8C

- i



### APPENDIX 8C. CALCULATING ENERGY PRICE S FOR PORTABLE AIR

CONDITIONERS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

8C

- 1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 8C

- 1

8C

- 2 GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS

................................ ................................ ........................... 8C

- 1

8C

- 3 AVERAGE ELECTRICTY P RICES

................................ ................................ ............ 8C

- 2

8C

- 3.1 Monthly Electricity Prices

................................ ................................ ....................... 8C

- 2

8C

- 3.2 Monthly Electricity Price Factors

................................ ................................ ............ 8C

- 6

8C

- 3.2.1 Monthly Residential Electricity Price Factors

................................ ...... 8C

- 6

8C

- 3.2.2 Monthly Commercial Electricity Price Factors

................................ .. 8C

- 10

8C

- 3.3 Seasonal Marginal Price Factors for Electricity

................................ .................... 8C

- 11

8C

- 3.4 Results

................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 8C

- 13

8C

- 4 HOUSEHOLD ENERGY PRI CE ADJUSTMENT FACTOR

................................ .... 8C

- 15

8C

- 5 ELECTRICITY PRICE TR ENDS

................................ ................................ ............... 8C

- 15

8C

- 5.1 Residential Electricity Price Trends

................................ ................................ ....... 8C

- 15

8C

- 5.2 Commercial Energy Price Trends

................................ ................................ .......... 8C

- 16

LIST OF TABLES

Table 8C

- 3.1 2012 Monthly Residential Electricity Prices by State , 2012¢/kWh

............ 8C

- 2

Table 8C

- 3.2 2012 Monthly Commercial Electricity Prices by State, 2012¢/kWh

........... 8C

- 3

Table 8C

- 3.3 2012 Average Residential Electricity Prices by Region, in 2013$

.............. 8C

- 5

Table 8C

- 3.4 2012 Average Commercial Electricity Prices by Region, in 2013$

............ 8C

- 6

Table 8C

- 3.5 Average Residential Electricity Prices for New York, 1990

– 2011

(nominal cents/kWh), 2012$

................................ ................................ ........ 8C

- 7

Table 8C

- 3.6 Monthly Electricity Price Factors for New York, 1990

– 2011

..................... 8C

- 8

Table 8C

- 3.7 Monthly Residential Electricity Price Factors

................................ ............. 8C

- 9

Table 8C

- 3.8 Monthly Commercial Electricity Price Factors

................................ ......... 8C

- 10

Table 8C

- 3.9 Seasonal Residential Marginal Electricity Price Factors Based on Data

for 2003

- 2012*

................................ ................................ ........................... 8C

- 12

Table 8C

- 3.10 Seasonal Commercial Marginal Electricity Price Factors Based on

Data for 2003

- 2012

................................ ................................ .................... 8C

- 13

Table 8C

- 3.11 Residential Marginal Monthly Electricity Prices for 2012 Using

Marginal Price Factors (2013$/kWh)

................................ ........................ 8C

- 14

Table 8C

- 3.12 Commercial Marginal Monthly Electricity Prices for 2012 Using

Marginal Price Factors (2013$/kWh)

................................ ........................ 8C

- 158C

- ii 

### LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 8C

- 1.1 Method for Calculating Energy Prices

................................ ......................... 8C

- 1

Fi gure 8C

- 3.1 Monthly Electricity Price Factors for New York, 1990

– 2011

..................... 8C

- 9

Figure 8C

- 5.1 Projected Nationwide Residential Electricity Prices

................................ . 8C

- 16

Figure 8C

- 5.2 Projected Residential Electricity Prices by Census Division

..................... 8C

- 16

Figure 8C

- 5.3 Projected Nationwide Commercial Electricity Prices

................................ 8C

- 17

Figure 8C

- 5.4 Projected Commercial Electricity Prices by Census Division

................... 8C

- 178C

- 1



### APPENDIX 8C. CALCULATING ENERGY PRICE S FOR PORTABLE AIR

CONDITIONERS

8C

- 1 INTRODUCTION

Figure 8C

- 1.1 depicts the method the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used to calculat e

energy price s for the life

- cycle cost (LCC) and payback period analysis performed for portable

air conditioners (chapter 8)

. The overall approach incorporates calculations of average energy

price, seasonal marginal price factor, and monthly price factor

.

Figure 8C

- 1.1 Method for Calculating Energy Price s

8C

- 2 GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS

The Energy Information Administration ’ s (EIA ’ s) Residential Energy Consumption

Survey ( RECS ) 2009 1 

### utilizes 27 regions ( which they term reportable domains) . The EIA ’ s

Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey ( CBECS ) 200 3 2 

### consider s 9 census

divisions . The RECS region 27 comprises Oregon, Washington , Alaska, and Hawaii. DOE

separated out Alaska and Hawaii into separate regions (28 and 29, respectively), based on

recorded cooling and heating degree

- days. In addition, West Virginia, which is part of RECS

region 14 , was separated out into region 30 based on recorded cooling and heating degree

- days.

