# Appendix C.2

Area Source Emissions Inventory Documentation(This page intentionally left blank)Area Sources Documentation i Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 i TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE ............................................................................................... 1

2.0 OVERALL METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................ 2 2.1 Source Category Identification ........................................................................................... . 2 2.2 Area Source Emission Estimation Approach ....................................................................... 2
3. QUALITY ASSURANCE OF EMISSIONS INVENTORY ..................................................... 5

4. DISCUSSION OF AREA SO URCE CATEGORIES ................................................................ 6 4.1 Forest Fires.............................................................................................................. ........... 6 4.2 Structure Fires .......................................................................................................... .......... 8 4.3 Open Burning – Municipal Solid Waste and Yard Trimmings ....................................... 11 4.4 On-Site Incineration ..................................................................................................... .... 15 4.5 Vehicle Fires ............................................................................................................ ........ 17 4.6 Small Stationary Source Fossil Fuel Use ......................................................................... 21Area Sources Documentation ii Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 ii LIST OF TABLES

Table 1-1 Hickory Nonattainment Area Source Emissions ........................................................... 1 Table 1-2 Triad Nonattainment Area Source Emissions ............................................................... 1 Table 2.2-1 Total County Population........................................................................................... .. 3 Table 2.2-2 2000 Census Rural Population Percentages ............................................................... 3 Table 2.2-3 2008 Rural Population ............................................................................................ .... 3 Table 4.1-1 Acres of Land Burned by Wild Fires ......................................................................... 6 Table 4.1-2 Emissions from Wildfires ......................................................................................... .. 7 Table 4.1-3 Acres and Tons Burned fr om the NCDFR Prescribed Fires ...................................... 8 Table 4.1-4 Emissions from Prescribed Fires ................................................................................ 8 Table 4.2-1 Growth Factor s for Structure Fires ............................................................................. 9 Table 4.2-2 Emissions fr om Structure Fire .................................................................................. 1 0 Table 4.3-2 Growth Factors for Open Burning ............................................................................ 11 Table 4.3-3 Rule Effectivene ss for MSW Open Burning ............................................................ 12 Table 4.3-4 Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste ................................................................... 14 Table 4.3-5 Emissions fr om Yard Trimmings ............................................................................. 14 Table 4.4-1 Yield of Pollutant Values fo r Uncontrolled Refuse Combustors ............................. 15 Table 4.4-2 Growth Factors for On-Site Incineration .................................................................. 15 Table 4.4-3 Emissions from On-Site Incineration ....................................................................... 17 Table 4.5-1 Catawba County Ve hicle Miles Traveled ................................................................. 18 Table 4.5-2 Davidson County Ve hicle Miles Traveled ............................................................... 19 Table 4.5-3 Guilford County Ve hicle Miles Traveled ................................................................. 19 Table 4.5-4 Growth Factors for Vehicle Fires ............................................................................. 20 Table 4.5-5 Emissions fr om Vehicle Fires .................................................................................. 21 Table 4.6-1 2007 Fuel Use in North Carolina.............................................................................. 22 Table 4.6-2 Fuel Combusti on Emission Factors ........................................................................... 23 Table 4.6-3 Residential Fuel Apportionment ............................................................................... 24 Table 4.6-4 Commercial and Industrial Fuel Apportionment ...................................................... 24 Table 4.6-5 Residential Growth Factors for Fuel Combustion .................................................... 25 Table 4.6-6 Manufacturing Employment pe r County .................................................................. 25 Table 4.6-7 Commercial/I ndustrial Growth Factors for Fuel Combustion .................................. 26Area Sources Documentation iii Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 iii Table 4.6-8 Residential Source S ector Fuel Oil Emissions ......................................................... 27 Table 4.6-9 Residential Sour ce Sector LPG Emissions ............................................................... 28 Table 4.6-10 Residential Source Sector NG Emissions............................................................... 29 Table 4.6-11 Residential S ource Sector Wood Emissions........................................................... 30 Table 4.6-12 Commercial Co al Combustion Emissions .............................................................. 31 Table 4.6-13 Commercial Fuel Oil Combustion Emissions ........................................................ 32 Table 4.6-14 Commercial LP G Combustion Emissions .............................................................. 33 Table 4.6-15 Commercial NG Combustion Emissions ................................................................ 34 Table 4.6-16 Industrial Fuel Oil Combustion Emissions ............................................................. 35 Table 4.6-17 Industrial LP G Combustion Emissions .................................................................. 36 Table 4.6-18 Industrial NG Combustion Emissions .................................................................... 37 Table 4.6-19 Point Source Commercial Coal Combustion Emissions ........................................ 38 Table 4.6-20 Point Source Commercial Fuel Oil Combustion Emissions ................................... 38 Table 4.6-21 Point Source Commercial Natural Gas Combustion Emissions ............................. 38 Table 4.6-22 Point Source Industrial Fuel Oil Combustion Emissions ....................................... 39 Table 4.6-23 Point Source Industrial Natural Gas Combustion Emissions ................................. 39Area Sources Documentation iv Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 iv List of Acronyms

Acronym Definition BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics BTU British Thermal Units CNG Compressed Natural Gas EF Emission Factor EGAS 5.0 Economic Growth Analysis System version 5.0 EIA Energy Information Administration EIIP Emissions Inventory Improvement Program GF Growth Factor LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas MSW Municipal Solid Waste NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NCDAQ North Carolina Division of Air Quality NCDFR North Carolina Divisi on of Forest Resources NCDOT North Carolina Department of Transportation NCSU North Carolina State University NEI National Emissions Inventory NG Natural Gas NH 3 Ammonia NOx Nitrogen Oxides PM Particulate Matter QA Quality Assurance SCC Source Classification Code SIC Standard Industrial Classification SO 2 Sulfur dioxide USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency USFA U.S. Fire Administration USFWS U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service USFS U.S. Forest Service VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Volatile Organic CompoundsArea Sources Documentation 1 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 1 

### 1. INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE

Area sources represent a collection of many small, unidentified points of air pollution emissions within a specified geographical area, emitting less than the minimum level prescribed for permitted point sources. Because these sources are too small and/or too numerous to be surveyed and characterized individually, all area source activities are collectively estimated. The county is usually the geographic area for wh ich emissions from area sources are compiled, primarily because counties are the smallest areas for which data used for estimating emissions is readily available.

