1 |EnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyeere.energy.govTestProceduresNoticeofProposedRulemakingforCeilingFansEnergyConservationStandardsPreliminaryAnalysisforCeilingFansNovember19,2014LucydeButtsDepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgramTP: EERE‐2013‐BT‐TP‐0050CF2013TP0050@ee.doe.govECS: EERE‐2012‐BT‐STD‐0045CeilingFan2012STD0045@ee.doe.gov2Welcome•Introductions(aroundtheroom)•RoleoftheFacilitator•GroundRules-Speakoneatatime.-Sayyournamefortherecord– therewillbeacompletetranscriptofthismeeting.-Beconcise– sharethe‘air‐time.’-Keepthefocushere– cellphonesonsilent;limitsidebarconversations.-Webinarparticipantsturnphoneonmute;“raiseyourhand”toberecognizedtospeak.•HousekeepingItems•AgendaReview•OpeningRemarks3PublicMeetingAgenda:Morning9:00– 9:10amWelcome andIntroductionsCeilingFanProposedTestProcedures9:10– 9:30amOpeningStatements;TPRegulatoryHistory;RulemakingOverview9:30– 10:00amCoveredProducts:ScopeandDefinitions10:00– 10:30amExistingTestProcedures;ProposedMetric10:30– 10:40amBreak10:40– 11:50amProposedCeilingFanTestProcedures11:50am– 12:00pmClosingRemarks12:00– 1:00pmLunch4PublicMeetingAgenda:AfternoonCeilingFanEnergyConservationStandardsPreliminaryAnalysis1:00– 1:20pmOpeningStatements;ECSRegulatoryHistory;RulemakingOverview1:20– 1:30pmScope;Market&TechnologyAssessment1:30– 1:45pmScreeningAnalysis1:45– 2:15pmEngineeringAnalyses2:15– 2:25pmBreak2:25– 2:55pmMarkups;EnergyUse;LifeCycleCostAnalyses2:55– 3:30pmShipments;NationalImpactAnalyses3:30– 3:40pmPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis3:40– 3:50pmNOPRAnalyses3:50– 4:00pmClosingRemarksandAdjourn5ListeningviatheWebcast• DOEisbroadcastingthismeetingliveovertheInternet.• DOEisprovidingthewebcasttoaccommodatestakeholdersthatareunabletoattendthepublicmeetinginperson.• Thewebbroadcastallowsstakeholderstolisteninandviewtheslides.• Allstakeholdersareencouragedtosubmitwrittencommentsafterthepublicmeeting.6ProposedCeilingFan(CF)TestProcedures7IssueforDiscussionIssueboxnumberingcorrespondstothelistofissuespublishedattheendoftheTestProcedureNOPR,availableatregulations.gov,underdocketnumber:EERE‐2013‐BT‐TP‐0050,athttp://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE‐2013‐BT‐TP‐0050ThedeadlineforsubmittingcommentsontheTestProcedureNOPRis:December31,2014IssueBox:DOEwelcomescomments,data,andinformationconcerningtheproposedCFstestprocedures.IssuesthatcorrespondtothoseraisedinDOE’spublishedmaterialwillbenumberedinaccordancewiththatmaterial.Whetherinvitedbyanissueboxornot,commentsarewelcomeonanypartofDOE’sanalysis.8HowtoSubmitWrittenComments•Inallcorrespondence,pleaserefertotheCFtestprocedurerulemakingby:– TestProcedureforCeilingFans;– DocketNumberEERE‐2013‐BT‐TP‐0050;and– RegulatoryIdentificationNumber(RIN)1904‐AD10.•Email:CF2013TP0050@ee.doe.govPostal:Courier:Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgram,MailstopEE‐5B1000IndependenceAvenue,SWWashington,DC20585‐0121Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgram,Suite600950L’EnfantPlaza,SWWashington,DC20024Tel:202586‐2945TestProcedureNOPRCommentPeriodcloses:December31,2014,11:59PMEDT9OpeningRemarksMeetingparticipantsareinvitedtoprovideopeningremarksorstatementsatthistime.10CFsTPRulemakingScheduleMilestone DateTestProcedureNOPRpublishedBeginningof75‐daycommentperiodOctober17,2014Endof75‐daycommentperiod December31,2014ProjecteddateofFinalRuleforCFTP Q32015TestProcedureeffectivedate(projected)forCFsQ320152015 201611RegulatoryHistory– TestProcedure•TitleIIIoftheEnergyPolicyandConservationAct(EPCA)establishesthe“EnergyConservationProgramforConsumerProductsOtherThanAutomobiles,”whichincludesCFs.•TheEnergyPolicyActof2005(EPAct)amendedEPCAandestablishedenergyconservationstandardsforCFs,aswellasrequirementsfortheCFtestprocedures.•EPAct2005requiredtheCFtestprocedurebebasedonthe“EnergyStarTestingFacilityGuidanceManual:BuildingaTestingFacilityandPerformingtheSolidStateTestMethodforENERGYSTARQualifiedCeilingFans,”Version1.1.•OnDecember8,2006,DOEpublishedafinalruleintheFederalRegisterfortestproceduresforCFs.71FR71340.•DOEisconductingthesetestprocedurerulemakingsforCFspursuantto42U.S.C.6295(r).12RegulatoryHistory– TestProcedure•TheEnergyIndependenceandSecurityActof2007(EISA)setforthrequirementsfortestprocedures:•Atleastonceevery7yearsDOEmustconductanevaluationofallcoveredproductsandeitheramendthetestproceduresorpublishadeterminationintheFederalRegisternottoamendthem.•Fortestproceduresofcoveredproductsthatdonotfullyaccountforstandby‐modeandoff‐modeenergyconsumption,EISA2007directsDOEtoamenditstestprocedurestoaccountforstandby‐modeandoff‐modeenergyconsumption,unlessitistechnicallyinfeasibletodoso.•TheexistingtestproceduresforCFsarespecifiedinAppendixUtoSubpartBofpart430ofTitle10oftheCodeofFederalRegulations(CFR).13CFTestProcedureNOPRPresentationOverviewProposed Metric3Proposed Modifications to Current Test Procedure4Closing Remarks8Covered Products1Proposed Additional Test Methods5Effective Date & Compliance Date; Sampling Plan6Existing Test Procedure2Review under the Regulatory Flexibility Act714CoveredProducts:ScopeandApplicability•ThetestproceduresapplytoCFsthatmeetthestatutorydefinition,whereEPCAdefinesaCFas“anon‐portabledevicethatissuspendedfromaceilingforcirculatingairviatherotationoffanblades.”(42USC§6291)•DOEisproposingtoreinterpretthestatutorydefinitionofaCFtoincorporatehuggerCFs.•DOEproposestoclarifythatmulti‐mountCFsandhigh‐volumeCFsmeetthestatutorydefinitionofaCF.•Thecurrentandproposedtestprocedures•donotapplytocentrifugalfans.•donotapplytoaircirculators(oraircirculatingfanheads)thataretypicallymountedonapedestalbutalsoincludewall,ceiling,orI‐beammountingbrackets.15CoveredProducts:ScopeandApplicabilityIssue1:ReinterpretationofStatutoryDefinitionofCFDOEisreinterpretingthestatutorydefinitionofaCFtoincludehuggerCFsandclarifyingthatthedefinitionincludesmulti‐mountCFs.DOEnotesthatCFLKsattachedtohuggerCFswouldbecomecoveredCFLKsunderthisreinterpretation.DOEinvitescommentonthisreinterpretationandclarification.Issue2:InclusionofHigh‐VolumeCFsDOEisalsoclarifyingthathigh‐volumeCFsareconsideredCFsandcoveredunderthisrulemaking.DOEinvitescommentonthisclarification.Issue3:ExclusionofCentrifugalFansfromTestProcedureDOEisproposinginterpretingcentrifugalfanstofalloutsideofthescopeofthisrulemaking.DOEinvitescommentonthisinterpretation.16CoveredProducts:CFCategories•DOEproposestodefinetwoCFcategoriesthatwillbetestedindifferentways:low‐volumeCFsandhigh‐volumeCFs.Alow‐volumeCFmustbe lessthanorequalto7feetindiameter.Additionally,itmusthaveabladethicknessgreaterthanorequalto3.2mmattheedgeandamaximumtipspeedlessthanorequaltothelimitinTable1ORprovideamaximumairflowvolumelessthan5,000CFM.Ahigh‐volumeCFiseithergreaterthan7feetindiameter,ORhasabladethicknessoflessthan3.2mmattheedgeoramaximumtipspeedthatexceedsthethresholdinTable1whileprovidingamaximumairflowvolumegreaterthan5,000CFM.Table1isbasedontheUnderwritersLaboratory(UL)CFsafetystandard(ULStandard507‐1999,“ULStandardforSafetyforElectricFans”).AirflowDirectionThickness(t)ofedgesofblades Maximumspeedattipofbladesmm inch m/s feetperminuteDownward‐Only 4.8>t≥3.2 (3/16>t≥1/8) 16.3 (3200)Downward‐Only t≥4.8(t≥3/16)20.3 (4000)Reversible 4.8>t≥3.2 (3/16>t≥1/8) 12.2 (2400)Reversible t≥4.8(t≥3/16)16.3 (3200)Table1:Low‐VolumeCFs,7FeetorLessinDiameter17CoveredProducts:CFCategoriesTheclassificationisbasedon:1)Reversibleorforward‐only2)Bladespan,3)Maxairflowvolume,4)Bladeedgethickness,and5)Maxtipspeed18CoveredProducts:ProposedDefinitions•DOEproposestodefinethreeotherCFcategories:•Hugger:“Aceilingfanwherethelowestpointonthefanbladesisnomorethanteninchesfromtheceiling.”•Standard: “Aceilingfanwherethelowestpointonthefanbladesismorethanteninchesfromtheceiling.”•Multi‐mount: “Aceilingfanthatcanbemountedinboththestandardandhuggerceilingfanconfigurations.”•NOTE:TomeetDOE’sdefinitionofamulti‐mountCF,afanmustbecapableofbeingmountedinconfigurationsthatmeetbothDOE’sdefinitionofahuggerandastandardCF.ACFthatcanbemountedatmorethanoneheightdoesnotnecessarilyqualifyasamulti‐mountCF.Issue4:ProposedDefinitionsDOEinvitescommentontheproposeddefinitionsforlow‐volumeCFs,high‐volumeCFs,huggerCFs,standardCFs,andmulti‐mountCFs.19CFTestProcedureNOPRPresentationOverviewProposed Metric3Proposed Modifications to Current Test Procedure4Closing Remarks8Covered Products1Proposed Additional Test Methods5Effective Date & Compliance Date; Sampling Plan6Existing Test Procedure2Review under the Regulatory Flexibility Act720DOE’sCurrentTestProcedure•DOE'stestprocedureforCFsiscodifiedinAppendixUtosubpartBofpart430ofTitle10oftheCFR.•Thecurrenttestprocedurereferencesthe“ENERGYSTARTestingFacilityGuidanceManual:BuildingaTestingFacilityandPerformingtheSolidStateTestMethodforENERGYSTARQualifiedCeilingFans,”version1.1.