DOE matched state

- specific data fro m EIA ’ s State Energy Consumption, Price, and Expenditure

Estimates (SEDS) 3 

### to the samples of CBECS building s and RECS household s that use portable

air conditioners

, assign ing a sample population weighted by state p opulation for each region. EIA Historical

Data Seasonal

Marginal Price

Factors 

### Energy Prices Average

Marginal

Monthly Prices

Energy Price

Trends by

Census Division Location

Monthly Price

Factors 

### RECS/CBECS



### Sample

AEO Energy

Price Trends Average Energy

Prices8C

- 2



### 8C

- 3 AV ERAGE ELECTRICTY PRICES

This section presents results of DOE ’ s calculation of average electricity prices for

residential and commercial users of portable air conditioners (ACs)

. DOE developed monthly

electricity prices for residential and commercial use. Prices also are given for each geographic

region o f the United States

.

8C

- 3.1 Monthly Electricity Prices

DOE first derived 201 2 annual electricity prices from EIA Form 8 26 data

. 4 

### The EIA

Form 8 26 data include energy prices b y state

. DOE calculated annual electricity prices for both

commercial and residential settings for each geographic area by averaging monthly energy prices

by state

. For areas encompassing more than one state

, DOE weight ed each state ’ s average price

by its number of households and commercial buildings

. Table 8C

- 3.1 shows monthly residential

electricity prices by state

. Table 8C

- 3.2 shows monthly commercial electricity prices by state

. Note that all energy prices listed here are in 2012 ¢ . I n the LCC spreadsheet

, th e values were

converted to 2013$ based on the consumer price inde x (CPI). 5 

### Values in 2012$ were converted

to 2013$ to be consistent with the rest of the prices used in the analysis.

Table 8C

- 3.1 201 2 Monthly Residential Electricity Prices by State

, 201 2 ¢ / kWh

Geographic Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg.

201 2

United States 11.41 11.51 11.70 11.92 11.90 12.09 12.00 12.17 12.30 12.03 11.75 11.62 11.87

Alabama 10.91 11.21 11.48 11.56 11.14 11.56 11.58 11.71 11.76 11.71 11.04 10.96 11.39

Alaska 18.04 17.44 17.97 17.64 18.43 18.10 19.44 19.07 17.34 17.82 17.10 17.06 17.95

Arizona 10.01 10.26 10.44 11.17 11.88 11.90 11.86 11.83 11.66 11.36 10.73 10.41 11.13

Arkansas 8.41 8.68 8.99 9.35 9.14 9.58 9.62 9.69 9.80 9.39 9.46 9.07 9.27

California 15.29 14.56 14.70 14.66 15.02 15.92 15.22 16.46 16.82 14.22 14.88 15.49 15.27

Colorado 10.61 10.76 10.84 11.04 11.27 12.01 12.32 12.15 12.11 11.33 11.38 11.07 11.41

Connecticut 17.32 17.09 17.16 17.64 17.71 17.30 17.08 17.12 17.24 18.08 17.82 17.06 17.39

Delaware 13.03 13.17 13.52 13.93 14.37 13.98 13.32 13.57 13.74 14.53 13.63 13.03 13.65

District of Columbia 11.78 12.21 12.20 12.49 12.39 13.18 12.26 12.23 12.22 12.35 12.21 11.98 12.29

Florida 11.55 11.33 11.09 11.42 11.00 11.49 11.31 11.49 11.60 11.53 11.82 11.38 11.42

Georgia 10.23 10.61 10.58 10.77 11.08 11.88 12.13 12.18 11.87 10.89 10.28 10.29 11.07

Hawaii 36.25 36.80 37.05 37.51 38.21 40.16 37.84 37.18 37.21 36.96 36.81 36.33 37.36

Idaho 8.15 8.09 8.18 8.16 8.39 9.04 9.75 9.77 8.31 9.11 8.67 8.54 8.68

Illinois 11.21 11.45 11.97 12.45 12.73 11.24 10.81 10.78 11.36 11.91 11.35 10.62 11.49

Indiana 10.00 10.18 10.85 11.56 10.85 10.54 9.94 10.44 10.92 11.09 10.45 10.49 10.61

Iowa 9.74 9.77 10.26 11.23 10.98 11.32 11.54 12.03 11.38 10.99 10.34 10.16 10.81

Kansas 10.23 10.71 10.81 11.15 11.28 11.69 11.74 11.72 11.52 11.29 10.96 10.90 11.17

Kentucky 8.98 9.07 9.47 9.63 9.72 9.48 9.27 9.45 9.83 9.72 9.41 9.46 9.46

Louisiana 8.15 8.40 8.40 8.38 8.48 8.01 8.38 8.29 8.56 8.68 8.39 8.47 8.38

Maine 15.02 15.07 14.28 14.46 14.41 14.21 14.63 14.66 14.81 14.76 14.83 14.70 14.65

Maryland 12.48 12.55 12.86 12.90 12.95 13.14 12.88 13.09 13.17 13.03 12.40 12.67 12.84

Massachusetts 15.10 15.41 15.72 14.80 15.39 15.48 14.58 14.16 15.20 14.38 13.77 15.19 14.938C

- 3

Geographic Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg.

