# Meteorological Data for Dispersion Models 11 th 

# Modeling Conference Research Triangle Park, NC August 12, 2015 Chris Misenis and James Thurman U.S. EPA/OAQPS/AQAD/AQMG 8/12/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1

# Meteorological data workgroup • James Thurman (OAQPS) • Chris Misenis (OAQPS) • George Bridgers (OAQPS) • Roger Brode (OAQPS) • Randy Robinson (Region 5) • Andy Hawkins (Region 7) • Rebecca Matichuk (Region 8) 8/12/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2

# Acknowledgments • Kali Frost (Indiana Department of Environmental Management)

– Provided Gibson AERMOD inputs and observations for MMIF evaluations 

# • Missouri Department of Natural Resources, Andy Hawkins, R7

– Herculaneum inputs 

# • Andy Hawkins, Kirk Baker ( OAPQS), Roger Brode

– Martins Creek WRF/MMIF output 

# • Rebecca Matichuk, R8

– Meteorological analysis of sites in R8 8/12/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 3

# Meteorological data in the proposed Guideline Section 8.4 • AERMINUTE

– I ntroduced in 2011

– Calculates hourly average of winds from 2 - minute winds for ASOS stations

– March 2013 memorandum issued regarding use of ASOS data and AERMINUTE in AERMOD • http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance/clarification/20130308_Met_Data_Clarification.pdf

– Should be routinely used when available 

## • Prognostic meteorological data

– No representative NWS station and infeasible to collect site - specific data

– No fewer than 3 -years of data

– Mesoscale Model Interface Program (MMIF) developed to read prognostic data (i.e., WRF) to create data for input into AERMET and AERMOD, as well as other dispersion models 8/12/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 4

# Prognostic Meteorological Data Guidance • Number of years: Minimum of 3 years • Follow Ozone, PM 2.5 

# , and Regional Haze modeling guidance for developing meteorological fields 1 

# • Evaluation procedures • Link:

– http:// www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/11thmodconf/Draft_MMIF_Guidance.pdf 8/12/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 5 1. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance/guide/Draft_O3 - PM - RH_Modeling_Guidance -2014.pdf

# Prognostic Meteorological Data Guidance • Guidance for running MMIF for AERMOD

– Regulatory applications: MMIF to AERMET • AERMET regulatory meteorological pre - processor for AERMOD • Take advantage of options in AERMET (u* adjustment)



## – All others: MMIF to AERMET or MMIF to AERMOD 

# • Grid resolution

– Dependent upon location (complex terrain; complex meteorology) 

# • Representative grid cell

– Most cases, grid cell of facility of interest 

# • Other recommendations 8/12/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 6http:// www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/11thmodconf/MMIF_Evaluation_TSD.pdf 

# Prognostic Data Evaluation • Three case studies

– Gibson, IN (SO 2

## )

– Martins Creek, PA (SO 2

## )

– Herculaneum, MO (Pb) 

# • Meteorological evaluations • AERMOD evaluations (EPA protocol for determining best performing model) 8/12/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 77/30/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 8 Gibson Evansville 

### Gibson study meteorological data locations WRF 12 km cells8/12/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 9 Model Comparison Measure (MCM) Gibson (95 th percentile CI)2ndscenario performs better1st scenario performs better EVV MMIF: Evansville WRF cell EVV OBS: Evansville NWS obs GIB MMIF: Facility WRF cell GIB OBS: Facility site - specific obs7/30/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 10 ABE Martins Creek (meteorology) WRF 1 KM WRF 4 KM Martins Creek (emissions) Hoffman - LaRoche Portland Warren Monitors 

### Martins Creek study meteorological data locations7/30/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 11 Model Comparison Measure (MCM) Martins Creek (95 th percentile CI)2ndscenario performs better1st scenario performs better ABE: Allentown NWS obs Martins Creek: Martins Creek obs MMIF 1 km: WRF 1 km MMIF 4 km: WRF 4 km7/30/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 12 MMIF 36 KM CPS

MMIF 12 KM MMIF 4 KM Herculaneum Doe Run Monitors 

### Herculaneum study meteorological data locations7/30/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 13 

### 24- hour screen Herculaneum Biases based on top 25 concentrations WRF outside factor of 2 box but comparable to site -specific data CPS: St. Louis NWS obs Herculaneum: Herculaneum obs MMIF 4 km: WRF 4 km MMIF 12 km: WRF 12 km MMIF 36 km: WRF 36 km

# Summary • Gibson

– Prognostic data not statistically different from observed data 

# • Martins Creek

– Prognostic data statistically different from site specific data; not statistically different from NWS data 

# • Herculaneum

– Screening analysis indicated prognostic data performance comparable to site - specific data 8/12/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 14

# Links • Draft Guidance on use of MMIF in AERMOD

– http:// www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/11thmodconf/Draft_MMIF_Guidance.pdf 

# • Evaluation of Prognostic Meteorological Data in AERMOD

– http :// www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/11thmodconf/MMIF_Evaluation_TSD.pdf
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