Sensitivity of Ballast LCC and Prback

Analysis to Four "Key ,'71

James E. McMahon

Technology and Market Assessment Group

Energy Analysis Program

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Sensitivity of Ballast LCC and Paybac 

Analysis to F our Key Inputs 

James E. McMahon. 

, Technology and Market Assessment Group 

, Energy Analysis Program . 

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

1 
Input Parameters of LCC Analysis

2F40T 12/ES Lamp/Ballasts

Changed:

Input Parameter Previous Val ue Current Valw-,

(July 26,1996) (March 18,1997)

Lifetime of ballast (hours) 33,000 45,000

Relamp life (hours), design option 1 (CC) 19,000 16,150

Labor rate (s), electrician $42.10 $50.00

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Input Parameters of LCC Analysis 

2F 40T 12IES LamplBallasts 

Changed: 

Input Parameter 

Lifetime of ballast (hours) 

Relamp life (hours), design option 1 (CC) 

Labor rate ($), electrician 

Previous Value 

(July 26,1996) 

33,000 

19,000 

$42.10 

Current Value 

(March 18,1997) 

45,000 

16,150 

$50.00 

2 
KeF,

Variable

Electricity price weighted

by sales volume ($/kWh)

A relative frequency table

(IA 1995, 1996)

Inputs for Four Foot Lamp/Ballast System:

Annual operating hours An empirical probability density

(hours/years)

Ballast lifetime

(hours)

Ballast consumer price

of 2F40T12/ES ($)

Ballast consumer price

of 2F32T8 ($)

(X AP, 1995)

A standard'distri ution

(Engineering Estimate)

A set of standard distributions

(Engineering Estimate)

Dlstrob"V(Mn F 11

Tri(2K, 45K,

Tri(11:20, 12 . 44, 1 4.31)

Tri(16.97, 1 8.86, 21.69)

Tri(21. 71 , 28.94, 30.39)

A set of standard distributions Tri(15.03, 16.70, 19.21)

(Engineering Estimate)- Tri(19.57, 21.74, 25.00)

Tri(1.86,.1 , 30.60)

Tri(21.5G, 28 .7, 30.1 0)

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

ey Input Variables an Their Distributions 

Variable name 

Electricity price weighted 

by sales volume ($/kWh) 

Distribution "and source 

A relative frequency table 

(EIA 1995, 1996) 

Inputs for Four Foot LamplBallast System: 

Annual operating hours An empirical probability density 

(hours/years) (XENCAP, 1995) 

Ballast lifetime 

(hours) , 

" Ballast consumer price 

of 2F40T12/ES ($) 

Ballast consumer price 

of 2F32T8 ($) 

" A standard "distribution " 

(Engineering Estimate ) 

A set of standard distributions 

(Engineering Estimate) 

A set of standard distributions 

(Engineering Estimate)" 

Distribution parameters 

Tri(2K, 45K, 80K) 

Tri(11~20, 12.44, 14.31) 

Tri(16.97, 18.86, 21.69) 

Tri(21.71, 28.94, 30.39) 

Tri(15.03, 16.70, 19.21) 

Tri(19.57, 21.74,25.00) 

Tri(21.S6, 29.14, 30.60) 

Tri(21.50, 28.67, 30.10) 

3 . 
Two , amp Ballas

F4OT 12/B

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Two Lamp Ballast 

F40T12/ES 

4 
Input Parameters of LCC Analysis

2F40T12/ES Lamp/Ballasts

Unchanged:

Input Parameter Current Value

(March 18,1997)

Electricity price ($/kwh) $0.075

Annual lighting hours (hours) 4230

Ballast consumer price ($), baseline option (EEM) $12.44

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 1 (CC) $18.86

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 2 (ERS) $28.94

Discount rate 0.08

Labor, rate, electrician's helper $29.35

Lamp price (both lamps, $) $3.28

Normalized fixture watts, baseline option (EEM) 72.7

Normalized fixture watts, design option 1 (CC) 65.6

Normalized fixture watts, design option 2 (ERS) 61.9

Relamp life (hours), baseline option (EEM) 19,000

Relamp life (hours), design option 2 (ERS) 19,000

Time to change ballast (minutes) 30

Time to change lamp (minute) 23.5

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Input Parameters of LCC Analysis 

2F40T12/ES Lamp/Ballasts 

Input Parameter 

Electricity price ($/kWh) 

Annual lighting hours (hours) 

Unchanged: 

Ballast consumer price ($), baseline option (EEM) 

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 1 (CC) 

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 2 (ERS) 

Discount rate 

Labor, rate, electrician's helper 

Lamp price (both lamps, $) . . 

Normalized fixture watts, baseline option (EEM) 

Normalized fixture.watts, design option 1 (CC) 

Normalized fixture watts, design option 2 (ERS) 

Relamp life (hours), baseline option (EEM) 

Relamp life (hours), design option 2 (ERS) 

Time to change ballast (minutes) 

Time to change lamp (minute) 

Current Value 

(March 18,1997) 

$0.075 

4230 

$12.44 

$18.86 

$28.94 

0.08 

$29.35 

$3.28 

72.7 

65.6 

61.9 

19,000 

19,000 

30 

-23.5 

5 
%WY

.. ..... .............. .......

.......... ....... ........ .. .

.. ... .... .... ... at........... . ....

. .. .. ............... ....... ........ .....

.

♦...• •...• ...• .

............•• ........... ..........••••..aaa..^.

^ ®.

6's

........ ... .... ... .. .... .. ... .... .. ..... ......

. ... .......

a

uid

... ..... ... .... .. ...♦..

.. .... ........ ... .... ....... ... ....

. .......

. .......

.

ssu f4!pqugo j

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE U. . Commercial Sector Electricity P

($/kWh) 

......... ····r············ .. ········· .. '""1" • '" •••••••••••••••• ····1·· ..... ""1 •••• ""1 .............. ···········1 

ft :.: • • 

u .03 ." ..................... " ....... .. ..... , ....... : . " .......... ,. ...... .. " ... .. " ........ " ... :.;::::. 

l ! I 

: : 

. . 

0.02 .............. ( .....•..... ' ............... ... +.. ·····r···········l 

. : 

. ' 

............. ! ...................... . ....... ! .. . ... .,. .... 

o 

o 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 

Electricity price (Elec-priceeia) ($/KWH) 
Cumulative Probability

Electricity Price

Less Than (j/kWhj Percent of Sales

0.02 0.1%

0.04 2.0%

0.06 21%

0.08 .73%

0.10 94%

0.12 99.4%

0.14 99.6%

0.16 1 00%

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Cumulative Probability Table 

Electricity Price 

Less Than ($/kWh) 

0.02 

0.04 

0.06 

0.08 

0.10 

0.12 

0.14 

0.16 

Percent of Sales 

0.1% 

2.0% 

21% 

73% 

94% . 

