Inventory, Reasonable Further Progress Plan, Contingency Measures, Reasonably

Available Control Measures, and Transportation Conformity Budgets for thePennsylvania Portion ofthe Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 1997 8-Hour

Ozone Moderate Nonattainment Area

-11J

FROM: Brian Rehn, Environmental Engineer

Office of Air Program Planning

TO: File

THRU: Maria A. Pino, Acting Associate Director

Office of Air Program Planning

This document provides a technical review of a revision to the Pennsylvania State

Implementation Plan (SIP) submitted by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental

Protection (PA DEP) on August 29, 2007 to address emissions inventory, reasonable further

progress (RFP), reasonably available control measures (RACM) analysis, and contingencymeasure requirements under the 1997 8-hour ozone national ambient air quality standard

(NAAQS) for the Pennsylvania portion ofthe Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ

DE-MD moderate nonattainment area (hereafter referred to as the “Philadelphia-Wilmington

Atlantic City ozone nonattainment area” or as the “Philadelphia area”). This SIP revision also

establishes a motor vehicle emissions budget (MVEB) for 2008 for the Pennsylvania portion of

the Philadelphia moderate nonattainment area.

On December 10, 2009, PA DEP submitted two SIP revisions to the August 29, 2007 SIP

revision to address errors identified in the stationary point source portion of the 2002 base year

emissions inventory ofthe August 2007 plan. The first makes minor corrections to thestationary, area, and nonroad emissions categories of the 2002 base year emissions inventory.

These revisions to the 2002 base year emission inventory also affected the calculations for theRFP demonstration submitted as part of the August 27, 2007 SIP revision. The second ofthe

two December 10, 2009 SIP revisions contains a revised RFP demonstration that supersedes the

RFP demonstration submitted as part ofthe August 2007 SIP revision. Pennsylvania’s August2007 SIP revision submittal, entitled “Attainment Demonstration and Base Year Inventory:Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia Counties located in the Philadelphia

Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-DE-MD Eight Hour Nonattainment Area” (as amended by theDecember 10, 2009 and April 12, 2010 SIP revisions) is also referred to in this document as the

“Philadelphia 8-hour ozone plan.”
I. General Requirements

Section 182 of the Clean Air Act (CAA) and the Environmental Protection Agency’s

(EPA’s) 1997 8-hour ozone regulations (40 CFR 51.910) require each moderate and above

8-hour ozone nonattainment area to submit an emissions inventory and RFP SIP revision that

describes how the area will achieve actual emissions reductions of volatile organic compounds(VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from a baseline emissions inventory. An emissions inventory

is an estimation of actual emissions of air pollutants in an area. The emissions inventory for anozone nonattainment area contains VOC and NOx emissions, which are precursors to ozoneformation. In this case, a “baseline” emissions inventory is required for the year 2002.

Pursuant to section 1 72(c)( 1) of the CAA, states are required to submit plans for

nonattainment areas that provide for the implement of all reasonably available control measures

(RACM) as expeditiously as practicable. Specifically, section 1 72(c)( 1) states the following:

“Such plan provisions shall provide for the implementation of all reasonably available control

measures as expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions from existing

sources in the area as may be obtained through the adoption, at a minimum, of reasonablyavailable control technology) and shall provide for attainment of the national primary ambient air

quality standards.” Control measures that would advance the attainment date are consideredRACM and must be included in the SIP. RACM are necessary to ensure that the attainment dateis achieved “as expeditious as practicable.”

Phase 1 ofthe 8-hour ozone implementation rule, published on April 30, 2004 (69 FR

23951), set out criteria for classifying nonattainment areas under the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.The Phase 1 rule also addressed revocation ofthe 1-hour NAAQS; how anti-backsliding.

principles will ensure continued progress toward attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS;

attainment dates; and the timing of emissions reductions needed for attainment. On November

29, 2005, EPA published the Phase 2 final rule for implementation ofthe 8-hour standard. The

Phase 2 rule addressed the RFP control and planning obligations as they apply to areasdesignated nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS (70 FR 71612). The Phase 2 final

rule was revised on June 8, 2007 (72 FR 31727). Among other things, the Phase 1 and 2 rules

outline the SIP requirements and deadlines for various requirements in areas designated as

moderate nonattainment. The rules set a due date ofJune 15, 2007 for the required base year

emission inventory, RFP plan, modeling and attainment demonstration, RACM, MVEB, and

contingency measures (40 CFR 51.908(a), (c)).

Section 182(b)(l) of the CAA and EPA’s 1997 8-hour ozone implementation rule (40

CFR 51.910) require each 8-hour ozone nonattainment area designated moderate and above to

2
Table 1. RFP Requirements for Moderate 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas with

Attainment Dates More than 5 Years after Designation

Area Requirement 40 CFR ReferenceWith approved 15% 15% VOC and/or NOx reductions 51.910(a)(1)(iii)(B)(2) &VOC ROP plan (2002 —2008) 51.910(b)(2)(b)(ii)Without approved 15% VOC reductions (2002 -2008). 51.910(a)(l)(iii)(B)(1)

15% VOC ROP plan The reductions may come from

anywhere within the 8-hour

nonattainment area.

In addition, RFP plans must include contingency measures, which are additional controls

that would be implemented ifthe area fails to make reasonable further progress. See CAA

section 172(c)(9). Implementation of these measures would provide additional emissions

reductions of up to 3 percent ofthe adjusted base year inventory (or lesser percentage that will

make up the identified shortfall). RFP plans must also include a MVEB, which is the allowable

level of on-road mobile emissions an area can produce and continue to demonstrate RFP. 40

CFR 93.