201 2

Michigan 13.48 13.48 13.63 13.69 14.39 14.13 15.06 14.53 14.37 14.22 13.98 14.08 14.09

Minnesota 10.76 10.71 10.94 11.14 11.30 11.79 11.84 12.18 12.09 11.54 11.03 10.95 11.36

Mississippi 10.03 10.43 10.62 10.66 10.37 10.26 10.14 9.95 9.98 10.31 10.65 10.29 10.31

Missouri 8.66 8.90 9.33 10.06 10.90 11.53 11.31 11.49 10.46 9.89 9.20 9.03 10.06

Montana 9.57 9.59 9.70 9.86 10.13 10.43 10.60 10.52 10.74 10.54 10.04 9.89 10.13

Nebraska 8.61 8.86 9.16 9.95 9.68 10.71 11.38 11.24 11.50 10.43 9.43 9.13 10.01

Nevada 11.38 12.55 12.16 12.40 12.10 11.80 11.52 11.46 11.58 12.04 12.45 11.82 11.94

New Hampshire 16.17 16.12 16.33 16.45 16.53 16.51 15.81 15.59 15.88 16.03 15.90 15.83 16.10

New Jersey 16.07 16.22 15.86 15.91 15.93 15.67 16.12 15.81 15.57 15.17 15.24 15.49 15.76

New Mexico 10.79 10.62 10.71 10.77 11.04 12.08 12.19 12.49 11.98 11.51 10.69 10.71 11.30

New York 16.79 16.51 16.64 16.70 17.33 18.31 18.38 18.12 18.52 18.44 17.44 17.47 17.55

North Carolina 10.09 10.76 11.00 11.42 10.80 11.00 11.03 11.23 11.52 11.41 10.53 10.41 10.93

North Dakota 7.65 8.12 8.43 9.22 9.60 10.57 10.00 10.27 10.47 9.42 8.61 8.61 9.25

Ohio 11.08 11.04 11.35 11.93 11.85 12.24 12.16 12.14 12.27 12.06 11.67 11.39 11.77

Oklahoma 8.70 9.48 9.87 10.31 9.53 9.50 9.12 9.70 10.13 10.09 9.57 8.71 9.56

Oregon 9.58 9.63 9.66 9.73 9.86 9.92 10.01 10.01 10.00 10.00 9.82 9.74 9.83

Pennsylvania 12.82 12.79 12.77 12.97 12.99 12.89 12.62 12.68 12.57 12.80 12.60 12.62 12.76

Rhode Island 14.75 14.94 14.82 13.15 14.41 15.32 13.90 14.00 15.09 13.66 13.06 15.70 14.40

South Carolina 11.15 11.64 12.04 11.94 11.40 12.32 11.48 12.14 11.85 11.80 11.67 11.87 11.78

South Dakota 9.22 9.26 9.49 10.22 10.61 10.47 10.59 10.60 10.85 10.66 10.01 9.59 10.13

Tennessee 9.80 9.64 9.83 10.11 10.24 10.24 10.14 10.00 10.18 10.41 10.33 10.48 10.12

Texas 10.77 11.05 11.01 11.02 10.84 10.97 10.87 10.96 11.11 11.16 11.11 10.99 10.99

Utah 9.23 9.33 9.36 9.47 9.87 10.35 10.68 10.66 10.23 9.59 9.70 9.73 9.85

Vermont 16.52 17.07 16.76 16.87 16.41 16.93 16.77 16.38 16.38 17.51 19.26 17.20 17.01

Virginia 10.45 10.89 11.09 11.38 11.50 11.84 11.42 11.25 11.10 11.03 10.71 10.51 11.10

Washington 8.37 8.28 8.35 8.46 8.52 8.70 8.70 8.72 8.79 8.68 8.61 8.53 8.56

West Virginia 9.49 9.68 9.85 9.84 10.48 9.92 9.88 9.85 10.04 10.18 9.85 9.63 9.89

Wisconsin 12.66 12.88 13.10 13.36 13.35 13.36 13.28 13.50 13.83 13.43 13.16 12.61 13.21

Wyoming 9.12 9.16 9.40 9.74 10.08 10.22 10.38 10.27 10.38 10.36 10.01 9.89 9.92



### Table 8C

- 3.2 201 2 Monthly Commercial Electricity Prices by State

, 201 2 ¢ / kWh

Geographic

Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg.

201 2

United States 10.16 10.28 10.23 10.20 10.37 10.61 10.60 10.52 10.54 10.35 10.22 10.22 10.36

Alabama 10.52 10.71 10.56 10.50 10.38 10.74 10.74 10.83 10.59 10.76 10.62 10.58 10.63

Alaska 15.16 14.83 14.99 14.69 15.26 15.13 15.14 14.90 14.14 15.53 14.70 14.69 14.93

Arizona 8.61 8.69 8.77 9.27 10.03 10.09 10.23 10.19 9.87 9.72 8.94 9.00 9.45

Arkansas 7.57 7.53 7.57 7.43 7.57 7.83 7.87 7.88 7.90 7.76 7.73 7.75 7.70

California 11.73 11.99 11.70 11.93 12.65 15.19 14.80 15.52 15.86 13.52 12.66 11.81 13.28

Colorado 8.49 8.86 8.94 9.04 9.27 9.93 9.80 9.83 9.82 9.70 9.53 9.19 9.37

Connecticut 15.00 14.73 14.53 14.76 14.69 14.55 14.59 14.51 14.51 14.73 14.86 14.45 14.66

Delaware 9.77 10.05 9.92 9.84 9.88 10.17 10.10 10.27 10.14 10.36 10.48 10.51 10.12

District of

Columbia 12.33 12.27 12.22 12.30 12.26 12.03 11.86 11.76 11.74 12.10 11.63 11.88 12.03

Florida 9.93 9.85 9.53 9.67 9.36 9.61 9.46 9.56 9.68 9.69 10.10 9.69 9.688C

- 4

Geographic

Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg.