99.4% 

99.6% . 

100% 

7 
Net v s or Net Costs Electricity Price

0

z

z

10

5^

..-_... ............................... ............ .............. .........

....^eo '^ Wi

....... ......... ..... .. ......... {............................... ............. ...........

• a

..................... ......._... .}...._...._... ,... .e.{.

11 !

-20

-25

-30

O03 /kWh

....

.

.. . .......... .............t ...

0

...... ........ . ;......... ...

.......{. ..... ... ..........

0.C % . 0.04

Key

a ' (CC .- EEM)

(ERS - EEM)

............ ............

........

.. ........ ....... ........... . . } ............. ._......_...

0.06 0.0 8 0.1 0.1 2 0.14. 0.16

Electricity Price (Ik )

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

l : 

. . Figure' 3A.. TOTAL Lee CHANGE ($): Two Lamp F40~121ES 

Net Savings or' Net Costs Depend on Electricity -Price 

1 0 .............. _ ............... , .. ;,: ........... ; ....... ; ....................... ~.· ............. r ••••••••••••••••••••• : ••••••• ~ 

: + 1 ~ D.OS"2/UWh. ~ ; ~ ;., ~ 

5 ........ e •••••• :. .. ••••••• -4:f:.J ········1·· ... .;. ............ :.~ ............... ; .............. i .... ~ ........ .1 ............... ; - .".. . . .. .. . .. - 0 : ~_: : : : : ~ :. . . .. ~. .. .. ." . _ : ............. :: .. ...... : ......... :: .. ::rs: .. 

j 

....... ·: ..........l:· ..... :·.· ............. :t.:· ... · ... ::·.:·.::t.~.:· ... ·.· ... ·.· ... :1.:· ... ·.:::·.·,·.:·J 

. }<1.o~~/kWh' ~ ~ 1 ~ l . ~ 

- 1 0 ···················'·····r···········l·············j ~~·;···:··············t··············j···········:·i.. - 1 5 ................ . ........... : ............... : ............... :; .......... ~.. . ..... , ............... : .............. ~ : : : :~ • : : .... _"11"_ 

: : : :"'"~ ~: : 

- 2 0 .............. '.'" ............ ~ ............... ~: .............. ~ ............... ~ ... ~ ... ~~ .............. ~ .............. ~ , 

. 1 j , 1 ~ t, Fa ~ - 2 5 .................. ···········r .. ·:········ .. l ...... ··········r .. ············r .. ········ .. ··~·· .. ·········:T·· .. ···· .. ···l 

• • • • • =+ • -30~.-------------------~:-------~·----~:----~·----~:----~~--~: 

o o. C 2 , 0.04 

. Key 

a (CC- EEM) 

+ (ERS • EEM) 

0.06 0.08 

Electricity 

0.1 

Price 

0.12 

($/kWh) 

0.14, 0.1 6 
e2 lc^V<X /^^ Figure

For CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $0.036/kWh for 99% of Electricity Sales

For ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $0.052 /kWh for 91% of Electricity Sales

0

Pk

0 41..-.....-... .......-.- .......... ..............- ........... _._....._..

0.031

0.011

0

F..._._. ...F.._..... .............

0 0.002 0.04 0.06 0.08 0 . 1 0.1 2 0.14 0. 16

:..... .........._ ....-

Electricity Price ($/kWh)

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Figure 3B. 

For CC·EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $O.036IkWh for 99% of Electricity Sales 

For ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $O.052IkWh for. 91 % of Electricity Sales 

o . 0 4 ........•.....• , ........... ···r·· ... ········r··· .......... , ......... '" '.y.' ••••••..•••• j ....... : ...... j ............... : 

o . 0 3 ....... ....... . ............. ! ............... ~. : ...... ;+ ............ +...... . ..... ~... .., .... ~ ............... ~ 

.. 

.. . .. ... ... .." 

: : :: :: 

~ f~ ~ ~~. ~ ~ ': : - : .. : .- .......... _.-......... '"'" .............. ~ ........... ·· .. ;.·i .. · .. ... -.......... ~ ......................... ~ . I .. eel 

0.02 ............... . 

0.01 

ws. ... "'-., ••• 'il it [ ~I[ .. ::::~]] ......... , ............... ..... ~(.: .. 

o -I-__ --1-L_~EUU!U 

o O.G 2 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.1 2 0.14 . 0.16 

Electricity Price ($/kWh) 

9,b, 
Cc mrnerci

1 .10

[Paybackless (v CC - -m

2

6

8

10

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

- - ' 

Payback by Percent of 

Commercial E1 ctricity ales 

Pa~back Less Than {)irs} CC-EEM - ERS ~EEM 

2 0.20/0 0% 

4 36% 140/0 

6 870/0 780/0 

8 970/0 97% 

10 98% 98% 

12 99°/0 99% 
Ballast Annual l ighting Hours in

300u

250u

200u

150u

100u

50u

U. S . Commercial Stock

(four foot lamp)

......... . .......... . . .. .......... ................. .. ........... .. . . . ...... ..

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Annual Lighting Hours (Ophr It) (Hours/year)

9000 9000

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Ballast Annual Lighting Hours in 

U.S. Commercial Stock 

(four foot lamp) 

300u .... ..... Y' .. ·····r .. ···r···H

... ...H.. .. ··r······· ·r········ r" .H ..... !.. .... ... 

250u 

.€ 

", 200u 

C 

QJ 

Q 

••••• ••••••••• H ••••••••••• , •••••••••••••••••••••••••• T............. ..... T..... 

........ .-.... . ............ ··r········,···· ... ....... ·······r ......... , ... ... H.H ........ . 

.c .... 150u .... 

-.t:l 

CIS 

.t:l 

Q 

'"' ~ 100u 

·········1········· r··········!·········,··········· ; ............ ( ................... ]""... .. . 

..... ········1··· ... ...... \ ............. \"........ .... . ....... ····t· .......... 1" ............ ·t···· ......... ; ........... . 

60u .... ............... ,...... ..... , ......... ·r····· .. , ........... , ....... + .... ······i··· ...... . 

o 

o 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 

Annual Lighting Hours (Ophr_lt) (Hours/year) 

9 
(Waa

4 r sua)

33) (Waa

s.xnOH 2ug3q (iu ClsJn0H)

0008 0006

rMo p0

000L

a..........}............w............

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q

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jabj. -- S AU T ON a® U doa Iso ua p sa ® i i

r1.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

,-... 

