IDEM INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 

We· Protect Hoosiers and Our Environment. 

Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. 100 North Senate Avenue 

Governor Indianapolis, Indiana 46204 

(317) 232-8603 

Thomas W. Easterly Toll Free (800) 451-6027 

Commissioner www.idem.IN.gov 

Ms. Susan Hedman 

Regional Administrator 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Region 5 

77 West Jackson Boulevard 

Chicago, IL 60604-3950 

Dear Ms. Hedman: 

October 12, 2012 

Re: Request to Parallel Process the Draft 

MOBILE6.2 to MOVES MVEB 

Replacement Update to the Indiana Portion 

of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-KentuckyIndiana Maintenance Area under the 1997 

8-Hour Ozone Standard 

The Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM) submits the 

enclosed MOBILE6.2 to Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) Motor Vehicle 

Emissions Budget (MVEB) replacement update for the Indiana portion of the CincinnatiHamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Maintenance Area under the 1997 8-hour ozone 

standard. IDEM requests that the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. 

EPA) parallel process this draft submittal for approval into Indiana's State Implementation 

Plan. 

IDEM is providing an opportunity for a public hearing on the MVEB replacement 

update to the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana 

maintenance area if a public hearing request is received by November 20, 2012. A 

hearing has been scheduled for November 28, 2012. If a request for a public hearing is 

not received by November 20, 2012, the hearing will be cancelled. IDEM is providing a 

42 day comment period on this update, with the public comment period ending on 

November 30, 2012. The final submittal of the MVEB update for the Indiana portion of 

the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana maintenance area will document the 

public review process, including a detailed summary of and response to substantive 

comments. 

This MOBILE6.2 to MOVES MVEB replacement update incorporates onroad 

emission estimates and revised MVEBs using U.S. EPA's recently adopted MOVES 

model. The onroad emission estimates were calculated using the MOVES-based 

emission factors and data extracted from the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, 

Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana area's travel-demand model. 

Recycled Paper @ An Equal Opportunity Employer Please Recycle 0 
Ms. Hedman 

Page 2 

MVEBs are being revised in anticipation of the mandatory use of the MOVES 

model in future transportation conformity determinations. Preliminary use of the new 

model indicates that emission estimates can be considerably different than similar 

calculations using MOBILE6.2, which was used to create the MVEBs in the original 

ozone maintenance plan. 

Onroad safety margins, established through the interagency consultation process, 

are included for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These 

on road safety margins are allocated to onroad emission estimates in order to account for 

the wide array of assumptions that are factored into the calculation process. With the 

addition of on road safety margins applied to mobile sources, the Indiana portion of the 

Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana maintenance area will continue to remain 

well below the overall safety margins for all sources. MVEBs are also constrained to 

ensure that total NOx and VOC emissions (i.e., all source categories) do not exceed 

attainment year emissions to ensure continued maintenance of the 1997 8-hour ozone 

standard. 

This submittal consists of one (1) hard copy of the required documentation. An 

electronic version of the submittal in PDF format that is identical to the hard copy has 

been sent to Pamela Blakley, Chief of U.S. EPA Region 5's Control Strategies Section. 

IDEM respectfully requests that U.S. EPA proceed with preliminary review of the 

MOBILE6.2 to MOVES MVEB replacement update and revised transportation conformity 

budgets and approval into Indiana's State Implementation Plan for the Indiana portion of 

the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Maintenance Area under the 1997 8-

hour ozone standard. If you have any questions or need additional information, please 

contact Scott Deloney, Chief, Air Programs Branch, at (317) 233-5694. 

KB/sad/sms 

Enclosures: 

Sincerely, 

((; 

ll)~.r 

Keith Baugues 

Assistant Commissioner 

Office of Air Quality 

Onroad Emissions MOBILE6.2 to MOVES Replacement Submittal for the Indiana 

portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Maintenance Area 

under the 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard and Appendices 

Electronic MOVES-based modeling input and output data files 

Cc: Doug Aburano, U.S. EPA Region 5 (w/ enclosures) 

Ed Doty, U.S. EPA Region 5 (w/ enclosures) 

Pamela Blakley, U.S. EPA Region 5 (w/ enclosures) 

Pat Morris, U.S. EPA Region 5 (w/ enclosures) 

Steve Rosenthal, U.S. EPA Region 5 (no enclosures) 

Recycled Paper (!) An Equal Opportunity Employer Please Recycle 0 
Ms. Hedman 

Page 3 

Jennifer Dines, Ohio EPA (w/ enclosures) 

Mark R. Policinski, OKI (w/ enclosures) 

Andy Reser, OKI (w/ enclosures) 

Scott Deloney, IDEM (no enclosures) 

Christine Pedersen, IDEM (no enclosures) 

