CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 14-1
 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY..................................................................... 14-1
 

14.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 14-3
 

14.3.1 Impacts Related to Commercial Refrigeration Equipment – TSL 1.................. 14-6
 

14.3.2 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 5 ...................................................................... 14-7
 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commercial Electricity Consumption, 

Electricity Generation, and Electricity Capacity ............................................... 14-3
 

Table 14.3.2 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment..................... 14-4
 

Table 14.3.3 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment..................... 14-4
 

Table 14.3.4 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment..................... 14-5
 

Table 14.3.5 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment..................... 14-5
 

Table 14.3.6 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment..................... 14-6
 

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CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION 

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) analyzed the effects of amended energy 

conservation standards for commercial refrigeration equipment (CRE) on the electric utility 

industry. DOE conducted the utility impact analysis using Energy Information Administration’s 

(EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).a

 NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectoral, 

partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to 

produce a reference energy forecast for the United States, published in the Annual Energy 

Outlook.

1 The Annual Energy Outlook for 2008 (AEO2008) forecasts energy supply and demand 

through 2030. 

DOE used a variant of this NEMS model, referred to as NEMS-BT,b

 to account for the 

impact of amended energy conservation standards on the reference energy forecast. The 

NEMS-BT reference case was modeled after the AEO2008 reference case.c

 The utility impact 

analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the reference case and for the policy 

cases in which amended energy conservation standards are in place.d 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its use in the analysis of national 

energy conservation standards. The model uses a set of assumptions that are well known and 

fairly transparent because of the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the 

comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy 

supply and demand sectors, and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the 

effects of energy conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to 

estimate marginal effects, which yield a more accurate estimate of the actual impacts of energy 

conservation standards compared to considering only average effects. 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY 

DOE’s utility impact analysis applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2008. 

For example, the operating characteristics (energy conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of 

future electricity generating plants are as specified in the AEO2008 Reference Case. The utility 

impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by fuel type, that results 

a

 For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA0581(2003), March 2003. More detailed and more current documentation of various sub-models within NEMS can 

be obtained from EIA’s website: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html. b

 DOE/EIA approves the use of NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to 

code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy 

scenarios that are variations of DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS-BT (BT is DOE’s 

Buildings Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). 

c

 The NEMS-BT reference case shows very slight differences from the AEO reference case. In 2030, total 

commercial electricity consumption in the NEMS-BT reference case was 0.10 percent lower than the 2008 AEO 

reference case. For total electricity generation and total installed generating capacity, NEMS-BT produced 

estimates that were 0.08 percent and 0.34 percent lower than the AEO reference case, respectively. d

 In the discussion below, the abbreviated term “the reference case” should be understood to refer to the NEMS-BT 

reference case. 

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EERE-2006-BT-STD-0126 COMMENT 52.2 
 

from each trial standard level (TSL) as well as changes in electricity sales to the commercial 

sector. 

The utility analysis uses the AEO2008 Reference Case as the base case and treats the 

energy conservation standards on commercial refrigeration equipment as variations in policy. 

The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference in the reference case and the proposed 

energy conservation standards case. Because the implementation of energy conservation 

standards for commercial refrigeration equipment reduces the electricity demand by less than 

one-tenth of 1 percent (in the range of 0.01 to 0.06 percent in 2025, depending on the TSL) in 

any given year, its effect is difficult to adequately measure in the NEMS simulations. Therefore, 

larger reductions in demand are modeled, and results for the TSLs are interpolated. The effects 

are assumed to be linear within the range of interpolation. 

In its analysis of energy conservation standards for commercial refrigeration equipment, 

DOE adjusted the annual end-use energy consumption for refrigeration that was predicted within 

the commercial sector module of NEMS-BT. These decrements in the annual consumption were 

made for each census division using the method for computing energy savings developed in the 

national impact analysis (see Chapter 11). The changes in annual consumption were translated 

into changes in hourly system load as part of the normal NEMS modeling process using the 

NEMS’ standard commercial building refrigeration shapes. 