The area source inventories detailed in this sect ion have been developed for the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point (referred to as the Triad area) annual fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) nonattainment areas as part of the pr ocess of redesignati ng the areas from nonattainment to attainment/m aintenance for the annual PM 2.5 standard. The Hickory nonattainment area consists of Catawba County and the Triad nonattainment area consists of Davidson and Guilford Counties. Table 1-1 and 1-2 below shows a summary of the area source total emissions for each nonattainment area. All emissions are calcula ted on a ton per year basis.

Table 1-1 Hickory Nonattainment Area Source Emissions 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx 662 614 566 520 454 SO 2 2,263 2,037 1,808 1,580 1,277 PM 2.5 682 658 629 606 559

Table 1-2 Triad Nonattainme nt Area Source Emissions 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx 1,826 1,761 1,693 1,632 1,537 SO 2 5,112 4,743 4,375 4,008 3,517 PM 2.5 1,769 1,692 1,603 1,528 1,382Area Sources Documentation 2 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 2 

### 2.0 OVERALL METHODOLOGY

2.1 Source Category Identification
The area source categories were identified from U. S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA’s) guidance docu ment EPA-450/4-91-016, Procedures for the Preparation of Emission Inventories of Carbon Monoxide and Precursors of Ozone, Vol. 1 , from this point on this document will be referred to as the Procedures document; the USEPA guidance document EPA454/R-05-001, Emissions Inventory Guidance for Impl ementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standar ds (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulation ; the Emissions Inventory Improvement Program (E IIP) Technical Reports, Volume 3, Area Sources as of December 2002 (the most curre nt version at the time of the inventory development), from this point on this document will be referred to as EIIP Tech Reports

. 2.2 Area Source Emission Estimation Approach
Area source emissions are estimated by multiplying an emission factor by some known indicator of collective activity for each source category with in the inventory area. An indicator is any parameter associated with the activity level of a source that can be co rrelated with the air pollutant emissions from that source, such as production, number of empl oyees, or population.

In general, one of the following emissions estima tion approaches is used to calculate the area source emissions: per capita emission factors, employment-related emissi on factors, commodity consumption-related emission factor s, and level of activity based em ission factors. The emission factors used were obtained from the EIIP Tech. Reports , the Procedures document or the USEPA’s AP

- 42 Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Fifth Edition , referred to as AP-42

. There are several methods for estimating the activ ity level for a specific area source category. These are: treating area sources as point sources , surveying local activity levels, apportioning national or statewide activity to tals to local inventory areas, using population or employment data. All of these methods were used to es timate area source emissions. For some source categories, 2007 activity data wa s the latest data available so it was used to estimate the emissions inventory.

Some of the area source categorie s utilize population for the emissions estimation. The base year (2008) and future year population proj ections, for years 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2021, wereArea Sources Documentation 3 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 3 obtained from the NC Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) website (www.osbm.state.us.nc). The population for each county is shown in Table 2.2-1 below.

Table 2.2-1 Total County Population Year Catawba Davidson Guilford 2008 154,972 158,897 468,439 2011 161,146 166,082 493,237 2014 167,351 173,813 518,129 2017 173,556 181,519 543,021 2021 181,829 191,758 576,210

There are a few categories that utilize the rural portion of the total coun ty population. The rural population was determined by multiplying the rura l population percentage as reported in the 2000 census, by the total county population (Table 2.2-1). Table 2.2-2 below shows the rural population percentage and Table 2.2-3 shows the rural portion of the county total.

Table 2.2-2 2000 Census Rural Population Percentages

COUNTY Rural Population Percentage Catawba 35.1%
Davidson 56.9% Guilford 16.2%

Table 2.2-3 2008 Rural Population COUNTY Rural Population Catawba 54,395
Davidson 90,412 Guilford 75,887

There are a number of categories where emission s were calculated with emission factors based on employment. The employment numbers were obt ained from the on-line U.S. Census Bureau County Business Patterns at the coun ty level for North Carolina.Area Sources Documentation 4 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 4 Certain emission categories were adjusted for su ch things as rule effectiveness and rule penetration. These are discussed in the particular source categories descriptions.

For creating future year emission estimates for many source categories, th e base year emissions inventory was projected with a source category specific growth factor generated with the USEPA’s Economic Growth Analysis Syst em version 5.0 (E-GAS 5.0) program.

For certain categories, there can be overlap between the point source emissions and the area source emissions calculated with emission fact ors. The point source emissions in these categories were identified so that they could be subtracted where appropriate.Area Sources Documentation 5 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 5 

### 3. QUALITY ASSURANCE OF EMISSIONS INVENTORY

Many emission estimation methods are based on AP-42 factors, located on the USEPA website at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/, factors given in the Procedures document, and factors given in the documents of the Emission Invent ory Improvement Program website located at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/eiip/ . Sources of error would primarily be associated with multiplier values, data entry errors, and the accuracy of formulas.

Under the direction of the quali ty assurance coordinator, emi ssion sources whose contribution was either at the high or low end of the range of estimates were scrutinized more closely for reasonableness. The accuracy was addresse d by performing independent checks of the calculations. In addition, the raw data used in the calculations were ve rified to make sure transference to the spreadsheets was accomplished accu rately. Furthermore, the formulas used to calculate the emissions were reviewed and chec ked for correctness. Random independent checks of the calculations were also performed to ensure the accuracy of the inventory.Area Sources Documentation 6 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 6 

### 4. DISCUSSION OF AR EA SOURCE CATEGORIES

Area sources represent a collection of many small, unidentified points of air pollution emissions within a specified geographical area, emitting less than the minimum level prescribed for permitted point sources. Because these sources are too small and/or too numerous to be surveyed and characterized individually, all area source activities are collectively estimated. The county is the geographic area for which emissi ons from area sources are compiled, primarily because counties are the smallest areas for which data used for estimating emissions is readily available. Volatile organic compounds (VOC) and ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions have been deemed insignificant for the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas therefore, only the source categories that emit PM 2.5 , nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions were calculated. Emissions are calculated on an a nnual basis in tons per year.

4.1 Forest Fires There are two types of forest fires; wild fire s, which are accidental or felonious fires and prescribed burns, which are intentionally se t for the purpose of forest and/or grassland management practice. The number of acres burned in 2008 for wild fires were ascertained from the North Carolina Division of Forest Resource s (NCDFR) and are listed in Table 4.1-1.

