TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT: RESIDENTIAL DISHWASHERS, DEHUMI DIFIERS, AND COOKING PRODUCTS,

CHAPTER 1 CHAP TER 2 CHAPTER 3 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 6 CHAPTER 7 CHAPTER 8 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 13 CHAPTER 14 AND COMMERCIAL CLOTHES WASHERS CHAPTERS INTRODUCTION ANAL YTICAL FRAMEWORK MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT SCREENING ANALYSIS ENGINEERING ANALYSIS ENERGY AND WATER USE DETERMINATION MARKUPS FOR EQUI PMENT PRICE DETERMINATION LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS LIFE-CYCLE COST SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS REPORTS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR RE SIDENTIAL DISHWASHERS, DEHUMIDIFIERS, AND COOKING PRODUCTS, AND COMMERCIAL CLOTHES WASHERS REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR RESIDENTI AL DISHWASHERS, DEHUMIDIFIERS, AND COOKING PRODUCTS, AND COMMERCIAL CLOTHES WASHERS APPENDICES APPENDIX 5A AHAM DATA SUBMITTAL APPENDIX 5B MANUFACTURER INTERVIEW GUIDES APPENDIX 5C THE LOW-VOLUME MANUFACTURER APPENDIX 6A COOKTOPS AND OVENS: DETE RMINATION OF ENERGY-USING COMPONETNS APPENDIX 8A USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LCC AND PBP SPREADSHEETS APPENDIX 8B UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY APPENDIX 8C HOUSEHOLD DISC OUNT R ATE DISTRIBUTIONS APPENDIX 9A RELATIVE PRICE ELAS TICITY OF DEMAND F OR APPLIANCES APPENDIX 10A USER INSTRUCTION FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA SPREADSHEETS APPENDIX 10B NATIONAL EQUIPMENT AND OPERATING COSTS TOC-iTECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT: RESIDENTIAL DISHWASHERS, DEHUMI DIFIERS, AND COOKING PRODUCTS, AND COMMERCIAL CLOTHES WASHERS TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 PURPOSE OF TH E DOCUM ENT ........................................................................... 1-1 1.2 OVERVIEW OF STANDARDS FO R RESIDENTIAL DISHW ASHERS, DEHUMIDIFIERS, AND COOKING PRODUCTS, AND COMMERCIAL CLOTHES WASH ERS ............................................................................................. 1-1 1.3 PROCESS FOR SETTING ENERGY CONERVATION STANDARDS ................. 1-2 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUM ENT ...................................................................... 1-6 CHAPTER 2. ANALY TICAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 BACKGR OUND ...................................................................................................... 2-3 2.3 MARKET AND TECHNO LOGY ASSESS M ENT ................................................... 2-4 2.3.1 Market Assessment .............................................................................................. 2-4 2.3.2 Technology Assessment ....................................................................................... 2-4 2.4 SCREENING ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 2-5 2.5 ENGINEERI NG ANALYSIS ................................................................................... 2-5 2.5.1 Manufacturing Cost Assessment .......................................................................... 2-6 2.6 ENERGY AND WATER US E DETERMI NATION ................................................ 2-6 2.7 MARKUPS FOR EQUIPMENT PRICE DETERMI NATI ON .................................. 2-7 2.8 LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYB ACK PERIOD A NALYSI S ................................ 2-7 2.9 NATIONAL IMPA CT ANALYSI S .......................................................................... 2-8 2.9.1 National Energy Savings Analysis ....................................................................... 2-9 2.9.2 Net Present Va lue Analysis ................................................................................. 2-9 2.9.3 Forecasted Efficiencies ...................................................................................... 2-10 2.10 MANUFACTURER IM PACT ANAL YSIS ............................................................ 2-10 2.11 LIFE-CYCLE COST SU BGROUP ANALY SI S ..................................................... 2-11 2.12 UTILITY IMPA CT ANALYSI S ............................................................................ 2-11 2.13 EMPLOYMENT IM PACT ANALYSI S ................................................................. 2-12 2.14 ENVIRONMENTA L ASSESSM E NT .................................................................... 2-12 2.15 REGULATORY IM PACT ANALYSI S .................................................................. 2-13 CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 3.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 3-1 TOC-ii3.2 PRODUCT DEFINITIONS ...................................................................................... 3-1 3.3 PRODUCT CL ASSES .............................................................................................. 3-2 3.4 PRODUCT TEST PROCEDUR ES ........................................................................... 3-5 3.5 MANUFACTURER TRADE GROU PS ................................................................... 3-6 3.5.1 Association of Home Ap pliance Manufacturers .................................................. 3-6 3.5.2 Coin Laundry Association ................................................................................... 3-6 3.5.3 Multi-housing Laundry Association .................................................................... 3-7 3.6 MANUFACTURER INFORM ATION ..................................................................... 3-7 3.6.1 Manufacturers and Market Shares ....................................................................... 3-7 3.6.2 Mergers and Acquisitions .................................................................................. 3-14 3.6.3 Small Busine ss Impacts ..................................................................................... 3-16 3.6.4 Distribution Channels ........................................................................................ 3-17 3.7 REGULATORY PROGRAM S ............................................................................... 3-18 3.7.1 Current Federal Energy C onservation Standards ............................................... 3-18 3.7.2 Energy Policy Act of 2005 ................................................................................. 