## IDEM INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT We· Pr otect Hoosier s and OurEnvironment. Mitchell E. Daniels Jr

. 100 North Senate Avenue Governor Indianapolis, Indiana 46204 (317) 232-8603 

### Thomas W. 

### Easterl y Toll Free (800) 451-6027 Commissioner 

### www
.idem.IN

.gov



## Ms

. Susan Hedman Regional Administrator U

.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 5 77 West Jackson Boulevard Chicago, IL 60604-3950 Dear Ms

. Hedman : October 12, 2012

Re : Request to Parallel Process the Draft MOBILE6.2 to MOVES MVEB Replacement Update to the Indiana Portion ofthe Cincinnati

-Hamilton, Ohio-KentuckyIndiana Maintenance Area under the 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard The Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM) submits the enclosed MOBILE6.2 to Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) Motor Vehicle Emissions Budget (MVEB) replacement update for the Indiana portion of the CincinnatiHamilton , Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Maintenance Area under the 1997 8-hour ozone standard

. IDEM requests that the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) parallel process this draft submittal for approval into Indiana's State Implementation Plan. IDEM is providing an opportunity for a public hearing on the MVEB replacement update to the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio

-Kentucky-Indiana maintenance area if a public hearing request is received by November 20, 2012. A hearing has been scheduled for November 28, 2012. If a request for a public hearing is not received by November 20, 2012, the hearing will be cancelled. IDEM is providing a 42 day comment period on this update, with the public comment period ending on November 30, 2012. The final submittal of the MVEB update for the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana maintenance area will document the public review process, including a detailed summary of and response to substantive comments

. This MOBILE6.2 to MOVES MVEB replacement update incorporates onroad emission estimates and revised MVEBs using U

.S. EPA's recently adopted MOVES model. The onroad emission estimates were calculated using the MOVES-based emission factors and data extracted from the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati

-Hamilton , Ohio

-Kentucky
-Indiana area's travel-demand model.

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## @ A n Equal Opportunity Empl oyer Pl ease Recycle 

## 0

## Ms. Hedman Page 2 MVEBs are being revised in anticipation of the mandatory use of the MOVES model in future transportation conformity determinations. Preliminary use of the new model indicates that emission estimates can be considerably different than similar calculations using MOBILE6.2, which was used to create the MVEBs in the original ozone maintenance plan. Onroad safety margins, established through the interagency consultation process, are included for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These on road safety margins are allocated to onroad emission estimates in order to account for the wide array of assumptions that are factored into the calculation process. With the addition of on road safety margins applied to mobile sources, the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana maintenance area will continue to remain well below the overall safety margins for all sources. MVEBs are also constrained to ensure that total NOx and VOC emissions (i.e., all source categories) do not exceed attainment year emissions to ensure continued maintenance of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. This submittal consists of one (1) hard copy of the required documentation. An electronic version of the submittal in PDF format that is identical to the hard copy has been sent to Pamela Blakley, Chief of U.S. EPA Region 5's Control Strategies Section. IDEM respectfully requests that U.S. EPA proceed with preliminary review of the MOBILE6.2 to MOVES MVEB replacement update and revised transportation conformity budgets and approval into Indiana's State Implementation Plan for the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Maintenance Area under the 1997 8- hour ozone standard. If you have any questions or need additional information, please contact Scott Deloney, Chief, Air Programs Branch, at (317) 233-5694.

KB/sad/sms Enclosures: Sincerely, 

## ((;**ll)~.r** 

## Keith Baugues Assistant Commissioner Office of Air Quality

Onroad Emissions MOBILE6.2 to MOVES Replacement Submittal for the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Maintenance Area under the 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard and Appendices Electronic MOVES-based modeling input and output data files Cc: Doug Aburano, U.S. EPA Region 5 (w/ enclosures) Ed Doty, U.S. EPA Region 5 (w/ enclosures) Pamela Blakley, U.S. EPA Region 5 (w/ enclosures) Pat Morris, U.S. EPA Region 5 (w/ enclosures) Steve Rosenthal, U.S. EPA Region 5 (no enclosures)
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## Ms. Hedman Page 3 Jennifer Dines, Ohio EPA (w/ enclosures) Mark R. Policinski, OKI (w/ enclosures) Andy Reser, OKI (w/ enclosures) Scott Deloney, IDEM (no enclosures) Christine Pedersen, IDEM (no enclosures) Shawn Seals, IDEM (w/ enclosures)

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# Onroad Emissions MOBILE6.2 to MOVES Replacement Submittal

For the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, OhioKentucky-Indiana Maintenance Area under the 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard

October 2012

## This page intentionally left blank

## Introduction 

## On January 21, 2010, the Indiana Department ofEnvironmental Management (IDEM) submitted a Request for Redesignation andMaintenance Planfor Ozone Attainment in the Indiana Portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana 8-Hour Ozone NonattainmentArea. 

