APPENDIX 11B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACT

ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

11B.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................11B­1

11B.2 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................11B­1

11B.2.1 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ..............................................................11B­1

11B.2.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................... 11B­1

11B.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................... 11B­10

11B.2.2 NET PRESENT VALUE............................................................................11B­13

11B.2.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................. 11B­13

11B.2.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.......................................................... 11B­22

LIST OF TABLES

Table 11B.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­2

Table 11B.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­3

Table 11B.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Existing, Roll­up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­4

Table 11B.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Existing, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­5

Table 11B.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Existing, Shift, Market Segment­Based Lighting

Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads) ...................................................11B­6

Table 11B.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Emerging, Roll­up, High Lighting Expertise

Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................11B­7

Table 11B.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­8

Table 11B.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent

Lamps Under the Emerging, Shift, Market Segment­Based Scenario

(2012­2042) (quads)...................................................................................11B­9

Table 11B.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)...............................11B­10

Table 11B.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, 10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012­2042) (quads).......11B­10

11B­i

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing

Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­11

Table 11B.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­11

Table 11B.13 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing

Technologies, Shift, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­11

Table 11B.14 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing

Technologies, Roll­up, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­11

Table 11B.15 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing

Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­12

Table 11B.16 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­12

Table 11B.17 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, Shift, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­12

Table 11B.18 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging

Technologies, Roll­up, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)......................................................................................................11B­12

Table 11B.19 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(billion 2007$) .........................................................................................11B­14

Table 11B.20 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based

Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$) .....................................11B­15

Table 11B.21 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Existing Technologies, Roll­up, High Expertise Scenario (2012­

2042) (billion 2007$)...............................................................................11B­16

Table 11B.22 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Existing Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Expertise

Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$) .....................................................11B­17

Table 11B.23 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Existing Technologies, Shift, Market Segment­Based Lighting

Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$) .....................................11B­18

Table 11B.24 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, High Expertise Scenario (2012­

2042) (billion 2007$)...............................................................................11B­19

Table 11B.25 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Emerging Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012­

2042) (billion 2007$)...............................................................................11B­20

11B­ii

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.26 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under

the Emerging Technologies, Shift, Market Segment­Based Expertise

Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$) .....................................................11B­21

Table 11B.27 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, 10% Lumen

Increase (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)......................................................11B­22

Table 11B.28 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen

Increase (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)......................................................11B­22

Table 11B.29 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)................................................11B­23

Table 11B.30 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­23

Table 11B.31 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­23

Table 11B.32 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll­up,

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­24

Table 11B.33 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll­up, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­24

Table 11B.34 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)................................................11B­24

Table 11B.35 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­25

Table 11B.36 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll­up,

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)...................................11B­25

11B­iii

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
APPENDIX 11B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACTS

ANALYSIS

11B.1 INTRODUCTION

In this appendix, DOE presents the national energy savings (NES) and net present value

(NPV) results for an additional incandescent reflector lamp (IRL) sensitivity scenario: the 10

percent lumen increase sensitivity. DOE also presents the NES and NPV results for all eight

possible shipments scenarios for general service fluorescent lamps (GSFL) and IRL.

11B.2 RESULTS

11B.2.1 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

11B.2.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Table 11B.1 through Table 11B.8 provide NES results for each trial standard level (TSL)

considered for general service fluorescent lamps under all eight possible scenarios. Results are

cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads.

11B­1

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class

NES

(Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 1.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10

8­foot recessed double contact high output (HO) 0.18

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin standard output (SO) 0.76

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.77

4­foot medium bipin 1.57

8­foot single pin slimline 0.13

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.24

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.76

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.90

4­foot medium bipin 4.76

8­foot single pin slimline 0.18

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.25

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.76

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.22

TOTAL 7.33

4­foot medium bipin 8.23

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.76

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.37

TOTAL 11.64

4­foot medium bipin 9.53

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.72

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.91

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.43

TOTAL 13.17

11B­2

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Emerging, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class

NES

(Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 0.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.08

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.02

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.12

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.02

TOTAL 1.32

4­foot medium bipin 0.60

8­foot single pin slimline 0.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.12

