Notes Notes

Wood stove 7.5 to 4.5 High Low median 2013 dollars High Low median 2013 dollars 

Capital Costs Capital Costs

 R&D/Engineering costs R&D/Engineering costs

Market research, aesthetic design, initial 

prototype design/construction/testing, 

formulate design changes, modify/test 

prototype 45,500 19,000 32,250

Market research, aesthetic design, initial 

prototype design/construction/testing, 

formulate design changes, modify/test 

prototype 91,000 38,000 64,500

adjust design/test until emission target is met 47,500 30,000 38,750 adjust design/test until emission target is met 95,000 60,000 77,500

construct final prototypes, safety test check. 

Eng. Drawings/specs, patent application 27,000 17,000 22,000

construct final prototypes, safety test check. 

Eng. Drawings/specs, patent application 54,000 34,000 44,000

confirm final prototype performance 0 0 0 confirm final prototype performance 0 0 0

 R&D/Engineering Total costs 120,000 66,000 93,000 R&D/Engineering Total costs 240,000 132,000 186,000

 Tooling Tooling

Steel Stove 31,200 9,700 20,450 Steel Stove 31,200 9,700 20,450

Cast Iron Stove 62,000 31,000 46,500 Cast Iron Stove 62,000 31,000 46,500

 Average tooling cost 46,600 20,350 33,475 Average tooling cost 46,600 20,350 33,475

Other Capital Cost components 14,000 6,000 10,000

HPBA costs for equipment and 

integration not included because 

these are considered duplicative 

of R&D costs, above Other Capital Cost components 14,000 6,000 10,000

HPBA costs for equipment and 

integration not included because 

these are considered duplicative 

of R&D costs, above

Total Capital Cost per model 180,600 92,350 136,475 Total Capital Cost per model 300,600 158,350 229,475

Fixed Costs per model Fixed Costs per model

 Certification Certification

EPA testing, Confirmation safety testing or full 

safety testing, shipping of prototype 19,000 14,500 16,750

HBPA costs for personal at lab 

and travel expenses not accepted 

as independent third party 

testing costs

EPA testing, Confirmation safety testing or full 

safety testing, shipping of prototype 19,000 14,500 16,750

HBPA costs for personal at lab 

and travel expenses not 

accepted as independent third 

party testing costs

Owner's manual, labeling 3,500 1,800 2,650 Owner's manual, labeling 3,500 1,800 2,650

 Roll-out 0 0 0

roll-out considered normal 

business operation and not due 

to NSPS Roll-out 0 0 0

roll-out considered normal 

business operation and not due 

to NSPS

Total Fixed Capital Cost per model 22,500 16,300 19,400 Total Fixed Capital Cost per model 22,500 16,300 19,400

Total Costs per Model 203,100 108,650 155,875 Total Costs per Model 323,100 174,650 248,875

Annualized capital cost per model 42,610 22,794 32,702

annualized over 6 years at 7% 

interest (note: NERA annualized 

over 10 years) Annualized capital cost per model 67,785 36,641 52,213

annualized over 6 years at 7% 

interest (note: NERA annualized 

over 10 years)

Annual cost for development of 4 models 170,438 91,177 130,808 Annual cost for development of 4 models 271,140 146,563 208,852

Adjustable Burn Rate Stoves, 

Pellet Stoves & Single Burn Rate 

Stoves

Single Burn Rate Stoves, first 2 

years (doubled R&D / 

Engineering Costs)
Hydronic Heater Uncontrolled to 0.32 High Low median

Capital Costs

 R&D/Engineering costs

Market research, aesthetic design, initial prototype 

design/construction/testing, formulate design changes, 

modify/test prototype 180,000 115,000 147,500

Formulate design changes 4,500 2,500 3,500

Modify prototype 16,000 9,000 12,500

Test/Retest 615,000 410,000 512,500

Construct final prototype, confirm testing, safety testing 133,500 88,500 111,000

