From:Corkran, Jerry L [mailto:Jerry.Corkran@CooperIndustries.com]Sent:Tuesday, December 13, 2011 9:36 PMTo:jerry.schoen@aksteel.comCc:Andrew Delaski; Alex Hofmann; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Robert Berman; Brenda Edwards; Brian Coffey; Hirsch, Bruce R; BobSmith; ChrisBolduc; Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Gaytan; Charlie Drexler; ChrisBrown; Simmons, Chuck; Clark Silcox; Charlie Stevens; Dan Cohen;Millure, Dave; DavidFlaten; Dan Mulkey; Daniel Young; Emily Marchetti; Eric Peterson;Gary Fernstrom; Greg Rosenquist; Greg Coulter; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman;Freeman, Jeremiah; Jerry Hodge; Creevy, Jim; Jim Raba; Joanna Mauer; Caskey, John; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Katie Coughlin; Ken Winder;Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; Maxine Savitz; Michael Hyland; Michael Rivest; Meg Waltner; Pamela Costello; Ryan, Paul; Phil Harter; PhilHopkinson; Puesh Kumar; Polinski, Raymond; Rob Greeson; Richard Parker; Rick Anderson; Bob Saint; Robert van Buskirk; Robin Roy; Scott Beck; SteveNadel; Steve Rosenstock; Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; Ted Johnstone; Thomas Petrosino; Wes Patterson; Zhimei LuoSubject:RE: FW: Distribution Transformer loadingJerry,ThememocalledattentiontothePG&Epractices,becausewebelievethatwhattheyaredoingiswhatmostoftheotherutilitieswilldosoon,becauseitisanintelligentwaytousethesmartmetercapabilities.Itissmartnotjustforthetransformers,butalsoforthecablecapacities.TheDOEstudylockedina50%targetforthemaximumefficiency,likelybecausethatiswhatthe2007studyusedforthemaximumefficiencypoint.The50%maximumefficiencytargetiswrongnowfornewtransformerspurchasedbyPG&Eanditiseitherwrongnoworitwillsoonerorlaterbewrongfortheentireindustry.ItislogicalthattheindustrywillfollowthePG&Eleadandloadtheirtransformerstoaloadwhichgivesthemmaximumutilizationoftheirequiptment.Ifa70%averageRMSloadistheexpectedtargetwhensmartmetersareinwidespreaduse,thentheDOEshouldtargetthemaximumtransformerefficiencyat70%.AnotherreasonweencouragetheDOEtousethecorrectaverageRMSloadissothatthetransformerefficiencypaybackcalculationswillbemoreaccurate.Ifthepredictedaveragetransformerloadsareincorrect,thenthepaybackcalculationsareincorrectsuchthattheydistorttheactualefficiencyperformanceofthedesignsevaluated.ThankstoKatieCoughlinwhosentouttheemailwhichiscopiedbelow.ItexplainsthepercentagesoffullloadforthetransformerevaluationsusedintheDOEcalculations.Katie’ssamplepopulationwas10,000transformerswhilethePG&Epopulationdatawas6milliontransformers.Hello all,Load losses are calculated based on the annualaverage of the squared load, i.e. the RMS. The LCC analysis sums the results from a samplepopulation of 10,000 transformers, each of which is loaded differently,so we work with a distribution of RMS loadings.The shape of this distribution is approximately triangular. The shapeof the distribution was developed based on an analysis ofhourlybuilding loads for several hundred commercial, residential andindustrial buildings.The building load data can give us the averageload is relative to the peak load. For the transformer analysis we also need toknow what isthe peak load relative to the transformercapacity. In the LCC, this "peak load factor" is also chosen from a distribution.Uncertainty about how transformers are sizedrelative to their peak loads is handledby defining an additional parameter that scales theentire RMS load distribution up or down. The value of this parameter determines the average RMSloading, relative to transformer capacity,for the transformer population.Initially the Department's estimates for the population-average RMS loading were taken from the previous