1395

AII

Editorial Team:

Michael Prather (USA), Gregory Flato (Canada), Pierre Friedlingstein (UK/Belgium), Christopher 

Jones (UK), Jean-François Lamarque (USA), Hong Liao (China), Philip Rasch (USA)

Contributors:

Olivier Boucher (France), François-Marie Bréon (France), Tim Carter (Finland), William Collins 

(UK), Frank J. Dentener (EU/Netherlands), Edward J. Dlugokencky (USA), Jean-Louis Dufresne 

(France), Jan Willem Erisman (Netherlands), Veronika Eyring (Germany), Arlene M. Fiore 

(USA), James Galloway (USA), Jonathan M. Gregory (UK), Ed Hawkins (UK), Chris Holmes 

(USA), Jasmin John (USA), Tim Johns (UK), Fiona Lo (USA), Natalie Mahowald (USA), Malte 

Meinshausen (Germany), Colin Morice (UK), Vaishali Naik (USA/India), Drew Shindell (USA), 

Steven J. Smith (USA), David Stevenson (UK), Peter W. Thorne (USA/Norway/UK), Geert Jan 

van Oldenborgh (Netherlands), Apostolos Voulgarakis (UK/Greece), Oliver Wild (UK), Donald 

Wuebbles (USA), Paul Young (UK)

Annex II: Climate System 

Scenario Tables

This annex should be cited as:

IPCC, 2013: Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables [Prather, M., G. Flato, P. Friedlingstein, C. Jones, J.-F. Lamarque, 

H. Liao and P. Rasch (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to 

the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. 

Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 

United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
1396

AII

Table of Contents

Introduction ................................................................................ 1397

Chemical Abbreviations and Symbols ................................. 1397

List of Tables................................................................................ 1398

References ................................................................................ 1400

Tables ........................................................................................ 1401

AII.1: Historical Climate System Data ......................................... 1401

AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions.................................................. 1410

AII.3: Natural Emissions ............................................................. 1421

AII.4: Abundances of the Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases........... 1422

AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes.................... 1428

AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing ................................................ 1433

AII.7: Environmental Data .......................................................... 1437
1397

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

1 A few HFCs and HCFCs are very short lived in the atmosphere and therefore not well mixed.

Introduction

Annex II presents, in tabulated form, data related to historical and projected changes in the climate system that are assessed in the chapters of this report (see Section 1.6). It also includes some comparisons 

with the Third Assessment Report (TAR) and Fourth Assessment Report 

(AR4) results. These data include values for emissions into the atmosphere, atmospheric abundances and burdens (integrated abundance), 

effective radiative forcing (ERF; includes adjusted forcing from aerosols, see Chapters 7 and 8), and global mean surface temperatures and 

sea level. Projections from 2010 to 2100 focus on the RCP scenarios 

(Moss et al., 2010; Lamarque et al., 2010; 2011; Meinshausen et al., 

2011a; van Vuuren et al., 2011; see also Chapters 1, 6, 8, 11, 12 and 

13). Projections also include previous IPCC scenarios (IPCC Scenarios 

1992a (IS92a), Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1, 

TAR Appendix II) and some alternative near-term scenarios for methane (CH4) and short-lived pollutants that impact climate or air quality. 

Emissions from biomass burning are included as anthropogenic. ERF 

from land use change is also included in some tables.

Where uncertainties or ranges are presented here, they are noted in 

each table as being a recommended value or model ensemble mean/

median with a 68% confidence interval (16 to 84%, ±1σ for a normal 

distribution) or 90% confidence interval (5 to 95%, ±1.645σ for a 

normal distribution) or statistics (standard deviation, percentiles, or 

minimum/maximum) of an ensemble of models. In some cases these 

are a formal evaluation of uncertainty as assessed in the chapters, but 

in other cases (specifically Tables AII.2.1, 3.1, 4.1, 5.1, 6.10, 7.1 to 7.5) 

they just describe the statistical results from the available models, and 

the referenced chapters must be consulted for the assessed uncertainty 

or confidence level of these results. In the case of Table AII.7.5, for 

example, the global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative 

to 1986–2005 is a statistical summary of the spread in the Coupled 

Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles for each of the scenarios: model biases and model dependencies are not accounted for; 

the percentiles do not correspond to the assessed uncertainty derived 

in Chapters 11 (Section 11.3.6.3) and 12 (Section 12.4.1); and statistical spread across models cannot be interpreted in terms of calibrated 

language (Section 12.2).

The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for emissions include only anthropogenic sources and use a single model to 

project from emissions to abundances to radiative forcing to climate 

change (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; 2011b). We include projected 

changes in natural carbon dioxide (CO2) sources and sinks for 2010–

2100 based on this assessment (Chapters 6 and 12). Present-day natural and anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O) are 

assessed and used to scale the RCP anthropogenic emissions to be consistent with these best estimates (Chapters 6 and 11). Current model 

evaluations of atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle, including 

results from the CMIP5 and Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model 

Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) projects, are used to project future 

composition and ERF separately from the RCP model (see Sections 

6.4.3, 11.3.5 and 12.3). Thus, projected changes in greenhouse gases 

(GHGs), aerosols and ERF evaluated in this report may differ from the 

published RCPs and from what was used in the CMIP5 runs, and these 

are denoted RCP&. The CMIP5 climate projections used for the most 

part the RCP concentration pathways for well-mixed greenhouse gases 

(WMGHG) and the emissions pathways for ozone (O3) and aerosol precursors. Such differences are discussed in the relevant chapters and 

noted in the tables.

For each species, the abundances (given as dry air mole fraction: ppm 

= micromoles per mole (10–6); ppb = nanomoles per mole (10–9); and 

ppt = picomoles per mole (10–12)), burdens (global total in grams, 1 Tg 

= 1012 g), average column amount (1 Dobson Unit (DU) = 2.687 × 1016

molecules per cm2), AOD (mean aerosol optical depth at 550 nm), ERF 

(effective radiative forcing, W m–2), and other climate system quantities 

are calculated for scenarios using methodologies based on the latest 

climate chemistry and climate carbon models (see Chapters 2, 6, 7, 

8, 10, 11 and 12). Results are shown for individual years (e.g., 2010 

= year 2010) and decadal averages (e.g., 2020d = average of years 

2016 through 2025), although some 10-year periods are different, see 

table notes. Year 2011 is the last year for observed quantities (denoted 

2011* or 2011obs). Results are shown as global mean values except 

for environmental data focussing on air quality (Tables AII.7.1–AII.7.4), 

which give regional mean surface abundances of O3 and fine particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). Results for global 

mean surface temperature (Tables AII.7.5 and AII.7.6) show only raw 

CMIP5 data or data from previous assessments. For best estimates of 

near-term and long-term temperature change see Chapters 11 and 12, 

respectively. Results for global mean sea level rise (Table AII.7.7) are 

assessed values with uncertainties described in Chapter 13.

Chemical Abbreviations and Symbols

Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases (WMGHG)

CO2 carbon dioxide (KP, Kyoto Protocol gas)

CH4 methane (KP)

N2O nitrous oxide (KP)

HFC hydrofluorocarbon1 (a class of compounds: HFC-32, HFC134a, ...) (KP)

PFC perfluorocarbon (a class of compounds: CF4, C2F6, ...) (KP)

SF6 sulphur hexafluoride (KP)

NF3 nitrogen trifluoride (KP)

CFC chlorofluorocarbon (a class of compounds: CFCl3, CF2Cl2, ...) 

(MP, Montreal Protocol gas)

HCFC hydrochlorofluorocarbon1 (a class of compounds: HCFC-22, 

HCFC-141b, ...) (MP)

CCl4 carbon tetrachloride (MP)

CH3CCl3 methyl chloroform (MP)
1398

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Ozone and Aerosols, and their Precursors

O3 ozone (both stratospheric and tropospheric)

NOx sum of NO (nitric oxide) and NO2 (nitrogen dioxide)

NH3 ammonia

CO carbon monoxide

NMVOC a class of compounds comprising all non-methane volatile 

organic compounds (i.e., hydrocarbons that may also contain 

oxygen, also known as biogenic VOC or NMHC)

OH hydroxyl radical

PM2.5 any aerosols with diameter less than 2.5 μm

BC black carbon aerosol

OC organic carbon aerosol

SO2 sulphur dioxide, a gas

SOx oxidized sulphur in gaseous form, including SO2

SO4

= sulphate ion, usually as sulphuric acid or ammonium sulphate in aerosol

List of Tables

AII.1: Historical Climate System Data

Table AII.1.1a: Historical abundances of the Kyoto greenhouse gases

Table AII.1.1b: Historical abundances of the Montreal Protocol greenhouse gas (all ppt)

Table AII.1.2: Historical effective radiative forcing (ERF) (W m–2), 

including land use change (LUC)

Table AII.1.3: Historical global decadal-mean global surface-air 

temperature (°C) relative to 1961–1990 average

AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions

Table AII.2.1a: Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and 

other industrial sources (FF) (PgC yr–1)

Table AII.2.1b: Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from agriculture, forestry,

land use (AFOLU) (PgC yr–1)

Table AII.2.1c: Anthropogenic total CO2 emissions (PgC yr–1)

Table AII.2.2: Anthropogenic CH4 emissions (Tg yr–1)

Table AII.2.3: Anthropogenic N2O emissions (TgN yr–1)

Table AII.2.4: Anthropogenic SF6 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.5: Anthropogenic CF4 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.6: Anthropogenic C2F6 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.7: Anthropogenic C6F14 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.8: Anthropogenic HFC-23 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.9: Anthropogenic HFC-32 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.10: Anthropogenic HFC-125 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.11: Anthropogenic HFC-134a emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.12: Anthropogenic HFC-143a emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.13: Anthropogenic HFC-227ea emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.14: Anthropogenic HFC-245fa emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.15: Anthropogenic HFC-43-10mee emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.16: Anthropogenic CO emissions (Tg yr–1)

Table AII.2.17: Anthropogenic NMVOC emissions (Tg yr–1)

Table AII.2.18: Anthropogenic NOX emissions (TgN yr–1)

Table AII.2.19: Anthropogenic NH3 emissions (TgN yr–1)

Table AII.2.20: Anthropogenic SOX emissions (TgS yr–1)

Table AII.2.21: Anthropogenic OC aerosols emissions (Tg yr–1)

Table AII.2.22: Anthropogenic BC aerosols emissions (Tg yr–1)

Table AII.2.23: Anthropogenic nitrogen fixation (Tg-N yr–1)

AII.3: Natural Emissions

Table AII.3.1a: Net land (natural and land use) CO2 emissions (PgC 

yr–1)

Table AII.3.1b: Net ocean CO2 emissions (PgC yr–1)

AII.4: Abundances of the Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases

Table AII.4.1: CO2 abundance (ppm)

Table AII.4.2: CH4 abundance (ppb)

Table AII.4.3: N2O abundance (ppb)

Table AII.4.4: SF6 abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.5: CF4 abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.6: C2F6 abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.7: C6F14 abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.8: HFC-23 abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.9: HFC-32 abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.10: HFC-125 abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.11: HFC-134a abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.12: HFC-143a abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.13: HFC-227ea abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.14: HFC-245fa abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.15: HFC-43-10mee abundance (ppt)

Table AII.4.16: Montreal Protocol greenhouse gas abundances (ppt)

AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes

Table AII.5.1: Stratospheric O3 column changes (DU)

Table AII.5.2: Tropospheric O3 column changes (DU)

Table AII.5.3: Total aerosol optical depth (AOD)

Table AII.5.4: Absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD)

Table AII.5.5: Sulphate aerosol atmospheric burden (TgS)

Table AII.5.6: OC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg)

Table AII.5.7: BC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg)

Table AII.5.8: CH4 atmospheric lifetime (yr) against loss by tropospheric OH

Table AII.5.9: N2O atmospheric lifetime (yr)

AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing

Table AII.6.1: ERF from CO2 (W m–2)

Table AII.6.2: ERF from CH4 (W m–2)

Table AII.6.3: ERF from N2O (W m–2)

Table AII.6.4: ERF from all HFCs (W m–2)

Table AII.6.5: ERF from all PFCs and SF6 (W m–2)

Table AII.6.6: ERF from Montreal Protocol greenhouse gases (W m–2)

Table AII.6.7a: ERF from stratospheric O3 changes since 1850 (W m–2)

Table AII.6.7b: ERF from tropospheric O3 changes since 1850 (W m–2)

Table AII.6.8: Total anthropogenic ERF from published RCPs and SRES 

(W m–2)

Table AII.6.9: ERF components relative to 1850 (W m–2) derived from 

ACCMIP

Table AII.6.10: Total anthropogenic plus natural ERF (W m–2) from 

CMIP5 and CMIP3, including historical
1399

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

AII.7: Environmental Data

Table AII.7.1: Global mean surface O3 change (ppb)

Table AII.7.2: Surface O3 change (ppb) for HTAP regions

Table AII.7.3: Surface O3 change (ppb) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for 

continental regions

Table AII.7.4: Surface particulate matter change (log10[PM2.5

(microgram/m3)]) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions

Table AII.7.5: CMIP5 (RCP) and CMIP3 (SRES A1B) global mean surface 

temperature change (°C) relative to 1986–2005 reference period

Table AII.7.6: Global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative 

to 1990 from the TAR

Table AII.7.7: Global mean sea level rise (m) with respect to 1986–

2005 at 1 January on the years indicated
1400

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

References

Calvin, K., et al., 2012: The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the 

Asia modeling exercise. Energy Econ., 34, S251–S260.

Cionni, I., V. Eyring, J. Lamarque, W. Randel, D. Stevenson, F. Wu, G. Bodeker, T. 

Shepherd, D. Shindell, and D. Waugh, 2011: Ozone database in support of CMIP5 

simulations: Results and corresponding radiative forcing. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 

11, 11267–11292.

Cofala, J., M. Amann, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, and L. Hoglund-Isaksson, 2007: 

Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 

2030. Atmos. Environ., 41, 8486–8499.

Dentener, F., D. Stevenson, J. Cofala, R. Mechler, M. Amann, P. Bergamaschi, F. Raes, 

and R. Derwent, 2005: The impact of air pollutant and methane emission 

controls on tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing: CTM calculations for the 

period 1990-2030. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1731–1755.

Dentener, F., et al., 2006: The global atmospheric environment for the next 

generation. Environ. Sci. Technol., 40, 3586–3594.

Douglass, A. and V. Fioletov, 2010: Stratospheric Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet 

Radiation in Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010. Global Ozone 

Research and Monitoring Project-Report No. 52.World Meteorological 

Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. 

Erisman, J. W., M. A. Sutton, J. Galloway, Z. Klimont, and W. Winiwarter, 2008: How a 

century of ammonia synthesis changed the world. Nature Geosci., 1, 636–639.

Eyring, V., et al., 2013: Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in 

CMIP5 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1002/jgrd.50316.

Fiore, A. M., et al., 2012: Global air quality and climate. Chem. Soc. Rev., 41, 6663–

6683.

Fleming, E., C. Jackman, R. Stolarski and A. Douglass, 2011: A model study of the 

impact of source gas changes on the stratosphere for 1850-2100. Atmos. Chem. 

Phys., 11, 8515–8541.

Forster, P. M., T. Andrews, P. Good, J. M. Gregory, L. S. Jackson, and M. Zelinka, 2013: 

Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios 

in the CMIP5 generation of climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 1139–1150.

Friedlingstein, P., et al., 2006: Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from 

the C4MIP model intercomparison. J. Clim., 19, 3337–3353.

Holmes, C. D., M. J. Prather, A.O. Søvde, and G. Myhre, 2013: Future methane, 

hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: Key climate and emission parameters for future 

predictions. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 285–302.

HTAP, 2010. Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution 2010, Part A: Ozone and 

Particulate Matter. United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland.

Jones, C. D., et al., 2013: 21st Century compatible CO2 emissions and airborne 

fraction simulated by CMIP5 Earth System models under 4 Representative 

Concentration Pathways. J. Clim., doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00554.1.

Lamarque, J. F., G. P. Kyle, M. Meinshausen, K. Riahi, S. J. Smith, D. P. Van Vuuren, A. J. 

Conley, and F. Vitt, 2011: Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiativelyactive gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Clim. 

Change, 109, 191–212.

Lamarque, J. F., et al., 2010: Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and 

biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and 

application. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039.

Lamarque, J. F., et al., 2013: The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model 

Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and description of models, 

simulations and climate diagnostics. Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206.

Meinshausen, M., T. M. L. Wigley, and S. C. B. Raper, 2011b: Emulating atmosphereocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6-Part 2: 

Applications. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1457–1471.

Meinshausen, M., et al., 2011a: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their 

extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim. Change, 109, 213–241.

Moss, R. H., et al., 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research 

and assessment. Nature, 463, 747–756.

Prather, M., et al., 2001: Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases. In: Climate 

Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third 

Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J. T. 

Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noquer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell 

and C. A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United 

Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 239–287.

Prather, M., et al., 2003: Fresh air in the 21st century? Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1100.

Prather, M. J., C. D. Holmes, and J. Hsu, 2012: Reactive greenhouse gas scenarios: 

Systematic exploration of uncertainties and the role of atmospheric chemistry. 

Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09803.

Rogelj, J., et al., 2011: Emission pathways consistent with a 2°C global temperature 

limit. Nature Clim. Change, 1, 413–418.

Shindell, D.T., J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, et al., 2013: Radiative forcing in 

the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 

2939–2974.

Stevenson, D. S., et al., 2013: Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and 

attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model 

Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085.

van Vuuren, D. P., et al., 2008: Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation 

scenarios. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 105, 15258–15262.

van Vuuren, D., et al., 2011: The representative concentration pathways: An overview. 

Clim. Change, 109, 5–31.

Voulgarakis, A., et al., 2013: Analysis of present day and future OH and methane 

lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations. 21 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587.

Wild, O., A.M. Fiore et al., 2012: Modelling future changes in surface ozone: A 

parameterized approach. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2037–2054.

WMO. 2010. Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010. Global Ozone Research 

and Monitoring Project—Report No. 52. World Meteorological Organization, 

Geneva, Switzerland. 