Shawn Seals, IDEM (w/ enclosures) 

Recycled Paper (i) An Equal Opportunity Employer Please Recycle 0 
This page intentionally left blank 
Onroad Emissions MOBILE6.2 to 

MOVES Replacement Submittal 

For the Indiana portion of the 

Cincinnati-Hamilton, OhioKentucky-Indiana Maintenance 

Area under the 1997 8-Hour Ozone 

Standard 

October 2012 
This page intentionally left blank 
Introduction 

On January 21, 2010, the Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM) submitted a 

Request for Redesignation and Maintenance Plan for Ozone Attainment in the Indiana Portion of 

the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area. The United 

States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) subsequently approved the Indiana 

redesignation of the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area to 

attainment for ozone on May II, 2010 (75 FR 26118). Onroad emissions for the January 21, 2010, 

submittal were calculated using MOBILE6.2. U.S. EPA has encouraged mobile source 

stakeholders to transition to the new Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) model as 

expeditiously as possible. Therefore, IDEM is providing this MOBILE6.2 to MOVES replacement 

update to the previously submitted 8-hour ozone maintenance plan for the Indiana portion of the 

Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area that incorporates MOVES-based onroad 

emissions. 

Emission Inventory 

The tables, "2005 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic 

Sources" and "2008 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All 

Anthropogenic Sources" were included in Appendix C of the original Redesignation Petition and 

Maintenance Plan. The tables, "2015 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area 

All Anthropogenic Sources" and "2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment 

Area All Anthropogenic Sources" were included in Appendix E of the original Redesignation 

Petition and Maintenance Plan. The consolidated table, "2005, 2008,2015, and 2020 Entire 

Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Anthropogenic Sources" (to be 

considered a replacement of the existing separate 2005,2008,2015, and 2020 tables included in 

Appendices C and E as detailed above) has been revised to incorporate updated onroad emission 

estimates for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for the years 2005, 

2008, 2015, and 2020 and results in a different overall safety margin for the area. It should be 

noted that, "2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment 

Area All Anthropogenic Sources" includes only Ohio and Indiana MOVES-based onroad emissions 

consistent with the manner in which the Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEBs) were 

established in the original Ohio and Indiana State Implementation Plans (SIPs). 

I 
2005 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area 

All Anthropogenic Sources 

(MOBILE6.2-based Onroad Emissions) 

2 
2008 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area 

All Anthropogenic Sources 

(MOBILE6.2-based Onroad Emissions) 

3 
2015 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area 

All Anthropogenic Sources 

(MOBILE6.2-based Onroad Emissions) 

4 
2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area 

All Anthropogenic Sources 

(MOBILE6.2-based Onroad Emissions) 

5 
2005,2008,2015, and 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area 

All Anthropogenic Sources including Only Ohio and Indiana Onroad Emissions 

(MOVES-Based Onroad Emissions) 

(Tons per Summer Day- MOVES-based) 

Sector 2005 NO, 2008 NO, 2015 NO, 2020 NO, 

Area 21.39 21.38 21.38 21.38 

Nonroad 73.19 62.35 45.73 39.27 

Onroad 157.38 131.28 81.96 63.59 

Point 138.03 112.29 159.03 163.65 

Total 389.99 327.30 309.41 289.20 

Overall NA NA 17.89 38.10 Safety Margin 

Sector 2005 voc 2008 voc 2015 voc 2020VOC 

Area 87.12 78.36 74.69 74.69 

Nonroad 41.84 39.04 33.65 32.09 

Onroad 93.68 95.55 48.75 37.23 

Point 15.13 14.91 17.50 18.46 

Total 237.77 227.86 174.59 162.47 

Overall NA NA 53.27 65.39 Safety Margin 

Omoad emission estimates in table, "2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, 

OH-KY-IN Nonattainment Area All Antluopogenic Sources including Only Ohio and Indiana 

Onroad Emissions" were calculated using U.S. EPA's MOVES model-produced emission factors 

and data extracted from the area's travel-demand model. The MOVES model implements a 

significantly different approach to emissions estimation than the previous model (MOBILE6.2). 

Preliminary use of the MOVES model indicates that emission estimates can be considerably 

different than similar calculations using MOBILE6.2, which was used to create the original 

MVEBs for the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area. A 

general summary of the MOVES methodology used in this area can be found in Appendix A. In 

addition, MOVES input and output files are being provided electronically with this submittal. 

Growth and control strategy assumptions for non-mobile sources (i.e. area, nomoad, and point) 

from the original submittal for the years 2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 were developed before the 

economic challenges of the last several years. Because ofthis, the factors included in the 

original submittal may project more growth than will actually occur in the future. As a result, 

the growth and control strategy assumptions for the non-mobile sources for the years 2005, 2008, 

2015, and 2020 continue to be valid and do not affect the overall conclusions of the plan. 

