.111 0.083 0.000 –0.257 –0.057 0.013 0.027 0.000 0.052 –0.025 1896 0.330 0.112 0.083 0.000 –0.259 –0.058 0.013 0.028 0.000 0.023 –0.450 1897 0.334 0.113 0.084 0.000 –0.261 –0.058 0.013 0.028 0.000 –0.003 –0.425 1898 0.336 0.114 0.085 0.000 –0.262 –0.059 0.014 0.028 0.000 –0.012 –0.300

### 1407 Table AII.1.2 | (continued)



### Year CO2 

### GHG Other* O3 

### (Trop) O3 

### (Strat) Aerosol (Total) LUC H 2

### O (Strat) BC Snow Con– trails Solar Volcano

1899 0.337 0.115 0.086 0.000 –0.264 –0.059 0.014 0.028 0.000 –0.017 –0.125 1900 0.339 0.117 0.087 0.000 –0.266 –0.060 0.014 0.029 0.000 –0.028 –0.050 1901 0.341 0.120 0.088 0.000 –0.268 –0.061 0.014 0.029 0.000 –0.043 –0.025 1902 0.344 0.123 0.089 0.000 –0.270 –0.061 0.015 0.030 0.000 –0.048 –0.500 1903 0.349 0.127 0.090 0.000 –0.272 –0.062 0.015 0.030 0.000 –0.036 –1.800 1904 0.355 0.130 0.091 0.000 –0.274 –0.062 0.015 0.031 0.000 0.011 –0.800 1905 0.362 0.134 0.092 0.000 –0.276 –0.063 0.016 0.032 0.000 –0.016 –0.325 1906 0.369 0.138 0.092 0.000 –0.278 –0.063 0.016 0.032 0.000 0.028 –0.175 1907 0.376 0.141 0.093 0.000 –0.280 –0.064 0.016 0.033 0.000 –0.001 –0.225 1908 0.383 0.145 0.094 0.000 –0.282 –0.064 0.017 0.033 0.000 0.020 –0.250 1909 0.389 0.148 0.095 –0.001 –0.284 –0.065 0.017 0.034 0.000 –0.002 –0.100 1910 0.395 0.151 0.096 –0.001 –0.286 –0.065 0.017 0.035 0.000 –0.006 –0.075 1911 0.400 0.155 0.097 –0.001 –0.288 –0.066 0.018 0.035 0.000 –0.032 –0.050 1912 0.406 0.159 0.098 –0.001 –0.289 –0.066 0.018 0.035 0.000 –0.045 –0.475 1913 0.412 0.163 0.100 –0.001 –0.290 –0.067 0.019 0.035 0.000 –0.042 –0.600 1914 0.419 0.167 0.101 –0.001 –0.291 –0.068 0.019 0.035 0.000 –0.033 –0.250 1915 0.427 0.171 0.102 –0.001 –0.292 –0.068 0.019 0.035 0.000 0.013 –0.100 1916 0.436 0.175 0.103 –0.001 –0.293 –0.069 0.020 0.035 0.000 0.068 –0.075 1917 0.445 0.180 0.104 –0.001 –0.294 –0.069 0.020 0.035 0.000 0.086 –0.050 1918 0.453 0.185 0.105 –0.001 –0.296 –0.070 0.021 0.035 0.000 0.121 –0.050 1919 0.460 0.189 0.107 –0.002 –0.297 –0.071 0.021 0.035 0.000 0.073 –0.050 1920 0.466 0.193 0.108 –0.001 –0.298 –0.071 0.022 0.035 0.000 0.039 –0.225 1921 0.472 0.196 0.109 –0.001 –0.302 –0.072 0.022 0.036 0.000 0.012 –0.200 1922 0.476 0.199 0.110 –0.002 –0.305 –0.073 0.022 0.036 0.000 –0.013 –0.075 1923 0.481 0.201 0.111 –0.002 –0.309 –0.073 0.023 0.036 0.000 –0.025 –0.025 1924 0.486 0.203 0.113 –0.002 –0.313 –0.074 0.023 0.036 0.000 –0.029 –0.075 1925 0.491 0.205 0.114 –0.002 –0.317 –0.075 0.024 0.036 0.000 –0.015 –0.075 1926 0.497 0.207 0.115 –0.002 –0.321 –0.076 0.024 0.036 0.000 0.020 –0.050 1927 0.503 0.210 0.116 –0.002 –0.325 –0.076 0.025 0.036 0.000 0.063 –0.050 1928 0.510 0.214 0.117 –0.002 –0.328 –0.077 0.025 0.037 0.000 0.033 –0.125 1929 0.517 0.218 0.119 –0.002 –0.332 –0.078 0.025 0.037 0.000 0.028 –0.250 1930 0.523 0.222 0.120 –0.003 –0.336 –0.079 0.026 0.037 0.000 0.048 –0.150 1931 0.530 0.226 0.122 –0.003 –0.338 –0.080 0.026 0.037 0.000 0.009 –0.125 1932 0.536 0.230 0.124 –0.003 –0.340 –0.081 0.027 0.038 0.000 –0.016 –0.200 1933 0.542 0.234 0.126 –0.003 –0.341 –0.081 0.027 0.038 0.000 –0.029 –0.175 1934 0.548 0.237 0.128 –0.003 –0.343 –0.082 0.027 0.039 0.000 –0.027 –0.100 1935 0.555 0.241 0.130 –0.003 –0.345 –0.083 0.028 0.039 0.000 –0.008 –0.100 1936 0.563 0.244 0.133 –0.003 –0.347 –0.084 0.028 0.040 0.000 0.068 –0.075 1937 0.570 0.247 0.135 –0.003 –0.349 –0.085 0.029 0.040 0.000 0.089 –0.075 1938 0.577 0.251 0.137 –0.003 –0.350 –0.086 0.029 0.040 0.000 0.080 –0.125 1939 0.584 0.254 0.139 –0.004 –0.352 –0.087 0.029 0.041 0.000 0.094 –0.100 1940 0.590 0.257 0.141 –0.004 –0.354 –0.088 0.030 0.041 0.000 0.070 –0.075 1941 0.595 0.261 0.143 –0.004 –0.358 –0.089 0.030 0.042 0.000 0.057 –0.050 1942 0.598 0.264 0.146 –0.004 –0.362 –0.090 0.030 0.042 0.000 0.030 –0.100 1943 0.599 0.267 0.148 –0.004 –0.366 –0.092 0.031 0.043 0.000 –0.005 –0.100 1944 0.599 0.270 0.150 –0.004 –0.370 –0.093 0.031 0.043 0.001 –0.011 –0.050 1945 0.599 0.273 0.152 –0.004 –0.374 –0.094 0.032 0.043 0.001 0.019 –0.050 1946 0.599 0.276 0.154 –0.005 –0.378 –0.095 0.032 0.044 0.001 0.025 –0.050 1947 0.598 0.279 0.156 –0.005 –0.382 –0.096 0.032 0.044 0.002 0.093 –0.050 1948 0.598 0.283 0.158 –0.005 –0.386 –0.097 0.033 0.045 0.002 0.146 –0.050

### 1408 Table AII.1.2 | (continued)



### Year CO2 

### GHG Other* O3 

### (Trop) O3 

### (Strat) Aerosol (Total) LUC H 2

### O (Strat) BC Snow Con– trails Solar Volcano

1949 0.601 0.287 0.161 –0.005 –0.390 –0.099 0.033 0.045 0.002 0.123 –0.075 1950 0.604 0.291 0.163 –0.005 –0.394 –0.100 0.034 0.046 0.002 0.110 –0.075 1951 0.608 0.296 0.168 –0.005 –0.409 –0.102 0.034 0.046 0.002 0.037 –0.050 1952 0.615 0.302 0.173 –0.006 –0.424 –0.103 0.035 0.047 0.002 0.045 –0.100 1953 0.623 0.308 0.178 –0.006 –0.439 –0.105 0.036 0.047 0.003 0.025 –0.075 1954 0.631 0.315 0.183 –0.006 –0.455 –0.106 0.036 0.048 0.003 0.003 –0.100 1955 0.641 0.323 0.188 –0.006 –0.470 –0.108 0.037 0.048 0.003 0.015 –0.050 1956 0.651 0.332 0.193 –0.007 –0.485 –0.109 0.038 0.049 0.003 0.064 –0.025 1957 0.662 0.341 0.198 –0.007 –0.500 –0.111 0.038 0.050 0.004 0.129 –0.025 1958 0.673 0.349 0.203 –0.007 –0.515 –0.112 0.039 0.050 0.004 0.194 0.000 1959 0.685 0.358 0.208 –0.008 –0.530 –0.114 0.040 0.051 0.004 0.159 0.000 1960 0.698 0.366 0.213 –0.008 –0.546 –0.116 0.041 0.051 0.004 0.151 –0.125 1961 0.709 0.374 0.218 –0.008 –0.563 –0.117 0.041 0.051 0.004 0.110 –0.275 1962 0.719 0.383 0.223 –0.009 –0.580 –0.119 0.042 0.051 0.004 0.051 –0.325 1963 0.727 0.392 0.228 –0.009 –0.598 –0.120 0.043 0.050 0.005 0.038 –1.150 1964 0.735 0.402 0.233 –0.010 –0.615 –0.122 0.044 0.050 0.005 0.019 –1.800 1965 0.748 0.412 0.239 –0.011 –0.632 –0.123 0.045 0.050 0.005 0.008 –1.075 1966 0.762 0.424 0.244 –0.011 –0.650 –0.125 0.046 0.050 0.006 0.012 –0.575 1967 0.778 0.437 0.249 –0.012 –0.667 –0.126 0.047 0.049 0.007 0.055 –0.375 1968 0.794 0.451 0.254 –0.013 –0.684 –0.127 0.048 0.049 0.008 0.086 –0.675 1969 0.811 0.466 0.259 –0.014 –0.701 –0.129 0.049 0.049 0.009 0.077 –0.850 1970 0.828 0.483 0.264 –0.014 –0.719 –0.130 0.050 0.049 0.009 0.092 –0.425 1971 0.846 0.500 0.270 –0.016 –0.722 –0.131 0.050 0.049 0.009 0.082 –0.150 1972 0.865 0.519 0.277 –0.017 –0.725 –0.132 0.051 0.049 0.009 0.076 –0.100 1973 0.885 0.538 0.284 –0.018 –0.728 –0.134 0.052 0.049 0.010 0.044 –0.200 1974 0.904 0.558 0.290 –0.019 –0.732 –0.135 0.053 0.050 0.010 0.023 –0.325 1975 0.920 0.578 0.297 –0.021 –0.735 –0.136 0.054 0.050 0.010 0.006 –0.750 1976 0.938 0.598 0.304 –0.022 –0.738 –0.137 0.055 0.050 0.010 –0.003 –0.350 1977 0.960 0.617 0.310 –0.024 –0.741 –0.138 0.056 0.050 0.011 0.040 –0.125 1978 0.987 0.636 0.317 –0.026 –0.745 –0.138 0.057 0.051 0.011 0.129 –0.200 1979 1.018 0.656 0.324 –0.027 –0.748 –0.139 0.058 0.051 0.012 0.167 –0.225 1980 1.046 0.675 0.330 –0.029 –0.751 –0.140 0.059 0.051 0.012 0.150 –0.125 1981 1.066 0.696 0.335 –0.031 –0.763 –0.141 0.061 0.051 0.012 0.147 –0.125 1982 1.085 0.717 0.339 –0.033 –0.775 –0.141 0.062 0.050 0.012 0.094 –1.325 1983 1.110 0.737 0.343 –0.035 –0.788 –0.142 0.063 0.050 0.012 0.091 –1.875 1984 1.136 0.757 0.348 –0.037 –0.800 –0.143 0.064 0.049 0.013 0.016 –0.750 1985 1.158 0.776 0.352 –0.038 –0.812 –0.143 0.065 0.049 0.014 0.011 –0.325 1986 1.180 0.795 0.356 –0.040 –0.824 –0.144 0.065 0.049 0.015 0.012 –0.350 1987 1.208 0.813 0.360 –0.042 –0.836 –0.144 0.066 0.048 0.016 0.015 –0.250 1988 1.240 0.832 0.365 –0.044 –0.848 –0.145 0.067 0.048 0.017 0.095 –0.200 1989 1.266 0.853 0.369 –0.046 –0.861 –0.145 0.067 0.047 0.018 0.151 –0.150 1990 1.287 0.872 0.373 –0.048 –0.873 –0.146 0.068 0.047 0.019 0.118 –0.150 1991 1.305 0.888 0.375 –0.050 –0.878 –0.146 0.068 0.046 0.019 0.126 –1.350 1992 1.318 0.900 0.376 –0.052 –0.883 –0.146 0.069 0.045 0.020 0.137 –3.025 1993 1.332 0.909 0.378 –0.054 –0.888 –0.147 0.069 0.045 0.022 0.063 –1.225 1994 1.354 0.916 0.379 –0.055 –0.893 –0.147 0.069 0.044 0.024 0.027 –0.500 1995 1.381 0.923 0.380 –0.056 –0.897 –0.147 0.070 0.043 0.025 0.020 –0.250 1996 1.404 0.930 0.382 –0.057 –0.902 –0.148 0.070 0.043 0.027 0.003 –0.175 1997 1.428 0.937 0.383 –0.057 –0.907 –0.148 0.070 0.042 0.028 0.016 –0.125 1998 1.459 0.944 0.385 –0.057 –0.912 –0.148 0.071 0.041 0.029 0.062 –0.075

### 1409 Table AII.1.2 | (continued)



### Year CO2 

### GHG Other* O3 

### (Trop) O3 

### (Strat) Aerosol (Total) LUC H 2

### O (Strat) BC Snow Con– trails Solar Volcano

1999 1.489 0.952 0.386 –0.056 –0.917 –0.148 0.071 0.041 0.031 0.104 –0.050 2000 1.510 0.957 0.388 –0.056 –0.922 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.033 0.127 –0.050 2001 1.532 0.961 0.389 –0.055 –0.920 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.033 0.114 –0.050 2002 1.563 0.965 0.390 –0.055 –0.918 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.033 0.108 –0.050 2003 1.594 0.969 0.391 –0.054 –0.916 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.034 0.042 –0.075 2004 1.624 0.973 0.393 –0.053 –0.913 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.038 0.012 –0.050 2005 1.654 0.976 0.394 –0.053 –0.911 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.040 –0.011 –0.075 2006 1.684 0.981 0.395 –0.052 –0.909 –0.150 0.071 0.040 0.042 –0.016 –0.100 2007 1.711 0.986 0.396 –0.052 –0.907 –0.150 0.071 0.040 0.044 –0.017 –0.100 2008 1.736 0.992 0.398 –0.051 –0.904 –0.150 0.072 0.040 0.046 –0.025 –0.100 2009 1.762 0.999 0.399 –0.051 –0.902 –0.150 0.072 0.040 0.044 –0.027 –0.125 2010 1.789 1.005 0.400 –0.050 –0.900 –0.150 0.072 0.040 0.048 0.001 –0.100 2011 1.816 1.015 0.400 –0.050 –0.900 –0.150 0.073 0.040 0.050 0.030 –0.125 Notes: See Figure 8.18, also Sections 8.1 and 11.3.6.1. To get the total ERF (effective radiative forcing) all components can be summed. Small negative values for CO2prior to 1800 are due to uncertainty in PI values. GHG other* includes only WMGHG. Aerosol is the sum of direct and indirect effects. LUC includes land use land cover change. Contrails combines aviation contrails (~20% of total) and contrail-induced cirrus. Values are annual average.