000-

......, 

r.l 

0 

Z 

~. U 

U 

U 

~ 

~ 

~ 0 

8 

Figure 7A.·. T()TA~ Lee CHANGE ,($): Two Lamp F40T12IES • j! .. " 

'Net ,-Saving or~ Net- Cost Depend on Lighting Hours 

~ U) 

~ 

U) 

0 

U 

~ 

<IJ. 

Z 

(I) 

Q.O 

= 

...... 

';> 

((I 

CI.l 

~ 

<IJ 

Z 

. ! 

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: ·:1 .! .: :':1 : : 'Or " ... • • .. ... II <II • <II ':"',.. • ~ • II lit .. • 0 .. • 

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++.' . SI('$o: : : : : : : " .. .. ... 4 • II a .. .. • .. .. .. 

~····'~~I~~·~·~·· .:.1 ...... ~ ... -.~ ............. ~ ............ i.~ .......... ~ ............. i ...... __ .... l ' 

:. : : ,: : . : :-. : ... " .. .. ... .. .. ... .. II .. " .. .. .. .. 

• • II .. .. .. .. .. .. 

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.. 5 

5 

o ... .."... l' . ~ : i r 

......"... 

:: ........ . 5 . _. -....... ··Ei·ilii1irsr-· ...... »l.·· "'..... •• ·········r _ ......... ··f .. -... ·····-T-·········_-r ............ .; .. ··········1 . .. .. : c.c :. .. :..:..: ............. l ............ i ............... : .... _a ...... ~- •• :............ •• ,. .............. .:., •••••••• 00 .... i ............... : ~ : :: .,:..: 

; : a d DCID : 

+ "'!.' ++N- : . : -1 5+-------~----~------r-----4------+ ..... ----~--~~----~----~ 

, 0 

Key 

1000 2000 

Lighting 

Q (CC .. REM) 

-!- (ERS .. REM) 

3000 

Hours 

4000 5000 6000 

(Hours/year) 

1000 8000 9000 
Figure

For CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1250 Hours/Year for 96% of Ballasts

For ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1750 Hours/Year for 90 % of Ballasts

------------

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

Lighting Hours (Hours/year)

R, k-,

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Figure 7B. 

For CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1250 HourslYear for 96% of Ballasts 

Net Savings Occur Above 1750 HourslYear for 90% of Ballasts 

300U ··--_· ...... ···v ..... ···· .. · .. · ...... ,-.. ······ .... · .. ·· .. ·· ...... ··· .... -_· ..... -............. _ ..................... -............. _ ..................... -...... _._ ........... -.. _ .... - .. .. . .. . .. .. .. . .. .... ....... .. .... ....... 111 

,. .. .. .. .. · .. . . .. : : : .. .. 

250u .... 

: : ........ : .. 

.. ....... __ ............. :-..................... : .. _- ... _ ................... :-..... _ .... _ ........ : ..................... ! .............. _-.-':":---........ _ ....... : .. .. .. .. .. .. .. '" .. .. .. .. .. .. ... . .. .. .. .. : .. 

200u ~.. :: : .. .. .. .. .. .. ...................... :-.................. : .... _ .. -... -........ ~ ........ --""''''' .. ".~ .... -- .. -........ "': .......... -..... -_ .. : .. _ .... _ ......... -:-........ -.~ ........... :-............ __ .. -: .. .... ........ .. : .: ..::: .. 

.' · . . 150u ..... -................ ~. ....... ..... .!. ........ -........ • .. ·i ...... ··· ........ ·· ... j .................... - i· ..... ··· ........... :-............. -:---..... ~--... ~.- ...... -............. -... : .. : ... ... 11' • 

1QOu 

50u 

o 

o 

· .. ... 

"... 

: " : .. · . 

· . ... T .. ~ .... · ... ~ ...... -.. -.. ~-- ................. ...:.. ............. "' ........... .::.. .. · .. .. .. ... .. t " 

• .. .. Ii 

· . . ................................. .. -..................... " _.e_ ......... _ .... _ .. ... _ ... _ ...... __ ... .. " .. " t " · . · . I i l : : .. " .. " " 

.: ... :. t + .......... ~ .. ~. ~ .... : ..... ~ ....... -.-:'.~ ... _ .. -..... ~. I . . . . . . ..... -..... _ ..... · : .. -.. _ ........ -.~-. . -_ .... _ ...... --: . · . . I; .: i . : : ~ 

· . : . 

I <i 

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 

Lighting Hours (Hours/year) 
ayback by 'of U.S. Ball-

(based on distribution of annual lighting hours)

Com

'

nereia1

2

4

6

12

2% %

% 17%

74% 58%

89%

94% 91%

%

10

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Payback by Percent ofU. . allasts in 

Comm'ercial tock 

(based on distribution of annual lighting hours) 

'Pa)iback Less Than {)irs} CC-EEM ERS .. EEM 

2 2% ·0% 

4 400/0 '170/0 

6 74% 580/0 

8' 89% 76% 

10 94% 91'% 

12 96% 960

10 

10 
0

L.+

z

0

V1

P

r

O

Vco

cv

0-

r to

N

Kr

VI

() o:^ E.J I^ D D Z 1 1 ®1OJJ

............. ..,... ,.. ...... . .......

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.... . ...... ....... ....... .. .......: . . ....... ......

.....^ .................. ......

.....{.....}........ ........t. ...... .........

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE IIA.. TOTAL Lee CHANGE ($): Two _ Lamp: F40T

Net - Savings or -Net. Costs Depend Incremental 

- 4, •••.•..••.•• "f ..... ······T .......... ··f············ r········· 'T" ...... ···T········ ····f· ........... r···· ..... '.. 

:. : :. : : . :.: . - 6 ............. : ............. . : ............ -;-.... ... -''-'''' ... :'.'''''.''''''''-.''.'''':' ............. -.... ; ....... : ........ : ............. . 

: : : : ..: *: 

:! ; : .. .: ! : !.: : .. .. 

- 8 ............. ]" .......... --!-.... ., t···· ....... i'" ......... "[ ......... ···t············ j.; .... ; ..... [ "','" ·····1· 

- 1 o .......... "1j /.:: ..... : ..... + ........... 1-

- 1 2····· .. ............ ! .......... --t-.......... -j--......... +..... :···t,···· ...... T···········! ····:·····1 

- - 1 4 ············_·········"!""···········!·········+······:·l ........... 1 ............ L·········r········.-·j 

-1 6 

2 4 6 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1'6 1 8 2 0 

Key Incremental Ballast Price ($) 

-e- (CC - EEM) 

-+- (ERS - EEM) 
. 0 9

e b ..........;

E e

E . r 8

B r q g

E S E E e g r g

........ r........, .............a,........... ............

