Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 1 o f 8 0 

# A r i z on a R e gion al H az e

T e ch n i c al Supp o r t D o cum e n t

P re p are d a nd R e v i e w e d

b y :

M a r g a r e t A l kon, S c o tt B ohn i n g , E u g e n e C h e n, F r a n c i s c o D óñ e z

, S t e v e F r e y

,

C o ll ee n M c K a

u g h a n, T h o m a s W e bb, C h ar l o tt e W it h e y

J u l y 201 2



### T a ble of C o nt e nts

I. D ef i n iti ons a nd A cr o n y

m s 2

I I. I n t r od u c ti on a nd B ac k g r ound

4

A. R e l a ti onsh i p o f t h i s T S D t o ou r P r opos a l 4

B. B ac k g r ound on R e g i on a l H a z e a nd B A R T R e qu i r e m e n t s 4

C. Aff e c t e d Cl a ss I A r ea s 5

II I. E P A’ s Ev a l u a ti on o f Ar i z on a’ s B A R T D e t er mi n a ti on s 8

A. Ar i z on a’ s I d e n ti f

i ca ti on o f B A R T S ou r c e s 8

1. AD E Q’ s A n a l y s i s 8

2. E P A’ s Ev a l u a ti on 9

B. Ar i z on a’ s B A R T C on t r o l A n a l y s i s 9

1. AD E Q’ s A n a l y s i s 10

2. E P A’ s Ev a l u a ti on 10

C. Ar i z on a’ s B A R T D e t er m i n a ti ons 12

1. A E PC O A p ac h e G e n e ra t i n g S t a ti on U n it 1 13

2. A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd 3 18

3. C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4 24

4. C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2 28

D . En f o r c ea b ili t y o f B A R T L imit s 34

I V. T ec hn i ca l I n f

o r m a ti on f o r E P A’ s P r opos e d F I P A c ti ons 35

A. E P A’ s B A R T A n a l y s i s f o r NO

x 35

1. C os t o f C o m p li a n ce 35

2. En e r g y a nd N o n -a i r

Env i r on m e n t a l I m p ac t s 37

3. P o ll u ti on C on t r o l Equ i p m e n t i n U s e a t t h e S ou r c e 38

4. R e m a i n i n g U s e f

u l L i fe o f t h e S ou rc e 38

5. D e g r e e o f I m p r o v e m e n t i n V i s i b ili t y 38

B. E P A’ s B A R T D e t er

mi n a ti on s 45

1. A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd 3 45

2. C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4 53

3. C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2 61

C. En f o rc e a b ili t y R e qu i r e m e n t s 71

V. A pp e nd i x A : L i s ti n g o f Mod e li n g

- R e l a t e d F il e s 76

V I. A pp e nd i x B : V i s i b ili t y I m p ac t a nd B e n e f it T a b l e s 80Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 2 o f 8 0 

### I. D ef

ini t i o ns a nd A c r on y ms

( 1) Th e w o r ds o r i n iti a l s A ct o r C AA m ea n o r r ef

e r t o t h e Cl ea n A i r A c t , un l e ss t h e

c on t e x t i nd i ca t e s o t h er

w i s e

.

( 2) Th e i n iti a l s A D

EQ m ea n o r re f

er t o t h e Ar i z on a D e p artm e n t o f Env i r on m e n t a l

Q u a li t y

.

( 3) Th e i n iti a l s AEP CO m ea n o r re f er t o Ar i z on a

E l e c t r i c P o w er C oop e ra ti v e

.

( 4) Th e i n iti a l s AF UDC m e a n o r re f er t o a ll o w a n ce f

o r f unds us e d du r i n g c ons t r

u c ti on.

( 5) Th e i n iti a l s APS m ea n o r ref e r Ar i z on a P ub li c S e r v i ce C o m p a n y

.

( 6) Th e w o r ds Ar i

zona a nd S t a te m ea n t h e S t a t e o f Ar i z on a

.

( 7) Th e i n iti a l s BART m ea n o r re f er t o B e s t A v a il a

b l e R e t r o f

it T ec hno l og y

.

( 8) Th e t er

m Cl ass I ar ea r ef er s t o a m a nd a t o r y Cl a ss I F e d era l ar e a. 1

( 9) Th e i n iti a l s C

BI m ea n o r ref

e r t o C on f

i d e n ti a l B u s i n e ss I n f

o r m a ti on

.

( 10) Th e i n iti a l s C

E MS m ea n o r re f

er t o c on ti nuous e m i ss i on m on it o r i n g s y s t e m

.

( 11) Th e i n iti a l s C O

FA m ea n o r re f

er t o c l os e -c oup l e d ov erf

i re a i r

.

( 12) Th e i n iti a l s CY m ea n o r refer t o C a l e n d ar Y ea r

( 13) Th e i n iti a l s E GU m ea n o r re f er t o E l ec t r i c G e n er a ti n g U n it

.

( 14) Th e i n iti a l s ESPs m ea n o r re f er t o e l e c t r os t a ti c p re c i p it a t o r s.

( 15) Th e w o r ds EPA

, we

, us o r our m ea n o r r ef e r t o t h e U n it e d S t a t e s Env i r on m e n t a l

P r o t ec ti on A g e n c y

.

( 16) Th e i n iti a l s F GD m ea n o r re f er t o f l u e g a s d e su l f

u r i z a ti on

.

( 17) Th e i n iti a l s F GR m ea n o r ref e r t o f l u e g a s rec i r c u l a ti on.

( 18) Th e i n iti a l s F

IP m ea n o r ref

e r t o F e d e r a l I m p l e m e n t a ti on P l a n.

( 19) Th e i n iti a l s F

L Ms m ea n o r re f

er t o F e d e r a l L a nd M a n a g er s

.

1 A l t h oug h s tat e s a n d t r i b e s m a y d e s i g n ate a s C la s s I a dd iti o n al a r ea s w h i c h t h e y c on s i d e r t o h a v e v i s i b ili t y a s a n

i m por ta n t v al u e

, t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e v i s i b i l i t y pro g r a m s et f or t h i n s ecti o n 169 A o f t h e C A A app l y o n l y t o

“ m a n d at o r y C la s s I Fe d e r al a r ea s

. ”Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 3 o f 8 0 ( 20) Th e i n iti a l s IM

PR O VE m ea n o r r ef

e r t o I n t e ra g e n c y Mon it o r i n g o f P r o t ec t e d V i su a l

Env i r on m e n t s m on it o r i n g n e t w o r k

.

( 21) Th e i n iti a l s I

PM m ea n o r ref

e r t o I n t e g r a t e d P l a n n i n g Mod e l

.

( 22) Th e i n iti a l s LNB m ea n o r ref e r t o l o w-NO

x bu r

n er s.

( 23) Th e i n iti a l s LTS m ea n o r ref e r t o L o n g

- T e r

m S t ra t e g y

.

( 24) Th e i n iti a l s MW m ea n o r ref e r t o m e g a w a tt s.

( 25) Th e i n iti a l s N

EI m ea n o r ref

e r t o N a ti on a l E mi ss i on I n v e n t o r y

.

( 26) Th e i n iti a l s NH 3 m ea n o r ref

e r t o a mm on i a

.

( 27) Th e i n iti a l s NO

x m ea n o r ref

e r t o n it r og e n o x i d e s.

( 28) Th e i n iti a l s NP m ea n o r r efer t o N a ti on a l P ar k

.

( 29) Th e i n iti a l s OC m ea n o r ref e r t o o r g a n i c car

bon

.

( 30) Th e i n iti a l s O

FA m ea n o r ref

e r t o ov er f

i re a i r

.

( 31) Th e i n iti a l s PM m ea n o r ref e r t o p arti c u l a t e m a tt e r

.

( 32) Th e i n iti a l s PM 2 .5 m ea n o r re f

er t o f i n e p arti c u l a t e m a tt er w it h a n a e r o d y n a mi c

d i a m e t er o f l e ss t h a n 2.5 mi cr o m e t er s

.

( 33) Th e i n iti a l s PM 10 m ea n o r re f

er t o p arti c u l a t e m a t t er w it h a n a er o d y n a mi c d i a m e t er

o f

l e ss t h a n 10 mi cr o m e t er s (c o ar s e p arti c u l a t e m a tt e r )

.

( 34) Th e i n iti a l s P

NG m ea n o r re f

er t o p i p e li n e n a t u r a l g a s

.

( 35) Th e i n iti a l s ppm m ea n o r ref e r t o p art s p e r milli on.

( 36) Th e i n iti a l s PSD m ea n o r ref e r t o P re v e n ti on o f S i g n i f i c a n t D e t e r i o ra ti on

.

( 37) Th e i n iti a l s RAVI m ea n o r re f er t o R ea so n a

b l y A tt r i bu t a

b l e V i s i b ili t y I m p a i r

m e n t

.

( 38) Th e i n iti a l s RMC m ea n o r re f er t o R e g i on a l Mod e l i n g C e n t er

.

( 39) Th e i n iti a l s RP m ea n o r r efer t o R e a son a b l e P r o g r e ss.

( 40) Th e i n iti a l s RPG

o r RP Gs m ea n o r r e fer t o R e a s o n a b l e P r o g re ss G o a l ( s )

.

( 41) Th e i n iti a l s RP Os m ea n o r re f er t o r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g o r g a n i z a ti ons

.

( 42) Th e i n iti a l s S CR m ea n o r ref e r t o S e l ec ti v e C a t a l y

t i c R e du c ti onAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 4 o f 8 0 ( 43) Th e i n iti a l s S

IP m ea n o r ref

e r t o S t a t e I m p l e m e n t a ti on P l a n

.

( 44) Th e i n iti a l s S

NCR m ea n o r re f

er t o S e l ec ti v e N on

- ca t a l y ti c R e du c ti o n

( 45) Th e i n iti a l s SO 2 m ea n o r ref e r t o su l f u r d i o x i d e

.

( 46) Th e i n iti a l s S O

FA m ea n o r re f

er t o s e p a ra t e d o v e r f

i re a i r

.

( 47) Th e i n iti a l s SRP m ea n o r ref e r t o S a lt Ri v er P r o

j ec t A g r i c u lt u ra l I m p r o v e m e n t a nd

P o w er D i s t r i c t

.

( 48) Th e i n iti a l s t

py m ea n t ons p er y e a r

.

( 49) Th e i n iti a l s T

SD m ea n o r ref

e r t o T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

.

( 50) Th e i n iti a l s V

OC m ea n o r re f

er t o vo l a til e o r g a n i c c o m pounds.

( 51) Th e i n iti a l s WA m e a n o r ref e r t o W il d er

n e ss Ar e a

.

( 52) Th e i n iti a l s W

EP m e a n o r re f

er t o W e i g h t e d E mi ss i ons P o t e n ti a l

.

( 53) Th e i n iti a l s W

F GD m ea n o r re f

er t o w e t f

l u e g a s d e su l f

u r i z a ti on.

( 54) Th e i n iti a l s W

RAP m e a n o r re f

er t o t h e W e s t er

n R e g i o n a l A i r P art n er sh i p

.



### II. I nt r o d uc t i on a nd B a c k g r o u nd

A. R e l a t i o n s h ip of th is T SD to o ur P r o p o s al

E P A i s p r opos i n g t o p ar

t i a l l y a p p r ov e a nd p arti a l l y d i s a

pp r o v e po r ti ons o f t h e Ar i z on a

R e g i on a l H a z e S t a t e I m p l e m e n t a ti on P l a n ( S I P ) s ub mitt e d b y t h e Ar i z on a D e p artm e n t o f

Env i r on m e n t a l Q u a li t y ( AD E Q) on F e b r u a r y 28, 2011. S p ec i f

i ca l l y , E P A ’ s p r opos e d ac ti on

p ert a i ns t o B e s t A v a il a

b l e R e t r o f

it T ec hno l og y ( B A R T ) f

o r t h r e e e l e c t r i c g e n era ti n g s t a ti ons i n

Ar i z on a : A p ac h e G e n e ra t i n g S t a ti on, C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t a nd C o r on a do G e n era ti n g S t a ti on. E P A

i s a l so p r opos i n g a F e d e r a l I m p l e m e n t a ti on P l a n ( F I P ) t o re p l ace t h e p o r ti ons o f t h e S I P it i s

p r opos i n g t o d i s a

pp r o v e

. E P A w ill p r opos e t o a dd r e ss o t h er f a c iliti e s a nd o t h er e l e m e n t s o f t h e

Ar i z on a S I P i n a l a t er ac t i on.

Th i s t ec hn i ca l suppo r t d o c u m e n t ( T S D) i s no t m e a n t t o b e a c o m p l e t e r a ti on a l e f o r ou r

p r opos e d d ec i s i ons ; f

u r t h er d i s c uss i on i s i n c l ud e d i n t h e F e d e ra l R e g i s t er n o ti ce f o r t h i s p r opos e d

ac ti on. Th e T S D p r ov i d e s a dd iti on a l i n f o r m a ti on c on cer

n i n g so m e o f t h e t ec hn i ca l b a s e s f o r o u r

p r opos e d ac ti ons ; a dd iti on a l i n f o r m a ti on a nd a n a l y s i s i s c on t a i n e d i n t h e d o c k e t

. I n f o r m a ti on i n

t h i s do c u m e n t m a y

s u g g e s t w e h a v e m a d e a f i n a l d e t er mi n a ti on. H o w e v er

, a ll a sp ec t s o f ou r

T S D shou l d b e c ons i d er e d p ar t o f ou r p r opo s a l a n d are sub

j e c t t o c h a n g e b a s e d on c o mm e n t s a nd

o t h er i n f o r m a ti on w e m a y r ece i v e du r i n g ou r pub l i c c o mm e n t p er i od

.



### B. B ac kg r ou nd on R e g i o n al H a ze a nd B A RT Re q u i r e m e n ts

G ood v i s i b ili t y i s im po r t a n t t o t h e e n j o y m e n t o f n a ti on a l p ar

ks a nd s c e n i c area s. R e g i o n a l

h a z e i s a i r

po ll u ti on t h a t i s t ra nspo r t e d l o n g d i s t a n ce s, ca us i n g r e du c e d v i s i b ili t y i n n a ti on a l p a r ksAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 5 o f 8 0 a nd w il d er

n e ss ar e a s. Th i s h a z e i s c o m pos e d o f s m a ll p arti c l e s t h a t a

bso r b a nd s ca tt er l i g h t

, aff e c ti n g t h e c l ar i t y a nd c o l o r o f w h a t w e s ee . T h e po ll u t a n t s t h a t crea t e t h i s h a z e are su l f a t e s,

n it ra t e s, o r g a n i c car

bon, e l e m e n t a l c a r

bon a nd so i l dus t

. H u m a n -caus e d (a n t h r opo g e n i c) sou r ce s

i n c l ud e i ndus t r y

, m o t o r v e h i c l e s, a g r i c u lt u ra l a nd f o re s t r y bu r n i n g

, a nd w i n db l o w n dus t fr o m

r o a ds a nd f

ar mi n g p r a c ti ce s

.

Th ere are 156 n a ti on a l p a r ks a nd w il d er

n e ss ar e a s t h a t h a v e b e e n d e s i g n a t e d b y C o n g re ss

a s “ m a nd a t o r y fe d e ra l Cl a ss I a r ea s ” (r e fe r re d t o h ere i n a s Cl a ss I ar e a s )

. T h e Cl ea n A i r A c t

c on t a i ns a n a ti on a l g o a l o f re du c i n g m a n

- m a d e v i s i b ili t y im p a i r m e n t i n a ll Cl a ss I a rea s. To m ee t

t h i s g o a l

, t h e Env i r on m e n t a l P r o t ec ti on A g e n c y ( E P A) a dop t e d t h e R e g i o n a l H a z e R u l e s i n J u l y

1999. Th e s e r

u l e s c o m p l e m e n t a nd a r e i n a dd iti on t o “ P h a s e I ” v i s i b ili t y r u l e s a dop t e d b y

E P A i n

1980.

O u r

p r opos a l re g ar d i n g t h e Ar i z on a R H S I P c on t a i ns a g e n e r a l d i s c uss i on o f r e g i on a l

h a z e a nd E P A’ s R e g i on a l H a z e R u l e ( R H R )

, i n c l ud i n g B A R T. Th e R H R p r ov i d e s t h e f

o ll o w i n g

s i x fac t o r s t h a t a B A R T d e t er mi n a ti on m us t t a k e i n t o acc oun t ( 40 C F R 51

. 308 (e)( 1 )( ii )( A )) :

· t h e a v a il a

b l e t e c hno l o g y t o c on t r o l e mi ss i ons a nd t h e t ec hn i ca l f ea s i b ili t y o f eac h

t ec hno l o g y ;

· t h e c os t o f c o m p li a n c e f o r t h e t ec hn i c a l l y f

ea s i b l e c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s ;

· t h e e n e r g y a nd non -a i r q u a li t y im p ac t s o f t h e c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s ;

· a n y e x i s ti n g a i r

po ll u ti on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s a t t h e sou rce ;

· t h e re m a i n i n g us ef

u l li fe o f t h e sou rce ; a n d

· t h e d e g r e e o f

v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t w h i c h m a y rea son a b l y b e a n ti c i p a t e d t o re su lt fr o m

t h e v ar i ous c on t r o l t ec h n o l o g i e s

.

A ll bu t t h e f

i r s t o f t h e s e f

ac t o r s a r e a l so e x p re ss l y re qu i re d t o b e t a k e n i n t o acc oun t und e r

S ec ti on 169 A ( g )( 2 ) o f t h e Cl ea n A i r A c t ( C AA)

, 42 U

. S

. C . § 7491 ( g ) ( 2 )

. A lt hou g h w e li s t s i x

fac t o r s, t h e f

i r s t fac t o r i s no t a l w a y s e x p li c it l y s t a t e d a nd t h e r e m a i n i n g f a c t o r s are fre q u e n t l y

ref e rre d t o a s t h e “f

i v e- fa c t o r a n a l y s i s ” f

o r t h e R H R B A R T d e t er

mi n a ti on

.



### C. A f f e c t ed C l a ss I A r e as

Ar i z on a h a s t w e l v e m a n d a t o r y Cl a ss I a r ea s, a s s h o w n i n T a b l e 1. F i g u r e 1 sho w s eac h o f

t h e t h ree f

ac iliti e s a dd re s s e d b y t h i s p r opos e d ac t i on, a s w e ll a s t h e Cl a ss I area s l o ca t e d w it h i n

300 k il o m e t er s ( k m ) o f e ac h f a c ili t y . E P A’ s R e g i o n a l H a z e g u i d a n c e sp ec i f i e s t h e 300 k m

d i s t a n ce a s a n a c ce p t a

b l e p r o x y f

o r i d e n ti f y i n g Cl a ss I a r ea s poss i b l y af f ec t e d b y e mi ss i ons fr o m

a fac ili t y

. I n a dd iti on t o t h e m a n y Cl a ss I a r ea s i n Ar i z on a aff e c t e d b y t h e s e fac iliti e s ’ e mi ss i ons,

t h ere a re s e v era l Cl a ss I area s i n o t h e r s t a t e s t h a t po t e n ti a l l y a f

fec t e d b y t h e s e t h r e e f

a c iliti e s.

A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on (A p ac h e) i s w it h i n 300 k il o m e t er s o f G il a W il d er n e ss A r ea i n N e w

M e x i c o. C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t ( C ho ll a) i s w it h i n 300 k il o m e t er s o f C a p it o l R eef N a ti on a l P ar

k i n

U t a h, M e s a V er d e N a ti o n a l P ar k i n C o l o ra do, a n d t h e G il a W il d er n e ss A r ea i n N e w M e x i c o.

C o r on a do G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on ( C o r on a do ) i s w it h i n 300 k il o m e t er s o f M e s a V er d e N a ti on a l P ar k

i n C o l o ra do a nd t h e S a n P e d r o P ar ks W il d er n e ss Ar ea

, t h e B a nd e li er W il d er n e ss A r ea

, B osqu e

d e l A p ac h e W il d er

n e ss Ar ea

, a nd t h e G il a W il d er n e ss Ar e a i n N e w M e x i c o.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 6 o f 8 0 T a b l e 1

- A r i z o n a C l ass I A re as

C l ass I A re a A cre a g e

C h i r i ca hu a N a ti on a l Mo n u m e n t 11,985

C h i r i ca hu a W il d er

n e s s 87,700

G a li u r o W il d er

n e ss 76,317

Gr a nd C a n y on N a ti on a l P ar k 1,218,375

M a z a t z a l W i l d er

n e ss 252,390

Moun t B a l d y W il d er

n e ss 7,000

P e t r i f i e d F o r e s t N a ti on a l P ar

k 93,532

P i n e Moun t a i n W il d er

n e ss 20,061

S a g u a r o N a ti on a l P ar

k 84,000

S i erra A n c h a W il d er

n e s s 20,850

S up er s titi on W i l d er

n e ss 160,200

S y ca m o r e C a n y on W il d er n e s s 55,937Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 7 o f 8 0 F i g u re 1

- A r i z o n a C l a s s I A re as a nd I n i t i a l P r o p osa l B AR T F a c ili t i e sAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 8 o f 8 0 

### III. E P A ’s E v a lu a t i on of A r i z o na ’s BA RT D e t erm i n a t i o ns

A. A r i z o n a ’s I d e n t i f i c a t i on of BA RT So u rc es

1. AD E Q ’s A n a l ys is

I n t h e f i r s t s t e p o f t h e B A R T p r o ce ss, AD E Q i d e n ti f i e d a ll t h e B A R T

- e li g i b l e sou rce s

w it h i n t h e j u r i sd i c ti on o f t h e S t a t e a nd l o ca l a g e n c i e s, a nd a pp li e d t h e t h r ee e li g i b ili t y c r it er i a i n

t h e R H R ( 40 C F R

51.301 ) t o t h e s e f

a c iliti e s. Th e cr it er i a are : 1 ) o n e o r m o re e mi ss i on un it s a t

t h e fac ili t y are c l a ss i f

i e d i n on e o f t h e 26 i ndus t r i a l sou rce c a t e g o r i e s li s t e d i n t h e B A R T

G u i d e li n e s ; 2 ) t h e e mi ss i on un it ( s ) d i d no t op era t e b ef o re A u g us t 7, 1962, bu t w a s i n e x i s t e n ce

on A u g us t 7, 1977 ; a nd 3 ) t h e t o t a l po t e n ti a l t o e mit o f a n y v i s i b ili t y im p a i r i n g po ll u t a n t fr o m t h e

sub j ec t e mi ss i on un it s i s g r ea t e r o r e q u a l t o 250 t ons p er y e a r

. AD E Q d e t e r mi n e d t h a t A p ac h e

, C ho ll a a nd C o r on a do h a v e e mi ss i ons un it s t h a t m ee t t h e s e c r it er i a

.

I n a s ec ond s t e p, AD E Q i d e n ti f i e d t hos e B A R T -e l i g i b l e sou r ce s t h a t m a y re a son a b l y b e

a n ti c i p a t e d t o ca

u s e o r c o n t r i bu t e t o v i s i b il i t y im p a i r m e n t a t a n y Cl a ss I a r e a . Th e B A R T

G u i d e li n e s a ll o w s t a t e s t o c ons i d er e x e m p ti n g s o m e B A R T

- e li g i b l e sou rc e s fr o m B A R T re v i e w

i n t h e e v e n t t h a t t h e y m a y no t r e a son a b l y b e a n ti c i p a t e d t o ca

us e o r c on t r i b u t e t o a n y

v i s i b ili t y

im p a i r m e n t i n a Cl a ss I a rea

. F o r s t a t e s us i n g m o d e li n g t o d e t e r mi n e t h e a

p p li ca b ili t y o f B A R T

t o s i n g l e sou r c e s, t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s no t e t h a t t h e f i r s t s t e p i s t o s e t a c o n t r i bu ti on t h re sho l d t o

a ss e ss w h e t h e r t h e im p a c t o f a s i n g l e so u rce i s su f

f i c i e n t t o ca

us e o r c on t r i b u t e t o v i s i b ili t y

im p a i r m e n t a t a Cl a ss I a rea

. F u r t h er

, t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s s t a t e t h a t

, “ [ a ] s i n g l e sou r ce t h a t i s

re spons i b l e f

o r a 1.0 d ec i v i e w c h a n g e o r m o re sh o u l d b e c ons i d ere d t o ‘ ca u s e’ v i s i b ili t y

im p a i r m e n t .” 2 Th e B A R T G u i d e li n e s a l so s t a t e t h a t “ t h e a pp r op r i a t e t h re sh o l d f

o r d e t er mi n i n g

w h e t h er a so u rce c on t r i b u t e s t o v i s i b ili t y im p a i r m e n t ’ m a y r e a son a

b l y d i f f er a c r oss s t a t e s, ” bu t

,

“ [ a ] s a g e n e ra l m a tt er

, a n y t h re sho l d t h a t y ou us e f o r d e t er mi n i n g w h e t h e r a sou rce ‘ c on t r i bu t e s ’

t o v i s i b il i t y im p a i r

m e n t shou l d no t b e h i g h er t h a n 0.5 d ec i v i e w s. ” F o r d e t e r mi n i n g w h e t h er a

sou rce i s sub

j ec t t o B A R T, AD E Q us e d a c on t r i b u ti on t h re sho l d o f 0.50 dv.

Th e W R A P ’ s R e g i on a l Mod e li n g C e n t er ( R M C ) d e v e l op e d a m o d e li n g p r o t o c o l

, e n titl e d

“ C A L M E T /C A L P U FF P r o t o c o l f o r B A R T E x e m p ti on S cree n i n g A n a l y s i s f o r Cl a ss I A r ea s i n

t h e W e s t er

n U n it e d S t a t e s.” 3 Th e p r o t o c o l sp e c i f i e d t h e us e o f C A L P U F F v er s i on 6.112 a nd

C A L MET v er s i on 6.211

, w h i c h w e r e t h e a cce p t e d m od e l v er s i ons a t t h e tim e. 4 Th e W R A P R M C

us e d t h i s p r o t o c o l t o p er f o r m C A L P U FF m od e li n g f o r e a c h o f t h e w e s t er

n s t a t e s. AD E Q t h e n

re li e d on t h e R M C ’ s m od e li n g t o a ss e ss t h e po t e n ti a l o f B A R T -e li g i b l e so u r ce s t o ca u s e o r

c on t r i bu t e t o Cl a ss I v i s i b ili t y im p a i r m e n t . T h e v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s o f A p ac h e

, C ho ll a a nd

C o r on a do are e a c h w e ll a bov e t h e 0.5 dv “c on t r i b u ti on ” t h re sho l d a s w e ll a s t h e 1.0 dv

“ca us a ti on ” t h re sho l d. 5 A s a re su lt

, AD E Q d e t er m i n e d t h a t e mi ss i ons un it s a t t h e A p ac h e

, C ho ll a

,

a nd C o r on a do f

ac iliti e s a re sub

j ec t t o B A R T a s li s t e d i n T a b l e 2

.

2 70 F R 39 1 04

, 39 1 6 1

3 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 15

. 4 E P A s u b s e q u e n tl y

r e q u i r e d t h e u s e s o f C A L P UFF a n d C A LME T v e r s i o n 5

. 8 f or n e w m o d eli n g app licati o n s

. H o w e v e r, E P A i s acce p ti n g B A R T m od el i ng p e r f o r m e d acc ord i ng t o a pr e v i o u s l y appro v e d pro t o c o l

, a s w a s t h e

ca s e f or t h e WR A P pro t o c o l

. 5 See D o c k et

I t e m N o

. B

- 12

. Vi s i b ili t y i m p ac t s a s l i s te d i n “ S u mm a r y o f WR A P R M C B A R T M od eli ng f or

A r iz o n a” D r a f

t N o

. 5 , M a y 7

, 2005

. I n itial dr a f t r elea s e d o n A

pr il 4

, 2005

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 9 o f 8 0 T a b l e 2

- S o u rce s Sub ject t o B ART

F ac ili t y B A R T E mi ss i on

U n it s S ou rce C a t e g o r y P o ll u t a n t s

Ev a l u a t e d W R A P

Mod e l e d

I m p a ct a

A E PC O A p ac h e

G e n e r a ti n g S t a ti o n U n it s 1, 2, a nd 3 F oss il -f u e l f i r e d

s t ea m e l ec t r i c p l a n t s

o f m o re t h a n 250

milli on B r iti sh

t h er m a l un it s p er

hou r h ea t i npu t NO

x , SO 2 , PM 10 1.95 dv

A PS C ho ll a P o w er

P l a n t U n it s 2, 3, a nd 4 NO

x , SO 2 , PM 10 2.88 dv

SRP C o r on a do

G e n e r a ti n g S t a ti o n U n it s 1 a nd 2 NO

x , SO 2 , PM 10 3.32 dv

a A v er a g e o f t h e 98 th p er c e n til e acr oss 2001, 2002 a nd 2003 f o r t h e m os t a ff

ec t e d Cl a ss I A rea

.

2. E P A ’s E v a l u ati o n

W e are p r opos i n g t o a

pp r ov e AD E Q’ s d e t er

mi n a t i on t h a t A p ac h e

, C ho ll a

, a nd C o r on a do

are e l i g i b l e f

o r a nd sub

j e c t t o a B A R T c on t r o l a n a l y s i s. E ac h o f t h e t h r e e f a c iliti e s a dd re ss e d i n

t h i s no ti ce (A p ac h e

, C ho ll a a nd C o r on a do ) a g r e e d w it h AD E Q’ s d e t e r mi n a ti on t h a t t h e y a re

sub j ec t t o B A R T. W h il e w e do no t a g r ee w it h a ll a sp ec t s o f t h e p r o ce ss b y w h i c h AD E Q

i d e n ti f i e d it s e li g i b l e-f

o r

- B A R T a nd sub

j e c t

- t o

- B A R T sou rce s, w e do a g re e w it h AD E Q t h a t t h e

t h ree f ac iliti e s i n t h i s no t i ce a r e e l i g i b l e f o r a nd s u b

j ec t t o B A R T. S i n ce ou r ac ti on t od a y f o c u s e s

on on l y t h e t h r e e f

ac iliti e s, w e w ill a dd re ss A D E Q ’ s o t h er sub j ec t

- t o

- B A R T d e t er

mi n a ti ons i n a

s e p ara t e ac ti on a t a l a t er d a t e

.



### B. A r iz o n a ’ s B A RT C o n t r ol A n a l ys is

Th e t h i r d s t e p o f t h e B A R T e v a l u a ti on i s t o p erf o r m a f i v e

- fac t o r B A R T a n a l y s i s a s t h e

b a s i s f o r m a k i n g a B A R T c on t r o l d e t er mi n a ti on. I n p erf

o r mi n g t h i s a n a l y s i s, 40 C F R

51.308 (e)( 1 )( ii )( A ) re qu i re s t h a t s t a t e s c ons i d e r t h e f o ll o w i n g fac t o r s on a po ll u t a n t

- b y

- po ll u t a n t

b a s i s : ( 1 ) Th e c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce o f e ac h t e c hn i c a l l y f ea s i b l e c on t r o l t e c h no l o g y

, ( 2 ) t h e e n er g y

a nd non -a i r

q u a li t y e nv i r on m e n t a l im p ac t s o f c o m p li a n ce o f t h e c on t r o l t e c hno l o g i e s, ( 3 ) a n y

e x i s ti n g po ll u ti on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y i n us e a t t h e sou rce

, ( 4 ) t h e re m a i n i ng us ef u l li fe o f t h e

sou rce

, a nd ( 5 ) t h e d e g r e e o f im p r ov e m e n t i n v i s i b ili t y w h i c h m a y r e a son a b l y b e a n ti c i p a t e d t o

re su lt fr o m t h e us e o f

s u c h t ec hno l o g y . T h e s e f ac t o r s are fre q u e n t l y re f

er re d t o a s t h e “f

i v e

- f a c t o r

a n a l y s i s ” f

o r t h e R H R B A R T d e t er

mi n a ti on.

Th e B A R T G u i d e li n e s r e c o mm e nd t h a t a B A R T a n a l y s i s i n c l ud e t h e f o ll o w i n g f

i v e s t e ps.

Th e G u i d e li n e s p r ov i d e d e t a il e d i ns t r u c ti ons on ho w t o p erf

o r m eac h o f t h e s e s t e ps. 6

S t e p 1

— I d e n ti f

y A ll A v a il a

b l e R e t r o f

it C on t r o l T ec hno l o g i e s

, S t e p 2—E limi n a t e T ec hn i ca l l y I n f e a s i b l e O p ti ons,

S t e p 3—Ev a l u a t e C on t r o l E ffec ti v e n e ss o f R e m a i n i n g C on t r o l T ec hno l o g i e s,

S t e p 4—Ev a l u a t e I m p a c t s a nd D o c u m e n t t h e R e s u lt s, 7 a nd

S t e p 5—Ev a l u a t e V i s i b ili t y I m p ac t s

.

6 40 C F R P a r t 51

, A

pp e n d i x Y

, § I V

. D

. 7 Ste p 4 i n cl u d e s e v al u a ti n g t h e c o s t o f c o m p lia n ce

, e n e rg y i m

p a c t s

, n o n- a i r q u ali t y e n v i ron m e n tal i m p ac t s

, a n d

r e m ai n i n g u s e fu l l i f

e

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 10 o f 8 0 1. A D E Q ’s A n a l ys is

AD E Q’ s B A R T a n a l y s e s m os t l y f o ll o w e d t h i s a

p p r o ac h, w it h t h e a dd iti on o f a s t e p t o

i d e n ti f y e x i s ti n g c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s a nd a s t e p c o n c l ud i n g “ s e l ec ti on o f B A R T.” 8 Thus,

AD E Q’ s a n a l y s e s i n c l u d e d t h e f o ll o w i n g s e v e n s t e ps :

S t e p 1 : I d e n ti f

y t h e E x i s ti n g C on t r o l T ec hno l o g i e s i n U s e a t t h e S ou rc e

S t e p 2 : I d e n ti f

y A ll A v a il a

b l e R e t r o f

it C on t r o l O p ti ons

S t e p 3 : E limi n a t e A ll T ec hn i ca l l y I n f e a s i b l e C on t r o l O p ti ons

S t e p 4 : Ev a l u a t e C on t r o l E ffec ti v e n e ss o f R e m a i n i n g T e c hno l o g i e s

S t e p 5 : Ev a l u a t e t h e En e r g y a nd N on -A i r Q u a li t y Env i r on m e n t a l I m p ac t s a nd D o c u m e n t R e su lts 9

S t e p 6 : Ev a l u a t e V i s i b ili t y I m p a c t s

S t e p 7 : S e l ec t B A R T

2. E P A ’s E v a lu at i on

W e f i nd t h a t t h i s ov era ll a

pp r o ac h t o t h e f

i v e

- fac t o r a n a l y s i s i s g e n e r a l l y r e a son a b l e a nd

c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e R H R a nd t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s. W it h re sp ec t t o t h e t h ree sou r c e s c ov e re d b y

t h i s ac ti on, w e f

i nd t h a t AD E Q’ s im p l e m e n t a ti o n o f t h e f i r s t f ou r s t e ps o f it s a

pp r o ac h i s

g e n era l l y r ea son a

b l e a nd c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e R H R a nd t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s. H o w e v er

, w e do

no t a g r ee w it h A D E Q’ s a n a l y s i s i n s t e ps 5 t h r o u g h 7. 10 I n p arti c u l ar , un d er s t e p 5, w e f

i nd t h a t

t h e c os t s o f c on t r o l w e re no t ca l c u l a t e d i n a cc o r d a n ce w it h t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s ; und er s t e p 6,

w e f i nd t h at t h e v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s w ere no t a pp r o p r i a t e l y e v a l u a t e d a nd c o n s i d ere d ; a nd und e r

s t e p 7, w e f

i nd t h a t AD E Q d i d no t p r ov i d e a su ff i c i e n t e x p l a n a ti on a nd ra t i on a l e f o r it s

d e t er mi n a ti ons. W h il e w e f

i nd t h e s e p r ob l e m s i n a ll o f AD E Q’ s B A R T a n a l y s e s f o r t h e t h r ee

sou rce s, t h e y

do no t a p p e ar t o h a v e h a d a

subs t a n t i v e im p ac t on AD E Q ’ s s e l ec ti on o f c on t r o l s f o r

SO 2 a nd PM 10

. W it h re s p ec t t o AD E Q’ s NO

x B A R T d e t er mi n a ti ons, ho w e v er

, w e f i nd t h a t t h e s e

p r ob l e m s re su lt e d i n c on t r o l d e t er mi n a ti ons t h a t a r e i n c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e R H R a nd t h e B A R T

G u i d e li n e s. W e su mm ar i z e b e l o w ho w AD E Q a p p li e d t h e f

i v e f a c t o r s a nd i d e n ti f

y a nu m b er o f

i ssu e s c o mm on t o t h e t h ree re l e v a n t sou r c e s.

a) C o st of C o m p l i a n ce

AD E Q i n c l ud e d i n f

o r m a ti on re l a ti n g t o c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce i n it s R H S I P

, i n c l ud i n g

i n f o r m a ti on on t o t a l a nnu a li z e d c os t s, c os t p er t on o f po ll u t a n t re m ov e d, a n d i n cre m e n t a l c os t p er

t on o f po ll u t a n t re m ov e d f

o r t h e v ar i ous c on t r o l op ti ons c ons i d ere d. C os t c a l c u l a ti ons w ere

p re p a r e d b y c onsu lti n g f

i r m s on b e h a l f

o f t h e fac i l iti e s a s p art o f t h e i r B A R T a n a l y s e s t h a t r e li e d

on a c o m b i n a ti on o f

v e n d o r quo t e s, fac ili t y

d a t a

, a nd i n t er

n a l c os t ca l c u l a ti on m e t hodo l o g y

. Th e s e B A R T a n a l y s e s w ere subs e q u e n t l y sub mitt e d t o AD E Q

. U pon r e v i e w

, AD E Q r e qu e s t e d

cert a i n c l ar i f

y i n g i n f o r m a ti on fr o m t h e f

a c iliti e s re g ar d i n g t h e s e c os t ca l c u l a ti ons, i n c l ud i n g

g r ea t e r d e t a il on t h e und e r l y i n g a ssu m p ti ons a nd a dd iti on a l suppo r ti n g do c u m e n t a ti on. AD E Q

r ece i v e d re spon s e s o f

v ar y i n g d e t a il t o t h e s e re qu e s t s, a nd i n c l ud e d t h i s i n f o r m a ti on a s p art o f it s

R H S I P

. A s d e s c r i b e d i n f u r t h er d e t a il i n t h e d i s c uss i on o f eac h f ac ili t y

, t h e re a r e c ert a i n a s p ec t s

8 A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, pp

. 1 38

- 143

. 9 W e n o te t h at

, w h ile AD E Q r e f e r s t o it s S te p 5 a s a n e v a l u at i o n o f e n e r g y a n d n on

- ai r q u al it y e n v i ron m e n tal

i m p act s

, t h i s s te p al s o i n c l u d e s c o n s i d e r ati o n o f t h e c o s t s o f c o m p li a n ce a n d t h e r e m a i n i ng u s e f u l li f e o f t h e s o u r ce

,

c o n s i s te n t w i t h t h e B A R T G u i d eli n e s

, 40 C F R P a r t 51

, A pp e n d i x Y

, § I V

. D

. 4

. 10 W e d o n o t b elie v e t h at AD E Q a ppr o pr iatel y u s e d “ t h e m o s t s t r i n g e n t e m i s s i o n c o n t ro l l e v el t h at t h e te c h n o l og y i s

cap a b le o f ac h ie v i n g ” f

or S CR p e r t h e B A R T G u i d el i n e s at 40 C F R P a r t 51

, A pp e n d i x Y

, § I V

. D

. 3

. T h i s i s s u e i s

a ddr e ss e d o n a s o u r ce

- b y- s o u r ce b a s i s u n d e r t h e c o s t a n d v i s i b ili t y f act or s o f o u r e v a l u ati o n i n s ecti o n V I. C

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 11 o f 8 0 o f t h e s e c os t c a l c u l a ti on s t h a t w e f i nd i n c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s a nd E P A’ s C on t r o l

C os t M a nu a l

. W e a l so d i s a g ree w it h t h e m a nn er i n w h i c h AD E Q i n t er p re t e d t h e c os t

- r e l a t e d

i n f o r m a ti on i n c l ud e d i n it s R H S I P

.

b) E n e r gy a nd N o n

- a ir Qu a l i ty E

n v i r o nm e n t al I

m pa c ts

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t h a t t h e v ar i ous c on t r o l o p ti ons w ill i n c u r i n crea s e d e n e r g y us a g e b y a n y e l ec t r i c g e n e r a ti n g un it

( E GU) w h ere t h e y a r e i n s t a ll e d. I n p arti c u l a r

, S e l ec ti v e C a t a l y ti c R e du c ti o n ( SCR ) re t r o f it w ill

ca us e a n a dd iti on a l p re s s u re d r op i n t h e f l u e g a s s y s t e m du e t o t h e ca t a l y s t

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fac ili t y m a n a g er s t o s e ll o r d i spos e o f f

l y a sh. 11 F i n a l l y

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x . E P A

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c) Exis t i ng P o ll ut

i on C o n t r ol T e c h n o l o gy

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i n t w o w a y s : f

i r s t

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a n a l y s i s )

, a nd s e c ond, i n t h e d e v e l op m e n t o f b a s e l i n e e mi ss i on ra t e s f o r us e i n c os t ca l c u l a ti ons

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. A s d e s c r i b e d i n g r ea t e r d e t a il i n t h e

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, A E PC O

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a pp r o ac h t o b e r e a son a

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on v i s i b ili t y a n a l y s i s p e r f o r m e d b y t h e f

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11 A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

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it s i n a dd iti on a l ar e a s i s w ar r a n t e d. A l t hou g h t h e R H R a nd t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s do

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it s a t a dd iti o n a l ar e a s c ons i d e r a b l y

und er s t a t e s t h e ov e ra ll b e n ef it o f c on t r o l s t o im p r ov e v i s i b ili t y

. A m o r e c o m p l e t e a ss e ss m e n t o f

t h e d e g r e e o f

v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t f o r c a nd i d a t e B A R T c on t r o l s w ou l d i n c l ud e c ons i d e r a ti on

o f t h e nu m b er

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c o m p l e t e l y b y t h e tim e t h e y re a c h a Cl a ss I ar e a

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pp r o x i m a t e l y a dd iti v e . Th i s i ssu e o f a dd iti v e un it b e n ef it s c ou l d b e a dd re s s e d i n

so m e w a y w it hou t m od e li n g a ll t h e un it s t og e t h er

, bu t AD E Q do e s no t a pp e ar t o h a v e do n e t h i s,

a nd t h er e f

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r o m c o n t r o l s.

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u n d ere s tim a t e v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s a nd t hus t h e

v i s i b ili t y b e n e f it o f c on t r o l s. A m b i e n t a mm on i a m ea su re m e n t s f o r us e a s i npu t t o m od e li n g are

s car c e

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. I n t h e a bs e n c e

o f c o m p e lli n g a mm on i a

b ac k g r ound e s tim a t e s, E P A g u i d a n c e r ec o mm e n d s t h e us e o f a 1 ppb

a mm on i a b ac k g r ound f

o r area s i n t h e w e s t. 14



### C. A r i z o n a ’s BA RT D et e r mi n a t i o ns

O u r e v a l u a ti on o f AD E Q ’ s B A R T d e t er mi n a ti ons i s o r g a n i z e d b y sou r ce

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b e n e f i t s o cc u rr i n g at d i f

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. R a t h e r, t h e i s s u e

i s acc o u n ti n g i n s o m e w a y f or t h e f u ll s et o f e x p ecte d v i s i b il it y b e n e f it s

. A n ati o n a l pro g r a m f

or a ddr e ss i n g r e g i o n al

h aze mu s t i n h e r e n tl y a ddr e ss t h e mu lti p le a r ea s t h at o cc u r i n a r e g i o n

. 14 I n te r a g e n c y Wo r kg ro u

p O n Ai r Q u ali t y

M od eli n g (I W A Q M ) P h a s e 2 S u mm a r y R e por t A nd R ec o m m e n d ati on s

F or M od eli ng L o ng R a ng e T r a n s por t I m p act s (E P A

- 454 / R -98

- 019)

, E P A O A Q P S

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- 2

. P a g e 2-1 o f A E P C O A p ac h e 1 B A R T A n a l y s i s

16 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 02

. A

pp e n d i x A

(E c o n o m ic A n a l y s i s ) o f A E P C O A p ac h e 1 B A R T A n a l y s i s

. C o n t ro l O p ti on

b E m i s s i o n

R at e

( l b / MM B tu ) E m i s s i on s

R e m o v e d

( t o n s / y r ) A n nu alize d

C o s t

($ / y ea r ) C o s t

- e f

f ect i v e n e ss d

($ /t o n ) Vi s i b ili t y I m pro v e m e nt c

(d v )

A v e r a g e I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m

pr e v i o u s ) T o tal ( f

ro m

b a s e ca s e ) I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m

pr e v i o u s )

B a s eli n e 0

. 30 1

-- -- -- -- -- --

L N B + FG R 0

. 1 5 29 7 551

, 9 8 2 1

, 85 9

-- 0

. 19 4

--

R O F A 0

. 1 6 27 8 939

, 0 9 3 3

, 37 8

- 20

, 37 4 0

. 25 6 0

. 06 2

SN C R w i t h

L N B +

FG R 0

. 1 1 37 6 1

, 07 9

, 3 89 2

, 87 1 1

, 43 2 0

. 2 4

- 0

. 01 6

R O F A w / R o t a m i x 0

. 1 1 37 6 1

, 50 5

, 8 25 4

, 00 5 NA a 0

. 2 4 NA a

S C R w i t h L N B +

FG R 0

. 0 7 45 5 5

, 70 4

, 7 98 12

, 5 38 53

, 1 52 0

. 40 9 0

. 16 9

a T h e pr e v i o u s op ti o n

, SN CR w i t h L N B + FG R h a s t h e s a m e e m i s s i o n r ate

, m a k i n g a n i n c r e m e n t a l c o m p a r i s o n i n v ali d

.

b P e r A D E Q' s a n d A E P C O ' s a n a l y s e s

, c o n t ro l op ti o n s a r e r a nk e d h e r e b y c o s t

, n o t b y e m i s s i o n r at e

c Vi s i b ili t y i m

pro v e m e n t at C h i r ica h u a W il d e r n e s s A r ea

, t h e C la ss I a r ea e x h i b it i ng t h e h i gh e s t i m p a c t

d C o s t

- e f f ect i v e n e ss v a l u e s ob tai n e d f r o m T a b le 10

. 3

, A

pp e n d i x D ( T SD ) o f A r iz o n a R H S I P

. See D o c k et I t e m B

- 01

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 15 o f 8 0 B A R T im p l e m e n t a ti on d a t e o f 2013. 17 A E PC O e limi n a t e d m a n y c on t r o l o p ti ons, i n c l ud i n g SCR

, b a s e d on h i g h c os t

- e ff

e c ti v e n e ss ( $ /t on )

, a nd p r i m ar i l y e x a mi n e d t h e L N B w / F G R a nd R O F A

c on t r o l op ti ons. A E PC O no t e d t h a t L N B w it h F G R re su lt e d i n l a r g er i n c r e m e n t a l v i s i b ili t y

im p r ov e m e n t t h a n R O F A

, a nd p r opos e d L N B w it h F G R , bu r

n i n g e it h er n a t u ra l g a s o r f u e l o il

, a s

B A R T f o r NO

x a t A p ac h e U n it 1.

I n o r d er t o e v a l u a t e A E PC O’ s B A R T a n a l y s i s, A D E Q re q u e s t e d suppo r ti n g i n f o r m a ti on

e x p l a i n i n g a ssu m p ti ons us e d i n t h e ec ono mi c a n a l y s i s, b a s e li n e e mi ss i ons, a nd c on t r o l

t ec hno l o g y

op ti ons. B a s e d on t h i s a dd iti on a l i n f o r m a ti on, a s w e ll a s on A E PC O’ s o r i g i n a l

a n a l y s i s, A D E Q a c c e p t e d t h e c o m p a n y ’ s p r opo s e d B A R T r e c o mm e nd a ti o n o f L N B w it h F G R

f o r U n it 1, bu t a dd e d a f

u e l re s t r i c ti on t o a ll o w on l y t h e us e o f n a t u r a l g a s. Th i s d e t er

mi n a ti on

c o rre sponds t o a B A R T e mi ss i on li m it f o r NO

x a t A p ac h e U n it 1 o f 0.056 l b / MM B t u. 18

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u a t i on

W e d i s a g r ee w it h m u lti p l e a sp ec t s o f t h e a n a l y s i s f o r A p ac h e U n it 1. W e c o ns i d er t h e us e

o f e i g h t y e ar s f

o r t h e p l a n t ’ s re m a i n i n g u s ef u l li f e i n t h e c on t r o l c os t ca l c u l a ti ons a s un j us ti f i e d i n

t h e a bs e n c e o f do c u m e n t a ti on t h a t t h e un it w ill s h u t do w n i n 2021. W e a l so no t e t h a t c on t r o l c os t

ca l c u l a ti ons i n c l ud e c os t s t h a t are d i s a ll o w e d b y E P A’ s C on t r o l C os t M a n u a l , su c h a s o w n e r’ s

c os t s a nd A F U D C

. B o t h o f t h e s e e l e m e n t s h a v e t h e ef f ec t o f i n f l a ti n g c os t ca l c u l a ti ons a nd t hus

t h e c os t -e f

fec ti v e n e ss o f t h e v ar i ous c on t r o l op ti ons c ons i d ere d. I n a dd iti on, w e do no t c ons i d er

us i n g i d e n ti ca l b a s e li n e e mi ss i ons f o r N o. 2 f u e l o il a nd n a t u ra l g a s a

pp r op r i a t e

, a lt ho u g h t h i s

li k e l y d i d no t af

f ec t e it h e r A E PC O’ s o r AD E Q ’ s B A R T d e t e r mi n a ti on, w h i c h w a s i n f

o r m e d

p r im ar i l y b y e mi ss i on e s tim a t e s b a s e d on N o. 6 f u e l o il

, t h e h i g h e s t e mitti n g f u e l

.