rulemaking. For the currentrulemaking, the utility representatives on the committee have provided us with data ontransformer loads, primarily for single-phase, smallercapacity units connected to residential loads. Based on their input, our current assumptions are:- for smaller capacity transformers the average RMS is about 32%- for smaller capacity transformers in low population density areas the average RMS is 25%These assumptions apply to design lines 1 and 2. Note that these design lines also serve smallcommercial and multi-family loads, but we donot have data on average loading for those customer classes.For the larger capacity transformers and 3-phase transformers, theloading is currently set to about 40% population-average RMS. We alsodo a sensitivity with the RMS load setequal to 50%. We do not currently have data for the largercapacity range.regards,KatieRecommendations:TheDOEshouldcorrecttheaverageandpeakloadfactorsusedforalllinesanticipatingthatthegoodjudgmentoftheutilitymanagerswillleadthemtofollowthePG&Eleadtoresultinanelectricutilityindustryloadedataboutthe70%offullloadlevelchosenbyPG&E.Thepaybackcalculationsandthemaximumefficiencytargetpointsshouldalsobecorrected.Thanksforreadingthis,JerryCorkranFrom:jerry.schoen@aksteel.com[mailto:jerry.schoen@aksteel.com]Sent:Tuesday, December 13, 2011 3:06 PMTo:Corkran, Jerry LCc:Andrew Delaski; Alex Hofmann; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Robert Berman; Brenda Edwards; Brian Coffey; Hirsch, Bruce R; BobSmith; ChrisBolduc; Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Gaytan; Charlie Drexler; ChrisBrown; Simmons, Chuck; Clark Silcox; Charlie Stevens; Dan Cohen;Millure, Dave; DavidFlaten; Dan Mulkey; Daniel Young; Emily Marchetti; Eric Peterson;Gary Fernstrom; Greg Rosenquist; Greg Coulter; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman;Freeman, Jeremiah; Corkran, Jerry L; Jerry Hodge; Creevy, Jim; Jim Raba; Joanna Mauer; Caskey,John; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Katie Coughlin;Ken Winder; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; Maxine Savitz;Michael Hyland; Michael Rivest; Meg Waltner; Pam Costello; Ryan,Paul; Phil Harter;Phil Hopkinson; Puesh Kumar; Polinski, Raymond; Rob Greeson; Richard Parker; Rick Anderson; Bob Saint; Robert van Buskirk; Robin Roy; Scott Beck;Steve Nadel; Steve Rosenstock; Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; TedJohnstone; Thomas Petrosino; Wes Patterson; Zhimei LuoSubject:Re: FW: Distribution Transformer loadingJerry.Thank you for a most interesting submission. In the analysis ofwatts loss versus load that you and Phil Hopkinson developed and sent out on 31 October2011 showed that above a 60% load factor, the lower conductor losses for silicon steel units resulted in lower total losses. Inmy earlier discussions withNavigant, I suggested they look at evaluating efficiency at two points, 50% and something higher like 80%.What PG&E is saying is that they are going to design their unitselections to -- essentially -- rely on overloading transformers during peak demand times. Isthat correct? If so, neglecting the issue of higher-load-factorefficiency should be reconsidered by the rulemaking team.Thanks. Very interesting.JerryJerry W. SchoenPrincipal EngineerProduct Development & Applications EngineeringAK Steel ResearchMiddletown, OH USA 45043-0001From:"Corkran, Jerry L" <Jerry.Corkran@CooperIndustries.com>To:"Dan Mulkey" <dhm3@pge.com>, "Phil Hopkinson" <phopkinson@hvolt.com>, "Aris Marantan" <amarantan@navigant.com>, "Katie Coughlin" <kcoughlin@lbl.gov>, "Richard Parker"<richardparkerdc@gmail.com>, "Brenda Edwards" <Brenda.Edwards@ee.doe.gov>, "Brian Coffey" <brian.coffey@navigant.com>, "Caitlin