3-19 3.7.3 State Energy Conservation Standards ................................................................ 3-21 3.7.4 Canadian Energy Conservation Standards ......................................................... 3-22 3.8 VOLUNTARY PROGRAMS ................................................................................. 3-24 3.8.1 Consortium for Energy Efficiency ..................................................................... 3-24 3.8.2 Energy Star ......................................................................................................... 3-25 3.8.3 Federal Energy Management Program .............................................................. 3-26 3.9 HISTORICAL SHIPM ENTS .................................................................................. 3-27 3.9.1 New Home Starts ............................................................................................... 3-27 3.9.2 Unit Shipments ................................................................................................... 3-28 3.9.3 Value of Shipments ............................................................................................ 3-30 3.9.4 Imports and Exports ........................................................................................... 3-31 3.10 MARKET SA TURATION ..................................................................................... 3-33 3.11 PRODUCT RETA I L PRICES ................................................................................. 3-34 3.12 INDUSTRY COST STRUCTUR E ......................................................................... 3-37 3.13 INVENTORY LEVELS AND CAPACITY UTIL IZATION RATES ..................... 3-39 3.14 TECHNOLOGY ASSESSM ENT ........................................................................... 3-40 3.14.1 Product Operations and Components ................................................................. 3-40 3.14.1.1 Dishwashers ..................................................................................... 3-40 3.14.1.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................. 3-42 3.14.1.3 Cooking Products ............................................................................. 3-43 3.14.1.4 Commercial Clothes Washers .......................................................... 3-46 3.14.2 Technology Options ........................................................................................... 3-47 3.14.2.1 Dishwashers ..................................................................................... 3-47 3.14.2.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................. 3-54 3.14.2.3 Cooking Products ............................................................................. 3-63 Commercial Clothes Washers ............................................................................ 3-83 3.14.3 Energy Efficiency .............................................................................................. 3-94 3.14.3.1 Dishwashers ..................................................................................... 3-95 3.14.3.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................. 3-95 3.14.3.3 Cooking Products ............................................................................. 3-97 TOC-iii3.14.3.4 Commercial Clothes Washers ........................................................ 3-105 CHAPTER 4. SCREENING ANALYSIS 4.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 DISCUSSION OF DE SIGN OPTI ONS .................................................................... 4-1 4.2.1 Screened-Out Design Options .............................................................................. 4-2 4.2.1.1 Dishwashers ....................................................................................... 4-3 4.2.1.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................... 4-4 4.2.1.3 Cooking Products ............................................................................... 4-4 4.2.1.4 Commercial Clothes Washers ............................................................ 4-8 4.2.2 Remaining Design Options .................................................................................. 4-9 4.2.2.1 Dishwashers ....................................................................................... 4-9 4.2.2.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................. 4-10 4.2.2.3 Cooking Products ............................................................................. 4-10 4.2.2.4 Commercial Clothes Washers .......................................................... 4-12 CHAPTER 5. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS 5.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 TECHNOLOGIES UNABLE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ANOPR ANALYSI S .............................................................................................................. 5-1 5.3 PRODUCT CLASSE S ANALY ZED ........................................................................ 5-5 5.4 EFFICIENCY LEVELS ............................................................................................ 5-8 5.4.1 Baseline Units ...................................................................................................... 5-8 5.4.2 Incremental Effi ciency Levels ........................................................................... 5-10 5.5 METHODOLOGY OVERVIE W ............................................................................ 5-15 5.5.1 AHAM Data Request ......................................................................................... 5-16 5.5.2 Manufacturer Interviews .................................................................................... 5-16 5.5.3 Product Teardowns ............................................................................................ 5-17 5.5.3.1 Generation of Bill of Materials ........................................................ 5-18 5.5.3.2 Cost Structure of the Spreadsheet Models ....................................... 5-18 5.5.4 Review of Previous Technical Support Documents .......................................... 5-20 5.5.5 Product Testing .................................................................................................. 5-20 5.6 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ................................................................................. 