Table 4.1-1 Acres of Land Burned by Wild Fires Total Number of Wild Fires Catawba 2,378 Davidson 680 Guilford 1,114

The makeup of the plant life burned in each fire can vary from woodland to brush to grassland. The emission factors for the southern region of the United States from AP-42 , Section 13.1, were used to estimate the emissions from forest bur ns. The emission factors are 17 pounds per ton for total particulate matter per unit mass of forest fuel consumed and 4 pounds per ton NOx per unit mass of forest fuel consumed. According to AP-42 , the SO 2 emissions for wild fires are negligible. The fuel loading consumed (mass of forest fuel per unit land are burned) for the southern region is 9 tons per acre.

For the base year 2008 and future year emission i nventories, it is assume d that the number of acres burned remains relatively c onstant and therefore the emissions do not change from year to year.Area Sources Documentation 7 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 7 The emissions for 2008 were calculated using Equation 4.1-1.

EM P = (# acres burned) x EF P x L 4.1-1

where EM P = emissions for source cat egory for pollutant (P) EF P = emission factor for pollutant (P) L = fuel loading consumed = 9 ton/acre

The PM 2.5 and NOx emission estimates, in tons/year, from wildfires for the Hickory and Triad nonattainment area are listed in Table 4.1-2.

Table 4.1-2 Emission s from Wildfires Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 43 43 43 43 43

Triad Area Davidson 12 12 12 12 12 Guilford 20 20 20 20 20
Triad Total 32 32 32 32 32 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 182 182 182 182 182

Triad Area Davidson 52 52 52 52 52 Guilford 85 85 85 85 85 Triad Total 137 137 137 137 137Area Sources Documentation 8 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 8 The US Forest Service provided prescribed fire s emissions for the federally owned lands in Davidson County. The U.S. Forest Service us ed the CONSUME 3.0 model to calculate the prescribed fires emissions for PM 2.5 emissions. The CONSUME 3.0 model does not calculate NOx emissions therefore, NOx emission factor outlined in AP-42 , Section 13.1 was used to determine the NOx emissions.

The NCDFR had 5 prescribed burns in Davids on County and 1 prescribed burn in Guilford County. There were no prescribed burns in Catawba County. The NCDFR supplied the number of acres and tons burned in Da vidson and Guilford Counties for th ese prescribed fires as shown in Table 4.1-3 below. The emissions for the pr escribed burns were determined using equation 4.1-1. The following table illustrates the num ber of acres and tons burned per county.

Table 4.1-3 Acres and Tons Burned from the NCDFR Prescribed Fires County Acres Burned Tons Burned Davidson 362 1,823 Guilford 25 125
The emissions for Davidson and Guilford Counties from prescribed fires are shown in Table 4.1-4 below.

Table 4.1-4 Emissions fr om Prescribed Fires Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Triad Area Davidson 155 155 155 155 155 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 155 155 155 155 155 Total PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Triad Area Davidson 380 380 380 380 380 Guilford 1 1 1 1 1 Triad Total 381 381 381 381 381

4.2 Structure Fires Burning fires can produce short term emissions of organic compounds and NOx. The U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) of the Department of Ho meland Security maintains statistics on the number of fires nationally. The number of fi res per person per year was derived from 2008 national population sta tistics and 2008 USFA national fire statistics. The USFA 2008 fireArea Sources Documentation 9 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 9 structures statistics were obtai ned from the USFA website at http://www.USFA.DHS.gov/statistics/

. A fires per person per year factor was calculated based on the number of national structure fires and U.S. population equating to 0.00133 fires/pe rson/year. The 2008 county population values are shown in Table 2.2-1. The 0.00133 fires pe r person per year was applied to the 2008 population for each county to determine the number of fires in each county for 2008.

The emission factors and fuel loading factor s were obtained from the EIIP Tech. Reports , Table 18.4-1 and Table 18.4-2, respectively. The emission factors are 11 pounds of VOC per ton burned, 1.4 pounds of NOx per ton burned, and 10.8 pounds PM 2.5 per tons burned. The emission factor used for PM 2.5 is a conservative estimate based on the total particulate matter. The loading factor is 1.15 tons of ma terial burned per structural fire.

The base year emissions were projected using E- GAS 5.0 growth factors, listed in Table 4.2-1, to calculate the future year inventories.

Table 4.2-1 Growth Factors for Structure Fires 2011 2014 2017 2120 0.988 1.017 1.080 1.171

The emissions for the 2008 base year emissions i nventory and future emissions projections were calculated using Equations 4.2- 1 and 4.2-2, respectively.

EM P = (2008 County population) x (FPP) x (CF) x (EF P ) (2000 lb/tons) 4.2-1

PJ b EM a = EM a x GF ab 4.2-2

where EM P = emissions for structure fires for pollutant (P) FPP = fires per person in 2008, 0.00133 fires/person/year CF = Conversion factor, 1.15 tons burned/structure fire EF P = emission factor for pollutant (P) PJ b EM a = projected future year (b) emissions for county in redesi gnation area ton/year GF ab = growth factor for base year (a) to future year (b)

The NOx and PM 2.5 emissions estimates, in tons/year, fr om structure fires are listed in Table 4.2-2.Area Sources Documentation 10 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 10 Table 4.2-2 Emissions from Structure Fire Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 1 1 1 1 1 Triad Total 1 1 1 1 1 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 3 3 3 3 3

Triad Area Davidson 2 2 2 2 2 Guilford 6 6 6 6 7 Triad Total 8 8 8 8 9Area Sources Documentation 11 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 11 4.3 Open Burning – Municipal Solid Waste and Yard Trimmings

This subsection describes the combined emi ssion inventory methodology for residential open burning and open burning – yard trimmings. Open burning is treated as a means of waste disposal in rural areas. Mate rials burned generally include agricultural refuse, landscaping refuse, or scrap wood. In North Carolina, it is i llegal to burn municipal solid waste anywhere in the state. However, the North Carolina Division of Air Quality (NCDAQ) realizes that this type of burning occurs, so it is included in the emissions inventory. Ho wever, rule effectiveness, rule penetration and control efficiency factor s are applied to the emission estimates.

It was assumed that all municipal solid waste (MSW) and yard trimmings were burned in the open for solid waste generated outside the munici pal corporate limits. According to the EIIP Tech. Reports , Table 16.5-1, it is estimated that 3.77 pounds of MSW is genera ted per person per day and 0.64 pounds of yard trimmings are ge nerated per person per day. The 2008 rural population per county (see Table 2.2-3) was used to apportion the emissi ons to the county level.