As mentioned above, the magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for 

NEMS-BT to produce stable results, outside the range of numerical noise, is larger than the 

highest energy conservation standard under consideration.e

 Therefore, DOE estimated results 

corresponding to the TSL using interpolation. It implemented reductions to both the commercial 

refrigeration end use at multiples of the proposed standards, and linearly interpolated actual 

changes in generation and capacity due to the standard from these outputs. Compared to the total 

savings for all commercial refrigeration equipment under Trial Standard Level 4, the multipliers 

used in this analysis were 2.8, 5.7, and 8.5. Appendix K provides details of the interpolation 

method and how the multiples were selected. 

The terminal year of the NEMS-BT model is 2030. Impacts beyond 2030 were 

extrapolated based on the pattern of electricity savings (in kWh) expected for a particular 

standard. The extrapolation was based on a comparison of the change in the NEMS-BT variable 

(e.g., coal-fired generation) to the change in electricity savings over the period 2025 to 2030. As 

a first step to implement the method, the changes in electricity savings over three periods—2030 

to 2035, 2035 to 2040, and 2040 to 2042—were expressed as ratios to the change in electricity 

savings over the period 2025 to 2030. The changes in a utility-sector variable were then 

multiplied by these ratios to estimate the changes in the periods after 2030. 

To illustrate the approach, the NEMS-BT results for TSL 3 indicate a reduction in 

installed generating capacity for coal plants (relative to the NEMS-BT reference case) of 0.204 

gigawatts (GW) in 2025 and 0.300 GW in 2030. The reduction of coal-fired generation between 

these two years is 0.097 GW (rounded from the exact difference). From the National Energy 

e

 The numerical noise stems, in part, from the fact that a precise balancing between the demand and supply sides of 

NEMS is not always achieved, given the iterative nature of the solution process. 

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Savings Model (NES) (described in Chapter 11 of the TSD), the change in electricity savings 

from the CRE conservation standards from 2030 to 2035 is about 89 percent of that for 2025 to 

2030. Thus, the change in coal generation between 2030 and 2035 is calculated to be (0.89) x 

(0.097) GW or 0.086 GW. Accordingly, the extrapolated value of the reduction in coal 

generating capacity compared to the reference case for 2035 is (0.300 + 0.086), or 0.386 GW. 

14.3 RESULTS 

The results from the reference case are shown in Table 14.3.1. Results for the various 

TSLs are presented in Table 14.3.2 through Table 14.3.6. Each table shows forecasts using 

interpolated results, as described in section 14.2, for commercial sector energy sales, total U.S. 

electricity generation, and installed capacity. 

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commercial Electricity Consumption, Electricity 

Generation, and Electricity Capacity 

NEMS-BT Results: 

2005* 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption** 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,275 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation† 

Coal (TWh) 

Petroleum (TWh) 

Gas (TWh) 

Nuclear (TWh) 

Renewables (TWh) 

Total (TWh) 

Installed Generating Capacity‡ 

Fossil Steam (GW)
 

Combined Cycle (GW) 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 

Nuclear (GW)
 

Renewables (GW) 

Total (GW) * 

2,014 

122 

761 

782 

372 

4,050 

430.9 

169.3 

130.3 

100.2 

114.9 

945.6 

2,056 

56 

912 

797 

474 

4,294 

434.4 

190.0 

137.4 

100.9 

133.4 

996.0 

2,180 

56 

911 

807 

530 

4,483 

416.9 

192.2 

129.4 

102.1 

139.8 

980.4 

2,359 2,573 2,808 

60 65 66 

835 773 755 

868 910 928 

601 651 674 

4,723 4,972 5,231 

434.8 464.6 494.2 

196.8 205.8 210.6 

131.4 143.0 164.4 

110.9 115.6 116.1 

148.1 155.2 163.3 

1,022.0 1,084.2 1,148.4 

Values for 2005 are reported by NEMS-BT, but are very close to the historical values shown in various tables in EIA's 