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.03

TOTAL 1.70

4­foot medium bipin 1.99

8­foot single pin slimline 0.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.12

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.09

TOTAL 3.24

4­foot medium bipin 2.70

8­foot single pin slimline 0.23

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.12

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.12

TOTAL 4.49

4­foot medium bipin 3.72

8­foot single pin slimline 0.25

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.67

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.17

TOTAL 5.75

11B­3

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Existing, Roll­up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class

NES

(Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 1.27

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.11

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.06

TOTAL 2.73

4­foot medium bipin 1.53

8­foot single pin slimline 0.12

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.09

4­foot medium bipin 3.32

8­foot single pin slimline 0.18

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.15

TOTAL 5.04

4­foot medium bipin 5.35

8­foot single pin slimline 0.29

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.24

TOTAL 7.77

4­foot medium bipin 9.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.72

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.78

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.43

TOTAL 12.66

11B­4

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Existing, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class

NES

(Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 0.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.08

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.02

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.15

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.02

TOTAL 1.35

4­foot medium bipin 0.60

8­foot single pin slimline 0.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.15

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.03

TOTAL 1.73

4­foot medium bipin 2.15

8­foot single pin slimline 0.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.20

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.15

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.10

TOTAL 3.44

4­foot medium bipin 2.97

8­foot single pin slimline 0.23

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.15

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.13

TOTAL 4.80

4­foot medium bipin 4.28

8­foot single pin slimline 0.25

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.67

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.36

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.65

2­foot U­shaped 0.19

TOTAL 6.40

11B­5

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Existing, Shift, Market Segment­Based Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(quads)

TSL Product Class

NES

(Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 0.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.08

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.04

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.02

TOTAL 1.74

4­foot medium bipin 0.60

8­foot single pin slimline 0.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.21

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.03

TOTAL 2.12

4­foot medium bipin 2.56

8­foot single pin slimline 0.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.22

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.12

TOTAL 4.28

4­foot medium bipin 3.78

8­foot single pin slimline 0.26

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.37

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.17

TOTAL 6.06

4­foot medium bipin 4.28

8­foot single pin slimline 0.26

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.67

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.42

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.19

TOTAL 6.62

11B­6

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Emerging, Roll­up, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class

NES

(Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 1.27

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.11

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.06

TOTAL 2.68

4­foot medium bipin 1.53

8­foot single pin slimline 0.12

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.03

4­foot medium bipin 2.98

8­foot single pin slimline 0.18

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.17

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.14

TOTAL 4.63

4­foot medium bipin 4.85

8­foot single pin slimline 0.29

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.22

TOTAL 7.20

4­foot medium bipin 8.24

8­foot single pin slimline 0.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.72

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.63

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.90

2­foot U­shaped 0.37

TOTAL 11.27

11B­7

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Emerging, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class

NES

(Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 1.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.18

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.62

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.62

4­foot medium bipin 1.57

8­foot single pin slimline 0.13

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.24

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.62

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.07

TOTAL 3.76

4­foot medium bipin 4.24

8­foot single pin slimline 0.18

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.25

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.62

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.19

TOTAL 6.64

4­foot medium bipin 7.31

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.62

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.33

TOTAL 10.54

4­foot medium bipin 8.34

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.72

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.74

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.14

2­foot U­shaped 0.38

TOTAL 11.75

11B­8

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings for General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Under the Emerging, Shift, Market Segment­Based Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

TSL Product Class

NES

(Quads)

Undiscounted

4­foot medium bipin 0.43

8­foot single pin slimline 0.08

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.04

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.30

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.02

TOTAL 1.67

4­foot medium bipin 0.60

8­foot single pin slimline 0.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.21

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.30

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.03

TOTAL 2.04

4­foot medium bipin 2.33

8­foot single pin slimline 0.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.22

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.30

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.11

TOTAL 3.95

4­foot medium bipin 3.34

8­foot single pin slimline 0.26

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.66

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.30

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.15

TOTAL 5.52

4­foot medium bipin 3.72

8­foot single pin slimline 0.26

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.67

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.34

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.79

2­foot U­shaped 0.17

TOTAL 5.96

11B­9

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
1

2

3

4

5

11B.2.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Table 11B.11 and Table 11B.10 provide NES results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector lamps under the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivities. Results are

cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. In general, the

10 percent lumen increase scenario reflects lower energy savings than the other shipment

scenarios, as it incorporates higher­wattage or same­wattage lamp designs.

