CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

**9.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**........................................................................................................... 9­1** 

**9.2 SHIPMENTS**  **MODEL METHODOLOGY.................................................................... 9­1** 

**9.2.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps**

**................................................................................ 9­2** 

**9.2.1.1 Lamp**  **Replacement**

**........................................................................................ 9­2** 

**9.2.1.2 Lamp­and­Ballast**  **System Replacement........................................................ 9­3** 

**9.2.1.3 Lamp­and­Ballast**  **System New**  **Purchase...................................................... 9­4**

**9.2.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps......................................................................................... 9­4** 

**9.2.2.1 Emerging**  **Technologies**

**................................................................................. 9­5** 

**9.3 BASE­CASE**  **INPUTS AND**  **FORECASTS**

**................................................................... 9­5** 

**9.3.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps**

**................................................................................ 9­5** 

**9.3.1.1 Historical**  **Shipments...................................................................................... 9­5**

**9.3.1.2 Shipments**  **Projections to**  **2011 and**  **Calculations of**  **2011 Lamp**  **and**

**Ballast Stocks.................................................................................................**  **9­6**

**9.3.1.3 Base­Case**  **Market­Share Matrices.................................................................**  **9­7**

**9.3.1.4 Base­Case**  **Forecast Results** 

**......................................................................... 9­12** 

**9.3.1.5 Base­Case**  **Forecast by**  **Market Segment......................................................**  **9­15**

**9.3.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps....................................................................................... 9­18** 

**9.3.2.1 Historical**  **Shipments.................................................................................... 9­18**

**9.3.2.2 Shipments Projections to 2011 and Calculations of 2011 Lamp Stock....... 9­19** 

**9.3.2.3 Base­Case**  **Market­Share Matrices...............................................................**  **9­19**

**9.3.2.4 Base­Case**  **Forecast Results** 

**......................................................................... 9­21** 

**9.3.2.5 Base­Case**  **Forecast by**  **Market Segment......................................................**  **9­23**

**9.4 STANDARDS­CASE**  **INPUTS..................................................................................... 9­24**

**9.4.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps**

**.............................................................................. 9­24** 

**9.4.1.1 Shipments**  **Scenarios**

**.................................................................................... 9­24** 

**9.4.1.2 Standards­Case**  **Market­Share Matrices.......................................................**  **9­25**

**9.4.1.3 Early Retirement of Ballasts in the Standards Cases................................... 9­42** 

**9.4.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps....................................................................................... 9­44** 

**9.4.2.1 Shipments**  **Scenarios**

**.................................................................................... 9­44** 

**9.4.2.2 Standards­Case**  **Market­Share Matrices.......................................................**  **9­45**

**9.5 RESULTS** 

**...................................................................................................................... 9­48** 

**9.5.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps**

**.............................................................................. 9­48** 

**9.5.1.1 Shipments**  **Forecasts: Base**  **and Standards**  **Cases......................................... 9­48** 

**9.5.1.2 Cumulative**  **Shipments Impacts**  **(2012**

**– 2042)............................................**  **9­54**

**9.5.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps....................................................................................... 9­56** 

**9.5.2.1 Shipments**  **Forecasts: Base**  **and Standards**  **Cases........................................ 9­56** 

**9.5.2.2 Cumulative**  **Shipments Impacts**  **(2012–2042).............................................. 9­58** 

**REFERENCES**

**.......................................................................................................................... 9­60** 

**9­i**LIST OF TABLES

**Table 9.2.1**  **Modeled GSFL**  **Lamp­and­Ballast Replacement**  **Trends.......................................... 9­3** 

**Table 9.3.1**  **GSFL Total**  **Historical Shipments**  **(millions)........................................................... 9­5** 

**Table 9.3.2**  **2011 Lamp**  **and Ballast**  **Stocks (millions)................................................................**  **9­7**

**Table 9.3.3**  **Base­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Four­Foot T8**  **Medium Bipin**  **Systems........... 9­8** 

**Table 9.3.4**  **Base­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Four­Foot T12**  **Medium Bipin**  **Systems**

**........ 9­9** 

**Table 9.3.5**  **Base­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T8**  **Single Pin**  **Slimline**

**Systems**

**.............................................................................................................. 9­10** 

**Table 9.3.6**  **Base­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T12**  **Single Pin**  **Slimline**

**Systems**

**.............................................................................................................. 9­10** 

**Table 9.3.7**  **Base­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Four­Foot T8**  **Medium Bipin**  **Systems**

**Replacing 8­foot**  **T12 Single**  **Pin Slimline**  **Systems........................................... 9­11** 

**Table 9.3.8**  **Base­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T12**  **Recessed Double** 

**Contact High**  **Output Initial**  **and New**  **Ballast Systems......................................**  **9­12**

**Table 9.3.9**  **IRL Historical**  **Shipments (millions)......................................................................**  **9­19**

**Table 9.3.10**  **Base­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Commercial IRL**  **Sockets**

**.......................... 9­20** 

**Table 9.3.11**  **Base­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Residential IRL**  **Sockets**

**............................ 9­21** 

**Table 9.4.1**  **Description of**  **Base­Case and**  **Standards­Case GSFL**  **Market­Share Matrices,** 

**Initial and**  **New Ballast**  **Models.......................................................................... 9­26** 

**Table 9.4.2**  **Standards­Case Initial**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Four­Foot T8** 

**Medium Bipin**  **Systems (Shift**  **Scenario)**

**........................................................... 9­27** 

**Table 9.4.3**  **Standards­Case Initial**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Four­Foot T8** 

**Medium Bipin**  **Systems (Roll­up**  **Scenario)....................................................... 9­28**

**Table 9.4.4**  **Standards­Case Initial**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Four­Foot T12** 

**Medium Bipin**  **Systems (Shift**  **and Roll­up**  **Scenarios)...................................... 9­29** 

**Table 9.4.5**  **Standards­Case New**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Four­Foot T8**  **Medium**

**Bipin Systems**  **(Shift Scenario).......................................................................... 9­30** 

**Table 9.4.6**  **Standards­Case New**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Four­Foot T8**  **Medium**

**Bipin Systems**  **(Roll­Up Scenario).....................................................................**  **9­30**

**Table 9.4.7**  **Standards­Case Initial**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T8**  **Single**

**Pin Slimline**  **Systems (Shift**  **Scenario)............................................................... 9­32**

**Table 9.4.8**  **Standards­Case Initial**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T8**  **Single**

**Pin Slimline**  **Systems (Roll­up**  **Scenario)**

**......................................................... 9­33** 

**Table 9.4.9**  **Standards­Case Initial**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T12** 

**Single Pin**  **Slimline Systems**  **(Shift and**  **Roll­up Scenarios)** 

**............................. 9­34** 

**Table 9.4.10**  **Standards­Case New**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T8**  **Single**

**Pin Slimline**  **Systems (Shift**  **Scenario)............................................................... 9­35**

**Table 9.4.11**  **Standards­Case New**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T8**  **Single**

**Pin Slimline**  **Systems (Roll­up**  **Scenario)**

**.......................................................... 9­36** 

**Table 9.4.12**  **Standards­Case New**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Four­Foot T8** 

**Medium Bipin**  **Systems Replacing**  **Eight­Foot Single**  **Pin Slimline**  **Systems**

**(Shift Scenario)** 

**.................................................................................................. 9­37** 

**9­ii Table**  **9.4.13 Standards­Case**  **New Ballast**  **Market­Share Matrix**  **for Four­Foot**  **T8**

**Medium Bipin**  **Systems Replacing**  **Eight­Foot Single**  **Pin Slimline**  **Systems**

**(Roll­up Scenario)..............................................................................................**  **9­38**

**Table 9.4.14**  **Standards­Case Initial**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T12** 

**Recessed Double**  **Contact High**  **Output Systems**  **(Shift and**  **Roll­up**

**Scenarios)........................................................................................................... 9­39** 

**Table 9.4.15**  **Standards­Case New**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T12** 

**Recessed Double**  **Contact High**  **Output New**  **Ballast Systems**  **(Shift**

**Scenario)**

**............................................................................................................ 9­40** 

**Table 9.4.16**  **Standards­Case New**  **Ballast Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T12** 

**Recessed Double**  **Contact High**  **Output New**  **Ballast Systems**  **(Roll­up**

**Scenario)**

**............................................................................................................ 9­41** 

**Table 9.4.17**  **Standards­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T8**  **Recessed Double** 

**Contact High**  **Output New**  **Ballast Systems**  **(Shift Scenario).............................**  **9­42**

**Table 9.4.18**  **Standards­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Eight­Foot T8**  **Recessed Double** 

**Contact High**  **Output New**  **Ballast Systems**  **(Roll­up Scenario)** 

**........................ 9­42** 

**Table 9.4.19**  **Early Retirement**  **of Four­Foot**  **T12 Medium**  **Bipin and**  **Eight­Foot Single** 

**Pin Slimline**  **Ballasts in**  **the Standards**  **Cases..................................................... 9­43**

**Table 9.4.20**  **Description of**  **Base­Case and**  **Standards­Case IRL**  **Market­Share Matrices** 

**...... 9­46** 

**Table 9.4.21**  **Standards­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Commercial IRL**  **Sockets (Main** 

**Shipment Scenario)............................................................................................ 9­47** 

**Table 9.4.22**  **Standards­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Residential IRL**  **Sockets (Main** 

**Shipment Scenario)............................................................................................ 9­48** 

**Table 9.5.1**  **Four­Foot Medium**  **Bipin Lamp:**  **Cumulative Shipments**  **Impacts Caused**  **by**

**Standards, 2012–2042**  **(Shift Scenario)** 

**............................................................. 9­55** 

**Table 9.5.2**  **Four­Foot Medium**  **Bipin Lamp:**  **Cumulative Shipments**  **Impacts Caused**  **by**

**Standards, 2012–2042**  **(Roll­up Scenario)......................................................... 9­55** 

**Table 9.5.3**  **Eight­Foot Single**  **Pin Slimline:**  **Cumulative Shipments**  **Impacts Caused**  **by**

**Standards, 2012–2042**  **(Shift and**  **Roll­up Scenarios)........................................**  **9­55**

**Table 9.5.4**  **Eight­Foot Recessed**  **Double Contact**  **High Output:**  **Cumulative Shipments** 

**Impacts Caused**  **by Standards,**  **2012–2042 (Shift**  **and Roll­up**  **Scenarios)**

**........ 9­56** 

**Table 9.5.5**  **Commercial Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps:**  **Cumulative Shipments**  **Impacts**

**Caused by**  **Standards, 2012–2042**  **(Main Shipment**  **Scenario)........................... 9­58** 

**Table 9.5.6**  **Residential Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps:**  **Cumulative Shipments**  **Impacts**

**Caused by**  **Standards, 2012–2042**  **(Main Shipment**  **Scenario)........................... 9­59** 

**9­iii**LIST OF FIGURES

**Figure 9.3.1**  **Four­Foot Medium**  **Bipin Historical,**  **Projected, and**  **Base­Case Forecasted** 

**Shipments........................................................................................................... 9­13** 

**Figure 9.3.2**  **Eight­Foot Single**  **Pin Slimline**  **Historical, Projected,**  **and Base­Case** 

**Forecasted Shipments** 

**........................................................................................ 9­14** 

**Figure 9.3.3**  **Eight­Foot Recessed**  **Double Contact**  **High Output**  **Historical, Projected,**  **and**

**Base­Case Forecasted**  **Shipments**

**...................................................................... 9­15** 

**Figure 9.3.4**  **Four­Foot Medium**  **Bipin Base­Case**  **Shipment Forecast**  **by Market**  **Segment**

**.... 9­16** 

**Figure 9.3.5**  **Eight­Foot Single**  **Pin Slimline**  **Base­Case Shipments**  **Forecast by**  **Market**

**Segment.............................................................................................................. 9­17** 

**Figure 9.3.6**  **8­Foot Recessed**  **Double Contact**  **High Output**  **Base­Case Shipments** 

**Forecast by**  **Market Segment** 

**............................................................................. 9­18** 

**Figure 9.3.7**  **Commercial IRL**  **Historical, Projected,**  **and Base­Case**  **Forecasted**

**Shipments........................................................................................................... 9­22** 

**Figure 9.3.8 Residential IRL Historical, Projected, and Base­Case Forecasted Shipments..... 9­23** 

**Figure 9.3.9**  **Commercial and**  **Residential IRL**  **Base­Case Shipments**  **Forecast by**  **Market**

**Segment.............................................................................................................. 9­24** 

**Figure 9.4.1 Retrofit Rate Effect on Four­Foot T12 Shipments at CSL 1................................ 9­44** 

**Figure 9.5.1**  **Four­Foot Medium**  **Bipin Base­Case**  **and Standards­Case**  **Shipments**

**Forecasts (Shift**  **Scenario)*................................................................................ 9­50**

**Figure 9.5.2**  **Four­Foot Medium**  **Bipin Base­Case**  **and Standards­Case**  **Shipments**

**Forecasts (Roll­Up**  **Scenario)............................................................................. 9­51** 

**Figure 9.5.3**  **Eight­Foot Single**  **Pin Slimline**  **Base­Case and**  **Standards­Case Shipments** 

**Forecasts (Shift**  **Scenario).................................................................................. 9­52**

**Figure 9.5.4**  **Eight­Foot Single**  **Pin Slimline**  **Base­Case and**  **Standards­Case Shipments** 

**Forecasts (Roll­up**  **Scenario).............................................................................. 9­53** 

**Figure 9.5.5**  **Eight­Foot Recessed**  **Double Contact**  **High Output**  **Base­Case and** 

**Standards­Case Shipments**  **Forecasts (Shift**  **and Roll­up**  **Scenarios)................. 9­54** 

**Figure 9.5.6**  **Commercial IRL**  **Base­Case and**  **Standards­Case Shipment**  **Forecasts (Main** 

**Shipment Scenario)............................................................................................ 9­57** 

**Figure 9.5.7**  **Residential IRL**  **Base­Case and**  **Standards­Case Shipments**  **Forecasts (Main** 

**Shipment Scenario)............................................................................................ 9­58** 

**9­iv**CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION

**Lamp shipment**  **estimates are**  **key inputs**  **to the**  **national energy**  **savings (NES)**  **and net** 

**present value**  **(NPV) calculations.**  **Shipments are**  **also a**  **necessary input**  **to the**  **manufacturer**

**impact analysis**  **(MIA), which**  **the U.S.**  **Department of**  **Energy (DOE)**  **conducts for**  **its Notices**  **of**

**Proposed Rulemaking**  **(NOPRs). This**  **chapter describes**  **DOE’s methodology**  **for projecting** 

**annual shipments**  **and presents**  **initial inputs**  **and results**  **for general**  **service fluorescent**  **lamps**

**(GSFL) and**  **incandescent reflector**  **lamps (IRL)** 

**In the**  **shipments analysis,**  **DOE develops**  **a base­case**  **shipment forecast**  **for each**  **lamp**

**type to**  **depict what**  **would happen**  **to energy**  **use and**  **consumer costs**  **for the**  **purchase and** 

**operation of**  **lamps in**  **the absence**  **of new**  **or revised**  **Federal energy**  **conservation standards.**  **In**

**determining the**  **base case,**  **DOE considers**  **historical shipments,**  **the mix**  **of efficacies**  **sold in**  **the**

**absence of**  **any new**  **or revised**  **standards, and**  **how that**  **mix might**  **change over**  **time. To**  **evaluate**

**the impacts**  **of standards**  **for GSFL**  **and IRL,**  **collectively referred**  **to in**  **this rulemaking**  **as the** 

**“two categories**  **of lamps,”**  **DOE compares**  **the base­case**  **projection against**  **forecasts of**  **what**

**could happen**  **if DOE**  **promulgates standards.**  **DOE considers**  **multiple shipments**  **scenarios to** 

**characterize standards­case**  **shipments. In**  **both the**  **base and**  **standards cases,**  **DOE forecasts** 

**shipments over**  **the NIA**  **analysis period,**  **2012 to**  **2042.**

**The shipments**  **model and**  **the national**  **impacts model**  **are integrated**  **into single**  **Microsoft**

**® Excel spreadsheets**  **for GSFL**  **and IRL.**  **The two**  **spreadsheets are**  **accessible on**  **the Internet**  **at**

**http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/**

**. Appendix**  **10A discusses**  **how to** 

**access the**  **spreadsheets and**  **provides basic**  **instructions for**  **using them.**  **This chapter**  **explains the** 

**shipments models.**  **Section 9.2**  **presents the**  **shipments model**  **methodology for**  **GSFL and**  **IRL;**

**section 9.3**  **describes the**  **data inputs**  **and historical**  **and base­case**  **shipments forecasts;**  **section 9.4** 

**discusses the**  **impacts of**  **standards on**  **the mix**  **of lamp**  **designs and**  **lamp­and­ballast designs;**  **and**

**section 9.5**  **presents the**  **shipments results**  **for the**  **different candidate**  **standard levels**  **(CSLs).**

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY

**For the**  **ANOPR, DOE**  **is developing**  **separate shipment**  **models for**  **GSFL and**  **IRL. To** 

**forecast shipments**  **for these**  **two categories**  **of lamps,**  **DOE is**  **following a**  **four­step process.** 

**First, DOE**  **uses 2001**  **to 2005**  **historical shipment**  **data from**  **the National**  **Electrical**

**Manufacturers Association**  **(NEMA) to**  **estimate the**  **total historical**  **shipments (i.e.,**  **NEMA**

**1 member**  **and non­NEMA**  **member shipments)**  **of each**  **lamp type**  **analyzed. Second, using**  **total**

**historical shipments,**  **DOE projects**  **shipments to**  **2011. Then,**  **based on**  **the average**  **service**

**lifetimes of**  **products, DOE**  **estimates a**  **2011 lamp**  **stock for**  **each lamp**  **type. Third,**  **DOE**

**forecasts the**  **shipments of**  **lamp and**  **lamp­and­ballast designs**  **over the**  **analysis period**  **(2012 to** 

**2042) by**  **modeling purchasing**  **events, such**  **as lamp**  **replacement or**  **new construction.**  **Finally,**

**DOE develops**  **base­case and**  **standards­case market­share**  **matrices. DOE**  **uses market­share** 

**matrices for**  **its analysis**  **because the**  **shipments of**  **lamp designs**  **and lamp­and­ballast**  **designs**

**9­1 depend**  **on their**  **properties. The**  **market­share matrices**  **characterize the**  **efficacy, power**  **rating,**

**light output,**  **and lifetime**  **of the**  **lamp and**  **lamp­and­ballast designs**  **and input**  **the percentage** 

**market share**  **of each**  **design. DOE**  **uses these**  **market­share matrices**  **to forecast**  **lamp stock**  **and**

**shipments based**  **on lifetimes,**  **and to**  **determine the**  **aggregate characteristics**  **of the**  **market (e.g.,** 

**average light**  **output, efficacy,**  **and power**  **rating).**

9.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

**In line**  **with observed**  **market applications,**  **DOE forecasts**  **annual shipments**  **for 4­foot** 

**medium bipin**  **and 8­foot**  **single pin**  **slimline lamps**  **in the**  **commercial sector,**  **and 8­foot**  **recessed**

