Appendix J Model Performance EvaluationTABLE OF CONTENTS



### MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION.......................

**................................................... ....... 1**  **I. Air Quality Modeling ...........................**

**................................................... ................................... 1**  **A. Air Quality Model Configuration ................**

**................................................... ...................... 1**  **B. Secondary Organic Aerosols Modifications .......**

**................................................... ............... 2**  **II. Model Performance Statistics ..................**

**................................................... .............................. 3**  **A. 12km Domain Statistics – Selected Regions ......**

**................................................... ............... 5**  **B. Metrolina Nonattainment Area and Monitor Statis tics ...............................................**  **.......... 6 III. Spatial Plots ................................** 

**................................................... .......................................... 8**  **IV. Scatter Plots .................................**

**................................................... ....................................... 40**  **A. 12km Domain Scatter Plots – VISTAS/ASIP States Only...............................................**  **.. 40 B. 12km Domain Scatter Plots – North Carolina .....** 

**................................................... ............ 46**  **C. 12km Domain Scatter Plots – South Carolina .....**

**................................................... ............ 52**  **D. Metrolina Monitor Specific Scatter Plots .......**

**................................................... ................. 58**  **V. Time Series ....................................**

**................................................... ...................................... 67**  **A. 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – VISTAS/ASIP St ates Only........................................ 67**  **B. 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – North Carolina**

**................................................... ........ 73**  **C. 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – South Carolina**

**................................................... ........ 79**  **D. Metrolina Monitor Specific Time Series Plots ...**

**................................................... ............. 85** LIST OF FIGURES



### Figure J-1 CMAQ nested 12 km grid in the CMAQ 36 k **m grid. Lower left x, y of the 36 km grid is at -2736000, -20880000.....................** 

**................................................... ....................... 2**  **Figure J-2: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 24, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............ 9**  **Figure J-3: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 25, 2002 ......**

**................................................... .......... 10**  **Figure J-4: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 26, 2002 ......**

**................................................... .......... 11**  **Figure J-5: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 1, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............ 12**  **Figure J-6: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 2, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............ 13**  **Figure J-7: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 3, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............ 14**  **Figure J-8: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 9, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............ 15**  **Figure J-9: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 10, 2002 .....**

**................................................... ........... 16**  **Figure J-10: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 11, 2002 .....**

**................................................... ........... 17**  **Figure J-11: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 12, 2002 .....**

**................................................... ........... 18**  **Figure J-12: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 13, 2002 .....**

**................................................... ........... 19**  **Figure J-13: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 1, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............. 20**  **Figure J-14: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 2, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............. 21**  **Figure J-15: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 3, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............. 22**  **Figure J-16: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 4, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............. 23**  **Figure J-17: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 5, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............. 24**  **Figure J-18: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 6, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............. 25**  **Figure J-19: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 8, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............. 26** 

### Figure J-20: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 **-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**

**Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 9, 2002 ......**

**................................................... ............. 27**  **Figure J-21: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 16, 2002 .....**

**................................................... ............ 28**  **Figure J-22: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 17, 2002 .....**

**................................................... ............ 29**  **Figure J-23: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 18, 2002 .....**

**................................................... ............ 30**  **Figure J-24: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 21, 2002 .....**

**................................................... ............ 31**  **Figure J-25: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 1, 2002 ....**

**................................................... .......... 32**  **Figure J-26: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 2, 2002 ....**

**................................................... .......... 33**  **Figure J-27: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 5, 2002 ....**

**................................................... .......... 34**  **Figure J-28: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 10, 2002 ...**

**................................................... ......... 35**  **Figure J-29: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 11, 2002 ...**

**................................................... ......... 36**  **Figure J-30: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 12, 2002 ...**

**................................................... ......... 37**  **Figure J-31: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 21, 2002 ...**

**................................................... ......... 38**  **Figure J-32: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone**  **Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 23, 2002 ...**

**................................................... ......... 39**  **Figure J-33: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Scatter Plots For May..............................**

**................................................... ........................... 41**  **Figure J-34: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Scatter Plots For June.............................**

**................................................... ............................ 42**  **Figure J-35: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Scatter Plots For July .............................**

**................................................... ............................ 43**  **Figure J-36: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Scatter Plots For August ...........................**

**................................................... ......................... 44**  **Figure J-37: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Scatter Plots For September........................**

**................................................... ....................... 45**  **Figure J-38: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**  **May ................................................**

**................................................... .................................... 47**  **Figure J-39: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**  **June ...............................................**

**................................................... ..................................... 48**  **Figure J-40: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**  **July...............................................**

**................................................... ...................................... 49** 

### Figure J-41; 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( **top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**

**August .............................................**

**................................................... ................................... 50**  **Figure J-42: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 51**  **Figure J-43: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**  **May ................................................**

**................................................... .................................... 53**  **Figure J-44: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**  **June ...............................................**

**................................................... ..................................... 54**  **Figure J-45: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**  **July...............................................**

**................................................... ...................................... 55**  **Figure J-46: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**  **August .............................................**

