EE-RM/STD-98-440 // .. EE-tM/57D 7 - _-o

I l: A._ _ I S S | A.1 _ I f, I A

luet Naiuna l Employment Impacts:

Central Air Conditioners

and Heat Pumps

Jim McMahon

JEMcMahon@lbl .gov

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

U.S. Department of Energy

Workshop on Standards for

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

December 9, 1999 k ' ~~~~~

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14II

• 

... . .- EE-RM/STD-98-440 / l./ ';:I:X , 

"'I.-.&. "1_.£.: ___ • .... _____ • _________ .L 1 _____ - _L __ 

."e-[ I"ClliOnal E:mployment Impacts: 

Central Air Conditioners 

and Heat Pumps 

--,--- -_.,._-'" .------ '-'-- --~--

Jim McMahon 

JEMcMahon@lbl.gov 

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

U.S. Department of Energy 

Workshop on Standards for 

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

December 9, 1999 

m 

r;n 

:u 

~ a 

I 
EE-RM/STD-98-440

Net National Employment Impacts:

Vnefinitinn

A__ __ _ __; _ _ _ __ ___ *m___ _= _; ___ rrrrrrq 

Possible standards could affect consumer

spending in two ways:

- increase purchase price of regulated products

- decrease consumer energy expenditures

* Direct employment impacts will be analyzed in

detail in the manufacturer impact analysis

* Net national employment impacts are net jobs

created or eliminated in the U.S. economy as a

consequence of new energy efficiency standards

---- C__ entral A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts ----

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14II t· , 

.. EE-RM/STD-98-440 . I L/ J j 

Net National Employment Impacts: n~finitinn __ ~ • •• • .... "IIIIIr. • 

. - -.-.. _ .. ----.- ----:"'-~'--- -_._- -~.......::..---.-

~~ -------.~- ~ 

• Possible standards could affect consumer 

spending in two ways: 

- increase purchase price of regulated products 

- decrease consumer energy expenditures 

- . 

• Direct employment impacts will be analyzed in 

detail in the manufacturer impact analysis 

• Net national employment impacts are net jobs 

created or eliminated in the U.S. economy as a 

consequence of new energy efficiency standards 

,. __ .. __ ,~=~="c -c,,~=c_._ ·-_~·c~c-" =c. Central AlC and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts ..... -...... 2 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 I

Background and approach I = __: _____. _ _. _ : _, .: ____

Residential total energy expenditures in 1995

were: $129 billion (EIASEPER)

- electricity $87 billion natural gas $29 billion

- distillate $ 6 billion LPG $ 4 billion

New energy efficiency standards are expected to

reduce energy expenditures, usually offsetting

projected increases in equipment prices over

time.

An input/output model estimates the effects on

various sectors of the economy from the changes

in consumer spending.

____-- -. ___.- = ... Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts --

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14II , . EE-RM/STD-98-440 I '-I II 

_________ ~~c ~~g r~~~~ a~=_~~; ~p pr?~_c:~_~ :~:'?-I~ IjNJ sa aImi1"'-

• Residential total energy expenditures in 1995 

were: $129 billion (EIA SEPER) 

- electricity $87 billion 

- distillate $ 6 billion 

natural gas $29 billion 

LPG $ 4 billion 

• New energy efficiency standards are expected to 

reduce energy expenditures, usually offsetting 

projected increases in equipment prices over 

time. 

• An input/output model estimates the effects on -

various sectors of the economy from the changes 

in consumer spending. 

=---,-"---------~-.- -- --- - -.,- -=-~-~---- -."'~ Central Ale and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts -=-- .. -· .... -=--~-3= 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 I -

MODEL: IMBUILD _A

......- _._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Irrr i

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

developed spreadsheet model for DOE in 1998

Characterized U.S. economy as interconnections

among 35 sectors (national input/output

structural matrices)

INPUT: shifts in expenditures due to standards

(equipment and energy expenditures from

National Energy Savings analysis)

OUTPUT: change in employment by sector as a

consequence of new standards

- ------ = -.......- -- --Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts -

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14II .. 

... EE_RM/STO-98-440 I '-I 11· 

MODEL: IMBUIL.D 

• Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) 

developed spreadsheet model for DOE in 1998 

• Characterized U.S. economy as interconnections 

among 35 sectors (national input/output 

structural matrices) 

• INPUT: shifts in expenditures due to standards 

(equipment and energy expenditures from 

National Energy Savings analysis) 

• OUTPUT: change in employment by sector as a 

consequence of new standards 

- .. -.. ~-~ Central AlC and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts =- ..... - .-.' 

4 
EE-RM/STD-98-4401 q II

Pnssible employment impacts A

w;·I '''' w * ~ -rrrrrrr]

Employment by manufacturers of regulated

equipment, and their suppliers, may change

Reduced spending for energy and water may

cause reductions in employment in the energy

and water supply sectors

Shifting spending away from energy toward other

sectors may create jobs in other sectors

Net job creation or elimination will be estimated

------ Central A/C and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts - .--

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14II .. . 

, ,. 

EE-RM/STO-98-440( Y II 

Pn~~ibl.e. emolovment imD3cts - ~ ~ ~ - .,.... - ~ ~ - - - 1"'"-"'" - ............ wi - - - - - - - - -- - - 1- -- - --- .r:--"---- --_. - ~ --

~ ---.---- -- -_._--_. 

• Employment by manufacturers of regulated 

equipment, and their suppliers, may change 

• Reduced spending for energy and water may 

cause reductions in employment in the energy 

and water supply sectors 

• Shifting spending away from energy toward other 

sectors may create jobs in other sectors 

• Net job creation or elimination will be estimated 

-=-=-~---.~~~- ~-.-'c=-~. -. Central AlC and Heat Pump Net Nat'l Employment Impacts--- S