•TheENERGYSTARtestmethodreferencedinDOE’stestprocedureisnolongercurrent.21CFTestProcedureNOPRPresentationOverviewProposed Metric3Proposed Modifications to Current Test Procedure4Closing Remarks8Covered Products1Proposed Additional Test Methods5Effective Date & Compliance Date; Sampling Plan6Existing Test Procedure2Review under the Regulatory Flexibility Act722ProposedMetric•DOEproposestoapplyasinglemetricbasedonairflowefficiencytoallCFs.•Forlow‐volumeCFs,DOEisproposingtouseaweightedaverageoftheairflowandpowerconsumptionathighandlowfanspeeds.•Forhigh‐volumeCFs,DOEisproposingtousetheairflowandpowerconsumptionathighfanspeedonly.23ProposedMetric•DOEproposestoapplyasinglemetricbasedonairflowefficiencytoallCFs.•ForallCFswithstandbyfunctionality(includingCFswithalightkit),DOEisproposingtoincorporatestandbypowerconsumptionintotheoverallairflowefficiencymetric.•DOEisnotproposingtoincludeoff‐modepowerconsumptioninthemetric,becauseDOE believes that CFs do not consume power in off mode.EPCAdefines“standbymode”astheconditioninwhichanenergy‐usingproduct:1. isconnectedtoamainpowersource,and2. offersoneormoreofthefollowinguser‐orientedorprotectivefunctions:i. Tofacilitatetheactivationordeactivationofotherfunctions(includingactivemode)byremoteswitch(includingremotecontrol),internalsensor,ortimer.ii. Continuousfunctions,includinginformationorstatusdisplays(includingclocks),orsensor‐basedfunctions.(42U.S.C.6295(gg)(1)(A)(iii))“Offmode”istheconditioninwhichtheCFisconnectedtoamainpowersourceandisnotprovidinganystandbyoractivemodefunction.(42U.S.C.6295(gg)(1)(A)(ii))24ProposedMetric:OperatingHours•Forlow‐volumeCFs,DOEproposestousethedailynational‐averagehoursofoperationreportedintheLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryreporttitled“CeilingFanandCeilingFanLightKitUseintheU.S.”asthebasisforweightingenergyconsumptionathighandlowspeed.•Forhigh‐volumeCFs,DOEestimatedoperatinghoursbasedonfeedbackfrommanufacturersDailyOperatingHours forLow‐VolumeCFsSetting/Speed NoStandby WithStandbyHighSpeed 4.2 4.2LowSpeed 2.2 2.2StandbyMode 0.0 17.6OffMode 17.6 0.0DailyOperatingHoursforHigh‐VolumeCFsSetting/SpeedNoStandby WithStandbyActiveMode 12.0 12.0StandbyMode 0.0 12.0OffMode 12.0 0.025ProposedMetric:EfficiencyEquation•Tocalculatetheefficiencyoflow‐volumeCFs,DOEproposestousethefollowingequation:ܨܥ	ܧ݂݂݅ܿ݅݁݊ܿݕ ൌ∑ܯܨܥ௜ൈ ܱܪ௜௜ୀு,௅ሺܹௌ௕ൈ ܱܪௌ௕ሻ ൅∑ܹ௜ൈ ܱܪ௜௜ୀு,௅•Tocalculatetheefficiencyofhigh‐volumeCFs,DOEproposestousethefollowingequation:ൌ ݕ݂݂݅ܿ݅݁݊ܿܧ	ܨܥܯܨܥுܪܱ ൈ஺ሺܹௌ௕ൈ ܱܪௌ௕ሻ ൅ ሺܹுൈ ܱܪ஺ሻLow‐VolumeCFEquationVariablesCFMi=airflowatagivenspeedOHi=operatinghoursatagivenspeedWi=powerconsumptionatagivenspeedH=highspeedL=lowspeedOHSb=operatinghoursinstandbymodeWSb=powerconsumptioninstandbymodeHigh‐VolumeCFEquationVariablesCFMH=airflowathighspeedOHA=operatinghoursinactivemodeWH=powerconsumptionathighspeedOHSb=operatinghoursinstandbymodeWSb=powerconsumptioninstandbymode26ProposedMetricIssue5:StandbyPowerConsumptionDOEseekscommentonitsproposedapproachtoincorporatestandbypowerconsumptionintotheCFefficiencymetric.Issue6:AssignmentofStandbyPowerConsumptionDOEseekscommentonitsproposedapproachtoassignallstandbypowerconsumptionforaremotereceiverthatcontrolsbothaCFandlightkittotheCF.Issue7:OperatingHoursDOEseekscommentonitsproposedoperatinghoursforcalculatingCFefficiencyforlow‐volumeCFs.Issue8:OperatingHoursforHigh‐VolumeCFsDOEseekscommentandanyavailabledataonoperatinghoursforhigh‐volumeCFs.27CFTestProcedureNOPRPresentationOverviewProposed Metric3Proposed Modifications to Current Test Procedure4Closing Remarks8Covered Products1Proposed Additional Test Methods5Effective Date & Compliance Date; Sampling Plan6Existing Test Procedure2Review under the Regulatory Flexibility Act728ProposedModificationstoCurrentTestProcedure•DOEproposestomodifythecurrenttestprocedureforCFstoaddressthefollowingissues:1. toclarifythatlow‐volumeCFsshouldbetestedathighandlowspeeds,2. toeliminatetherequirementtouseatestcylinder,3. toaddafalseceilingtotheexperimentalsetupforlow‐volumeCFs,4. toclarifythedistancebetweentheCFbladesandtheairvelocitysensors,5. toclarifytheappropriatefanconfigurationduringtestingforlow‐volumeCFs,6. toclarifythetestmethodforCFswithheaters,and7. torevisetheallowabletoleranceforairvelocitysensorsusedduringtesting.291.Low‐VolumeCFTestingatHighandLowSpeeds•DOEproposestorequiretestingathighandlowfanspeedsforlow‐volumeCFs.•ThecurrentDOEtestprocedureallowsfortestingatallavailablefanspeeds,butdoesnotspecifyhowmanyspeedsshouldbetested.•Considerations:•Testingatasinglespeedmaylimitrepresentativeness.•Testingatthreespeedsmayintroduceambiguityregardingthedefinitionofmediumspeedforfanswithmorethanthreesettings;additionally,testingatthreespeedsincursmoretestburdenthantestingattwospeeds.Issue9:Low‐VolumeCFTestingatHighandLowSpeedsDOEseekscommentonitsproposedapproachtotestathighandlowspeedforlow‐volumeCFs.302.EliminationofTestCylinder•DOEproposestoeliminatetherequirementtotestwithatestcylinder.•Considerations:•Testingwithoutacylinderinstalledmorecloselysimulatesinstalledusageconditions.•DOEtestresultsindicatethatmeasuringairflowwithoutatestcylindermaybemoreaccurate.•Eliminatingthetestcylinderrequirementwill:odecreasetestburdenformanufacturerswantingtointroducenewfansizes,oreducepotentialmarketdistortionsfavoringCFssizedaccordingtocurrently‐availablecylinders,andomorecloselyharmonizethelow‐volumeandhigh‐volumeCFtestprocedures.Diagram from ENERGYSTAR’s guidance manual313.AdditionofFalseCeiling•DOEproposestotestall low‐volumeCFswiththeadditionofafalseceilingdirectlyabovetheCF.•Considerations:•Testingwithafalseceilinginplacemorecloselysimulatesinstalledusageconditions.•Testingbothstandardandhugger‐typeCFswithafalseceilinginplaceallowsconsumerstheabilitytomake“apples‐to‐apples”comparisonsbetweenalllow‐volumeCFs.•Requiringafalseceilingwillintroduceaone‐time(i.e.,notrecurring)financialburdenontestingfacilities.Issue11:AdditionofFalseCeilingDOEseekscommentonitsproposaltoaddafalseceilingtotheexperimentalsetupforalllow‐volumeCFtesting.324.DistanceBetweenCFBladesandSensors•DOEproposestodefinetheverticalpositionofaCFwithrespecttothedistancebetweenthelowestpointontheCFbladesandtheheadsoftheairvelocitysensors(applicabletoalllow‐volumeCFs).•Considerations:•Thetestset‐upforthecurrentDOEtestprocedureassumesthatCFbladesarereasonablyflat;therefore,theprocedurespecifiesatestsetupdistancebasedonthemiddleofthefanbladetips.•Itmaybeunclearastohowthe“middleofbladetip”measurementsshouldbemadeforfanshavingnon‐flatbladesorunusualshapes.LevelofsensorheadsDiagram adapted from ENERGYSTAR’s guidance manual335.Low‐VolumeCFTestConfiguration•DOEproposestoclarifythatifthereismorethanonemountingoptionspecifiedbythemanufacturerthatwouldmeetthedefinitionofastandardlow‐volumeCF,thatCFshouldbetestedintheconfigurationthatminimizesthedistancebetweentheceilingandthelowestpartofthefanblades.Asimilarclarificationisproposedforhuggerfans.•Considerations:•DOEresearchindicatesthatanumberoflow‐volumeCFscanbemountedatmorethanoneheightwhilestillbeingclassifiedaseitherastandardorhuggerCF.•IncontrasttotherequirementsformeetingDOE’sdefinitionofamulti‐mountfan,thesefansonlyneedtobetestedinasingleconfiguration(asdescribedabove).•Testingallstandardandhuggerlow‐volumeCFsinthismannerwillprovideaconsistentbasisforcomparison.345.Low‐VolumeCFTestConfigurationIssue12:Low‐VolumeCFInstallationConfigurationsDOEseekscommentanddataonhowCFswithmorethanonemountingoptionthatwouldmeetthedefinitionofastandardCFareconfiguredinthefield.DOEalsoseekscommentanddataonhowhuggerCFswithmorethanonemountingoptionareconfiguredinthefield.356.CFswithHeaters•DOEproposestoclarifythatduringtesting,anyheaterpackagedwithaCFshouldbeinstalled,incaseitmightaffectairflow,buttheheatershouldbeswitchedoff.367.AllowableToleranceforAirVelocitySensors•DOEproposestochangethesensortolerancesfromthecurrenttestprocedurevalueof1%to5%.•Considerations:•ThecurrentDOEtestprocedureincorporatesbyreferenceENERGYSTARguidancemanualv1.1,whichrequiresairspeedsensorswithanaccuracyof±1%orbetter.•ENERGYSTARguidancemanualv1.2,however,requiresairspeedsensorswithanaccuracyofonly±5%orbetter.•Fromtesting,DOEconcludedthatthevariationinmeasuredairspeedwasnotsignificantlyaffectedbydecreasingtheaccuracyoftheairvelocitysensorsfrom±1%to±5%.37CFTestProcedureNOPRPresentationOverviewProposed Metric3Proposed Modifications to Current Test Procedure4Closing Remarks8Covered Products1Proposed Additional Test Methods5Effective Date & Compliance Date; Sampling Plan6Existing Test Procedure2Review under the Regulatory Flexibility Act738ProposedAdditionalTestMethods•DOEproposestoaddthefollowingtestmethodstotheCFtestprocedure:1. atestmethodforlow‐volumemulti‐mountCFs,2. atestmethodformulti‐headedCFs,3. atestmethodforCFsforwhichtheairflowisnotdirectedvertically,4. atestmethodforhigh‐volumeCFs,and5. atestmethodforpowerconsumptioninstandbymode.391.TestMethodforLow‐VolumeMulti‐MountCFs•DOEproposestotestlow‐volume,multi‐mountCFsintwoconfigurations:1. Inthestandardconfigurationthatminimizesthedistancebetweentheceilingandthelowestpartofthefanblades,and2. Inthehuggerconfigurationthatminimizesthedistancebetweentheceilingandthelowestpartofthefanblades.