Document final changes 8,000 6,000 7,000

 R&D/Engineering total costs 957,000 631,000 794,000

 Manuracturing/Manufacturing Engineering

Programming and Tooling - Steel parts 22,000 13,000 17,500

Tooling - Refractory 45,000 28,000 36,500

Electronic Control System 10,000 5,000 7,500

Final Production samples/Confirm product. Fitup 25,000 15,000 20,000

Create QA/QC specs 4,000 2,000 3,000

 Manuracturing/Manufacturing Engineering total costs 106,000 63,000 84,500

 Other Capital Cost components

Purchased parts sourcing 41,000 23,500 32,250

Test first production heaters 200,000 150,000 175,000

Equipment and facilities 75,000 25,000 50,000

 Other Capital Cost components total costs 316,000 198,500 257,250

Total Capital Cost per model 1,379,000 892,500 1,135,750

Fixed Costs per model

 Certification

Hydronic Heaters & Forced-Air 

Furnaces
EPA testing, Confirmation safety testing or full safety testing, 

shipping of prototype 72,500 36,000 54,250

Owner's manual, labeling 6,500 3,500 5,000

 Certification Total Costs 79,000 39,500 59,250

 Roll-out 0 0 0

Total Fixed Capital Cost per model 79,000 39,500 59,250

Total Costs per Model 1,458,000 932,000 1,195,000

Annualized capital cost per model 305,882 195,530 250,706

Annual cost for development of 4 models 1,223,529 782,119 1,002,824
Notes

2013 dollars High

Capital Costs

 R&D/Engineering costs

Market research, aesthetic design, initial prototype 

design/construction/testing, formulate design 

changes, modify/test prototype 360,000

Formulate design changes 9,000

Modify prototype 32,000

Test/Retest 1,230,000

Construct final prototype, confirm testing, safety 

testing 267,000

Document final changes 16,000

App. A (NERA) concludes erroneously 

$887,000 for high cost and $581,000 

for low cost. R&D/Engineering total costs 1,914,000

 Manuracturing/Manufacturing Engineering

Programming and Tooling - Steel parts 22,000

Tooling - Refractory 45,000

Electronic Control System 10,000

Final Production samples/Confirm product. Fitup 25,000

Create QA/QC specs 4,000

 Manuracturing/Manufacturing Engineering total costs106,000

 Other Capital Cost components

Purchased parts sourcing 41,000

Test first production heaters 200,000

HPBA costs for equipment and 

integration not included because these 

are considered duplicative of R&D 

costs, above Equipment and facilities 75,000

 Other Capital Cost components total costs 316,000

Total Capital Cost per model 2,336,000

Fixed Costs per model

 Certification

Forced air furnaces, First 2 ye

(doubled R&D / Engineerin
HBPA costs for personal at lab and 

travel expenses not accepted as 

independent third party testing costs

EPA testing, Confirmation safety testing or full safety 

testing, shipping of prototype 72,500

Owner's manual, labeling 6,500

 Certification Total Costs 79,000

roll-out considered normal business 

operation and not due to NSPS Roll-out 0

Total Fixed Capital Cost per model 79,000

Total Costs per Model 2,415,000

annualized over 6 years at 7% interest 

(note: NERA annualized over 10 years) Annualized capital cost per model 506,657

Annual cost for development of 4 models 2,026,627
Notes

Low median 2013 dollars

230,000 295,000

5,000 7,000

18,000 25,000

820,000 1,025,000

177,000 222,000

12,000 14,000

1,262,000 1,588,000

App. A (NERA) concludes 

erroneously $887,000 for high 

cost and $581,000 for low cost.

13,000 17,500

28,000 36,500

5,000 7,500

15,000 20,000

2,000 3,000

63,000 84,500

23,500 32,250

150,000 175,000

25,000 50,000

HPBA costs for equipment and 

integration not included because 

these are considered duplicative 

of R&D costs, above

198,500 257,250

1,523,500 1,929,750

Forced air furnaces, First 2 years 

(doubled R&D / Engineering 

costs)
36,000 54,250

HBPA costs for personal at lab 

and travel expenses not accepted 

as independent third party 

testing costs

3,500 5,000

39,500 59,250

0 0

roll-out considered normal 

business operation and not due 

to NSPS

39,500 59,250

1,563,000 1,989,000

327,911 417,284

annualized over 6 years at 7% 

interest (note: NERA annualized 

over 10 years)

1,311,643 1,669,135
Table 9. Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer & Nationwide Annual Costs during R&D re-design (2015-2020) and through model lifespan (2020-2029)

(Step 1 

compliance) 

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Step 2 

compliance) 

2020

2021 through 

20292 

(Step 1 

compliance) 

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Step 2 

compliance) 

2020

2021 through 

20292 

Wood Stoves (R&D)334 125 $88,968 $88,968 $88,968 $88,968 $88,968 $88,968 $0 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $3,024,928 $0

Pellet Stoves (R&D, R&R, cert)4,7 29 125 $51,179 $51,179 $51,179 $53,941 $53,941 $53,941 $14,240 $1,484,192 $1,484,192 $1,484,192 $1,564,285 $1,564,285 $1,564,285 $412,963

Single Burn Rate Stoves (R&D, R&R, cert.)5, 6, 7 3 20 $352,506 $352,506 $352,506 $226,704 $226,704 $226,704 $22,025 $1,057,518 $1,057,518 $1,057,518 $680,112 $680,112 $680,112 $66,074

$5,566,638 $5,566,638 $5,566,638 $5,269,325 $5,269,325 $5,269,325 $479,037

Forced Air Furnaces (R&D, R&R, cert.)5, 6, 7 7 50 $2,986,523 $2,986,523 $1,796,681 $1,799,034 $1,799,034 $1,799,034 $36,849 $20,905,663 $20,905,663 $12,576,770 $12,593,240 $12,593,240 $12,593,240 $257,941

Hydronic Heaters (R&D, R&R, cert.)7,830 120 $828,513 $828,513 $828,513 $829,831 $829,831 $829,831 $20,635 $24,855,398 $24,855,398 $24,855,398 $24,894,927 $24,894,927 $24,894,927 $619,059

$45,761,061 $45,761,061 $37,432,168 $37,488,168 $37,488,168 $37,488,168 $877,000

Period

Nationwide Cost of 

the Rule

$51,327,699 $51,327,699 $42,998,805 $42,757,493 $42,757,493 $42,757,493 $1,356,037