B y i n c l ud i n g a

n a t u r a l g a s

- on l y f

u e l re s t r i c ti on, A D E Q’ s B A R T d e t er mi n a t i on o f L

N B

w it h F G R re su lt s i n a NO

x e mi ss i ons limit o f 0. 0 56 l b / MM B t u, w h i c h i s m o re s t r i ng e n t t h a n a n y

o f t h e c on t r o l op ti ons t h a t A E PC O a nd AD E Q c o n s i d ere d i n c on j un c ti on w i t h N o. 6 o r N o. 2

f u e l o il

. N e it h er A E PC O ’ s no r AD E Q’ s a n a l y s i s, ho w e v er

, i n c l u d e d v i s i b ili t y m od e li n g f

o r

c on t r o l op ti ons on a

n a t u ra l g a s

- on l y

b a s i s. Th e a bs e n ce o f

s u c h i n f o r m a t i on do e s no t a ll o w us t o

f u l l y e v a l u a t e i f

op ti ons m o re s t r i ng e n t t h a n L N B w it h F G R are a

pp r op r i a t e on a

n a t u r a l g a s

- on l y

b a s i s. N e v ert h e l e ss, w e a re p r opos i n g t o a pp r o v e AD E Q’ s NO

x B A R T d e t er mi n a ti on o f L

N B

w it h F G R ( n a t u r a l g a s u s a g e on l y ) w it h a n e mi ss i on limit o f 0.056 l b / M M B t u f

o r A p ac h e U n it 1.

b) B A RT for PM

10

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

A p ac h e U n it 1 c u r

r e n t l y op era t e s w it h no PM 10 c on t r o l s. I n it s B A R T a n a l y s i s sub mitt e d

t o AD E Q

, A E PC O d e v e l op e d b a s e li n e e mi ss i ons f o r m u lti p l e f

u e l us e s ce n ar i os i n c l ud i n g

n a t u ra l g a s, a nd N o. 2 a n d N o. 6 f u e l o il us a g e

. B a s e li n e PM 10 e mi ss i ons f o r a ll f u e l s w e re

ca l c u l a t e d b a s e d on A P

- 4 2 e mi ss i on fac t o r s. 19 A su mm a r y o f t h e s e e mi ss i o n s i s i n T a b l e 4.

A E PC O e x a mi n e d m u lt i p l e c on t r o l op ti ons f o r PM 10 a t A p ac h e U n it 1, i n c l ud i n g a d d

- on c on t r o l s

a nd f u e l s w it c h i n g

. A s u mm a r y o f c os t o f c o m p l i a n ce a nd d e g r ee o f v i s i b i li t y im p r o v e m e n t f o r

17 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 02

. P a g e 2

- 1 o f A E P C O A p a c h e 1 B A R T A n a l y s i s

18 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 01

. E m i s s i o n

r ate a s s p eci f

ie d i n T a b le 1 0

. 2

, A

pp e n d i x D ( T ec hn ical S u ppor t D o c u m e n t ) o f

A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

19 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 02

, P a g e 2

- 1 o f A E P C O A p a c h e 1 B A R T A n a l y s i s

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 16 o f 8 0 t h e s e op ti ons i s su mm ar i z e d i n T a b l e 6. Th e s e c o s t a nd v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t v a l u e s a r e b a s e d

on b a s e li n e a nd c on t r o l c a s e e mi ss i ons c o r r e spon d i n g t o N o. 6 f

u e l o il us a g e

, w h i c h o f t h e t h r ee

f u e l s c ons i d e r e d g e n e ra t e s t h e g r ea t e s t PM 10 e mi s s i ons. I n it s B A R T a n a l y s i s, A E PC O c it e d h i g h

c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce a nd mi n im a l v i s i b i li t y im p r o v e m e n t s f o r t h e PM 10 c on t r o l op ti ons, a nd

p r opos e d no PM 10 c on t r o l s a s B A R T f o r PM 10 , us i n g e it h e r

n a t u r a l g a s o r N o. 2 f

u e l o il

. B a s e d

on t h e d a t a a nd a n a l y s i s p r ov i d e d b y A E PC O

, A D E Q d e t er mi n e d t h a t B A R T f

o r PM 10 a t A p ac h e

U n it 1 i s no a dd iti on a l c on t r o l s, bu t a l so d e t er mi n e d t h a t a f

u e l r e s t r i c ti on t o a ll o w on l y t h e us e

o f n a t u ra l g a s w a s a

p p r o p r i a t e . Th i s c o r

r e sponds t o a PM 1 0 B A R T e mi ss i on limit f o r A p ac h e

U n it 1 o f 0.0075 l b / MM B t u. 20

T a b l e 6

- A p a c h e U n i t 1 : A r i z o n a ' s C os t a nd V i s i b ili t y A n a l y s i s f o r P M 10

C o n t ro l O p ti on E m i s s i o n

R at e

( l b / MM B tu ) E m i s s i on s

R e m o v e d

( t o n s / y r ) A n nu alize d

C o s t

($ / y ea r ) C o s t

- e f

f ect i v e n e ss a

($ /t o n) Vi s i b ili t y I m pro v e m e nt

b

(d v )

A v e r a g e I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m

pr e v i o u s ) T o tal ( f

ro m

b a s e ca s e ) I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m

pr e v i o u s )

B a s eli n e 0

. 07 37

-- -- -- -- -- --

Fa br ic Filte r 0

. 01 5 11 6 3

, 61 5

, 9 38 31

, 1 72

-- 0

. 01 0

--

F u el s w it c h t o

P NG 0

. 00 75

-- 0

-- -- -- --

a C o s t

- e f f ect i v e n e ss v a l u e s a s r e por te d i n T a b le 10

. 6

, A pp e n d i x D ( T SD ) o f A r iz o n a R H S I P

. See D o c k et I te m B

- 01

. b A s s um m a r ize d i n T a b le 5

- 12

, A E P C O A p ac h e 1 B A R T A n a l y s i s

. See D o c k et I t e m B

- 02

. Vi s i b ili t y i m

pro v e m e n t at

Ch i r ic a h u a W il d e r n e ss A r ea

, t h e C l a ss I a r ea e x h i b iti n g t h e h i g h e s t i m p ac t

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u a t i on

AD E Q’ s PM 10 a n a l y s i s i n c l ud e s m a n y o f t h e s a m e i ssu e s w e no t e d i n it s NO

x a n a l y s i s,

i n c l ud i n g t h e us e o f a n e i g h t

- y e ar p l a n t r e m a i n i n g us ef

u l li fe

, a nd i n c l us i on o f c os t s t h a t are

d i s a ll o w e d b y

E P A ’ s C on t r o l C os t M a nu a l

. A lt hou g h w e do no t a g r ee w it h e l e m e n t s o f AD E Q’ s

PM 1 0 B A R T a n a l y s i s f

o r A p ac h e U n it 1, w e f

i nd t h a t it s c on c l us i on i s rea s on a b l e

, g i v e n t h e

s m a ll v i s i b il i t y im p r o v e m e n t p r o j ec t e d t o r e su lt fr o m PM 1 0 re du c ti ons a t t h i s U n it . Thus, w e are

p r opos i n g t o a

p p r ov e A D E Q’ s PM 1 0 B A R T d e t e r mi n a ti on f o r A p ac h e U n i t 1.

c) B A RT for SO 2

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

A p ac h e U n it 1 c u r

r e n t l y op era t e s w it h no SO 2 c o n t r o l s. I n it s B A R T a n a l y s i s sub mitt e d

t o AD E Q

, A E PC O d e v e l op e d b a s e li n e e mi ss i ons f o r m u lti p l e f

u e l us e s ce n ar i os i n c l ud i n g

n a t u ra l g a s, a nd N o. 2 a n d N o. 6 f u e l o il

. B a s e li n e n a t u ra l g a s e mi ss i ons w e re b a s e d upon t h e

h i g h e s t 75 p e rce n t l o a d 2 4

- hou r SO 2 e mi ss i on l e v e l s re po r t e d i n E P A’ s A c i d R a i n D a t a b a s e f o r

2006. S i n ce t h e on l y f

u e l bu r n e d i n 2006 w a s n a t u ra l g a s, b a s e li n e e mi ss i ons f o r N o. 2 o r N o. 6

f u e l o il us a g e c ou l d no t b e d e v e l op e d b a s e d on d a t a fr o m 2006. B a s e li n e e mi ss i ons f o r N o. 2 a nd

20 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 01

. E m i s s i o n

r ate a s s p eci f

ie d i n T a b le 1 0

. 5

, A

pp e n d i x D ( T ec hn ical S u ppor t D o c u m e n t ) o f

A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I PAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 17 o f 8 0 N o. 6 f u e l o il us a g e w er e e s tim a t e d us i n g A P

- 42 e mi ss i on fac t o r s. 21 A su mm a r y o f t h e s e

e mi ss i ons i s su mm ar i z e d i n T a b l e 4.

A E PC O a l so e x a mi n e d m u lti p l e c on t r o l op ti ons f o r SO 2 on A p ac h e 1, i n c l ud i n g a d d

- on

c on t r o l s a nd f

u e l

- s w it c h i n g

. A su mm a r y o f c os t o f c o m p li a n ce a nd d e g r e e o f v i s i b ili t y

im p r ov e m e n t f

o r t h e s e o p ti ons i s su mm ar i z e d i n T a b l e 7. Th e s e c os t a nd v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

v a l u e s a r e fr o m b a s e li n e a nd c on t r o l ca s e e mi ss i ons c o rre spond i n g t o N o. 6 f u e l o il us a g e

, w h i c h

i s t h e f u e l t y p e t h a t g e n er a t e s t h e g r e a t e s t SO 2 e mi ss i ons. I n it s B A R T a n a l y s i s, A E PC O c it e d

h i g h c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce a nd mi n im a l v i s i b il i t y i m p r ov e m e n t s f o r t h e SO 2 c on t r o l op ti ons, a nd

p r opos e d no a dd iti on a l SO 2 c on t r o l s, us i n g e it h er n a t u ra l g a s o r N o. 2 f u e l o il

, a s B A R T f

o r SO 2

. AD E Q d e t e r

mi n e d t h a t B A R T f

o r SO 2 i s no a dd it i on a l c on t r o l s, bu t a dd e d a f u e l r e s t r i c ti on t o

a ll o w on l y t h e us e o f

n a t u ra l g a s. Th i s c o r re spon d s t o a n SO 2 B A R T e mi ss i on limit f o r A p ac h e

U n it 1 o f 0.00064 l b / MM B t u. 22

T a b l e 7

- A p a c h e U n i t 1 : A r i z o n a ' s C os t a nd V i s i b ili t y A n a l y s i s f o r S O2

C o n t ro l

O p ti on E m i s s i o n

R at e

( l b / MM B tu ) E m i s s i on s

R e m o v e d

( t o n s / y r ) A n nu alize d

C o s t

($ / y ea r ) C o s t

- e f

f ect i v e n e ss a

($ /t o n ) Vi s i b ili t y I m pro v e m e nt

b

(d v )

A v e r a g e I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m

pr e v i o u s ) T o tal ( f

ro m

b a s e ca s e ) I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m

pr e v i o u s )

B a s eli n e 0

. 90 6

-- -- -- -- -- --

F u el s w it c h t o

l o w

- s u l fu r

fu e l o il 0

. 05 1

-- -- -- -- -- --

S pr a y d r y e r

a b s orb e r ( dr y

FGD) 1 0

. 1 0 1

, 58 7 3

, 88 1

, 7 06 2

, 44 6

-- 0

. 76 5

--

F u el s w it c h t o

P NG 0

. 00 0 6 4

-- 0

-- -- -- --

a C o s t

- e f f ect i v e n e ss v a l u e s a s r e por te d i n T a b le 10

. 8

, A pp e n d i x D ( T SD ) o f A r iz o n a R H S I P

. See D o c k et I te m B01

. b A s s um m a r ize d i n T a b le 5

- 12

, A E P C O A p ac h e 1 B A R T A n a l y s i s

. See D o c k et I t e m B

- 02

. Vi s i b ili t y i m

pro v e m e n t

at Ch i r ic a h u a W il d e r n e ss A r e a

, t h e C la s s I a r ea e xh i b i t i n g t h e h i g h e s t i m p act

.

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u ati o n

Th e SO 2 a n a l y s i s i n c l ud e s m a n y o f t h e s a m e i ssu e s w e no t e d i n t h e NO

x a n a l y s i s,

i n c l ud i n g t h e us e o f a n e i g h t

- y e ar p l a n t r e m a i n i n g us ef

u l li fe

, a nd i n c l us i on o f c os t s t h a t are

d i s a ll o w e d b y

E P A ’ s C on t r o l C os t M a nu a l

. AD E Q’ s B A R T d e t er mi n a ti o n

, re qu i r i n g t h e us e o f

on l y n a t u r a l g a s, re su lt s i n a n SO 2 e mi ss i on li m it o f 0.00064 l b / MM B t u. Th i s e mi ss i on ra t e i s

m o re s t r i ng e n t t h a n a n y o f t h e c on t r o l op ti ons t h a t AD E Q c ons i d e re d i n c o n j un c ti on w it h N o. 6

f u e l o il

. W e are p r opos i n g t o a pp r ov e AD E Q’ s B A R T d e t er mi n a ti on f

o r SO 2 a s a n e mi ss i on limit

o f 0.00064 l b / MM B t u a t A p ac h e U n it 1.

21 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 02

. P a g e 2

- 2 o f A E P C O A p a c h e 1 B A R T A n a l y s i s

22 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 01

. E m i s s i o n

r ate a s s p eci f

ie d i n T a b le 1 0

. 7

, A

pp e n d i x D ( T ec hn ical S u ppor t D o c u m e n t ) o f

A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I PAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 18 o f 8 0 2. A p a c he U ni ts 2 a nd 3

A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd 3 a re bo t h d r y

- bo tt o m

, Ril e y S t ok er t u r bo -f i re d bo il e r s, eac h w it h a

g r oss un it ou t

pu t o f 204 M W

. B o t h un it s are B A R T -e li g i b l e a nd a r e c o a l

- f i re d bo il er s op e ra ti n g

on sub

- b it u mi nous c o a l

. A lt hou g h t h e r e a r e p h y s i ca l d i ff e re n c e s b e t w ee n t h e t w o un it s, AD E Q

f ound t h a t t h e ov e r a ll d i ffere n ce s a re mi n im a l a n d t h eref o r e c ons i d e re d bo t h un it s t o g e t h er i n it s

B A R T a n a l y s i s. A s w it h A p ac h e U n it 1, AD E Q’ s a n a l y s i s r e li e d l a r g e l y o n i n f o r m a ti on p r ov i d e d

b y A E PC O a nd it s c on t ra c t o r . Th i s i n f o r m a ti on i s su mm ar i z e d b e l o w

, a l on g w it h AD E Q’ s

d e t er mi n a ti ons f

o r e ac h p o ll u t a n t a nd E P A’ s e v a l u a ti on.

W h il e t h e f

o ll o w i n g s ec t i ons d e s cr i b e bo t h AD EQ ’ s a nd E P A’ s e v a l u a ti ons b a s e d on t h e

i n f o r m a ti on i n t h e rec o r d

, w e no t e t h a t w e re c e i v e d a dd iti on a l i n f o r m a ti on fr o m A E PC O on J un e

29, 2012, re l a t e d t o t h e a ff o r d a b ili t y o f NO

x c on t r o l s a t A p ac h e

. A E PC O s t a t e s t h a t aff o r d a b ili t y

i s affec t e d b y it s s m a ll s i z e

, t h e l o w i n c o m e p r o f i l e s o f A E PC O’ s s er

v i c e a rea

, a nd A E PC O’ s

a b ili t y t o ac c e ss f

i n a n c i n g

. W h il e t h i s i n f

o r m a ti on ca m e i n t oo l a t e t o b e e v a l u a t e d a s p a r t o f t h i s

p r opos e d r

u l e m a k i n g , E P A h a s pu t t h e i n f o r m a ti o n i n t h e do c k e t a nd w ill e v a l u a t e it du r i n g t h e

pub li c c o mm e n t p er i od. 23

a) B A RT f or NO

x

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

A E PC O d e v e l op e d b a s e li n e NO

x e mi ss i ons b y e x a mi n i n g t h e a v e r a g e NO

x e mi ss i ons

fr o m 2002 t o 2007, a tim e p er i od i n w h i c h bo t h u n it s w ere e qu i pp e d w it h O F A a s NO

x e mi ss i on

c on t r o l s. 24 A E PC O e x a mi n e d s e v e r a l NO

x c on t r o l t e c hno l o g i e s, i n c l ud i n g c o m bus ti on c on t r o l s

a nd a dd

- on pos t

- c o m bus ti on c on t r o l s. A su mm a r y o f Ar i z on a’ s c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce a nd

v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s a sso c i a t e d w it h t h e s e op ti ons i s p re s e n t e d i n T a b l e 8. A D E Q re li e d on t h i s

i n f o r m a ti on fr o m t h e f

a c i li t y t o d e v e l op it s R H S I P. 25 Es tim a t e s o f c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y e mi ss i on

ra t e s w e re d e v e l op e d b a s e d on a c o m b i n a ti on o f v e ndo r quo t e s, c on t r ac t o r i n f

o r m a ti on, a nd

i n t er n a l A E PC O i n f

o r m a ti on re g ar d i n g e nv i r on m e n t a l up g r a d e s. 26 A nnu a l e mi ss i on re du c ti ons

w ere ca l c u l a t e d b a s e d o n t h e e mi ss i on ra t e e s tim a t e s c o m b i n e d w it h a nnu a l ca p a c i t y f ac t o r s a s

sp ec i f i e d b y A E PC O. 27 C on t r o l c os t s w ere d e v e l op e d b a s e d on a c o m b i n a ti on o f v e ndo r quo t e s

a nd c on t r a c t o r i n f

o r m a ti o n. Th e s e c os t c a l c u l a ti o n s p r ov i d e d li n e it e m su mm ar i e s o f c a p it a l c os t s

a nd a nnu a l op e ra ti n g c o s t s, bu t d i d no t i n c l ud e f u r t h er suppo r ti n g i n f

o r m a ti on su c h a s d e t a il e d

e qu i p m e n t li s t s, v e ndo r

quo t e s, o r t h e d e s i g n b a s i s f o r li n e it e m c os t s.

23 See D o c k et

I t e m C

- 16

, L e t te r f

r o m M i c h elle F r eea r k

( A E P C O ) t o De bor a h J o r d a n (E P A ), A E P C O ’ s C o m m e n t s

o n B A R T f

or A p ac h e Ge n e r a t i ng Stati o n

, J u n e 29

, 20 1 2

. 24 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 03 a n d B -04, A E P C O A p a c h e B A R T A n a l y s e s

, p a g e 2

- 2

. 25 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 03 a n d B -04, A E P C O A p a c h e B A R T A n a l y s e s

. T h i s i n f o r m ati o n i s a l s o s um m a r ize d i n

D o c k et I t e m B

- 01

, A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, T a

b le s 10

. 1 0 t h ro ugh 10

. 13

26 A s l i s te d i n T a b le 3

- 2

, D o c k et I t e m s B

- 03 a n d B

- 04

, A E P C O A p a c h e B A R T A n a l y s e s

. 27 A s l i s te d i n T a b le 2

- 1

, D o c k et I t e m s B

- 03 a n d B

- 04

. A n nu a l cap aci t y f act or s u s e d f

or ea c h u n it a r e 92 % ( A

p ac h e

2)

, a n d 87 % ( A

p ac h e 3 )Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 19 o f 8 0 T a b l e 8

- A p a c h e U n i t s 2 a nd 3 : A r i z o n a ' s C os t a nd V i s i b ili t y S u m m a ry

C o n t ro l O p ti on E m i s s i o n

R at e

( l b / MM B tu ) E m i s s i on s

R e m o v e d

( t o n s / y r ) A n nu alize d

C o s t

($ / y ea r ) C o s t

- e f

f ect i v e n e ss ($ /t o n ) Vi s i b ili t y I m pro v e m e nt a

(d eci v i e w s ) C o s t p e r T o tal

Deci v i e w

I m pro v e m e n t

($ / d v ) A v e r a g e I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m

pr e v i o u s ) T o tal

( f r o m

b a s eli n e ) I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m

pr e v i o u s )

Ap a che Uni t 2

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Ap a che Uni t 3

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a A t t h e C l a ss I a r ea e x h i b it i n g t h e g r eate s t b a s el i n e v i s i b ili t y i m p act

, C h i r ica h u a W il d e r n e s s A r e aAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 20 o f 8 0 R e g a r d i n g v i s i b ili t y im p a c t s, AD E Q r e li e d on v i s i b ili t y m od e li n g sub mitt e d b y A E PC O

t o e v a l u a t e t h e v i s i b ili t y i m p r ov e m e n t a tt r i bu t a b l e t o eac h o f t h e NO

x c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s t h a t it

c ons i d ere d. Th i s v i s i b ilit y m od e li n g w a s p erf o r m e d us i n g t h r ee y e ar s o f m e t e o r o l o g i ca l d a t a

( 2001 t o 2003 )

, a nd w a s g e n era l l y p e rf o r m e d i n a cc o r d a n ce w it h t h e W R A P m od e li n g p r o t o c o l

. Th e a v e r a g e o f t h e t h r e e 98 t h p erce n til e s f r o m t h e m od e l e d y e ar s 2001 t o 2 003 w a s us e d a s t h e

v i s i b ili t y m e t r i c f

o r e a c h e mi ss i on s ce n ar i o a nd C l a ss I a r ea

. F o r a s s e ss i n g t h e d e g r e e o f v i s i b ili t y

im p r ov e m e n t

, AD E Q c o ns i d ere d on l y t h e v i s i b ili t y b e n ef it s a t t h e a rea w it h t h e h i g h e s t b a s e c a s e

( p re

- c on t r o l ) im p ac t: C h i r i ca hu a N a ti on a l Monu m e n t a nd C h i r i ca hu a W il d er n e ss A r ea ( t w o

n ear b y Cl a ss I ar e a s s er

v e d b y o n e a i r m on it o r)

. F o r eac h c on t r o l

, AD E Q li s t e d v i s i b ili t y

im p r ov e m e n t i n d ec i v i e w s, a nd c os t i n milli ons o f do ll ar s p er d e c i v i e w im p r ov e m e n t. 28 R e su lt s

are c o m p ara

b l e f o r bo t h un it s, w it h U n it 2 sho w i ng so m e w h a t h i g h er v i s i b ili t y b e n ef

it s a nd

so m e w h a t l o w er c os t p er im p r ov e m e n t t h a n U n it 3. U n it 2 v i s i b il i t y im p r o v e m e n t s ra n g e fr o m

0.27 dv f o r L N B t o 0.68 dv f

o r SCR

, w h il e t h e c os t s p er d ec i v i e w ra n g e f

r o m $2 milli on f

o r

L N B t o ov e r

$9 milli on f

o r SCR

. AD E Q c on c l ud e d t h a t L N B s w it h t h e e x i s ti n g O F A s y s t e m s

re p re s e n t B A R T f

o r U n i t s 2 a nd 3, t hou g h no e x p l i c it rea son i n g i s p r ov i d e d f o r t h e s e l e c ti on.

I n m a k i n g t h i s d e t e r

mi n a ti on, AD E Q d i d no t p r ov i d e a d e qu a t e i n f o r m a ti o n r e g ar d i n g it s

ra ti on a l e o r w e i g h i n g o f t h e f i v e f ac t o r s. A D E Q s t a t e d on l y t h a t “( A )f t er r e v i e w i n g t h e

c o m p a n y ’ s B A R T a n a l y s i s, a nd b a s e d upon t h e i n f o r m a ti on a bov e

, AD E Q h a s d e t er

mi n e d t h a t

, f o r U n it s 2 a nd 3 B A R T f

o r NO

x i s n e w L

N B s a n d t h e e x i s ti n g O F A s y s t e m w it h a NO

x

e mi ss i ons lim i t o f

0.31 l b / MM B t u...” 29

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u a t i on

W e d i s a g r ee w it h s e v e ra l a sp ec t s o f t h e NO

x B A R T a n a l y s i s f o r A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd 3.

Th e c on t r o l c os t c a l c u l a t i ons i n c l ud e d li n e it e m c os t s no t a ll o w e d b y t h e E P A C on t r o l C os t

M a nu a l , su c h a s o w n er’ s c os t s, su rc h a r g e

, a nd A F UD C

. I n c l us i on o f t h e s e li n e it e m s h a s t h e

eff e c t o f i n f l a ti n g t h e t o t a l c os t o f c o m p li a n ce a nd t h e c os t p er t on o f po ll u t a n t re du c e d.

R e g a r d i n g v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

, a s sho w n i n T a b l e 8, AD E Q c ho s e L N B a s B A R T,

w h i c h p r ov i d e s t h e l o w e s t v i s i b il i t y b e n e f it o f a n y o f t h e c on t r o l s m od e l e d. B y c on t r a s t

, SCR

w ou l d p r ov i d e a n im p r o v e m e n t o f m o re t h a n 0.5 d v a t a s i n g l e Cl a ss I Ar ea

, a nd a subs t a n ti a l

i n cre m e n t a l b e n ef

it re l a ti v e t o t h e n e x t m o re s t r i n g e n t c on t r o l

, R O F A

- R o t a mi x . M u lti p l e Cl a ss I

area s h a v e c o m p ara

b l e b e n ef it s. Th e v i s i b ili t y

b e n ef it s are l ar g er t h a n t hos e li s t e d, i f bo t h U n it s 2

a nd 3 are c ons i d e r e d t og e t h er

. ( S ee T a b l e s 20 a nd 21 b e l o w f

o r E P A’ s v i s i b ili t y r e su lt s. ) Th e

SCR c os t p er

d ec i v i e w o f im p r ov e m e n t i s l o w er t h a n t hos e f o r C ho ll a a nd C o r on a do, a s

i nd i ca t e d b e l o w i n t h e i r r e sp ec ti v e s e c ti ons.

AD E Q p r ov i d e s littl e e x p li c it rea son i n g a bou t t h e v i s i b ili t y

b a s i s f o r t h e B A R T s e l ec ti on.

F o r e x a m p l e

, t h e r e i s no w e i g h i n g o f v i s i b ili t y b e n ef

it s a nd v i s i b ili t y c os t

- eff

e c ti v e n e ss f

o r t h e

v ar i ous ca nd i d a t e c on t r o l s a nd t h e v ar i ous Cl a ss I area s. T h e m od e li n g re s u lt s sho w t h a t c on t r o l s

m o re s t r i ng e n t t h a n L

N B a pp ear t o b e n ee d e d t o g i v e subs t a n ti a l v i s i b ili t y b e n ef it s. V i s i b ili t y

im p ac t s a t e i g h t n ear

b y C l a ss I ar e a s w e re no t c on s i d ere d, a nd t h e v i s i b ili t y b e n ef it s o f

s im u lt a n e ous c on t r o l s on bo t h un it s w ere no t c on s i d ere d. F o r t h e s e rea sons

, E P A b e li e v e s t h a t

28 A r iz o n a S I P s u

b m itt a l

, " A

pp e n d i x D: A r iz o n a B A R T

– S u pp l e m e n t a l I n f

o r m ati o n "

, p

. 65

. 29 D o c k et I t e m B

- 01

, A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, P a g e 65

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 21 o f 8 0 AD E Q g a v e i nsu ff

i c i e n t c ons i d era ti on t o t h e v i s i b ili t y b e n ef it s o f t h e v ar i o us NO

x c on t r o l

op ti ons a v a il a

b l e a t A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd 3

.

I n su mm a r y

, w e f

i nd t h a t AD E Q h a s no t p r ov i d e d a n a d e q u a t e j us ti f i ca ti on f o r a dop ti n g

LN B w it h O F A a s t h e “ b e s t ” l e v e l o f c on t r o l. 30 A lt hou g h A D E Q h a s d e v e l o p e d i n f o r m a ti on

r e g ar d i n g eac h o f t h e f

i v e fac t o r s, t h ere are p r ob l e m s i n bo t h it s c os t a nd v i s i b ili t y a n a l y s e s a s

d e s cr i b e d a

bov e . Mo r e o v er

, AD E Q ’ s B A R T a n a l y s i s do e s no t e x p l a i n ho w it w e i g h e d t h e s e

fac t o r s. F o r e x a m p l e

, A D E Q d i d no t i nd i ca t e w h e t h er o r no t it c ons i d e r e d a n y c os t t h r e sho l ds t o

b e rea so n a

b l e o r e x p e ns i v e i n a n a l y z i n g t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce f o r t h e v ar i ous c on t r o l op ti ons.

W e no t e t h a t AD E Q h a s m a d e s imil ar NO

x B A R T d e t er mi n a ti ons o f L

N B w it h O F A a t o t h e r

fac iliti e s, su c h a s C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t

. A lt hou g h A D E Q’ s B A R T d e t er mi n a t i ons f

o r t h e s e o t h er

fac iliti e s im p li e d t h a t c os t o f c o m p li a n ce w a s a n i m po r t a n t c ons i d era ti on, i t do e s no t p r ov i d e a

ra ti on a l e f

o r t h i s s e l e c ti on o f NO

x B A R T. 31 Thus, w e a r e p r opos i n g t o d i s a pp r ov e AD E Q ’ s

B A R T d e t e r

mi n a ti on f

o r NO

x a t A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd 3, s i n ce it do e s no t c o m p l y w it h 40 C F R

51.308 (e)( 1 )( ii )( A )

.

b) B A RT for PM

10

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

Th e e x i s ti n g PM 10 c on t r o l s on A p ac h e U n it s 2 a n d 3 are ho t

- s i d e E l ec t r os t a t i c

P rec i p it a t o r s ( E SP s ). 32 A E PC O a nd AD E Q c ons i d e re d t h r e e po t e n ti a l re t r o f it c on t r o l op ti ons f

o r

PM 10 :

· P erf o r m a n c e u p g r a d e s t o e x i s ti n g ho t

- s i d e E SP

,

· R e p l ace m e n t o f c u r

r e n t E SP w it h a fa

b r i c f ilt er

, a nd

· I ns t a ll a ti on o f a

po li sh i n g f

a b r i c f ilt e r af t e r E SP

.

AD E Q f ound t h a t a ll o f t h e s e op ti ons are t e c hn i c a l l y f e a s i b l e a nd e s tim a t e d t h e i r a sso c i a t e d

e mi ss i on ra t e s a s sho w n i n T a b l e 9.

T a b l e 9

- A p a c h e U n i t s 2 a nd 3 : A r i z o n a ' s C o n tr o l s a nd E m i ss i o n R a te s f o r P M 10

C on t r o l T ec hno l o g y E x p ec t e d PM 10 E mi ss i o n R a t e

E SP U p g ra d e s 0.03 l b / MM B t u

F u ll S i z e F a

b r i c F ilt er 0.015 l b / MM B t u

P o li sh i n g F a

b r i c F ilt e r 0.015 l b / MM B tu

AD E Q f ound t h a t a fa

b r i c f ilt er

, w h e t h er i n a dd iti on t o o r a s re p l a ce m e n t f o r t h e E SP

, w ou l d

re qu i re a dd iti on a l e n e r g y , bu t d i d no t i d e n ti f y a n y non -a i r e nv i r on m e n t a l im p ac t s fr o m a n y o f t h e

30 See B A R T G u i d el i n e s

, § I V .E. 2

. 31 W e d o n o te

, h o w e v e r, t h at A E P C O do e s pro v i d e s o m e a dd iti o n al a n a l y s i s o n t h i s po s iti on i n t h e A p a c h e B A R T

a n a l y s e s it s u

b m itte d t o A D E Q

. A s i d e f r o m s tat i ng t h at it

r e v i e w e d A E P C O ’ s a n a l y s i s

, AD E Q d i d n o t s p eci f ical l y

r e f e r e n ce or i n c l u d e a n y a s p ect s o f A E P C O ’ s a n a l y s i s i n t h e R H S I P

. A s a r e s u lt

, w e a r e n o t a s s u m i n g t h a t A D E Q

n ece s s a r i l y a g r ee s w i t h A E P C O ’ s r ati o n ale

, a n d h a v e t h e r e for e n o t pro v i d e d a n e v al u ati on o f it

. 32 See A pp e n d i x D

, p a g e s 65

- 69 f or A D E Q ’ s B A R T A n a l y s i s f or PM 10 at A

p ac h e U n i t s 2 a nd 3

. See A E P C O

A p a c h e U n it 2 B A R T A n a l y s i s

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 22 o f 8 0 t h ree op ti ons. Th e c os t o f c o m p li a n ce a nd d e g r e e o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t f o r e a c h o f t h e s e

op ti ons, a s a n a l y z e d b y AD E Q

, a r e su mm ar i z e d i n T a b l e 10 a nd T a

b l e 11

.

T a b l e 10

- A p a c h e U n i t 2 : A r i z o n a ' s C o n tr o l C os t o f V i s i b i li t y R e du ct i o n f o r P M 10

C on t r o l D ec i v i e w

R e du c ti on To t a l A nnu a li z e d

C os t

( M illi on $ ) C os t p er D ec i v i e w

R e du ce d

( M illi on $ / dv ) A v er a g e C os t

( $ /t on )

E SP

U pg ra d e s U nkno w n U nkno w n U nkno w n U nkno w n

P o li sh i n g

F a b r i c F ilt er 0.085 $2.217 $26.09 $9,121

F u ll S i z e

F a b r i c F ilt er 0.085 $2.888 $33.98 $11,880

T a b l e 11

- A p a c h e U n i t 3 : A r i z o n a ' s C o n tr o l C os t o f V i s i b i li t y R e du ct i o n f o r P M 10

C on t r o l D ec i v i e w

R e du c ti on To t a l A nnu a li z e d

C os t

( M illi on $ ) C os t p er D ec i v i e w

R e du ce d

( M illi on $ / dv ) A v er a g e C os t

( $ /t on )

E SP

U pg ra d e s U nkno w n U nkno w n U nkno w n U nkno w n

P o li sh i n g

F a b r i c F ilt er 0.094 $2.192 $23.32 $9,471

F u ll S i z e

F a b r i c F ilt er 0.094 $2.869 $30.52 $12,390

B a s e d on it s a n a l y s i s o f t h e f i v e B A R T f

a c t o r s, a s su mm ar i z e d a

bov e

, AD E Q f

ound

B A R T f o r PM 10 i s up g r a d e s t o t h e e x i s ti n g E SP a nd a PM 10 e m i ss i ons l i m i t o f 0.03 l b / MM B t u

f o r U n it s 2 a nd 3. I n p a r ti c u l ar

, AD E Q r e fe r re d t o i ns t a ll a ti on o f a f l u e g a s c ond iti on i n g s y s t e m

, im p r ov e m e n t s t o t h e s cr

u bb er b y p a ss d a m p er s y s t e m

, a nd im p l e m e n t a ti on o f p r o g ra mmi n g

op timi z a ti on m ea su re s f

o r E SP a u t o m a ti c vo lt a g e c on t r o l s a s po t e n ti a l upg r a d e s. AD E Q a l so

no t e d t h a t “ PM 10 e mi s s i o ns w ill b e m ea su re d b y c ondu c ti n g E P A M e t hod 201 / 202 t e s t s. ”

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u a t i on

A s no t e d a

bov e

, A E PC O ’ s a nd AD E Q ’ s c on t r o l c os t ca l c u l a ti ons i n c l ud e c os t s t h a t are

d i s a ll o w e d b y

E P A ’ s C on t r o l C os t M a nu a l , su c h a s o w n e r ’ s c os t s a nd A F UD C. 33 I n a dd iti on,

A E PC O’ s a nd AD E Q ’ s a n a l y s e s do no t d e m ons t r a t e t h a t a ll po t e n ti a l up g ra d e s t o t h e e x i s ti n g

E SP w ere f

u l l y e v a l u a t e d

. N on e t h e l e ss, b a s e d on t h e s m a ll v i s i b ili t y im p r o v e m e n t a sso c i a t e d

w it h PM 1 0 re du c ti ons fr o m t h e s e un it s (e

. g

., l e ss t h a n 0.1 dv im p r ov e m e n t fr o m t h e m os t

s t r i n g e n t t e c hno l o g y )

, w e c on c l ud e t h a t a dd iti on a l a n a l y s e s o f c o n t r o l op ti ons w ou l d no t re su lt i n

a d i ffe r e n t B A R T d e t er

m i n a ti on. A s a re su lt

, w e p r opos e t o a pp r o v e AD E Q ’ s PM 10 B A R T

d e t er mi n a ti on a t A p a c h e U n it s 2 a nd 3.

33 See A E P C O B A R T A n a l y s i s T ec hn ical M e m or a n d u m d ate d J u l y 8

, 200 9

, p a g e 12

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 23 o f 8 0 H o w e v e r

, w e are s ee k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er t e s t m e t hods o t h er t h a n E P A M e t hod 201

a nd 202 34 (c hos e n b y AD E Q) shou l d b e a ll o w e d o r re qu i re d f o r e s t a b li sh i n g c o m p li a n ce w it h t h e

PM 10 li m it s t h a t w e are a pp r ov i n g

. I n p arti c u l a r

, a s e x p l a i n e d b e l o w , us e o f SCR 35 a t t h e s e un it s

i s e x p ec t e d t o re su lt i n i n crea s e d c on d e ns a b l e p a r t i c u l a t e m a tt er i n t h e f o r m o f su l f u r i c a c i d mi s t

(H 2 SO 4 )

. I n e f

fec t

, t h e e mi ss i on li m it w ou l d b e m o re s t r i ng e n t t h a n i n t e nd e d b y A D E Q a nd

w ou l d li k e l y

no t b e a c h i e v a

b l e i n p rac ti c e

. I n o r d e r t o a vo i d t h i s re su lt

, w h il e s till a ssu r i n g p r op e r

op era ti on o f t h e p arti c u l a t e c on t r o l d e v i ce s, w e a r e re qu e s ti n g on c o mm e n t on w h e t h er t o a ll o w

c o m p li a n ce w it h t h e PM 10 li m it t o b e d e m ons t ra t e d us i n g t e s t m e t hods t h a t do no t ca p t u re

c ond e ns a b l e p ar ti c u l a t e m a tt er , n a m e l y

E P A M e t hods 1 t h r ou g h 4 a nd M e t hod 5 o r M e t hod 5 e. 36

M e t hod 201 i s v e r y r a re l y us e d f o r t e s ti n g . Th e t y

p i ca l m e t hod us e d f

o r f ilt era b l e PM 10 i s

M e t hod 201 A

, “c ons t a n t s a m p li n g ra t e p r o c e du re

, ” w h i c h i s s imil ar t o M e t hod 201, bu t i s m u c h

m o re p r a c ti ca l t o p erf

o r m on a s t ac k

.

c) B A RT for SO 2

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd 3 c u r re n t l y h a v e w e t lim e s t on e s cr ubb e r s i ns t a ll e d f

o r SO 2 re m ov a l. 37

U nd er t h e B A R T G u i d e l i n e s, a s t a t e i s no t re qu i re d t o e v a l u a t e t h e r e p l a ce m e n t o f t h e c u r r e n t

SO 2 c on t r o l s i f t h e i r re m ov a l eff i c i e n c y i s ov er

5 0 p erce n t , bu t shou l d c on s i d er c os t

- e ff e c ti v e

s cr ubb er u p g ra d e s d e s i g n e d t o im p r ov e t h e s y s t e m 's ov era ll SO 2 re m ov a l ef f i c i e n c y

. R e l y i n g

upon t h e B A R T a n a l y s i s sub mitt e d b y A E PC O, 38 A D E Q f ound t h a t t h e f

o ll o w i n g po t e n ti a l

up g r a d e s t o t h e s c r

ubb er s are t e c hn i ca l l y f

e a s i b l e :

· E limi n a ti on o f b y

p a ss r e h ea t

,

· I ns t a ll a ti on o f li qu i d d i s t r i bu ti on r i n g s,

· I ns t a ll a ti on o f p erf

o ra t e d t r a y s,

· U s e o f

o r g a n i c ac i d a dd iti v e s,

· I m p r o v e d o r

u p g r a d e d s c r

ubb er a u x ili a r y s y s t e m e qu i p m e n t

, a nd

· R e d e s i g n e d sp r a y h ea d ero r no zz l e

.

AD E Q f ound t h a t a n y

u p g r a d e s li k e l y w ou l d no t i n crea s e po w e r c onsu m p ti on, bu t w ou l d

i n crea s e s cr

ub b er w a s t e d i spos a l a nd m a k e up w a t er re qu i r e m e n t s, a nd w o u l d re du ce t h e s t ac k

g a s t e m p era t u r e . Th e s e t h ree f ac t o r s are t h e n o r

m a l ou t c o m e o f t r e a ti n g m o re o f t h e e x h a us t g a s

a nd re m ov i n g m o re o f t h e SO 2 ( i n crea s e d s cr ubb e r w a s t e d i spos a l ) a nd shou l d no t b e g i v e n m u c h

w e i g h t i n s e l e c ti n g a B A R T e mi ss i on lim i t

. AD E Q a l so no t e d t h a t A E PC O h a d a l r e a d y m a d e t h e

f o ll o w i n g u

p g r a d e s t o t h e s cr

ubb e r s : e limi n a ti on o f f

l u e g a s b y

p a ss ; sp litt i n g t h e lim e s t on e f ee d

34 See 40 C F R P a r t 51 A

pp e n d i x M.

35 E P A i s propo s i ng S CR a s B A R T f or all o f t h e c o al

- f

i r e d u n i t s

. See Secti o n V II

. 36 See 40 C F R P a r t 60 A

pp e n d i x A

. 37 See A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, p a g e s 69

- 71 f or A D E Q ’ s B A R T A n a l y s i s f or SO 2 at A

p ac h e U n it s

2 a n d 3

. 38 See A E P C O A

p a c h e U n i t 2 B A R T A n a l y s i sAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 24 o f 8 0 t o t h e a bso r b er fee d t a nk a nd t o w er

su m p ; u p g ra d e o f t h e mi s t e limi n a t o r s y s t e m; i ns t a ll a ti on o f

su c ti on s cree ns a t pu m p i n t a k e s ; a u t o m a ti on o f

p u m p d ra i n v a l v e s, a nd r e p l ace m e n t o f s cr ubb e r

p ac k i n g w it h p erf

o ra t e d s t a i n l e ss s t ee l t r a y s. I n a d d iti on, A E PC O t r i e d us i ng d i b a s i c ac i d

a dd iti v e , bu t f

ound t h a t it d i d no t re su lt i n s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h er SO 2 re m o v a l

. AD E Q d i d no t

e v a l u a t e t h e c os t o r

v i s i b ili t y im p a c t s o f a n y a dd iti on a l up g r a d e s t o t h e s c r u bb er s, bu t d e t er

mi n e d

t h a t B A R T f

o r SO 2 e mi ss i ons w a s no n e w c on t r o l s a nd a n e mi ss i on limit o f 0.15 l b / MM B t u on a

30

- d a y r o lli n g a v e ra g e b a s i s.

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u a t i on

W e are p r opos i n g t o a

pp r ov e AD E Q’ s SO 2 B A R T d e t er mi n a ti on f

o r A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd

3. A lt hou g h AD E Q h a s n o t d e m ons t ra t e d t h a t it f u l l y c ons i d e r e d a ll c os t e f f ec ti v e s cr ub b er

up g r a d e s, a s rec o mm e n d e d b y t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s, AD E Q c ond u c t e d a f i v e-f a c t o r B A R T

a n a l y s i s a nd it s f

i n a l SO 2 B A R T d e t e r

mi n a ti on f

o r A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd 3 i s c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e

p re su m p ti v e B A R T limit o f 0.15 l b / MM B t u f

o r u t ili t y bo il er s. 39 W e h a v e no e v i d e n ce t h a t

a dd iti on a l a n a l y s i s w ou l d h a v e re su lt e d i n a l o w er e mi ss i on limit . Th eref o r e

, w e a r e p r opos i n g t o

a pp r ov e t h e SO 2 e mi ss i on limit o f 0.15 l b / MM Bt

u ( 30

- d a y r o lli n g a v e r a g e ) f o r A p ac h e U n it s 2

a nd 3.

H o w e v e r

, w e no t e t h a t A p ac h e ca n r ece i v e c o a l fr o m a nu m b er o f d i f f ere n t mi n e s t h a t

ca n h a v e d i ff

e r i n g su l f u r c on t e n t a nd po t e n ti a l f o r SO 2 e mi ss i ons. 40 Th eref o r e

, w e a re s e e k i n g

c o mm e n t on w h e t h er a d d iti on a l c os t -eff e c ti v e s cr u bb er u p g ra d e s a r e a v a il a b l e t h a t w ou l d

w ar r a n t a l o w er e mi ss i on limit

. W e are a l so r e qu e s ti n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h e r re qu i r i n g 90 p e rce n t

c on t r o l eff

i c i e n c y i n a dd i ti on t o t h e l b / MM B t u li m it w ou l d b e tt er a ssu re p r o p er op e r a ti on o f t h e

up g r a d e d s c r

ubb er s w h e n bu r

n i n g so m e t y

p e s o f l o w- su l f

u r w e s t er n c o a l

. I f w e r e ce i v e

i n f o r m a ti on e s t a

b li sh i n g t h a t a l o w er limit i s ac h i e v a b l e o r t h a t a c on t r o l e ff

i c i e n c y re qu i re m e n t

i s n ee d e d, t h e n w e m a y d i s a pp r ov e t h e SO 2 e mi ss i ons limit s e t b y AD E Q a nd p r o m u l g a t e a

re v i s e d limit f

o r on e o r b o t h o f t h e s e un it s.

3. C h o lla U ni ts 2, 3 a nd 4

C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t c ons i s t s o f f ou r p r im ar i l y c o a l -f

i re d e l ec t r i c i t y g e n era t i n g un it s w it h a

t o t a l p l a n t -w i d e g e n e ra ti n g c a p a c i t y o f 1,150 m e g a w a tt s. U n it 1 i s a 125 M W t a n g e n ti a l l y -f

i r e d,

d r y

- bo tt o m bo il er t h a t i s no t B A R T -e l i g i b l e

. U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4 h a v e ca p a c iti e s o f

300 M W , 300

M W a nd 425 M W

, re sp ec ti v e l y

, a nd a r e t a n g e n ti a l l y -f i r e d, d r y

- bo tt o m bo il er s t h a t a r e e a c h

B A R T -e l i g i b l e

. B a s e d o n i n f o r m a ti on p r ov i d e d b y A PS

, t h e C ho ll a un it s o p era t e on a

b l e nd o f

b it u mi nous a nd sub

- b it u

mi nous ra nk c o a l s fr o m t h e L ee R a n c h a nd E l S e gundo mi n e s. 41

a) B A RT for NO

x

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

A PS sub mitt e d a B A R T a n a l y s i s t o A D E Q i n J a nu a r y 2008. A t t h e tim e o f

sub mitt a l

, C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4 w ere e qu i pp e d w it h c l os e -c oup l e d ov e rf i re a i r ( C O F A) a s NO

x c on t r o l s.

A PS d e v e l op e d b a s e li n e NO

x e mi ss i ons b y e x a mi n i n g t h e h i g h e s t 24

- hou r a v er a g e e mi ss i ons

39 See B A R T G u i d el i n e s § I V .E. 4

. 40 See

, e

. g

. A

p a c h e U n it 2 B A R T A n a l y s i s

, T a b le 3

- 1

. 41 A c o p y o f t h e c o al c o n t r act

, i n cl u d i n g ob li g ati o n a m ou n t s a n d c o al q u ali t y

, c a n b e f ou n d i n D o c k et

I t e m B

- 09

,

“ A dd iti o n al A P S Ch o lla B A R T r e s po n s e”

, A pp e n d i x B

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 25 o f 8 0 fr o m 2001 t o 2003. 42 A PS e x a mi n e d s e v era l NO

x c o n t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s, i n c l ud i n g c o m bus ti on

c on t r o l s a nd a dd

- on pos t c o m bus ti on c on t r o l s. A su mm a r y o f t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce a nd

v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s a sso c i a t e d w it h t h e s e op ti ons i s p re s e n t e d i n T a b l e 12.

