DRAFT

Gas Furnace Regional Energy Impacts

Author: Michael McNeil

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

COLOR SCHEME

Extrapolation

Input from Engineering and LCC Analysis

WORKSHEET DESCRIPTION

National Impacts Summary Tables and Charts of Primary Energy Savings and Financial Impacts for All Product Classes

Shipments Summary Tables and Charts of Shipments Forecast for All Product Classes

NES Gas Furnace -NW Calculation of Primary Energy Savings and Financial Impacts for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Base Case Shipments Calculation of Base Case Shipments for all Product Classes

Change in Shipments Impacts of Standards on Market Shares in New Housing 

New Housing Market Share Historic Data and Forecast of Market Shares in New Housing

Market Share Model Determination of Elasticities for New Housing Market Share Forecast

Regional Housing and Fuel Price Historical Data and Forecast for Analyzing Regions Separately

Historic Market Shares Data Historic Heating Fuel and Equipment Data for New Homes

LCC Inputs Design Option Input Data: Associated Costs and Unit Energy Consumption

Retirement Function Probability Function Determining Replacement of Equipment

New Housing Forecast Forecast of New Housing

Fuel Prices and Heat Rates Forecasts of Energy Prices and Site-Source Conversion Factors

Market Shift Heating Load Calculation of Heating Load of Housing Likely to Shift Away from Gas in Standards Cases

Price Indices Equipment and Energy Price Indices used in Determination of Price Elasticities for Market Share Forecast

Chart GF Shipments Chart of Historical Gas Furnace Shipments and Modeled Shipments

Chart GF Market Share Chart of Historical Market Share - Historical and Model Forecast

Chart NWGF Finanical Impacts Charts of Incremental Equipment Costs, Operating Cost Savings and Net Savings for Gas Furnaces

0900006480fa5bd8.xls Julie Osborn 1/26/20124:38 PM
DRAFT

rgy Price Indices used in Determination of Price Elasticities for Market Share Forecast

0900006480fa5bd8.xls Julie Osborn 1/26/20124:38 PM
NES Furnace Regional Analysis Spreadsheet Flow Chart

Historic Market 

LCC Inputs Shares Data

NES - Product 

Class

Base Case 

Shipments

Historical data and 

User input 

worksheets

NES model and 

accounting 

worksheet 

engines 

Fuel Prices and 

Heat Rates

National 

Impacts 

Summary

Data output and 

Summary 

worksheets 

Shipments 

Summary

preadsheet Flow Chart

Regional Housing Retirement 

and Fuel Price

New Housing 

Market Share

Change in 

Shipments

Base Case 

Shipments

Market Share 

Model

Base Case 

Consumption



DRAFT

Discount Rate 7% Reference Case 1

Current Year 2005 Low Economic Growth 3

Economic Growth High Economic Growth

REGION Cold States 1

Warm States

Source Energy Savings Matrix (Quads) Net Present Value Matrix (Billions $2004)

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Gas Furnace - Non Weatherized 0.009 0.009 0.153 1.327 2.395 Gas Furnace - Non Weatherized 0.019 0.019 0.038 0.200 -5.773

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace

BASE TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Design

78% AFUE - 

Baseline

80% AFUE - 

Increased 

HXArea

80% AFUE - 

Increased 

HXArea

81% AFUE - 

Increased HX 

Area

90% AFUE

96% AFUE - 

Modulation 

(Continuous)

Shipments 2015-2038 (Millions) 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29 35.29

Incremental Costs ($ Billions) 0.00 0.00 1.29 11.73 49.92

Operating Cost Savings ($ Billions) 0.16 0.16 2.85 24.61 44.78

Net Savings, not discounted ($ Billions) 0.16 0.16 1.55 12.88 -5.15

Net Present Value ($ Billions) 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.20 -5.77

Source Savings 2015- 2038 (Quads) 0.01 0.01 0.15 1.33 2.39

National Impacts Summary

STANDARD LEVEL

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

$Billions

Quads

National Impacts - Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace

Source Energy Savings (Quads)

Net Present Value (Billions)

Reference Case

Cold States

0900006480fa5bd8.xls 1/26/2012
Shipments - Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace + Weatherized Gas Furnac

2010 1.58 72.7% 1.150 3.08

Base 70.7% 1.086 4.61

TSL 1 70.7% 1.086 4.61

TSL 2 70.7% 1.086 4.61

TSL 3 70.5% 1.082 4.61

TSL 4 68.7% 1.055 4.61

Shipments Summary - Mobile Home Gas Furnace

Year

2010 0.241 72.7% 0.175 0.091

Replacements

Shipments Summary

2020

1.54

New Housing

Year Completions

Gas Furnace 

Share Total

New Placements

Replacements

MH 

Placements

Gas Furnace 

Share Total

2010 0.241 72.7% 0.175 0.091

2020

Base 63.3% 0.112 0.066

Trial Standard Level 1 63.0% 0.111 0.066

Trial Standard Level 2 63.0% 0.111 0.066

Trial Standard Level 3 63.0% 0.111 0.066

Trial Standard Level 4 62.8% 0.111 0.066

Shipments - Oil Furnace + Gas Boiler + Oil Boiler

M.S. % 2020 2030 2020

Oil Furnaces 0.5% 0.007 0.007 0.081

Gas Boilers 4.1% 0.063 0.065 0.101

Oil Boilers 1.8% 0.027 0.028 0.128

0.177

New Housing Total Shipments
Oil Hot Water Boiler

BASE TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3

Design Base Case

83% AFUEIncreasedHXA

rea

83% AFUEIncreasedHX

Area

83% AFUEIncreasedHXAre

a

Shipments 2015-2038 (Millions) 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72

Net Savings, not discounted ($ Billions) 0.21 0.21 0.21

Net Present Value ($ Billions) 0.024 0.02 0.02

Source Savings 2015- 2038 (Quads) 0.011 0.011 0.011

DESIGN OPTION

zed Gas Furnace

0.16 5.32

6.80

6.80

6.80

6.80

6.80

0.164

Conversions

0.18

Total

Total

0.0 

1.0 

2.0 

3.0 

4.0 

5.0 

2001 2011 2021

Millions

Gas Furnace Shipments

Conversions

New Housing

Replacements

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

2001 2011 2021

Millions

Oil Furnace Shipments

New Housing

Replacements Less Conversions

0.60 Gas Boiler Shipments

Conversions 0.164

0.123

0.123

0.123

0.120

0.112

2030

0.065

0.100

0.094

Total Shipments

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

2001 2011 2021

Millions

Gas Boiler Shipments

Conversions

New Housing

Replacements

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

2001 2011 2021

Millions

Oil Boiler Shipments

New Housing

Replacements Less Conversions
TSL 4

84% AFUEIncreasedHXAr

ea

2.72

0.21

-0.01

0.023

2031

2031

2031

2031
Shipments (Millions) Remaining Stock 

(Millions)

AFUE of Shipments 

(Percent)

UEC of Shipments 

(MMBtu)

NWGF NWGF NWGF NWGF

2015 0.87 25.72 85.3 66.0

2016 0.91 25.61 85.3 66.0

2017 0.97 25.51 85.3 66.0

2018 1.04 25.44 85.3 66.0

2019 1.13 25.39 85.3 66.0

2020 1.22 25.38 85.3 66.0

2021 1.31 25.40 85.3 66.0

2022 1.40 25.47 85.3 66.0

2023 1.49 25.57 85.3 66.0

2024 1.58 25.72 85.3 66.0

2025 1.65 25.91 85.3 66.0

2026 1.70 26.13 85.3 66.0

2027 1.74 26.39 85.3 66.0

2028 1.75 26.67 85.3 66.0

2029 1.76 26.97 85.3 66.0

2030 1.75 27.29 85.3 66.0

2031 1.73 27.62 85.3 66.0

2032 1.70 27.95 85.3 66.0

2033 1.67 28.30 85.3 66.0

2034 1.63 28.64 85.3 66.0

2035 1.59 28.96 85.3 66.0

2036 1.57 29.27 85.3 66.0

2037 1.56 29.56 85.3 66.0

2038 1.56 29.84 85.3 66.0

Total

2015-2038 35.3 644.7 2,048.1 1,583.8

Base Case Consumption
Source Energy 

(Quads)

NWGF

1.84

1.83

1.82

1.81

1.81

1.80

1.80

1.81

1.81

1.82

1.84

1.85

1.87

1.89

1.91

1.93

1.96

1.98

2.00

2.03

2.05

2.07

2.09

2.11

45.7
Shipments Affected Stock Avg UEC of 

Shipments

UEC Stock Shipments Affected Stock Avg UEC of 

Shipments

Avg UEC of 

Stock

Gas Efficiency, 

Site Savings

Elec, Eff. Site 

Savings

Market Shift 

from Gas

Market Shift 

to Elec

Total Primary

Savings

Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh Quads

2015 0.874 0.00 66.0 65.99 0.874 0.00 66.0 65.97 0.00000 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000

2016 0.913 0.87 66.0 65.99 0.913 0.87 66.0 65.97 0.00002 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000

2017 0.971 1.79 66.0 65.99 0.971 1.79 66.0 65.97 0.00004 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000

2018 1.044 2.76 66.0 65.99 1.044 2.76 66.0 65.97 0.00006 0.001 0.00000 0.000 0.0001

2019 1.128 3.80 66.0 65.99 1.128 3.80 66.0 65.97 0.00008 0.001 0.00000 0.000 0.0001

2020 1.219 4.93 66.0 65.99 1.219 4.93 66.0 65.97 0.00011 0.001 0.00000 0.000 0.0001

2021 1.310 6.15 66.0 65.99 1.310 6.15 66.0 65.97 0.00013 0.001 0.00000 0.000 0.0002

2022 1.403 7.46 66.0 65.99 1.403 7.46 66.0 65.97 0.00016 0.001 0.00000 0.000 0.0002

2023 1.494 8.86 66.0 65.99 1.494 8.86 66.0 65.97 0.00019 0.002 0.00000 0.000 0.0002

2024 1.579 10.36 66.0 65.99 1.579 10.36 66.0 65.97 0.00022 0.002 0.00000 0.000 0.0003

2025 1.651 11.93 66.0 65.99 1.651 11.93 66.0 65.97 0.00026 0.002 0.00000 0.000 0.0003

2026 1.703 13.58 66.0 65.99 1.703 13.58 66.0 65.97 0.00029 0.003 0.00000 0.000 0.0003

2027 1.738 15.25 66.0 65.99 1.738 15.25 66.0 65.97 0.00033 0.003 0.00000 0.000 0.0004

2028 1.755 16.94 66.0 65.99 1.755 16.94 66.0 65.97 0.00037 0.003 0.00000 0.000 0.0004

2029 1.757 18.60 66.0 65.99 1.757 18.60 66.0 65.97 0.00040 0.004 0.00000 0.000 0.0005

2030 1.748 20.22 66.0 65.99 1.748 20.22 66.0 65.97 0.00044 0.004 0.00000 0.000 0.0005

2031 1.729 21.76 66.0 65.99 1.729 21.76 66.0 65.97 0.00047 0.004 0.00000 0.000 0.0005

2032 1.700 23.21 66.0 65.99 1.700 23.21 66.0 65.97 0.00050 0.004 0.00000 0.000 0.0006

2033 1.666 24.55 66.0 65.99 1.666 24.55 66.0 65.97 0.00053 0.005 0.00000 0.000 0.0006

Trial Standard Level 1

Gas Furnace - Non Weatherized

Base Case

Shipments & Stock Energy Savings

2033 1.666 24.55 66.0 65.99 1.666 24.55 66.0 65.97 0.00053 0.005 0.00000 0.000 0.0006

2034 1.627 25.74 66.0 65.99 1.627 25.74 66.0 65.97 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 0.000 0.0006

2035 1.589 26.78 66.0 65.99 1.589 26.78 66.0 65.97 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 0.000 0.0007

2036 1.567 27.66 66.0 65.99 1.567 27.66 66.0 65.97 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 0.000 0.0007

2037 1.558 28.40 66.0 65.99 1.558 28.40 66.0 65.97 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 0.000 0.0007

2038 1.564 29.02 66.0 65.99 1.564 29.02 66.0 65.97 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 0.000 0.0007

2039 29.53 65.99 29.53 65.97 0.0006 0.006 0.0000 0.000 0.0007

2040 28.38 65.99 28.38 65.97 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 0.000 0.0007

2041 27.12 65.99 27.12 65.97 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 0.000 0.0007

2042 25.77 65.99 25.77 65.97 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 0.000 0.0006

2043 24.34 65.99 24.34 65.97 0.0005 0.005 0.0000 0.000 0.0006

2044 22.84 65.99 22.84 65.97 0.0005 0.004 0.0000 0.000 0.0006

2045 21.30 65.99 21.30 65.97 0.0005 0.004 0.0000 0.000 0.0005

2046 19.71 65.99 19.71 65.97 0.0004 0.004 0.0000 0.000 0.0005

2047 18.08 65.99 18.08 65.97 0.0004 0.003 0.0000 0.000 0.0004

2048 16.43 65.99 16.43 65.97 0.0004 0.003 0.0000 0.000 0.0004

2049 14.77 65.99 14.77 65.97 0.0003 0.003 0.0000 0.000 0.0004

2050 13.12 65.99 13.12 65.97 0.0003 0.002 0.0000 0.000 0.0003

2051 11.49 65.99 11.49 65.97 0.0002 0.002 0.0000 0.000 0.0003

2052 9.92 65.99 9.92 65.97 0.0002 0.002 0.0000 0.000 0.0002

2053 8.42 65.99 8.42 65.97 0.0002 0.002 0.0000 0.000 0.0002
2054 7.02 65.99 7.02 65.97 0.0002 0.001 0.0000 0.000 0.0002

2055 5.72 65.99 5.72 65.97 0.0001 0.001 0.0000 0.000 0.0001

2056 4.54 65.99 4.54 65.97 0.0001 0.001 0.0000 0.000 0.0001

2057 3.51 65.99 3.51 65.97 0.0001 0.001 0.0000 0.000 0.0001

2058 2.62 65.99 2.62 65.97 0.0001 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0001

2059 1.90 65.99 1.90 65.97 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

2060 1.32 65.99 1.32 65.97 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

2061 0.88 65.99 0.88 65.97 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

2062 0.55 65.99 0.55 65.97 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

2063 0.31 65.99 0.31 65.97 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

2064 0.16 65.99 0.16 65.97 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

2065 0.06 65.99 0.06 65.97 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

2066 0.02 65.99 0.02 65.97 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000
Operating 

Cost Savings

Equipment 

Cost

Maintenance 

Cost Net Savings Net Present Value Shipments Affected Stock Avg UEC of 

Shipments

Avg UEC of 

Stock

Gas Efficiency 

Site Savings

Elec, Eff. Site 

Savings

Market Shift 

from Gas

Market Shift to 

Elec

Total Primary

Savings

Billions $2001 Billions 

$2001 Billions $2001 Billions $2001

Billions 

$2001 Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh Quads

$0.00 -$0.00010 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.87 0.00 66.0 65.97 0.00000 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000

$0.00 -$0.00010 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.91 0.87 66.0 65.97 0.00002 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

$0.00 -$0.00011 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.97 1.79 66.0 65.97 0.00004 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

$0.00 -$0.00012 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 1.04 2.76 66.0 65.97 0.00006 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0001

$0.00 -$0.00013 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.13 3.80 66.0 65.97 0.00008 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0001

$0.00 -$0.00014 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.22 4.93 66.0 65.97 0.00011 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0001

$0.00 -$0.00015 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.31 6.15 66.0 65.97 0.00013 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0002

$0.00 -$0.00016 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.40 7.46 66.0 65.97 0.00016 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0002

$0.00 -$0.00017 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 1.49 8.86 66.0 65.97 0.00019 0.002 0.0000 0.00 0.0002

$0.00 -$0.00018 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 1.58 10.36 66.0 65.97 0.00022 0.002 0.0000 0.00 0.0003

$0.00 -$0.00019 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 1.65 11.93 66.0 65.97 0.00026 0.002 0.0000 0.00 0.0003

$0.00 -$0.00019 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 1.70 13.58 66.0 65.97 0.00029 0.003 0.0000 0.00 0.0003

$0.00 -$0.00020 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 1.74 15.25 66.0 65.97 0.00033 0.003 0.0000 0.00 0.0004

$0.00 -$0.00020 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 1.75 16.94 66.0 65.97 0.00037 0.003 0.0000 0.00 0.0004

$0.00 -$0.00020 $0.0000 $0.004 $0.00 1.76 18.60 66.0 65.97 0.00040 0.004 0.0000 0.00 0.0005

$0.00 -$0.00020 $0.0000 $0.004 $0.00 1.75 20.22 66.0 65.97 0.00044 0.004 0.0000 0.00 0.0005

$0.00 -$0.00020 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 1.73 21.76 66.0 65.97 0.00047 0.004 0.0000 0.00 0.0005

$0.01 -$0.00019 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 1.70 23.21 66.0 65.97 0.00050 0.004 0.0000 0.00 0.0006

$0.01 -$0.00019 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 1.67 24.55 66.0 65.97 0.00053 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0006

Energy Savings

Trial Standard Level 2

Net Present Value Shipments & Stock

$0.01 -$0.00019 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 1.67 24.55 66.0 65.97 0.00053 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0006

$0.01 -$0.00019 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 1.63 25.74 66.0 65.97 0.00055 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0006

$0.01 -$0.00018 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 1.59 26.78 66.0 65.97 0.00058 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0007

$0.01 -$0.00018 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 1.57 27.66 66.0 65.97 0.00060 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0007

$0.01 -$0.00018 $0.0000 $0.007 $0.00 1.56 28.40 66.0 65.97 0.00061 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0007

$0.01 -$0.00018 $0.0000 $0.007 $0.00 1.56 29.02 66.0 65.97 0.00063 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0007

$0.01 $0.0000 $0.007 $0.00 29.53 65.97 0.00064 0.006 0.0000 0.00 0.0007

$0.01 $0.0000 $0.007 $0.00 28.38 65.97 0.00061 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0007

$0.01 $0.0000 $0.007 $0.00 27.12 65.97 0.00058 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0007

$0.01 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 25.77 65.97 0.00056 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0006

$0.01 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 24.34 65.97 0.00052 0.005 0.0000 0.00 0.0006

$0.01 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 22.84 65.97 0.00049 0.004 0.0000 0.00 0.0006

$0.01 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 21.30 65.97 0.00046 0.004 0.0000 0.00 0.0005

$0.01 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 19.71 65.97 0.00042 0.004 0.0000 0.00 0.0005

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 18.08 65.97 0.00039 0.003 0.0000 0.00 0.0004

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.004 $0.00 16.43 65.97 0.00035 0.003 0.0000 0.00 0.0004

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.004 $0.00 14.77 65.97 0.00032 0.003 0.0000 0.00 0.0004

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 13.12 65.97 0.00028 0.002 0.0000 0.00 0.0003

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 11.49 65.97 0.00025 0.002 0.0000 0.00 0.0003

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 9.92 65.97 0.00021 0.002 0.0000 0.00 0.0002

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 8.42 65.97 0.00018 0.002 0.0000 0.00 0.0002
$0.00 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 7.02 65.97 0.00015 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0002

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 5.72 65.97 0.00012 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0001

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 4.54 65.97 0.00010 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0001

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 3.51 65.97 0.00008 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0001

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 2.62 65.97 0.00006 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0001

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.90 65.97 0.00004 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 1.32 65.97 0.00003 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.88 65.97 0.00002 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.55 65.97 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.31 65.97 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.16 65.97 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.06 65.97 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

$0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.02 65.97 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000
Operating 

Cost 

Savings

Equipment 

Cost

Maintenance 

Cost Net Savings Net Present Value Shipments Affected Stock Avg UEC of 

Shipments

Avg UEC of 

Stock

Gas 

Efficiency 

Site Savings

Elec, Eff. 

Site Savings

Market Shift 

from Gas

Market Shift 

to Elec

Total 

Primary

Savings

Operating 

Cost 

Savings

Billions 

$2001

Billions 

$2001 Billions $2001 Billions $2001 Billions $2001 Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh Quads Billions $2001

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.00 0.87 0.00 65.6 65.61 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 $0.00

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.91 0.87 65.6 65.61 0.0003 0.0030 0.0000 -0.0013 0.0004 $0.00

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.97 1.79 65.6 65.61 0.0007 0.0061 0.0000 -0.0026 0.0008 $0.01

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 1.04 2.76 65.6 65.61 0.0011 0.0094 0.0000 -0.0038 0.0012 $0.01

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 1.13 3.80 65.6 65.61 0.0015 0.0129 0.0000 -0.0050 0.0017 $0.01

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 1.22 4.93 65.6 65.61 0.0019 0.0168 0.0000 -0.0063 0.0022 $0.02

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 1.31 6.15 65.6 65.61 0.0024 0.0209 0.0000 -0.0076 0.0027 $0.02

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 1.40 7.46 65.6 65.61 0.0029 0.0254 0.0001 -0.0088 0.0033 $0.03

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 1.494 8.86 65.6 65.61 0.0034 0.0301 0.0001 -0.0101 0.0039 $0.03

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 1.58 10.35 65.6 65.61 0.0040 0.0352 0.0001 -0.0114 0.0045 $0.04

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 1.65 11.93 65.6 65.61 0.0046 0.0406 0.0001 -0.0127 0.0052 $0.04

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 1.70 13.57 65.6 65.61 0.0052 0.0462 0.0001 -0.0140 0.0059 $0.05

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 1.74 15.25 65.6 65.61 0.0059 0.0519 0.0001 -0.0153 0.0067 $0.06

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 1.75 16.93 65.6 65.61 0.0065 0.0576 0.0001 -0.0165 0.0074 $0.07

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 1.76 18.60 65.6 65.61 0.0071 0.0633 0.0001 -0.0178 0.0081 $0.07

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 1.75 20.21 65.6 65.61 0.0078 0.0688 0.0001 -0.0191 0.0088 $0.08

$0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 1.73 21.76 65.6 65.61 0.0084 0.0740 0.0001 -0.0203 0.0095 $0.09

$0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 1.70 23.21 65.6 65.61 0.0089 0.0790 0.0001 -0.0216 0.0102 $0.09

$0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 1.666 24.54 65.6 65.61 0.0094 0.0835 0.0001 -0.0229 0.0107 $0.10

Trial Standard Level 3

Net Present Value Shipments & Stock Energy Savings

$0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 1.666 24.54 65.6 65.61 0.0094 0.0835 0.0001 -0.0229 0.0107 $0.10

$0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 1.63 25.74 65.6 65.61 0.0099 0.0876 0.0002 -0.0241 0.0113 $0.10

$0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 1.59 26.78 65.6 65.61 0.0103 0.0911 0.0002 -0.0253 0.0117 $0.11

$0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 1.57 27.66 65.6 65.61 0.0106 0.0941 0.0002 -0.0266 0.0121 $0.11

$0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 1.56 28.40 65.6 65.61 0.0109 0.0966 0.0002 -0.0279 0.0124 $0.12

$0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 1.56 29.02 65.6 65.61 0.0111 0.0987 0.0002 -0.0292 0.0127 $0.12

$0.01 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 29.53 65.61 0.0113 0.1005 0.0002 -0.0305 0.0129 $0.13

$0.01 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 28.37 65.61 0.0109 0.0965 0.0002 -0.0294 0.0124 $0.12

$0.01 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 27.11 65.61 0.0104 0.0922 0.0002 -0.0282 0.0119 $0.12

$0.01 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 25.76 65.61 0.0099 0.0877 0.0002 -0.0269 0.0113 $0.11

$0.01 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 24.34 65.61 0.0093 0.0828 0.0002 -0.0256 0.0107 $0.11

$0.01 $0.000 $0.006 $0.00 22.84 65.61 0.0088 0.0777 0.0002 -0.0243 0.0100 $0.10

$0.01 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 21.29 65.61 0.0082 0.0724 0.0002 -0.0229 0.0093 $0.10

$0.01 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 19.70 65.61 0.0076 0.0670 0.0001 -0.0215 0.0086 $0.09

$0.00 $0.000 $0.005 $0.00 18.08 65.61 0.0069 0.0615 0.0001 -0.0201 0.0079 $0.08

$0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 16.43 65.61 0.0063 0.0559 0.0001 -0.0186 0.0072 $0.08

$0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 14.77 65.61 0.0057 0.0502 0.0001 -0.0170 0.0065 $0.07

$0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 13.11 65.61 0.0050 0.0446 0.0001 -0.0154 0.0057 $0.06

$0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 11.49 65.61 0.0044 0.0391 0.0001 -0.0138 0.0050 $0.05

$0.00 $0.000 $0.003 $0.00 9.92 65.61 0.0038 0.0338 0.0001 -0.0122 0.0043 $0.05

$0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 8.42 65.61 0.0032 0.0287 0.0001 -0.0105 0.0037 $0.04
$0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 7.02 65.61 0.0027 0.0239 0.0001 -0.0090 0.0031 $0.03

$0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 5.72 65.61 0.0022 0.0195 0.0000 -0.0075 0.0025 $0.03

$0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 4.54 65.61 0.0017 0.0155 0.0000 -0.0060 0.0020 $0.02

$0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 3.50 65.61 0.0013 0.0119 0.0000 -0.0047 0.0015 $0.02

$0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 2.62 65.61 0.0010 0.0089 0.0000 -0.0036 0.0011 $0.01

$0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 1.90 65.61 0.0007 0.0065 0.0000 -0.0027 0.0008 $0.01

$0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 1.32 65.61 0.0005 0.0045 0.0000 -0.0019 0.0006 $0.01

$0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.88 65.61 0.0003 0.0030 0.0000 -0.0013 0.0004 $0.00

$0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.55 65.61 0.0002 0.0019 0.0000 -0.0008 0.0002 $0.00

$0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.31 65.61 0.0001 0.0011 0.0000 -0.0005 0.0001 $0.00

$0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.16 65.61 0.0001 0.0005 0.0000 -0.0002 0.0001 $0.00

$0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.06 65.61 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 -0.0001 0.0000 $0.00

$0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.02 65.61 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00
Equipment 

Cost

Maintenance 

Cost

Net 

Savings

Net Present 

Value Shipments Affected Stock Avg UEC of 

Shipments

Avg UEC of 

Stock

Gas 

Efficiency 

Site Savings

Elec, Eff. 

Site Savings

Market Shift 

from Gas

Market Shift to 

Elec

Total 

Primary

Savings

Operating 

Cost Savings

Equipment 

Cost

Billions 

$2001

Billions 

$2001

Billions 

$2001 Billions $2001 Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh Quads Billions $2001

Billions 

$2001

-$0.03 $0.00 -$0.03 -$0.02 0.87 0.00 62.7 62.73 0.0000 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 $0.000 -$0.29

-$0.03 $0.000 -$0.03 -$0.01 0.91 0.87 62.7 62.73 0.0029 0.0326 0.0001 -0.0117 0.0033 $0.026 -$0.30

-$0.04 $0.000 -$0.03 -$0.01 0.97 1.78 62.7 62.73 0.0058 0.0666 0.0002 -0.0232 0.0068 $0.053 -$0.32

-$0.04 $0.000 -$0.03 -$0.01 1.04 2.75 62.7 62.73 0.0090 0.1029 0.0002 -0.0346 0.0104 $0.082 -$0.35

-$0.04 $0.000 -$0.03 -$0.01 1.13 3.79 62.7 62.73 0.0124 0.1418 0.0003 -0.0459 0.0144 $0.116 -$0.37

-$0.04 $0.000 -$0.03 -$0.01 1.22 4.92 62.7 62.73 0.0161 0.1839 0.0004 -0.0573 0.0187 $0.152 -$0.41

-$0.05 $0.000 -$0.03 -$0.01 1.31 6.14 62.7 62.73 0.0201 0.2294 0.0005 -0.0688 0.0233 $0.193 -$0.44

-$0.05 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.01 1.40 7.44 62.7 62.73 0.0243 0.2783 0.0005 -0.0803 0.0282 $0.236 -$0.47

-$0.05 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.01 1.49 8.84 62.7 62.73 0.0289 0.3307 0.0006 -0.0919 0.0335 $0.282 -$0.50

-$0.06 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.01 1.58 10.34 62.7 62.73 0.0338 0.3865 0.0007 -0.1036 0.0392 $0.333 -$0.53

-$0.06 $0.000 -$0.02 $0.00 1.65 11.91 62.7 62.73 0.0390 0.4454 0.0008 -0.1153 0.0452 $0.387 -$0.55

-$0.06 $0.000 -$0.01 $0.00 1.70 13.55 62.7 62.73 0.0443 0.5068 0.0008 -0.1270 0.0514 $0.445 -$0.57

-$0.06 $0.000 -$0.01 $0.00 1.74 15.23 62.7 62.73 0.0498 0.5694 0.0009 -0.1387 0.0577 $0.504 -$0.58

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 1.75 16.91 62.7 62.73 0.0553 0.6322 0.0010 -0.1503 0.0641 $0.565 -$0.58

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 1.75 18.57 62.7 62.73 0.0607 0.6943 0.0011 -0.1619 0.0704 $0.626 -$0.58

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.02 $0.00 1.75 20.18 62.7 62.73 0.0660 0.7546 0.0011 -0.1734 0.0765 $0.687 -$0.58

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.02 $0.00 1.73 21.73 62.7 62.73 0.0710 0.8123 0.0012 -0.1849 0.0824 $0.747 -$0.58

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.03 $0.00 1.70 23.18 62.7 62.73 0.0758 0.8665 0.0013 -0.1963 0.0879 $0.804 -$0.57

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.04 $0.01 1.663 24.51 62.7 62.73 0.0801 0.9163 0.0014 -0.2077 0.0929 $0.858 -$0.55

Net Present Value

Trial Standard Level 4

Net Present Value Shipments & Stock Energy Savings

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.04 $0.01 1.663 24.51 62.7 62.73 0.0801 0.9163 0.0014 -0.2077 0.0929 $0.858 -$0.55

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.05 $0.01 1.62 25.70 62.7 62.73 0.0840 0.9610 0.0014 -0.2191 0.0974 $0.908 -$0.54

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.05 $0.01 1.59 26.74 62.7 62.73 0.0874 0.9997 0.0015 -0.2304 0.1014 $0.953 -$0.53

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.06 $0.01 1.56 27.62 62.7 62.73 0.0903 1.0326 0.0016 -0.2419 0.1047 $0.994 -$0.52

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.06 $0.01 1.55 28.36 62.7 62.73 0.0927 1.0603 0.0017 -0.2536 0.1075 $1.030 -$0.52

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.07 $0.01 1.56 28.97 62.7 62.73 0.0947 1.0833 0.0017 -0.2654 0.1098 $1.062 -$0.52

$0.000 $0.13 $0.01 29.48 62.73 0.0964 1.1024 0.0018 -0.2774 0.1118 $1.091 $0.00

$0.000 $0.12 $0.01 28.33 62.73 0.0926 1.0591 0.0018 -0.2670 0.1074 $1.057 $0.00

$0.000 $0.12 $0.01 27.07 62.73 0.0885 1.0122 0.0017 -0.2560 0.1026 $1.020 $0.00

$0.000 $0.11 $0.01 25.72 62.73 0.0841 0.9618 0.0016 -0.2445 0.0975 $0.978 $0.00

$0.000 $0.11 $0.01 24.30 62.73 0.0794 0.9085 0.0015 -0.2327 0.0921 $0.933 $0.00

$0.000 $0.10 $0.01 22.80 62.73 0.0746 0.8526 0.0014 -0.2205 0.0865 $0.883 $0.00

$0.000 $0.10 $0.01 21.26 62.73 0.0695 0.7948 0.0014 -0.2081 0.0806 $0.831

$0.000 $0.09 $0.01 19.67 62.73 0.0643 0.7355 0.0013 -0.1954 0.0746 $0.776

$0.000 $0.08 $0.00 18.05 62.73 0.0590 0.6749 0.0012 -0.1823 0.0684 $0.719

$0.000 $0.08 $0.00 16.40 62.73 0.0536 0.6133 0.0011 -0.1687 0.0622 $0.659

$0.000 $0.07 $0.00 14.74 62.73 0.0482 0.5512 0.0010 -0.1546 0.0559 $0.598

$0.000 $0.06 $0.00 13.09 62.73 0.0428 0.4894 0.0009 -0.1401 0.0496 $0.536

$0.000 $0.05 $0.00 11.47 62.73 0.0375 0.4288 0.0008 -0.1253 0.0435 $0.474

$0.000 $0.05 $0.00 9.90 62.73 0.0324 0.3702 0.0007 -0.1105 0.0375 $0.413

$0.000 $0.04 $0.00 8.41 62.73 0.0275 0.3143 0.0006 -0.0958 0.0319 $0.354
$0.000 $0.03 $0.00 7.00 62.73 0.0229 0.2618 0.0005 -0.0815 0.0265 $0.298

$0.000 $0.03 $0.00 5.71 62.73 0.0187 0.2134 0.0004 -0.0677 0.0216 $0.245

$0.000 $0.02 $0.00 4.53 62.73 0.0148 0.1695 0.0004 -0.0549 0.0172 $0.196

$0.000 $0.02 $0.00 3.50 62.73 0.0114 0.1308 0.0003 -0.0431 0.0133 $0.153

$0.000 $0.01 $0.00 2.61 62.73 0.0085 0.0977 0.0002 -0.0327 0.0099 $0.115

$0.000 $0.01 $0.00 1.89 62.73 0.0062 0.0708 0.0002 -0.0241 0.0072 $0.084

$0.000 $0.01 $0.00 1.32 62.73 0.0043 0.0494 0.0001 -0.0171 0.0050 $0.059

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.88 62.73 0.0029 0.0328 0.0001 -0.0116 0.0033 $0.040

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.55 62.73 0.0018 0.0205 0.0000 -0.0073 0.0021 $0.025

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.31 62.73 0.0010 0.0117 0.0000 -0.0042 0.0012 $0.014

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.16 62.73 0.0005 0.0058 0.0000 -0.0021 0.0006 $0.007

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.06 62.73 0.0002 0.0023 0.0000 -0.0009 0.0002 $0.003

$0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.02 62.73 0.0001 0.0006 0.0000 -0.0002 0.0001 $0.001
Maintenance 

Cost Net Savings Net Present Value

Shipment

s

Affected 

Stock

Avg UEC 

of 

Shipment

s

Avg UEC 

of Stock

Gas 

Efficiency 

Site 

Savings

Elec, Eff. 