### Table AII.1.3 | Historical global decadal mean global surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1961–1990 average



### Year HadCRUT4 GISS NCDC Lower (5%) Median (50%) Upper (95%) Median (50%) Median (50%) 1850d –0.404 –0.320 –0.243 1860d –0.413 –0.335 –0.263 1870d –0.326 –0.258 –0.195 1880d –0.363 –0.297 –0.237 –0.296 –0.291 1890d –0.430 –0.359 –0.299 –0.361 –0.370 1900d –0.473 –0.410 –0.353 –0.418 –0.434 1910d –0.448 –0.387 –0.334 –0.435 –0.430 1920d –0.297 –0.242 –0.193 –0.311 –0.311 1930d –0.166 –0.116 –0.070 –0.172 –0.161 1940d –0.047 –0.002 +0.042 –0.085 –0.063 1950d –0.106 –0.061 –0.017 –0.134 –0.136 1960d –0.093 –0.054 –0.014 –0.104 –0.086 1970d –0.113 –0.077 –0.041 –0.058 –0.060 1980d +0.052 +0.095 +0.135 +0.118 +0.109 1990d +0.221 +0.270 +0.318 +0.275 +0.272 2000d +0.400 +0.453 +0.508 +0.472 +0.450 1986–2005 minus 1850–1900 +0.61 ± 0.06 N/A N/A

1986–2005 minus 1886–1905 +0.66 ± 0.06 +0.66 +0.66

1986–2005 minus 1961–1990 +0.30 ± 0.03 +0.31 +0.30

1986–2005 minus 1980–1999 +0.11 ± 0.02 +0.11 +0.11

1946–2012 minus 1880–1945 +0.38 ± 0.04 +0.40 +0.39

Notes: Decadal average (1990d= 1990–1999) median global surface air temperatures from HadCRUT4, GISS and NCDC analyses. See Chapter 2, Sections 2.4.3 and 2.SM.4.3.3, Table 2.7, Figures 2.19, 2.20, 2.21 and 2.22, and also Figure 11.24a. Confidence intervals (5 to 95% for HadCRUT4 only) take into account measurement, sampling, bias and coverage uncertainties. Also shown are temperature increases between the CMIP5 reference period (1986–2005) and four earlier averaging periods, where 1850–1900 is the early instrumental temperature record. Uncertainties in these temperature differences are 5 to 95% confidence intervals.

### 1410 

## AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions See discussion of Figure 8.2 and Section 11.3.5. Table AII.2.1a | Anthropogenic CO 2

### emissions from fossil fuels and other industrial sources (FF) (PgC yr–1

### )



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 2000d 6.82 6.82 6.82 6.82 6.90 6.90 7.10 6.92 ± 0.80 6.98 ± 0.81 6.76 ± 0.71 6.98 ± 0.81 2010d 8.61 8.54 8.39 8.90 8.46 8.50 8.68 8.38 ± 1.03 8.63 ± 1.07 7.66 ± 1.64 8.27 ± 1.68 2020d 9.00 9.79 8.99 11.38 11.01 10.00 10.26 8.46 ± 1.38 10.24±1.69 8.33 ± 1.82 10.30 ± 1.87 2030d 7.21 10.83 9.99 13.79 13.53 11.20 11.62 6.81 ± 1.49 10.93±1.83 9.20 ± 1.55 12.36 ± 2.25 2040d 4.79 11.25 11.47 16.69 15.01 12.20 12.66 4.61 ± 1.60 11.82±1.84 10.04 ± 1.42 15.09 ± 2.15 2050d 3.21 10.91 13.00 20.03 16.49 11.70 13.70 2.96 ± 1.80 11.37±1.84 11.14 ± 1.55 18.15 ± 2.56 2060d 1.55 9.42 14.73 23.32 18.49 10.20 14.68 1.77 ± 1.06 9.96 ± 2.17 13.22 ± 2.05 21.49 ± 2.42 2070d 0.26 7.17 16.33 25.75 20.49 8.60 15.66 0.75 ± 0.90 7.86 ± 1.94 14.57 ± 1.88 23.62 ± 2.43 2080d –0.39 4.62 16.87 27.28 22.97 7.30 17.00 –0.09 ± 0.99 5.17 ± 1.77 15.51 ± 2.29 24.47 ± 2.70 2090d –0.81 4.19 14.70 28.24 25.94 6.10 18.70 –0.30 ± 1.09 5.13 ± 1.53 14.24 ± 1.81 25.30 ± 2.86 2100d –0.92 4.09 13.63 28.68 28.91 5.20 20.40 –0.63 ± 1.17 4.64 ± 1.34 12.78 ± 1.35 25.28 ± 2.73 Notes: Decadal mean values (2010d= average of 2005–2014) are used for emissions because linear interpolation between decadal means conserves total emissions. Data are taken from RCP database (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb) and may be different from yearly snapshots; for 2100 the average (2095–2100) is used. SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a are taken from TAR Appendix II. RCPn.n &values are inferred from ESMs used in CMIP5. The model mean and standard deviation is shown. ESM fossil emissions are taken from 14 models as described in Jones et al. (2013) although not every model has performed every scenario. See Chapter 6, Sections 6.4.3, and 6.4.3.3, and Figure 6.25. 

### Table AII.2.1b | Anthropogenic CO 2

### emissions from agriculture, forestry, land use (AFOLU) (PgC yr–1

### )



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 SRES-A2 SRES-B1 IS92a 2000d 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.07 1.07 1.30 2010d 1.09 0.94 0.93 1.08 1.12 0.78 1.22 2020d 0.97 0.41 0.38 0.91 1.25 0.63 1.14 2030d 0.79 0.23 –0.43 0.74 1.19 –0.09 1.04 2040d 0.51 0.21 –0.67 0.65 1.06 –0.48 0.92 2050d 0.29 0.23 –0.48 0.58 0.93 –0.41 0.80 2060d 0.55 0.19 –0.27 0.50 0.67 –0.46 0.54 2070d 0.55 0.11 –0.04 0.42 0.40 –0.42 0.28 2080d 0.55 0.02 0.20 0.31 0.25 –0.60 0.12 2090d 0.59 0.03 0.24 0.20 0.21 –0.78 0.06 2100d 0.50 0.04 0.18 0.09 0.18 –0.97 –0.10 Notes: See Table AII.2.1a.

Notes: See Table AII.2.1a. 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000d 8.03 8.03 8.03 8.03 2010d 9.70 9.48 9.32 9.98 2020d 9.97 10.20 9.37 12.28 2030d 8.00 11.06 9.57 14.53 2040d 5.30 11.46 10.80 17.33 2050d 3.50 11.15 12.52 20.61 2060d 2.10 9.60 14.46 23.83 2070d 0.81 7.27 16.29 26.17 2080d 0.16 4.65 17.07 27.60 2090d –0.23 4.22 14.94 28.44 2100d –0.42 4.13 13.82 28.77 

### Table AII.2.1c | Anthropogenic total CO 2

### emissions (PgC yr–1

### )

### 1411 Table AII.2.2 | Anthropogenic CH 4emissions (Tg yr–1) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5&

PI 202 ± 28 202 ± 28 202 ± 28 202 ± 28 2010total 554 ± 56 554 ± 56 554 ± 56 554 ± 56 2010anthrop 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45

2010d 322 322 321 345 370 349 433 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 2020d 267 334 315 415 424 377 477 268 ± 34 366 ± 47 338 ± 43 424 ± 54 2030d 238 338 326 484 486 385 529 246 ± 31 370 ± 47 354 ± 45 490 ± 63 2040d 223 337 343 573 542 381 580 235 ± 30 368 ± 47 373 ± 47 585 ± 75 2050d 192 331 354 669 598 359 630 198 ± 25 361 ± 46 385 ± 49 685 ± 88 2060d 169 318 362 738 654 342 654 174 ± 22 346 ± 44 395 ± 50 754 ± 96 2070d 161 301 359 779 711 324 678 169 ± 22 328 ± 42 390 ± 50 790 ±101 2080d 155 283 336 820 770 293 704 162 ± 21 306 ± 39 369 ± 47 832 ±106 2090d 149 274 278 865 829 266 733 155 ± 20 298 ± 38 293 ± 37 882 ±113 2100d 143 267 250 885 889 236 762 148 ± 19 290 ± 37 267 ± 34 899 ±115

Notes: For all anthropogenic emissions see Box 1.1 (Figure 4), Section 8.2.2, Figure 8.2, Sections 11.3.5.1.1 to 3, 11.3.5.2, 11.3.6.1. Ten-year average values (2010d= average of 2005–2014; but 2100d = average of 2095–2100) are given for RCP-based emissions, but single-year emissions are shown for other scenarios. RCPn.n = harmonized anthropogenic emissions as reported. SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a are from TAR Appendix II. AR5 RCPn.n &emissions have ± 1-s (16 to 84% confidence) uncertainties and are based on the methodology of Prather et al. (2012) updated with CMIP5 results (Holmes et al., 2013; Voulgarakis et al., 2013). Projections of CH 4lifetimes are harmonized based on PI (1750) and PD (2010) budgets that include uncertainties in lifetimes and abundances. All projected RCP abundances for CH 4and N 2O (Tables AII.4.2 to AII.4.3) rescale each of the RCP emissions by a fixed factor equal to the ratio of RCP to AR5 anthropogenic emissions at year 2010 to ensure harmonization between total emissions, lifetimes and observed abundances. Natural emissions are kept constant but included as additional uncertainty. Independent emission estimates are shown as follows: MFR/CLE are the maximum feasible reduction and current legislation scenarios from Dentener et al. (2005; 2006), while MFR*/CLE* are the similarly labeled scenarios from Cofala et al. (2007). REF L/REFUare lower/upper bounds from the reference scenario of van Vuuren et al. (2008), while POLL/POLUare the lower/upper bounds from their policy scenario. AME L/AME U are lower/upper bounds from Calvin et al. (2012). Rog L/Rog Uare lower/upper bounds from Rogelj et et. (2011).



### Year MFR CLE MFR* CLE* Rog L 

### Rog U 

### AME L 

### AME U 2000d 366 366 303 303 2010d 193 335 332 333 2020d 208 383 240 390 294 350 2030d 339 478 229 443 217 428 293 376 2040d 295 404 2050d 178 454 291 426 2060d 275 434 2070d 254 436 2080d 201 430 2090d 183 417 2100d 121 385 167 406

### 1412 Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5&

PI 9.1 ± 1.0 9.1 ± 1.0 9.1 ± 1.0 9.1 ± 1.0 2010total 15.7 ± 1.1 15.7 ± 1.1 15.7 ± 1.1 15.7 ± 1.1 2010anthrop 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3

2010d 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.25 8.1 7.5 6.2 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 2020d 7.4 8.2 8.1 9.5 9.6 8.1 7.1 6.1 ± 1.2 6.8 ± 1.3 6.3 ± 1.2 7.7 ± 1.5 2030d 7.3 8.5 8.8 10.7 10.7 8.2 7.7 6.1 ± 1.2 7.1 ± 1.4 7.0 ± 1.4 8.6 ± 1.7 2040d 7.1 8.7 9.7 11.9 11.3 8.3 8.0 6.0 ± 1.2 7.2 ± 1.4 7.8 ± 1.5 9.6 ± 1.9 2050d 6.3 8.6 10.5 12.7 12.0 8.3 8.3 5.2 ± 1.0 7.1 ± 1.4 8.4 ± 1.6 10.3 ± 2.0 2060d 5.8 8.5 11.3 13.4 12.9 7.7 8.3 4.8 ± 0.9 7.1 ± 1.4 9.1 ± 1.8 10.8 ± 2.1 2070d 5.7 8.4 12.0 13.9 13.9 7.4 8.4 4.8 ± 0.9 7.0 ± 1.3 9.6 ± 1.9 11.2 ± 2.2 2080d 5.6 8.2 12.3 14.5 14.8 7.0 8.5 4.7 ± 0.9 6.8 ± 1.3 9.9 ± 1.9 11.7 ± 2.3 2090d 5.5 8.1 12.4 15.2 15.7 6.4 8.6 4.6 ± 0.9 6.8 ± 1.3 9.9 ± 1.9 12.3 ± 2.4 2100d 5.3 8.1 12.2 15.7 16.5 5.7 8.7 4.4 ± 0.9 6.7 ± 1.3 9.8 ± 1.9 12.6 ± 2.4 Notes: See Table AII.2.2. 

### Table AII.2.3 | Anthropogenic N 2

### O emissions (TgN yr–1

### )



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000d 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 6.20 6.20 2010d 6.14 5.68 7.43 6.93 7.60 5.60 2020d 2.87 3.02 9.19 8.12 9.70 5.70 2030d 1.96 2.89 9.58 9.83 11.60 7.20 2040d 1.53 3.32 9.68 11.14 13.70 8.90 2050d 0.76 3.77 9.78 12.07 16.00 10.40 2060d 0.51 4.28 9.92 13.69 18.80 10.90 2070d 0.42 4.87 10.05 13.72 19.80 9.50 2080d 0.32 5.53 10.00 14.79 20.70 7.10 2090d 0.19 5.99 9.86 15.96 23.40 6.50 2100d 0.07 6.25 9.37 16.79 25.20 6.50 

### Table AII.2.4 | Anthropogenic SF6

### emissions (Gg yr–1

### )

Notes: For this and all following emissions tables, see Table AII.2.2. RCPn.n = harmonized anthropogenic emissions as reported by RCPs (Lamarque et al., 2010; 2011; Meinshausen et al., 2011a). SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a from TAR Appendix II.