NOx and SO 2 emission factors for open burning of MSW were obtained from EIIP Tech. Reports , Table 16.4-1, Open Burning of Municipa l Refuse. The emission factors are 34.8 pounds PM 2.5 per ton MSW burned, 6 pounds NOx per ton MSW burned and 1 pound SO 2 per ton MSW burned.

The PM 2.5 emission factor, 38 pounds PM 2.5 per ton yard trimming, for open burning of yard trimmings was obtained from EIIP Tech. Reports , Chapter 16, Table 16.4-7.

The future year emissions inventories were cal culated from the base year projections using E-GAS 5.0 growth factors, li sted in Table 4.3-2, to calcula te the future year emission inventories.

Table 4.3-2 Growth Factors for Open Burning 2011 2014 2017 2120 1.042 1.086 1.130 1.188

The emissions from the burning of municipal solid waste and yard trimmings for the base year 2008 inventory were calculated using equations 4.3-1 and 4.3-2. The future year emissions projections were calcula ted using equation 4.3-3.Area Sources Documentation 12 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 12 EM P,MSW = (Rural Population in 2008) x (CF MSW ) x (EF P ) x (365 days/year) (2000 lb/tons) 4.3-1

EM P,YT = (Rural Population in 2008) x (CF YT ) x (EF P ) x (365 days/year) (2000 lb/tons) 4.3-2

PJ a EM = EM P x GF a 4.3-3

where EM P,MSW = emissions from burning MSW for pollutant (P) EM P,YT = emissions from burning yard trimmings for pollutant (P) CF MSW = conversion factor, 3.77 lb MSW/person/day = 0.001885 ton MSW/person/day CF YT = conversion factor, 0.64 lb yard trimmings/person/day = 0.00032 ton yard trimmings/person/day EF P = emission factor for pollutant (P) PJ a EM = projected future year (a) emissions for county GF a = growth factor for future year (a)

Since the NCDAQ has an open burning regulatio n that prohibits the burning of man-made materials, the emissions estimated for MSW were reduced to account for th is rule. The control efficiency is 100% since no burni ng yields no emissions. The rule penetration is also 100% since the regulation prohibits the burning of man-made materials statewide. Finally the rule effectiveness was set to a conservative 50% for the base year since the NCDAQ know that burning of man-made materials does occur. Th e NCDAQ has started an aggressive campaign to make the public aware that it is illegal to burn man-made mate rials. The NCDAQ has sponsored radio ads as well as billboard signs in an effo rt to educate the public. Additionally, the NCDAQ has developed an educational vi deo discussing open burning and the State’s regulation. This video has been distributed to th e fire departments across the Stat e. Finally, at the 2009 North Carolina State Fair, the NCDAQ had a booth that al lowed staff to talk with the general public about the open burning regulations and provide ha nd outs that discussed what was legal to burn. The NCDAQ expects that as the public becomes more aware of the open burning regulations, the rule effective will increase to 75% by 2021. A gra dual increase in the rule effectiveness for the interim years was applied. The table below di splays the rule effective numbers used in calculating the emissions.

Table 4.3-3 Rule Effectiven ess for MSW Open Burning 2008 2011 2014 2017 2120 0.50 0.56 0.62 0.67 0.75Area Sources Documentation 13 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 13 The formula used to apply these factors to the emissions estimates is shown below in equations 4.3-4 and 4.3-5.

EM P,MSW,Controlled = (EM P,MSW ) x (1 – (CE x RP x RE)) 4.3-4

PJ a EM Controlled = PJ a EM x (1 – (CE x RP x RE)) 4.3-5

where EM P,MSW,Controlled = controlled emissions from burning MSW for pollutant (P) EM P,MSW = emissions from burning MSW for pollutant (P) CE = control efficiency (1) RP = rule penetration RE = rule effectiveness PJ a EM Controlled = controlled projected future year (a) emissions for county PJ a EM = projected future year (a) emissions for county

The open burning emissions from municipal solid wa ste and yard trimmings, in tons/year, are listed in Table 4.3-4 and Table 4.3-5, respectively.Area Sources Documentation 14 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 14 Table 4.3-4 Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 56 51 46 42 33

Triad Area Davidson 94 86 77 70 56 Guilford 79 72 65 58 47
Triad Total 173 158 142 128 103 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 10 9 8 7 6

Triad Area Davidson 16 14 13 12 9 Guilford 13 12 11 10 8
Triad Total 29 26 24 22 17 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 326 299 269 243 194

Triad Area Davidson 541 497 447 404 322 Guilford 454 417 375 339 270
Triad Total 995 914 822 743 592

Table 4.3-5 Emissions from Yard Trimmings Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 121 126 131 136 143

Triad Area Davidson 63 65 68 71 75 Guilford 73 76 79 82 86 Triad Total 136 141 147 153 161Area Sources Documentation 15 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 15 4.4 On-Site Incineration

On-site incineration is the confin ed burning of waste leaves, landscap e refuse and other refuse or rubbish. In North Carolina, comm ercial/institutional and industrial incinerators are required to have an Air Quality Permit in order to operate . Therefore, all indus trial incinerators are identified in the point source inventory. There may be small commercial/institutional incinerators that have not been identified in the point source inventory and as a result emissions were calculated for commercial on-site incinerators.

No data was available to determine the amount of waste burned in on- site incinerators. Therefore, the amount of solid waste burned was es timated with the fuel loading factor given in Table 4.6-1 of the Procedures document. The commercial fuel loading factor is 0.023 tons of refuse/year. The yield for commercial incinerati on was obtained from several sources. The yield of NOx, SO 2 and PM 2.5 were obtained from AP-42 , Table 3.4.7-1 and are listed in Table 4.4-1. The yield values used are from the uncontrolled emission factors for refuse combustors other than municipal waste. The average value is calculated from the single and multiple chambers combustors.

Table 4.4-1 Yield of Pollutant Values for Uncontrolled Refuse Combustors

Pollutant Multiple Chamber Combustor Yield Value Single Chamber Combustor Yield Value Average Yield Value

(lb pollutant/ton refuse burned) (lb pollutant/ton refuse burned) (lb pollutant/ton refuse burned) NOx 3 2 2.5 SO 2 2.5 2.5 2.5 PM 2.5 7 15 11

The future year emissions inventories were cal culated from the base year projections using E-GAS 5.0 growth factors, listed in Table 4.4-2, to calculate the fu ture year inventories. The growth factors for on-site inci neration are the same as the open burning growth factors.