Table 11B.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

0.15

0.65

1.40

2.01

2.48

Table 11B.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

10% Lumen Increase Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.02

2 0.31

3 0.69

4 1.06

5 1.28

Table 11B.11 through Table 11B.18 provide NES results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector lamps under all eight possible scenarios. Results are cumulative to 2042

and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads.

11B­10

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
1

2

3

4

5

Table 11B.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

0.37

1.06

1.89

2.32

2.60

Table 11B.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.22

2 0.52

3 1.00

4 1.25

5 1.48

Table 11B.13 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

Shift, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.37

2 1.02

3 1.88

4 2.32

5 2.70

Table 11B.14 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

Roll­up, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.37

2 0.90

3 1.72

4 2.21

5 2.60

11B­11

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
1

2

3

4

5

Table 11B.15 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Existing Technologies,

Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

0.37

0.87

1.72

2.21

2.70

Table 11B.16 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.28

2 0.60

3 1.06

4 1.27

5 1.43

Table 11B.17 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

Shift, No Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.22

2 0.54

3 1.01

4 1.26

5 1.48

Table 11B.18 Cumulative National Energy Savings for IRL in the Emerging Technologies,

Roll­up, Product Substitution Scenario (2012­2042) (quads)

Trial Standard Level NES (Quads)

1 0.28

2 0.58

3 1.04

4 1.26

5 1.43

11B­12

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
11B.2.2 NET PRESENT VALUE

11B.2.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Table 11B.19 and Table 11B.26 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for general

service fluorescent lamps under all eight possible scenarios.

11B­13

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.19 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Existing Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL Product Class

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted

at 7%

Discounted at

3%

4­foot medium bipin 3.93 9.04

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10 0.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.35 0.60

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.11 2.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.18 0.41

TOTAL 7.12 16.46

4­foot medium bipin 3.14 7.78

8­foot single pin slimline 0.15 0.45

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.43 0.73

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.11 2.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.35

TOTAL 6.43 15.39

4­foot medium bipin 7.56 17.53

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.81

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.12 0.26

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.11 2.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.34 0.80

TOTAL 11.09 25.67

4­foot medium bipin 17.47 35.93

8­foot single pin slimline 0.87 1.89

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.11 2.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.79 1.63

TOTAL 23.37 48.61

4­foot medium bipin 18.37 38.56

8­foot single pin slimline 0.87 1.89

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.38 2.62

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.45 3.46

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.83 1.75

TOTAL 24.49 51.90

11B­14

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.20 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(billion 2007$)

TSL Product Class

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted

at 7%

Discounted at

3%

4­foot medium bipin ­0.01 0.73

8­foot single pin slimline 0.03 0.21

8­foot recessed double contact HO ­0.17 ­0.24

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.19

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.00 0.03

TOTAL 0.71 2.82

4­foot medium bipin ­0.35 0.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.35

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.53 0.87

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.19

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped ­0.02 0.02

TOTAL 1.11 3.85

4­foot medium bipin 1.79 5.58

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.80

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.06 0.14

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.19

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.08 0.25

TOTAL 3.23 8.98

4­foot medium bipin 5.97 13.34

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38 0.97

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.05 0.19

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.27 0.61

TOTAL 8.85 19.59

4­foot medium bipin 5.53 12.80

8­foot single pin slimline 0.45 1.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.28 2.46

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.23 0.69

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.25 0.58

TOTAL 8.54 19.53

11B­15

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.21 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Existing Technologies, Roll­up, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL Product Class

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted

at 7%

Discounted at

3%

4­foot medium bipin 3.15 7.37

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.32

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.23 0.37

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.33 0.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.34

TOTAL 5.14 12.08

4­foot medium bipin 3.06 7.59

8­foot single pin slimline 0.15 0.45

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.49 0.79

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.33 0.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.35