201 2

Georgia 9.51 9.51 9.40 9.38 9.65 9.58 10.10 9.65 9.61 9.56 9.47 9.33 9.56

Hawaii 34.02 34.45 34.99 35.30 35.85 37.21 35.41 34.31 34.81 34.32 34.15 33.81 34.89

Idaho 6.52 6.50 6.55 6.72 6.78 7.06 7.41 7.42 6.79 6.94 6.84 6.70 6.85

Illinois 8.06 8.24 8.10 8.16 8.26 7.76 7.98 7.99 8.04 7.79 7.88 7.64 7.99

Indiana 9.10 9.30 9.41 9.49 9.21 9.14 8.92 8.96 9.01 8.99 9.05 9.25 9.15

Iowa 7.22 7.37 7.53 7.79 7.83 8.45 8.82 9.25 8.38 7.88 7.51 7.65 7.97

Kansas 8.74 9.04 8.95 9.06 9.23 9.70 9.45 9.50 9.53 9.36 9.01 8.93 9.21

Kentucky 8.34 8.63 8.79 8.70 9.10 8.91 8.54 8.63 9.03 8.47 8.79 8.84 8.73

Louisiana 8.08 8.15 7.95 7.73 7.67 7.20 7.52 7.40 7.69 7.91 7.92 8.16 7.78

Maine 12.72 12.51 11.60 11.31 11.33 10.74 11.31 11.13 11.32 11.19 11.57 11.84 11.55

Maryland 10.67 10.71 10.36 10.46 10.25 10.62 10.45 10.44 10.51 10.54 9.79 10.35 10.43

Massachusetts 13.67 13.90 14.05 13.28 13.68 14.27 14.17 13.59 14.12 13.05 13.32 14.90 13.83

Michigan 10.35 10.67 10.70 10.52 11.29 11.10 11.58 11.05 11.08 10.90 10.85 10.87 10.91

Minnesota 8.26 8.42 8.60 8.44 8.59 9.25 9.18 9.44 9.50 8.93 8.66 8.61 8.82

Mississippi 9.55 9.57 9.62 9.22 9.16 9.26 9.29 9.16 9.13 9.20 9.45 9.53 9.35

Missouri 7.25 7.37 7.40 7.43 8.67 9.54 9.46 9.50 8.41 7.55 7.40 7.40 8.12

Montana 8.89 8.95 9.05 9.04 9.17 9.10 9.12 9.15 9.21 9.37 9.31 9.20 9.13

Nebraska 7.80 7.91 8.11 8.01 8.07 8.71 9.12 8.90 9.08 8.52 7.98 8.02 8.35

Nevada 8.65 9.27 8.73 9.06 8.83 8.60 8.75 8.72 8.89 8.90 8.78 8.94 8.84

New Hampshire 13.59 13.53 13.46 13.44 13.40 13.34 13.32 13.09 13.18 13.21 13.40 13.46 13.37

New Jersey 12.85 12.54 12.29 12.19 12.72 13.56 13.65 13.47 13.09 12.13 12.31 11.98 12.73

New Mexico 8.68 8.97 8.83 8.52 8.93 9.79 10.04 10.15 9.69 9.41 8.93 9.39 9.28

New York 14.44 14.25 14.30 14.53 14.61 15.93 16.46 15.31 16.22 15.14 14.25 14.48 14.99

North Carolina 8.35 8.67 8.72 8.40 8.53 8.64 9.06 8.84 8.90 8.78 8.36 8.56 8.65

North Dakota 7.07 7.60 7.77 7.95 7.92 8.70 8.30 8.62 8.61 8.14 8.00 7.78 8.04

Ohio 9.52 9.68 9.49 9.59 9.43 9.28 9.33 9.37 9.54 9.59 9.59 9.33 9.48

Oklahoma 7.18 7.42 7.14 6.93 7.15 7.54 7.47 7.92 7.72 7.31 6.88 6.88 7.30

Oregon 8.20 8.22 8.31 8.42 8.47 8.35 8.28 8.19 8.33 8.40 8.47 8.13 8.31

Pennsylvania 9.54 9.57 9.48 9.49 9.51 9.28 9.34 9.33 9.32 9.34 9.55 9.54 9.44

Rhode Island 12.97 13.15 12.59 11.03 11.68 12.13 11.63 11.20 11.44 11.01 11.23 12.57 11.89

South Carolina 9.28 9.54 9.51 9.33 9.19 9.96 9.87 9.87 9.84 9.30 9.95 9.75 9.62

South Dakota 7.75 7.85 7.89 8.02 8.15 8.21 8.36 8.39 8.51 8.24 7.95 7.76 8.09

Tennessee 10.15 10.02 10.09 10.08 10.22 10.47 10.48 10.21 10.42 10.23 10.45 10.82 10.30

Texas 8.41 8.51 8.27 8.18 8.09 8.15 8.08 8.15 8.14 8.06 7.96 7.97 8.16

Utah 7.37 7.73 7.57 7.82 8.50 8.84 8.29 8.16 8.57 8.28 7.72 7.49 8.03

Vermont 14.22 14.24 14.26 14.73 14.63 14.42 14.58 14.22 14.27 14.62 13.75 13.86 14.32