B S p e

E 9, 8 e.

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eq.

pi

0 .

B B . ..... .... .. ............. .... .... ......... . ........... . 1 t

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............................. e6 .. ................. l..B...........

E E

> .

e ............

e ... e..,..............I............t`3 .. .... . .... e

r a e

9 B 0

, r a e

e B e e B B

e E

e 0

" 0

0

Poe

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Sensitivity of PAYBACK To Incremental Ballast 

2 

Two . Lamp; F40T121ES 

......... _--...,.. .. · .... _ ....... _, .. -_ ........... r ... _ ...... -_ ... _-· .. · .... • ... OJ .................... ., ............... _ ....... ,;;. ................. , ........ _ ......... __ 4 

: :.: : .-: .. 

: : : : II : : <I 

: : .: : : : : 

.. It "..@. 0; oil .. • 

: : : : : : : 

· : : : :..:.. :. -: 

........... 

--

... : .. -.......... -...... -: .... .......... ":"'.... _ ... , ...... __ ._ .................. --:- ............ __ .... :...:... ............ ............... ..:: · ... : : : : : : 

· · 

...... 

-

.... •·· .. · . i ............. -· .. ···-:· ...... • .. 

· . · . 

· · . . 

: -::::: 

! 

: 

:..:! 

.. <I : 

p ••• .:. •• ••• -i.:.-.: ....... : ..... -.-..•• j : ! .: :- : : 1': • .. • .. ·-··!·t·· .... • ......... • .. :-· ...... ...... • .. -: 

: : .. : . : : 

... :: : : 

• II : : • 

. ; : :' 

.. .: .,. : - '0 :. 1 .. ' .. . . .. • 4 .. 

.... : ......... P' ••••• : .... " ............ ::itf-: .. ·····;· .. -· .... · ............. T .. • ....... -.. · .. -.. .... :· .. · .. ···• ...... -.. ... -.. · .............. : 

.. : : .• .&J. f _ : : .. : : : 

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.... . . . " " " . .. , . .. . . . .. 

.. : : : .: : : .. : ! 

........ 

-

...... .. .. ... ............... : ......... .: ....... :. ........ -............. -:---...................... .............. -.... -•• :. ................ .!.. ........ -................ : .................... : 

0: : : : : : : : : 

: . 

4 6 B 1 0 1 2 1 4 

Key Incremental BaUast 

o (CC .0 EEM) 

+ (ERS EEM) 

.. 

· · 

· · · · · 

1 6 

Price ($) 

· -, 

· · 

· · 

1 8 20 

Price 

'. 

I D. h, 
Lifetime (a= Ballast

(four foot lamp)

10K 20K 30K 40K 50K 60K 70K 80K

Lifetime of ballast (Blife) (hours)

11

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Lifetime of Ballast 

(four foot lamp) 

30u ............................................................................................................................ . 

~ 1 ~ 1 1 l 

25u ............... ; ............... ~ ............................ ~ ........... ~ ............... ! ............... ; ............. . : 

: :: :: : : 

20u ···············1···············1··············· ....... ······(··············f··· ··········~···············1··············· 

; ~ . ~ ~ . ; 15u ...............' 

~ .............. ~ ............. ~ ...............' : ........... : ... ; .............. : ............... ~ ............. . 

:: :: . .' .' : 

. 

. .. . 

. 10u ········:······1············ .: ............... ~ .............. ~ ............... ~ ............... i .............. ~ ............. . .' .. 

.. . :: :: . .: .' . 

5u··· ................... :j......... .. :-........., .............. ,......... .............")"' .......... . 

o 

o 10K 20K 30K 40K 50K 60K 70K 80K 

Lifetime of ballast (Blife) (hours) 

11 
(.ir;A1s.Jn0 ) s-inOH

--- ------- --- i- - ;.....

• o

u q rI

..... ... mem«.e.em..........m ..m.... .A. .. ...... .......... ....... ...... .r.. .....m e.

. .. .m..., ....... ......... m..r .. smeoeom.e..ee'd.......... .. .m......

..«.. .ooso...p. o.. es ..... - ......... m.s^ o• mgps..sao . ,o.ae moon . ... ... ..... • oooooomr.m.. .mmrs eme

• O

B •

...e .......«........... ..............................o«............ .............. .m................«...........

JAN `Naa-SUH. Job s2UTAVS %f a® sinol-I 000SZ aAogy xn;D;D . s}SBf1 3O

Al3S I-N `L4faa°aa JO S W JoJ. anaa 3O %Zg

s;sullu

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Figure 1SB. 

For CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur ·for 8Z% of Ballasts 

For -ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 25000 Houts for 84 % of Ballasts· 

30u 

2Su 

...................... _! -.................... r···· ... · .... ·· ..... : .......... -...... -. : ......... · ......... · .. ·l ..... · .. 0._ .............. ro ....... 0 ............. :-............. ·····1 

: : : : : : : : 

: : : : : : : 

: : : : ': : : 

: ':' : : : :. : : 

··_-·· .. ····· ...... <··· .. • .... · ...... · .. ··:-_··········1··· ... ···_-... ""':....... .. .. _-t··· ..... ····· .. ··· ! .......................... : ................ _.: .. : " .. " d 

• ": <0: : .. . :: . 41 .... •• ~~ .. 

:f1 20u 

~ 

c 

~ 15u ~ 

= .Q 

~ 

10u .Q 

0 

... 

Q. 

5u 

.. -·· ... ·.· .. _-.:.· ... ·· .. ·· .... _ .. ·i .. ·.·--· ...... _ ... .; .. __ ·. .-_ ... _ ......... _ .. _...:; .......................... l ..... --............ .( .... _ ..... · ... ·--.. i : : : i .. : : : .. : :" : .. : .. : ..:: 

: .. :... :: ............. --" ... : ................ ~.-...... -... - ..... .;. ............... : ......................... : ......................... ................ -! .. ~ .......................... .( .. ..... ".. .; .. .. .. 

.. ... 

.. .. .. . -.." 

.. .. ... .." of' 

.." .. <II .. 

: : : : : : : . I: : : : .. : ·f···· .. ·· .. ·-· .... ··f···· ..... ··· ... ····-·· .. · ... -........ ·· ..... ~·· .. · .. ·· ........ ··· .. " ......................... i ... ·· ...... ·· ...... ······J .. . ... . .. .. : . I: : : : ... 

: : :' .. : : : .. .. ... .. .. 4 .. .. .. 

.. ................................ : t: • ...... -......... -....... .. ( .............................................. : : : ........ ~ .... --............ (I--... : .: : . 