Table 4.4-2 Growth Factors for On-Site Incineration 2011 2014 2017 2120 1.042 1.086 1.130 1.188Area Sources Documentation 16 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 16 The emissions for 2008 were calculated using equa tion 4.4-1 and the emissions for the future years were calculated using equation 4.4-2.

EM P = (2008 rural population) x (LF) x (EF P ) (2000 lb/tons) 4.4-1

PJ a EM = EM P x GF a 4.4-2

where EM P = emissions for on-site inci neration for pollutant (P) LF = Fuel loading Factory, 0.023 tons refuse burned/person/year EF P = emission factor for pollutant (P) PJ a EM = projected future year (a) emissi ons for county in nonattainment area GF a = growth factor for future year (a)

The rural population was calculated using the 200 0 census data rural population percentage and applying the percentage to the total 2008 population, see Ta ble 2.2-2. According to the Procedures document, on-site incineration occurs uni formly year round and operates 7 days per week. Point source emissions with SCC 5-xx- xxx-xx identified waste incineration emissions. The point source emissions in tons per year were subtracted from the on- site incineration source emissions.

The NOx, SO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions estimates, in tons/year, from on-site incineration for the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas are listed in Tabl e 4.4-3 below.Area Sources Documentation 17 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 17 Table 4.4-3 Emissions from On-Site Incineration Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 2 2 2 2 2

Triad Area Davidson 3 3 3 3 3 Guilford 2 2 2 2 3 Triad Total 5 5 5 5 6 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 2 2 2 2 2

Triad Area Davidson 3 3 3 3 3 Guilford 2 2 2 2 3 Triad Total 5 5 5 5 6 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 7 7 7 8 8

Triad Area Davidson 11 12 12 13 14 Guilford 10 10 10 11 11 Triad Total 21 22 22 24 25

4.5 Vehicle Fires Vehicle fire emissions are estimated by consider ing the estimated number vehicles burned in the state, the amount of material burned (the fuel load ing) in a vehicle fire and the emission factors for the open burning of automobile components. The assumptions for amount of material burned and the emission factors were based on the USEPA’s AP-42 , Section 2.5 Open Burning.

The estimated number of vehicle fires was determ ined by apportioning a nati onal fire statistic to a county level. The USFA of the Department of Homeland Security maintains national-level fire statistics. The number of vehicle fires na tionwide in 2008 was 236,000 and was available from the USFA website at http:// www.USFA.DHS.gov/statistics. The number of national-level vehicle fires was then apportioned to a state-leve l. The ratio of North Carolina vehicle milesArea Sources Documentation 18 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 18 traveled (VMT) to national VMT (103,598,000,000 VMT / 3,029,822,000,000 VMT) was applied to the number of nationa l-level vehicle fires to obtain the number of North Carolina vehicle fires. The latest VMT information avai lable for both the U.S. and the state is 2007. The U.S. and state VMT statistics were obtained from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration website at http:// www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohim/hs02/vm2.htm/. The number of state-level vehicle fires was then apportioned to a county level based on the 2008 VMT per county as shown in Table 4.5-1 th rough 4.5-3. The 2008 county level VMT was obtained from the NC Department of Transporta tion. The future year VMT was projected using the E-GAS 5.0 model.

Table 4.5-1 Catawba County Vehicle Miles Traveled Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 1,205,670 1,308,253 1,411,432 1,500,373 1,582,047 Urban Freeway or Expressway 380,969 409,388 438,016 486,265 544,270 Urban Other Principal Arterial 1,011,546 1,065,527 1,120,100 1,169,246 1,215,533 Urban Minor Arterial 1,034,709 1,091,506 1,148,770 1,203,608 1,257,116 Urban Collector 321,682 349,200 376,848 402,304 426,633 Urban Local 345,449 374,445 403,850 434,283 465,128 Rural Interstate 74,268 80,041 85,894 92,054 98,345 Rural Other Principal Arterial 237,359 259,937 282,672 305,641 328,686 Rural Minor Arterial 173,455 186,022 198,828 212,146 225,658 Rural Major Collector 124,618 136,729 148,958 160,789 172,393 Rural Minor Collector 250,040 274,203 298,590 321,380 343,315 Rural Local 112,023 120,945 129,990 139,866 150,126 County Total 5,271,788 5,656,196 6,043,948 6,427,955 6,809,250Area Sources Documentation 19 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 19 Table 4.5-2 Davidson Count y Vehicle Miles Traveled Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 738,564 792,268 829,522 867,483 896,320 Urban Freeway or Expressway 605,434 642,240 701,206 747,071 774,221 Urban Other Principal Arterial 672,579 702,058 717,232 746,199 775,827 Urban Minor Arterial 559,623 588,731 611,477 638,368 660,838 Urban Collector 268,511 295,687 315,138 329,927 338,628 Urban Local 359,726 380,817 400,646 418,693 433,307 Rural Interstate 461,013 472,863 495,240 517,551 532,790 Rural Other Principal Arterial 152,576 149,062 153,229 157,698 157,735 Rural Minor Arterial 408,314 422,673 443,420 476,148 508,971 Rural Major Collector 405,273 413,706 430,398 447,189 458,056 Rural Minor Collector 295,215 310,307 324,936 336,649 342,295 Rural Local 377,797 400,311 420,952 435,963 446,836 County Total 5,304,625 5,570,723 5,843,396 6,118,939 6,325,824

Table 4.5-3 Guilford County Vehicle Miles Traveled
Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 3,985,564 4,419,157 4,865,961 5,227,576 5,571,494 Urban Freeway or Expressway 2,251,352 2,452,593 2,613,197 2,905,078 3,275,829 Urban Other Principal Arterial 2,368,151 2,477,254 2,591,662 2,679,083 2,747,293 Urban Minor Arterial 2,727,044 2,837,423 3,012,805 3,147,788 3,247,375 Urban Collector 1,368,123 1,452,017 1,570,260 1,645,148 1,686,518 Urban Local 780,183 815,646 847,770 878,533 907,949 Rural Interstate 989,050 1,090,492 1,229,196 1,351,896 1,457,378 Rural Other Principal Arterial 513,834 545,289 546,548 567,373 595,658 Rural Minor Arterial 244,663 273,514 278,683 287,233 300,400 Rural Major Collector 776,249 838,619 898,783 941,639 980,181 Rural Minor Collector 360,879 393,534 420,122 448,880 480,975 Rural Local 411,379 435,206 655,193 721,391 663,260 County Total 16,776,471 18,030,744 19,530,180 20,801,618 21,914,310

The amount of vehicle material burned (the fuel loading) in a vehicl e fire was estimated by assuming that an average vehicle has 500 pounds of components (0.25 tons ) that can burn in a fire, based on a 3,700 pounds average vehicle weight (CARB, 1995).Area Sources Documentation 20 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 20 The emission factors were obtained from AP-42 , Section 2.5 Open Burning, Table 2.5-1, Emission Factors for Open Burning of Municipa l Refuse for automobile components. The emission factors are 100 pounds of PM 2.5 per ton burned and 4 pounds of NOx per ton burned. The emission factor for PM 2.5 is a conservative estimate based on the total particulate matter.