Site 

Savings

Market 

Shift from 

Gas

Market 

Shift to 

Elec

Total 

Primary

Savings

Operating 

Cost 

Savings

Equipmen

t Cost

Maintenan

ce Cost

Net 

Savings

Net 

Present 

Value

Billions $2001 Billions $2001 Billions 

$2001 Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh Quads Billions $2004

Billions 

$2004

Billions 

$2004

Billions 

$2004

Billions 

$2004

$0.00 -$0.29 -$0.15 0.87 0.00 60.0 60.01 0.0000 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 $0.000 -$1.08 $0.00 -$1.08 -$0.55

$0.00 -$0.28 -$0.13 0.91 0.87 60.0 60.01 0.0052 0.0463 0.0000 0.0000 0.0060 $0.047 -$1.13 -$0.01 -$1.09 -$0.52

$0.00 -$0.27 -$0.12 0.97 1.79 60.0 60.01 0.0107 0.0946 0.0000 0.0000 0.0122 $0.096 -$1.20 -$0.02 -$1.12 -$0.50

$0.00 -$0.26 -$0.11 1.04 2.76 60.0 60.01 0.0165 0.1460 0.0000 0.0000 0.0188 $0.151 -$1.29 -$0.03 -$1.16 -$0.48

$0.00 -$0.26 -$0.10 1.13 3.80 60.0 60.01 0.0227 0.2013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0260 $0.212 -$1.39 -$0.04 -$1.22 -$0.47

$0.00 -$0.25 -$0.09 1.22 4.93 60.0 60.01 0.0295 0.2610 0.0000 0.0000 0.0337 $0.279 -$1.50 -$0.05 -$1.27 -$0.46

$0.00 -$0.24 -$0.08 1.31 6.15 60.0 60.01 0.0368 0.3256 0.0000 0.0000 0.0420 $0.353 -$1.62 -$0.06 -$1.32 -$0.45

$0.00 -$0.23 -$0.07 1.40 7.46 60.0 60.01 0.0446 0.3949 0.0000 0.0000 0.0509 $0.431 -$1.73 -$0.07 -$1.37 -$0.43

$0.00 -$0.22 -$0.06 1.49 8.86 60.0 60.01 0.0530 0.4692 0.0000 0.0000 0.0605 $0.514 -$1.84 -$0.08 -$1.41 -$0.42

$0.00 -$0.19 -$0.05 1.58 10.36 60.0 60.01 0.0620 0.5483 0.0000 0.0000 0.0707 $0.606 -$1.95 -$0.10 -$1.44 -$0.40

$0.00 -$0.16 -$0.04 1.65 11.93 60.0 60.01 0.0714 0.6319 0.0000 0.0000 0.0815 $0.705 -$2.04 -$0.11 -$1.45 -$0.37

$0.00 -$0.12 -$0.03 1.70 13.58 60.0 60.01 0.0812 0.7189 0.0000 0.0000 0.0927 $0.809 -$2.10 -$0.13 -$1.42 -$0.34

$0.00 -$0.07 -$0.02 1.74 15.25 60.0 60.01 0.0913 0.8077 0.0000 0.0000 0.1042 $0.917 -$2.14 -$0.15 -$1.37 -$0.31

$0.00 -$0.02 $0.00 1.75 16.94 60.0 60.01 0.1013 0.8968 0.0000 0.0000 0.1157 $1.028 -$2.17 -$0.16 -$1.30 -$0.27

$0.00 $0.04 $0.01 1.76 18.60 60.0 60.01 0.1113 0.9848 0.0000 0.0000 0.1270 $1.139 -$2.17 -$0.18 -$1.21 -$0.24

$0.00 $0.11 $0.02 1.75 20.22 60.0 60.01 0.1209 1.0704 0.0000 0.0000 0.1381 $1.250 -$2.16 -$0.19 -$1.10 -$0.20

$0.00 $0.17 $0.03 1.73 21.76 60.0 60.01 0.1302 1.1522 0.0000 0.0000 0.1486 $1.358 -$2.13 -$0.21 -$0.98 -$0.17

$0.00 $0.24 $0.04 1.70 23.21 60.0 60.01 0.1389 1.2290 0.0000 0.0000 0.1585 $1.462 -$2.10 -$0.22 -$0.86 -$0.14

$0.00 $0.30 $0.05 1.67 24.55 60.0 60.01 0.1469 1.2997 0.0000 0.0000 0.1676 $1.560 -$2.06 -$0.23 -$0.73 -$0.11

Trial Standard Level 5

Net Present Value Shipments & Stock Energy Savings Net Present Value

$0.00 $0.30 $0.05 1.67 24.55 60.0 60.01 0.1469 1.2997 0.0000 0.0000 0.1676 $1.560 -$2.06 -$0.23 -$0.73 -$0.11

$0.00 $0.37 $0.05 1.63 25.74 60.0 60.01 0.1540 1.3630 0.0000 0.0000 0.1758 $1.651 -$2.01 -$0.24 -$0.60 -$0.08

$0.00 $0.43 $0.06 1.59 26.78 60.0 60.01 0.1602 1.4180 0.0000 0.0000 0.1829 $1.734 -$1.96 -$0.25 -$0.48 -$0.06

$0.00 $0.47 $0.06 1.57 27.66 60.0 60.01 0.1655 1.4647 0.0000 0.0000 0.1889 $1.807 -$1.93 -$0.26 -$0.39 -$0.05

$0.00 $0.51 $0.06 1.56 28.40 60.0 60.01 0.1699 1.5040 0.0000 0.0000 0.1940 $1.873 -$1.92 -$0.27 -$0.32 -$0.04

$0.00 $0.54 $0.06 1.56 29.02 60.0 60.01 0.1736 1.5367 0.0000 0.0000 0.1982 $1.932 -$1.93 -$0.28 -$0.27 -$0.03

$0.00 $1.09 $0.11 29.53 60.01 0.1767 1.5638 0.0000 0.0000 0.2017 $1.984 $0.00 -$0.28 $1.70 $0.17

$0.00 $1.06 $0.10 28.38 60.01 0.1698 1.5025 0.0000 0.0000 0.1938 $1.924 $0.00 -$0.27 $1.65 $0.15

$0.00 $1.02 $0.09 27.12 60.01 0.1622 1.4359 0.0000 0.0000 0.1852 $1.856 $0.00 -$0.26 $1.60 $0.14

$0.00 $0.98 $0.08 25.77 60.01 0.1542 1.3644 0.0000 0.0000 0.1760 $1.780 $0.00 -$0.25 $1.53 $0.13

$0.00 $0.93 $0.07 24.34 60.01 0.1456 1.2888 0.0000 0.0000 0.1662 $1.697 $0.00 -$0.23 $1.47 $0.11

$0.00 $0.88 $0.06 22.84 60.01 0.1367 1.2096 0.0000 0.0000 0.1560 $1.607 $0.00 -$0.22 $1.39 $0.10

$0.00 $0.83 $0.06 21.30 60.01 0.1274 1.1277 0.0000 0.0000 0.1454 $1.512 -$0.20 $1.31 $0.09

$0.00 $0.78 $0.05 19.71 60.01 0.1179 1.0435 0.0000 0.0000 0.1346 $1.412 -$0.19 $1.22 $0.08

$0.00 $0.72 $0.04 18.08 60.01 0.1082 0.9575 0.0000 0.0000 0.1235 $1.308 -$0.17 $1.14 $0.07

$0.00 $0.66 $0.04 16.43 60.01 0.0983 0.8702 0.0000 0.0000 0.1122 $1.200 -$0.16 $1.04 $0.06

$0.00 $0.60 $0.03 14.77 60.01 0.0884 0.7821 0.0000 0.0000 0.1009 $1.088 -$0.14 $0.95 $0.05

$0.00 $0.54 $0.03 13.12 60.01 0.0785 0.6945 0.0000 0.0000 0.0896 $0.976 -$0.12 $0.85 $0.04

$0.00 $0.47 $0.02 11.49 60.01 0.0688 0.6085 0.0000 0.0000 0.0785 $0.863 -$0.11 $0.75 $0.03

$0.00 $0.41 $0.02 9.92 60.01 0.0594 0.5254 0.0000 0.0000 0.0678 $0.752 -$0.09 $0.66 $0.03

$0.00 $0.35 $0.01 8.42 60.01 0.0504 0.4461 0.0000 0.0000 0.0575 $0.644 -$0.08 $0.56 $0.02
$0.00 $0.30 $0.01 7.02 60.01 0.0420 0.3716 0.0000 0.0000 0.0479 $0.542 -$0.07 $0.47 $0.02

$0.00 $0.24 $0.01 5.72 60.01 0.0342 0.3028 0.0000 0.0000 0.0391 $0.446 -$0.05 $0.39 $0.01

$0.00 $0.20 $0.01 4.54 60.01 0.0272 0.2406 0.0000 0.0000 0.0310 $0.357 -$0.04 $0.31 $0.01

$0.00 $0.15 $0.00 3.51 60.01 0.0210 0.1856 0.0000 0.0000 0.0239 $0.278 -$0.03 $0.24 $0.01

$0.00 $0.12 $0.00 2.62 60.01 0.0157 0.1387 0.0000 0.0000 0.0179 $0.210 -$0.02 $0.18 $0.01

$0.00 $0.08 $0.00 1.90 60.01 0.0114 0.1005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0130 $0.153 -$0.02 $0.14 $0.00

$0.00 $0.06 $0.00 1.32 60.01 0.0079 0.0701 0.0000 0.0000 0.0090 $0.108 -$0.01 $0.10 $0.00

$0.00 $0.04 $0.00 0.88 60.01 0.0053 0.0466 0.0000 0.0000 0.0060 $0.072 -$0.01 $0.06 $0.00

$0.00 $0.03 $0.00 0.55 60.01 0.0033 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 0.0037 $0.046 -$0.01 $0.04 $0.00

$0.00 $0.01 $0.00 0.31 60.01 0.0019 0.0166 0.0000 0.0000 0.0021 $0.026 $0.00 $0.02 $0.00

$0.00 $0.01 $0.00 0.16 60.01 0.0009 0.0083 0.0000 0.0000 0.0011 $0.013 $0.00 $0.01 $0.00

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.06 60.01 0.0004 0.0033 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 $0.005 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.02 60.01 0.0001 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 $0.001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Conversion Rates based on AGA data

% Weatherized of

Source: Historical Shipments: Furnaces and Boilers: GAMA Statistical Highlights 1969-1997 + Recent Data provided by GAMA Historical Housing Census Data: ftp://ftp.census.gov/pub/const/C22/compann.xls gas furnace shipments

Source: Historical Shipments: Heat Pumps - American Refrigeration Institute Oil to Gas Elec to Gas Housing Forecast AEO2005 to New Housing

35.1% 31.8% 10.4%

Total Efficiency Central Gas Heating New Housing (million)

Upgrages Retrofit

Oil Gas Oil Oil Gas Oil Modeled Oil Electric Oil Total Total NWGF NWGF Oil Gas Oil Mobile Oil Gas Oil Central Oil Electric Gas Oil Heat

Total NW NW-Cold NW-Warm Weath. MH Furnace SF+MF MH Boiler Boiler SF+MF MH Total NW NW-Cold NW-Warm W MH Furnace SF+MF MH Boilers Boilers SF+MF MH Replacements Furnace Furnace Boiler Furnace Total NW W MH Furnace Boilers Boilers United States Cold Warm Homes Total Total NW NW-Cold NW-Warm Weath MH Furnace SF + MF MH Boilers Boilers SF + MF MH Heating Total NW NW-Cold NW-Warm W MH Furnace Furnace Boilers Boiler Pump Furnace Boiler

1951 0.428 0.385 0.182 0.203 0.043 0.000 0.135 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000

1952 0.383 0.345 0.163 0.182 0.038 0.000 0.270 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000

1953 0.416 0.375 0.177 0.198 0.0414 0.0000 0.356 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000

1954 0.520 0.214 0.101 0.113 0.3061 0.0000 0.362 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000

1955 0.735 0.663 0.313 0.350 0.0719 0.0000 0.410 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000

1956 0.811 0.741 0.350 0.391 0.0703 0.0000 0.384 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000

1957 0.724 0.673 0.318 0.355 0.0511 0.0000 0.321 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000

1958 0.774 0.727 0.344 0.383 0.0469 0.0000 0.300 0.000 0.021 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1959 0.960 0.861 0.407 0.454 0.0495 0.0500 0.301 0.021 0.033 0.007 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.121 0.050 0.021 0.007 0.000 0.000

1960 0.932 0.838 0.396 0.442 0.0498 0.0440 0.264 0.019 0.039 0.006 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.104 0.044 0.019 0.006 0.000 0.000

1961 0.886 0.805 0.380 0.424 0.0421 0.0389 0.218 0.016 0.042 0.005 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.090 0.039 0.016 0.005 0.000 0.000

1962 0.935 0.839 0.397 0.442 0.0438 0.0521 0.207 0.022 0.050 0.007 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.002 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0.118 0.052 0.022 0.007 0.004 0.000

1963 1.030 0.913 0.431 0.481 0.0490 0.0682 0.225 0.029 0.062 0.009 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.008 0.000 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 2% 2% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0.151 0.068 0.029 0.009 0.014 0.000

1964 1.122 0.986 0.466 0.520 0.0479 0.0881 0.293 0.037 0.063 0.011 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.018 0.000 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 4% 4% 2% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0.191 0.088 0.037 0.011 0.034 0.000

1965 1.189 1.026 0.485 0.541 0.0605 0.1021 0.314 0.043 0.059 0.012 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.034 0.000 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 7% 7% 6% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0.217 0.102 0.043 0.012 0.063 0.000

1966 1.185 1.018 0.481 0.537 0.0658 0.1017 0.296 0.042 0.067 0.013 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.16 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.056 0.000 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 11% 11% 10% 0% 35% 0% 0% 0.217 0.102 0.042 0.013 0.103 0.000

1967 1.134 0.954 0.451 0.503 0.0680 0.1121 0.286 0.046 0.065 0.016 0.10 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.22 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.079 0.000 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 17% 17% 28% 0% 51% 0% 0% 0.240 0.112 0.046 0.015 0.145 0.000

1968 1.420 1.201 0.568 0.633 0.0708 0.1479 0.301 0.061 0.072 0.022 0.15 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.00 0.28 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.55 0.099 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 18% 18% 46% 0% 61% 0% 0% 1.320 0.295 1.021 0.318 1.638 0.740 0.530 0.251 0.280 0.062 0.148 0.040 0.186 0.061 0.075 0.054 0.115 0.021 1.271 0.988 0.746 0.404 0.341 0.094 0.148 0.222 0.186 0.075 0.054 0.121 0.183 0.000

1969 1.546 1.265 0.598 0.667 0.0897 0.1912 0.305 0.078 0.176 0.079 0.030 0.21 0.16 0.07 0.08 0.05 0.00 0.32 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.69 0.113 0.000 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 21% 21% 54% 0% 68% 0% 0% 1.399 0.313 1.082 0.413 1.812 0.806 0.551 0.260 0.291 0.064 0.191 0.041 0.212 0.078 0.076 0.054 0.128 0.029 1.395 1.125 0.822 0.448 0.374 0.113 0.191 0.250 0.212 0.076 0.054 0.137 0.209 0.000

1970 1.471 1.173 0.554 0.618 0.1129 0.1851 0.304 0.076 0.164 0.080 0.031 0.27 0.21 0.10 0.11 0.06 0.00 0.35 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.84 0.121 0.000 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 28% 28% 56% 0% 74% 0% 0% 1.418 0.317 1.097 0.401 1.820 0.796 0.547 0.259 0.289 0.064 0.185 0.040 0.229 0.076 0.073 0.051 0.136 0.030 1.401 1.188 0.876 0.478 0.398 0.127 0.185 0.264 0.229 0.073 0.051 0.149 0.224 0.000

1971 1.795 1.382 0.653 0.729 0.1849 0.2283 0.333 0.201 0.093 0.157 0.067 0.041 0.34 0.27 0.13 0.14 0.08 0.00 0.35 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.97 0.122 0.000 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 28% 28% 42% 0% 68% 0% 0% 1.706 0.382 1.320 0.497 2.203 0.948 0.645 0.305 0.340 0.075 0.228 0.046 0.293 0.093 0.084 0.056 0.172 0.039 1.692 1.413 1.032 0.552 0.480 0.153 0.228 0.271 0.293 0.084 0.056 0.190 0.225 0.000

1972 2.066 1.545 0.730 0.815 0.2571 0.2636 0.311 0.301 0.109 0.156 0.134 0.079 0.050 0.41 0.32 0.15 0.17 0.09 0.00 0.33 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 1.10 0.117 0.000 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 29% 29% 35% 0% 69% 0% 0% 2.004 0.448 1.550 0.576 2.580 1.091 0.741 0.350 0.391 0.086 0.264 0.052 0.364 0.107 0.094 0.061 0.210 0.047 1.979 1.622 1.182 0.620 0.562 0.177 0.264 0.267 0.364 0.094 0.061 0.235 0.215 0.000

1973 1.719 1.146 0.542 0.604 0.3182 0.2550 0.328 0.392 0.113 0.147 0.130 0.098 0.051 0.47 0.38 0.18 0.20 0.09 0.00 0.31 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.20 0.109 0.000 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 43% 43% 28% 0% 61% 0% 0% 2.101 0.470 1.625 0.567 2.667 1.078 0.737 0.348 0.389 0.086 0.255 0.058 0.403 0.110 0.089 0.071 0.257 0.046 2.065 1.659 1.230 0.639 0.591 0.174 0.255 0.259 0.403 0.089 0.071 0.288 0.201 0.000

1974 1.476 1.039 0.491 0.548 0.2894 0.1477 0.209 0.411 0.072 0.123 0.091 0.113 0.032 0.53 0.45 0.21 0.24 0.08 0.00 0.29 0.000 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 1.31 0.101 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 53% 53% 29% 2% 89% 0% 0% 1.729 0.387 1.337 0.329 2.058 0.702 0.498 0.236 0.263 0.058 0.145 0.036 0.381 0.066 0.052 0.054 0.303 0.027 1.595 1.334 1.045 0.547 0.498 0.141 0.148 0.223 0.381 0.052 0.054 0.340 0.187 0.000

1975 1.186 0.929 0.427 0.502 0.1585 0.0987 0.213 0.194 0.053 0.088 0.099 0.136 0.024 0.59 0.51 0.24 0.27 0.07 0.01 0.27 0.000 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 1.43 0.094 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 65% 65% 47% 6% 82% 0% 0% 1.317 0.313 1.004 0.213 1.530 0.508 0.372 0.171 0.201 0.043 0.092 0.032 0.275 0.044 0.037 0.050 0.236 0.017 1.182 1.196 0.979 0.508 0.472 0.118 0.099 0.206 0.275 0.037 0.050 0.279 0.174 0.000

1976 1.554 1.206 0.551 0.655 0.2312 0.1171 0.236 0.247 0.066 0.113 0.132 0.264 0.029 0.66 0.58 0.27 0.30 0.07 0.01 0.25 0.000 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.01 1.55 0.090 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 55% 55% 29% 11% 70% 0% 0% 1.377 0.344 1.031 0.246 1.623 0.549 0.398 0.182 0.216 0.046 0.105 0.053 0.290 0.053 0.038 0.078 0.244 0.020 1.305 1.295 1.065 0.544 0.521 0.113 0.117 0.219 0.290 0.038 0.078 0.293 0.165 0.000

1977 1.508 1.158 0.541 0.616 0.2180 0.1322 0.228 0.311 0.076 0.113 0.134 0.402 0.032 0.72 0.64 0.30 0.34 0.06 0.02 0.25 0.000 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.01 1.68 0.089 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 63% 63% 27% 16% 72% 0% 0% 1.657 0.407 1.248 0.267 1.924 0.621 0.457 0.213 0.243 0.053 0.112 0.057 0.385 0.060 0.042 0.079 0.317 0.022 1.560 1.426 1.182 0.603 0.579 0.111 0.132 0.221 0.385 0.042 0.079 0.371 0.164 0.000

1978 1.636 1.237 0.588 0.649 0.2529 0.1460 0.263 0.349 0.081 0.126 0.108 0.486 0.042 0.77 0.69 0.33 0.37 0.05 0.03 0.26 0.000 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.01 1.80 0.090 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 63% 63% 20% 22% 63% 0% 0% 1.868 0.445 1.422 0.276 2.143 0.674 0.501 0.238 0.263 0.058 0.114 0.057 0.466 0.061 0.044 0.074 0.377 0.029 1.752 1.538 1.284 0.656 0.628 0.108 0.146 0.224 0.466 0.044 0.074 0.435 0.167 0.000

1979 1.863 1.459 0.711 0.748 0.2482 0.1558 0.158 0.283 0.085 0.221 0.085 0.482 0.051 0.84 0.75 0.35 0.39 0.05 0.04 0.27 0.000 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.02 1.94 0.094 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 58% 58% 20% 27% 110% 0% 0% 1.871 0.441 1.428 0.277 2.148 0.697 0.522 0.254 0.268 0.061 0.114 0.050 0.481 0.060 0.044 0.061 0.382 0.036 1.775 1.628 1.362 0.701 0.661 0.110 0.156 0.224 0.481 0.044 0.061 0.444 0.174 0.000

1980 1.446 1.170 0.526 0.643 0.1340 0.1424 0.064 0.227 0.077 0.293 0.052 0.354 0.052 0.90 0.79 0.38 0.42 0.05 0.05 0.28 0.000 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.02 2.07 0.098 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 76% 76% 37% 37% 285% 0% 0% 1.502 0.321 1.179 0.222 1.723 0.587 0.445 0.200 0.245 0.052 0.090 0.019 0.400 0.047 0.035 0.022 0.312 0.034 1.423 1.582 1.338 0.674 0.664 0.101 0.142 0.201 0.400 0.035 0.022 0.378 0.182 0.000

1981 1.417 1.135 0.493 0.642 0.1215 0.1603 0.081 0.235 0.086 0.162 0.067 0.414 0.064 0.95 0.84 0.40 0.44 0.05 0.06 0.29 0.000 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.02 2.19 0.102 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 83% 83% 43% 39% 231% 0% 0% 1.266 0.253 1.006 0.241 1.507 0.525 0.384 0.166 0.217 0.045 0.097 0.010 0.318 0.050 0.030 0.012 0.270 0.043 1.217 1.580 1.323 0.664 0.659 0.096 0.160 0.198 0.318 0.030 0.012 0.340 0.188 0.000

1982 1.156 0.875 0.357 0.518 0.1115 0.1693 0.104 0.177 0.090 0.148 0.073 0.316 0.072 1.01 0.88 0.42 0.47 0.06 0.07 0.30 0.000 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.02 2.31 0.104 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 113% 113% 49% 44% 186% 0% 0% 1.006 0.187 0.819 0.239 1.244 0.412 0.283 0.116 0.168 0.033 0.095 0.011 0.248 0.049 0.022 0.014 0.229 0.048 0.985 1.528 1.271 0.638 0.633 0.088 0.169 0.204 0.248 0.022 0.014 0.303 0.193 0.000

1983 1.662 1.262 0.529 0.734 0.1921 0.2072 0.127 0.339 0.111 0.148 0.083 0.627 0.081 1.08 0.93 0.44 0.49 0.06 0.09 0.30 0.006 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.03 2.45 0.106 0.002 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 82% 82% 31% 42% 154% 0% 0% 1.390 0.256 1.130 0.295 1.685 0.596 0.426 0.178 0.247 0.050 0.120 0.010 0.322 0.064 0.032 0.014 0.324 0.054 1.362 1.782 1.465 0.725 0.740 0.110 0.207 0.207 0.326 0.032 0.014 0.404 0.196 0.000

1984 1.849 1.435 0.621 0.814 0.1895 0.2248 0.148 0.354 0.122 0.180 0.091 0.745 0.077 1.15 0.97 0.46 0.51 0.07 0.10 0.31 0.020 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.03 2.59 0.108 0.006 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 76% 76% 36% 46% 134% 0% 0% 1.652 0.313 1.336 0.295 1.947 0.681 0.500 0.217 0.284 0.058 0.122 0.012 0.374 0.067 0.037 0.016 0.410 0.048 1.597 1.941 1.589 0.785 0.804 0.127 0.225 0.210 0.387 0.037 0.016 0.502 0.199 0.000

1985 1.822 1.381 0.686 0.696 0.2033 0.2377 0.147 0.366 0.132 0.192 0.104 0.821 0.071 1.21 1.01 0.48 0.53 0.08 0.12 0.31 0.044 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.03 2.75 0.107 0.014 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 82% 82% 40% 50% 135% 0% 0% 1.703 0.354 1.343 0.283 1.987 0.713 0.531 0.264 0.268 0.062 0.120 0.015 0.359 0.068 0.039 0.022 0.429 0.041 1.645 2.046 1.665 0.849 0.815 0.144 0.238 0.213 0.389 0.039 0.022 0.539 0.198 0.000

1986 2.105 1.661 0.843 0.817 0.2028 0.2416 0.201 0.383 0.133 0.196 0.126 0.884 0.062 1.28 1.04 0.49 0.55 0.10 0.14 0.30 0.081 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.03 2.92 0.106 0.026 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00 71% 71% 50% 56% 98% 0% 0% 1.756 0.395 1.356 0.245 2.001 0.780 0.604 0.307 0.297 0.070 0.105 0.022 0.335 0.062 0.039 0.036 0.413 0.031 1.686 2.193 1.780 0.906 0.874 0.172 0.242 0.218 0.390 0.039 0.036 0.548 0.196 0.000

1987 2.073 1.575 0.816 0.758 0.2375 0.2609 0.206 0.375 0.138 0.190 0.135 0.918 0.056 1.36 1.08 0.51 0.57 0.13 0.16 0.29 0.122 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.03 3.09 0.103 0.039 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00 77% 78% 53% 61% 92% 0% 0% 1.669 0.403 1.265 0.233 1.901 0.833 0.655 0.340 0.316 0.076 0.102 0.022 0.278 0.061 0.037 0.040 0.354 0.025 1.624 2.336 1.873 0.950 0.922 0.202 0.261 0.211 0.361 0.037 0.040 0.519 0.190 0.000

1988 2.092 1.572 0.794 0.778 0.2473 0.2724 0.204 0.293 0.142 0.192 0.170 0.835 0.066 1.44 1.11 0.52 0.58 0.15 0.18 0.28 0.171 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.03 3.28 0.098 0.054 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.01 0.00 80% 81% 61% 67% 89% 0% 0% 1.530 0.372 1.155 0.218 1.748 0.806 0.642 0.324 0.318 0.075 0.089 0.021 0.234 0.062 0.031 0.042 0.308 0.035 1.503 2.400 1.901 0.945 0.956 0.226 0.272 0.202 0.351 0.031 0.042 0.506 0.181 0.000

1989 2.162 1.620 0.819 0.801 0.2665 0.2755 0.179 0.298 0.141 0.182 0.151 0.835 0.072 1.51 1.13 0.53 0.60 0.18 0.20 0.26 0.217 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.03 3.44 0.092 0.069 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.01 0.01 80% 81% 67% 73% 95% 0% 0% 1.423 0.349 1.074 0.198 1.621 0.779 0.631 0.319 0.312 0.073 0.075 0.016 0.206 0.059 0.025 0.037 0.278 0.042 1.401 2.452 1.924 0.945 0.979 0.252 0.276 0.186 0.353 0.025 0.037 0.513 0.170 0.000

1990 1.950 1.452 0.706 0.746 0.2231 0.2746 0.138 0.280 0.139 0.196 0.130 0.809 0.080 1.57 1.16 0.55 0.61 0.20 0.21 0.25 0.256 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.28 0.03 3.59 0.086 0.081 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.02 0.01 91% 93% 91% 76% 115% 4% 0% 1.308 0.317 0.989 0.188 1.496 0.738 0.602 0.293 0.310 0.070 0.066 0.014 0.180 0.060 0.019 0.036 0.251 0.049 1.297 2.475 1.927 0.925 1.002 0.273 0.275 0.174 0.354 0.026 0.036 0.529 0.160 0.000

1991 2.057 1.539 0.692 0.847 0.2297 0.2883 0.131 0.245 0.132 0.177 0.118 0.764 0.055 1.61 1.18 0.56 0.62 0.22 0.21 0.23 0.281 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.33 0.03 3.71 0.080 0.089 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.03 0.01 88% 90% 97% 71% 113% 12% 0% 1.091 0.259 0.827 0.171 1.262 0.611 0.473 0.213 0.261 0.055 0.083 0.013 0.135 0.058 0.042 0.027 0.192 0.023 1.079 2.386 1.821 0.848 0.973 0.277 0.288 0.161 0.327 0.062 0.027 0.518 0.148 0.000

1992 2.107 1.645 0.720 0.925 0.2226 0.2397 0.141 0.290 0.127 0.176 0.144 0.799 0.117 1.61 1.19 0.56 0.63 0.23 0.19 0.21 0.289 0.07 0.04 0.00 0.38 0.03 3.78 0.073 0.092 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.04 0.02 82% 86% 104% 79% 96% 23% 0% 1.158 0.276 0.877 0.211 1.368 0.718 0.597 0.261 0.336 0.070 0.051 0.014 0.121 0.058 0.034 0.023 0.209 0.084 1.177 2.494 1.953 0.895 1.058 0.302 0.240 0.149 0.318 0.075 0.023 0.584 0.135 0.000

1993 2.585 2.081 0.883 1.198 0.2435 0.2601 0.149 0.348 0.180 0.196 0.150 0.882 0.056 1.58 1.19 0.56 0.63 0.23 0.16 0.19 0.293 0.06 0.07 0.01 0.42 0.03 3.81 0.065 0.093 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.05 0.03 65% 69% 95% 62% 81% 34% 2% 1.193 0.271 0.919 0.254 1.447 0.772 0.604 0.256 0.348 0.070 0.098 0.013 0.167 0.116 0.050 0.021 0.169 0.021 1.308 2.514 1.952 0.880 1.072 0.302 0.260 0.133 0.367 0.118 0.024 0.592 0.121 0.003

1994 2.697 2.139 0.922 1.216 0.2970 0.2613 0.164 0.401 0.162 0.216 0.169 1.008 0.076 1.55 1.19 0.55 0.63 0.23 0.14 0.16 0.289 0.06 0.10 0.02 0.47 0.04 3.83 0.057 0.092 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.07 0.04 62% 68% 77% 52% 64% 46% 6% 1.347 0.304 1.036 0.304 1.651 0.909 0.702 0.303 0.399 0.082 0.125 0.016 0.131 0.102 0.042 0.020 0.244 0.039 1.463 2.609 2.037 0.914 1.123 0.310 0.261 0.121 0.328 0.146 0.030 0.713 0.105 0.010

1995 2.601 1.999 0.865 1.134 0.3104 0.2914 0.135 0.402 0.165 0.188 0.149 1.025 0.064 1.52 1.19 0.55 0.64 0.22 0.12 0.14 0.282 0.06 0.12 0.03 0.52 0.04 3.86 0.049 0.090 0.01 0.14 0.15 0.10 0.05 66% 74% 70% 41% 67% 65% 13% 1.313 0.290 1.017 0.340 1.653 0.932 0.679 0.294 0.385 0.079 0.173 0.015 0.151 0.108 0.045 0.023 0.226 0.026 1.500 2.594 2.005 0.895 1.110 0.298 0.291 0.105 0.343 0.177 0.042 0.745 0.090 0.020

1996 2.871 2.284 0.980 1.304 0.3455 0.2415 0.152 0.471 0.158 0.198 0.160 1.148 0.110 1.51 1.19 0.55 0.64 0.21 0.11 0.13 0.274 0.06 0.13 0.05 0.57 0.04 3.91 0.044 0.087 0.02 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.06 58% 66% 60% 45% 53% 68% 20% 1.413 0.355 1.051 0.338 1.751 0.972 0.752 0.322 0.429 0.088 0.133 0.015 0.165 0.103 0.036 0.020 0.233 0.071 1.544 2.612 2.075 0.918 1.157 0.295 0.241 0.096 0.352 0.188 0.052 0.804 0.081 0.031