Virginia 8.16 8.29 8.32 8.18 8.38 8.29 8.03 7.87 7.93 7.85 7.89 7.81 8.08

Washington 7.66 7.73 7.75 7.68 7.56 7.59 7.58 7.58 7.63 7.70 7.87 7.76 7.67

West Virginia 8.23 8.46 8.60 8.51 8.71 8.01 8.49 8.04 8.57 8.70 8.59 8.27 8.43

Wisconsin 10.28 10.36 10.41 10.40 10.53 10.64 10.78 10.80 10.90 10.49 10.46 9.95 10.50

Wyoming 7.79 7.97 8.08 8.28 8.37 8.34 8.23 8.25 8.43 8.59 8.49 8.15 8.25



### Tabl e 8C

- 3.3 shows the residential electricity prices for each geographic area in 2013$

. Table 8C

- 3.4 shows the commercial electricity prices for each geographic area in 2013$

.8C

- 5



### Table 8C

- 3.3 2012 Average Residential Electricity Prices by Region

, in 2013$

Geographic Area 2013$/kWh

1 Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,

Vermont 0.17

2 Massachusetts 0.15

3 New York 0.18

4 New Jersey 0.16

5 Pennsylvania 0.13

6 Illinois 0.12

7 Indiana, Ohio 0.12

8 Michigan 0.14

9 Wisconsin 0.13

10 Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota 0.11

11 Kansas, Nebraska 0.11

12 Missouri 0.10

13 Virginia 0.11

14 Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland 0.13

15 Georgia 0.11

16 North Carolina, South Carolina 0.11

17 Florida 0.12

18 Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi 0.11

19 Tennessee 0.10

20 Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma 0.09

21 Texas 0.11

22 Colorado 0.12

23 Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming 0.10

24 Arizona 0.11

25 Nevada, New Mexico 0.12

26 California 0.15

27 Oregon, Washington 0.09

28 Alaska 0.18

29 Hawaii 0.38

30 West Virginia 0.10

31 U.S. Average 0.128C

- 6



### Table 8C

- 3.4 2012 Average Commercial Electricity Prices by Region

, in 2013$

Geographic Area 2013$/kWh

1 New England 0.14

2 Middle Atlantic 0.13

3 East North Central 0.10

4 West North Central 0.09

5 South Atlantic 0.09

6 East South Central 0.10

7 West South Central 0.08

8 Mountain 0.09

9 Pacific 0.13

10 U.S. Average 0.11



### 8C

- 3.2 Monthly E lectricity Price Factors

Because portable ACs are used in some months (generally summer) more than in others,

DOE wanted to capture any changes in monthly electricity prices. DOE developed monthly

e lectricity price factors to capture robust seasonal trends in monthly prices. DOE developed the

monthly electricity price factors and used monthly electricity consumption data in calculating the

LCC and payback period.

8C

- 3.2.1 Monthly Residential Electricity Price Factor s

DOE collected historical electricity prices from 199 3 to 201 2 from EIA ’ s Form 826. 4



### Th o se data , which are published annuall y

, include annual electricity sales ; revenues from

electricity sales ; and average price s for the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation

sectors by s tate

.

T o illustrate DOE ’ s method for producing residential monthly price factors, Table 8C

3.5

, Table 8C

- 3.6 , and Figure 8C

- 3.1 show the development of average monthly electricity price

factors, based on historic al electricity price data

, for New York State

. DOE followed similar

steps in developing electricity price factors for the other 29 geographic areas.

Table 8C

- 3.5 shows the average residential electricity prices for New York

.8C

- 7



### Table 8C

- 3.5 Average Residential Electricity Prices for New York

, 1990

– 2011

(nominal cents/kWh) , 2012$

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Au g Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg

1990 10.71 11.12 11.19 11.02 11.31 11.64 11.80 11.89 11.98 11.71 11.62 11.48 11.46

1991 11.48 11.44 11.63 11.58 11.82 12.41 12.38 12.63 12.57 12.02 11.84 11.77 11.96

1992 11.43 11.42 11.49 11.60 12.21 13.09 13.31 13.46 13.46 12.95 12.71 12.55 12.47

1993 12.17 12.14 12.35 12.71 13.35 13.93 13.94 13.92 13.90 13.28 13.35 13.10 13.18

1994 12.92 12.74 13.01 13.19 13.61 14.11 14.19 14.30 14.37 13.43 13.50 13.15 13.54

1995 13.16 13.11 13.34 13.54 14.06 14.63 14.69 14.58 14.51 13.76 13.81 13.50 13.89

1996 13.39 13.46 13.71 13.80 14.00 14.54 14.67 14.78 14.59 13.97 13.83 13.75 14.04

1997 13.75 13.67 13.83 13.69 13.84 14.70 14.80 14.68 14.56 14.01 13.93 13.84 14.11

1998 13.87 13.73 13.77 13.84 14.05 13.78 13.78 13.65 13.66 13.29 13.04 12.92 13.62

1999 12.85 12.75 12.95 13.34 12.85 13.44 13.44 13.54 13.74 13.64 13.44 13.24 13.27

2000 12.90 13.18 13.33 13.52 13.54 14.22 15.40 14.77 14.52 14.12 13.94 13.98 13.95

2001 13.89 13.93 13.58 13.44 14.01 14.41 14.99 14.61 14.23 14.22 13.53 13.25 14.01

2002 12.95 13.00 12.81 12.69 13.30 14.01 14.19 14.16 14.42 13.87 13.37 13.19 13.50