Onroad safety margins have been included for onroad emission estimates to accommodate the 

wide array of assumptions that are factored into the calculation process. Since assumptions 

change over time, it is necessary to have an onroad safety margin that will accommodate the 

impact of refined assumptions in the process. The plan continues to meet all applicable Clean 

Air Act (CAA) requirements as the revised emission inventories clearly illustrate that total NOx 

and VOC emissions in the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana 

6 
Area will continue to decline leading to local reductions between 2008 (base year) and 2020 

(maintenance plan horizon). 

Transportation Conformity Budgets 

Table 5.1 was included on Page 25 of the original Redesignation Petition and Maintenance Plan 

for the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area. Table 5.1- A 

(to be considered a replacement of Table 5.1) has been revised to incorporate U.S. EPA's MOVES 

model-produced emission factors and data extracted from the region's travel-demand model. 

Table 5.1 from the original submittal included onroad emissions for Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana. 

For consistency throughout this replacement, Table 5.1 -A includes MOVES-based onroad 

emissions for only Ohio and Indiana. 

Table 5,1 

Emission Estimations for On-Road Mobile Sources 

for the Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN Ozone Nonattainment Area 

(MOBILE-Based Onroad Emissions) 

Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN 

NAArea 

VOC (tons/day) 

NO, (tons/day) 

Lawrenceburg Township 

(Dearborn County Indiana) 

subtotal 

VOC (tons/day) 

NO, (tons/day) 

Lawrenceburg Township 

subtotal% 

VOC (tons/day) 

NO, (tons/day) 

2005 

69.43 

136.73 

1.00 

1.44 

1.44 

1.05 

2008 

55.47 

113.45 

0.75 

1.14 

1.35 

1.00 

7 

2015 2020 

35.35 32.14 

51.04 38.17 

0.50 0.42 

0.60 0.42 

1.41 1.31 

1.18 1.10 
Table 5.1- A 

Emission Estimates for On-Road Mobile Sources 

for the Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN Ozone Nonattainment Area 

(MOVES-Based Onroad Emissions) 

Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN 

NAArea 

2005 2008 2015 2020 

VOC (tons/day) 93.68 95.55 48.75 37.23 

NO, (tons/day) 

Lawrenceburg Township 

(Dearborn County Indiana) 

subtotal 

157.38 131.28 81.96 63.59 

VOC (tons/day) 

NO, (tons/day) 

Lawrenceburg Township 

subtotal% 

VOC (tons/day) 

NO, (tons/day) 

1.31 

2.18 

1.40 

1.39 

1.35 

1.82 

1.41 

1.39 

0.69 0.53 

1.14 0.89 

1.42 1.42 

1.39 1.40 

Table 5.2 was also included on Page 25 of the original Redesignation Petition and Maintenance 

Plan for the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area. Table 5.2 -

A (to be considered a replacement of Table 5.2) has been revised to incorporate MVEBs calculated 

using U.S. EPA's MOVES model-produced emission factors and data extracted from the region's 

travel-demand model as detailed in Table 5.1 -A. 

Table 5.2 

Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEB) for the 

Ohio and Indiana Portions of the Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN 

Ozone Nonattainment Area 

(MOBILE6.2-Based Onroad Emissions) 

2015 2020 

VOC (tons/day) 31.73 28.82 

NOx (tons/day) 49.00 34.39 

8 
Table5.2 -A 

Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEB) for the 

Ohio and Indiana Portions of the Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN 

Ozone Nonattainment Area 

(MOVES-Based Onroad Emissions) 

2015 2020 

VOC (tons/day) 56.06 42.81 

NOx (tons/day) 94.25 73.13 

Through the interagency consultation process, it was determined that a maintenance plan interim 

year budget of 20 15 and a horizon year budget of 2020, would be appropriate. The interagency 

consultation group approved onroad margins of safety of fifteen percent (15%) for both VOC and 

NOx onroad emission estimates for the years 2015 and 2020. A summary of this interagency 

consultation discussion can be found in Appendix B. These revised emission inventories clearly 

illustrate that omoad VOC and NOx emissions in the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, 

Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area will continue to decline leading to local reductions between 2008 

(base year) and 2015 (maintenance plan interim), as well as 2008 (base year) and 2020 

(maintenance plan horizon). 

Furthermore, when compared to the overall safety margin as defined in the Code of Federal 

Regulations (CFR) at 40 CFR 93.101, it is evident the omoad safety margin allocation is 

reasonable and appropriate. More specifically, even with the allocation of an onroad safety margin 

to mobile sources, emissions will continue to remain well below the overall safety margin for all 

sources as detailed in table, "2005, 2008, 2015, and 2020 Entire Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN 

Nonattainment Area All Antln·opogenic Sources including Only Ohio and Indiana Onroad 

Emissions". MVEBs are constrained to ensure that the total emissions (i.e., all source categories) 

do not exceed the 2008 attainment year emissions of either VOC or NOx. thereby ensuring 

continued maintenance of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. 