1997 2.779 2.241 0.952 1.289 0.3231 0.2150 0.124 0.403 0.217 0.206 0.158 1.130 0.084 1.50 1.20 0.55 0.65 0.19 0.11 0.12 0.271 0.06 0.14 0.07 0.63 0.04 3.99 0.043 0.086 0.03 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.08 59% 70% 60% 49% 64% 68% 30% 1.400 0.349 1.041 0.336 1.736 0.948 0.751 0.319 0.432 0.088 0.109 0.022 0.183 0.162 0.036 0.016 0.234 0.043 1.601 2.578 2.081 0.915 1.165 0.282 0.215 0.102 0.368 0.201 0.062 0.861 0.079 0.047

1998 2.977 2.439 1.055 1.384 0.333 0.204 0.128 0.414 0.192 0.194 0.156 1.260 0.133 1.50 1.21 0.56 0.65 0.18 0.11 0.13 0.278 0.06 0.14 0.09 0.68 0.04 4.07 0.045 0.088 0.03 0.13 0.17 0.20 0.10 55% 68% 55% 52% 65% 71% 38% 1.474 0.374 1.091 0.374 1.848 0.977 0.786 0.340 0.446 0.092 0.099 0.016 0.196 0.136 0.031 0.020 0.229 0.092 1.604 2.606 2.129 0.941 1.188 0.273 0.204 0.099 0.386 0.200 0.079 0.907 0.084 0.058

1999 3.126 2.528 1.114 1.415 0.359 0.239 0.125 0.425 0.182 0.211 0.158 1.293 0.100 1.50 1.22 0.56 0.66 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.288 0.06 0.13 0.10 0.72 0.04 4.16 0.050 0.091 0.04 0.14 0.18 0.24 0.12 54% 68% 49% 44% 75% 60% 42% 1.604 0.408 1.198 0.338 1.942 1.055 0.824 0.363 0.461 0.096 0.135 0.008 0.209 0.125 0.066 0.031 0.268 0.059 1.762 2.696 2.186 0.972 1.213 0.272 0.239 0.101 0.405 0.229 0.097 0.992 0.093 0.066

2000 3.137 2.550 1.123 1.427 0.387 0.200 0.121 0.436 0.144 0.232 0.155 1.360 0.108 1.51 1.23 0.56 0.67 0.17 0.10 0.160 0.302 0.059 0.124 0.110 0.76 0.04 4.25 0.056 0.096 0.039 0.15 0.19 0.28 0.14 54% 71% 45% 52% 86% 53% 46% 1.574 0.397 1.175 0.281 1.855 1.006 0.816 0.359 0.456 0.095 0.095 0.008 0.201 0.085 0.065 0.030 0.258 0.068 1.653 2.664 2.195 0.975 1.220 0.269 0.200 0.112 0.408 0.228 0.101 1.023 0.104 0.071

2001 3.063 2.489 1.091 1.399 0.417 0.157 0.123 0.447 0.107 0.229 0.160 1.054 0.107 1.52 1.24 0.56 0.68 0.18 0.11 0.17 0.315 0.06 0.13 0.11 0.80 0.04 4.35 0.061 0.100 0.04 0.16 0.20 0.32 0.16 56% 75% 43% 68% 91% 58% 45% 1.571 0.391 1.179 0.196 1.767 0.965 0.820 0.359 0.460 0.095 0.050 0.007 0.198 0.047 0.065 0.027 0.255 0.067 1.565 2.648 2.216 0.980 1.236 0.274 0.157 0.120 0.413 0.236 0.100 1.054 0.112 0.073

2002 3.201 2.589 1.230 1.359 0.449 0.163 0.117 0.458 0.118 0.225 0.157 1.102 0.073 1.54 1.25 0.56 0.69 0.19 0.11 0.18 0.326 0.06 0.14 0.11 0.83 0.04 4.43 0.063 0.103 0.04 0.17 0.20 0.35 0.18 55% 75% 42% 67% 99% 64% 44% 1.648 0.390 1.320 0.174 1.822 0.996 0.844 0.401 0.443 0.098 0.053 0.008 0.215 0.056 0.067 0.031 0.276 0.033 1.650 2.706 2.258 1.024 1.234 0.285 0.163 0.124 0.438 0.248 0.100 1.102 0.116 0.069

2003 3.265 2.639 1.195 1.443 0.483 0.143 0.127 0.469 0.135 0.233 0.148 1.110 0.040 1.58 1.27 0.56 0.70 0.20 0.11 0.18 0.330 0.06 0.16 0.10 0.85 0.04 4.52 0.062 0.105 0.03 0.17 0.20 0.38 0.19 54% 76% 41% 78% 90% 68% 43% 1.678 0.387 1.461 0.138 1.816 1.032 0.896 0.406 0.490 0.104 0.031 0.007 0.204 0.074 0.071 0.025 0.262 0.000 1.674 2.777 2.332 1.033 1.300 0.302 0.143 0.121 0.430 0.264 0.089 1.110 0.115 0.064

2004 2.793 2.465 1.740 0.725 0.327 0.144 0.119 0.470 0.104 0.285 0.093 1.154 0.070 1.61 1.29 0.57 0.73 0.21 0.11 0.17 0.328 0.06 0.17 0.09 0.87 0.04 4.60 0.060 0.104 0.03 0.16 0.20 0.40 0.20 59% 83% 64% 76% 93% 61% 63% 1.899 0.405 1.494 0.123 2.022 1.159 1.007 1.112 -0.105 0.117 0.035 0.009 0.246 0.042 0.078 0.034 0.287 0.030 1.855 2.936 2.465 1.740 0.725 0.327 0.144 0.119 0.470 0.285 0.093 1.154 0.110 0.059

2005 2.716 2.388 1.632 0.756 0.328 0.139 0.113 0.446 0.108 0.286 0.084 1.154 0.074 1.64 1.32 0.57 0.75 0.22 0.10 0.16 0.322 0.06 0.19 0.08 0.89 0.04 4.66 0.057 0.102 0.03 0.16 0.19 0.40 0.20 62% 87% 68% 74% 93% 65% 64% 1.727 0.366 1.361 0.130 1.857 1.054 0.912 1.007 -0.095 0.106 0.036 0.008 0.226 0.045 0.071 0.031 0.264 0.032 1.701 2.855 2.388 1.632 0.756 0.328 0.139 0.113 0.446 0.286 0.084 1.154 0.105 0.054

2006 2.704 2.372 1.590 0.782 0.332 0.139 0.107 0.418 0.115 0.279 0.080 1.157 0.080 1.66 1.34 0.56 0.77 0.23 0.10 0.15 0.315 0.06 0.18 0.08 0.92 0.04 4.71 0.054 0.100 0.03 0.15 0.18 0.40 0.20 63% 88% 69% 69% 93% 66% 64% 1.628 0.345 1.283 0.147 1.775 1.028 0.882 0.974 -0.092 0.103 0.043 0.008 0.203 0.050 0.067 0.029 0.237 0.035 1.622 2.843 2.372 1.590 0.782 0.332 0.139 0.107 0.418 0.279 0.080 1.157 0.100 0.051

2007 2.743 2.403 1.596 0.807 0.340 0.142 0.104 0.414 0.130 0.278 0.081 1.195 0.089 1.67 1.35 0.55 0.80 0.24 0.09 0.15 0.312 0.07 0.18 0.08 0.96 0.05 4.78 0.052 0.099 0.03 0.15 0.18 0.38 0.19 63% 86% 69% 61% 93% 65% 64% 1.642 0.349 1.293 0.182 1.824 1.058 0.899 0.993 -0.094 0.105 0.055 0.008 0.201 0.061 0.068 0.029 0.235 0.043 1.660 2.885 2.403 1.596 0.807 0.340 0.142 0.104 0.414 0.278 0.081 1.195 0.096 0.052

2008 2.764 2.419 1.578 0.841 0.345 0.146 0.102 0.406 0.142 0.277 0.085 1.225 0.097 1.69 1.37 0.53 0.83 0.24 0.08 0.15 0.317 0.07 0.18 0.09 1.00 0.05 4.86 0.051 0.101 0.03 0.15 0.18 0.35 0.18 63% 85% 70% 55% 93% 65% 66% 1.611 0.342 1.269 0.210 1.822 1.069 0.899 0.992 -0.094 0.105 0.066 0.008 0.190 0.069 0.067 0.029 0.222 0.049 1.653 2.910 2.419 1.578 0.841 0.345 0.146 0.102 0.406 0.277 0.085 1.225 0.095 0.056

2009 2.786 2.434 1.552 0.883 0.352 0.155 0.101 0.404 0.157 0.278 0.091 1.256 0.104 1.71 1.39 0.52 0.87 0.25 0.08 0.14 0.329 0.08 0.18 0.10 1.05 0.05 4.98 0.051 0.104 0.03 0.16 0.19 0.32 0.16 63% 83% 70% 51% 93% 64% 69% 1.575 0.338 1.237 0.234 1.809 1.072 0.892 0.985 -0.093 0.104 0.076 0.007 0.179 0.076 0.065 0.028 0.209 0.053 1.637 2.940 2.434 1.552 0.883 0.352 0.155 0.101 0.404 0.278 0.091 1.256 0.094 0.063

2010 2.843 2.480 1.551 0.929 0.363 0.164 0.100 0.412 0.168 0.284 0.099 1.292 0.107 1.75 1.41 0.50 0.91 0.26 0.08 0.14 0.347 0.09 0.18 0.11 1.09 0.05 5.13 0.050 0.110 0.04 0.16 0.20 0.28 0.14 63% 81% 71% 51% 93% 63% 72% 1.582 0.339 1.242 0.241 1.822 1.093 0.907 1.002 -0.095 0.106 0.081 0.007 0.175 0.077 0.065 0.028 0.205 0.054 1.651 3.007 2.480 1.551 0.929 0.363 0.164 0.100 0.412 0.284 0.099 1.292 0.092 0.071

2011 2.918 2.541 1.559 0.982 0.377 0.173 0.098 0.428 0.176 0.294 0.107 1.329 0.107 1.81 1.45 0.49 0.96 0.27 0.09 0.14 0.368 0.10 0.19 0.12 1.12 0.05 5.30 0.049 0.117 0.04 0.17 0.21 0.24 0.12 64% 78% 71% 53% 92% 63% 73% 1.605 0.344 1.261 0.239 1.845 1.115 0.926 1.022 -0.097 0.108 0.081 0.007 0.176 0.076 0.066 0.029 0.206 0.054 1.675 3.092 2.541 1.559 0.982 0.377 0.173 0.098 0.428 0.294 0.107 1.329 0.090 0.079

2012 2.967 2.577 1.535 1.042 0.390 0.183 0.095 0.440 0.181 0.299 0.113 1.357 0.105 1.89 1.50 0.48 1.01 0.28 0.11 0.135 0.387 0.11 0.19 0.13 1.15 0.05 5.48 0.047 0.123 0.05 0.17 0.216 0.20 0.10 65% 76% 73% 57% 92% 63% 75% 1.581 0.339 1.242 0.229 1.810 1.094 0.910 1.005 -0.095 0.106 0.078 0.007 0.175 0.073 0.065 0.028 0.205 0.052 1.647 3.150 2.577 1.535 1.042 0.390 0.183 0.095 0.440 0.299 0.113 1.357 0.087 0.085

2013 3.038 2.633 1.532 1.100 0.405 0.193 0.092 0.453 0.184 0.302 0.117 1.377 0.103 1.97 1.55 0.49 1.07 0.30 0.12 0.13 0.405 0.11 0.19 0.14 1.17 0.05 5.67 0.046 0.129 0.05 0.17 0.22 0.16 0.08 66% 75% 74% 61% 92% 62% 76% 1.576 0.339 1.238 0.224 1.800 1.086 0.905 0.999 -0.094 0.105 0.076 0.007 0.177 0.072 0.065 0.028 0.206 0.051 1.642 3.231 2.633 1.532 1.100 0.405 0.193 0.092 0.453 0.302 0.117 1.377 0.084 0.089

2014 3.129 2.705 1.552 1.153 0.424 0.200 0.090 0.465 0.186 0.303 0.119 1.389 0.101 2.06 1.62 0.50 1.12 0.32 0.13 0.13 0.417 0.11 0.19 0.14 1.18 0.05 5.84 0.044 0.132 0.05 0.18 0.23 0.13 0.06 66% 73% 75% 63% 92% 62% 76% 1.594 0.342 1.251 0.222 1.816 1.092 0.912 1.007 -0.095 0.106 0.074 0.007 0.181 0.072 0.066 0.028 0.212 0.051 1.659 3.329 2.705 1.552 1.153 0.424 0.200 0.090 0.465 0.303 0.119 1.389 0.082 0.091

2015 3.191 2.753 0.874 1.879 0.438 0.196 0.088 0.471 0.179 0.302 0.119 1.384 0.096 2.15 1.69 0.53 1.16 0.33 0.13 0.12 0.426 0.11 0.19 0.14 1.17 0.05 6.00 0.044 0.135 0.05 0.18 0.23 0.10 0.05 68% 73% 76% 65% 92% 62% 77% 1.558 0.334 1.224 0.209 1.767 1.060 0.887 0.300 0.587 0.103 0.069 0.007 0.180 0.068 0.064 0.028 0.210 0.048 1.618 3.386 2.753 0.874 1.879 0.438 0.196 0.088 0.471 0.302 0.119 1.384 0.081 0.092

2016 3.271 2.816 0.913 1.903 0.455 0.185 0.086 0.472 0.167 0.301 0.119 1.378 0.090 2.24 1.77 0.58 1.19 0.35 0.12 0.12 0.433 0.10 0.19 0.14 1.17 0.04 6.16 0.043 0.138 0.05 0.18 0.23 0.07 0.04 69% 73% 78% 64% 92% 62% 77% 1.526 0.327 1.199 0.199 1.725 1.038 0.870 0.294 0.576 0.101 0.066 0.007 0.176 0.065 0.063 0.027 0.206 0.046 1.582 3.456 2.816 0.913 1.903 0.455 0.185 0.086 0.472 0.301 0.119 1.378 0.079 0.092

2017 3.365 2.894 0.971 1.923 0.470 0.172 0.085 0.474 0.154 0.303 0.121 1.376 0.085 2.33 1.85 0.64 1.21 0.37 0.11 0.12 0.439 0.09 0.19 0.14 1.17 0.04 6.33 0.042 0.140 0.05 0.18 0.23 0.05 0.03 70% 73% 79% 63% 92% 63% 78% 1.510 0.323 1.187 0.192 1.703 1.027 0.863 0.292 0.571 0.101 0.064 0.007 0.175 0.063 0.062 0.027 0.204 0.044 1.565 3.537 2.894 0.971 1.923 0.470 0.172 0.085 0.474 0.303 0.121 1.376 0.078 0.094

2018 3.461 2.980 1.044 1.936 0.481 0.158 0.084 0.479 0.142 0.307 0.123 1.382 0.083 2.42 1.94 0.71 1.22 0.38 0.10 0.12 0.444 0.08 0.19 0.15 1.18 0.04 6.51 0.042 0.141 0.05 0.18 0.23 0.04 0.02 71% 73% 79% 61% 92% 63% 78% 1.508 0.322 1.186 0.186 1.694 1.021 0.859 0.289 0.570 0.100 0.062 0.007 0.176 0.062 0.062 0.027 0.206 0.043 1.561 3.619 2.980 1.044 1.936 0.481 0.158 0.084 0.479 0.307 0.123 1.382 0.077 0.096

2019 3.560 3.071 1.128 1.943 0.490 0.140 0.083 0.485 0.131 0.312 0.126 1.395 0.081 2.50 2.03 0.80 1.23 0.39 0.08 0.12 0.446 0.07 0.20 0.15 1.18 0.04 6.68 0.041 0.142 0.05 0.18 0.24 0.03 0.01 72% 73% 79% 58% 91% 63% 78% 1.522 0.324 1.198 0.180 1.702 1.023 0.863 0.288 0.575 0.101 0.059 0.007 0.181 0.060 0.063 0.027 0.211 0.042 1.572 3.701 3.071 1.128 1.943 0.490 0.140 0.083 0.485 0.312 0.126 1.395 0.075 0.098

2020 3.648 3.156 1.219 1.937 0.493 0.123 0.081 0.490 0.123 0.315 0.128 1.413 0.082 2.56 2.107 0.892 1.216 0.39 0.07 0.11 0.447 0.06 0.20 0.15 1.20 0.04 6.84 0.040 0.142 0.05 0.18 0.24 0.02 0.01 73% 73% 80% 53% 91% 63% 79% 1.536 0.326 1.210 0.177 1.712 1.025 0.867 0.287 0.579 0.101 0.057 0.0072 0.185 0.060 0.0635 0.027 0.216 0.042 1.584 3.772 3.156 1.219 1.937 0.493 0.123 0.081 0.490 0.315 0.128 1.413 0.073 0.100

2021 3.709 3.220 1.310 1.911 0.489 0.109 0.078 0.490 0.117 0.319 0.129 1.435 0.083 2.62 2.18 0.99 1.19 0.39 0.05 0.11 0.444 0.06 0.20 0.16 1.22 0.04 6.99 0.039 0.141 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.01 0.01 73% 74% 79% 49% 91% 63% 79% 1.532 0.326 1.206 0.172 1.704 1.016 0.861 0.284 0.576 0.100 0.055 0.007 0.187 0.059 0.063 0.027 0.219 0.041 1.579 3.818 3.220 1.310 1.911 0.489 0.109 0.078 0.490 0.319 0.129 1.435 0.071 0.102

2022 3.756 3.279 1.403 1.876 0.477 0.097 0.076 0.489 0.115 0.323 0.129 1.464 0.085 2.67 2.24 1.08 1.16 0.38 0.04 0.11 0.439 0.06 0.20 0.16 1.24 0.04 7.12 0.037 0.139 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.01 0.00 74% 74% 79% 45% 91% 63% 79% 1.533 0.328 1.205 0.168 1.701 1.012 0.859 0.283 0.575 0.100 0.053 0.007 0.190 0.058 0.063 0.027 0.222 0.041 1.579 3.854 3.279 1.403 1.876 0.477 0.097 0.076 0.489 0.323 0.129 1.464 0.069 0.102

2023 3.796 3.329 1.494 1.835 0.468 0.093 0.074 0.486 0.115 0.327 0.129 1.491 0.086 2.70 2.30 1.17 1.12 0.37 0.04 0.10 0.432 0.06 0.21 0.16 1.27 0.05 7.23 0.036 0.137 0.06 0.17 0.23 0.00 0.00 74% 74% 79% 45% 90% 64% 79% 1.537 0.331 1.206 0.163 1.701 1.011 0.859 0.284 0.575 0.100 0.052 0.007 0.191 0.056 0.064 0.027 0.224 0.040 1.581 3.890 3.329 1.494 1.835 0.468 0.093 0.074 0.486 0.327 0.129 1.491 0.067 0.102

2024 3.822 3.363 1.579 1.784 0.459 0.095 0.073 0.483 0.117 0.332 0.129 1.517 0.088 2.74 2.34 1.26 1.08 0.36 0.04 0.10 0.426 0.06 0.21 0.16 1.29 0.05 7.33 0.035 0.135 0.06 0.17 0.23 0.00 0.00 75% 75% 78% 47% 90% 64% 79% 1.531 0.331 1.200 0.159 1.690 1.003 0.853 0.282 0.571 0.099 0.050 0.007 0.193 0.055 0.063 0.027 0.225 0.039 1.574 3.916 3.363 1.579 1.784 0.459 0.095 0.073 0.483 0.332 0.129 1.517 0.066 0.102

2025 3.848 3.395 1.651 1.744 0.454 0.098 0.071 0.482 0.119 0.339 0.127 1.540 0.088 2.78 2.38 1.34 1.04 0.35 0.05 0.10 0.422 0.07 0.22 0.15 1.31 0.05 7.43 0.035 0.134 0.05 0.17 0.22 0.00 0.00 75% 75% 78% 51% 90% 65% 79% 1.527 0.332 1.195 0.154 1.682 0.997 0.850 0.281 0.568 0.099 0.048 0.007 0.194 0.054 0.063 0.027 0.226 0.038 1.568 3.947 3.395 1.651 1.744 0.454 0.098 0.071 0.482 0.339 0.127 1.540 0.064 0.100

2026 3.881 3.428 1.703 1.725 0.453 0.106 0.070 0.484 0.122 0.346 0.124 1.564 0.088 2.82 2.41 1.39 1.02 0.35 0.06 0.10 0.422 0.07 0.23 0.15 1.33 0.05 7.53 0.034 0.134 0.05 0.17 0.22 0.00 0.00 75% 75% 78% 55% 90% 67% 78% 1.535 0.334 1.201 0.154 1.689 0.999 0.851 0.281 0.571 0.099 0.048 0.007 0.197 0.054 0.063 0.027 0.230 0.038 1.577 3.987 3.428 1.703 1.725 0.453 0.106 0.070 0.484 0.346 0.124 1.564 0.063 0.096

2027 3.919 3.461 1.738 1.723 0.458 0.113 0.069 0.489 0.125 0.352 0.118 1.584 0.088 2.86 2.44 1.42 1.02 0.36 0.07 0.09 0.425 0.07 0.24 0.14 1.35 0.05 7.62 0.033 0.135 0.05 0.17 0.22 0.00 0.00 75% 75% 78% 58% 90% 68% 77% 1.543 0.336 1.207 0.154 1.697 1.000 0.853 0.280 0.573 0.099 0.048 0.007 0.200 0.055 0.064 0.027 0.233 0.038 1.586 4.032 3.461 1.738 1.723 0.458 0.113 0.069 0.489 0.352 0.118 1.584 0.061 0.090

2028 3.962 3.494 1.755 1.739 0.468 0.119 0.067 0.497 0.127 0.359 0.110 1.601 0.087 2.91 2.47 1.44 1.03 0.37 0.07 0.09 0.431 0.07 0.25 0.13 1.37 0.05 7.72 0.032 0.137 0.04 0.17 0.21 0.00 0.00 76% 76% 79% 60% 89% 70% 75% 1.550 0.337 1.213 0.154 1.705 1.002 0.855 0.280 0.575 0.100 0.047 0.007 0.202 0.055 0.064 0.028 0.236 0.039 1.595 4.081 3.494 1.755 1.739 0.468 0.119 0.067 0.497 0.359 0.110 1.601 0.060 0.083

2029 4.009 3.529 1.757 1.771 0.480 0.123 0.066 0.505 0.128 0.365 0.101 1.616 0.086 2.96 2.50 1.45 1.05 0.38 0.08 0.09 0.439 0.07 0.26 0.11 1.38 0.05 7.81 0.032 0.140 0.04 0.17 0.21 0.00 0.00 76% 76% 79% 62% 89% 72% 73% 1.558 0.339 1.219 0.154 1.712 1.004 0.857 0.279 0.577 0.100 0.047 0.007 0.205 0.055 0.064 0.028 0.240 0.039 1.603 4.132 3.529 1.757 1.771 0.480 0.123 0.066 0.505 0.365 0.101 1.616 0.059 0.073

2030 4.062 3.568 1.748 1.820 0.494 0.124 0.065 0.514 0.127 0.369 0.094 1.630 0.086 3.01 2.537 1.438 1.098 0.39 0.08 0.09 0.448 0.07 0.27 0.10 1.39 0.05 7.91 0.031 0.142 0.04 0.17 0.21 0.00 0.00 76% 76% 80% 62% 89% 73% 70% 1.566 0.341 1.225 0.154 1.720 1.005 0.858 0.279 0.580 0.100 0.047 0.007 0.208 0.056 0.065 0.028 0.243 0.039 1.612 4.186 3.568 1.748 1.820 0.494 0.124 0.065 0.514 0.369 0.094 1.630 0.057 0.066

2031 4.121 3.612 1.729 1.884 0.508 0.123 0.064 0.523 0.126 0.372 0.088 1.644 0.085 3.06 2.58 1.42 1.16 0.41 0.08 0.09 0.457 0.07 0.27 0.09 1.40 0.05 8.02 0.030 0.145 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.00 76% 76% 80% 62% 88% 74% 68% 1.574 0.343 1.231 0.154 1.728 1.007 0.860 0.278 0.582 0.100 0.046 0.007 0.211 0.056 0.065 0.028 0.247 0.040 1.621 4.244 3.612 1.729 1.884 0.508 0.123 0.064 0.523 0.372 0.088 1.644 0.056 0.060

2032 4.184 3.661 1.700 1.960 0.523 0.121 0.063 0.531 0.124 0.375 0.086 1.658 0.084 3.12 2.62 1.39 1.23 0.42 0.07 0.09 0.464 0.07 0.28 0.09 1.41 0.04 8.13 0.030 0.147 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.00 76% 76% 81% 62% 88% 74% 67% 1.582 0.344 1.237 0.154 1.736 1.008 0.861 0.278 0.584 0.100 0.046 0.007 0.214 0.056 0.065 0.028 0.250 0.040 1.630 4.304 3.661 1.700 1.960 0.523 0.121 0.063 0.531 0.375 0.086 1.658 0.055 0.058

2033 4.252 3.714 1.666 2.048 0.537 0.118 0.062 0.538 0.123 0.379 0.086 1.675 0.083 3.18 2.67 1.36 1.31 0.44 0.07 0.08 0.470 0.07 0.28 0.09 1.42 0.04 8.27 0.029 0.149 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.00 77% 77% 81% 61% 88% 74% 67% 1.590 0.346 1.244 0.154 1.744 1.009 0.863 0.277 0.586 0.101 0.046 0.007 0.217 0.057 0.066 0.028 0.254 0.040 1.639 4.369 3.714 1.666 2.048 0.537 0.118 0.062 0.538 0.379 0.086 1.675 0.054 0.058

2034 4.324 3.773 1.627 2.146 0.551 0.114 0.061 0.545 0.121 0.383 0.089 1.695 0.082 3.25 2.73 1.32 1.41 0.45 0.07 0.08 0.475 0.06 0.28 0.09 1.44 0.04 8.41 0.029 0.151 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.00 77% 77% 82% 60% 88% 74% 68% 1.598 0.348 1.250 0.154 1.752 1.010 0.864 0.276 0.588 0.101 0.045 0.007 0.221 0.057 0.066 0.028 0.258 0.040 1.648 4.439 3.773 1.627 2.146 0.551 0.114 0.061 0.545 0.383 0.089 1.695 0.053 0.061

2035 4.398 3.836 1.589 2.246 0.563 0.111 0.060 0.551 0.120 0.388 0.093 1.717 0.082 3.32 2.79 1.29 1.50 0.46 0.07 0.08 0.479 0.06 0.29 0.10 1.46 0.04 8.57 0.028 0.152 0.03 0.18 0.22 0.00 0.00 77% 77% 82% 59% 87% 74% 69% 1.606 0.349 1.256 0.154 1.760 1.012 0.866 0.276 0.590 0.101 0.045 0.007 0.224 0.058 0.066 0.029 0.261 0.041 1.657 4.509 3.836 1.589 2.246 0.563 0.111 0.060 0.551 0.388 0.093 1.717 0.052 0.064

2036 4.471 3.900 1.567 2.333 0.571 0.108 0.058 0.556 0.119 0.395 0.097 1.741 0.081 3.39 2.85 1.26 1.59 0.47 0.06 0.08 0.48 0.06 0.29 0.10 1.48 0.04 8.73 0.028 0.153 0.04 0.18 0.22 0.00 0.00 78% 78% 82% 59% 87% 74% 70% 1.614 0.351 1.262 0.154 1.768 1.013 0.867 0.275 0.592 0.101 0.045 0.008 0.227 0.058 0.067 0.029 0.265 0.041 1.666 4.579 3.900 1.567 2.333 0.571 0.108 0.058 0.556 0.395 0.097 1.741 0.051 0.068

2037 4.542 3.965 1.558 2.407 0.577 0.105 0.057 0.560 0.118 0.401 0.100 1.766 0.081 3.45 2.92 1.26 1.66 0.48 0.06 0.08 0.48 0.06 0.30 0.11 1.50 0.04 8.89 0.027 0.154 0.04 0.18 0.22 0.00 0.00 78% 78% 82% 58% 87% 74% 71% 1.622 0.353 1.269 0.154 1.776 1.014 0.868 0.274 0.594 0.101 0.044 0.008 0.230 0.058 0.067 0.029 0.269 0.041 1.675 4.647 3.965 1.558 2.407 0.577 0.105 0.057 0.560 0.401 0.100 1.766 0.050 0.071

2038 4.610 4.030 1.564 2.467 0.580 0.103 0.056 0.565 0.117 0.406 0.103 1.792 0.081 3.52 2.98 1.26 1.72 0.48 0.06 0.07 0.49 0.06 0.30 0.11 1.52 0.04 9.05 0.026 0.154 0.04 0.18 0.22 0.00 0.00 78% 78% 83% 57% 86% 74% 72% 1.630 0.355 1.275 0.154 1.784 1.015 0.869 0.273 0.596 0.101 0.044 0.008 0.233 0.059 0.067 0.029 0.273 0.041 1.684 4.713 4.030 1.564 2.467 0.580 0.103 0.056 0.565 0.406 0.103 1.792 0.049 0.074

1

SF + MF Completions Gas Furnace

Base Case Shipments

Heat Pump

Shipments (million)

Oil Replacements 

Less Conversions

Modeled New Construction Installations (million)

Gas Furnace Electric Furnace Heat Pump Gas Furnace

Modeled Shipments -- sum of Replacements, Conversions, and New Housing (million)

Conversion Rates

Modeled Replacements (mllion) Conversions from (million) Percentage of Shipments which are to Existing Homes

Gas Furnace Electric Furnace Heat Pump Gas Furnace Electric Furnace
Non-Weatherized Furnaces Mobile Home Furnaces

New Housing 

MS - US

New Housing 

MS- Cold

New Housing 

MS - Warm

New 

Construction - 

US

New 

Construction - 

Cold

New 

Construction - 

Warm

Replacement

s -US

Replacement

s -Cold

Replacement

s -Warm Total - US Total - Cold Total - Warm New Housing MS - US

New Housing 

MS- Cold

New Housing 

MS - Warm

New 

Construction - 

US

New 

Construction - 

Cold

New 

Construction - 

Warm

Replacement

s -US

Replacement

s -Cold

Replacement

s -Warm Total - US Total - Cold Total - Warm New Housing MS - US

New Housing 

MS- Cold

New Housing 

MS - Warm

New 

Construction - 

US

New 

Construction - 

Cold

New 

Construction - 

Warm

Replacement

s -US

Replacement

s -Cold

Replacement

s -Warm Total - US Total - Cold Total - Warm New Housing MS - US

New Housing 

MS- Cold

New Housing 

MS - Warm

New 

Construction - 

US

New 

Construction - 

Cold

New 

Construction - 

Warm

Replacement

s -US

Replacement

s -Cold

Replacement

s -Warm Total - US Total - Cold Total - Warm

New 

Housing 

MS - US

New 

Housing 

MS- Cold

New 

Housing 

MS - 

New 

Construct

ion - US

New 

Construct

ion - 

New 

Construct

ion - 

Replacem

ents -US

Replace

ments -

Cold

Replace

ments -

Warm

Total - 

US

Total - 

Cold

Total - 

Warm

New 

Housing 

Market 

New 

Construct

ion

Replacem

ents Total

New 

Housing 

Market 

New 

Construct

ion

Replace

ments Total

New 

Housing 

Market 

New 

Construct

ion

Replace

ments Total

New 

Housing 

Market 

New 

Construct

ion

Replace

ments Total

New 

Housing 

Market 

New 

Construct

ion

Replace

ments Total

2015 -0.0006% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.79% -0.72% -2.08% -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.58% -2.65% -7.65% -0.102 -0.009 -0.094 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.22% -0.0005 -0.0005 -1.85% -0.004 -0.00385 -6.36% -0.013 -0.01328 -6.36% -0.013 -0.01328

2016 -0.001% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.79% -0.72% -2.08% -0.027 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.02 -6.58% -2.65% -7.65% -0.100 -0.009 -0.092 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.85% -0.004 0.000 -0.00368 -6.37% -0.013 0.000 -0.01269 -6.37% -0.013 0.000 -0.01269

2017 -0.001% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.79% -0.72% -2.08% -0.027 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.02 -6.59% -2.66% -7.66% -0.100 -0.009 -0.091 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.85% -0.004 0.000 -0.00356 -6.39% -0.012 0.000 -0.01227 -6.39% -0.012 0.000 -0.01227

2018 -0.001% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.79% -0.72% -2.08% -0.027 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.02 -6.60% -2.66% -7.67% -0.100 -0.009 -0.091 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.86% -0.003 0.000 -0.00347 -6.40% -0.012 0.000 -0.01194 -6.40% -0.012 0.000 -0.01194

2019 -0.001% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.79% -0.72% -2.08% -0.027 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.02 -6.61% -2.66% -7.67% -0.101 -0.009 -0.092 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.86% -0.003 0.000 -0.00335 -6.42% -0.012 0.000 -0.01154 -6.42% -0.012 0.000 -0.01154