**................................................... ................................... 56**  **Figure J-47: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 57**  **Figure J-48: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Scatter Plots For May Through**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 59**  **Figure J-49: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 60**  **Figure J-50: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Scatter Plots For May Through**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 61**  **Figure J-51: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Scatter Plots For May Through**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 62**  **Figure J-52: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Scatter Plots For May Through**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 63**  **Figure J-53: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Scatter Plots For May Through**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 64**  **Figure J-54: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Scatter Plots For May Through**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 65**  **Figure J-55: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Scatter Plots For May Through**  **September ..........................................**

**................................................... ................................ 66**  **Figure J-56: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Time Series Plots For May..........................**

**................................................... ....................... 68**  **Figure J-57: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Time Series Plots For June.........................**

**................................................... ........................ 69**  **Figure J-58: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Time Series Plots For July .........................**

**................................................... ........................ 70**  **Figure J-59: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Time Series Plots For August .......................**

**................................................... ..................... 71**  **Figure J-60: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom)**  **Time Series Plots For September....................**

**................................................... ................... 72**  **Figure J-61: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**  **Plots For May......................................**

**................................................... ............................... 74** 

### Figure J-62: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( **top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**

**Plots For June.....................................**

**................................................... ................................ 75**  **Figure J-63: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**  **Plots For July .....................................**

**................................................... ................................ 76**  **Figure J-64: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**  **Plots For August ...................................**

**................................................... ............................. 77**  **Figure J-65: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**  **Plots For September................................**

**................................................... ........................... 78**  **Figure J-66: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**  **Plots For May......................................**

**................................................... ............................... 80**  **Figure J-67: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**  **Plots For June.....................................**

**................................................... ................................ 81**  **Figure J-68: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**  **Plots For July .....................................**

**................................................... ................................ 82**  **Figure J-69: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**  **Plots For August ...................................**

**................................................... ............................. 83**  **Figure J-70: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series**  **Plots For September................................**

**................................................... ........................... 84**  **Figure J-71: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For May.............. 86**  **Figure J-72: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For June.............. 87**  **Figure J-73: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For July .............. 88**  **Figure J-74: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For August ......... 89**  **Figure J-75: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For September.... 90**  **Figure J-76: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For May.......... 91**  **Figure J-77: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For June.......... 92**  **Figure J-78: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For July........... 93**  **Figure J-79: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For August...... 94**  **Figure J-80: County Line1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For September . 95**  **Figure J-81: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Time Series Plots For May................... 96**  **Figure J-82: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Time Series Plots For June................... 97**  **Figure J-83: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Time Series Plots For July ................... 98**  **Figure J-84: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Time Series Plots For August .............. 99**  **Figure J-85: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Time Series Plots For September....... 100**  **Figure J-86: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For May........... 101**  **Figure J-87: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For June........... 102**  **Figure J-88: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For July ........... 103**  **Figure J-89: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For August ...... 104**  **Figure J-90: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For September. 105**  **Figure J-91: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For May.............. 106**  **Figure J-92: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For June.............. 107**  **Figure J-93: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For July .............. 108** 

### Figure J-94: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot **tom) Time Series Plots For August.......... 109**

**Figure J-95: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For September.... 110**  **Figure J-96: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Time Series Plots For May ............... 111**  **Figure J-97: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Time Series Plots For June ............... 112**  **Figure J-98: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Time Series Plots For July................ 113**  **Figure J-99: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Time Series Plots For August ........... 114**  **Figure J-100: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For September.... 115**  **Figure J-101: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For May........... 116**  **Figure J-102: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For June........... 117**  **Figure J-103: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For July ........... 118**  **Figure J-104: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For August ...... 119**  **Figure J-105: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For September. 120**  **Figure J-106: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For May........... 121**  **Figure J-107: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For June........... 122**  **Figure J-108: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For July............ 123**  **Figure J-109: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For August....... 124**  **Figure J-110: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For September . 125** LIST OF TABLES



### Table J-1: VISTAS/ASIP Phase II Initial CMAQ Model **Configuration. .................................... . 1**  **Table J-2: Statistical Metric Calculations........**

**................................................... ........................... 4**  **Table J-3: 12km Domain Model Statistics for 1-Hour Ozone.............................................**  **.......... 5 Table J-4: 12km Domain Model Statistics for 8-Hour**  **Ozone............................................. .......... 6**  **Table J-5: Metrolina Region and Monitor Statistics for 1-Hour Ozone ..................................**  **...... 7 Table J-6: Metrolina Region and Monitor Statistics**  **for 8-Hour Ozone .................................. ...... 7** **1** MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