Young, P. J., et al., 2013: Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric 

ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison 

Project (ACCMIP). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090.
1401

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Year CO2 (ppm) CH4 (ppb) N2O (ppb)

PI* 278 ± 2 722 ± 25 270 ± 7

1755 276.7 723 272.8

1760 276.5 726 274.1

1765 276.6 730 274.2

1770 277.3 733 273.7

1775 278.0 736 273.1

1780 278.2 739 272.4

1785 278.6 742 271.9

1790 280.0 745 271.8

1795 281.4 748 272.1

1800 282.6 751 272.6

1805 283.6 755 272.1

1810 284.2 760 271.4

1815 284.0 765 271.5

1820 283.3 769 272.9

1825 283.1 774 274.1

1830 283.8 779 273.7

1835 283.9 784 270.5

1840 284.1 789 269.6

1845 285.8 795 270.3

1850 286.8 802 270.4

1855 286.4 808 270.6

1860 286.1 815 271.7

1865 286.3 823 272.3

1870 288.0 831 273.0

1875 289.4 839 274.7

1880 289.8 847 275.8

1885 290.9 856 277.2

1890 293.1 866 278.3

1895 295.4 877 277.7

1900 296.2 891 277.3

1905 297.4 912 279.2

1910 299.3 935 280.8

1915 301.1 961 282.7

1920 303.3 990 285.1

1925 304.7 1020 284.3

1930 306.6 1049 284.9

1935 308.4 1077 286.6

1940 310.4 1102 287.7

1945 310.9 1129 288.0

1950 311.2 1162 287.6

1955 313.4 1207 289.6

1956 314.0 1217 290.4

1957 314.6 1228 291.2

1958 315.3 1239 291.7

Year CO2 (ppm) CH4 (ppb) N2O (ppb)

PI* 278 ± 2 722 ± 25 270 ± 7

1959 316.0 1251 292.1

1960 316.7 1263 292.4

1961 317.4 1275 292.5

1962 318.0 1288 292.5

1963 318.5 1301 292.6

1964 319.0 319.0 292.6

1965 319.7 1328 292.7

1966 320.6 1343 292.9

1967 321.5 1357 293.3

1968 322.5 1372 293.8

1969 323.5 1388 294.4

1970 324.6 1403 295.2

1971 325.6 1419 296.0

1972 326.8 1435 296.9

1973 328.0 1451 297.8

1974 329.2 1467 298.4

1975 330.2 1483 299.0

1976 331.3 1500 299.4

1977 332.7 1516 299.8

1978 334.3 1532 300.2

1979 336.2 1549 300.7

1980 338.0 1567 301.3

1981 339.3 1587 302.0

1982 340.5 1607 303.0

1983 342.1 1626 303.9

1984 343.7 1643 304.5

1985 345.2 1657 305.5

1986 346.6 1670 305.9

1987 348.4 1682 306.3

1988 350.5 1694 306.7

1989 352.2 1704 307.8

1990 353.6 1714 308.7

1991 354.8 1725 309.3

1992 355.7 1733 309.8

1993 356.6 1738 310.1

1994 358.0 1743 310.4

1995 359.9 1747 311.0

1996 361.4 1751 311.8

1997 363.1 1757 312.7

1998 365.2 1765 313.7

1999 367.2 1771 314.7

2000 368.7 1773 315.6

2001 370.2 1773 316.3

2002 372.3 1774 317.0

Tables

AII.1: Historical Climate System Data

Table AII.1.1a | Historical abundances of the Kyoto greenhouse gases

(continued on next page)
1402

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.1.1a (continued)

Year SF6 (ppt) CF4 (ppt) C2F6 (ppt) C6F14 (ppt) NF3 (ppt)

PI* 0 35 0 0

1900 0 35 0 0

1910 0 35 0.1 0

1920 0 35 0.1 0

1930 0 36 0.2 0

1940 0 37 0.3 0

1950 0 39 0.5 0

1960 0.1 43 0.6 0

1970 0.3 51 0.8 0

1980 0.8 60 1.2 0

1990 2.4 68 1.9 0

2000 4.5 76 2.9 0

2005 5.6 75 3.7 0 0.3

2010 7.0 78.3 4.1 0

2011* 7.3 ± 0.1 79.0 4.2 0 0.6

Year HFC-23

(ppt)

HFC-32

(ppt)

HFC-125

(ppt)

HFC-134a

(ppt)

HFC-143a

(ppt)

HFC-227ea

(ppt)

HFC-245fa

(ppt)

HFC-43-10mee

(ppt)

PI* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1940 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1950 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1960 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1970 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1980 3.7 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0

1990 7.9 0 0.1 0 0.6 0 0 0

2000 14.8 0 1.3 14 3.1 0.1 0 0

2010 23.2 4.1 8.2 58 10.9 0.6 1.1 0

2011* 24.0 4.9 9.6 63 ± 1 12.0 0.65 1.24 0

Notes:

Abundances are mole fraction of dry air for the lower, well-mixed atmosphere (ppm = micromoles per mole, ppb = nanomoles per mole, ppt = picomoles per mole). Values refer to single-year 

average. Uncertainties (5 to 95% confidence intervals) are given for 2011 only when more than one laboratory reports global data. Pre-industrial (PI*, taken to be 1750 for GHG) and present day 

(2011*) abundances are from Chapter 2, Tables 2.1 and 2.SM.1; see also Chapter 6 for Holocene variability (10 ppm CO2, 40 ppb CH4, 10 ppb N2O). Intermediate data for CO2, CH4 and N2O are from 

Chapters 2 and 8, Figure 8.6. See also Appendix 1.A. Intermediate data for the F-gases are taken from Meinshausen et al. (2011).

Year CO2 (ppm) CH4 (ppb) N2O (ppb)

PI* 278 ± 2 722 ± 25 270 ± 7

2003 374.5 1776 317.6

2004 376.6 1776 318.3

2005 378.7 1776 319.1

2006 380.8 1776 319.8

2007 382.7 1781 320.6

2008 384.6 1787 321.4

2005 378.7 1776 319.1

2006 380.8 1776 319.8

2007 382.7 1781 320.6

2008 384.6 1787 321.4

2009 386.4 1792 322.3

2010 388.4 1798 323.2

2011* 390.5 ± 0.3 1803 ± 4 324 ± 1
1403

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.1.1b | Historical abundances of the Montreal Protocol greenhouse gases (all ppt)

Year CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl4 CH3CCl3 HCFC-22

PI* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1960 9.5 29.5 1.9 3.8 0.0 52.1 1.5 2.1

1965 23.5 58.8 3.1 5.0 0.0 64.4 4.7 4.9

1970 52.8 114.3 5.5 6.5 0.2 75.9 16.2 12.1

1975 106.1 203.1 10.4 8.3 0.6 85.5 40.0 23.8

1980 161.9 297.4 19.0 10.7 1.3 93.3 81.6 42.5

1985 205.4 381.2 37.3 12.9 2.8 99.6 106.1 62.7

1990 256.2 477.5 67.6 15.4 4.7 106.5 127.2 88.2

1995 267.4 523.8 83.6 16.1 6.8 103.2 110.3 113.6

2000 261.7 541.0 82.3 16.5 7.9 98.6 49.7 139.5

2005 251.6 542.7 78.8 16.6 8.3 93.7 20.1 165.5

2010 240.9 532.5 75.6 16.4 8.4 87.6 8.3 206.8

2011* 238 ± 1 528±2 74.3±0.5 15.8 8.4 86±2 6.4±0.4 213±2

Year HCFC-141b HCFC-142b Halon 1211 Halon 1202 Halon 1301 Halon 2402 CH3Br CH3Cl

PI* 0 0 0 0 0 0

1960 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.5 510

1965 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.7 528

1970 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.0 540

1975 0.0 0.2 0.12 0.01 0.04 0.06 7.4 546

1980 0.0 0.4 0.42 0.01 0.24 0.15 7.7 548

1985 0.0 0.7 1.04 0.02 0.74 0.26 8.2 549

1990 0.0 1.2 2.27 0.03 1.66 0.41 8.6 550

1995 2.7 6.3 3.34 0.04 2.63 0.52 9.2 550

2000 11.8 11.4 4.02 0.04 2.84 0.50 8.9 550

2005 17.5 15.1 4.26 0.02 3.03 0.48 7.9 550

2010 20.3 20.5 4.07 0.00 3.20 0.46 7.2 550

2011* 21.4±0.5 21.2±0.5 4.07 0.00 3.23 0.45 7.1 534

Notes:

See Table AII.1.1a. For present-day (2011*) see Chapter 2. Intermediate years are from Scenario A1, WMO Ozone Assessment (WMO, 2010).
1404

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.1.2 | Historical effective radiative forcing (ERF) (W m–2), including land use change (LUC)

Year CO2

GHG

Other*

O3

(Trop)

O3

(Strat)

Aerosol

(Total) LUC H2O(Strat)

BC

Snow

Con–

trails Solar Volcano

1750 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.001

1751 –0.023 0.004 0.000 0.000 –0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.014 0.000

1752 –0.024 0.006 0.001 0.000 –0.004 –0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.029 0.000

1753 –0.024 0.007 0.001 0.000 –0.005 –0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 –0.033 0.000

1754 –0.025 0.008 0.002 0.000 –0.007 –0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.043 0.000

1755 –0.026 0.010 0.002 0.000 –0.009 –0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.054 –0.664

1756 –0.026 0.011 0.003 0.000 –0.011 –0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.055 0.000

1757 –0.027 0.013 0.003 0.000 –0.013 –0.003 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.048 0.000

1758 –0.028 0.014 0.003 0.000 –0.014 –0.003 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.050 0.000

1759 –0.028 0.015 0.004 0.000 –0.016 –0.004 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.102 0.000

1760 –0.029 0.016 0.004 0.000 –0.018 –0.004 0.000 0.001 0.000 –0.112 –0.060

1761 –0.029 0.017 0.005 0.000 –0.020 –0.004 0.000 0.002 0.000 –0.016 –1.093

1762 –0.029 0.017 0.005 0.000 –0.021 –0.005 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.007 –0.300

1763 –0.029 0.018 0.006 0.000 –0.023 –0.005 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.018 –0.093

1764 –0.028 0.018 0.006 0.000 –0.025 –0.006 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.022 –0.021

1765 –0.026 0.018 0.006 0.000 –0.027 –0.006 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.054 –0.003

1766 –0.024 0.018 0.007 0.000 –0.029 –0.006 0.001 0.002 0.000 –0.048 0.000

1767 –0.022 0.018 0.007 0.000 –0.030 –0.007 0.001 0.003 0.000 –0.036 0.000

1768 –0.020 0.018 0.008 0.000 –0.032 –0.007 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.016 0.000

1769 –0.017 0.018 0.008 0.000 –0.034 –0.008 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.050 0.000

1770 –0.014 0.018 0.009 0.000 –0.036 –0.008 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.081 0.000

1771 –0.011 0.018 0.009 0.000 –0.038 –0.008 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.055 0.000

1772 –0.008 0.018 0.009 0.000 –0.039 –0.009 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.052 –0.070

1773 –0.005 0.018 0.010 0.000 –0.041 –0.009 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.016 –0.020

1774 –0.003 0.018 0.010 0.000 –0.043 –0.010 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.002 –0.005

1775 –0.001 0.018 0.011 0.000 –0.045 –0.010 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.038 –0.001

1776 0.001 0.018 0.011 0.000 –0.046 –0.010 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.045 0.000

1777 0.002 0.018 0.011 0.000 –0.048 –0.011 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.036 0.000

1778 0.003 0.018 0.012 0.000 –0.050 –0.011 0.001 0.004 0.000 0.017 –0.067

1779 0.003 0.018 0.012 0.000 –0.052 –0.012 0.001 0.004 0.000 –0.034 –0.071

1780 0.003 0.018 0.013 0.000 –0.054 –0.012 0.002 0.004 0.000 –0.069 –0.018

1781 0.004 0.018 0.013 0.000 –0.055 –0.012 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.057 –0.004

1782 0.004 0.018 0.014 0.000 –0.057 –0.013 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.028 –0.001

1783 0.006 0.018 0.014 0.000 –0.059 –0.013 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.065 –7.857

1784 0.009 0.018 0.014 0.000 –0.061 –0.014 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.059 –0.522

1785 0.012 0.018 0.015 0.000 –0.062 –0.014 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.046 –0.121

1786 0.017 0.018 0.015 0.000 –0.064 –0.014 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.022 –0.027

1787 0.021 0.018 0.016 0.000 –0.066 –0.015 0.002 0.005 0.000 –0.001 –0.002

1788 0.027 0.018 0.016 0.000 –0.068 –0.015 0.002 0.006 0.000 0.034 –0.133

1789 0.033 0.019 0.017 0.000 –0.070 –0.016 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.033 –0.041

1790 0.038 0.019 0.017 0.000 –0.071 –0.016 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.058 –0.009

1791 0.044 0.019 0.017 0.000 –0.073 –0.016 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.056 –0.001

1792 0.050 0.020 0.018 0.000 –0.075 –0.017 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.051 0.000

1793 0.055 0.020 0.018 0.000 –0.077 –0.017 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.065 0.000

1794 0.060 0.021 0.019 0.000 –0.079 –0.018 0.002 0.006 0.000 –0.064 –0.157

1795 0.066 0.022 0.019 0.000 –0.080 –0.018 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.027 0.000

1796 0.070 0.023 0.020 0.000 –0.082 –0.018 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.033 –0.781

1797 0.075 0.023 0.020 0.000 –0.084 –0.019 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.043 –0.071

1798 0.079 0.024 0.020 0.000 –0.086 –0.019 0.002 0.007 0.000 –0.045 –0.016
1405

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.1.2 | (continued)

Year CO2

GHG

Other*

O3

(Trop)

O3

(Strat)

Aerosol

(Total) LUC H2O(Strat)

BC

Snow

Con–

trails Solar Volcano

1799 0.084 0.025 0.021 0.000 –0.087 –0.020 0.003 0.007 0.000 –0.047 –0.002

1800 0.088 0.025 0.021 0.000 –0.089 –0.020 0.003 0.007 0.000 –0.055 0.000

1801 0.092 0.026 0.022 0.000 –0.091 –0.020 0.003 0.007 0.000 –0.021 –0.154

1802 0.096 0.026 0.022 0.000 –0.093 –0.021 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.010 –0.048

1803 0.099 0.026 0.023 0.000 –0.095 –0.021 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.033 –0.011

1804 0.103 0.026 0.023 0.000 –0.096 –0.022 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.040 –0.230

1805 0.106 0.026 0.023 0.000 –0.098 –0.022 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.046 –0.070

1806 0.109 0.026 0.024 0.000 –0.100 –0.022 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.036 –0.016

1807 0.112 0.026 0.024 0.000 –0.102 –0.023 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.057 –0.002

1808 0.114 0.026 0.025 0.000 –0.104 –0.023 0.003 0.008 0.000 –0.065 0.000

1809 0.116 0.026 0.025 0.000 –0.105 –0.024 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.065 –6.947

1810 0.117 0.026 0.025 0.000 –0.107 –0.024 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.070 –2.254

1811 0.118 0.027 0.026 0.000 –0.109 –0.024 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.072 –0.836

1812 0.119 0.027 0.026 0.000 –0.111 –0.025 0.003 0.009 0.000 –0.072 –0.308

1813 0.118 0.028 0.027 0.000 –0.112 –0.025 0.004 0.009 0.000 –0.069 –0.109

1814 0.117 0.029 0.027 0.000 –0.114 –0.026 0.004 0.009 0.000 –0.064 0.000

1815 0.115 0.030 0.028 0.000 –0.116 –0.026 0.004 0.009 0.000 –0.062 –11.629

1816 0.113 0.031 0.028 0.000 –0.118 –0.026 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.052 –4.553

1817 0.110 0.032 0.028 0.000 –0.120 –0.027 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.048 –2.419

1818 0.107 0.034 0.029 0.000 –0.121 –0.027 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.053 –0.915

1819 0.104 0.035 0.029 0.000 –0.123 –0.028 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.054 –0.337

1820 0.101 0.037 0.030 0.000 –0.125 –0.028 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.059 –0.039

1821 0.099 0.038 0.030 0.000 –0.127 –0.028 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.065 0.000

1822 0.097 0.040 0.031 0.000 –0.128 –0.029 0.004 0.010 0.000 –0.066 0.000

1823 0.096 0.041 0.031 0.000 –0.130 –0.029 0.004 0.011 0.000 –0.068 0.000

1824 0.097 0.042 0.031 0.000 –0.132 –0.030 0.004 0.011 0.000 –0.059 0.000

1825 0.098 0.043 0.032 0.000 –0.134 –0.030 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.052 0.000

1826 0.100 0.044 0.032 0.000 –0.136 –0.030 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.044 0.000

1827 0.103 0.045 0.033 0.000 –0.137 –0.031 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.018 0.000

1828 0.106 0.045 0.033 0.000 –0.139 –0.031 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.008 0.000

1829 0.109 0.045 0.034 0.000 –0.141 –0.032 0.005 0.011 0.000 –0.006 0.000

1830 0.111 0.045 0.034 0.000 –0.143 –0.032 0.005 0.012 0.000 0.002 0.000

1831 0.113 0.044 0.034 0.000 –0.145 –0.032 0.005 0.012 0.000 0.002 –1.538

1832 0.114 0.043 0.035 0.000 –0.146 –0.033 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.020 –1.229

1833 0.114 0.041 0.035 0.000 –0.148 –0.033 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.035 –0.605

1834 0.114 0.039 0.036 0.000 –0.150 –0.034 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.038 –0.223

1835 0.113 0.037 0.036 0.000 –0.152 –0.034 0.005 0.012 0.000 –0.033 –4.935

1836 0.112 0.036 0.037 0.000 –0.153 –0.034 0.005 0.012 0.000 0.017 –1.445

1837 0.112 0.035 0.037 0.000 –0.155 –0.035 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.055 –0.523

1838 0.112 0.035 0.037 0.000 –0.157 –0.035 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.051 –0.192

1839 0.114 0.036 0.038 0.000 –0.159 –0.036 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.028 –0.069

1840 0.117 0.037 0.038 0.000 –0.161 –0.036 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.027 –0.047

1841 0.121 0.038 0.039 0.000 –0.162 –0.036 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.007 –0.013

1842 0.127 0.040 0.039 0.000 –0.164 –0.037 0.006 0.013 0.000 –0.006 –0.003

1843 0.135 0.041 0.039 0.000 –0.166 –0.037 0.006 0.013 0.000 –0.013 –0.052

1844 0.142 0.042 0.040 0.000 –0.168 –0.038 0.006 0.014 0.000 –0.024 –0.014

1845 0.149 0.043 0.040 0.000 –0.169 –0.038 0.006 0.014 0.000 –0.026 –0.003

1846 0.155 0.044 0.041 0.000 –0.171 –0.038 0.006 0.014 0.000 –0.024 –0.071

1847 0.160 0.044 0.041 0.000 –0.173 –0.039 0.007 0.014 0.000 –0.062 –0.020

1848 0.163 0.045 0.042 0.000 –0.175 –0.039 0.007 0.014 0.000 –0.018 –0.005
1406

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.1.2 | (continued)

Year CO2

GHG

Other*

O3

(Trop)

O3

(Strat)

Aerosol

(Total) LUC H2O(Strat)

BC

Snow

Con–

trails Solar Volcano

1849 0.166 0.046 0.042 0.000 –0.177 –0.040 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.043 –0.001

1850 0.167 0.046 0.042 0.000 –0.178 –0.040 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.024 –0.100

1851 0.167 0.047 0.043 0.000 –0.180 –0.040 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.016 –0.075

1852 0.166 0.048 0.044 0.000 –0.182 –0.041 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.020 –0.025

1853 0.164 0.049 0.045 0.000 –0.184 –0.041 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.011 –0.025

1854 0.162 0.050 0.046 0.000 –0.185 –0.041 0.007 0.016 0.000 –0.010 0.000

1855 0.160 0.051 0.047 0.000 –0.187 –0.042 0.007 0.016 0.000 –0.027 –0.050

1856 0.158 0.052 0.048 0.000 –0.189 –0.042 0.007 0.016 0.000 –0.037 –0.975

1857 0.156 0.054 0.049 0.000 –0.191 –0.042 0.008 0.016 0.000 –0.037 –1.500

1858 0.155 0.055 0.050 0.000 –0.192 –0.043 0.008 0.017 0.000 –0.020 –0.725

1859 0.154 0.057 0.050 0.000 –0.194 –0.043 0.008 0.017 0.000 –0.007 –0.275

1860 0.154 0.058 0.051 0.000 –0.196 –0.043 0.008 0.017 0.000 0.029 –0.125

1861 0.153 0.060 0.052 0.000 –0.198 –0.044 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.036 –0.075

1862 0.153 0.061 0.053 0.000 –0.199 –0.044 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.013 –0.350

1863 0.154 0.062 0.054 0.000 –0.201 –0.044 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.006 –0.250

1864 0.156 0.063 0.055 0.000 –0.203 –0.045 0.008 0.018 0.000 –0.017 –0.125

1865 0.158 0.064 0.056 0.000 –0.205 –0.045 0.009 0.019 0.000 –0.018 –0.050

1866 0.162 0.066 0.057 0.000 –0.206 –0.045 0.009 0.019 0.000 –0.021 –0.025

1867 0.167 0.067 0.058 0.000 –0.208 –0.046 0.009 0.019 0.000 –0.037 0.000

1868 0.173 0.068 0.059 0.000 –0.210 –0.046 0.009 0.020 0.000 –0.039 0.000

1869 0.180 0.070 0.059 0.000 –0.212 –0.046 0.009 0.020 0.000 –0.005 –0.025

1870 0.188 0.071 0.060 0.000 –0.213 –0.047 0.009 0.020 0.000 –0.028 –0.025

1871 0.195 0.073 0.061 0.000 –0.215 –0.047 0.009 0.020 0.000 0.025 –0.025

1872 0.202 0.075 0.062 0.000 –0.217 –0.047 0.009 0.021 0.000 0.012 –0.025

1873 0.208 0.077 0.063 0.000 –0.219 –0.048 0.010 0.021 0.000 0.015 –0.075

1874 0.212 0.079 0.064 0.000 –0.220 –0.048 0.010 0.021 0.000 0.000 –0.050

1875 0.215 0.081 0.065 0.000 –0.222 –0.049 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.015 –0.025

1876 0.218 0.083 0.066 0.000 –0.224 –0.049 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.029 –0.150

1877 0.219 0.084 0.067 0.000 –0.226 –0.049 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.033 –0.125