2020 -0.001% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.80% -0.72% -2.08% -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 -6.61% -2.66% -7.68% -0.102 -0.009 -0.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.102 -0.009 -0.093 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.87% -0.003 0.000 -0.00330 -6.43% -0.011 0.000 -0.01135 -6.43% -0.011 0.000 -0.01135

2021 -0.001% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.80% -0.72% -2.09% -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.62% -2.67% -7.69% -0.101 -0.009 -0.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.87% -0.003 0.000 -0.00323 -6.45% -0.011 0.000 -0.01112 -6.45% -0.011 0.000 -0.01112

2022 -0.001% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.80% -0.73% -2.09% -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.63% -2.67% -7.70% -0.102 -0.009 -0.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.87% -0.003 0.000 -0.00315 -6.46% -0.011 0.000 -0.01084 -6.46% -0.011 0.000 -0.01084

2023 -0.001% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.80% -0.73% -2.10% -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.63% -2.68% -7.72% -0.102 -0.009 -0.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.88% -0.003 0.000 -0.00307 -6.47% -0.011 0.000 -0.01058 -6.47% -0.011 0.000 -0.01058

2024 -0.001% -0.0002% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.80% -0.73% -2.10% -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.64% -2.68% -7.73% -0.102 -0.009 -0.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.88% -0.003 0.000 -0.00299 -6.49% -0.010 0.000 -0.01031 -6.49% -0.010 0.000 -0.01031

2025 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.80% -0.73% -2.10% -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.65% -2.69% -7.75% -0.102 -0.009 -0.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.89% -0.003 0.000 -0.00291 -6.50% -0.010 0.000 -0.01003 -6.50% -0.010 -0.001 -0.01076

2026 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.81% -0.73% -2.11% -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.65% -2.69% -7.76% -0.102 -0.009 -0.093 -0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.10 -0.01 -0.09 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.89% -0.003 0.000 -0.00292 -6.52% -0.010 0.000 -0.01030 -6.52% -0.010 -0.003 -0.01297

2027 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.81% -0.73% -2.11% -0.028 -0.002 -0.025 -0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.66% -2.69% -7.76% -0.103 -0.009 -0.094 -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.11 -0.01 -0.10 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.90% -0.003 0.000 -0.00308 -6.53% -0.010 -0.001 -0.01082 -6.53% -0.010 -0.007 -0.01729

2028 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.81% -0.73% -2.11% -0.028 -0.002 -0.026 -0.002 0.000 -0.002 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.67% -2.70% -7.77% -0.103 -0.009 -0.094 -0.006 -0.001 -0.006 -0.11 -0.01 -0.10 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.90% -0.003 0.000 -0.00339 -6.55% -0.010 -0.001 -0.01157 -6.55% -0.010 -0.014 -0.02441

2029 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.81% -0.73% -2.11% -0.028 -0.002 -0.026 -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.67% -2.70% -7.78% -0.104 -0.009 -0.095 -0.010 -0.001 -0.009 -0.11 -0.01 -0.10 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.90% -0.003 -0.001 -0.00384 -6.56% -0.010 -0.002 -0.01255 -6.56% -0.010 -0.024 -0.03363

2030 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.81% -0.73% -2.11% -0.028 -0.002 -0.026 -0.004 0.000 -0.004 -0.033 -0.003 -0.030 -6.68% -2.70% -7.79% -0.105 -0.009 -0.095 -0.015 -0.001 -0.014 -0.120 -0.011 -0.109 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.91% -0.003 -0.001 -0.00442 -6.57% -0.010 -0.004 -0.01374 -6.57% -0.010 -0.034 -0.04431

2031 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.81% -0.73% -2.12% -0.029 -0.003 -0.026 -0.006 0.000 -0.005 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 -6.68% -2.70% -7.79% -0.105 -0.009 -0.096 -0.021 -0.002 -0.019 -0.13 -0.01 -0.12 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0004 -0.22% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.91% -0.003 -0.002 -0.00515 -6.59% -0.010 -0.005 -0.01516 -6.59% -0.010 -0.046 -0.05584

2032 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.82% -0.73% -2.12% -0.029 -0.003 -0.026 -0.008 -0.001 -0.007 -0.04 0.00 -0.03 -6.69% -2.70% -7.80% -0.106 -0.009 -0.097 -0.028 -0.002 -0.026 -0.13 -0.01 -0.12 -0.23% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0005 -0.23% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.92% -0.003 -0.003 -0.00569 -6.60% -0.010 -0.007 -0.01678 -6.60% -0.010 -0.057 -0.06763

2033 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.82% -0.73% -2.12% -0.029 -0.003 -0.026 -0.010 -0.001 -0.009 -0.04 0.00 -0.04 -6.70% -2.71% -7.81% -0.106 -0.009 -0.097 -0.036 -0.003 -0.033 -0.14 -0.01 -0.13 -0.23% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0005 -0.23% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.92% -0.003 -0.003 -0.00608 -6.62% -0.010 -0.008 -0.01814 -6.62% -0.010 -0.069 -0.07912

2034 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.82% -0.74% -2.12% -0.029 -0.003 -0.027 -0.012 -0.001 -0.011 -0.04 0.00 -0.04 -6.70% -2.71% -7.81% -0.107 -0.009 -0.098 -0.045 -0.004 -0.041 -0.15 -0.01 -0.14 -0.23% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0005 -0.23% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.92% -0.003 -0.003 -0.00630 -6.63% -0.010 -0.009 -0.01925 -6.63% -0.010 -0.080 -0.09033

2035 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.82% -0.74% -2.12% -0.029 -0.003 -0.027 -0.015 -0.001 -0.014 -0.04 0.00 -0.04 -6.71% -2.71% -7.82% -0.108 -0.009 -0.098 -0.055 -0.005 -0.051 -0.16 -0.01 -0.15 -0.23% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0006 -0.23% -0.0003 0.000 -0.0003 -1.93% -0.003 -0.003 -0.00636 -6.65% -0.010 -0.010 -0.02011 -6.65% -0.010 -0.091 -0.10128

2036 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.82% -0.74% -2.12% -0.029 -0.003 -0.027 -0.018 -0.002 -0.016 -0.05 0.00 -0.04 -6.71% -2.71% -7.82% -0.108 -0.010 -0.099 -0.065 -0.006 -0.059 -0.17 -0.02 -0.16 -0.23% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0006 -0.23% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.93% -0.003 -0.003 -0.00628 -6.66% -0.010 -0.010 -0.02074 -6.66% -0.010 -0.102 -0.11197

2037 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.82% -0.74% -2.13% -0.030 -0.003 -0.027 -0.020 -0.002 -0.018 -0.05 0.00 -0.04 -6.72% -2.72% -7.83% -0.109 -0.010 -0.099 -0.073 -0.006 -0.066 -0.18 -0.02 -0.17 -0.23% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0006 -0.23% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0004 -1.94% -0.003 -0.003 -0.00621 -6.67% -0.010 -0.011 -0.02115 -6.67% -0.010 -0.112 -0.12245

2038 -0.001% -0.0003% -0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001% 0.00% 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.20% -0.08% -0.23% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -1.82% -0.74% -2.13% -0.030 -0.003 -0.027 -0.022 -0.002 -0.020 -0.05 0.00 -0.05 -6.72% -2.72% -7.84% -0.110 -0.010 -0.100 -0.080 -0.007 -0.073 -0.19 -0.02 -0.17 -0.23% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0007 -0.23% -0.0004 0.000 -0.0005 -1.94% -0.003 -0.003 -0.00614 -6.69% -0.010 -0.011 -0.02134 -6.69% -0.010 -0.122 -0.13276

90% AFUE Condensing

Change in Shipments from Standards

Incremental Shipments (Millions)

80% AFUE - Increased HXArea 80% AFUE - Increased HXArea 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 90% AFUE 96% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous) 90% AFUE Condensing

Incremental Shipments (Millions) Incremental Shipments (Millions) Incremental Shipments (Millions) Incremental Shipments (Millions) Incremental Shipments (Millions)

80% AFUE - Increased HX Area 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area
Percent Electric Central Heating that is Electric Furnace Percent Electric Central Heating which is Electric Furnace

NonCentral Heating decline factor

0.978 Model Parameters Model Parameters Model Parameters

Total Gas share of Total Fuel Equipment 2003 MS Fuel Equipment 2003 MS Fuel Equipment 2003 MS

Gas Oil Electric Gas Oil Heat Central Gas + Electric Gas Oil Electric Gas Oil Heat Central Change in -0.84 -0.37 44.0% -0.34 -0.13 90.8% -1.06 -0.50 35.7% Source: AEO 2002

Furnace Furnace Furnace Boilers Boilers Pump Heating Central Heating Furnace Furnace Furnace Boilers Boilers Pump Heating Gas to Electricity

1951 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% Price Ratio Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 NE MW South West Percent South Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

1952 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% 2003 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 90.8% 90.8% 90.8% 90.8% 90.8% 90.8% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 0.186 0.311 0.718 0.460 42.9% 70.7% 70.7% 70.7% 70.7% 70.7% 70.7% 61.8% 61.8% 61.8% 61.8% 61.8% 61.8% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2%

1953 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% 2004 8.8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 32.4% 32.4% 32.4% 32.4% 32.4% 32.4% 0.188 0.313 0.718 0.463 42.7% 67.9% 67.9% 67.9% 67.9% 67.9% 67.9% 59.2% 59.2% 59.2% 59.2% 59.2% 59.2% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1%

1954 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% 2005 10.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 87.7% 87.7% 87.7% 87.7% 87.7% 87.7% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 0.184 0.301 0.691 0.445 42.6% 67.5% 67.5% 67.5% 67.5% 67.5% 67.5% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 27.7% 27.7% 27.7% 27.7% 27.7% 27.7%

1955 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% 2006 5.3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 89.1% 89.1% 89.1% 89.1% 89.1% 89.1% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7% 0.178 0.290 0.661 0.424 42.6% 69.1% 69.1% 69.1% 69.1% 69.1% 69.1% 60.5% 60.5% 60.5% 60.5% 60.5% 60.5% 29.3% 29.3% 29.3% 29.3% 29.3% 29.3%

1956 49.8% 4.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.7% 4.9% 79.5% 80.8% 38.4% 4.9% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 66.0% 2007 3.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 42.8% 42.8% 42.8% 42.8% 42.8% 42.8% 89.8% 89.8% 89.8% 89.8% 89.8% 89.8% 34.5% 34.5% 34.5% 34.5% 34.5% 34.5% 0.175 0.284 0.650 0.413 42.7% 69.7% 69.7% 69.7% 69.7% 69.7% 69.7% 61.1% 61.1% 61.1% 61.1% 61.1% 61.1% 30.1% 30.1% 30.1% 30.1% 30.1% 30.1%

1957 49.6% 4.7% 7.4% 6.3% 6.5% 5.2% 79.6% 79.8% 39.4% 4.9% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 67.2% 2008 -0.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 44.2% 44.2% 44.2% 44.2% 44.2% 44.2% 90.9% 90.9% 90.9% 90.9% 90.9% 90.9% 35.9% 35.9% 35.9% 35.9% 35.9% 35.9% 0.173 0.282 0.646 0.409 42.8% 70.9% 70.9% 70.9% 70.9% 70.9% 70.9% 62.3% 62.3% 62.3% 62.3% 62.3% 62.3% 31.4% 31.4% 31.4% 31.4% 31.4% 31.4%

1958 49.3% 4.5% 7.8% 6.3% 6.3% 5.5% 79.8% 78.8% 40.3% 4.8% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 68.4% 2009 -3.8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 45.3% 45.3% 45.3% 45.3% 45.3% 45.3% 91.9% 91.9% 91.9% 91.9% 91.9% 91.9% 37.1% 37.1% 37.1% 37.1% 37.1% 37.1% 0.167 0.278 0.635 0.399 42.9% 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% 63.2% 63.2% 63.2% 63.2% 63.2% 63.2% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5%

1959 49.1% 4.3% 8.3% 6.3% 6.1% 5.7% 79.9% 77.8% 41.3% 4.8% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 69.6% 2010 -6.4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46.3% 46.3% 46.3% 46.3% 46.3% 46.3% 92.7% 92.7% 92.7% 92.7% 92.7% 92.7% 38.1% 38.1% 38.1% 38.1% 38.1% 38.1% 0.166 0.279 0.640 0.399 43.1% 72.7% 72.7% 72.7% 72.7% 72.7% 72.7% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5%

1960 48.8% 4.2% 8.7% 6.4% 5.9% 6.0% 80.0% 76.8% 42.3% 4.8% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 70.8% 2011 -7.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 93.1% 93.1% 93.1% 93.1% 93.1% 93.1% 38.6% 38.6% 38.6% 38.6% 38.6% 38.6% 0.174 0.299 0.686 0.422 43.4% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 64.4% 64.4% 64.4% 64.4% 64.4% 64.4% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0%

1961 48.6% 4.0% 9.2% 6.4% 5.7% 6.3% 80.1% 75.8% 43.2% 4.7% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 72.1% 2012 -7.3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46.7% 46.7% 46.7% 46.7% 46.7% 46.7% 93.0% 93.0% 93.0% 93.0% 93.0% 93.0% 38.4% 38.4% 38.4% 38.4% 38.4% 38.4% 0.177 0.305 0.707 0.431 43.6% 72.8% 72.8% 72.8% 72.8% 72.8% 72.8% 64.3% 64.3% 64.3% 64.3% 64.3% 64.3% 33.9% 33.9% 33.9% 33.9% 33.9% 33.9%

1962 48.3% 3.8% 9.7% 6.4% 5.5% 6.5% 80.3% 74.9% 44.2% 4.7% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 73.3% 2013 -6.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46.4% 46.4% 46.4% 46.4% 46.4% 46.4% 92.8% 92.8% 92.8% 92.8% 92.8% 92.8% 38.2% 38.2% 38.2% 38.2% 38.2% 38.2% 0.177 0.305 0.714 0.436 43.8% 72.5% 72.5% 72.5% 72.5% 72.5% 72.5% 64.1% 64.1% 64.1% 64.1% 64.1% 64.1% 33.8% 33.8% 33.8% 33.8% 33.8% 33.8%

1963 48.1% 3.7% 10.1% 6.4% 5.3% 6.8% 80.4% 73.9% 45.1% 4.6% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 74.5% 2014 -5.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 92.5% 92.5% 92.5% 92.5% 92.5% 92.5% 37.8% 37.8% 37.8% 37.8% 37.8% 37.8% 0.177 0.300 0.715 0.442 43.7% 72.2% 72.2% 72.2% 72.2% 72.2% 72.2% 63.9% 63.9% 63.9% 63.9% 63.9% 63.9% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5%

1964 47.8% 3.5% 10.6% 6.4% 5.1% 7.1% 80.5% 73.0% 46.1% 4.6% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 75.7% 2015 -4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 45.5% 45.5% 45.5% 45.2% 43.1% 36.7% 92.1% 92.1% 92.1% 91.9% 90.3% 85.7% 37.3% 37.0% 37.0% 35.2% 30.1% 30.1% 0.176 0.295 0.710 0.444 43.7% 71.7% 71.7% 71.7% 71.5% 69.7% 64.3% 63.6% 63.6% 63.6% 63.4% 61.8% 57.0% 33.1% 32.9% 32.9% 31.3% 26.8% 26.8%

1965 47.5% 3.3% 11.1% 6.4% 4.9% 7.3% 80.6% 72.1% 47.1% 4.5% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 76.9% 2016 -4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 45.5% 45.5% 45.5% 45.3% 43.1% 36.7% 92.1% 92.1% 92.1% 91.9% 90.3% 85.7% 37.3% 37.0% 37.0% 35.2% 30.1% 30.1% 0.175 0.296 0.709 0.447 43.6% 71.8% 71.8% 71.8% 71.5% 69.8% 64.3% 63.7% 63.7% 63.7% 63.5% 61.9% 57.1% 33.2% 33.0% 33.0% 31.4% 26.8% 26.8%

1966 46.7% 3.2% 12.1% 6.2% 4.6% 7.8% 80.6% 70.1% 46.9% 4.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 76.9% 2017 -4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 45.6% 45.6% 45.6% 45.3% 43.2% 36.7% 92.1% 92.1% 92.1% 91.9% 90.4% 85.8% 37.3% 37.1% 37.1% 35.3% 30.2% 30.2% 0.172 0.293 0.708 0.448 43.7% 71.8% 71.8% 71.8% 71.6% 69.8% 64.4% 63.8% 63.8% 63.8% 63.6% 62.0% 57.2% 33.3% 33.1% 33.1% 31.5% 27.0% 27.0%

1967 45.8% 3.1% 13.1% 5.9% 4.4% 8.2% 80.5% 68.2% 46.7% 4.5% 19.3% 0.1% 0.0% 6.4% 77.0% 2018 -3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 45.3% 45.3% 45.3% 45.0% 42.9% 36.5% 91.9% 91.9% 91.9% 91.7% 90.2% 85.6% 37.0% 36.8% 36.8% 35.0% 29.9% 29.9% 0.168 0.287 0.701 0.447 43.7% 71.5% 71.5% 71.5% 71.3% 69.5% 64.1% 63.6% 63.6% 63.6% 63.4% 61.8% 57.0% 33.2% 32.9% 32.9% 31.3% 26.8% 26.8%

1968 44.9% 3.0% 14.1% 5.7% 4.1% 8.7% 80.5% 66.3% 46.5% 4.4% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0% 6.7% 77.0% 2019 -2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 44.8% 44.8% 44.8% 44.6% 42.4% 36.0% 91.5% 91.5% 91.5% 91.3% 89.8% 85.2% 36.6% 36.3% 36.3% 34.5% 29.4% 29.4% 0.163 0.280 0.692 0.448 43.7% 71.1% 71.1% 71.1% 70.9% 69.1% 63.7% 63.3% 63.3% 63.3% 63.1% 61.5% 56.7% 32.8% 32.6% 32.6% 30.9% 26.4% 26.4%

1969 44.0% 2.9% 15.1% 5.4% 3.8% 9.2% 80.4% 64.4% 46.3% 4.4% 19.0% 0.2% 0.1% 7.1% 77.0% 2020 -1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 44.3% 44.3% 44.3% 44.1% 41.9% 35.5% 91.1% 91.1% 91.1% 90.9% 89.4% 84.8% 36.1% 35.8% 35.8% 34.0% 28.9% 28.9% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 70.7% 70.7% 70.7% 70.5% 68.7% 63.3% 63.0% 63.0% 63.0% 62.8% 61.2% 56.4% 32.4% 32.2% 32.2% 30.6% 26.0% 26.0%

1970 43.1% 2.8% 16.1% 5.2% 3.6% 9.6% 80.4% 62.6% 46.1% 4.3% 18.9% 0.2% 0.1% 7.4% 77.0% 2021 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 43.9% 43.9% 43.9% 43.7% 41.5% 35.1% 90.7% 90.7% 90.7% 90.5% 89.0% 84.4% 35.6% 35.4% 35.4% 33.6% 28.5% 28.5% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 70.3% 70.3% 70.3% 70.1% 68.3% 62.9% 62.7% 62.7% 62.7% 62.5% 60.9% 56.1% 32.1% 31.9% 31.9% 30.2% 25.7% 25.7%

1971 42.2% 2.7% 17.2% 4.9% 3.3% 10.1% 80.3% 60.8% 46.0% 4.3% 18.7% 0.2% 0.1% 7.8% 77.0% 2022 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 43.6% 43.6% 43.6% 43.3% 41.2% 34.7% 90.4% 90.4% 90.4% 90.2% 88.7% 84.1% 35.3% 35.0% 35.0% 33.2% 28.1% 28.1% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 69.8% 68.0% 62.6% 62.5% 62.5% 62.5% 62.3% 60.7% 55.9% 31.8% 31.6% 31.6% 30.0% 25.4% 25.4%

1972 41.3% 2.6% 18.2% 4.7% 3.0% 10.5% 80.3% 59.0% 45.8% 4.2% 18.5% 0.3% 0.1% 8.1% 77.0% 2023 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 43.4% 43.4% 43.4% 43.1% 41.0% 34.5% 90.3% 90.3% 90.3% 90.1% 88.5% 83.9% 35.1% 34.8% 34.8% 33.0% 27.9% 27.9% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 69.8% 69.8% 69.8% 69.6% 67.8% 62.4% 62.4% 62.4% 62.4% 62.2% 60.6% 55.8% 31.7% 31.5% 31.5% 29.9% 25.3% 25.3%

1973 39.2% 2.8% 19.2% 4.2% 3.4% 12.2% 81.0% 55.5% 45.0% 4.3% 19.3% 0.3% 0.1% 8.1% 77.1% 2024 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 42.8% 40.7% 34.2% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 89.8% 88.3% 83.7% 34.7% 34.5% 34.5% 32.7% 27.6% 27.6% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 69.5% 69.5% 69.5% 69.3% 67.5% 62.1% 62.2% 62.2% 62.2% 62.0% 60.4% 55.6% 31.5% 31.3% 31.3% 29.6% 25.0% 25.0%

1974 32% 2% 22% 3% 3% 18% 80.0% 44.9% 44.2% 4.3% 20.1% 0.2% 0.1% 8.1% 77.1% 2025 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 42.8% 42.8% 42.8% 42.6% 40.4% 34.0% 89.8% 89.8% 89.8% 89.6% 88.1% 83.5% 34.5% 34.3% 34.3% 32.4% 27.3% 27.3% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 69.3% 69.3% 69.3% 69.1% 67.3% 61.9% 62.1% 62.1% 62.1% 61.9% 60.3% 55.5% 31.4% 31.1% 31.1% 29.5% 24.9% 24.9%

1975 32% 2% 21% 3% 4% 18% 79.4% 44.9% 43.4% 4.4% 20.9% 0.2% 0.1% 8.1% 77.1% 2026 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 42.5% 42.5% 42.5% 42.3% 40.1% 33.7% 89.6% 89.6% 89.6% 89.4% 87.8% 83.2% 34.2% 34.0% 34.0% 32.1% 27.0% 27.0% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 69.0% 69.0% 69.0% 68.8% 67.0% 61.6% 61.9% 61.9% 61.9% 61.7% 60.1% 55.3% 31.2% 30.9% 30.9% 29.3% 24.6% 24.6%

1976 32% 4% 21% 3% 6% 18% 83.3% 45.4% 42.6% 4.4% 21.7% 0.2% 0.1% 8.1% 77.1% 2027 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 42.2% 42.2% 42.2% 42.0% 39.8% 33.4% 89.3% 89.3% 89.3% 89.1% 87.6% 83.0% 33.9% 33.7% 33.7% 31.8% 26.8% 26.8% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 68.8% 68.8% 68.8% 68.5% 66.8% 61.4% 61.7% 61.7% 61.7% 61.5% 59.9% 55.1% 31.0% 30.7% 30.7% 29.1% 24.4% 24.4%

1977 31% 3% 23% 3% 5% 19% 83.8% 42.1% 41.8% 4.5% 22.4% 0.2% 0.2% 8.1% 77.2% 2028 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 41.9% 41.9% 41.9% 41.7% 39.6% 33.1% 89.1% 89.1% 89.1% 88.9% 87.4% 82.7% 33.6% 33.4% 33.4% 31.5% 26.5% 26.5% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 68.5% 68.5% 68.5% 68.3% 66.5% 61.1% 61.6% 61.6% 61.6% 61.4% 59.8% 54.9% 30.8% 30.5% 30.5% 28.9% 24.2% 24.2%

1978 30% 3% 25% 2% 4% 20% 84.5% 39.9% 41.4% 4.0% 22.0% 0.1% 0.1% 10.5% 78.2% 2029 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 41.7% 41.7% 41.7% 41.4% 39.3% 32.8% 88.8% 88.8% 88.8% 88.6% 87.1% 82.5% 33.3% 33.1% 33.1% 31.2% 26.1% 26.1% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 68.2% 68.2% 68.2% 68.0% 66.2% 60.8% 61.4% 61.4% 61.4% 61.2% 59.6% 54.7% 30.5% 30.3% 30.3% 28.6% 24.0% 24.0%

1979 31% 3% 26% 2% 3% 20% 85.6% 40.3% 41.0% 3.6% 21.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.9% 79.3% 2030 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 41.4% 41.4% 41.4% 41.1% 39.0% 32.5% 88.6% 88.6% 88.6% 88.4% 86.9% 82.3% 33.0% 32.8% 32.8% 30.9% 25.8% 25.8% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 67.7% 66.0% 60.6% 61.2% 61.2% 61.2% 61.0% 59.4% 54.5% 30.3% 30.1% 30.1% 28.4% 23.8% 23.8%

1980 33% 1% 27% 2% 1% 21% 85.6% 41.1% 40.7% 3.1% 21.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4% 80.4% 2031 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 41.1% 41.1% 41.1% 40.8% 38.7% 32.2% 88.3% 88.3% 88.3% 88.1% 86.6% 82.0% 32.7% 32.4% 32.4% 30.6% 25.5% 25.5% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 67.7% 67.7% 67.7% 67.5% 65.7% 60.3% 61.0% 61.0% 61.0% 60.8% 59.2% 54.3% 30.1% 29.9% 29.9% 28.2% 23.5% 23.5%

1981 34% 1% 25% 2% 1% 21% 84.5% 42.1% 40.3% 2.6% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 81.5% 2032 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 40.8% 40.8% 40.8% 40.5% 38.4% 31.9% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 87.9% 86.4% 81.7% 32.4% 32.1% 32.1% 30.3% 25.2% 25.2% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 67.4% 67.4% 67.4% 67.2% 65.4% 60.0% 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% 60.6% 59.0% 54.1% 29.9% 29.7% 29.7% 28.0% 23.3% 23.3%

1982 31% 1% 25% 2% 1% 23% 83.6% 39.9% 39.9% 2.2% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 82.6% 2033 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 40.2% 38.1% 31.6% 87.8% 87.8% 87.8% 87.6% 86.1% 81.5% 32.1% 31.8% 31.8% 30.0% 24.9% 24.9% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 67.1% 67.1% 67.1% 66.9% 65.1% 59.7% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.4% 58.8% 53.9% 29.7% 29.4% 29.4% 27.7% 23.0% 23.0%

1983 34% 1% 23% 2% 1% 23% 84.7% 42.4% 40.7% 2.5% 21.5% 0.1% 0.0% 18.3% 83.1% 2034 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 40.2% 40.2% 40.2% 39.9% 37.8% 31.3% 87.6% 87.6% 87.6% 87.4% 85.8% 81.2% 31.8% 31.5% 31.5% 29.7% 24.6% 24.6% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 66.9% 66.9% 66.9% 66.6% 64.9% 59.5% 60.4% 60.4% 60.4% 60.2% 58.6% 53.7% 29.4% 29.2% 29.2% 27.5% 22.8% 22.8%

1984 34% 1% 23% 2% 1% 25% 85.2% 41.6% 41.4% 2.8% 22.8% 0.1% 0.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2035 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 39.8% 39.8% 39.8% 39.6% 37.4% 31.0% 87.3% 87.3% 87.3% 87.1% 85.6% 81.0% 31.4% 31.2% 31.2% 29.4% 24.3% 24.3% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.4% 64.6% 59.2% 60.2% 60.2% 60.2% 60.0% 58.4% 53.5% 29.2% 29.0% 29.0% 27.3% 22.6% 22.6%

1985 35% 1% 21% 2% 1% 25% 85.6% 43.0% 42.2% 3.2% 24.0% 0.2% 0.0% 14.5% 84.1% 2036 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5% 39.3% 37.1% 30.7% 87.0% 87.0% 87.0% 86.9% 85.3% 80.7% 31.1% 30.9% 30.9% 29.0% 24.0% 24.0% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 66.3% 66.3% 66.3% 66.1% 64.3% 58.9% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 59.8% 58.2% 53.3% 29.0% 28.7% 28.7% 27.0% 22.3% 22.3%

1986 38% 1% 19% 2% 2% 23% 86.5% 47.4% 43.0% 3.5% 25.2% 0.3% 0.0% 12.7% 84.6% 2037 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 39.2% 39.2% 39.2% 39.0% 36.8% 30.4% 86.8% 86.8% 86.8% 86.6% 85.1% 80.5% 30.8% 30.6% 30.6% 28.7% 23.6% 23.6% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 66.0% 66.0% 66.0% 65.8% 64.0% 58.6% 59.8% 59.8% 59.8% 59.6% 58.0% 53.1% 28.7% 28.5% 28.5% 26.8% 22.1% 22.1%

1987 44% 1% 17% 2% 2% 21% 87.6% 53.7% 43.7% 3.8% 26.4% 0.3% 0.0% 10.8% 85.0% 2038 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.9% 54.8% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 38.9% 38.9% 38.9% 38.6% 36.5% 30.1% 86.5% 86.5% 86.5% 86.3% 84.8% 80.2% 30.5% 30.2% 30.2% 28.4% 23.3% 23.3% 0.159 0.273 0.680 0.446 43.6% 65.7% 65.7% 65.7% 65.5% 63.7% 58.3% 59.6% 59.6% 59.6% 59.4% 57.7% 52.8% 28.5% 28.3% 28.3% 26.6% 21.8% 21.8%

1988 47% 1% 15% 2% 3% 20% 88.4% 57.0% 40.8% 2.8% 28.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9% 87.9%

1989 49% 1% 14% 2% 3% 20% 89.0% 59.3% 37.8% 1.8% 30.0% 0.1% 0.0% 21.0% 90.7%

1990 51% 1% 14% 1% 3% 19% 89.6% 61.0% 34.9% 0.9% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0% 26.1% 93.6%

1991 48% 1% 12% 4% 3% 18% 85.9% 61.8% 48.5% 0.0% 34.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 96.1%

1992 58% 1% 10% 3% 2% 18% 92.3% 66.9% 24.2% 0.0% 27.7% 0.0% 0.0% 39.7% 91.6%

1993 57% 1% 14% 4% 2% 14% 91.7% 66.7% 38.5% 0.7% 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 93.1%

1994 58% 1% 10% 3% 1% 18% 91.8% 67.7% 41.1% 3.5% 33.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 91.2%

1995 58% 1% 11% 3% 2% 17% 92.8% 66.8% 51.0% 0.0% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 90.3%

1996 59% 1% 12% 3% 1% 17% 92.6% 67.8% 39.4% 0.0% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 90.7%

1997 60% 2% 13% 3% 1% 17% 95.0% 66.8% 32.5% 1.2% 48.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 94.5%

1998 60% 1% 13% 2% 1% 16% 92.9% 67.4% 26.5% 3.8% 36.3% 0.0% 0.0% 24.7% 91.3% Gas/Electric

1999 57% 0.5% 13% 4.1% 1.9% 17% 93.6% 65.8% 39.9% 0.2% 36.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 94.4% 42.3%

2000 58% 0.5% 13% 4.1% 1.9% 16% 93.6% 66.5% 33.9% 1.0% 30.3% 0.0% 0.0% 24.2% 89.4% 38.3%

2001 58% 0.5% 13% 4.1% 1.7% 16% 93.4% 66.9% 25.7% 7.9% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 34.4% 91.8% 30.6%

2002 57% 0.5% 13% 4.1% 1.9% 17% 93.5% 65.7% 30.5% 0.0% 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 82.1% 37.2%

2003 60% 0.4% 12% 4.2% 1.5% 16% 93.5% 68.2% 22.8% 15.1% 53.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91.4% 29.9%

2004 59.2% 0.47% 12.9% 4.1% 1.8% 15.1% 93.6% 67.9% 28.1% 4.86% 34.4% 0.00% 0.00% 24.2% 91.6%

2005 59.0% 0.5% 13.1% 4.1% 1.8% 15.3% 93.8% 67.5% 27.7% 4.9% 34.7% 0.0% 0.0% 24.5% 91.8%

2006 60.5% 0.5% 12.5% 4.1% 1.8% 14.6% 93.9% 69.1% 29.3% 4.9% 33.9% 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 92.0%

2007 61.1% 0.5% 12.2% 4.1% 1.8% 14.3% 94.0% 69.7% 30.1% 4.9% 33.5% 0.0% 0.0% 23.6% 92.2%

2008 62.3% 0.5% 11.8% 4.1% 1.8% 13.7% 94.2% 70.9% 31.4% 4.9% 32.9% 0.0% 0.0% 23.2% 92.4%

2009 63.2% 0.5% 11.4% 4.1% 1.8% 13.3% 94.3% 71.9% 32.5% 4.9% 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 92.6%

2010 64.0% 0.5% 11.1% 4.1% 1.8% 12.9% 94.4% 72.7% 33.5% 4.9% 31.9% 0.0% 0.0% 22.5% 92.8%

2011 64.4% 0.5% 11.0% 4.1% 1.8% 12.8% 94.5% 73.0% 34.0% 4.9% 31.7% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 93.0%

2012 64.3% 0.5% 11.1% 4.1% 1.8% 12.9% 94.7% 72.8% 33.95% 4.9% 31.9% 0.0% 0.0% 22.5% 93.2%