I. Air Quality Modeling **The air quality modeling for the Charlotte-Gastonia -Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-hour ozone**  **nonattainment area (referred to as the Metrolina ar ea) was performed in conjunction with the regional**  **haze modeling being done by the Southeast Regional Planning Organization, Visibility Improvement**  **State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VIST AS) and the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and**  **ozone modeling being done by the Association of Sou theastern Integrated Planning (ASIP). VISTAS and**  **ASIP are run by the ten Southeast states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North**  **Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and W est Virginia. Since the regional haze and PM2.5**  **modeling uses annual simulations and includes an in termediate year that is the attainment year require**  **d for the Metrolina nonattainment area, the North Car**  **olina Division of Air Quality (NCDAQ) decided to use the this modeling for its attainment demonstrat**  **ion.**
A. Air Quality Model Configuration **This air quality modeling system used in this State Implementation Plan (SIP) modeling exercise**  **was the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA ’s) Models-3/ Community Multiscale Air**  **Quality (CMAQ). The configuration of the CMAQ mode ling system was chosen based on the results of**  **the model sensitivity testing performed in Phase I of the VISTAS/ASIP regional haze, fine particulate,**  **and ozone modeling efforts. This configuration of options is identical to those used in Phase II of t**  **he VISTAS/ASIP projects. The Phase II CMAQ configurat**  **ion is presented in Table J-1. The 36/12 kilometer (km) horizontal and vertical grid system**  **used in the VISTAS/ASIP Phase II modeling is displayed in Figure J-1.** **1** Table J-1: VISTAS/ASIP Phase II Initial CMAQ Model Configuration. Model Option Phase II CMAQ Configuration **Model Version Version 4.5 (September 2003) Horizontal Resolution 36/12 km**  **No. Vertical Layers NZ = 19 Horizontal Advection PPM**  **Vertical Advection PPM Horizontal Diffusion Spatially Varying**  **Vertical Diffusion KV (Eddy Diffusion) Minimum Vertical Diffusivity 1.0 m2/s**  **MM5 Configuration Pleim-Xiu/ACM No linkage of 5-day run segments**  **MM5 Processing MCIP2.2 Pass Through Gas-Phase Chemistry CB4**  **Gas-Phase Chemistry Solver MEBI Secondary Organic Aerosol SORGAM**  **Aqueous-Phase Chemistry RADM Aerosol Chemistry AE3/ISORROPIA**  **Dry Deposition Pleim-Xiu Plume-in-Grid Off**  **Initial Concentrations Default with 13-15 day spin- up**  **Boundary Conditions 2001 Seasonal GEOS-CHEM Emissions 2002 Emissions** **2**

Figure J-1 CMAQ nested 12 km grid in the CMAQ 36 k m grid. Lower left x, y of the 36 km grid is at -2736000, -20880000

B. Secondary Organic Aerosols Modifications **As a part of the Phase II modeling project, the VIS TAS/ASIP air quality modeling contractors**  **developed modifications to the Secondary Organic Ae rosols (SOA) subroutines inside of the CMAQ**  **modeling system to improve modeled particulate matt er and visibility performance. Since the modeling**  **activities in this SIP exercise took a “one atmosph ere” approach identical to that of VISTAS/ASIP, the**  **CMAQ SOA modifications are included as part of this ozone modeling.** **3**

II. Model Performance Statistics **To quantify model performance, several statistical measures were calculated and evaluated for the**  **VISTAS/ASIP states combined, for North Carolina, fo r South Carolina, and individually for each of the**  **Metrolina area ozone monitors. The statistical mea sures selected were based on the recommendations**  **outlined in section 18.4.1 of the USEPA’s Guidance On The Use Of Models And Other Analyses for**  **Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for O zone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze**  **(“** Attainment Guidance **”).**

**The statistical measures were calculated for both 1 -hour and 8-hour ozone concentrations and**  **based only on the respective portion of the 12km mo deling domain. A customary 60 parts per billion**  **(ppb) cutoff threshold was applied in the statistic al calculations. This cutoff threshold prevents ve**  **ry low ozone concentrations from being included in the mod**  **el performance statistics and generally prevents a widely known overnight over prediction of minimal o**  **zone concentrations from biasing the performance evaluation of the modeling when ozone concentration**  **s are much higher and of the most concern.**
**For convenience, these statistical measures or metr ics along with a variety of additional statistical**  **measures are summarized in Table J-2. 4**  Table J-2: Statistical Metric Calculations **Statistical Measure Shorthand**

**Notation Mathematical Expression Notes**  **Accuracy of Paired Peak**  **A p** 
peak peak 

### O O P

−

**Coefficient of Determination**  **R 2**  

# ( ) 

# ( ) ∑ ∑ ∑

= = =



### − − 

    

− −

N

i N

i i i N

i i i


### O O P P O

O P P

**1 1 2** 

**2 2** 

**1** 

### )

**( )**  **( P**  **i = prediction at time and**  **location i; O**  **i = observation at time and**  **location i;** 

### P **= arithmetic average of P i**  **, i = 1, 2, . . ., N;**  

### O **= arithmetic average of O i**  **, i = 1, 2, . . ., N;**  **Normalized Mean Error**  **NME**


# ∑ ∑

= = 

### −

N

i i N

i i i


### O O P

**1 1**  **Reported as %**

**Root Mean Square Error**  **RMSE** 

## ( ) **2 1** 

**1 2**  

### 1 

    

