Notes Notes



### Wood stove 7.5 to 4.5 High Low median 2013 dollars High Low median 2013 dollars **Capital Costs Capital Costs**  **R&D/Engineering costs R&D/Engineering costs**  Market research, aesthetic design, initial prototype design/construction/testing, formulate design changes, modify/test prototype 45,500 19,000 32,250 Market research, aesthetic design, initial prototype design/construction/testing, formulate design changes, modify/test prototype 91,000 38,000 64,500
adjust design/test until emission target is met 47,500 30,000 38,750 adjust design/test until emission target is met 95,000 60,000 77,500
construct final prototypes, safety test check. Eng. Drawings/specs, patent application 27,000 17,000 22,000 construct final prototypes, safety test check. Eng. Drawings/specs, patent application 54,000 34,000 44,000 confirm final prototype performance 0 0 0 confirm final prototype performance 0 0 0 **R&D/Engineering Total costs 120,000**  **66,000 93,000**  **R&D/Engineering Total costs 240,000**  **132,000 186,000** 
**Tooling Tooling**  Steel Stove 31,200 9,700 20,450 Steel Stove 31,200 9,700 20,450 Cast Iron Stove 62,000 31,000 46,500 Cast Iron Stove 62,000 31,000 46,500 **Average tooling cost 46,600**  **20,350 33,475**  **Average tooling cost 46,600**  **20,350 33,475** 

**Other Capital Cost components 14,000**  **6,000 10,000** HPBA costs for equipment and integration not included because these are considered duplicative of R&D costs, above **Other Capital Cost components 14,000**  **6,000 10,000** HPBA costs for equipment and integration not included because these are considered duplicative of R&D costs, above
**Total Capital Cost per model 180,600**  **92,350 136,475**  **Total Capital Cost per model 300,600**  **158,350 229,475** 
**Fixed Costs per model Fixed Costs per model**  **Certification Certification** 

EPA testing, Confirmation safety testing or full safety testing, shipping of prototype 19,000 14,500 16,750HBPA costs for personal at lab and travel expenses not accepted as independent third party testing costs EPA testing, Confirmation safety testing or full safety testing, shipping of prototype 19,000 14,500 16,750HBPA costs for personal at lab and travel expenses not accepted as independent third party testing costs Owner's manual, labeling 3,500 1,800 2,650 Owner's manual, labeling 3,500 1,800 2,650

**Roll-out 0**  **0 0** roll-out considered normal business operation and not due to NSPS **Roll-out 0**  **0 0** roll-out considered normal business operation and not due to NSPS
**Total Fixed Capital Cost per model 22,500**  **16,300 19,400**  **Total Fixed Capital Cost per model 22,500**  **16,300 19,400** 
**Total Costs per Model 203,100**  **108,650 155,875**  **Total Costs per Model 323,100**  **174,650 248,875** 

**Annualized capital cost per model** 42,610 22,794 32,702annualized over 6 years at 7% interest (note: NERA annualized over 10 years) **Annualized capital cost per model** 67,785 36,641 52,213annualized over 6 years at 7% interest (note: NERA annualized over 10 years) **Annual cost for development of 4 models** 170,438 91,177 130,808 **Annual cost for development of 4 models** 271,140 146,563 208,852 **Adjustable Burn Rate Stoves, Pellet Stoves & Single Burn Rate** 

**Stoves Single Burn Rate Stoves, first 2**  **years (doubled R&D / Engineering Costs)** 

# Hydronic Heater Uncontrolled to 0.32 High Low median

**Capital Costs R&D/Engineering costs** 

Market research, aesthetic design, initial prototype design/construction/testing, formulate design changes, modify/test prototype 180,000 115,000 147,500 Formulate design changes 4,500 2,500 3,500 Modify prototype 16,000 9,000 12,500 Test/Retest 615,000 410,000 512,500
Construct final prototype, confirm testing, safety testing 133,500 88,500 111,000 Document final changes 8,000 6,000 7,000

**R&D/Engineering total costs 957,000**  **631,000 794,000** 
**Manuracturing/Manufacturing Engineering** Programming and Tooling - Steel parts 22,000 13,000 17,500 Tooling - Refractory 45,000 28,000 36,500 Electronic Control System 10,000 5,000 7,500 Final Production samples/Confirm product. Fitup 25,000 15,000 20,000 Create QA/QC specs 4,000 2,000 3,000 **Manuracturing/Manufacturing Engineering total costs 106,000**  **63,000 84,500** 
**Other Capital Cost components** Purchased parts sourcing 41,000 23,500 32,250 Test first production heaters 200,000 150,000 175,000

Equipment and facilities 75,000 25,000 50,000 **Other Capital Cost components total costs 316,000**  **198,500 257,250** 
**Total Capital Cost per model 1,379,000**  **892,500 1,135,750** 
**Fixed Costs per model Certification**  **Hydronic Heaters & Forced-Air Furnaces** 

# EPA testing, Confirmation safety testing or full safety testing,

shipping of prototype 72,500 36,000 54,250 Owner's manual, labeling 6,500 3,500 5,000 **Certification Total Costs** 79,000 39,500 59,250