Th i s i n f o r m a ti on i s c on t a i n e d i n t h e C ho ll a B A R T a n a l y s e s f o r e a c h un it

, a nd w a s re li e d

upon b y A D E Q i n d e v e l o p i n g it s R H S I P. 43 Es tim a t e s o f c on t r o l t ec hno l og y e mi ss i on ra t e s w e r e

d e v e l op e d b a s e d on a c o m b i n a ti on o f v e ndo r quo t e s, c on t r a c t o r i n f

o r m a ti o n, a nd i n t er

n a l A PS

i n f o r m a ti on r e g a r d i n g e n v i r on m e n t a l upg ra d e s. 44 A nnu a l e mi ss i on re du c ti ons w ere ca l c u l a t e d

b a s e d upon t h e e mi ss i on ra t e e s tim a t e s c o m b i n e d w it h a nnu a l ca p ac i t y f a c t o r s a s re p o r t e d i n

C A M D d a t a fr o m 2001 t o 2006. 45 C on t r o l c os t s w ere a l so d e v e l op e d b a s e d on a c o m b i n a ti on o f

v e ndo r quo t e s a nd c on t r a c t o r i n f o r m a ti on. Th e s e c os t ca l c u l a ti ons p r ov i d e d li n e it e m su mm ar i e s

o f ca p it a l c os t s a nd a nn u a l op era ti n g c os t s, bu t d i d no t p r ov i d e f u r t h er su p po r ti n g i n f

o r m a ti on

su c h a s d e t a il e d e qu i p m e n t li s t s, v e ndo r quo t e s, o r t h e d e s i g n b a s i s f o r li n e it e m c os t s.

A s p ar t o f it s B A R T a n a l y s i s, A PS p erf o r m e d v i s i b ili t y m od e li n g i n o r d e r t o e v a l u a t e t h e

v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t a t t r i bu t a b l e t o eac h o f t h e NO

x c on t r o l t e c hno l o g i e s t h a t it c ons i d ere d.

Th i s v i s i b il i t y m o d e li n g w a s p e r f o r m e d us i n g t h r e e y e ar s o f m e t e o r o l o g i c a l d a t a ( 2001 t o 2003 )

,

a nd w a s g e n era l l y

p e rf o r m e d i n acc o r d a n c e w it h t h e W R A P p r o t o c o l

, w it h a few e x ce p ti ons. F o r

e x a m p l e

, ra t h er t h a n us i n g a c ons t a n t m on t h l y a m m on i a b ac k g r ound c o n c e n t ra ti on o f 1.0 ppb a s

sp ec i f i e d i n t h e W R A P p r o t o c o l

, A PS us e d a v ar i a b l e m on t h l y

b ac k g r ound a mm on i a

c on ce n t r a ti on t h a t v ar i e d fr o m 0.2 ppb t o 1.0 ppb.

F o r a s s e ss i n g t h e d e g r e e o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

, AD E Q c ons i d e re d on l y t h e v i s i b ili t y

b e n ef it s a t t h e a rea w it h t h e h i g h e s t b a s e c a s e ( p r e -c on t r o l ) im p ac t

, t h e P e t r i f i e d F o r e s t N a ti on a l

P ar k. F o r eac h c on t r o l

, A D E Q li s t e d v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t i n d ec i v i e w s, a nd v i s i b ili t y c os teff e c ti v e n e ss, ( A r i z on a S I P sub mitt a l

, “ A pp e nd i x D : Ar i z on a B A R T – S upp l e m e n t a l

I n f o r m a ti on ” , p.77 ) a s i n t h e c o m p ara b l e s ec ti on f

o r A p ac h e

. F o r U n it 2, im p r ov e m e n t s ra n g e

fr o m 0.19 dv f

o r L N B w i t h S O F A t o 0.29 dv f o r S CR

. C os t s p er

d ec i v i e w r a ng e fr o m $3.4

milli on f o r L N B t o a nd $ 33.5 milli on f o r SCR

. B e n ef

it s f o r U n it 3 a r e a

bo u t 20 p erce n t l o w e r

( 0.13 t o 0.23 d ec i v i e w)

, a nd f o r U n it 4 a re a

bou t 20 p erce n t h i g h e r ( 0.21 t o 0.41 d ec i v i e w)

, w it h

p erce n t d i f

fe r e n c e s i n cr e a s i n g w it h m o re s t r i n g e n t c on t r o l

. F o r U n it 3, c os t s p er d ec i v i e w ra n g e

fr o m $5 milli on f

o r L N B w it h S O F A t o $41.6 mil l i on f o r SCR (a bou t 30 p erce n t h i g h er t h a n f o r

U n it 2 )

. F o r U n it 4, c os t s ra n g e f r o m $4 milli on f

o r L N B w it h S O F A t o $3 2 .4 milli on f o r SCR

(a bou t 20 p e r ce n t h i g h er e x ce p t t h a t SCR h a s a s l i g h t l y l o w er c os t p er

d e c i v i e w)

.

AD E Q c o n c l ud e d ( i b id

, p.79 ) t h a t L N B s w it h n e w S O F A s y s t e m s re p re s e n t

B A R T f o r a ll t h ree un it s

, no ti n g t h a t f o r a ll s ce n ar i os t h e v i s i b ili t y b e n e f it s w ere l e ss t h a n 0.5 dv.

AD E Q a l so s t a t e d t h a t S CR

, t h e m os t e x p e ns i v e op ti on, p r ov i d e s on l y a b o u t 0.1 dv b e n ef

it m o re

t h a n L N B w it h S O F A

, t h e l ea s t e x p e ns i v e op ti on. Th i s s t a t e m e n t a pp e a r s t o a

pp l y on l y t o U n it s

2 a nd 3 ; t h e c o m p a r a

b l e b e n ef it f o r U n it 4 i s 0.2 d v.

42 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 06 t h roug h

- 08

, A P S Ch o lla B A R T A n a l y s e s

, p a g e 2

- 2

. 43 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 06 t h roug h

- 08

, A P S Ch o lla B A R T A n a l y s e s

. T h i s i n f o r m ati o n i s a l s o s um m a r ize d i n D o c k et

I t e m B

- 01

, A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, T a b l e s 11

. 3 t h ro ugh 11

. 5

. 44 A s d e s c r i b e d i n T a b le 3

- 2

, D o c k et I t e m s B

- 06 t h ro u g h

- 08

, A P S C h o lla B A R T A n a l y s e s

. 45 A s l i s te d i n T a b le 2

- 1

, D o c k et I t e m s B

- 06 t h roug h

- 08

. A nn u al cap aci t y f act or s u s e d f

or eac h u n it a r e 91 p e r ce n t

( Ch o lla 2)

, 86p e r ce n t

( Ch o lla 3)

, a n d 9 3 p e r ce n t ( Ch o lla 4)

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 26 o f 8 0 T ab l e 12

- C ho l l a U n it s 2, 3, and 4 : A r i z ona ' s C o st a nd V i s i b i l i t y Su m m a r y f o r N O x

C on t r o l O p ti on E m i ss i on

R a t e

(l b / MM B tu ) E m i ss i on s

R e m o v e d

(t on s / y r) A nnu a li ze d

C o s t

( $ / y ea r ) C o s t- e f

f ec t i v e n es s

( $ /t o n ) V i s i b ilit y I m p r o v e me nt a

( d ec i v i e w s ) C o s t p e r t o t a l

d ec i v i e w

i m p r o v e me n t

( $ / d v ) A v e r a g e I n c r eme n t a l

( f r o m p r e v i ou s ) T o t a l ( f r o m

b ase li n e ) I n c r eme n t a l

( f r o m

p r e v i ou s )

C h o l l a 2

CO F A ( b ase li n e ) 0

. 50

-- -- -- -- -- -- --

L NB + S O F A 0

. 22 3

, 3 1 4 $6 3 5

, 0 0 0 $1 92

-- 0

. 1 8 7

-- $3

, 4 0 0

, 0 0 0

S NCR + L

NB +

S O F A 0

. 17 3

, 9 0 0 $2

, 1 7 5

, 0 0 0 $5 58 $2

, 6 28 0

. 2 1 8 0

. 0 3 1 $9

, 9 8 0

, 0 0 0

RO F A 0

. 16 4

, 0 1 7 $2

, 2 9 7

, 0 0 0 $5 72 $1

, 0 43 0

. 2 3 2 0

. 0 1 4 $9

, 9 0 0

, 0 0 0

RO F A w / R o t a m i x 0

. 12 4

, 4 8 5 $3

, 3 8 4

, 0 0 0 $7 55 $2

, 3 23 0

. 2 6 1 0

. 0 2 9 $1 2

, 9 70

, 0 0 0

S CR + L NB +

S O F A 0

. 07 5

, 0 7 1 $9

, 6 2 5

, 0 0 0 $1

, 8 98 $1 0

, 6 5 0 0

. 2 8 7 0

. 0 2 6 $3 3

, 5 40

, 0 0 0

C h o l l a 3

CO F A ( b ase li n e ) 0

. 41

-- -- -- -- -- -- --

L NB + S O F A 0

. 22 2

, 0 9 6 $6 3 5

, 0 0 0 $3 03

-- 0

. 13

-- $5

, 0 4 0

, 0 0 0

S NCR + L

NB +

S O F A 0

. 17 2

, 6 4 8 $2

, 1 5 7

, 0 0 0 $8 15 $2

, 7 57 0

. 16 0

. 0 3 8 $1 3

, 1 50

, 0 0 0

RO F A 0

. 16 2

, 7 5 8 $2

, 2 4 3

, 0 0 0 $8 13 $7 82 0

. 17 0

. 0 0 5 $1 3

, 2 70

, 0 0 0

RO F A w / R o t a m i x 0

. 12 3

, 2 0 0 $3

, 3 0 8

, 0 0 0 $1

, 0 34 $2

, 4 10 0

. 20 0

. 0 2 9 $1 6

, 7 10

, 0 0 0

S CR + L NB +

S O F A 0

. 07 3

, 7 5 1 $9

, 5 6 9

, 0 0 0 $2

, 5 51 $1 1

, 3 6 3 0

. 23 0

. 0 3 2 $4 1

, 6 10

, 0 0 0

C h o l l a 4

CO F A ( b ase li n e ) 0

. 42

-- -- -- -- -- --

L NB + S O F A 0

. 22 3

, 3 9 0 $8 2 0

, 0 0 0 $2 42

-- 0

. 21

-- $3

, 9 6 0

, 0 0 0

S NCR + L

NB +

S O F A 0

. 17 4

, 2 5 9 $2

, 8 5 2

, 0 0 0 $6 70 $2

, 3 38 0

. 27 0

. 0 5 8 $1 0

, 7 60

, 0 0 0

RO F A 0

. 16 4

, 4 3 3 $3

, 1 7 9

, 0 0 0 $7 17 $1

, 8 79 0

. 28 0

. 0 1 6 $1 1

, 3 10

, 0 0 0

RO F A w / R o t a m i x 0

. 12 5

, 1 2 9 $4

, 5 3 7

, 0 0 0 $8 85 $1

, 9 51 0

. 34 0

. 0 5 5 $1 3

, 5 00

, 0 0 0

S CR + L NB +

S O F A 0

. 07 5

, 9 9 8 $1 3

, 2 30

, 0 0 0 $2

, 2 06 $1 0

, 0 0 3 0

. 41 0

. 0 7 2 $3 2

, 4 30

, 0 0 0

a A t t h e Cl ass I a r ea e x h i b it i n g t h e g r ea t es t b ase li n e v i s i b ilit y i m p a c t

, P e tri f

i e d F o r es t N a ti o n a l P a r kAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 27 o f 8 0 I n e v a l u a ti n g A PS ’ B A R T a n a l y s i s, AD E Q r e qu e s t e d suppo r ti n g i n f o r m a ti on e x p l a i n i n g

cer t a i n a ssu m p ti ons us e d i n t h e ec ono mi c a n a l y s i s , b a s e li n e e mi ss i ons, a nd c on t r o l t ec hno l og y

op ti ons. B a s e d on t h i s a d d iti on a l i n f o r m a ti on a s w e ll a s A PS ’ o r i g i n a l B A R T a n a l y s i s, AD E Q

d e t er mi n e d t h a t L

N B w i t h S O F A i s B A R T f o r NO

x a t C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4. I n m a k i n g t h i s

d e t er mi n a ti on, AD E Q r e l i e d a lm os t e x c l us i v e l y o n t h e d e g r e e o f

v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

. AD E Q

c it e d s m a ll v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t on a p e r- un it b a s i s, s t a ti n g t h a t “ t h e c h a n g e i n d ec i v i e w s

b e t w ee n t h e l ea s t e x p e ns i v e a nd m os t e x p e ns i v e NO

x c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s [

... ] i s on l y 0.104

d ec i v i e w s.” 46 AD E Q’ s d e t er mi n a ti on sugg e s t s t h a t t o t a l ca p it a l c os t s m a y h a v e b ee n a

c ons i d era ti on, a lt ho u g h it i s no t c l ear t o w h a t e x t e n t t h i s m a y h a v e i n f o r m e d AD E Q’ s d e c i s i on

m a k i n g

, w it h t h e R H S I P s im p l y s t a ti n g

, “ [ t ] h e c o rre spond i n g c a p it a l c os t s are $5.4 milli on f o r

L N B / S O F A a nd $82.8 m illi on f o r SCR w it h L

N B / S O F A .” 47

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u a t i on

W e d i s a g r ee w it h s e v e ra l a sp ec t s o f t h e a n a l y s e s p erf o r m e d f o r C ho ll a U n i t s 2 3 a nd 4.

R e g a r d i n g t h e c on t r o l c o s t ca l c u l a ti ons, w e no t e t h a t cert a i n li n e it e m c os t s no t a ll o w e d b y t h e

E P A C on t r o l C os t M a n u a l w ere i n c l ud e d, su c h a s o w n er’ s c os t s, su rc h a r g e

, a nd A F U D C

. I n c l us i on o f t h e s e li n e it e m s h a s t h e ef f ec t o f i n f l a t i n g t h e t o t a l c os t o f c o m p li a n ce a nd t h e c os t

p er t on o f po ll u t a n t re du c e d. A s a r e su lt

, w e a r e p r opos i n g t o f i nd t h a t AD E Q d i d no t f

o ll o w t h e

re qu i re m e n t s o f s ec ti on 5 1.308 (e)( 1 )( ii )( A ) b y no t p r op er l y c ons i d e r i n g t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce

f o r e a c h c on t r o l op ti on.

R e g a r d i n g AD E Q ’ s a n a l y s i s o f v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s

, t h e m od e li n g p r o ce du r e s re li e d on b y

AD E Q f o r a ss e ss i n g t h e v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s fr o m C ho ll a w ere g e n e r a l l y i n a cc o r d w it h E P A

g u i d a n ce , bu t t h e us e o f t h e m od e li n g r e su lt s i n e v a l u a ti n g t h e B A R T v i s i b ili t y fac t o r w a s

p r ob l e m a ti c

. A s w a s t h e ca s e f o r A p a c h e

, A D E Q a

pp ear s t o h a v e c ons i d er e d b e n ef it s f r o m

c on t r o l s on on l y

on e e mitti n g un it a t a tim e . E P A b e li e v e s t h a t AD E Q ' s u s e o f t h i s p r o ce du r e

subs t a n ti a l l y

und e r e s tim a t e s t h e d e g r e e o f v i s i b ilit y im p r ov e m e n t fr o m c o n t r o l s. AD E Q a l so

ov er l ook e d c o m p a ra

b l e b e n ef it s a t s e v e n Cl a ss I a r ea s b e s i d e s P e t r i f i e d F o r e s t

, t h ere b y

und er s t a ti n g t h e f

u ll v i s i b ili t y b e n ef

it s o f t h e ca n d i d a t e c on t r o l s. U s i n g t h e d efa u lt 1 ppb

a mm on i a b ac k g r ound c o n ce n t ra ti on w ou l d a l so h a v e i n c r ea s e d e s tim a t e d im p ac t s a nd c on t r o l

b e n ef it s. F o r t h e s e r ea so n s, E P A p r opos e s t o f i nd t h a t t h e AD E Q s e l ec ti on o f L N B f o r C ho ll a

und er t h e d e g ree o f

v i s i b ili t y im p r o v e m e n t B A R T fac t o r i s no t a d e q u a t e l y s uppo r t e d, a nd t h a t

m o re s t r i ng e n t c on t r o l m a y b e w a rra n t e d

.

b) B A RT for PM

10

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

A s o f M a y 2009, C ho ll a U n it s 3 a nd 4 w ere bo t h e qu i pp e d w it h fa b r i c f ilt e r s f o r PM 10

c on t r o l

, w h il e C ho ll a U n it 2 w a s e qu i pp e d w it h a m ec h a n i c a l dus t c o ll ec t o r a nd a v e n t u r i

s cr ubb er. 48 I n it s B A R T a n a l y s i s, AD E Q no t e d t h a t t h e fac ili t y h a d c o mmitt e d t o i ns t a ll a fa b r i c

f ilt er a t U n it 2 b y

2015. B e c a

us e f a b r i c f ilt er s a r e t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t c on t r o l a v a il a b l e f o r

re du c i n g PM 10 e mi s s i ons

, AD E Q d i d no t c ondu c t a f u ll B A R T a n a l y s i s, bu t c on c l ud e d t h a t f a b r i c

f ilt er s a nd a n e mi ss i on limit o f 0.015 l b / MM B t u are B A R T f o r c on t r o l o f PM 10 a t U n i t s 2, 3 a nd

46 D o c k et I t e m B

- 01

, A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, P a g e 79

. 47 I d

. 48 See A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, p a g e s 79

- 81 f or A D E Q ’ s B A R T A n a l y s i s f or PM 1 0 at Ch o lla U n i t s

2

, 3 a n d 4

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 28 o f 8 0 4. AD E Q a l so no t e d t h a t “ PM 10 e m i ss i ons w ill b e m ea su re d b y c ondu c ti n g E P A M e t hod 201 / 202

t e s t s. ”

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u a t i on

G i v e n t h a t AD E Q h a s c h os e n t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y a v a il a b l e a nd s e t a n

e mi ss i ons lim i t c ons i s t e n t w it h o t h er un it s e m p l o y i n g t h i s t ec hno l og y

, w e a re p r opos i n g t o

a pp r ov e t h i s B A R T d e t e r mi n a ti on o f a n e mi ss i on limit o f 0.015 l b / MM B t u f

o r PM 10 a t C ho l l a

U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4.

c) B A RT f or SO 2

C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4 are a ll e qu i pp e d w it h w e t lim e s cr ubb er s f o r SO 2 c on t r o l

. 49

S p ec i f i ca l l y

, U n it 2 i s e q u i pp e d w it h f ou r v e n t u r i f l ood e d d i s c s cr

ub b er s / a b so r b er w it h lim e

re a g e n t

, ca

p a b l e o f a c h i e v i n g 0.14 l b / MM B t u t o 0 .25 l b / MM B t u o f SO 2

. U n it s 3 a nd 4 w ere

re t r o f itt e d i n 2009 a nd 2 0 08, re sp ec ti v e l y

, w it h s cr ubb er s ca p a b l e o f ac h i e v i n g 0.15 l b / MM B t u

o f SO 2.

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

B a s e d on a limit e d f

i v e- f ac t o r a n a l y s i s, A D E Q d e t er mi n e d B A R T f

o r SO 2 a t C ho ll a U n it

2 i s up g ra d e s t o t h e e x i s t i n g s c r ubb er t h a t w ou l d a c h i e v e a limit o f 0.15 l b / MM B t u. B e ca

u s e t h e

B A R T a n a l y s i s sub mitt e d b y A PS w a s c ond u c t e d p r i o r t o i ns t a ll a ti on o f t h e s cr ubb e r s on U n it s 3

a nd 4, it i n c l ud e d a n a n a l y s i s o f o t h er po t e n ti a l c o n t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s, n a m e l y

, d r y f l u e g a s

d e su l f u r i z a ti on a nd d r y

sod i u m so r

b e n t i n j ec ti on. H o w e v e r

, A PS h a d a l r ea d y i ns t a ll e d t h e w e t

lim e s cr ubb er s b y t h e ti m e AD E Q c ondu c t e d it s o w n B A R T a n a l y s i s. T h e r ef o re

, AD E Q d i d no t

c ons i d er SO 2 c on t r o l s o t h er t h a n w e t lim e s c r ub b er s f o r U n it s 3 a nd 4, bu t d e t er mi n e d B A R T a s

us e o f t h e s e s c r

ubb er s w it h a n a sso c i a t e d e mi ss i on limit o f 0.15 l b / MM B t u o f SO 2

.

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u a t i on

W e are p r opos i n g t o a

pp r ov e AD E Q’ s B A R T d e t e r mi n a ti on f

o r SO 2 a t C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3

a nd 4. A lt hou g h A D E Q d i d no t f u l l y c ons i d er a ll c os t -ef

f ec ti v e s c r ubb er u p g r a d e s a s

rec o mm e nd e d b y t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s, w e h a v e no b a s i s f o r c on c l ud i n g t h a t a dd iti on a l a n a l y s i s

w ou l d h a v e re su lt e d i n a l o w er e mi ss i on limit . T h eref o re

, w e a r e p r opos i n g t o a pp r ov e t h e SO 2

e mi ss i on limit o f

0.15 l b / MM B t u ( 30

- d a y r o lli n g a v er a g e ) f o r C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4. H o w e v er

,

w e a r e s ee k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er a d d iti on a l c os t -eff e c ti v e s cr ub b er u p g ra d e s a re a v a il a

b l e

t h a t w ou l d w ar

r a n t a l o w er e mi ss i on limit

. I f w e r ece i v e c o mm e n t s e s t a b li sh i n g t h a t a l o w er limit

i s ac h i e v a b l e

, t h e n w e m a y

d i s a p p r ov e t h e SO 2 e mi ss i ons l i mit s e t b y AD E Q a nd p r o m u l g a t e a

re v i s e d limit f

o r on e o r m o re o f t h e s e un it s.

4. C oro n a do U ni ts 1 a nd 2

C o r on a do G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on c ons i s t s o f t w o E GU s w it h a t o t a l p l a n t -w i d e g e n era ti n g

ca p a c i t y o f o v er 800 M W

. U n it s 1 a nd 2 are bo t h d r y

- bo tt o m

, t u r bo -f i re d bo il er s, eac h w it h a

g r oss un it ou t

pu t o f 411 M W

. B o t h un it s are B A R T -e li g i b l e a nd a r e c o a l

- f i re d bo il er s op e ra ti n g

on p r im ar i l y P o w d e r Ri v er B a s i n sub

- b it u mi nous c o a l

.

49 See A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, pp

. 8 1

- 83

, f

or A D E Q ’ s B A R T A n a l y s i s f o r SO 2 at C h o lla U n i t s 2

, 3 a n d 4

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 29 o f 8 0 SRP e n t ere d i n t o a c ons e n t d ecr e e w it h E P A i n 2008. 50 Th i s c ons e n t d ec r ee r e so l v e d

a ll e g e d v i o l a ti ons o f t h e C AA w h i c h o cc u rre d a t U n it s 1 a nd 2 o f t h e C o r o n a do G e n e ra ti n g

S t a ti on, ar i s i n g fr o m t h e c ons t r u c ti on o f m od i f

i ca t i ons w it hou t ob t a i n i n g a pp r op r i a t e p e r

mit s

und er t h e P re v e n ti on o f S i g n i f i ca n t D e t er i o r a ti on ( PS D) p r ov i s i ons o f t h e C AA

, a nd w it hou t

i ns t a lli n g a nd a

pp l y i n g b e s t a v a il a

b l e c on t r o l t ec h no l o g y . Th e c ons e n t d e c r ee re so l v e d t h e c l a im s

a ll e g e d b y

E P A i n e x c h a n g e f

o r SRP ’ s p a y

m e n t o f a c i v il p e n a l t y a nd SRP ’ s c o mmitm e n t t o

p erf o r m i n j un c ti v e r e li ef i n c l ud i n g : 1 ) i ns t a ll a ti on o f po ll u ti on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y t o c on t r o l

e mi ss i ons o f NO

x , SO 2 , a nd P M

-- i n c l ud i n g f l u e g a s d e su l f

u r i z a ti on d e v i c e s t o c on t r o l SO 2 on

U n it s 1 a nd 2 a t t h e C o r on a do S t a ti on a nd i ns t a ll a ti on o f SCR t o c on t r o l NO

x on on e o f t h e un it s

(U n it 2 ) ; 2 ) m ee t sp e c i f

i e d e mi ss i on ra t e s o r re m o v a l eff i c i e n c i e s f

o r NO

x , SO 2 , a nd P M ; 3 )

c o m p l y w it h a

p l a n t

- w i d e e mi ss i ons ca

p f o r NO

x ; a nd 4 ) p e r f

o r m $ 4 milli on w o r t h o f miti g a ti on

p r o j ec t s. Th e c on s e n t d e c ree i s no t a p e r mit

, a nd c o m p li a n ce w it h t h e c ons e n t d ecr e e do e s no t

g u a ra n t e e c o m p li a n c e w i t h a ll a pp li ca b l e fe d era l

, s t a t e , o r l o ca l l a w s o r r e gu l a ti ons. Th e e mi ss i on

ra t e s a nd r e m ov a l e ff

i c i e n c i e s s e t f

o r t h i n t h e c on s e n t d ec r ee do no t r e li e v e SRP fr o m a n y

ob li g a ti on t o c o m p l y w it h o t h er s t a t e a nd f

e d e ra l r e qu i re m e n t s und er t h e C AA

, i n c l ud i n g SRP ’ s

ob li g a ti on t o s a ti s f

y a n y S t a t e m od e li n g re qu i re m e n t s s e t f o r t h i n t h e Ar i z on a S I P

.

a) B A RT for NO

x

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

AD E Q’ s B A R T a n a l y s i s re li e d i n l a r g e p art on a n a n a l y s i s sub mitt e d b y SRP i n F e b r u a r y

2008. I n it s a n a l y s i s, SRP d e v e l op e d b a s e li n e NO

x e mi ss i ons b y e x a mi n i n g c on ti nuous e mi ss i on

m on it o r i n g s y s t e m ( C EM S ) d a t a fr o m 2001 t o 20 0 3. 51 SRP e x a mi n e d s e v era l NO

x c on t r o l

t ec hno l o g i e s, i n c l ud i n g c o m bus ti on c on t r o l s a nd a dd

- on pos t c o m bus ti on c on t r o l s. A su mm a r y

o f t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n c e a nd v i s i b ili t y im p a c t s a sso c i a t e d w it h t h e s e op ti ons i s p re s e n t e d i n

T a b l e 13. Th i s i n f

o r m a t i on w a s c on t a i n e d i n t h e SRP C o r on a do B A R T a n a l y s i s, a nd w a s re li e d

on b y A D E Q i n d e v e l op i n g it s R H S I P . Es tim a t e s o f c on t r o l t ec hno l og y e m i ss i on ra t e s w e r e

d e v e l op e d b a s e d on i n f

o r m a ti on p r ov i d e d b y e qu i p m e n t v e ndo r s. 52 SRP ’ s a n a l y s i s d i d no t

p r ov i d e a n e s tim a t e o f a n nu a l e mi ss i ons.

50 See D o c k et

I t e m G

- 01

, C o n s e n t Dec r ee b e t w e e n U n ite d Sta t e s a n d Salt R i v e r P ro j ect A g r i c u l t u r al I m

pro v e m e n t

a n d P o w e r D i s t r ict

. 51 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 10

, S R P C oro n a do B A R T A n a l y s i s

, p a g e 3

- 1

. 52 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 10

, S R P C oro n a do B A R T A n a l y s i s

, p 4

- 5

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 30 o f 8 0 T a b l e 13

- C o r o n a d o U n i t s 1 a nd 2 : A r i z o n a ' s C os t a nd V i s i b i l i t y Su mm a r y f o r N Ox

C on t r o l

O p ti on E m i ss i on R a t e

(l b / MM B tu ) T o t a l

E m i ss i on s

R e m o v ed a

(t on s / y r) T o t a l

A nnu a li ze d

C o s t

( $ / y ea r ) C o s t- e f

f ec t i v e n ess b

( $ /t o n ) V i s i b ilit y I m p r o v e me nt c

( d ec i v i e w s ) C o s t p e r t o t a l

d ec i v i e w

i m p r o v e me nt d

( $ / d v ) I m

p r o v e me n t i n

V i s i b ilit y I nd ex e

( d ec i v i e w s )

U n it 1 U n it 2 A v e r a g e I n c r eme n t a l

( f r o m

p r e v i ou s ) T o t a l

( f r o m

b ase li n e ) I n c r eme n t a l

( f r o m

p r e v i ou s ) T o t a l

( f r o m

b ase

case ) I n c r eme n t a l

( f r o m

p r e v i ou s )

O F A

( b ase li n e ) 0

. 4 3 3 0

. 4 6 6

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

F u ll

L NB + O F A 0

. 32 0

. 32 5

, 8 3 8 $1

, 2 2 7

, 0 0 0 $2 10

-- 0

. 1 2 -- $1 0

, 2 25

, 0 0 0 0

. 11

--

F u ll

S NCR + L NB

+ O F A 0

. 22 0

. 22 10

, 1 95 $4

, 6 5 4

, 0 0 0 $4 56 $7 87 0

. 1 6 0

. 04 $2 9

, 0 87

, 5 0 0 0

. 19 0

. 0 8 0

P a rti a l

S CR + L NB+

O FA f 0

. 32 0

. 08 11

, 0 03 $8

, 5 5 7

, 0 0 0 $7 78 $4

, 8 30 0

. 2 4 0

. 12 $3 5

, 6 54

, 1 6 7 0

. 22 0

. 0 3 0

F u ll

S CR + L NB+

S O F A 0

. 08 0

. 08 16

, 7 30 $1 7

, 0 90

, 0 0 0 $1

, 0 22 $1

, 4 90 0

. 3 9 0

. 27 $4 3

, 8 20

, 5 1 3 0

. 34 0

. 1 2 0

a S R P d i d n o t pro v i d e e s t i m at e s o f a nn u al e m i ss i o n s i n i t s B A R T a n a l y s i s

. T h e s e v a l u e s a r e s um m a r ize d f r o m t h e A r iz on a R H S I P

. b C o s t

- e f f ect i v e n e ss w a s n o t p r e s e n te d i n t h e A r iz o n a R H S I P

. T h e s e v al u e s a r e calc u late d f r o m t h e e m i ss i o n

r e m o v al a nd a n n u alize d c o s t s t h at w e r e

i n c l u d e d i n t h e R H S I P

.

c Vi s i b ili t y i m

pro v e m e n t at t h e C la ss I a r ea e x h i b it i ng t h e g r eate s t b a s el i n e v i s i b ili t y i m p a ct

, P et r i f

ie d F or e s t Nati o n al P a r k

, f r o m t h e S R P C oro n a do

B A R T A n a l y s i s

. d C o s t p e r t o tal d eci v i e w i m p r o v e m e n t w a s n o t pr e s e n te d i n t h e A r iz o n a R H S I P

. T h e s e v al u e s a r e calc u late d f r o m t h e a n nu a l ize d c o s t s t h a t w e r e

i n c l u d e d i n t h e R H S I P

, a n d t h e v i s i b il it y i m pro v e m e n t at P e t r i f

ie d F or e s t Nati o n a l P a r k

, f ro m t h e S R P C oro n a do B A R T A n a l y s i s

.

e Vi s i b ili t y i n d e x u s e d i n t h e A r iz o n a R H S I P i s t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e i m p a c t s o v e r t h e n i n e cl o s e s t C l a ss I a r ea s

. f T h i s c o n t ro l op ti o n e x a m i n e d L N B + O F A o n U n it 1 a n d S C R o n U n it 2.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 31 o f 8 0 C on t r o l c os t s f

o r t h e v ar i ous op ti ons c ons i d ere d w ere d e v e l op e d b y S a r g e n t a nd L u n d y

,

t h e e n g i n eer i n g f

i r m re t a i n e d b y SRP f

o r e mi ss i on c on t r o l p r o

j ec t s a t C o r o n a do. I n it s B A R T

a n a l y s i s a nd subs e qu e n t a dd iti on a l re spons e t o A D E Q

, SRP p r ov i d e d su mm ar i e s o f t o t a l c on t r o l

c os t s, su c h a s t o t a l a nnu a l op era ti n g a nd m a i n t e n a n ce c os t s a nd t o t a l a nn u a li z e d ca p it a l c os t , bu t

d i d no t p r ov i d e c os t i n f

o r m a ti on a t a l e v e l o f

d e t a il t h a t i n c l ud e d li n e it e m c os t s. 53

A s p ar t o f it s B A R T a n a l y s i s, SRP p erf o r m e d v i s i b ili t y m od e li n g i n o r d e r t o e v a l u a t e t h e

v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t a t t r i bu t a b l e t o eac h o f t h e NO

x c on t r o l t e c hno l o g i e s t h a t it c ons i d ere d.

Th i s v i s i b il i t y m o d e li n g w a s p e r f o r m e d us i n g t h r e e y e ar s o f m e t e o r o l o g i c a l d a t a ( 2001 t o 2003 )

,

a nd re li e d p a r ti a l l y

on t h e W R A P p r o t o c o l w it h cert a i n re v i s i ons b a s e d on E P A a nd F e d era l

L a nd M a n a g er g u i d a n c e t h a t b eca m e a v a il a b l e i n t h e i n t er

v e n i n g p e r i od. F o r e x a m p l e

, t h e

W R A P p r o t o c o l us e d C AL P U FF m od e l v er s i on 6, w h er e a s SRP us e d t h e c u rre n t E P A- a p p r ov e d

C A L P U F F v e r s i on 5.8.

F o r a s s e ss i n g t h e d e g r e e o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

, AD E Q c ons i d e re d a v i s i b ili t y i nd e x

, d ef i n e d a s t h e a v e ra g e o f t h e v i s i b ili t y b e n ef it s a t t h e c l os e s t n i n e Cl a ss I a r ea s. Th e a v e ra g e

i n c l ud e d t h e f

i v e a rea s w it h t h e h i g h e s t b a s e li n e i m p ac t s. Th i s m e t r i c i s un li k e t h a t us e d f o r

A p ac h e a nd C ho ll a

, f

o r w h i c h t h e b e n e f

it s a t t h e s i n g l e a rea w it h m a x im u m b a s e li n e im p ac t w e re

us e d. S i n ce it i s a n a v e ra g e

, it i s so m e w h a t s imil a r t o t h e su m o f b e n ef it s o v er t h e n i n e a r e a s, a

c u m u l a ti v e m e t r i c us e d i n o t h er a n a l y s e s, e x ce p t it i s d i v i d e d b y n i n e t o c o m pu t e t h e a v e ra g e

. ( T y p i ca l l y t h e su m w ou l d b e c o m pu t e d ov er a ll 17 Cl a ss I a rea s im p a c t e d b y t h e C o r o n a do

fac ili t y

. ) F o r e a c h c on t r o l

, AD E Q li s t e d t h e a v e r a g e v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t i n d ec i v i e w s, a nd

c os t i n milli ons o f

do ll ar s p er a v e r a g e d ec i v i e w im p r ov e m e n t. 54 I m p r ov e m e n t s i n t h e v i s i b ili t y

i nd e x ra n g e d fr o m 0.11 d v f o r L N B w it h O F A t o 0.34 dv f o r SCR

. C os t s p e r

d ec i v i e w f

o r t h e

i nd e x ra n g e d fr o m $11.1 milli on f o r L N B w it h O F A t o $50.3 milli on f o r S CR

. ( Th e s e v a l u e s a re

no t sho w n i n T a

b l e 13 a b ov e no r i n t h e p l a n sub mitt a l

. F o r L N B , $1,227,0 0 0 /0.11 dv

= $11.1

milli on / dv ; f

o r S CR , $1 7 ,090,000 /0.34 dv

= $50.3 milli on / dv. )

W h il e a n a v er a g e o f t h e v i s i b ili t y b e n e f it s ov er t h e n ea r e s t a r ea s i s a n i n f o r m a ti v e

nu m b er

, it i s no t d i rec t l y c o m p ara b l e t o t h e m o re t y

p i c a l m e t r i c s o f t h e m a x im u m b e n ef it s ee n a t

a n y ar e a

, a nd su m ov e r t h e ar e a s. Mo re o v er , n e it h er t h e AD E Q R H S I P no r t h e fac ili t y ’ s re p o r t

( B A R T A n a l y s i s f

o r t h e C o r on a do G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it s 1 & 2, D o c u m e n t N o. 05830

- 012-

200, E N SR C o r

po ra ti on, F e b r

u a r y 2008 ) i n c l ud e c on t r o l b e n ef it s f o r i nd i v i du a l Cl a ss I ar e a s.

Thus, t h e m a x im u m area

b e n ef it ca nno t b e r e a d f

r o m e it h er

do c u m e n t

. H o w e v er

, t h e b e n e f it s ca n

b e c o m pu t e d fr o m t h e i n d i v i du a l area im p a c t s t h a t are p r ov i d e d i n SRP ’ s r e po r t

, i n c l ud i n g f o r

P e t r i f i e d F o r e s t N a ti on a l P ar

k, w h i c h h a d t h e h i g h e s t b a s e li n e im p ac t

. F i g u re s t h a t a r e

c o m p ara b l e t o t hos e f

o r A p ac h e a nd C ho ll a a r e i n c l ud e d i n T a b l e 13. C o r o n a do ’ s m a x im u m area

v i s i b ili t y b e n e f it s ra n g e f r o m 0.12 dv f

o r L N B t o 0.39 dv f

o r SCR . Th e c os t s p er

d ec i v i e w ra n g e

fr o m $10.2 milli on f

o r L N B w it h O F A t o $43.8 f

o r SCR

.

I n e v a l u a ti n g SRP ’ s B A R T a n a l y s i s, A D E Q re q u e s t e d a dd iti on a l suppo r ti n g i n f o r m a ti on

fr o m SRP re g a r d i n g c on t r o l c os t ca l c u l a ti ons, a nd f o r f u r t h e r e x p l a n a ti on r e g a r d i n g SRP ’ s

rec o mm e nd a ti on f

o r B A R T f

o r NO

x . I n d e v e l op i n g it s R e g i on a l H a z e S I P

, AD E Q d e t e r mi n e d

t h a t L N B w it h O F A c on s tit u t e s B A R T f o r NO

x a t C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2. I n m a k i n g t h i s

53 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 11

, A dd iti o n al S R P C oro n a do r e s po n s e

54 A r iz o n a R H S I P

, A

pp e n d i x D

, p

. 1 1 2

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 32 o f 8 0 d e t er mi n a ti on, AD E Q d i d no t p r ov i d e a d e qu a t e i n f o r m a ti on r e g a r d i n g it s ra ti on a l e o r w e i g h i n g

o f t h e f i v e f ac t o r s, s t a ti n g on l y “ [ a ] f

t er r e v i e w i n g t h e B A R T a n a l y s i s p r ov i d e d b y t h e c o m p a n y

,

a nd b a s e d upon t h e i n f

o r m a ti on a

bov e

, AD E Q h a s d e t er

mi n e d t h a t B A R T f

o r NO

x a t C o r on a do

U n it s 1 a nd 2 i s a dv a n c e d c o m bus ti on c on t r o l s ( L o w NO

x bu r n er s w it h O F A) w it h a n a sso c i a t e d

NO

x e mi ss i on ra t e o f

0. 3 2 l b / MM B t u [

.. ] ” 55

( 2) E P A ’s E v a l u a t i on

W e d i s a g r ee w it h s e v e ra l a sp ec t s o f t h e B A R T a n a l y s i s f o r C o r o n a do U n i t s 1 a nd 2.

R e g a r d i n g t h e c on t r o l c o s t ca l c u l a ti ons, w e no t e t h a t SRP d i d no t p r ov i d e AD E Q w it h c on t r o l

c os t ca l c u l a ti ons a t a l e v e l o f d e t a il t h a t a ll o w e d f

o r a c o m p r e h e ns i v e r e v i e w

. W it hou t su c h a

l e v e l o f re v i e w

, w e do n o t b e li e v e t h a t AD E Q w a s a b l e t o e v a l u a t e w h e t h er SRP ’ s c on t r o l c os t s

w ere rea so n a

b l e

. A s a re s u lt

, w e are p r opos i n g t o f i nd t h a t AD E Q d i d no t f

o ll o w t h e

re qu i re m e n t s o f s ec ti on 5 1.308 (e)( 1 )( ii )( A ) b e c a u s e AD E Q d i d no t p r op e r l y c ons i d er t h e c os t s o f

c o m p li a n ce f

o r e a c h c on t r o l op ti on.

Th e m od e li n g p r o ce d

u re s re li e d on b y AD E Q f o r a ss e ss i n g t h e v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s fr o m

C o r on a do w e r e g e n era l l y i n acc o r d w it h E P A g u i d a n ce

. C o r o n a do U n it s 1 a nd 2 w ere m o d e l e d

t o g e t h e r

, a nd t h e m od e li n g w a s don e w it h t h e c u r r e n t r e g u l a t o r y v er s i on 5

. 8 o f t h e C A L P U F F

m od e li n g s y s t e m. 56 H o w e v er

, t h e us e o f t h e m od e li n g r e su lt s i n e v a l u a ti n g t h e B A R T v i s i b ili t y

fac t o r w a s p r ob l e m a ti c

. Th e m od e li n g re su lt s sho w t h a t , o f t h e c on t r o l s c o ns i d ere d, on l y SCR

w ou l d p r ov i d e subs t a n ti a l v i s i b il i t y b e n e f it s ; t h e o t h er c on t r o l s op ti ons w ou l d p r ov i d e r o u g h l y

h a l f t h e 0.5 dv c on t r i bu t i on b e n c h m ar k. AD E Q d i d no t c ons i d er t h e t y p i ca l v i s i b ili t y m e t r i c s o f

b e n ef it a t t h e a rea w it h m a x im u m i m p ac t , no r b e n e f it s su mm e d ov er t h e a re a s. U s i n g t h e d e f a u lt

1 ppb a mm on i a

b ac k g r o u nd c on ce n t r a ti on w ou l d a l so h a v e i n cr e a s e d e s tim a t e d im p ac t s a nd

c on t r o l b e n ef

it s. F o r t h e s e rea sons, E P A p r opos e s t o f i nd t h a t t h e AD E Q s e l ec ti on o f L N B w it h

O F A f o r C o r on a do und er t h e d e g r e e o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t B A R T f ac t o r i s no t a d e qu a t e l y

suppo r t e d, a nd t h a t m o re s t r i n g e n t c on t r o l m a y b e w ar r a n t e d. AD E Q p r ov i d e d littl e rea son i n g

a bou t t h e v i s i b ili t y

b a s i s f o r t h e C o r on a do B A R T s e l ec ti on. F o r e x a m p l e

, t h ere i s no w e i g h i n g o f

t h e v i s i b ili t y

b e n ef it s a n d v i s i b ili t y c os t

- e ff

e c ti v e n e ss f

o r t h e v a r i ous ca nd i d a t e c on t r o l s a nd t h e

v ar i ous Cl a ss I a r ea s.

I n a dd iti on t o t h e p r ob l e m s no t e d a bov e

, w e f

i nd t h a t ov era ll AD E Q h a s n o t do c u m e n t e d

it s e v a l u a ti on o f t h e re su l t s o f it s f i v e-fac t o r a n a l y s i s, a s re qu i re d b y 51.30 8 ( e)( 1 ) ( ii )(A) a nd t h e

B A R T G u i d e li n e s. A lt h o u g h A D E Q h a s d e v e l op e d i n f o r m a ti on r e g a r d i n g eac h o f t h e f i v e

fac t o r s, it s s e l ec ti on o f B A R T do e s no t c it e o r i n t e r p re t i n f o r m a ti on f r o m it s a n a l y s e s. AD E Q

do e s no t

, f

o r e x a m p l e

, i nd i ca t e w h e t h er o r no t it c ons i d ere d a n y c os t t h re s h o l ds t o b e rea son a b l e

o r e x p e ns i v e i n a n a l y

z i n g t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n c e f o r t h e v ar i ous c on t r o l op ti ons. W e no t e t h a t

AD E Q h a s m a d e s imil ar NO

x B A R T d e t er mi n a ti o ns o f L

N B w it h O F A a t o t h er f

a c iliti e s, su c h a s

C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t

. A lt hou g h A D E Q’ s B A R T d e t er mi n a ti ons f

o r t h e s e o t h er f

a c iliti e s im p li e d

t h a t c os t o f c o m p li a n ce w a s a n im po r t a n t c ons i d e ra ti on, it do e s no t p r ov i d e a ra ti on a l e f o r t h e

d e t er mi n a ti on o f NO

x B A R T a t C o r on a do. 57 Th er e f o re

, w e p r opos e t o d e t e r mi n e t h a t AD E Q d i d

55 D o c k et I t e m B

- 01

, A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, P a g e 112

. 56 A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, p

. 112

. 57 W e d o n o te

, h o w e v e r, t h at S R P do e s pro v i d e s o m e a dd iti o n a l a n a l y s i s o n t h i s po s iti o n i n t h e B A R T a n a l y s i s i t

s u b m itte d t o AD E Q a n d i n t h e r e s po n s e s it pro v i d e d t o A D E Q ’ s a dd iti o n al q u e s ti o n s

. A s i d e f r o m s ta t i n g t h at it

r e v i e w e d S R P ’ s a n a l y s i s

, A D E Q d i d n o t s p eci f ical l y r e f e r e n ce or i n cl u d e a n y a s p ec t s o f S R P ’ s a n a l y s i s i n t h e R HAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 33 o f 8 0 no t f o ll o w t h e re qu i re m e n t s o f s ec ti on 51.308 (e )( 1 )( ii )(A)

. W e p r opo s e t o d i s a pp r ov e AD E Q’ s

s e l ec ti on o f L

N B w it h O F A a s B A R T f o r NO

x a t C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2

.

b) B A RT for PM

10

E mi ss i ons o f PM 10 fr o m C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2 are c u rre n t l y c on t r o ll e d b y ho t

- s i d e

E SP s. 58 U nd er t h e t er

m s o f t h e C ons e n t D ec r ee d e s c r i b e d a bov e

, SRP i s re qu i re d t o op timi z e it s

E SP s t o ac h i e v e a PM 10 e mi ss i on ra t e o f 0.030 l b / MM B t u. 59

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

y s is

AD E Q c ond

u c t e d a s t r e a mli n e d PM 10 B A R T a n a l y s i s f o r C o r o n a do U n it s 1 a nd 2. I n

p arti c u l ar

, A D E Q f

ound t h a t “ B A R T f

o r s imil ar e mi ss i ons un it s w i t h s im il ar e mi ss i ons c on t r o l s

w a s d e t er mi n e d t o b e 0. 0 3 l b / MM B t u. ” AD E Q c o n c l ud e d t h a t b e c a us e C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2

are a l rea d y m ee ti n g a limit o f 0.03 l b / MM B t u, “f

u r t h er a n a l y s i s w a s d e t er

m i n e d t o b e

unn ece ss a r y

. ”

EPA ’ s Ev a l ua ti on: AD E Q’ s a n a l y s i s do e s no t d e m ons t ra t e t h a t a ll po t e n ti a l up g r a d e s t o

t h e e x i s ti n g E SP s w ere f

u l l y e v a l u a t e d. H o w e v er

, w e h a v e no e v i d e n c e t h a t a dd iti on a l re du c ti ons

i n PM 1 0 e mi s s i ons w ou l d

b e ac h i e v a

b l e o r c os t -e ff

ec ti v e , o r t h a t su c h re du c ti ons w ou l d y i e l d

subs t a n ti a l v i s i b il i t y b e n e f it s. Th eref

o re

, w e p r op o s e t o a

pp r ov e A D E Q’ s PM 10 B A R T

d e t er mi n a ti on a t C o r on a d o. H o w e v e r

, w e are s ee k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er a dd iti on a l c os teff e c ti v e u p g ra d e s t o t h e e x i s ti n g E SP s are a v a il a b l e t h a t w ou l d w ar

r a n t a l o w er e mi ss i on limit

. I f w e re c e i v e c o mm e n t s e s t a b li sh i n g t h a t a l o w er limit i s ac h i e v a b l e

, t h e n w e m a y

d i s a pp r o v e t h e

PM 10 e mi ss i ons l imit s e t b y A D E Q a nd p r o m u l g a t e a re v i s e d limit f o r on e o r bo t h o f t h e s e un it s.

F i n a l l y

, w e a re s e e k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er t e s t m e t hods o t h er t h a n E P A M e t hod 201

a nd 202 60 (c hos e n b y AD E Q) shou l d b e a ll o w e d o r re qu i re d f o r e s t a b li sh i n g c o m p li a n ce w it h t h e

PM 10 li m it s t h a t w e are a pp r ov i n g

. I n p arti c u l a r

, a s e x p l a i n e d b e l o w , us e o f SCR a t t h e s e un it s i s

e x p ec t e d t o re su lt i n i n c r ea s e d c on d e ns a b l e p arti c u l a t e m a tt er i n t h e f o r m o f H 2 SO 4

. I n ef

f ec t

, t h e

e mi ss i on limit w ou l d b e m o re s t r i ng e n t t h a n i n t e n d e d b y AD E Q a nd w ou l d li k e l y no t b e

ac h i e v a b l e i n p rac ti c e

. I n o r d er t o a vo i d t h i s re su l t

, w h il e s till a ssu r i n g p r o p er op e r a ti on o f t h e

p arti c u l a t e c on t r o l d e v i c e s, w e a r e re q u e s ti n g on c o mm e n t on w h e t h er t o a l l o w c o m p li a n ce w it h

t h e PM 10 lim i t t o b e d e m ons t ra t e d us i n g t e s t m e t h ods t h a t do no t ca p t u re c ond e ns a

b l e p a r ti c u l a t e

m a tt er , n a m e l y

E P A M e t hods 1 t h r ou g h 4 a nd M e t hod 5 o r M e t hod 5 e. 61 M e t hod 201 i s v e r y

rare l y us e d f o r t e s ti n g

. T h e t y

p i c a l m e t hod us e d f

o r f ilt era b l e PM 10 i s M e t

hod 201 A

, “c ons t a n t

s a m p li n g ra t e p r o c e du re

, ” w h i c h i s s imil ar t o M e t hod 201, bu t i s m u c h m o re p r a c ti ca l t o p e r f o r m

on a s t ac k.