− 

# ∑

= N

i i i 

### O P N **Reported as %**

**Fractional Gross Error**  **FError** 

# ∑

= 

### + − N

i i i i i 

### O P O P N **1** 

### 2 **Reported as %**

**Mean Absolute Gross Error**  **MAGE** 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i i 

### O P N **1** 

### 1

**Mean Normalized Gross Error**  **MNGE** 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i i i 

### O O P N **1** 

### 1 **Reported as %**

**Mean Biased MB** 

## ( ) 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i i 

### O P N **1** 

### 1 **Reported as concentration**

**Mean Normalized Bias**  **MNB** 

## ( ) 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i i i 

### O O P N **1** 

### 1 **Reported as %**

**Mean Fractionalized Bias (Fractional**  **Bias) MFB**  

# ∑

= 

### 

      

+ − N

i i i i i 

### O P O P N **1** 

### 2 **Reported as %**

**Normalized Mean Bias**  **NMB** 

## ( ) 

# ∑ ∑

= = 

### −

N

i i N

i i i


### O O P

**1 1**  **Reported as %**

**Bias Factor BF** 

# ∑

= 

###         N

i i i 

### O P N **1** 

### 1 **Reported as BF:1 or 1:BF or in fractional notation (BF/1 or 1/BF)** **5**

A. 12km Domain Statistics – Selected Regions
**The statistical data calculated for the VISTAS/ASIP region, the North Carolina, and the South**  **Carolina portions of the 12-km domain are presented in Table J-3 for 1-hour ozone and Table J-4 for 8-**  **hour ozone. On the whole, all of the statistical m easures or metrics were within generally accepted r**  **anges for mean bias, mean normalized bias, and mean norma**  **lized gross error. There was a slight under prediction of 1-hour and 8-hour ozone concentration**  **s. This under prediction was noted in all months a nd**  **across the VISTAS/ASIP states as a whole and also i ndividually across North Carolina and across South**  **Carolina. The most noted under prediction of ozone was contained in the months of August and**  **September. In these months, the mean normalized bi as fell slightly below the suggested range of ± 5-1**  **5 percent. The NCDAQ does not believe this slight un**  **der prediction for August and September impacts the overall results for this SIP modeling exercise. In**  **all cases, the mean normalized gross error was significantly below the 30-35 percent range at the**  **60 ppb threshold for all regions. These 1-hour and 8-**  **hour statistical metrics were used as a first scree ning of the model performance.** 

Table J-3: 12km Domain Model Statistics for 1-Hour Ozone

Region / Month Modeled

Mean (ppb) Observed

Mean (ppb) Mean Bias

(ppb) Mean

Normalized Bias (%) Mean

Normalized Gross Error (%)

May 62.54 69.08 -6.53 -8.92 13.64 June 63.75 73.45 -9.7 -12.67 15.81 July 64.20 73.70 -9.5 -12.16 16.70 August 62.95 75.35 -12.4 -15.78 18.49 September 62.19 74.68 -12.49 -16.20 18.52 Mean (May-Sept) 63.13 73.25 -10.12 -13.15 16.63

May 64.68 70.24 -5.56 -7.53 12.74 June 63.65 74.39 -10.74 -13.97 15.89 July 64.54 75.51 -10.97 -13.71 16.61 August 62.34 76.92 -14.59 -18.24 19.59 September 59.83 71.64 -11.81 -16.08 18.10 Mean (May-Sept) 63.01 73.74 -10.73 -13.91 16.59

May 64.39 69.37 -4.98 -6.72 11.69 June 62.99 73.33 -10.34 -13.36 15.33 July 61.61 72.73 -11.12 -14.54 16.72 August 61.05 74.13 -13.08 -17.20 18.34 September 62.23 75.24 -13.01 -16.69 18.34 Mean (May-Sept) 62.45 72.96 -10.51 -13.70 16.08 12km ASIP States Combined

North Carolina

South Carolina 1-Hour Model Performance Statistics (BaseG2A - 60 p pb Cutoff)**6** Table J-4: 12km Domain Model Statistics for 8-Hour Ozone

B. Metrolina Nonattainment Area and Monitor Statis tics **As a further exploration of modeling performance, s pecifically in the Metrolina region, similar**  **1 hour (Table J-5) and 8-hour (Table J-6) statistic al measures were calculated for the region as a who**  **le and for each of the ozone monitors in this region.**  **In just the Metrolina region, the mean bias, mean normalized bias, and mean normalized gross error we**  **re all within recommended and accepted ranges. A slight under prediction of 1-hour and 8-hour ozone**  **was also observed at this more refined level of analysis and was similar to what was seen at the la**  **rger state and VISTAS/ASIP region levels. Individu al**  **monthly statistics are not presented here due to th e very limited number of modeled and observed data**  **pairs at just the eight Metrolina ozone monitoring sites. Whole season statistics were more represent**  **ative of how this air quality modeling will be applied in**  **the modeled attainment test discussed in Appendix L.**  **Across the whole season, the Metrolina region as a whole and all of the ozone monitoring sites had mea**  **n normalized bias statistics in the suggested ± 5-15**  **percent range and mean normalized gross error stati stics**  **in the suggested 30-35 percent range given a 60 ppb threshold.**  Region / Month Modeled Mean (ppb) Observed

Mean (ppb) Mean Bias

(ppb) Mean

Normalized Bias (%) Mean

Normalized Gross Error (%)