R&D year average (2015-

2020) $45,654,447

Post R&D year average 

(2021-2029) $1,356,037

Subpart: Years Annual $

AAA: 2015-2017 Laboratories $55,000

Third-Party Certifiers $16,000

AAA: 2018-2020 Laboratories $73,000

Third-Party Certifiers $9,000

QQQQ: 2015-2017 Laboratories $36,000

Third-Party Certifiers $15,000

QQQQ: 2018-2020 Laboratories $49,000

Third-Party Certifiers $5,000

Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer based on 6-year R&D round (2015-2020) to meet Step 1 and Step 2 

limits with ongoing certification costs (through 2029)

# Manufacturers # Models

Nationwide Annual Costs1

QQQQ: Central Heaters

AAA: Room Heaters

NSPS Subpart Appliance Type

* Reporting and Recordkeeping (R&R) costs for laboratories and certifying entities are not included in this cost analysis but are estimated as follows: 

1 Nationwide Annual Cost assumes R&D investment is amortized over 6 years (2015 through 2020). Ongoing certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs are incurred through 2029 (based on a model brought to market in 2020 with a lifespan of 10 years).

Annual Cost of the Rule

6

 For single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces, the analysis assumes that only a small percentage meet Step 2 so that approximately 100% of the models undergo R&D re-design to meet Step 2. The R&D budget includes certification costs. Ongoing certification costs for the re-designed models are reflected in this analysis beginning 

in 2021. Ongoing reporting & recordkeeping for all models are estimated beginning in 2015.

5

Based on conversations with industry (e.g., 2/8/13), single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces have been undergoing R&D prior to 2014 to develop cleaner models. Because these devices were previously unregulated and may need to transfer technology from adjustable burn rate stoves and hydronic heaters (respectively) this 

analysis assumes that these efforts will intensify in 2015 and 2016. Therefore estimated R&D costs are doubled in 2015 and 2016 to reflect model development to meet the more stringent 2020 Step 2 standard. The R&D budget includes certification costs. Ongoing certification costs for the re-designed models are reflected in this analysis 

beginning in 2021. Ongoing reporting & recordkeeping for all models are estimated beginning in 2015.

4

For pellet stoves, the analysis assumes that 70% meet Step 2 already so that 30% of models undergo R&D re-design to meet Step 2. The R&D budget includes certification costs. The analysis also assumes that the 70% of the pellet stove models which already meet Step 2 will certify in an ongoing basis starting in 2015. The analysis 

reflects the certification costs beginning in 2015 for the 70% of models meeting Step 2, and beginning in 2020 for the remaining 30% of models which underwent R&D re-design. The analysis also reflects ongoing reporting & recordkeeping costs for 100% of the models beginning in 2015.

3

 This analysis considers additional costs resulting from the NSPS. For wood stoves, the analysis assumes that 26% meet Step 2 already so that 74% of the models will undergo re-design to meet the Step 2 level. The costs modeled for years 2021 through 2029 exclude the ongoing certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs incurred 

by wood stove manufacturers who already had to certify and report under the existing 1988 NSPS.

2

 Since certification is required every 5 years , it is assumed that certification costs will be spread out so that 1/5 of the models certify each year.

7

 Reporting and recordkeeping costs (R&R) are based on the annual average costs derived from the ICR and are estimates of the ongoing R&R burden to manufacturers associated with the NSPS. The annual average nationwide R&R burden estimated to manufacturers for Subpart AAA is approximately $179,000 for years 2015 through 

2017 and $352,000 for years 2018 through 2020. For Subpart QQQQ, the R&R burden to manufacturers is estimated to be $141,000 for years 2015 through 2017 and $197,00 for years 2018 through 2020. Although the 2018 through 2020 costs are carried forward to 2029 for this analysis, actual R&R costs from 2021 through 2029 may 

vary slightly. These R&R costs do not include the R&R burden to laboratories and certifying entities, which are calculated separately and provided below.*

8 For hydronic heaters, the analysis assumes that 18% of models meet Step 2 already so that 82% must undergo R&D to meet Step 2 in 2020. The R&D budget includes certification costs. Ongoing certification costs for the re-designed models are reflected in this analysis beginning in 2021. Ongoing reporting & recordkeeping for all models 

are estimated beginning in 2015.
SCC

Appliance 

Population

Total Tons 

Burned Emission Inventory Category Pollutant

Baseline 

Emission 

factor 

(lb/ton)

Baseline 

Emissions 

(tons)

Baseline 

Tons/appl

2015 Step 

1 

Emission 

Factor

2104008220 1,303,142 1,226,184

Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA 

certified; non-catalytic Primary PM2.5 8.76 5,371 0.0041 8.76

2104008230 427,224 416,187

Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA 

certified; catalytic Primary PM2.5 9.72 2,023 0.0047 9.72

2104008320 873,357 1,540,026

Woodstove: freestanding, EPA 

certified, non-catalytic Primary PM2.5 8.76 6,745 0.0077 8.76

2104008330 374,154 775,602

Woodstove: freestanding, EPA 

certified, catalytic Primary PM2.5 9.72 3,769 0.0101 9.72

2104008400 846,931 1,175,337 Woodstove: pellet-fired, general Primary PM2.5 3.06 1,798 0.0021 3.06

2,206,470 4,668,250 Single Burn Rate Stoves Primary PM2.5 30.6 71,424 0.0324 8.76