**double contact**  **high output**  **(HO) lamps**  **in the**  **industrial sector.**  **The standards­case**  **shipment**

**forecasts presented**  **in this**  **chapter include**  **both T8**  **and T12**  **lamp shipments**  **together, with**  **both**

**types of**  **lamps at**  **the same**  **CSL. The**  **shipment model**  **analyzes these**  **lamp types**  **at separate** 

**CSLs for**  **each of**  **the analyzed**  **product classes.**  **Due to**  **their relatively**  **small shipment­based** 

**market share**  **of the**  **total GSFL**  **market (approximately**  **four percent),**  **DOE is**  **not forecasting** 

**shipments or**  **analyzing the**  **national impact**  **of standards**  **for 2­foot**  **U­shaped lamps**  **in the** 

**ANOPR. In**  **addition, because**  **GSFL of**  **different correlated**  **color temperatures**  **(CCTs) were**  **not**

**segregated in**  **the NEMA**  **historical shipment**  **data, DOE**  **decided to**  **analyze and**  **forecast**

**shipments of**  **each lamp**  **type (**  e.g. **4­foot medium**  **bipin), aggregating**  **across the**  **lamps of**  **low**

**(less than**  **or equal**  **to 4,500K)**  **and high**  **(greater than**  **4,500K) CCT.**  **In each**  **case, DOE**  **used a** 

**representative product**  **class (lamps**  **with CCT**  **less than**  **or equal**  **to 4,**  **500K) to**  **evaluate lamp** 

**designs and**  **believes that**  **the national**  **impacts will**  **be similar**  **for those**  **product classes**  **not**

**directly analyzed.**  **In addition,**  **by aggregating**  **the low**  **and high**  **CCT product**  **classes, DOE** 

**assumes that**  **there will**  **be no**  **significant migration**  **of shipments**  **or stock**  **between lamps**  **of**

**different CCTs.** 

**In its**  **GSFL shipment**  **model, DOE**  **considers specific**  **market segments**  **to develop** 

**estimates of**  **annual shipments.**  **DOE accounts**  **for four**  **lamp purchase**  **events that**  **correspond to** 

**those DOE**  **uses in**  **the life­cycle**  **cost (LCC)**  **and payback**  **period (PBP)**  **analyses (Chapter**  **8):**

**lamp failure**  **(Event I),**  **ballast failure**  **(Event III),**  **lamp­and­ballast system**  **retrofit (Events**  **II and** 

**IV), and**  **new construction**  **(Event V).**  **For each**  **market segment,**  **DOE makes**  **certain**

**assumptions about**  **how consumers**  **are likely**  **to purchase**  **new lamps**  **or lamp­and­ballast** 

**systems. DOE**  **uses these**  **purchasing assumptions**  **to develop**  **the GSFL**  **shipment forecasts.** 

9.2.1.1 Lamp Replacement

**For those**  **consumer purchases**  **triggered by**  **a lamp**  **failure, DOE**  **assumes that**  **the**

**consumer will**  **purchase a**  **lamp identical**  **to the**  **one that**  **has retired,**  **if it**  **is available.**  **If in**  **the**

**standards case**  **the base­case**  **lamp design**  **is not**  **standards­compliant, then**  **DOE assumes**  **that**

**upon lamp**  **failure, consumers**  **will purchase**  **a new**  **lamp that**  **is compatible**  **with the**  **existing**

**ballast. If**  **no standards­compliant**  **lamps are**  **compatible with**  **existing ballasts,**  **DOE models** 

**consumers as**  **retiring their**  **lamp­and­ballast system**  **before the**  **ballast’s end**  **of life.**  **The**

**consumer purchase**  **decision is**  **then identical**  **to that**  **of a**  **lamp­and­ballast system**  **retrofit.**

**9­2 DOE**  **establishes the**  **timing of**  **lamp replacements**  **by tracking**  **the shipments**  **of lamps**  **and**

**then predicting**  **when lamps**  **will retire**  **based on**  **their average**  **service lifetime.**  **Instead of**  **using**

**each particular**  **lamp design’s**  **individual lifetime,**  **DOE uses**  **the lamp**  **service lifetime**  **(lamp life** 

**divided by**  **operating hours)**  **to establish**  **a representative**  **service lifetime**  **for each**  **lamp type.**  **For**

**4­foot medium**  **bipin lamps,**  **DOE uses**  **a representative**  **lamp service**  **lifetime of**  **six years.**  **For 8­** 

**foot singlepin**  **slimline lamps,**  **DOE uses**  **a representative**  **lamp service**  **lifetime of**  **four years.**  **For**

**8­foot recessed**  **double contact**  **high output**  **lamps, DOE**  **uses a**  **representative service**  **lifetime of** 

**two years.** 

9.2.1.2 Lamp­and­Ballast System Replacement

**For consumer**  **purchases triggered**  **by a**  **ballast failure**  **or lamp­and­ballast**  **system retrofit,** 

**DOE assumes**  **that consumers**  **will discard**  **their existing**  **lamps with**  **the failed**  **ballasts, even**  **if**

**lamp life**  **remains. Consumers**  **will then**  **purchase new**  **lamp­and­ballast systems**  **compatible with** 

**their existing**  **fixtures to**  **replace their**  **retired system.** 

**Historical shipments**  **and discussions**  **with industry**  **experts indicate**  **that there**  **are several** 

**lamp­and­ballast replacement**  **and retrofit**  **trends within**  **the GSFL**  **market. DOE**  **models these** 

**trends in**  **both the**  **base­case and**  **standards­case shipment**  **models. For**  **example, in**  **the**

**commercial sector,**  **DOE models**  **a natural**  **shift upon**  **ballast retirement**  **and replacement**  **from 4­** 

**foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **magnetic ballasts**  **(one­ and two­lamp**  **per ballast**  **systems) to**  **4­foot T8** 

**medium bipin**  **electronic ballasts**  **(three­lamp per**  **ballast systems).**  **Also, the**  **commercial**

**shipment model**  **reflects a**  **similar shift**  **from 8­foot**  **T12 single­pin**  **slimline magnetic**  **ballasts to** 

**8­foot T8**  **single­pin slimline**  **electronic ballasts**  **and a**  **system of**  **two 4­foot**  **T8 medium**  **bipin**

**electronic ballasts.**  **DOE also**  **models early**  **retirement of**  **lamp­and­ballast systems**  **in the** 

**standards case.**  **Section 9.4.1.3**  **provides more**  **on the**  **assumptions DOE**  **makes regarding**  **these**

**retrofits. Table**  **9.2.1 presents**  **the modeled**  **lamp and**  **ballast replacement**  **trends.**

Table 9.2.1 Modeled GSFL Lamp­and­Ballast Replacement Trends

Retired Lamp­and­Ballast System Replacement Lamp­and­Ballast System

**4­foot T12**  **medium bipin** 

**(one­ and two­lamp**  **per ballast**  **system) 4­foot**  **T8 medium**  **bipin**

**(three­lamp per**  **ballast system)** 

**4­foot T8**  **medium bipin** 

**(three­lamp per**  **ballast system)**  **4­foot T8**  **medium bipin** 

**(three­lamp per**  **ballast system)** 

**8­foot T12**  **single pin**  **slimline 10%**  **8­foot T8**  **single pin**  **slimline**

**(two­lamp per**  **ballast system)** 

**(two­lamp per**  **ballast system)**  **90% 4­foot**  **T8 medium**  **bipin**

**(two two­lamp**  **per ballast**  **systems)**

**8­foot T8**  **single pin**  **slimline**

**(two­lamp per**  **ballast system)**  **8­foot T8**  **single pin**  **slimline**

**(two­lamp per**  **ballast system)** 

**8­foot T12**  **recessed double**  **contact HO** 

**(two­lamp per**  **ballast system)**  **8­foot T12**  **recessed double**  **contact HO** 

**(two­lamp per**  **ballast system)** 

**8­foot T8**  **recessed double**  **contact HO** 

**(two­lamp per**  **ballast system)**  **8­foot T8**  **recessed double**  **contact HO** 

**(two­lamp per**  **ballast system)** 

**DOE establishes**  **the timing**  **of ballast**  **replacements in**  **response to**  **ballast failure**  **by**

**tracking ballast**  **shipments and**  **then predicting**  **when these**  **ballasts are**  **expected to**  **retire based**  **on**

**their service**  **lifetime. Based**  **on average**  **operating hours**  **and ballast**  **lifetimes, DOE**  **assumes that** 

**9­3 the**  **average ballast**  **service lifetime**  **is 14**  **years in**  **the commercial**  **sector and**  **10 years**  **in the** 

**industrial sector.** 

9.2.1.3 Lamp­and­Ballast System New Purchase

**Finally, for**  **consumer purchases**  **triggered by**  **new construction,**  **DOE assumes**  **that**

**consumers may**  **purchase a**  **variety of**  **new lamp­and­ballast**  **systems to**  **service their**  **particular**

**lumen demand.**  **Because only**  **4­foot T8**  **medium bipin**  **lamp historical**  **shipments have**  **shown**

**significant growth,**  **DOE models**  **all purchases**  **due to**  **new construction**  **in the**  **commercial sector** 

**as being**  **4­foot T8**  **medium bipin**  **lamp­and­ballast system**  **purchases. DOE’s**  **determination of** 

**shipments due**  **to new**  **construction assumes**  **lumen growth**  **of 1.6**  **percent per**  **year. DOE** 

**estimates annual**  **lumen growth**  **based on**  **the latest**  **Commercial Buildings**  **Energy Consumption** 

**Survey (CBECS)**  **data on**  **growth of**  **building floor**  **space. 2,3**  **In the**  **industrial sector,**  **historical**

**shipments of**  **8­foot recessed**  **double contact**  **HO lamps**  **indicate that**  **the market**  **is relatively**  **flat.**

**Therefore, DOE**  **assumes that**  **all lighting**  **system purchases**  **due to**  **new construction**  **are emerging** 

**substitution technologies**  **(e.g., T5**  **fluorescent lamps).**  **Therefore, the**  **assumed annual**  **lumen**

**growth rate**  **in the**  **8­foot recessed**  **double contact**  **HO model**  **is set**  **to zero.** 

9.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

**Similar to**  **DOE’s treatment**  **of separate**  **product classes**  **based on**  **CCT for**  **GSFL, DOE** 

**forecasts IRL**  **shipments by**  **aggregating across**  **the standard­spectrum**  **and modified­spectrum** 

**lamps. In**  **both of**  **these cases**  **of aggregation,**  **DOE used**  **a representative**  **product class** 

**(standard­spectrum IRL)**  **to evaluate**  **lamp designs**  **and believes**  **that the**  **national impacts**  **will be** 

**similar for**  **modified­spectrum lamps**  **not directly**  **analyzed. By**  **aggregating the**  **two product** 

**classes, DOE**  **assumes that**  **there will**  **be no**  **significant migration**  **of shipments**  **or stock**  **between**

**lamps of**  **different spectrums.** 

**The IRL**  **shipments model**  **forecasts growth**  **in the**  **number of**  **IRL sockets**  **in both**  **the**

**commercial and**  **residential sectors,**  **reflecting new**  **construction in**  **each sector.**  **DOE assumes**  **1.6**

**percent growth**  **in lamp**  **sockets per**  **year for**  **the commercial**  **sector and**  **1.3 percent**  **growth per** 

**4 year**  **for the**  **residential sector.**  **DOE based**  **these estimates**  **on the**  **latest CBECS and**  **Residential**

**5 Energy**  **Consumption Survey**  **(RECS) forecast of**  **square footage**  **growth in**  **the commercial**  **and**

**residential sectors.**  **The model**  **ships lamps**  **every year**  **to replace**  **retiring lamps**  **and to**  **meet**

**growth in**  **the stock**  **of lamps.**  **DOE models**  **lamp designs**  **based on**  **three lumen**  **packages in**  **the**

**commercial and**  **residential sectors:**  **580, 1,050**  **and 1,310**  **lumens (lm).**  **Consumers who**  **purchase**

**lamps with**  **a particular**  **lumen package**  **in the**  **base case**  **generally purchase**  **lamps with**  **that same** 

**lumen package**  **in the**  **standards case.** 

**Similar to**  **the GSFL**  **shipments forecast,**  **DOE establishes**  **the timing**  **of lamp** 

**replacements by**  **tracking lamp**  **shipments and**  **then predicting**  **when those**  **lamps will**  **retire based** 

**on their**  **service lifetimes.**  **As discussed**  **in the**  **LCC and**  **PBP analysis**  **(Chapter 8),**  **DOE**

**calculates the**  **service lifetimes**  **of lamps**  **by dividing**  **the lamp**  **lifetime in**  **hours by**  **the annual** 

**operating hours.**  **As discussed**  **in the**  **energy use**  **characterization (Chapter**  **6), DOE**  **uses five** 

**different operating**  **hours to**  **characterize the**  **usage of**  **reflector compact**  **fluorescent lamps.**  **By**

**9­4 using**  **different operating**  **hours, DOE**  **effectively varies**  **the service**  **lives of**  **the modeled**  **lamps,**

**thereby affecting**  **shipments.**

9.2.2.1 Emerging Technologies

**A significant**  **effect on**  **the IRL**  **shipments forecasts**  **is the**  **potential for**  **rapidly emerging** 

**new lighting**  **technologies to**  **enter the**  **IRL market.**  **These technologies,**  **such as**  **reflector**

**compact fluorescent**  **lamps (CFL),**  **ceramic metal­halide**  **(CMH), and**  **solid­state lighting**  **(SSL),**

**already can**  **be or**  **eventually will**  **be significantly**  **more efficacious**  **and longer**  **lasting than**  **the**

**IRL they**  **are replacing.**  **If these**  **emerging technologies**  **achieve their**  **potential, they**  **may**

**significantly affect**  **the benefit**  **calculations from**  **the IRL**  **efficacy standards.**  **However, to** 

**calculate the**  **energy savings**  **and NPV**  **benefits, DOE**  **would need**  **to accurately**  **forecast the** 

**anticipated price**  **and performance**  **points of**  **an emerging**  **technology such**  **as SSL,**  **which would** 

**be difficult**  **and highly**  **speculative. Consequently,**  **DOE does**  **not directly**  **model a**  **shift from**  **IRL**

**to CFL**  **and other**  **technologies in**  **its base­case**  **main shipment**  **scenario or**  **sensitivity scenarios.** 

**DOE accounts**  **for the**  **market impact**  **of these**  **emerging technologies**  **in the**  **shipments**

**forecast by**  **deducting the**  **anticipated emerging**  **technology market**  **share from**  **the installed**  **base.**

**DOE estimates**  **the future**  **market shares**  **of these**  **technologies, absent**  **standards, and**  **deducts that** 

**market share**  **of the**  **installed IRL**  **base. This**  **method effectively**  **reduces the**  **size of**  **the market** 

**affected by**  **energy conservation**  **standards. DOE**  **estimates that**  **the market**  **penetration of**  **these**

**emerging technologies**  **(e.g., SSL,**  **CMH, etc.)**  **will be**  **50 percent**  **of the**  **commercial and** 

**residential IRL**  **sockets in**  **the installed**  **base by**  **2042.**

9.3 BASE­CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS

**This section**  **does the**  **following: 1)**  **describes the**  **base­case input**  **market­share matrices** 

**for GSFL**  **and IRL,**  **2) presents**  **the base­case**  **forecasts for**  **each lamp**  **type along**  **with historical** 

**lamp shipments**  **data, and**  **3) presents**  **base­case forecasts**  **for each**  **lamp type**  **specifically for**  **each**

**lamp design**  **and lamp­and­ballast**  **design. The**  **base­case input**  **market­share matrices**  **correspond**

**to the**  **matrices introduced**  **above in**  **Section 9.2.** 

9.3.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

9.3.1.1 Historical Shipments

**As discussed**  **in Chapter**  **3, DOE**  **received historical**  **shipments of**  **GSFL from**  **2001 to** 

**2005 from**  **NEMA. These**  **shipments were**  **broken down**  **by lamp**  **length, diameter,**  **shape, and** 

**high output.**  **Recognizing that**  **these shipment**  **estimates reflect**  **only the**  **shipments of**  **NEMA**

**members, DOE**  **increases these**  **estimates to**  **account for**  **the volume**  **of GSFL**  **that non­NEMA** 

**lamp companies**  **import or**  **manufacture. DOE**  **believes that**  **these NEMA**  **shipments represent** 

**about 90**  **percent of**  **the GSFL**  **market. Table**  **9.3.1 provides**  **historical GSFL**  **shipments estimates** 

**for the**  **entire U.S.**  **market.**

Table 9.3.1 GSFL Total Historical Shipments (millions)

**9­5**Year 4­foot T12

medium

bipin 4­foot T8

medium

bipin 8­foot T12

single pin

slimline 8­foot T8

single pin

slimline 8­foot T12

recessed double

contact HO 8­foot T8 recessed

double contact

HO

2001 **236.2 182.4**  **48.1 4.9**  **26.5 0.7** 

2002 **228.9 181.8**  **46.0 5.9**  **27.1 0.6** 

2003 **202.1 191.4**  **41.3 5.8**  **26.9 0.5** 

2004 **195.4 217.4**  **40.3 6.4**  **27.3 0.7** 

2005 **180.7 239.5**  **37.4 5.8**  **28.3 0.4** 

9.3.1.2 Shipments Projections to 2011 and Calculations of 2011 Lamp and Ballast

Stocks

**To forecast**  **GSFL shipments**  **from 2012**  **to 2042,**  **DOE first**  **estimates lamp**  **and ballast** 

**stocks in**  **2011 (the**  **year before**  **the effective**  **date of**  **the standard)**  **of T8**  **and T12**  **4­foot medium** 

**bipin GSFL,**  **8­foot single**  **pin slimline**  **GSFL, and**  **8­foot recessed**  **double contact**  **HO GSFL.**  **To**

**calculate 2011**  **lamp stocks,**  **DOE linearly**  **fits and**  **extrapolates historical**  **lamp shipments**  **to**

**2011. For**  **4­foot T8**  **medium bipin,**  **8­foot T8**  **single pin**  **slimline, and**  **8­foot recessed**  **double**

**contact HO**  **lamps, DOE**  **calculates the**  **2011 lamp**  **stock by**  **summing annual**  **shipments backward** 

**from 2011**  **for the**  **years that**  **correspond to**  **the service**  **lifetime (i.e.,**  **the lifetime**  **in hours**  **divided**

**by operating**  **hours per**  **year) of**  **each lamp**  **type. DOE**  **disregards the**  **2011 stock**  **of 8­foot**  **T8**

**recessed double**  **contact HO**  **lamps in**  **its analysis**  **because the**  **stock was**  **relatively small.**  **Using**

**the 2011**  **lamp stocks,**  **DOE calculates**  **installed ballast**  **stocks by**  **dividing the**  **total stocks**  **of**

**lamps by**  **the number**  **of lamps**  **per ballast**  **system. Finally,**  **to accurately**  **forecast lamp**  **and ballast** 

**shipments, DOE**  **establishes a**  **ballast age**  **distribution for**  **the installed**  **ballast stocks.**  **For 4­foot** 