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000d 11.62 11.62 11.62 11.62 12.60 12.60 2010d 13.65 10.69 19.10 11.04 20.30 14.50 2020d 12.07 8.77 22.84 11.67 25.20 15.70 2030d 7.36 8.47 23.46 12.29 31.40 16.60 2040d 5.06 8.68 23.77 12.22 37.90 18.50 2050d 2.95 9.04 23.73 12.37 45.60 20.90 2060d 2.24 8.95 23.70 11.89 56.00 23.10 2070d 2.07 9.04 23.45 11.81 63.60 22.50 2080d 1.52 9.51 22.91 11.58 73.20 21.30 2090d 1.22 10.50 21.98 11.14 82.80 22.50 2100d 1.11 11.05 20.56 10.81 88.20 22.20 

### Table AII.2.5 | Anthropogenic CF4

### emissions (Gg yr–1

### )

### 1413 Table AII.2.6 | Anthropogenic C 2

### F6

### emissions (Gg yr–1

### ) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000d 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.43 1.30 1.30 2010d 4.29 2.34 2.62 2.50 2.00 1.50 2020d 4.98 1.76 2.66 2.61 2.50 1.60 2030d 2.33 1.80 2.69 2.75 3.10 1.70 2040d 1.15 1.94 2.63 2.74 3.80 1.80 2050d 0.55 2.03 2.56 2.79 4.60 2.10 2060d 0.34 2.03 2.49 2.71 5.60 2.30 2070d 0.26 1.99 2.50 2.74 6.40 2.20 2080d 0.16 1.93 2.36 2.74 7.30 2.10 2090d 0.10 1.97 2.26 2.68 8.30 2.20 2100d 0.09 2.01 2.09 2.63 8.80 2.20



### Table AII.2.7 | Anthropogenic C 6

### F 14

### emissions (Gg yr–1

### ) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000d 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.213 2010d 0.430 0.430 0.429 0.430 2020d 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.220 2030d 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 2040d 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 2050d 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 2060d 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 2070d 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 2080d 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 2090d 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 2100d 0.090 0.088 0.088 0.090



### Table AII.2.8 | Anthropogenic HFC-23 emissions (Gg yr–1

### ) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000d 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 13.0 13.0 2010d 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 15.0 15.0 2020d 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 5.0 5.0 2030d 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.0 2.0 2040d 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.0 2.0 2050d 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0 2060d 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 2070d 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 2080d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2090d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2100d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0

### 1414 Table AII.2.10 | Anthropogenic HFC-125 emissions (Gg yr–1

### )

Table AII.2.11 | Anthropogenic HFC-134a emissions (Gg yr–1

### ) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000d 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 2010d 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 4.0 3.0 2020d 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 6.0 6.0 2030d 71.2 71.2 71.2 71.2 9.0 8.0 2040d 78.8 78.8 78.8 78.8 11.0 10.0 2050d 76.5 76.5 76.5 76.5 14.0 14.0 2060d 83.6 83.6 83.6 83.6 17.0 14.0 2070d 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 20.0 14.0 2080d 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.4 24.0 14.0 2090d 91.0 91.0 91.0 91.0 29.0 14.0 2100d 82.7 82.7 82.7 82.7 33.0 13.0 

### Table AII.2.9 | Anthropogenic HFC-32 emissions (Gg yr–1

### )



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a 2000d 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 2010d 29 18 10 32 11 11 1 2020d 82 29 9 63 21 21 9 2030d 108 32 9 79 29 29 46 2040d 122 31 10 99 35 36 111 2050d 122 30 10 115 46 48 175 2060d 138 27 11 128 56 48 185 2070d 157 24 11 139 66 48 194 2080d 165 24 12 144 79 48 199 2090d 161 23 12 147 94 46 199 2100d 150 23 12 148 106 44 199



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a 2000d 72 72 72 72 80 80 148 2010d 146 140 139 153 166 163 290 2020d 173 184 153 255 252 249 396 2030d 193 208 159 331 330 326 557 2040d 209 229 163 402 405 414 738 2050d 203 248 167 461 506 547 918 2060d 225 246 172 506 633 550 969 2070d 252 260 175 553 758 544 1020 2080d 263 299 177 602 915 533 1047 2090d 256 351 175 651 1107 513 1051 2100d 239 400 171 696 1260 486 1055

### 1415 Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000d 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 0.0 0.0 2010d 23.1 14.0 7.0 23.2 9.0 8.0 2020d 59.1 17.4 5.4 34.1 16.0 15.0 2030d 74.7 20.3 6.0 38.5 22.0 21.0 2040d 81.8 23.1 6.6 45.1 27.0 26.0 2050d 79.0 25.6 7.1 49.8 35.0 35.0 2060d 86.1 25.9 7.7 52.3 43.0 35.0 2070d 94.2 28.2 8.3 54.1 51.0 35.0 2080d 95.1 33.5 8.7 52.7 61.0 35.0 2090d 88.7 39.6 9.0 50.2 73.0 34.0 2100d 79.2 45.1 9.1 47.3 82.0 32.0 

### Table AII.2.12 | Anthropogenic HFC-143a emissions (Gg yr–1

### )



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000d 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 2010d 7.0 5.3 6.9 8.5 12.0 13.0 2020d 2.6 1.4 2.5 2.7 17.0 18.0 2030d 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.7 21.0 24.0 2040d 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.7 26.0 30.0 2050d 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 32.0 39.0 2060d 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 40.0 40.0 2070d 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 48.0 39.0 2080d 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 58.0 38.0 2090d 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 70.0 36.0 2100d 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 80.0 34.0 

### Table AII.2.13 | Anthropogenic HFC-227ea emissions (Gg yr–1

### )



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000d 11 11 11 11 0 0 2010d 42 46 53 74 59 60 2020d 32 86 65 143 79 80 2030d 7 95 67 186 98 102 2040d 0 97 68 181 121 131 2050d 0 95 69 163 149 173 2060d 0 87 70 150 190 173 2070d 0 82 71 138 228 170 2080d 0 80 70 129 276 166 2090d 0 81 68 123 334 159 2100d 0 83 65 130 388 150 

### Table AII.2.14 | Anthropogenic HFC-245fa emissions (Gg yr–1

### )

### 1416 Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000d 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 2010d 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.0 6.0 2020d 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 8.0 7.0 2030d 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 2040d 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.0 9.0 2050d 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.4 11.0 11.0 2060d 11.1 11.1 11.1 12.1 12.0 11.0 2070d 11.0 11.0 11.0 13.9 14.0 11.0 2080d 11.0 11.0 10.9 16.2 16.0 11.0 2090d 10.7 10.7 10.7 18.9 19.0 11.0 2100d 10.5 10.5 10.5 21.4 22.0 10.0 

### Table AII.2.15 | Anthropogenic HFC-43-10mee emissions (Gg yr–1

### )

Table AII.2.16 | Anthropogenic CO emissions (Tg yr–1

### ) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a 2000d 1071 1071 1071 1071 877 877 1048 2010d 1035 1041 1045 1054 977 789 1096 2020d 984 997 1028 1058 1075 751 1145 2030d 930 986 1030 1019 1259 603 1207 2040d 879 948 1046 960 1344 531 1282 2050d 825 875 1033 907 1428 471 1358 2060d 779 782 996 846 1545 459 1431 2070d 718 678 939 799 1662 456 1504 2080d 668 571 879 759 1842 426 1576 2090d 638 520 835 721 2084 399 1649 2100d 612 483 798 694 2326 363 1722



### Year MFR CLE REFL 

### REFU 

### POLL 

### POLU 2000d 977 977 708 1197 706 1197 2010d 771 1408 769 1408 2020d 755 1629 705 1611 2030d 729 904 707 1865 592 1803 2040d 695 2165 620 2002 2050d 591 2487 482 2218 2060d 504 2787 363 2409 2070d 450 3052 328 2558 2080d 438 3279 268 2635 2090d 410 3510 259 2714 2100d 363 3735 253 2796

### 1417 Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a CLE MFR 2000d 213 213 213 213 141 141 126 147 147 2010d 216 209 215 217 155 141 142 2020d 213 197 214 224 179 140 158 2030d 202 201 217 225 202 131 173 146 103 2040d 192 201 222 218 214 123 188 2050d 179 191 220 209 225 116 202 2060d 167 180 214 202 238 111 218 2070d 152 167 204 194 251 103 234 2080d 140 152 193 189 275 99 251 2090d 132 145 182 182 309 96 267 2100d 126 141 174 177 342 87 283 

### Table AII.2.17 | Anthropogenic NMVOC emissions (Tg yr–1

### )



### Year MFR CLE REFL 

### REFU 

### POLL 

### POLU 2000d 38.0 38.0 29.1 41.6 29.1 41.6 2010d 26.0 50.2 23.9 50.1 2020d 26.3 60.4 21.6 59.2 2030d 23.1 42.9 24.4 71.8 16.5 67.4 2040d 21.5 86.3 14.1 75.3 2050d 17.0 101.7 11.6 83.3 2060d 13.2 115.7 11.4 89.8 2070d 12.0 127.5 10.5 94.6 2080d 11.5 137.2 9.6 97.2 2090d 12.0 146.2 8.8 100.1 2100d 13.0 155.0 8.0 104.0 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 CLE MFR 2000d 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 53.4 53.4 2010d 43.5 42.4 43.1 43.5 2020d 47.5 43.5 43.3 48.1 2030d 50.8 45.2 46.2 52.1 69.8 69.8 2040d 53.2 46.3 49.8 55.6 2050d 55.5 46.4 53.0 58.4 2060d 58.4 46.0 56.5 60.6 2070d 61.2 45.2 59.5 62.4 2080d 63.3 44.3 60.9 63.8 2090d 65.2 43.9 62.1 65.3 2100d 67.0 43.6 61.8 66.9 

### Table AII.2.18 | Anthropogenic NOX

### emissions (TgN yr–1

### )

Notes: Odd nitrogen (NOx) emissions occur as NO or NO2, measured here as Tg of N.

### 1418 Table AII.2.19 | Anthropogenic NH 3

### emissions (TgN yr–1

### ) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 CLE MFR 2000d 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 53.4 53.4 2010d 43.5 42.4 43.1 43.5 2020d 47.5 43.5 43.3 48.1 2030d 50.8 45.2 46.2 52.1 69.8 69.8 2040d 53.2 46.3 49.8 55.6 2050d 55.5 46.4 53.0 58.4 2060d 58.4 46.0 56.5 60.6 2070d 61.2 45.2 59.5 62.4 2080d 63.3 44.3 60.9 63.8 2090d 65.2 43.9 62.1 65.3 2100d 67.0 43.6 61.8 66.9



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a 2000d 55.9 55.9 55.9 55.9 69.0 69.0 79.0 2010d 54.9 54.8 55.8 51.9 74.7 73.9 95.0 2020d 44.5 50.3 49.9 47.6 99.5 74.6 111.0 2030d 30.8 43.2 42.7 42.3 112.5 78.2 125.8 2040d 20.9 35.0 41.9 33.5 109.0 78.5 139.4 2050d 16.0 26.5 37.8 26.8 105.4 68.9 153.0 2060d 13.8 21.0 34.0 23.0 89.6 55.8 151.8 2070d 11.9 16.7 23.5 20.3 73.7 44.3 150.6 2080d 9.9 13.2 15.9 18.3 64.7 36.1 149.4 2090d 8.0 12.0 12.7 14.9 62.5 29.8 148.2 2100d 6.7 11.4 10.8 13.1 60.3 24.9 147.0



### Year MFR CLE REFL 

### REFU 

### POLL 

### POLU 2000d 55.6 55.6 50.6 76.4 50.6 76.4 2010d 53.1 81.8 52.7 78.7 2020d 56.9 84.8 47.7 77.8 2030d 17.9 58.8 60.1 86.7 29.8 76.3 2040d 52.5 82.9 19.0 72.0 2050d 44.2 72.3 12.4 61.7 2060d 32.8 73.9 9.5 52.9 2070d 30.5 77.7 7.8 49.8 2080d 29.6 81.1 6.2 50.5 2090d 22.8 84.5 5.1 52.5 2100d 18.0 88.0 4.0 54.0 

### Table AII.2.20 | Anthropogenic SOX

### emissions (TgS yr–1

### )

Notes: Anthropogenic sulphur emissions as SO2, measured here as Tg of S.

### 1419 Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a MFR* CLE* 2000d 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 81.4 81.4 81.4 35.0 35.0 2010d 36.6 34.6 36.2 35.6 89.3 74.5 85.2 29.2 34.6 2020d 36.6 30.8 36.1 34.5 97.0 71.5 89.0 28.6 32.6 2030d 35.3 29.2 36.0 33.2 111.4 59.9 93.9 27.9 30.9 2040d 32.3 28.0 36.4 31.6 118.1 54.2 99.8 2050d 30.3 26.8 36.5 30.1 124.7 49.5 105.8 2060d 29.6 25.0 35.7 28.5 133.9 48.6 111.5 2070d 28.2 22.8 34.4 27.4 143.1 48.3 117.2 2080d 27.0 20.7 33.4 26.4 157.2 46.0 122.9 2090d 26.4 19.9 32.7 25.1 176.2 43.8 128.6 2100d 25.5 19.5 32.2 24.1 195.2 41.0 134.4 

### Table AII.2.21 | Anthropogenic OC aerosols emissions (Tg yr–1

### )

Notes: For both MFR* and CLE* 23 Tg is added to Cofala et al. (2007) values to include biomass burning.



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a MFR* CLE* 2000d 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 12.40 12.40 12.40 7.91 7.91 2010d 8.49 8.13 8.13 8.06 13.60 11.30 13.00 6.31 8.01 2020d 8.27 7.84 7.77 7.66 14.80 10.90 13.60 5.81 7.41 2030d 7.03 7.36 7.53 7.04 17.00 9.10 14.30 5.41 7.01 2040d 5.80 6.81 7.39 6.22 18.00 8.30 15.20 2050d 5.00 6.21 7.07 5.67 19.00 7.50 16.10 2060d 4.46 5.56 6.48 5.22 20.40 7.40 17.00 2070d 3.99 4.88 5.75 4.88 21.80 7.40 17.90 2080d 3.70 4.23 5.15 4.66 24.00 7.00 18.70 2090d 3.55 4.01 4.70 4.43 26.80 6.70 19.60 2100d 3.39 3.88 4.41 4.27 29.70 6.20 20.50 

### Table AII.2.22 | Anthropogenic BC aerosols emissions (Tg yr–1

### )

Notes: For both MFR* and CLE* 2.6 Tg added to Cofala et al. (2007) values to include biomass burning.



### Year Historical SRES A1 + Biofuel SRES A2 SRES B1 SRES B2 FAO2000 Baselinea 

### FAO2000 Improveda 

### Tilman 2001 a 

### Tubiello 2007a 1910 0.0 1920 0.2 1925 0.6 1930 0.9 1935 1.3 1940 2.2 1950 3.7 1955 6.8 1960 9.5 1965 18.7 1970 31.6 1971 33.3 1972 36.2 1973 39.1 1974 38.6 1975 43.7 

### Table AII.2.23 | Anthropogenic nitrogen fixation (Tg-N yr–1

### )

### 1420 Table AII.2.23(continued)



### Year Historical SRES A1 + Biofuel SRES A2 SRES B1 SRES B2 FAO2000 Baselinea 

### FAO2000 Improveda 

### Tilman 2001 a 

### Tubiello 2007a 1975 43.7 1976 46.4 1977 49.9 1978 53.8 1979 57.4 1980 60.6 1981 60.3 1982 61.3 1983 67.1 1984 70.9 1985 70.2 1986 72.5 1987 75.8 1988 79.5 1989 78.9 1990 77.1 1991 75.5 1992 73.7 1993 72.3 1994 72.4 1995 78.5 1996 82.6 77.8 77.8 1997 81.4 1998 82.8 1999 84.9 2000 82.1 87.0 2001 82.9 2002 85.2 2003 90.2 2004 91.7 2005 94.2 2007 98.4 2010 104.1 101.9 101.7 96.5 2015

– – – – 106.8 88.0 2020 122.6 110.7 111.2 100.9 135.0 2030 141.1 117.6 118.4 103.3 124.5 96.2 2040 153.3 130.7 122.2 103.5 2050 165.5 131.1 123.2 101.9 236.0 2060 171.3 134.0 121.4 99.2 2070 177.0 132.1 117.5 95.6 2080 180.1 138.1 111.6 91.5 205 2090 186.0 146.5 108.8 91.3 2100 192.5 149.8 104.1 91.0 Notes: (a) See Chapter 6, Figure 6.30 and Erisman et al. (2008) for details and sources.

### 1421 

## AII.3: Natural Emissions Table AII.3.1a | Net land (natural and land use) CO 2

### emissions (PgC yr–1

### )

Table AII.3.1b | Net ocean CO 2

### emissions (PgC yr–1

### ) Notes: Ten-year average values are shown (2010d= average of 2005–2014). CO2emissions are inferred from ESMs used in CMIP5 (Jones et al., 2013). See notes Table AII.2.1a and Chapter 6, Sections 6.4.3 and 6.4.3.3 and Figure 6.24.

Notes: See Table AII.3.1.a. 