**Roll-out 0**  **0 0** 
**Total Fixed Capital Cost per model 79,000**  **39,500 59,250** 
**Total Costs per Model 1,458,000**  **932,000 1,195,000** 

**Annualized capital cost per model 305,882**  **195,530 250,706**  **Annual cost for development of 4 models 1,223,529**  **782,119 1,002,824** 

# Notes

2013 dollars High **Capital Costs R&D/Engineering costs** 

Market research, aesthetic design, initial prototype design/construction/testing, formulate design changes, modify/test prototype 360,000 Formulate design changes 9,000 Modify prototype 32,000 Test/Retest 1,230,000 Construct final prototype, confirm testing, safety testing 267,000 Document final changes 16,000
App. A (NERA) concludes erroneously $887,000 for high cost and $581,000 for low cost. **R&D/Engineering total costs 1,914,000** 
**Manuracturing/Manufacturing Engineering** Programming and Tooling - Steel parts 22,000 Tooling - Refractory 45,000 Electronic Control System 10,000 Final Production samples/Confirm product. Fitup 25,000 Create QA/QC specs 4,000 **Manuracturing/Manufacturing Engineering total costs 106,000** 
**Other Capital Cost components** Purchased parts sourcing 41,000 Test first production heaters 200,000
HPBA costs for equipment and integration not included because these are considered duplicative of R&D costs, above Equipment and facilities 75,000 **Other Capital Cost components total costs 316,000** 
**Total Capital Cost per model 2,336,000** 
**Fixed Costs per model Certification**  **Forced air furnaces, First 2 years (doubled R&D / Engineering** 

# HBPA costs for personal at lab and

travel expenses not accepted as independent third party testing costs EPA testing, Confirmation safety testing or full safety testing, shipping of prototype 72,500 Owner's manual, labeling 6,500 **Certification Total Costs** 79,000

roll-out considered normal business operation and not due to NSPS **Roll-out 0** 
**Total Fixed Capital Cost per model 79,000** 
**Total Costs per Model 2,415,000** 
annualized over 6 years at 7% interest (note: NERA annualized over 10 years)**Annualized capital cost per model 506,657**  **Annual cost for development of 4 models 2,026,627** 

# Notes

Low median 2013 dollars

230,000 295,000 5,000 7,000 18,000 25,000 820,0001,025,000

177,000 222,000 12,000 14,000

**1,262,000 1,588,000** App. A (NERA) concludes

erroneously $887,000 for high cost and $581,000 for low cost.

13,000 17,500 28,000 36,500 5,000 7,500 15,000 20,000 2,000 3,000 **63,000 84,500** 

23,500 32,250 150,000 175,000

25,000 50,000HPBA costs for equipment and

integration not included because these are considered duplicative of R&D costs, above **198,500 257,250** 

**1,523,500 1,929,750**  **Forced air furnaces, First 2 years (doubled R&D / Engineering** 

**costs)**

# 36,000 54,250HBPA costs for personal at lab and travel expenses not accepted as independent third party testing costs 3,500 5,000 39,500 59,250

**0 0** roll-out considered normal

business operation and not due to NSPS

**39,500 59,250** 

**1,563,000 1,989,000** 

**327,911 417,284** annualized over 6 years at 7%

interest (note: NERA annualized over 10 years) **1,311,643 1,669,135** **Table 9. Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer & Nationwide Annual Costs during R&D re-design (2015-2020) and through model lifespan (2020-2029)**

(Step 1 compliance) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Step 2 compliance) 2020 2021 through

20292 (Step 1

compliance) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Step 2 compliance) 2020 2021 through

20292 Wood Stoves (R&D)3 34 125 $88,968 $88,968 $88,968 $88,968 $88,968 $88,968 $0 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $0 Pellet Stoves (R&D, R&R, cert)4,7 29 125 $51,179 $51,179 $51,179 $53,941 $53,941 $53,941 $14,240 $1,484,192 $1,484,192 $1,484,192 $1,564,285 $1,564,285 $1,564,285 $412,963 Single Burn Rate Stoves (R&D, R&R, cert.)5, 6, 7 3 20 $352,506 $352,506 $352,506 $226,704 $226,704 $226,704 $22,025 $1,057,518 $1,057,518 $1,057,518 $680,112 $680,112 $680,112 $66,074 $5,566,638 $5,566,638 $5,566,638 $5,269,325 $5,269,325 $5,269,325 $479,037 Forced Air Furnaces (R&D, R&R, cert.)5, 6, 7 7 50 $2,986,523 $2,986,523 $1,796,681 $1,799,034 $1,799,034 $1,799,034 $36,849 $20,905,663 $20,905,663 $12,576,770 $12,593,240 $12,593,240 $12,593,240 $257,941 Hydronic Heaters (R&D, R&R, cert.)7,8 30 120 $828,513 $828,513 $828,513 $829,831 $829,831 $829,831 $20,635 $24,855,398 $24,855,398 $24,855,398 $24,894,927 $24,894,927 $24,894,927 $619,059 $45,761,061 $45,761,061 $37,432,168 $37,488,168 $37,488,168 $37,488,168 $877,000