2104008610 364,560 3,654,153 Hydronic heater: outdoor Primary PM2.5 64 116,933 0.3208 6.4

2104008510 351,023 2,624,115 Furnace: indoor, cordwood Primary PM2.5 64 83,972 0.2392 16

0.0060 Baseline woodstove weighted average (Tons/appl)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Wood Stoves 126,527 80,851 77,617 79,169 80,752 82,367 84,015 85,695 87,409

Single Burn Rate 

Stoves 40,000 25,560 24,538 25,028 25,529 26,039 26,560 27,091 27,633

Pellet Stoves 130,381 83,313 79,981 81,581 83,212 84,876 86,574 88,305 90,072

Furnace: indoor, 

cordwood 41,000 26,199 25,151 25,654 26,167 26,690 27,224 27,769 28,324

Hydronic Heating 

Systems 13,385 8,553 8,211 8,375 13,100 13,362 13,629 13,902 14,180

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Wood Stoves 563 360 345 352 359 367 374 381 389

Single Burn Rate 

Stoves 1,295 827 794 810 826 843 860 877 895

Pellet Stoves 83 53 51 52 53 54 55 56 57

Furnace: indoor, 

cordwood 9,808 6,267 6,017 6,137 6,260 6,385 6,513 6,643 6,776

Hydronic Heating 

Systems 3,520 2,250 2,160 2,203 3,446 3,514 3,585 3,656 3,730

Total 15,269 9,757 9,367 9,554 10,944 11,163 11,386 11,614 11,846

Table 4. Estimated Annual Shipped Units

Table 5. Estimated PM 2.5 Emissions (Tons) -- Baseline*
Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

CE based on 

nationwide 

average annual 

cost (per ton)

Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

2015 4$3,024,928 $1,209,971 381 381 0 N/A 381 381 0

2016 $3,024,928 $1,209,971 389 389 0 N/A 770 770 0

2017 $3,024,928 $1,209,971 397 397 0 N/A 1,167 1,167 0

2018 $3,024,928 $1,209,971 445 445 0 N/A 1,612 1,612 0

2019 $3,024,928 $1,209,971 454 454 0 N/A 2,066 2,066 0

2020 4$3,024,928 $1,209,971 463 259 204 $5,932 2,529 2,325 204

2021 $0 $1,209,971 472 264 208 $5,816 3,001 2,589 412

2022 $0 $1,209,971 482 269 212 $5,702 3,483 2,859 624

2023 $0 $1,209,971 491 275 216 $5,590 3,974 3,134 841

2024 $0 $1,209,971 501 280 221 $5,480 4,475 3,414 1,061

2025 $0 $1,209,971 511 286 225 $5,373 4,987 3,700 1,287

2026 $0 $1,209,971 521 292 230 $5,267 5,508 3,992 1,516

2027 $0 $1,209,971 532 298 234 $5,164 6,040 4,289 1,751

2028 $0 $1,209,971 542 303 239 $5,063 6,582 4,593 1,990

2029 $0 $1,209,971 553 310 244 $4,964 7,136 4,902 2,233

2030 7,136 4,902 2,233

2031 7,136 4,902 2,233

2032 7,136 4,902 2,233

2033 7,136 4,902 2,233

2034 7,136 4,902 2,233

2035 6,754 4,521 2,233

2036 6,365 4,132 2,233

2037 5,969 3,735 2,233

2038 5,524 3,290 2,233

2039 5,070 2,836 2,233

2040 4,607 2,577 2,029

2041 4,134 2,313 1,821

2042 3,653 2,043 1,609

2043 3,161 1,769 1,393

2044 2,660 1,488 1,172

2045 2,149 1,202 947

2046 1,628 911 717

2047 1,096 613 483

2048 553 310 244

$18,149,566 34,983 $519

3

 These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus wood stoves shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

4

 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020. For woodstoves, estimates assume that most models already meet the Step 1 limit 

and that manufacturers will certify and sell existing models meeting Step 1 standard during 2015 through 2019. Therefore no emission reductions are estimated until Step 2 in 2020.

5

 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS assuming a 10-year model life. 

Cumulative Emission Reduction 

Nationwide cumulative cost over 20-year emitting lifespan 5 

 Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Wood Stoves

Year 3

Nationwide 

Annual Cost1 

Nationwide 

Average 

Annual Cost 

Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year

CE based on total 

cost & cumulative 

emission reduction 

over 20-year emitting 

lifespan (per ton)

1

 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020 ). Years 2030 through 2048 are past 

the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

 Except for an adjustment in year 2018 based on an industry projection (NERA), estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) 

of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; 

see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm). 
Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

CE based on 

nationwide 

average annual 

cost (per ton)

Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

Emission 

Reduction (tons)6

2015 4$1,484,192 $857,473 56 56 0 N/A 56 56 0

2016 $1,484,192 $857,473 57 57 0 N/A 114 114 0

2017 $1,484,192 $857,473 59 59 0 N/A 172 172 0

2018 $1,564,285 $857,473 60 60 0 N/A 232 232 0

2019 $1,564,285 $857,473 61 61 0 N/A 293 293 0

2020 4$1,564,285 $857,473 62 28 35 $24,853 355 320 35

2021 $412,963 $857,473 63 28 35 $24,366 418 348 70

2022 $412,963 $857,473 65 29 36 $23,888 483 377 106

2023 $412,963 $857,473 66 29 37 $23,419 549 406 142

2024 $412,963 $857,473 67 30 37 $22,960 616 436 180

2025 $412,963 $857,473 69 30 38 $22,510 684 467 218

2026 $412,963 $857,473 70 31 39 $22,069 754 498 256

2027 $412,963 $857,473 71 32 40 $21,636 826 530 296

2028 $412,963 $857,473 73 32 40 $21,212 899 562 337

2029 $412,963 $857,473 74 33 41 $20,796 973 595 378

2030 973 595 378

2031 973 595 378

2032 973 595 378

2033 973 595 378

2034 973 595 378

2035 916 539 378

2036 859 481 378

2037 801 423 378

2038 741 363 378

2039 680 302 378

2040 618 275 343

2041 555 246 308

2042 490 218 272

2043 424 188 236

2044 357 159 198

2045 288 128 160

2046 218 97 121

2047 147 65 82

2048 74 33 41

$12,862,099 5,917 $2,174

4

 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020. For pellet stoves, estimates assume that most models already meet the Step 1 limit and 

that manufacturers will certify and sell existing models meeting Step 1 standard during 2015 through 2019. Therefore no emission reductions are estimated until Step 2 in 2020.

5

 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping 

costs to bring these stoves to market from 2015 through 2029. 

CE based on total 

cost & cumulative 

emission reduction 

over 20-year emitting 

lifespan (per ton)

Nationwide cumulative cost5 

Cumulative Emission Reduction 

over 20-year stove lifespan 

6 In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount pellet stoves already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 70% of pellet stoves already meet the 

Step 2 limit).

Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Pellet Stoves

1

 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting 

& recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years 2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

 Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real 

GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm). 

3

 These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus pellet stoves shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

Year 3

Nationwide 

Annual Cost1 

Nationwide 

Average 

Annual Cost 

Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year
Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)

CE based on 

nationwide 

average annual 

cost (per ton)

Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

Emission 

Reduction (tons)

2015 4$1,057,518 $387,171 877 251 626 $619 877 251 626

2016 $1,057,518 $387,171 895 256 638 $606 1,771 507 1,264

2017 $1,057,518 $387,171 912 261 651 $595 2,684 768 1,916

2018 $680,112 $387,171 931 266 664 $583 3,614 1,035 2,580

2019 $680,112 $387,171 949 272 678 $571 4,564 1,306 3,257

2020 4$680,112 $387,171 968 123 845 $458 5,532 1,430 4,102

2021 $66,074 $387,171 988 126 862 $449 6,520 1,555 4,964

2022 $66,074 $387,171 1,007 128 879 $440 7,527 1,683 5,843

2023 $66,074 $387,171 1,027 131 897 $432 8,554 1,814 6,740

2024 $66,074 $387,171 1,048 133 915 $423 9,602 1,948 7,655

2025 $66,074 $387,171 1,069 136 933 $415 10,671 2,084 8,588

2026 $66,074 $387,171 1,090 139 952 $407 11,762 2,222 9,540

2027 $66,074 $387,171 1,112 142 971 $399 12,874 2,364 10,510

2028 $66,074 $387,171 1,134 144 990 $391 14,009 2,508 11,500

2029 $66,074 $387,171 1,157 147 1,010 $383 15,166 2,655 12,510

2030 15,166 2,655 12,510

2031 15,166 2,655 12,510

2032 15,166 2,655 12,510

2033 15,166 2,655 12,510

2034 15,166 2,655 12,510

2035 14,289 2,404 11,884

2036 13,394 2,148 11,246

2037 12,482 1,887 10,595

2038 11,551 1,621 9,931

2039 10,602 1,349 9,253

2040 9,634 1,226 8,408

2041 8,646 1,100 7,546

2042 7,639 972 6,667

2043 6,611 841 5,770

2044 5,563 708 4,855

2045 4,494 572 3,922

2046 3,404 433 2,971

2047 2,292 292 2,000

2048 1,157 147 1,010

$5,807,558 171,119 $34

4

 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020. 

5

 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs 

to bring these stoves to market from 2015 through 2029. 

CE based on total cost 

& cumulative 

emission reduction 

over 20-year emitting 

lifespan (per ton)

Nationwide cumulative cost5 

Cumulative Emission Reduction 

over 20-year emitting lifespan 

Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Single Burn Rate Stoves

1

 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting & 

recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years 2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

 Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real 

GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm). 

3

 These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus single burn rate stoves shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

Year 3

Nationwide 

Annual Cost1 

Nationwide 

Average 

Annual Cost 

Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year
Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

CE based on 

nationwide 

average annual 

cost (per ton)

Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions 

(tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions 

(tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

2015 4$5,566,638 $2,454,615 1,315 689 626 $3,922 1,315 689 626

2016 $5,566,638 $2,454,615 1,341 702 638 $3,845 2,655 1,391 1,264

2017 $5,566,638 $2,454,615 1,368 716 651 $3,769 4,023 2,108 1,916

2018 $5,269,325 $2,454,615 1,435 771 664 $3,695 5,458 2,879 2,580

2019 $5,269,325 $2,454,615 1,464 787 678 $3,623 6,922 3,665 3,257

2020 4$5,269,325 $2,454,615 1,493 410 1,084 $2,265 8,416 4,075 4,341

2021 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,523 418 1,105 $2,221 9,939 4,493 5,446