II. The Philadelphia Area

In 1997, EPA revised the health-based NAAQS for ozone, setting it at 0.08 parts per

million (ppm) averaged over an 8-hour time frame. EPA set the 8-hour ozone standard based on

scientific evidence demonstrating that ozone causes adverse health effects at lower ozoneconcentrations and over longer periods of time, than was understood when the pre-existing

1-hour ozone standard was set. EPA determined that the 8-hour standard would be more

protective of human health, especially children and adults who are active outdoors, and

individuals with a pre-existing respiratory disease, such as asthma.

On April 30, 2004 (69 FR 23951), EPA finalized its attainment/nonattainment

designations for areas across the country with respect to the 8-hour ozone standard. Theseactions became effective on June 15, 2004. Among those nonattainment areas is the

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-DE-MD moderate nonattainment area (NAA).This multistate NAA includes five Pennsylvania counties — Bucks, Chester, Delaware,Montgomery, and Philadelphia.

Pursuant to Phase 1 ofthe 8-hour ozone implementation rule, an area was classified

under Subpart 2 ofthe CAA based on its 8-hour design value ifthat area had a 1-hour design

3
An emissions inventory is a comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual

emissions from all sources. The emissions inventory is required by section 172(c)(3) ofthe

CAA. For ozone nonattainment areas, the emissions inventory needs to contain VOC and NOxemissions because these pollutants are precursors of ozone. EPA recommended 2002 as the base

year emissions inventory, and is therefore the starting point for calculating RFP. Pennsylvania

submitted its 2002 base year emissions inventory for the Pennsylvania portion ofthe

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA on August 29, 2007. On December 10, 2009,

Pennsylvania submitted a correction to that 2002 base year emissions inventory to correct errorsthat were identified with the August 2007 submission with respect to stationary point source

values (due to facilities being counted multiple times as a result of facility name changes).Pennsylvania subsequently submitted a revision on April 12, 2010, to replace the 2002 base yearinventory point source emission values appendix (Appendix B-2 of the August 2007 submission)

with these revised point source values. This revised Appendix B2 fully supersedes that

submitted as part of the August 2007 SIP revision.

A summary ofthe 2002 base year VOC and NOx emissions inventory for the

Pennsylvania portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA is included in Table 2,

below.

Table 2. Pennsylvania Portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA

2002 Base Year VOC & NOx Emissions in Tons per Day (tpd)

Emission Source Category VOC NOx

Point 22.21 59.63

Stationary Area 149.84 14.64

Non-Road Mobile 79.06 70.95

On-Road Mobile 98.76 184.66

Total (excluding Biogenics) 349.87 329.88

Pennsylvania discusses its 2002 base year inventory for the Pennsylvania portion of the

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA in Section VI of Pennsylvania’s 8-hour ozone plan

for the NAA. Appendices B-F of the Philadelphia 8-hour ozone plan contains Pennsylvania’s

2002 base year inventory for their portion of the nonattainment area. EPA Region 3’s Air

Quality Analysis Branch (AQAB) reviewed Pennsylvania’s 2002 base year inventory for thePennsylvania portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA using the appropriateEPA policy and guidance. Please see the attached “Technical Support Document (TSD) for the

Baltimore Nonattainment Area: 8 Hour Ozone State Implementation Plan (SIP) Attainment

Demonstration and Base Year Inventory,” prepared by Alice H. Chow and signed by Walter

Wilkie, Air Quality Analysis Branch Chief, on May 5, 2010 (Philadelphia Emission Inventory

4
has been determined to be the 2002 adjusted base year inventory. Sections 182(b)(1)(B) and (D)require the exclusion from the base year inventory of emissions benefits resulting from the

Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP) regulations promulgated by January 1, 1990

and the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) regulations promulgated June 11, 1990 (55 FR 23666). The

FMVCP and RVP emissions reductions are determined by the state using most recent version ofEPA’s on-road mobile source emissions modeling software (which at that time these plans were

prepared was MOBILE6). The FMVCP and RVP emission reductions are then removed from

the base year inventory by the state, resulting in an adjusted base year inventory. The emission

reductions needed to satisfy the RFP requirement are then calculated from the adjusted base year

inventory. These reductions are then subtracted from the adjusted base year inventory to

establish the emissions target for the RFP milestone year (2008).

For moderate areas like the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA, the CAA

specifies a 15 percent reduction in ozone precursor emissions over an initial 6-year period. In the

Phase 2 Implementation Rule (70 FR 71612), EPA interpreted this requirement for areas that

were also designated nonattainment and classified as moderate or higher for the 1-hour ozone

standard. In the Phase 2 Rule, EPA provided that an area classified as moderate or higher that

has the same boundaries as an area, or is entirely composed ofseveral areas or portions of areas,

for which EPA fully approved a 15 percent plan for the 1-hour NAAQS, is considered to have

met the requirements ofsection 1 82(b)( 1) of the CAA for the 8-hour NAAQS. In this situation, amoderate nonattainment area is subject to RFP under section 172(c)(2) of the CAA and shall

submit, no later than 3 years after designation for the 8-hour NAAQS, a SIP revision that meets

the requirements of 40 CFR 51.91 0(b)(2). The RFP SIP revision must provide for a 15 percent

emission reduction (either NOx and/or VOC) accounting for any growth that occurs during the 6-

year period following the baseline emissions inventory year, that is, 2002-2008.

