10A-i 

APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

SPREADSHEET MODEL

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS ...................................................................................... 10A-1

10A.2 STARTUP ............................................................................................................. 10A-1

10A.3 DESCRIPTION OF NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS WORKSHEETS ........ 10A-1

10A.4 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS FOR OPERATING THE NATIONAL IMPACT 

ANALYSIS SPREADSHEETS ............................................................................ 10A-2
10A-1 

APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

SPREADSHEET MODEL

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS

DOE performs all NIA calculations using a Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet which are 

available on regulations.gov, docket number EERE–2011–BT–STD–0006 at 

www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2011-BT-STD-0006. 

10A.2 STARTUP

The NIA spreadsheet enables the user to perform a National Impact Analysis (NIA) for 

the candidate standard levels (CSLs) for general service fluorescent lamps (GSFL) and 

incandescent reflector lamps (IRL). To execute the spreadsheet, DOE assumes that the user has 

access to a PC with Microsoft Excel® 2007 or later installed under the Windows operating 

system. 

10A.3 DESCRIPTION OF NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS WORKSHEETS

The NIA spreadsheets perform calculations to forecast the change in national energy use 

and net present value of financial impacts due to a revised energy efficiency standard. The 

energy use and associated costs for a given standard are determined by first calculating the 

shipments and then calculating the energy use and costs for all lamps shipped under that 

standard. The differences between the standards and base case can then be compared and the 

overall energy savings and net present values determined. The NIA spreadsheets consist of the 

following worksheets: 

Introduction Includes an introduction to the spreadsheet calculations, and information on the User 

Options & Summary worksheet

User Options & 

Summary

Includes user-selected scenarios and a summary table of the cumulative shipments, 

NES, and NPV under each scenario. (More information on the User Options & 

Summary worksheet can be

found in Section 10-A.4) 

Charts Includes charts of shipments, stock, NES and NPV for each standards case for the 

user selected scenario

Lamp Shipments & 

Stock-IRL

Includes historical data and the annual forecasts of shipments and stock for each 

standards case (IRL) for the user selected scenario

Lamp Shipments-GSFL Includes historical data and the annual forecasts of shipments for each standards case 

(GSFL) for the user selected scenario

Lamp Stock-GSFL Includes historical data and the annual forecasts of stock for each standards case 

(GSFL) for the user selected scenario

Ballast Shipments & 

Stock

Includes historical data and the annual forecasts of ballast shipments and stock for 

each standards case (GSFL) for the user selected scenario

Energy Savings Includes the calculation of the annual energy savings for each standards case for the 

user selected scenario

Fuel Cost Savings Includes the calculation of the annual fuel cost savings for each standards case for the 

user selected scenario
10A-2 

Equipment Costs Includes the calculation of the annual equipment costs for each standards case for the 

user selected scenario

Net Present Value Includes a summary of the fuel cost savings and equipment costs and the calculation 

of the annual net present values for each standards case, discounted at 3% and 7% for 

the user selected scenario

Parameters and 

Assumptions

Includes the parameters and assumption inputs for the shipments analysis and NIA

Fuel Prices Includes Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) electricity price forecasts and extrapolations 

by sector (residential, commercial, industrial)

Site to Power Plant & 

Upstream

Includes annual site to power plant, and upstream conversion factors

Substitution Includes allowed substitutions between lamp and lamp-&-ballast options (and a 

correction factor under said substitutions to keep light output constant)

Failure and 

Replacement

Includes probability distributions governing lamp and ballast failure and replacement.

Price Forecasts Includes forecasts of lamp and ballast prices due to learning and differing 

assumptions about rare earth oxide prices.

Lamp Usage Includes lamp hours of use probabilities by sector, building type and room type

LED Incursion Forecast Includes the LED incursion forecast by sector for GSFLs and IRLs

Glossary Includes a glossary of the variables and named ranges used in the spreadsheet

10A.4 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS FOR OPERATING THE NATIONAL IMPACT 

ANALYSIS SPREADSHEETS

Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheets are as follows: Once the NIA 

spreadsheet file has been downloaded from the Internet, open the file using Excel®. If Macros 

have been disabled a security warning will appear under the Ribbon. Click “Options...” to open 

a window titled “Security Alert-Macro”, in this window select “Enable this content” to allow 

Macros to run. Use Excel's® View/Zoom commands at the top menu bar to change the size of the 

display to make it fit your monitor.

 Calculations are performed under a range of different sets of assumptions (scenarios), 

which can be selected by the user on the User Options & Summary worksheet. A description of 

the available options is given below. For each of the scenario options, the user should select one 

option in the associated yellow drop down menu; users must click on the yellow cell for the drop 

down menu to appear. Results throughout the spreadsheet will update automatically. 

 There are two types of scenarios that can be investigated, NIA scenarios and Shipments 

scenarios. NIA Scenarios do not change shipment quantities, while Shipments Scenarios change 

shipment quantities based on the selected options. 

Users can vary these scenarios independently of the shipments scenarios. 

NIA Scenarios

AEO 2012 Economic growth scenarios 

• Reference Case

• High economic growth

• Low economic growth
10A-3 

Rebound Scenarios 

• Reference - Assumes a 0% rebound in the commercial sector and 0% in the residential 

sector. 

• Framework - Assumes a 1% rebound in the commercial sector and 8.5% in the residential 

sector 

• High - Assumes a rebound rate of 15% in both sectors. 

There are four different analysis types users can perform in the shipments scenarios, uncertainty 

analysis, impact determination, standards alternatives and IRL short life. Users first select the 

analysis type, then the option for that analysis type, explained below. The default option is 

Reference.

Shipment Scenarios

Uncertainty Analysis

• Reference - Shipment reference scenario, Solid State lighting (LEDs) and lighting 

controls grow at DOE's best-estimate rate, Rare Earth prices remain at their 2012 levels, 

standards apply to all lamps, and technologies are fixed. 

• REO Low - Rare Earth prices drop to their pre-2012 values, all other values as in 

Reference.

• REO High - Rare Earth prices rise to their peak values, all other values as in Reference

Impact Determination

• Reference - Shipment reference scenario, Solid State lighting (LEDs) and lighting 

controls grow at DOE's best-estimate rate, Rare Earth prices remain at their 2012 levels, 

standards apply to all lamps, and technologies are fixed. 

• No LEDs - LEDs do not grow into the market, all other values as in Reference. 

• Low Controls - Lighting controls adoption remains fixed at current levels, all other values 

as in Reference. 

Standards Alternative 

• Reference - Shipment reference scenario, Solid State lighting (LEDs) and lighting 

controls grow at DOE's best-estimate rate, Rare Earth prices remain at their 2012 levels, 

standards apply to all lamps, and technologies are fixed. 

• No T5 standard - Assumes no standard is implemented for T5 lamps, all other values as 

in Reference. 

IRL Short Life

• Reference - Shipment reference scenario, Solid State lighting (LEDs) and lighting 

controls grow at DOE's best-estimate rate, Rare Earth prices remain at their 2012 levels, 

standards apply to all lamps, and technologies are fixed.

• IRL Short Life - Baseline IRL technology remain available after standards but with 

shorted lifetimes, increased light output, improved efficacies, but unchanged energy 

consumption. All other values as in Reference.