EE-RM/STD-98-440 // .. EE-tM/57D - 7 _-o

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## Naiuna l Employment Impacts: 

# Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps Jim McMahon JEMcMahon@lbl .gov 

### Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy Workshop on Standards for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps December 9, 1999 k ' ~~~~~~~IL •
... ..- EE-RM/STD-98-440 / 

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## E:mployment Impacts: 

# Central Air Conditioners 

# and Heat Pumps

--,--- -_.,._-'" .------ '-'--**--~--** Jim McMahon JEMcMahon@lbl.gov Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy Workshop on Standards for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps December 9, 1999 m r;n :u**~** 

## a 

# IEE-RM/STD-98-440 

## Net National Employment Impacts:
Vnefinitinn A__ __ _ __; _ _ ___ *m___ _= ___ ___ rrrrrrq _; 

### Possible standards could affect consumer spending intwo ways:

- increase purchase price of regulated products

- decrease consumer energy expenditures 

### * Direct employment impacts will be analyzed in detail inthe manufacturer impact analysis * Net national employment impacts are netjobs created or eliminated inthe U.S. economy as a consequence of new energy efficiency standards

C__ ----entral A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts ---- t· , .. EE-RM/STD-98-440 . IL/ Jj 

## Net National Employment Impacts:**n~finitinn** __**~** • •• • .... "IIIIIr. •**~~ -------.~-** **~**

. - -.- .. _.. ----.-**----:"'-~'---** -_._-**-~.......::..---.-** • Possible standards could affect consumer spending in two ways:

- increase purchase price of regulated products

- decrease consumer energy expenditures - .

• Direct employment impacts will be analyzed in detail in the manufacturer impact analysis • Net national employment impacts are netjobs created or eliminated in the U.S. economy as 

## a consequence of new energy efficiency standards

,.__..__**,~=~="c -c,,~=c_._** **·-_~·c~c-"** =c. Central AlC and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts .....-...... 2EE-RM/STD-98-440 I 

## Background and approach

I __: = _____. _ _ _. :.: _, ____ 

### Residential total energy expenditures in 1995 were: $129 

### billion (EIASEPER)

- electricity $87 billion natural gas $29 billion

- distillate $ 6 billion LPG $ 4 billion 

### New energy efficiency standards are expected to reduce energy expenditures, usually offsetting projected increases inequipment prices over time. An input/output model estimates the effects on various sectors of the economy from the changes inconsumer spending.

____-- -. ___.- ... = Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts -- , . EE-RM/STD-98-440 I '-I II



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## aImi1"'- • Residential total energy expenditures in 1995 were: $129 billion (EIA SEPER)

- electricity $87 billion

- distillate $ 6 billion natural gas $29 billion LPG $ 4 billion • New energy efficiency standards are expected to reduce energy expenditures, usually offsetting projected increases in equipment prices over time. • An input/output model estimates the effects on - various sectors ofthe economy from the changes in consumer spending.**=---,-"---------~-.-** -- --- - -.,-**-=-~-~---** - -**."'~** Central Ale and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts
-=-- ..-·....**-=--~-3=**EE-RM/STD-98-440 I
- 

## MODEL: IMBUILD _A ......- _._ _ _ _ _ ____ Irrri 

### Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed spreadsheet model for DOE in 1998 Characterized U.S. economy as interconnections among 35 sectors (national input/output structural matrices) INPUT: shifts inexpenditures due to standards (equipment and energy expenditures from National Energy Savings analysis) OUTPUT: change inemployment by sector as a consequence of new standards

- ------ = -.......- -- -- Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts - ..

... EE_RM/STO-98-440 I'-I 11· 

## MODEL: IMBUIL.D
• Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed spreadsheet model for DOE in 1998 • Characterized U.S. economy as interconnections among 35 sectors (national input/output structural matrices) • INPUT: shifts in expenditures due to standards (equipment and energy expenditures from National Energy Savings analysis) • OUTPUT: change in employment by sector as a consequence of new standards

- .. -..**~-~** Central AlC and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts =- ..... - .-.'

4EE-RM/STD-98-4401 q II 

# Pnssible employment impacts A w;·I '''' ~ w * -rrrrrrr] 

### Employment by manufacturers of regulated equipment, and their suppliers, may change Reduced spending for energy and water may cause reductions inemployment inthe energy and water supply sectors Shifting spending away from energy toward other sectors may create jobs inother sectors Netjob creation or elimination will be estimated

------ Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts - .-- ..

. , ,. EE-RM/STO-98-440( Y II

### Pn~~ibl.e. 

## emolovment imD3cts

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### • Employment by manufacturers of regulated equipment, and their suppliers, may change • Reduced spending for energy and water may cause reductions in employment in the energy and water supply sectors • Shifting spending away from energy toward other sectors may create jobs in other sectors • Net job creation or elimination will be estimated**-=-=-~---.~~~- ~-.-'c=-~.**  -. Central AlC and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts--- S