### Year RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5 & 2000d –1.02 ± 0.87 –1.14 ± 0.87 –0.92 ± 0.93 –1.14 ± 0.87 2010d –1.49 ± 1.02 –1.85 ± 0.96 –1.03 ± 1.65 –1.30 ± 1.64 2020d –1.24 ± 1.35 –2.83 ± 1.47 –1.79 ± 1.95 –1.43 ± 1.82 2030d –1.28 ± 1.53 –2.84 ± 1.59 –2.37 ± 1.54 –1.76 ± 2.22 2040d –1.21 ± 1.33 –3.25 ± 1.58 –2.27 ± 1.46 –2.15 ± 2.13 2050d –1.00 ± 1.53 –3.07 ± 1.54 –1.98 ± 1.57 –2.35 ± 2.45 2060d –0.76 ± 0.83 –2.80 ± 1.83 –2.46 ± 2.01 –2.71 ± 2.38 2070d –0.68 ± 0.84 –2.59 ± 1.73 –2.40 ± 2.06 –2.57 ± 2.42 2080d –0.15 ± 0.81 –2.04 ± 1.48 –2.22 ± 2.12 –1.96 ± 2.64 2090d –0.03 ± 0.99 –2.12 ± 1.38 –2.77 ± 1.96 –1.63 ± 2.70 2100d 0.36 ± 0.95 –1.54 ± 1.25 –2.13 ± 1.32 –1.27 ± 2.90



### Year RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 2000d –2.09 ± 0.19 –2.14 ± 0.32 –2.10 ± 0.17 –2.14 ± 0.32 2010d –2.44 ± 0.22 –2.50 ± 0.42 –2.44 ± 0.20 –2.53 ± 0.43 2020d –2.70 ± 0.26 –2.75 ± 0.46 –2.59 ± 0.22 –3.02 ± 0.51 2030d –2.59 ± 0.30 –2.98 ± 0.52 –2.69 ± 0.22 –3.47 ± 0.54 2040d –2.22 ± 0.32 –3.16 ± 0.56 –2.88 ± 0.27 –3.96 ± 0.67 2050d –1.83 ± 0.33 –3.22 ± 0.60 –3.16 ± 0.31 –4.47 ± 0.76 2060d –1.52 ± 0.30 –3.12 ± 0.63 –3.52 ± 0.36 –4.92 ± 0.84 2070d –1.23 ± 0.23 –2.82 ± 0.61 –3.79 ± 0.41 –5.24 ± 0.97 2080d –0.99 ± 0.27 –2.46 ± 0.59 –4.02 ± 0.44 –5.40 ± 1.14 2090d –0.85 ± 0.26 –2.22 ± 0.53 –3.96 ± 0.43 –5.45 ± 1.18 2100d –0.77 ± 0.26 –2.14 ± 0.47 –3.84 ± 0.42 –5.44 ± 1.22

### 1422 Year Observed RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a Min RCP8.5& 

### Max

PI 278 ± 2 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 2011 obs 

### 390.5 ± 0.3

2000 368.9 368.9 368.9 368.9 368 368 368 2005 378.8 378.8 378.8 378.8 378.8 2010 389.3 389.1 389.1 389.3 388 387 388 366 394 413 2020 412.1 411.1 409.4 415.8 416 411 414 386 425 449 2030 430.8 435.0 428.9 448.8 448 434 442 412 461 496 2040 440.2 460.8 450.7 489.4 486 460 472 443 504 555 2050 442.7 486.5 477.7 540.5 527 485 504 482 559 627 2060 441.7 508.9 510.6 603.5 574 506 538 530 625 713 2070 437.5 524.3 549.8 677.1 628 522 575 588 703 810 2080 431.6 531.1 594.3 758.2 690 534 615 651 790 914 2090 426.0 533.7 635.6 844.8 762 542 662 722 885 1026 2100 420.9 538.4 669.7 935.9 846 544 713 794 985 ± 97 1142 

## AII.4: Abundances of the Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases Table AII.4.1 | CO 2

### abundance (ppm)

Notes: For observations (2011 obs) see Chapter 2; and for projections see Box 1.1 (Figure 2), Sections 6.4.3.1, 11.3.1.1, 11.3.5.1.1. RCPn.n refers to values taken directly from the published RCP scenarios using the MAGICC model (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; 2011b). These are harmonized to match observations up to 2005 (378.8 ppm) and project future abundances thereafter. RCP8.5 &shows the average and assessed 90% confidence interval for year 2100, plus the min-max full range derived from the CMIP5 archive for all years (P. Friedlingstein, based on Friedlingstein et al., 2006). 11 ESMs participated (BCC-CSM-1, CanESM2, CESM1-BGC, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGem-2ES, INMCM4, IPSLCM5-LR, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, MRI-ESM1, and Nor-ESM1-ME), running the RCP8.5 anthropogenic emission scenario forced by the RCP8.5 climate change scenario (see Figure 12.36). All abundances are mid-year. Projected values for SRES A2 and B1 and IS92 are the average of reference models taken from the TAR Appendix II.



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5 & 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5&



### PI 720 720 720 720 722 ± 25 722 ± 25 722 ± 25 722 ± 25 2011 obs 

### 1803 ± 4 1803 ± 4 1803 ± 4 1803 ± 4

2000 1751 1751 1751 1751 1760 1760 1760 2010 1773 1767 1769 1779 1861 1827 1855 1795 ± 18 1795 ± 18 1795 ± 18 1795 ± 18 2020 1731 1801 1786 1924 1997 1891 1979 1716 ± 23 1847 ± 21 1811 ± 22 1915 ± 25 2030 1600 1830 1796 2132 2163 1927 2129 1562 ± 38 1886 ± 28 1827 ± 28 2121 ± 44 2040 1527 1842 1841 2399 2357 1919 2306 1463 ± 50 1903 ± 37 1880 ± 36 2412 ± 74 2050 1452 1833 1895 2740 2562 1881 2497 1353 ± 60 1899 ± 47 1941 ± 48 2784 ± 116 2060 1365 1801 1939 3076 2779 1836 2663 1230 ± 71 1872 ± 59 1994 ± 61 3152 ± 163 2070 1311 1745 1962 3322 3011 1797 2791 1153 ± 78 1824 ± 72 2035 ± 77 3428 ± 208 2080 1285 1672 1940 3490 3252 1741 2905 1137 ± 88 1756 ± 87 2033 ± 94 3624 ± 250 2090 1268 1614 1819 3639 3493 1663 3019 1135 ± 98 1690 ± 100 1908 ± 111 3805 ± 293 2100 1254 1576 1649 3751 3731 1574 3136 1127 ± 106 1633 ± 110 1734 ± 124 3938 ± 334 

### Table AII.4.2 | CH 4

### abundance (ppb)

Notes: RCPn.n refers to values taken directly from the published RCP scenarios using the MAGICC model (Meinshausen et al., 2011b) and initialized in year 2005 at 1754 ppb. Values for SRES A2 and B1 and IS92 are from the TAR Appendix II. RCPn.n &values are best estimates with uncertainties (68% confidence intervals) from Chapter 11 (Section 11.3.5) based on Holmes et al. (2013) and using RCP&emissions and uncertainties tabulated above. For RCP&the PI, year 2011 and year 2010 values are based on observations. RCP models used slightly different PI abundances than recommended here (Table AII.1.1, Chapter 2).

### 1423 Table AII.4.3 | N 2

### O abundance (ppb) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5&



### PI 272 272 272 272 270 ± 7 270 ± 7 270 ± 7 270 ± 7 2011 obs 

### 324 ± 1 324 ± 1 324 ± 1 324 ± 1

2000 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 2010 323 323 323 323 325 324 324 323 ± 3 323 ± 3 323 ± 3 323 ± 3 2020 329 330 330 332 335 333 333 330 ± 4 331 ± 4 331 ± 4 332 ± 4 2030 334 337 337 342 347 341 343 336 ± 5 339 ± 5 338 ± 5 342 ± 6 2040 339 344 345 354 360 349 353 342 ± 6 346 ± 7 346 ± 7 353 ± 8 2050 342 351 355 367 373 357 363 346 ± 8 353 ± 9 355 ± 9 365 ± 11 2060 343 356 365 381 387 363 372 349 ± 9 360 ± 10 364 ± 11 377 ± 13 2070 344 361 376 394 401 368 381 351 ± 10 365 ± 12 374 ± 13 389 ± 16 2080 344 366 386 408 416 371 389 352 ± 11 370 ± 13 384 ± 15 401 ± 18 2090 344 369 397 421 432 374 396 353 ± 11 374 ± 14 393 ± 17 413 ± 21 2100 344 372 406 435 447 375 403 354 ± 12 378 ± 16 401 ± 19 425 ± 24 Notes: See notes Table AII.4.2.



### Table AII.4.4 | SF6

### abundance (ppt) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 Obs 2011 obs 

### 7.3 ± 0.1

2010 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7 7 2020 8.9 8.7 10.3 9.9 11 9 2030 9.7 9.7 14.1 13.4 15 12 2040 10.4 10.9 17.9 17.6 20 15 2050 10.8 12.3 21.7 22.1 26 19 2060 11.0 13.8 25.6 27.2 32 23 2070 11.2 15.6 29.5 32.6 40 27 2080 11.3 17.6 33.4 38.1 48 30 2090 11.4 19.9 37.3 44.1 56 33 2100 11.4 22.3 41.0 50.5 65 35 Notes: Projected SF6and PFC abundances (Tables AII.4.4 to AII.4.7) taken directly from RCPs (Meinshausen et al., 2011a). Observed values shown for year 2011.



### Table AII.4.5 | CF4

### abundance (ppt) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 Obs 2011 obs 

### 79.0

2010 84 83 85 83 92 91 2020 93 90 99 91 107 101 2030 99 95 115 99 125 111 2040 103 101 130 107 148 122 2050 106 107 146 115 175 135 2060 108 113 162 123 208 150 2070 109 119 177 131 246 164 2080 110 125 193 138 291 179 2090 111 131 207 146 341 193 2100 112 138 222 153 397 208

### 1424 Table AII.4.6 | C 2

### F6

### abundance (ppt) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 Obs 2011 obs 

### 4.2

2010 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 4 4 2020 6.2 4.8 5.0 5.0 5 4 2030 7.9 5.5 6.2 6.1 6 5 2040 8.6 6.3 7.3 7.2 7 6 2050 8.9 7.1 8.4 8.4 9 7 2060 9.1 7.9 9.4 9.6 11 8 2070 9.2 8.8 10.5 10.7 14 8 2080 9.3 9.6 11.5 11.8 17 9 2090 9.3 10.4 12.5 13.0 20 10 2100 9.3 11.3 13.4 14.1 23 11



### Table AII.4.7 | C 6

### F 14

### abundance (ppt) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2010 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 2020 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 2030 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 2040 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 2050 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 2060 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 2070 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 2080 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 2090 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 2100 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28



### Table AII.4.8 | HFC-23 abundance (ppt) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5 & 

### 2011 obs 

### 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

2010 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 26 26 23.2 ± 1 23.2 ± 1 23.2 ± 1 23.2 ± 1 2020 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 33 33 26.6 ± 1 26.6 ± 1 26.6 ± 1 26.6 ± 1 2030 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 35 35 26.3 ± 1 26.3 ± 1 26.3 ± 1 26.3 ± 1 2040 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 35 35 25.7 ± 1 25.8 ± 1 25.8 ± 1 25.8 ± 1 2050 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 35 35 24.9 ± 1 25.0 ± 1 25.1 ± 1 25.1 ± 1 2060 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.3 35 34 24.0 ± 1 24.2 ± 1 24.3 ± 1 24.4 ± 1 2070 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.6 34 34 23.0 ± 1 23.4 ± 1 23.4 ± 1 23.6 ± 1 2080 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.8 34 33 22.1 ± 1 22.5 ± 1 22.6 ± 1 22.8 ± 1 2090 22.4 22.5 22.7 23.0 34 33 21.2 ± 1 21.6 ± 1 21.8 ± 1 22.1 ± 1 2100 21.6 21.6 21.9 22.3 33 32 20.3 ± 1 20.8 ± 1 21.0 ± 1 21.3 ± 1 Notes: RCPn.n HFC abundances (Tables AII.4.8 to AII.4.15) are as reported (Meinshausen et al., 2011a). SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a (where available) are taken from TAR Appendix II. Observed values are shown for 2011 (see Chapter 2, and Table AII.1.1). The AR5 RCPn.n &abundances are calculated starting with observed abundances (adopted for 2010) and future tropospheric OH changes using the methodology of Prather et al. (2012), updated for uncertainty in lifetime and scenario changes in OH using Holmes et al. (2013) and ACCMIP results (Stevenson et al., 2013; Voulgarakis et al., 2013). Projected RCP&abundances are best estimates with 68% confidence range as uncertainties. See also notes Tables AII.4.2 and AII.5.9.

### 1425 Table AII.4.9 | HFC-32 abundance (ppt)



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 

### 2011 obs 

### 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9

2010 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 1 1 4.1 ± 0 4.1 ± 0 4.1 ± 0 4.1 ± 0 2020 21.0 21.0 21.1 21.1 3 3 23.8 ± 2 24.0 ± 2 24.0 ± 2 24.0 ± 2 2030 34.7 35.2 35.5 35.8 4 4 38.1 ± 5 39.1 ± 5 39.1 ± 5 39.2 ± 5 2040 41.1 41.9 42.4 43.6 6 5 44.7 ± 6 46.7 ± 6 46.9 ± 6 47.8 ± 6 2050 41.9 42.8 43.9 46.2 7 7 44.3 ± 7 47.6 ± 7 48.2 ± 7 50.3 ± 8 2060 43.1 43.8 45.6 48.8 9 8 45.0 ± 7 49.6 ± 8 50.6 ± 8 53.8 ± 8 2070 47.9 48.1 50.7 54.7 11 8 49.4 ± 8 54.9 ± 8 56.8 ± 9 60.3 ± 9 2080 51.3 50.5 54.0 58.6 14 8 53.8 ± 9 58.2 ± 9 61.4 ± 10 64.7 ± 10 2090 51.0 49.6 52.8 58.2 17 8 54.0 ± 9 56.9 ±10 60.6 ± 10 64.4 ± 11 2100 47.5 45.6 47.4 53.8 20 8 50.5 ± 9 51.8 ± 9 55.2 ± 10 59.6 ± 11



### Table AII.4.10 | HFC-125 abundance (ppt) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 

### 2011 obs 

### 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6

2010 7.1 6.4 5.7 7.7 2 2 0 8.2 ± 1 8.2 ± 1 8.2 ± 1 8.2 ± 1 2020 27.4 14.3 7.6 25.7 8 8 2 30.9 ± 1 16.3 ± 1 9.6 ± 1 27.6 ± 1 2030 60.0 23.2 9.2 48.5 16 16 12 64.1 ± 3 25.2 ± 2 10.9 ± 1 51.0 ± 3 2040 90.5 29.7 10.6 72.0 24 24 40 95.5 ± 7 31.9 ± 3 12.2 ± 1 75.9 ± 5 2050 114.5 34.0 11.8 97.6 34 33 87 119.5 ± 11 36.6 ± 4 13.3 ± 2 103 ± 8 2060 133.4 36.0 12.9 122.9 45 43 137 139.0 ± 15 39.0 ± 5 14.4 ± 2 130 ± 12 2070 154.8 35.8 13.9 147.1 58 49 177 160.8 ± 20 39.4 ± 6 15.5 ± 2 156 ± 16 2080 176.2 34.8 14.8 168.7 72 54 210 183.2 ± 24 39.1 ± 6 16.6 ± 2 180 ± 20 2090 192.3 34.0 15.5 185.8 89 57 236 200.9 ± 29 38.7 ± 7 17.4 ± 3 199 ± 25 2100 200.2 33.2 15.8 198.9 107 58 255 210.5 ± 34 38.1 ± 7 18.0 ± 3 215 ± 30