May 61.26 67.69 -6.44 -8.96 12.47 June 62.62 70.99 -8.37 -11.37 14.02 July 62.73 70.85 -8.12 -10.90 14.74 August 61.33 72.57 -11.24 -14.92 16.98 September 60.81 71.98 -11.17 -14.98 17.07 Mean (May-Sept) 61.75 70.82 -9.07 -12.23 15.06

May 64.06 69.05 -5 -6.86 10.76 June 62.21 71.82 -9.62 -13.03 14.47 July 62.94 72.10 -9.16 -12.09 14.63 August 60.60 73.92 -13.33 -17.40 18.34 September 57.90 69.37 -11.46 -16.11 17.68 Mean (May-Sept) 61.54 71.25 -9.71 -13.10 15.18

May 63.87 67.71 -3.85 -5.31 9.66 June 61.95 70.92 -8.97 -12.10 13.52 July 60.89 70.24 -9.35 -12.73 14.75 August 59.77 71.39 -11.62 -16.03 16.64 September 61.18 72.62 -11.44 -15.22 16.32 Mean (May-Sept) 61.53 70.58 -9.05 -12.28 14.18 North Carolina

South Carolina 12km ASIP States Combined 8-Hour Model Performance Statistics (BaseG2A - 60 p pb Cutoff)**7** Table J-5: Metrolina Region and Monitor Statistics for 1-Hour Ozone

Table J-6: Metrolina Region and Monitor Statistics for 8-Hour Ozone Monitor Site AIRS ID Modeled Mean (ppb) Observed

Mean (ppb) Mean Bias

(ppb) Mean

Normalized Bias (%) Mean

Normalized Gross Error (%) Metrolina Region 66.75 74.75 -8.125 -9.850 14.716 Crouse 37-109-0004 69.0 75.0 -6.0 -6.748 12.016 Garinger 37-119-0041 65.0 75.0 -10.0 -13.152 17.750 Arrowood 37-119-1005 69.0 74.0 -5.0 -5.901 14.137 County Line 37-119-1009 69.0 75.0 -7.0 -8.046 13.746 Rockwell 37-159-0021 66.0 75.0 -9.0 -10.930 14.320 Enochville 37-159-0022 68.0 76.0 -9.0 -10.229 14.488 Monroe 37-179-0003 63.0 74.0 -11.0 -13.436 16.347 York, SC 45-091-0006 65.0 74.0 -8.0 -10.356 14.922 1-Hour Model Performance Statistics (BaseG2A - 60 p pb Cutoff)

Monitor Site AIRS ID Modeled Mean (ppb) Observed

Mean (ppb) Mean Bias

(ppb) Mean

Normalized Bias (%) Mean

Normalized Gross Error (%) Metrolina Region 65.25 73.00 -7.875 -10.152 13.289 Crouse 37-109-0004 69.0 73.0 -4.0 -5.330 9.868 Garinger 37-119-0041 63.0 73.0 -11.0 -14.470 16.125 Arrowood 37-119-1005 67.0 72.0 -5.0 -5.837 12.249 County Line 37-119-1009 67.0 74.0 -7.0 -8.807 11.885 Rockwell 37-159-0021 65.0 73.0 -9.0 -10.989 13.322 Enochville 37-159-0022 65.0 75.0 -9.0 -11.790 13.710 Monroe 37-179-0003 62.0 72.0 -10.0 -13.097 14.958 York, SC 45-091-0006 64.0 72.0 -8.0 -10.898 14.197 8-Hour Model Performance Statistics (BaseG2A - 60 p pb Cutoff)**8**

III. Spatial Plots **The 12km domain spatial plots of modeled 1-hour and 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for**  **2002, with the actual ozone observations overlaid a re presented in this section. These plots are magn**  **ified or zoomed with respect to North Carolina. Only the**  **days used in calculating the relative reduction fa ctor**  **(RRF) calculation at the Metrolina monitoring sites are presented here. The first plot on the page is**  **the 1- hour maximum ozone, followed by the 8-hour maximum**  **ozone plot. The color scale moves from lower concentrations in shade of blue to warmer colors fo**  **r higher ozone concentrations. The scale loosely approximated the Air Quality Index (AQI) color scal**  **e for the 8-hour standard but was set to best demonstrate the gradient of ozone across North Caro**  **lina and Northern South Carolina, and to best highlight the range of observed ozone concentration**  **s. Overall, the air quality model does well with the s**  **patial extent of the higher ozone concentrations. The**  **model does slightly under-predict the 1-hour max an d 8-hour max ozone concentration, as was seen in th**  **e model performance statistic earlier in this Appendi**  **x. The plots show North Carolina and South Carolina’s higher ozone concentrations generally co**  **incide with the major urbanized areas and with the major highways running through the states. The urb**  **an core of the city of Charlotte, North Carolina is well represented in the air quality model. This is**  **important as the highest monitoring values occur at the**  **urban sites (i.e. Garinger, County Line, and Enochv ille).** **9**

Figure J-2: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 24, 2002**10**

Figure J-3: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 25, 2002**11**

Figure J-4: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 26, 2002**12**

Figure J-5: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 1, 2002**13**

Figure J-6: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 2, 2002**14**

Figure J-7: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 3, 2002**15**

Figure J-8: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 9, 2002**16**

Figure J-9: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1- hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 10, 2002**17**