Period Nationwide Cost of the Rule
$51,327,699 $51,327,699 $42,998,805 $42,757,493 $42,757,493 $42,757,493 $1,356,037 R&D year average (2015- 2020) $45,654,447 Post R&D year average

(2021-2029) $1,356,037

Subpart: Years Annual $

AAA: 2015-2017 Laboratories $55,000 Third-Party Certifiers $16,000

AAA: 2018-2020 Laboratories $73,000 Third-Party Certifiers $9,000
QQQQ: 2015-2017 Laboratories $36,000 Third-Party Certifiers $15,000
QQQQ: 2018-2020 Laboratories $49,000 Third-Party Certifiers $5,000 Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer based on 6-year R&D round (2015-2020) to meet Step 1 and Step 2 limits with ongoing certification costs (through 2029)

# Manufacturers # Models Nationwide Annual Costs1

QQQQ: Central Heaters AAA: Room Heaters NSPS Subpart Appliance Type

* Reporting and Recordkeeping (R&R) costs for laboratories and certifying entities are not included in this cost analysis but are estimated as follows: 1Nationwide Annual Cost assumes R&D investment is amortized over 6 years (2015 through 2020). Ongoing certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs are incurred through 2029 (based on a model brought to market in 2020 with a lifespan of 10 years). Annual Cost of the Rule

6For single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces, the analysis assumes that only a small percentage meet Step 2 so that approximately 100% of the models undergo R&D re-design to meet Step 2. The R&D budget includes certification costs. Ongoing certification costs for the re-designed models are reflected in this analysis beginning in 2021. Ongoing reporting & recordkeeping for all models are estimated beginning in 2015. 5Based on conversations with industry (e.g., 2/8/13), single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces have been undergoing R&D prior to 2014 to develop cleaner models. Because these devices were previously unregulated and may need to transfer technology from adjustable burn rate stoves and hydronic heaters (respectively) this analysis assumes that these efforts will intensify in 2015 and 2016. Therefore estimated R&D costs are doubled in 2015 and 2016 to reflect model development to meet the more stringent 2020 Step 2 standard. The R&D budget includes certification costs. Ongoing certification costs for the re-designed models are reflected in this analysis beginning in 2021. Ongoing reporting & recordkeeping for all models are estimated beginning in 2015. 4For pellet stoves, the analysis assumes that 70% meet Step 2 already so that 30% of models undergo R&D re-design to meet Step 2. The R&D budget includes certification costs. The analysis also assumes that the 70% of the pellet stove models which already meet Step 2 will certify in an ongoing basis starting in 2015. The analysis reflects the certification costs beginning in 2015 for the 70% of models meeting Step 2, and beginning in 2020 for the remaining 30% of models which underwent R&D re-design. The analysis also reflects ongoing reporting & recordkeeping costs for 100% of the models beginning in 2015. 3This analysis considers additional costs resulting from the NSPS. For wood stoves, the analysis assumes that 26% meet Step 2 already so that 74% of the models will undergo re-design to meet the Step 2 level. The costs modeled for years 2021 through 2029 exclude the ongoing certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs incurred by wood stove manufacturers who already had to certify and report under the existing 1988 NSPS. 2Since certification is required every 5 years , it is assumed that certification costs will be spread out so that 1/5 of the models certify each year.

7Reporting and recordkeeping costs (R&R) are based on the annual average costs derived from the ICR and are estimates of the ongoing R&R burden to manufacturers associated with the NSPS. The annual average nationwide R&R burden estimated to manufacturers for Subpart AAA is approximately$179,000for years 2015 through 2017 and$352,000for years 2018 through 2020. For Subpart QQQQ, the R&R burden to manufacturers is estimated to be $141,000 for years 2015 through 2017 and $197,00 for years 2018 through 2020. Although the 2018 through 2020 costs are carried forward to 2029 for this analysis, actual R&R costs from 2021 through 2029 may vary slightly. These R&R costs do not include the R&R burden to laboratories and certifying entities, which are calculated separately and provided below.*

8For hydronic heaters, the analysis assumes that 18% of models meet Step 2 already so that 82% must undergo R&D to meet Step 2 in 2020. The R&D budget includes certification costs. Ongoing certification costs for the re-designed models are reflected in this analysis beginning in 2021. Ongoing reporting & recordkeeping for all models are estimated beginning in 2015.

# SCC **Appliance Population** **Total Tons**

**Burned Emission Inventory Category**  **Pollutant Baseline**  **Emission factor**  **(lb/ton) Baseline** 

**Emissions (tons)**  **Baseline**

**Tons/appl 2015 Step** 

**1 Emission**  **Factor**

2104008220 1,303,142 1,226,184Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; non-catalytic Primary PM2.5 8.76 5,371 0.0041 8.76

2104008230 427,224 416,187Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; catalytic Primary PM2.5 9.72 2,023 0.0047 9.72

2104008320 873,357 1,540,026Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, non-catalytic Primary PM2.5 8.76 6,745 0.0077 8.76