2022 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,554 426 1,127 $2,177 11,493 4,919 6,573

2023 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,585 435 1,150 $2,135 13,077 5,354 7,723

2024 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,616 444 1,173 $2,093 14,694 5,798 8,896

2025 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,649 452 1,196 $2,052 16,343 6,250 10,092

2026 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,682 462 1,220 $2,012 18,024 6,712 11,312

2027 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,715 471 1,245 $1,972 19,740 7,183 12,557

2028 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,750 480 1,270 $1,934 21,489 7,663 13,827

2029 $479,037 $2,454,615 1,785 490 1,295 $1,896 23,274 8,153 15,122

2030 23,274 8,153 15,122

2031 23,274 8,153 15,122

2032 23,274 8,153 15,122

2033 23,274 8,153 15,122

2034 23,274 8,153 15,122

2035 21,960 7,464 14,496

2036 20,619 6,761 13,857

2037 19,251 6,045 13,206

2038 17,816 5,274 12,542

2039 16,352 4,487 11,864

2040 14,858 4,078 10,781

2041 13,335 3,660 9,676

2042 11,781 3,233 8,548

2043 10,197 2,798 7,398

2044 8,580 2,355 6,226

2045 6,931 1,902 5,029

2046 5,250 1,441 3,809

2047 3,534 970 2,564

2048 1,785 490 1,295

$36,819,222 212,020 $174

Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Room Heaters (Wood Stoves, Pellet Stoves, and Single Burn Rate Stoves)

Nationwide cumulative cost5 

5

 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & 

recordkeeping costs to bring these stoves to market from 2015 through 2029. 

Year 3

Nationwide 

Annual Cost1 

Nationwide 

Average 

Annual Cost 

1

 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and 

reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years 2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

 Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth 

in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm). 

4

 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020. In order to not overestimate emission reductions resulting from the rule, for 

woodstoves and pellet stoves, estimates assume that most models already meet the Step 1 limit and that manufacturers will certify and sell existing models meeting Step 1 standard 

from 2015 through 2019. Therefore no emission reductions are estimated to result from woodstoves and pellet stoves until Step 2 in 2020. 

6 In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount room heaters already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 26% of wood stoves and 70% of 

pellet stoves are estimated to already meet the Step 2 limit).

CE based on total 

cost & cumulative 

emission reduction 

over 20-year 

emitting lifespan 

(per ton)

3

 These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus room heaters shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

Cumulative Emission Reduction 

over 20-year emitting lifespan 

Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year
Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions2 (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)

CE based on 

nationwide 

average annual 

cost (per ton)

Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)

2015 4$20,905,663 $6,299,286 6,643 6,643 0 N/A 6,643 6,643 0

2016 4$20,905,663 $6,299,286 6,776 5,505 1,270 $4,958 13,419 12,148 1,270

2017 4$12,576,770 $6,299,286 6,911 1,728 5,183 $1,215 20,330 13,876 6,454

2018 $12,593,240 $6,299,286 7,049 1,762 5,287 $1,191 27,379 15,638 11,741

2019 $12,593,240 $6,299,286 7,190 1,798 5,393 $1,168 34,570 17,436 17,134

2020 4$12,593,240 $6,299,286 7,334 229 7,105 $887 41,904 17,665 24,239

2021 $257,941 $6,299,286 7,481 234 7,247 $869 49,385 17,899 31,486

2022 $257,941 $6,299,286 7,631 238 7,392 $852 57,015 18,137 38,878

2023 $257,941 $6,299,286 7,783 243 7,540 $835 64,798 18,381 46,418

2024 $257,941 $6,299,286 7,939 248 7,691 $819 72,737 18,629 54,109

2025 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,098 253 7,845 $803 80,835 18,882 61,953

2026 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,260 258 8,001 $787 89,094 19,140 69,955

2027 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,425 263 8,161 $772 97,519 19,403 78,116

2028 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,593 269 8,325 $757 106,112 19,672 86,441

2029 $257,941 $6,299,286 8,765 274 8,491 $742 114,877 19,945 94,932

2030 114,877 19,945 94,932

2031 114,877 19,945 94,932

2032 114,877 19,945 94,932

2033 114,877 19,945 94,932

2034 114,877 19,945 94,932

2035 108,235 13,303 94,932

2036 101,459 7,797 93,662

2037 94,548 6,070 88,478

2038 87,498 4,307 83,191

2039 80,308 2,510 77,798

2040 72,974 2,280 70,693

2041 65,493 2,047 63,446

2042 57,862 1,808 56,054

2043 50,079 1,565 48,514

2044 42,140 1,317 40,823

2045 34,043 1,064 32,979

2046 25,783 806 24,977

2047 17,358 542 16,816

2048 8,765 274 8,491

$94,489,287 1,370,447 $69

4

 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020 for all appliances, except forced-air furnaces have work practice/operational standards 

in 2015, Step 1 emission limits for small furnaces in 2016, Step 1 emission limits for large furnaces in 2017 and Step 2 emission limits for all furnaces in 2020. 

5

 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping 

costs to bring these heaters to market from 2014 through 2029. 