S I P

. A s a r e s u l t

, w e a r e n o t a s s u m i ng t h at A D E Q n ece s s a r i l y a g r ee s w i t h S R P ’ s r ati o n ale

, a n d h a v e t h e r e f or e n o t

pro v i d e d a n a n a l y s i s o f it

. 58 See A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, p

. 1 1 2 f

or AD E Q ’ s B A R T A n a l y s i s f or PM 10 at C oro n a do U n it s 1

a n d 2 ; a n d B A R T A n a l y s i s f o r C oro n a do Ge n e r ati n g Stati o n U n i t s 1 a n d 2 ( Fe br u a r y 2008 ) f or S R P ’ s a n a l y s i s

. 59 D o c k et I t e m G

- 01

, C o n s e n t D ec r ee b e t w ee n U n ite d Stat e s a n d Salt R i v e r P ro j ect A g r ic u l t u r al I m

pro v e m e n t a n d

P o w e r D i s t r ict

, § V

. 60 See 40 C F R P a r t 51 A

pp e n d i x M.

61 See 40 C F R P a r t 60 A

pp e n d i x A

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 34 o f 8 0 c) B A RT for SO 2

E mi ss i ons o f SO 2 a t C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2 a r e c u rre n t l y c on t r o ll e d w it h t h e us e o f l o wsu l f u r c o a l a nd p arti a l w e t f

l u e g a s. 62 H o w e v er

, t h e c ons e n t d e c ree b e t w e e n E P A a nd SRP

d e s cr i b e d a

bov e r e qu i re s i ns t a ll a ti on o f w e t f l u e g a s d e su l f

u r i z a ti on ( W F G D ) s y s t e m s a t e it h er

U n it 1 o r U n it 2 b y J a nu ar y 2012, a nd a t t h e r e m a i n i n g un it b y J a nu a r y 1, 2 013. B o t h un it s m us t

ac h i e v e a nd m a i n t a i n a 3 0

- d a y r o lli n g a v e ra g e SO

2 re m ov a l eff i c i e n c y o f a t l ea s t 95.0 p er c e n t o r

a 30

- d a y r o lli n g a v er a g e SO

2 e mi s s i ons ra t e o f no g r ea t e r t h a n 0.080 l b / MM B t u.

( 1) A D E Q’s A na l

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e mi ss i ons, AD E Q d i d no t e v a l u a t e o t h er c on t r o l o p ti ons. T a b l e 14 su mm ar i z e s Ar i z on a’ s

a ss e ss m e n t o f t h e c o m p l i a n ce c os t s a nd v i s i b ili t y i m p r ov e m e n t s e x p ec t e d t o re su lt fr o m

i ns t a ll a ti on o f W F GD a t bo t h un it s. B a s e d on t h i s i n f o r m a ti on, AD E Q d e t e r

mi n e d SO 2 B A R T f

o r

bo t h un it s i s t h e i ns t a ll a t i on o f W F GD s a nd a n e m i ss i on ra t e o f 0.08 l bs / MM B t u on 30

- d a y

r o lli n g a v e r a g e b a s i s

.

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W e are p r opos i n g t o a

pp r ov e AD E Q’ s SO 2 B A R T d e t er mi n a ti on f

o r C o r on a do U n it s 1

a nd 2. A lt hou g h w e do n o t n ece ss ar i l y a g r e e w it h t h e und er l y i n g c os t a nd v i s i b ili t y a n a l y s e s

p erf o r m e d b y SRP

, w e h a v e no e v i d e n ce t h a t a dd iti on a l a n a l y s i s w ou l d h a v e re su lt e d i n a l o w er

e mi ss i on limit . Th eref

o r e

, w e p r opos e t o a

p p r ov e AD E Q’ s SO 2 e mi ss i on l i mit o f 0.08 l b / MM B t u ( 30

- d a y r o lli n g a v e r a g e) f o r C o r on a do U n it s 1 a n d 2. H o w e v e r

, w e are s ee k i n g c o mm e n t on

w h e t h er a l o w er e mi ss i on limit m a y b e ac h i e v a b l e w h e n t h e un it s a r e bu r n i n g a l o w er- su l f

u r

c o a l

. I f w e r e ce i v e c o mm e n t s e s t a b li sh i n g t h a t a l o w er limit i s ac h i e v a b l e

, t h e n w e m a y

d i s a pp r ov e t h e SO 2 e mi ss i ons limit s e t b y AD E Q a nd p r o m u l g a t e a re v i s e d limit f o r on e o r bo t h

o f t h e s e un it s.



### D. E n f o rc e a b i l i ty of B A RT L im i ts

R e g i on a l H a z e S I P s m us t i n c l ud e re qu i r e m e n t s t o e nsu re t h a t B A R T e mi ss i on limit s are

e n f o r c ea b l e

. I n p ar

ti c u l ar

, t h e R H R re qu i re s i n c l u s i on o f ( 1 ) a s c h e du l e f

o r c o m p li a n ce w it h

B A R T f o r ea c h sou r c e sub

j ec t t o B A R T ; ( 2 ) a re q u i re m e n t f o r e ac h B A R T sou rce t o m a i n t a i n

62 See A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x D

, pp

. 1 13

- 15 f

or A D E Q ’ s B A R T A n a l y s i s f o r PM 10 at C oro n a do

U n i t s 1 a n d 2 ; a n d D o c k et N o

. B

. 1 0

, B A R T A n a l y s i s f or C oro n a do Ge n e r ati n g Stati o n U n i t s 1 a n d 2 ( Fe b

. 2 00 8 ) f or

S R P ’ s a n a l y s i s

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 35 o f 8 0 t h e re l e v a n t c on t r o l e qu i p m e n t; a nd ( 3 ) p r o c e du re s t o e nsu re c on t r o l e qu i p m e n t i s p r op er l y

op era t e d a nd m a i n t a i n e d. 63 G e n e r a l S I P r e qu i re m e n t s a l so m a nd a t e t h a t t h e S I P i n c l ud e a ll

r e g u l a t o r y r e qu i re m e n t s r e l a t e d t o m on it o r i n g

, r e c o r dk ee p i n g a nd re po r ti n g f o r t h e B A R T

e mi ss i ons lim i t a ti ons. 64 A D E Q d i d no t i n c l ud e a n y o f t h e s e e l e m e n t s i n it s R e g i on a l H a z e S I P. 65

Th eref o re

, w e a r e p r opo s i n g t o d i s a pp r ov e t h i s a s p ec t o f t h e R e g i on a l H a z e S I P f o r t h e s e t h r e e

sou rce s a nd t o p r o m u l g a t e a F I P t o e nsu re t h e e mi ss i on limi t s are e n f o rc ea b l e

.



### I V. T ec h ni c al I n f

o rm a ti on f

or E P A ’s P r o p os ed F IP A c t i o ns

A. E P A’s BA RT A n a l y s is f or NO

x

E P A c ondu c t e d a n e w f

i v e-f a c t o r B A R T a n a l y s i s f

o r NO x a t eac h o f t h e t h r ee f a c iliti e s i n

o r d er t o e v a l u a t e Ar i z on a ’ s R H S I P

, a nd t o do c u m e n t t h e t ec hn i ca l b a s i s f o r p r opos i n g B A R T

d e t er mi n a ti ons i n ou r F I P

. B eca u s e E P A g e n era l l y c o n c u r s w it h AD E Q’ s B A R T a n a l y s e s i n

S t e ps 1 a nd 2 ( I d e n ti f

y A ll A v a il a

b l e R e t r o f

it C on t r o l T ec hno l o g i e s a nd E l i mi n a t e T ec hn i c a l l y

I n fea s i b l e O p ti ons )

, w e f

o c us e d ou r t e c hn i ca l a n a l y s i s on S t e ps 3, 4 a nd 5 ( Ev a l u a t e C on t r o l

E ffec ti v e n e ss o f R e m a i n i n g C on t r o l T ec hno l o g i e s

, Ev a l u a t e I m p a c t s a nd D o c u m e n t R e su lt s, a nd

Ev a l u a t e V i s i b ili t y I m p a c t s )

. W e re li e d on c on t ra c t o r a ss i s t a n ce fr o m t h e U n i v er s i t y o f N o r t h

C ar o li n a I ns tit u t e f

o r t h e Env i r on m e n t t o e v a l u a t e c on t r o l ef f ec ti v e n e ss, p e r f

o r m c os t

ca l c u l a ti ons, a nd c ond

u c t n e w v i s i b ili t y m od e li n g f o r e a c h o f t h e un it s a t t h e t h ree fac iliti e s,

e x ce p t A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 1 f o r w h i c h t h i s l e v e l o f a n a l y s i s w a s unn ece s s a r y

. O u r

a pp r o ac h t o eac h o f t h e s e fac t o r s i s e x p l a i n e d b e l o w

, f o ll o w e d b y

ou r B A R T d e t er

mi n a ti ons f

o r

t h e t h ree sou r ce s i n t h e n e x t s ec ti on

.

1. C ost of C om pl i a n ce

C os t Es ti m a t e s and C

a l c u l a ti ons: I n e s tim a ti n g t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n c e

, w e h a v e r e li e d

on fac ili t y d a t a fr o m a

n u m b er o f sou r c e s i n c l ud i n g A D E Q

, t h e En er g y I n f o r m a ti on

A d mi n i s t ra ti on ( E I A )

, a n d E P A’ s C on t r o l C os t M a nu a l

. A s d i s c uss e d p r e v i ous l y

, AD E Q

, i n

d e v e l op i n g it s R H S I P

, r e qu e s t e d c ert a i n c l a r i f y i n g i n f o r m a ti on fr o m t h e f

a c iliti e s re g ar d i n g t h e i r

c on t r o l c os t ca l c u l a ti ons, i n c l ud i n g g r e a t er d e t a il r e g ar d i n g t h e und e r l y i n g a ssu m p ti ons. AD E Q

r ece i v e d re spon s e s o f

v ar y i n g d e t a il t o t h e s e re qu e s t s. A lt hou g h i n so m e c a s e s t h e fac iliti e s

p r ov i d e d su mm ar i e s o f c ert a i n b r o a d li n e it e m c o s t s, i n no ca s e do e s t h e s u ppo r ti n g i n f o r m a ti on

t h a t i s a v a il a

b l e p r ov i d e d e t a il a t a l e v e l t h a t a ll o w s f o r cr iti c a l re v i e w

. I n t h e ca s e o f SRP

C o r on a do G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on, AD E Q re c e i v e d on l y a b r o a d su mm a r y o f c o n t r o l c os t s w it hou t

it e mi z e d b rea kdo w ns o f sp ec i f i c c os t s.

A s a re su lt

, w e h a v e us e d E P A’ s I n t e g ra t e d P l a nn i n g Mod e l ( I P M ) t o ca l c u l a t e t h e

ca p it a l c os t s a nd a nn u a l op era ti n g c os t s a sso c i a t e d w it h t h e v ar i ous NO

x c on t r o l op ti ons. E P A’ s

Cl ea n A i r M ar k e t s D i v i s i on ( C A M D) us e s I P M t o e v a l u a t e t h e c os t a nd e m i ss i ons im p ac t s o f

p r opos e d po li c i e s t o limi t e mi ss i ons o f SO 2 , NO

x , car bon d i o x i d e ( CO 2 )

, a nd m erc u r y (H g ) f r o m

t h e e l ec t r i c p o w er s ec t o r

. D e v e l op e d b y I C F C onsu lti n g

, I n c

. a nd u s e d t o suppo r t pub li c a nd

63 40 C F R 51

. 30 8 ( e ) ( 1)

. 64 See

, e

. g

. C A A s ec t i o n 110( a ) ( 2) ( F ) a n d 4 0 C F R 51

. 212( c )

. 65 A s d e s c r i b e d a bo v e

, A D E Q d i d s p eci f y a t e s t m e t h od f

or PM 10 f or eac h o f t h e r el e v a n t s o u r ce s (M et h od 201 / 20 2 ).

H o w e v e r, w e a r e propo s i ng t o al s o all o w t h e u s e o f te s t m e t h od s t h at do n o t cap tu r e c o n d e n s a b le p a r tic u late m atte r,

n a m e l y E P A M et h od s 1 t h rou gh 4 a n d M e t h od 5 or M et h od 5 e

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 36 o f 8 0 p r i v a t e s ec t o r c li e n t s, I P M i s a m u lti -re g i on a l

, d y n a mi c , d e t er mi n i s ti c li n ear

p r o g r a mmi n g m od e l

o f t h e U

. S

. e l ec t r i c po w e r s ec t o r . E P A h a s u s e d I P M i n r u l e m a k i n g s su c h a s t h e M erc u r y a nd A i r

To x i c s S t a nd ar d a nd t h e C r oss

- S t a t e A i r P o ll u ti o n R u l e

. F o r t h e pu r

po s e s o f t h i s B A R T

d e t er mi n a ti on, w e sp e c i f

i ca l l y u s e d on l y t h e NO

x e mi ss i on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y c os t

m e t hodo l o g i e s c on t a i n e d i n E P A’ s I P M B a s e C a s e v4.10 (A u g us t 2010 ). 66 F o r B a s e C a s e v4.10,

E P A’ s Cl ea n A i r

M ar k e t s D i v i s i on c on t rac t e d w i t h e n g i n eer i n g f i r m S ar g e n t a nd L un d y t o

p erf o r m a c o m p l e t e bo tt o m

- up e n g i n eer i n g r ea ss e s s m e n t o f t h e c os t a nd p er f o r m a n c e

a ssu m p ti ons f

o r SO 2 a nd n it r o g e n o x i d e s NO

x e mi ss i on c on t r o l s. S u mm ar i e s o f ou r c on t r o l c os t

e s tim a t e s f

o r t h e v a r i ous c on t r o l t ec hno l og y op ti ons c ons i d ere d f

o r e ac h u n it are i n c l ud e d b e l o w

.

W e us e d pub li c l y a v a il a

b l e i n f o r m a ti on t o e s tim a t e t h a t A E PC O i s a s m a ll u tili t y . E P A

r e qu e s t e d i n f

o r m a ti on fr o m A E PC O on t h e ec on o mi c s o f op era ti n g A p a c h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on

a nd w h a t im p ac t t h e i ns t a ll a ti on o f SCR m a y h a v e on t h e ec ono mi c s o f o p e r a ti n g A p ac h e

G e n e r a ti n g S t a ti on. S p e c i f i ca l l y , E P A i s s e e k i n g i n f o r m a ti on on t h e a

b ili t y o f A E PC O t o rec ov e r

t h e c os t o f

po ll u ti on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y t h r o u g h r a t e i n crea s e s a nd t h e im p a c t t hos e ra t e i n c rea s e s

m a y h a v e on A E PC O’ s c us t o m er s. I f w e re c e i v e c o mm e n t s su ff i c i e n t l y d o c u m e n ti n g t h a t

i ns t a ll a ti on o f SCR m a y h a v e a s e v e r e im p ac t on t h e ec ono mi c s o f o p era ti n g A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g

S t a ti on, w e m a y i n c o r

po r a t e su c h c ons i d e ra ti ons i n ou r s e l ec ti on o f B A R T

. O u r im p ac t a n a l y s i s

a nd re qu e s t f

o r c o mm e n t i s d i s c uss e d i n m o re d e t a il b e l o w , und er E P A’ s B A R T D e t er

mi n a ti ons

f o r A p a c h e U n it s 2 a nd 3

.

C on t ro l E ff ec ti ve n e ss: T h e e v a l u a ti on o f c on t r o l e ffec ti v e n e ss i s a n im po r t a n t p art o f a

f i v e-f a c t o r a n a l y s i s b ec a us e it i n f l u e n ce s bo t h c o s t -eff

e c ti v e n e ss a nd v i s i b i li t y b e n ef it s. Th e

B A R T G u i d e li n e s no t e t h a t f o r e ac h t e c hn i ca l l y f

ea s i b l e c on t r o l op ti on :

“ I t i s im po r t a n t

. . . t h a t i n a n a l y z i n g t h e t e c hno l o g y y ou t a k e i n t o acc oun t t h e

m os t s t r i n g e n t e mi ss i on c on t r o l l e v e l t h a t t h e t ec h n o l o g y i s ca p a b l e o f ac h i e v i n g

. Y ou shou l d c ons i d er r e c e n t r e g u l a t o r y d e c i s i ons a nd p erf

o r m a n ce d a t a ( e

. g.,

m a nu fac t u r e r ' s d a t a

, e n g i n eer i n g e s tim a t e s a nd t h e e x p er i e n ce o f o t h er sou r ce s )

w h e n i d e n ti f

y i n g a n e mi s s i ons p erf

o r m a n ce l e v e l o r l e v e l s t o e v a l u a t e .” 67

I n g e n e r a l , ou r e s tim a t e s o f L N B a nd S N CR c on t r o l eff e c ti v e n e ss d i f

f er s li g h t l y fr o m t h e

c on t r o l ef f ec ti v e n e ss l e v e l s c ons i d ere d b y AD E Q

. I n t h e ca s e o f L N B

, f o r e x a m p l e

, t h i s

i s t h e re su lt o f t h e f

a c t t h a t ac t u a l e mi ss i ons d a t a f o r L N B p erf o r m a n c e w er e a v a il a

b l e f o r

cer t a i n un it s a t t h e tim e o f ou r a n a l y s i s. AD E Q’ s a n a l y s i s w a s p erf o r m e d a t a n ear li e r

d a t e w h e n t h e s e e mi ss i ons d a t a w e r e no t a v a il a b l e

. Mo re d e t a il e d i n f

o r m a ti on r e g ar d i n g

t h e s e d i ff e re n c e s i s i n ou r

d i s c uss i on o f i nd i v i du a l fac iliti e s i n t h e f o ll o w i n g s e c ti ons o f

t h i s T S D

.

I n p arti c u l ar

, w e f

i nd t h a t AD E Q d i d no t a d e q u a t e l y suppo r t it s e s tim a t e o f SCR c on t r o l

eff e c ti v e n e ss. SCR

, a s a n a dd

- on c on t r o l t e c hno l o g y

, c a n b e i ns t a ll e d b y it s e l f a s a s t a n d a l on e

op ti on o r i n c on

j un c ti on w it h bu r

n er u p g r a d e s. I n ca s e s w h ere un it s c a n b e up g r a d e d w it h

c o m bus ti on c on t r o l t ec h n o l o g y su c h a s l o w-NO x bu r

n er s, SCR i s c o mm on l y i ns t a ll e d a s a n a ddon pos t -c o m bus ti on c on t r o l

. W h e n e v a l u a ti n g c on t r o l op ti ons w it h a ra ng e o f e mi ss i on

66 h tt p :/ / ww w

. e p a

. g o v /ai r m a r k

t/ pro g s r e g s /e p a

- i p m

/ B a s e C a s e v410

. h t m l #do c u m e n tati on

67 40 C F R P a r t 51

, A

pp e n d i x Y § I V

. D

. 3

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 37 o f 8 0 p erf o r m a n ce l e v e l s, t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s i nd i ca t e t h a t “ i n a n a l y z i n g t h e t ec hno l og y y ou t a k e

i n t o acc oun t t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t e mi ss i on c on t r o l l e v e l t h a t t h e t ec hno l og y i s ca p a b l e o f

ac h i e v i n g .” 68 E x i s ti n g v e ndo r lit era t u re a nd t ec hn i c a l s t ud i e s i nd i ca t e t h a t SCR s y s t e m s are

ca p a b l e o f ac h i e v i n g a

0

. 05 l b / MM B t u e mi ss i on ra t e (a p p r o x im a t e l y

80

- 9 0 % c on t r o l e f

f i c i e n c y )

a nd t h a t t h i s e mi ss i on ra t e ca n b e ac h i e v e d on a r e t r o f it b a s i s, p arti c u l ar l y w h e n c o m b i n e d w it h

c o m bus ti on c on t r o l t ec h n o l o g y su c h a s L

N B

. 69

F o r c on t r o l op ti ons i nvo l v i n g t h e i ns t a ll a ti on SC R i n c on j un c ti on w it h L

N B

, AD E Q

c ons i d ere d t h e ac h i e v a

b l e e mi ss i on ra t e t o b e b e t w ee n 0.07 l b / MMb t u (f o r A p ac h e a nd C ho ll a)

a nd 0.08 l b / MMb t u (f

o r C o r on a do ) . Th e s e e mi ss i on ra t e s a r e w it h i n a r a n g e o f SCR p erf o r m a n ce

t h a t h a s b ee n c ons i d ere d

b y o t h er w e s t e r

n s t a t e s i n p re p ar i n g R H S I P s, a nd m a y poss i b l y b e a n

a pp r op r i a t e e s tim a ti on o f t h e s it e- sp ec i f i c l e v e l o f SCR

p erf o r m a n ce f o r c o a l -f i re d un it s a t

A p ac h e

, C ho ll a

, a nd C o r on a do. W e no t e t h a t t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s i nd i ca t e t h a t

, “ I n a ss e ss i n g

t h e ca p a b ili t y o f t h e c on t r o l a lt er

n a ti v e

, l a tit ud e e x i s t s t o c ons i d er sp ec i a l c i rc u m s t a n ce s p e r ti n e n t

t o t h e sp ec i f

i c sou r ce un d er re v i e w [

... ]

. H o w e v er

, y ou shou l d e x p l a i n t h e b a s i s f o r c hoos i n g t h e

a lt er n a t e l e v e l ( o r r a n g e ) o f c on t r o l i n t h e B A R T a n a l y s i s.” 70 A lt hou g h t h e a lt er n a t e l e v e l s o f

e mi ss i on c on t r o l c ons i d ere d b y AD E Q f o r SCR i n c on

j un c ti on w it h L

N B w ere s t a t e d i n eac h

re sp ec ti v e f

a c ili t y ’ s B A R T a n a l y s i s, t h e s e e mi ss i on ra t e s w e re no t f u r t h er s uppo r t e d b y a n y

ca l c u l a ti ons, e n g i n e er i n g a n a l y s i s, o r do c u m e n t a t i on. W e do no t b e li e v e t h a t A E PC O

, A PS

, a nd

SRP h a v e p r ov i d e d a d e q u a t e suppo r ti n g a n a l y s i s t o j us ti f y t h e s e e mi ss i on ra t e s. A s m e n ti on e d i n

t h e F e d era l R e g i s t er

no t i ce f o r t h i s a c ti on, w e a re s ee k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er it i s a pp r op r i a t e

t o c ons i d er a n e mi ss i on r a t e l e ss s t r i ng e n t t h a n 0. 0 5 l b / MM B t u w h e n e v a l u a ti n g t h e i ns t a ll a ti on

SCR i n c on

j un c ti on w it h LN B a t A p ac h e

, C ho ll a

, a nd C o r on a do.

I n t h e a bs e n ce o f so u rc e- sp ec i f

i c c ons i d era ti ons w arra n ti n g a l e ss s t r i ng e n t c on t r o l l e v e l

,

w e p re su m e t h a t a n e mi s s i ons limit o f 0.05 l b /M M B t u i s ac h i e v a b l e b y t h e s e un it s t h r ou g h t h e

us e o f SCR i n a dd iti on t o a dv a n c e d c o m bus ti on c o n t r o l s. W e h a v e r e ce n t l y re c e i v e d i n f o r m a ti on

fr o m A E PC O a nd SRP re g a r d i n g po t e n ti a l NO

x c o n t r o l s a t t h e i r fac iliti e s. T h i s i n f o r m a ti on

arr i v e d t oo l a t e t o b e f

u l l y e v a l u a t e d f

o r t h i s p r o p os e d r

u l e m a k i n g

, a nd E P A w ill n ee d a dd iti on a l

do c u m e n t a ti on fr o m t h e u tiliti e s t o suppo r t t h e i n f o r m a ti on t h a t t h e y h a v e p r ov i d e d t o d a t e

. W e

h a v e pu t t h e u tili t y i n f

o r m a ti on i n t h e do c k e t f

o r pub li c re v i e w

, a nd w e w i ll e v a l u a t e t h e

i n f o r m a ti on, a nd a n y a d d iti on a l i n f o r m a ti on t h a t t h e u tiliti e s m a y w a n t t o p r ov i d e p r i o r t o

m a k i n g ou r f

i n a l B A R T d e t er

mi n a ti ons. 71 I f w e r ec e i v e a dd iti on a l c o mm e n t s t h a t su ff i c i e n t l y

do c u m e n t sou rc e

- sp ec i f

i c c ons i d e r a ti ons j us ti f

y i n g t h e u s e o f a n e mi ss i on ra t e l e ss s t r i ng e n t t h a n

0.05 l b / MM B t u, w e m a y i n c o r po ra t e s u c h c ons i d e ra ti ons i n ou r s e l ec ti on o f B A R T.

2. E n ergy a nd No n

- a ir E n v i ro n m e n tal Im p a c ts

En e rg y Im p a c t s: W it h re sp ec t t o t h e po t e n ti a l e n e r g y im p a c t s o f t h e B A R T c on t r o l

op ti ons, w e no t e t h a t SCR i n c u r s a d r a f t l oss t h a t w ill i n crea s e p ara s iti c l o a ds, a nd t h a t o t h er

e mi ss i ons c on t r o l s m a y a l so h a v e m od e s t e n e r g y i m p ac t s. Th e c os t s f o r d i r ec t e n er g y im p ac t s,

68 70 F R 39 1 6 6

69 See D o c k et

I t e m s G

- 04

, “ E m i ss i on s C o n t ro l: C o s t

- E ff ec t i v e L a y e r e d T ec hn o l og y f or Ult r a

- L o w NO x C o n t ro l”

(20 0 7)

, D o c k et

I te m G

- 05 “ W h a t ’ s N e w i n S C R s ” ( 2006 )

, a n d D o c k et

I t e m G

- 06 “Nit ro g e n O x i d e s E m i ss i o n

C o n t ro l O p ti o n s f

or C o al

- Fi r e d E lect r ic Utili t y Bo ile r s ” ( 2005 )

70 40 C F R P a r t 51

, A

pp e n d i x Y § I V

. D

. 3

. 71 D o c k et I t e m s C

- 15 “ L ette r f

r o m Kel l y B a rr ( S R P ) t o De bo r a h J ord a n (E P A ) ” a n d C

- 16 “ L ette r f r o m M i c h elle

F r eea r k ( A E P C O ) t o De bor a h J ord a n ( E P A ). ”Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 38 o f 8 0 i

. e ., po w er c o nsu m p ti on fr o m t h e c on t r o l e qu i p m e n t a nd a dd iti on a l d raf t s y s t e m fa ns fr o m e ac h

c on t r o l t ec hno l og y

, a r e i n c l ud e d i n t h e c os t a n a l y s e s a nd a r e no t c ons i d e re d f u r t h er i n t h i s

s ec ti on. I nd i rec t e n e r g y i m p ac t s, su c h a s t h e e n e r g y t o p r od u ce r a w m a t er i a l s, are no t c ons i d e r e d,

c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e B A R T g u i d e li n e s

.

A mm on i a Adsorp ti on: A mm on i a a dso r p ti on (re s u lti n g fr o m a mm on i a i n j e c ti on fr o m SCR

o r s e l ec ti v e non

- ca t a l y

ti c re du c ti on— S N CR ) t o f l y a sh i s g e n e r a l l y

no t d e s i ra

b l e du e t o odo r

bu t

do e s no t im p ac t t h e i n t e g r i t y o f t h e u s e o f f

l y a sh i n c on cre t e

. H o w e v er , o t h er NO

x c on t r o l

t ec hno l o g i e s, i n c l ud i n g L N B

, a l so h a v e und e s i r a b l e im p ac t s on f

l y a sh. L N B s i n cr e a s e t h e

a m oun t o f

unbu r n e d c ar b on i n t h e f

l y a sh, a l so kno w n a s L oss o f I gn iti on ( L O I )

, w h i c h d o e s

aff e c t t h e i n t e g r i t y

o f t h e c on cre t e

. C o mm erc i a l s c a l e t ec hno l o g i e s e x i s t t o re m ov e a mm on i a a nd

L O I fr o m f

l y a sh. Mo re o v er

, t h e im p ac t o f SCR on f l y a sh i s s m a ll er t h a n t h e im p ac t o f L N B on

f l y a sh, a nd i n bo t h ca s e s

, t h e a dv er s e e f fec t s c a n b e miti g a t e d. 72 W e c on c l ud e t h a t t h e a b ili t y o f

t h e re l e v a n t fac iliti e s t o s e ll f l y a sh i s un li k e l y t o b e af f ec t e d b y t h e i ns t a ll a ti on o f SCR a nd

S N CR t ec hno l o g i e s

.

Sa f e t y: SCR a nd S N CR m a y i nvo l v e po t e n ti a l s af e t y h a z ar ds a sso c i a t e d w i t h t h e

t ra nspo r t a ti on a nd h a nd l i n g o f a n h y d r ous a mm on i a

. S i n ce e a c h o f t h e re l e v a n t fac iliti e s i s s er v e d

b y a n ear b y ra il r o a d li n e

, E P A c on c l ud e s t h a t t h e us e o f a mm on i a do e s no t pos e a n y a dd iti on a l

s afe t y c o n cer

n a s l on g a s e s t a

b li sh e d s afe t y

p r o c e du re s a r e f

o ll o w e d.

Thus, E P A p r opos e s t o f

i nd t h a t po t e n ti a l e n e r g y a nd non -a i r qu a li t y im p ac t s do no t

w ar r a n t e limi n a ti on o f a n y o f t h e o t h er w i s e fea s i b l e c on t r o l op ti ons f o r NO

x a t a n y

o f t h e

sou rce s.

3. P o llu t i on C o n t rol E q u i p me nt in U se at t he S o u rce

Th e p re s e n ce o f e x i s ti n g po ll u ti on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y a t eac h so u rce i s r ef l ec t e d i n ou r

B A R T a n a l y s i s i n t w o w a y s : f i r s t

, i n t h e c ons i d e r a ti on o f a v a il a b l e c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s, a nd

s ec ond, i n t h e d e v e l op m e n t o f b a s e li n e e mi ss i on r a t e s f o r us e i n c os t c a l c u l a ti ons a nd v i s i b ili t y

m od e li n g

. A s no t e d a

bo v e

, w e l a r g e l y a g r ee w it h AD E Q’ s c ons i d e ra ti on o f a v a il a b l e c on t r o l

t ec hno l o g i e s. H o w e v er

, b eca us e s e v e r a l o f t h e af

fe c t e d un it s h a v e h a d n e w c on t r o l s i ns t a ll e d i n

t h e l a s t s e v era l y e ar s, w e h a v e a d j us t e d t h e b a s e li n e e mi ss i ons p er i ods t o re f l ec t c u r r e n t c on t r o l

t ec hno l o g y a t t h e sou r c e s

, a s d e s cr i b e d f u r t h e r b e l o w i n ou r

p r opos e d B A R T d e t er

mi n a ti ons.

4. R em a ining U se ful L i fe of t he S o u rce

W e are c ons i d e r i n g e a c h sou rc e ' s “ re m a i n i n g us e f u l li fe” a s on e e l e m e n t o f t h e ov era ll

c os t a n a l y s i s a s a ll o w e d

b y t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s

. S i n ce w e a r e no t a w are o f a n y fe d era l l y

- o r

S t a t e-e n f o r cea b l e shu t

- d o w n d a t e f

o r a n y o f t h e a ffec t e d sou r c e s, w e h a v e us e d t h e d e f a u lt 20-

y ea r a m o r ti z a ti on p er i od i n t h e E P A C os t C on t r o l M a nu a l a s t h e r e m a i n i n g us ef u l li fe o f t h e

fac iliti e s c ons i d e r e d i n t h i s p r opos e d ac ti on.

5. D egree of Im p rovem e nt in V i s i b i l i ty

E P A e s tim a t e d t h e d e g r e e o f v i s i b ili t y im p r o v e m e n t e x p ec t e d fr o m a B A R T c on t r o l

b a s e d on t h e d i f

f ere n ce b e t w ee n b a s e li n e v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s p r i o r t o c on t r o l s a nd v i s i b ili t y

72 See do c k et it e m G

- 13

, “ I m p a ct o f A m m on ia i n Fl y A s h o n it s B e n e f icial U s e

, ” M e m or a ndu m f r o m N a n c y J o n e s

a n d Ste p h e n

E d g e r t o n , E C / R

I n c orpor ate d

, t o A n ita L ee

, U

. S . E P A / R e g i o n 9

, A ug u s t 31

, 2010

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 39 o f 8 0 im p ac t s w it h c on t r o l s i n op era ti on. E P A us e d t h e C A L P U F F m od e l v e r s i on 5.8 73 t o d e t er mi n e

t h e b a s e li n e a nd pos t

- c o n t r o l v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s f o r a ll t h ree f

ac iliti e s. E P A f

o ll o w e d t h e m od e li n g

a pp r o ac h r e c o mm e nd e d i n t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s. W e d e v e l op e d a m od e li n g p r o t o c o l , u s e d

m a x im u m d a i l y e mi ss i ons a s a b a s e li n e

, a

pp li e d e s tim a t e d p erce n t r e du c ti o n s f o r a lt er n a ti v e

c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s, a n d us e d t h e C A L P U F F m od e l t o e s tim a t e v i s i b ili t y i m p ac t s a t Cl a ss I

area s w it h i n 300 k il o m e t er s.

a) M ode l i ng Pr o t o c ol

A m od e li n g p r o t o c o l w a s d e v e l op e d b y ou r c on t r a c t or 74 a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f N o r t h

C ar o li n a (UN C ) t h a t i s b a s e d l a r g e l y on t h e W R A P p r o t o c o l, 75 a lt hou g h t h e r e are a f e w

d i ffere n ce s b e t w ee n o u r p r o t o c o l a nd t h a t o f t h e W R A P

. B o t h p r o t o c o l s us e d m e t e o r o l o g i ca l

i npu t s f o r 2001, 2002, a n d 2003 b a s e d on t h e M e s os ca l e Mod e l v e r s i on 5 ( MM5 ) p r o g nos ti c

m e t e o r o l o g i ca l f

i e l ds..... E P A m e t e o r o l o g i ca l i np u t s d i ffere d f r o m t h e W R A P ’ s i n t h a t t h e

W R A P i n c o r

po ra t e d upp er a i r d a t a

, a s r ec o mm e n d e d b y t h e F e d e r a l L a nd M a n a g er s, a nd a l so

v a l u e s f o r so m e p ara m e t er s t h a t e n a b l e d s m oo t h er a nd m o re r ea li s ti c w i n d f i e l ds. Th e s e

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· C A L P U F F V er s i on 5.8, L e v e l: 070623

· P O S T U T I L V er s i on 1.5 6

. L e v e l: 070627

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· P r o j ec ti on : L a m b er

t C on f o r m a l C on i c ( L CC )

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d a i l y e mi ss i ons fr o m r e c e n t d a t a i n E P A’ s C A M D d a t a b a s e

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a nd g i v e t h e a c t u a l e mi ss i ons t h a t o cc u rre d. H o w e v er

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m d a i l y e mi ss i ons w a s

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, i ns t ea d o f a f

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SO 2 p re s e n t i n t h e f

l u e g a s, us i n g a n e s tim a ti on p r o ce du re d e v e l op e d b y t h e E l ec t r i c P o w er

R e s earc h I ns tit u te 80 ( E P R I ) . ( Es ti m a ti ng T

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v i s i b ili t y b e n e f it s o f SCR b y a r ound 5 p e r ce n t . Th i s eff e c t w a s no t i n c l ud e d f

o r C ho ll a , b eca

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.

I n t h e E P R I m e t hod, t h e SO 4 e mi ss i ons a dd e d f o r m od e li n g du e t o t h e c on v er s i on o f SO 2

v i a o x i d a ti on b y t h e SCR ca t a l y s t a r e ca l c u l a t e d a s f o ll o w s.

SO 4 e mi ss i ons = ( M a ss o f c o a l ) ¥ ( S f rac ti on )

¥ ( C onv er s i on t o SO 2 & t h e n t o SO 3 /H 2 SO 4 )

¥ ( E ff e c t o f c on t r o l s )

¥ (H 2 SO 4 p er S ) ¥ ( SO 4 p er H 2 SO 4 )

w h ere ( t a b l e a nd p a g e n u m b er s are fr o m t h e c it e d E P R I 2010 do c u m e n t ) :

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, l b / h r =

( 10 6

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, B t u /l b )

S frac ti on = % su l f

u r c o n t e n t o f c o a l /100

= [ % S ] / 10 0

C onv er s i on t o SO 2 & t h e n t o SO 3 /H 2 SO 4 :

S t o SO 2

0.95 e qu a ti on 4

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S C R c a t a l y s t SO 2 t o SO 3 /H

2 SO 4

0.67 % E P A

, F CPP p r opos a l , b a s e d on H it ac h i g u a r a n t ee 81

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o r eac h c on t r o l

ho t

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s cr ub b er )

c on t ro l b e f or e S CR : ho t

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= 1

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y ea r s o f m e t e o r o l og y a r e m od e l e d, t h ere are a t l ea s t t h ree w a y s t o us e t h e m od e l re su lt s : t h e

m a x im u m fr o m a m on g t h e 98 t h p er c e n til e s f o r t h e i nd i v i du a l y e ar s 2001, 2002, a nd 2003

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v a l u e s ) . Th e a v e ra g e a n d m er g e d v a l u e s are bo t h unb i a s e d e s tim a t e s o f t h e t r u e 98 t h p er c e n til e ;

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d i ffere d fr o m t h a t us e d b y A D E Q

. V i s i b ili t y im p a c t s m a y b e s im u l a t e d w it h C A L P U F F us i n g

e it h er t h e o l d o r t h e r e v i s e d I M PR OV E e qu a ti on f o r t ra ns l a ti n g po ll u t a n t c on ce n t ra ti ons i n t o

d ec i v i e w s ; t h e s e are re s p ec ti v e l y C A L P U F F v i s i b ili t y m e t hods 6 a nd 8 ( im p l e m e n t e d i n t h e

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- p r o c e ss o r) . M a n y B A R T a ss e ss m e n t s w ere p erf o r m e d b ef o re m e t hod 8 w a s

i n c o r po ra t e d i n t o C A L P U FF , so m e t hod 6 w a s g e n era l l y f o r p a s t a ss e ss m e n t s. H o w e v er

, i n t h i s

p r opos a l E P A i s p r im ar il y r e l y i n g on m e t hod 8. M e t hod 8 i s c u rre n t l y p r ef e rre d b y t h e F e d era l

L a nd M a n a g er s ; s i n ce t h e re v i s e d I M PR OV E e q u a ti on p erf o r m s b e tt e r a t e s tim a ti n g v i s i b ili t y. 83

F o r t h e f ac iliti e s e x a mi n e d i n t h i s p r opos a l , b a s e li n e im p ac t s us i n g m e t hod 6 w ou l d a v er a g e

a bou t 10 p er c e n t h i g h er t h a n t hos e us i n g m e t hod 8 (w it h a ra n g e o f 18 p e r c e n t l o w er t o28

p erce n t h i g h e r

d e p e nd i ng on fac ili t y a nd Cl a ss I a r ea ; t h e e f f e c t f o r a rea s s h o w i n g t h e l ar g e s t

b e n ef it fr o m c on t r o l w a s s imil ar t o t h e a v er a g e).

N a t ura l Ba ck ground C ond iti ons: A no t h er C A L P U FF c ho i ce i s w h e t h er t o c a l c u l a t e

v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s re l a ti v e t o a nnu a l a v e ra g e n a t u r a l c ond iti ons, o r re l a ti v e t o t h e b e s t 20 p er c e n t

o f n a t u ra l b a c k g r ound d a y s ; t h e s e m a y b e r e fe r re d t o a s “a” a nd “ b ”

. F o r b o t h “a” a nd “ b ”

, b ac k g r ound c on ce n t r a ti ons f o r e a c h Cl a ss I a r ea a re a v a il a b l e i n a F e d e r a l L a nd M a n a g er s ’

do c u m e n t. 84 E P A G u i d a n c e a ll o w s f o r t h e u s e o f e i t h er “ a ” o r “ b.” , 85 S i n ce t h e a nnu a l a v e r a g e

h a s w o r s e v i s i b ili t y a nd h i g h er d ec i v i e w s t h a n t h e b e s t d a y s do, a g i v e n f ac i li t y im p a c t w ill b e

s m a ll er re l a ti v e t o t h e a v er a g e t h a n it i s re l a ti v e t o t h e b e s t d a y s. Th a t i s, a f ac ili t y ’ s im p a c t w ill

s t a nd ou t l e ss und er

poo r er v i s i b ili t y c ond iti ons. Thus, m od e l e d fac ili t y im p ac t s a nd c on t r o l

b e n ef it s a pp e ar s m a ll er w h e n “ a ” i s us e d t h a n w h e n “ b ” i s us e d. I n t h i s p r opos a l , E P A i s re l y i n g

on “ b ” , b e s t 20 p e rce n t

, c ons i s t e n t w it h i n iti a l E P A rec o mm e n d a ti ons f o r B A R T a ss e ss m e n t s. 86

F o r t h e f ac iliti e s e x a mi n e d i n t h i s p r opos a l , b a s e li n e im p ac t s w ou l d a v e r a g e a bou t 20 p e r ce n t

l o w er us i n g b ac k g r ound “a” t h a n t hos e us i n g b ac k g r ound “ b ” ( w it h a ra n g e o f 17 p er c e n t t o 28

p erce n t l o w er

d e p e nd i n g on fac ili t y a nd Cl a ss I a r ea ; t h e e f f e c t f o r a rea s s h o w i n g t h e l ar g e s t

b e n ef it fr o m c on t r o l w a s s imil ar t o t h e a v er a g e)

.

C ons i d er i n g v i s i b ili t y m e t hod a nd c ho i ce o f b ac k g r ound t og e t h er

, t h e B A R T v i s i b ili t y

a ss e ss m e n t s re li e d on b y AD E Q us e d m e t hod “ 6 a ”

, t h e o l d I M PR OV E e q u a ti on, a nd im p ac t s

re l a ti v e t o a nnu a l a v e ra g e n a t u ra l c ond iti ons. Th i s i s a v a li d a pp r o a c h, a nd i s c ons i s t e n t w it h

E P A g u i d a n ce. 87 H o w e v er

, f o r t h i s p r opos a l , E P A c ons i d ere d a ll f ou r c o m b i n a ti ons o f

I M PR OV E e q u a ti on v er s i on a nd n a t u ra l b a c k g r o u nd : 6 a , 6b, 8 a

, a nd 8b. E P A p r im ar i l y r e li e d on

m e t hod “ 8b ”

, t h a t i s, t h e re v i s e d I M PR OV E e q u a ti on, a nd im p ac t s re l a ti v e t o t h e b e s t 20 p er c e n t

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b a s eli n e f or t h e 20 p e r ce n t b e s t v i s i b i l i t y d a y s f or c o m p a r i s o n t o t h e ‘ ca u s e or c o n t r i b u te ’ a pp lica b ili t y t h r e s h o l d s

. ”

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, Se p t e m b e r 27, 2 0 06 R e v i s i o n , E P A O AQ PSAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 45 o f 8 0 o f n a t u ra l b a c k g r ound d a y s . Th i s i s m os t c ons i s t e n t w it h ou r c u rre n t und er s t a nd i n g o f ho w b e s t

t o a ss e ss sou rce s p ec i f

i c v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s. C o m b i n i n g t h e d i f f ere n ce s i n v i s i b ili t y m e t hod a nd

c hos e n b ac k g r ound, f

o r t h e fac iliti e s e x a mi n e d i n t h i s p r opos a l , b a s e li n e im p ac t s w ou l d a v e r a g e

a bou t 15 p er c e n t l o w er u s i n g m e t hod “ 6 a ” t h a n t h os e us i n g m e t hod “ 8 b ” ( w it h a ra n g e o f 1

p erce n t t o 37 p e r c e n t l o w er d e p e nd i n g on fac ili t y a nd Cl a ss I a r e a ; t h e ef f ec t f o r a r ea s sho w i n g

t h e l a r g e s t b e n ef

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.



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1. A p a c he U ni ts 2 a nd 3

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us i n g t h e I n t e g ra t e d

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us e d i n d e v e l op i n g t h e s e c os t s are i n c l ud e d i n o u r c on t rac t o r ’ s re p o r t a nd it s a sso c i a t e d

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LN B +O FA S CR+

LN B +O FA LN B +O FA S NCR+

LN B +O FA S CR+

LN B +O FA

U n it O u t pu t ( M W) 204 204 204 204 204 204

C apac i t y Fac t or 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.71 0.71 0.71

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C ap i t a l R e co v e r y

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– P a g e 46 o f 8 0 are l o w e r t h a n t h e c os t v a l u e s su mm ar i z e d i n ou r c on t rac t o r ’ s c os t ca l c u l a t i on d e li v era b l e. 88

Es tim a t e s o f t h e a nnu a l e mi ss i on ra t e s us e d i n c os t ca l c u l a ti ons a r e su mm a r i z e d i n T a b l e 17.

T a b l e 17

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( 1) S e l e c ti o n o f

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A E PC O’ s B A R T a n a l y s i s us e d a 2002 t o 2007 tim e p er i od i n o r d er t o e s t a b li sh it s

b a s e li n e NO

x e mi ss i ons. I n o u r a n a l y s i s, w e d ec i d e d t o m a k e us e o f t h e m os t rece n t A c i d R a i n

P r o g r a m e mi ss i on d a t a r e po r t e d t o C A M D

, w h i c h

, a t t h e tim e t h a t w e b e g a n ou r a n a l y s i s i n

2011, w a s t h e t h r e e

- y e ar p er i od fr o m 2008 t o 20 1 0. B a s e d on C A M D do c u m e n t a ti on, no n e w

c on t r o l t ec hno l og y

b e y o n d t h e e x i s ti n g O F A s y s t e m h a s b ee n i ns t a ll e d on e it h er A p ac h e U n it 2

o r 3. W e c ons i d er t h e us e o f t h i s m o re re c e n t b a s e l i n e p er i od t o b e a rea li s ti c d e p i c ti on o f

a n ti c i p a t e d f

u t u re e mi ss i ons. 89

( 2) S C R C o nt r ol E ff i c ien c y

I n d e t er mi n i n g t h e c on t r o l eff

i c i e n c y o f SCR

, w e h a v e re li e d upon a n SCR l e v e l o f

p erf o r m a n ce o f 0.05 l b / MM B t u, w h i c h i s m o re s t r i n g e n t t h a n t h e l e v e l o f p erf o r m a n ce u s e d b y

AD E Q i n it s S I P

. I n t h e A p ac h e B A R T a n a l y s e s sub mitt e d t o AD E Q

, A E PC O i nd i ca t e d a n SCR

l e v e l o f p e r f o r m a n ce o f 0 .07 l b / MM B t u, bu t d i d no t p r ov i d e s it e- sp ec i f i c i n f o r m a ti on d e s cr i b i n g

ho w t h i s e mi ss i on ra t e w a s d e v e l op e d o r d i s c uss i n g w h y a m o re s t r i n g e n t 0

. 05 l b / MM B t u l e v e l

o f p erf o r m a n c e c ou l d no t b e a tt a i n e d. O u r c on t r o l c os t ca l c u l a ti ons f o r t h e SCR a nd L

N B w it h

O F A c on t r o l op ti ons are b a s e d upon t h e c on t r o l e f f i c i e n c y o f SCR (c o m b i n e d w it h L N B )

su mm ar i z e d i n T a

b l e 18.

88 See A pp e n d i x C o f W A 5

- 12 T a s k 8 Deli v e r a b le ( A p ac h e

- C h o lla

- C oro n a do B A R T A n a l y s i s R e por t ).do c x

89 B A R T G u i d el i n e s

, 40 C F R P a r t 51

, A pp e n d i x P

, Secti o n

I V

. D

. 4

. dAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 47 o f 8 0 T a b l e 18

- A p a c h e 2 a nd 3 : E P A ' s S CR (C o m b i n e d w i t h L N B ) C o n tr o l E f f i c i e n cy

U n it B a s e li n e

E mi ss i on

R a te 1

( l b / MM B t u) SCR

E mi ss i on

R a t e SCR

C on t r o l

E ff i c i e n c y ( p er c e n t a g e)

A p ac h e 2 0.371 0.05 87 %

A p ac h e 3 0.438 0.05 89 %

1 Th i s b a s e li n e e mi ss i on ra t e r e p re s e n t s op era ti on o f

O F A on l y

.