**T8 medium**  **bipin and**  **8­foot single**  **pin slimline**  **ballasts, DOE**  **bases its**  **ballast age**  **distribution on** 

**growth in**  **historical lamp**  **shipments and**  **the 1.6**  **percent lumen**  **growth assumption**  **in the** 

**commercial sector.**  **Because historical**  **shipments indicate**  **that the**  **8­foot recessed**  **double contact** 

**HO market**  **is relatively**  **flat, DOE**  **uses a**  **constant ballast**  **age distribution**  **for these**  **ballast**

**systems.**

**Based on**  **manufacturer interviews,**  **DOE assumes**  **4­foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **and 8­foot**  **T12**

**single pin**  **slimline GSFL**  **represent lamp**  **shipments for**  **installation on**  **magnetic ballasts.**  **DOE**

**assumes that**  **historical shipments**  **of all**  **other GSFL**  **represented lamps**  **shipped for**  **installation on** 

**electronic ballasts.**  **As discussed**  **in Chapter**  **3, the**  **2000 rule**  **on GSFL**  **ballasts, 62**  **FR 56740,**  **and**

**the Energy**  **Policy Act**  **of 2005**  **(EPACT 2005),**  **Pub. L.**  **109­058, effectively**  **bans the**  **sale of**  **all**

**4­foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **and 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin slimline**  **magnetic ballasts**  **in 2010**  **and after.** 

**As this**  **will significantly**  **affect magnetic**  **ballast (and**  **their corresponding**  **lamp) shipment**  **trends,**

**DOE extrapolates**  **historical lamp**  **shipments for**  **4­foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **and 8­foot**  **T12 single** 

**pin slimline**  **to 2009.**  **Then, in**  **a similar**  **manner as**  **discussed earlier,**  **DOE estimates**  **a 2009**  **lamp**

**and ballast**  **stock for**  **these lamps.**  **DOE establishes**  **the corresponding**  **ballast age**  **distributions**

**based on**  **the decline**  **in magnetic**  **ballast shipments**  **obtained from**  **2002 and**  **2005 U.S.**  **Census**

**Bureau data.**  **6,7 DOE**  **then ages**  **this lamp**  **and ballast**  **stock by**  **two years,**  **assuming no**  **additional**

**magnetic ballast**  **shipments, to**  **obtain a**  **2011 lamp**  **and ballast**  **stock. Table**  **9.3.2 provides**  **lamp**

**and ballast**  **stocks in**  **2011 for**  **all analyzed**  **GSFL.**

**9­6**Table 9.3.2 2011 Lamp and Ballast Stocks (millions)

System Type Lamp Stock Ballast

Stock Ballasts in

First Year of

Service Ballasts Halfway

through Service

Lifetime* Ballasts in

Last Year of

Service

4­foot T8 medium bipin **1,669.7 556.6**  **21.4 41.2**  **58.1**

4­foot T12 medium

bipin **625.9 208.6**  **0 14.0**  **29.7**

8­foot T8 single pin

slimline **28.1 14.1**  **1.2 1.0**  **0.8**

8­foot T12 single pin

slimline **71.5 35.8**  **0 2.4**  **5.1**

8­foot T8 recessed

double contact HO **0.9 N/A**  **N/A N/A**  **N/A**

8­foot T12 recessed

double contact HO **62.6 31.3**  **3.1 3.1**  **3.1**

***** **Fifth year**  **of service**  **for 8­foot**  **recessed double**  **contact HO**  **systems and**  **seventh year**  **of service**  **for all**  **other**

**system types** 

9.3.1.3 Base­Case Market­Share Matrices

**As discussed**  **in the**  **engineering analysis**  **(Chapter 5)**  **and the**  **LCC and**  **PBP analyses** 

**(Chapter 8),**  **consumers have**  **a variety**  **of choices**  **in lamp**  **and lamp­and­ballast**  **systems. When** 

**choosing lighting**  **systems, consumers**  **often make**  **their choices**  **considering lamp**  **attributes such** 

**as lifetime,**  **efficacy, price,**  **lumen output,**  **rated wattage,**  **and total**  **system power.**  **As discussed** 

**earlier, the**  **shipments for**  **GSFL depend**  **on such**  **input assumptions**  **as lamp**  **lifetime and**  **system**

**lumen output.**  **In addition,**  **other lamp**  **or lamp­and­ballast**  **system properties**  **such as**  **price and** 

**energy consumption**  **are key**  **inputs to**  **the NES**  **and NPV**  **calculations. Therefore,**  **within each** 

**product class,**  **DOE believes**  **it necessary**  **to directly**  **account for**  **the mix**  **of technologies**  **that**

**consumers select**  **in the**  **base case**  **and standards**  **case. To**  **account for**  **the range**  **of possible** 

**consumer choices,**  **DOE develops**  **and populates**  **technology market­share**  **matrices. These** 

**market­share matrices**  **allocate percentage**  **market shares**  **to each**  **lamp­and­ballast design**  **for the** 

**base case**  **and standards**  **case by**  **proportioning shipments.**  **As discussed**  **in the**  **NIA (Chapter**  **10),**

**the base­case**  **and standards­case**  **efficacy forecasts**  **also depend**  **on the**  **market­share matrices.** 

**The GSFL**  **shipments model**  **incorporates several**  **separate market­share**  **matrices to** 

**characterize shipments**  **of lamps**  **and lamp­and­ballast**  **systems at**  **different times**  **during the** 

**analysis period.**  **Because the**  **lamp design**  **technology mix**  **may change**  **over time,**  **DOE defines** 

**separate market­share**  **matrices for**  **systems purchased**  **in 2012**  **and earlier**  **and for**  **systems**

**purchased in**  **2042 for**  **each analyzed**  **system type**  **(e.g., 4­foot**  **T8 medium**  **bipin). To**  **determine**

**the technology**  **mix of**  **the shipments**  **for the**  **intermediate years**  **of the**  **analysis period,**  **DOE used** 

**a linear**  **progression from**  **2012 to**  **2042. For**  **each lamp**  **type and**  **market­share matrix,**  **DOE**

**generates the**  **lamp­and­ballast designs**  **by pairing**  **each lamp**  **design (as**  **presented in**  **Chapter 5)** 

**with commercially**  **available ballasts**  **that exhibit**  **the most**  **common ballast**  **factors. This** 

**produces both**  **energy­saving and**  **non­energy­saving options.** 

**Table 9.3.3**  **through Table**  **9.3.8 illustrate**  **the base­case**  **market­share matrices**  **for GSFL.** 

**DOE is**  **developing the**  **percentage inputs**  **to these**  **matrices based**  **on discussions**  **with**

**manufacturers and**  **industry experts.**  **In addition,**  **DOE is**  **analyzing the**  **quantities of** 

**9­7 commercially**  **available product**  **to develop**  **the breakdown**  **of percentage**  **shipments by**  **lamp**

**efficacy. As**  **Table 9.3.3,**  **Table 9.3.5,**  **and Table**  **9.3.8 indicate,**  **DOE assumes**  **that in**  **the base** 

**case, the**  **technology mix**  **of 4­foot**  **T8 medium**  **bipin, 8­foot**  **T8 single**  **pin slimline,**  **and 8­foot** 

**T12 recessed**  **double contact**  **HO lamp­and­ballast**  **designs is**  **constant over**  **the analysis**  **period.**

Table 9.3.3 Base­Case Market­Share Matrix for Four­Foot T8 Medium Bipin Systems

CSL Lamp

Efficacy Lamp

Wattage Lamp

Lifetime System

Input

Power Installed

Lamp

Price Mix of

Systems

Purchased

in 2012 and

Earlier

% Mix of

Systems

Purchased

in 2042

% lm/W* W hrs W $

**2 86.2**  **32.5 20,000**  **87.5 3.93**  **43 8** 

**3 90.8**  **32.5 20,000**  **87.5 4.96**  **29 10** 

**4 92.3**  **32.5 24,000**  **87.5 5.10**  **11 14** 0.88 **4 95.0**  **30.0 18,000**  **80.5 5.39**  **0 3** 

**5 95.4**  **32.5 24,000**  **87.5 5.62**  **7 12** 

**5 97.3**  **28.0 18,000**  **71.1 5.19**  **0 3** 

**5 96.0**  **25.0 24,000**  **66.8 6.64**  **0 4** 

**2 86.2**  **32.5 20,000**  **78.5 3.93**  **0 4** ElectronicBallastFactor

**3 90.8**  **32.5 20,000**  **78.5 4.96**  **0 0** 

**4 92.3**  **32.5 24,000**  **78.5 5.10**  **0 6** 0.78 **4 95.0**  **30.0 18,000**  **72.4 5.39**  **2 6** 

**5 95.4**  **32.5 24,000**  **78.5 5.62**  **0 6** 

**5 97.3**  **28.0 18,000**  **63.3 5.19**  **3 7** 

**5 96.0**  **25.0 24,000**  **58.1 6.64**  **0 4** 

**2 86.2**  **32.5 20,000**  **75.9 3.93**  **0 0** 

**3 90.8**  **32.5 20,000**  **75.9 4.96**  **0 0** 

**4 92.3**  **32.5 24,000**  **75.9 5.10**  **0 0** 0.75 **4 95.0**  **30.0 18,000**  **70.0 5.39**  **2 6** 

**5 95.4**  **32.5 24,000**  **75.9 5.62**  **0 0** 

**5 97.3**  **28.0 18,000**  **60.9 5.19**  **3 7** 

**5 96.0**  **25.0 24,000**  **55.5 6.64**  **0 0** 

Total 100 100

***** **lm/W**

**= lumens**  **per watt** 

**9­8**Table 9.3.4 Base­Case Market­Share Matrix for Four­Foot T12 Medium Bipin Systems

CSL Lamp

Efficacy Lamp

Wattage Lamp

Lifetime System

Input

Power Installed

Lamp

Price Mix of

Systems

Purchased

before

2010*

% lm/W W hrs W $MagneticBallast **0**

**0**

**1**

**1**

**2**

**2**

**3**

**3 80.0** 

**77.9**

**82.5**

**82.4**

**85.0**

**85.3**

**90.0**

**91.2 40** 

**34**

**40**

**34**

**40**

**34**

**40**

**34 20,000** 

**20,000**

**20,000**

**20,000**

**24,000**

**20,000**

**24,000**

**24,000 129** 

**108**

**129**

**108**

**129**

**108**

**129**

**108 4.60** 

**3.68**

**6.80**

**4.91**

**8.35**

**7.25**

**8.45**

**8.32 12** 

**44**

**8**

**14**

**6**

**8**

**5**

**3**

Total 100

***** **In 2010,**  **the sale**  **of magnetic**  **4­foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **ballasts is**  **banned.**

**9­9**Table 9.3.5 Base­Case Market­Share Matrix for Eight­Foot T8 Single Pin Slimline Systems

CSL Lamp

Efficacy Lamp

Wattage Lamp

Lifetime System

Input

Power Installed

Lamp

Price Mix of

Systems

Purchased

in 2012 and

Earlier

% Mix of

Systems

Purchased

in 2042

% lm/W W hrs W $

**3 94.8**  **60.1 15,000**  **112.8 6.31**  **30 6** 

**4 98.2**  **60.1 15,000**  **112.8 8.50**  **32 11** 0.88 **5 101.5**  **60.1 18,000**  **112.8 9.35**  **8 11** 

**5 101.8**  **57.0 24,000**  **107.5 8.69**  **0 6** ElectronicBallastFactor **5 103.6**  **55.0 18,000**  **102.0 8.28**  **0 6** 

**3 94.8**  **60.1 15,000**  **109.1 6.31**  **7 7** 

**4 98.2**  **60.1 15,000**  **109.1 8.50**  **8 8** 0.85 **5 101.5**  **60.1 18,000**  **109.1 9.35**  **0 6** 

**5 101.8**  **57.0 24,000**  **106.0 8.69**  **0 6** 

**5 103.6**  **55.0 18,000**  **98.5 8.28**  **0 6** 

**3 94.8**  **60.1 15,000**  **100.4 6.31**  **7 7** 

**4 98.2**  **60.1 15,000**  **100.4 8.50**  **8 8** 0.78 **5 101.5**  **60.1 18,000**  **100.4 9.35**  **0 6** 

**5 101.8**  **57.0 24,000**  **102.5 8.69**  **0 3** 

**5 103.6**  **55.0 18,000**  **90.2 8.28**  **0 3** 

Total 100 100

Table 9.3.6 Base­Case Market­Share Matrix for Eight­Foot T12 Single Pin Slimline

Systems

CSL Lamp

Efficacy Lamp

Wattage Lamp

Lifetime System

Input

Power Installed

Lamp

Price Mix of

Systems

Purchased

before

2010*

% lm/W W hrs W $MagneticBallast **0**

**1**

**1**

**2**

**2**

**3 85.6** 

**87.3**

**87.6**

**92.0**

**92.6**

**97.5 75.0** 

**75.0**

**60.5**

**75.0**

**60.5**

**60.5 12,000** 

**12,000**

**12,000**

**15,000**

**12,000**

**15,000 158** 

**158**

**126**

**158**

**126**

**126 8.02** 

**11.20**

**5.60**

**12.15**

**7.94**

**9.65 32** 

**29**

**12**

**2**

**17**

**8**

Total 100

***** **In 2010,**  **the sale**  **of magnetic**  **8­foot T12**  **single pin**  **slimline ballasts**  **is banned.** 

**9­10**Table 9.3.7 Base­Case Market­Share Matrix for Four­Foot T8 Medium Bipin Systems

Replacing 8­foot T12 Single Pin Slimline Systems

CSL Lamp

Efficacy Lamp

Wattage Lamp

Lifetime System

Input

Power Installed

Lamp

Price Mix of

Systems

Purchased

in 2012

% Mix of

Systems

Purchased

in 2042

% lm/W W hrs W $

**2 86.2**  **32.5 20,000**  **117.0 4.91**  **43 8** 

**3 90.8**  **32.5 20,000**  **117.0 5.94**  **29 10** 

**4 92.3**  **32.5 24,000**  **117.0 6.08**  **11 14** 0.88 **4 95.0**  **30.0 18,000**  **109.4 6.37**  **0 3** 

**5 95.4**  **32.5 24,000**  **117.0 6.61**  **7 12** 

**5 97.3**  **28.0 18,000**  **95.6 6.17**  **0 3** 

**5 96.0**  **25.0 24,000**  **87.9 7.62**  **0 4** 

**2 86.2**  **32.5 20,000**  **103.8 4.91**  **0 4** ElectronicBallastFactor

**3 90.8**  **32.5 20,000**  **103.8 5.94**  **0 0** 

**4 92.3**  **32.5 24,000**  **103.8 6.08**  **0 6** 0.78 **4 95.0**  **30.0 18,000**  **98.2 6.37**  **2 6** 

**5 95.4**  **32.5 24,000**  **103.8 6.61**  **0 6** 

**5 97.3**  **28.0 18,000**  **85.0 6.17**  **3 7** 

**5 96.0**  **25.0 24,000**  **77.8 7.62**  **0 4** 

**2 86.2**  **32.5 20,000**  **99.8 4.91**  **0 0** 

**3 90.8**  **32.5 20,000**  **99.8 5.94**  **0 0** 

**4 92.3**  **32.5 24,000**  **99.8 6.08**  **0 0** 0.75 **4 95.0**  **30.0 18,000**  **94.8 6.37**  **2 6** 

**5 95.4**  **32.5 24,000**  **99.8 6.61**  **0 0** 

**5 97.3**  **28.0 18,000**  **82.0 6.17**  **3 7** 

**5 96.0**  **25.0 24,000**  **74.8 7.62**  **0 0** 

Total 100 100

**9­11**Table 9.3.8 Base­Case Market­Share Matrix for Eight­Foot T12 Recessed Double Contact

High Output Initial and New Ballast Systems

CSL Lamp

Efficacy Lamp

Wattage Lamp

Lifetime System

Input

Power Installed

Lamp

Price Mix of

Systems

Purchased

in 2012 and

Earlier

% Mix of

Systems

Purchased

in 2042

% lm/W W hrs W $

**0 82.3**  **110 12,000**  **205.4 9.78**  **13 3** 

**0 82.5**  **97 12,000**  **177.0 6.88**  **5 2** 0.88 **1 85.5**  **110 12,000**  **205.4 15.56**  **7 8** 

**2 86.1**  **97 12,000**  **177.0 9.94**  **3 6** 

**3 87.6**  **97 12,000**  **177.0 16.10**  **4 9** ElectronicBallastFactor **3 88.9**  **97 12,000**  **177.0 16.41**  **2 4** 

**0 80.1**  **110 12,000**  **208.4 9.78**  **13 3** 

**0 82.5**  **97 12,000**  **181.3 6.88**  **5 2** 0.89 **1 83.2**  **110 12,000**  **208.4 15.56**  **7 9** 

**2 86.1**  **97 12,000**  **181.3 9.94**  **2 9** 

**3 87.6**  **97 12,000**  **181.3 16.10**  **4 8** 

**3 88.9**  **97 12,000**  **181.3 16.41**  **2 4** 

**0 80.1**  **110 12,000**  **211.5 9.78**  **13 3** 

**0 82.5**  **97 12,000**  **185.6 6.88**  **5 2** 0.90 **1 83.2**  **110 12,000**  **211.5 15.56**  **7 8** 

**2 86.1**  **97 12,000**  **185.6 9.94**  **2 6** 

**3 87.6**  **97 12,000**  **185.6 16.10**  **4 8** 

**3 88.9**  **97 12,000**  **185.6 16.41**  **2 6** 

Total 100 100

9.3.1.4 Base­Case Forecast Results

**Figure 9.3.1,**  **Figure 9.3.2,**  **and Figure**  **9.3.3 present**  **the base­case**  **shipments forecasts** 

**from 2012**  **to 2042**  **with historical**  **shipments from**  **2001 to**  **2005 and**  **projected shipments**  **from**

**2006 to**  **2011. Figure**  **9.3.1, Figure**  **9.3.2, and**  **Figure 9.3.3**  **correspond to**  **4­foot medium**  **bipin**

**shipments, 8­foot**  **single pin**  **slimline shipments,**  **and 8­foot**  **recessed double**  **contact HO** 

**shipments, respectively.** 

**In accordance**  **with historical**  **shipment data,**  **Figure 9.3.1**  **shows a**  **decline in**  **shipments of** 

**4­foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **lamps. These**  **retired 4­foot**  **T12 medium**  **bipin lamp­and­ballast** 

**systems are**  **replaced with**  **4­foot T8**  **medium bipin**  **lamp­and­ballast systems**  **upon ballast** 

**retirement. As**  **discussed earlier,**  **DOE forecasts**  **that 90**  **percent of**  **retired 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin**

**slimline systems**  **will be**  **replaced with**  **4­foot T8**  **medium bipin**  **lamp systems.**  **Along with**  **the 4­** 

**9­12**

### 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0Shipments(billions) 4­foot T8 MBP Base­Case Forecast

4­foot T8 MBP Projection

4­foot T8 MBP Historical Shipments

4­foot T12 MBP Base­Case Forecast

4­foot T12 MBP Projection

4­foot T12 MBP Historical Shipments **foot T8**  **systems purchased**  **for new**  **construction, this**  **accounts for**  **the increase**  **in 4­foot**  **T8**