The Pennsylvania portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City ozone

nonattainment area under the 1997 8-hour ozone standard has the same boundary as the as thePhiladelphia-Wilmington-Trenton NAA under the prior 1-hour ozone standard. Under the 1-

hour ozone standard, the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton nonattainment area was classified as

severe. On September 12, 1996 (later amended on April 10, 1997 and June 5, 1998),

Pennsylvania submitted a 15% Plan SIP revision for the Pennsylvania portion of thePhiladelphia-Wilmington-Trenton 1-hour ozone nonattainment area. On August 24, 2001, EPA

fully approved Pennsylvania’s 15% plan for the Commonwealth’s portion of the Philadelphia

Wilmington-Trenton 1-hour severe ozone NAA (66 FR 44547). Therefore, according to the

Phase 2 Rule, the RFP plan for the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 8-hour ozone NAA

may use either NOx or VOC emissions reductions (or both) to achieve the required 15 percent

emission reduction.

5
all 2002 control programs in place.

B) Using the same highway vehicle activity inputs used to calculate the actual 2002 inventory,

run the appropriate motor vehicle emissions model for 2002 and for 2008 with all post-1990

CAA measures turned off. Any other local inputs for vehicle inspection and maintenance

(JIM) programs should be set according to the program that was required to be in place in

1990. Fuel RVP should be set at 9.0 or 7.8 depending on the RVP required in the local area

as a result of fuel RVP regulations promulgated in June 1990.

C) Calculate the difference between 2002 and 2008 VOC emissions factors calculated in Step B

and multiply by 2002 VMT. The result is the VOC emissions reductions that will occur

between 2002 and 2008 without the benefits of any post-1990 CAA measures. These are the

non-creditable VOC reductions that occur over this period. Calculate the difference between

2002 and 2008 NOx emissions factors calculated in Step B and multiply by 2002 VMT. This

result is the NOx emissions reductions that will occur between 2002 and 2008 without the

benefits of any post-1990 CAA measures. These are the non-creditable NOx reductions that

occur over this period.

D) Subtract the non-creditable VOC reductions calculated in Step C from the actual

anthropogenic 2002 VOC inventory estimated in Step A. Subtract the non-creditable NOx

reductions calculated in Step C from the actual anthropogenic 2002 NOx inventory estimated

in Step A. Theseadjusted VOC and NOx inventories are the basis for calculating the target

level of emissions in 2008.

E) The target level of VOC and NOx emissions in 2008 needed to meet the 2008 ROP

requirement is any combination of VOC and NOx reductions from the adjusted inventories

calculated in Step D that total 18 percent. For example, the target level of VOC emissions in

2008 could be a 10 percent reduction from the adjusted.

Pennsylvania set forth its calculations for the adjusted base year inventory and 2008 RFP targetlevels in Section IV.D ofthe August 2007 Philadelphia 8-hour ozone plan. Pennsylvaniaamended its RFP plan calculations as part of its December 10, 2009 revised RFP Plan SIP (toaccommodate the December 2009 revised 2002 base year stationary source emissions inventory).

Hereafter, when citing the Commonwealth’s RFP calculation, we are referring to the December2009 RFP SIP revision, which contains the “Correction to the RFP Demonstration” document,dated November 2009.

A) The Pennsylvania portion ofthe Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA 2002

6
Non-Road 79.06 70.95

On-Road 98.76 184.66

Total 349.87 329.88

B & C) Pennsylvania calculated the non-creditable emission reductions between 2002 and 2008

by modeling its 2002 and 2008 motor vehicle emissions with all post-1990 CAA measures

“switched off’, and calculating the difference. See Tables 4-4 and 4-5 of Pennsylvania’s

December 2009 corrected RFP plan. The non-creditable reductions are calculated in Table

4, below.

Table 4. Pennsylvania Portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA

Non-Creditable Emission Reductions from 2002-2008 (Ozone Season tad)

Source Category VOC NOx(i) 2002 On-Road (Adjusted) 421.44 370.02(ii) 2008 On-Road (Adjusted) 408.72 354.44

Non-creditable Reductions

12.72 15.58

(1) —_(ii)

D & E) The Commonwealth’s calculation ofits portion ofthe Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic

City NAA 2002 VOC and NOx inventories adjusted relative to 2008 and VOC and NOx

target levels for 2008 are found in Tables 4-6 through 4-8 ofthe December 2009 corrected

RFP plan, and are summarized in Table 5, below.

Table 5. Pennsylvania portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA

2008 RFP Target Level Calculations with NOx Substitution (Ozone Season t d

Description Formula VOC NOx

A 2002 Rate-Of Progress Base Year Inventory 349.87 329.88

B FMVCP/RVP Reductions Between 2002 And 2008 12.72 15.58

C 2002 Adjusted Base Year Inventory Relative To 2008 A -B 337.15 314.30

D RFP Ratio 0.075 0.075

E jEmissions Reductions Required Between 2002 & 2008! C * D 25.29 23.57

F frargetLevelfor2008 I C-E 311.86 290.73

III. Projected Inventories and Determination ofRFP

7
reasonable. Please refer to Pennsylvania’s August 2007 SIP revision for further information

regarding generation of the projection emission inventory.