2104008330 374,154 775,602Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, catalytic Primary PM2.5 9.72 3,769 0.0101 9.72 2104008400 846,931 1,175,337Woodstove: pellet-fired, general Primary PM2.5 3.06 1,798 0.0021 3.06

2,206,4704,668,250Single Burn Rate Stoves Primary PM2.5 30.6 71,424 0.0324 8.76 2104008610 364,560 3,654,153Hydronic heater: outdoor Primary PM2.5 64 116,933 0.3208 6.4 2104008510 351,023 2,624,115Furnace: indoor, cordwood Primary PM2.5 64 83,972 0.2392 16 0.0060Baseline woodstove weighted average (Tons/appl)

## 2008 **2009 2010**  **2011 2012**  **2013 2014**  **2015 2016** 

Wood Stoves 126,527 80,851 77,617 79,169 80,752 82,367 84,015 85,695 87,409 Single Burn Rate Stoves 40,000 25,560 24,538 25,028 25,529 26,039 26,560 27,091 27,633 Pellet Stoves 130,381 83,313 79,981 81,581 83,212 84,876 86,574 88,305 90,072 Furnace: indoor, cordwood 41,000 26,199 25,151 25,654 26,167 26,690 27,224 27,769 28,324 Hydronic Heating Systems 13,385 8,553 8,211 8,375 13,100 13,362 13,629 13,902 14,180

**2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016** Wood Stoves 563 360 345 352 359 367 374 381 389 Single Burn Rate Stoves 1,295 827 794 810 826 843 860 877 895 Pellet Stoves 83 53 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 Furnace: indoor, cordwood 9,808 6,267 6,017 6,137 6,260 6,385 6,513 6,643 6,776 Hydronic Heating Systems 3,520 2,250 2,160 2,203 3,446 3,514 3,585 3,656 3,730 Total **15,269 9,757**  **9,367 9,554**  **10,944 11,163**  **11,386 11,614**  **11,846 Table 4. Estimated Annual Shipped Units** 

**Table 5. Estimated PM 2.5 Emissions (Tons) -- Baseline***

### Baseline PM2.5 

### Emissions2 

### (tons) NSPS PM2.5



### Emissions2 

### (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6 

### CE based on

nationwide average annual cost (per ton) Baseline PM2.5



### Emissions(tons) NSPS PM2.5



### Emissions (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6


### 20154 

### $3,024,928 $1,209,971 381 381 0 N/A 381 381 0 2016 $3,024,928 $1,209,971 389 389 0 N/A 770 770 0 2017 $3,024,928 $1,209,971 397 397 0 N/A 1,167 1,167 0 2018 $3,024,928 $1,209,971 445 445 0 N/A 1,612 1,612 0 2019 $3,024,928 $1,209,971 454 454 0 N/A 2,066 2,066 0 20204 

### $3,024,928 $1,209,971 463 259 204 $5,932 2,529 2,325 204 2021 $0 $1,209,971 472 264 208 $5,816 3,001 2,589 412 2022 $0 $1,209,971 482 269 212 $5,702 3,483 2,859 624 2023 $0 $1,209,971 491 275 216 $5,590 3,974 3,134 841 2024 $0 $1,209,971 501 280 221 $5,480 4,475 3,414 1,061 2025 $0 $1,209,971 511 286 225 $5,373 4,987 3,700 1,287 2026 $0 $1,209,971 521 292 230 $5,267 5,508 3,992 1,516 2027 $0 $1,209,971 532 298 234 $5,164 6,040 4,289 1,751 2028 $0 $1,209,971 542 303 239 $5,063 6,582 4,593 1,990 2029 $0 $1,209,971 553 310 244 $4,964 7,136 4,902 2,233 2030 7,136 4,902 2,233 2031 7,136 4,902 2,233 2032 7,136 4,902 2,233 2033 7,136 4,902 2,233 2034 7,136 4,902 2,233 2035 6,754 4,521 2,233 2036 6,365 4,132 2,233 2037 5,969 3,735 2,233 2038 5,524 3,290 2,233 2039 5,070 2,836 2,233 2040 4,607 2,577 2,029 2041 4,134 2,313 1,821 2042 3,653 2,043 1,609 2043 3,161 1,769 1,393 2044 2,660 1,488 1,172 2045 2,149 1,202 947 2046 1,628 911 717 2047 1,096 613 483 2048 553 310 244

$18,149,566 34,983 $519

3

### These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus wood stoves shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

4

### Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020. For woodstoves, estimates assume that most models already meet the Step 1 limit and that manufacturers will certify and sell existing models meeting Step 1 standard during 2015 through 2019. Therefore no emission reductions are estimated until Step 2 in 2020.