2013 64.1% 0.5% 11.2% 4.1% 1.8% 13.1% 94.8% 72.5% 33.8% 4.9% 32.1% 0.0% 0.0% 22.6% 93.4%

2014 63.9% 0.5% 11.4% 4.1% 1.8% 13.3% 94.9% 72.2% 33.5% 4.9% 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 93.6%

2015 63.6% 0.5% 11.6% 4.1% 1.8% 13.5% 95.0% 71.7% 33.1% 4.9% 32.7% 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 93.8%

2016 63.7% 0.5% 11.6% 4.1% 1.8% 13.5% 95.1% 71.8% 33.2% 4.9% 32.8% 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 94.0%

2017 63.8% 0.5% 11.6% 4.1% 1.8% 13.5% 95.2% 71.8% 33.3% 4.9% 32.8% 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 94.2%

2018 63.6% 0.5% 11.7% 4.1% 1.8% 13.7% 95.3% 71.5% 33.2% 4.9% 33.1% 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 94.4%

2019 63.3% 0.5% 11.9% 4.1% 1.8% 13.9% 95.4% 71.1% 32.8% 4.9% 33.4% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 94.6%

2020 63.0% 0.5% 12.1% 4.1% 1.8% 14.1% 95.5% 70.7% 32.4% 4.9% 33.7% 0.0% 0.0% 23.8% 94.8%

2021 62.7% 0.5% 12.2% 4.1% 1.8% 14.3% 95.6% 70.3% 32.1% 4.9% 34.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 95.0%

2022 62.5% 0.5% 12.4% 4.1% 1.8% 14.5% 95.7% 70.0% 31.8% 4.9% 34.3% 0.0% 0.0% 24.2% 95.2%

2023 62.4% 0.5% 12.5% 4.1% 1.8% 14.6% 95.8% 69.8% 31.7% 4.9% 34.5% 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 95.4%

2024 62.2% 0.5% 12.6% 4.1% 1.8% 14.7% 95.9% 69.5% 31.5% 4.9% 34.7% 0.0% 0.0% 24.5% 95.6%

2025 62.1% 0.5% 12.7% 4.1% 1.8% 14.8% 96.0% 69.3% 31.4% 4.9% 34.9% 0.0% 0.0% 24.6% 95.8%

2026 61.9% 0.5% 12.8% 4.1% 1.8% 15.0% 96.1% 69.0% 31.2% 4.9% 35.2% 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 96.0%

2027 61.7% 0.5% 12.9% 4.1% 1.8% 15.1% 96.2% 68.8% 31.0% 4.9% 35.4% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 96.2%

2028 61.6% 0.5% 13.1% 4.1% 1.8% 15.2% 96.3% 68.5% 30.8% 4.9% 35.6% 0.0% 0.0% 25.1% 96.4%

2029 61.4% 0.5% 13.2% 4.1% 1.8% 15.4% 96.3% 68.2% 30.5% 4.9% 35.9% 0.0% 0.0% 25.3% 96.6%

2030 61.2% 0.5% 13.3% 4.1% 1.8% 15.5% 96.4% 68.0% 30.3% 4.9% 36.1% 0.0% 0.0% 25.5% 96.8%

2031 61.0% 0.5% 13.4% 4.1% 1.8% 15.7% 96.5% 67.7% 30.1% 4.9% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% 25.6% 97.0%

2032 60.8% 0.5% 13.6% 4.1% 1.8% 15.8% 96.6% 67.4% 29.9% 4.9% 36.6% 0.0% 0.0% 25.8% 97.2%

2033 60.6% 0.5% 13.7% 4.1% 1.8% 16.0% 96.6% 67.1% 29.7% 4.9% 36.9% 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% 97.4%

2034 60.4% 0.5% 13.8% 4.1% 1.8% 16.1% 96.7% 66.9% 29.4% 4.9% 37.1% 0.0% 0.0% 26.2% 97.6%

2035 60.2% 0.5% 13.9% 4.1% 1.8% 16.3% 96.8% 66.6% 29.2% 4.9% 37.4% 0.0% 0.0% 26.3% 97.8%

2036 60.0% 0.5% 14.1% 4.1% 1.8% 16.4% 96.9% 66.3% 29.0% 4.9% 37.6% 0.0% 0.0% 26.5% 98.0%

2037 59.8% 0.5% 14.2% 4.1% 1.8% 16.6% 96.9% 66.0% 28.7% 4.9% 37.9% 0.0% 0.0% 26.7% 98.2%

2038 59.6% 0.5% 14.3% 4.1% 1.8% 16.7% 97.0% 65.7% 28.5% 4.9% 38.1% 0.0% 0.0% 26.9% 98.4%

Southern Region Only - SF+MF All Regions Excluding South - SF+MF Mobile Homes

Single and Multi Family Homes Gas Furnace Share of Gas Furnace + Electric Central Heating Gas Furnace Share of Gas Furnace + Electric Central Heating MODEL

Change in Gas to Electric Heating Price Ratio Relative to 1999 National (weighted average) Gas Furnace Share of Gas Furnace + 

Electric Central Heating 

GAS FURNACE SHARE OF TOTAL NEW HOUSING

Mobile Homes Housing Starts - Single and Multi-Family Only Single and Multi Family Homes Mobile Homes

New Housing Market Shares

Base Case Market Shares

46.1% 59%

Base Case Market Shares

Single and Multi-Family Homes Mobile Homes
American Housing Survey Data

Southern Region Only

Weights

Vintage 

Range Vintage % With 

Gas Gas Elec Gas / Elec Rel.l to 1965

1930-1939 1935 69.6% 6.7% 109

1940-1949 1945 71.4% 5.09% 197

1950-1959 1955 70.7% 3.58% 390

1960-1969 1965 61.5% 2.69% 521 102.4 169.1 0.605 1.000

1970-1974 1972 47.2% 2.55% 345 99.9 160.9 0.621 1.025

1975-1978 1976 37.0% 2.36% 245 120.5 176.3 0.684 1.129

1979 1979 29.1% 3.01% 93 137.6 156.6 0.879 1.451

1980 1980 26.6% 4.12% 42 137.8 157.1 0.877 1.449

1981 1981 31.8% 5.10% 39 145.9 167.7 0.870 1.437

1982 1982 28.0% 4.75% 35 167.6 175.1 0.957 1.581

1983 1983 27.0% 4.03% 45 184.2 177.1 1.040 1.718

1984 1984 28.7% 3.88% 55 179.0 179.0 1.000 1.652

1985 1985 25.8% 3.50% 55 168.7 176.9 0.953 1.575

1986 1986 36.6% 4.50% 66 159.6 174.5 0.915 1.511

1987 1987 29.2% 4.28% 47 151.2 166.2 0.910 1.503

1988 1988 26.5% 4.26% 39 147.6 162.4 0.909 1.501

1989 1989 33.4% 4.72% 50 144.7 157.8 0.917 1.514

1990 1990 28.2% 4.94% 33 140.2 152.7 0.918 1.517

1991 1991 31.1% 4.86% 41 134.6 150.6 0.894 1.476

1992 1992 33.3% 5.22% 41 131.3 149.1 0.881 1.455

1993 1993 33.3% 4.84% 47 137.9 147.3 0.936 1.546

1994 1994 39.1% 5.63% 48 135.3 143.5 0.943 1.557

1995 1995 38.1% 6.78% 32 124.6 140.3 0.888 1.467

Fuel Prices

Market Share Model to

Determine Elasticities

AHS DATA

1995 1995 38.1% 6.78% 32 124.6 140.3 0.888 1.467

American Housing Survey Data

All Regions Excluding South

Weights

Vintage % With 

Gas % With Gas Gas Elec Gas / Elec Rel.l to 1965

1940-1939 1935 93.6% 4.5% 432

1940-1949 1945 93.7% 3.82% 600

1950-1959 1955 94.2% 2.67% 1249

1960-1969 1965 91.4% 2.65% 1188 102.4 169.1 0.605 1.000

1970-1974 1972 85.1% 3.25% 687 99.9 160.9 0.621 1.025

1975-1978 1976 74.0% 3.19% 538 120.5 176.3 0.684 1.129

1979 1979 74.2% 4.63% 257 131.8 159.1 0.828 1.368

1980 1980 74.4% 8.23% 82 142.9 165.9 0.861 1.423

1981 1981 73.1% 8.64% 72 145.7 170.7 0.854 1.410

1982 1982 76.2% 11.96% 41 164.3 177.1 0.927 1.532

1983 1983 74.3% 8.71% 73 186.0 175.0 1.063 1.756

1984 1984 67.1% 7.85% 73 180.5 179.1 1.008 1.665

1985 1985 71.1% 6.59% 116 173.3 180.5 0.960 1.586

1986 1986 75.9% 7.84% 94 161.9 180.1 0.899 1.485

AHS DATA Fuel Prices
1987 1987 74.6% 6.93% 116 148.9 174.5 0.853 1.410

1988 1988 78.4% 7.64% 105 141.6 170.0 0.833 1.376

1989 1989 80.3% 7.31% 121 138.9 168.0 0.827 1.366

1990 1990 80.7% 7.79% 107 131.7 163.6 0.805 1.329

1991 1991 76.4% 7.74% 97 129.5 164.2 0.789 1.303

1992 1992 79.5% 7.71% 106 127.2 162.6 0.782 1.292

1993 1993 78.6% 7.39% 113 129.6 161.2 0.804 1.329

1994 1994 83.0% 8.23% 102 130.1 157.5 0.826 1.364

1995 1995 81.2% 10.12% 64 122.0 158.0 0.772 1.275

American Housing Survey Data

Mobile Homes Only

Weights

Vintage % With 

Gas % With Gas Gas Elec Gas / Elec Rel.l to 1965

1930-1939 1935 86.6% 20.8% 17

1940-1949 1945 81.7% 18.2% 20

1950-1959 1955 75.5% 13.9% 29

1960-1969 1965 59.7% 8.5% 49 102.4 169.1 0.605 1.000

1970-1974 1972 49.8% 7.2% 48 99.9 160.9 0.621 1.025

1975-1978 1976 36.7% 7.9% 22 120.5 176.3 0.684 1.129

1979 1979 35.7% 8.6% 17 143.4 170.7 0.840 1.388

1980 1980 35.6% 13.9% 7 150.6 173.8 0.867 1.432

1981 1981 23.0% 10.6% 5 155.7 181.2 0.859 1.419

1982 1982 34.5% 15.2% 5 175.8 187.5 0.937 1.548

1983 1983 27.7% 11.2% 6 198.6 187.6 1.059 1.749

1984 1984 30.5% 11.0% 8 191.8 191.4 1.002 1.655

1985 1985 27.4% 11.8% 5 184.0 191.2 0.962 1.590

AHS DATA Fuel Prices

1985 1985 27.4% 11.8% 5 184.0 191.2 0.962 1.590

1986 1986 56.0% 25.2% 5 171.8 190.3 0.903 1.492

1987 1987 44.7% 19.0% 6 158.1 182.9 0.865 1.428

1988 1988 75.0% 40.5% 3 150.9 178.0 0.848 1.400

1989 1989 33.6% 19.6% 3 147.9 174.7 0.847 1.398

1990 1990 36.7% 18.1% 4 140.6 169.7 0.829 1.369

1991 1991 36.8% 21.8% 3 136.6 168.9 0.809 1.336

1992 1992 56.7% 41.4% 2 135.0 167.2 0.808 1.334

1993 1993 70.9% 64.7% 1 139.2 165.6 0.841 1.389

1994 1994 24.6% 27.0% 1 138.3 161.5 0.856 1.415

1995 1995 83.4% 46.4% 3 127.5 160.6 0.794 1.312
Elasticity

Fuel Equipment Constant X

2

-0.84 -0.37 61.5% 5.38

Change Rel. 

1965

Gas 

Furnaces

Heat 

Pumps Ratio Change Rel. 1965 Linear X

2

0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 61.5% 0.00

0.025 0.936 0.890 1.051 0.051 59.0% 21.33

0.129 0.871 0.821 1.061 0.061 53.4% 48.73

0.451 0.853 0.799 1.068 0.068 36.7% 6.40

0.449 0.845 0.787 1.075 0.075 36.7% 5.94

0.437 0.855 0.760 1.125 0.125 36.1% 0.73

0.581 0.870 0.744 1.169 0.169 27.7% 0.00

0.718 0.867 0.735 1.180 0.180 20.4% 2.67

0.652 0.867 0.726 1.194 0.194 23.5% 1.75

0.575 0.863 0.713 1.209 0.209 27.1% 0.14

0.511 0.858 0.701 1.224 0.224 30.1% 2.08

0.503 0.833 0.682 1.220 0.220 30.6% 0.10

0.501 0.826 0.678 1.218 0.218 30.7% 1.00

0.514 0.819 0.672 1.218 0.218 30.1% 0.49

0.517 0.845 0.677 1.248 0.248 29.3% 0.05

0.476 0.822 0.651 1.262 0.262 31.0% 0.00

0.455 0.816 0.631 1.293 0.293 31.5% 0.13

0.546 0.803 0.615 1.304 0.304 26.5% 2.00

0.557 0.783 0.599 1.305 0.305 25.9% 5.48

0.467 0.777 0.598 1.299 0.299 30.7% 1.19

Equip Prices Gas Furn. MS Model

0.467 0.777 0.598 1.299 0.299 30.7% 1.19

Elasticity

Fuel Equipment Constant X

2

-0.34 -0.13 91.4% 0.35

Change Rel. 

1965

Gas 

Furnaces

Heat 

Pumps Ratio Change Rel. 1965 Linear X

2

0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 91.4% 0.00

0.025 0.936 0.896 1.045 0.045 90.1% 2.34

0.129 0.871 0.405 2.149 1.149 74.0% 0.00

0.368 0.853 0.806 1.059 0.059 79.3% 1.20

0.423 0.845 0.794 1.065 0.065 77.5% 0.14

0.410 0.855 0.771 1.108 0.108 77.4% 0.25

0.532 0.870 0.759 1.145 0.145 73.2% 0.06

0.756 0.867 0.751 1.154 0.154 66.1% 0.89

0.665 0.867 0.743 1.166 0.166 68.8% 0.04

0.586 0.863 0.732 1.179 0.179 71.1% 0.00

0.485 0.858 0.720 1.191 0.191 74.1% 0.05

Equip Prices Gas Furn. MS Model
0.410 0.833 0.701 1.188 0.188 76.5% 0.08

0.376 0.826 0.696 1.186 0.186 77.6% 0.01

0.366 0.819 0.690 1.186 0.186 77.9% 0.11

0.329 0.845 0.698 1.211 0.211 78.7% 0.06

0.303 0.822 0.672 1.222 0.222 79.4% 0.15

0.292 0.816 0.654 1.248 0.248 79.4% 0.00

0.329 0.803 0.638 1.257 0.257 78.2% 0.00

0.364 0.783 0.622 1.258 0.258 77.1% 0.51

0.275 0.777 0.620 1.253 0.253 79.9% 0.01

Elasticity

Fuel Equipment Constant X

2

-1.06 -0.50 59.7% 1.03

Change Rel. 

1965

Gas 

Furnaces

Heat 

Pumps Ratio Change Rel. 1965 Linear X

2

0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 59.7% 0.00

0.025 0.936 0.899 1.041 0.041 56.9% 0.99

0.129 0.871 0.444 1.962 0.962 23.0% 3.02

0.388 0.853 0.810 1.054 0.054 33.6% 0.06

0.432 0.845 0.798 1.059 0.059 30.6% 0.13

0.419 0.855 0.778 1.098 0.098 30.3% 0.47

0.548 0.870 0.768 1.132 0.132 21.1% 0.79

0.749 0.867 0.761 1.140 0.140 8.1% 3.06

0.655 0.867 0.754 1.150 0.150 13.8% 2.29

0.590 0.863 0.743 1.161 0.161 17.6% 0.70

Equip Prices Gas Furn. MS Model

0.590 0.863 0.743 1.161 0.161 17.6% 0.70

0.492 0.858 0.731 1.172 0.172 23.4% 1.68

0.428 0.833 0.712 1.170 0.170 27.6% 0.82

0.400 0.826 0.707 1.168 0.168 29.4% 1.27

0.398 0.819 0.701 1.168 0.168 29.5% 0.04

0.369 0.845 0.710 1.190 0.190 30.7% 0.11

0.336 0.822 0.685 1.200 0.200 32.5% 0.04

0.334 0.816 0.667 1.222 0.222 32.0% 0.36

0.389 0.803 0.652 1.231 0.231 28.3% 0.43

0.415 0.783 0.635 1.232 0.232 26.6% 0.01

0.312 0.777 0.633 1.227 0.227 33.2% 1.17
Best Fit Variables

Sxx Syy Sxy  Sfx Sfy Sx Sy

229.7157 39.77389 89.20491 1179.173 237.2372 107.2126 462.3578 196.5133

Ef Ee

Bf Be sBf sBe Sig. Bf Sig. Be

-0.83776 -0.36628 0.441374 0.183658 -1.89807 -1.99438

Sxx Syy Sxy  Sfx Sfy Sx Sy

328.9145 771.7004 201.9776 213028.5 665.376 783.7927 803.0496 950.5999

Bf Be sBf sBe Sig. Bf Sig. Be

-0.341 -0.127 0.039294 0.060187 -8.66734 -2.11036
Sxx Syy Sxy  Sfx Sfy Sx Sy

20.15647 22.02606 8.05133 379.1437 18.0941 14.67075 43.47649 34.13758

Bf Be sBf sBe Sig. Bf Sig. Be

-1.061 -0.496 0.230571 0.241027 -4.6024 -2.05748
Regional Breakdown Single and Multi Family Home Construction (Millio

Non-SouthSouth

NonSouth South Cold 

States

Cold 40% 0% 1974 0.97 0.76 0.39

Warm 60% 100% 1975 0.79 0.53 0.31

1976 0.86 0.51 0.34

1977 1.02 0.64 0.41

1978 1.12 0.75 0.45

Northeast 196956 1979 1.11 0.76 0.44

New England 57858 1980 0.80 0.70 0.32

Connecticut 11837 1981 0.64 0.62 0.25

Maine 8771 1982 0.47 0.54 0.19

Massachusetts 22477 1983 0.64 0.74 0.26

New Hampshire 8653 1984 0.78 0.87 0.31

Rhode Island 2532 1985 0.89 0.81 0.35

Vermont 3588 1986 0.99 0.76 0.39

Percent Cold 96% 1987 1.01 0.66 0.40

Middle Atlantic 139098 1988 0.93 0.60 0.37

New Jersey 35936 1989 0.87 0.55 0.35

New York 53497 1990 0.80 0.51 0.32

Pennsylvania 49665 1991 0.65 0.44 0.26

Percent Cold 38% 1992 0.69 0.46 0.28

Midwest 370466

Total Construction 2004 - 

Single + Multi Family

Regional Housing and Fuel Price

Midwest 370466 1993 0.68 0.51 0.27

East North Central 245394 1994 0.76 0.58 0.30

Illinois 59753 1995 0.73 0.58 0.29

Indiana 39233 1996 0.89 0.52 0.36

Michigan 54721 1997 0.88 0.51 0.35

Ohio 51695 1998 0.94 0.53 0.37

Wisconsin 39992 1999 1.02 0.58 0.41

Percent Cold 63% 2000 0.99 0.58 0.40

West North Central 125072 2001 0.98 0.59 0.39

Iowa 16345

Kansas 13301

Minnesota 41843

Missouri 32791

Nebraska 10920

North Dakota 4033

South Dakota 5839

Percent Cold 63%

South 960779

South Atlantic 606668
Delaware 7858

District of Columbia 1936

Florida 255893

Georgia 108356

Maryland 27382

North Carolina 93077

South Carolina 43230

Virginia 63220

West Virginia 5716

Percent Cold 0%

East South Central 109357

Alabama 27411

Kentucky 22623

Mississippi 14532

Tennessee 44791

Percent Cold 0%

West South Central 244754

Arkansas 15855

Louisiana 22989

Oklahoma 17068

Texas 188842

Percent Cold 0%

West 541876

Mountain 244921

Arizona 90644

Colorado 46499

Idaho 18108

Montana 4975

Nevada 44556

New Mexico 12555

Utah 24267

Wyoming 3317

Percent Cold 40%

Pacific 296955

Alaska 3133

California 207390

Hawaii 9034

Oregon 27309

Washington 50089

Percent Cold 1%
Forecast of Single and Multi-Family Home Construction(Millions) Source: AEO 2005 

y Home Construction (Millions)

Census 

Division

New 

England

Middle 

Atlantic

East North 

Central

West North 

Central

South 

Atlantic

Census Region NorthEast NorthEast MidWest MidWest South

Warm 

States

Percent Cold 

States 96% 38% 63% 63% 0%

1.34 2002 0.047 0.115 0.245 0.112 0.503

1.00 2003 0.041 0.130 0.215 0.132 0.552

1.03 2004 0.046 0.145 0.217 0.142 0.555

1.25 2005 0.042 0.132 0.193 0.128 0.506

1.42 2006 0.041 0.126 0.181 0.118 0.475

1.43 2007 0.043 0.129 0.183 0.115 0.474

1.18 2008 0.043 0.128 0.178 0.109 0.461

1.01 2009 0.043 0.129 0.176 0.104 0.443

0.82 2010 0.044 0.131 0.175 0.103 0.442

1.13 2011 0.046 0.135 0.176 0.103 0.447

1.34 2012 0.046 0.135 0.173 0.101 0.438

1.34 2013 0.046 0.136 0.171 0.099 0.434

1.36 2014 0.047 0.140 0.172 0.099 0.436

1.27 2015 0.047 0.138 0.167 0.096 0.426

1.16 2016 0.046 0.136 0.162 0.093 0.417

1.07 2017 0.047 0.136 0.158 0.091 0.413

0.99 2018 0.047 0.138 0.156 0.090 0.411

0.83 2019 0.048 0.141 0.155 0.090 0.414

0.88 2020 0.049 0.144 0.154 0.089 0.416

0.92 2021 0.050 0.146 0.154 0.088 0.412

1.04 2022 0.051 0.149 0.154 0.088 0.408

1.02 2023 0.051 0.152 0.155 0.087 0.405

1.05 2024 0.052 0.154 0.156 0.087 0.399

1.04 2025 0.053 0.157 0.156 0.086 0.394

1.09 2026

1.20 2027

1.18 2028

1.18 2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

East South 

Central

West South 

Central Mountain Pacific

South South West West Total Cold States Warm States

0% 0% 40% 1%

0.079 0.198 0.184 0.228 1.710 0.390 1.320

0.083 0.212 0.193 0.290 1.848 0.387 1.461

0.082 0.219 0.190 0.303 1.899 0.405 1.494

0.072 0.199 0.174 0.280 1.727 0.366 1.361

0.065 0.189 0.167 0.266 1.628 0.345 1.283

0.064 0.193 0.172 0.269 1.642 0.349 1.293

0.061 0.193 0.173 0.266 1.611 0.342 1.269

0.058 0.190 0.170 0.261 1.575 0.338 1.237

0.057 0.193 0.172 0.264 1.582 0.339 1.242

0.057 0.197 0.176 0.270 1.605 0.344 1.261

0.054 0.193 0.173 0.268 1.581 0.339 1.242

0.053 0.193 0.173 0.270 1.576 0.339 1.238

0.052 0.195 0.176 0.276 1.594 0.342 1.251

0.049 0.190 0.172 0.273 1.558 0.334 1.224

0.047 0.185 0.169 0.271 1.526 0.327 1.199

0.045 0.183 0.167 0.272 1.510 0.323 1.187

0.043 0.182 0.167 0.274 1.508 0.322 1.186

0.042 0.184 0.168 0.280 1.522 0.324 1.198

0.041 0.186 0.170 0.286 1.536 0.326 1.210

0.040 0.186 0.170 0.288 1.532 0.326 1.206

0.039 0.186 0.169 0.291 1.533 0.328 1.205

0.038 0.185 0.169 0.294 1.537 0.331 1.206

0.036 0.184 0.167 0.295 1.531 0.331 1.200

0.035 0.183 0.166 0.297 1.527 0.332 1.195

1.535 0.334 1.201

1.543 0.336 1.207

1.550 0.337 1.213

1.558 0.339 1.219

1.566 0.341 1.225

1.574 0.343 1.231

1.582 0.344 1.237

1.590 0.346 1.244

1.598 0.348 1.250

1.606 0.349 1.256

1.614 0.351 1.262

1.622 0.353 1.269

1.630 0.355 1.275

Regional Fuel Prices

Source AEO 2005 - Forecast by Census Division

Residential $/MMBtu Scaling Factor Residential $/MMBtu

United 

States North South United States North South United States North

2001 10.18 9.87 10.81 1.00 0.97 1.06 26.21 28.08

2002 8.29 7.98 8.90 1.00 0.96 1.07 24.56 25.22

2003 9.66 9.27 10.42 1.00 0.96 1.08 24.59 25.39

2004 10.42 10.26 10.73 1.00 0.98 1.03 24.87 25.66

2005 10.44 10.35 10.61 1.00 0.99 1.02 24.73 25.46

2006 9.62 9.56 9.74 1.00 0.99 1.01 23.93 24.58

2007 9.10 9.06 9.18 1.00 1.00 1.01 22.99 23.62

2008 8.66 8.61 8.75 1.00 0.99 1.01 22.51 23.06

2009 8.43 8.35 8.60 1.00 0.99 1.02 22.57 23.18

2010 8.22 8.12 8.41 1.00 0.99 1.02 22.57 23.21

2011 8.14 8.03 8.35 1.00 0.99 1.03 22.57 23.31

2012 8.21 8.09 8.43 1.00 0.99 1.03 22.73 23.61

2013 8.32 8.21 8.54 1.00 0.99 1.03 22.94 23.90

2014 8.48 8.36 8.72 1.00 0.99 1.03 23.18 24.21

2015 8.61 8.49 8.85 1.00 0.99 1.03 23.24 24.29

2016 8.61 8.49 8.84 1.00 0.99 1.03 23.22 24.24

2017 8.63 8.48 8.91 1.00 0.98 1.03 23.25 24.25

2018 8.75 8.58 9.06 1.00 0.98 1.04 23.42 24.44

2019 8.92 8.76 9.24 1.00 0.98 1.04 23.63 24.70

Natural Gas / LPG

2020 9.06 8.90 9.38 1.00 0.98 1.03 23.73 24.84

2021 9.19 9.04 9.48 1.00 0.98 1.03 23.82 24.95

2022 9.25 9.12 9.52 1.00 0.99 1.03 23.80 24.94

2023 9.29 9.16 9.53 1.00 0.99 1.03 23.74 24.87

2024 9.36 9.24 9.58 1.00 0.99 1.02 23.79 24.96

2025 9.45 9.34 9.66 1.00 0.99 1.02 23.86 25.05

2026 1.00 0.99 1.02

2027 1.00 0.99 1.02

2028 1.00 0.99 1.02

2029 1.00 0.99 1.02

2030 1.00 0.99 1.02

2031 1.00 0.99 1.02

2032 1.00 0.99 1.02

2033 1.00 0.99 1.02

2034 1.00 0.99 1.02

2035 1.00 0.99 1.02

2036 1.00 0.99 1.02

2037 1.00 0.99 1.02

2038 1.00 0.99 1.02
2039 1.00 0.99 1.02

2040 1.00 0.99 1.02

2041 1.00 0.99 1.02

2042 1.00 0.99 1.02

2043 1.00 0.99 1.02

2044 1.00 0.99 1.02

2045 1.00 0.99 1.02

2046 1.00 0.99 1.02

2047 1.00 0.99 1.02

2048 1.00 0.99 1.02

2049 1.00 0.99 1.02

2050 1.00 0.99 1.02

2051 1.00 0.99 1.02

2052 1.00 0.99 1.02

2053 1.00 0.99 1.02

2054 1.00 0.99 1.02

2055 1.00 0.99 1.02

2056 1.00 0.99 1.02

2057 1.00 0.99 1.02

2058 1.00 0.99 1.02

2059 1.00 0.99 1.02

2060 1.00 0.99 1.02

2061 1.00 0.99 1.02

2062 1.00 0.99 1.02

2063 1.00 0.99 1.02

2064 1.00 0.99 1.02

2065 1.00 0.99 1.02

2066 1.00 0.99 1.02
Scaling Factor

South United 

States North South

22.43 1.00 1.07 0.86

23.22 1.00 1.03 0.95

22.99 1.00 1.03 0.94

23.30 1.00 1.03 0.94

23.28 1.00 1.03 0.94

22.65 1.00 1.03 0.95

21.77 1.00 1.03 0.95

21.43 1.00 1.02 0.95

21.38 1.00 1.03 0.95

21.32 1.00 1.03 0.94

21.14 1.00 1.03 0.94

21.04 1.00 1.04 0.93

21.09 1.00 1.04 0.92

21.20 1.00 1.04 0.91

21.24 1.00 1.04 0.91

21.27 1.00 1.04 0.92

21.33 1.00 1.04 0.92

21.47 1.00 1.04 0.92

21.59 1.00 1.05 0.91

Electricity

21.64 1.00 1.05 0.91

21.68 1.00 1.05 0.91

21.64 1.00 1.05 0.91

21.60 1.00 1.05 0.91

21.58 1.00 1.05 0.91

21.63 1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91
1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91

1.00 1.05 0.91
Source: U.S. Census - Characteristics of New Housing C25 http://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/sftotalheati

Millions of new homes

sf mf tot sf mf tot sf

1973 0.56 0.50 0.13

1974 0.39 0.28 0.66 0.46 0.47 0.93 0.09

1975 0.35 0.15 0.49 0.43 0.26 0.69 0.08

1976 0.41 0.11 0.52 0.50 0.20 0.70 0.11

1977 0.48 0.12 0.59 0.64 0.26 0.90 0.12

1978 0.51 0.13 0.64 0.71 0.34 1.05 0.11

1979 0.51 0.15 0.66 0.66 0.39 1.05 0.09

1980 0.39 0.17 0.56 0.48 0.36 0.84 0.03

1981 0.34 0.14 0.48 0.41 0.29 0.70 0.02

1982 0.25 0.10 0.36 0.32 0.26 0.57 0.02

1983 0.40 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.33 0.78 0.02

1984 0.46 0.17 0.63 0.49 0.45 0.94 0.02

1985 0.47 0.20 0.66 0.53 0.43 0.95 0.04

1986 0.53 0.22 0.75 0.50 0.40 0.90 0.05

1987 0.58 0.22 0.81 0.45 0.31 0.75 0.06

1988 0.59 0.20 0.78 0.40 0.24 0.64 0.06

1989 0.60 0.17 0.76 0.35 0.22 0.57 0.05

1990 0.57 0.15 0.72 0.32 0.18 0.50 0.05

1991 0.51 0.10 0.61 0.27 0.14 0.41 0.04

1992 0.62 0.10 0.72 0.28 0.09 0.37 0.04

1993 0.68 0.08 0.76 0.30 0.07 0.37 0.03

1994 0.77 0.10 0.87 0.33 0.09 0.42 0.04

1995 0.71 0.12 0.83 0.31 0.13 0.43 0.04

1996 0.78 0.14 0.92 0.30 0.15 0.45 0.04

1997 0.77 0.13 0.90 0.30 0.16 0.45 0.04

Market Shares in New Homes, Historic Data

Gas Heated Homes Electric Heated Homes Oil Heated Homes

1997 0.77 0.13 0.90 0.30 0.16 0.45 0.04

1998 0.81 0.14 0.95 0.31 0.17 0.48 0.03

1999 0.88 0.14 1.03 0.34 0.19 0.53 0.04

2000 0.87 0.15 1.02 0.33 0.18 0.51 0.04

2001 0.88 0.15 1.02 0.34 0.17 0.50 0.04

2002 0.91 0.15 1.05 0.37 0.17 0.55 0.04

2003 0.97 0.15 1.12 0.38 0.14 0.52 0.03

Source: American Housing Survey 2003 Census Data: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/ahs.html

Single- and Multi-Family Homes (Mobile Homes Excluded)

Sum of SumOfW Fuel EIGHT Equipment

Electricity Fuel Oil

BUILT Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts Heat Pump Other Steam or Hot WForced W ater with Radiators arm Air Furnace with Ducts Other

1919 259769 123191 400460 64003 711558 79063

1920 185356 66578 253478 51611 212452 32344

1930 302903 147895 373187 31164 277368 22490

1940 438213 243207 516318 44350 389557 18021

1950 853132 617798 745253 50624 663631 41878

1960 1627368 1079937 1241538 103773 490692 29624

1970 1785443 1032165 1073711 54786 253925 9934

1975 2091938 1794201 1291231 68656 257207 14390

1980 1755120 1368684 520271 53658 96023 2456

1985 1495159 1785459 661499 27449 109266 10565
1990 174118 242776 62131 5501 12546 653

1991 147497 209440 80797 4800 9305

1992 118058 203887 37761 354 10478

1993 296818 300731 61882 3068 23573 908

1994 133457 249090 45037 399 16428 4138

1995 172908 258721 60720 1504 23522

1996 192820 273404 56197 15173 1485

1997 230263 294477 40160 2351 25141

1998 224934 262126 61558 1840 14990 749

1999 257773 330733 55207 8273 9962 442

2000 259602 322278 77762 2752 11283 3904

2001 368214 352350 37573 7723 16383 1318

2002 290227 329848 52257 10239 8819

2003 107432 163737 14181 11062 2598

Grand Total 13768522 12052716 7820168 598879 3670344 276958

Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts Heat Pump Other Steam or Hot WForced W ater with Radiators arm Air Furnace with Ducts Other