Projected controlled 2008 emissions for the Pennsylvania counties that are part ofthe

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area are summarized in Table 4-7 ofPennsylvania’s revised RFP plan for the Philadelphia area. The data from Table 4-7 is presentedin Table 6, below.

Table 6. Pennsylvania portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA

2008 Projected Controlled VOC & NOx Emissions (tpd)

Emission Source VOC Emissions NOx Emissions

Category (tpd) (tpd)

Point 21.56 57.13

Area 143.23 15.50

Non-road 62.84 62.67

Mobile 61.09 108.78Total 288.72 244.08

To determine if 2008 RFP is met in the nonattainment area, the total projected controlled

emissions must be compared to the target levels calculated in the previous section of this

document. As shown below in Table 7, the total VOC and NOx emission projections meet the2008 emission targets --based in part on the Commonwealth’s reliance on NOx substitution todemonstrate RFP, in accordance with EPA policy. Therefore, Pennsylvania has properly

calculated RFP for its portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area.

Table 7. Determination of whether RFP is met in 2008 in the Pennsylvania Portion

of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA

VOC Emissions NOx Emissions Description (tpd) (tpd)

A TargetLevelfor2008 311.86 290.73

B 2008 Projected Controlled Emissions 288.72 244.08 (including non-creditable FMVCP)

2008 Projected Controlled Emissions

C (excluding reductions from non-creditable 301.44 259.66

FMVCP)

Is RFP met? Yes Yes

8
Commonwealth’s August 2007 8-hour ozone attainment plan and emission inventory SIP. The

RFP-related 2008 reductions from these measures are listed in Pennsylvania’s December 2009

amended RFP SIP revision for the Philadelphia area. To demonstrate RFP for the Philadelphia

area, Pennsylvania used a combination of(l) stationary point, (2) stationary area, (3) highway

mobile, and (4) non-road mobile source control measures.

(1) Stationary Point Source Measures• NOx SIP Call Rule (Interstate Pollution Transport Reduction)

In response to the Federal NOx SIP call rule, Pennsylvania adopted NOx control regulationsfor large industrial boilers and internal combustion engines, electric generating units, andcement plants. The regulation covering industrial boilers and electric generators required

emission reductions to commence May 1, 2003, while the regulation covering large internal

combustion engines and cement plants required emission reductions to commence May 1,2005. EPA approved this regulation, found in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 145, on September 29,2006 (71 FR 57428).

• Small Sources of NOx, Cement Kilns, & Large Stationary Internal Combustion Engines

Pennsylvania DEP established additional ozone season requirements for small sources of NOxin the Philadelphia nonattainment area via regulations adopted on December 11, 2004. These

rules (25 Pa. Code Chapter 129) apply to certain boilers, turbines, and stationary internal

combustion units. The emission limits are differentiated by fuel type and allow alternativecompliance mechanisms. By November 1st of each year, owners and operators ofthesesources must surrender NOx allowances if actual emissions exceed allowable emissions.

These NOx emission limits were implemented beginning May 1, 2005. EPA approved this

program on September 29, 2006 (71 FR 57428).

• Federal Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants.

Federal Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) standards to control hazardous

air pollutants (HAPs) require controls at major sources of HAPs. EPA issued a series of

regulations for a variety of sources applicable to sources in Pennsylvania. These MACT

standards are incorporated by reference into Pennsylvania’s regulations, and are included in

the Department’s permits for affected sources. EPA has delegated enforcement of the MACT

program to the Department. Pennsylvania incorporated controls with a compliance date of

2002 and earlier in the base year inventory for 2002, while controls with a compliance date of

2003 and later are included in the projection inventory. A list of the categories for which

federal MACT standards have been issued is contained in Appendix D ofthe August 2007

Pennsylvania attainment plan and emission inventory SIP revision.

9
regulation would be fully phased in over a 10-year period (i.e. approximately 10 percent ofthe

existing containers would be replaced each year). Emission reduction estimates for the

program reflect this phased-in replacement of the containers. The regulation was submitted to

EPA as a SIP revision on March 26, 2003 and approved on December 8, 2004 (69 FR 70893).

• Consumer Products Rule

Pennsylvania’s Consumer Products rule applies statewide to any person who sells, supplies,offers for sale, or manufactures subject consumer products after January 1, 2005. It sets VOCstandards, with provisions for exemptions and for innovative products, administrative

requirements, reporting requirements, variances, test methods, and provisions for alternative

control plans. The rule is contained in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 130, Subchapter B. It wassubmitted to EPA as a SIP revision on March 26, 2003 and approved on December 8, 2004(69 FR 70895).

• Architectural and Industrial Maintenance Coatings Rule

Pennsylvania’s Architectural and Industrial Maintenance (AIM) Coatings regulation applies

statewide to any person who supplies, sells, offers for sale, or manufactures, blends or

repackages an AIM coating for use within the Commonwealth, and to any one who applies or

solicits the application of an AIM coating within the Commonwealth. The regulation does not

apply to: (1) Any AIM coating that is sold or manufactured for use outside the Commonwealthor for shipment to other manufacturers for reformulation or repackaging; (2) any aerosolcoating product; or (3) any AIM coating that is sold in a container with a volume of one liter(1.057 quarts) or less. The AIM Coatings regulation sets specific VOC content limits, in

grams per liter, for AIM coatings categories with a compliance date ofJanuary 1, 2005.Manufacturers ensure compliance with set limits by reformulating coatings. The regulation

contains VOC content requirements for a wide variety of field-applied coatings, including

graphic arts coatings, lacquers, primers and stains. There are a number of test methods that

may be used to demonstrate compliance with the AIM Coatings regulation. EPA and South

Coast Air Quality Management District of California have each published test methods for

AIM coating compliance. Pennsylvania’s AIM Coating program requirements are specified in25 Pa. Code Chapter 130, Subchapter C. The final-form regulation was submitted to EPA as

a SIP revision on December 3, 2003, with a supplement submitted on October 19, 2004. EPAapproved the provisions as an element ofthe SIP on November 23, 2004 (69 FR 69080).