Conclusion 

This MOBILE6.2 to MOVES replacement update to the previously submitted 8-hour ozone 

maintenance plan for the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area 

incorporates onroad emission estimates and a revised MVEB using U.S. EPA's recently adopted 

MOVES model. MVEBs have been revised in anticipation of the mandatory use of the MOVES 

model in future transportation conformity determinations. The omoad emission estimates were 

calculated using the MOVES-based emission factors and data extracted from the area's traveldemand model. Omoad safety margins for VOCs and NOx, established through the interagency 

consultation process, are included in order to account for the wide array of assumptions that are 

factored into the calculation process. MVEBs are also constrained to ensure that total VOC and 

NOx emissions (i.e., all source categories) do not exceed attainment year (2008) emissions to 

ensure continued maintenance of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. With the addition of MOVESbased omoad safety margins applied to mobile sources, the Indiana portion of the Cincinnati9 
Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area will continue to remain well below the overall safety 

margins for all sources into the future. As such, the 8-hour ozone maintenance plan for the Indiana 

portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Area continues to meet all applicable 

CAA requirements. 

10 
Appendix A 

Cincinnati-Hamilton, 

Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana 

Maintenance Area 

MOVES Methodology 
This page left intentionally blank 
Mobile Source Emissions Inventory 

for Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance 

Area - MOVES emissions model 

Includes a portion of Dearborn County, Indiana, the counties of Boone, Campbell, 

Kenton in Kentucky, and the counties of Butler~ Clermont, Clinton, Hamilton, and 

Warren in Ohio. Emission estimates for the Year 2005, 2008, 2015, 2020, and 

2030 developed in support of revision to Ozone State Implementation Plan 

April2012 

Prepared fo r the Indiana Department of Environmental Management, the Kentucky Division 

for Air Quality and the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency by 

OKI Regional Council of Governments 

Ohi o • Ke nt ucky • Indiana 

Region <I / Counc il of Govc.-nmc nts 
Acknowledgments 

Title 

Abstract 

Date 

Agency 

Project Manager 

Project Staff 

Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance Area 

This report was prepared for the Indiana Department of Environmental 

Management, the l<entucky Division for Air Quality and the Ohio 

Environmental Protection Agency. The Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance area 

includes a portion of Dearborn County Indiana, the counties of Boone, 

Campbell, Kenton in l<entucky, and the counties of Butler, Clermont, 

Clinton, Hamilton, and Warren in Ohio. Clinton County is outside of OKI's 

MPO area with emission estimates prepared by the Ohio Department of 

Transportation. This report includes emission estimates for the years 2005, 

2008, 2015, 2020 and 2030 was generated to support a revision to the SIPs 

for the 8-hour Ozone standard. EPA's Motor Vehicle Emission Simulation 

(MOVES) 2010 was used to generate the emission rates. 

April2012 

Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments 

Mark Policinski, Executive Director 

Robert Koehler, P.E., Deputy Director 

Andrew J. Reser, AICP 

Harikishan Perugu, PTP 

Larry Buckler 

The preparation of this document was financed cooperatively by the Federal Highway Administration, 

the Federal Transit Administration, the Commonwealth of Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, the Ohio 

Department of Transportation, and the units of local and county government in the OKI region. The 

opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this document are those of the OKI Regional Council of 

Governments and are not necessarily those of the U.S. Department of Transportation. This report does 

not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. 
MOBILE Source Emissions Inventory for the 

Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance area 

This report was prepared for the Indiana Department of Environmental Management, the Kentucky 

Division for Air Quality and the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. The Cincinnati Ozone 

Maintenance area includes a portion of Dearborn County Indiana, the counties of Boone, Campbell, 

Kenton in Kentucky, and the counties of Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Hamilton, and Warren in Ohio. 

Clinton County Ohio is outside OKI's MPO boundaries. The Ohio Department of Transportation prepares 

emission estimates for Clinton County. This report includes emission estimates for the years 2005, 2008, 

2015, 2020 and 2030 generated to support the SIPs for the 8-hour ozone standard. EPA's Motor Vehicle 

Emissions Simulator (MOVES) 2010 model was used to generate the vehicle emission rates. In 

December 2009, MOVES replaced MOBILE6.2 as the EPA's official emission factor model. The OKI travel 

demand model version 7.6 was used to generate VMT and speed estimates. MOVES emission rates 

were generated for VOC's, and NOx. 

OKI, as the MPO, is responsible for transportation planning and air quality/transportation conformity. 