5-20 5.6.1 Dishwashers ....................................................................................................... 5-20 5.6.1.1 AHAM Data ..................................................................................... 5-20 5.6.1.2 Product Testing ................................................................................ 5-23 5.6.1.3 Product Teardown ............................................................................ 5-30 5.6.1.4 Manufacturer Interviews .................................................................. 5-38 5.6.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................................... 5-41 5.6.2.1 AHAM Data ..................................................................................... 5-41 5.6.2.2 Manufacturer Interviews .................................................................. 5-46 5.6.2.3 Product Teardowns .......................................................................... 5-47 TOC-iv5.6.3 Cooking Products ............................................................................................... 5-57 5.6.3.1 AHAM Data ..................................................................................... 5-57 5.6.3.2 Review of Past TSDs ....................................................................... 5-63 5.6.4 Commercial Clothes Washers ............................................................................ 5-70 5.6.4.1 AHAM Data ..................................................................................... 5-70 5.6.4.2 Manufacturer Interviews .................................................................. 5-72 5.6.4.3 Review of Past TSD ......................................................................... 5-79 CHAPTER 6. ENERGY AND WATER USE DET ERMINATION 6.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 DISHWASH ERS ...................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2.1 Per-Cycle Energy and Water Cons umption by Efficiency Level ........................ 6-1 6.2.2 Average Annual Energy and Water Consumption by Efficiency Level .............. 6-4 6.2.3 Variability of Annual Energy and Water Consumption ...................................... 6-6 6.3 DEHUMIDIFIERS ................................................................................................... 6-7 6.3.1 Average Annual Usage ........................................................................................ 6-7 6.3.2 Average Annual Energy Consumption ................................................................ 6-9 6.3.3 Average Annual Energy Consumption by Efficiency Level ............................. 6-10 6.3.4 Variability of Annual Energy Consumption ...................................................... 6-12 6.4 COOKING PR ODUCTS ........................................................................................ 6-14 6.4.1 Cooktops and Ovens .......................................................................................... 6-14 6.4.1.1 Average Annual Energy Consumption ............................................ 6-14 6.4.1.2 Annual Energy Consumption of Energy-Using Components .......... 6-18 6.4.1.3 Annual Energy Consumption by Efficiency Level .......................... 6-19 6.4.1.4 Variability of Annual Energy Consumption .................................... 6-23 6.4.2 Microwave Ovens .............................................................................................. 6-29 6.4.2.1 Average Annual Energy Consumption ............................................ 6-29 6.4.2.2 Annual Energy Consumption by Efficiency Level .......................... 6-31 6.4.2.3 Variability of Annual Energy Consumption .................................... 6-32 6.5 COMMERCIAL CLOT HES WASHER S ............................................................... 6-33 6.5.1 Per-Cycle Energy and Water Cons umption by Efficiency Level ...................... 6-33 6.5.2 Average Annual Energy and Water Consumption by Efficiency Level ............ 6-37 6.5.3 Variability of Annual Energy and Water Consumption .................................... 6-40 CHAPTER 7. MARKUPS FOR EQUI PME NT PRICE DETERMINATION 7.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 7-1 7.1.1 Distribution Channels .......................................................................................... 7-1 7.1.1.1 Residential Products ........................................................................... 7-1 7.1.1.2 Commercial Clothes Washers ............................................................ 7-1 7.1.2 Markup Calculation Procedure ............................................................................ 7-2 7.1.2.1 Approach for Manufacturer Markups ................................................ 7-3 7.1.2.2 Approach for Retailer and Distributor Markups ................................ 7-3 TOC-v7.1.2.3 Overall Markup .................................................................................. 7-5 7.2 MANUFACTURER MARKUPS .............................................................................. 7-6 7.3 RETAILER MARKUP FOR RESI DENTIAL PR ODUCTS ..................................... 7-7 7.4 DISTRIBUTOR MARKUPS FOR COMM ERCIAL CLOTHES WASHERS ........... 7-8 7.5 SALES TA XES ...................................................................................................... 7-10 7.6 SUMMARY OF MARKUPS .................................................................................. 7-12 CHAPTER 8. LIFE-CYCLE COST AN D PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS 8.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 8-1 8.1.1 General Approach for LCC and PBP Analysis .................................................... 8-1 8.1.2 Overview of LCC and PBP Inputs ....................................................................... 8-3 8.2 LIFE-CYCLE CO ST I NPUTS ................................................................................ 8-13 8.2.1 Total Installed Cost Inputs ................................................................................. 8-13 8.2.1.1 Dishwashers ..................................................................................... 8-15 8.2.1.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................. 