•Considerations:•Multi‐mountCFscanbeinstalledinbothconfigurations.Itisnotknownaprioriinwhichconfigurationamulti‐mountfanwillbeinstalled.Issue14:Low‐VolumeMulti‐MountCFTestingDOEseekscommentonwhethermanufacturersshouldberequiredtotestmulti‐mountCFsinthestandardconfiguration,huggerconfiguration,bothconfigurations,orallconfigurationsforwhichtheyarecapableofbeinginstalled.40•DOEproposestomeasureairflowofmulti‐headedCFsbytestingasinglefanhead(i.e.,nobladesfromotherheadsrotating),withthefanheadinthesamepositionaswhenafanwithasingleheadistested,suchthatitisdirectlyoversensor1(i.e.,thecentersensor).•Thesinglefanhead’smeasuredairflowisthenmultipliedbytheCF’stotalnumberoffanheadstogettotalairflowforamulti‐headfan.•Forbelt‐drivenmulti‐headfans,DOEproposestomeasureairflowbyonlyinstallingasinglefanhead.•Formulti‐headfanswithoutindividualfanheadcontrol(i.e.,allheadsmustbeonoroffconcurrently),DOEproposestomeasureairflowofasinglefanheadbynotinstallingthefanbladesontheremainingfanheads.2.TestMethodforMulti‐HeadedCFs412.TestMethodforMulti‐HeadedCFs•DOEproposestomeasurepowerconsumptionofmulti‐headedCFsatagivenspeedwithallCFheadsturnedon.•Considerations:•DOEtestingofasinglemulti‐headfanwithidenticalfanheadsshowedthatthepowerconsumptionforoneindividualfanheadwas75%ofthepowerconsumptionofbothfanheadsoperatingsimultaneously.•Measuringthepowerconsumptionofonefanheadandmultiplyingbythenumberoffanheadscouldsignificantlyoverestimatethepowerconsumptionofbothfanheadsoperatingsimultaneously.42•DOEproposestoclarifythattheCFheadshouldbeadjustedsuchthattheairflowisasverticalaspossiblepriortotesting.•IfaCFcannotachieveverticalairflow,DOEproposestoorienttheCFsuchthatanyremainingtiltisalignedalongoneofthefoursensoraxes.Airvelocityshouldonlybemeasuredalongthataxisandtheaxisoriented180degreeswithrespecttothataxis.•Airflowshouldbecalculatedbasedonthecontinuoussetofsensorswiththelargestairvelocitymeasurements.3.TestMethodforCFswithNon‐VerticalAirflowExampleAirVelocityPatternforAirflowNotDirectlyDownward434.TestMethodforHigh‐VolumeCFs•DOEproposestocalculatehigh‐volumeCFefficiencybasedonairflowandpowerconsumptionathighspeed.•ForCFsupto24feetindiameter,DOEproposestestinghigh‐volumeCFsusingatestprocedurebasedonAMCA230‐12(i.e.,keepingwithindustrypracticeforhigh‐volumeCFswithbladespanslessthan6feet).•Considerations:•High‐volumeCFsareoftennotequippedwithdiscretespeeds.•AMCA230requiresonlyaloadcelltomeasureairvelocity,whichappearstobemorepracticalforlarge‐diameterfansthanusinganarrayofsensorsasrequiredinthecurrentDOEtestprocedureforlow‐volumeCFs.•High‐volumeCFsaretypicallyofferedinarangeofdiametersfrom36inchesto24feet,meaningsomefansaretoolargetobeaccommodatedbycurrentlow‐volumeCFtestingfacilities.444.TestMethodforHigh‐VolumeCFs•DOEproposestomodifythespecifiedroomdimensionsforhigh‐volumeCFsinthefollowingways:≥44”forallCFs= 20’forCFswithbladespan > 6’≥10’forCFswithbladespan > 6’Issue10:High‐VolumeCFTestingDOEseekscommentonitsproposedapproachtotesthigh‐volumefansathighspeedonly.Issue13:TestRoomDimensionsandTestingFacilitiesDOEseekscommentontheproposedmodificationstothetestingroomdimensionsforhigh‐volumeCFs.DOEspecificallyrequestsinformationonhowmanufacturerscurrentlytestlarge‐diameter,high‐volumeCFs,aswellastheavailabilityofsuitablethird‐partytestingfacilitiesthatcanconducttheproposedtestprocedureandtheabilitytodevelopsuchfacilities.455.TestMethodforPowerConsumptioninStandbyMode•DOEproposestoteststandbypowerconsumptioninCFswithstandbyfunctionalityforbothlow‐volumeandhigh‐volumefans.•Low‐volumeCFstypicallyonlyhavestandbyfunctionalityifsoldwitharemotecontrol.•High‐volumeCFsmayalsohavestandbyfromvariablefrequencydrives.•DOEproposestoincorporateInternationalElectrotechnicalCommission(IEC)62301byreferenceasabasisforstandbymodetesting,butreducetheintervaloftimeoverwhichtestingoccursto100seconds,aswellastheperiodoftimepriortostandbytesting.•DOEdoesnotproposetoconducttestingofoff‐modepowerconsumption.46CFTestProcedureNOPRPresentationOverviewProposed Metric3Proposed Modifications to Current Test Procedure4Closing Remarks8Covered Products1Proposed Additional Test Methods5Effective Date & Compliance Date; Sampling Plan6Existing Test Procedure2Review under the Regulatory Flexibility Act747EffectiveDateandComplianceDate•TheproposalsforamendingAppendixUwouldnotaffectamanufacturer’sabilitytocomplywithcurrentenergyconservationstandardsbecauseDOEdoesnotcurrentlyhaveperformance‐basedstandardsforCFsasmeasuredbyairflowefficiency.•DOEexpectsthatanyfinalrulewillbeineffect30daysafterpublicationofthetestprocedurefinalruleintheFederalRegister.•RevisedAppendixUmust beusedtodetermineanyrepresentationsofefficiency180daysafterthepublicationofanyfinalamendedtestproceduresintheFederalRegister.48SamplingPlan•DOEproposesthattheminimumsamplesizefortestingCFsshallbetwo,asrequiredin10CFRPart429.11.•DOEproposesanyrepresentedvalueoftheefficiencyorairflowshallbelessthanorequaltothelowerof:Sample	mean, ݔ̅ൌ1݊ݔ ෍௜௡௜ୀଵሻܮܥܮሺ	ݐ݈݅݉݅	݂݊݅݀݁݊ܿ݁݋ܿ	ݎ݁ݓ݋ܮ0.9ൌݔ̅ݐ െ଴ଽ.଴ݏ݊0.9•n– numberofsamples•xi– theithsample•t0.90– tstatisticfora90%one‐tailedconfidenceintervalwithn‐1degreesoffreedom•S– samplestandarddeviation49SamplingPlan•DOEproposesanyrepresentedvalueofthewattageshallbegreaterthanorequaltothehigherof:Sample	mean, ݔ̅ൌ1݊ݔ ෍௜௡௜ୀଵሻܮܥܷሺ	ݐ݈݅݉݅	݂݊݅݀݁݊ܿ݁݋ܿ	ݎ݁݌݌ܷ1.1ൌݔ̅ݐ െଽହ.଴ݏ݊1.1•n– numberofsamples•xi– theithsample•t0.95– tstatisticfora95%one‐tailedconfidenceintervalwithn‐1degreesoffreedom•S– samplestandarddeviation50CFTestProcedureNOPRPresentationOverviewProposed Metric3Proposed Modifications to Current Test Procedure4Closing Remarks8Covered Products1Proposed Additional Test Methods5Effective Date & Compliance Date; Sampling Plan6Existing Test Procedure2Review under the Regulatory Flexibility Act751ReviewundertheRegulatoryFlexibilityAct•DOEhaspreparedaninitialregulatoryflexibilityanalysis(IRFA)forthisrulemaking,whichdescribespotentialimpactsonsmallbusinessesassociatedwithCFtestingrequirements.•DOEusedtheSmallBusinessAdministration’ssmallbusinesssizestandardsforNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS)codes335210and333412todeterminewhetheranysmallCFmanufacturerswouldbesubjecttotherequirementsoftherule:•DOEestimatesthattherearebetween25and35smallbusinessmanufacturersoflow‐volumeCFs.•DOEestimatesthattherearebetween15and25smallbusinessmanufacturersofhigh‐volumeCFs.52•Projectedcompliancerequirementsofproposedruleforlow‐volumeCFs,relativetocurrentENERGYSTARtestprocedure:ReviewundertheRegulatoryFlexibilityActCurrent ENERGY STARTP ProposedDOETP DifferenceTesting at3fanspeeds Testingat2fanspeeds +35mintesttimeDoes notrequirefalseceiling Requiresfalseceiling‐$1,000(max,one‐timecost)Requirestestcylinder Doesnotrequiretestcylinder+$2,000‐$3,000/newcylinder+15 mintesttimeRequires30min warm‐uptimebeforetestingatlowspeedRequires15minwarm‐uptimebeforetestingatlowspeed+15minDoesnotrequirestandbymodetestingRequiresstandby modetesting‐5min(max)testtimeEstimatedCostofProposedTPforLow‐VolumeCFsStandardandHugger$1,200‐$3,600/basicmodelMulti‐Mount$2,400‐$7,200/basicmodelMulti‐Head$2,600‐$4,000/basicmodel53•Expectedtestcostsunderproposedruleforhigh‐volumeCFs:ReviewundertheRegulatoryFlexibilityActDescription EstimatedCostLoad‐cell,fabricatedload‐cellframe,powermeter, andoneairvelocitysensor$4,500(one‐timecost)Costtoconductproposedtestprocedure$2,000‐$7,000/basicmodel54ReviewundertheRegulatoryFlexibilityActLow‐Volume CFs High‐VolumeCFsNumberofsmallbusinessmanufacturers25‐35 15‐25Numberofbasicmodelsper manufacturer1‐80 1‐30Median revenue≈$15,000,000≈$8,000,000TestingCostasFractionofMedianRevenue0.01%‐1% 0.05%‐1.5%Issue15:NumberofSmallBusinessManufacturersofCFsDOEinvitesinterestedpartiestocommentontheestimatednumberofsmallbusinessmanufacturersofCFs.55ReviewundertheRegulatoryFlexibilityActIssue17:ImpactonSmallBusinessManufacturersofCFsDOErequestscommentsonitsanalysisofburdentosmallbusinessesfortestingCFsaccordingtotheproposedtestprocedure.Issue18:AlternativeTestMethodstoMinimizeEconomicImpactsDOEseekscommentandinformationonanyalternativetestmethodsthat,consistentwiththestatutoryrequirements,wouldreducetheeconomicimpactoftheruleonsmallentities.Issue19:Inter‐LabCalibrationforTestingFacilitiesDOEseekscommentonhowcalibrationbetweentestingfacilitiescouldbefacilitated.56CFTestProcedureNOPRPresentationOverviewProposed Metric3Proposed Modifications to Current Test Procedure4Closing Remarks8Covered Products1Proposed Additional Test Methods5Effective Date & Compliance Date; Sampling Plan6Existing Test Procedure2Review under the Regulatory Flexibility Act757CeilingFansEnergyConservationStandards– PreliminaryAnalysis58HowtoSubmitWrittenComments•Inallcorrespondence,pleaserefertotheCFrulemakingby:– EnergyConservationStandardsforCeilingFans;– DocketNumberEERE‐2012‐BT‐STD‐0045;and– RegulatoryIdentificationNumber(RIN)1904‐AC87.