APPENDIX 11B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACT

ANALYSIS

T ABLE O F CONTENTS

11B.1 I NTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................11B­1

11B.2 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................11B­1

11B.2.1 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ..............................................................11B­1

11B.2.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

................................................... 11B­1

11B.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................... 11B­10

11B.2.2 NET PRESENT VALUE............................................................................11B­13

11B.2.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

................................................. 11B­13

11B.2.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................... 11B­22

LIST O F TABLES

Table 1 1B.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­2

Table 1 1B.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­3

Table 1 1B.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Existing, Roll­up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­4

Table 1 1B.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Existing, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­5

Table 1 1B.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, Market Segment­Based Lighting

Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads) ...................................................11B­6

Table 1 1B.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll­up, High Lighting Expertise

Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................11B­7

Table 1 1B.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­8

Table 1 1B.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, Market Segment­Based Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­9

Table 1 1B.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)...............................11B­10

Table 11B.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012­2042) (quads).......11B­10

11B­iTable 11B.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing

Technologies, S hift, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­11

Ta ble 11B.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, R oll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­11

Ta ble 11B.13 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing

Technologies, S hift, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­11

Ta ble 11B.14 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing

Technologies, R oll­up, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­11

Ta ble 11B.15 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing

Technologies, R oll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­12

Ta ble 11B.16 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, S hift, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­12

Ta ble 11B.17 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, S hift, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­12

Ta ble 11B.18 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, R oll­up, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­12

Ta ble 11B.19 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Ex isting Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(billion 2 007$) .........................................................................................11B­14

Table 11B.20 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Em erging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based

Expertise S cenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$) .....................................11B­15

Table 11B.21 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Ex isting Technologies, Roll­up, High Expertise Scenario (2012­

2042) ( billion 2007$) ...............................................................................11B­16

Table 11B.22 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Ex isting Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Expertise

Scenario ( 2012­2042) (billion 2007$) .....................................................11B­17

Table 11B.23 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Ex isting Technologies, Shift, Market Segment­Based Lighting

Expertise S cenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$) .....................................11B­18

Table 11B.24 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Em erging Technologies, Roll­up, High Expertise Scenario (2012­

2042) ( billion 2007$) ...............................................................................11B­19

Table 11B.25 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Em erging Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012­

2042) ( billion 2007$) ...............................................................................11B­20

11B­iiTable 11B.26 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Em erging Technologies, Shift, Market Segment­Based Expertise

Scenario ( 2012­2042) (billion 2007$) .....................................................11B­21

Table 11B.27 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, 10% Lumen

Increase ( 2012­2042) (billion 2007$) ......................................................11B­22

Table 11B.28 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen

Increase ( 2012­2042) (billion 2007$) ......................................................11B­22

Table 11B.29 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, Product

Substitution ( 2012­2042) (billion 2007$) ................................................11B­23

Table 11B.30 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No

Product S ubstitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­23

Table 11B.31 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, No

Product S ubstitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­23

Table 11B.32 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll­up,

Product S ubstitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­24

Table 11B.33 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll­up, No

Product S ubstitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­24

Table 11B.34 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, Product

Substitution ( 2012­2042) (billion 2007$) ................................................11B­24

Table 11B.35 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, No

Product S ubstitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­25

Table 11B.36 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll­up,

Product S ubstitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­25

11B­iiiAPPENDIX 11B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACTS

ANALYSIS

1 1B.1 I NTRODUCTION

In t his appendix, DOE presents the national energy savings (NES) and net present value

(NPV) results for an additional incandescent reflector lamp (IRL) sensitivity scenario: the 10

percent lumen increase sensitivity. DOE also presents the NES and NPV results for all eight

possible shipments scenarios for general service fluorescent lamps (GSFL) and IRL.

11B.2 R ESULTS

11B.2.1 N ATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

11B.2.1.1 G eneral Service Fluorescent Lamps

Table 1 1B.1 through Table 11B.8 provide NES results for each trial standard level (TSL)

considered for general service fluorescent lamps under all eight possible scenarios. Results are

cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads.