Transportation conformity is a mechanism to ensure that federal funding and approval are given to 

those transportation activities that are consistent with the air quality goals of the State Implementation 

Plans (SIPs) for Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio. The SIPs include an inventory of projected emissions from 

vehicles. One or more of the analysis years in the projected inventory may be designated as the motor 

vehicle emissions budget (MVEB). This budget establishes a maximum allowable limit on future 

emissions from vehicles (mobile sources). OKI's transportation plans and programs must be shown to 

be in conformity with all SIP provisions. The conformity process is a quantitative analysis, using 

U.S. EPA's vehicle emissions software (currently MOVES), demonstrating that forecasted regional vehicle 

emissions do not exceed the established budget. 

Table 1 shows daily mobile source emissions for the combined Indiana and Ohio portions of the 

Maintenance area, including Clinton County. Table 2 shows daily mobile source emissions for the 

Kentucky portion of the Maintenance area. Separate MVEB's are typically designated for these two 

areas. An additional safety margin should be added to the MVEB's due uncertainty with growth 

assumptions utilized in the OKI travel demand model and MOVES. Daily mobile source emissions for 

each county are shown in Table 3. 

5 OK/ Ozone Mobile Sour·ce Emissions Inventory Using EPA MOVES, Apri/2012 
Table 1 

Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for the Indiana and Ohio Portions of the Cincinnati Ozone 

Maintenance Area tons per day) 

2005 2008 2015 2020 2030 

VOC 93.68 95.54 48.75 37.24 31.81 

NOx 157.38 131.28 81.95 63.59 56.48 

Table 2 

Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for the Kentucky Portion of the Cincinnati Ozone 

Maintenance Area tons per day) 

2005 2008 2015 2020 2030 

voc 25.20 16.53 9.08 5.89 4.53 

NOx 80.14 55.34 31.55 18.75 14.37 

6 OKI Ozone Mobile Sou,.ce Emissions Inventmy Using EPA MOVES, April2012 
Table 3 

Mobile Source Emissions by State/County for the Cincinnati Ozone Maintenance Area (tpd) 

State 2005 2008 2015 2020 2030 

Indiana 

Dearborn NA 

VMT 599,761 613,027 686,339 730,126 800,277 

voc 1.31 1.35 0.69 0.53 0.45 

NOx 2.18 1.82 1.14 0.89 0.80 

Ohio 

Butler 

VMT 7,804,476 8,133,554 8,721,511 9,277,916 10,169,344 

voc 16.70 17.12 8.72 6.68 5.72 

NOx 27.76 23.15 14.53 11.36 10.16 

Clermont 

VMT 5,391,578 5,599,530 5,810,859 6,181,573 6,775,503 

voc 11 '13 11.41 5.81 4.45 3.81 

NOx 18.50 15.42 9.68 7.57 6.77 

Hamilton 

VMT 23,170,766 23,481,421 25,598,858 27,231,982 29,848,450 

voc 49.03 50.26 25.59 19.61 16.80 

NOx 81.49 67.95 42.65 33.35 29.82 

Warren 

VMT 6,263,010 6,464,217 6,571,210 6,990,432 7,662,077 

VOC 12.59 12.90 6.57 5.03 4.31 

NOx 20.92 17.44 10.95 8.56 7.65 

OKI OH/IN Total 

VMT 43,229,591 44,291,749 47,388,777 50,412,029 55,255,652 

voc 90.76 93.03 47.38 36.31 31.10 

NOx 150.85 125.78 78.95 61.73 55.20 

Clinton, OH 

VMT 1,956,501 1,939,190 2,215,886 2,349,923 2,736,782 

voc 2.92 2.51 1.37 0.93 0.71 

NOx 6.53 5.50 3.01 1.86 1.28 

OH/IN VOC Total 93.68 95.54 48.75 37.24 31.81 

OH/IN NOx Total 157.38 131.28 81.95 63.59 56.48 

Kentucky 2005 2008 2015 2020 2030 

Boone 

VMT 4,186,006 4,355,527 4,712,497 5,129,347 5,802,955 

voc 9.71 6.37 3.50 2.27 1.75 

NOx 30.88 21.32 12.16 7.22 5.54 

7 OKI Ozone Mobile Source Emissions Inventory Using EPA MOVES. Apl'il2012 
Campbell 

VMT 2,437,698 2,495,174 2,727,746 2,969,033 3,358,939 

voc 5.62 3.69 2.03 1.31 1.01 

NOx 17.87 12.34 7.04 4.18 3.20 

Kenton 

VMT 4,182,042 4,197,027 4,791,791 5,215,655 5,900,597 

voc 9.87 6.47 3.56 2.31 1.77 

NOx 31.40 21.68 12.36 7.34 5.63 

OKI KY Total 

VMT 10,805,746 11,047,728 12,232,034 13,314,036 15,062,492 

voc 25.20 16.53 9.08 5.89 4.53 

NOx 80.14 55.34 31.55 18.75 14.37 

NA Area Total 

voc 118.88 112.07 57.84 43.13 36.34 

NOx 237.52 186.62 113.50 82.34 70.85 

Mobile Source Emission Forecast Process 

Emission Factor Model 

OKI's conformity assessment utilized U.S.EPA's emissions model MOVES 2010 to develop emission 

factors for VOC and NOx. Table 4 summarizes the settings used in the MOVES run specification file. 