•Email:CeilingFan2012STD0045@ee.doe.govPostal:Courier:Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgram,MailstopEE‐2J1000IndependenceAvenue,SWWashington,DC20585‐0121Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgram,Suite600950L’EnfantPlaza,SWWashington,DC20024Tel:202586‐2945EnergyConservationStandardsTSDCommentPeriodcloses:November28,2014,11:59PMEDT59OpeningRemarksMeetingparticipantsareinvitedtoprovideopeningremarksorstatementsatthistime.60CFsECSRulemakingScheduleMilestone DateNoticeofPublicMeetingandAvailabilityofCFsandCFLKsFrameworkDocumentMarch11,2013NoticeofPublicMeetingandAvailabilityofCFsPreliminaryTechnicalSupportDocumentSeptember29,2014NoticeofProposedRulemakingforCFs(projected)Q3*2015FinalRuleforCFs(projected)Q2*2016ComplianceDateforCFs(projected)Q2*2019*Calendarquarters2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 20202015201961RegulatoryHistory:EnergyConservationStandards•TheEnergyPolicyActof2005amendedtheEnergyPolicyandConservationActof1975(EPCA)byaddingCFsascoveredproducts.(42U.S.C.6295(ff))−ProvidedDOEtheabilitytoestablishenergyconservationstandardsfor“ceilingfans,”asdefinedby42U.S.C.6291(49),andsetforthrequirementsfordeterminingwhetherstandardsshouldbeamended.•OnOctober18,2005,DOEpublishedafinalruletechnicalamendment(70FR60407,60413)codifyingstatutorily‐prescribeddesignstandardsforCFs,including:−Fanspeedcontrolsseparatefromanylightcontrols;−Adjustablespeedcontrols;and−Capabilityforreverseaction(exceptforfansforindustrialoroutdoorapplications,orcaseswheresafetystandardswouldbeviolated).•DOEisconductingthisenergyconservationstandardsrulemakingpursuantto42U.S.C.6295(ff)(6).62PreliminaryAnalysisStageFrameworkDocumentPrelimAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket&TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergyUse&EndUseLoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisLife‐CycleCostandPaybackPeriodAnalysisMarkupsAnalysis/ProductPriceDeterminationPrelimMIA63EPCAFactors42U.S.C.6295(o)(2)(B)(i)directsDOEtoconsidersevenfactorswhensettingenergyconservationstandards.EPCAFactors DOEAnalysis1.EconomicimpactonconsumersandmanufacturersLife‐CycleCostAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysis2.LifetimeoperatingcostsavingscomparedtoincreasedcostfortheproductLife‐CycleCostAnalysis3.Totalprojectedenergysavings NationalImpactAnalysis4.ImpactonutilityorperformanceEngineeringAnalysisScreeningAnalysis5.Impactofanylesseningofcompetition ManufacturerImpactAnalysis6.Needfornationalenergyconservation NationalImpactAnalysis7.OtherfactorstheSecretaryconsidersrelevantEmissionsAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysis64CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses1065ScopeofCoverage•EPCAdefinesa“ceilingfan”as“anonportabledevicethatissuspendedfromaceilingforcirculatingairviatherotationoffanblades.”(42U.S.C.6291(49))•IntheTPNOPR,DOEisproposingto:•reinterpretthedefinitionof“ceilingfan”toincorporatehuggerCFs,•clarifythatmulti‐mountfansareincluded,and•clarifythathigh‐volumefansareincluded(wherevolumereferstoairflowvolume).•DOEisrequiredtoconsiderestablishingseparateexemptedproductclassesforhighlydecorativefansforwhichairmovementperformanceisasecondaryfeature.(42U.S.C.6295(ff)(6)(B)(ii))•Statutorily‐prescribeddesignstandardswillremaininplace.66ScopeofCoverage:CFDefinitions•RegulatoryDefinitionsUnderConsiderationinthisPre‐Analysis:•HighlydecorativeCF:“Aceilingfanthatoperatesatamaximumrotationalspeedof90RPMandproduceslessthan2000CFMofairflowonhighspeed.”•RegulatoryDefinitionsProposedintheConcurrentCFTestProcedureNOPRanddiscussedthismorning:•Low‐volumeCF•High‐volumeCF•HuggerCF•StandardCF•Multi‐MountCFIssue1:DefinitionofHighlyDecorativeCFsDOEinvitescommentsontheproposeddefinitionforhighlydecorativeCFs.67CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses1068Market&TechnologyAssessment•Purpose:•CharacterizetheCFmarket•Defineproductclasses•Identifytechnologyoptions•Method:•IdentifyandcharacterizemanufacturersofCFs•Identifyexistingregulatoryandvoluntaryefficiencyprograms•Gatherhistoricalshipmentandotherrelevantmarketdata•Estimatemarkettrends•Identifymeasuresthatcouldimproveefficiency69MarketAssessmentCF CategoriesMarketDescriptionMayInclude...PercentofMarketinDOEAnalysisHigh‐VolumeIndustrial,commercial ~10%Low‐VolumeResidential,commercial ~90%StandardStandard,indoor,extended26%HuggerHugger,low‐profile,flushmount21%Multi‐MountMulti‐position,downrod orflushmount53%HighlyDecorativeDecorative<1%70MarketAssessmentLow‐VolumeCFs High‐VolumeCFsMajorManufacturersandMarket•≈80%ofCFssoldthroughthreemass marketretailers•MostCFsmanufactured overseas•Mostlarge‐diameter fansmanufacturedinU.S.;DOEassumesmostsmall‐diameterfansmanufacturedoverseas•LimitedmarketdataavailableHistoricalShipments,2011≈18.8million(NPD,2011) Limited dataavailableSaturation,2009In73%of UShouseholds,3.1fansperhousehold (RECS,2009)Limited dataavailableLifetime7‐18 years(ApplianceMagazinedata)•DOEestimatedmeanof13.8yearsLimiteddataavailable; assumedtobesameasforlow‐volume CFs71MarketAssessmentIssue2:ManufacturingLocationsofHigh‐VolumeCFsDOErequestscommentandinputonthemanufacturinglocationforhigh‐volumeCFs,particularlyhigh‐volumesmall‐diameterCFs.Issue3:High‐VolumeCFDataDOEseekscommentanddataondistributionofsizesandmotorpowerforbothhigh‐volumelarge‐diameterCFsandhigh‐volumesmall‐diameterCFs.Inparticular,forhigh‐volumelarge‐diameterCFs,DOEassumesa1horsepowerCFisrepresentativeofthatentiremarketandrequestscommentontheaccuracyofthisassumption.DOEalsoseekscommentanddataonthedistributionofendusersbyindustryandapplicationandthegeographicdistributionofhigh‐volumeCFs.72MarketAssessmentIssue8:ResidentialCFPenetrationDOEestimatedacurrenthouseholdsaturationrateforCFsof73%.DOEassumedthattheresidentialmarketforlow‐volumeCFswouldcontinuetopenetrateuntilasaturationof75%isreached.Additionally,DOEestimatedanaverageof3.1CFsinstalledinanewinstallation.DOEwelcomescommentontheseassumptions.73ProductClasses•Currently:onlyoneproductclass.•InDOE’spreviousrulemakingaddressingCFs(71FR71340(Dec.8,2006)),DOEdidnotestablishstandardsforCFsbeyondthedesignstandardsinsection325(ff)ofEPCA,whichapplytoallCFs.(42U.S.C.6295(ff)).•PursuanttoEPCA,DOEestablishesdifferentproductclassesby:(1)typeofenergyused;(2)capacityoftheproduct;or(3)anyotherperformance‐relatedfeaturesthatrequiredifferentstandardlevels,suchasfeaturesaffectingconsumerutility.(42U.S.C.6295(q))•DOEisconsideringestablishingfive(5)separateCFproductclassesforthisrulemaking,basedoncapacityandperformance‐relatedfeaturesthataffectconsumerutility.74ProductClassesProductClass Definition

Low

‐ volumeHuggerLowestpointonfanbladesis≤10inchesfromtheceilingStandardLowestpointonfanblades>10inchesfromtheceilingHighlydecorativeRotationalspeed≤90RPMand airflow≤2,000CFMathighspeed

High

‐ volumeSmall‐diameter(HVSD)High‐volumeCFwithdiameter≤7feetLarge‐diameter(HVLD)High‐volumeCFwithdiameter >7feet75•Multi‐mountCFsaredefinedasCFsthatcanbeinstalledinboththestandardandhuggerconfigurations.•IntheconcurrentTPNOPRforCFs,DOEisproposingtotestlow‐volumemulti‐mountCFsinboththestandardandhuggerconfigurations.•DOEisconsideringrequiringmulti‐mountCFsmeetthepotentialenergyconservationstandardsforbothstandardandhuggerproductclasses.Multi‐MountCFsIssue14:ProductClassesDOEseekscommentontheproductclassesunderconsiderationforCFs.DOEalsoseekscommentonitsapproachtohighlydecorativeCFs.76TechnologyOptionsMoreEfficientMotors:•Direct‐drivesingle‐phaseinductionmotors•Gearedsingle‐phaseinductionmotors•Brushlessdirectcurrent(DC)motors•Three‐phaseinductionmotorsCFControls:•Occupancysensors•DOEinvestigatedthefollowingtechnologyoptionstoimproveCFefficiency:MoreEfficientBlades:•Fewerfanblades•Twistedblades•Curved/airfoilblades•Bladeattachments•Beveledblades•Bladematerial77TechnologyOptionsIssue12:CFswithWindandTemperatureSensorsDOErequestinformationontheavailabilityofCFsincludingwindandtemperaturesensorsandanydataonthepotentialenergysavingsassociatedwithsuchproducts.Issue13:CFsTechnologyOptionsDOErequestscommentonthesetechnologyoptionsbeingconsideredforCFsandanyadditionaloptionsthatshouldbeincluded.78CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses1079•ScreenoutdesignoptionsthatDOEwillnotconsiderintheengineeringanalysisforceilingfansbasedon:1. Technologicalfeasibility:incorporationincommerciallyavailableproductsorinworkingprototypes2. Practicabilitytomanufacture,install,andservice:massproductionandreliableinstallationandservicingcouldbeachievedonthescalenecessarytoservetherelevantmarketatthetimethestandardrequirescompliance3. Adverseimpactsonproductutilityorproductavailability:significantadverseimpactontheutilityoftheproducttosignificantsubgroupsofconsumers,orcausingtheunavailabilityofanycoveredproducttypewithperformancecharacteristics,features,sizes,capacities,andvolumesthataresubstantiallythesameasproductsgenerallyavailableintheUnitedStatesatthetime4. Adverseimpactsonhealthorsafety:significantadverseimpactsonhealthorsafetyScreeningAnalysisPurpose80DesignOptions:Low‐VolumeCeilingFans•DOEidentifiedthedesignoptionsbelowthatcanimprovelow‐volumeceilingfanefficiency.MoreEfficientMotorsMore