Figure J-10: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 11, 2002**18**

Figure J-11: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 12, 2002**19**

Figure J-12: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 13, 2002**20**

Figure J-13: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 1, 2002**21**

Figure J-14: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 2, 2002**22**

Figure J-15: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 3, 2002**23**

Figure J-16: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 4, 2002**24**

Figure J-17: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 5, 2002**25**

Figure J-18: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 6, 2002**26**

Figure J-19: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 8, 2002**27**

Figure J-20: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 9, 2002**28**

Figure J-21: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 16, 2002**29**

Figure J-22: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 17, 2002**30**

Figure J-23: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 18, 2002**31**

Figure J-24: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 21, 2002**32**

Figure J-25: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 1, 2002**33**

Figure J-26: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 2, 2002**34**

Figure J-27: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 5, 2002**35**

Figure J-28: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 10, 2002**36**

Figure J-29: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 11, 2002**37**

Figure J-30: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 12, 2002**38**

Figure J-31: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 21, 2002**39**

Figure J-32: Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1 -hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone

Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 23, 2002**40**

IV. Scatter Plots **Scatter plots of modeled predicted daily maximum oz one versus observed daily maximum ozone**  **are presented in this section. There are scatter p lots for both 1-hour and 8-hour ozone concentration**  **s. As with the previous model performance statistics, sca**  **tter plots were created for the VISTAS/ASIP region of**  **the 12km modeling domain, for North Carolina, for S outh Carolina, and individually for each of the**  **ozone monitors in the Metrolina region. At the VIS TAS/ASIP regional and the two individual state**  **levels, monthly scatter plots are presented across the entire summer season of May through September.**  **For the individual ozone monitoring sites, only the scatter plots for the entire summer season are**  **displayed due to the limited nature of the dataset.**
**On each page, the top image is the 1-hour daily max imum ozone scatter plot and the bottom image is the**  **8-hour daily maximum ozone scatter plot for the res pective month or season and the respective region o**  **r monitoring site.** 

A. 12km Domain Scatter Plots – VISTAS/ASIP States Only **From the whole VISTAS/ASIP region perspective, thou sands of data points are presented in the**  **1-hour and 8-hour ozone scatter plots (Figure J-33 through Figure J-37). These data points include**  **modeled and observed ozone concentrations at numero us urban, suburban, and rural ozone monitoring**  **sites. Across this 10 state VISTAS/ASIP region, th ere are a greater frequency of urban and suburban s**  **ites represented in these scatter plots. Even with such**  **a wide variety of monitoring site locations, the m odel**  **and observed values tend to correlated reasonable w ell, as most of the data points are clustered along**  **the 1:1 line across the full range of data. The under**  **prediction of observed ozone concentrations previou sly**  **discussed in this Appendix is most notable in these scatter plots when observed ozone concentrations a**  **re in excess of 120 ppb.** 
**There are not any systematic abnormalities found in either the 1-hour or 8-hour scatter plots for**  **the VISTAS/ASIP region of the 12km modeling domain. This confirms the acceptable model**  **performance statistics presented earlier in this Ap pendix.** **41**

Figure J-33: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May**42**

Figure J-34: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For June**43**

Figure J-35: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For July**44**

Figure J-36: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For August**45**

Figure J-37: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For September**46**

B. 12km Domain Scatter Plots – North Carolina **The 1-hour and 8-hour ozone scatter plots for just North Carolina are presented in this subsection.**  **The North Carolina scatter plots for May through Se ptember are found in Figure J-38 through Figure J-4**  **2 on the following pages. There is a good mixture of**  **urban, suburban, and rural ozone monitoring sites contained in these scatter plots. With this hetero**  **geneous mixture of sites, the model and observed va lues**  **are well correlated and tightly clustered along the 1:1 line across the majority of the data pairs. U**  **nder predictions of observed ozone can be seen when obse**  **rved ozone concentrations are greater than 100 ppb and are most notable in the few cases that observed**  **ozone surpasses 120 ppb.**
**There are not any systematic abnormalities found in either the 1-hour or 8-hour scatter plots for**  **the North Carolina portion of the 12km modeling dom ain. This further confirms the reasonable model**  **performance statistics presented earlier in this Ap pendix.** **47**

Figure J-38: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May**48**

Figure J-39: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For June**49**

Figure J-40: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For July**50**

Figure J-41; 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For August**51**

Figure J-42: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For September**52**

C. 12km Domain Scatter Plots – South Carolina **The 1-hour and 8-hour ozone scatter plots for just South Carolina are presented in this subsection.**  **The South Carolina scatter plots for May through Se ptember are found on the following pages (Figure J**  **43 through Figure J-47). South Carolina has a slig htly higher frequency of suburban and rural ozone**  **monitoring sites. Even with a lower frequency of u rban ozone monitoring sites than across the**  **VISTAS/ASIP region or across North Carolina, these scatter plots continue to demonstrate very**  **reasonable correlations between model and observed ozone concentrations. Under predictions of**  **observed ozone can be seen when observed ozone conc entrations are at the higher end of the scale, but**  **there are relatively few observations of ozone that surpass 120 ppb where more notable under predictio**  **ns were seen in the previous VISTAS/ASIP and North Car**  **olina regional scatter plots.**
**There are not any systematic abnormalities found in either the 1-hour or 8-hour scatter plots for**  **the South Carolina portion of the 12km modeling dom ain. This further confirms the reasonable model**  **performance statistics presented earlier in this Ap pendix.** **53**