The future year inventories were grown from th e 2008 base year emissions using growth factors generated by the E-GAS 5.0 model. These grow th factors are listed in Table 4.5-4 below.

Table 4.5-4 Growth Factors for Vehicle Fires

2011 2014 2017 2021 0.988 1.017 1.080 1.171

The emissions for the base inventory and future year projections were ca lculated using equation 4.5-1 and 4.5-2, respectively.

EM P = (# of Vehicle Fires pe r year) x (CF) x (EF P ) (2000 lb/tons) 4.5-1

PJ a EM = EM P x GF a 4.5-2

where EM P = annual emissions for structur e fires for pollutant (P) CF = Conversion factor, 0.25 tons burned/vehicle fire EF P = emission factor for pollutant (P) PJ a EM = projected future year (a) emissions per county GF a = growth factor for future year (a)

The PM 2.5 and NOx emission estimates, in tons/year, from vehicle fires for the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas are listed in Table 4.5-3.Area Sources Documentation 21 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 21 Table 4.5-5 Emissions from Vehicle Fires Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0

The emissions generated from vehicle fires are negligible for both of the nonattainment areas.

4.6 Small Stationary Source Fossil Fuel Use This source category covers NOx, SO 2 , and PM 2.5 , emissions from natural gas (NG) and liquid petroleum gas (LPG), oil, coal, and wood combus tion in the residential, commercial/institutional (referred to as commercial) and industrial sectors.

The “demand for energy” for these fuel types is know n as fuel usage. Fuel usage data for North Carolina was obtained from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA) website for fuel consumption. The latest fuel usage data available from EIA is 2007. TheArea Sources Documentation 22 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 22 emissions estimates for 2008 are conservative because of the current economic downturn resulting in commercial and indus trial sources closing. This is further substantiated by the decrease in the manufacturing em ployment (Table 4.6-6) as reporte d by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The following table shows the fuel usage for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.

Table 4.6-1 2007 Fuel Use in North Carolina Fuel Units Residential Commercial Industrial Natural Gas 10 6 ft 3 58,909 45,861 89,289 LPG gallons 239,256,678 41,811,847 184,668,990 Oil gallons 117,527,897 66,949,824 295,999,749 Coal tons 4,447 40,020 0 Wood tons 1,466,667 233,333 6,633,333

The emission factors used to calculate the fuel oil, NG, LPG and coal combustion emissions were obtained from the NCDAQ permits emissi ons calculations spreadsheets found on-line at http://daq.state.nc.us/permits/spreadsheets/. The emission factors used in the permits emissions calculations were derived from AP-42

.
For the coal combustion commercial source sector, an average for the spreader stoker, overfeed stoker and underfeed stoker emission factors we re calculated and the average emission factor was used to calculate the commercial coal combus tion emissions. The emissions factors used for commercial and industrial source categories for natural gas are for uncontrolled emissions of small boilers (<100 MMBtu/hr). For the resident ial source category for natural gas, the emission factors for uncontrolled residential furnaces we re used for the emissions calculations. The emission factors for commercial propane were used for the LPG residential source category because the AP-42 does not list a separate emission fact or for residential LPG combustion. Propane and butane emission factors were averag ed for the LPG commercial and industrial source categories.

The only source sector that contai ns emissions for wood combustion is residential. The emission factors for the residential source category were derive d from EIIP Tech. Reports , Table 2.4-1.Area Sources Documentation 23 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 23 The emission factors used are s hown in Table 4.6-2 below.

Table 4.6-2 Fuel Combustion Emission Factors Fuel Units NOx SO 2 PM 2.5 Residential NG lb/10 6 ft 3 94 0.6 7.6 LPG lb/gal 0.013 0.00002 0.0007 Oil lb/gal 0.018 0.298 0.000168 Coal lb/ton 9.1 34.1 3.8 Wood lb/ton 2.6 0.4 0 Commercial NG lb/10 6 ft 3 100 0.6 7.6 LPG lb/gal 0.014 0.000017 0.00075 Oil lb/gal 0.033875 0.31605 0.002761 Coal lb/ton 9.3 39.2 3.5 Industrial NG lb/10 6 ft 3 100 0.6 7.6 LPG lb/gal 0.014 0.000017 0.00075 Oil lb/gal 0.033875 0.31605 0.002761

The residential source category for all of the sma ll stationary combustion sources fuel usage for the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas were calculated by apportioning the state total fuel usage to a county level. Fuel usage was a pportioned by applying the ra tio of the number of households heated with the appropri ate fuel type in a county to th e total households in the state heated with the appropriate fuel type, see equation 4.6-1 below.

# gal. fuel per County = (# gal. fuel for Stat e) x (# housing units heated by fuel per County) 4.6-1 (# housing units heated by fuel in State)

The number of households heated with fuel oil, coal, NG, LPG and wood was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. The latest fuel use da ta available was 2007. The number of households heated per fuel type is shown in Table 4.6-3.Area Sources Documentation 24 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 24 Table 4.6-3 Residential Fuel Apportionment Number of Households per Fuel Type County Fuel Oil Coal Natural Gas LPG Wood Catawba 5,223 0 12,831 3,012 1,047 Davidson 9,255 0 8,672 4,064 1,551 Guilford 7,529 0 82,862 8,964 1,561 North Carolina 271,482 406 890,790 383,823 70,715

Commercial and industrial fuel usage was apportioned according to the number of employees in the commercial/industrial business establishments in the state and nonattainment counties. The employment data was obtained from the Count y Business Patterns for the source industrial classification (SIC) codes 31 (ma nufacturing), 42 (wholesale trade) and 44 (retail trade) for 2007, the latest employment data available. The number of employees for these establishments was used to represent the commercial and indu strial source categories. The apportionment numbers are shown in Table 4.6-4 below.