**medium bipin**  **shipments through**  **the analysis**  **period.**



### 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Year

Figure 9.3.1 Four­Foot Medium Bipin Historical, Projected, and Base­Case Forecasted

Shipments

***** **MBP**

**= medium**  **bipin**

**9­13 In**  **accordance with**  **historical shipment**  **data, Figure**  **9.3.2 shows**  **a decline**  **in shipments**  **of**

**8­foot T12**  **single pin**  **slimline lamps.**  **Ten percent**  **of these**  **retired 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin slimline** 

**lamp­and­ballast systems**  **are replaced**  **with 8­foot**  **T8 single**  **pin slimline**  **lamp­and­ballast**

**systems upon**  **ballast retirement.**  **This accounts**  **for the**  **growth in**  **8­foot T8**  **single pin**  **slimline**

**lamp shipments**  **until 2025.**  **After 2025,**  **all 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin slimline**  **lamp­and­ballast**

**systems have**  **been replaced**  **and the**  **T8 shipments**  **remain constant.** 



### 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06Shipments(billions) 8­foot T8 SP Base­Case Forecast

8­foot T8 SP Projection

8­foot T8 SP Historical Shipments

8­foot T12 SP Base­Case Forecast

8­foot T12 SP Projection

8­foot T12 SP Historical Shipments



### 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Year

Figure 9.3.2 Eight­Foot Single Pin Slimline Historical, Projected, and Base­Case

Forecasted Shipments

***** **SP**

**= single**  **pin**

**9­14 In**  **accordance with**  **historical shipment**  **data, Figure**  **9.3.3 shows**  **that 8­foot**  **T12 recessed** 

**double contact**  **HO lamp**  **shipments are**  **flat. As**  **discussed earlier,**  **DOE decided**  **not to**  **model the** 

**2011 stock**  **of 8­foot**  **T8 recessed**  **double contact**  **HO lamps,**  **resulting in**  **zero forecasted** 

**shipments in**  **the base**  **case.**



### 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04Shipments(billions)

8­foot T8 RDC HO Base­Case Forecast

8­foot T8 RDC HO Projection

8­foot T8 RDC HO Historical Shipments

8­foot T12 RDC HO Base­Case Forecast

8­foot T12 RDC HO Projection

8­foot T12 RDC HO Historical Shipments



### 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Year

Figure 9.3.3 Eight­Foot Recessed Double Contact High Output Historical, Projected, and

Base­Case Forecasted Shipments

***** **RDC**

**= recessed**  **double contact,**  **HO**

**= high**  **output**

9.3.1.5 Base­Case Forecast by Market Segment

**Figure 9.3.4,**  **Figure 9.3.5,**  **and Figure**  **9.3.6 present**  **the base­case**  **shipments forecast**  **by**

**market segment**  **(i.e., lamp**  **replacement, ballast**  **replacement, or**  **new construction)**  **for 4­foot** 

**medium bipin**  **lamps, 8­foot**  **single pin**  **slimline lamps,**  **and 8­foot**  **recessed double**  **contact HO** 

**lamps, respectively.**  **Figure 9.3.4**  **shows that**  **although DOE**  **accounts for**  **shipments due**  **to new** 

**construction, lamp**  **shipments due**  **to replacing**  **a failed**  **lamp and**  **failed ballast**  **dominate this** 

**market. In**  **addition, lamp**  **replacement shipments**  **are greater**  **than ballast**  **replacement shipments** 

**for all**  **three product**  **classes of**  **GSFL. This**  **effect is**  **due to**  **the much**  **longer lifetime,**  **and**

**therefore fewer**  **replacements of**  **ballasts versus**  **lamps.**

**9­15**0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00Shipments(billions) New Construction

Ballast Replacement

Lamp Replacement

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042

Year

Figure 9.3.4 Four­Foot Medium Bipin Base­Case Shipment Forecast by Market Segment

**9­16**0.0000 0.0050 0.0100 0.0150 0.0200 0.0250 0.0300Shipments(billions) Ballast Replacement

Lamp Replacement

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042

Year

Figure 9.3.5 Eight­Foot Single Pin Slimline Base­Case Shipments Forecast by Market

Segment

**9­17**0.03500Shipments(billions) 0.03000

0.02500

0.02000

0.01500

0.01000

0.00500

0.00000 Ballast Replacement

Lamp Replacement

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042

Year

Figure 9.3.6 8­Foot Recessed Double Contact High Output Base­Case Shipments Forecast

by Market Segment

9.3.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

9.3.2.1 Historical Shipments

**As discussed**  **in Chapter**  **3, DOE**  **received historical**  **shipments of**  **IRL aggregated**  **for the** 

**commercial and**  **residential sectors**  **from 2001**  **to 2005**  **from NEMA.**  **NEMA broke**  **these**

**shipments down**  **into parabolic**  **reflector (PAR)**  **incandescent, reflector**  **(R) incandescent,**  **PAR38**

**halogen, and**  **PAR30 and**  **PAR20 halogen**  **lamps. Recognizing**  **that these**  **shipment estimates** 

**only reflect**  **shipments of**  **NEMA members,**  **DOE increases**  **these estimates**  **to account**  **for the** 

**volume of**  **IRLs that**  **are imported**  **or manufactured**  **by non­NEMA**  **lamp companies.**  **DOE**

**believes that**  **these NEMA**  **shipments represent**  **approximately 85**  **percent of**  **the IRL**  **market.**

**Because certain**  **ER, BR,**  **and R**  **shaped IRL**  **(** e.g. **BR 30**  **and BR40**  **65 Watt)**  **are exempted** 

**from energy**  **conservation standards,**  **DOE estimated**  **the market**  **share of**  **these exemptions**  **by**

**using a**  **combination of**  **manufacturer product**  **catalog research**  **and additional**  **shipment data** 

**8 submitted**  **by NEMA. As**  **research indicated**  **that these**  **exemptions constitute**  **approximately 60** 

**percent of**  **all incandescent**  **(non­halogen) IRL**  **shipments, DOE**  **decreased the**  **NEMA historical** 

**incandescent shipments**  **accordingly.**

**9­18 In**  **addition, because**  **DOE’s IRL**  **shipment model**  **separately forecasts**  **IRL shipments**  **in**

**the commercial**  **and residential**  **sectors, DOE**  **estimates certain**  **portions of**  **IRL shipments**  **to each** 

**sector. DOE**  **used a**  **reflector lamp**  **study conducted**  **by the**  **New York**  **State Energy**  **Research and** 

**9 Development**  **Authority to approximate**  **that about**  **33 percent**  **of non­halogen**  **shipments serve** 

**the commercial**  **sector and**  **about 67**  **percent serve**  **the residential**  **sector. Similarly,**  **DOE**

**allocates 60**  **percent of**  **halogen lamp**  **shipments to**  **the commercial**  **sector and**  **40 percent**  **to the** 

**residential sector.** 

**Table 9.3.9**  **shows the**  **resulting historical**  **covered IRL**  **shipments estimates**  **for the**  **entire**

**U.S. market.** 

Table 9.3.9 IRL Historical Shipments (millions)

Year Commercial Residential

2001 **67 66** 

2002 **68 67** 

2003 **71 70** 

2004 **79 77** 

2005 **83 85** 

9.3.2.2 Shipments Projections to 2011 and Calculations of 2011 Lamp Stock

**To forecast**  **IRL shipments**  **from 2012**  **to 2042,**  **DOE first**  **estimates the**  **IRL stock**  **in 2011** 

**(before the**  **effective date**  **of the**  **standard). To**  **calculate 2011**  **lamp stock,**  **DOE linearly**  **fits and** 

**extrapolates historical**  **IRL shipments**  **in the**  **commercial and**  **residential sectors**  **to 2011.**  **DOE**

**calculates the**  **2011 lamp**  **stock by**  **summing annual**  **shipments backward**  **from 2011**  **for the**  **years**

**that correspond**  **to the**  **average lamp**  **service lifetime.**  **This average**  **lifetime is**  **based on**  **the**

**assumed base­case**  **technology mix**  **of IRL**  **in the**  **commercial and**  **residential sectors,**  **as indicated** 

**by the**  **market­share matrices**  **in section**  **9.3.2.3. In**  **addition, DOE**  **accounts for**  **efficacy**

**standards (effective**  **in 2008)**  **for small**  **diameter and**  **ER and**  **BR shaped**  **lamps, as**  **prescribed by** 

**the Energy**  **Independence and**  **Security Act**  **of 2007**  **(EISA 2007).**  **DOE expects**  **that these** 

**standards will**  **cause all**  **IRL covered**  **in this**  **rulemaking to**  **be of**  **halogen technology**  **by the**  **year**

**2008. Because**  **halogen lamps**  **generally have**  **longer lifetimes**  **than their**  **incandescent**

**counterparts, and**  **are therefore**  **replaced (and**  **shipped) less**  **often, DOE**  **applies a**  **lifetime­scaled**

**reduction to**  **its projection**  **of IRL**  **shipments after**  **2007. DOE**  **calculates that**  **the 2011**  **stock of** 

**covered IRL**  **is approximately**  **297 million**  **lamps in**  **the residential**  **sector and**  **77 million**  **lamps in** 

**the commercial**  **sector.**

9.3.2.3 Base­Case Market­Share Matrices

**As discussed**  **in the**  **engineering analysis**  **(Chapter 5)**  **and the**  **LCC analysis**  **(Chapter 8),** 

**consumers have**  **a variety**  **of choices**  **in IRL.**  **IRL shipments**  **strongly depend**  **on lamp**  **lifetime.**

**In addition,**  **other lamp**  **properties such**  **as price**  **and energy**  **consumption are**  **key inputs**  **to the** 

**NES and**  **NPV calculations.**  **Therefore, within**  **IRL in**  **the commercial**  **and residential**  **sectors,**

**DOE believes**  **it necessary**  **to directly**  **account for**  **the mix**  **of technologies**  **that consumers**  **select**

**in the**  **base case**  **and standards**  **case. To**  **account for**  **the range**  **of possible**  **consumer choices,** 

**9­19 DOE**  **develops and**  **populates technology**  **market­share matrices.**  **As discussed**  **in the**  **national**

**impact analysis**  **(NIA; Chapter**  **10), the**  **base­case and**  **standards­case efficacy**  **forecasts also** 

**depend on**  **the market­share**  **matrices.**

**The IRL**  **market­share matrices**  **allocate percentage**  **market shares**  **to each**  **IRL lamp** 

**design by**  **proportioning the**  **installed lamp**  **stock in**  **2011 and**  **2042. Given**  **these two**  **inputs,**

**DOE creates**  **a dynamic**  **base case**  **and assumes**  **that the**  **percentage stock**  **values change**  **linearly**

**through the**  **analysis period.**  **Once DOE**  **establishes the**  **percentage stock**  **in each**  **year, DOE**  **then**

**ships lamps**  **to maintain**  **the stock**  **distribution, taking**  **into account**  **lamp replacements**  **and new** 

**construction.**

**DOE develops**  **the percentage**  **inputs to**  **the base­case**  **market­share matrices**  **based on** 

**discussions with**  **industry experts**  **and an**  **examination of**  **manufacturer product**  **catalogs. As** 

**stated earlier,**  **DOE models**  **three separate**  **lumen packages**  **in the**  **commercial and**  **residential**

**sectors: 580,**  **1,050 and**  **1,310 lm.**  **These lumen**  **packages correspond**  **to the**  **50W, 75W,**  **and 90W** 

**baseline halogen**  **technologies, respectively.**  **An examination**  **of manufacturer**  **product catalogs** 

**indicates that**  **27 percent**  **of the**  **covered IRL**  **market is**  **at 580**  **lm, 32**  **percent is**  **at 1,050**  **lm, and** 

**51 percent**  **is at**  **1,310 lm.**  **DOE applies**  **these percentages**  **to the**  **2011 inputs**  **to the**  **base­case**

**market­share matrices**  **for the**  **commercial and**  **residential sectors.** 

**In addition,**  **based on**  **manufacturer interviews,**  **in the**  **commercial sector**  **DOE assumes** 

**that 80**  **percent of**  **the 2011**  **installed IRL**  **stock is**  **the halogen**  **baseline technology,**  **while the** 

**remaining 20**  **percent of**  **installed IRL**  **is of**  **the more**  **efficacious halogen**  **infrared (HIR)** 

**technology. As**  **DOE expects**  **a natural**  **migration toward**  **more efficacious**  **IRL, DOE**  **assumes**

**that the**  **installed IRL**  **stock in**  **the commercial**  **sector in**  **2042 is**  **50 percent**  **halogen and**  **50**

**percent halogen**  **infrared. In**  **contrast, in**  **the residential**  **sector, in**  **the base**  **case DOE**  **assumes that** 

**100 percent**  **of installed**  **IRL is**  **halogen technology**  **in 2011**  **and remains**  **constant throughout**  **the**

**analysis period.** 

**Table 9.3.10**  **and Table**  **9.3.11 provide**  **the base­case**  **market­share matrices**  **for IRL**  **in the** 

**commercial and**  **residential sectors.** 

Table 9.3.10 Base­Case Market­Share Matrix for Commercial IRL Sockets

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design Price with

Sales Tax

$ Stock in

2011

% Stock in

2042

%

**90W, 14.6**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **6.16 33**  **21**

**75W, 14.0**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **6.16 26**  **16**

**50W, 11.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.56 22**  **14**

Base Case **70W, 18.0**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 8**  **21**

**60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 6**  **16**

**41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.12 5**  **14**

Total 100 100

**9­20**Table 9.3.11 Base­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design Price with

Sales Tax

$ Stock in

2011

% Stock in

2042

%

**90W, 14.6**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 41**  **41**

Base Case **75W, 14.0**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 32**  **32**

**50W, 11.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Halogen**  **4.52 27**  **27**

Total 100 100

9.3.2.4 Base­Case Forecast Results

**Figure 9.3.7**  **and Figure**  **9.3.8 depict**  **the base­case**  **shipment forecasts**  **for commercial**  **and**

**residential IRL**  **from 2012**  **to 2042,**  **with historical**  **shipments from**  **2001 to**  **2005 and**  **projected**

**shipments from**  **2006 to**  **2011. The**  **forecasted shipments**  **in both**  **the commercial**  **and residential** 

**sectors decrease**  **over the**  **analysis period.**  **DOE believes**  **that there**  **are three**  **reasons why**  **IRL**

**shipments would**  **decrease over**  **time:**

**1) increased**  **penetration of**  **CFL and**  **other long­lived**  **emerging technologies** 

**2) a**  **shift toward**  **longer­lasting HIR**  **technologies in**  **both the**  **commercial sector,** 

**lowering the**  **frequency of**  **replacements**

**3) historical**  **growth in**  **IRL stock**  **(approximately 8**  **to 10**  **percent annually),**  **which is** 

**significantly higher**  **than the**  **historical growth**  **rate in**  **building floor**  **space (1.6** 

**percent annually**  **in the**  **commercial sector**  **and 1.3**  **percent annually**  **in the** 

**residential sector).** 

**DOE believes**  **this high**  **historical growth**  **rate in**  **IRL stock**  **is unsustainable**  **in the**  **long term.** 

**Instead, DOE**  **bases IRL**  **socket growth**  **after 2011**  **on the**  **historical growth**  **in building**  **floor**

**space. This**  **decrease in**  **stock growth**  **contributes to**  **the decline**  **in IRL**  **shipments.**

**9­21**

### 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12Shipments(billions)

Base­Case Forecast

Shipments Projection

Historical Shipments



### 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Year

Figure 9.3.7 Commercial IRL Historical, Projected, and Base­Case Forecasted Shipments

**9­22**Shipments(billions) 

### 0.12

0.10

Base­Case Forecast

Shipments Projection

Historical Shipments 

### 0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Year

Figure 9.3.8 Residential IRL Historical, Projected, and Base­Case Forecasted Shipments

9.3.2.5 Base­Case Forecast by Market Segment

**Figure 9.3.9**  **depicts the**  **base­case shipments**  **forecast by**  **market segment**  **for IRL**  **sockets**

**in the**  **residential and**  **commercial sector.**  **As seen**  **in the**  **figure, DOE**  **accounts for**  **both lamp** 

**replacements and**  **new construction.**  **However, lamp**  **shipments due**  **to replacing**  **a failed**  **lamp**

**dominate this**  **market.**

**9­23**

### 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25Shipments(billions) Shipments due to New Construction

Shipments due to Replacements



### 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042

Year

Figure 9.3.9 Commercial and Residential IRL Base­Case Shipments Forecast by Market

Segment

9.4 STANDARDS­CASE INPUTS

9.4.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

9.4.1.1 Shipments Scenarios

**To characterize**  **consumer behavior**  **in the**  **standards case,**  **DOE is**  **considering many** 

**lamp­and­ballast system**  **properties that**  **consumers take**  **into account**  **when purchasing**  **their**

**commercial GSFL**  **system. Specifically,**  **DOE regards**  **system price,**  **system energy**  **consumption,**

**and system**  **lumen output**  **as three**  **key drivers**  **of consumer**  **purchases. To**  **characterize consumers** 

**that may**  **weigh each**  **factor differently,**  **DOE is**  **developing two**  **shipment scenarios**  **for**

**fluorescent lamps:**  **“roll­up” and**  **“shift.” The**  **roll­up scenario**  **represents the**  **standards case,** 

**assuming that**  **all product**  **efficacies in**  **the base**  **case that**  **do not**  **meet the**  **standard would**  **roll up** 

**to meet**  **the new**  **standard level.**  **Those product**  **efficacies that**  **were above**  **the standard**  **level are** 

**considered unaffected.**  **Therefore, consumers**  **continue to**  **purchase the**  **same base­case**  **lamp or** 

**lamp system.**  **The roll­up**  **scenario characterizes**  **consumers primarily**  **driven by**  **the first­cost**  **of**

**the lamp,**  **and they**  **are restricted**  **to replacing**  **their base­case**  **lamp with**  **an equal**  **wattage lamp** 

**when possible.**  **The shift**  **scenario models**  **the standards**  **case, assuming**  **that all**  **base­case**

**9­24 consumer**  **GSFL purchases**  **are affected**  **by the**  **standard (whether**  **or not**  **their base­case**  **efficacy**

**meets the**  **standard). In**  **this scenario,**  **any consumer**  **may purchase**  **a reduced**  **wattage lamp.**  **The**

**shift scenario**  **characterizes consumers**  **primarily concerned**  **with system**  **energy consumption.** 

**The following**  **discussion presents**  **the decision­making**  **process characterized**  **by the**  **roll**

**up scenario.**  **Lamp­and­ballast designs**  **from which**  **consumers choose**  **are presented**  **in the** 

**market­share matrices.** 

**1) If**  **consumers buy**  **a system**  **in the**  **base case**  **that complies**  **with the**  **standard, they**  **then**

**buy the**  **base­case system.** 

**2) If**  **consumers do**  **not buy**  **a standards­compliant**  **system in**  **the base**  **case, they**  **then**