8-17 8.2.1.3 Cooking Products – Cooktops ......................................................... 8-21 8.2.1.4 Cooking Products – Ovens ............................................................... 8-25 8.2.1.5 Cooking Products – Microwave Ovens ........................................... 8-29 8.2.1.6 Commercial Clothes Washers .......................................................... 8-31 8.2.2 Operating Cost Inputs ........................................................................................ 8-33 8.2.2.1 Annual Energy and Water Consumption ......................................... 8-36 8.2.2.2 Energy and Water Prices .................................................................. 8-42 8.2.2.3 Energy and Water Price Trends ....................................................... 8-56 8.2.2.4 Repair and Maintenance Costs ......................................................... 8-59 8.2.3 Product Lifetime ................................................................................................ 8-59 8.2.3.1 Dishwashers ..................................................................................... 8-60 8.2.3.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................. 8-60 8.2.3.3 Cooking Products – Cooktops and Ovens ....................................... 8-61 8.2.3.4 Cooking Products – Microwave Ovens ........................................... 8-62 8.2.3.5 Commercial Clothes Washers .......................................................... 8-63 8.2.4 Discount Rates ................................................................................................... 8-64 8.2.4.1 Discount Rate for New Housing Equipment ................................... 8-65 8.2.4.2 Discount Rate for Residential Replacement Equipment .................. 8-66 8.2.4.3 Discount Rates for Commercial Clothes Washers ........................... 8-69 8.2.5 Effective Date of Standard ................................................................................. 8-72 8.2.6 Equipment Assignment for the Base Case ......................................................... 8-72 8.2.6.1 Dishwashers ..................................................................................... 8-73 8.2.6.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................. 8-74 8.2.6.3 Cooking Products – Cooktops ......................................................... 8-75 8.2.6.4 Cooking Products – Ovens ............................................................... 8-77 8.2.6.5 Cooking Products – Microwave Ovens ........................................... 8-79 8.2.6.6 Commercial Clothes Washers .......................................................... 8-80 8.3 PAYBACK PERI OD I NPUTS ............................................................................... 8-81 TOC-vi8.4 LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYB ACK PERIOD RE SULTS ................................. 8-82 8.4.1 Dishwashers ....................................................................................................... 8-83 8.4.1.1 Base Case LCC Distributions .......................................................... 8-83 8.4.1.2 Standard-Level Distributions of LCC Impacts ................................ 8-83 8.4.1.3 Standard-Level PBP Distributions ................................................... 8-84 8.4.1.4 LCC and PBP Results ...................................................................... 8-85 8.4.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................................... 8-88 8.4.2.1 Base Case LCC Distributions .......................................................... 8-88 8.4.2.2 Standard-Level Distributions of LCC Impacts ................................ 8-89 8.4.2.3 Standard-Level PBP Distributions ................................................... 8-90 8.4.2.4 LCC and PBP Results ...................................................................... 8-91 8.4.3 Cooking Products – Cooktops ........................................................................... 8-96 8.4.3.1 Base Case LCC Distributions .......................................................... 8-96 8.4.3.2 Standard-Level Distributions of LCC Impacts ................................ 8-98 8.4.3.3 Standard-Level PBP Distributions ................................................... 8-99 8.4.3.4 LCC and PBP Results .................................................................... 8-100 8.4.4 Cooking Products – Ovens ............................................................................... 8-104 8.4.4.1 Base Case LCC Distributions ........................................................ 8-104 8.4.4.2 Standard-Level Distributions of LCC Impacts .............................. 8-106 8.4.4.3 Standard-Level PBP Distributions ................................................. 8-107 8.4.4.4 LCC and PBP Results .................................................................... 8-108 8.4.5 Cooking Products – Microwave Ovens ........................................................... 8-114 8.4.5.1 Base Case LCC Distributions ........................................................ 8-114 8.4.5.2 Standard-Level Distributions of LCC Impacts .............................. 8-114 8.4.5.3 Standard-Level PBP Distributions ................................................. 8-115 8.4.5.4 LCC and PBP Results .................................................................... 8-116 8.4.6 Commercial Clothes Washers .......................................................................... 8-118 8.4.6.1 Base Case LCC Distributions ........................................................ 8-118 8.4.6.2 Standard-Level Distributions of LCC Impacts .............................. 8-119 8.4.6.3 Standard-Level PBP Distributions ................................................. 8-119 8.4.6.4 LCC and PBP Results .................................................................... 8-120 8.5 REBUTTABLE P AYBACK PERI OD .................................................................. 8-124 8.5.1 Metric ............................................................................................................... 8-12 4 8.5.1.1 Dishwashers ................................................................................... 8-124 8.5.1.2 Dehumidifiers ................................................................................ 