Figure J-43: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May**54**

Figure J-44: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For June**55**

Figure J-45: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For July**56**

Figure J-46: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For August**57**

Figure J-47: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For September**58**

D. Metrolina Monitor Specific Scatter Plots **The 1-hour and 8-hour ozone scatter plots for the i ndividual ozone monitoring sites in the**  **Metrolina region are presented in this subsection. The Metrolina monitor specific scatter plots for t**  **he entire summer season of May through September are f**  **ound in Figure J-48 through Figure J-55 on the following pages. Of these 8 monitoring sites, the**  **majority of the sites are either urban or suburban. With**  **a more urbanized observed dataset, the respective m onitor scatter plots show excellent correlation of**  **model and observed ozone concentrations across the entire range of data. Under predictions of higher**  **observed ozone concentrations can still be seen in these scatter plots, but these under predictions ar**  **e significantly less notable than in any of the previ**  **ous 1-hour or 8-hour ozone scatter plots presented in this**  **section.**
**There are not any systematic abnormalities found in either the 1-hour or 8-hour scatter plots for**  **the individual ozone monitoring sites in the Metrol ina region. This is a strong indication that the m**  **odel performance statistics presented earlier in this Ap**  **pendix are sound and that these modeling results ar e**  **appropriate for further use in the modeled attainme nt test.** **59** 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Arrowood

AIRS ID: 37-119-1005

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Arrowood AIRS ID: 37-119-1005

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure J-48: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Scatter Plots For May Through September**60** 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: County Line

AIRS ID: 37-119-1009

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: County Line AIRS ID: 37-119-1009

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure J-49: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September**61** 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Crouse

AIRS ID: 37-109-0004

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Crouse AIRS ID: 37-109-0004

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure J-50: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Scatter Plots For May Through September**62** 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Garinger

AIRS ID: 37-119-0041

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Garinger AIRS ID: 37-119-0041

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure J-51: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Scatter Plots For May Through September**63** 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Enochville

AIRS ID: 37-159-0022

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Enochville AIRS ID: 37-159-0022

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure J-52: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September**64** 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Monroe

AIRS ID: 37-179-0003

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Monroe AIRS ID: 37-179-0003

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure J-53: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (botto m) Scatter Plots For May Through September**65** 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Rockwell

AIRS ID: 37-159-0021

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Rockwell AIRS ID: 37-159-0021

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure J-54: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Scatter Plots For May Through September**66** 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: York, SC

AIRS ID: 45-091-0006

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: York, SC AIRS ID: 45-091-0006

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure J-55: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Scatter Plots For May Through September**67**

V. Time Series **The time series plots of hourly model predicted ozo ne (green line) and hourly observed ozone**  **(black stars) are presented in this section. There are time series plots for both 1-hour and 8-hour o**  **zone concentrations for each of the months from May thro**  **ugh September. Time series plots were created for the VISTAS/ASIP region of the 12km modeling domain,**  **for North Carolina, for South Carolina, and individually for each of the ozone monitors in the**  **Metrolina region.**
**On each page, the 1-hour ozone time series plot is presented first (top) and the 8-hour ozone time**  **series plots is present second (bottom) for the res pective month and the respective region or monitori**  **ng site.** 

A. 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – VISTAS/ASIP St ates Only **Overall the air quality model does an excellent job at capturing the diurnal pattern for both 1-hour**  **and 8-hour ozone (Figure J-56 through Figure J-60). The model tends to over predict the minimum ozone**  **values over the course of the May through September time frame, but this is expected given the well**  **known issue of air quality models generally not cap turing the absolute overnight ozone minimums very**  **well. This overnight over prediction of ozone is n ot expected to cause any issues with the applicatio**  **n of the modeled attainment test as these lower ozone co**  **ncentrations are not considered in this test. Ther e is a**  **slight under prediction of peak ozone values once y ou reach the core of the ozone season (June, July,**  **and August). Despite this slight under prediction of t**  **he ozone peaks, several high ozone episodes and the subsequent clean out events are well captured by th**  **e modeling. This is a good indication that both th e**  **meteorological and air quality models are represent ing the large synoptic weather and air quality patt**  **erns well throughout the duration of this summer season.** **68**

Figure J-56: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Onl y 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May**69**

Figure J-57: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June**70**

Figure J-58: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July**71**

Figure J-59: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August**72**

Figure J-60: 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September**73**