1878 0.219 0.086 0.067 0.000 –0.227 –0.050 0.010 0.022 0.000 –0.041 –0.075

1879 0.221 0.088 0.068 0.000 –0.229 –0.050 0.010 0.023 0.000 –0.044 –0.050

1880 0.222 0.089 0.069 0.000 –0.231 –0.050 0.011 0.023 0.000 –0.039 –0.025

1881 0.224 0.091 0.070 0.000 –0.233 –0.051 0.011 0.023 0.000 –0.007 –0.025

1882 0.228 0.092 0.071 0.000 –0.234 –0.051 0.011 0.024 0.000 –0.019 –0.025

1883 0.232 0.094 0.072 0.000 –0.236 –0.052 0.011 0.024 0.000 –0.031 –1.175

1884 0.238 0.096 0.073 0.000 –0.238 –0.052 0.011 0.024 0.000 0.018 –3.575

1885 0.244 0.098 0.074 0.000 –0.240 –0.053 0.011 0.024 0.000 0.002 –1.575

1886 0.250 0.100 0.075 0.000 –0.241 –0.053 0.011 0.025 0.000 –0.014 –0.900

1887 0.258 0.102 0.075 0.000 –0.243 –0.053 0.012 0.025 0.000 –0.033 –0.925

1888 0.266 0.104 0.076 0.000 –0.245 –0.054 0.012 0.025 0.000 –0.037 –0.550

1889 0.274 0.106 0.077 0.000 –0.247 –0.054 0.012 0.026 0.000 –0.041 –0.725

1890 0.283 0.107 0.078 0.000 –0.248 –0.055 0.012 0.026 0.000 –0.041 –0.975

1891 0.293 0.108 0.079 0.000 –0.250 –0.055 0.012 0.026 0.000 –0.020 –0.750

1892 0.302 0.109 0.080 0.000 –0.252 –0.056 0.012 0.026 0.000 0.004 –0.550

1893 0.311 0.110 0.081 0.000 –0.254 –0.056 0.013 0.027 0.000 0.035 –0.225

1894 0.319 0.111 0.082 0.000 –0.255 –0.057 0.013 0.027 0.000 0.072 –0.100

1895 0.325 0.111 0.083 0.000 –0.257 –0.057 0.013 0.027 0.000 0.052 –0.025

1896 0.330 0.112 0.083 0.000 –0.259 –0.058 0.013 0.028 0.000 0.023 –0.450

1897 0.334 0.113 0.084 0.000 –0.261 –0.058 0.013 0.028 0.000 –0.003 –0.425

1898 0.336 0.114 0.085 0.000 –0.262 –0.059 0.014 0.028 0.000 –0.012 –0.300
1407

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.1.2 | (continued)

Year CO2

GHG

Other*

O3

(Trop)

O3

(Strat)

Aerosol

(Total) LUC H2O(Strat)

BC

Snow

Con–

trails Solar Volcano

1899 0.337 0.115 0.086 0.000 –0.264 –0.059 0.014 0.028 0.000 –0.017 –0.125

1900 0.339 0.117 0.087 0.000 –0.266 –0.060 0.014 0.029 0.000 –0.028 –0.050

1901 0.341 0.120 0.088 0.000 –0.268 –0.061 0.014 0.029 0.000 –0.043 –0.025

1902 0.344 0.123 0.089 0.000 –0.270 –0.061 0.015 0.030 0.000 –0.048 –0.500

1903 0.349 0.127 0.090 0.000 –0.272 –0.062 0.015 0.030 0.000 –0.036 –1.800

1904 0.355 0.130 0.091 0.000 –0.274 –0.062 0.015 0.031 0.000 0.011 –0.800

1905 0.362 0.134 0.092 0.000 –0.276 –0.063 0.016 0.032 0.000 –0.016 –0.325

1906 0.369 0.138 0.092 0.000 –0.278 –0.063 0.016 0.032 0.000 0.028 –0.175

1907 0.376 0.141 0.093 0.000 –0.280 –0.064 0.016 0.033 0.000 –0.001 –0.225

1908 0.383 0.145 0.094 0.000 –0.282 –0.064 0.017 0.033 0.000 0.020 –0.250

1909 0.389 0.148 0.095 –0.001 –0.284 –0.065 0.017 0.034 0.000 –0.002 –0.100

1910 0.395 0.151 0.096 –0.001 –0.286 –0.065 0.017 0.035 0.000 –0.006 –0.075

1911 0.400 0.155 0.097 –0.001 –0.288 –0.066 0.018 0.035 0.000 –0.032 –0.050

1912 0.406 0.159 0.098 –0.001 –0.289 –0.066 0.018 0.035 0.000 –0.045 –0.475

1913 0.412 0.163 0.100 –0.001 –0.290 –0.067 0.019 0.035 0.000 –0.042 –0.600

1914 0.419 0.167 0.101 –0.001 –0.291 –0.068 0.019 0.035 0.000 –0.033 –0.250

1915 0.427 0.171 0.102 –0.001 –0.292 –0.068 0.019 0.035 0.000 0.013 –0.100

1916 0.436 0.175 0.103 –0.001 –0.293 –0.069 0.020 0.035 0.000 0.068 –0.075

1917 0.445 0.180 0.104 –0.001 –0.294 –0.069 0.020 0.035 0.000 0.086 –0.050

1918 0.453 0.185 0.105 –0.001 –0.296 –0.070 0.021 0.035 0.000 0.121 –0.050

1919 0.460 0.189 0.107 –0.002 –0.297 –0.071 0.021 0.035 0.000 0.073 –0.050

1920 0.466 0.193 0.108 –0.001 –0.298 –0.071 0.022 0.035 0.000 0.039 –0.225

1921 0.472 0.196 0.109 –0.001 –0.302 –0.072 0.022 0.036 0.000 0.012 –0.200

1922 0.476 0.199 0.110 –0.002 –0.305 –0.073 0.022 0.036 0.000 –0.013 –0.075

1923 0.481 0.201 0.111 –0.002 –0.309 –0.073 0.023 0.036 0.000 –0.025 –0.025

1924 0.486 0.203 0.113 –0.002 –0.313 –0.074 0.023 0.036 0.000 –0.029 –0.075

1925 0.491 0.205 0.114 –0.002 –0.317 –0.075 0.024 0.036 0.000 –0.015 –0.075

1926 0.497 0.207 0.115 –0.002 –0.321 –0.076 0.024 0.036 0.000 0.020 –0.050

1927 0.503 0.210 0.116 –0.002 –0.325 –0.076 0.025 0.036 0.000 0.063 –0.050

1928 0.510 0.214 0.117 –0.002 –0.328 –0.077 0.025 0.037 0.000 0.033 –0.125

1929 0.517 0.218 0.119 –0.002 –0.332 –0.078 0.025 0.037 0.000 0.028 –0.250

1930 0.523 0.222 0.120 –0.003 –0.336 –0.079 0.026 0.037 0.000 0.048 –0.150

1931 0.530 0.226 0.122 –0.003 –0.338 –0.080 0.026 0.037 0.000 0.009 –0.125

1932 0.536 0.230 0.124 –0.003 –0.340 –0.081 0.027 0.038 0.000 –0.016 –0.200

1933 0.542 0.234 0.126 –0.003 –0.341 –0.081 0.027 0.038 0.000 –0.029 –0.175

1934 0.548 0.237 0.128 –0.003 –0.343 –0.082 0.027 0.039 0.000 –0.027 –0.100

1935 0.555 0.241 0.130 –0.003 –0.345 –0.083 0.028 0.039 0.000 –0.008 –0.100

1936 0.563 0.244 0.133 –0.003 –0.347 –0.084 0.028 0.040 0.000 0.068 –0.075

1937 0.570 0.247 0.135 –0.003 –0.349 –0.085 0.029 0.040 0.000 0.089 –0.075

1938 0.577 0.251 0.137 –0.003 –0.350 –0.086 0.029 0.040 0.000 0.080 –0.125

1939 0.584 0.254 0.139 –0.004 –0.352 –0.087 0.029 0.041 0.000 0.094 –0.100

1940 0.590 0.257 0.141 –0.004 –0.354 –0.088 0.030 0.041 0.000 0.070 –0.075

1941 0.595 0.261 0.143 –0.004 –0.358 –0.089 0.030 0.042 0.000 0.057 –0.050

1942 0.598 0.264 0.146 –0.004 –0.362 –0.090 0.030 0.042 0.000 0.030 –0.100

1943 0.599 0.267 0.148 –0.004 –0.366 –0.092 0.031 0.043 0.000 –0.005 –0.100

1944 0.599 0.270 0.150 –0.004 –0.370 –0.093 0.031 0.043 0.001 –0.011 –0.050

1945 0.599 0.273 0.152 –0.004 –0.374 –0.094 0.032 0.043 0.001 0.019 –0.050

1946 0.599 0.276 0.154 –0.005 –0.378 –0.095 0.032 0.044 0.001 0.025 –0.050

1947 0.598 0.279 0.156 –0.005 –0.382 –0.096 0.032 0.044 0.002 0.093 –0.050

1948 0.598 0.283 0.158 –0.005 –0.386 –0.097 0.033 0.045 0.002 0.146 –0.050
1408

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.1.2 | (continued)

Year CO2

GHG

Other*

O3

(Trop)

O3

(Strat)

Aerosol

(Total) LUC H2O(Strat)

BC

Snow

Con–

trails Solar Volcano

1949 0.601 0.287 0.161 –0.005 –0.390 –0.099 0.033 0.045 0.002 0.123 –0.075

1950 0.604 0.291 0.163 –0.005 –0.394 –0.100 0.034 0.046 0.002 0.110 –0.075

1951 0.608 0.296 0.168 –0.005 –0.409 –0.102 0.034 0.046 0.002 0.037 –0.050

1952 0.615 0.302 0.173 –0.006 –0.424 –0.103 0.035 0.047 0.002 0.045 –0.100

1953 0.623 0.308 0.178 –0.006 –0.439 –0.105 0.036 0.047 0.003 0.025 –0.075

1954 0.631 0.315 0.183 –0.006 –0.455 –0.106 0.036 0.048 0.003 0.003 –0.100

1955 0.641 0.323 0.188 –0.006 –0.470 –0.108 0.037 0.048 0.003 0.015 –0.050

1956 0.651 0.332 0.193 –0.007 –0.485 –0.109 0.038 0.049 0.003 0.064 –0.025

1957 0.662 0.341 0.198 –0.007 –0.500 –0.111 0.038 0.050 0.004 0.129 –0.025

1958 0.673 0.349 0.203 –0.007 –0.515 –0.112 0.039 0.050 0.004 0.194 0.000

1959 0.685 0.358 0.208 –0.008 –0.530 –0.114 0.040 0.051 0.004 0.159 0.000

1960 0.698 0.366 0.213 –0.008 –0.546 –0.116 0.041 0.051 0.004 0.151 –0.125

1961 0.709 0.374 0.218 –0.008 –0.563 –0.117 0.041 0.051 0.004 0.110 –0.275

1962 0.719 0.383 0.223 –0.009 –0.580 –0.119 0.042 0.051 0.004 0.051 –0.325

1963 0.727 0.392 0.228 –0.009 –0.598 –0.120 0.043 0.050 0.005 0.038 –1.150

1964 0.735 0.402 0.233 –0.010 –0.615 –0.122 0.044 0.050 0.005 0.019 –1.800

1965 0.748 0.412 0.239 –0.011 –0.632 –0.123 0.045 0.050 0.005 0.008 –1.075

1966 0.762 0.424 0.244 –0.011 –0.650 –0.125 0.046 0.050 0.006 0.012 –0.575

1967 0.778 0.437 0.249 –0.012 –0.667 –0.126 0.047 0.049 0.007 0.055 –0.375

1968 0.794 0.451 0.254 –0.013 –0.684 –0.127 0.048 0.049 0.008 0.086 –0.675

1969 0.811 0.466 0.259 –0.014 –0.701 –0.129 0.049 0.049 0.009 0.077 –0.850

1970 0.828 0.483 0.264 –0.014 –0.719 –0.130 0.050 0.049 0.009 0.092 –0.425

1971 0.846 0.500 0.270 –0.016 –0.722 –0.131 0.050 0.049 0.009 0.082 –0.150

1972 0.865 0.519 0.277 –0.017 –0.725 –0.132 0.051 0.049 0.009 0.076 –0.100

1973 0.885 0.538 0.284 –0.018 –0.728 –0.134 0.052 0.049 0.010 0.044 –0.200

1974 0.904 0.558 0.290 –0.019 –0.732 –0.135 0.053 0.050 0.010 0.023 –0.325

1975 0.920 0.578 0.297 –0.021 –0.735 –0.136 0.054 0.050 0.010 0.006 –0.750

1976 0.938 0.598 0.304 –0.022 –0.738 –0.137 0.055 0.050 0.010 –0.003 –0.350

1977 0.960 0.617 0.310 –0.024 –0.741 –0.138 0.056 0.050 0.011 0.040 –0.125

1978 0.987 0.636 0.317 –0.026 –0.745 –0.138 0.057 0.051 0.011 0.129 –0.200

1979 1.018 0.656 0.324 –0.027 –0.748 –0.139 0.058 0.051 0.012 0.167 –0.225

1980 1.046 0.675 0.330 –0.029 –0.751 –0.140 0.059 0.051 0.012 0.150 –0.125

1981 1.066 0.696 0.335 –0.031 –0.763 –0.141 0.061 0.051 0.012 0.147 –0.125

1982 1.085 0.717 0.339 –0.033 –0.775 –0.141 0.062 0.050 0.012 0.094 –1.325

1983 1.110 0.737 0.343 –0.035 –0.788 –0.142 0.063 0.050 0.012 0.091 –1.875

1984 1.136 0.757 0.348 –0.037 –0.800 –0.143 0.064 0.049 0.013 0.016 –0.750

1985 1.158 0.776 0.352 –0.038 –0.812 –0.143 0.065 0.049 0.014 0.011 –0.325

1986 1.180 0.795 0.356 –0.040 –0.824 –0.144 0.065 0.049 0.015 0.012 –0.350

1987 1.208 0.813 0.360 –0.042 –0.836 –0.144 0.066 0.048 0.016 0.015 –0.250

1988 1.240 0.832 0.365 –0.044 –0.848 –0.145 0.067 0.048 0.017 0.095 –0.200

1989 1.266 0.853 0.369 –0.046 –0.861 –0.145 0.067 0.047 0.018 0.151 –0.150

1990 1.287 0.872 0.373 –0.048 –0.873 –0.146 0.068 0.047 0.019 0.118 –0.150

1991 1.305 0.888 0.375 –0.050 –0.878 –0.146 0.068 0.046 0.019 0.126 –1.350

1992 1.318 0.900 0.376 –0.052 –0.883 –0.146 0.069 0.045 0.020 0.137 –3.025

1993 1.332 0.909 0.378 –0.054 –0.888 –0.147 0.069 0.045 0.022 0.063 –1.225

1994 1.354 0.916 0.379 –0.055 –0.893 –0.147 0.069 0.044 0.024 0.027 –0.500

1995 1.381 0.923 0.380 –0.056 –0.897 –0.147 0.070 0.043 0.025 0.020 –0.250

1996 1.404 0.930 0.382 –0.057 –0.902 –0.148 0.070 0.043 0.027 0.003 –0.175

1997 1.428 0.937 0.383 –0.057 –0.907 –0.148 0.070 0.042 0.028 0.016 –0.125

1998 1.459 0.944 0.385 –0.057 –0.912 –0.148 0.071 0.041 0.029 0.062 –0.075
1409

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.1.2 | (continued)

Year CO2

GHG

Other*

O3

(Trop)

O3

(Strat)

Aerosol

(Total) LUC H2O(Strat)

BC

Snow

Con–

trails Solar Volcano

1999 1.489 0.952 0.386 –0.056 –0.917 –0.148 0.071 0.041 0.031 0.104 –0.050

2000 1.510 0.957 0.388 –0.056 –0.922 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.033 0.127 –0.050

2001 1.532 0.961 0.389 –0.055 –0.920 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.033 0.114 –0.050

2002 1.563 0.965 0.390 –0.055 –0.918 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.033 0.108 –0.050

2003 1.594 0.969 0.391 –0.054 –0.916 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.034 0.042 –0.075

2004 1.624 0.973 0.393 –0.053 –0.913 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.038 0.012 –0.050

2005 1.654 0.976 0.394 –0.053 –0.911 –0.149 0.071 0.040 0.040 –0.011 –0.075

2006 1.684 0.981 0.395 –0.052 –0.909 –0.150 0.071 0.040 0.042 –0.016 –0.100

2007 1.711 0.986 0.396 –0.052 –0.907 –0.150 0.071 0.040 0.044 –0.017 –0.100

2008 1.736 0.992 0.398 –0.051 –0.904 –0.150 0.072 0.040 0.046 –0.025 –0.100

2009 1.762 0.999 0.399 –0.051 –0.902 –0.150 0.072 0.040 0.044 –0.027 –0.125

2010 1.789 1.005 0.400 –0.050 –0.900 –0.150 0.072 0.040 0.048 0.001 –0.100

2011 1.816 1.015 0.400 –0.050 –0.900 –0.150 0.073 0.040 0.050 0.030 –0.125

Notes:

See Figure 8.18, also Sections 8.1 and 11.3.6.1. To get the total ERF (effective radiative forcing) all components can be summed. Small negative values for CO2 prior to 1800 are due to uncertainty 

in PI values. GHG other* includes only WMGHG. Aerosol is the sum of direct and indirect effects. LUC includes land use land cover change. Contrails combines aviation contrails (~20% of total) 

and contrail-induced cirrus. Values are annual average.

Table AII.1.3 | Historical global decadal mean global surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1961–1990 average

Year

HadCRUT4 GISS NCDC

Lower (5%) Median (50%) Upper (95%) Median (50%) Median (50%)

1850d –0.404 –0.320 –0.243

1860d –0.413 –0.335 –0.263

1870d –0.326 –0.258 –0.195

1880d –0.363 –0.297 –0.237 –0.296 –0.291

1890d –0.430 –0.359 –0.299 –0.361 –0.370

1900d –0.473 –0.410 –0.353 –0.418 –0.434

1910d –0.448 –0.387 –0.334 –0.435 –0.430

1920d –0.297 –0.242 –0.193 –0.311 –0.311

1930d –0.166 –0.116 –0.070 –0.172 –0.161

1940d –0.047 –0.002 +0.042 –0.085 –0.063

1950d –0.106 –0.061 –0.017 –0.134 –0.136

1960d –0.093 –0.054 –0.014 –0.104 –0.086

1970d –0.113 –0.077 –0.041 –0.058 –0.060

1980d +0.052 +0.095 +0.135 +0.118 +0.109

1990d +0.221 +0.270 +0.318 +0.275 +0.272

2000d +0.400 +0.453 +0.508 +0.472 +0.450

1986–2005

minus 1850–1900 +0.61 ± 0.06 N/A N/A

1986–2005

minus 1886–1905 +0.66 ± 0.06 +0.66 +0.66

1986–2005

minus 1961–1990 +0.30 ± 0.03 +0.31 +0.30

1986–2005

minus 1980–1999 +0.11 ± 0.02 +0.11 +0.11

1946–2012

minus 1880–1945 +0.38 ± 0.04 +0.40 +0.39

Notes:

Decadal average (1990d = 1990–1999) median global surface air temperatures from HadCRUT4, GISS and NCDC analyses. See Chapter 2, Sections 2.4.3 and 2.SM.4.3.3, Table 2.7, Figures 2.19, 2.20, 

2.21 and 2.22, and also Figure 11.24a. Confidence intervals (5 to 95% for HadCRUT4 only) take into account measurement, sampling, bias and coverage uncertainties. Also shown are temperature 

increases between the CMIP5 reference period (1986–2005) and four earlier averaging periods, where 1850–1900 is the early instrumental temperature record. Uncertainties in these temperature 

differences are 5 to 95% confidence intervals.
1410

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions

See discussion of Figure 8.2 and Section 11.3.5.

Table AII.2.1a | Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and other industrial sources (FF) (PgC yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2000d 6.82 6.82 6.82 6.82 6.90 6.90 7.10 6.92 ± 0.80 6.98 ± 0.81 6.76 ± 0.71 6.98 ± 0.81

2010d 8.61 8.54 8.39 8.90 8.46 8.50 8.68 8.38 ± 1.03 8.63 ± 1.07 7.66 ± 1.64 8.27 ± 1.68

2020d 9.00 9.79 8.99 11.38 11.01 10.00 10.26 8.46 ± 1.38 10.24±1.69 8.33 ± 1.82 10.30 ± 1.87

2030d 7.21 10.83 9.99 13.79 13.53 11.20 11.62 6.81 ± 1.49 10.93±1.83 9.20 ± 1.55 12.36 ± 2.25

2040d 4.79 11.25 11.47 16.69 15.01 12.20 12.66 4.61 ± 1.60 11.82±1.84 10.04 ± 1.42 15.09 ± 2.15

2050d 3.21 10.91 13.00 20.03 16.49 11.70 13.70 2.96 ± 1.80 11.37±1.84 11.14 ± 1.55 18.15 ± 2.56

2060d 1.55 9.42 14.73 23.32 18.49 10.20 14.68 1.77 ± 1.06 9.96 ± 2.17 13.22 ± 2.05 21.49 ± 2.42

2070d 0.26 7.17 16.33 25.75 20.49 8.60 15.66 0.75 ± 0.90 7.86 ± 1.94 14.57 ± 1.88 23.62 ± 2.43

2080d –0.39 4.62 16.87 27.28 22.97 7.30 17.00 –0.09 ± 0.99 5.17 ± 1.77 15.51 ± 2.29 24.47 ± 2.70

2090d –0.81 4.19 14.70 28.24 25.94 6.10 18.70 –0.30 ± 1.09 5.13 ± 1.53 14.24 ± 1.81 25.30 ± 2.86

2100d –0.92 4.09 13.63 28.68 28.91 5.20 20.40 –0.63 ± 1.17 4.64 ± 1.34 12.78 ± 1.35 25.28 ± 2.73

Notes:

Decadal mean values (2010d = average of 2005–2014) are used for emissions because linear interpolation between decadal means conserves total emissions. Data are taken from RCP database 

(Meinshausen et al., 2011a; http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb) and may be different from yearly snapshots; for 2100 the average (2095–2100) is used. SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a are 

taken from TAR Appendix II. RCPn.n& values are inferred from ESMs used in CMIP5. The model mean and standard deviation is shown. ESM fossil emissions are taken from 14 models as described 

in Jones et al. (2013) although not every model has performed every scenario. See Chapter 6, Sections 6.4.3, and 6.4.3.3, and Figure 6.25.