2003 12.77 13.30 13.91 14.55 14.77 14.98 15.14 14.94 14.92 14.75 14.23 13.63 14.32

2004 13.32 14.02 13.98 14.03 14.20 14.99 15.36 15.32 15.10 14.93 14.88 14.29 14.53

2005 14.05 14.53 14.40 14.64 15.36 15.58 15.63 16.16 16.69 17.36 17.57 16.53 15.71

2006 16.61 16.66 15.89 16.36 16.56 17.33 17.56 17.74 17.92 17.22 16.33 15.88 16.84

2007 16.09 15.89 16.83 17.14 17.50 18.17 17.27 17.96 17.15 17.48 16.94 16.66 17.09

2008 16.86 17.31 16.92 18.08 18.79 19.42 19.66 20.93 19.49 17.57 16.95 16.61 18.22

2009 16.83 16.72 16.40 16.57 16.86 18.22 18.79 18.21 18.75 18.12 16.72 17.47 17.47

2010 17.29 18.04 17.55 18.92 19.21 19.41 20.11 19.35 20.09 18.36 18.25 17.72 18.69

2011 17.25 17.45 17.58 17.63 18.30 19.07 19.22 19.25 18.84 18.78 17.93 17.26 18.21



### To calculate monthly energy price factors , DOE then divid ed the monthly prices by the

annual average for each year. Table 8C

- 3.6 and Figure 8C

- 3.1 sh ow the calculated results for

New York State

.8C

- 8



### Table 8C

- 3.6 Monthly Electricity Price Factors for New York

, 1990

– 2011

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1990 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.02 1.01 1.00

1991 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.99 1.04 1.03 1.06 1.05 1.00 0.99 0.98

1992 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.98 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.04 1.02 1.01

1993 0.92 0.92 0.94 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.01 1.01 0.99

1994 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.97 1.00 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 0.99 1.00 0.97

1995 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.06 1.05 1.04 0.99 0.99 0.97

1996 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.99 0.98 0.98

1997 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.98 1.04 1.05 1.04 1.03 0.99 0.99 0.98

1998 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.95

1999 0.97 0.96 0.98 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.01 1.00

2000 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.97 1.02 1.10 1.06 1.04 1.01 1.00 1.00

2001 0.99 0.99 0.97 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.04 1.02 1.02 0.97 0.95

2002 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.99 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.03 0.99 0.98

2003 0.89 0.93 0.97 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.04 1.04 1.03 0.99 0.95

2004 0.92 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.03 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 0.98

2005 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.03 1.06 1.11 1.12 1.05

2006 0.99 0.99 0.94 0.97 0.98 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.02 0.97 0.94

2007 0.94 0.93 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.06 1.01 1.05 1.00 1.02 0.99 0.97

2008 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.08 1.15 1.07 0.96 0.93 0.91

2009 0.96 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.97 1.04 1.08 1.04 1.07 1.04 0.96 1.00

2010 0.93 0.97 0.94 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.08 1.04 1.07 0.98 0.98 0.95

2011 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 1.00 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.03 1.03 0.98 0.958C

- 9



### Figure 8C

- 3.1 Monthly E lectricity Price Factors for New York , 1990

– 2011

DOE then averaged the monthly e lectricity price factors for 199 3

– 201 2 to develop an

average e lectricity price factor for each month. DOE performed the same calculations for all 30

geographic region s to develop the monthly energy price factors shown in Table 8C

- 3.7

, which

include s the results for New York

.

Table 8C

- 3.7 Monthly Residential Electricity Price Factors

Geographic Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Connecticut, Maine,

New Hampshire, Rhode

Island, Vermont 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99

Massachusetts 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.03 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.01 0.99 1.01

New York 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.02 0.99 0.97

New Jersey 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.98 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.06 0.97 0.97 0.97

Pennsylvania 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.07 1.06 1.04 1.02 0.98 0.95

Illinois 0.89 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.05 1.07 1.06 1.04 1.05 1.06 0.97 0.91

Indiana, Ohio 0.90 0.92 0.95 1.02 1.05 1.06 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.01 0.94

Michigan 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.02 0.99 0.98 0.99

Wisconsin 0.96 0.99 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.00 0.98

Iowa, Minnesota, North

Dakota, South Dakota 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.98 1.03 1.07 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.02 0.97 0.94

Kansas, Nebraska 0.87 0.91 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.10 1.00 0.96 0.91

Missouri 0.84 0.86 0.90 0.96 1.08 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.06 0.98 0.94 0.87

Virginia 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.99 1.04 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.04 1.02 0.98 0.93 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Electricity Price Factors 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995

1996 1997 1998

1999 2000 2001

2002 2003 2004

2005 2006 2007

2008 2009 2010

20118 C

- 10

Geographic Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Delaware, District of

Columbia, Maryland 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.94 1.03 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.08 1.00 0.95 0.93

Georgia 0.90 0.93 0.96 0.97 1.01 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.06 1.00 0.95 0.91

North Carolina, South

Carolina 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.01 0.97

Florida 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.00

Alabama, Kentucky,

Mississippi 0.92 0.94 0.97 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.01 0.96

Tennessee 0.96 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.04 1.03 1.01

Arkansas, Louisiana,

Oklahoma 0.90 0.93 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.04 0.99 0.93

Texas 0.92 0.93 0.97 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.04 0.98 0.96