## The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) subsequently approved the Indiana redesignation ofthe Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area to attainment for ozone on May II, 2010 (75 FR 26118). Onroad emissions for the January 21, 2010, submittal were calculated using MOBILE6.2. U.S. EPA has encouraged mobile source stakeholders to transition to the new Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) model as expeditiously as possible. Therefore, IDEM is providing this MOBILE6.2 to MOVES replacement update to the previously submitted 8-hour ozone maintenance plan for the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area that incorporates MOVES-based onroad emissions. Emission Inventory


## The tables, "2005 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources" and "2008 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources" were included in Appendix C ofthe original Redesignation Petition and Maintenance Plan. The tables, "2015 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources" and "2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources" were included in Appendix E ofthe original Redesignation Petition and Maintenance Plan. The consolidated table, "2005, 2008,2015, and 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources" (to be considered a replacement ofthe existing separate 2005,2008,2015, and 2020 tables included in Appendices C and E as detailed above) has been revised to incorporate updated onroad emission estimates for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for the years 2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 and results in a different overall safety margin for the area. It should be noted that, "2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources" includes only Ohio and Indiana MOVES-based onroad emissions consistent with the manner in which the Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEBs) were established in the original Ohio and Indiana State Implementation Plans (SIPs).

I

## 2005 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources (MOBILE6.2-based Onroad Emissions)

2

## 2008 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources (MOBILE6.2-based Onroad Emissions)

3

## 2015 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources (MOBILE6.2-based Onroad Emissions)



## 4

## 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources (MOBILE6.2-based Onroad Emissions)

5

## 2005,2008,2015, and 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources including Only Ohio and Indiana Onroad Emissions (MOVES-Based Onroad Emissions) (Tons per Summer Day- MOVES-based) Sector 2005 NO, 2008 NO, 2015 NO, 2020 NO, Area 

### 21.39 21.38 21.38 21.38 Nonroad 

### 73.19 62.35 45.73 39.27 Onroad 

### 157

.38 131.28 81.96 63

.59

Point 

### 138

.03 112.29 159.03 163.65 Total 

### 389.99 327.30 309.41 289

.20 Overall 

### NA NA 

### 17.89 38

. 10 Safety Margin 

### Sector 2005 

## voc 2008 

## voc 2015 

## voc 2020VOC Area 

### 87.12 78.36 74.69 74.69 Nonroad 

### 41.84 39.04 33.65 32.09 Onroad 

### 93.68 95.55 48.75 37.23

Point 

### 15.13 14.91 17.50 18.46 Total 

### 237

.77 227.86 174.59 162.47 Overall 

### NA NA 

### 53

.27 65

.39 Safety Margin 

## Omoad emission estimates in table, " 2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Antluopogenic Sources including Only Ohio and Indiana Onroad Emissions" were calculated using U.S. EPA's MOVES model-produced emission factors and data extracted from the area's travel-demand model. The MOVES model implements a significantly different approach to emissions estimation than the previous model (MOBILE6.2). Preliminary use ofthe MOVES model indicates that emission estimates can be considerably different than similar calculations using MOBILE6.2, which was used to create the original MVEBs for the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area. A general summary ofthe MOVES methodology used in this area can be found in Appendix A. 

## In addition, MOVES input and output files are being provided electronically with this submittal. Growth and control strategy assumptions for non-mobile sources (i

.e. area, nomoad, and point) from the original submittal for the years 2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 were developed before the economic challenges ofthe last several years. Because ofthis, the factors included in the original submittal may project more growth than will actually occur in the future

. As a result, the growth and control strategy assumptions for the non-mobile sources for the years 2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 continue to be valid and do not affect the overall conclusions ofthe plan. Onroad safety margins have been included for onroad emission estimates to accommodate the wide array ofassumptions that are factored into the calculation process. Since assumptions change over time, it is necessary to have an onroad safety margin that will accommodate the impact ofrefined assumptions in the process. The plan continues to meet all applicable Clean Air Act (CAA) requirements as the revised emission inventories clearly illustrate that total NOx and VOC emissions in the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana

6

## Area will continue to decline leading to local reductions between 2008 (base year) and 2020 (maintenance plan horizon). Transportation Conformity Budgets 

## Table 5.1 was included on Page 25 ofthe original Redesignation Petition and Maintenance Plan for the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area. Table 5.1- A (to be considered a replacement ofTable 5.1) has been revised to incorporate U.S. EPA's MOVES model-produced emission factors and data extracted from the region's travel-demand model. Table 5.1 from the original submittal included onroad emissions for Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana. For consistency throughout this replacement, Table 5.1 -A includes MOVES-based onroad emissions for only Ohio and Indiana. Table 5,1 Emission Estimations for On-Road Mobile Sources for the Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN Ozone Nonattainment Area (MOBILE-Based Onroad Emissions)
Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN NAArea 

### VOC (tons/day) NO, (tons/day) Lawrenceburg Township (Dearborn County Indiana) subtotal 

### VOC (tons/day) NO, (tons/day) Lawrenceburg Township subtotal% 

### VOC (tons/day) NO, (tons/day) 

### 2005 69.43 136.73

1.00 1.44

1.44 1.05 

### 2008 55.47 113.45

0.75 1.14

1.35 1.00



## 7 2015 2020 35.35 32.14 51.04 38.17

0.50 0.42 0.60 0.42

1.41 1.31 1.18 1.10

## Table 5.1- A Emission Estimates for On-Road Mobile Sources for the Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN Ozone Nonattainment Area (MOVES-Based Onroad Emissions)
Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN NAArea 

### 2005 2008 2015 2020 VOC (tons/day) 

### 93.68 95.55 48.75 37.23 NO, (tons/day) Lawrenceburg Township (Dearborn County Indiana) subtotal 

### 157.38 131.28 81.96 63.59

VOC (tons/day) NO, (tons/day) Lawrenceburg Township subtotal% VOC (tons/day) NO, (tons/day) 

### 1.31 2.18

1.40 1.39 1.35 1.82

1.41 1.39 0.69 0.53 1.14 0.89

1.42 1.42 1.39 1.40 

## Table 5.2 was also included on Page 25 ofthe original Redesignation Petition and Maintenance Plan for the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area. Table 5.2

- A (to be considered a replacement ofTable 5.2) has been revised to incorporate MVEBs calculated using U.S. EPA's MOVES model-produced emission factors and data extracted from the region's travel-demand model as detailed in Table 5.1 

## -A. 

## Table 5.2 Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEB) for the Ohio and Indiana Portions ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN Ozone Nonattainment Area (MOBILE6.2-Based Onroad Emissions)

2015 2020 VOC (tons/day) 

### 31.73 28.82 NOx (tons/day) 

### 49.00 34.39



### 8

## Table5.2 -A Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEB) for the Ohio and Indiana Portions ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN Ozone Nonattainment Area (MOVES-Based Onroad Emissions)

2015 2020 VOC (tons/day) 

### 56.06 42.81 NOx (tons/day) 

### 94.25 73.13 

## Through the interagency consultation process, it was determined that a maintenance plan interim year budget of20 15 and a horizon year budget of2020, would be appropriate. The interagency consultation group approved onroad margins ofsafety offifteen percent (15%) for both VOC and NOx onroad emission estimates for the years 2015 and 2020. A summary ofthis interagency consultation discussion can be found in Appendix B. These revised emission inventories clearly illustrate that omoad VOC and NOx emissions in the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area will continue to decline leading to local reductions between 2008 (base year) and 2015 (maintenance plan interim), as well as 2008 (base year) and 2020 (maintenance plan horizon). Furthermore, when compared to the overall safety margin as defined in the Code ofFederal Regulations (CFR) at 40 CFR 93.101, it is evident the omoad safety margin allocation is reasonable and appropriate. More specifically, even with the allocation ofan onroad safety margin to mobile sources, emissions will continue to remain well below the overall safety margin for all sources as detailed in table, "2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Antln·opogenic Sources including Only Ohio and Indiana Onroad Emissions". MVEBs are constrained to ensure that the total emissions (i.e., all source categories) do not exceed the 2008 attainment year emissions ofeither VOC or NOx. thereby ensuring continued maintenance ofthe 1997 8-hour ozone standard. Conclusion This MOBILE6.2 to MOVES replacement update to the previously submitted 8-hour ozone maintenance plan for the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area incorporates onroad emission estimates and a revised MVEB using U.S. EPA's recently adopted MOVES model. MVEBs have been revised in anticipation ofthe mandatory use ofthe MOVES model in future transportation conformity determinations. The omoad emission estimates were calculated using the MOVES-based emission factors and data extracted from the area's traveldemand model. Omoad safety margins for VOCs and NOx, established through the interagency consultation process, are included in order to account for the wide array ofassumptions that are factored into the calculation process. MVEBs are also constrained to ensure that total VOC and NOx emissions (i.e., all source categories) do not exceed attainment year (2008) emissions to ensure continued maintenance ofthe 1997 8-hour ozone standard. With the addition ofMOVESbased omoad safety margins applied to mobile sources, the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati

## 9

## Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area will continue to remain well below the overall safety margins for all sources into the future. As such, the 8-hour ozone maintenance plan for the Indiana portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area continues to meet all applicable CAA requirements.

10

# Appendix A

Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Maintenance Area MOVES Methodology

## This page left intentionally blank

# Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance Area - MOVES emissions model Includes a portion of Dearborn County, Indiana, the counties of Boone , Campbell, Kenton in Kentucky, and the counties of**Butler~** 

### Clermont , Clinton, Hamilton, and Warren in Ohio

. Emission estimates for the Year 2005, 2008, 2015, 2020, and 2030 developed in 

### support of revision to Ozone State Implementation Plan

April2012

Prepared fo r the Indiana D epartmentof E

nvironmentalManagement, the Kentuck y Divi sion forAir Quality and the Ohi o Envir onmental P r ot

ection Agency by 

### OKI Regional Council ofGovernments

Ohi o • Ke nt ucky • Indian a Region<I/ Council o f Govc .-nmc nts

## Acknowledgments

Title 

### Abstract

Date

Agency

ProjectManager

ProjectStaff Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance Area This report was prepared for the Indiana Department of Environmental Management, the l<entucky Division for Air Quality and the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. The Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance area includes a portion of Dearborn County Indiana, the counties of Boone, Campbell, Kenton in l<entucky, and the counties of Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Hamilton, and Warren in Ohio. Clinton County is outside ofOKI's MPO area with emission estimates prepared by the Ohio Department of Transportation. This report includes emission estimates for the years 2005, 2008, 2015, 2020 and 2030 was generated to support a revision to the SIPs for the 8-hour Ozone s tandard. EPA's Motor Vehicle Emission Simulation (MOVES) 2010 was used to generate the emission rates. April2012

Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments Mark Policinski , Executive Director Robert Koehler, P.E., Deputy Director

Andrew 

### J. Reser, AICP

Harikishan Perugu, PTP Larry Buckler

The preparation ofthis document was financed cooperatively by the Federal Highway Administration, the Federal Transit Administration, the Commonwealth of Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, the Ohio Department ofTransportation, and the units of local and county government in the OKI region. The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this document are those of the OKI Regional Council of Governments and are not necessarily those of the U.S

. Department ofTransportation. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation.

# MOBILE Source Emissions Inventory for the Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance area

This report was prepared for the Indiana Department of Environmental Management, the Kentucky Division for Air Quality and the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. The Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance area includes a portion of Dearborn County Indiana, the counties of Boone, Campbell, Kenton in Kentucky, and the counties of Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Hamilton, and Warren in Ohio. Clinton County Ohio is outside OKI's MPO boundaries. The Ohio Department of Transportation prepares emission estimates for Clinton County. This report includes emission estimates for the years 2005, 2008, 2015, 2020 and 2030 generated to support the SIPs for the 8-hour ozone standard. EPA's Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) 2010 model was used to generate the vehicle emission rates. In December 2009, MOVES replaced MOBILE6.2 as the EPA's official emission factor model. The OKI travel demand model version 7.6 was used to generate VMT and speed estimates. MOVES emission rates were generated for VOC's, and NOx. OKI, as the MPO, is responsible for transportation planning and air quality/transportation conformity. Transportation conformity is a mechanism to ensure that federal funding and approval are given to those transportation activities that are consistent with the air quality goals of the State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio. The SIPs include an inventory of projected emissions from vehicles. One or more of the analysis years in the projected inventory may be designated as the motor vehicle emissions budget (MVEB). This budget establishes a maximum allowable limit on future emissions from vehicles (mobile sources). OKI's transportation plans and programs must be shown to be in conformity with all SIP provisions. The conformity process is a quantitative analysis, using U.S. EPA's vehicle emissions software (currently MOVES), demonstrating that forecasted regional vehicle emissions do not exceed the established budget. Table 1 shows daily mobile source emissions for the combined Indiana and Ohio portions of the Maintenance area, including Clinton County. Table 2 shows daily mobile source emissions for the Kentucky portion of the Maintenance area. Separate MVEB's are typically designated for these two areas. An additional safety margin should be added to the MVEB's due uncertainty with growth assumptions utilized in the OKI travel demand model and MOVES. Daily mobile source emissions for each county are shown in Table 3.