Table 4.6-4 Commercial and Indu strial Fuel Apportionment Total Employees Catawba 45,510 Davidson 19,221 Guilford 88,712 North Carolina 1,167,586

To yield more accurate emissions projections for these categories, the future emissions estimates were apportioned using county population for the residential source sect or and manufacturing employment data for the commercial and industrial source sectors.

For the residential source sect ors, the growth factors are based upon the population for each county. The population for each county is shown in Table 2.2-2. The growth factors were developed based on the ratio of the base year (2008) population to the future years (2011, 2014, 2017 and 2021) population, see equation 4.6-2 below.

Residential Growth Factors = FY pop 4.6-2 BY pop

where BY pop = 2008 population per county FY pop = future year population per countyArea Sources Documentation 25 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 25 Table 4.6-5 below shows the residentia l growth factors for each county.

Table 4.6-5 Residential Growth Factors for Fuel Combustion Source Category 2011 2014 2017 2021 Catawba 1.040 1.080 1.120 1.174 Davidson 1.045 1.094 1.143 1.207 Guilford 1.053 1.106 1.159 1.230

The manufacturing (SIC 31), wholes ale trade (SIC 42) and retail trade (SIC 44) establishments were used to represent the employment data for the commerci al and industrial source sectors. The same methodology used to develop the futu re year population data, using the FORECAST function in Microsoft EXCEL, was employed to calcu late the future year employment data. The table below shows th e employment data.

Table 4.6-6 Manufacturing Employment per County Year Catawba Davidson Guilford 2003 52,160 22,519 93,653 2004 49,738 22,313 94,958 2005 48,449 20,839 91,400 2006 48,072 19,689 89,121 2007 45,510 19,221 88,712 2008 44,296 18,150 86,853 2011 39,806 15,384 82,137 2014 35,316 12,618 77,422 2017 30,827 9,852 72,706 2021 24,840 6,164 66,418

The growth factors were developed based on the ra tio of the base year (2008) employment to the future years (2011, 2014, 2017 and 2021) empl oyment, see equation 4.6-3 below.

Commercial/Industrial Growth Factors = FY emp 4.6-3 BY emp

where BY emp = 2008 employment per county FY emp = future year employment per countyArea Sources Documentation 26 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 26 Based on the manufacturing employment data in Table 4.6-6 above, the commercial and industrial growth factors for each co unty are shown in Table 4.6-7 below.

Table 4.6-7 Commercial/Industrial Grow th Factors for Fuel Combustion Source Category 2011 2014 2017 2021 Catawba 0.8986 0.7973 0.6959 0.5608 Davidson 0.8476 0.6952 0.5428 0.3396 Guilford 0.9457 0.8914 0.8371 0.7647

The emissions for the 2008 base year emissions inventory for each small stationary combustion source were calculated usi ng Equations 4.6-4 – 4.6-8.

Coal EM P = (# tons/year Coal) x EF Coal(P) 4.6-4 (2000 pounds/ton)

NG EM P = (# ft 3 /year NG) x EF NG(P) 4.6-5 (2000 pounds/ton)

LPG EM P = (# gal/year LPG) x EF LPG(P) 4.6-6 (2000 pounds/ton)

Fuel Oil EM P = (# gal/year Fuel Oil) x EF Oil(P) 4.6-7 (2000 pounds/ton)

Wood EM P = (# ton/year Wood) x EF Wood(P) 4.6-8 (2000 pounds/ton)

where Coal EM P = annual emissions for coal combustion for pollutant (P) NG EM P = annual emissions for NG combustion for pollutant (P) LP EM P = annual emissions for LPG combustion for pollutant (P) Fuel Oil EM P = annual emissions for fuel oil combustion for pollutant (P) Wood EM P = annual emissions for wood combustion for pollutant (P) EF (Coal)P = emission factor for coal combustion for pollutant (P) EF (NG)P = emission factor for NG co mbustion for pollutant (P) EF (LPG)P = emission factor for LPG combustion for pollutant (P) EF (Oil)P = emission factor for fuel o il combustion for pollutant (P) EF (Wood)P = emission factor for wood combustion for pollutant (P)

The emissions for the future year projections for each small stationary combustion source were calculated using Equation 4.6-9.Area Sources Documentation 27 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 27 PJ b EM a = EM a x GF ab 4.6-9

where PJ b EM = projected future year (b) emissions per county GF ab = growth factor for base year (a) to future year (b)

The NOx, SO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions estimates for each fuel combustion source, in tons/year, for the residential source sector are listed in Tables 4.6-8 through 4.6-11. Based on U.S. Census Bureau data, Catawba, Davidson and Guilford Coun ties do not use coal as a means of residential heating therefore, there are no em issions estimates for coal combus tion in the residential source sector. There are no PM 2.5 emissions for wood combustion because the EIIP Tech. Reports , Table 2.4-1 does not have an emission factor for PM 2.5 for residential wood combustion.

Table 4.6-8 Residential Source Sector Fuel Oil Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 20 21 22 23 24

Triad Area Davidson 36 38 39 41 44 Guilford 29 31 32 34 36 Triad Total 65 69 71 75 80 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 5 5 5 5 6

Triad Area Davidson 9 9 9 10 10 Guilford 7 7 8 8 9 Triad Total 16 16 17 18 19 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 2 2 2 2 2

Triad Area Davidson 3 3 3 3 3 Guilford 2 2 3 3 3 Triad Total 5 5 6 6 6Area Sources Documentation 28 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 28 Table 4.6-9 Residential Source Sector LPG Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 9 10 10 10 11

Triad Area Davidson 15 16 17 17 18 Guilford 5 5 5 6 6 Triad Total 20 21 22 23 24 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 1 1 1 1

Triad Area Davidson 1 1 1 1 1 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 1 1 1 1 1Area Sources Documentation 29 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 29 Table 4.6-10 Residential Source Sector NG Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 40 41 43 45 47

Triad Area Davidson 27 28 29 31 33 Guilford 258 271 285 299 317 Triad Total 285 299 314 330 350 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 2 2 2 2 2 Triad Total 2 2 2 2 2 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 3 3 3 4 4

Triad Area Davidson 2 2 2 2 3 Guilford 21 22 23 24 26 Triad Total 23 24 25 26 29Area Sources Documentation 30 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 30 Table 4.6-11 Residential Source Sector Wood Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 28 29 30 32 33

Triad Area Davidson 42 44 46 48 50 Guilford 42 44 47 49 52 Triad Total 84 88 93 97 102 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 4 5 5 5 5

Triad Area Davidson 6 7 7 7 8 Guilford 6 7 7 8 8 Triad Total 12 14 14 15 16 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0

The NOx, SO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions estimates for each fuel combustion source, in tons/year, for the commercial and industrial source sectors are listed in Tables 4.6-12 through 4.6-18. There are no wood combustion emissions estimates for th e commercial and indust rial source sectors because the only emission factor s for wood combustion is residential furnaces which are captured in the emissions estimates in the reside ntial source sector. Additionally, there are no coal combustion emissions for the industrial sour ce sector because the emissions generated from coal are accounted for in the point sources inventory.