( 3) C a p a c it y Fa c t o r

A s no t e d p re v i ous l y

, A E PC O ca l c u l a t e d a nn u a l e mi ss i on e s tim a t e s f o r it s c on t r o l

s ce n ar i os, i n t ons p er y ea r , us i n g a nn u a l ca p ac i t y f ac t o r s d e v e l op e d i n t er

n a ll y ov er a n

unsp ec i f i e d tim e f r a m e. 90 Th e a nnu a l c a

p a c i t y f ac t o r s A E PC O us e d f

o r e a c h un it w ere 92 p e rce n t

(A p ac h e 2 )

, a nd 87 p e r c e n t (A p ac h e 3 )

. W e h a v e a l so ca l c u l a t e d a nn u a l e m i ss i on e s tim a t e s f o r

ou r c on t r o l s ce n ar i os us i n g c a p a c i t y f ac t o r s, bu t h a v e us e d i n f

o r m a ti on d e v e l op e d fr o m C A M D

i n f o r m a ti on, a nd ov er a m o re r e ce n t 2008 t o 20 1 1 tim e fra m e . Th e a nnu a l ca p a c i t y f ac t o r s w e

h a v e us e d f

o r e a c h un it a re 62 p e r ce n t (A p ac h e 2 )

, a nd 71 p er c e n t (A p ac h e 3 )

. W e rec o g n i z e t h a t

t h e s e ca p ac i t y f a c t o r s a re l o w er t h a n t hos e us e d b y A E PC O

, a nd t h a t b y us i n g t h e s e l o w er

ca p a c i t y f ac t o r s, o u r e s tim a t e s o f t o t a l a nnu a l e m i ss i ons (a nd c o r r e spond i n g l y

, t h e a nn u a l

e mi ss i on re du c ti ons ) f

o r eac h c on t r o l s ce n ar i o a r e l o w er t h a n A E PC O’ s e s t i m a t e s. 91 S i n ce c os teff e c ti v e n e ss ( $ /t on ) i s c a l c u l a t e d b y d i v i d i n g a n n u a l c on t r o l c os t s ( $ / y e a r) b y a nn u a l e mi ss i on

re du c ti ons ( t ons / y e a r )

, t h e us e o f e mi ss i on re d u c ti ons b a s e d on l o w er ca p a c i t y f a c t o r s w ill

i n crea s e t h e c os t p e r t on o f po ll u t a n t re du ce d.

W e h a v e e l e c t e d t o us e t h e ca p ac i t y f a c t o r s sp ec i f

i e d a bov e

, a s b a s e d on a 2008 t o 2011

tim e fra m e

, i n o r d e r t o r e m a i n c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e tim e fra m e us e d t o d e v e l op b a s e li n e a nnu a l

e mi ss i ons f

o r A p ac h e a n d t h e o t h er

po w e r p l a n t s t h a t are t h e sub

j ec t o f t o d a y ’ s p r opos e d ac ti on

.

( 4) S umm a ry

o f C o nt r ol C o s t E s ti m ate s

A su mm a r y o f

ou r c on t r o l c os t e s tim a t e s f o r t h e v a r i ous c on t r o l t ec hno l og y op ti ons

c ons i d ere d f

o r A p a c h e U n it s 2 a nd 3 i s i n T a b l e 19.

T a b l e 19

- A p a c h e U n i t s 2 a nd 3 : E P A ' s C o n t r o l C os t Su m m a ry

C o n t ro l O p ti on E m i s s i o n

Fact or E m i s s i o n R at e E m i s s i on s

R e m o v e d A n nu al C o s t C o s t

- e f f ect i v e n e s s ( $ /t o n )

90 A s l i s te d i n T a b le 2

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- 03 a n d B

- 04

, A

p a c h e B A R T A n a l y s e s

91 W e n o te t h at t h e r e a r e mu lti p l e r ea s o n s w h y o u r a n n u al e m i ss i o n e s t i m ate s ( a n d e s t i m ate s o f e m i ss i o n r e m o v al )

a r e l o w e r t h a n A E P C O ’ s a n d A D E Q ’ s e s t i m at e s

. W e a r e n o t i m p l y i n g t h at t h e u s e o f cap aci t y f act or i s t h e s o le

, or

e v e n d o m i n a n t , r ea s o n f

or t h i s d i ff

e r e n ce

, s i m

p l y t h at t h e u s e o f l o w e r cap aci t y f act or s w i l l r e s u lt i n l o w e r a n nu al

e m i s s i o n e s t i m ate s

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 48 o f 8 0 ( l b / MMB

tu ) ( l b / h r) ( t

p y ) ( t

p y ) ($ / y

r ) A v e I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m pr e v i ou s )

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. 37 1 85 9 2

, 33 3

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--

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A s s ee n i n T a

b l e 19, o u r ca l c u l a ti ons i nd i ca t e t h a t t h e SCR

- b a s e d c on t r o l op ti ons h a v e

a v er a g e c os t

- ef

f ec ti v e n e s s v a l u e s o f

$2,275 /t on t o $2,908 /t on, w h i c h fa ll s i n a ra n g e t h a t w e

c ons i d er c os t

- ef

f ec ti v e

. I n a dd iti on, ou r ca l c u l a ti o ns i nd i ca t e t h a t t h e SCR

- b a s e d c on t r o l op ti ons

h a v e a n i n c re m e n t a l c os t -ef f ec ti v e n e ss o f

$2,754 /t on t o $3,881 /t on, w h i c h i s a l so i n a ra n g e t h a t

w e w ou l d c ons i d er c os t

- e ffec ti v e

. A s a r e su lt , ou r a n a l y s i s o f t h i s fac t o r i n d i ca t e s t h a t t h e c os t s

o f c o m p li a n ce (a v e r a g e o r i n cre m e n t a l ) a r e no t su f f i c i e n t l y l ar g e t o w arr a n t e limi n a ti n g a n y o f

t h e c on t r o l op ti ons fr o m c ons i d era ti on.

b) V isi b i l i ty I m p r ove m e nt

Th e ov e r a ll v i s i b ili t y m o d e li n g a p p r o ac h w a s d e s cr i b e d a

bo v e ; a sp e c t s o f t h e m od e li n g

sp ec i f i c t o A p a c h e are d e s cr i b e d h e r e . E P A i s p r o pos i n g a NO

x B A R T d e t e r mi n a ti on on l y f

o r

A p ac h e un it s 2 a nd 3, bu t U n it 1 w a s a l so i n c l ud e d i n t h e m od e li n g r uns f o r g r ea t e r r e a li s m i n

a ss e ss i n g t h e f

u ll fac ili t y ’ s v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s. 92 F o r U n it 1 ’ s NO

x e mi ss i ons, AD E Q’ s e mi ss i on

fac t o r o f 0.56 l b / M M B t u w a s c o m b i n e d w it h t h e m a x im u m MM B t u / h r h ea t ra t e f

r o m E P A ' s

C A M D d a t a

b a s e f o r 20 0 8 t o 2010. Th e b a s e li n e e mi ss i ons us e d f o r t h e s e u n it s w ere t h e

m a x im u m d a i l y e mi ss i ons i n l b / h r fr o m 2008 t o 2010 ; t h e m a x im a o cc u rr e d i n ear l y

2008. Th e

b a s e ca s e r e f

l ec t s on l y O F A a s t h e c on t r o l i n p l a c e

.

E P A e v a l u a t e d L

N B

, S N CR ( i n c l ud i n g L

N B )

, a n d SCR ( i n c l ud i n g L N B ) a pp li e d t o bo t h

U n it s 2 a nd 3 ; a s m e n ti on e d a bov e t h e SCR

s im u l a ti on acc oun t e d f

o r t h e i n crea s e i n su l f

u r i c a c i d

e mi ss i ons du e t o ca t a l y s t o x i d a ti on o f SO 2

. S C R w a s a ssu m e d t o g i v e a c on t r o l eff e c ti v e n e ss o f

87 p erce n t a nd 89 p e r ce n t f o r U n it s 2 a nd 3, re s p e c ti v e l y ( l e ss t h a n 90 p e rc e n t du e t o t h e 0.05

l b / MM B t u NO

x l o w er l i mit a ssu m e d f o r SCR ) . Th e n i n e Cl a ss I a r ea s w i t h i n 300 k m o f A p ac h e

w ere m od e l e d ; t h e y a r e i n t h e s t a t e s o f Ar i z on a a n d N e w M e x i c o. Th e 98 t h p erce n til e o f d e lt a

d ec i v i e w s ov e r a ll t h ree y ea r s o f d a t a w a s c o m pu t e d f o r e ac h ar e a a nd e mi s s i on s ce n ar i o. T a b l e

20 sho w s t h e im p ac t f

o r t h e b a s e c a s e

, a nd t h e im p r ov e m e n t fr o m t h a t b a s e l i n e im p ac t w h e n

92 A p ac h e U n it 4

, w h ic h c on s i s t s o f f o u r s i m p l e

- c y cle g a s t u rb i n e s

, w a s n o t i n cl u d e d i n t h e m od el i n g b eca u s e i t s

NO x e m i s s i on s a r e le ss t h a n 1 p e r ce n t o f t h e e m i s s i on s o f un it s 2 a n d 3

, a n d a r e t h e r e f or e e x p ecte d t o h a v e a d

e

mi n imis e ff

ect o n m od ele d v i s i b ili t y i m p act s

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 49 o f 8 0 c on t r o l s are a

pp li e d, a ll i n d ec i v i e w s, f o r e a c h a re a. 93 N o t e t h a t i n a ll ca s e s t h e d ec i v i e w im p a c t s

are t h e “ d e lt a

d e c i v i e w s ” fr o m t h e C A L P U F F m od e l

, t h a t i s, t h e im p a i r m e n t a dd e d ( t h e “ d e lt a”)

w h e n po ll u ti on fr o m t h e fac ili t y i s a d d e d t o n a t u r a l b ac k g r ound c ond iti ons. Th e Cl a ss I a r ea

t y p e s a re N a ti on a l Monu m e n t (N M )

, W il d er n e ss Ar ea ( W A)

, a nd N a ti on a l P ar k (N P )

. A l so

sho w n are t h e c u m u l a ti v e d ec i v i e w s, t h e s im p l e s u m o f im p ac t s o r im p r ov e m e n t s ov er a ll t h e

Cl a ss I a rea s, a nd t h e n u m b er o f a r ea s w it h a b a s e li n e im p ac t o r im p r ov e m e n t o f a t l ea s t 0.5 dv.

Th e “ M a x

. ar e a

nu m b er o f

d a y s >= 0.5 d v ” r o w s ho w s t h e nu m b er o f d a y s t h a t v i s i b ili t y

im p a i r m e n t w a s g r e a t er t h a n o r e qu a l t o 0.5 dv, f o r t h e a r ea

h a v i n g t h e g re a t e s t m od e l e d

im p a i r m e n t; t h e n e x t r o w i s c o m p ara b l e bu t us e s 1 .0 dv a s t h e d a y

- c oun ti ng t h re sho l d. (N o t e t h a t

t h e “ I m p r ov e m e n t ” c o l u m ns sho w s t h e d i ffere n c e b e t w ee n a) t h e nu m b e r o f d a y s ov er

0.5 t h a t i s

t h e h i g h e s t a m o n g a ll t h e area s b ef o r e c on t r o l s, a n d b ) t h e nu m b er o f d a y s h i g h e s t a m o n g t h e

area s af t e r c on t r o l s ; t h e h i g h e s t nu m b er o f d a y s m a y o cc u r a t d i ff

e re n t a re a s b ef

o re a nd af t er

c on t r o l s. Th e im p r ov e m e n t s w it h i n a s i n g l e g i v e n area a r e sho w n i n t h e o t h er t a b l e

. )

F i n a l l y

, t h e t a

b l e i n c l ud e s t w o “ do ll ar s p er d ec i v i e w” 94 m ea su re s o f c os t

- e ff e c ti v e n e ss,

bo t h o f w h i c h t a k e t h e a n nu a l c os t o f t h e c on t r o l i n milli ons o f do ll ar s p er y ea r

, a nd d i v i d e b y a n

im p r ov e m e n t i n d ec i v i e w s. F o r t h e f i r s t m e t r i c

, “ $ / m a x dv ”

, c os t i s d i v i d e d b y t h e d ec i v i e w

im p r ov e m e n t a t t h e Cl a ss I ar e a w it h t h e g r e a t e s t i m p r ov e m e n t . Th e s e c on d m e t r i c

,

“ $ / c u m u l a ti v e dv ” , d i v i d e s c os t b y t h e c u m u l a ti v e d ec i v i e w im p r ov e m e n t

. I n a ss e ss i n g t h e

d e g ree o f v i s i b ili t y im p r o v e m e n t fr o m c on t r o l s, E P A re li e d h ea v i l y on t h e m a x im u m dv

im p r ov e m e n t a nd t h e n u m b er o f a r ea s sho w i n g i m p r ov e m e n t

, w it h c u m u l a ti v e im p r ov e m e n t

p r ov i d i n g a

supp l e m e n t a l m ea su re t h a t c o m b i n e s i n f o r m a ti on on t h e nu m b e r

o f a r ea s a nd on

i nd i v i du a l area im p r ov e m e n t . Th e do ll ar s p er d e c i v i e w m e t r i c s p r ov i d e d i n f o r m a ti on

supp l e m e n t a l t o t h e do ll ar s p er t on t h a t w a s c ons i d ere d i n t h e c os t f ac t o r

.

T a b l e 21 95 sho w s t h e nu m b er o f d a y s eac h a r ea e x p er i e n c e s m od e l e d v i s i b ili t y

im p a i r m e n t g r ea t e r t h a n o r e qu a l t o 0.5 dv, a nd a l so t h e “c u m u l a ti v e” nu m b er o f d a y s. Th i s i s

j us t t h e su m o f t h e i nd i v i du a l ar e a v a l u e s, a nd m a y no t a c t u a l l y re p r e s e n t d i s ti n c t ca l e nd ar d a y s

.

I n it s c o mm e n t s on Ar i z o n a’ s p r opos e d R e g i o n a l H a z e S I P

, t h e N a ti on a l P ar k S er v i c e

no t e d t h a t:

C o m p are d t o t h e t y

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ra n g e o f $2,000

- $10,0 0 0 p er t on o f po ll u t a n t r e m ov e d, sp e nd i n g milli ons o f

do ll ar s p er

d e c i v i e w ( dv ) t o im p r ov e v i s i b ili t y m a y a p p ear e x t ra o r d i n ar i l y

e x p e ns i v e

. H o w e v er , o u r c o m p il a ti on o f B A R T a n a l y s e s acr oss t h e U

. S

. re v ea l s

t h a t t h e a v e ra g e c os t p er dv p r opos e d b y e it h er a s t a t e o r a B A R T sou r c e i s $14

- $18 milli on. 96

93 T h e d eci v i e w i m

p act s a r e c op ie d f

r o m t h e s pr ea d s h eet “A Z R HF I P

_ T SD

_ v i s

_ s um m

_ ta b le s

. x l s x ”

, w h i c h i n t u r n

r elie s o n t h e s pr ea d s h eet “ ae p_ az

_ un it 2

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_ f

i n a l w i t h p l o t s 2

. x l s ” pr e p a r e d b y UN C

. 94 T h e c o s t s u s e d i n $ / d v r e l y o n t h e s pr ea d s h eet “ E GU B A R T C o s t s

_ A p ac h e

_ Ch o lla

_ C oron a do_ F I N A L 2

. x l s x ” al s o

pr e p a r e d b y UN C

. N o te t h at t h e c o s t s i n t h e l a tte r a r e s li g h t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n t h o s e i n t h e c o s t ta b le s i n t h i s T SD

,

w h i c h a s n o te d a bo v e do n o t i n cl u d e prop e r t y t a x a n d i n s u r a n ce

. 95 T h e n u m b e r o f d a y s a bo v e 0

. 5 a n d 1

. 0 d v a r e f ro m t h e s pr e a d s h eet “A Z R HF I P

_ T SD

_ A p ac h e

_ v i s x

. x l s x ”

96 A r iz o n a R e g i o n al Haze S I P

, A pp e n d i x E, P u

b lic P ro ce ss

, N P S Ge n e r al B A R T C o mm e n t s o n A D E Q B A R T

A n a l y s e s ( N o v e m

b e r 29, 20 10 ), p. 4

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 50 o f 8 0 W h il e w e do no t n ece ss a r i l y c ons i d e r $14 t o $18 milli on / dv a s b e i n g a r ea son a b l e ra n g e i n a ll

ca s e s, w e no t e t h a t f

o r a ll o f t h e NO

x c on t r o l op ti ons, i n c l ud i n g SCR , bo t h t h e $ /m a x dv a nd t h e

$ / c u m u l a ti v e dv are w e ll b e l o w t h i s ra n g e

.

Th e a r ea w it h t h e g r ea t e s t dv im p r ov e m e n t w a s t h e C h i r i ca hu a W il d er n e ss Ar ea ; t h e

im p r ov e m e n t fr o m L

N B w a s 0.5 dv, fr o m S N CR w a s 1 dv, a nd f r o m SCR w a s 1.6 dv. A n y o f

t h e s e im p r ov e m e n t s w o u l d c on t r i bu t e t o im p r ov e d v i s i b ili t y

, w it h SCR b e i n g t h e su

p er i o r op ti on

f o r v i s i b ili t y . T h e c o r re s p ond i n g c u m u l a ti v e im p r o v e m e n t s are 2.1, 3.8, a n d 6.5. B o t h S N CR a nd

SCR g i v e im p r ov e m e n t s e x cee d i n g 0.5 dv a t f ou r area s, bu t f

o r SCR t h e im p r ov e m e n t s a t t hos e

area s a l so e x cee d a f

u ll 1 dv. A s sho w n i n T a

b l e 2 1, t h e nu m b er

o f d a y s p e r y e ar w it h im p ac t s

a bov e 0.5 dv d e cr e a s e s b y 10 f o r L N B

, b y 23 f o r S N CR

, a nd b y

42 f o r S C R (c ons i d er i n g t h e

area w h e r e t h e d e cr e a s e i s t h e g r ea t e s t

, C h i r i ca h u a N a ti on a l Monu m e n t )

. T h e im p r ov e m e n t s

fr o m SCR are subs t a n ti a l l y g r e a t er t h a n f o r t h e o t h er ca nd i d a t e c on t r o l s. T h e m od e l e d d e g r ee o f

v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t s uppo r t s SCR a s B A R T f o r A p ac h e

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 51 o f 8 0 T a b l e 20

- A p a c h e U n i t s 2 a nd 3 : E P A ' s V i s i b i l i t y I m p r o v e m e n t f r o m N O x C o n tr o ls

base ctrl1_r ctrl2_r ctrl3s

C la s s I A r ea B a s eli n e

i m p act

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m L N B

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S N C R

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S CR

(d v )

Ch i r ic a h u a NM 3

. 4 1 0

. 4 4 0

. 8 2 1

. 5 1

Ch i r ic a h u a WA 3

. 4 6 0

. 5 3 1

. 0 0 1

. 5 9

Gali u ro WA 2

. 2 2 0

. 3 9 0

. 6 5 1

. 1 0

Gila WA 0

. 6 3 0

. 1 4 0

. 2 2 0

. 3 7

M azatzal WA 0

. 2 8 0

. 0 5 0

. 0 9 0

. 1 4

M o un t B al d y WA 0

. 2 8 0

. 0 7 0

. 1 1 0

. 1 8

Sa g u a ro NP 2

. 4 9 0

. 3 8 0

. 6 6 1

. 1 6

Sie rr a A n c h a WA 0

. 2 9 0

. 0 6 0

. 1 0 0

. 1 4

S u p e r s titi o n WA 0

. 6 1 0

. 1 0 0

. 1 9 0

. 3 1

C u m u lat i v e dv 13

. 6 7 2

. 1 4 3

. 8 3 6

. 5 1

# a r ea s >= 0 .5 6 1 4 4

M a x

. a r ea n

u m b e r o f d a y s

>= 0

. 5 dv 12 8 1 0 2 3 4 2

M a x

. a r ea n

u m b e r o f d a y s

>= 1

. 0 dv 7 5 1 2 2 5 4 0

$ / m a x d v

, m il l i o ns $4

. 8 $6

. 0 $8

. 2

$ /cu m u la ti v e d v

, mi ll io ns $1

. 2 $1

. 6 $2

. 0

T a b l e 21

- A p a c h e U n i t s 2 a nd 3 : E P A ' s V i s i b i l i t y I m p r o v e m e n t D ays f r o m N O x C o n tr o ls

Base ctrl1_r ctrl2_r ctrl3s

C la s s I A r e a B a s eli n e

i m p act

(d a y s ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m L N B

(d a y s ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S N C R

(d a y s ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S CR

(d a y s )

Ch i r ic a h u a N M 12 8 1 0 2 1 4 2

Ch i r ic a h u a W A 11 6 8 2 3 3 9

Gali u ro W A 4 6 7 1 0 2 0

Gila W A 1 2 5 8 1 1

M azatzal W A 3 2 3 3

M o un t B al d y W A 2 1 1 2

Sa g u a ro NP 8 0 6 1 3 1 9

Sie rr a A n c h a W A 2 1 1 2

S u p e r s titi o n W A 9 2 5 8

C u m u lat i v e #d a y s

>= 0

. 5 39 8 4 1 8 5 14 6

c) E P A ’s B A RT De t e rm i n a t

i on

I n c ons i d er i n g t h e r e su lt s o f t h e f i v e

- fac t o r a n a l y s i s, w e no t e t h a t t h e r e m a i n i n g us ef u l

li fe o f t h e sou r c e

, a s i nd i ca t e d p r e v i ous l y b y t h e p l a n t ec ono mi c li fe o f A p a c h e U n it s 2 a nd 3, i s

i n c o r po ra t e d i n t o c on t r o l c os t ca l c u l a ti ons a s a 2 0

- y ea r a m o r ti z a ti on p er i od. I n a dd iti on, t h e

p re s e n c e o f e x i s ti n g po ll u ti on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y i s ref l ec t e d i n t h e c os t a n d v i s i b ili t y f a c t o r s a s a

re su lt o f s e l ec ti on o f t h e b a s e li n e p er i od f o r c os t c a l c u l a ti ons a nd v i s i b ili t y m od e li n g

. F o r

A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd 3, a b a s e li n e p er i od ( 2008 t o 2010 ) w a s s e l e c t e d t h a t r ef l ec t s t h e c u r

r e n t l y

e x i s ti n g po ll u ti on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y ( O F A)

. I n e x a mi n i n g e n e r g y a nd no n

- a i r qu a li t y im p a c t s,

w e no t e c ert a i n po t e n ti a l im p ac t s re su lti n g f r o m t h e us e o f a mm on i a i n j e c ti on a sso c i a t e d w it h t h eAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 52 o f 8 0 S N CR a nd SCR c on t r o l op ti ons, bu t do no t c ons i d er t h e s e im p a c t s su ff i c i e n t e nou g h t o w ar

r a n t

e limi n a ti n g a n y

o f t h e a v a il a

b l e c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s.

O u r c ons i d e r a ti on o f

d e g ree o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t f o c us e s p r im ar i l y o n t h e

im p r ov e m e n t fr o m b a s e ca s e im p ac t s a sso c i a t e d w it h eac h c on t r o l op ti on

. W h il e eac h o f t h e

a v a il a b l e NO

x c on t r o l o p ti ons ac h i e v e s so m e d e g r ee o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

, w e c ons i d e r t h e

im p r ov e m e n t a sso c i a t e d w it h t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t op ti on, SCR w i t h L N B a n d O F A

, t o b e

subs t a n ti a l

. O u r c ons i d e r a ti on o f c os t o f c o m p li a n ce f o c u s e s p r im ar i l y

on t h e c os t -e f

f e c ti v e n e ss

o f eac h c on t r o l op ti on, a s m ea su re d i n c os t p e r t o n a nd i n cre m e n t a l c os t p e r t on o f eac h c on t r o l

op ti on. D e sp it e t h e fac t t h a t t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t op t i on, SCR w it h L N B a nd O F A

, i s t h e m os t

e x p e ns i v e o f t h e a v a il a

b l e c on t r o l op ti ons, w e c o n s i d er it c os t -ef f ec ti v e on a n a v e ra g e b a s i s a s

w e ll a s on a n i n c r e m e n t a l b a s i s w h e n c o m p a re d t o t h e n e x t m os t s t r i n g e n t op ti on, S N CR w it h

L N B a nd O F A

.

A s a re su lt

, w e c ons i d er t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t a v a il a b l e c on t r o l op ti on, SCR w it h L N B a nd

O F A

, t o b e bo t h c os t

- ef

f ec ti v e a nd t o r e su lt i n subs t a n ti a l v i s i b il i t y im p r o v e m e n t

, a nd t h a t t h e

e n e r g y a nd n o n -a i r

q u a lit y im p ac t s a re no t su ff i c i e n t t o w arra n t e limi n a ti n g it fr o m c ons i d era ti on.

Th eref o re

, t h e re su lt s o f ou r f

i v e- f ac t o r a n a l y s i s i nd i ca t e t h a t NO

x B A R T f o r A p ac h e U n it s 2 a nd

3 i s SCR w it h L

N B a nd O F A

.

H o w e v e r

, w e no t e t h a t t h e B A R T g u i d e li n e s s t a t e t h a t:

Ev e n i f t h e c on t r o l t e c h n o l o g y i s c os t

- e ff e c ti v e

, t h ere m a y b e ca s e s w h e re t h e i ns t a ll a ti on

o f c on t r o l s w ou l d a f

fec t t h e v i a

b ili t y o f c on ti nu e d p l a n t op era ti ons. [

... ] Y o u m a y t a k e

i n t o c ons i d era ti on t h e c o nd iti ons o f t h e p l a n t a nd t h e ec ono mi c e ff e c t s o f r e qu i r i n g t h e

us e o f a c on t r o l t ec hno l og y

. W h ere t h e s e e ff e c t s a re j udg e d t o h a v e a

s e v e r e im p ac t on

p l a n t op era ti ons y ou m a y c ons i d er t h e m i n t h e s e l e c ti on p r o ce ss, bu t y ou m a y w i sh t o

p r ov i d e a n e c ono mi c a n a l y s i s t h a t d e m ons t ra t e s, i n su ff i c i e n t d e t a il f

o r pub li c re v i e w

, t h e

sp ec i f i c e c ono mi c e f

fec t s , p ara m e t e r s, a nd r ea son i n g .” 97

A s e x p l a i n e d i n S ec ti on I X

. C o f t h e F e d e r a l R e g i s t er no ti ce f o r t h i s p r opo s e d ac ti on,

b eca us e A E PC O i s a “ s m a ll e n ti t y ”

, a s d ef i n e d u n d er t h e R e g u l a t o r y F l e x i b ili t y A c t

, w e h a v e

c ondu c t e d a n i n iti a l a ss e s s m e n t o f t h e po t e n ti a l a d v er s e im p ac t s on A E P C O o f re qu i r i n g SCR

w it h L N B a nd O F A

. U s i n g pub li c l y a v a il a b l e i n f o r m a ti on, E P A e s tim a t e s t h a t t h e a nnu a li z e d

c os t o f re qu i r i n g SCR i n U n it s 1 a nd 2 w ou l d li k e l y b e i n t h e ra n g e o f 3 p e r ce n t o f A E PC O’ s

a ss e t s a nd b e t w ee n 6 a n d 7 p erce n t o f A E PC O’ s a nnu a l s a l e s. Th e p r o j ec t e d c os t s o f SCR w it h

L N B a nd O F A a r e a

pp r ox im a t e l y

$12 milli on p er y ea r . Th i s e x cee ds A E PC O’ s n e t m a r g i ns o f

$9.5 milli on i n 2010 a nd $1.9 milli on i n 2011. 98 S ee T a b l e 22 f o r m o r e i n f

o r m a ti on.

97 70 F R 39 1 7 1

98 See D oc k e t I t e m G

- 12 A ri zona E l ec t r i c Po w e r C oop e r a ti v e, I nc. A nnua l R e po r t E l e c t r i c f

o r Y e a r

E nd i n g D ece m

be r 31, 2 01 1 s ub m itt e d t o A ri z ona C o r p o r a t i on C o mm i ss i on Ut i l i ti e s D i v i s i on, a l s o

a v a il a b l e a t

h tt p : / / www .a z cc. g o v

/ D i v i s i on s / U t i l i ti e s / A n n

ua l % 20 R e po r t s / 2 011 / E l e c t ri c / A r i z on a

_ E l e c t r i c_ P o w e r

_ C oo

pe r a ti v e_ I nc.pdf

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 53 o f 8 0 T a b l e 22

- R e l a t i o n s h i p b et w ee n E m i ss i o n C o n tr o l C os t s a nd A E P C O F i n a n c i a l D a ta

C os t o f c o n tr o l s ( S CR o p t i o n )

A p ac h e 2 : $5,870,227

A p ac h e 3 : $6,101,103

To t a l: $11,971,330

A E P C O

F i n a n c i a l s 2010 2011

To t a l

R e v e nu e : * $207,377,079 $169,668,330

N e t M a r g i n : * $9,503,556 $1,855,188

To t a l A ss e t s : * $350,634,866

c os t/ re v e nu e 5.8 % 7.1 %

c os t/ a ss e t s 3.4 %

n e t m a r g i nc os t $ ( 2,467,774 ) $ ( 10,116,142 )

* F r o m D o c k e t I t e m H

- 1

- A ri z ona E l e c t r i c Po w e r C o o p e r a ti v e, I nc. A nnua l R e p o r t E l e c t r i c f

o r Y e a r

E nd i n g D ece m

be r 31, 2 01 1 s ub m itt e d t o A ri z ona C o r p o r a t i on C o mm i ss i on Ut i l i ti e s D i v i s i on

I n a dd iti on t o c ondu c ti ng t h i s i n iti a l ec ono mi c im p ac t a ss e ss m e n t

, w e re q u e s t e d

i n f o r m a ti on fr o m A E PC O on t h e ec ono mi c s o f o p era ti n g A p a c h e G e n e r a t i n g S t a ti on a nd w h a t

im p ac t t h e i ns t a ll a ti on o f SCR m a y h a v e on t h e e c ono mi c s o f op era ti n g A p ac h e G e n e r a ti n g

S t a ti on. O n J un e 29, 20 1 2, w e r e ce i v e d a d e s c r i p ti on o f

p l a n t c ond iti ons a nd po t e n ti a l ec ono mi c

eff e c t s a nd a re p l a c i n g t h i s i n f o r m a ti on i n t h e do c k e t f

o r t h i s ac ti on. 99 W e w i ll c ons i d er t h i s

i n f o r m a ti on a nd a n y a dd i ti on a l i n f o r m a ti on rece i v e d du r i ng t h e c o mm e n t p er i od a s p art o f ou r

f i n a l ac ti on. I f

o u r a n a l y s i s o f t h i s i n f

o r m a ti on i nd i ca t e s t h a t i ns t a ll a ti on o f SCR w ill h a v e a

s e v ere im p a c t on t h e e c o no mi c s o f op era ti n g A p a c h e G e n era ti n g S t a ti on, w e w ill i n c o r po ra t e

su c h c ons i d e r a ti ons i n ou r s e l ec ti on o f B A R T

.

N on e t h e l e ss, b a s e d on t h e a v a il a b l e c on t r o l t ec h n o l o g i e s a nd t h e f i v e f ac t o r s d i s c uss e d

a bov e , E P A i s p r opos i n g t o re qu i re A p ac h e G e n er a ti n g S t a ti on t o m ee t a n e mi ss i on li m it f o r NO

x

on U n it s 2 a nd 3 o f

0.050 l b / MM B t u. E ac h o f t h e s e e mi ss i on limit s i s b a s e d on a r o lli n g 30-

bo il er- op e r a ti ng

- d a y a v e r a g e

.

2. C h o lla U ni ts 2, 3 a nd 4

a) C o s ts of C o m p l i a n ce

O u r g e n e ra l a

pp r o ac h t o ca l c u l a ti n g t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce i s d e s cr i b e d i n s ec ti on

II I

. A .1 a bov e

. I ssu e s un i qu e t o C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4 are e x p l a i n e d h ere i n. A s m e n ti on e d i n t h e

F e d e ra l R e g i s t er

no ti c e f o r t h i s p r opos a l

, c on t r o l c os t s w ere d e v e l op e d b y ou r c on t r a c t o r us i n g

99 D o c k et I t e m C

- 16

, L ette r f

ro m M i c h elle F r eea r k ( A E P C O ) t o De bor a h J ord a n ( E P A ), A E P C O ’ s C o mm e n t s o n

B A R T f or A p a c h e Ge n e r at i ng Stati o n

, J un e 29

, 2012

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 54 o f 8 0 t h e I n t e g ra t e d P l a nn i n g Mod e l ( I P M ) B a s e C a s e v4.10 (A u g us t 2010 ) . T h e sp ec i f i c p ara m e t er s

a nd a ssu m p ti ons us e d i n d e v e l op i n g t h e s e c os t s ar e i n c l ud e d i n ou r c on t r ac t o r’ s re p o r t a nd it s

a sso c i a t e d sp r ea dsh e e t

. A su mm a r y o f c a p it a l a n d op era ti n g c os t s i s i n c l ud e d i n T a b l e 23.

Th e ca p it a l r ec ov e r y f

a c t o r ( 0.094 ) li s t e d a

bov e i s b a s e d upon a n i n t e r e s t ra t e o f 7 % ov e r

a 20 y e ar e qu i p m e n t li fe t im e

. P l ea s e no t e t h a t t h i s v a l u e do e s no t i n c l ud e p r op ert y t a x ( 0.90 %)

a nd i nsu ra n c e ( 0.30 % )

, w h i c h w e r e i n c l ud e d b y ou r c on t r a c t o r i n t h e i r c a l c u l a ti on o f ca p it a l

rec ov e r y f

a c t o r

. A s a re s u lt

, t h e a nnu a li z e d ra t e ( $ / y r) a nd t o t a l a nnu a l c os t ( $ / y r ) li s t e d i n t h e

t a b l e a bov e are l o w er t h a n t h e c os t v a l u e s su mm a r i z e d i n ou r c on t rac t o r’ s c os t ca l c u l a ti on

d e li v era b l e. 100 Es tim a t e s o f t h e a nnu a l e mi ss i on ra t e s us e d i n c os t ca l c u l a ti on s are su mm ar i z e d i n

T a b l e 24

.

100 See A pp e n d i x C o f W A 5

- 12 T a s k 8 Deli v e r a b le ( A p ac h e

- C h o lla

- C oro n a do B A R T A n a l y s i s R e por t ).do c xAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 55 o f 8 0 T a b l e 23

- C h o ll a 2, 3, a nd 4 : E P A ' s C o n tr o l C o s t E s t i m a tes

C ho ll a 2 C ho ll a 3 C ho ll a 4

S NCR S CR S NCR S CR S NCR S CR

U n it O u t pu t ( M W) 290 290 312 312 414 414

C apac i t y Fac t or 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.72 0.72

C ap i t a l C o st 5,778,000 53,939,914 6,246,000 60,563,867 8,280,000 73,858,811

C ap i t a l R e co v e r y

Fac t or 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094

A nnua li z ed R a t e ( $ / y r) 545,402 5,091,546 589,578 5,716,801 781,573 6,971,749

F i xed O& M ( $ / y e a

r) 120,277 363,780 124,352 362,052 144,686 362,400

$ / k W

- yr 0.41 1.25 0.40 1.16 0.35 0.88

$ / M W

- yr 415 1,254 399 1,160 349 875

V a ri a b l e O& M ( $ / y ea r) 1,816,639 2,019,701 1,816,580 2,034,278 2,258,790 2,560,647

$ / M Wh 0.97 1.07 0.89 0.99 0.87 0.98

A nnua l O & M ( $ / ye a r) 1,936,916 2,383,481 1,940,933 2,396,330 2,403,476 2,923,047

T o t a l A nnu a l C o s t

( $ / y ea r) 2,482,318 7,475,028 2,530,511 8,113,131 3,185,049 9,894,796

T a b l e 24

- C h o ll a 2, 3, a nd 4 : E P A ' s A nnu a l E m i ss i o n E s t i m a tes

C on t ro l O p ti on P e rce nt E mi s s i on

F a c t or H e a t R a te A nnua l

C apac i t y E mi s s i on R a te

R educ t i on (l b / M M B t u) ( M M B t u / h r) F a c t or (l b / hr) (t p y)

C ho l l a 2

B a s e l i ne ( L NB + O F A)

-- 0.295 3,022 0.74 892 2,890

S NCR + L NB + O FA 30% 0.21 3,022 0.74 624 2,023

S CR + L NB + O FA 83% 0.05 3,022 0.74 151 490

C ho l l a 3

B a s e l i ne ( L NB + O F A)

-- 0.254 3,480 0.75 885 2,908

S NCR + L NB + O FA 30% 0.18 3,480 0.75 620 2,036

S CR + L NB + O FA 80% 0.05 3,480 0.75 174 572

C ho l l a 4

B a s e l i ne ( L NB + O F A)

-- 0.260 4,399 0.72 1144 3,609

S NCR + L NB + O FA 30% 0.18 4,399 0.72 801 2,526

S CR + L NB + O FA 81% 0.05 4,399 0.72 220 694Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 56 o f 8 0 Th ere are s e v e r a l a sp e c t s o f ou r a n a l y s i s o f t h i s f

a c t o r t h a t d i ff

e r fr o m A D E Q’ s a nd A PS ’

a n a l y s i s a nd w e d i s c uss t h e m os t im po r t a n t o f t h e s e b e l o w

.

( 1) S e l e c ti o n o f

B a s e l ine P e r i o d

A PS ’ B A R T a n a l y s i s us e d a 2001

- 03 tim e p er i od i n o r d er t o e s t a b li sh it s b a s e li n e NO

x

e mi ss i ons. A s no t e d p re v i ous l y

, t h e NO

x c on t r o l t ec hno l og y p re s e n t on C ho ll a U n it s 2 t h r ou g h 4

du r i n g t h a t tim e p e r i od w a s c l os e-c oup l e d ov er f i r e a i r ( C O F A)

. A PS h a s s i n ce i ns t a ll e d l o wNO

x bu r n e r s w it h s e p a ra t e d ov er f i r e a i r ( S O F A ) o n C ho ll a U n it s 2 t h r ou g h 4. I n o r d er t o

p r op er l y c ons i d e r t h e s e c ond B A R T f a c t o r ( po ll u ti on c on t r o l e qu i p m e n t i n us e a t t h e sou r c e) a nd

t o e nsu re t h a t a c t u a l c on d iti ons a t t h e p l a n t w ere re f l ec t e d i n ou r b a s e li n e NO

x e mi ss i ons, w e

d ec i d e d t o m a k e u s e o f t h e m os t rece n t A c i d R a i n P r o g r a m e mi ss i on d a t a r e po r t e d t o C A M D

,

w h i c h, a t t h e tim e t h a t w e b e g a n ou r a n a l y s i s i n 2011, w a s t h e t h r e e

- y e ar p er i od fr o m 2008 t o

2010. B a s e d on C A M D d o c u m e n t a ti on, t h e l o w- NO

x bu r n e r s w e r e i ns t a ll e d on t h e C ho ll a un it s

a t d i ffe r e n t tim e s du r i n g 2008 a nd 2009, m a k i n g i t n ece ss a r y f o r us t o c l e a r l y

d i s ti n g u i sh

b e t w ee n t h e p re

- L

N B a n d pos t

- L

N B p e r i ods o f e mi ss i on d a t a f o r e a c h un it

.

Th e us e o f a 2 008 t o 2010 b a s e li n e w a s, ho w e v e r

, c o m p li ca t e d b y t h e f ac t t h a t t h e C ho ll a

p l a n t op era t e s un d er a n e w c o a l c on t r ac t f o r L ee R a n c h / E l S e g undo c o a l

, w h i c h i s a h i g h e r NO

x e mitti n g c o a l t h a n w h a t w a s p re v i ous l y us e d. 101 Th i s c o a l c on t r a c t i nd i ca t e s t h a t s t ea d i l y

i n crea s i n g mi n im u m qu a n titi e s o f c o a l sh a ll b e d e li v ere d, s t arti n g w it h 325,000 t ons i n 2006 a nd

up t o 3,700,000 t ons i n 2 010. Th i s g r a du a l t ra ns iti on t o t h e n e w er , h i g h e r

- NO

x e mitti n g c o a l

sou rce m a d e it d i ff

i c u lt t o d e t er

mi n e t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h a p arti c u l ar y e ar’ s e mi ss i ons w ere

re p re s e n t a ti v e o f a n ti c i p a t e d a nnu a l e mi ss i ons. I n t h e a bs e n c e o f m o r e d e t a i l e d f u e l us a g e r e c o r ds

on a p er- un it b a s i s, it w a s no t poss i b l e f o r us t o i d e n ti f

y w h i c h un it s m a y

h a v e op era t e d us i n g t h e

n e w er c o a l du r i n g t h e 2 0 06 t o 2010 t ra ns iti on p er i od t o t h e n e w er c o a l t y p e

. W e no t e , ho w e v er

,

t h a t t h e c o a l c on t r ac t sp e c i f i ca l l y s t a t e s t h a t

, f

o r 2 010 t o 2024, no l a t er t h a n J u l y 1 o f e ac h y e ar

,

t h e b u y e r sh a ll i nd i ca t e t h e a nnu a l t onn a g e f o r t h e f o ll o w i n g c a l e nd a r y e a r

, a nd t h a t i n no ca s e

sh a ll t h e a nnu a l t onn a g e b e l e ss t h a n 3,700,000 t ons. A s a re su lt , 2011 re p r e s e n t s t h e f i r s t

c o m p l e t e ca l e n d ar y e ar a t w h i c h w e c a n b e c ert a i n t h a t t h e C ho ll a p l a n t op era t e d a t t h e n e w c o a l

c on t rac t ’ s “f

u ll ” mi n im u m pu rc h a s e q u a n ti t y o f 3

, 700,000 t ons p er y ea r

.

S i n ce 2011 A c i d R a i n P r o g r a m e mi ss i on d a t a b e c a m e a v a il a

b l e d u r i n g t h e i n t er

v e n i n g

tim e b e t w ee n t h e s t a r t o f ou r a n a l y s i s a nd ou r p r o p os e d ac ti on t od a y

, w e h a v e s e l ec t e d 2011 a s

t h e tim e p er i od f

o r e s t a b li sh i n g b a s e li n e a nnu a l NO

x e mi ss i ons. A lt hou g h t h i s re p re s e n t s on l y a

s i n g l e y e ar

o f d a t a

, w e b e li e v e t h e us e o f t h i s m o r e rece n t b a s e li n e p e r i od r e p re s e n t s t h e m os t

rea li s ti c d e p i c ti on o f a n t i c i p a t e d a nn u a l e mi ss i ons, a s it i s t h e on l y tim e p e r i od t h a t e nsu re s e a c h

o f t h e C ho ll a

un it s i s op era ti n g us i n g t h e n e w c o a l a nd L N B w it h S O F A

.

( 2) S C R C o nt r ol E ff i c ien c y

I n d e t er mi n i n g t h e c on t r o l eff

i c i e n c y o f SCR

, w e h a v e re li e d upon a n SCR l e v e l o f

p erf o r m a n ce o f 0.05 l b / MM B t u, w h i c h i s m o re s t r i n g e n t t h a n t h e l e v e l o f p erf o r m a n ce u s e d b y

AD E Q i n it s S I P

. I n t h e C ho ll a B A R T a n a l y s i s s u b mitt e d t o AD E Q

, A PS i nd i ca t e d a n SCR l e v e l

o f p erf o r m a n c e o f 0.07 l b / MM B t u, bu t d i d no t p r ov i d e s it e- sp ec i f i c i n f o r m a ti on d e s cr i b i n g h o w

101 A c o p y o f t h e c o al c o n t r act

, i n cl u d i n g ob li g ati o n a m ou n t s a n d c o al q u ali t y

, c a n b e f ou n d i n D o c k et

I t e m B

- 09

,

“ A dd iti o n al A P S Ch o lla B A R T r e s po n s e”

, A pp e n d i x B

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 57 o f 8 0 t h i s e mi ss i on ra t e w a s d e v e l op e d o r d i s c uss i n g w h y a m o r e s t r i n g e n t 0.05 l b / MM B t u l e v e l o f

p erf o r m a n ce c ou l d no t b e a tt a i n e d. O u r c on t r o l c o s t ca l c u l a ti ons f o r t h e SCR a nd L

N B w it h O F A

c on t r o l op ti ons are b a s e d upon t h e SCR c on t r o l eff i c i e n c i e s su mm ar i z e d i n T a b l e 25. Th e s e

c on t r o l eff

i c i e n c i e s r ef

l ec t t h e e mi ss i on re du c ti ons a sso c i a t e d w it h c on t r o ll i n g f r o m a n a nn u a l

a v er a g e b a s e li n e e mi ss i on ra t e t h a t r e p re s e n t s L N B w it h O F A (a s d e s cr i b e d p re v i ous l y ) do w n t o

a n SCR e mi ss i on ra t e o f

0.05 l b / MM B t u.

T a b l e 25

- C h o ll a U n i t s 2, 3, a nd 4 : E P A ' s S CR C o n tr o l E f f i c i e n cy

U n it B a s e li n e

E mi ss i on

R a te 1

( l b / MM B t u) SCR

E mi ss i on

R a t e SCR C on t r o l

E ff i c i e n c y ( p er c e n t a g e)

C ho ll a 2 0.295 0.05 83 %

C ho ll a 3 0.254 0.05 80 %

C ho ll a 4 0.260 0.05 81 %

1 A s no t e d p re v i ous l y

, t h i s b a s e li n e e mi ss i on ra t e

ref l e c t s t h e i ns t a ll a ti on o f L

N B + O F A

( 3) C a p a c it y Fa c t o r

A s no t e d p re v i ous l y

, A PS ca l c u l a t e d a nn u a l e mi ss i on e s tim a t e s f o r it s c on t r o l s ce n ar i os,

i n t ons p er y e ar , us i n g a n nu a l ca p a c i t y fac t o r s b a s e d on A c i d R a i n P r o g ra m d a t a fr o m C A M D

ov er a 2001 t o 2006 tim e fra m e. 102 Th e a nnu a l ca p ac i t y f a c t o r s A PS us e d f

o r eac h un it w e re 91

p erce n t ( C ho ll a

2 ) , 86 p e rce n t ( C ho ll a

3 )

, a nd 93 p erce n t ( C ho ll a 4 )

. W e h a v e a l so c a l c u l a t e d

a nnu a l e mi ss i on e s tim a t e s f o r ou r c on t r o l s c e n a r i os us i n g ca p ac i t y f a c t o r s d e v e l op e d f

r o m

C A M D i n f

o r m a ti on, bu t h a v e i ns t ea d us e d a m o r e rece n t 2008 t o 2011 tim e fra m e . Th e a nn u a l

ca p a c i t y f ac t o r s w e h a v e us e d f

o r e ac h un it a r e 74 p erce n t ( C ho ll a 2 ) , 75 p e rce n t ( C ho ll a

3 )

, a nd

71 p erce n t ( C ho ll a

4 )

. W e rec o g n i z e t h a t t h e s e c a p ac i t y fac t o r s a r e l o w er t h a n t hos e us e d b y

A PS

, a nd t h a t b y

us i n g t h e s e l o w er ca

p ac i t y f a c t o r s, ou r e s tim a t e s o f t o t a l a nnu a l e mi ss i ons (a nd

c o rre spond i n g l y

, t h e a n n u a l e mi ss i on re du c ti ons ) f o r e a c h c on t r o l s c e n ar i o are l o w e r t h a n A PS ’

e s tim a t e s. 103 S i n ce c os t -e f f e c ti v e n e ss ( $ /t on ) i s ca l c u l a t e d b y d i v i d i n g a nn u a l c on t r o l c os t s

( $ / y e ar) b y a nnu a l e mi ss i on re du c ti ons ( t ons / y e a r)

, t h e us e o f e mi ss i on re d u c ti ons b a s e d on

l o w er ca p ac i t y f ac t o r s w i ll i n crea s e t h e c os t p er t o n o f po ll u t a n t re du ce d.

W e h a v e e l e c t e d t o us e t h e ca p ac i t y f a c t o r s sp ec i f

i e d a bov e

, a s b a s e d on a 2008 t o 2011

tim e fra m e

, i n o r d e r t o r e m a i n c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e tim e fra m e us e d t o d e v e l op b a s e li n e a nnu a l

102 A s l i s te d i n T a b le 2

- 1 i n D o c k et I t e m s B

- 06 t h rou gh B

- 08

, Ch o lla B A R T A n a l y s e s

103 W e n o te t h at t h e r e a r e mu lti p l e r ea s o n s w h y o u r a n n u al e m i ss i o n e s t i m ate s ( a n d e s t i m ate s o f e m i ss i o n r e m o v al )

a r e l o w e r t h a n A P S ’ a n d A D E Q ’ s e s t i m ate s

. W e a r e n o t i m p l y i ng t h at t h e u s e o f cap aci t y f act or i s t h e s o le

, or e v e n

do m i n a n t , r ea s o n f

or t h i s d i ff

e r e n ce

, s i m

p l y t h at t h e u s e o f l o w e r cap aci t y f act or s w ill r e s u lt i n l o w e r a n nu a l

e m i s s i o n e s t i m ate s

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 58 o f 8 0 e mi ss i ons f

o r C ho ll a a nd t h e o t h er

po w e r p l a n t s t h a t are t h e sub

j ec t o f t od a y ’ s p r opos e d

ac ti on. 104

( 4) S umm a ry o f C o nt r ol C o s t s

A su mm a r y o f

ou r c on t r o l c os t e s tim a t e s f o r t h e v a r i ous c on t r o l t ec hno l og y op ti ons

c ons i d ere d i s i n c l ud e d i n T a b l e 26

.