EfficientDirect‐DriveSingle‐PhaseInductionMotorsScreenedinBrushlessDCMotorsScreenedinGearedInductionMotorsScreenedoutThree‐PhaseInductionMotorsScreenedoutMoreEfficientBladesFanswithFewerBladesScreenedoutAirfoilBladesScreenedoutBeveledBladesScreenedoutTwistedBladesScreenedoutBladeAttachmentsScreenedoutAlternativeBladeMaterialsScreenedoutCeilingFanControlsOccupancySensorsScreenedout81DesignOptions:High‐VolumeCeilingFans•DOEidentifiedthedesignoptionsbelowthatcanimprovehigh‐volumesmall‐diameter(HVSD)ceilingfanefficiency.MoreEfficientMotorsBrushlessDCMotorsScreenedinMoreEfficientDirect‐DriveSingle‐PhaseInductionMotorsScreenedoutGearedInductionMotorsScreenedoutThree‐PhaseInductionMotorsScreenedoutMoreEfficientBladesAirfoilBladesScreenedinCurvedBlades ScreenedinFanswithFewerBladesScreenedoutTwistedBladesScreenedoutBladeAttachmentsScreenedoutAlternativeBladeMaterialsScreenedoutCeilingFanControlsOccupancySensorsScreenedout82DesignOptions:High‐VolumeCeilingFans•DOEidentifiedthedesignoptionsbelowthatcanimprovehigh‐volumelarge‐diameter(HVLD)ceilingfanefficiency.MoreEfficientMotorsGearedMotorsScreenedinThree‐PhaseInductionMotorsScreenedinBrushlessDCMotorsScreenedinMoreEfficientDirect‐DriveSingle‐PhaseInductionMotorsScreenedoutMoreEfficientBladesAirfoilBladesScreenedinFanswithFewerBladesScreenedinCurvedBlades ScreenedinTwistedBladesScreenedoutBladeAttachmentsScreenedoutAlternativeBladeMaterialsScreenedoutCeilingFanControlsOccupancySensorsScreenedout83CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses1084Chooseproductclassesandrepresentativefansizestobeanalyzed.Selectbaselineefficiencylevelbasedoncommonfeaturesandbottom‐of‐marketefficiency.Foreachrepresentativeproductclassandsize,identifytheefficiencyandcostofmoreefficientunitsbasedondesignoptionmodeling,producttesting,andteardowns.Developefficiencylevelsthatrangefromthebaselinetomax‐tech.Theresultoftheengineeringanalysisisasetofcost‐efficiencycurves(MSPvs.efficiency)foreachproductclassandrepresentativesizeanalyzed.ChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizesSelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipEngineeringAnalysis•ScopeofCoverageMethodology85•DOEanalyzedthefollowingrepresentativesizesoflow‐volumefansintwoproductclasses:SelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisEngineeringAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCeilingFansLow‐VolumeCeilingFansProductClass RepresentativeSizeStandardFans•44‐inch•52‐inch•60‐inchHuggerFans•44‐inch•52‐inchIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes86SelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisEngineeringAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCeilingFans•DOEselectedbaselinemodelstypicalofthemostcommon,least‐efficientceilingfans offeredinthemarket,i.e.,‘market‐minimum’fans.–DOEresearchshowedthatthemostcommonmodelsonthemarketwereflat‐bladefanswithsingle‐phaseinductionmotors.–However,theleastefficientmodelsonthemarkethad“unconventional,”non‐flatblades.•Theperformancesofboththeflat‐bladeandunconventional‐bladefanswereanalyzedseparately.•Thefinalcost‐efficiencycurveisanaggregatethatrepresentsamarket‐weightedaverageofbothbladetypes.–Thebaselineefficiencyofthiscurveistheefficiencyoftheleastefficientfanonthemarketforeachproductclassandrepresentativesize.Hence,thebaselineefficiencyistheefficiencyofthemarket‐minimumunconventional‐bladefans.IdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes87SelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisEngineeringAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCeilingFansIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes•Thefollowingtablesprovideboththemarket‐minimumflat‐bladeandunconventional‐bladefanefficiencies.–Theefficiencynumberscircledbelowcorrespondtothebaselineefficienciesforthefinalcost‐efficiencycurve.MarketMinimumFlat‐BladeFansProductClass/Representative SizeEfficiency(CFM/W)Standard/44‐inch 66Standard/52‐inch 64Standard/60‐inch 68Hugger/44‐inch 49*Hugger/52‐inch 50*MarketMinimumUnconventional‐BladeFansProductClass/Representative SizeEfficiency(CFM/W)Standard/44‐inch 50Standard/52‐inch 49Standard/60‐inch 51Hugger/44‐inch 37*Hugger/52‐inch 38**Thehuggerceilingfanefficienciesaccountforanartificialceiling.88•DOEselectedarangeofceilingfansfortesting.•Thesehigherefficiencyunitsweretorndownandcosted.–DOEcalculatedthecostoftheindividualcomponentsineachfan,i.e.blades,motor,motorhousing,packaging,controls,finalassembly,etc.Fromthis,DOEestimatedthefactorycostofthetorn‐downfans.–DOEthendevelopedamodeltoestimatethefactorycostoffansthatwerenottorndown.SelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisEngineeringAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCeilingFansIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes89•DOEuseddatafrommultiplesourcestocalculatehowincorporatingeachdesignoptionwouldincreasetheefficiencyandcostofabaselineceilingfan.SelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisEngineeringAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCeilingFansIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes•Thedesignoptions,intermsofincreasingefficiencydeltas,weredeterminedtobe:1. Fanoptimization2. Alargerdirectdrivemotor3. ADCmotor.Sources:•TestData•ManufacturerSpecifications•RetailPrices•ManufacturerInterviews•Teardowns90•DOEcreatedtwoseparatecost‐efficiencycurvesbyapplyingtheefficiencyandcostdeltasforeachdesignoptiontotheefficiencyandcostvaluesofthemarket‐minimumflat‐bladeandunconventional‐bladefans.•Therelativemarketsharesoftheunconventional‐bladeandflat‐bladefanswereusedtoaggregatethetwocost‐efficiencycurvesintoasinglecurveforeachproductclassandrepresentativesize.•Thefollowingefficiencylevelswereidentifiedfortheaggregatecurve:SelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisEngineeringAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCeilingFansEfficiencyLevel(EL) DescriptionEL0 BaselineEL1 AggregatedMarketMinimumEL2 EL1+FanOptimizationEL3 EL2+LargerDirectDriveMotorsEL4 EL2+DCMotorIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes91EngineeringAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCeilingFansSelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizesUnconventional‐bladefansFlat‐bladefansAggregateCost EfficiencyCurve

Factory Cost ($)Efficiency(CFM/W)98%2%Weightings:Relativeweightingsarebasedonthemarketshareofeachbladetype.BaselineEfficiency:EfficiencyoftheleastefficientfanonthemarketMax‐TechEfficiency:Efficiencywassettothemaximumefficiencyoftheunconventional‐bladefans.92EngineeringAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCeilingFans•SinceDOEresearchindicatedthatthelow‐volumeceilingfansarebeingmanufacturedbythird‐partyfactoriesoutsideoftheU.S.,amarkupof1.2wasusedtocalculatethemanufacturerproductioncost(MPC).Amanufacturermarkupof1.37wasappliedtotheMPCtocalculatethemanufacturersellingprice(MSP).•Theresultisasetofcost‐efficiencyrelationshipsforeachdesignoption,intheformofMSPasafunctionofCFM/W,foreachproductclassandrepresentativesize.SelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizesFactoryCost•Directmaterial•Directlabor•Factoryoverhead•DepreciationManufacturerSellingPrice(MSP)ManufacturerProductionCost(MPC)FactoryMarkup=1.2FactoryMarkup=1.2ManufacturerMarkup=1.37ManufacturerMarkup=1.3793ResultsoftheEngineeringAnalysis– Low‐Volume•Thefinalcost‐efficiencycurvesforeachproductclassandrepresentativesizewereusedtocreate acontinuousrelationshipbetweenceilingfandiameter(in)andefficiency(CFM/W).StandardLow‐VolumeFans(withoutartificialceiling)94•DOEanalyzedthefollowingrepresentativesizesofhigh‐volumefansintwoproductclasses:SelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsEngineeringAnalysis:High‐VolumeCeilingFansHigh‐Volume CeilingFansProductClass RepresentativeSizeHVLD•8‐foot•12‐foot•20‐footHVSD•36‐inch•56‐inchDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes95EngineeringAnalysis:High‐VolumeCeilingFans•Thebaselinemodelrepresentsthemostcommon,leastefficientmodelonthemarketforeachrepresentativeproductclass.•Researchshowedthat:–themostcommonHVLDmodelsinthemarketwerecurved,extrudedaluminumbladedfanswithgearedthree‐phaseinductionmotors–themostcommonHVSDmodelsinthemarketwereflat,steelbladedfanswithconventionalAC(PSC)motorsSelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes96EngineeringAnalysis:High‐VolumeCeilingFansSelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnits•TheleastefficientHVLDandHVSDfansonthemarketintherepresentativesizeswereidentifiedusingpubliclyavailableperformancedata.•DOEplottedCFM/WversusfandiameterandappliedalineartrendlinetoobtainanequationwhichprovidedthebaselineCFM/WateachrepresentativesizeintheHVSDandHVLDclasses.High‐VolumeBaselineFansProductClass/Representative SizeEfficiency(CFM/W)HVLD/8‐foot44.4HVLD/12‐foot86.7HVLD/20‐foot171.4HVSD/36‐inch80.3HVSD/56‐inch231.0DetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes97•Higherefficiencylevelswereidentifiedusingtheefficiencydatafromretailerandmanufacturerwebsites,manufacturerinterviews,andthelow‐volumefananalysisforthecostandefficiencyrelationship.