Table 5 lists the data used in the MOVES County-Data Manager. Further technical details on the use of 

MOVES are found in the appendix to the OKI report "Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for Cincinnati 

PM2.5 Nonattainment Area", revised December 2010. 

Table 4 

MOVES RunSpec Parameter Settings 

MOVES 2010a, default database 20100829 

Sca le County, Emission Rates 

Time Span Time aggregation = Hour 

July weekday, July meteorological data 

All hours of day selected 

Weekdays only 

Geographic Bounds Two Custom Domains 1) 4 Ohio counties and 

Lawrenceburg IN, 2) 3 Kentucky counties 

Vehicles/Equipment All source types, gasoline and diesel 

Road Type All road types including off-network 

Pollutants and Processes All Ozone categories, Total Energy Consumption 

Strategies Modified AVFT strategy file to reflect 0% CNG 

buses in the transit fleet 

General Output Units= grams, joules and miles 

Output Emissions Time = hour, Location =county, on-road emission 

rates by road type and source use type. 

8 OK! Ozone Mobile Sow·ce Emissions Inventory Usinn EPA MOVES, Apri/2012 
I Advanced Performance I none 

Table 5 

County Data Manager Data Source 

Source Type Population Local and default. Local data from KYTC (2011) and ODOT (2010) 

from motor vehicle registration data. Default data used for source 

types 41, 61 and 62. 

Vehicle Type VMT Local and default. HPMSVTypeYear VMT=daily VMT from OKI travel 

demand model with EPA's daily to annual VMT converter applied. 

monthVMTFraction = default. dayVMTFraction=default, 

hourVMTFraction=local. 

1/M Programs Default modified to reflect discontinued 1/M program in 2006 

Fuel Formulation Modified to reflect low RVP fuel program in Southwest Ohio 

Fuel Supply Default 

Meteorology Data Local. MOBILE6 converted values for Ohio and Kentucky values from 

Kentucky Division for Air Quality. 

Ramp Fraction Local. OKI travel demand model. 

Road Type Distri bution Local. OKI travel demand model. 

Age Distribution Local and default. Local data from KYTC (2011) and ODOT (2010) 

from motor vehicle registration data. Default data used for source 

types 41, 61 and 62. 

Average Speed Distribution Local. OKI travel demand model. 

OKI Travel Demand Model 

Vehicle miles traveled and vehicle hours were estimated using the OKI Travel Demand Model Version 

7.6. The OKI Travel Demand Model is composed of CUBE Voyager programs and a series of FORTRAN 

programs written by OK I. It is a state of the practice model that uses the standard 4 phase sequential 

modeling approach of trip generation, distribution, modal choice and assignment. The model uses 

demographic and land use data and capacity and free-flow speed characteristics for each roadway 

segment in the network to produce a "loaded" highway network with forecasted traffic volumes with 

revised speeds based on specified speed/capacity relationships. 

Travel analysis zones are the basic geographic unit for estimating travel in the OKI model. The OKI region 

is subdivided into 1608 traffic analysis zones to permit detail as well as manageability. A variety of 

socioeconomic data items are used in the Ol<l transportation planning process. These data are used 

primarily to forecast future travel patterns by serving as independent va riables in OKI trip generation 

equations. The following categories of planning data are utilized: 

• Population (household and group quarter) 

9 0/(J Ozone Mobile Source Emissions lnventmy Using EPA MOVES, Apri/2012 
• Households 

• Household vehicles 

• Employment (by employment category and zone of work) 

• Labor force participation (by zone of residence) 

• Area type 

The principal data requirements of the OKI travel demand forecasting model are population and 

employment. From these variables, other characteristics including households, labor force, and personal 

vehicles may be derived. Chapter 5 of OK/ 2030 Regional Transportation Plan 2008 Update provides a 

complete demographic overview of the region. 

OKI utilizes both base year (2005) and future year data (2010, 2020 and 2030) in the planning process. 

Planning data are maintained at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level, and originate in the 2000 Census of 

Population and Housing. Base year 2005 and future year data for each variable are developed through 

various methods. More detailed explanation of base year and future year data generation for each of 

the above-mentioned categories of planning data follows. All of the variables represent the latest OKI 

planning assumptions. 