Table AII.2.1b | Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from agriculture, forestry, land use (AFOLU) (PgC yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 SRES-A2 SRES-B1 IS92a

2000d 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.07 1.07 1.30

2010d 1.09 0.94 0.93 1.08 1.12 0.78 1.22

2020d 0.97 0.41 0.38 0.91 1.25 0.63 1.14

2030d 0.79 0.23 –0.43 0.74 1.19 –0.09 1.04

2040d 0.51 0.21 –0.67 0.65 1.06 –0.48 0.92

2050d 0.29 0.23 –0.48 0.58 0.93 –0.41 0.80

2060d 0.55 0.19 –0.27 0.50 0.67 –0.46 0.54

2070d 0.55 0.11 –0.04 0.42 0.40 –0.42 0.28

2080d 0.55 0.02 0.20 0.31 0.25 –0.60 0.12

2090d 0.59 0.03 0.24 0.20 0.21 –0.78 0.06

2100d 0.50 0.04 0.18 0.09 0.18 –0.97 –0.10

Notes:

See Table AII.2.1a.

Notes:

See Table AII.2.1a.

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000d 8.03 8.03 8.03 8.03

2010d 9.70 9.48 9.32 9.98

2020d 9.97 10.20 9.37 12.28

2030d 8.00 11.06 9.57 14.53

2040d 5.30 11.46 10.80 17.33

2050d 3.50 11.15 12.52 20.61

2060d 2.10 9.60 14.46 23.83

2070d 0.81 7.27 16.29 26.17

2080d 0.16 4.65 17.07 27.60

2090d –0.23 4.22 14.94 28.44

2100d –0.42 4.13 13.82 28.77

Table AII.2.1c | Anthropogenic total CO2 emissions (PgC yr–1)
1411

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.2.2 | Anthropogenic CH4 emissions (Tg yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

PI 202 ± 28 202 ± 28 202 ± 28 202 ± 28

2010total 554 ± 56 554 ± 56 554 ± 56 554 ± 56

2010anthrop 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45

2010d 322 322 321 345 370 349 433 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45 352 ± 45

2020d 267 334 315 415 424 377 477 268 ± 34 366 ± 47 338 ± 43 424 ± 54

2030d 238 338 326 484 486 385 529 246 ± 31 370 ± 47 354 ± 45 490 ± 63

2040d 223 337 343 573 542 381 580 235 ± 30 368 ± 47 373 ± 47 585 ± 75

2050d 192 331 354 669 598 359 630 198 ± 25 361 ± 46 385 ± 49 685 ± 88

2060d 169 318 362 738 654 342 654 174 ± 22 346 ± 44 395 ± 50 754 ± 96

2070d 161 301 359 779 711 324 678 169 ± 22 328 ± 42 390 ± 50 790 ±101

2080d 155 283 336 820 770 293 704 162 ± 21 306 ± 39 369 ± 47 832 ±106

2090d 149 274 278 865 829 266 733 155 ± 20 298 ± 38 293 ± 37 882 ±113

2100d 143 267 250 885 889 236 762 148 ± 19 290 ± 37 267 ± 34 899 ±115

Notes:

For all anthropogenic emissions see Box 1.1 (Figure 4), Section 8.2.2, Figure 8.2, Sections 11.3.5.1.1 to 3, 11.3.5.2, 11.3.6.1. Ten-year average values (2010d = average of 2005–2014; but 2100d

= average of 2095–2100) are given for RCP-based emissions, but single-year emissions are shown for other scenarios. RCPn.n = harmonized anthropogenic emissions as reported. SRES A2 and 

B1 and IS92a are from TAR Appendix II. AR5 RCPn.n& emissions have ± 1-s (16 to 84% confidence) uncertainties and are based on the methodology of Prather et al. (2012) updated with CMIP5 

results (Holmes et al., 2013; Voulgarakis et al., 2013). Projections of CH4 lifetimes are harmonized based on PI (1750) and PD (2010) budgets that include uncertainties in lifetimes and abundances. 

All projected RCP abundances for CH4 and N2O (Tables AII.4.2 to AII.4.3) rescale each of the RCP emissions by a fixed factor equal to the ratio of RCP to AR5 anthropogenic emissions at year 2010 

to ensure harmonization between total emissions, lifetimes and observed abundances. Natural emissions are kept constant but included as additional uncertainty. Independent emission estimates 

are shown as follows: MFR/CLE are the maximum feasible reduction and current legislation scenarios from Dentener et al. (2005; 2006), while MFR*/CLE* are the similarly labeled scenarios from 

Cofala et al. (2007). REFL/REFU are lower/upper bounds from the reference scenario of van Vuuren et al. (2008), while POLL/POLU are the lower/upper bounds from their policy scenario. AMEL/AMEU

are lower/upper bounds from Calvin et al. (2012). RogL/RogU are lower/upper bounds from Rogelj et et. (2011).

Year MFR CLE MFR* CLE* RogL RogU AMEL AMEU

2000d 366 366 303 303

2010d 193 335 332 333

2020d 208 383 240 390 294 350

2030d 339 478 229 443 217 428 293 376

2040d 295 404

2050d 178 454 291 426

2060d 275 434

2070d 254 436

2080d 201 430

2090d 183 417

2100d 121 385 167 406
1412

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

PI 9.1 ± 1.0 9.1 ± 1.0 9.1 ± 1.0 9.1 ± 1.0

2010total 15.7 ± 1.1 15.7 ± 1.1 15.7 ± 1.1 15.7 ± 1.1

2010anthrop 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3

2010d 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.25 8.1 7.5 6.2 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3 6.5 ± 1.3

2020d 7.4 8.2 8.1 9.5 9.6 8.1 7.1 6.1 ± 1.2 6.8 ± 1.3 6.3 ± 1.2 7.7 ± 1.5

2030d 7.3 8.5 8.8 10.7 10.7 8.2 7.7 6.1 ± 1.2 7.1 ± 1.4 7.0 ± 1.4 8.6 ± 1.7

2040d 7.1 8.7 9.7 11.9 11.3 8.3 8.0 6.0 ± 1.2 7.2 ± 1.4 7.8 ± 1.5 9.6 ± 1.9

2050d 6.3 8.6 10.5 12.7 12.0 8.3 8.3 5.2 ± 1.0 7.1 ± 1.4 8.4 ± 1.6 10.3 ± 2.0

2060d 5.8 8.5 11.3 13.4 12.9 7.7 8.3 4.8 ± 0.9 7.1 ± 1.4 9.1 ± 1.8 10.8 ± 2.1

2070d 5.7 8.4 12.0 13.9 13.9 7.4 8.4 4.8 ± 0.9 7.0 ± 1.3 9.6 ± 1.9 11.2 ± 2.2

2080d 5.6 8.2 12.3 14.5 14.8 7.0 8.5 4.7 ± 0.9 6.8 ± 1.3 9.9 ± 1.9 11.7 ± 2.3

2090d 5.5 8.1 12.4 15.2 15.7 6.4 8.6 4.6 ± 0.9 6.8 ± 1.3 9.9 ± 1.9 12.3 ± 2.4

2100d 5.3 8.1 12.2 15.7 16.5 5.7 8.7 4.4 ± 0.9 6.7 ± 1.3 9.8 ± 1.9 12.6 ± 2.4

Notes:

See Table AII.2.2.

Table AII.2.3 | Anthropogenic N2O emissions (TgN yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000d 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 6.20 6.20

2010d 6.14 5.68 7.43 6.93 7.60 5.60

2020d 2.87 3.02 9.19 8.12 9.70 5.70

2030d 1.96 2.89 9.58 9.83 11.60 7.20

2040d 1.53 3.32 9.68 11.14 13.70 8.90

2050d 0.76 3.77 9.78 12.07 16.00 10.40

2060d 0.51 4.28 9.92 13.69 18.80 10.90

2070d 0.42 4.87 10.05 13.72 19.80 9.50

2080d 0.32 5.53 10.00 14.79 20.70 7.10

2090d 0.19 5.99 9.86 15.96 23.40 6.50

2100d 0.07 6.25 9.37 16.79 25.20 6.50

Table AII.2.4 | Anthropogenic SF6 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Notes:

For this and all following emissions tables, see Table AII.2.2. RCPn.n = harmonized anthropogenic emissions as reported by RCPs (Lamarque et al., 2010; 2011; Meinshausen et al., 2011a). SRES A2 

and B1 and IS92a from TAR Appendix II.

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000d 11.62 11.62 11.62 11.62 12.60 12.60

2010d 13.65 10.69 19.10 11.04 20.30 14.50

2020d 12.07 8.77 22.84 11.67 25.20 15.70

2030d 7.36 8.47 23.46 12.29 31.40 16.60

2040d 5.06 8.68 23.77 12.22 37.90 18.50

2050d 2.95 9.04 23.73 12.37 45.60 20.90

2060d 2.24 8.95 23.70 11.89 56.00 23.10

2070d 2.07 9.04 23.45 11.81 63.60 22.50

2080d 1.52 9.51 22.91 11.58 73.20 21.30

2090d 1.22 10.50 21.98 11.14 82.80 22.50

2100d 1.11 11.05 20.56 10.81 88.20 22.20

Table AII.2.5 | Anthropogenic CF4 emissions (Gg yr–1)
1413

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.2.6 | Anthropogenic C2F6 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000d 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.43 1.30 1.30

2010d 4.29 2.34 2.62 2.50 2.00 1.50

2020d 4.98 1.76 2.66 2.61 2.50 1.60

2030d 2.33 1.80 2.69 2.75 3.10 1.70

2040d 1.15 1.94 2.63 2.74 3.80 1.80

2050d 0.55 2.03 2.56 2.79 4.60 2.10

2060d 0.34 2.03 2.49 2.71 5.60 2.30

2070d 0.26 1.99 2.50 2.74 6.40 2.20

2080d 0.16 1.93 2.36 2.74 7.30 2.10

2090d 0.10 1.97 2.26 2.68 8.30 2.20

2100d 0.09 2.01 2.09 2.63 8.80 2.20

Table AII.2.7 | Anthropogenic C6F14 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000d 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.213

2010d 0.430 0.430 0.429 0.430

2020d 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.220

2030d 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123

2040d 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112

2050d 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109

2060d 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108

2070d 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106

2080d 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103

2090d 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097

2100d 0.090 0.088 0.088 0.090

Table AII.2.8 | Anthropogenic HFC-23 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000d 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 13.0 13.0

2010d 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 15.0 15.0

2020d 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 5.0 5.0

2030d 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.0 2.0

2040d 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.0 2.0

2050d 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0

2060d 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0

2070d 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0

2080d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0

2090d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0

2100d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
1414

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.2.10 | Anthropogenic HFC-125 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.11 | Anthropogenic HFC-134a emissions (Gg yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000d 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.0 0.0

2010d 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 4.0 3.0

2020d 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 6.0 6.0

2030d 71.2 71.2 71.2 71.2 9.0 8.0

2040d 78.8 78.8 78.8 78.8 11.0 10.0

2050d 76.5 76.5 76.5 76.5 14.0 14.0

2060d 83.6 83.6 83.6 83.6 17.0 14.0

2070d 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 20.0 14.0

2080d 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.4 24.0 14.0

2090d 91.0 91.0 91.0 91.0 29.0 14.0

2100d 82.7 82.7 82.7 82.7 33.0 13.0

Table AII.2.9 | Anthropogenic HFC-32 emissions (Gg yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a

2000d 8 8 8 8 0 0 0

2010d 29 18 10 32 11 11 1

2020d 82 29 9 63 21 21 9

2030d 108 32 9 79 29 29 46

2040d 122 31 10 99 35 36 111

2050d 122 30 10 115 46 48 175

2060d 138 27 11 128 56 48 185

2070d 157 24 11 139 66 48 194

2080d 165 24 12 144 79 48 199

2090d 161 23 12 147 94 46 199

2100d 150 23 12 148 106 44 199

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a

2000d 72 72 72 72 80 80 148

2010d 146 140 139 153 166 163 290

2020d 173 184 153 255 252 249 396

2030d 193 208 159 331 330 326 557

2040d 209 229 163 402 405 414 738

2050d 203 248 167 461 506 547 918

2060d 225 246 172 506 633 550 969

2070d 252 260 175 553 758 544 1020

2080d 263 299 177 602 915 533 1047

2090d 256 351 175 651 1107 513 1051

2100d 239 400 171 696 1260 486 1055
1415

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000d 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 0.0 0.0

2010d 23.1 14.0 7.0 23.2 9.0 8.0

2020d 59.1 17.4 5.4 34.1 16.0 15.0

2030d 74.7 20.3 6.0 38.5 22.0 21.0

2040d 81.8 23.1 6.6 45.1 27.0 26.0

2050d 79.0 25.6 7.1 49.8 35.0 35.0

2060d 86.1 25.9 7.7 52.3 43.0 35.0

2070d 94.2 28.2 8.3 54.1 51.0 35.0

2080d 95.1 33.5 8.7 52.7 61.0 35.0

2090d 88.7 39.6 9.0 50.2 73.0 34.0

2100d 79.2 45.1 9.1 47.3 82.0 32.0

Table AII.2.12 | Anthropogenic HFC-143a emissions (Gg yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000d 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0

2010d 7.0 5.3 6.9 8.5 12.0 13.0

2020d 2.6 1.4 2.5 2.7 17.0 18.0

2030d 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.7 21.0 24.0

2040d 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.7 26.0 30.0

2050d 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 32.0 39.0

2060d 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 40.0 40.0

2070d 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 48.0 39.0

2080d 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 58.0 38.0

2090d 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 70.0 36.0

2100d 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 80.0 34.0

Table AII.2.13 | Anthropogenic HFC-227ea emissions (Gg yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000d 11 11 11 11 0 0

2010d 42 46 53 74 59 60

2020d 32 86 65 143 79 80

2030d 7 95 67 186 98 102

2040d 0 97 68 181 121 131

2050d 0 95 69 163 149 173

2060d 0 87 70 150 190 173

2070d 0 82 71 138 228 170

2080d 0 80 70 129 276 166

2090d 0 81 68 123 334 159

2100d 0 83 65 130 388 150

Table AII.2.14 | Anthropogenic HFC-245fa emissions (Gg yr–1)
1416

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000d 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0

2010d 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.0 6.0

2020d 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 8.0 7.0

2030d 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0

2040d 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.0 9.0

2050d 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.4 11.0 11.0

2060d 11.1 11.1 11.1 12.1 12.0 11.0

2070d 11.0 11.0 11.0 13.9 14.0 11.0

2080d 11.0 11.0 10.9 16.2 16.0 11.0

2090d 10.7 10.7 10.7 18.9 19.0 11.0

2100d 10.5 10.5 10.5 21.4 22.0 10.0

Table AII.2.15 | Anthropogenic HFC-43-10mee emissions (Gg yr–1)

Table AII.2.16 | Anthropogenic CO emissions (Tg yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a

2000d 1071 1071 1071 1071 877 877 1048

2010d 1035 1041 1045 1054 977 789 1096

2020d 984 997 1028 1058 1075 751 1145

2030d 930 986 1030 1019 1259 603 1207

2040d 879 948 1046 960 1344 531 1282

2050d 825 875 1033 907 1428 471 1358

2060d 779 782 996 846 1545 459 1431

2070d 718 678 939 799 1662 456 1504

2080d 668 571 879 759 1842 426 1576

2090d 638 520 835 721 2084 399 1649

2100d 612 483 798 694 2326 363 1722

Year MFR CLE REFL REFU POLL POLU

2000d 977 977 708 1197 706 1197

2010d 771 1408 769 1408

2020d 755 1629 705 1611

2030d 729 904 707 1865 592 1803

2040d 695 2165 620 2002

2050d 591 2487 482 2218

2060d 504 2787 363 2409

2070d 450 3052 328 2558

2080d 438 3279 268 2635

2090d 410 3510 259 2714

2100d 363 3735 253 2796
1417

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a CLE MFR

2000d 213 213 213 213 141 141 126 147 147

2010d 216 209 215 217 155 141 142

2020d 213 197 214 224 179 140 158

2030d 202 201 217 225 202 131 173 146 103

2040d 192 201 222 218 214 123 188

2050d 179 191 220 209 225 116 202

2060d 167 180 214 202 238 111 218

2070d 152 167 204 194 251 103 234

2080d 140 152 193 189 275 99 251

2090d 132 145 182 182 309 96 267

2100d 126 141 174 177 342 87 283

Table AII.2.17 | Anthropogenic NMVOC emissions (Tg yr–1)

Year MFR CLE REFL REFU POLL POLU

2000d 38.0 38.0 29.1 41.6 29.1 41.6

2010d 26.0 50.2 23.9 50.1

2020d 26.3 60.4 21.6 59.2

2030d 23.1 42.9 24.4 71.8 16.5 67.4

2040d 21.5 86.3 14.1 75.3

2050d 17.0 101.7 11.6 83.3

2060d 13.2 115.7 11.4 89.8

2070d 12.0 127.5 10.5 94.6

2080d 11.5 137.2 9.6 97.2

2090d 12.0 146.2 8.8 100.1

2100d 13.0 155.0 8.0 104.0

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 CLE MFR

2000d 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 53.4 53.4

2010d 43.5 42.4 43.1 43.5

2020d 47.5 43.5 43.3 48.1

2030d 50.8 45.2 46.2 52.1 69.8 69.8

2040d 53.2 46.3 49.8 55.6

2050d 55.5 46.4 53.0 58.4

2060d 58.4 46.0 56.5 60.6

2070d 61.2 45.2 59.5 62.4

2080d 63.3 44.3 60.9 63.8

2090d 65.2 43.9 62.1 65.3

2100d 67.0 43.6 61.8 66.9

Table AII.2.18 | Anthropogenic NOX emissions (TgN yr–1)

Notes:

Odd nitrogen (NOx) emissions occur as NO or NO2, measured here as Tg of N.
1418

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.2.19 | Anthropogenic NH3 emissions (TgN yr–1)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 CLE MFR

2000d 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 53.4 53.4

2010d 43.5 42.4 43.1 43.5

2020d 47.5 43.5 43.3 48.1

2030d 50.8 45.2 46.2 52.1 69.8 69.8

2040d 53.2 46.3 49.8 55.6

2050d 55.5 46.4 53.0 58.4

2060d 58.4 46.0 56.5 60.6

2070d 61.2 45.2 59.5 62.4

2080d 63.3 44.3 60.9 63.8

2090d 65.2 43.9 62.1 65.3

2100d 67.0 43.6 61.8 66.9

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a

2000d 55.9 55.9 55.9 55.9 69.0 69.0 79.0

2010d 54.9 54.8 55.8 51.9 74.7 73.9 95.0

2020d 44.5 50.3 49.9 47.6 99.5 74.6 111.0

2030d 30.8 43.2 42.7 42.3 112.5 78.2 125.8

2040d 20.9 35.0 41.9 33.5 109.0 78.5 139.4

2050d 16.0 26.5 37.8 26.8 105.4 68.9 153.0

2060d 13.8 21.0 34.0 23.0 89.6 55.8 151.8

2070d 11.9 16.7 23.5 20.3 73.7 44.3 150.6

2080d 9.9 13.2 15.9 18.3 64.7 36.1 149.4

2090d 8.0 12.0 12.7 14.9 62.5 29.8 148.2

2100d 6.7 11.4 10.8 13.1 60.3 24.9 147.0

Year MFR CLE REFL REFU POLL POLU

2000d 55.6 55.6 50.6 76.4 50.6 76.4

2010d 53.1 81.8 52.7 78.7

2020d 56.9 84.8 47.7 77.8

2030d 17.9 58.8 60.1 86.7 29.8 76.3

2040d 52.5 82.9 19.0 72.0

2050d 44.2 72.3 12.4 61.7

2060d 32.8 73.9 9.5 52.9

2070d 30.5 77.7 7.8 49.8

2080d 29.6 81.1 6.2 50.5

2090d 22.8 84.5 5.1 52.5

2100d 18.0 88.0 4.0 54.0

Table AII.2.20 | Anthropogenic SOX emissions (TgS yr–1)

Notes:

Anthropogenic sulphur emissions as SO2, measured here as Tg of S.
1419

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a MFR* CLE*

2000d 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 81.4 81.4 81.4 35.0 35.0

2010d 36.6 34.6 36.2 35.6 89.3 74.5 85.2 29.2 34.6

2020d 36.6 30.8 36.1 34.5 97.0 71.5 89.0 28.6 32.6

2030d 35.3 29.2 36.0 33.2 111.4 59.9 93.9 27.9 30.9

2040d 32.3 28.0 36.4 31.6 118.1 54.2 99.8

2050d 30.3 26.8 36.5 30.1 124.7 49.5 105.8

2060d 29.6 25.0 35.7 28.5 133.9 48.6 111.5

2070d 28.2 22.8 34.4 27.4 143.1 48.3 117.2

2080d 27.0 20.7 33.4 26.4 157.2 46.0 122.9

2090d 26.4 19.9 32.7 25.1 176.2 43.8 128.6

2100d 25.5 19.5 32.2 24.1 195.2 41.0 134.4

Table AII.2.21 | Anthropogenic OC aerosols emissions (Tg yr–1)

Notes:

For both MFR* and CLE* 23 Tg is added to Cofala et al. (2007) values to include biomass burning.