# 5 OK/Ozone Mobile Sour·ce Emissions Inventory Using EPA MOVES, Apri/2012Table 1 Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for the Indiana and Ohio Portions of the Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance Area tons per day) 

### 2005 2008 2015 2020 2030 

### VOC 93.68 95.54 48.75 37.24 31.81 

### NOx 157.38 131.28 81.95 63.59 56.48
Table 2 Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for the Kentucky Portion of the Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance Area tons per day) 

### 2005 2008 2015 2020 2030 

## voc 25.20 16.53 9.08 5.89 4.53 

### NOx 80.14 55.34 31.55 18.75 14.37



# 6 OKI OzoneMobile Sou,.ce EmissionsInventmy Using EPA MOVES, April2012

### Table 3 Mobile Source Emissions by State/County for the Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance Area (tpd) State 

### 2005 2008 2015 2020 2030 Indiana Dearborn NA VMT 

### 599,761 613,027 686,339 730,126 800,277 

# voc 1.31 1.35 0.69 0.53 0.45 NOx 

### 2.18 1.82 1.14 0.89 0.80 Ohio Butler VMT 

### 7,804,476 8,133,554 8,721,511 9,277,916 10,169,344 

# voc 16.70 17.12 8.72 6.68 5.72 NOx 

### 27.76 23.15 14.53 11.36 10.16 Clermont VMT 

### 5,391,578 5,599,530 5,810,859 6,181,573 6,775,503 

# voc 11 '13 11.41 5.81 4.45 3.81 NOx 

### 18.50 15.42 9.68 7.57 6.77 Hamilton VMT 

### 23,170,766 23,481,421 25,598,858 27,231,982 29,848,450 

# voc 49.03 50.26 25.59 19.61 16.80 NOx 

### 81.49 67.95 42.65 33.35 29.82 Warren VMT 

### 6,263,010 6,464,217 6,571,210 6,990,432 7,662,077 VOC 

### 12.59 12.90 6.57 5.03 4.31 NOx 

### 20.92 17.44 10.95 8.56 7.65 OKI OH/IN Total VMT 

### 43,229,591 44,291,749 47,388,777 50,412,029 55,255,652 

# voc 90.76 93.03 47.38 36.31 31.10 NOx 

### 150.85 125.78 78.95 61.73 55.20 Clinton, OH VMT 

### 1,956,501 1,939,190 2,215,886 2,349,923 2,736,782 

# voc 2.92 2.51 1.37 0.93 0.71 NOx 

### 6.53 5.50 3.01 1.86 1.28 OH/IN VOC Total 

### 93.68 95.54 48.75 37.24 31.81 OH/IN NOx Total 

### 157.38 131.28 81.95 63.59 56.48

Kentucky 

### 2005 2008 2015 2020 2030 Boone

VMT 

### 4,186,006 4,355,527 4,712,497 5,129,347 5,802,955 

# voc 9.71 6.37 3.50 2.27 1.75 NOx 

### 30.88 21.32 12.16 7.22 5.54 

## 7 OKI OzoneMobileSourceEmissionsInventory Using EPA MOVES. Apl'il2012Campbell VMT 2,437,698 2,495,174 2,727,746 2,969,033 3,358,939 

# voc 5

.62 3.69 2

.03 1 .3 1 1 .01 NOx 17.87 12.34 7.04 4.18 3.20 Kenton VMT 4,182,042 4,197,027 4,791,791 5,2 1 5,655 5,900,597 

# voc 9.87 6.47 3.56 2.31 1.77 NOx 31.40 21.68 12.36 7.34 5.63 OKI KY Total VMT 10,805,746 11,047,728 12,232,034 13,314,036 15,062,492 