Population 

Base and Future Year Data: Population data for base year 2005 and future years 2010, 2020 and 2030 

originate with the 2000 Census of Popuiation and Housing. Utilizing ArcView GIS, population data at the 

zonal level for 2000 was derived from the area proportion allocation of block level population. 

As a tri-state regional planning agency, OKI uses county level projections as prepared by the respective 

state data centers (Ohio Department of Development Office of Strategic Research, Kentucky State Data 

Center and Indiana Business Research Center) as control totals. The most current projections (years 

2005 to 2030) were released by the Ohio and Indiana state data centers in 2003 and the Kentucky State 

Data Center in 2004. Population projections at the zonal level are calculated by multiplying household 

size by the projected zonal households. Household size is factored so that, in each county, the sum of 

the zonal populations equals the control total. 

Households 

Base Year Data: Household data for base year 2005 originates with the 2000 Census of Population and 

Housing. Utilizing the geographic information system ArcMap, household data at the zonal level for 2000 

was derived from the area proportion allocation of block level households. Year 2000 household data 

was updated to 2005 with residential building permits issued between January 2000 and December 

2004. The residential building locations were geo-coded in ArcMap, then aggregated to the TAZs. The 

housing unit totals for each TAZ were converted to households by applying a vacancy rate, an 

adjustment for permitted but unbuilt units, and subtracting demolitions (where data was available). 

These households were then added to the year Census 2000 zonal household total to arrive at 2005 

households for each TAZ. 

10 OK/ Ozone Mobile Source Emissions Inventory Using EPA MOVES, April2012 
Future Year Data: The preparation of household projections was accomplished by calculating the 

number of households for a projected county population using ratios of householders to total 

population by age specific cohorts derived from the 2000 Census for each analysis year. Disaggregation 

to TAZs was determined by historical trends, existing and future land use, topography, flood plain 

information, availability of land, local knowledge and other factors. 

Household Vehicles 

Base and Future Year Data: Base and future year household vehicle data were obtained from the 2000 

Census of Population and Housing. The 2000 Census is the only source of household vehicle data 

available at the block group level. Average vehicles per household were calculated for block groups then 

applied to the TAZs associated with each block group. The 2005, 2010, 2020 and 2030 vehicles per 

household level was held at the 2000 level based on the fact that, since 2002, the number of vehicles 

per household has exceeded the number of drivers per household. 

Labor Force 

Base and Future Year Data: The 01<1 labor force is a function of the population as determined by a labor 

force participation ratio (the number of employed persons in the labor force per persons 16 and over). 

Household data for base year 2005 originates with the 2000 Census of Population and Housing. Utilizing 

the geographic information system ArcMap, household data at the zonal level for 2000 was derived 

from the area proportion allocation of block group level employed labor force. The labor force 

projections for 2005, 2010, 2020 and 2030 were based on the most recent projections of national labor 

force participation rates by age and sex cohorts from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics for each of those years. These rates were then applied to the projected county age/sex cohorts 

and adjusted to eliminate the unemployed to arrive at a county employed labor force control total. 

Employed labor force at the zonal level is calculated by multiplying the labor force participation rate by 

the zonal population. The labor force participation rate is adjusted so that, in each county, the sum of 

the zonal labor force counts equals the control total. 

Employment 

Base Year Data: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW or ES202) data for 2005 was 

utilized as the primary tool to calculate employment at the zonal level. Individual business records 

containing physical location, number of employees and SIC code were geocoded through ArcMap and 

aggregated to the TAZ level. This data set was supplemented by other sources of data to complete the 

commuting employment picture in the OKI region. Each zone's employment was divided according to 

the SIC code into three classes (retail, office, industrial) based upon the potential for generating trips. 

Future Year Data: For future year employment projection, calculation was first made of the 

employment at the regional level. At the regional level, employment is a calculation of the region's 

employed labor force minus workers who live in the region but commute out to work, plus workers who 

live outside the region but commute in to work. The regional total was disaggregated first to the county 

level based on historic trends and expected changes in the county's share of the region's employment 

11 OK! Ozone Mobile Source Emissions Inventory Using EPA MOVES, Apri/2012 
and then to the TAZ level. Disaggregation to TAZs was determined by historical trends, existing and 

future land use, topography, flood plain information, availability of land, local knowledge and other 

factors. 

Area Type 

Base and Future Year Data: For each analysis year, each TAZ is assigned an area type designation as 

CBD, Urban, Suburban or Rural based on population and employment densities. 