Annual Energy Review 2006 ** Comparable to panel in Table A8 of AEO 2008, Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions, that displays 

electricity sales by sector 

† Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2008 Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions. Includes generation from 

electricity-only, combined heat and power, and end-use generators 

‡ Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2008: Electricity Generating Capacity. Fossil Steam includes coal steam and other fossil 

fuel steam plants 

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Table 14.3.2 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.198 -0.414 -0.595 -0.741 -0.871 -1.038 -1.117 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.129 -0.283 -0.349 -0.294 -0.245 -0.183 -0.153 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.002 -0.005 -0.004 -0.001 0.003 0.007 0.008 

Gas (TWh) -0.060 -0.132 -0.162 -0.137 -0.114 -0.085 -0.071 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.012 -0.091 -0.161 -0.252 -0.294 

Renewables (TWh) 0.005 -0.017 -0.083 -0.186 -0.278 -0.396 -0.451 

Total (TWh) -0.186 -0.436 -0.611 -0.709 -0.796 -0.909 -0.962 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.007 -0.020 -0.034 -0.050 -0.065 -0.083 -0.092 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.002 -0.005 -0.008 -0.011 -0.013 -0.016 -0.018 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.005 0.012 0.018 0.023 0.027 0.033 0.035 

Nuclear (GW) 0.001 0.001 -0.003 -0.010 -0.016 -0.023 -0.027 

Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.004 -0.008 -0.012 -0.017 -0.019 

Total (GW) -0.003 -0.014 -0.031 -0.057 -0.079 -0.107 -0.121 

Table 14.3.3 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.760 -1.590 -2.287 -2.849 -3.348 -3.991 -4.294 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.497 -1.088 -1.341 -1.131 -0.944 -0.703 -0.590 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.009 -0.018 -0.016 -0.002 0.010 0.025 0.032 

Gas (TWh) -0.231 -0.506 -0.624 -0.526 -0.439 -0.327 -0.274 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.047 -0.351 -0.621 -0.968 -1.132 

Renewables (TWh) 0.020 -0.066 -0.320 -0.716 -1.068 -1.521 -1.735 

Total (TWh) -0.717 -1.678 -2.348 -2.726 -3.061 -3.494 -3.697 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.026 -0.075 -0.132 -0.194 -0.250 -0.321 -0.355 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.008 -0.021 -0.032 -0.042 -0.051 -0.063 -0.068 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.018 0.046 0.069 0.088 0.104 0.126 0.136 

Nuclear (GW) 0.004 0.003 -0.011 -0.037 -0.060 -0.089 -0.103 

Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.005 -0.015 -0.032 -0.047 -0.065 -0.074 

Total (GW) -0.011 -0.052 -0.121 -0.217 -0.303 -0.413 -0.465 

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Table 14.3.4 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -1.177 -2.462 -3.540 -4.410 -5.184 -6.179 -6.648 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.769 -1.685 -2.076 -1.750 -1.461 -1.089 -0.913 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.014 -0.027 -0.024 -0.003 0.015 0.039 0.050 

Gas (TWh) -0.358 -0.784 -0.966 -0.814 -0.679 -0.505 -0.424 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.073 -0.543 -0.961 -1.498 -1.752 

Renewables (TWh) 0.031 -0.102 -0.495 -1.109 -1.654 -2.355 -2.686 

Total (TWh) -1.110 -2.598 -3.635 -4.220 -4.740 -5.409 -5.724 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.040 -0.117 -0.204 -0.300 -0.386 -0.497 -0.549 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.012 -0.032 -0.050 -0.066 -0.080 -0.098 -0.106 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.028 0.071 0.107 0.136 0.162 0.195 0.210 

Nuclear (GW) 0.007 0.004 -0.017 -0.057 -0.093 -0.138 -0.160 

Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.008 -0.024 -0.049 -0.072 -0.101 -0.115 

Total (GW) -0.018 -0.081 -0.187 -0.337 -0.469 -0.640 -0.720 

Table 14.3.5 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -1.221 -2.553 -3.671 -4.573 -5.375 -6.407 -6.893 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.797 -1.747 -2.153 -1.815 -1.515 -1.129 -0.947 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.015 -0.028 -0.025 -0.004 0.016 0.040 0.052 