5

### The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS assuming a 10-year model life. Cumulative Emission Reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan Nationwide cumulative cost5 

### Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM**2.5**

### emissions from Wood Stoves

Year3 

### Nationwide

Annual Cost1 

### Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year CE based on total cost & cumulative emission reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan (per ton)

1

### Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020 ). Years2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

### Except for an adjustment in year 2018 based on an industry projection (NERA), estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).Baseline PM2.5 Emissions2 (tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions2 (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6 CE based on

nationwide average annual cost (per ton) Baseline PM2.5

Emissions(tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6
20154 $1,484,192 $857,473 56 56 0 N/A 56 56 0 2016 $1,484,192 $857,473 57 57 0 N/A 114 114 0 2017 $1,484,192 $857,473 59 59 0 N/A 172 172 0 2018 $1,564,285 $857,473 60 60 0 N/A 232 232 0 2019 $1,564,285 $857,473 61 61 0 N/A 293 293 0 20204 $1,564,285 $857,473 62 28 35 $24,853 355 320 35 2021 $412,963 $857,473 63 28 35 $24,366 418 348 70 2022 $412,963 $857,473 65 29 36 $23,888 483 377 106 2023 $412,963 $857,473 66 29 37 $23,419 549 406 142 2024 $412,963 $857,473 67 30 37 $22,960 616 436 180 2025 $412,963 $857,473 69 30 38 $22,510 684 467 218 2026 $412,963 $857,473 70 31 39 $22,069 754 498 256 2027 $412,963 $857,473 71 32 40 $21,636 826 530 296 2028 $412,963 $857,473 73 32 40 $21,212 899 562 337 2029 $412,963 $857,473 74 33 41 $20,796 973 595 378 2030 973 595 378 2031 973 595 378 2032 973 595 378 2033 973 595 378 2034 973 595 378 2035 916 539 378 2036 859 481 378 2037 801 423 378 2038 741 363 378 2039 680 302 378 2040 618 275 343 2041 555 246 308 2042 490 218 272 2043 424 188 236 2044 357 159 198 2045 288 128 160 2046 218 97 121 2047 147 65 82 2048 74 33 41

$12,862,099 5,917 $2,174

4Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020. For pellet stoves, estimates assume that most models already meet the Step 1 limit and that manufacturers will certify and sell existing models meeting Step 1 standard during 2015 through 2019. Therefore no emission reductions are estimated until Step 2 in 2020.

5The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs to bring these stoves to market from 2015 through 2029. CE based on total cost & cumulative emission reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan (per ton)

Nationwide cumulative cost5 Cumulative Emission Reduction over 20-year stove lifespan

6In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount pellet stoves already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 70% of pellet stoves already meet the Step 2 limit). **Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM 2.5** **emissions from Pellet Stoves**

1Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).

3These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus pellet stoves shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048. Year3 Nationwide

Annual Cost1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per yearBaseline PM2.5 Emissions2 (tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions2 (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons) CE based on

nationwide average annual cost (per ton) Baseline PM2.5

Emissions(tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons) 20154 $1,057,518 $387,171 877 251 626 $619 877 251 626 2016 $1,057,518 $387,171 895 256 638 $606 1,771 507 1,264 2017 $1,057,518 $387,171 912 261 651 $595 2,684 768 1,916 2018 $680,112 $387,171 931 266 664 $583 3,614 1,035 2,580 2019 $680,112 $387,171 949 272 678 $571 4,564 1,306 3,257 20204 $680,112 $387,171 968 123 845 $458 5,532 1,430 4,102 2021 $66,074 $387,171 988 126 862 $449 6,520 1,555 4,964 2022 $66,074 $387,171 1,007 128 879 $440 7,527 1,683 5,843 2023 $66,074 $387,171 1,027 131 897 $432 8,554 1,814 6,740 2024 $66,074 $387,171 1,048 133 915 $423 9,602 1,948 7,655 2025 $66,074 $387,171 1,069 136 933 $415 10,671 2,084 8,588 2026 $66,074 $387,171 1,090 139 952 $407 11,762 2,222 9,540 2027 $66,074 $387,171 1,112 142 971 $399 12,874 2,364 10,510 2028 $66,074 $387,171 1,134 144 990 $391 14,009 2,508 11,500 2029 $66,074 $387,171 1,157 147 1,010 $383 15,166 2,655 12,510 2030 15,166 2,655 12,510 2031 15,166 2,655 12,510 2032 15,166 2,655 12,510 2033 15,166 2,655 12,510 2034 15,166 2,655 12,510 2035 14,289 2,404 11,884 2036 13,394 2,148 11,246 2037 12,482 1,887 10,595 2038 11,551 1,621 9,931 2039 10,602 1,349 9,253 2040 9,634 1,226 8,408 2041 8,646 1,100 7,546 2042 7,639 972 6,667 2043 6,611 841 5,770 2044 5,563 708 4,855 2045 4,494 572 3,922 2046 3,404 433 2,971 2047 2,292 292 2,000 2048 1,157 147 1,010

$5,807,558 171,119 $34

4Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020.

5The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs to bring these stoves to market from 2015 through 2029. CE based on total cost & cumulative emission reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan (per ton)

Nationwide cumulative cost5 Cumulative Emission Reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan **Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM 2.5** **emissions from Single Burn Rate Stoves**

1Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).