8-124 8.5.1.3 Cooking Products ........................................................................... 8-125 8.5.1.4 Commercial Clothes Washers ........................................................ 8-126 8.5.2 Inputs ................................................................................................................ 8-1 26 8.5.3 Results .............................................................................................................. 8-12 6 8.5.3.1 Dishwashers ................................................................................... 8-127 8.5.3.2 Dehumidifiers ................................................................................ 8-127 8.5.3.3 Cooking Products – Cooktops ....................................................... 8-128 8.5.3.4 Cooking Products – Ovens ............................................................. 8-128 8.5.3.5 Cooking Products – Microwave Ovens ......................................... 8-128 8.5.3.6 Commercial Clothes Washers ........................................................ 8-129 TOC-viiCHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS 9.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 9-1 9.2 SHIPMENTS MODE L METHODOL OGY .............................................................. 9-2 9.3 DATA INPUTS AND MO DEL CALI BRATION ..................................................... 9-4 9.3.1 Dishwashers ......................................................................................................... 9-5 9.3.1.1 Historical Shipments .......................................................................... 9-5 9.3.1.2 Markets and Model Calibration ......................................................... 9-6 9.3.1.3 Base Case Shipments ....................................................................... 9-10 9.3.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................................... 9-12 9.3.2.1 Historical Shipments ........................................................................ 9-12 9.3.2.2 Markets and Model Calibration ....................................................... 9-13 9.3.2.3 Base Case Shipments ....................................................................... 9-16 9.3.3 Cooktops and Ovens .......................................................................................... 9-17 9.3.3.1 Historical Shipments ........................................................................ 9-21 9.3.3.2 Markets and Model Calibration ....................................................... 9-22 9.3.3.3 Base Case Shipments ....................................................................... 9-27 9.3.4 Microwave Ovens .............................................................................................. 9-30 9.3.4.1 Historical Shipments ........................................................................ 9-30 9.3.4.2 Markets and Model Calibration ....................................................... 9-30 9.3.4.3 Base Case Shipments ....................................................................... 9-34 9.3.5 Commercial Clothes Washers ............................................................................ 9-35 9.3.5.1 Historical Shipments ........................................................................ 9-36 9.3.5.2 Markets and Model Calibration ....................................................... 9-38 9.3.5.3 Base Case Shipments ....................................................................... 9-43 9.4 PURCHASE PRICE, OPERATING COST , AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME IMPACTS ............................................................................................................... 9-45 9.5 AFFECTED STOCK .............................................................................................. 9-47 9.6 RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 9-48 9.6.1 Dishwashers ....................................................................................................... 9-48 9.6.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................................... 9-49 9.6.3 Cooktops and Ovens .......................................................................................... 9-50 9.6.4 Microwave Ovens .............................................................................................. 9-51 9.6.5 Commercial Clothes Washers ............................................................................ 9-52 CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 10.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 10-1 10.2 BASE CASE AND STANDARDS CASE FORECASTED EFFICI ENCIES .......... 10-2 10.2.1 Dishwashers ....................................................................................................... 10-3 10.2.2 Dehumidifiers .................................................................................................... 10-5 10.2.3 Cooking Products – Cooktops and Ovens ......................................................... 10-7 10.2.4 Cooking Products – Microwave Ovens ........................................................... 10-11 10.2.5 Commercial Clothes Washers .......................................................................... 10-11 TOC-viii10.3 NATIONAL ENER GY SAVI NGS ....................................................................... 10-12 10.3.1 NES Definition ................................................................................................. 10-12 10.3.2 NES Inputs ....................................................................................................... 10-14 10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit .......................................... 10-14 10.3.2.2 Shipments ....................................................................................... 10-20 10.3.2.3 Equipment Stock ............................................................................ 10-20 10.3.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption .......................................... 10-20 10.3.2.5 Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factors .................................... 10-21 10.4 NET PRESEN T VALUE ...................................................................................... 10-22 10.4.1 NPV Definition ................................................................................................ 