1999-2003 1283248 1498947 236980 28987 57509 8263

18.0% 21.1% 3.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%

Equipment Fractions FROM AHS 2003

GF Other GB EF HP Other

1970 81.1% 9.7% 9.2% 45.2% 26.2% 28.6%

1971 81.8% 9.3% 8.9% 44.2% 27.8% 28.1%

1972 82.5% 9.0% 8.5% 43.1% 29.4% 27.5%

1973 83.1% 8.7% 8.2% 42.0% 31.0% 27.0%

1974 83.8% 8.3% 7.9% 41.0% 32.6% 26.5%

1975 84.5% 8.0% 7.6% 39.9% 34.2% 25.9%

Gas Electric

1975 84.5% 8.0% 7.6% 39.9% 34.2% 25.9%

1976 85.4% 7.3% 7.3% 41.4% 34.8% 23.8%

1977 86.3% 6.7% 7.1% 42.9% 35.3% 21.8%

1978 87.1% 6.0% 6.8% 44.4% 35.9% 19.7%

1979 88.0% 5.4% 6.6% 45.9% 36.5% 17.6%

1980 88.9% 4.7% 6.3% 47.5% 37.0% 15.5%

1981 89.0% 4.7% 6.2% 45.5% 38.6% 15.9%

1982 89.2% 4.7% 6.2% 43.5% 40.2% 16.3%

1983 89.3% 4.7% 6.1% 41.6% 41.8% 16.6%

1984 89.4% 4.7% 6.0% 39.6% 43.4% 17.0%

1985 89.5% 4.7% 5.9% 37.7% 45.0% 17.4%

1986 90.2% 4.6% 5.2% 37.3% 46.0% 16.7%

1987 90.9% 4.5% 4.6% 37.0% 47.0% 16.0%

1988 91.6% 4.5% 3.9% 36.6% 48.1% 15.3%

1989 92.3% 4.4% 3.3% 36.3% 49.1% 14.6%

1990 93.0% 4.4% 2.6% 35.9% 50.1% 14.0%

1991 87.0% 6.2% 6.8% 33.3% 47.3% 19.3%

1992 92.1% 3.1% 4.7% 32.8% 56.6% 10.6%

1993 88.4% 5.1% 6.5% 44.8% 45.4% 9.8%

1994 90.2% 5.0% 4.8% 31.2% 58.2% 10.6%

1995 91.9% 2.6% 5.5% 35.0% 52.4% 12.6%

1996 91.6% 4.5% 3.9% 36.9% 52.3% 10.8%

1997 93.3% 2.7% 4.0% 40.6% 51.9% 7.5%
1998 92.8% 3.9% 3.3% 40.9% 47.6% 11.5%

1999 89.5% 4.1% 6.4% 39.5% 50.7% 9.7%

2000 92.2% 3.6% 4.2% 39.2% 48.7% 12.2%

2001 95.0% 1.9% 3.1% 48.1% 46.0% 5.9%

2002 92.5% 3.6% 3.9% 42.5% 48.3% 9.2%

2003 94.8% 1.2% 4.0% 37.6% 57.4% 5.0%

Source: American Housing Survey 2003 Census Data: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/ahs.html

Mobile Homes Only

Sum of SumOfW Fuel EIGHT Equipment

Electricity Fuel Oil

BUILT Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts Heat Pump Other Steam or Hot WForced W ater with Radiators arm Air Furnace with Ducts Other

1930 13324 2395 4466

1940 2358 12438 2105

1950 20210 7487 13872 6153

1960 154457 44445 40744 35758 7205

1970 253297 110837 59891 57805 2272

1975 278730 100804 70343 1402 55905

1980 199885 198526 53935 21373

1985 231886 94712 28473 33533 4941

1990 69410 56989 2238 1871

1991 58714 23366 3856

1992 37063 53180 3461

1993 132573 24571 1931 2672

1994 90401 34556 9360

1995 86929 20693 4818 5121

1996 116143 79878 20893

1997 189765 50589 3288 4578

1998 117670 80098 7258 12428

1999 117488 55356 7375 659

2000 105542 84563 18881 3624

2001 46632 67208 3016 15496

2002 42987 25406 14445

2003 17330 4905

Grand Total 2382792 1213261 368158 4863 271951 22212

Fuel Equipment 0 0 0 0

1999-2003 329978 232533 43717 0 24684 0

32.1% 22.6% 4.3% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0%

us.gov/const/C25Ann/sftotalheatingfuel.pdf http://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/mfuhfuelall.pdf

mf tot sf mf tot Gas Elec Oil GF

1.197 0.903 2.100

0.01 0.09 0.940 0.788 1.728 38% 54% 5% 32%

0.00 0.08 0.875 0.442 1.317 37% 52% 6% 32%

0.02 0.13 1.034 0.343 1.377 38% 51% 10% 32%

0.02 0.14 1.258 0.399 1.657 36% 54% 8% 31%

0.02 0.13 1.369 0.498 1.867 34% 56% 7% 30%

0.03 0.11 1.301 0.570 1.871 35% 56% 6% 31%

0.01 0.04 0.957 0.545 1.502 37% 56% 3% 33%

0.01 0.02 0.819 0.447 1.266 38% 55% 2% 34%

0.01 0.03 0.632 0.374 1.006 35% 57% 3% 31%

0.00 0.03 0.924 0.467 1.391 38% 56% 2% 34%

0.01 0.03 1.025 0.627 1.652 38% 57% 2% 34%

0.00 0.04 1.072 0.631 1.703 39% 56% 2% 35%

0.01 0.06 1.120 0.636 1.756 43% 51% 3% 38%

0.01 0.06 1.123 0.546 1.669 48% 45% 4% 44%

0.00 0.06 1.085 0.445 1.530 51% 42% 4% 47%

0.01 0.06 1.026 0.397 1.423 54% 40% 4% 49%

0.00 0.05 0.966 0.342 1.308 55% 38% 4% 51%

0.00 0.04 0.838 0.253 1.091 56% 37% 4% 48%

0.00 0.04 0.964 0.194 1.158 63% 32% 3% 58%

0.00 0.03 1.039 0.153 1.192 64% 31% 3% 57%

0.00 0.04 1.160 0.187 1.347 65% 31% 3% 58%

0.00 0.04 1.066 0.247 1.313 63% 33% 3% 58%

0.00 0.04 1.129 0.284 1.413 65% 32% 3% 59%

0.00 0.04 1.116 0.284 1.400 64% 32% 3% 60%

Oil Heated Homes Total Homes Fuel Type Market Shares

0.00 0.04 1.116 0.284 1.400 64% 32% 3% 60%

0.00 0.04 1.160 0.314 1.474 64% 33% 3% 60%

0.00 0.04 1.270 0.334 1.604 64% 33% 2% 57%

0.00 0.04 1.242 0.332 1.574 65% 32% 2% 58%

0.00 0.04 1.256 0.315 1.571 65% 32% 2% 58%

0.00 0.04 1.325 0.323 1.648 64% 33% 2% 57%

0.00 0.03 1.386 0.292 1.678 67% 31% 2% 60%

us.gov/hhes/www/ahs.html

Gas Other Grand Total

Steam or Hot WForced W ater with Radiators arm Air Furnace with Ducts Other Steam or Hot WForced W ater with Radiators arm Air Furnace with Ducts Heat Pump Other Steam or Hot Water with Radiators

1309585 3730570 739679 1612966 130848 7885 417945 39501 9627022

605175 2284494 596089 987958 32822 131853 30139 5470349

601644 2485771 921908 789333 35576 278853 12778 6280871

655329 3538648 1247745 634333 42788 304461 17120 8090092

922426 6653895 1448352 836684 53170 2296 367079 30242 13286460

722316 6988406 1029146 943677 58249 364161 18790 14697678

299042 4057814 484193 459830 51946 1521 239786 23303 9827399

402538 4071699 384539 364522 55518 264561 20480 11081479

109438 2231981 118691 158814 29495 147473 10082 6602187

161686 3205185 166600 210823 41223 123902 2375 8001190
32054 521548 24556 14568 5224 33015 1128691

19946 482126 34452 37879 13532 11894 1051669

17981 463900 15656 23898 9691 901663

39477 912248 52194 67132 5800 24220 4285 1792336

20313 679158 37638 35974 16183 1237816

34996 705798 19765 42048 5141 13481 1979 1340582

20188 763445 37304 32696 2863 17159 1412732

17889 741735 21357 31921 6267 14044 3641 1429245

19320 769541 32694 27434 6427 15717 1437329

38070 760963 34752 54154 3629 10515 3819 1568293

32990 798620 30795 36750 5333 18270 1517 1601857

14522 852235 16755 27789 8819 9593 1713274

6349 801965 31012 34185 4795 11353 2377 1583426

1489 332514 4149 14127 2558 653846

6104762 48834261 7530020 7479494 599464 11701 2847768 222429 111817485

Steam or Hot WForced W ater with Radiators arm Air Furnace with Ducts Other Steam or Hot WForced W ater with Radiators arm Air Furnace with Ducts Heat Pump Other Steam or Hot Water with Radiators 0

93419 3546297 117463 167005 22575 0 52290 7713 7120696

1.3% 49.8% 1.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 100%

OF Other OB

45.1% 1.8% 53.1%

43.7% 1.8% 54.4%

42.3% 1.9% 55.8%

40.9% 2.0% 57.1%

39.5% 2.1% 58.4%

38.2% 2.1% 59.7%

Oil

39.8% 1.9% 58.3%

41.4% 1.8% 56.9%

43.0% 1.6% 55.5%

44.6% 1.4% 54.1%

46.2% 1.2% 52.6%

44.7% 1.7% 53.6%

43.2% 2.2% 54.6%

41.8% 2.7% 55.5%

40.3% 3.2% 56.5%

38.8% 3.8% 57.4%

36.6% 3.3% 60.1%

34.4% 2.8% 62.8%

32.2% 2.4% 65.5%

29.9% 1.9% 68.2%

27.7% 1.4% 70.8%

31.8% 0.0% 68.2%

36.8% 0.0% 63.2%

36.9% 1.4% 61.7%

40.2% 10.1% 49.7%

40.2% 0.0% 59.8%

41.2% 4.0% 54.8%

58.4% 0.0% 41.6%
42.8% 2.1% 55.1%

20.6% 0.9% 78.5%

23.4% 8.1% 68.5%

50.8% 4.1% 45.1%

58.1% 0.0% 41.9%

73.0% 17.2% 9.8%

ov/hhes/www/ahs.html

Gas Other Grand Total

Steam or Hot WForced W ater with Radiators arm Air Furnace with Ducts Other Steam or Hot WForced W ater with Radiators arm Air Furnace with Ducts Other Steam or Hot Water with Radiators

31415 4631 2794 59025

5344 6773 3411 32427

46439 15970 8291 5542 123965

370054 33328 27074 73115 786178

1225 625180 95525 3765 50493 103085 2243 1365618

1888 519033 82911 2257 56223 72975 1242471

392956 42320 33599 41332 983927

383741 48310 2774 33591 15945 877907

76155 3653 2475 5611 218402

83728 2954 172618

32440 7740 133883

112087 13195 4162 291192

110150 2918 15857 4914 268156

139362 16594 273517

150594 7068 4456 3158 382189

128121 13906 4535 394783

86060 3500 10798 6573 324384

126803 2833 7642 318156

118067 11592 3283 3237 348790

50180 3233 9706 195470

40533 3389 5949 132708

7405 2801 32441

3113 3635848 392522 8796 284710 367738 2243 8958205

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 342989 21015 0 12064 20585 0 1027565 0

0.0% 33.4% 2.0% 0.0% 1.2% 2.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

GB Other EF HP Other OF Other

3.0% 3.2% 22% 18% 14% 2% 0%

2.8% 3.0% 21% 18% 14% 2% 0%

2.8% 2.8% 21% 18% 12% 4% 0%

2.5% 2.4% 23% 19% 12% 3% 0%

2.3% 2.1% 25% 20% 11% 3% 0%

2.3% 1.9% 26% 20% 10% 3% 0%

2.4% 1.8% 27% 21% 9% 1% 0%

2.4% 1.8% 25% 21% 9% 1% 0%

2.2% 1.7% 25% 23% 9% 1% 0%

2.3% 1.8% 23% 23% 9% 1% 0%

2.3% 1.8% 23% 25% 10% 1% 0%

2.3% 1.8% 21% 25% 10% 1% 0%

2.2% 2.0% 19% 23% 9% 1% 0%

2.2% 2.2% 17% 21% 7% 1% 0%

2.0% 2.3% 15% 20% 6% 1% 0%

1.7% 2.4% 14% 20% 6% 1% 0%

1.4% 2.4% 14% 19% 5% 1% 0%

3.8% 3.5% 12% 18% 7% 1% 0%

3.0% 1.9% 10% 18% 3% 1% 0%

4.2% 3.2% 14% 14% 3% 1% 0%

3.1% 3.2% 10% 18% 3% 1% 0%

3.4% 1.6% 11% 17% 4% 1% 0%

2.5% 2.9% 12% 17% 3% 1% 0%

2.6% 1.7% 13% 17% 2% 2% 0%

Equipment Market Shares C25 Fuel Shares + AHS Equipment Shares

Gas Equipment MS Elec Equipment MS Oil Equip MS

2.6% 1.7% 13% 17% 2% 2% 0%

2.1% 2.5% 13% 16% 4% 1% 0%

4.1% 2.6% 13% 17% 3% 0.5% 0%

4.1% 2.6% 13% 16% 3% 0.5% 0%

4.1% 2.7% 13% 16% 3% 0.5% 0%

4.1% 2.6% 13% 17% 3% 0.5% 0%

4.2% 2.7% 12% 16% 3% 0.4% 0%

HEAT PUMP Percentage of El

Southern Region

Grand Total Non-South

ot Water with Radiators Mobile Homes

American Housing Survey

Southern Region Only

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

Sum of SumOfweight HeatingEquipment FuelType

Central Warm Air Furnace

YearRange Electricity Gas

1919 73.0% 8.4% 1919 or Earlier 4814857 29110696

1925 80.0% 10.5% 1920-1929 2650487 23142800

1935 69.6% 6.7% 1930-1939 8942026 42079190

1945 71.4% 5.1% 1940-1949 16398841 76014261

Data from American Housing Survey 1995
1955 70.7% 3.6% 1950-1959 22426884 152654251

1965 61.5% 2.7% 1960-1969 53108356 194834437

1972 47.2% 2.5% 1970-1974 75036329 116997856

1976 37.0% 2.4% 1975-1978 62247548 76020505

1979 29.1% 3.0% 1979 29114029 28684679

1980 26.6% 4.1% 1980 14253404 12981374

1981 31.8% 5.1% 1981 13873327 14431003

1982 28.0% 4.7% 1982 14888368 12669102

1983 27.0% 4.0% 1983 20354442 17171318

1984 28.7% 3.9% 1984 28785663 21978005

1985 25.8% 3.5% 1985 21435004 18005713

1986 36.6% 4.5% 1986 18048218 23828033

1987 29.2% 4.3% 1987 14013133 15005749

1988 26.5% 4.3% 1988 8366946 11078661

1989 33.4% 4.7% 1989 9824401 15177627

1990 28.2% 4.9% 1990 12119333 12353740

1991 31.1% 4.9% 1991 12163326 15966156

1992 33.3% 5.2% 1992 9082050 16179857

1993 33.3% 4.8% 1993 9187177 18028222

1994 39.1% 5.6% 1994 9026177 24440902

1995 38.1% 6.8% 1995 6206441 13040686

Grand Total 496366767 1001874823

American Housing Survey

All Regions Excluding South

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

Sum of SumOfweight of SumOfweight HeatingEquipm HeatingEquipment FuelType

Central Warm Air Furnace

YearRange Electricity Gas

1919 95.0% 3.6% 1919 or Earlier 8850844 285388558

1925 93.9% 4.6% 1920-1929 5622559 155384388

1935 93.6% 4.5% 1930-1939 7342621 161003477

1945 93.7% 3.8% 1940-1949 8696200 212975223

1955 94.2% 2.7% 1950-1959 17829862 437160542

1965 91.4% 2.7% 1960-1969 26227355 436629016

1972 85.1% 3.2% 1970-1974 29028060 256501773

1976 74.0% 3.2% 1975-1978 37561490 188743082

1979 74.2% 4.6% 1979 11177073 79125158

1980 74.4% 8.2% 1980 5213990 33024506

1981 73.1% 8.6% 1981 6506581 31232990

1982 76.2% 12.0% 1982 1616200 18513846

1983 74.3% 8.7% 1983 4402775 31140659

1984 67.1% 7.8% 1984 5149783 29256262

1985 71.1% 6.6% 1985 7931137 41151325

1986 75.9% 7.8% 1986 4796494 36098454

1987 74.6% 6.9% 1987 6190648 42455699

1988 78.4% 7.6% 1988 5862450 40532483

1989 80.3% 7.3% 1989 4407332 44944251

1990 80.7% 7.8% 1990 5756836 45834702
1991 76.4% 7.7% 1991 6749177 42996828

1992 79.5% 7.7% 1992 6161518 48534433

1993 78.6% 7.4% 1993 5461957 49605439

1994 83.0% 8.2% 1994 4019324 50337757

1995 81.2% 10.1% 1995 2892155 30066802

Grand Total 235454421 2828637653

American Housing Survey

Manufactured Housing Only

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

Sum of SumOfweight HeatingEquipment FuelType

Central Warm Air Furnace

YearRange Electricity Gas

1919 88.6% 13.9% 1919 or Earlier 1263749 13501232

1925 92.1% 19.8% 1920-1929 422545 7126858

1935 86.6% 20.8% 1930-1939 884253 6222617

1945 81.7% 18.2% 1940-1949 1227945 6875645

1955 75.5% 13.9% 1950-1959 1611108 10073974

1965 59.7% 8.5% 1960-1969 7085655 15256035

1972 49.8% 7.2% 1970-1974 10490983 15363270

1976 36.7% 7.9% 1975-1978 5931318 6362903

1979 35.7% 8.6% 1979 3815124 3311724

1980 35.6% 13.9% 1980 2284158 1947272

1981 23.0% 10.6% 1981 2725153 1211222

1982 34.5% 15.2% 1982 2044804 1731998

1983 27.7% 11.2% 1983 2781099 1811886

1984 30.5% 11.0% 1984 2334592 2590182

1985 27.4% 11.8% 1985 2964118 1456966

1986 56.0% 25.2% 1986 766325 1510206 1510206

1987 44.7% 19.0% 1987 297816 1753176

1988 75.0% 40.5% 1988 382877 1149240

1989 33.6% 19.6% 1989 742864 724955

1990 36.7% 18.1% 1990 964601 1018180

1991 36.8% 21.8% 1991 1568867 1068603

1992 56.7% 41.4% 1992 672346

1993 70.9% 64.7% 1993 661663

1994 24.6% 27.0% 1994 201664 270463

1995 83.4% 46.4% 1995 1513871

Grand Total 52791618 105186487

South Non-South MH South Non-South

1965 38.5% 8.6% 40.3% 56.5% 36.1%

1972 52.8% 14.9% 50.2% 42.6% 35.2%

1976 63.0% 26.0% 63.3% 52.0% 43.4%

1979 70.9% 25.8% 64.3% 58.4% 59.4%

1980 73.4% 25.6% 64.4% 60.1% 54.1%

1981 68.2% 26.9% 77.0% 55.2% 43.4%

1982 72.0% 23.8% 65.5% 54.3% 72.1%

1983 73.0% 25.7% 72.3% 56.1% 59.1%

1984 71.3% 32.9% 69.5% 47.4% 64.0%

Total Electric % heat pump
1985 74.2% 28.9% 72.6% 58.5% 52.6%

1986 63.4% 24.1% 44.0% 56.3% 58.2%

1987 70.8% 25.4% 55.3% 61.4% 57.2%

1988 73.5% 21.6% 25.0% 72.8% 47.5%

1989 66.6% 19.7% 66.4% 67.6% 60.1%

1990 71.8% 19.3% 63.3% 61.5% 47.5%

1991 68.9% 23.6% 63.2% 65.6% 49.3%

1992 66.7% 20.5% 43.3% 71.9% 50.9%

1993 66.7% 21.4% 29.1% 74.5% 59.6%

1994 60.9% 17.0% 75.4% 76.3% 61.1%

1995 61.9% 18.8% 16.6% 70.8% 58.6%
OB GAS ELEC Other GF EF HP

3% 25% 71.7% 4% 21% 29% 23%

4% 26% 69.9% 5% 22% 28% 24%

6% 27% 65.9% 7% 23% 27% 23%

5% 24% 70.3% 5% 21% 30% 25%

4% 23% 73.6% 4% 20% 33% 26%

3% 22% 74.0% 4% 20% 34% 27%

1% 25% 72.7% 3% 22% 35% 27%

1% 26% 71.5% 3% 23% 33% 28%

1% 25% 72.6% 3% 22% 32% 29%

1% 26% 71.8% 2% 23% 30% 30%

1% 25% 73.6% 1% 22% 29% 32%

1% 22% 76.3% 1% 20% 29% 34%

2% 24% 73.5% 2% 22% 27% 34%

2% 28% 70.7% 2% 25% 26% 33%

3% 31% 67.2% 2% 28% 25% 32%

3% 32% 65.8% 2% 30% 24% 32%

3% 35% 62.6% 2% 33% 23% 31%

3% 40% 58.0% 2% 35% 19% 27%

2% 46% 52.5% 1% 43% 17% 30%

2% 48% 51.1% 1% 42% 23% 23%

1% 47% 52.2% 1% 43% 16% 30%

2% 45% 54.2% 1% 42% 19% 28%

1% 51% 48.1% 1% 47% 18% 25%

1% 52% 48.4% 0% 48% 20% 25%

Market Shares by Region

Fuel - Southern Homes Equipment - Southern Homes

1% 52% 48.4% 0% 48% 20% 25%

1% 51% 49.1% 0% 47% 20% 23%

1.9% 49% 50.6% 1% 43.8% 20% 26%

1.9% 49% 50.3% 1% 45% 20% 26%

1.7% 49% 50.3% 0% 47% 20% 25%

1.9% 42% 58.0% 0% 38% 23% 29%

1.5% 43% 57.1% 0% 40% 23% 29%

AT PUMP Percentage of Electric Heat

61%

53%

49%

American Housing Survey

Southern Region Only

NUMBER OF SAMPLES

Sum of CountOfweight

Electric Heat Pump Grand Total

Electricity Furn. HeatPump YearRange

5977817 39903370 12.1% 15.0% 55.4% 1919 or Earlier

3134494 28927781 9.2% 10.8% 54.2% 1920-1929

9419888 60441104 14.8% 15.6% 51.3% 1930-1939

14022885 106435987 15.4% 13.2% 46.1% 1940-1949

Fraction of Elec. Equip.
40869865 215951000 10.4% 18.9% 64.6% 1950-1959

69030967 316973760 16.8% 21.8% 56.5% 1960-1969

55601244 247635429 30.3% 22.5% 42.6% 1970-1974

67444493 205712546 30.3% 32.8% 52.0% 1975-1978

40834689 98633397 29.5% 41.4% 58.4% 1979

21489430 48724208 29.3% 44.1% 60.1% 1980

17119680 45424010 30.5% 37.7% 55.2% 1981

17696583 45254053 32.9% 39.1% 54.3% 1982

26045270 63571030 32.0% 41.0% 56.1% 1983

25893805 76657473 37.6% 33.8% 47.4% 1984

30222380 69663097 30.8% 43.4% 58.5% 1985

23248096 65124347 27.7% 35.7% 56.3% 1986

22310757 51329639 27.3% 43.5% 61.4% 1987

22396201 41841808 20.0% 53.5% 72.8% 1988

20461717 45463745 21.6% 45.0% 67.6% 1989

19337478 43810551 27.7% 44.1% 61.5% 1990

23235526 51365008 23.7% 45.2% 65.6% 1991

23259209 48521116 18.7% 47.9% 71.9% 1992

26852229 54067628 17.0% 49.7% 74.5% 1993

29069536 62536615 14.4% 46.5% 76.3% 1994

15015909 34263036 18.1% 43.8% 70.8% 1995

669990148 2168231738 Grand Total

American Housing Survey

All Regions Excluding South

NUMBER OF SAMPLES

Sum of CountOfweight

Electric Heat Pump Grand Total

Electricity Furn. HeatPump YearRange

6225542 300464944 1919 or Earlier

4430525 165437472 1920-1929

3587114 171933212 1930-1939

5631492 227302915 1940-1949

9071154 464061558 1950-1959

14793755 477650126 5.5% 3.1% 36.1% 1960-1969

15772863 301302696 9.6% 5.2% 35.2% 1970-1974

28819191 255123763 14.7% 11.3% 43.4% 1975-1978

16351482 106653713 10.5% 15.3% 59.4% 1979

6151295 44389791 11.7% 13.9% 54.1% 1980

4985334 42724905 15.2% 11.7% 43.4% 1981

4175952 24305998 6.6% 17.2% 72.1% 1982

6358123 41901557 10.5% 15.2% 59.1% 1983

9165989 43572034 11.8% 21.0% 64.0% 1984

8798797 57881259 13.7% 15.2% 52.6% 1985

6682357 47577305 10.1% 14.0% 58.2% 1986

8290206 56936553 10.9% 14.6% 57.2% 1987

5304108 51699041 11.3% 10.3% 47.5% 1988

6632614 55984197 7.9% 11.8% 60.1% 1989

5215089 56806627 10.1% 9.2% 47.5% 1990

Fraction of Elec. Equip.
6561457 56307462 12.0% 11.7% 49.3% 1991

6381731 61077682 10.1% 10.4% 50.9% 1992

8066712 63134108 8.7% 12.8% 59.6% 1993

6319072 60676153 6.6% 10.4% 61.1% 1994

4091782 37050739 7.8% 11.0% 58.6% 1995

207863736 3271955810 Grand Total

American Housing Survey

Manufactured Housing Only

NUMBER OF SAMPLES

Sum of CountOfweight

Electric Heat Pump Grand Total

Electricity Furn. HeatPump YearRange

465202 15230183 1919 or Earlier

188164 7737567 1920-1929

82577 7189447 1930-1939

307286 8410876 1940-1949

1655511 13340593 1950-1959

3203247 25544937 27.7% 12.5% 31.1% 1960-1969

4997459 30851712 34.0% 16.2% 32.3% 1970-1974

5046423 17340644 34.2% 29.1% 46.0% 1975-1978

2143145 9269993 41.2% 23.1% 36.0% 1979

1232658 5464088 41.8% 22.6% 35.1% 1980

1339445 5275820 51.7% 25.4% 33.0% 1981

1236739 5013541 40.8% 24.7% 37.7% 1982

1936486 6529471 42.6% 29.7% 41.0% 1983

3572608 8497382 27.5% 42.0% 60.5% 1984

894226 5315310 55.8% 16.8% 23.2% 1985

418049 2694580 28.4% 15.5% 35.3% 1986

Fraction of Elec. Equip.

418049 2694580 28.4% 15.5% 35.3% 1986

1867801 3918793 7.6% 47.7% 86.2% 1987

1532117 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1988

687565 2155384 34.5% 31.9% 48.1% 1989

789632 2772413 34.8% 28.5% 45.0% 1990

268203 2905673 54.0% 9.2% 14.6% 1991

513659 1186005 0.0% 43.3% 100.0% 1992

271630 933293 0.0% 29.1% 100.0% 1993

625554 1097681 18.4% 57.0% 75.6% 1994

301237 1815108 0.0% 16.6% 100.0% 1995

34044506 192022611 Grand Total

MH

31.1%

32.3%

46.0%

36.0%

35.1%

33.0%

37.7%

41.0%

60.5%
23.2%

35.3%

86.2%

0.0%

48.1%

45.0%

14.6%

100.0%

100.0%

75.6%

100.0%
GAS ELEC Other GF EF HP

49% 40% 10% 41% 16% 13%

45% 41% 14% 38% 16% 14%

44% 42% 14% 38% 17% 15%

43% 44% 13% 37% 19% 16%

42% 44% 13% 37% 20% 16%

44% 44% 12% 39% 20% 16%

48% 42% 10% 43% 20% 16%

50% 40% 10% 45% 18% 15%

47% 38% 14% 42% 17% 15%

53% 38% 10% 47% 16% 16%

52% 39% 9% 47% 16% 17%

54% 38% 8% 49% 14% 17%

57% 34% 9% 51% 13% 16%

62% 28% 10% 56% 11% 13%

64% 26% 10% 59% 9% 12%

67% 24% 9% 62% 9% 12%

68% 23% 9% 63% 8% 11%

67% 23% 10% 58% 8% 11%

74% 18% 8% 68% 6% 10%

76% 17% 7% 67% 7% 8%

78% 15% 6% 71% 5% 9%

77% 16% 7% 71% 6% 8%

73% 22% 5% 67% 8% 12%

72% 23% 4% 68% 9% 12%

Market Shares by Region

Fuel - Non-Southern Homes Equipment - Non-Southern Homes

72% 23% 4% 68% 9% 12%

72% 23% 4% 67% 10% 11%

73% 23% 4% 65% 9% 12%

74% 22% 4% 68% 9% 11%

75% 21% 4% 71% 8% 11%

83% 12% 5% 77% 5% 6%

86% 9% 5% 82% 4% 5%

merican Housing Survey

uthern Region Only

MBER OF SAMPLES

HeatingEquipment FuelType

Central Warm Air Furnace Electric Heat Pump Grand Total

Electricity Gas Electricity

19 132 25 176

11 104 14 129

33 186 42 261

71 339 61 471
98 666 176 940

231 841 300 1372

323 507 245 1075

272 336 295 903

119 121 164 404

59 53 85 197

49 51 62 162

58 44 63 165

65 57 90 212

102 69 91 262

85 68 123 276

73 89 96 258

57 60 92 209

36 49 98 183

40 67 92 199

24 43 68 135

34 55 70 159

26 55 77 158

25 66 77 168

21 66 92 179

18 44 49 111

1949 4168 2647 8764

merican Housing Survey

 Regions Excluding South

MBER OF SAMPLES

HeatingEquipment FuelType

Central Warm Air Furnace Electric Heat Pump Grand Total

Electricity Gas Electricity

43 1392 35 1470

27 799 22 848

32 839 21 892

46 1164 29 1239

94 2429 49 2572

127 2280 73 2480

131 1281 71 1483

171 945 131 1247

57 454 79 590

25 141 28 194

27 124 18 169

5 72 16 93

17 128 24 169

21 123 37 181

35 202 38 275

20 165 31 216

26 204 37 267

25 189 24 238

20 219 30 269

20 196 21 237
22 173 27 222

17 193 26 236

19 205 28 252

10 187 25 222

10 117 16 143

1047 14221 936 16204

merican Housing Survey

nufactured Housing Only

MBER OF SAMPLES

HeatingEquipment FuelType

Central Warm Air Furnace Electric Heat Pump Grand Total

Electricity Gas Electricity

6 77 2 85

2 42 1 45

5 32 1 38

5 37 2 44

7 53 6 66

29 81 14 124

49 73 22 144

28 30 22 80

18 26 9 53

9 9 6 24

10 6 5 21

8 7 5 20

10 8 8 26

9 10 13 32

13 7 4 24

3 8 2 13

1 8 9 18

2 6 8

4 4 3 11

3 6 4 13

5 4 1 10

3 2 5

2 1 3

1 1 3 5

6 1 7

227 546 146 919
DRAFT

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace

Trial 

Standard 

Level AFUE

Description Annual Gas 

Use

Winter 

Electricity 

Use

Installed 

Price 

 Market 

Average Gas 

Use

Market 

Average Elec 

UEC

Market 

Average 

Installed Price

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost

Market 

Average 

Maintenance 

Cost

AFUE Market 

Share 2015

Cum. Mkt 

Share Gas UEC Electricity UEC

 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ 2004$ 2004$ 78 1.6% 1.6% 67.9 596.9

0 78 78% AFUE - Baseline 67.90 596.9 $1,877 65.99 570 2,250 $39 $39 80 52.8% 54.3% 66.0 585.4

1 80 80% AFUE - Increased HXArea 65.99 585.4 $1,895 65.97 570 2,250 $39 $39 81 0.0% 54.3% 0.0 0.0

80 80% AFUE - Modulation (2-stage) 67.04 402.1 $2,183 66.54 471 2,406 $49 $45 90 10.8% 65.1% 56.1 460.7

3 81 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 65.32 579.5 $1,963 65.61 567 2,287 $39 $39 92 32.3% 97.5% 69.3 581.6

81 81% AFUE - Modulation (2-stage) 66.13 398.7 $2,251 66.05 469 2,443 $49 $45 96 2.6% 100.0% 64.9 568.4