: : 

.. :.: . .. · . . · : .. · . · : . o~~----~------~------~----~~------~------~------~·----~~ 

o 10K 201( 301( 401( SOl( GOI( SOK 

Lighting Hours (Hou rslY ear) 

f/.a-. 
Two Lamp 3alla

F32T8

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Two Lamp Ballast 

F32T8 

12 
Input Parameters of LCC Analysis

2F32T8 Lamp/Ballasts

Input Parameter Current

Annual lighting hours (hours)

Ballast consumer price ($), baseline option (EEM)

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 1 (CC)

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 2 (ERS)

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 3 (EIS)

Discount rate

Electricity price ($/kWh)

Labor rate , electrician's helper

Labor rate, electrician

Lamp price (both lamps, $)

Lifetime of ballast (hours)

Normalized fixture watts, baseline option (EEM)

Normalized fixture watts, design option 1 (CC)

Normalized fixture watts, design option 2 (ERS)

Normalized fixture watts, design option 3 (EIS)

Relamp life (hours), baseline option (EEM)

Relamp life (hours), design option 1 (CC)

Relamp life (hours), design option 2 (ERS)

Relamp life (hours), design option 3 (EIS)

Time to change ballast (minutes)

Time to change lamp (minutes)

(March 18,1997)

4230

$16.70

$21.74

$29.14

$28.67

0.08

$0.075

$29.35

$50.00

$3.28

45,000

74.2

69.4

65.3

63.0

191000

16,150, 19,000

14,000

30

23.5 1 3

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Input Parameters of LCC Analysis 

2F32T8 LamplBallasts 

Input Parameter 

Annual lighting hours (hours) 

Ballast consumer price ($), baseline option (EEM) 

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 1 (CC) 

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 2 (ERS) 

Ballast consumer price ($), design option 3 (EIS) 

Discount rate 

Electricity price ($/kWh) 

Labor rate, electrician's helper 

Labor rate, electrician 

Lamp price (both lamps, $) 

Lifetime of ballast (hours) 

Normalized fixture watts, baseline option (EEM) 

Normalized fixture watts, design option 1 (CC) 

Normalized fixture watts, design option 2 (ERS) 

Normalized fixture watts, design option 3 (EIS) 

Relamp life (hours), baseline option (EEM) 

Relamp life (hours), design option 1 (CC) 

Relamp life (hours), design option 2 (ERS) 

Relamp life (hours), design option 3 (EIS) 

Time to change ballast (minutes) 

Time to change lamp (minutes) 

Current Value 

(March 18,1997) 

4230 

$16.70 

$21.74 

$29.14 

$28.67 

0.08 

$0.075 

$29.35 

$50.00 

$3.28 

45,000 

74.2 

69.4 

65.3 

63.0 

19,000 

16,150 

19,000 

14,000 

30 

23.5 13 
1 4

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Payback by Percent of 

Commercial Electricity . 

Pa)lback Less Than ()l,rs} CC .. EEM ER.S om EEM 

2 0% 0% 

4 14% 20% 

6 40% 87% 

8 78% 98% 

10 90% 98% 

12 94% 98% 

14 960/0 100% 

16 99% 

• • 

als 

·EIS .. EEM 

0% 

14% 

55% 

87% 

100% 

. 97% . 

980/0 .-, 

100% 

1 
P F 3 2 TV Figure

For CC-EEM,' Net Savings Occur Above $0.047/kWh for 95% of Electricity Sales

For ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $0.047/kWh for 95% of Electricity Sales

For EIS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $0.065/kWh for 56% of Electricity Sales

0.041 ---------------•----. ... -- _ .----------- -- - .......... --...

G I Ali;

Statistics

$/kWh

Max 10.1443

Mean - 0.0759

Median 0.0696

Min 0.0162

Std. Dev. 0.0215

0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16

Electricity Price ($/KWH)

i 1, Gue,

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

;) F 3-:2T'2 Figure 16B. 

For 

For 

For 

CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $O.047/kWh for 95% of Electricity Sales 

ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $O.047IkWh Cor 95% of Electricity Sales 

EIS-EEM, Net Sayings Occur Above $O.065/kWh for 56% of Electricity Sales 

Statistics . o .04 .............. ; ................ : ............... : .............. ! ............... :............... : ..... . 

· .. .. .. a .. .. .. • .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .... 

.. .. . .. .. .... .. .. .. .. $/kWh .... .. .. " . " . " . Max 0.1443 

Mean· 0.0759 o 0'3 .............. ~ ............... : ............... t 

. . 1- ER5 ~ Median 0.0696 

Min 0.0162 

l cc l · , . .. ' 

Std. Dev. 0.0215 

- . 0.02 ............... " : :- .............. -:. :..... f : .. .... ! " .. _..... . ...... ,. ._ ........... : ...................... : .. .. . .. · . . 

. · . · · . ' · . . · . . : : : 

: : : · . . · . . · . . · . · . 0.01 ................................................................ - , . · , . · . · . · . · . 

................................. · . 

· . · . · . · . · . ...._ ... -

o -I-----"----J-.I- _~~..HI!JlI.1Ul 

o 0.02 0.04 0.06-: 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.1 6 

Electricity Price ($IKWH) 
Payback by Percent of U9S

C &L

"merc

(based on distributjn of a:

P2yjback Les T an yrs)

2 0%

4 .1

/9

6 50%

8 70%

1 0 86%

1 91%

®•

pock

ual lighting hours

15

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Payback by Percent of U. . allasts in 

Commercial tock 

(based on distribution of annual lighting hours). 

Pa~back Less Than (~rsl CC .. EEM ERS ... EE EIS .. EEM 

2 0% 0% 0% 

4 100/0 230/0 15% 

6 50% 63% 55% 

8 70% 85% 76% 

10 860/0 910/0 88% 

12 910/0 950/0 94% 

15 
Figure 1

For CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1600 Hours/Year for 94% of Ballasts

For ERS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1600 Hours/Year for 94 % of Ballasts

For EIS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above2000 Hours/Year for 88 % of Ballasts

3 0 0 u T--.-:-....- ...................... ---------- . ...........: .........................._.......... .. ..............

i ......... ......... ......... ......._.. .

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 -6000 7000 8000 9000

Lighting Hours (Hours/Year)

1 6a.

i1 -

--------- -------------------------- ----------- - - --- -------

....-- --------- .......... ......................

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

For 

For 

. For 

.a 

<0 

-.a 

o 

4.0 

.0. 

Figure ISB. 