**a. consider**  **only systems**  **that have**  **a lumen**  **output that**  **is within**  **10 percent**  **of the** 

**base lumen**  **output;**

**b. select**  **the lowest**  **first­cost lamp­and­ballast**  **design; or** 

**c. if**  **there are**  **two lamp­and­ballast**  **designs with**  **equal installed**  **prices, they**  **select**

**the one**  **with a**  **lumen output**  **that is**  **closest to**  **the base­case**  **lumen output.** 

**The following**  **discussion presents**  **the decision­making**  **process characterized**  **by the**  **shift**

**scenario.**

**1) If**  **consumers buy**  **the least**  **efficacious lamp­and­ballast**  **design in**  **the base**  **case, they** 

**then**

**a. consider**  **only systems**  **that have**  **a lumen**  **output that**  **is within**  **10 percent**  **of the** 

**base lumen**  **output;**

**b. select**  **the lowest**  **first­cost lamp­and­ballast**  **design; or** 

**c. if**  **there are**  **two lamp­and­ballast**  **designs with**  **equal installed**  **prices, they**  **select**

**the one**  **with a**  **lumen output**  **that is**  **closest to**  **the base­case**  **lumen output.** 

**2) If**  **consumers do**  **not buy**  **the least**  **efficacious lamp­and­ballast**  **design in**  **the base**  **case,**

**they then** 

**a. never**  **buy a**  **system that**  **has a**  **greater input**  **power than**  **the base­case**  **system;**

**b. consider**  **only systems**  **that have**  **a lumen**  **output within**  **10 percent**  **of the**  **base­case**

**lumen output.**  **If none**  **exist, buy**  **the base­case**  **system (if**  **it is**  **standards**

**compliant);**

**c. consider**  **only systems**  **that use**  **less input**  **power than**  **the base­case**  **system. If** 

**none exist,**  **they buy**  **the lowest**  **first­cost (if**  **two lamp­and­ballast**  **designs have** 

**equal installed**  **prices, select**  **the one**  **with a**  **lumen output**  **that is**  **closest to**  **the**

**base­case lumen**  **output);**

**d. select**  **the lowest**  **first­cost lamp­and­ballast**  **design; or** 

**e. if**  **there are**  **two lamp­and­ballast**  **designs with**  **equal installed**  **prices, select**  **the one** 

**with a**  **lumen output**  **that is**  **closest to**  **the base­case**  **lumen output.** 

9.4.1.2 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrices

**Similar to**  **in the**  **base case,**  **DOE is**  **constructing market­share**  **matrices to**  **characterize**

**shipments of**  **lamps and**  **lamp­and­ballast systems**  **in the**  **standards case.**  **These market­share** 

**matrices provide**  **the same**  **lamp­and­ballast designs**  **as the**  **base­case market­share**  **matrices.**

**9­25 However,**  **in the**  **standards case,**  **some lamp**  **designs (and**  **therefore lamp­and­ballast**  **designs) are** 

**not standards­compliant**  **and therefore**  **precluded from**  **being shipped.**  **In addition,**  **in the** 

**standards case,**  **the shipments**  **model defines**  **separate market­share**  **matrices for**  **the ballasts** 

**installed before**  **2012 (initial**  **ballasts) versus**  **new ballasts**  **installed after**  **2011. This**  **is important** 

**in the**  **standards case**  **since consumer**  **purchase decisions**  **may vary**  **in these**  **two situations.**  **If a** 

**consumer with**  **an existing**  **installed ballast**  **in 2012**  **is forced**  **to replace**  **a base­case**  **lamp with**  **a**

**different standards­compliant**  **lamp, the**  **consumer is**  **limited to**  **only those**  **lamp­and­ballast**

**designs that**  **maintain the**  **current ballast.**  **However, when**  **a consumer**  **purchases a**  **new lamp­and** 

**ballast system,**  **either for**  **retrofitting, ballast**  **replacement, or**  **new construction,**  **all lamp­and** 

**ballast systems,**  **including those**  **with ballast**  **factors different**  **from the**  **base­case system** 

**purchase, are**  **available. Table**  **9.4.1 describes**  **the inputs**  **to the**  **base­case and**  **standards­case**

**market­share matrices**  **for initial**  **and new**  **ballasts.**

Table 9.4.1 Description of Base­Case and Standards­Case GSFL Market­Share Matrices,

Initial and New Ballast Models

Case Initial Ballast Matrix

(ballasts installed before 2012) New Ballast Matrix

(ballasts installed in 2012 and later)

Base ***** **# Technology**  **mix of**  **the lamp**  **and ballast** 

**purchases before**  **2012** ***Technology mix**  **of new**  **lamp­and**

**ballast systems**  **purchased in** 

**2012 and**  **2042**

Standards ****** **# Technology**  **mix of**  **first­lamp purchases** 

**shipped for**  **installation on**  **ballasts purchased** 

**before 2012.**  ***Technology mix**  **of new**  **lamp­and**

**ballast systems**  **purchased in** 

**2012 and**  **2042**

***** **Lamp replacement**  **purchases are**  **always the**  **same lamp**  **design as**  **the retiring**  **lamp.**

****** **With the**  **exception of**  **the first**  **lamp purchase**  **after 2011,**  **lamp replacement**  **purchases are**  **always the**  **same as**  **the**

**retiring lamp.** 

**# Though**  **they are**  **presented as**  **lamp­and­ballast designs,**  **during the**  **analysis period**  **these matrices**  **result in** 

**shipments of**  **lamps for**  **lamp replacement**  **purposes only.** 

**DOE uses**  **the shift**  **and roll­up**  **scenarios to**  **populate the**  **standards­case market­share** 

**matrices. Table**  **9.4.2 through**  **Table 9.4.18**  **present the**  **standards­case market­share**  **matrices for** 

**all analyzed**  **GSFL. As**  **seen in**  **the standards­case**  **market­share matrices**  **for initial**  **ballast**

**systems, the**  **proportions of**  **lamp­and­ballast systems**  **at each**  **ballast factor**  **are equivalent**  **in the** 

**base case**  **to the**  **standards case.**  **This is**  **because these**  **standards­case matrices**  **represent only** 

**lamp replacements**  **on previously**  **existing ballasts.**  **In these**  **situations, consumers**  **are limited**  **in**

**their lamp­and­ballast**  **designs and**  **therefore may**  **not always**  **be able**  **to match**  **the lumens**  **of their** 

**base­case system.**  **As seen**  **in the**  **standards­case market­share**  **matrices for**  **new ballasts,**  **the**

**distribution among**  **ballast factors**  **in the**  **standards­case shows**  **a clear**  **migration to**  **lower ballast** 

**factors. By**  **using a**  **lower ballast**  **factor with**  **a higher**  **efficacy lamp,**  **consumers are**  **better able**  **to**

**match the**  **lumens of**  **their lamp­and­ballast**  **purchases with**  **the lumens**  **of their**  **base­case**

**purchase.**

**9­26**Table 9.4.2 Standards­Case Initial Ballast Market­Share Matrix for Four­Foot T8

Medium Bipin Systems (Shift Scenario)

Mix of New Lamps Purchased as Replacements on Ballasts Installed before 2011

at Various Candidate Standard LevelsCSLLampEfficacyLampWattageSystemLumensSystemInputPowerInstalledLampPriceBaseCaseCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5

lm/W W lm W $ % % % % % %ElectronicBallastFactor0.88 **2**

**3**

**4**

**4**

**5**

**5**

**5 86.2** 

**90.8**

**92.3**

**95.0**

**95.4**

**97.3**

**96.0 32.5** 

**32.5**

**32.5**

**30.0**

**32.5**

**28.0**

**25.0 6,653** 

**7,154**

**7,524**

**7,075**

**7,696**

**6,758**

**6,019 87.5** 

**87.5**

**87.5**

**80.5**

**87.5**

**71.1**

**66.8 3.93** 

**4.96**

**5.10**

**5.39**

**5.62**

**5.19**

**6.64 43** 

**29**

**11**

**0**

**7**

**0**

**0 43** 

**29**

**11**

**0**

**7**

**0**

**0 43** 

**29**

**11**

**0**

**7**

**0**

**0 ­** 

**43**

**0**

**18**

**0**

**29**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**0**

**18**

**0**

**72**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**18**

**72**

**0**0.78 **2**

**3**

**4**

**4**

**5**

**5**

**5 86.2** 

**90.8**

**92.3**

**95.0**

**95.4**

**97.3**

**96.0 32.5** 

**32.5**

**32.5**

**30.0**

**32.5**

**28.0**

**25.0 5,897** 

**6,341**

**6,669**

**6,271**

**6,821**

**5,990**

**5,335 78.5** 

**78.5**

**78.5**

**72.4**

**78.5**

**63.3**

**58.1 3.93** 

**4.96**

**5.10**

**5.39**

**5.62**

**5.19**

**6.64 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 ­** 

**0**

**0**

**0**

**0**

**5**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**0**

**0**

**0**

**5**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**0**

**5**

**0**0.75 **2**

**3**

**4**

**4**

**5**

**5**

**5 86.2** 

**90.8**

**92.3**

**95.0**

**95.4**

**97.3**

**96.0 32.5** 

**32.5**

**32.5**

**30.0**

**32.5**

**28.0**

**25.0 5,670** 

**6,098**

**6,413**

**6,030**

**6,559**

**5,760**

**5,130 75.9** 

**75.9**

**75.9**

**70.0**

**75.9**

**60.9**

**55.5 3.93** 

**4.96**

**5.10**

**5.39**

**5.62**

**5.19**

**6.64 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 ­** 

**0**

**0**

**0**

**0**

**5**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**0**

**0**

**0**

**5**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**0**

**5**

**0**

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

**9­27**Table 9.4.3 Standards­Case Initial Ballast Market­Share Matrix for Four­Foot T8

Medium Bipin Systems (Roll­up Scenario)

Mix of New Lamps Purchased as Replacements on Ballasts Installed before 2011 at

Various Candidate Standard LevelsCSLLampEfficacyLampWattageSystemLumensSystemInputPowerInstalledLampPriceBaseCaseCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5

lm/W W lm W $ % % % % % %ElectronicBallastFactor0.88 **2**

**3**

**4**

**4**

**5**

**5**

**5 86.2** 

**90.8**

**92.3**

**95.0**

**95.4**

**97.3**

**96.0 32.5** 

**32.5**

**32.5**

**30.0**

**32.5**

**28.0**

**25.0 6,653** 

**7,154**

**7,524**

**7,075**

**7,696**

**6,758**

**6,019 87.5** 

**87.5**

**87.5**

**80.5**

**87.5**

**71.1**

**66.8 3.93** 

**4.96**

**5.10**

**5.39**

**5.62**

**5.19**

**6.64 43** 

**29**

**11**

**0**

**7**

**0**

**0 43** 

**29**

**11**

**0**

**7**

**0**

**0 43** 

**29**

**11**

**0**

**7**

**0**

**0 ­** 

**72**

**11**

**0**

**7**

**0**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**83**

**0**

**7**

**0**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**90**

**0**

**0**0.78 **2**

**3**

**4**

**4**

**5**

**5**

**5 86.2** 

**90.8**

**92.3**

**95.0**

**95.4**

**97.3**

**96.0 32.5** 

**32.5**

**32.5**

**30.0**

**32.5**

**28.0**

**25.0 5,897** 

**6,341**

**6,669**

**6,271**

**6,821**

**5,990**

**5,335 78.5** 

**78.5**

**78.5**

**72.4**

**78.5**

**63.3**

**58.1 3.93** 

**4.96**

**5.10**

**5.39**

**5.62**

**5.19**

**6.64 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 ­** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**0**

**5**

**0**0.75 **2**

**3**

**4**

**4**

**5**

**5**

**5 86.2** 

**90.8**

**92.3**

**95.0**

**95.4**

**97.3**

**96.0 32.5** 

**32.5**

**32.5**

**30.0**

**32.5**

**28.0**

**25.0 5,670** 

**6,098**

**6,413**

**6,030**

**6,559**

**5,760**

**5,130 75.9** 

**75.9**

**75.9**

**70.0**

**75.9**

**60.9**

**55.5 3.93** 

**4.96**

**5.10**

**5.39**

**5.62**

**5.19**

**6.64 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 0** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 ­** 

**0**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**0**

**2**

**0**

**3**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**0**

**5**

**0**

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

**9­28**Table 9.4.4 Standards­Case Initial Ballast Market­Share Matrix for Four­Foot T12

Medium Bipin Systems (Shift and Roll­up Scenarios)

Mix of New Lamps Purchased as Replacements on Ballasts Installed before 2010 at

Various Candidate Standard LevelsCSLLampEfficacyLampWattageSystemLumensSystemInputPowerInstalledLampPriceBaseCaseCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5

lm/W W lm W $ % % % % % %MagneticBallast **0**

**0**

**1**

**1**

**2**

**2**

**3**

**3 80.0** 

**77.9**

**82.5**

**82.4**

**85.0**

**85.3**

**90.0**

**91.2 40** 

**34**

**40**

**34**

**40**

**34**

**40**

**34 8,208** 

**6,072**

**8,550**

**6,494**

**8,721**

**6,890**

**9,263**

**7,366 129** 

**108**

**129**

**108**

**129**

**108**

**129**

**108 4.60** 

**3.68**

**6.80**

**4.91**

**8.35**

**7.25**

**8.45**

**8.32 12** 

**44**

**8**

**14**

**6**

**8**

**5**

**3 ­** 

**­**

**20**

**58**

**6**

**8**

**5**

**3 ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**26**

**66**

**5**

**3 ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­**

**19**

**81 ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­ ­** 

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­**

**­**

Total 100 100 100 100 0 0

**9­29**Table9.4.5Standards­CaseNewBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforFour­FootT8MediumBipinSystems(ShiftScenario)MixofNewSystemsPurchasedafter2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevelsCSL52042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **7 12** **72 36** **0 0** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **11 14** **0 8** **3 7** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **0 0** **7 19** **0 4** 1001002012CSL42042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **0 0** **11 14** **7 12** **0 3** **0 0** **­ ­** **­ ­** **72 18** **0 0** **0 0** **0 4** **3 7** **­ ­** **­ ­** **0 19** **0 0** **0 0** **7 19** **0 4** 1001002012CSL32042%%**­ ­** **0 0** **0 0** **11 14** **7 12** **0 3** **0 0** **­ ­** **43 8** **29 10** **0 0** **0 0** **0 4** **3 7** **­ ­** **0 10** **0 9** **0 0** **0 0** **7 19** **0 4** 1001002012CSL22042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL12042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012BaseCase2042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012

Installed Lamp Price$**3.93 4.96** **5.10 5.39** **5.62 5.19** **6.64 3.93** **4.96 5.10** **5.39 5.62** **5.19 6.64** **3.93 4.96** **5.10 5.39** **5.62 5.19** **6.64**Total

System Input PowerW**87.5 87.5** **87.5 80.5** **87.5 71.1** **66.8 78.5** **78.5 78.5** **72.4 78.5** **63.3 58.1** **75.9 75.9** **75.9 70.0** **75.9 60.9** **55.5**

System Lumenslm**6,653 7,154** **7,524 7,075** **7,696 6,758** **6,019 5,897** **6,341 6,669** **6,271 6,821** **5,990 5,335** **5,670 6,098** **6,413 6,030** **6,559 5,760** **5,130**

Lamp WattageW**32.5 32.5** **32.5 30.0** **32.5 28.0** **25.0 32.5** **32.5 32.5** **30.0 32.5** **28.0 25.0** **32.5 32.5** **32.5 30.0** **32.5 28.0** **25.0**

Lamp Efficacylm/W**86.2 90.8** **92.3 95.0** **95.4 97.3** **96.0 86.2** **90.8 92.3** **95.0 95.4** **97.3 96.0** **86.2 90.8** **92.3 95.0** **95.4 97.3** **96.0**

CSL**2 3** **4 4** **5 5** **5 2** **3 4** **4 5** **5 5** **2 3** **4 4** **5 5** **5**

0.88 0.78 0.75

Electronic Ballast FactorTable9.4.6Standards­CaseNewBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforFour­FootT8MediumBipinSystems(Roll­UpScenario)**9­30**MixofNewSystemsPurchasedafter2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevelsCSL52042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **18 26** **0 6** **0 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **29 16** **7 19** **0 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **43 18** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL42042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **40 24** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **43 14** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **0 4** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL32042%%**­ ­** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **­ ­** **43 8** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **­ ­** **0 4** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL22042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL12042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012BaseCase2042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012

Installed Lamp Price$**3.93 4.96** **5.10 5.39** **5.62 5.19** **6.64 3.93** **4.96 5.10** **5.39 5.62** **5.19 6.64** **3.93 4.96** **5.10 5.39** **5.62 5.19** **6.64**Total

System Input PowerW**87.5 87.5** **87.5 80.5** **87.5 71.1** **66.8 78.5** **78.5 78.5** **72.4 78.5** **63.3 58.1** **75.9 75.9** **75.9 70.0** **75.9 60.9** **55.5**

System Lumenslm**6,653 7,154** **7,524 7,075** **7,696 6,758** **6,019 5,897** **6,341 6,669** **6,271 6,821** **5,990 5,335** **5,670 6,098** **6,413 6,030** **6,559 5,760** **5,130**

Lamp WattageW**32.5 32.5** **32.5 30.0** **32.5 28.0** **25.0 32.5** **32.5 32.5** **30.0 32.5** **28.0 25.0** **32.5 32.5** **32.5 30.0** **32.5 28.0** **25.0**

Lamp Efficacylm/W**86.2 90.8** **92.3 95.0** **95.4 97.3** **96.0 86.2** **90.8 92.3** **95.0 95.4** **97.3 96.0** **86.2 90.8** **92.3 95.0** **95.4 97.3** **96.0**

CSL**2 3** **4 4** **5 5** **5 2** **3 4** **4 5** **5 5** **2 3** **4 4** **5 5** **5**

0.88 0.78 0.75

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­31**Table9.4.7Standards­CaseInitialBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforEight­FootT8SinglePinSlimlineSystems(ShiftScenario)MixofNewLampsPurchasedasReplacementsonBallastsInstalledbefore2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevels CSL5%**­ ­** **0 0** **70 ­** **­ 0** **0 15** **­ ­** **0 0** **15**100

CSL4%**­ 0** **0 0** **70 ­** **0 0** **0 15** **­ 0** **0 0** **15**100

CSL3%**30 32** **8 0** **0 7** **8 0** **0 0** **7 8** **0 0** **0**100

CSL2%**30 32** **8 0** **0 7** **8 0** **0 0** **7 8** **0 0** **0**100

CSL1%**30 32** **8 0** **0 7** **8 0** **0 0** **7 8** **0 0** **0**100

Base Case%**30 32** **8 0** **0 7** **8 0** **0 0** **7 8** **0 0** **0**100

Installed Lamp Price$**6.31 8.50** **9.35 8.69** **8.28 6.31** **8.50 9.35** **8.69 8.28** **6.31 8.50** **9.35 8.69** **8.28**Total

System Input PowerW**112.8 112.8** **112.8 107.5** **102.0 109.1** **109.1 109.1** **106.0 98.5** **100.4 100.4** **100.4 102.5** **90.2**