CE based on total cost 

& cumulative emission 

reduction over 20-year 

emitting lifespan (per 

ton)

Nationwide cumulative cost5 

Cumulative Emission Reduction 

over 20-year emitting lifespan 

Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Forced Air Furnaces

1

 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting 

& recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years 2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

 Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in 

real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm). 

3

 These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus forced-air furnaces shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

Year 3

Nationwide 

Annual Cost1 

Nationwide 

Average Annual 

Cost 

Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year
Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions2 (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

CE based on 

nationwide 

average annual 

cost (per ton)

Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

2015 4$24,855,398 $10,321,500.34 3,656 366 3,291 $3,137 3,656 366 3,291

2016 $24,855,398 $10,321,500.34 3,730 373 3,357 $3,075 7,386 739 6,647

2017 $24,855,398 $10,321,500.34 3,804 380 3,424 $3,015 11,190 1,119 10,071

2018 $24,894,927 $10,321,500.34 3,880 388 3,492 $2,956 15,070 1,507 13,563

2019 $24,894,927 $10,321,500.34 3,958 396 3,562 $2,898 19,028 1,903 17,125

2020 4$24,894,927 $10,321,500.34 4,037 126 3,911 $2,639 23,065 2,029 21,036

2021 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,118 129 3,989 $2,587 27,183 2,158 25,025

2022 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,200 131 4,069 $2,537 31,383 2,289 29,094

2023 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,284 134 4,150 $2,487 35,667 2,423 33,244

2024 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,370 137 4,233 $2,438 40,037 2,559 37,477

2025 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,457 139 4,318 $2,390 44,494 2,699 41,795

2026 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,546 142 4,404 $2,344 49,040 2,841 46,199

2027 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,637 145 4,492 $2,298 53,677 2,986 50,692

2028 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,730 148 4,582 $2,253 58,407 3,133 55,274

2029 $619,059 $10,321,500.34 4,825 151 4,674 $2,208 63,232 3,284 59,947

2030 63,232 3,284 59,947

2031 63,232 3,284 59,947

2032 63,232 3,284 59,947

2033 63,232 3,284 59,947

2034 63,232 3,284 59,947

2035 59,575 2,919 56,657

2036 55,846 2,546 53,300

2037 52,042 2,165 49,876

2038 48,161 1,777 46,384

2039 44,204 1,381 42,822

2040 40,167 1,255 38,911

2041 36,049 1,127 34,922

2042 31,849 995 30,854

2043 27,565 861 26,703

2044 23,195 725 22,470

2045 18,738 586 18,152

2046 14,192 443 13,748

2047 3

9,554 299 9,256

2048 3

4,825 151 4,674

$154,822,505 808,415 $192

4

 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020. 

5

 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping 

costs to bring these heaters to market from 2014 through 2029. 

CE based on total cost 

& cumulative 

emission reduction 

over 20-year emitting 

lifespan (per ton)

Nationwide cumulative cost5 

Cumulative Emission Reduction 

over 20-year emitting lifespan 

6 In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount hydronic heaters already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 18% of hydronic heaters are 

estimated to already meet the Step 2 limit).

Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Hydronic Heating Systems

1

 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting 

& recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years 2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

 Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real 

GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm). 

3

 These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus hydronic heaters shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

Year

Nationwide 

Annual Cost1 

Nationwide 

Average Annual 

Cost 

Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year
Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions2 (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

CE based on 

nationwide 

average annual 

cost (per ton)

Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

2015 4$45,761,061 $16,620,786 10,299 7,008 3,291 $5,051 10,299 7,008 3,291

2016 4$45,761,061 $16,620,786 10,505 5,878 4,627 $3,592 20,804 12,887 7,918

2017 4$37,432,168 $16,620,786 10,715 2,108 8,607 $1,931 31,520 14,995 16,525

2018 $37,488,168 $16,620,786 10,930 2,150 8,779 $1,893 42,449 17,145 25,304

2019 $37,488,168 $16,620,786 11,148 2,193 8,955 $1,856 53,598 19,339 34,259

2020 4$37,488,168 $16,620,786 11,371 355 11,016 $1,509 64,969 19,694 45,275

2021 $877,000 $16,620,786 11,599 362 11,236 $1,479 76,567 20,056 56,511

2022 $877,000 $16,620,786 11,831 370 11,461 $1,450 88,398 20,426 67,972

2023 $877,000 $16,620,786 12,067 377 11,690 $1,422 100,465 20,803 79,662

2024 $877,000 $16,620,786 12,309 385 11,924 $1,394 112,774 21,188 91,586

2025 $877,000 $16,620,786 12,555 392 12,162 $1,367 125,329 21,580 103,748

2026 $877,000 $16,620,786 12,806 400 12,406 $1,340 138,134 21,980 116,154

2027 $877,000 $16,620,786 13,062 408 12,654 $1,314 151,196 22,389 128,808

2028 $877,000 $16,620,786 13,323 416 12,907 $1,288 164,519 22,805 141,714

2029 $877,000 $16,620,786 13,590 425 13,165 $1,263 178,109 23,230 154,879

2030 178,109 23,230 154,879

2031 178,109 23,230 154,879

2032 178,109 23,230 154,879

2033 178,109 23,230 154,879

2034 178,109 23,230 154,879

2035 167,810 16,221 151,589

2036 157,305 10,343 146,962

2037 146,589 8,235 138,355

2038 135,660 6,084 129,575

2039 124,511 3,891 120,620

2040 113,140 3,536 109,605

2041 101,542 3,173 98,368

2042 89,711 2,803 86,908

2043 77,644 2,426 75,217

2044 65,335 2,042 63,294

2045 52,781 1,649 51,131

2046 39,975 1,249 38,726

2047 3

26,913 841 26,072

2048 3

13,590 425 13,165

$249,311,792 2,178,862 $114

Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Central Heaters (Forced Air Furnaces and Hydronic Heating Systems)

5

 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & recordkeeping 

costs to bring these heaters to market from 2014 through 2029. 