### Table AII.4.11 | HFC-134a abundance (ppt) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 

### 2011 63 ± 1 63 ± 1 63 ± 1 63 ± 1 2010 56 56 56 56 55 55 94 58 ± 3 58 ± 3 58 ± 3 58 ± 3 2020 96 95 90 112 111 108 183 97 ± 5 98 ± 5 91 ± 5 117 ± 5 2030 122 129 109 180 170 165 281 123 ± 9 132 ± 9 110 ± 8 184 ± 11 2040 142 154 121 245 231 223 401 143 ± 12 157 ± 12 122 ± 10 249 ± 17 2050 153 175 129 311 299 293 537 150 ± 15 178 ± 16 130 ± 12 314 ± 24 2060 160 187 135 370 382 352 657 155 ± 16 192 ± 19 137 ± 14 373 ± 32 2070 175 193 141 423 480 380 743 168 ± 18 200 ± 21 143 ± 15 427 ± 39 2080 191 205 144 471 594 391 807 184 ± 21 216 ± 23 148 ± 16 476 ± 47 2090 200 229 144 517 729 390 850 193 ± 23 242 ± 26 150 ± 18 524 ± 56 2100 199 262 141 561 877 379 878 192 ± 25 275 ± 30 148 ± 19 570 ± 64

### 1426 Table AII.4.12 | HFC-143a abundance (ppt)



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 

### 2011 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 2010 10.2 9.4 8.4 10.8 3 2 11 ± 1 11 ± 1 11 ± 1 11 ± 1 2020 33.9 17.8 10.1 28.2 10 9 37 ± 1 19 ± 1 12 ± 1 29 ± 1 2030 72.1 26.8 12.1 46.8 20 18 75 ± 2 28 ± 1 14 ± 1 48 ± 1 2040 109.9 36.0 14.0 65.6 32 29 13 ± 4 38 ± 1 16 ± 1 67 ± 2 2050 142.1 45.4 16.0 85.7 45 43 144 ± 6 47 ± 2 18 ± 1 88 ± 3 2060 168.6 54.0 18.1 105.2 62 57 170 ± 8 56 ± 3 20 ± 1 107 ± 4 2070 196.1 61.4 20.1 123.2 81 68 197 ± 11 64 ± 3 22 ± 1 126 ± 6 2080 222.2 69.7 22.2 138.7 103 77 223 ± 14 73 ± 4 24 ± 2 142 ± 8 2090 242.0 80.2 24.0 150.2 129 85 243 ± 17 85 ± 5 26 ± 2 154 ± 9 2100 252.9 92.6 25.6 157.9 157 90 254 ± 20 98 ± 6 28 ± 2 163 ± 11



### Table AII.4.13 | HFC-227ea abundance (ppt) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 

### 2011 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 2010 1.43 1.28 1.42 1.56 2 2 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.1 2020 2.81 2.10 2.78 3.30 5 6 2.0 ± 0.1 1.5 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.1 2.4 ± 0.1 2030 2.48 1.71 2.44 2.77 10 10 2.0 ± 0.1 1.3 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.1 2.2 ± 0.1 2040 2.09 1.35 2.04 2.29 14 15 1.8 ± 0.1 1.1 ± 0.1 1.8 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.2 2050 1.74 1.06 1.68 1.92 19 21 1.6 ± 0.2 1.0 ± 0.1 1.6 ± 0.2 1.8 ± 0.2 2060 1.35 0.81 1.31 1.55 25 27 1.3 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.1 1.3 ± 0.2 1.5 ± 0.2 2070 1.04 0.61 1.01 1.23 32 31 1.1 ± 0.2 0.6 ± 0.1 1.1 ± 0.2 1.3 ± 0.2 2080 0.81 0.45 0.78 0.99 40 34 0.9 ± 0.2 0.5 ± 0.1 0.9 ± 0.2 1.1 ± 0.2 2090 0.63 0.34 0.59 0.79 49 35 0.8 ± 0.2 0.4 ± 0.1 0.8 ± 0.2 0.9 ± 0.2 2100 1.43 1.28 1.42 1.56 2 2 0.6 ± 0.2 0.3 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.2



### Table AII.4.14 | HFC-245fa abundance (ppt) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 

### 2011 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 2010 7.5 7.3 8.2 9.5 8 8 1 ± 0.2 1 ± 0.2 1 ± 0.2 1 ± 0.2 2020 12.1 19.3 18.1 31.5 17 17 10.2 ± 1 18.9 ± 2 16.4 ± 2 31.0 ± 4 2030 7.4 28.2 21.3 51.2 23 23 6.6 ± 1.5 29.2 ± 4 21.6 ± 3 53.1 ± 8 2040 2.3 31.2 22.6 61.7 29 29 2.2 ± 1.0 33.0 ± 6 23.7 ± 4 63.8 ± 10 2050 0.6 31.9 23.3 62.0 36 38 0.7 ± 0.5 34.1 ± 7 24.6 ± 5 64.4 ± 12 2060 0.2 30.6 23.8 59.1 46 43 0.2 ± 0.2 32.9 ± 7 25.3 ± 5 61.7 ± 13 2070 0.0 28.2 24.2 55.3 58 44 0.1 ± 0.1 30.8 ± 7 25.9 ± 5 58.1 ± 13 2080 0.0 26.4 24.3 51.5 72 43 0.0 ± 0.1 29.3 ± 7 26.4 ± 6 54.4 ± 12 2090 0.0 25.8 23.6 48.0 88 42 0.0 ± 0.0 28.6 ± 6 26.0 ± 6 51.0 ± 12 2100 0.0 26.0 22.3 47.3 105 40 0.0 ± 0.0 28.6 ± 6 24.9 ± 6 50.6 ± 11

### 1427 Table AII.4.15 | HFC-43-10mee abundance (ppt)



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 

### 2011

— — — — 2010 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 1 1 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 2020 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.47 2 1 1.2 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.1 2030 2.09 2.11 2.12 2.14 2 2 2.0 ± 0.2 2.1 ± 0.2 2.1 ± 0.2 2.1 ± 0.2 2040 2.61 2.64 2.66 2.68 3 2 2.7 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3 2050 3.13 3.17 3.22 3.23 3 3 3.3 ± 0.4 3.4 ± 0.4 3.4 ± 0.4 3.4 ± 0.4 2060 3.56 3.61 3.70 3.83 4 3 3.7 ± 0.6 3.9 ± 0.6 4.0 ± 0.6 4.1 ± 0.6 2070 3.78 3.81 3.96 4.52 4 4 3.9 ± 0.7 4.3 ± 0.7 4.3 ± 0.7 4.9 ± 0.7 2080 3.89 3.88 4.08 5.27 5 4 4.1 ± 0.8 4.4 ± 0.8 4.6 ± 0.8 5.8 ± 0.9 2090 3.93 3.87 4.10 6.14 6 4 4.2 ± 0.8 4.5 ± 0.8 4.7 ± 0.9 6.7 ± 1.0 2100 3.91 3.81 3.99 7.12 7 4 4.2 ± 0.9 4.4 ± 0.9 4.6 ± 0.9 7.9 ± 1.2



### Table AII.4.16 | Montreal Protocol greenhouse gas abundances (ppt)



### Year CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl 4 

### CH 3

### CCl 3 

### HCFC-22 2011* 238 ± 1 528 ±2 74.5 ±0.5 15.8 8.4 86 ±2 6.4 ±0.4 213 ±2

2010 240.9 532.5 75.6 16.4 8.4 87.6 8.3 206.8 2020 213.0 492.8 67.4 15.8 8.4 70.9 1.5 301.8 2030 182.6 448.0 59.9 15.1 8.4 54.4 0.2 265.4 2040 153.5 405.8 53.3 14.4 8.4 40.3 0.0 151.0 2050 127.2 367.3 47.4 13.6 8.4 29.2 0.0 71.1 2060 104.4 332.4 42.1 12.9 8.3 20.0 0.0 31.5 2070 85.2 300.7 37.4 12.3 8.3 13.6 0.0 13.7 2080 69.1 272.1 33.3 11.6 8.2 9.3 0.0 5.9 2090 55.9 246.2 29.6 11.1 8.2 6.3 0.0 2.6 2100 45.1 222.8 26.3 10.5 8.1 4.3 0.0 1.1



### Year HCFC-141b HCFC-142b Halon 1211 Halon 1202 Halon 1301 Halon 2402 CH 3

### Br CH 3

### Cl 2011* 21.4 ± 0.5 21.2 ± 0.5 4.07 0.00 3.23 0.45 7.1 534

2010 20.3 20.5 4.07 0.00 3.20 0.46 7.2 550 2020 30.9 30.9 3.08 0.00 3.29 0.38 7.1 550 2030 34.4 31.2 2.06 0.00 3.19 0.27 7.1 550 2040 27.9 23.3 1.30 0.00 2.97 0.18 7.1 550 2050 19.3 14.9 0.78 0.00 2.71 0.12 7.1 550 2060 12.4 9.0 0.46 0.00 2.43 0.07 7.1 550 2070 7.7 5.2 0.26 0.00 2.16 0.05 7.1 550 2080 4.7 3.0 0.15 0.00 1.90 0.03 7.1 550 2090 2.9 1.7 0.08 0.00 1.66 0.02 7.1 550 2100 1.7 0.9 0.05 0.00 1.44 0.01 7.1 550 Notes: Present day (2011*) is from Chapter 2; projections are from Scenario A1, WMO Ozone Assessment (WMO 2010).

### 1428 

## AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes Table AII.5.1 | Stratospheric O3column changes (DU)

Notes: Observed O3columns and trends taken from WMO (Douglass and Filetov, 2010), subtracting tropospheric column O3(Table AII.5.2) with uncertainty estimates driven by polar variability. CMIP5 RCP results are from Eyring et al. (2013). The multi-model mean is derived from the CMIP5 models with predictive (interactive or semi-offline) stratospheric and tropospheric ozone chemistry. The absolute value is shown for year 2000. All other years are differences relative to (minus) year 2000. The multi-model standard deviation is shown only for year 2000; it does not change much over time; and, representing primarily the spread in absolute O3column, it is larger than the standard deviation of the changes (not evaluated here). All models used the same projections for ozonedepleting substances. Near-term differences in projected O3columns across scenarios reflect model sampling (i.e., different sets of models contributing to each RCP), while long-term changes reflect changes in N 2O, CH 4and climate. See Section 11.3.5.1.2. 

### Year Obs RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1850 17 17 17 17 1980 11 15 15 15 15 2000 269 ± 8 276 ± 9 276 ± 9 276 ± 9 276 ± 9 2010 0 2 –1 1 –2 2020 4 0 3 2 2030 8 4 7 5 2040 9 7 10 9 2050 12 10 13 12 2060 13 12 14 15 2070 13 11 15 16 2080 12 11 16 15 2090 13 12 16 18 2100 15 13 17 20



### Table AII.5.2 | Tropospheric O3column changes (DU) 

### Year CMIP5 ACCMIP RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1850 –10.2 –10.2 –10.2 –10.2 –8.9 –8.9 –8.9 –8.9 1980 –2.0 –2.0 –2.0 –2.0 –1.3 –1.3 –1.3 –1.3 2000 31.1 ± 3.3 31.1 ± 3.3 31.1 ± 3.3 31.1 ± 3.3 30.8 ± 2.1 30.8 ± 2.1 30.8 ± 2.1 30.8 ± 2.1 2010 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 2020 1.0 0.9 1.0 2.1 2030 0.6 1.5 1.4 3.5 –1.3 1.0 –0.1 1.8 2040 0.5 1.6 2.1 4.5 2050 0.0 1.7 2.4 5.7 2060 –0.7 1.3 2.6 7.1 2070 –1.6 0.5 2.3 8.1 2080 –2.5 –0.1 2.0 8.9 2090 –2.8 –0.4 1.5 9.5 2100 –3.1 –0.5 1.1 10.2 –5.4 –2.2 –2.6 5.3 (continued on next page)

### 1429 Year A2 B1 IS92a CLE MFR 1850 1980 2000 34.0 34.0 34.0 32.6 32.6 2010 1.7 0.8 1.5 2020 4.2 1.6 3.1 2030 6.8 1.9 4.7 1.5 ± 0.8 –1.4 ± 0.4 2040 8.6 1.8 6.1 2050 10.2 1.0 7.6 2060 11.7 0.0 8.9 2070 13.2 –0.9 10.0 2080 15.3 –1.9 11.1 2090 18.0 –2.8 12.1 2100 20.8 –3.9 13.2 Notes:RCP results from CMIP5 (Eyring et al., 2013) and ACCMIP (Young et al., 2013). For ACCMIP all models have interactive tropospheric ozone chemistry and are included, in contrast to the CMIP5 multimodel mean which includes only those models with predictive (interactive or semi-offline) stratospheric and tropospheric ozone chemistry. The absolute value is shown for year 2000. All other years are differences relative to (minus) year 2000. The multi-model standard deviation is shown only for year 2000; it does not change much over time; and, representing primarily the spread in absolute O3columns, it is larger than the standard deviation of the changes across individual models (not evaluated here). SRES values are from TAR Appendix II. CLE/MFR scenarios are from Dentener et al. (2005, 2006): CLE includes climate change, MFR does not. See Section 11.3.5.1.2. 

### Table AII.5.2 ( continued)



### Table AII.5.3 | Total aerosol optical depth (AOD) 

### Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1860d 0.056 0.101 0.161 0.094 0.101 0.092 0.100 1870d 0.058 0.102 0.162 0.095 0.102 0.094 0.101 1180d 0.058 0.102 0.163 0.095 0.102 0.094 0.101 1890d 0.059 0.104 0.164 0.098 0.104 0.096 0.103 1900d 0.058 0.105 0.166 0.099 0.105 0.097 0.104 1910d 0.059 0.107 0.169 0.101 0.107 0.099 0.106 1920d 0.060 0.108 0.170 0.102 0.108 0.100 0.107 1930d 0.061 0.110 0.173 0.104 0.110 0.101 0.109 1940d 0.061 0.111 0.175 0.105 0.111 0.103 0.110 1950d 0.060 0.115 0.181 0.108 0.115 0.106 0.113 1960d 0.064 0.122 0.192 0.116 0.122 0.113 0.120 1970d 0.065 0.130 0.204 0.123 0.130 0.120 0.128 1980d 0.066 0.135 0.221 0.127 0.135 0.124 0.133 1990d 0.068 0.138 0.231 0.129 0.138 0.126 0.135 2000d 0.068 0.136 0.232 0.127 0.136 0.124 0.134 2010d 0.127 0.137 0.124 0.133 2020d 0.123 0.134 0.122 0.132 2030d 0.117 0.130 0.119 0.130 2040d 0.111 0.126 0.118 0.126 2050d 0.108 0.123 0.117 0.124 2060d 0.106 0.119 0.116 0.121 2070d 0.105 0.116 0.110 0.120 2080d 0.103 0.114 0.107 0.118 2090d 0.102 0.112 0.106 0.118 2100d 0.101 0.111 0.105 0.117 Number of models 21 15 21 13 19 Notes: Multi-model decadal global means (2030d= 2025–2034, 2100d= 2095–2100) from CMIP5 models reporting AOD. The numbers of models for each experiment are indicated in the bottom row. The full range of models (given only for historical period for AOD and AAOD) is large and systematic in that models tend to scale relative to one another. Historical estimates for different RCPs vary because of the models included. RCP4.5 included the full set of CMIP5 models contributing aerosol results (21). The standard deviation of the models is 28% (AOD) and 62% (AAOD) (N. Mahowald, CMIP5 archive; Lamarque et al., 2013; Shindell et al., 2013). See Sections 11.3.5.1.3 and 11.3.6.1.