Point sources are those stationary sources that require an Air Permit to operate. In general, these sources have a potential to emit more than 5 tons per year of CO, NO x , PM, SO 2 and/or VOCArea Sources Documentation 31 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 31 from a single facility. Point source emissi ons with SCC 1-03-002-XXX are identified as commercial coal combustion sources and were deducted from the comm ercial source sector emissions. Additionally, NG point sour ces with SCC 1-03-006-XXX and 1-02-006-XXX, commercial and industrial NG co mbustion sources, respective ly, were deducted from the commercial and industrial source se ctors emissions. The latest av ailable point source emissions data is 2007. Tables 4.6-20 – 4.6-23 illustrates th e point source emissions that were deducted from the commercial coal, commercial fuel oil and commercial NG sources as well as the industrial fuel oil and industrial NG sources.

Table 4.6-12 Commercial Coal Combustion Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 6 6 5 5 4

Triad Area Davidson 3 3 2 2 1 Guilford 14 13 13 12 11 Triad Total 17 16 15 14 12 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 28 26 23 20 16

Triad Area Davidson 13 11 9 7 4 Guilford 60 56 53 50 46 Triad Total 73 67 62 57 50 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 2 2 2 2 1

Triad Area Davidson 1 1 1 1 0 Guilford 5 5 5 5 4 Triad Total 6 6 6 6 4Area Sources Documentation 32 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 32 Table 4.6-13 Commercial Fuel Oil Combustion Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 43 38 34 30 24

Triad Area Davidson 16 14 11 9 5 Guilford 84 80 75 71 65 Triad Total 100 94 86 80 70 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 407 366 324 283 228

Triad Area Davidson 172 146 120 94 59 Guilford 800 756 713 669 611 Triad Total 972 902 833 763 670 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 4 3 3 2 2

Triad Area Davidson 1 1 1 1 0 Guilford 7 7 6 6 5 Triad Total 8 8 7 7 5Area Sources Documentation 33 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 33 Table 4.6-14 Commercial LP G Combustion Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 2 1 1 1 1 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 2 1 1 1 1 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0Area Sources Documentation 34 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 34 Table 4.6-15 Commercial NG Combustion Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 69 62 55 48 39

Triad Area Davidson 31 26 22 17 11 Guilford 131 124 117 110 100 Triad Total 162 150 139 127 111 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 1 1 1 1 1 Triad Total 1 1 1 1 1 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 5 5 4 4 3

Triad Area Davidson 2 2 2 1 1 Guilford 11 11 10 9 9 Triad Total 13 13 12 10 10Area Sources Documentation 35 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 35 Table 4.6-16 Industrial Fuel Oil Combustion Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 190 171 152 132 107

Triad Area Davidson 81 69 56 44 27 Guilford 321 304 286 269 245 Triad Total 402 373 342 313 272 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 1,806 1,623 1,440 1,257 1,013

Triad Area Davidson 764 648 531 415 260 Guilford 3,236 3,060 2,885 2,709 2,475 Triad Total 4,000 3,708 3,416 3,124 2,735 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 15 14 12 11 9

Triad Area Davidson 7 6 5 4 2 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 7 6 5 4 2Area Sources Documentation 36 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 36 Table 4.6-17 Industrial LPG Combustion Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 7 6 5 4 2 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 7 6 5 4 2 SO2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0 PM2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 0 0 0 0 0

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 0 0Area Sources Documentation 37 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 37 Table 4.6-18 Industrial NG Combustion Emissions Pollutant/County 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 NOx Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 156 140 124 108 87

Triad Area Davidson 59 50 41 32 20 Guilford 257 243 229 215 196 Triad Total 316 293 270 247 216 SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 1 1 1 1 1

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 0 0 Guilford 2 2 1 1 1 Triad Total 2 2 1 1 1 PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) Hickory Area Catawba 12 11 10 8 7

Triad Area Davidson 5 4 3 2 2 Guilford 22 21 20 19 17 Triad Total 27 25 23 21 19Area Sources Documentation 38 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 38 Table 4.6-19 Point Source Commercial Coal Combustion Emissions Hickory Area NOx PM 2.5 SO 2 Catawba 1 0 2

Triad Area Davidson 0 0 0 Guilford 0 0 0 Triad Total 0 0 0 Total 1 0 2

Table 4.6-20 Point Source Commercial Fuel Oil Combustion Emissions Hickory Area NOx PM 2.5 SO 2 Catawba 2 0 5

Triad Area Davidson 3 0 2 Guilford 2 0 4 Triad Total 5 0 6 Total 7 0 11

Table 4.6-21 Point Source Commercial Natural Gas Combustion Emissions Hickory Area NOx PM 2.5 SO 2 Catawba 21 1 0

Triad Area Davidson 7 1 2 Guilford 43 2 0 Triad Total 50 3 2 Total 71 4 2Area Sources Documentation 39 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM 2.5 Appendix C.2 Redesignation Demonstration and Ma intenance Plan December 18, 2009 39 Table 4.6-22 Point Source Industrial Fuel Oil Combustion Emissions Hickory Area NOx PM 2.5 SO 2 Catawba 5 0 17

Triad Area Davidson 2 0 6 Guilford 60 148 318 Triad Total 62 148 324 Total 67 148 341

Table 4.6-23 Point Source Industrial Natural Gas Combustion Emissions Hickory Area NOx PM 2.5 SO 2 Catawba 18 1 0

Triad Area Davidson 15 1 0 Guilford 83 3 0 Triad Total 98 4 0 Total 116 5 0