System Lume nslm**9,029 9,553** **10,199 9,592** **9,530 5,897** **6,341 6,821** **5,990 5,335** **5,670 6,098** **6,559 5,760** **5,130**

Lamp WattageW**60.1 60.1** **60.1 57.0** **55.0 60.1** **60.1 60.1** **57.0 55.0** **60.1 60.1** **60.1 57.0** **55.0**

Lamp Efficacylm/W**94.8 98.2** **101.5 101.8** **103.6 94.8** **98.2 101.5** **101.8 103.6** **94.8 98.2** **101.5 101.8** **103.6**

CSL**3 4** **5 5** **5 3** **4 5** **5 5** **3 4** **5 5** **5**

0.88 0.85 0.78

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­32**Table9.4.8Standards­CaseInitialBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforEight­FootT8SinglePinSlimlineSystems(Roll­upScenario)MixofNewLampsPurchasedasReplacementsonBallastsInstalledbefore2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevels CSL5%**­ ­** **70 0** **0 ­** **­ 15** **0 0** **­ ­** **15 0** **0**100

CSL4%**­ 62** **8 0** **0 ­** **15 0** **0 0** **­ 15** **0 0** **0**100

CSL3%**30 32** **8 0** **0 7** **8 0** **0 0** **7 8** **0 0** **0**100

CSL2%**30 32** **8 0** **0 7** **8 0** **0 0** **7 8** **0 0** **0**100

CSL1%**30 32** **8 0** **0 7** **8 0** **0 0** **7 8** **0 0** **0**100

Base Case%**30 32** **8 0** **0 7** **8 0** **0 0** **7 8** **0 0** **0**100

Installed Lamp Price$**6.31 8.50** **9.35 8.69** **8.28 6.31** **8.50 9.35** **8.69 8.28** **6.31 8.50** **9.35 8.69** **8.28**Total

System Input PowerW**112.8 112.8** **112.8 107.5** **102.0 109.1** **109.1 109.1** **106.0 98.5** **100.4 100.4** **100.4 102.5** **90.2**

System Lume nslm**9,029 9,553** **10,199 9,592** **9,530 5,897** **6,341 6,821** **5,990 5,335** **5,670 6,098** **6,559 5,760** **5,130**

Lamp WattageW**60.1 60.1** **60.1 57.0** **55.0 60.1** **60.1 60.1** **57.0 55.0** **60.1 60.1** **60.1 57.0** **55.0**

Lamp Efficacylm/W**94.8 98.2** **101.5 101.8** **103.6 94.8** **98.2 101.5** **101.8 103.6** **94.8 98.2** **101.5 101.8** **103.6**

CSL**3 4** **5 5** **5 3** **4 5** **5 5** **3 4** **5 5** **5**

0.88 0.85 0.78

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­33**Table9.4.9Standards­CaseInitialBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforEight­FootT12SinglePinSlimlineSystems(ShiftandRoll­upScenarios)MixofNewLampsPurchasedasReplacementsonBallastsInstalledbefore2010atVariousCandidateStandardLevels CSL5%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** 0

CSL4%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** 0

CSL3%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ 100** 100

CSL2%**­ ­** **­ 63** **29 8** 100

CSL1%**­ 61** **12 2** **17 8** 100

Base

­ Case Mix of Systems I nstalled before 201 0%**32 29** **12 2** **17 8** 100

Installed Lamp Price$**8.02 11.20** **5.60 12.15** **7.94 9.65** Total

System In put PowerW**158 158** **126 158** **126 126** 

System Lu men slm**11,103 11,575** **8,209 11,976** **9,068 9,645** 

Lamp WattageW**75.0 75.0** **60.5 75.0** **60.5 60.5** 

Lamp Efficacylm/W**85.6 87.3** **87.6 92.0** **92.6 97.5** 

CSL**0 1** **1 2** **2 3** 

Magnetic Ballast**9­34**Table9.4.10Standards­CaseNewBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforEight­FootT8SinglePinSlimlineSystems(ShiftScenario)MixofNewSystemsPurchasedafter2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevelsCSL52042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **­ ­** **­ ­** **0 0** **0 0** **70 46** **­ ­** **­ ­** **0 0** **0 0** **30 54** 1001002012CSL42042%%**­ ­** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **­ ­** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **70 46** **­ ­** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **30 54** 1001002012CSL32042%%**30 6** **32 11** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 3** **0 3** 1001002012CSL22042%%**30 6** **32 11** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 3** **0 3** 1001002012CSL12042%%**30 6** **32 11** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 3** **0 3** 1001002012BaseCase2042%%**30 6** **32 11** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 3** **0 3** 1001002012

Installed Lamp Price$**6.31 8.50** **9.35 8.69** **8.28 6.31** **8.50 9.35** **8.69 8.28** **6.31 8.50** **9.35 8.69** **8.28**Total

System Input PowerW**112.8 112.8** **112.8 107.5** **102.0 109.1** **109.1 109.1** **106.0 98.5** **100.4 100.4** **100.4 102.5** **90.2**

System Lume nslm**9,029 9,553** **10,199 9,592** **9,530 5,897** **6,341 6,821** **5,990 5,335** **5,670 6,098** **6,559 5,760** **5,130**

Lamp WattageW**60.1 60.1** **60.1 57.0** **55.0 60.1** **60.1 60.1** **57.0 55.0** **60.1 60.1** **60.1 57.0** **55.0**

Lamp Efficacylm/W**94.8 98.2** **101.5 101.8** **103.6 94.8** **98.2 101.5** **101.8 103.6** **94.8 98.** **2 101.5** **101.8 103.6** 

CSL**3 4** **5 5** **5 3** **4 5** **5 5** **3 4** **5 5** **5**

0.88 0.78 0.75

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­35**Table9.4.11Standards­CaseNewBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforEight­FootT8SinglePinSlimlineSystems(Roll­upScenario)MixofNewSystemsPurchasedafter2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevelsCSL52042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **­ ­** **­ ­** **32 17** **0 6** **0 6** **­ ­** **­ ­** **60 42** **0 3** **0 3** 1001002012CSL42042%%**­ ­** **32 11** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **­ ­** **38 14** **0 6** **0 6** **0 6** **­ ­** **22 22** **0 6** **0 6** **0 3** 1001002012CSL32042%%**30 6** **32 11** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 3** **0 3** 1001002012CSL22042%%**30 6** **32 11** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 3** **0 3** 1001002012CSL12042%%**30 6** **32 11** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 3** **0 3** 1001002012BaseCase2042%%**30 6** **32 11** **8 11** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 6** **0 6** **7 7** **8 8** **0 6** **0 3** **0 3** 1001002012

Installed Lamp Price$**6.31 8.50** **9.35 8.69** **8.28 6.31** **8.50 9.35** **8.69 8.28** **6.31 8.50** **9.3 5** **8.69 8.28** Total

System In put PowerW**112.8 112.8** **112.8 107.5** **102.0 109.1** **109.1 109.1** **106.0 98.5** **100.4 100.4** **100.4 102.5** **90.2**

System Lume nslm**9,029 9,553** **10,199 9,592** **9,530 5,897** **6,341 6,821** **5,990 5,335** **5,670 6,098** **6,559 5,760** **5,130**

Lamp WattageW**60.1 60.1** **60.1 57.0** **55.0 60.1** **60.1 60.1** **57.0 55.0** **60.1 60.1** **60.1 57.0** **55.0**

Lamp Efficacylm/W**94.8 98.2** **101.5 101.8** **103.6 94.8** **98.2 101.5** **1 01.8** **103.6 94.8** **98.2 101.5** **101.8 103.6** 

CSL**3 4** **5 5** **5 3** **4 5** **5 5** **3 4** **5 5** **5**

0.88 0.78 0.75

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­36**Table9.4.12Standards­CaseNewBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforFour­FootT8MediumBipinSystemsReplacingEightFootSinglePinSlimlineSystems(ShiftScenario)MixofNewSystemsPurchasedafter2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevelsCSL52042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **7 12** **72 36** **0 0** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **11 14** **0 8** **3 7** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **0 0** **7 19** **0 4** 1001002012CSL42042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **0 0** **11 14** **7 12** **0 3** **0 0** **­ ­** **­ ­** **72 18** **0 0** **0 0** **0 4** **3 7** **­ ­** **­ ­** **0 19** **0 0** **0 0** **7 19** **0 4** 1001002012CSL32042%%**­ ­** **0 0** **0 0** **11 14** **7 12** **0 3** **0 0** **­ ­** **43 8** **29 10** **0 0** **0 0** **0 4** **3 7** **­ ­** **0 10** **0 9** **0 0** **0 0** **7 19** **0 4** 1001002012CSL22042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL12042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012BaseCase2042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012

Installed Lamp Price$**4.91 5.94** **6.08 6.37** **6 .61** **6.17 7.62** **4.91 5.94** **6.08 6.37** **6.61 6.17** **7.62 4.91** **5.94 6.08** **6.37 6.61** **6.17 7.62** Total

System Input PowerW**117.0 117.0** **117.0 109.4** **117.0 95.6** **87.9 103.8** **103.8 103.8** **98.2 103.8** **85.0 77.8** **99.8 99.8** **99.8 94.8** **99.8 82.0** **74.8**

System Lumenslm**8, 870** **9,539 10,032** **9,434 10,261** **9,011 8,026** **7,862 8,455** **8,892 8,362** **9,095 7,987** **7,114 7,560** **8,130 8,550** **8,040 8,745** **7,680 6,840** 

Lamp WattageW**32.5 32.5** **32.5 30.0** **32.5 28.0** **25.0 32.5** **32.5 32.5** **30.0 32.5** **28.0 25.0** **32.5 32.5** **32.5 30.0** **32.5 28.0** **25.0**

Lamp Efficacylm/W**86.2 90.8** **92.3 95.0** **95.4 97.3** **96.0 86.2** **90.8 92.3** **95.0 95.4** **97.3 96.0** **86.2 90.8** **92.3 95.0** **95.4 97.3** **96.0**

CSL**2 3** **4 4** **5 5** **5 2** **3 4** **4 5** **5 5** **2 3** **4 4** **5 5** **5**

0.88 0.78 0.75

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­37**Table9.4.13Standards­CaseNewBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforFour­FootT8MediumBipinSystemsReplacingEightFootSinglePinSlimlineSystems(Roll­upScenario)MixofNewSystemsPurchasedafter2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevelsCSL52042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **18 26** **0 6** **0 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **29 16** **7 19** **0 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **43 18** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL42042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **40 24** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **43 14** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **0 4** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL32042%%**­ ­** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **­ ­** **43 8** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **­ ­** **0 4** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL22042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012CSL12042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012BaseCase2042%%**43 8** **29 10** **11 14** **0 3** **7 12** **0 3** **0 4** **0 4** **0 0** **0 6** **2 6** **0 6** **3 7** **0 4** **0 0** **0 0** **0 0** **2 6** **0 0** **3 7** **0 0** 1001002012

Installed Lamp Price$**4.91 5.94** **6.08 6.37** **6.61 6.17** **7.62 4.91** **5.94 6.08** **6.37 6.61** **6.17 7.62** **4.91 5.94** **6.08 6.37** **6.61 6.17** **7.62**Total

System Input PowerW**117.0 117.0** **117.0 109.4** **117.0 95.6** **87.9 103.8** **103.8 103.8** **98.2 103.8** **85.0 77.8** **99.8 99.8** **99.8 9** **4.8 99.8** **82.0 74.8** 

System Lumenslm**8,870 9,539** **10,032 9,434** **10,261 9,011** **8,026 7,862** **8,4 55** **8,892 8,362** **9,095 7,987** **7,114 7,560** **8,130 8,550** **8,040 8,745** **7,680 6,840** 

Lamp WattageW**32.5 32.5** **32.5 30.0** **32.5 28.0** **25.0 32.5** **32.5 32.5** **30.0 32.5** **28.0 25.0** **32.5 32.5** **32.5 30.0** **32.5 28.0** **25.0**

Lamp Efficacylm/W**86.2 90.8** **92.3 95.0** **95.4 97.3** **96.0 86.2** **90.8 92.3** **95.0 95.4** **97.3 96.0** **86.2 90.8** **92.3 95.0** **95.4 97.3** **96.0**

CSL**2 3** **4 4** **5 5** **5 2** **3 4** **4 5** **5 5** **2 3** **4 4** **5 5** **5**

0.88 0.78 0.75

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­38**Table9.4.14Standards­CaseInitialBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforEight­FootT12RecessedDoubleContactHighOutputSystems(ShiftandRoll­upScenarios)MixofNewLampsPurchasedasReplacementsonBallastsInstalledbefore2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevels CSL5%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** 0

CSL4%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** 0

CSL3%**­ ­** **­ ­** **32 2** **­ ­** **­ ­** **31 2** **­ ­** **­ ­** **31 2** 100

CSL2%**­ ­** **­ 28** **4 2** **­ ­** **­ 27** **4 2** **­ ­** **­ 27** **4 2** 100

CSL1%**­ ­** **7 21** **4 2** **­ ­** **7 20** **4 2** **­ ­** **7 20** **4 2** 100

Base Case%**13 5** **7 3** **4 2** **13 5** **7 2** **4 2** **13 5** **7 2** **4 2** 100

Installed Lamp Price$**9.78 6.88** **15.56 9.94** **16.10 16.41** **9.78 6.88** **15.56 9.94** **16.10 16.41** **9.78 6.88** **15.56 9.94** **16.10 16.41** Total

System Input PowerW**205.4 177.0** **205.4 177.0** **177.0 177.0** **208.4 181.3** **208.4 181.3** **181.3 181.3** **211.5 185.6** **211.5 185.6** **185.6 185.6** 

System Lumenslm**14,335 12,232** **15,220 13,226** **13,640 13,464** **14,498 12,371** **15,393 13,377** **13,617 13,795** **14,661 12,510** **15,566 13,527** **13,770 13,950** 

Lamp WattageW**113 97** **113 97** **97 97** **113 97** **113 97** **97 97** **113 97** **113 97** **97 97** 

Lamp Efficacylm/W**80.1 82.5** **83.2 86.1** **87.6 88.9** **80.1 82.5** **83.2 86.1** **87.6 88.9** **80.1 82.5** **83.2 86.1** **87.6 88.9** 

CSL**0 0** **1 2** **3 3** **0 0** **1 2** **3 3** **0 0** **1 2** **3 3** 

0.88 0.89 0.90

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­39**Table9.4.15Standards­CaseNewBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforEight­FootT12RecessedDoubleContactHighOutputNewBallastSystems(ShiftScenario)MixofNewSystemsPurchasedafter2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevelsCSL52042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­**002012CSL42042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­**002012CSL32042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **32 48** **2 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **6 14** **0 0** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **53 25** **7 9** 1001002012CSL22042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **21 31** **4 9** **2 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **13 22** **0 0** **0 0** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **46 17** **7 8** **7 9** 1001002012CSL12042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **7 9** **21 31** **4 9** **2 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **7 8** **13 22** **0 0** **0 0** **­ ­** **­ ­** **0 0** **39 9** **7 8** **0 0** 1001002012BaseCase2042%%**13 3** **5 2** **7 8** **3 6** **4 9** **2 4** **13 3** **5 2** **7 9** **2 9** **4 8** **2 4** **13 3** **5 2** **7 8** **2 6** **4 8** **2 6** 1001002012

Installed Lamp Price$**9.78 6.88** **15.56 9.94** **16.10 16.41** **9.78 6.88** **15.56 9.94** **16.10 16.41** **9.78 6.88** **15.56 9.94** **16.10 16.41** Total

System Input PowerW**205.4 177.0** **205.4 177.0** **177.0 177.0** **208.4 181.3** **208.4 181.3** **181.3 181.3** **211.5 185.6** **211.5 185.6** **185.6 185.6** 

System Lume nslm**14,335 12,232** **15,220 13,226** **13,640 13,464** **14,498 12,371** **15,393 13,377** **13,617 13,795** **14,661 12,510** **15,566 13,527** **13,770 13,950** 

Lamp WattageW**113 97** **113 97** **97 97** **113 97** **113 97** **97 97** **113 97** **113 97** **97 97** 

Lamp Efficacylm/W**80.1 82.5** **83.2 86.1** **87.6 88.9** **80.1 82.5** **83.2 86.1** **87.6 88.9** **80.1 82.5** **83.2 86.1** **8 7.6** **88.9**

CSL**0 0** **1 2** **3 3** **0 0** **1 2** **3 3** **0 0** **1 2** **3 3** 

0.88 0.89 0.90

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­40**Table9.4.16Standards­CaseNewBallastMarket­ShareMatrixforEight­FootT12RecessedDoubleContactHighOutputNewBallastSystems(Roll­upScenario)MixofNewSystemsPurchasedafter2011atVariousCandidateStandardLevelsCSL52042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­**002012CSL42042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­**002012CSL32042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **24 30** **2 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **6 14** **2 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **57 33** **9 15** 1001002012CSL22042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **18 12** **4 9** **2 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **2 9** **4 8** **2 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **­ ­** **48 23** **11 16** **9 15** 1001002012CSL12042%%**­ ­** **­ ­** **7 8** **18 12** **4 9** **2 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **7 9** **2 9** **4 8** **2 4** **­ ­** **­ ­** **7 8** **41 15** **4 8** **2 6** 1001002012BaseCase2042%%**13 3** **5 2** **7 8** **3 6** **4 9** **2 4** **13 3** **5 2** **7 9** **2 9** **4 8** **2 4** **13 3** **5 2** **7 8** **2 6** **4 8** **2 6** 1001002012

Installed Lamp Price$**9.78 6.88** **15.56 9.94** **16.10 16.41** **9.78 6.88** **15.56 9.94** **16.10 16.41** **9.78 6.88** **15.56 9.94** **16.10 16.41** Total

System Input PowerW**205.4 177.0** **205.4 177.0** **177.0 177.0** **208.4 181.3** **208.4 181.3** **181.3 181.3** **211.5 185.6** **211.5 185.6** **185.6 185.6** 

System Lume nslm**14,335 12,232** **15,220 13,226** **13,640 13,464** **14,498 12,371** **15,393 13,377** **13,617 13,795** **14,661 12,510** **15,566 13,527** **13,770 13,950** 

Lamp WattageW**113 97** **113 97** **97 97** **113 97** **113 97** **9 7** **97 113** **97 113** **97 97** **97**

Lamp Efficacylm/W**80.1 82.5** **83.2 86.1** **87.6 88.9** **80.1 82.5** **83.2 86.1** **87.6 88.9** **80.1 82.5** **83.2 86.1** **87.6 88.9** 

CSL**0 0** **1 2** **3 3** **0 0** **1 2** **3 3** **0 0** **1 2** **3 3** 

0.88 0.89 0.90

Electronic Ballast Factor**9­41**Table 9.4.17 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Eight­Foot T8 Recessed Double

Contact High Output New Ballast Systems (Shift Scenario)