Gas (TWh) -0.371 -0.813 -1.001 -0.844 -0.704 -0.524 -0.439 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.076 -0.563 -0.997 -1.554 -1.816 

Renewables (TWh) 0.032 -0.106 -0.513 -1.150 -1.715 -2.442 -2.785 

Total (TWh) -1.151 -2.694 -3.769 -4.376 -4.915 -5.609 -5.936 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.041 -0.121 -0.211 -0.312 -0.401 -0.515 -0.569 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.013 -0.033 -0.052 -0.068 -0.083 -0.101 -0.110 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.029 0.074 0.111 0.141 0.168 0.202 0.218 

Nuclear (GW) 0.007 0.005 -0.017 -0.059 -0.096 -0.144 -0.166 

Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.008 -0.025 -0.051 -0.075 -0.105 -0.119 

Total (GW) -0.018 -0.084 -0.194 -0.349 -0.486 -0.663 -0.747 

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Table 14.3.6 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -1.531 -3.202 -4.604 -5.735 -6.741 -8.035 -8.645 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -1.000 -2.191 -2.700 -2.276 -1.900 -1.416 -1.187 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.019 -0.035 -0.032 -0.004 0.020 0.051 0.065 

Gas (TWh) -0.465 -1.019 -1.256 -1.058 -0.883 -0.657 -0.551 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.095 -0.707 -1.250 -1.949 -2.278 

Renewables (TWh) 0.041 -0.133 -0.644 -1.442 -2.151 -3.063 -3.493 

Total (TWh) -1.443 -3.378 -4.727 -5.488 -6.164 -7.034 -7.444 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.052 -0.152 -0.265 -0.391 -0.502 -0.646 -0.714 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.016 -0.042 -0.065 -0.085 -0.104 -0.127 -0.138 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.037 0.092 0.139 0.177 0.210 0.253 0.273 

Nuclear (GW) 0.009 0.006 -0.022 -0.074 -0.120 -0.180 -0.208 

Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.010 -0.031 -0.064 -0.094 -0.132 -0.150 

Total (GW) -0.023 -0.105 -0.244 -0.438 -0.610 -0.832 -0.936 

14.3.1 Impacts Related to Commercial Refrigeration Equipment – TSL 1 

Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts for all commercial refrigeration equipment under TSL 1. 

The top line of Table 14.3.2 shows that under TSL 1, total commercial electricity use in terawatt 

hours (TWh) declines by 0.20 TWh in 2015 and by 0.74 TWh in 2030. 

The reductions in total commercial electricity generation (shown as the last line in the 

second panel of the table) are slightly different than the reductions in commercial electricity use 

(shown in the first line of the table). These differences are to due to the net impact of various 

factors at the energy system level. The NEMS model suggests that electricity prices generally 

decline slightly following the implementation of the standard. These price changes lead to very 

small increases in demand for all major end-use sectors (residential, industrial, and commercialf

). 

An offsetting factor at the system level, however, is that some changes in generation also reflect 

transmission and distribution losses that respond to higher or lower sales to end users. 

As expected, total generation falls in a nearly continuous fashion with respect to the 

lower electricity demand prompted by the energy conservation standard. However, for the 

individual generation technologies by fuel type, the responses are much more varied. In the long 

term (e.g., by 2030), the NEMS-BT model suggests that there may be significant changes, 

compared to the reference case, between plants serving primarily base load uses (principally coal 

and nuclear) and plants using other fuels. The CRE energy conservation standards generally 

f

 Specifically, in the NEMS-BT commercial sector model, the response to higher electricity prices is modeled in 

two ways. First, the selection of more efficient equipment is prompted when new buildings are constructed or when 

equipment is replaced in existing buildings. Second, a general behavioral response to higher prices is modeled via a 

price elasticity in which a percentage increase in prices (x) is reflected by a different percentage reduction in 

consumption (y). For most commercial end uses, this price elasticity (y/x) is approximately -0.15. 

