ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY CONSERVATION

STANDARDS FOR COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EA.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1

EA.2 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................... 1

EA.3 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................... 2

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................... 3

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ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY CONSERVATION

STANDARDS FOR COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT

EA.1 INTRODUCTION

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will conduct an environmental assessment as part

of the Notice of Public Rulemaking for commercial refrigeration equipment. DOE will assess

the impacts of proposed energy efficiency standards levels on certain environmental indicators

using a variant of the U.S. DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy

Modeling System (NEMS).a DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce the EIA 2007 Annual Energy

1 Outlook (AEO2007). DOE will use a variant known as NEMS­BT to provide key inputs to the

analysis. Results of the environmental analysis are similar to those provided in AEO2007.

DOE intends the environmental assessment to provide emissions results to policymakers

and interveners, and to fulfill requirements that the environmental effects of all new Federal rules

be properly quantified and considered. The environmental assessment considers two pollutants,

sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), as well as carbon emissions. The only form of

carbon emissions tracked by NEMS­BT is of carbon dioxide (CO2), so the carbon discussed in

this report is only in the form of CO2. For each of the standard levels, DOE will calculate total

emissions using NEMS­BT, with external analysis used as needed.

DOE will conduct the environmental assessment as a policy deviation from the

AEO2007, using the same basic set of assumptions. For example, the emissions characteristics

of an electricity generating plant will be exactly those used in AEO2007. The NEMS reference

case and alternative growth scenarios are as described in the utility impact analysis (chapter 13

of the Technical Support Document (TSD)).

EA.2 METHODOLOGY

The NEMS­BT tracks carbon emissions using a detailed carbon module; this approach

provides good results because of its broad coverage of all sectors and inclusion of interactive

effects. Past experience with carbon results from NEMS suggests that the NEMS­generated

emissions estimates are somewhat lower than estimates based on simple average factors. One of

the reasons for this divergence is that NEMS tends to predict that conservation displaces

renewable generating capacity in the later years of its forecast. On the whole, NEMS­BT

provides carbon emissions results of reasonable accuracy, at a level consistent with other

published Federal results.

a For more information on NEMS, please refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information

Administration documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000,

DOE/EIA­0581(2000), March 2000. EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of

the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications

and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on EIA assumptions, we refer to it as

NEMS­BT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program). NEMS­BT was previously called NEMS­BRS.

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The NEMS­BT model reports the two airborne pollutant emissions that DOE has reported

in past analyses, SO2 and NOx. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 set an SO2 emissions

cap on all power generation. The attainment of this target, however, is flexible among generators

through the use of emissions allowances and tradable permits. The NEMS­BT model includes a

module for SO2 allowance trading and delivers a forecast of SO2 allowance prices. Accurate

simulation of SO2 trading tends to imply that physical emissions effects will be zero, as long as

emissions are at the ceiling.

However, there may be an SO2 benefit from conservation in the form of a lower

allowance price as a result of additional allowances generated from this rule, and, if it is big

enough to be calculable by NEMS­BT, DOE will report this value. The NEMS­BT model also

has an algorithm for estimating NOx emissions from power generation. Two recent regulatory

actions proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency regarding regulations and guidelines

for best available retrofit technology determinations and the reduction of interstate transport of

fine particulate matter and ozone are tending toward further NOx reductions and will likely lead

to an eventual emissions cap on nationwide NOx. (69 FR 25184 (May 5, 2004) and 69 FR 32684

(June 10, 2004)) As with SO2 emissions, a cap on NOx emissions will likely result in no physical

emissions effects from equipment efficiency standards. However, there is an NOx benefit from

conservation in the form of a lower allowance price as a result of additional allowances from this

rule, and, if it is big enough to be calculable by NEMS­BT, DOE will report this value.

EA.3 RESULTS

The results for the environmental analysis are similar to a complete NEMS run, as

published in the AEO2007. These include power sector emissions for SO2, NOx, and carbon, and

SO2 prices, in five­year forecasted increments extrapolated to the year 2035. DOE reports the

outcome of the analysis for each trial standard level as a deviation from the AEO2007 reference

case results.

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REFERENCES

EIA (Energy Information Administration). 2007. Annual Energy Outlook 2007. EIA,

Washington, D.C., DOE/EIA­0554 (2007).

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