## Re siden tial Biomass Combus tion NSPS: Cos t Impact Analy sis Appr oach

July 26, 2010

## Ex ample Wood St ov e NSPS Timeline

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6/11 Propose Estimated 111,300 to be shipped 85% of units = WA std Up to 15% of units/models begin retooling 7/12 Final

Manufactured units must meet WA std 85% of units = 2012 std — no impact X1% of models revised to = 2012 std, X2% cont. retooling Y% of models discontinued, Z% of companies stop producing 1/13

Last date to sell 1988 NPSP units X3% of models retooling to meet 2014 std 7/14

All manufactured models/units meet 2014 std Y1% of models discontinued, Z2% of companies stop producing 7/15

Last date to sell 2012 units 7/16 – 7/17

5 th year impact in 7/17

# Ov er all Cos t Model
• Use model unit appr oach (low , a ve ra ge and high cos t units) to determine impacts on diffe re ntprice poin ts • Determine cost t o manufactur er/model to develop and certify new model line x number of models certified • Determine cost t o manufactur er/unit to make a certified unit x number of units made • Determine cost t o consumer to buy a new certified unit 3

## Fr ees ta nding Wood Hea te r Cos t Model
• Iden tify the number of companies and the associat ed models that would ha ve t o make changes to meet the 2012/2014 sta ndar ds • Develop model lines to use in the cos t model • Es timate cos ts to certify model lines • Es timate cos ts of new models/units • Determine cost of r evised NSPS (cos t t o dev elop, pr oduce, and certify new units) re lative to e xis ting NSPS. 4

## Fr ees ta nding Wood Hea te r Cos t

Model: Cos t Inputs • Number of companies that ha ve models that do not meet sta ndar ds in 2012/2014 and number of models affect ed • Number of models/compan y and number of stove s/model • Pe rc en ta ge of companies/models that will re design/r etool

– Fa ctors that would influence decision to dr op a model line

– Time needed to make emissions r eductions changes vs. other model line changes • Cos t t o r edesign/r etool to meet new emission limit(s)/model

– Likely t echnologies/appr oaches 5

## Fr ees ta nding Wood Hea te r Cos t Model: Cos t Inputs (c on t.) • Cos ts to t es t s toves (NSPS vs. safety)/model • Production cos t vs. wholesale cos t vs. re ta il cos t/stove • Cos t incr eases an ticipated to pr oduce stove t o meet the new emission limit(s)/stove • An y changes in wa rran ty cos ts/durability an ticipated

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## Fr ees ta nding Wood Hea te r Cos t Model: Cos t Inputs (c on t.) • Likelihood and amoun t of price incr ease t o re ta iler/consumer • Changes in ins ta llation cos ts • Changes in operating cos ts

– Mor e efficient heating (less wo od burned)?

– Maintenance cos ts (r eplacement parts)

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# Fir eplace Insert Cos t Model
• Same general appr oach to cos t impacts as wood stove s • Dis tinguish between pellet (wood and other biomass) and cor dwood units • Iden tify diffe re nces in t echnology/cons truction that migh t lead t o differ en t magnitude of cos t impacts

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# Pe llet St ov e Cos t Model
• Same general appr oach to wood s toves • Iden tify models that ar e not certified but would meet 2012/2014 emission limits • Iden tify models that could not meet emission limits and es timate per cen ta ge that would s to p pr oduction/shut down • Determine if cos ts impacts differ for wood pellets vs. other pellet types

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# Hy dr onic Hea te r Cos t Model
• Similar appr oach to wood s toves • Consider impact of v olun ta ry pr ogram and e xis ting state r egulations to determine number of models affect ed • Re view cos ts to develop h yd ro nic heaters that satisfy the v olun ta ry pr ogram crit eria • Include cos t of heat s to ra ge? • Collect information on Eur opean units that would meet sta ndar d 10

# Fir eplace Cos t Model

• Similar appr oach to wood stoves for fact ory built units • Dis tinguish between low - mass fir eplaces and masonry fir eplaces • Consider impact of v oluntary pr ogr am and e xis ting state re gulations to determine number of models affect ed • Re view costs to develop fir eplaces that satisfy the v oluntary pr ogr am crit eria • Additional impacts on ins ta ller s (masons) • Consider impact on cos t and performance of consumer add ons (gr ate s, catalyst re tr ofit)?
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# Coal St ov e/Cook St ov e Cos t Model
• Limited dat a collected on siz e of market, number of models, cos ts • Initiate dat a g athering • An ticipate that if an accept able de finition of a true cook s tove is implemen te d, the only impact ed units would be those ro om heaters claiming t o also be cook s toves and thus exe mpt fr om the NSPS

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# Masonry Hea te r Cos t Model
• Less than 1,000 units sold per y ear • Consider impact of design s ta ndar d vs. certification

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## Boilers and F or ced Air Furnace Cos t

Model • Virtually no dat a collected on siz e of market, number of models, cos ts • Initiate dat a g athering

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# Other Cos t Impacts
• Cos ts to manufactur ers to implemen t an ISO certification pr ocess • Cos ts to labs t o become ISO certified • Cos ts to pellet fuel manufactur ers to implemen t pellet fuel s ta ndar ds if not implemen te d independen tly of NSPS

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