T a b l e 26

- C h o ll a U n i t s 2, 3, a nd 4 : E P A ' s C o n tr o l C os t Su m m a ry

C o n t ro l O p ti on E m i s s i o n

Fact or

( l b / MM B tu ) E m i s s i o n

R at e E m i s s i on s

R e m o v e d

( t p y ) A n nu al C o s t

($ / y r ) C o s t

- e f

f ect i v e n e s s ( $ /t o n )

( l b/

h r) ( t p y ) A v e I n c r e m e n tal

( f r o m pr e v i ou s )

Ch o lla 2

O F A NA; L N B + O F A i s t h e c u rr e n tl y i n s talle d te c hn o l o g y

L N B + O F A

(b a s eli n e ) 0

. 29 5 89 2 2

, 89 0

-- -- -- --

SN C R + L N B + O F A 0

. 2 1 62 4 2

, 02 3 86 7 2

, 48 2

, 3 18 2

, 86 3

--

S C R +L N B + O F A 0

. 0 5 15 1 49 0 2

, 40 0 7

, 47 5

, 0 28 3

, 11 4 3

, 25 7

Ch o lla 3

O F A NA; L N B + O F A i s t h e c u rr e n tl y i n s talle d te c hn o l o g y

L N B + O F A

(b a s eli n e ) 0

. 25 4 88 5 2

, 90 8

-- -- -- --

SN C R + L N B + O F A 0

. 1 8 62 0 2

, 03 6 87 2 2

, 53 3

, 4 32 2

, 90 4

--

S C R +L N B + O F A 0

. 0 5 17 4 57 2 2

, 33 7 8

, 11 3

, 1 31 3

, 47 2 3

, 81 1

Ch o lla 4

O F A NA; L N B + O F A i s t h e c u rr e n tl y i n s talle d te c hn o l o g y

L N B + O F A

(b a s eli n e ) 0

. 26 0 114 4 3

, 60 9

-- -- -- --

SN C R + L N B + O F A 0

. 1 8 80 1 2

, 52 6 1

, 08 3 3

, 18 5

, 8 22 2

, 94 3

--

S C R +L N B + O F A 0

. 0 5 22 0 69 4 2

, 91 5 9

, 89 4

, 7 96 3

, 39 5 3

, 66 1

104 W e r ec o gn ize t h at t h e r e a r e m or e a gg r e ss i v e appro ac h e s w e c o u l d a dop t t h at c o u l d j u s ti f y t h e u s e o f h i g h e r

cap aci t y f act or s

, w h i c h w o u l d t h e r e b y l o w e r t h e c o s t p e r t o n o f po ll u ta n t r e d u ce d

. F or e x a m

p le

, i n s tea d o f u s i n g

h i s t or ical d ata t o d e v el op a ca p aci t y f act or v a l u e f

or eac h un it

, w e c o u l d u s e a s i n g le cap aci t y f act or v al u e f

or eac h

un i t

, o n e t h at

r e pr e s e n te d a r ea s o n a b le d e p icti o n o f a n t ici p at e d a n n u al b a s el o a d op e r ati o n s

. A lte r n ate l y

, w e c o u l d

al s o u s e t h e cap aci t y f

act or e s ti m at e s f

r o m A PS ’ C h o lla B A R T a n a l y s e s

, a s b a s e d o n a 2001

- 06 ti m e f r a m e

, or

d e v el op n e w cap aci t y f

act or s b a s e d o n a l o ng e r 2001 t o 20 1 1 t i m e f r a m e

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 59 o f 8 0 A s i nd i ca t e d i n T a

b l e 26

, ou r ca l c u l a ti ons i nd i ca t e t h a t t h e SCR

- b a s e d c on t r o l op ti ons

h a v e a v er a g e c os t

- e ff

e c ti v e n e ss v a l u e s o f

$3,114 / t on t o $3,472 /t on, w h i c h fa ll s i n a ra n g e t h a t w e

w ou l d c ons i d er c os t

- ef

fe c ti v e

. I n a dd iti on, ou r c a l c u l a ti ons i nd i ca t e t h a t t h e SCR

- b a s e d c on t r o l

op ti ons h a v e a n i n c r e m e n t a l c os t -ef f ec ti v e n e ss o f

$3,257 /t on t o $3,811 /t o n

, w h i c h i s a l so i n a

ra n g e t h a t w e w ou l d c on s i d er c os t

- e ff e c ti v e

. A s a r e su lt , ou r a n a l y s i s o f t h i s fac t o r i nd i c a t e s t h a t

t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce ( a v er a g e o r i n c re m e n t a l ) a re no t su ff i c i e n t l y l a r g e t o w ar

r a n t e limi n a ti n g

a n y o f t h e c on t r o l op ti o n s fr o m c ons i d e r a ti on.

b) V isi b i l i ty I m p r ove m e nt

Th e ov e r a ll v i s i b ili t y m o d e li n g a p p r o ac h w a s d e s cr i b e d a

bo v e ; a sp e c t s o f t h e m od e li n g

sp ec i f i c t o C ho ll a a r e d e s cr i b e d h e re . E P A m a d e a NO

x B A R T d e t er mi n a ti o n f

o r C ho ll a U n it s 2,

3 a nd 4, bu t U n it 1 (w h i c h i s no t B A R T -e li g i b l e ) w a s a l so i n c l ud e d i n t h e m od e li n g r uns f o r

g r ea t e r r e a li s m i n a ss e ss i n g t h e f u ll f ac ili t y ’ s v i s i b ili t y im p a c t s. F o r U n it 1 ’ s NO

x e mi ss i ons, t h e

m a x im u m d a i l y e mi ss i ons fr o m E P A ' s C A M D d a t a b a s e f o r 2008 t o 2010 w ere us e d ; t h e

m a x im u m o cc u rre d i n e a r l y 2008. L N B s w ere i ns t a ll e d on U n it s 2 a nd 4 e a r l y i n 2008, a nd on

U n it 3 i n mi d

- 2009 ; f

o r a rea li s ti c b a s e ca s e

, t h e b a s e li n e e mi ss i ons us e d f o r t h e s e un it s w e r e t h e

m a x im u m d a i l y e mi ss i ons i n l b / h r fr o m 2008

- 2010 o cc u rr i n g af t er t h e re s p ec ti v e L

N B

i ns t a ll a ti on d a t e s. Th e m a x im u m f o r un it 2 o cc u rre d i n mi d

- 2009, a nd t h e m a x im a f o r U n it s 2

a nd 3 o cc u r re d i n l a t e 2 0 10. Th e b a s e ca s e ref l e c t s L N B a s t h e c on t r o l i n p l ace

.

E P A e v a l u a t e d S N CR ( i n c l ud i n g L N B ) a nd SCR ( i n c l ud i n g L N B ) a pp li e d t o U n it s 2, 3

a nd 4. SCR w a s a ssu m e d t o g i v e a c on t r o l e f fec ti v e n e ss o f

83 p e rce n t , 80 p erce n t

, a nd 81 p e r ce n t

f o r un it s 2, 3 a nd 4, re s p e c ti v e l y ( l e ss t h a n 90 p e rc e n t du e t o t h e 0.05 l b / MM B t u NO

x l o w er limit

a ssu m e d f

o r SCR )

. F o r C ho ll a

, t h e i n crea s e i n su l f u r i c ac i d du e t o SCR w a s no t s im u l a t e d,

b eca us e t h e b a g hous e (f

a b r i c f ilt er) i ns t a ll e d f

o r p arti c u l a t e m a tt er c on t r o l w ou l d re du ce t h i s

i n crea s e d su l fa t e b y

99 p erce n t

, re su lti n g i n a n e g l i g i b l e e f f e c t on t h e v i s i b ili t y e s tim a t e . Th e 13

Cl a ss I a rea s w it h i n 300 k m o f C ho ll a w ere m od e l e d ; t h e y are i n t h e s t a t e s o f Ar i z on a

, C o l o ra do,

N e w M e x i c o, a nd U t a h. Th e 98 t h p er c e n til e d e lt a d ec i v i e w us i n g a ll t h r e e y ea r s o f d a t a t o g e t h e r

wa s c o m pu t e d f

o r e a c h a rea a nd e mi ss i on s ce n ar i o.

T a b l e 27 105 a nd T a

b l e 28 s h o w b a s e li n e v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s a nd t h e v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

w h e n c on t r o l s a re a

pp li e d ; t h e v ar i ous t a

b l e e n t r i e s are d e s cr i b e d a bov e i n t h e d i s c uss i on o f t h e

c o m p ara b l e t a b l e s f o r A p ac h e G e n e r a ti n g S t a ti on. Th e a r ea w it h t h e g r ea t e s t dv im p r ov e m e n t

w a s t h e P e t r i f

i e d F o re s t N a ti on a l P ar

k ; t h e im p r o v e m e n t fr o m S N CR w a s j us t und er 0.5 dv a nd

fr o m SCR w a s 1.3 dv. E it h er o f t h e s e im p r o v e m e n t s w ou l d c on t r i bu t e t o im p r ov e d v i s i b ili t y

,

w it h SCR b e i n g t h e sup e r i o r

op ti on f o r v i s i b ili t y

. Th e c o r

r e spond i n g c u m u l a ti v e im p r ov e m e n t s

are 2.7 a nd 7

. 2. O n l y SCR g i v e s im p r ov e m e n t s e x cee d i n g 0.5 dv, a nd it d o e s so a t e i g h t ar e a s,

t w o o f w h i c h h a v e im p r ov e m e n t s a bov e a f u ll 1 dv. Th e nu m b er

o f d a y s p e r y e ar w it h im p ac t s

a bov e 0.5 dv d e cr e a s e s b y 7 f o r S N CR

, a nd b y

21 f o r SCR (c ons i d er i n g t h e area w h e r e t h e

105 T h e d eci v i e w i m

p act s a r e c op ie d f

r o m t h e s pr ea d s h eet “A Z R HF I P

_ T SD

_ v i s

_ s um m

_ ta b le s

. x l s x ”

, w h i c h i n t u r n

r elie s o n t h e s pr ea d s h eet “ c h o

_ az

_ un it 2

- 3_do lla rp e rd v

_ a n al y s i s

_ f

i n a l w i t h p l o t s 2

. x l s ” pr e p a r e d b y UN C

. T h e c o s t s

u s e d i n $ / d v r e l y o n t h e s pr ea d s h eet “ E GU B A R T C o s t s

_ A p ac h e _C h o lla

_ C oro n a do_ F I NA L 2

. x l s x ” a l s o pr e p a r e d b y

UN C

. N o te t h at t h e c o s t s i n t h e latte r a r e s l i gh t l y d i ff e r e n t t h a n t h o s e i n t h e c o s t ta b l e s i n t h i s T SD

, w h i c h a s n o te d

a bo v e do n o t i n cl u d e prop e r t y ta x a n d i n s u r a n ce

. T h e nu m b e r o f d a y s a bo v e 0

. 5 a n d 1

. 0 d v a r e f ro m t h e s pr ea d s h e e t

“A Z R HF I P

_ T SD

_ Ch o lla

_ v i s x

. x l s x ”

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 60 o f 8 0 d ecr e a s e i s t h e g r ea t e s t

, M e s a V e r d e) . T h e m od e l e d d e g r e e o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t s suppo r t s

SCR a s B A R T f

o r C ho ll a.

T a b l e 27

- C h o ll a U n i t s 2, 3, a nd 4 : E P A ' s V i s i b ili t y I m p r ov e me n t f r o m N O x C o n tr o ls

base ctrl1_r ctrl2_r2

Cl a ss I A r ea B a s eli n e

i m p act

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S N C R

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S CR

(d v )

C a p it o l R e e f NP 1

. 4 6 0

. 2 7 0

. 7 6

Gali u ro WA 0

. 4 5 0

. 0 5 0

. 1 4

Gila WA 0

. 7 0 0

. 0 9 0

. 2 2

G r a n d C a n y o n NP 2

. 2 2 0

. 3 7 1

. 0 6

M azatzal WA 1

. 1 9 0

. 1 6 0

. 4 3

M e s a Ve rd e NP 1

. 3 4 0

. 2 6 0

. 7 0

M o un t B al d y WA 1

. 2 1 0

. 2 7 0

. 5 2

P et r i f ie d F or e s t NP 4

. 5 3 0

. 4 7 1

. 3 4

P i n e M o un ta i n WA 0

. 8 5 0

. 1 2 0

. 3 1

Sa g u a ro NP 0

. 3 0 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 5

Sie rr a A n c h a WA 1

. 3 6 0

. 2 0 0

. 5 1

S u p e r s titi o n WA 1

. 2 7 0

. 1 7 0

. 5 1

S y c a m or e C a n y o n WA 1

. 4 2 0

. 2 7 0

. 6 8

C u m u lat i v e dv 18

. 3 0 2

. 7 1 7

. 2 1

# a r ea s >= 0 .5 1 1 0 8

M a x

. a r ea n

u m b e r o f d a y s

>= 0

. 5 dv 25 2 7 2 1

M a x

. a r ea n

u m b e r o f d a y s

>= 1

. 0 dv 21 3 8 2 9

$ / m a x d v

, m il l i o ns $17

. 8 $20

. 8

$ /c u mu lat i v e d v

, m illi o ns $3

. 1 $3

. 8

T a b l e 28

- C h o ll a U n i t s 2, 3, a nd 4 : E P A ' s V i s i b ili t y I m p r ov e me n t D ay s f r o m N O x C o n t r o ls

base ctrl1_r ctrl2_r2

C la s s I A r e a B a s eli n e

i m p act ( d a y s ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S N C R

(d a y s ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S CR

(d a y s )

C a p it o l R e e f N P 1 9 1 8

Gali u ro W A 5 1 3

Gila W A 1 7 4 1 0

G r a n d C a n y o n N P 2 8 3 9

M azatzal W A 3 5 5 1 6

M e s a Ve rd e NP 3 3 7 2 1

M o un t B al d y W A 2 9 4 1 4

P et r i f ie d F or e s t N P 25 2 6 2 0

P i n e M o un ta i n W A 1 9 4 1 1

Sa g u a ro NP 4 2 3

Sie rr a A n c h a W A 4 1 5 1 6

S u p e r s titi o n W A 2 6 3 1 0

S y c a m or e C a n y o n W A 2 4 5 1 2

C u m u lat i v e #d a y s >= 0

. 5 53 0 5 0 15 2Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 61 o f 8 0 c) E P A ’s B A RT De t e rm i n a t

i on

A s no t e d a

bov e

, t h e re m a i n i n g us ef

u l li fe o f t h e s o u rce i s i n c o r p o ra t e d i n t o c on t r o l c os t

ca l c u l a ti ons a s a

2 0

- y e a r a m o r ti z a ti on p er i od. I n a dd iti on, t h e p re s e n ce o f e x i s ti n g po ll u ti on

c on t r o l t ec hno l og y i s ref

l ec t e d i n t h e c os t a nd v i s i b ili t y f ac t o r s a s a r e su lt o f

s e l ec ti on o f t h e

b a s e li n e p er i od f

o r c os t c a l c u l a ti ons a nd v i s i b ili t y m od e li n g

. F o r C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3, a nd 4, a

b a s e li n e p er i od ( 201 1 ) w a s s e l ec t e d t h a t ref l e c t s t h e c u r

r e n t l y e x i s ti n g po ll u ti on c on t r o l

t ec hno l o g y ( L

N B w it h O F A)

. I n e x a mi n i n g e n er g y a nd no n -a i r q u a li t y im p ac t s, w e no t e cert a i n

po t e n ti a l im p ac t s re su lti n g f r o m t h e us e o f a mm on i a i n j ec ti on a sso c i a t e d w i t h t h e S N CR a nd

SCR c on t r o l op ti ons, bu t do no t c ons i d er t h e s e i m p ac t s su ff i c i e n t e no u g h t o w ar

r a n t e limi n a ti n g

a n y o f t h e a v a il a

b l e c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s.

O u r c ons i d e r a ti on o f

d e g ree o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t f o c us e s p r im ar i l y o n t h e

im p r ov e m e n t fr o m b a s e ca s e im p ac t s a sso c i a t e d w it h eac h c on t r o l op ti on

. W h il e eac h o f t h e

a v a il a b l e NO

x c on t r o l o p ti ons ac h i e v e s so m e d e g r ee o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

, w e c ons i d e r t h e

im p r ov e m e n t a sso c i a t e d w it h t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t op ti on, SCR w i t h L N B a n d O F A

, t o b e

subs t a n ti a l

.

O u r c ons i d e r a ti on o f c os t o f c o m p li a n ce f o c us e s p r im ar i l y

on t h e c os t -e f

f ec ti v e n e ss o f

eac h c on t r o l op ti on, a s m ea su re d i n c os t p er t on a n d i n cre m e n t a l c os t p er t o n o f eac h c on t r o l

op ti on. D e sp it e t h e fac t t h a t t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t op t i on, SCR w it h L N B a nd O F A

, i s t h e m os t

e x p e ns i v e o f t h e a v a il a

b l e c on t r o l op ti ons, w e c o n s i d er it c os t -ef f ec ti v e on a v er a g e b a s i s a s w e ll

a s on a n i n c r e m e n t a l b a s i s w h e n c o m p a r e d t o t h e n e x t m os t s t r i n g e n t op ti on, S N CR w it h L N B

a nd O F A

.

A s a re su lt

, w e c ons i d er t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t a v a il a b l e c on t r o l op ti on, SCR w it h L N B a nd

O F A

, t o b e bo t h c os t

- ef

f ec ti v e a nd t o r e su lt i n subs t a n ti a l v i s i b il i t y im p r o v e m e n t

, a nd t h a t t h e

e n e r g y a nd n o n -a i r

q u a lit y im p ac t s a re no t su ff i c i e n t t o w arra n t e limi n a ti n g it fr o m c ons i d era ti on.

Th eref o re

, w e p r opos e t o d e t er

mi n e t h a t NO

x B A R T f

o r C ho ll a U n it s 2, 3, a nd 4 i s SCR w it h

L N B a nd O F A

, w it h a n a sso c i a t e d e mi ss i on limit f o r NO

x on e ac h o f U n it s 2, 3, a nd 4 o f 0.050

pounds p er milli on B r iti sh t h er m a l un it s ( l b / MM B t u ) , b a s e d on a r o lli n g 3 0

- bo il er- op e ra ti n g

- d a y

a v er a g e

.

3. C oro n a do U ni ts 1 a nd 2

a) C o s ts of C o m p l i a n ce

O u r g e n e ra l a

pp r o ac h t o ca l c u l a ti n g t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n ce i s d e s cr i b e d i n s ec ti on

II I

. A .1 a bov e

, w h il e c ons i d era ti ons un i qu e t o C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2 a r e e x p l a i n e d h ere i n. A s

m e n ti on e d i n t h e F e d era l R e g i s t er no ti c e f o r t h i s p r opos a l

, c on t r o l c os t s w e r e d e v e l op e d b y o u r

c on t rac t o r

us i n g t h e I n t e g r a t e d P l a nn i n g Mo d e l ( I P M ) B a s e C a s e v4.10 ( A u g us t 2010 ) . T h e

sp ec i f i c p a ra m e t e r s a nd a ssu m p ti ons us e d i n d e v e l op i n g t h e s e c os t s are i n c l ud e d i n ou r

c on t rac t o r ’ s re p o r t a nd it s a sso c i a t e d sp r ea dsh e e t

. A su mm a r y o f c a p it a l a n d op era ti n g c os t s i s

i n c l ud e d i n T a

b l e 29.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 62 o f 8 0 T a b l e 29

- C o r o n a d o 1 a nd 2 : E P A ' s C o n tr o l C os t E s t i m a tes

C oronado 1 C oronado 2

S NCR S CR S CR ( 0.08

l b / M M B t u) S CR ( 0.05

l b / M M B t u)

U n it O u t pu t ( M W) 411 411 411 411

C apac i t y Fac t or 0.81 0.81 0.89 0.89

C ap i t a l C o st 8,218,000 56,980,624 53,330,450 53,416,253

C ap i t a l R e co v e r y

Fac t or 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094

A nnua li z ed R a t e ( $ / y r) 775,721 5,378,568 5,034,017 5,042,116

F i xed O& M ( $ / y e a

r) 144,105 362,488 362,488 362,488

$ / k W

- yr 0.35 0.88 0.88 0.88

$ / M W

- yr 351 882 882 882

V a ri a b l e O& M ( $ / y ea r) 2,905,730 3,574,257 3,325,130 3,588,511

$ / M Wh 1.00 1.23 1.04 1.12

T o t a l A nnu a l O & M ( $ / y e ar) 3,049,835 3,936,745 3,687,619 3,950,999

T o t a l A nnu a l C o s t ( $ / y e a r) 3,825,556 9,315,313 8,721,636 8,993,116

Th e ca p it a l r ec ov e r y f

a c t o r ( 0.094 ) li s t e d a

bov e i s b a s e d upon a n i n t e r e s t ra t e o f 7 % ov e r

a 20 y e ar e qu i p m e n t li fe t im e

. P l ea s e no t e t h a t t h i s v a l u e do e s no t i n c l ud e p r op ert y t a x ( 0.90 %)

a nd i nsu ra n c e ( 0.30 % )

, w h i c h w e r e i n c l ud e d b y ou r c on t r a c t o r i n t h e i r c a l c u l a ti on o f ca p it a l

rec ov e r y f

a c t o r

. A s a re s u lt

, t h e a nnu a li z e d ra t e ( $ / y r) a nd t o t a l a nnu a l c os t ( $ / y r ) li s t e d i n t h e

t a b l e a bov e are l o w er t h a n t h e c os t v a l u e s su mm a r i z e d i n ou r c on t rac t o r’ s c os t ca l c u l a ti on

d e li v era b l e. 106 Es tim a t e s o f t h e a nnu a l e mi ss i on ra t e s us e d i n c os t ca l c u l a ti on s are su mm ar i z e d i n

T a b l e 30

.

106 See A pp e n d i x C o f W A 5

- 12 T a s k 8 Deli v e r a b le ( A p ac h e

- C h o lla

- C oro n a do B A R T A n a l y s i s R e por t ).do c xAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 63 o f 8 0 T a b l e 30

- C o r o n a d o 1 a nd 2 : E P A ' s A nnu a l E m i ss i o n E s t i m a tes

C on t ro l O p ti on P e rce nt E mi s s i on

F a c t or H e a t R a te A nnua l

C apac i t y E mi s s i on R a te

R educ t i on (l b / M M B t u) ( M M B t u / h r) F a c t or (l b / hr) (t p y)

C o r onad o 1

B a s e l i ne ( L NB + O F A)

-- 0.303 4,316 0.81 1,308 4,639

S NCR + L NB + O FA 30% 0.21 4,316 0.81 915 3,248

S CR + L NB + O FA 83% 0.05 4,316 0.81 216 766

C o r onad o 2

S CR ( 0.08 l b / MM B t u)

-- 0.08 3,984 0.89 319 1,242

S CR ( 0.05 l b / MM B t u)

-- 0.05 3,984 0.89 199 776

Th ere are s e v e r a l a sp e c t s o f ou r a n a l y s i s o f t h i s f

a c t o r t h a t d i ff

e r fr o m A D E Q’ s a nd SRP ’ s

a n a l y s i s a nd w e d e s cr i b e t h e m os t im po r t a n t e l e m e n t s b e l o w

.

( 1) S e l ec t i on of B a se l ine P er i od a nd B a se l ine C o n t rol

Tec h n o l ogy

SRP ’ s B A R T a n a l y s i s u s e d a 2001

- 03 tim e p e r i od i n o r d er t o e s t a b li sh it s b a s e li n e NO

x

e mi ss i ons. S i n ce t h a t ti m e p er i od, SRP h a s s i n ce i ns t a ll e d L N B w it h O F A on C o r on a do U n it s 1

a nd 2. I n o r d e r t o e nsu r e t h a t ac t u a l c ond iti ons a t t h e p l a n t are ref l ec t e d i n o u r

b a s e li n e NO

x

e mi ss i ons, w e d ec i d e d t o m a k e us e o f t h e m os t r e c e n t A c i d R a i n P r og ra m e mi ss i on d a t a re po r t e d

t o C A M D

, w h i c h, a t t h e tim e t h a t w e b e g a n o u r a n a l y s i s i n 2011, w a s t h e t h ree

- y e ar p er i od f r o m

C Y 2008

- 10. B a s e d on C A M D do c u m e n t a ti on, t h e l o w-NO

x b u r n er s w e r e i ns t a ll e d on C o r on a do

U n it 1 on M a y

16, 2009, m a k i n g it n e c e ss a r y f o r u s t o c l ear l y

d i s ti n g u i sh b e t w ee n t h e p r e

- L N B

a nd pos t

- L

N B p er i ods o f e mi ss i on d a t a f o r C o r on a do U n it 1. I n ou r a n a l y s i s

, w e h a v e d ec i d e d t o

m a k e us e o f C A M D e mi ss i on d a t a c o r r e spond i n g t o t h e pos t

- L

N B p er i od e x t e nd i n g f

r o m M a y

16, 2009 t o D ece m b e r

3 1 , 2010. W e b e li e v e t h e u s e o f t h i s m o re r e ce n t b a s e li n e p er i od

re p re s e n t s t h e m os t rea li s ti c d e p i c ti on o f a n ti c i p a t e d a nnu a l e mi ss i ons, a s it ref l e c t s op era ti on o f

C o r on a do U n it 1 w it h L

N B a nd O F A

.

F o r C o r on a do U n it 2, w e no t e t h a t a c ons e n t d e c re e b e t w e e n SRP a nd E P A re qu i re s t h e

i ns t a ll a ti on o f SCR a nd c o m p li a n ce w it h a n e mi ss i on limit o f 0.080 l b / M M B t u ( 30

- d a y r o lli n g

a v er a g e) b y J un e 1, 201 4. 107 A lt hou g h w e r e a li z e t h i s SCR s y s t e m h a s no t y e t b ee n i ns t a ll e d on

C o r on a do U n it 2, t h i s l i mit i s fe d era l l y e n f o r c ea b l e a nd re p re s e n t s a rea l i s ti c d e p i c ti on o f

a n ti c i p a t e d f

u t u re e mi ss i ons. 108 A s a re su lt

, w e c ons i d er 0.080 l b / MM B t u t o b e t h e b a s e li n e

e mi ss i on ra t e i n ou r B A R T a n a l y s i s a nd a r e e x a mi n i n g on l y on e c on t r o l s c e n ar i o i n ou r a n a l y s i s

f o r U n it 2, SCR a t a m o re s t r i ng e n t e mi ss i on ra t e o f 0.050 l b / MM B t u. 109

107 See D o c k et

I t e m G

- 01

, “ C o n s e n t Dec r ee B e t w e e n U

. S

. a n d S R P ( f i n a l a s e n te r e d)

. ” See al s o A D E Q T itle V

P e r m it R e n e w a l N u m

b e r 526 3 9

, S R P

– C oro n a d o Ge n e r ati n g Stati o n

, s ecti o n II.E. 1

. a

. iii ( Dec e m

b e r 06, 2 0 11)

. 108 See 40 C F R P a r t 51

, A pp e n d i x Y

, Secti o n

I V

. D

. 4

. d

. 109 A d i s c u s s i o n o f o u r r ati o n ale f or c o n s i d e r i n g S CR at a n e m i ss i o n r ate o f 0

. 05 l b / MM B tu ca n b e f ou n d i n Sec t i o n

V II. A

. 2 ( C o n t ro l Ef

f ect i v e n e s s ) o f t h i s n o tice

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 64 o f 8 0 ( 2) S C R C o nt r ol E ff i c ien c y

I n d e t er mi n i n g t h e c on t r o l eff

i c i e n c y o f SCR i n ou r B A R T a n a l y s i s, w e h a v e re li e d upon

a n SCR l e v e l o f

p erf o r m a n ce o f 0.05 l b / M M B t u, w h i c h i s m o re s t r i ng e n t t h a n t h e l e v e l o f

p erf o r m a n ce u s e d b y A D E Q i n it s S I P , o r b y SRP i n it s C o r on a do B A R T a n a l y s i s. I n t h e

C o r on a do B A R T a n a l y s i s sub mitt e d t o AD E Q

, SRP i nd i ca t e d a n SCR l e v e l o f p erf o r m a n c e o f

0.08 l b / MM B t u, a nd no t e d t h a t “ I f i n l e t NO

x c on c e n t ra ti ons are l e ss t h a n 2 50 pp m vd, SCR ca n

ac h i e v e NO

x c on t r o l eff

i c i e n c i e s r a n g i n g on l y fr o m 70 t o 80 p erce n t .” 110 O u r c on t r o l c os t

ca l c u l a ti ons f

o r t h e SCR c on t r o l op ti on a t C o r on a do U n it 1 are b a s e d upo n t h e SCR c on t r o l

eff i c i e n c y su mm ar i z e d i n T a

b l e 31. Th i s c on t r o l e f

f i c i e n c y r ef

l e c t s t h e e mi ss i on re du c ti ons

a sso c i a t e d w it h c on t r o ll i n g f r o m a n a nn u a l a v e ra g e b a s e li n e e mi ss i on ra t e t h a t re p r e s e n t s

L N B + O F A (a s d e s cr i b e d p re v i ous l y ) do w n t o a n SCR e mi ss i on ra t e o f 0.05 l b / MM B t u.

T a b l e 31

- C o r o n a d o U n i t 1 : E P A ' s S CR C o n t r o l E f f i c i e n cy

U n it N o. B a s e li n e

E mi ss i on

R a t e

( l b / MM B t u ) SCR

E mi ss i on

R a t e SCR

C on t r o l

E ff i c i e n c y ( p er c e n t a g e)

C o r on a do 1 0.303 0.05 83.5 %

(3) C a p a c it y Fa c t o r

SRP d i d no t ca l c u l a t e a nnu a l e mi ss i on e s tim a t e s f o r it s c on t r o l s ce n ar i os, i n t ons p er y ea r

, i n it s B A R T a n a l y s i s sub mitt e d t o AD E Q

. I n d e v e l op i n g it s R H S I P

, AD E Q e s tim a t e d a nnu a l

e mi ss i on re du c ti ons b a s e d upon 8,760 hou r s / y e ar o f op era ti on ( i

. e ., 100 p e r ce n t ca p ac i t y f a c t o r)

. W e h a v e ca l c u l a t e d a nn u a l e mi ss i on e s tim a t e s f o r ou r c on t r o l s ce n ar i os us i n g c a p a c i t y f ac t o r s

d e v e l op e d ov e r a C Y 20 0 8

- 11 tim e fra m e . T h e a n n u a l ca p a c i t y fac t o r s w e h a v e us e d f o r e a c h un it

are 81 p e r c e n t ( C o r on a d o 1 )

, a nd 89 p e r ce n t ( C o r o n a do 2 )

. W e r e c o g n i z e t h a t t h e s e ca p ac i t y

fac t o r s a re l o w er t h a n t h o s e us e d b y AD E Q

, a nd t h a t b y us i n g t h e s e l o w er c a

p ac i t y f a c t o r s, ou r

e s tim a t e s o f t o t a l a nnu a l e mi ss i ons (a nd c o r r e spo n d i n g l y

, t h e a nn u a l e mi ss i on re du c ti ons ) f o r

eac h c on t r o l s ce n ar i o a r e l o w er t h a n AD E Q’ s e s t i m a t e s. 111 S i n ce c os t

- e ff e c ti v e n e ss ( $ /t on ) i s

ca l c u l a t e d b y

d i v i d i n g a n nu a l c on t r o l c os t s ( $ / y e ar ) b y a nnu a l e mi ss i on re d u c ti ons ( t ons / y e a r)

,

t h e us e o f e mi ss i on re du c ti ons b a s e d on l o w er c a p ac i t y fac t o r s w ill i n crea s e t h e c os t p er t on o f

po ll u t a n t re du ce d.

W e h a v e e l e c t e d t o us e t h e ca p ac i t y f a c t o r s sp ec i f

i e d a bov e

, a s b a s e d on a 2008 t o 2011

tim e fra m e

, i n o r d e r t o r e m a i n c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e tim e fra m e us e d t o d e v e l op b a s e li n e a nnu a l

e mi ss i ons f

o r C o r on a do a nd t h e o t h er po w er p l a n t s t h a t are t h e sub

j e c t o f t od a y ’ s p r opos e d

ac ti on. 112

110 See D o c k et

I t e m B

- 10

, S R P C oro n a do B A R T A n a l y s i s

, p a g e 4

- 5

111 W e n o te t h at t h e r e a r e mu lti p l e r ea s o n s w h y o u r a n n u al e m i ss i o n e s t i m ate s ( a n d e s t i m ate s o f e m i ss i o n r e m o v al )

a r e l o w e r t h a n A E P C O ’ s a n d A D E Q ’ s e s t i m at e s

. W e a r e n o t i m p l y i n g t h at t h e u s e o f cap aci t y f act or i s t h e s o le

, or

e v e n d o m i n a n t , r ea s o n f

or t h i s d i ff

e r e n ce

, s i m

p l y t h at t h e u s e o f l o w e r cap aci t y f act or s w i l l r e s u lt i n l o w e r a n nu al

e m i s s i o n e s t i m ate s

. 112 W e r ec o gn ize t h at t h e r e a r e m or e a gg r e ss i v e appro ac h e s w e c o u l d a dop t t h at c o u l d j u s ti f y t h e u s e o f h i g h e r

cap aci t y f act or s

, w h i c h w o u l d t h e r e b y l o w e r t h e c o s t p e r t o n o f po ll u ta n t r e d u ce d

. F or e x a m

p le

, i n s tea d o f u s i n gAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 65 o f 8 0 ( 4) S umm a ry an d C o n c l u s i o n s R e g a rd in g C os t s o f C o nt r ol

A su mm a r y o f

ou r c on t r o l c os t e s tim a t e s f o r t h e v a r i ous c on t r o l t ec hno l og y op ti ons c ons i d ere d

f o r C o r on a do U n it s 1 a n d 2 i s i n T a b l e 32.

T a b l e 32

- C o r o n a d o U n i t s 1 a nd 2 : E P A ' s C o n tr o l C os t Su mm a ry

C o n t ro l O p ti on E m i s s i o n

Fact or

( l b / MM B tu ) E m i s s i o n R at e E m i s s i on s

R e m o v e d

( t p y ) A n nu al

C o s t

($ / y r ) C o s t

- e f

f ect i v e n e s s ( $ /t o n )

( l b / h r) ( t

p y ) A v e r a g e I n c r e m e n ta l

( f r o m pr e v i ou s )

C oro n a do 1

O F A NA; L N B + O F A i s t h e c u rr e n tl y i n s talle d te c hn o l o g y

L N B + O F A

( b a s el i n e ) 0

. 30 3 1

, 30 8 4

, 63 9

-- -- -- --

SN C R + L N B + O F A 0

. 2 1 91 5 3

, 24 8 1

, 39 2 3

, 82 5

, 5 56 2

, 74 9

--

S C R +L N B + O F A 0

. 0 5 21 6 76 6 3

, 87 4 9

, 31 5

, 3 13 2

, 40 5 2

, 21 2

C oro n a do 2

S C R@ 0

. 08

l b / MM B tu

(b a s eli n e ) 0

. 0 8 31 9 1

, 24 2

-- 8

, 72 1

, 6 36 1

-- --

S C R@ 0

. 05

l b / MM B tu 0

. 0 5 19 9 77 6 46 6 8

, 99 3

, 1 16

-- 58 3

1 A nnu a l c os t f

o r t h e b a s e li n e s ce n a r i o i s p r ov i d e d h ere on l y t o a ll o w c a l c u l a ti on o f t h e

i n cre m e n t a l c os t a ss o c i a t e d w it h a c on t r o l op ti on o f SCR @0.05 l b / MM B t u

.

F o r C o r on a do 1, o u r ca l c u l a ti ons i nd i ca t e t h a t t h e SCR

- b a s e d c on t r o l op ti on h a s a n

a v er a g e c os t

- ef

f ec ti v e n e s s v a l u e o f

$2,405 /t on a n d a n i n cre m e n t a l c os t -e f f e c ti v e n e ss o f

$2,212 /t on, bo t h o f w h i c h w e c ons i d er c os t

- e ff e c ti v e

. A s d e s cr i b e d f

u r t h e r b e l o w , ou r a n a l y s i s

f o r C o r on a do 2 r e li e d u

p on SCR a t a n e mi ss i on ra t e o f 0.08 l b / MM B t u a s a b a s e li n e s ce n ar i o. A s

a re su lt

, t h e on l y c on t r o l op ti on w e e x a mi n e d f o r C o r on a do 2 w a s a n SCR

- b a s e d op ti on a t a m o re

s t r i n g e n t l e v e l o f

p e r f o r m a n ce , 0.05 l b / MM B t u. O u r i n iti a l a n a l y s i s i nd i c a t e s t h a t t h e i n cre m e n t a l

c os t -ef f ec ti v e n e ss o f

su c h a n op ti on i s $583 /t on, m a k i n g it a c on t r o l op ti o n t h a t w e w ou l d

c ons i d er c os t

- ef

f ec ti v e

. H o w e v e r

, w e r e c e i v e d i n f o r m a ti on fr o m SRP i nd i ca ti n g t h a t d e s i g n a nd

c ons t r u c ti on o f t h e SCR s y s t e m f o r t h i s un it a r e w e ll und er w a y

. I n it s l e tt er

, SRP s t a t e s t h a t “ i f

SRP w ere re qu i re d t o a

b a ndon t h e c u r

r e n t d e s i g n, i n c u r

p r o c u re m e n t l oss e s, poss i b l y re m ov e

f ound a ti ons, a nd und ert a k e n e w d e s i g n a nd p r o c u re m e n t , su c h s t e ps w ou l d v a s t l y i n c r ea s e t h e

c os t o f t h e SCR re t r o f

it

. ” S i n ce t h e s e t y

p e s o f a dd i ti on a l c os t s w ere no t f ac t o re d i n t o ou r

o r i g i n a l

a n a l y s i s, t h e a v e ra g e a n d i n cre m e n t a l c os t

- ef f ec ti v e n e ss o f r e qu i r i n g C o r o n a do U n it 2 t o m ee t a n

e mi ss i ons lim i t o f

0.050 l b / MM B t u m a y i n f ac t b e g r ea t e r t h a n i nd i ca t e d b y ou r a n a l y s i s.

h i s t or ical d ata t o d e v el op a ca p aci t y f act or v a l u e f

or eac h un it

, w e c o u l d u s e a s i n g le cap aci t y f act or v al u e f

or eac h

un i t

, o n e t h at

r e pr e s e n te d a r ea s o n a b le d e p icti o n o f a n t ici p at e d a n n u al b a s el o a d op e r ati o n s

. A lte r n ate l y

, w e c o u l d

al s o u s e a 100 % ca p aci t y f ac t or

, o r d e v el op n e w cap aci t y f a ct or s b a s e d o n a l o ng e r 2001 t o 20 1 1 ti m e f r a m e

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 66 o f 8 0 H o w e v e r

, w e i n t e nd t o re qu e s t f u r t h er d o c u m e n t a t i on i n o r d er t o d e t er mi n e t h e e x t e n t o f t h e s e

c os t s a nd ho w t h e y w ou l d aff e c t ou r c os t

- ef

f ec ti v e n e ss ca l c u l a ti ons. W e w ill i n c l ud e a ll non

- CB I

m a t er i a l r e ce i v e d i n t h e d o c k e t f o r t h i s ac ti on a nd w ill c ons i d er it a s p art o f ou r f i n a l ac ti on. W e

are sp e c i f i ca l l y i n t e r e s t e d i n i n f

o r m a ti on fr o m SR P c on cer

n i n g t h e nu m b er o f l a y e r s o f ca t a l y s t

f o r t h e SCR a t U n it 2, ho w t h e y p l a n t o m a n a g e r e p l ace m e n t o f t h e ca t a l y s t

, a nd w h e t h er t h e

ca t a l y s t c ou l d b e i ns t a ll e d a nd m a n a g e d t o a ll o w U n it 2 t o m ee t a l o w er e mi ss i on li m it t h a n 0.08

l b / MM B t u.

Thus, ou r i n iti a l a n a l y s i s o f t h i s fac t o r i nd i ca t e s t h a t t h e c os t s o f c o m p li a n c e (a v e r a g e o r

i n cre m e n t a l ) are no t su f

f i c i e n t l y l ar g e t o w a rra n t e limi n a ti n g a n y o f t h e c o n t r o l op ti ons fr o m

c ons i d era ti on. H o w e v er

, w e no t e t h a t , b a s e d on p r e limi n a r y i n f o r m a ti on r e ce i v e d f

r o m SRP

, t h e

a v er a g e a nd i n c re m e n t a l c os t s o f ac h i e v i n g a n e mi ss i on ra t e o f 0.050 l b / MM B t u a t U n it 2 m a y

b e g rea t er t h a n ou r i n iti a l a n a l y s i s s u gg e s t s.

b) V isi b i l i ty I m p r ove m e nt

Th e ov e r a ll m od e li n g a

p p r o ac h w a s d e s c r i b e d a

b ov e ; a sp ec t s o f t h e m o d e li n g sp ec i f i c t o

C o r on a do are d e s c r i b e d h ere

. L N B w a s i ns t a ll e d on U n it 1 i n mi d

- 2009, a nd on U n it 2 i n mi d2011. F o r U n it 1 ’ s NO

x e mi ss i ons, t h e m a x im u m d a i l y e mi ss i ons i n E P A’ s C A M D d a t a b a s e f o r

2008 t o 2010 w a s us e d ; t h e m a x im u m pos t

- L N B i ns t a ll a ti on e mi ss i ons o cc u rre d i n l a t e 2010. F o r

un it 2 e mi ss i ons, t h e c ons e n t d ec r ee- m a n d a t e d NO

x e mi ss i on limit o f 0.0 8 l b / MM B t u w a s

c o m b i n e d w it h t h e m a x i m u m h ea t ra t e f r o m 2008

- 2010 C A M D d a t a

, w h i c h o cc u r r e d i n l a t e

2008. S i n ce t h i s limit h a s a 30

- d a y a v e ra g i n g tim e

, d a i l y e mi ss i ons m a y b e l a r g er t h a n t h e

e mi ss i ons E P A m od e l e d ; t h e e mi ss i on a nd v i s i b il i t y b e n ef it w ou l d a l so b e l a r g er . Thus, v i s i b ili t y

b e n ef it s fr o m c on t r o l a

p p li e d t o t h e b a s e ca s e m a y ac t u a l l y b e l a r g er t h a n p r e s e n t e d h e re . Th e

b a s e ca s e r e f

l ec t s L N B a s t h e c on t r o l i n p l ace on U n it 1, a nd SCR a t 0.08 l b / MM B t u NO

x on

U n it 2.

E P A e v a l u a t e d S N CR a p p li e d t o U n it 1 (“ ctrl1_r ”)

, SCR a t 0.05 l b / M M B t u on un it 1

bu t a t 0.08 on un it 2 (“ ctrl2_r ”) a nd SCR a t 0.05 l b / MM B t u a pp li e d t o bo t h U n it s 1 a nd 2

(“ ctrl5_rs ” )

. SCR w a s a ssu m e d t o g i v e a c on t r o l eff e c ti v e n e ss o f

83.5 p erce n t f

o r un it 1 ( l e ss

t h a n 90 p er c e n t du e t o t h e 0.05 l b / MM B t u NO

x l o w er limit a ssu m e d f o r SCR )

. SCR a t 0.05

l b / MM B t u NO

x w a s a ssu m e d t o g i v e a c on t r o l e f f ec ti v e n e ss o f

37.5 p er c e n t ov er t h e b a s e ca s e

0.08 l b / MM B t u. A s m e n ti on e d a bov e

, t h e SCR

s im u l a ti on (“ ctrl5_rs ” ) acc oun t e d f o r t h e

i n crea s e i n su l f

u r i c a c i d e mi ss i ons du e t o ca t a l y s t o x i d a ti on o f SO 2 a t U n it 2. H o w e v e r

,

o r i g i n a l l y

, t h e o t h e r

s im u l a ti ons d i d no t acc oun t f o r t h i s eff e c t

. I f t h i s a dd iti on a l U n it 2 su l fa t e

w ere acc oun t e d f

o r

, it c o u l d m a k e so m e b ac k g r o u nd a mm on i a un a v a il a b l e t o f o r m v i s i b ili t yaff e c ti n g p ar ti c u l a t e fr o m U n it 1 ’ s NO

x e mi ss i ons, t hus re du c i n g t h e v i s i b ili t y im p ac t a nd a l so

t h e v i s i b ili t y

b e n ef it o f c on t r o l s. W e e x p ec t e d t h i s t o h a v e v e r y littl e e f fec t on t h e e s tim a t e d

S N CR v i s i b i li t y b e n ef it

, s i n ce it w a s c o m pu t e d r e l a ti v e t o a n a lt er n a ti v e b a s e ca s e t h a t li k e w i s e

d i d no t i n c l ud e t h e ca t a l y s t ox i d a ti on effec t , bu t t h e v i s i b ili t y b e n ef it s fr o m S N CR c ou l d h a v e

b ee n s li g h t l y l e ss t h a n o r i g i n a l l y t ho u g h t . E P A subs e qu e n t l y acc oun t e d f o r t h i s effec t b y

s im u l a ti n g t h e i n cr e a s e d su l fa t e fr o m SCR f o r t h e S N CR

s ce n ar i o (“ ctrl 1 _rs ”

, S N CR on un it

1, SCR on un it 2 )

, a nd t h e s ce n a r i o w it h SCR on b o t h un it s a t d i ffere n t c on t r o l l e v e l s

(“ ctrl2_rs ” , 0.05 l b / MM B t u f o r U n it 1, a nd 0 .08 l b / MM B t u f o r U n it 2 ) . Th i s l a n g u a g e i n t h e

N PR M ref

l ec t s t h e s it u a ti on b ef

o re t h e s e subs e q u e n t s im u l a ti ons. H o w e v er

, t h e upd a t e d re su lt sAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 67 o f 8 0 f u l l y a cc oun ti n g f

o r SCR ca t a l y s t o x i d a ti on are r e po r t e d i n t h e N PR M v i s i b ili t y im p a c t t a b l e s,

a nd w e r e c ons i d e r e d i n E P A’ s d ec i s i on

- m a k i n g

.

Th e e mi ss i ons b a s i s f

o r t h e s e a dd iti on a l s im u l a ti ons i s b r i ef l y d e s cr i b e d h e re , s i n ce t h e y

are no t e l s e w h e r e do c u m e n t e d ; t h e y a r e re v i s e d v e r s i ons o f “ ctrl1_r ” a n d “ ctrl2 ” c o v ere d

i n t h e UN C re po r t

.

· S ce n ar i o “ ctrl1_rs ” f o r S N CR on U n it 1 i s t h e s a m e a s UN C ’ s “ ctrl 1 _r ”

, e x ce p t

it i n c l ud e s t h e a dd e d SCR ca t a l y s t s u l f a t e f o r U n it 2. Th e a m oun t o f

su l fa t e a dd e d w a s

t h e s a m e a s f

o r U n it 2 i n “ base_rs ”

.

· S ce n ar i o “ ctrl2_rs ” f o r SCR a t 0.05 l b / MM Bt

u on U n it 1 a nd SCR a t 0 .08

l b / MM B t u on U n it 2 i s s i mil ar t o UN C ’ s “ ctrl2 ”

. H o w e v er

, it s t art s fr o m t h e r e v i s e d

b a s e ca s e us i n g pos t

- L

N B i ns t a ll a ti on e mi ss i ons b ef o re a pp l y i n g t h e 83. 5 % re du c ti on t o

U n it 1 ; it a l so i n c l ud e s t h e a dd e d SCR ca t a l y s t s u l fa t e f o r bo t h un it s. Thus, U n it 1

e mi ss i ons are t h e s a m e a s i n “ ctrl5_rs ”

, a nd U n it 2 e mi ss i ons are t h e s a m e a s i n

“b ase_rs ”

.

· A n a dd iti on a l s ce n a r i o “ ctrl6_rs ” po r t r a y s S CR a t 90 % c on t r o l re l a t i v e t o pos t

- L N B

i ns t a ll a ti on e mi ss i ons. F o r U n it 1, t h e s t arti n g po i n t w a s “b ase_rs ” ( C A M D m a x im u m

NO x e mi ss i ons on 11 / 3 / 2 010 o f 16.6 t ons / d a y o r 3 3,208 l b / d a y ; t h i s i s 174.3 g / s )

,

re du ce d b y

9 0 % t o 17.5 3 g / s f

o r m o d e li n g

. F o r U n it 2, t h e s t arti n g po i n t w a s no t

a v a il a b l e f r o m o t h er s im u l a ti ons, w h i c h w ere b a s e d d i rec t l y on 0.08 o r

0. 0 5 l b / MM B t u

NO x

. S o, t h e C A M D m a x im u m NO x e mi s s i ons o n 6 / 2 / 2011 o f 18.859 t ons / d a y w ere

us e d. Th i s i s 33,718 l b / d a y o r 198.02 g / s ; re du c i n g b y

90 % g i v e s 19.80 g / s f

o r m od e li n g

. F o r bo t h un it s, t h e a dd e d SCR ca t a l y s t su l fa t e w a s t a k e n fr o m “ ctrl5_rs ” ( t h e

s ce n ar i o w it h 0.05 l b / MM B t u on bo t h un it s )

.