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a MFR* CLE*

2000d 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 12.40 12.40 12.40 7.91 7.91

2010d 8.49 8.13 8.13 8.06 13.60 11.30 13.00 6.31 8.01

2020d 8.27 7.84 7.77 7.66 14.80 10.90 13.60 5.81 7.41

2030d 7.03 7.36 7.53 7.04 17.00 9.10 14.30 5.41 7.01

2040d 5.80 6.81 7.39 6.22 18.00 8.30 15.20

2050d 5.00 6.21 7.07 5.67 19.00 7.50 16.10

2060d 4.46 5.56 6.48 5.22 20.40 7.40 17.00

2070d 3.99 4.88 5.75 4.88 21.80 7.40 17.90

2080d 3.70 4.23 5.15 4.66 24.00 7.00 18.70

2090d 3.55 4.01 4.70 4.43 26.80 6.70 19.60

2100d 3.39 3.88 4.41 4.27 29.70 6.20 20.50

Table AII.2.22 | Anthropogenic BC aerosols emissions (Tg yr–1)

Notes:

For both MFR* and CLE* 2.6 Tg added to Cofala et al. (2007) values to include biomass burning.

Year Historical SRES A1

+ Biofuel SRES A2 SRES B1 SRES B2 FAO2000 Baselinea

FAO2000 

Improved a

Tilman 

2001 a

Tubiello

2007 a

1910 0.0

1920 0.2

1925 0.6

1930 0.9

1935 1.3

1940 2.2

1950 3.7

1955 6.8

1960 9.5

1965 18.7

1970 31.6

1971 33.3

1972 36.2

1973 39.1

1974 38.6

1975 43.7

Table AII.2.23 | Anthropogenic nitrogen fixation (Tg-N yr–1)
1420

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.2.23 (continued)

Year Historical SRES A1

+ Biofuel SRES A2 SRES B1 SRES B2 FAO2000 Baselinea

FAO2000 

Improved a

Tilman 

2001 a

Tubiello

2007 a

1975 43.7

1976 46.4

1977 49.9

1978 53.8

1979 57.4

1980 60.6

1981 60.3

1982 61.3

1983 67.1

1984 70.9

1985 70.2

1986 72.5

1987 75.8

1988 79.5

1989 78.9

1990 77.1

1991 75.5

1992 73.7

1993 72.3

1994 72.4

1995 78.5

1996 82.6 77.8 77.8

1997 81.4

1998 82.8

1999 84.9

2000 82.1 87.0

2001 82.9

2002 85.2

2003 90.2

2004 91.7

2005 94.2

2007 98.4

2010 104.1 101.9 101.7 96.5

2015 – – – – 106.8 88.0

2020 122.6 110.7 111.2 100.9 135.0

2030 141.1 117.6 118.4 103.3 124.5 96.2

2040 153.3 130.7 122.2 103.5

2050 165.5 131.1 123.2 101.9 236.0

2060 171.3 134.0 121.4 99.2

2070 177.0 132.1 117.5 95.6

2080 180.1 138.1 111.6 91.5 205

2090 186.0 146.5 108.8 91.3

2100 192.5 149.8 104.1 91.0

Notes:

(a) See Chapter 6, Figure 6.30 and Erisman et al. (2008) for details and sources.
1421

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

AII.3: Natural Emissions

Table AII.3.1a | Net land (natural and land use) CO2 emissions (PgC yr–1)

Table AII.3.1b | Net ocean CO2 emissions (PgC yr–1) 

Notes:

Ten-year average values are shown (2010d = average of 2005–2014). CO2 emissions are inferred from ESMs used in CMIP5 (Jones et al., 2013). See notes Table AII.2.1a and Chapter 6, Sections 

6.4.3 and 6.4.3.3 and Figure 6.24.

Notes:

See Table AII.3.1.a.

Year RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2000d –1.02 ± 0.87 –1.14 ± 0.87 –0.92 ± 0.93 –1.14 ± 0.87

2010d –1.49 ± 1.02 –1.85 ± 0.96 –1.03 ± 1.65 –1.30 ± 1.64

2020d –1.24 ± 1.35 –2.83 ± 1.47 –1.79 ± 1.95 –1.43 ± 1.82

2030d –1.28 ± 1.53 –2.84 ± 1.59 –2.37 ± 1.54 –1.76 ± 2.22

2040d –1.21 ± 1.33 –3.25 ± 1.58 –2.27 ± 1.46 –2.15 ± 2.13

2050d –1.00 ± 1.53 –3.07 ± 1.54 –1.98 ± 1.57 –2.35 ± 2.45

2060d –0.76 ± 0.83 –2.80 ± 1.83 –2.46 ± 2.01 –2.71 ± 2.38

2070d –0.68 ± 0.84 –2.59 ± 1.73 –2.40 ± 2.06 –2.57 ± 2.42

2080d –0.15 ± 0.81 –2.04 ± 1.48 –2.22 ± 2.12 –1.96 ± 2.64

2090d –0.03 ± 0.99 –2.12 ± 1.38 –2.77 ± 1.96 –1.63 ± 2.70

2100d 0.36 ± 0.95 –1.54 ± 1.25 –2.13 ± 1.32 –1.27 ± 2.90

Year RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2000d –2.09 ± 0.19 –2.14 ± 0.32 –2.10 ± 0.17 –2.14 ± 0.32

2010d –2.44 ± 0.22 –2.50 ± 0.42 –2.44 ± 0.20 –2.53 ± 0.43

2020d –2.70 ± 0.26 –2.75 ± 0.46 –2.59 ± 0.22 –3.02 ± 0.51

2030d –2.59 ± 0.30 –2.98 ± 0.52 –2.69 ± 0.22 –3.47 ± 0.54

2040d –2.22 ± 0.32 –3.16 ± 0.56 –2.88 ± 0.27 –3.96 ± 0.67

2050d –1.83 ± 0.33 –3.22 ± 0.60 –3.16 ± 0.31 –4.47 ± 0.76

2060d –1.52 ± 0.30 –3.12 ± 0.63 –3.52 ± 0.36 –4.92 ± 0.84

2070d –1.23 ± 0.23 –2.82 ± 0.61 –3.79 ± 0.41 –5.24 ± 0.97

2080d –0.99 ± 0.27 –2.46 ± 0.59 –4.02 ± 0.44 –5.40 ± 1.14

2090d –0.85 ± 0.26 –2.22 ± 0.53 –3.96 ± 0.43 –5.45 ± 1.18

2100d –0.77 ± 0.26 –2.14 ± 0.47 –3.84 ± 0.42 –5.44 ± 1.22
1422

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Year Observed RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a Min RCP8.5& Max

PI 278 ± 2 278 278 278 278 278 278 278

2011obs 390.5 ± 0.3

2000 368.9 368.9 368.9 368.9 368 368 368

2005 378.8 378.8 378.8 378.8 378.8

2010 389.3 389.1 389.1 389.3 388 387 388 366 394 413

2020 412.1 411.1 409.4 415.8 416 411 414 386 425 449

2030 430.8 435.0 428.9 448.8 448 434 442 412 461 496

2040 440.2 460.8 450.7 489.4 486 460 472 443 504 555

2050 442.7 486.5 477.7 540.5 527 485 504 482 559 627

2060 441.7 508.9 510.6 603.5 574 506 538 530 625 713

2070 437.5 524.3 549.8 677.1 628 522 575 588 703 810

2080 431.6 531.1 594.3 758.2 690 534 615 651 790 914

2090 426.0 533.7 635.6 844.8 762 542 662 722 885 1026

2100 420.9 538.4 669.7 935.9 846 544 713 794 985 ± 97 1142

AII.4: Abundances of the Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases

Table AII.4.1 | CO2 abundance (ppm)

Notes:

For observations (2011obs) see Chapter 2; and for projections see Box 1.1 (Figure 2), Sections 6.4.3.1, 11.3.1.1, 11.3.5.1.1. RCPn.n refers to values taken directly from the published RCP scenarios 

using the MAGICC model (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; 2011b). These are harmonized to match observations up to 2005 (378.8 ppm) and project future abundances thereafter. RCP8.5& shows the 

average and assessed 90% confidence interval for year 2100, plus the min-max full range derived from the CMIP5 archive for all years (P. Friedlingstein, based on Friedlingstein et al., 2006). 11 ESMs 

participated (BCC-CSM-1, CanESM2, CESM1-BGC, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGem-2ES, INMCM4, IPSLCM5-LR, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, MRI-ESM1, and Nor-ESM1-ME), running the RCP8.5 anthropogenic 

emission scenario forced by the RCP8.5 climate change scenario (see Figure 12.36). All abundances are mid-year. Projected values for SRES A2 and B1 and IS92 are the average of reference models 

taken from the TAR Appendix II.

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

PI 720 720 720 720 722 ± 25 722 ± 25 722 ± 25 722 ± 25

2011obs 1803 ± 4 1803 ± 4 1803 ± 4 1803 ± 4

2000 1751 1751 1751 1751 1760 1760 1760

2010 1773 1767 1769 1779 1861 1827 1855 1795 ± 18 1795 ± 18 1795 ± 18 1795 ± 18

2020 1731 1801 1786 1924 1997 1891 1979 1716 ± 23 1847 ± 21 1811 ± 22 1915 ± 25

2030 1600 1830 1796 2132 2163 1927 2129 1562 ± 38 1886 ± 28 1827 ± 28 2121 ± 44

2040 1527 1842 1841 2399 2357 1919 2306 1463 ± 50 1903 ± 37 1880 ± 36 2412 ± 74

2050 1452 1833 1895 2740 2562 1881 2497 1353 ± 60 1899 ± 47 1941 ± 48 2784 ± 116

2060 1365 1801 1939 3076 2779 1836 2663 1230 ± 71 1872 ± 59 1994 ± 61 3152 ± 163

2070 1311 1745 1962 3322 3011 1797 2791 1153 ± 78 1824 ± 72 2035 ± 77 3428 ± 208

2080 1285 1672 1940 3490 3252 1741 2905 1137 ± 88 1756 ± 87 2033 ± 94 3624 ± 250

2090 1268 1614 1819 3639 3493 1663 3019 1135 ± 98 1690 ± 100 1908 ± 111 3805 ± 293

2100 1254 1576 1649 3751 3731 1574 3136 1127 ± 106 1633 ± 110 1734 ± 124 3938 ± 334

Table AII.4.2 | CH4 abundance (ppb)

Notes:

RCPn.n refers to values taken directly from the published RCP scenarios using the MAGICC model (Meinshausen et al., 2011b) and initialized in year 2005 at 1754 ppb. Values for SRES A2 and B1 

and IS92 are from the TAR Appendix II. RCPn.n& values are best estimates with uncertainties (68% confidence intervals) from Chapter 11 (Section 11.3.5) based on Holmes et al. (2013) and using 

RCP& emissions and uncertainties tabulated above. For RCP& the PI, year 2011 and year 2010 values are based on observations. RCP models used slightly different PI abundances than recommended 

here (Table AII.1.1, Chapter 2).
1423

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.4.3 | N2O abundance (ppb)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

PI 272 272 272 272 270 ± 7 270 ± 7 270 ± 7 270 ± 7

2011obs 324 ± 1 324 ± 1 324 ± 1 324 ± 1

2000 316 316 316 316 316 316 316

2010 323 323 323 323 325 324 324 323 ± 3 323 ± 3 323 ± 3 323 ± 3

2020 329 330 330 332 335 333 333 330 ± 4 331 ± 4 331 ± 4 332 ± 4

2030 334 337 337 342 347 341 343 336 ± 5 339 ± 5 338 ± 5 342 ± 6

2040 339 344 345 354 360 349 353 342 ± 6 346 ± 7 346 ± 7 353 ± 8

2050 342 351 355 367 373 357 363 346 ± 8 353 ± 9 355 ± 9 365 ± 11

2060 343 356 365 381 387 363 372 349 ± 9 360 ± 10 364 ± 11 377 ± 13

2070 344 361 376 394 401 368 381 351 ± 10 365 ± 12 374 ± 13 389 ± 16

2080 344 366 386 408 416 371 389 352 ± 11 370 ± 13 384 ± 15 401 ± 18

2090 344 369 397 421 432 374 396 353 ± 11 374 ± 14 393 ± 17 413 ± 21

2100 344 372 406 435 447 375 403 354 ± 12 378 ± 16 401 ± 19 425 ± 24

Notes:

See notes Table AII.4.2.

Table AII.4.4 | SF6 abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 Obs

2011obs 7.3 ± 0.1

2010 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7 7

2020 8.9 8.7 10.3 9.9 11 9

2030 9.7 9.7 14.1 13.4 15 12

2040 10.4 10.9 17.9 17.6 20 15

2050 10.8 12.3 21.7 22.1 26 19

2060 11.0 13.8 25.6 27.2 32 23

2070 11.2 15.6 29.5 32.6 40 27

2080 11.3 17.6 33.4 38.1 48 30

2090 11.4 19.9 37.3 44.1 56 33

2100 11.4 22.3 41.0 50.5 65 35

Notes:

Projected SF6 and PFC abundances (Tables AII.4.4 to AII.4.7) taken directly from RCPs (Meinshausen et al., 2011a). Observed values shown for year 2011.

Table AII.4.5 | CF4 abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 Obs

2011 obs 79.0

2010 84 83 85 83 92 91

2020 93 90 99 91 107 101

2030 99 95 115 99 125 111

2040 103 101 130 107 148 122

2050 106 107 146 115 175 135

2060 108 113 162 123 208 150

2070 109 119 177 131 246 164

2080 110 125 193 138 291 179

2090 111 131 207 146 341 193

2100 112 138 222 153 397 208
1424

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.4.6 | C2F6 abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 Obs

2011 obs 4.2

2010 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 4 4

2020 6.2 4.8 5.0 5.0 5 4

2030 7.9 5.5 6.2 6.1 6 5

2040 8.6 6.3 7.3 7.2 7 6

2050 8.9 7.1 8.4 8.4 9 7

2060 9.1 7.9 9.4 9.6 11 8

2070 9.2 8.8 10.5 10.7 14 8

2080 9.3 9.6 11.5 11.8 17 9

2090 9.3 10.4 12.5 13.0 20 10

2100 9.3 11.3 13.4 14.1 23 11

Table AII.4.7 | C6F14 abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2010 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

2020 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

2030 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

2040 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18

2050 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20

2060 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21

2070 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23

2080 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

2090 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27

2100 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28

Table AII.4.8 | HFC-23 abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2011obs 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

2010 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 26 26 23.2 ± 1 23.2 ± 1 23.2 ± 1 23.2 ± 1

2020 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 33 33 26.6 ± 1 26.6 ± 1 26.6 ± 1 26.6 ± 1

2030 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 35 35 26.3 ± 1 26.3 ± 1 26.3 ± 1 26.3 ± 1

2040 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 35 35 25.7 ± 1 25.8 ± 1 25.8 ± 1 25.8 ± 1

2050 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 35 35 24.9 ± 1 25.0 ± 1 25.1 ± 1 25.1 ± 1

2060 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.3 35 34 24.0 ± 1 24.2 ± 1 24.3 ± 1 24.4 ± 1

2070 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.6 34 34 23.0 ± 1 23.4 ± 1 23.4 ± 1 23.6 ± 1

2080 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.8 34 33 22.1 ± 1 22.5 ± 1 22.6 ± 1 22.8 ± 1

2090 22.4 22.5 22.7 23.0 34 33 21.2 ± 1 21.6 ± 1 21.8 ± 1 22.1 ± 1

2100 21.6 21.6 21.9 22.3 33 32 20.3 ± 1 20.8 ± 1 21.0 ± 1 21.3 ± 1

Notes:

RCPn.n HFC abundances (Tables AII.4.8 to AII.4.15) are as reported (Meinshausen et al., 2011a). SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a (where available) are taken from TAR Appendix II. Observed values are 

shown for 2011 (see Chapter 2, and Table AII.1.1). The AR5 RCPn.n& abundances are calculated starting with observed abundances (adopted for 2010) and future tropospheric OH changes using 

the methodology of Prather et al. (2012), updated for uncertainty in lifetime and scenario changes in OH using Holmes et al. (2013) and ACCMIP results (Stevenson et al., 2013; Voulgarakis et al., 

2013). Projected RCP& abundances are best estimates with 68% confidence range as uncertainties. See also notes Tables AII.4.2 and AII.5.9.
1425

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.4.9 | HFC-32 abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2011obs 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9

2010 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 1 1 4.1 ± 0 4.1 ± 0 4.1 ± 0 4.1 ± 0

2020 21.0 21.0 21.1 21.1 3 3 23.8 ± 2 24.0 ± 2 24.0 ± 2 24.0 ± 2

2030 34.7 35.2 35.5 35.8 4 4 38.1 ± 5 39.1 ± 5 39.1 ± 5 39.2 ± 5

2040 41.1 41.9 42.4 43.6 6 5 44.7 ± 6 46.7 ± 6 46.9 ± 6 47.8 ± 6

2050 41.9 42.8 43.9 46.2 7 7 44.3 ± 7 47.6 ± 7 48.2 ± 7 50.3 ± 8

2060 43.1 43.8 45.6 48.8 9 8 45.0 ± 7 49.6 ± 8 50.6 ± 8 53.8 ± 8

2070 47.9 48.1 50.7 54.7 11 8 49.4 ± 8 54.9 ± 8 56.8 ± 9 60.3 ± 9

2080 51.3 50.5 54.0 58.6 14 8 53.8 ± 9 58.2 ± 9 61.4 ± 10 64.7 ± 10

2090 51.0 49.6 52.8 58.2 17 8 54.0 ± 9 56.9 ±10 60.6 ± 10 64.4 ± 11

2100 47.5 45.6 47.4 53.8 20 8 50.5 ± 9 51.8 ± 9 55.2 ± 10 59.6 ± 11

Table AII.4.10 | HFC-125 abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2011obs 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6

2010 7.1 6.4 5.7 7.7 2 2 0 8.2 ± 1 8.2 ± 1 8.2 ± 1 8.2 ± 1

2020 27.4 14.3 7.6 25.7 8 8 2 30.9 ± 1 16.3 ± 1 9.6 ± 1 27.6 ± 1

2030 60.0 23.2 9.2 48.5 16 16 12 64.1 ± 3 25.2 ± 2 10.9 ± 1 51.0 ± 3

2040 90.5 29.7 10.6 72.0 24 24 40 95.5 ± 7 31.9 ± 3 12.2 ± 1 75.9 ± 5

2050 114.5 34.0 11.8 97.6 34 33 87 119.5 ± 11 36.6 ± 4 13.3 ± 2 103 ± 8

2060 133.4 36.0 12.9 122.9 45 43 137 139.0 ± 15 39.0 ± 5 14.4 ± 2 130 ± 12

2070 154.8 35.8 13.9 147.1 58 49 177 160.8 ± 20 39.4 ± 6 15.5 ± 2 156 ± 16

2080 176.2 34.8 14.8 168.7 72 54 210 183.2 ± 24 39.1 ± 6 16.6 ± 2 180 ± 20

2090 192.3 34.0 15.5 185.8 89 57 236 200.9 ± 29 38.7 ± 7 17.4 ± 3 199 ± 25

2100 200.2 33.2 15.8 198.9 107 58 255 210.5 ± 34 38.1 ± 7 18.0 ± 3 215 ± 30

Table AII.4.11 | HFC-134a abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2011 63 ± 1 63 ± 1 63 ± 1 63 ± 1