•Thecostsateachefficiencylevelweredeterminedbyback‐calculatingthefan’sMPCfromadvertisedpurchaseprices.─ForHVSDfans,DOEusedtheprocessshownbelowtocalculatetheMPC.EngineeringAnalysis:High‐VolumeCeilingFansSelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizesPurchasePrice(PP)U.S.ManufacturerSellingPrice(MSP)U.S.ManufacturerProductionCost(MPC)─ForHVLDfans,becauseDOEassumedHVLDfanmanufacturershavetheirownproductionfacilities,onlythedealerandmanufacturermarkupswereappliedtothefan’spurchasepricetocalculatetheMPC.ManufacturerMarkup=1.37ManufacturerMarkup=1.37DealerMarkup=1.74,Tariff,Shipping,OverheadDealerMarkup=1.74,Tariff,Shipping,Overhead•Directmaterial•Directlabor•Factoryoverhead•Depreciation98•Similartothelow‐volumeengineeringanalysis,DOEcreatedcostandefficiencydeltasforeachscreened‐indesignoptionforthehigh‐volumeengineeringanalysis.•Thedesignoptions,fromleastefficienttomostefficientare:–HVLDfan:1. Eighttosixblades2. Airfoilblades3. DCmotor–HVSDfan:1. Curvedblades2. Airfoilblades3. DCmotorSelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisEngineeringAnalysis:High‐VolumeCeilingFansDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes99EngineeringAnalysis:High‐VolumeCeilingFans•Thefollowingefficiencylevelswereidentifiedforthecost‐efficiencyrelationship.–ForHVLDceilingfans:–ForHVSDceilingfans:SelectBaselineEfficiencyLevelsIdentifyHigherEfficiencyUnitsDevelopEfficiencyLevelsforAnalysisEfficiencyLevel(EL) DescriptionEL0 BaselineEL1 EL0+CurvedBladesEL2 EL0+ AirfoilBladesEL3 EL2+DCMotorEfficiencyLevel(EL) DescriptionEL0 BaselineEL1 EL0+SixBladesEL2 EL1+ AirfoilBladesEL3 EL2+DCMotorDetermineCost‐EfficiencyRelationshipChooseProductClassesandRepresentativeSizes100ResultsoftheEngineeringAnalysis– HighVolumeHigh‐VolumeLargeDiameterFans•Thefinalcost‐efficiencycurvesforeachproductclassandrepresentativesizewereusedtocreateacontinuousrelationshipbetweenceilingfandiameter(in)andefficiency(CFM/W).101ResultsoftheEngineeringAnalysis– HighVolumeHigh‐VolumeSmallDiameterFans•ForHVSDfans,apiecewiseapproachwasusedtobestdemonstratetherelationshipbetweenceilingfandiameter(in)andefficiency(CFM/W).102CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses10103•Purpose–Determinepurchasepricesforallefficiencylevelsbasedonmanufacturersellingprice(MSP)–Characterizeproductdistributionchannelsandmarketsegments•Definition–BaselinemarkupsrelatetheMSPofproductwithbaselineefficiencytotheconsumerpurchaseprice–IncrementalmarkupsrelatetheincrementalchangeinMSPofproductwithhigherefficiencytotheincrementalchangeinconsumerpurchaseprice•IncrementalmarkupscoveronlyexpensesthatvarywithMSP‐inthiscase,expensesthatincreasewithequipmentefficiencyMarkupsAnalysis104MarkupsAnalysis•DistributionChannelsforLow‐VolumeCFs•DistributionChannelsforHigh‐VolumeCFsManufacturerElectricWholesalerContractorConsumerHomeImprovementCenterShowroomManufacturerDealerConsumerIn‐HouseDealer105MarkupsAnalysis•HomeImprovementCenterandShowroomMarkups:–10‐Kreportswereusedtoestimatemarkupsforthreemajorretailers.–DOEalsousedthe2007U.S.CensusAnnualRetailTradeSurveyfor“OverallBuildingMaterialandSuppliesDealers.”•Showroommarkupsestimateswerebasedoninputfrommanufacturerinterviews.•WholesalerandContractorMarkups:–The2007U.S.CensusAnnualWholesalerTradeReportfor“Electricalandelectronicappliance,televisionandradiosetmerchantwholesaler”wasusedtodevelopwholesalermarkups.–DOEused2013RSMeansElectricalCostDatatodevelopcontractormarkups.•Dealermarkupsarebasedon10‐Kreports.•TariffandShippingCosts:–Applicableforlow‐volumeCFsandhigh‐volumesmalldiameterCFs.106MarkupsAnalysis•MarkupsforLow‐VolumeCFs•MarkupsforHigh‐VolumeCFsDistributionChannelManufacturerHomeCenterConsumerManufacturerWholesalerContractorConsumerManufacturerShowroomConsumerBaseline IncrementalBaseline IncrementalBaseline IncrementalManufacturer1.37 1.37 1.37HomeCenter1.50 1.14‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐Wholesaler‐‐ ‐‐1.25 1.10‐‐ ‐‐Contractor‐‐ ‐‐1.10 1.10‐‐ ‐‐Showroom‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐2.00 1.52SalesTax1.071 1.071 1.071DistributionChannelManufacturerDealerCustomer ManufacturerIn‐houseDealerCustomerBaseline IncrementalBaseline IncrementalManufacturer1.37 1.37Dealer/In‐houseDealer1.74 1.21 1.74 1.21SalesTax1.071 1.071 1.071 1.071107Issue27:DistributionChannelsandMarkupsforHigh‐VolumeCFsDOErequestsdataandinformationondistributionchannelsandpricemarkupsforhigh‐volumeCFs.Issue28:ShippingandTariffCostsDOErequestsdataandinformationonwhopaystheshippingandtariffcostsforimportedfansineachdistributionchannel,especiallyforhigh‐volumesmall‐diameterCFsandforthelow‐volumeCFssoldthroughawholesaler.MarkupsAnalysis108CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses10109EnergyUseCharacterization•Purpose:•DevelopdistributionsofannualenergyconsumptionrepresentativeofpurchasersinU.S.•Annualenergyuseisthesiteenergyuseassociatedwithoperatingtheproduct.•ThesedistributionsareusedintheLCCandPBPanalysistocalculateannualoperatingcosts.•Method:•Developpurchasersamplesforlow‐volumeandhigh‐volumefans.•Developdistributionofoperatinghoursateachspeed.•Determineactivemodeenergyusebymultiplyingoperatinghoursbypowerconsumedateachspeed.•Determinestandbyenergyconsumptionbymultiplyingstandbyhoursbystandbypower.•Totalannualenergyuseissumofactive‐andstandby‐modeenergyuse.110EnergyUseCharacterization•MonteCarlosampleof10,000purchasers.•Low‐volumeCFs:•Assumedtobeusedinresidentialapplicationsonly.•RandomlyselectedhouseholdsfromCFownersintheEnergyInformationAdministration’s(EIA)2009ResidentialEnergyConsumptionSurvey(RECS).•High‐volumeCFs:•Assumedtobeusedincommercialandindustrialapplicationsonly.•Commercial‐industrialsplitestimatedbasedonthefloorspaceratioforlikelyCFinstallationlocationsPurchaserSamples111EnergyUseCharacterization•Low‐volumeCFs:•UsedinformationfromasurveyofCFownersperformedbyLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory(LBNLstudy).•Averageof6.45hoursperday.•Averageof41%oftimeathighspeed,37%atmedium,and22%atlow.•Sampledfromcensus‐division‐specifichoursofusedistributionsforeachCFintheMonteCarlosample.•High‐volumeCFs:•Usedfeedbackfrommanufacturerinterviews.•Averageof12hoursperday.•Average10%oftimeathighspeed,80%atmedium,and10%atlow.•Nodifferenceinoperatinghoursbygeographiclocationorseason.OperatingHours112EnergyUseCharacterization•Low‐volumeCFs:•Providedbyengineeringanalysis.•Regardingenergyuseofmulti‐mountCFs:whenanalyzingagivenELforthehuggerproductclass,DOEassumedanequivalentELforthestandardproductclass(andvice‐versa).•High‐volumeCFs:•Powerathighspeedprovidedbyengineeringanalysis.•Usedratiosbetweenspeedsfromlow‐volumeengineeringanalysistodeterminepoweratlowandmediumspeed.•Medium:53%ofhigh‐speedpower.•Low:23%ofhigh‐speedpower.PowerDuringOperation113EnergyUseCharacterization•Low‐volumeCFs:•StandbyforallDCfans(i.e.,2%ofCFsatEL4).•StandbyforallACfanswithremotecontrol.•Estimated7.4%offanshaveremotecontrol,basedonLBNLstudy.•Powerduringstandby=1.4watts,basedonmanufacturerfeedback.•High‐volumeCFs:•StandbyforallDCsmall‐diameterfans.•Standbyforalllarge‐diameterCFs,becauseofvariablefrequencydrive.•Powerduringstandby=1.4watts.Assumedtobethesameaslow‐volumeCFs.•CFswithstandbyfunctionalitywereassumedtobeinstandbymodeduringallhoursnotinactivemode.Standby114EnergyUseCharacterization•DOEissuedaRequestforInformationonthistopicinOctober2013.•DOEconsideredthefollowingsourcestoinformitsposition:•2009ResidentialEnergyConsumptionSurvey•FloridaSolarEnergyCenter:AreEnergySavingsDuetoCeilingFansJustHotAir?•SanDiegoGas&Electric:StatewideInvestorOwnedUtilityCeilingFanStudy•CeilingFanandCeilingFanLightKitUseintheU.S.—ResultsofaSurveyonAmazonMechanicalTurk•ASHRAEStandard55‐2010•AcuPOLL®PrecisionResearch,Inc.:SurveyofConsumerCeilingFanUsageandOperations•Duetothenegligibleimpactonshipments,DOEbelievesthatinteractionsbetweenceilingfanuseandairconditioninguseonanationallevelwouldbenegligible.