S i x t ee n Cl a ss I a rea s w it h i n 300 k m o f C o r on a do w ere m od e l e d ; t h e y a r e i n t h e s t a t e s o f

Ar i z on a

, C o l o ra do, a nd N e w M e x i c o. A 17 t h ar e a

, t h e B osq u e d e l A p a c h e W il d er n e ss Ar ea i n

N e w M e x i c o, w a s i n a dv e r t e n t l y o mitt e d fr o m m o d e li n g p e rf o r m e d b y UN C f

o r E P A

. S i n ce it i s

i n t h e s a m e g e n e ra l d i r ec ti on fr o m C o r on a do a s t h e G il a W il d er n e ss Ar e a

, bu t far t h er a w a y

,

v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s a nd c o n t r o l b e n ef it s a t B osq u e d e l A p ac h e a r e li k e l y t o b e l o w er t h a n f o r G il a

,

so t h e m a x im u m dv b e n e f it w ou l d no t b e aff

e c t e d b y t h i s o mi ss i on. E P A v er i f i e d t h i s b y

s im u l a ti n g a ll t h e c on t r o l s ce n ar i os f o r B osq u e d e l A p ac h e ; t h e re su lt s f o r t h i s area are i n c l u d e d

i n t h e t a b l e s b e l o w

, a lt h o u g h t h e y w er e no t p art o f E P A’ s d ec i s i on p r o c e ss i n d e v e l op i n g t h e

N PR M. H o w e v er

, t h e c u m u l a ti v e im p ac t s a nd b e n ef it s w ou l d b e h i g h er t h a n re po r t e d h e r e s i n ce

B osqu e d e l A p ac h e i s o mitt e d fr o m t h e su m . Th e 9 8 t h p erce n til e d e lt a d ec i v i e w s ov er a ll t h r e e

y ea r s o f d a t a w e re c o m pu t e d f o r e ac h a rea a nd e mi ss i on s ce n ar i o.

T a b l e 33 a nd T a

b l e 34 113 sho w b a s e li n e v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s a nd t h e v i s i b ili t y

im p r ov e m e nt 114

w h e n c on t r o l s are a pp li e d ; t h e v ar i o us t a

b l e e n t r i e s a re d e s cr i b e d a bov e i n t h e

113 T h e d eci v i e w i m

p act s a r e c op ie d f

r o m t h e s pr ea d s h eet “A Z R HF I P

_ T SD

_ v i s

_ s um m

_ ta b le s

. x l s x ”

, w h i c h i n t u r n

r elie s o n t h e s pr ea d s h eet “ s rp_ az

_ un it 2

- 3_do lla rp e rd v

_ a n al y s i s _f

i n a l w i t h p l o t s 2

. x l s ” pr e p a r e d b y U N C

. T h e c o s t s

u s e d i n $ / d v r e l y o n t h e s pr ea d s h eet “ E GU B A R T C o s t s

_ A p ac h e _C h o lla

_ C oro n a do_ F I NA L 2

. x l s x ” a l s o pr e p a r e d b y

UN C

. N o te t h at t h e c o s t s i n t h e latte r a r e s l i gh t l y d i ff e r e n t t h a n t h o s e i n t h e c o s t ta b l e s i n t h i s T SD

, w h i c h a s n o te d

a bo v e do n o t i n cl u d e prop e r t y ta x a n d i n s u r a n ce

. T h e nu m b e r o f d a y s a bo v e 0

. 5 a n d 1

. 0 d v a r e f ro m t h e s pr ea d s h e e t

“A Z R HF I P

_ T SD

_ C oro n a d o_v i s x

. x l s x ”

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 68 o f 8 0 d i s c uss i on o f t h e c o m p a r a b l e t a b l e f o r A p a c h e

. E P A i s p r opos i n g SCR a t 0.05 l b / MM B t u on

U n it 1 a nd SCR a t 0.08 l b / MM B t u on U n it 2, sho w n a s s ce n ar i o “c t r l 2_ r s ” . Th e a r ea w it h t h e

g r ea t e s t dv im p r ov e m e n t w a s t h e G il a W il d er n e ss Ar ea ; t h e re i s a n im p r ov e m e n t o f 0.2 dv fr o m

S N CR (c t r l 1_

r s ) , 0.7 dv f

r o m SCR on un it 1 (c t r l 2

_

r s )

, a nd 0.9 dv f

r o m SCR a t 0.05 l b / MM B t u

on bo t h un it s (c t r l 5_

r s ) . Th e s e im p r ov e m e n t s a re s m a ll er t h a n f o r t h e o t h e r fac iliti e s b eca u s e t h e

b e n ef it fr o m SCR a t 0.08 l b / MM B t u on un it 2 i s s ubsu m e d i n t h e b a s e li n e

. Th e c u m u l a ti v e

im p r ov e m e n t s c o r

r e spond i n g t o t h e t h r e e c on t r o l s ce n ar i os a re 1.0 dv, 2.8 dv, a nd 3.1 dv. Th e

nu m b er o f d a y s p er y e ar w it h im p ac t s a bov e 0.5 d v d ecr e a s e s b y 6 f o r S N CR on un it 1, b y

16 f o r

SCR on un it 1, a nd b y

1 8 f o r SCR on bo t h un it s a t

0.05 l b / MM B t u NO x (c ons i d er i n g t h e ar e a

w h ere t h e d e c rea s e i s t h e g r ea t e s t

, G il a W il d er n e s s Ar e a ) . Th e m od e l e d d e g r ee o f v i s i b ili t y

im p r ov e m e n t s suppo r t s e it h er SCR s ce n ar i o a s B A R T f

o r C o r on a do.

U nd er b a s e li n e c ond iti ons t h e m a x im u m n u m b er o f d a y s p er y e ar w it h im p ac t s a bov e 0.5

dv s ee n a t a n y ar e a i s 28 (“ M a x

. are a ” i n T a b l e 3 3 ; s ee a dd iti on a l e x p l a n a ti on o f t h i s t a b l e r o w i n

t h e s ec ti on on A p ac h e v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t )

. F o r S N CR (c t r l 1_ r s )

, t h i s m a x im u m d ecrea s e s b y

6, l ea v i n g 22 d a y s ov er 0 .5 dv. F o r E P A’ s p r opo s e d B A R T, SCR o f 0.05 l b / MM B t u on un it 1

a nd 0.08 l b / MM B t u on U n it 2 (c t r l 2_ r s )

, it d ec r ea s e s b y

16, l ea v i n g 12 d a y s ov er . Th e d ec r ea s e

i s s li g h t l y m o re a t 18 f

o r SCR on bo t h un i t s a t 0.05 l b / MM B t u NO x (c t r l 5_ r s )

, l ea v i n g 10 d a y s

ov er 0.5 dv.

T a b l e 34 sho w s t h e nu m b er

o f d a y s w it h im p a i r

m e n t e x cee d i n g 0.5 dv, f

o r eac h Cl a ss I

area ( i ns t ea d o f t h e m a x im u m a m on g a n y ar e a t h a t i s sho w n i n T a b l e 33 )

, a s w e ll a s t h e

c u m u l a ti v e nu m b er

o f d a y s ( su m ov e r t h e a rea s )

. F o r t h e b a s e li n e c ond iti o n, P e t r i f i e d F o r e s t h a s

t h e l a r g e s t nu m b er o f

su c h d a y s, t h e b a s e li n e 28 a pp ear i n g i n T a b l e 33. H o w e v er G il a

W il d er n e ss Ar ea i s h a s t h e g rea t e s t im p r ov e m e n t f o r a ll t h e c on t r o l s ce n ar i o s, so it s r o w h a s t h e

s a m e e n t r i e s a s t h e m a x im u m “ M a x

. area nu m b e r o f

d a y s >= 0.5 d v ” i n T a b l e 33.

A n y o f t h e s e im p r ov e m e n t s w ou l d c on t r i bu t e t o im p r ov e d v i s i b ili t y

, t ho u gh S N CR on

un it 2 on l y m a r g i n a l l y

s o

. SCR i s t h e sup er i o r

op t i on f o r v i s i b ili t y

, w it h t h e m o re s t r i ng e n t SCR

a t 0.05 l b / MM B t u on un it 2 g i v i n g a s li g h t l y g r ea t er

b e n e f it t h a n w h e n t h a t limit i s a pp li e d on l y

t o un it 1. O n l y t h e SCR

s ce n ar i os g i v e im p r o v e m e n t s e x cee d i n g 0.5 dv. T h e m od e l e d d e g r ee o f

v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t s s uppo r t s e it h er SCR s ce n a r i o a s B A R T f

o r C o r on a d o.

114 T h e ta b le b el o w d i f

f e r s f r o m t h e c orr e s po n d i ng o n e i n t h e N P R M d u e t o t h e N P R M’ s u s e o f t h e 23rd h i g h o v e r

t h e 2001

- 2003 p e r i o d a s t h e 98 t h p e r ce n tile v i s i b ili t y i m p ac t f or t h e ct r l 1_r s a n d ct r l 2_r s s ce n a r i o s

. T h e ta b le b el o w

r elie s o n t h e 22 n d h i g h t h r o u g h o u t

, i n acc ord w i t h s t a n d a rd pr actice

. T h e c h a n g e s t o t h e e s t i m at e s o f v i s i b ili t y

b e n e f it w e r e v e r y s m all

, a n d t h e r e s u l t s c o n t i n u e t o s u ppor t E P A ’ s propo s e d B A R T d ete rm i n ati o n

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 69 o f 8 0 T a b l e 33

- C o r o n a d o U n i t s 1 a nd 2 : E P A ' s V i s i b ili t y I m p r ov e me n t s f r o m N O x C o n tr o ls

base_rs ctrl1_rs ctrl2_rs ctrl5_rs ctrl6_rs

C la s s I A r e a B a s eli n e

i m p act

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S N C R

o n u n it 1 ( d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S CR

. 05

o n u n it 1 ( d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t f

r o m S CR

. 05

o n ( d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S CR

-

90 % o n bo t h

(d v )

Bo s qu e d el

A pa c h e * 0

. 4 7 0

. 0 8 0

. 2 0 0

. 2 3 0

. 2 5

B a n d elie r N M 0

. 3 7 0

. 0 7 0

. 1 8 0

. 2 0 0

. 2 2

Ch i r ic a h u a N M 0

. 2 0 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 7 0

. 0 8 0

. 0 9

Ch i r ic a h u a W A 0

. 2 1 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 7 0

. 0 9 0

. 0 9

Gali u ro W A 0

. 2 0 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 8 0

. 0 9 0

. 0 9

Gila W A 1

. 2 3 0

. 2 2 0

. 5 9 0

. 6 6 0

. 7 3

G r a n d C a n y o n N P 0

. 2 4 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 9 0

. 1 1 0

. 1 2

M azatzal W A 0

. 2 0 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 6 0

. 0 7 0

. 0 8

M e s a Ve rd e NP 0

. 4 0 0

. 0 7 0

. 1 9 0

. 2 0 0

. 2 3

M o un t B al d y W A 0

. 8 7 0

. 1 6 0

. 4 2 0

. 4 4 0

. 5 0

P et r i f ie d F or e s t

N P 1

. 2 2 0

. 1 7 0

. 4 7 0

. 5 6 0

. 6 3

P i n e M o un ta i n

W A 0

. 1 4 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 4 0

. 0 5 0

. 0 6

Sa g u a ro NP 0

. 1 2 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 4 0

. 0 4

Sa n P e dro P a r k s

W A 0

. 5 4 0

. 1 1 0

. 2 8 0

. 3 0 0

. 3 4

Sie rr a A n c h a W A 0

. 2 4 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 6 0

. 0 7 0

. 0 8

S u p e r s titi o n W A 0

. 2 1 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 6 0

. 0 6 0

. 0 7

S y c a m or e C a n y o n

W A 0

. 1 6 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 5 0

. 0 6 0

. 0 7

C u m u lat i v e dv 6

. 5 4 1

. 0 2 2

. 7 4 3

. 0 7 3

. 4 3

# a r ea s >= 0

. 5 4 0 1 2 2

M a x

. a r ea n

u m b e r

o f d a y s >= 0

. 5 d v 2 8 6 1 6 1 8 2 0

M a x

. a r ea n

u m b e r

o f d a y s >= 1

. 0 d v 1 0 2 8 8 1 0

$ / m a x d v

, m il l i o n s $17

. 7 $16

. 3 $15

. 0 $13

. 5

$ /c u mu lat i v e d v

,

m illi o n s $3

. 9 $3

. 5 $3

. 2 $2

. 9

* Bo s q u e d el A

p a c h e i s NO T i n cl u d e d i n c u m u lat i v e t o tal s a bo v e: it s s i m u lati on s w e r e n o t p a r t o f

E P A d eci s i o nm a k i n g f or t h e N P R M

N o t e : C os t s o f im p l e m e n ti n g SCR a t 0.08 l b / M M B t u on un it 2 are no t i n c l ud e d.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 70 o f 8 0 T a b l e 34

- C o r o n a d o U n i t s 1 a nd 2 : E P A ' s V i s i b ili t y I m p r ov e me n t D a ys

f r o m N O x C o n t r o ls

base_rs ctrl1_rs ctrl2_rs ctrl5_rs ctrl6_rs

C la s s I A r e a B a s eli n e

i m p act

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S N C R

o n u n it 1

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S CR

. 05 o n un it 1

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S CR

. 05 o n bo t h

(d v ) I m

pro v e m e n t

f r o m S CR

-

90 % o n bo t h

(d v )

Bo s qu e d el A pa c h e * 6 1 5 5 6

B a n d elie r N M 3 2 3 3 3

Ch i r ic a h u a N M 1 1 1 1 1

Ch i r ic a h u a W A 2 1 2 2 2

Gali u ro W A 2 1 1 2 2

Gila W A 2 7 6 1 6 1 8 2 0

G r a n d C a n y o n N P 3 1 2 2 3

M azatzal W A 1 1 1 1 1

M e s a Ve rd e NP 6 1 5 6 6

M o un t B al d y W A 1 7 2 1 2 1 3 1 5

P et r i f ie d F or e s t N P 2 8 4 1 3 1 5 1 8

P i n e M o un ta i n W A 0 0 0 0 0

Sa g u a ro NP 1 0 0 1 1

Sa n P e dro P a r k s W A 8 4 8 8 8

Sie rr a A n c h a W A 2 1 1 2 2

S u p e r s titi o n W A 0 0 0 0 0

S y c a m or e C a n y o n W A 0 0 0 0 0

C u m u lat i v e #d a y s >=

0

. 5 10 0 2 4 6 7 7 4 8 0

* Bo s q u e d el A

p a c h e i s NO T i n cl u d e d i n t h e c u mu la t i v e t o t a l s a bo v e: it s s i mu la t i o n s w e r e n o t p a r t o f E P A d eci s i onm a k i n g f or t h e N P R M

.

c) E

P A ’s B A RT De t e rm i n a t

i on

A s no t e d a

bov e

, w e h a v e c ons i d ere d t h e re m a i n i n g us e f u l li fe o f t h e sou r c e b y

i n c o r po ra ti n g a

20

- y ea r a m o r ti z a ti on p er i od i n t o o u r c on t r o l c os t ca l c u l a ti ons. Th e p re s e n ce o f

e x i s ti n g po ll u ti on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y i s r ef l e c t e d i n t h e c os t a nd v i s i b ili t y f ac t o r s a s a re su lt o f

s e l ec ti on o f t h e b a s e li n e p er i od f o r c os t ca l c u l a ti o ns a nd v i s i b ili t y m od e li n g

. F o r C o r on a do U n it

1, a b a s e li n e p e r i od ( M a y

2009 t o D ece m b e r

2010 ) w a s s e l ec t e d t h a t r e f l ec t s t h e c u r

r e n t l y

e x i s ti n g po ll u ti on c on t r o l t ec hno l o g y ( L N B w it h O F A)

. F o r C o r o n a do U n i t 2, a b a s e li n e o f

0.080

l b / MM B t u w a s s e l ec t e d t o ref l e c t t h e re qu i r e m e n t s o f t h e c ons e n t d e cr e e d ecr i b e d a bov e

. I n

a dd iti on, a s no t e d a

bov e

, w e h a v e re c e i v e d i n f o r m a ti on fr o m SRP i nd i ca ti ng t h a t t h e d e s i g n a nd

c ons t r u c ti on o f SCR a t U n it 2 h a v e a l ea d y p r o g re s s e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t w e rece i v e

a dd iti on a l do c u m e n t a ti on e s t a b li sh i n g t h e s t a t us o f t h i s eff o r t

, w e w ill t a k e t h i s i n f

o r m a ti on i n t o

c ons i d era ti on und er t h e f

ac t o r s o f “ c os t s o f c o m p l i a n ce” a nd “ e x i s ti n g c on t r o l s. ”

I n e x a mi n i n g e n er g y a nd non -a i r qu a li t y im p ac t s, w e no t e c ert a i n po t e n ti a l im p ac t s

re su lti n g f

r o m t h e us e o f a mm on i a i n j ec ti on a sso c i a t e d w it h t h e S N CR a nd SCR c on t r o l op ti ons,

bu t do no t c ons i d er t h e s e im p ac t s su ff i c i e n t e no u gh t o w arra n t e limi n a ti n g a n y o f t h e a v a il a b l e

c on t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 71 o f 8 0 O u r c ons i d e r a ti on o f

d e g ree o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t f o c us e s p r im ar i l y o n t h e

im p r ov e m e n t fr o m b a s e ca s e im p ac t s a sso c i a t e d w it h eac h c on t r o l op ti on

. W h il e eac h o f t h e

a v a il a b l e NO

x c on t r o l o p ti ons ac h i e v e s so m e d e g r ee o f v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

, w e c ons i d e r t h e

im p r ov e m e n t a sso c i a t e d w it h t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t op ti on, SCR w i t h L N B a n d O F A

, t o b e

subs t a n ti a l

. O u r c ons i d e r a ti on o f c os t o f c o m p li a n ce f o c u s e s p r im ar i l y

on t h e c os t -e f

f e c ti v e n e ss

o f eac h c on t r o l op ti on, a s m ea su re d i n c os t p e r t o n a nd i n cre m e n t a l c os t p e r t on o f eac h c on t r o l

op ti on. D e sp it e t h e fac t t h a t t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t op t i on, SCR w it h L N B a nd O F A

, i s t h e m os t

e x p e ns i v e o f t h e a v a il a

b l e c on t r o l op ti ons, w e c o n s i d er it c os t -ef f ec ti v e on a v er a g e b a s i s a s w e ll

a s on a n i n c r e m e n t a l b a s i s w h e n c o m p a r e d t o t h e n e x t m os t s t r i n g e n t op ti on, S N CR w it h L N B

a nd O F A

.

A s a re su lt

, w e c ons i d er t h e m os t s t r i n g e n t a v a il a b l e c on t r o l op ti on, SCR w it h L N B a nd

O F A

, t o b e c os t -e f

fec ti v e a nd t o re su lt i n subs t a n ti a l v i s i b ili t y im p r ov e m e n t

, a nd t h a t t h e e n er g y

a nd non -a i r

q u a li t y im p a c t s are no t su f f i c i e n t t o w arra n t e limi n a ti n g it fr o m c ons i d era ti on.

Th eref o re

, w e p r opos e t o d e t er

mi n e t h a t NO

x B A R T f

o r C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2 i s SCR w it h

L N B a nd O F A

. A t U n it 1 w e p r opos e a n e mi ss i on limit f o r NO

x o f 0.050 l b / MM B t u, b a s e d on a

r o lli n g 30

- bo il e r

- op e r a ti n g

- d a y a v e r a g e

.

A t U n it 2, w e p r opos e a n e mi ss i on limit o f 0.080 l b / MM B t u, w h i c h i s c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e

e mi ss i on limit i n t h e c ons e n t d ec r ee

. W e a c kno w l e dg e t h a t t h e e mi ss i on limit o f 0.080

l b / MM B t u e s t a

b li sh e d i n t h e c ons e n t d e c r e e w a s n o t t h e re su lt o f a B A R T f i v e-f a c t o r a n a l y s i s,

no r do e s t h e c on s e n t d ec r ee i nd i ca t e t h a t SCR a t 0.080 l b / MM B t u re p re s e n t s B A R T.

N on e t h e l e ss, g i v e n t h e c o m p li a n ce s c h e du l e e s t a b li sh e d i n t h e c ons e n t d ec r ee a nd t h e

p re limi n a r y i n f

o r m a ti on r ece i v e d fr o m SRP re g ar d i n g t h e s t a t us o f d e s i g n a nd c ons t r

u c ti on o f t h e

SCR s y s t e m

, it a

pp e ar s t h a t ac h i e v i n g a

0.050 l b / MM B t u e mi ss i on ra t e m a y no t b e t ec hn i c a l l y

fea s i b l e . Ev e n i f it i s fea s i b l e

, ac h i e v e m e n t o f t h i s e mi ss i on ra t e m a y no t b e c os t -ef

f ec ti v e

. Th eref o re

, w e a r e p r opo s i n g a n e mi ss i on limit o f 0.080 l b / MM B t u a s B A R T f o r NO

x a t U n it 2.

H o w e v e r

, i f w e do no t re ce i v e su ff i c i e n t do c u m e n t a ti on e s t a b li sh i n g t h a t a c h i e v e m e n t o f a m o r e

s t r i n g e n t limit i s i n fea s i b l e o r no t c os t -e f

fec ti v e

, t h e n w e m a y d e t er mi n e t h a t a m o re s t r i n g e n t

limit f o r t h i s un it i s re qu i re d i n ou r f i n a l a c ti on.

F o r C o r on a do U n it 2, w e are p r opos i n g a c o m p li a n ce d a t e o f J un e 1, 2014 f o r t h e NO

x limit

, c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e c ons e n t d e c ree d e s cr i b e d a bov e

.

F i n a l l y

, a t C o r on a do U n i t 1, w e are p r opos i n g t o r e qu i re c o m p li a n c e w it h t h e NO

x limit

w it h i n f i v e y e ar s o f f

i n a l p r o m u l g a ti on o f t h i s F I P c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e c o m p li a n ce tim e s f o r t h e

NO x lim i t s a t t h e o t h er

un it s. H o w e v er

, w e a r e s e e k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er a sho r t e r

c o m p li a n ce s c h e du l e m a y b e p rac ti c a b l e f o r t h i s un it

.



### C. E n f

o rc e ab i l i ty R e q u i r e m e n ts

I n o r d er t o m e e t t h e re qu i re m e n t s o f t h e R H R a nd t h e C AA a nd t o e nsu r e t h a t t h e B A R T

limit s are p rac ti ca l l y e n f

o rec e a b l e

, w e p r opos e t o i n c l ud e t h e f o ll o w i n g e l e m e n t s i n t h e F I P :

1. R e qu i re m e n t s f

o r us e o f c on ti nuous e mi ss i on m o n it o r i n g s y s t e m s ( C EM S ) (a nd a sso c i a t e d

qu a li t y a ssu r a n ce p r o c e d u re s ) t o d e t e r mi n e c o m p l i a n ce w it h NO

x a nd S O 2 limit s

.Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 72 o f 8 0 2. U s e o f

30

- d a y r o lli n g a v e r a g i n g p er i od a nd d ef i n iti on o f bo il er op e r a ti n g d a y

, c ons i s t e n t w it h

t h e B A R T G u i d e li n e s f

o r NO

x a nd SO 2

.

3. R e qu i re m e n t s f

o r a nn u a l p erf

o r m a n ce s t a c k t e s t s a nd im p l e m e n t a ti on o f C o m p li a n ce

A ssu ra n c e Mon it o r i n g ( C A M ) p l a n t o e s t a b li sh c o m p li a n ce w it h P M e mi ss i on limit s

.

4. R ec o r dk e e p i n g a nd re p o r ti n g re qu i r e m e n t s.

5. R e qu i re m e n t t o m a i n t a i n a nd op era t e t h e un it i n c l ud i n g a sso c i a t e d a i r po ll u t i on c on t r o l

e qu i p m e n t i n a m a nn er c ons i s t e n t w it h g ood a i r p o ll u ti on c on t r o l p rac ti ce s f o r mi n imi z i n g

e mi ss i ons.

Th e f o r e g o i n g re qu i re m e n t s w ou l d a pp l y t o a ll un it s.

I n a dd iti on, w e a r e p r op o s i n g sp ec i f i c c o m p li a n c e d ea d li n e s f o r eac h o f A D E Q’ s B A R T

e mi ss i ons lim i t s t h a t w e are p r opos i n g t o a p p r ov e

. I n m os t i ns t a n ce s, t h e c o n t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s

re qu i re d t o m e e t t h e s e limit s h a v e a l rea d y b ee n i n s t a ll e d. ( S ee T a b l e 3

. ) T h eref

o re

, w e a r e

p r opos i n g t o r e qu i re c o m p li a n ce w it h t h e a pp li ca b l e e mi ss i ons limit s f

o r P M a nd SO 2 w it h i n 180

d a y s o f f i n a l p r o m u l g a ti o n o f t h i s F I P

, e x ce p t t h a t a t C ho ll a U n it 2, w e p r o p os e t o re qu i re

c o m p li a n ce w it h t h e P M limit b y J a nu a r y 1, 2015

, c ons i s t e n t w it h AD E Q’ s B A R T

d e t er mi n a ti on.

R e g a r d i n g NO

x , w e p r o p os e t o a ll o w up t o f i v e y e ar s fr o m f

i n a l p r o m u l g a ti on o f t h i s F I P

f o r e a c h un it sub

j ec t t o a n e mi ss i on limit c ons i s t e n t w it h SCR

, w i t h t h e e x ce p ti on o f C o r on a do

U n it 2. Th i s p r opos a l i s b a s e d on t h e r e su lt s o f t w o a n a l y s e s o f SCR i ns t a ll a ti on tim e s, a s

su mm ar i z e d i n E P A R e g i on 6 ’ s C o m p l e t e R e spons e t o C o mm e n t s f o r N M R e g i on a l

H a z e / V i s i b ili t y

T r a nspo r t F I P. 115 A n a n a l y s i s p e r f o r m e d b y E P A R e g i on 6, b a s e d on a r e v i e w o f

a nu m b er o f sou r ce s, f

o u nd t h a t t h e d e s i g n a nd i ns t a ll a ti on o f SCR t ook b e t w ee n 18 a nd 69

m on t hs. A s e p ara t e a n a l y s i s p erf o r m e d f o r t h e U tili t y A i r R e g u l a t o r y G r ou p (UA R G) f

ound t h a t

it t ook 28 t o 62 m on t hs t o d e s i g n a nd i ns t a ll t h e 14 SCR s i n i t s s a m p l e. 116 I n t h e ca s e o f t h e

B A R T F I P f

o r S a n J u a n G e n e r a ti n g S t a ti on, E P A R e g i on 6 i n iti a l l y p r opo s e d t o a ll o w a t h r e ey ea r c o m p li a n ce tim e f

ra m e f o r d e s i g n a nd i ns t a l l a ti on o f SCR , bu t u l t im a t e l y a ll o w e d f o r a f i v ey ea r c o m p li a n ce s c h e du l e. 117 W e a l so no t e t h a t SC R i ns t a ll a ti ons o f t e n t r i g g e r P re v e n ti on o f

S i g n i f i ca n t o f D e t er i o r a ti on p er mitti n g re qu i r e m e n t s b eca us e t h e y c ons tit u t e p h y s i ca l c h a n g e s t o

a n e x i s ti n g e mi ss i on un it t h a t m a y r e su lt i n i n crea s e d e mi ss i ons o f su l f u r i c a c i d mi s t . Th eref

o r e

,

w e a r e p r opos i n g a f

i v e

- y ear c o m p li a n ce tim e f ra m e

, w h i c h w ou l d p r ov i d e a d e qu a t e tim e f o r

SCR d e s i g n a nd i ns t a ll a ti on b a s e d on t h e h i g h -e n d o f t h e ra n g e o f d a t e s i n t h e a n a l y s e s c it e d

a bov e

. F o r A p a c h e U n it 1, w e a r e a pp r ov i n g t h e s t a t e’ s NO x B A R T e mi ss i on limit

, w h i c h i s

c ons i s t e n t w it h L

N B w i t h f

l u e g a s r e c i rc u l a ti on ( F G R ) ( n a t u ra l g a s us e o n l y )

, a nd a r e a l so

p r ops i n g a f

i v e

- y e ar c o m p li a n ce tim e fra m e

. A lt hou g h w e r e a li z e t h a t t h e d e s i g n a n d i ns t a ll a ti on

re qu i re d f o r L N B w it h F G R i s no t a s c o m p l e x a s f o r SCR

, w e no t e t h a t su c h a n i ns t a ll a ti on m a y

b e sub j ec t t o t h e s a m e t i mi n g a nd s c h e du li n g i ss u e s a s SCR

, i n c l ud i n g t h e po t e n ti a l t o t r i g g er

115 A v aila b le o n

r e g u lati o n s

. g o v

, do c k et n o . E P A

- R 06

- O A R

- 2 010

- 08 4 6

, p p

. 7 0

- 72

. See al s o 76 F R at 524 0 8

- 0 9

116 J . E d w a rd C ic h a n o w icz

, I m p l e m e n tati o n Sc h e d u le f

or Sel e cti v e C a ta l y

t ic R e d u c ti o n

( S C R ) a n d F l u e Ga s

De s u l f u r izati o n ( F GD ) P ro ce s s E q u i p m e n t ( Oct

. 10

, 20 1 0)

. 117 76 F R at 52 4 08

- 0 9Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 73 o f 8 0 P re v e n ti on o f S i g n i f

i c a n t D e t er i o r a ti on p er

mitti ng re qu i re m e n t s a s a re su lt o f p h y s i c a l c h a n g e s

t h a t re su lt i n i n crea s e d c a r bon m ono x i d e ( C O) e mi ss i ons,

H o w e v e r

, w e are s ee k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er t h e s e c o m p li a n ce d a t e s a r e r ea son a b l e a nd

c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e re qu i r e m e n t o f t h e C AA a nd t h e R H R t h a t B A R T b e i n s t a ll e d “a s

e x p e d iti ous l y a s p r ac ti ca b l e

. ” W e are s p ec i f i c a l l y s ee k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er t h e ou t a g e

s c h e du l e f

o r a n y o f t h e s e un it s m a y w a rra n t a sh o r t er c o m p li a n ce s c h e du l e ( up t o f i v e y e a r s )

. I f

w e r e ce i v e i n f

o r m a ti on du r i n g t h e c o mm e n t p er i o d t h a t e s t a b li sh e s t h a t a s ho r t er c o m p li a n c e

tim efra m e i s a

pp r o p r i a t e f

o r on e o r m o r e o f t h e s e un it s, w e m a y f i n a li z e a d i ffere n t c o m p li a n ce

d a t e

.

V III. Su m m a r y o f E P A ’ s P r o p os e d A ct i o n

B a s e d on t h e a v a il a

b l e c o n t r o l t ec hno l o g i e s a nd t h e f i v e f ac t o r s d i s c uss e d i n m o re d e t a il

b e l o w , E P A i s p r opos i ng t o re qu i re t h e s e f a c iliti e s t o m ee t NO

x , PM 10 a nd SO 2 e mi ss i on l imit s a s

li s t e d i n T a

b l e 35. W it h t

h e e x ce p ti on o f A p ac h e U n it 1, t h e NO

x e mi ss i on limit s i n T a b l e 35 are

p r opos e d a s p a r t o f

E P A ’ s F I P

, b a s e d on t h e f i v e f ac t o r a n a l y s e s su mm ar i z e d i n S ec ti on II I

. A

. Th e PM 10 a nd SO 2 e mi s s i on limit s i n T a b l e 35 ar e t a k e n fr o m A D E Q’ s B A R T d e t er mi n a ti ons f

o r

t h e s e f a c iliti e s, p r opos e d f

o r E P A a pp r o v a l i n t h i s ac ti on. E P A i s s ee k i n g c o mm e n t on a lt er n a ti v e

PM 10 a nd SO 2 e mi s s i ons limit s f o r A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it s 2 a nd 3 ; C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t

U n it s 2, 3 a nd 4 ; a nd C o r on a do U n it s 1 a nd 2 a s d e s cr i b e d i n S ec ti on V I

. B o f t h e F e d e r a l

R e g i s t er no ti c e f o r t h i s p r opos e d ac ti on. W e a r e a l so s ee k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er a t e s t m e t hod

o t h er t h a n E P A M e t hod 201 / 202 shou l d b e a ll o w e d o r re qu i r e d f o r e s t a b l i sh i n g c o m p li a n c e w it h

t h e PM 10 lim i t s t h a t w e are p r opos i n g t o a pp r o v e

. F i n a l l y

, w e a re p r opos i n g c o m p li a n ce d a t e s

a nd sp ec i f

i c re qu i r e m e n t s f

o r m on it o r i n g

, r ec o r d k ee p i n g

, re p o r ti n g a nd e q u i p m e n t op era ti on a nd

m a i n t e n a n ce f

o r a ll o f t h e un it s c ov ere d b y t h i s ac ti on. O u r p r opos e d c o m p li a n ce d a t e s are

su mm ar i z e d i n T a

b l e 36. W e are s e e k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er t h e s e c o m p li a n ce d a t e s a r e

rea son a b l e a nd c ons i s t e n t w it h t h e re qu i re m e n t o f t h e C AA a nd t h e R H R t h a t B A R T b e i ns t a ll e d

“a s e x p e d iti ous l y a s p r a c ti ca b l e

. ” W e a r e a l so t a k i n g c o mm e n t on w h e t h er i t w ou l d b e

t ec hn i ca l l y f

e a s i b l e a nd c os t -eff

e c ti v e f o r C o r o n a d o U n it 2 t o m ee t a n e mi ss i ons limit o f 0.050

l b / MM B t u f

o r NO

x .Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 74 o f 8 0 T a b l e 35

- Su m m a r y o f B AR T E m i ss i o n Li m i ts

U n it E mi ss i on li m it a ti on ( l b / MM B t u )

(r o lli n g 30

- bo il e r- op e ra t i n g

- d a y a v e r a g e )

NO

x PM 10 SO 2

A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 1 0.056 0.0075 0.00064

A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 2 0.050 0.03 0.15

A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 3 0.050 0.03 0.15

C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t U n it 2 0.050 0.015 0.15

C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t U n it 3 0.050 0.015 0.15

C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t U n it 4 0.050 0.015 0.15

C o r on a do G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 1 0.050 0.03 0.08

C o r on a do G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 2 0.080 0.03 0.08Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 75 o f 8 0 T a b l e 36

- Su m m a r y o f B AR T C o m p li a n ce D a t es

U n it C o m p li a n ce D a t e

NO

x PM 10 SO 2

A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 1 F i v e y e ar s 180 d a y s 180 d a y s

A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 2 F i v e y e ar s 180 d a y s 180 d a y s

A p ac h e G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 3 F i v e y e ar s 180 d a y s 180 d a y s

C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t U n it 2 F i v e y e ar s J a nu a r y 1, 201 5 180 d a y s

C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t U n it 3 F i v e y e ar s 180 d a y s 180 d a y s

C ho ll a P o w er P l a n t U n it 4 F i v e y e ar s 180 d a y s 180 d a y s

C o r on a do G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 1 F i v e y e ar s 180 d a y s 180 d a y s

C o r on a do G e n e ra ti n g S t a ti on U n it 2 J un e 1, 201 4 180 d a y s 180 d a y sAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 76 o f 8 0 

### V. A ppe n d ix A: L is t i ng of M o del i n g -R el a t ed F i l es

Th e f o ll o w i n g f

il e s a r e a l l l o ca t e d i n t h e do c k e t i n f o l d er G- 15

.

L I ST S

rea d m e

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a nd p r o ce ss i n g a nd p re s e n ti n g m od e l ou t pu t

c 1_ ar e a

_ li s t _3p l a n t s. t x t

li s t o f Cl a ss I a r ea s

A Z

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N PR M_s c e n ar i os. t x t

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l ookups. x ls

l ookup t a b l e s f o r s ce n ar i o n a m e s a nd Cl a ss I a re a s ;

i n c l ud e s so m e a dd iti on a l b r i ef c h ar a c t er i z a ti on o f s ce n ar i o s

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_ N PR M_ m od e l

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_ C o r on a do_ F IN A L 2. x l s x

C os t s, T P Y

, a nd % e mi ss i on re du c ti ons ca l c u l a ti ons

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bo t h UN C " ...do ll ar

p er dv_ a n a l y s i s_ f

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" m a s t e r " sp r ea ds h ee t o f m od e li n g e mi ss i ons ;

i n c l ud e s so m e C A M D d a t a f o r p i c k i n g m a x e mi ss i on d a y ;

ref e r s t o sp ec i a ti on sp r ea dsh ee t s ;

h a s g / s e mi ss i on ra t e s f

o r C A L P U F F i npu t li n e s

A Z M a x E mi ss i on D a t e s. x l s x

m a x im u m d a i l y e mi ss i ons fr o m C A M D d a t a f o r m od e li ng

( p re p a re d b y

E P A , no t U N C )

2006 F i n a l U n c on t r o ll e d U tili t y R e s O il B l r

p m S p ec i a t i on P r o f

il e

_ A E PC O-U n it 1 -f

ilt P M.x l s

2006 F i n a l D r y B o tt o m PC

_ F GD _E SP p m S p ec i a ti on P r o f il e

_ A E PC O-U n it 2 -f

i lt P M

. x l s

2006 F i n a l D r y B o tt o m PC

_ F GD _E SP p m S p ec i a ti on P r o f il e

_ A E PC O-U n it 3 -f

i lt P M

. x l s

2006 F i n a l D r y B o tt o m PC

_ F GD

_ FF p m S p e c i a ti on P r o f il e

_ C ho ll a- U n it 1 -f

ilt P M. x l sAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 77 o f 8 0 2006 F i n a l D r y B o tt o m PC

_ S cr ubb er p m S p ec i a ti on P r o f

il e

_ C ho ll a- U n it 2 -f

ilt P M. x l s

2006 F i n a l D r y B o tt o m PC

_ F GD

_ FF p m S p e c i a ti on P r o f il e

_ C ho ll a- U n it 3 -f

ilt P M. x l s

2006 F i n a l D r y B o tt o m PC

_ F GD

_ FF p m S p e c i a ti on P r o f il e

_ C ho ll a- U n it 4 -f

ilt P M. x l s

P M sp ec i a ti on sp rea dsh e e t s

ref e rre d t o b y A Z_ B A R T _sou rce s_ a ll

- T a sk7

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M O D EL O U T P U TS

N PR _v i s_ t a b l e s_120702. x l s

su mm a r y dv a nd $ / dv t a

b l e s us e d i n N PR M it s e l f

A Z R H F I P _T S D _v i s_su mm

_ t a b l e s. x l s x

UN C a nd E P A C A L P U F F ou t pu t t o suppo r t N PR M

- S u mm a r y

dv a nd $ / dv t a

b l e s, a nd # d a y s >= 0.5 d v, us e d i n T S D

- D i ff e r s fr o m N PR M t a

b l e s i n h a v i n g so m e up d a t e d c os t s,

a nd c ons i s t e n t l y

us e s 22 n d t h ree

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h i g h f o r

" 98 t h p e r ce n til e " v i s i b ili t y im p ac t s

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A Z R H F I P _T S D

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_v i s x

. x ls x

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A Z R H F I P _T S D

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. x ls x

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- t a b l e s o f dv a nd # d a y s ov er

0.5 a nd 1.0 dv ;

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m e n t

( g ra phs on l y f

o r 8b, M V I S B K

= 8 a nd 2 0 % b e s t b a c kg r ound )

- % d i ff e re n c e s b e t w ee n t h e v ar i ous v i s i b ili t y

m e t hods 6 a , 6b, 8 a , 8b )

ae p_ a z _un it 2

- 3_do ll ar

p e r dv_ a n a l y s i s_ f

i n a l w it hp l o t s2. x ls

c ho_ a z _un it 2

- 4_do ll ar

p e r dv_ a n a l y s i s_ f

i n a l w it hp l o t s.x l s

s r p_ a z _un it 1

- 2_do ll ar

p e r dv_ a n a l y s i s_ f

i n a l w it hp l o t s.x l s

UN C C A L P U FF ou t

pu t; m u c h i n c l ud e d i n UN C r e po r t f o r W A 5

- 12 T a sk 8

- t a b l e s o f dv, t ons / dv, $ / dv (ca l c

. f o r e ac h a r e a & y ea r) ;

- b ar g r a phs o f 98 t h p e rc e n til e im p a i r

m e n t a nd

b e n ef it ( i n " a r ea im p ac t s " t a

bs )

(NO TE : Th e s e do NO T i n c l ud e C o r on a do " m od r e v3 " r e su lt s f o r

s ce n ar i os : c t r l 1_

r s, c t r l 2

_ r s, c t r l 6_

r s )

C o r on a do_

m od re v3_n8 2 2_v i s x

. x ls x

S upp l e m e n t a l C o r on a do re su lt s, f o r s ce n ar i os :

b a s e _q, c t r l 1_

r s, c t r l 2_ r s

, c t r l 6_ r s

(N o t rea l l y

n e e d e d s i n c e c on t e n t s a l r e a d y i n c l ud e d

i n t h e a bov e A Z R H F I P

_

N PR M_ C o r on a do_v i s x

. x l s x

,

a nd b a s e _q s c e n ar i on i n C o r on a do_b a s e q_ N PR M

. z i p x b e l o w

. )Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 78 o f 8 0 C o r on a do_bosq_n822_v i s x

. x l s x

V i s i b ili t y r e su lt s f

o r C o r on a do a t B osq u e d e l A p a c h e on l y

N o t c ons i d ere d f

o r N PR M, bu t so m e i s i n T S D

CA L P U FF M O D EL I N P U T A N D O U T P U T F I LE S

Th e s e f il e s a re t oo l a r g e t o i n c l ud e i n t h e e l ec t r on i c do c k e t , bu t t h e y a re a v a il a b l e f o r

e x a mi n a ti on i n t h e h ar d c o p y o f t h e do c k e t l o c a t e d a t t h e E P A R e g i on 9 o f f i ce

. S ee t h e F e d era l

R e g i s t er no ti c e f o r t h i s p r opos e d ac ti on, S ec ti on I

. B

., f o r m o r e i n f

o r m a ti on on ac c e ss i n g t h e

h ar d c o p y do c k e t

.

A Z

_ N PR M_ z i p_ f

il e _no t e s. t x t

N o t e s a bou t t h e m od e li n g z i p f

il e c on t e n t s a nd o r g a n i z a ti on ;

i n c l ud e s m od e l f

il e n a mi n g c on v e n ti on

A Z

_ N PR M_ z i p_ f

il e

_ li s ti n g

. t x t

F u ll li s ti n g o f f

il e s w it h i n t h e z i p f

il e s

Z i p f il e s

A p ac h e

_ ca l pos t

_ N PR M. z i p x

A p ac h e

_ ca l pu f

f

_ N PR M. z i p x

A p ac h e _pos t c a l pos t

_ N PR M. z i p x

A p ac h e _pos t u til

_

N PR M. z i p x

A p ac h e _v i s x

_

N PR M. z i p x

C ho ll a

_ ca l pos t

_ N PR M. z i px

C ho ll a

_ ca l pu ff

_ N PR M. z i px

C ho ll a _pos t ca l pos t

_ N P R M. z i p x

C ho ll a _pos t u til

_

N P R M. z i px

C ho ll a _v i s x

_ N PR M

. z i p x

C o r on a do_ ca l pos t

_ N PR M. z i p x

C o r on a do_ ca l pu f

f

_ N PR M. z i p x

C o r on a do_pos t ca l pos t

_ N PR M. z i p x

C o r on a do_pos t u til

_

N P R M. z i p x

C o r on a do_v i s x

_

N PR M

. z i px

N o t e t h a t re su lt s f

o r C o r o n a do " m od r e v 3 "

,

t h a t i s, c t r l 1_

r s, c t r l 2_ r s, a nd c t r l 6_

r s ( bu t no t b a s e _q )

are a l rea d y i n c l ud e d i n t h e a bov e

. C o r on a do_

m od re v3_n8 2 2_v i s x

. x ls xAr i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 79 o f 8 0 E x tr a f il e s ( n o t re li e d o n f

o r N P R M)

A Z

_ e x t ra

_ z i p_ f il e _no t e s. t x t

no t e on d i ffe r e n t n a mi n g c onv e n ti on f o r bosq f il e s

C o r on a do_b a s e q_

N PR M

. z i p x

C o r on a do_b a s e q_ z i p_ f

il e

_ li s ti n g

. t x t

C A L P U F F i npu t a nd ou t pu t f il e s f o r C o r on a d o

f o r s ce n ar i o b a s e

_ q on l y ( no t i n c l . bosq )

w h i c h h a s L

N B ( no SCR ) on bo t h un it s

C o r on a do_bosq_

N PR M. z i p x

C o r on a do_bosq_ z i p_ f

il e

_ li s ti n g

. t x t

C A L P U F F i npu t a nd ou t pu t f il e s f o r C o r on a d o

im p ac t s a t B osqu e d e l A p ac h e on l y ;

i n c l ud e d i n T S D bu t no t c ons i d ere d b y

E P A f o r N PR M. ( i n c l ud e s bosq b a s e _q )Ar i z on a R e g i on a l H a z e T ec hn i ca l S uppo r t D o c u m e n t

– P a g e 80 o f 8 0 

### V I. A ppe n d ix B: V i s i b i l ity I m p a ct a nd B e n ef it T a bl esA E P C O A p a ch e

, A r i zon a R H F I P

, J u l y 2012

98 t h p e r c e n t il e d e l t a d e c i v i e ws ( A ve r a g e o f 8 t h h i g h s f o r 200 1 , 2002, 2 003 ; 22 nd h i g h f o r 2001

- 2003)

V i s i b ilit y I m p a c t s

, dv

V i s ibilit y m e thod: C on t r o l S c e n ar io

v is 8

, 20 b est

C l a s s I A r ea ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd

C h i r i ca hu a NM 3 .33 3

. 41 2.88 2

. 97 2.56 2

. 59 1.81 1

. 90

C h i r i ca hu a W il d. 3.42 3

. 46 2.91 2

. 93 2.44 2

. 47 1.75 1

. 87

Ga li u r o W il d

. 2.18 2

. 22 1.81 1

. 83 1.56 1

. 57 1.11 1

. 12

G il a W il d

. 0.64 0

. 63 0.49 0

. 49 0.38 0

. 41 0.25 0

. 26

M a z a t z a l W il d

. 0.27 0

. 28 0.22 0

. 23 0.20 0

. 19 0.15 0

. 14

M o un t B a l d y W il d

. 0.27 0

. 28 0.21 0

. 22 0.16 0

. 17 0.10 0

. 10

S a g u ar o N P 2.50 2

. 49 2.15 2

. 12 1.83 1

. 84 1.34 1

. 33

S i e rr a A nch a W il d

. 0.29 0

. 29 0.23 0

. 23 0.19 0

. 19 0.15 0

. 15

S upe r s titi o n W il d

. 0.60 0

. 61 0.48 0

. 51 0.41 0

. 42 0.30 0

. 30

M a x i m um 3.42 3

. 46 2.91 2

. 97 2.56 2

. 59 1.81 1

. 90

C u m u l a ti v e ( s u m) 13.49 13

. 67 11.38 11

. 53 9.74 9

. 84 6.95 7

. 16

V i s i b ilit y B e n e f it s

, dv

V i s i b ilit y m e t h o d: C on t r o l S c e n ar io

v is 8

, 20 b est

C l a s s I A r ea ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd

C h i r i c a hu a N M 0.44 0

. 44 0.77 0

. 82 1.52 1

. 51

C h i r i ca hu a W il d. 0.51 0

. 53 0.98 1

. 00 1.67 1

. 59

Ga li u r o W il d

. 0.37 0

. 39 0.62 0

. 65 1.06 1

. 10

G il a W il d

. 0.15 0

. 14 0.26 0

. 22 0.39 0

. 37

M a z a t z a l W il d

. 0.04 0

. 05 0.07 0

. 09 0.12 0

. 14

M o un t B a l d y W il d

. 0.06 0

. 07 0.11 0

. 11 0.16 0

. 18

S a g u ar o N P 0.35 0

. 38 0.67 0

. 66 1.17 1

. 16

S i e rr a A nch a W il d

. 0.06 0

. 06 0.10 0

. 10 0.14 0

. 14

S upe r s titi o n W il d

. 0.11 0

. 10 0.19 0

. 19 0.30 0

. 31

M a x i m um 0.51 0

. 53 0.98 1

. 00 1.67 1

. 59

C u m u l a ti v e ( s u m) 2.11 2

. 14 3.75 3

. 83 6.53 6

. 51

C h i r i c a hu a W il de r ne s s h a s t h e g r e a t e s t 22 n d h i gh i m p ac ts f o r t h e b a s e c a s e; C h i r i c a hu a N M h a s t h e g r e a t e s t f o r t h e c o nt ro

C h i r i c a hu a W il de r ne s s h a s t h e g r e a t e st b e n e f it i n 22 n d h i g h f o r a l l t h e c o n t ro l s cen ar i o s. b a se : B a s e ( O F A ) c t r l 1

_ r : L N B c t r l 2

_ r : S NC R c t r l 3

_ s : S C R ; w / SO4

b a se : B a s e ( O F A ) c t r l 1

_ r : L N B c t r l 2

_ r : S NC R c t r l 3

_ s : S C R ; w / SO4

### AE P C O A p a ch e

, A r i z on a R H F I P

, J u l y 2012

N umb e r o f d ay s w i t h d e l t a d e c i v i e w imp a c t s g r e a t e r t h a n o r e qu a l t o 0

. 5 d v in 2001

- 2003 ; A ve r a ge



### V i s i b ili t y I mp a c t s

, # Day s m 0

. 5 dv

V i s i b ili t y m e t hod:

v i s 8

, 20 b e st

C l a s s I Ar ea S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg

C h i r i ca hu a NM 383 128 354 118 320 107 257 86

C h i r i c a hu a W il d. 349 116 325 108 281 94 231 77

Gali uro W il d. 138 46 118 39 108 36 79 26

Gila W il d. 35 12 21 7 10 3 3 1

Ma z a t z al W il d. 9 3 3 1 1 0 .3 0 0 .0

M oun t B al d y W il d. 5 2 2 0 .7 1 0 .3 0 0 .0

S a g u a ro NP 241 80 224 75 203 68 183 61

S i err a A nch a W il d. 7 2 3 1 3 1 1 0 .3

S uper s t i t i on W il d. 28 9 22 7 14 5 3 1

M a x i m um 383 128 354 118 320 107 257 86

C u m u l a ti v e ( s u m) 1195 398 1072 357 941 314 757 252



### V i s i b ili t y Be n e f i t s

, # Day s m 0

. 5 dv

V i s i b ili t y me t hod:

v i s 8

, 20 b e st

C l a ss I Ar ea S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg

C h i r i ca hu a NM 29 10 63 21 126 42

C h i r i ca hu a W il d. 24 8 68 23 118 39

Gali uro W il d. 20 7 30 10 59 20

Gila W il d. 14 5 25 8 32 11

Ma z a t z al W il d. 6 2 8 3 9 3

M oun t B al d y W il d. 3 1 4 1 5 2

S a g u a ro NP 17 6 38 13 58 19

S i err a A nch a W il d. 4 1 4 1 6 2

S uper s t i t i on W il d. 6 2 14 5 25 8

M a x i m um 29 10 68 23 126 42

C u m u l a ti v e ( s u m) 123 41 254 85 438 146

C h i r i c a hu a N M h a s t he g re a t e s t nu m b er o f d a ys over 0

. 5 dv f or t he b a s e c a s e a nd all con t ro l s cen a r i o s.