4 90 90% AFUE 59.36 507.5 $2,519 62.73 533 2,585 $39 $39

92 92% AFUE - Increased HXArea 61.97 526.2 $2,685 62.05 527 2,702 $39 $39 Market Average AFUE 85.3

92 92% AFUE - Modulation (2-stage) 62.67 359.7 $2,933 62.73 365 2,944 $49 $49 Market Average UEC 66.0

92 92% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous) 61.93 534.4 $2,974 62.01 535 2,984 $49 $49

5 96 96% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous) 60.01 517.5 $3,484 60.01 517 3,484 $49 $49

(0.02) 0.11

Weatherized Gas Furnace

Trial 

Standard 

Level AFUE

Description Annual Gas 

Use

Winter 

Electricity 

Use

Installed 

Price 

 Market 

Average Gas 

Use

Market 

Average Elec 

UEC

Market 

Average 

Installed Price

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost

AFUE Market 

Share 2015

Cum. Mkt 

Share Gas UEC Electricity UEC

 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ 2004$ 78 2% 2.0% 35.8 316.9

0 78 78% AFUE - Baseline 35.8 316.9 $3,651 32.5 288.6 $3,626 $39 80 52% 54.0% 32.5 288.9

1 80 80% AFUE - Increased HXArea 32.5 289.6 $3,621 32.5 288.4 $3,626 $39 81 26% 80.0% 32.9 291.5

81 81% AFUE - Increased HXArea 32.4 287.9 $3,630 32.3 286.6 $3,631 $39 82 20% 100.0% 31.6 281.1

82 82% AFUE - Increased HXArea 31.9 283.8 $3,636 31.9 283.8 $3,636 $39

2 83 83% AFUE - Increased HXArea 31.6 280.5 $3,648 31.6 280.5 $3,648 $39 Market Average AFUE 80.6

Market Average UEC 32.5

Mobile Home Gas Furnaces

Trial 

Standard 

Level AFUE

Description Annual Gas 

Use

Winter 

Electricity 

Use

Installed 

Price 

 Market 

Average Gas 

Use

Market 

Average Elec 

UEC

Market 

Average 

Installed Price

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost

Weighted 

Average 

Maint. Cost

AFUE Market 

Share 2015

Cum. Mkt 

Share Gas UEC Electricity UEC

LCC Inputs

 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ 2004$ 2004$ 75 0.15 15% 45.1 401.7

0 75 75% AFUE - Baseline 45.1 401.7 $762 39.7 381.2 $846 $4 $17 80 0.80 95% 39.0 380.1

1 80 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area 39.2 381.6 $841 38.9 379.4 $858 $19 $19 90 0.05 100% 34.8 338.3

80 80% AFUE Modulation 2 stage 39.7 254.4 $1,204 39.4 258.6 $1,203 $24 $24

3 81 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 38.7 377.1 $933 38.5 375.1 $946 $19 $19 Market Average AFUE 79.8

81 81% AFUE Modulation 2 stage 39.2 251.6 $1,296 39.0 256.0 $1,291 $24 $24 Market Average UEC 39.7

82 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area 38.2 372.7 $960 38.1 370.9 $972 $19 $19

82 82% AFUE Modulation 2 stage 38.8 248.9 $1,323 38.6 253.3 $1,317 $24 $24

4 90 90% AFUE Condensing 35.0 333.4 $1,189 35.0 333.7 $1,189 $26 $26

Trial 

Standard 

Level AFUE

Description Annual Oil 

Use

Winter 

Electricity 

Use

Installed 

Price 

 Market 

Average Gas 

Use

Market 

Average Elec 

UEC

Market 

Average 

Installed Price

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost

AFUE Market 

Share 2015

Cum. Mkt 

Share

Annual Oil 

Use 

(MMBtu)

Winter 

Electricity Use 

(kWh)

 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ 2004$ 78 4.0% 4.0% 74.12 798.60

0 78 78%AFUE - Baseline 74.1 798.6 $2,890 70.7 761.5 $2,980 $110 80 57.0% 61.0% 71.63 772.59

1 80 80%AFUE- IncreasedHXArea 71.7 773.0 $2,901 70.6 760.7 $2,980 $110 81 9.0% 70.0% 71.13 763.31

81 81%AFUE - IncreasedHXArea 70.9 763.9 $2,906 70.1 755.2 $2,984 $110 82 7.5% 77.5% 70.27 753.00

81 81%AFUE Interrupted Ignition 71.6 591.9 $2,930 70.6 634.8 $3,000 $110 83 7.5% 85.0% 68.24 728.97

81 81%AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 72.5 388.9 $3,204 71.2 492.7 $3,192 $110 84 7.5% 92.5% 68.43 737.30

82 82%AFUE - IncreasedHXArea 70.1 754.8 $2,910 69.5 748.9 $2,986 $110 85 7.5% 100.0% 66.34 720.22

2 82 82%AFUE Interrupted Ignition 70.8 584.9 $2,944 70.1 617.3 $3,013 $110 

82 82%AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 71.6 384.2 $3,207 70.7 461.8 $3,217 $110 Market Average AFUE 81.1

83 83%AFUE - IncreasedHXArea 69.2 744.6 $3,078 68.9 742.2 $3,115 $110 Market Average UEC 70.7

83 83%AFUE Interrupted Ignition 69.9 576.8 $3,112 69.5 599.6 $3,144 $110 

83 83%AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 70.7 379.3 $3,376 70.2 431.8 $3,368 $110 

84 84%AFUE - IncreasedHXArea 68.4 736.2 $3,243 68.2 735.0 $3,255 $110 

4 84 84%AFUE Interrupted Ignition 69.1 570.2 $3,277 68.9 581.4 $3,287 $110 

84 84%AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 69.9 375.1 $3,540 69.6 401.0 $3,530 $110 

85 85%AFUE - IncreasedHXArea 67.5 727.3 $3,414 67.5 727.3 $3,414 $110 

5 85 85%AFUE Interrupted Ignition 68.2 563.0 $3,448 68.2 563.0 $3,448 $110 

85 85%AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 68.9 370.9 $3,712 68.9 370.9 $3,712 $110 

Gas Boiler

Oil Furnace

0900006480fa5bd8.xls Julie Osborn 1/26/20124:39 PM
DRAFT

Trial 

Standard 

Level AFUE

Description Annual Gas 

Use

Winter 

Electricity 

Use

Installed 

Price 

 Market 

Average Gas 

Use

Market 

Average Elec 

UEC

Market 

Average 

Installed Price

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost

Weighted 

Average 

Maint. Cost

AFUE Market 

Share 2015

Cum. Mkt 

Share

Annual Gas 

Use 

(MMBtu)

Winter 

Electricity Use 

(kWh)

 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ 2004$ 2004$ 80 35% 35% 78.42 132.8

0 80 80% AFUE - Baseline 78.4 132.8 $3,335 75.54 141.3 $3,592 $39 $39 81 22% 56% 76.65 151.0

81 81% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 75.5 148.0 $3,407 74.28 145.9 $3,617 $39 $39 82 14% 70% 73.11 146.5

81 81% AFUE Two stage Modulation + Induced Draft 75.3 188.7 $3,558 74.19 168.8 $3,702 $49 $45 83 15% 85% 74.59 145.2

1 82 82% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 74.3 146.2 $3,499 73.77 144.9 $3,670 $39 $39 84 9% 94% 73.55 143.2

82 82% AFUE Two stage Modulation + Induced Draft 74.1 186.7 $3,651 73.65 173.3 $3,776 $49 $46 91 3% 97% 65.66 132.0

83 83% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 73.6 144.6 $3,664 73.14 143.6 $3,784 $39 $39 99 3% 100% 65.72 128.0

83 83% AFUE Two stage Modulation + Induced Draft 73.5 184.7 $3,816 73.00 177.8 $3,913 $49 $48

2 84 84% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 72.8 143.0 $3,659 72.40 142.2 $3,780 $39 $39 Market Average AFUE 82.2

84 84% AFUE Two stage Modulation + Induced Draft 72.7 182.8 $3,810 72.25 179.7 $3,922 $49 $49 Market Average UEC 75.5

85 85% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 72.0 141.3 $3,947 71.60 140.6 $4,051 $39 $39

85 85% AFUE Two stage Modulation + Induced Draft 71.8 180.9 $4,098 71.45 177.9 $4,193 $49 $49

86 86% AFUE Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 71.1 139.7 $4,529 70.82 139.1 $4,599 $39 $39

91 91% AFUE 67.2 132.1 $5,128 67.17 131.9 $5,162 $49 $49

5 99 99% AFUE 61.9 121.7 $6,223 61.94 121.7 $6,223 $49 $49

Oil Boiler

Trial 

Standard 

Level AFUE

Description Annual Oil 

Use

Winter 

Electricity 

Use

Installed 

Price 

 Market 

Average Gas 

Use

Market 

Average Elec 

UEC

Market 

Average 

Installed Price

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost

AFUE Market 

Share 2015

Cum. Mkt 

Share

Annual Gas 

Use 

(MMBtu)

Winter 

Electricity Use 

(kWh)

 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ 2004$ 80 5.3% 5% 83.32 306.06

0 80 80% AFUE 83.3 306.1 $3,605 79.14 280.3 $3,998 $110 81 5.4% 11% 81.43 298.90

81 81% AFUE- IncreasedHXArea 81.9 300.6 $3,625 79.09 280.1 $3,998 $110 82 5.3% 16% 82.72 289.42

81 81% AFUE Interrupted Ignition 82.1 240.6 $3,660 79.12 273.7 $4,002 $110 83 23.3% 39% 79.36 286.95

82 82% AFUE- IncreasedHXArea 81.5 294.5 $3,644 78.98 279.7 $3,999 $110 84 23.4% 63% 78.60 284.69

82 82% AFUE Interrupted Ignition 81.7 235.6 $3,679 79.02 270.3 $4,005 $110 85 23.3% 86% 79.48 280.57

82 82% AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 81.4 314.7 $3,955 78.97 283.0 $4,049 $110 86 7.0% 93% 76.60 272.90

1 83 83% AFUE- IncreasedHXArea 79.8 288.6 $3,652 78.83 279.2 $4,000 $110 90 7.0% 100% 73.98 209.64

83 83% AFUE Interrupted Ignition 80.1 230.9 $3,688 78.92 256.5 $4,014 $110 

83 83% AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 79.8 309.1 $3,963 78.80 287.3 $4,122 $110 Market Average AFUE 84.1

4 84 84% AFUE- IncreasedHXArea 78.8 285.0 $3,885 78.46 277.9 $4,091 $110 Market Average UEC 79.1

84 84% AFUE Interrupted Ignition 79.0 228.1 $3,920 78.61 242.2 $4,113 $110 

84 84% AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 78.7 305.4 $4,196 78.41 290.6 $4,286 $110 

85 85% AFUE- IncreasedHXArea 85% AFUE- IncreasedHXArea 78.3 281.4 $4,127 77.89 275.8 $4,241 $110 

85 85% AFUE Interrupted Ignition 78.5 225.2 $4,162 78.08 227.4 $4,272 $110 

85 85% AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 78.2 301.9 $4,438 77.82 293.4 $4,509 $110 

86 86% AFUE- IncreasedHXArea 77.4 277.8 $4,354 77.12 273.0 $4,437 $110 

86 86% AFUE Interrupted Ignition 77.6 222.3 $4,389 77.32 221.4 $4,470 $110 

86 86% AFUE Fan Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 77.3 298.3 $4,665 77.04 292.1 $4,726 $110 

90 90% AFUE 74.1 212.3 $5,491 74.15 212.3 $5,491 $110 

5 95 95% AFUE 70.3 201.2 $6,385 70.29 201.2 $6,385 $110 

0900006480fa5bd8.xls Julie Osborn 1/26/20124:39 PM
DRAFT Case 4 Case 2

United States United States

Installed Price

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost

Description Annual 

Gas Use

Winter 

Electricity 

Use

Installed 

Price 

Annual 

Gas Use

Winter 

Electricity 

Use

Installed 

Price 

Annual 

Gas Use

Winter 

Electricity 

Use

Installed 

Price 

Market 

Share 

2015

Gas UEC Electricity 

UEC

Installed 

Price

Annual 

Maintena

nce Cost

Market 

Share 

2015

$1,877 $39 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2004$ 1.7% 39.4 355.4 $1,824 $39 1.6%

$1,896 $39 78% AFUE - Baseline 39.43 355.4 $1,824 67.90 596.9 $1,877 30.41 286.2 $1,844 62.4% 48.1 424.9 $1,880 $39 52.8%

$0 $39 80% AFUE - Increased HXArea 47.90 422.9 $1,879 65.99 585.4 $1,895 45.84 404.2 $1,873 0.5% 61.0 542.6 $1,947 $39 0.0%

$2,553 $39 80% AFUE - Modulation (2-stage) 48.50 281.4 $2,111 67.04 402.1 $2,183 46.55 279.7 $2,156 8.5% 60.1 507.7 $2,494 $39 10.8%

$2,656 $39 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 47.44 418.9 $1,946 65.32 579.5 $1,963 45.58 401.9 $1,944 23.3% 58.3 488.0 $2,750 $39 32.3%

$3,365 $49 81% AFUE - Modulation (2-stage) 48.03 278.6 $2,178 66.13 398.7 $2,251 46.14 278.3 $2,227 3.5% 62.0 540.2 $3,410 $49 2.6%

90% AFUE 44.91 382.2 $2,491 59.36 507.5 $2,519 42.83 366.3 $2,497

92% AFUE - Increased HXArea 47.42 401.7 $2,688 61.97 526.2 $2,685 45.62 388.1 $2,687

92% AFUE - Modulation (2-stage) 47.93 264.3 $2,936 62.67 359.7 $2,933 46.11 268.7 $2,935

92% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous) 47.36 417.0 $2,977 61.93 534.4 $2,974 45.59 396.6 $2,976

96% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous) 46.03 406.0 $3,488 60.01 517.5 $3,484 44.23 384.4 $3,487

Installed Price

$3,651

$3,619

$3,634

$3,632

Installed Price

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost

$762 $4

$841 $19

$1,189 $26

Installed Price 

(2004$)

$2,890

$2,901

$2,900

$2,913

$3,100

$3,239

$3,407

0900006480fa5bd8.xls Julie Osborn 1/26/20124:39 PM
DRAFT

Installed Price 

(2004$)

Annual 

Maintenance 

Cost

$3,335 $39

$3,409 $39

$3,490 $39

$3,677 $39

$3,653 $39

$5,145 $39

$6,253 $49

Installed Price 

(2004$)

$3,605

$3,636

$3,666

$3,653

$3,886

$4,133

$4,354

$5,536

0900006480fa5bd8.xls Julie Osborn 1/26/20124:39 PM
DRAFT

Gas UEC Electricity 

UEC

Installed 

Price

Annual 

Maintena

nce Cost

Market 

Share 

2015

Gas UEC Electricity 

UEC

Installed 

Price

Annual 

Maintena

nce Cost

67.9 596.9 $1,877 $39 1.3% 30.4 286.2 $1,844 $39

66.0 585.4 $1,896 $39 66.1% 46.2 406.7 $1,874 $39

0.0 0.0 $0 $39 1.2% 57.6 507.8 $2,099 $39

56.1 460.7 $2,553 $39 8.2% 50.8 427.0 $2,574 $39

69.3 581.6 $2,656 $39 21.2% 58.5 490.5 $2,730 $39

64.9 568.4 $3,365 $49 2.1% 52.2 466.1 $3,414 $49

0900006480fa5bd8.xls Julie Osborn 1/26/20124:39 PM
Source: Gas Furnace, Oil Furnace, Electric Furnace and Heat Pump Replacement Rates: Appliance M

Life Expectancy

Oil Electric Gas Oil

NW W MH Furnace Furnace Boiler Boiler

Low 10 12 14 10 11 20 20

Point 20 18 19 15 17 25 25

High 30 24 23 20 23 30 30

Retirement Probability

30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

29 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0%

28 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.0%

27 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0%

26 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.0%

25 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 20.0%

24 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.0%

23 7.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0%

22 8.0% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 2.8% 8.0% 8.0%

21 9.0% 8.3% 11.1% 0.0% 5.6% 4.0% 4.0%

20 10.0% 11.1% 16.7% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%

19 9.0% 13.9% 22.2% 4.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%

18 8.0% 16.7% 17.8% 8.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%

17 7.0% 13.9% 13.3% 12.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0%

16 6.0% 11.1% 8.9% 16.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%

15 5.0% 8.3% 4.4% 20.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%

14 4.0% 5.6% 0.0% 16.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Retirement Function

Gas Furnace

14 4.0% 5.6% 0.0% 16.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%

13 3.0% 2.8% 0.0% 12.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%

12 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%

11 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

25%

Non-WeHeating atherized Gas Furnace Equipment Retirement Function

Weatherized Gas Furnace
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

R

etire

m

e

nt Pro

b

a

bility

Years

Weatherized Gas Furnace

Mobile Home Furnace

Oil Furnace

Electric Furnace

Gas Boiler

Oil Boiler

Heat Pump
mp Replacement Rates: Appliance Magazine, September 2001

Heat Oil Electric Gas Oil

Pump NW W MH Furnace Furnace Boiler Boiler

6

14

21

Retirement Probability

0.0% 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1.9% 11 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3.8% 12 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%

5.7% 13 3.0% 2.8% 0.0% 12.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%

7.6% 14 4.0% 5.6% 0.0% 16.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%

9.5% 15 5.0% 8.3% 4.4% 20.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%

11.4% 16 6.0% 11.1% 8.9% 16.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%

13.3% 17 7.0% 13.9% 13.3% 12.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0%

Gas Furnace

13.3% 17 7.0% 13.9% 13.3% 12.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0%

11.7% 18 8.0% 16.7% 17.8% 8.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%

10.0% 19 9.0% 13.9% 22.2% 4.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%

8.3% 20 10.0% 11.1% 16.7% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%

6.7% 21 9.0% 8.3% 11.1% 0.0% 5.6% 4.0% 4.0%

5.0% 22 8.0% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 2.8% 8.0% 8.0%

3.3% 23 7.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0%

1.7% 24 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.0%

0.0% 25 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 20.0%

0.0% 26 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.0%

0.0% 27 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0%

0.0% 28 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.0%

0.0% 29 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0%

0.0% 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Heat Oil Electric Gas Oil

Pump NW W MH Furnace Furnace Boiler Boiler

Survival Probability

0.0% 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 4 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

1.7% 7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

3.3% 8 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

5.0% 9 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

6.7% 10 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

8.3% 11 99.0% 100.0% 100.0% 96.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

10.0% 12 97.0% 100.0% 100.0% 88.0% 97.2% 100.0% 100.0%

11.7% 13 94.0% 97.2% 100.0% 76.0% 91.7% 100.0% 100.0%

13.3% 14 90.0% 91.7% 100.0% 60.0% 83.3% 100.0% 100.0%

11.4% 15 85.0% 83.3% 95.6% 40.0% 72.2% 100.0% 100.0%

9.5% 16 79.0% 72.2% 86.7% 24.0% 58.3% 100.0% 100.0%

7.6% 17 72.0% 58.3% 73.3% 12.0% 41.7% 100.0% 100.0%

Gas Furnace

7.6% 17 72.0% 58.3% 73.3% 12.0% 41.7% 100.0% 100.0%

5.7% 18 64.0% 41.7% 55.6% 4.0% 27.8% 100.0% 100.0%

3.8% 19 55.0% 27.8% 33.3% 0.0% 16.7% 100.0% 100.0%

1.9% 20 45.0% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 8.3% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 21 36.0% 8.3% 5.6% 0.0% 2.8% 96.0% 96.0%

0.0% 22 28.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88.0% 88.0%

0.0% 23 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76.0% 76.0%

0.0% 24 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 60.0%

0.0% 25 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 40.0%

0.0% 26 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 24.0%

0.0% 27 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0%

0.0% 28 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0%

0.0% 29 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Heat Oil Electric Gas Oil

Pump NW W MH Furnace Furnace Boiler Boiler

Survival Probability

100.0% 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

100.0% 29 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

100.0% 28 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0%

100.0% 27 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0%

100.0% 26 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 24.0%

100.0% 25 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 40.0%

98.3% 24 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 60.0%

95.0% 23 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76.0% 76.0%

90.0% 22 28.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88.0% 88.0%

83.3% 21 36.0% 8.3% 5.6% 0.0% 2.8% 96.0% 96.0%

75.0% 20 45.0% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 8.3% 100.0% 100.0%

65.0% 19 55.0% 27.8% 33.3% 0.0% 16.7% 100.0% 100.0%

53.3% 18 64.0% 41.7% 55.6% 4.0% 27.8% 100.0% 100.0%

40.0% 17 72.0% 58.3% 73.3% 12.0% 41.7% 100.0% 100.0%

28.6% 16 79.0% 72.2% 86.7% 24.0% 58.3% 100.0% 100.0%

19.0% 15 85.0% 83.3% 95.6% 40.0% 72.2% 100.0% 100.0%

11.4% 14 90.0% 91.7% 100.0% 60.0% 83.3% 100.0% 100.0%

Gas Furnace

11.4% 14 90.0% 91.7% 100.0% 60.0% 83.3% 100.0% 100.0%

5.7% 13 94.0% 97.2% 100.0% 76.0% 91.7% 100.0% 100.0%

1.9% 12 97.0% 100.0% 100.0% 88.0% 97.2% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 11 99.0% 100.0% 100.0% 96.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 10 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 9 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 8 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 4 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Heat

Pump

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.9%

5.7%

11.4%

19.0%

28.6%

40.0%

53.3%

65.0%

75.0%

83.3%

90.0%

95.0%

98.3%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2005

REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO

2004 2.02 2.02 2.02 1.58 1.58 1.58 0.32 0.32

2005 1.86 1.70 2.05 1.47 1.33 1.59 0.26 0.24

2006 1.78 1.65 1.96 1.37 1.27 1.49 0.26 0.24

2007 1.82 1.69 2.03 1.35 1.24 1.49 0.29 0.27

2008 1.82 1.67 2.05 1.32 1.20 1.47 0.29 0.26

2009 1.81 1.64 2.05 1.29 1.16 1.45 0.29 0.26

2010 1.82 1.64 2.09 1.28 1.15 1.47 0.30 0.26

2011 1.84 1.63 2.11 1.30 1.14 1.49 0.30 0.26

2012 1.81 1.58 2.05 1.28 1.11 1.45 0.30 0.25

2013 1.80 1.54 2.03 1.27 1.08 1.44 0.30 0.25

2014 1.82 1.53 2.04 1.29 1.07 1.46 0.31 0.26

2015 1.77 1.47 1.98 1.26 1.03 1.42 0.30 0.25

2016 1.72 1.42 1.92 1.21 0.97 1.36 0.31 0.26

2017 1.70 1.40 1.89 1.19 0.95 1.33 0.32 0.27

2018 1.69 1.40 1.87 1.18 0.95 1.31 0.33 0.28

2019 1.70 1.41 1.88 1.19 0.96 1.33 0.33 0.28

2020 1.71 1.39 1.90 1.21 0.95 1.35 0.33 0.28

2021 1.70 1.36 1.91 1.20 0.93 1.35 0.33 0.28

2022 1.70 1.35 1.92 1.20 0.92 1.36 0.33 0.28

2023 1.70 1.32 1.94 1.20 0.91 1.37 0.33 0.27

2024 1.69 1.30 1.94 1.20 0.89 1.37 0.34 0.27

2025 1.68 1.28 1.94 1.19 0.88 1.37 0.33 0.27

2026 1.69 1.28 1.94 1.20 0.88 1.38 0.34 0.27

2027 1.70 1.28 1.94 1.20 0.89 1.39 0.34 0.27

2028 1.70 1.28 1.94 1.21 0.89 1.39 0.34 0.27

2029 1.71 1.28 1.94 1.22 0.90 1.40 0.34 0.27

2030 1.72 1.28 1.94 1.22 0.90 1.41 0.34 0.27

2031 1.73 1.28 1.94 1.23 0.91 1.42 0.34 0.28

2032 1.74 1.28 1.94 1.24 0.91 1.42 0.35 0.28

2033 1.74 1.28 1.94 1.24 0.92 1.43 0.35 0.28

2034 1.75 1.28 1.94 1.25 0.92 1.44 0.35 0.28

2035 1.76 1.28 1.94 1.25 0.93 1.44 0.35 0.28

2036 1.77 1.28 1.94 1.26 0.93 1.45 0.35 0.28

2037 1.78 1.28 1.94 1.27 0.93 1.46 0.36 0.28

2038 1.78 1.28 1.94 1.27 0.94 1.47 0.36 0.29

2039 1.79 1.28 1.94 1.28 0.94 1.47 0.36 0.29

2040 1.80 1.28 1.94 1.29 0.95 1.48 0.36 0.29

2041 1.81 1.28 1.94 1.29 0.95 1.49 0.36 0.29

2042 1.82 1.28 1.94 1.30 0.96 1.50 0.36 0.29

Projected New Housing Construction 

and Mobile Home Placements

New Housing Units (million)

Total Single Family Starts Multi-Family Starts
HI REF LO HI

0.32 0.12 0.12 0.12

0.32 0.13 0.13 0.14

0.32 0.15 0.14 0.15

0.36 0.18 0.18 0.19

0.36 0.21 0.20 0.22

0.36 0.23 0.23 0.25

0.37 0.24 0.23 0.25

0.37 0.24 0.23 0.25

0.36 0.23 0.22 0.24

0.36 0.22 0.21 0.23

0.36 0.22 0.21 0.22

0.35 0.21 0.19 0.21

0.36 0.20 0.18 0.20

0.37 0.19 0.18 0.19

0.38 0.19 0.17 0.18

0.38 0.18 0.17 0.18

0.38 0.18 0.16 0.17

0.39 0.17 0.16 0.17

0.40 0.17 0.15 0.17

0.40 0.16 0.14 0.16

0.41 0.16 0.14 0.16

0.41 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.41 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.41 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.42 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.42 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.42 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.42 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.42 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.43 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.43 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.43 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.43 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.43 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.44 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.44 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.44 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.44 0.15 0.13 0.15

0.45 0.15 0.13 0.15

ulti-Family Starts Manufactured Home Placements
Energy Prices from LCC analysis

Average Marginal

(in 2004 dollars) 2015 2015 Electricity Prices after 2025 extrapolated based on 2015-2025 Growth Rate

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Winter Gas Price ($/MMBtu) $10.32 $9.70 Gas Prices after 2025 extrapolated based on 2010-2025 Growth Rate

Winter Electricity Price ($/kW0.11h) $0.09 Distillate Fuel Prices after 2025 extrapolated based on 2015-2025 Growth Rate Source: AEO 2005 MHR Forecast

Gas Marginal Heat Rate based on Furnace Load Shape

Electric Marginal Heat Rate (furnace fan) based on refrigerator (base) load shape

REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI Elec (Btu/kWh) Scaler Gas NWGF MHGF

1998 2000 11500 3.37 1.07 1.061 1.040

2002 $25.89 $25.89 $25.89 $8.03 $8.03 $8.03 $20.86 $20.86 $20.86 $7.55 $7.55 $7.55 $13.32 $13.32 $13.32 $7.95 $7.95 $7.95 $9.80 $9.80 $9.80 $8.59 $8.59 $8.59 2001 11500 3.37 1.066 1.061 1.040

2003 $26.09 $26.09 $26.09 $9.46 $9.46 $9.46 $21.01 $21.01 $21.01 $8.90 $8.90 $8.90 $14.97 $14.97 $14.97 $9.33 $9.33 $9.33 $11.27 $11.27 $11.27 $9.83 $9.83 $9.83 2002 11500 3.37 1.066 1.061 1.040

2004 $25.86 $25.84 $25.86 $10.20 $10.20 $10.20 $20.83 $20.81 $20.83 $9.60 $9.60 $9.60 $18.04 $18.04 $18.04 $10.19 $10.19 $10.19 $12.89 $12.89 $12.89 $10.82 $10.82 $10.82 2003 11500 3.37 1.066 1.061 1.040

2005 $25.82 $25.45 $26.20 $10.30 $10.26 $10.35 $20.79 $20.49 $21.10 $9.69 $9.65 $9.74 $17.53 $17.53 $17.53 $10.24 $10.20 $10.28 $12.75 $12.72 $12.77 $10.39 $10.39 $10.39 2004 11500 3.37 1.066 1.061 1.040

2006 $25.04 $24.64 $25.41 $9.56 $9.44 $9.67 $20.17 $19.85 $20.47 $8.99 $8.88 $9.10 $15.77 $15.65 $16.08 $9.47 $9.35 $9.59 $11.64 $11.52 $11.82 $9.31 $9.22 $9.48 2005 11500 3.37 1.066 1.061 1.040

2007 $24.09 $23.48 $24.69 $9.01 $8.82 $9.20 $19.40 $18.91 $19.89 $8.47 $8.30 $8.65 $15.13 $14.89 $15.69 $8.94 $8.76 $9.15 $11.07 $10.87 $11.40 $8.91 $8.79 $9.10 2006 11500 3.37 1.068 1.064 1.042

2008 $23.60 $22.89 $24.33 $8.51 $8.29 $8.74 $19.01 $18.44 $19.60 $8.00 $7.80 $8.23 $14.94 $14.65 $15.36 $8.49 $8.28 $8.72 $10.71 $10.47 $11.01 $8.72 $8.52 $8.82 2007 11200 3.28 1.071 1.066 1.044

2009 $23.63 $22.83 $24.52 $8.25 $8.01 $8.51 $19.03 $18.38 $19.75 $7.76 $7.54 $8.00 $14.66 $14.35 $15.19 $8.24 $8.01 $8.50 $10.45 $10.19 $10.81 $8.54 $8.37 $8.69 2008 10000 2.93 1.074 1.069 1.045

2010 $23.57 $22.77 $24.57 $8.00 $7.81 $8.28 $18.98 $18.34 $19.79 $7.53 $7.34 $7.79 $14.63 $14.25 $15.12 $8.02 $7.83 $8.30 $10.30 $10.04 $10.65 $8.51 $8.27 $8.65 2009 9655 2.83 1.077 1.072 1.047

2011 $23.59 $22.68 $24.62 $7.90 $7.69 $8.22 $19.00 $18.27 $19.83 $7.43 $7.23 $7.73 $14.57 $14.33 $15.08 $7.93 $7.73 $8.25 $10.21 $10.00 $10.60 $8.47 $8.30 $8.71 2010 9737 2.85 1.078 1.073 1.048

2012 $23.74 $22.77 $24.96 $7.98 $7.77 $8.33 $19.12 $18.34 $20.10 $7.51 $7.30 $7.84 $14.63 $14.38 $15.07 $8.01 $7.80 $8.35 $10.29 $10.07 $10.66 $8.52 $8.32 $8.76 2011 9737 2.85 1.079 1.073 1.048

2013 $23.93 $22.91 $25.05 $8.11 $7.92 $8.43 $19.28 $18.45 $20.18 $7.63 $7.45 $7.93 $14.73 $14.43 $15.03 $8.12 $7.94 $8.43 $10.40 $10.17 $10.70 $8.60 $8.47 $8.79 2012 9737 2.85 1.079 1.073 1.048

2014 $24.20 $23.14 $25.15 $8.29 $8.07 $8.50 $19.49 $18.63 $20.25 $7.79 $7.59 $8.00 $14.70 $14.35 $15.17 $8.28 $8.07 $8.50 $10.49 $10.23 $10.79 $8.66 $8.51 $8.87 2013 9219 2.70 1.079 1.073 1.048

2015 $24.26 $23.28 $24.99 $8.43 $8.21 $8.43 $19.54 $18.75 $20.13 $7.93 $7.73 $7.93 $14.83 $14.46 $15.43 $8.41 $8.20 $8.45 $10.62 $10.35 $10.85 $8.71 $8.55 $8.95 2014 8750 2.56 1.079 1.073 1.048

2016 $24.22 $23.43 $25.02 $8.41 $8.32 $8.47 $19.50 $18.87 $20.15 $7.91 $7.83 $7.96 $14.99 $14.46 $15.48 $8.41 $8.29 $8.49 $10.67 $10.42 $10.90 $8.76 $8.56 $9.01 2015 8250 2.42 1.079 1.073 1.048