10
(LDGTs), beginning in model year 1994. Evaporative VOC emissions were also reduced in

gasoline-powered cars starting with model year 1998.In 1998, under the authority ofsection 177 ofthe CAA, the Department adopted the

Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program. (28 Pa. B. 5873, Dec. 5, 1998.) The Pennsylvania

Clean Vehicles Program incorporates certain California Low Emission Vehicle emissionstandards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks by reference. As required under Section

177 of the CAA. The Commonwealth’s regulation does not incorporate by reference the

California zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) program or emissions control warranty systemsstatement provisions.

In the same rulemaking, Pennsylvania adopted the National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV)

program as a compliance alternative to the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program.

The NLEV program became effective in the Ozone Transport Region in 1999.Pennsylvania’s New Motor Vehicle Emissions Control Program regulations (25 Pa. Code

Subchapter 126.401-126.441) allowed automobile manufacturers to comply with NLEV as a

compliance alternative to the California Low Emission Vehicle (CA LEV) program through

MY 2005. These regulations affected vehicles 6,000 pounds and less and were the

regulations in effect for new motor vehicles in the baseline year, 2002.

In 1999, EPA promulgated more stringent federal regulations (referred to as Tier 2), which

phased in beginning in model year 2004. Pennsylvania’s NLEV commitment extended tomodel year 2006, but the Commonwealth in essence interpreted its regulations such that the

NLEV program was replaced for MY 2004 and later by the more stringent Federal Tier 2

standards, which can be referenced at 65 F.R. 6698 (Feb. 10, 2000), and are codified at 40CFR Part 86..

Pennsylvania amended its rules in 2006 to adopt California’s LEVII standards, which it now

refers to as the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program. The Clean Vehicles Program

continues to incorporate the California Low Emission Vehicle Program (CA LEV II) by

reference. As amended, the program affects MY 2008 and newer passenger cars and light

duty trucks vehicles. 36 Pa B. 7424 (December 9, 2006).Emissions reductions in 2008 were estimated based on compliance with the Pennsylvania

Clean Vehicles Program according to the methodology described in section 7.4.1 ofthe“Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emissions Inventory Preparation”

published by EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) in January 2002. Thismethodology is further explained in Appendix E of the Commonwealth’s August 2007

11
engines made by these companies comply with these 2004 standards two model years early, in

model year 2002. Pennsylvania includes these programs as provided in the MOBILE model.

In 2002, Pennsylvania adopted California’s Heavy-Duty Diesel Emissions Control Program,

which took effect beginning with model years after May 2004. The program incorporates

California standards by reference and requires model year 2005 and later new heavy-duty

diesel highway engines to comply with California certification requirements. California

standards are more stringent than federal standards for the two model years between expiration

ofthe consent decrees discussed above and the implementation of more stringent federalstandards affecting model year 2007 and beyond. However, EPA’s MOBILE model alreadyassumes that the engines would comply with consent decree standards, even without an

enforcement mechanism. Pennsylvania used MOBILE defaults to calculate emissions from

model year 2005 and 2006 highway engines.

EPA adopted new emission standards for heavy-duty engines and vehicles, beginning with the

2007 model year. For diesel engines, the standards were phased in from 2007 to 2010 for

NOx and VOCs. For gasoline engines, the standards were phased in during model years 2008

and 2009. Federal and California standards are virtually identical for model year 2007. For

model year 2008, California adopted requirements for anti-idling engine programming whichwill be required in Pennsylvania by virtue of Pennsylvania’s incorporation by reference.

However, there is no EPA-approved methodology to estimate emission reductions from this

requirement. Therefore, the emission estimates use assumptions of the federal rule for theseyears.Because the new engine standards are adversely affected by sulfur in fuel, EPA also requires

most highway diesel fuel to contain no more than 15 parts per million (ppm) ofsulfur in the

fall of 2006. There is a temporary compliance option allowing refiners to continue to produce

up to 20 percent of their highway diesel fuel at 500 ppm fuel until 2010. Pennsylvania uses

MOBILE defaults to estimate the effects of the phase-in provision.

• Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance Program

Pennsylvania’s five counties in the Philadelphia area have had a vehicle emissions inspection

program (I/M program) since 1984. Enhanced TIM was implemented in the program area

beginning in 1997, and the program was most recently amended in 2003 with the addition of

on-board diagnostics testing — which was implemented in early 2004. The program applies to

model year (MY) 1975 and newer, gasoline-powered vehicles under 9,000 pounds of gross

vehicle weight. Vehicles MY 1996 and newer receive an annual on-board diagnostics test and

a gas cap pressure test. Most subject vehicles MY 1995 received a tailpipe emissions test,

12
capped at 80 parts per million (ppm) per gallon and annual refinery averages must be no more

than 30 ppm. The Commonwealth’s emissions reductions for the program use the default

assumptions provided in MOBILE6 to account for the implementation of the Federal sulfurstandard rule in an area in which reformulated gasoline is required.