2010 56 56 56 56 55 55 94 58 ± 3 58 ± 3 58 ± 3 58 ± 3

2020 96 95 90 112 111 108 183 97 ± 5 98 ± 5 91 ± 5 117 ± 5

2030 122 129 109 180 170 165 281 123 ± 9 132 ± 9 110 ± 8 184 ± 11

2040 142 154 121 245 231 223 401 143 ± 12 157 ± 12 122 ± 10 249 ± 17

2050 153 175 129 311 299 293 537 150 ± 15 178 ± 16 130 ± 12 314 ± 24

2060 160 187 135 370 382 352 657 155 ± 16 192 ± 19 137 ± 14 373 ± 32

2070 175 193 141 423 480 380 743 168 ± 18 200 ± 21 143 ± 15 427 ± 39

2080 191 205 144 471 594 391 807 184 ± 21 216 ± 23 148 ± 16 476 ± 47

2090 200 229 144 517 729 390 850 193 ± 23 242 ± 26 150 ± 18 524 ± 56

2100 199 262 141 561 877 379 878 192 ± 25 275 ± 30 148 ± 19 570 ± 64
1426

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.4.12 | HFC-143a abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2011 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0

2010 10.2 9.4 8.4 10.8 3 2 11 ± 1 11 ± 1 11 ± 1 11 ± 1

2020 33.9 17.8 10.1 28.2 10 9 37 ± 1 19 ± 1 12 ± 1 29 ± 1

2030 72.1 26.8 12.1 46.8 20 18 75 ± 2 28 ± 1 14 ± 1 48 ± 1

2040 109.9 36.0 14.0 65.6 32 29 13 ± 4 38 ± 1 16 ± 1 67 ± 2

2050 142.1 45.4 16.0 85.7 45 43 144 ± 6 47 ± 2 18 ± 1 88 ± 3

2060 168.6 54.0 18.1 105.2 62 57 170 ± 8 56 ± 3 20 ± 1 107 ± 4

2070 196.1 61.4 20.1 123.2 81 68 197 ± 11 64 ± 3 22 ± 1 126 ± 6

2080 222.2 69.7 22.2 138.7 103 77 223 ± 14 73 ± 4 24 ± 2 142 ± 8

2090 242.0 80.2 24.0 150.2 129 85 243 ± 17 85 ± 5 26 ± 2 154 ± 9

2100 252.9 92.6 25.6 157.9 157 90 254 ± 20 98 ± 6 28 ± 2 163 ± 11

Table AII.4.13 | HFC-227ea abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2011 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65

2010 1.43 1.28 1.42 1.56 2 2 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.1

2020 2.81 2.10 2.78 3.30 5 6 2.0 ± 0.1 1.5 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.1 2.4 ± 0.1

2030 2.48 1.71 2.44 2.77 10 10 2.0 ± 0.1 1.3 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.1 2.2 ± 0.1

2040 2.09 1.35 2.04 2.29 14 15 1.8 ± 0.1 1.1 ± 0.1 1.8 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.2

2050 1.74 1.06 1.68 1.92 19 21 1.6 ± 0.2 1.0 ± 0.1 1.6 ± 0.2 1.8 ± 0.2

2060 1.35 0.81 1.31 1.55 25 27 1.3 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.1 1.3 ± 0.2 1.5 ± 0.2

2070 1.04 0.61 1.01 1.23 32 31 1.1 ± 0.2 0.6 ± 0.1 1.1 ± 0.2 1.3 ± 0.2

2080 0.81 0.45 0.78 0.99 40 34 0.9 ± 0.2 0.5 ± 0.1 0.9 ± 0.2 1.1 ± 0.2

2090 0.63 0.34 0.59 0.79 49 35 0.8 ± 0.2 0.4 ± 0.1 0.8 ± 0.2 0.9 ± 0.2

2100 1.43 1.28 1.42 1.56 2 2 0.6 ± 0.2 0.3 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 0.2

Table AII.4.14 | HFC-245fa abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2011 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24

2010 7.5 7.3 8.2 9.5 8 8 1 ± 0.2 1 ± 0.2 1 ± 0.2 1 ± 0.2

2020 12.1 19.3 18.1 31.5 17 17 10.2 ± 1 18.9 ± 2 16.4 ± 2 31.0 ± 4

2030 7.4 28.2 21.3 51.2 23 23 6.6 ± 1.5 29.2 ± 4 21.6 ± 3 53.1 ± 8

2040 2.3 31.2 22.6 61.7 29 29 2.2 ± 1.0 33.0 ± 6 23.7 ± 4 63.8 ± 10

2050 0.6 31.9 23.3 62.0 36 38 0.7 ± 0.5 34.1 ± 7 24.6 ± 5 64.4 ± 12

2060 0.2 30.6 23.8 59.1 46 43 0.2 ± 0.2 32.9 ± 7 25.3 ± 5 61.7 ± 13

2070 0.0 28.2 24.2 55.3 58 44 0.1 ± 0.1 30.8 ± 7 25.9 ± 5 58.1 ± 13

2080 0.0 26.4 24.3 51.5 72 43 0.0 ± 0.1 29.3 ± 7 26.4 ± 6 54.4 ± 12

2090 0.0 25.8 23.6 48.0 88 42 0.0 ± 0.0 28.6 ± 6 26.0 ± 6 51.0 ± 12

2100 0.0 26.0 22.3 47.3 105 40 0.0 ± 0.0 28.6 ± 6 24.9 ± 6 50.6 ± 11
1427

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.4.15 | HFC-43-10mee abundance (ppt)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2011 — — — —

2010 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 1 1 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0

2020 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.47 2 1 1.2 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.1

2030 2.09 2.11 2.12 2.14 2 2 2.0 ± 0.2 2.1 ± 0.2 2.1 ± 0.2 2.1 ± 0.2

2040 2.61 2.64 2.66 2.68 3 2 2.7 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3

2050 3.13 3.17 3.22 3.23 3 3 3.3 ± 0.4 3.4 ± 0.4 3.4 ± 0.4 3.4 ± 0.4

2060 3.56 3.61 3.70 3.83 4 3 3.7 ± 0.6 3.9 ± 0.6 4.0 ± 0.6 4.1 ± 0.6

2070 3.78 3.81 3.96 4.52 4 4 3.9 ± 0.7 4.3 ± 0.7 4.3 ± 0.7 4.9 ± 0.7

2080 3.89 3.88 4.08 5.27 5 4 4.1 ± 0.8 4.4 ± 0.8 4.6 ± 0.8 5.8 ± 0.9

2090 3.93 3.87 4.10 6.14 6 4 4.2 ± 0.8 4.5 ± 0.8 4.7 ± 0.9 6.7 ± 1.0

2100 3.91 3.81 3.99 7.12 7 4 4.2 ± 0.9 4.4 ± 0.9 4.6 ± 0.9 7.9 ± 1.2

Table AII.4.16 | Montreal Protocol greenhouse gas abundances (ppt)

Year CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl4 CH3CCl3 HCFC-22

2011* 238 ± 1 528 ± 2 74.5 ± 0.5 15.8 8.4 86 ± 2 6.4 ± 0.4 213 ± 2

2010 240.9 532.5 75.6 16.4 8.4 87.6 8.3 206.8

2020 213.0 492.8 67.4 15.8 8.4 70.9 1.5 301.8

2030 182.6 448.0 59.9 15.1 8.4 54.4 0.2 265.4

2040 153.5 405.8 53.3 14.4 8.4 40.3 0.0 151.0

2050 127.2 367.3 47.4 13.6 8.4 29.2 0.0 71.1

2060 104.4 332.4 42.1 12.9 8.3 20.0 0.0 31.5

2070 85.2 300.7 37.4 12.3 8.3 13.6 0.0 13.7

2080 69.1 272.1 33.3 11.6 8.2 9.3 0.0 5.9

2090 55.9 246.2 29.6 11.1 8.2 6.3 0.0 2.6

2100 45.1 222.8 26.3 10.5 8.1 4.3 0.0 1.1

Year HCFC-141b HCFC-142b Halon 1211 Halon 1202 Halon 1301 Halon 2402 CH3Br CH3Cl

2011* 21.4 ± 0.5 21.2 ± 0.5 4.07 0.00 3.23 0.45 7.1 534

2010 20.3 20.5 4.07 0.00 3.20 0.46 7.2 550

2020 30.9 30.9 3.08 0.00 3.29 0.38 7.1 550

2030 34.4 31.2 2.06 0.00 3.19 0.27 7.1 550

2040 27.9 23.3 1.30 0.00 2.97 0.18 7.1 550

2050 19.3 14.9 0.78 0.00 2.71 0.12 7.1 550

2060 12.4 9.0 0.46 0.00 2.43 0.07 7.1 550

2070 7.7 5.2 0.26 0.00 2.16 0.05 7.1 550

2080 4.7 3.0 0.15 0.00 1.90 0.03 7.1 550

2090 2.9 1.7 0.08 0.00 1.66 0.02 7.1 550

2100 1.7 0.9 0.05 0.00 1.44 0.01 7.1 550

Notes:

Present day (2011*) is from Chapter 2; projections are from Scenario A1, WMO Ozone Assessment (WMO 2010).
1428

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes

Table AII.5.1 | Stratospheric O3 column changes (DU)

Notes:

Observed O3 columns and trends taken from WMO (Douglass and Filetov, 2010), subtracting tropospheric column O3 (Table AII.5.2) with uncertainty estimates driven by polar variability. CMIP5 

RCP results are from Eyring et al. (2013). The multi-model mean is derived from the CMIP5 models with predictive (interactive or semi-offline) stratospheric and tropospheric ozone chemistry. The 

absolute value is shown for year 2000. All other years are differences relative to (minus) year 2000. The multi-model standard deviation is shown only for year 2000; it does not change much over 

time; and, representing primarily the spread in absolute O3 column, it is larger than the standard deviation of the changes (not evaluated here). All models used the same projections for ozonedepleting substances. Near-term differences in projected O3 columns across scenarios reflect model sampling (i.e., different sets of models contributing to each RCP), while long-term changes reflect 

changes in N2O, CH4 and climate. See Section 11.3.5.1.2.

Year Obs RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

1850 17 17 17 17

1980 11 15 15 15 15

2000 269 ± 8 276 ± 9 276 ± 9 276 ± 9 276 ± 9

2010 0 2 –1 1 –2

2020 4 0 3 2

2030 8 4 7 5

2040 9 7 10 9

2050 12 10 13 12

2060 13 12 14 15

2070 13 11 15 16

2080 12 11 16 15

2090 13 12 16 18

2100 15 13 17 20

Table AII.5.2 | Tropospheric O3 column changes (DU)

Year CMIP5 ACCMIP

RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

1850 –10.2 –10.2 –10.2 –10.2 –8.9 –8.9 –8.9 –8.9

1980 –2.0 –2.0 –2.0 –2.0 –1.3 –1.3 –1.3 –1.3

2000 31.1 ± 3.3 31.1 ± 3.3 31.1 ± 3.3 31.1 ± 3.3 30.8 ± 2.1 30.8 ± 2.1 30.8 ± 2.1 30.8 ± 2.1

2010 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.8

2020 1.0 0.9 1.0 2.1

2030 0.6 1.5 1.4 3.5 –1.3 1.0 –0.1 1.8

2040 0.5 1.6 2.1 4.5

2050 0.0 1.7 2.4 5.7

2060 –0.7 1.3 2.6 7.1

2070 –1.6 0.5 2.3 8.1

2080 –2.5 –0.1 2.0 8.9

2090 –2.8 –0.4 1.5 9.5

2100 –3.1 –0.5 1.1 10.2 –5.4 –2.2 –2.6 5.3

(continued on next page)
1429

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Year A2 B1 IS92a CLE MFR

1850

1980

2000 34.0 34.0 34.0 32.6 32.6

2010 1.7 0.8 1.5

2020 4.2 1.6 3.1

2030 6.8 1.9 4.7 1.5 ± 0.8 –1.4 ± 0.4

2040 8.6 1.8 6.1

2050 10.2 1.0 7.6

2060 11.7 0.0 8.9

2070 13.2 –0.9 10.0

2080 15.3 –1.9 11.1

2090 18.0 –2.8 12.1

2100 20.8 –3.9 13.2

Notes:

RCP results from CMIP5 (Eyring et al., 2013) and ACCMIP (Young et al., 2013). For ACCMIP all models have interactive tropospheric ozone chemistry and are included, in contrast to the CMIP5 multimodel mean which includes only those models with predictive (interactive or semi-offline) stratospheric and tropospheric ozone chemistry. The absolute value is shown for year 2000. All other years 

are differences relative to (minus) year 2000. The multi-model standard deviation is shown only for year 2000; it does not change much over time; and, representing primarily the spread in absolute 

O3 columns, it is larger than the standard deviation of the changes across individual models (not evaluated here). SRES values are from TAR Appendix II. CLE/MFR scenarios are from Dentener et al. 

(2005, 2006): CLE includes climate change, MFR does not. See Section 11.3.5.1.2.

Table AII.5.2 (continued)

Table AII.5.3 | Total aerosol optical depth (AOD)

Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

1860d 0.056 0.101 0.161 0.094 0.101 0.092 0.100

1870d 0.058 0.102 0.162 0.095 0.102 0.094 0.101

1180d 0.058 0.102 0.163 0.095 0.102 0.094 0.101

1890d 0.059 0.104 0.164 0.098 0.104 0.096 0.103

1900d 0.058 0.105 0.166 0.099 0.105 0.097 0.104

1910d 0.059 0.107 0.169 0.101 0.107 0.099 0.106

1920d 0.060 0.108 0.170 0.102 0.108 0.100 0.107

1930d 0.061 0.110 0.173 0.104 0.110 0.101 0.109

1940d 0.061 0.111 0.175 0.105 0.111 0.103 0.110

1950d 0.060 0.115 0.181 0.108 0.115 0.106 0.113

1960d 0.064 0.122 0.192 0.116 0.122 0.113 0.120

1970d 0.065 0.130 0.204 0.123 0.130 0.120 0.128

1980d 0.066 0.135 0.221 0.127 0.135 0.124 0.133

1990d 0.068 0.138 0.231 0.129 0.138 0.126 0.135

2000d 0.068 0.136 0.232 0.127 0.136 0.124 0.134

2010d 0.127 0.137 0.124 0.133

2020d 0.123 0.134 0.122 0.132

2030d 0.117 0.130 0.119 0.130

2040d 0.111 0.126 0.118 0.126

2050d 0.108 0.123 0.117 0.124

2060d 0.106 0.119 0.116 0.121

2070d 0.105 0.116 0.110 0.120

2080d 0.103 0.114 0.107 0.118

2090d 0.102 0.112 0.106 0.118

2100d 0.101 0.111 0.105 0.117

Number of models 21 15 21 13 19

Notes:

Multi-model decadal global means (2030d = 2025–2034, 2100d = 2095–2100) from CMIP5 models reporting AOD. The numbers of models for each experiment are indicated in the bottom row. 

The full range of models (given only for historical period for AOD and AAOD) is large and systematic in that models tend to scale relative to one another. Historical estimates for different RCPs vary 

because of the models included. RCP4.5 included the full set of CMIP5 models contributing aerosol results (21). The standard deviation of the models is 28% (AOD) and 62% (AAOD) (N. Mahowald, 

CMIP5 archive; Lamarque et al., 2013; Shindell et al., 2013). See Sections 11.3.5.1.3 and 11.3.6.1.
1430

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.5.4 | Absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD)

Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

1860d 0.00050 0.0035 0.0054 0.0033 0.0035 0.0031 0.0035

1870d 0.00060 0.0035 0.0054 0.0033 0.0035 0.0032 0.0036

1180d 0.00060 0.0036 0.0054 0.0034 0.0036 0.0032 0.0036

1890d 0.00060 0.0036 0.0055 0.0035 0.0036 0.0033 0.0037

1900d 0.00070 0.0037 0.0056 0.0035 0.0037 0.0033 0.0038

1910d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0057 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0038

1920d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0058 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0039

1930d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0057 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0038

1940d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0057 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0039

1950d 0.00070 0.0038 0.0058 0.0036 0.0038 0.0034 0.0039

1960d 0.00080 0.0040 0.0059 0.0038 0.0040 0.0036 0.0040

1970d 0.00090 0.0042 0.0065 0.0040 0.0042 0.0038 0.0043

1980d 0.00100 0.0046 0.0073 0.0044 0.0046 0.0042 0.0046

1990d 0.00110 0.0049 0.0079 0.0047 0.0049 0.0044 0.0049

2000d 0.00120 0.0050 0.0084 0.0048 0.0050 0.0045 0.0051

2010d 0.0050 0.0051 0.0046 0.0051

2020d 0.0050 0.0050 0.0045 0.0050

2030d 0.0047 0.0049 0.0045 0.0049

2040d 0.0043 0.0048 0.0044 0.0047

2050d 0.0041 0.0046 0.0044 0.0046

2060d 0.0039 0.0044 0.0043 0.0045

2070d 0.0037 0.0042 0.0041 0.0044

2080d 0.0037 0.0040 0.0039 0.0043

2090d 0.0036 0.0039 0.0038 0.0043

2100d 0.0036 0.0039 0.0038 0.0042

Number of models 14 11 14 10 12

Notes:

See notes Table AII.5.3.

Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

1860d 0.09 0.61 1.42 0.60 0.61 0.57 0.60

1870d 0.10 0.62 1.45 0.62 0.62 0.59 0.61

1180d 0.12 0.65 1.49 0.64 0.65 0.61 0.64

1890d 0.16 0.68 1.57 0.67 0.68 0.64 0.66

1900d 0.21 0.73 1.65 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.72

1910d 0.23 0.79 1.80 0.79 0.79 0.76 0.78

1920d 0.23 0.83 1.84 0.83 0.83 0.80 0.81

1930d 0.24 0.87 1.94 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.86

1940d 0.25 0.93 2.05 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.92

1950d 0.27 1.03 2.21 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.01

1960d 0.31 1.25 2.67 1.29 1.25 1.24 1.23

1970d 0.35 1.48 3.14 1.52 1.48 1.45 1.47

1980d 0.37 1.58 3.33 1.62 1.58 1.54 1.58

1990d 0.37 1.59 3.31 1.63 1.59 1.55 1.60

2000d 0.37 1.55 3.17 1.59 1.55 1.53 1.56

Table AII.5.5 | Sulphate aerosol atmospheric burden (TgS)

(continued on next page)
1431

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII Notes:

See notes Table AII.5.3. The standard deviation of the models is about 50% for sulphate, OC and BC aerosol loadings (N. Mahowald, CMIP5 archive; Lamarque et al., 2013; Shindell et al., 2013).

Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2010d 1.57 1.59 1.52 1.54

2020d 1.43 1.54 1.43 1.51

2030d 1.21 1.44 1.33 1.44

2040d 1.03 1.31 1.34 1.31

2050d 0.94 1.16 1.29 1.20

2060d 0.90 1.05 1.24 1.13

2070d 0.86 0.96 1.06 1.08

2080d 0.81 0.88 0.92 1.05

2090d 0.76 0.85 0.86 0.98

2100d 0.71 0.83 0.80 0.94

Number of models 18 12 18 10 16

Table AII.5.5 | (continued)

Table AII.5.6 | OC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg)

Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

1860d 0.34 1.08 2.7 1.09 1.08 1.13 1.12

1870d 0.35 1.09 2.7 1.10 1.09 1.14 1.13

1180d 0.36 1.09 2.7 1.11 1.09 1.15 1.14

1890d 0.35 1.10 2.8 1.12 1.10 1.16 1.15

1900d 0.36 1.11 2.8 1.12 1.11 1.16 1.15

1910d 0.33 1.10 2.8 1.11 1.10 1.15 1.15

1920d 0.34 1.08 2.7 1.09 1.08 1.12 1.13

1930d 0.33 1.07 2.6 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.12

1940d 0.33 1.07 2.6 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.12

1950d 0.36 1.08 2.6 1.08 1.08 1.11 1.12

1960d 0.41 1.13 2.7 1.13 1.13 1.17 1.17

1970d 0.46 1.20 2.9 1.22 1.20 1.26 1.24

1980d 0.54 1.28 3.1 1.32 1.28 1.36 1.33

1990d 0.53 1.38 3.3 1.44 1.38 1.48 1.43

2000d 0.53 1.41 3.5 1.47 1.41 1.52 1.46

2010d 1.59 1.21 1.55 1.29

2020d 1.59 1.12 1.56 1.26

2030d 1.56 1.08 1.55 1.25

2040d 1.47 1.06 1.57 1.22

2050d 1.41 1.04 1.57 1.20

2060d 1.40 1.01 1.56 1.17

2070d 1.36 0.96 1.55 1.14

2080d 1.33 0.92 1.55 1.13

2090d 1.32 0.90 1.54 1.10

2100d 1.30 0.89 1.55 1.09

Number of models 19 12 19 10 17

Notes:

See notes Table AII.5.5.
1432

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.5.7 | BC aerosol atmospheric burden (Tg)

Year (Min) Historical (Max) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

1860d 0.037 0.059 0.127 0.058 0.059 0.057 0.059

1870d 0.039 0.063 0.133 0.062 0.063 0.061 0.064

1180d 0.040 0.068 0.139 0.066 0.068 0.065 0.069

1890d 0.043 0.075 0.149 0.070 0.075 0.070 0.076

1900d 0.045 0.082 0.156 0.076 0.082 0.075 0.083

1910d 0.048 0.089 0.167 0.081 0.089 0.081 0.091

1920d 0.049 0.092 0.167 0.083 0.092 0.082 0.095

1930d 0.049 0.090 0.161 0.082 0.090 0.081 0.092

1940d 0.051 0.091 0.162 0.082 0.091 0.082 0.093

1950d 0.053 0.094 0.165 0.085 0.094 0.085 0.096

1960d 0.061 0.102 0.179 0.094 0.102 0.094 0.105

1970d 0.071 0.115 0.201 0.107 0.115 0.107 0.117

1980d 0.088 0.141 0.245 0.130 0.141 0.130 0.144

1990d 0.098 0.157 0.274 0.146 0.157 0.145 0.161

2000d 0.101 0.164 0.293 0.153 0.164 0.152 0.169

2010d 0.170 0.174 0.157 0.170

2020d 0.169 0.174 0.152 0.164

2030d 0.144 0.166 0.147 0.153

2040d 0.120 0.155 0.144 0.138

2050d 0.103 0.141 0.138 0.127

2060d 0.091 0.126 0.127 0.118

2070d 0.081 0.110 0.113 0.110

2080d 0.075 0.094 0.101 0.106

2090d 0.071 0.087 0.092 0.102

2100d 0.068 0.084 0.087 0.099

Number of models 19 13 19 11 17

Notes:

See notes Table AII.5.5.