11B­1Table 11B.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL P roduct C lass NES

( Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 1.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10

8­foot recessed double contact high output (HO) 0.18

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin standard output (SO) 0.76

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.77

4­foot medium bipin 1.57

8­foot single pin slimline 0.13

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.24

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.76

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.90

4­foot medium bipin 4.76

8­foot single pin slimline 0.18

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.25

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.76

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.22

TOTAL 7.33

4­foot medium bipin 8.23

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.76

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.37

TOTAL 11.64

4­foot medium bipin 9.53

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.72

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.91

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.43

TOTAL 13.17

11B­2Table 11B.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Emerging, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL P roduct C lass NES

( Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 0.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.08

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.02

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.12

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.02

TOTAL 1.32

4­foot medium bipin 0.60

8­foot single pin slimline 0.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.12

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.03

TOTAL 1.70

4­foot medium bipin 1.99

8­foot single pin slimline 0.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.12

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.09

TOTAL 3.24

4­foot medium bipin 2.70

8­foot single pin slimline 0.23

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.12

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.12

TOTAL 4.49

4­foot medium bipin 3.72

8­foot single pin slimline 0.25

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.67

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.17

TOTAL 5.75

11B­3Table 11B.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Existing, Roll­up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL P roduct C lass NES

( Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 1.27

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.11

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.06

TOTAL 2.73

4­foot medium bipin 1.53

8­foot single pin slimline 0.12

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.09

4­foot medium bipin 3.32

8­foot single pin slimline 0.18

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.15

TOTAL 5.04

4­foot medium bipin 5.35

8­foot single pin slimline 0.29

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.24

TOTAL 7.77

4­foot medium bipin 9.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.72

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.78

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.43

TOTAL 12.66

11B­4Table 11B.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Existing, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL P roduct C lass NES

( Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 0.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.08

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.02

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.15

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.02

TOTAL 1.35

4­foot medium bipin 0.60

8­foot single pin slimline 0.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.15

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.03

TOTAL 1.73

4­foot medium bipin 2.15

8­foot single pin slimline 0.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.15

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.10

TOTAL 3.44

4­foot medium bipin 2.97

8­foot single pin slimline 0.23

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.15

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.13

TOTAL 4.80

4­foot medium bipin 4.28

8­foot single pin slimline 0.25

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.67

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.36

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.19

TOTAL 6.40

11B­5Table 11B.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Existing, Shift, Market Segment­Based Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)

TSL P roduct C lass NES

( Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 0.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.08

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.04

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.02

TOTAL 1.74

4­foot medium bipin 0.60

8­foot single pin slimline 0.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.21

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.03

TOTAL 2.12

4­foot medium bipin 2.56

8­foot single pin slimline 0.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.22

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.12

TOTAL 4.28

4­foot medium bipin 3.78

8­foot single pin slimline 0.26

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.17

TOTAL 6.06

4­foot medium bipin 4.28

8­foot single pin slimline 0.26

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.67

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.42

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.19

TOTAL 6.62

11B­6Table 11B.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Emerging, Roll­up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL P roduct C lass NES

( Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 1.27

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.11

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.06

TOTAL 2.68

4­foot medium bipin 1.53

8­foot single pin slimline 0.12

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.03

4­foot medium bipin 2.98

8­foot single pin slimline 0.18

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.14

TOTAL 4.63

4­foot medium bipin 4.85

8­foot single pin slimline 0.29

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.22

TOTAL 7.20

4­foot medium bipin 8.24

8­foot single pin slimline 0.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.72

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.63

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.37

TOTAL 11.27

11B­7Table 11B.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Emerging, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL P roduct C lass NES

( Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 1.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.18

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.62

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.62

4­foot medium bipin 1.57

8­foot single pin slimline 0.13

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.24

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.62

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.76

4­foot medium bipin 4.24

8­foot single pin slimline 0.18

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.25

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.62

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.19

TOTAL 6.64

4­foot medium bipin 7.31

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.62

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.33

TOTAL 10.54

4­foot medium bipin 8.34

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.72

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.74

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.38

TOTAL 11.75

11B­8Table 11B.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Emerging, Shift, Market Segment­Based Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL P roduct C lass NES

( Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 0.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.08

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.04

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.30

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.02

TOTAL 1.67

4­foot medium bipin 0.60

8­foot single pin slimline 0.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.21

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.30

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.03

TOTAL 2.04

4­foot medium bipin 2.33

8­foot single pin slimline 0.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.22

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.30

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.11

TOTAL 3.95

4­foot medium bipin 3.34

8­foot single pin slimline 0.26

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.30

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.15

TOTAL 5.52

4­foot medium bipin 3.72

8­foot single pin slimline 0.26

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.67

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.17

TOTAL 5.96

11B­91

2

3

4

5 11B.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Table 1 1B.11 and Table 11B.10 provide NES results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector lamps under the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivities. Results are

cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. In general, the

10 percent lumen increase scenario reflects lower energy savings than the other shipment

scenarios, as it incorporates higher­wattage or same­wattage lamp designs.

Table 1 1B.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

0.15

0 .65

1 .40

2 .01

2 .48

T able 1 1B.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

1 0.02

2 0.31

3 0.69

4 1.06

5 1.28

Ta ble 1 1B.11 through Table 11B.18 provide NES results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector lamps under all eight possible scenarios. Results are cumulative to 2042

and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads.

11B­101

2

3

4

5 Table 11B.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

0.37

1 .06

1 .89

2 .32

2 .60

T able 1 1B.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

1 0.22

2 0.52

3 1.00

4 1.25

5 1.48

T able 1 1B.13 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

Shift, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

1 0.37

2 1.02

3 1.88

4 2.32

5 2.70

T able 1 1B.14 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

Roll­up, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

1 0.37

2 0.90

3 1.72

4 2.21

5 2.60

11B­111

2

3

4

5 Table 11B.15 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

0.37

0 .87

1 .72

2 .21

2 .70

T able 1 1B.16 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

1 0.28

2 0.60

3 1.06

4 1.27

5 1.43

T able 1 1B.17 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

Shift, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

1 0.22

2 0.54

3 1.01

4 1.26

5 1.48

T able 1 1B.18 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

Roll­up, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial S tandard Level NES ( Quads)

1 0.28

2 0.58

3 1.04

4 1.26

5 1.43

11B­1211B.2.2 NET PRESENT VALUE

11B.2.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Table 1 1B.19 and Table 11B.26 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for general

service fluorescent lamps under all eight possible scenarios.

11B­13Table 11B.19 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Existing Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL P roduct C lass NPV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted

a t 7% Discounted a t

3%

4­foot medium bipin 3.93 9.04

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10 0.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.35 0.60

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.11 2.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.18 0.41

TOTAL 7.12 16.46

4­foot medium bipin 3.14 7.78

8­foot single pin slimline 0.15 0.45

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.43 0.73

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.11 2.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.35

TOTAL 6.43 15.39

4­foot medium bipin 7.56 17.53

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.81

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.12 0.26

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.11 2.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.34 0.80

TOTAL 11.09 25.67

4­foot medium bipin 17.47 35.93

8­foot single pin slimline 0.87 1.89

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.11 2.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.79 1.63

TOTAL 23.37 48.61

4­foot medium bipin 18.37 38.56

8­foot single pin slimline 0.87 1.89

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.38 2.62

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.46

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.83 1.75

TOTAL 24.49 51.90

11B­14Table 11B.20 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(billion 2007$)

TSL P roduct C lass NPV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted

a t 7% Discounted a t

3%

4­foot medium bipin ­0.01 0.73

8­foot single pin slimline 0.03 0.21

8­foot recessed double contact HO ­0.17 ­0.24

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.19

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.00 0.03

TOTAL 0.71 2.82

4­foot medium bipin ­0.35 0.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.35

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.53 0.87

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.19

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped ­0.02 0.02

TOTAL 1.11 3.85

4­foot medium bipin 1.79 5.58

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.80

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.06 0.14

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.19

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.08 0.25

TOTAL 3.23 8.98

4­foot medium bipin 5.97 13.34

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38 0.97

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.19

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.27 0.61

TOTAL 8.85 19.59

4­foot medium bipin 5.53 12.80

8­foot single pin slimline 0.45 1.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.28 2.46