C h i r i c a hu a N M h a s t he g re a t e s t d e c re a s e i n nu m b er o f d a ys over 0

. 5 dv f or all con t ro l s cen a r i o s,

e x cep t S N C R

, f or w h i ch C h i rc a hu a W il derne ss h a s t he g re a t e s t. b a s e : B a se

( O F A) c t r l 1

_ r : L N B c t r l 2

_ r : S N CR c t r l 3 _s: S C R;

w / SO4 b a s e : B a se

( O F A) c t r l 1

_ r : L N B c t r l 2

_ r : S N CR c t r l 3 _s: S C R;

w / SO4AEPCOApache,ArizonaRHFIP,July201298thpercentiledeltadeciviews(8thhighforeachof2001,2002,2003;theirAverage;and22ndhighfor2001-2003period)VisibilityImpacts,dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase:Base(OFA)ctrl1_r:LNBctrl2_r:SNCRctrl3_s:SCR;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03Chiricahua NM3.213.273.503.333.412.792.892.972.882.972.472.622.602.562.591.631.941.851.811.90ChiricahuaWild.3.403.393.463.423.462.932.912.882.912.932.442.472.422.442.471.871.721.671.751.87GaliuroWild.1.812.112.622.182.221.521.642.271.811.831.291.421.971.561.570.941.061.341.111.12GilaWild.0.670.750.500.640.630.490.580.400.490.490.360.450.330.380.410.220.300.230.250.26MazatzalWild.0.300.270.230.270.280.240.230.200.220.230.220.210.170.200.190.160.160.120.150.14MountBaldyWild.0.290.280.240.270.280.220.230.180.210.220.170.180.140.160.170.090.130.090.100.10SaguaroNP2.302.772.442.502.491.992.382.092.152.121.692.031.771.831.841.211.371.441.341.33SierraAnchaWild.0.290.300.280.290.290.210.240.220.230.230.190.210.180.190.190.130.160.140.150.15SuperstitionWild.0.610.680.490.600.610.480.560.410.480.510.420.470.340.410.420.300.280.310.300.30Maximum3.403.393.503.423.462.932.912.972.912.972.472.622.602.562.591.871.941.851.811.90Cumulative(sum)12.8713.8313.7613.4913.6710.8611.6711.6011.3811.539.2410.059.929.749.846.557.127.196.957.16VisibilityBenefits,dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase:Base(OFA)ctrl1_r:LNBctrl2_r:SNCRctrl3_s:SCR;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03ChiricahuaNM0.430.380.530.440.440.740.650.910.770.821.581.331.661.521.51ChiricahuaWild.0.470.480.580.510.530.960.921.050.981.001.531.671.791.671.59GaliuroWild.0.280.470.350.370.390.520.690.650.620.650.871.051.271.061.10GilaWild.0.180.180.110.150.140.320.300.170.260.220.460.460.270.390.37MazatzalWild.0.060.040.030.040.050.080.060.060.070.090.140.110.110.120.14MountBaldyWild.0.070.050.060.060.070.120.110.100.110.110.190.150.150.160.18SaguaroNP0.310.390.360.350.380.610.740.670.670.661.091.401.001.171.16SierraAnchaWild.0.070.060.060.060.060.100.090.090.100.100.150.140.140.140.14SuperstitionWild.0.130.120.090.110.100.190.220.150.190.190.310.410.180.300.31Maximum0.470.480.580.510.530.960.921.050.981.001.581.671.791.671.59Cumulative(sum)2.012.162.162.112.143.633.783.843.753.836.336.716.576.536.51ChiricahuaWilderness hasthegreatest22nd highimpactsforthebasecase;ChiricahuaNMhasthegreatestforthecontrolscenarios.ChiricahuaWilderness hasthegreatestbenefitin22nd highforallthecontrolscenarios.AEPCOApache,ArizonaRHFIP,July2012Numberofdayswithdeltadeciviewimpactsgreaterthanorequalto0.5dv;foreachof2001,2002,2003;theirSum,andtheirAverage(roundedtointegerunless<1)VisibilityImpacts,#Daysm0.5dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase:Base(OFA)ctrl1_r:LNBctrl2_r:SNCRctrl3_s:SCR;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgChiricahuaNM13012612738312811812011635411810710810532010785898325786ChiricahuaWild.1281141073491161131081043251089598882819481816923177GaliuroWild.4746451384638394111839353538108362526287926GilaWild.121673512710421746010303031MazatzalWild.351931203101010.300000.0MountBaldyWild.2215211020.710010.300000.0SaguaroNP80837824180747674224756471682036858596618361SierraAnchaWild.23272210312103101010.3SuperstitionWild.1011728979622754514511131Maximum13012612738312811812011635411810710810532010785898325786Cumulative(sum)41440637511953983613663451072357313324304941314250260247757252VisibilityBenefits,#Daysm0.5dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase:Base(OFA)ctrl1_r:LNBctrl2_r:SNCRctrl3_s:SCR;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgChiricahuaNM126112910231822632145374412642ChiricahuaWild.1563248331619682347333811839GaliuroWild.9742071211730102220175920GilaWild.5631458107258121373211MazatzalWild.231623418335193MountBaldyWild.111311214122152SaguaroNP67417616121038132224125819SierraAnchaWild.022410224122262SuperstitionWild.321625721459106258Maximum157112910331822682347374412642Cumulative(sum)53403012341101827125485164146128438146ChiricahuaNMhasthegreatestnumberofdaysover0.5dvforthebasecaseandallcontrolscenarios.ChiricahuaNMhasthegreatestdecreaseinnumberofdaysover0.5dvforallcontrolscenarios,AEPCOApache,ArizonaRHFIP,July2012Numberofdayswithdeltadeciviewimpactsgreaterthanorequalto1.0dv;foreachof2001,2002,2003;theirSum,andtheirAverage(roundedtointegerunless<1)VisibilityImpacts,#Daysm1.0dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase:Base(OFA)ctrl1_r:LNBctrl2_r:SNCRctrl3_s:SCR;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgChiricahuaNM72787522575596564188634554521515026394110635ChiricahuaWild.71656720368645753174585042431354537352910134GaliuroWild.2619277224201824622114141846156913289GilaWild.05052040410303100000.0MazatzalWild.00000.000000.000000.000000.0MountBaldyWild.10010.300000.000000.000000.0SaguaroNP5147561545141425113445373542114381924287124SierraAnchaWild.11020.701010.300000.000000.0SuperstitionWild.222621203111020.700000.0Maximum72787522575646564188635054521515037394110635Cumulative(sum)22421722766822318518919256618914714915545115088107111306102VisibilityBenefits,#Daysm1.0dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase:Base(OFA)ctrl1_r:LNBctrl2_r:SNCRctrl3_s:SCR;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgChiricahuaNM1313113712272423742546393411940ChiricahuaWild.78142910212324682334303810234GaliuroWild.61310312592692010144415GilaWild.010100202105052MazatzalWild.000000000000000MountBaldyWild.100101001010010SaguaroNP105520714121440133223288328SierraAnchaWild.100101102111021SuperstitionWild.102311124122262Maximum1313143712272424742546393811940Cumulative(sum)3928351023477687221772136110116362121ChiricahuaNMhasthegreatestnumberofdaysover1.0dvforthebasecaseandallcontrolscenarios.ChiricahuaNMhasthegreatestdecreaseinnumberofdaysover1.0dvforallcontrolscenarios.ChiricahuaNMChiricahuaWild.GaliuroGilaMazatzalMountBaldySaguaroNPSierraAnchaSuperstitionbase:Base(OFA)3.413.462.220.630.280.282.490.290.61ctrl1_r:LNB2.972.931.830.490.230.222.120.230.51ctrl2_r:SNCR2.592.471.570.410.190.171.840.190.42ctrl3_s:SCR;w/SO41.901.871.120.260.140.101.330.150.300.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0AEPCOApache2001-2003VisibilityImpacts,EPARHFIPJuly2012(dv)Visibilitymethod:vis8,20bestChiricahuaNMChiricahuaWild.GaliuroGilaMazatzalMountBaldySaguaroNPSierraAnchaSuperstitionbase:Base(OFA)ctrl1_r:LNB0.440.530.390.140.050.070.380.060.10ctrl2_r:SNCR0.821.000.650.220.090.110.660.100.19ctrl3_s:SCR;w/SO41.511.591.100.370.140.181.160.140.310.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8AEPCOApache2001-2003VisibilityBenefits,EPARHFIPJuly2012(dv)Visibilitymethod:vis8,20bestA P S C ho ll a

, A r i zon a R H F I P

, J u l y 2012

98 t h p e r c e n t il e d e l t a d e c i v i e ws ( A ve r a g e o f 8 t h h i g h s f o r 200 1 , 2002, 2 003 ; 22 nd h i g h f o r 2001

- 2003)

V i s i b ilit y I m p a c t s

, dv

V i s ibilit y m e thod: C on t r o l S c e n ar io

v is 8

, 20 b est

C l a s s I A r ea ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd

C a p it o l R ee f N P 1.33 1

. 46 1.08 1

. 19 0.60 0

. 70

Ga li u r o W il d

. 0.44 0

. 45 0.37 0

. 40 0.30 0

. 31

G il a W il d

. 0.71 0

. 70 0.61 0

. 61 0.47 0

. 48

Gra nd C a n y o n N P 2.49 2

. 22 2.10 1

. 85 1.30 1

. 16

M a z a t z a l W il d

. 1.20 1

. 19 1.04 1

. 03 0.75 0

. 76

Me s a V e r d e N P 1.33 1

. 34 1.07 1

. 08 0.61 0

. 63

M o un t B a l d y W il d

. 1.20 1

. 21 0.97 0

. 95 0.69 0

. 70

P e t r i f ie d F o r es t NP 4 .49 4

. 53 4.06 4

. 06 3.22 3

. 19

P i n e M o un t a i n W il d

. 0.84 0

. 85 0.72 0

. 73 0.52 0

. 54

S a g u ar o N P 0.30 0

. 30 0.27 0

. 28 0.22 0

. 25

S i e rr a A nch a W il d

. 1.37 1

. 36 1.16 1

. 17 0.82 0

. 85

S upe r s titi o n W il d

. 1.20 1

. 27 1.04 1

. 10 0.75 0

. 76

S y c a m or e C a n y o n W il d

. 1.36 1

. 42 1.10 1

. 15 0.73 0

. 75

M a x i m um 4.49 4

. 53 4.06 4

. 06 3.22 3

. 19

C u m u l a ti v e ( s u m) 18.26 18

. 30 15.59 15

. 59 10.99 11

. 09

V i s i b ilit y B e n e f it s

, dv

V i s i b ilit y m e t h o d: C on t r o l S c e n ar io

v is 8

, 20 b est

C l a s s I A r ea ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd ' 01

- ' 03

Avg ' 01

- ' 03

22 nd

C a p it o l R ee f N P 0.25 0

. 27 0.73 0

. 76

Ga li u r o W il d

. 0.07 0

. 05 0.14 0

. 14

G il a W il d

. 0.10 0

. 09 0.25 0

. 22

Gra nd C a n y o n N P 0.39 0

. 37 1.19 1

. 06

M a z a t z a l W il d

. 0.16 0

. 16 0.45 0

. 43

Me s a V e r d e N P 0.26 0

. 26 0.72 0

. 70

M o un t B a l d y W il d

. 0.23 0

. 27 0.50 0

. 52

P e t r i f ie d F o r es t NP 0 .43 0

. 47 1.27 1

. 34

P i n e M o un t a i n W il d

. 0.12 0

. 12 0.32 0

. 31

S a g u ar o N P 0.03 0

. 02 0.08 0

. 05

S i e rr a A nch a W il d

. 0.21 0

. 20 0.55 0

. 51

S upe r s titi o n W il d

. 0.16 0

. 17 0.45 0

. 51

S y c a m or e C a n y o n W il d

. 0.26 0

. 27 0.62 0

. 68

M a x i m um 0.43 0

. 47 1.27 1

. 34

C u m u l a ti v e ( s u m) 2.67 2

. 71 7.27 7

. 21

P e t r i f i e d F or e s t h a s t h e g r e a t e s t 2 2 n d h i gh i m p ac ts f o r t h e b a s e c a s e , a nd f o r t h e c o n t ro l s ce n ar i o s.

P e t r i f i e d F or e s t h a s t h e g r e a t e st b e n e f it i n 22 n d h i g h f o r a l l t h e c o n t ro l s cen ar i o s. b a se

_ R : B a s e ( L N B ) c t r l 1

_ r : S NC R c t r l 2

_ r2 : S CR b a se

_ R : B a s e ( L N B ) c t r l 1

_ r : S NC R c t r l 2

_ r2 : S CR

### AP S C ho ll a

, A r i z on a R H F I P

, J u l y 2012

N u m b e r o f d a y s w i t h d e l t a d e c i v i ew i m p a ct s g r e a t e r t h a n o r e qu a l t o 0

. 5 d v i n 2001

- 2003; A v e ra ge



### V i s i b ili t y I m p a c t s

, # D ay s m 0.5 dv

V i s ibili t y m et hod:

v i s 8

, 20 b e st

Cl a ss I A r ea S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg

C a p i t o l R ee f NP 56 19 52 17 32 11

G a li u r o W il d. 15 5 12 4 7 2

G il a W il d. 50 17 39 13 19 6

G r a nd C a ny o n NP 84 28 74 25 57 19

M a z a t z a l W il d. 104 35 89 30 57 19

Me s a V e r d e NP 99 33 77 26 36 12

M o unt B a l dy W il d. 86 29 73 24 45 15

P e t r i fi e d F o r e s t NP 756 252 739 246 696 232

Pi n e M o unt a i n W il d. 58 19 45 15 25 8

S a g u a r o NP 11 4 6 2 3 1

S i e rr a A n c h a W il d. 122 41 107 36 74 25

S up e r s t i t i o n W il d. 77 26 68 23 47 16

S y c a m o r e C a ny o n W il d. 73 24 59 20 36 12

Ma xi m um 756 252 739 246 696 232

C u m u l a t i v e ( s u m) 1591 530 1440 480 1134 378



### V i s i b ili t y B e n e f i t s

, # D ay s m 0.5 dv

V i s i b ili ty m e th o d:

v i s 8

, 20 b e st

Cl a ss I A r ea S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg

C a p i t o l R ee f NP 4 1 24 8

G a li u r o W il d. 3 1 8 3

G il a W il d. 11 4 31 10

G r a nd C a ny o n NP 10 3 27 9

M a z a t z a l W il d. 15 5 47 16

M e sa V e r d e NP 22 7 63 21

M o unt B a l dy W il d. 13 4 41 14

P e t ri f i e d F o r e s t NP 17 6 60 20

Pi n e M o unt a i n W il d. 13 4 33 11

S a g u a r o NP 5 2 8 3

S i e rr a A n c h a W il d. 15 5 48 16

S up e r s t i t i o n W il d. 9 3 30 10

S y c a m o r e C a ny o n W il d. 14 5 37 12

Ma xi m um 22 7 63 21

C u m u l a t i v e ( s u m) 151 50 457 152

P e t ri f i e d F o r e s t h a s th e g r e a t e s t nu m b e r o f d a ys o v e r 0

. 5 dv f o r th e b a s e c a s e a nd a ll c o nt r o l s c e n a ri o s.

Me s a V e r d e h a s th e g r e a t e s t d e c r e as e i n nu m b e r o f d a ys o v e r 0

. 5 dv f o r a ll c o nt r o l s c e n a ri o s. b as e

_ R: B as e ct r l1 _r : S N C R ct r l2 _r 2 : S CR

b as e

_ R: B as e ct r l1 _r : S N C R ct r l2 _r 2 : S CRAPSCholla,ArizonaRHFIP,July201298thpercentiledeltadeciviews(8thhighforeachof2001,2002,2003;theirAverage;and22ndhighfor2001-2003period)VisibilityImpacts,dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_R:Base(LNB)ctrl1_r:SNCRctrl2_r2:SCRClassIArea200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03CapitolReefNP1.290.891.811.331.461.030.711.491.081.190.600.390.800.600.70GaliuroWild.0.490.400.430.440.450.420.350.350.370.400.360.300.230.300.31GilaWild.0.650.730.760.710.700.570.630.640.610.610.390.500.510.470.48GrandCanyonNP3.862.101.522.492.223.261.761.292.101.851.921.100.881.301.16MazatzalWild.1.241.191.171.201.191.091.011.021.041.030.740.720.790.750.76MesaVerdeNP0.971.351.661.331.340.771.081.341.071.080.440.630.750.610.63MountBaldyWild.1.421.240.931.201.211.111.030.770.970.950.700.710.670.690.70PetrifiedForestNP4.544.064.874.494.534.173.654.374.064.063.233.003.443.223.19PineMountainWild.0.821.050.660.840.850.700.880.580.720.730.480.610.490.520.54SaguaroNP0.360.260.270.300.300.340.240.230.270.280.300.190.160.220.25SierraAnchaWild.1.471.441.201.371.361.221.231.041.161.170.810.850.790.820.85SuperstitionWild.1.371.320.931.201.271.161.140.841.041.100.850.770.640.750.76SycamoreCanyonWild.1.421.651.011.361.421.181.300.811.101.150.720.950.530.730.75Maximum4.544.064.874.494.534.173.654.374.064.063.233.003.443.223.19Cumulative(sum)19.8917.6817.2018.2618.3017.0114.9914.7615.5915.5911.5410.7310.6910.9911.09VisibilityBenefits,dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_R:Base(LNB)ctrl1_r:SNCRctrl2_r2:SCRClassIArea200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03CapitolReefNP0.250.180.320.250.270.690.501.010.730.76GaliuroWild.0.070.050.080.070.050.130.100.190.140.14GilaWild.0.090.100.120.100.090.270.230.250.250.22GrandCanyonNP0.600.340.230.390.371.941.000.641.191.06MazatzalWild.0.150.180.150.160.160.490.470.380.450.43MesaVerdeNP0.200.260.320.260.260.530.710.910.720.70MountBaldyWild.0.310.220.160.230.270.720.530.260.500.52PetrifiedForestNP0.380.410.500.430.471.311.061.431.271.34PineMountainWild.0.130.170.070.120.120.350.440.170.320.31SaguaroNP0.020.030.040.030.020.060.070.110.080.05SierraAnchaWild.0.250.210.150.210.200.660.580.410.550.51SuperstitionWild.0.210.180.090.160.170.510.560.280.450.51SycamoreCanyonWild.0.240.350.190.260.270.700.700.480.620.68Maximum0.600.410.500.430.471.941.061.431.271.34Cumulative(sum)2.892.692.432.672.718.356.966.517.277.21PetrifiedForesthasthegreatest22ndhighimpactsforthebasecase,andforthecontrolscenarios.PetrifiedForesthasthegreatestbenefitin22ndhighforallthecontrolscenarios.APSCholla,ArizonaRHFIP,July2012Numberofdayswithdeltadeciviewimpactsgreaterthanorequalto0.5dv;foreachof2001,2002,2003;theirSum,andtheirAverage(roundVisibilityImpacts,#Daysm0.5dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_R:Base(LNB)ctrl1_r:SNCRctrl2_r2:SCRClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgCapitolReefNP27111856192410185217127133211GaliuroWild.57315537212415172GilaWild.16171750171313133913568196GrandCanyonNP362622842830232174252319155719MazatzalWild.3446241043528412089301724165719MesaVerdeNP28393299331732287726415173612MountBaldyWild.333122862926281973241417144515PetrifiedForestNP232256268756252228252259739246213235248696232PineMountainWild.182614581914191245156127258SaguaroNP5511141416202131SierraAnchaWild.45443312241404027107362926197425SuperstitionWild.312818772627261568231817124716SycamoreCanyonWild.202924732418231859201214103612Maximum232256268756252228252259739246213235248696232Cumulative(sum)530565496159153046951845314404803543993811134378VisibilityBenefits,#Daysm0.5dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_R:Base(LNB)ctrl1_r:SNCRctrl2_r2:SCRClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgCapitolReefNP310411545248GaliuroWild.2013142283GilaWild.344114111193110GrandCanyonNP6311031377279MazatzalWild.654155172284716MesaVerdeNP11742272424156321MountBaldyWild.733134191484114PetrifiedForestNP4491761921206020PineMountainWild.472134121473311SaguaroNP4105253083SierraAnchaWild.5461551618144816SuperstitionWild.42393131163010SycamoreCanyonWild.266145815143712Maximum11792272424206321Cumulative(sum)61474315150176166115457152PetrifiedForesthasthegreatestnumberofdaysover0.5dvforthebasecaseandallcontrolscenarios.MesaVerdehasthegreatestdecreaseinnumberofdaysover0.5dvforallcontrolscenarios.APSCholla,ArizonaRHFIP,July2012Numberofdayswithdeltadeciviewimpactsgreaterthanorequalto1.0dv;foreachof2001,2002,2003;theirSum,andtheirAverage(roundVisibilityImpacts,#Daysm1.0dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_R:Base(LNB)ctrl1_r:SNCRctrl2_r2:SCRClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgCapitolReefNP1271130108711269326114GaliuroWild.0303101010.300000.0GilaWild.2441031438311241GrandCanyonNP201713501719161146151384258MazatzalWild.131411381398926921252MesaVerdeNP515183813391123821362MountBaldyWild.811625888521725183PetrifiedForestNP197218225640213188212217617206164199191554185PineMountainWild.38516525310300110.3SaguaroNP01010.300000.000000.0SierraAnchaWild.201894716141293512635145SuperstitionWild.131363211129425833283SycamoreCanyonWild.1113832118115248372124Maximum197218225640213188212217617206164199191554185Cumulative(sum)304342316962321272302288862287199230219648216VisibilityBenefits,#Daysm1.0dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_R:Base(LNB)ctrl1_r:SNCRctrl2_r2:SCRClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgCapitolReefNP40041955196GaliuroWild.0202103031GilaWild.1012113262GrandCanyonNP11241799258MazatzalWild.462124111393311MesaVerdeNP267155314153211MountBaldyWild.03141665176PetrifiedForestNP9682383319348629PineMountainWild.13262384155SaguaroNP0101001010SierraAnchaWild.660124141543311SuperstitionWild.1427210104248SycamoreCanyonWild.32383866207Maximum9682383319348629Cumulative(sum)3240281003310511297314105PetrifiedForesthasthegreatestnumberofdaysover1.0dvforthebasecaseandallcontrolscenarios.PetrifiedForesthasthegreatestdecreaseinnumberofdaysover0.5dvforallcontrolscenarios.CapitolReefGaliuroGilaGrandCanyonMazatzalMesaVerdeMountBaldyPetrifiedForestPineMountainSaguaroSierraAnchaSuperstitionSycamoreCanyonbase_R:Base(LNB)1.460.450.702.221.191.341.214.530.850.301.361.271.42ctrl1_r:SNCR1.190.400.611.851.031.080.954.060.730.281.171.101.15ctrl2_r2:SCR0.700.310.481.160.760.630.703.190.540.250.850.760.750.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0APSCholla2001-2003VisibilityImpacts,EPARHFIPJuly2012(dv)Visibilitymethod:vis8,20bestCapitolReefGaliuroGilaGrandCanyonMazatzalMesaVerdeMountBaldyPetrifiedForestPineMountainSaguaroSierraAnchaSuperstitionSycamoreCanyonbase_R:Base(LNB)ctrl1_r:SNCR0.270.050.090.370.160.260.270.470.120.020.200.170.27ctrl2_r2:SCR0.760.140.221.060.430.700.521.340.310.050.510.510.680.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6APSCholla2001-2003VisibilityBenefits,EPARHFIPJuly2012(dv)Visibilitymethod:vis8,20bestSR P C o r onado

, A ri z on a R H F IP

, J u l y 2012

98 t h pe r cen til e de lt a dec i v i e w s ( Av e ra ge o f 8 t h h i g h s f or 2001, 2 002, 2003 ; 22 nd h i g h f or 2001

- 2003)

V isi b ili t y I m pa c t s

, dv

V i s ibil i t y me t hod: C on t r o l S c e n a r io

vi s 8

, 20b e st

Cl a s s I A r ea '01-'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd '01-'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd '01-'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd '01-'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd '01-'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd

B a nde li e r N M 0.34 0

. 37 0.28 0

. 30 0.19 0

. 19 0.17 0

. 17 0.15 0

. 15

C h i r i ca hu a N M 0.20 0

. 20 0.16 0

. 16 0.14 0

. 13 0.12 0

. 12 0.11 0

. 11

C h i r i ca hu a W il d

. 0.22 0

. 21 0.18 0

. 18 0.14 0

. 14 0.13 0

. 12 0.11 0

. 11

G a li u r o W il d

. 0.19 0

. 20 0.16 0

. 18 0.11 0

. 12 0.11 0

. 11 0.10 0

. 10

G il a W il d. 1.08 1

. 23 0.91 1

. 00 0.63 0

. 64 0.55 0

. 57 0.47 0

. 49

G r a n d C a n y o n N P 0.22 0

. 24 0.19 0

. 20 0.13 0

. 15 0.12 0

. 13 0.12 0

. 12

M azatza l W il d

. 0.20 0

. 20 0.18 0

. 19 0.14 0

. 14 0.13 0

. 13 0.13 0

. 12

M e sa V e r d e N P 0.39 0

. 40 0.31 0

. 33 0.21 0

. 21 0.19 0

. 20 0.17 0

. 17

M oun t B a l d y W il d

. 0.83 0

. 87 0.68 0

. 71 0.46 0

. 46 0.43 0

. 43 0.37 0

. 38

Pe t r i f ie d F o r e s t NP 1.28 1

. 22 1.07 1

. 05 0.71 0

. 74 0.65 0

. 66 0.57 0

. 59

P i n e M oun ta i n W il d

. 0.14 0

. 14 0.13 0

. 13 0.11 0

. 10 0.11 0

. 10 0.10 0

. 09

S a g u a r o N P 0.12 0

. 12 0.11 0

. 10 0.09 0

. 08 0.08 0

. 08 0.07 0

. 07

S a n P ed r o P a r k s W il d

. 0.49 0

. 54 0.40 0

. 43 0.24 0

. 26 0.23 0

. 23 0.20 0

. 20

Si e rr a A n c h a W il d

. 0.23 0

. 24 0.21 0

. 21 0.18 0

. 18 0.17 0

. 18 0.16 0

. 17

S upe r st i t i o n W i l d

. 0.21 0

. 21 0.18 0

. 19 0.16 0

. 16 0.15 0

. 15 0.15 0

. 14

S yc a m o r e C a n y o n W il d

. 0.17 0

. 16 0.15 0

. 15 0.11 0

. 11 0.10 0

. 10 0.09 0

. 09

M a x i m um 1.28 1

. 23 1.07 1

. 05 0.71 0

. 74 0.65 0

. 66 0.57 0

. 59

C u m u l a t iv e (s u m) 6.29 6

. 54 5.29 5

. 52 3.74 3

. 80 3.47 3

. 47 3.08 3

. 11

V isi b ili t y B e n e f i t s

, dv

V i s i b il i t y m e t hod: C on t r o l S c e n a r io

vi s 8

, 20b e st

Cl a s s I A r ea '01-'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd '01 -'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd '01 -'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd '01 -'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd '01 -'0 3 A vg ' 01- ' 03

22nd

B a nde li e r N M 0.06 0

. 07 0.16 0

. 18 0.17 0

. 20 0.19 0

. 22

C h i r i ca hu a N M 0.03 0

. 03 0.06 0

. 07 0.07 0

. 08 0.09 0

. 09

C h i r i ca hu a W il d

. 0.04 0

. 03 0.08 0

. 07 0.09 0

. 09 0.10 0

. 09

G a li u r o W il d

. 0.03 0

. 02 0.08 0

. 08 0.09 0

. 09 0.09 0

. 09

G il a W il d. 0.17 0

. 22 0.45 0

. 59 0.52 0

. 66 0.60 0

. 73

G r a n d C a n y o n N P 0.04 0

. 03 0.09 0

. 09 0.10 0

. 11 0.11 0

. 12

M azatza l W il d

. 0.03 0

. 01 0.06 0

. 06 0.07 0

. 07 0.07 0

. 08

M e sa V e r d e N P 0.07 0

. 07 0.18 0

. 19 0.19 0

. 20 0.22 0

. 23

M oun t B a l d y W il d

. 0.14 0

. 16 0.36 0

. 42 0.40 0

. 44 0.46 0

. 50

P e t r i f i e d F o r e s t N P 0.20 0

. 17 0.57 0

. 47 0.62 0

. 56 0.70 0

. 63

P i n e M oun ta i n W il d

. 0.01 0

. 02 0.03 0

. 04 0.03 0

. 05 0.04 0

. 06

S a g u a r o N P 0.01 0

. 01 0.04 0

. 03 0.05 0

. 04 0.05 0

. 04

S a n P ed r o P a r k s W il d

. 0.09 0

. 11 0.24 0

. 28 0.26 0

. 30 0.29 0

. 34

Si e rr a A n c h a W il d

. 0.03 0

. 03 0.05 0

. 06 0.06 0

. 07 0.07 0

. 08

S upe r st i t i o n W i l d

. 0.02 0

. 02 0.05 0

. 06 0.05 0

. 06 0.06 0

. 07

S yc a m o r e C a n y o n W il d

. 0.02 0

. 01 0.06 0

. 05 0.06 0

. 06 0.07 0

. 07

M a x i m um 0.20 0

. 22 0.57 0

. 59 0.62 0

. 66 0.70 0

. 73

C u m u l a t iv e (s u m) 1.00 1

. 02 2.55 2

. 74 2.83 3

. 07 3.22 3

. 43

G il a W il de r ne ss h as t he g r e at e st 22 nd h i g h i m p a c ts f o r t he b as e ca s e; P e t r i f i ed F o r e st h as t he g r e at e st f o r t he c on t r o l s c en a r i o s.

G il a W il de r ne ss h as t he g r e at e st b e n e f it i n 22 nd h i g h f o r a ll t he c on t r o l s c en a r i o s. b a s e _r s : SC R

. 0 8 u2

w/ S O4 c t r l 1 _r s : S N C R u1;

w/ S O4 c t r l 2 _r s : SC R

. 0 5 u1;

w/ S O4 c t r l 5 _r s : SC R

. 05

w/ S O4 c t r l 6 _r s : SC R -90 %;

w/ S O4 b a s e _r s : SC R

. 0 8 u2

w/ S O4 c t r l 1 _r s : S N C R u1;

w/ S O4 c t r l 2 _r s : SC R

. 0 5 u1;

w/ S O4 c t r l 5 _r s : SC R

. 05

w/ S O4 c t r l 6 _r s : SC R -90 %;

w/ S O4

### S R P C o r on a do

, A r i z on a R H F I P

, J u l y 2012

N umb e r o f d ay s w i t h d e l t a d e c i v i e w imp a c t s g r e a t e r t h a n o r e qu a l t o 0

. 5 d v in 2001

- 2003 ; A ve r a ge



### V i s i b ili t y I mp a c t s

, # Day s m 0

. 5 dv

V i s i b ili t y m e t hod:

v i s 8

, 20 b e st

C l a s s I Ar ea S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg

B a nde li e r N M 10 3 5 2 1 0 .3 1 0 .3 0 0 .0

C h i r i c a hu a N M 3 1 1 0 .3 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

C h i r i c a hu a W il d . 6 2 3 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

Gali ur o W il d . 5 2 3 1 1 0 .3 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

Gil a W il d

. 80 27 61 20 32 11 25 8 21 7

G r a n d C a n y o n N P 8 3 6 2 1 0 .3 1 0 .3 0 0 .0

Ma z a t z a l W il d . 2 0 .7 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

M e s a V erd e N P 17 6 14 5 3 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

M oun t B al d y W il d

. 52 17 46 15 16 5 14 5 8 3

P e t r i f i e d F o re s t NP 83 28 70 23 43 14 37 12 29 10

P i n e M oun t ai n W il d . 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

S a g u a r o N P 2 0 .7 2 0 .7 1 0 .3 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

S a n P edr o P a r k s W il d

. 25 8 13 4 1 0 .3 1 0 .3 1 0 .3

S i err a A nch a W il d . 5 2 3 1 1 0 .3 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

S uper s t i t i o n W il d . 1 0 .3 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

S y c a more C a n y on W il d. 1 0 .3 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0

M a x i m um 83 28 70 23 43 14 37 12 29 10

C u m u l a ti v e ( s u m) 300 100 227 76 100 33 79 26 59 20



### V i s i b ili t y Be n e f i t s

, # Day s m 0

. 5 dv

V i s i b ili t y me t hod:

v i s 8

, 20 b e st

C l a ss I Ar ea S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg S um A vg

B a nde li e r N M 5 2 9 3 9 3 10 3

C h i r i c a hu a N M 2 1 3 1 3 1 3 1

C h i r i c a hu a W il d . 3 1 6 2 6 2 6 2

Gali ur o W il d . 2 1 4 1 5 2 5 2

G il a W il d. 19 6 48 16 55 18 59 20

G r a n d C a n y o n N P 2 1 7 2 7 2 8 3

Ma z a t z a l W il d . 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 0 .7

M e s a V erd e N P 3 1 14 5 17 6 17 6

M oun t B al d y W il d . 6 2 36 12 38 13 44 15

P e t r ifi e d F ore s t N P 13 4 40 13 46 15 54 18

P i n e M oun t ai n W il d . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0

S a g u a r o N P 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 0 .7

S a n P edr o P a r k s W il d

. 12 4 24 8 24 8 24 8

Si err a A nch a W il d . 2 1 4 1 5 2 5 2

S uper s t i t i o n W il d . 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 .3

S y c a more C a n y on W il d. 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 .3

M a x i m um 19 6 48 16 55 18 59 20

C u m u l a ti v e ( s u m) 73 24 200 67 221 74 241 80

P e t r ifi ed F ore s t h a s t he g re a t e s t nu m b er o f d a ys over 0

. 5 dv f or t he b a s e c a s e a nd all con t ro l s cen a r i o s.

Gila W il derne ss h a s t he g re a t e s t d e c re a s e i n nu m b er o f d a ys over 0

. 5 dv f or all con t ro l s cen a r i o s. b a s e

_ r s: S C R

. 08

u 2 w / SO4 c t r l 1

_ r s: S N CR

u 1 ; w / SO4 c t r l 2

_ r s: S C R

. 05

u 1 ; w / SO4 c t r l 5

_ r s: S C R

. 05

w / SO4 c t r l 6

_ r s: S C R

-

90 % ; w / SO4

b a s e

_ r s: S C R

. 08

u 2 w / SO4 c t r l 1

_ r s: S N CR

u 1 ; w / SO4 c t r l 2

_ r s: S C R

. 05

u 1 ; w / SO4 c t r l 5

_ r s: S C R

. 05

w / SO4 c t r l 6

_ r s: S C R

-

90 % ; w / SO4SRPCoronado,ArizonaRHFIP,July201298thpercentiledeltadeciviews(8thhighforeachof2001,2002,2003;theirAverage;and22ndhighfor2001-2003period)VisibilityImpacts,dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_rs:SCR.08u2w/SO4ctrl1_rs:SNCRu1;w/SO4ctrl2_rs:SCR.05u1;w/SO4ctrl5_rs:SCR.05w/SO4ctrl6_rs:SCR-90%;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03BandelierNM0.210.370.460.340.370.180.300.370.280.300.140.190.240.190.190.130.170.230.170.170.120.160.190.150.15ChiricahuaNM0.160.210.230.200.200.140.170.180.160.160.130.110.170.140.130.120.100.160.120.120.100.080.150.110.11ChiricahuaWild.0.180.210.250.220.210.150.180.200.180.180.140.110.170.140.140.130.100.160.130.120.120.090.140.110.11GaliuroWild.0.220.210.160.190.200.190.170.140.160.180.120.120.100.110.120.120.110.100.110.110.110.100.090.100.10GilaWild.0.951.271.011.081.230.791.050.900.911.000.520.660.700.630.640.470.580.610.550.570.400.490.530.470.49GrandCanyonNP0.330.200.140.220.240.280.170.120.190.200.180.110.100.130.150.160.110.100.120.130.140.110.100.120.12MazatzalWild.0.170.210.220.200.200.140.190.200.180.190.110.150.150.140.140.110.150.140.130.130.110.130.140.130.12MesaVerdeNP0.450.370.350.390.400.360.310.280.310.330.210.240.180.210.210.200.210.180.190.200.170.170.170.170.17MountBaldyWild.0.830.870.780.830.870.700.710.650.680.710.480.450.460.460.460.440.390.450.430.430.380.330.400.370.38PetrifiedForestNP1.221.710.901.281.221.051.400.781.071.050.700.860.580.710.740.660.750.550.650.660.570.660.490.570.59PineMountainWild.0.110.150.150.140.140.100.140.140.130.130.090.130.120.110.100.090.120.110.110.100.080.110.110.100.09SaguaroNP0.110.160.110.120.120.100.140.100.110.100.080.100.070.090.080.080.090.070.080.080.070.080.070.070.07SanPedroParksWild.0.340.580.540.490.540.280.470.430.400.430.170.290.270.240.260.160.250.270.230.230.140.220.220.200.20SierraAnchaWild.0.200.260.240.230.240.180.230.210.210.210.150.200.190.180.180.150.180.190.170.180.150.170.180.160.17SuperstitionWild.0.230.200.190.210.210.200.180.170.180.190.180.140.160.160.160.170.140.150.150.150.160.130.150.150.14SycamoreCanyonWild.0.140.190.160.170.160.120.160.150.150.150.100.100.120.110.110.090.100.120.100.100.090.090.100.090.09Maximum1.221.711.011.281.231.051.400.901.071.050.700.860.700.710.740.660.750.610.650.660.570.660.530.570.59Cumulative(sum)5.837.155.906.296.544.955.945.005.295.523.493.953.783.743.803.273.553.583.473.472.883.133.223.083.11VisibilityBenefits,dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_rs:SCR.08u2w/SO4ctrl1_rs:SNCRu1;w/SO4ctrl2_rs:SCR.05u1;w/SO4ctrl5_rs:SCR.05w/SO4ctrl6_rs:SCR-90%;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03200120022003Avg22nd'01-'03BandelierNM0.030.070.090.060.070.070.180.210.160.180.080.200.230.170.200.090.210.270.190.22ChiricahuaNM0.020.040.050.030.030.030.100.060.060.070.040.110.070.070.080.060.130.080.090.09ChiricahuaWild.0.030.040.050.040.030.050.100.090.080.070.050.110.100.090.090.070.120.120.100.09GaliuroWild.0.030.040.030.030.020.100.090.060.080.080.100.100.060.090.090.110.110.070.090.09GilaWild.0.160.230.120.170.220.430.610.310.450.590.480.690.400.520.660.550.780.480.600.73GrandCanyonNP0.060.030.020.040.030.150.090.040.090.090.170.090.040.100.110.190.090.040.110.12MazatzalWild.0.030.020.030.030.010.060.060.080.060.060.060.060.080.070.070.060.070.090.070.08MesaVerdeNP0.090.060.070.070.070.240.130.170.180.190.250.160.170.190.200.280.190.170.220.23MountBaldyWild.0.130.160.140.140.160.350.420.330.360.420.390.480.330.400.440.450.540.380.460.50PetrifiedForestNP0.170.310.130.200.170.520.850.330.570.470.560.960.350.620.560.651.040.420.700.63PineMountainWild.0.010.010.010.010.020.030.020.030.030.040.030.020.040.030.050.030.030.040.040.06SaguaroNP0.000.020.010.010.010.020.060.040.040.030.030.070.040.050.040.030.080.040.050.04SanPedroParksWild.0.060.110.110.090.110.170.300.270.240.280.170.330.270.260.300.190.360.320.290.34SierraAnchaWild.0.020.030.040.030.030.040.060.050.050.060.050.080.050.060.070.050.090.060.070.08SuperstitionWild.0.030.020.010.020.020.050.060.030.050.060.060.060.040.050.060.070.070.040.060.07SycamoreCanyonWild.0.020.030.010.020.010.040.090.040.060.050.050.100.040.060.060.050.110.060.070.07Maximum0.170.310.140.200.220.520.850.330.570.590.560.960.400.620.660.651.040.480.700.73Cumulative(sum)0.891.210.891.001.022.343.202.112.552.742.573.602.322.833.072.954.022.673.223.43GilaWildernesshasthegreatest22ndhighimpactsforthebasecase;PetrifiedForesthasthegreatestforthecontrolscenarios.GilaWildernesshasthegreatestbenefitin22ndhighforallthecontrolscenarios.SRPCoronado,ArizonaRHFIP,July2012Numberofdayswithdeltadeciviewimpactsgreaterthanorequalto0.5dv;foreachof2001,2002,2003;theirSum,andtheirAverage(roundedtointegerunless<1)VisibilityImpacts,# Daysm0.5dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_rs:SCR.08u2w/SO4ctrl1_rs:SNCRu1;w/SO4ctrl2_rs:SCR.05u1;w/SO4ctrl5_rs:SCR.05w/SO4ctrl6_rs:SCR-90%;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgBandelierNM0371030055200110.300110.300000.0ChiricahuaNM0123100110.300000.000000.000000.0ChiricahuaWild.123621023100000.000000.000000.0GaliuroWild.311523003110010.300000.000000.0GilaWild.214019802715311561208131132116910258579217GrandCanyonNP620835106210010.310010.300000.0MazatzalWild.01120.700000.000000.000000.000000.0MesaVerdeNP7551764551451113100000.000000.0MountBaldyWild.2017155217161614461554716544614531483PetrifiedForestNP402518832834221470231516124314121510371291462910PineMountainWild.00000.000000.000000.000000.000000.0SaguaroNP20020.720020.710010.300000.000000.0SanPedroParksWild.3121025816613400110.300110.300110.3SierraAnchaWild.131520213101010.300000.000000.0SuperstitionWild.10010.300000.000000.000000.000000.0SycamoreCanyonWild.01010.300000.000000.000000.000000.0Maximum404019832834311570231516124314121510371291492910Cumulative(sum)10511382300100818363227763235331003323282879261722205920VisibilityBenefits,# Daysm0.5dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_rs:SCR.08u2w/SO4ctrl1_rs:SNCRu1;w/SO4ctrl2_rs:SCR.05u1;w/SO4ctrl5_rs:SCR.05w/SO4ctrl6_rs:SCR-90%;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgBandelierNM032520369303693037103ChiricahuaNM01121012310123101231ChiricahuaWild.02131123621236212362GaliuroWild.01121211413115231152GilaWild.6941961327848161531955181633105920GrandCanyonNP11021520725207262083MazatzalWild.01121011210112101120.7MesaVerdeNP30031644145755176755176MountBaldyWild.411621513836121613938131716114415PetrifiedForestNP634134259640132810846153111125418PineMountainWild.00000000000000000000.0SaguaroNP00000100102002120020.7SanPedroParksWild.264124312924831292483129248SierraAnchaWild.11021121411315213152SuperstitionWild.10010100101001010010.3SycamoreCanyonWild.01010010100101001010.3Maximum6941962527948162831955183133125920Cumulative(sum)2430197324737849200678285542217488916224180PetrifiedForesthasthegreatestnumberofdaysover0.5dvforthebasecaseandallcontrolscenarios.GilaWildernesshasthegreatestdecreasein numberofdaysover0.5dvforallcontrolscenarios.SRPCoronado,ArizonaRHFIP,July2012Numberofdayswithdeltadeciviewimpactsgreaterthanorequalto1.0dv;foreachof2001,2002,2003;theirSum,andtheirAverage(roundedtointegerunless<1)VisibilityImpacts,# Daysm1.0dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_rs:SCR.08u2w/SO4ctrl1_rs:SNCRu1;w/SO4ctrl2_rs:SCR.05u1;w/SO4ctrl5_rs:SCR.05w/SO4ctrl6_rs:SCR-90%;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgBandelierNM00110.300110.300000.000000.000000.0ChiricahuaNM00000.000000.000000.000000.000000.0ChiricahuaWild.00000.000000.000000.000000.000000.0GaliuroWild.10010.300000.000000.000000.000000.0GilaWild.7118269697227122521214101120.7GrandCanyonNP10010.310010.300000.000000.000000.0MazatzalWild.00000.000000.000000.000000.000000.0MesaVerdeNP1124100000.000000.000000.000000.0MountBaldyWild.2461242259300110.300110.300000.0PetrifiedForestNP1113630108114238331722215210010.3PineMountainWild.00000.000000.000000.000000.000000.0SaguaroNP10010.300000.000000.000000.000000.0SanPedroParksWild.01120.700110.300000.000000.000000.0SierraAnchaWild.00000.000000.000000.000000.000000.0SuperstitionWild.00000.000000.000000.000000.000000.0SycamoreCanyonWild.00000.000000.000000.000000.000000.0Maximum1113830108117238332722215211121Cumulative(sum)2430247826172218571945413434310311131VisibilityBenefits,# Daysm1.0dvVisibilitymethod:ControlScenariovis8,20bestbase_rs:SCR.08u2w/SO4ctrl1_rs:SNCRu1;w/SO4ctrl2_rs:SCR.05u1;w/SO4ctrl5_rs:SCR.05w/SO4ctrl6_rs:SCR-90%;w/SO4ClassIArea200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvg200120022003SumAvgBandelierNM00000001100011000110.3ChiricahuaNM00000000000000000000.0ChiricahuaWild.00000000000000000000.0GaliuroWild.10010100101001010010.3GilaWild.121416962176972277107248GrandCanyonNP00000100101001010010.3MazatzalWild.00000000000000000000.0MesaVerdeNP11241112411124111241MountBaldyWild.02131245114245114246124PetrifiedForestNP3227281052389115258101362910PineMountainWild.00000000000000000000.0SaguaroNP10010100101001010010.3SanPedroParksWild.01010011210112101120.7SierraAnchaWild.00000000000000000000.0SuperstitionWild.00000000000000000000.0SycamoreCanyonWild.00000000000000000000.0Maximum3227281062389117258101372910Cumulative(sum)786217202520652221262168232329237525PetrifiedForesthasthegreatestnumberofdaysover1.0dvforthebasecaseandallcontrolscenarios.PetrifiedForesthasthegreatestdecreasein numberofdaysover1.0dvforallcontrolscenarios.BandelierChiricahuaChiricahuaW.GaliuroGilaGrandCanyonMazatzalMesaVerdeMountBaldyPetrifiedForestPineMountainSaguaroSanPedroParksSierraAnchaSuperstitionSycamoreCanyonbase_rs:SCR.08u20.370.200.210.201.230.240.200.400.871.220.140.120.540.240.210.16ctrl1_rs:SNCRu10.300.160.180.181.000.200.190.330.711.050.130.100.430.210.190.15ctrl2_rs:SCR.05u10.190.130.140.120.640.150.140.210.460.740.100.080.260.180.160.11ctrl5_rs:SCR.050.170.120.120.110.570.130.130.200.430.660.100.080.230.180.150.10ctrl6_rs:SCR-90%0.150.110.110.100.490.120.120.170.380.590.090.070.200.170.140.090.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4SRPCoronado2001-2003VisibilityImpacts,EPARHFIPJuly2012(dv)Visibilitymethod:vis8,20bestBandelierChiricahuaChiricahuaW.GaliuroGilaGrandCanyonMazatzalMesaVerdeMountBaldyPetrifiedForestPineMountainSaguaroSanPedroParksSierraAnchaSuperstitionSycamoreCanyonbase_rs:SCR.08u2ctrl1_rs:SNCRu10.070.030.030.020.220.030.010.070.160.170.020.010.110.030.020.01ctrl2_rs:SCR.05u10.180.070.070.080.590.090.060.190.420.470.040.030.280.060.060.05ctrl5_rs:SCR.050.200.080.090.090.660.110.070.200.440.560.050.040.300.070.060.06ctrl6_rs:SCR-90%0.220.090.090.090.730.120.080.230.500.630.060.040.340.080.070.070.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8SRPCoronado2001-2003VisibilityBenefits,EPARHFIPJuly2012(dv)Visibilitymethod:vis8,20best