Colorado 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.00 0.97

Idaho, Montana, Utah,

Wyoming 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.02 0.99 0.98

Arizona 0.88 0.91 0.93 0.98 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.06 0.94 0.95

Nevada, New Mexico 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.03 1.02 0.99

California 1.00 0.97 0.97 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.05 1.05 1.01 0.96 1.00 1.01

Oregon, Washington 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02

Alaska 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.02 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99

Hawaii 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.02

West Virginia 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.05 1.02 0.97

United States 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.04 1.02 0.99 0.96



### 8C

- 3.2.2 Monthly Commercial Electricity Price Factor s

DOE collected historical electricity prices f or 199 3

– 201 2 from EIA ’ s Form 826. 4 

### The

data , which are published annually

, include annual electricity sales ; revenues from electricity

sales ; and average price for the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation se ctors by

s tate . DOE aggregated the data and developed electricity price factors for the nine census

divisions, as shown in Table 8C

- 3.8

.

Table 8C

- 3.8 Monthly Commercial Electricity Price Factors

Census

Division Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

New England 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.98 0.97 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.00 0.97 1.00

Middle Atlantic 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.99 1.05 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.01 0.97 0.96

East North Central 0.95 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 0.99 0.97

West North Central 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 1.02 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.05 0.96 0.95 0.93

South Atlantic 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99

East South Central 0.97 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01

West South Central 0.98 1.00 1.01 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.00 1.01 0.99 0.98

Mountain 0.95 0.97 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 0.99 0.97

Pacific 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.97 1.06 1.11 1.10 1.08 1.05 0.99 0.94

United States 0.95 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.99 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.02 0.98 0.978C

- 11



### 8C

- 3.3 Seasonal Marginal Price Factors for Electricity

Marginal energy prices are the prices consumers pay for the last unit of energy

consumed . DOE used the marginal energy prices for each RECS or CBECS building in its

sample to calculate the cost of saved energy associated with the use of a higher

- efficiency

portable AC

. Because marginal prices reflect a change in a consumer ’ s bill associated with a

change in energy consumed, such prices are appropriate for determining energy cost savings

associated with po tential new energy conservation standards.

EIA provides historical monthly energy consumption and expenditures by state. 3 

### DOE

used t he data to determine 10

- year average marginal electricity prices for the geographic areas in

RECS 2009 , which then were used to convert average monthly e lectricity prices into marginal

monthly prices. Although a portable AC operates primarily during the cooling season, for

comparison DOE determined marginal price factors for both summer and winter. The EIA

provided RECS 2009 billing data that had been gathered from a subset of RECS housing records.

For each household that provided billing data, the following are available for each billing cycle:

the start and end date, the electricity consumption in kWh, and the electricity cost in dollars. T h e

data for electricity w ere used to validate marginal e lectricity price factors by RECS 2009

geographic area.

DOE interpreted the slope of the regression line (consumption v ersus expenditures) for

each state as th e marginal e lectricity price for that state. Table 8C

- 3.9 and Table 8C

- 3.10 show

the resulting marginal electricity price fa ctors for residential and commercial buildings.8C

- 12



### Table 8C

- 3.9 Seasonal Residential Marginal Electricity Price Factors Based on Data

for 200 3

- 2 012 *

Geographic Area Summer Winter

Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,

Vermont 0.95 1.00

Massachusetts 0.96 1.04

New York 1.13 0.87

New Jersey 1.21 0.98

Pennsylvania 1.08 0.83

Illinois 0.98 0.72

Indiana, Ohio 1.00 0.75

Michigan 1.14 0.97

Wisconsin 1.01 0.89

Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota 1.07 0.84

Kansas, Nebraska 1.16 0.74

Missouri 1.21 0.76

Virginia 1.08 0.85

Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland 1.16 0.91

Georgia 1.16 0.84

North Carolina, South Carolina 0.97 0.83

Florida 1.01 0.93

Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi 1.00 0.82

Tennessee 0.93 0.84

Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma 1.04 0.74

Texas 1.05 0.90

Colorado 1.08 0.79

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming 1.11 0.94

Arizona 1.05 0.84

Nevada, New Mexico 1.04 0.88

California 1.21 1.13

Oregon, Washington 0.88 0.95

Alaska 0.85 0.91

Hawaii 1.46 0.89

West Virginia 0.92 0.84

United States 1.07 0.81

* Source: U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. 2012 State Energy Consumption, Price,

and Expenditure Estimates (SEDS)

.8C

- 13



### Table 8C

- 3.10 Seasonal Commercial Marginal Electricity Price Factors Based on Data

for 200 3

- 201 2

C ensus Division 

### Summer Winter

New England 1.14 0.88

Middle Atlantic 1.44 0.86

East North Central 1.10 0.73

West North Central 1.57 0.66

South Atlantic 1.09 0.89

East South Central 1.03 0.76

West South Central 1.16 0.72

Mountain 1.14 1.07

Pacific 1.57 0.85

United States 1.34 0.80

* Source: U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. Form EIA

- 826 Database Monthly

Electric Utility Sales and Revenue Data.