# voc 25.20 16.53 9.08 5.89 4.53 NOx 80.14 55.34 31.55 18.75 14.37 NA Area Total 

# voc 118.88 112.07 57.84 43.13 36.34 NOx 237.52 186.62 11 3.50 82

.34 70.85 

## Mobile Source Emission Forecast Process Emission Factor Model OKI's conformity assessment utilized U.S.EPA's emissions model MOVES 2010 to develop emission factors for VO C and NOx
. Table 4 summarizes the settings used in the MOVES run specification fil e
. Table 5 li sts the data used in the MOVES County-Data Manager. Further technical details on the use of MOVES are found in the appendix to the OKI report 

### "Mobile Source Emi ssions Inventoryfor Cincinnati PM2.5 NonattainmentArea", revised December 2010. Table 4 MOVES RunSpec Parameter Settings MOVES 2010a, default database 20100829 Sca le County, Emission Rates Tim e Span Time aggregation = Hour July weekday, July m eteorological data All hours of da y selected Weekdays only Geographic Bounds Two Custom Dom ains 1) 4 Ohio counties and Lawrenceburg IN, 2) 3 Kentucky co unties Vehicles/Equipment All source types, gasoline and diesel Road Type Al l road types including off-network Poll uta nts and Processes Al l Ozone categories, Tota l Energy Consumption Strategies Modifi ed AVFT strategy fi le to reflect 0% CNG buses in the transitf leet General Output Units= grams, joul es and mi les Output Emissions Time 

## =hour, Location =county, on-road emission rates by road type and source use type

. 

# 8 OK! Ozone Mobile Sow·ce Emi ssions Inventory Usinn EPA MOVES , Apri/2012

# I Advanced Performance 

# I none

Table 5 County Data Manager Data Source Source Type Population Local and default. Local data from KYTC (2011) and ODOT (2010) from motorvehicle registration data

. Default data used for source types 41, 61 and 62

. Vehicle Type VMT Local and defau lt. HPMSVTypeYear VMT=da ily VMT from OKI travel demand model with EPA's daily to annual VMT converter applied

. monthVMTFraction = default

. dayVMTFraction=defau lt, hourVMTFraction=loca l

. 1 /M Programs Defau lt modified to reflect discontinued 1/M program in 2006 Fu el Formu lation Modified to reflect low RVP fuel program in Southwest Oh io Fuel Supply Default Meteorology Data Local. MOBILE6 converted values for Ohio and Kentucky values from Kentucky Division for Air Quality. Ramp Fraction Local. OKI travel demand model. Road Type Distri bution Local. OKI travel demand model. Age Distribution L ocal and default. Local data from KYTC (2011) and ODOT (2010) from motorvehicle registration data. Defa ult data used fo r source types 41, 61 and 62

. Average Speed Distribution Local. OKI travel demand model.


## OKI Travel DemandModel Vehicle m iles traveled and vehicle hours were estimated using the OKI Travel Demand Model Version 7.6. The OKI Travel Demand Model is composed of CUBE Voyager programs and a series of FORTRAN programs written by OKI. It is a state of the practice model that uses the standard 4 phase sequentia l modeling approach of trip generation, distribution, modal choice and assignment. The mode l uses demographic and land use data and capacity and free-flow speed characteristics for each roadway segment in the network to produce a "loaded" highway network with forecasted traffic volumes with revised speeds based on specified speed/capacity relationships. Travel analysis zones are the basic geographic unit for estimating travel in the OKI model. The OKI region is subdivided into 1608 traffic analysis zones to permit detail as well as manageability

. A variety of socioeconomic data items are used in the Ol<l transportation planning process. These data are used primari ly to forecast future t ravel patterns by serving as independent va riables in OKI trip generation equations. The foll owing categories of planning dat a are utilized:

• Popu lation (household and group quarter) 

# 9 0/(J OzoneMobileSource Emissionslnventmy Using EPA MOVES, Apri/2012• Households • Household vehicles • Employment (by employment category and zone of work) • Labor force participation (by zone of residence) • Area type The principal data requirements of the OKI travel demand forecasting model are population and em ployment. From these variables, other characteristics including households, labor force, and personal vehicles may be derived. Chapter 5 of OK/2030 R egional Transportation Plan 2008 Update provides a complete demographic overview ofthe region. OKI utilizes both base year (2005) and future year data (2010, 2020 and 2030) in the planning process. Pla nning data are maintained at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level, and originate in the 2000 Census of Population and Housing

. Base year 2005 and future year data for each variable are developed through various methods. More detailed explanation of base yea r and future year data generation for each of the above-mentioned categories of planning data follows. All of the variables represent the latest OKI planning assumptions. 