•Consequently,DOEhasassumednoimpactonairconditioningusageintheenergyuseanalysis.InteractionBetweenCFsandAirConditioning115EnergyUseCharacterizationExampleResultsfor52”Low‐VolumeStandardFansELEnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)0 145 01 106 392 93 523 82 634 57 88116EnergyUseCharacterizationAverageLow‐VolumeStandardResultsEL44‐inchdiameter52‐inchdiameter 60‐inchdiameterEnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)EnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)EnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)096 0 145 0 189 0170 25 106 39 139 51264 31 93 52 116 73359 37 82 63 101 88441 55 57 88 70 120AverageLow‐VolumeHuggerResultsEL44‐inchdiameter52‐inchdiameterEnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)EnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)0108 0 131 0179 29 96 35276 32 87 44369 38 77 54448 59 54 78117EnergyUseCharacterizationAverageHigh‐VolumeSmall‐DiameterResultsAverageHigh‐VolumeLarge‐DiameterResultsEL36‐inchdiameter 56‐inchdiameterEnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)EnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)0182 0 232 01170 12 217 152130 52 165 66375 106 95 137EL8‐footdiameter 12‐footdiameter 20‐footdiameterEnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)EnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)EnergyUse(kWh/yr)Savings(kWh/yr)01532 0 2115 0 2698 011473 59 2034 81 2595 1042923 609 1274 842 1624 10743456 1076 627 1488 799 1899118Issue29:OperatingHoursforHigh‐VolumeCFsDOErequestsdataandinformationonoperatinghoursforhigh‐volumeCFs.Issue35:CFsImpactonAirConditionersandHeatingEquipmentDOErequestsdataandinformationontheimpactthatCFoperationhasontheoperationofairconditionersandheatingequipment.EnergyUseCharacterization119CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses10120Life‐CycleCost(LCC)andPaybackPeriod(PBP)•Purpose•Provideaneconomicevaluationfromtheend‐user’sperspective.•Life‐CycleCost(LCC)isthetotalpurchasercostoverthelifeofaproduct.•PaybackPeriod(PBP)isthetimerequiredtorecovertheincreasedpurchasepriceofmoreenergy‐efficientproductsthroughreducedoperatingcosts.•Method•Usepurchasersamplesdevelopedintheenergyuseanalysis.•DeterminetotalinstalledcostsforeachEL.•Determineoperatingcostsforfirstyearandlifetimeofproduct.•CalculatePBPbydividingaverageincreaseininstalledcostbyaveragedecreaseinfirst‐yearoperatingcost.•CalculateLCCbyaddinginstalledcostandlifetimeoperatingcosts.•LCCsavingsarecalculatedwithrespecttotheefficiencyofaproductapurchaserwouldpurchaseintheabsenceofanewstandard.Overview121LCCandPBP•MonteCarlosampleof10,000purchasers.•Low‐volumeCFs:•Assumedtobeusedinresidentialapplicationsonly.•RandomlyselectedhouseholdsfromCFownersinRECS.•High‐volumeCFs:•Assumedtobeusedincommercialandindustrialapplicationsonly.•UsedsamegeographicdistributionasCFownersinRECS.•Estimatedproportionsofcommercialandindustrialpurchasers:•Small‐diameter:80%commercial,20%industrial.•Large‐diameter:20%commercial,80%industrial.PurchaserSamples122LCCandPBP•DistributionoffandiametersusedintheLCCcalculation,estimatedbasedondistributionofmodelsonthemarketandmanufacturerfeedback.EstimatedMarketSharebyFanDiameterDiameter Probability(%)Low‐volumestandard44‐inch21.152‐inch72.560‐inch6.5Low‐volumehugger44‐inch46.252‐inch53.8Diameter Probability(%)High‐volumesmall‐diameter36‐inch33.356‐inch66.7High‐volumelarge‐diameter8‐foot16.412‐foot16.420‐foot67.2Low‐Volume High‐Volume123LCCandPBP•ELsthatpurchaserswouldpurchaseinabsenceofastandard.•Estimatedbase‐casedistributionofELsusingdistributionofmodelsonthemarket.Base‐CaseDistributionofELsELLow‐Volume High‐VolumeStandard Hugger Small‐diameter Large‐diameter03.3 3.2 25.2 8.714.9 4.7 24.3 34.8229.6 28.4 37.6 56.5358.4 59.4 12.9 043.8 4.3‐‐ ‐‐PercentageofeachELintheBaseCasein2019124LCCandPBP•Purchasepriceprovidedbymarkupsanalysis.•Pricelearningincorporatedtoaccountfordecreasesinmanufacturingcostsduetoproductionexperiencebycompliancedate(moredetailprovidedintheshipmentssection).•Remotecontrolcostaddedto7.4%oflow‐volumeACCFs.•RemotecontrolalreadyincludedinpriceofDCfansfromengineeringanalysis.•Salestaxdeterminedbygeographiclocationofpurchaser.•InstallationcostnotincludedbecauseitdoesnotappeartovarywithEL.TotalInstalledCost125LCCandPBP•Annualenergyconsumptionprovidedbyenergyuseanalysis.•ElectricitypriceestimatedusingdatafromEIA:•Estimatedpricebasedongeographiclocationandeconomicsector.AnnualEnergyCost126LCCandPBP•MaintenancecostnotincludedbecausenoevidencethatitvarieswithEL.•IncludedrepaircostforDCfans.•Includedrepaircostfor6.5%ofDCfans.•RepresentsthecosttopurchaserofhigherDCfailurerate.•Assumedfailurewouldoccurinmiddleoffan’slifetime.•Estimatedpurchaserrepaircostsfrommanufacturerfeedback.RepairandMaintenanceCostsProductclass RepaircostLow‐volumestandard$150Low‐volumehugger$150High‐volumesmall‐diameter$150High‐volumelarge‐diameter$1000127LCCandPBP•Estimatedlifetimeusingshipmentsdataforlow‐volumefansandagedistributionfromtheLBNLstudy.•Assumedthesamelifetimedistributionforhigh‐volumefans.Lifetime•Lifetimedistribution:•Minimum:5years.•Median:13years.•Mean:13.8years.•Maximum:31years.128LCCandPBP•Usedtodiscountoperatingcoststoyearofpurchase(i.e.2019).•RepresentstheopportunitycostoffundsusedtopurchaseCFs.•Low‐volumefansforreplacement•Assumedallfanssoldthroughhomecenterandshowroomchannelsarereplacementproducts.•Usedadistributionofdebtandassetclassesforpurchasingappliances.•e.g.,stocks,mutualfunds,savingsaccounts,bonds,loans•Low‐volumefansforinstallationinnewhomes•Assumedallfanssoldthroughwholesaler‐contractorchannelareinstalledinnewhomes.•Usedadistributionofmortgagerates.•High‐volume•Usedadistributionofweightedaveragecostofcapital.DiscountRates129LCCandPBPLow‐VolumeStandardResultsLow‐VolumeHuggerResultsELAverageCosts(2013$)SimplePaybackPeriod(years)AverageLifetime(years)InstalledCostFirstYear’sOperatingCostLifetimeOperatingCostLCC0107 17 182289‐‐‐13.81107 13 133240013.82107 11 117224013.83120 10 1042241.813.84149 7 722214.113.8ELAverageCosts(2013$)SimplePaybackPeriod(years)AverageLifetime(years)InstalledCostFirstYear’sOperatingCostLifetimeOperatingCostLCC094 15 159253‐‐‐13.8194 11 117211013.8294 10 109203013.83105 9 982021.913.84129 6 681974.113.8130LCCandPBPHigh‐VolumeSmall‐DiameterResultsHigh‐VolumeLarge‐DiameterResultsELAverageCosts(2013$)SimplePaybackPeriod(years)AverageLifetime(years)InstalledCostFirstYear’sOperatingCostLifetimeOperatingCostLCC068 23 208276‐‐‐13.8173 22 1952683.713.8275 17 1492241.113.83100 10 921922.413.8ELAverageCosts(2013$)SimplePaybackPeriod(years)AverageLifetime(years)InstalledCostFirstYear’sOperatingCostLifetimeOperatingCostLCC03814 221 20075821‐‐‐13.813801 213 19305731013.824063 133 120852712.813.835730 66 637636712.313.8131Issue7:MarketSharesbyELandProductClassDOErequestsinformationandcommentonthemarketsharesbyefficiencylevelforeachproductclass.Issue9:LifetimesofHigh‐VolumeCFsForhigh‐volumeCFs,DOEassumedtheproductlifetimeisthesameasthatoflow‐volumeCFs.DOErequestscommentsanddataonproductlifetimesofhigh‐volumeCFs.Issue10:CFUsageandLifeExpectancyDOEinvitescomment,input,anddataonCFlifeexpectancyandtherelationshipbetweenCFusageandCFlifeexpectancy.Issue11:RepairCostsDOEinvitescomment,input,anddatathatcanimprovetheestimateofrepaircosts,particularlyrepairscostsassociatedwithDCmotors.LCCandPBP132CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses10133•Purpose–Quantifychangesovertimeinproductshipmentsduetopotentialamendedenergyefficiencystandardsoveranalysisperiod(2019‐2048)–Estimatethedisaggregationofshipmentsintoproductclassesandefficiencylevelsovertime•Method–Totalshipmentsestimatedusingastock‐accountingmethodologycalibratedtohistoricalshipmentsdata–Modelaccountsforproductreplacements,newconstruction,andnewinstallationsintoexistingbuildings–Shipmentsdisaggregatedbyefficiencylevelusingaconsumer‐choicemodelsensitivetofirstcostforlow‐volumeceilingfansandfirstcostandoperatingcostforhigh‐volumeceilingfansShipmentsAnalysis:Overview134ShipmentsAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCFInputs&AssumptionsInput DataDescription/SourceReplacementsHistorical shipmentsfromApplianceMagazine,NPD,andEnergyStar.Retirementfunctionfromlifetime.New ConstructionAnnual EnergyOutlook2014,penetrationfromRECS2009ExistingBuildings EstimateofincreasingpenetrationfromRECSMarketShare Modelcountsfromin‐storevisitsand onlineretailers135•SectorUsage•Estimatesfrommanufacturersindicated≈5%oflow‐volumeCFshipmentsusedincommercialsector•Assumedsimilarusagebetweenresidentialandcommercialsectors•Analyzedalllow‐volumeCFsasbeinginresidentialsector•Marketsharesbyproductclass:•DOEusedshelfsurveydatatoestimateCFmarketshares.•DOEestimatedmulti‐mountCFsinstallationconfigurationusingresultsfromanAcuPOLLsurvey*.ShipmentsAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCFInputs&Assumptions*AcuPOLL® Precision Research, Inc.Survey of Consumer Ceiling Fan Usageand Operations. May 31, 2013.EstimatedMarketSharesMulti‐MountInstallationConfiguration136Issue5:MarketSharesbyInstallationConfigurationDOEestimatedthat21%offansarehugger,26%offansarestandard,and53%aremulti‐mount.DOEwelcomescomment,data,orinformationontheseestimates.Issue15:CFsInstallationConfigurationsDOErequestsinformationregardingthesimilarityofinstallationdistributionsbetweenallCFsandthesubsetofmulti‐mountfans.DOEalsorequestsinformationorcommentontheassumptionthat"close‐mount"CFsshouldbecategorizedas“standard”CFsandnot“hugger”CFs.ShipmentsAnalysis:Low‐VolumeCFInputs&Assumptions137•High‐VolumeSmallDiameter–Sameretirementfunctionaslow‐volumeCFs–Scaledshipmentsoflow‐volumefansby0.12assumingasimilarpenetrationincommercial/industrialspaces•High‐VolumeLargeDiameterShipments–Sameretirementfunctionaslow‐volumeCFs–Assumedlinearshipmentstrendassociatedwithnewinstallationsstartingin2000tomatch2013stockestimate.ShipmentsAnalysis:High‐VolumeCFInputs&AssumptionsIssue4:ShipmentsofHigh‐VolumeCFsDOErequestsdataandinformationoncurrentandhistoricalshipmentsforbothhigh‐volumelarge‐diameterCFsandhigh‐volumesmall‐diameterCFs.138ShipmentsAnalysis:SchematicReplacementsNewConstructionNewInstallationsRetirementFunctionHistoricalShipmentsAEOProjectionRECS2009TotalShipmentsShipmentsbyProductClassandEfficiencyLevelConsumer‐ChoiceModel139•Systematicdecreasesinmanufacturingcostsduetoproductionexperienceareaccountedforbyincorporatingpricelearningcurves.