Mix of New Systems Purchased after 2011 at Various Candidate Standard LevelsCSLLampEfficacyLampWattageSystemLumensSystemInputPowerInstalledLampPriceBaseCaseCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5

lm/W W lm W $ % % % % % %ElectronicBallastFactor0.88 **3**

**4**

**5 91.9** 

**93.0**

**95.3 86** 

**86**

**86 12,496** 

**12,672**

**13,728 160** 

**160**

**160 9.92** 

**10.08**

**11.53 7** 

**30**

**30 7** 

**30**

**30 7** 

**30**

**30 7** 

**30**

**30 ­** 

**7**

**0 ­** 

**­**

**0**0.89 **3**

**4**

**5 91.9** 

**93.0**

**95.3 86** 

**86**

**86 11,502** 

**11,664**

**12,636 151** 

**151**

**151 9.92** 

**10.08**

**11.53 3** 

**15**

**15 3** 

**15**

**15 3** 

**15**

**15 3** 

**15**

**15 ­** 

**18**

**75 ­** 

**­**

**100**

Total 100 100 100 100 0 0

Table 9.4.18 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Eight­Foot T8 Recessed Double

Contact High Output New Ballast Systems (Roll­up Scenario)

Mix of New Systems Purchased after 2011 at Various Candidate Standard LevelsCSLLampEfficacyLampWattageSystemLumensSystemInputPowerInstalledLampPriceBaseCaseCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5

lm/W W lm W $ % % % % % %ElectronicBallastFactor0.88 **3**

**4**

**5 91.9** 

**93.0**

**95.3 86** 

**86**

**86 12,496** 

**12,672**

**13,728 160** 

**160**

**160 9.92** 

**10.08**

**11.53 7** 

**30**

**30 7** 

**30**

**30 7** 

**30**

**30 7** 

**30**

**30 ­** 

**37**

**30 ­** 

**­**

**30**0.89 **3**

**4**

**5 91.9** 

**93.0**

**95.3 86** 

**86**

**86 11,502** 

**11,664**

**12,636 151** 

**151**

**151 9.92** 

**10.08**

**11.53 3** 

**15**

**15 3** 

**15**

**15 3** 

**15**

**15 3** 

**15**

**15 ­** 

**18**

**15 ­** 

**­**

**70**

Total 100 100 100 100 0 0

9.4.1.3 Early Retirement of Ballasts in the Standards Cases

**The commercial**  **GSFL shipments**  **model incorporates**  **early retirement**  **(or retrofit)**  **of 4­** 

**foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **and 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin slimline**  **ballast systems**  **in the**  **standards case.** 

**As historical**  **shipments indicate,**  **in the**  **base case,**  **as magnetic**  **T12 ballasts**  **reach their**  **end of** 

**9­42 life,**  **these systems**  **are replaced**  **by their**  **electronic T8**  **counterpart systems.**  **In the**  **standards**

**cases, DOE**  **assumes that**  **when consumers**  **who own**  **T12 magnetic**  **ballasts are**  **forced to** 

**purchase more**  **expensive standards­compliant**  **lamps, some**  **consumers may**  **instead discard**  **their**

**magnetic ballast**  **before its**  **natural end**  **of life**  **to purchase**  **a more**  **cost­effective T8**  **electronic**

**system. As**  **the standard**  **level and**  **lamp price**  **increase, this**  **rate of**  **early ballast**  **retirement is** 

**expected to**  **increase as**  **well. Table**  **9.4.19 summarizes**  **DOE’s assumptions**  **about early**  **ballast**

**retirements in**  **the standards**  **cases for**  **4­foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **and 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin**

**slimline ballasts.**  **Percentage annual**  **retrofit rates**  **represent the**  **percentage of**  **remaining T12** 

**installed ballast**  **stock that**  **is retrofitted**  **each year.**  **Figure 9.4.1**  **depicts how**  **shipments of**  **4­foot**

**T12 lamps**  **change in**  **response to**  **retrofit rates,**  **at CSL1.** 

Table 9.4.19 Early Retirement of Four­Foot T12 Medium Bipin and Eight­Foot Single Pin

Slimline Ballasts in the Standards Cases

Candidate Standard

Level Rate of Early Retirement

(% of remaining initial ballast stock retired early per year)

**1 10** 

**2 20** 

**3 30** 

**4*** **40**

**5*** **50**

***** **In addition**  **to voluntary**  **early retirement,**  **T12 ballasts**  **are automatically**  **retrofitted at**  **the end**  **of lamp**  **life because** 

**no T12**  **lamps are**  **standards­compliant**

**9­43**

### 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14Shipments(billions) 0% Retrofit Rate

10% Retrofit Rate

20% Retrofit Rate

30% Retrofit Rate

40% Retrofit Rate

50% Retrofit Rate



### 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Year

Figure 9.4.1 Retrofit Rate Effect on Four­Foot T12 Shipments at CSL 1

9.4.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

9.4.2.1 Shipments Scenarios

**DOE created**  **one main**  **shipment scenario**  **and two**  **sensitivity scenarios**  **to characterize** 

**how IRL**  **consumers will**  **react to**  **standards in**  **the commercial**  **and residential**  **sectors. For**  **all**

**three standards­case**  **scenarios in**  **these sectors,**  **DOE assumes**  **that consumers**  **whose base­case** 

**lamp purchase**  **has an**  **efficacy lower**  **than that**  **of the**  **standard would**  **roll up**  **to the**  **least**

**efficacious lamp**  **design available.**  **However, any**  **IRL consumer**  **whose base­case**  **lamp purchase** 

**meets the**  **efficacy standard**  **remains unaffected.**  **In the**  **main shipment**  **scenario, DOE**  **makes two** 

**assumptions: 1)**  **consumers who**  **purchase covered**  **IRL technology**  **in the**  **base case**  **continue to** 

**purchase covered**  **IRL technology**  **in the**  **standards case**  **(** i.e. **the total**  **number of**  **installed covered** 

**IRL in**  **the base**  **case is**  **the same**  **as that**  **in the**  **standards case**  **throughout the**  **analysis period),**  **and**

**2) in**  **the standards**  **case, consumers**  **purchase higher**  **efficacy lamp**  **designs with**  **equivalent lumen** 

**output as**  **their base**  **case lamps.** 

**In addition**  **to modeling**  **one main**  **scenario for**  **IRL shipments,**  **DOE created**  **two**

**sensitivity scenarios**  **in the**  **IRL shipments**  **analysis. In**  **one sensitivity**  **scenario, termed**  **“65 Watt** 

**BR lamp**  **substitution,” in**  **the standards**  **case DOE**  **models a**  **migration away**  **from covered**  **IRL**

**toward exempted**  **65 Watt**  **BR 30**  **and 65**  **Watt BR**  **40 lamps.**  **As discussed**  **earlier, EISA**  **2007**

**9­44 extended**  **energy conservation**  **standards coverage**  **to certain**  **ER and**  **BR while**  **leaving others** 

**exempted. DOE**  **believes that**  **as the**  **efficacy standard**  **on IRL**  **increases, some**  **consumers who** 

**would normally**  **purchase a**  **covered IRL**  **may instead**  **choose to**  **purchase higher**  **wattage, lower** 

**first cost,**  **exempted 65**  **Watt BR**  **lamp. Though**  **these exempted**  **lamps do**  **not fall**  **under the**  **scope**

**of this**  **rulemaking, DOE**  **includes a**  **sensitivity scenario**  **incorporating this**  **effect as**  **it affects**  **NES**

**and NPV**  **results.**

**In the**  **second sensitivity**  **scenario, called**  **the “10­percent**  **lumen increase”**  **sensitivity**

**scenario, DOE**  **assumes that**  **a portion**  **of residential**  **consumers of**  **IRL will**  **buy a**  **more**

**efficacious lamp**  **at the**  **same wattage**  **as in**  **the base**  **case. This**  **incorporation of**  **non­energy**

**saving lamp**  **designs results**  **in an**  **overall higher**  **lumen output**  **per IRL**  **in the**  **residential sector.** 

**To quantify**  **the percentage**  **of consumers**  **that purchase**  **same­wattage lamp**  **designs, DOE** 

**assumes that**  **the average**  **initial lumen**  **output of**  **IRL of**  **the standards**  **cases is**  **10 percent**  **higher**

**than that**  **of the**  **base case.**  **DOE does**  **not model**  **this sensitivity**  **scenario in**  **the commercial** 

**sector.**

**Shipment results**  **for the**  **65 Watt**  **BR lamp**  **substitution and**  **10 percent**  **lumen increase** 

**sensitivity scenarios**  **are presented**  **in Appendix**  **9A of**  **this TSD.**  **In addition**  **to modeling**  **these**

**three scenarios,**  **DOE’s shipment**  **spreadsheet also**  **allows for**  **the user**  **to generate**  **custom inputs** 

**into the**  **base­case and**  **standards­case market­share**  **matrices. In**  **addition to**  **making available**  **all**

**lamp designs**  **discussed above**  **(both reduced­wattage**  **and same­wattage**  **lamp designs),**  **the**

**spreadsheet is**  **also capable**  **of modeling**  **an increased**  **shift toward**  **reflector CFL**  **in the**  **standards**

**case.**

9.4.2.2 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrices

**Similar to**  **the base**  **case, DOE**  **is constructing**  **market­share matrices**  **to characterize**  **lamp**

**shipments in**  **the standards**  **case. These**  **market­share matrices**  **provide the**  **same lamp**  **designs as** 

**the base­case**  **market­share matrices.**  **However, in**  **the standards­case,**  **some lamp**  **designs are**  **not**

**standards­compliant and**  **therefore precluded**  **from being**  **shipped beginning**  **in 2012.**  **In the** 

**standards case,**  **standards compliant**  **lamps do**  **not occupy**  **all IRL**  **sockets until**  **the lamps** 

**purchased before**  **2012 fail.**  **For example,**  **the longest­lived**  **residential IRL**  **in the**  **base case**  **has a** 

**service life**  **of 3.4**  **years. Therefore,**  **standards­compliant lamps**  **will not**  **occupy all**  **IRL sockets** 

**until about**  **2015. For**  **this reason,**  **the residential**  **standards­case market­share**  **matrix,**

**representing the**  **percentage of**  **sockets occupied**  **by specific**  **IRL, is**  **given in**  **2015 and**  **2042.**

**Because the**  **longest­lived commercial**  **IRL in**  **the base**  **case has**  **a service**  **life of**  **1.2 years,**  **the**

**commercial standards­case**  **market­share matrix**  **is given**  **in 2013**  **and 2042.**  **Table 9.4.20** 

**describes the**  **inputs to**  **the base­case**  **and standards­case**  **IRL market­share**  **matrices for**  **the**

**commercial and**  **residential sectors.** 

**Table 9.4.21**  **displays the**  **commercial standards­case**  **market­share matrix**  **for the**  **main**

**shipment scenario**  **analyzed. As**  **discussed earlier,**  **in the**  **base case,**  **the commercial**  **IRL market** 

**is composed**  **entirely of**  **halogen and**  **HIR lamps.**  **At CSL1**  **halogen IRL**  **are no**  **longer standard** 

**compliant and**  **consumers purchasing**  **halogen type**  **IRL purchase**  **improved halogen**  **technology.**

**Consumers who**  **in the**  **base case**  **purchase HIR**  **IRL continue**  **purchasing the**  **same lamps.**  **At**

**CSL2 only**  **HIR and**  **improved HIR**  **lamps can**  **be sold,**  **and at**  **CSL3 only**  **improves HIR**  **lamps**

**9­45 are**  **standards compliant.**  **At these**  **CSLs, consumers**  **purchase the**  **least costly**  **standards­compliant**

**lamp.**

**Table 9.4.22**  **displays the**  **residential standards­case**  **market­share matrix**  **in the**  **main**

**shipment scenario.**  **As discussed**  **earlier in**  **the base**  **case, DOE**  **assumes that**  **the entire**  **residential**

**market purchases**  **halogen IRL.**  **At all**  **CSLs, consumers**  **choose the**  **least costly**  **standards**

**compliant lamp.**  **Specifically, at**  **CSL1 the**  **entire residential**  **market is**  **composed of**  **improved**

**halogen IRL.**  **At CSL2,**  **the residential**  **market shifts**  **toward HIR**  **technology. At**  **CSL4, the** 

**residential IRL**  **market is**  **composed of**  **improved HIR**  **lamps.**

Table 9.4.20 Description of Base­Case and Standards­Case IRL Market­Share Matrices

Case Input Description

Base ***Technology mix**  **of lamp**  **designs in**  **the lamp**  **stock in** 

**2011 and**  **2042**

Standards ***** **Technology mix**  **of lamp**  **designs in**  **the lamp**  **stock in** 

**2013 (commercial)**  **or 2015**  **(residential) and**  **2042. All** 

**lamps are**  **standards­compliant.**

***** **Note: Because**  **CFL penetration**  **into the**  **lamp stock**  **is changing**  **over the**  **analysis period,**  **lamp purchases**  **for lamp** 

**replacement purposes**  **are not**  **necessarily the**  **same as**  **the retiring**  **lamp.**

**9­46**Table 9.4.21 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Commercial IRL Sockets (Main

Shipment Scenario)

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design Price with

Sales Tax Stock in

2011* Stock in

2013** Stock in

2042

$ % % %

**90W, 14.6**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **6.16 33**  **21**

**75W, 14.0**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **6.16 26**  **16**

Base Case **50W, 11.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.56 22**  **14**

**70W, 18.0**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 8**  **21**

**60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 6**  **16**

**41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.12 5**  **14**

Total 100 100

**79W, 16.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 7.55**  **32 21** 

**66W, 15.9**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 7.55**  **25 16** 

CSL1 **44.3W, 14**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 6.95**  **21 14** 

**70W, 18**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 9**  **21**

**60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 7**  **16**

**41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.12 6**  **14**

Total 100 100

**70W, 18**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 41**  **41**

CSL2 **60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 32**  **32**

**41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.12 27**  **27**

Total

**66W, 19.8**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 9.05**  **41 41** 

CSL3 **55W, 19.1**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 9.05**  **32 32** 

**40W, 17**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.44**  **27 27** 

Total 100 100

***Base­case input**  **only.**

 Standards­case**  **input only.** 

**9­47**Table 9.4.22 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets

(Main Shipment Scenario)

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design Price with

Sales Tax Stock in

2011* Stock in

2015** Stock in

2042

$ % % %

**90W, 14.6**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 41**  **41**

Base Case **75W, 14.0**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 32**  **32**

**50W, 11.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Halogen**  **4.52 27**  **27**

Total 100 100

**79W, 16.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 6.52**  **41 41** 

CSL1 **66W, 15.9**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 6.52**  **32 32** 

**44.3W, 14**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 5.91**  **27 27** 

Total 100 100

**70W, 18**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.70 41**  **41**

CSL2 **60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.70 32**  **32**

**41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.09 27**  **27**

Total

**66W, 19.8**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.01**  **41 41** 

CSL3 **55W, 19.1**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.01**  **32 32** 

**40W, 17**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 7.41**  **27 27** 

Total 100 100

***Base­case input**  **only.**

 Standards­case**  **input only.** 

9.5 RESULTS

**The following**  **sections show**  **the shipments**  **forecasts for**  **the various**  **CSLs for**  **GSFL and** 

**IRL.**

9.5.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

9.5.1.1 Shipments Forecasts: Base and Standards Cases

**Figure 9.5.1**  **through Figure**  **9.5.5 present**  **the shipments**  **forecasts for**  **the base**  **case and** 

**standards cases**  **for 4­foot**  **medium bipin,**  **8­foot single**  **pin slimline,**  **and 8­foot**  **recessed double** 

**contact HO**  **lamps in**  **both the**  **shift and**  **roll­up scenarios.** 

**Quantities of**  **lamp shipments**  **depend on**  **the occurrence**  **of the**  **lamp purchasing**  **events,**

**lamp failure,**  **ballast failure,**  **ballast retrofit,**  **and new**  **construction. As**  **discussed earlier,**  **instead**

**of using**  **each particular**  **lamp design’s**  **individual lifetime**  **to time**  **lamp replacements,**  **DOE uses**  **a**

**representative lifetime**  **for each**  **analyzed lamp**  **type. For**  **this reason,**  **the rate**  **of lamp** 

**9­48 replacement**  **does not**  **change between**  **the shift**  **and roll­up**  **standards­case scenarios.**  **In addition,** 

**since ballast**  **lifetime does**  **not change,**  **the rate**  **of ballast**  **failure is**  **also the**  **same in**  **both**

**scenarios. Since**  **the ballast**  **retrofit rate**  **is an**  **input external**  **to the**  **market­share matrices,**  **the rate** 

**of occurrence**  **of ballast**  **retrofits are**  **the same**  **for both**  **scenarios. Using**  **the shift**  **or roll­up** 

**scenarios does**  **affect the**  **average lumen**  **output of**  **the lamp­and­ballast**  **systems shipped,**  **and**

**therefore the**  **quantities of**  **systems shipped**  **due to**  **new construction.**  **However, new**  **construction**

**is a**  **fairly small**  **market segment**  **of lamp**  **shipments. Therefore,**  **though presented**  **separately in** 

**the following**  **tables, the**  **shift and**  **roll­up standards­case**  **scenarios result**  **in similar**  **quantities of** 

**shipments for**  **all GSFL**  **lamp types.** 

**As seen**  **in Figure**  **9.5.1 and**  **Figure 9.5.2**  **the standards­case**  **forecasts of**  **4­foot medium** 

**bipin lamps**  **experience similar**  **trends as**  **the base**  **case, though**  **at modified**  **rates. In**  **both the**  **base**

**case and**  **standards case,**  **the shipments**  **forecast depicts**  **a phase­out,**  **and therefore**  **decrease in** 

**shipments, of**  **4­foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **lamps. This**  **trend is**  **matched by**  **a corresponding** 

**increase in**  **shipments of**  **4­foot T8**  **medium bipin**  **lamps due**  **to the**  **T12 replacements**  **and also** 

**growth in**  **lumen demand**  **in the**  **commercial sector.**  **In addition,**  **these T8**  **shipments increase**  **due**

**to the**  **replacement of**  **90 percent**  **of 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin slimline**  **system with**  **4­foot T8**  **medium**

**bipin systems.**  **With increasing**  **CSL, the**  **early retrofit**  **rates of**  **4­foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **systems**

**increase. Because**  **4­foot T12**  **medium bipin**  **and 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin slimline**  **lamps are**  **no**

**longer standards­compliant**  **at CSL4**  **and CSL5,**  **these systems**  **are automatically**  **retrofitted upon** 

**lamp failure.**  **Both these**  **voluntary retrofits**  **and standard­induced**  **retrofits increase**  **shipments of** 

**4­foot T8**  **medium bipin,**  **especially in**  **the first**  **few years**  **after the**  **effective date**  **of the**  **standard.**

**These increased**  **shipments are**  **echoed throughout**  **the analysis**  **period as**  **this large**  **number of** 

**shipped lamps**  **retires simultaneously**  **every 6**  **years.**

**9­49**Figure 9.5.1 Four­Foot Medium Bipin Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipments

Forecasts (Shift Scenario)*

***** **These forecasts**  **assume that**  **8­foot single**  **pin slimline**  **lamps are**  **in the**  **base case.**  