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.23 0.69

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.25 0.58

TOTAL 8.54 19.53

11B­15Table 11B.21 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Existing Technologies, Roll­up, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL P roduct C lass NPV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted

a t 7% Discounted a t

3%

4­foot medium bipin 3.15 7.37

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.32

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.23 0.37

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.33 0.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.34

TOTAL 5.14 12.08

4­foot medium bipin 3.06 7.59

8­foot single pin slimline 0.15 0.45

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.49 0.79

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.33 0.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.35

TOTAL 5.36 12.86

4­foot medium bipin 4.47 11.49

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.81

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.02 0.06

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.33 0.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.20 0.52

TOTAL 6.66 16.67

4­foot medium bipin 12.75 26.76

8­foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.33 0.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.58 1.22

TOTAL 16.92 35.75

4­foot medium bipin 18.29 38.33

8­foot single pin slimline 0.77 1.70

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.38 2.62

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.45

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.83 1.74

TOTAL 24.07 50.87

11B­16Table 11B.22 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Existing Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(billion 2007$)

TSL P roduct C lass NPV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted

a t 7% Discounted a t

3%

4­foot medium bipin (0.01) 0.73

8­foot single pin slimline 0.03 0.21

8­foot recessed double contact HO (0.17) (0.24)

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped (0.00) 0.03

TOTAL 0.73 2.87

4­foot medium bipin (0.35) 0.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.35

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.53 0.87

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped (0.02) 0.02

TOTAL 1.13 3.91

4­foot medium bipin 1.84 5.75

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.80

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.06 0.14

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.08 0.26

TOTAL 3.29 9.21

4­foot medium bipin 6.43 14.49

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38 0.97

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.29 0.66

TOTAL 9.34 20.85

4­foot medium bipin 6.01 14.07

8­foot single pin slimline 0.45 1.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.28 2.46

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29 0.89

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.27 0.64

TOTAL 9.11 21.05

11B­17Table 11B.23 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Existing Technologies, Shift, Market Segment­Based Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­

2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL P roduct C lass NPV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted

a t 7% Discounted a t

3%

4­foot medium bipin (0.01) 0.73

8­foot single pin slimline 0.03 0.21

8­foot recessed double contact HO (0.14) (0.19)

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.40 1.07

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped (0.00) 0.03

TOTAL 1.23 4.09

4­foot medium bipin (0.35) 0.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.35

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.52 0.86

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.40 1.07

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped (0.02) 0.02

TOTAL 1.60 5.06

4­foot medium bipin 2.47 6.93

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.80

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.09 0.18

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.40 1.07

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.11 0.32

TOTAL 4.50 11.74

4­foot medium bipin 7.07 15.66

8­foot single pin slimline 0.45 1.12

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.40 1.07

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.32 0.71

TOTAL 10.63 23.49

4­foot medium bipin 5.90 13.84

8­foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.28 2.46

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29 0.90

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.27 0.63

TOTAL 9.15 21.21

11B­18Table 11B.24 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL P roduct C lass NPV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted

a t 7% Discounted a t

3%

4­foot medium bipin 3.15 7.37

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.32

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.23 0.37

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.34

TOTAL 5.08 11.91

4­foot medium bipin 3.06 7.59

8­foot single pin slimline 0.15 0.45

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.49 0.79

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.35

TOTAL 5.30 12.69

4­foot medium bipin 4.15 10.61

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.81

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.02 0.06

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.19 0.48

TOTAL 6.27 15.57

4­foot medium bipin 11.92 24.65

8­foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.54 1.12

TOTAL 16.00 33.39

4­foot medium bipin 16.94 34.78

8­foot single pin slimline 0.77 1.70

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.38 2.62

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.25 2.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.77 1.58

TOTAL 22.44 46.57

11B­19Table 11B.25 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Emerging Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL P roduct C lass NPV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted

a t 7% Discounted a t

3%

4­foot medium bipin 3.93 9.04

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10 0.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.35 0.60