Year RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5& RCP2.6^ RCP4.5^ RCP6.0^ RCP8.5^

2000 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3

2010 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3

2020 11.0 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.3

2030 10.8 ± 1.3 11.3 ± 1.4 11.3 ± 1.4 11.4 ± 1.4 10.6 ± 1.4 11.4 ± 2.1 11.1 ± 1.4 11.2 ± 1.4

2040 10.6 ± 1.3 11.3 ± 1.4 11.4 ± 1.4 11.8 ± 1.4

2050 10.2 ± 1.3 11.3 ± 1.4 11.5 ± 1.4 12.2 ± 1.5

2060 9.9 ± 1.3 11.2 ± 1.4 11.6 ± 1.4 12.6 ± 1.6

2070 9.9 ± 1.4 11.2 ± 1.5 11.8 ± 1.5 12.6 ± 1.7

2080 10.4 ± 1.5 11.1 ± 1.5 11.9 ± 1.6 12.6 ± 1.8

2090 10.4 ± 1.6 10.9 ± 1.6 11.7 ± 1.7 12.6 ± 1.8

2100 10.6 ± 1.6 10.7 ± 1.6 11.4 ± 1.8 12.5 ± 1.9 10.7 ± 1.6 10.1 ± 1.5 11.1 ± 1.8 12.1 ± 2.0

Table AII.5.8 | CH4 atmospheric lifetime (yr) against loss by tropospheric OH

Notes:

RCPn.n& lifetimes based on best estimate with uncertainty for 2000–2010 (Prather et al., 2012) and then projecting changes in key factors (Holmes et al., 2013). All uncertainties are 68% confidence 

intervals. RCPn.n^ lifetimes are from ACCMIP results (Voulgarakis et al., 2013) scaled to 11.2 ± 1.3 yr for year 2000; the ACCMIP mean and standard deviation in 2000 are 9.8 ± 1.5 yr. Projected 

ACCMIP values combine the present day uncertainty with the model standard deviation of future change. Note that the total atmospheric lifetime of CH4 must include other losses (e.g., stratosphere, 

surface, tropospheric chlorine), and for 2010 it is 9.1 ± 0.9 yr, see Chapter 8, Section 11.3.5.1.1.
1433

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Year RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

2010 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10

2020 130 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10 131 ± 10

2030 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 130 ± 10

2040 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 130 ± 10 129 ± 10

2050 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 129 ± 10

2060 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 129 ± 10 128 ± 10

2070 129 ± 11 128 ± 11 128 ± 10 128 ± 11

2080 128 ± 11 128 ± 11 128 ± 11 127 ± 11

2090 128 ± 11 128 ± 11 127 ± 11 127 ± 11

2100 128 ± 11 127 ± 11 127 ± 11 126 ± 11

Table AII.5.9 | N2O atmospheric lifetime (yr)

Notes:

RCPn.n& lifetimes based on projections from Fleming et al. (2011) and Prather et al. (2012). All uncertainties are 68% confidence intervals.

AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing

Table AII.6.1 | ERF from CO2 (W m–2)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a

2000 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.50

2010 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.78 1.77 1.78

2020 2.11 2.09 2.07 2.15 2.16 2.09 2.13

2030 2.34 2.40 2.32 2.56 2.55 2.38 2.48

2040 2.46 2.70 2.58 3.03 2.99 2.69 2.83

2050 2.49 2.99 2.90 3.56 3.42 2.98 3.18

2060 2.48 3.23 3.25 4.15 3.88 3.20 3.53

2070 2.43 3.39 3.65 4.76 4.36 3.37 3.89

2080 2.35 3.46 4.06 5.37 4.86 3.49 4.25

2090 2.28 3.49 4.42 5.95 5.39 3.57 4.64

2100 2.22 3.54 4.70 6.49 5.95 3.59 5.04

Notes:

RCPn.n ERF based on RCP published projections (Tables AII.4.1 to AII.4.3) and TAR formula for RF. See Chapter 8, Figure 8.18, Section 11.3.5, 11.3.6.1, Figure 12.3. SRES A2 and B1 and IS92a 

calculated from abundances in Tables AII.4.1 to AII.4.3.

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a

2000 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.48

2010 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.50 0.51

2020 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.54 0.56 0.53 0.56

2030 0.42 0.50 0.49 0.61 0.62 0.54 0.61

2040 0.39 0.51 0.51 0.70 0.68 0.54 0.67

2050 0.36 0.50 0.53 0.80 0.75 0.52 0.73

2060 0.32 0.49 0.54 0.90 0.81 0.51 0.78

2070 0.30 0.47 0.55 0.97 0.88 0.49 0.82

2080 0.29 0.44 0.54 1.01 0.95 0.47 0.85

2090 0.28 0.42 0.50 1.05 1.01 0.44 0.88

2100 0.27 0.41 0.44 1.08 1.07 0.41 0.92

Table AII.6.2 | ERF from CH4 (W m–2)

Notes:

See notes Table AII.6.1.
1434

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.6.3 | ERF from N2O (W m–2)

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 IS92a

2000 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

2010 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17

2020 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20

2030 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.23

2040 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.25 0.26

2050 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.30 0.32 0.27 0.29

2060 0.23 0.27 0.29 0.34 0.36 0.29 0.32

2070 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.40 0.30 0.34

2080 0.23 0.30 0.36 0.42 0.44 0.31 0.37

2090 0.23 0.31 0.39 0.46 0.49 0.32 0.39

2100 0.23 0.32 0.41 0.49 0.53 0.32 0.41

Notes:

See notes Table AII.6.1.

Notes:

See notes Table AII.6.4.

Table AII.6.4 | ERF from all HFCs (W m–2)

Year Historical RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

 2011* 0.019

2010 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.020

2020 0.038 0.034 0.030 0.044

2030 0.056 0.046 0.036 0.069

2040 0.071 0.055 0.040 0.091

2050 0.083 0.061 0.042 0.110

2060 0.092 0.064 0.044 0.128

2070 0.104 0.066 0.046 0.144

2080 0.116 0.069 0.047 0.159

2090 0.124 0.074 0.047 0.171

2100 0.126 0.080 0.046 0.182

Notes:

See Table 8.3, 8.A.1, Section 11.3.5.1.1. ERF is calculated from RCP published abundances (Meinshausen et al., 2011a; http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb) and AR5 radiative efficiencies 

(Chapter 8).

Table AII.6.5 | ERF from all PFCs and SF6 (W m–2)

Year Historical RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

 2011* 0.009

2010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009

2020 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.012

2030 0.014 0.013 0.017 0.015

2040 0.015 0.014 0.021 0.019

2050 0.015 0.016 0.025 0.022

2060 0.016 0.017 0.029 0.026

2070 0.016 0.019 0.033 0.031

2080 0.016 0.021 0.038 0.035

2090 0.016 0.023 0.042 0.039

2100 0.016 0.026 0.045 0.044
1435

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.6.6 | ERF from Montreal Protocol greenhouse gases (W m–2)

Year Historical WMO A1

 2011* 0.328

2020 0.33 ± 0.01

2030 0.29 ± 0.01

2040 0.24 ± 0.01

2050 0.20 ± 0.01

2060 0.17 ± 0.02

2070 0.15 ± 0.02

2080 0.13 ± 0.02

2090 0.11 ± 0.02

2100 0.10 ± 0.02

Notes:

See Table 8.3, 8.A.1. ERF is calculated from AR5 radiative efficiency and projected abundances 

in Scenario A1 of WMO/UNEP assessment (WMO 2010). The 68% confidence interval shown is 

approximated by combining uncertainty in the radiative efficiency of each gas (±6.1%) and the 

decay of each gas since 2010 from Table AII.4.16 (±15%). All sources of uncertainty are assumed 

to be independent (see Chapters 2 and 8).

Year AR5 CCMVal-2

1960 0.0

1980 –0.033

2000 –0.079

 2011* –0.05

2050 –0.055

2100 –0.075

Table AII.6.7a | ERF from stratospheric O3 changes since 1850 (W m–2)

Notes:

AR5 results are from Chapter 8, see also Sections 11.3.5.1.2, 11.3.6.1. CCMVal-2 results (Cionni 

et al. 2011) are the multi-model average (13 chemistry–climate models) running a single 

scenario for stratospheric change: REF-B2 scenario of CCMVal-2 with SRES A1B climate scenario.

Year AR5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

1980 0.31 ± 0.05 0.31 ± 0.05 0.31 ± 0.05 0.31 ± 0.05

2000 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36

 2011* 0.40

2030 0.32 0.38 0.36 0.44

2100 0.17 0.27 0.27 0.60 ± 0.11

Table AII.6.7b | ERF from tropospheric O3 changes since 1850 (W m–2)

Notes:

AR5 results from Chapter 8; see also Sections 11.3.5.1.2, 11.3.6.1. Model mean results from ACCMIP (Stevenson et al., 2013) using a consistent model set (FGKN), which is similar to the all-model 

mean. Standard deviation across models shown for 1980s decade is similar for all scenarios except for RCP8.5 at 2100, which is twice as large.

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 A1B B1 IS92a AR5

Historical

1850 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.06

1990 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.60

2000 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.31 1.87

2010 1.81 1.81 1.78 1.84 1.74 1.65 1.73 1.63 2.25

2020 2.25 2.25 2.15 2.32 2.04 2.16 2.15 2.00

2030 2.52 2.67 2.52 2.91 2.56 2.84 2.56 2.40

2040 2.65 3.07 2.82 3.61 3.22 3.61 2.93 2.82

2050 2.64 3.42 3.20 4.37 3.89 4.16 3.30 3.25

2060 2.55 3.67 3.58 5.13 4.71 4.79 3.65 3.76

2070 2.47 3.84 4.11 5.89 5.56 5.28 3.92 4.24

2080 2.41 3.90 4.60 6.60 6.40 5.62 4.09 4.74

2090 2.35 3.91 4.93 7.32 7.22 5.86 4.18 5.26

2100 2.30 3.94 5.15 7.97 8.07 6.05 4.19 5.79

Table AII.6.8: Total anthropogenic ERF from published RCPs and SRES (W m–2)

Notes:

Derived from RCP published CO2-eq concentrations that aggregate all anthropogenic forcings including greenhouse gases plus aerosols. These results may not be directly comparable to ERF values 

used in AR5 because of how aerosol indirect effects are included, but results are similar to those derived using ERF in Chapter 12 (see Figure 12.4). Comparisons with the TAR Appendix II (SRES A2 

and B1) may not be equivalent because those total RF values (TAR II.3.11) were made using the TAR Chapter 9 Simple Model, not always consistent with the individual components in that appendix 

(TAR II.3.1 to 9). See Chapter 1, Sections 11.3.6.1, 12.3.1.3 and 12.3.1.4, Figures 1.15 and 12.3. For AR5 Historical, see Table AII.1.2 and Chapter 8.
1436

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.6.9: ERF components relative to 1850 (W m–2) derived from ACCMIP

Year WMGHG Ozone Aerosol ERF Net

1930 0.58 ± 0.04 0.09 ± 0.03 –0.24 ± 0.06 0.44 ± 0.07

1980 1.56 ± 0.10 0.30 ± 0.10 –0.90 ± 0.22 1.00 ± 0.26

2000 2.30 ± 0.14 0.33 ± 0.11 –1.17 ± 0.28 1.51 ± 0.33

2030 RCP8.5 3.64 ± 0.22 0.43 ± 0.12 –0.91 ± 0.22 3.20 ± 0.33

2100 RCP2.6 2.83 ± 0.17 0.14 ± 0.07 –0.12 ± 0.06* 2.86 ± 0.19

2100 RCP4.5 4.33 ± 0.26 0.23 ± 0.09 –0.12 ± 0.06* 4.44 ± 0.28

2100 RCP6.0 5.60 ± 0.34 0.25 ± 0.05 –0.12 ± 0.06* 5.74 ± 0.35

2100 RCP8.5 8.27 ± 0.50 0.55 ± 0.18 –0.12 ± 0.03 8.71 ± 0.53

Notes:

Radiative forcing and adjusted forcing from the ACCMIP results (Shindell et al., 2013) are given for all well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG), ozone, aerosols, and the net. Original 90% confidence 

intervals have been reduced to 68% confidence to compare with the CMIP5 model standard deviations in Table AII.6.10. Some uncertainty ranges (*) are estimated from the 2100 RCP8.5 results 

(see Chapter 12). See Sections 11.3.5.1.3 and 11.3.6.1, Figure 12.4.

Year SRES A1B RCP2.6& RCP4.5& RCP6.0& RCP8.5&

1850sH –0.19 ± 0.19 –0.12 ± 0.07

1986–2005H 1.51 ± 0.44 1.34 ± 0.50

1986–2005 1.51 ± 0.44 1.31 ± 0.47 1.30 ± 0.48 1.29 ± 0.51 1.30 ± 0.47

2010d 2.18 ± 0.53 1.97 ± 0.50 1.91 ± 0.53 1.90 ± 0.54 1.96 ± 0.53

2020d 2.58 ± 0.57 2.33 ± 0.47 2.27 ± 0.51 2.16 ± 0.55 2.43 ± 0.52

2030d 3.15 ± 0.60 2.50 ± 0.51 2.61 ± 0.54 2.41 ± 0.60 2.92 ± 0.57

2040d 3.77 ± 0.72 2.64 ± 0.47 2.98 ± 0.55 2.72 ± 0.58 3.52 ± 0.60

2050d 4.32 ± 0.73 2.65 ± 0.47 3.25 ± 0.56 3.07 ± 0.61 4.21 ± 0.63

2060d 4.86 ± 0.74 2.57 ± 0.50 3.50 ± 0.59 3.40 ± 0.60 4.97 ± 0.68

2070d 5.32 ± 0.79 2.51 ± 0.50 3.65 ± 0.58 3.90 ± 0.65 5.70 ± 0.76

2080d 5.71 ± 0.81 2.40 ± 0.46 3.71 ± 0.55 4.27 ± 0.69 6.31 ± 0.81

2090d 6.00 ± 0.83 2.44 ± 0.49 3.78 ± 0.58 4.64 ± 0.71 7.13 ± 0.89

2081–2100 5.99 ± 0.78 2.40 ± 0.46 3.73 ± 0.56 4.56 ± 0.70 7.02 ± 0.92

Table AII.6.10 | Total anthropogenic plus natural ERF (W m–2) from CMIP5 and CMIP3, including historical

Notes:

CMIP5 historical and RCP results (Forster et al., 2013) are shown with CMIP3 SRES A1B results (Forster and Taylor, 2006). The alternative results for 1986–2005 with CMIP5 are derived from: all 

models contributing historical experiments (1986–2005H), and the subsets of models contributing to each RCP experiment (next line, 1986–2005). For SRES A1B the same set of models is used from 

1850 to 2100. Values are 10-year averages (2090d = 2086–2095) and show multi-model means and standard deviations. See Chapter 12, Section 12.3 and discussion of Figure 12.4, also Sections 

8.1, 9.3.2.2, 11.3.6.1 and 11.3.6.3. Due to lack of reporting, for RCP8.5 the 2081–2100 result contains one fewer model than the 2090d decade, and for A1B the 1850s result has just 5 models and 

the 2081–2100 result has 3 fewer models than the 2090d decade.
1437

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

AII.7: Environmental Data

Table AII.7.1 | Global mean surface O3 change (ppb)

HTAP SRES

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1 CLE MFR

2000 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 27.2 ± 2.9 28.7 28.7

2010 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.6

2020 –0.3 –0.2 –0.2 0.6 2.8 1.1

2030 –1.1 –0.1 –0.3 1.0 4.4 1.3 0.7 ± 1.4 –2.3 ± 1.1

2040 –1.5 –0.3 –0.3 1.2 5.3 1.3

2050 –1.9 –0.8 –0.4 1.5 6.2 0.8

2060 –2.4 –1.3 –0.5 1.8 7.1 0.2

2070 –3.0 –1.9 –1.0 1.9 8.0 –0.5

2080 –3.5 –2.5 –1.5 1.9 9.2 –1.1

2090 –3.8 –2.8 –2.1 1.9 10.6 –1.7

2100 –4.2 –3.0 –2.8 1.9 11.9 –2.5

Notes:

HTAP results are from Wild et al. (2012) and use the published O3 sensitivities to regional emissions from the HTAP multi-model study (HTAP 2010) and scale those O3 changes to the RCP emission 

scenarios. The ±1 standard deviation (68% confidence interval) over the range of 14 parametric models is shown for year 2000 and is similar for all years. Results from the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios 

are from the TAR OxComp studies diagnosed by Wild (Prather et al., 2001; 2003). CLE and MFR results (Dentener et al., 2005; 2006) include uncertainty (standard deviation of model results) in the 

change since year 2000, and CLE alone includes climate effects. The CMIP5 and ACCMIP results are from V. Naik and A. Fiore based on Fiore et al. (2012) and include the standard deviation over 

the models in year 2000, which is similar for following years. This does not necessarily reflect the uncertainty in the projected change, which may be smaller, see Fiore et al. (2012). The difference in 

year 2000 between CMIP5 (4 models) and ACCMIP (12 models) reflect different model biases. Even though ACCMIP only has three decades (2000, 2030, 2100), the greater number of models (5 to 

11 depending on time slice and scenario) makes this a more robust estimate. See Chapter 11, ES, Section 11.3.5.2.2.

