# Sensitivity of Ballast LCC and Prback

Analysis to Four "Key ,'71

James E. McMahon
Technology and Market Assessment Group Energy Analysis Program 

# Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

# Sensitivity of Ballast LCC and Paybac Analysis to F our Key Inputs
James E. McMahon.

, Technology and Market Assessment Group

, Energy Analysis Program

. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

1

# I nput Param e t e r s o f LCC Analy s i s

2F40T 12 /E S L a mp/Ballast s

Changed: Inpu t P ara me ter P r ev io us Va l ue Cu r rent Val w-, (July 26 ,1996) (March 18,1997) 

## Lifetime of ballast (hours) 33,000 45,000 Relamp life (hours ), design option 1 (CC) 19,000 16,150 Labor rate ( s), electrician $42.10 $50.00



# Input Parameters of LCC Analysis 2F 40T 12IES LamplBallasts Changed: Input Parameter
Lifetime of ballast (hours) 

## Relamp life (hours), 

## design option 1 (CC) Labor rate ($), 

## electrician 

# Previous Value (July 26,1996) 

## 33,000 19,000 $42.10 

# Current Value (March 18,1997) 

## 45,000 16,150 $50.00



# 2

# Ke , 

# F

Variable Electricity price weighted by sales volume ($/kWh) A relative frequency table (IA 1995, 1996) 

## Inputs for Four Foot Lamp/ Ballast System: Annual operating hours An empirical proba b ili ty d ensi ty (hours/years) 

### B allast lifetime (hours) Ballast consumer price of 2F40T12/ES ($)

B allast co nsumer price of 2F32T8 ($) 

## (X AP, 1995) A standard'distri ution (Engineering Estimate) A set of standard distributions (Engineering Estimate) 

## Dlstrob"V(Mn F 11



### Tri( 2K , 4 5K , Tri(11:20, 12 . 44, 1 

## 4 .31) 

## Tri(16 .9 7, 1 8.86 , 2 1. 6 9) Tri(21. 7 1 , 28.94 , 30.3 9 ) 

## A set of standard distributions Tri(15.03, 16.70, 19.21) (Engineering Estimate)- Tri(19.57, 21.74, 2 5. 00 ) Tri(1.86,.1 , 30.60 ) Tri(21.5G, 28 .7, 30.1 0 ) 

# ey Input Variables an Their Distributions

Variable name Electricity price weighted by sales volume ($/kWh) 

## Distribution "and source
A relative frequency table (EIA 1995, 1996) Inputs for Four Foot LamplBallast System: 

### Annual operating hours An empirical probability density (hours/years) 

### (XENCAP, 1995) Ballast lifetime (hours) , 

### " Ballast consumer price

of 2F40T12/ES ($)



### Ballast consumer price of 2F32T8 ($) 

### " A standard "distribution " (Engineering Estimate ) 

### A set of standard distributions (Engineering Estimate)

A set of standard distributions (Engineering Estimate)" 

## Distribution parameters

Tri(2K, 45K, 80K)**Tri(11~20,** 

### 12.44, 14.31) Tri(16.97, 18.86, 21.69) Tri(21.71, 28.94, 30.39) Tri(15.03, 16.70, 19.21) Tri(19.57, 21.74,25.00) Tri(21.S6, 29.14, 30.60) Tri(21.50, 28.67, 30.10)


# 3 .

# Two , amp Balla s

F4OT 12/B 

# Two Lamp Ballast F40T12/ES

4

# Input Parameters of LCC Analysis

2F40T12/ES Lamp/Ballasts

Unchanged: Inp ut Pa r am eter 

# Current Value (March 18,1997) 

## Electricity price ($/kwh) $0.075 Annual lighting hours (hours) 4230 Ballast consumer price ($), baseline option (EEM) $12.44 

## Ballast consumer price ($), design option 1 (CC) $18.86 

## Ballast consumer price ($), design option 2 (ERS) $28.94 Discount rate 0.08 Labor , rate, electrician ' s helper $29.35 