• Other Motor Vehicle Programs (Stage II Gasoline Vapor Recovery/Federal

Reformulated Gasoline Rule)

Pennsylvania’s Stage II requirements were adopted in February 1992. This program requires

vapor recovery nozzles on gasoline pumps that ensure that the gasoline vapors from the

filling of motor vehicle gasoline tanks are collected and returned to the service station’s

storage tanks. Emission reductions from this strategy primarily come from vehicles without

the federally-required on-board vapor recovery controls phased in between 1998 and 2000

model years, although the requirement provides some additional reductions from the newervehicles as well.

Gasoline sold in the 5-county Philadelphia area is required by the Clean Air Act to comply

with the cleaner-burning reformulated gasoline formulation standards set forth in Section 211

of the CAA. This federally-enforced program has been in place since January 1995.

(4) Non-Road Mobile Measures

Pennsylvania calculated the 2008 reasonable further program emission reductions for the

five Pennsylvania counties in the Philadelphia 8-hour ozone nonattainment area using the EPA

NONROAD model for the following measures:

• Non-Road Small Gasoline Engines

This federal measure requires small gasoline-powered engine equipment, such as lawn and

garden equipment, manufactured after August 1, 1996 to meet federal emissions standards.

These measures apply to equipment with engines of less than 25 horsepower. VOC emissions

result from combustion and evaporation of gasoline used to power this equipment. See 40

CFR parts 90 and 91.

• Non-Road Diesel Engines Tier I and Tier II

The Federal rule established emissions standards for non-road, compression-ignition utility

engines rated at 37 kilowatts or above. This measure applies to all compression-ignition

engines except engines used in aircraft, marine vessels, locomotives and underground miningactivity. NOx emissions result from combustion of diesel fuel used to power this equipment.

13
• Emissions Standards for Large Spark Ignition Engines

This federal measure controls VOC and NOx emissions from several groups of previously

unregulated non-road engines, including large industrial spark-ignition engines, recreationalvehicles, and diesel marine engines. The emission standards apply to all new engines sold inthe United States and any imported engines manufactured after these standards begin.

Controls on the category oflarge industrial spark-ignition engines are first required in 2004.Controls on the other engine categories are required beginning in years after 2005. See 40CFR Parts 89, 90, 91, 94, 1048, 1051, 1065, and 1068.

• Reformulated Gasoline Use in Non-Road Motor Vehicles and Equipment

This federally mandated measure requires the use oflower polluting “reformulated” gasoline

for nonroad engines and equipment. See “Reformulated Gasoline in On-road Vehicles,”above. This measure affects the various non-road mobile sources that burn gasoline, such as

lawn mowers, trimmers, generators, and compressors. The program has been in place in the

Philadelphia nonattainment area since 1995.

• Railroad Engine Standards (Tier 2)

This measure establishes emission standards for newly manufactured and remanufactureddiesel-powered locomotives and locomotive engines. This regulation took effect in 2000. See63 FR 18998, April 16, 1998, and 40 CFR Parts 92.

RFP Emission Reduction Summary

The following table (Table 8) identifies the categorical emission reductions due to control

measures from 2002-2008. These emission reductions are net of growth from 2002 to 2008because they are derived from subtracting the 2008 emissions projections with controls from the

2002 anthropogenic base year inventory. The Highway Sources category includes all expected

emissions reductions, including those from measures that are not creditable under reasonable

further progress. Each control measure is explained in greater detail in Section V. Control

Strategies. The negative reductions for NOx from area sources indicate that emissions in this

category will increase from 2002 to 2008. This increase occurs because the new controlstrategies that were implemented in this category affected VOC emissions only.

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Stationary Area Sources 6.61 -0.86

Portable Fuel Containers

Consumer Products

AIM Coatings

Highway Sources (includes non creditable 37.67 75.88reductions from pre-1990 FMVCP between 2002-08) (12.72 non- (15.58 noncreditable) creditable)

Federal Motor Vehicle Control ProgramsPennsylvania Clean Vehicles ProgramHeavy duty diesel control Programs

Inspection/Maintenance Program

Low Sulfur Gasoline

Other Motor Vehicle Programs

Non-road Sources 16.22 8.28

Federal Nonroad Regulations including Fuel Standards

Total Expected Emission Reductions (2002-2008) 61.15 85.80

(including_non-creditable_reductions)

IV. Contingency Measures for Failure to Meet RFP

Section 172(c)(9) ofthe CAA requires a state with a moderate or above ozone

nonattainment area to include sufficient additional contingency measures in its RFP plan in casethe area fails to meet RFP. The same provision of the CAA also requires that the contingencymeasures must be fully adopted control measures or rules. Upon failure to meet an RFPmilestone requirement, the state must be able to implement the contingency measures without

any further rulemaking activities. Upon implementation ofsuch measures, additional emission

reductions of at least 3 percent of the adjusted 2002 baseline emissions must be achieved. Formore information on contingency measures, see the April 16, 1992 General Preamble (57 FR

13512) and the November 29, 2005 Phase 2 8-hour ozone implementation rule (70 FR 71612).

To meet the requirements for contingency emission reductions, EPA allows for the use of

early implementation of control measures as contingency measures. EPA also allows thesubstitution of NOx emission reductions for VOC emission reductions in the contingency plans(by any combination of NOx and VOC, as long as the 3 percent reduction is achieved and 0.3

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RFP in Section 4 of the December 2009 Correction to the RFP SIP. The results are presented inTable 9, below.