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 30.0 ± 4.2 30.0 ± 4.2 30.0 ± 4.2 30.0 ± 4.2 28.1 ± 3.1 28.1 ± 3.2 28.1± 3.1 28.1 ± 3.1

2010 –0.4 –0.2 –0.6 –0.1

2020 –0.9 –0.3 –0.9 0.7

2030 –1.8 –0.2 –1.1 1.5 –1.4 0.3 –0.6 1.7

2040 –2.3 –0.3 –1.2 2.0

2050 –2.9 –0.9 –1.5 2.5

2060 –4.0 –1.7 –1.9 2.9

2070 –5.4 –2.8 –2.8 3.1

2080 –6.4 –3.7 –3.9 3.0

2090 –6.9 –4.1 –4.8 2.8

2100 –7.2 –4.3 –5.6 2.7 –6.3 –3.5 –4.9 3.4
1438

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.7.2 | Surface O3 change (ppb) for HTAP regions

North America

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2 36.1 ± 3.2

2010 –0.8 –1.1 –0.1 –1.5 1.5 0.4

2020 –1.9 –2.3 –0.9 –1.4 3.6 0.5

2030 –3.7 –2.7 –1.5 –1.1 5.3 –0.1

2040 –4.6 –3.2 –1.9 –1.1 6.2 –0.8

2050 –5.6 –3.9 –2.4 –0.9 6.9 –1.9

2060 –6.5 –4.6 –3.0 –0.7 7.9 –2.9

2070 –7.5 –5.3 –4.0 –0.7 8.8 –3.8

2080 –8.2 –6.1 –4.9 –0.7 10.3 –4.5

2090 –8.5 –6.4 –5.7 –0.8 12.2 –5.2

2100 –8.9 –6.6 –6.7 –0.9 13.9 –6.1

Europe

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7 37.8 ± 3.7

2010 –0.5 –0.3 –0.1 –0.7 1.5 0.3

2020 –1.4 –1.3 –0.7 –0.2 3.7 0.6

2030 –3.0 –1.4 –1.1 0.1 5.7 0.2

2040 –3.8 –1.9 –1.5 0.1 6.7 –0.3

2050 –4.6 –2.7 –2.0 0.3 7.7 –1.2

2060 –5.6 –3.5 –2.6 0.4 8.8 –2.1

2070 –6.6 –4.3 –3.3 0.4 9.8 –3.0

2080 –7.5 –5.1 –4.2 0.2 11.3 –3.8

2090 –8.0 –5.6 –5.2 –0.1 13.4 –4.6

2100 –8.5 –6.0 –6.4 –0.2 15.1 –5.6

South Asia

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4 39.6 ± 3.4

2010 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.4 2.7 1.8

2020 1.6 2.2 0.0 3.9 6.1 3.3

2030 0.5 3.4 –0.6 5.0 8.9 3.9

2040 0.3 3.5 –0.1 5.5 10.4 4.1

2050 0.2 2.9 0.0 5.2 11.7 2.9

2060 –0.1 1.1 0.4 5.1 12.7 1.5

2070 –1.0 –1.2 –0.2 4.9 13.6 –0.1

2080 –2.6 –3.9 –1.7 4.9 14.5 –1.5

2090 –4.4 –5.0 –3.0 4.1 15.1 –3.0

2100 –6.8 –6.0 –4.7 4.0 15.0 –4.6

(continued on next page)
1439

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.7.2 | (continued)

East Asia

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A2 B1

2000 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7 35.6 ± 2.7

2010 1.0 0.6 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.1

2020 0.5 0.6 0.4 2.5 4.6 1.9

2030 –1.4 0.2 0.6 2.8 6.8 2.1

2040 –2.7 –0.8 1.4 1.8 8.0 2.0

2050 –3.8 –2.5 1.4 1.4 9.1 0.9

2060 –4.8 –3.6 0.9 1.4 10.2 –0.3

2070 –6.0 –4.6 –0.7 1.2 11.2 –1.4

2080 –6.9 –5.5 –2.2 1.0 12.5 –2.4

2090 –7.4 –5.8 –3.5 0.7 13.9 –3.4

2100 –8.0 –6.0 –4.9 0.5 14.9 –4.6

Notes:

HTAP results from Wild et al. (2012); see Table AII.7.1.

Table AII.7.3 | Surface O3 change (ppb) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions

Africa

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 33.8 ± 4.3 33.8 ± 4.3 33.8 ± 4.3 33.8 ± 4.3 33.1 ± 4.1 33.1 ± 4.1 33.1 ± 4.1 33.1 ± 4.1

2010 –0.7 –0.1 –1.2 –0.2

2020 –1.0 0.2 –1.5 0.9

2030 –1.9 0.5 –1.8 1.7 –1.4 0.9 –1.3 2.4

2040 –2.0 0.6 –1.8 2.6

2050 –2.3 0.2 –2.0 3.2

2060 –2.6 –0.3 –2.2 3.7

2070 –3.2 –1.2 –2.8 4.0

2080 –3.6 –2.3 –3.7 4.1

2090 –4.1 –3.0 –4.5 4.1

2100 –4.8 –3.3 –5.2 4.1 –4.9 –2.9 –4.9 5.0

Australia

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 23.3 ± 4.6 23.3 ± 4.6 23.3 ± 4.6 23.3 ± 4.6 23.7 ± 3.5 23.7 ± 3.5 23.7 ± 3.5 23.7 ± 3.5

2010 –1.3 –1.1 –0.8 –0.9

2020 –1.7 –1.4 –1.0 –0.6

2030 –2.3 –1.3 –1.4 0.0 –1.8 –0.4 –1.4 0.9

2040 –2.6 –1.2 –1.7 0.5

2050 –3.0 –1.5 –1.9 0.9

2060 –3.7 –1.9 –2.0 1.5

2070 –4.4 –2.4 –2.5 1.8

2080 –5.0 –2.9 –3.1 1.9

2090 –5.0 –3.1 –3.5 1.9

2100 –5.2 –3.2 –4.0 2.0 –4.3 –2.5 –4.0 3.1

(continued on next page)
1440

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.7.3 | (continued)

Central Eurasia

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 38.7 ± 5.3 38.7 ± 5.3 38.7 ± 5.3 38.7 ± 5.3 32.5 ± 6.2 32.5 ± 6.2 32.5 ± 6.2 32.5 ± 6.2

2010 –0.6 –0.6 –0.6 –0.5

2020 –1.6 –1.2 –1.2 0.5

2030 –3.2 –1.3 –1.4 1.4 –1.9 –0.1 –0.3 1.8

2040 –4.5 –1.9 –1.7 1.6

2050 –5.7 –2.9 –2.2 1.8

2060 –7.2 –4.2 –3.0 2.8

2070 –9.1 –5.4 –4.3 3.0

2080 –10.6 –6.5 –6.0 2.9

2090 –11.2 –6.8 –7.2 2.6

2100 –11.5 –7.0 –8.1 2.6 –8.5 –3.8 –5.6 4.3

Europe

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 40.4 ± 6.0 40.4 ± 6.0 40.4 ± 6.0 40.4 ± 6.0 33.6 ± 5.2 33.6 ± 5.2 33.6 ± 5.2 33.6 ± 5.2

2010 –0.4 –0.5 –0.5 –0.4

2020 –1.5 –1.3 –1.2 0.3

2030 –3.2 –1.7 –1.7 1.1 –1.6 0.6 –0.4 2.3

2040 –4.6 –2.4 –2.3 1.4

2050 –6.1 –3.5 –3.0 1.8

2060 –8.0 –4.9 –4.1 2.4

2070 –10.4 –6.3 –5.8 2.6

2080 –12.2 –7.6 –7.6 2.3

2090 –13.0 –8.0 –9.2 2.1

2100 –13.4 –8.1 –10.3 2.0 –9.4 –3.5 –7.2 4.9

East Asia

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 46.3 ± 4.9 46.3 ± 4.9 46.3 ± 4.9 46.3 ± 4.9 41.0 ± 5.5 41.0 ± 5.5 41.0 ± 5.5 41.0 ± 5.5

2010 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.1

2020 –0.1 0.8 –0.1 2.7

2030 –2.3 0.5 0.4 3.8 –1.8 1.0 0.4 3.2

2040 –3.9 –0.9 1.1 3.8

2050 –5.8 –3.3 1.0 3.7

2060 –8.0 –5.4 0.2 3.9

2070 –10.2 –7.3 –1.6 3.6

2080 –12.1 –8.8 –4.0 3.3

2090 –13.2 –9.4 –6.3 2.9

2100 –13.9 –9.6 –8.0 2.8 –11.4 –5.9 –6.6 4.6

(continued on next page)
1441

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.7.3 | (continued)

Middle East

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 45.9 ± 3.1 45.9 ± 3.1 45.9 ± 3.1 45.9 ± 3.1 45.7 ± 5.4 45.7 ± 5.4 45.7 ± 5.4 45.7 ± 5.4

2010 –0.4 0.5 –0.7 0.5

2020 –1.5 0.4 –1.4 2.5

2030 –3.3 0.6 –1.6 3.8 –2.8 0.9 –1.1 4.1

2040 –3.6 0.2 –2.0 4.4

2050 –4.6 –0.9 –2.6 4.7

2060 –6.0 –2.7 –3.5 5.2

2070 –8.1 –4.9 –4.2 5.1

2080 –9.9 –7.1 –5.9 5.1

2090 –11.3 –8.4 –8.2 4.8

2100 –12.4 –9.0 –9.9 4.6 –11.7 –7.5 –9.8 5.0

North America

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 40.7 ± 5.1 40.7 ± 5.1 40.7 ± 5.1 40.7 ± 5.1 34.3 ± 5.5 34.3 ± 5.5 34.3 ± 5.5 34.3 ± 5.5

2010 –0.9 –1.2 –0.6 –1.0

2020 –2.1 –2.4 –1.4 –0.5

2030 –4.3 –2.8 –1.8 0.1 –2.5 –0.7 –0.8 1.3

2040 –5.7 –3.6 –2.5 0.3

2050 –7.2 –4.6 –3.1 0.6

2060 –9.1 –5.8 –4.4 1.0

2070 –11.4 –7.1 –6.2 1.2

2080 –13.2 –8.3 –8.1 1.2

2090 –13.8 –8.5 –9.6 1.0

2100 –14.1 –8.8 –10.9 0.9 –10.5 –4.7 –8.7 3.4

South America

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 25.3 ± 4.2 25.3 ± 4.2 25.3 ± 4.2 25.3 ± 4.2 23.7 ± 3.9 23.7 ± 3.9 23.7 ± 3.9 23.7 ± 3.9

2010 –1.4 –0.6 –1.2 –0.3

2020 –2.1 –1.2 –1.8 0.3

2030 –2.9 –1.2 –2.1 0.6 –2.3 –0.6 –1.8 1.2

2040 –2.9 –1.3 –2.3 1.1

2050 –3.2 –1.7 –2.6 1.3

2060 –3.6 –2.5 –2.9 1.5

2070 –4.3 –3.6 –3.5 1.5

2080 –5.1 –4.5 –4.2 1.1

2090 –5.5 –5.0 –4.7 0.7

2100 –5.7 –5.2 –5.3 0.4 –5.0 –4.0 –5.2 2.0

(continued on next page)
1442

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.7.3 | (continued)

South Asia

CMIP5 ACCMIP

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 34.4 ± 3.9 34.4 ± 3.9 34.4 ± 3.9 34.4 ± 3.9 33.7 ± 4.6 33.7 ± 4.6 33.7 ± 4.6 33.7 ± 4.6

2010 1.3 0.9 –0.1 1.3

2020 1.4 1.6 –0.2 3.1

2030 0.7 2.7 –0.1 3.9 0.6 2.3 –0.4 4.6

2040 0.6 2.8 0.3 4.0

2050 0.4 1.6 0.4 3.6

2060 –0.5 –0.7 0.3 3.2

2070 –2.0 –3.2 –0.5 2.9

2080 –3.9 –5.7 –2.0 2.7

2090 –5.7 –6.7 –3.3 2.2

2100 –7.1 –7.3 –4.5 1.9 –7.2 –6.1 –4.5 3.6

(continued on next page)

Notes:

See notes for Table AII.7.1. For definition of regions, see Figure 11.23 and Fiore et al. (2012).

Table AII.7.4 | Surface particulate matter change (log10[PM2.5 (microgram/m3)]) from CMIP5/ACCMIP for continental regions 

Africa

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 1.17 ± 0.23

2030 0.00 0.04 –0.01 0.01

2050 –0.02 –0.02 0.01

2100 0.00 –0.01 –0.03 –0.02

Australia

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 0.65 ± 0.32

2030 –0.04 0.03 –0.01 0.01

2050 –0.06 –0.02 –0.04

2100 0.00 0.00 –0.03 –0.01

Central Eurasia

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 0.59 ± 0.17

2030 –0.07 –0.01 –0.05 –0.06

2050 –0.12 –0.08 –0.09

2100 –0.13 –0.11 –0.11 –0.12

Europe

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 0.81 ± 0.09

2030 –0.20 –0.10 –0.13 –0.24

2050 –0.31 –0.25 –0.33

2100 –0.32 –0.28 –0.37 –0.38
1443

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.7.4 | (continued)

East Asia

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 1.04 ± 0.16

2030 –0.04 –0.02 0.01 0.01

2050 –0.24 0.07 –0.17

2100 –0.31 –0.33 –0.21 –0.30

Middle East

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 1.10 ± 0.27

2030 –0.06 –0.02 –0.05 –0.03

2050 –0.08 –0.06 –0.03

2100 –0.11 –0.11 –0.10 –0.12

North America

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 0.51 ± 0.15

2030 –0.16 –0.10 –0.10 –0.15

2050 –0.20 –0.16 –0.17

2100 –0.20 –0.19 –0.24 –0.21

South America

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 0.71 ± 0.11

2030 –0.05 –0.04 –0.04 –0.03

2050 –0.10 –0.05 –0.07

2100 –0.11 –0.11 –0.09 –0.12

South Asia

Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2000 1.02 ± 0.11

2030 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.05

2050 –0.05 0.07 0.00

2100 –0.16 –0.24 –0.06 –0.11

Notes:

Decadal average of the log10[PM2.5] values are given only where results include at least four models from either ACCMIP or CMIP5. Results are from A. Fiore and V. Naik based on Fiore et al. (2012) 

using the CMIP5/ACCMIP archive. Due to the very large systematic spread across models, the statistics were calculated for the log values, but Figure 11.23 shows statistics for direct PM2.5 values. 

Owing to the large spatial variations no global average is given. Model mean and standard deviation are shown for year 2000; differences in log10[PM2.5] are shown for 2030, 2050 and 2100. See 

notes for Table AII.7.3 and Figure 11.23 for regions; see also Chapter 11, ES.
1444

Annex II Climate System Scenario Tables

AII

Table AII.7.5 | CMIP5 (RCP) and CMIP3 (SRES A1B) global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative to 1986–2005 reference period. Results here are a statistical summary of the spread in the CMIP ensembles for each of the scenarios. They do not account for model biases and model dependencies, and the percentiles do not correspond to the 

assessed uncertainty in Chapters 11 (11.3.6.3) and 12 (12.4.1). The statistical spread across models cannot be interpreted as uncertainty ranges or in terms of calibrated language 

(Section 12.2).

RCP2.6 RCP4.5

Years 5% 17% 50% 83% 95% 5% 17% 50% 83% 95%

1850–1990 –0.61 –0.61

1986–2005 0.00 0.00

2010d 0.19 0.33 0.36 0.52 0.62 0.22 0.26 0.36 0.48 0.59

2020d 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.81 1.07 0.39 0.48 0.59 0.74 0.83

2030d 0.47 0.56 0.74 1.02 1.24 0.56 0.69 0.82 1.10 1.22

2040d 0.51 0.68 0.88 1.25 1.50 0.64 0.86 1.04 1.35 1.57

2050d 0.49 0.71 0.94 1.37 1.65 0.84 1.05 1.24 1.63 1.97

2060d 0.36 0.69 0.93 1.48 1.71 0.90 1.13 1.44 1.90 2.19

2070d 0.20 0.70 0.89 1.49 1.71 0.98 1.20 1.54 2.07 2.32

2080d 0.15 0.62 0.94 1.44 1.79 0.98 1.27 1.62 2.25 2.54

2090d 0.18 0.58 0.94 1.53 1.79 1.06 1.33 1.68 2.29 2.59

RCP6.0 RCP8.5

Years 5% 17% 50% 83% 95% 5% 17% 50% 83% 95%

1850–1990 –0.61 –0.61

1986–2005 0.00 0.00

2010d 0.21 0.26 0.36 0.47 0.64 0.23 0.29 0.37 0.47 0.62

2020d 0.33 0.40 0.55 0.70 0.90 0.37 0.51 0.66 0.84 0.99

2030d 0.40 0.59 0.74 0.92 1.17 0.65 0.77 0.94 1.29 1.39

2040d 0.59 0.73 0.95 1.21 1.41 0.93 1.13 1.29 1.68 1.77

2050d 0.69 0.92 1.15 1.52 1.81 1.20 1.48 1.70 2.19 2.37

2060d 0.88 1.08 1.32 1.78 2.18 1.55 1.88 2.16 2.74 2.99

2070d 1.08 1.28 1.58 2.14 2.52 1.96 2.25 2.60 3.31 3.61

2080d 1.33 1.56 1.81 2.58 2.88 2.31 2.65 3.05 3.93 4.22

2090d 1.51 1.72 2.03 2.92 3.24 2.63 2.96 3.57 4.45 4.81

SRES A1B

Years 5% 17% 50% 83% 95%

1850–1990 –0.61

1986–2005 0.00

2010d 0.15 0.22 0.34 0.44 0.62

2020d 0.27 0.37 0.52 0.76 0.91

2030d 0.47 0.59 0.82 1.04 1.38

2040d 0.65 0.90 1.11 1.36 1.79

2050d 0.92 1.14 1.55 1.65 2.14

2060d 1.12 1.40 1.75 1.98 2.67

2070d 1.40 1.60 2.14 2.39 3.12

2080d 1.61 1.80 2.30 2.75 3.47

2090d 1.76 1.96 2.54 3.05 3.84

Notes:

This spread in the model ensembles (as shown in Figures 11.26a and 12.5, and discussed in Section 11.3.6) is not a measure of uncertainty. For the AR5 assessment of global mean surface 

temperature changes and uncertainties see: Section 11.3.6.3 and Figure 11.25 for the near-term (2016–2035) temperatures; and Section 12.4.1 and Tables 12.2–3 for the long term (2081–2100). 

See discussion about uncertainty and ensembles in Section 12.2, which explains how model spread is not equivalent to uncertainty. Results here are shown for the CMIP5 archive (Annex I, frozen 

as of March 15, 2013) for the RCPs and the similarly current CMIP3 archive for SRES A1B, which is not the same set of models used in AR4 (Figure SPM.5). Ten-year averages are shown (2030d = 

2026–2035). Temperature changes are relative to the reference period (1986–2005, defined as zero in this table), using CMIP5 for all four RCPs (G. J. van Oldenborgh, http://climexp.knmi.nl/t; see 

Annex I for listing of models included) and CMIP3 for SRES A1B (22 models). The warming from early instrumental record (1850–1900) to the modern reference period (1986–2005) is derived from 

HadCRUT4 observations as 0.61°C (C. Morice; see Chapter 2 and Table AII.1.3).
1445

Climate System Scenario Tables Annex II

AII

Table AII.7.7 | Global mean sea level rise (m) with respect to 1986–2005 at 1 January on the years indicated. Values shown as median and likely range; see Section 13.5.1.

Year SRES A1B RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

2007 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04] 0.03 [0.02 to 0.04]

2010 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05] 0.04 [0.03 to 0.05]

2020 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.10] 0.08 [0.06 to 0.11]

2030 0.12 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.13 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.13 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.12 [0.09 to 0.16] 0.13 [0.10 to 0.17]

2040 0.17 [0.13 to 0.22] 0.17 [0.13 to 0.22] 0.17 [0.13 to 0.22] 0.17 [0.12 to 0.21] 0.19 [0.14 to 0.24]

2050 0.23 [0.17 to 0.30] 0.22 [0.16 to 0.28] 0.23 [0.17 to 0.29] 0.22 [0.16 to 0.28] 0.25 [0.19 to 0.32]

2060 0.30 [0.21 to 0.38] 0.26 [0.18 to 0.35] 0.28 [0.21 to 0.37] 0.27 [0.19 to 0.35] 0.33 [0.24 to 0.42]

2070 0.37 [0.26 to 0.48] 0.31 [0.21 to 0.41] 0.35 [0.25 to 0.45] 0.33 [0.24 to 0.43] 0.42 [0.31 to 0.54]

2080 0.44 [0.31 to 0.58] 0.35 [0.24 to 0.48] 0.41 [0.28 to 0.54] 0.40 [0.28 to 0.53] 0.51 [0.37 to 0.67]

2090 0.52 [0.36 to 0.69] 0.40 [0.26 to 0.54] 0.47 [0.32 to 0.62] 0.47 [0.33 to 0.63] 0.62 [0.45 to 0.81]

2100 0.60 [0.42 to 0.80] 0.44 [0.28 to 0.61] 0.53 [0.36 to 0.71] 0.55 [0.38 to 0.73] 0.74 [0.53 to 0.98]

Years A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a A1B

PI* –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33 –0.33

1990 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2000 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.16

2010 0.30 0.40 0.32 0.35 0.34 0.39 0.27 0.30

2020 0.52 0.71 0.55 0.50 0.55 0.66 0.43 0.52

2030 0.85 1.03 0.85 0.73 0.77 0.93 0.61 0.85

2040 1.26 1.41 1.27 1.06 0.98 1.18 0.80 1.26

2050 1.59 1.75 1.86 1.42 1.21 1.44 1.00 1.59

2060 1.97 2.04 2.50 1.85 1.44 1.69 1.26 1.97

2070 2.30 2.25 3.10 2.33 1.63 1.94 1.52 2.30

2080 2.56 2.41 3.64 2.81 1.79 2.20 1.79 2.56

2090 2.77 2.49 4.09 3.29 1.91 2.44 2.08 2.77

2100 2.95 2.54 4.49 3.79 1.98 2.69 2.38 2.95

Table AII.7.6 | Global mean surface temperature change (°C) relative to 1990 from the TAR

Notes:

Single-year estimates of mean surface air temperature warming relative to the reference period 1990 for the SRES scenarios evaluated in the TAR. The pre-industrial estimates are for 1750, and all 

results are based on a simple climate model. See TAR Appendix II.