## Lamp price ( both lamps, $) $3.28 

## Normalized fixture watts, baseline option (EEM) 72.7 

## Normalized fixture watts , design option 1 (CC) 65.6 Normalized fixture watts , design option 2 (ERS) 61.9 

## Relamp life (hours ), baseline option (EEM) 19,000 Relamp life (hours ), design option 2 (ERS) 19,000 

## Time to change ballast ( minutes) 30 

## Time to change lamp (minute) 23.5 

# Input Parameters of LCC Analysis 2F40T12/ES Lamp/Ballasts

Input Parameter Electricity price ($/kWh) 

### Annual lighting hours (hours) 

# Unchanged:

Ballast consumer price ($), 

### baseline option (EEM) Ballast consumer price ($), 

### design option 1 (CC) Ballast consumer price ($), 

### design option 2 (ERS) Discount rate Labor, rate, electrician's helper Lamp price (both lamps, $)

. . 

### Normalized fixture watts, baseline option (EEM) Normalized fixture.watts, design option 1 (CC) Normalized fixture watts, design option 2 (ERS) Relamp life (hours), 

### baseline option (EEM) Relamp life (hours), 

### design option 2 (ERS) Time to change ballast (minutes) 

### Time to change lamp (minute) 

# Current Value (March 

## 18,1997) $0.075 4230 $12.44 $18.86 $28.94 0.08 $29.35 $3.28 72.7 65.6 61.9 19,000 19,000 30 -23.5 

# 5

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# C u mulative Probab i lity

Electri ci ty P ri ce Less Th an ( j/ kWhj Percent of Sales 0.02 

# 0.1% 0.04 

# 2.0 % 

# 0.06 21% 

# 0.08 .73% 0.10 

# 94 % 

# 0.12 99. 4 % 0.14 

# 99
. 

# 6 % 

# 0.16 1 

# 00 % 

# Cumulative Probability Table

Electricity Price Less Than ($/kWh) 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 

# Percent of Sales 0.1% 2.0% 21% 73% 94%

. 99.4% 99.6%

. 100%



# 7

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# . Figure' 3A.. TOTAL 

# Lee CHANGE ($): 

# Two Lamp**F40~121ES** 

# Net Savings or' Net 

# Costs Depend on Electricity -Price

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# e2 lc^V<X /^^ Figure

For CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $0.036/kWh for 99% of Electricity Sales For ERS

- EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $0.052 / kWh for 91% of Electricity Sales 0



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# Figure 3B. For CC·EEM, Net 

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# Payback by Percent of Commercial E1 ctricity ales**Pa~back** 

# Less Than {)irs} CC-EEM
- ERS**~EEM** 

# 2 0.20/0 0% 4 36% 140/0 6 870/0 780/0 8 970/0 97% 10 98% 98% 

# 12 99°/0 99%

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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Annual Lighting Hours ( Ophr It) (Hours/year) 9000 9000 

# Ballast Annual Lighting Hours in U.S. Commercial Stock (four foot lamp)

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## Figure
For 

### CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1250 Hours/Year for 

### 96% of Ballasts For 

### ERS -EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1750 

### Hours/Year for 

### 90 % of 

### Ballasts

------------



### 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 

### Lighting Hours (Hours/year)



# R, k-, Figure 7B.
For CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1250 HourslYear for 96% of Ballasts Net Savings Occur Above 1750 HourslYear for 90% of Ballasts
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### Lighting Hours (Hours/year)

# ayback by 'of U.S. Ball-

(based on distribution of annual lighting hours) 

# Co m 

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2 4 6

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# % % 

# 17% 74% 58 % 89 % 94 % 9 1% %



# 10 

# Payback by Percent 

# ofU. . allasts in Comm'ercial tock (based on distribution of annual lighting hours)

'Pa)iback Less Than {)irs} CC-EEM ERS

.. EEM 

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## PAYBACK

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# L ifetime (a= Ballast

(four foot lamp)