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reduce base load (and thus off-peak) electricity demand. This change in the load profile reduces 

the attractiveness of coal and, to a lesser extent, nuclear plants. 

In the near term (through 2020), the NEMS-BT model suggests slightly different 

behavior. Electricity generation from natural gas plants is somewhat lower than that in the 

reference case. Nuclear generation is relatively unchanged, reflecting the inability of that 

segment of the industry to adjust quickly to changes in demand. In general, because there is less 

opportunity over the next decade (through 2020) to build new plants and optimize the electricity 

supply system to meet the altered character of the load, other institutional and economic factors 

may be more relevant in how various generating facilities are dispatched. 

The bottom panel of results in Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts on generating capacity by 

type of generation technology. Total generation capacity is lower by about 0.06 gigawatts (GW) 

in 2030, roughly a 0.005 percent decline from the reference case. 

The components of total capacity are distinguished by type of generation technology 

rather than strictly by fuel type. Fossil fuel steam plants are primarily coal fired, but also include 

some petroleum use. High efficiency, combined-cycle plants and combustion turbines both use 

natural gas. 

Because coal plants are primarily used to meet base loads, the capacity of this type of 

plant shows a relatively large decline over the next two decades. Compared to the reference 

case, the total generation capacity of coal plants declines (relative to the reference case) 

throughout the forecast period and is lower by about 0.05 GW by 2030. Nuclear plants, which 

are also used to meet base loads, are projected to see a capacity decline of 0.01 GW by the same 

date. 

As opposed to combined cycle power plant capacity, combustion turbine capacity is 

higher than the reference case. Because the overall load profile shows a higher proportion of 

weather-related electricity consumption, combustion turbine capacity in 2030 is about 0.02 GW 

higher than the reference case. Combined cycle plants witness a decline in capacity of 0.01 GW 

as they tend to be slightly less weather-related than combustion turbines. Generation capacity 

from renewables slightly declines by 0.008 GW.g 

14.3.2 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 5 

Table 14.3.3 through Table 14.3.6 show the estimated impacts for TSLs 2 through 5. 

Table 14.3.4, corresponding to TSL 3, shows the impacts associated with energy conservation 

standards selected to match minimum life-cycle cost levels for each type of refrigeration 

equipment. As shown in this table, compared to the reference case, total generation in 2030 

would decline by about 4 TWh. The major reductions in generation occur at coal, nuclear, gas, 

g

 Any comparison between the generation and capacity impacts shown in the table is complicated by the fact that 

various types of generating plants operate for different numbers of hours during the year. Base load plants, such as 

fossil fuel steam and nuclear, are relatively comparable as they operate for roughly the same number of hours during 

the year. Because renewables comprise a number of technologies with various operating hours, it is not surprising 

to see a divergence between the behavior of generation and capacity at this aggregate level. 

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and renewable energy facilities. Total generation capacity falls by 0.34 GW relative to the 

reference case or about 0.03 percent. 

Table 14.3.5 shows impacts under TSL 4 for all CRE products considered in this 

rulemaking. TSL 4 corresponds to a case in which for the majority of products the standards are 

set at the maximum (technologically feasible) level. For five products (as cited in Chapter 9), the 

levels are set at the minimum life-cycle cost level identical to those in TSL 3. In this mixed case, 

the 2030 impact on total generation is nearly 4 percent greater than that for TSL 3. Total 

capacity is lower about 0.35 GW compared to the reference case. 

In TSL 5, the standards for all products are set to the maximum (technologically feasible) 

level. The impacts from this case are shown in Table 14.3.6. In this case, the 2030 impact on 

total generation is 30 percent greater than that of TSL 3, or 5.4 TWh. Total capacity is lower by 

about 0.44 GW, compared to the reference case. 

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REFERENCES 

1. U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA), Annual Energy 

Outlook 2008, June 2008. Washington, D.C. DOE/EIA-0383(2008). 

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