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.95 2.23

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.18 0.41

TOTAL 6.95 15.99

4­foot medium bipin 3.14 7.78

8­foot single pin slimline 0.15 0.45

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.43 0.73

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.95 2.23

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.35

TOTAL 6.26 14.92

4­foot medium bipin 7.08 16.24

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.81

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.12 0.26

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.95 2.23

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.32 0.74

TOTAL 10.42 23.85

4­foot medium bipin 16.37 33.04

8­foot single pin slimline 0.87 1.89

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.95 2.23

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.74 1.50

TOTAL 22.04 45.11

4­foot medium bipin 17.02 35.00

8­foot single pin slimline 0.87 1.89

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.38 2.62

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.23 2.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.77 1.59

TOTAL 22.86 47.59

11B­20Table 11B.26 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Emerging Technologies, Shift, Market Segment­Based Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(billion 2007$)

TSL P roduct C lass NPV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted

a t 7% Discounted a t

3%

4­foot medium bipin (0.01) 0.73

8­foot single pin slimline 0.03 0.21

8­foot recessed double contact HO (0.14) (0.19)

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped (0.00) 0.03

TOTAL 1.15 3.87

4­foot medium bipin (0.35) 0.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.35

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.52 0.86

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped (0.02) 0.02

TOTAL 1.52 4.85

4­foot medium bipin 2.38 6.65

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.80

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.09 0.18

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.11 0.30

TOTAL 4.34 11.23

4­foot medium bipin 6.59 14.39

8­foot single pin slimline 0.45 1.12

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.30 0.65

TOTAL 10.05 21.95

4­foot medium bipin 5.41 12.58

8­foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.28 2.46

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.22 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.25 0.57

TOTAL 8.58 19.70

11B­2111B.2.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Table 1 1B.27 and Table 11B.28 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector lamps under the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivities. Results are

cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 2007$. In general, the 10 percent lumen increase scenario

reflects lower NPV than the other shipment scenarios, as it incorporates higher­wattage or samewattage lamp designs.

Table 1 1B.27 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, 10% Lumen

Increase (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

1 ­0.76

­ 1.45

2 2.10 4 .24

3 2.98 6 .09

4 5.40 1 1.18

5 6.49 1 3.50

T able 1 1B.28 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen

Increase (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

1 ­0.67

­ 1.29

2 1.18 2 .36

3 1.73 3 .52

4 3.14 6 .46

5 3.74 7 .71

Ta ble 1 1B.29 through and Table 11B.36provide NPV results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector lamps under all eight possible scenarios.

11B­221

2

3

4

5 Table 11B.29 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

0.19 0 .55

3 .47 7 .11

4 .75 9 .85

6 .75 1 3.97

7 .52 1 5.55

T able 1 1B.30 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

1 ­0.06 0 .00

2 1.82 3 .71

3 2.58 5 .30

4 3.72 7 .68

5 4.34 8 .99

T able 1 1B.31 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, No Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

1 ­0.12

­ 0.10

2 3.08 6 .32

3 4.35 9 .02

4 6.21 1 2.91

5 7.12 1 4.84

11B­231

2

3

4

5 Table 11B.32 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll­up, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

0.19 0 .55

3 .16 6 .44

4 .27 8 .79

6 .55 1 3.52

7 .52 1 5.55

T able 1 1B.33 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll­up, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

1 ­0.12

­ 0.10

2 2.77 5 .64

3 3.86 7 .95

4 6.00 1 2.45

5 7.12 1 4.84

T able 1 1B.34 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

1 0.30 0 .73

2 2.24 4 .56

3 3.09 6 .32

4 4.29 8 .78

5 4.78 9 .79

11B­241

2

3

4

5

1

2

3

4

5 Table 11B.35 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

­0.06 0 .00

1 .86 3 .78

2 .65 5 .42

3 .75 7 .73

4 .34 8 .99

T able 1 1B.36 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL N PV

( billion 2007$)

Discounted a t 7% Discounted a t 3%

0.30 0 .73

2 .20 4 .48

3 .02 6 .19

4 .26 8 .73

4 .78 9 .79

11B­25