### 1430 Table AII.5.4 | Absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) 

### Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1860d 0.00050 0.0035 0.0054 0.0033 0.0035 0.0031 0.0035 1870d 0.00060 0.0035 0.0054 0.0033 0.0035 0.0032 0.0036 1180d 0.00060 0.0036 0.0054 0.0034 0.0036 0.0032 0.0036 1890d 0.00060 0.0036 0.0055 0.0035 0.0036 0.0033 0.0037 1900d 0.00070 0.0037 0.0056 0.0035 0.0037 0.0033 0.0038 1910d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0057 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0038 1920d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0058 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0039 1930d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0057 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0038 1940d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0057 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0039 1950d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0058 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0039 1960d 0.00080 0.0040 0.0059 0.0038 0.0040 0.0036 0.0040 1970d 0.00090 0.0042 0.0065 0.0040 0.0042 0.0038 0.0043 1980d 0.00100 0.0046 0.0073 0.0044 0.0046 0.0042 0.0046 1990d 0.00110 0.0049 0.0079 0.0047 0.0049 0.0044 0.0049 2000d 0.00120 0.0050 0.0084 0.0048 0.0050 0.0045 0.0051 2010d 0.0050 0.0051 0.0046 0.0051 2020d 0.0050 0.0050 0.0045 0.0050 2030d 0.0047 0.0049 0.0045 0.0049 2040d 0.0043 0.0048 0.0044 0.0047 2050d 0.0041 0.0046 0.0044 0.0046 2060d 0.0039 0.0044 0.0043 0.0045 2070d 0.0037 0.0042 0.0041 0.0044 2080d 0.0037 0.0040 0.0039 0.0043 2090d 0.0036 0.0039 0.0038 0.0043 2100d 0.0036 0.0039 0.0038 0.0042 Number of models 14 11 14 10 12 Notes: See notes Table AII.5.3.



### Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1860d 0.09 0.61 1.42 0.60 0.61 0.57 0.60 1870d 0.10 0.62 1.45 0.62 0.62 0.59 0.61 1180d 0.12 0.65 1.49 0.64 0.65 0.61 0.64 1890d 0.16 0.68 1.57 0.67 0.68 0.64 0.66 1900d 0.21 0.73 1.65 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.72 1910d 0.23 0.79 1.80 0.79 0.79 0.76 0.78 1920d 0.23 0.83 1.84 0.83 0.83 0.80 0.81 1930d 0.24 0.87 1.94 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.86 1940d 0.25 0.93 2.05 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.92 1950d 0.27 1.03 2.21 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.01 1960d 0.31 1.25 2.67 1.29 1.25 1.24 1.23 1970d 0.35 1.48 3.14 1.52 1.48 1.45 1.47 1980d 0.37 1.58 3.33 1.62 1.58 1.54 1.58 1990d 0.37 1.59 3.31 1.63 1.59 1.55 1.60 2000d 0.37 1.55 3.17 1.59 1.55 1.53 1.56 

### Table AII.5.5 | Sulphate aerosol atmospheric burden (TgS)

(continued on next page)

### 1431 Notes: See notes Table AII.5.3. The standard deviation of the models is about 50% for sulphate, OC and BC aerosol loadings (N. Mahowald, CMIP5 archive; Lamarque et al., 2013; Shindell et al., 2013). 

### Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2010d 1.57 1.59 1.52 1.54 2020d 1.43 1.54 1.43 1.51 2030d 1.21 1.44 1.33 1.44 2040d 1.03 1.31 1.34 1.31 2050d 0.94 1.16 1.29 1.20 2060d 0.90 1.05 1.24 1.13 2070d 0.86 0.96 1.06 1.08 2080d 0.81 0.88 0.92 1.05 2090d 0.76 0.85 0.86 0.98 2100d 0.71 0.83 0.80 0.94 Number of models 18 12 18 10 16 

### Table AII.5.5 | (continued)

Table AII.5.6 | OC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg) 

### Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1860d 0.34 1.08 2.7 1.09 1.08 1.13 1.12 1870d 0.35 1.09 2.7 1.10 1.09 1.14 1.13 1180d 0.36 1.09 2.7 1.11 1.09 1.15 1.14 1890d 0.35 1.10 2.8 1.12 1.10 1.16 1.15 1900d 0.36 1.11 2.8 1.12 1.11 1.16 1.15 1910d 0.33 1.10 2.8 1.11 1.10 1.15 1.15 1920d 0.34 1.08 2.7 1.09 1.08 1.12 1.13 1930d 0.33 1.07 2.6 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.12 1940d 0.33 1.07 2.6 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.12 1950d 0.36 1.08 2.6 1.08 1.08 1.11 1.12 1960d 0.41 1.13 2.7 1.13 1.13 1.17 1.17 1970d 0.46 1.20 2.9 1.22 1.20 1.26 1.24 1980d 0.54 1.28 3.1 1.32 1.28 1.36 1.33 1990d 0.53 1.38 3.3 1.44 1.38 1.48 1.43 2000d 0.53 1.41 3.5 1.47 1.41 1.52 1.46 2010d 1.59 1.21 1.55 1.29 2020d 1.59 1.12 1.56 1.26 2030d 1.56 1.08 1.55 1.25 2040d 1.47 1.06 1.57 1.22 2050d 1.41 1.04 1.57 1.20 2060d 1.40 1.01 1.56 1.17 2070d 1.36 0.96 1.55 1.14 2080d 1.33 0.92 1.55 1.13 2090d 1.32 0.90 1.54 1.10 2100d 1.30 0.89 1.55 1.09 Number of models 19 12 19 10 17 Notes: See notes Table AII.5.5.

### 1432 Table AII.5.7 | BC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg) 

### Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1860d 0.037 0.059 0.127 0.058 0.059 0.057 0.059 1870d 0.039 0.063 0.133 0.062 0.063 0.061 0.064 1180d 0.040 0.068 0.139 0.066 0.068 0.065 0.069 1890d 0.043 0.075 0.149 0.070 0.075 0.070 0.076 1900d 0.045 0.082 0.156 0.076 0.082 0.075 0.083 1910d 0.048 0.089 0.167 0.081 0.089 0.081 0.091 1920d 0.049 0.092 0.167 0.083 0.092 0.082 0.095 1930d 0.049 0.090 0.161 0.082 0.090 0.081 0.092 1940d 0.051 0.091 0.162 0.082 0.091 0.082 0.093 1950d 0.053 0.094 0.165 0.085 0.094 0.085 0.096 1960d 0.061 0.102 0.179 0.094 0.102 0.094 0.105 1970d 0.071 0.115 0.201 0.107 0.115 0.107 0.117 1980d 0.088 0.141 0.245 0.130 0.141 0.130 0.144 1990d 0.098 0.157 0.274 0.146 0.157 0.145 0.161 2000d 0.101 0.164 0.293 0.153 0.164 0.152 0.169 2010d 0.170 0.174 0.157 0.170 2020d 0.169 0.174 0.152 0.164 2030d 0.144 0.166 0.147 0.153 2040d 0.120 0.155 0.144 0.138 2050d 0.103 0.141 0.138 0.127 2060d 0.091 0.126 0.127 0.118 2070d 0.081 0.110 0.113 0.110 2080d 0.075 0.094 0.101 0.106 2090d 0.071 0.087 0.092 0.102 2100d 0.068 0.084 0.087 0.099 Number of models 19 13 19 11 17 Notes: See notes Table AII.5.5.



### Year RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 

### RCP2.6^ RCP4.5^ RCP6.0^ RCP8.5^ 2000 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 2010 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 2020 11.0 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 2030 10.8 ± 1.3 11.3 ± 1.4 11.3 ± 1.4 11.4 ± 1.4 10.6 ± 1.4 11.4 ± 2.1 11.1 ± 1.4 11.2 ± 1.4 2040 10.6 ± 1.3 11.3 ± 1.4 11.4 ± 1.4 11.8 ± 1.4 2050 10.2 ± 1.3 11.3 ± 1.4 11.5 ± 1.4 12.2 ± 1.5 2060 9.9 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.4 11.6 ± 1.4 12.6 ± 1.6 2070 9.9 ± 1.4 11.2 ± 1.5 11.8 ± 1.5 12.6 ± 1.7 2080 10.4 ± 1.5 11.1 ± 1.5 11.9 ± 1.6 12.6 ± 1.8 2090 10.4 ± 1.6 10.9 ± 1.6 11.7 ± 1.7 12.6 ± 1.8 2100 10.6 ± 1.6 10.7 ± 1.6 11.4 ± 1.8 12.5 ± 1.9 10.7 ± 1.6 10.1 ± 1.5 11.1 ± 1.8 12.1 ± 2.0 

### Table AII.5.8 | CH 4

### atmospheric lifetime (yr) against loss by tropospheric OH

Notes: RCPn.n &lifetimes based on best estimate with uncertainty for 2000–2010 (Prather et al., 2012) and then projecting changes in key factors (Holmes et al., 2013). All uncertainties are 68% confidence intervals. RCPn.n ^lifetimes are from ACCMIP results (Voulgarakis et al., 2013) scaled to 11.2 ± 1.3 yr for year 2000; the ACCMIP mean and standard deviation in 2000 are 9.8 ± 1.5 yr. Projected ACCMIP values combine the present day uncertainty with the model standard deviation of future change. Note that the total atmospheric lifetime of CH 4must include other losses (e.g., stratosphere, surface, tropospheric chlorine), and for 2010 it is 9.1 ± 0.9 yr, see Chapter 8, Section 11.3.5.1.1.

### 1433 Year RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5 & 2010 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 2020 130 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 2030 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 2040 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 129 ± 10 2050 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 2060 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 128 ± 10 2070 129 ± 11 128 ± 11 128 ± 10 128 ± 11 2080 128 ± 11 128 ± 11 128 ± 11 127 ± 11 2090 128 ± 11 128 ± 11 127 ± 11 127 ± 11 2100 128 ± 11 127 ± 11 127 ± 11 126 ± 11 

### Table AII.5.9 | N 2

### O atmospheric lifetime (yr)

Notes: RCPn.n &lifetimes based on projections from Fleming et al. (2011) and Prather et al. (2012). All uncertainties are 68% confidence intervals.



## AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing Table AII.6.1 | ERF from CO2(W m–2) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a 2000 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.50 2010 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.78 1.77 1.78 2020 2.11 2.09 2.07 2.15 2.16 2.09 2.13 2030 2.34 2.40 2.32 2.56 2.55 2.38 2.48 2040 2.46 2.70 2.58 3.03 2.99 2.69 2.83 2050 2.49 2.99 2.90 3.56 3.42 2.98 3.18 2060 2.48 3.23 3.25 4.15 3.88 3.20 3.53 2070 2.43 3.39 3.65 4.76 4.36 3.37 3.89 2080 2.35 3.46 4.06 5.37 4.86 3.49 4.25 2090 2.28 3.49 4.42 5.95 5.39 3.57 4.64 2100 2.22 3.54 4.70 6.49 5.95 3.59 5.04 Notes: RCPn.n ERF based on RCP published projections (Tables AII.4.1 to AII.4.3) and TAR formula for RF. See Chapter 8, Figure 8.18, Section 11.3.5, 11.3.6.1, Figure 12.3. SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a calculated from abundances in Tables AII.4.1 to AII.4.3.



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a 2000 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.48 2010 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.50 0.51 2020 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.54 0.56 0.53 0.56 2030 0.42 0.50 0.49 0.61 0.62 0.54 0.61 2040 0.39 0.51 0.51 0.70 0.68 0.54 0.67 2050 0.36 0.50 0.53 0.80 0.75 0.52 0.73 2060 0.32 0.49 0.54 0.90 0.81 0.51 0.78 2070 0.30 0.47 0.55 0.97 0.88 0.49 0.82 2080 0.29 0.44 0.54 1.01 0.95 0.47 0.85 2090 0.28 0.42 0.50 1.05 1.01 0.44 0.88 2100 0.27 0.41 0.44 1.08 1.07 0.41 0.92 

### Table AII.6.2 | ERF from CH 4

### (W m–2

### )

Notes: See notes Table AII.6.1.

### 1434 Table AII.6.3 | ERF from N 2

### O (W m–2

### ) 

### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a 2000 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 2010 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 2020 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 2030 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.23 2040 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.25 0.26 2050 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.30 0.32 0.27 0.29 2060 0.23 0.27 0.29 0.34 0.36 0.29 0.32 2070 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.40 0.30 0.34 2080 0.23 0.30 0.36 0.42 0.44 0.31 0.37 2090 0.23 0.31 0.39 0.46 0.49 0.32 0.39 2100 0.23 0.32 0.41 0.49 0.53 0.32 0.41 Notes: See notes Table AII.6.1.

Notes: See notes Table AII.6.4. 

### Table AII.6.4 | ERF from all HFCs (W m–2

### ) 

### Year Historical RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2011* 0.019 2010 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.020 2020 0.038 0.034 0.030 0.044 2030 0.056 0.046 0.036 0.069 2040 0.071 0.055 0.040 0.091 2050 0.083 0.061 0.042 0.110 2060 0.092 0.064 0.044 0.128 2070 0.104 0.066 0.046 0.144 2080 0.116 0.069 0.047 0.159 2090 0.124 0.074 0.047 0.171 2100 0.126 0.080 0.046 0.182 Notes: See Table 8.3, 8.A.1, Section 11.3.5.1.1. ERF is calculated from RCP published abundances (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb) and AR5 radiative efficiencies (Chapter 8).



### Table AII.6.5 | ERF from all PFCs and SF6

### (W m–2

### )



### Year Historical RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2011* 0.009 2010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 2020 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.012 2030 0.014 0.013 0.017 0.015 2040 0.015 0.014 0.021 0.019 2050 0.015 0.016 0.025 0.022 2060 0.016 0.017 0.029 0.026 2070 0.016 0.019 0.033 0.031 2080 0.016 0.021 0.038 0.035 2090 0.016 0.023 0.042 0.039 2100 0.016 0.026 0.045 0.044

### 1435 Table AII.6.6 | ERF from Montreal Protocol greenhouse gases (W m–2

### ) 

### Year Historical WMO A1 2011* 0.328 2020 0.33 ± 0.01 2030 0.29 ± 0.01 2040 0.24 ± 0.01 2050 0.20 ± 0.01 2060 0.17 ± 0.02 2070 0.15 ± 0.02 2080 0.13 ± 0.02 2090 0.11 ± 0.02 2100 0.10 ± 0.02 Notes: See Table 8.3, 8.A.1. ERF is calculated from AR5 radiative efficiency and projected abundances in Scenario A1 of WMO/UNEP assessment (WMO 2010). The 68% confidence interval shown is approximated by combining uncertainty in the radiative efficiency of each gas (±6.1%) and the decay of each gas since 2010 from Table AII.4.16 (±15%). All sources of uncertainty are assumed to be independent (see Chapters 2 and 8). 

### Year AR5 CCMVal-2 1960 0.0 1980 –0.033 2000 –0.079 2011* –0.05 2050 –0.055 2100 –0.075 

### Table AII.6.7a | ERF from stratospheric O3

### changes since 1850 (W m–2

### )

Notes: AR5 results are from Chapter 8, see also Sections 11.3.5.1.2, 11.3.6.1. CCMVal-2 results (Cionni et al. 2011) are the multi-model average (13 chemistry–climate models) running a single scenario for stratospheric change: REF-B2 scenario of CCMVal-2 with SRES A1B climate scenario.



