p.1 

OAR Box 1828 

Prepped by Ollie Stewart 

Document Number: 

146) M-K-(B)-145 

Docket Number: 

A-83-27 

Printed 11/12/2008 11:12:53 AM Sheet 146 of 325 
P.2 

TM " L—l ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, INC. / \ " Q O " _!- I 

I II-K-(B)-145 

July 16, 1984 

Mr. Robert Short 

Economic Analysis Branch 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Mail Drop-12 

Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 

Subject: Contract No. 68-02-3564, Work Assignment #17 

Revised Annualized Industrial Natural Gas Prices 

Dear Robert: 

The attached tables present annualized industrial fuel prices. The 

attached tables present the same annualized industrial coal prices that 

I forwarded to you on June 8, 1984. The attached tables also present 

the same annualized industrial residual fuel oil prices that I forwarded 

to you on June 29, 1984. However, the attached tables include revisions 

of annualized industrial natural gas prices which were sent to you on 

June 29, 1984. 

The attached tables were derived based on the fuel price forecasts 

presented in Appendices A and B of "Regional Projections of Industrial 

Fuel Prices," dated July 13, 1984. 

Sincerely, 

Tim Hogan 

TH/ce 

Enclosures 

cc: Dr. A. Wehe 

Economic s / Engineerin g 
P.3 

ANNUALIZED INDUSTRIAL FUEL PRICES: 

(1982 $/MMBtu) 

REFERENCE CASE3 

Fuel type 

New 

England 

New York/ 

New Jersey 

Middle 

Atlantic 

South 

Atlantic Midwest 

Natural gas 5.71 5.67 5.62 5.90 5.76 

Residual fuel oil 

3.0% S 

1.6% S 

0.8% S 

0.3% S 

Bituminous coalc 

(lb S02/MMBtu) 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

>5.00 

Subbituminous coalc 

(lb S02/MMBtu) 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

4.71 

5.02 

5.39 

5.75 

3.69 

3.64 

3.58 

3.39 

3.10 

3.20 

--

— 

—— 

4.70 

5.01 

5.38 

5.74 

3.45 

3.38 

3.23 

3.07 

2.76 

2.79 

--

— 

•• •* 

4.70 

5.01 

5.38 

5.74 

3.08 

2.88 

2.79 

2.70 

2.37 

2.34 

--

--

— "" 

4.68 

4.99 

5.35 

5.72 

3.13 

2.92 

2.90 

2.82 

2.74 

2.57 

--

--

—— 

4.84 

5.15 

5.52 

5.89 

3.25 

3.12 

3.02 

2.87 

2.62 

2.45 

3.31 

3.27 

3.24 

Ten percent discount rate. Fifteen year period beginning in 1987. 

""Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. Base Case world oil price forecast. 

'Based on an ICF Incorporated forecast of delivered industrial coal prices, 
r * 

P.4 

ANNUALIZED INDUSTRIAL FUEL PRICES: 

(1982 $/MMBtu) 

(Continuation) 

REFERENCE CASE0 

Fuel type Southwest Central 

North 

Central West Northwest 

Natural gas 5.30 5.34 4.81 5.33 5.46 

Residual fuel oil 

3.0% S 

1.6% S 

0.8% S 

0.3% S 

Bituminous coal c 

(lb S02/MMBtu) 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

2.50-3.33 

3.33-5.00 

>5.00 

Subbituminous coal 

(lb S02/MMBtu) 

<1.08 

1.08-1.67 

1.67-2.50 

4.70 

5.01 

5.38 

5.74 

3.27 

3.15 

3.14 

3.13 

3.03 

2.90 

3.42 

3.32 

3.26 

4.81 

5.12 

5.49 

5.86 

3.08 

3.02 

2.98 

2.86 

2.57 

2.42 

2.69 

2.64 

2.67 

4.51 

4.83 

5.19 

5.56 

1.95 

1.82 

1.83 

1.37 

1.36 

1.26 

4.30 

4.62 

5.01 

5.34 

2.74 

2.76 

2.72 

2.78 

2.69 

2.60 

4.26 

4.58 

4.97 

5.30 

3.12 

2.91 

2.78 

2.61 

2.55 

2.05 

Ten percent discount rate. Fifteen year period beginning in 1987. 

^Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. Base Case world oil price forecast. 

'Based on an ICF Incorporated forecast of delivered industrial coal prices.