**Table 2. Estimated Annual Shipped Units 2008**  **2009 2010**  **2011 2012**  **2013 2014**  **2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  Masonry Heaters 730 466 448 457 466 475 485 494 504 514 525 535 546 Tuilikivi 365 233 224 228 233 238 242 247 252 257 262 268 273 Other Manufacturers 256 163 157 160 163 166 170 173 177 180 184 187 191 Custom built 110 70 67 69 70 71 73 74 76 77 79 80 82

R&D Cost ($)# ModelsModel

Design Lifetime (years) Certifica

tion Testing Cost ($)Certificat ion Software Cost ($)*

Masonry Heaters - large companies R&D356250 4 20

Masonry Heaters - large companies test 9 2010000 Masonry Heaters - large companies computer design 8 20 1500 Masonry Heaters - small companies computer design 85 20 1500

* The $1,500 is the initial one-time cost of the certification software, used to conservatively estimate the incremental cost increase (next page). After the initial purchase, annual ongoing licensing cost is only $450.**2021 2022**  **2023 2024**  **2025 2026**  **2027 2028**  **2029 2030**  **2031 2032**  **2033**

557 568 579 591 603 615 627 640 652 665 679 692 706 278 284 290 295 301 307 314 320 326 333 339 346 353 195 199 203 207 211 215 219 224 228 233 238 242 247 84 85 87 89 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106**2034 2035**  **2036 2037**  **2038 2039**  **2040 2041** 

720 735 749 764 780 795 811 827 360 367 375 382 390 398 406 414 252 257 262 268 273 278 284 290 108 110 112 115 117 119 122 124**2008*****2009 2010**  **2011 2012**  **2013 2014** ** **2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023**

**... 2038** 

**... 2041** 

Masonry Heaters - large companies R&D $9,157$9,157$9,157 $9,157$9,157$9,157 $9,997 $9,997 $9,997$9,997 $9,997 $9,997 $9,997 $9,997 $9,997 $9,997 $9,997 $9,997 $9,997 $9,997 Assumes 1/2 of other large manufacturers (besides Tulikivi) will undergo R&D

Masonry Heaters - large companies test $9,157$9,157$9,157 $9,157$9,157$9,157 $9,247 $9,247 $9,247$9,247 $9,247 $9,247 $9,247 $9,247 $9,247 $9,247 $9,247 $9,247 $9,247 $9,247 Assumes 1/2 of other large manufacturers and 1/2 of Tulikivi have already undergone pre-NSPS R&D and will need to certify only Masonry Heaters - large companies computer design $9,157$9,157$9,157 $9,157$9,157$9,157 $9,256 $9,256 $9,256$9,256 $9,256 $9,256 $9,256 $9,256 $9,256 $9,256 $9,256 $9,256 $9,256 $9,256 Assumes 1/2 of Tulikivi will software certify Masonry Heaters - small companies computer design $9,157$9,157$9,157 $9,157$9,157$9,157 $9,245 $9,245 $9,245$9,245 $9,245 $9,245 $9,245 $9,245 $9,245 $9,245 $9,245 $9,245 $9,245 $9,245 Assumes all small manufacturers will use software certification **Table 5. Unit Costs of Certified Masonry Heaters (2010$)***

Proposal: Step 1 in 2014 for large manufacturers; Step 1 in 2019 for small manufacturers Alternative (same as Proposal): Step 1 in 2014 for large manufacturers; Step 1 in 2019 for small manufacturers *Note: The average 2008 base year cost per appliance was converted to 2010$ for this analysis. 2008 base year manufacturer price is provided in theMarket Research and Report on North American Residential Wood Heaters, Fireplaces, and Hearth Heating Products Marketprepared by Frost & Sullivan. April 26, 2010, p. 35. **Analysis assumes that small manufacturers will purchase certification software in 2014, even if they take longer (until 2019), as allowed, to achieve the standard.