CC-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1600 Hours/Year for 94% of Ballasts 

ERS .. EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 1600 HourslYear for 94% of Ballasts 

EIS-EEM, Net Savings Occur Above2000 Hours/Year for 88% of Ballasts 

:3 0 0 u -..... -... ~ .......... : ................ : ..................... : ............ _._--"';" ................... -.......... -· .. -... ·:·~·· ........ • ....... · .. • .. f .. ·-·-··=-.. -... T·· .. ~- ... -·-.. -l .. . .. ... . .. ..... ... ... .. ::.. . ! .. .." . .. ..... .." . .. . : : : : : : ! 2 5 O.u _··· .. ·• ...... · .. ·t ......... -........... ~ ....... - ............... : .... · ......... ·· ...... r .............. _ .. _ ...... : .................... :. __ ..... _ .......... -! ............. __ .. _ .._._.;: .. -.... _ ... _-_ ..... : .. ....... ... ..." .. .. 

: .. : .. ::: 

...... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..." .... .. .. .. .. ..." .. 200 u 1-···········:·············: .......... --:-... -........ ~ ........... : ............. : ............. : ............. ! ............. : 

: t''I"C: : : : : : : : .. ~..w .. .. .. .. .. .. . ': . .::::::: 

............. .. .. ............ ... .. .. 4 .. .. .. .. • 

1 50 U ...••.•...••. ; ...••••.....• ············{·············i············ ; ............. : .. ~.~ ........ : ..•.......... ~ ..... : ....... : 

. . . ; ERJ I -1 ~ '. ~ ~. ~ ~ 

: CC' : : : : : : : 

1 0 0 U l·············~· .. ..... . .... 1. J • .... -... -... ~ ........... -+ .. ............ + .

.. ..... ---. . 

.. ~-.~ .. .......... .. ~ ............ L 

.. .. -... -.-... ~ • 

: I" : : :. .. ': : : : . . -l f j ~ l l·· .. ~ .~ ~ ~- 5 0 U •.•.••••••••.• : ••..•.••• , ..•••••.•• -••• ~. ·-········-t············t·····-······~· ··-·····-·-~··········-·t····-······~ 

I I : : :. : : : : . .......... .. , . .. : : : : : : : . .. .. 

.. .... 

.. .. .. ...... .. .. . .. .... . .. o ~--~~--~~--------r.----~.------~.----~----~.~----+---~~. 

: 0 1 0 0- 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 ·6 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 

Lighting Hours (Hours/Year) 
, ................. ................ ................

2.5 5 7.5 10

Delta ballast price (Del ®bprice)

Key Index of changes for new designs (Changeind)

- 1 ' CC - EEC

2 ERS - EEM

3 . EIS-EEM

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Incremental allast Pric_es of 2F32T8 

~ 

'iii 

c 

CD 

C 

~ :s 

«S 

.Q 

e 

Q. 

in Commercial t ck 

0.6 

0.5 

··················T···································T················T·················r··················i 

.. .... .. ·· .............. · .. ·r .......... ··· ... T" .. ·· ...... ·· .. ·1 .... · .. · ...... ·· .. ·1 .... ·· .. · .. · ........ 1' ...... ·· ...... · .. ··1 

. 

: .' :: 

0.4 

0.3 

0.2 

................................ ..... .:. ................. ..: .................... ~ ................... .: ....................... . : : L : : 

: : ~ : : 

" 1 : ~ •. ~}. "1 ! .. • L • '" • ................... ,: ............... :' ........... T ...... · .... ·;·:·r .. ~ .. ·Ii·;.I·I ...... · .. ·r .... · ...... · .. · .... ~ 

: : ,1:: ~I~::~ :/ : .. .." J.. :IIi I'··~" .. ~ i H: ~ i ... :ti~:i~ :', i i .. .. #' ~,~ .e. ;,:: •• ~ ... I' .. .. 

........................... . ".~ ... . ....... ~ .... i .. · .. ~·f:fjl .. l· ·~:~~r f'i\'~~fj .. ·l .. :· ........ · ...... ·~ 

: ~ :, lJ ::: n.,:. ~~~I :".t,: I III~~ :"b : ) : : f.: :';1 ::: I :,;".r:' I: ~ !:~r" ;'. '. : 

. • .... : , 'll' .4, '·1 :.: II " ~ I .. ~. 1". J..II.. : 01 i ••••••••••••••• t· ....... ••••••••••••••• ~ •••••••••••••• , : .. t~:;" .• ; .. $· .... ·,; ... ··$i··:.······.l·····~:~::.;:::s;. .. ·.'·.".·,~········· .. : 

• : ... ,' i: I :, ~ , :: • : ':'. .' I : 

.~ ... /·.· ... :i.: . ~. :. : .......... \ . 

.. . ::.- - .. ~ 

O+---~--~----~~-------+--~~~--------r---~~ 

o 2.5 5 ~5 10 

Delta ballast price (Delta_bprice) 

Key Index of changes for new designs (Change_ind) 

1 CC-EEM 

2ERS-EEM 

3" EIS-EEM \ 

12.5 15 

16 
......................... ...... ......... ...........

00

O

Ln 0

r

52UYAUS }ON

($) ae9M D D3 1 d iLO1 •

N

10,

co

co

v--

m

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE Figure 22A. TOTAL LeC CHANGE ($): Two F;32T

Net Savings or Net Costs Depend on , . 5 ....... ···· ...... ···:· .. · ... · ........ ·· ...... ·:··· .. ······ .... ···:·t··· ... ···· ... ..... ·: ... · .. ·-.... ...... ·'"·· ...... -·· .. ·: .. ··· .. · ...... ·····:·· .. · ......... ..:-: -.. .." ........ ........ .. .. 0 '-' .." ....... ........ .. .." ........ .. .. .." ........ .. .." ........ .. .. 

: : :: : : . : : : 

c 

z C'Il OJ) 

f.'::: .-> u 

o .... , .......... 

: : .; .. :: : .." .... .. 

.. :... : - : . : 

- 5 ............................... .. -. .. ...... ;,; - . . ............. ..: .... ! .......... 1 .......... ..:. ........ _ .... 

. . 

: . 

U IZI .. U <l.> 

Z 

..... .. 

......... : ................. ............... ;.: 

....... - " .. 

. : - .... 

- 1 0 .............. + .............. ; ................ ::-

. 

. 

.. 

. 

I 

0 

: CQ 

- 1 5 ............. j .......... ::: r,· .. _... ..;, :.-. '. ::: .. ·1············ + ............. ·f············· .j ............. :; : :.4: : : : : : 

.. .. .. .. .. " .. .. 

: ! ! : .. : : ! 

.. .. .. .. .. • .. '! .. 

.. .. .." ".." 

o 2 4 6 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 

Key 

Increment.al Ballast Price ($) 

- . (CC - EEM) 

(ERS - EEM) , 

•. ·l (EIS -, EEM) 
Payba^^,-!,!^ by

Con-,7,mercial S-

(based c2i incremental ballast price

Incremental Ballast Price

Less Th

2

3 6%

4 22%

5 48%

6 76%

7 9 1 %

97%

1 0 %

17

cc - 177D!