TOTAL 5.36 12.86

4­foot medium bipin 4.47 11.49

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.81

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.02 0.06

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.33 0.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.20 0.52

TOTAL 6.66 16.67

4­foot medium bipin 12.75 26.76

8­foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.33 0.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.58 1.22

TOTAL 16.92 35.75

4­foot medium bipin 18.29 38.33

8­foot single pin slimline 0.77 1.70

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.38 2.62

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.47 3.45

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.83 1.74

TOTAL 24.07 50.87

11B­16

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.22 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Existing Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment­Based Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(billion 2007$)

TSL Product Class

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted

at 7%

Discounted at

3%

4­foot medium bipin (0.01) 0.73

8­foot single pin slimline 0.03 0.21

8­foot recessed double contact HO (0.17) (0.24)

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped (0.00) 0.03

TOTAL 0.73 2.87

4­foot medium bipin (0.35) 0.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.35

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.53 0.87

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped (0.02) 0.02

TOTAL 1.13 3.91

4­foot medium bipin 1.84 5.75

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.80

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.06 0.14

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.08 0.26

TOTAL 3.29 9.21

4­foot medium bipin 6.43 14.49

8­foot single pin slimline 0.38 0.97

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.07 0.24

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.29 0.66

TOTAL 9.34 20.85

4­foot medium bipin 6.01 14.07

8­foot single pin slimline 0.45 1.11

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.28 2.46

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29 0.89

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.81 1.91

2­foot U­Shaped 0.27 0.64

TOTAL 9.11 21.05

11B­17

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.23 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Existing Technologies, Shift, Market Segment­Based Lighting Expertise Scenario (2012­

2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL Product Class

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted

at 7%

Discounted at

3%

4­foot medium bipin (0.01) 0.73

8­foot single pin slimline 0.03 0.21

8­foot recessed double contact HO (0.14) (0.19)

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.40 1.07

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped (0.00) 0.03

TOTAL 1.23 4.09

4­foot medium bipin (0.35) 0.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.35

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.52 0.86

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.40 1.07

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped (0.02) 0.02

TOTAL 1.60 5.06

4­foot medium bipin 2.47 6.93

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.80

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.09 0.18

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.40 1.07

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.11 0.32

TOTAL 4.50 11.74

4­foot medium bipin 7.07 15.66

8­foot single pin slimline 0.45 1.12

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.40 1.07

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.32 0.71

TOTAL 10.63 23.49

4­foot medium bipin 5.90 13.84

8­foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.28 2.46

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.29 0.90

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.27 0.63

TOTAL 9.15 21.21

11B­18

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.24 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL Product Class

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted

at 7%

Discounted at

3%

4­foot medium bipin 3.15 7.37

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.32

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.23 0.37

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.34

TOTAL 5.08 11.91

4­foot medium bipin 3.06 7.59

8­foot single pin slimline 0.15 0.45

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.49 0.79

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.35

TOTAL 5.30 12.69

4­foot medium bipin 4.15 10.61

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.81

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.02 0.06

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.19 0.48

TOTAL 6.27 15.57

4­foot medium bipin 11.92 24.65

8­foot single pin slimline 0.58 1.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.27 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.54 1.12

TOTAL 16.00 33.39

4­foot medium bipin 16.94 34.78

8­foot single pin slimline 0.77 1.70

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.38 2.62

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.25 2.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.20 2.81

2­foot U­Shaped 0.77 1.58

TOTAL 22.44 46.57

11B­19

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.25 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Emerging Technologies, Shift, High Expertise Scenario (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL Product Class

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted

at 7%

Discounted at

3%

4­foot medium bipin 3.93 9.04

8­foot single pin slimline 0.10 0.34

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.35 0.60

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.95 2.23

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.18 0.41

TOTAL 6.95 15.99

4­foot medium bipin 3.14 7.78

8­foot single pin slimline 0.15 0.45

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.43 0.73

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.95 2.23

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.14 0.35

TOTAL 6.26 14.92

4­foot medium bipin 7.08 16.24

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.81

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.12 0.26

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.95 2.23

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.32 0.74

TOTAL 10.42 23.85

4­foot medium bipin 16.37 33.04

8­foot single pin slimline 0.87 1.89

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.95 2.23

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.74 1.50

TOTAL 22.04 45.11

4­foot medium bipin 17.02 35.00

8­foot single pin slimline 0.87 1.89

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.38 2.62

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 1.23 2.87

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 1.46 3.38

2­foot U­Shaped 0.77 1.59

TOTAL 22.86 47.59

11B­20

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 11B.26 Cumulative NPV Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps Under the

