10 A

- i APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FO R SHIPMENTS AND NATIONAL

IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEETS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ 10A

- 1

10A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS

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- 310A

- 1 APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NATIONAL

IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET S

10A.1 INTRODUCTION

The interested reader can examine and reproduce detailed results of the U.S. Department of Energy’s ( DOE’s ) shipments and national impact analysis (NIA) for residential dish washers using Microsoft Excel spreadshe ets that are available on DOE’s website.

< http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/dishwashers.html >

The latest version of the Microsoft Excel shipments and NIA workbook, which is posted on the DOE website, was tested using Microsoft Excel 200 7

. Use of the sprea dsheet requires

Microsoft Excel 2003 or a later version. The N IA spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the change in national energy use and net present value due to an energy conservation standard. The energy use and associated costs and savings attributable to a given standard are determined first by calculating the shipments and then the energy use and costs for all products shipped

under that standard. The d ifferences between results under the standard case and the base case

then can be compared and the nationwide energy savings and net present values (NPVs)

determined.

The shipments and NIA workbook for both standard

- sized and compact residential

dish washers comprises the following worksheets.

Charts C ontains tables and graphs showing summary results of the NIA : product purchase prices

, market shares of standard

- sized and compact dish washers

, and hist orical and forecasted shipments

under each trial standard level (TSL )

. Tables and figures present

tot al savings in energy and water , discounted incremental product prices, and discounted operating cost savings.

Efficiency Distributions Provides efficiency distributions through year 2044, in terms of shipment

- weighted annual energy use (SWAEU) , under the base

case and each standard level being considered for both standard

sized and compact dish washers

.

Input and Summary Contains user input selections under “User Inputs” an d s ummary table s for the NIA under the chosen CSL

. A summary table gives

energy an d water savings and those values discounted 7 percent and 3 percent (cumulative to 2044). The worksheet p rovides discounted incremental product prices and operating cost savings and their NPV, along with market shares of standard

- sized and compact dish washers. D ata are also provided showing weighted average energy and water use and price for base and standards

cases , along with value s for machine, standby, and water heating10A

- 2 energy use

. Th e worksheet enables the user to stipulate t wo parameters for the c alculations : a relative price elasticity effect of

- 0.34 (default setting) or no impact; and whether the DOE Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2010 energy price trend reflects an economic case that is reference (default) , low

- growth, or hig h

- growth

.

Historical Shipmen t s Contains historical s hipments of dish washers , 1972

– 2010

.

Price Forecasting Contain s the default, low, and high product price forecast trends as well as the constant product price trend.

.

Shipments Base Case Provides data and a graph related to annual historical and projected shipments of dish washers through 2044 under the base case (the case with no new efficiency standards). Also provides market

shares of replacements and units for new housing and the

saturation of dish washers in households nationwide.

Shipments Standards Case Provides data and a graph related to the annual historical and projected shipments of dish washers through 2044 under the chosen

CSL. P rovides market shares of replacements and units for new housing and the saturation of dish washers nationwide.

Base Calc Contains shipments (replacement, new, and total)

, unit and total energy and water consumption, equipment costs, and operating

costs for the base case. The sh eet starts with a stock accounting of

the chosen product and uses the survival function DOE developed to calculate the surviving stock each year

.

Standards Calc Contains shipments (replacement, new, and total), unit and total energy and water consumption, product costs, and operating costs

for the chosen CSL

. Also gives market impacts, energy and water

use due to hand

- washing, and discounted values for costs and savings

.

Housing Projections Contains the project ed housing stock, c onstruction starts

, and

demolitions for the three AEO economic scenarios ( r eference, l ow

g rowth, and h igh g rowth)

.

Fuel & Water Prices Contains projected average energy (electricity, gas, and oil) and

wate r prices to 2072 under each of the three AEO economic

scenarios.10A

- 3 Site

- to

- Source Conversion Contains the marginal site

- to

- source conversion factors for both electricity and gas DOE used in the calculation of source energy savings.

Lifetime C ontains data and the survival function DOE used to calculate

dish washer lifetimes. Presents a graph showing dish washer lifetimes and gives the current average lifetime ( 15.43 years)

.

10A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS

Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheet s are given below.

1. After download ing the NIA file from DOE’s w eb site

, use Microsoft Excel to open it . At

the bottom of the workbook , click on the tab for the sheet labeled Input and Summary

. Ensure that calculation options are set to “Automatic.”

2. Use Excel’s “View/Zoom” com mand in the top menu bar to change the size of the display so that it fit s your monitor.

3. The user can change two of the model parameters listed in the white box label ed “User Inputs

. ” The parameters are:

a. Relative Price Elasticity: Use the drop

- down arrow if you wish t o change the

default value of

- 0.34 to “No i mpact.”

b. Economic Growth: To the change from the default AEO reference case

, use the drop

- down arrow and select the desired g rowth level ( low or h igh).

4. After selecting the parameters, use the cell labelled “TSL Level” to select the trial standard level to analyze. The associated efficiency distributions and growth trends are fixed as specified in Chapter 10 of this preliminary tec hnical support document. After selecting the CSL level , click the “ Ent er ” button to make your selected CSL effective.

5. The results are automatically updated for both product classes and are reporte d in the summary table to the right of the “User I nputs” box.