1

 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and reporting 

& recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years 2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

 Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in 

real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm). 

3

 These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus models shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048. 

4

 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020 for all appliances, except forced-air furnaces have work practice/operational standards 

in 2015, Step 1 emission limits for small furnaces in 2016, Step 1 emission limits for large furnaces in 2017 and Step 2 emission limits for all furnaces in 2020. 

CE based on total 

cost & cumulative 

emission reduction 

over 20-year emitting 

Year lifespan (per ton) 3

Nationwide 

Annual Cost1 

Nationwide 

Average Annual 

Cost 

Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year

6 In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount central heaters already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 18% of hydronic heaters are 

estimated to already meet the Step 2 limit).

Nationwide cumulative cost5 

Cumulative Emission Reduction 

over 20-year emitting lifespan 
Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions2 

(tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

CE based on 

nationwide 

average annual 

cost (per ton)

Baseline PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

NSPS PM2.5 

Emissions (tons)

Emission 

Reduction 

(tons)6

2015 4$51,327,699 $19,075,401 11,614 7,697 3,917 $4,870 11,614 7,697 3,917

2016 4$51,327,699 $19,075,401 11,846 6,581 5,265 $3,623 23,460 14,278 9,182

2017 4$42,998,805 $19,075,401 12,083 2,825 9,258 $2,060 35,543 17,102 18,440

2018 $42,757,493 $19,075,401 12,365 2,922 9,443 $2,020 47,908 20,024 27,884

2019 $42,757,493 $19,075,401 12,612 2,980 9,632 $1,980 60,520 23,004 37,516

2020 4$42,757,493 $19,075,401 12,865 765 12,099 $1,577 73,385 23,769 49,616

2021 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 13,122 780 12,341 $1,546 86,507 24,550 61,957

2022 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 13,384 796 12,588 $1,515 99,891 25,346 74,545

2023 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 13,652 812 12,840 $1,486 113,543 26,158 87,385

2024 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 13,925 828 13,097 $1,456 127,468 26,986 100,482

2025 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 14,203 845 13,359 $1,428 141,671 27,831 113,841

2026 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 14,488 862 13,626 $1,400 156,159 28,692 127,466

2027 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 14,777 879 13,898 $1,372 170,936 29,571 141,365

2028 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 15,073 897 14,176 $1,346 186,009 30,468 155,541

2029 $1,356,037 $19,075,401 15,374 914 14,460 $1,319 201,383 31,382 170,001

2030 201,383 31,382 170,001

2031 201,383 31,382 170,001

2032 201,383 31,382 170,001

2033 201,383 31,382 170,001

2034 201,383 31,382 170,001

2035 189,769 23,685 166,084

2036 177,923 17,104 160,819

2037 165,840 14,280 151,561

2038 153,475 11,358 142,117

2039 140,863 8,378 132,485

2040 127,998 7,613 120,385

2041 114,877 6,833 108,044

2042 101,492 6,037 95,456

2043 87,840 5,225 82,616

2044 73,915 4,396 69,519

2045 59,712 3,552 56,160

2046 45,224 2,690 42,535

2047 3 30,447 1,811 28,636

2048 315,374 914 14,460

$286,131,014 2,390,882 $120

Nationwide 

Average 

Annual Cost 

Annual Snapshots

1

 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020), plus annual certification and 

reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, representing a 10 year model life). Years 2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2

 Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in 

real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm). 

3

 These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus models shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048. 

4

 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020 for all appliances, except forced-air furnaces have work practice/operational 

standards in 2015, Step 1 emission limits for small furnaces in 2016, Step 1 emission limits for large furnaces in 2017 and Step 2 emission limits for all furnaces in 2020. 

6 In order to not overstate emission reductions caused by the NSPS, emissions are reduced to discount room heaters and central heaters already meeting the Step 2 limit (i.e., 26% of wood 

stoves, 70% of pellet stoves and 18% of hydronic heaters are estimated to already meet the Step 2 limit).

Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Central Heaters (Forced Air Furnaces and Hydronic Heating Systems) and Room Heaters (Wood Stoves, 

Pellet Stoves, and Single Burn Rate Stoves)

CE based on total 

cost & cumulative 

emission reduction 

over 20-year 

emitting lifespan (per 

ton)

Emission Reduction, cumulative per year

Nationwide cumulative cost5 

Cumulative Emission Reduction 

over 20-year emitting lifespan 

5

 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification and reporting & 

recordkeeping costs to bring these heaters to market from 2014 through 2029. 

Year 3

Nationwide 

Annual Cost1