Emerging Technologies, Shift, Market Segment­Based Expertise Scenario (2012­2042)

(billion 2007$)

TSL Product Class

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted

at 7%

Discounted at

3%

4­foot medium bipin (0.01) 0.73

8­foot single pin slimline 0.03 0.21

8­foot recessed double contact HO (0.14) (0.19)

1 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped (0.00) 0.03

TOTAL 1.15 3.87

4­foot medium bipin (0.35) 0.52

8­foot single pin slimline 0.09 0.35

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.52 0.86

2 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped (0.02) 0.02

TOTAL 1.52 4.85

4­foot medium bipin 2.38 6.65

8­foot single pin slimline 0.37 0.80

8­foot recessed double contact HO 0.09 0.18

3 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.11 0.30

TOTAL 4.34 11.23

4­foot medium bipin 6.59 14.39

8­foot single pin slimline 0.45 1.12

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.33 2.53

4 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.32 0.86

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.30 0.65

TOTAL 10.05 21.95

4­foot medium bipin 5.41 12.58

8­foot single pin slimline 0.49 1.17

8­foot recessed double contact HO 1.28 2.46

5 4­foot T5 miniature bipin SO 0.22 0.70

4­foot T5 miniature bipin HO 0.94 2.24

2­foot U­Shaped 0.25 0.57

TOTAL 8.58 19.70

11B­21

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
11B.2.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Table 11B.27 and Table 11B.28 provide NPV results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector lamps under the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivities. Results are

cumulative to 2042 and are shown in 2007$. In general, the 10 percent lumen increase scenario

reflects lower NPV than the other shipment scenarios, as it incorporates higher­wattage or samewattage lamp designs.

Table 11B.27 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, 10% Lumen

Increase (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 ­0.76 ­1.45

2 2.10 4.24

3 2.98 6.09

4 5.40 11.18

5 6.49 13.50

Table 11B.28 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, 10% Lumen

Increase (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 ­0.67 ­1.29

2 1.18 2.36

3 1.73 3.52

4 3.14 6.46

5 3.74 7.71

Table 11B.29 through and Table 11B.36provide NPV results for each TSL considered for

incandescent reflector lamps under all eight possible scenarios.

11B­22

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
1

2

3

4

5

Table 11B.29 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

0.19 0.55

3.47 7.11

4.75 9.85

6.75 13.97

7.52 15.55

Table 11B.30 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 ­0.06 0.00

2 1.82 3.71

3 2.58 5.30

4 3.72 7.68

5 4.34 8.99

Table 11B.31 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Shift, No Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 ­0.12 ­0.10

2 3.08 6.32

3 4.35 9.02

4 6.21 12.91

5 7.12 14.84

11B­23

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
1

2

3

4

5

Table 11B.32 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll­up, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

0.19 0.55

3.16 6.44

4.27 8.79

6.55 13.52

7.52 15.55

Table 11B.33 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Existing Technologies, Roll­up, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 ­0.12 ­0.10

2 2.77 5.64

3 3.86 7.95

4 6.00 12.45

5 7.12 14.84

Table 11B.34 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.30 0.73

2 2.24 4.56

3 3.09 6.32

4 4.29 8.78

5 4.78 9.79

11B­24

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
1

2

3

4

5

1

2

3

4

5

Table 11B.35 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Shift, No

Product Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

­0.06 0.00

1.86 3.78

2.65 5.42

3.75 7.73

4.34 8.99

Table 11B.36 Cumulative NPV Results for IRL: Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Product

Substitution (2012­2042) (billion 2007$)

TSL

NPV

(billion 2007$)

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

0.30 0.73

2.20 4.48

3.02 6.19

4.26 8.73

4.78 9.79

11B­25

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2