10K 20K 30K 40K 50K 60K 70K 80K

Lifetime of ballast (Blife) (hours)



# 11 

# Lifetime of Ballast (four foot lamp)

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o o 10K 20K 30K 40K 50K 60K 70K 80K Lifetime of ballast (Blife) (hours)



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# Two Lamp 3 a lla F32 T 8 

# Two Lamp Ballast F32T8

12

# Input Param e t e r s of LCC Anal ys i s

2F3 2T8 Lamp/Balla s t s Inp ut Pa ra m eter Cu r rent Annual lighting hours (hours) Ballast consumer price ($), baseline option (EEM) Ballast consumer price ($), design option 1 (CC) Ballast consumer price ($), design option 2 (ERS) Ballast consumer price ($), design option 3 (EIS) Discount rate 

## Electricity price ($/kWh) Labor rate , electrician's helper Labor rate, electrician Lamp price ( both lamps, $) 

## Lifetime of ballast ( hours) Normalized fixture watts , baseline option (EEM) Normalized fixture watts, design option 1 (CC) Normalized fixture watts , design option 2 (ERS) Normalized fixture watts , design option 3 (EIS) Relamp life ( hours ), baseline option (EEM) Relamp life ( hours ), design option 1 (CC) Relamp life (hours), design option 2 (ERS) Relamp life (hours ), design option 3 (EIS) Time to change ballast ( minutes) 

## Time to change lamp (minutes) (March 18,1997) 4230 $16.70 $21.74 $29.14 $28.67 0.08 $0.075 $29.35 $50.00 $3.28 45,000 74.2 69.4 65.3 63.0 191000 16,150 , 19,000 14,000 30 23.5 

# 1 3 

# Input Parameters of LCC Analysis 2F32T8 LamplBallasts Input Parameter
Annual lighting hours (hours) 

### Ballast consumer price ($), 

### baseline option (EEM) Ballast consumer price ($), 

### design option 1 (CC) Ballast consumer price ($), 

### design option 2 (ERS) Ballast consumer price ($), 

### design option 3 (EIS) Discount rate Electricity price ($/kWh) 

### Labor rate, electrician's helper Labor rate, electrician Lamp price (both lamps, $) 

### Lifetime of ballast (hours) 

### Normalized fixture watts, baseline option (EEM) Normalized fixture watts, design option 1 (CC) Normalized fixture watts, design option 2 (ERS) Normalized fixture watts, design option 3 (EIS) Relamp life (hours), 

### baseline option (EEM) Relamp life (hours), 

### design option 1 (CC) Relamp life (hours), 

### design option 2 (ERS) Relamp life (hours), 

### design option 3 (EIS) Time to change ballast (minutes) 

### Time to change lamp (minutes) 

# Current Value (March 18,1997) 4230 $16.70 $21.74 $29.14 $28.67 0.08 $0.075 $29.35 $50.00 $3.28 45,000 74.2 69.4 65.3 63.0 19,000 16,150 19,000 14,000 30 23.5 

# 13

# 1 4 

# Payback by Percent of Commercial Electricity .
Pa)lback Less Than ()l,rs} 

# CC

.. EEM ER.S om 

# EEM 

# 2 0% 0% 4 

# 14% 20% 6 40% 87% 8 78% 98% 10 90% 

# 98% 12 94% 

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# 14% 55% 87% 100%

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For CC-EEM,' Net Savings Occur Above $0.047/kWh for 95% of Electricity Sales For ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $0.047/kWh for 95% of Electricity Sales For EIS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $0.065/kWh for 56% of Electricity Sales

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# G I Ali; Statistics $/kWh Max 10.1443 Mean - 0.0759 Median 0.0696 Min 0.0162 Std. Dev. 0.0215

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### Electricity Price ($/KWH)