B. 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – North Carolina **From just the North Carolina perspective, the air q uality model continues to do an excellent job at**  **capturing the diurnal pattern for both 1-hour and 8 -hour ozone (Figures J-61 through J-65). As with t**  **he VISTAS/ASIP region, the model under predicts the pe**  **ak ozone values at times throughout the summer season as well as the overnight over prediction iss**  **ue previously discussed. In particular, a portion of the**  **month of May and the last few days of August and Se ptember show a more notable under prediction of**  **the afternoon peak ozone concentrations. Overall, the air quality model continues to capture the vari**  **ous synoptic weather and air quality cycles quite well**  **and is within acceptable tolerances for model performance.** **74**

Figure J-61: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May**75**

Figure J-62: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June**76**

Figure J-63: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July**77**

Figure J-64: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August**78**

Figure J-65: 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September**79**

C. 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – South Carolina **For South Carolina, the air quality model does an e xcellent job at capturing the diurnal pattern for**  **both 1-hour and 8-hour ozone (Figures J-66 through J-70). The model under predicts the peak ozone**  **values at times throughout the summer season as wel l as the overnight over prediction issue previously**  **discussed. As with the North Carolina time series analysis, a portion of the month of May and the las**  **t few days of August and September show a more notabl**  **e under prediction of the afternoon peak ozone concentrations. Overall, the air quality model con**  **tinues to capture the various synoptic weather and air**  **quality cycles quite well and is within acceptable tolerances for model performance.** **80**

Figure J-66: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May**81**

Figure J-67: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June**82**

Figure J-68: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July**83**

Figure J-69: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August**84**

Figure J-70: 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour ( top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September**85**

D. Metrolina Monitor Specific Time Series Plots **Finally, the time series for the individual ozone m onitoring sites in the Metrolina region are**  **present in Figures J-71 through J-110 on the follow ing pages. There are 8 monitoring sites with 5 mon**  **ths presented for a total of 40 pages of 1-hour and 8-h**  **our times series**
**As with the larger domain time series plots and ana lyses presented earlier in this section, the air**  **quality model tends to slightly under predict peak 1-hour and 8-hour ozone values. The over predictio**  **n of the nighttime minimum issue is more noticeable in t**  **he individual monitoring site time series, especial ly**  **this more urbanized collection of sites due to the higher night time nitrogen oxide (NOx) environment**  **found in such a metropolitan region. The NOx emiss ions titrate the ozone after sunset and the ozone**  **levels decrease dramatically. The air quality mode l does not replicate this type of phenomenon very w**  **ell. Again, the nighttime minimum over prediction is not**  **an issue with respect to the modeled attainment te st**  **and is not of significant concern in this modeling exercise. The ability of the air quality model to**  **very accurately capture the synoptic cycles from high oz**  **one episodes to very clean periods is best demonstrated in these individual monitor time serie**  **s. Based on all of the data presented in these tim e**  **series plots, NCDAQ concludes that the air quality modeling continues to meet all requirements for**  **further application in the modeled attainment test. 86**  Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005)

Month: May

Figure J-71: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For May**87** Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005)

Month: June

Figure J-72: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For June**88** Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005)

Month: July

Figure J-73: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For July**89** Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005)

Month: August

Figure J-74: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For August**90** Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005)

Month: September

Figure J-75: Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For September**91** Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009)

Month: May

Figure J-76: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May**92** Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009)

Month: June

Figure J-77: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June**93** Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009)

Month: July

Figure J-78: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July**94** Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009)

Month: August

Figure J-79: County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August**95** Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009)

Month: September

Figure J-80: County Line1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For September**96** Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004)

Month: May

Figure J-81: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For May**97** Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004)

Month: June

Figure J-82: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For June**98** Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004)

Month: July

Figure J-83: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For July**99** Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004)

Month: August

Figure J-84: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For August**100** Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004) Month: September

Figure J-85: Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For September**101** Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022)

Month: May

Figure J-86: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For May**102** Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022)

Month: June

Figure J-87: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For June**103** Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022)

Month: July

Figure J-88: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For July**104** Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022)

Month: August

Figure J-89: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For August**105** Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022)

Month: September

Figure J-90: Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For September**106** Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041)

Month: May

Figure J-91: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For May**107** Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041)

Month: June

Figure J-92: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For June**108** Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041)

Month: July

Figure J-93: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For July**109** Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041)

Month: August

Figure J-94: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For August**110** Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041)

Month: September

Figure J-95: Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For September**111** Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003)

Month: May

Figure J-96: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For May**112** Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003)

Month: June

Figure J-97: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For June**113** Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003)

Month: July

Figure J-98: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For July**114** Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003)

Month: August

Figure J-99: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bott om) Time Series Plots For August**115** Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003)

Month: September

Figure J-100: Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bot tom) Time Series Plots For September**116** Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021)

Month: May

Figure J-101: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For May**117** Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021)

Month: June

Figure J-102: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For June**118** Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021)

Month: July

Figure J-103: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For July**119** Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021)

Month: August

Figure J-104: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For August**120** Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021)

Month: September

Figure J-105: Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For September**121** Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006)

Month: May

Figure J-106: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For May**122** Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006)

Month: June

Figure J-107: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For June**123** Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006)

Month: July

Figure J-108: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For July**124** Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006)

Month: August

Figure J-109: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (b ottom) Time Series Plots For August**125** Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006)

Month: September

Figure J-110: York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bo ttom) Time Series Plots For September