### Year AR5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1980 0.31 ± 0.05 0.31 ± 0.05 0.31 ± 0.05 0.31 ± 0.05 2000 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 2011* 0.40 2030 0.32 0.38 0.36 0.44 2100 0.17 0.27 0.27 0.60 ± 0.11 

### Table AII.6.7b | ERF from tropospheric O3

### changes since 1850 (W m–2

### )

Notes: AR5 results from Chapter 8; see also Sections 11.3.5.1.2, 11.3.6.1. Model mean results from ACCMIP (Stevenson et al., 2013) using a consistent model set (FGKN), which is similar to the all-model mean. Standard deviation across models shown for 1980s decade is similar for all scenarios except for RCP8.5 at 2100, which is twice as large.



### Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 A1B B1 IS92a AR5 Historical 1850 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.06 1990 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.60 2000 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.31 1.87 2010 1.81 1.81 1.78 1.84 1.74 1.65 1.73 1.63 2.25 2020 2.25 2.25 2.15 2.32 2.04 2.16 2.15 2.00 2030 2.52 2.67 2.52 2.91 2.56 2.84 2.56 2.40 2040 2.65 3.07 2.82 3.61 3.22 3.61 2.93 2.82 2050 2.64 3.42 3.20 4.37 3.89 4.16 3.30 3.25 2060 2.55 3.67 3.58 5.13 4.71 4.79 3.65 3.76 2070 2.47 3.84 4.11 5.89 5.56 5.28 3.92 4.24 2080 2.41 3.90 4.60 6.60 6.40 5.62 4.09 4.74 2090 2.35 3.91 4.93 7.32 7.22 5.86 4.18 5.26 2100 2.30 3.94 5.15 7.97 8.07 6.05 4.19 5.79 

### Table AII.6.8:Total anthropogenic ERF from published RCPs and SRES (W m–2

### )

Notes: Derived from RCP published CO2-eq concentrations that aggregate all anthropogenic forcings including greenhouse gases plus aerosols. These results may not be directly comparable to ERF values used in AR5 because of how aerosol indirect effects are included, but results are similar to those derived using ERF in Chapter 12 (see Figure 12.4). Comparisons with the TAR Appendix II (SRES A2 and B1) may not be equivalent because those total RF values (TAR II.3.11) were made using the TAR Chapter 9 Simple Model, not always consistent with the individual components in that appendix (TAR II.3.1 to 9). See Chapter 1, Sections 11.3.6.1, 12.3.1.3 and 12.3.1.4, Figures 1.15 and 12.3. For AR5 Historical, see Table AII.1.2 and Chapter 8.

### 1436 Table AII.6.9:ERF components relative to 1850 (W m–2

### ) derived from ACCMIP 

### Year WMGHG Ozone Aerosol ERF Net 1930 0.58 ± 0.04 0.09 ± 0.03 –0.24 ± 0.06 0.44 ± 0.07 1980 1.56 ± 0.10 0.30 ± 0.10 –0.90 ± 0.22 1.00 ± 0.26 2000 2.30 ± 0.14 0.33 ± 0.11 –1.17 ± 0.28 1.51 ± 0.33 2030 RCP8.5 3.64 ± 0.22 0.43 ± 0.12 –0.91 ± 0.22 3.20 ± 0.33 2100 RCP2.6 2.83 ± 0.17 0.14 ± 0.07 –0.12 ± 0.06* 2.86 ± 0.19 2100 RCP4.5 4.33 ± 0.26 0.23 ± 0.09 –0.12 ± 0.06* 4.44 ± 0.28 2100 RCP6.0 5.60 ± 0.34 0.25 ± 0.05 –0.12 ± 0.06* 5.74 ± 0.35 2100 RCP8.5 8.27 ± 0.50 0.55 ± 0.18 –0.12 ± 0.03 8.71 ± 0.53 Notes: Radiative forcing and adjusted forcing from the ACCMIP results (Shindell et al., 2013) are given for all well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG), ozone, aerosols, and the net. Original 90% confidence intervals have been reduced to 68% confidence to compare with the CMIP5 model standard deviations in Table AII.6.10. Some uncertainty ranges (*) are estimated from the 2100 RCP8.5 results (see Chapter 12). See Sections 11.3.5.1.3 and 11.3.6.1, Figure 12.4.



### Year SRES A1B RCP2.6& 

### RCP4.5& 

### RCP6.0& 

### RCP8.5& 1850sH –0.19 ± 0.19 –0.12 ± 0.07 1986–2005 H 1.51 ± 0.44 1.34 ± 0.50 1986–2005 1.51 ± 0.44 1.31 ± 0.47 1.30 ± 0.48 1.29 ± 0.51 1.30 ± 0.47

2010d 2.18 ± 0.53 1.97 ± 0.50 1.91 ± 0.53 1.90 ± 0.54 1.96 ± 0.53 2020d 2.58 ± 0.57 2.33 ± 0.47 2.27 ± 0.51 2.16 ± 0.55 2.43 ± 0.52 2030d 3.15 ± 0.60 2.50 ± 0.51 2.61 ± 0.54 2.41 ± 0.60 2.92 ± 0.57 2040d 3.77 ± 0.72 2.64 ± 0.47 2.98 ± 0.55 2.72 ± 0.58 3.52 ± 0.60 2050d 4.32 ± 0.73 2.65 ± 0.47 3.25 ± 0.56 3.07 ± 0.61 4.21 ± 0.63 2060d 4.86 ± 0.74 2.57 ± 0.50 3.50 ± 0.59 3.40 ± 0.60 4.97 ± 0.68 2070d 5.32 ± 0.79 2.51 ± 0.50 3.65 ± 0.58 3.90 ± 0.65 5.70 ± 0.76 2080d 5.71 ± 0.81 2.40 ± 0.46 3.71 ± 0.55 4.27 ± 0.69 6.31 ± 0.81 2090d 6.00 ± 0.83 2.44 ± 0.49 3.78 ± 0.58 4.64 ± 0.71 7.13 ± 0.89 2081–2100 5.99 ± 0.78 2.40 ± 0.46 3.73 ± 0.56 4.56 ± 0.70 7.02 ± 0.92 

### Table AII.6.10 | Total anthropogenic plus natural ERF (W m–2

### ) from CMIP5 and CMIP3, including historical

Notes: CMIP5 historical and RCP results (Forster et al., 2013) are shown with CMIP3 SRES A1B results (Forster and Taylor, 2006). The alternative results for 1986–2005 with CMIP5 are derived from: all models contributing historical experiments (1986–2005 H), and the subsets of models contributing to each RCP experiment (next line, 1986–2005). For SRES A1B the same set of models is used from 1850 to 2100. Values are 10-year averages (2090d= 2086–2095) and show multi-model means and standard deviations. See Chapter 12, Section 12.3 and discussion of Figure 12.4, also Sections 8.1, 9.3.2.2, 11.3.6.1 and 11.3.6.3. Due to lack of reporting, for RCP8.5 the 2081–2100 result contains one fewer model than the 2090d decade, and for A1B the 1850s result has just 5 models and the 2081–2100 result has 3 fewer models than the 2090ddecade.

### 1437 

## AII.7: Environmental Data Table AII.7.1 | Global mean surface O3change (ppb) 

### HTAP SRES Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 CLE MFR 2000 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 28.7 28.7 2010 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.6 2020 –0.3 –0.2 –0.2 0.6 2.8 1.1 2030 –1.1 –0.1 –0.3 1.0 4.4 1.3 0.7 ± 1.4 –2.3 ± 1.1 2040 –1.5 –0.3 –0.3 1.2 5.3 1.3 2050 –1.9 –0.8 –0.4 1.5 6.2 0.8 2060 –2.4 –1.3 –0.5 1.8 7.1 0.2 2070 –3.0 –1.9 –1.0 1.9 8.0 –0.5 2080 –3.5 –2.5 –1.5 1.9 9.2 –1.1 2090 –3.8 –2.8 –2.1 1.9 10.6 –1.7 2100 –4.2 –3.0 –2.8 1.9 11.9 –2.5

Notes: HTAP results are from Wild et al. (2012) and use the published O3sensitivities to regional emissions from the HTAP multi-model study (HTAP 2010) and scale those O3changes to the RCP emission scenarios. The ±1 standard deviation (68% confidence interval) over the range of 14 parametric models is shown for year 2000 and is similar for all years. Results from the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios are from the TAR OxComp studies diagnosed by Wild (Prather et al., 2001; 2003). CLE and MFR results (Dentener et al., 2005; 2006) include uncertainty (standard deviation of model results) in the change since year 2000, and CLE alone includes climate effects. The CMIP5 and ACCMIP results are from V. Naik and A. Fiore based on Fiore et al. (2012) and include the standard deviation over the models in year 2000, which is similar for following years. This does not necessarily reflect the uncertainty in the projected change, which may be smaller, see Fiore et al. (2012). The difference in year 2000 between CMIP5 (4 models) and ACCMIP (12 models) reflect different model biases. Even though ACCMIP only has three decades (2000, 2030, 2100), the greater number of models (5 to 11 depending on time slice and scenario) makes this a more robust estimate. See Chapter 11, ES, Section 11.3.5.2.2. 

### CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 30.0 ± 4.2 30.0 ± 4.2 30.0 ± 4.2 30.0 ± 4.2 28.1 ± 3.1 28.1 ± 3.2 28.1± 3.1 28.1 ± 3.1 2010 –0.4 –0.2 –0.6 –0.1 2020 –0.9 –0.3 –0.9 0.7 2030 –1.8 –0.2 –1.1 1.5 –1.4 0.3 –0.6 1.7 2040 –2.3 –0.3 –1.2 2.0 2050 –2.9 –0.9 –1.5 2.5 2060 –4.0 –1.7 –1.9 2.9 2070 –5.4 –2.8 –2.8 3.1 2080 –6.4 –3.7 –3.9 3.0 2090 –6.9 –4.1 –4.8 2.8 2100 –7.2 –4.3 –5.6 2.7 –6.3 –3.5 –4.9 3.4

### 1438 Table AII.7.2 | Surface O3

### change (ppb) for HTAP regions 

### North America Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 2010 –0.8 –1.1 –0.1 –1.5 1.5 0.4 2020 –1.9 –2.3 –0.9 –1.4 3.6 0.5 2030 –3.7 –2.7 –1.5 –1.1 5.3 –0.1 2040 –4.6 –3.2 –1.9 –1.1 6.2 –0.8 2050 –5.6 –3.9 –2.4 –0.9 6.9 –1.9 2060 –6.5 –4.6 –3.0 –0.7 7.9 –2.9 2070 –7.5 –5.3 –4.0 –0.7 8.8 –3.8 2080 –8.2 –6.1 –4.9 –0.7 10.3 –4.5 2090 –8.5 –6.4 –5.7 –0.8 12.2 –5.2 2100 –8.9 –6.6 –6.7 –0.9 13.9 –6.1



### Europe Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 2010 –0.5 –0.3 –0.1 –0.7 1.5 0.3 2020 –1.4 –1.3 –0.7 –0.2 3.7 0.6 2030 –3.0 –1.4 –1.1 0.1 5.7 0.2 2040 –3.8 –1.9 –1.5 0.1 6.7 –0.3 2050 –4.6 –2.7 –2.0 0.3 7.7 –1.2 2060 –5.6 –3.5 –2.6 0.4 8.8 –2.1 2070 –6.6 –4.3 –3.3 0.4 9.8 –3.0 2080 –7.5 –5.1 –4.2 0.2 11.3 –3.8 2090 –8.0 –5.6 –5.2 –0.1 13.4 –4.6 2100 –8.5 –6.0 –6.4 –0.2 15.1 –5.6



### South Asia Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 2010 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.4 2.7 1.8 2020 1.6 2.2 0.0 3.9 6.1 3.3 2030 0.5 3.4 –0.6 5.0 8.9 3.9 2040 0.3 3.5 –0.1 5.5 10.4 4.1 2050 0.2 2.9 0.0 5.2 11.7 2.9 2060 –0.1 1.1 0.4 5.1 12.7 1.5 2070 –1.0 –1.2 –0.2 4.9 13.6 –0.1 2080 –2.6 –3.9 –1.7 4.9 14.5 –1.5 2090 –4.4 –5.0 –3.0 4.1 15.1 –3.0 2100 –6.8 –6.0 –4.7 4.0 15.0 –4.6 (continued on next page)

### 1439 Table AII.7.2 | (continued) 

### East Asia Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 2000 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 2010 1.0 0.6 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.1 2020 0.5 0.6 0.4 2.5 4.6 1.9 2030 –1.4 0.2 0.6 2.8 6.8 2.1 2040 –2.7 –0.8 1.4 1.8 8.0 2.0 2050 –3.8 –2.5 1.4 1.4 9.1 0.9 2060 –4.8 –3.6 0.9 1.4 10.2 –0.3 2070 –6.0 –4.6 –0.7 1.2 11.2 –1.4 2080 –6.9 –5.5 –2.2 1.0 12.5 –2.4 2090 –7.4 –5.8 –3.5 0.7 13.9 –3.4 2100 –8.0 –6.0 –4.9 0.5 14.9 –4.6 Notes: HTAP results from Wild et al. (2012); see Table AII.7.1.



### Table AII.7.3 | Surface O3

### change (ppb) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions 

### Africa CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 33.8 ± 4.3 33.8 ± 4.3 33.8 ± 4.3 33.8 ± 4.3 33.1 ± 4.1 33.1 ± 4.1 33.1 ± 4.1 33.1 ± 4.1 2010 –0.7 –0.1 –1.2 –0.2 2020 –1.0 0.2 –1.5 0.9 2030 –1.9 0.5 –1.8 1.7 –1.4 0.9 –1.3 2.4 2040 –2.0 0.6 –1.8 2.6 2050 –2.3 0.2 –2.0 3.2 2060 –2.6 –0.3 –2.2 3.7 2070 –3.2 –1.2 –2.8 4.0 2080 –3.6 –2.3 –3.7 4.1 2090 –4.1 –3.0 –4.5 4.1 2100 –4.8 –3.3 –5.2 4.1 –4.9 –2.9 –4.9 5.0



### Australia CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 23.3 ± 4.6 23.3 ± 4.6 23.3 ± 4.6 23.3 ± 4.6 23.7 ± 3.5 23.7 ± 3.5 23.7 ± 3.5 23.7 ± 3.5 2010 –1.3 –1.1 –0.8 –0.9 2020 –1.7 –1.4 –1.0 –0.6 2030 –2.3 –1.3 –1.4 0.0 –1.8 –0.4 –1.4 0.9 2040 –2.6 –1.2 –1.7 0.5 2050 –3.0 –1.5 –1.9 0.9 2060 –3.7 –1.9 –2.0 1.5 2070 –4.4 –2.4 –2.5 1.8 2080 –5.0 –2.9 –3.1 1.9 2090 –5.0 –3.1 –3.5 1.9 2100 –5.2 –3.2 –4.0 2.0 –4.3 –2.5 –4.0 3.1 (continued on next page)

### 1440 Table AII.7.3 | (continued) 

### Central Eurasia CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 38.7 ± 5.3 38.7 ± 5.3 38.7 ± 5.3 38.7 ± 5.3 32.5 ± 6.2 32.5 ± 6.2 32.5 ± 6.2 32.5 ± 6.2 2010 –0.6 –0.6 –0.6 –0.5 2020 –1.6 –1.2 –1.2 0.5 2030 –3.2 –1.3 –1.4 1.4 –1.9 –0.1 –0.3 1.8 2040 –4.5 –1.9 –1.7 1.6 2050 –5.7 –2.9 –2.2 1.8 2060 –7.2 –4.2 –3.0 2.8 2070 –9.1 –5.4 –4.3 3.0 2080 –10.6 –6.5 –6.0 2.9 2090 –11.2 –6.8 –7.2 2.6 2100 –11.5 –7.0 –8.1 2.6 –8.5 –3.8 –5.6 4.3