3These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus single burn rate stoves shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048. Year3 Nationwide

Annual Cost1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per yearBaseline PM2.5 Emissions2 (tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions2 (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6 CE based on

nationwide average annual cost (per ton) Baseline PM2.5

Emissions (tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6
20154 $5,566,638 $2,454,615 1,315 689 626 $3,922 1,315 689 626 2016 $5,566,638 $2,454,615 1,341 702 638 $3,845 2,655 1,391 1,264 2017 $5,566,638 $2,454,615 1,368 716 651 $3,769 4,023 2,108 1,916 2018 $5,269,325 $2,454,615 1,435 771 664 $3,695 5,458 2,879 2,580 2019 $5,269,325 $2,454,615 1,464 787 678 $3,623 6,922 3,665 3,257 20204 $5,269,325 $2,454,615 1,493 410 1,084 $2,265 8,416 4,075 4,341 2021 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,523 418 1,105 $2,221 9,939 4,493 5,446 2022 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,554 426 1,127 $2,177 11,493 4,919 6,573 2023 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,585 435 1,150 $2,135 13,077 5,354 7,723 2024 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,616 444 1,173 $2,093 14,694 5,798 8,896 2025 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,649 452 1,196 $2,052 16,343 6,250 10,092 2026 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,682 462 1,220 $2,012 18,024 6,712 11,312 2027 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,715 471 1,245 $1,972 19,740 7,183 12,557 2028 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,750 480 1,270 $1,934 21,489 7,663 13,827 2029 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,785 490 1,295 $1,896 23,274 8,153 15,122 2030 23,274 8,153 15,122 2031 23,274 8,153 15,122 2032 23,274 8,153 15,122 2033 23,274 8,153 15,122 2034 23,274 8,153 15,122 2035 21,960 7,464 14,496 2036 20,619 6,761 13,857 2037 19,251 6,045 13,206 2038 17,816 5,274 12,542 2039 16,352 4,487 11,864 2040 14,858 4,078 10,781 2041 13,335 3,660 9,676 2042 11,781 3,233 8,548 2043 10,197 2,798 7,398 2044 8,580 2,355 6,226 2045 6,931 1,902 5,029 2046 5,250 1,441 3,809 2047 3,534 970 2,564 2048 1,785 490 1,295

$36,819,222 212,020 $174 **Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM 2.5** **emissions from Room Heaters (Wood Stoves, Pellet Stoves, and Single Burn Rate Stoves)**

Nationwide cumulative cost5

5The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs to bring these stoves to market from 2015 through 2029. Year3 Nationwide

Annual Cost1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost

1Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).

4Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020. In order to not overestimate emission reductions resulting from the rule, for woodstoves and pellet stoves, estimates assume that most models already meet the Step 1 limit and that manufacturers will certify and sell existing models meeting Step 1 standard from 2015 through 2019. Therefore no emission reductions are estimated to result from woodstoves and pellet stoves until Step 2 in 2020.

6In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount room heaters already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 26% of wood stoves and 70% of pellet stoves are estimated to already meet the Step 2 limit). CE based on total cost & cumulative emission reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan (per ton)

3These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus room heaters shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048. Cumulative Emission Reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan Emission Reduction, cumulative per year Annual Snapshots

### Baseline PM2.5 

### Emissions2

### (tons) NSPS PM2.5



### Emissions2 

### (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons) CE based on

nationwide average annual cost (per ton) Baseline PM2.5



### Emissions(tons) NSPS PM2.5



### Emissions (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons) 20154 

### $20,905,663 $6,299,286 6,643 6,643 0 N/A 6,643 6,643 0 20164 

### $20,905,663 $6,299,286 6,776 5,505 1,270 $4,958 13,419 12,148 1,270 20174 

### $12,576,770 $6,299,286 6,911 1,728 5,183 $1,215 20,330 13,876 6,454 2018 $12,593,240 $6,299,286 7,049 1,762 5,287 $1,191 27,379 15,638 11,741 2019 $12,593,240 $6,299,286 7,190 1,798 5,393 $1,168 34,570 17,436 17,134 20204 

### $12,593,240 $6,299,286 7,334 229 7,105 $887 41,904 17,665 24,239 2021 $257,941 $6,299,286 7,481 234 7,247 $869 49,385 17,899 31,486 2022 $257,941 $6,299,286 7,631 238 7,392 $852 57,015 18,137 38,878 2023 $257,941 $6,299,286 7,783 243 7,540 $835 64,798 18,381 46,418 2024 $257,941 $6,299,286 7,939 248 7,691 $819 72,737 18,629 54,109 2025 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,098 253 7,845 $803 80,835 18,882 61,953 2026 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,260 258 8,001 $787 89,094 19,140 69,955 2027 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,425 263 8,161 $772 97,519 19,403 78,116 2028 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,593 269 8,325 $757 106,112 19,672 86,441 2029 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,765 274 8,491 $742 114,877 19,945 94,932 2030 114,877 19,945 94,932 2031 114,877 19,945 94,932 2032 114,877 19,945 94,932 2033 114,877 19,945 94,932 2034 114,877 19,945 94,932 2035 108,235 13,303 94,932 2036 101,459 7,797 93,662 2037 94,548 6,070 88,478 2038 87,498 4,307 83,191 2039 80,308 2,510 77,798 2040 72,974 2,280 70,693 2041 65,493 2,047 63,446 2042 57,862 1,808 56,054 2043 50,079 1,565 48,514 2044 42,140 1,317 40,823 2045 34,043 1,064 32,979 2046 25,783 806 24,977 2047 17,358 542 16,816 2048 8,765 274 8,491

$94,489,287 1,370,447 $69

4

### Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020 for all appliances, except forced-air furnaces have work practice/operational standards in 2015, Step 1 emission limits for small furnaces in 2016, Step 1 emission limits for large furnaces in 2017 and Step 2 emission limits for all furnaces in 2020.
5

### The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs to bring these heaters to market from 2014 through 2029. CE based on total cost & cumulative emission reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan (per ton)

Nationwide cumulative cost5 

### Cumulative Emission Reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan **Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM 2.5** 

### emissions from Forced Air Furnaces

1

### Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

### Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).