Table 9. Pennsylvania Portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City

Nonattainment Area 2008 RFP Contingency Measure Target Level Calculations

VOC NOx Description Formula (tpd) (tpd)

A 2002 Rate-Of Progress Base Year Inventory 349.87 329.88

son-creditable FMVCP/RVP Reductions 12.72 15.58 B Between 2002 And 2008

2002 Adjusted Base Year Inventory Relative To A-B 337.15 314.3 C 2008

D RFP Ratio (Target Percent Reduction for RFP) 7.5 7.5

RFP Emissions Reductions Required C * (1-(D/100)) 25.29 23.57 E Between 2002 & 2008 for RFP

F Contingency Percentage 3.00 0

G Contingency Emission Reduction Requirements C * F 10.11 0

H Contingency Measure Target Level for 2008 C — E — G 301.76 314.30

2008 Projected Emissions

(including growth and controls and non-creditable 288.72 244.08

I ‘MVCP)

2008 Project Emissions Excluding Reductions from 301.44 259.66 J ion-creditable FMVCP

To determine if Pennsylvania meets the three percent contingency measure requirement for

the Pennsylvania portion of the Philadelphia area, the total projected controlled emissions

(including growth, but excluding reductions from the non-creditable pre-1990 FMVCP) must becompared to the contingency measure target levels calculated above. Pennsylvania has not

indicated whether it intends to obtain the necessary early reduction contingency measures entirelyfrom VOCs, from NOx, or from both. Since the Commonwealth’s 2008 projected VOCinventory is much closer to its contingency measure target level, we calculated the contingency

measure target based on the entire contingency percentage reduction of 3 percent coming fromVOCs, with no NOx substitution. Table 10 shows that Pennsylvania would meet the contingency

measure target ifthis assumption is made. Assuming NOx substitution of 2.7 percent would

show that an entirely NOx-substituted contingency plan would also meet the test.

As shown below in Table 14, the total VOC and NOx projected emissions meet the will meetrequired 2008 contingency measure targets. Therefore, Pennsylvania has sufficient early

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301 76 314 30 (if assumed_to_be_entirely VOC-based)

Contingency measure requirement met if A < B Yes Yes

V. RACM Analysis and Determination

Pursuant to section 172(c)(l) ofthe CAA, states are required to implement all RACM as

expeditiously as practicable for each nonattainment area. Specifically, section 1 72(c)( 1) states

the following: “In general—Such plan provisions shall provide for the implementation of allreasonably available control measures as expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions

in emissions from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through the adoption, at a

minimum, ofreasonably available control technology) and shall provide for attainment of the

national primary ambient air quality standards.” Furthermore, in EPA’s Phase 2 Rule, EPA

describes how states must include a RACM analysis with their attainment demonstration (70 FR

71659). The purpose of the RACM analysis is to determine whether or not reasonably available

control measures exist that would advance the attainment date for nonattainment areas. Control

measures that would advance the attainment date are considered RACM and must be included in

the SIP. RACM are necessary to ensure that the attainment date is achieved “as expeditious as

practicable.” RACM is defined by the EPA as any potential control measure for application topoint, area, on-road and non-road emission source categories that meets the following criteria:

• The control measure is technologically feasible;• The control measure is economically feasible;• The control measure does not cause “substantial widespread and long-term adverse

impacts’;’

• The control measure is not “absurd, unenforceable, or impracticable;” and• The control measure can advance the attainment date by at least one year.

Pennsylvania addresses the RACM requirement in Section V.B ofthe Philadelphia 8-hour

ozone attainment demonstration SIP submitted to EPA in August 2007. In order to meet the

Clean Air Act requirement for RACM, Pennsylvania must demonstrate that it has adopted all

RACM necessary to move the Philadelphia area toward attainment as expeditiously as

practicable. Since the Philadelphia area is classified as a moderate ozone nonattainment areaunder the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, the area was required to demonstrate attainment by the

2009 ozone season. Therefore, Pennsylvania considered measures that would potentially

advance the attainment date, allowing the area to attain by the prior 2008 ozone season.

Pennsylvania worked with the Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) member states to

evaluate potential RACM measures for use in Pennsylvania. In 2006, the OTC staff and member

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and source categories that are thought to be the most effective in reducing ozone air quality levels

in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States

Pennsylvania considered these measures, in conjunction with regional modeling that

indicated that 20-40 tons per day of VOC or NOx would be necessary to advance the attainmentdate by one year. In evaluating the measures potentially available, Pennsylvania determined that

no measure or group ofmeasures would individually or collectively achieve the necessary level

of emission reductions to advance the attainment date. Further, many of these measures could

not be adopted and implemented in time to meet serve as RACM measures.

Pennsylvania lists its most recently adopted measures, in conjunction with the most

recently adopted federal measures in Section V.B ofits August 2007 Attainment Demonstration

SIP. Pennsylvania lists as its recently adopted state measures include:

• Small Source NOx Provisions (Chapter 129, Sections 20 1-205);• Portable Fuel Containers Rule (Chapter 130, Sections 101-108);

• Consumer Products Rule (Chapter 129, Section 63);• Architectural and Industrial Maintenance Coatings Rule (Chapter 130, Sections 601-6 11);• Degreasing Operations Rule (Chapter 129, Section 63);• NOx SIP Call (Internal Combustion Engines provisions) (Chapter 145, Sections 111-113);• NOx SIP Call (Portland Cement Kiln provisions) (Chapter 145, Sections 141-144);• RACT for the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS (2006 EPA SIP Revision);• Enhanced Vehicle I/M Program (67 Pa Code Chapter 177);• Pennsylvania Clean Vehicle Program (Chapter 126, Subchapter D); and• Pennsylvania Heavy-Duty Diesel Emission Control Program (Chapter 126, Subchapter E).