## Population Base and Future Year Data: Population data for base year 2005 and futu re years 2010, 2020 and 2030 originate with the 2000 Census of Popuiation and Housing. Utilizing ArcView GIS, population data at the zonal level for 2000 was derived from th e area proportion allocation of block level population. As a tri-state regional planning agency, OKI uses county level projections as prepared by the respective state data centers (Ohio Department of Development Office of Strategic Research, Kentucky State Data Center and Indiana Business Research Center) as control totals. The most current projections (years 2005 to 2030) were released by the Ohio and Indiana s ta

te data centers in 2003 and the Kentucky State Data Center in 2004

. Population projections at the zonal level are calcu lated by multi plyi ng household size by the projected zonal househol ds. House hold size is fac tored so that, in each county, the sum of the zonal popul a tions equals the control total. 

## Households Base Year Data: Household data for base year 2005 originates with the 2000 Census of Population and Housing. Utilizing the geographic information system ArcMap, household data at the zonal level for 2000 was derived from the area proportion allocation of block level households
. Y ear 2000 household data was updated to 2005 with residentia l building permits issued between J anuary 2000 and December 2004. The residential building locations were geo-coded in ArcMap, then aggregated to the TAZs. The housing unit totals for each TAZ were converted to households by applying a vacancy rate, an adjustment for permitted but unbuilt units, and subtracting demolitions (where data was available). These house holds were then added to the year Census 2000 zonal household total to arrive at 2005 households for each TAZ.


# 10 OK/ Ozone MobileSource Emis sions Inventory Using EPA MOVES, April2012Future Year Data: The preparation of household projections was accomplished by calculating the number of households for a projected county population using ratios of householders to total population by age specific cohorts derived from the 2000 Census for each analysis year. Disaggregation to TAZs was determined by historical trends, existing and future land use, topography, flood plain information, availability of land, local knowledge and other factors. 

## Household Vehicles Base and Future Year Data: Base and future year household vehicle data were obtained from the 2000 Census of Population and Housing. The 2000 Census is the only source of household vehicle data available at the block group level. Average vehicles per household were calculated for block groups then applied to the TAZs associated with each block group. The 2005, 2010, 2020 and 2030 vehicles per household level was held at the 2000 level based on the fact that, since 2002, the number of vehicles per household has exceeded the number of drivers per household. 

## Labor Force Base and Future Year Data: The 

### 01<1 labor force is a function of the population as determined by a labor force participation ratio (the number of employed persons in the labor force per persons 16 and over). Household data for base year 2005 originates with the 2000 Census of Population and Housing

. Utilizing the geographic information system ArcMap, household data at the zonal level for 2000 was derived from the area proportion allocation of block group level employed labor force. The labor force projections for 2005, 2010, 2020 and 2030 were based on the most recent projections of national labor force participation rates by age and sex cohorts from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics for each ofthose years. These rates were then applied to the projected county age/sex cohorts and adjusted to eliminate the unemployed to arrive at a county employed labor force control total. Employed labor force at the zonal level is calculated by multiplying the labor force participation rate by the zonal population. The labor force participation rate is adjusted so that, in each county, the sum of the zonal labor force counts equals the control total. 

## Employment Base Year Data: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW or ES202) data for 2005 was utilized as the primary tool to calculate employment at the zonal level. Individual business records containing physical location, number of employees and SIC code were geocoded through ArcMap and aggregated to the TAZ level. This data set was supplemented by other sources of data to complete the commuting employment picture in the OKI region. Each zone's employment was divided according to the SIC code into three classes (retail, office, industrial) based upon the potential for generating trips. Future Year Data: For future year employment projection, calculation was first made of the employment at the regional level. At the regional level, employment is a calculation of the region's employed labor force minus workers who live in the region but commute out to work, plus workers who live outside the region but commute in to work. The regional total was disaggregated first to the county level based on historic trends and expected changes in the county's share of the region's employment 

## 11 OK!Ozone Mobile Source Emissions Inventory Using EPA MOVES, Apri/2012and then to the TAZ level. Disaggregation to TAZs was determined by historical trends, existing and future land use, topography, flood plain information, availability of land, local knowledge and other factors. 

## Area Type Base and Future Year Data: For each analysis year, each TAZ is assigned an area type designation as CBD, Urban, Suburban or Rural based on population and employment densities. 