10-22 10.4.2 NPV Inputs ....................................................................................................... 10-23 10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit .......................................................... 10-24 10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Co st Savings per Unit ....................................... 10-28 10.4.2.3 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ........................................... 10-29 10.4.2.4 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings ........................................... 10-29 10.4.2.5 Discount Factors ............................................................................ 10-30 10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs ................................................................... 10-30 10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings ............................................................... 10-30 10.5 NES AND NPV RESULTS .................................................................................. 10-31 10.5.1 NES and NPV Input Summary ........................................................................ 10-31 10.5.2 NES Results ..................................................................................................... 10-32 10.5.2.1 Dishwashers ................................................................................... 10-32 10.5.2.2 Dehumidifiers ................................................................................ 10-33 10.5.2.3 Cooking Products – Cooktops and Ovens ..................................... 10-34 10.5.2.4 Cooking Products – Microwave Ovens ......................................... 10-36 10.5.2.5 Commercial Clothes Washers ........................................................ 10-36 10.5.3 Annual Costs and Savings ............................................................................... 10-37 10.5.4 NPV Results ..................................................................................................... 10-38 10.5.4.1 Dishwashers ................................................................................... 10-38 10.5.4.2 Dehumidifiers ................................................................................ 10-39 10.5.4.3 Cooking Products – Cooktops and Ovens ..................................... 10-40 10.5.4.4 Cooking Products – Microwave Ovens ......................................... 10-41 10.5.4.5 Commercial Clothes Washers ........................................................ 10-42 CHAPTER 11. LIFE-CYCLE COST SUBGROUP ANALYSIS 11.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 11-1 11.2 PURCHASE PRIC E IMPACT S .............................................................................. 11-1 CHAPTER 12. PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS 12.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 12-1 12.2 METHO DOLOGY .................................................................................................. 12-1 TOC-ix12.2.1 Phase I: Industry Profile .................................................................................... 12-2 12.2.2 Phase II: Industry Cash-Flow Analysis and Interview Guide ........................... 12-2 12.2.2.1 Industry Cash-Flow Analysis ........................................................... 12-2 12.2.2.2 Interview Guide ............................................................................... 12-2 12.2.3 Phase III: S ub-Group Analysis ......................................................................... 12-3 12.2.3.1 Manufacturer Interviews .................................................................. 12-3 12.2.3.2 Revised Industry Cash-Flow Analysis ............................................. 12-3 12.2.3.3 Manufacturer Sub-Group Analysis .................................................. 12-4 12.2.3.4 Competitive Impact Assessment ...................................................... 12-4 12.2.3.5 Manufacturing Capacity Impact ...................................................... 12-4 12.2.3.6 Employme n t Impact ......................................................................... 12-4 12.2.3.7 Cumulative Regulatory Burden ....................................................... 12-5 12.3 PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURER IM PACT ANALYSIS RESULTS .............. 12-5 12.3.1 General Interview Structure ............................................................................... 12-5 12.3.1.1 Key Issues ........................................................................................ 12-6 12.3.1.2 Shipment Projections ....................................................................... 12-6 12.3.1.3 Product Mix ..................................................................................... 12-6 12.3.1.4 Profitability ...................................................................................... 12-7 12.3.1.5 Conversion Costs, Manufact uring Capacity and Employ ment Levels ............................................................................................... 12-7 12.3.1.6 Market Shares and Industry Consolidation ...................................... 12-8 12.3.1.7 Product Utility and Innovation ......................................................... 12-8 12.3.1.8 Cumulative Burden .......................................................................... 12-8 12.3.1.9 State Energy Conservation Standards .............................................. 12-9 12.3.1.10 International Energy Conservation Standards ................................. 12-9 12.3.1.11 Impact of Cumulative Burden on Small Manufacturers .................. 12-9 12.3.2 Dishwasher Preliminary MIA Results ............................................................. 12-10 12.3.2.1 Dishwasher Key Issues .................................................................. 12-10 12.3.2.2 Dishwasher Product Mix ................................................................ 12-10 12.3.2.3 Dishwasher Profitability ................................................................ 12-11 12.3.2.4 Dishwasher Conversion Costs ....................................................... 12-11 12.3.2.5 Dishwasher Manufacturing Cap acity and Em ployment Levels ..... 