Pennsylvania indicates in its 2007 attainment plan SIP that on the basis ofthis analysis,

there are no further RACM measures that are appropriate for this SIP.

EPA has reviewed Pennsylvania’s SIP analysis, and determined that PA DEP evaluated

all reasonable source categories that could contribute meaningful emission reductions, andcompiled an extensive list of potential control measures. PA DEP considered the time needed to

develop and adopt regulations and the time it would take to see the benefit from these measures.EPA concurs with PA DEP ‘s conclusion that there are no measures that would meet the test for

RACM and that would have advanced the. 2009 attainment date for Pennsylvania’s portion of the

Philadelphia nonattainment area.

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The process for determining the adequacy ofsubmitted SIP budgets is described in 40 CFR

93.118(f).

States must establish VOC and NOx MVEBs for each of the milestone years up to the

attainment year and submit the mobile budgets to EPA for approval. Upon adequacy

determination or approval by EPA, states must conduct transportation conformity analysis for

their Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs) and long range transportation plans to ensure

highway vehicle emissions will not exceed relevant MVEBs. Failure to demonstrate such

transportation conformity would result in a freeze of federal highway funds and all federal

highway projects in the area with a lapse in conformity.

PA DEP’s SIP discusses transportation conformity in Section V.E of the August 2007

Philadelphia 8-hour ozone plan, and the same MVEBs are restated in the December 2009 RFP

revision SIP. PA DEP, in consultation with the Delaware Regional Planning Commission

(DVRPC), the designated metropolitan planning organization for the Philadelphia area,established MVEBs for 2008. The 2008 mobile emissions inventory was calculated using EPA’s

MOBILE6.2 and the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) model. Pennsylvania

further describes its methodology for calculating its mobile emission budgets in Appendix E of

the August 2007 Philadelphia 8-hour ozone plan.

The MVEB for the Pennsylvania portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 8-

hour ozone nonattainment area for the 2008 RFP is based on projected 2008 mobile source

emissions accounting for all mobile control measures, inclusive of growth. The MVEBs for the

2008 RFP are shown in Table 11, below.

Table 11. Pennsylvania Portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA2008 RFP MVEB

VOC NOx

Kilograms/day 55,421 98,686Tons/day 61.09 108.78

For budgets to be approvable, they must meet, at a minimum, EPA’s adequacy criteria

(40 CFR 93.1 18(e)(4)). In a December 19, 2008 Federal Register notice, EPA notified the public

that EPA found that the 2008 RFP MVEBs in the Pennsylvania portion of the PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City 8-hour ozone plan are adequate for transportation conformity purposes

(73 FR 77682). As a result of EPA’s finding, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania must use the

MVEBs from its August 29, 2007 8-hour ozone plan for the Philadelphia area for future

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C. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS:

I have reviewed Pennsylvania’s 2008 Reasonable Further Progress plan, contingency

measures for failure to meet RFP, and RACM analysis for the Pennsylvania portion of the

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City NAA and found them to be approvable. In addition, EPA

Region 3’s Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis determined that PA DEP used acceptabletechniques and methodologies to develop the Philadelphia nonattainment area 2002 base year

emission and 2008 milestone year projected inventories.

Furthermore, EPA has found the Pennsylvania portion of the Philadelphia-WilmingtonAtlantic City’s nonattainment area 2008 RFP MVEBs adequate for transportation conformity

purposes. Therefore I recommend approval of select SIP elements in Pennsylvania’s August 29,

2007 8-hour ozone plan (as amended by Pennsylvania December 10, 2009 and on April 12,2010). The SIP elements being recommended by EPA for approval herein include the

following: the 2002 base year emissions inventory, the RFP plan and associated 2008 projectedemission inventories, the RACM analysis, the contingency measures for failure to meet 2008

RFP, and the 2008 MVEBs for the Baltimore moderate nonattainment area.

Attachments:

- “Technical Support Document (TSD) for the Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and

Philadelphia Counties Located in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-DE 8Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area: State Implementation Plan (SIP) Attainment Demonstration

and Base Year Inventory,” prepared by Alice H. Chow and signed by Walter Wilkie, AirQuality Analysis Branch Chief, on May 5, 2010 (Pennsylvania portion ofthe PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City Emission Inventory TSD).

- Adequacy Status ofthe 2008 Reasonable Further Progress Plan for the Pennsylvania Portion

of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Motor

Vehicle Emission Budgets (73 FR 77682).

- “Technical Support Document — Adequacy Findings for the Motor Vehicle Emissions

Budgets in the 2008 Reasonable Further Progress Plan for the Pennsylvania Portion of thePhiladelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area,” prepared byMartin T. Kotsch and signed by Carol Febbo, Energy, Radiation, and Indoor EnvironmentBranch Chief, on November 14, 2008 (Pennsylvania portion of the Philadelphia-Wilmington

Atlantic City MVEB Adequacy TSD).

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