### 8C

- 3.4 Results

DOE applied the marginal price factors it developed to the monthly residential and

commercial e lectricity price s to de rive marginal residential and commercial monthly prices for

electricity in 2012

. ( See Table 8C

- 3.11 and Table 8C

- 3.12

. )8C

- 14



### Table 8C

- 3.11 Residential Marginal Monthly Electricity Prices for 201 2 Using Marginal

Price Factors (201 3 $/ k Wh )

Geographic Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Connecticut, Maine,

New Hampshire, Rhode

Island, Vermont 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

Massachusetts 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16

New York 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.15 0.15

New Jersey 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.15 0.15

Pennsylvania 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.11 0.10

Illinois 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.08 0.08

Indiana, Ohio 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.08

Michigan 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.14

Wisconsin 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.12

Iowa, Minnesota, North

Dakota, South Dakota 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.09

Kansas, Nebraska 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.08 0.07

Missouri 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.07 0.07

Virginia 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.09

Delaware, District of

Columbia, Maryland 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.11 0.11

Georgia 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.09 0.09

North Carolina, South

Carolina 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.09 0.09

Florida 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11

Alabama, Kentucky,

Mississippi 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.08

Tennessee 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09

Arkansas, Louisiana,

Oklahoma 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.06

Texas 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.10

Colorado 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.09

Idaho, Montana, Utah,

Wyoming 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.09

Arizona 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.09

Nevada, New Mexico 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.10

California 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18

Oregon, Washington 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09

Alaska 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.16

Hawaii 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.35 0.35

West Virginia 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.08

United States 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.098C

- 15



### Table 8C

- 3.12 Commercial Marginal Monthly Electricity Prices for 201 2 Using

Marginal Price Factors (201 3 $/ k Wh )

Census

Division Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

New England 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.12 0.12

Middle Atlantic 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.11 0.11

East North Central 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.07 0.07

West North Central 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.05 0.05

South Atlantic 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.08

East South Central 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.08

West South Central 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.06

Mountain 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.09

Pacific 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.11 0.10

United States 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.08 0.08



### 8C

- 4 HOUSEHOLD ENERGY PRI CE ADJUSTMENT FACTOR

RECS 2009 reports the total annual household consumption and expenditure for each

type of energy use d

. From those data DOE determined average electricity prices for each

geographic region

. To account for the fact that household energy prices may differ within a

geographic region , DOE developed an adjustment factor based on the reported average

electricity price in RECS 2009 divided by the average price within the geographic region. This

factor was then multiplied times the monthly marginal electricity prices or the monthly price

developed above to obtain a household electricity price for each month.

8C

- 5 E LECTRICITY PRICE TRENDS

This section describes electricity price trends expected to affect both residential and

commercial purchasers of portable ACs

.

8C

- 5.1 Residential Electricity Price Trends

DOE us ed Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO 2014 ) 6 

### Reference Case scenarios to

evaluate electricity price trends for households in the nine census divisions

. DOE applied the

projected electricity price for ea ch census division to each household in DOE ’ s sample for

portable ACs based on the hous ehold ’ s location.

To arrive at future electricity prices, DOE multiplied the prices obtained as described

above by the forecast of annual average price changes in the EIA ’ s AEO 2014

. Figure 8C

- 5.1

shows the national residential electricity price trend. To estimate the trend after 20 40 , DOE

followed past guidelines the EIA provided to the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP)

, applying the average rate of change during 202 5

– 20 40 to future prices for electricity.8C

- 16



### Figure 8C

- 5.1 Projected Nationwide Residential Electricity Price s

Figure 8C

- 5.2 shows the residential national electricity price trends, disaggregated into

the nine census divisions.

Figure 8C

- 5.2 Projected Residential Electricity Prices by Census Division

8C

- 5.2 Commercial Energy Price Trends

DOE applied the same methodology used for residential applications to project energy

price trends for each building in the commercial sample, based on the building ’ s location within

the nine census divisions

. To arrive at prices in future years, DO E multiplied the prices derived

above by the forecast of annual average price changes in EIA ’ s AEO 2014

. Figure 8C

- 5.3 shows8C

- 17



### the national electricity price trend fo r the commercial sector . To estimate the trend after 20 40

, DOE followed past guidelines the EIA provided to FEMP , applying the average rate of change

during 202 5

– 20 40 to future prices for electricity.

Figure 8C

- 5.3 Projected Nationwide Commercial Electricity Price s

Figure 8C

- 5.4 shows the national commercial electricity price trends, disaggregated into

the nine census divisions.

Figure 8C

- 5.4 Projected Commercial Electricity Prices b y Census Division8C

- 18



### REFERENCES

1 U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. Residential Energy

Consumption Survey:2009 RECS Survey Data. 2009. (Last accessed September 8, 2014.)

< http:/ / www.eia.gov/ consumption/ residential/ data/ 2009/ >

.



### 2 U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. Commercial Buildings

Energy Consumption Survey. 2003. (Last accessed September 8, 2014.)

< http:/ / www.eia.gov/ consumption/ commercial/ data/ 2003/ >

.

3 U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. 2012 State Energy

Consumption, Price, and Expenditure Estimates (SEDS). 2013. Washington, D.C. (Last

accessed September 12, 2014.)

< http:/ / www.eia.doe.gov/ emeu/ states/ _seds.html >

.

4

. U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Ad ministration

. Form EIA

- 826 Detailed

Data : Electricity. 2013. (Last accessed September 12, 2014.)

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/eia826.html >

.

5

. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index History Table

. (Last accessed

September 12, 2014.) < http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ >.

6

. U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration

. Annual Energy Outlook

2014 with Projections to 2040

. May 2014. Washington, D

. C. (Last accessed September

12, 2014.) < http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/ >

.