12-12 12.3.2.6 Dishwasher Market Share and Industry Consolidation ................. 12-13 12.3.2.7 Dishwasher Product Ut ility and Innovation ................................... 12-13 12.3.2.8 Dishwasher Cumulative Burden .................................................... 12-13 12.3.3 Dehumidifier Preliminary MIA Results ........................................................... 12-14 12.3.3.1 Dehumidifier Key Issues ................................................................ 12-14 12.3.3.2 Dehumidifier Product Mix ............................................................. 12-14 12.3.3.3 Dehumidifier Profitability .............................................................. 12-15 12.3.3.4 Dehumidifier Conversion Costs ..................................................... 12-15 12.3.3.5 Dehumidifier Manufacturing Ca pacity and Em ployment Levels .. 12-17 12.3.3.6 Dehumidifier Market Share and Industry Consolidation ............... 12-17 12.3.3.7 Dehumidifier Product Utility and Innovation ................................ 12-17 12.3.3.8 Dehumidifier Cumulative Burden .................................................. 12-18 12.3.4 Commercial Clothes Washer Preliminary MIA Results .................................. 12-18 TOC-x12.3.4.1 Commercial Clothes Washer Key Issues ....................................... 12-18 12.3.4.2 Commercial Clothes Washer Product Mix .................................... 12-18 12.3.4.3 Commercial Clothes Washer Customer Mix ................................. 12-19 12.3.4.4 Commercial Clothes Washer Profitability ..................................... 12-19 12.3.4.5 Commercial Clothes Washer Conversion Costs ............................ 12-19 12.3.4.6 Commercial Clothes Wash er Manufacturing Capacity and Employment Levels ....................................................................... 12-20 12.3.4.7 Commercial Clothes Washer Market Share and Industry Consolidation ................................................................................. 12-20 12.3.4.8 Commercial Clothes Washer Product Utility and Innovation ....... 12-21 12.3.4.9 Commercial Clothes Washer Cumulative Burden ......................... 12-22 12.3.4.10 Commercial Clothes Washer State Energy Conservation Standards ........................................................................................ 12-22 12.3.4.11 Commercial Clothes Washer International Energy Conservation Standards ................................................................. 12-23 12.3.4.12 Commercial Clothes Washer Im pact on Small Manufacturers ...... 12-24 CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 13.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 13-1 13.2 METHO DOLOGY .................................................................................................. 13-2 13.3 RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 13-3 CHAPTER 14. EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS 14.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 14-1 14.2 METHO DOLOGY .................................................................................................. 14-1 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERG Y CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL DISHWASHERS, DEHUMIDIFIERS, AND COOKING PRODUCTS, AND COMMERCIAL CLOTHES WASHERS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ EA-1 2.0 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................... EA-2 3.0 RESULTS .................................................................................................................... . EA-3 REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR PROPOSED ENERGY CONSERVATION ST ANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL DISHWASHERS, DEHUMIDIFIERS, AND COOKING PRODUCTS, AND COMMERCIAL CLOTHES WASHERS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... RA-1 TOC-xi2.0 METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................... RA-1 APPENDIX 5A. AHAM DATA SUBMITTAL 5A.1 INTRODUC TI ON ................................................................................................. 5A-1 5A.2 AHAM DISHWASHER DATA SUBMI TTAL ..................................................... 5A-1 5A.2.1 AHAM Dishwasher Shipments and Increm ental Cost Data............................. 5A-1 5A.2.2 AHAM Narrative on Dishwasher Standby Energy Consu mption .................... 5A-3 5A.3 AHAM DEHUMIDIFIER DATA SUBMIT TAL ................................................... 5A-5 5A.4 AHAM COMMERCIAL CLOTHES WASHER DATA SUBMITTAL ................. 5A-9 APPENDIX 5B. MANUFACT URER INTERVIEW GUIDES 5B.1 INTRODUC TI ON ................................................................................................. 5B-1 5B.2 DISHWASHER MANUFACTUR ER INTERVIEW GUIDE................................. 5B-1 5B.3 DEHUMIDIFIER MANUFACT URER INTERVIEW GUIDE .............................. 5B-5 5B.4 COMMERCIAL CLOTHES WASH ER MANUFACTURER INTERVIEW GUIDE .................................................................................................................. 5B-8 APPENDIX 5C. THE LOW-VOLUME MANUFACTURER 5C.1 INTRODUC TI ON ................................................................................................. 5C-1 5C.2 SEGMENT RE VENUES ....................................................................................... 5C-1 5C.3 SHIPMENT VOLUMES ....................................................................................... 5C-4APPENDIX 6A. COOKTOPS AND OVENS: DETERMINATION OF ENERGYUSING COMPONENTS 6A.1 INTRODUC TI ON ................................................................................................. 6A-1 6A.2 METHODOLOGY FOR DIS AGGREGATING ELECTRIC RANGE ANNUAL ENERGY CONS UM PTION................................................................. 6A-1 6A.3 METHODOLOGY FOR ESTA BLISHING GAS COOKING ENERGYUSING COMPONENTS ....................................................................................... 6A-4 APPENDIX 8A. USER INSTRUCTIONS F OR LCC AND PBP SPREADSHEETS 8A.1 INTRODUC TI ON ................................................................................................. 8A-1 8A.1.1 Dishwashers ...................................................................................................... 8A-1 8A.1.2 Dehumidifiers ................................................................................................... 