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# ;) F 3-:2T'2 Figure 16B. For For For CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $O.047/kWh for 95% of Electricity Sales ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $O.047IkWh Cor 95% of Electricity Sales EIS-EEM, Net Sayings Occur Above $O.065/kWh for 56% of Electricity Sales 

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# Payback by Percent of U. . allasts in Commercial tock (based on distribution of annual lighting hours).**Pa~back** 

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15

## Figure 1

For CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1600 Hours /Year for 94% of Ballasts For ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1600 Hours /Year for 94 % of Ballasts For EIS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above2000 Hours /Year for 88 % of Ballasts 3 0 0 u T--.-:-....- ...................... ---------- . . .... ..... . : ......... ...... ......... ..
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# Ballasts in Commercial Stock (based on increm"ental ballast price)

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For ERS EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 22ooo Hours for 87% of Ballasts For EIS EEM, Net Savings Occur for 79% of Ballasts

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# CC EEM, Net 

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## Lifetime of BaHas't (Hours),Q 

## 2-87A Probability Density of TOTAL LCC CHANGE ( Tlcc_change) ($)

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0.21

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1995,2000 = 7.5%,0% Low conversion AE097 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% Medium conversion GR196 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% Medium conversion AE097 1995,2000 = 7.5%,20% High conversion GR196 1995,2000 = 7.5%,20% High conversion AE097 Quads , primary

N W O O

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### os; ('111 

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# tj V?JtJ CCJ 

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..... 1995,2000 

### = 7.5%,0% Low conversion AE097 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5%

Medium conversion GRI96 1995,2000 

### = 7.5%,7.5%

Medium conversion AE097 1995,2000 

### = 7.5%,20% High conversion GRI96 1995,2000 

### = 7.5%,20% High conversion AE097 o

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### NET PRESENT VALUE

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 -iI I I r r i

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 EIAEO97 Medium conversion 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5%

Page 1 >R. 0 I'- @wc .2 III Chart3 NPV

NET PRESENT 

### VALUE**4.0-~------------------~--------~--~--~~~~----~---------, 3.0-t-,...,;~~-.,...;,** 

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Page 1 IIAE097 Medium conversion 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5%CUM ENERGY

PRIMARY ENERGY SAVINGS, 2000-2030 CUMULATIVE IN DESCENDING ORDER

SCENARIO 3: Electricity price: AE097 SCENARIO 5: SCENARIO 2: GR196 AEO97 SCENARIO 4: SCENARIO 1: G R 196 AEO97 Low conversion Medium conversion Medium conversion High conversion High conversion 1995,2000 = 7.5%,0% 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 1995,2000 = 7.5%,20°i 1995,2000 = 7.5%,20% Level 1 2.7 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 Level 2 5.1 3.4 3.3 2.7 2.6 Level 3 5.3 3.5 3.4 2.6 2.6 Level 4 5.5 3.7 3.6 2.9 2.8
NET PRESENT VALUE SCENARIO 2: (Billion $ @ 7%) AEO97 Medium conversion 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% Level 1 1.1 Level 2 3.5 Level 3 3.3 Level 4 3.4

Page 1 PRIMARY ENERGY SAVINGS, 2000-2030 CUMULATIVE IN DESCENDING ORDER SCENARIO 3: Electricity price: AE097
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Low conversion 1995,2000 =: 7.5%,0% 2.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 SCENARIO 5: GRI96 Medium conversion 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 1.6 3.4 3.5 3.7 NET PRESENT VALUE (Billion $ @ 7%)
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 CUM ENERGY

SCENARIO 2: AE097 Medium conversion 1995,2000 

### = 7.5%,7.5% 1.6 3.3 3.4 3.6 SCENARIO 2: AE097 Medium conversion 1995,2000 

### = 7.5%,7.5%

Page 1 1.1 3.5 3.3 3.4 SCENARIO 4: SCENARIO 1: GRI96 AE097 High conversion High conversion 1995,2000 

### = 7.5%,20'J. 1995,2000 

### = 7.5%,20% 1.0 1.0 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.8