2017 $24.28 $23.57 $25.24 $8.42 $8.43 $8.65 $19.56 $18.99 $20.33 $7.92 $7.93 $8.14 $15.06 $14.55 $15.57 $8.42 $8.39 $8.66 $10.71 $10.51 $11.04 $8.82 $8.60 $9.07 2016 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2018 $24.45 $23.72 $25.59 $8.55 $8.56 $8.93 $19.69 $19.10 $20.61 $8.04 $8.05 $8.40 $15.10 $14.77 $15.79 $8.53 $8.52 $8.91 $10.79 $10.67 $11.28 $8.94 $8.57 $9.18 2017 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2019 $24.67 $23.81 $25.82 $8.74 $8.59 $9.16 $19.87 $19.17 $20.80 $8.22 $8.08 $8.62 $15.27 $14.93 $15.95 $8.71 $8.56 $9.13 $10.97 $10.75 $11.48 $9.02 $8.62 $9.29 2018 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2020 $24.76 $23.70 $25.89 $8.89 $8.53 $9.30 $19.95 $19.09 $20.85 $8.36 $8.02 $8.75 $15.46 $15.00 $16.13 $8.86 $8.51 $9.27 $11.13 $10.75 $11.63 $9.08 $8.66 $9.41 2019 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2021 $24.88 $23.71 $26.04 $9.03 $8.54 $9.47 $20.04 $19.10 $20.97 $8.50 $8.03 $8.91 $15.65 $15.07 $16.30 $9.00 $8.53 $9.43 $11.29 $10.78 $11.79 $9.15 $8.75 $9.48 2020 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2022 $24.83 $23.76 $26.09 $9.10 $8.60 $9.57 $19.99 $19.14 $21.01 $8.56 $8.09 $9.00 $15.75 $15.14 $16.30 $9.06 $8.58 $9.51 $11.37 $10.84 $11.85 $9.21 $8.78 $9.54 2021 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2023 $24.77 $23.79 $25.98 $9.13 $8.68 $9.59 $19.95 $19.16 $20.93 $8.59 $8.16 $9.02 $15.91 $15.24 $16.44 $9.10 $8.66 $9.54 $11.44 $10.92 $11.91 $9.27 $8.85 $9.58 2022 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2024 $24.79 $23.84 $26.03 $9.21 $8.83 $9.68 $19.97 $19.20 $20.96 $8.67 $8.30 $9.10 $16.00 $15.24 $16.54 $9.18 $8.79 $9.62 $11.52 $11.01 $12.00 $9.32 $9.00 $9.64 2023 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2025 $24.88 $23.93 $26.09 $9.31 $8.98 $9.78 $20.04 $19.27 $21.02 $8.75 $8.45 $9.20 $16.06 $15.38 $16.69 $9.27 $8.93 $9.73 $11.60 $11.15 $12.12 $9.36 $9.06 $9.68 2024 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2026 $24.95 $23.99 $26.21 $9.40 $9.06 $9.89 $20.09 $19.33 $21.11 $8.84 $8.53 $9.30 $16.16 $15.46 $16.80 $9.35 $9.01 $9.83 $11.70 $11.23 $12.23 $9.43 $9.11 $9.76 2025 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2027 $25.01 $24.06 $26.32 $9.50 $9.15 $10.00 $20.14 $19.38 $21.20 $8.93 $8.61 $9.41 $16.26 $15.53 $16.91 $9.44 $9.09 $9.93 $11.79 $11.31 $12.33 $9.49 $9.16 $9.84 2026 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2028 $25.07 $24.13 $26.43 $9.59 $9.24 $10.11 $20.19 $19.43 $21.29 $9.02 $8.69 $9.51 $16.36 $15.61 $17.02 $9.54 $9.17 $10.04 $11.89 $11.39 $12.44 $9.56 $9.21 $9.92 2027 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2029 $25.14 $24.19 $26.55 $9.69 $9.32 $10.23 $20.25 $19.49 $21.38 $9.11 $8.77 $9.62 $16.47 $15.69 $17.13 $9.63 $9.25 $10.15 $11.98 $11.47 $12.55 $9.63 $9.27 $9.99 2028 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2030 $25.20 $24.26 $26.66 $9.79 $9.41 $10.34 $20.30 $19.54 $21.47 $9.21 $8.85 $9.73 $16.57 $15.77 $17.25 $9.72 $9.33 $10.25 $12.08 $11.55 $12.66 $9.70 $9.32 $10.07 2029 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2031 $25.26 $24.33 $26.78 $9.89 $9.50 $10.46 $20.35 $19.59 $21.57 $9.30 $8.93 $9.84 $16.67 $15.85 $17.36 $9.82 $9.42 $10.36 $12.17 $11.63 $12.77 $9.77 $9.38 $10.15 2030 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2032 $25.33 $24.39 $26.89 $9.99 $9.59 $10.57 $20.40 $19.65 $21.66 $9.39 $9.02 $9.95 $16.78 $15.93 $17.47 $9.91 $9.50 $10.47 $12.27 $11.71 $12.88 $9.84 $9.43 $10.23 2031 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2033 $25.39 $24.46 $27.01 $10.09 $9.68 $10.69 $20.45 $19.70 $21.75 $9.49 $9.10 $10.06 $16.88 $16.01 $17.59 $10.01 $9.58 $10.58 $12.37 $11.80 $12.99 $9.91 $9.48 $10.31 2032 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2034 $25.46 $24.53 $27.13 $10.19 $9.77 $10.81 $20.50 $19.75 $21.85 $9.58 $9.19 $10.17 $16.99 $16.09 $17.71 $10.10 $9.67 $10.70 $12.47 $11.88 $13.11 $9.98 $9.54 $10.40 2033 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2035 $25.52 $24.59 $27.24 $10.29 $9.86 $10.93 $20.56 $19.81 $21.94 $9.68 $9.27 $10.28 $17.09 $16.18 $17.82 $10.20 $9.76 $10.81 $12.57 $11.96 $13.22 $10.05 $9.59 $10.48 2034 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2036 $25.59 $24.66 $27.36 $10.40 $9.95 $11.05 $20.61 $19.86 $22.04 $9.78 $9.36 $10.40 $17.20 $16.26 $17.94 $10.30 $9.84 $10.92 $12.67 $12.05 $13.34 $10.12 $9.65 $10.56 2035 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2037 $25.65 $24.73 $27.48 $10.50 $10.04 $11.18 $20.66 $19.92 $22.13 $9.88 $9.45 $10.51 $17.30 $16.34 $18.06 $10.40 $9.93 $11.04 $12.77 $12.14 $13.46 $10.20 $9.71 $10.64 2036 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2038 $25.72 $24.80 $27.60 $10.61 $10.14 $11.30 $20.71 $19.97 $22.23 $9.98 $9.53 $10.63 $17.41 $16.42 $18.18 $10.50 $10.02 $11.16 $12.88 $12.22 $13.57 $10.27 $9.76 $10.73 2037 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2039 $25.78 $24.87 $27.72 $10.72 $10.23 $11.43 $20.76 $20.03 $22.33 $10.08 $9.62 $10.75 $17.52 $16.51 $18.30 $10.60 $10.11 $11.28 $12.98 $12.31 $13.69 $10.34 $9.82 $10.81 2038 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2040 $25.85 $24.94 $27.84 $10.83 $10.33 $11.55 $20.82 $20.08 $22.42 $10.18 $9.71 $10.87 $17.63 $16.59 $18.42 $10.70 $10.20 $11.40 $13.09 $12.40 $13.81 $10.42 $9.87 $10.90 2039 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2041 $25.91 $25.00 $27.96 $10.93 $10.42 $11.68 $20.87 $20.14 $22.52 $10.28 $9.81 $10.99 $17.74 $16.67 $18.54 $10.81 $10.29 $11.52 $13.19 $12.48 $13.93 $10.49 $9.93 $10.99 2040 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2042 $25.98 $25.07 $28.08 $11.05 $10.52 $11.81 $20.92 $20.19 $22.62 $10.39 $9.90 $11.11 $17.85 $16.76 $18.66 $10.91 $10.38 $11.64 $13.30 $12.57 $14.06 $10.57 $9.99 $11.07 2041 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2043 $26.04 $25.14 $28.20 $11.16 $10.62 $11.95 $20.98 $20.25 $22.71 $10.49 $9.99 $11.24 $17.96 $16.84 $18.79 $11.02 $10.47 $11.76 $13.41 $12.66 $14.18 $10.64 $10.05 $11.16 2042 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2044 $26.11 $25.21 $28.32 $11.27 $10.72 $12.08 $21.03 $20.31 $22.81 $10.60 $10.08 $11.36 $18.07 $16.93 $18.91 $11.12 $10.56 $11.89 $13.52 $12.75 $14.31 $10.72 $10.11 $11.25 2043 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2045 $26.18 $25.28 $28.45 $11.38 $10.82 $12.21 $21.08 $20.36 $22.91 $10.71 $10.18 $11.49 $18.19 $17.02 $19.03 $11.23 $10.66 $12.02 $13.62 $12.84 $14.43 $10.80 $10.16 $11.34 2044 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2046 $26.24 $25.35 $28.57 $11.50 $10.92 $12.35 $21.14 $20.42 $23.01 $10.82 $10.27 $11.62 $18.30 $17.10 $19.16 $11.34 $10.75 $12.14 $13.73 $12.94 $14.56 $10.87 $10.22 $11.43 2045 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2047 $26.31 $25.42 $28.69 $11.62 $11.02 $12.49 $21.19 $20.47 $23.11 $10.93 $10.37 $11.75 $18.41 $17.19 $19.29 $11.45 $10.85 $12.27 $13.85 $13.03 $14.69 $10.95 $10.28 $11.52 2046 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2048 $26.38 $25.49 $28.82 $11.73 $11.13 $12.63 $21.24 $20.53 $23.21 $11.04 $10.47 $11.88 $18.53 $17.28 $19.41 $11.56 $10.94 $12.40 $13.96 $13.12 $14.82 $11.03 $10.34 $11.61 2047 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2049 $26.44 $25.56 $28.94 $11.85 $11.23 $12.77 $21.30 $20.59 $23.31 $11.15 $10.56 $12.01 $18.64 $17.36 $19.54 $11.67 $11.04 $12.54 $14.07 $13.22 $14.95 $11.11 $10.40 $11.70 2048 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2050 $26.51 $25.63 $29.07 $11.97 $11.34 $12.91 $21.35 $20.64 $23.41 $11.26 $10.66 $12.14 $18.76 $17.45 $19.67 $11.79 $11.14 $12.67 $14.19 $13.31 $15.08 $11.19 $10.46 $11.79 2049 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2051 $26.58 $25.70 $29.19 $12.09 $11.44 $13.05 $21.41 $20.70 $23.51 $11.38 $10.76 $12.28 $18.88 $17.54 $19.80 $11.90 $11.24 $12.80 $14.30 $13.41 $15.21 $11.27 $10.52 $11.89 2050 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2052 $26.64 $25.77 $29.32 $12.22 $11.55 $13.20 $21.46 $20.76 $23.61 $11.49 $10.86 $12.41 $18.99 $17.63 $19.93 $12.02 $11.34 $12.94 $14.42 $13.50 $15.35 $11.35 $10.58 $11.98 2051 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2053 $26.71 $25.84 $29.45 $12.34 $11.66 $13.35 $21.51 $20.81 $23.72 $11.61 $10.97 $12.55 $19.11 $17.72 $20.06 $12.13 $11.44 $13.08 $14.53 $13.60 $15.48 $11.43 $10.64 $12.08 2052 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2054 $26.78 $25.91 $29.57 $12.47 $11.77 $13.50 $21.57 $20.87 $23.82 $11.72 $11.07 $12.69 $19.23 $17.81 $20.20 $12.25 $11.54 $13.22 $14.65 $13.70 $15.62 $11.51 $10.71 $12.17 2053 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

Marginal Site to Source Conversion Factor

Average Energy Prices Marginal Energy Prices

Gas Price ($2004 / MMBtu)

Average Energy Prices

Electricity Price $2004 / MMBTU

MHGF Average Energy Prices

NG/LPG Price ($2004/MBTU) Fuel Oil Price ($2004 / MMBTU)

Projected Energy Prices and Heat Rates

Electricity Price ($2004 / MMBTU) Gas Price ($2004 / MMBtu)

NWGF

LPG Price ($2004/MBTU) NG/LPG Price ($2004/MBTU)

Weighted NG + LPG

2054 $26.78 $25.91 $29.57 $12.47 $11.77 $13.50 $21.57 $20.87 $23.82 $11.72 $11.07 $12.69 $19.23 $17.81 $20.20 $12.25 $11.54 $13.22 $14.65 $13.70 $15.62 $11.51 $10.71 $12.17 2053 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2055 $26.85 $25.98 $29.70 $12.59 $11.88 $13.65 $21.62 $20.93 $23.92 $11.84 $11.17 $12.83 $19.35 $17.90 $20.33 $12.37 $11.64 $13.36 $14.77 $13.80 $15.76 $11.60 $10.77 $12.27 2054 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2056 $26.92 $26.06 $29.83 $12.72 $11.99 $13.80 $21.68 $20.99 $24.03 $11.96 $11.28 $12.98 $19.47 $17.99 $20.46 $12.49 $11.75 $13.50 $14.89 $13.90 $15.90 $11.68 $10.83 $12.36 2055 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2057 $26.98 $26.13 $29.96 $12.85 $12.10 $13.95 $21.73 $21.04 $24.13 $12.08 $11.38 $13.12 $19.59 $18.08 $20.60 $12.61 $11.85 $13.65 $15.01 $14.00 $16.04 $11.76 $10.89 $12.46 2056 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2058 $27.05 $26.20 $30.09 $12.98 $12.21 $14.11 $21.79 $21.10 $24.23 $12.21 $11.49 $13.27 $19.72 $18.17 $20.74 $12.73 $11.96 $13.79 $15.14 $14.10 $16.18 $11.85 $10.96 $12.56 2057 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2059 $27.12 $26.27 $30.22 $13.11 $12.33 $14.26 $21.84 $21.16 $24.34 $12.33 $11.60 $13.42 $19.84 $18.27 $20.87 $12.86 $12.06 $13.94 $15.26 $14.20 $16.32 $11.93 $11.02 $12.66 2058 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2060 $27.19 $26.34 $30.35 $13.24 $12.44 $14.42 $21.90 $21.22 $24.45 $12.46 $11.70 $13.57 $19.96 $18.36 $21.01 $12.98 $12.17 $14.09 $15.38 $14.30 $16.47 $12.02 $11.08 $12.76 2059 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2061 $27.26 $26.42 $30.48 $13.38 $12.56 $14.58 $21.95 $21.28 $24.55 $12.58 $11.81 $13.72 $20.09 $18.45 $21.15 $13.11 $12.28 $14.24 $15.51 $14.40 $16.62 $12.10 $11.15 $12.86 2060 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2062 $27.33 $26.49 $30.61 $13.51 $12.68 $14.75 $22.01 $21.33 $24.66 $12.71 $11.93 $13.87 $20.21 $18.55 $21.29 $13.23 $12.39 $14.39 $15.63 $14.51 $16.76 $12.19 $11.21 $12.96 2061 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2063 $27.40 $26.56 $30.75 $13.65 $12.80 $14.91 $22.07 $21.39 $24.76 $12.84 $12.04 $14.03 $20.34 $18.64 $21.43 $13.36 $12.50 $14.54 $15.76 $14.61 $16.91 $12.28 $11.28 $13.07 2062 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2064 $27.47 $26.64 $30.88 $13.79 $12.92 $15.08 $22.12 $21.45 $24.87 $12.97 $12.15 $14.18 $20.46 $18.73 $21.57 $13.49 $12.61 $14.70 $15.89 $14.72 $17.06 $12.37 $11.34 $13.17 2063 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2065 $27.54 $26.71 $31.01 $13.93 $13.04 $15.25 $22.18 $21.51 $24.98 $13.10 $12.26 $14.34 $20.59 $18.83 $21.71 $13.62 $12.72 $14.86 $16.02 $14.82 $17.22 $12.46 $11.41 $13.27 2064 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2066 $27.61 $26.78 $31.15 $14.07 $13.16 $15.42 $22.23 $21.57 $25.09 $13.23 $12.38 $14.50 $20.72 $18.93 $21.86 $13.76 $12.84 $15.02 $16.15 $14.93 $17.37 $12.54 $11.47 $13.38 2065 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2067 $27.68 $26.86 $31.28 $14.21 $13.28 $15.59 $22.29 $21.63 $25.20 $13.37 $12.49 $14.66 $20.85 $19.02 $22.00 $13.89 $12.95 $15.18 $16.28 $15.04 $17.52 $12.63 $11.54 $13.48 2066 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2068 $27.75 $26.93 $31.42 $14.35 $13.41 $15.76 $22.35 $21.69 $25.30 $13.50 $12.61 $14.83 $20.98 $19.12 $22.15 $14.02 $13.07 $15.34 $16.42 $15.15 $17.68 $12.72 $11.61 $13.59 2067 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2069 $27.82 $27.00 $31.55 $14.50 $13.53 $15.94 $22.40 $21.75 $25.41 $13.64 $12.73 $14.99 $21.11 $19.22 $22.29 $14.16 $13.18 $15.50 $16.55 $15.26 $17.84 $12.82 $11.67 $13.70 2068 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2070 $27.89 $27.08 $31.69 $14.65 $13.66 $16.12 $22.46 $21.81 $25.52 $13.78 $12.85 $15.16 $21.24 $19.31 $22.44 $14.30 $13.30 $15.67 $16.69 $15.37 $18.00 $12.91 $11.74 $13.81 2069 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2071 $27.96 $27.15 $31.83 $14.79 $13.79 $16.30 $22.52 $21.87 $25.63 $13.92 $12.97 $15.33 $21.37 $19.41 $22.59 $14.44 $13.42 $15.84 $16.82 $15.48 $18.16 $13.00 $11.81 $13.92 2070 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048

2072 $28.03 $27.23 $31.97 $14.94 $13.92 $16.48 $22.57 $21.93 $25.75 $14.06 $13.09 $15.50 $21.51 $19.51 $22.74 $14.58 $13.54 $16.00 $16.96 $15.59 $18.32 $13.09 $11.88 $14.03 2071 7720 2.26 1.079 1.073 1.048
Heating Load of Houses Shifted Away from Gas due to Standards

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Source: RECS 2001

Sum of SumOfFinalWeight HEAT MainHeatingFuel

Central warm-air furnace with ducts Heat pump Grand Total Bin 

HeatingUECBIN Electricity Natural gas from underground pipes Electricity

0 1205340 154207 731303 2651238 0

5 2004288 439289 1386645 1885364 5

10 1474755 837971 865918 2134552 10

15 1095488 868476 814656 1875201 15

20 1126133 1029352 1040278 1270524 20

25 513560 1238769 715738 1069373 25

30 324316 905269 489813 626670 30

35 482326 1050128 661477 716626 35

40 240218 844153 285358 566409 40

45 118103 1130203 196577 648259 45

50 141774 909458 82421 420972 50

55 121798 459186 108534 505050 55

60 82931 520902 161320 483918 60

65 473930 26998 515889 65

70 31627 483103 60460 421697 70

75 170588 411196 75

80 13499 392936 24886 352029 80

85 23803 141581 41802 92482 85

90 70609 77422

95 137329 115366

100 20597 54574 17051 49587

105 36109 14906 70237

110 45058 34932

3.50

4.00

Heating Load 

110 45058 34932

115 24755 34642 23298 23199

120 22315 288506

125 22315 13499 212794

135 16795 29810 22824

140 19741 31275 29682

180 11469 26188

165 13837 40003

185 17051 19463

150 16795 28455

160 31275 17611

170 21033 23094

195 29879 9404

220 22315 17736216

Grand Total 9095940 12653288 7792748 35472432

Mobile Home Gas Furnaces Average Electricity Space Heating Consumption

Electric FurnaceHeat Pump Total

Average AFUE 2000 79.75

kBtu / Year

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0.0

Millions
Average Household Load (MMBtu)49.82 MH 17886 15242 16793

SF Detached 15288 15453 15356

Elec Furn Consumption at Crossover 33.3 SF Attached 10375 8602 9642

2-4 Units 11177 12346 11660

Gas Consumption at Crossover 41.8 5+ Units 3430 3477 3449

Average Electricity11483 Space Heating Consumption 12557 11927
Baseline 

Gas 

AFUE

Base Elec 

Eff

0.8 1.54

Gas UEC Electric Gas Load Electric Gas Load Electric Midpoint

Millions Millions 29.65 27.48 28.6

0.15 1.94 0.0 0.0

0.44 3.39 4.0 7.7 Gas Electric

0.84 2.34 8.0 15.4 MMBtu kWh

0.87 1.91 12.0 23.1 35.70 5440.2

1.03 2.17 16.0 30.8

1.24 1.23 20.0 38.5 Equipment Costs Related to Shift From Gas to Electric

0.91 0.81 24.0 46.2 Gas Central Air Electric Heat 

1.05 1.14 28.0 53.9 $2,250 $2,236 $600 $3,668

0.84 0.53 32.0 61.6

1.13 0.31 36.0 69.2

0.91 0.22 40.0 76.9 $3,668

0.46 0.23 44.0 84.6

0.52 0.24 48.0 92.3

0.47 0.03 52.0 100.0

0.48 0.09 56.0 107.7

0.17 0.00 60.0 115.4

0.39 0.04 64.0 123.1

0.14 0.07 68.0 130.8

$3,284

Reduction for using Electric rather than Gas Package

$1,202

Weighted Average Load (MMBtu)

$4,486

$2,836

Weighted Average Electric System Cost

Weighted Average UEC

Heating Load - Southern Homes -RECS 2001

Gas

Average 28.6

ting Consumption Equipment Costs Related to Shift From Gas to Electric

Gas Central Electric Heat Pump

$841 $1,789 $480 $2,934

50.0 100.0 MMBtu

Gas

Electric Average 28.6
$2,934

$86

Incremental Cost of Electric vs. Gas Heating

$2,630

$2,269

Weighted Average Electric System 

$2,544
m Gas to Electric
Year Elec Gas Elec Gas Elec Gas Elec Gas

1960 29.9 17.6

1961 29.9 17.9

1962 29.9 17.9

1963 29.9 17.9

1964 29.8 17.9

1965 29.7 18

1966 29.7 18.1

1967 29.9 18.1

1968 30.2 18.2

1969 30.8 18.6

1970 31.8 19.6

1971 33.9 21

1972 35.6 22.1

1973 37.4 23.1

1974 44.1 26

1975 50 31.1

1976 53.1 36.3

1977 56.6 43.2

1978 60.9 47.5 61.4 53.1 65 47.2 59.2 50.3

1979 65.6 55.1 67.4 59.5 69.9 55.4 64.2 56.4

1980 75.8 65.7 77.4 68.8 76.9 64.2 73.1 64.1

1981 87.2 74.9 90.9 77.7 84.7 74.3 86.1 74.9

1982 95.8 89.8 96.3 91.6 93.4 88.3 95.4 91.3

1983 98.9 104.7 98.2 104.8 100 106.1 99.6 103.6

Fuel Price Indices

NATIONAL NORTHEAST MIDWEST SOUTH

1983 98.9 104.7 98.2 104.8 100 106.1 99.6 103.6

1984 105.3 105.5 105.5 103.7 106.7 105.6 105 105

1985 108.9 104.8 107.2 104.1 111.9 105.7 107.5 102.5

1986 110.4 99.7 107.6 100.6 116.7 98.7 108 98.8

1987 110 95.1 106.7 92.9 116.9 93 106.6 97

1988 111.5 94.5 106.7 90.2 116.7 92.5 108.5 98.6

1989 114.7 97.1 111.7 95.8 117.7 93.9 110.5 101.3

1990 117.4 97.3 117.6 97.3 116.9 91.6 112.7 103.5

1991 121.8 98.5 123.1 98.4 119.6 92.2 115.8 103.5

1992 124.2 100.3 127 101.9 120.3 95.7 118.1 104

1993 126.7 106.5 131.5 105.7 120.8 103.5 120.2 112.5

1994 126.7 108.5 132.5 114 118.5 101.6 120.1 113.2

1995 129.6 102.9 135.7 109.9 125 92.1 120.7 107.2

1996 131.8 107.2 137.9 113.8 126.4 101.9 125 114.4

1997 132.5 114.6 138.3 122.8 127.2 106.7 125.9 121.5

1998 127.4 112.4 134.9 121.6 126.5 102.8 116.7 117.8

1999 126.5 113 132.4 120.7 124.7 104.5 116.6 118.6

2000 128.5 132 133.9 130.3 125 127.7 119.4 139.8

2001 137.8 158.3 138.7 160.8 126 148.5 128.4 168.2

2002 136.2 135.3 132.4 143.5 125.6 126.9 122.1 141.9

2003 139.5 166.3 137.2 173.3 127.3 163.4 128.3 178

2004 142.1 180.1 140.8 185.4 129.5 180 133.6 187.9

Elec Gas Elec Gas Elec Gas Elec Gas Year

190.8 112.3 190.8 112.3 190.8 112.3 1952

188.9 113.1 188.9 113.1 188.9 113.1 1953

187.0 112.0 187.0 112.0 187.0 112.0 1954

184.6 110.5 184.6 110.5 184.6 110.5 1955

181.6 109.1 181.6 109.1 181.6 109.1 1956

178.1 107.9 178.1 107.9 178.1 107.9 1957

173.2 105.5 173.2 105.5 173.2 105.5 1958

169.1 102.4 169.1 102.4 169.1 102.4 1959

163.9 98.8 163.9 98.8 163.9 98.8 1960

158.5 95.7 158.5 95.7 158.5 95.7 1961

154.8 95.4 154.8 95.4 154.8 95.4 1962

158.1 97.9 158.1 97.9 158.1 97.9 1963

160.9 99.9 160.9 99.9 160.9 99.9 1964

159.1 98.3 159.1 98.3 159.1 98.3 1965

169.0 99.6 169.0 99.6 169.0 99.6 1966

175.6 109.2 175.6 109.2 175.6 109.2 1967

176.3 120.5 176.3 120.5 176.3 120.5 1968

176.4 134.7 176.4 134.7 176.4 134.7 1969

56.6 37.2 176.4 137.6 160.8 136.6 165.7 124.5 1970

58.4 47.2 170.7 143.4 156.6 137.6 159.1 131.8 1971

77.2 66.4 173.8 150.6 157.1 137.8 165.9 142.9 1972

87.3 72.4 181.2 155.7 167.7 145.9 170.7 145.7 1973

99.8 88.6 187.5 175.8 175.1 167.6 177.1 164.3 1974

97.1 103 187.6 198.6 177.1 184.2 175.0 186.0 1975

National $2001

CPI - ALL ITEMS

Bureau of Labor 

Statistics

Fuel Price Indices

WEST South $2001 Non-South $2001

97.1 103 187.6 198.6 177.1 184.2 175.0 186.0 1975

103.1 108.4 191.4 191.8 179.0 179.0 179.1 180.5 1976

109.9 106.1 191.2 184.0 176.9 168.7 180.5 173.3 1977

110 101.2 190.3 171.8 174.5 159.6 180.1 161.9 1978

112.2 100.7 182.9 158.1 166.2 151.2 174.5 148.9 1979

117.3 101 178.0 150.9 162.4 147.6 170.0 141.6 1980

123.4 102 174.7 147.9 157.8 144.7 168.0 138.9 1981

127.8 102.6 169.7 140.6 152.7 140.2 163.6 131.7 1982

136.1 108.1 168.9 136.6 150.6 134.6 164.2 129.5 1983

139.2 104.8 167.2 135.0 149.1 131.3 162.6 127.2 1984

142.2 108.1 165.6 139.2 147.3 137.9 161.2 129.6 1985

144.5 111 161.5 138.3 143.5 135.3 157.5 130.1 1986

147.3 112.9 160.6 127.5 140.3 124.6 158.0 122.0 1987

145.5 102 158.7 129.1 141.1 129.1 154.2 119.5 1988

145.8 113.5 155.9 134.9 138.9 134.1 151.3 126.2 1989

141.6 114.4 147.6 130.3 126.8 128.0 146.0 122.7 1990

142 114.5 143.4 128.1 123.9 126.1 141.4 120.4 1991

144.7 136.9 141.0 144.8 122.8 143.8 138.4 135.4 1992

170.7 166.8 147.0 168.8 128.4 168.2 145.1 158.7 1993

186.3 137.3 143.0 142.1 120.2 139.7 145.8 133.8 1994

181.3 157.1 143.2 170.7 123.5 171.3 143.0 158.4 1995

174.8 172 142.1 180.1 125.3 176.2 139.1 167.9 1996

1997
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004
Central Air 

Conditioning 

Index Year Sears 

$2001

Sears 

Index Index Inflation adjusted Index

26.5 1965 39

26.7 1966 39.6

26.9 1967 2826.3 1.00 1.00 39.8

26.8 1968 2036.4 41.5

27.2 1969 2350.0 42.4

28.1 1970 2182.6 45

28.9 1971 2799.7 46.3

29.1 1972 2383.2 0.86 0.86 46.6

29.6 1973 2599.9 46.9

29.9 1974 2200.0 50.9

30.2 1975 2264.4 56.6

30.6 1976 2187.5 0.78 0.78 59.7

31 1977 2201.0 62.9

31.5 1978 2214.1 75.20 234.4 66.8

32.4 1979 2160.0 0.76 81.00 234.7 0.76 73.8

33.4 1980 2363.7 0.84 88.40 230.0 0.75 83

34.8 1981 2368.9 0.84 93.60 214.6 0.70 92.6

36.7 1982 2314.9 0.82 98.00 203.7 0.66 100

38.8 1983 2251.4 0.80 102.00 199.7 0.65 102.9

40.5 1984 2537.3 0.90 103.00 195.3 0.64 107.3

41.8 1985 2258.5 0.80 104.40 189.8 0.62 110.6

44.4 1986 2533.0 0.90 105.00 184.3 0.60 112

49.3 1987 2002.0 0.71 104.40 179.9 0.59 112.7

53.8 1988 1948.6 0.69 107.70 179.1 0.58 116.4

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Price index- Unitary Air 

Conditioning GAS-FIRED FORCED-AIR FU

Central Air Conditioning - Retail 

Prices CPI - ALL ITEMS

Bureau of Labor 

Statistics R. Newell, Sears Catalog Data

53.8 1988 1948.6 0.69 107.70 179.1 0.58 116.4

56.9 1989 111.30 177.7 0.58 121

60.6 1990 114.80 174.9 0.57 131.6

65.2 1991 115.20 166.5 0.54 133.4

72.6 1992 113.60 157.6 0.51 136.4

82.4 1993 113.00 152.1 0.50 138.2

90.9 1994 113.30 148.1 0.48 138.2

96.5 1995 116.50 148.5 0.48 141.1

99.6 1996 119.60 148.2 0.48 142.2

103.9 1997 120.70 145.3 0.47

107.6 1998 123.80 145.7 0.47

109.6 1999 126.70 146.8 0.48

113.6 2000 123.70 140.3 0.46

118.3 2001 123.70 135.7 0.44

124

130.7

136.2

140.3

144.5

148.2

152.4

156.9

160.5
163

166.6

172.2

177.1

179.9

184

188.9
South non-South Mobile 

Home

Inflation 

adjusted

Relative to 

1967 Gas Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat

233.9 1.04

230.9 1.03

225.1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

225.3 1.00

218.2 0.97

219.1 0.97

216.0 0.96

210.6 0.94 0.94 0.89 0.90 0.90

199.5 0.89

195.0 0.87

198.7 0.88

198.2 0.88 0.87 0.82 0.41 0.44

196.1 0.87

193.5 0.86

192.0 0.85 0.85 0.80 0.81 0.81

190.3 0.85 0.85 0.79 0.79 0.80

192.4 0.85 0.85 0.76 0.77 0.78

195.8 0.87 0.87 0.74 0.76 0.77

195.2 0.87 0.87 0.73 0.75 0.76

195.1 0.87 0.87 0.73 0.74 0.75

194.2 0.86 0.86 0.71 0.73 0.74

193.0 0.86 0.86 0.70 0.72 0.73

187.4 0.83 0.83 0.68 0.70 0.71

185.9 0.83 0.83 0.68 0.70 0.71

Equipment Price Ratio by Housing Sector

GAS-FIRED FORCED-AIR FURNACES

185.9 0.83 0.83 0.68 0.70 0.71

184.3 0.82 0.82 0.67 0.69 0.70

190.2 0.84 0.84 0.68 0.70 0.71

185.0 0.82 0.82 0.65 0.67 0.68

183.6 0.82 0.82 0.63 0.65 0.67

180.7 0.80 0.80 0.62 0.64 0.65

176.2 0.78 0.78 0.60 0.62 0.64

174.9 0.78 0.78 0.60 0.62 0.63

171.2 0.76 0.76 0.59 0.61 0.62
2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Millio

n

s

Gas Furnace Shipments Components

New Housing Installations

Central Heating Upgrades

Efficiency Upgrades

Oil / Electric Conversions

Modeled Replacements

GAMA Data

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fraction Gas vs. Electric for New Households with Central Heating

Historical

Base Case Projection

Design Option One

Design Option Two

Design Option Three

0%

10%

20%

30%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Design Option Four
-$0.10

-$0.08

-$0.06

-$0.04

-$0.02

$0.00

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065

Billions of 2

0

01 D

ollars

Financial Impacts of Design Option 1

Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost

Net Savings

Financial Impacts of Design Option 3

-$4.0

-$3.0

-$2.0

-$1.0

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065

Billions of 2

0

01 D

ollars

Financial Impacts of Design Option 3

Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost

Net Savings
Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost

Net Savings

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065

Financial Impacts of Design Option 4

-$0.5

-$0.4

-$0.3

-$0.2

-$0.1

$0.0

$0.1

$0.2

$0.3

$0.4

$0.5

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065

Billions of 2

0

01 D

ollars

Financial Impacts of Design Option 2

-$10.0

-$8.0

-$6.0

-$4.0

-$2.0

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065

Billions of 2

0

01 D

ollars

Financial Impacts of Design Option 4

Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost
Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost

Net Savings

Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost

Net Savings