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

, 

Payback by Percent of U.S . Ballasts in 

Commercial Stock 

(based on increm"ental ballast price) 

Incremental Ballast Price 

Less Than (~} CC au EEM ERS - EEM EIS Em EEM 

2 20/0 20/0 1% 

3 60/0 170/0 18% 

4 22% 780/0 " 52% 

5 48% 100% 92% 

6 76% 100% 

7 91% 

8 97% 

9 100% 

1 
o? F3 ^2 77

Figure 24B.

For ERS EEM, Net Savings Occur Above 22ooo Hours for 87% of Ballasts

For EIS EEM, Net Savings Occur for 79% of Ballasts

30U •--- -----_ .._...... ---- ---------------------- :. --•-•- .. .............^+_.•.--- --------- ...

2 5 u , ...................

: ....._......... ............................

20u

ISu

10u

--•--- ---•----...... ...............

___...__ _._^,^ ............ ... . . ........ ....

.......... .- ..----.----- .............................. .

U

10K 20K 30K 40K 50K 60 K

Lifetime of Ballast (Hours)

70K 80K

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

For 

For 

ERS 

EIS 

~ 

::: 

4Q 

c 

t.!l 

~ 

:t:! 

.Q 

cs 

.Q 

0 

.... 

0.. 

Figure 24B. 

EEM, 

EEM, 

Net Savings Occur Above 

~et Savings Occur for 79 % 

22000 Hours 

of Ballasts 

87% of Ballasts 

30u 

25u 

, 20u 

15u 

10u 

5u 

...... -... _--.... , .... - ........ _-._-_ ................... _ .................... : ....... -..... ---............ , .......... -.. --.-~ .... -.-.-.. ~ .. --.:-............. _ ....... -; .. : : .. .. .. .. . · · . . 

· · · . . . .............................. ( ....... -............. : ............ -..... : ...................... ":"" .... .. .. .. .. .. ·····-r .. · .. ·· .. ·····:····· .. ····· .. ·:····· .......... l 

· . . · · · 

· · 

: : .. : 

: . · . .. ----... _--': ...... ..:.. .............. _· ... !" ..... ·i ................. --........ ~ ........... ... -...... -....... ~-......... -.. ' ... --~ ...... -........ -......... { . .. .. .. · : . .. · ~ . · . . · . , . ., 

· · · · , .. .. : : : : ..... _-_ .. _-- ...... ; .... _- .................. =-- . ....,.. ........... . ..... -~.- .... ---.. -..... ! ........................ : ........................................................... ;. ............................ : .... .." 

o. 

. : .' ::

, 

. .~. : : : : ... ............ ! .............. -;-.............. -:-.............. :......... . ... ( ......... ···· .. 1 

" : : : : : : ... . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . . . . of I .. • • .. 

.. .... .. . .. . :1·: : : : : ......... ~ ... '. 

~~ ........ " .. ~ ..... ; ........ ! ................ ~ ... -.-......... ~ ................ ~ ... . . : .. . · . · . 

10K 20K 30K 40K 50K GOK 70K 80K 

Lifetime of Ballast (Hours) 
For CC EEM, Net Savings Occur for 68% of Ballasts

For EE M , Net Savings Occur Above 22000 Hours for 87% of Ballasts

30U -.. --... -r......._... _..^..__. _ _....._ ........_- _--------------- a ..__...... _. ..

2 5 l! . ------- -

w..........a ........................... . ...o ..g ....... ........._.._....

0 u - ; ....... ......{_ ... ... ........^ ....... . ..........;.............._

i s u . ........... .. ... .......... _ ..y............. ............ ........... }......._......

.._....... 11...._._.... T 0 u j

L 6 0 K 20K 30K 46K 60K 60K

Lifetime of Ballast (Hours)

70K aK

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

;2r-3;2/~ Figure .2SB. 

For CC EEM, Net Savings Occur for 68% of Ballasts 

For ERS EEM, Net Savings Occur Above '22000 Hours for 87% of Ballasts 

30u 

2Su 

>- 20u 

-; -

c 

~ 15u 

>- ".:t:: 

-..Q 

C!J 

10u ..Q 

0 

.... 

c.. 

....................... -: ...... -... - .... ! .... -~ ... - .... -r.-..... -.......... :-............... -... ~ ...................... : ......................... :: ................ -0-:; ...... : 

: : : : .. : : ; : 

: : :: : ': 

.. 

.. : .. 

.. 

..., 

If 

: :: 

0 

:: 

... 

.... • .. • ..... • ... • ........... 4 ... _ .. • .... • .... _···:··_.·_ •• __ -: ................ ·_-:-.... • •• -~ .. - .............. ~ ...... - •••••• --~ ••••••• - ..... -: 

: : : : : .. : : ..., .. .. (I :: . .. . .. .: .. -............... -... 2. .. -_ ................. ~_ ............................ ~................ • .......... :. ................... _-...:._ 

. ~ ~ ~ i 

: .. .. i 

: : : : : : : .. ·· ..... · .. ··· .... · .. ·:·· .......... _-_·· .. ·t .... ···· ... ·_- ...... + ....................... :, ....................... :-.......................... . ........................... 4- ........................ : 

: : : :. ::'" 

: :. ::; 

: : • • : : :4 • • • <II " .J ... ""' .................... i . . •• ... •·•••· .. • ....... ! ..... · .................. ··-r· .. · ............... · ...... ·: . ... · .. · ....... ··: ·· .. ··i· ..... · ................ ··· ... : i 

? ~ . : . : ; 

· . . : I) .. 

..... ••• .... _ ......... • ..................... • ...... ·t(. ......... ••• ............. -i · . . · . · . 

,5u 

: : :. : : 4 : 

........... _ .. · . ..:. ......... - ..... ..:.. .................. i .................... :. .............. _: .. _ .............. _:..011. 

: :': : : :' 

: : :: : · . ... . . . .. :. . . '0 ~----~------~~--------.-~------------~.~----------~4---------~-t-------------t-------------;--------~~~ :0 10K 20K 30K 4dl( SOl( 601( 10K aOK 

Lifetime of BaHas't (Hours) 
,Q 2-87A Probability Density of TOTAL LCC CHANGE (Tlcc_change) ($)

Discount rate (Drate) 0.08

Key: Index of changes for new designs (Ch...

Common Index: Step

0.25-

0.21

0.15

0.1

0.051

-40 -30 -20 -1 0 0

TOTAL LCC CHANGE (TIcc_change) ($)

Key Index of changes for new designs (C hange_id)

1 (cC - EEN)

-- 2 (-r)

E

U

1 -.. ... ..