3

### These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus forced-air furnaces shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048. Year3 

### Nationwide

Annual Cost1 

### Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year

### Baseline PM2.5 

### Emissions2

### (tons) NSPS PM2.5



### Emissions2 

### (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6 

### CE based on

nationwide average annual cost (per ton) Baseline PM2.5



### Emissions(tons) NSPS PM2.5



### Emissions (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6


### 20154 

### $24,855,398 $10,321,500.34 3,656 366 3,291 $3,137 3,656 366 3,291 2016 $24,855,398 $10,321,500.34 3,730 373 3,357 $3,075 7,386 739 6,647 2017 $24,855,398 $10,321,500.34 3,804 380 3,424 $3,015 11,190 1,119 10,071 2018 $24,894,927 $10,321,500.34 3,880 388 3,492 $2,956 15,070 1,507 13,563 2019 $24,894,927 $10,321,500.34 3,958 396 3,562 $2,898 19,028 1,903 17,125 20204 

### $24,894,927 $10,321,500.34 4,037 126 3,911 $2,639 23,065 2,029 21,036 2021 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,118 129 3,989 $2,587 27,183 2,158 25,025 2022 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,200 131 4,069 $2,537 31,383 2,289 29,094 2023 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,284 134 4,150 $2,487 35,667 2,423 33,244 2024 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,370 137 4,233 $2,438 40,037 2,559 37,477 2025 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,457 139 4,318 $2,390 44,494 2,699 41,795 2026 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,546 142 4,404 $2,344 49,040 2,841 46,199 2027 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,637 145 4,492 $2,298 53,677 2,986 50,692 2028 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,730 148 4,582 $2,253 58,407 3,133 55,274 2029 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,825 151 4,674 $2,208 63,232 3,284 59,947 2030 63,232 3,284 59,947 2031 63,232 3,284 59,947 2032 63,232 3,284 59,947 2033 63,232 3,284 59,947 2034 63,232 3,284 59,947 2035 59,575 2,919 56,657 2036 55,846 2,546 53,300 2037 52,042 2,165 49,876 2038 48,161 1,777 46,384 2039 44,204 1,381 42,822 2040 40,167 1,255 38,911 2041 36,049 1,127 34,922 2042 31,849 995 30,854 2043 27,565 861 26,703 2044 23,195 725 22,470 2045 18,738 586 18,152 2046 14,192 443 13,748 20473 

### 9,554 299 9,256 20483 

### 4,825 151 4,674

$154,822,505 808,415 $192

4

### Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020.

5

### The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs to bring these heaters to market from 2014 through 2029. CE based on total cost & cumulative emission reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan (per ton)

Nationwide cumulative cost5 

### Cumulative Emission Reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan

6

### In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount hydronic heaters already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 18% of hydronic heaters are estimated to already meet the Step 2 limit). **Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM 2.5** 

### emissions from Hydronic Heating Systems

1

### Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

### Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).

3

### These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus hydronic heaters shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048. Year Nationwide

Annual Cost1 

### Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per yearBaseline PM2.5 Emissions2(tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions2 (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6 CE based on

nationwide average annual cost (per ton) Baseline PM2.5

Emissions(tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6
20154 $45,761,061 $16,620,786 10,299 7,008 3,291 $5,051 10,299 7,008 3,291 20164 $45,761,061 $16,620,786 10,505 5,878 4,627 $3,592 20,804 12,887 7,918 20174 $37,432,168 $16,620,786 10,715 2,108 8,607 $1,931 31,520 14,995 16,525 2018 $37,488,168 $16,620,786 10,930 2,150 8,779 $1,893 42,449 17,145 25,304 2019 $37,488,168 $16,620,786 11,148 2,193 8,955 $1,856 53,598 19,339 34,259 20204 $37,488,168 $16,620,786 11,371 355 11,016 $1,509 64,969 19,694 45,275 2021 $877,000 $16,620,786 11,599 362 11,236 $1,479 76,567 20,056 56,511 2022 $877,000 $16,620,786 11,831 370 11,461 $1,450 88,398 20,426 67,972 2023 $877,000 $16,620,786 12,067 377 11,690 $1,422 100,465 20,803 79,662 2024 $877,000 $16,620,786 12,309 385 11,924 $1,394 112,774 21,188 91,586 2025 $877,000 $16,620,786 12,555 392 12,162 $1,367 125,329 21,580 103,748 2026 $877,000 $16,620,786 12,806 400 12,406 $1,340 138,134 21,980 116,154 2027 $877,000 $16,620,786 13,062 408 12,654 $1,314 151,196 22,389 128,808 2028 $877,000 $16,620,786 13,323 416 12,907 $1,288 164,519 22,805 141,714 2029 $877,000 $16,620,786 13,590 425 13,165 $1,263 178,109 23,230 154,879 2030 178,109 23,230 154,879 2031 178,109 23,230 154,879 2032 178,109 23,230 154,879 2033 178,109 23,230 154,879 2034 178,109 23,230 154,879 2035 167,810 16,221 151,589 2036 157,305 10,343 146,962 2037 146,589 8,235 138,355 2038 135,660 6,084 129,575 2039 124,511 3,891 120,620 2040 113,140 3,536 109,605 2041 101,542 3,173 98,368 2042 89,711 2,803 86,908 2043 77,644 2,426 75,217 2044 65,335 2,042 63,294 2045 52,781 1,649 51,131 2046 39,975 1,249 38,726 20473 26,913 841 26,072 20483 13,590 425 13,165