•Pricelearning(withalearningrateof6%)wasappliedtoelectroniccomponentsinDCmotorsusedinCFs.•AppliedtoincrementalcostdifferencebetweenDCandACmotor.ShipmentsAnalysis:PriceLearning140ShipmentsAnalysis:PriceLearningIssue31:DCMotorsLearningRateDOEadoptedalearningrateof6%appliedtothecostpremiumassociatedwithabrushlessDCmotorbasedoninformationfromatechnicalexpertforlow‐volumeCFs.DOErequestsstakeholderinputonthevalidityofthislearningrate,asappliedtolow‐volumeandhigh‐volumefans.Issue32:MagnetUsedinDCMotorsDOErequestsinformationonthetypeofmagnetusedinDCmotorsandtheassociatedcostofthemagnet.141•Theconsumer‐choicemodelprojectsmarketshareforeachproductclassateachEL•Consumerchoosesamongstsetoffiniteoptionsbasedonsensitivitytofirstcostandoperatingcost•Modelcalculatesprobabilityconsumerwillchooseeachoption•High‐volumeCFs:ConsumerssensitivetofirstcostandO&Mcost•Low‐volumeCFs:ConsumersonlysensitivetofirstcostbasedonanalysisofNPDdataShipmentsAnalysis:Consumer‐ChoiceModelIssue33:CFProductClassSwitchingDOErequestsinputanddataregardingthelikelihoodofconsumerschoosingbetweenoptionsindifferentproductclasses.142•DOEusesarelativepriceelasticitytoestimatedecreaseinshipmentsduetoapriceincreaseduetoimplementationofastandard•Sincelow‐volumeCFsandCFLKsareusuallypackagedtogether,DOEalsoconsideredtheimpactofaCFLKstandardonCFshipmentsShipmentsAnalysis:ImpactofStandardsIssue34:PriceElasticityDOErequestsdataandinformationtomoreaccuratelyestimateapriceelasticityofdemandspecifictoCFs.Specifically,DOErequestsconcurrentdataonindustry‐wideshipments‐weightedretailpriceandefficiencyandaveragehouseholdincome.143•Purpose‒Determinetheprojectednationalenergysavingsandconsumernationalnetpresentvalueofapotentialstandard.•Method‒Developannualseriesofnationalenergyandeconomicimpacts.‒UsetheshipmentsmodeltoestimatethetotalstockofCFsinserviceeachyear.‒Aggregatethecostsandenergyuseperunitinanygivenyear.‒ReportestimatesforeconomicimpactaschangeinconsumerNationalNetPresentValue(NPV)(inconstantyeardollars).‒Accountforthetime‐valueofmoneythroughdefineddiscountrates.NationalImpactAnalysis:Overview144NationalImpactAnalysisInputsInput DescriptionTotalInstalledCostPer‐unit annualweighted‐average valuesasafunctionofefficiencyleveltakenfromtheLCCanalysis.RepairandMaintenanceCostsRepairandmaintenance costsareassumedtobeconstantacrossefficiencylevel.HigherrepairrateforCFswithDCmotor.AnnualEnergyUsePer‐unitannualweighted‐averagevaluesasafunctionofefficiencyleveltakenfromenergyuseanalysis.Base‐CaseEfficienciesShipments‐weightedefficienciesdeterminedforthecompliance yearfromtheconsumer‐choice modelinthebasecase.Standards‐CaseForecastedEfficienciesShipments‐weightedefficienciesdeterminedforthecomplianceyearfromtheconsumer‐choicemodelforeachpotentialstandardscase.EnergyPricesAveragenationalforecastedenergypricesfromEIAAEO2014 forecasts(to2040)andextrapolationto2048.Full‐FuelCycle Multiplierfortheprimaryfuel (electricity)usedbyCFs.DiscountRate 7 percentand3percentrealfromOMB’sRegulatoryAnalysisGuidelineA‐4.PresentYear Futureexpensesarediscountedtotheyear2014.NationalImpactAnalysis145NationalImpactAnalysisμ(y)RF(y))AEC(y)(AECNES(y)stdbaseWhere:NES(y)=NationalEnergySavinginyeary(quads),andAECbase(y)=basecaseannualnationalenergyconsumption,consideringthefullfuelcycle,forallproductclassescombinedinyeary(quads),andAECstd(y)=standardscaseannualnationalenergyconsumption,consideringthefullfuelcycle,forallproductclassescombinedinyeary(quads),andRF= reboundratefactor=1‐reboundrateμ(y)= fullfuelcyclemultiplier•Nationalenergyprimaryenergysavingsiscalculatedusingthefollowingequation:146NationalImpactAnalysisPVCPVSNPVWhere:NPV=Nationalnetpresentvalue(2013$)PVS=presentvaluesavingsinoperatingcost(includingcostsforenergy,repair, andmaintenancein2013$),andPVC=presentvalueofincreaseintotalinstalledcost(includingcostsforequipmentandinstallationin2013$)•NationalNetPresentValueiscalculatedusingthefollowingequation.NPVwascalculatedusing3%and7%discountrates:147EL1 EL 2 EL3 EL4LV – Standard0.113 0.176 0.393 1.742LV– Hugger0.048 0.072 0.174 0.845HVSD0.173 0.392 0.745HVLD0.008 0.054 0.154NationalImpactAnalysis:NetFFCEnergySavingsEnergySavings(quads)148NationalImpactAnalysis:NetPresentValueProductClass EL1 EL 2 EL3 EL4LV – Standard0.701 1.003 1.228 3.185LV– Hugger0.296 0.396 0.529 1.757HVSD0.854 1.995 3.675HVLD0.026 0.170 0.166ProductClass EL1 EL 2 EL3 EL4LV – Standard0.278 0.386 0.325 0.249LV– Hugger0.117 0.151 0.136 0.233HVSD0.333 0.794 1.454HVLD0.009 0.055‐0.026NPVat7%discountrate(billions2013$)NPVat3%discountrate(billions2013$)149CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses10150PreliminaryMIA•Purpose–Themanufacturerimpactanalysis(MIA)identifiestheimpactsofenergyconservationstandardsonmanufacturers.•Phase1–DOEcreatesanindustryprofiletocharacterizetheindustryandidentifyimportantissuesthatrequireconsideration.•Phase2–DOEpreparesanindustrycash‐flowmodelandaninterviewquestionnairetoguidesubsequentdiscussions.•Phase3–DOEinterviewsmanufacturersandassessestheimpactsofstandardsbothquantitatively(usingtheGovernmentRegulatoryImpactModel)andqualitatively(impactsoncompetition,manufacturingcapacity,directemployment,andregulatoryburden).151Issue39:ManufacturerImpactAnalysisDOErequestscommentonitsidentificationofkeyissuesandrequestsdataandinformationfrominterestedpartiesthatcanassistinevaluatingthepotentialimpactonceilingfanmanufacturers.Issue37:RegulatoryFlexibilityActAnalysisDOEinvitesinterestedpartiestoprovideinformationregardinganysmallbusinessesthatmanufactureceilingfansandshouldbeconsultedbeforeDOEpublishesaNOPR.Issue38:ManufacturerSubgroupAnalysisDOErequestsfeedbackonsubgroupstoanalyzeand/orcharacteristicsappropriateforaseparatesubgroupanalysis.PreliminaryMIA:CeilingFanIssuesforComment152CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses10153Monetizationof EmissionReductionsBenefitsLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisRevisePreliminaryAnalysisFrameworkDocumentPrelimAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleAnalysesforNoticeofProposedRulemaking(NOPR)EmissionsAnalysis154NOPRAnalyses•LCCSubgroupAnalysis–Effectsonvariousnationalconsumersubgroups•ManufacturerImpactAnalysis–ContinueworkbeguninthepreliminaryMIA•EmploymentImpactAnalysis–Indirecteffectsonnationalemployment•UtilityImpactAnalysis–Effectsongenerationcapacityofutilities•EmissionsAnalysis–Effectsonairbornepollutantemissions•MonetizationofEmissionReductionsBenefits–Monetarybenefitsfromemissionsreduction•RegulatoryImpactAnalysis–Potentialfornon‐regulatoryapproaches155CFECSPre‐AnalysisPresentationOverviewScreening Analysis3Markups Analysis5Scope of Coverage1Energy Use6Market & Technology2Closing Remarks11Engineering Analysis4Life-Cycle Cost Analysis7Shipments; National Impact Analysis8Preliminary MIA9NOPR Analyses10156HowtoSubmitWrittenComments•Inallcorrespondence,pleaserefertotheCFrulemakingby:– EnergyConservationStandardsforCeilingFans;– DocketNumberEERE‐2012‐BT‐STD‐0045;and– RegulatoryIdentificationNumber(RIN)1904‐AC87.•Email:CeilingFan2012STD0045@ee.doe.govPostal:Courier:Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgram,MailstopEE‐2J1000IndependenceAvenue,SWWashington,DC20585‐0121Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgram,Suite600950L’EnfantPlaza,SWWashington,DC20024Tel:202586‐2945EnergyConservationStandardsTSDCommentPeriodcloses:November28,2014,11:59PMEDT157ECSPRE‐ANALYSISBACKUPSLIDES158Shipments159•Low‐VolumeCeilingFans–FitNPDdataofmarketshareasafunctionofretailpricetodetermineconsumersensitivitytoprice–Assumedconsumersdonotconsiderfanefficiencyinpurchasingdecision.•HighVolumeCeilingFans–Assumedconsumersensitivitytobothfirstcostandoperatingcost–Estimatedsensitivitiesusingfirstcost,operatingcost,andmarketshareateachELforHVLDfans.ShipmentsAnalysis:EstimatingSensitivitiesLow Volume HighVolumeFirstCost‐0.028‐0.033OperatingCost‐0.086ParameterSensitivitiesforConsumer‐ChoiceModel160–Priceelasticity(e)relatesdecreaseinshipmentstoanincreaseinpriceduetostandard–DOE’sestimateforthepriceelasticityofhomeappliancesisbasedonastudyofthepriceelasticityforrefrigerators,clotheswashers,anddishwashersShipmentsAnalysis:ImpactofStandardsBaseBaseStdPriceΔPricee1ShipmentsShipmentsWhere:=Shipmentsinastandardcase,=Basecaseshipments,=relativepriceelasticity(‐0.34infirstyear),=changeinpriceduetoastandard,=priceinthebasecaseStdShipmentsBaseShipmentsΔPriceBasePricee