Model Calibration 

OKI's Travel Demand Model has been validated to observed traffic volumes for the model base year 

2005. The modeling network encompasses the entire ozone Maintenance area with the exception of 

Clinton County, Ohio. The modeling network also includes Greene, Miami and Montgomery counties in 

Ohio and the remainder of Dearborn County Indiana. The difference between estimated vehicle miles 

traveled (VMT) and 2005 observed VMT is less than 1%. A highway screenline analysis compares the 

screenline observed and simulated traffic volume discrepancies with the ODOT standard of maximum 

desirable deviation. The comparison shows that the model performs at a satisfactory level and all the 

errors were under the ODOT curve. Further information can be found in OKI's 2007 report, "OKI/MVRPC 

Travel Demand Model Methodology/ Validation Report". For the calibration, OKI used over 3000 traffic 

counts collected through 2006 by the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT), the Kentucky 

Transportation Cabinet, many county and local governments, transportation engineering consultants, 

and OKI. These traffic counts cover nearly SO% percent of the links in the OKI portion of the modeling 

network. The methodology provides consistency with past emission inventory and conformity analysis 

work performed by OKI. 

Local Inputs and Post-Model Processing 

OKI incorporates a variety of sources of local data to both improve and confirm the accuracy of VMT, as 

well as other travel-related parameters. Free flow speeds used on the highway and transit networks are 

based on travel time studies performed locally. The OKI post-processing program, IMPACT, uses the 

loaded highway network to generate VMT by hour, VMT by speed distribution and VMT by facility type. 

These tables are then included as input into MOVES. Two separate sets of VMT tables are generated: 

one for the four Ohio counties plus Dearborn County Indiana, and a second for the three Kentucky 

counties. The VMT by hour tables utilize hourly traffic distribution and directional split factors for 

different roadway types as developed by OKI. The main source of the data was the permanent traffic 

counting stations located throughout the OKI region for the years of 2004-2006. This data was 

supplemented with data collected at coverage count stations (locations with counts taken on only onetwo days). The stations were classified by area type: urban and rural, and functional classification: 

freeway, arterial and collector. Speeds representing various "loaded" conditions (with traffic volumes) 

are estimated using techniques from the 1997 Highway Capacity Manual. This permits the estimation of 

speeds as conditions vary from hour to hour on the different facility types throughout the region. The 

IMPACT program performs the appropriate summation by area and roadway type as well as regional 

totals. OKI has also developed seasonal conversion factors to adjust traffic volumes to summer 

12 OKI Ozone Mobile Source Emissions Inventory Using EPA MOVES, AtJri/2012 
conditions. The factors were derived from local data collected at permanent traffic counting stations 

during 1994-1997 utilizing the average daily traffic monthly conversion factors for June, July and August. 

Further information on OKI's IMPACT program is documented in the report, "Travel Demand Model 

Summary Reporting and Impact Summary Reporting: OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model User's Guide", 

OK/2003. 

13 OK! Ozone Mobile Source Emissions lnventmy Using EPA MOVES,Apri/2012 
This page left intentionally blank 
Appendix B 

Indiana Portion of the CincinnatiHamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana 

Area Interagency Consultation 

Group Meeting Minutes/Summary 
This page left intentionally blank 
Interagency Consultation Group (ICG) Conference Call Minutes 

For the MOBILE6.2 to MOVES MVEB Replacement Update 

Related to the Indiana Portion of the Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana 

Maintenance Area under the 1997 8"Hour Ozone Standard 

ICG Conference Call Date and Time 

• May 31,2012 at 9arn Eastern 

ICG Attendees 

• Shawn Seals (IDEM), Patricia Morris (EPA), Steve Smith (INDOT), Larry Heil 

(FHWA-Indiana), Greg Karter (INDOT), Jenifer Dines (OEPA), Erica Fetty 

(OEPA), Andy Reser (OK!), John Gowins (KYDAQ), and Leigh Oesterline 

(FHWA-Ohio) 

ICG Discussion Topics and Conclusions 

1. For the Ozone MVEB Replacement submittal, mobile source margins of safety 

and minor rounding inconsistencies were discussed. 

A. After discussion, the consensus of the ICG was that the 15% mobile source 

margin of safety for VOC and NOx emissions does not result in an exceedance 

of the all sources margins of safety, and is reasonable and appropriate for 

inclusion in MVEB Replacement submittal. The Indiana and Ohio submittals 

will include an MVEB that include onroad emissions for only these two states. 

The subsequent Kentucky submittal will include a separate MVEB for only 

Kentucky onroad emissions. The attached spreadsheet demonstrates that a 

15% mobile source margin of safety for VOC and NOx emissions fall well 

below the all sources margins of safety and, as such, will be reflected in the 

Ozone MVEB Replacement submittal. 

B. It was noted that there are minor rounding differences between the source 

document (Version 2.12) for onroad emissions provided by OKI. The Indiana 

and Ohio MVEB replacement submittals will include values including two 

decimal points. These values will be totaled based on the two decimal point 

values and reflect mathematically accurate values. 

B-1