-------- 0.9 ...... ................. .......... ....... 3-

0.8 t

.................... ......... ................... .............. . .... ................

0.71--------------------- ---------------- --...--------..._

- r

0 . 4 ................. ................. ---.......---- .

,.. ... ---------------- ................

0.2 ---------------- . ................ .. ........

......... :.... ..........

-- ------------------- --------------- --------------

0 ----

-40 -30 - 20 -1 0 0 1 0 20

TOTAL LCC CHANGE (TIcc_change) ($)

Key Index of changes for new designs (Change_ind)

1 (CC - EF-M)

2 (L=I:S-EF'`^)

'JI YYI ,SIC: ^^(/t Nv{v

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

Fi]v\jl{\.Q 2tA Probability Density of TOTAL 

Discount rate (Drate) ~ 0.08 

LCC CHANGE (Tlcc_change) ($) tlre/filt! 

It 1t1{ /J11JL 

.0 

ro 

.0 

o 

.... 

a... 

:0 

ca 

.0 

o 

.... 

a.. 

CD 

> 

:;:: 

ca 

::J 

E 

::J 

U 

Key: Index of changes for new designs (Ch ... 

Common Index: Step 

o .25 ···················r·················T"················ .. [ .................... [ -4.668 

; ; ; I: ____ -_3._6_0~7~ __ -_6_.1_7~5 

0.21-1' ~2 ~~~ ~~ ;:~ 

0.1 5 ..................... "!" ................... "!" ............ ·······t·················· t····················l·····················1 

O. 1 ······································<······IIll\I~I·j .. • 

0.05 ······················~li·jV~:~~~& . . ~\.A. J . \.: ~;,... \: . : : J"'./: : : : ___ ~_--_/ ...... ~ : ; '-::-s-- : O~--~~=+~----~~------~--------~------~~~~--~ 

- 4 0 -30 -20 -10 0 1 0 

TOTAL LCC CHANGE (Tlcc_change) ($) 

Key Index of changes for new designs (Change_ind) 

1 (c.c. - EEJA) 

2 lERS-~f'\) 

20 

~ :: ··.·.·.·.·.··.··.·.·.·J.·.·.·.· .• ·•··· •• ·.··.·r·.· •••• F····.:.J .. >~~·~I~~....J . . ; : : . 

:: :·,·r·I:··r>?F···r· .. 

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 

TOTAL LCC CHANGE (Tlcc_change) ($) 

Key Index of changes for new designs (Change_ind) 

1 (CC-fEfV\) 

2 ( £ R~ -5 ff"\ ) 
FOCI

1995,2000 = 7.5%,0%

Low conversion

AE097

1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5%

Medium conversion

GR196

1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5%

Medium conversion

AE097

1995,2000 = 7.5%,20%

High conversion

GR196

1995,2000 = 7.5%,20%

High conversion

AE097

Quads, primary

N W

O O

0

C

9

C

r

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

(V os; ('111 >'LL tj V?JtJ CCJ "Jtlecl 

""0 

OJ 

<0 

CD 

..... 

1995,2000 = 7.5%,0% 

Low conversion 

AE097 

1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 

Medium conversion 

GRI96 

1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 

Medium conversion 

AE097 

1995,2000 = 7.5%,20% 

High conversion 

GRI96 

1995,2000 = 7.5%,20% 

High conversion 

AE097 

o 

I\:) 

w 

Quads, primary, 

I\:) w 

o 

.j::.. 

o 

()1 

o 

en 

o 

("') 

c: 

:s: 

c: 

r » 

::! 

< m 

m 

z 

m 

:II 

G) 

-< 

en » 

:5 

Z 

G) 

en 

I\) 

0 

0 

0 , 

I\) 

0 

Co) 

0 

0 

:::r 

OJ 

;::::\. 

..... 

m 

:::J 

CD 

<0 

'< 
Chart3 NPV

NET PRESENT VALUE

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 -iI I I r r i

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

EIAEO97 Medium conversion 1995,2000 =

7.5%,7.5%

Page 1

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

>R. 0 

I'-

@ 

wc 

.2 

III 

Chart3 NPV 

NET PRESENT VALUE 

4.0-~------------------~--------~--~--~~~~----~---------, 

3.0-t-,...,;~~-.,...;, 

2.5 

2.0 

1.5 

1.0 

0.5 

0.0 

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 

Page 1 

IIAE097 Medium conversion 1995,2000 = 

7.5%,7.5% 
CUM ENERGY

PRIMARY ENERGY SAVINGS, 2000-2030 CUMULATIVE

IN DESCENDING ORDER

SCENARIO 3:

Electricity price: AE097

SCENARIO 5: SCENARIO 2:

GR196 AEO97

SCENARIO 4: SCENARIO 1:

G R 196 AEO97

Low conversion Medium conversion Medium conversion High conversion High conversion

1995,2000 = 7.5%,0% 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 1995,2000 = 7.5%,20°i 1995,2000 = 7.5%,20%

Level 1 2.7 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0

Level 2 5.1 3.4 3.3 2.7 2.6

Level 3 5.3 3.5 3.4 2.6 2.6

Level 4 5.5 3.7 3.6 2.9 2.8

NET PRESENT VALUE SCENARIO 2:

(Billion $ @ 7%) AEO97

Medium conversion

1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5%

Level 1 1.1

Level 2 3.5

Level 3 3.3

Level 4 3.4

Page 1

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0EE

PRIMARY ENERGY SAVINGS, 2000-2030 CUMULATIVE 

IN DESCENDING ORDER 

SCENARIO 3: 

Electricity price: AE097 

Level 1 

Level 2 

Level 3 

Level 4 

Low conversion 

1995,2000 =: 7.5%,0% 

2.7 

5.1 

5.3 

5.5 

SCENARIO 5: 

GRI96 

Medium conversion 

1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 

1.6 

3.4 

3.5 

3.7 

NET PRESENT VALUE 

(Billion $ @ 7%) 

Level 1 

Level 2 

Level 3 

Level 4 

CUM ENERGY 

SCENARIO 2: 

AE097 

Medium conversion 

1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 

1.6 

3.3 

3.4 

3.6 

SCENARIO 2: 

AE097 

Medium conversion 

1995,2000 = 7.5%,7.5% 

Page 1 

1.1 

3.5 

3.3 

3.4 

SCENARIO 4: SCENARIO 1: 

GRI96 AE097 

High conversion High conversion 

1995,2000 = 7.5%,20'J. 1995,2000 = 7.5%,20% 

1.0 1.0 

2.7 

2.6 

2.9 

2.6 

2.6 

2.8