### Europe CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 40.4 ± 6.0 40.4 ± 6.0 40.4 ± 6.0 40.4 ± 6.0 33.6 ± 5.2 33.6 ± 5.2 33.6 ± 5.2 33.6 ± 5.2 2010 –0.4 –0.5 –0.5 –0.4 2020 –1.5 –1.3 –1.2 0.3 2030 –3.2 –1.7 –1.7 1.1 –1.6 0.6 –0.4 2.3 2040 –4.6 –2.4 –2.3 1.4 2050 –6.1 –3.5 –3.0 1.8 2060 –8.0 –4.9 –4.1 2.4 2070 –10.4 –6.3 –5.8 2.6 2080 –12.2 –7.6 –7.6 2.3 2090 –13.0 –8.0 –9.2 2.1 2100 –13.4 –8.1 –10.3 2.0 –9.4 –3.5 –7.2 4.9



### East Asia CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 46.3 ± 4.9 46.3 ± 4.9 46.3 ± 4.9 46.3 ± 4.9 41.0 ± 5.5 41.0 ± 5.5 41.0 ± 5.5 41.0 ± 5.5 2010 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.1 2020 –0.1 0.8 –0.1 2.7 2030 –2.3 0.5 0.4 3.8 –1.8 1.0 0.4 3.2 2040 –3.9 –0.9 1.1 3.8 2050 –5.8 –3.3 1.0 3.7 2060 –8.0 –5.4 0.2 3.9 2070 –10.2 –7.3 –1.6 3.6 2080 –12.1 –8.8 –4.0 3.3 2090 –13.2 –9.4 –6.3 2.9 2100 –13.9 –9.6 –8.0 2.8 –11.4 –5.9 –6.6 4.6 (continued on next page)

### 1441 Table AII.7.3 | (continued) 

### Middle East CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 45.9 ± 3.1 45.9 ± 3.1 45.9 ± 3.1 45.9 ± 3.1 45.7 ± 5.4 45.7 ± 5.4 45.7 ± 5.4 45.7 ± 5.4 2010 –0.4 0.5 –0.7 0.5 2020 –1.5 0.4 –1.4 2.5 2030 –3.3 0.6 –1.6 3.8 –2.8 0.9 –1.1 4.1 2040 –3.6 0.2 –2.0 4.4 2050 –4.6 –0.9 –2.6 4.7 2060 –6.0 –2.7 –3.5 5.2 2070 –8.1 –4.9 –4.2 5.1 2080 –9.9 –7.1 –5.9 5.1 2090 –11.3 –8.4 –8.2 4.8 2100 –12.4 –9.0 –9.9 4.6 –11.7 –7.5 –9.8 5.0



### North America CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 40.7 ± 5.1 40.7 ± 5.1 40.7 ± 5.1 40.7 ± 5.1 34.3 ± 5.5 34.3 ± 5.5 34.3 ± 5.5 34.3 ± 5.5 2010 –0.9 –1.2 –0.6 –1.0 2020 –2.1 –2.4 –1.4 –0.5 2030 –4.3 –2.8 –1.8 0.1 –2.5 –0.7 –0.8 1.3 2040 –5.7 –3.6 –2.5 0.3 2050 –7.2 –4.6 –3.1 0.6 2060 –9.1 –5.8 –4.4 1.0 2070 –11.4 –7.1 –6.2 1.2 2080 –13.2 –8.3 –8.1 1.2 2090 –13.8 –8.5 –9.6 1.0 2100 –14.1 –8.8 –10.9 0.9 –10.5 –4.7 –8.7 3.4



### South America CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 25.3 ± 4.2 25.3 ± 4.2 25.3 ± 4.2 25.3 ± 4.2 23.7 ± 3.9 23.7 ± 3.9 23.7 ± 3.9 23.7 ± 3.9 2010 –1.4 –0.6 –1.2 –0.3 2020 –2.1 –1.2 –1.8 0.3 2030 –2.9 –1.2 –2.1 0.6 –2.3 –0.6 –1.8 1.2 2040 –2.9 –1.3 –2.3 1.1 2050 –3.2 –1.7 –2.6 1.3 2060 –3.6 –2.5 –2.9 1.5 2070 –4.3 –3.6 –3.5 1.5 2080 –5.1 –4.5 –4.2 1.1 2090 –5.5 –5.0 –4.7 0.7 2100 –5.7 –5.2 –5.3 0.4 –5.0 –4.0 –5.2 2.0 (continued on next page)

### 1442 Table AII.7.3 | (continued) 

### South Asia CMIP5 ACCMIP Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 34.4 ± 3.9 34.4 ± 3.9 34.4 ± 3.9 34.4 ± 3.9 33.7 ± 4.6 33.7 ± 4.6 33.7 ± 4.6 33.7 ± 4.6 2010 1.3 0.9 –0.1 1.3 2020 1.4 1.6 –0.2 3.1 2030 0.7 2.7 –0.1 3.9 0.6 2.3 –0.4 4.6 2040 0.6 2.8 0.3 4.0 2050 0.4 1.6 0.4 3.6 2060 –0.5 –0.7 0.3 3.2 2070 –2.0 –3.2 –0.5 2.9 2080 –3.9 –5.7 –2.0 2.7 2090 –5.7 –6.7 –3.3 2.2 2100 –7.1 –7.3 –4.5 1.9 –7.2 –6.1 –4.5 3.6

(continued on next page) Notes: See notes for Table AII.7.1. For definition of regions, see Figure 11.23 and Fiore et al. (2012).



### Table AII.7.4 | Surface particulate matter change (log 10

### [PM 2.5

### (microgram/m 3

### )]) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions 

### Africa Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 1.17 ± 0.23 2030 0.00 0.04 –0.01 0.01 2050 –0.02 –0.02 0.01 2100 0.00 –0.01 –0.03 –0.02



### Australia Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 0.65 ± 0.32 2030 –0.04 0.03 –0.01 0.01 2050 –0.06 –0.02 –0.04 2100 0.00 0.00 –0.03 –0.01



### Central Eurasia Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 0.59 ± 0.17 2030 –0.07 –0.01 –0.05 –0.06 2050 –0.12 –0.08 –0.09 2100 –0.13 –0.11 –0.11 –0.12



### Europe Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 0.81 ± 0.09 2030 –0.20 –0.10 –0.13 –0.24 2050 –0.31 –0.25 –0.33 2100 –0.32 –0.28 –0.37 –0.38

### 1443 Table AII.7.4 | (continued) 

### East Asia Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 1.04 ± 0.16 2030 –0.04 –0.02 0.01 0.01 2050 –0.24 0.07 –0.17 2100 –0.31 –0.33 –0.21 –0.30



### Middle East Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 1.10 ± 0.27 2030 –0.06 –0.02 –0.05 –0.03 2050 –0.08 –0.06 –0.03 2100 –0.11 –0.11 –0.10 –0.12



### North America Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 0.51 ± 0.15 2030 –0.16 –0.10 –0.10 –0.15 2050 –0.20 –0.16 –0.17 2100 –0.20 –0.19 –0.24 –0.21



### South America Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 0.71 ± 0.11 2030 –0.05 –0.04 –0.04 –0.03 2050 –0.10 –0.05 –0.07 2100 –0.11 –0.11 –0.09 –0.12



### South Asia Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2000 1.02 ± 0.11 2030 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.05 2050 –0.05 0.07 0.00 2100 –0.16 –0.24 –0.06 –0.11 Notes: Decadal average of the log 10[PM 2.5] values are given only where results include at least four models from either ACCMIP or CMIP5. Results are from A. Fiore and V. Naik based on Fiore et al. (2012) using the CMIP5/ACCMIP archive. Due to the very large systematic spread across models, the statistics were calculated for the log values, but Figure 11.23 shows statistics for direct PM 2.5values. Owing to the large spatial variations no global average is given. Model mean and standard deviation are shown for year 2000; differences in log10[PM 2.5] are shown for 2030, 2050 and 2100. See notes for Table AII.7.3 and Figure 11.23 for regions; see also Chapter 11, ES.

### 1444 Table AII.7.5 | CMIP5 (RCP) and CMIP3 (SRES A1B) global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative to 1986–2005 reference period. Results here are a statistical sum

mary of the spread in the CMIP ensembles for each of the scenarios. They do not account for model biases and model dependencies, and the percentiles do not correspond to the assessed uncertainty in Chapters 11 (11.3.6.3) and 12 (12.4.1). The statistical spread across models cannot be interpreted as uncertainty ranges or in terms of calibrated language (Section 12.2). 

### RCP2.6 RCP4.5 Years 5% 17% 50% 83% 95% 5% 17% 50% 83% 95% 1850–1990 –0.61 –0.61 1986–2005 0.00 0.00

2010d 0.19 0.33 0.36 0.52 0.62 0.22 0.26 0.36 0.48 0.59 2020d 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.81 1.07 0.39 0.48 0.59 0.74 0.83 2030d 0.47 0.56 0.74 1.02 1.24 0.56 0.69 0.82 1.10 1.22 2040d 0.51 0.68 0.88 1.25 1.50 0.64 0.86 1.04 1.35 1.57 2050d 0.49 0.71 0.94 1.37 1.65 0.84 1.05 1.24 1.63 1.97 2060d 0.36 0.69 0.93 1.48 1.71 0.90 1.13 1.44 1.90 2.19 2070d 0.20 0.70 0.89 1.49 1.71 0.98 1.20 1.54 2.07 2.32 2080d 0.15 0.62 0.94 1.44 1.79 0.98 1.27 1.62 2.25 2.54 2090d 0.18 0.58 0.94 1.53 1.79 1.06 1.33 1.68 2.29 2.59



### RCP6.0 RCP8.5 Years 5% 17% 50% 83% 95% 5% 17% 50% 83% 95% 1850–1990 –0.61 –0.61 1986–2005 0.00 0.00

2010d 0.21 0.26 0.36 0.47 0.64 0.23 0.29 0.37 0.47 0.62 2020d 0.33 0.40 0.55 0.70 0.90 0.37 0.51 0.66 0.84 0.99 2030d 0.40 0.59 0.74 0.92 1.17 0.65 0.77 0.94 1.29 1.39 2040d 0.59 0.73 0.95 1.21 1.41 0.93 1.13 1.29 1.68 1.77 2050d 0.69 0.92 1.15 1.52 1.81 1.20 1.48 1.70 2.19 2.37 2060d 0.88 1.08 1.32 1.78 2.18 1.55 1.88 2.16 2.74 2.99 2070d 1.08 1.28 1.58 2.14 2.52 1.96 2.25 2.60 3.31 3.61 2080d 1.33 1.56 1.81 2.58 2.88 2.31 2.65 3.05 3.93 4.22 2090d 1.51 1.72 2.03 2.92 3.24 2.63 2.96 3.57 4.45 4.81



### SRES A1B Years 5% 17% 50% 83% 95% 1850–1990 –0.61 1986–2005 0.00

2010d 0.15 0.22 0.34 0.44 0.62 2020d 0.27 0.37 0.52 0.76 0.91 2030d 0.47 0.59 0.82 1.04 1.38 2040d 0.65 0.90 1.11 1.36 1.79 2050d 0.92 1.14 1.55 1.65 2.14 2060d 1.12 1.40 1.75 1.98 2.67 2070d 1.40 1.60 2.14 2.39 3.12 2080d 1.61 1.80 2.30 2.75 3.47 2090d 1.76 1.96 2.54 3.05 3.84 Notes: This spread in the model ensembles (as shown in Figures 11.26a and 12.5, and discussed in Section 11.3.6) is not a measure of uncertainty. For the AR5 assessment of global mean surface temperature changes and uncertainties see: Section 11.3.6.3 and Figure 11.25 for the near-term (2016–2035) temperatures; and Section 12.4.1 and Tables 12.2–3 for the long term (2081–2100). See discussion about uncertainty and ensembles in Section 12.2, which explains how model spread is not equivalent to uncertainty. Results here are shown for the CMIP5 archive (Annex I, frozen as of March 15, 2013) for the RCPs and the similarly current CMIP3 archive for SRES A1B, which is not the same set of models used in AR4 (Figure SPM.5). Ten-year averages are shown (2030d= 2026–2035). Temperature changes are relative to the reference period (1986–2005, defined as zero in this table), using CMIP5 for all four RCPs (G. J. van Oldenborgh, http://climexp.knmi.nl/t; see Annex I for listing of models included) and CMIP3 for SRES A1B (22 models). The warming from early instrumental record (1850–1900) to the modern reference period (1986–2005) is derived from HadCRUT4 observations as 0.61°C (C. Morice; see Chapter 2 and Table AII.1.3).

### 1445 Table AII.7.7 | Global mean sea level rise (m) with respect to 1986–2005 at 1 January on the years indicated. Values shown as median and likely range; see Section 13.5.1. 

### Year SRES A1B RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2007 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 2010 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 2020 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.11] 2030 0.12 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.13 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.13 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.12 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.13 [0.10 to 0.17] 2040 0.17 [0.13 to 0.22] 0.17 [0.13 to 0.22] 0.17 [0.13 to 0.22] 0.17 [0.12 to 0.21] 0.19 [0.14 to 0.24] 2050 0.23 [0.17 to 0.30] 0.22 [0.16 to 0.28] 0.23 [0.17 to 0.29] 0.22 [0.16 to 0.28] 0.25 [0.19 to 0.32] 2060 0.30 [0.21 to 0.38] 0.26 [0.18 to 0.35] 0.28 [0.21 to 0.37] 0.27 [0.19 to 0.35] 0.33 [0.24 to 0.42] 2070 0.37 [0.26 to 0.48] 0.31 [0.21 to 0.41] 0.35 [0.25 to 0.45] 0.33 [0.24 to 0.43] 0.42 [0.31 to 0.54] 2080 0.44 [0.31 to 0.58] 0.35 [0.24 to 0.48] 0.41 [0.28 to 0.54] 0.40 [0.28 to 0.53] 0.51 [0.37 to 0.67] 2090 0.52 [0.36 to 0.69] 0.40 [0.26 to 0.54] 0.47 [0.32 to 0.62] 0.47 [0.33 to 0.63] 0.62 [0.45 to 0.81] 2100 0.60 [0.42 to 0.80] 0.44 [0.28 to 0.61] 0.53 [0.36 to 0.71] 0.55 [0.38 to 0.73] 0.74 [0.53 to 0.98] 

### Years A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a A1B

PI* –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 1990 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.16 2010 0.30 0.40 0.32 0.35 0.34 0.39 0.27 0.30 2020 0.52 0.71 0.55 0.50 0.55 0.66 0.43 0.52 2030 0.85 1.03 0.85 0.73 0.77 0.93 0.61 0.85 2040 1.26 1.41 1.27 1.06 0.98 1.18 0.80 1.26 2050 1.59 1.75 1.86 1.42 1.21 1.44 1.00 1.59 2060 1.97 2.04 2.50 1.85 1.44 1.69 1.26 1.97 2070 2.30 2.25 3.10 2.33 1.63 1.94 1.52 2.30 2080 2.56 2.41 3.64 2.81 1.79 2.20 1.79 2.56 2090 2.77 2.49 4.09 3.29 1.91 2.44 2.08 2.77 2100 2.95 2.54 4.49 3.79 1.98 2.69 2.38 2.95 

### Table AII.7.6 | Global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative to 1990 from the TAR

Notes: Single-year estimates of mean surface air temperature warming relative to the reference period 1990 for the SRES scenarios evaluated in the TAR. The pre-industrial estimates are for 1750, and all results are based on a simple climate model. See TAR Appendix II.