8A-2 8A.1.3 Cooking Products.............................................................................................. 8A-3 8A.1.3.1 Cooktops ......................................................................................... 8A-3 8A.1.3.2 Ovens .............................................................................................. 8A-3 TOC-xii8A.1.3.3 Microwave Ovens ........................................................................... 8A-4 8A.1.4 Commercial Clothes Washers........................................................................... 8A-5 8A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS ...................................................................................... 8A-6 APPENDIX 8B. UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY 8B.1 INTRODUC TI ON ................................................................................................. 8B-1 8B.2 UNCERTAI NTY ................................................................................................... 8B-1 8B.3 VARIABIL ITY...................................................................................................... 8B-1 8B.4 APPROACHES TO UNCERTAI NTY AND VARIABILITY ............................... 8B-2 8B.5 PROBABILITY ANALYSIS AND TH E USE OF CRYSTAL BALL ................... 8B-2 APPENDIX 8C. HOUSEHOLD DISCOUNT RATE DISTRIBUTIONS 8C.1 INTRODUC TI ON ................................................................................................. 8C-1 8C.2 DISTRIBUTION OF REAL INTEREST RATES FOR CONSUMER DEBT CLASSES INCLUDING MORTGAGES .............................................................. 8C-1 8C.3 DISTRIBUTION OF REAL INTEREST RA TES FOR FINANCIAL ASSETS .... 8C-2 APPENDIX 9A. RELATIVE PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND FOR APPLIANCES 9A.1 INTRODUC TI ON ................................................................................................. 9A-1 9A.2 LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................... 9A-1 9A.2.1 Price .................................................................................................................. 9 A-1 9A.2.2 Income............................................................................................................... 9A- 1 9A.2.3 Appliance Efficiency and Discount Rates ........................................................ 9A-2 9A.3 VARIABLES DESCRIBING TH E M ARKET FOR REFRIGERATORS, CLOTHES WASHERS, AND DISHWASHERS................................................... 9A-2 9A.3.4 Physical Household/Appliance Variables......................................................... 9A-3 9A.3.5 Economic variables........................................................................................... 9A-3 9A.4 REGRESSION ANAL YSIS OF VARIABLES AFFECTING APPLIANCE SHIPMENTS ......................................................................................................... 9A-4 9A.4.1 Broad Trends..................................................................................................... 9A-5 9A.4.2 Model Specification .......................................................................................... 9A-7 9A.4.3 Model Discussion.............................................................................................. 9A-8 9A.4.4 Analysis Results................................................................................................ 9A-8 9A.4.4.1 Individual Appliance Model ........................................................... 9A-8 9A.4.4.2 Co mbined Appliance Model ........................................................... 9A-9 9A.4.5 Additional Regression Speci fications and Results ......................................... 9A-10 9A.4.5.1 Lower Consumer Discount Rate................................................... 9A-10 9A.4.5.2 Disaggregated Variables ............................................................... 9A-10 9A.5 LONG RUN IMPACTS ....................................................................................... 9A-11 TOC-xiii9A.6 SUMMAR Y......................................................................................................... 9A-12 9A.7 DATA USED IN THE ANALYSIS ..................................................................... 9A-13 APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA SPREADSHEETS 10A.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 10A-1 10A.1.1 Dishwashers .............................................................................................. 10A-1 10A.1.2 Dehumidifiers ........................................................................................... 10A-2 10A.1.3 Cooking Products...................................................................................... 10A-3 10A.1.3.1 Cooktops and Ovens ..................................................................... 10A-3 10A.1.3.2 Microwave Ovens ......................................................................... 10A-5 10A.1.4 Commercial Clothes Washers................................................................... 10A-6 10A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS .................................................................................... 10A-7 APPENDIX 10B. NATIONAL EQUIPMENT AND OPERATING COSTS 10B.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 10B-1 10B.2 RESULTS ............................................................................................................ 10B-2 10B.2.1 Dishwashers .............................................................................................. 10B-2 10B.2.2 Dehumidifiers ........................................................................................... 10B-4 10B.2.3 Cooking Products...................................................................................... 10B-7 10B.2.3.1 Cooktops ....................................................................................... 10B-7 10B.2.3.2 Ovens ............................................................................................ 10B-9 10B.2.3.3 Microwave Ovens ....................................................................... 10B-14 10B.2.4 Commercial Clothes Washers................................................................. 10B-15

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