$249,311,792 2,178,862 $114 **Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM 2.5** **emissions from Central Heaters (Forced Air Furnaces and Hydronic Heating Systems)**

5The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs to bring these heaters to market from 2014 through 2029. 1Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).

3These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus models shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

4Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020 for all appliances, except forced-air furnaces have work practice/operational standards in 2015, Step 1 emission limits for small furnaces in 2016, Step 1 emission limits for large furnaces in 2017 and Step 2 emission limits for all furnaces in 2020. CE based on total cost & cumulative emission reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan (per ton) Year3 Nationwide

Annual Cost1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year

6In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount central heaters already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 18% of hydronic heaters are estimated to already meet the Step 2 limit). Nationwide cumulative cost5 Cumulative Emission Reduction over 20-year emitting lifespanBaseline PM2.5 Emissions2 (tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions2 (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6 CE based on

nationwide average annual cost (per ton) Baseline PM2.5

Emissions(tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6
20154 $51,327,699 $19,075,401 11,614 7,697 3,917 $4,870 11,614 7,697 3,917 20164 $51,327,699 $19,075,401 11,846 6,581 5,265 $3,623 23,460 14,278 9,182 20174 $42,998,805 $19,075,401 12,083 2,825 9,258 $2,060 35,543 17,102 18,440 2018 $42,757,493 $19,075,401 12,365 2,922 9,443 $2,020 47,908 20,024 27,884 2019 $42,757,493 $19,075,401 12,612 2,980 9,632 $1,980 60,520 23,004 37,516 20204 $42,757,493 $19,075,401 12,865 765 12,099 $1,577 73,385 23,769 49,616 2021 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 13,122 780 12,341 $1,546 86,507 24,550 61,957 2022 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 13,384 796 12,588 $1,515 99,891 25,346 74,545 2023 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 13,652 812 12,840 $1,486 113,543 26,158 87,385 2024 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 13,925 828 13,097 $1,456 127,468 26,986 100,482 2025 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 14,203 845 13,359 $1,428 141,671 27,831 113,841 2026 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 14,488 862 13,626 $1,400 156,159 28,692 127,466 2027 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 14,777 879 13,898 $1,372 170,936 29,571 141,365 2028 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 15,073 897 14,176 $1,346 186,009 30,468 155,541 2029 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 15,374 914 14,460 $1,319 201,383 31,382 170,001 2030 201,383 31,382 170,001 2031 201,383 31,382 170,001 2032 201,383 31,382 170,001 2033 201,383 31,382 170,001 2034 201,383 31,382 170,001 2035 189,769 23,685 166,084 2036 177,923 17,104 160,819 2037 165,840 14,280 151,561 2038 153,475 11,358 142,117 2039 140,863 8,378 132,485 2040 127,998 7,613 120,385 2041 114,877 6,833 108,044 2042 101,492 6,037 95,456 2043 87,840 5,225 82,616 2044 73,915 4,396 69,519 2045 59,712 3,552 56,160 2046 45,224 2,690 42,535 20473 30,447 1,811 28,636 20483 15,374 914 14,460

$286,131,014 2,390,882 $120 Nationwide Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots

1Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).

3These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus models shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

4Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020 for all appliances, except forced-air furnaces have work practice/operational standards in 2015, Step 1 emission limits for small furnaces in 2016, Step 1 emission limits for large furnaces in 2017 and Step 2 emission limits for all furnaces in 2020.

6In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount room heaters and central heaters already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 26% of wood stoves, 70% of pellet stoves and 18% of hydronic heaters are estimated to already meet the Step 2 limit). **Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM 2.5** **emissions from Central Heaters (Forced Air Furnaces and Hydronic Heating Systems) and Room Heaters (Wood Stoves, Pellet Stoves, and Single Burn Rate Stoves)** 
CE based on total cost & cumulative emission reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan (per ton) Emission Reduction, cumulative per year

Nationwide cumulative cost5 Cumulative Emission Reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan

5The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs to bring these heaters to market from 2014 through 2029. Year3 Nationwide

Annual Cost1