### Model Calibration OKI's Travel Demand Model has been validated to observed traffic volumes for the model base year 2005. The modeling network encompasses the entire ozone Maintenance area with the exception of Clinton County, Ohio. The modeling network also includes Greene, Miami and Montgomery counties in Ohio and the remainder of Dearborn County Indiana. The difference between estimated vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and 2005 observed VMT is less than 1%. A highway screenline analysis compares the screenline observed and simulated traffic volume discrepancies with the ODOT standard of maximum desirable deviation. The compari son shows that the model performs at a satisfactory level and all the errors were under the ODOT curve. Further information can be found in OKI's 2007 report, "OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model Methodology/ Validation Report". For the calibration, OKI used over 3000 traffic counts collected through 2006 by the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT), the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, many county and loca l governments, transportation engineering consultants, and OKI. These traffic counts cover nearly 

### SO% percent ofthe links in the OKI portion of the modeling network. The methodology provides consistency with past emission inventory and conformity analysis work performed by OKI. 

### Local Inputs and Post-Model Processing OKI in corporates a variety of sources of local data to both improve and confirm the accuracy of VMT, as well as other travel-related parameters. Free flow speeds used on the highway and transit networks are based on travel time studies performed locally. The OKI post-processing program, IMPACT, uses the loaded highway network to generate VMT by hour, VMT by speed distribution and VMT by facility type. These tables are then included as input into MOVES. Two separate sets of VMT tables are generated: one for the four Ohio counties plus Dearborn County Indiana, and a second for the three Kentucky counties. The VMT by hour tables utilize hourly traffic distribution and directional split factors for different roadway types as developed by OKI. The main source of the data was the permanent traffic counting stations located throughout the OKI region for the years of 2004
-2006. This data was supplemented with data collected at coverage count stations (locations with counts taken on only onetwo days). The stations were classified by area type: urban and rural, and functional classification: freeway, arterial and collector. Speeds representing various "loaded" conditions (with traffic volumes) are estimated using techn iquesfrom the 1997 Highway Capacity Manual. This permits the estimation of speeds as conditions vary from hour to hour on the different facility types throughout the region. The IMPACT program performs the appropriate summation by area and roadway type as well as regional totals. OKI has also developed seasonal conversion factors to adjust traffic volumes to summer 

# 12 OKI Ozone Mobile Source Emissions Inventory Using EPA MOVES, AtJri/2012

### conditions. The factors were derived from local data collected at permanent traffic counting s tations during 1994-1997 utilizing the average daily traffic monthly conversion factors for June, July and August. Further information on OKI's IMPACT program is documented in the report, "Travel Demand Model Summary Reporting and Impact Summary Reporting: OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model User's Guide", OK/2003.



# 13 OK! Ozone Mobile Source Emissionslnventmy Using EPA MOVES,Apri/2012

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# Appendix B

Indiana Portion ofthe CincinnatiHamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area Interagency Consultation Group Meeting Minutes/Summary

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## Interagency Consultation Group (ICG) Conference Call Minutes

For the MOBILE6.2 to MOVES MVEB Replacement Update Related to the Indiana Portion ofthe Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Maintenance Area under the 1997 8"Hour Ozone Standard
ICG Conference Call Date and Time 

## • May 31,2012 at 9arn Eastern
ICG Attendees 

## • Shawn Seals (IDEM), Patricia Morris (EPA), Steve Smith (INDOT), Larry Heil (FHWA-Indiana), Greg Karter (INDOT), Jenifer Dines (OEPA), Erica Fetty (OEPA), Andy Reser (OK!), John Gowins (KYDAQ), and Leigh Oesterline (FHWA-Ohio)
ICG Discussion Topics and Conclusions 

## 1. For the Ozone MVEB Replacement submittal, mobile source margins ofsafety and minor rounding inconsistencies were discussed. A. 

## After discussion, the consensus ofthe ICG was that the 15% mobile source margin ofsafety for VOC and NOx emissions does not result in an exceedance ofthe all sources margins ofsafety, and is reasonable and appropriate for inclusion in MVEB Replacement submittal. The Indiana and Ohio submittals will include an MVEB that include onroad emissions for only these two states. The subsequent Kentucky submittal will include a separate MVEB for only Kentucky onroad emissions. The attached spreadsheet demonstrates that a 15% mobile source margin ofsafety for VOC and NOx emissions fall well below the all sources margins ofsafety and, as such, will be reflected in the Ozone MVEB Replacement submittal. B. It

## was noted that there are minor rounding differences between the source document (Version 2.12) for onroad emissions provided by OKI. The Indiana and Ohio MVEB replacement submittals will include values including two decimal points. These values will be totaled based on the two decimal point values and reflect mathematically accurate values.

B-1