### 1.2 1.4 Base Case 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL1 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL2 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL3 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL4 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL5 4­foot T8 MBP Base Case 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL1 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL2 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL3 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL4 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL5 4­foot T12 MBP



### 1.0

0.8Shipments(billions)



### 0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year 2035 2040 2045

**9­50**

### 1.2 1.4 Base Case 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL1 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL2 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL3 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL4 4­foot T8 MBP

CSL5 4­foot T8 MBP Base Case 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL1 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL2 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL3 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL4 4­foot T12 MBP

CSL5 4­foot T12 MBP



### 1.0Shipments(billions)



### 0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year 2035 2040 2045

Figure 9.5.2 Four­Foot Medium Bipin Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipments

Forecasts (Roll­Up Scenario)

***** **These forecasts**  **assume that**  **8­foot single**  **pin slimline**  **lamps are**  **in the**  **base case.** 

**As seen**  **in Figure**  **9.5.3 and**  **Figure 9.5.4,**  **the standards­case**  **forecasts of**  **8­foot single**  **pin**

**slimline lamps**  **experience similar**  **trends as**  **the base**  **case, though**  **at modified**  **rates. In**  **both the** 

**base case**  **and standards**  **case, the**  **shipment forecast**  **depicts a**  **phase­out, and**  **therefore decrease**  **in**

**shipments, of**  **8­foot T12**  **single pin**  **slimline lamps.**  **This trend**  **is matched**  **by a**  **corresponding**

**increase in**  **shipments of**  **8­foot T8**  **single pin**  **slimline lamps**  **due to**  **the replacement**  **of 10**  **percent**

**of 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin slimline**  **system with**  **8­foot T8**  **single pin**  **slimline systems.**  **With**

**increasing CSL,**  **the early**  **retrofit rates**  **of 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin slimline**  **systems increase.** 

**Because 8­foot**  **T12 single**  **pin slimline**  **lamps are**  **no longer**  **standards­compliant at**  **CSL4 and** 

**CSL5, these**  **systems are**  **automatically retrofitted**  **upon lamp**  **failure. Both**  **these voluntary** 

**retrofits and**  **standard­induced retrofits**  **increase shipments**  **of 8­foot**  **T8 single**  **pin slimline,** 

**especially in**  **the first**  **few years**  **after the**  **effective date**  **of the**  **standard. These**  **increased**

**shipments are**  **echoed throughout**  **the analysis**  **period as**  **this large**  **number of**  **shipped lamps** 

**retires simultaneously**  **every 4**  **years.**

**9­51**Figure 9.5.3 Eight­Foot Single Pin Slimline Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipments

Forecasts (Shift Scenario) 

### 0.018 Base Case 8­foot T8 SP Base Case 8­foot T12 SP

CSL1 8­foot T8 SP CSL1 8­foot T12 SP



### 0.016 CSL2 8­foot T8 SP CSL2 8­foot T12 SP

CSL3 8­foot T8 SP CSL3 8­foot T12 SP

CSL4 8­foot T8 SP CSL4 8­foot T12 SP 

### 0.014 CSL5 8­foot T8 MBP CSL5 8­foot T12 SP



### 0.012Shipments(billions)



### 0.010

0.008

0.006

0.004

0.002

0.000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

**9­52**

### 0.018

Base Case 8­foot T8 SP Base Case 8­foot T12 SP

CSL1 8­foot T8 SP CSL1 8­foot T12 SP



### 0.016 CSL2 8­foot T8 SP CSL2 8­foot T12 SP

CSL3 8­foot T8 SP CSL3 8­foot T12 SP



### 0.014 CSL4 8­foot T8 SP

CSL5 8­foot T8 MBP CSL4 8­foot T12 SP

CSL5 8­foot T12 SP



### 0.012

0.010Shipments(billions)



### 0.008

0.006

0.004

0.002

0.000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 9.5.4 Eight­Foot Single Pin Slimline Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipments

Forecasts (Roll­up Scenario)

**As seen**  **in Figure**  **9.5.5, the**  **standards­case shipment**  **forecasts of**  **8­foot recessed**  **double**

**contact HO**  **lamps are**  **identical to**  **the base**  **case at**  **CSL1, CSL2,**  **and CSL3.**  **The only**  **difference**

**between the**  **base case**  **and these**  **standards levels**  **is that**  **higher efficacy**  **lamps are**  **being shipped** 

**in the**  **standards cases.**  **However, because**  **8­foot T12**  **recessed double**  **contact HO**  **lamps are**  **no**

**longer standards­compliant**  **at CSL4**  **and CSL5,**  **these systems**  **are automatically**  **retrofitted upon** 

**lamp failure**  **to 8­foot**  **T8 recessed**  **double contact**  **HO systems.**  **These ballast**  **retrofits and**  **lamp**

**replacements are**  **a one­to­one**  **replacement, resulting**  **in the**  **same quantity**  **of T8**  **shipments in**  **the**

**standards case**  **as T12**  **shipments in**  **the base**  **case.**

**9­53**

### 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035Shipments(billions)

Base Case 8­foot T12 HO Base Case 8­foot T8 HO

CSL1 8­foot T12 HO CSL1 8­foot T8 HO

CSL2 8­foot T12 HO CSL2 8­foot T8 HO

CSL3 8­foot T12 HO CSL3 8­foot T8 HO

CSL4 8­foot T12 HO CSL4 8­foot T8 HO

CSL5 8­foot T12 HO CSL5 8­foot T8 HO



### 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 9.5.5 Eight­Foot Recessed Double Contact High Output Base­Case and StandardsCase Shipments Forecasts (Shift and Roll­up Scenarios)

9.5.1.2 Cumulative Shipments Impacts (2012

– 2042)

**Table 9.5.1**  **through Table**  **9.5.4 show**  **the cumulative**  **shipments impacts**  **from 2012**  **to**

**2042 caused**  **by each**  **of the**  **five standards**  **cases considered**  **for 4­foot**  **medium bipin,**  **8­foot**

**single pin**  **slimline, and**  **8­foot recessed**  **double contact**  **HO lamps**  **in the**  **shift and**  **roll­up**

**scenarios. As**  **discussed earlier,**  **quantities of**  **lamp shipments**  **in the**  **standards case**  **are based**  **on**

**lamp replacement**  **rates, ballast**  **replacement rates,**  **shipments due**  **to new**  **construction, and**  **ballast**

**retrofit rates.**  **However, because**  **all lamps**  **within a**  **particular product**  **class are**  **assumed to**  **have**

**the same**  **lifetime, lamp**  **replacement rates**  **in the**  **base case**  **and standards**  **case are**  **equivalent. In** 

**addition, because**  **the ballast**  **lifetime never**  **varies from**  **15 years,**  **ballast replacement**  **rates are** 

**equivalent in**  **the base**  **case and**  **standards case.**  **The only**  **aspects that**  **do vary**  **are the**  **shipments**

**due to**  **new construction**  **(because average**  **lumen outputs**  **per system**  **vary) and**  **ballast retrofit** 

**rates (for**  **4­foot medium**  **bipin and**  **8­foot single**  **pin slimline**  **systems).**

**Table 9.5.1**  **and Table**  **9.5.2 show**  **that as**  **ballast retrofit**  **rates increase**  **with standard** 

**levels, 4­foot**  **medium bipin**  **cumulative lamp**  **shipments generally**  **increase as**  **well. With**  **higher**

**retrofit rates,**  **consumers are**  **discarding their**  **existing, working**  **lamps and**  **therefore must**  **make**

**more total**  **lamp purchases.**  **However, the**  **average lumen**  **output per**  **system affects**  **these**

**cumulative shipments**  **as well.**  **For example,**  **as seen**  **in Table**  **9.5.2, a**  **high average**  **lumen output** 

**9­54 per**  **lamp system**  **at CSL4**  **results in**  **fewer shipments**  **due to**  **new construction,**  **and therefore**  **fewer**

**cumulative shipments.** 

Table 9.5.1 Four­Foot Medium Bipin Lamp: Cumulative Shipments Impacts Caused by

Standards, 2012–2042 (Shift Scenario)

Candidate Standard Level Cumulative Impacts (millions of lamps)

**1 39.9** 

**2 76.8** 

**3 386.7** 

**4 236.2** 

**5 228.9** 

Table 9.5.2 Four­Foot Medium Bipin Lamp: Cumulative Shipments Impacts Caused by

Standards, 2012–2042 (Roll­up Scenario)

Candidate Standard Level Cumulative Impacts (millions of lamps)

**1 39.9** 

**2 76.8** 

**3 176.2** 

**4 ­24.6** 

**5 134.1** 

**Because there**  **is no**  **assumed 8­foot**  **single pin**  **slimline and**  **8­foot recessed**  **double contact** 

**HO markets**  **due to**  **new construction,**  **cumulative shipment**  **impacts do**  **not vary**  **when changing** 

**the technology**  **mix of**  **shipments. Table**  **9.5.3 and**  **Table 9.5.4**  **present cumulative**  **shipments**

**impacts for**  **both the**  **shift and**  **roll­up scenarios.**  **As seen**  **in Table**  **9.5.3, cumulative**  **impacts**

**decrease with**  **increasing standard**  **levels because**  **of the**  **large number**  **of 8­foot**  **single pin**  **slimline**

**systems that**  **experience an**  **early turnover**  **to 4­foot**  **medium bipin**  **systems. Table**  **9.5.4 shows**  **no**

**cumulative shipment**  **impacts for**  **8­foot recessed**  **double contact**  **HO lamps**  **because the**  **shipment**

**model for**  **the industrial**  **sector does**  **not incorporate**  **retrofits.**

Table 9.5.3 Eight­Foot Single Pin Slimline: Cumulative Shipments Impacts Caused by

Standards, 2012–2042 (Shift and Roll­up Scenarios)

Candidate Standard Level Cumulative Impacts (millions of lamps)

**1 ­21.0** 

**2 ­34.9** 

**3 ­44.5** 

**4 ­70.4** 

**5 ­70.3** 

**9­55**Table 9.5.4 Eight­Foot Recessed Double Contact High Output: Cumulative Shipments

Impacts Caused by Standards, 2012–2042 (Shift and Roll­up Scenarios)

Candidate Standard Level Cumulative Impacts (millions of lamps)

**1 0** 

**2 0** 

**3 0** 

**4 0** 

**5 0** 

9.5.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

**This section**  **presents shipment**  **results for**  **the IRL**  **main shipment**  **scenario. The**  **results**

**for the**  **65 Watt**  **BR lamp**  **substitution and**  **the10­percent lumen**  **increase sensitivity**  **scenarios are** 

**presented in**  **Appendix 10B.** 

9.5.2.1 Shipments Forecasts: Base and Standards Cases

**Figure 9.5.6**  **and Figure**  **9.5.7 present**  **the shipments**  **forecasts for**  **the base**  **case and** 

**standards cases**  **for commercial**  **and residential**  **IRLs in**  **the main**  **shipment scenario.** 

**Figure 9.5.6**  **displays the**  **commercial IRL**  **base­case and**  **standards­case shipment** 

**forecasts. At**  **CSL1, consumers**  **who in**  **the base**  **case purchase**  **halogen IRL**  **(some of**  **which are** 

**2,500 hours),**  **instead purchase**  **improved halogen**  **IRL (with**  **a lifetime**  **of 3,000**  **hours) in**  **the**

**standards case.**  **Similarly, at**  **CSL2 all**  **consumers purchase**  **HIR IRL**  **with a**  **lifetime of**  **3,000**

**hours. Because**  **the lifetimes**  **of the**  **CSL1 and**  **CSL2 lamp**  **designs are**  **longer than**  **that of**  **the**

**base case**  **lamps, lamp**  **replacements occur**  **less frequently,**  **thereby causing**  **a reduction**  **in**

**shipments. The**  **longer lifetimes**  **(4,000 hours)**  **of improved**  **halogen lamps**  **designs at**  **CSL3**

**cause an**  **even further**  **reduction in**  **IRL shipments.** 

**9­56**

### 0.12Shipments(billions) 

### 0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

Base­Case Forecast

CSL1 

### 0.02

CSL2

CSL3



### 0.00

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 9.5.6 Commercial IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (Main

Shipment Scenario)

**Figure 9.5.7**  **displays the**  **residential IRL**  **base­case and**  **standards­case shipments**  **in the** 

**main shipment**  **scenario. Similar**  **to the**  **commercial sector**  **shipments, average**  **shipments in**  **the**

**standards cases**  **are lower**  **than the**  **base case**  **shipments due**  **to the**  **integration of**  **longer lifetime** 

**lamp designs.**  **As seen**  **in the**  **figure, in**  **the residential**  **sector, shipments**  **exhibit oscillatory** 

**behavior in**  **the standards**  **case. These**  **oscillations are**  **primarily due**  **to the**  **shifting from**  **lamp**

**designs in**  **the base**  **case to**  **standards­case lamp**  **designs with**  **significantly longer**  **service**

**lifetimes. For**  **example, IRL**  **shipments at**  **CSL1 oscillate**  **because of**  **the shift**  **from lamps**  **whose**

**service life**  **is 2.8**  **years to**  **lamps whose**  **service life**  **is 3.4**  **years. As**  **these 2.8**  **year lifetime**  **lamps**

**purchased before**  **2011 fail,**  **consumers will**  **purchase longer­lived**  **lamps that**  **do not**  **need to**  **be**

**replaced for**  **another 3.4**  **years. Therefore,**  **standards­case shipments**  **drop in**  **2014, when**  **base**

**case consumers**  **would replace**  **lamps whose**  **service life**  **is 2.8**  **years. Standards­case**  **shipments**

**rise again**  **in 2016,**  **approximately 3.4**  **years after**  **the majority**  **of lamps**  **purchased before**  **2011**

**fail. These**  **oscillations in**  **shipments continue**  **for the**  **entire 30­year**  **analysis period.**  **Oscillations**

**do not**  **appear in**  **the commercial**  **shipment forecasts**  **because lower**  **operating hours**  **do not**  **result**

**in as**  **large of**  **a spread**  **in service**  **lifetimes. For**  **example, halogen**  **lamps (90W**  **and 75W)** 

**operating in**  **the commercial**  **sector have**  **a lifetime**  **of 0.7**  **years, while**  **halogen improved**  **lamps**

**operating in**  **the commercial**  **sector have**  **a lifetime**  **of 0.9**  **years.**

**9­57**

### 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12Shipments(billions) Base­Case Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3



### 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 9.5.7 Residential IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipments Forecasts (Main

Shipment Scenario)

9.5.2.2 Cumulative Shipments Impacts (2012–2042)

**Table 9.5.5**  **and Table**  **9.5.6 present**  **cumulative shipment**  **impacts for**  **commercial and** 

**residential IRL**  **in the**  **main shipment**  **scenario. Shipment**  **impacts are**  **associated with**  **the**

**increased lifetime**  **of standards­case**  **lamps. Because**  **the service**  **life generally**  **increases with** 

**each CSL,**  **cumulative impacts**  **become more**  **negative.**

Table 9.5.5 Commercial Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards, 2012–2042 (Main Shipment Scenario)

Candidate Standard Level IRL Cumulative Impacts (billions of lamps)

**1 ­0.244** 

**2 ­0.244** 

**3 ­0.879** 

**9­58**Table 9.5.6 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards, 2012–2042 (Main Shipment Scenario)

Candidate Standard Level IRL Cumulative Impacts (billions of lamps)

**1 ­0.340** 

**2 ­0.340** 

**3 ­0.920** 

**9­59**REFERENCES

**1 National**  **Electrical Manufacturers**  **Association. 2006.**  **No. 12**  **at p.**  **7. This**  **written comment,** 

**document number**  **12, is**  **available in**  **Docket #**  **EE–2006–STD–0131. For**  **more information,** 

**contact Brenda**  **Edwards­Jones at**  **(202) 586­2945.** 

**2 U.S.**  **Department of**  **Energy, Energy**  **Information Administration.**  **Commercial Building**  **Energy**

**Consumption Survey:**  **Table A1:**  **Summary Table**  **for All**  **Buildings (Including**  **Malls). 2003.** 

**Washington, D.C.** 

**< http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/cbecs2003/detailed_tables_2003/2003set1/2003excel/a1.xl** 

**s >** 

**3 U.S.**  **Department of**  **Energy, Energy**  **Information Administration.**  **1999 Commercial**  **Building**

**Energy Consumption**  **Survey: Table**  **B1: Summary**  **Table: Totals**  **and Means**  **of Floorspace,** 

**Number of**  **Workers, and**  **Hours of**  **Operation. 1999.**  **Washington, D.C.** 

**< http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/excel/b1.xls**  **>**

**4 Ibid.** 

**5 U.S.**  **Department of**  **Energy, Energy**  **Information Administration.**  **2001 Residential**  **Building**

**Energy Consumption**  **Survey: Table**  **CE1­5.2u: Total**  **Energy Consumption**  **and Expenditures**  **by**

**Square Feet**  **and Household**  **Demographics, 2001.**  **2001 Washington,**  **D.C.**

**< http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/recs2001/ce_pdf/enduse/ce1­52u_sqft_demo2001.pdf**  **>.**

**U.S. Department**  **of Energy,**  **Energy Information**  **Administration. 1997**  **Residential Building** 

**Energy Consumption**  **Survey: Table**  **CE1­1c: Total**  **Energy Consumption**  **in U.S.**  **Households by** 

**Climate Zone,**  **1997. 1997.**  **Washington, D.C.** 

**< ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/consumption/residential/ce_tables/enduse_consump.pdf**  **>.**

**6 U.S.**  **Census Bureau.**  **Current Industrial**  **Reports, Fluorescent**  **Lamp Ballasts:**  **2005: Table**  **1.**

**Summary of**  **Shipments of**  **Fluorescent Lamp**  **Ballasts: 1995**  **to 2005.**  **2006. Washington,**  **D.C.**

**< http://www.census.gov/industry/1/mq335c055.pdf**  **>.**

**7 U.S.**  **Census Bureau.**  **Current Industrial**  **Reports, Fluorescent**  **Lamp Ballasts:**  **2005: Table**  **1.**

**Summary of**  **Shipments of**  **Fluorescent Lamp**  **Ballasts: 1992**  **to 2002.**  **2003. Washington,**  **D.C.**

**< http://www.census.gov/industry/1/mq335c025.pdf**  **>.**

**8 This**  **written comment,**  **document number**  **17, was**  **submitted in**  **response to**  **the Energy** 

**Conservation Program**  **for Commercial**  **and Industrial**  **Equipment: High­Intensity**  **Discharge**

**(HID) Lamps**  **and is**  **available in**  **Docket #**  **EE–DET­03­001.**

**9 New**  **York State**  **Energy Research**  **and Development**  **Authority.** Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Study of Proposed Energy Efficiency Standards for New York State

**. 2006**  **(Last accessed** 

**October 7,**  **2006) <**  **http://www.nyserda.org/publications/Report%2006­07­Complete%20report**

**9­60 web.pdf**  **> The**  **October 7,**  **2006 material**  **from this**  **website is**  **available in**  **Docket #**  **EE–2006–**

**STD–0131. For**  **more information,**  **contact Brenda**  **Edwards­Jones at**  **(202) 586­2945.** 

**9­61**