Johnson" <Caitlin.Johnson@navigant.com>, "Dan Cohen"<daniel.cohen@hq.doe.gov>, "Jennifer Tiedeman" <Jennifer.Tiedeman@hq.doe.gov>, "John Cymbalsky" <john.cymbalsky@ee.doe.gov>, "Chris Bolduc" <cabolduc@lbl.gov>, "Freeman, Jeremiah"<Jeremiah.Freeman@ee.doe.gov>, "Emily Marchetti" <Emily.Marchetti@ee.doe.gov>, "Zhimei Luo" <zhimei.luo@navigant.com>Cc:"Puesh Kumar" <pkumar@publicpower.org>, "Alex Hofmann" <ahofmann@publicpower.org>, "Andrew Delaski" <adelaski@standardsasap.org>, "Art Rosenfeld" <artrosenfeld@gmail.com>, "BobSaint" <robert.saint@nreca.coop>, "Bob Smith" <bsmith@federalpacific.com>, "Carlos Gaytan" <carlos.gaytan@ge.com>, "Caskey, John" <john.caskey@nema.org>, "Charlie Drexler" <charlied@uus.org>,"Charlie Stevens" <cstephens@neea.org>, "Chris Brown" <chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com>, "Clark Silcox" <clark.silcox@nema.org>, "Creevy, Jim" <Jim.Creevy@nema.org>, "Daniel Young"<DYoung@energy-solution.com>, "David Flaten" <david.l.flaten@xcelenergy.com>, "Eric Peterson" <Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com>, "Gary Fernstrom" <gbf1@pge.com>, "Greg Coulter"<greg.coulter405@gmail.com>, "Greg Rosenquist" <GJRosenquist@lbl.gov>, "Hirsch, Bruce R" <bruce.r.hirsch@bge.com>, "James Lass" <James.Lass@cleco.com>, "Corkran, Jerry L"<Jerry.Corkran@CooperIndustries.com>, "Jerry Hodge" <jhodge@howard.com>, "Jerry Schoen" <jerry.schoen@aksteel.com>, "Jim Raba" <Jim.Raba@ee.doe.gov>, "Joanna Mauer"<jmauer@standardsasap.org>, "John Rossetti" <jrossetti@mlgw.org>, "Ken Winder" <kwinder@mleainc.com>, "Mahesh P. Sampat" <maheshsampat@bellsouth.net>, "Matthew Nardotti"<matthew.nardotti@navigant.com>, "Maxine Savitz" <maxinesavitz@aol.com>, "Meg Waltner" <mwaltner@nrdc.org>, "Michael Hyland" <mhyland@appanet.org>, "Michael Rivest"<mrivest@navigant.com>, "Millure, Dave" <dave.millure@metglas.com>, "Pam Costello" <pamela.costello@navigant.com>, "Phil Harter" <phil@pjharter.com>, "Polinski, Raymond"<Raymond.Polinski@atimetals.com>, "Rick Anderson" <rick.anderson@faypwc.com>, "Rob Greeson" <rgreeson@federalpacific.com>, "Robert Berman" <bermaneconomics@gmail.com>, "Robert vanBuskirk" <Robert.VanBuskirk@ee.doe.gov>, "Robin Roy" <rroy@nrdc.org>, "Ryan, Paul" <Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com>, "Scott Beck" <ScottB@lvmetals.com>, "Simmons, Chuck"<chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com>, "Steve Nadel" <snadel@aceee.org>, "Steve Rosenstock" <srosenstock@eei.org>, "Ted Johnstone" <ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com>, "Thomas Petrosino"<tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com>, "Tim Ballo" <tballo@earthjustice.org>, "Tom Eckman" <Teckman@nwcouncil.org>, "Wes Patterson" <wes.patterson@us.abb.com>Date:12/13/2011 03:30 PMSubject:FW: Distribution Transformer loadingDanMulkeyandPhilHopkinson–theattachedloadingdataandtheexplanationofhowPG&Eloadstheirnewtransformersatatargeted70%ofthenameplateratingisveryfactualandthemostaccurateexplanationIhaveheardabouthowtheutilitiesloadtheirnewtransformers.Wehaveallheardtheterms“SmartGrid”.Thisappearstobeanexampleofasmartcustomerusingthelatesttechnologytoleadthewayonefficientuseofnewtransformers.Forthe30yeartimeframethatisbeingconsideredfortheDOEtransformerefficiencyrules,itseemslogicalthatmostutilitieswilladoptasimilarsmartprocessasisbeingusedbyPG&Etosizethetransformersandthataloadingtargetsimilartothe70%loadingtargetusedbyPG&Ewillbeadoptedbytheutilityindustry.Thisisexpectedtoresultinloadlevelsmuchhigherthanthe25%to40%loadsusedbytheDOEtocalculatethepaybacksforthevariouslosslevelsconsidered.Thekeyquestioniswhatloadingwillbeusedonnewtransformerstobeinstalledandnotwhatloadingexistsonsomeunitinstalledlongbeforethesmartmetersexisted.Dan–AreyouavailabletoansweremailsiftheDOEWGhasadditionalquestions?MembersoftheDOEWGwhoareutilityemployees:PleasecommentaboutthepracticethatPGEisusingtoloadtheirnewtransformers.Whatdoesyourcompanycurrentlydotosizetransformersandwhatwillyourcompanydointhefuturetoefficientlyloadthenewtransformersinstalledonyoursystems?MembersoftheDOEandNavigantwhoareinvolvedintheevaluationsofthetransformerdesigns:Pleasecomment‐WouldtheDOEandNavigantconsiderusingahigherloadfactorintheDOEpaybackcalculations?Basedonthe70%loadfactortargetedbyPG&Efor6millioncustomers,itseemsthattheDOEstudypaybackresultsarenotaccurateandthattheyshouldberevisedtosomeloadfactorthatreflectsthelatesttechnologythattheutilitieswillroutinelybeusingbasedonthefuture30yeartimeframebeingconsidered.Regards,JerryCorkranFrom:Mulkey, Dan [mailto:DHM3@pge.com]Sent:Tuesday, December 13, 2011 1:42 PMTo:Phil HopkinsonCc:Corkran, Jerry L; Meyers, Aaron; Trujillo, AntonioSubject:RE: Distribution Transformer loadingPhil:ItisgoodtohearfromyouagainasImissedattendingthelastIEEETransformersCommitteeMeetingsinBoston.YouhaveaskedaboutloadcyclesatPacificGas&Electricandinfactwehavepublicinformationthatisreadilyavailableonourwebsite.Thereareapproximately5.1millionmetersonthePG&Esystem.Theaveragedatafromtestmetersforeachrateclassfromresidentialtocommercialandindustrialisdisplayedonanhourlybasisforall8760hoursinayear.Multipleyearsofdataareavailableonthepublicwebsite.TheattachedEXCELspreadsheetisanextractofthedatafor2006.Therateclassesaredefinedinthesecondattachment.Thisdataisnotorganizedbytransformertypebutthereareanumberoffactorsthataresignificanttounderstandingthedisplays:1.Thesummarydatabyrateclassisshownattheverybottomofthespreadsheet.2.Asnapshotofthesummarydataisshownbelow:3.4.ThehourlyreadingsarethekWHrsconsumedwhichisalsotheaveragekWloadduringthathour.5.RateclassE1isthemostabundantclass.Iestimatethatitaccountsforapproximately80%ofthemeters.6.RateclassE7isalsoresidentialbutisTimeofUseservice,andprobablyaccountsfor~5%ofthemeters.Thisclassismostoftenadvantageousforhomeswherepeoplecanshifttheirenergyconsumptiontooff‐peaktimes.7.Thevariousotherrateclassesarealsodefinedinattachment2.8.Theyearlyloadfactorisequaltotheaverageloaddividedbythemaxload.9.ForPG&Etheaveragetransformerisloadedtoapproximately70%ofnameplate.Whilethepeakloadsarenormallywithinthecapabilityofthetransformer,thepeakloadswilloftenexceedthenameplateratingofthetransformer.10.Itisusuallythephysicallocationandgroupingofthecustomerservicepointsthatdeterminestheneededtransformer.11.FormosttransformerinstallationsthelimitingfactorisusuallythevoltageorflickerdropratherthanthekVAsizeofthetransformer.12.Agiventransformercanbeplacedintoserviceforawidevarietyofloads.Forinstance,thesame25kVAsingle‐phasepad‐mountcouldbeusedtosupplyeverythingfromasinglesignallight,toasingleisolatedresidentialcustomer,tofifteenorsoresidentialcustomersinasubdivisioninacoastalarea.13.Whiletheaveragedistributiontransformerserves5customers,therangeisfromonetoseveralhundred.14.PG&Eattemptstotakeadvantageofthefullcapabilityofourtransformerstoachievefavorableeconomicsforourratepayers.Ihopethatthisexplanationhelps.Bestregards,DanMulkeySrConsultingElectricalEngineerDHM3@PGE.COM415‐973‐4699office415‐264‐9260cell[attachment"ElectricRateSchedules.xls"deletedbyJerryWSchoen/AKSTEEL][attachment"2006LoadProfile.xls"deletedbyJerryWSchoen/AKSTEEL]Confidentiality NoticeThis message is intended exclusively for the individual orentity to which it is addressed and may contain privileged,proprietary, or otherwise private information.If you are not the named addressee, you are not authorizedto read, print, retain, copy or disseminate this message orany part of it. 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